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Alberto is here!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:20 PM GMT on June 11, 2006

Well, I'm back to blogging on the hurricane season of 2006 earlier than I had hoped. We managed to put together a string of nine straight days without an active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic this hurricane season, but now that streak has come to an end with the formation of Tropical Storm Alberto. I scheduled my summer vacation for the period I though most likely to have ten straight days without tropical activity, but the tropics had other ideas.

Alberto is a fairly typical-looking June tropical storm. The satellite presentation is not very impressive this morning, with most of the deep convection lying to the east of the exposed center. Strong westerly winds associated with the subtropical jet stream are removing the deep convection from the center. This wind shear is creating a very hostile environment for Alberto to survive in, let alone strengthen. With the shear forecast to strengthen, I would not be surprised to see Alberto ripped apart tonight. If this scenario does occur, the low level swirl of clouds associated with Alberto's core will drift into the center of the Gulf of Mexico and gradually decay. The main moisture to the east of the center will separate and get pulled across Florida. If Alberto manages to survive, a strong trough of low pressure moving over the Eastern U.S. will recurve the storm over Central and Northern Florida, where Alberto will rapidly lose tropical characteristics and become a very rainy low pressure system. Alberto currently has tropical storm force winds of 40-45 mph in a very small area to the northeast of the center. The central pressure has actually risen 2 mb to 1004 mb since 7 am EDT this morning, proving that this is not a healthy tropical storm. I give Alberto a less than 5% chance of making hurricane status. It is far more likely (40% chance) that Alberto will get torn apart by high wind shear before making landfall on Florida's west coast. The most likely scenario is that Alberto will hit the west coast of Florida as a weak tropical storm with maximum winds of 40 - 50 mph.


Figure 1. Estimated precipitation for Alberto from the Key West radar.

Residents of the west Florida coast should have little problem with wind damage or storm surge from this storm. The greatest threat from Alberto will come from its rains. Already today, the outer bands of Alberto have dumped over six inches of rain on portions of the Florida Keys (see Figure 1), and over 12 inches on portions of Western Cuba. These rains will likely cause localized flooding problems, but given that most of Florida is under moderate drought, Alberto may end up being more of a blessing than a bane for the state.


Figure 2. Current drought map shows moderate drought over most of Florida. The area Katrina hit is looking very dry as well, but let's hope they break this drought from something other than a hurricane!

If there is a significant change to Alberto today, Shaun will update this blog tonight (or I will, if I find another hotel with good wireless Internet, as I continue my drive home from vacation). Otherwise, expect an update on Monday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Alec
Micheal that was obscene, im spamming it
can you say dry slot? this storm is going nowhere as a tropical system.
please flag michael's last post as obscene, that kind of talk has no place here. Michael you have no class.
1005. Lefty06
confidential weather data? is it becuase alberto isa threat to national security? wow i guess they will be not sending any mnore public notices or vortex messages becuse storm data is confidential. or maybe there is some super cool spy satelite man that might be cool. or its alaser tracking device from space. "conffidentail" is awsme
Alright ya'll, I am going to get some work done on StormJunkie.com. Some minor fixes and what not. I think this thing is pretty much dead.

SJ
Forward speed seems up. Does anyone know or estimate the number.
Your one of those faking to be blind people, I have no change sorry.
test...i cant post
1010. Lefty06
ne at 9 or 10 mph bsed on the past 2 cenetr fixes
it's working fine Bama
Thanks Lefty
Alec,
Thanks for the response. My question is why would this information be confidential? Isn't the purpose of this blog to learn and glean as much information as possible to make informed decisions in possible life and death situations?
Hi Bama, Roll Tide
This radar link will show the most intense rain activity and general movement of the convection of Alberto: Link (Hopefully this rain makes it over Central Florida due to our slight drought here). I'll be back for the next storm. Enjoy the 11 PM update from NHC
This is the 'little storm that couldnt"
dang, Tampa is about to get a little rain!
1018. AySz88
Center reformed to the NE instead of moved, I think?
Canealum, try these
Models: Link

Satellite: Link
1020. Alec
This is why ST wont release his info(when I asked him):


Posted By: STORMTOP at 4:46 PM EDT on May 23, 2006.
BECAUSE I HAVE MY RESONS ALEX AND IF YOU CANT RESPECT THAT WELL ITS TO BAD..

