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African Wave 94L Worth Watching; Halong Kills 9 in Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:58 PM GMT on August 10, 2014

A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday was located near 11°N, 21°W on Sunday morning, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC . Satellite loops show the wave has a modest amount of spin and respectable amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 94L is located in a fairly moist environment, with the dry air coming off of Africa located well to the north and west of the disturbance. Wind shear was a high 25 - 30 knots, but the 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range on Monday afternoon, then to the low range on Tuesday afternoon. The wave is headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and should arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday, according to the Sunday morning runs of the GFS and European models. None of the reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation develop 94L, but about 1/3 of the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble show development late this week (the GFS ensemble is a set of 20 runs of the GFS model done at lower resolution with slightly different initial conditions to generate an uncertainty "plume" of model runs.) In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 30%, respectively. Mid-August is the time when the Atlantic hurricane season kicks into high gear, and 94L is definitely a disturbance we need to watch.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image from approximately 9 am EDT August 10, 2014, showing Invest 94L off the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verde Islands. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Halong hits Japan
Slow-moving Tropical Storm Halong finally made landfall in Southern Japan near Aki city, Kōchi Prefecture, at approximately 5 pm EDT Saturday (6 am Sunday in Japan.) Despite weakening to a 70 mph tropical storm before landfall, Halong dumped extremely dangerous heavy rains over Southern Japan, with storm total rainfall amounts in excess of one meter in some locations. A rare "emergency weather warning" (tokubetsu keihō) for the Mie Prefecture was issued on Saturday by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Hakusan in the Mie Prefecture had nearly 17 inches of rain on Saturday, breaking its all-time 24-hour rainfall record set just last year in Typhoon Man-yi. The top winds near landfall, reported at Cape Muroto, were 94 mph, gusting to 117 mph (42.1 m/s gusting to 52.5 m/s). At least nine people were killed and 70 injured in the floods, according to the Japan Times.


Figure 2. Radar image of Tropical Storm Halong making landfall on the coast of Japan at 6:50 pm EDT August 9, 2014 (05:50 JST August 10) . Halong had 70 mph winds at the time. Image credit: Japan Met Agency.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 499. ncstorm:

What happened to the endless troughs exiting off the Conus?
when there is no system to take advantage people wonder why are there so many fish storms. storms form only when there is troughing XD GFS shows nothing really in 16 days up to august 26th :(
So is the tendency to follow the ridge axis...or the contoured nose? I'm guessing that would depend on strength of a system to some extent?
Quoting 499. ncstorm:

What happened to the endless troughs exiting off the Conus?


Gone until end of September hopefully
Quoting FOREX:
So when we use a 14 day GFS to predict doom it is wrong. Shouldn't a 14 day GFS predicting no development be the same, ignored?
Yes. This is what we know now -

- There is an area of disorganized thunderstorms exiting Africa

- This area of storms is embedded in a broad trough of low pressure

- Because there is no organized low, the models are being manually initialized. Humans are entering starting points for the models.

- For each run, the starting point moves, so humans enter a new guess about the right position. Since this is different than the previous position, the resultant model runs can be (and usually are) completely different than previous runs.

Consequently, it's much too early to place any confidence in any model solution, whether it shows Miami getting flattened or no low ever developing.
Quoting 410. bappit:

In dry California, water goes to those who drill the deepest

"And, yes, groundwater pumping is not regulated in California, one of the most regulated states in the nation. It is the only western state without regulated groundwater management."


There are restrictions on how much water can be taken and from which wells. Potable water and irrigation water are treated differently. The details are more complicated, they test for chemicals and only a certain amount of water can be pulled without pulling up too much of the chemicals, so there are limits on wells.
I think Accuweather.com is getting hacked. I see photos of cat's in their monthly forecasts.
Quoting 463. Skyepony:

ASCAT misses 94L




That's 3 times
Okay later guys..early work day tomorrow and I'm really enjoying shark week ..I have to say those are some brave and foolish individuals who choose to go in the water with those great whites to just observe..better them than me..

good night all..
Quoting allancalderini:
Then you better expect Bertha lll and Bertha lV and Bertha V and so on. If conditions don not improve it will be the same thing all over again.
As long as storms stay attached to the ICTZ, that would appear to be the case. If we can get a storm to turn north before about 35W and survive away from the ITCZ, then we might have something.
510. FOREX
Quoting 506. Climate175:

I think Accuweather.com is getting hacked. I see photos of cat's in their monthly forecasts.


How do you think the wave is looking on Rainbow at this hour?
Hmm nevermind, good.
512. beell
Quoting 502. StormJunkie:

So is the tendency to follow the ridge axis...or the contoured nose? I'm guessing that would depend on strength of a system to some extent?


For sure, vertical development trumps surface steering. Some folks like to use the 1016 mb isobar as a general guide. And this probably works well with a system not showing much organization. But it is always a good idea if it's a wave to pay attention to where ever the the strongest vorticity along the axis is located. 850 and 700 mb levels may be a better representation of where the thing is actually rooted.
ITS look like more troughs coming off the east coast for the next four weeks or more..that will make the storm going out to sea..
WKC, are you there?

Quoting 508. ncstorm:

Okay later guys..early work day tomorrow and I'm really enjoying shark week ..I have to say those are some brave and foolish individuals who choose to go in the water with those great whites to just observe..better them than me..

good night all..


IMO, foolish. Russian Roulette. Nearly gobbled by a tiger shark about 20 years ago. Thought I was done. No panic, just the realization that this was really going to happen. Then he just bailed.

They rule their domain. If they think you're food and their primitive brain tells them it's time to eat, well, you are lunch. No emotion or reasoning. It's strictly about survival.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:


Oahu lost the islandwide grid during Iwa in 1982
No, they never lost the island-wide grid on Oahu. They did on Kauai. I can understand that a little better. Iwa was a much more violent hurricane, with recorded winds of 120 mph and winds probably about 135 mph in the mountains, where some of the high voltage pylons were damaged and collapsed. This storm was nowhere near as bad. In the article that Aussie linked, the electric company is blaming trees for bringing down high voltage lines. There should never be trees tall enough or close enough to high voltage lines to ever cause that.
518. FOREX
Quoting 514. CaribBoy:

WCK, are you there?




Those model tracks look way to north.
most of the atlantic and carib is one giant dry dust bowl nothing will stand a chance to develop for a long long time out and maybe not at all this year
Another wave about to exist in the next day or two.

Quoting 518. FOREX:



Those model tracks look way to north.


I agree, I don't want to see it going so far north :-(
Hoping for dry air intrusion and wind shear.
18z GFS ensembles have 94L going into brownsville texas and have a develop tropical storm north of puerto rico
invest 94L better move faster soon before the next tropical wave maybe hit it or come together.
Quoting 514. CaribBoy:

WKC, are you there?




He'll be able to sleep a little better tonight for sure knowing it'll steer clear of the Central Carib.
532. JRRP
this is ridiculous
534. FOREX
Quoting 526. wunderweatherman123:

18z GFS ensembles have 94L going into brownsville texas and have a develop tropical storm north of puerto rico


I liked the central gulf coast landfall better.
So why does the BAM suite seem reversed? The D further south and the S further north isn't what I'd expect to see.
536. FOREX
Quoting 532. JRRP:

this is ridiculous

what???
Quoting 521. Grothar:

Another wave about to exist in the next day or two.


invest 94L need to move faster or this tropical wave may come together with invest 94L DO you thibk its going to happern
Quoting 536. FOREX:

what???


Showing the most likely scenario imo...No development by all except one member.
540. FOREX
Quoting 538. StormJunkie:



Showing the most likely scenario imo...No development by all except one member.


Could be.
Quoting 508. ncstorm:
Okay later guys..early work day tomorrow and I'm really enjoying shark week ..I have to say those are some brave and foolish individuals who choose to go in the water with those great whites to just observe..better them than me..

good night all..


We should throw Sar with a presslord dress in and see how he makes out.
Quoting 540. FOREX:



Could be.


I'm use to some variation between intensity and global models; but to see no globals really latching on and yet most intensity models taking it over 50mph is interesting.
I think this season will be a big one im not listening to all of the doomcasters and please don't give me that its the truth crap
Quoting 484. sar2401:

How did they lose so many high voltage lines to trees? Those are usually at least 50 feet in the air and are built on cleared right of ways. Sounds like a failure in planning and/or maintenance.


It can't be any worse than in NC or the northeast, they often have old lines with little equipment maintenance so outages happen with any remotely strong thunderstorm. We have family in NC and the northeast, and they get outages from what is just a typical thunderstorm here. The northeast lost more power to areas that saw 40-50 mph gusts from Sandy than what major hurricanes did to Florida.
Quoting 543. weatherman994:

I think this season will be a big one im not listening to all of the doomcasters and please don't give me that its the truth crap

Are you referring to those who forecast within the realm of reality and not wishcasting speculation?
Quoting 517. sar2401:

No, they never lost the island-wide grid on Oahu. They did on Kauai. I can understand that a little better. Iwa was a much more violent hurricane, with recorded winds of 120 mph and winds probably about 135 mph in the mountains, where some of the high voltage pylons were damaged and collapsed. This storm was nowhere near as bad. In the article that Aussie linked, the electric company is blaming trees for bringing down high voltage lines. There should never be trees tall enough or close enough to high voltage lines to ever cause that.

From what I have been told if the power company in CT wants to trim a tree away from the lines they have
to call an arborist to do a study on said tree. Same with D.C.
Quoting 543. weatherman994:

I think this season will be a big one im not listening to all of the doomcasters and please don't give me that its the truth crap


Why will it be a big one?
Quoting 517. sar2401:

No, they never lost the island-wide grid on Oahu. They did on Kauai. I can understand that a little better. Iwa was a much more violent hurricane, with recorded winds of 120 mph and winds probably about 135 mph in the mountains, where some of the high voltage pylons were damaged and collapsed. This storm was nowhere near as bad. In the article that Aussie linked, the electric company is blaming trees for bringing down high voltage lines. There should never be trees tall enough or close enough to high voltage lines to ever cause that.


It could be erosion from torrential rains, heavy rain can remove a lot of Earth in a short time, even here in the flatlands of Florida, we get enough fast flowing water to displace dirt and cause erosion in my back yard after a common heavy downpour here.

If not that, there is just know excuse. Wind gusts in the lowlands were 60-70 mph max and 70 to 80 max in the highlands for the most part in the worst areas. It should take winds substantially over 100 mph to bring down transmission lines.

My number one loss of power here is from lightning. We only lost power briefly in the hours of sustained 40-50 with gusts of 60-70 mph in hurricane Jeanne and Frances. They even peaked at 75-80 mph here. That type of wind practically destroys entire grids in the northeast.
Quoting 545. EpsilonWeather:


Are you referring to those who forecast within the realm of reality and not wishcasting speculation?


Pretty sure that should have read "downcasters"; not "doomcasters"...

Me, I'm just a trashcaster.



maybe coming together invest 94L AND THE TROPICAL wave back of invest 94L
Quoting 548. Jedkins01:


It could be erosion from torrential rains, heavy rain can remove a lot of Earth in a short time, even here in the flatlands of Florida, we get enough fast flowing water to displace dirt and cause erosion in my back yard after a common heavy downpour here.


Hi Jed, you are going to like tomorrow's forecast as the latest HRRR model is showing rounds of heavy rain coming ashore from Tampa north tomorrow. Infact the Euro has this pattern in place for the next 10 days with amounts of 6" to 10" across the nature Coast.

545. EpsilonWeather Everytime an invest weakens slighty you guys write the season off thats how people end upbeing caught oofffff gaurd
Quoting 517. sar2401:

No, they never lost the island-wide grid on Oahu. They did on Kauai. I can understand that a little better. Iwa was a much more violent hurricane, with recorded winds of 120 mph and winds probably about 135 mph in the mountains, where some of the high voltage pylons were damaged and collapsed. This storm was nowhere near as bad. In the article that Aussie linked, the electric company is blaming trees for bringing down high voltage lines. There should never be trees tall enough or close enough to high voltage lines to ever cause that.


Trust me, the electric was down island-wide. No lights, finally a radio station on with a generator to let us know what was happening. For a week there were rolling blackouts, which of course means no elevators for the highrises. No the wind was not all that bad, but it was bad enough to cause many problems. BTW most of us found out it was coming less than 12 hours before arrival, and I worked for the Army. Sometimes you find out the weakness of the system the hard way.
547. VAbeachhurricanes look at the 2012 season it was supposed to be nothing and look what happened
Quoting 537. hurricanes2018:

invest 94L need to move faster or this tropical wave may come together with invest 94L DO you thibk its going to happern


Too far apart.
Quoting 541. StormTrackerScott:



We should throw Sar with a presslord dress in and see how he makes out.


Please Scott, sar witnessed the Hindenburg disaster. Give him some slack :)
Quoting 552. weatherman994:

545. EpsilonWeather Everytime an invest weakens slighty you guys write the season off thats how people end upbeing caught oofffff gaurd

Nobody wrote the season off. The honest fact is conditions are just not that favorable for these waves no matter how potent they are when they roll off of Africa, and unless that changes soon, I don't see this season producing any more than 9-10 cyclones total. Additionally, whenever an actual storm threatens land, it was likely already being monitored by the population days in advance. I don't think anybody is ever truly caught off guard, they just make poor judgements when it matters most.
Quoting 552. weatherman994:

545. EpsilonWeather Everytime an invest weakens slighty you guys write the season off thats how people end upbeing caught oofffff gaurd


I can't be caught off guard. In order for a storm to make it to me, first it has to ravage the Gulf. And if anything passes near the Gulf, the 500 Floridian bloggers and Kori will give me plenty of notification in their rampant blogging.

I think I'm good. :)
Quoting 552. weatherman994:

545. EpsilonWeather Everytime an invest weakens slighty you guys write the season off thats how people end upbeing caught oofffff gaurd


How can people on an entertainment weather blog end upbeing oofffff guard?
Quoting 553. SunnyDaysFla:



Trust me, the electric was down island-wide. No lights, finally a radio station on with a generator to let us know what was happening. For a week there were rolling blackouts, which of course means no elevators for the highrises. No the wind was not all that bad, but it was bad enough to cause many problems. BTW most of us found out it was coming less than 12 hours before arrival, and I worked for the Army. Sometimes you find out the weakness of the system the hard way.

