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African tropical wave 99L slowly organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:26 PM GMT on July 31, 2012

A tropical wave (Invest 99L) near 9°N 41°W, halfway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it moves westward at 10 - 15 mph. Visible satellite loops show that the disturbance now has a moderate amount of poorly-organized heavy thunderstorms that continue to slowly increase in intensity and areal coverage. There is no surface circulation, but some counter-clockwise rotation of the large-scale cloud pattern is evident. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment. The latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies to the north of 99L and is currently not affecting the storm. WInd shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light through Friday, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. However, a band of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with the subtropical jet stream lies just to the north of 99L, and it would not be a surprise to see 99L experience some higher shear conditions than are currently forecast. The farther north 99L gets, the higher the shear it will experience, and the SHIPS model is predicting shear in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for Saturday - Sunday, as the storm works its way to 15°N. The disturbance is at 9°N, which is close enough to the Equator that the storm will have some difficultly getting spinning. Most of the models are showing some slow development of 99L. There are some major differences in the predicted forward speed of 99L, with the ECMWF and UKMET models predicting the storm will reach the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the GFS predicting a later arrival, on Saturday. At 8 am Tuesday, NHC gave 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. I expect the storm will begin having trouble with tendrils of dry air reaching down from the north at times this week, but give 99L a 50% chance of eventually developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto sometime in the next ten days. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday morning. The long-range fate of 99L next week is uncertain. A track west to west-northwest through the Caribbean, or to the northwest towards the U.S. East Coast are both possible. The storm is less likely to survive if it heads northwest towards the U.S.

Extreme heat in the Central U.S.
The withering heat in America's heartland continued on Monday, with high temperatures of 112° recorded in Winfield, Kansas and Searcy, Arkansas. Little Rock, Arkansas hit 111°, their 3rd hottest temperature ever record, behind the all time record of 114° set just last year on August 3, and the 112° reading of 7/31/1986. Wichita and Coffeyville in Kansas both hit 111° Monday, and in Oklahoma, Enid, Tulsa Jones Airport, and Chandler all topped out at 111°. Carr Creek, Missouri hit 110°, the hottest temperature measured in the state so far this year. Highs temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday in this region could reach 110° again, as the most extreme heat this week will stay focused over Oklahoma and surrounding states.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good Morning Friends, Back for the season, amateur noob that I be, I only come on during season. Thanks in advance everyone, for all the neat info I osmose during the season. Lots of folks with lots of cool info. Amateur point of view.... The Caribbean will be the graveyard for 99L.
Quoting stoormfury:
WV can give an indication of a centre if the system is vertically stacked. i know the micro wave pass is an indicator and no way i was saying that wv loops are used to pinpoint ant centre

ok cause you made it soud that way
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Twas the Guru
I also predicted it would be a TD today by 4:45pm (from a survey)...am I an idiot too? LOL
Quoting stoormfury:
As if the threat of pre ernesto is not enough both GFS and the ECMWF has another strong disturbance heading for the island chain in 9 days time frame


Well, this is the time for it...starting August things usually do ramp up around middle/ end August. Bit early though, Ivan was end of August.

We may have a bit of an active season.

2006. SLU
The TWO should be lifted to code RED this morning by all means.
Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
Good Morning Friends, Back for the season, amateur noob that I be, I only come on during season. Thanks in advance everyone, for all the neat info I osmose during the season. Lots of folks with lots of cool info. Amateur point of view.... The Caribbean will be the graveyard for 99L.

the caribbean is not the graveyard
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


just to tell you W can have N movements too pluss steering shows W till it enter the caribbean then a W-WNW track thereafter that shoud take it to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
major.hurricane.downstream
Quoting barbados246:
You are very correct and its sad to say this but when we really do have a serious disaster thatis when we are going to start paying more attention.where on the island are you?


Near Wildey.
Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
Good Morning Friends, Back for the season, amateur noob that I be, I only come on during season. Thanks in advance everyone, for all the neat info I osmose during the season. Lots of folks with lots of cool info. Amateur point of view.... The Caribbean will be the graveyard for 99L.
gilbert.wasnt..lowest.barometer.reading.ever.reco rded.se.domincan.republic
2012. WxLogic
Good Morning
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Very little change in 99L last night, just slowly getting itself together... Probably 50 or 60% at 8AM, maybe a TD tomorrow morning:



CMC still insisting on a northward track but at this point its a huge outlier as that is highly unlikely:



BTW I don't think I saw this posted on the blog last night; End of the 0z GFS run:



A bunch of ensemble members have shown this so its a real possibility... Almost certainly a fish storm if it develops as far east as the GFS shows.


CMC and the Euro are right on top of each other in send a storm to FL. It looks as if FL may a 3rd storm to region so far this hurricane season. Storm could be here in 7 to 8 days.

CMC and to a degree the Euro say a TS or hurricane hits the east coast of FL in 8 days.

Quoting SLU:
The TWO should be lifted to code RED this morning by all means.


should be posted within 10-15 mins from now

Quoting islander101010:
major.hurricane.maybe

possibly the intensity forecast is now agreeing with me on it becoming a Cat 2 hurricane
bajelayman 2 is this weekend crop over festival?
Quoting StormTracker2K:


CMC and the Euro are right on top of each other in send a storm to FL. It looks as if FL may a 3rd storm to region so far this hurricane season. Storm could be here in 7 to 8 days.

CMC and to a degree the Euro say a TS or hurricane hits the east coast of FL in 8 days.


the CMC is the outlier
Good Morning , Is the center of 99L around 11N/47W?
Quoting bajelayman2:


Near Wildey.
ok im in Ch Ch
Quoting SLU:


It will most likely pass south of PR but the models has shifted a bit north this morning so PR could get some more weather from it if this happens.


Yes,that 00z Euro was very interesting as it shifted north and tracks it closer to PR.
2021. WxLogic
I would keep 99L at 50% until it clears 50W. If it's successful at completely detaching from the ITCZ, sustaining convection, and fighting some shear around 50W then I would bump it up to 70%.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

the CMC is the outlier


So you are saying the Euro is as well then right? Both have FL landfall in 8 to 9 days.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

nah it at 10.1N 45.8W moving W



It totally looked like it popped a bit north to me too when I first looked this morning.


The westPac typhoons look pretty awesome in unison over there. The inland area where they're both looking to end up over is going to have some bad problems. Hope they get caught up in a front and move along quickly
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Morning , Is the center of 99L around 11N/47W?

10.2N 46.0W
Quoting stoormfury:
bajelayman 2 is this weekend crop over festival?


Yes. Foreday Morning (a casual street jam early morning in the dark) is Saturday. Other events from Friday night and then Grand Kadooment next week early.

Wet, wet, wet!?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Looks like an uptick in movement there?
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:



It totally looked like it popped a bit north to me too when I first looked this morning.


The westPac typhoons look pretty awesome in unison over there. The inland area where they're both looking to end up over is going to have some bad problems. Hope they get caught up in a front and move along quickly

yeah I know its convection increasing in that area because shear is falling
time people should start to hit F5 on NHC
Going now, c you guys later, thanks!!
2004 caribbeantracker01: It would be TD.3
If not, someone tell me if all the systems were topical depressions when they formed?


TropicalDepressions are numbered in keeping with the TropicalCyclone number,
and not by how many TDs there were before the latest one appears.
The next Atlantic TropicalCyclone will be AL05.
So if 99L becomes a TD, it'll be called TropicalDepressionFive, or TD.5 for short.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
time people should start to hit F5 on NHC

No, that's okay. I'll just wait patiently for those outlooks to be posted en masse right here.

Thanks, Kid.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


So you are saying the Euro is as well then right? Both have FL landfall in 8 to 9 days.

Euro has been very consistent, no?
2035. SLU
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes,that 00z Euro was very interesting as it shifted north and tracks it closer to PR.


What a difference a night makes.
2036. luigi18
Quoting SLU:


It will most likely pass south of PR but the models has shifted a bit north this morning so PR could get some more weather from it if this happens.


Thanks!
Here is this mornings discussion by Crown Weather.

Link
Quoting aspectre:
2004 caribbeantracker01: It would be TD.3
If not, someone tell me if all the systems were topical depressions when they formed?


TropicalDepressions are numbered in keeping with the TropicalCyclone number,
and not by how many TDs there were before the latest one appears.
The next Atlantic TropicalCyclone will be AL05: so if 99L becomes a TD, it'll be called TropicalDepressionFive
or TD.5 for short

thank you about time someone explained it to carib tracker

Quoting Pocamocca:

No, that's okay. I'll just here for those outlooks to be posted en masse right here.

Thanks, Kid.

ok by the way I am not a kid so don't call me kid
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

thank you about time someone explained it to carib tracker


ok by the way I am not a kid so don't call me kid

Still calling for that cat 4 by the islands....

LOL
Quoting Pocamocca:

Euro has been very consistent, no?