Definition of Reson on the Web:

ant Converter - Switching converter technology in which a resonant tank circuit operating at very high frequencies is used to transfer energy to the output
And if you want the text model versions (They are put out almost immediately after they are run)

Link

Click on the date most recent (06061200) in this case: June 12 2006 00Z
yea alec that was back when that depression (at the end of may) was suppose to hit the gulf coast over the weekend
Thank you, hurricane79.
However, I have seen those. But apparently Stormtop has other information not privy to the rest of us. Was just hoping he would share where he found his info. Just trying to get all sides and opinions on this storm. But thanks again. Much appreciated.
Well obvioulsy you guys aren't used to it.
Actually I think that with the LLC finally moving to the ENE, the relative shear will lessen enough for the convection to make a run at wrapping around the center during the nocturnal convective max. But....it will not really come together, and just hit FL as a subtropical borderline TD/TS.
use to what?
I'll go out on a limb and say our little moment with Alberto is just about over.
NNE 8mph per 11pm advis....
Tropical Storm Alberto Forecast/Advisory Number 8


Statement as of 03:00Z on June 12, 2006



a tropical storm watch is in effect for the West Coast of Florida
from north of Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Tropical storm center located near 25.3n 87.7w at 12/0300z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the north-northeast or 15 degrees at 7 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1004 mb
Max sustained winds 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
34 kt.......200ne 150se 0sw 0nw.
12 ft seas..250ne 250se 0sw 200nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 25.3n 87.7w at 12/0300z
at 12/0000z center was located near 25.0n 87.8w

forecast valid 12/1200z 26.6n 87.2w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt...200ne 150se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 13/0000z 27.9n 85.9w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt...200ne 150se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 13/1200z 28.7n 84.2w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 60ne 60se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt...200ne 150se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 14/0000z 30.1n 81.7w...inland
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...150ne 100se 0sw 0nw.

Forecast valid 15/0000z 34.0n 75.0w...extratropical over water
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...200ne 150se 0sw 0nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 16/0000z 40.0n 63.5w...extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

Outlook valid 17/0000z 46.0n 52.0w...extratropical
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 25.3n 87.7w

next advisory at 12/0900z

forecaster Stewart


Number 8= new but 50kts?
Everyone has there opinion, sometimes people are wrong and sometimes people are right. It is all in the fun of tracking the storm.
Alberto will make it to Texas eventually its just taking the more scenic route through Canada first.

Those storms on the Yucatan are eating everything anyway. I see what yore saying now I just dont think there is time.

Some piece of rotation is probably going to Texas anyway like everywhere else with this thing.
ant Converter - Switching converter technology in which a resonant tank circuit operating at very high frequencies is used to transfer energy to the output


Responding to that comment Rays
1034. IKE
Alberto is on light-support and they need to pull the plug.

Where's ST???? He goes west????
Fun is not done yet, you'll see a burst before landfall.
storm is elongated sw to ne, looks like it is extra-tropical with little - to - no convection anywhere near the center, and is now entering an area of extremely high shear. No amount of wishful thinking on the part of those among us who are more enthusiastic will turn Alberto into an actual tropical system.
1037. IKE
Should have typed...*life-support*

Dr.M....hows about adding the ability to edit on here????
1038. IKE
Sweet dreams Alberto.......
From the PP Weather Office: There is an area of showers and thunderstroms moving to the West Northwest towards Brownsville, TX. Had to man lol. still respect your opinion.
the models have really shifted west since in the past few hours.....
1041. IKE
Just teasing ST. You gave it your best shot. This storm went about where the NHC said it would.

