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Alberto headed away from land; TD 2-E a concern for Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:07 PM GMT on May 21, 2012

Tropical Storm Alberto continues to struggle against strong upper level winds out of the west-southwest that are creating a very high 40 knots of wind shear over the storm. These winds are driving dry, continental air into Alberto, keeping its heavy thunderstorm activity quite limited. While the storm is being helped by the fact it is crossing the warm 27°C (81°F) waters of Gulf Stream today, this is not enough to offset the high wind shear. Small storms like Alberto are highly vulnerable to wind shear, and you can see all the dry air surrounding the storm, which the shear is driving into its core, on water vapor satellite loops. Alberto has begun an eastwards motion away from the coast, and will accelerate to the northeast later today and Tuesday as a trough of low pressure pulls it out to sea. Alberto has likely seen its peak intensity, and will not trouble any land areas. The storm brought up to an inch of rain to the coast near Savannah, Georgia on Sunday.


Figure 1. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2:30 pm EDT Sunday May 20, 2012. At the time, Alberto had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific TD 2-E may become a dangerous hurricane for Mexico
A more significant storm is newly-formed Tropical Depression 2-E in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico. The depression is taking its time getting organized today due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knot range expected along its path, TD 2-E should steadily organize on Tuesday and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning TD 2-E to the north to a landfall between Manzanillo and Acapulco, Mexico on Friday. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane for the Mexican coast.


Figure 2. Sunday's annular eclipse of the sun as seen by wunderphotographer mcgino in Polverada, NM.

Spectacular annular eclipse of the sun on Sunday
On Sunday, sky-watchers along the U.S. West Coast and in Asia were treated to a rare annular eclipse of the sun, where the moon blocked out all but a thin ring of light around the sun. Our wunderphotos gallery has fantastic collection of some great eclipse photos people took. Dr. Cliff Mass' blog has a nice satellite sequence showing the shadow of the eclipse affecting the U.S.

Jeff Masters
Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012
Partial Eclipse Olathe,KS 05202012
Wonderful evening to catch the partial eclipse here in Olathe KS
Solar Eclipse
Solar Eclipse
Awesome solar eclipse. Clouds cleared for a great viewing experience.
Oregon Annular
Oregon Annular

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Ok. My daughters husband is from Mandeville and we have friends in Kingston.
OK. Mandeville is a very nice and cool town...there are many Jamaicans living Cayman as well
Just checked the 18Z GFS. It shows a much larger time frame for lower wind shear from 48-96 hours.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just checked the 18Z GFS. It shows a much larger time frame for lower wind shear from 48-96 hours.


Any other models showing that trend?
well here is 36
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well here is 36


At that point, is the AOI supposed to be below the shear belt?
Quoting cg2916:


Any other models showing that trend?

Yes.
Quoting cg2916:


At that point, is the AOI supposed to be below the shear belt?

yep very much so
18z GFS showing what might be a sub-tropical cyclone by 168 hours in the middle of the Atlantic.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep very much so


Should be interesting to watch then. Trying not to wishcast, but it'll be interesting to see if anything spins up. Now if it could just close that low...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z GFS showing what might be a sub-tropical cyclone by 168 hours in the middle of the Atlantic.




Where is that coming from?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z GFS showing what might be a sub-tropical cyclone by 168 hours in the middle of the Atlantic.


So now the Atlantic wants to have Beryl and the C storm all form in May?.lol.
Even the WPAC is getting in on the action now.
Quoting cg2916:


Where is that coming from?

The low pressure in the Caribbean.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The low pressure in the Caribbean.


The CMC used to be Constantly Making Cyclones, now it looks like the GFS wants in on the fun!
what is that?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
18z GFS showing what might be a sub-tropical cyclone by 168 hours in the middle of the Atlantic.




Maybe this is from the wave that rolled off of Africa yesterday...

Quoting cg2916:


Should be interesting to watch then. Trying not to wishcast, but it'll be interesting to see if anything spins up. Now if it could just close that low...

I believe it is but just a little elongated and weak in wind speed in some parts
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Maybe this is from the wave that rolled off of Africa yesterday...


