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African tropical wave 99L has potential to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2012

The first African tropical wave of 2012 with a potential to develop is Invest 99L, located in the Eastern Atlantic near 9°N 36°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa. Visible satellite loops show a large area of the surrounding atmosphere has a pronounced counter-clockwise spin, though there is no surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity is pretty sparse, but appears to be slowly increasing. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies well to the north of 99L. WInd shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 99L.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance is at 9°N, which is close enough to the Equator that the storm will have some difficultly getting spinning. Most of the models are showing some slow development of 99L, with the storm reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, August 3. NHC gave 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. I expect the storm will have trouble with dry air at times this week as it crosses the Atlantic, but I give 99L a 50% chance of eventually developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto sometime in the next ten days. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday night. The long-range fate of 99L is uncertain, but a trough of low pressure is expected to be present over the Eastern U.S. early next week, which would be capable of turning 99L more to the northwest.

Hot in the Central U.S.
The heat in America's heartland continued on Sunday, with Wichita, KS hitting 111°F, just 3° short of their all-time hottest temperature of 114° set on 8/12/1936. Other notable highs on Sunday:

111° Coffeyville, KS
111° Winfield, KS
110° Chanute, KS
110° Parsons, KS
109° Joplin, MO (all-time record is 115° on July 14, 1954)

The low temperature in Tulsa, Oklahoma this Monday morning dropped to only 88°F. This is the all-time warmest low temperature in the city since record keeping began in 1905. The previous record warmest minimum temperature was 87°F set on August 2, 2011 and July 16, 1980. The high in Tulsa Monday - Wednesday is expected to reach 110° - 111°, close to the city's all-time hottest temperature of 115° set on August 10, 1936.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1502. ncstorm
the 00z nogaps is running..it actually strengthen the storm off of NC

48 hours


108 hours


120 hours
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






What's the 18Z look like?
At least imo 99L will cross a little bit of the Caribbean it will cross PR or pass near it.
Quoting CaribBoy:
Bored with the GFS! I hope it's wrong lol


You're in luck, average model error (in nm) from the first run on 99L is in.. Out of the box GFDL (6) & HWRF (8) takes the lead.. GFS is best of the rest with 46, AVNO, NGP & CMC are even further off.
Quoting ncstorm:
the 00z nogaps is running..it actually strengthen the storm off of NC

48 hours


108 hours


120 hours
Maybe we will have Ernesto out of it and Florence for the system in the Caribbean or backwards.would be cool to track 2 systems at the start of August.
99L has all the makings of a hurricane to be, in my opinion. It has outflow, a clear spin, blowups of convection near a giant center. This is such a massive system. Maybe similar to the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944?
Quoting ncstorm:
the 00z nogaps is running..it actually strengthen the storm off of NC

48 hours


108 hours


120 hours



This looks like when debby,the majority of the models showed west and GFS showed east to florida....rigth now the majority of the models shows more west-northwest and the GFS is shows more to the west

The GFS will win the second round ?
Quoting allancalderini:
Maybe we will have Ernesto out of it and Florence for the system in the Caribbean or backwards.would be cool to track 2 systems at the start of August.
Imagine the Fujiwara effect!
Quoting ncstorm:
the 00z nogaps is running..it actually strengthen the storm off of NC

48 hours


108 hours


120 hours
Not really buying this NC blob getting stronger.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


What's the 18Z look like?
thats all i have access too we wait till the am after sunrise for new plots
Good night, y'all.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Good night, y'all.
good night
Night All!

Quoting Bluestorm5:
Not really buying this NC blob getting stronger.
I at least hope an invest of it.
nino/nina regions compare map jun july 2012



Quoting Bluestorm5:
Good night, y'all.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Night All!

nights both of you.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The graveyard...scientifically called the John Hope rule...only applies to systems that have not developed. 99L should be a moderate to intense tropical storm by that time.



There is no guarantee 99L develops into a TS. The Atlantic is in the early stages of becoming favorable. I believe mid August is when the real fireworks should start and could end up being the most active month of hurricane season. September and October might be more quiet than usual.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nino/nina regions compare map jun july 2012





huh? looks...cooler than Jun
1523. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


huh? looks...cooler than Jun


This should give you a better idea.

Strong storms in MI tonight.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


huh? looks...cooler than Jun
notice that too huh
Quoting wxchaser97:
Strong storms in MI tonight.
heading my way later as well
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
heading my way later as well
They are severe with 60mph winds and they are headed for me.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nino/nina regions compare map jun july 2012



Quoting wunderkidcayman:


huh? looks...cooler than Jun


You don't go by actual sea surface temperature readings. ENSO states are determined through anomalies, which are the highest they have been in Nino 3.4.
Grand Rapids severe warned
he National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Kent County in southwest Michigan... * until 200 am EDT * at 102 am EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking a line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. These storms were located along a line extending from Howard City to 7 miles northwest of Sparta..and moving southeast at 40 mph. Small hail may also accompany these damaging winds. * Locations impacted include... Grand Rapids... Sparta... Cedar Springs... Rockford... Lowell... Spencer TWP... Solon TWP... Grattan TWP... Oakfield TWP... Fallassburg... Cutlerville... alpine... Comstock Park... Alaska... Alto... Grandville... Belmont... Dutton... Precautionary/preparedness actions... Severe thunderstorms can produce damaging wind in excess of 60 miles per hour... destructive hail... deadly lightning... and very heavy rain. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of your home or business. Heavy rains flood roads quickly so do not drive into areas where water covers the Road. Lat... Lon 4329 8579 4329 8531 4277 8531 4277 8578 time... Mot... loc 0504z 332deg 36kt 4336 8538 4319 8582 wind... hail 60mph <1.00in Duke
Quoting MississippiWx:


You don't go by actual sea surface temperature readings. ENSO states are determined through anomalies, which are the highest they have been in Nino 3.4.

yes I know
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes I know


Then why did you say they look cooler? Just an observation?
Trees and power lines being downed in W MI. I'll stay up to see if storms head my way.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Then why did you say they look cooler? Just an observation?

cause it does on that image

Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
30% at 2am for invest 99L


I say orange 40% or 50% at 2am
waitin on TWO then off to sleep for me
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
waitin on TWO then off to sleep for me
Pretty much the same for me unless storms look really threatening and are definitely coming my way.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
waitin on TWO then off to sleep for me

same here darn I wish it would come now I want to sleep
Still browsing through the archives, I found a certain advisory on Fabian (22) rather interesting:

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2003

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF FABIAN
SINCE THE LAST RECON FIX AT 01/1917Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 125 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 127 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND
IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS ALSO BECOME QUITE SYMMETRIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/09. THIS GENERAL MOTION HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR MORE THAN 72 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE GLOBAL AND GFDL
MODELS HAVE DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB SO FAR WITH FABIAN...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR INTENSITY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
SINCE FABIAN WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS OF AROUND 29C AND UNDER
WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...BY 72-96 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE SOME FASTER WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY BY 120 HOURS
WHEN SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE 24C.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 19.4N 58.6W 125 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 19.8N 60.1W 125 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 20.8N 62.1W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 22.1N 63.6W 120 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 23.3N 64.7W 115 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 27.0N 67.2W 105 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 33.0N 68.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 40.5N 67.0W 85 KT


NNNN

This has to be one of Stewart's shortest discussions.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
Staying with 20%. Might be 30% due to increased thunderstorm activity, but final answer is 20%. Still embedded within ITCZ. Still not its own entity.
Still 20%

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Still 20%. Can't say I agree with Richard.
Ha...I got it right for once.

