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Air pollution season begins; new hurricane buoys go on-line

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:35 PM GMT on April 30, 2007

Air pollution season begins May 1 and lasts through the end of September. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has designated this week as Air Pollution Awareness Week, so I'll be pointing people to the EPA web site designed for the occasion. We worry most about air pollution in the summer for two reasons:

1) The pollutant of most concern in the U.S. Is ground-level ozone. Ozone is a colorless odorless gas. It's the same kind of gas that's found in the ozone layer. But in the ozone layer, high in the Earth's stratosphere, ozone protects us from the sun. At ground level, where we live, ozone pollution is unhealthy to breathe. Ground-level ozone forms when nitrogen oxides and gaseous carbon compounds from cars, trucks, power plants, industries, and some consumer products cook in the sun. Intense sunlight and hot temperatures make the most ozone. Thus, hot summer days in late afternoon have the highest ozone pollution--unless strong winds disperse the foul air.

2) Summertime has the the greatest incidence of multi-day periods with clear weather and light winds. These "air stagnation episodes" allow pollutants to build up, since there is little wind to disperse the stuff. Air stagnation episodes are much less common during other times of year, when low pressure systems and their attached cold fronts and warm fronts bring strong winds that keep pollution levels lower.

I'll have a new blog Tuesday or Wednesday, and take a look at last year's pollution season. Is air quality improving in the U.S.?


Figure 1. Map of hurricane buoys maintained by the National Data Buoy Center. Image credit: NOAA.

New hurricane buoys on-line
Two new ocean buoys are now on-line to help monitor hurricanes, thanks to over $2 million in special hurricane funding approved by Congress in the wake of the Hurricane Katrina disaster in 2005. Buoy 42059, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, and buoy 41043, a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico, are strategically placed to offer data in area where hurricanes frequently traverse. Six more buoys are scheduled to come on-line in the next year, and these will be a big help in tracking hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Very interesting about the new bouys - I wondered.
Dr. M, Thanks. Good information to have about the bouys.
31 days till hurricane season
Interesting information Dr. Masters. Thanks.

I posted this on the other thread just before this one came up:

Posted By: Levi32 at 6:45 AM AKDT on April 30, 2007.

Morning guys :)

That blob is convection generated by a surface trough in the area. There is NO surface circulation if you look on the visible loop.

Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 2:58 AM AKDT on April 30, 2007.
these troughs are barely phasing the High, definitely not going to have a repeat of last year.


SOTC if you don't mind I need to clear something up. That surface map you have there shows nothing that we want to know. If you're looking for troughs and ridges that will steer hurricanes this year, look at the upper air maps, not the surface. That high that you guys are saying extends all the way across the Atlantic doesn't matter at all because it's the high in the upper atmosphere that matters.

Here's a link to a northern hemisphere 500mb map if you want to see it. Link

Anyway, if you want to find troughs and ridges that will affect hurricanes look either on a map like the one I gave you or the initial images of model runs. The surface map tells us nothing.
the more buoys, the better!

wish they put camera's on those things! :D

have a good week everybody! :)
the blob was an honorable mention.... not much else to play up! :D

have a feeling that will soon change! :) things are getting rather warm in the SW Caribbean!
Yep SSTs are on the rise, but we'll have to get some sort of disturbance in there first. The GFS keeps hinting at something in 10-15 days, maybe the ITCZ will be nudging north around that time.
I wish it wasn't so soon 147257. Thanks Dr. M for the information. Looks like the East Pacific is having an interesting Tropical Wave.
God help me..... but I saw this article, and since so many in here seem to "trust" William Gray.....

http://www.news24.com/News24/Technology/News/0,,2-13-1443_2105958,00.html

"American hurricane forecaster William Gray said on Friday that global ocean currents, not human-produced carbon dioxide, were responsible for global warming and that the Earth might begin to cool on its own in five to 10 years.

Gray, a Colorado State University researcher, also said increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would not produce more or stronger hurricanes.

He said that over the past 40 years, the number of major hurricanes making landfall on the Atlantic coast had declined, even though carbon dioxide levels had risen.

Gray, speaking to a group of Republican state politicians, had harsh words for researchers and politicians who said man-made greenhouse gases were responsible for global warming.

"They're blaming it all on humans, which is crazy," he said. "We're not the cause of it." "

There you go people..... Is William Gray credible???

I would love to here Dr. Master's take on this article. Funny, you hear no mention of this story on the mainstream press.... or at least I didn't see it. Guess it does not fit the "template".

Just for the record, I agree with Dr. Gray that blaming all the global warming on humans is crazy! Now I have a credible Scientist to back me up! :)

OK.... I stirred the pot! :D
Posted By: Levi32 at 2:51 PM GMT on April 30, 2007.
Interesting information Dr. Masters. Thanks.

I posted this on the other thread just before this one came up:

Posted By: Levi32 at 6:45 AM AKDT on April 30, 2007.

Morning guys :)

That blob is convection generated by a surface trough in the area. There is NO surface circulation if you look on the visible loop.

Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 2:58 AM AKDT on April 30, 2007.
these troughs are barely phasing the High, definitely not going to have a repeat of last year.

SOTC if you don't mind I need to clear something up. That surface map you have there shows nothing that we want to know. If you're looking for troughs and ridges that will steer hurricanes this year, look at the upper air maps, not the surface. That high that you guys are saying extends all the way across the Atlantic doesn't matter at all because it's the high in the upper atmosphere that matters.

Here's a link to a northern hemisphere 500mb map if you want to see it. Link

Anyway, if you want to find troughs and ridges that will affect hurricanes look either on a map like the one I gave you or the initial images of model runs. The surface map tells us nothing.




I was merely referring to the troughs affecting the High coming off the East Coast, Levi, not the steering layers
I fully agree. So much hype and very little facts, regarding global warming. Back in the late sixties, the world was cooling and the xperts' said we were heading for a new ice age. The reason: Co2!!!

Good for you, Dr masters.
90E?

lol
15. Inyo
I think Gray has lost it. He was talking to Republican Lawmakers.. clearly it was some partisan thing. And just because some people believed in the 60s that we 'might have an ice age' does not mean greenhouse warming is invalid. There was nowhere near scientific consensus on that, this is much different.

Look, if you people don't want to believe your own scientists, you are fools. There is a big difference between one or two people crying wolf and the media jumping on it (that ice age thing) and having WELL OVER 90% of the people who devote their lives to studying climate saying something.

But of course, everyone who posts on a weather blog thinks they are an expert

"Posted By: Inyo
But of course, everyone who posts on a weather blog thinks they are an expert"

That's absurd!

where is Stormtop anyway? LOL
I was merely referring to the troughs affecting the High coming off the East Coast, Levi, not the steering layers

Oh sorry, my bad lol. I thought you were talking about the pattern or the Bermuda High or something lol.
18. Inyo
on a less political note, NOAA is still calling for La Nina but the ENSO region is actually warming now, and the trend towards La Nina seems to have completely ceased, at least for the time being.
T-MINUS 755 HRS 00 MIN TO HURRICANE SEASON
Hey everybody, I just saw the LONG RANGE GFS 12 UTC AND IT LOOKS INTERESTING BUT LONG RANGE SO DONT GET NERVOUS!
Posted By: Inyo at 9:26 AM PDT on April 30, 2007.

on a less political note, NOAA is still calling for La Nina but the ENSO region is actually warming now, and the trend towards La Nina seems to have completely ceased, at least for the time being.



they been saying the same thing evere week evere update not march new there
I know i havent posted much but I have atlantic hurricane formation questions. Thank you in advance for answers to my questions.

1.What causes tropical waves to form off the tip of africa?

2.What gets them to start spinning?
Yay for more buoys!
Iam still not buying what the GFS is showing...But as i said early its a good wake up call that tropical season is fast around the corner.

Here is a small breakdown of the 12Z GFS .


GFS @ 348hrs


fff

GFS @ 360hrs

ggg

GFS@372hrs

ggg

GFS@384hrs

ffff
More GW.....I'm not a scientist but I still have views on GW. The earth tends to go in cooling & heating cycles just like the rest of the weather & everything else....with or without the human factor. BUT I don't see how the extra heat & unnatural things we introduce into the air, ground & water; can NOT have some effect. Either by making the cycles stronger or weaker, or by speeding up or slowing down the natural timing.
This will probably won't set well with many, but one thing that I believe is a major factor is when we shoot rockets, satellites, etc. into the atmospere. That rocket fuel has to have an effect if our auto exhausts,etc. do. If you notice, we often have serious storms after a launch.
Since I am not a scientist, I wont' debate this. I'm throwing it in & if you care to comment or debunk it, I'm all ears. The debate will stay with the rest of you. The one thing I do know is God gave us this earth to take care of & we are doing a lousy job, myself included. J.W.
Is air quality improving in the U.S.?

