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Alberto analyzed; June tropical outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:53 PM GMT on June 14, 2006

Alberto has been downgraded to a tropical depression, and continues heading northeast across the Carolinas towards the Atlantic Ocean. The storm is undergoing the transition from a tropical system to an extratropical storm, and is expected to intensify into a powerful non-tropical low pressure system with 50 mph winds on Thursday once it moves out over the open Atlantic. The main threat from Alberto today remains heavy rain and tornadoes, and several tornado warnings have already been issued today for coastal North Carolina. Six tornadoes touched down in South Carolina yesterday, causing minor damage and some injuries. Alberto pushed a storm surge of 4-5 feet in the Big Bend area of coastal Florida, but no significant damage from this flooding has been reported. Perhaps this large surge surge from a mere 50-mph tropical storm will make local planners leery of permitting a controversial 7,000-unit condominium complex to be built in Taylor County where Alberto came ashore. I'm all for sensible development, but building in coastal wetland subject to large storm surges is certainly not sensible--especially with hurricane activity in the Atlantic expected to be higher than usual for at least 10-20 more years.

Analyzing Alberto's life
Alberto formed from a tropical wave that moved off of the coast of Africa on May 30. The wave tracked farther north than usual for June, entering the eastern Caribbean on June 5, and the western Caribbean on June 8. The wave interacted with the unsettled weather of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which has been able to push unusually far north for this time of year. The interaction between the ITCZ and the African wave produced Alberto on June 9. It is uncommon for a June tropical storm to form from an African wave; usually, the left-over remains of a cold front or trough of low pressure serve as the seed for June storms. However, last year's Tropical Storm Arlene also formed from an African tropical wave at about the same time of year. It's worth noting that both the GFS and Canadian models made very good forecasts of the genesis of Alberto. The best track forecasts were made by the GFS model, but the official NHC forecast outperformed all the models.


Figure 1. Track of Tropical Storm Alberto (with winds speeds in mph plotted every six hours) overlaid on a plot of Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) from June 12, 2006. The TCHP is a measure of the total heat content of the ocean, and high values of TCHP have been shown to aid hurricane intensification. In this image, the high heat-content waters of the Loop Current are visible as the lighter shades of green extending from the Yucatan Channel northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Note that Alberto spent much of its life over the Loop Current. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Alberto struggled over its entire life with wind shear of 20-30 knots overhead. Why, then, was it able to put on a surprising burst of intensification on Monday morning over the Gulf of Mexico? One possibility is that the a brief lull in the wind shear allowed Alberto to take advantage of the warm waters of the Loop Current. As seen in Figure 1, the Loop Current was pumping a long tongue of waters with high heat content into the central Gulf of Mexico. Alberto spent much of its life over this high heat content water. Just as Alberto moved away from the Loop Current, wind shear appeared to drop by about 10%, based on satellite estimates I viewed at the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS site. This small relaxation in shear may have been enough to allow Alberto to take advantage of the warm Loop Current waters and put on a burst of intensification. Shortly thereafter, the shear increased by 10%, Alberto left the Loop Current, and the intensification stopped.

Tropical outlook for the rest of June
Past history has shown that an active June in the Atlantic has no correlation with hurricane activity later in the season. However, the model forecasts over the past few days from the reliable GFS, NOGAPS, and Canadian models are showing a weather pattern more typical of mid-July developing over the tropical Atlantic. This may make for a exceptionally active June. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is forecast to be far more active and further north than usual, and the GFS model has been predicting that one or two tropical cyclones may form in the mid-Atlantic from African waves interacting with the ITCZ. This is almost unheard of in June. Wind shear over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic is expected to be much below normal, and with sea surface temperatures 0.5 - 1.5 degrees C above normal, it would not surprise me to see two more named storms this June. One saving grace is that the subtropical jet stream is expected to stay active and relatively far south, with should act to bring hostile wind shear to any storm that might move into the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, a series of strong troughs are forecast to move across the Atlantic Ocean the remainder of the month, which should act to recurve any storm that might form there away from land.

While there is nothing threatening looking out there today, we should keep an eye on the ITCZ just off the coast of Africa south of the Cape Verde Islands, and the region just north of Panama, in the coming days.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Duh, beat me. Nice post Dr Masters!
I have to admit; the GFS does look very ominous long-range.
Lol. Everyone wanting to be first.

Well written.
Atmos, ominous for us, or ominous for the storms. Cause the bermuda high looks really powerful on the gfs I saw (there might be a more recent one) and would cap anything from spinning in the sea.
6th .. does that count for anything
Definitely NOT first! ::G::
Jeff, you are asking TOO much of developers if you TRULY expect them to heed sensible things such as storm surges from *minor* systems. I have seen the most amazing projects go forth here in So. FL all in the name of BLIND greed... Really pathetic when the warning signs aren't heeded.
Here's to hoping the systems forecast with the possibility of an unusually active June all are fish-storms...
Very informative. I too have noticed the ITCZ being pretty active. Thanks for the analysis. I agree that one or two more storms may form.
Thanks Doc :-)
Yes, but remember Steve the Bermuda High is a surface feature and only affects the path a storm in the Atlantic would take. It will not prevent storms from gaining strength. It is good news however that the High is further east which allows more storms to recurve away from the eastern U.S
Question -
Can a storm like Alberto alter the course or slow down the Jet stream, facilitating subsequent tropical development in the near term?

