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African Wave 95L and Mexico's Tropical Storm Polo Little Threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:51 PM GMT on September 20, 2014

Satellite loops show that a tropical wave (Invest 95L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, has a moderate degree of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. The wave is under light wind shear and over warm waters of 28°C (82°F), conditions that favor development, but the 12Z Saturday forecast from the SHIPS model predicts that shear will rise to the moderate range, ocean temperatures will cool, and the air surrounding the storm will grow drier by Sunday, making development unlikely. Our three reliable tropical cyclone genesis models give little support for 95L becoming a tropical depression, and in their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10%. This wave will bring heavy rain showers to the Cape Verdes Islands on Sunday. 95L does not appears to be a threat to any land areas besides the Cape Verde Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image of Invest 95L off the coast of Africa, at approximately 8 am EDT September 20, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Polo weakening, little threat to Mexico
Tropical Storm Polo is steadily weakening due to high wind shear as it heads northwest parallel to coast of Mexico. With cooler waters ahead of it and continued high wind shear likely, Polo does not appear to be a significant threat to bring heavy rains or high winds to hurricane-ravaged Baja, Mexico. The 11 am EDT Saturday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula just an 8% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Polo. Satellite loops show the classic appearance of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear, with the low level center exposed to view and all the heavy thunderstorms limited to one side.


Figure 2. Lastest satellite image of Polo.

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong approaching Taiwan
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Fung-Wong is expected to make landfall in southern Taiwan Sunday morning with sustained winds near 55 mph. Fung-Wong brushed the northern end of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Friday morning with sustained winds of 45 mph, bringing torrential rains that flooded the capital of the Philippines, Manila. The resulting flooding killed five people and shut down the city.


Figure 3. Rescuers use a rubber dinghy to rescue trapped residents after heavy monsoon rains spawned by Tropical Storm Fung-Wong flooded Marikina city, east of Manila, Philippines and most parts of the metropolis Friday, Sept. 19, 2014. Heavy rains due to a storm and the seasonal monsoon caused widespread flooding Friday in the Philippine capital and nearby provinces, shutting down schools and government offices. Local authorities reported thousands were evacuated early Friday from severely inundated communities, some under rapid-flowing flood waters more than neck high. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez)

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Doc
Thanks Doc.....rain has stopped here around tampa bay..sun peeked out for a few minutes but overcast is bak..one good thing...its cooler temp wise.
Thanks Dr. Masters for the updated blog..
Have a good weekend..
Thanks Dr. Masters. Curious how much rain we might see from this frontal low developing in FL this week depending on how strong and how far offshore it will be.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1046 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
BAND OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA WITH SOME DRIER AIR BEGINNING
TO WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND NATURE COAST. THIS
BAND OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THIS AREA. FURTHER NORTH WE
SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE WHEN COMBINED WITH SOME PEAKS OF
SUN TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM POP UP.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH THANKS TO THE CLOUDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR ZONES KEEPING CLOUDS AND
A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THIS AREA...WHILE FURTHER NORTH THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW EVENING SHOWERS THEN SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY.

HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POP GRIDS TO SHOW THIS PROGRESSION OF
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE REST OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND UPDATED ZONE FORECAST FOR THESE CHANGES.

&&
Quoting 404. wunderkidcayman:

Good morning guys
I've just been reviewing some models. I'm finding some interesting thing for medium and long range activity, with the GEM/CMC and the GFS. This is for end of Sept and early Oct. More so with the long range GFS. It's been showing this system for about one or two days now and it is moving up the time line. But I'm slightly more interested with the track. Yeah I know it ain't the best idea to be looking at tracks for long future systems but just hear me out, I have not seen track like this since like 2007 and 2004.




Why do you find this one interesting? ;)

Starting to look a bit interesting near the SC coast....
Marco?
Greater chance in the next 10 days? Volcanic activity in Islas Canarias causing a 30+ meter tsunami hitting New York, or long range Canadian/GFS predictions of TC development actually verifying?
Quoting 6. GatorWX:



Why do you find this one interesting? ;)


lol
Quoting 4. win1gamegiantsplease:

Thanks Dr. Masters. Curious how much rain we might see from this frontal low developing in FL this week depending on how strong and how far offshore it will be.


Well, this developing low will pull away from Florida, but a stalled front with low level vorticity will remain in place across Florida and the gulf. More rounds of jet stream energy will dig down into the eastern gulf and Florida pooling deep moisture beneath upper divergence over Florida, this will lead to more rounds of widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms and additional waves of low pressure developing int the eastern gulf and riding along the stalled front.

In short, there is model agreement that a lot more is on the way, which is good, its well needed!

Monday and Tuesday are looking to be the wettest days as of now, although there is uncertainty as to how wet the rest of the week may be. Either way, the energy looks a bit stronger during this early upcoming week than it was this weekend, so rainfall will likely be heavier.
Quoting 9. EdMahmoud:

Greater chance in the next 10 days? Volcanic activity in Islas Canarias causing a 30+ meter tsunami hitting New York, or long range Canadian/GFS predictions of TC development actually verifying?


Both are pretty far fetched, IMHO...
Quoting 9. EdMahmoud:

Greater chance in the next 10 days? Volcanic activity in Islas Canarias causing a 30+ meter tsunami hitting New York, or long range Canadian/GFS predictions of TC development actually verifying?


or snow in Houston..can't leave that out..
Quoting 12. Dakster:



Both are pretty far fetched, IMHO...


Going all Alaskan on us I see. Nice avatar.
Quoting 9. EdMahmoud:

Greater chance in the next 10 days? Volcanic activity in Islas Canarias causing a 30+ meter tsunami hitting New York, or long range Canadian/GFS predictions of TC development actually verifying?
I would put my money on the tsunami.
Quoting EdMahmoud:
Greater chance in the next 10 days? Volcanic activity in Islas Canarias causing a 30+ meter tsunami hitting New York, or long range Canadian/GFS predictions of TC development actually verifying?


Hard question.
Quoting 11. Jedkins01:



Well, this developing low will pull away from Florida, but a stalled front with low level vorticity will remain in place across Florida and the gulf. More rounds of jet stream energy will dig down into the eastern gulf and Florida pooling deep moisture beneath upper divergence over Florida, this will lead to more rounds of widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms and additional waves of low pressure developing int the eastern gulf and riding along the stalled front.

In short, there is model agreement that a lot more is on the way, which is good, its well needed!

Monday and Tuesday are looking to be the wettest days as of now, although there is uncertainty as to how wet the rest of the week may be. Either way, the energy looks a bit stronger during this early upcoming week than it was this weekend, so rainfall will likely be heavier.


You guys in the sunshine state can drink up all you want ;) Wilmington eclipsed 50" right around Labor Day, which we don't hit on average until mid-October. Ncstorm has made note of this season not being a good time for this area to be hit by a TC for this reason and while there's always an outside chance of an October storm we're likely safe for the year assuming a homemade system doesn't spin up like Ophelia. But as long as early October is dry I'm fine, usually the beach weather and ocean temperature vs air temperature are perfection until the jellyfish arrive.

And on the east coast tsunami subject, I've read that a quake in the Puerto Rican Trench would be the best chance of that happening for FL and the Gulf, although my knowledge of tectonics is very basic.
long range GFS shear map shows a upper level anticyclone covering almost the entire GOM. Also pressures around the same time will be dropping. What would be the odds of this happening?
Quoting 9. EdMahmoud:

Greater chance in the next 10 days? Volcanic activity in Islas Canarias causing a 30+ meter tsunami hitting New York, or long range Canadian/GFS predictions of TC development actually verifying?


Or rain for sar in AL
Quoting 13. ncstorm:



or snow in Houston..can't leave that out..


December 4th is the record for earliest, but records are made to be broken. Making the Florida posters all jealous...

Quoting 8. Dakster:

Marco?

Polo!
Quoting 21. Skyepony:


Polo!



Certainly looks like a polo now:



;)
so the 12z Euro showed a low off the florida east coast at 240 hours (long range) where some on here had posted the image a couple of days ago....

00z Euro today's runs at where the Low should be due to the accuracy of the Euro model..I dont see anything?




Points is all the models have issues..so for those who have issues with long range model runs we shouldnt expect to see you post any long range runs on this blog anymore?..yeah thats what I thought..deal with it and stop complaining..

Later..
MIAMI (CBS4) – South Floridians know how to prepare for a disaster, after all, we’ve got hurricane season year after year. But in the wake of the devastating earthquake and massive tsunami in Japan, many people are wondering whether a tsunami could strike Florida.

While we’d like the answer to be ‘no chance’ at all, it’s not that simple. There is actually a “very remote chance” a tsunami could hit the Sunshine State. The good news? Most tsunamis are associated with major earthquakes which makes the possibility of a tsunami hitting Florida’s East Coast very small.
Can you imagine the devastation that would be caused if a massive wall of water several hundred feet high slammed into Florida at more than 100 miles an hour? To many people such a scenario is impossible, but that is what people living along the Indian Ocean thought before the 2004 tsunami and that is what people living in Japan thought before the 2011 tsunami. Throughout history, giant tsunamis have been relatively rare events, but they do happen. Scientists tell us that a mega-tsunami can race across the open ocean at up to 500 miles an hour, and when they reach shore they can produce waves that are hundreds of feet high. And even though authorities claim that the threat to Florida is “remote”, it might surprise you to learn that there are “Tsunami Hazard Zone” signs on Florida beaches. If a highly unusual event (such as a giant meteor hitting the Atlantic Ocean) caused a giant tsunami that hit Florida, the devastation would be absolutely unimaginable.

Most people don’t realize this, but almost the entire bottom half of Florida is just barely above sea level. If a giant tsunami did hit Florida, there would be nothing to stop it from sweeping across the entire state…
Just had a wind gust to 43 mph,40 miles east of Charleston. Link
the Caribbean faces threat of Biggest Tsunami ever recorded..................................Link
29. JRRP
GFS has been pretty consistent
Quoting 29. JRRP:

GFS has been pretty consistent



Lock it in
31. SLU
Of course it won't happen but it's great entertainment nonetheless.

Quoting 29. JRRP:

GFS has been pretty consistent



It was very consistent on a TC developing in the Caribbean in July, always 6 to 8 days out, for a week.

But I hope it is blind squirrel time. Nothing against Florida, I lived in the 32813 for a year, been to ABC Rock and ABC Country, and the Orange Blossom Trail, but it has snowed twice in Houston since Florida has had a hurricane, and hurricanes probably play a vital role in their ecology or something.
Quoting 25. LargoFl:

MIAMI (CBS4) – South Floridians know how to prepare for a disaster, after all, we’ve got hurricane season year after year. But in the wake of the devastating earthquake and massive tsunami in Japan, many people are wondering whether a tsunami could strike Florida.

While we’d like the answer to be ‘no chance’ at all, it’s not that simple. There is actually a “very remote chance” a tsunami could hit the Sunshine State. The good news? Most tsunamis are associated with major earthquakes which makes the possibility of a tsunami hitting Florida’s East Coast very small.



I've read of a volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands that could cause a huge landslide and trigger a mega-tsunami that would devastate much of the Atlantic rim including the FL East Coast. There's no telling when that will happen though (or even if such an eruption would cause a landslide and subsequent tsunami of the predicted scale). If it were to happen, I wonder how much notice East Coast residents would get to head west and/or up elevation. An hour or two? 6 hours? 12 hours?
imagine...sitting on miami beach..looking out over the water.....in comes a 130 ft high wave travelling at 500mph..boom...you wake up in ft meyers..uhh how did i get here you ask..lol
Quoting JRRP:
GFS has been pretty consistent


Consistent with showing absolute nonsense in the long-range.
Quoting 33. HurrMichaelOrl:



I've read of a volcanic eruption in the Canary Islands that could cause a huge landslide and trigger a mega-tsunami that would devastate much of the Atlantic rim including the FL East Coast. There's no telling when that will happen though (or even if such an eruption would cause a landslide and subsequent tsunami of the predicted scale). If it were to happen, I wonder how much notice East Coast residents would get to head west and/or up elevation. An hour or two? 6 hours? 12 hours?
the site i posted said the tsunami would reach florida in about 8 hours wow
Only 30 miles from Galveston Bay, but 100 foot elevation. I laugh at tsunamis, unless it is one of those K-T dinosaur extinction asteroid tsunamis, in which case almost everybody dies, but that ranks up there with Yellowstone blowing in my lifetime.

Even lower odds than the 15 day GFS hurricane.
Quoting 32. EdMahmoud:



It was very consistent on a TC developing in the Caribbean in July, always 6 to 8 days out, for a week.

But I hope it is blind squirrel time. Nothing against Florida, I lived in the 32813 for a year, been to ABC Rock and ABC Country, and the Orange Blossom Trail, but it has snowed twice in Houston since Florida has had a hurricane, and hurricanes probably play a vital role in their ecology or something.


Tropical cyclones do play a vital role in the ecology of FL in its natural state.
Quoting 34. LargoFl:

imagine...sitting on miami beach..looking out over the water.....in comes a 130 ft high wave travelling at 500mph..boom...you wake up in ft meyers..uhh how did i get here you ask..lol


Is Ft. Myers heaven? Lol
40. SLU
"Fay?"

Quoting 24. ncstorm:

so the 12z Euro showed a low off the florida east coast at 240 hours (long range) where some on here had posted the image a couple of days ago....

00z Euro today's runs at where the Low should be due to the accuracy of the Euro model..I dont see anything?




Points is all the models have issues..so for those who have issues with long range model runs we shouldnt expect to see you post any long range runs on this blog anymore?..yeah thats what I thought..deal with it and stop complaining..

Later..


12z gfs
Quoting 20. EdMahmoud:



December 4th is the record for earliest, but records are made to be broken. Making the Florida posters all jealous...




I think it should be noted to see who gets snow first or if any this year..Houston or Florida?..doesn't have to be measurable snow (snowflakes will count)..

supposed to have this big El Nino anyway as I keep hearing so it should be quite interesting which area will be the winner..
Quoting 29. JRRP:

GFS has been pretty consistent


Quoting 30. Drakoen:



Lock it in


Done and done.
Quoting 39. win1gamegiantsplease:



Is Ft. Myers heaven? Lol
hmmm with a gator attached to each leg...you'd have to wash thru the everglades first lol
46. JRRP
take it easy guys.. I know for fact that this is long range
LOL
Special weather statement in effect for:
•St. John's and vicinity

Potential for heavy rain and strong winds on Monday.

Environment Canada meteorologists are monitoring an area of low pressure currently developing near Florida. Forecast guidance indicates this system may have significant influence on weather conditions over Newfoundland as it tracks west of the island on Monday.

While it is too soon to determine the exact impacts from this low, at this time the potential for significant rainfall and strong winds exists throughout the island.

Forecasters will continue to assess this system as it develops and provide more detailed information as it becomes available.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts as warnings may be required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at WWW.WEATHER.GC.CA.
Quoting 39. win1gamegiantsplease:



Is Ft. Myers heaven? Lol


If you live in the northern U.S. it is, lol.
Quoting 49. Sfloridacat5:


your turn lol...we've had quite enough up there thank you
alot of rain coming up your way Keeper............................................ ...
Thanks for the great entertainment GFS!.Once again it has pushed the time back..I do know on October 5th I will be up at my local October festival up the street meeting and talking to neighbors and people in the community.
If you had a hot air balloon that you could get ready to deploy,one could go up 200 feet and watch the whole Tsunami. Get some great footage also!LOL
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Is Ft. Myers heaven? Lol


Fort Myers is great from November through April. It's sunny almost every day with relatively low humidity. We average only around 1.8" of rain during the winter months.


June - Sept is very warm and humid. We average around 10" of rain each month during the summer. During a normal summer, there are thunderstorms almost every afternoon. But the morning are usually sunny and you can get a half day in at the beach.