Nope it is from this. :P

look I see some white.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I believe it is but just a little elongated and weak in wind speed in some parts


It still needs to close that low, which, last time I checked, is still important!
Quoting cg2916:


It still needs to close that low, which, last time I checked, is still important!

true but shouldn't take too long
Quoting AllStar17:
Even the WPAC is getting in on the action now.
The tropics is fairly active after a loll in tropical activity
Cybr, do you think TD TWO-E is a Tropical Storm right now?
Quoting JasonCoolMan2000:
look I see some white.


NHC must be searching for that yellow crayon. I think Brennan dropped it after 93L.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Impressive. Earlier I saw a depressed center as if it was forming an eye or an eye-like feature. If this thing is a TD, then Alberto's the most beautiful, convection-filled storm to ever grace the Atlantic.
Oh boy.... Here we go again!
Quoting JasonCoolMan2000:
what is that? I see some big tropical wave here maybe tropical depression tomorrow.

oh no it start again now what it going to become a FISH STORM right
.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Cybr, do you think TD TWO-E is a Tropical Storm right now?
What's up Tropics?
10 "!"s and he's gone...
539. j2008
I'm back, just had to go make room in the troll filter. I'm almost sure that 2E is a tropical storm and Alberto is dead. I see reading back that most of you think the same thing......
You guys are doing good not quoting him.
Why TD2E ain't a named storm yet?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You guys are doing good not quoting him.


Generally the people who quote the trolls are worse than the trolls themselves. :/
Quoting nigel20:
OK. Mandeville is a very nice and cool town...there are many Jamaicans living Cayman as well


Most of my best friends are Jamaican, we live like brothers!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Can anybody honestly say they think TS Alberto is stronger than TD2 E right now?

Heck No!


WE ARE UNDER ATTACK! YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO!
Some A$$O always have to come along and mess things up!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


WE ARE UNDER ATTACK! YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO!

Attack seems like an understatement. Still, this doesn't compare to that monkey troll attack thing last year. That was horrible.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Attack seems like an understatement. Still, this doesn't compare to that monkey troll attack thing last year. That was horrible.


I ignored him and noticed the comments jump from 551 to 561. Wow.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Some A$$O always have to come along and mess things up!
Not really. Its more so everyone not shutting up about it. Its not the trolls fault its everyone else. Just press ! and ignore for the 10,000th time. Really just try. No joke.
yes got rid of that ignored user
well i guess its hammer time

wubot u here
Quoting cg2916:


I ignored him and noticed the comments jump from 551 to 561. Wow.


I just ! and - ed his comments. He'll be gone 10 minutes tops. Anyway, I just went to full Google Chrome, because Firefox has been acting funny and I've had enough of it crashing all the time. It's becoming almost as bad as IE!
It has always baffled me: Why do we get trolls on a weather blog of all places? It just seems kind of weird to me. =/
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Not really. Its more so everyone not shutting up about it. Its not the trolls fault its everyone else.

Uhh no, I'm pretty sure its the trolls fault lol.

At least nobody is quoting him, that's all anybody did last year and in 2010.
Umm I must of clicked the wrong link which way to the
Weatherunderground blog?
It's that time of year again...
576. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Attack seems like an understatement. Still, this doesn't compare to that monkey troll attack thing last year. That was horrible.
I remember that, sad thing is that i just noticed that the blog jumped 10 posts. Feel like were under an all out attack but that shouldnt stop us from discussing the tropical explosion. Felt like pointing out that this is rather a remarkable feat that is going on, this is may after all, we should have a nice quiet globe but instead we have 3 storms and 2 are possibly in RI. Impressive I think.
If anyone's blog is screwed up, just put Jason on ignore.
Quoting j2008:
I remember that, sad thing is that i just noticed that the blog jumped 10 posts. Feel like were under an all out attack but that shouldnt stop us from discussing the tropical explosion. Felt like pointing out that this is rather a remarkable feat that is going on, this is may after all, we should have a nice quiet globe but instead we have 3 storms and 2 are possibly in RI. Impressive I think.


