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Alberto brings beneficial rains, modest damage

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:19 PM GMT on June 13, 2006

Alberto made landfall at 12:45pm Tuesday near Adams Beach, Florida, about 50 miles (80 kilometers) south of Tallahassee. Alberto had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph at landfall, and brought a storm surge of up to 5 feet near Cedar Key. No major flooding damage has been reported, however. Power outages to 21,000 people have occurred, and tree damage appears to be the predominant problem from the storm. No tornadoes have occurred today in Florida, but there have been several tornado reports from Georgia and South Carolina, including a report of a tornado on the ground at Beaufort Marine Base in South Carolina.

Alberto will weaken to a tropical depression as it crosses Georgia tonight. The storm will likely be declared extratropical on Wednesday, when it emerges into the Atlantic Ocean. The remains of Alberto should then reintensify some as a non-tropical low pressure system over the open Atlantic Ocean, where it will only be of concern to shipping.


Figure 1. Total rain from Alberto estimated by Doppler radar.

It appears now that Alberto may save millions of dollars in agricultural losses and firefighting expenses due to the heavy rains it has brought to drought-parched Florida. Several of the over 100 fires burning in Florida have already been extinguished by Alberto's rains.

Tomorrow, I'll analyze Alberto's sudden burst of intensification Monday morning, and report on what the rest of June may hold for us. It could be an exceptionally active June.

Jeff Masters
Alberto Rain
Alberto Rain
Bands of rain continue to push through our area raising whitecaps on Lake Minneola.
Picnic anyone
Picnic anyone
Driving through town i found the gulf a little closer than usual. This is someones front yard.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

What will the effect be in coastal NC? How much rain? We cant handle much more where I live.
Ok the local weathermans model takes it off the coast of NC/SC and makes it a ts again. Could that happen?
The model is called microcast.
Good to hear that some of the fires are out.
Just out of curiosity read accuweather's forecast. The landfall area is the low strike zone for Bastardi and his team. Clearly mistaken. Check it out here
Just over 5 inches of rain at my house! Woot! :)
The graphic I'm talking about is here
What is everyones take on the wave moving into or already in the craibbean??
Thats funny first storm of the year hits the lowest area according to accuweather.
Well, everyone is wrong sometimes. Besides, that graphic was not saying that that area would not have a tropical system. It simply said that they felt the area was at a low risk of seeing anything.
And they were obviously wrong.
How active do some of you think June is going to be? Dr. Master's seems to think it will be more active than normal.
I just read that NHC Tropical Discussion and noticed that they took the time to talk about 3 tropical waves. As I have said before I am new at this hobby and need some help. With all of your expertise combined give me some ideas what are some things to look for with waves as keys that they are trying to materialize?? Any help would be great. I am trying to learn as I go. Also if you could point out which ones are worth watching right now???
I don't think we will have more than 4 storms before August.
In the Tropical Discussion, they mention every wave that is out there.
NormalGuy

I am forever new at this hobby, but one thing I saw someone post earlier to look for is banding in the systems, even though it doesnt look like a hurricane or TS if it has banding (like the "feeder bands" you always see in 'canes) that is one factor that shows it is building.
if ANY forcaster is even 50% accurate for a lifetime of predicting... thats impressive..

these arent PSYCHICS... lol show me ONE perfect weather forcaster...ever... or one thats even close


now granted .. some are better than others .. but it's a imperfect science.. to say the least
Interesting, Louastu, so you think our busy time will be after August and during the typical busy time of September? Remember last year we had for storms by the 10th of July when Dennis came in. Why do you think no more than 4 before August? Just looking for opinions.
Persistant positive PNA breaks down...Atlantic opening for business.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR JUN 19 - 23 2006

TODAYS 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD COMPARED TO THE ANALOGOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY. TODAYS CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS ALSO IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE 0Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.[...]
[...]TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE NATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AS HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE OVER FLORIDA WHERE ANOMOUSLY EASTERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE...

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 27 2006:

FOR WEEK 2 THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO THE
EXPECTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FROM THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE... WITH WEAKNESSES NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND OVER OR EAST OF FLORIDA... IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS... A TROUGH IS FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST... WHILE A ZONALLY ORIENTED JETSTREAM IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.[...]
Normalguy. Usually you'll hear about a wave or a "disturbance" here on the blogs first. When the NHC starts talking about them in their discussions is when I usually start taking note. Another interesting thing is to go to some of the computer models that go out 5 plus days and see how they play it.
"Tomorrow, I'll analyze Alberto's sudden burst of intensification Monday morning, and report on what the rest of June may hold for us. It could be an exceptionally active June."

Naw, really, ya think? :-P
Hey Houstonian,
I wish I was a weatherman. How many times can a person be wrong in his/her career and still keep their job? lol
Just thought I'd post this on Jeff's new blog from the old one:

Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 9:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2006.
That wave looks like it has potential. How are the models playing it?
Report As: Obscene | Spam | Copyright

Posted By: quakeman55 at 9:41 PM GMT on June 13, 2006.
Well the CMC 00Z model run forms something around central Cuba and moves it westward into the Gulf and turns it towards Louisiana. (You can see that too in the 12Z run, but for some reason it only goes up to 72h so you can't see the full run of it.) And, of course, the CMC was the first to pick up on Alberto's formation...

It's a good thing that doctors and pilots have a better than 50% lifetime average.
I am really just guessing that we won't have more than 4 storms before August.
if a poker player wins 50% of the time for a lifetime of poker hes RICH..
SWLA Storm Fanatic...
What's a good site to go to so I can look at the 5 day + computer models of upcoming "disturbances"?
Norm, what I first do is look at shear and SST maps to make sure that it is possible (excluding what happened last year) for the thing to develop, and then on the visible you can probably look for signs of circulation, banding, and look at the Dvorak (sp?) loops.
Hey Houstonian, give us an update on those TStorms heading your way. I've got to live vicariously through you right now on any TStorms or even rain.
Hectorvian, that graphic that they have pretty much applies for all hurricaine seasons. It's probably tweaked for where the warmest water is, but that's about the only difference.
Has anyone noticed how many different pronunciations the Weather Channel has had for Alberto?