Yes, it has improved CONSIDERABLY since the 1970s. The number 1 problem facing the U.S in 1970 was air, land, and water pollution. A series of laws passed in the 70s (Clean Air Act, etc.) led to the slow but sure improvement in air and water quality. Leaded gas was phased out and catalytic converters were required on all cars beginning in 1975. Rivers were cleaned up and beaches also.
I fully agree. So much hype and very little facts, regarding global warming. Back in the late sixties, the world was cooling and the xperts' said we were heading for a new ice age. The reason: Co2!!!

Thank you carfrag1. I remember well the hype in the mid 70s, after a few very bad winters, that created a big frenzy in the media about the coming ice age. I am not saying (before I get knocked all over the place) that this or GW is occuring. Just that short term hype feeds on a few small events.
how can you tell from the GFS projection if its a Trop Depression/Storm/Hurricane?

Just by the mbs?

If so, what are they projecting this "fantasy" storm to be - thanks,

And is that 3 or 4 consectutive runs now calling for development?
where is this storm that yall are speaking of is it even visible yet?
thelmores wrote:

Gray, speaking to a group of Republican state politicians, had harsh words for researchers and politicians who said man-made greenhouse gases were responsible for global warming.

"They're blaming it all on humans, which is crazy," he said. "We're not the cause of it." "

There you go people..... Is William Gray credible???


Dr. Gray has done some great hurricane science, but has not published anything in the peer-reviewed scientific literature supporting his global warming views. I heard him present his global warming views at a conference last year, and was very disappointed at his poor science. His main arguments were emotional, not scientific. I have been meaning to write a blog on this subject for some time, but it is a very difficult time-consuming blog to write. I greatly respect Dr. Gray's hurricane research, but some of his remarks on global warming the past few years have shown a poor scientific understanding of the problem. The personal insults he has directed at many of his colleagues on the matter have been very unprofessional, as well.

Jeff Masters

Yes Stormxyz, you are correct! You can tell from the Millibars. Looking at the maps 23 posted, it looks like a depression. GFS has been overzealous this year but, we sure could use that rain down here.
dr m do you where the high will set up shop?
hey florida could use the rain from a system like what the gfs is showing. I doubt it would be even a tropical depression but would make a good invest maybe.
35. Inyo
There is another thing people tend to forget about climate change:

On the one hand, yes, we are very likely causing changes and they may lead to big problems in the future.

HOWEVER...

another just as important point comes up when you look at temperature trends for the last 100,000 years. The vast majority of that time was charactarized by DRASTIC shifts from hot to cold... the last 8,000 years or so have been quite anomalous in their climate stability. The earth WILL go back to the more common 'unstable' climate regime at some point. Anthropomorphic global warming will probably intensify this but even if we have NO effect, it is VERY likely that extreme shifts will recur soon, probably in our lifetimes. Therefore, research on the way climate works, and planning for climate change, is very important to our survival as a culture, regardless of greenhouse warming.
look like the big H is strating to set up shop we would no more on where the high will be by last may or so

lol

look at this! it is vary high for this time of year

lol


Posted By: Stormxyz at 5:47 PM GMT on April 30, 2007.

how can you tell from the GFS projection if its a Trop Depression/Storm/Hurricane?

Just by the mbs?

If so, what are they projecting this "fantasy" storm to be - thanks,

And is that 3 or 4 consectutive runs now calling for development?


You can tell from the mb,wind barbs,and overall organization of the system.
38. Inyo
hmm.. that GFS modeled Florida system doesn't look very tropical to me.
hello weatherboykris did you see my maps? come to my blog
It is Inyo.It looks non-tropical because it is disorganized.
You don't get a non-tropical low that far south in mid-May.
Posted By: Levi32 at 2:51 PM GMT on April 30, 2007.

Interesting information Dr. Masters. Thanks.

I posted this on the other thread just before this one came up:

Posted By: Levi32 at 6:45 AM AKDT on April 30, 2007.

Morning guys :)

That blob is convection generated by a surface trough in the area. There is NO surface circulation if you look on the visible loop.

Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 2:58 AM AKDT on April 30, 2007.
these troughs are barely phasing the High, definitely not going to have a repeat of last year.

SOTC if you don't mind I need to clear something up. That surface map you have there shows nothing that we want to know. If you're looking for troughs and ridges that will steer hurricanes this year, look at the upper air maps, not the surface. That high that you guys are saying extends all the way across the Atlantic doesn't matter at all because it's the high in the upper atmosphere that matters.

Here's a link to a northern hemisphere 500mb map if you want to see it. Link

Anyway, if you want to find troughs and ridges that will affect hurricanes look either on a map like the one I gave you or the initial images of model runs. The surface map tells us nothing.


Don't bother Levi,I've tried.
Dr. Masters,

I live by the ocean in Newport Beach, CA. This time of the year, we get the "June Gloom" effect. We are socked in with the coastal haze until 2 - 3 PM sometimes, and then maybe get 3 hours of sun.

Because of this, is the degree of pollution higher, simply because it is stuck underneath the gloom, and can't escape? I know that my skin gets itchy, eyes watery, and nose drips a lot. Not a pretty sight.

Thanks!
Amy
Let's play a moneyless pool...who can guess what day our first tropical system will hit the U.S. Winner gets nothing, this is just for fun. My guess is June 4, 2007 between Pensacola and Panama City, FL.
Thanks Dr. Masters for addressing Dr. Gray's comment's on global warming.

Although we may not agree "totally" on this subject, I do respect your opinion, since you have the education and experience to back it up!

I would also agree that name-calling is very disappointing, and indeed unprofessional.

But on the other hand, I would like more explanation as to what "bad science" Dr. Gray is using. I look forward to you picking apart Dr. Gray's opinion, and do realize it is time consuming on your part. But Dr. Masters, as a community, we rely on you! And appreciate all that you do! :)

No offense, but when Al Gore spews his "bad science" (yes, Al has some too!), there seems to be little questioning from those who tend to have liberal tendencies, but when Dr. Gray does it, well he is basically dismissed.

My wish is that both sides on the Global Warming issue could throw away the bad feelings, throw away the junk science, and really search for middle ground on what we as a society can do to clean up our environment.

It is my hope, that we can all agree that we want cleaner air, and cleaner water.... imho, there is no need debating this. We just need some leadership in Washington who is credible, and not beholden to special interests. I can say that I have not seen such a person, no matter his/her political affiliation.

I just am so tired of those who want to bash, blame, name call, etc! I still believe that the Jury is out on Global Warming..... we just don't have all the facts we need to make a conclusion. I hope all sides will work together to get us there!

Posted By: Srt4Man at 5:03 PM GMT on April 30, 2007.

I know i havent posted much but I have atlantic hurricane formation questions. Thank you in advance for answers to my questions.

1.What causes tropical waves to form off the tip of africa?

2.What gets them to start spinning?


Didnt see anyone answer this and didnt want it to get left behind. But basically the ITCZ(Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) circles the globe within roughly 10 degrees north/south of the equator depending on the time of year. Much of the time the ITCZ is just a bunch of thunderstorms with no real organization. But sometimes there are areas of enhanced thunderstorms that are organized into what are called 'waves' that have weak low pressure areas associated with them. While these waves can be found in the ITCZ anywhere around the world, I believe the heating due to the African continent is favorable for there development. Many times you can see the waves coming from across the continent, 1000s of miles before they encounter the ocean.

To answer what gets them spinning, its the same thing that causes every other low pressure system, the coriolis effect. Heres the Wiki on coriolis effect
Posted By: JeffMasters (Admin)

Dr. Gray has done some great hurricane science, but has not published anything in the peer-reviewed scientific literature supporting his global warming views. I heard him present his global warming views at a conference last year, and was very disappointed at his poor science. His main arguments were emotional, not scientific. I have been meaning to write a blog on this subject for some time, but it is a very difficult time-consuming blog to write. I greatly respect Dr. Gray's hurricane research, but some of his remarks on global warming the past few years have shown a poor scientific understanding of the problem. The personal insults he has directed at many of his colleagues on the matter have been very unprofessional, as well.
Jeff Masters


Thank you Dr. Masters. I've heard it said by many people over and over, Dr. Grey is an excellent forecaster and meterologist, but not a very good climatologist. Its unfortunate that a man once so highly respected in the community for his good science and forcasting ability would devolve into letting emotion, opinions, and loose science influence his views.