I totally agree, the tropics are coming alive at just the right time!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Uhh no, I'm pretty sure its the trolls fault lol.

At least nobody is quoting him, that's all anybody did last year and in 2010.
Do you guys get what a troll does? He wants a reaction. What are you guys doing? Giving him a reaction. Hell I am doing it right now just responding to you. Post DONT FEED THE TROLLS stuff over and over again is just as bad as being a troll. You want to know why? Cause you giving him exactly what he wants. I am doing it as I type this.
A lot of dust over their right now

588. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hmm?

Does that......o my.....it does......It says TS 2!
when is NOAA going to issue their hurricane forecast?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
when is NOAA going to issue their hurricane forecast?


May 24th.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
when is NOAA going to issue their hurricane forecast?

Thursday.
#ihatetrolls
Quoting Ameister12:
It has always baffled me: Why do we get trolls on a weather blog of all places? It just seems kind of weird to me. =/
Its the internet. Rule number 1 of the internet. If you are on internet and able to get angry they will find you. And they WILL make you angry.
Plenty of upper atmosphere moisture though

Quoting j2008:
Does that......o my.....it does......It says TS 2!

And that means
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
when is NOAA going to issue their hurricane forecast?


They wait until the end of the season, basically. That way, their numbers are perfect. :-D
to #594 - 600

is that novel necessary?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I got banned for that
Quoting MississippiWx:


They wait until the end of the season, basically. That way, their numbers are perfect. :-D


well yeah... but I said the hurricane forecast
613. j2008
Quoting weatherh98:

And that means
They say we have Bud, or at least a TS haha...
Quoting weatherh98:


I got banned for that
Yah but that is only because we like Wx more :D.
Edit: But really guys cut this crap out with pictures. I am fine with a meme once and a while but the comment blow me. REALLY? You going to take that much blog space up just to say 1? In the future please refrain from wasting blog space by not posting a picture. We have a 1 button for a reason guys.

Edit2: Lol for some reason I cant post the plus sign. This website really needs to update its code.
Quoting weatherh98:


I got banned for that


? I was commenting on TD 2E/Bud. I think Admin is too busy with the real trolls than to worry about a post that might be 5% questionable....
WP032012 - Tropical Storm THREE

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop

..click image for loop

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


well yeah... but I said the hurricane forecast


Hehe. I know, I was just being sarcastic because NOAA waits so much longer than everyone else. It's not a bad idea, actually. They get to see atmospheric trends closer to the season. They also get to add storms like Alberto into their numbers. Cheaters, huh?
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...ALBERTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 76.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Please stop it with the images of plus 1. We have the button for a reason ppl.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...ALBERTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 76.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
It (Alberto) was good while it last
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 101.8W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY...
8:00 PM PDT Mon May 21
Location: 9.8N 101.8W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
639. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 101.8W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
I'm sure the NHC was just too lazy to make a whole new chart and map and update the site graphics so they decided to just reword the update...... JK I'm sure they have a reason that we cant see.
I bet that Cool Man named Jason will be the sole reason why the Devils will not win the Stanley Cup this year.

Silly troll, go eat a maiden. The only similarities between hockey and hurricanes/tropical weather is in Carolina.

That being said, apart from the storm below Cuba, I'm also wondering about the wave approaching the Lesser Antilles. The tropics could be running amok early this year, it seems, and the only thing that's going to keep the numbers down is the normally high sheer at this time of year.


bye jason
I'm going to have to go with this for now
though it is looking more promising as wind shear looks to be easing up a bit in that area right now.

An area of disturbed weather, associated with a trof of low pressure over the extreme western Gulf of Honduras, is causing showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf of Honduras, and portions of the W. Caribbean Sea. Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates there may be a very broad cyclonic turning at the surface. However, I am not expecting any development of this area anytime soon, as wind shear in on the order of 20-30 knots over the area. However, 3 of 5 of the Global models indicate development in the western Caribbean in as little as 42-48 hours from 06Z this morning. The GFS does indicate a closed low in about 30 hours, however dissipates it. This could be possible, however I have to rule out this development as of right now, unless the wind shear forecast changes over the next 24 hours or so. This area is currently under the outflow channel from the EPAC system, which does not currently favor development in the area. A more plausible scenario, based on probable reduction in wind shear, and rising pressure heights over the eastern third of the U.S., along with lowering pressures in the Caribbean/BOC would be what the GFS and ECMWF indicate in about 10 days…showing an area of low pressure anywhere from the BOC (Bay of Campeche), to just east of the Yucatan Peninsula.




