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Alaska blizzard pushes 8-foot storm surge into Nome; Sean heads towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:47 PM GMT on November 10, 2011

The most powerful storm to affect the Bering Sea coast of Alaska since 1974 is slowly winding down today, after pounding Alaska's west coast and Eastern Siberia with hurricane-force winds, a destructive storm surge more than 8 feet high, waves up to 40 feet high, and heavy snow. The highest wind gust recorded during the storm, 89 mph, was at Wales at the western tip of the Seward Peninsula, which forms the U.S. side of the Bering Strait. Hurricane force gusts were observed at seven locations in Alaska:

Cape Lisburne... 81 mph at 7 am Wed
Gambell... ... ... 74 mph at 6 pm Tue
Kotzebue... ... ..74 mph at 6 am Wed
Point Hope... ... 78 mph at 5 am Wed
Savoonga... ... ..76 mph at 7 pm Tue
Tin City... ... ..85 mph at 12 am Wed
Wales... ... ... ..89 mph at 1:42 am Wed

A storm surge of 8.6 feet hit Nome, Alaska near 9 pm EST last night, pushed inland by sustained winds that reached 45 mph, gusting to 61 mph. Large waves on top of the surge encrusted with sea ice battered the coast, causing extensive damage and coastal flooding. Significant wave heights at the Bering Sea buoy north of the Aleutian Islands reached 40 feet during the peak of the storm. The last time Nome, Alaska saw a storm this strong was November 11 - 12 1974, when the city experienced sustained winds of 46 mph with gusts to 69 mph, a pressure that bottomed out at 969 mb, and a storm surge of 13 feet. The center of yesterday's storm moved ashore over eastern Siberia near 12 UTC with a central pressure of 945 mb, and later bottomed out with a pressure of 943 mb. The storm's central pressure had risen to 958 mb this morning, with the center of the storm now located north of Siberia over the Arctic.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image taken November 8, 2011, of the 943 mb Bering Sea superstorm that affected Alaska and Siberia. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Observed storm surge at Nome, Alaska (green line). MLLW = Mean Lower Low Water, the water level at the lowest tide of the month. The top storm surge of 8.6 feet occurred near 02 GMT this morning (9 pm EST November 9, 2011.) Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

My related blog posts:
Climate change likely to worsen erosion along the Alaska coast
The future of intense winter storms

Tropical Storm Sean
Tropical Storm Sean is on the move towards the northeast, towards a brush with Bermuda. Infrared satellite loops reveal that Sean has not changed much in organization this morning. The storm has a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center that is relatively shallow, and Sean has at times been able to close off an eyewall, and has a ragged-looking eye. Bermuda radar shows one strong rain band from Sean has affected the island, with the bulk of Sean's heavy thunderstorms well to the island's southwest. Sustained winds at the Bermuda airport have been under 30 mph this morning, and Bermuda picked up 0.08" of rain yesterday, and 0.24" as of 9 am EST today. Sustained winds at buoy 41048, about 300 miles west of Bermuda were 40 mph at 7:50 am EST. Strong upper-level winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over Sean, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Ocean temperatures have fallen to 25°C (77°F), which just below the 26°C threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to maintain its strength.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Sean.

Forecast for Sean
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts wind shear will remain about where it is now through Friday morning. However, ocean temperatures will gradually cool to 24°C during this time, and it is questionable whether Sean will have a favorable enough environment to strengthen into a hurricane. The computer models show little development of Sean, with none of our reliable models predicting it will become a hurricane. Bermuda is the only land area that need concern itself with Sean, as the storm is now caught in a trough of low pressure that will accelerate the storm to the northeast. The center of Sean could pass close enough to Bermuda to bring the island heavy rain squalls and sustained winds of 40 - 45 mph on Friday. NHC is giving a 52% chance that Bermuda will receive tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph. Wind shear will rise to 30 - 50 knots on Friday, which should be able to rip the storm apart by Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I can't wait to see pictures from Alaska; I imagine there is some pretty intensive and extensive damage.
Nome etc is not out of the woods yet; there's another deep low developing SW of the Aluetians this morning headed on the same track. CMC's Friday afternoon MSLP is 961 mb and deepening, just W of Nome at that time.
what could be the last recon of the season is up


Link
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters! Just glad the people of coastal Alaska were smart enough to evacuate! Damages will be unreal, but at least the loss of life will be kept to a minimum.
Wow, 8 ft storm surge, 40 ft waves, sounds like a Cat2+ hurricane in the GOM. And adding blizzard conditions on top of that with ice on the waves?! Nuts!

But I guess the residents 45+ in age, that have been there the whole time, can remember the last time in '74. Kinda like remembering Betsy or Camille. It happens, but not real often.
Thanks Jeff...
Coastal Erosion and the Threat to Kivalina, Alaska

…the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) explains that villages like Kivalina used to have a natural protection against erosion because “colder climates can reduce beach retreat during the winter when sea ice forms along beaches and acts as a buffer. The beach itself can also freeze providing additional protection from wave action. Along much of the coast of Alaska, the sea used to be covered by ice more than half of the year, reducing the annual rates of shoreline retreat. . . Significantly increased global temperatures extend the season of ice-free ocean, thus providing greater opportunity for storm influence and possibly greater land loss.


Impacts and Effects


Kivalina is dealing with these impacts first-hand. “We’ve been noticing changes to the environment over the past several years. The way we live depends on the environment and what it provides for us in terms of food and sustenance. Because we harvest seasonally, we’ve noticed that some harvesting seasons were starting earlier than normal. It wasn’t something that caused a whole lot of concern at first; we just had to adapt or miss the season. With the erosion problem, changes have happened rather suddenly. We battle Mother Nature, and we lose each time. And now, our people have lost their peace of mind. We’re afraid now when we get our fall sea storms. In the past the sea would freeze without fail (beginning in October) and provide a natural buffer to the coastline, protecting it from the vicious fall and winter storms that affect this area naturally. Now, due to the changing climate, the seas are sometimes not completely frozen even in the middle of December”
Quoting Patrap:


Happy 236th B-day to all the United States Marines, Active, former, and those gone to rest.


Here, here. Thanks to every last one of them.

On that note, I just love this.

Those sidewalks and curbs can be dangerous!

Hoo-rah !
Seastep, thanks for making me laugh while drinking coffee. I'll be cleaning my monitor now...
:D
Your welcome. :)

Been waiting for an opportunity to post that.
Looks like Sean has taken a turn due E. Certainly in the past 2 1/2 hours.
17. MTWX
Quoting NorthofAtlanta:


Semper Fi Pat, third generation here.

Army and Air Force throughout my family, but I support all of my brothers and sisters in arms!!! Happy Birthday Marine Corp!!
NorthofAtlanta,MTWX,

..thanks for you and your Families service to America.
982mb
21. MTWX
Quoting Patrap:
NorthofAtlanta,MTWX,

..thanks for you and your Families service to America.

