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Alaska's Redoubt Volcano erupts; Midwest tornado outbreak possible today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on March 23, 2009

After many months of rumbling, Alaska's Redoubt Volcano finally exploded beginning at 11:38pm last night. Four separate eruptions have sent clouds of ash up to 50,000 feet high into the air. Redoubt is located about 100 miles southwest of Alaska's most populous city, Anchorage. Ash fall advisories were issued for the cities of Talkeetna, Willow, and Cantwell to the north and west of Anchorage until 8am AKDT this morning, and light ash has already been reported at Skwentna. The prevailing southerly winds are expected to carry the ash west of Anchorage today. However, if the volcano has ejected significant ash at a height of 35,000 - 40,000 feet, the southwesterly winds at that altitude would carry the ash over Anchorage (Figure 2). Redoubt last erupted between December 1989 - April 1990, and its ash clouds presented a major hazard to aviation. On December 16, 1989, Redoubt's eruption spewed ash into the air to a height of 14,000 m (45,000 ft) catching KLM Royal Dutch Airlines flight 867, a Boeing 747 aircraft, in the plume. All four engines stalled and the aircraft plummeted 13,000 feet before the pilot was able to restart the engines and land safely in Anchorage. For more information on the Redoubt eruption, check out the Alaksa Volcano Observatory home page.


Figure 1. The summit crater of Alaska's Mt. Redoubt crater showing rapidly melting glacier and enlarged "ice piston" feature on Saturday, March 21, 2009. Image credit: Cyrus Read, Alaska Volcano Observatory/U.S. Geological Survey.


Figure 2. Plot of ash trajectories originating at the Redoubt volcano (black star) at 8 am EDT Monday March 23, 2009. The initial eruption carried ash to a height of 20,000 feet (green line), so ash is expected to move NNE, passing west of Anchorage. Ash has already fallen at Skwentna (SKW) to the north of Anchorage. If the newer blasts were able to carry significant ash to 40,000 feet (pink line), the prevailing southwesterly winds at that altitude would carry the ash over Anchorage (ANC). Image credit: NOAA.

Significant tornado outbreak possible today
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is predicting a "Moderate Risk" of severe weather and tornadoes over eastern Kansas and northern Oklahoma today, as a strong Springtime low pressure system tracks across the Midwest. "Moderate Risk" is SPC's second-highest level of risk, and they expect severe thunderstorms with possible strong (EF2 or EF3) tornadoes will form late this afternoon along the cold front extending south from the low. This severe weather outbreak will be hampered somewhat by a lack of moisture, though. It's been very dry the first three months of 2009, which has made this year's tornado season about 50% less active than usual. Follow the outbreak today on our Interactive Tornado Page and Severe Weather Page.

Jeff Masters

Tornado Volcano

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Fingers crossed SWFL/SRQ will get some rain.........hope MaNature doesn't have me on IGNORE -- Don't like seeing my state wearing red......
Waiting for daylight in Alaska - really want to see whats doing on the cam
Thanks Dr.Masters,
I do not remember the Boeing 747 in 1989, (still a little pre-occupied with the Hugo clean up, I suspect). In light of the recent Hudson River landing, it brings home the fact of just how incredibly trained and cool many of these pilots are.
surfmom can you post a link to the webcam. thanks
AKSnowLvr's Blog has Webcam & Seismic Readings


Alaska Volcano Observatory (has 2 webcms)


NWS - Volcano


Posted this on the last blog,
over the past few weeks the La Nina hasn't weekend it has infact drastically re-appeared, you can see by the anomoly chart it shows how it warmed, then starting around the 9th the anomolys have chilled, and this can also be visible on the SST maps.
Quoting surfmom:
Fingers crossed SWFL/SRQ will get some rain.........hope MaNature doesn't have me on IGNORE -- Don't like seeing my state wearing red......
Waiting for daylight in Alaska - really want to see whats doing on the cam


Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
Mirror Site
Current Home weather station data.

Florida is finally getting some much needed rain :) (Surfmom, hope you get some)

Good Morning everyone! What a night...Wow!
This does not sound good....

Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations
2009-03-23 06:30:07

Station RSO is no longer transmitting data as of 4:15am this morning. Data from other stations is intact. An ashfall advisory is in affect:
http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/volcano.php
This is the Current Ash path from 50,000ft

Quoting KEHCharleston:
AKSnowLvr's Blog has Webcam & Seismic Readings


Alaska Volcano Observatory (has 2 webcms)


NWS - Volcano


Is it still night there, or are the webcams not working ?? All are black....

We're expecting the prevailing winds to change this afternoon, so we're busy squirreling away anything we may need for the next few days. Nothing in Sterling so far (east of Soldotna/Kenai) but it's still very dark for another hour or so. This will be my first first-hand experience with this... yippee.
RE:12. AKSnowLuvr
I only wish that folks in hurricane prone areas were as well prepared as are you. Admirable and instructive.
http://www.adn.com/volcano/story/732796.html

Ash at 60K feet now...
Quoting AKSnowLuvr:
We're expecting the prevailing winds to change this afternoon, so we're busy squirreling away anything we may need for the next few days. Nothing in Sterling so far (east of Soldotna/Kenai) but it's still very dark for another hour or so. This will be my first first-hand experience with this... yippee.