It had a weak system in the Gulf yesterday and today it's over FL. Really the only consistant model has been the CMC or GGEM model.
2041. luigi18
Quoting SLU:


What a difference a night makes.


wow that's is no good for PR !
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It had a weak system in the Gulf yesterday and today it's over FL. Really the only consistant model has been the CMC or GGEM model.

Thanks, man. That's the one I was thinking of then--the CMC. Interesting the Euro shoots 99L up that far north though on the latest run.
Quoting Pocamocca:

Still calling for that cat 4 by the islands....

LOL

no I'm not and wasn't calling one neither
Invest 99L Continues To Become More Organized, Likely To Develop Into Tropical Storm Ernesto & Will Affect Barbados & The Lesser Antilles On Friday; Track & Intensity After That Remains In Question
Wednesday, August 1, 2012 5:42 am
by Rob Lightbown

Invest 99L, which is located a little over 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands has become better organized over the past 24 hours. Overnight and early morning satellite loops show deeper convection firing near the low pressure system. Additionally, this deeper convection has caused 99L to become better organized just in the last few hours. Also, environmental conditions appear to be favorable and remain favorable for this system to continue organizing and developing. I still think that Invest 99L will become a tropical depression as early as late today or early Thursday and then Tropical Storm Ernesto by late Thursday or early Friday.

The consensus track guidance as well as the latest NAM and GFS model guidance forecasts that 99L will remain on a slightly north of due west track over the next several days and pass very near or just south of Barbados during the day Friday and then across the Windward Islands towards later Friday. From there, the consensus track guidance and the GFS model (even though it really doesn’t develop it) keeps 99L on a track that takes it across the southern Caribbean this weekend.

The latest European model guidance has shifted significantly northward and forecasts 99L to track across the islands of Martinique and Dominica on Friday and then pass just south of Puerto Rico as a weakening system that opens up to a tropical wave by Saturday. The European model then forecasts 99L to track across the Bahamas from Sunday to Tuesday as a tropical disturbance. One item to point out in the European model guidance is that it forecasts another organizing tropical disturbance to begin approaching the Lesser Antilles during the weekend of August 11th and 12th.

So, here are my thoughts: I do think that it is likely that Invest 99L will become a tropical depression by late today or more likely during Thursday and then be upgraded from there to Tropical Storm Ernesto by Friday. As for a track, based on the track consensus guidance and the general motion of 99L, I think that a track either over or just north of Barbados seems quite possible during the day Friday as a 40 to 45 mph tropical storm. From there, I think we will see 99L track near the island of St. Lucia by late Friday as a 45 mph tropical storm. Now, it should be pointed out that this is an early “guess” based on all of the available data and this track idea can and likely will change.

Beyond the Lesser Antilles, I think that Invest 99L will track across the Caribbean and may not intensify at all due to less than favorable environmental conditions in the Caribbean.

All interests in the Lesser Antilles, especially those of you in Barbados and from the islands of Dominica southward to Grenada should be ready for tropical storm conditions on Friday with wind gusts to 50+ mph, heavy rainfall and rough seas. Do not wait for Invest 99L to be named to prepare for it.

I am monitoring Invest 99L closely and I will keep you all updated on the latest.

2046. SLU
Quoting luigi18:


wow that's is no good for PR !


It's only a matter of which islands will get hit. No chance of this missing us.
Quoting Pocamocca:

Thanks, man. That's the one I was thinking of then--the CMC. Interesting the Euro shoots 99L up that far north though on the latest run.


It could go anywhere right now so that is why the next 2 to 3 days are so key because if 99L strengthens more quickly then we will see a more northern track across the northern Caribbean vs. the southern track of the GFS. either one could play out at this point.
Quoting RidingTheStormOut:
Good Morning Friends, Back for the season, amateur noob that I be, I only come on during season. Thanks in advance everyone, for all the neat info I osmose during the season. Lots of folks with lots of cool info. Amateur point of view.... The Caribbean will be the graveyard for 99L.


about 4 storms late...lol
:)
2049. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone!!

2050. ryang
60%
right red 60%
2052. ryang
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011152
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Good morning, y'all.
60%
Red alert.
2057. SLU
RED ALERT! RED ALERT!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

800 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM
.




Quoting StormTracker2K:


It could go anywhere right now so that is why the next 2 to 3 days are so key because if 99L strengthens more quickly then we will see a more northern track across the northern Caribbean vs. the southern track of the GFS. either one could play out at this point.

Yep, exactly.
2061. ncstorm
so what we got..a shift back to the NW?
700MB


500MB


200MB

2063. WxLogic
Hmm... 60% already. Was expecting 60% and above by tonight.
butterfly.island.is.a.magnet
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Red alert.
..but your icon shows "yellow" alert? Did you issue a red alert when infact the conditions did not exist? How do you explain that one?
The GFS looked kinda interesting at the 174 hr frame, can't load frames after that. Anyone now what it does with storm after that
cv.system.could.be.a.bad.girl...
2069. pottery
Quoting SLU:
RED ALERT! RED ALERT!

Well, this looks like fun.... !

Not sure I want any fun though...

Good Morning all.
Pileus clouds, created by a layer of ice crystals and thunderstorms, turn heads yesterday
2071. SLU
.ATLC LOW PRES AT 10N44W 1009 MB MOVING W AT 17 KT. WITHIN 240
NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER NEAR NUMEROUS TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
11N51W 1009 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
12N58W 1008 MB. WITHIN 270 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 15 FT NE SEMICIRCLE AND TO 10 FT SW
SEMICIRCLE.
2072. Grothar
As you can see from this, the system has moved quite a bit more WNW than a due west course since its earlier position.

2073. Chiggy


06Z GFS at 174hrs - seems reasonable. This run doesn't dissipate the system - rather slowly intensifies it!
2074. SLU
Quoting pottery:

Well, this looks like fun.... !

Not sure I want any fun though...

Good Morning all.


morning pottery

rain on the horizon!
Still in agreement with HWFI:

Big Red:

99L
2077. pottery
Quoting SLU:
.ATLC LOW PRES AT 10N44W 1009 MB MOVING W AT 17 KT. WITHIN 240
NM NE SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS HIGHER NEAR NUMEROUS TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
11N51W 1009 MB. WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
12N58W 1008 MB.
WITHIN 270 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES
WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 15 FT NE SEMICIRCLE AND TO 10 FT SW
SEMICIRCLE.


Hmmmmmmm.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Pileus clouds, created by a layer of ice crystals and thunderstorms, turn heads yesterday

Nice!
2079. SLU
CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC W OF 55W...
HEALTHY TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W PRODUCE FRESH E BREEZE WITHIN
240 NM OF AXIS. WAVE REACH WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI BEFORE
MOVING W OF AREA SAT. SECOND AND STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...
CURRENTLY NEAR 10N44W MOVE W THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AND REACH
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI AND FAR E CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE SAT
AND SUN. WIND AND SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THEN
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
2080. Chiggy


00Z HWRF at 126 hrs
Quoting Neapolitan:
Big Red:

99L
actually, its a satellite pic...I see no red...lol
2082. Grothar
!!!
Quoting pottery:

Well, this looks like fun.... !

Not sure I want any fun though...

Good Morning all.
There you are.Hey Pottery and good morning to you WU.
It's August!!


2086. Grothar
This looks like a good one.

2087. Guysgal
10% of WORLD'S population without power! Link
10N now!!!!:)
2089. pottery
Quoting washingtonian115:
There you are.Hey Pottery and good morning to you WU.

'Morning to you.
This one looks a little "Ominizing" down the road, I think.
2090. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
There you are.Hey Pottery and good morning to you WU.


Hey Wash!
2091. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Pileus clouds, created by a layer of ice crystals and thunderstorms, turn heads yesterday
..what an amazing sight to see that, nice one
2092. pottery
Quoting Grothar:
This looks like a good one.


Lucky you !
So to PASCH conditions are favorable but to STEWART they are only marginal
2094. ncstorm
I cant get frames on Allan's site but here is the NCEP Model guidance for the 06z GFS

.
It going WNW???
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
So to PASCH conditions are favorable but to STEWART they are only marginal

Stewart said at least marginally conducive.
Quoting pottery:

Well, this looks like fun.... !

Not sure I want any fun though...

Good Morning all.
Good morning Pottery whats life without a 'lil" fun
2098. LargoFl
If you ever needed any more proof that the Caribbean is not unfavorable:

2100. pottery
Quoting barbados246:
Good morning Pottery whats life without a 'lil" fun

True!
Going to be a wet party for you guys this weekend.
Have fun though !
Wow Cat 2!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you ever needed any more proof that the Caribbean is not unfavorable:

2102. Chiggy
Quoting ncstorm:
I cant get frames on Allan's site but here is the NCEP Model guidance for the 06z GFS

192 hours


204 hours






These are all two days old - 07/30.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you ever needed any more proof that the Caribbean is not unfavorable:

Oh... that's gonna be fun.
2104. LargoFl
Hey Pottery and Gro.I'm still confused.Some people say if it goes north of the islands it will be killed or organize.If it goes into the caribbean it will be killed or organized.Lol XD.Hope your prepared Pottery.
Quoting pottery:

True!
Going to be a wet party for you guys this weekend.
Have fun though !
Should be more fun in the rain. Hope you did not have any plans for weekend?
2108. ncstorm
Quoting Chiggy:


These are all two days old - 07/30.