However, as I've said already several times, the NHC won't be impressed until it separates from the ITCZ and persists. That problem is still valid.
iam outta here see ya around 8am or so

night everyone
ok now I sleep 20% though it should be higher anyway I'll check back in the early morn like maybe 6 or so I'm out
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam outta here see ya around 8am or so

night everyone
Good night Keeper, hopefully you don't get any bad storms.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Still browsing through the archives, I found a certain advisory on Fabian (22) rather interesting:

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2003

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF FABIAN
SINCE THE LAST RECON FIX AT 01/1917Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 125 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 127 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND
IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS ALSO BECOME QUITE SYMMETRIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/09. THIS GENERAL MOTION HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR MORE THAN 72 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE GLOBAL AND GFDL
MODELS HAVE DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB SO FAR WITH FABIAN...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR INTENSITY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
SINCE FABIAN WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS OF AROUND 29C AND UNDER
WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...BY 72-96 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE SOME FASTER WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY BY 120 HOURS
WHEN SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE 24C.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 19.4N 58.6W 125 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 19.8N 60.1W 125 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 20.8N 62.1W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 22.1N 63.6W 120 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 23.3N 64.7W 115 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 27.0N 67.2W 105 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 33.0N 68.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 40.5N 67.0W 85 KT


NNNN

This has to be one of Stewart's shortest discussions.
I can`t find the one of Linda 1997 want to read the discussion when she became the strongest eastern pacific.
1554. JLPR2
20% seems about right, at least for the moment.

Quoting MississippiWx:
Ha...I got it right for once.

However, as I've said already several times, the NHC won't be impressed until it separates from the ITCZ and persists. That problem is still valid.


It is, but given the convection I would have went with 30%. Nothing drastic, but a little upward push would do fine.
Quoting allancalderini:
I can`t find the one of Linda 1997 want to read the discussion when she became the strongest eastern pacific.


I've always wanted to browse through Linda's as well, for the sole reason the forecast track literally had her going into southern California.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok now I sleep 20% though it should be higher anyway I'll check back in the early morn like maybe 6 or so I'm out
Good night Wunderkid.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It is, but given the convection I would have went with 30%. Nothing drastic, but a little upward push would do fine.


No reason to up the percentage really. Even if it had departed or started departing the ITCZ, they would want to see it persist for another day or so. It still has no northward movement whatsoever. To top it off, the circulation is very broad and weak. It's a nice disturbance, yes, but unimpressive on the tropical development end so far.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Still 20%. Can't say I agree with Richard.


he didn't sharpen the orange crayon...
1560. JLPR2
One thing to note is the size of the circle, at least that changed.



99L is big, seems like only half the circulation has convection.
1561. Bonz
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yellow monkey B******
Japan should be red flaged
don't know why my Grand Uncle calls them yellow monkey he always said that him and his buddys was always pissed off by them back in WW2


That wasn't a bribe. Evidently, a team has to pay to file an investigation. If the investigation is accepted, as happened in this case, the money is refunded.

I assume the requirement to pay to file is to keep frivolous appeals from being filed.
99L looks to have gained in organization... slightly. What's interesting me now is the convective mass above the Lesser Antilles, it's starting to look pretty sharp, and it's kind of been persisting all day. I say that if I wake up to a new circle on the NHC page, I would not be surprised.
1565. JLPR2
Quoting LostTomorrows:
99L looks to have gained in organization... slightly. What's interesting me now is the convective mass above the Lesser Antilles, it's starting to look pretty sharp, and it's kind of been persisting all day. I say that if I wake up to a new circle on the NHC page, I would not be surprised.


It's dissipating, new convection is forming south of PR.

Quoting sunlinepr:


this storm reminds me of Dean
Quoting JLPR2:


It's dissipating, new convection is forming south of PR.



Is that your way of saying "I want rain"? :P
Maybe is the heat of all those lights what's keeping the rain away....

Quoting KoritheMan:


Is that your way of saying "I want rain"? :P


I DO.... I WANT RAIN.... LOTS OF RAIN....
THE BACKYARD TANK CISTERN IS YELLING ALSO... I WANT RAIN...
1572. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is that your way of saying "I want rain"? :P


Nah, I'm good. XD Actually ended July a little above average.
Quoting sunlinepr:


I DO.... I WANT RAIN.... LOTS OF RAIN....


*does a rain dance*
MI line looks to be weakening slightly, warnings dropped.
I want... I want....
to go to bed... goodnight....
euro at 24 hours
Can any one tell me how to post images on the blog?
Quoting wxwonder1:
Can any one tell me how to post images on the blog?
Copy the image's URL(not the pages URL), click the image button, and then paste the URL and then post comment.
48 hours
1580. JLPR2
Quoting JLPR2:


Nah, I'm good. XD Actually ended July a little above average.


Scratch that, I'm actually slightly below average.

Actual month total 5.32
Normal month total 5.43

Maybe the TW could help fill that gap today.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Off topic, but I just lol'd at Japan using cash to bride the judges to get them a silver in Men's team gymnastics...

Best laugh of the day so far ...
Quoting wxchaser97:
Copy the image's URL(not the pages URL), click the image button, and then paste the URL and then post comment.


Okay think I have the grasp! Thanks for your time and teaching me how to do that
Quoting wxwonder1:

Looks good!
Quoting wxwonder1:


Okay think I have the grasp! Thanks for your time and teaching me how to do that
Your welcome, I don't mind doing that.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Looks good!


Thanks man!!!!
72 hours
96 hours
1589. JLPR2
99L still has a long way to go, but it is slowly getting there.



With that I'm off to bed, good night/morning everyone!
120 hours
Beat me to it. Looks like 99L is making its turn to the north during the 120 hr frame of the 00z ECMWF.
Quoting JLPR2:
99L still has a long way to go, but it is slowly getting there.



With that I'm off to bed, good night/morning everyone!

Good night JLPR2!
1593. JLPR2
One last thing before I go.

3hrs ago:


Now:
Quoting JLPR2:
One last thing before I go.

3hrs ago:


Now:
Looks to be getting stronger/ more circular.
Quoting Patrap:
Nothing like a Huge Haboob..
I reckon that I do prefer Very Large HaBOOB'S
Quoting nofailsafe:
Beat me to it. Looks like 99L is making its turn to the north during the 120 hr frame of the 00z ECMWF.
Yes I did, that is different from previous runs and the gfs.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imager y/vis0-lalo.jpg
144 hours
Quoting RussianWinter:
So uhh, do you guys think the Euro is going to get back in the game or no?


EURO ran away and hid in shame after Debby. I don't think it needs to do that as it's the one that usually get the "A'.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Hey Pat, This was a good one......



I was at this concert, and 17.....


The Chamber Brothers seem a bit out of character with the top two bands on the poster list.
Good night everyone
Quoting wxwonder1:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/imag er y/vis0-lalo.jpg
Image didnt appear, got the right URL but you didnt paste it in the image part.
Anyone seen a case of Vanilla Ensure?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone seen a case of Vanilla Ensure?