So much for being the "hurricane authority". They can't even agree on the name.
Lou, with the systems that are out there right now. That # might just out the window. I do believe that we will have a very active early part of the season with at least one major forming and about 2 hurricanes total forming. Now where and when that I can not forecast, but I do know this. Alberto was a wakeup call for all of Florida and the East Coast because of the rapid intesification.

On that note, Max Mayfield from the NHC was talking about a loop down in the area where Al rapid intesified, basically explained as a deep warm water trough. Could he have been talking about an eddy and if so how long will that "loop" exsist in that part of the Caribbean.
just some T storms right now... probably sea breeze -- developed to the east and are moving s/sw... look like pretty good rumblers on radar... im on the west side of the I-45 cooridor and it has'nt started raining on me yet.. will prob wait till about 6p..right about the time ill be driving home.. its murphys law


i no nothing of anything topical tho SWLA
I usually catch different links from various blog sites here on WU. There are several good ones. I'll not mention them by name for fear of leaving somebody off. Just surf around some of the different blogs and you'll find some good satellite links and model links.
s/sw movement of T - storms is rare for here this time of year .. i would assume that they are being pulled that way by the "L" pressure that is alberto
I don't think it strengthened all that rapidly. I think the winds had been measured as being stronger than the storm was listed as, but because of the lack of organization, they did not decide to increase the intensity. Once the system got a little better organized (ie center of circulation got closer to the main area of convection) they increased the intensity by 20 mph.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO... LOCATED INLAND NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...

AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND
HISPANIOLA AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED... AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


interesting
I wonder, if all plays well and seeing how things currently are, if we might just have a remote shot at getting the most ever recorded June storms, which would be 4. Any normal year and there would be unanimous agreement that would only be possible when we get honest politicians on our seats (or when the oil companies actually care about how much we pay for gas). But considering last year and how active it looks right now, that may not look so much like science fiction anymore.

There have only been four years with three June storms: 1886, 1909, 1936 and 1968. Will 2006 be the fifth? Could be.
nothing to get hyped about, but it is interesting that the NHC has acknowledged this many waves this early.
Don't they mention every wave in the Tropical Weather Discussion, whether they are expected to develop or not?
Yes indeed, very interesting. I can't wait to watch them eat their words again when they talk about development. =]
Curious what the experts make of the following graphical forecast for the NC coast:

NC coast wind forecast

Look at the wind direction/speed and gusts for Wednesday into Thursday. It shows over 100 miles of coastline reversing direction nearly 120 within 3 hours and with gusts running 50+.

Have they been "tweaking" the models too much recently?

The winds and gusts they show would be a big flooding problem on the mainland of Pamlico Sound and up the Neuse River to New Bern and such.

They do, but usually the generic waves that amount to nothing will have just short descriptions. When those descriptions start getting longer and when they mention anything about a possible or forming low center is when they need to be watched. Also, things that are mentioned in the outlook (as opposed to the discussion) are often times worth noting too.
louastu, I think that they are talking about the waves in the Tropical Weather Outlook, not the Tropical Weather Discussion. The Outlook talks about only the two waves that have a potential of developing in the near future, and the Discussion talks about all four even if they are not going to develop and have little or no satellite representation.
wow, the minute i posted that, quake's description came up
Yeah, I posted the Tropical Outlook. Usually when the NHC writes about waves in the outlook, it means it is "significant". Nothing concrete, just something that is interesting at the present moment.
HURRICANE kING i DON'T KNOW WHERE IN nc YOU ARE BUT WE IN fAYETTEVILLE, nc ARE STILL UNDER A fLOOD wATCH BEGINING AT 11PM TONIGHT THROUGH WED.
all the T-storms are going to miss me yet again.. only half of this massive town is going to get any rain... thats leaves about 3 million of us out ... ;-((


just a TEASER...
I live in pamlico county.
hurricaneking's profile shows he is in Bayboro.

From my look at the winds forecast (posted above), he could get strong winds up the Neuse and localized flooding, even if Alberto stays inland. If it were to move to sea earlier in SC near NC border as BAM is now suggesting, then the coast forecast gets worse.
Folks Alberto is certainly a wake up call. He got going and persisted in very unfavourable conditions and came within a hair of attaining hurricane status. This in early June, when SSTs and oceanic heat content were much lower and shear much higher than they will be in the months to come. Alberto seemed to me to follow directly in the footsteps of the many unlikely storms battling seemingly insurmountable odds near the end of last season..
UNC70 I'm in Fayetteville, NC Cumberland County can we expect any flooding and/or winds here?
I think Fayetteville can expect 2-4inches of rain maby a little wind.
tropicalstorm, yes you probably will get some localized flooding. Most of southeastern Nc is under a flood watch. Expect 2 to 4 inches from this.
Hey toyo. I hope you can get some rain.
Hey HK, I know you don't need anymore so we try to keep it south of the nuese. LOL
We had 1.5 inches yesterday evening.
ok so Toyo are you in NC also? LOL looks like we have a NC club going on here LOL. We had those strong storms I collected hail marble size so I just know parts of Fay are going to flood. Will our winds be TD strength or not that strong?
The NOAA site I linked to above shows max sustained winds for F'ville being only around 15 mph with gusts 20-30. I suspect that the main risk for you would be during a thunderstorm band -- probably much like the last few nights -- and a possible tornado. With the ground already saturated with the 2-5 inches many in NC have received this week, another 3-5 inches will cause localized stream flooding, too. (It is always raining on you guys and Laurinburg and Lumberton.)

