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African Tropical Wave 98L a Marginal Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:38 PM GMT on July 22, 2013

A strong and well-organized tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on Monday, and has been designated 98L by NHC. This disturbance is headed west at 10 - 15 mph, and is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear. A large amount of dry air lies to the north and west of 98L, and will likely interfere with development. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will stay in the moderate range through Thursday, then rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Friday and Saturday. Ocean temperature are warm off the coast of Africa (27 - 28°C,), but will cool to 25 - 26°C on Tuesday through Thursday, a temperature that is quite marginal for development. None of the computer models predict that 98L will develop, not even the usually aggressive Canadian (CMC) model. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. 98L should maintain a west to west-northwest track through the week, and may bring heavy rains and gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands beginning on Saturday night.


Figure 1. Satellite image of 98L off the coast of Africa taken at 8 am EDT Monday July 22, 2013, with a satellite analysis of where dry air is, as well. A large amount of dry air lies to the north and west of 98L, and will likely interfere with development. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS and NOAA/HRD.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of 98L taken at approximately 8 am EDT July 22, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


Quoting 1500. Camille33:
Renumber may be coming soon.
Nah.
Quoting 1498. KoritheMan:

It has a lot of convection, and a seemingly well-defined center. I don't think it's too weak to feel a weakness at all.

But does it?


it would have to be stronger to feel it

Quoting 1499. KoritheMan:

It is?



nope W with maybe slight jogs S of Due W
Had it with the blog. Other sites is going fast still. I'm going to bed, but at least I'm off from Walmart tomorrow.
Quoting 1500. Camille33:
Renumber may be coming soon.

nah maybe later
Quoting 1503. Bluestorm5:
Had it with the blog. Other sites is going fast still. I'm going to bed, but at least I'm off from Walmart tomorrow.

??? you work at walmart???
Quoting 1442. bigwes6844:
i think code red by tomorrow

Or today in the morning or afternoon
Quoting 1499. KoritheMan:

It is?


Yes. WNW for now. Soon to be more like due West. Certainly not WSW. Dot marks the "COC".

Quoting 1505. wunderkidcayman:

??? you work at walmart???
Yup. So does Kori. I only got two more weeks or so at Walmart and I'm off to college.

Quoting 1507. TomTaylor:
Yes. WNW for now. Soon to be more like due West. Certainly not WSW.

Okay, and that still suggests the models could be wrong. I've been forecasting for several years, and while they are correct most of the time, the models certainly aren't the be all end all.

I prefer to use my eyes and personal judgment, and use the models as guidance, as is their intended purpose. You always check to see if real-time observations compliments what the models are saying; if the two aren't synchronized, it's probably a bad sign.
ECMWF bringing 98E in my area by next week:

06Z ATCF is at least an hour late.
Quoting 1509. KoritheMan:

Okay, and that still suggests the models could be wrong. I've been forecasting for several years, and while they are correct most of the time, the models certainly aren't the be all end all.

I prefer to use my eyes and personal judgment, and use the models as guidance, as is their intended purpose. You always check to see if real-time observations compliments what the models are saying; if the two aren't synchronized, it's probably a bad sign.
Models indicate WNW motion as well. I too use real-time observations, but right now we don't have any. You guys are watching a convective blob move WSW. I'm trying to show you guys it is hardly indicative of the motion of the LLC. It could be that it is moving WSW with that convective blob, but low-level steering (as shown by the models, and CIMSS analysis) argues strongly against that. Which is why the NHC said WNW, not WSW.
Quoting 1507. TomTaylor:
Yes. WNW for now. Soon to be more like due West. Certainly not WSW. Dot marks the "COC".


need to look at what is at top and to the W not what has already past

Quoting 1508. Bluestorm5:
Yup. So does Kori. I only got two more weeks or so at Walmart and I'm off to college.

cool you guys still got those Walther P99 spring Airsoft that comes with two guns and two suppressor and two small jars of BBs
Quoting 1512. TomTaylor:
Models indicate WNW motion as well. I too use real-time observations, but right now we don't have any. You guys are watching a convective blob move WSW. I'm trying to show you guys it is hardly indicative of the motion of the LLC. It could be that it is moving WSW with that convective blob, but low-level steering (as shown by the models, and CIMSS analysis) argues strongly against that. Which is why the NHC said WNW, not WSW.
o_O

I don't recall ever stating it was moving west-southwest; wunderkidcayman did.

Models indicate an immediate and continued (for several days) WNW motion, which again, is not likely given the current steering pattern.

I'm smarter than that, lol. I don't follow the convection, I follow the low clouds, of which there have been some, albeit faint. And those clouds indicate a more westward movement.
look guys I strongly believe 98L will not follow the models as they are now infact look at where the Sat look like to have our COC and overlay it with the models and I am sure there not in line
Quoting 1514. KoritheMan:
o_O

I don't recall ever stating it was moving west-southwest; wunderkidcayman did.