There was one in my fridge. Daughter drank em all. Lil brat!!! ;)
Well this is new. Bout the time the gfs agrees with previous EURO runs. The EURO takes 99l into the western GOM.



Quoting wxgeek723:


LOLOL you did not just call them beliefs.


I missed it. Does Chick Filet want to ban gay people from their stores? Are they using the old sign"We reserve the right to refuse service to anyone?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
15:00 PM JST July 31 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Damrey (975 hPa) located at 28.6N 138.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 18 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 30.7N 131.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - east northeast of Tanega shima
48 HRS: 33.1N 124.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Yellow Sea
72 HRS: 37.7N 120.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bohai Sea
Canadian Model 144 hrs. out in Isotachs:

Quoting stormchaser19:



This looks like when debby,the majority of the models showed west and GFS showed east to florida....rigth now the majority of the models shows more west-northwest and the GFS is shows more to the west

The GFS will win the second round ?


Win round 2? GFS delivered a 14 punch combo to the EURO'S face to knock the EURO out!! If it wants it's respectibility back.......the EURO needs to tell us now where 99L/Ernesto is going to be in 10 days.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
15:00 PM JST July 31 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon South Of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saola (970 hPa) located at 21.1N 123.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
400 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 22.7N 123.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south southwest of Ishigaki Island
45 HRS: 24.7N 122.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - west northwest of Yonaguni Island
69 HRS: 27.3N 120.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
Euro 144 hrs. out:



GFS 144 hrs. out:



Euro is faster than the GFS, but both heading in a general westward path.
Has anyone checked out the what the GFS for the WPAC for the next 144hrs....

Saola and Damrey.


54hrs


144hrs


I guess this is what the MJO pulse does.
Hey, ya'll... how's our invest doing this fine a.m.?
UKMET

I'm thinking SA or Yucatan...if it can even survive. One thing is for sure the GFS and ECMWF are not too excited about this system. The ECMWF does have a lot to prove after the last disaster. Going by atmospheric conditions in the Caribbean you would think that anything taking that route is doomed.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, ya'll... how's our invest doing this fine a.m.?


Hey Baha. Looks like not much change from earlier. Still hanging in there.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Has anyone checked out the what the GFS for the WPAC for the next 192hrs....

Saola and Damrey.


54hrs


144hrs


I guess this is what the MJO pulse does.
Coming soon to an ATL near you...
Quoting KoritheMan:


I've always wanted to browse through Linda's as well, for the sole reason the forecast track literally had her going into southern California.


At 902mb,strongest east pacific hurricane on record. A trof was forecast to lift her NE into Soo Cal as a TS, Alas the trof that was forecast to lift her NE into Soo Cal was too weak and the ridge following the trof turned her back to the west.



GFS 114hrs, 99L enters stage right


144hrs


162hrs. and 99L is gooooooooooooooooone
Quoting robert88:
I'm thinking SA or Yucatan...if it can even survive. One thing is for sure the GFS and ECMWF are not too excited about this system. The ECMWF does have a lot to prove after the last disaster. Going by atmospheric conditions in the Caribbean you would think that anything taking that route is doomed.
I doubt South America, anything from the Mosquito Coast northward, like you said though if it can make it out of the Caribbean alive. Best atmospheric conditions would be north of the islands, which is why the CMC seems the most bullish in terms of strength.
Quoting robert88:
I'm thinking SA or Yucatan...if it can even survive. One thing is for sure the GFS and ECMWF are not too excited about this system. The ECMWF does have a lot to prove after the last disaster. Going by atmospheric conditions in the Caribbean you would think that anything taking that route is doomed.


I was surprised that it held onto anything enough to make it to the gulf in the last EURO run. Previous runs had it weak through the Caribbean. Which is basically what the GFS showed. The CMC is still showing a stronger system reaching Florida's east coast. Guess we'll see how the models perform this go round.
good morning/night everybody! havent been on in a few! been working late nights. but i see 99L is finally waking evryone up
The circulation is becoming better defined:





It's hard to say....but I have a lot of confidence in the GFS right now. It might turn out all the models will be wrong lol 99L is taking it's sweet time out there...so the GFS is probably real close to the speed timing(OOZ run). The ECMWF looks like it might be too fast imo
Quoting bigwes6844:
good morning/night everybody! havent been on in a few! been working late nights. but i see 99L is finally waking evryone up


Hey Wes. I don't know how many are still awake now lol. But 99l looks to be holding its own on satellite. :)

I'm out for the night, Goodnight everyone.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Euro 144 hrs. out:



GFS 144 hrs. out:



Euro is faster than the GFS, but both heading in a general westward path.


What's that stuff in Floriduh?
Link

You sure can see some shear in the W Atlantic/Caribbean on satellite. That ULL to the N of 99L can't seem to make up it's mind what it wants to do.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hey Wes. I don't know how many are still awake now lol. But 99l looks to be holding its own on satellite. :)



I'm always awake on nights like these.
1630. bappit
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The circulation is becoming better defined:






That map can be misleading. It is based on a model that assumes a well defined circulation exists.
Quoting bappit:

That map can be misleading. It is based on a model that assumes a well defined circulation exists.


Alright, where is Ascat then?
Hey, AtHome... I'm getting ready to leave in a few, but wanted to take a look at 99L before I go. Today may be a big one for 99L. It'll definitely be a hectic one for me...

I'm off...
i remember when i last was on when debby arrived but now i see this map lite up with colors! folks welcome to the real official start of hurricane season!

So why no ATCF for 31July6amGMT?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hey Wes. I don't know how many are still awake now lol. But 99l looks to be holding its own on satellite. :)

I see that the core of 99L seems to be organizing a little bit better this morning. But what concerns me is dat shear in the carribean. It may tear this thing up in the next few days
99L should be at 40% by the next TWO
99L
99L
1639. bappit
Quoting aspectre:

So why no ATCF for 31July2012?

See the about page for that product.

"Currently, this product combines information from five data sources to create a mid-level (near 700 hPa) wind analysis using a variational approach described in Knaff and DeMaria (2006). The resulting mid-level winds are then adjusted to the surface applying a very simple single column approach. Over the ocean an adjustment factor is applied, which is a function of radius from the center ranging from 0.9 to 0.7, and the winds are turned 20 degrees toward low pressure. Over land, the oceanic winds are reduced by an additional 20% and turned an additional 20 degrees toward low pressure."

So it assumes that the mid-level circulation that it analyzes from the data is actually present at the surface. That is not necessarily true. Also, the analysis it performs on the data may itself be off.
check out this wave behind 99L. wouldnt be suprised to see something on this later on or by aug 1st
Do the system near NC dissipate?
Models are really starting to like 99l now.

Also, Caribbean wave has more convection than ever before. Still not taking anyone's notice though. The shear has come down a lot in the vicinity.
RTSplayer u right about the shear in the carribean! check the forecast for the next couple of days. WOW!
1644. LargoFl
......................Good Morning Folks..still at 20% this morning..nothing new with it so far
1641 allancalderini: Does the system near BC dissipate?

What's 'BC'? BajaCalifornia?
Quoting aspectre:
1641 allancalderini: Does the system near BC dissipate?