They didn`t upgrade TD 2 because of this:WHILE THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS MORE
ORGANIZED THAN SEVERAL HOURS AGO...MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER REMAINS TO THE EAST OF A LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION.
SINCE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS
AGO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT. IT SEEMS PROBABLE
THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL SOON BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...ALTHOUGH
EARLIER ASCAT AND OSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS ELONGATED TO THE WEST. THIS STRUCTURE...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUATION OF EASTERLY SHEAR...COULD SLOW THE SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH
A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SITUATED NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...CAUSING SHEAR TO DIMINISH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS A
FAST RATE OF STRENGTHENING AFTER 24 HOURS...AND ENDS UP CLOSE TO
THE SHIPS MODEL AT 48 HOURS. BEYOND DAY 3...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
COULD INCREASE AND SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN...WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

And if everyone see the warning cone now it is expect to make landfall as ts not hurricane.
Wow, the Wikipedia page is already changed! Anyone on here do it, as I bet some of you may actually be involved in that stuff!

Link

I finally fixed my citation errors too, I think I'm getting to be a pro at it, LOL!
And this is intresting also



651. etxwx
Explaining uneven rise in sea levels
Excerpt: If there is a global warming trend, one of its consequences would a rise in sea levels, which will require massive mitigation efforts to protect coastal infrastructure; rather than a uniform rise in sea level, however, the records show sea levels rising in some areas and dropping in others; Harvard researchers offer an explanation for this phenomenon.
Link
I have a hot-of-press detailed tropical Atlantic blog update out...not much big news obviously with Alberto diminishing...but you can see what is going on in all corners of the Atlantic tonight thru this update....
Quoting etxwx:
Explaining uneven rise in sea levels
Excerpt: If there is a global warming trend, one of its consequences would a rise in sea levels, which will require massive mitigation efforts to protect coastal infrastructure; rather than a uniform rise in sea level, however, the records show sea levels rising in some areas and dropping in others; Harvard researchers offer an explanation for this phenomenon.
Link


Well they do have the tools right?
I just hope they arnt making ths stuff up for the grant money
655. wxmod
Jets polluting the sky over the Atlantic way north off Canada. MODIS satellite photos today.



Quoting blsealevel:
And this is intresting also




I don't know why there is such a good TCFP in the W Caribbean right now? The lowest pressures are to the NW of the Caribbean upper ridge (not under the ridge)....which places is it under hostile westerly shear on the north side of this upper ridge.

As to why the lowest surface pressures are there? Because that is where upper divergence is maximal...in branching flow between the Caribbean upper ridge and a SE US upper low.

I would like to see good pressure drops directly under that upper ridge before I would consider anything in this area.
673. wxmod
Quoting blsealevel:
A lot of dust over their right now




I was hoping I wasn't the only one noticing that.
682. MTWX
Very photogenic storm here at work right now! Unfortunately the camera is at home... :(

Got the tripod here, just not the camera!
683. txjac
Quoting MTWX:
Very photogenic storm here at work right now! Unfortunately the camera is at home... :(

Got the tripod here, just not the camera!


Where are you at?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Prospects are very negative against anything forming in the WCARB. This is a fragile system you guys are looking at, monsoonal circulations require room and growth with at least decent environment. 40kt windshear is sitting over it, and there is absolutely no model support to indicate that this won't just dissipate on Wednesday. Interesting to look at, but unlikely to mature into anything.
Definitely agree with you. There's zero model support, shear is very high and monsoonal circulations take lots of time. The area of vorticity - or at least a piece of it - is expected to get pulled out of the Caribbean, however, and could form into something off the east coast as an upper level low is also forecasted to get cut off by a building ridge over the east us placing it over this piece of vorticity. Chances of this happening at this point are pretty low due to a lack of model support. If anything comes out of it, it would be pretty weak, like Alberto.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Depression Three-W has an eye popping out on visible imagery. This is no tropical depression anymore either.

