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African wave 99L may develop; Felicia threatens Hawaii; record rains from Morakot

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:20 PM GMT on August 09, 2009

A strong tropical wave with a high amount of spin moved off the coast of Africa yesterday, and has a good chance of becoming the first named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. The wave was designated 99L by NHC Sunday morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north, but this is not currently interfering with the storm's organization. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along two axes. The storm can now be classified as tropical depression using the satellite-based Dvorak classification technique, but the surface circulation will have to show better definition before 99L can be classified as a tropical depression. Top winds were in the 20 - 30 mph range, as estimated by QuikSCAT and the Dvorak satellite estimates.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of disturbance 99L.

Wind shear is expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, tonight through Tuesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, so conditions favor development. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. The UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS models all develop 99L into a tropical depression 1 - 4 days from now. The dry air of the Saharan Air Layer may become a problem for 99L 2 -4 days from now, as the storm moves slightly north of due west. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 6 days before the storm makes it that far.

The GFS model predicts development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa about 6 - 7 days from now.

Felicia weakens to a tropical storm, still a threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite imagery shows that wind shear is beginning to affect the storm, with strong upper-level winds from the west pushing the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity all to the east side of the center.


Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, though. Wind shear has increased to a moderate to high 20 knots, and is expected to increase further to 30 knots by Monday morning. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should reduce Felicia to tropical depression strength by the time the center reaches the Hawaiian Islands Monday night. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 40% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm when it moves through the islands Monday night, and 40% chance it will be a tropical depression. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 1). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for the Big Island. Felicia or its remnants should bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning Monday morning, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.

Typhoon Morakot hits China
Typhoon Morakot hit China this morning as a tropical storm, lashing the mainland with very heavy rain. Yesterday, Morakot hit Taiwan, dumping up to 80 inches of rain on the island over a 2-day period, according to news reports. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952, so the Typhoon Morakot 2-day totals are some of the highest ever measured in the world. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau. Three are dead and 31 people missing on the island, and Morakot also killed 23 people in the Philippines.

I'll have an update on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3001. java162
the NCH is already talking about the wave behind invest 99. they say " we have a tropical wave monitoring but its what behind it that is the concern"

wow i'm surprised!!!
Quoting Acemmett90:
BArbados wave has 850 vortcity

But it needs 500mb vorticity
TRMM 08/09/09 06:00 vs 08/10/09 06:00

~WEST @ ~9kt?
99L is moving towards 10 knots of shear..and eventually it gets as low as 5 knots...Ideal upper-level winds there.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

But it needs 500mb vorticity
true, it also has 700MB vorticity but its not vertically stacked.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

But it needs 500mb vorticity

it also has 700mb so 500 should come soon
Stormsurge, you live in Mobile
Catch ya later extreme...I'm off for now also..be back later.










1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.





10/1145 UTC 14.3N 24.5W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic



Hello??? Anyone Still here? lol the blog died.. but itll pick up once convection comes back
Here the dvork
3012. fmbill
Good morning all. Just popped in to see how everyone is doing. I'm prepping for a CEMP class this week so I'll be hit-n-miss.

Regarding the wave...the radar loop shows the circulation nicely.

Quoting Acemmett90:
BArbados wave has 850 vortcity


3014. cg2916
Yes, Alcoast
Quoting Acemmett90:
Here the dvork

this thing anit going away that quickly boy people just need to be patiant lol
Dry Air is what's ripping into the core 99L

ECMWF may be on to something with the wave behind.
From StormWs blog, great read

The main feature this morning in the Tropical Atlantic remains 99L. Current satellite loop imagery indicates convection has diminished with this system. However, satellite loop imagery also would indicate that vorticity is well established and a little more symmetric. Close up satellite loop imagery from CIRA RAMMB may also show that the COC (Center Of Circulation) may be trying to reform slightly further south of the center depicted in the latest Quikscat pass.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Yes, Alcoast
welcome neighbor. Fowl River here.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Dry Air is what's ripping into the core 99L

ECMWF may be on to something with the wave behind.


that will change once 99L gets further west
Station 13001
Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Atlantic
Location: 11.49N 23W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 10 Aug 2009 09:00:00 UTC
Winds: W (280°) at 13.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in
Air Temperature: 79.0 F
Water Temperature: 80.8 F
Quoting Acemmett90:

this thing anit going away that quickly boy people just need to be patiant lol

As StormW said in his blog a TCFA has been issued here it is:

WTNT 21 KNGU 100600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 100600Z AUG 09//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7N 24.2W TO 15.6N 28.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 100600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 24.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OR CANCELLED BY 110600Z.
//
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Station 13001
Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Atlantic
Location: 11.49N 23W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 10 Aug 2009 09:00:00 UTC
Winds: W (280°) at 13.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in
Air Temperature: 79.0 F
Water Temperature: 80.8 F

it becuase its moving away from that bouy
Thanks Alcoast, I live in Semmes. Were you here during Fredric in 79?
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

As StormW said in his blog a TCFA has been issued here it is:

WTNT 21 KNGU 100600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 100600Z AUG 09//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7N 24.2W TO 15.6N 28.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 100600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 24.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OR CANCELLED BY 110600Z.
//

ok
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
From StormWs blog, great read

The main feature this morning in the Tropical Atlantic remains 99L. Current satellite loop imagery indicates convection has diminished with this system. However, satellite loop imagery also would indicate that vorticity is well established and a little more symmetric. Close up satellite loop imagery from CIRA RAMMB may also show that the COC (Center Of Circulation) may be trying to reform slightly further south of the center depicted in the latest Quikscat pass.

It is very possible that it is relocating

Look at the burst of convection on the south side:
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


that will change once 99L gets further west


99L LLC structure is Great ... However it just needs to build convection .. its already a spiral shape

Dozens dead, hundreds missing in Asia storms

(AP) Two typhoons in Asia have killed dozens of people, left hundreds missing and forced nearly 1 million people to flee to safety, officials and reports said Monday.

In Taiwan, an estimated 400 people are unaccounted for after a mudslide spawned by Typhoon Morakot struck their isolated mountain village, a police official said, and a newspaper quoted a resident as saying as many as 600 were buried.

In Japan, meanwhile, Typhoon Etau slammed into the west coast Monday. Twelve people were killed in raging floodwaters and landslides, and 10 others were missing, police said.

More...
Link
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks Alcoast, I live in Semmes. Were you here during Fredric in 79?


Same here I live in Semmes. I was here in 79 during Fred.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks Alcoast, I live in Semmes. Were you here during Fredric in 79?
No, wife was. I lived in on the MS coast in Gpt. Moved here 7 years ago
Claims, Do you have a gut feeling were in for one this year? Mobile hasnt been directly hit with a cat 3 since Fredric?
Many seem to forget that Bertha took 3 days to develop last season after being declared an invest. Fay and Dolly took a week

These systems dont develop rapidly very often, they take time.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Claims, Do you have a gut feeling were in for one this year? Mobile hasnt been directly hit with a cat 3 since Fredric?


I have that feeling...We have dodged the bullet so many times in the past 10 years as far as a direct hit...
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Many seem to forget that Bertha took 3 days to develop last season after being declared an invest. Fay and Dolly took a week

These systems dont develop rapidly very often, they take time.

agreed people just need to be patiant
Quoting stormsurge39:
Claims, Do you have a gut feeling were in for one this year? Mobile hasnt been directly hit with a cat 3 since Fredric?
Stormsurge, Do you or claims have msn mess.? I would like to add ya'll. During hurricanes I can't be on the blogs often due to fire dept. responsibilities.
3037. fmbill
Thanks for the synopsis, Storm.

I started some precautionary notifications this morning to our department directors (esp. Public Works) that we may be looking at an elevated threat to our area (Central Florida) in the next few weeks.
T-minus ? hours until 0,0,0 condition changes?

96

Sure enjoyed it while it lasted, though! :)
I really hope the GFS long range is wrong. Two back to back storms/hurricanes here in the Lesser Antilles could cause catastrophic damage...
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Stormsurge, Do you or claims have msn mess.? I would like to add ya'll. During hurricanes I can't be on the blogs often due to fire dept. responsibilities.


I don't. All I have is a g-mail account.
3041. Prgal
Quoting stormdude77:
I really hope the GFS long range is wrong. Two back to back storms/hurricanes here in the Lesser Antilles could cause catastrophic damage...

Hi stormdude! Can you post the link to the GFS long range? Thanks!
I saw a GFS run yesterday that looked like the wave behind 99L comes right up Mobile bay as hurricane Bill by Aug 24th or 25th. Although everyone talks like u cant rely on them! Lets hope it doesnt happen!!
99L's going through its first 'Death Row' phase (as coined by Ike last year) It will fire back up, then diminish even if it gets named.
Quoting claimsadjuster:


I don't. All I have is a g-mail account.
well keep in touch after a storm at msgambler3435@yahoo.com
Gulf Waters Are Hottt

3046. java162
Quoting stormdude77:
I really hope the GFS long range is wrong. Two back to back storms/hurricanes here in the Lesser Antilles could cause catastrophic damage...


i wouldn't mind one. i live in dominica and have never been in any seriouis storms. dean wasn't bad, just the rain
Quoting fmbill:
Thanks for the synopsis, Storm.

I started some precautionary notifications this morning to our department directors (esp. Public Works) that we may be looking at an elevated threat to our area (Central Florida) in the next few weeks.


the situation is that alarming, huh?
Ok, Alcoast
Latest weekly NHC SST


Click on image to view original size in a new window



Quoting WeatherStudent:


the situation is that alarming, huh?