12th
We could expect to see great activity this year and a possible record breaking year once again if the Cape Verde Season takes on full swing which was abscent last year and the activity is starting up now. Any thoughts.
I'm 13th. Does that count for anything?
I'm in Palm Beach county Florida......Should I run now???
Dr. Jeff about the sub-tropical jet stream...It is forcast to stay south but the models predicting low wind sheer in caribbean sea and curently there almost low in sheer in the caribbean. Link
17. AZ
Not much happening here. I guess I will go hang out with Hurricanechaser and the intelligentsia and see what God is stirring up.
Am I in the right room ?? Heheh, was posting on the old thread then power went out twice - still having bad weather in n Florida. Like I said in the empty room - 68w 16n and 78 w 12 n seem to be having good days. check the loop both systems last 4 frames.
Good article I was wondering about that; the shear seemed to be going down around midnight to 3 or 4 am each night the back up by 2 or 3 pm, those days Alberto was out there at least.
"Question -
Can a storm like Alberto alter the course or slow down the Jet stream, facilitating subsequent tropical development in the near term?"

No. The Jet Stream is far, far more powerful than any tropical system.
We lost power twice in sourth florida and only got maybe 2 strong t-storms the entire time. One time we were out for about an hour, the next day we were out for about 10 minutes.

Makes me wonder if Dave Barry is right about FPL's commitment to making sure that within 72 hours, 80% of their customers will have a lausible excuse. (or something like that)

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/living/columnists/dave_barry/14686260.htm
I still say that wave in the Caribbean has potential. It's definitely putting up a good fight, and now that is has passed the wind shear in the eastern Caribbean, it may want to keep on going. Looking much better than this morning.
Can anyone explain about the ITCZ zone, and how you can forcast tropical activity with it?

(newbie here..so please excuse the ignorance..)
The ITCZ is where the trade winds converge, which allows for thunderstorms to develop along it. It moves farther north during the Northern Hemisphere summer months and retreats farther south during the winter months (and the Southern Hemisphere's summer). So if you get a wave moving along or close to it, thunderstorm activity associated with the wave can be enhanced by its proximity to the ITCZ, and can spin off from it as a tropical depression.
25. WSI
callmearavis,

This wiki article
explains it well.

26. WSI
quake described it well too. :)
The area just north of Panama is blossoming, but unless it makes a hard right turn soon, it'll slam right into Nicaragua.
Looks like the wave in the Caribean is really picking up some steam this morning. Bursts of deeper convection are forming hour by hour.

GIANTS IN 06
oh.. okay totally understand now..

Thank you Quakeman and WSI


Shear will play a higher role in the 69w 15n system. So 74w 17n - theres an upper level high there - but possibly a depression by midnight along with the 69w 15n system!!??? If shear doesnt kill it.
I think the blob way north west of Panama will go into Nicaragua but the area of circulation just north is slower and a little more northerly and will split off soon.
Sorry 74 west 17 north should be 79 w and 12 n (was reading and typing at the same time)
Thanks for the update. I see my GFS is the winner again! Never doubt the GFS!..LOL
Aren't some of these a little ominous sounding?

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
A RATHER
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST NEAR 20
KT. SIMILARITY TO THE WAVE TO ITS EAST...THIS WAVE ALSO REMAINS
WELL-DEFINED WITH BROAD ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN
38W-45W. THIS WAVE MAY BE EXTENDED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE N ON
THE 18 UTC ANALYSIS TO ACCOUNT FOR ROTATING CLOUDS N OF 14N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR AS ORGANIZED AS
YESTERDAY BUT IT STILL DOES SHOW SOME SIGNATURE. THE RAIN SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY COVERS 15N-19N BETWEEN
69W-74W. SOME OF THE SHOWERS IN THIS AREA ARE BECOMING MORE
CONVECTIVE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. A FEW BUOY AND SHIP
OBS HAVE SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS.
35. IKE
That blob south of Haiti/DR is more impressive this morning and appears to be moving slightly north of west and may get into the Gulf of Mexico on it's current path. Maybe this is what Bastardi was talking about to watch around the 20th..which is 6 days away.
36. IKE
I should have said...more impressive this afternoon....

Dr. M...can you check into allowing us to edit on here????
That wave to the north of Panama has little time, but if it can go further north and maybe just skirt the coast of Nicaragua then it may have a better chance, but could also combine with the wave to the south of Haiti. This has a good chance along with the wave to the west of the Cape Verde Islands. Alberto may have a comeback but very unlikely as the weak front has him in its grasp now and will not let go.
38. IKE
The buoy in the central Caribbean @ 15N, 75W or west/SW of the Haiti/DR blob has a pretty low pressure...in the 29.80's and falling and a typical stiff trade wind of up to 25 mph.