But as mentioned from Nov- April the weather is nearly pefect almost every day.

looks like Long Island and coastal new england may get a taste of this early next week........
998MB kinda strong too up there............................................. ...................
Quoting 52. LargoFl:

alot of rain coming up your way Keeper............................................ ...
we get rain and t storms tonight as cold front passes east coast nova scotia pei newfoundland looks o get the most its a coastal hugger till it reaches there anyway
Quoting 60. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we get rain and t storms tonight as cold front passes east coast nova scotia pei newfoundland looks o get the most its a coastal hugger till it reaches there anyway
yeah looks that way..stay safe up there.
Quoting LargoFl:
998MB kinda strong too up there............................................. ...................


Yeah, it links up with the Canadian Low and in gets really wrapped up. It shows 992 mb in the North Atlantic. Those fishing boats up in that area better be ready for it.
test map prototype
.
Quoting 54. washingtonian115:

Thanks for the great entertainment GFS!.Once again it has pushed the time back..I do know on October 5th I will be up at my local October festival up the street meeting and talking to neighbors and people in the community.


This blog is a form of pure entertainment.
66. SLU
The CMC joins the party

Quoting 55. overwash12:

If you had a hot air balloon that you could get ready to deploy,one could go up 200 feet and watch the whole Tsunami. Get some great footage also!LOL



I am sure since apparently I can see Russia from my house I should be able to see something like that too.
temps have risen significantly this afternoon we are in mid 70's now with humidex values nearing 80 winds gusting too 50 kmh from the s sw till front gets here later this evening

currently clear blue sky and very warm for this time of year

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Saturday 20 September 2014
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:74.1°F
Dewpoint:59.2°F
Humidity:59%
Wind:SSW 20 gust 28 mph
Humidex: 81
Quoting 40. SLU:

"Fay?"


384hr lol
Best Airport in Canada easily'
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Or rain for sar in AL
LOL. That's probably not as remote as a giant tsunami hitting Florida but it sure feels like it is sometimes. :-) You can tell when there's not even the remote possibility of a hurricane hitting Florida in the near term. That's when we start discussing giant tsunamis, some sort of new vicious animal that's shown up in a Florida swamp, or some disease that's going to kill everyone.
Quoting 42. ncstorm:



I think it should be noted to see who gets snow first or if any this year..Houston or Florida?..doesn't have to be measurable snow (snowflakes will count)..

supposed to have this big El Nino anyway as I keep hearing so it should be quite interesting which area will be the winner..




Quoting 71. sar2401:

LOL. That's probably not as remote as a giant tsunami hitting Florida but it sure feels like it is sometimes. :-) You can tell when there's not even the remote possibility of a hurricane hitting Florida in the near term. That's when we start discussing giant tsunamis, some sort of new vicious animal that's shown up in a Florida swamp, or some disease that's going to kill everyone.


That last part... Could be Ebola...
Quoting GatorWX:


So why do you like this one? ;)



Quoting GatorWX:


Why do you find this one interesting? ;)



I don't really find it all that interesting
Just that it is a long time I've seen a storm move like that stay on the S side of the Caribbean and move WNW-NW into the W or NW Caribbean

The only ones I can think of being the last time was Felix 07 and Ivan 04 that did that
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
temps have risen significantly this afternoon we are in mid 70's now with humidex values nearing 80 winds gusting too 50 kmh from the s sw till front gets here later this evening

currently clear blue sky and very warm for this time of year

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Saturday 20 September 2014
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:74.1°F
Dewpoint:59.2°F
Humidity:59%
Wind:SSW 20 gust 28 mph
Humidex: 81
It's 77 and overcast here, about the coolest it's been at this time of day since June. We've got a strong easterly flow that's bringing us clouds from the low off Florida but, of course, no rain. It's been breezy here as well although not as windy as what you're having. There's a good pressure gradient between the low to the west of you and the high over the interior SE US. If the low really deepens as much as some models predict, it will get pretty windy up there Monday.

Quoting LargoFl:
the Caribbean faces threat of Biggest Tsunami ever recorded..................................Link

Nah mainly E Islands

Snow
Houston or Florida

Houston is a city and Florida is a state. So anywhere in Florida?

Houston averages .4" of snow annually. So it's really not a big deal for Houston to get a little bit of snow during the winter.

Now snow in Fort Myers or Palm Beach, that would be a big deal.

Recently I read a article and it said that Key West had never experienced frost before. I didn't know that and I'm still questioning it. I need to do some research to see if the article is accurate.
Quoting Dakster:


That last part... Could be Ebola...
The strange thing is that Ebola is the current FB disease of the week even though the chances of it ever spreading in the developed world is remote. If people want to worry about real diseases, look up extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis and drug resistant malaria. Those are real public health threats with higher mortality rates than properly treated Ebola.
The low is starting to wrap around a lot of precipitation along the coastal locations of N.E. Florida and coastal Georgia. The same areas are getting dumped on.
Special weather statement in effect



1:09 PM EDT Saturday 20 September 2014

Thunderstorms with heavy downpours giving local rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm today and tonight.

Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed across the regions as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Some of the thunderstorms will contain heavy downpours and frequent lightning giving local rainfall amounts of 25 to possibly 50 mm in a couple hours or less. Wind gusts of 75 km/h are also possible.

Motorists should be prepared for sudden low visibility in heavy downpours and ponded water on poorly drained sections on the roads. Showers and thunderstorms may continue well into tonight before being swept out by the cold front on Sunday.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.
Quoting 25. LargoFl:

MIAMI (CBS4) – South Floridians know how to prepare for a disaster, after all, we’ve got hurricane season year after year. But in the wake of the devastating earthquake and massive tsunami in Japan, many people are wondering whether a tsunami could strike Florida.

While we’d like the answer to be ‘no chance’ at all, it’s not that simple. There is actually a “very remote chance” a tsunami could hit the Sunshine State. The good news? Most tsunamis are associated with major earthquakes which makes the possibility of a tsunami hitting Florida’s East Coast very small.



this is something that can't ever be looked at in percentages...anywhere on the planet always
In Dania Beach for the weekend. A really nasty storm just came through with a brown out. Scared the living crap out of my sisters dogs
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Snow
Houston or Florida

Houston is a city and Florida is a state. So anywhere in Florida?

Houston averages .4" of snow annually. So it's really not a big deal for Houston to get a little bit of snow during the winter.

Now snow in Fort Myers or Palm Beach, that would be a big deal.

Recently I read a article and it said that Key West had never experienced frost before. I didn't know that and I'm still questioning it. I need to do some research to see if the article is accurate.
Never even been close officially in Key West. The all-time low was 41 in January, 1886.

Link
The S.E. coastal area of Georgia looks to be getting in the 4"-5" precipitation range.

"Gee"

Quoting 81. Sfloridacat5:

Snow
Houston or Florida

Houston is a city and Florida is a state. So anywhere in Florida?

Houston averages .4" of snow annually. So it's really not a big deal for Houston to get a little bit of snow during the winter.

Now snow in Fort Myers or Palm Beach, that would be a big deal.

Recently I read a article and it said that Key West had never experienced frost before. I didn't know that and I'm still questioning it. I need to do some research to see if the article is accurate.



I'm sure I know my geography so yes I was correct in saying Houston and Florida..Ed lives in Houston and well Florida is what he mentioned so no it doesn't matter in what part of Florida ..but thanks for the lesson in geography that I'm sure everyone on here knows..you can go back to posting the NAM run now..

Patrap..New Orleans is not Houston so no cigar..its between Houston and Florida only..sorry..
Must be Bike Week.

Quoting 7. WalkingInTheSun:

Starting to look a bit interesting near the SC coast....
Quoting 81. Sfloridacat5:

Snow
Houston or Florida

Houston is a city and Florida is a state. So anywhere in Florida?

Houston averages .4" of snow annually. So it's really not a big deal for Houston to get a little bit of snow during the winter.

Now snow in Fort Myers or Palm Beach, that would be a big deal.

Recently I read a article and it said that Key West had never experienced frost before. I didn't know that and I'm still questioning it. I need to do some research to see if the article is accurate.

I don't know if Key West has ever had any frost, but I do know that the all time record low for Key West is 41-degrees.
Quoting sar2401:
Never even been close officially in Key West. The all-time low was 41 in January, 1886.

Link


I never checked.
I know it's been colder than that in Cuba, but Cuba isn't a tiny little Island with warm water all around it.
Quoting 91. HaoleboySurfEC:

Must be Bike Week.




Which bike week?
Recently I read a article and it said that Key West had never experienced frost before. I didn't know that and I'm still questioning it. I need to do some research to see if the article is accurate.


it's true
Quoting 87. sar2401:

Never even been close officially in Key West. The all-time low was 41 in January, 1886.

Link


Deep South Miami-Dade (the county just north of Monroe County, which is where Key West is located) has had Frost...
12z Euro is stronger with the Low when it nears NC..

00z run had a 1012 mb low..the 12z run has 1007 mb low..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The eastern half of Canada is cloudy. That's a really large area to be covered in clouds.
Quoting 82. sar2401:

The strange thing is that Ebola is the current FB disease of the week even though the chances of it ever spreading in the developed world is remote. If people want to worry about real diseases, look up extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis and drug resistant malaria. Those are real public health threats with higher mortality rates than properly treated Ebola.


I was referring to the media topic of the day, not the most troublesome disease to worry about.
Quoting 69. Gearsts:

384hr lol


While it is pretty funny that long range models have been so bad this year, I do believe this is the first time in months we have seen a long range model develop a strong storm in the Caribbean. Due to that, I find it to be more interesting than the constant crap we have been getting out of the GFS all season
It's a fast mover. They're either going to race it to shore or head further out-to-sea to avoid it.

New England (Montauk north to Nova Scotia) setting up for an epic swell. Lots of point breaks will be lighting up.


Quoting 63. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, it links up with the Canadian Low and in gets really wrapped up. It shows 992 mb in the North Atlantic. Those fishing boats up in that area better be ready for it.
Xmas weekend 89'

A Frozen Lake Pontchatrain Shoreline


Quoting 73. Patrap:








Living in the mid-latitudes rocks. The good news for Florida, the two big state schools are in the mid-latitudes. So at least the college graduates, many sort of, know what Winter is like. I did see frost in Orlando around Christmas 1983. That was impressive.

Orange County, in Texas and Florida, ditto Citrus county, named for agriculture that no longer happens in those counties because they are now too far North. Hard freeze last Winter, but the lime trees survived. I'm a brave man, growing citrus with nothing between my yard and Siberia but barbed wire fences. If a little AGW keeps 1899 from ever happening again, which would kill my citrus and might threaten my palms, than it isn't all bad.


Which reminds me, why is a school in Tampa called 'South Florida'? USF was established before UCF (checked Wiki), so USF should be UCF and UCF should be UECF. Anyway, impressive rain during the UConn game on ESPN last night.
Remembering a record cold Christmas 22 years ago

December 23, 2011|By Ken Kaye, Sun Sentinel

Although this should be an unusually warm Christmas, even by South Florida standards, it also marks the 22nd anniversary of one of the worst freezes in state history.

On Christmas Day in 1989, several all-time cold records were set throughout southeast Florida. The mercury plunged to 30 degrees Miami, 29 in Fort Lauderdale and 28 degrees in West Palm Beach.

According to Jim Lushine, a retired National Weather Service meteorologist, the biting cold moved in on Dec. 23 of that year.

“I remember the freeze causing rolling brown-outs as the power grid was strained to the limit,” he said.

He added that the much of the citrus crop in Central Florida was destroyed, resulting in a “southward shift in the citrus belt that continues today. It was probably the worst freeze in the past century.”

Interestingly, Lushine said severe freezes became “quite common” in South Florida as of 1977, the year it snowed as far south as Miami. He said the freezes continued through the 1980s and 1990s.

While there have been some freezing events in recent years, Lushine said they haven’t been as severe as those during the 20-year stretch, starting in 1977.
Test
Quoting 87. sar2401:

Never even been close officially in Key West. The all-time low was 41 in January, 1886.

Link
maybe one day it did but likely before mankinds time

I believe record low in Key West if 46F (unconfirmed, off the top of my head).

Quoting 81. Sfloridacat5:

Snow
Houston or Florida

Houston is a city and Florida is a state. So anywhere in Florida?

Houston averages .4" of snow annually. So it's really not a big deal for Houston to get a little bit of snow during the winter.

Now snow in Fort Myers or Palm Beach, that would be a big deal.

Recently I read a article and it said that Key West had never experienced frost before. I didn't know that and I'm still questioning it. I need to do some research to see if the article is accurate.

Quoting 85. WaterWitch11:



this is something that can't ever be looked at in percentages...anywhere on the planet always


quoting myself but i don't mind :)

its the same as the "ones" stating a major earthquake will hit the california within 30 years. THATS NOT SCIENCE its not even math...its a guess...ok i am done

Texas hurricane season unofficially ends tomorrow. Rita brought hurricane conditions to far SE Texas after the 21st, a major hit October 3rd, 1949 and a badly sheared NHC being generous Cat 1 hit near Houston mid October 1989, so it isn't officially over, but especially as slow as this year has been, it is over. Fat lady is singing.

Now, for Texas, time to look for more Odile remnant style East Pac action. Like 1994's Hurricane Rosa. This is the kind of year that could repeat a Rosa, with Odile as an appetizer.

Broken record, but 1985, Kate weakened to a Cat 2 just before landfall, Florida Panhandle, week before Thanksgiving. Truly a full six month season for Florida.
Winds here in interior SC beginning to pick up. The Low getting itself going. Looks to be a bomb over the North Atlantic.

Quoting 79. GatorWX:



Quoting 56. Sfloridacat5:



Fort Myers is great from November through April. It's sunny almost every day with relatively low humidity. We average only around 1.8" of rain during the winter months.


June - Sept is very warm and humid. We average around 10" of rain each month during the summer. During a normal summer, there are thunderstorms almost every afternoon. But the morning are usually sunny and you can get a half day in at the beach.


But as mentioned from Nov- April the weather is nearly pefect almost every day.




Yeah here's the Ft Myers average rainfall:

Jan: 1.89

Feb: 2.13

Mar: 2.84

Apr: 2.02

May 2.72

Jun: 10.28

Jul: 9.14

Aug: 10.21

Sep: 8.55

Oct: 2.67

Nov: 1.92

Dec: 1.69

Amarillo gets little precipitation during mid-Winter, but at 1100 meters and North of 35ºN, what does fall is usually snow. So comparing the entire state when Texas has High Plains and mountains, and Florida is essentially flat, is silly. Fair rules would be comparing Jacksonville, on I-10 with water to the East, and Houston, I-10, the Gulf to the East. But to make it interesting, anywhere in Florida.

And I'm sure the I-10 cities in Florida, at a similar latitude to Houston, although farther from the source regions of the coldest air, has hard freezes. Because one of the Florida posters mentioned that last week.
Quoting WaterWitch11:


this is something that can't ever be looked at in percentages...anywhere on the planet always


From what I've learned from NWS training, the effects of any such event are not what one might imagine either. I won't try to repeat it here, but some of you might find it interesting to research if you have some spare time.
Since I am not seeing new comments, I guess I won't wait to see the Euro.
116. JRRP
Quoting SLU:
The CMC joins the party


more north than GFS
Quoting Dakster:


I was referring to the media topic of the day, not the most troublesome disease to worry about.
As was I, but just wondering why real disease threats are not the topic of the day in the media. It seems we like to worry about threats that are statistically remote while ignoring the ones that are much more likely. Maybe talking about those is just too scary.
12Z Euro has strong Tropical Storm in the Gulf. Model also maxes out rainfall at 15" from New orleans over to FL. Could be serious flooding for many from LA to FL.
48.33" here in Longwood near Orlando and now the ground has turned very saturated so anymore rain will begin to start to cause flooding of low lying areas.
Quoting 98. ncstorm:

12z Euro is stronger with the Low when it nears NC..