May it be quick for you. I was in the ash from Mt. St. Helens - from Boise to Missoula & then across eastern WA. It was persistent & ate engines as well as surprising things like backpack & sleeping bags zippers. Cattle wandered in eastern WA with inches of it caked on their backs for weeks. Gritty, fiberglassy, skin irritating stuff that seeps in through any aperture. Ugh!
Quoting AKSnowLuvr:
http://www.adn.com/volcano/story/732796.html

Ash at 60K feet now...


This is a Major eruption at those heights...WOW! Weather patterns could change alot from this.
Keeper - Up to the roof and aim your snow machine at Redoubt, if you please.
Did Tonga and Indonesia's recent activity play a role in nudging Redoubt to erupt? Call it a tectonic frontal system ?
11. Starwoman "Is it still night there, or are the webcams not working ?? All are black...

Approximate sunrise/sunset times at the Redoubt - CI webcam for Monday March, 23, 2009
Sunrise: 07:58AKDT / Sunset: 20:26AKDT
It is now 07:11AKDT . Current visibility is also being obscured by snowfall.
It's just starting to get light. Overcast, currently 24°F. No snow right now, but it's in the forecast throughout the week.

I'm seeing conflicting reports about prevailing winds for this afternoon. This morning they were saying they would turn so that the peninsula would get ash... this morning's weather report on the local news shows it changing so the ash blows further west and away from the heavily populated areas. We're ready either way, but it would be nice if someone more knowledgeable than I am could post some wind flow charts for later today.
CI Webcam

Current visibility is also being obscured by snowfall.


Thank you!!
Redoubt webcams seem to be a bit busy today. So, much for driving up there, mapquest says 5,000 miles, 80 plus hours and $700 in gas. I will wait for the webcam access :)
They lost the closeup Web Cam......all the close monitoring instruments are not working....NOt a good sign.

Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations
2009-03-23 07:46:00

The eruption of Redoubt volcano continues.

Ash plumes generated by the explosive bursts so far have all drifted to the north.

Ashfall advisories are available on the National Weather Service site http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/volcano.php

AVO's web camera near the volcano is no longer functioning
Here is my Web site for Monitoring Redoubt! I updated for easy coverage..

TampaSpins Web Link
Rain, glorious rain in the Tampa Bay area! I was outside in it... it was wet and falling from the sky...

Of course, it only lasted an hour.. but WOW.. it was awesome...

In a probably related story, today I took a nail in my rear passenger side tire.. of course it was RAINING and I couldn't change it out for a spare...

Que sera sera...
Satellite of Redoubt

Yep... still cloudy... won't see much at all today. Especially with the webcams and webicorder out. :( I'm not going anywhere today. We lost power for an hour this morning, and it made me realize that we're not as prepared as we thought. We're still ok, but we got caught without extra feed for the animals and no extra gasoline. Pumps don't work without electricity. Stores were running credit cards old-school, and things are a bit of a mess. Here we stockpiled water, since pumps don't work without electricity, and only the gas stove in the living room works. I've got 3 incubators and 5 brooders with baby chicks that took all of the generator power, but now I have them situated that if it goes out again there will be no time lost getting them back under heat. :)
What an experience this has been so far... and that's WITHOUT ashfall! LOL!
This was interesting~ about big volcanos of artic circle in the area of Alaska~ the weather affects. Aerosols pretty much staying north of US & Europe since statosphere flows from equater to poles. But the theory is India will have a hot & dry monsoon season..
What a way to spend a birthday! I got called into work(for 3 hours) and every bottle in my store is covered with SAND! The wind is blowing at about 50 mph at the moment. I wish I had a flat top, that ought to be the official haircut for Ks residents!
Link

its not every day that you have a tornado watch and a blizzard warning in the same place
Next 6hr projected Ash fallout......


Just found a great loop of the fallout of Redoubt.....

Redoubt Satellite Link
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Link

its not every day that you have a tornado watch and a blizzard warning in the same place


Wow, your not kidding. 100% Blizzard and then 100% heavey snow, with a sprink of severe weather and chance of Tornado's as an appitizer. Throw in a Volcano and you have a grand slam. :)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just found a great loop of the fallout of Redoubt.....

Redoubt Satellite Link


Tampa, you are you still going strong. Did you get any sleep or are you just sprinkling the Folgers grounds directly on your cerial? º¿ª
Potentially of interest to Dr. Masters...

Ann Arbor News dies, reborn online

Mar 23 12:13 PM US/Eastern

The Ann Arbor News announced Monday that it will follow in the footsteps of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer by abandoning its daily newspaper format in favor of delivering stories online.

The 174-year-old Michigan newspaper, operated by the Booth Newspapers arm of Advance Publications, said it would publish its final print edition in July.

The daily newspaper will die only to be replaced by an Internet news operation, AnnArbor.com.