That blob's worth watching.
Yeah we should be able to edit/delete our own posts lol (but nobody else's of course)
40. IKE
Agree...some times I say things I wish I could delete.
Just what i needed to hear----i'll be in the Outer banks in 10 days!!!
Yea IKE with the Haiti system - I think shear pushed the convection ahead and to the NW of the area of circulation - - which is just catching up to it in the lower right. Theres a weird anticyclone flow hitting it from the south and more moisture coming up top meet it from the south west.
I am surprised that WSI and StormJunkie have yet to plaster their websites all over this blog.
44. WSI
"I am surprised that WSI and StormJunkie have yet to plaster their websites all over this blog."

LOL! Thanks for the laugh this afternoon lasik. I needed that.
Also if you look closely in the stuff coming up from around Panama there seems to be an area of circulation in it. There were two down there on several models. If all that can come together before the shear hits it will be cool to watch.
Sorry heres the loop link
no problem, WSI. just giving you indirect exposure.
48. WSI
"no problem, WSI. just giving you indirect exposure."

I sent you a message. ;)

Thanks for the exposure too. LOL!
Ike...definitely...the Hispaniola blob is worth watching!
If you look out in the east Atlantic, there's some pretty obvious circulation along with moderate convection in the ITCZ. I predict the next storm will be there, not in the Caribbean.
"The buoy in the central Caribbean @ 15N, 75W or west/SW of the Haiti/DR blob has a pretty low pressure...in the 29.80's and falling and a typical stiff trade wind of up to 25 mph.

That blob's worth watching." - IKE

I remember when everyone kept saying that about Rita before she developed. o.O
52. IKE
JFLORIDA said..." I think shear pushed the convection ahead and to the NW of the area of circulation - - which is just catching up to it in the lower right."....

Yeah...I noticed that circulation.
53. IKE
"""I am surprised that WSI and StormJunkie have yet to plaster their websites all over this blog."""

Funny.
The wave in the carribean looks somewhat impressive. Does anyone have a link to wind shear values in the area?
Here's a link.
Quiet today. So when do you think we will see Beryl?
shear is pretty decent. Thanks for the link
Zoom in on the vis down to the Panama area theres LOTS of circ diverging from that area. Two systems soon?
Weatherwatcher007,

I have a bunch of links in my favorites to images, an mph kt calc, and stuff foe the Pacific and Indian Oceans. If you or anyone would like them, I can post them so they can be added to a favorites folder.
This low has got some issues. I think some three-year old got on here and drew this.Link
Anyone notice how we have about 4 possible development areas over the next week, and normally we should have about one realistic one to talk about this time of year.
new constallation lol
"constellation"
I noticed them too. Beryl may be here sooner than we think.
I wish there was a link to radar in Haiti
cajunkid ....Haitian radar....we have that in south Florida. It's called the Coast Guard!!!!
lol
I saw an amazing site earlier today. ACigarette type boat on a trailer with "Homeland Security" emblazoned on the sides with 4 300hp Yams on the ass! Somebody enlighten me as to who actually operates a boat like this. It can't be Homeland jokers...they are all politicians!
Dr Jeff masters

what do u think about the path the storms are going to follow

are they going to recurve before the islands or will it follow the coast line of the continen South America?

Here in the Virgin Islands, we had the "blob" south of the DR move past us yesterday. It sort of fizzled out right on top of us, interacting with a high directly to our North. The low obviously moved to our South as a result, and is now following the same path as Alberto. I would bet that a pole of our friends in the Southern Caribbean would indicate that this thing kicked up some nice rain and thunderstorms. It's interesting to note that my weather station on the northside of St. Thomas was recording the high to the north and had pressures at 1020 mb. A fellow weather watcher on gobeach.com who was on the southwest side of St. Thomas recorded 992 mb. Definately odd weather for June for us. We needed the rain however. I also am curious about the ITZ and our tradewinds. Last year, one weather reporter attributed our lack of the "cape verde" season to alot of Sahara Dust that kept formation at bay. How will all of this interact?Seems like we've had ALOT of dust and volcanic debri in the air over the past month, and of course I'd be grateful if it keeps the storms away from us again this year :-)
STORMTOP where are you? I really could take some guidance now.
Randrewl, Those cigarette boats are operated by either the Coast Guard or Customs. Usually the Coast Guard has markings on theirs, but not Customs. The Coast Guard has been operating them for several years to combat those used by smugglers.


Pat
i havent seen a good rain and thunderstorm in ages however the rain and thunderstorms should be normal this time in the year =/
coastie24...Naw...no Coast Guard involved with this one! Totally a Homeland Security boat and I live right on the coast and have never seen one of these! coast Guard would totally wreck a beauty like this in less than 24...local yokels also!
Wow. i just checked out the models MM5 and RUC on StormJunkies website and the MM5 shows the storm intenstifying right underneath us here on the Cape tomorrow any thoughts on this. I also believe that the two waves 69 west and 25 west have the next best chances for our next named storms Beryl and Chris. Any replies and I have a descripition on my blog on the possible named storm scenario this season.
Homeland Security boats must be operated by the "mercenaries"..like Blackwater! I know they monitor sites like this so they can reach me anytime they want!
Posted By: Weather456 at 5:52 PM AST on June 14, 2006.
STORMTOP where are you? I really could take some guidance now.