A buddy of mine told me they plugged a nuclear sub up to the grid.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Please Scott, sar witnessed the Hindenburg disaster. Give him some slack :)
How did my name come up in all this?


something to watch on the east coast % went up a littie
563. 882MB
Hey everyone, just wanted to say that I'm really not buying the 8PM models, showing 94L going north of the islands, first because the system is still not real organized, and also being that it is still a weak system. The Azores high will move this WEST, probably WNW, after it passes 45 or 50 WEST. Probably a big rain maker for the islands and Puerto Rico, but a lot can change, so let's just keep watching to see how it develops down the road. What I can really say is that after this system, things will get interesting in the MDR, with two strong tropical waves moving offshore of Africa this week and especially the one that's by east central Africa by Nigeria, that comes out this upcoming weekend certainly has a spin to it, and the HWRF and GFS have latched on to this. So for now its a waiting game guys ;)
Quoting 550. hurricanes2018:




maybe coming together invest 94L AND THE TROPICAL wave back of invest 94L
the tropical wave right next to invest 94L doom!
Quoting 517. sar2401:

No, they never lost the island-wide grid on Oahu. They did on Kauai. I can understand that a little better. Iwa was a much more violent hurricane, with recorded winds of 120 mph and winds probably about 135 mph in the mountains, where some of the high voltage pylons were damaged and collapsed. This storm was nowhere near as bad. In the article that Aussie linked, the electric company is blaming trees for bringing down high voltage lines. There should never be trees tall enough or close enough to high voltage lines to ever cause that.
you don't mean Iwa, right?
Quoting 531. StormJunkie:



He'll be able to sleep a little better tonight for sure knowing it'll steer clear of the Central Carib.


lol!
Quoting 561. sar2401:

How did my name come up in all this?


some reason Scott decided to put a dress on you and throw you in the water with sharks. There is a comment about it somewhere
According to the latest discussion, Hurricane Julio has actually intensified. SSTs are anomalously warm in the North Pacific this year, a sort of "northern" El Nino. The models now have Julio moving more to the right than earlier. If it can phase with the westerlies (nothing indicates this yet), California might catch a much-needed early season deluge.
569. JLPR2
Come on 94L I dare you, visit me and eliminate the remaining drought areas. :)






it the low in all them t.storms or the low north of them t.storms its hard to tell
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:


Trust me, the electric was down island-wide. No lights, finally a radio station on with a generator to let us know what was happening. For a week there were rolling blackouts, which of course means no elevators for the highrises. No the wind was not all that bad, but it was bad enough to cause many problems. BTW most of us found out it was coming less than 12 hours before arrival, and I worked for the Army. Sometimes you find out the weakness of the system the hard way.
It was, but not because the grid failed due to the storm. Oahu lost 95% of its power due to a switching station on Kauai that had a link to Oahu. When the power was lost on Kauai due to wind destroying several vital high voltage junction lines, it took most of Oahu with it. Hawaii Electric Company had a backup switching station on Kauai to supply power to the Cooperative on the island when they had to go offline for maintenance. Through some incredibly bad planning, the overvoltage caused by the Cooperative suddenly losing power during the storm backfed from the Kauai station to the main switchboards at the Kahe Point Power Plant and damaged them to the point that HECO had to shut down most of the island to prevent catastrophic damage to the plant's control systems. I was working with PG&E at the time and was involved in rounding up parts and getting them to Oahu to replace the damaged parts.

Yeah, the NHC and NWS didn't win any prizes for their early warning of Iwa. I think that was a big wakeup call about not waiting until you know for sure what a storm is going to do before starting to put out warnings. Of course, it was also 30 years ago, and things were a lot more primitive, both with weather prediction and electrical systems.
Good Evening. I did a blog entry in case anyone was interested in reading it.

Invest 94L and the Conditions and Steering Pattern in the Atlantic Basin
Quoting 565. Barefootontherocks:

you don't mean Iwa, right?


Yes Iwa (1982) has sort of been forgotten after the damage from Iniki 10 years later.
Gone are the days the Atlantic produced storms like this..

What in the hell happened?.
Quoting tramp96:

A buddy of mine told me they plugged a nuclear sub up to the grid.
Urban legend. It was requested for Kauai but the power was restored using conventional emergency generators before the sub could get hooked up. There's an article about it here.


Lightning and thunder in the distance but not a drop of rain on the SW part of Grand Cayman


Spoke too soon some rain coming now as I type this :))
Quoting 574. washingtonian115:

Gone are the days the Atlantic produced storms like this..What in the hell happened.


Weather happened. One bad year (2013) does not make a new trend, Washi.
Here it comes:


Quoting 574. washingtonian115:

Gone are the days the Atlantic produced storms like this..

What in the hell happened?.
I came along and gave it bad luck. :P

Gone are the days the Atlantic produced storms like this..

What in the hell happened.

Got a gut feeling we might see one this year we wished we never seen!
Quoting 578. Astrometeor:



Weather happened. One bad year (2013) does not make a new trend, Washi.
What I'm trying to say Astro is that after 2010 it's like storms have had a major problem with dry air in the MDR.2011,2012 and...2013 storms have been chocking left and right and have had to find a moist atmosphere else where.
Quoting 576. washingtonian115:


the atlantic decided that stable air and SAL would be a good diet
Quoting Astrometeor:


I can't be caught off guard. In order for a storm to make it to me, first it has to ravage the Gulf. And if anything passes near the Gulf, the 500 Floridian bloggers and Kori will give me plenty of notification in their rampant blogging.

I think I'm good. :)


Lol. I'm just trying not to get caught off guard AGAIN! Humberto was a long night. But in my defense, I didn't follow the tropics back then. Even though we had just been through Rita. But the next year I knew Edouard was coming. Found this site the next day. Got Ike a month later. Had an evac order for Gustav in between. Trial by fire. Hopefully none of us will be caught off guard or unprepared again. And I bug the people who don't follow the blog when I see trouble coming. I've learned a lot about the tropics but am starting to learn more bout severe too. Love this place. :)
Quoting 582. washingtonian115:

What I'm trying to say Astro is that after 2010 it's like storms have had a major problem with dry air in the MDR.2011,2012 and...2013 storms have been chocking left and right and have had to find a moist atmosphere else where.

What happened? El Nino refused to develop in 2012.
Quoting 577. stormpetrol:



Lightning and thunder in the distance but not a drop of rain on the SW part of Grand Cayman
v

Spoke too soon some rain coming now as I type this :))
very heavy rain and lightning in East End.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:


Yes Iwa (1982) has sort of been forgotten after the damage from Iniki 10 years later.
I suspect the Iwa is forgotten because it was a "small" hurricane compared to Iniki. The amount of damage on Kauai in terms of damaged and destroyed structures was worse with Iwa than Iniki. Once again, the CPHC only gave residents less than 24 hours notice.
Does the 94L Floater seem off to you or is it just me?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
very heavy rain and lightning in East End.
You lucky dogs. :-)
Quoting 578. Astrometeor:



Weather happened. One bad year (2013) does not make a new trend, Washi.

We haven't seen a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic since October 2, 2011.
Quoting Jedkins01:


It can't be any worse than in NC or the northeast, they often have old lines with little equipment maintenance so outages happen with any remotely strong thunderstorm. We have family in NC and the northeast, and they get outages from what is just a typical thunderstorm here. The northeast lost more power to areas that saw 40-50 mph gusts from Sandy than what major hurricanes did to Florida.


Amen to this, our power grid is in need of SERIOUS upgrading. Neighborhoods in suburban areas of Pennsylvania and New Jersey lose power on an almost unacceptable regular basis. A garden variety thunderstorm can put some of them in the dark. Many rural residents have invested in generators because of outage frequency. Though it's worth noting in the case of Sandy that many areas saw several hours of these gusts, not that it's an excuse.

Slovenia has a better power grid than we do.
Quoting Chicklit:
Does the 94L Floater seem off to you or is it just me?
I noticed that too. It's like they're not sure what they should call the "center" in terms of where to focus.
Here we go again with 6"-10" inches if rain forecasted. That puts us around 250" for the year. 5x our normal yearly rainfall and its only August 10th. Can't wait for el nino to take full effect and brings us another 30"-40" inches this winter.
Quoting 590. TropicalAnalystwx13:


We haven't seen a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic since October 2, 2011.

Has it really been that long?

Huh, go figure.
595. FOREX
Quoting 588. Chicklit:

Does the 94L Floater seem off to you or is it just me?



thought it was just me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We haven't seen a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic since October 2, 2011.


We haven't seen a Category 5 since September 4, 2007.
Quoting sar2401:
I noticed that too. It's like they're not sure what they should call the "center" in terms of where to focus.


yeah I couldn't make heads nor tails of it yet.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


some reason Scott decided to put a dress on you and throw you in the water with sharks. There is a comment about it somewhere
Ah, I see. Must have been nipping at the joy juice again.
Quoting 582. washingtonian115:

What I'm trying to say Astro is that after 2010 it's like storms have had a major problem with dry air in the MDR.2011,2012 and...2013 storms have been chocking left and right and have had to find a moist atmosphere else where.


I know what you meant Washi. Still, give it time. I'm a tornado lover, and I can say similar things about the 2012, 2013, 2014 (so far) tornado seasons.
Quoting luvtogolf:
Here we go again with 6"-10" inches if rain forecasted. That puts us around 250" for the year. 5x our normal yearly rainfall and its only August 10th. Can't wait for el nino to take full effect and brings us another 30"-40" inches this winter.
I have an old, leaky boat I'll sell you cheap. :-)
Quoting 522. CaribBoy:



I agree, I don't want to see it going so far north :-(
For Cape Verde Twave they usually show them moving north too fast and they end up shifting west as time moves up.
Quoting 590. TropicalAnalystwx13:


We haven't seen a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic since October 2, 2011.


Key word was trend, Cody. 2011 was three years ago. That's not that long of a time-span.
604. JRRP
Quoting wxgeek723:


We haven't seen a Category 5 since September 4, 2007.

GW
Quoting 596. wxgeek723:



We haven't seen a Category 5 since September 4, 2007.
We haven't seen a major hurricane make landfall in the CONUS since October 24, 2005.
Quoting wxgeek723:


We haven't seen a Category 5 since September 4, 2007.

And we haven't seen a category five hit the mainland US since August 24, 1992.
Quoting 588. Chicklit:

Does the 94L Floater seem off to you or is it just me?



Eumets got it.......gettin' "blowdried" by SAL...
Quoting 592. sar2401:

I noticed that too. It's like they're not sure what they should call the "center" in terms of where to focus.
Main convection definitely further south latitude than forecasted. ....it's going to be a Caribbean Cruiser.
Quoting 605. GTstormChaserCaleb:

We haven't seen a major hurricane make landfall in the CONUS since October 24, 2005.


We can hope we never will again..But it will happen.
Quoting 602. Astrometeor:



Key word was trend, Cody. 2011 was three years ago. That's not that long of a time-span.
For some reason I think it is safe to say we have never seen something like this in our lifetime. I mean even in the early 90s and late 80s we had Hurricane Gilbert and Andrew both making landfall as Category 5 hurricanes.
Looking East from Spotts Grand Cayman tonight
Quoting 586. stormwatcherCI:

very heavy rain and lightning in East End.
Quoting 610. GTstormChaserCaleb:

For some reason I think it is safe to season we have never seen something like this in our lifetime. I mean even in the early 90s and late 80s we had Hurricane Gilbert and Andrew both making landfall as Category 5 hurricanes.
,
Your lifetime is less than 20 years right? Be patient.

In your case
Quoting 606. sar2401:


And we haven't seen a category five hit the mainland US since August 24, 1992.


Anything else?
Quoting 596. wxgeek723:



We haven't seen a Category 5 since September 4, 2007.
we haven't had a season with normal instability since...... uh 2010. since then the downfall of mediocrity has ensued. the stable air and lack of instability is downright putrid and awful and i wish the trend would reverse
Quoting 610. GTstormChaserCaleb:

For some reason I think it is safe to say we have never seen something like this in our lifetime. I mean even in the early 90s and late 80s we had Hurricane Gilbert and Andrew both making landfall as Category 5 hurricanes.


It's been 2 years yall need to relax there is a reason the average is only 11 storms
Quoting 573. SunnyDaysFla:



Yes Iwa (1982) has sort of been forgotten after the damage from Iniki 10 years later.
Just trying to keep the facts straight. Iwa as a cat 1 did not make landfall and may have recorded gusts of 120 in higher terrain on Kauai. The 135 winds stated by the other blogger did not mention gusts, nor is this wind value reported for Iwa, and that is what made me wonder which 'cane he was talking about. Iniki or Iwa.
Possibly 135 for Iwa? well, where is the evidence of that? Also the NWS mentions the high rainfall totals in its Iniki report, but 10-15" as this same blogger reported from Iniki in Hana, Maui is not mentioned in their report. Just trying to keep the facts straight.
(Corrected misspelled word)
Quoting 612. SunnyDaysFla:

,
Your lifetime is less than 20 years right? Be patient.

In your case
I wish I was still in my teens, the point I'm trying to make is the gap the US has gone without a major hurricane strike, which is a good thing I agree with you, and now we seem to have hit a lull in activity. You would have to go back to a period between 1900-1920 to see the lack of majors and activity. After the 1900 Galveston Hurricane it took 9 years until the US was hit by a major hurricane. And in that year 1909 Texas, Louisiana, and Florida were hit by a major hurricane. This all goes back to what I say some time ago. That this is a climate thing that seems to occur once every 100 years.
Quoting 617. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I wish I was still in my teens, the point I'm trying to make is the gap the US has gone without a major hurricane strike, which is a good thing I agree with you, and now we seem to have hit a lull in activity. You would have to go back to a period between 1900-1920 to see the lack of majors and activity. After the 1900 Galveston Hurricane it took 9 years until the US was hit by a major hurricane. And in that year 1909 Texas, Louisiana, and Florida were hit by a major hurricane. This all goes back to what I say some time ago. That this is a climate thing that seems to occur once every 100 years.


What lull in activity exactly?
Quoting 616. Barefootontherocks:


Just trying to keep the facts straight. Iwa as a cat 1 did not make landfall and may have recorded gusts of 120 in higher terrain on Kauai. The 135 winds stated by the other blogger did not mention gusts, nor is this wind vIe reported for Iwa, and that is what made me wonder which 'cane he was talking about. Iniki or Iwa.
Possibly 135 for Iwa? well, where is the evidence of that? Also the NWS mentions the high rainfall totals in its Iniki report, but 10-15" as this same blogger reported from Iniki in Hana, Maui is not mentioned in their report. Just trying to keep the facts straight.


Sar was probably citing Iniki which was much stronger and a direct hit.
I think that is why it's called the multi-decadel oscillation. You have quiet periods of 10-20 years and active periods of 10-20 years. I wouldn't be surprised we enter a quiet period sooner than later.
Quoting 587. sar2401:

I suspect the Iwa is forgotten because it was a "small" hurricane compared to Iniki. The amount of damage on Kauai in terms of damaged and destroyed structures was worse with Iwa than Iniki. Once again, the CPHC only gave residents less than 24 hours notice.
Please state a source for the statement I bolded. I'd like to know where the statement is coming from.
Quoting 610. GTstormChaserCaleb:

For some reason I think it is safe to say we have never seen something like this in our lifetime. I mean even in the early 90s and late 80s we had Hurricane Gilbert and Andrew both making landfall as Category 5 hurricanes.

