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After Iowa Tornadoes, Threat of Severe Lakeshore Flooding in Michigan

By: Bob Henson 4:42 PM GMT on November 12, 2015

The intense midlatitude storm that swept across the Great Plains on Wednesday, dropping several tornadoes across central Iowa, may produce the worst flooding in decades along the southeast shores of Lake Michigan on Thursday. The powerful surface low at the heart of the storm is being energized by a pocket of extremely strong winds at upper levels. The radiosonde launched at 6:00 pm EDT Wednesday night from the Springfield, Missouri, office of the National Weather Service sampled west-southwest winds raging at 155 knots (178 mph) near the 300-mb level, or about 30,000 feet above ground level. See the YouTube clip at bottom for a taste of what it was like to launch this radiosonde in surface winds gusting to 40-50 mph.


Figure 1. WunderMap composite radar display from 0412Z Thursday, November 12, 2015 (10:12 pm CST Wednesday), as the line of thunderstorms that swept across Iowa earlier in the day reached the Chicago area. Other scattered storms extend along the front all the way to Texas.


Many towns and cities across the Midwest experienced tree damage and scattered power outages on Wednesday due to widespread high winds. As a narrow ribbon of unstable air flowed north ahead of the surface low and associated front, a crop of small supercells emerged across south central Iowa, leading to a mini-outbreak of tornadoes between about 2:00 and 5:00 pm on Wednesday afternoon. A total of 10 tornado reports were received by the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC). No major destruction was reported, but a few homes and industrial buildings suffered serious damage. This weather.com story provides a detailed roundup of the tornado and multi-state high-wind damage from Wednesday and early Thursday. As noted by the Weather Channel’s Stu Ostro, the coverage of high wind reports across Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois qualifies the event as a serial derecho, one of two main types of derechoes.

Perhaps the closest call of the day on Wednesday was a tornado that developed near the Des Moines International Airport around 4:30 pm. The twister was visible to staff at the nearby NWS office, as noted on a special observation that you’ll find in the hourly weather history section of the WU daily almanac.

Mid-autumn tornadoes in Iowa are rare but not unprecedented: the state’s largest November outbreak on record produced 12 tornadoes on November 12, 2005, including an F3 twister that killed one person and injured several others. Another of that day’s tornadoes, an F2 on the outskirts of Ames, forced the evacuation of fans streaming into the Iowa State University stadium for an football game. (The ISU mascot is, of course, the Cyclones).


Figure 2. Damage from Wednesday's storms to a home south of Melrose in Monroe County, Iowa. Image credit: Norm Vote/KCCI, via NWS/Des Moines.

High winds, high lake levels team up for flood risk
Strong winds were spreading across the Great Lakes region on Thursday, already gusting to 55 mph in parts of southwest Michigan. The winds are paving the way for an unusually strong episode of coastal flooding along the east shore of Lake Michigan. The storm has prompted the first lakeshore flood warning from the NWS Grand Rapids office since the 1990s. On top of an expected 6-to-12-inch storm surge, waves could peak as high as 16 feet, with the largest waves expected in the Holland/Saugatuck area of southwest Michigan. Beach and dune erosion may be “severe,” warns the NWS. Further east, the high winds are expected to produce a "seiche" that pushes up water levels up on the east end of Lake Erie by several feet; see Lee Grenci's WU blog post for details

Thursday’s storm is indeed a strong one--high wind warnings are in effect from southern Michigan and northern Indiana all the way to western New York, for gusts as high as 60 mph--but there is another factor at work. This year, Lake Michigan and the other Great Lakes are seeing water levels significantly above the long-term average for the first time in the 21st century. After hitting a record-low level in January 2013, the height of Lakes Michigan and Huron (considered a single unit by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) has risen more than three feet. The reason: Relatively wet, cool conditions have predominated over the region during the last two years, sending more streamflow into the lakes as well as cutting down on the loss of lakewater through evaporation. Extensive ice cover during the winter of 2013-14 also helped cut back on evaporation rates. In contrast, between 1999 and 2013, the balance was tilted toward warmer air and water temperatures, less ice cover, and greater evaporation. The lakes are prone to large multidecadal variations in water height.

Along with these factors, the amount of water drawn from the Great Lakes for industry, agriculture, and consumer use is now on the decline, thanks in large part to the Great Lakes Compact, a U.S.-Canada agreement that went into effect in 2008. Withdrawal of Great Lakes water by the United States has been dropping by about 4 percent a year since 2007.

The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory is hosting a press conference on November 19 exploring the potential impacts of El Niño on Great Lakes water levels. Slides will be posted on the GLERL website after the event.

The howling winds across the Great Lakes on Thursday and Friday will also lead to some lake-effect precipitation, with rain and snow showers in New York and up to 7” of snow across parts of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. In his latest post, WU blogger Steve Gregory weighs in on the recurrently storm pattern expected to persist over the contiguous U.S. for the next week or two. NOAA/SPC is already highlighting the possibility of severe weather, including tornadoes, from Texas into Louisiana next Monday and Tuesday.

Bob Henson


Figure 3. Observed (blue dots) and projected (red rectangles) surface water elevation for Lakes Michigan and Huron from 1996 to 2016. Image credit: NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.


111115164603.jpg
111115164603.jpg
Double rainbow in Toledo, Iowa after the thunderstorm

Winter Weather Tornado Severe Weather Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Mr. Henson, what do you think the probability of another TS next week.

sincerely
yours truly
yur buddie
(vis0 asking an absentees question for)
Grothar
The photo from Bellevue, Nebraska is a fake. I live in Omaha, Nebraska and I can tell you for sure that all of the trees here do not still have leaves on them and even if they did they wouldn't be green. I would say that about 10 percent of the trees here even still have leaves and they are all turning colors.
When the gales of November came early'
Excellent summary Mr. Henson of the issues yesterday and again today for the Great Lakes;
re-posting the updated flood warning from 11:15 am from the Grand Rapids NWS office:

LAKESHORE HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1115 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071-130015-
/O.CON.KGRR.LS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-151113T1000Z/
MASON-OCEANA-MUSKEGON-OTTAWA-ALLEGAN-VAN BUREN-
1115 AM EST THU NOV 12 2015

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH
BECOMING WEST. STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF WHITEHALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FEET.

* IMPACTS...SEVERE BEACH AND DUNE EROSION EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WATER WILL BE PUSHED MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN NORMAL
DUE TO THE LONG DURATION OF STRONG WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT ALONG THE LAKE. RESIDENTS ON OR NEAR THE SHORE IN THE
WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.








College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

No severe warnings in past 3 hours


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago
And the current look and jet pattern again.  You can see the virtual conveyor look as the result of the Michigan low pushing East over the Great Lakes and the extra-tropical remnants of Kate heading across the North Atlantic "pulling" from the opposite counter-clockwise back end.  Probably a contributing factor to the wind speeds as well as the whole area moves off to the NE. 






Quoting 2. Wthrman:

The photo from Bellevue, Nebraska is a fake. I live in Omaha, Nebraska and I can tell you for sure that all of the trees here do not still have leaves on them and even if they did they wouldn't be green. I would say that about 10 percent of the trees here even still have leaves and they are all turning colors.
I wondered about that when I saw it. Looks like mid-summer, not November.
Quoting 2. Wthrman:

The photo from Bellevue, Nebraska is a fake. I live in Omaha, Nebraska and I can tell you for sure that all of the trees here do not still have leaves on them and even if they did they wouldn't be green. I would say that about 10 percent of the trees here even still have leaves and they are all turning colors.

I thought that too. Fall color is into the deep South now. The trees and shrubs in the picture are not evergreens.

Weather extremes continue...
Thanks for the Update Mr. Henson,
Good afternoon all. So first we lose the sidebar showing who's posting and where and now we lose the plus button to let us know who's dropped by here... Bummer!

Anyway, another beautiful day in the Keys. It still feels like Summer here though with highs around 90 and lows around 80.
Re several recent comments, we're looking into the Figure 2 photo. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.
Thanks Mr. Henson and +1 on this blog
Quoting 2. Wthrman:

The photo from Bellevue, Nebraska is a fake. I live in Omaha, Nebraska and I can tell you for sure that all of the trees here do not still have leaves on them and even if they did they wouldn't be green. I would say that about 10 percent of the trees here even still have leaves and they are all turning colors.


I wondered about this also. Here in DC metro, an area milder than NE, we're past peak color and maybe 70% of our leaves are down (this is a week early for here.. warm weather in Nov accelerated leaf death and drop as KEEP told me it would]
thanks dok henson!
Photoshop is a great tool so you have to be careful on what you are actually looking at; particularly when it comes to weather/nature shots and alleged UFOs.................................Not suggesting that this submission was photoshopped and leaving the comments to the Bloggers from those parts. Would be nice to have the one who posted respond on here..............They could be in a "green pocket" with those trees between the buildings.
The photo is a wunderphoto uploaded by a wu member.

If it proves out to be a substituted one rather than from yesterday's event, they are responsible for mislabeling it.

If by intent or accident....that is on them alone.

The photo isn't photoshopped though.

We have very good observers here that is a fact .