Models indicate an immediate and continued (for several days) WNW motion, which again, is not likely given the current steering pattern.

I'm smarter than that, lol. I don't follow the convection, I follow the low clouds, of which there have been some, albeit faint. And those clouds indicated a more westward movement.

I never stated that is was moving WSW I said it could wobble a bit WSW but I did state it is moving W
I did say that the Convective burst near the COC was spinning around to the WSW but I did not say the COC was moving WSW
Quoting 1513. wunderkidcayman:

need to look at what is at top and to the W not what has already past


cool you guys still got those Walther P99 spring Airsoft that comes with two guns and two suppressor and two small jars of BBs
I'm a cashier, so I don't do shelves. Kori only do dairies as well, so it's likely he doesn't have idea if we still have that either.
Quoting 1514. KoritheMan:
o_O

I don't recall ever stating it was moving west-southwest; wunderkidcayman did.

Models indicate an immediate and continued (for several days) WNW motion, which again, is not likely given the current steering pattern.

I'm smarter than that, lol. I don't follow the convection, I follow the low clouds, of which there have been some, albeit faint. And those clouds indicate a more westward movement.
Yeah, sorry for saying you did. Cody did though, that's who I was responding to initially. And now wunderkid is saying WSW too. We'll see what ATCF does with the 6z position, it's hard to really pinpoint the COC without any good observations. I suspect they will follow the low-level flow, however. Putting it on a W or WNW track since the 0z fix.
Quoting 1518. Bluestorm5:
I'm a cashier, so I don't do shelves. Kori only do dairies as well, so it's likely he doesn't have idea if we still have that either.

lol ok sorry then

Quoting 1519. TomTaylor:
Yeah, sorry for saying you did. Cody did though, that's who I was responding to initially. And now wunderkid is saying WSW too. We'll see what ATCF does with the 6z position, it's hard to really pinpoint the COC without any good observations. I suspect they will follow the low-level flow, however. Putting it on a W or WNW track since the 0z fix.

Tom did you read the last 2 comment I made no so go and read it!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 1520. wunderkidcayman:

lol ok sorry then


Tom did you read the last 2 comment I made no so go and read it!!!!!!!!!


Sorry, dude. Wish I know more about items we have. You might have a chance by looking at store's website, though.
My apologies, wunderkidcayman. Looking back at things, I do see that you didn't actually say that.
Quoting 1520. wunderkidcayman:

lol ok sorry then


Tom did you read the last 2 comment I made no so go and read it!!!!!!!!!
Alright, but you did say this:

Quoting 1502. wunderkidcayman:


nope W with maybe slight jogs S of Due W
Quoting 1521. Bluestorm5:


Sorry, dude. Wish I know more about items we have. You might have a chance by looking at store's website, though.

yeah its alright but yeah you do need to know what you have in you store or people may rob you/store without you noticing

Quoting 1522. KoritheMan:
My apologies, wunderkidcayman. Looking back at things, I do see that you didn't actually say that.


yeah thats alright just hoping we can just clear that up with Tom now as well
See the NHC mentions the tropical wave over Eastern DR and the Mona Passage. Saying it will gain convection tomorrow. Could be looking at a decent convective blob tomorrow moving WNW; any chance this develops?
I think Walmart can take the hit. And how is knowing what's in the store going to allow Blue to stop shoplifters? Walmart pays security for that; they a'int paying Bluestorm enough to stick his neck out to stop shoplifting. Dangerous.
Quoting 1523. TomTaylor:
Alright, but you did say this:


ok Tom I said its moving W and I said MAYBE S of Due W which is still W but not 270 degrees (true or Due W) but just S of it which is still W not WSW and remember I said MAYBE
1528. barbamz

Wow, you guys never sleep over there? :) Good morning with the TPW-waves. Circulation south of the Cape Verdes is obvious.
Click to enlarge.

New on Dave's landslide blog:

23 July 2013: An even better video of the large rock topple and collapse at Saint Jouin Breneval in France


Western Europe is in for thunderstorms today.