A break is good. After watching Katrina, Ike and even Sandy I have no problems with no majors or hurricanes causing destruction. You'll get your storms soon enough it might not come though when you expect it to happen but it will happen.
Quoting 619. SunnyDaysFla:


Sar was probably citing Iniki which was much stronger and a direct hit.

Guesswork but thanks for trying.
Quoting 622. sporteguy03:


A break is good. After watching Katrina, Ike and even Sandy I have no problems with no majors or hurricanes causing destruction. You'll get your storms soon enough it might not come though when you expect it to happen but it will happen.


Doubt you'll see this many records broken again in one season any time soon though. '03 through '05; the Atl was a mad house.

625. beell
HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 PM HST SUN AUG 10 2014

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE EYE OF JULIO...TO THE POINT THAT IT HAS BECOME INDISCERNIBLE. HOWEVER...2018Z/2331Z AMSU-B PASSES AND A 2229Z GCOM PASS CONFIRMED WHAT AIR FORCE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LAST REPORTED BEFORE DEPARTING JULIO THIS MORNING...THAT THE EYE CONTINUES TO PERSIST...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS TO EXPLAIN THE DETERIORATION OF THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES RANGED FROM 4.0/65KT TO 4.5/77KT. WITH THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF JULIO SLIGHTLY DEGRADED FROM EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE IS LOWERED TO 75 KT.

WITH JULIO NO LONGER DEEMED TO BE A THREAT TO THE STATE OF HAWAII...RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS INTO THE CYCLONE HAVE ENDED. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CPHC IS GRATEFUL FOR THE ABUNDANCE OF TIMELY IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY THE AIRCRAFT IN BOTH JULIO AND ISELLE. IN ADDITION...AFTER PROVIDING DATA ON JULIO THIS MORNING... THE AIRCRAFT COLLABORATED WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD IN A SEARCH AND RESCUE MISSION INVOLVING A DISTRESSED SAILING VESSEL CAUGHT IN JULIO/S CIRCULATION.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/10 KT. JULIO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST AND A LOW ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF JULIO IS DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WITH A RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE AT THAT TIME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PLACE JULIO IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING WINDS. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN RESPONSE...WITH A JOG TOWARD WEST EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 60. ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING JULIO FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAYS 3 AND 4. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE JULIO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 5...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED THAT DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS EARLIER.

ALTHOUGH THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS JULIO GAINING LATITUDE...SSTS ALONG THE TRACK ACTUALLY INCREASE UNTIL DAY 3...DUE TO ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF HAWAII. DESPITE THIS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS. SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY DIMINISH IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AT THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS.
Euro still not interested in 94L.......but it didn't like Bertha either...
Quoting 622. sporteguy03:


A break is good. After watching Katrina, Ike and even Sandy I have no problems with no majors or hurricanes causing destruction. You'll get your storms soon enough it might not come though when you expect it to happen but it will happen.
Oh trust me I enjoy the break we are having, there are still some people who have not fully recovered from the '04-'05 season, both financially and emotionally. Things are starting to get better in that businesses are returning, people are finding work, and tourism industry along the coastline is picking up. I would never want a major hurricane to come and devastate life and property. I'm just saying if things stay the way they are in the Atlantic Basin with the stable airmass in the MDR and we end up with a season like last season. That would give us back-to-back quiet seasons. In the active era we are in we haven't seen back-to-back quiet seasons. Again, this is a good thing at least there is a less likliehood of lives and property being in danger. I still wouldn't mind a major hurricane of two out in the open Atlantic that recurves away from land, just like Washi has been stating.
Quoting 584. AtHomeInTX:



Lol. I'm just trying not to get caught off guard AGAIN! Humberto was a long night. But in my defense, I didn't follow the tropics back then. Even though we had just been through Rita. But the next year I knew Edouard was coming. Found this site the next day. Got Ike a month later. Had an evac order for Gustav in between. Trial by fire. Hopefully none of us will be caught off guard or unprepared again. And I bug the people who don't follow the blog when I see trouble coming. I've learned a lot about the tropics but am starting to learn more bout severe too. Love this place. :)
Imo the worst storms are the ones like Humberto that strength really fast. Charley was another example. Those storms are deadlier imo because people are expecting something and they receive a storm with more strength.
Quoting 605. GTstormChaserCaleb:

We haven't seen a major hurricane make landfall in the CONUS since October 24, 2005.
I win :P I haven't been hit by a hurricane since October 29 1998.
From Friday night here in Orlando



Quoting 615. VAbeachhurricanes:



It's been 2 years yall need to relax there is a reason the average is only 11 storms
What's the average for hurricanes and major hurricanes? Because I'm pretty sure last year was below the average in those categories.
Quoting 625. beell:

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 PM HST SUN AUG 10 2014

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE EYE OF JULIO...TO THE POINT THAT IT HAS BECOME INDISCERNIBLE. HOWEVER...2018Z/2331Z AMSU-B PASSES AND A 2229Z GCOM PASS CONFIRMED WHAT AIR FORCE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LAST REPORTED BEFORE DEPARTING JULIO THIS MORNING...THAT THE EYE CONTINUES TO PERSIST...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS TO EXPLAIN THE DETERIORATION OF THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES RANGED FROM 4.0/65KT TO 4.5/77KT. WITH THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF JULIO SLIGHTLY DEGRADED FROM EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE IS LOWERED TO 75 KT.

WITH JULIO NO LONGER DEEMED TO BE A THREAT TO THE STATE OF HAWAII...RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS INTO THE CYCLONE HAVE ENDED. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CPHC IS GRATEFUL FOR THE ABUNDANCE OF TIMELY IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY THE AIRCRAFT IN BOTH JULIO AND ISELLE. IN ADDITION...AFTER PROVIDING DATA ON JULIO THIS MORNING... THE AIRCRAFT COLLABORATED WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD IN A SEARCH AND RESCUE MISSION INVOLVING A DISTRESSED SAILING VESSEL CAUGHT IN JULIO/S CIRCULATION.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/10 KT. JULIO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST AND A LOW ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF JULIO IS DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WITH A RIDGE BRIEFLY REBUILDING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE AT THAT TIME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PLACE JULIO IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING WINDS. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN RESPONSE...WITH A JOG TOWARD WEST EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 60. ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING JULIO FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAYS 3 AND 4. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE JULIO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 5...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED THAT DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS EARLIER.

ALTHOUGH THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS JULIO GAINING LATITUDE...SSTS ALONG THE TRACK ACTUALLY INCREASE UNTIL DAY 3...DUE TO ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF HAWAII. DESPITE THIS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS. SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY DIMINISH IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AT THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS.
The part about HH aiding a distressed sailing vessel caught in Julio's circulation, that's kind of neat. I hope everyone in the boat was okay.
Quoting 630. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What's the average for hurricanes and major hurricanes? Because I'm pretty sure last year was below the average in those categories.

The seasonal average is 12-6-3. Last year ended with 14-2-0.
Quoting 626. Kowaliga:

Euro still not interested in 94L.......but it didn't like Bertha either...

Seems to want to absorb it into that cutoff low over Georgia. Will be interesting to see. I have always wondered which model handles the pressure patterns the best: GFS or Euro?
Quoting 611. Saltydogbwi1:

Looking East from Spotts Grand Cayman tonight



xx/xx/xx
In coming!

636. beell
Quoting 588. Chicklit:

Does the 94L Floater seem off to you or is it just me?



Maybe not. Perhaps a hint or two of an elongated circulation.






(loop stolen from Kowaliga)





Quoting 630. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What's the average for hurricanes and major hurricanes? Because I'm pretty sure last year was below the average in those categories.


Yeah, one year a trend does not make.
Quoting 628. allancalderini:

Imo the worst storms are the ones like Humberto that strength really fast. Charley was another example. Those storms are deadlier imo because people are expecting something and they receive a storm with more strength. I win :P I haven't been hit by a hurricane since October 29 1998.
You sure, Allan? I live in the Tampa Bay area. Can you gander a guess as to the last time we were hit? Mind you we have had our fair share of Tropical Storms.
The 000 are out





Quoting 633. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Seems to want to absorb it into that cutoff low over Georgia. Will be interesting to see. I have always wondered which model handles the pressure patterns the best: GFS or Euro?


Euro is dead set on this east coast trough staying put for the next 10 days. Didn't mean to burst your bubble yesterday but it is what it is. This has been the pattern all year and until this warm pool across the Gulf of Alaska weakens then expect things to stay the same.

00z 6hr for junk invest...

Quoting 630. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What's the average for hurricanes and major hurricanes? Because I'm pretty sure last year was below the average in those categories.


6 and 2-3 for majors. (1981-2010)

But then again, that's the average. You have to have a season below those numbers in order to have that average.
Quoting 633. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Seems to want to absorb it into that cutoff low over Georgia. Will be interesting to see. I have always wondered which model handles the pressure patterns the best: GFS or Euro?


Yeah, and I think the Euro is kinda wacko dive bombing a cutoff low into the SEUS when the GFS has a solid ridge @240h...
Quoting 641. StormJunkie:
00z 6hr for junk invest...



I'm interested in 94L. I think this system may have a chance to become something once in the Caribbean in 7 days.

Quoting 642. Astrometeor:



6 and 2-3 for majors. (1981-2010)

But then again, that's the average. You have to have a season below those numbers in order to have that average.


Last year was the first year since 1997 with below average major hurricanes. People continue to act like 2011-2012 were bad years when they were tied for the third most active seasons of ALL TIME.
Quoting 643. Kowaliga:


Yeah, and I think the Euro is kinda wacko dive bombing a cutoff low into the SEUS when the GFS has a solid ridge @240h...


This is how its been since January what makes you think the pattern will change?


yep nasty night here!
Quoting 640. StormTrackerScott:



Euro is dead set on this east coast trough staying put for the next 10 days. Didn't mean to burst your bubble yesterday but it is what it is. This has been the pattern all year and until this warm pool across the Gulf of Alaska weakens then expect things to stay the same.


Quoting 637. VAbeachhurricanes:



Yeah, one year a trend does not make.
We'll see about that both of you. I'll say it now I don't see 94L recurving OTS and as far as the whole trend thing goes, we'll see how the rest of this season plays out.
Quoting 644. StormTrackerScott:



I'm interested in 94L. I think this system may have a chance to become something once in the Caribbean in 7 days.




Confidence in it even being in the Carib is low at this point. This isn't Bertha in the sense that the models have been all over the place. Not to mention that none of the globals are very interested in it...And usually they would at least be biting if it had much of a chance.

What I've gathered so far is that it will have a chance in a couple days, for a couple days, and then will have to take a couple days of rough conditions in order to emerge in the W Carib and maybe have a couple more half way decent days. If it even ends up in the Carib. If it separates from the ITCZ. A whole lot of "Ifs" have to come together for this to amount to much. And for the record, just because it is a trash wave doesn't mean I'm not interested.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Doubt you'll see this many records broken again in one season any time soon though. '03 through '05; the Atl was a mad house.


not attacking you or nothing* but your comment instantly reminded me of another blogger post i saw last week... he basically said that he believed that the 05 season spoiled all the users on WU due to the fact that they had something to track every few days or so.... an now we are in this quieter spell we has become restless!
Quoting 649. GTstormChaserCaleb:
We'll see about that both of you. I'll say it now I don't see 94L recurving OTS and as far as the whole trend thing goes, we'll see how the rest of this season plays out.


LOL. You got a little fiesty yesterday. All in good fun though.
Quoting 643. Kowaliga:



Yeah, and I think the Euro is kinda wacko dive bombing a cutoff low into the SEUS when the GFS has a solid ridge @240h...

The GFS and CFS continue to hold firm on the 588 dm. nosing into the Eastern US. The CFS has that going all the way into Arizona. Patterns do change during the season even if it is for a week. That week when it happens can make all the difference in the world.
Quoting 650. StormJunkie:



Confidence in it even being in the Carib is low at this point. This isn't Bertha in the sense that the models have been all over the place. Not to mention that none of the globals are very interested in it...And usually they would at least be biting if it had much of a chance.

What I've gathered so far is that it will have a chance in a couple days, for a couple days, and then will have to take a couple days of rough conditions in order to emerge in the W Carib and maybe have a couple more have way decent days. If it even ends up in the Carib. If it separates from the ITCZ. A whole lot of "Ifs" have to come together for this to amount to much. And for the record, just because it is a trash wave doesn't mean I'm not interested.

Like you said, even storms like Andrew were "trash" waves at one point or another.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I'm interested in 94L. I think this system may have a chance to become something once in the Caribbean in 7 days.



what makes you think this is going into the Caribbean? conditions are rather hostile to say the least but it should be watched as peak is near.
Quoting 654. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The GFS and CFS continue to hold firm on the 588 dm. nosing into the Eastern US. The CFS has that going all the way into Arizona. Patterns do change during the season even if it is for a week. That week when it happens can make all the difference in the world.


could be a window of opportunity in 8 to 10 days. Well see.
00z GFS 30hr Rubbish Rainshower forecast...

Quoting 656. hurricane23:


what makes you think this is going into the Caribbean? conditions are rather hostile to say the least but it should be watched as peak is near.


GFS ensembles seem to be keying in on this moving thru the Caribbean as a weak system. Long ways out though.
Quoting StormJunkie:
00z GFS 30hr Rubbish Rainshower forecast...



no dynamical support :0(
PROPERTY OF EUMETSAT FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY

Visualised
Products
AMV
America
XX/INV/94L

Quoting 648. stormpetrol:



yep nasty night here!


could be worse if we were 25 miles south lol
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


GFS ensembles seem to be keying in on this moving thru the Caribbean as a weak system. Long ways out though.


I know what the ensembles show iam just curious what makes you think its heading for the Caribbean? Things may change but with 0 dynamical model support iam not impressed.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:

Sar was probably citing Iniki which was much stronger and a direct hit.
The 135 was for Iwa on Kauai. It was an estimated high gust based on our engineer's report of the type of damage to power pylons. I have no clue about what rainfall total on Hana she's referring to and, frankly, could care less.
Quoting 645. VAbeachhurricanes:



Last year was the first year since 1997 with below average major hurricanes. People continue to act like 2011-2012 were bad years when they were tied for the third most active seasons of ALL TIME.

That may be true, but the overall trend the past several seasons is for storms to struggle for a majority of their lives. Dr. Masters has posted a chart (seen below) several times before, showing that the number of tropical storms lasting two days or less has increased significantly over the past few years. This would tie in with steadily decreasing 500mb relative humidity across the tropical Atlantic over the past few decades. The issue is exactly what kind of trend we're seeing with short-lived storms, as some of that increase could simply be attributed to better detection methods.