Generic answer: Cat 5 to hit New Orleans

/just picking on ya Stormtop...LOL
You want guidance from STORMTOP!?

Why!?
Looks like the blob under PR is drawing some of the moisture from the blob near Nicaragua. Any thoughts?
Because when it comes to storms, he's on top of things. Get it? STORM, TOP. STORMTOP.
Does Nicaragua know that PR is stealing their moisture? This sound like a political issue to me.
Looking at the water vapor its clear where these tropical waves are forming up. Note the shear boundaries forming between them. One heading NNE the other WNW. The plain Water vapor is better to see this. Zoom in to the area above Panama.
I think the second round shape headed up to DR is the sheared off convection from around the low headed towards Nicaragua.??
Actually the DR one 70 w 17 n is headed WNW just more slowly. The shear doesnt seem as bad around it today. Use the Zoom on the sat
Any thoughts on these storms? Development?
Probably not, Trouper. They're vigorous, but the air is pretty stable.
There looks to be a couple upper level circulations in the eastern Atlantic: one to the north of the islands and one to the northwest of the African coastline. I believe these two areas will begin to moisten the atmosphere over here and then the waves will begin to form closer and closer to the African coast. The wave south of the island of Hispanoila is looking pretty healthy right now and maybe our next named storm(I was about to say that it would be our first storm). Alberto seems to be a non-tropical low pressure system but may be able to intensify like the MM5 and RUC are saying that he could end up closer to the Cape and Islands. It's currently high 60's with cloudy skies increasing here on the Outer Cape, and we could reach the mid 80's Sunday through Tuesday.
You want guidance from STORMTOP!?

Why!?


yeah, why?
Alberto was never a non-tropical storm....in fact I have no idea what that might mean. There is no such term in meteorology. Alberto was a complete freak! Not a tropical system...not a sub-tropical system...not even an extra-tropical system...which he is now!
Alberto was another complete hybrid-type system that defies conventional met definitions! Get used to it people....this crap has just picked up where Zeta left off!
Randrewl, The only other part of Homeland Security that would use this type of boat is a group called ICE. They are a combination of several different Law Enforcement organizations. I do know that the Coast Guard station in Miami does have some of these type of boats.


Pat
I'm sorry for the wrong terminology Randrewl. I meant to say He wasn't a tropical storm, but an extratropical storm, although I believe he may end up further north then anticipated and he could restrengthen which I think he is doing right about now as he reaches the outer Gulf Stream western wall.
coastie24...Ice is immigration and customs enforcement....naw! They can't drive a thing like this....they need to be out on the border in New Mexico popping caps into illegal aliens. No, Boats like I saw could only be piloted by mercenary idiots like Blackwater! The Coast Guard is not part of Homeland Security and neither are the local Sheriff's Depts!
NAtlanticCyclone...That's cool. I just have no further thoughts on Berto until he truly emerges off the mainland. Then we'll see what happens. I p[ersonally am not excited about it!
Randrewl, Actually, the Coast Guard is the largest agency within Homeland Security. I was still on active duty in the Coast Guard when we made the move.
What is the latest on the 3 tropical waves?
I just looked at the latest west african visable and notice the starting of rotation. Is it just me but does the cloud group towards the left bottom look like its forming?
What are the thoughts on the shear and the dry air in the gulf. Will it ever let up? It's been like that for over a month now which means no rain for us in W central Fl. Alberto helped but not nearly enough. But, Is it going to let up in the gulf?
Alberto has recently developed a deep burst of strong convection to the northeast of his low center. This could be influenced by the Gulf Stream interaction and he is restrengthening as of this time.
Where can I find precipitation totals online for my area in real time or close to real time? I normally look at intellicast under storm center- historical- daily precip but even now, it only has rain data from 12Z Jun 13 to 12Z Jun 14. We got a lot of rain (all after 12Z today and I'm curious to know just how much... Creek is VERY full and about to start backing up!
TPA if that high pressure the models are forcasting in the next week or so builds in, I think you will see your rain.
floodzonec-