Where is the eyewall?

Don't confuse the center of circulation with an eye lol

Quoting wxmod:



I was hoping I wasn't the only one noticing that.


That will inhibit tropical development.... for the moment....
687. MTWX
Quoting txjac:


Where are you at?


Columbus, MS

Tried to get some shots with my phone, but I knew that was a long shot! Really need the exposure time!
Quoting TomTaylor:



Where is the eyewall?





Quoting sunlinepr:


That will inhibit tropical development.... for the moment....

Sounds typical for early in the year...isn't the SAL (saharan air layer) always strongest when the African Easterly Jet just begins kicking in when the sub-Saharan land is still dry and dusty?
Quoting TomTaylor:
Definitely agree with you. There's zero model support, shear is very high and monsoonal circulations take lots of time. The area of vorticity is expected to get pulled out of the Caribbean, however, and could form into something off the east coast as an upper level low gets cut off by a building ridge over the east us.


Where is the eyewall?

Don't confuse the center of circulation with an eye lol


That west-pac storm (Sanvu) looks really cool...wish it were in the Atlantic side though....
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I don't know why there is such a good TCFP in the W Caribbean right now? The lowest pressures are to the NW of the Caribbean upper ridge (not under the ridge)....which places is it under hostile westerly shear on the north side of this upper ridge.

As to why the lowest surface pressures are there? Because that is where upper divergence is maximal...in branching flow between the Caribbean upper ridge and a SE US upper low.

I would like to see good pressure drops directly under that upper ridge before I would consider anything in this area.

#1 upper ridge is located in honduras at around 16N 87/88W moving ENE #2lowest pressures are in the GOH near rotan hondurason caye belize
Quoting TomTaylor:
Definitely agree with you. There's zero model support, shear is very high and monsoonal circulations take lots of time. The area of vorticity - or at least a piece of it - is expected to get pulled out of the Caribbean, however, and could form into something off the east coast as an upper level low is also forecasted to get cut off by a building ridge over the east us placing it over this piece of vorticity.


Where is the eyewall?

Don't confuse the center of circulation with an eye lol


#1 there is somewhat model support
#2 shear is not that high at all and is falling
#3 yes monsoonal circulation but it is getting its act together
#4 I don't know about that one right now I give that a 0% chance but I give a much higher chance of the caribbean system cause something is curently out there and condition are better and expected to get even more better
698. JLPR2
Quoting wxmod:



I was hoping I wasn't the only one noticing that.


Come on dust! Give me beach weather! XD
Well, good night folks! I have now discovered the joy of editing storm info on Wikipedia!
Good day fellow bloggers!
XX/INV/XL
MARK
15.55N/82.33W
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

#1 there is somewhat model support
#2 shear is not that high at all and is falling
#3 yes monsoonal circulation but it is getting its act together
#4 I don't know about that one right now I give that a 0% chance but I give a much higher chance of the caribbean system cause something is curently out there and condition are better and expected to get even more better


They just messing with ya, everything you said is right, though I hate to agree because of the flooding here today and the thought of more to come, I feel bad for those affected by the weather here today, I understand some even lost there homes because of it! like they say " a rose by any other name is still a rose" Goodnight!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

That west-pac storm (Sanvu) looks really cool...wish it were in the Atlantic side though....
Yeah, don't know if we will get any significant tropical developments in the Atlantic for a little while. Ensembles aren't showing much over the next two weeks, but that could change and the MJO is very weakly in our area.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

#1 upper ridge is located in honduras at around 16N 87/88W moving ENE #2lowest pressures are in the GOH near rotan hondurason caye belize


This is what I used to find lowest pressure location...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif
Shows a 1010 mb center in NW Caribbean at the Guatemala/Mexico border. I will concede that the very new 00Z TAFB shows a 1009 mb center further SE toward GOH...which better matches your statement....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-ir4. html
During this animation...I clicked on HDW-high...which shows 200 mb out of the west....even over GOH. Therefore...there is still westerly shear over this area. Lets see if that upper ridge axis can lift northward directly over the GOH. If it does...we will need a sustained period of that upper ridge being over the GOH for development since low surface pressures are so broadly spread.
(click to enlarge)

706. wxmod
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Sounds typical for early in the year...isn't the SAL (saharan air layer) always strongest when the African Easterly Jet just begins kicking in when the sub-Saharan land is still dry and dusty?