Ahh..thanks..didnt refresh
2109. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you ever needed any more proof that the Caribbean is not unfavorable:

Oh well that's just great....Well eh you Gulf coast residents watching this to?.
2111. LargoFl
.........................................still a long ways off and doesnt look all that impressive and remember it is NOT..a tropical storm YET..but we keep watching it...we shall see maybe tomorrow a storm developed..if not then ..hmmm maybe just a weak tropical storm?
2112. Grothar
Quoting pottery:


Hmmmmmmm.


I always enjoy your analyses of these systems.
2065 islander101010: butterfly island is a magnet

Less Guadeloupe being a magnet and more Barbados being a springboard.
When the leading fringes of a TropicalCyclone hits Barbados -- if they are already north enough -- they compress into a denser mass, leading to a sort of backpressure toward the TC.
And the TC in turn climbs that fixed-to-Barbados backpressure/mass counterclockwise-northward in a pseudo-Fujiwhara manner.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you ever needed any more proof that the Caribbean is not unfavorable:


dude do you know how long I have been saying that
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011157
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH
OF JULY. BASED ON A 30-YEAR AVERAGE FROM 1981 TO 2010...ABOUT ONE
NAMED STORM FORMS IN THE BASIN IN JULY. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT
UNUSUAL TO HAVE NO TROPICAL STORMS DEVELOP DURING JULY.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS YEAR IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE 1981-2010
AVERAGE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2012ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
------------------------------------------------- --
TS ALBERTO 19-22 MAY 60
TS BERYL 26-30 MAY 70
H CHRIS 19-22 JUN 75
TS DEBBY 23-27 JUN 60
------------------------------------------------- --

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT
2116. LargoFl
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh well that's just great....Well eh you Gulf coast residents watching this to?.
..yes watching it but thats about it..just watching, I doubt this is OUR storm in the gulf, the Islands really need to watch it though
2117. Chiggy
Quoting Chiggy:


These are all two days old - 07/30.


The latest run I can find on the 06Z GFS is at 174hrs. Which shows a TS approaching channel between Cuba and Yucatan!


2118. pottery
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey Pottery and Gro.I'm still confused.Some people say if it goes north of the islands it will be killed or organize.If it goes into the caribbean it will be killed or organized.Lol XD.Hope your prepared Pottery.

Yep.
It's good to know that things are so clear......

And have no fear, I am well prepared for everything except wind and rain.
We don't do wind too well here.
And rain is fine once it's not heavy.
In fact, come to think of it, it would be nice if this #99 just went away right now.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

dude do you know how long I have been saying that

You say it all the time, that's nothing new. ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you ever needed any more proof that the Caribbean is not unfavorable:

hey cody. now im noticing something different on the model runs. instead of weakining 99L once it enters the carribean, it instead should maintain itself and once it gets west of jamaica should start to stregthen. anywhere from northern mexico to the florida panhandle should watch out
Good Morning From America's Left Coast at 5:25 PDT
Quoting LargoFl:
..yes watching it but thats about it..just watching, I doubt this is OUR storm in the gulf, the Islands really need to watch it though
Well even if it doesn't come you all's way just take this as a sign to make sure you have all your preparations.
2123. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


I always enjoy your analyses of these systems.

Thanks.
I always strive to be concise and pertinent.
2124. CJ5
99L looks pretty health and like I mentioned yesterday, if it stays on a southern track it will have a better chance to develop. It appears most models are keeping it in that direction. There is also another nice storm about to exit Africa. Could be a busy few months now.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It going WNW???

CMC has 99L going WNW
It going WNW???

2127. LargoFl
...........unless it changes course big time..I think this path is logical and maybe really close to the path it WILL take
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh well that's just great....Well eh you Gulf coast residents watching this to?.

yes Cat 2 at 75W just imagin what it would be at 80W with that screeming high TCHP
Good Morning. Two comments on 99L. Totally surprised to see such an early CV storm develop this year. Secondly, as you can see on the 250mb chart posted below, the Tutt cells in the way of 99L have regressed out of the way and it has clear sailing into the Caribbean or on the Northern track towards PR. With this favorable enviornment, expect the storm to stengthen into a TS or hurricane in the next 72 hours and take the more Northernly route towards PR..........The model guidance should be shifting in this general direction over the next two days once a depression/storm is initialized in the models.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes Cat 2 at 75W just imagin what it would be at 80W with that screeming high TCHP

Maybe cat 4!! You never know!!!!

sarcasm flag: ON
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you ever needed any more proof that the Caribbean is not unfavorable:



Interesting as every model that has a stronger system is more north in line with the CMC. My bet is this system cuts across Cuba and gets into the SE Gulf near Key West come mid next week.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


CMC and the Euro are right on top of each other in send a storm to FL. It looks as if FL may a 3rd storm to region so far this hurricane season. Storm could be here in 7 to 8 days.

CMC and to a degree the Euro say a TS or hurricane hits the east coast of FL in 8 days.

over 1,000 mile range with forecasts that far out,could end up from NO to Bermuda
though the trend has been thru the fl straits.
Quoting pottery:

Yep.
It's good to know that things are so clear......

And have no fear, I am well prepared for everything except wind and rain.
We don't do wind too well here.
And rain is fine once it's not heavy.
In fact, come to think of it, it would be nice if this #99 just went away right now.
I'm predicting a moderate to strong tropical storm Pottery.i know that's not making you feel any better.Be fore conditions go down hill could you give us updates on whats happening.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you ever needed any more proof that the Caribbean is not unfavorable:



well half do die.....

I know, i am the main antagonist of this blog XD
2136. LargoFl
Quoting pottery:

Yep.
It's good to know that things are so clear......

And have no fear, I am well prepared for everything except wind and rain.
We don't do wind too well here.
And rain is fine once it's not heavy.
In fact, come to think of it, it would be nice if this #99 just went away right now.
Hey, which island are you on? I'm wondering...
2138. pottery
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm predicting a moderate to strong tropical storm Pottery.i know that's not making you feel any better.Be fore conditions go down hill could you give us updates on whats happening.

No prob.

Have to get busy for a while so I'm out.

Laters>>>>>>>>>>
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh well that's just great....Well eh you Gulf coast residents watching this to?.


That cat 2 on the CMC model is right over Melbourne,FL in 9 days not in the gulf. That could be really bad!

99L is moving W with a slight drift to the N or is moving just N of due W
2141. pottery
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Hey, which island are you on? I'm wondering...

Trinidad, 11n 61w.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If you ever needed any more proof that the Caribbean is not unfavorable:



Good Mourning WU, can you tell me exactly where is the COC is now? It has jump couple degrees N overnight and its starting to move more WNW. Which means a BIG shift North in the models.
Quoting LargoFl:
...........unless it changes course big time..I think this path is logical and maybe really close to the path it WILL take
,further north and over central or western cuba towards the eastern gom or fl,for sure
What is going on??
2145. LargoFl
2146. Grothar
2147. SLU
Almost there ...


01/1145 UTC 9.3N 45.1W T1.5/1.5 99L
01/0545 UTC 9.4N 43.9W T1.0/1.0 99L
31/2345 UTC 9.2N 43.0W T1.0/1.0 99L
31/1745 UTC 9.2N 42.1W T1.0/1.0 99L
31/1145 UTC 9.2N 40.6W T1.0/1.0 99L
31/0545 UTC 9.3N 38.5W TOO WEAK 99L
30/2345 UTC 9.0N 37.7W TOO WEAK 99L
30/1745 UTC 9.0N 37.1W TOO WEAK 99L
30/1145 UTC 8.9N 35.1W TOO WEAK 99L
I say 99L LLCOC is now located at 10.3N 46.5W
Quoting Grothar:


Notice that band to the north of the circulation about to wrap in.
Rain rain rain rain and ps rain lol
Quoting pottery:

Trinidad, 11n 61w.
Alright, thanks! Good luck!
2152. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That cat 2 on the CMC model is right over Melbourne,FL in 9 days not in the gulf. That could be really bad!

Remember error is expected to occur this far out XD.If 99L comes in weaker to the islands expect it to take a more southern path.
From the NHC it is 10N now
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Two comments on 99L. Totally surprised to see such an early CV storm develop this year. Secondly, as you can see on the 250mb chart posted below, the Tutt cells in the way of 99L have regressed out of the way and it has clear sailing into the Caribbean or on the Northern track towards PR. With this favorable enviornment, expect the storm to stenghen into a TS or hurricane in the next 72 hours and take the more Northernly route towards PR..........The model guidance should be shifting in this general direction over the next two days once a depression/storm is initialized in the models.