"This is a difficult day for all of us at The Ann Arbor News," publisher Laurel Champion said in a letter published in Monday's edition.

"As we say hello to AnnArbor.com, we will say goodbye to The Ann Arbor News."

The news website will be complemented by a "print product" two days each week, according to the publisher.

Severe Weather is breaking out as suggested.
TORNADO WARNING RAPID CITY SD - KUNR 348 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 334 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 334 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
TORNADO WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 330 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
TORNADO WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 327 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009
TORNADO WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 326 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009


The PBS show NOVA is showing an episode tomorrow (Tuesday March 24) about the retreating ice sheets:

Link
With greetings from Germany:

Information Statement from AVO

Beginning last night (Sunday March 22, 2009) at approximately 22:38 AKDT, Redoubt Volcano produced a series of five explosive eruptions that each lasted from four to thirty minutes. The last one ended at 5:00 AM AKDT this morning (March 23). National Weather Service radar, pilot reports, and AVO analysis of satellite imagery suggest that these events produced ash clouds that reached 60,000 ft above sea level (asl), with the bulk of the ash volume between 25 - 30,000 ft asl. Traces of ash fall have been reported in Skwentna, Talkeetna, Wasilla, and Trapper Creek.

AVO remains at Avation Color Code RED and Alert Level WARNING. Seismic unrest continues at Redoubt in the form of elevated volcanic tremor. NEXRAD radar data show that the last significant ash emission was concurrent with the final explosive event at 5:00 AM AKDT. Since that time, no ash has been visible in radar, suggesting that if ash emission is occurring, it is below approximately 13,000 ft asl and/or too fine to be detected. Poor weather at the volcano currently hinders visual observations.

Last night's explosive eruptions caused melting of the Drift glacier and greatly increased discharge down the Drift River. AVO plans a helicopter overflight to the area today to assess conditions at the volcano and along the Drift River. The explosions also destroyed one seismic station near the volcano's summit (RSO), and disrupted telemetry from AVO's obsveration hut. This telemetry outage affects the web camera, a continuous GPS station, and two broadband seismic stations. Repairs to this data link will be undertaken as conditions permit. Seven telemetered seismic stations surrounding Redoubt remain in operation.

The eruptions were preceded by approximately 60 hours of elevated seismicity in the form of discrete earthquakes under the volcano. AVO raised the Aviation Color Code/Alert Level from YELLOW/ADVISORY to ORANGE/WATCH on Saturday, March 21 at 22:09 AKDT. This increase in seismicity likely reflected the upward movement of magma towards the surface. Prior to this weekend, Redoubt had exhibited signs of volcanic unrest beginning in the Fall of 2008 which then escalated in late January, 2009. Last night's explosions were the first significant ash-producing eruptions of the unrest.

Further explosive activity could occur with little or no warning, and could occur intermittently for weeks or months. AVO remains staffed 24 hours per day will issue further information as it becomes available.

This looks bad.....Just to the East of the Spin will be the greatest threat!






All of this is at TampaSpins Link
That is not good Tampa that is a nasty looking storm system. Good thing there isn't any Tropical lows in the gulf or this one could have taken it.
my god its massive too are they usually this wide ranging?
everyone is gone lol im all alone always the same dang thing every time lol...
Here is a replay from the eruption of Redoubt last nite.....

47. P451
That looks like a very strong typical Spring Storm cropping up. They've even got us up for TStorms on Sunday way out here in New Jersey so you know this thing is going to be a big event for the center of the country.

Meanwhile, we have 13% humidity here. I don't believe I've ever seen that before. Bone dry. Fire warnings up.

Redoubt.....



National Weather Service doppler radar shows a large plume of ash during an eruption at Mt. Redoubt.
is the storm system expanding? one of its bands is heading towards all of Florida not much rain with but im wondering if its comman for one of these to reach all the down into So Fla?
anyone home?
Hello McFly anyone home?
don't talk all at once.
Hopefully redoubt doesnt erupt too much, anyone remember the following year or 2 after Pinatubo(sp?) erupted in '92? We got a full summer of rain here in Kansas city, 3 days the entire summer it didnt Rain in 93. Flooding all over midwest. I even remember that we had a lot of snow over that winter too.
As for the weather headed my way, figure it will poor on me once I get out of school later tonite lol.

@tampa gotta hand it to you, your full of information :)
According the to the WRC, the central Gulf Coast will have the highest risk compared to normal. During a typical year, this area has a 59% probability of a hurricane strike. The WRC is pegging this year's probability of a hurricane strike (in Louisiana and Alabama) at 70%.