As the Sahara expands, it seems likely that it will inhibit east Atlantic hurricanes more and more at this time of year. This year the dust storms have been blowing strong for a couple of months.
"The Sahara is currently expanding south at a rate of up to 48 kilometers per year."http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desertification
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

#1 there is somewhat model support
#2 shear is not that high at all and is falling
#3 yes monsoonal circulation but it is getting its act together
#4 I don't know about that one right now I give that a 0% chance but I give a much higher chance of the caribbean system cause something is curently out there and condition are better and expected to get even more better
The only model support is one closed isobar for one or two time frames and that is only on a few model runs. Shear is actually very high, 30-40 knots. Satellite presentation hasn't changed much.
02E/TS/B/CX
Quoting TomTaylor:
The only model support is one closed isobar for one or two time frames and that is only on a few model runs. Shear is actually very high, 30-40 knots. Satellite presentation hasn't changed much.

This is a touchy situation though...the low surface pressures have recently tried to collocate more with the upper ridge axis per 00Z TAFB surface map and 200 mb wind vectors.

But...I am still reluctant that the upper ridge will lift north and support development. Instead...I think the upper ridge will remain suppressed south by the big upper trough getting ready to move into the eastern US. Therefore...I am still thinking sustained westerly shear over the GOH....beneath a westerly jet S of the upper trough and N of the upper ridge....
710. wxmod
Near Fukushima power plant, the last 4 days of earthquakes 4 plus on the richter scale.

Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for TropicalDepressionAlberto for 22May12amGMT:
What was TSAlberto is now TDAlberto
MinimumPressure at 30.5n78.3w has been re-evaluated&altered from 1007millibars to 1006millibars

Its ATCF position was 30.7n77.1w
Its vector has changed from East at ~8.1mph(13k/h) to East at ~12.1mph(19.5k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds have dropped from 35knots(40mph)65k/h to ~30knots(35mph)55k/h
And minimum pressure has increased from 1006millibars to 1008millibars

For those who like to visually track TDAlberto's path...
JAX is Jacksonville,Florida . BDA is Bermuda

The northernmost connected dot is where NHC declared 93L to be TSAlberto
The westernmost dot on the longest line-segment was TDAlberto's most recent ATCF position
The longest line-segment is a straightline projection thru its 2 most recent positions to
its point of closest approach to Bermuda's southernmost point

The bent BDA dumbell on the eastern end of the longest line-segment is the straightline projection's closest-approach point connected to Bermuda's southernmost point connected to its airport.
On 22May12amGMT, TDAlberto was headed toward passing ~12miles(20kilometres) south
of SinkyBayBeach,Bermuda in ~2days8hours from now

Copy&paste jax, bda, 32.3n77.6w-32.0n78.2w, 32.0n78.2w-31.8n78.7w, 31.8n78.7w-31.7n79.3w, 31.7n79.3w-31.1n79.9w, 31.1n79.9w-30.7n80.1w, 30.7n80.1w-30.4n79.8w, 30.4n79.8w-30.4n79.1w, 30.4n79.1w-30.5n78.3w, 30.5n78.3w-30.7n77.1w, 30.5n78.3w-32.07n64.836w, bda-32.247n64.836w-32.07n64.836w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for comparison.
Quoting stormpetrol:


They just messing with ya, everything you said is right, though I hate to agree because of the flooding here today and the thought of more to come, I feel bad for those affected by the weather here today, I understand some even lost there homes because of it! like they say " a rose by any other name is still a rose" Goodnight!

ok goodnight se you in the morning
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


This is what I used to find lowest pressure location...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif
Shows a 1010 mb center in NW Caribbean at the Guatemala/Mexico border. I will concede that the very new 00Z TAFB shows a 1009 mb center further SE toward GOH...which better matches your statement....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-ir4. html
During this animation...I clicked on HDW-high...which shows 200 mb out of the west....even over GOH. Therefore...there is still westerly shear over this area. Lets see if that upper ridge axis can lift northward directly over the GOH. If it does...we will need a sustained period of that upper ridge being over the GOH for development since low surface pressures are so broadly spread.