Agreed! the more this develop before the islands the more northerly path it could take.
Quoting Grothar:


Very nice looking, its been a while
Quoting pottery:

\


If 99L came your way, would you welcome it or pray it changes direction?
2159. LargoFl
I guess the people on the Islands should be finishing up with the supplies and kits and everything needed to ride out a storm, it looks pretty good right now, that 99l will go thru them, just dont know ..if its thru the northern islands or the southern ones..both should be finishing up with preparations, this may be the first of several storms coming thru until the pattern changes
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Agreed! the more this develop before the islands the more northerly path it could take.


Looking at a more northerly route. The Euro shifted north and now brings 99L to PR and then into the Bahamas.
Good Morning.
So why wont 99L form today?
Sarcasm Flag: On
99L is very impressive. Can understand why NHC set it at 60%. It's almost a tropical storm right now.

I love the fact that we may have a storm to track. What I hate is we might have a storm to track through the Islands. What I really hate is the possibility of a storm at my front door next weekend. Heres to hoping for a civil blog the next few days. Hoping for a harmless fish storm....
I think we will have a TD at 5pm today. 99L is really looking good right now.

2166. Grothar
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Notice that band to the north of the circulation about to wrap in.


Yes.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say 99L LLCOC is now located at 10.3N 46.5W


Thats right in the center of all the convection.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Good Morning.
So why wont 99L form today?
Sarcasm Flag: On


Lol, i think he's already there by its satellite appearance
Good morning all! Watching and listening to your chatter with interest and concern for all. I don't need a storm or anymore rain in my area - we don't have a drought anymore!..lol
2170. ncstorm
Well the crappy Nogaps is still insisting on a NW path..oh well


Hurricane Cesar track, July 24th--29th 1996
A few points to note from the CIMMS charts:

It has almost lost that western "dog leg" on the 850 vort chart. It is fully separating from the ITCZ.

Link

The Tutt cells have moved out of the way between it and the Caribbean/Greater Antilles on the 200mb chart:

Link

The system (they have a mind of their own) has taken the path of least resistence, sheer wise, below the daunting sheer to it's North and headed towards very favorable low sheer conditions over the next 48 hours at just the right speed:

Link

Translation? No significant impediments to attaining hurricane status over the next 72 hours that I can see at the moment.
2173. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You say it all the time, that's nothing new. ;)


TA, don't you think it would be a good idea to explain the "John Hope Rule" to the blog. This way it could avoid confusion about the dead zone.
I doubt 99L strengthens enough to come out of the Caribbean. It should pass through the Windward Islands around 14N and move west-northwest and be located just south of Jamaica in 5-6 days...probably as an intensifying hurricane.
Quoting ncstorm:
Well the crappy Nogaps is still insisting on a NW path..oh well


Nogaps and CMC have stuck to their guns and the now the Euro has followed suite.
Quoting hurricaneeye:


Hurricane Cesar track, July 24th--29th 1996



Please, do not take this track, dear Ernesto
2177. LargoFl
Quoting weaverwxman:
I love the fact that we may have a storm to track. What I hate is we might have a storm to track through the Islands. What I really hate is the possibility of a storm at my front door next weekend. Heres to hoping for a civil blog the next few days. Hoping for a harmless fish storm....



The AB High won't allow a fish storm.
2179. Chiggy
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looking at a more northerly route. The Euro shifted north and now brings 99L to PR and then into the Bahamas.

Though it doesn't make sense, EURO weakens it but moves it more northerly - ought to take a more southern part instead like GFS.
I find the 06Z run much more plausible.
Quoting ncstorm:
Well the crappy Nogaps is still insisting on a NW path..oh well

A broken clock is right twice a day..
2181. Grothar
Quoting mcluvincane:


Very nice looking, its been a while


Gee, thanks, But I don't remember posting a picture of myself lately :)
Quoting Bluestorm5:
99L is very impressive. Can understand why NHC set it at 60%. It's almost a tropical storm right now.


I know its should be at 70% or 80%

Quoting StormTracker2K:
I think we will have a TD at 5pm today. 99L is really looking good right now.


nah I think maybe at 11am or 2pm
Quoting ncstorm:
Well the crappy Nogaps is still insisting on a NW path..oh well


LOL!
2184. Chiggy
Quoting Chiggy:

Though it doesn't make sense, EURO weakens it but moves it more northerly - ought to take a more southern part instead like GFS.
I find the 06Z run much more plausible.


06Z GFS run I mean...
Still no change in strength according to ATCF; only the location is different:

AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 102N, 470W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


See #2211
it looks to me like a stronger storm will head further north. The Bamms models suggest it as does the CMC. The shallow Bam take it further west and the Mid and Deeper take it further north. Hence my thinking. Earlier developments further north. Looks like the models that take it further west are all keeping the storm rather weak. JMHO.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A broken clock is right twice a day..


Wasn't the Nogaps one of 3 models who showed a FL landfall with Debby? Just saying.
2188. ncstorm
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Nogaps and CMC have stuck to their guns and the now the Euro has followed suite.


the CMC faltered a little yesterday and went south..I guess peer pressure got the better of it..LOL..but I dont see this tracking south in the Caribbean..It will be either tracking over the islands or just north of the islands..bahamas and SE USA afterwards..

when the GFS ran this storm as a hurricane for the first time at that 00z run..where did it take it into? It was North of the islands and SE Florida..always go back to the first run especially with the GFS because it usually always come back to it..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I doubt 99L strengthens enough to come out of the Caribbean. It should pass through the Windward Islands around 14N and move west-northwest and be located just south of Jamaica in 5-6 days.


Actually a WNW path from there will take it over Hispaniola and Cuba.
Looks further north on satellite??
If 99L makes it into the caribbean and continues on a WNW path the U.S Gulf coast will have to keep a watchful eye on it.I'm not going to predict strength as that is a whole week from now.
2192. ncstorm
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Wasn't the Nogaps one of 3 models who showed a FL landfall with Debby? Just saying.


they wont admit it when it comes to the NOGAPs..just let it be..
2193. SLU
AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 102N, 470W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
well i think it wont weaken in the eastern carribean. i just think it wont stregnthen. big difference. i am siding with TA13 on a track south of jamaica wnw towards the yucatan channel
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say 99L LLCOC is now located at 10.3N 46.5W

yay I was almost on target

102N, 470W
I certainly dont wish a storm over hispanola. But those mountains can really disrupt a storm.
A track just North of PR would be bad for Florida; it would take it through the Hebert Box and most of us here know what that means............... :)



Loooooking Goood Lucy
2199. Grothar
2200. LargoFl
Quoting floridaboy14:
well i think it wont weaken in the eastern carribean. i just think it wont stregnthen. big difference. i am siding with TA13 on a track south of jamaica wnw towards the yucatan channel
....im with you on the southern track as well
@ncstorms No we won't!.NOGAPS is a crappy model!.
i fly from upstate ny to orlando next friday 8/10.. should i start to worry alittle bit about this ruining my flight plans? i take vacation every 10 years..worried now
Eight die in Indonesia landslides

LANDSLIDES triggered by heavy rains have killed eight people in Indonesia's eastern Maluku province, a local official says.

"Eight people were killed in three different locations in Ambon city," said Brory Tjokro, the city's search and rescue chief, adding that a further two people were missing.

"Heavy rains that poured all night caused landslides in the locations. Ambon city was also flooded," he said.

In June, three people were killed in the town when they were buried in a landslide caused by heavy rains.

Floods and landslides are common in Indonesia, which is prone to frequent bursts of heavy rain.
2204. LargoFl
Just what we need here especially north florida...more rain, we will be turning back into swamp land shortly gee...............THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
BECOME LIKELY IN THE FAR NORTH...SCATTERED FOR CENTRAL LOCATIONS...
BUT REMAIN ISOLATED IN THE FAR SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...SCATTERED DURING
THE DAYTIME AND ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$
Good morning all

99L is still in its formative stages and should have no difficulty clearing the SA coast. Entry into the Caribbean near 12 still looks like a reasonable scenario to me. Classification as a TD could come later today if the overall organization and convection does not wane during the heat of the day. The NHC will want to see some consistency in this regard I would think.

Upper level conditions near the system are not ideal with shear values of 20 to 30 knots immediately to its North which may slow the organization process some during the day. All in all though we will likely see this continue to get its act together.
2206. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
@ncstorms No we won't!.NOGAPS is a crappy model!.


LOL..now Wash, you know better..
Quoting yankeeslover:
i fly from upstate ny to orlando next friday 8/10.. should i start to worry alittle bit about this ruining my flight plans? i take vacation every 10 years..worried now

It's likely there will be a strengthening tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean at that time. Pay close attention to The National Hurricane Center when they start advisories on this system.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I think we will have a TD at 5pm today. 99L is really looking good right now.