It is hurricane season and it is Florida, not that alarming.
good morning, guys, on a serious note, the gfs wants to declare a flow blown out and full fledhe war on the us later on this week into next week.
3052. 7544
Quoting Prgal:

Hi stormdude! Can you post the link to the GFS long range? Thanks!


heres the 06 if you like

Link
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
Quoting java162:


i wouldn't mind one. i live in dominica and have never been in any seriouis storms. dean wasn't bad, just the rain

You should have seen dean here. No power for about 3 weeks.
3055. Prgal
Quoting 7544:


heres the 06 if you like

Link

Thank you!
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


It is hurricane season and it is Florida, not that alarming.


Oh no ... Kill me Please.. WS is Back..
This link by JRRP is back by popular demand!
Link
3058. java162
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

You should have seen dean here. No power for about 3 weeks.


where?
Quoting java162:


i wouldn't mind one. i live in dominica and have never been in any seriouis storms. dean wasn't bad, just the rain


Ivan, Emily and Dean caused damage here in Barbados
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda


Same as 2003..
Quoting java162:


where?


He's in the Cayman Islands
3062. Prgal
Wow, the 06 has two systems hitting PR within six days next week. I really hope its wrong!
Quoting stormdude77:


He's in the Cayman Islands

I'm close to there. I'm in Jamaica.
Quoting sammywammybamy:

SAL is diffinaly affecting it
That's the problem with people who have never been through a storm. The ignorance of saying " I wouldn't mind going through one". Let me tell you, it isn't any fun. I'm sure there are plenty here that will agree with everything I'm saying. It is much safer to watch it on TV.
How many storms, in their genesis, would be picked up by a Cape Verde radar station?
I'm surprised shipping folks from multiple countries wouldn't go in on some cooperative agreement, if its Atlantic reception was significant.
Ouch @ 300




Double Ouch @ 384



3071. java162
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I'm close to there. I'm in Jamaica.


well i'm all the way in the lesser antilies on the small is land of dominica. i realy want to see the full force of a hurricane at least once in my life
3072. Melagoo


LOOK at the one behind 99L ...The NEXT ONE!

3075. Prgal
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
That's the problem with people who have never been through a storm. The ignorance of saying " I wouldn't mind going through one". Let me tell you, it isn't any fun. I'm sure there are plenty here that will agree with everything I'm saying. It is much safer to watch it on TV.

I agree 100%.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Ouch @ 300




Double Ouch @ 384




i hope the gfs is its usuel self because that would suck if it happend
Thanks for the update Storm! :)
The 'Bill' wave is moving off Africa, the one that the model's develop into a monster and have rammed it into New York, Tampa, and New Orleans and constantly switching every model run. Soon the GFS will have a sudden grudge towards Galveston soon.
Quoting java162:


well i'm all the way in the lesser antilies on the small is land of dominica. i realy want to see the full force of a hurricane at least once in my life

NO you dont
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The 'Bill' wave is moving off Africa, the one that the model's develop into a monster and have rammed it into New York, Tampa, and New Orleans and constantly switching every model run. Soon the GFS will have a sudden grudge towards Galveston soon.
Poor People. First Ike, now Bill.
99L Convection Refiring...

Quoting Melagoo:


LOOK at the one behind 99L ...The NEXT ONE!

that is supposedly "Bill" according to the GFS and a couple more models
Quoting WeatherStudent:
good morning, guys, on a serious note, the gfs wants to declare a flow blown out and full fledhe war on the us later on this week into next week.

"Why is greenpeace trying to save the oceans, when the oceans are trying to kill us?" LOL
Here's a nice story about Punta Gorda five years after Hurricane Charley. I visit this little town a few times a year and its amazing how you can't even tell a storm ever hit. They've really cleaned the place up and improved on what was there.

Link
THEY need to rename the GFS the BULL model lol
3086. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The 'Bill' wave is moving off Africa, the one that the model's develop into a monster and have rammed it into New York, Tampa, and New Orleans and constantly switching every model run. Soon the GFS will have a sudden grudge towards Galveston soon.


I think what it's picking up on is near 0E.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Ouch @ 300




Double Ouch @ 384





Great! An Andrew and a Georges all combined in one. :(

Quoting Melagoo:


LOOK at the one behind 99L ...The NEXT ONE!



That is the wave that the model's are all developing. If 99L doesn't become Ana that most likely will.. and the model's don't just dissipate it either, GFS making it a full blown monster.
@Java,

Making yourself informed and useful, will put you in the path of such a beast. But be ready when it arrives.
Melagoo, There is an updated link that shows the second wave now interacting with 99LLink
Quoting Acemmett90:

i hope the gfs is its usuel self because that would suck if it happend


Purely speculation at those lead times. More a wake-up call to remind people peak season is approaching and it IS possible. More-so with the current pattern taking shape.
Oh yeah, I haven't been on lately because my house got hit by lightning and it ruined everything electrical. So much for those surge protectors! :)
Hopefully this year we wont get a mutant storm like Ike...500 miles in diameter, but a cat 3 or 4....
I'm planning a Labor Day barbeque. Anyone have a link to the 672hr GFS??


Quoting IKE:


I think what's picking up on is near 0E.


You might be right.. at what time frame does the models about move the wave off Africa? I don't have links right now on my computer to the models.
tropical wave near 45W this morning will be entering into the SE Gulf of Mexico by late next weekend. GFS has been hinting at some development with this wave as it reaches the Gulf with synoptic scale features showing downstream upper level high pressure positioned over the central and eastern Gulf supporting a favorable upper air environment.
Check this site out, it lists all the models forecasting 99L (and the new ones) btw looks like Florida is in danger:

Link
Quoting Prgal:

I agree 100%.
Guess I should get off my soapbox now. Just bothers me when people talk like that. Spent 2 weeks searching for survivers in NOLA after Katrina. I know what storms can do and don't even want a td to flood anyone out. back to lurking!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You might be right.. at what time frame does the models about move the wave off Africa? I don't have links right now on my computer to the models.


No time frame wise it is the wave that will emerge off Africa tonight

GFS has the 2nd low within 48 hours

the wave at 0E wont even be off the coast at that point
the global models especially the GFS develop the next 2 waves coming off of Africa with the next wave coming off at a very low latitude and tracking almost due west and growing into a strong tropical cyclone as it approaches the Leeward Islands in 9-13 days. We shall see…this is the most guidance action to date for the 2009 season
Quoting canesrule1:
that is supposedly "Bill" according to the GFS and a couple more models


It's not bill if Ana is never named. 99L is being choked to death by dust, as I predicted two nights ago and last night. Someone put me on ignore for saying that and everyone else called me "dead wrong". Riiiiight.
3102. java162
Quoting Acemmett90:

NO you dont


yes i do and hopefully the gfs model is correct...lol
already 3100 posts in less than 24 hours, probably a record!
yup looking at the 0Z run it is the wave that is coming off Africa, not the wave at 0E that the GFS turns into "Bill"
3105. jscs
Thanks for posting this. I evacuated to Punta Gorda from NOLA during Katrina and Rita (while Rita passed through Punta Gorda). Amazing people. Was the perfect place to spend an evacuation watching communities torn apart.

Quoting CaneWarning:
Here's a nice story about Punta Gorda five years after Hurricane Charley. I visit this little town a few times a year and its amazing how you can't even tell a storm ever hit. They've really cleaned the place up and improved on what was there.

Link
3106. 7544
its bill the gfs shows over fla in the 06 correct ?
While we are in an El Nino period…such periods have been very unkind to the Gulf coast and there is growing evidence that El Nino does not as greatly affect Gulf of Mexico activity as much as the deep eastern Atlantic.
Quoting java162:


yes i do and hopefully the gfs model is correct...lol

wow people one this blog are sick in the mind why would you want to go though a cat 5 on such a small island why would anyone want to wish that ophon themselfs
Quoting RitaEvac:
tropical wave near 45W this morning will be entering into the SE Gulf of Mexico by late next weekend. GFS has been hinting at some development with this wave as it reaches the Gulf with synoptic scale features showing downstream upper level high pressure positioned over the central and eastern Gulf supporting a favorable upper air environment.


Definately keeping an eye on this.
WHAT???!!!!

Now Monster Bill is plunging toward Wilmington, NC...I live 2 hour's from the beach guys....I'm running for my life if it does that.

But Hurricane Monster Claudette could aim for Tampa.
3111. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You might be right.. at what time frame does the models about move the wave off Africa? I don't have links right now on my computer to the models.


00Z ECMWF......puts it south of the Cape Verdes on Saturday....5 days from now.
Quoting winter123:


It's not bill if Ana is never named. 99L is being choked to death by dust, as I predicted two nights ago and last night. Someone put me on ignore for saying that and everyone else called me "dead wrong". Riiiiight.
well i wouldn't say its choking to death because that's not its only problem, it's just going through one of an invests stages, very typical, but yes i do have to agree with u.
Careful what you wish for. This is a different time. Hurricanes are bigger and stronger than i have ever seen in the recent years. Imagine an andrew the size of Ike, but same strength as andrew.
Quoting BobinTampa:
I'm planning a Labor Day barbeque. Anyone have a link to the 672hr GFS??


Imagine the look of a 672 hr Spaghetti plot...
Quoting IKE:


00Z ECMWF......puts it south of the Cape Verdes on Friday....5 days from now.


morning ike, is that our monster in disguise?
Wow here come the GOM wishcasters..

i am eating my crow for 99L..