the wunderground radars have an option to view "storm" and "last hour" precipitation. its one of the advanced features on the radar. one is for the past hour's worth, the other one i think just gets reset by the radar site (usually once a day in my experience unless theres an actual storm passing through, in which case they let it accumulate until its gone)
102. SMU88
Amazing how quiet it is in here now that there is no storms to talk about!! lol
Hmm...intersting. I was just watching Steve Lyons on the tropical update and he was saying that way out in the Atlantic, typically you have easterly trade winds that blow across the entire basin, especially this time of year. But instead, there is an elongated low-pressure-type flow that extends from the west coast of Africa out to midway to the Antilles, where some westerlies are also occurring. He said that would give waves moving through there a better chance at development than they otherwise would have. And we have two of them out there within this zone, both with low centers, so we'll have to see if they develop some deep convection and hold their own. I wish I had a graphic of that I could show everyone.
floodzone~ up top there where you click blog to get here, select NEXRAD Radar. Enter your zip to get to your area & you will be looking at your radar. Right above that click on Precipitation History.
Where does Lyons come on? I would like to see that graphic too, I am not quite clear on what is being described here.
Intersted also quakeman55, 06 yet throws another spin with an ITCZ not playing they way it should be. Another impossible year to predict? Another year of abnormalities?
Will this push the Saharan Dust further north this season? Will it even be a factor? It was in the past weeks but ITCZ was much further south in the past weeks.
Thanks freakster and skyepony! Very helpful. Looks like parts of Wake Co. NC got over 6 inches... My area got about 2 by the map. I'm curious to see the local TV station totals.
NORTH THAT IS!
quakeman55 ..Listen to Steve Lyons....he is an old surfer. I can't imagine anything that he could say that would not be accurate!
Lyons and the TWC can't say a lot about what they truly believe except inbetween systems. That is when you get their best!
Alec..actually that is not too bad! I just saw Lyons on TWC apologizing for no west coast swells!
Dammit, nothing to argue about. There must be something! Hmmm...... I think Beryl doesn't from until July.
Look at Jim Cantore....he looks totally black now!
Your TUNNELS would merley warm the deep ocean delaying tropical storm activity for a time and then eventually the gulf would be warm all the way to the bottom and unleash a horrific storm the likes of which we have never seen.
come on guys.. lets get some Beryl predictions going.
Abyone think any of these waves have potential?
cyclone if the warm water would stay above the cool layer then what is the point?

(Yay! We found something to argue about)

P.S. please don't curse.
136. Alec
cyclonebuster I know for a FACT that your tunnel idea would do ZIP, NADA, NOTHING to help out anything! Here's a real quick lesson about our environment:

Whenever there's an imbalance nature will find a way of balancing it back out. Simple concept.


Trying to interfere with our oceans, climate and whatnot will get thrown right back at us as nature will counterbalance it out, which may mean consequences to both us and the environment.....enough of the ramble please!
TPA. No. None, nada zip zilch. I think the tropics will be dormant until July.
That heat has to go somewhere Cyclone and if not into the hurricane than it just stays in the ocean and everytime those tunnels are turned on they prevent the ocean heat from being dissipated through the natural heat engines we call hurricanes. The gulf (or other body of water) would slowly get warmer and warmer until eventually your tunnels have no effect.
waiting, waiting, waiting for the next one... the Caribbean is simmering, but no clear center to be seen.. waves coming from Africa.. out of season.. no clear focus now that Alberto is gone.. let's keep it civil and friendly while we're waiting, ok?
Has anyone actually read the latest Tropical Discussion? Check out this gibberish!
Link
Because eventullay, as I said, the tunnels will become ineffective due to the cunulative heat build up in the ocean that they will cause.
The real issue cyclone is that cyclones are a natural phenomenon we have to deal with. They aren't going away. We can build better structures, better power infrastructure, not build right on the coast, etc. We never should have in thbe first place. there is no reason to try and mess with these natural wonders, destructive as they may be.
well folks, if you're into ranting that's fine - see you tomorrow..
TampaCat5..Yes...complete nonsense. I mean you would almost believe that the NHC is just looking at the same satellite shots I have! I just expect more info than this nonsense.
Nope! Sunlight doesn't reach the Oceans deep waters thus always kepping them cool.

LOL. The heat has to go somewhere, and it will slowly get deeper and deeper into the ocean. Nothing to cool it down down there, not even lack of sunlight. Once it gets warm down there, we are all in big trouble. The deep warm water won't rise because the water on top will be just as warm.
OMG..global warming discussion again! Tell me how global warming created Alberto with all SST'S below normal? How did that happen? Howq?
Actually drewl they are looking at the same satellite shots. There is really not more info avaiklable to them, besides wind shear analysis and the models. That's about all that is needed.

And snowboy, what's wrong with a little ranting! What else is there to do? See ya tomorrow!
TampaCat5...still dribble stuff!
Cyclone, I don't know if we are truly making the climate worse. We have much better media so when something bad happens in the climate we all know about it. I think the biggest change that has occured is the media and populatiom growth. I'm really skeptical that meterolgical phenomenon are getting any worse, nor that they will if the overall global temps increase a few degrees.
Drewl, yeah, heae's a better version.

A FEW WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC. THEY AINT GONNA AMOUNT TOO MUCH. SOME HIGHS, SOME LOWS, YOU KNOW, SAME OLD, SAME OLD. IF I SEE SOMETHING EXCITING I'LL POINT IT OUT.

FORECASTER PASCH
TampaCat5...anytime you don't think that the NHC/TPC has access to stuff you do not....you would be inaccurate in that statement! They have the total heads up on wherever any storm is supposed to go! Why do you think they have been so accurate the past couple of years? You have really missed what is really happening if you believe they can be so accurate. You should go construct some tunnels with cyclone!
Cyclone, OK, I think I've learned something. Less intense cyclones at landfall at the expense of more intense cyclones over open water. I still don't think we should do it.
LOL TampaCat5, that will send me off to sleep with a smile..
lol drewl. No we have access to it all, they just have more experiennce. Well they probably have BETTER access to some things no doubt, but I think it still boils down to forecaster experience and skill.
For those wondering what the Saharan Dust will do, check out the Water Vapor Loop...