00z run had a 1012 mb low..the 12z run has 1007 mb low..


If that pans out we could hit our annual average rainfall by the end of September. Currently at about 53" last I saw, annual is 57.61"
Quoting 67. Dakster:



I am sure since apparently I can see Russia from my house I should be able to see something like that too.

What's the elevation at your house?
Quoting 118. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro has strong Tropical Storm in the Gulf. Model also maxes out rainfall at 15" from New orleans over to FL. Could be serious flooding for many from LA to FL.


just checked the 12Z Euro, I see a low at 9 and 10 days but it is very weak
Quoting 111. HaoleboySurfEC:

Winds here in interior SC beginning to pick up. The Low getting itself going. Looks to be a bomb over the North Atlantic.


its bombing my head is killing me here headache to beat the band
Quoting 122. Hurricanes101:


just checked the 12Z Euro, I see a low at 9 and 10 days but it is very weak


1002mb. Not bad
The Euro has an amazing cutoff in precip right over the Houston area, sort of like 2011 and TS Lee that set half of East Texas on fire. Looks like the low peaks in intensity at 1000 mb.

So it might verify. Any forecast that doesn't rain in my personal Sahara might verify. Although last weeks rain should reduce the wildfire threat.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its bombing my head is killing me here headache to beat the band
These low pressure system get the arthritis in my neck all riled up too. I don't know why but it's worse during the time a low is approaching than when the pressure is actually at its low point. I'm lucky to rarely have headaches but there are times when my neck feels like it is going to wrench itself off my body.
Quoting 126. sar2401:

These low pressure system get the arthritis in my neck all riled up too. I don't know why but it's worse during the time a low is approaching than when the pressure is actually at its low point. I'm lucky to rarely have headaches but there are times when my neck feels like it is going to wrench itself off my body.
something coming 25 degree temp change baro dropping here 2926 now down from 3001 this time yesterday and still falling
Quoting EdMahmoud:
The Euro has an amazing cutoff in precip right over the Houston area, sort of like 2011 and TS Lee that set half of East Texas on fire. Looks like the low peaks in intensity at 1000 mb.

So it might verify. Any forecast that doesn't rain in my personal Sahara might verify. Although last weeks rain should reduce the wildfire threat.

What started the fires? Dry lightning for the storms? I remember the fires but I don't remember the cause.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah here's the Ft Myers average rainfall:

Jan: 1.89

Feb: 2.13

Mar: 2.84

Apr: 2.02

May 2.72

Jun: 10.28

Jul: 9.14

Aug: 10.21

Sep: 8.55

Oct: 2.67

Nov: 1.92

Dec: 1.69



Yep, we are dry from November - April. We have "fire season" because it gets so dry during the dry season.

One year (late Feb. - March) I counted 33 days in a row without any precipitation in my weather station. Everyday was sunny with average temperatures in the 70s.

A lot of my friends are seasonal. They live up in Michigan during the summer and down here from Oct - May.
I keep one of our cars in a friends garage while he's up in Michigan. He has an air conditioned 3 car garage. He'll be back down to Fort Myers in about two week.

Keeping a car in his garage gives us more room in our garage. Plus the air conditioning keeps the battery from wearing down in the heat.


DAIIY DOSE OF THUNDERSTORMS BLOWIN THRU SOUTH FL.
CLOSE LIGHTENING. DOG ABOUT TO HIDE UNDER THE BED.


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
something coming 25 degree temp change baro dropping here 2926 now down from 3001 this time yesterday and still falling
That's a huge pressure drop in one day. No wonder you have a headache.
12z UKMET

latest still sat central grt lakes

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
48.33" here in Longwood near Orlando and now the ground has turned very saturated so anymore rain will begin to start to cause flooding of low lying areas.
I've got 57.10" but it all came in the first five months of the year. Almost 20 inches came in April alone. From June 1 until today I've had 10.24" and four inches of that was from a four hour thunderstorm in July. Not only haven't we've had enough rain but what we've had has occurred in very short periods of time with nothing but dry weather in between. You should feel glad that your ground is saturated. You're getting a break now, which should help things dry out a little. Still, even some non-catastrophic flooding is preferable to drought and nothing but hot weather.
136. TXCWC
Quoting 122. Hurricanes101:



just checked the 12Z Euro, I see a low at 9 and 10 days but it is very weak


Actually starts to show development earlier than that - but in any case - for Euro to start becoming consistent with development has to mean something as the model never seems to development anything in the Atlantic - especially so far in advance. Based on prior GFS model runs and now Euro last 2 days I believe possible flooding will be the story with any system that may develop in the Gulf late next week
well...i've got a tad over 6" so far this year :-)
Quoting 129. sar2401:

What started the fires? Dry lightning for the storms? I remember the fires but I don't remember the cause.


Drought weakened trees toppling in 30 to 40 mph wind gusts onto powerlines.
Quoting 132. sar2401:

That's a huge pressure drop in one day. No wonder you have a headache.


later this evening just after midnight

141. TXCWC
Quoting 124. StormTrackerScott:



1002mb. Not bad


Very large system as well - which one would think would take sometime to spin up to anything significant as far as winds...leading me to believe rains will be the bigger issue with this...assuming anything developes at all
late sunday forecast
Quoting Dakster:


Deep South Miami-Dade (the county just north of Monroe County, which is where Key West is located) has had Frost...
I guess Key West is really more like a Caribbean island than a part of Florida. Being surrounded by all that warm water seems to be a pretty effective barrier against freezing cold.
Quoting 137. ricderr:

well...i've got a tad over 6" so far this year :-)
thats good should cut down the dust and the tumble weeds for ya at least
All the heavy rain is south of Fort Myers. All I've been getting all day is very light rain or sprinkles.

Some how that huge blob of convection that was in the GOM yesterday missed my location for the most part.

Two day rain total of only .30"
I was expecting a lot more rain than that. We're way behind average for the year so we need the rain here.

Just some eye candy for ya
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


later this evening just after midnight

Once the East Coast low combines with the one coming east from Canada is when the pressure really drops. A 1027 high to your south trying to fill a 994 low to your north should really have the winds howling by Monday at 1200z. Another deep low is following from the West Coast after this one moves on.

Quoting 136. TXCWC:



Actually starts to show development earlier than that - but in any case - for Euro to start becoming consistent with development has to mean something as the model never seems to development anything in the Atlantic - especially so far in advance. Based on prior GFS model runs and now Euro last 2 days I believe possible flooding will be the story with any system that may develop in the Gulf late next week
With both you and Scott in agreement I will take this more serious now. If Ed "Crystal Ball" Mahmoud also agrees, I will begin evacuation procedures.
Quoting TXCWC:


Very large system as well - which one would think would take sometime to spin up to anything significant as far as winds...leading me to believe rains will be the bigger issue with this...assuming anything developes at all
I'll take whatever rains I could get out of it. Somehow I think it would less than 15", but even an inch would be very welcome.
Quoting sar2401:
I guess Key West is really more like a Caribbean island than a part of Florida. Being surrounded by all that warm water seems to be a pretty effective barrier against freezing cold.


Cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter. The Keys also receive less rainfall (no east coast/westcoast sea breeze setup like the peninsula).


-- Is that a slight bit of counter-clockwise rotation along the mid-GOM south of MS?
Quoting 96. Dakster:



Deep South Miami-Dade (the county just north of Monroe County, which is where Key West is located) has had Frost...


Also snowed in the 70's from what I've been told. I've only been to Florida a couple of times but why does Monroe have a chunk of the SW mainland when all of the towns and cities are on the keys? I'm sure there are even Floridians who don't know the answer to this.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
All the heavy rain is south of Fort Myers. All I've been getting all day is very light rain or sprinkles.

Some how that huge blob of convection that was in the GOM yesterday missed my location for the most part.

Two day rain total of only .30"
I was expecting a lot more rain than that. We're way behind average for the year so we need the rain here.

So far the low is moving pretty quickly NE, which is exactly what the forecast called for. There's only a narrow band of mostly light rain over far south Florida and some scattered storm near Jacksonville. The faster it gets out of here the better for me since it won't interfere with the front coming south, which might have some rain associated with it. So far, the WPC has been way over forecasting rain for these fronts in Alabama.
Quoting 151. WalkingInTheSun:



-- Is that a slight bit of counter-clockwise rotation along the mid-GOM south of MS?



Are those two Lows going to merge in the NE?
Quoting 145. Sfloridacat5:

All the heavy rain is south of Fort Myers. All I've been getting all day is very light rain or sprinkles.

Some how that huge blob of convection that was in the GOM yesterday missed my location for the most part.

Two day rain total of only .30"
I was expecting a lot more rain than that. We're way behind average for the year so we need the rain here.


its funny how the rainfall works out some places get lots while in your case next to nothing
Quoting 147. sar2401:

Once the East Coast low combines with the one coming east from Canada is when the pressure really drops. A 1027 high to your south trying to fill a 994 low to your north should really have the winds howling by Monday at 1200z. Another deep low is following from the West Coast after this one moves on.


looks like it bottoms out at 996 maybe 995 along the offshore area of western newfoundland
It's September and the southern active jet stream looks pretty active.That's only one ingrediant though.Let's see if the cold will cooperate in late fall and winter this year.
Cloudy windy day in Charleston today. What are the chances we get some rain? Not a drop has fallen today.
Euro- yesterday near Pensacola, last night, not much, today, Western Louisiana, or, like any 9 or 10 day forecast, anyplace from Cameron, LA to Miami, or Brownsville to Veracruz, or no place at all, could be affected. Today's version would actually just miss my house with heavy rain. About an inch total, closer to a foot in parts of Louisiana.

Pretty general statement, no?
Quoting 154. SCwannabee:



Are those two Lows going to merge in the NE?



here at hr 42 or just after from now

Quoting SCwannabee:


Are those two Lows going to merge in the NE?
They will, but not until they both meet off Newfoundland.
Quoting 124. StormTrackerScott:



1002mb. Not bad


Right at 1000 mb per my PPV higher res graphics at its strongest.
Quoting 136. TXCWC:



Actually starts to show development earlier than that - but in any case - for Euro to start becoming consistent with development has to mean something as the model never seems to development anything in the Atlantic - especially so far in advance. Based on prior GFS model runs and now Euro last 2 days I believe possible flooding will be the story with any system that may develop in the Gulf late next week


I am not seeing it on the Euro models I have, someone please post. I see the low, but it does not look all that strong to me
I am very sensitive to rapid barometric changes. I get migranes that usually begin with a tightness in the neck. I recently found relief from taking 50mg of Butterbur per day. My daughter as well. Just wanted to pass that along. Read up on it. Must be a certified purified form.
Quoting 147. sar2401:

. Another deep low is following from the West Coast after this one moves on.





yeah hr 84 shows it looks like a 976 low strong
Quoting 154. SCwannabee:



Are those two Lows going to merge in the NE?


Heh, like a "superdud", er, I mean, "Super-duper-storm"? :o
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Also snowed in the 70's from what I've been told. I've only been to Florida a couple of times but why does Monroe have a chunk of the SW mainland when all of the towns and cities are on the keys? I'm sure there are even Floridians who don't know the answer to this.
When Monroe County was formed in 1823, Florida was still a territory and Monroe included all of south Florida and out to Key West. Other counties like Dade got carved out Monroe over time but, until about the time of the Civil War, Key West was the largest city in south Florida and just about the only city of any size or importance. Key West has always been the county seat of Monroe County, and politicians that were involved in creating Dade County had to let Monroe County keep the Keys to get the bill through the Legislature. Almost no one has ever lived in mainland Monroe, first because it was nothing but swamps and now because almost all of it is state or federal parks. It is the largest area of any US county with no county services of any kind available. Essentially, mainland Monroe is the Everglades National Park, and the jurisdiction for the few issues that ever arise has devolved to the National Park Service. It's a strange county.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


yeah hr 84 shows it looks like a 976 low strong
Looks like a classic January Pacific storm...except it's September. Pretty early for a low that strong. I have the feeling the tropics are going to be a fading memory after the end of September.
The size of the center of Fung-wong is just mind boggling. It makes the TRMM pass width look small. There is alot of extreme rain still left in it too.

FIERY SUNSET: Sky watchers in parts of California are finding that, suddenly, they can view sunspots without a solar telescope. Smoke from the epic King Fire is providing a natural filter. The fire, which began a week ago in a canyon east of Sacramento, has ballooned in size to 80,000 acres, larger than the city of Portland. Dense smoke has grounded planes and choked the air for hundreds of miles around the blaze--including a Sierra peak where the headquarters of Spaceweather.com is located. Because the fire is only 10% contained, fiery sunsets will likely continue for days to come.

so sad this was set intentionally. i have never heard of so many firefighters at one fire.
Good Grief!!

Fung-wong on MIMIC.
Quoting midgulfmom:
I am very sensitive to rapid barometric changes. I get migranes that usually begin with a tightness in the neck. I recently found relief from taking 50mg of Butterbur per day. My daughter as well. Just wanted to pass that along. Read up on it. Must be a certified purified form.
Thanks for reminding me. I've read up on it previously and it seems like it has some reasonable evidence it also helps with arthritis pain. We don't have any health food or vitamin type stores here and none of the drug stores have it so I'll have to order it off Amazon. I kept meaning to that but I just placed my order after seeing your post. It would be great if it works and I can cut down on the amount of narcotics I need to control the pain.
Fung-Wong..
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Saturday 20 September 2014
Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:29.8 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:76.6°F
Dewpoint:57.6°F
Humidity:51%
Wind:SW 23 gust 33 mph
Humidex: 83
Quoting 170. Skyepony:

The size of the center of Fung-wong is just mind boggling. It makes the TRMM pass width look small. There is alot of extreme rain still left in it too.




hmmm couldn't get that to play ..
There's been some earthquakes the Philippines today. Fung-Wong left alot of water there.

Quoting 178. whitewabit:



hmmm couldn't get that to play ..

It plays for me. It's a quicktime movie. There's a wall of white heavy rain in there & it's not even the heavier looking side.
Quoting 180. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




front just sliding over me now .. am under the red blob right in the middle of the radar .. should be 10-15 degrees cooler tomorrow then today ..

80 degrees here at 4:30 ..
Updated: 3:54 PM CDT on September 20, 2014


Partly Cloudy
79 °F

Partly Cloudy


Humidity: 69%
Dew Point: 68 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the WSW
Pressure: 29.85 in (Falling)
Visibility: 8.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 5.70 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 4000 ft

Quoting 181. Skyepony:

There's been some earthquakes the Philippines today. Fung-Wong left alot of water there.


It plays for me. It's a quicktime movie. There's a wall of white heavy rain in there & it's not even the heavier looking side.


Tropical storms unfortunately aren't the only threat right now for the Manila area; there is volcano Mayon to boot:

Pets, livestock around Mayon to be evacuated too
Rappler, Sept 20, 1024
After evacuating tens of thousands of people, soldiers and cops will also move out livestock and pets around the restive Mayon volcano to keep their owners from returning to danger zones ..

Quoting 126. sar2401:

These low pressure system get the arthritis in my neck all riled up too. I don't know why but it's worse during the time a low is approaching than when the pressure is actually at its low point. I'm lucky to rarely have headaches but there are times when my neck feels like it is going to wrench itself off my body.
Sar, have you ever tried capsaicin ointments or creams? I swear by the stuff for tendon and ligament pain, although my aches are from weightlifting. Just about every powerlifter I know uses it. I get the big Equi-Block bottle, made for horses but safe for humans. It's the same strength as the stuff they sell in drug stores, but about half the price per unit volume.
If you use it, make sure to wash your hands thoroughly after putting it on because it can cause inflammation of mucous membranes and other ...er.... sensitive areas....
Quoting 167. sar2401:

When Monroe County was formed in 1823, Florida was still a territory and Monroe included all of south Florida and out to Key West. Other counties like Dade got carved out Monroe over time but, until about the time of the Civil War, Key West was the largest city in south Florida and just about the only city of any size or importance. Key West has always been the county seat of Monroe County, and politicians that were involved in creating Dade County had to let Monroe County keep the Keys to get the bill through the Legislature. Almost no one has ever lived in mainland Monroe, first because it was nothing but swamps and now because almost all of it is state or federal parks. It is the largest area of any US county with no county services of any kind available. Essentially, mainland Monroe is the Everglades National Park, and the jurisdiction for the few issues that ever arise has devolved to the National Park Service. It's a strange county.