What's 'BC'? BajaCalifornia?
sorry I am too sleepy I mean NC.
1647. SLU
the convection has increased with 99L but it still looks very blobbish
1648. hydrus
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, ya'll... how's our invest doing this fine a.m.?
Slowly but surely organizing.
since this shear is coming down in the carribean this thing should intensify rather quickly!
that water surely is boiling hot! waters ahead of 99L is very warm and hot!
The usual ASCAT wind products page hasn't been working for the past day. This seems to be OK:

Link
Good morning... CMC last night:

Slowly but surely, 99L is organizing... Probably 30% at 8AM but IMO should be 40% because of all this convection:

1654. LargoFl
...................7 day forecast for the Tampa Bay area..looks like another day like yesterday alright
The 6z GFS keeps 99L through 192 hours, then dissipates it:

1656. LargoFl
.............................that blob down by the Islands is still there
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning... CMC last night:

cat1...not.the.end.of.the.world..hispanola.system .is.persistant..wait.to.it.enters.the.gulf
1658. LargoFl
yep,the bad weather is starting already, its going to be a very interesting day here in the southeast......................BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
616 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DADE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
WESTERN WALKER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 715 AM EDT

* AT 615 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES
NORTHWEST OF TRENTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN...LAFAYETTE AND CHICKAMAUGA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE...HAIL OR FLOODING...WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED...AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8
6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX.



LAT...LON 3499 8528 3498 8526 3486 8526 3485 8520
3479 8520 3466 8533 3488 8560 3498 8561
3499 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 1016Z 307DEG 21KT 3507 8566
morning
99L is slowly organising and could become a depression by late wednesday. the system is moving west with an ULAC dirctly over the disturbance.This will allow proper ventilation for the system. there is strong 850mb vorticity as well as good convergence and divergence. the system will move slightly north of west the next 48 hrs with a more wnw turn there after. 99L is expected to become tropical storm Ernesto some time friday. and affect barbados and the central lesser antilles with tropical storm force winds, heavy rainfall and rough seas ,starting friday evening and continuing on saturday. residence of these islands should monitor this developing situation.
Quoting LargoFl:
.............................that blob down by the Islands is still there


Yup. Was watching the PR radar earlier, and saw isolated rainfall rates of 4 inches per hour, with several cells above 2 inches per hour.
1661. LargoFl
1662. LargoFl
Quoting RTSplayer:


Yup. Was watching the PR radar earlier, and saw isolated rainfall rates of 4 inches per hour, with several cells above 2 inches per hour.
wow thats alot of rain but i think someone said they were needing rain, this should help them out if they dont get too much flooding, the blob isnt a fast mover
1663. LargoFl
1664. LargoFl
..............................oh boy
Quoting islander101010:
cat1...not.the.end.of.the.world..hispanola.system .is.persistant..wait.to.it.enters.the.gulf


The 6z GFS does send it into the gulf via Florida. Seems to persist awhile anyway. Link

Quoting LargoFl:
..............................oh boy


That can't be good.
1667. LargoFl
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


The 6z GFS does send it into the gulf via Florida. Seems to persist awhile anyway. Link

..whew keep an eye on that storm for us,we in florida are going to be dealing with these severe rain storms most of this week,attention is going to be on them and the possible flooding etc
1668. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
554 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 645 AM CDT

* AT 552 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
RUSSELL CAVE NATIONAL MONUMENT...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BRIDGEPORT...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSSELL CAVE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
LONG ISLAND...
BRIDGEPORT...BASS...
STEVENSON...
FABIUS...HIGDON...
FACKLER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.



LAT...LON 3483 8563 3480 8563 3478 8592 3499 8593
3499 8586 3499 8560 3498 8560 3486 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 1053Z 353DEG 20KT 3503 8579


SL
Quoting LargoFl:
..whew keep an eye on that storm for us,we in florida are going to be dealing with these severe rain storms most of this week,attention is going to be on them and the possible flooding etc


Oh no. Hope it doesn't get too bad. Y'all don't need a wave on top of that.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That can't be good.



Very good for drought areas
Quoting LargoFl:
wow thats alot of rain but i think someone said they were needing rain, this should help them out if they dont get too much flooding, the blob isnt a fast mover
sign.theres.available.energy.for.further.downstre am
Quoting mcluvincane:



Very good for drought areas


Ah. Then there is a silver lining. :)
1673. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS MORNING ALONG
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THEN DRIFT INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INTERIOR. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ESPECIALLY STRONG IN HERNANDO...
CITRUS...SUMTER...AND LEVY COUNTIES. GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...SCATTERED DURING
THE DAYTIME AND ISOLATED OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
ECMWF is showing a strong disturbace in thr catl on the 9th august, and a stroger one about to exit the african coast.
For the second consecutive day, parts of India's power grid have suffered massive failures, knocking out electricity to about half of the country's 1.2 billion residents. Today's event is the single largest power failure ever in the history of the world. Hundreds of trains were brought to a halt; traffic lights are out, leading to major traffic chaos; there's no air conditioning, especially rough for this time of year. And so on. The disrupted monsoon has led to lowered hydroelectric generation, while at the same time it's kept the temperatures hotter, meaning an even greater demand on the electrical grid.

Now, if that doesn't sound all the bad, consider: proportionally speaking, that would be equivalent to a blackout here in the U.S. affecting every single person in California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina. At the same time. In the middle of summer.
Red sky by morning here in the Northwest Florida Panhandle!
1677. LargoFl
................IF..99L follows the path the GFS says it will..its not our storm,unless it makes an abrupt right hand turn once it passes the islands
Quoting stoormfury:
ECMWF is showing a strong disturbace in thr catl on the 9th august, and a stroger one about to exit the african coast.


Yep and 99l in the gulf.

Quoting stoormfury:
ECMWF is showing a strong disturbace in thr catl on the 9th august, and a stroger one about to exit the african coast.



That's what y call a wave train.... bout time
1680. LargoFl
................................OMG..floridians in the panhandle LISTEN to your local warnings and stay safe up there,this looks bad huh
Miami NWS Discussion

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE
TOWARDS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. PWATS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE...SO POPS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE METRO AREAS
AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE MAY MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON.
SO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
Good morning. Impressive vorticity.

1683. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
................IF..99L follows the path the GFS says it will..its not our storm,unless it makes an abrupt right hand turn once it passes the islands


The latest model runs are from 8:00 p.m. last night?
1685. LargoFl
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Discussion

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE
TOWARDS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. PWATS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE...SO POPS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE METRO AREAS
AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE MAY MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AROUND DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON.
SO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
..............so this might be the wave they were expecting to move into the gulf..we need to watch That one for sure..water temps in the gulf are mid 80's
1686. LargoFl
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


The latest model runs are from 8:00 p.m. last night?
..yes i think so
1687. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
ECMWF is showing a strong disturbace in thr catl on the 9th august, and a stroger one about to exit the african coast.


Doesn't feel like an El Nino-like year doesn't it?
1688. LargoFl
..............just look at what that tropical wave will meet..gee,gasoline for a storm
1690. LargoFl
.........................GFS at 60 hours with rainfall
Quoting Neapolitan:
For the second consecutive day, parts of India's power grid have suffered massive failures, knocking out electricity to about half of the country's 1.2 billion residents. Hundreds of trains were brought to a halt; traffic lights are out, leading to major traffic problems; there's no air conditioning, especially rough for this time of year. The weak monsoon has led to lowered hydroelectric generation, while at the same time it's kept the temperatures hotter, meaning an even greater demand on the electrical grid.