Along the coast, sustained strong winds from the south can cause strong rips and beach erosion.
I know it will be back to ts strength. Not sure if you will get it or not.
tropicalstorm, I live in New Bern, just south of HK. You might get some gusty winds in thunderstorms but probably nothing more than what has already been said by unc70.
If it can get some of it's center bands in the water then it could keep ts winds in them.
Got to go and walk the dogs before the rains come, be back on later.
It looks more and more subtropical. That band offshore is getting some strong convection.
know New Bern but not where HK is it's funny born & raised in NC but only know the major places heresuch as Raleigh,Durham, Fuqay (sp?), Charl, and on and on.
It's a tiny town.
Hello All...Man how time flies. I see we are at it again! It has been a very dicey day here in Tybee Island, GA. We have had atleast 1 confirmed tornado a few miles from here and PLENTY of more cells that COULD have produced one.

Also, looks like we could be in for a fairly long night as well.

Has anyone found a website that will give you your local doppler in a "full screen mode" (entire computer screen)?

Hold on to your hats my friends...this could be another LONG year in the tropics!

P.S. Is lefty and StormJunkie around this year?
Anyone have a link to the map that shows what the wind shear will be like for the week in the Caribbean?
The things to look for in tropical waves are as follows as I have learned from reading on here last year: 1.) circulation, 2.) feeder bands, 3.)a mid or low level circulation center, and 4.) if you can see the center then look for convection to start to come closer to the center. Just what I thought from last year can please correct me if I'm wrong. Thank you!
Welcome back Tybee. Keep them 'nados away fromt he bomb :)
Check out the site. StormJunkie.com. The hosting account is being updated so it does not look like it should right now, but most of the content is still there. Make sure you check it out when it comes back up.
SMU- I have several on the site. Sorry about the buttons not working right, should be back soon.

SJ
SJ...Whats up my man! I'll check it out foresure!
These waves in the Central Atlantic look to be catching up to one another. The far east one looks stronger and has more potential then the one before it now. I believe the back wave will gobble up the wave before it and then create a monster hurricane in the Caribbean. The one in the Caribbean has shown some improvement which is a good indication for possible development with this wave as it reaches the western Caribbean Sea.
Thanks Storm Junkie!! I am going there now.
Just been working on the site. It seems to be coming along pretty good.

How's the weather down there?

SJ
the wave in the central atlantic looks like it alredy has a circulation. I heard an idea that the wave train maybe more active this year because there does not seem to be as much w. pac. tropical activity. they are not taking the heat out of the tropics so there is more for our part of the world. this comes from J.B. at accuweather. because of that you may not believe seems like a lot of you do not care for him but I think he has a lot of good points.
SJ How much do you pay for web hosting???
Glad to see you back Dr. Masters.
Not really sure, but I think it was around 20 bucks amonth to get the bandwidth and storage that I wanted.

SJ
My hubby does web hosting check out his site Link
We're getting a little rain; kinda breezy!

View from The Windjammer, Isle of Palms, SC
http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/CustomGraphic/hurtrac.gif

hey whas the deal? comes ashore as a tropical storm, weakens to a depression (as usual) then strengthens to a tropical storm AGAIN, WHILE ON LAND! lol
86. WSI
NC is getting some of that rain from Alberto now. We need the rain BADLY in the southern Piedmont. We are over 9 inches down for the year in the rain department. Looks like Alberto took a slight jog to the west, which is good news for my area. I have heard estimates that we could see anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain. I am hoping for a solid 2 or 3.

For a good collection of computer model, weather, and climate links (including tropical links), check out weathercore.com. It has a link directory that contains a well indexed set of links.
Does anybody remember the last time a tropical storm named Alberto made landfall in northern Florida?

Twelve years ago a namesake storm came ashore, weakened quickly and lost its tropicality, but the remnants sat over southern Georgia for a very long time and caused some of the worst flooding cities like Macon and Albany have seen in ages.

I just hope the forecasts that show Alberto's leftovers moving on and out to sea do hold in this case...
Wondering if the dry air may have contributed to a brief intensification of Alberto. Since it is denser than the moist, it could have forced some lifting temporarily as it entered the circulation?

I remember Carmen in 1974 and Lili in 2002 strengthened and then weakened in short order with dry air. Claudette in 2003 strengthened with dry air around, too, just before land fall though I remember the NHC talking about a decrease in shear.
The eastern Atlantic wave that moved off of the Western African coast has a low pressure system along with the wave in the central Atlantic Ocean. I don't know about the Caribbean Sea wave but the one that moved off the African coast seems to be the one that has the best chance at doing so.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated
maximum amounts to 8 inches...are possible into Wednesday evening
over the southeastern half of Georgia...much of north and South
Carolina except for the western parts of those states...and into
extreme southeastern Virginia. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to
4 inches are also possible over the northern and central Florida
Peninsula.
The totals are getting higher and higher.
That wave in the Caribbean is looking better and better. There's a decent swirl on the RGB satellite now at 14N, 64W.
Yeah, it is. Shear's too high ATM, but I'd give it a 10-20% chance of being Beryl.

Wave over the open Atlantic is stunning.
There is a new WPAC invest.

94. MTP1
There are rumors that a water spout was sighted near us (just outside of Charleston, SC). Does anyone know if there is any truth to that? I went through one in NY and it was not fun.
cspencef...

I do remember that. At the time I lived just outside of Macon, GA and there were caskets floating down Interstate 75. The flooding was amazing for DAYS.
I Can't Believe Accuweather...they called for a Low Risk of a hit from a tropical system in the Big bend area of Florida...oops!
Here are a couple of tornado reports that were in Charleston County.