The "B" storm will be here before you know it.
i just want everyone to know nothing has changed in my prediction on alberto i expect him to stall and strengthen a little tonight...i also expect that westward shift im sticking to this and im serious about it...this is my opinion only those that were with me want to get off the train then do so ill ride by myself on this one just like i did with KATRINA...ill see you when things start to change sometime early in the morning..good night and have a blessed day like tony says...
just when you thinnk the convection is not near the center, here comes another pop Link
1044. AySz88
Discussion is out... NHC is still being bullish, I think.
Okay guys, I started posting a few days ago, and I said before I am about as ignorant on hurricanes as can be and I need some help: 1)The models have shifted West..WHY??? 2)What are Alberto's chances, poor little booger such a short life... and 3) Will there be any strengthening with this storm or is the shear too high???? Thanks for your oponions and help...
79 you mean there went another pop. It's long gone.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
IS A VERY WELL DEFINED WAVE FOR EARLY IN THE SEASON DEPICTED
WITH AN INVERTED V CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY

That is promising
ONCE ALBERTO TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO ABATE SOMEWHAT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE 24-36H TIME FRAME...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL... BUT NOT AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL MODEL.

Normal read this. That should help.
Jflorida, not in June.
1051. snowboy
Whoa, so where did that blob of convection near the center come from??!
1052. Inyo
anyone else not really like the new hurricane tracking graphics on this site?
Well I say this... I still think it will stall as well and I also don't think it is moving at 6mph... some of the models are west of Fl and I think we will know more tomorrow... Something just don't look right about it...
(my opinion)...

Taco:-)
The pop I meant is at 26N 86W, and it just showed up in the past 30 min
hmm taco, I think we will no less tomorrow :)
Thanks TampaCat5, that helped. I am not as ignorant as I made myself sound, just don't want to put out there like I know what I am talking about.. From the readings I looked at this storm should slow down as a result of the shear, but won't tear it down all together. A point to make is that it is such a lop-sided storm, if this was August and this storm was in that warm Gulf water, the question would be major hurricane or not, not what it is now.. "Will it die or not" CORRECT???
1057. Inyo
also, new INVEST in the east pacific
Link
Tampacat5>>>>>>>LOL maybe...:-)
TS Alberto = Thunder Storm Alberto
INYO, that looks better organized than Alberto... LOL
Normal if you have noticed, they have not been able to get a center fix all day today, well daym there has never been a center fix on this storm at all, just estimated fixes. Models are only as good as the info put into them, if that info changes all the time well, you have your answer. I would throw out all models from today and go with the offical forcast.
Yea HK I was thinking that earlier hopefully not too much. I havent seen anything on the storm surge but figure it is only about three or four feet??! guestimated from the buoy out in the gulf.
I find it humerous that everyone on here gets so disappointed when a storm doesn't pull a Wilma, Rita,or Katrina.. OBSESSED comes to mind, but I am on here too...LOL
1064. snowboy
convection now firing up the closest I've seen to the center - Alberto isn't a quitter..
PULSE, your right, no center since this thing started to evolve, a small semi-center yesterday late, but it dissipated.. I will take all the advice I can get. Thanks
Normal,
I was so dissapointed I turned on the sprinkler and fired up the leaf blower at the same time. WHAT A RUSH!
Where can I go to get the fastest updated loops?? Any suggestions???
1068. snowboy
am seeing the same convection hurricane79..
The hype for this storm was a publicity stunt for Al Gore's Movie.
Ode to Alberto (RIP)
Otherwise known as "The Party's Over"

It's the same old song and dance,
You're askin' me for a second chance.
I don't care, baby, what you say,
All I wanna do is gotta get away.

Been too many times callin' out your name,
You promised me, but you never came.
Was it, baby, all a game to you? Yeah.
After all the things that I've done for you,
Say your love, your love, could not be true.
I don't need nobody like you.

So turn out the lights, the party's over.
Turn out the lights, the party's over for you.
This time is the last time, never be a next time.
Tonight I wanna dance to a brand new tune.
Certainly wouldn't help Bush, he is sitting around right now trying to figure out an evac route for the Gulf of Mexico....LOL
LOL
StormJunkie.com NG. Find all the info you need here.