Quoting 655. EpsilonWeather:


Like you said, even storms like Andrew were "trash" waves at one point or another.


And I know that many, if not most may not take it this way...But the "trash" talk is mostly just me being cynical/comical about the tendency for these systems to get over hyped before they deserve it. It's all in good fun until something really gets serious.
Quoting 659. StormTrackerScott:



GFS ensembles seem to be keying in on this moving thru the Caribbean as a weak system. Long ways out though.


Actually, the most recent ensemble we have is pretty much set on it not developing.
Quoting 636. beell:



(loop stolen from Kowaliga)




You're a good role model, beell.
Quoting 663. hurricane23:


I know what the ensembles show iam just curious what makes you think its heading for the Caribbean? Things may change but with 0 dynamical model support iam not impressed.


Strong trough over the SE US with a strong ridge over Bermuda if the Euro's pattern is correct for days 5 thru 10. Again a path OTS could occur as well.
Quoting 663. hurricane23:



I know what the ensembles show iam just curious what makes you think its heading for the Caribbean? Things may change but with 0 dynamical model support iam not impressed.
Wouldn't the wave continue moving west and eventually make it into the Caribbean even if it doesn't organize further?
00z GFS 57hr Trash 850mb vort

674. beell
Quoting 665. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That may be true, but the overall trend the past several seasons is for storms to struggle for a majority of their lives. Dr. Masters has posted a chart (seen below) several times before, showing that the number of tropical storms lasting two days or less has increased significantly over the past few years. This would tie in with steadily decreasing 500mb relative humidity across the tropical Atlantic over the past few decades. The issue is exactly what kind of trend we're seeing with short-lived storms, as some of that increase could simply be attributed to better detection methods.




Or it could be in part due to naming trash more often.
;-]
Quoting 669. Astrometeor:



You're a good role model, beell.


That, and just generally a smart guy.
Quoting 665. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That may be true, but the overall trend the past several seasons is for storms to struggle for a majority of their lives. Dr. Masters has posted a chart (seen below) several times before, showing that the number of tropical storms lasting two days or less has increased significantly over the past few years. This would tie in with steadily decreasing 500mb relative humidity across the tropical Atlantic over the past few decades. The issue is exactly what kind of trend we're seeing with short-lived storms, as some of that increase could simply be attributed to better detection methods.



I think its fairly obvious that its due to better detection methods, if there wasn't a ship there to report it and it only lasted what would be 4-6 advisories, then no one would know it existed. Its hard to believe its just a major coincidence that storms less than two days coincides with the increase of technology to detect them.

Basically that will be determined whether in the next 20 years if they continue to increase or it levels out. Not sure people here have that kind of patience to avoid jumping to conclusions :p
Quoting 669. Astrometeor:


You're a good role model, beell.


I agree, beell is a good guy.
For years I used to think that beell was a woman.
Quoting 654. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The GFS and CFS continue to hold firm on the 588 dm. nosing into the Eastern US. The CFS has that going all the way into Arizona. Patterns do change during the season even if it is for a week. That week when it happens can make all the difference in the world.


Its hard to tell...but the typhoons that were "charging" the jet stream have subsided for now and the GFS has been consistent in building a ridge in the E around third week of Aug.
Quoting 678. Drakoen:
For years I used to think that beell was a woman.


Not another presslord.
Quoting 677. StormTrackerScott:



I agree, beell is a good guy.

now ya gone and done it beell don't need to hear that now he will be bad for the rest of the week
Quoting 678. Drakoen:

For years I used to think that beell was a woman.
lol

big girl that beell is
Quoting 666. StormJunkie:



And I know that many, if not most may not take it this way...But the "trash" talk is mostly just me being cynical/comical about the tendency for these systems to get over hyped before they deserve it. It's all in good fun until something really gets serious.


Yes, and that's all good, but when you keep going to the well based on the annoyance factor that some feel towards it, it makes it juvenile and your better than that.
Quoting 678. Drakoen:

For years I used to think that beell was a woman.


Wait shes not?
Quoting 656. hurricane23:



what makes you think this is going into the Caribbean? conditions are rather hostile to say the least but it should be watched as peak is near.


Hostile conditions doesn't mean it can't enter the Caribbean.

In my opinion it's more likely to head north of the islands given the 500 mb height forecasts, but it's so far east that it may begin to move more westward under a building ridge with time. The amplified trough in the models departs late this week.
Quoting 678. Drakoen:

For years I used to think that beell was a woman.


lmao...Why, just cause he was "less"?
I'm sorry just have to, if KEEP has to remove this I understand.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That may be true, but the overall trend the past several seasons is for storms to struggle for a majority of their lives. Dr. Masters has posted a chart (seen below) several times before, showing that the number of tropical storms lasting two days or less has increased significantly over the past few years. This would tie in with steadily decreasing 500mb relative humidity across the tropical Atlantic over the past few decades. The issue is exactly what kind of trend we're seeing with short-lived storms, as some of that increase could simply be attributed to better detection methods.

I agree. It's not just total numbers but also quality of storms. Several of the tropical storms from last year formed in or near the BOC and went nowhere except to keel over onshore. Humberto and Ingrid were both pretty poor excuses for hurricanes, even for a cat 1. TS Melissa looked better than either of them. Then we had Fernand and TD Eight. No, I believe something has changed over the last couple of years. Global warming, multidecadal north atlantic oscillation, sunspots on Mars...call it what you will, but something's not right.
Quoting 684. DeepSeaRising:



Yes, and that's all good, but when you keep going to the well based on the annoyance factor that some feel towards it, it makes it juvenile and your better than that.


I was going to recommend he take an Ativan...
693. beell
Quoting 678. Drakoen:

For years I used to think that beell was a woman.


I would never make it to work on time if I was, Drak.
;)
Quoting 688. StormJunkie:



lmao...Why, just cause he was "less"?


I don't understand what you're saying.
NHC going bullish on this system by morning. Shear dropping dry air better than what Bertha fought through. Look for 30/60%.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Wait shes not?
He used to be...or so I've heard. :-)
Geez odsin; simmer down...Sit back and watch the trash wave in the Atl.
Who iz Beell?
What DOES Beell do?
How old IS Beell?

"submarine" on shark week was interesting for the first night.
Quoting 664. sar2401:

The 135 was for Iwa on Kauai. It was an estimated high gust based on our engineer's report of the type of damage to power pylons. I have no clue about what rainfall total on Hana she's referring to and, frankly, could care less.
I cannot find data to substantiate the 10-15" rain you said fell on the Hana side of Maui during Iniki. And not to worry about answering the question I had about the Iwa vs Iniki damages. Thanks just the same. I got the picture.
Quoting 695. DeepSeaRising:

NHC going bullish on this system by morning. Shear dropping dry air better than what Bertha fought through. Look for 30/60%.

Maybe a little too high...
I'd personally keep it at 10% for 48, and raise it to 50% for 5-day.
702. beell
Quoting 688. StormJunkie:



lmao...Why, just cause he was "less"?


I suppose it's time for the annual telling. My original handle was "boobless". Trollish to some. Stormjunkie graciously Politically Corrected it to bl and a few still use that. Current handle is phonetic for "bl".
"be ell".

Thanks, SJ.
:/

Now, back to the weather!
90 hrs out. GFS holding on to it...Barely.

Women love the science and dominate the t.v landscape of meteorology. WU has more quality women posters than any other tropical site. To find one though is another story. They are a minority among women and rise fast. Far easier on the eyes too, than say a Sar. :)
Quoting 595. FOREX:



thought it was just me.
where's the center?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We haven't seen a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic since October 2, 2011.

We haven't had a Cat 5 since 2007
Quoting 697. StormJunkie:

Geez odsin; simmer down...Sit back and watch the trash wave in the Atl.
Hey even I get fiesty, but not like that. I think he wins fiestiness of the year award.
Quoting StormJunkie:
00z GFS 57hr Trash 850mb vort

FWIW, the UKMET and NAVGEM both want to kill it before it gets to the Caribbean.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hey even I get fiesty, but not like that. I think he wins fiestiness of the year award.

Go brave or go home is the saying right?
Quoting 707. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hey even I get fiesty, but not like that. I think he wins fiestiness of the year award.


Lol. About that El-Nino I was wrong way wrong on strength. I still think we get one though of moderate strength.
Quoting 702. beell:



I suppose it's time for the annual telling. My original handle was "boobless". Trollish to some. Stormjunkie graciously Politically Corrected it to bl. Current handle is phonetic for "bl". "be ell".

Thanks, SJ.

Now, back to the weather!
Wow. This blob can be hilarious at times, but I think the night crew is the best. Shhh don't tell the other crew that. ;)
Quoting 711. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wow. This blob can be hilarious at times, but I think the night crew is the best. Shhh don't tell the other crew that. ;)

Yes, this "Blob" sure has it's moments of humor ;)
UKMET & NAVGEM aren't that reliable you know.
DeepSea...Your perception or impression may be that the reason I do is for an "annoyance" factor; but that couldn't be further from the truth. Bertha was lame...Even the Dr said so. We have no significant model support for 94. It is simply a more interesting and entertaining way of saying "I have my doubts", or "Outlook not so good", etc.

lol beel, I wasn't going to tell the story. Personally, I liked the original handle. I just thought maybe that's where all the "girl" talk came from.
Quoting 711. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wow. This blob can be hilarious at times, but I think the night crew is the best. Shhh don't tell the other crew that. ;)


You mean blog. :):)
This system is going to surprise many. Very moist environment and when shear lowers tomorrow this will begin to form. Tuesday night we'll have a TD, Wednesday a TS and this will be a 65-70mph storm as it enters the eastern Caribbean. It will weaken to a 55mph TS until it reaches the western Caribbean and then strengthen to a 85mph cane as it hits Cuba and weakens back to a 60mph TS as it enters the Gulf. Will be a Gulf storm and regain hurricane strength and make landfall somewhere between Alabama and Texas. Kori will get his storm to chase. Will land as 85mph hurricane. I base this on nothing but my incomplete understanding of tropical development.
Pshhhhh WU i was defending you and I got banned :p
Little ragged, underdeveloped 94L finally coming into view

Quoting 717. VAbeachhurricanes:
Pshhhhh WU i was defending you and I got banned :p


I haven't been banned in a long time. I have been trying to be better behaved on here.
Quoting 706. wunderkidcayman:


We haven't had a Cat 5 since 2007
1 more year to wait u will get your cat5 hurricane then
Quoting 716. DeepSeaRising:

This system is going to surprise many. Very moist environment and when shear lowers tomorrow this will begin to form. Tuesday night we'll have a TD, Wednesday a TS and this will be a 65-70mph storm as it enters the eastern Caribbean. It will weaken to a 55mph TS until it reaches the western Caribbean and then strengthen to a 85mph cane as it hits Cuba and weakens back to a 60mph TS as it enters the Gulf. Will be a Gulf storm and regain hurricane strength and make landfall somewhere between Alabama and Texas. Kori will get his storm to chase. Will land as 85mph hurricane. I base this on nothing but my incomplete understanding of tropical development.


I'll give you 5/1 odds. Want some action?
Quoting 710. StormTrackerScott:



Lol. About that El-Nino I was wrong way wrong on strength. I still think we get on though of moderate strength.
I'll be honest I bought into the Super El Nino thing, especially after the Doc. made a post about it. I remember posting charts of the 1997 and 1982 El Nino. And the signature or warm tongue looked so promising. So you're thinking like 2009 now?
beell still hasn't told us his occupation. :\
Quoting 671. Grothar:






That is pretty pessimistic actually for that product, which often shows 80 or 90% chance of TC development when none of the 20 GEFS members close a 1004 mb low. I kind of use that as a screen. Right now, 2 of the 18Z and none of the 12Z GEFS close off a 1004 mb low in the next week. Lowering the net a bit to 1008 mb, next weekend off Africa might be a place to look, but it isn't 94L.

I got banned from a weather forum because the admin likes to use that graphic as 'weenie bait' and I called him out on it as a near useless product.

All that said, 94L is now coming into GOES range and has a circulation at some level. So glass 3/16th optimistic on 94L becoming a TC on satellite presentation. 94L also looks, to my amateur eyes, several degrees West of where BAMM initialized it

Unless I am just completely looking at the wrong blob with rotation coming into GOES range.

I still don't know how those probabilities are developed,
Quoting 714. StormJunkie:

DeepSea...Your perception or impression may be that the reason I do is for an "annoyance" factor; but that couldn't be further from the truth. Bertha was lame...Even the Dr said so. We have no significant model support for 94. It is simply a more interesting and entertaining way of saying "I have my doubts", or "Outlook not so good", etc.

lol beel, I wasn't going to tell the story. Personally, I liked the original handle. I just thought maybe that's where all the "girl" talk came from.


I can respect that, mind you it doesn't annoy me at all. Just i see it annoys many. Bertha was intriguing. A hurricane is never junk. That said, I've seen better not warned thunderstorms over lake Michigan. I like what you add, and what you add in humor's sake.
For those that are just figuring it out...It's a fine mix of life events, comedy, meteorology, psychology, education, and the occasional sports talk...Especially once college football starts. Nature of the beast. Enjoy it for what it is.
Quoting 723. TropicalAnalystwx13:

beell still hasn't told us his occupation. :\


oh no he didn't
Quoting 718. Grothar:

Little ragged, underdeveloped 94L finally coming into view


its getting closer interesting group of clouds the twist is there another invisible one in nw carb as well
729. FOREX
Quoting 701. EpsilonWeather:


Maybe a little too high...
I'd personally keep it at 10% for 48, and raise it to 50% for 5-day.


heading into a lot of dry air in two days.
Quoting 722. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll be honest I bought into the Super El Nino thing, especially after the Doc. made a post about it. I remember posting charts of the 1997 and 1982 El Nino. And the signature or warm tongue looked so promising. So you're thinking like 2009 now?


CFS seems to be thinking 2002 to 2009 blend.

Quoting 714. StormJunkie:

DeepSea...Your perception or impression may be that the reason I do is for an "annoyance" factor; but that couldn't be further from the truth. Bertha was lame...Even the Dr said so. We have no significant model support for 94. It is simply a more interesting and entertaining way of saying "I have my doubts", or "Outlook not so good", etc.

lol beel, I wasn't going to tell the story. Personally, I liked the original handle. I just thought maybe that's where all the "girl" talk came from.

Bertha was only lame because it wasn't pretty, and you know that's the real truth ;)
Quoting 721. VAbeachhurricanes:



I'll give you 5/1 odds. Want some action?


It's on, I have only debt to put up. Is that okay?
Another wave about to come off of Africa. It looks like we may be fighting on here for a few weeks.