If he would only do what his peers have done. He needs to write out his ideas with fact based analysis, and submit to peer review his dissention regarding climate change. I'm sure that I, as well as many others, would be vastly interested and would gladly read it. For some reason, however, I get the feeling that Dr. William Grey feels he is above the critique of his peers, and does not need to subit to them. He seems to think that everyone should just take what he says as gospel. Until the day comes when he finally subits, I fear his voice will be perceived by many (and the media will continue feed the idea) that his is mearly the voice of an angry, bitter old man.
Researchers who believe in Global Warming point to far more than temperature maps. Beyond drowning polar bears and songbirds showing up two weeks earlier across the Northern Hemisphere, even insect life in coldwater North American lakes has changed in response to shifting temps. A serious student of broader earth sciences just can't miss the signs of warming, IMHO.

It gets dicier when trying to blame it all on people. But if you've ever walked out of a dense, tree-shaded lot and climbed onto your blacktop roof in July, you can't be serious to tell me you don't think people have any effect whatsoever on Earth's climate.

Here's the rub, again IMHO: If earth is really heating up at a fairly rapid pace, does it make sense to quibble over who/what is to blame? Why not just modify some of our behavior to make some adjustments back towards temps that we and the rest of present-day nature are used to? Hey, if we plant too many trees and cool off the earth too much, we can always go cut the offending trees down!! (being facetious there)
NRA Amy wrote:

Dr. Masters,

I live by the ocean in Newport Beach, CA. This time of the year, we get the "June Gloom" effect. We are socked in with the coastal haze until 2 - 3 PM sometimes, and then maybe get 3 hours of sun.

Because of this, is the degree of pollution higher, simply because it is stuck underneath the gloom, and can't escape? I know that my skin gets itchy, eyes watery, and nose drips a lot. Not a pretty sight.

Thanks!
Amy

Anytime you have stagnant air with light winds, air pollution has the potential to build up if there is a pollution source nearby. When the sun comes out and has been cooking this air for a few hours is when I would expect the highest ozone levels to happen. If late afternoon is when you observe your symptoms, then they could weel be air pollution-related. You could also get some high levels of ozone in the morning, if a nightime land breeze brings polluted air from the city to the coast. I would check out the EPA a href=http://www.airnow.gov to look at pollution maps to see if these match what you're describing.

Jeff Masters
very interesting for friday,
Looks like a Tropical storm in the south bay of campecia.http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2006102512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour= Animation
srt4man

I'm not sure if anyone answered your questions. Just in case, while I'm no expert, I'll give it a shot.

1. What causes tropical waves off Africa?
I believe the origins are actually in east Africa and grow as they go over the humid tropics. Just a guess on that.

2. What starts them spinning?
It's called the corriolis effect. Not sure about the spelling, but due to the curvature of the earth, the distance around the planet (lattitudinally) increases as you approach the equator. The difference between the northern part of the storm and the southern part sets up the spin. Notice the rotation is counter clockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere.

Just a rough description off the top of my head. Perhaps some of the sites experts can help.
An omega block is forcasted to develope over the eastern conus by late this weekend.
What exactly is an omega block 23?
23 are you talking about the Bermuda High?
Here is an article about blocks, including omega blocks. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Block_(meteorology)
56. Inyo
Posted By: weatherboykris at 6:23 PM GMT on April 30, 2007.
It is Inyo.It looks non-tropical because it is disorganized.


That makes sense. It just looks subtropical because it has a bit of a 'comma' shape but that could be a coincidence


I still believe that the Jury is out on Global Warming..


imho the jury is still out but the suspect is on the loose and 'might' be a killer. While the jury deliberates, the possible culprit should not be running free.


Also, as Dr Masters says, stagnant air always causes air quality to drop. In this case, the 'inversion' in southern california does indeed lead to bad air quality... too many cars means smog in LA but the inversion 'stuck' behind the mountains is what makes the smog stay there.

The inversion can exist without june gloom, but june gloom pretty much always means the inversion is there - so june gloom could mean smog.
A tropical wave is an area of lower pressure in the tropics that evolves from clusters of thunderstorms over Africa. These low pressure areas form in the lee of the Ethiopian Highlands of eastern Africa, create large thunderstorm areas which migrate westward across south central Africa. These thunderstorm complexes move off the west coast of Africa near Senegal and move westward across the Atlantic.
MissBennet & OrchidGrower, great post's! You have summed a lot of my own personal feelings.

I feel for Dr. Gray! If his climate opinion's are littered with emotion's, he is only hurting his own credibility..... And Dr. Masters to his credit, has a lot of respect for Dr. Gray, and is reluctant to criticize Dr. Gray.

What was that line in that old crime show Dragnet..... "just the facts, ma'am!"

We just need the facts.... and some leadership to implement some solutions to help the situation. Let's leave the emotion, ill-will, etc.... check that at the door! ;)
Miss Bennett - agreed 100%. Having done and published scientific research in the past I always found that putting my arguements out in the literature to be the only way to go. The review process allowed me to fine-tune things if needed; also I could rebut and publish 'as is.' I have done both.

However, to by-pass that literature is to invite disaster. Remember "cold fusion"? I recall all too well people I knew and considered both friends and professional colleagues rushing out into the lay press with what they honestly thought was a great breakthrough; only to be horribly embarassed in the end. When I first read the work I was skeptical; unfortunately I was proved correct.
SJ...

An Omega block is a warm high aloft which has become displaced and is on the polarward side of the jet stream. It frequently occurs in the late winter and early spring in the Northern Hemisphere.
61. Inyo
if you are familiar with geology/hydrology... I think an Omega Block is basically an oxbow lake in the jet stream. (correct me if i'm wrong)
SJ check your mail!
imho the jury is still out but the suspect is on the loose and 'might' be a killer. While the jury deliberates, the possible culprit should not be running free.

lmao and well said!

inyo...What??? Oxbow lake???

23, so what does that mean? Is it of any relevance?
I forgot to mention a major part of an explaination about the coriolis effect.

To see it, if you sit on a merry-go-round while
it's turning and try to throw a ball to the opposite side, it will appear to curve. Actually it's going straight and your moving.

Thanks 23, there is a big red mark on the left side of my blog that let's me know when I have mail. If I am here I read it. Thanks for the link.
so thats why I missed so many e-mails last season!

I wasn't ignoring you really!!!!

well, some of you, maybe a little! LOL
looks like "somebody" bought a new weather dictionary! LOL
The smoke from the Okefenokee swamp fire is horrible here in North Central Florida. Its like fog. Its extremely dry too.

I hope we do have a shift in patterns and see the SW dry out and rain in the SE.

Now there is a couple of tornado producing storm areas w of Houston moving N east with the whole line drifting E. FYI.
looks like something is stiring south of cuba doesnt look like much but it looks like it is deepening
DocBen,

Cold Fusion ain't dead yet.

"In 2007, Mosier-Boss and Szpak, researchers in the U.S. Navy's Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center San Diego, reported evidence of nuclear reactions[3]. Two other teams have reported similar findings at the American Physical Society meeting of March 2007 (sessions A31 and B31) although interpretations vary.[4]"

Just takes time :D
man, if we could "perfect" nuclear fusion, that would be the "cat's meow"!

same benefits of nuclear fission, but without all that "waste" to bury 10,000 years!

certainly would go a long way to make the world more peaceful, since we all wouldn't be fighting over the remaining fossil fuels!
NRAamy,
I sure know what you mean about the inversions holding down pollution. When I lived in northern Italy in Verona (yes, of Romeo and Juliet fame) the air pollution was terrible. The area from Milan to Venice is in an area called the Po valley. On top of having few pollution controls, the area had no seabreezes and air was trapped by the Alps to the north. Every spring, due to stagnant weather patterns, we had pollution alerts and driving was restricted to an odd-even licence plate day. On Sundays all driving within the city was banned. Even the sky was always a hazy white color, hardly ever blue. Now I live in Portugal, right on the coast, and what a difference. We have constant seabreezes from the west and northwest. This is thanks to the Azores high you all talk about so much. Pure sea air and the nearest land to the west is the U.S., several thousand miles away.
OMEGA BLOCK

*It resembles the Greek letter Omega. The 500-millibar panel from 29 APR 99 to May 1 shows an example of this blocking pattern. Air over the Southwest US in forced to the north into Canada and then back south into the Southeast US by the huge high-pressure ridge in the center of the country. The region under the omega block experiences dry weather and light wind for an extended period of time while rain and clouds are common in association with the two troughs on either side of the omega block. Omega blocks make forecasting easier since you can pinpoint areas that will be dominated by dry or rainy weather for several days. The right side of the omega block will have below normal temperatures while the region to the left will have above normal temperatures in this case.
There are people on both sides of the fence:

1.Global warming is real

2.GL is a hoax being fabricated by environmentalists.

