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African Tropical Wave 98L Moving Over Cooler Waters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:23 PM GMT on July 23, 2013

A strong and well-organized tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Monday (98L) is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde Islands and is moving west-northwest at 15 - 20 mph. Satellite images show that 98L has a decent amount of spin, but only a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms that have not changed much in intensity or areal coverage this morning. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, which will tend to allow slow development. A large amount of dry air lies to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air will likely interfere with development later this week. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will stay in the moderate range through Saturday. Ocean temperatures are barely adequate for development, about 26.5°C today, and will be below average over the region of ocean 98L will be traversing on Wednesday and Thursday, 25 - 26°C. These temperatures are very marginal for development. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, does not favor increased chances of Atlantic tropical cyclone formation this week. The reliable computer models for tropical cyclone genesis do not predict that 98L will develop this week. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Thursday. 98L should maintain a west-northwest track through the week, and may spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Saturday night or on Sunday.


Figure 1. Satellite image of 98L off the coast of Africa taken at 8 am EDT Tuesday July 23, 2013, with a satellite analysis of where dry air is, as well. A large amount of dry air lies to the north and west of 98L, and will likely interfere with development later this week. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/HRD.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 2456. mikatnight:


Post #2303 if you missed it. Some other pics from this morning in My Photos.
Mik...Judging by the photo I would say you are around the corner from the Old Key Lime House (bridge construction) I lived up the road from you until 2 months ago on South Palmway, lake Worth... I now live in West Boynton
Quoting 2476. washingtonian115:
Wunderkid I hate to put you down but this isn't headed for the Caymans.Sorry just isn't in Dorian's future..

lol your not PART OF COMMENT REMOVED BY WUNDERKIDCAYMAN I never said it was heading for cayman hell I never even mention the W Caribbean

I said what I said to make a point now wash PART OF COMMENT REMOVED BY WUNDERKIDCAYMAN can you figure out the point I'm making
Just got up and am really surprised for not only how well organized this system is, but it's forecasted track. Sort of scary for S. Florida.
Morning bloggers. Latest visible loop shows what looks like an eye for the not yet named TD4. I'm hoping for an unexpected and unlikely recurve to the north or a giant gulp of dry air.
2505. FOREX
Quoting 2490. CaribBoy:
EARL

Advisory 1


Advisory 18


Right now Dorians cone is much further south than what you are showing with Earl.
Quoting 2486. VR46L:


I hope you are right , But I think its more of a possibility than the Euro Solution at the moment. if it has not Turned North before the Islands and is a storm there is no reason why a US landfall could not Happen .. Very strong High aint going to let it go north IMO


Not sure about the Euro either its has actually moved more west since designation. With a predicted 600 DM High predicted it wont see 20N for quite some time.
Quoting 2482. DataNerd:
Wind speeds are still increasing by the look of satellite imagery. Link
If I took a random glimpse at that shot without knowing what storm that was, I wouth think that it was either a strong TS or a hurricane.
Quoting 2495. Grothar:


I will never run in a 26 mile marathon.


You're right Grothar... Since there isn't such a thing as a 26 mile marathon. :-)

They're all 26.2 miles and as a marathoner those last .2 really hurt.
Kinda looks like an eye
Quoting 2490. CaribBoy:
EARL

Advisory 1


Advisory 18

Yep nearly the same day but not the same month and year, it could be an EARL's history maker.
Work to do in the hurricane preparation dept.; gotta work on the generator...

Make sure you're prepared...

Quoting 2485. SouthernIllinois:

Bet you really miss OLTL now since it's been off the air for two years. We're you a AMC fan too?

I miss it still. Atleast the Mannings have lived on at GH..

I had an Arabian mare named Dorian..


Check out the RAMMB NOAA site.. He's named Dorian there too..

WOW..click pic for loop.
Quoting 2495. Grothar:


I will never run in a 26 mile marathon.
That's funny right there I tell ya :o)

Taco :o)
Tropical Depression 04L (FOUR) Warning #01
‎Today, ‎July ‎24, ‎2013, ‏‎6 minutes ago | CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)Go to full article
Issued: Wed 24 Jul 2013 06:00Z

2013 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic


green ball04L.DORIAN



East Pacific


green ball98E.INVEST



Central Pacific



West Pacific


green ball98W.INVEST



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere
2516. Grothar
Quoting 2486. VR46L:


I hope you are right , But I think its more of a possibility than the Euro Solution at the moment. if it has not Turned North before the Islands and is a storm there is no reason why a US landfall could not Happen .. Very strong High aint going to let it go north IMO


Oh, I believe it has a very strong possibility to hit the US mainland. That is what I have maintained from the beginning. What I did write is that I expect a weakness in the ridge to begin moving it further north after it reaches the islands, which is one scenario. But right now I do not possibly see it moving into the Caribbean.
2517. FOREX
Quoting 2504. pensacolastorm:
Morning bloggers. Latest visible loop shows what looks like an eye for the not yet named TD4. I'm hoping for an unexpected and unlikely recurve to the north or a giant gulp of dry air.


Some bloggers are talking about a strenghthening Bermuda high while others are showing recurve cones of Earl. Confusing to me.
Quoting 2516. Grothar:


Oh, I believe it has a very strong possibility to hit the US mainland. That is what I have maintained from the beginning. What I did write is that I expect a weakness in the ridge to begin moving it further north after it reaches the islands, which is one scenario. But right now I do not possibly see it moving into the Caribbean.


ya it stays in the atlantic
Talk about false advertising.lol


This one is better suited..
I see a few storm go to a hurricane under 76 water temp before
down goes the Waltanater....down goes the Waltanater....
2522. Grothar
Quoting 2508. padirescu:


You're right Grothar... Since there isn't such a thing as a 26 mile marathon. :-)

They're all 26.2 miles and as a marathoner those last .2 really hurt.


I couldn't never dream of making it that extra .2 miles. So essentially I NEVER could run a 26 mile marathon.
Quoting 2453. washingtonian115:
Hmmm shows it having little land interaction and intensifying..Florida?.Lolol.
No thanks.
Quoting 2519. washingtonian115:
Talk about false advertising.lol


This one is better suited..


We have had rain in Pensacola EVERY DAY since July 3.
Dorian is amazing... haven't shown any hint of weakening even though it should be over cooler waters today and tomorrow. After that... I honestly believe Dorian could have a shot to become significant storm.

Quoting 2519. washingtonian115:
Talk about false advertising.lol


This one is better suited..

yeah anyway huh Wash do you understand the point I'm making
Quoting 2509. opal92nwf:
Kinda looks like an eye


It has lost weight since it emerge off Africa. Allowing it to deepen even with sst not supporting it. It still has a piece of energy to its east and south that will continually feed our system through those cool waters. After that it should really bulk up some and wrap that energy around it.
Quoting 2501. PalmBeachWeather:
Mik...Judging by the photo I would say you are around the corner from the Old Key Lime House (bridge construction) I lived up the road from you until 2 months ago on South Palmway, lake Worth... I now live in West Boynton


No kidding! We walked Dex up that way upon occasion. Boynton is nice too. Yep, just down the street from the Keylime. I'd like to talk the owner into putting a PWS there.

BTW, there's no rule against having a PWS located at a business, is there?
Remember how alarming Ike was for South Florida at one time?

Now the question is, will Dorian end up more North or South of it's forecasted track?
A straight NE jog and forming an eye.....and u.o.e.n.o it





ok maybe I'm just joking...
This is the scenario I've been putting on the table since about two weeks already. The Bermuda High is very strong this year and well into texas. Cape verdes will not find a way to turn north before getting dangerously close to the US. I see one of two scenarios happening here. Either it makes landfall on the East Coast or it crosses Florida and makes it into the Gulf. Whichever the case unfortunately for what I see I am concern about landfall, but as with everything in Nature there can be surprises, and it is still too far east for us to make any educated guesses. Nevertheless it is something worth watching.
Fresh ASCAT showing some struggle..Lastnight this was slightly tigher with hardly no convection..

Quoting 2526. Bluestorm5:
Dorian is amazing... haven't shown any hint of weakening even though it should be over cooler waters today and tomorrow. After that... I honestly believe Dorian could have a shot to become significant storm.