There is none. The Eastern Atlantic is as moist right now as I've ever seen it. This time last year, that water vapor loop was covered in yellows and golds, telltale signs of dry, dusty air. This year there is none, and there's even a wave coming off the coast of Africa just below 15N, almost parallel with the Cape Verde Islands. There is some strange stuff going on out there this year...
And I notice, Savannah the shear is forecast to be pretty low for a while over the south atlantic. I wonder what the inhibiting factors are right now?
yeah, after seeing this pattern developing over the atlantic... i'm just hoping for another 1995, or atleast something comparable with an eastern bermuda high which recurves the cape verde storms away from the u.s.

btw - i'm curious if anyone who knows more about typhoon or global weather patterns can comment on this: There has only been 1 wpac system this year... usually there would be like 6-7 or so by now. I know that there is some degree of an inversive relationship between Atlantic and WPac activity, but does this dramatically low level of wpac activity spell anything specific for the atlantic? or is just another bad omen :P
I was wondering about that myself. Here we are in June and I haven't heard anything going on in WPac. Maybe everything is going to happen in the atlantic this year! :) or :( depending on your perspective.
SavannahStorm...yah, the eastern Atlantic is ripe and is not stopping. More waves are on the way. Just a matter of hours before something develops. If it can reach anywhere near northern Venezuela...it will develop.
E Atl is inhibited by moderate shear, marginal SSTs, and stable air.

There's certainly been WPAC activity...does no one remember Chanchu? You know, the Cat 5 that for a time was aimed at Hong Kong?
Randrewl. Freedom of speech says that the government cannot make a law restricting how you speak. This, however, is a website run by a private entity, and they *can* tell you what you can and cannot say, subject to banning from the site. Now, that being said, they probably won't - a while back it was mentioned by one of the head honchos at wunderground that they wouldn't be banning (generally) from Dr. Masters' blog.

Now - what you *can* do and what you *should* do are different things. Personally, I could care less about the language - but I know for a fact that a few of the members here are as young as 11-12, and there's simply no reason to use such language.

Oh, by the way, since wunderground is a U.S.-based organization, if a poster is from the U.S. also, U.S. laws apply.
Are there any models that show forecast stability? I have heard little mention of stability wrt to cyclogenesis.
Colby - check out the archieves on wpac activity - usually the wpac has 5-7 storms or so by this time. I believe Chanchu is the only one this year [there might have been another TS before april, i admit to not paying attention that early :)], but regardless, its extremely unusual. And the fact that it was a supertyphooon isn't significant - i believe there were 3 cat 5 supertyphoons by this time in 1994.
From the best I can tell the centers of circulation are at 74 w 17 n and 83w 13 n???

Nothing much on Cuban Radar yet
. These guys are in a building phase now that the shear is down again. They cant seem to get it together.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2006

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 16N79W...ABOUT 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. THIS LOW CENTER IS PART OF A BROADER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS OR SO. A LOW CENTER HAD BEEN SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY A FEW DAYS AGO...AND A TROUGH WAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA YESTERDAY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA SOUTHWESTWAR


NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA AS THE 16N79W LOW CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW ARE FOUND NORTH
OF 16N WEST OF 75W.


They put the top low way ahead of where I did.
Alberto is passing by Nantucket now, closer then what the NHC had forecasted for us and now he will be heading toward the Canadian Maritimes.
As ForecasterColby noted, there are readers as young as 11-12 who don't need to be confronted by the language found in several posts this morning... and I would include the fairly mild p****** contest.

As a matter of fact, despite the fact that I am 50 years older than those 11 year olds, I don't need to find this sort of thing when I get up and check the blogs with my morning coffee before going to work. This may officially move me into the category "old fogey", but so be it. PLEASE, folks: argue and confront and propose and disagree all you want, but let's leave the ego battles and the... ummm.... unnecessary language out of it.
TO ndcohn:
I wonder what those who say that global warming is causing increasing huricane activity would say about the lack of cyclones in the western North Pacific?
shoreacres

You are talking to a wall.

Use the 'obscene' link below the posts and let the modmins take care of the problems.

Didn't Alberto cross over from the Pacific?????
199. haydn
No, read Dr Master's blog entry above.
200. WSI
TampaCAT5....

Theta-E can be used to diagnose instability. In fact, some of the model runs on the FSU page show forecasts for Theta-E. I have not heard them used much on here, but they obviously have some utility, or they would not be listed there.

Also, the cyclone genesis page shows some instability charts are well.

Hope this helps.


weathercore.com
contains other model links, and other weather links as well.
201. haydn
I enjoy reading this blog. Some of the comments in previous posts disturbed me. Tunnel arguing and profanity don't belong here.
202. WSI
Tunnel arguing and profanity don't belong here."