We can all agree that the burning of fossil fuels causes pollution. Our food & water supply risk getting contaminated. Besides that, the use of fossil fuels will likely get increasingly more expensive with time.

In the short run (10-20 yrs) I would like to see the USA build 2-3 dozen nuclear power plants so that we burn less coal. Solar power doesn't need to be efficient, just cheap. It would be nice to see vehicles use a combination of electric (plug in capability) & solar panels to generate electricity.

Whether you believe Global Warming or not, going away from fossil fuels makes the best economic & environmental sense.
If France can get 90% of their electricity from Nuclear power, surely we can do the same!
I thought it was more like 70% Thel... But anyways, I get the point.
www.wunderground.com/blog/Tazmanian/comment.html?entrynum=1000&tstamp=200704
Posted By: rxse7en at 8:09 PM GMT

Would you happen to have a link to that? I'd be interested in reading it.

Is it the same sort of room-temperature reactions claimed by the Utah researchers back in the late 80s?
The 1970 Atlantic Tropical Season..In pdf.By Dr Neil Frank. A good read on then ..compared to now. Link
81. Dyce
Had alot of smoke here in Orlando not to long ago. Starting to go away.
lol

lots of thunderstorm activity on the Galveston radar
When I was in the 5th and 6th grade, I remember my lungs/chest aching when I was playing on the playground. This was in the early '60s. Air pollution in the U.S. improved since then, but with world population growth, it has started downhill again.

As an aside, I moved to Florida from L.A. two years ago and the sky here in the last couple of days reminds me of what the sky looked like then as a result of June gloom.
Posted By: StormW at 9:23 PM GMT on April 30, 2007.

Posted By: geographerguy at 7:29 PM GMT on April 30, 2007.

srt4man

I'm not sure if anyone answered your questions. Just in case, while I'm no expert, I'll give it a shot.

1. What causes tropical waves off Africa?
I believe the origins are actually in east Africa and grow as they go over the humid tropics. Just a guess on that. 2. What starts them spinning?
It's called the corriolis effect. Not sure about the spelling, but due to the curvature of the earth, the distance around the planet (lattitudinally) increases as you approach the equator. The difference between the northern part of the storm and the southern part sets up the spin. Notice the rotation is counter clockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere.

Just a rough description off the top of my head. Perhaps some of the sites experts can help.

TROPICAL WAVES



You should read Dr. Bob Sheets book "Hurricane Warning".He gives great info on tropical waves(which start spinning when they go over and around the east African mountain ranges and interact with them.In the Atlantic ocean,the Coriolis force keeps them spinning.He also gives a great day-by-day commentary of Hurricane Andrew,descriptions of the computer models,the history of aircraft recon,radar,and huricane forecasting back to Columbus.A great book.
So,while the Coriolis force keeps them spinning when they're over West Africa and the ocean,they start spinning in the mountains.
The history of all tropical systems that formed over the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico during the 1970 hurricane season has been documented. There were a total of 87 systems from which 26 depressions and seven named storms evolved.

They must have had different criteria for disturbances and depressions back then; now we only see a few unnamed depressions if any (the "87 systems" must be like invests, although there are nowhere near that many invests in a season, so back then they counted just about every single cloud... LOL).
TCW-Thanks for the explain on the Omega block. I think I get it now. Basically the SE is going to be dry for a while to come and the temps will drop a little later in the week?
TX and OK are blowing up!
It depends on where the High sets up SJ, if it sets up. Based on our local forcast, the high is going to set up further east! Giving us warm temps and a summerlike pattern with Southeast winds. The cooler weather would be on the right side of the high, this being the Atlanic. The storm the GFS is predicting could be a spin off of the Omega Block! Shear under the Omega would be very low!
Thanks TCW, I am still a little confused though. If the Omega block is a high then would it not be hard for anything to form under it due to the higher pressures.

Thanks again, I always like learning, and being reminded of the stuff I once new and forgot ☺
thanks thelmores for the website
Hey everybody good afternoon, Even though the longrange GFS is not that accurate i still like paying attention to them, THE 2 MOST RECENT GFS LOOPS THE 12UTC AND 18UTC ARE TO CLOSE FOR COMFORT!
i highly reccomend this site for satellite imageryLink
The same setup could spell trouble here (full details in my blog); here is a line from the NWS:

...this scenario is very rare...can't remember ever seeing one like this in my 40 years of service...
can someone please post a link for GFS
CLOSED LOW WILL FAIL TO DISPATE TRAVEL NE ON A SLOW ROLL DIRUAL WILL BRING THE DREADED NITE STORM AS MANY AS FOUR WILL TOUCH DOWN F3's WILL BE THE RULE
29 days to go
18Z just keeps harping on development down there that just is not going to happen.

Pic of 360hr GFS showing a very weak area 1008mb LP moving NE away from the united atates.Give it 3-5 more weeks.
For those interested in satelitte imagery for the tropical atlantic and the tropics in general visit my satelitte imagery page on my site.

Satelitte imagery links +Models
NCEP models page (NAM, GFS, HRW, NGM, etc).
Hello all! Looks like 2 more weeks and the shear will be out of the gulf and carib.I say it will be an early start.Is there usually that much shear at this time of the year? I mean,Is this normal?
I mean,Is this normal?

Absolutely:

Tropical Atlantic shear (blue = observed; black = normal):


Caribbean shear:


For the most part, shear has been averaging lower than normal since the beginning of the year in the tropics (notice in particular the very large drops in February and April), although "normal" is still pretty high.
nuttin is normal everything has changed can't trust weather is unpredicable a lot is going on and a lot is about to happen and nuttin can be done but adapt to ur surrounds
What is the average shear (knots) that a system can overcome or survive and be able to continue to develop?
where is the area of strongest shear right now
less than 20 kts normally i believe
it looks as if these waves are trying to hold together but the shear is ripping them apart the shear will be out in 2 weeks i feel we will get a huge number of developing storms early
strongest shear over the bahammas

Chess, you can find several sites with the GFS and the GFS long range on it from here. You can also find almost all of the other models from there as well. I like the Air Resources Laboratory site as you can view the maps using Java, a GIF, or Java Script.


Good to see you BT!

Night all!
that wave i've been following in the caribean looks to have held together but the shear in this stage of the game is not favorable for development in that region...it looked pretty healthy this afternoon
I live in the Tampa area and eveyone around here thinks that we just can't a hurricane.Too many close calls with the storms of 04 and 05 makes them feal we have an old indian "shield" around the area.I think were're due!
i thought that about south louisiana for awhile too till we got rocked with katrina and Rita in the same year and then if you remember Hurricane Lily a few years back
90E?

lol
Hi everyone.. was wondering the probabilities of this year bein as active as 2004? and possibly carry the same pattern where storms move into gulf?
"They" say a cat 2 is a major cane for this area.I really wouldn't want to see more,Although I do want to see a cane...once anyway.Hope all is well in LA from Kat/Rita.


Here is the current wind shear
StormW been doing ok
stormhank...still too early to make educated predictions. Anything now would be gut feelings. Those are right sometimes though
well we live in south central louisiana so we were on the outer edges of both katrina and rita but lily hit us dead on as a cat 2 and man that thing was terrible you dont realize how strong 100 mph winds can be
strongest cane i've been in was ivan. only got to cat 2 stregth around me though
I never been in one,but want to experience it..in a safe way I hope.I would never stay for a 3 or higher.I'm 2 blks from the gulf and 7ft above sea level.
lol

lol


lol

lol


her is what shear is like
the strongest cyclone I've seen (in a distance because I am Midwest) was Ivan. I was able to see the storm clouds when looking south.
Hey stormw!