2205 CHARLESTON CHARLESTON SC 3278 7994 BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHED NEAR MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE TORNADO BROKE OUR A FEW POLICE CAR WINDOWS. (CHS)

2350 AWENDAW CHARLESTON SC 3304 7961 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT A CAMPGROUND ON DOAR ROAD. TREES DOWN. (CHS)
There is a new unnamed tropical storm out...
colby whats the chance for that storm to become a hurricane and possibly a major in the time to come. thats the one in the atlantic. impressive, and stunning to say the least.
We've had 2 tornado warnings now in the last two hours. Both came across the island that we live on. The last one must have touched down briefly and uprooted some trees and cause some minor damages. Both tornados have gone on to SC now.
We also are having some flash flooding in Savannah.

Just had a look on tv at the damage and it is not all that minor. Some really big homes are damaged pretty badly.
We have had 3 more tornados in the area but no reports of touching down.
Report I got from a freind.
101. SMU88
Your right Colby that storm in the Eastern Atlantic does look stunning. I wander if it will hold together as it crosses the Atlantic?

The wave coming through the Islands...the NHC states:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS
WELL-DEFINED IN THE MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE. ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 60W-68W INCLUDING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 60W-70W AND S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA FROM 60W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

I wander if there is a low with it...or if one will generate??
102. SMU88
Also, how long till the Navy deems an area as an invest?? I would think that wave in the Eastern Atlantic would certainly be an invest fairly soon.
99lsfm2...

Obviously by the name...I am on Tybee Isalnd. It has been dicey here all day however the worst thus far was this am (tornados, etc.)

Where are you?
Why is East Atlantic (MET-8) only take shots every 6 hours ? You would think they would do 30 min intervals with the activity that comes off africa ?
Not sure how many of you are away of the Herbert Box for hurricane. Here is the story about it.
Intresting information for those in south Florida.
Link
If Alberto has shifted slightly to the right what does that mean for SouthEastern NC? is our chances and amount of rain diminshing now? Can anyone answer this for me please?
107. MTP1
Thanks for the update, louastu.
108. PBG00
great link..I am in south fla and I will be watching those boxes..thanks
your welcome. Thought that it would be a good time to put up.
Just wondering..and it may have been mentioned..but did Alberto intensify because it crossed the Loop Current?
If Alberto is going exits into the Atlantic soon, it probably means it will get significantly stronger once there. Once in the Atlantic it is suppose to essentially ride the gulf stream out to sea.
is the rain shield evaporating as it comes into NC or is my eyes going bad? Can someone anyone look at the radar and tell me am I wrong or right?
Well, goodbye Alberto, but if you look at the stream, Ft. Myers/Naples has had a consistent flow all day. Sucks. (Granted we need the rain, but all it's been is gloomy last 24h). Listening to ABC Radio News at noon it was all about how sunny Clearwater was.... Somebody wanna take this trough?
The African Wave train is spitting them out this early in the year.. Buckle up folks
don't know what to make of it yetLink
116. IKE
AM91091 said..."I Can't Believe Accuweather...they called for a Low Risk of a hit from a tropical system in the Big bend area of Florida...oops!"...

I was thinking about that too and it was the FIRST storm of the season. Nice call accuweather. They should take that frame off their website. How embarassing is that???
So most of the models now have an existing cyclone in the Caribbean near 65w 14n. You guys have been talking about it looking back. There was some circulation in it and convective growth around it but it looks like shear tore it apart today. Tonight as that abates we will see what happens. Its moving into an area of less shear tomorrow then after crossing the next boundary prob. early thurs its traveling roughly, more or less in the direction of shear. NHC has it going west at 10kts but after tomorrow it should speed up. Is that what everyone is thinking?.
TybeeIslandGA
I am in Mobile. that report was from a freind in Savanah.
lol so alberto is finnaly something positive :)

hope the storm didnt cost a single life
yesterday i said something about orleans was wrong i thought orelans was more in the west

soryr not living in america so dont know all the places =/

next time i take a chart before i say something
micheal its real nice thoce charts but could u rather post a link my internet is only 16 KB so it takes a lot of time to load this page and if u keep posting images (which are nice to see) it takes me a lot of more time to load the page then =/
to my friends on here was not going to post but i am really
sick of the accuweather bashing and weather channell bashing
all i willsay about bastardi is god really blessed him wiith a talent
of course he always praises him for his gift he is well worth the money
as far as the weather channel lyons is not john hope but he is better than i dont see nothing forming in june masters are
i dont have a clue max jokefield unless it goes direwtly over coral gables
sorry for the hostility just sick of hearing the same old crap joe saw this potiential storm in mid may said development likely
around june 10. but remember gregrory was very good he is gone
now wu has bumbling masters and the 200 miles shifting jokefield. i respectfully agree to disagree but i promised to drop the masters and jokefield bashing if the rest
of the amteurs on here would quit bashing the pros goodnight.
130. IKE
Sorry SAINTHURRIFAN...but their,(I didn't mention their name), chart showing the chances of a storm hitting a specific area this year is laughable and it's only 13 days into a 183 day season. They should take it off their website.
So here's one for the experts,or at least those who are more well versed in tropical weather than myself. When does a wave become worrisome? Things like "Strong wave is well defined in the mid level curvature rotation with associated deep convection within the ITCZ" sound rather ominous, but I really have little idea what it all means. Any guidance here would be most appreciated...

Thanks
Matt
Key West, FL
I am no expert by any means but the latest sat vus, in my opinion show that the three waves of interest have lost their banding and any circulation they may have had and are becoming just a bunch of t'storms.
Does anyone have any "early track guidance" models on these waves?
SAINTHURRIFAN ---- Like wow! There was a really very long run-on sentence in that post!
ike i like you but you are wrong he only showed thier
would be less activity by the way in 2003 he said
ast 2004 florida east coast 2005 central look at the pro archives
and what happened those years plus i work for the 2nd largest military
contractor in the world guess who they use accuweather and impact weather
i guess us amateurs should tell them how to prepare maybe not just keep that in mind
oh that is northrop grumman . god bless
It's not bashing the pros. Every Pro should know that this is not exact science its modeling. The article has an alarmist headline( at least ffor the areas that are supposed to get hit this year).
You must read the entire article to realize it is a statistical study that they are doing. My point is that that the pro's should know better that to publish this sort of thing in this way.
The proper way to do it is like Dr Gray which is entirely academical. But then again nobody reads those.
I just want some models, LOL
I personally have no problem with Bastardi, and Dr. Lyons is one of the few people on the Weather Channel that I can stand to listen to.