Quoting 13. georgevandenberghe:



I wondered about this also. Here in DC metro, an area milder than NE, we're past peak color and maybe 70% of our leaves are down (this is a week early for here.. warm weather in Nov accelerated leaf death and drop as KEEP told me it would]

I say 95 percent of leaves are down here with just a few stragglers left to fall likely this afternoon in the gusty winds that are yet to arrive will finish the job

then snow can come trees are ready
good read all the same bob thanks
Quoting 2. Wthrman:

The photo from Bellevue, Nebraska is a fake. I live in Omaha, Nebraska and I can tell you for sure that all of the trees here do not still have leaves on them and even if they did they wouldn't be green. I would say that about 10 percent of the trees here even still have leaves and they are all turning colors.
This is a snapshot of a live webcam image from a wunderground user in Bellevue:



Looks green to me...
Quoting 22. tampabaymatt:


roping out front normally a sign of occlusion and the front will transition into a warm front advancing back north

This thing is still going, I wonder if it can do anything.
"(The ISU mascot is, of course, the Cyclones)", of course..
Somewhat unusual pattern of weekly rainy systems. Usual Fall pattern is biweekly.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
941 AM PST THU NOV 12 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:47 AM PST THURSDAY...NICE START TO
THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY WITH MORNING SUNSHINE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD SHOW UP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FAIRLY POTENT FRONT THAT IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH
BAY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING WITH RAIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SONOMA COUNTY. 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM BOTH BRING PRECIP INTO THE
NORTH BAY BETWEEN 03Z-09Z SUNDAY (SATURDAY NIGHT). FRONT LOOKS TO
BE QUICK MOVING WITH STEADY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE GREATER BAY AREA PERHAPS BY 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT
A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT WITH PROJECTED
TOTALS AVERAGING AROUND 0.50 FROM THE BAY AREA NORTHWARD WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE SOUTH BAY AND MONTEREY BAY REGION.

Very unusual possible tropical development south of the Equator and near the dateline. Also unusually low latitude.
Doesn't look like much now, does it?

Quoting 28. Grothar:




I had blob for lunch🌯🍩🍿🍦🍻🍻
Quoting 15. weathermanwannabe:

Photoshop is a great tool so you have to be careful on what you are actually looking at; particularly when it comes to weather/nature shots and alleged UFOs.................................Not suggesting that this submission was photoshopped and leaving the comments to the Bloggers from those parts. Would be nice to have the one who posted respond on here..............They could be in a "green pocket" with those trees between the buildings.
I don't think it was photoshopped. I suspect it was a storm that came through in the summer that was just submitted as happening yesterday. I was in Ohio just last week. Trust me, there are no "green pockets" anywhere north of the Mason-Dixon line. :-)
Quoting 28. Grothar:




Looks like diurnal convection.
Quoting 30. Grothar:

Doesn't look like much now, does it?




Does that qualify as a mini blob? :)
Interesting area of broad troughing in the western Caribbean today caused by two tropical waves. The first is over Central America and the second is further south in the Caribbean. That's adding enough instability for convection from the Gulf of Panama to the Gulf of Honduras. The convection so far has been mostly diurnal and hugging the coastlines, but the second wave will interact with the area of disturbed weather tomorrow. If we get enough persistent convection it's possible that a low will form in the area. What happens after that is still open to question.

The front is coming through dry here, with just some high clouds. Up to 76 as the downslope winds from the low in the Great Lakes creates a pretty good pressure gradient. The winds have been gusting to to 20 mph so far today. Colder air arrives late tonight. Depending on what the winds do, we should get down to the mid to high 30's Friday and Saturday night. Even though this is a pretty strong front, it doesn't look like the cooler air will make it all the way to south Florida. It will be a few degrees cooler but still well above normal for mid-November.

Quoting 34. SouthCentralTx:



Does that qualify as a mini blob? :)


amoebic psychogenesistic swirl.
Quoting 28. Grothar:





Quoting 37. Patrap:








Good eyes for an old man!
Quoting 21. Neapolitan:

This is a snapshot of a live webcam image from a wunderground user in Bellevue:



Looks green to me...




This picture you posted is actually helping prove my comment. The trees in your picture are mostly bare and the ones that aren't have lots of yellow leaves. The picture that was posted on here had trees with all of the leaves still on them and they were ALL green. I never suggested that the picture wasn't real because the grass was green. The grass stays green until it gets very cold in December.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
948 AM PST THU NOV 12 2015

...THE START OF THE UPCOMING RAINY
PERIOD HAS BEGUN AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WASHINGTON AND NORTH
OREGON COASTS. SO FAR RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT BUT WILL BE
INCREASING TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE NEAR 130W APPROACHES. THE MOISTURE
FEED IS FOCUSED MORE TOWARD OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THIS RIBBON OF 1.2 TO
1.4 INCH PW AIR STRETCHES BACK TOWARD GUAM. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
NOTABLE BUT NOT RIDICULOUSLY IMPRESSIVE. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PART IS
THAT LENGTH OF THE FETCH.

Wow. To Guam. Not a PIneapple Connection. A Coconut Connection. El Nino ramping up.
real weather picture



not so real weather picture

Quoting 39. Wthrman:




This picture you posted is actually helping prove my comment. The trees in your picture are mostly bare and the ones that aren't have lots of yellow leaves. The picture that was posted on here had trees with all of the leaves still on them and they were ALL green. I never suggested that the picture wasn't real because the grass was green. The grass stays green until it gets very cold in December.


LOL, have you really even looked at this photo you're huffing about?
i see nearly bare deciduous trees, lush evergreens, and quite a few leaves on the ground!
..and up here in MN i've had oaks full with leaves until the backside of this storm hit, and the kid across the street was mowing a lawn 3 days ago.
not many points for observation, 2/5 i grade ya ;)
Quoting 42. Minnemike:



LOL, have you really even looked at this photo you're huffing about?
i see nearly bare deciduous trees, lush evergreens, and quite a few leaves on the ground!
..and up here in MN i've had oaks full with leaves until the backside of this storm hit, and the kid across the street was mowing a lawn 3 days ago.
not many points for observation, 2/5 i grade ya ;)


Sorry Mike but your late to the party. They've replaced the original figure 2 photo that was in question.
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Strong and gusty winds expected today and tonight.

Strong southwesterly winds have developed this morning in Southwestern Ontario as expected, with a gust of 85 km/h reported at Windsor Airport at 9.00 AM, and a gust of 81 km/h at Port Colborne at 10 AM just after a strong cold front blasted through.

This cold front will race east across the remainder of Southwestern Ontario by early afternoon, with strong southwesterly winds gusting to 80 km/h expected in many places. The cold front and strong southwesterly winds will arrive over areas east of Toronto later this afternoon.

A few higher gusts near 85 km/h are quite possible.

Even stronger winds with frequent gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are expected near Eastern Lake Erie and in the Picton and Sandbanks area near Eastern Lake Ontario where wind warnings are in effect.

These strong winds will persist through this afternoon and evening before slowly starting to diminish somewhat later tonight.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.
Quoting 43. ChillinInTheKeys:



Sorry Mike but your late to the party. They've replaced the original figure 2 photo that was in question.

well that makes a Lot more sense than what i thought the person was arguing. i never saw that pic, apologies
A conversion example related to the km speeds noted for Ontario under the metric system (for reference purposes):  58 mph = (93 km/h)
just need it to drift north a bit:)
seen a few of these the last few weeks...sadly they rain themselves out over the ocean
Quoting 35. sar2401:

Interesting area of broad troughing in the western Caribbean today caused by two tropical waves. The first is over Central America and the second is further south in the Caribbean. That's adding enough instability for convection from the Gulf of Panama to the Gulf of Honduras. The convection so far has been mostly diurnal and hugging the coastlines, but the second wave will interact with the area of disturbed weather tomorrow. If we get enough persistent convection it's possible that a low will form in the area. What happens after that is still open to question.

The front is coming through dry here, with just some high clouds. Up to 76 as the downslope winds from the low in the Great Lakes creates a pretty good pressure gradient. The winds have been gusting to to 20 mph so far today. Colder air arrives late tonight. Depending on what the winds do, we should get down to the mid to high 30's Friday and Saturday night. Even though this is a pretty strong front, it doesn't look like the cooler air will make it all the way to south Florida. It will be a few degrees cooler but still well above normal for mid-November.


Hey Mike, I thought you were in Altadena?
Wow! Double rainbow and a weather balloon release. We're kinda hitting the bottom of the bucket for Wx news it seems. J/K
Quoting 21. Neapolitan:

This is a snapshot of a live webcam image from a wunderground user in Bellevue:



Looks green to me...



You mean the grass is green right? The trees are pretty much bare and the leaves left are hardly green.
Quoting 28. Grothar:




That could be a sneaker down the road Gro. November is notorious for a Tropical system to form during El-Nino years.
Quoting 29. BayFog:

Very unusual possible tropical development south of the Equator and near the dateline. Also unusually low latitude.



Next name is Tuni
90's might make a come back again next week. Good God we can't catch a break and the El-Nino southern jet is absent here across C & S FL. Heat continues folks.

Eric Blake Retweeted
Dan Leonard ‏@DanLeonard_wx 2h2 hours ago
Monster SE ridge next week: pseudo summer east coast, pure summer FL. #florida #torch
Temps 10 to 15 degrees above average next week across FL. That means upper 80's to low 90's again.
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Strong and gusty winds expected tonight into Friday.

Strong southwesterly winds have developed as expected across Southern Ontario with frequent gusts of 70 to 80 km/h in many areas in the wake of a strong cold front that is currently moving through Eastern Ontario.

The cold front and strong winds will reach the Trenton to Kingston areas by this evening.

A few higher gusts near 85 km/h are quite possible.

Even stronger winds with frequent gusts of 90 to 110 km/h are expected near Eastern Lake Erie and in the Picton and Sandbanks area near Eastern Lake Ontario where wind warnings are in effect.

These strong winds will persist through this afternoon and evening before slowly starting to diminish somewhat later tonight or Friday morning.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.
Follow:ATOM feedATOM
Quoting 45. Minnemike:


well that makes a Lot more sense than what i thought the person was arguing. i never saw that pic, apologies


This is the original photo which was posted in figure 2 and as ChillinInTheKeys noted, has since been replaced.