Quoting mobilegirl81:
Careful what you wish for. This is a different time. Hurricanes are bigger and stronger than i have ever seen in the recent years. Imagine an andrew the size of Ike, but same strength as andrew.

it would be worse than katrina so please people do not wish thing like this on your selfs
Quoting seminolesfan:
Imagine the look of a 672 hr Spaghetti plot...
there would be 78 hurricanes roaming the atlantic!
Quoting java162:


yes i do and hopefully the gfs model is correct...lol


Quoting canesrule1:
there would be 78 hurricanes roaming the atlantic!

at that point i would by a space ship and get the heck out of the us lol
3124. java162
Quoting Acemmett90:

wow people one this blog are sick in the mind why would you want to go though a cat 5 on such a small island why would anyone want to wish that ophon themselfs


i guess it will be fun. looking at all the destruction and the power of nature live!! what could be beter than that???
The storms haven't even formed yet, but people are making predictions based on a model that is notoriously inaccurate for TC paths even at short lead times? Come on, people.

Throw darts at the PDF map of the Atlantic basin and your forecasts will have the same skill as the long-range GFS.
dry air impacted 99L a little bit, only slowing development

Quoting sammywammybamy:



he wished a cat5 on himself
Not wishing. Just being realistic. All of the storms that have hit in the recent, except maybe dolly were annular hurricanes.
3130. 7544
so far if the gfs is right we should see 7 stroms before the end of augest take your pick
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Not wishing. Just being realistic. All of the storms that have hit in the recent, except maybe dolly were annular hurricanes.


Um none of them were annular
Quoting java162:


i guess it will be fun. looking at all the destruction and the power of nature live!! what could be beter than that???



You do realize that Hundreds of People Die in Cat 3's + ...

You are a Sick Twisted Fool..

Enjoy a Nice Long Stay at my Ignore List
Quoting IKE:


00Z ECMWF......puts it south of the Cape Verdes on Friday....5 days from now.


Hmmm, that's interesting. The GFS has been showing the next wave becoming a closed low south of Cape Verde in as little as 60 hours. I wonder if the two models are picking up on different waves, or if their timing is that far off.
Quoting java162:


i guess it will be fun. looking at all the destruction and the power of nature live!! what could be beter than that???

ive been though frances and willma and i have to say heck no it anit that fun ask the people on here who went through katrina and andrew and even ike and gustuv
Sorry, are'nt annular hurricanes characterized by having a very large eye.
StormW,

Thanks for the update. GFS caffeine? lol

I think that for a couple of years recently the GFS was fairly accurate, no?
morning all...looks like the Atl is cooking now...any word on the wave going through the islands right now?? looks to be blowing up a little... didn't know if it was anything or not..
Quoting java162:


i guess it will be fun. looking at all the destruction and the power of nature live!! what could be beter than that???

Life Jacket-$35
Digital Camcorder-$499
Gallon Sized Ziploc Bags-$4
Living-Priceless
Quoting Acemmett90:

ive been though frances and willma and i have to say heck no it anit that fun ask the people on here who went through katrina and andrew and even ike and gustuv

oh wait i can't read your post back CUZ YOUR ON MY IGNORE LIST
Some people are pretty sure of themselves... If you expected 99L to jump to a hurricane as soon as it came off Africa I would call you a fool... It takes time... Saying "haha, I told ya so" will only come back to bite you later.
all the other models other than the ECMWF take the wave that is coming off Africa as the one that becomes the strong system, not the wave at 0E
3142. fmbill
Looks like the 12z NAM takes Ana to PR, also.
Quoting Acemmett90:

ive been though frances and willma and i have to say heck no it anit that fun ask the people on here who went through katrina and andrew and even ike and gustuv
Better yet, I went through Camille and Katrina. No they are not fun
What is the normal steering pattern for August systems?
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Not wishing. Just being realistic. All of the storms that have hit in the recent, except maybe dolly were annular hurricanes.


Predicting the strength of a hurricane that hasn't even formed yet is not what I would call "realistic".
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Better yet, I went through Cammile and Katrina. No they are not fun

Some people are so sick in the mind it is not even funny he needs to get help
3148. P451
Last 21 hours 99L



I guess 99L is paving the way for the next two waves to really develop. Everyone seems more concerned with them now.
Quoting fmbill:
Looks like the 12z NAM takes Ana to PR, also.


That isn't Ana, it is one of the tropical wave near 40W. The models have been latching on this and expect it to reinvigorate in the gulf.
Hey, bajelayman...how's the weather?

Thunderstorms here now again
well...Its happened...
3152. java162
Quoting sammywammybamy:



You do realize that Hundreds of People Die in Cat 3's + ...

You are a Sick Twisted Fool..

Enjoy a Nice Long Stay at my Ignore List
Quoting sammywammybamy:



You do realize that Hundreds of People Die in Cat 3's + ...

You are a Sick Twisted Fool..

Enjoy a Nice Long Stay at my Ignore List


dede... calm down... i was just kidding... aalthough i would like to see a storm up close with my own eyes
3153. 7544
Quoting fmbill:
Looks like the 12z NAM takes Ana to PR, also.


wait thats not 99l right it cant get there that fast but the one by 45 w could which wave is taht tia
3154. WAHA
P451, thanks for the loop!
Quoting java162:


well i'm all the way in the lesser antilies on the small is land of dominica. i realy want to see the full force of a hurricane at least once in my life
remember a hurricane can strip the land of everything including all life so that nothing remains but the dirt and the water it has happen before it will happen again just a matter of time a cat 5 passing over your small island will leave nothing behind not even you be careful what you wish for
3124. Have you ever been through a hurricane? I mean... like had your power knocked out for several days, and seen people's homes and posessions get destroyed? It isn't fun.

Link to something that may help you understand

Don't bother replying back to this post, btw. Just read and learn.
Quoting java162:


well i'm all the way in the lesser antilies on the small is land of dominica. i realy want to see the full force of a hurricane at least once in my life

Your comment makes me think of the calls people were making from the Bolivar penninsula to their loved ones just before they were swept away by the storm surge. One lady called her sister and said "I've made a terrible mistake." She was one of the many who did not survive the storm. On an island I would think you would need to prepare well ahead and leave early if evacuation is possible. Otherwise get to the best shelter possible but I surely would have a plan in place with all I needed to implement it well befoe the storm arrived.
3159. fmbill
Are you sure? It shows a weak "something" over PR in 78 hours. That couldn't be what's approaching Martinique right now. so it must be 99L. (?)
3161. Prgal
Quoting java162:


dede... calm down... i was just kidding... aalthough i would like to see a storm up close with my own eyes


Java, I had the same thoughts when I was around 15 years old and I have been through 4 strong hurricanes (I am over 40 now)...and I tell you, there is nothing fun about it.
Weather research center in houston, tx is calling for 7 storms and 4 hurricanes with louisiana to alabama seeing the highest probability of a strike this year at 70%.
3164. java162
Quoting Prgal:


Java, I had the same thoughts when I was around 15 years old and I have been through 4 strong hurricanes (I am over 40 now)...and I tell you, there is nothing fun about it.


well i'm 17 and i would like to see for myself.. lol
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Weather research center in houston, tx is calling for 7 storms and 4 hurricanes with louisiana to alabama seeing the highest probability of a strike this year at 70%.


Seriously, do we have a big target over us or what?? I think we deserve a break...lol.
A PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT



For special visitors to Doc Masters Blog...like java162
3167. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


That isn't Ana, it is one of the tropical wave near 40W. The models have been latching on this and expect it to reinvigorate in the gulf.


You are correct met.
3168. Michfan
Good morning everyone. I see this weekend the blog was quite busy.
3170. yamil20
Quoting java162:


i guess it will be fun. looking at all the destruction and the power of nature live!! what could be beter than that???


It is not fun, I hope that god takes care of your sick mind, please have a little of humanity and think about all the people and kids that dies due to these storms. God will take care of you, but you are on IGNORED




It should be interesting today. The second wave is sending more moisture into 99L.
Quoting alaina1085:


Seriously, do we have a big target over us or what?? I think we deserve a break...lol.

You do deserve a break - enough is enough! I'm hoping the folks who want 0 0 0 are right!
3173. IKE
Quoting fmbill:
Are you sure? It shows a weak "something" over PR in 78 hours. That couldn't be what's approaching Martinique right now. so it must be 99L. (?)


No. It's the spin near 45W.
steering pattern seems to be more favorable for cental gulf coast strikes between late august and late september.
Will 99L become a TS?

A. Yes
B. No

I vote A Yes.
Quoting java162:


well i'm 17 and i would like to see for myself.. lol


I know how you feel, I was the same way when I was your age :) You dont wish destruction on anyone, your just curious and want to experience that rush of the storm. Its only natural for us weather enthusiasts.
3167. IKE 2:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2009
Quoting futuremet:


That isn't Ana, it is one of the tropical wave near 40W. The models have been latching on this and expect it to reinvigorate in the gulf.


You are correct met.


what is that around 60W then?? just a tropical wave??
Quoting StormW:


alaina,

There is really no set "normal" steering pattern. Generally, on average per se, we tend to get the longer tracked, Cape Verde systems, basically starting on a westward track, eventually WNW, then NW, then back out to sea. However, this all depends on whether or not we are in a Positive or Negative NAO phase, the strength of the A/B high, and it's orientation.


Thanks Storm.
Futuremet
i notice a vigorous circulation to the east of barbados associated with a tropical wave. the winds here in st lucia is very calm while it is from the north in barbados at 6mph. is some closed low trying to form?
3180. IKE
Quoting Nolehead:
3167. IKE 2:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2009
Quoting futuremet:


That isn't Ana, it is one of the tropical wave near 40W. The models have been latching on this and expect it to reinvigorate in the gulf.


You are correct met.


what is that around 60W then?? just a tropical wave??


Looks like the NAM takes that into Belize/Yucatan as a wave.