Dr. Masters never said that nothing would form in June. I don't think many people really expected Alberto to form under the conditions that were present, so it would be very unfair to blame Dr. Masters for thinking it would be the quietest couple of weeks of the season.

I am guessing that when you say "jokefield", you are referring to Max Mayfield. If so, I think he, and the rest of the people at the NHC have done a fantastic job the past few seasons, and with Alberto this season.
I just want some models, LOL
Whoops... Didn't mean to double post
P21--- will these help?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs

http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/model/model.html
144. IKE
Hectorivan said..."My point is that that the pro's should know better that to publish this sort of thing in this way."....

Agree. I'm no expert...have no knowledge of the likelihood of storms hitting a specific area. When I saw that chart, I thought...okay, guess I'm pretty safe here in the Florida panhandle this season....oops!!!!
Night all. May have to get up early and go to the Doc if I am not feeling any better.

Anywho for anyone who has missed it.

StormJunkie.com has been created in an effort to provide an easy way to find the best weather data on the web. Models, imagery, and much more. Please take a look, I hope it is useful to all.

Night
SJ
146. IKE
I like to read what Dr. Masters says and trust in him and the NHC. It's an inexact science. No one will be right all or nearly all the time.

I like to read what Bastardi thinks too.
From Dr Master's June 1st blog, right before he mentions he's leaving for vacation...

As long as the subtropical jet is blowing over the Gulf of Mexico with 30 - 50 knots of wind like it is now, no tropical storm formation is likely in the Gulf. If we do get Tropical Storm Alberto in the next two weeks, it will have to form in the western Caribbean south of Cuba. Steering currents would then likely take the storm north across Cuba and then northeastward across the Bahamas and out to sea. The Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle will be protected from any tropical storms by the strong subtropical jet steam. I'm predicting only a 10% chance of a tropical storm in the Atlantic by June 15 this year.

The GFS model predicts that the subtropical jet will continue to generate high levels of wind shear over the prime June breeding grounds for hurricanes for at least the next 12 days. After that, I suspect the subtropical jet will weaken, and we will get one tropical storm forming in late June over the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.


STHURRIFAN~ You really think i dont see nothing forming in june masters is a good name for him or did ya just not bother to read his prediction?
148. IKE
Dr. M said...."The Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle will be protected from any tropical storms by the strong subtropical jet steam."........

OOPS!!!!!!
oh have them all, lol in spagetti fashion.
Ya, that was an oops. But hey, nobody's perfect.
Going back and view the last three frames using the incredibly addictive but nauseating zoom-rock technique there does appear to be a VERY slight northerly component to the circulations motion and, there is a shear boundary immediately to the left of it. The shear is to the w then quickly back to the N. If anything is there we should see it tonight.

I think that area be the only thing capable of doing anything so fast(5 days).
I posted my say on my blog to avoid filling this one with too many pictures that slow loading the whole thread of Master's Blog.

ScienceCop

He was on on the Western Carribian, south of Cuba development... I had it pegged 2 days out for landfall, but a few counties south...& big bend 3 days out...lol. I'll probibly be way off for the next 5. lol. If anyone got every aspect of it right everytime, we wouldn't care what everybody else thought.
...we got some much needed and very wonderful downpours here in the orlando area.
thank you, alberto. i was getting sick of smelling burning trees!!!
Dr. M's comment is valid the area "from Texas to the Florida panhandle" was protected. Anyway have a good night everyone. So glad that Alberto had so little longterm negative consequences.
157. IKE
Dr. Masters said..."Alberto made landfall at 12:45pm Tuesday near Adams Beach, Florida, about 50 miles (80 kilometers) south of Tallahassee."...

To me, that's still the Florida panhandle.
Looks like a lot of activity in Caribbean and eastern Atlantic.
OK - or you could jut turn on the silly flags at the top! Direct observation always triumphs however.
The GFS forecasts quite a bit of shear over that wave in the eastern carribean.
splittin hairs IKE.
Wonder if the Caribbean wave will be an invest soon.

Checking the FMIS mapping system (go here & click that link), most of noncontained fires look like their still burning (except the big bend fires, but they were somewhat few to start with comared to central & northeast FL) & it's updated often through out the day. I'll post the final numbers around midnight when the daily report comes out~ I hope it's more encouraging than that map. Atleast this knocked the large # of daily new fires down the last few days.
do i see something spining in the carribean maybe we have tommorow another depresion
just the last few frames... I was wondering if it was tricking my eye.
Ok...my 2 cents are here in my first post. I've been reading LOTS of bashing of experts, amateurs, fellow posters....etc.

Think about it folks....if these storms were predictable, everyone would be right all the time....and how interesting would that be?

Everyone uses different models, images, techniques, ouiji boards, computers, instinct, whatever....sometimes you're right, sometimes not. Isn't that the fun of this? Isn't that why we do this?

There is enough to keep our minds busy here without bashing, isn't there?

Ouch! Twisted my ankle coming off my soapbox -- gotta to get the ice.
*falls on the floor laughing at cyclone*

How do you figure a major hurricane out of that? Beryl, maybe. Hurricane Beryl is possible. A major hurricane? Yeah right.
Good googly moogly whod thought there were so many fires burning. I wonder if I did it right.