Our only hope in FL to cause a break in this ridge over FL is for something Tropical to come up from the South. If that can happen the western side of this heat ridge over FL will then erode. I just can't believe that I am seeing 92 to even 94 one the Euro next week for FL. This is just ridiculous already.

Quoting 56. StAugustineFL:



This is the original photo which was posted in figure 2 and as ChillinInTheKeys noted, has since been replaced.


just looking at it seems it would be late june early july time frame leaves are a lush green indicative of early summer conditions
we're home!! (MN)
moved back late last year, beard is growing out again
Quoting 48. PedleyCA:

Hey Mike, I thought you were in Altadena?
Storm Abigail: Schools to be closed and ferries cancelled
BBC, 33 minutes ago
Every school in the Western Isles and Shetland will be closed to pupils on Friday because of the expected arrival of Storm Abigail.
Nearly 60 primary and secondary schools will be affected.
Ferries on the Clyde and Hebrides network have been disrupted already by bad weather with more than half of the services on the 25 routes cancelled. [snip]
By early evening, the strongest gust recorded by the Met Office was 75mph, on South Uist. ...



Satellite image of Storm Abigail approaching Scotland. University of Dundee/NEODAAS (source: the article above).

Weather reporter Andreas Stidl (an Austrian with the proper idiom) from German weather site "wetteronline" is currently at the west coast of Ireland to cover "Abigail"/"Frank". You may identify the word "graupel" in his recent report, lol:

Quoting 57. StormTrackerScott:

Our only hope in FL to cause a break in this ridge over FL is for something Tropical to come up from the South. If that can happen the western side of this heat ridge over FL will then erode. I just can't believe that I am seeing 92 to even 94 one the Euro next week for FL. This is just ridiculous already.


I haven't checked the forecast for central FL but up here in my little parcel of the state we'll be enjoying 2-3 days of temps in the low to mid 70's with lows in the low to mid 50's which is near normal. It warms to 80 the middle of next week.
Evening all ... taking a break in a busy day to peek at the wx .... today was another sweltering one over the NW Bahamas .....

Hope we don't see too much damage from the Lakes system .... it's a little early in the season for heavy damage reports ....
Quoting 16. Patrap:

The photo is a wunderphoto uploaded by a wu member.

If it proves out to be a substituted one rather than from yesterday's event, they are responsible for mislabeling it.

If by intent or accident....that is on them alone.

The photo isn't photoshopped though.

We have very good observers here that is a fact .


Do know if your photo is manipulated you have to ID it as such, or AFAIK it doesn't get approved.
Quoting 45. Minnemike:


well that makes a Lot more sense than what i thought the person was arguing. i never saw that pic, apologies
No worries. Some of us just believe that shouting "FAKE!" might not be the best way to call attention to a possibly/probably mislabeled image, especially when, as the screen capture in #21 shows, trees in the area still exhibit some summer foliage. 'Fake' implies a forgery--that is, an intentional attempt to deceive, often with Photoshop or other image manipulation software. This clearly wasn't that.
Quoting 54. StormTrackerScott:

Temps 10 to 15 degrees above average next week across FL. That means upper 80's to low 90's again.
It's been ridiculous here. I got a headache from the oppressive heat today .... one doesn't expect to have "feels like" temps over 90 in November ..... :o/

Quoting 56. StAugustineFL:



This is the original photo which was posted in figure 2 and as ChillinInTheKeys noted, has since been replaced.


Okay, I see what u guys mean .... looks like somebody had some bad weather and remembered at that point to post their other bad wx pics ..... [smh]

Quoting 65. BahaHurican:

Do know if your photo is manipulated you have to ID it as such, or AFAIK it doesn't get approved.
I've had non-manipulated images not approved because the mod thought they had been digitally jiggered with, when that wasn't the case. Here are three of mine that didn't make it:







(The top one was at Naples beach the day Hurricane Ivan moved westward across Florida on its second go-round; the second and third were taken in Ojai, California.)
Latest Yemen update (pdf) with a good meteorological map of the track of both cyclones:

Yemen: Cyclones Chapala and Megh, Flash Update 9 | , 12 November 2015

I have to confess I'm impressed by those reports from OCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs). Better to go there for informations from remote places (from a western point of view) than trying to decipher Arabian tweets (or what language else) ;-). Site to bookmark.
Quoting 69. barbamz:

Latest Yemen update (pdf) with a good meteorological map of the track of both cyclones:

Yemen: Cyclones Chapala and Megh, Flash Update 9 | , 12 November 2015

I have to confess I'm impressed by those reports from OCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs). Better to go there for informations from remote places (from a western point of view) than trying to decipher Arabian tweets (or what language else) ;-). Site to bookmark.
Thanks, barba .... sometimes it's difficult to get news from this part of the world that's not political ....

Slide of north Greenland glacier quickens, raising sea levels
Source: Reuters - Thu, 12 Nov 2015 19:00 GMT
OSLO, Nov 12 (Reuters) - A glacier in northeast Greenland with enough ice to raise world ocean levels by 50 cms (20 inches) has begun to slide faster toward the sea, extending ice losses to all corners of the vast remote island, a study showed on Thursday.
Warmer water temperatures meant the end of the Zachariae Isstrom glacier floated free from a ridge of bedrock below sea level on which it had rested until 2012, according to the U.S. study reported in the journal Science.
Without that natural brake, the glacier in the cold north was now sliding quicker and more icebergs were snapping off, adding a net five billion tonnes of ice a year to the oceans, according to the study based on satellite and aerial surveys.
"Similar changes - even larger - are under way in the south," Jeremie Mouginot, lead author of the study at the University of California, Irvine (UCI), told Reuters in an e-mail.
Greenland contains enough ice to raise world sea levels by about 6 metres (20 feet) if it ever all melted in a slow-motion collapse that could take thousands of years. ...
Quoting 68. Neapolitan:

I've had non-manipulated images not approved because the mod thought they had been digitally jiggered with, when that wasn't the case. Here are three of mine that didn't make it:







(The top one was at Naples beach the day Hurricane Ivan moved westward across Florida on its second go-round; the second and third were taken in Ojai, California.)
All good shots .... I especially like the last one with the palm .....
Well, I'm out for the next while ... depending on what time my meeting ends, I may or may not check in when I get home .... have a good one !
Quoting 70. BahaHurican:

Thanks, barba .... sometimes it's difficult to get news from this part of the world that's not political ....

Sure, Baha. I've learned A LOT the last days about Yemen, geographically and politically as well. As I got a better knowledge of the Bahamas when Joaquin hit earlier ;-) Hope the most affected islands of the Bahamas do recover. Haven't checked it, I must confess.
Quoting 57. StormTrackerScott:

Our only hope in FL to cause a break in this ridge over FL is for something Tropical to come up from the South. If that can happen the western side of this heat ridge over FL will then erode. I just can't believe that I am seeing 92 to even 94 one the Euro next week for FL. This is just ridiculous already.




It is truly remarkable how hot the Peninsula and NW Caribbean have been this month. Heat has not been as extreme (relative to normal) here in the Mid Atlantic, in particular first 10 days of Nov 1975 were warmer but I've been watching for something to bring it up here. (not 90s, an anlog here would be mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid to upper
50s for a solid week) 90F has never been recorded here Nov-Feb. Only months without an 80 are Dec and Jan and just a little further south (RIC) all 12 months have seen 80 . I remember 79 in December 1998... didn't quite make 80 but we had a shot!

Quoting 51. StormTrackerScott:



That could be a sneaker down the road Gro. November is notorious for a Tropical system to form during El-Nino years.


I'm looking for development closer to home. Look at the water vapor loop.
Have to call it a day. But one last thing/question:
Yesterday I ran across a term I cannot remember having heard before (after, umm, so many years of reading weather blogs), neither in English nor in German (although I surely saw reports about the phenomenon as such): "seiche" what means "a standing wave oscillating in a body of water". It was mentioned yesterday in a BBC video about a reemerging town in Argentina which was submerged by a seiche decades ago. Wikipedia got an article about "seiches", mentioning that the Great Lakes are often affected by such a "seiche". Reading the current blog entry I wonder whether the area would see such an effect with the current storm over there.


Source: NOAA "What is a seiche?"

Cathedral bells ring for midnight. Good night, may everyone in their storms stay safe.
Here is a pic I took this morning in Grand Cayman. The system in the SW Caribbean is producing quite a few thunderboomers in our area. Link
Quoting 41. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





not so real weather picture
Well, no, the "real" picture is not so real either. This is the original, from a tornado in Parker CO in 2008. The original was heavily shopped by someone. It has appeared as a new tornado in every year since 2009.

copied from previous blog, because I live on a farm and often miss a chance to sit down at a computer. :)

Quoting 151. ChiThom:

The high winds are here, just west of Chicago, not damaging winds, but scary nonetheless. Some gusts up to 60 mph. Flights are being cancelled at O'hare airport. Garbage cans and solid wooden benches are knocked over and blowing around. It's a good day to stay inside. The power went out at about 8:00 a.m., but came back on within minutes, thank goodness. We had 1.25" rain. We needed it.


Here in Fallon, we call that "March."

:)

(n.b. Bugs me that my mom's birthday had to be during the time of year when crosswinds down 395 add 5 miles to my trip meter. I mean literally. 495 miles, except in March. But when your mom crosses her 90's, you damned well better show up for each and every one.)
Shear is pretty favorable in the western Caribbean.
Declining snowpack, water shortage projected in areas home to 2 billion: study
BY SEBASTIEN MALO


Large swathes of the northern hemisphere, home to some 2 billion people, could suffer increasing water shortages due to shrinking snowpacks, researchers said on Thursday.

Data shows reduced snowpacks - the seasonal accumulation of snow - will likely imperil water supplies by 2060 in regions from California's farmlands to war-torn areas of the Middle East, according to a team of scientists in the United States and Europe.