26C is right around the threshold for TS I think It has a great chance of holding itself together. Conditions has changed from when we were on the blog last nite.
Quoting 2529. mikatnight:


No kidding! We walked Dex up that way upon occasion. Boynton is nice too. Yep, just down the street from the Keylime. I'd like to talk the owner into putting a PWS there.

BTW, there's no rule against having a PWS located at a business, is there?


I love the old Key Lime! I love Kona Bay more though =)
2537. dabirds
Quoting 2485. SouthernIllinois:

Bet you really miss OLTL now since it's been off the air for two years. We're you a AMC fan too?
They were, would leave on after AMC, saw it while making lunch, had no class on Fri. one semester.

Had asked Fri., think you'd already signed off though, which lake is the Cove on? No luck googling.
Well got to head out now, but I guess when I get back we will have TS Dorian....
You all play nice and I'll be back in a little while

Have a Great Day
Taco :o)
ATCF classification of Dorian as a "straight shooter".

DORIAN, AL, L, , , , , 04, 2013, TS, S,

4.1 DESCRIPTIVE DATA

Note: Track type is a subjective classification of the storm as a straight mover, recurver, or odd mover. A straight storm path is one which maintained a somewhat constant heading between 250o - 360o. A storm is considered a recurver if it turned from an initial path toward the west or northwest to a path toward the northeast. An odd moving storm, therefore, is one which did not fit in the other two categories or contained loops in the track.
2540. 7544
Quoting 2373. congaline:
Wow! Look at Dorian! Looking goooood!


looks like its getting the S shape to it we all know what that means still a long way away tho
04L/TS/D/CX
Quoting 2532. CaneHunter031472:
This is the scenario I've been putting on the table since about two weeks already. The Bermuda High is very strong this year and well into texas. Cape verdes will not find a way to turn north before getting dangerously close to the US. I see one of two scenarios happening here. Either it makes landfall on the East Coast or it crosses Florida and makes it into the Gulf. Whichever the case unfortunately for what I see I am concern about landfall, but as with everything in Nature there can be surprises, and it is still too far east for us to make any educated guesses. Nevertheless it is something worth watching.


I would love for it to cross Florida and go into the Gulf. I need surf desperately!
Quoting 2527. wunderkidcayman:

yeah anyway huh Wash do you understand the point I'm making
So yout think this could be like Chantal part two?.
Quoting 2517. FOREX:


Some bloggers are talking about a strenghthening Bermuda high while others are showing recurve cones of Earl. Confusing to me.


Its the blog yoyo -- expect it to
swing a few thousand times before it lands!
Quoting 2519. washingtonian115:
Talk about false advertising.lol


This one is better suited..
Forgot this one :D

Quoting 2519. washingtonian115:
Talk about false advertising.lol


This one is better suited..

That top pictures is unreal. Coconut palms cannot survive in any location on the border between Florida and Alabama. They really are not able survive outside zone 10B, and the farthest north I've personally seen them is in the Melbourne/Cocoa Beach area near the coast.
2548. hydrus
Quoting 2531. GeorgiaStormz:
A straight NE jog and forming an eye.....and u.o.e.n.o it





ok maybe I'm just joking...

looking at the atlantic loop zoomed up on the storm that is actually I guess if you want to call it this "mid level eye" it is partially attached to the LLCOC but anyway on the loop it is collapsing and shift Westward instead of WNW like before
Dorian is official via NHC's Twitter feed.
At that time the NWS was saying a Cat 5 for S FL!
Quoting 2530. opal92nwf:
Remember how alarming Ike was for South Florida at one time?

Now the question is, will Dorian end up more North or South of it's forecasted track?
2552. LargoFl
I guess its time we in florida wake up and take notice huh..in some way this storm will affect us huh..and if it Does cross florida whew..with our rain soaked soils and full lakes and stream..we do NOT need this right now
Quoting 2531. GeorgiaStormz:
A straight NE jog and forming an eye.....and u.o.e.n.o it





ok maybe I'm just joking...

Yeah well it's going nowhere to the north fast with that high.
Quoting 2542. boltdwright:


I would love for it to cross Florida and go into the Gulf. I need surf desperately!


Not a good scenario with Lake Okeechobee already at 15.5 ft. level. They have already taken enough water out of lake to poison two main estuaries---just a threat will cause them to release a lot of water and damage ecosystem further. Unfortunately, if not this one, set up does not look good for South Florida in 2013!
2555. SLU
Dorian starting to wrap its spiral bands now. 50mph might be a little conservative.

12z NAM really wraps up our GA disturbance south of Nantucket, MA perhaps hybrid in nature, not fully tropical or non tropical.
You want all kinds of weather? Come down to Florida where you get Sun, Rain, T-Storms, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, & Snow.
Quoting 2533. Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT showing some struggle..Lastnight this was slightly tigher with hardly no convection..



That maybe very misleading. It has only tighten up significantly since last night and satellite imagery showing some spiral banding on the south and east sides. The more detailed ASCAT pass earlier suggest tighter strengthening circulation. Regardless its now 50 mph.
This made me laugh while looking up other hurricane images
Quoting 2551. SFLWeatherman:
At that time the NWS was saying a Cat 5 for S FL!


I remember well! Thought we were getting slammed by a cat 4. Was actually scared that time.
2561. Relix
Getting near the 15N line. I expect 150+ miles North of PR with minimal impact for us here. I see it pretty hard for it to hit us especially since it seems to be getting stronger. Not worried at the moment but definitely keeping an eye. This "negativism" has bit me in the place with no sun before... Irene and Earl getting very close are one example.
Dorian, like the fruit? that's an interesting name
Quoting 2555. SLU:
Dorian starting to wrap its spiral bands now. 50mph might be a little conservative.

Eye or dry spot? I guess we will find out in the 11am advisory.
Quoting 2557. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You want all kinds of weather? Come down to Florida where you get Sun, Rain, T-Storms, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, & Snow.


And strobe like lightening!
Quoting 2543. washingtonian115:
So yout think this could be like Chantal part two?.

yeah it could but getting to my point it is still too far out and anything can happen even the most odd of things

Quoting 2555. SLU:
Dorian starting to wrap its spiral bands now. 50mph might be a little conservative.

Is that a eye I see poking through?..

Wunderkidcayman I want you to delete that comment..
Quoting 2554. HoraceDebussyJones:


Not a good scenario with Lake Okeechobee already at 15.5 ft. level. They have already taken enough water out of lake to poison two main estuaries---just a threat will cause them to release a lot of water and damage ecosystem further. Unfortunately, if not this one, set up does not look good for South Florida in 2013!


I well say one thing. The unspeakable truth is there is no assurance the levees will hold if a heavy soaking hurricane were to impact Lake O. I cringe when I take Rt 441 to Okeechobee City and look at the sloping levees. Triple YIKES!!!
At day 5 won't this be in Herbert's Box?
Im thinking 40mph at 11AM.

My two cents.
Quoting 2567. rmbjoe1954:


I well say one thing. The unspeakable truth is there is no assurance the levees will hold if a heavy soaking hurricane were to impact Lake O. I cringe when I take Rt 441 to Okeechobee City and look at the sloping levees. Triple YIKES!!!


What happens if the levees break? Which might be a good possibility this year.
Any word of doc putting up a new blog post
Quoting 2567. rmbjoe1954:


I well say one thing. The unspeakable truth is there is no assurance the levees will hold if a heavy soaking hurricane were to impact Lake O. I cringe when I take Rt 441 to Okeechobee City and look at the sloping levees. Triple YIKES!!!


At current levels they are now doing weekly inspections though I don't have confidence they would have time to fix issues should they find them. Unfortunately, they will have to get to a much lower level should there be a serious threat.

Satch
2573. 7544
Quoting 2569. SPLbeater:
Im thinking 40mph at 11AM.

My two cents.


looks like 50 mph at 11 am to me place your bets ;lol i said it first
2574. SLU
Quoting 2563. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Eye or dry spot? I guess we will find out in the 11am advisory.


