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After Tammy, what next?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:42 PM GMT on October 06, 2005

Tropical Storm Tammy came ashore at 7 pm EDT last night near the Florida Georgia border with sustained winds of 50 mph, a storm surge of 1 - 3 feet, and torrential rains. Rainfall amounts across southeast Georgia and coastal sections of
southeast South Carolina have been in the 2 to 7 inch range, with 2 inches or less across interior South Carolina. The highest rainfall totals between 4 and 7 inches have occurred between Folly Beach and Darien. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible today. While numerous instances of urban and small stream flooding have been observed, no major flooding damage has been reported from Tammy.

Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Jacksonville radar.

Tammy is being drawn westward across Georgia by an upper level low over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to dissipate tonight. A cold front is expected to arrive over the East Coast Friday,pulling the remains of Tammy northward up the front, drenching the entire East Coast.

Stan Jr.
The large area of thunderstorms that broke off from Stan yesterday is now a 1005 mb low pressure system over the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows a very disorganized system with the main cloudiness well east and north of the center. Not much upper-level outflow is apparent. Wind shear of about 10 knots from westerly upper-level winds is pushing the convection away from the center, towards the east. Observations from Cuban radar confirm that this a poorly organized system with a few bands of heavy showers over western Cuba.

This system is expected to push northward the next two days, spreading heavy rain and high winds over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula. Development into a tropical depression today is not likely, given the system's current disorganized state. Florida can expect conditions similar to those a tropical depression or weak tropical storm would bring, however, with rain amounts of 3 - 5 inches and high winds. The system will continue to the northeast and drench the areas already dumped on by Tropical Storm Tammy, and the entire East Coast will need to be concerned about flooding problems from this one-two punch.

Figure 2. BAMM and GFDL model tracks for Stan Jr.--the tropical disturbance off of the Yucatan.

The death toll from Hurricane Stan now stands at 162, including 62 deaths in El Salvador, 79 in Guatemala, and 21 in Nicaragua, Mexico, and Honduras. Unconfirmed reports from remote villages in Guatemala indicate that hundred more may be dead. Extensive deforestation in the high mountains where Stan's heavy rains fell contributed significantly to this disaster; the lack of tree cover allowed floodwaters to rampage down the mountainsides unchecked. The remnants of Stan will continue to pour heavy rains on this area today, but should ease off Friday.

Stan, who barely made it to Category 1 strength for a few hours, will likely have his name retired, thanks to this unfolding disaster. This would make the Hurricane Season of 2005 the first season to have five names retired (1955, 1995, and 2004 all had four storm names retired).

Figure 3. Stan's observed rainfall from the NASA TRMM satellite. Rainfall amounts as high as 400 mm (16 inches) were observed along the coast.

Stan III?
The remants of Stan have formed a large area of intense convection near the Mexican coast by Acapulco amd Puerto Vallarta, and appear likely to spin up into a new tropical depression today. This storm will track northwestward and threaten Baja and much of the Mexican Pacific coast.

A tropical disturbance near 8N 43W, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has developed a low level circulation, impressive deep convection, and the beginnings of an upper-level outflow channel to the north. About 10 knots of shear from strong westerly winds is affecting the disturbance, but models indicate that this shear may decrease over the next day or two. The disturbance is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. A more northwestery motion is likely by Saturday, thanks to the steering influence of a large upper-level low pressure system at 25N 60W.

The disturbance is pretty far south for development to occur, and I don't expect a tropical depression here today. Development is more likely Friday or Saturday, when the disturbance will be further from the equator and can take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it develop.

Figure 4. BAMM and GFDL model tracks for the mid-Atlantic disturbance.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Conditions are expected to be unusually conducive for tropical storm formation throughout the Atlantic for the next 10 days, and it is quite likely we'll make it to the end of the alphabet by mid-October. When that happens, we go Greek--Alpha, Beta, and hopefully not much further into the Greek Alphabet!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I guess we're the first. Looks like the blob is nothing to worry about!
Just a bunch of rain for the middle of the state. Tampa dodged another one.
Any comments on the disturbance at about 25N 55W?