Very informative. I knew Miami is a relatively young city but didn't know about Key West being more important back then.
Quoting 182. whitewabit:



front just sliding over me now .. am under the red blob right in the middle of the radar .. should be 10-15 degrees cooler tomorrow then today ..

80 degrees here at 4:30 ..
this time yesterday it was 55 outside right now 76 feel like 83
the cloud is moving in now gonna be a wet overnight and sunday they say
I sure picked a bad day to get a suntan.

Quoting 189. Grothar:

I sure picked a bad day to get a suntan.

maybe tomorrow will be better
Quoting 189. Grothar:

I sure picked a bad day to get a suntan.




A nice day up here in West Palm. Not hot, breezy and a few showers.
Quoting 192. GeoffreyWPB:



A nice day up here in West Palm. Not hot, breezy and a few showers.


It's still raining.
194. flsky
Rainy and breezy here in Ponce Inlet. Coming down pretty good atm.

Quoting 193. Grothar:



It's still raining.
Quoting 191. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Now that is an interesting looking system.
My wife's knees always hurt, but it is usually on approach and not when it is on top of us.

Anyway, on vis satellite it looks like it is trying to get that comma shape. NE winds have also died down here in interior SC.

Quoting 123. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its bombing my head is killing me here headache to beat the band
We am going to my 500th high school reunion at the end of the week. If I live in Florida, how could I possibly go there without a tan. They expect me to look good.
Quoting 194. flsky:

Rainy and breezy here in Ponce Inlet. Coming down pretty good atm.




We really had some pretty good ones all day and last night. No serious flooding but some ponding in some places.
Quoting 189. Grothar:

I sure picked a bad day to get a suntan.




You sure did Gro.
You are under a ton of rain.
But you dont need any enhancements.
If thats really you in that pic, you are a very handsome man for your age lol.
You're welcome.
( shhh...dont forget to mail the check)
Hey folks…2o year independant catastrophe adjuster…longtime follower…can somebody give me the links to the best models? Greatly appreciated…worked every major hurricane since 1996…the things I have seen….
It stopped raining in most of SEFL and it appears that's it, for now.
Today we had thunder as loud as I've ever heard, since yesterday.
The rain gauge has a precedented .42 in it after a quarter of a day filled with semi-persistent drizzle.
202. JRRP
203. SLU
WARNING: For entertain purposes ONLY. These images shall not be used to supersede any forecast issued by your local met office.

Early North Shore swells...the locals will be happy. Some juice before the pro circus comes to town.

Quoting 169. sar2401:

Looks like a classic January Pacific storm...except it's September. Pretty early for a low that strong. I have the feeling the tropics are going to be a fading memory after the end of September.
Quoting 202. JRRP:


From almost a full fledged hurricane to a barely staying alive storm XD.The GFS does it again
206. JRRP
Quoting washingtonian115:
From almost a full fledged hurricane to a barely staying alive storm XD.The GFS does it again

at least is better than nothing jeje :p
Quoting 205. washingtonian115:
From almost a full fledged hurricane to a barely staying alive storm XD.The GFS does it again


You still want to combat me for saying the models are showing 10" plus of rain over FL the next 2 weeks? Looks like my forecast based on the models will verify again. Also how's my prediction of 5 to 7 named storms coming along? pretty dam good prediction there too.

Epic fail though was the strong El-Nino. However we will have a 2 year El-Nino though since the strong El-nino didn't verify.

Quoting 206. JRRP:

at least is better than nothing jeje :p



Eastern Caribbean is toast from here on out it appears.

Quoting 207. StormTrackerScott:



You still want to combat me for saying the models are showing 10" plus of rain over FL the next 2 weeks? Looks like my forecast based on the models will verify again. Also how's my prediction of 5 to 7 named storms coming along? pretty dam good prediction there too.

Epic fail though was the strong El-Nino. However we will have a 2 year El-Nino though since the strong El-nino didn't verify.


Scott no one was attacking you with my recent post.I posted the meme because the GFS went from showing almost a full blown hurricane in the central caribbean to a weak storm going out to sea over the northern Antillies.
notting going on in the tropical right now!!


we are going to say goodbye to invest 95L and the Eastern Atlantic hurricane is over for this year.
212. flsky
I'm about 3 blocks west of the ocean and I can hear the waves from here. Must be getting kinda rough over there.
Quoting 207. StormTrackerScott:



You still want to combat me for saying the models are showing 10" plus of rain over FL the next 2 weeks? Looks like my forecast based on the models will verify again. Also how's my prediction of 5 to 7 named storms coming along? pretty dam good prediction there too.

Epic fail though was the strong El-Nino. However we will have a 2 year El-Nino though since the strong El-nino didn't verify.




I guess you forgot about the 30" you forecasted last week...
Quoting 187. win1gamegiantsplease:



Very informative. I knew Miami is a relatively young city but didn't know about Key West being more important back then.
Sar left out a few interesting facts, Smallest Post Office, Ochoppee, right up the road. Swamp ape festival just north. I used to fish in those peoples front yard, and went to High School with Wootens. Indian Key has a very interesting history, and was made the County seat by a pushy New Yorker name of John Houseman. That kind of backfired on him when he signed a piece of paper unpopular with the natives. Prior to this treachery Chekika, a local tribal chief, thought Housman was his friend and trading partner. It got pretty ugly when the truth came out.
Rain in Florida in September how unusual!
Quoting 193. Grothar:



It's still raining.


Now I'm not so upset that I missed the car show at the ACREAGE COMMUNITY PARK.
Quoting 197. Grothar:

We am going to my 500th high school reunion at the end of the week. If I live in Florida, how could I possibly go there without a tan. They expect me to look good.


What was the theme for your prom? Shakespeare, Aztec?
is this the new norm? Texas gets most tropical moisture from eastern pacific. While the soil drought may have eased the water supply needs a lot more. I feel for California, if this is new norm.
219. flsky
Not usual rain in Ponce Inlet. Usually the storms swoop in dump and crash/bang then swoop out again.
Quoting 215. jjjerry1:

Rain in Florida in September how unusual!
Quoting 216. MiamiNative:



Now I'm not so upset that I missed the car show at the ACREAGE COMMUNITY PARK.


The convertibles were the best. They converted from a car to a pool
Quoting 217. win1gamegiantsplease:



What was the theme for your prom? Shakespeare, Aztec?


Erik the Orange!. He was the son of Erik the Red and Borghilda the Yellow.
Normally our reservoir's and aquifers are charged by Gulf systems stalling and dumping huge amounts west of IH 35 or Balcones escarpment. That is the IH35 corridor water supply region. Our Achilles tendon, needing big rain west (dryer) area to support one of the fastest growing area's of country. I've been here most of my long adult life, memorial day flood being my most memorable. Researching, we are known as flash flood capital and may have the biggest rain ever on this globe. Anyone know about this event?
Quoting 222. centex:

Normally our reservoir's and aquifers are charged by Gulf systems stalling and dumping huge amounts west of IH 35 or Balcones escarpment. That is the IH35 corridor water supply region. Our Achilles tendon, needing big rain west (dryer) area to support one of the fastest growing area's of country. I've been here most of my long adult life, memorial day flood being my most memorable. Researching, we are known as flash flood capital and may have the biggest rain ever on this globe. Anyone know about this event?

Texas certainly doesn't have the "biggest rain" on the planet. The issue with Texas is that it can have some very intense rainfalls and also has a number of low water crossings. There can be months and sometimes years between big rainfalls, then a big rain event comes again and people are complacent. The biggest cause of fatalities in flash floods for that area are people driving into flood waters.
Quoting 218. centex:

is this the new norm? Texas gets most tropical moisture from eastern pacific. While the soil drought may have eased the water supply needs a lot more. I feel for California, if this is new norm.
If you drive west from Houston you will notice where it turns to grass thicket. Every once and a while you will see an old farmhouse with a big cottonwood, oak, pine tree, or other species that was planted for shade. That is what needs to be there to stop the sun and the resulting wind for the moisture to collect. Bad farming practices have killed West Texas and part of the East. Sure, I could grow just about anything in Florida, but the plants, trees, and animals given by the Creator maintain the balance.


its look like a northeaster coming up the coast not anything tropical!!
Quoting SLU:
WARNING: For entertain purposes ONLY. These images shall not be used to supersede any forecast issued by your local met office.

Ok in two weeks Puerto Rico is going to be impacted by a Little storm...yes sure..ha,ha
Quoting 221. Grothar:



Erik the Orange!. He was the son of Erik the Red and Borghilda the Yellow.
Har Har! Congratulations on your weather event. I hope the giant pythons don't come out of the swamp to sun in your yard. Any green anacondas sighted in Miami yet? I remember when the monkeys were climbing telephone poles and tipping garbage cans back in the 80's. Miami, exotic pet ground zero. We just caught a really rare lizard from Missouri here in Sarasota, and my friend described it's bite as extremely painful. It was 1 ft. long and runs on it's hind legs like a dinosaur, but extremely fast. It is also a chameleon with beautiful colors. At least it was native to this continent.
Just a friendly reminder that the AHS does not end until Nov. 30. Climatologically speaking we actually have a secondary peak in the middle part of Oct. We are pretty much a little over the half-way mark of the season, so it is reasonable to say we get 3-5 more named storms of which 1-2 become hurricanes and 1 becoming a major hurricane. My numbers still stand at 10/5/2. And unless something drastic happens one way or the other, we will likely end up with numbers similar to last year (except major hurricanes), and it will be really interesting to see if this decrease in activity and ACE continue into next year. What I will be watching for in years to come is if we get a La Nina and the season performs average to below average. That will be a telling sign of the flip between the quieter phase of the AMO (excluding AGW influences to the AHS).
Quoting 227. Pallis1:

Har Har! Congratulations on your weather event. I hope the giant pythons don't come out of the swamp to sun in your yard. Any green anacondas sighted in Miami yet? I remember when the monkeys were climbing telephone poles and tipping garbage cans back in the 80's. Miami, exotic pet ground zero. We just caught a really rare lizard from Missouri here in Sarasota, and my friend described it's bite as extremely painful. It was 1 ft. long and runs on it's hind legs like a dinosaur, but extremely fast. It is also a chameleon with beautiful colors. At least it was native to this continent.


You have seen a lot of interesting things.
Quoting 229. OceanMoan:



You have seen a lot of interesting things.
When I have time off I head straight for the sticks, but Miami is one place that attracts strange.There is a new invasive lizard that I have not seen yet, but we expect to soon. It is Chilean in origin and has been sighted north and south of us. If I remember correctly they get 4 ft , and are egg eaters. Who knows what they will do in this environment?
Quoting 230. Pallis1:

When I have time off I head straight for the sticks, but Miami is one place that attracts strange.



Miami sounds like a fun place!
Quoting 230. Pallis1:

When I have time off I head straight for the sticks, but Miami is one place that attracts strange.There is a new invasive lizard that I have not seen yet, but we expect to soon. It is Chilean in origin and has been sighted north and south of us. If I remember correctly they get 4 ft , and are egg eaters. Who knows what they will do in this environment?


Yep... Seen 'em around. And nothing will eat them, so outside of us humans, they have no natural predators here. And plenty of food to grow and breed.

Hey did you see the giant African snails that loved to eat stucco? Those were a hit too. But thankfully I believe they have been eradicated.
Very Active and Strong Southern Jetstream funneling moisture, Coastal Low riding along the Jet, key for the winter, active fall pattern setting up.
Quoting EdwardinAlaska:

Sar, have you ever tried capsaicin ointments or creams? I swear by the stuff for tendon and ligament pain, although my aches are from weightlifting. Just about every powerlifter I know uses it. I get the big Equi-Block bottle, made for horses but safe for humans. It's the same strength as the stuff they sell in drug stores, but about half the price per unit volume.
If you use it, make sure to wash your hands thoroughly after putting it on because it can cause inflammation of mucous membranes and other ...er.... sensitive areas....
I have, Ed. It makes the skin on my neck so hot and uncomfortable that I forget about the cervical disk pain until it wears off. Unfortunately, exchanging one kind of pain for another isn't my idea of progress. :-) I used to use it for things like charley horses and it worked well for that. It's just difficult to find anything that's going to get all the way into a bad disk that you can apply topically.
Quoting 234. sar2401:

I have, Ed. It makes the skin on my neck so hot and uncomfortable that I forget about the cervical disk pain until it wears off. Unfortunately, exchanging one kind of pain for another isn't my idea of progress. :-) I used to use it for things like charley horses and it worked well for that. It's just difficult to find anything that's going to get all the way into a bad disk that you can apply topically.


Sorry to hear that Sar.
GFS shows another potential low trying to form along the Southern Jetstream.
Quoting 228. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Just a friendly reminder that the AHS does not end until Nov. 30. Climatologically speaking we actually have a secondary peak in the middle part of Oct. We are pretty much a little over the half-way mark of the season, so it is reasonable to say we get 3-5 more named storms of which 1-2 become hurricanes and 1 becoming a major hurricane. My numbers still stand at 10/5/2. And unless something drastic happens one way or the other, we will likely end up with numbers similar to last year (except major hurricanes), and it will be really interesting to see if this decrease in activity and ACE continue into next year. What I will be watching for in years to come is if we get a La Nina and the season performs average to below average. That will be a telling sign of the flip between the quieter phase of the AMO (excluding AGW influences to the AHS). well the 3.4 region has been generally neutral yet if you look at the atmosphere, it is reminiscent of a strong el nino. look at the EPAC... 8 major hurricanes. very odd. next season i think the hurricane season will be warm neutral/weak el nino and i expect the epac activity to go down. i expect an average atlantic season next season. 12-6-3. it will be much better than the last 4 seasons.. gut feeling.
Quoting 230. Pallis1:

When I have time off I head straight for the sticks, but Miami is one place that attracts strange.There is a new invasive lizard that I have not seen yet, but we expect to soon. It is Chilean in origin and has been sighted north and south of us. If I remember correctly they get 4 ft , and are egg eaters. Who knows what they will do in this environment?


I am pretty sure if I saw that I would be terrified.
Quoting 231. OceanMoan:




Miami sounds like a fun place!
It can actually be a bit dangerous. I would dip my toes in the water tentatively. They know if you are not from there with a glance. I walked from one end of Little Havana to the other in 84', and it was the 4'th of July that day. Wow! Cars jumping, nothing in English for 15 miles, and mind you this was the real Miami Vice days. Then there is the North side. Let's not go there. During Andrew my friends set up a circle of campers in a blasted section and left one person there with a shotgun every day while the rest went to work. They were packing at work too.
Coastal low evolution.
Quoting 239. Pallis1:

It can actually be a bit dangerous. I would dip my toes in the water tentatively. They know if you are not from there with a glance. I walked from one end of Little Havana to the other in 84', and it was the 4'th of July that day. Wow! Cars jumping, nothing in English for 15 miles, and mind you this was the real Miami Vice days. Then there is the North side. Let's not go there. During Andrew my friends set up a circle of campers in a blasted section and left one person there with a shotgun every day while the rest went to work. They were packing at work too.