I sometimes use the surface map but I ussally use the surface obs

maybe yes the 200mb winds are out of the W be the speed is falling and the ridge will move over into the GOH and also pressures are not so broad as you may think 1009mb or less is mainly confined to the GOH
711 Skyepony: More back lash from Ike. The whole TX rolling easement maybe dead...

Absolutely A B S U R D .
By those two AppealsCourt judges' sort of "reasoning"...
Even if GalvestonIsland were to be washed away to the point that all of the land were completely under the low-tide line, the government wouldn't be allowed to clear away debris for boat traffic.
...ie not without first purchasing the "property"s from their "owner"s, or at least first compensating those "owner"s for permission to clear away the debris. It ain't like folks are gonna give permission for free when they can squeeze money outta the government.
shear is not high right now the LLCOC in the GOH is under 15Kt shear which is expected to drop down to abot 5-10kt
Quoting wxmod:
Near Fukushima power plant, the last 4 days of earthquakes 4 plus on the richter scale.



Arnie Gundersen, Fairewinds Chief Nuclear Engineer:

Unit 4 is weakened I think about a M7.0-M7.5 quake will knock that building to the ground

The fuel is still hot enough where it can begin to burn cesium and plutonium and all that

It would volatilize as the fuel burns, it creates a pyrophoric fire which is a fire that water cannot put out.

Likely resulting in an evacuation of Tokyo at the least, and potentially contamination of the entire northern hemisphere.

[...] Experts from around the world are becoming increasingly concerned about the state of the No. 4 reactor building. [...]

Mitsuhei Murata, former ambassador to Switzerland, also told an Upper House hearing in March that another accident at the reactor building could cause the final catastrophe of the world. [...]

-------------------------

Arnie Gundersen, Fairewinds Chief Nuclear Engineer: This is the sleeper as far as Im concerned.

Unit 3 has about half the nuclear fuel in its pool than Unit 4 does.

Some of it is still quite hot.

It had been removed about 6 months before the meltdowns.

So it has a hot enough quarter of a core that it could burn in air.

And of course the Unit 3 building is fatally flawed.

So my concern is the same problem on Unit 4 could occur on Unit 3, we seem to just worry about Unit 4.
Chairman Of N.R.C. To Resign Under Fire
By JOHN M. BRODER and MATTHEW L. WALD
Published: May 21, 2012

WASHINGTON — Gregory B. Jaczko, whose three-year tenure as chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been marked by bitter battles with colleagues and with Congress, announced Monday that he would step down as soon as a successor was confirmed.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/22/us/gregory-jacz ko-to-resign-as-nrc-chairman-after-stormy-tenure.h tml?_r=2
GOM-WV LOOP

Too much shear and dry air for anything to get going right now, maybe this weekend or next week.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
GOM-WV LOOP

Too much shear and dry air for anything to get going right now, maybe this weekend or next week.


Alberto was a fluke. The westerlies are still very much in control.
718 sunlinepr: NuclearRegulatoryCommission Chairman to Resign under Fire

And a Bloomberg link for those who care about how many times per month they click NYTimes link.
Morning Night shift!! Coffee is ready!!
Quoting traumaboyy:
Morning Night shift!! Coffee is ready!!


Pretty sure I'm the only one still up.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM SANVU (T1202)
15:00 PM JST May 22 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Marianas

From Tiyan, Guam NWS
----------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanvu (1002 hPa) located at 13.9N 143.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 15.6N 140.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 18.0N 139.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 20.7N 139.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
getting clearer in the caribbean. mite see the next name storm soon.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Pretty sure I'm the only one still up.