Thank you! Hope you guys have a great Veterans Day Weekend!
Quoting Seastep:


Here, here. Thanks to every last one of them.

On that note, I just love this.

Those sidewalks and curbs can be dangerous!



I'm not a marine but Hoo-Rah!
Recon confirms that Sean is a little stronger than previously thought in the pressure department, but winds are just shy of hurricane status...At least, from what I saw.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
100 PM EST THU NOV 10 2011

...AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS 65 MPH WINDS IN SEAN...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 70.0W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
24. N3EG
Quoting Seastep:
Looks like Sean has taken a turn due E. Certainly in the past 2 1/2 hours.


Waiting for someone to say "It's just a wobble. It's going west to Florida."

Guess you only hear that during peak season...
Where is the fool who puts red lines on these storms? This one is headed to Africa according to him...

RE RE
Quoting Patrap:


Happy 236th B-day to all the United States Marines, Active, former, and those gone to rest.


Semper Fi!! I was born at Quantico....and raised by a career Marine Corps officer...and my Father in law was an enlisted Marine....this is a High Holy Day in my family...my Dad, father in law, and several of their cronies are, at this very moment, observing an annual tradition together which involves a Marine Corps flag placed in the center of the table at their favorite watering hole in Atlanta...and which also, if the past is prologue....involves an embarassingly large amount of rye whiskey...
Quoting MTWX:

Army and Air Force throughout my family, but I support all of my brothers and sisters in arms!!! Happy Birthday Marine Corp!!


Ahmen brother! Happy B-day brothers and sisters.
Dire situation





TX is gonna have to have multiple hits next hurricane season to get outta this, entire coast line of TX.... is unprecedented....

Low pressure system in Pacific supposed to take a low lattitude route, should bring rain to TX next week, hopefully widespread heavy rains
wow where under a freeze watch in jacksonville and it is suppose to reach 38 tonight and 30 tommorrow night
Quoting RitaEvac:
Low pressure system in Pacific supposed to take a low lattitude route, should bring rain to TX next week, hopefully widespread heavy rains
This site was linked on CBC comments:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/09/dr-jeff-mas ters-gets-caught-up-in-the-full-on-media-stupidity /
I am guessing some Canucks are not as open minded as yours truely?
Quoting ycd0108:
This site was linked on CBC comments:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/09/dr-jeff-mas ters-gets-caught-up-in-the-full-on-media-stupidity /
I am guessing some Canucks are not as open minded as yours truely?


I'm getting a "Page not found" for this.
Sean isn't looking too amazing. He lost half an eye and most of his banding....



Now, I'm not sure how long this will last as the deep convection on the east side should wrap around to the west side and create banding again too. He doesn't look like a 65mph storm right now at least...
Looking at recon, no doubt in my mind that Sean became a hurricane yesterday and is on a weakening trend.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


I'm getting a "Page not found" for this.


This is the link: Dr. Jeff Masters gets caught up in the full on media stupidity

Added

This is what we all face when those that deny the science, concerning AGWT, try to invent their own form of science.
I have been following the news on this storm closely in my wu blog - Alaska Super Storm aka To Nome: Love, bf.

There have been no reports of severe damages or deaths so far. Mid morning, AKST, there are some Twitter rumors on a young man missing in the village of Teller. Reportedly, he was playing in the surf.

This is the worst damage report so far - Little Diomede Island and the village of Diomede, probably the only place in Alaska where you can see Russia from your house. What looks like a mountain in the background is Big Diomede Island, Russia.

On Diomede - see video - two anemometers clocked 93 mph wind, and there is damage...

FULL SCREEN is NOT for the feint of heart.


Diomede update from the Anchorage Daily News...

Winds of 93 mph were clocked late Tuesday and early Wednesday on Diomede. Neb Schmitt, a project manager for SKW Eskimo, an Arctic Slope Regional Corporation subsidiary company currently remodeling the village school, said the crew braced for the storm but "got a lot more than we anticipated."

Two anemometers on the island measured the hurricane-force blasts.

Company and city workers "took everything they could and moved it out of harm's way, stowed things as high as we could get," in advance of the storm, Schmitt said. "We didn't have too many options; Diomede is mainly a big rock, but we thought we'd be in pretty good shape." The storm was approaching from the south and the island is somewhat protected on that side.

But "by the time it got light it was obvious that there were serious problems. We just didn't appreciate what we were experiencing until we saw it."

Waves over 30 feet high wiped everything off the whole southern portion of the island, Schmitt said. Heavy equipment and at least two metal Connex storage units were claimed by the water. A Connex weighs about 2,500 pounds empty, he said. One of the units was full of steel. It was rolled into a mangled mess. An empty Connex was washed away along with other supplies and equipment, Schmitt said. "The old man of the sea's got 'em now."

The surge shoved logs and other debris into the village, 30 feet above sea level. Villagers had pulled their boats high on shore but at least one was now missing and probably lost for good, Schmitt said.

The waves broke into the water plant and the village's water storage tank had to be shut down. It hit the fuel station, though no fuel was spilled. "We were lucky in that regard," he said. "But everybody's safe and, unbelievably, the power is still on."

Several village structures have been damaged, he said, including the water plant, fuel station and washeteria...

Read more: http://www.adn.com/2011/11/09/2162157/storm-damage s-nome-roofs-sends.html#ixzz1dH6Rw89U


Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't wait to see pictures from Alaska; I imagine there is some pretty intensive and extensive damage.


LOL. Keep us posted.
The Power of Wind Driven surge is a amazing thing on 3rd Rock out.

"Im-pressive"
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
I have been following the news on this storm closely in my wu blog - Alaska Super Storm aka To Nome: Love, bf.

There have been no reports of severe damages or deaths so far. Mid morning, AKST, there are some Twitter rumors on a young man missing in the village of Teller. Reportedly, he was playing in the surf.

This is the worst damage report so far - Little Diomede Island and the village of Diomede, probably the only place in Alaska where you can see Russia from your house. What looks like a mountain in the background is Big Diomede Island, Russia.

On Diomede - see video - two anemometers clocked 93 mph wind, and there is damage...

FULL SCREEN is NOT for the feint of heart.


Diomede update from the Anchorage Daily News...

Winds of 93 mph were clocked late Tuesday and early Wednesday on Diomede. Neb Schmitt, a project manager for SKW Eskimo, an Arctic Slope Regional Corporation subsidiary company currently remodeling the village school, said the crew braced for the storm but "got a lot more than we anticipated."

Two anemometers on the island measured the hurricane-force blasts.

Company and city workers "took everything they could and moved it out of harm's way, stowed things as high as we could get," in advance of the storm, Schmitt said. "We didn't have too many options; Diomede is mainly a big rock, but we thought we'd be in pretty good shape." The storm was approaching from the south and the island is somewhat protected on that side.