We had a tank guarding the neighborhood after Andrew,,,
Quoting 241. Dakster:



We had a tank guarding the neighborhood after Andrew,,,



Hmmm, maybe Miami will not be on the places I want to visit list after all.
Quoting 238. OceanMoan:



I am pretty sure if I saw that I would be terrified.
I plan to kill and cook them when spotted. Almost everything is better cajun fried or possibly tempura with cajun powder, well I am sure they are delicious, other wise the people in Chile would not raise them for food. Good cooks down there I hear.
Quoting 222. centex:

Normally our reservoir's and aquifers are charged by Gulf systems stalling and dumping huge amounts west of IH 35 or Balcones escarpment. That is the IH35 corridor water supply region. Our Achilles tendon, needing big rain west (dryer) area to support one of the fastest growing area's of country. I've been here most of my long adult life, memorial day flood being my most memorable. Researching, we are known as flash flood capital and may have the biggest rain ever on this globe. Anyone know about this event?


The whole Gulf Coast region has had a quiet period. The local news explains the moisture real easily stating that the moisture coming off the gulf provides a good low level moisture while these storms coming off the Pacific provide a good mid/upper level moisture. It really just depends on the timing that these 2 collide that cause these floods. Just give it time and we will be getting some gulf systems, the last good one we had was in 2010 (Hermine).

The only rainfall record that I know of in the state that is only a US record is the 42 inches in 24 hours at Alvin, Tx.

And yes, we are in flash flood alley. Area shown in this picture.



In the end, I am afraid this stuff is the new norm. Sure we have had great floods and great droughts throughout history. It's just that, each time the year gets hotter and we have a dry year, it gets harder and harder to get out of our droughts.
Quoting 241. Dakster:



We had a tank guarding the neighborhood after Andrew,,,
Did you take the flag with you when you left or is that Groth's job? Heh, you knew that old joke was a comin.
Quoting 242. OceanMoan:




Hmmm, maybe Miami will not be on the places I want to visit list after all.


Last I checked Miami was not in a state of emergency.... And the touristy areas are nice to visit. Pallis and I can steer you away from the areas you should avoid. We can keep you out of the urban warfare areas.

Although it depends on what you are trying to do when you visit. There is city/party life, beach life, and rural areas to see/stay in.
Quoting 243. Pallis1:

I plan to kill and cook them when spotted. Almost everything is better cajun fried or possibly tempura with cajun powder, well I am sure they are delicious, other wise the people in Chile would not raise them for food. Good cooks down there I hear.


Sounds gross to me, but I am a vegetarian. Let us know how that works out for you if you ever catch one. :-)
Quoting 245. Pallis1:

Did you take the flag with you when you left or is that Groth's job? Heh, you knew that old joke was a comin.


Left it with a neighbor... Not all Americans have left.
Quoting 246. Dakster:



Last I checked Miami was not in a state of emergency.... And the touristy areas are nice to visit. Pallis and I can steer you away from the areas you should avoid. We can keep you out of the urban warfare areas.

Although it depends on what you are trying to do when you visit. There is city/party life, beach life, and rural areas to see/stay in.


I am hoping to head down to Key West in a few years, and thought Miami would be a good place to spend a day or two, on the way.
Quoting 202. JRRP:




Lookin' more legit each run. GFS is on to nothing, I mean something, wait, no, probably nothing.
Quoting 247. OceanMoan:



Sounds gross to me, but I am a vegetarian. Let us know how that works out for you if you ever catch one. :-)


I am with you on that and I am no vegetarian...

So what you want to get rid of the lizards is a nice cold spell. They can't handle the cold.
Quoting 201. CosmicEvents:

It stopped raining in most of SEFL and it appears that's it, for now.
Today we had thunder as loud as I've ever heard, since yesterday.
The rain gauge has a precedented .42 in it after a quarter of a day filled with semi-persistent drizzle.


It's become very breezy here in swFL. About a .25-.5" today. Haven't checked, but I'd assume temps stayed right around 80. Good day off!
Quoting 243. Pallis1:

I plan to kill and cook them when spotted. Almost everything is better cajun fried or possibly tempura with cajun powder, well I am sure they are delicious, other wise the people in Chile would not raise them for food. Good cooks down there I hear.


Tegu
I think this is what you are talking about. Those would make nice boots...
Quoting 241. Dakster:



We had a tank guarding the neighborhood after Andrew,,,
Oh, I forgot to ask .... how is the adjustment going? People nice, finding the things you need, and generally getting along. It is easy for me because I grew up in that environment. Takes as long as a turtles hair.
Quoting 249. OceanMoan:



I am hoping to head down to Key West in a few years, and thought Miami would be a good place to spend a day or two, on the way.


What is "fun" for you? Going out on a boat? Going shopping? Going clubbing/night life? There is a good zoo, seaquairum, sandy beaches that go on for miles. Everglades with air boating where you can see gators, birds and snakes.
Quoting 254. Pallis1:

Oh, I forgot to ask .... how is the adjustment going? People nice, finding the things you need, and generally getting along. It is easy for me because I grew up in that environment. Takes as long as a turtles hair.


Yeah, This is where I need to be and what I should have done a long time ago.
Second launch attempt tonight!



This chart frightens me. If it verifies, it means the Houston region will experience its first major hurricane strike since Ike (2008) on Sept. 30, 2014. What is worse, this is from the Euro. The Euro usually overrules all the other models when it comes to forecasting tropical storm/hurricane strike, right?
Quoting 255. Dakster:



What is "fun" for you? Going out on a boat? Going shopping? Going clubbing/night life? There is a good zoo, seaquairum, sandy beaches that go on for miles. Everglades with air boating where you can see gators, birds and snakes.


Awesome, I didn't know Miami had a zoo. The air boating thing sounds fun too.
Quoting pureet1948:


This chart frightens me. If it verifies, it means the Houston region will experience its first major hurricane strike since Ike (2008) on Sept. 30, 2014. What is worse, this is from the Euro. The Euro usually overrules all the other models when it comes to forecasting tropical storm/hurricane strike, right?


You're being sarcastic, right? That's little more than a disorganized tropical storm being portrayed on the model.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Just a friendly reminder that the AHS does not end until Nov. 30. Climatologically speaking we actually have a secondary peak in the middle part of Oct. We are pretty much a little over the half-way mark of the season, so it is reasonable to say we get 3-5 more named storms of which 1-2 become hurricanes and 1 becoming a major hurricane. My numbers still stand at 10/5/2. And unless something drastic happens one way or the other, we will likely end up with numbers similar to last year (except major hurricanes), and it will be really interesting to see if this decrease in activity and ACE continue into next year. What I will be watching for in years to come is if we get a La Nina and the season performs average to below average. That will be a telling sign of the flip between the quieter phase of the AMO (excluding AGW influences to the AHS).
Well, looking at the JSL view, which highlights deep convection, this is what I see. The MDR is almost completely void of deep convection. What little convection there is seems to diurnal and more dry air and shear is interfering with any attempts by storms to organize. SST's in the MDR are also starting to cool ever so slightly but it's a sign of things to come.

The Gulf is once again being invaded by a cold front, bringing more dry and cooler air into the Gulf. As we saw with 92L, the Gulf is certainly not primed for a tropical storm. There's a much stronger cold front coming down Tuesday that should put unseasonably cool air into the middle Gulf. The Florida low is now northbound to team up with low coming out of Canada and get the nor'easter season started. There's a really deep Pacific low that's going to repeat this whole sequence next week.

The Caribbean is also devoid of deep convection except over land. There's a tropical wave moving through the western BOC right now. Instead of stopping there and maybe forming a low, the wave is going to move right across Mexico and into the Pacific and at least set off an area of disturbed weather there. This is probably the fourth TW to do the same thing. The few areas of low pressure that have developed in the Caribbean never became more than an area of low pressure, and this has been going on since May, even with the GFS creating ghost storms the entire time.

I'm not saying the season is over but our best chance is in the GOM and that seems very unlikely through the end of September. I can see another Arthur type storm off the SE coast also but I really can't see any named storms in the MDR or the Caribbean for the rest of the season. I think we get two more named storms this season, but the chance of another major is maybe 10%. Climatology may still win out but, looking at the season so far and current conditions, it's very hard to be optimistic.

Quoting 253. PedleyCA:



Tegu
I think this is what you are talking about. Those would make nice boots...
Oh, I was not planning on throwing away the skin. Some rich biker wants that for his seat! Yes that is the offensive lizard. I think they are considered omnivores.
Seminoles 10, Clemson 10 3rd Qtr.
Quoting 259. OceanMoan:



Awesome, I didn't know Miami had a zoo. The air boating thing sounds fun too.


Miami has an AWESOME zoo. Animals are out in the open and not in cages.

http://www.zoomiami.org/

I really liked an airboat ride in Broward and have taken out of state family there and they had a really good time too. It is at the sawgrass recreational park. They have a mini zoo that you get to tour as well.

www.evergladestours.com

and there is one in deep south dade that is also good.

http://www.everglades.com/

If you go to the one in South Dade and you time it right, you need to go to Roberts Fruit Stand and Knauss Berry Farms. You will definitely pass Roberts, but not necessarily Knauss Berry...
Quoting 262. Pallis1:

Oh, I was not planning on throwing away the skin. Some rich biker wants that for his seat! Yes that is the offensive lizard. I think they are considered omnivores.


And since they are an exotic and a pest, you can legally hunt/kill them. (Although I would advise against using a firearm in city limits.)
Quoting 264. Dakster:



Miami has an AWESOME zoo. Animals are out in the open and not in cages.

http://www.zoomiami.org/

I really liked an airboat ride in Broward and have taken out of state family there and they had a really good time too. It is at the sawgrass recreational park. They have a mini zoo that you get to tour as well.

www.evergladestours.com

and there is one in deep south dade that is also good.

http://www.everglades.com/

If you go to the one in South Dade and you time it right, you need to go to Roberts Fruit Stand and Knauss Berry Farms. You will definitely pass Roberts, but not necessarily Knauss Berry...


Thanks for the info, I bookmarked the pages.
Quoting 256. Dakster:



Yeah, This is where I need to be and what I should have done a long time ago.
Glad to hear it. It has been my experience that you can really get what you want if you know the right people. I get to know everyone in town as quick as I can. Funny how the grapevine runs quicker than you sometimes. I have had complete strangers come up to me saying "so, you want to know where the old silver mines are, do ya Sonny"? Yes Sir, would be the correct answer.
Quoting 267. Pallis1:

Glad to hear it. It has been my experience that you can really get what you want if you know the right people. I get to know everyone in town as quick as I can. Funny how the grapevine runs quicker than you sometimes. I have had complete strangers come up to me saying "so, you want to know where the old silver mines are, do ya Sonny"? Yes Sir, would be the correct answer.


Yep. and I have found some really great places to get things...
Quoting 259. OceanMoan:



Awesome, I didn't know Miami had a zoo. The air boating thing sounds fun too.


The Miami Zoo is quite a thing to see. One of the nicest we've visited. I lived in Miami many years. The Zoo was badly destroyed during Andrew, especially he aviary.
Fall is in T-MINUS 47 hours.
Quoting 269. Grothar:



The Miami Zoo is quite a thing to see. One of the nicest we've visited. I lived in Miami many years. The Zoo was badly destroyed during Andrew, especially he aviary.


Have you been there recently? It is pretty amazing. It has been rebuilt since then... and expanded on. We did training for work at the Zoo... And my neighbor was on the board of directors and took us around in a golf cart and into the areas that were "restricted".

Quoting 265. Dakster:



And since they are an exotic and a pest, you can legally hunt/kill them. (Although I would advise against using a firearm in city limits.)
That is the weird thing. Tilapia is a very offensive exotic species and they are listing it on the official Florida species picture chart. It is almost like they planned it. We should be able to hunt hogs all year as they are an invasive species brought by the Spanish, and yet there is a season and they are destroying our parks with this protection. In the old days there were bounties on coyotes when the population got to high. They got too high because we got rid of the upper predators. Now the same thing is happening again, yet we are not allowed to do anything about it. I was actually going to use a fishing pole. Carnivorous iizards are usually pretty dumb, aggressive creatures. All you need to catch an alligator is a beer can with a big treble hook, so I was going to go to the save a lot and get me a dozen eggs, make a little nest out in de open and fights on!
Quoting 271. Dakster:



Have you been there recently? It is pretty amazing. It has been rebuilt since then... and expanded on. We did training for work at the Zoo... And my neighbor was on the board of directors and took us around in a golf cart and into the areas that were "restricted".




It has been a number of years since we've been there. I miss Miami. It really is a beautiful city.
Quoting 272. Pallis1:

That is the weird thing. Tilapia is a very offensive exotic species and they are listing it on the official Florida species picture chart. It is almost like they planned it. We should be able to hunt hogs all year as they are an invasive species brought by the Spanish, and yet there is a season and they are destroying our parks with this protection. In the old days there were bounties on coyotes when the population got to high. They got too high because we got rid of the upper predators. Now the same thing is happening again, yet we are not allowed to do anything about it. I was actually going to use a fishing pole. Carnivorous iizards are usually pretty dumb, aggressive creatures. All you need to catch an alligator is a beer can with a big treble hook, so I was going to go to the save a lot and get me a dozen eggs, make a little nest out in de open and fights on!


Can't hunt gators in NC, that could land you in jail. And as one particular viral video showed a couple years ago our gator wrasslers aren't the greatest apparently lol. There's an old guy in Wilmington or maybe Southport or Leland can't remember but he's been capturing "problem gators" forever. My definition of a problem alligator are the ones that follow my bait when I'm fishing.
Quoting Dakster:


Sorry to hear that Sar.
Yeah, it sucks, but it's just part of getting old. I'm actually really lucky at my age that that's the only area of pain my body has. No back pain, no leg pains, almost no headaches, and reasonably spry for an old geezer. I even sleep pretty good and my other parts still work. All in all, I really can't complain but, when the neck acts up, it does set me to whining sometimes. As you well know, after enough years on the job, you almost always end up with some debilitating injury, and I was lucky to escape that.
***POSSIBLE*** Rafael Part II



By the way... we are really unlucky this september :///// ALL... ALL islands in Lesser Antilles are getting rain... EXCEPT us.

Quoting Pallis1:
That is the weird thing. Tilapia is a very offensive exotic species and they are listing it on the official Florida species picture chart. It is almost like they planned it. We should be able to hunt hogs all year as they are an invasive species brought by the Spanish, and yet there is a season and they are destroying our parks with this protection. In the old days there were bounties on coyotes when the population got to high. They got too high because we got rid of the upper predators. Now the same thing is happening again, yet we are not allowed to do anything about it. I was actually going to use a fishing pole. Carnivorous iizards are usually pretty dumb, aggressive creatures. All you need to catch an alligator is a beer can with a big treble hook, so I was going to go to the save a lot and get me a dozen eggs, make a little nest out in de open and fights on!
Wild pigs in California have gotten so bad that it's open season all year, or at least was so in 2005 when I left. They completely destroy hillsides rooting around and have caused tremendous erosion problems. They can also be about the most dangerous animals you can run into, especially at night. During breeding season, they are are particularly dangerous when they have their piglets with them. We'd have missing person searches at night and regularly have search teams up in trees trying to escape these beasts.

The closest I came to being really seriously injured was running up on one unexpectedly at about 3 in the morning. She weighed abut 700 pounds and had tusks about 4 feet long that were as sharp as a cutlass. The closest tree was only about 15 feet tall and it wasn't very strong. She was about 6 feet long and was trying to climb the tree to get me. I pepper sprayed her, which usually makes them run off, but it just made her even more mad.

She was able to get one of those tusks in my pant leg and rip my pants and good part of the meat of my leg with it. That was enough. I shot her three times with my .45 but I was shooting in the dark because I'd lost me headlight in the dash up the tree, and it didn't even slow her down. She was coming at me again to finish off my leg, which was gushing blood. I got just enough light from the moon to see her well and finished her off with two head shots. I got out of the tree and found i couldn't stand on my cut up leg. I was able to raise some other team members on the radio and get littered out to the helicopter. I needed three units of blood, 64 stitches, and two surgeries for tendon and muscle repairs. The ER doc said I had maybe 10 minutes to going unconscious from blood loss. If I had fallen out of that tree unconscious, I'm pretty sure she would have finished me off.