Could it develop before the 10N system pushes its way up?
It doesn't look to organized yet. Give it a few days.
The remains of Stan are really blowing up off the coast of Mexico.
Hello everyone! Happy Ramadan. Looks wet there in Florida... I wish I could remember what thats like.
Zap, its an upper low...but under a high pressure...interesting...will something form? I have NO idea....anything is possible...Jeff said that ULL destroy tropical cyclones...but look at what we've had happen from the ULL's moving out the way, we seemingly get little lows that form cause of them...
Zaphod?!? Awesome name man! (Wish I'd thought of it!)
Kansas are you with the Big Red 1?
morning all....nice weather right now, but I am sure we will get the rain later today
That low pressure center at 22N52W looks impressive on the sat-loop. Might be the next headache.
morn 65, ya, we are ok for now, but the clouds sure are hauling butt...
stormy, yes they are. I look for rain this afternoon
No, am not, and have never been with the Big Red One. But I know a lot of guys that are.
Looking like we might not get too much more rain. Sky is getting lighter.
sunny in Fort Lauderdale as well... where's all this rain at? I haven't watered my yard thinking we're going to get a soaking.
well, its raining on the west coast Link and more rain around...so lets enjoy while it lasts!
Morning all!

Slightly overcast here and an occasional sprinkle but nothing significant.

Observed At: Pompano Beach, Florida
Elevation: 16 ft / 5 m
84 F / 29 C
Mostly Cloudy
Heat Index: 93 F / 34 C
Humidity: 76%
Dew Point: 76 F / 24 C
Wind: 12 mph / 18 km/h from the SSE
Pressure: 29.78 in / 1008 hPa
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1800 ft / 548 m
Mostly Cloudy 3500 ft / 1066 m
Atlantic Analysis Link
Stormy, that link is great. Looks like we are dealing with a whole big mess of crap.
Looking at the VL I don't see the system in the NW Car. developing, but I am impressed with the system in the atlantic. Looks like we should have a depression there by tomorrow.
I agree weatherdude, I just hope it doesn't keep coming this way.
What would be the expected long term track for a system forming that far south this time of year?
Seems a bit unusual.
Here's the GFS: Link
Tampa...hard to tell, but with it being so far south, as long as it starts to move a bit north of west it has a chance to get into the carribean, and after that...who knows.
Just glancing at the latest satellite views, it looks like Son of Stan is trying to build again just off the Yucatan. Seems like it builds and then blows NE, and then tries to build again.

Sure seems like it's having trouble wrapping any growth toward the W though.
the first BAMM run was obviously not good... I know it is WAY early,not putting any stock in it, just a comment. Never like to see them taking that pathway...
Hey Billsfan. where did the bam run take it?
Morning ppl!

Hasn't rained here for a couple of hours now, and mercury is rising. Tammy has certainly passed, and she was really ust one bigass thunder storm

Can't believe how much Stan's west coast spinoff, Stan III, is blowing up. It's enormous! Baja Peninsula is in for some serious rain from that bad boy.

Hello All!!
mornin 21
Hi Pensacola!
Hi 21! Still raining in Pensacola?
Gbreeze - A few sprinkles here and there...

Actually she was a thunder storm with no thunder...

TampaBay58, the usual path at this time of year will curve it out to sea as a low pressure system draws it north. However, this storm is so far south that it is going to be drawn north and then head west again. It will probably head north again later on for the same reason, but landfall somewhere is not at all out of the question.

Morning 21, I take it you are working as hard as I am? LOL
Okay, so we make it into the Greek alphabet after the next couple of storms. So what happens if a Greek alphabet storm becomes one of those memorable ones where the name gets retired? Does the Greek letter get retired?
CC.... talking about the disturbance down south, model has it passing through the area of 15-20 & 55/60...Hebert Box.. If you've never heard of it, here's a site..(sorry couldn't make a link) ..


its getting cloudier here...
LOL Palm... Yes, you are correct
Shouldnt the cold front take that Atlantic wave out to sea??
WillJax.. yep.. seems like this year though, all good logic has been thrown out the window...
Herbert box is interesting and scary. I didn't know that.
21, it is too far south to be affected to the degree of being pulled out to sea. It will pull NW for a while, but then will move back to the west
Still overcast here- hardly a breath of wind...
So does anyone think that stan Jr will turn into anything or will it just we a rain maker?

CC.. yeah, pretty interesting isn't it?.. Andrew did not pass through, one of the obvious ones... If I come across anything else, I'll send you a WUG mail..
Yup, exactly billsfan!