Forecast and discussion on estofex.org.
Quoting 1525. Tribucanes:
See the NHC mentions the tropical wave over Eastern DR and the Mona Passage. Saying it will gain convection tomorrow. Could be looking at a decent convective blob tomorrow moving WNW; any chance this develops?

nope -10%

Quoting 1528. barbamz:

Wow, you guys never sleep over there? :) Good morning with the TPW-waves. Circulation south of the Cape Verdes is obvious.
Click to enlarge.

there are lives on the line lol joking no not yet but yeah its fun in a way
anyway yeah there is but the key is where is the definitive LLCOC which you truly can't find it using that
1531. barbamz
Quoting 1530. wunderkidcayman:

there are lives on the line lol joking no not yet but yeah its fun in a way
anyway yeah there is but the key is where is the definitive LLCOC which you truly can't find it using that


You guys do the details, lol. I'm sure there won't be any little cloud of 98L that won't be monitored and discussed thoroughly on the blog the days to come. In Germany I'll just lean back and watch you and the waves :)

BTW, NOAA floater doesn't provide any update for many hours now :(
Quoting 1531. barbamz:


You guys do the details, lol. I'm sure there won't be any little cloud of 98L that won't be monitored and discussed thoroughly on the blog the days to come. In Germany I'll just lean back and watch you and the waves :)

only if Germany was in the Atlantic and not in Europe you could truly understand why we do this
1533. barbamz
Quoting 1532. wunderkidcayman:

only if Germany was in the Atlantic and not in Europe you could truly understand why we do this


WKC, I'm following this blog closely for already six or seven years, even before I've signed in. I know why you do this, and I doesn't object at all.
Quoting 1531. barbamz:


You guys do the details, lol. I'm sure there won't be any little cloud of 98L that won't be monitored and discussed thoroughly on the blog the days to come. In Germany I'll just lean back and watch you and the waves :)

BTW, NOAA floater doesn't provide any update for many hours now :(

usually NOAA floater don't start on storms till they are the 30/35W line but it appears that NOAA did special delivery for 98L and since they are using the E atl satellite to create the floater that is why but images should update soon
Quoting 1533. barbamz:


WKC, I'm following this blog closely for already six or seven years, even before I've signed in. I know why you do this, and I doesn't object at all.

yeah I know that but you just won't understand it till you're in one and you're living it like us more so with those of us who is in Cayman Island as we do get it the most out of the whole atlantic
it appears that we will not get the 06Z plots we will likely get it with the 12Z one so I can hardly keep my eye open so I'm passin out for a few hours see ya'll soon
yepppppp dddeaaaaddddddd
1538. Gearsts
GFS splits the system this is why it kills it.
Appears to be moving westward after shifting towards the southwest.

1542. Gearsts
Quoting 1540. Civicane49:
Appears to be moving westward after shifting towards the southwest.

Moving WNW now and you can see the COC without convection.
dry air and marginal water temps are getting it
wow invest 98L looking bad this morning.
Quoting 1543. islander101010:
dry air is getting it
u are 100% right!
its unusual to get one going out of the aug 15- sept 15 time period. this invest is a rare breed
invest 98L will be hitting the cool water soon!
1549. LargoFl
IF it does take this track it runs right into the front....
ATLANTIC
Invest 98-L located just off the African coast in the far eastern Atlantic and over 2,500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to show signs of organization. An exceptionally potent atmospheric disturbance moving quickly across the region is giving credence to near-term development.
Despite dry air to the north, 98-L is enveloped within a cocoon of very moist air while upper-level winds are forecast to gradually weaken ahead of it. Atmospheric spin is also being enhanced thanks to a more westward located mid-level jet of strong winds from Africa.
The two primary factors working against development over the next few days will be cooler than normal ocean temperatures hovering at or below 80 F and brisk easterly trades.

While the near-term environment looks favorable, longer-term prospects for 98-L are far less sanguine. It has an arduous journey across a long stretch of ocean where, by the latter half of the week, the atmosphere is forecast to become increasingly hostile. If 98-L doesn't organize over the next few days it's odds of ever doing so are unlikely.
1551. LargoFl
its going back to 30% at 8am this morning or hangout at 40% for a long time
1553. LargoFl
and to our south.....................
1554. LargoFl
and what 98 runs into in its track westward.............
Quoting 1157. sar2401:

GN, hope you sleep well. The site slaughtered what I assume is the Pound symbol for your renter's insurance, but I think you have the conversion backwards. Ten pounds a month would be equal to about USD$ 21.50.


haha ah yes, that was 3am talking! So my insurance of 14 pounds a month (dunno why it doesn't like my pound symbol) would be about $25 a month equivalent or such. Still probably a lot less than FL insurance, even if only renting.

And thanks, slept ok for me. I don't sleep well in general, so ok sleep is pretty good LOL Ready for some of Largo's coffee I think
Seems to be hanging in there.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS ITS
AXIS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 15N22W TO
07N23W AND MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH COMBINED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 21W-27W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
8 AM TWD SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS ITS
AXIS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 15N22W TO
07N23W AND MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH COMBINED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 21W-27W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
the invest is taking a deep breath before its off to the races
1559. LargoFl
Quoting Civicane49:
Appears to be moving westward after shifting towards the southwest.