In total, nearly a hundred water basins dependent on snow across the northern hemisphere run the chance of decline.

"Water managers in a lot of places may need to prepare for a world where the snow reservoir no longer exists," said Justin Mankin, the study's lead author and a researcher at Columbia University's Earth Institute in New York, in a statement.

Basins in northern and central California, the Ebro-Duero basin in Portugal, Spain and southern France and the Shatt al-Arab basin affecting much of the Middle East including Iraq and Syria count among those most sensitive to changes, the study shows.

In these areas, global warming is disrupting snow accumulation, which acts as a seasonal source of water when it melts, the researchers said.

Still, across most of North America, northern Europe, Russia, China and southeast Asia, rainfall is projected to continue meeting demand, according to the study published in the online journal Environmental Research Letters.

Earlier this year, amid a devastating drought in California, U.S. authorities reported that a dry, mild winter had left the country's Western mountain snowpack at record low levels.

World leaders will meet in Paris starting this month in a bid to agree on ways to reduce the effects of climate change.

(Reporting by Sebastien Malo, Editing by Ellen Wulfhorst. Please credit the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, that covers humanitarian news, women's rights, trafficking, corruption and climate change. Visit www.trust.org)

Once Stable Greenland Glacier Facing Rapid Melt

In their data, the researchers saw that while Zachariae was stable for decades, that all changed when a huge chunk of its ice shelf broke off in 2002-03, after which the remainder continued to crumble. Today it is only 5 percent of the size it was in 2002.
Climate Central as an animation of the break-up:



The Times has a broader ice sheet article up –
The Secrets in Greenland’s Ice Sheets

A few years ago, a NASA-­supported researcher seeking to shed light on the ice sheet’s interior pipes dropped 90 yellow rubber ducks into a Greenland moulin, a deep hole in the ice sheet, with his contact information on them, in case they were found. Only two ducks were recovered — the next year — thanks to a fisherman working in a nearby bay. Somewhere, trapped deep in the Greenland ice sheet, or floating in the waters nearby, or who knows where, really, there are 88 more rubber ducks.

Link
It's interesting how upper air patterns sometimes dramatically go against what we expect from a typical situation. Now, usually, El Nino impacts the FL peninsula most by winter into spring in the form of cooler and wetter than average conditions. But usually it does at least impact the fall a little.
The CPC for example, a few months back had Florida slightly cooler and wetter than average for this fall as well, turning to much wetter than average and moderately cooler than average for the winter.

So far this fall has been one of the warmest and driest on record for that region. One example is the weather station at my parent's house in the Tampa Bay area that has had steady data since installed 13 years ago. This fall is by far the warmest of the 13 years, completely standing out from other years, and is also on pace to be the driest, though not quite as dramatically as it is warmer than average. But still definitely it is on pace to be both the warmest and driest.

We were once in the unusual heat and dryness here in Tallahassee, but we had very heavy rains of 3-4 inches this weekend followed by cooler drier air the past couple days, with much cooler air on pace for the weekend with 60's for highs and 40's for lows. Unfortunately the peninsula remains stuck under the death grip of ridging, with continued warmer and drier than average temps through the period.

Usually the Tampa Bay area would have seen at least a few events with nights in the 50's by now with the first usually arriving by early to mid October, but much of the region is yet to drop below 65, something that usually is reached by Late September/Early October.
I think FL is under the influence of the dreaded "death ridge" that has plagued Texas and California many of times. Such a dominating ridging pattern isn't broken easily.


It will continue to be more like a strong La Nina than a strong El Nino in the FL peninsula until it breaks.
Quoting 57. StormTrackerScott:

Our only hope in FL to cause a break in this ridge over FL is for something Tropical to come up from the South. If that can happen the western side of this heat ridge over FL will then erode. I just can't believe that I am seeing 92 to even 94 one the Euro next week for FL. This is just ridiculous already.




Yeah, model guidance is looking off the charts warm for the FL peninsula next week. I bet FL's economy is on the upswing right now because of the warmth and long hurricane drought. The last couple years when I head back home to the Tampa Bay area, the beaches and related coastal entertainment is more packed with visitors than I've ever seen. FL's tourism has bounced back from the 2004-2005 season losses and because of the hurricane drought has been booming more than ever.

The one exception was 2010-2011 winter which was one of the top 5 coldest winters in West Central FL. Otherwise lower than average amounts of severe weather and hurricanes have fueled tourism.


Does this mean that what happened in Chicago with the high winds and tornadoes will happen in Houston?
Is anyone having trouble in entering the JTWC page? I have been trying to access but it doesn´t let me.http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
Excerpt from the Miami NWS Disco....

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA STARTING THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH CENTER
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NEXT
WEEK. WHILE FRIDAY`S FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA/FL
STRAITS BY SATURDAY, THE LOWER PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY WILL KEEP
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH THE
POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
ADD SOME DYNAMICS TO THE MIX SO POPS WILL BE FAIRLY ROBUST AT
40-60 PERCENT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS DURING THE
PERIOD AS ACTIVITY PUSHES ONTO THE EAST COAST AND ACROSS THE
PENINSULA.

MOST NOTABLY THE PATTERN CHANGE AND INCREASED PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN THE LOW 80S. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST THAT DON`T GET OUT OF THE 70S SUN/MON.
Quoting 87. allancalderini:

Is anyone having trouble in entering the JTWC page? I have been trying to access but it doesn´t let me.http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
Works fine for me, but you only need the "www" part, not the "http".
Quoting 82. Patrap:

Declining snowpack, water shortage projected in areas home to 2 billion: study
BY SEBASTIEN MALO


Large swathes of the northern hemisphere, home to some 2 billion people, could suffer increasing water shortages due to shrinking snowpacks, researchers said on Thursday.

Data shows reduced snowpacks - the seasonal accumulation of snow - will likely imperil water supplies by 2060 in regions from California's farmlands to war-torn areas of the Middle East, according to a team of scientists in the United States and Europe.

In total, nearly a hundred water basins dependent on snow across the northern hemisphere run the chance of decline.

"Water managers in a lot of places may need to prepare for a world where the snow reservoir no longer exists," said Justin Mankin, the study's lead author and a researcher at Columbia University's Earth Institute in New York, in a statement.

Basins in northern and central California, the Ebro-Duero basin in Portugal, Spain and southern France and the Shatt al-Arab basin affecting much of the Middle East including Iraq and Syria count among those most sensitive to changes, the study shows.

In these areas, global warming is disrupting snow accumulation, which acts as a seasonal source of water when it melts, the researchers said.

Still, across most of North America, northern Europe, Russia, China and southeast Asia, rainfall is projected to continue meeting demand, according to the study published in the online journal Environmental Research Letters.

Earlier this year, amid a devastating drought in California, U.S. authorities reported that a dry, mild winter had left the country's Western mountain snowpack at record low levels.

World leaders will meet in Paris starting this month in a bid to agree on ways to reduce the effects of climate change.

(Reporting by Sebastien Malo, Editing by Ellen Wulfhorst. Please credit the Thomson Reuters Foundation, the charitable arm of Thomson Reuters, that covers humanitarian news, women's rights, trafficking, corruption and climate change. Visit www.trust.org)


Is the end of the world near?


no me gusta!
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Strong and gusty winds expected tonight into Friday. High water levels for Eastern Lake Erie tonight.

Strong southwesterly winds have developed as expected across Southern Ontario with frequent gusts of 70 to 80 km/h in many areas in the wake of a strong cold front that is currently moving through Eastern Ontario.

The cold front and strong winds will reach the Trenton to Kingston areas by this evening.

A few higher gusts near 85 km/h are quite possible.

Even stronger winds with frequent gusts of 90 to 110 km/h are expected near Eastern Lake Erie and in the Picton and Sandbanks area near Eastern Lake Ontario where wind warnings are in effect.

In addition, the very strong winds have resulted in abnormally high water levels for Eastern Lake Erie, where a high water level warning is in effect. A combination of high water levels, high waves, and southwest winds gusting to 90 km/h or more may result in shoreline flooding and erosion, from Fort Erie through Port Colborne to Dunnville, and possibly as far west as the Long Point area.

These strong winds will persist through this evening before slowly starting to diminish somewhat later tonight or Friday morning.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.
Quoting 89. Grothar:


Quoting 88. Grothar:




I think it's a little bigger in that second pic.
Quoting 94. pureet1948:



no me gusta!
'

Me no like!
Models showing a subtropical cyclone i guess...over the next week...Larry? :o
Quoting 92. sar2401:

Works fine for me, but you only need the "www" part, not the "http".
thanks Sar but that was not the problem not sure why I can´t access.
The Southwest Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Season already begun and "Annabelle" wants to be a really beautiful tropical cyclone. Still a lot of day away but is really interesting to see this for the 1st named storm:


">

Really Impressive.
Climate Change, as Pat likes to put it El-Nino 2.0, not the usual, interesting times for young Mets around the world. I'm sure I will be meeting some of you at a summit in the near future.


some snow showing up nam is incomplete 00z run is running
Quoting 97. pureet1948:

'

Me no like!
march of storms begin early winter late fall take wing
Quoting 103. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

march of storms begin early winter late fall take wing



Are you telling me that this is a normal WX pattern for November?
Quoting 96. beell:



I think it's a little bigger in that second pic.


It's bigger in this one! :P

I'm telling you, you better watch this one.

Quoting 104. pureet1948:




Are you telling me that this is a normal WX pattern for November?


Fall certainly can bring a 2nd round of severe weather. I remember a few years back a Christmas tornado outbreak somewhere along the Gulf Coast if i'm not mistaken.


Edit: Yep here's the reports, it was a moderate day.