Following is how they describe the methodology used in developing the forecast:

The Houston-based Weather Research Center is one of a handful of organizations that make seasonal hurricane predictions. WRC uses a model called Orbital Cyclone Strike Index (OCSI) which uses the solar cycle [an indication of the solar system’s orbit] to predict the risk for coastal residents each hurricane season. The OCSI model is based on the premise that there are orbital influences that are reflected in the global circulation pattern on the sun as well as the global circulation pattern of the earth. These orbital influences are reflected in the 11.1 year sun spot cycle.
This storm system is rather large in size.
2009 WRC OCSI FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST WRC OCSI CLIMATOLOGY
Mexico 40% 40%
Texas 40% 51%
Louisiana to Alabama 70% 59%
West Florida 60% 71%
East Florida 30% 41%
Georgia to N. Carolina 50% 56%
East Coast of US 30% 36%
Gulf Oil Blocks 90% 88%
Other 2009 Predictors from WRC’s OCSI:
OCSI Forecasts
Number of Named Storms: 7
Number intensifying into Hurricanes: 4
Number of Hurricane Days: 7
Number of Tropical Storm Days: 47
US Landfalls: 3
Cat 3 or Higher Storms in the Atlantic: 50%
The risk of tropical cyclones occurring in the Atlantic by month is:
May 10% - June 50% - July 30% - August 80% - September 100% -
October 100% - November 40%
The 2009 forecast is based on the activity in the following years: 1879, 1890, 1902, 1914, 1924, 1934, 1945, 1955, 1965, 1977, 1987 and 1997.
Someone the other day referenced there would be another following this one that could be stronger. This is a big boy for sure.
Talking about the storm rumbling in the plains here Ossgss? I wouldnt be surprised. This one gonna lay a hurtin on us with a lot of rain even though its been rather dry last few months. I expect a fair amount of flooding and some flash flooding near here (kansas city)
okay so at least it isn't just me lol just that i've never seen one have band this large in a while its going from Canada to Florida.
Yeah fortunately there isnt alot of moisture in the air or it would be a very bad storm system. Dew points arnt too high either.
Quoting Vortex95:
okay so at least it isn't just me lol just that i've never seen one have band this large in a while its going from Canada to Florida.


Kinda looks like this without a name ah ?

Quoting Midweststorm:
Talking about the storm rumbling in the plains here Ossgss? I wouldnt be surprised. This one gonna lay a hurtin on us with a lot of rain even though its been rather dry last few months. I expect a fair amount of flooding and some flash flooding near here (kansas city)


No MWS -- after this current storm was my take. I think it was Skyepony that referenced the next one could be a doosey. I sure wish they had spell check on this site. :)
With cape values exceeding 3000j/kg, Friday will be an interesting day

You and me both, my spelling isnt always up to par. If we get enough moisture available, the next one will probably be pretty harsh. seems to do that around late march, systems line up to pound us. Probably will be one that hits us this weekend or early next week from the looks of it.
lots of signatures showing up on these radars. 3+ inch hail. Going to be a long night for some. I hope the best. Link
Its nice not having to worry about severe thunderstorms in S Fla there usually on the weaker side if they do arise but then again we do have those things called Hurricanes... :D
Quoting Vortex95:
Its nice not having to worry about severe thunderstorms in S Fla there usually on the weaker side if they do arise but then again we do have those things called Hurricanes... :D


Unless we get a bunch more rain, it will be firestorm season here in Bradenton.
Ossgss Thats a long solid line of severe storms. How long would you say a band like that lasts over a given area 20-30 mins?
fires are common but small here or in the everglades it rarely threatens urban areas. But where you live with less humidity a lot of fires and big ones can spring up.
Quoting Vortex95:
Ossgss Thats a long solid line of severe storms. How long would you say a band like that lasts over a given area 20-30 mins?


Your guess would be as good as mine. They are moving pretty quickly. My best guess would be 3 beverages of choice. Perhaps I should test my theory starting now. º¿ª
We have some muck fires north and east of here that can be real problems. They can actually smolder for years from what I understand and can be difficult if not impossible to put out.
Those vortex signature are showing up like popcorn in the midwest. That is scary. Hunker down out there.Link
hmmm yes very much so. Going to have a windy night here gusting in to 30s at times but nothing as bad as the midwest.
ur right I saw at least 10 vortex sigs in there.
well I just found out my area is under A......... Pollen Alert ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!! lol.
Quoting Vortex95:
well I just found out my area is under A......... Pollen Alert ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!! lol.


Not that ! It is finally letting up here on the pollen front. Thankfully, I tried Clariton this year and it actually worked. I still have skin on the end of my nose this year instead of a Rudolf senario.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 6:30am AEST on Tuesday the 24th of March 2009

At 4 am EST Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Jasper [Category 1] with central pressure
995 hPa was located near latitude 17.6 south longitude 158.0 east, which is
about 1010 km east northeast of Mackay.

The cyclone is moving east southeast at about 32 kilometres per hour.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER, CATEGORY 1, is located in the eastern Coral Sea well
away from the Queensland coast and is expected to maintain its current intensity
as it moves to the southeast. TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER poses NO IMMEDIATE THREAT
to people in coastal and island communities along the Queensland coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 am EST today.

FurterMet your post at 63 has expanded the Blog width. Please fix or delete it. Sorry, Thanks!
79

I should say thanks to you, for anything that is detrimental to this blog should immediately be dispatched.
Quoting futuremet:
With cape values exceeding 3000j/kg, Friday will be an interesting day



Damn!
3000j/kg?!?!
Combine that with very High Instability, High Dew Points, Lift Indices between -4 and -6, Strong Wind Sheer, Omega Values off the chart,a Rapidly Deepening Surface Low, A Powerful mid to Upper level Trough, and a Forceful Enviroment.