But "by the time it got light it was obvious that there were serious problems. We just didn't appreciate what we were experiencing until we saw it."

Waves over 30 feet high wiped everything off the whole southern portion of the island, Schmitt said. Heavy equipment and at least two metal Connex storage units were claimed by the water. A Connex weighs about 2,500 pounds empty, he said. One of the units was full of steel. It was rolled into a mangled mess. An empty Connex was washed away along with other supplies and equipment, Schmitt said. "The old man of the sea's got 'em now."

The surge shoved logs and other debris into the village, 30 feet above sea level. Villagers had pulled their boats high on shore but at least one was now missing and probably lost for good, Schmitt said.

The waves broke into the water plant and the village's water storage tank had to be shut down. It hit the fuel station, though no fuel was spilled. "We were lucky in that regard," he said. "But everybody's safe and, unbelievably, the power is still on."

Several village structures have been damaged, he said, including the water plant, fuel station and washeteria...

Read more: http://www.adn.com/2011/11/09/2162157/storm-damage s-nome-roofs-sends.html#ixzz1dH6Rw89U




LOL. Keep us posted.


Now, if you will, imagine that same event happening in Washington State. A bit further south and it would have hit timber lands and a larger population density.
Sean has reached his peak and is now on a decline in intensity. Was probably a hurricane yesterday.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Now, if you will, imagine that same event happening in Washington State. A bit further south and it would have hit timber lands and a larger population density.


No need to imagine. It has happened. Columbus Day Storm 1962. Smashed my Dad's brand new Karmann Ghia.

I experienced storms similar to the Columbus Day Storm in my years in WA state, but those and none to this day matched or exceeded it. (edit for clarity) The absolute worst weather I ever experienced was a Nome blizzard.

Would love to stay and chat, but I have something I need to do this afternoon.
44. MTWX
Guess I better cover my tomatoes tonight!!

... Freeze warning remains in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am
CST Friday...

A freeze warning remains in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am
CST Friday.

* Timing: temperatures across the arklamiss region will drop
down into the mid and upper 30s after midnight tonight. Many
locations will later fall to or just below the freezing mark
for a few hours before 8 am Friday morning. Confidence in
freezing and below freezing temperatures is highest in
sheltered and rural areas.

* Impacts: short term exposure to freezing temperatures will havethe
potential to damage tender vegetation. In addition... some pets
unaccustomed to the cold could be negatively impacted if left
outdoors through the night.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill sensitive vegetation.

Looks like Sean is making a bee-line for BDA to me.
Quoting Seastep:
Looks like Sean is making a bee-line for BDA to me.


It sure seems that way. A wee bit south of the cone.
TS SEAN


Floater - Water Vapor Loop

..click Image for Loop.

Zoom is available,


Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


This is the link: Dr. Jeff Masters gets caught up in the full on media stupidity

Added

This is what we all face when those that deny the science, concerning AGWT, try to invent their own form of science.

What a bunch of crap they bashed dr masters for no reason and they had many flaws in their writing and I like how one person sarcastically said that global warming = more snow and cold... But it does in spots... This is what happens when uneducated people listen to the media. Oh and one was barking at the nhc for comparing it to a category 3 hurricane well if the person fully quoted it it said pressure wise I hate people like that.
Blog is slow...
Quoting Seastep:


Here, here. Thanks to every last one of them.

On that note, I just love this.

Those sidewalks and curbs can be dangerous!



I'll be darned, things like that used to happen to suspects sometimes when they resisted being taken into custody. :) Happy Birthday to the Marines, toughest men (and women) on earth.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Blog is slow...

Looks like your day's dull, just like me, it was a cold harsh rain I had to walk in, (8 blocks) it was freezing, and pouring, I took a black and white photo of the rain in my backyard, which is currently being approved. Check it out if you wanna
I posted in an earlier edition of the blog that I thought I was the only one here that didn't think Sean would turn into a hurricane. It's beginning to even less likely now. If he does turn into a hurricane, he certainly won't be one for long. That brings me to my question: what was the shortest lived hurricane on record? I'm sure someone here knows the answer.
Quoting Patrap:


Happy 236th B-day to all the United States Marines, Active, former, and those gone to rest.

Happy birthday to our United States Marines, Active, former, and those gone to rest who have fought in the past. :) Amen!
Nice looking storm in the Pacific heading for TX....bring it on
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nice looking storm in the Pacific heading for TX....bring it on


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

and

in case

I forgot

+
Boat racing again tomorrow. Should be a little more crowded than usual since it's a holiday. Rest in peace and thanks for many good shows Bob & Jeff!!! No one gets out of here alive.

Link
At 74, Sunday was to be Jeffs last run.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:Rest in peace and thanks for many good shows Bob & Jeff!!! No one gets out of here alive.

Link
Saw story & pic in the Post-Dispatch this a.m., trying to find out if this was the ocean cat that was at our resort at the Lake of the Ozarks on a poker run this summer. Very similiar if not. Dangerous sport, but they know it going in. Hope the rest of the races go well.
Quoting dabirds:
Saw story & pic in the Post-Dispatch this a.m., trying to find out if this was the ocean cat that was at our resort at the Lake of the Ozarks on a poker run this summer. Very similiar if not. Dangerous sport, but they know it going in. Hope the rest of the races go well.

Agreed, sad to hear they died.
Quoting dabirds:
Saw story & pic in the Post-Dispatch this a.m., trying to find out if this was the ocean cat that was at our resort at the Lake of the Ozarks on a poker run this summer. Very similiar if not. Dangerous sport, but they know it going in. Hope the rest of the races go well.


Could well be as JT and Bob are both from that neighborhood. It is probably the most dangerous motor sport but has gotten much safer through the years. Unlimited hydros in the 70's had about a 50 percent fatality rate for career drivers until the introduction of the enclosed cockpit.
As opined yesterday, it appears that Sean had peaked and is now weakening, and will fail to reach hurricane status.

I wunder what the 2012 hurricane season will hold....I mean with it being 2012 in all.Lol.JK.Myth or not it looks like La nina is returning which means more dry weather for Texas and the south-east.And perhaps more wet weather for my area(Frown face).
Quoting Levi32:
As opined yesterday, it appears that Sean had peaked and is now weakening, and will fail to reach hurricane status.


It was probably already at hurricane status yesterday.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was probably already at hurricane status yesterday.


Based on what?
Quoting Levi32:


Based on what?

Satellite imagery?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Satellite imagery?


A lot of warm-core entities developing under a cold environment aloft have an eye with winds even well below hurricane strength.
Quoting Patrap:
TS SEAN


Floater - Water Vapor Loop

..click Image for Loop.