At this point it's alls speculation, but I think we'll see Invest94L, soon to be Vince, make it to the Lesser Antilles, pass over the Eastern Greater Antilles (PR / Dom. Rep), and either curve out to sea or strike the Carolinas region.

Stormy- LOL that is sooo on target for me today. Have a major confrontation/meeting coming up this afternoon at work!
Thanks, Billsfan
Weatherdude - Thanks - Also, do you think it could possibly get into the Gulf?
21, no, I don't see that happening at all. Typically this time of the season if the gulf is going to see anything it would have to form in the NW carribean, possibly at the tail end of a front. Anything in the atlantic usually stays out there, or like WIlljax said, possibly hit the carolinas
Oh good.. Well not good for them... But you know what I mean.. =)
Is it ever going to stop raining? We got an inch last night. Plus we have been getting between an inch to two inches a day. I am beginning to think the "sunshine" state doesn't exist any more! I guess I should be happy. It has been sunny for a few hours. I just don't expect it to continue. I hope they name Stan Jr. If I am going to get this much rain, I would prefer at least that it has a name to it. Drats, now it is sunny and pouring rain! My horses are never going to get out! I can't wait for winter!
exactly where is stan,jr...looks like its south of cuba now?
What is up with Stan Jr? Anybody taking guesses at where it is going? Tampa, maybe Appalach area?
Stormy - looks like that to me too
wpb, where are you, I am not getting the rain you are.
yes, it does seem to have broke apart and most of the convection is south of Cuba, lets hope it goes away.
what about another bahama blob again, looking nasty there...and underneath P.R.?
Yikes, gonna be a lot to talk about today....
Look at the IR Channel loop on Skeetobite. It looks pretty healthy right now to me. All the models on Skeetobite have it going in around Tampa or South of Cedar Key.
Just posting This morning's MIA NWS discussion and then I'm out. Since I posted most of the flood watches, this only seemed reasonable. Hi Palmbeacher!

fxus62 kmfl 061426

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
1025 am EDT Thursday Oct 6 2005

Update...12z Miami sounding still showing extremely high
precipitable water...2.49 inches...and surface observation indicate dewpoints are running in the upper 70s to near 80. These conditions are favorable for the development of widespread precipitation. However...lack of well defined focusing mechanism is preventing this from occurring. Low near the western tip of Cuba this morning is still expected to move north and provide better focus for heavy rains tonight into Friday. Will leave Flood Watch up for now but will have to seriously consider lowering it this afternoon if the rains do not materialize.
stormy, looks like some rain is starting to develope south of us
Morning all,

It's fixing to start raining here :( I need to mow my lawn...this is a little strange..we usually get our rain from the west but this is coming from the south-east...I guess Tammy wants to share the love...LOL
Hey - did anyone else notice that Tammy is now stationary?
hello weather junkies, whats the possibility stan jr.blows across florida and reenergizes in the atlantic to cause grief to us in coastal n.c ? ps its a lovely day for ducks here in ocean isle beach.winds 25-30,seas 7-8,rain,rain,and more rain.
65 - mixed clouds and sun right now.....well, lots more clouds than sun... :-)
Can anyone tell me why Tammy would be stationary? What happened to Northeast? Accuweather is even showing forecast track as stationary right now.
gb - poss the trough coming stalled her and then is gonna push her back to sea....
Florida is not the sunshine state today, is it? :-)
Per accuweather 11 am discussion:
Tammy will head in a west or even southwest direction the rest of the day. Well that is too weird! I guess that explains why our weather in the panhandle is so crappy today.
my local weather guy said that we should get some dry air in here come Sunday...I just don't see that front making much difference for us and that ULL in the gulf is just dragging moisture up this way. The ULL is pushing sse...so maybe, but its just so moist out there.
gb, hence it Tammy gets pushed back your way, Ill never see the sun till next week....blah...
Is anyone else here weather sensitive? (example - my teeth are sensitive when the air pressure is changing)
Link Climatology
maybe Vince will form off Cuba and Wilma over in the mid Atlantic, Tammy will swing out into the gulf and merge with Vince and they become one big Alpha...wouldn't that be cool? LOL :-)
ok the ULL off the western tip of cuba is pretty lame convection wise, but due south of the ULL a pretty large area of deep convection has been blooming for a few hours now. My question really is a technical one, there are two ULL's in the Gulf already, is there any possibility for that new blob south of the western tip of cuba? My theroy would be it would be pretty hard fighting the closer of the two low's outflow, etc.
Yeah willJax I am surprised 8N 43W, isn't already classified a TD. It looks like it's spinning pretty good to me.... or at least visible does.
well, cool if it didn't hit anyone :-)
Aghhh! My sinuses if that pressure keeps falling!
65 nice link....I think we are doing a Sept now instead of an Oct...what do you think?
Weather channel says rain 50%. LOL.
stormy, yes it does.
Well all, I am heading to lunch and then to a Spanish class here at work, check back in later this afternoon
I agree stormy... does look like a september pattern.
keri - willjax, think the shear is too high, all convection N of 10...maybe they are waiting for the shear to let up first to make sure it is not destroyed...or as Jeff said above, move higher above the equitar for a better spin on things.
Stormy... LOL... be careful what you say!