Knowing that I would say we could see a very nasty and Unforgetful Severe WX Outbreak and Heavy Rainfall event for the Deep South.Astonishingly the models are in great agreement for 6 days out.Especially the GFS and NAM.

WATCHOUT!

81

This will probably be the first significant outbreak of the year
Quoting futuremet:
79

I should say thanks to you, for anything that is detrimental to this blog should immediately be dispatched.


You keep doing the good job my friend....
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Damn!
3000j/kg?!?!
Combine that with very High Instability, High Dew Points, Lift Indices between -4 and -6, Strong Wind Sheer, Omega Values off the chart,a Rapidly Deepening Surface Low, A Powerful mid to Upper level Trough, and a Forceful Enviroment.

Knowing that I would say we could see a very nasty and Unforgetful Severe WX Outbreak and Heavy Rainfall event for the Deep South.Astonishingly the models are in great agreement for 6 days out.Especially the GFS and NAM.

WATCHOUT!



Yep heads could be spinning on Friday and Saturday.
This will be interesting in the Texas Border states.

Live coverage of developing tornados from Oklahoma.Includes chopper coverage


news9

News4
Thats my luck its updating now.....LOL
You have mail tampa
Quoting hurricanejam:
Live coverage of developing tornados from Oklahoma.Includes chopper coverage


news9

News4


That is some great coverage and live video...wow
Quoting futuremet:
With cape values exceeding 3000j/kg, Friday will be an interesting day



It will be an interesting day Futuremet.
Quoting TampaSpin:


That is some great coverage and live video...wow


You guys are all hogging the bandwidth to the streams :)

J/K,

Cant get a connection to the media, so, maybe I am not kidding ???

On the big storm front this weekend, if what you have shown moves a bit South, could we have a storm of the century senario?
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
High Seas Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER (CAT 2)
10:50 AM EST March 24 2009
===========================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasper, Category Two [985 hPa] located at 17.3S 158.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
240 NM eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM northeast quadrant
300 NM southeast quadrant
300 NM northwest quadrant
240 NM southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.9S 160.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 20.5S 161.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 21.2S 160.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 19.9S 158.1E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Remarks:
============
CDO pattern with possible 0.5 banding feature based on GMS-5 2130UTC VIS and IR, yielding a DT of 3.5. Upper trough over the Coral Sea expected to move the system to the southeast for at least the next 24 hours. Quikscat at 22:52UTC shows 50 knot winds in the southern semicircle [most, but not all, rain affected].
Tampa that same thing heading into texas hits us as well?
91. DO NOT EVEN UTTER THAT lol! water was inches from entering my house back then never again!!!
After seeing this...I am actually speechless.

I doubt I will be around much for the next little while... I won't be able to hold my tongue.
Quoting Vortex95:
91. DO NOT EVEN UTTER THAT lol! water was inches from entering my house back then never again!!!


I would not wish that on anyone.

Gotta ask with that type of intensity and our inability to predict where that much energy can end up. ®¿®
95. Its Fox News they love making fun of things they consider "weak" conservatives believe it to be true and this is another that would affirm it but after so much time in one area I would want a year off too.

Don't take it so hard thats the conservative viewpoint of it and besides red eye on fox news is more loosey goosey and is not really ment to be pollticially correct in anyway since its on at such late hours.
Quoting Orcasystems:
After seeing this...I am actually speechless.

I doubt I will be around much for the next little while... I won't be able to hold my tongue.


We don't claim fox news, they belong with the rest of the loonies.
lol yeah those are the "yoohoo" conservatives 80% of Americans would rather be in Canada anyways if it wasn't so cold :P.
Quoting Orcasystems:
After seeing this...I am actually speechless.

I doubt I will be around much for the next little while... I won't be able to hold my tongue.


Remember this little item. If you don't give someone or something the power to bother you, it can't. That's a fact.

I would guess the market share on that show is .000000001% and those that watched were probably just channel flippers, --- not me. :)
Wait a minute, I did flip through that and if that stat is correct,,,,, I was the only one that hit that channel in that time slot. Not to worry, not a single person ever saw it then, until tonights re-run.
Quoting Orcasystems:
After seeing this...I am actually speechless.

I doubt I will be around much for the next little while... I won't be able to hold my tongue.


I not Canadian and I am going to need DUCK TAPE
Ok, how about that weather in the mid section of the US, wow. Anyone?
Quoting Ossqss:
Ok, how about that weather in the mid section of the US, wow. Anyone?


Ya that deserves a wow.
Just looked at it a bit more its typical fox news dark humor its basically a joke segment to poke fun at canada it seemed to fail miserably at many a person who saw it as being humerous.