Its hard on to tell what your seeing sometimes that rotation area has some strange shear but something else is there.
I wouldn't say it is impossible that it will be a major hurricane, but I do think it is highly unlikely.
Well, all in all I didn't quite expect as much in the Savannah area as we saw today. We have 5" in the rain gauge, a blown out attic window, a neighbor whose car was totaled by a huge oak limb, and several reports of tornadoes, wind damage, power outages, and localized flooding. This thing brought more impact to Savannah than we've seen from a tropical system in years!
Has it calmed down for you yet, Savannah?
JFLORIDA~ sounds like you did it right. I've been keeping up with the Fl Fires in my blog for a while now. Memorial day weekend you couldn't see several counties for the red fire symbols, unless you zoomed in. Volusia had near 30 burning it it alone at one point.

The convection looks like it is dying down as it's trying to spin up.
The rain is gone, flood, but the winds keep gusting 30-40mph at times. Somehow we've been lucky all day and the ower has only flickered for a few moments, but never gone out.
glad to hear all is well in savanna
The Fl fire report just came out for the day. We still got 138 fires burning that aren't 100% contained on 18,527.5 acres. Compared to Saturday's 198 fires burning on 21963.7, Alberto put out 15% of FL fires. Looks like mostly the smaller fires. Perhaps it helped give the upper hand to the firefighters to get a bunch more under control in the next few days.
I was just looking at the 5 day ... and it has Alberto as a tropical storm hiting Portugal Sunday evening.

How on earth would that happen? The shear is way to high and the water is way to cold. Vince was a very rare storm, but atleast it had conditions better than this.
The remnants of Alberto are acting strange. Its bands dont match up to its circulation.
silent knight - its not a tropical storm, it would be an extratropical storm. tropical storms have warm cores, convecction near the center, etc. The low pressure center of alberto will transition into an extratropical system soon and will be energized baroclinically. the nhc forcasts that it will intensify at that point, so it wouldnt be very surprising that it would persist. Things like wind sheer and cold water dont impact extra tropical storms.

Also, i realized today that the western pacific has only had 1 storm so far. Usually by this time of the year they would have 5 or 6. I dont have a good understanding of global climatology or too much knowledge on typhoons, but i do know that there is some degree of an inversive relationship between atlantic and wpac activity. Could someone who knows more on those questions comment about this lack of activity in the pacific, what it might mean for the atlantic, and specifically if it has any ramifications on the unusual wave activity acrossed the central/eastern atlantic? Thanks.
Okay guys just got on here and need some help. Can someone point me in the direction of these waves and how to get a good look at them. I am new at this hobby. Anyone out there...What is the bottom line any possible TD's out there in 24 hours????
Theres a curious circulation in the area of 74 w 9 north moving rapidly to an area of heavy convection towards the open water. Its inside a V.
Looks to me that the remains of Alberto are heading north now.... How great is the risk of flooding in NC?
West Pacific 95W.INVEST
This is an excellent example of why we SHOULD NOT tamper with nature and try to control hurricanes.
How would the people in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas feel if this storm was dispersed in the gulf and you got no beneficial rain today.



Being more specific, hurricanes and tropical storms.

Alberto had sped up north but now in the last few frames of radar it looks like its jogging east.
187. MJH
I also noticed that at 79w and 10n, it looks pretty healthy on visible and ir. If it continues to gain more convection over night and get further north they may be something there with a lot of potential.
yes arcturus, this was the first rain for me in over 4 weeks, I am so thankful. This first storm presented itself so well, and I'm sure we can expect more rain for this area as the Season progresses.

Thanks to all you guys for keeping me sane!
Wow four weeks with no rain. My soil would be like concrete. I have been stuck in a two weeks without rain, then 4-5" inches all at the same time cycle since the start of April.





You guys are right about the "blob" at 79w and 10n. It caught my eye earlier but just figured it for the common burst that exist in that area.

However, this thing seems like it has something on its mind. It's holding together quite well. Plus, SST's are high and shear will be light.

Any predictions on this one? I say Tampa in 5 days, Cat 3.

Babu in Tampa.
@ ndcohn

I know it should be extraltropical there, but according to this siteit has it as a tropical storm on Sunday skiming the northen coast of Portgual. It shows a green icon, and a green icon is a tropical storm.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200601_5day.html
SilenceKnight - I'm seeing the icon closing in on Britain at that time - not unusual for storms that cross the North Atlantic as extratropical storms.

Also, I may be misinterpreting that chart (I usually am, reading charts is not one of my strong suits) but I think the chart is suggesting wind speed/strength equivalent to a tropical storm - as others have said, Alberto would almost certainly lose his warm core and other tropical characteristics by then. That far north, he would be entirely over cold water for an extended period of time.
Very interesting storm Alberto was. I look forward to seeing how the upcoming storm fare. Should be a good season.

The SSTs in the GOM are sure cooking. Is it possible that Alberto brought some of the hot water from the lower caribean to the gulf, as it looks as if the SSTs are considerably warmer now than just a couple of days ago.

Any predictions on the blobs headed into town?
I say one of them spawns a hurricane if the shear stays low.

Patrick

GIANTS IN 06
I do not see how based on the last few hours movement of Alberto how it is going to leave off the coast of the Carolinas... I think its going right up into Southern VA.
im form ireland and go to orlando florida will it be affected?
Alberto could very well likely significantly strenthen as he travels through the Gulf Stream. Thos waves are healthy but the one to be concerned about is the one in the Caribbean with a well defined circulation you can see on visible satellite imagery.
Good Morning Dr.Master's.
Sorry that Alberto had to interrupt your vacation.
TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ONE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ANOTHER
ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...ARE
GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF
EITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS IS NOT EXPECTED.


Ireland - Any further effects of Alberto on the Orlando area today should be minimal, perhaps just slightly enhancing the usual afternoon showers and thunderstorms. By tomorrow, Florida should be getting back into a typical summertime east flow weather regime, with the subtropical high building well to the north.
Gaston type rain from Alberto in central NC. This will be a major issue.
Tomorrow, I'll analyze Alberto's sudden burst of intensification Monday morning, and report on what the rest of June may hold for us. It could be an exceptionally active June.