Zoom is available,



Sean is targeting tiny Bermuda, small target to hit on the spot,, but who knows? They might get a direct hit..
I'm going to say that Sean is not our last storm of the season, and we will see either another Subtropical system or we will see one come out of the SW Caribbean. This is illustrated by the CMC and NGP, which both develop a TD/TS in 144 hours (5 1/2 days).
Quoting Articuno:

I thought sean was already way to the left of bermuda
Heading NE right towards Bermuda
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm going to say that Sean is not our last storm of the season, and we will see either another Subtropical system or we will see one come out of the SW Caribbean. This is illustrated by the CMC and NGP, which both develop a TD/TS in 144 hours (5 1/2 days).
I agree especially since last month only cranked out one storm, November might make up the difference.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was probably already at hurricane status yesterday.
mm don't think so. The lack of warm SSTs prevented any significant deep convection from occurring which kept it from reaching hurricane status. That eye feature really doesn't mean much in this case, especially since the dry pocket over the center was already present when it was a subtropical storm. As it intensified it just built in convection around the pocket.
Quoting Levi32:


Based on what?


Pressure.

Recon went into day while pressures where 983 mb, and it was obvious on satellite to me that Sean was weakening by that point, thanks to shear. Pretty extreme to have a > than 980 mb tropical storm, and usually only in the Caribbean. Though, it is entirely possible that Sean could be like Ike and Alex, instead of intensifying in terms of wind its wind field was so massive that the lower pressures where to be expected.

PS, did you survive the Alaska snowcane?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Pressure.

Recon went into day while pressures where 983 mb, and it was obvious on satellite to me that Sean was weakening by that point, thanks to shear. Pretty extreme to have a > than 980 mb tropical storm, and usually only in the Caribbean. Though, it is entirely possible that Sean could be like Ike and Alex, instead of intensifying in terms of wind its wind field was so massive that the lower pressures where to be expected.

PS, did you survive the Alaska snowcane?

983 mbar. is a high-end Category 1 hurricane pressure, and considering it was weakening, Sean was likely sub-980 mbar. yesterday like you just said.

That's Category 2 pressure...In a TS? I don't think so, even if it does take a long time for winds to correspond to pressure.
Quoting j2008:
Heading NE right towards Bermuda
I expect the LLC will still pass to the north of Bermuda. However, the MLC will likely pass closer, or perhaps even directly over, Bermuda due to the ~25 knots of Westerly shear coming from that trough pushing off the coast. This shear has already pushed the majority of the convection off to the eastern side and given the storm quite a bit of vertical tilt.
Quoting j2008:
Heading NE right towards Bermuda

Oh..
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Pressure.

Recon went into day while pressures where 983 mb, and it was obvious on satellite to me that Sean was weakening by that point, thanks to shear. Pretty extreme to have a > than 980 mb tropical storm, and usually only in the Caribbean. Though, it is entirely possible that Sean could be like Ike and Alex, instead of intensifying in terms of wind its wind field was so massive that the lower pressures where to be expected.

PS, did you survive the Alaska snowcane?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

983 mbar. is a high-end Category 1 hurricane pressure, and considering it was weakening, Sean was likely sub-980 mbar. yesterday like you just said.

That's Category 2 pressure...In a TS? I don't think so, even if it does take a long time for winds to correspond to pressure.
The steepness of the pressure gradient determines wind strength, not minimum pressures.

It's certainly possible that this had hurricane force winds, but at this point it's only speculation. And honestly, it's not something I'd care to see upgraded, if anything it was a hurricane for one advisory and at absolute minimum intensity (75 MPH)...this really isn't very significant.
Quoting TomTaylor:

The steepness of the pressure gradient determines winds, not minimum pressures.

It's certainly possible that this had hurricane force winds, but at this point it's only speculation. And honestly, it's not something I'd care to see upgraded, if anything it was a hurricane for one advisory and at absolute minimum intensity (75 MPH).

It could've been a Category 5 hurricane for all we know.

No, lol, that's a bit extreme. But, there is little doubt in my mind that it was a Category 1 hurricane yesterday afternoon through the night. But you're right, it doesn't really matter much anyways.
76. For statistical junkies like myself, it matters.

But for the most part, your statement is very accurate.
Wow! A near-hurricane in the open Atlantic in November - incredible.



Meanwhile in the Pacific, a similar though mostly non-tropical vortex is setting up to impact Los Angeles via what looks like an atmospheric river.

In other news, the Keystone XL Pipeline to deliver oil from the Alberta tar sands to Nebraska and Texas has been delayed. This is an objectively important and necessary precedent for existence.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
76. For statistical junkies like myself, it matters.

But for the most part, your statement is very accurate.
yep I understand that, I've had my moments when I disagree with the NHC's classification and get upset mostly for the statistical aspect.
A few dozen lighthouses in severe weather.

Link
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Wow! A near-hurricane in the open Atlantic in November - incredible.



Meanwhile in the Pacific, a similar though mostly non-tropical vortex is setting up to impact Los Angeles via what looks like an atmospheric river.

In other news, the Keystone XL Pipeline to deliver oil from the Alberta tar sands to Nebraska and Texas has been delayed. This is an objectively important and necessary precedent for existence.
Yeah that pacific storm looks pretty impressive on satellite, I was thinking we'd get a good rain when I saw those clouds pushing up toward the trough. Unfortunately, those tropical clouds are mostly mid to upper level clouds and won't provide too much more in the way of moisture. TPW imagery shows the lack of significant moisture associated with the clouds. Most of southern California shouldn't see much more than an inch or two.

Latest HPC 5 Day QPF

Monday's tornado in Tipton, Oklahoma, has been upgraded to an EF4, making it the strongest ever November twister in the state tornado database:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-nov embertornadoes

Just more coincidence...
Last night's wind in Southern Ontario was extremely strong, perhaps 70-80 km/h. The clouds were moving quickly and so I attempted to calculate the speed.

At an angle of 30-deg, the clouds were moving approximately one fist-diameter from SW, or 10-deg, per <15 seconds, and appeared stratocumulus fractus. At the Moon height, or approximately 54-deg, it was about two degrees per second. I then fell asleep.

Based on the base-and-height equidistant triangle theorem, the ratio of the distance to the centre of a perfectly spherical object versus the diameter 1:1 at ~53 deg, or sqrt{0.96296169} radian. I completely forget what to do next.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Monday's tornado in Tipton, Oklahoma, has been upgraded to an EF4, making it the strongest ever November twister in the state tornado database:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-nov embertornadoes

Just more coincidence...

Yeah, unprecedented for November.

There is a chance for another Tornado Outbreak as we head into next week, as depicted by the GFS and ECMWF. We'll have to watch it closely, as it would hit the same relative area.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah that pacific storm looks pretty impressive on satellite, I was thinking we'd get a good rain when I saw those clouds pushing up toward the trough. Unfortunately, those tropical clouds are mostly mid to upper level clouds and won't provide too much more in the way of moisture. TPW imagery shows the lack of significant moisture associated with the clouds. Most of southern California shouldn't see much more than an inch or two.