107. beell
Quoting 105. Grothar:



It's bigger in this one! :P

I'm telling you, you better watch this one.




If you're watching it, Gro...then I'm watching it. Although I think this graphic has been photoshopped.
:)


A brief cool down to near normal for a brief period. Tampa is running 7 degrees above normal for November. I guess we won't see that 10" - 12" next week along with severe weather.
Quoting 106. SouthCentralTx:



Fall certainly can bring a 2nd round of severe weather. I remember a few years back a Christmas tornado outbreak somewhere along the Gulf Coast if i'm not mistaken.


Edit: Yep here's the reports, it was a moderate day.




Would you say we're looking at a similar WX event in SE Texas the week of Nov. 17-18?
Quoting 107. beell:



If you're watching it, Gro...then I'm watching it. Although I think this graphic has been photoshopped.
:)


My son has pimples bigger than that.
Quoting 57. StormTrackerScott:

Our only hope in FL to cause a break in this ridge over FL is for something Tropical to come up from the South. If that can happen the western side of this heat ridge over FL will then erode. I just can't believe that I am seeing 92 to even 94 one the Euro next week for FL. This is just ridiculous already.




At least this one appears to be shorter.
Quoting 109. pureet1948:



Would you say we're looking at a similar WX event in SE Texas the week of Nov. 17-18?



This is the discussion from the SPC, that's where your best advice is going to come from. :)

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY/DAY 4 INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON SUNDAY
WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET. IN
RESPONSE...MOISTURE RETURN IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE IN THE SRN PLAINS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND OK. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON MONDAY/DAY 5 AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON MONDAY SHOWING A MOIST SECTOR FROM CNTRL TX
ESEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE 60S F. FOR THIS REASON...INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS EAST TX MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL... WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY
A FEW TORNADOES. THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS CONTINUE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY/DAY 6 MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
AND LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY PERSISTING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES. ON
WEDNESDAY/DAY 7...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE ECMWF
MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS WHILE THE GFS KEEPS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY/DAY 8
SUGGESTING THAT UNCERTAINTY IS SUBSTANTIAL DURING THE MID-WEEK
TIMEFRAME.


Still looks to me like areas N to NE of I-10 stand the best chance of seeing the worst storms. It usually happens that way this time of year in Houston.
Quoting 107. beell:



If you're watching it, Gro...then I'm watching it. Although I think this graphic has been photoshopped.
:)


You know how long it took me to put in the blue? I think it is possible to see two systems next week. The pressures near the Bahamas I'm watching closely.
A selection of recent articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment. Visit my blog for the complete list in comment #1692.



'Venus twin' excites astronomers Not quite a twin. It orbits its sun in 1.6 days. And receives 15 times the radiation Venus does.



NASA's Cassini finds monstrous ice cloud in south polar region of On Saturn's moon Titan The real polar vortex



'Spooky action at a distance' is really real: hidden variable alternative definitively disproven

New derivation of pi links quantum physics and pure math: Researchers stumbled upon a famous pre-Newtonian formula for pi while computing the energy levels of a hydrogen atom

Two pages from the book "Arithmetica Infinitorum," by John Wallis (1655)



Visualizing Long-range Severe Thunderstorm Environment Guidance from CFSv2
Quoting 107. beell:



If you're watching it, Gro...then I'm watching it. Although I think this graphic has been photoshopped.
:)


Already looks annular to me.
Seiche seesaws swiftly
surging surrounding shoreline
submerging structures
Quoting 80. nonblanche:

copied from previous blog, because I live on a farm and often miss a chance to sit down at a computer. :)

Quoting 151. ChiThom:

The high winds are here, just west of Chicago, not damaging winds, but scary nonetheless. Some gusts up to 60 mph. Flights are being cancelled at O'hare airport. Garbage cans and solid wooden benches are knocked over and blowing around. It's a good day to stay inside. The power went out at about 8:00 a.m., but came back on within minutes, thank goodness. We had 1.25" rain. We needed it.


Here in Fallon, we call that "March."

:)

(n.b. Bugs me that my mom's birthday had to be during the time of year when crosswinds down 395 add 5 miles to my trip meter. I mean literally. 495 miles, except in March. But when your mom crosses her 90's, you damned well better show up for each and every one.)


I drove my motorcycle at 100 mph, so 60 mph is no big deal, but 'nature's wind speed' only hit 75 mph once in my lifetime here in Illinois. It's very rare to get winds over 60. An architect once told me, "We never hit 75 mph here in Illinois" when designing a house, but we did hit 75mph just a few years ago, only once that I recall. By then the architect had moved-on to the next world, so he was right in his lifetime.
Quoting 79. sar2401:

Well, no, the "real" picture is not so real either. This is the original, from a tornado in Parker CO in 2008. The original was heavily shopped by someone. It has appeared as a new tornado in every year since 2009.



Wow, sar! It amazes me how quickly you tracked it down. You're a real sleuth.
Quoting 108. Bucsboltsfan:



A brief cool down to near normal for a brief period. Tampa is running 7 degrees above normal for November. I guess we won't see that 10" - 12" next week along with severe weather.


LOL yeah not even close, 20% seems reasonable to me, and those highs will probably be closer to 90 unfortunately, if guidance is correct. Those, it's wise fore forecasters not to go nuts in forecasting record highs several days out, but it looks like more record heat and dry weather is in store next week for the FL peninsula according to available guidance.


00z GFS @ 120 hours. Still think the worst of the storms will take place north of I-10, if not north of the Houston Metro.

On the other hand, what are we looking at, really? Flood event or widespread high winds similar to what happened in the Great Lakes region today?
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
136 PM PST THU NOV 12 2015

...STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

AN ENERGETIC NORTHWEST SWELL WILL APPROACH THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
THIS ENERGETIC SWELL WILL RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES...STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND POTENTIAL SNEAKERS WAVES PERIODICALLY AT AREA
BEACHES ON SATURDAY...

COASTLINE FROM SONOMA COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH MONTEREY
COUNTY. IN PARTICULAR WEST TO NORTHWEST FACING
BEACHES...INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO...OCEAN BEACH...MONTARA
STATE BEACH...MAVERICKS

Surfs up.
124. 7544
Quoting 114. Grothar:



You know how long it took me to put in the blue? I think it is possible to see two systems next week. The pressures near the Bahamas I'm watching closely.


you mean like this one
Link
Quoting 119. ChiThom:


I drove my motorcycle at 100 mph, so 60 mph is no big deal, but 'nature's wind speed' only hit 75 mph once in my lifetime here in Illinois. It's very rare to get winds over 60. An architect once told me, "We never hit 75 mph here in Illinois" when designing a house, but we did hit 75mph just a few years ago, only once that I recall. By then the architect had moved-on to the next world, so he was right in his lifetime.


It's definitely a "use real nails not staples on your shingles" situation.
Quoting 79. sar2401:

Well, no, the "real" picture is not so real either. This is the original, from a tornado in Parker CO in 2008. The original was heavily shopped by someone. It has appeared as a new tornado in every year since 2009.


Not the same pictures, but obviously two different pictures of the same event, from different locations and times.
Oh, GFS...


Just posted my 130th update on the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Although Kate is gone, I have an update on the southern Caribbean disturbance and also the potential for another disturbance to pop up northeast of the Dominican Republic next week.
Quoting 127. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, GFS...





Glad I don't live in Florida.
For Friday the 13th I present Belphegor's prime 1000000000000066600000000000001

1 followed by 13 zeroes, 666 in the middle, 13 more zeroes and a 1 at the end. 31 digits (13 reversed) A palindromic prime, and the most evil number there is.
So here's some good news. This is how much water was locked in the Sierra Nevada snow pack exactly one year ago:

And here's today:
Quoting 127. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, GFS...





So, why is this not going to come to fruition?
ECMWF 00z signaling a pattern change towards the end of the run. Switch over to a negative NAO/AO regime in the 500mb wavelengths.


Quoting 133. Drakoen:

ECMWF 00z signaling a pattern change towards the end of the run. Switch over to a negative NAO/AO regime in the 500mb wavelengths.





What does this mean in layman's terms?
Quoting 134. pureet1948:



What does this mean in layman's terms?


Possibly colder weather in the East.
Gro..we cant believe this right?............................................ ................
Can..our still summertime heat and warm gulf waters..still produce this in NOVEMBER?...........
a question for the experts if I may........can...a strong el-nino...added with GW..and..in florida..our still summertime heat and very warm gulf waters.....extend the hurricane season?
Quoting 132. DeepSeaRising:



So, why is this not going to come to fruition?
It could. It is a Nino year. The latest landfalling hurricane occurred in 1925 on November 30 near Tampa. 1925 was a strong El nino.
Quoting 138. LargoFl:

a question for the experts if I may........can...a strong el-nino...added with GW..and..in florida..our still summertime heat and very warm gulf waters.....extend the hurricane season?
I,m not an expert, but please forgive me if I try...Tropical cyclones have occurred in every month in the Atlantic basin. They likely will not officially extend it, but issue advisories on a out of season cyclone. It probably will be a more common occurrence too.
Quoting 140. hydrus:

I,m not an expert, but please forgive me if I try...Tropical cyclones have occurred in every month in the Atlantic basin. They likely will not officially extend it, but issue advisories on a out of season cyclone. It probably will be a more common occurrence too.
ok thanks hydrus,this gfs run is kinda scary huh.
Good morning hello with some wild weather from South America:


Incredible bombing by hail (here some more photos). Happened already some days ago (Nov 9) in the Argentinian province of Entre Rios. Huge damage more to the west in the province of Cordoba as well.


Yesterday: Heavy rains sweep el Monumental stadium in Buenos Aires, Argentina, forcing the postponement of a World Cup qualifier.
143. beell
Quoting 120. ChiThom:


Wow, sar! It amazes me how quickly you tracked it down. You're a real sleuth.