Now, if that doesn't sound all the bad, consider: that would be equivalent to a blackout here in the U.S. affecting every single person in California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina. At the same time. In the middle of summer.


My math has 1.2B/2 = 600M people. US is just over 300M people. So just under twice the population of the entire US has no power.
Quoting SLU:


Doesn't feel like an El Nino-like year doesn't it?



El nino? Really? This is a el nino year? Couldn't tell
Quoting naviguesser:


My math has 1.2B/2 = 600M people. US is just over 300M people. So just under twice the population of the entire US has no power.


Yesterday it was 370 million people.
Quoting naviguesser:


My math has 1.2B/2 = 600M people. US is just over 300M people. So just under twice the population of the entire US has no power.
Incredible, huh? It's the single largest power failure in history...
1696. LargoFl
Quoting Neapolitan:
Incredible, huh? It's the single largest power failure in history...
.gee somehow that country needs to improve its power plants enough to withstand bad storms huh..cannot imagine almost a whole country without power..simply amazing that could happen
1697. LargoFl
..............................I wonder what will happen when this bad storm gets into the northern gulf?
1698. LargoFl
Quoting naviguesser:


My math has 1.2B/2 = 600M people. US is just over 300M people. So just under twice the population of the entire US has no power.

Correct.
1700. LargoFl
Tulsa, OK

Today: 111
Tmrw: 112
Thu: 111

Oppressive heat. Still shy of the all-time record by several degrees. We'll see if we can eclipse it.
Quoting LargoFl:
.gee somehow that country needs to improve its power plants enough to withstand bad storms huh..cannot imagine almost a whole country without power..simply amazing that could happen
go.to.a.hospital.recently...half.the.doctors.are. indian.....they.dont.want.to.live.there
Quoting LargoFl:

Morning Largo.
TROPICAL WAVES...

MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N36W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR
9N37W MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND IS MOVING WSW 5-10 KT ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. LOW
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 37W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N67W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS
THE MONA PASSAGE/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 16N69W TO 12N67W
MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
15N-19N BETWEEN 66W-70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N TO OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 61W-70W.
1705. LargoFl
Quoting islander101010:
go.to.a.hospital.recently...half.the.doctors.are. indian.....they.dont.want.to.live.there
..sure must be crowded there huh
1706. LargoFl
Quoting Pocamocca:

Morning Largo.
..good morning
0Z CMC has a hurricane right on the east coast of FL.



Nogaps is near the Bahamas as well.

1708. LargoFl
................................Blob is still there off the carolina's
99L needs to pull away from the ITCZ so that it can develope more.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
0Z CMC has a hurricane right on the east coast of FL.



Nogaps is near the Bahamas as well.


Is your current thinking that he might still stay north of PR and Hispaniola?
Looks like some major action coming my way in Pensacola from the north. Had some awesome t-storms yesterday afternoon! Can't wait to see what today brings!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
99L needs to pull away from the ITCZ so that it can develope more.


Exactly. Needs much more spin. Although the GFS pretty much tracks it due West for several days.
1713. LargoFl
going to have some warnings out later on in the southwest...............Heavy Monsoon Rain and Flash Floods Impacting the Southwest

The Monsoon is in full swing across portions of the Southwest and Great Basin early this week. Heavy rainfall from afternoon thunderstorms will have the potential to cause flash floods, debris flows and road washouts through at least Tuesday. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for portions of southern Utah, southern Nevada, southeast California and western Arizona.
1714. ncstorm
00z CMC



NOGAPS is still developing a system off of NC from a disturbance located near tennessee..





1715. LargoFl
Quoting PcolaSurf182:
Looks like some major action coming my way in Pensacola from the north. Had some awesome t-storms yesterday afternoon! Can't wait to see what today brings!
..yes my guess is warnings will go out for your area pretty soon, quite a nasty looking storm and large also
Quoting Pocamocca:

Is your current thinking that he might still stay north of PR and Hispaniola?


If it doesn't pull away from the ITCZ soon then it may just go south as the Euro and GFS are saying. The next 3 days are key but I also feel we have a sleeper wave near PR that people in FL better watch later this week as the wave looks really good this morning.

Could have our nerxt named system out of the mess near PR.

Good Mourning tropical trouble ahead.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1150 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Upper divergence


Lower convergence


99L is looking darn good for still only 20%.
1720. LargoFl
1721. GetReal


August is going to get interesting....
they.work.for.nothing..problem.is.having.power.to.r un.the.factories..
20% lol who pulls the percentage switch at the NHC? Seems a little conservative to me...
1725. ncstorm
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If it doesn't pull away from the ITCZ soon then it may just go south as the Euro and GFS are saying. The next 3 days are key but I also feel we have a sleeper wave near PR that people in FDL better watch later this week as the wave looks really good this morning.

Could have our nerxt named system out of the mess near PR.



Yeah, I said that people shouldnt sleep on the first wave..really starting to look good this morning..
Quoting GetReal:


August is going to get interesting....


Indeed it will
Quoting ncstorm:


Yeah, I said that people shouldnt sleep on the first wave..really starting to look good this morning..


That first wave near PR looks good this morning and I wonder if this area will get circled by the NHC later.
Quoting Pocamocca:
Tulsa, OK

Today: 111
Tmrw: 112
Thu: 111

Oppressive heat. Still shy of the all-time record by several degrees. We'll see if we can eclipse it.


Just last winter they had a low one night of -31F
Quoting mcluvincane:
20% lol who pulls the percentage switch at the NHC? Seems a little conservative to me...


99L really needs to pull itself out of the ITCZ and concentrate its activites a little closer to a 'center' before the % chance for development increases.
1731. LargoFl
...........................................florid a panhandle take heed..that line of storms turned severe..better be a warning out on that storm Fast huh
Good morning.CMC has been really consistent in forming future Ernesto into a formidable system and sending it near or on to the S.E coast.JFV would be proud.
Looks like China is going to take it on the chin, although Saola has had issues over the last two days. Seems like the northern side of the storm is being sheared or is experiencing some stable, sinking air from the outflow of Damrey. I don't know if Saola will get to a major as they have her pegged for.



Hello Boys and Girls
Quoting StormTracker2K:
0Z CMC has a hurricane right on the east coast of FL.



Nogaps is near the Bahamas as well.

10 day margin of error is well over 1,000 miles,it could end up from bermuda to the gom.waaaaaay to early to speculate on a east coast hit,especially since we've already had several t-waves ride around the perphery of the ridge an into fl or the eastern gom.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If it doesn't pull away from the ITCZ soon then it may just go south as the Euro and GFS are saying. The next 3 days are key but I also feel we have a sleeper wave near PR that people in FL better watch later this week as the wave looks really good this morning.

Could have our nerxt named system out of the mess near PR.


Yeah, I've been wondering about that mess over there. But I agree with you regarding 99L.
1737. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
801 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

FLZ007>011-108-311300-
HOLMES FL-NORTH WALTON FL-JACKSON FL-CENTRAL WALTON FL-SOUTH WALTON
FL-WASHINGTON FL-
701 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR HOLMES...WESTERN
JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN WALTON AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

AT 658 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FLORALA TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SLOCOMB...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
BONIFAY BY 740 AM CDT.
CHIPLEY BY 745 AM CDT.
6 MILES NORTH OF VERNON BY 800 AM CDT.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT (8 5 0)
9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...CONTACT LAW ENFORCEMENT.