Quoting 715. Grothar:



You mean blog. :):)
LOL, I guess we need a good laugh sometimes. I guess it's getting past my bedtime as well.
735. beell



Quoting 714. StormJunkie:

DeepSea...Your perception or impression may be that the reason I do is for an "annoyance" factor; but that couldn't be further from the truth. Bertha was lame...Even the Dr said so. We have no significant model support for 94. It is simply a more interesting and entertaining way of saying "I have my doubts", or "Outlook not so good", etc.

lol beel, I wasn't going to tell the story. Personally, I liked the original handle. I just thought maybe that's where all the "girl" talk came from.


Maybe so, Sj. Even "boobless" was subject to interpretation!
Quoting 716. DeepSeaRising:

This system is going to surprise many. Very moist environment and when shear lowers tomorrow this will begin to form. Tuesday night we'll have a TD, Wednesday a TS and this will be a 65-70mph storm as it enters the eastern Caribbean. It will weaken to a 55mph TS until it reaches the western Caribbean and then strengthen to a 85mph cane as it hits Cuba and weakens back to a 60mph TS as it enters the Gulf. Will be a Gulf storm and regain hurricane strength and make landfall somewhere between Alabama and Texas. Kori will get his storm to chase. Will land as 85mph hurricane. I base this on nothing but my incomplete understanding of tropical development.


I continue to have a good feeling about the steering pattern this season. I don't care how many troughs we've had over the last few weeks, the season as a whole has featured a far less anomalous cyclonic pattern over the western Atlantic/eastern US. The GFS/ECMWF/GFS ensembles forecast of a ridge is probably being overdone as it often is, but every single person on this blog can quote me when I say I'm confident we won't have a repeat of the last few years.
January 2015. Looks like an active southern jet this Winter.

DeepSea...Was I in here watching Bertha's every move? Point is, yes it was interesting as all of the systems in the Atl are to me. Have to moderate my time between family, weather, and work so I don't spend a lot of time on the other basins. Home town bias I guess. Been here every season for the past 10 years; learning something new every year. forgetting something I used to know every year. Just because I called something trash or junk doesn't mean I don't find it interesting.
Quoting 724. EdMahmoud:



That is pretty pessimistic actually for that product, which often shows 80 or 90% chance of TC development when none of the 20 GEFS members close a 1004 mb low. I kind of use that as a screen. Right now, 2 of the 18Z and none of the 12Z GEFS close off a 1004 mb low in the next week. Lowering the net a bit to 1008 mb, next weekend off Africa might be a place to look, but it isn't 94L.

I got banned from a weather forum because the admin likes to use that graphic as 'weenie bait' and I called him out on it as a near useless product.

All that said, 94L is now coming into GOES range and has a circulation at some level. So glass 3/16th optimistic on 94L becoming a TC on satellite presentation. 94L also looks, to my amateur eyes, several degrees West of where BAMM initialized it

Unless I am just completely looking at the wrong blob with rotation coming into GOES range.

I still don't know how those probabilities are developed,



Did you just call me a "weenie"?
hope everyone is experiencing good weather by them :D
here is latest full Northern Hemisphere Enhanced Water Vapor Animation
13 minutes old update time 1209 est
Quoting 723. TropicalAnalystwx13:

beell still hasn't told us his occupation. :\


He makes bells, or rings them
Am I looking at the correct blob with rotation at some level? BAMM doesn't have 94L where I think it is until tomorrow afternoon or evening.



ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/14081100AL9414_ ships.txt

Quoting 725. DeepSeaRising:



I can respect that, mind you it doesn't annoy me at all. Just i see it annoys many. Bertha was intriguing. A hurricane is never junk. That said, I've seen better not warned thunderstorms over lake Michigan. I like what you add, and what you add in humor's sake.


sorry SJ..its annoying..its like a bad comedy show thats on a world wide tour hitting every city, village and pub that just wont end..

and Scott Submarine shark was the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen them do..a 35 foot shark thats hides behind oil rigs?? I hope tomorrow is better with real footage and not these fake reenactments..

746. beell
Quoting 723. TropicalAnalystwx13:

beell still hasn't told us his occupation. :\


I am solely responsible for the integrity and protection of our nations utility infrastructure.
Next time your lights go out...think of me!
:)
Quoting 739. Grothar:




Did you just call me a "weenie"?


No. Just saying anything less than 90% on that product is pessimistic.
Quoting 735. beell:






Maybe so, Sj. Even "boobless" was subject to interpretation!


I'm not sure how I would have interpreted boo bless had i ever read it that way, especially after Ike...but yes, we all interpret things differently for sure.
Quoting 702. beell:



Now, back to the weather!


1. That was uh, interesting.

2. But I don't wanna go back to the weather! It da night blog.
Quoting beell:


I am solely responsible for the integrity and protection of our nations utility infrastructure.
:)


So you're a cable guy?
Quoting 733. Grothar:

Another wave about to come off of Africa. It looks like we may be fighting on here for a few weeks.


no by till at least sept 15 I think
Quoting 740. Josihua2:

hope everyone is experiencing good weather by them :D
Had a nice tropical downpour earlier today. I know that got Jedkins excited. Me and him like to fight over westerly winds.
Quoting 736. KoritheMan:



I continue to have a good feeling about the steering pattern this season. I don't care how many troughs we've had over the last few weeks, the season as a whole has featured a far less anomalous cyclonic pattern over the western Atlantic/eastern US. The GFS/ECMWF/GFS ensembles forecast of a ridge is probably being overdone as it often is, but every single person on this blog can quote me when I say I'm confident we won't have a repeat of the last few years.


That's quite bold Kori. So you see one or two hurricane landfalls for say Florida or Gulf states? I think that could well come to fruition.l
Quoting 745. DeepSeaRising:



Gro, in the terms of a man who is the the second cousin of Adam, your still quite handsome. I hope I look that good at 2,801.


I was kind of hot if I do say so myself. And contrary to what sar wrote, I still am not gray. I have a few wisps around my sideburns, but that's it. Thanks for that compliment. You made an old man smile.
Quoting Drakoen:
For years I used to think that beell was a woman.


Heh.
And it shall end nc...When a system shows something more than junk; or when I move on to the next thing. But trust me, the point of referencing something as "rubbish" is not to annoy anyone.
Quoting 751. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no by till at least sept 15 I think


I think all of September will be active. (We missed you BTW)
Quoting 744. ncstorm:



sorry SJ..its annoying..its like a bad comedy show thats on a world wide tour hitting every city, village and pub that just wont end..

and Scott Submarine shark was the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen them do..a 35 foot shark thats hides behind oil rigs?? I hope tomorrow is better with real footage and not these fake reenactments..




I regret calling waves "trash" now. At first it was amusing but now it's been driven to the ground.
759. beell
Thanks for the laughs with me, at me, near me, etc, friends.
Time to Alt>Ctrl>Del
Weak and just S of PR. 00z 156hr.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Pshhhhh WU i was defending you and I got banned :p
Happens all the time. Don't reply to obvious psychotic/dimwit posts, no matter how much you want to, or you get caught in the dragnet.
El Nino better hurry, clock's a tickin' and I really don't see a definitive path here. Looks like a Hybrid "El Nina", lotsa cold pools intermixed.

Quoting 746. beell:



I am solely responsible for the integrity and protection of our nations utility infrastructure.
Next time your lights go out...think of me!
:)


They did today. I had to work, too (luckily it didn't wake me up, though).

Tell your cohorts to do their job!
Quoting 731. EpsilonWeather:


Bertha was only lame because it wasn't pretty, and you know that's the real truth ;)


No, it was lame because it could never keep its act together. Again, lame doesn't mean it wasn't interesting; but she could never hold on to convection for more than 12 to 24 hrs at a time.
SHIPS shows bad Easterly shear for the next two days, then relaxing which finally would allow strengthening.

But I still think the 7 pm CDT position of 94L is well East of where the actual 94L blob is. Unless shear really is that bad, and I'm seeing a displaced mid level center on satellite.
Quoting 753. DeepSeaRising:



That's quite bold Kori. So you see one or two hurricane landfalls for say Florida or Gulf states? I think that could well come to fruition.l


I see about two more landfalls for the US.

I seriously can't be the only one who recognizes that this not the typical 500 mb El Nino configuration.

Like how can anyone NOT?
Quoting Drakoen:


I regret calling waves "trash" now. At first it was amusing but now it's been driven to the ground.

i admit it was funny when i first saw it being used here but didnt expect it to still be used up to this day.... its loosing that taste we all laughed due to *prolonged usage*
Quoting 762. ProgressivePulse:

El Nino better hurry, clock's a tickin' and I really don't see a definitive path here. Looks like a Hybrid "El Nina", lotsa cold pools intermixed.


whats interesting to me is how warm further north has become and been so for quite some time

wundering what the effect on patterns its creating and what we are seeing and going to see


Quoting 764. StormJunkie:



No, it was lame because it could never keep its act together. Again, lame doesn't mean it wasn't interesting; but she could never hold on to convection for more than 12 to 24 hrs at a time.

As I recall she did hold on to convection, it just wasn't very organized or deep... which could be filed under aesthetic aspects ;), all that really matters is what's underneath the hood, even if the hood is a hot mess...
Quoting 765. EdMahmoud:

SHIPS shows bad Easterly shear for the next two days, then relaxing which finally would allow strengthening.

But I still think the 7 pm CDT position of 94L is well East of where the actual 94L blob is. Unless shear really is that bad, and I'm seeing a displaced mid level center on satellite.
Idk does this work better for you? :D



Seems our interest is focusing more westish.

773. JLPR2
CIMMS maps show two vort max inside a larger one, one is closer to the convection than the other.

Quoting 767. Josihua2:


i admit it was funny when i first saw it being used here but didnt expect it to still be used up to this day.... its loosing that taste we all laughed due to *prolonged usage*


YOLOSWAG
Quoting 768. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

whats interesting to me is how warm further north has become and been so for quite some time

wundering what the effect on patterns its creating and what we are seeing and going to see



It's probably why the CPAC has been active.
I remember back in the early 1950's there was a weathergirl (old term) on national news by the name of Carol Reed. One of the first I can remember. Our mother hated her. She would often say things like "the high will be in the mid to lower 60's" or a low will form over the high." Our mother would scream, "make up your mind. Is it high, low or medium!"

I guess people have been fighting over the weather for years.
Quoting 767. Josihua2:


i admit it was funny when i first saw it being used here but didnt expect it to still be used up to this day.... its loosing that taste we all laughed due to *prolonged usage*


Can't really be much worse than pretending there is some reason to think that 94 is going to develop in to a significant system at some point when there is little to no support for that ATM.

00z GFS drops it again in the eastern Carib.

Night all!
The error on the early track models initializing 94L on the first run was overall not so good, some were really bad like 50-80nm off. GFS's ensemble AP04 did best witha href="The error on the early track models initializing 94L on the first run was overall not so good, some were really bad like 50-80nm off. GFS's ensemble AP04 did best with 8.4nm of error.
Quoting 758. Drakoen:



I regret calling waves "trash" now. At first it was amusing but now it's been driven to the ground.


You just need a new substitute for them, Drak. Perhaps they are Gro-esque or something.

Just don't descend down the selfie/yolo/words that are not words. Then I will feel disgusted with this blob (I'm taking Caleb's misspelling as my own, because beell taught me it was okay to steal).
Quoting 778. Skyepony:

The error on the early track models initializing 94L on the first run was overall not so good, some were really bad like 50-80nm off. GFS's ensemble AP04 did best with 8.4nm of error.


Link's broken, Skye.
Keep your head down if you are in Missouri tonight.
Quoting 768. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

whats interesting to me is how warm further north has become and been so for quite some time

wundering what the effect on patterns its creating and what we are seeing and going to see





Don't quite know what to make of it. Atlantic instability is in the trash but has been for a few years for the most part. EPAC is cranking them out so we have to be getting some sort of El Nino.
Quoting 769. EpsilonWeather:


As I recall she did hold on to convection, it just wasn't very organized or deep... which could be filed under aesthetic aspects ;), all that really matters is what's underneath the hood, even if the hood is a hot mess...


Sustained, organized, deep convection is the only way to get something decent under the hood in a tropical system.
Quoting KoritheMan:


YOLOSWAG

hahahaaha u sir win comment of the hour! got a lol from me :D
Quoting 716. DeepSeaRising:

This system is going to surprise many. Very moist environment and when shear lowers tomorrow this will begin to form. Tuesday night we'll have a TD, Wednesday a TS and this will be a 65-70mph storm as it enters the eastern Caribbean. It will weaken to a 55mph TS until it reaches the western Caribbean and then strengthen to a 85mph cane as it hits Cuba and weakens back to a 60mph TS as it enters the Gulf. Will be a Gulf storm and regain hurricane strength and make landfall somewhere between Alabama and Texas. Kori will get his storm to chase. Will land as 85mph hurricane. I base this on nothing but my incomplete understanding of tropical development.
Great forcast! I feel the same way, I don't understand it either, but it sure is fun to come on here and TRY to learn
Quoting 776. Grothar:

I remember back in the early 1950's there was a weathergirl (old term) on national news by the name of Carol Reed. One of the first I can remember. Our mother hated her. She would often say things like "the high will be in the mid to lower 60's" or a low will form over the high." Our mother would scream, "make up your mind. Is it high, low or medium!"

I guess people have been fighting over the weather for years.


Showing your age...
Just did a blog update on the Atlantic tropics including a forecast for 94L. Not so certain about 94L's future...it will have to deal with a southward shifting TUTT by 120 hours as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.
Quoting 783. StormJunkie:



Sustained, organized, deep convection is the only way to get something decent under the hood in a tropical system.

Then riddle me this: Why did recon data support a hurricane when Bertha looked like "rubbish"?
(Baroclinic influence is not an acceptable answer)
Of course if dry air wasn't enough in the Central Atlantic.

Looking at your image Keeper one could argue that that's a full blown La Nina signature, if you didn't know any better.
Quoting 789. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Of course if dry air wasn't enough in the Central Atlantic.




I consider the dry air a good thing. I'm quickly accruing money for a hurricane chase fund, and the more systems struggle in the MDR, the weaker they stay and will in theory therefore be harder to recurve.

#winning
Very intersting video about a hurricane on Saturn that is the size of the earth four times over. The eye is a hexagonal shape, and the borealis is in the same hexagonal shape.
Link
Quoting 791. KoritheMan:



I consider the dry air a good thing. I'm quickly accruing money for a hurricane chase fund, and the more systems struggle in the MDR, the weaker they stay and will in theory therefore be harder to recurve.

#winning
lol
Hope is the worst evil of man, for it prolongs the torment of man. Nictzsche. We see it in the world every day, and in the hopes of many here for an active season. While we here focus on the season, let us not forget that the world, as it has always been struggles through carnage. We hang now on the needles thread of great upheaval and perhaps wars yet unseen. Under Reagan it was seen as a golden age, but it wasn't, same issues, different places. While GW is harped on as the next great issue, let us not forget that man and ambition will always trump that. Whether it be ISIS, Cold War reborn, Palestinian slaughter brought about by their own self destination, or China rising; this blog is but an escape for all of the realities that surround us. Let us pray for the thousands who die daily to devices not of their choosing, and be thankful we can be here discussing such mundane things.
Another rapid mover with that high.