I think the NHC is just waiting for this current blow up to persist through a little longer. It was starting to develop an anti-cyclone yesterday and judging by satellite representation it looks as if it is ventilating very well in 3 of its 4 quadrants. 99L has been steadily organizing the last 48 hours. So, at the least I'd say we will see the percentages go up by tonight, if not by tonight, then by tomorrow morning we should be looking at a Tropical Depression.

Being at 10N leaves it a place to where it is very difficult to develop westerly winds. It needs to gain a bit more in latitude, but it should do that in time. Being at 10N does make this system very difficult to turn out to sea. I wonder what the percentages of storms that form in the area of 99L are at making landfall. I bet it is high, not just for the islands, but all those beyond as well.

Quoting yankeeslover:
i fly from upstate ny to orlando next friday 8/10.. should i start to worry alittle bit about this ruining my flight plans? i take vacation every 10 years..worried now
Nah, there's no concern about this hitting Florida on 8/10, although keeping the eye on it will be a good idea. Things changes fast.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh well that's just great....Well eh you Gulf coast residents watching this to?.
We are watching!
Okay, now they've bumped the winds up 5 knots:

AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 107N, 469W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

TD status imminent...
2212. LargoFl
...rainfall totals for july
Notice how over the last 24hrs how 99L has moved WNW out of the ITCZ.

2214. ncstorm
here is the 00z CMC with visualizing colors dooming Florida





2215. GetReal



99L appears to be close to becoming a TD or TS Ernesto later today. I see there is plenty of speculation as to where this system is going.

The previous runs of the M.O.D. (model of doom) had been pretty consistant on bringing an Ivan type tracking system across the southern Caribbean, before it turned WNW towards the NW Caribbean.

The latest 1300 run of the MOD has shifted slightly northward, and Ernesto tracking west to WNW as a strong Cat 1 hurricane through the central Lesser Antilles. MOD brings Erneato towards, and possibly over Jamaica as a strong Cat 2 as it tracks WNW torwards the Caymans. Ernsto bombs as a Cat 4 in NW Caribbean.

MOD turns Ernesto NW towards the Yucatan Channel, and at the end of the run has a 920 mb hurricane sitting in the central GOM.

MOD is nearly always correct.
Quoting ncstorm:


the CMC faltered a little yesterday and went south..I guess peer pressure got the better of it..LOL..but I dont see this tracking south in the Caribbean..It will be either tracking over the islands or just north of the islands..bahamas and SE USA afterwards..

when the GFS ran this storm as a hurricane for the first time at that 00z run..where did it take it into? It was North of the islands and SE Florida..always go back to the first run especially with the GFS because it usually always come back to it..


Ive seen that happen time and time and time again!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Okay, now they've bumped the winds up 5 knots:

AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 107N, 469W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


One more 5 knots bump, and it's a tropical storm winds. Is 99L a close circulation right now?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Okay, now they've bumped the winds up 5 knots:

AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 107N, 469W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


And more north in latitude than the 10.2N.
06z GFS showed 99L slowly developing until reaching the Western Caribbean where real intensification begins.
I agree with those on a more southerly track...it's taking it's time to develop. The longer it does that...the more southern it will be. My opinion at this time is Caribbean into the "Hot Tub"...Hope I'm wrong....
2221. LargoFl
Quoting gulfbreeze:
We are watching!
..yes we are watching this closely huh..water temps in the gulf..high 80's..around texas its 90 whew
Quoting ncstorm:


they wont admit it when it comes to the NOGAPs..just let it be..


LOL
Quoting Neapolitan:
Okay, now they've bumped the winds up 5 knots:

AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 107N, 469W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

TD status imminent...

And it jumped .5N...
CMC "Constantly Making Conclusions" How?.Because it has come to the conclusion that Future Ernesto will affect the east coast of Florida and has not changed it's mind other wise.
Quoting GetReal:



99L appears to be close to becoming a TD or TS Ernesto later today. I see there is plenty of speculation as to where this system is going.

The previous runs of the M.O.D. (model of doom) had been pretty consistant on bringing an Ivan type tracking system across the southern Caribbean, before it turned WNW towards the NW Caribbean.

The latest 1300 run of the MOD has shifted slightly northward, and Ernesto tracking west to WNW as a strong Cat 1 hurricane through the central Lesser Antilles. MOD brings Erneato towards, and possibly over Jamaica as a strong Cat 2 as it tracks WNW torwards the Caymans. Ernsto bombs as a Cat 4 in NW Caribbean.

MOD turns Ernesto NW towards the Yucatan Channel, and at the end of the run has a 920 mb hurricane sitting in the central GOM.

MOD is nearly always correct.


Well... I've never heard of "MOD" before.
2226. ackee
When will 99L be upgraded ?


A 5pm
B 11pm
C 5Am tomorrow
D 11Am tomorrow
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I think we will have a TD at 5pm today. 99L is really looking good right now.

or maybe straight to a storm.
2228. LargoFl
Quoting washingtonian115:
CMC "Constantly Making Conclusions" How?.Because it has come to the conclusion that Future Ernesto will affect the east coast of Florida and has not changed it's mind other wise.
..IF..its right then this will become an East coast storm,so those folks need to be paying attention as well to this system and its track huh
2229. SLU
All that's needed to conclude the formalities now is a good ASCAT pass to confirm its structure.
Quoting ackee:
When will 99L be upgraded ?


A 5pm
B 11pm
C 5Am tomorrow
D 11Am tomorrow

A.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And more north in latitude than the 10.2N.


The low appears to have responded to a weakness just to its North by lifting some but the track should resume a more Westerly motion in the next 12 hours or so IMO.

Quoting ackee:
When will 99L be upgraded ?


A 5pm
B 11pm
C 5Am tomorrow
D 11Am tomorrow


c
Quoting ackee:
When will 99L be upgraded ?


A 5pm
B 11pm
C 5Am tomorrow
D 11Am tomorrow


B
2234. LargoFl
..notice off miami's coast..whats that?
Quoting LargoFl:
..IF..its right then this will become an East coast storm,so those folks need to be paying attention as well to this system and its track huh
Yes their are so many possibilities as far as track and strength is concerned.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Okay, now they've bumped the winds up 5 knots:

AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 107N, 469W, 30, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

TD status imminent...

they also changed 10.2N 47.0W to 10.7N 46.9W looking at past track still moving W-N of due W

AL, 99, 2012080100, , BEST, 0, 99N, 432W, 25, 1009, LO,

AL, 99, 2012080106, , BEST, 0, 103N, 450W, 25, 1009, LO,

AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 107N, 469W, 30, 1009, LO
2237. GetReal


MOD has had the best handle of 99L so far.
I miss the FSU ensemble...what do yall consider the next best thing?
Quoting floridaboy14:
well i think it wont weaken in the eastern carribean. i just think it wont stregnthen. big difference. i am siding with TA13 on a track south of jamaica wnw towards the yucatan channel


To any of you smart gals and fellas,where is that new england trof supposed to be in 8-9 days and will it have the strength to create a weakness for Ernesto to go north if he is in the mid/eastern caribbean?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I doubt 99L strengthens enough to come out of the Caribbean. It should pass through the Windward Islands around 14N and move west-northwest and be located just south of Jamaica in 5-6 days...probably as an intensifying hurricane.
and on to western Cuba,the Gulf and Texas(noobie wild guess)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

Nice banding. It looks like a TD to me. Maybe special update coming soon.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

they also changed 10.2N 47.0W to 10.7N 46.9W looking at past track still moving W-N of due W

AL, 99, 2012080100, , BEST, 0, 99N, 432W, 25, 1009, LO,

AL, 99, 2012080106, , BEST, 0, 103N, 450W, 25, 1009, LO,

AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 107N, 469W, 30, 1009, LO


That new position means it will not move over our friends in Trinidad & Tobago.
Quoting muddertracker:
I miss the FSU ensemble...what do yall consider the next best thing?

XTRP!
Quoting GetReal:


MOD has had the best handle of 99L so far.
What is this MOD you're talking about? Just wondering...
I would imagine a HH will soon be positioned at St. Croix to check it out.
I strongly think that we will get renumber either at 11am or 2pm today
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

they also changed 10.2N 47.0W to 10.7N 46.9W looking at past track still moving W-N of due W

AL, 99, 2012080100, , BEST, 0, 99N, 432W, 25, 1009, LO,

AL, 99, 2012080106, , BEST, 0, 103N, 450W, 25, 1009, LO,

AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 107N, 469W, 30, 1009, LO
FWIW, since the midnight GMT update, ATCF has relocated 99L 4.7 degrees to the north, and 3.7 degrees to the west.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

XTRP!