Well I'll tread carefully and call it an eye-like feature until we get a good microwave pass.
Quoting 2555. SLU:
Dorian starting to wrap its spiral bands now. 50mph might be a little conservative.

and the one over Africa is getting a cyclonic turning going as well we may be going into launch mode here


hmmmmm
07/24/2013 Daily Update - GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation

Features music by Jeff Lynne from his new album "Mr. Blue Sky - The Very Best of ELO"


Quoting 2498. boltdwright:


Yes, and the thing we are referring to comes from the NHC. The NHC has clearly labeled this Dorian.
Link
Wow. It may be named in a software tool but it doesn't make it official. The data may be accurate, but the people at the NHC are the ones that make the official announcement to the public. That is what I am referring to.
2578. LargoFl
Tropical Storm DORIAN
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 24, 2013:

Location: 14.0°N 29.0°W
Maximum Winds: 45 kt Gusts: 55 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
2579. SLU
Quoting 2566. washingtonian115:
Is that a eye I see poking through?..

Wunderkidcayman I want you to delete that comment..


If it is still there by 18z then it's probably an eye....
Official... NHC Twitter. "Tropical Storm Dorian advisory 2 issued. Fourth named storm of the 2013 season forms.
Quoting 2519. washingtonian115:
Talk about false advertising.lol


This one is better suited..
91.5 million visitors last year.
I was VERY conservative I see..

000
WTNT24 KNHC 241425
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1500 UTC WED JUL 24 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 29.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 29.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 29.0W
Quoting 2570. SecretStormNerd:


What happens if the levees break? Which might be a good possibility this year.


Look back to 1928!
Do we know the forward speed of  Dorian yet?
Quoting 2568. SecretStormNerd:
At day 5 won't this be in Herbert's Box?
Likely, but it could go north of it. I'm not a big believer in Herbert's Box as storms had hit Florida even though it missed the box or storms not hitting Florida even though it went through the box.
NHC site just confirmed TS Dorian. BUT they have not updated the info yet. Should come with the in 15 minutes.
Dorian is amazing storm lets hope is not going to hit the hot water next to the east coast
2588. SLU
Quoting 2575. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and the one over Africa is getting a cyclonic turning going as well we may be going into launch mode here


hmmmmm


The Cape Verde season is open for business.
Quoting 2572. HoraceDebussyJones:


At current levels they are now doing weekly inspections though I don't have confidence they would have time to fix issues should they find them. Unfortunately, they will have to get to a much lower level should there be a serious threat.

Satch


Aren't they releasing large amounts of water into both rivers out of "O"
2590. FOREX
Quoting 2573. 7544:


looks like 50 mph at 11 am to me place your bets ;lol


50
Quoting 2571. JTDailyUpdate:
Any word of doc putting up a new post
soon waiting on the NHC
Quoting 2584. fireflymom:
Do we know the forward speed of  Dorian yet?


WNW at 18 knots...moving pretty good to me.
I imagine Dr M is waiting for full advisory from NHC.
2594. Grothar
Quoting 2555. SLU:
Dorian starting to wrap its spiral bands now. 50mph might be a little conservative.

I see the bands to the south haven't wrapped around yet... some of us thought it would do it overnight.
Quoting 2557. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You want all kinds of weather? Come down to Florida where you get Sun, Rain, T-Storms, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, & Snow.


this is what we really get;



and the new storm will just make things worse.
2597. FOREX
Quoting 2588. SLU:


The Cape Verde season is open for business.


Taz makes that call.
2598. SLU
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 29.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and the one over Africa is getting a cyclonic turning going as well we may be going into launch mode here


hmmmmm


Yeah, that could very well become Erin... We are go for launch for the 2013 Hurricane season. Strap yourselves in and hold on tight, it's going to be a bumpy ride. I have everyone over there in my prayers. Good luck and I'll see everyone intact on the other size, Just keep your head down and be prepared.

Quoting 2575. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and the one over Africa is getting a cyclonic turning going as well we may be going into launch mode here


hmmmmm
Been saying for a while MJO coming back to the Atlantic by August will support a vigorous TW that comes off Africa. Atlantic is about to turn on the switch.
2601. SLU
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.0N 32.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
Quoting 2589. whitewabit:


Aren't they releasing large amounts of water into both rivers out of "O"


Have been for weeks----estuaries already have had way too much fresh water pumped in. Quite a bad situation.
2603. Grothar
Quoting 2573. 7544:


looks like 50 mph at 11 am to me place your bets ;lol i said it first


10 to 1 says you could get in trouble for betting on here.
For how much dry air is close by, the outflow on Dorian is looking pretty impressive.
Quoting 2554. HoraceDebussyJones:


Not a good scenario with Lake Okeechobee already at 15.5 ft. level. They have already taken enough water out of lake to poison two main estuaries---just a threat will cause them to release a lot of water and damage ecosystem further. Unfortunately, if not this one, set up does not look good for South Florida in 2013!


another thing is we don't need a hurricane in the GOM with all the rain we have had lately all our trees will be up rooted. About like When George came thru I lost my Apple trees and other fruit trees because the soil is so wet, they just fall over.

sheri
Quoting 2585. Bluestorm5:
Likely, but it could go north of it. I'm not a big believer in Herbert's Box as storms had hit Florida even though it missed the box or storms not hitting Florida even though it went through the box.


Yes, that is true. It's ok, I bought a bunch of crayons to light when the power goes out lol and a new tent for the kids.
forward speed 18KT needs to slow to about 13 14 KT
Quoting 2566. washingtonian115:
Is that a eye I see poking through?..

Wunderkidcayman I want you to delete that comment..

which one is that now

Da latest model runs:





Quoting 2567. rmbjoe1954:


I well say one thing. The unspeakable truth is there is no assurance the levees will hold if a heavy soaking hurricane were to impact Lake O. I cringe when I take Rt 441 to Okeechobee City and look at the sloping levees. Triple YIKES!!!


I lived in Okeechobee for many years. One of my homes sat right across the rim canal from the dike. It always was in my thoughts as storms approached us. However I don't ever recall the lake being full in the years I lived there. We shall have to wait to see where this storm goes. It's way to early to get concerned, just be aware of it. Of course I'm in Colorado right now so it's not an issue here!
2611. hydrus
Quoting 2575. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and the one over Africa is getting a cyclonic turning going as well we may be going into launch mode here


hmmmmm
HWRF had that as a potent system Yesterday..Not so much today..I believe that will change tho..



Quoting 2605. catastropheadjuster:


another thing is we don't need a hurricane in the GOM with all the rain we have had lately all our trees will be up rooted. About like When George came thru I lost my Apple trees and other fruit trees because the soil is so wet, they just fall over.

sheri

Oh no. Oh no. Just no. OMG. SO sorry about your apple trees. OH man.

Natalie
I told S.Florida they needed to watch out for a T.C rather that be Dorian or some other one.But they have been very wet later and wet patterns can lead to bigger problems down the road.
2614. LargoFl
GFS really wants dorian going into the gulf..thats bad news
2615. VR46L
Gosh Was it 2010 had Julia and Igor at the same time

looky looky

2616. Dakster
Quoting 2603. Grothar:


10 to 1 says you could get in trouble for betting on here.


I'll take that bet.
During Chantal NOAA Hurricane Hunters were sent to the islands as a 'forward base'. I understand Dorian is only an hour old, any idea when or if they may be deployed again? Pat, any thoughts?
2618. tkeith
Quoting Grothar:


10 to 1 says you could get in trouble for betting on here.
I'll take those odds :)
Current conditions Down Town Miami
Link
Quoting 2608. wunderkidcayman:

which one is that now

The one where you said i was a big fool...
3 tropical storms have formed south of 23.5 N before august, a rare occurrence indeed... speaks volumes for the atmospheric conditions compared to normal, interesting year ahead!

Quoting 2604. CarolinaHurricanes87:
For how much dry air is close by, the outflow on Dorian is looking pretty impressive.



I say its trying to wrap the piece of energy on the southern side.



That image is unsettling as the MJO comes back and limited SAL the next storm after Dorian may blow up.
this went to 35 mph to 50 mph in five hours!! wow!! now its a tropical storm with winds 50 mph that fast
new satellite floater images should be coming in 30 mins time
11AM Ensemble shows recurves.