I wonder what Dr. Masters is suggesting by this statement, especially the last part.

Exceptionally active = record breaking activity?
Big rain shield in central NC. Missing me to the west as of now... I live in Pitt Co. Shouldn't be much of a flooding threat except for urban flash flooding.

It WILL raise river levels and if June proves to be active (and I hope it's not), ALberto could be our Dennis that set us up for Floyd...
MichaelSTL,

IMHO a exceptionally active June may not always mean tons of tropical storm activity. Just that they are alot of tropical waves and Cape Verda type things going this month that may not bode well for us for the rest of the summer.
---Shameless Plug---

I am trying to get a final headcount for my contest please check out my blog for the rules.

Also if you running a similar contest let me know so between everyone that is running a hurricane prediction contest can cooridate and not step on each other's toes

----EMD SHAMELESS PLUG--
Regarding June Tropical Storms:
Just looking at the climatology shows you that the most likely place to get hit in June is the Big Bend Area of Florida.
--Off topic annoucment--

Starting tommorrow if thier is enough interest I shall start up my werid and wacky Friday questions again

---End---
I am thinking that this year will repeat last year in terms of activity. I know that some others say that last year was an anomaly, but that was said of 2004 as well.
We Floridians were glad to have the rain...good to hear that damage was minimal and there were no deaths.

That said...methinks that Mother Nature has a few more "surprises" up her sleeve this season...stay tuned!
I am sticking by my guns that this year is not going to be bad as last year. However I think the eastern seaboard is going to be in the crosshairs this season.

But I would not be overly surpised to see a Gulf Coast hit by a early or late season cane.

Bottom Line - even after thousands of years predicting the weather even one of Mother Nature's "Weapons of Mass Destruction" is a crap shoot.
I am not going to say why I think that this year may be as active (and in the next 100 or whatever years it will get worse and worse); that is a topic for Fshhead's blog. Of course, being as active does not mean that it will be as bad (in terms of deaths and damages).
211. WSI
Wooohooo! Over one inch of rain at my house. Looks like we will get around 2 before its over. Grass and plants are happy. :)

weathercore.com
I can not wait for Dr. Masters report on what the rest of June may hold for us.

The report will be exceptional, as June will be.

Dear, oh, dear :/
That system in the eastern Caribbean looks like it fizzled. Any thoughts on that?
214. haydn
That area is in 20-30 kts of shear. This is not good for development.
Well...about 2006 being worse then 2005...

I think it is very possible that 2006 could be worse in number of storms, number of hurricanes, number of major hurricanes.

That being said...I am not sure that there will be as many landfalls. ^_^

I thought I heard someone say that this was going to be more of a verde year than a gulf year.

Gulf = 99% landfall chance (once you are in the gulf, there is no way out). Cape Verde = ? % landfall chance. (It mostly has to do with how the bermuda high is feeling, and the trough of the moment)
I am hoping for a year of 25-28 named storms, all of them fishspinners except for one little tropical storm, Alberto! (Oh well)
The location of the Bermuda High is definately very important in detremining the path of Cape Verde type storms (and other storms as well). For example, the GFS 5 day forecast has it extending far to the west, which would make the western Gulf Coast suspectiable. By the way, also take note of the low near Africa (here is the animation).
I read the much maligned accuweather article:

Said AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center Meteorologist Bernie Rayno, "With the exception of the southern tip of the Florida peninsula, almost all the damage wrought by last year's storms in the U.S. occurred along the Gulf Coast. In recent history, it is the Gulf coast and the East Coast from the Carolinas southward that have borne the brunt of U.S. hurricane strikes. Because of this, people may be unaware that portions of the Northeast coast have been severely damaged by major hurricanes in the past, and that there is a dramatically increased likelihood that over the next five years the Northeast could be hit by a major hurricane. This could be the year."

I think the point of the graphics and the prediction of "low chance" for impact in the big bend, is them anticipating the bermuda high flinging storms up towards the NE.

It's trying to hype up the NE so that they pay attention. Everyone in the gulf is already watching. But even a Cat-2 Alberto (if he miraculously strengthened) turning in and hitting a Bos-Wash metropolis would be bad.
Look at the Hawaiian high Michael...

Both of the Highs seem massive in the GFS. I would want to see how fast they are spinning anti-cyclonically, but it would be hard for anything cyclonic to go near anything that deep. Makes me wonder about the Alberto forecast. I don't know if he can go back over water...

Back to the satellites.
We here in Navarre, FL (panhandle region) were hoping for a little more rain out of Alberto. All I got was a trace which was not enough to make a puddle. I am glad for central and southern FL as they needed the rain as well. We have been without rain for over a month and have only had 9" since the beginning of the year. Normal amount should be 25-30" by now.

I hate to say this, but we sure could use a low intensity tropical system to come this way so we could get some relief.
What does the Hawaiian High have to do with the Atlantic?

If you look at the animation, Alberto cuts right through a weakness in the Bermuda High (or possibly between two highs; the orange - pink colors mark high pressure areas; high pressure is >1013 mb); also, the initial frame (frame 0) is the actual conditions when the model was run, so that one frame is not a forecast.
We picked up 4.14 inches of rain here in Bluffton, SC in a 24 hour period from Alberto. Time to dry out! :)

NHC has the high @ 1031MB, that is pretty darn high.
Yeah, I think Alberto just left FL craving for more. Cuba & Cayman took more than their share of rain from him... I got a total of less than 2"

The Caribbean wave is having a much tougher time of it this morning, by the last few frames it looks like that 50kts of shear that was trailing it to the NE yesterday is really catching up to it now.
225. PBG00
That Bermuda high is what kept throwin storms at s fla in 2004
Combining the shear and fast movement of the wave in the Carribian I think this will be a EPAC issue.
GFS seems to have lost sight of wave one off Africa but, it and the NOGAPS are recognizing a new low @ approx 120hrs.
To be in the immediate path, I've got little rain here in Greenville NC. Much of the heavy rain has been "training" in a swath b/w Chapel Hill/Durham area and I-95. Eastern NC has had little precip. Winds picking up a little from the calm conditions an hour ago...