Latest HPC 5 Day QPF



A moisture plume is headed DIRECTLY for Southern Ontario! We will likely get some lake-effect snowsqualls tomorrow moning - nothing of Hallowe'en storm proportions, but still a few cm possible in areas.
Lengthy article with storm news from today's Seattle PI

At Point Hope Wednesday, when the villagers heard the warning that the storm could worsen, they danced - the same dances they perform during whaling season seeking good weather for the whale boats. Wednesdays dances worked. The weather service canceled the warning late that evening.

Point Hope Mayor Steve Oomittuk said homes in the Inupiat Eskimo community have been without electricity and heat since early Wednesday, after winds gusting at 80 mph slammed an old wooden shack into a power pole with five main lines, cutting it in half. The building then broke apart, sending wood flying.

"There's a lot of debris in that area," Oomittuk said Thursday morning, soon after repair workers landed at the airstrip.

With the lights out, vehicles lined up along the runway to guide the plane with their headlights
.

Oomittuk said the winds were too strong during the storm to get a full picture of the damage around the community.

More than 500 of Point Hope's nearly 700 residents have been staying at the village school, which has its own generator. Principal Greg Wilbanks said the school would remain a community shelter Thursday night if power was not restored as quickly as hoped. That would mean classes would continue to be canceled for the rest of the week.


Read more: http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Huge-Alaska- storm-passes-leaves-widespread-damage-2262259.php# ixzz1dM26MiHL

First report I've seen from Kivalina, a village Dr. Jeff Masters mentioned in his blog yesterday.

Kivalina, 75 miles down the coast, got a "good surge from the ocean," said village spokeswoman Colleen Swan. But mornings are very dark and the extent of flooding was not immediately known beyond water washing over the village dump site and onto the beach, she said.

She later toured the area and said there was no damage to the dump even though water reached a part of it. She said the beach was stressed and the ice lagoon cracked by the huge waves clocked in at 25 mph. At first glance, the village escaped with minimal impact.

"People were looking around and I think a lot of them are totally relieved," she said. "We're very thankful it did not get bad enough to flood the village. Not knowing was the worst."

Most of the community's 460 residents, including those nearest the ocean and lagoon, were evacuated to the school.

Read more: http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Huge-Alaska- storm-passes-leaves-widespread-damage-2262259.php# ixzz1dM2dsI4U

Shaktoolik
"I think this storm tested the will of the people in Shaktoolik," he(Mayor Michael Sookiayak) said. "There was a lot of anxiety in the community."

Still of concern is a little spit of land about three miles from the community surrounded by a river on one side and the ocean on the other, separated by just a few feet.

Sookiayak said officials haven't yet had a chance to survey the area.

"And if that ocean erodes into the river, then we basically become an island," he said.

Read more: http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Huge-Alaska- storm-passes-leaves-widespread-damage-2262259.php# ixzz1dM31OXTE
It's getting too quiet in here. Let's take a look at one of the CMC ensemble members for some entertainment.

Hour 216:



Hour 240:



lol, now Sean decides to fire deeper convection, but its chances of becoming a hurricane have faded away to near zero.

Quoting dabirds:
Saw story & pic in the Post-Dispatch this a.m., trying to find out if this was the ocean cat that was at our resort at the Lake of the Ozarks on a poker run this summer. Very similiar if not. Dangerous sport, but they know it going in. Hope the rest of the races go well.
yes that was the same boat they used to come here and race all the time this was their first race in a few years. i was on the boat that pulled one of them out of the water, we did everything we could R.I.P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
lol, now Sean decides to fire deeper convection, but its chances of becoming a hurricane have faded away to near zero.

yeah, my best guess would be that westerly shear is also providing good divergence aloft allowing for convection to pick up a bit.

Out for now, later all

edit: perhaps better lower convergence on the NE quad is helping as well since the storm is moving in that direction allowing for greater convergence at the surface.


I wasn't really expecting to see this.
Quoting yqt1001:


I wasn't really expecting to see this.
? that is very strange.
Quoting yqt1001:


I wasn't really expecting to see this.

Uh-Uh, not expected at all.
Quoting yqt1001:


I wasn't really expecting to see this.

C'mon Sean, you can do it!
Probably doesn't mean much now as time is quickly running out, but his structure looks to be improving.

4 hours ago:


Now:
Quoting yqt1001:


I wasn't really expecting to see this.


Me either.....
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

C'mon Sean, you can do it!

No it can't, it can't do it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No it can't, it can't do it.

Why not?
No change in intensity for the 11PM adv.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 110236
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192011
1100 PM AST THU NOV 10 2011

SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE PROVIDED MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE INTENSITY
OF SEAN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ON ONE HAND...VERTICAL SHEAR OF
ABOUT 20 KT AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS HAS DISPLACED THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AS SEEN IN RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM THE FNMOC TC WEBPAGE. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE COOLED AND EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH 00Z DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE NHC
FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. BY 24 HOURS...SEAN SHOULD BE
ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.

RECENT DVORAK AND MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 060/11. THIS RIGHTWARD JOG SHOULD BE TEMPORARY
HOWEVER...AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
GIVEN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...OR SOUTHEAST...OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE
TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 31.5N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 33.6N 65.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Quoting Neapolitan:
Monday's tornado in Tipton, Oklahoma, has been upgraded to an EF4, making it the strongest ever November twister in the state tornado database:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-ok-nov embertornadoes

Just more coincidence...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, unprecedented for November.

There is a chance for another Tornado Outbreak as we head into next week, as depicted by the GFS and ECMWF. We'll have to watch it closely, as it would hit the same relative area.


Neither coincidence, unprecedented or a surprise for Western Oklahoma.

Since 1950, three other F4s and numerous F3s have occurred in western Oklahoma during Fall, second season severe.

Coincidence. I don't believe in them. The system that spawned this tornado was the sky's way of seeking balance by bringing Oklahoma widespread rain after a droughtful summer.

The atmosphere was ripe. SPC discussions and tornado watches repeatedly mentioned the risk for EF2plus tornadoes with this system.

Another system next week? Oklahoma needs it. Bring on the rain, even if it blows my roof off.
:)
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Neither coincidence, unprecedented or a surprise for Western Oklahoma.

Since 1950, three other F4s and numerous F3s have occurred in western Oklahoma during Fall, second season severe.

Coincidence. I don't believe in them. The system that spawned this tornado was the sky's way of seeking balance by bringing Oklahoma widespread rain after a droughtful summer.

The atmosphere was ripe. SPC discussions and tornado watches repeatedly mentioned the risk for EF2plus tornadoes with this system.

Another system next week? Oklahoma needs it. Bring on the rain, even if it blows my roof off.
:)

Unprecedented for November, which that link confirms. There has never been an EF-4 tornado in November in Oklahoma. The 2011 Tipton, OK tornado is a first.
Well, it's pretty unrelated (please don't ban me!), but it's worth posting I think. (though I doubt there are very many PC gamers in this crowd)

Valve has just confirmed that Steam was hacked on the weekend.