SJ
SJ, thanks, I have your site bookmarked from the other nite when we spoke..Appreciate your help...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 120306
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO... ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY
FLORIDA.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$




Normal, Bush set up a bipartisan commission including Ted Kennedy in charge of transportation and Dick Cheney to take care of looters.
Let's all share Alberto, a piece will break off and hit Texas, another will break off and hit New Orleans and of coarse one will head NE....but a little piece will be left behind..go south...go through the Panama Canal and move north and come onshore near San Diego....
SaymoBEEL, LOL, your right and Cheney has no problem drawing down on bad guys...
TAMPAJOE, Florida will get all of it..UMM even if that is considered a strong thunderstorm at that time...
See all think this is dead, it could brush CAT1 strength before landfall.

ONCE ALBERTO TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO ABATE SOMEWHAT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IN THE 24-36H TIME FRAME...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL... BUT NOT AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL MODEL.

Good pop up over the Yucatan....LOL
Big Mistake on all parts, look at last year.
PULSE, all kidding aside, teach me something can such a lop-sided storm really strengthen into anything.. I really have no clue.
Imagine if we all went to sleep and woke up to a Hurricane? It would be a nightmare scenario...remember Hurricane Opal? They said minimal intensification...went from Cat1 to Cat4....
It might not be dead - its done some strange things There still is some type of rotation its falling back to ROFLing?! Just kidding, seriously, it may still be up to something.
NormalGuy,

Last year Cindy made minimal hurricane status as a pretty lop-sided storm. It's possible here too - but very, very unlikely.
whoa.. possible 50kts by Monday evening..
Imagine if we all went to sleep... period. lol
What is the Knots to MPH conversion...Okay stop Laughing I told you guys I was ignorant on weather. Just trying to educate myself...
Well lets see 24 to 36 hours is 11pm monday to 11am tuesday I think there is a bit of time to see what will take place. Again I stress to prepare for a full catagory higher at least.
June is no time for a good organized storm. That's about it.
if you use google type "50 knots in mph" without the quotes. pretty cool
close to 60mph
i know NormalGuy was joking, but whats up with the big burst of activity around the yucatan? i'm by no means saying td 2 is getting ready to ride the gulf of mexico train, but its already dark over there. isnt it a little late for this sort of flare-up?
NG --
1 kt = 1.15mph
nah freak, just convergence related to alberto
Thanks TampaCat5...Got it
Knots = 1.15 mph. So 100 kts is 115 mph.
24 to 36 hours is 11pm Monday night to 11am Tuesday morning, don't underestimate. It is given it is heaing to the Tampa to Big Bend area and I stress to prepare for a full catagory higher that what you are forcasted for. Many in South Florida learned that last year during Katrina.
FREAK, I was semi-Joking, with my limited knowledge on the tropics, I noticed it and just put it out there to see if anybody else saw that, it is close to the tip, if it pushes north, then what??? Just tossing it out there, anybody wanna catch it and throw it back???
Flair ups happen often as the atmosphere cools and cloud tops are allowed to get colder.

There are some really strong storms along the trough that is moving down. wonder what happens when Al interacts with the trough. The dry air is getting pushed out to the N of Al pretty quickly.

SJ
sorry for the double post, this blog is needing an upgrade
Does anyone know why the NHC has no strike probability product on this storm?
Look at the northern Part Like earlier today? Is it going to shift north because something was under the shear again.
TampaCat5 - I was thinking that, too, but can you explain how...
1. its further away from the center yet larger than the other convection
2. it is spinning clockwise in relation to the center of circulation

just curious
/no meteorological training
Progressive the models 2-3 days ago called for a high Cat1....your right...Katrina in S Florida...Charley in 04.....Opal in 95...Wilma...I could go on and on....intensity is not their forte....
Good night. today was a good warm up for the season. It was good to see many of you all again. By the way, Katrina divided Dauphin Island into two. There is about a two mile stretch of water between Dauphin Island and Dauphin Island "West". I saw it for the first time last month. WOW
by the way, all you "tampa" people, where you from? im in new port richey, hidden amongst the retirees :P
It is kinda neat to see the storms over the yucatan flare and die in unison with the flare up at the eye of Alberto
It is not really spinning. There is shear that is pushing the tops of the clouds off that make it look like it is spinning the opposite way of Al.