NHC issuing advisories on TS DORIAN
Quoting 2603. Grothar:


10 to 1 says you could get in trouble for betting on here.


oh I bet
2628. tkeith
2617. MonsterTrough 9:47 AM CDT on July 24, 2013

Not positive but I think 55W is the threshhold
Quoting 2570. SecretStormNerd:


What happens if the levees break? Which might be a good possibility this year.


evacuation plans for those south of Okeechobee Lake are being discussed.. but, unfortunately, not by those who have the power to order it.

a quote from one of my friends;

The wet season is not very significant anymore as the dry season now has been very wet too.

The greatest significance is when will areas around Lake Okeechobee be evacuated -- that is not specified in any of the emergency plans or anywhere that I have seen.

From the engineering analysis done years ago (after the Bromwell review) evacuation would be required at 17.5 feet, for sure.

My gut feeling is by 16.5 feet, an emergency would be declared. /quote
92L is being reincarnated into all these waves and is waiting for the right one to come and pay a visit to the NHC...
2631. Mclem1
Quoting 2614. LargoFl:
GFS really wants dorian going into the gulf..thats bad news

If there's one thing I know about the GFS is that it tends to be a pathological liar.

...See what I did there?
Quoting 2625. unknowncomic:
11AM Ensemble shows recurves.



The ensemble coming close to the NC coast is too close for comfort! Another couple hundred miles would be quite alright..
Quoting 2617. MonsterTrough:
During Chantal NOAA Hurricane Hunters were sent to the islands as a 'forward base'. I understand Dorian is only an hour old, any idea when or if they may be deployed again? Pat, any thoughts?
I think storm got to be past 55 W, I believe.
BUY ME THESE SHOES!!!!!!

2635. hydrus
Quoting 2603. Grothar:


10 to 1 says you could get in trouble for betting on here.
I joked about it a while ago..I had to..It was funny with all the bantering going on about Chantal...Good morning Gro.
2636. LargoFl
Quoting 2632. SPLbeater:


The ensemble coming close to the NC coast is too close for comfort! Another couple hundred miles would be quite alright..
You're inland...
Quoting 2623. hurricanes2018:
this went to 35 mph to 50 mph in five hours!! wow!! now its a tropical storm with winds 50 mph that fast


Yea I know! a lot of changed in 5 hours. Itching to see the new cone.
4/0/0
Tropical Storm Dorian
...FOURTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2013 SEASON FORMS...
11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 24
Location: 14.3°N 29.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
2640. tkeith
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Yea I know! a lot of changed in 5 hours. Itching to see the new cone.
and a new blog by the doc...



remember wind speeds are shown in KM PER HOUR
...FOURTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2013 SEASON FORMS...

11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 24
Location: 14.3°N 29.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Quoting 2637. Bluestorm5:
You're inland, right...


Bout 115 miles. Yup.
2644. Dakster
Remember that NHC intensity forecasts are off by as much as 2 categories either way.
Quoting 2639. GTstormChaserCaleb:
4/0/0
Tropical Storm Dorian
...FOURTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2013 SEASON FORMS...
11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 24
Location: 14.3°N 29.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph


beat me to it.
2646. StormWx
A break in the ridge would be great, and allow Dorian to recurve out to sea. Some of the ensemble runs are showing this.
2647. Grothar
The high is expected to build back in making Dorian move in a more westerly direction after it reaches near the Northern Antilles. There is still the possibilty of the high retreating slightly in a few day.s
Quoting 2634. GeorgiaStormz:
BUY ME THESE SHOES!!!!!!

Kevin Durant like to have weather patterns on his shoes. Pretty neat.

Quoting 2620. washingtonian115:
The one where you said i was a big fool...

ok but before I do let me clear this up I did not say I made you a fool I said by what you said is making you sound like a fool now I know your not really a fool but by the thing you say it makes you sound like one for example what you said that I had mad that response to
anyway ok I'll kill that comment now
No hurricane yet... on the 5 day end

2651. Dakster
Quoting 2647. Grothar:
The high is expected to build back in making Dorian move in a more westerly direction after it reaches near the Northern Antilles. There is still the possibilty of the high retreating slightly in a few day.s


Is there a lot of THC in the area?
As I mentioned earlier in this blog, it is high time a team of mets, storm chasers, video producers and mariners take to the sea and start tracking these storms while they are still well out at sea...and LIVE BROADCAST as they follow the storm.

It would have been AWESOME to see Dorian ramp up this morning from a wave to a tropical storm.
Quoting 2643. SPLbeater:


Bout 115 miles. Yup.
Sanford, right? You shouldn't worry about any storm unless we got Category 4 or 5 into Myrtle Beach.
Shows him getting to 60mph.NHC didn't expect this burst of intensification and neither did I.
Quoting 2634. GeorgiaStormz:
BUY ME THESE SHOES!!!!!!



lol, really?
Quoting 2648. Bluestorm5:
Kevin Durant like to have weather patterns on his shoes. Pretty neat.

Quoting 2648. Bluestorm5:
Kevin Durant like to have weather patterns on his shoes. Pretty neat.



These were his original ones, but all the one's I see are almost $1000 now




anyway back on topic.
Portlight Honored with 1 WTC Flag

Chairman Paul Timmons and New Jersey Portlight Volunteers received a Letter of Appreciation and a Flag that flew over the New WTC 1 in New York Monday morning as a token of their State's appreciation of the work done Post Sandy by Portlight and it's volunteers.
Quoting 2639. GTstormChaserCaleb:
4/0/0
Tropical Storm Dorian
...FOURTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2013 SEASON FORMS...
11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 24
Location: 14.3°N 29.9°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph


waiting for new satellite data to confirm
50 mph now!
98L when I went to bed, 50mph Dorian when I wake up. This season sure is something.
Quoting 2654. washingtonian115:
Shows him getting to 60mph.NHC didn't expect this burst of intensification and neither did I.

Now it seems the doubt whether it will survive the cooler SSts and stable air is gone by the NHC in these 48 hours.
Quoting 2660. yonzabam:
50 mph now!

I thought it was supposed to go poof like you said before. LOL

Natalie
jump up to 50 mph
Quoting 2630. washingtonian115:
Karen is being reincarnated into all these waves and is waiting for the right one to come and pay a visit to the NHC...


Fixed it for ya.
2666. Grothar
Quoting 2651. Dakster:


Is there a lot of THC in the area?


Yes.
Quoting 2653. Bluestorm5:
Sanford, right? You shouldn't worry about any storm unless we got Category 4 or 5 into Myrtle Beach.


I didnt say I was worried about it, because I caint change what happens. Irene was a cat 1(a large one) and we had gusty winds...and if we get another inch or few inches of rain, along with gusty winds, these oak trees will come down like dominoes. Prices also go up, so dont say inland areas aint affected.
Quoting 2659. wunderkidcayman:


waiting for new satellite data to confirm
Confirm what?
Quoting 2647. Grothar:
The high is expected to build back in making Dorian move in a more westerly direction after it reaches near the Northern Antilles. There is still the possibilty of the high retreating slightly in a few day.s


The high will be a big problem this year because of it's intensity. I don't see many fish storms (if any) happening. I wonder if there is any similarity between this year's High and 2005.
2670. Mclem1
:::Knows better than to post anything witty or important on a blog that is sure to be updated in mere moments...:::
NWS have it going back down to 45 MPH?
2672. LargoFl
Dorian is coming into view now
Quoting 2519. washingtonian115:
Talk about false advertising.lol


This one is better suited..


How about New Jersey being called "the Garden State"? The pollution there will kill your lungs in about three seconds! the only thing that grows in NJ is toxic waste! And rude people.
2674. Dakster
Quoting 2666. Grothar:


Yes.