Willjax.. that's a good illustration..
watch that blow up of convection south of western Cuba.....could be interesting
Thx for that link Wxdude. Very interesting.
anyone know if any floaters are on any of these blobs yet? I would check but I have dial up and loading my loops takes awhile (BUT THEY ARE STILL WORKING-YES!!!)...if so, could you share the link? Thank you so much! :-)
Just say no to Bahama blobs. Time for 'canes season to end and allow peace and prosperity to reign in the tropics.
SUBTROPIC. Where U been???
Hi palmbeacher, I've been around mostly at night. Been busy during the day, so I haven't had time to stop by here much.
well, it looks like Dade is getting rain, and West Broward, nothing here East..
Wow, the area below Cuba really seems firing up..
Subtropic, I am glad you are ok, thought you were MIA. I am only on during the day. To busy at night.
Raining here Billsfan.
Well, THIS is why Tammy appears to be slowing. She's trying to decide what she'll do: get drawn by the low to the north or get pushed south by the high to her west?

anyone have any new runs on stan Jr
Last night revisited. My local weather guy, who is sitting less than 1/2 mile from here just told me that I am getting torrential rains and a lot of lightning. News to me, so I step outside in case my "thru the window" vision is messed up. Clouds above, a couple of patches of bright blue Florida sky, street and lawn both bone dry.....confirms my belief that we NEED NOAA, NWS, NHCC and need them just as they are. Thank heaven for NOAA and Wunderground!
This what you're looking for stormydee? Link
If the remnants of Stan merge with the remnants of Tammy, what would their offspring be named?
How do you post pictures here on the blog?
Amorris, this is the latest I have found Link
Zap - Stammy
Just kiddin.. lol
21 - left hand side of this blog where it says My Photos, go to it and it will ask to upload photo...just follow directions. :-)
Thanks Stormy
no keri, got that one, but thanks...its the one like that but it zooms in on certain storms and the pic is clearer with the zoom...
noticed my last posting on the prev blog...no one afterwards for awhile; even had a couple of meetings in between... then realized new update!
getting caught up on your postings before next session of meetings....things in Weston, HOT & MUGGY, off and on showers here, nothing serious.

Is "son of stan" breaking up or re organizing somewhere else? large area of rain south of FL is no longer there??
Speaking of photos I got a funny stupid human tricks photo in my collection (I scanned my face)
see example of floater Link but this one is still on Stan. :-)
It looks like the Homecomming parade at the University of Florida starting a noon on Friday might be a washout with that tropical moisture comming up from off the Cuban coast.

That Cape Verde wave East of the lesser Antilles might end up being Vince. The computer models have this thing going due West on day 5.
Good Morning, hows Florida this morning besides wet?
fflattiger, a local meteorologist here in Jax has a thing he calls the "Gaughan Gauge," a scale of 1-10 that describes the weather. According to this guy nearly every day is a 7/10...yet yesterday was "only a 6/10" due to Tammy passing by! What an idiotic statement, it was more like a 2/10!