Taz there is a convergence zone in that area cause moderate thunderstorms nothing tropical yet.
i12BNEi

I live in Clearwater. We have been very lucky, but it is not that uncommon for an area not to get a direct hit from a hurricane. Everything that I have seen and looked at it looks like the west coast of Florida will get hit this year. The cooler the Midwest is this year the more I think the west coast might get hit. The problem with the west coast of Florida is how it curves out a little and the angle the storms come (charley was only 25 miles off its path and I didnt even get rain from it). Plus it does not take long for a storm to hit the west coast once the front picks it up and it gets to the gulf. Charley was only in the gulf for half a day and William was only in the gulf for little over the day. So once the storm turns half of the west coast is in play. Let us pray that we dont get hit. I read something that Max Mayfield said. The 3 worst places for damage of a direct hit would be Miami, New York, and Tampa Bay. He also said the hardest place to get people out will be the Florida Keys, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay. This was before Katrina too.
HadesGodWyvern ok
Things may start quite slow...

One main reason iam looking at is the strong tutt that is located over the central and eastern atlantic currently.Also i would like to add there is currently 40-50kt shear across most of eastern atlantic from the african coast to parts of the caribbean.I think the main factor here that might hold off any early development will be the tutt being well established as it is.
Thanks storm W n bama. yes, still kind of early. Ive read several articles though stating that it seems the gulf states and carribean seems to be target areas for storms this year.. lets hope we have no katrinas nor ivans.
hmmmmm....seems like the floridians are taking over the blog again.
23 this say it you this want a slow year like we saw in 06 huh? will sorry i wont be like that this year thing will start going in late may or the 1st week of june and yes wind shear will lower a lot by then this be come there is high wind shear now dos not mean it cant lower in the next few weeks or so you this want to see like we saw back in 06 that why you are telling evere one it will be a slow start
i have a feeling this season is going to be interesting. I dont exactly know what interesting means but interesting non the less.
really i just got back from old chicago in palm harbor
I was living in Clearwater when Charley was on it's way.I remeber...Friday the 13th (When I met my girlfriend and a year later during Katrina I had my Daughter..Rain).Anyway I live in Crystal Beach now and am amazed at how people really don't think it can happen.Pinellas would be a bad place if a 3 or higher hit.But I agree that the west coast is in for it this year.
Bamatracker yes it will be i cant wait
shear flutuates too much.. its 20-30 knots one week and 60-70 knots another... but I guess that's spring
The strongest storm that I have been in wasn't even tropical, although it had winds equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane.
hello STL
I lived in the midwest for a while and been close to a couple of tornadoes. Being under a spiralling funnel cloud was probably the wierdest weather i've experenced.
i dont think we will see any may storms. Maybe an invest or two but no depressions
Does the smoke from the GA Brushfires affect the weather pattern in Central Florida? I notice temperatures closer to 90 and poor air quality. Whats going on? I saw the extended forecast for Orlando bring only a 20% chance of rain by Saturday? Doesn't the air need to mix to clean out the smoke? With little or no wind won't the air stay the same?
yea sporteguy....hope you like the smoke
i12BNEi

Charley was strange. I went to take a nap. I was expecting a long afternoon and night. When my mom called (from Ohio) in a hysteric, telling me it was not a cat 4, I turned on the news and they said it moved south. So I then went fishing. Without being rude I dont want to get hit by a storm, but parts of Largo and Pinellas Park can be cleared out and rebuilt.
am i the only one from south louisiana in here....its weird because we never really got hit alot down here till a few years ago
June and july are typically very slow when it comes to named systems and this year will probably be no different.
im in Sarasota Florida and and the smoke is pretty well cleared out
exactly my thoughts 23...climatology is always the safest bet this time of year
Crackerlogic

LOL,I hope nothing major comes.Actually if a major one hits anywhere what will insurance do then?That is worse than any storm.I think the economy now has alot to due with Katrina/Rita and Wilma.Who knows what will happen then.I will make the system change alot.
(It will make the system change)..
We currently have a 1030mb High pressure located near the Azore Islands. This high pressure is right on time for it's postioning as we move into May.

Here is part of the discussion from TWD/TPC.

OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A 1030 MB
SFC HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N29W. THIS IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES E OF 50W.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WRN ATLC
WHILE STRONGER/LARGER HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
ERN ATLC. WEAK CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS WILL SUPPORT
THE SLOWLY DYING FRONTAL TROUGH NE OF THE SE BAHAMAS OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.


i12BNEi

It will do that,I dont have a house just because of the insurance rates
23 is it more W?
I just can't understand 23, when your referring to the CATL and East Atlantic, why you think it will be a slow start. If a pre-season or early start to the year were to happen or not happen, A- it would happen in the Gulf or Caribbean and B- The patterns in the CATL and East Atlantic would have no relavence what so ever! The CATL and East Atlantic won't come into play until late July! To speculate 3 months prior is foolish!
TheCaneWhisperer 23 this wants to have a slow start like we saw in 06 that why he is saying what he is saying
TheCaneWhisperer well said
I think its going to be a slow start because climatology says so. Of course a slow start use to mean no storms in June. Now it means what? 2 storms in June becuase 2005 was so crazy.
*sigh*

2006 DID NOT have a slow start:



That is normal... 2006 had 1 storm in June and 3 in July... that is way more than normal... which is only 1 storm in both months...

Note: I think the dates for last storm and last hurricane should be switched; there is no way the last hurricane can occur after the last storm.
crackerlogic

And the taxes,Holy ..cow.The taxes and insurance is more than the mortgage.I don't see how some people are holding on.Maybe a revised system would be better.Could it be worse?
good post michaelstl
Doesnt it begin in June?
172. RL3AO
That disturbance is looking very interesting in the EPac
i know theres no official start of monsson season but it starts around then
Lets just we dont see any more devastation cause ive had enough the past of years.Hopefully a similar pattern will be in place this season and everything will be turned away.


yes but normally you wont have any named seasons in June.
The June 1st to November 30th hurricane season was defined because the vast majority of storms form between those dates (something like 99%), not because the first storm usually develops in early June and the last storm dissipates in late November (2004 had the first storm in August while last year had the last storm dissipate in early October).
Posted By: Tazmanian at 6:09 PM GMT on April 30, 2007.

look like the big H is strating to set up shop we would no more on where the high will be by last may or so
so what does this mean for florida???
does anybody know the percentage of named storms that actually make landfall somewhere?

I would guess less than 50%
Alberto was what late May early June..
about 15-25%
181. RL3AO
Percentage of named storms that make landfall. My guess would be around 30%.
Alberto was 6/10 to 6/14
about 15-25%
ok...way less than 50%.
ah June 10th
: Crisis57 too soon to tell yet wait a few more weeks
3/10 storms made landfall in 06, so about 30%
hi Chris
so what does june 10 mean?
Y'all crack me - it doesn't make if it is 1% or 50% - it is the pitts, depending on how strong, for the area that the cane hits. And it doesn't have to be a cane - remember Allison.
8/28=30% in 05
7 out of 28 storms made landfall in 2005 (25%) and 8 out of 15 in 2004 (53%); it obviously varies from year to year. This is also only U.S. landfalls.
Iam expecting an average cape-verde season.
9/15 in 04!
where do u get that? i got it in tropical archive on tropic page
true hornfan...it only takes one to make a bad year. No matter where or when it hits you. The point im trying to make is that its not normal to have a named storm in june and its not normal for any storm to hit the states.
cant wait in tell june
oh ok only us landfalls sorry
more than likely we will be blob watching all of june
I don't count storms like Ophelia, which did not make landfall by the exact definition (center passes over the coastline).
You dont need to have an early start to have a busy season, I think the reason we had such a busy year in 05 and the storms are so strong is out technology now. In 05 does any one think the Bret, Gert, Jose, would be named storms or even noticed 5 or 10 years ago? I think we might have as many cat 5 storms, but we never had the way to accurately get the reading to make it the right cat level. Andrew was a cat 4 until 10 years later.
2005 was a once in a life time event and will probably not happen again for another 50 years or so.Numbers predicted are not important as it only takes one to ruin lives.Even a quite season has the potential to turn out devasting.
Yes Bama - but if you look at the historical data - we are in an active period of canes. Although our weather brought the gulf temps down SOME - it just take one storm to sneak into the gulf early. It may not and probably won't be major but it will still be a storm.
best thing to do is be ready by beginning of June...but dont expect to see rapid fire major hurricanes into the US.
weve learned form last year that our little "debates" on TPW can start something, lets keep it cool this year
I say 3rd week of may we'll start the season.
MONSOON SEASON IS COMING!!!!!!!!!!!
210. MZT
Massive Cat 4/5 storms almost always make landfall somewhere. They're too large not to at least brush some islands, and they tend to barge their way through common weather patterns. They don't get "steered" away or "skirt" the Bermuda High as easily.
I agree Hornfan we could see a named storm this year in June. All im saying it its now historically normal..thats all. Heck almost anything is possible.
Hurricanes and major hurricane landfalls:



From here
now should read not
i hate to say i mean seem weird but maybe you guys will feel the same way..i love hurricane season i wait for it every year these storms excite me that bad i mean i would never dream of anyone getting hurt but i just like the awesome power of them and being able to watch them
cracker -- there is something to be said about what technology has done to track the intensity of storms - I wonder what the storms of the 1950s and 60s would rate on today's scale
216. MZT
Crackerlogic, I think we do name storms more readily than we used to. I remember in the 1980s it seemed like a depression needed to stay at tropical storm strength for an advisory or two, before being named. Now, it seems like one quadrant of TS winds is good enough.

hurricanes struck me and my family close as my grandpa drowned in hurricane audry i guess that is what drives me to be interested in these storms
Massive Cat 4/5 storms almost always make landfall somewhere

That is also because the Caribbean and Gulf have the warmest water and highest heat content in the Atlantic basin; the strongest storms occurred in this area.
im out...you all have a great night!!!!
Does anyone think that the Earthquake in Indonesia has anything to do with the changing weather patterns?They said it tilted the axis like 2 degrees.Wouldn't that effect some patterns?
that don't make sense.. A tropical storm strength storm has to stay at that force for 12 hours.. to become named?
Posted By: louisianaboy444 at 2:40 AM GMT on May 01, 2007.

i hate to say i mean seem weird but maybe you guys will feel the same way..i love hurricane season i wait for it every year these storms excite me that bad i mean i would never dream of anyone getting hurt but i just like the awesome power of them and being able to watch them


Same here.
I think everyone's like that,to some extent.
Posted By: weatherboykris at 7:47 PM PDT on April 30, 2007.

Posted By: louisianaboy444 at 2:40 AM GMT on May 01, 2007.

i hate to say i mean seem weird but maybe you guys will feel the same way..i love hurricane season i wait for it every year these storms excite me that bad i mean i would never dream of anyone getting hurt but i just like the awesome power of them and being able to watch them

Same here.



same her as well
weatherboykris come to my blog
louisianaboy

That's why I'm here.
bret was a depression for 6 hours and a storm for 12 hours
I like hurricane season, because it brings surfing waves!!!!
229. MZT
I think the precision of today's technology tempts forecasters to use a name when they can find one quadrant of TS winds.

Advisories in the early 1980s had more cautious wording about tropical depressions, that "may have reached TS strength". I suspect they were more patient to wait for airplane confirmation, or perhaps wanted to see TS winds in more than one quadrant.

Thanks Dr. M for the AP links - I had not seen them before. We don't think about air pollution that much in Florida (unless it's the smell of potpourri from the snow birds)(no offense:). That being said, it looks like at this time, several Florida cities have among the highest ozone levels in the CONUS., probably for the reasons outlined in the blog.
How's your ozone?
Posted By: louisianaboy444 at 2:40 AM GMT on May 01, 2007.

i hate to say i mean seem weird but maybe you guys will feel the same way..i love hurricane season i wait for it every year these storms excite me that bad i mean i would never dream of anyone getting hurt but i just like the awesome power of them and being able to watch them

Same here.


While I would have said that before the season of 2005, I can not say that anymore. After personally seeing the damage on property and people. If we could only watch them without the threat
To me,it doesn't make a difference wether they excite you or not.They're still gonna either come,or miss.goodnight.
If the GoM is this cool on April 30, how do you guys know it will be able to fuel intense major hurricanes this year? Or do Gulf temps generally get very hot, even if they are cool early on?
Gulf SSTs vary from around 10-15*C during the winter to 30+ in the summer; this is also why the heat content is generally low, except for the Loop Current - only the surface gets very warm, unlike the Caribbean where the water stays above 80 all year.
I see. Thanks STL. Why does everyone think we are going to have a quiet June and July? I disagree. The current active phase since 1995 has stayed in place, since in 2006, there were several tropical waves that had the potential to develop into tropical storms but did not. I don't see any reason why 2007, especially with a possible La Nia, should not have 1-2 June storms, and 3-4 July storms. This is just wishcasting that everybody's throwing here.
236. MZT
I agree. In 2006 Africa sent several sizable waves to their doom, among the ULLs and dust that was waiting. For 2007, watch and wait....
I think we will see a couple of Depression's in late May or June, Possibly a Tropical Storm! I personally think our first named storm will be in early July, the first week! In the next week or two, summer patterns will set up and more accurate assumptions can be made.
When I start to hear the rumble of thunder in the afternoon is when we know the summer pattern is set, then I start looking at the patterns!
Who is thelmores? And are you telling me I'm ignorant? I oughta report you for trolling...
Morning all! Now "they" say we may be in for ozone alerts here in central Florida today. Thanks! Just blogging about it makes it happen. (I know - it's bad luck to be superstitious.) I guess this swamp fire smoke adds to the problem on top of the clear & warm weather. Next you all will be discussing hurricanes & we will have those!
Good morning all, that blob moving off the Northern coast of Panama seems to have a little rotation to it...If I am not mistaken though it looks like there may be quite a bit of shear in the Northern Carribbean, so nothing will hold together... We could use a good Tropical depression for the rain along the North and Eastern Gulf Coast
Morning all.

Korithe, the Gulf SSTs are not reallly that cool for this time of year. They are actually warmer then they were in '05, just not as hot as they were in '06.

That said, the Gulf has been warming pretty rapidly the past couple of weeks.

I usually have some great year to year SST comparison maps in my blog. Right now there is some problem with the site the maps come from and the prior year maps are not viewable. Hope this issue is resolved soon. I have emailed the John Hopkins APL admin to see what the issue is.
lolimg


even if it has circulation it is not organized enough and it does not have near enough convection.
lol

heres the quickscat for that area
Chessrascal, I agree with ya, I know nothing is gonna happen with it, just like to see everyone elses thoughts. Thanks for putting up the maps
DocBen,

I pulled that quote from Wikipedia (Cold Fusion):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_fusion

I remember the day they "unveiled" their experiment--I was in a really terrible "Mind Control" class in college at the time--it really was about mind control. :D

Lots of reading material: http://lenr-canr.org/

B
louisianaboy444 wrote:

am i the only one from south louisiana in here....its weird because we never really got hit alot down here till a few years ago


I live in New Orleans, does that count? and I think Patrap is from here too. Don't feel alone boy444
Oh boy - this is the ONE blog that I come to that is normally peaceful and quiet - you guys are the genuises - the ones who are ALWAYS about the weather and ALWAYS about the facts- don't challenge each other - you're too good for that - all of you! Keep on posting and learning and let us lurkers learn along with you. You are all so smart and so capable.
Sorry Saddle..... couldn't resist answering my critics! LOL

If the news story I quoted were anybody but Dr. Gray, I would have refrained. But my intentions were certainly not to "offend" or "attack" anybody! I simply wanted to discuss Dr. Gray's credibility. Even Dr. Masters was not silent on this issue..... I also wanted to make the point that squabbling over GW is useless! We need some leadership to help clean up our environment, and we all should want clean air/ clean water, no debate required.

But it seems there is always somebody who wants to make things "personal"...... what a shame! :)
A little rusty there SW? lol, took me a while to remember everything also.
But it seems there is always somebody who wants to make things "personal"...... what a shame! :)

I think so Thel- I think all the opinions here are what makes this blog so useful and so informative. This particular blog seems full of people who do their research and know about what they are talking. I believe the argument is also good, but when people attack other people and do make it "personal" it just gets ugly -believe me I know.