The spin that you can clearly see near 45W is void of convection, for now. It should get going as it heads west to WNW.

That wave may be GOM bound by next weekend.
3182. JRRP
Quoting fmbill:
Are you sure? It shows a weak "something" over PR in 78 hours. That couldn't be what's approaching Martinique right now. so it must be 99L. (?)

is the wave near 15n 45w....
GFS is showing something like that as well
3183. 7544
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Will 99L become a TS?

A. Yes
B. No

I vote A Yes.


abeeter poll will be who gets the name anna first

the wave at 40 w
99l
or the wave behind 99l

now theres a challenge hehe
3184. java162
Quoting yamil20:


It is not fun, I hope that god takes care of your sick mind, please have a little of humanity and think about all the people and kids that dies due to these storms. God will take care of you, but you are on IGNORED






are you people this shallow minded?? i thought you country promoted freedom of speech??
When I was 17, I hunted down my first hurricane. It was September 1975 and her name was Eloise.

She was a Cat III. I had to hold onto a light pole because she was powerful enough to lift me off my feet.

She was a dawn storm and her pink eye passed just to the east of my position.

The experience was both terrifying and compelling...but not terrifying enough for me to stop hunting these systems down.

I'll be there for the next landfall...and if you're a Doc Masters blogger, you will be there, too with me and the team.

quite frankly the wind field in this quikscat is more impressive than 99L imo.
3187. WxLogic
Quoting futuremet:


That isn't Ana, it is one of the tropical wave near 40W. The models have been latching on this and expect it to reinvigorate in the gulf.


Will be interesting to see how well it does tonight during DMAX. I will not be surprised to see some mid level energy (500MB VORT MAX) materializing in 24 TO 48HR. It will just have to increase the current convective activity it has. Environmental conditions around it are good enough for minor development.
Quoting IKE:


Looks like the NAM takes that into Belize/Yucatan.

The spin that you can clearly see near 45W is void of convection, for now. It should get going as it heads west to WNW.

That wave may be GOM bound by next weekend.


ike, next week is shapping up to be a rather devestating one, so we'll see what happens.
3190. Prgal
Quoting java162:


are you people this shallow minded?? i thought you country promoted freedom of speech??

Where are you from Java?
3191. juniort
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
remember a hurricane can strip the land of everything including all life so that nothing remains but the dirt and the water it has happen before it will happen again just a matter of time a cat 5 passing over your small island will leave nothing behind not even you be careful what you wish for


I also agree, a hurricne is a very dangerous thing, only 2 years ago hurricane deane passed close to Dominica when I was there, it was not a pleasant experience, as was said be careful what you wish for...you might actually get it
thanks Ike...great then, looks to be a swell heading towards the GOM then...Surfmom will be happy.."just wanting surf not destruction" just clarifing my position...lol
cycloneoz

Eloise was my first hurricane too. She is what has made me follow hurricanes ever since. I have great respect for the destructive forces but am always amazed by the power of nature.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:


Is that a closed circulation?

Wow...impressive windfield, too.
So is the low emerging off Africa right now the one the models all develop or is it the one behind it?
3196. IKE
Wave near 45W is worth watching...large circulation.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Is that a closed circulation?

Wow...impressive windfield, too.

Looks like it
You Guys Have Already RIP'D 99L... And Now moving to a Disorganized UnImpressive Wave in the Carribean????

WOW..

BTW i live in florida and i think florida will not get hit by a hurricane this year...
Quoting stoormfury:
Futuremet
i notice a vigorous circulation to the east of barbados associated with a tropical wave. the winds here in st lucia is very calm while it is from the north in barbados at 6mph. is some closed low trying to form?


Yes, I noticed that. Convection is also firing around that circulation. Winds here are light and out of the NW
wow
oz your right this thing is blowing up
3201. juniort
We have been having rain and thunderstorms this morning....love it
Quoting Prgal:

Where are you from Java?


He said he's from Dominica
Hey Java - what people are trying to do is give you the benefit of their actual and horrifying experiences with hurricanes and the devastation they bring. Even reasonable minds can have different opinions but fundamentally not a one of us would feel very good about it if you got hurt - or if you and your neighbors sufferred from a major storm hit.
3204. IKE
No one has RIP-ed 99L. We can watch multiple things at the same time.

45W is just an interesting feature. San Juan mets talk a lot about it. Tallahassee met and New Orleans met talk about it too.
Some real good vorticity now with 99l...

850mb vort.

i am a gulf coast dweller, i enjoy going and being thru hurriance, i know and understand how they react and what not and when to leave, but Ike made me think twice because my daughter got to see what they were made of. She didn't like it one bit. so things can change for the next cane. you name any storm be it Dust Storm in west TX, seen it, Tornados, seen it, just Hurriance are total awesome force of nature no one can or should under estimate.
3207. WAHA
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Will 99L become a TS?

A. Yes
B. No

I vote A Yes.

Ditto
Barbados now reporting a N wind. It looks like a surface low is forming with the AOI just East of there and convection has been building all morning.

If this continues it will likely get the attention of the NHC later today.

3209. 7544
hmm but lots of dry air all over the atlantic but not strong as of now but could make things rocky for anyone of these systems trying to form
3210. Prgal
Quoting stormdude77:


He said he's from Dominica

Thank you stormdude :-)
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Weather research center in houston, tx is calling for 7 storms and 4 hurricanes with louisiana to alabama seeing the highest probability of a strike this year at 70%.

shhhhhh don't say that!!!
3212. fmbill
Quoting kmanislander:
Barbados now reporting a N wind. It looks like a surface low is forming with the AOI just East of there and convection has been building all morning.

If this continues it will likely get the attention of the NHC later today.



Uh oh...before you know it,someone will bring up the word "Hebert". LOL!
Quoting juniort:
We have been having rain and thunderstorms this morning....love it

it looks better than 99L right now
Quoting stoormfury:
Futuremet
i notice a vigorous circulation to the east of barbados associated with a tropical wave. the winds here in st lucia is very calm while it is from the north in barbados at 6mph. is some closed low trying to form?


Well, not exactly.

It is an ill-mid-low-level circulation. This morning's quickscat shows an asymmetric circulation and it had typical structure of an inverted trough. The 850mb vorticity has been fairly inconsitent--waning and increasing periodically. It is nothing imminent at the moment.

Martinique radar...pretty good presentation. Good E-NE-N-NW wind flow, but like a of west winds.
Quoting fmbill:


Uh oh...before you know it,sopmeone will bring up the word "Hebert". LOL!


Quoting IKE:
No one has RIP-ed 99L. We can watch multiple things at the same time.

45W is just an interesting feature. San Juan mets talk a lot about it. Tallahassee met and New Orleans met talk about it too.



Ike .. I have a Bad Feeling about ...99L...And the Bill wave..

and look at that huge wave ... its the 2nd wave thats behind the 1st one coming off


i think the wave coming off will track into the carribean then ito the gulf

99l will problay (Amatuer judging by steering and Models) miss the islands.. but not recurve out to sea..... Florida Maybe?
Quoting fmbill:


Uh oh...before you know it,someone will bring up the word "Hebert". LOL!


LOL. Don't go there !
Quoting Acemmett90:

NO you dont

I concur. David blew thru here back in 77 or78 and took the roof off every house in Dominica. An Awful sight. Andrew did a similar thing to some friends in Florida. No light no water no house for many folks. It is better to imagine and be prepared.
Morning Everyone!

Checking in and see over three thousand posts...must be SOMETHING out there...
Interesting paragraph from the San Juana AFD this morning:

FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A NOTED SHIFT
IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS APPARENT AS NORTHERN MODULATION OF ITCZ
CONTINUED...WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WAVE BASED ON LATED GUIDANCE FROM THE HURRICANE
CENTER HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SO LOOK LIKES THE ATLANTIC...IS SLOWLY COMING
ALIVE. AS THE ITCZ OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD...AS SUGGESTED BY BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH FALLS
IN PLACE WITH THE TIME OF THE SEASON WHEN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC STARTS
TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE. WILL HOWEVER HAVE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THINGS
UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.
'curiosity' is the key word as to why we feel the need to 'experience' storms like these. it's just natural for a person to feel that way. i think that's why we're all here........talking about the same thing and sharing our experiences....it's compelling, it's exciting and at the same time scary.
Quoting WAHA:

Ditto


C.

It Remains an Invest for the next 12 hours..

24 hours later it Becomes a Td

Then in 48 hours Later

TS Ana

Good Morning all, Conditions have been some what wet in Barbados lol........More like heavyrain & thunder storms. We had a short lull but its back with us again.. I had to dump half of my 10,000 gal rain water tank already if not the court yard will flood into the house. (not cool)

Have to say the TW convection has really fired and expanded nice in the last 2hrs...
3224. WAHA
Quoting sammywammybamy:



Ike .. I have a Bad Feeling about ...99L...And the Bill wave..

and look at that huge wave ... its the 2nd wave thats behind the 1st one coming off


i think the wave coming off will track into the carribean then ito the gulf

99l will problay (Amatuer judging by steering and Models) miss the islands.. but not recurve out to sea..... Florida Maybe?

Hope that doesn't happen. You live in FL?
Quoting melwerle:
Morning Everyone!

Checking in and see over three thousand posts...must be SOMETHING out there...


Actually not much for the number of posts... just a lot of supposition so far of what may happen. We don't even have Ana yet, and some people are already up to Claudette.
Well we already had our "tunnels" discussion this year - why not Herbert too and get them out of the way?
Quoting Acemmett90:

it looks better than 99L right now


No, it is ill-vertically stacked and the surface circulation is not as defined. Convection comes and goes; this system has been doing this for the past five days.