LAT...LON 3099 8637 3099 8547 3066 8522 3059 8611
TIME...MOT...LOC 1200Z 309DEG 21KT 3092 8621 3095 8550

$$
1738. ncstorm
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That first wave near PR looks good this morning and I wonder if this area will get circled by the NHC later.




they're watching it
Quoting washingtonian115:
Good morning.CMC has been really consistent in forming future Ernesto into a formidable system and sending it near or on to the S.E coast.JFV would be proud.

Keep your hopes high, wash. You will get your Atlantic Basin hurricane. It will happen this year. It may not be with 99L but it will happen. Hang in there.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If it doesn't pull away from the ITCZ soon then it may just go south as the Euro and GFS are saying. The next 3 days are key but I also feel we have a sleeper wave near PR that people in FL better watch later this week as the wave looks really good this morning.

Could have our nerxt named system out of the mess near PR.



If anything that wave near PR is certainly moistening the environment for others down the road. 99L looks healthy this morning too, I think we may see a 40-50% on this sometime today. Like you said though it does need to disconnect from the ITCZ, but it has been steadily organizing over the last 36 hours.



1741. LargoFl
Morning All. The population of models that develop 99L has been reduced this morning. Most notably, the TVCN consensus model. Which means that the consensus of the models it uses for its forecast say no development.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Just last winter they had a low one night of -31F

Wow! In the next few years, we should see winters here in the CONUS like we used to.
That first wave isn't in as much as a favorable environment as 99L.Maybe some gusty rain showers for some.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If it doesn't pull away from the ITCZ soon then it may just go south as the Euro and GFS are saying. The next 3 days are key but I also feel we have a sleeper wave near PR that people in FL better watch later this week as the wave looks really good this morning.

Could have our nerxt named system out of the mess near PR.



Morning all. And I tend to agree. Models are pretty persistent now with keeping 99l on a very southern path almost hitting South America.
Pocamocca Chris was a nice hurricane to track.Thousands of miles away from land a just a swirling away and looked really good.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Morning All. The population of models that develop 99L has been reduced this morning. Most notably, the TVCN consensus model. Which means that the consensus of the models it uses for its forecast say no development.



GFDL nor HWRF have not been runned since Monday morning at 06z.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Pocamocca Chris was a nice hurricane to track.Thousands of miles away from land a just a swirling away and looked really good.

Yeah but I want something more powerful. Don't you?

Chris was okay though.
I think some people are confused about what the % means on the nhc site. The percentage doesnt go up automatically when the system looks better unless it has a higher chance of becoming a tropical system within the next 48 hours. That is all the % means. It doesnt mean the % of it becoming something ever. If something, like dry air, ITCZ, Latitude, Shear or whatever are hindering the chances within the next 48 hours then the % wont go up.

messed.up.sorry.meant.the.93.gert...http://en.wikip edia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gert_(1993)
Junkie ~

You buying some of these models taking it straight up to Summerville, SC?
RC015-095-109-151-311245-
ARROYO PR-MAUNABO PR-PATILLAS PR-YABUCOA PR-
819 AM AST TUE JUL 31 2012

AT 811 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THESE MUNICIPALITIES. THESE AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS
THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS
MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD
WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

$$

OMS
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Just last winter they had a low one night of -31F
The coldest it's ever been in Tulsa was -27...and that was in 1930. Source

(The temperature hasn't gone subzero in Tulsa this year, and it did so only thrice last year, reaching -1, -6, and -12 in February.)
Quoting Neapolitan:
The coldest it's ever been in Tulsa was -27 in 1930. Source

Tulsa is a large city, and thus has multiple airports:

Link
Quoting LargoFl:


Nice shot of Hail Yes and Hail No
Quoting Neapolitan:
The coldest it's ever been in Tulsa was -27...and that was in 1930. Source


Wrong infact this was on Doc's blog back last February.

Oklahoma Shatters All-Time Low Temperature Record
Oklahoma Shatters All-Time Low Temperature Record
Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
February 10, 2011

The Oklahoma Mesonet station at Nowata reached a low temperature of -31 degrees this morning. Pending verification procedures by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, that mark will eclipse the previous statewide record low temperature of -27 degrees. The previous record was set at Vinita in February 1905 and at Watts in January 1930. Numerous other low-temperature records were broken this morning across the state, with several locations dropping below the previous statewide record. The National Weather Service site in Bartlesville recorded -28 degrees this morning, as did the Oklahoma Mesonet site at Pryor.

Low temperature readings from the Oklahoma Mesonet, February 10, 2011:

Site Low Temperature (F)
Nowata -31
Pryor -28
Blackwell -27
Medford -26
Marshall -25
Vinita -24
Cherokee -24
Lake Carl Blackwell -23
Inola -23
Breckinridge -23
Red Rock -23
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. Impressive vorticity.



Agreed. 850, 700 and 500 mb vorticity slowly strengthening and vertically stacked in a low shear, moist environment.

Good amount of convergence, though linear due to it still being imbedded in the ITCZ.

I think another night of Dmax and we might be pretty close to a TD tomorrow morning. Should see some quick flow through the eastern Caribbean which won't allow much, if any, strengthening. Then it all comes down to land interaction. Way too early to speculate...
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Wrong infact this was on Doc's blog back last February.

Oklahoma Shatters All-Time Low Temperature Record
Oklahoma Shatters All-Time Low Temperature Record
Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
February 10, 2011

The Oklahoma Mesonet station at Nowata reached a low temperature of -31 degrees this morning. Pending verification procedures by NOAA%u2019s National Climatic Data Center, that mark will eclipse the previous statewide record low temperature of -27 degrees. The previous record was set at Vinita in February 1905 and at Watts in January 1930. Numerous other low-temperature records were broken this morning across the state, with several locations dropping below the previous statewide record. The National Weather Service site in Bartlesville recorded -28 degrees this morning, as did the Oklahoma Mesonet site at Pryor.

Low temperature readings from the Oklahoma Mesonet, February 10, 2011:

Site Low Temperature (F)
Nowata -31
Pryor -28
Blackwell -27
Medford -26
Marshall -25
Vinita -24
Cherokee -24
Lake Carl Blackwell -23
Inola -23
Breckinridge -23
Red Rock -23
Where's Tulsa on that list? The city reached -12 on February 10. That's cold...but nowhere near -31, and still 15 degrees 'warmer' than the city's all-time record low.
Quoting osuwxguynew:


Agreed. 850, 700 and 500 mb vorticity slowly strengthening and vertically stacked in a low shear, moist environment.

Good amount of convergence, though linear due to it still being imbedded in the ITCZ.

I think another night of Dmax and we might be pretty close to a TD tomorrow morning. Should see some quick flow through the eastern Caribbean which won't allow much, if any, strengthening. Then it all comes down to land interaction. Way too early to speculate...


I just ran some 925 mb models...what quick flow? Looks to be about 15 kts in about 6-7 days.