Quoting 794. DeepSeaRising:

Hope is the worst evil of man, for it prolongs the torment of man. Niche. We see it in the world every day, and in the hopes of many here for an active season. While we here focus on the season, let us not forget that the world, as it has always been struggles through carnage. We hang now on the needles thread of great upheaval and perhaps wars yet unseen. Under Reagan it was seen as a golden age, but it wasn't, same issues, different places. While GW is harped on as the next great issue, let us not forget that man and ambition will always trump that. Whether it be ISIS, Cold War reborn, Palestinian slaughter brought about by their own self destination, or China rising; this blog is but an escape for all of the realities that surround us. Let us pray for the thousands who die daily to devices not of their choosing, and be thankful we can be here discussing such mundane things.


Unfortunately for some, I'm one of those "ignore until it affects me" people. I voluntarily ignore most other events.

I usually only indulge myself if I'm curious about why I'm the only person who's ignorant about something important.
Quoting 792. Danali:

Very intersting video about a hurricane on Saturn that is the size of the earth four times over. The eye is a hexagonal shape, and the borealis is in the same hexagonal shape.
Link


Yeah, rotational storms exist on several planets. I wouldn't say they are hurricanes, because the processes are different. But there is the hexagonal storms on Saturn, the Great Red Spot on Jupiter, and the twins on Venus.
Nietzsche

Quoting 782. ProgressivePulse:



Don't quite know what to make of it. Atlantic instability is in the trash but has been for a few years for the most part. EPAC is cranking them out so we have to be getting some sort of El Nino.
here is a better detailed colored image

maybe prevailing winds for a long duration along southern south America from Antarctica pumping colder waters up
is causing the cooling who knows all we can do is watch


Quoting 780. KoritheMan:



Link's broken, Skye.


Can't seem to fix it. Try here without spaces..

www.tropicalatlantic.com/modelsOLD/data.cgi?basin =al&year=2014&storm=94&latestinvest=1&display=mode lerror&type=table&run=latest&errortype=average
I guess we have to post a disclaimer now with everything we post. I did not colorize this. It is just a forecast model of what the pressure MAY be like in 120 hours. I don't know how they do it, nor do I care. But please notice the large white whale swimming north which could be dangerously near some Norwegian whaling boats.

Quoting Astrometeor:


Yeah, rotational storms exist on several planets. I wouldn't say they are hurricanes, because the processes are different. But there is the hexagonal storms on Saturn, the Great Red Spot on Jupiter, and the twins on Venus.


The Venus twins. They're two inverted anticyclones, IIRC.

Quoting 802. CybrTeddy:



The Venus twins. They're two inverted anticyclones, IIRC.




We don't have Fujiwhara interactions like that on Earth! I want my money back!
Quoting 774. KoritheMan:



YOLOSWAG

Quoting 797. Astrometeor:



Yeah, rotational storms exist on several planets. I wouldn't say they are hurricanes, because the processes are different. But there is the hexagonal storms on Saturn, the Great Red Spot on Jupiter, and the twins on Venus.

And don't forget the "great dark spot" on Neptune. Winds of up to 1,500mph!!
Quoting 801. Grothar:

I guess we have to post a disclaimer now with everything we post. I did not colorize this. It is just a forecast model of what the pressure MAY be like in 120 hours. I don't know how they do, nor do I care. But please notice the large white whale swimming north which could be dangerously near some Norwegian whaling boats.



At least it's not the submarine shark.
Quoting 799. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


here is a better detailed colored image

maybe prevailing winds for a long duration along southern south America from Antarctica pumping colder waters up
is causing the cooling who knows all we can do is watch



]


That's for sure in a changing climate.

Honestly it looks like an active El Nino north and active La Nina south.
Quoting 805. opal92nwf:


And don't forget the "great dark spot" on Neptune. Winds of up to 1,500mph!!


I knew I forgot someone, lol. I was like, "Pluto....no...that doesn't deserve even dwarf status, Mercury's atmosphere is debatable if it's even there, uh...Uranus (hehehe)? Nope. Mars has dust devils and storms...."
Quoting 805. opal92nwf:


And don't forget the "great dark spot" on Neptune. Winds of up to 1,500mph!!



Wow, can you imagine what their insurance rates must be?
Quoting 808. Astrometeor:



I knew I forgot someone, lol. I was like, "Pluto....no...that doesn't deserve even dwarf status, Mercury's atmosphere is debatable if it's even there, uh...Uranus (hehehe)? Nope. Mars has dust devils and storms...."


Mercury doesn't even have a crust or mantle let alone an atmosphere, just a big iron core left. Everything was blasted away by the sun a long time ago
Quoting 806. TropicalAnalystwx13:


At least it's not the submarine shark.


Hey Cody, I need you to go to my blog for a moment and read comments #3,4, and if you want, you can leave one as well.
Quoting 807. ProgressivePulse:

]


That's for sure in a changing climate.

Honestly it looks like an active El Nino north and active La Nina south.


One trend I've noticed this year is that all the Pacific cyclones have had a propensity to develop west of 105W. Only Boris developed east of that longitude, if I'm not mistaken. Looking at that map certainly postulates why that could be the case.
Quoting 796. KoritheMan:



Unfortunately for some, I'm one of those "ignore until it affects me" people. I voluntarily ignore most other events.

I usually only indulge myself if I'm curious about why I'm the only person who's ignorant about something important.


Yes Kori, you like tens of millions of American's choose the ignorance is bliss escape from the realities that surround us. You know what I mean by ignorance, it's simply what you choose to not know. You are smart, very smart at that. We choose to ignore on a whole scale in the West, stand at an isolationist stance. Hoping against hope that the world won't come to us with it's problems. Problem is, history has always shown that that's not the way the world works.
Quoting 807. ProgressivePulse:

]


That's for sure in a changing climate.

Honestly it looks like an active El Nino north and active La Nina south.

that's what it looks like
so I guess that's what it is or will be
we got to watch as the seasonal change
and how things change up with it moves along
interesting for sure
Quoting 809. Grothar:



Wow, can you imagine what their insurance rates must be?
1 million Neptunian Dollars!
Quoting 812. KoritheMan:



One trend I've noticed this year is that all the Pacific cyclones have had a propensity to develop west of 105W. Only Boris developed east of that longitude, if I'm not mistaken. Looking at that map certainly postulates why that could be the case.


Quoting 811. Astrometeor:



Hey Cody, I need you to go to my blog for a moment and read comments #3,4, and if you want, you can leave one as well.
Hey Cody, it's a trick don't do it, don't fall for it.

Quoting 813. DeepSeaRising:



Yes Kori, you like tens of millions of American's choose the ignorance is bliss escape from the realities that surround us. You know what I mean by ignorance, it's simply what you choose to not know. You are smart, very smart at that. We choose to ignore on a whole scale in the West, stand at an isolationist stance. Hoping against hope that the world won't come to us with it's problems. Problem is, history has always shown that that's not the way the world works.
Obviously I can't speak for everyone else, but the reason I ignore it is because... honestly... what power do I have to change unfortunate worldly events? Random people die everyday; suddenly paying attention to the news isn't going to change that.

There's no pragmatism there.
Quoting 817. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey Cody, it's a trick don't do it, don't fall for it.


Hah. I don't do tricks usually. That's TA's job....in chat.....I hate those. I'm serious on this one, half surprised he hadn't commented yet, actually. He loves these kinds of blogs.
Quoting 809. Grothar:



Wow, can you imagine what their insurance rates must be?
Wunder what building code's would be?
Levi might feel the effects from Hurricane Julio or its cold core remains.

Quoting 812. KoritheMan:



One trend I've noticed this year is that all the Pacific cyclones have had a propensity to develop west of 105W. Only Boris developed east of that longitude, if I'm not mistaken. Looking at that map certainly postulates why that could be the case.


And hence the Hawaii involvement with the Nward warming.

Julio's eye popping out again as well.

Quoting 818. KoritheMan:


Obviously I can't speak for everyone else, but the reason I ignore it is because... honestly... what power do I have to change unfortunate worldly events? Random people die everyday; suddenly paying attention to the news isn't going to change that.

There's no pragmatism there.



Ah Kori, spoken so true. If the whole world remains blind, then who has to see? We have more refuges now then in WWII, but who cares, who sees, who will speak up? If not the West, then no one. And if that's the case, we are in for real trouble down the road. Believe that.
Quoting 823. DeepSeaRising:



this is not a kinda blog to discuss that sort of thing and maybe do it in chat or something
Quoting 823. DeepSeaRising:



Ah Kori, spoken so true. If the whole world remains blind, then who has to see? We have more refuges now then in WWII, but who cares, who sees, who will speak up? If not the West, then no one. And if that's the case, we are in for real trouble down the road. Believe that.


Your perspective is valid if we apply my own ideologies to everyone. But I feel no guilt when applying that to myself because I DO lack the power to change things.
Quoting 821. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Levi might feel the effects from Hurricane Julio or its cold core remains.



Thought Levi was in Florida now. But Dakster should watch out for this....
Sup Keeper....
nothing much
Quoting 819. Astrometeor:



Hah. I don't do tricks usually. That's TA's job....in chat.....I hate those. I'm serious on this one, half surprised he hadn't commented yet, actually. He loves these kinds of blogs.

:)
Quoting 825. KoritheMan:



Your perspective is valid if we apply my own ideologies to everyone. But I feel no guilt when applying that to myself because I DO lack the power to change things.


That is a universal feeling Kori that keeps things as they are. I'm not saying they are not at face value true. How you feel is the norm in the Western thinking of I as the universal of importance. And I'm not calling you selfish, you probably are more giving and prone to care about others emotionally just based on your background. Yet if most are more selfish and less worldly knowledgeable than you, the problem is large indeed. Ghandi, MLK, John Luther, could have all taken that, "it's not my problem, what can I do?" stance. Where are they in today's world. Nowhere.
Good Night Peeps - Stay Safe - Past My Bedtime - Have a Good Night All
se ya tomorrow ped
Muh oh....

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Quoting 833. sar2401:

Muh oh....

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.



Quoting DeepSeaRising:
Hope is the worst evil of man, for it prolongs the torment of man. Nictzsche. We see it in the world every day, and in the hopes of many here for an active season. While we here focus on the season, let us not forget that the world, as it has always been struggles through carnage. We hang now on the needles thread of great upheaval and perhaps wars yet unseen. Under Reagan it was seen as a golden age, but it wasn't, same issues, different places. While GW is harped on as the next great issue, let us not forget that man and ambition will always trump that. Whether it be ISIS, Cold War reborn, Palestinian slaughter brought about by their own self destination, or China rising; this blog is but an escape for all of the realities that surround us. Let us pray for the thousands who die daily to devices not of their choosing, and be thankful we can be here discussing such mundane things.


Oh knock it off. Go bring that to a political blog. We're not here to "escape reality," we're here because we're passionate about nature and the world around us as revealed by science. I personally believe if people in the world were similar to the people on this blog in that they're curious about understanding nature of things, the world would be a better place. Instead of bombing each other into submission over which ideology is more peaceful or truthful, people might learn to respect and love one another for how small we all really are.

Now, on that note, let's drive the subject of discussion back on topic.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Yep, it's Bertha all over again. Up...down...up....down. Wishcasting, doomcasting, downcasting, nuttycasting...It's going to be a terrible couple of weeks ahead.
Quoting sar2401:
Yep, it's Bertha all over again. Up...down...up....down. Wishcasting, doomcasting, downcasting, nuttycasting...It's going to be a terrible couple of weeks ahead.


You forgot about the Herbert box.
Quoting 836. sar2401:

Yep, it's Bertha all over again. Up...down...up....down. Wishcasting, doomcasting, downcasting, nuttycasting...It's going to be a terrible couple of weeks ahead.
Watching and invest in the atlantic is bad?
Quoting 838. Gearsts:

Watching and invest in the atlantic is bad?


The inevitable pissing contest that results is.
Meanwhile, the East Pacific continues at a near-record pace.

ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of cloudiness and showers centered a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated with a tropical
wave. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit significant
development of the wave during the next couple of days. After that
time, however, environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Blake
Quoting 839. KoritheMan:



The inevitable pissing contest that results is.
That's part of the fun ;)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity has decreased in association with a broad area of
low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of the Cape Verde
Islands. Some gradual development of this system is still possible
in a few days after it encounters a more conducive environment while
it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

we say goodbye to invest 94L soon
Quoting 842. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity has decreased in association with a broad area of
low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of the Cape Verde
Islands. Some gradual development of this system is still possible
in a few days after it encounters a more conducive environment while
it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

we say goodbye to invest 94L soon
lol there we go


we will have invest 95L SOON! right next to invest 94L and tropical wave on land is move to the north and hit cooler water soon or have two invests come together soon..


maybe come together soon!!
Quoting 841. Gearsts:

That's part of the fun ;)


I do enjoy a little pot stirring. Not gonna lie. :D
848. JLPR2
Westernmost vort max took control while the other one faded away. Despite that the convection is still to the SW of it.



Quoting 848. JLPR2:

Westernmost vort max took control while the other one faded away. Despite that the convection is still to the SW of it.








the next tropical wave right next to it!!!
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR E ATLC. A 1012
MB LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N23W.
GUIDANCE FAVORS TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND THE LATEST NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES A MEDIUM CHANGE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. FOR NOW EXPECT A SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANIED BY
15-20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
WATERS ON FRI...REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS FRI NIGHT
AND PASSING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY ON SAT. IN THE
GRIDS...THE POSITIONS OF THE LOW PRES ARE BASED ON THE MEDIUM
RANGE COORDINATION FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING ON WED.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 22N TO A
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N23W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N68W...THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE...TO 16N67W...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
10N67W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W IN PUERTO
RICO...AND IN ITS COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 25N84W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...TO 19N83W AND 13N83W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20
KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
17N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 22N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO
16N80W...TO A 13N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...BEYOND COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS
OF 19N81W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM
14N NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN 79W AND 87W.
NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...WITHIN 30 NM
TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N86W TO 12N88W TO EL SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 22N92W...ACROSS AND BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
22N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 17N16W TO 10N30W AND 10N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N43W
TO 11N55W AND THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN SENEGAL AND MAURITANIA FROM
15N TO 17N BETWEEN 13W AND 16W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 9N
BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 14W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W.





what is going on at 30 west and 9 north!! maybe a new low with all them t.storms and rain there! the rain be there over 24 hours.
Good Monday morning hello with a screenshot of Ex-Bertha. Finally meteorologically interested people stand in awe because of her exceptional appearance (for this time of the year), and her pressure is down to 975hPa.