LOL!!!! Morning TA13...hahhahahah!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


To any of you smart gals and fellas,where is that new england trof supposed to be in 8-9 days and will it have the strength to create a weakness for Ernesto to go north if he is in the mid/eastern caribbean?
That's still a big question mark for now...
2250. bappit
Quoting washingtonian115:
CMC "Constantly Making Conclusions" How?.Because it has come to the conclusion that Future Ernesto will affect the east coast of Florida and has not changed it's mind other wise.

That's an old jibe at a model that has been upgraded.
Quoting GetReal:


MOD has had the best handle of 99L so far.
If MOD was correct we'd have a cat 2 by now.Lol.
Dry air and the shear from the TUTT seems to be affecting 99L as of now. Have to see how that progresses today.

Otherwise, low level banding has improved markedly form yesterday.

It's going to need more convective organization to be classified.



Quoting kmanislander:
I would imagine a HH will soon be positioned at St. Croix to check it out.
They're doing it Friday if I remembered correctly. Not 100% positive.
2254. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
..notice off miami's coast..whats that?
Hello!!,sorry I'm not a expert what this graphic represent?,you said Miami coast what is that?,it looks to me like a low pressure (the way the arrows are pointing) off the South East coast is this correct?,thank you!.
Quoting LargoFl:
Ew.It's like a huge Jacuzzi.
I am not really liking the TVCN model for 12Z has it come stright to the Cayman Islands and recurves it in the middle of Cayman Islands

Quoting kmanislander:
I would imagine a HH will soon be positioned at St. Croix to check it out.

expected to take off on friday though I think they may bump it up to Thurs
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I think the NHC is just waiting for this current blow up to persist through a little longer. It was starting to develop an anti-cyclone yesterday and judging by satellite representation it looks as if it is ventilating very well in 3 of its 4 quadrants. 99L has been steadily organizing the last 48 hours. So, at the least I'd say we will see the percentages go up by tonight, if not by tonight, then by tomorrow morning we should be looking at a Tropical Depression.

Being at 10N leaves it a place to where it is very difficult to develop westerly winds. It needs to gain a bit more in latitude, but it should do that in time. Being at 10N does make this system very difficult to turn out to sea. I wonder what the percentages of storms that form in the area of 99L are at making landfall. I bet it is high, not just for the islands, but all those beyond as well.



Is it completely out of the monsoon trof yet?
2259. DeValk
Any change this thing could stay south of Cuba and thread the needle into GOM?
2260. LargoFl
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello!!,sorry I'm not a expert what this graphic represent?,you said Miami coast what is that?,it looks to me like a low pressure (the way the arrows are pointing) off the South East coast is this correct?,thank you!.
..that was a futurecast of what the model see's friday.. for florida.....that swirl just might be what was over PR yesterday maybe
Quoting DeValk:
Any change this thing could stay south of Cuba and thread the needle into GOM?

Very possible.
Quoting GetReal:



99L appears to be close to becoming a TD or TS Ernesto later today. I see there is plenty of speculation as to where this system is going.

The previous runs of the M.O.D. (model of doom) had been pretty consistant on bringing an Ivan type tracking system across the southern Caribbean, before it turned WNW towards the NW Caribbean.

The latest 1300 run of the MOD has shifted slightly northward, and Ernesto tracking west to WNW as a strong Cat 1 hurricane through the central Lesser Antilles. MOD brings Erneato towards, and possibly over Jamaica as a strong Cat 2 as it tracks WNW torwards the Caymans. Ernsto bombs as a Cat 4 in NW Caribbean.

MOD turns Ernesto NW towards the Yucatan Channel, and at the end of the run has a 920 mb hurricane sitting in the central GOM.

MOD is nearly always correct.
I hope it is wrong we do not need a strong Hurricane in the C/Gulf with water temp like bath water!!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
06z GFS showed 99L slowly developing until reaching the Western Caribbean where real intensification begins.


Things have changed from yesterday very significantly.

IF this can keep together until the WCARB and slow to a decent pace, then conditions could become favorable for something more than a tropical storm.

Haven't done a blog in four years. If this develops within the next 24 hours and the projected upper-level pattern continues to change, I just might.
2264. LargoFl
Quoting DeValk:
Any change this thing could stay south of Cuba and thread the needle into GOM?
..there is always that chance..way too early to tell just yet
What is going on no 8AM Model why????
Keep Your Cool because Nature Wont



The good news or silver lining in the dark cloud of unrelenting sun and heat is if you have drought you can't have tornado producing storms. In fact, as was forecast here, after the fast start to the tornado season things went quiet. But not just here in the southeast, but nationwide. In fact, it looks like July will close having produced the fewest tornadoes on record. July could even go down with the fewest tornadoes for ANY summer month on record, the old record being 20 in August of 1957.

Another long-range forecast that proved right was that the tropical storm season would quiet down after it got off to an unusually fast start, in fact July will exit without a single named tropical system for the first time since 2009. It looks like August will turn more active in the tropics.
Cyber....do you have the link for the 06z GFS?
2268. CJ5
Shear continues to be low in the southern Caribbean which works well for 99L. Based on the steering layers, it should cross Barbados/St. Lucia before any significant turn begins. I can still see a EC possibility but time is running out quickly.
It's already been mentioned, but SAB is high enough for classification. TAFB reached T1.5 last night.

01/1145 UTC 9.3N 45.1W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic
you know if this recurves it will make it to TX/LA ahead of Aug 16-19.
I think it is safe to say they have blown that forecast :)
2271. GetReal


Nice in flow at the low levels, and ventilating in all quads in the UL.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What is going on no 8AM Model why????


May be related to computer issues......


NOUS42 KWNO 011048
ADMNFD


SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1043Z WED AUG 01 2012


NCEP`S PRIMARY SUPER COMPUTER WENT DOWN...WE ARE CURRENTLY
SWITCHING TO THE BACKUP...THERE WILL BE DELAYS IN NCEP MODEL
PRODUCTION BECAUSE OF THIS...MORE DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED AS
THEY ARE AVAILABLE.


06Z GFDL just finished, the HWRF is still running.
FWIW, a track between the HWRF and TVCN would have to potential for 99L to gain enough speed for the trades to not affect it, and for the UL shear to not be a significant player.

Have to look at some more variables though, but I'm very surprised by the change in tune.
2274. LargoFl
. .................................as you can see..right now the models are ALL OVER THE PLACE with 99l.....a few more days they should come into better agreement..remembering this has NOT yet formed into a tropical storm
So yesterday I was watching Denis Philips on live weather chat(I would love it if the doc could do one) and he totally dissed the Canadians and their model. "What do Canadians know about hurricanes","they know about snow and beer though"
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
21:00 PM JST August 1 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In East China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Damrey (975 hPa) located at 30.8N 128.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 20 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 34.9N 121.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Yellow Sea
48 HRS: 37.7N 119.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bohai Sea
72 HRS: 41.0N 122.0E - Tropical Depression Overland northeastern District of China

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TYPHOON SAOLA (1209)
21:00 PM JST August 1 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Saola (960 hPa) located at 23.9N 122.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
400 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
300 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 26.1N 121.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
48 HRS: 29.1N 119.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Overland Central China
72 HRS: 31.0N 115.0E - Tropical Depression Overland Central China
2277. Grothar
Seems to be gaining a little more latitude.

Quoting LargoFl:
..that was a futurecast of what the model see's friday.. for florida.....that swirl just might be what was over PR yesterday maybe
Thank you!!,that is what I thought!!,looking at the Atlantic rainbow loop,I can see there is less convention today from that tropical wave than yesterday,but at the same time is getting moisture and it's getting rounded and convention start to fire up again,so will see what happens?,anything North of the island this time a year is something to watch.
Gotta get to some work and will check in around lunch, but, the potential trajectory issue will be resolved in about 48-72 hours when the storm reaches depression or TS status, the hunters can get in to sample the surrounding synoptic conditions, and fresh data is fed into the models. We should have a better picture by Friday and the NHC track will of course reflect the consensus model guidance at that time. This storm might surprise lots of folks, intensity wise, whether it tracks into the Caribbean or just north of the Island chain..........It's headed into very warm and untapped SST's all the way in.
Quoting ncstorm:
here is the 00z CMC with visualizing colors dooming Florida







Anyone got the latest GFS at 216-240 time frame handy?
SCAT pass on 99L.

Seems the LLC is close to the edge of the convection.

Quoting ackee:
When will 99L be upgraded ?


A 5pm
B 11pm
C 5Am tomorrow
D 11Am tomorrow
A
2285. Grothar
The next flare-up of convection should begin again in the NW quadrant.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And it jumped .5N...


I was thinking earlier maybe 11.0n, I can live with 10.7
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
you know if this recurves it will make it to TX/LA ahead of Aug 16-19.
I think it is safe to say they have blown that forecast :)
might.not.be.a.straight.course.could.do.all.sorts .of.thingsgeorgiaz
Interested to hear Levi's opinion now that the Caribbean shouldn't kill it or weaken it dramatically like it looked like a few days ago. He said yesterday he'd have a tidbit out today.
Quoting SLU:
All that's needed to conclude the formalities now is a good ASCAT pass to confirm its structure.