Agreed. Unfortunately some want to spoil the environment for everyone. Use the "obscene" reporting feature at will. It seems to help some.
Cyclonebuster should stay in his own blog... however, nobody wants to read about his tunnels so he talks about them in here. If he wants to talk about them, at least he should talk about something that is practical, although many, including me, think that it is a very bad idea to try to modify nature (which we are already doing with CO2, deforestration, pollution, etc).
204. haydn
WSI,

I looked at those links. Informative. Right now a large wave has come off Africa above 10N. It looks strong. I'll have to bookmark the page and come back to it in a day or two and see if it predicts anything from that wave.
205. WSI
"including me, think that it is a very bad idea to try to modify nature "

Yeah, modification has a way of backfiring. Nature has been around a while, LOL!
Area of 81-84W/13-15N is worth watching! Conditions are ripening.
I saw the profanity that came up on this blog last night. Come on people, at least act civilized!! It's ok to disagree with one-another, but at least do it in a civil manner. We can always agree to disagree. That's what this blog is for, the discussion of ideas!
208. WSI
Thanks haydn, glad you liked them. My bookmark fold is huge, LOL! I put all of them on the link site I posted, so I use it more than the bookmark folder now.
Regarding where Alberto came from, the NOGAPS model has been following the low that became Alberto since May 25 (00z May 26), 5 days before the wave that Msaters mentioned moved off of Africa. Link
Speaking of cyclonebuster and his tunnels, do any of you remember last year (or the year before) when there was this guy that suggested "seeding" hurricanes with "dyno-mat" (some stuff that was supposed to absorb water and is biodegradable). Every time a storm weakened, he said that he had went out in his cessna and seeded the storm!! LOL :)
211. WSI
"seeded the storm!"

LOL! Yeah, that sounds like a story, LOL!

People have to remember that tropical systems function to remove heat from the tropics. And also they CAN be beneficial, such as Alberto helping the drought and wildfires in many areas. Yes, they do harm, but they also exist to serve a purpose.
212. haydn
MichaelSTL,

I looked at the link. We'll have to see how it predicts Beryl.

I'm signing off till later.
76W 17N Check out the infared. You can see a deffinit Swirl. And there is even some convection flaring up on the southwest side of it.
including me, think that it is a very bad idea to try to modify nature "

Yeah, modification has a way of backfiring. Nature has been around a while, LOL!



Doesn't that make you wonder how we ended up here? If you think of the vast history of nature and the universe, we are truly an afterthought in the grand scheme of things...


Hello to all. Brand new to posting, but have enjoyed reading the insight you all bring to the discussion since I found Dr. Master's Blog during Katrina last year.
Hellsniper-
Yes, I too noticed the spin at 76-77W/17N. This will be interesting to watch over the next 24 hrs.
Yesterday's Florida fire reports are in~ 5 new fires burned 13.7 acres. The exciting part though is we have 97 active fires left burning on 11,298.8 acres which means Alberto has reduced our uncontained fires by almost 1/2.

There is still some muck fires burning, that would take 2 more Albertos to put out & they've warned it won't take much dry weather to get us back to where we where.

But it looks alot better so I'm laying the FL Fires blog to rest for now & discontinuing updates to focus on a Horses & Hurricanes blog I've been wanting to do.

dang, is that beryl below Jamaica? definately a swirl, even seem to see a little banding to the west!

does any model show this developing.... none i've saw yet.....

also, a similar track to alberto?
Trying to build another down here in the Caribbean for you guys but this one a bit more stubborn. LOL
anyone have a link for the modles??
Actually, according to informal scientific law, you have to prove that it does work, and until then, everyone will naturally assume that it doesn't work. Since you have neither the materials nor the money to put your idea into effect, we will just assume that it can not work.
224. WSI

"If you guys prove mathmatically Pasacl and Bernoulli won't work in my "TUNNELS"


Why don't you prove they will? Include research as well. We want data sets showing the benefit, as well as showing the environment won't be harmed. Computer modeling will help you. Then there has to be some testing in a controlled environment. Scientific method of course. Any harm to the envrionment = game over. Until you have this testing is done, and you are ready to present your report before us, how about dropping the tunnels. The burden of proof to show they WILL work is ON YOU. We have to prove nothing. You are the one trying to make the case here. Deal?
Here are the models that I use; the NWS models are here.
226. Alec
Like I said yesterday, nature always tries to get into a state of equilibrium....whatever we do, nature will respond to counterbalance whatever we do.....So attempts at reducing hurricanes or destroying them is a feeble attempt at wrestling with nature....You can't win!!!
227. WSI
"attempt at wrestling with nature....You can't win!!!"

Well said Alec.
I just logged on, and haven't checked the thread, so if the question has already been answered, I apologize.

Anybody have an opinion about the flare up of thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche? I know there is a low in the gulf, I live in the Houston Metro area and we experienced some nasty weather earlier this week as it moved into the Gulf.
230. Alec
dont think anything will come of it in the Bay....
Nor do I. Although the genesis page is pretty enthusiastic about it, giving it a 1% chance.
232. Alec
I give it 3.14% of 3.14% chance.....LOL
Do you notice something unusual here?