Click to enlarge.


Forecast map for today from German Weather Service DWD. Nothing else to be seen but Ex-Bertha, lol.

Extreme weather wrecks Norwegian pop star's gig
The Local (Norway), published: 11 Aug 2014 00:00 GMT 02:00
Excerpts from this article:
A second music festival was abandoned in Bore. At the "Lydbolger" festival three revellers are brought to hospital with slight injuries, said "Stavanger Aftenblad".
Per Vervik, concert manager at "Lydbolger", said to "Rogalands Avis": "Some kind of tropical storm came over us. It came incredibly fast and we couldn't have foreseen it. We had no other choice than to cancel [the concert]." ...
Altogether the extreme weather saw 2,300 people evacuated from the two festivals, confirmed police in Rogaland.
Forty-two wind records were set in Rogaland, Hordaland and Sogn & Fjordane over the weekend, NRK reported.
According to the Meteorological Institute of Norway, a storm early in August is unusual. For this reason the extreme weather resulted in 20 wind records being set in Hordaland and Rogaland alone.
Meteorologist Martin Granerod told NTB on Sunday: "The extreme weather was as powerful as forecast. All together thirteen wind records were set in Hordaland for August, and seven wind records in Rogaland. The weather has calmed down in both areas during the morning hours, while there is still full and partially heavy storms at the coast of Sogn & Fjordane."


Nice header, lol:
Stockholm warned as 'Hurricane Bertha' nears
The Local (Sweden), published: 11 Aug 2014 09:36 GMT 02:00
The leftovers from Hurricane Bertha are predicted to hit Sweden on Monday, with forecasters issuing a warning for wayward weather. ...

Lol, guess "tornado" would have been a better choice of words:
Cyclone fells trees and rips off roofs
A clear up operation began in parts of western Germany on Monday morning after winds ripped off roofs and felled trees on Sunday night. A small cyclone hit one spa town.
The Local (Germany), published: 11 Aug 2014 08:57 GMT 02:00


something spinning at 30west and 9 north with rain and t.storms to..


u see invest 94L AND tropical wave
it looks like the apparent centre of 94L has been relocated to 9N 30W.
Quoting 846. hurricanes2018:



maybe come together soon!!
!!
859. MahFL
Looks good to me.

Invest looking healthy this morning, morning to all


at 63 west starting to see more rain!!
the center of invest 94L GOT no rain or t.storm with it all the rain is south west of the center!!!
pythons heading north on I-95. 12 fter discovered in pt st. lucie fl. after a bunch of cats got eaten. only thing that can stop their northern movement is mr freeze.
I wonder if some bloggers actually read the TWO other then just looking at the %. The NHC did not say development could not occur. 94L needs to find a more conducive environment.
865. ackee
I wonder if 94L centre is futher south near 9N it does seem that way to me
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity has changed little in association with a broad area
of low pressure located a couple hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is still
possible in a few days after it encounters a more conducive
environment while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 865. ackee:

I wonder if 94L centre is futher south near 9N it does seem that way to me




I think you are right
Quoting 859. MahFL:

Looks good to me.




The convection is associated with the ITCZ. The actual low is south of Cape Verde, devoid of deep convection.
Quoting 868. KoritheMan:



The convection is associated with the ITCZ. The actual low is south of Cape Verde, devoid of deep convection.




the rain is south of the center of the yellow x the center is dry with no rain ..


Interesting where TVCA (model consensus) is at with 94L.
Central & N FL are in for a very wet week ahead as front stalls across N FL.

modeles have the INVEST 94L MOVING more north now that right because of the cooler weather for the northeast starting on Thursday to sunday
Not a college trained expert, but if anything develops, I'd think it'd be the active, persistent convection with the hint of spin at some level well West of the 94L official position, not the official 94L itself.

But that is just me.
global models not too excited on 94L and pretty much anything else the next 16 days.......
Quoting 815. GTstormChaserCaleb:

1 million Neptunian Dollars!

Great Barrier Reef! That's a lot of money for Mr Krabs!
Good Morning Folks; both Basins (E-Pac/Atlantic); some moisture finally starting to propagate along the Atlantic ITCZ where the invest is embedded (right on the leading edge of the SAL/dry air layer in the Central Atlantic).  Whether is develops not, it will help pave the way for the waves that follow over the next several weeks :


879. MahFL
Quoting 873. StormTrackerScott:

Central & N FL are in for a very wet week ahead as front stalls across N FL.




That's 10 days not a week, and 3 inches is not a lot for Fl in the summer.
Quoting 873. StormTrackerScott:

Central & N FL are in for a very wet week ahead as front stalls across N FL.


that front will save the east coast from any hurricane or tropical storm coming this way for the next few weeks..
My prediction for 94L. Sponsored by the Euclid Winter Storm Forecasting Centre (EWSFC)
2pm: 10/30
8pm: 10/40
2am: 10/40
8am: 20/40
Quoting 879. MahFL:



That's 10 days not a week, and 3 inches is not a lot for Fl in the summer.


That's 5" to 10" across N FL.
Invest,Invest.......but nothing.Spins here,spins there and almost everyone does'nt care.
this yr i thought it was going to be shear but dry air is doing the job. long tracking invest. they used to be called tds but technology has proven that false. this yr+dangerous
Nothing of note at the moment immediately behind the current invest and wave just emerging off the coast of Africa but a good start. Quite frankly, it's going to take a lot of waves over the next 3 weeks to help moisten up the way from Africa all the way to the Lesser Antilles given the very pervasive dry and dusty air in the Central Atlantic;
  
Quoting 878. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks; both Basins (E-Pac/Atlantic); some moisture finally starting to propagate along the Atlantic ITCZ where the invest is embedded (right on the leading edge of the SAL/dry air layer in the Central Atlantic).  Whether is develops not, it will help pave the way for the waves that follow over the next several weeks :





It seems as everyone says that about every wave that comes off Africa lately. Bertha was supposedly paving the way as well and we all saw what happened once Bertha moved OTS another SAL outbreak came off Africa.
Quoting 885. weathermanwannabe:

Nothing of note at the moment immediately behind the current invest and wave just emerging off the coast of Africa but a good start. Quite frankly, it's going to take a lot of waves over the next 3 weeks to help moisten up the way from Africa all the way to the Lesser Antilles given the very pervasive dry and dusty air in the Central Atlantic;
  
well according to the global models, we won't see anything develop in 16 days which is worrisome given that's when the peak is
Quoting 863. islander101010:

pythons heading north on I-95. 12 fter discovered in pt st. lucie fl. after a bunch of cats got eaten. only thing that can stop their northern movement is mr freeze.


We had one in Apopka of 18' living under someone's house a few years ago. Same thing cats and dogs were coming up missing and no one could figure out why.
Quoting 887. wunderweatherman123:

well according to the global models, we won't see anything develop in 16 days which is worrisome given that's when the peak is


Looks like I might be dead on my predictions for 5 to 7 named systems this year as the Peak of hurricane season is just a few weeks away now.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Looks like I might be dead on my predictions for 5 to 7 named systems this year as the Peak of hurricane season is just a few weeks away now.



94L rip I don't see any thing for the next 3. Weeks or so


i will gave this tropical wave about 10%
40's across western NC in August for lows. Amazing!



Quoting 890. Tazmanian:



94L rip I don't see any thing for the next 3. Weeks or so


Going to be as long season on the blog for some wanting an active season. Especially now that the troughs are only going to get stronger as we move into September.
Quoting 882. StormTrackerScott:



That's 5" to 10" across N FL.
Kind of ruined my vacation. Many spring fed rivers will be tea colored with swamp water leaching into them. Visibility in Alexander Springs river less than a foot.
SAL/dry air has been extremely pervasive in the Central Atlantic, and Caribbean, for weeks now.  Not so say that "one" wave can't beat the odds and actually develop into a tropical storm before reaching the Antilles  But, what we have seen the last two Cape Verde seasons are struggling tropical storms in the Central Atlantic due to a few unfavorable key issues; dry stable air-pervasive SAL; anomalous fast trade winds to name a few.  As someone pointed out last week, SAL did back off along the ITCZ during the peak last year, but the otherwise stable dry air did not create enough instability to foster strong convection and not much moisture along the ITCZ that a TD/TS could "carry with it" as it lifted north.

At least the current invest is moving at 15 mph which is a little slower than Bertha and more in line with more favorable trades this year.    
Morning all. Junk wave getting no global love yet I see. NHC lowering chances. Outlook for 94 seems to be getting worse and worse.
ATLANTIC 8/11/2014

On cue in mid-August, "African Easterly Wave" (AEW) activity is picking up. The lead one which has come off Africa has dry air to fight. So did Arthur, TD2, Bertha, and Iselle, and they became tropical cyclones. Some models say 94L will too, others say it'll lose the battle.

NHC nudged the odds of development within five days up a smidgen with their outlook Sunday afternoon, but has since nudged the odds back down. So far there's not yet any increase in organization evident.

The time frame if a wave or something else were to make it all the way to the Lesser Antilles would be Saturday-ish.
Quoting 891. hurricanes2018:



i will gave this tropical wave about 10%
Really?
Quoting 894. Pallis1:

Kind of ruined my vacation. Many spring fed rivers will be tea colored with swamp water leaching into them. Visibility in Alexander Springs river less than a foot.


Nice are up there in Northern Lake County. I used to live near there as a kid.
With all of these strong cold fronts coming south I suspect that killing frost and freezes are looming across the Midwest & NE US come September as temps are already getting quite cool in areas in the dead of summer.
Quoting 893. StormTrackerScott:



Going to be as long season on the blog for some wanting an active season. Especially now that the troughs are only going to get stronger as we move into September.


Uh, on what basis? The GFS and ECMWF show ridging. Why am I the only one on the blog pointing this out continually?
Quoting 902. KoritheMan:



Uh, on what basis? The GFS and ECMWF show ridging. Why am I the only one the blog pointing this out continually?


I don't see it on the Euro and even if there was shear and dry air will keep anything that tries to form at bay. We need an El-Nino to shake things up IMO.

big ? maybe a new low will be in them t.storms soon..
Quoting 904. StormTrackerScott:



I don't see it on the Euro and even if there was shear and dry air will keep anything that tries to form at bay. We need an El-Nino to shake things up IMO.


The Euro shows a weaker ridge, but there is no amplified trough either.
See Yall later (busy morning ahead); just don't jump on every wave out there between now and September as the odds are against development for the majority of the waves we will see this season:

Tropical Wave (African or Easterly Wave)

A tropical wave is a trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade wind easterlies. These
waves tend to reach maximum amplitude in the lower to middle troposphere and may or may not be
accompanied by thunderstorm clusters. Although there is still some debate on the issue, these
easterly waves are thought to originate or become amplified as a result of meteorological conditions
over the continent of Africa. Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the
tropical North Atlantic. Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any
significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally
weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds.
Quoting 906. KoritheMan:



The Euro shows a weaker ridge, but there is no amplified trough either.


OZ Euro shows an east coast trough for the next 10 days. This will likely last thru the rest of the summer and only get stronger from here on out as September is knocking on the door now.
No signs of life in long range models for the Atl, and continued troughiness across the E coast.

Chs NWS

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT APPEARS STALLED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE LATE WEEK TIME
FRAME...WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
Quoting 900. Tazmanian:




Yep the wish caster need two go take a nic long vacation and come back next season or the season after nothing two see here this season
Deserve words for someone.
Quoting 908. StormTrackerScott:



OZ Euro shows an east coast trough for the next 10 days. This likely last thru the rest of the summer and only get stronger from here on out as September is knocking on the door now.


I saw a very weak and diffuse area of low pressure in the 500mb anomaly fields at 240 hours when I looked at that run earlier. Hardly resembling a trough, maybe a weak cutoff or something. It also wasn't there on the 12z run, and it's entirely natural to have the strength of the ridge/trough pattern fluctuate from run to run when we go that far out.

The ECMWF is likely portraying a more realistic pattern with somewhat less ridging than the GFS, but there's literally not a modicum of evidence this ends up being another recurve year.
912. SLU
The large blob of convection south of 10N is nothing more than an ITCZ flare up at the intersection of the wave axis and the ITCZ. The center of 94L is around 12n 26w where dry air is limiting convection. The main negative factor here is its location which is too far north. If the center was near 9n that would skyrocket 94L's chances of development. But for now, it looks more like a sacrificial lamb that eats up dry air to pave the way for the next couple of waves.

Quoting 909. StormJunkie:

No signs of life in long range models for the Atl, and continued troughiness across the E coast.

Chs NWS

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT APPEARS STALLED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE LATE WEEK TIME
FRAME...WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN UNITED STATES.


Just to clarify, there will likely be another trough (which actually appears to be developing now), but I expected this anyway.

I'm talking about after. That trough is forecast to depart in about 6 or 7 days.
Quoting 901. StormTrackerScott:

With all of these strong cold fronts coming south I suspect that killing frost and freezes are looming across the Midwest & NE US come September as temps are already getting quite cool in areas in the dead of summer.
I live in he northeast I see few big strong cold fronts coming south end of this week and next week to maybe going down to upper 40s at night
Quoting 913. KoritheMan:



Just to clarify, there will likely be another trough (which actually appears to be developing now), but I expected this anyway.

I'm talking about after. That trough is forecast to depart in about 6 or 7 days.


Euro keeps it there thru day 10. That's been the pattern all summer.
Quoting 902. KoritheMan:



Uh, on what basis? The GFS and ECMWF show ridging. Why am I the only one on the blog pointing this out continually?


From what I can tell, the ridge has a very thin nose that extends towards the Bahamas. Despite the "humping the ridge" urban legend, seems the pattern right now would favor weak and southern systems continuing to head through the Carib while stronger systems would pull N, and with the help of the troughing, erode the nose of the ridge enough to turn N prior to the CONUS. With the stalled fronts, the best chance for development may end up being along one of these in the Gulf. Hard to say though.
Quoting 914. hurricanes2018:

I live in he northeast I see few big strong cold fronts coming south end of this week and next week to maybe going down to upper 40s at night
Dont argue with the so called expert.
Easy to see why 94L and other Twave behind will have issues.
Quoting 916. StormJunkie:



From what I can tell, the ridge has a very thin nose that extends towards the Bahamas. Despite the "humping the ridge" urban legend, seems the pattern right now would favor weak and southern systems continuing to head through the Carib while stronger systems would pull N, and with the help of the troughing, erode the nose of the ridge enough to turn N prior to the CONUS. With the stalled fronts, the best chance for development may end up being along one of these in the Gulf. Hard to say though.


That doesn't seem to dissimilar to what I'm thinking anyway. Best analog for this year seems to be 2002, which also featured a strong mid-level ridge over the eastern US. Although ridging is favorable for US landfalls, teleconnection patterns demand that a trough exist downstream, suggesting likely recurvature of anything coming from the east.