Quoting fmbill:


Uh oh...before you know it,someone will bring up the word "Hebert". LOL!


Ahh but what most people forget is that herbert himself said that the boxes and the theory behiend them only seemed to apply to Major Hurricanes... I doubt this wave or 99L will come even close to that status.
Quoting futuremet:


No, it is ill-vertically stacked and the surface circulation is not as defined. Convection comes and goes; this system has been doing this for the past five days.


good point

thank Futuremet i will continue to monitor the situation
Quoting futuremet:


Well, not exactly.

It is an ill-mid-low-level circulation. This morning's quickscat shows an asymmetric circulation and it had typical structure of an inverted trough. The 850mb vorticity has been fairly inconsitent--waning and increasing periodically. It is nothing imminent at the moment.

Martinique radar...pretty good presentation. Good E-NE-N-NW wind flow, but like a of west winds.


The area I am referring to is immediately East of Barbados and was missed by QS this morning.
Quoting kmanislander:


LOL. Don't go there !




too early for pin hole too?
What do you guys think about the TCFA that was issued for 99l
Morning Orca - reading back on the posts...

If there is one thing I've learned after the three years I've been watching this blog, it's that you can't tell what is going to happen or where it's going to go when it's this far out. Always a wait and see.
Quoting kmanislander:


The area I am referring to is immediately East of Barbados and was missed by QS this morning.

Noaa needs to get the damn upgrade working for the Quickscat
Morning Kman,

What do you make of the feature near 45? I didn't notice that at all until I took a look at the visible this morning....and it became quite obvious. Not much in the way of convection but there is a fair vorticy reading with it
Educated guess on my part... 99 is dead in about 48-72 hours... and then we worry about the wave behind it.
Quoting WAHA:

Hope that doesn't happen. You live in FL?


Problay Ana will Recurve ... ...

4 Possible Outcomes..

1.**POOF**
2.Recurve
3.East Coast
4. Hits PR



And Yes i live in South Florida..

and the last strong hurricane we got was Wilma

which by the way Was Scary ... and knocked out power for 8+ days
3240. Buhdog
I'm sorry....but Heberts box is not vodoo or bullcrap. It is an actual tool you can use to help decipher if a storm in that are has an increased tendancy to go in a certain direction! Is it gospel? no.... does it have an actual purpose and can it be used in tandem with models and forecasts... i think so. How many times has a major cv cane gone thru one on the way to south florida? almost all of them...this is not a coincidence!
Notable Cape Verde Storms formed from tropical waves & historical position at time of first advisory (TD Status)
(per Wikipedia - Cat 5 - Recent History)
I believe I have these right, please correct any inaccuracies.

Hurricane Hugo (Sept 1989) 13.2N 20.0W
Hurricane Andrew (Aug 1992) 10.8N 35.5W
Hurricane Isabel (Sept 2003) 14.0N 34.0W
Hurricane Ivan (Sept 2004) 9.8N 29.4W
Hurricane Emily (July 2005) 10.8N 42.9W
Hurricane Dean (Aug 2007) 12.0N 31.6W

Though a cat 4 I am including
Hurricane Ike (Sept 2008) 17.6N 39.5W

Off to work.
3242. WAHA
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually not much for the number of posts... just a lot of supposition so far of what may happen. We don't even have Ana yet, and some people are already up to Claudette.

At most two storms will form in the next ten days
3243. IKE
Quoting WAHA:

Hope that doesn't happen. You live in FL?


Panhandle...
Quoting Acemmett90:

Noaa needs to get the damn upgrade working for the Quickscat

It's not broken, it can't be everywhere at once. It's in a polar orbit.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Problay Ana will Recurve ... ...

4 Possible Outcomes..

1.**POOF**
2.Recurve
3.East Coast
4. Hits PR



And Yes i live in South Florida..

and the last strong hurricane we got was Wilma

which by the way Was Scary ... and knocked out power for 8+ days

where in florida
The GFS has been intent on developing the next wave to come off of Africa after today's wave exits, and each run takes it somewhere in the SE US. No need to mess around and debate a landfall location this far out, but it is definitely appearing that we may have a hurricane approaching the US in the next 15 days.
Quoting kmanislander:


The area I am referring to is immediately East of Barbados and was missed by QS this morning.


I think windsat got it
Alot of folks are like dont say that, dont wish that, its not gonna form, its not coming here "complacency" is a powerful manipulator.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

It's not broken, it can't be everywhere at once. It's in a polar orbit.


Umm yes it is and has been for quite sometime.. its working at about 50% coverage
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
The GFS has been intent on developing the next wave to come off of Africa after today's wave exits, and each run takes it somewhere in the SE US. No need to mess around and debate a landfall location this far out, but it is definitely appearing that we may have a hurricane approaching the US in the next 15 days.


Again the GFS is developing the wave that is on the immediate coast, not the wave after

If you look at the timing, the low appears in about 36 hours south of the CV Islands. The wave at 0E will be nowhere near 20W by then.
3252. WAHA
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Problay Ana will Recurve ... ...

4 Possible Outcomes..

1.**POOF**
2.Recurve
3.East Coast
4. Hits PR



And Yes i live in South Florida..

and the last strong hurricane we got was Wilma

which by the way Was Scary ... and knocked out power for 8+ days

I choose 3. east coast
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Sorry, are'nt annular hurricanes characterized by having a very large eye.
That's only one of the characteristics.

Annular Hurricanes
JOHN A. KNAFF AND JAMES P. KOSSIN
.... annular hurricanes. When compared with the greater population of tropical cyclones in an archive of infrared (IR) tropical cyclone imagery, these storms are distinctly more axisymmetric with circular eyes surrounded by a nearly uniform ring of deep convection and a curious lack of deep convective features outside this ring. Because of this symmetry, these storms have also been referred to as truck tires and doughnuts. This appearance in satellite imagery can persist for days. Accompanying this structure is a nearly constant intensity with an average of 107.6 kt ....
There are some very good illustrative images on page 5 of this PDF.
Actually if you do a Study of Were most WU Tropical Bloggers are Located

The Top 5 States For WU Bloggers

1. FLORIDA
2. TEXAS
3.LOUSIANA
4.ALABAMA
5.MISSISIPI
ummmmmm, why are we following this area of showers and thunderstorms over the Antilles? It is just a flare-up and will be gone when DMIN hits it, forget about it, anyways which is the one with a circle around it?
Quoting swampdawg:
'curiosity' is the key word as to why we feel the need to 'experience' storms like these. it's just natural for a person to feel that way. i think that's why we're all here........talking about the same thing and sharing our experiences....it's compelling, it's exciting and at the same time scary.


Many residents and even some hurricane scientists who experienced the northern eyewall of Andrew reported that the wind gained a "freakish velocity" (Brown 1993). Residents near the center of the storm, reported that around 5:00 a.m., as the eye was coming ashore, the wind reach an deafening roar, "like a freight train running across the roof" (Brown 1993). At this point, many people reported their homes experienced a deep vibration until the structure failed (roof ripped off, walls blew out). Site investigations after the storm reported that even automobiles flew through the air for a short distance. As Andrew's eyewall passed over south Dade County, thousands of residents in panic went from room to room, as sections of their homes were being destroyed. Many residents stayed in hallways, closets, and bathrooms, until conditions improved around 7.00 a.m. on the 24th.

I'm not that curious.
the area at 45w is very interesting. while most are viewing 99l i think this area has more potential to develop than 99L
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Actually if you do a Study of Were most WU Tropical Bloggers are Located

The Top 5 States For WU Bloggers

1. FLORIDA
2. TEXAS
3.LOUSIANA
4.ALABAMA
5.MISSISIPI


The gulf states.. go figure
You forgot the Carols.
The 12Z GFS run should give us a better idea of which Twave it wants to develop ''Bill'' from
Quoting canesrule1:
ummmmmm, why are we following this area of showers and thunderstorms over the Antilles? It is just a flare-up and will be gone when DMIN hits it, forget about it, anyways which is the one with a circle around it?

it has some type of low assicated with it and its projected to get into the GOM


GFS 06Z at 48 hours, clearly you can see that the system it blows up is the one that is coming off Africa tonight
99l if it Surives and doesnt curve
could become a threat to PR , Bahamas , Florida , or The Carolins

Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm yes it is and has been for quite sometime.. its working at about 50% coverage

Really? I guess I haven't been keeping up with it.
3 systems to watch with a fourth coming off of africa couple days ago the nao went positive now look potential in the basin
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Again the GFS is developing the wave that is on the immediate coast, not the wave after

If you look at the timing, the low appears in about 36 hours south of the CV Islands. The wave at 0E will be nowhere near 20W by then.


Your right, the wave that just came off the coastline is the "possible" USA Storm.. It looks good.
Quoting Orcasystems:


The gulf states.. go figure
You forgot the Carols.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Actually if you do a Study of Were most WU Tropical Bloggers are Located

The Top 5 States For WU Bloggers

1. FLORIDA
2. TEXAS
3.LOUSIANA
4.ALABAMA
5.MISSISIPI

What about Sydney Australia??
Quoting canesrule1:
ummmmmm, why are we following this area of showers and thunderstorms over the Antilles? It is just a flare-up and will be gone when DMIN hits it, forget about it, anyways which is the one with a circle around it?


A surface low appears to be forming, dont get upset because others are talking about it
Quoting futuremet:


I think windsat got it


There is something odd about that image. If you look at the purple numbers at the bottom of the image that tells you the time of the pass. I see 20 UTC and later there but we have not even reached that time yet today. Are you sure that is a current image ?.
the area east of barbados continues to grow. one would not expect a west wind recorded in the islands if the circulation is still to the east
Quoting reedzone:


Your right, the wave that just came off the coastline is the "possible" USA Storm.. It looks good.