How about; right click on the image and select "search Google for this image".
144. beell
Quoting 126. guygee:

Not the same pictures, but obviously two different pictures of the same event, from different locations and times.


It would have to be-same event, from the exact same angle, at the exact same time. It's shopped-imo of course.
Very interesting:
Incredible seiche on Lake Erie
November 12, 2015 By Bill Steffen under Bill's Blog, News, Weather
GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (WOOD) - The powerful Great Lakes storm has produced an incredible seiche on Lake Erie, and smaller seiches on the other Great Lakes. ...

148. beell
Ladies and gentlemen of the jury...





Quoting 131. TimSoCal:

So here's some good news. This is how much water was locked in the Sierra Nevada snow pack exactly one year ago:

And here's today:



That is good news. There's a long way to go but they gotta start somewhere.
looking at gfs 300 hrs . hum. florida got lucky with wilma. instead of stalling and dancing over cancuun for a few days what if she did not stall and continued towards sw florida. wilma could of been a strong cat 4 twc wouldnot of had cameras at the beach.
151. MahFL
Looks like the NHC went live with their new page layout.
Quoting 93. Kenfa03:

Is the end of the world near?
< No, well if we get hit by a very large Asteroid, maybe, the problem of overpopulation will take care of itself, be ready and endure. Why do my quotes not show up?
Quoting 104. pureet1948:




Are you telling me that this is a normal WX pattern for November?
Maybe for this year. Who knows what the pattern will be like next year.
Quoting 137. LargoFl:

Can..our still summertime heat and warm gulf waters..still produce this in NOVEMBER?...........
Yes, why not, it has happened before, and history will repeat itself.
So now we are looking at models 300 to 384 hrs out and making references to Wilma???.....I think is time to go away for a while!
Lol.GFS has a Holiday hurricane xD.I've seen it all now with that model...
Nino 3.4 may very well be raised to 3C on Next Monday's update smashing the old record of 2.8C back in 1997 & 1982. What is impressive is this El-Nino is still growing and could max near 3.2C or maybe higher next month.

Quoting 156. washingtonian115:

Lol.GFS has a Holiday hurricane xD.I've seen it all now with that model...


LOL!
Quoting 85. Jedkins01:



Yeah, model guidance is looking off the charts warm for the FL peninsula next week. I bet FL's economy is on the upswing right now because of the warmth and long hurricane drought. The last couple years when I head back home to the Tampa Bay area, the beaches and related coastal entertainment is more packed with visitors than I've ever seen. FL's tourism has bounced back from the 2004-2005 season losses and because of the hurricane drought has been booming more than ever.

The one exception was 2010-2011 winter which was one of the top 5 coldest winters in West Central FL. Otherwise lower than average amounts of severe weather and hurricanes have fueled tourism.


It's very weird seeing what is going on around here and this heat is having major retail effect as stores like Macy's, Gap, ect. are having a hard time selling any clothes that are for cool to cold weather. I was in the Mall yesterday returning some stuff to the Gap and the employee said sells are the worst they have ever seen as no one is buying any cool weather clothes like sweaters, coats, and long pants.
Model guidance is suggesting that these temps next week will be closer to 90 with 70 for lows in Orlando.

Orlando


Quoting 160. StormTrackerScott:

Model guidance is suggesting that these temps next week will be closer to 90 with 70 for lows in Orlando.

Orlando





Local mets are forecasting lows around 72-73 for the middle of next week. We still have yet to hit 65 for a low, which should change tonight. This heat is absolutely unheard of for November and it'll take a cold front coming through today just to bring us back to average temps!
This Oceanic Downwelling Kelvin Wave is very strong and seems to heading for South America so we can expect values across Nino 1&2 to really begin to spike upwards. This Kelvin Wave has already increased values dramatically across Nino 4 & Nino 3.4.

Quoting 161. tampabaymatt:



Local mets are forecasting lows around 72-73 for the middle of next week. We still have yet to hit 65 for a low, which should change tonight. This heat is absolutely unheard of for November and it'll take a cold front coming through today just to bring us back to average temps!


Euro has trended much wetter across FL next week compared to the drier GFS but both models do agree that temps could get close to 90 again next week mind you by then the average high for those dates are closer to 77.
For West Palm Beach...

Euro setting the stage for a cold and stormy Thanksgiving week across much of the US

Quoting 155. tropicofcancer:

So now we are looking at models 300 to 384 hrs out and making references to Wilma???.....I think is time to go away for a while!
I put all those 384 hour modelers on ignore 2 years ago. Why waste your time scrolling thru junk.
What about Florida? been very dry here on the Space Coast. Will we start to see El-Nino conditions by the end of the year or just maybe January through spring? This fall pattern in Florida is off.
Quoting 165. StormTrackerScott:

Euro setting the stage for a cold and stormy Thanksgiving week across much of the US


Quoting 167. hurricanewatcher61:

What about Florida? been very dry here on the Space Coast. Will we start to see El-Nino conditions by the end of the year or just maybe January through spring? This fall pattern in Florida is off.


Euro is showing a major change but can this hold on its later runs is the question. Euro is trending wetter next which could lead to much cooler closer to Thanksgiving. Lots of if's as this was the first run of the Euro to go back to its previous solution that this model was showing on Monday for next week.

This may not look that impressive but its actually a big change from virtually no precip on its 12Z run yesterday. This could be a sign that the pattern may break as this ridge pops across Canada and allows for the jet to under cut across the South typical of what we would expect in El-Nino. Well see how its 12Z run fairs.

Quoting 148. beell:

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury...






Interesting but inconclusive. A better analysis would be to do a pixel-by-pixel analysis in those regions looking for artifacts if indeed it was cropped into a different scene, looking for hard edge mismatches or stray pixels from attempts at blending. Pretty tedious exercise for this blog. I will grant you that the alleged fake looks like it has its contrast and color saturation tweaked, but a lot of camera software performs those operations automatically.
Regardless, good catch by Sar.
Quoting 142. barbamz:

Good morning hello with some wild weather from South America:


Incredible bombing by hail (here some more photos). Happened already some days ago (Nov 9) in the Argentinian province of Entre Rios. Huge damage more to the west in the province of Cordoba as well.


Yesterday: Heavy rains sweep el Monumental stadium in Buenos Aires, Argentina, forcing the postponement of a World Cup qualifier.


Wow that is just amazing. Does that happen often down there?
Amber Warnings posted by the Met Office UK - Kate rumbles on . . .

Remnants of ex #HurricaneKate will bring heavy and persistent rain this weekend. Warnings have been issued
https://t.co/cqa7b1gqbk— Met Office (@metoffice) November 13, 2015
Quoting 170. DavidHOUTX:



Wow that is just amazing. Does that happen often down there?


It does but like here in the states when there is El-Nino the effects are maximized. I suspect the Euro is beginning to show a major change across the US infact Texas may have a blue norther on its hands next week. Could get very cold across the Southern Plains and this could even extend to the SE US Thanksgiving week.
Quoting 79. sar2401:

Well, no, the "real" picture is not so real either. This is the original, from a tornado in Parker CO in 2008. The original was heavily shopped by someone. It has appeared as a new tornado in every year since 2009.




It's not shopped. At least, not shopped the way people think it is.

It's actually a picture of the same tornado, just from a slightly different place and but approximately near the same time. The main "shopped" look comes from equalizing the colors (and maybe messing around with hue/sat values). I can recreate the look of the "shopped" image in the original in a few seconds with gimp. I can also "unshop" the alleged shopped image be applying the inverse set of operations.

The high frequency detail differences between the two images (along with their distributions) make it very unlikely that the image was "shopped" beyond that. Take a look at the clouds in both images, for example. It would have taken someone a considerable amount of time to do that in such a way as to hide the evidence direct tampering. The original image has more of chance being a doctored one, as examination reveals an unusually regular "curve" near the origin when examining the levels. But since I own a Nikon D70 (the image was taken with a D60) I'm familiar with how the auto-correction curves can lead to some weirdness in JPEGS (RAWs don't have that problem).

Now that doesn't stop people from claiming the image is something it's not. But it's very unlikely the image was fabricated. Post-processed certainly but not doctored.
Quoting 127. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, GFS...





Look at the forecast hours.. That should tell you all you need to know. xD
Here is the only long range model I look at. Guaranteed to verify and put a smile into most of us:
Link
AMO is at it's warmest it's been all year...2015 0.010 0.014 -0.111 -0.054 0.062 0.047 0.150 0.196 0.318 0.342 -99.990 -99.990
-99.99
"Yeah, model guidance is looking off the charts warm for the FL peninsula next week. I bet FL's economy is on the upswing right now because of the warmth and long hurricane drought. The last couple years when I head back home to the Tampa Bay area, the beaches and related coastal entertainment is more packed with visitors than I've ever seen. FL's tourism has bounced back from the 2004-2005 season losses and because of the hurricane drought has been booming more than ever. " that is true but as fast as we are polluting the beaches and developing every natural spot into condos or shopping centers eventually the tourist will stop coming. beaches in sarasota area have been closed due to pollution and bacteria already this year. if the beaches are dirty and everything has developed into a condo or strip mall tourist go elsewhere and we end up getting a state income tax to make up the difference. but the politicians just keep the status quo.
Quoting 172. StormTrackerScott:



It does but like here in the states when there is El-Nino the effects are maximized. I suspect the Euro is beginning to show a major change across the US infact Texas may have a blue norther on its hands next week. Could get very cold across the Southern Plains and this could even extend to the SE US Thanksgiving week.