What are they having problems with? I can't get ASCAT or OSCAT to load.
From me
Excellent MW pass on 99L.

Justifies a relocation of the LLC farther north. If it can stay under the convection today, this should begin to take advantage of being father away from the equator.

wow is that 50 to 60MPH!!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
SCAT pass on 99L.

Seems the LLC is close to the edge of the convection.

2294. LargoFl
Link.....................Hurricane Andrew and what it did to Homestead florida....gee
Maybe a TD by 11AM
Good morning everyone! Visible imagery and Dvorak suggest 99L is getting close to TD status.

Looking at water vapor numerical guidance this morning suggests that as long as 99L doesn't travel north of 15 degrees latitude before it gets to 65W, the upper level shear should be pretty favorable.

Upper level westerlies are located closeby to the north with flow around a large, nearly stationary upper level low near 27N44W, though they shouldn't get any closer to the CoC as 99L continues its WNW heading away from the low.

About the only thing I see on model guidance over the next two days that is unfavorable is some moderately dry mid/upper levels. Once in the eastern Caribbean, there will be a bit more low/mid level shear, and continued dry air. I'm a bit surprised by the low intensity guidance by all of the dynamical models, but out of respect for them, I would think that a blend between their intensity and the latest SHIPS guidance would be reasonable.

Given that, I'd say TD later today (11am/5pm) then TS at some point tomorrow. I see the storm around 50 mph as it crosses into the eastern Caribbean and only very slow intensification until it reaches 75W or so...
The U.S can not afford to have a hurricane headed for us.No one wants that after a long break :(.Opps Am I missing something?..It starts with a I...
Putting my two cents in--maybe three cents...looks like

99l is BOC bound. However the stronger it gets, the

better chance it gets "pulled" more northerly before

reaching the BOC. There is plenty of hot water on that

route. Should be interesting.
Nother pass...

Looks like a very obvious LLC

2301. GetReal


99L should track generally towards the west or slightly WNW the next 72 hours in IMO.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Maybe a TD by 11AM

Today? Nah.
the ATCF doesn't say so. And it has only 60% chance of forming within the next 48 hours.

Just out of curiosity, why doesn't the NHC say 2 days instead of 48 hours and 1 day instead of 24 hours?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Excellent MW pass on 99L.

Justifies a relocation of the LLC farther north. If it can stay under the convection today, this should begin to take advantage of being father away from the equator.



This is an excellent product! On the shortwave loop you can see it, too.
Kelvin wave has progressed a bit slower over the past 12 hours.

Should be over 99L later tonight into tomorrow.

The well-advertised departure from the ITCZ has occurred, but in turn 99L has lost its symmetrical shape of convection due to dry air entrainment and high shear on the northern side (also well-advertised). The circulation is there for a TC, but the NHC has to make the choice on whether there is enough convection to classify Ernesto.

2306. LargoFl
This is for those folks who have yet to experience a hurricane and WHAT damage they can go..and in what Category...........amazing........................ .............Based on the Saffir-Simpson scale:

A Category Three Hurricane, sustained winds of 111-130 mph will cause extensive damage. Some structural damage to houses and buildings will occur with minor amount of wall failure%u2026

Based on a Category Four Hurricane, sustained winds 131-155 mph, extremely dangerous winds causing devastating damage are expected. Some wall failures with some complete roof failures on houses will occur%u2026

Based on the test results in comparison to the minimum wind speed of a Category Four Hurricane, 131 mph. Hurricane Harness provides a 20% increase or equivalent to 26 mph in wind speed resistance before roof failure begins.

Summary:

Combine 131 mph 26 mph = 157 mph; a Category Five hurricane
.............im thinking..should i get roof tie downs..when i found this
Quoting Waltanater:
A
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Kelvin wave has progressed a bit slower over the past 12 hours.

Should be over 99L later tonight into tomorrow.


And convection should have no problem increasing today, especially near the southern half of the system.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Is it completely out of the monsoon trof yet?


IMO not totally, but it is in the process of detaching. You can even see that on the vortex maps and satellite representations. You can see the trough kicking out to the west in front of it all the way to the islands. Then you can see the moisture field its also wrapping into it from the east back towards the rest of the ITCZ.



If the CIMSS shear analysis is 100% correct, (which it never is) then there is about 30 knots on the northern edge of the circulation.

All this has to do is halt the northern movement for a bit and it will benefit greatly from some strong ventalation.
2311. GetReal
Quoting washingtonian115:
If MOD was correct we'd have a cat 2 by now.Lol.


Like many of the other models , it has trouble with handling intensity.?.
2312. GetReal


A different look at 99L.
Florida,you can HAVE this storm. We are still recovering from IKE in this area and just don't want death and destruction...not that anyone does.

I am however grateful for all the rain we've received. Last summer was just brutal. Still lots of dead trees and it wouldn't take a bad storm to knock them over.
Quoting GetReal:


Like many of the other models , it has trouble with handling intensity.?.

Can't be as bad as the HWRF or CMC.

LOL
Quoting Pocamocca:

And convection should have no problem increasing today, especially near the southern half of the system.


Does the Kelvin wave help with ventilation or atmospheric lift or something? I think I read that somewhere...
Quoting ackee:
When will 99L be upgraded ?


A 5pm
B 11pm
C 5Am tomorrow
D 11Am tomorrow



B
Quoting LargoFl:
This is for those folks who have yet to experience a hurricane and WHAT damage they can go..and in what Category...........amazing........................ .............Based on the Saffir-Simpson scale:

A Category Three Hurricane, sustained winds of 111-130 mph will cause extensive damage. Some structural damage to houses and buildings will occur with minor amount of wall failure%u2026

Based on a Category Four Hurricane, sustained winds 131-155 mph, extremely dangerous winds causing devastating damage are expected. Some wall failures with some complete roof failures on houses will occur%u2026

Based on the test results in comparison to the minimum wind speed of a Category Four Hurricane, 131 mph. Hurricane Harness� provides a 20% increase or equivalent to 26 mph in wind speed resistance before roof failure begins.

Summary:

Combine 131 mph 26 mph = 157 mph; a Category Five hurricane
.............im thinking..should i get roof tie downs..when i found this

I saw damage by Andrew in person...unbelieveable.
Doc is late with the new blog. I bet he'll have lots to say with this developing system...
Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
Florida,you can HAVE this storm. We are still recovering from IKE in this area and just don't want death and destruction...not that anyone does.

I am however grateful for all the rain we've received. Last summer was just brutal. Still lots of dead trees and it wouldn't take a bad storm to knock them over.
Ike was a bad bad.I heard some parts are still deserted.Is that true?.
2320. pottery
For Information.

A very good site in Barbados.

www.brohavwx.com

Radar, lightening strikes, whatnot and stuff.
Quoting muddertracker:


Does the Kelvin wave help with ventilation or atmospheric lift or something? I think I read that somewhere...

I THINK so, but not entirely sure. Hopefully someone will jump in and give a good answer...
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Today? Nah.
the ATCF doesn't say so. And it has only 60% chance of forming within the next 48 hours.

Just out of curiosity, why doesn't the NHC say 2 days instead of 48 hours and 1 day instead of 24 hours?

The ATCF doesn't say so now...that doesn't mean it won't get upgraded later today. Tropical Storm Bret from last season went from Code Orange 30% to a Tropical Depression in just a few hours, albeit that's because there was a recon out.

99L is organized enough to be declared Tropical Depression Five. It's up to them to decide whether or not to do it later today.
2324. SLU
212

WHXX01 KWBC 011344

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1344 UTC WED AUG 1 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20120801 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120801 1200 120802 0000 120802 1200 120803 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

LBAR 10.7N 46.9W 11.4N 49.9W 11.9N 53.0W 12.3N 56.1W

SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 48KTS

DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 48KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120803 1200 120804 1200 120805 1200 120806 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

LBAR 12.6N 59.0W 13.6N 64.9W 14.4N 70.4W .0N .0W

SHIP 51KTS 52KTS 45KTS 44KTS

DSHP 51KTS 52KTS 45KTS 37KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 46.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 43.2W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 18KT

LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 39.8W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Wash....yes it's true. Some areas will never recover. On another note, after Ike, I bought a whole house stand alone generator. Not sure how much good that will do with the windows blown out though.
it would seem that Typhoon Saola and Typhoon Damrey planned their attack on Taiwan.............
2327. LargoFl
....................hmmm do we have to watch something closer to the florida coast?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ATCF doesn't say so now...that doesn't mean it won't get upgraded later today. Tropical Storm Bret from last season went from Code Orange 30% to a Tropical Depression in just a few hours, albeit that's because there was a recon out.