Link
Good Morning. Lots of tropical issues out there and not sure if this has been posted yet but here is this am's ENSO Outlook from the Aussie Met Office:

Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds
Issued on Tuesday 31 July | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Most climate indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain at values near the threshold of an El Niño event. Although indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and trade winds are less El Niño-like than they were a month ago, ocean surface temperatures continue to show a pattern, and in some places values, typical of the development stage of an El Niño. Climate models suggest weak El Niño conditions are likely to be reached some time in late winter or spring. No climate models suggest a return to La Niña conditions.

During El Niño events, large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier than normal during winter and spring, while southern Australian daytime temperatures tend to be warmer. However, El Niño does not guarantee widespread dry conditions.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model indicate neutral to weak positive IOD conditions are likely through winter and spring.

Weekly sea surface temperatures:
Warm sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central tropical Pacific have increased slightly when compared to two weeks ago. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 29 July shows warm anomalies extend along the equator east of about 170°W, reaching more than 1 °C warmer than usual in parts of the eastern tropical Pacific. Tropical SSTs in the western half of the Pacific are near average for this time of the year.

Climate Models:
Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to remain near El Niño thresholds throughout late winter and early spring 2012. Some models continue to predict the chance of an El Niño developing before the end of the year. However, several of the surveyed models continue to exhibit a degree of spread in their forecasts, indicating that a level of uncertainty remains.



Looking like a weak to moderate El Nino going into the heart of the Atlantic Season at the moment.

Link
Up to 1.0.

31/1145 UTC 9.2N 40.6W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic
Quoting Neapolitan:
Where's Tulsa on that list? The city reached -12 on February 10. That's cold...but nowhere near -31.


I'm sorry near Tulsa. Those readings were some of the coldest in history. Doc posted this on his blog last year.
12z Best Track.

AL, 99, 2012073112, , BEST, 0, 93N, 396W, 20, 1010, DB
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Lots of tropical issues out there and not sure if this has been posted yet but here is this am's ENSO Outlook from the Aussie Met Office:

Pacific remains close to El Niño thresholds
Issued on Tuesday 31 July | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Most climate indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain at values near the threshold of an El Niño event. Although indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and trade winds are less El Niño-like than they were a month ago, ocean surface temperatures continue to show a pattern, and in some places values, typical of the development stage of an El Niño. Climate models suggest weak El Niño conditions are likely to be reached some time in late winter or spring. No climate models suggest a return to La Niña conditions.

During El Niño events, large parts of eastern Australia are typically drier than normal during winter and spring, while southern Australian daytime temperatures tend to be warmer. However, El Niño does not guarantee widespread dry conditions.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model indicate neutral to weak positive IOD conditions are likely through winter and spring.

Weekly sea surface temperatures:
Warm sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central tropical Pacific have increased slightly when compared to two weeks ago. The SST anomaly map for the week ending 29 July shows warm anomalies extend along the equator east of about 170°W, reaching more than 1 °C warmer than usual in parts of the eastern tropical Pacific. Tropical SSTs in the western half of the Pacific are near average for this time of the year.

Climate Models:
Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to remain near El Niño thresholds throughout late winter and early spring 2012. Some models continue to predict the chance of an El Niño developing before the end of the year. However, several of the surveyed models continue to exhibit a degree of spread in their forecasts, indicating that a level of uncertainty remains.



Looking like a weak to moderate El Nino going into the heart of the Atlantic Season at the moment.

Link


Thanks!
Good morning guys, here in Dominican Republic in the north part on the country where i live, is raining heavily and a lot of thunders,
the wave is near the country right now

Here is the am NCEP Caribbean discussion. Discussion as to the wave going through the Antilles right now but no mention yet as to the 20% wave:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
722 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES PROGRESSING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS NOW TO THE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WIDESPREAD PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS ENHANCED VENTILATION EVEN MORE...WHICH CONTINUES VENTING DEEP CONVECTION BEHIND THE WAVE. TWO AREAS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED. ONE TO THE SOUTH OF PASAJE DE LA MONA...AND ANOTHER ACROSS SAN MAARTEN-ANGUILLA INTO THE EASTERN USVI.

MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING ACTIVE CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH 48-60 HRS...AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ESTABLISHING BY THAN AT 800-825 HPA. THE UKMET HAS A DRIEST SOLUTION WITH MAXIMA IN THE ORDER OF 30-35MM/DAY FOR DAY 1...WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS TOTALS OF 40-50MM/DAY AND THE GFS 55-65 MM/DAY. FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THE HRWRF IS SHOWING MORE REASONABLE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN THE WRF-NMM...AS THE LATTER HAS A VERY WET SOLUTION WITH TOTALS APPROACHING 200MM/DAY. BASED ON MODEL TENDENCY AND CURRENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ORDER OF 50-75MM/DAY WITH HEAVIEST/MOST PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN/SOUTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 100MM/DAY. CONVECTION COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...TO LIMIT AGAIN TO SHALLOW DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)


1771. GetReal


It is looking more and more like the M.O.D. model (model of doom) run that I mentioned yesterday may actually be spot on!!!
Quoting GetReal:


It is looking more and more like the M.O.D. model (model of doom) run that I mentioned yesterday may actually be spot on!!!

Wouldn't something have to become of 99L first before it can realistically be called DOOM?
AL, 99, 2012073106, 91N, 381W, 20, 1010, DB, 0
AL, 99, 2012073112, 93N, 396W, 20, 1010, DB, 34
vis...99.might.be.done
1776. GetReal
Quoting Pocamocca:

Wouldn't something have to become of 99L first before it can realistically be called DOOM?


99L is on the MOD schedule....
Quoting GetReal:


99L is on the MOD schedule....

I see.


all to a caribbean death...
Quoting ilovehurricanes13:
we are going to get invest 90L soon.. look at the spin here at 20 west


What is going at the NHC this year as that looks impressive as well infact maybe more so than 99L.

Same general spread between CMC and GFS as yesterday morning as to 99L. CMC takes a stronger storm North of Puerto Rico and GFS has a weaker system moving into the Southern Caribbean. Basically, the CMC breaks the wave away from the ITCZ and the GFS keeps it as a low rider attached to the ITCZ and just missing the coast of South America at the last moment.

CMC

Link

GFS

Link
99L is over 1200miles from the lesser antilles .which at its current speed is well over 4 days from reaching the islands. a lot can happen during this period of waiting ,as conditions could change for better or worse depending on what one is looking at. early days yet ,just watch and wait
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Same general spread between CMC and GFS as yesterday morning as to 99L. CMC takes a stronger storm North of Puerto Rico and GFS has a weaker system moving into the Southern Caribbean. Basically, the CMC breaks the wave away from the ITCZ and the GFS keeps it as a low rider attached to the ITCZ and just missing the coast of South America at the last moment.

CMC

Link

GFS

Link


im leaning to the GFS since it pulled all the ensembles to the caribbean now, where most of the other models(including the euro) take 99L
Quoting quasistationary:


I just ran some 925 mb models...what quick flow? Looks to be about 15 kts in about 6-7 days.

Link


Strong low level flow causing wind shear, acting to tilt whatever forms from west at low levels to east upper levels.

Saturday 12UTC as 99L crosses into eastern Caribbean through southern/central Lesser Antilles:

@850mb ~30 knots easterly
@700mb ~30-35 knots easterly
@500mb ~10-15 knots

While this is certainly not the worst/strongest flow we see in this climatologically favored area for it (and why it gets the nickname graveyard of invests), it's not favorable either.