You are going to have to click "Proceed to the Forums" to see the details.

Today must not be my lucky day since I just bought 5 games (valued at $190) on there....
Windy here but it looks like sean is passing harmlessly to the west of us.
Looks like very normal to above normal temps for the next 10 days it appears for most of the ConUs!
Quoting BDADUDE:
Windy here but it looks like sean is passing harmlessly to the west of us.


Most likely harmless, but still a bee-line to BDA since this morning. No change there.
Think HWRF finally won one. Hasn't had a good track record, imo.

Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Neither coincidence, unprecedented or a surprise for Western Oklahoma.

Since 1950, three other F4s and numerous F3s have occurred in western Oklahoma during Fall, second season severe.

Coincidence. I don't believe in them. The system that spawned this tornado was the sky's way of seeking balance by bringing Oklahoma widespread rain after a droughtful summer.

The atmosphere was ripe. SPC discussions and tornado watches repeatedly mentioned the risk for EF2plus tornadoes with this system.

Another system next week? Oklahoma needs it. Bring on the rain, even if it blows my roof off.
:)

Well, I specifically referred to this week's EF4 being the first one in Oklahoma during November, not the first in autumn. And if you'd like to claim that the tornado was so powerful as a response to the summer's extreme drought and heat, I'll grant you that. But then that begs the obvious follow-up question: why was the summer's drought and heat so intense?

The thing is, for decades now, climate scientists have been predicting that as the planet warms, extreme weather events would increase in both frequency and intensity. By most objective accounts, that appears to be happening now. No, neither this week's rare powerful tornado, nor the Alaska superstorm--nor last week's monster Northeast snowstorm--can be blamed on climate change. And no honest scientist would claim such a thing. But it would be foolish and premature to aver that there's no connection whatsoever--or that it's all just coincidence.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
It's getting too quiet in here. Let's take a look at one of the CMC ensemble members for some entertainment.

Hour 216:



Hour 240:





I never trust that model, always overdoes things
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Unprecedented for November, which that link confirms. There has never been an EF-4 tornado in November in Oklahoma. The 2011 Tipton, OK tornado is a first.


Uh, yeah.

You're a smart kid, so I'll let you in on a secret. One detail alone rarely tells the tale. Sometimes, in weather and in life, it is wise to look at the bigger picture.
:)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I never trust that model, always overdoes things


Like I said, entertainment purposes. I do not believe at all that the solution depicted will be the case.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, I specifically referred to this week's EF4 being the first one in Oklahoma during November, not the first in autumn. And if you'd like to claim that the tornado was so powerful as a response to the summer's extreme drought and heat, I'll grant you that. But then that begs the obvious follow-up question: why was the summer's drought and heat so intense?

The thing is, for decades now, climate scientists have been predicting that as the planet warms, extreme weather events would increase in both frequency and intensity. By most objective accounts, that appears to be happening now. No, neither this week's rare powerful tornado, nor the Alaska superstorm--nor last week's monster Northeast snowstorm--can be blamed on climate change. And no honest scientist would claim such a thing. But it would be foolish and premature to aver that there's no connection whatsoever--or that it's all just coincidence.

I have no doubt the globe is warming. A mere 15,000 years ago, Puget Sound was covered with glaciers. I have seen with my own eyes shrinking glaciers in Alaska.

Re: The part of your comment I bolded.

I will not jump on the doomsday-squawking bandwagon. Jumping to conclusions never has been my thing. Talk to me about it in five years, and we'll see what's happening.

My truth, at this moment...
The events you mention have been hyped by forecasters and others who wish to make people believe doomsday is here. As I said, I ain't buyin' it.
(edited for clarity)
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

I have no doubt the globe is warming. A mere 15,000 years ago, Puget Sound was covered with glaciers. I have seen with my own eyes shrinking glaciers in Alaska.

Re: The part of your comment I bolded.

I will not jump on the doomsday-squawking bandwagon. Jumping to conclusions never has been my thing. Talk to me about it in five years, and we'll see what's happening.

My truth, at this moment...
The events you mention have been hyped by forecasters and others who wish to make people believe doomsday is here. As I said, I ain't buyin' it.
(edited for clarity)

doomsday-squawking bandwagon?

by saying that, you discredit your opinion. you've shown a lack of objectivity and scientific approach.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

I have no doubt the globe is warming. A mere 15,000 years ago, Puget Sound was covered with glaciers. I have seen with my own eyes shrinking glaciers in Alaska.

Re: The part of your comment I bolded.

I will not jump on the doomsday-squawking bandwagon. Jumping to conclusions never has been my thing. Talk to me about it in five years, and we'll see what's happening.

My truth, at this moment...
The events you mention have been hyped by forecasters and others who wish to make people believe doomsday is here. As I said, I ain't buyin' it.
(edited for clarity)


Strange. It is not actually for sell but, we will all end up paying for it.
Quoting Neapolitan:

But then that begs the obvious follow-up question: why was the summer's drought and heat so intense

La Nina?

Of course, the question you're asking assumes the drought and heat were exceptionally abnormal. So I ask, why was the drought and heat of 1980 so intense? Why was the drought of the 1950s so intense? Why was the 1930-36 drought so intense that it bears its own name, The Dust Bowl, and left in its wake numerous abandoned towns and an outmigration of 2.5 million people?
Quoting FatPenguin:

doomsday-squawking bandwagon?

by saying that, you discredit your opinion. you've shown a lack of objectivity and scientific approach.


LOL
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Strange. It is not actually for sell but, we will all end up paying for it.


Not sure if you're joking or what.

I guess, then, if one does not believe(buy) the hype about this odd string of weather, they do not have to pay.
:)
...
Add: on the subject of the recent western Alaska Storm...
This photo blew me away!
from Matthew Smith, KNOM radio in Nome
The shapes of nature. Be sure you see the whole photo, not just the top.
:)

Goodnight folks - far, near and invisible.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Wow! A near-hurricane in the open Atlantic in November - incredible.



Meanwhile in the Pacific, a similar though mostly non-tropical vortex is setting up to impact Los Angeles via what looks like an atmospheric river.


The atmospheric river is called the Pineapple Express here in Cali, and this scenario makes everyone in the Sacramento River Delta extremely nervous.

Strange thing, by the looks of the satellite pic, it should've been raining here in San Diego since about 2pm today, but because of the mild Santa Ana conditions generated by the high pressure in the Great Basin, the clouds just lost moisture as they moved onshore hitting the dry air. With the dewpoint and humidity both at 31%, any precipitation evaporates well before it can reach the ground.

It was a weird, warm and thinly veiled cloudy day today. Some call it "earthquake weather". Now there is a big clear spot forming and growing over San Diego as this "river" gets sucked dry-- so far--but the moisture will eventually win out and the forecast is for rain all weekend.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

I have no doubt the globe is warming. A mere 15,000 years ago, Puget Sound was covered with glaciers. I have seen with my own eyes shrinking glaciers in Alaska.