A Texas Plains saying


"T'aint nothin between Texas and the North Pole 'cept a bobwire fence"
Quoting 156. washingtonian115:

Lol.GFS has a Holiday hurricane xD.I've seen it all now with that model...


Kate was a holiday hurricane for me in Tallahassee in 1985. Don't want to go through another 'cane ever!
Wow! This may be the last week or so of sub-400 ppm CO2 ever on earth (at least on any time scale relevant to humanity). Just extrapolating from last year, it would look like we could rise to around 407 ppm this winter, and then drop to around 400 ppm by next September. Slight chance of dropping maybe to 399-399.9 ppm range for a couple weeks, I suppose. We'll see. Next year would definitely be the last chance were it to occur. But it would be brief.

http://blogs.agu.org/mountainbeltway/2015/11/09/t he-final-days-of-sub-400-ppm-carbon-dioxide/?utm_s ource=climatenexus&utm_medium=referral
Quoting 138. LargoFl:

a question for the experts if I may........can...a strong el-nino...added with GW..and..in florida..our still summertime heat and very warm gulf waters.....extend the hurricane season?


They don't extend it. But off season storms are fully tracked so there is no lapse in public safety. There have been December storms in past years and very occasionally storms in other months.
Quoting 104. pureet1948:




Are you telling me that this is a normal WX pattern for November?


Yes these are not unusual in November.
Quoting 134. pureet1948:



What does this mean in layman's terms?


It will get cold and fairly stormy in the Eastern U.S.
184. txjac
Quoting 159. StormTrackerScott:



It's very weird seeing what is going on around here and this heat is having major retail effect as stores like Macy's, Gap, ect. are having a hard time selling any clothes that are for cool to cold weather. I was in the Mall yesterday returning some stuff to the Gap and the employee said sells are the worst they have ever seen as no one is buying any cool weather clothes like sweaters, coats, and long pants.


I'm sitting here in Houston Texas, my office building is freezing. I'm actually sitting here with a coat on! And I'm not the only one. We have spoken with building management as its been like this since the last couple of weeks but so far they have done nothing.
Quoting 173. Xyrus2000:



It's not shopped. At least, not shopped the way people think it is.

It's actually a picture of the same tornado, just from a slightly different place and but approximately near the same time. The main "shopped" look comes from equalizing the colors (and maybe messing around with hue/sat values). I can recreate the look of the "shopped" image in the original in a few seconds with gimp. I can also "unshop" the alleged shopped image be applying the inverse set of operations.

The high frequency detail differences between the two images (along with their distributions) make it very unlikely that the image was "shopped" beyond that. Take a look at the clouds in both images, for example. It would have taken someone a considerable amount of time to do that in such a way as to hide the evidence direct tampering. The original image has more of chance being a doctored one, as examination reveals an unusually regular "curve" near the origin when examining the levels. But since I own a Nikon D70 (the image was taken with a D60) I'm familiar with how the auto-correction curves can lead to some weirdness in JPEGS (RAWs don't have that problem).

Now that doesn't stop people from claiming the image is something it's not. But it's very unlikely the image was fabricated. Post-processed certainly but not doctored.
I use Gimp also to "doctor" photos in terms of improving what the camera took. Gimp does not improve photos by replacing the entire foreground as was done with this photo. That kind of deception falls within what most people think of as shopping.
Quoting 162. StormTrackerScott:

This Oceanic Downwelling Kelvin Wave is very strong and seems to heading for South America so we can expect values across Nino 1&2 to really begin to spike upwards. This Kelvin Wave has already increased values dramatically across Nino 4 & Nino 3.4.


And that upwelling kelvin wave behind setting up for la nina next year? fingers cross!
LOL one whole day of non-satan scorching heat...-
Quoting 164. GeoffreyWPB:

For West Palm Beach...


El nino about to peak.
Quoting 184. txjac:



I'm sitting here in Houston Texas, my office building is freezing. I'm actually sitting here with a coat on! And I'm not the only one. We have spoken with building management as its been like this since the last couple of weeks but so far they have done nothing.
Went down to 42 here this morning, so I was freezing without sitting in an office building. :-) Should get down to about 39 tomorrow morning and 36 Sunday morning. My brother lives in Reno. He had six inches of snow on Tuesday and it still hasn't melted. The November warmth is fleeing rapidly from most places other then Florida.
Quoting 143. beell:



How about; right click on the image and select "search Google for this image".
It was a little more difficult than that for this picture. I had to track back through a bunch of reddit threads to find the original posted by the guy who actually took it. Regardless, for most pictures, it's really not hard to to use the "Search Google" option to find an obvious fake. I wish more people would use it before posting images.
Quoting 175. capeflorida:

Here is the only long range model I look at. Guaranteed to verify and put a smile into most of us:
Link


So only 41 days eh? Seems like it was just 41 days ago it was Christmas...
It was, according to Target.
Quoting 191. SouthCentralTx:



So only 41 days eh? Seems like it was just 41 days ago it was Christmas...
Just checking in briefly this morning before I have to be a grown up and go to work. So far we are a little more than 16 hours into our current storm, or atmospheric river. The winds in the Seattle area have been steady around 20mph with a peak gust to 36. So, windy, but not really affecting anything. The rains are steady, and should continue all day. Per the normal, the Olympic rain shadow will protect the lowlands from the worst of everything! I've listed our current warnings for Seattle proper below. However, outside the city there are warnings flying for everything including surf to snow.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
358 AM PST FRI NOV 13 2015

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...EVERETT...SHELTON...SEATTLE...AND BREMERTON.

* WINDS...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND/OR GUSTS OF 45 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

Now to the rivers....

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
625 AM PST FRI NOV 13 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTHWEST WASHINGTON... CLALLAM...GRAYS HARBOR...JEFFERSON...MASON...SKAGIT AND WHATCOM. IN WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...KING...LEWIS...PIERCE...SNOHOMISH AND THURSTON.

* THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ON THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 11 INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE RAINFALL RATES TAPERING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY MORNING. MORE FLOODING IS LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF SOME OF THE LONGEST RIVERS...SUCH AS THE CHEHALIS...FLOOD...THE LOWER REACHES MAY NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE UNTIL SUNDAY.

* THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF MOST OF THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS AND WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING BUT FLOODING IS NOT IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

For more information check out the Seattle NWS Discussion or Cliff Mass' PNW Weather blog.
Quoting 180. ClimateChange:

Wow! This may be the last week or so of sub-400 ppm CO2 ever on earth (at least on any time scale relevant to humanity). Just extrapolating from last year, it would look like we could rise to around 407 ppm this winter, and then drop to around 400 ppm by next September. Slight chance of dropping maybe to 399-399.9 ppm range for a couple weeks, I suppose. We'll see. Next year would definitely be the last chance were it to occur. But it would be brief.

http://blogs.agu.org/mountainbeltway/2015/11/09/t he-final-days-of-sub-400-ppm-carbon-dioxide/?utm_s ource=climatenexus&utm_medium=referral

Yeah, this is like looking around to say goodbye to the old world...
Quoting 189. sar2401:

Went down to 42 here this morning, so I was freezing without sitting in an office building. :-) Should get down to about 39 tomorrow morning and 36 Sunday morning. My brother lives in Reno. He had six inches of snow on Tuesday and it still hasn't melted. The November warmth is fleeing rapidly from most places other then Florida.

The snow in Reno may not last too much longer. NWS forecast high today is 52 and 59 tomorrow.
Quoting 188. Gearsts:

El nino about to peak.



yes but still got a few more weeks be for it dos and it wont peak in tell mid too late DEC but not right now
arent we supposed to have a coolish and stormy type of weather because of el nino? i see that el nino is wreaking havoc around the world but i dont see its effects on florida since the temps are acting more like la nina event than el nino proper.someone correct me here if am wrong? i am just tired of the warm and humid weather outside
Quoting 197. knightwarrior41:

arent we supposed to have a coolish and stormy type of weather because of el nino? i see that el nino is wreaking havoc around the world but i dont see its effects on florida since the temps are acting more like la nina event than el nino proper.someone correct me here if am wrong? i am just tired of the warm and humid weather outside


Jedkins posted a great explanation of this earlier. I believe it is around comment #85.
Quoting 119. ChiThom:


I drove my motorcycle at 100 mph, so 60 mph is no big deal, but 'nature's wind speed' only hit 75 mph once in my lifetime here in Illinois. It's very rare to get winds over 60. An architect once told me, "We never hit 75 mph here in Illinois" when designing a house, but we did hit 75mph just a few years ago, only once that I recall. By then the architect had moved-on to the next world, so he was right in his lifetime.


60 MPH gusts are routine in Southern California below the passes during the Santa Ana winds. In 2011 gusts reached 100 MPH in the Orange County Santa Ana mountains and 150 MPH winds in the Sierra Nevada mountains at Mammoth Mountain. A few gusts shook the house so violently the thought crossed my mind it may collapse. Unlikely with the steel reinforcing girders in our neighborhood but I'll speculate 100 MPH was the design requirement.

Link
Quoting 84. Jedkins01:

It's interesting how upper air patterns sometimes dramatically go against what we expect from a typical situation. Now, usually, El Nino impacts the FL peninsula most by winter into spring in the form of cooler and wetter than average conditions. But usually it does at least impact the fall a little.
The CPC for example, a few months back had Florida slightly cooler and wetter than average for this fall as well, turning to much wetter than average and moderately cooler than average for the winter.

So far this fall has been one of the warmest and driest on record for that region. One example is the weather station at my parent's house in the Tampa Bay area that has had steady data since installed 13 years ago. This fall is by far the warmest of the 13 years, completely standing out from other years, and is also on pace to be the driest, though not quite as dramatically as it is warmer than average. But still definitely it is on pace to be both the warmest and driest.