I doubt we will end up with 2 inches here.
Anyone think the wave in the carribian will develop? Looks like it lost a little luster.
230. jeffB
We're ready for the "beneficial rains" to stop:

Heh. Raleigh isn't in drought, we (FL) are.
BTW, all you folks who have just returned, check out my blog. It's not weather-related, but a great link nonetheless.
well.. LOL put up the link colby??
235. WSI
"I wonder what Dr. Masters is suggesting by this statement, especially the last part.

Exceptionally active = record breaking activity?"

I would think he means above average, but that is just my take on it.


weathercore.com
Wombats - Looks like a good part of the energy in that Carribean wave got sheared off far to the northeast, but enough of the energy has escaped and is under a ridge entering an area of low shear, so I think it still merits watching over the next few days.
I said it this morning, I am here in Richmond and when Gaston decided to change directions on us, we had 11 inches of rain in 4 hours. While your rain in Raleigh may not be as intense you have been in it for a longer period of time.. Gaston was not a strong cyclone, nor very large, yet we still had some extreme flooding.
Would 3 storms be a record for June?
hello - long time lurker, 1st time poster
hooked - i was on the road in richmond during gaston, didnt think id make it home.
im now in se va and im waiting for that big rain shield to roll in anytime now. we have about .6 inches so far today.
Would 3 storms be a record for June?


I think 4 would be a new record
Stellar - Dr. Masters answered that question in a previous blog: Link.

Three named storms in June would tie the record set in 1936 and 1968.

I doubt we will reach 4 but you never know.
243. unc70
Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill area was really dry this spring, down 8-10 inches for the year since March. It started raining irregularly 3-4 weeks ago -- three downpours in a row at my office, each missing my house and yard by a block or two. Eventually, most of us got 3-4 inches before Alberto.

The RDU airport was still down over 5 inches from normal before today. So far today, they show 4.98 inches and it is still pouring.

Getting this rain (and some more) is usually a protection from the worst hurricanes. They seem to really like hitting us after a really hot, drought-condition summer with lots of energy to feed on. Soggy, rainy summers don't attract as many storms.

Any thoughts on that cut-off low by the coast of Spain? It's been hovering there for a while, and looks like it might stay there a few more days. Water temps are a little cold, but it looks like it's trying to turn sub-tropical.
245. jeffB
Local storm reports from North Carolina:

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/nc/public.html

Lots of streets flooding, some larger roads closed, a bridge abutment giving way, and so on. The "Storm Total" radar report for our area is now showing a wider area with over five inches of rain, and seven inches in some spots.
RE Accuweather claim
"Because of this, people may be unaware that portions of the Northeast coast have been severely damaged by major hurricanes in the past, and that there is a dramatically increased likelihood that over the next five years the Northeast could be hit by a major hurricane. This could be the year."

Here are the facts:

According to the HURDAT files there have been only 2 major hurricanes to hit the NE (NY-Maine) since 1851. (Regions 10 and 11)

Regarding risk. According to the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project:

The historical risk for a landfalling major hurricane is less than 0.7 % in any given year for zones 10 and 11.

The risk this year is estimated to be just under 1.8% or about 2.5 times the average and might be considered a "significant increase in risk", however the estimated 2006 total risk of under 1.8% can hardly be labeled "high" or "significant" (IMHA)
where is Dr.Masters update ??? said he would analyze alberto's rapid development today.... still waiting...
He's probably writing it as we speak.
Regarding the low off of spain:
This is a surface reflection of a good sized upper level cut-off low.

500mb Chart
Well...The wave in the eastern Caribbean has passed throught the first Hebert Box and convection is now flaring again.
Unfortunately that wave is about to get shredded by another area of high shear. There isn't anything in the tropics that is worth watching right now for significant development. Next week maybe a different story though...
whats that group of showers at the tail end of the trough in the gulf, just off brownsville, texas?

Brownsville Visible Satellite Loop
Im still rooting for that little guy in the eastern carib.
Sure it's being sheared apart but that didnt stop alberto did it?
Just some showers associated with the trough. The TC Genesis Parameters considers it the most threatening thing in the Atlantic, though.
Please don't say nothing is worth watching. =D Mothernature is likely to prove you otherwise and then you'll be all... "Woops Sorry Guys. Didn't mean to put your guard down!"

Look at that big wave off of panama.
The UKMET and NOGAPS predict high shear to return in the area south of Jamaica.
Nothing is worth watching at the moment. We will not see any genesis this week. We can relax for a few days.
78 w 12 n still is interesting. (the area in the north east corner of the storm.) But nothing down there has a good chance of surviving.

68w 16n a little behind the developed area is probably where the circulation should be still hard to tell.
Lest anyone think all of Florida got rain, we are 10 miles from the coast in south/central Florida, east of Lake Okeechobee, and we got about half an inch onto our parched ground. This in two short showers, one Monday and one Tuesday.

This is the worst drought we have ever seen.
Worst drought we've ever seen? Uh...no. There was a much worse one only a few years ago.
78 w 12 n still is starting to look like it is having a good day.

Yea - Drought spring 2002 -- didnt rain from jan till may - up here in north central.
Gads! - so is 68w 16n! check the loop both systems last 4 frames.
Lordy - Im thinking it sure got quiet here!Link but then saw there was a new thread! Like I said in the empty room heheh - 68w 16n and 78 w 12 n seem to be having good days. check the loop both systems last 4 frames.
FLTropixWatcher...I too live in Fl....east coast in Stuart. No appreciable relief here either. Total rainfall past week less than two tenths! Hope those that received the rain are happy.