Re: The part of your comment I bolded.

I will not jump on the doomsday-squawking bandwagon. Jumping to conclusions never has been my thing. Talk to me about it in five years, and we'll see what's happening.

My truth, at this moment...
The events you mention have been hyped by forecasters and others who wish to make people believe doomsday is here. As I said, I ain't buyin' it.
(edited for clarity)

No "doomsday-squawking". No "bandwagon". No "jumping to conclusions". And no one is asking you to "buy" anything. I'm talking about nothing more than simple, unadulterated facts, such as those presented in this graph:

Oops

On a side note, it's funny you mention stalling action for another five years:

World headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns

The world is likely to build so many fossil-fuelled power stations, energy-guzzling factories and inefficient buildings in the next five years that it will become impossible to hold global warming to safe levels, and the last chance of combating dangerous climate change will be "lost for ever", according to the most thorough analysis yet of world energy infrastructure.
I ain't real smart, I'm just a lurker in here, but one thing I have studied is the polarity changes, which affects weather patterns,
Fact the North pole has a 20% less polarity now than it did in 1900, and the South pole as increased the same.
I never hear anything in these blogs about how this phenomena is effecting our weather, it strictly about carbons, and being man made.

As an Emergency Manager I have to look out of the box and look at everything to be successful in my job, so when it comes to weather issues, there are a lot of contributing factors, NOT just man made issues.
The sun with it's storms,
Volcano's
Polarity changes,
Amazon jungle disappearing.
Carbon release.
Cyclical weather changes.
How about the effects on polarity from astroids?
So in closing, I ain't no weather guy never have been never will be, but I have an open mind to what the causes of our changing weather.
Just is just my two cents worth in this carbon argument.

As Paul Harvey said, Good Day!
(On second thoughts, I'll leave the GW debate for another day).

--



Always remember.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Unprecedented for November, which that link confirms. There has never been an EF-4 tornado in November in Oklahoma. The 2011 Tipton, OK tornado is a first.

Throughout recorded history, is an interesting term!
There will always be new and higher/lower records being documented, as the monitoring systems approach perfect then nothing much will slip through the net so to speak in the future.
As people in say 20 years, which is as far as I am prepared to think on this will be concerned, there will be a list of facts that will never have been equaled before in recorded history, things may become "stronger," or more extreme but at some point, maybe with a notable rise in sea levels or an exodus of "climatic refugees," the scale of what is probably happening now will become undeniable.
A lot of people underestimate the importance of what the records that are being taken now will be to a future generation.Plus how we wish more records had been taken in the past, to confirm change, rather than speculate about it.
Today is the 1st time this year for a little frost on on my cars and neighbors roof down on Bayou Grande.
32.8*F in Macon, Georgia this morning. 83% Humidity. Today's WU Forecast: Sunny, highs around 60*F, NW winds 5 to 15 mph.

VETERANS' DAY (US), REMEMBRANCE DAY (AU, CAN) - 11/11/2011

Not only do I remember the men and women who are serving now but the millions of them who have served throughout history for this county and our Allies.

I also personally remember my Father and my Uncle who served during the Korean War and my Grandfather who served during WW2. He came to this country from Yugoslavia in 1903, moved to Chigago, married my Grandmother who had come to this country from Austria, became a US Citizen, and joined the US Army during WW2 and served as an interpreter even though he suffered greatly from the racial slurs and mistrust from "real American soldiers" because of his "German" heritage. Undaunted, he carried out his military duties with dignity and professionalism and returned home to Chicago and began to raise a family.

May they find peace and comfort in the knowledge that they offered their lives and served their country to the best of their abilities for an ideal that was greater than themselves.

The following poem was written by Cadet Major Kelly Strong, Air Force Junior ROTC, Homestead Senior High School, Homestead, Florida, 1988:

FREEDOM IS NOT FREE

I watched the flag pass by one day, it fluttered in the breeze,
A young Marine saluted it, and then he stood at ease.
I looked at him in uniform, so young, so tall, so proud,
With hair cut square and eyes alert, he'd stand out in any crowd.

I thought how many men like him, had fallen through the years,
How many died on foreign soil, how many mother's tears?
How many pilots' planes shot down, how many died at sea?
How many foxholes were soldiers' graves? No, freedom is not free.

I heard the sound of "Taps" one night, when everything was still,
I listened to the bugler play, and felt a sudden chill.
I wondered just how many times, that "Taps" had meant "Amen",
When a flag had draped a coffin, of a brother or a friend.

I thought of all the children, of the mothers and the wives,
Of fathers, sons, and husbands, with interrupted lives.
I thought about a graveyard, at the bottom of the sea,
Of unmarked graves in Arlington, No, freedom is not free.


135. myway
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Unprecedented for November, which that link confirms. There has never been an EF-4 tornado in November in Oklahoma. The 2011 Tipton, OK tornado is a first.



First for Oklahoma...yes.


Today is the 100 year anniversary of a F4 tornado in Janesville Wisconsin.
Quoting DallasGumby:
Why was the 1930-36 drought so intense that it bears its own name, The Dust Bowl, and left in its wake numerous abandoned towns and an outmigration of 2.5 million people?

Farming practices had a lot to do with that. It was not just the drought. Wikipedia:

"The phenomenon was caused by severe drought coupled with decades of extensive farming without crop rotation, fallow fields, cover crops or other techniques to prevent wind erosion."

The mighty Wiki references this.
Interesting paragraph from the dust bowl reference.

"The agricultural and economic damage devastated residents of the Great Plains. The Dust Bowl drought worsened the already severe economic crises that many Great Plains farmers faced. In the early 1930s, many farmers were trying to recover from economic losses suffered during the Great Depression. To compensate for these losses, they began to increase their crop yields. High production drove prices down, forcing farmers to keep increasing their production to pay for both their equipment and their land. When the drought hit, farmers could no longer produce enough crops to pay off loans or even pay for essential needs. Even with Federal emergency aid, many Great Plains farmers could not withstand the economic crisis of the drought. Many farmers were forced off of their land, with one in ten farms changing possession at the peak of the farm transfers."

Similar to a tragedy of the commons.

"The tragedy of the commons is a dilemma arising from the situation in which multiple individuals, acting independently and rationally consulting their own self-interest, will ultimately deplete a shared limited resource, even when it is clear that it is not in anyone's long-term interest for this to happen."
And another interesting passage from the NCDC article:

"The paleoclimatic record of past droughts is a better guide than what is provided by the instrumental record alone of what we should expect in terms of the magnitude and duration of future droughts. For example, paleoclimatic data suggest that droughts as severe at the 1950s drought have occurred in central North America several times a century over the past 300-400 years, and thus we should expect (and plan for) similar droughts in the future. The paleoclimatic record also indicates that droughts of a much greater duration than any in 20th century have occurred in parts of North American as recently as 500 years ago. These data indicate that we should be aware of the possibility of such droughts occurring in the future as well. The occurrence of such sustained drought conditions today would be a natural disaster of a magnitude unprecedented in the 20th century."