That explains why the high is building back in.
2675. hydrus
Quoting 2568. SecretStormNerd:
At day 5 won't this be in Herbert's Box?
Too far out to say with certainty.
Quoting 2614. LargoFl:
GFS really wants dorian going into the gulf..thats bad news

If it goes any farther south it could be another Hispaniola dilemma....
2677. Grothar
Why are they late with the advisories?
Quoting 2673. NYtampagirl:


How about New Jersey being called "the Garden State"? The pollution there will kill your lungs in about three seconds! the only thing that grows in NJ is toxic waste! And rude people.


You need to get off the Turnpike honey to see the real Jersey
2679. 7544
anyone think dorian will be a hurricane before reaching the islands i do !
Quoting 2676. opal92nwf:

If it goes any farther south it could be another Hispaniola dilemma....


On one hand, I want that to occur to kill the storm and maybe spare the US. But on the other hand...those people down there cant always escape the mudslides...and they certainly dont have much money for repairs.

Recurvature, I pray for!
Quoting 2669. CaneHunter031472:


The high will be a big problem this year because of it's intensity. I don't see many fish storms (if any) happening. I wonder if there is any similarity between this year's High and 2005.


This long loop shows that big high building in strong.

Now...will it stay this strong for the upcoming week?

Quoting 2589. whitewabit:


Aren't they releasing large amounts of water into both rivers out of "O"


yes, but the bottom line is that it can fill faster than they can drain it...
2683. Dakster
Quoting 2678. HoraceDebussyJones:


You need to get off the Turnpike honey to see the real Jersey


Does it smell better OFF the turnpike?
Judging by the high, missing Hatteras and Cape Cod seem unlikely, but things can change
Quoting 2665. CybrTeddy:


Fixed it for ya.
Lol.She'll be coming later in the season to pay a visit to the bloggers here.
2686. Grothar
Quoting 2669. CaneHunter031472:


The high will be a big problem this year because of it's intensity. I don't see many fish storms (if any) happening. I wonder if there is any similarity between this year's High and 2005.


Yes there is. The high was expected to build back in strongly from reports at least 5 days ago. I would expect a lot of these storms to possible be Caribbeantrackers or at least remain on very WNW to West tracks.
Quoting 2673. NYtampagirl:


How about New Jersey being called "the Garden State"? The pollution there will kill your lungs in about three seconds! the only thing that grows in NJ is toxic waste! And rude people.

Whoa there! Have you ever visited the western half of the state. Check it out sometime if you ever get the chance.

Natalie

Quoting 2577. Waltanater:
Wow. It may be named in a software tool but it doesn't make it official. The data may be accurate, but the people at the NHC are the ones that make the official announcement to the public. That is what I am referring to.


Do you not see that the link has NHC in it? Do you also see that in the first few lines it says NHC clearly?

It might not show up on NHC's main site, but if it is viewable information that the Public can see, it will be official information. Can't make this anymore clear lol.
Quoting 2678. HoraceDebussyJones:


You need to get off the Turnpike honey to see the real Jersey

Horace!!!! Right on!
Quoting 2677. Grothar:
Why are they late with the advisories?


waiting for new dr masters blog? haha
Quoting 2625. unknowncomic:
11AM Ensemble shows recurves.



In the best case scenario this will play out. The problem is the ensembles will change every day trending left then trending right. We just hope for the best and hopefully Dorian won't become a hurricane down the road.




Just hours after Tropical Depression 4 formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean off the African coast, the system was upgraded to a tropical storm Wednesday morning.

Tropical Storm Dorian is more than 3,000 miles away from the Tampa Bay area, and many things could keep it from becoming a threat to the Caribbean Sea, Bahamas or Florida, Bay News 9 meteorologist Juli Marquez said.
"It's something we will watch for a while," she said.

The storm has sustained winds of 50 mph and has strengthened and become better organized in recent hours. It's centered about 310 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, off the coast of west Africa, and is moving west-northwest at 21 mph.

It's expected to move west-northwest for several days.

"There's a big area of high pressure that's very strong," Marquez said. "Basically, it just kind of steers it (west-northwest). It's a long way from Tampa Bay, but it's going to move in this direction and could strengthen a little tonight or tomorrow. It will encounter some cooler waters, a little drier air that it will have to battle.

"The forecast shows it perhaps heading toward the Caribbean, maybe the Bahamas, but that's not until early next week.

Dorian is the fourth named storm of the season.

Link
2693. hydrus
Quoting 2650. Hurricanes305:
No hurricane yet... on the 5 day end

I am surprised they have it at storm strength for 5 days straight. Cannot see the storm here, but the predicted track is there.




Quoting 2674. Dakster:


That explains why the high is building back in.





I got it
2695. junie1
dorian will come to close to me for comfort any shift takes it over the northen islands
...
2697. K8eCane
everyone on this blog should know that Dorian is too far away for accuracy right now as to track or strength really
Regardless of the retreat of SAL ahead of Dorian, he is still crossing a very dry and stable Atlantic at the moment so he will have to continue and build moisture and convection on his own for the next several days.

Too far out to know what will happen at the end of the current period but his best chances for real intensification might be as he approaches the Bahamas.

Not suggesting that it will happen but just noting the possibilities..........It's going to boil down to how the sheer is looking North of Puerto Rico when he gets there.
2699. Grothar
It looks like 98L/Dorian made quite a turn to thw WNW last night. It should be resuming a much more westward movement later


Quoting 2668. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Confirm what?

You will see

Quoting 2672. LargoFl:
Dorian is coming into view now

yep hopefully SSD will now fix the floater images properly

hey wash wow the blog is moving fast I had to get trough nearly 4 pages to look for that comment you wanted me to fix anyway most of the comment was still valid and we "blog legal" so this is what remains

Quoting 2476. washingtonian115:
Wunderkid I hate to put you down but this isn't headed for the Caymans.Sorry just isn't in Dorian's future..

lol your not PART OF COMMENT REMOVED BY WUNDERKIDCAYMAN I never said it was heading for cayman hell I never even mention the W Caribbean

I said what I said to make a point now wash PART OF COMMENT REMOVED BY WUNDERKIDCAYMAN can you figure out the point I'm making

I hope you can handle this comment
Quoting 2697. K8eCane:
everyone on this blog should know that Dorian is too far away for accuracy right now as to track or strength really


but whats the fun if you don't start guessing now:)
freshwater florida drains really slow. watching dorian
The NHC is holding up the advisory, this one should be well detailed I would assume.
Quoting 2680. SPLbeater:


On one hand, I want that to occur to kill the storm and maybe spare the US. But on the other hand...those people down there cant always escape the mudslides...and they certainly dont have much money for repairs.

Recurvature, I pray for!

I guess your prayers have been working the last 4 years...
Microwave imagery says Dorian was forming a banding eyewall at 8am EDT. So yes, that feature on satellite is probably the beginnings of an eye.

WOW! From 35mph to 50mph with gusts up to 60! That is fast intensification. I wonder if it will make it to the SE US. If it intensifies more it should survive the dry air and moderate wind shear.
2707. K8eCane
Quoting 2701. weatherh98:


but whats the fun if you don't start guessing now:)



key word is guess. Although on this blog there are a lot of EDUCATED guesses. I listen to those
Quoting 2697. K8eCane:
everyone on this blog should know that Dorian is too far away for accuracy right now as to track or strength really
Track is pretty much easy to forecast for next 5 days... after that? Dunno. Strength wise... that'll be interesting.
this is cool nasa is going to deploy drones to film the storms. story on yahoo
2710. Gearsts
lol
ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DORIAN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A 38-KT ASCAT SURFACE WIND AT
1111Z... AND VARIOUS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
ABOUT 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18 KT. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
THIS TRACK SCENARIO...WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SLIGHT
VARIATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN.

FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
VERY LOW WHILE DORIAN REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. HOWEVER...
DURING THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...DORIAN WILL BE MOVING OVER 25C
SSTS...WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FAVORABLE EQUATORIAL INFLOW OF
WARM UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS OFFSETTING THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR
BEING INGESTED FROM THE NORTH...AND THAT COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS
OF DORIAN PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS. FOR THAT REASON...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 36- AND 48-HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER BOTH WARMER WATER
AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD
STEADY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE HIGHER
INITIAL INTENSITY...BUT THEN FOLLOWS THE TREND OF CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 14.3N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.0N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 15.8N 36.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 16.4N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.1N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 18.3N 51.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 19.3N 58.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 20.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN
wow!! what is going on here with the east coast all in blue
Is the NHC saying Dorian is as good as he's going to get?