Either way, no apology necessary- I enjoy the information you guys are always posting here. I lurk a lot.
Now that it is May. We can look at the 60 hour model for GOM SSTs...Link
The LSU Tropical /Earth scan page has many good links..Link
Posted By: thelmores

But it seems there is always somebody who wants to make things "personal"...... what a shame! :)


I'm sorry to offend and let the blog continue in this vein; but I just want to point out the fact that I find it ironic that trg1299 seems to be taking a page out of Dr. Gray's book. He uses personal attacks to try to belittle his opponents instead of acctually saying something substantitive.

*sigh* see what kind of role model Bill's become?! J/K =)

I'm a lurker too and very rarely post my opinions. Only when someone ruins my reading enjoyment to I work up enough steam to acctually press the post button.

I enjoy this Blog alot as it satisfies one and a half of my 5 major passions,(1) Weather and the (1/2) Environment. I love the sudo-science presented here and the guestimates because i get to guess right along with you all. Keep up the good humor, the fun, and the wild hair ideas, they keep me lurking.

P.S. I get to go see Al Gore give his "Inconveinent Truth" lecture today and I'm stoaked!!
"P.S. I get to go see Al Gore give his "Inconveinent Truth" lecture today and I'm stoaked!!"

MissBennet, we look forward to your critique....

can you get Al's autograph for me? LOL

Maybe you can ask Al what he thinks of Dr. Gray's comments? That would be interesting! :)
Hi all any potential of that wave coming off of Africa doing anything.... I know it is way to early in the season to be looking over that way....
Sorry Bama.....gotta wait till July to get anything off Africa.
another surface low emerging in the East Pacific

Actually, the surface low is still over Columbia. The satellite is just showing the illusion of a swirl and a low.

i said EMERGING, Levi, which means not quite SUBMERGED yet, you seem to love to misinterpret my observations and correct them lol, same thing happened yesterday
Not at all SOTC! I think you can ask anyone around here and they'll say I try to hear everyone's opinion. I'm not like all the other brats that come here in June. In my eyes, the word "emerging" means on the coast getting ready to pop out over water. That's just me. Plus that low is just going to sit there anyway so it's never going to "emerge".

I'm sorry if I seem to love correcting you lol. That's definitely not what I intended.
lol i dont mind it, just dont take my comments out of context, if I say emerging it means it has not yet submerged itself into the East Pacific. I wouldn't have pointed it out if you didn't do the exact same thing yesterday regarding the troughs off the east coast.
Now the troughs were different. I misunderstood you. I thought you were talking about a pattern relating to the hurricane season, but I was mistaken, and I apologize. Anyway, I guess I'll just have to learn your language lol.
haha no problem, misunderstandings will happen

Ok, here's where I like to say something lol. I might seem annoying when I do this, but it's necessary especially when storms are forming. That map you posted above is a GFS FORECAST for 6 hours. It is NOT an analysis. Plus it's a forecast from 8pm EST yesterday. The map I posted is an actual analysis, not a model initialization or forecast, so technically it is more accurate. Therefore that particular map can't be trusted for 100% accurate positions of highs and lows, although it has many other uses.

But I don't want to get annoying lol.
just posted it to show the location of the Highs and Lows gracing our water this morning, not trying to get technical, 6 hours is really not that hard to forecast lol
*Sigh*, it's impossible to explain myself isn't it lol. There's going to be a LOT of people coming in here in June and posting stuff like this all the time trying to be perfectly...perfect lol. I myself am a perfectionist so I naturally like things to be accurate for other people to see. Like I said that's just me. Nobody's ever had a problem with how I discuss things before. When a wave is "emerging" into the Pacific, I have to point out that for one it's still 100 miles inland, and second it's going to stay there anyway.

Sorry if I seem like I love beating up on you, because I don't lol. Just wait until people like STORMTOP and lefty and all those other brats come in here in a month lol. Ug I dislike those guys. They think we're all newbies and idiots lol.
SOTC-its easy to be taken out of context when you change the contents of your comments. LOL
haha those guys are great. everybody has their different methods of forecasting and analyzing data, doesn't mean one person's method is wrong or one person's is right, they just go about it in different ways. Weather by definition is unpredictable, so anybody who thinks they can predict it is obviously full of it.
You think those guys are great? You're not serious right? LOL.

everybody has their different methods of forecasting and analyzing data, doesn't mean one person's method is wrong or one person's is right, they just go about it in different ways.

Exactly! And I try to tell everyone that when they start arguing in June lol. I'm most certainly not trying to put my method over yours, just trying to contribute what I observe, in addition to what you observed. Anyway you can choose to not understand where I'm coming from if you want, but that's what I've always done. I won't be in this blog this season anyway because of all the idiots that will show up, so you won't have to deal with me lol.
i rarely change comments, i usually just add to them.
No I 100% agree that your map is an analysis and my map is a forecast, but I never tried to compare them. You should stay on here for the season, you know your stuff, I think stormtop got banned on here anyway, the annoying people will eventually not be able to comment on here because so many people poorly rate their comments with the "-" and "!" buttons. Probably the best addition to this blog, aside from being able to edit your comments :)
Ok, I'll try to be more sensitive then if I'm being too picky. I'll still be on this site, just on other blogs besides this one, unless you're right and the "bad" people are taken care of, which I hope they are soon.

I have to get to school now. Have a great day everyone!
SOTC-I'm really not trying to bust balls here, but...

In your original post of the GFS MSLP Forcast you commented to the effect that, "See the low is already over the coast". After Levi refuted your evidence, the comment was changed to the current apologetic tone.

But your other post was possibly factually correct; you may rarely change comments. However on this post, you must have exercised this rarity.

just be careful in the way you go about trying to correct people, how you come off is half the problem most of the time. Most people on here, like myself, know that they don't know everything and merely try to make observations within their capacity. It is very easy to see the StormTop's who know as much or less as most of us but try to seem like they know more.
A low over Columbia? Nothing, or so I have been told - there is pratically always a low there, more or less stationary (GFS forecast).
what I said on the forecast map was "It is emerging off the coast", but I decided to correct that because although it looks as though it will do so I don't know for sure so I wanted to avoid an argument
Seriously Levi, I was with you right up to the point of putting ST and Lefty in the same sentence. Not even close! Lefty offered opinions and data based facts of relevance. ST preaches from a mountain top about he is right and listen to him and ignore the data. I know Lefty has his moments where he is a little more blunt then needed, but come on. Lefty and ST don't even compare.

Please also keep in mind that most of the brats just need to learn to have a better understanding in order to not be brats anymore.
thats a good point, StormJunkie, some people are interpreted as brats although they merely just aren't aware of their mistakes. The "brats" on here are rarely the ones causing the problems, its the "know-it-alls" that ridicule the "brats" for being wrong or misinterpreted. Personally StormTop is the only "brat" I have seen on here in quite some time, there are a lot more "know-it-alls"
SJ, I've only seen lefty during the 2005 hurricane season when I was lurking, but my impression of him was to argue, and argue, and argue, and personally I don't like him. His language is filthy for one thing....

Obviously no one compares to stormtop, but as far as I'M concerned, lefty is grouped with my list of "brats". Also I'm not saying the brats can't change, but for 2 years in a row they've remained unchanged, so what am I supposed to think? Gee I never intended for any of this to happen this morning. Guess I'll go back to hiding out.

Gotta go. Later all.
Story, while I agree about being careful about how you correct people, sometimes it gets to the point with people posting stuff they have no clue about that you have to become straight forward. Blunt or not, as long as you are backing it up with facts and data I have usually have no issue with it. But when folks come in trying to be big dogs and post maps and other info that they do not understand it is misleading, and we have to remember that many folks will not ask questions and that there are many folks that just read the Drs blog. I think we all sort of keep each other in check so usually no misinformation gets relayed and sometimes that is a touchy balancing act.
I agree, although I don't think anything I have posted thus far could be classified as "misleading"
Just for the record I have no ill will out for ya SOTC. I wouldn't have even noticed your edit if I hadn't been refreshing evey 30 sec or so.

Sorry if I came off as a pr!ck. Not my intention, at all.

Don't go in to hiding Levi, this is a very good conversation IMHO.

That '05 season was hard on all of us and it changed us all in different ways. Lefty included. I know he can be argumentative. I can not defend his flaws. As for language, it has toned down since the '05 season. A lot of time he does provide good info though and tries not to mislead.