Is that the one the GFS takes into the Caribbean.
3272. WAHA
Quoting IKE:


Panhandle...

Then you probably have nothing to worry. It will probably hit Southern Carolina
also another point, the steering is weak by the CV Islands, it is obvious by looking at 99L, which came off 2 days ago and is just passing south of the CV Islands now.

The GFS moves the system slowly westward
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Actually if you do a Study of Were most WU Tropical Bloggers are Located

The Top 5 States For WU Bloggers

1. FLORIDA
2. TEXAS
3.LOUSIANA
4.ALABAMA
5.MISSISIPI
Gawd, I do not believe I am jumping in on this.. I have to get to work.

Sammy, how do you come by these numbers?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm yes it is and has been for quite sometime.. its working at about 50% coverage


QuickScat is at 100% of designed coverage. It's on a backup transmitter and will run out of fuel ~2011, but coverage wise no current problems.
Quoting AussieStorm:

What about Sydney Australia??


I'm not sure if the two of you make it into the top 30 :)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


A surface low appears to be forming, dont get upset because others are talking about it
really, sorry, i didn't know there was a surface low forming.
3278. WAHA
Quoting reedzone:


Your right, the wave that just came off the coastline is the "possible" USA Storm.. It looks good.

No, it looks bad for us, good for terrorists.
Quoting stormdude77:
The 12Z GFS run should give us a better idea of which Twave it wants to develop ''Bill'' from
We need to worry about Ana first
San Diego here...still own a house in Savannah though. Only earthquakes for us here.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Gawd, I do not believe I am jumping in on this.. I have to get to work.

Sammy, how do you come by these numbers?


If you go by the members listed in the .kml file that Zoo made for Google Earth ..then he is right.
3282. JRRP
Hurricane Andrew makes landfall in south Florida on 8/24/1992 at 5 AM EDT. This is probably one of the best reports from the Weather Channel ever

THIS IS WHEN JIM CANTORE WASNT BALD



Morning everyone....LOok what enters the bottom right pic at day 9/10

Quoting Orcasystems:


If you go by the members listed in the .kml file that Zoo made for Google Earth ..then he is right.
Thanks Orca
3287. WAHA
Quoting sammywammybamy:
99l if it Surives and doesnt curve
could become a threat to PR , Bahamas , Florida , or The Carolins


Carolinas, definitley.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning everyone....LOok what enters the bottom right pic at day 9/10



That's our wave thats moving off Africa right now. O.o
A Series of Jim Cantore's Forcasts on Andrews Rapid Intensfication

Quoting mikatnight:


Many residents and even some hurricane scientists who experienced the northern eyewall of Andrew reported that the wind gained a "freakish velocity" (Brown 1993). Residents near the center of the storm, reported that around 5:00 a.m., as the eye was coming ashore, the wind reach an deafening roar, "like a freight train running across the roof" (Brown 1993). At this point, many people reported their homes experienced a deep vibration until the structure failed (roof ripped off, walls blew out). Site investigations after the storm reported that even automobiles flew through the air for a short distance. As Andrew's eyewall passed over south Dade County, thousands of residents in panic went from room to room, as sections of their homes were being destroyed. Many residents stayed in hallways, closets, and bathrooms, until conditions improved around 7.00 a.m. on the 24th.

I'm not that curious.


That quote is exactly what happened to my family as we went through the northern eye wall. We had the center bathroom in the house left and that was it. Not fun.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
99l if it Surives and doesnt curve
could become a threat to PR , Bahamas , Florida , or The Carolins


Watch out for Patrat
Quoting KYhomeboy:
Morning Kman,

What do you make of the feature near 45? I didn't notice that at all until I took a look at the visible this morning....and it became quite obvious. Not much in the way of convection but there is a fair vorticy reading with it


Good morning. There are three areas of interest out there. The feature at 45 W I would rank as third in line in terms of interest. While there is a nice spin to it and vorticity is present it is surrounded by very dry air and is not showing any signs of trying to organize at this time.

The feature very close to Barbados on the other hand is improving as the day goes on. I would pay more attention to the one near 59 W over the one near 45.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's our wave thats moving off Africa right now. O.o


yup only the ECMWF is developing the wave at 0E into a big storm, all the other models are developing the wave at 14E, timing wise it doesnt make sense any other way.
This is a better view

gfs 2009081006 Forecast slp Java Animation
looks like we are getting something cranked up near barbados
Quoting Orcasystems:


I'm not sure if the two of you make it into the top 30 :)

Oh there is another... really... where... come out come out where ever you are...lol
Let's examine that Barbados wave for a moment.

Movement to the W, and although there's a disagreement as to its true nature at this time...

QUESTION: Who has a current steering map of the GoM. That could tell us alot right now as to where this thing might be heading.
I don't see 99L curving out to sea now. It is very poorly organized. It should stay south....we may have 2 named storms coming heading west in 5-7 days.....Yep tis the season and the time for things to rev up.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Oh there is another... really... where... come out come out where ever you are...lol


I will try and find the nick for you.. I was chatting to him a few weeks ago.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning everyone....LOok what enters the bottom right pic at day 9/10


Wow that goes right over the island I'm on.
it appears aow is forming east of barbados and moisture is being fed from a band of convection which is attatches to the itcz
Quoting CycloneOz:
Let's examine that Barbados wave for a moment.

Movement to the W, and although there's a disagreement as to its true nature at this time...

QUESTION: Who has a current steering map of the GoM. That could tell us alot right now as to where this thing might be heading.

That map would not help at all. Patterns change.
3304. WAHA
Quoting Orcasystems:
This is a better view

gfs 2009081006 Forecast slp Java Animation

Strong Bill?
Some banding features and good circulation.But convection is lacking at the center.

img
Quoting Orcasystems:


The gulf states.. go figure
You forgot the Carols.


Right, I think there are a good number of bloggers from both North and South Carolina.

Don't forget, besides souther Florida, the Outer Banks of North Carolina is the #2 most likely spot for a hurricane to hit..
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

That map would not help at all. Patterns change.


Then I'll take a 5-6 day forecast map of the steering in the GoM...

Doesn't Penn State run one of these?
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Wow that goes right over the island I'm on.
Yeah, sure glad he didn't run that out 72 more hours. Didn't like where that was going...lol
3310. 7544
Quoting WAHA:

Strong Bill?


monster bill
I don't like what I see with all these model runs. I'm glad we have a long time to watch this one.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
99l if it Surives and doesnt curve
could become a threat to PR , Bahamas , Florida , or The Carolins



My thinking exactly...would cause some damage to the carribean and then either impact FL or the carolinas.
Quoting AussieStorm:

What about Sydney Australia??


what about Texas? hey could happen :p
Quoting 7544:


monster bill

from the looks of it what are the possbile targets of this possible monster
TD 2 could be closer to home than we thought east of Barbados
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Yeah, sure glad he didn't run that out 72 more hours. Didn't like where that was going...lol

lol
Quoting 7544:


monster bill
Where do you see Bill. I don't even see Ana
3319. 7544
Quoting Acemmett90:

from the looks of it what are the possbile targets of this possible monster


did you see the 06 gfs yet
those characters yesterday had ana way out there in the basin. that one probally will get a name. ana though seems to have other plans
Kman i seen that blob at 59W last nite and noted it on my tropical update.....if you look at the 850mb vorticity it is looking very nice at the lower levels......nothing spinning at 550mb yet....Not much in Convergence or Divergence to speak of but, those can change very quickly......it sure looks impressive on Satellite and the spin is for sure at the surface looking at the 850mb vorticity.....
Quoting 7544:


did you see the 06 gfs yet

thats the reason im asking
Quoting Acemmett90:

from the looks of it what are the possbile targets of this possible monster

The Caribbean and Gulf coast if it develops.
When is Dr. Masters supposed to have a new post?
Quoting CycloneOz:


Then I'll take a 5-6 day forecast map of the steering in the GoM...

Doesn't Penn State run one of these?


Link
Quoting kmanislander:
Ramsdis loop of Barbados feature. The circulation is filling in quite quickly.


Nice loop Kman. However, it is about to enter the Eastern Caribbean where systems tend to struggle if not already developed, right?
Quoting kmanislander:
Ramsdis loop of Barbados feature. The circulation is filling in quite quickly.

I wonder what shear will do to it once it gets in the Caribbean.

Link
"from the looks of it what are the possbile targets of this possible monster"

since it hasn't even formed yet, there is no way any forecast tool has any skill in predicting this.

print out the pdf map of the atlantic basin and throw darts at it.
3330. 7544
weve been watching this wave all week die and come back remember the nogaps showed it as a ts going over into the cab a few days ago then droped it now it might be making a comback
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

The Caribbean and Gulf coast if it develops.
There you go again...lol
It's too bad that Praia, the capital of Cape Verde, doesn't have regular observations. The capital is in the southern Cape Verde Islands, quite close to the low pressure track. It would have been interesting to see what the observations were.