That flair up near the center of Al is still growing. It could move a little closer to Tampa and then take a Northward jog before heading back to the NE. This may allow it a short window for strengthening. The new convection is just getting blown off like the rest of the convection. It has to wrap in order to be anything more then just a flair up.

SJ
I'm Near Oldsmar in Hills Cty...
Zoom in over the large red spot and rock the last four frames fast - Thats the new center of circ!!!!!
Link

IR2 easy to see rotation and Yuctan Pop.

Give me a 6pack of Yucatan Pop.
Where can I go to get a relatively new visible loop??
1117. BigBabu
BigBabu checking in from Land O' Lakes, FL.

A hard rain's a gonna fall.
PP what do you think? you were there
NG

Go to StormJunkie.com and then go to the Imagery section.

There is a lot more there also.

SJ
SaymoBEEL, correct me if I'm wrong but that pop over the Yucatan "almost" looks like it is trying to merge, or "Catch Up" with AL...am I seeing this right...
Just a side note, if you look at the big picutue, the stroms at the yucatan channel and all the weather from the south east is all a part of Alberto.
It looks more like the outfow from Al are what is shearing it. Very odd.

Sorry NG go to the Tropical section then Imagery
thanks Junkie, I am there now, looking at all of it..
That bit rotating in front of the red should collapse into it soon - if this is the same scenario
Or what PP said

what are the Tops at right at the center, if anyone knows, I agree with Junkie, looks like what little convection that is there is pushing up so far it overpowers the actual rotation, hence commiting TS Suicide, quick someone get the anti-depressants...LOL
No sweat NG. That is why I created the site:)
NG, I think SJ is right. But, it may catch up too. If we can get some of that rain in Mobile. My poor grass is THIRSTY.
what are the Tops at right at the center,...

I meant, what are the cloud tops at the Center, if there is one..>>
That flare of convection is in the E to NE quadrant of the center.
The center is south of Gulf Shores,AL. Is that right?
And I am going to be in the NE quadrant of my bed here, goodnight all.
Yea
Night Pulse
I haven't seen the white towel from Alberto yet, don't disreguard it.
Alberto is starting to remind me of a famous quote.

The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.
Mark Twain

Night Normal
Hey saymo people died in Miami because they were not expecting a catagory 1 hurricane. If that quote holds true, great, I am just as happy as the rest of them. I would hold the comments till after landfall.
LOL ya
Prepare for the worst. I meant Al's death.
1141. ndcohn
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/03:38:30Z
B. 25 deg 19 min N
087 deg 42 min W
C. 925 mb 732 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 161 deg 050 kt
G. 105 deg 115 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 22 C/ 760 m
J. 22 C/ 764 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF304 0301A ALBERTO OB 12
MAX FL WIND 51 KT SE QUAD 02:38:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

sry if someone posted this already
Solid TS force winds right at the center Ndcohn
is that the cent pressure??
shoot Radar!
C. 925 mb 732 m -- what's this stat?
Flight level Hayd
Hades that is
1149. cjnew
NEW BLOG UP!!!
51kts at flight level correct 10% at the surface would be 46kts, solid tropical storm. forcast to get stronger in 24 to 36.
What are the odds that the convection coming up from the yucatan can catch up to the center of Alberto? Is it possible it could strengthen it?
1152. cTampa
from South Tampa here- not far from Bayshore Blvd
what are you talking about ctampa? I live off bayshore by the way..
1154. cTampa
sorry jumped to new blog. freakster asked where all of us Tampa people were located.