Oh, and IMHO convection off of Cuba is going to make it to Florida.
Hi. popping in again. It's fine here. A slight breeze and a lot of puffy white clouds but no blobs overhead.
Florida is cloudy. bleh.
It looks like we should have some weather according to the radar but I've got nothin'Link
I'll send you some weather Coconut. It was almost 60 here yesterday. So beautiful and It was 31 degrees this morning burrrrr

Hey guys, I posted a pic of our shop after Ivan... Palmbeach I also sent you an email...lol... I finally figured out how to use my wunder email!
We just had another shower now its gone. Sunshine is back. But for how long??
Thanks 21
check out this siteLink it is kinda fun, you get to spin your own hurricane
Well, at least the wind is starting to pick up. There's a slight breeze. Whoo hoo! Seriously. Thunderstorm? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
Whoa 21, u got some major damage there! Insurance cover it?
That is cool mendomama! Thanks!
Oh yeah we had insurance.. I'll post some more, just a minute...
mendomama - I read Nat'l Geographic, watch out for ducks and chickens, they warn of a new flu bug...ouch!
Wow 21, that is horrible. I am assuming there used to be walls and a ceiling there? Thats just messed up.
cool link mendomama, thanks! :-)
Desinty, I wanna come visit..LOL :-)
hey stormy you can create your own earthquake too.
Hi Destiny! Hope you are well. Stay warm..(that sounds weird)lol
actually, mendo, you can...either build a dam and the pressure of the water on the ground could cause an earthquake (as the Hoover dam had to Las Vegas, small-mod earthquakes ever since they filled Lake Mead). OR, go blow some dynamite in a cave, that might cause one too. :-)
come on Stormy :)
its sprinkling here....
oh, and lots of ground satuation from heavy rains will goe between the rocks in the ground and can cause them to slide and create an earthquake as well...Im checking out that link some more, thanks mendomama :-)
good grief! that blob south of Cuba is STILL expanding. I wonder if this will be the relocation of baby stan.
ya, wayne, waiting for them to update the computer models...should be soon....
Hey yall, I posted another pic..
When do they post the new computer models?
Link you see wind
Link Now look at that tail in the Atlantic...its from the east coast to the windward islands...amazing!

that national geographic site is freaky!! I picked #4...put it in some warm water with high humidity and low pressure and and it spun up a Cat 4 that hit NO, LA... something is wrong with that picture. freaky. "extreme structural damage"...ya think?
WOW 21...amazing pics. I think they are suppose to update them at 8 & 2, but lately, it seems when they feel like it....
Hello everyone. Tropics are active today!
i hav updated my blog
Wow, look at that area blowing up just south of Cuba!!! Do we have something developing here? Give me you thoughts. I know there is low pressure over the Western tip of Cuba is this large area deeping into a tropic system? I am on my way to Islmarada in the Fl Keys to go windsurfing!
It is pouring here now. Wind is kicking. Just about in time for my drive home YIPPEEE
well it looks like fla is in for a soaking again, hopefully the little punch down off cuba won't tear into north fla with much wind or rain, but then given the year we have having in the tropics,,,,,who knows what's next!!
Where you at cowboy?
Hi Everyone. I checked out some of the links. You can't even SEE florida on some of them. messy, messy, messy.....

How are you all doing?
close to I-75 and I-10 crossing gbreeze
Hi coconut, see any orange blobs out there?
No, no orange or yellow today just a big fat gray one right over my house :)