Traveling at 21mph.
Our technology for storms have since improved from 1992..I'm glad..I wish I grew up with all these fancy graphs and charts these kids have now a days.
Again, Dorian will go into unfavorable SST. 26 Celsius or higher is needed for storm to strengthen. Dorian won't have that for awhile.

2717. LargoFl
2718. hydrus
Quoting 2658. Portlight:
Portlight Honored with 1 WTC Flag

Chairman Paul Timmons and New Jersey Portlight Volunteers received a Letter of Appreciation and a Flag that flew over the New WTC 1 in New York Monday morning as a token of their State's appreciation of the work done Post Sandy by Portlight and it's volunteers.
What a great thing...Portlight deserves such an honor for helping so many in terrible conditions.
2719. Dakster
Quoting 2702. islander101010:
freshwater florida drains really slow. watching dorian


It doesn't really drain, more like percolates.
Quoting floridaT:
this is cool nasa is going to deploy drones to film the storms. story on yahoo


Here is a NASA G+ on it.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

...FOURTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2013 SEASON FORMS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 29.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN
THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.9 WEST. DORIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL WEAKENING ON THURSDAY AS DORIAN MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting 2713. AussieStorm:
Is the NHC saying Dorian is as good as he's going to get?



Traveling at 21mph.


Kind of unusual knowing that it already surpassed the 5 am forecast peak intensity of 45 mph. It is already a 50 mph storm. I have a feeling that Dorian might have a few more tricks up her sleeve.
2723. Dakster
Quoting 2714. washingtonian115:
Our technology for storms have since improved from 1992..I'm glad..I wish I grew up with all these fancy graphs and charts these kids have now a days.


How do you think Grothar feels? He grew up before fire was invented.
(I moved this comment)

Wow, oh my goodness...The opening of the segment on the Weather Channel is BREAKING NEWS 4th Storm of the Season Tropical Storm Dorian will it threaten the US?

Now I am not dissing them for thinking it could eventually impact the US and for advertising that, but this is such a contrast to how people treated storms in years past such as hurricane Andrew in 1992. Watch how they actually don't say out loud that Andrew could hit South Florida in this clip. Even when it is 615 miles from Miami and heading due West, he uses general terms like "it will be in our neighborhood"...Amazing how times have changed. It's just a simple media technique to get people latched on to a storm thousands of miles away so that they will watch that television station.
img src="">
2725. hydrus
Quoting 2716. Bluestorm5:
Again, Dorian will go into unfavorable SST. 26 Celsius or higher is needed for storm to strengthen. Dorian won't have that for awhile.

That is why I was surprised that they had it at storm strength all the way across the Atlantic.
"Dorion" is trending on twitter.....

No it's not Dorian misspelled, it's completely different.
Quoting 2716. Bluestorm5:
Again, Dorian will go into unfavorable SST. 26 Celsius or higher is needed for storm to strengthen. Dorian won't have that for awhile.

Even though I do despise this storm for acquiring the name Dorian in past events we have seen storms intensify over pretty below average waters..like Grace 2009,Ida 2009(In the gulf while sst were in the lower 70's and upper 60's)..Chris 2012.
I do not see it going back down to 45MPH at all
2729. LargoFl
if that storm comes anywhere near florida the tree removal services are going to be making the big bucks huh..and imagine the rivers,lakes and streams..imagine..10-12 inches of MORE rain coming...and..we ALSO have that frontal system moving into florida just about the same time............this is not a good scenerio shaping up for soaking wet florida
Quoting 2725. hydrus:
That is why I was surprised that they had it at storm strength all the way across the Atlantic.
NHC weakened it from 60 mph to 45 mph.
its going up!! need to watch the east coast!
Quoting 2678. HoraceDebussyJones:


You need to get off the Turnpike honey to see the real Jersey


My dear,I lived NJ for over 50 years. You can cut the pollution with a knife on hot summer days, especially in urban areas such as Camden. The air on the horizon is actually brown some days. It's a struggle to breathe. Pediatric asthma is rampant in places like Camden, NJ. I'll take tropical Florida downpours any day-we have virtually no ozone alert days in Tampa compared to Camden/Philly. Global warming is for real.
2733. Dakster
Quoting 2729. LargoFl:
if that storm comes anywhere near florida the tree removal services are going to be making the big bucks huh..and imagine the rivers,lakes and streams..imagine..10-12 inches of MORE rain coming...and..we ALSO have that frontal system moving into florida just about the same time............this is not a good scenerio shaping up for soaking wet florida


Only because of all the non-native trees that are here now.

Quoting 2724. opal92nwf:
(I moved this comment)

Wow, oh my goodness...The opening of the segment on the Weather Channel is BREAKING NEWS 4th Storm of the Season Tropical Storm Dorian will it threaten the US?

Now I am not dissing them for thinking it could eventually impact the US and for advertising that, but this is such a contrast to how people treated storms in years past such as hurricane Andrew in 1992. Watch how they actually don't say out loud that Andrew could hit South Florida in this clip. Even when it is 615 miles from Miami and heading due West, he uses general terms like "it will be in our neighborhood"...Amazing how times have changed. It's just a simple media technique to get people latched on to a storm thousands of miles away so that they will watch that television station.
img src="">


They really are irresponsible.
Just remember how difficult it is to predict intensity for tropical cyclones, especially ones as small as Dorian. Here's the first advisory forecast for Major Hurricane Michael last year.

INIT 03/2100Z 25.6N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.8N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 26.4N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 27.3N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 28.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 28.5N 44.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
I'm not quite sure that we'll have this, but I expect a similar track for a certain extent. (until it reaches the island maybe)

And sorry if I annoyed people with that above comment, I just felt like no one would see it on the end of the last page, and I put a lot of thought into it. (:
2737. Patrap
Current forecast discussion illustrates why "all" of the relevant factors have to click at the same time to achieve significant intensification.......NHC seems to think that moderate sheer in the short-term might off-set the slightly cooler SST's.

It's one big balancing act between Sal/SST's/and Sheer for any given storm at any given time during it's lifespan........Like a stack of dominos; some storms can overcome some issues and some cannot recover once a significant factor topples over.
2739. LargoFl
Quoting 2712. hurricanes2018:
wow!! what is going on here with the east coast all in blue


That is going to be a formidable storm this weekend. Watch for a strong Nor'easter possibly transitioning to a tropical entity as it heads up the east coast. This bears more watching than Dorian I believe.

Link
Quoting 2724. opal92nwf:
(I moved this comment)

Wow, oh my goodness...The opening of the segment on the Weather Channel is BREAKING NEWS 4th Storm of the Season Tropical Storm Dorian will it threaten the US?

Now I am not dissing them for thinking it could eventually impact the US and for advertising that, but this is such a contrast to how people treated storms in years past such as hurricane Andrew in 1992. Watch how they actually don't say out loud that Andrew could hit South Florida in this clip. Even when it is 615 miles from Miami and heading due West, he uses general terms like "it will be in our neighborhood"...Amazing how times have changed. It's just a simple media technique to get people latched on to a storm thousands of miles away so that they will watch that television station.
img src="">


you would have to understand .. in 1992 at 600 mile out they did not know where it was going !! so saying our neighborhood is not far off ..
With the Microwave pass from earlier showing a forming eye wall and this statement made by Stewart, "MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY" there is a chance we could have our first hurricane of the season if current trends in organization continue.
Quoting 2735. CybrTeddy:
Just remember how difficult it is to predict intensity for tropical cyclones, especially ones as small as Dorian. Here's the first advisory forecast for Major Hurricane Michael last year.

INIT 03/2100Z 25.6N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.8N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 26.4N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 27.3N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 28.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 28.5N 44.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Yeah we all know how that turned out..


purely talking track. not intensity or timeline just track
2745. SLU
OF NOTE:

Operationally speaking, the formation of TS Dorian at 29.9W makes it the 4th furthest east that a TS has ever formed in the Atlantic before August 1st since 1851. The most recent one being MH Bertha 2008.