They can kill all the wild pigs in California and it would be a good thing as far as I'm concerned.
Quoting 274. win1gamegiantsplease:



Can't hunt gators in NC, that could land you in jail. And as one particular viral video showed a couple years ago our gator wrasslers aren't the greatest apparently lol. There's an old guy in Wilmington or maybe Southport or Leland can't remember but he's been capturing "problem gators" forever. My definition of a problem alligator are the ones that follow my bait when I'm fishing.
You could land him and beat him with a two by four, and then release him. He will come back for the same lure in about a minute. Memory slightly better than a goldfish. I used to wade up to my neck with 12 to 15 footers off Alligator Alley before the feds walled it off. As long as you don't splash they will just swim by, usually. One small splash and you are done for. That signals that you are injured.
Quoting 232. Dakster:



Hey did you see the giant African snails that loved to eat stucco? Those were a hit too. But thankfully I believe they have been eradicated.


They found a few in Southern Broward a couple of weeks back. Seems they have traveled a bit further than they expected.
Oh hey yas.

Look up Fallon, NV and you'll see the lovely green blob headed our way. Wind kicked up, and it was spitting a bit 20 minutes ago when I ran out to tarp the radial saw.

Feels good and sounds good. Smoked duck for dinner today, a couple of spare khaki campbell drakes out of the orchard flock. And a pint of smokey duck fat in the fridge, I'm using some to cook my eggs in the morning.
Quoting 273. Grothar:



It has been a number of years since we've been there. I miss Miami. It really is a beautiful city.
I've lived here all my life, and I am sure like most cities, it has its good side, and its bad. Was here for Andrew, stayed at my brothers house on SW 161 st. I have posted some video of the morning, and a few days after on FB. I was taping in several locations from SW 152 st to Homestead looking at all the destruction, including my and my families personal property.
Quoting 277. sar2401:

Wild pigs in California have gotten so bad that it's open season all year, or at least was so in 2005 when I left. They completely destroy hillsides rooting around and have caused tremendous erosion problems. They can also be about the most dangerous animals you can run into, especially at night. During breeding season, they are are particularly dangerous when they have their piglets with them. We'd have missing person searches at night and regularly have search teams up in trees trying to escape these beasts.

The closest I came to being really seriously injured was running up on one unexpectedly at about 3 in the morning. She weighed abut 700 pounds and had tusks about 4 feet long that were as sharp as a cutlass. The closest tree was only about 15 feet tall and it wasn't very strong. She was about 6 feet long and was trying to climb the tree to get me. I pepper sprayed her, which usually makes them run off, but it just made her even more mad.

She was able to get one of those tusks in my pant leg and rip my pants and good part of the meat of my leg with it. That was enough. I shot her three times with my .45 but I was shooting in the dark because I'd lost me headlight in the dash up the tree, and it didn't even slow her down. She was coming at me again to finish off my leg, which was gushing blood. I got just enough light from the moon to see her well and finished her off with two head shots. I got out of the tree and found i couldn't stand on my cut up leg. I was able to raise some other team members on the radio and get littered out to the helicopter. I needed three units of blood, 64 stitches, and two surgeries for tendon and muscle repairs. The ER doc said I had maybe 10 minutes to going unconscious from blood loss. If I had fallen out of that tree unconscious, I'm pretty sure she would have finished me off.

They can kill all the wild pigs in California and it would be a good thing as far as I'm concerned.
Here, Here. That was an awful story. I know how to cook them Hawaiian style! The closest one I have was when bad Charly thought that a hog was dead but it wasn,t. He wanted to see how big the tusks were. Mangled his pinky something fierce. They are true omnivores and will eat carrion. They hunt in packs for live game, and if they kill you in the woods they will eat you. I am going to buy a camera this year to show you the absolute destruction these beasts create here. It looks like a farmer with a tractor plowed the woods for miles.
Seems really slow ATL season. When was last time we still E 9/20?
Quoting 258. pureet1948:



This chart frightens me. If it verifies, it means the Houston region will experience its first major hurricane strike since Ike (2008) on Sept. 30, 2014. What is worse, this is from the Euro. The Euro usually overrules all the other models when it comes to forecasting tropical storm/hurricane strike, right?


If there's any remotely credible model beyond day five, it's the Euro. However, this wouldn't be the first false alarm even from that model this year, and I am not expecting it to verify. Unfortunately. I could use a good hurricane chase. My life is pretty boring atm.

I know where it's supposed to come from, but having the seedling alone isn't enough.
Quoting 283. centex:

Seems really slow ATL season. When was last time we still E 9/20?


1997. :3
Quoting pureet1948:


This chart frightens me. If it verifies, it means the Houston region will experience its first major hurricane strike since Ike (2008) on Sept. 30, 2014. What is worse, this is from the Euro. The Euro usually overrules all the other models when it comes to forecasting tropical storm/hurricane strike, right?
Either you're kidding or you you don't understand the Euro and how to read a chart. The low that's shown is weak and it probably frontal rather than tropical. I'd have to look at the whole series to determine that, but any forecast at 240 hours is really not worth the effort, since the accuracy is so bad. The Euro is a good model for track once a tropical cyclone has formed but it's the worst of the the major models when it comes to genesis. I don't pay attention to any forecast more than 7 days out and then only if two of the major models are showing a similar storm.
Quoting 279. MiamiNative:



They found a few in Southern Broward a couple of weeks back. Seems they have traveled a bit further than they expected.
What next? I hear the South Africans eat Giant Barnacles like scallops, but what would that do to dads boat, and the kids that jump off the bridge?
Quoting 261. sar2401:


The Gulf is once again being invaded by a cold front, bringing more dry and cooler air into the Gulf. As we saw with 92L, the Gulf is certainly not primed for a tropical storm. There's a much stronger cold front coming down Tuesday that should put unseasonably cool air into the middle Gulf. The Florida low is now northbound to team up with low coming out of Canada and get the nor'easter season started. There's a really deep Pacific low that's going to repeat this whole sequence next week.


I think there's an unfortunate misconception that cold fronts aren't supposed to invade the Gulf during the summer. It's not uncommon to get at least a little northwesterly flow behind a shortwave/cold front even during July and August. The deep digging fronts with adequate upper-level support and cold air advection are what's unusual, and I don't see much evidence of that.

Also, as we see with severe weather events every year, the airmass can modify quickly in the moist direction.

Still doesn't help the shear, though.
Quoting 285. KoritheMan:



1997. :3
checked that date Erika 9/3=9/19
Quoting 281. MiamiNative:

I've lived here all my life, and I am sure like most cities, it has its good side, and its bad. Was here for Andrew, stayed at my brothers house on SW 161 st. I have posted some video of the morning, and a few days after on FB. I was taping in several locations from SW 152 st to Homestead looking at all the destruction, including my and my families personal property.


We lived in Old Cutler at the time.
Quoting 288. KoritheMan:

I think there's an unfortunate misconception that cold fronts aren't supposed to invade the Gulf during the summer. It's not uncommon to get at least a little northwesterly flow behind a shortwave/cold front even during July and August. The deep digging fronts with adequate upper-level support and cold air advection are what's unusual, and I don't see much evidence of that.

Also, as we see with severe weather events every year, the airmass can modify quickly in the moist direction.

Still doesn't help the shear, though.

Well,I don't know if anyone has bothered to look at the radar tonight , but that stalled out front took all the left over moisture and is trying it's darndest to become a Nor'easter all by itself. Where are all the yankees who would normally be talking aboot this? Packing their bags for Florida. {drum roll, splash}.
Quoting 289. centex:

checked that date Erika 9/3=9/19
two very slow years. 97 looks even more calm during peak. Most of us not used to these type seasons.
Looks like ~3,500 lost power in Southern Michigan from that line of storms earlier.
Live stream for the Dragon launch is up. Launch time is 5:52am GMT.
Quoting centex:
two very slow years. 97 looks even more calm during peak. Most of us not used to these type seasons.


Much less two in a row.
Quoting Skyepony:
Live stream for the Dragon launch is up. Launch time is 5:52am GMT.


RP-1 fueling has been completed. They're running a nice segment on RapidScat.
So I got invited to be a part of an in-progress disaster response/preparedness website with SouthALWX who used to post here from 2008 to 2010. I'm one of the moderators there, and I'll also be working alongside with him providing forecasts if we get any clients (we're trying). He asked me for a professional-looking picture, so I took one yesterday. His response? "I'll take it, but you like you have a baby's arm coming out of your head. It makes me truly LOL."

Unfortunately, I cannot unsee this. I almost want to get another one. Ugh. >_>

Quoting Pallis1:
Here, Here. That was an awful story. I know how to cook them Hawaiian style! The closest one I have was when bad Charly thought that a hog was dead but it wasn,t. He wanted to see how big the tusks were. Mangled his pinky something fierce. They are true omnivores and will eat carrion. They hunt in packs for live game, and if they kill you in the woods they will eat you. I am going to buy a camera this year to show you the absolute destruction these beasts create here. It looks like a farmer with a tractor plowed the woods for miles.
Unless people spend much time in the woods, they really don't see the damage that these creatures cause. I think it was worse in California because we have some amy steep hillsides leading into creeks, and these are the favorite areas for entire herds of pigs to dig up the hillside in search of acorns and grubs. The rains come, the hillside erodes, the creek gets blocked up debris, and then we get downstream flooding. We had a search for a missing hunter that apparently got himself in a similar situation to me except he only had a rife, and he dropped that when he got treed. From the tracks where his remains were found, it looked like at least six large hogs teamed up to knock over 30 foot tree that he was in. They did,in fact, consume most of the remains. Fish and Game has contract professional hunters that tracked down this herd and killed them all. Once they consider a human as a food source, it will just be a matter of time before they killed someone else.

I'd never venture into the woods in California with a handgun after my experience. It was the only thing that save my life. I had to shoot another pig that came over to see what the ruckus was and I could hear other members of the herd in the distance. The hog had also cut through my two inch nylon duty belt before I managed to kill her and my two extra mags were on the part of belt that fell about 20 feet from me. There was no way I could even crawl over to get it.

I felt like Dirty Harry lying there, wondering exactly how many rounds I had fired. My .45 had a 7 round magazine and I always carried one in the chamber, so I had 8 rounds. I was pretty sure I shot the first pig 5 time and the second pig 2 times, so I thought I'd have one round left. The slide hadn't locked back, so I knew had at least that one round. I was pretty goofy at that point from loss of blood, so I was mentally planning how I could kill two pigs with one shot if more showed up. I was really happy to hear some real noisy team members showing up about then. :-)
Alright guys,I'm gone on vacation for. 2 weeks. See ya. Email me at andrbrooks 0@gmail.com if something happens.
Quoting 299. Andrebrooks:

Alright guys,I'm gone on vacation for. 2 weeks. See ya. Email me at andrbrooks 0@gmail.com if something happens.


Or I could just Facebook you, you know. idk why I haven't done that yet. :P
Kori, its a good pic. If you hadn't mentioned the baby arm thing, I would never have noticed, but since you did mention it, it gave me a good laugh. :-)
Quoting 293. Skyepony:

Looks like ~3,500 lost power in Southern Michigan from that line of storms earlier.
Familiar with the area. High taxes coupled with no factory jobs = failing infrastructure. I could not believe how old the telephone poles were in Racine. They were original, as when they had trees there. Gary is what ruined SW Michigan. It is like the bad neighborhood of Chicago, and that is saying something.
1997(ATL) had no August storms(not classified any part of month). Jeopardy, when was last time this happened before 1997?
Quoting 297. KoritheMan:

So I got invited to be a part of an in-progress disaster response/preparedness website with SouthALWX who used to post here from 2008 to 2010. I'm one of the moderators there, and I'll also be working alongside with him providing forecasts if we get any clients (we're trying). He asked me for a professional-looking picture, so I took one yesterday. His response? "I'll take it, but you like you have a baby's arm coming out of your head. It makes me truly LOL."

Unfortunately, I cannot unsee this. I almost want to get another one. Ugh. >_>




LOL. Have you ever heard of getting someone else to hold the camera? Like your brother?
Quoting KoritheMan:
I think there's an unfortunate misconception that cold fronts aren't supposed to invade the Gulf during the summer. It's not uncommon to get at least a little northwesterly flow behind a shortwave/cold front even during July and August. The deep digging fronts with adequate upper-level support and cold air advection are what's unusual, and I don't see much evidence of that.

Also, as we see with severe weather events every year, the airmass can modify quickly in the moist direction.

Still doesn't help the shear, though.
Yeah, we usually get the "not as hot fronts" that wash out over us and don't really alter the Gulf. This front coming down Tuesday is going to have a lot of cold air support and, unfortunately, very little moisture. We're looking at lows Wednesday trough Saturday in the high 50's and north Alabama getting down into the high 40's outside the cities. The high Wednesday is supposed to be in the high 70's! I hope so, but this is not the kind of thing that's good for development in the Gulf. There's a monster low heading into the Pacific NW that's going to repeat this process again next weekend. I think we're starting a fundamental pattern change toward continental autumn early this year.
Quoting 298. sar2401:

Unless people spend much time in the woods, they really don't see the damage that these creatures cause. I think it was worse in California because we have some amy steep hillsides leading into creeks, and these are the favorite areas for entire herds of pigs to dig up the hillside in search of acorns and grubs. The rains come, the hillside erodes, the creek gets blocked up debris, and then we get downstream flooding. We had a search for a missing hunter that apparently got himself in a similar situation to me except he only had a rife, and he dropped that when he got treed. From the tracks where his remains were found, it looked like at least six large hogs teamed up to knock over 30 foot tree that he was in. They did,in fact, consume most of the remains. Fish and Game has contract professional hunters that tracked down this herd and killed them all. Once they consider a human as a food source, it will just be a matter of time before they killed someone else.

I'd never venture into the woods in California with a handgun after my experience. It was the only thing that save my life. I had to shoot another pig that came over to see what the ruckus was and I could hear other members of the herd in the distance. The hog had also cut through my two inch nylon duty belt before I managed to kill her and my two extra mags were on the part of belt that fell about 20 feet from me. There was no way I could even crawl over to get it.

I felt like Dirty Harry lying there, wondering exactly how many rounds I had fired. My .45 had a 7 round magazine and I always carried one in the chamber, so I had 8 rounds. I was pretty sure I shot the first pig 5 time and the second pig 2 times, so I thought I'd have one round left. The slide hadn't locked back, so I knew had at least that one round. I was pretty goofy at that point from loss of blood, so I was mentally planning how I could kill two pigs with one shot if more showed up. I was really happy to hear some real noisy team members showing up about then. :-)


My God Sar, that's terrifying! Big outdoor enthusiast here. Black bears are as bad as it gets in Wisconsin, outside of a small timber rattlesnake population closer to the Mississippi in Wisconsin. Black bears are generally harmless, although they have far ranging personalities and some can be man killers but most are scared kids when they encounter people. Wild pigs knocking over a thirty foot tree??? No thank you. Glad you made it, have a great, "That deer almost killed me" story I'll drop on you some time. Deer can be more dangerous than black bears.
Quoting 304. Astrometeor:



LOL. Have you ever heard of getting someone else to hold the camera? Like your brother?


He did hold it, mang
Quoting Pallis1:
Well,I don't know if anyone has bothered to look at the radar tonight , but that stalled out front took all the left over moisture and is trying it's darndest to become a Nor'easter all by itself. Where are all the yankees who would normally be talking aboot this? Packing their bags for Florida. {drum roll, splash}.
Most of the heavy weather will stay off shore util it gets up in Canada. They are the ones who will feel the nor'easter for sure.
Quoting 303. centex:

1997(ATL) had no August storms(not classified any part of month). Jeopardy, when was last time this happened before 1997?