I thought we were in the clear since today has been okay. It's been getting progressively worse but still nothing like they got up north.
Broward co. is covered with rain and it is all moving north. It looks like it is going to keep coming. Coconut, I have the same grey blob too. YUCKY DAY
the whole east coast will be wett and nasty this whole weekend. regardless if gthe blob in the gulf forms there is a southern tropical flow pulling very moist air from the tropics across the whole se us. the ulll and td tyammy are helping to add convergence with that flow so it will continue to be wet and when the low in the gulf gets near florida it will be even worse,. here in va itsa been cloudy for days but we have not had any rain in a montha nd a half. we are forcasted to get 6.00 or more inches from now till monday. .
Question: which is worse, very dry soil that heavy rain sorta bounces off of or wet earth? Given the same amount of rain, which would flood first. If this is a really stupid question, please forgive me :)
coconut, my answer would be ground that is already wet. I am uneducated in this subject, just a guess.
wett soil is worse. evry peaice of land has a water tanle, or amount of water it can hold. wett land will not be able to soak up the water if it is already staurated. so it runs off and floods. dry soil can soak up the water pretty quickly making it not so bad. theres a catch though, if it rains hard enough for long enough it doesn;t matter if the ground was wett or dry. thats flash flooding. most plces have a flood rate of anything over 2-3inches in a hr.
Thanks, guys. I figured as much but still wondered if there was a difference.
yeah u take dry over wett any day. plus like where i live its been so dry the water levels in the creaks and rivers are way down so we won;t have much rover flooding from 6 inces of rain. which is alot of rain in 3-4 days for this part of the country.
so Lefty, what do you think about the stuff out in the atlantic? If you already mentioned it forgive me. If not please explain in english (for me) your thoughts on this one.
winds picking up Palmbeach.. hurry home.
171. wpb05
well, not that wet so far here in west palm today.....gray almost all day. some sun this morning....couple heavy downpours, but didn't last long.........doesn't seem to be equating with a food watch here.....all I want is for it to just cool of a bit and drop this humidity so we can turn off the AC, open the windowns, and start saving on electric here!!!!
well only thing i think will form is the system at 8.9n and 40w or so. think the system in the carribean will possibly be a depression but thats it. other than that it looks quiet out there.

also it has started to rain. first rain in a month and a hlf lol. raining pretty hard too
wp by mopnday the front should be thru florida and cut the humidity. but it will be a wett sticky weekend in florida
wpb, I don't think we can turn the A/C off for a good while! Would be nice though.
ok rain stopped lol. have these passing tropical downpours right now. main bulk of precip is still ways away down in nc
I hear ya, wbp. We haven't been able to open a window in 6 months.
Thanks Lefty.

Coconut, I do believe by the looks of the radar, I will be swimming home.
Really dumb newbie question:

The gulf appears to have a circular flow circulating pretty much all the way around it. Obviously hurricanes form from closed-loop convection in a very localized area.

Is there a storm that can form on the macro-scale, from such large-scale circulation? Or does the entrainment of dryer air (in this case probably from the high over the US) kill off the energy from warm, moist tropical flows from Stan and further south?

Do TD's usually form only in areas with surface lows but no upper level lows? Seems like that would point more to the E. Carribean and E. of Bahama than Cuba-Yucatan currently.

Just trying to learn -- is there "hurricane forecasting 101" blog?

180. wpb05
well, this is my first year here from Cleveland, and we are getting the equivalent of cabin fever from winter up north.....not to mentiuon we appreciate lower electric bills...........if it is in the low 80's with lower humidity. that is ok to open the windows to us....that is typical northern summer weather
Wow, it just got dark and nasty here! I am stuck....
Hey Lefty, how are ya?
Ewww Palmbch, stuck at work (my worst nightmare)..lol
wpb05, I too am from Ohio on the South end though. And I agree with the lower electric bill, but from my 11 year experience here in FL., get used to it. It will only go up.
21, I know, I am ready to go under my desk and cry.
186. wpb05
whoah....dark and darker and darker here..and the rain
Don't say I didn't warn you!!!
Plmbch - LMAO ( I want to do that everyday, even when i'm not stuck, lol.)
Thank you for the warning Coconut, I just didn't act on it fast enough. I will be here atleast another 10 minutes. I lost my chance earlier.
Lefty - If you want to look, I posted a couple of post Ivan damage pics of our shop..
88, CNN said it was classified as TD21 yesterday... I believe teh 2 AM (Wednesday) intermediate advisory said TD21. I'd like to know for sure too.
You are making my boss look at me funny 21, I can't laugh like that when I am sitting here by myself!!
Hot and sunny up here (basically everything that Florida should be and Upstate, NY shouldn't)
are there any new modle runs on stan Jr?
Looking at the Cuba Radar, you can see the low level circulation center of Stan. Jr. passing over the Western tip of Cuba. It seems to be much further south than depicted in the model runs, perhaps favoring a center toward that enormous mound of convection to the south of Cuba.

I like it Wiljax. I was getting rather tired of the "blob" word. "mound" is more interesting... :)
Have a good night all, Getting my rain gear on and heading home. Tah Tah For Now.
198. wpb05
ok...making up for lack of rain....dog crossing his legs really needing to go outside...not happening anytime soon
Yes! I was going to ask if there are any new model runs out on Stan's offspring. :-)
lmao wpb.