The pressure at this buoy, south of the low, has been west for several hours:

Link
It may be way too soon to ask this, but does anybody think this system(s) off the coast of Africa could effect travel plans from Houston to Cozumel on August 20 - 25?
3334. Drakoen
It's gonna take another 24 hours to repair this:
From The Caribbean Weather Center
Wx Update, Interim Tropical, Sun9, 1p

--My confidence continues to increase that we're about to enter an active period for Tropical weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Tropical WAVE's:
--WAVE moving W@20 across Yucatan Peninsula embedded in dry air mass, limiting squalls.
* *
--NOAA analyzes WAVE 64W, S of 18N, moving WNW@15...but UofWisc shows impressive vorticity-maximum's lies farthest N near 54W & coincides nicely with visible rotation & squalls just W of 15N/55W, suggesting to me the WAVE lies near 55W. ITCZ-related squalls extend from 15N/55W WSW thru S Windwards then W along 12N to 72W...all moving W...activity in S Windwards should shift N into N Windwards & S Leewards later today & tonight. Tropical LO formation NOT likely.
* *
--NOAA analyzes WAVE 47W, S of 16N, moving W@15. I'll grant that weak vorticity reaches its N-most point near 47W, but it's not much of a WAVE.
* *
--WAVE near 36W, S of 20N, moving W@15. GFS gradually strengthens WAVE & may form weak LO 16N/50W late tomorrow / moves strong WAVE or weak LO thru Leewards Wed12 / Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico Wed12 night into Thu13 / Dom Rep late Thu13 / T&C and SE Bahamas Fri14 / W Bahamas Sat15 / FL Sun16. Euro runs about 24hrs later & tracks WAVE/weak LO over Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico thru Cuba) Thu13 night thru weekend. I'll stick with my 10% risk for Tropical LO formation from this feature thru Sun16.
* *
--WAVE 22W, S of 18N, moving W@15-20 VERY IMPRESSIVE, with well-defined low-mid-level circulation & focal point 14N/22W...I'd say there's a 70% chance surface LO may form at the focal point along WAVE over next 48hrs as WAVE moves W@15-20. NOAA gives this a medium (30-50% chance).

--GFS & GFDL begins a WNW turn within 48hrs, and pulls LO into a higher-shear environment toward a TROF along 50W which weakens sub-Tropical RIDGE...Tropical LO may reach 30N/60W where it dissipates along TROF Mon17.

--HWRF similar to GFS/GFDL, but rebuilds sub-Tropical RIDGE Fri14, which may keep LO S of 20N as it continues W after Fri14.

--Euro also fails to weaken sub-Tropical RIDGE sufficiently to pull LO much to the N...instead gradually strengthens LO as it crosses 60W near 19N (just N of Leewards) Mon17 / N of Puerto Rico Tue18...after which there's a chance W extent of RIDGE might weaken, allowing more-significant gain in Latitude. EURO MODEL SOLUTION COULD BRING A HURRICANE INTO PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS OR WATERS N OF BAHAMAS Wed19.

NOGAPS & Canadian models fail to initiate any sort of WNW motion...NOGAPS places LO 13N-14N/45W late Fri14 / Canadian 14N/51W late Fri14... NOGAPS & CANADIAN SOLUTIONS COULD BRING A HURRICANE INTO PARTS OF E CARIBBEAN by Sun16-Mon17 / FARTHER W IN CARIBBEAN THEREAFTER.

MY OPINION:
It's very likely (70%) this will be 1st Tropical LO of the season. Evolution of sub-Tropical RIDGE (and TROF near 50W that may weaken RIDGE) will dictate whether LO moves toward E Caribbean as early as Sun16...or Bahamas as early as Wed19...or dissipates S&E of Bermuda in a similar time frame. Credible models are spread across the possible solutions, and it's impossible to make a useful guess on the eventual track...but I would tend to give less weight to NOGAPS/Canadian solution, so E Caribbean may be at less risk than areas N of 20N.

* *
--Next WAVE may exit Africa tomorrow. GFS develops this into a significant Tropical LO as it drifts slowly W to 13N/30W Sat15 / crossing 60W near 19N Thu20 / raking much of the Bahamas as a Hurricane Sat22 / reinforcing HI over NE US Mon24 prevents Hurricane from turning N, causing it to plow into S Florida. It's WAY too early to be concerned about this feature...but it hints the coming increase in activity may create more-than-one Tropical LO.

* * * * * * * *

Wx Update, E Caribbean, Sat8, 6a

Morning Graphical QuickScat & IMAGERY: Venezuela S of 11N & Trinidad ENE-E@0-15 with scattered squalls to 35k / elsewhere E of 67W throughout E Caribbean NE-ENE@13-18 with a few mild 20-25k squalls.

SYNOPSIS:
Tropical WAVEs:
--Weak WAVE 78W, S of Cuba to 10N, supporting only a few scattered squalls mainly 14N to Jamaica as it moves W rapidly near 20k.
--Weak WAVE 57W, S of 14N, moving W@15, supports enhanced squalls mainly within the ITCZ btwn 60W-55W.
--Farther East, things are a bit more confusing...
--Strong vorticity (spin) marks low-mid-level LO at 13N/51W, moving W@10-15...Canadian model develops into weak Tropical LO crossing Guadeloupe late Mon10 / Puerto Rico late Tue11 / T&C early Thu13 / C Bahamas Fri14. Other models fail to develop a significant closed LO...instead moving a very weak WAVE with little significant weather (indeed light winds & few significant squalls) except for a NE-SE wind shift in Windwards/Leewards about Tue11 & continuing to move W-WNW, bringing some increase in winds & seas & squalls to Bahamas Thu13 or Fri14 onward.
--NOAA identifies WAVE 40W, S of 16N, moving W@15. I have a hard time finding a WAVE in this area, and the GFS seems more interested in the WAVE farther E...
--NOAA identifies WAVE 20W-28W, S of 20N, moving W@15...but I analyze this WAVE nearer 30W as a broad area of vorticity S of 25N from Cape Verde area to 38W, as far S as 9N, moving W@15. More models suggest this has some potential to develop into weak Tropical LO...GFS has it crossing 40W near 14N tomorrow night / crossing Windwards-Leewards probably as a strong Tropical WAVE Wed12 / moving along Greater Antilles thru the week to W Cuba over weekend. NOGAPS seems a compromise btwn Canadian & GFS...making the WAVE near 50W today the more-significant feature & moving it as a strong WAVE or weak LO thru Windwards-Leewards late Tue11.
--MY OPINION:
Neither WAVE should develop into a LO that persists for long or is very significant, but there is a chance (maybe a 10% chance) the feature along 50W and/or the feature near 30W develops a weak Tropical LO that probably fails to persist for long and is not very significant.
--OUTLOOK:
GFS is more exited about developing a WAVE exiting Africa today into a Tropical LO near 40W Tue11-Wed12...but it falls-apart into a WAVE entering E Caribbean Mon17. Also more excited developing the next WAVE into a LO crossing SE Caribbean Wed19. And develops WAVE exiting Africa Fri21 into a strong Tropical LO which could cross 60W late August.
--CONCLUSION:
Decreasing vertical wind-shear & other more-supportive atmospheric dynamics are likely to bring an end to the quiet we've thus-far enjoyed in the Tropics this Season...I expect 1-or-more significant Tropical LOs to form before the end of August, with a reasonable chance we see some sort of Tropical LO formation within the next 5-10 days...though it's impossible to guess whether any of this will impact the Caribbean.

* * *

MEANWHILE...
Sub-Tropical Atlantic RIDGE weakens thru Tue11, allowing Trades to moderate...then RIDGE strengthen thru Thu13, and, combined with stronger WAVE, brings significant increase in winds & seas & squalls to many areas.

F'cst:
Precip:
Trinidad & Grenada & Los Testigos areas: another surge of squalls to 30-40k this afternoon thru tomorrow morning, then decreasing to mostly-dry with only a few isolated squalls thru Wed12, but some risk for squalls after Wed12.
S Windwards: similar, but activity may persist thru mid-day tomorrow.
N Windwards: mostly dry today, scattered squalls to 30k after midnight tonight thru tomorrow night, not much activity Mon10 or Tue11, but squalls possible Wed12.
Leewards: mostly dry with only isolated morning showers & mild squalls thru Mon10, but a few squalls Mon10 night onward, and widespread squalls to 30-40k Wed12 into Thu13 morning.
Virgin Islands & Puerto Rico: similar, but no increase in activity till late Tue11, and widespread activity not till Thu13.
Dom Rep: isolated showers & mild squalls anytime, but more coverage of stronger squalls Thu13 onward.
Venezuela near 65W: isolated squalls to 35k thru tomorrow, then mostly dry.
ABCs: isolated squalls to 35k thru Mon10 morning, then mostly dry.
3336. Dakster
Quoting mikatnight:


Many residents and even some hurricane scientists who experienced the northern eyewall of Andrew reported that the wind gained a "freakish velocity" (Brown 1993). Residents near the center of the storm, reported that around 5:00 a.m., as the eye was coming ashore, the wind reach an deafening roar, "like a freight train running across the roof" (Brown 1993). At this point, many people reported their homes experienced a deep vibration until the structure failed (roof ripped off, walls blew out). Site investigations after the storm reported that even automobiles flew through the air for a short distance. As Andrew's eyewall passed over south Dade County, thousands of residents in panic went from room to room, as sections of their homes were being destroyed. Many residents stayed in hallways, closets, and bathrooms, until conditions improved around 7.00 a.m. on the 24th.

I'm not that curious.


They forgot to mention the horrific light and sounds of transformers exploding. Sounded like someone launching RPG's at you.

Been there, done that- I can understand someone not wanting to be "curious".
3337. 7544
Quoting Acemmett90:

thats the reason im asking


link Link
Quoting stoormfury:
the area at 45w is very interesting. while most are viewing 99l i think this area has more potential to develop than 99L


I have to agree, Kman has been saying the same thing.
Quoting gwadaman:


I have to agree, Kman has been saying the same thing.


no kman is talking about the area just east of Barbados at 59W
Quoting tornadofan:


Nice loop Kman. However, it is about to enter the Eastern Caribbean where systems tend to struggle if not already developed, right?