2746. Dakster
Quoting 2740. Chucktown:


That is going to be a formidable storm this weekend. Watch for a strong Nor'easter possibly transitioning to a tropical entity as it heads up the east coast. This bears more watching than Dorian I believe.

Link


Yuck... I guess so.
Canadian GEM hi res develops a weak STS off the NJ coast by Friday morning. I've seen this happen before with similar set-ups. Lots "o" instability and from time to time the convective feedback is real.

Link
2748. Patrap
Quoting 2740. Chucktown:


That is going to be a formidable storm this weekend. Watch for a strong Nor'easter possibly transitioning to a tropical entity as it heads up the east coast. This bears more watching than Dorian I believe.

Link


The actual energy for that possible scenario is now here ironically.



Quoting 2589. whitewabit:


Aren't they releasing large amounts of water into both rivers out of "O"
Big time, this would be terrible for the lake and all of the estuaries they are dumping into.
Quoting 2735. CybrTeddy:
Just remember how difficult it is to predict intensity for tropical cyclones, especially ones as small as Dorian. Here's the first advisory forecast for Major Hurricane Michael last year.

INIT 03/2100Z 25.6N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.8N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 26.4N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 27.3N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 28.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 28.5N 44.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Intensity forecasts are always the most difficult to forecast, when you have the usually reliable LGEM peaking at near Cat 2 in 5 days it bears close watching.
Quoting 2741. whitewabit:


you would have to understand .. in 1992 at 600 mile out they did not know where it was going !! so saying our neighborhood is not far off ..

Yeah, well we all know that they were more, shall we say, Calm, Cool, and Collected about storms back then. That is the point I'm trying to make.
Quoting 2745. SLU:
OF NOTE:

Operationally speaking, the formation of TS Dorian at 29.9W makes it the 4th furthest east that a TS has ever formed in the Atlantic before August 1st. The most recent one being MH Bertha.



Which would normally signal a potential fish storm but the ridging is not cooperating this time......
Quoting 2747. Progster:
Canadian GEM hi res develops a weak STS off the NJ coast by Friday morning. I've seen this happen before with similar set-ups. Lots "o" instability and from time to time the convective feedback is real.

Link
ncstorm has been saying that for days and I have been watching the models too show this area.
2754. Dakster
Quoting 2752. weathermanwannabe:


Which would normally signal a fish storm but the ridging is not cooperating this time......



Ugh... Yes. The B-High is being non-cooperative for that type of setup. But as they say, timing is everything.
12z GFS Int:

Quoting 2747. Progster:
Canadian GEM hi res develops a weak STS off the NJ coast by Friday morning. I've seen this happen before with similar set-ups. Lots "o" instability and from time to time the convective feedback is real.

Link


NAM shows something similar, except it develops off the NC/VA coast.
2757. Times2
Quoting 2713. AussieStorm:
Is the NHC saying Dorian is as good as he's going to get?



Traveling at 21mph.


Actually doing what they always do, forecasting. Unfortunatley they are not great at it 120 hours out. Dorian is small so it may not intensify much or lose much going thru that patch of cool water and some dry air. Next week around Monday will be very interesting.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Kind of unusual knowing that it already surpassed the 5 am forecast peak intensity of 45 mph. It is already a 50 mph storm. I have a feeling that Dorian might have a few more tricks up her sleeve.


yeah,,, And Dorian is male, not female.
2759. Grothar
Quoting 2753. GTstormChaserCaleb:
ncstorm has been saying that for days and I have been watching the models too show this area.


Is that the one you were showing the other night?
It's already at 50 mph, I would say hurricane , maybe at 5 or 11 pm tonight, just my guess ! And as far as any recurve , it depends on what , if anything that one of the maps , shows off the east coast ! That will be the only weakness , to that massive Bermuda high !
Quoting 2672. LargoFl:
Dorian is coming into view now


Wow it has a buzz saw look to it as it continues to tighten up its circulation this may go to 60 mph by 5pm. But will be able to maintain that level of intensity for the next 36 hours but after that models predicting low shear as the TUTT moves north and ventilate our system it could easily intensify once again.
2762. VR46L
Quoting 2740. Chucktown:


That is going to be a formidable storm this weekend. Watch for a strong Nor'easter possibly transitioning to a tropical entity as it heads up the east coast. This bears more watching than Dorian I believe.

Link


Oh My !!

Dorian , Subtropical entity and the wave in Africa will be hitting the water in a couple of Days .... Its all kicking off now EEK !
The last time we had two named systems East of the Islands in July was Dennis and Emily of 2005. Very rare but could be indicative of a busy Cape Verde season.
Quoting 2748. Patrap:


The actual energy for that possible scenario is now here ironically.





Actually that could be a different one that develops off the FL coast on Friday...I think I saw an MCS coming the other way a few yrs ago; rounding a mid Continent ridge then going offshore near the NJ coast and sliding down the gulf stream and then into the Gomex. It was odd.
Quoting 2748. Patrap:


The actual energy for that possible scenario is now here ironically.





Yea, there are several "pivots" involved here. The first one is just headed off the SE coast of GA. The second vort max is over southern AL and the last piece is the one you showed in OK. We are going to get a rare summertime negatively tilted trough here in the eastern US. This is going to be a decent storm, maybe sub-tropical or something along those lines. Cape Hatteras north will be impacted by this storm from Friday and into the weekend.
Quoting 2748. Patrap:


The actual energy for that possible scenario is now here ironically.





Actually that energy is for the second nor'easter forecasted to develop this weekend near the Bahamas. A mid level low over GA is responsible for the nor'easter this week hitting SNE.
Quoting 2758. AussieStorm:


yeah,,, And Dorian is male, not female.


Whoops! Thanks for the correction!
Just a wrong day to have 8 hours shift at work... oh well. I should have another blog up either tonight after 11 pm or the first thing tomorrow around 12 or 1 pm.
Quoting 2759. Grothar:


Is that the one you were showing the other night?
Yes I can't remember if it was the GFS or CMC showing it, but now both models show it. Remember I asked you if you thought there was a chance for a trough split around the same time we had Dorian approaching the islands?
ok new images are in and I see Dorian located 14.2N 29.9/30.0W and that "mid level eye" seem to spun around making it complete however the thunderstorm tht was with it are dying as a result not only that the "Mid Level Eye" and the LLCOC have become rather elongated WNW-ESE it may be so that it has had a jolt of intensification but jolted back down now its wait and watch at this point
When is the east coast storm suppose to pull together, tomorrow afternoon?
The "eye like" feature might be a dry air. Also, this storm is TINY. Many people struggles with a small storms, as they could strengthen faster than expected.
Quoting 2741. whitewabit:


you would have to understand .. in 1992 at 600 mile out they did not know where it was going !! so saying our neighborhood is not far off ..


I remember tracking Hurricane Allen in 1980 with the charts you would get free at gas stations and stores. Each day you listened to the news and marked the new location of the hurricane. I lived in Raymondville, TX at that time.
2775. Grothar
Quoting 2769. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Yes I can't remember if it was the GFS or CMC showing it, but now both models show it. Remember I asked you if you thought there was a chance for a trough split around the same time we had Dorian approaching the islands?


I remember everything Caleb. :)

I even kept my hurricane tracking map from '92. Primitive but useful.

04L/TS/D/CX
Quoting 2771. Methurricanes:
When is the east coast storm suppose to pull together, tomorrow afternoon?


Sometime tomorrow afternoon
The swirl several hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico and a few hundred miles due east of Bermuda:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307241525
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2013, DB, O, 2013072412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992013
AL, 99, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 304N, 556W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting 2753. GTstormChaserCaleb:
ncstorm has been saying that for days and I have been watching the models too show this area.


This blog is so often totally on top of things :)
2780. will40
Quoting 2768. Bluestorm5:
Just a wrong day to have 8 hours shift at work... oh well. I should have another blog up either tonight after 11 pm or the first thing tomorrow around 12 or 1 pm.


well consider it lucky. lots of people would like to have an 8 hr shift
Major convective explosion off of NC and SC in association with mid level low over GA
2782. JRRP

Quoting 2773. DavidHOUTX:
Might be dry air. However, I need to see microwave first...
18 hrs.