1961 and 1997 are the only two years it's ever happened.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


My God Sar, that's terrifying! Big outdoor enthusiast here. Black bears are as bad as it gets in Wisconsin, outside of a small timber rattlesnake population closer to the Mississippi in Wisconsin. Black bears are generally harmless, although they have far ranging personalities and some can be man killers but most are scared kids when they encounter people. Wild pigs knocking over a thirty foot tree??? No thank you. Glad you made it, have a great, "That deer almost killed me" story I'll drop on you some time. Deer can be more dangerous than black bears.
I'll admit, that's probably the most scared I've even been in my life. We also have black bears in the woods, and team members would get all excited if they spotted bear tracks. I used to tell them to not worry about the bears but, if you see a freshly torn up hillside and hear some grunting off in the distance, turn around and get out fast.
Quoting KoritheMan:


He did hold it, mang
The picture's not bad but it does have a selfie look Have him get lower with you looking toward the monitor and him in back of the monitor. You want to look like you're tracking that big cat 4 right off LA. :-)
Quoting KoritheMan:


1961 and 1997 are the only two years it's ever happened.


How about 1914? :)
Quoting 298. sar2401:

Unless people spend much time in the woods, they really don't see the damage that these creatures cause. I think it was worse in California because we have some amy steep hillsides leading into creeks, and these are the favorite areas for entire herds of pigs to dig up the hillside in search of acorns and grubs. The rains come, the hillside erodes, the creek gets blocked up debris, and then we get downstream flooding. We had a search for a missing hunter that apparently got himself in a similar situation to me except he only had a rife, and he dropped that when he got treed. From the tracks where his remains were found, it looked like at least six large hogs teamed up to knock over 30 foot tree that he was in. They did,in fact, consume most of the remains. Fish and Game has contract professional hunters that tracked down this herd and killed them all. Once they consider a human as a food source, it will just be a matter of time before they killed someone else.

I'd never venture into the woods in California with a handgun after my experience. It was the only thing that save my life. I had to shoot another pig that came over to see what the ruckus was and I could hear other members of the herd in the distance. The hog had also cut through my two inch nylon duty belt before I managed to kill her and my two extra mags were on the part of belt that fell about 20 feet from me. There was no way I could even crawl over to get it.

I felt like Dirty Harry lying there, wondering exactly how many rounds I had fired. My .45 had a 7 round magazine and I always carried one in the chamber, so I had 8 rounds. I was pretty sure I shot the first pig 5 time and the second pig 2 times, so I thought I'd have one round left. The slide hadn't locked back, so I knew had at least that one round. I was pretty goofy at that point from loss of blood, so I was mentally planning how I could kill two pigs with one shot if more showed up. I was really happy to hear some real noisy team members showing up about then. :-)
So in your opinion, do you echo what most Florida hunters say about hogs, a large caliber handgun is recommended, but only as backup? Personally, I do not feel truly safe without a shotgun or a rifle, especially when taking inexperienced people or kids into the woods. I walk alone without any weapons, but I am really good in the woods and in Florida the trees usually meet up top. I usually creep up on hogs and leave without them knowing I was there anyways.
Quoting 312. DonnieBwkGA:



How about 1914? :)


Oh ****.
Quoting 311. sar2401:

The picture's not bad but it does have a selfie look Have him get lower with you looking toward the monitor and him in back of the monitor. You want to look like you're tracking that big cat 4 right off LA. :-)


Yeah... I really want another one. I'll likely do so tonight.
Quoting 309. KoritheMan:



1961 and 1997 are the only two years it's ever hapspened.
corrected. you win
Quoting 290. Grothar:



We lived in Old Cutler at the time.

I saw the Arctic Explorer at Snoden's in person, as well as a Cadillac wrapped around a tree not too far from there.
Quoting 308. sar2401:

Most of the heavy weather will stay off shore util it gets up in Canada. They are the ones who will feel the nor'easter for sure.
Is that's what it's all aboot?
Fung-wong is trying to form an eye.

Edit - wow, way east of forecast.
Quoting 305. sar2401:

Yeah, we usually get the "not as hot fronts" that wash out over us and don't really alter the Gulf. This front coming down Tuesday is going to have a lot of cold air support and, unfortunately, very little moisture. We're looking at lows Wednesday trough Saturday in the high 50's and north Alabama getting down into the high 40's outside the cities. The high Wednesday is supposed to be in the high 70's! I hope so, but this is not the kind of thing that's good for development in the Gulf. There's a monster low heading into the Pacific NW that's going to repeat this process again next weekend. I think we're starting a fundamental pattern change toward continental autumn early this year.


I don't know. One of the weaknesses of the global models is the affinity to break down persistent continental ridge/trough patterns too quickly; we've seen it this year with the overhead ridging over southern Canada, and we've seen it countless times during the preceding years with the east coast trough.

This year looks more like a ridging year to me. The GFS and ECMWF long-range forecasts show deep ridging remaining near 45N extending southward to at least 35N throughout their respective forecast periods. Ordinarily I don't much care for those super long-range forecasts, but most of the troughs have been overestimated since the 500 mb pattern flipped in the middle of August and went from troughing to ridging out east.

Climatology would favor strong cold fronts, but with nary a front after this next one showing up in the 500 mb height fields, I'm a little skeptical. The models usually forecast east coast troughing in most years because it's climatologically-favored. Since they're sniffing out the antithesis of that, and again because they are usually too fast to retrograde deep continental ridges/troughs (this year it's the ridge), I feel such long-range predictions carry a little more merit than usual.

Not that it'll really mean much in terms of steering with the dearth of tropical cyclone activity this year, but still.
Or 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922 and 1923? :)
322. JRRP
this is not 456 hours... this is 156h

and here is at 252h near 40w
Quoting 321. DonnieBwkGA:

Or 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922 and 1923? :)


that's it man im gonna start using the satellite era as a climatological baseline

okayyyyy :3
Awww shoot Kori I was about to give some more :)
I never heard the death toll for Hurricane Odile. Travis county Texas had sheriff "dive team" member die checking low water crossing in middle of night get washed into lake Austin. This was not caused by tropical waves from Gulf.
326. JRRP
oh... wait...

Odile death toll is up to four now in MX. They just found a British woman who's yacht overturned. Her husband is still missing.
Quoting 294. Skyepony:

Live stream for the Dragon launch is up. Launch time is 5:52am GMT.


about 36 minutes left in countdown ..
Quoting 297. KoritheMan:

So I got invited to be a part of an in-progress disaster response/preparedness website with SouthALWX who used to post here from 2008 to 2010. I'm one of the moderators there, and I'll also be working alongside with him providing forecasts if we get any clients (we're trying). He asked me for a professional-looking picture, so I took one yesterday. His response? "I'll take it, but you like you have a baby's arm coming out of your head. It makes me truly LOL."

Unfortunately, I cannot unsee this. I almost want to get another one. Ugh. >_>




Needs more top hat and monocle. He did say professional, he didn't say what era.
Quoting 327. Skyepony:

Odile death toll is up to four now in MX. They just found a British woman who's yacht overturned. Her husband is still missing.


they tried to ride the storm out on a 28 foot boat in a harbor and it capsized ..
Quoting 286. sar2401:

Either you're kidding or you you don't understand the Euro and how to read a chart. The low that's shown is weak and it probably frontal rather than tropical. I'd have to look at the whole series to determine that, but any forecast at 240 hours is really not worth the effort, since the accuracy is so bad. The Euro is a good model for track once a tropical cyclone has formed but it's the worst of the the major models when it comes to genesis. I don't pay attention to any forecast more than 7 days out and then only if two of the major models are showing a similar storm.


agreed, STS was hyping about how this was a strong TS on the Euro and that widespread flooding could occur from Texas to Florida
Quoting 324. DonnieBwkGA:

Awww shoot Kori I was about to give some more :)


stop making me look like a fool

do u want me to fall back into depression and relapse? it was a long and hard battle to finally get out of that ill have u know

show some decency or ill cry

yes. me cry. i'm not made of stone after all!
Quoting 331. Hurricanes101:



agreed, STS was hyping about how this was a strong TS on the Euro and that widespread flooding could occur from Texas to Florida


To be fair, the modeled presentation is likely at least a low to mid range tropical storm. It's not organized, but it's not as pitiful as some people are believing.

Remember, the global models do not often portray an accurate representation of a tropical cyclone's minimum pressure because of the abrupt decrease in central pressure that occurs in a tropical cyclone's center.
Quoting 323. KoritheMan:



that's it man im gonna start using the satellite era as a climatological baseline

okayyyyy :3
Oooh, I think that February 1934 is what the old farmers in Arkansas were talking about. They described winters that were never equaled to this day. They really did walk miles to school in those days with holes in their shoes. Not to change the subject too much, but I did see evidence of glaciation in the Ouachitas that was not described in the science books of my time. Black Sunday Storm - November 7-13, 1913. One of the most severe Great Lakes storms on record swept winds of 140 km/h over lakes Erie and Ontario, taking down 34 ships and 270 sailors. Days later, the crew of one ship was found lashed to the mast, frozen to death -- only the ship survived. Good bedtime reading.
Quoting 329. Naga5000:



Needs more top hat and monocle. He did say professional, he didn't say what era.


Monocles are sexy. I'd go for a guy that had one.
Quoting 325. centex:

I never heard the death toll for Hurricane Odile. Travis county Texas had sheriff "dive team" member die checking low water crossing in middle of night get washed into lake Austin. This was not caused by tropical waves from Gulf.
it was real sad because so young and talented and so familiar with flash flood issue. Her peers took two days to find her, and parade bringing her to medical examiner.
Quoting 334. Pallis1:

Oooh, I think that February 1934 is what the old farmers in Arkansas were talking about. They described winters that were never equaled to this day. They really did walk miles to school in those days with holes in their shoes. Not to change the subject too much, but I did see evidence of glaciation in the Ouachitas that was not described in the science books of my time. Black Sunday Storm - November 7-13, 1913. One of the most severe Great Lakes storms on record swept winds of 140 km/h over lakes Erie and Ontario, taking down 34 ships and 270 sailors. Days later, the crew of one ship was found lashed to the mast, frozen to death -- only the ship survived. Good bedtime reading.


Scary!
Looking at PPV Euro, Euro system, which peaks at 1000 mb and would be TS strength, starts as a truly tropical system, as it reaches the Louisiana coast it is wrapping rather dry air at mid levels into it from the West, and cooler air from the North, or becoming what resembles a frontal low.

Quoting 338. EdMahmoud:

Looking at PPV Euro, Euro system, which peaks at 1000 mb and would be TS strength, starts as a truly tropical system, as it reaches the Louisiana coast it is wrapping rather dry air at mid levels into it from the West, and cooler air from the North, or becoming what resembles a frontal low.




Doesn't look frontal to me, but the isobaric representation of this likely nonexistent system does suggest some baroclinic forcing. Probably similar to Lee.
Quoting 327. Skyepony:

Odile death toll is up to four now in MX. They just found a British woman who's yacht overturned. Her husband is still missing.
That water is freezing. If the sharks didn't get him, the hypothermia did.
Quoting 328. whitewabit:



about 36 minutes left in countdown ..

The sky is really clear. Got my camera ready.
Quoting 339. KoritheMan:



Doesn't look frontal to me, but the isobaric representation of this likely nonexistent system does suggest some baroclinic forcing. Probably similar to Lee.


250 mb winds at the 240, it is defintely baroclinically forced, or at least sheared.. Rainfall gradient also suggests this.
Quoting 329. Naga5000:



Needs more top hat and monocle. He did say professional, he didn't say what era.
No, early 1900's Kaiser look with all the pendants, ribbons, and dangles. That keeps your monocle, but gives him more authority over that el cheapo keyboard.
Quoting 341. Skyepony:


The sky is really clear. Got my camera ready.


watching it on the web site .. wish I was down there to see it ..

hope you get a few good pictures ..
Quoting centex:
it was real sad because so young and talented and so familiar with flash flood issue. Her peers took two days to find her, and parade bringing her to medical examiner.
My understanding is that it was a 35 year old female deputy attempting to cross to get to an emergency call on the other side of the low water crossing when her patrol car was swept downstream and into the lake. No diving involved, at least not in her death.
1 minute and counting ..
I'm a big anti public not caring about weather. Weather does not change behavior. There daily task is all that matters. The appointment, task or party is all that matters. The younger the more foolish. As they jackrabbit around and break frequently we know what will more likely happen. Even the professional 18 wheels tail gate much more than passenger cars.
Quoting 341. Skyepony:


The sky is really clear. Got my camera ready.


Great video on the web site of the lift off ..
Quoting 153. sar2401:

So far the low is moving pretty quickly NE, which is exactly what the forecast called for. There's only a narrow band of mostly light rain over far south Florida and some scattered storm near Jacksonville. The faster it gets out of here the better for me since it won't interfere with the front coming south, which might have some rain associated with it. So far, the WPC has been way over forecasting rain for these fronts in Alabama.


WPC in general over-forecasts rain with frontal systems, bullseyes of uniform precip never occur with convective precip distribution. I feel like everyone from, the plains east would 80-100 inches of rain by now if the WPC totals were correct, lol.

They tend to actually underdo rainfall a bit with tropical events and airmass convection.
Quoting 346. sar2401:

My understanding is that it was a 35 year old female deputy attempting to cross to get to an emergency call on the other side of the low water crossing when her patrol car was swept downstream and into the lake. No diving involved, at least not in her death.
Hum, not the story I read. She was on dive team and those peers found her. That is what I said. You are saying something different. She radioed in trouble, they found car shortly but not her. Two days later her dive team buddies found her. They dove to find her in lake. None of local reports back your statements. I think you should aphorize.,.
Quoting Pallis1:
So in your opinion, do you echo what most Florida hunters say about hogs, a large caliber handgun is recommended, but only as backup? Personally, I do not feel truly safe without a shotgun or a rifle, especially when taking inexperienced people or kids into the woods. I walk alone without any weapons, but I am really good in the woods and in Florida the trees usually meet up top. I usually creep up on hogs and leave without them knowing I was there anyways.
A good 30.06 or .30-30 is what I used to hunt hogs. A shotgun ruins a lot of the meet and doesn't have enough stopping power to stop a hard charger. I know guys who use 5.56 mm to hunt hogs but those only work since you can put so much lead into them. The trouble is they often run off with a non-fatal shot and then you have to track them for miles before they drop. I think it's kind of cruel. One round from a good hunting rifle should kill a hog if you've got a good shot.

I always carry a backup handgun for two legged and four legged predators. When I was hunting hogs, I carried a two shot .22 WMR derringer and a Glock compact .45. You sometimes need to put a hog out of his misery, and the .22 WMR is a good close round without dragging around another full size handgun. Considering that my .45 already saved my life once from a hog, I'm partial to that as my last stand weapon. I really don't hunt now that I'm not in California, although there's a big population of wild hogs in Alabama. I've kind of gotten over my desire to kill every wild hog in the world now. :-)
Quoting 351. centex:

Hum, not the story I read. She was on dive team and those peers found her. That is what I said. You are saying something different. She radioed in trouble, they found car shortly but not her. Two days later her dive team buddies found her. They dove to find her in lake. None of local reports back your statements. I think you should aphorize.,.
Also the car stayed in creek, I saw pics, it did not go into lake.


Progs holding to a nice jet and trough setup for the West Coast, especially for the time of year. Much different from last year. With the warmer SSTs, should get some decent post frontal showers too.
Quoting centex:
Hum, not the story I read. She was on dive team and those peers found her. That is what I said. You are saying something different. She radioed in trouble, they found car shortly but not her. Two days later her dive team buddies found her. They dove to find her in lake. None of local reports back your statements. I thing you should aphorize.,.
She happened to be on the dive team it had nothing to do with her assignment at the time she and her patrol car were swept away. Maybe you should read the story again.