That is exactly why I don't have a dog!
Bye Palmbeacher....
Bye Palmbeach, swim safely!
wpb & cococreek, and here I have 4!!! Sometimes the littlest ones go under the dining table...
I am currently at work watching our tax dollars at work. They are putting in new sewer lines (have been on this project for at least four months, digging up the same exact area now for the 3rd time!) ..point is this area is prone to severe flooding.. they have holes everywhere and huge mountains of dirt all over, we get torrential downpours what a mess this place will be! (Oakland Park for those of you familiar with the area)
205. wpb05
sounds like a good weekend to stay inside and watch the Buckeyes beat Penn St...........oh yeah, its our 1 year anniversary Sunday too.....better Sunday than Saturday.lol
Yes CoconutCreek, please do not get lost in my gianormous vocabulary. I plan to whip out "mass" and "wad" in the near future.

It also appears that Atlantic disturbance is making a decent turn to the NW.
anyone look at SoFL radar recently? It's raining over metro areas, not Glades and all around but not on Lake Okeechobee... THAT looks like a donut with blue donut hole...
I can't wait :)
dang, billsfan, watching THAT is like watching grass grow and just about as productive!!! LOL
210. wpb05
keep brining the rain....our water quality has been great lately...that water earlier this summer from the faucet ws horrible due to lack of surface water...don't need the water filter right now which is great
wpb, better plan on some snuggle time WITHOUT football then ::snicker::
212. wpb05
yeah, thats what sunday is for......Browns absolutely suck, and don't get their games down here anyways, and the NFL is blah to me.....so sunday is open
OMG!!! You are too funny... make sure your priorities stay on this blog and don't get out in the matrimonial ether
214. wpb05
oh no, my wife is great......i christened her with the bucks last year, and she is a huge fan.......all i know is my anniversary gift is a 80 dollar purchase from the OSU team shop....hehehehe
:> Lurker Here <:

I was thinking that Cgables! Can you imagine wpb...if your wife was blogging from her job and she saw that? OOOOH! You be in for it! :O)
Hi Booty! (just wanted to say that :))
Hey Coco and to everyone else here.
219. wpb05

AS much as I still hope the bucks make it to Pasadena for the NC, I wouldn't mind them playing down in Miami in the Orange Bowl...although early rumors have them playing ND in Tempe........oh dang, yet another OSU schooling of the Irish
What does everyone think of the new model runs? Too early to tell?
Mandy: probably too early to tell but I don't like how they look like fingers reaching out to the coast.
WilJax, CC ... did you happen to notice that the Figure 4 that Jeff has for our little friend around 9 degrees has been updated? WilJax.. does it look like three models have it going through Heberts' Box?
CGables... you know how it is down here, they can't do anything right the first time... project might be done on time and within budget! .. this (project) has become a joke around the office.
Good LEEDS..

Whoops sorry wrong football (LOL)
225. wpb05

My thought are that the most we will see out of the system by Cuba is a TD......which will move through the middle of florida as a simple low.......the area in the atlantic I believe may be a TS, but will curve out to sea
CC... probably have a day full of rain tomorrow.. public schools are off ... full day of hearing, "but there's NOTHING to do"
It looks that Stan Blob is having more favorable shear develop as we speak. I'm also wundering if the upper-level anticyclone hovering off of South Florida may eventually move in to help the outflow of Stan Jr., regardless of what he becomes.
Am I missing something or does it look like the next disturbance in the Atlantic will hit the United States if it doesn't slip between the high pressures in the Atlantic? Would this be the major hurricane that has a 20% chance of hitting the U.S. according to Dr. Gray?
and my old favorite, "I'mmmm Booooored"
I didn't see that anyone had answered your questions, but you may get some of your answers from the NOAA FAQ site Link
It gives the basics, but also gets into some much deeper explanation of tropical forecasting and such.
BTW, Orion! Nice family! Cute daughter!
wpb: from your fingers to God's ears. :-)
billsfan - teachers' work day there too, huh?

Same here, I vague remenber a joke about being I'm bored as a pickup line or was it I'm drunk (LOL)
Glad the kids aren't sitting around all day saying that!