We were once in the unusual heat and dryness here in Tallahassee, but we had very heavy rains of 3-4 inches this weekend followed by cooler drier air the past couple days, with much cooler air on pace for the weekend with 60's for highs and 40's for lows. Unfortunately the peninsula remains stuck under the death grip of ridging, with continued warmer and drier than average temps through the period.

Usually the Tampa Bay area would have seen at least a few events with nights in the 50's by now with the first usually arriving by early to mid October, but much of the region is yet to drop below 65, something that usually is reached by Late September/Early October.
I think FL is under the influence of the dreaded "death ridge" that has plagued Texas and California many of times. Such a dominating ridging pattern isn't broken easily.


It will continue to be more like a strong La Nina than a strong El Nino in the FL peninsula until it breaks.

thank you for your explanation but what it will take for the high to break?
Hope the blind squirrel doesn't find a nut this time.

Quoting 127. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, GFS...



Quoting 181. georgevandenberghe:



They don't extend it. But off season storms are fully tracked so there is no lapse in public safety. There have been December storms in past years and very occasionally storms in other months.
ok guess we stay alert thanks
Quoting 193. Seattleite:

Just checking in briefly this morning before I have to be a grown up and go to work. So far we are a little more than 16 hours into our current storm, or atmospheric river. The winds in the Seattle area have been steady around 20mph with a peak gust to 36. So, windy, but not really affecting anything. The rains are steady, and should continue all day. Per the normal, the Olympic rain shadow will protect the lowlands from the worst of everything! I've listed our current warnings for Seattle proper below. However, outside the city there are warnings flying for everything including surf to snow.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
358 AM PST FRI NOV 13 2015

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS...EVERETT...SHELTON...SEATTLE...AND BREMERTON.

* WINDS...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND/OR GUSTS OF 45 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

Now to the rivers....

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
625 AM PST FRI NOV 13 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTHWEST WASHINGTON... CLALLAM...GRAYS HARBOR...JEFFERSON...MASON...SKAGIT AND WHATCOM. IN WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...KING...LEWIS...PIERCE...SNOHOMISH AND THURSTON.

* THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

* RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ON THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 11 INCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE RAINFALL RATES TAPERING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY MORNING. MORE FLOODING IS LIKELY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IF SOME OF THE LONGEST RIVERS...SUCH AS THE CHEHALIS...FLOOD...THE LOWER REACHES MAY NOT FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE UNTIL SUNDAY.

* THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF MOST OF THE RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE OLYMPICS AND WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING BUT FLOODING IS NOT IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.

For more information check out the Seattle NWS Discussion or Cliff Mass' PNW Weather blog.
Just so you know. If you are a Seattle resident, you are not protected by the Olympic Rain Shadow which works N of the Olympics, e.g. Sequim, San Juan Islands, and somewhat to the east of the Olympic Mountains, e.g. Whidbey Island, Anacortes. Does NOT work for Seattle. Winter storms can come in south of the Olympics, and hit Seattle/Everett - really - (add: and, even when they are not that far south) often a convergence zone sets up near Everett. Good luck with your winter weather.

BTW, Cliff Moss Mass wrote an excellent explanation of this rain shadow years ago, but I'll let you search and find that.
Quoting 190. sar2401:

It was a little more difficult than that for this picture. I had to track back through a bunch of reddit threads to find the original posted by the guy who actually took it. Regardless, for most pictures, it's really not hard to to use the "Search Google" option to find an obvious fake. I wish more people would use it before posting images.

Sar, you were wrong. Certainly this one is the original, no? :-))))
Source.
nw. carib. gfs it will be watched closely. locally ready for some decent ocean showers. we were behind in oct and so far november is not much more than a drip. e cen fl.
Quoting 143. beell:



How about; right click on the image and select "search Google for this image".

Thanks beell... I didn't know that one.
Quoting 180. ClimateChange:

Wow! This may be the last week or so of sub-400 ppm CO2 ever on earth (at least on any time scale relevant to humanity). Just extrapolating from last year, it would look like we could rise to around 407 ppm this winter, and then drop to around 400 ppm by next September. Slight chance of dropping maybe to 399-399.9 ppm range for a couple weeks, I suppose. We'll see. Next year would definitely be the last chance were it to occur. But it would be brief.
http://blogs.agu.org/mountainbeltway/2015/11/09/t he-final-days-of-sub-400-ppm-carbon-dioxide/?utm_s ource=climatenexus&utm_medium=referral

Moreover, with these "comforting" news :-(
Indonesia says forest fires could be back in weeks
Source: Reuters - Fri, 13 Nov 2015 08:51 GMT
Shear is exceptionally low in and around the Bahamas, north of the island chain.
Quoting 200. knightwarrior41:

thank you for your explanation but what it will take for the high to break?


I still think winter circulation will do it esp. in an El Nino year.
Quoting 199. canyonboy:



60 MPH gusts are routine in Southern California below the passes during the Santa Ana winds. In 2011 gusts reached 100 MPH in the Orange County Santa Ana mountains and 150 MPH winds in the Sierra Nevada mountains at Mammoth Mountain. A few gusts shook the house so violently the thought crossed my mind it may collapse. Unlikely with the steel reinforcing girders in our neighborhood but I'll speculate 100 MPH was the design requirement.

Link

Actually, the design speed for 75 mph is 150 mph, according to the architect. They double the expected wind speed for a margin of safety in houses.
Quoting 159. StormTrackerScott:



It's very weird seeing what is going on around here and this heat is having major retail effect as stores like Macy's, Gap, ect. are having a hard time selling any clothes that are for cool to cold weather. I was in the Mall yesterday returning some stuff to the Gap and the employee said sells are the worst they have ever seen as no one is buying any cool weather clothes like sweaters, coats, and long pants.


Better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!
Quoting 130. BaltimoreBrian:

For Friday the 13th I present Belphegor's prime 1000000000000066600000000000001

1 followed by 13 zeroes, 666 in the middle, 13 more zeroes and a 1 at the end. 31 digits (13 reversed) A palindromic prime, and the most evil number there is.


The number 1100066600011 is prime too. It has 13 digits (corresponding to the 13th day of the month), its first two digits and last two digits are each "11" (corresponding to the 11th month of the year), and it is also a palindrome that has "666" as its middle three digits.
Quoting 180. ClimateChange:

Wow! This may be the last week or so of sub-400 ppm CO2 ever on earth (at least on any time scale relevant to humanity). Just extrapolating from last year, it would look like we could rise to around 407 ppm this winter, and then drop to around 400 ppm by next September. Slight chance of dropping maybe to 399-399.9 ppm range for a couple weeks, I suppose. We'll see. Next year would definitely be the last chance were it to occur. But it would be brief.

http://blogs.agu.org/mountainbeltway/2015/11/09/t he-final-days-of-sub-400-ppm-carbon-dioxide/?utm_s ource=climatenexus&utm_medium=referral





Get ready to savor your last breath of sub 400ppm air.
Hmmm.... interesting, maybe a cool neutral or la nina possibly during ASO-SON. Still very early to tell. However, the takeaway is that we may very well indeed still have a weak el nino through at least June 2016, likely weakening to cool neutral or weak la nina by about August-September 2016. Still very early to tell.
Quoting 204. barbamz:


Sar, you were wrong. Certainly this one is the original, no? :-))))
Source.
LOL. That one tornado image has been used for more shopping jobs than just about any other weather image I've seen.
Quoting 137. LargoFl:

Can..our still summertime heat and warm gulf waters..still produce this in NOVEMBER?...........


Nope. Not in my book.
Quoting 195. ACSeattle:


The snow in Reno may not last too much longer. NWS forecast high today is 52 and 59 tomorrow.
It's going to be a struggle to hit 52 today with the temperature still at 32 now. Still plenty of snow to hold the temperatures down. It looks like another round of snow on Sunday too. Looks like El Nino is getting into full swing out there.
Quoting 208. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Shear is exceptionally low in and around the Bahamas, north of the island chain.


And nothing in the area to possibly develop:


Safe to say that Winter has pretty much arrived across a large section of the Country with the exception of Florida; as usual.............................
Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Quoting 214. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Hmmm.... interesting, maybe a cool neutral or la nina possibly during ASO-SON. Still very early to tell. However, the takeaway is that we may very well indeed still have a weak el nino through at least June 2016, likely weakening to cool neutral or weak la nina by about August-September 2016. Still very early to tell.
If this does indeed turn out to be the strongest El Nino on record, it's highly unlikely it's going to switch over to even neutral by June let alone a La Nina. The 1982 El Nino lasted until about November of 1983, and the the 1997 event lasted until about August of 1998. Both events were followed by La Nina's that lasted four to five years, so once this El Nino event starts to wane, we should see a prolonged period of La Nina.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 218. weathermanwannabe:



And nothing in the area to possibly develop:



And the low shear is caused by a high to the east of the Bahamas. As usual, shear, or the lack thereof, is not the prime ingredient for tropical storms

Quoting 212. DCSwithunderscores:



The number 1100066600011 is prime too. It has 13 digits (corresponding to the 13th day of the month), its first two digits and last two digits are each "11" (corresponding to the 11th month of the year), and it is also a palindrome that has "666" as its middle three digits.
I'm thinking I should report this but I'm not sure if I should be thinking about it or not, maybe... Have a nice day.. sorry that whole 'blind squirrel' reference has me 'out of kilter' and now that I see a new entry is up as Winnie says with a sigh... 'oh bother'
Quoting 217. sar2401:

It's going to be a struggle to hit 52 today with the temperature still at 32 now. Still plenty of snow to hold the temperatures down. It looks like another round of snow on Sunday too. Looks like El Nino is getting into full swing out there.


Some places it might be. Sunny, crystal blue sky here. Saw a couple clouds yesterday, left over pieces from con trails.