99L is organized enough to be declared Tropical Depression Five. It's up to them to decide whether or not to do it later today.

Bret's a great example. Glad you brought that up.
2329. Squid28
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ike was a bad bad.I heard some parts are still deserted.Is that true?.


Sadly yes, this is my area it is pretty ghost townish in a lot of areas...

Shoreacres
As a Kemah, Texas resident I am a bit less concerned about 99L today than I was on Monday. Wind shear appears to be effecting 99L and hopefully will rip it apart before it gets a real chance to develope.
Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
Wash....yes it's true. Some areas will never recover. On another note, after Ike, I bought a whole house stand alone generator. Not sure how much good that will do with the windows blown out though.

Impact windows?
NWS Key West ‏@NWSKeyWest

This disturbance, about 1,000 miles east of S. Windward Islands, will likely become #Tropical Cyclone #Ernesto. #flwx


key west believes
Quoting LargoFl:
....................hmmm do we have to watch something closer to the florida coast?


No.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NWS Key West ‏@NWSKeyWest

This disturbance, about 1,000 miles east of S. Windward Islands, will likely become #Tropical Cyclone #Ernesto. #flwx


key west believes

They're a believer!

If this is any indication of where 99L may go:

2335. hydrus
Quoting GetReal:



99L appears to be close to becoming a TD or TS Ernesto later today. I see there is plenty of speculation as to where this system is going.

The previous runs of the M.O.D. (model of doom) had been pretty consistant on bringing an Ivan type tracking system across the southern Caribbean, before it turned WNW towards the NW Caribbean.

The latest 1300 run of the MOD has shifted slightly northward, and Ernesto tracking west to WNW as a strong Cat 1 hurricane through the central Lesser Antilles. MOD brings Erneato towards, and possibly over Jamaica as a strong Cat 2 as it tracks WNW torwards the Caymans. Ernsto bombs as a Cat 4 in NW Caribbean.

MOD turns Ernesto NW towards the Yucatan Channel, and at the end of the run has a 920 mb hurricane sitting in the central GOM.

MOD is nearly always correct.
I was hoping this system would gain some latitude and have a higher chance at recurvature out to sea. The deep convection has become more centralized since yesterday.
2336. LargoFl
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NWS Key West ‏@NWSKeyWest

This disturbance, about 1,000 miles east of S. Windward Islands, will likely become #Tropical Cyclone #Ernesto. #flwx


key west believes
......................folks just remember....from the NHC............



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
Will Ernesto be the next great Cape Verde storm?
The Gulf temps off the Southwest Florida Coast (Fort Myers area)are running at or above 90 degrees right now so let's hope we don't see another Charley scenario or it could get UGLY!
Quoting Grothar:
Seems to be gaining a little more latitude.




Agree
Unknown,
Not entirely sure what impact windows are, but if they're what the name implies, sounds like something I should look into. Just too many windows to board.
Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
Wash....yes it's true. Some areas will never recover. On another note, after Ike, I bought a whole house stand alone generator. Not sure how much good that will do with the windows blown out though.
Quoting Squid28:


Sadly yes, this is my area it is pretty ghost townish in a lot of areas...

Shoreacres
Reminds me of some parts of the lower 9th ward that were never touched again after Katrina.Who would wish this on somebody?.
Quoting hydrus:
I was hoping this system would gain some latitude and have a higher chance at recurvature to sea. The deep convection has become more centralized since yesterday.

Exactly. Convection isn't the issue why NHC would hold out on calling 99L later today. I see Ernesto this afternoon, Folks.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Will Ernesto be the next great Cape Verde storm?
The Gulf temps off the Southwest Florida Coast (Fort Myers area)are running at or above 90 degrees right now so let's hope we don't see another Charley scenario or it could get UGLY!

99L's too far from Cape Verde and the East Atlantic to be considered a Cape Verde tropical cyclone.
2343. GetReal
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Will Ernesto be the next great Cape Verde storm?
The Gulf temps off the Southwest Florida Coast (Fort Myers area)are running at or above 90 degrees right now so let's hope we don't see another Charley scenario or it could get UGLY!



Well there have been several here calling for the NHC to retire the Ernesto name....
2344. LargoFl
Quoting Houstonweathergrl:
Unknown,
Not entirely sure what impact windows are, but if they're what the name implies, sounds like something I should look into. Just too many windows to board.
..im looking into roof tie downs..if the roof goes..poof goes the windows i guess..my wife says..a cat-3 or higher and we are on I-75 headed north as fast as we can
Quoting LargoFl:
......................folks just remember....from the NHC............



There are no tropical cyclones at this time.


You're right! Let's go back to that global warming discussion! Sarcasam Flag: RI

2346. Patrap
Whether 99L becomes Tropical Depression 5 today or not is all dependent on if it can manage to sustain it's convection while being able to increase organization in banding. The continued northern motion by 99L is telling that it has separated from the ITCZ, TAFB and SAB are both at 1.5, and latest SCAT pass reveals that there is a circulation on the NW edge of the convection. I'm still not sold on this happening today as I've seen for a long time systems that look impressive in the day then take a swig of dry air and become less organized as the day progresses before developing. Let's see what happens.
99L struggles on. The disruptive swirl in the front 1/2 of it is about to get tore up on South America. It soon may have a chance to pull together before it hits that area of higher shear where the TUTT is. The little swirl off Africa is coming undone. Another wave is about to step off.
Quoting muddertracker:


You're right! Let's go back to that global warming discussion! Sarcasam Flag: RI


LMAO!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Whether 99L becomes Tropical Depression 5 today or not is all dependent on if it can manage to sustain it's convection while being able to increase organization in banding. The continued northern motion by 99L is telling that it has separated from the ITCZ, TAFB and SAB are both at 1.5, and latest SCAT pass reveals that there is a circulation on the NW edge of the convection. I'm still not sold on this happening today as I've seen for a long time systems that look impressive in the day then take a swig of dry air and become less organized as the day progresses before developing. Let's see what happens.


Good morning CT, can you let me know if the Kelvin wave aids in atmospheric lift or ventilation? TIA
A storm has to be at least 600 miles in the area of the Cape verde islands to be considered one.
2352. Patrap
2353. LargoFl
Quoting jascott1967:
As a Kemah, Texas resident I am a bit less concerned about 99L today than I was on Monday. Wind shear appears to be effecting 99L and hopefully will rip it apart before it gets a real chance to develope.
..I am with you on that..we dont need any hurricane this year doing alot of damage to any area
2354. Patrap
Quoting washingtonian115:
A storm has to be at least 600 miles in the area of the Cape verde islands to be considered one.

Now that I did not know. Thanks for the nugget.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

99L's too far from Cape Verde and the East Atlantic to be considered a Cape Verde tropical cyclone.
well not exactly... it would need to be declared a depression pretty soon and has to develop at LEAST 100 miles east of the islands but it has cape verde roots
*12z SHIPS could be unreliable.

It was run off of the BAMM track due to the Camp Springs, MD computer issues. Last cycle was off the OPFI which was much further south and faster.

Might get an official track later.
Quoting Patrap:
Wave coming off africa looks massive.
Quoting muddertracker:


You're right! Let's go back to that global warming discussion! Sarcasam Flag: RI

Now that you mentioned it duck here they come!!.Lol.
2360. Patrap
A closed mind sees no Light.

But bulbs are cheap.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now that you mentioned it duck here they come!!.Lol.

No, it'll be the day after the storm makes landfall acting as if a hurricane has NEVER made landfall before and caused destruction. Then they'll be out in huge numbers.
Quoting floridaboy14:
well not exactly... it would need to be declared a depression pretty soon and has to develop at LEAST 100 miles east of the islands but it has cape verde roots

Most tropical cyclones that develop in the Atlantic do. That doesn't make them a Cape Verde system.

Cape Verde hurricane:



Not a Cape Verde hurricane:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2364. Patrap
..O the sweet smell of success,

handle me with care..
2365. LargoFl
one GOOD thing about 99L....its getting people to THINK..about preparing etc...its been slow for storms so far..and people are relaxed huh....time to prepare..just in case..August is here now
I believe 99L is good enough to be classified a TD. The NHC, however, may not be impressed with the convection-less northern quadrant.

Quoting muddertracker:


This is an excellent product! On the shortwave loop you can see it, too.


Link Please
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

99L's too far from Cape Verde and the East Atlantic to be considered a Cape Verde tropical cyclone.


Oh quit being such a stickler, I'm working on my dramatization skills! LOL
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Will Ernesto be the next great Cape Verde storm?
The Gulf temps off the Southwest Florida Coast (Fort Myers area)are running at or above 90 degrees right now so let's hope we don't see another Charley scenario or it could get UGLY!




Caribe will be hard on this system,
Quoting Patrap:
A closed mind sees no Light.

But bulbs are cheap.





So are words.
Quoting Patrap:


Is bearing 340 degrees on that the actual heading now? 340 is NNW?