Kinda like when Glenn Beck talked about grinding up illegial aliens and turning them into gas or somthing like that.
That's sad...
anyway NO storm of the century I'll use all my powers to prevent it!!!
Looks like things calmed down near KC. Not the popcorn vortex senario we saw earlier noth west of them. Link
look closer looks like KC may get another wave soon -0-0-
Quoting Vortex95:
anyway NO storm of the century I'll use all my powers to prevent it!!!


Ok, it can't hurt. CUL8R ª¿ª
was looking at on of ur ealiar posts oss and a possible derechio event is possible in severity but wind sheer would have to be at a moderate to low level if its too high then it may not be as bad and the event would not be able to occur.
btw this is what I meant by derechio Link
Orca...it's just the death rattle of the right wing losers down here...
the pattern in the model reminded me of it.
don't get me started on either wing they annoy the snot out of me :P.
this is nuts the more I compare the model tampa posted and the subtropical derechio of 93 they look too similar. *gulp*
Man, this looks cool. Definitely on my list to brush up on when **(or if!)** I get the time.

Considering the die-hards that are in here this time of year, we should cover some of the chapters...yaddaya think Doc M?

"The COMET Program is pleased to announce the publication of "Chapter 5, Tropical Variability", of the online textbook, "Introduction to Tropical Meteorology". This textbook is being developed over time and its chapters are being published incrementally. This is the fourth chapter in the book to be published. Please follow this link to open the textbook: http://www.meted.ucar.edu/tropical/textbook/. The chapter covers sources of intraseasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in the tropics. Learners will become familiar with:

- Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) formation, observation, impacts, and prediction
- Characteristics of equatorial waves (Kelvin, Rossby, Mixed Rossby-gravity) including structure, movement, and impacts on tropical weather and tropical cyclogenesis
- New methods of forecasting the MJO and equatorial waves
- The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) including its phases, evolution, observations, and global impacts
- Theories of ENSO (from Bjerknes SST-wind feedback theory, to recent theories such as the delayed oscillator and chaotic theories)
- Forecasting ENSO including different model types, strengths, and weaknesses
- Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) discovery, cycle, and impacts
- Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) discovery, monitoring, and impacts
- Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) behavior and impacts on the tropics and extratropics
- North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its potential impacts on tropical variability

The chapter uses a variety of strategies, from graphics and animations, to critical thought questions and interactions, review questions, and a quiz. Each section has links to additional sites and resources that augment the material presented in the chapter. The material has been reviewed for scientific accuracy and academic level appropriateness by a scientist and a professor with expertise in tropical meteorology and remote sensing. This chapter includes graphics and a companion print version in PDF format. The intended audience for the online tropical meteorology textbook comprises undergraduate and early graduate meteorology students, current operational or prospective tropical forecasters, and students interested in tropical meteorology. "
117. what is your view of a subtropical derechio event occuring if you have one?
Gutfeld needs DUCT TAPE!
Quoting surfmom:


I not Canadian and I am going to need DUCK TAPE
Quoting Vortex95:
btw this is what I meant by derechio Link
\\\\\

Looking at the previous graphic with respect to enegry potential and the sat replay item in your link. We are only a few hundred miles off at this point. Encourages me to track it if nothing else.
Quoting Ossqss:
\\\\\

Looking at the previous graphic with respect to enegry potential and the sat replay item in your link. We are only a few hundred miles off at this point. Encourages me to track it if nothing else.


BtW, if you did not check out that link, your missing some amazing stuff about 40 sec into it. That line of storms was increadable over Florida on that day. E

2nd hand Link
Link

This will be my response to a derechio event rofl.
Take a look at how the line of storms were affected by Tampabay. Swept back. Perhaps some unusual weather linkage with how Hur Charlie moved irradically sideways. Path of least resistance. Just a thought.

I would suggest hittin mute .



Quoting Vortex95:
btw this is what I meant by derechio Link

I remember that storm. Was living just North of Atlanta. Us Yankees pulled out our cross country skies and even shoveled the driveway. Neighbors laughed. Of course they were right the 11 inches of snow disappeared in about two days!! But hey in NH when it snows you shovel!
we sure could use the rain down here in FL if a subtropical derachio develops like in 93's storm..
NEW BLOG ENTRY POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
Heads up to all the people in Florida there's a delta 2 rocket launching from the cape at around 4:30 am tonight!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting stillwaiting:
we sure could use the rain down here in FL if a subtropical derachio develops like in 93's storm..


I also remember the stories of flooding here in Pasco. Just checked out wikipedia..

A substantial storm surge was also generated along the gulf coast from Apalachee Bay in the Florida panhandle to south of Tampa Bay. Especially hard hit were the eastern portion of Apalachee Bay and coastal communities in Hernando County north of Tampa, where the coast was angled into the teeth of the approaching squall (see map).

Storm surges in those areas reached up to 12 feet (3.7 m); higher than many hurricanes. With little advanced warning of incoming severe conditions, some coastal residents were awakened in the early morning of March 13th to find the waters of the Gulf of Mexico rushing into their homes.[4] Overall, the storm's surge, winds, and tornadoes damaged or destroyed 18,000 homes and killed at least 26 people in Florida.[5]

Link

don't think we want the 9 foot storm surge!!! Rain YEAH we need it.
Another Eruption may be occuring..