My biggest issue is when folks come up with a theory and then just look for one or two maps or other info sources to support it without understanding the other aspects. A lot of that can be changed by turning points in to questions though. Most of what I do is ask questions unless I am fairly certain my statement is not misleading. This also leads to a good discussion that many can learn from.
Now that people are arguing over who is the most obnoxious blogger, I thought I would post this story Link
no problem seminolesfan, you didn't come off that way. Im sure most of us have made typos, changed their mind, wanted to avoid conflict, etc and changed their post accordingly.

Just curious, can anybody prove that this Low will not emerge into the Pacific or Atlantic? Or are they just guessing it will stay put?
Morning guys how is everyone?
There is almost always a low in that location, more or less stationary; I think it is due to the topography of the land there (somebody else told me about it last year, after I myself thought that it might do something).
so what about storms like Wilma that form in that area?
If we have a more "neutral" than "La Nina " pattern this year in pacific doesnt that mean more hurricane activity for atlantic? Whats everyones thinking as far as numbers this year? Im going 16 9 4? just my opinion
I know MichaelSTL can eloborate on this more in depth, but that area just about always has L area. I think it has something to do with the 3-cell theory of atmos curents.
19, 13 and 7 for me
oops, sorry MSTL, I thougt it was you that talked about it last yr. :)
Wait, was STORMTOP back?
I havent seen StormTop since mid-season of 2006
did Wilma form off of a Tropical Wave or a Surface Low?
storm top is gettin his crop duster fined tuned for the first named storm LOL :O
So what would you call the convection in the Pacific if its not part of the surface low?


I think they follow me :P When I moved to south florida, Andrew came through, Then I moved to central florida, and something else came there after (I cant remember its name). I moved to the gulf coast of florida and Ivan came shortly after I moved here, Its my magnetic personality! Lol
How come this isn't considered two SEPERATE surface lows? They seem to be parting ways to me

nobody wants to tackle those questions?
STOTC...I think it is just a disorganized area of low pressure, not really a surface low as you would think about with a tropical system. This is just my geuss, maybe someone could elaborate more or correct me if I am wrong.
okay so say that Low stays stationary over South America, what would you call a low that emerges from that Low that appears to be happening now? At what point does a Low become two seperate entities? Why isn't every single "L" on that map considered a seperate Low Pressure System?
Well, not sure I can answer that question SOTC, but there is no organized circulation there, you are looking at a forecast not analysis, and I think that blob is too far south to get spinning anyway...

I geuss you might call it a cutoff low, but not even sure about that. Those are usually associated with fronts and troughs if I am not mistaken...
Another suggestion STOC, look at all of the models and see if you can find one that hints at development. If you see other models starting to jump on board then it should warrent a little more attention.

You can find most of the models and model pages from the Quick Links page at SJ.com. Also try using vorticity models as well as pressure models.
It looks like a low embedded in the ITCZ.
I bow to your better timing StormW. lol
They both say :25 so we'll call it a tie.
Also, the GFS seems to favor more of a dual low pressure center forcast than the other models(CMC, NOGAPS, UKMET, etc.), so the models do not agree on this forcast.
Not really relevant for this forcast area is it?
ahh, the smell of fire burning..

sucks. We are so dry in SWFL (high 600's on the drought index) that at least 1 or 2 50+ acres fire goes up a day. Lehigh Acres is getting the brunt of it. Hazy days...90 degrees...We actually had our first seabreeze collision induced rain shower in Cape Coral yesterday...let's hope we get more of it with no lightning!
Well here we go.. This one should be interesting. I hope the off season treated everyone well. Lets try and keep the discussions above the 3rd grade level this year. It was interesting last year to see whose, umm you know what was bigger, but it didn't help anyone with forecasting or analysis. I look forward to learning as I do every year.
What are the chances no Atlantic storms develope this year?
Good afternoon...

Just wanted to announce once again the GFS upgrade which is now in affect.Some of the changes here.

Here is some of the changes.

1. REPLACE SPECTRAL STATISTICAL INTERPOLATION /SSI/ ANALYSIS
SYSTEM WITH GRIDPOINT STATISTICAL INTERPOLATION /GSI/
ANALYSIS SYSTEM.

2. USE OF INCREASED OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING FULL RESOLUTION
ATMOSPHERIC INFRARED SOUNDER /AIRS/ DATA...CONSTELLATION
OBSERVING SYSTEM FOR METEOROLOGY...IONOSPHERE AND CLIMATE
/COSMIC/ GLOBAL POSITIONING SYSTEM RADIO OCCULTATION /GPSRO/
DATA.

MODEL CHANGES:

3. MODIFY SIGMA COORDINATE SYSTEM TO A HYBRID SIGMA-PRESSURE
COORDINATE SYSTEM.

4. UPDATED GFS RADIATION MODULE

PRODUCT CHANGES:

5. SURFACE FLUX FILES HAVE 30 NEW RECORDS MAINLY FOR
HYDROLOGICAL USE

6. CHANGE OUTPUT OF GLOBAL DIAGNOSTIC ASSIMILATION SYSTEM
/GDAS/ FROM 3-HOURLY TO HOURLY

7. MODEL TO NATIVE OUTPUT FILE WILL CHANGE FROM A SIGMA
SPECTRAL BINARY FILE TO A HYBRID SPECTRAL BINARY FILE
this is my very first comment. it looks that the upcoming season should be very interesting compared to last year. looking forward to it.
Looks pretty quiet on here for now. Will wait another week or so and this place will be busier than Wal-Mart on the first of the month.
lmao NG, good to see you.

Welcome aboard sf.
Thanks for all your answers StormJunkie, StormW and seminoles. Just to clear it up I was asking more for the understanding how these Lows work than for suggesting development in the Pacific.
what would be the MDR region in the East Pacific? Is it similar in latitude to the Atlantic MDR?
For some reason people seem to think of 1995/2005 total numbers as the norm nowadays. For example, 2006 has been discussed as if it were a highly below average year when in reality the 10 named storms and 2 major hurricanes is normal and we were shy only 1 hurricane from average.Basically with a nina in place or neutral across the basin we should have an above average season number wise but certainly not to the levels some people are forcasting.Adrian

Adrian's Weather
i agree with u 23
lol

heres the satellite pic of the low in the middle and south US fairly big low pressure center.
23, your statement is a little misleading.

Over the past 10 years we have averaged 14.5 storms per year. Most of those seasons had 14-16 storms. That being said, the '06 season was fairly slow compared to recent years.

The 02, and 99 seasons had 12 storms and the 97 season only had 8. Pretty much every other year has seen 14+ named storms.
No to mention almost all of the '06 storms were fairly weak.

And with the exception of Bermuda no land mass was even close to threatened by a cane.

Hence, IMHO, the rightful assumption that '06 was a slow year as far as the tropics go.
one thing you can bet for the upcoming season.... even the experts guesstimation will be wrong!

as Dr. Masters has always stated, the margin of error for such seasonal forecasts is extremely high!

bottom line, the best we can do at this point is make an educated guess!

hope I am not wasting time pointing out the obvious! LOL
SJ, don't forget Ernesto was "almost" a cane! ;)

but I guess we aren't playing horseshoes! LOL
Good to see you SW ☺

I agree that is the average 23 was using, but since we are in a time of increased activity I don't think it is really fair to use that 200 year average. I have heard that this increased activity could last as long as 40 to 50 years. Therefore I don't think we should really give to much credibility to the 200 year average until we are out of this cycle. Just my two cent.

Back to work y'all.
Yes,you should use the average for warm AMO periods,which are definitely higher than the long term averages.
I think he means that not every season is going to have 20-30 storms.
Posted By: MisterPerfect at 10:02 AM PDT on May 01, 2007.

What are the chances no Atlantic storms develope this year?


0%
346. SLU
The 1st tropical wave of the year?

THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ IS THE NUMEROUS
MODERATE FROM 2S-5N BETWEEN 25W-35W. THIS AREA HAS BEEN SHOWING
SOME TROPICAL WAVE-LIKE CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE LAST DAY OR
SO...AND MAY BE ADDED AS EITHER A TROUGH OR A WAVE TO THE 1800
UTC MAP.

Lots of thunderstorms rolling off Africa already in the last weeks days .. it could be a bad sign already with the season still 4 weeks off.
Last year's cape verde's was a flop...... this year I think we will have some doosy's!

unfortunately, some of these "could" be "major" storms..... possible bad news for the islands, the gulf, and even (gulp) the east coast! :(
New blog up...
LOL, has there been a year with no tropical development..
Last! ? LOL
hello