Looking at the cracked roads and dead trees around Houston, I wonder. You can drive past just about any forested patch of land around west Houston and see fairly tall trees dead trees, 50 feet or more. I don't want to think about the house slabs. Cattle have been sold off, a loss to agriculture--enjoy the lower beef prices while they last.
A safe and blessed Veterans Day to the folks on the blog.
Quoting myway:



First for Oklahoma...yes.


Today is the 100 year anniversary of a F4 tornado in Janesville Wisconsin.

That Janesville storm was part of a much larger weather event, the "Great Blue Norther" of 11/11/11, during which temperatures plummeted--as fair a use of that word as there's ever been. For instance, Springfield, Missouri, reached a high of 80F just prior to the passage of the cold front. Two hours later, the temperature was 40F, and by midnight it had dropped to 13F. And contemporary accounts claim that an hour after the tornado went through Janesville, first responders were working in blizzard conditions and near-zero visibility.

FWIW, the Tornado Project's database shows 19 total November F4s (and no F5s) before this week's Oklahoma storm. It was by a long shot the farthest west; only five of the others were west of the Mississippi, with the 1992 F4 near Houston the westernmost. (The project only lists twisters from 1950 onward, as classifying older ones based on anedcotal evidence and contemporary eyewitness accounts is fraught with error.)
Quoting hydrus:
A safe and blessed Veterans Day to the folks on the blog.


And a heartfelt thank you to all whom unselfishly served and protected, and continue to protect, our nation.
tgif l_l
Semper fi from another former Marine, Patrap--great article.
Quoting RTLSNK:
32.8*F in Macon, Georgia this morning. 83% Humidity. Today's WU Forecast: Sunny, highs around 60*F, NW winds 5 to 15 mph.

VETERANS' DAY (US), REMEMBRANCE DAY (AU, CAN) - 11/11/2011

Not only do I remember the men and women who are serving now but the millions of them who have served throughout history for this county and our Allies.

I also personally remember my Father and my Uncle who served during the Korean War and my Grandfather who served during WW2. He came to this country from Yugoslavia in 1903, moved to Chigago, married my Grandmother who had come to this country from Austria, became a US Citizen, and joined the US Army during WW2 and served as an interpreter even though he suffered greatly from the racial slurs and mistrust from "real American soldiers" because of his "German" heritage. Undaunted, he carried out his military duties with dignity and professionalism and returned home to Chicago and began to raise a family.

May they find peace and comfort in the knowledge that they offered their lives and served their country to the best of their abilities for an ideal that was greater than themselves.

The following poem was written by Cadet Major Kelly Strong, Air Force Junior ROTC, Homestead Senior High School, Homestead, Florida, 1988:

FREEDOM IS NOT FREE

I watched the flag pass by one day, it fluttered in the breeze,
A young Marine saluted it, and then he stood at ease.
I looked at him in uniform, so young, so tall, so proud,
With hair cut square and eyes alert, he'd stand out in any crowd.

I thought how many men like him, had fallen through the years,
How many died on foreign soil, how many mother's tears?
How many pilots' planes shot down, how many died at sea?
How many foxholes were soldiers' graves? No, freedom is not free.

I heard the sound of "Taps" one night, when everything was still,
I listened to the bugler play, and felt a sudden chill.
I wondered just how many times, that "Taps" had meant "Amen",
When a flag had draped a coffin, of a brother or a friend.

I thought of all the children, of the mothers and the wives,
Of fathers, sons, and husbands, with interrupted lives.
I thought about a graveyard, at the bottom of the sea,
Of unmarked graves in Arlington, No, freedom is not free.




Nice post. At least one person on here has there priorities in line this morning.
Thanks to all you men and woman who so proudly served our country in the past and still today. It is a nice thing to see those posts on the blog today.
Big heartfelt thanks to the Veterans and active service men an women keeping us safe, and all the gold star families that sacrifice for us.

How did the folks at Kivalina do, in Alaska?
The seawall shown on yesterday's blog, did not look large enough to handle a 5 ft. storm surge, let alone an 8'.
Quoting biff4ugo:
How did the folks at Kivalina do, in Alaska?
The seawall shown on yesterday's blog, did not look large enough to handle a 5 ft. storm surge, let alone an 8'.
See post 88.
149. flsky
Quoting ncgnto25:
Semper fi from another former Marine, Patrap--great article.


Semper fi from a daughter of a marine - my mom during WWII!
So..any thoughts and predictions for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Quoting Neo from your comment #115.
The thing is, for decades now, climate scientists have been predicting that as the planet warms, extreme weather events would increase in both frequency and intensity. By most objective accounts, that appears to be happening now. No, neither this week's rare powerful tornado, nor the Alaska superstorm--nor last week's monster Northeast snowstorm--can be blamed on climate change. And no honest scientist would claim such a thing. But it would be foolish and premature to aver that there's no connection whatsoever--or that it's all just coincidence.

Quoting Barefootontherocks:

I have no doubt the globe is warming. A mere 15,000 years ago, Puget Sound was covered with glaciers. I have seen with my own eyes shrinking glaciers in Alaska.

Re: The part of your comment I bolded.

I will not jump on the doomsday-squawking bandwagon. Jumping to conclusions never has been my thing. Talk to me about it in five years, and we'll see what's happening.

My truth, at this moment...
The events you mention have been hyped by forecasters and others who wish to make people believe doomsday is here. As I said, I ain't buyin' it.
(edited for clarity)
Quoting Neapolitan:

No "doomsday-squawking". No "bandwagon". No "jumping to conclusions". And no one is asking you to "buy" anything. I'm talking about nothing more than simple, unadulterated facts, such as those presented in this graph:

Oops

On a side note, it's funny you mention stalling action for another five years:

World headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns

The world is likely to build so many fossil-fuelled power stations, energy-guzzling factories and inefficient buildings in the next five years that it will become impossible to hold global warming to safe levels, and the last chance of combating dangerous climate change will be "lost for ever", according to the most thorough analysis yet of world energy infrastructure.


LMAO. I said nothing about "delaying action." Nor did I aver no connection.

As you can see, I spoke specifically to the part of your comment I bolded. Let me put this way. There is no way I believe, at this moment, that the type of recent weather events you mention at 115 will continue at their recent pace through the next five years. In other words, I do not believe the tipping point you say science has been pointing at for 30 years "is likely happening now."

That's all I said, perhaps not clearly enough to reach the thinking, logical part of your brain.

Quit twisting my words. And quit trying to brainwash me. Something tells me these are not likely possibilities, so perhaps I'll just not post to you in future.