It's definitely erupting again.
OMG it is erupting again.....WOW!
Amazing how the images were blocked by clouds, until it went off again. Now that's some force to clear out those clouds that fast.
AVO's website says this one has already reached 60,000 feet, but it looks to be hopefully calming down already.
Quoting Harls11:
Amazing how the images were blocked by clouds, until it went off again. Now that's some force to clear out those clouds that fast.


That was amazing.....wow. what a view.
So, how much did the globe warm due to this?
CO2?
Quoting Harls11:
AVO's website says this one has already reached 60,000 feet, but it looks to be hopefully calming down already.


Go to my web site for an a better closeup pic.

TampaSpins Web Link
alaska_avo A new explosive eruption has just occured at Redoubt starting at 0741 PM AKDT. Radar indicate a cloud height of at least 60,000 feet above sea level. We will put out more information as it becomes available. about 13 minutes ago from Twittermail
Tonite looks very similar to last nite before the big eruptions.
I saved those pics as it was erupting.
Nice blizzardcane animation.


Notsosure~ volcanos actually put out alot of sulfer & especially tropical ones~ tend to cool the earth for one or a few years because it is injectiong the atmosphere with aerosols.
2009-03-23 20:14:56 - VAN/VONA

Another phase of vigorous ash eruption at Redoubt Volcano began at 7:41 pm (AKDT). AVO remains at Aviation Color Code RED and Alert Level WARNING.

The top of the ash cloud is estimated to be at least 50,000 ft above sea level based on NWS radar. Winds in the vicinity of the volcano vary with altitude and are expected to carry the ash cloud primarily to the west and north. Seismicity has declined somewhat since the start of the event but remains elevated.
Thought I would re-post this:
Thanks SpayandNueter for getting the info. and sending to me.

Beachfoxx,

I am an animal disaster responder and worked the volcano in Chatien, Chili this past May. Good question about how to protect pets from ash fallout. The only real way is to remove them from the area, but this may be hard to do if you have large animals. After that, bring them indoors and seal all outside air intakes the best you can. Plastic sheeting and duct tape is good or using sheets and duct tape can work too. If you have a barn, that's a bunch of plastic and duct tape. Close the barn doors, outside stall doors, loft doors, etc. If you are evacuating from an ash fallout area, Put your pets in a carrier and cover it with a sheet and tape that down. Of course you don't want to use plastic in this instance!! But you can use plastic for horse trailers or livestock trailers as long as you leave some type of airflow. Keep some saline eye rinse around and flush their eyes several times a day, if you can't find any, use fresh water. Ash is very abrasive and can injure their corneas. If you are sheltering at home, seal off the house the same way and try not to take them outside if at all possible. Set up a Potty area inside with papers, they will use it eventually!! If you do have to take them out, do so for only VERY short amounts of time and then back inside. Rinse their eyes and brush the ask out of their fur to they don't ingest it when they lick or clean themselves. Make sure you rinse the pads of their feet too!!

Remember that ash will contaminate all the outside water supplies and any open food containers, uncovered hay or feed bins. Cattle or livestock should be brought into and area where there is no grass and only fed fresh hay or feed and that should only be what they will consume in a few minutes. If they eat grass that is covered in ash, you could have a big problem, also ponds, lakes and rivers will be full of ash, so you need to provide fresh clean water for them and keep that water source clean and clear of ash. If you are paying close attention to the wind direction, it is possible to time outdoor feedings or walking when the wind shifts away from you or is calm. I noticed in Chili that sometimes we would get pounded with ash, but a few minutes later the wind would calm or shift just a bit and it was much better.

Hope this helps with your question. Feel free to post on whatever blog you asked the question on. My friend sent me a copy of your question and I don't know where it was originally posted. But it is a great question and one that I have been worrying about since I saw the first reports of the volcano in Alaska.
Very nice compilation of info on your site, TampaSpin. :)
Quoting AKSnowLuvr:
Very nice compilation of info on your site, TampaSpin. :)


Thanks, i going to bed. Hopefully Redoubt does the same....I stayed up most of last night observing and i'm not doing it tonite...LOL Good nite everyone
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
High Seas Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER (CAT 2)
2:50 PM EST March 24 2009
===========================

At 2:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasper, Category Two [985 hPa] located at 18.7S 160.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
===============
100 NM northeast quadrant
240 NM southeast quadrant
240 NM northwest quadrant
100 NM southwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM northeast quadrant
300 NM southeast quadrant
300 NM northwest quadrant
240 NM southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.5S 161.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 21.3S 162.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 21.7S 160.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.0S 157.7E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Remarks:
============
Irregular VIS CDO 1.6 degrees in diameter yields DT3.0. MET and PAT suggest 2.5. DT used as final T. Expect SE steering to continue for 18 to 24 hours before a competing influence slows the system and ultimately turns it westward.

  • NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC NADI..
  • Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
    PERTURBATION TROPICALE 11-R
    10:00 AM Réunion March 24 2009
    ================================

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 11 [1000 hPa] located at 20.8S 41.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south-southeast at 8 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================
    12 HRS: 21.6S 41.8E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)
    24 HRS: 22.1S 41.5E - 35 knots (Tempéte Tropicale Moderée)
    48 HRS: 22.5S 40.8E - 55 knots (Forte Tempéte Tropicale)
    72 HRS: 22.9S 40.0E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

    Additional Information
    =====================
    The system is always showing a monsoon depression structure of winds with strongest wind far from the center. Convection is organized into two large clusters. Environmental conditions are favorable to intensification, the system remains under the upper level ridge, with a good polar inflow in the first part of period. The system is expected to track progressively more southward then slowing down east-southeastward.
    Orca post 95, what a bunch of tough guys. I wonder how much skin they have in the game. The only one I be afraid of is the women.
    Fiji Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number ONE
    TROPICAL CYCLONE JASPER (CAT 2)
    18:00 PM FST March 24, 2009
    ==================================

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasper, Category Two [980 hPa] located at 19.2S 160.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots close to the center increasing to 65 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours. Position FAIR based on Multispectral visible/infrared with animation.

    Storm Force Winds
    =================
    100 NM in the northern semi-circle
    240 NM in the southern semi-circle

    Gale Force Winds
    ================
    240 NM of the center in northern semi-circle
    300 NM in the southern semi-circle

    Overall organization increased past 12 hours. Cold convection erupted over low level circulation center. Latest SSMIS microwave imagery shows intense circulation with this cold convection. Outflow good to south but restricted elsewhere. Shortwave upper trough currently influencing system. A mid level ridge to the east steering system southeastward.

    Dvorak analysis based on irregular central dense overcast, Yielding DT=3.5, PT=MET=3.5, DT based on MET.

    Thus T=3.5/3.5/D2.0/24 HRS

    System currently under 20 knot shear but CIMMS indicates decreasing shear to the south. Global models agree on a southeasterly track before curving it southwest in the next 24 hours.

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================
    12 HRS: 20.2S 161.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
    24 HRS: 21.0S 161.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
    48 HRS: 21.5S 160.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
    For the SWFL Surfers:Warm and Humid on the way. Winds already getting a South component now. And we'll start to see that little S line. It's supposed to blow south for days in response to a gradient between the high in the ATL and the big storm over the plains. The little southy should get ridable at some point at the best S facers. I would think later Wednesday through Friday in the afternoons would be the best chance. Keep an eye on the cams and reports. The other bigger story is the swell on the EC. It will start to clean up at certain spots as the wind digs further S. Friday looks like it could be really fun over there with the wind side-offshore, even some waves for the weekend over there.
    Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
    Mirror Site
    Current Home weather station data.

    Florida is finally getting some much needed rain :)

    Good morning folks, just a quick check in before off to work.
    Quoting Orcasystems:
    Florida is finally getting some much needed rain :)
    Hurray! Happy Rain Dance
    Orca is your critter cam off line?
    Quoting KEHCharleston:
    Good morning folks, just a quick check in before off to work.
    Hurray! Happy Rain Dance
    Orca is your critter cam off line?


    I haven't checked.. probably... but if it was online.. its only 6 am... still dark out. I will reboot it when SWMBO'ed gets out of bed.


    Its working... but it can only handle 5 people looking at one time. So its really slow right now
    155. Orcasystems
    Page loads now - and darkness abounds.
    I can not believe that I have gotten hooked on checking that webcam a coupla times a day. I have got to get a life.

    Later folks
    Quoting KEHCharleston:
    155. Orcasystems
    Page loads now - and darkness abounds.
    I can not believe that I have gotten hooked on checking that webcam a coupla times a day. I have got to get a life.

    Later folks


    ROFLMAO, thats why I built the pond.. when I get home from work... I go and sit out there for about an hour... its nice to go brain dead for awhile.
    160. P451
    Quoting NotSoSure:
    So, how much did the globe warm due to this?
    CO2?


    The opposite. The particles released into the atmosphere by large volcanic eruptions reflects sunlight and cools the earth. Depending on the eruption it could be from a single year to several years. Epic eruptions probably disrupt the planet for decades. Smaller ones have little to no effect.

    No telling what Redoubt has done in total or if when it will be done erupting.

    12 mile + columns of ash will get swept around the globe so if it continues we will see a temporary global cooling trend as a result.
    With Baseball starting in a few days.....is anyone running a Fantasy League..or is there any interest to Start one? Leave a comment on my Blog or on my Web Site Forum.
    Quoting Orcasystems:


    ROFLMAO, thats why I built the pond.. when I get home from work... I go and sit out there for about an hour... its nice to go brain dead for awhile.


    Orca, sounds like you have opportunity knocking for some remote control critter entertainment. Perhaps an infrequent sea monster appearance in the pond to stir things a bit. ?
    Quoting Ossqss:


    Orca, sounds like you have opportunity knocking for some remote control critter entertainment. Perhaps an infrequent sea monster appearance in the pond to stir things a bit. ?


    I don't know if SWMBO'ed is really a sea monster.. but I will see what I can do :)
    New Blog