The pouch of moisture with 99L is relatively small - making it likely that 99L will also be fairly small (models concur), which makes it especially sensitive to shear.
Good news in 6z, GFS not dissipate before the islands
s
The Panhandle of FL is getting roicked this morning. This line may make down to near Tampa later this afternoon so be careful if you Tampa north today as these storms look dangerous.



I saw that African disturbance first! :).While the models were developing 99L it also developed that and turned it into at least a T.D.
Finally (before I have to get some work done), if anyone is paying attention to that big meso-scale convective complex getting ready to enter the Gulf later today, it is heading towards 20-40 knots of sheer in the Northern Gulf, but, going to rock my world here in Tallahassee later today.

Link

See Yall around lunchtime.
wave train seems to have come alive over Africa. conditions have improved over the eatl and there are a number of strong distubances . watch out
The NHC seems to have had trouble with the ATCF for 99L last night.

Just getting the 6z runs in now. Looks like a Caribbean Cruiser.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I saw that African disturbance first! :).While the models were developing 99L it also developed that and turned it into at least a T.D.

You are one of the best hurricane forecasters here...right up with Levi, StormChaser2007, and StormTracker2K.

I believe you.
700MB

500MB

200MB
Quoting Pocamocca:

You are one of the best hurricane forecasters here...right up with Levi and Stormchaser2007, and ST2K

I believe you.
Thank's.All though I don't think I'm on that level yet though.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thank's.All though I don't think I'm on that level yet though.

Stop it. :)
1794. Grothar
IT going up at 8AM
Quoting islander101010:
vis...99.might.be.done
99L is far from finished.It's only beginning.

9.3N 39.6W It going up now!!
The shear is limiting 99L a little specialy in the North part of the system,I think in the next 12-24 hours the system will look much better, the shear is supposed to be lower, models say

00 HOURS

48 HOURS
1799. 19N81W
anyone have any pics from storms rolling into Panama City?
1801. 19N81W
if 99l is that sensitive to shear its not going to do much in the caribbean which is where it is coming....sure could use some rain though!
IMO 99L may be a moderate to strong tropical storm when it reaches the islands.If it runs into the caribbean then expect it to get torn apart from shear.It may make a come back in the gulf if the circulation is still in tact.If 99L goes north of the caribbean and makes an exit near P.R then expect a much more stronger system that could either A.Go out to see(hoping that happens)B.Skirt the S.E coast or C...Make landfall some where along the coast.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DAMREY (1210)
21:00 PM JST July 31 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Damrey (975 hPa) located at 28.9N 137.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 30.7N 129.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - southwest city of Makurazaki
48 HRS: 33.3N 124.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Yellow Sea
72 HRS: 38.0N 120.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Bohai Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SAOLA (1209)
21:00 PM JST July 31 2012
=============================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Saola (970 hPa) located at 21.6N 123.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
400 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
==========================

24 HRS: 23.2N 123.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - southwest of Ishigaki Island
48 HRS: 25.4N 122.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - East China Sea
72 HRS: 28.2N 119.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Overland China
1804. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
735 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HOLMES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
CENTRAL WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 815 AM CDT

* AT 730 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES WEST OF DE FUNIAK SPRINGS TO 6 MILES NORTH OF
VERNON...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DE FUNIAK SPRINGS...PLEASANT RIDGE...WAUSAU...RED BAY...LIVE
OAK...HOLMES VALLEY...NEW HOPE...FREEPORT...BRUCE...EBRO AND
CRYSTAL LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.



LAT...LON 3078 8561 3044 8550 3043 8617 3045 8617
3047 8623 3043 8625 3046 8624 3048 8627
3079 8634
TIME...MOT...LOC 1234Z 347DEG 21KT 3070 8621 3069 8569


Quoting Pocamocca:
Junkie ~

You buying some of these models taking it straight up to Summerville, SC?


No way, I'm not convinced it will every make it out of the Carib. May pretty much stay on a western path the whole way.
PR is getting pounded this morning.

Quoting StormJunkie:


No way, I'm not convinced it will every make it out of the Carib. May pretty much stay on a western path the whole way.

I'm thinking the same. It should find it's final resting place somewhere in the Caribbean.
1808. LargoFl
.................................for you folks in Panama city, this first line of severe storms is just the beginning, a huge rain maker is following that first line..going to be a very interesting day up there for severe weather...now im wondering WHAT..is going to happen when this gets into the gulf with those 86 degree water temps.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
852 AM AST TUE JUL 31 2012

PRC015-025-035-041-057-069-077-085-095-103-109-12 3-129-151-311545-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0289.120731T1252Z-120731T1545Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ARROYO PR-CAGUAS PR-CAYEY PR-CIDRA PR-GUAYAMA PR-NAGUABO PR-JUNCOS
PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-MAUNABO PR-PATILLAS PR-SALINAS PR-SAN LORENZO
PR-YABUCOA PR-HUMACAO PR-
852 AM AST TUE JUL 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ARROYO...CAGUAS...CAYEY...CIDRA...GUAYAMA...NAGUAB O...JUNCOS...
LAS PIEDRAS...MAUNABO...PATILLAS...SALINAS...SAN LORENZO...
YABUCOA AND HUMACAO

* UNTIL 1145 AM AST

* AT 848 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA AND MORE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1807 6621 1819 6615 1813 6577 1811 6577
1797 6591 1796 6597 1797 6602 1795 6604
1796 6608 1793 6614

$$

SNELL
Quoting Pocamocca:

I'm thinking the same. It should find it's final resting place somewhere in the Caribbean.


Looks that way but we really have to watch and see if it can intesify some before reaching the islands because it does then 99L would turn more WNW. Basically between now and Friday is going to be key on where 99L ends up as for right now it looks like Central America.

Quite a blob coming down Alabama.
1812. kwgirl
Good morning all. I see the debate is still running concerning 99L. It looks more spread out to me this A.M. but I am only looking at a little snapshot. The blob by PR appears to have some rotation. Or is that just the shearing that makes it appear that way? Either way, it appears the blob is producing some heavy rains. Everyone have a great day today.
1813. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
754 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN CRENSHAW COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 749 AM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREENVILLE TO 16 MILES NORTH OF LUVERNE...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUTLEDGE... PETREY... LUVERNE...
I65 AND AL 185... I65 AND AL 10... GREENVILLE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 126 AND 139.

LAT...LON 3183 8618 3181 8620 3179 8618 3165 8620
3166 8664 3197 8672 3197 8641 3202 8641
3204 8630 3197 8629 3197 8619 3196 8618
3190 8617
TIME...MOT...LOC 1254Z 344DEG 39KT 3178 8662 3188 8635

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1815. LargoFl
1818. GetReal



Latest 13z run of the MOD has shifted east towards the Alabama coast on day thirteen. Very similar to an Ivan type track. Weak minimal TS trough the eastern and central Caribbean, and finally exploding into a strong hurricane just west of Jamaica. (flag on)
1819. Grothar
1820. ncstorm
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Euro 144 hrs. out:



GFS 144 hrs. out:



Euro is faster than the GFS, but both heading in a general westward path.


the models are trending more north..