No dry air.
1% :) lol
235. Alec
cool....but the SST's in that region aren't too condusive for a Cape Verde storm...but then again Alberto threw out the rule book...lol
We CAN wrestle with nature .. we do it every day... the rate at which we are destroying our ozone and cutting down our rain forest is truely alarmeing. We are our own greatest enemy.. no other natural threat (tornando, hurricane, asteroid, solar flare, volcano) even comes close to threatening our well being as much as WE do. HUMAN BEINGS are the greatest threat this palnet has EVER had, and NOW more than ever. Hmmmm, lets destroy our ozone, lets chop down our rain forest and then WONDER why our polar caps are melting and many other unusal things are happening in nature?? seems obvious to me...
I'm rather new, but have been fasinated with weather all my life and more so as I get older. What do you think of the swirl/spin near 77W/17N? Looks like something is trying to brew there. Only thing brewing here in the panhandle of FL is my coffee!
It is more like a 1 to 1.5% chance. Notice that it also has the extratropical remnants of Alberto as a .4 to .7% chance. (map here)
Where's all the dry air that should be out there this time of year?
maybe when the Florida peninsula vanishes into the ocean we will realize something is'nt quite right...
241. Alec
We can't win the struggle...nature will try and counterbalance our attemps out(and that means havoc if it means melting ice caps for example).......basic law of nature.....
I don't think that SSTs are too cool; this map shows that a tropical storm can sustain itself practically everywhere south of 35 N and west of 22-23 W; which means all of the areas where storms form... of course, without any shear or dry air.
Sad & Depressing, isn't it?
245. Alec
I dont plan on getting into a debate about global warming here...
The first law of WU blogging is the law of chaos: eventually all posts will become discussions of global warming, politics, or Amber Alerts.

Would an unusually active June have the effect of draining heat from the gulf, and in some manner weakening any August or September monsters?

Remember in 2002 when Isidore plowed into Louisiana as a tropical storm, then Lili headed into the same waters south of Louisiana a week later. Lili went from a Cat4 to a Cat1 within 12 hours of entering the same waters, and it was partially attributed to Isidore having sucked a lot of the heat off the surface. How substantial and lasting is this sort of effect?
fjorner- if anything it might have an enhancing effect. The water in the Gulf is warm at the surface right now, but still wuite cool down deep. Storms like Alberto, which have little cloudcover to cool the surface water, only downmix the warmer water at the surface so that the average heat content only rises (like pouring a cup of boiling water into a bathtub of cold water). This makes the sun's warming effect all that much stronger with warm water well below the surface.
Hm.. Savannahstorm, I have a hard time grokking that.

Maybe Alberto had relatively less cloud cover than a bigger storm, but still, we're talking about a tropical storm with cloud coverage over >95% of the state of Florida.

Also, I was unaware that tropical storms pushed head DOWN as much as pulling heat into the atmosphere.
Boy, the circulation in the Atlantic took on a drastic change today. Especially the Caribbean. The low-pressure at 50 w 24 N that was drifting ENE is heading W. Everything else in the Caribbean crashed with the new WSW flow. The heavy shear is shifting more N in the western Gulf of Mexico.
How far west does the Bramuda High have to be to make storms curve into the gulf of mexico?
I never said anything about global warming... just stated the obvious as to what is FACTAULLY happening to our planet as we speak.. no denying the fact that at this current rate in aprox 10 years our polar ice caps will be all but gone... sux to be a polar bear or a penguin!! or a fish that depends coral reefs...
254. AZ
Not to get in the way of your "Facts" but you might want to read this.

http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/environment/waterworld.html

Didn't they find some evidence that Antarctica was once home to Dinosaurs and Palm Trees?

hmmmm......

wonder who caused the global warming then? And who caused they ice ages? and WHO caused the ice to melt?

well, you get the idea! ;)
A rotating low is moving off Cuba into the southern gulf now. The pressure is high in the Gulf.

Theres nothing on Cuban radar but it should be near the western tip.
Thanks Dr. Masters was such a drastic change in the whole Atlantic in just one day.

I guess two areas of interest now would be the low and ruminants of circulation moving into the Gulf off Cuba and the other one a low system?? 58w 23 n that seems to be coming this way?? Is anyone else seeing different?
There is a new blog up.
Thelmores, back then, weren't all the continents on different places of the earth than they are today because of the shifting plates? (or something like that) So the climate might have been naturally less harsh and cold, and it could have been like some parts of South America today. A temperate rainforest, sort of. As for the ice ages and stuff, aren't there theories about meteors hitting the earth or volcanic eruptions hitting the earth or something to that effect? After all, one of the most supported theories about how the dinosaurs died is that most or all of the herbivores' plant supply died from lack of sun due to smoke or dust particles in the air, and then the carnivores could not eat the herbivores.
Florida, basically, the entire tropical atlantic and caribbean looks like it has the potential to form a storm cause of all the convection for this time of year.