Thanks did you see my stupid human tricks pic?
wpb, I am crossing all my fingers and toes for a win against Penn this weekend. The Bucks have three strikes against them, it's an away game to be played in the evening after a by weekend, even though they are favored to win, but not by much.
238. phelp
the wave in the atlantic isn't looking as good now as it was 12 hours ago


This is about our earlier chat on the alligator and the python... if you haven't embraced the horror yet...
CC... yep, with the holiday Tues, early release today and teachers work day tomorrow... 2 1/2 days off this week, plus they are off next Thursday as well! Geez... enough already...
According to the track reported, Tammy crossed north of my area (Valdosta, GA) while moving east to west. Even though it was within 35 to 40 miles, we didn't see any rain or winds. Seems like all the wind and rain was far north and east of the center. Last year Tropical Storm Bonnie passed about 25 miles to our south and not a single breeze was felt here. Frances and Jeanne were quite a different story last year.
Bills: hmmmm. my daughter is 4 so she's in a preschool. They follow the broward schedule. I suppose I should really check and see if she has school tomorrow before I drop her off ;)
orion, LOL, No, not if it isn't right there...
Wow billsfan, definitely more toward Hebert's box than before! Will be interesting to see if the "Hebert's correlation" pans out for this particular storm.

And I'm glad to see the models reflected my belief that CubaBlob's center had moved further south than predicted. Yessssss!
Mandy, y'day we were talking about how that belongs in the new TV series, Invasion!!! Between hurricanes and aliens it would fit right in there!
To refresh: Hebert's box was where a storm had to be to hit anywhere in florida or just S. Florida?
FYI... teachers don't get paid for our two weeks at Christmas and our week at spring break. They hold our pay (they pay us for nine days every ten days and put the extra day in escrow that the school district earns interest off of) so we still get a pay check for those weeks. We're not paid during the summer either, and our benefits stink!! The pay for our basic HMO, but add one child and you pay 192 every two weeks. Sorry not weather related. Just had to let it out! lol
i agree cgables... geez. Shame the gator couldn't make a break for it.
Hey does anyone think that that wave in the Atlantic could sneak in the Gulf? Earlier someone (I forgot who) told me they though it would be more likely to hit the east coast...
Tampa, best friend is elem music teacher down here. I hear you. She got so mad a few years back with all the corruption she even quit the union when Tornillo got caught with his hand in the cookie jar BIG time. Can't remember if she's gone back or not.
Tampa: I recall reading something a long time ago where they looked at teacher's salaries historically. They reported that when this country first started, the pay differential b/w teachers and lawyers was not very different. Over time, however, that changed. I suppose it speaks to what is considered more valuable. So sad.
hello again everyone
I'm lucky I have an extra gig teaching online. It helps pay the bills! Looks like weather wise we are in the clear here in Tampa. Thank goodness!
one theory is that the gator was already dead when python swallowed it and it started to bloat inside snake and the front claws caught it good from inside as well as then swelling up too much for it. Then something else came along and opportunistically ate the python's head.
Only in SOUTH FLORIDA!!! Honestly, you couldn't MAKE UP these stories... just read the danged headlines...
and talk about nasty, they didn't dare airlift the mess out of there, figure it'd explode on the way to wherever and be one nasty mess so they necropsied on site...
Hey weatherdude =)
i have up date my blog so take a look

What makes me nervous is that we already have to worry about the stray alligator getting lose in neighborhoods and chowing down on pets and small children. We just had one in my neighborhood. But NOW we have to worry about these snakes too! Not to mention, those big iguana things you are starting to see everywhere (not the little geckos).
on that gross note ::VBG:: gotta go to a meeting.
Hi and bye 65.
See you all later!

Read your email
To clarify: my neighborhood alligator (named Mr. Sunshine b/c it just lounged on driveways) did NOT eat any pets or small children. However, one of those big old lizards did get in a fight with a squirrel and while falling out of the tree almost landed on my sister's head!
Later people..

Say safe and Watch the skies..
coconut- If you've ever had the pleasure of visiting Boca Grande, FL on the west coast, those big iguanas are loose every where. They sit on the docks, rooftops, etc... just sunning away. Creepy!
cTampa: can't say I've had to pleasure. I only came to notice them this year. First it was one every once in awhile crossing the street. Then it was falling from the sky on my sis (I like that though). They had something on the news recently about it. It sounds like they have become more established on your side of the state.