Quoting 2778. Neapolitan:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307241525
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2013, DB, O, 2013072412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992013
AL, 99, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 304N, 556W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Oh oh the switch has been flipped on.
Quoting 2778. Neapolitan:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307241525
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2013, DB, O, 2013072412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992013
AL, 99, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 304N, 556W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

lol really are you joking or is this fo real
Quoting 2780. will40:


well consider it lucky. lots of people would like to have an 8 hr shift
Yeah, I need to get some cash for college... been working my butt off all summer long so my family can afford to go to college.
Quoting 2778. Neapolitan:
The swirl several hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico and a few hundred miles due east of Bermuda:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307241525
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2013, DB, O, 2013072412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992013
AL, 99, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 304N, 556W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
That would be my blob! :D
2789. Patrap
Nea brings the full monty.

Always.
Quoting 2786. wunderkidcayman:

lol really are you joking or is this fo real


This is in association with an upper level low over the central Atlantic heading for New Foundland, Canada
TS Dorian and 99L

Quoting 2733. Dakster:


Only because of all the non-native trees that are here now.



Not sure where you get that assumption from. During Erin, Opal and Ivan it was giant long leaf pines and live oaks that caused a lot of the damage. It really doesn't matter whether a tree is native or not. The reason they will be at risk is because Florida is water logged meaning high winds could very easily tear up the roots of both native and non-native trees.
2793. will40
Quoting 2787. Bluestorm5:
Yeah, I need to get some cash for college... been working my butt off all summer long so my family can afford to go to college.


good girl i think you would make a good met
2794. K8eCane
Quoting 2789. Patrap:
Nea brings the full monty.

Always.



If you mean that he don't joke about such things, I agree
Quoting 2763. sporteguy03:
The last time we had two named systems East of the Islands in July was Dennis and Emily of 2005. Very rare but could be indicative of a busy Cape Verde season.

Exactly what I have been thinking, and yet we still have people saying this season could not amount to a whole lot.

Yeah it's amazing

2 Cape Verde Systems in July


The moisture  just east of Bermuda has persist long enough to acquire a low.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307241525
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2013, DB, O, 2013072412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992013
AL, 99, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 304N, 556W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting 2778. Neapolitan:
The swirl several hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico and a few hundred miles due east of Bermuda:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307241525
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2013, DB, O, 2013072412, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992013
AL, 99, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 304N, 556W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


looks a little unlikely...but it is under a pretty strong 250 mb ridge and there's not a lot of shear..and a surface trough...and good SST's....hmmm
Heck of a feature off the east coast

Brand new invest 99L.
Quoting 2793. will40:


good girl i think you would make a good met
Bluestorm is a he.lol.
2801. 7544
Quoting 2799. HurricaneAndre:
Brand new invest 99L.


yeap yeap moving west ?
man Dorian beat the whole 7 day intensity forecast in 6 hours
Quoting 2793. will40:


good girl i think you would make a good met


I'm a guy, lol. I hope so!
Quoting 2801. 7544:


yeap yeap moving west ?


Near zero percent chance at hitting the US, Canada is different
Quoting 2789. Patrap:
Nea brings the full monty.

Always.
Quoting 2794. K8eCane:



If you mean that he don't joke about such things, I agree

His F5 key must be worn out big time! That or he's ordered a new keyboard. haha.

Natalie
Any way what ever
2807. Patrap
No Natalie, they have these things called er, "Google alerts"..maybe Google dat Dawlin'
48 hrs. the feature off the East Coast:

2809. Patrap
99L isnt going to the Cayman's ?

LoL
2810. will40
Quoting 2803. Bluestorm5:


I'm a guy, lol. I hope so!


oops sorry i still think you would be a good met
2811. JRRP
Quoting Patrap:
99L isnt going to the Cayman's ?

LoL

lol
2812. Grothar
Quoting 2791. GTstormChaserCaleb:
TS Dorian and 99L



I told you not to lose faith in your little blob last night. I wonder how this will affect Dorian's path.


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I maybe late , we have a new invest 99 L ! What are chances of developement ? I also see its moving west . HMMN !
2815. Patrap
That entity's Genesis GT is now in NE Texas actually.

Keep a eye on it.
System near 31n and 55w should be next named storm, could impact Canada within next three to five days
12Z GFS much stronger
I leave for an hour and Dorian and 99L form....
I should leave more often.

Dorian's eyelike feature might go or stay..someone said it was trying to form an eyewall. That'd be great. Hurricane Dorian could form and then weaken in 24 hours when conditions become less favorable. Just so we could just get a hurricane ;)

I really don't know about 99L....Michael might be a good analogue?? At least for track..
Quoting 2792. 69Viking:


Not sure where you get that assumption from. During Erin, Opal and Ivan it was giant long leaf pines and live oaks that caused a lot of the damage. It really doesn't matter whether a tree is native or not. The reason they will be at risk is because Florida is water logged meaning high winds could very easily tear up the roots of both native and non-native trees.

Yeah, well I happen to have a book called StormScaping by Pamela Crawford in which the author went around Florida after the 2004 season, and cataloged how all the trees did. And Generally, the natives did better.

The Live Oaks actually did very well in the hurricanes, it's the Laurel Oaks that wreaked havoc in Central Florida northward. The Laurel Oak is easily confused with the Live Oak.

And the Longleaf pines generally do well, but yes, on wagerlogged sites they do fall over sometimes, and their top can sometimes break. And again, the easily confused Slash Pine did snap sometimes at the trunk, so that did cause some damage, maybe more than the Longleaf pine.
2820. Grothar
Quoting 2808. GTstormChaserCaleb:
48 hrs. the feature off the East Coast:



Here's your little 99L Caleb




2821. Dakster
Quoting 2792. 69Viking:


Not sure where you get that assumption from. During Erin, Opal and Ivan it was giant long leaf pines and live oaks that caused a lot of the damage. It really doesn't matter whether a tree is native or not. The reason they will be at risk is because Florida is water logged meaning high winds could very easily tear up the roots of both native and non-native trees.


Point taken - but I still say the non-native stuff is MORE at risk than the native stuff that has been here for a long time and has evolved by surviving wet seasons and storms.
Tropical Storm Dorian has tightening up conserably once it was able to leave the monsoonal flow shedding some of its disorganized convection and a decrease in shear with a more anticyclonic flow developing over it. Microwave imagery would also suggest a building eyewall on the eastern side of the compact system which leads me to think that this may peak around 60-65mph before hitting 25-26C water but that will be short lived as it will start to enter warmer waters 27C as quickly as 40W in about 24 hours. In that time span convection should wane but still be potent as it draw in moisture from the south and east.  Slight weakening could occur after that we will see how shear fares as the GFS is predicting it to stay under 20kts which will allow for it to restrengthen just north of the islands.  It remains too early to tell where it will go but recurvature or a significant northerly track is unlikely due to the 600 DM High being forecasted. The Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and SE US will have to monitor its progress closely starting this Sunday. As they maybe facing a strengthening storm bearing there way. 
Hello GT , will 99 L form , if so , will it strike the US ?
2824. Patrap
Ya talking to no one guys

Quoting 2813. WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 2729. LargoFl:
if that storm comes anywhere near florida the tree removal services are going to be making the big bucks huh..and imagine the rivers,lakes and streams..imagine..10-12 inches of MORE rain coming...and..we ALSO have that frontal system moving into florida just about the same time............this is not a good scenerio shaping up for soaking wet florida


Not to mention the roofing contractors.
2826. hydrus
Quoting 2744. weatherh98:


purely talking track. not intensity or timeline just track
Quite a few hurricanes have taken that very track, and turned out to be extremely dangerous. Not so early in the season tho.
Afternoon all! I see the 12z GFS came back with Dorian becoming a rather nasty Hurricane recurving towards Canada and the Northeast. Should be fun to watch.
Quoting 2802. all4hurricanes:
man Dorian beat the whole 7 day intensity forecast in 6 hours
It doesn't help that the NHC always under estimates these storms either.