How's things over around NOLA??
Quoting traumaboyy:



How's things over around NOLA??


Hot and humid, afternoon storms. Typical Louisiana weather. How about your area?
Quoting traumaboyy:
Morning Night shift!! Coffee is ready!!
Wow... howarya, trauma? Long time no see over the 2 a.m. coffee...

Quoting KoritheMan:


Pretty sure I'm the only one still up.

I'm still around, just lurking, not posting.
This is interesting.



Are my eye's deceiving me, but do I see some spin?
I'm always lurking. ;)
Whatup Baha!!

Bout the same here Kori....Lots of static and some rain..Had a severe TS kick up Tuesday....took down two Pecan Trees on our property. Thought that was interesting as those trees have been there for over a hundred years.
Quoting AussieStorm:
This is interesting.



Are my eye's deceiving me, but do I see some spin?


It looks to have some decent low/low-mid level twist:

850mb


700mb


500mb
We have Bud!!

40mph, 1004mb

Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for TropicalDepressionAlberto for 22May6amGMT:
Its ATCF position was 31.6n76.1w
Its vector has changed from East at ~12.1mph(19.5k/h) to NEast at ~14.2mph(23k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds have held steady ~30knots(35mph)55k/h
And minimum pressure has held steady at 1008millibars

If its travel-speed continues to make up such a large fraction of its MaxSusWinds speed, TDAlbert will probably be gone later today.

For those who like to visually track TDAlberto's path...
JAX is Jacksonville,Florida . HNC is CapeHatteras,NorthCarolina . 26N is OceanCity,NewJersey

The northernmost dot on the line is where NHC declared 93L to be TSAlberto
The southernmost dot on the line is where TSAlberto became TDAlberto
The easternmost dot on the next line-segment was TDAlberto's most recent ATCF position

Copy&paste jax, hnc, 26n, 32.3n77.6w, 32.0n78.2w, 31.8n78.7w, 31.7n79.3w, 31.1n79.9w, 30.7n80.1w-30.4n79.8w, 30.4n79.1w, 30.5n78.3w,30.7n77.1w, 30.7n77.1w-31.6n76.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
The previous mapping for comparison.
shear in the GOH is droping now down between 5-20kt however northern NW caribbean area is still under 30-60kt shear but that is pushing further N and shear is forecasted to ease up in the NW carib in 12 hours maybe be less the strongest area of vort at 950 is near the blob in the GOH in the blob shows good circulation via sattelite and radar
Hey, bud! Yes, it means all of you here and that one heck of a tropical storm.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Its the internet. Rule number 1 of the internet. If you are on internet and able to get angry they will find you. And they WILL make you angry.

Rule 1 of the internet: Do not talk about /-/
Good Morning Bud... Nice to have you this morning
Quoting LargoFl:
..................................Good morning folks,another hot and sunny day here in florida, have a great day
NW Caribbean a bit more interesting this morning. The low there has gotten better organized, but still needs to show persistent convection before it can be considered a threat for development
Quoting LargoFl:

wow TS soon to come


Morning everyone... Bud is slowly but steadily coming together:

so I say yellow circle today
Extreme Southwest fire danger tomorrow

TS Sanvu

Why settle for Bud when ya can have a Corona?
Quoting aspectre:
Why settle for Bud when ya can have a Corona?

na I find corona is and going to be like mexican piss with out salt and lime but can't wait till reach millier may it will be a cat 5 full of bold crisp tast

Skies over McAllen,Texas -- Delcia Lopez for The Monitor (Larger version)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

once that blob to the south near Hon/Nic moves NW to the GOH system and that one just NW of Grand Cayman Island expands and moves S-SW the system will beast out
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

once that blob to the south near Hon/Nic moves NW to the GOH system and that one just NW of Grand Cayman Island expands and moves S-SW the system will beast out
How can you think that two areas from the same disturbance can move in different directions ? Convection might increase to the SW or NW as you say but the areas of convection don't move.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
How can you think that two areas from the same disturbance can move in different directions ? Convection might increase to the SW or NW as you say but the areas of convection don't move.

ok stormwatcher come and meet me on next blog
Ok Bud I see you