Link
Quoting centex:
Also the car stayed in creek, I saw pics, it did not go into lake.
Read the story I just just posted.
Quoting 355. sar2401:

She happened to be on the dive team it had nothing to do with her assignment at the time she and her patrol car were swept away. Maybe you should read the story again.

Linkwhere does it dispute what I reported? All I see is disputes what you reported.
Dragon & our RapidScat launch was beautiful..



sar you not reading, please apologize. Did I say she was on a dive rescue? Just how ironic this type professional lose it to flashflood and need to be retrieved by peers.
Quoting 359. centex:

sar you not reading, please apologize. Did I say she was on a dive rescue? Just how ironic this type professional lose it to flashflood and need to be retrieved by peers.
You even said on mission to rescue someone. That is totally false, waiting for your retraction. She was checking crossing like I stated.
Canadian develops a tropical storm from decaying front, and it rains on Alabama. The Canadian will be right some day.

Quoting 360. centex:

You even said on mission to rescue someone. That is totally false, waiting for your retraction. She was checking crossing like I stated.
Thankfully I will not report Sar to the family.
Quoting 346. sar2401:

My understanding is that it was a 35 year old female deputy attempting to cross to get to an emergency call on the other side of the low water crossing when her patrol car was swept downstream and into the lake. No diving involved, at least not in her death.
false report, should be banned.
Quoting 361. EdMahmoud:

Canadian develops a tropical storm from decaying front, and it rains on Alabama. The Canadian will be right some day.




Might be the same system the Euro developed.
And wouldn't you know it, the Euro decides to drop the Gulf system on this run.

Hope nobody was expecting it to verify. I wasn't.
Quoting 365. KoritheMan:

And wouldn't you know it, the Euro decides to drop the Gulf system on this run.

Hope nobody was expecting it to verify. I wasn't.
sw likes the setup. high to north means low to south.
Quoting 352. sar2401:

A good 30.06 or .30-30 is what I used to hunt hogs. A shotgun ruins a lot of the meet and doesn't have enough stopping power to stop a hard charger. I know guys who use 5.56 mm to hunt hogs but those only work since you can put so much lead into them. The trouble is they often run off with a non-fatal shot and then you have to track them for miles before they drop. I think it's kind of cruel. One round from a good hunting rifle should kill a hog if you've got a good shot.

I always carry a backup handgun for two legged and four legged predators. When I was hunting hogs, I carried a two shot .22 WMR derringer and a Glock compact .45. You sometimes need to put a hog out of his misery, and the .22 WMR is a good close round without dragging around another full size handgun. Considering that my .45 already saved my life once from a hog, I'm partial to that as my last stand weapon. I really don't hunt now that I'm not in California, although there's a big population of wild hogs in Alabama. I've kind of gotten over my desire to kill every wild hog in the world now. :-)
Thats good..
ok here it is late sept and it "feels" like the season is over. Anyone else feel this way?
372. SuzK
Quoting 280. nonblanche:

Oh hey yas.

Look up Fallon, NV and you'll see the lovely green blob headed our way. Wind kicked up, and it was spitting a bit 20 minutes ago when I ran out to tarp the radial saw.

Feels good and sounds good. Smoked duck for dinner today, a couple of spare khaki campbell drakes out of the orchard flock. And a pint of smokey duck fat in the fridge, I'm using some to cook my eggs in the morning.


Hey nonblanche, we were out your way a few weeks ago. We arrived in Fallon 8/19 in preparation for the Burning Man festival. My husband and I had our camp all set up and staked down when the heavy rains hit on opening day; we'd gone in 5 days earlier. We could see the evidence of other recent, heavy rains on the playa. It was a most fascinating week! 7 years we've been part of Black Rock City....every year it has been a little wetter and a little cooler on that desert lake bed. Every year, more mosquitos, flies, dragonflies, and bugs in general . Feels a little like slow motion climate change. We love Nevada, and the Lahonten valley! We can't wait to go back in 2015, we intend to arrive even earlier.
373. JRRP
Quoting EdMahmoud:
Canadian develops a tropical storm from decaying front, and it rains on Alabama. The Canadian will be right some day.


canadian will be right some day but GFS no... eh ?
Quoting 297. KoritheMan:

So I got invited to be a part of an in-progress disaster response/preparedness website with SouthALWX who used to post here from 2008 to 2010. I'm one of the moderators there, and I'll also be working alongside with him providing forecasts if we get any clients (we're trying). He asked me for a professional-looking picture, so I took one yesterday. His response? "I'll take it, but you like you have a baby's arm coming out of your head. It makes me truly LOL."

Unfortunately, I cannot unsee this. I almost want to get another one. Ugh. >_>


Ok there are a few things besides the baby arm going on here -imo. The desk, the window and the overall tan tinge to the shot... nothing a little photoshop can't fix!
376. JRRP
Went to a Toby Mac concert last night; presslord will be unhappy to know he called us (NC/SC) the Carolinas. ;)
Easy come, easy go on the Euro Gulf system. Maybe it'll be back at 12Z. Probably not.
Quoting ncstorm:


Hopefully we'll get that rain here in Fort Myers Fl.
We are 14" below normal for the year. About 2" below normal for the month.

Hard to believe with all these Florida rain events. We're just not getting the rain here in my area of S.W. Florida.
Oooh, ooooh,
: P

Quoting 373. JRRP:


canadian will be right some day but GFS no... eh ?


The GFS will be right some day as well, just posting every Hour 384 cane means 99% of the time one is posting something that won't happen.

Both lame in the tropics, although CMC is more lame.
Little area north of the yucatan looks seedish...
A good Sunday (morning) folks!


Yesterday's (Sept 20) lightnings in Europe.

In Europe summer yesterday said "Good bye" (at least for Central Europe where a cold front moved in) with a great lightning show, of course accompagnied with some local flooding and so on, but not at my place in Mainz near Frankfurt. I really enjoyed to watch those lightnings. One of them hit the nearby soccer stadium just after the evening match when the coach of our victorious team explained why "we" had won (slow motion of the lightning at the end of this short video):



-----------------------------------

In Iceland weather had been extremely bad in the last week impeding any view of the fissure eruption near Bardarbunga volcano. Yesterday when it finally has cleared up this great video was recorded, showing that the fissure eruption has meanwhile grown to at least a toddler volcano, lol (compared to the cones of the real big ones). And the lava stream is really so huge!



Unfortunately the volcano is a real stinker, polluting the air in places to which the plume is blown. Here is the latest advisory of the Icelandic Metereogical Institut IMO which is in charge for the volcanoes as well:

21.09.2014, 11:30 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar rate as last few days. The eruption does not seem to be declining. The lava production continues with the same strength. The lava flow is now around the centre of the lava field, which is now around 37 square kilometres.
Scientists in the filed estimate that around 90% of the SO2 gas coming from the eruption originates in the active craters and only 10% from the lava field. Scientists have also become aware of dead birds around the eruptions site.

The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with same rate as before.
Big earthquakes are still detected in the Bardarbunga caldera. Since noon yesterday there have been 18 earthquakes bigger the M3,0. The biggest one was measured M5,0 at 17:11 yesterday afternoon. Smaller earthquakes were detected in north part of the dyke and around the eruption site.

No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained with changing weather.

Air quality:
- SO2 pollution has been reported around Iceland over the weekend but no serious incident has been reported. People are encouraged to familiarise oneself with instructions from health authorities. Further instructions can be found below.
- A prediction from the Icelandic Met Office: Pollution from the eruption is mostly expected north of the eruption today, but can affect a larger area, especially early on before the southerly wind increases. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Officewww.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/
- The Icelandic Met Office has also opened a web page were people can report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skra mengun. ...


Source and more (including possible scenarios) here.

Useful site with a self refreshing compilation of all relevant charts (f.e. the drop/subsidence of the large Bardarbunga caldera) and (tremor) plots here: http://weerstationlangerak.nl/bardarbunga/
Some hours ago a 5.5 earthquake happened.

Hope I didn't bore you too much with this volcanical sideglance, otherwise please forgive me ;-) ...
Quoting 361. EdMahmoud:

Canadian develops a tropical storm from decaying front, and it rains on Alabama. The Canadian will be right some day.


Yeah when it stops taking the drugs.
386. beell
Wow, sar, I'd like to see a wild hog with 4 foot long tusks. Has to be a world record.
387. jpsb
2014 has been a very impressive year for Southern Sea Ice, wow. Look at the spike currently happening. More ice than ever before in the satellite era.
Quoting centex:
Thankfully I will not report Sar to the family.
Like they or I would care. She was on assignment. She was in her patrol car. She and it got swept away and she died. That's the bottom line. We already went through days of this kind of thing with your 92L fixation last week. Apparently you enjoy this kind of thing. I don't. Goodbye.
Another Low is expected to form along the front today very close to the same location as the last one.
Quoting beell:
Wow, sar, I'd like to see a wild hog with 4 foot long tusks. Has to be a world record.
Well, I don't know that they were four feet long, but they sure seemed that big. You would have had to been in the tree with me to get the full effect. I was on my way to the ER when the hog was hauled away. I think some of the guys actually did measure the tusks. It was about 25 years ago. Want me to try to track some of them down and see if they remember?
391. beell
Quoting 390. sar2401:

Well, I don't know that they were four feet long, but they sure seemed that big. You would have had to been in the tree with me to get the full effect. I was on my way to the ER when the hog was hauled away. I think some of the guys actually did measure the tusks. It was a about 25 years ago. Want me to try to track some of them down and see if they remember?



What ever. The tusks are canine teeth and 4 inches would be a good size. 6-8 inches would be very long.
Quoting 387. jpsb:

2014 has been a very impressive year for Southern Sea Ice, wow. Look at the spike currently happening. More ice than ever before in the satellite era.



Still not getting the difference between arctic and antarctic? This line of denial is getting tired.




Arctic Sea ice is decreasing 3 times faster than Antarctic Sea ice is increasing. Combined with the accelerated loss of glacial or land ice, and the reasoning behind the increases in Antarctic Sea ice including freshening of the top layer of ocean, changing wind patterns, increased precipitation, this really isn't as big of a deal as you would like to think.

And before you go down the path of arguing insolation again, please don't.



Quoting 392. Naga5000:



Still not getting the difference between arctic and antarctic? This line of denial is getting tired.




Arctic Sea ice is decreasing 3 times faster than Antarctic Sea ice is increasing. Combined with the accelerated loss of glacial or land ice, and the reasoning behind the increases in Antarctic Sea ice including freshening of the top layer of ocean, changing wind patterns, increased precipitation, this really isn't as big of a deal as you would like to think.

And before you go down the path of arguing insolation again, please don't.






And we are losing ice mass at both poles:
Link
Quoting beell:



What ever. The tusks are canine teeth and 4 inches would be a good size. 6-8 inches would be very long.
How many wild pigs have you killed? I killed three with tusks I really did measure that were over 8". 10 and 1/4" was my best. They looked about the same size as those four footers that were trying to get me that night.
Quoting sar2401:
How many wild pigs have you killed? I killed three with tusks I really did measure that were over 8". 10 and 1/4" was my best. They looked about the same size as those four footers that were trying to get me that night.



Hogzilla's tusks measured nearly 18 inches, which was a new record for North America.

http://www.gunnersden.com/index.htm.shooting-hunt ing-hogs.html
Quoting Naga5000:


Still not getting the difference between arctic and antarctic? This line of denial is getting tired.




Arctic Sea ice is decreasing 3 times faster than Antarctic Sea ice is increasing. Combined with the accelerated loss of glacial or land ice, and the reasoning behind the increases in Antarctic Sea ice including freshening of the top layer of ocean, changing wind patterns, increased precipitation, this really isn't as big of a deal as you would like to think.

And before you go down the path of arguing insolation again, please don't.



I've never understood why the idea that more sea ice in the Antactic is a good thing. If it was in the Arctic, it seems like it would be a good thing. There's no land there, so more sea ice would mean it's colder and more sea water has frozen. The Antarctic is all land with the ice on top of it. The only way sea ice could increase is if it gets warmer and some of the ice breaks off from the ice mass and is carried off to the sea by melt water flowing to the sea. Am I missing something here?
397. beell
Quoting 394. sar2401:

How many wild pigs have you killed? I killed three with tusks I really did measure that were over 8". 10 and 1/4" was my best. They looked about the same size as those four footers that were trying to get me that night.


Killing hogs is a normal adjunct to deer hunting down here in S/SE TX. Taking a hog or two (usually in traps) while preparing a deer lease in the weeks leading up to deer season is normal. Small ones-for the meat. Getting a few more during post-season lease maintenance is also quite common. How many? 3 on the hoof. With dozens witnessed killings by friends. Never saw anything over 6" from jawbone to tip.
It looks like the Northeast is going to get a little wet.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Here's an article from ABC NEWS published this week on the Antarctic sea ice.


Extent of Antarctic sea ice reaches record levels, scientists say


Scientists say the extent of Antarctic sea ice cover is at its highest level since records began.

Satellite imagery reveals an area of about 20 million square kilometres covered by sea ice around the Antarctic continent.

Jan Lieser from the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) said the discovery was made two days ago.

"This is an area covered by sea ice which we've never seen from space before," he said.

"Thirty-five years ago the first satellites went up which were reliably telling us what area, two dimensional area, of sea ice was covered and we've never seen that before, that much area.

"That is roughly double the size of the Antarctic continent and about three times the size of Australia."



Audio: Researchers argue the increase in sea ice does not negate the reality of global warming. (PM)


The formation of sea ice around Antarctica every year is one of the biggest seasonal events on Earth.

The ice is generated in what scientists refer to as "sea ice factories" or polynia - areas of the ocean surface where currents and wind patterns combine to generate sea ice.

As soon as sea ice is produced in these polynias it is actually transported away from that so more sea ice can be produced," Dr Lieser said.

As the area covered in sea ice expands scientists have said the ice on the continent of Antarctica which is not over the ocean continues to deplete.

CEO of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, Tony Worby, said the warming atmosphere is leading to greater sea ice coverage by changing wind patterns.

"The extent of sea ice is driven by the winds around Antarctica, and we believe that they're increasing in strength and part of that is around the depletion of ozone," he said.

He said changes to sea ice levels could have implications for the entire Antarctic ecosystem.

"So the sea ice is a very important habitat for krill in particular and for the reproduction of krill and that forms one of the absolute staples of the diet for many species in the Antarctic."

While the Antarctic ecosystem braces for change, the world's Antarctic research vessels will also have to contend with treacherous conditions in the months ahead.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-09-14/record-cove rage-of-antarctic-sea-ice/5742668
Quite often when you see a strong high pressure anchored over the northern US, there can be strong pressure drops to the South. I think we should watch the Gulf and the southeast coast again this week. Unless you all want to go on a hog hunt instead.

Good Morning. Beautiful cloud-free morning in North Florida with early am temps in the 60's and no hurricanes threatening anyone in the Atlantic. In the big scheme of things, and particularly for the hurricane prone parts of the Caribbean and US, it's been a good several weeks with the exception of the flooding issues from the two recent E-Pac system as they moved inland; hope it stays that way.
Quoting 358. Skyepony:

Dragon & our RapidScat launch was beautiful..






How far away from the launch site was this taken?
Quoting 403. milo617:



How far away from the launch site was this taken?

~23 miles..
Quoting 401. Grothar:

Quite often when you see a strong high pressure anchored over the northern US, there can be strong pressure drops to the South. I think we should watch the Gulf and the southeast coast again this week. Unless you all want to go on a hog hunt instead.




I want to go, but only if I can take my AR-15, a grenade launcher, my KABAR and a flamethrower.


Suns out for the first time here in what seems like days. HOT!


Clear, hot and humid this afternoon after some quick showers this morning. Still "summer" here.