This was the case even in 2005. See also: Maria, Nate, Ophelia, and Philippe.
Quoting 913. KoritheMan:



Just to clarify, there will likely be another trough (which actually appears to be developing now), but I expected this anyway.

I'm talking about after. That trough is forecast to depart in about 6 or 7 days.


After that is really getting too far out to say with much certainty. Hard to see the pattern breaking with what we have seen so far. Possible, but would not be my guess at this point. Even with this set up though, timing of each wave or system that does manage to develop in these not so great condition will be the real determining factor. Not impossible for something to sneak through at just the right time. I just don't see it as real likely.
It is getting to be that time of year!

Although there have been recent updated forecasts, predictions, and downcasting of Atlantic storm formation ... still thinking that there will be some more action for the 2014 hurricane season, even if it is below normal. The 1995-2014 Atlantic hurricane seasons were generally way above the normal, as far as number of named storms ....

Be on the lookout for any system that develops this season, and does not get picked up by a trough, and swings more westward, toward the USA. Remember that some of the worst hurricane strikes hit during years of slower activity. We might get something form that is more "home-grown" right in our own backyard, like another Arthur (2014), or worse than that ..... another hurricane similar to Alicia (1983).

Some of the slower and/or El Nino years have produced some of the biggest USA landfalls:

1960, 1965, 1967, 1970, 1974, 1975, 1979, 1983, 1991, 1992! The Gulf Coast and Florida were slammed.

We will be vary luckey if we make it two 5 names storms I think it will be hard even doing that
Granted there is really no support that 94 will develop; interesting to see that the models are actually trending N. 12z BAM suite.

Quoting 920. StormJunkie:



After that is really getting too far out to say with much certainty. Hard to see the pattern breaking with what we have seen so far. Possible, but would not be my guess at this point. Even with this set up though, timing of each wave or system that does manage to develop in these not so great condition will be the real determining factor. Not impossible for something to sneak through at just the right time. I just don't see it as real likely.


I don't completely agree, especially not when the GFS/GFS ensembles AND the ECMWF have been consistent with this for literally about two weeks now. It's entirely possible to glean hints and possible expectations for the synoptic pattern even two weeks out. It's literally how any knowledgeable meteorologist and/or amateur meteorologist is able to identify and pinpoint periods where tropical cyclogenesis is more likely based on favorable synoptic dynamics identified in the models.

They're likely a tad overzealous to retard the baroclinically-favored east coast trough, as is often the case (in ANY year), but when even the ensembles are on board, something's likely to be amiss.

Trough is also far less relevant during El Nino years, where we tend to get little in the way of deep tropics cyclogenesis anyway.
You are all wrong. Even though the convection is far removed from the center which is to the NE, it is maintaining a very good spin to it. The moisture field should be able to hold it together for a few more days. Development was not expected immediately. The shear in the area is still a little high, as had been mentioned in report. However, the shear is expected to lessen in a day or two.

It seems to be isolating iteself from the dry air, and as correctly mentioned by others here this morning, the heavy convection is not 94L.





The ridge seems to be in place, with the exception of some troughiness off the US coast in a few days, which should keep 94L on a west or wnw course for at least the next few days. There is very good possibilty it could be a depression by midweek.








As SLU and a few other pointed out this morning, the cluster is not the center of 94L but moisture field to the SW of the last center fix.




Quoting 926. Grothar:

As SLU and a few other pointed out this morning, the cluster is not the center of 94L but moisture field to the SW of the last center fix.



As confirmed by microwave...Even though it is a hot mess express ATM.



928. JRRP



Now all the models are not bullish on developing a monster, but they do feel 94L may have potential down the road.

Broadly centered between 10 and 12N?
Dry air/SAL- if (big if) 94L or the main blob just WEst develops, (Big if).

I have read papers (Derek Ortt, IIRC, wrote one) that decent sized storms surrounded by dry air do ok, the dry air pulled in at low levels takes a while to reach the center and is modified on the way in.

If shear isn't pushing the dry air straight into the circulation. Or, if (big if, 94L/western blob develops), SAL won't be that big a hindrance unless there is enough shear to push the dry air in.

Shear is currently from the East, drier air/SAL is West and Northwest, or dry air is not being pushed directly into 94L at the moment.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
With all of these strong cold fronts coming south I suspect that killing frost and freezes are looming across the Midwest & NE US come September as temps are already getting quite cool in areas in the dead of summer.


Yup, the downward slide in the Midwest typically begins in September.



Quoting 934. Gearsts:


ensembles more excited then operational runs of all the models.
I wonder why do downcasters have blogs when they typically don't want anything to get going hmmmmm
Quoting 905. hurricanes2018:


big ? maybe a new low will be in them t.storms soon..
fish storm
Center of 94L is centered around 9N: 30-32W, within the convection, it is displaced to the southwest by northeasterly shear, but the center is now within the eastern part of the convection, latest satellite loops show that the center of 94L has relocated and is no longer in the dry air near the CV Islands.
Quoting 937. hurricanes2018:

fish storm
WHY? And is still a tropical wave.
940. JRRP
Quoting 935. wunderweatherman123:

ensembles more excited then operational runs of all the models.
Next image almost all members drop it.
942. MahFL
Quoting 901. StormTrackerScott:
...in the dead of summer...


It's the height of Summer and the dead of Winter, lol.
Quoting 940. JRRP:


Will take time to get anything going.


maybe new center in the t.storms! who knows!!
invest 94L wll die out soon I see notting happern to it dry air will kill the storm off
Quoting 941. Gearsts:

Next image almost all members drop it.
well that's unfortunate :(
I'd rather watch into the storm than sharknado 2 because into the storm is far more serious than sharknado 2 it actually shows you the power of a monster tornado
950. MahFL
Quoting 949. LargoFl:




I pick the AP03 track.
Just a comment, just my own personal opinion here ok..but...there are ALOT of people who read this blog but dont post..and by some on here saying its dead or will die....gives those people the impression there's no need to watch and quite possibly Not prepare for a possibly storm.....just we need to be very cautious in how we say things on here ok...94L is NOT dead and still moving across the atlantic................
951. LargoFl well said Largo
Quoting 951. LargoFl:

Just a comment, just my own personal opinion here ok..but...there are ALOT of people who read this blog but dont post..and by some on here saying its dead or will die....gives those people the impression there's no need to watch and quite possibly Not prepare for a possibly storm.....just we need to be very cautious in how we say things on here ok...94L is NOT dead and still moving across the atlantic................
Everyone should always follow the NHC for official information.
954. MahFL
Can you imagine the HYPE when a Cat 3 eventually does make landfall on the US coastline.....
Quoting 949. LargoFl:


That would be a Georges like track. Of course it is too far out, but something to keep an eye on in regards to trends.
Quoting 951. LargoFl:

Just a comment, just my own personal opinion here ok..but...there are ALOT of people who read this blog but dont post..and by some on here saying its dead or will die....gives those people the impression there's no need to watch and quite possibly Not prepare for a possibly storm.....just we need to be very cautious in how we say things on here ok...94L is NOT dead and still moving across the atlantic................


As I said the other day, there are significantly more people here that don't know what they're talking about than those who do.
this time of yr i try to keep the fuel in the car full. good luck everyone this cv season. dont forget when you look at 94 models there should be another one about a wk after that. will it follow 94?
Quoting 955. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That would be a Georges like track. Of course it is too far out, but something to keep an eye on in regards to trends.
unfortunately, the ensembles aren't as excited as they were yesterday
Well, 94L and the wave over the Lesser Antilles has packed a good punch into the dry air so far:





Hopefully they'll continue to get rid of the dry air. Also it's a good sign that 94L has been able to get rid of so much, whilst still managing to maintain some really good convection (albeit a bit far from the center - but I assume that it'll be humecting the environment ahead of it, allowing it to create itself a nice moisture blanket for the future).
Onshore flow being generous along the West Coast of FL. this morning.

Quoting 955. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That would be a Georges like track. Of course it is too far out, but something to keep an eye on in regards to trends.
yeah yesterday there was possibly a mexico strike now florida..we have alot of days to watch this one.



watch out invest 94L THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO EAT YOU FOR LUNCH MY FRIEND
Quoting 962. hurricanes2018:




watch out invest 94L THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO EAT YOU FOR LUNCH MY FRIEND
when does school start again?
965. silas

Quoting LargoFl:
Just a comment, just my own personal opinion here ok..but...there are ALOT of people who read this blog but dont post..and by some on here saying its dead or will die....gives those people the impression there's no need to watch and quite possibly Not prepare for a possibly storm.....just we need to be very cautious in how we say things on here ok...94L is NOT dead and still moving across the atlantic................
I'm certain that there ARE a lot of people who come here that don't comment. I know that I'm on here several times a day most days but sometimes I'll go weeks without commenting. But that doesn't mean that others and I want to come here and read doomcasting about 94L becoming some dangerous hurricane. There's absolutely no value in hyping 94L right now. It's not even close to being a TD yet and it still has a loooong way to go before it nears land. Not saying we should downplay it, it could be a long term threat, but right now people need to relax...
Quoting 960. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Onshore flow being generous along the West Coast of FL. this morning.




Models expected it to be north of Tampa Bay, but like yesterday, they are wrong in that there is convergence across Tampa Bay as well. The models had the showers and thunderstorms north of Tampa Bay yesterday, we ended up getting some good activity yesterday. The same is happening today as well.

The funny thing is, the atmosphere is not more moist the last couple days than earlier this week. Its the same air mass, the difference is that there is more low level convergence and forcing mechanism to lift the moist air. Its still not ideal. If we had even weak low pressure present, we'd be getting soaked given the high moisture and warm water. Its just hard to get rain over water without low pressure present. Thankfully we are getting some low level convergence.
well IF it can remain intact till it gets to the Islands....doesnt have to build up right now...........
Quoting 962. hurricanes2018:




watch out invest 94L THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO EAT YOU FOR LUNCH MY FRIEND
Maybe if we keep spamming the atlantic loop 94L will develop ;) It work for Bertha.
Low tech BAM models scream fish, the Florida hurricane model GEFS mean isn't quite as fishy. SHIPS shows Easterly shear easing up in two days, just as mid level RH tanks.

Even if the blob isn't technically 94L, I'd think persistent thunderstorms might do that whole latent heat of condensation/building a warm core and lowering surface pressures better than the convectionless official 94L, and if I were King of NHC, I'd reposition 94L to match the most apparent spin in the blob.

Two nice blobs to watch, even if models aren't encouraging...

The Doc should be on in a few minutes, so I won't post anything important.
Quoting 962. hurricanes2018:




watch out invest 94L THE DRY AIR IS GOING TO EAT YOU FOR LUNCH MY FRIEND
starting to look like a fish storm
Quoting 966. Jedkins01:



Models expected it to be north of Tampa Bay, but like yesterday, they are wrong in that there is convergence across Tampa Bay as well. The models had the showers and thunderstorms north of Tampa Bay yesterday, we ended up getting some good activity yesterday. The same is happening today as well.

The funny thing is, the atmosphere is not more moist the last couple days than earlier this week. Its the same air mass, the difference is that there is more low level convergence and forcing mechanism to lift the moist air. Its still not ideal. If we had even weak low pressure present, we'd be getting soaked given the high moisture and warm water. Its just hard to get rain over water without low pressure present. Thankfully we are getting some low level convergence.
So when we do have the onshore flow it all depends on the convergence, if that is not present then the onshore flow tends to push everything inland, leaving the coastal areas dry. Also, will it be like this the rest of the day or is this the morning coastal showers and afternoon inland thunderstorms set-up?
Quick check of CIMSS, Caribbean blob is light on vorticity at all levels, not good, but shear is light, even a hint of an anticyclone over the top, and low level convergence and upper divergence couplet.

Lack of pre-existing spin won't help, however. Hint at 700 mb level, but just a hint.

But I like colorful blobs.

Quoting LargoFl:
when does school start again?
Not soon enough...
Quoting EdMahmoud:
Quick check of CIMSS, Caribbean blob is light on vorticity at all levels, not good, but shear is light, even a hint of an anticyclone over the top, and low level convergence and upper divergence couplet.

Lack of pre-existing spin won't help, however. Hint at 700 mb level, but just a hint.

But I like colorful blobs.

Yes. You and Gro with that rainbow.
Balancing lack of spectral model support versus decent satellite, I remain glass 3/16ths optimistic on 94L becoming at least a TD.
Quoting 975. sar2401:

Yes. You and Gro with that rainbow.


Psychedelic.
Quoting 974. sar2401:

Not soon enough...
Haha just got out of a 2.5 hour exam. I come here to get away from that.


goodbye invest 94L
Quoting 973. EdMahmoud:

Quick check of CIMSS, Caribbean blob is light on vorticity at all levels, not good, but shear is light, even a hint of an anticyclone over the top, and low level convergence and upper divergence couplet.

Lack of pre-existing spin won't help, however. Hint at 700 mb level, but just a hint.

But I like colorful blobs.




It's not likely, but there's a nonzero chance that the TUTT could sustain convection long enough to generate a surface low underneath that mess.
Quoting 970. Grothar:

The Doc should be on in a few minutes, so I won't post anything important.


I was surprised to not see a new blog, usually there's one right as I wake up.
Quoting LargoFl:
Just a comment, just my own personal opinion here ok..but...there are ALOT of people who read this blog but dont post..and by some on here saying its dead or will die....gives those people the impression there's no need to watch and quite possibly Not prepare for a possibly storm.....just we need to be very cautious in how we say things on here ok...94L is NOT dead and still moving across the atlantic................
Largo, how many people in the world do you think know what an "invest" is? My guess is that most of them are here. We're called weather nerds. As far as the general public is concerned, nothing is going on right now. This is all the usual juvenile back and forth that most of us pay no attention to. Now, once we have a tropical storm, we need to be careful of what we write and how we write it since there will be many members of the general public reading. Right now, it's all fortune telling.
Quoting 981. Astrometeor:



I was surprised to not see a new blog, usually there's one right as I wake up.


Why are you getting up so late?
Quoting hurricanehunter5753:
Haha just got out of a 2.5 hour exam. I come here to get away from that.
I take it you like food fights in the cafeteria then. :-)
After 24hrs BAMD is in the lead for which model is doing best with 94L, with 24.3nm of error. Overall the models aren't doing all that well so far on this disturbance.


Ran across this new movie out "Arctic Emergency: Scientists Speak". Jeff Masters is featured pretty heavily in it.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I even like rainbow bread.





99E

Pass the Tabasco please'...

Dats a Jerry Garcia Loaf Gro.

Your off by 4 decades.

: P
990. JRRP
Eric Webb ‏@webberweather 10 min
@hurrtrackerapp SAL is not the problem, it's a quintessential part to AEJ, but the CCKW & MJO forcing has decoupled