Statistically that is correct but shear is near 5 knots all the way to 70W. Once past 70W the Caribbean tends to be very conducive for development and there is a well defined anticyclone near 70W that may amplify and allow that feature to organize. I have not looked at the forecast for shear in the central Caribbean but current conditions in the Eastern Caribbean are as good as I have seen them this season.

Quoting Dakster:


They forgot to mention the horrific light and sounds of transformers exploding. Sounded like someone launching RPG's at you.

Been there, done that- I can understand someone not wanting to be "curious".


Agreed. Some curiosity is best fed by watching footage on the tv, looking at pictures, reading different source etc...
Quoting annabelle27:
It may be way too soon to ask this, but does anybody think this system(s) off the coast of Africa could effect travel plans from Houston to Cozumel on August 20 - 25?


There is no way to answer this question with any accuracy. A random guess is as accurate as any 2-week prediction.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Kman i seen that blob at 59W last nite and noted it on my tropical update.....if you look at the 850mb vorticity it is looking very nice at the lower levels......nothing spinning at 550mb yet....Not much in Convergence or Divergence to speak of but, those can change very quickly......it sure looks impressive on Satellite and the spin is for sure at the surface looking at the 850mb vorticity.....



Your thinking is that :

Because 99L Is weak it will not feel the weakness

therefore countiueing its tryjectory west west north west

therefore making a landfall on PR, or the Conus ..

Somewhat possible..

Have you seen the new models


12Z GFS at 54 hours.
3345. Drakoen
I see there is support for another system to develop off the coast of Africa from the ECMWF.
Quoting SavannahStorm:


12Z GFS at 54 hours.


yup and as you can see again on this run, that is clearly the wave that is exiting Africa now
Quoting rwdobson:
print out the pdf map of the atlantic basin and throw darts at it.


Hey that's my forecasting technique! LOL
Quoting tornadofan:


Nice loop Kman. However, it is about to enter the Eastern Caribbean where systems tend to struggle if not already developed, right?
it might develop before crossing over. hopes rule was unless its a depression or worse it wont develop until the west carib. its been broken a couple times since he died.
Quoting Drakoen:
It's gonna take another 24 hours to repair this:


Yup. Its a mess right now, but I still think it has a shot despite what some may think. Still has that circulation.
3350. Patrap
Still having some PC issues thru here,..so I advise everyone to be cautious of opening links.
Quoting Patrap:
Still having some PC issues thru here,..so I advise everyone to be cautious of opening links.


Are people posting malicious links again?
Quoting BenBIogger:


Link


Thanks boss. Looking ahead, the Barbados wave doesn't look like the odds for full scale development as a TC are in favor.
3353. Patrap
From Saturdays infection..some Bugs and horse's,


-TrojanDownloader:Win32/Renos
Aliases

Win32.Renos (F-secure)


-PWS:Win32/Daurso.A ---- This bugger made attempts on 8-03, 8-04, and 8-08 and is a password stealer
Aliases

Win-Trojan/Daurso.32768 (AhnLab)
Win32/PSW.Agent.LQD (ESET)
Trojan-PSW.Win32.Agent.mzh (Kaspersky)
Trj/Downloader.MDW (Panda)
and a number of others
Hmm, looks like we might have some things to talk about for the next couple of weeks! Good morning everyone!
3355. BrandiQ
Quoting mikatnight:


Many residents and even some hurricane scientists who experienced the northern eyewall of Andrew reported that the wind gained a "freakish velocity" (Brown 1993). Residents near the center of the storm, reported that around 5:00 a.m., as the eye was coming ashore, the wind reach an deafening roar, "like a freight train running across the roof" (Brown 1993). At this point, many people reported their homes experienced a deep vibration until the structure failed (roof ripped off, walls blew out). Site investigations after the storm reported that even automobiles flew through the air for a short distance. As Andrew's eyewall passed over south Dade County, thousands of residents in panic went from room to room, as sections of their homes were being destroyed. Many residents stayed in hallways, closets, and bathrooms, until conditions improved around 7.00 a.m. on the 24th.

I'm not that curious.



I was living in North Miami Beach at the time. I hope I never have to experience something like that ever again!
Quoting kmanislander:


Statistically that is correct but shear is near 5 knots all the way to 70W. Once past 70W the Caribbean tends to be very conducive for development and there is a well defined anticyclone near 70W that may amplify and allow that feature to organize. I have not looked at the forecast for shear in the central Caribbean but current conditions in the Eastern Caribbean are as good as I have seen them this season.



Thanks for your reply. Will keep an eye on it for sure.
Quoting tornadofan:


Nice loop Kman. However, it is about to enter the Eastern Caribbean where systems tend to struggle if not already developed, right?


Not true, the have no problem developing in that area, al depends on the environment conditions.
Quoting sammywammybamy:



Your thinking is that :

Because 99L Is weak it will not feel the weakness

therefore countiueing its tryjectory west west north west

therefore making a landfall on PR, or the Conus ..

Somewhat possible..

Have you seen the new models


Sammy i have....its doing exactly as i thought it would do and yes move west and miss the gap to escape out to sea.......99L is a sleeper for now....more concerning now is at 60W....this could be a rapid developer...just have to wait out the next 12hours and see what happens here...
I've been tracking that wave the ECMWF likes since it was over Chad and the Central African Republic Drak. It's silly, but I've had a feeling about that wave since I saw it on Friday.
Quoting futuremet:


Are people posting malicious links again?
I got 2 viruses this morning but protection got them before they got in
patrap i got it to on my computer too. on my wifes mac now it shut the computer down going to retreive my photos then i plan on purging it and starting over this sucks
Quoting Patrap:
Still having some PC issues thru here,..so I advise everyone to be cautious of opening links.


What are you using to clean things up?
Have to get back to work now but will check in later.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I've been tracking that wave the ECMWF likes since it was over Chad and the Central African Republic Drak. It's silly, but I've had a feeling about that wave since I saw it on Friday.


Go with your gut.
10/1145 UTC 14.3N 24.5W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic



New blog
Quoting Patrap:
From Saturdays infection..some Bugs and horse's


Tip for ALL:

If your using Internet Explorer or Firefox when you scroll over a link it tells you where it goes (even if its a picture link)..

Don't click something you don't recognise or looks suspicious.. Always check before clicking.
3369. Ossqss
3353. Patrap, I would offer that the traditional AV/security packages did not catch the password stealer or loader in most instances. Windows defender did! It is a free item.
Quoting AussieStorm:
From The Caribbean Weather Center
MY OPINION:
--Next WAVE may exit Africa tomorrow. GFS develops this into a significant Tropical LO as it drifts slowly W to 13N/30W Sat15 / crossing 60W near 19N Thu20 / raking much of the Bahamas as a Hurricane Sat22 / reinforcing HI over NE US Mon24 prevents Hurricane from turning N, causing it to plow into S Florida. It's WAY too early to be concerned about this feature...but it hints the coming increase in activity may create more-than-one Tropical LO.


Uh, so we could have a strong TC plowing into S. FL around the timeframe of the 17th anniversary of Andrew doing the same thing?

Wow...
3371. WXHEAD
Quoting CaneWarning:


That quote is exactly what happened to my family as we went through the northern eye wall. We had the center bathroom in the house left and that was it. Not fun.


I live less than 5 miles from where Charlie came ashore in '04. I lost 2 pieces of soffit, and hurt my back carting my generator about. In Miami in 1992, the residences in Andrew's path were not built to today's codes for most of Florida's counties. Most of them were scare built to "normal" standards (around 75 MPH wind)The roof structure was not tied to the foundation like the requirements they have now. I wouldn't say I was disappointed by Charlie's awesome display, the only time I was a little apprehensive was when the "tornadoes" or swirling eddies of wind would come down the street and make the walls of the house shudder. Most of the time was spent watching the porta potties being blown this way and that around the neighborhood and watching pieces of my neighbor's roofing go flying into oblivion whenever a "tornado" would pass by.
I came from Indiana where I was a spotter for NWS and I was deep into it, chasing real tornadoes etc. I came to FL in 1998 and was fascinated by hurricanes and their development - and their aftermath. Now I am a member of a CERT team and we set up communication centers in areas hardest hit, for disaster relief. I am a self-diagnosed weather NUT, like many of you (don't deny it!) and I am drawn to this site like a bug to a lantern. The sparkling reparte sometimes has an allure all its own while some guess, some plot, and some observe. Except for an occasional water balloon from the balcony, I'm the last one.
3372. oakland
Quoting BrandiQ:



I was living in North Miami Beach at the time. I hope I never have to experience something like that ever again!


I was in Ft. Lauderdale and we had almost nothing by comparison to Miami-Dade. That was close enough for me.
#3371 Good post wxhead!

Oh, and Sammywammy - I was rivited by the Andrew video...thanks.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Uh, so we could have a strong TC plowing into S. FL around the timeframe of the 17th anniversary of Andrew doing the same thing?

Wow...

Andrew is a touchy subject.. Lost two of my best friends during that beast. They were roomates and never listened to evacuations, thought they could weather it out.

So I will not mention that Andrew storm, in corralation with Florida eer again. But we should be concerned with what comes off of arica. The CV storms that make the long trek across the atlantic pose a great deal of danger to any state.
Quoting Funkadelic:

Andrew is a touchy subject.. Lost two of my best friends during that beast. They were roomates and never listened to evacuations, thought they could weather it out.

So I will not mention that Andrew storm, in corralation with Florida eer again. But we should be concerned with what comes off of arica. The CV storms that make the long trek across the atlantic pose a great deal of danger to any state.




Sorry for your loss...
3377. cg2916
NEW BLOG!
look at this map ..
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Best Wishes everyone! :)

CycloneOz - Out...

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