This is over east Africa. It looks pretty good and if it holds together hmmmmm.....


Zoom-able image embedded
1561. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs Coffee is Perked..enjoy...
1562. SLU
AL, 98, 2013072306, , BEST, 0, 123N, 218W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

still westbound as of 06z
1563. SLU
Shear generally under 20kts but the SSTs will be a big problem along the BAMM track.

SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.5 25.4 25.2 25.7 26.3 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1022 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS ITS
AXIS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 15N22W TO
07N23W AND MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH COMBINED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 21W-27W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
not if it going in cool water temp!
1565. LargoFl
Quoting 1514. KoritheMan:
o_O

I don't recall ever stating it was moving west-southwest; wunderkidcayman did.

Models indicate an immediate and continued (for several days) WNW motion, which again, is not likely given the current steering pattern.

I'm smarter than that, lol. I don't follow the convection, I follow the low clouds, of which there have been some, albeit faint. And those clouds indicate a more westward movement.
It won't even develop! The cold water and shear will tear it apart soon. Too bad.
1567. LargoFl
we have a tropical low on the map no more tropical wave
Quoting 1557. stormwatcherCI:
8 AM TWD SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS ITS
AXIS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 15N22W TO
07N23W AND MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH COMBINED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 21W-27W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
its slowing down
Quoting 1525. Tribucanes:
See the NHC mentions the tropical wave over Eastern DR and the Mona Passage. Saying it will gain convection tomorrow. Could be looking at a decent convective blob tomorrow moving WNW; any chance this develops?
no.
1571. Kyon5

Quoting 1568. hurricanes2018:
 we have a tropical low on the map no more tropical wave
The arrow indicates a movement to the WSW.
1572. LargoFl
IF..it makes it thru the trough.....................
Quoting 1558. islander101010:
the invest is taking a deep breath before its off to the races
Don't hold your breath.
1574. LargoFl
Doesnt look like a Gulf Bound storm if it makes it across..
Quoting 1571. Kyon5:

The arrow indicates a movement to the WSW.
I saw that!
1576. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Levi set this up yesterday for us..
Updates every 15 minutes..

Visible..



IR..




Edit:
One suggestion..
I found that these slow down the blog reload a bit..
Post them to your blog and they will be there when you want to see them..
If you don't know how WU mail me..
Dorian = Ike 2.0 ??
Good Morning. NHC seems to think that it has a better window of opportunity in the short-term. Next 24 will be interesting to see if it can build some convection back up.



NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED...SOME
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE LATER TODAY BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs Coffee is Perked..enjoy...


If you said Tea, I would have some. I don't drink coffee. I have a nice big cuppa tea in front of me now.
1580. SRQfl
XTRP looks like the best track right now lol.
1581. LargoFl
I just viewed 3 different animated model plots for 98L...perhaps the southeastern coastal states should be keeping a close eye on this storm..me?..i hope it dies out..all three sites have it going into the south east.............but thats a long way off and it has to cross very Hostile waters..we'll see what happens
On a related note; I watched a few episodes of Hurricane Hunters last night on TWC; puts you right in the cockpit and great discussion from the crews on each storm and the techniques they use to track and monitor.

Gets my vote for best reality TV show........
Good morning!
1585. LargoFl
Quoting 1579. AussieStorm:


If you said Tea, I would have some. I don't drink coffee. I have a nice big cuppa tea in front of me now.
Hiya Aussie!! long time no see..well enjoy your tea
1586. LargoFl
very hard to catch the right frame but southeast it hits....
After a quiet few weeks after Chantal, another wave bears watching out in the far eastern Atlantic. Being tracked as "98L" it will likely move generally westward and has a low to moderate chance to develop over the long haul. Other areas may pop up closer before it makes it all the way westward.

Since it is so far out and has quite a bit of hurdles to go through, and only marginally favorable conditions both in the atmosphere and with sea surface temperatures, it could remain weak for a while. Long term models keep it going generally westward, so those in the northeastern Caribbean will want to follow the progress for this weekend. Beyond that is to soon to tell, but there is nothing to suggest a hard north turn currently.

As of now the wave has a 30% chance for development over the next few days, and this one may never truly develop.
FL hurricane site
from FLhurricanes.com


sunset shot taken in Blue Mountains, Australia
Photo by Yury Prokopenko
Morning/Evening

Looks like a small solar flare is headed our way. I'm not sure what spaceweather sees, but I see a full circle CME from 7/22 7:00. I havent seen a full circle going away from us before.

That 98l invest has some decent rotation under those clouds. And here I thought it was too far south, guess not.
Quoting LargoFl:
Hiya Aussie!! long time no see..well enjoy your tea

You ain't been looking if you haven't see me around here. My tea is nice
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED...SOME
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED...SOME
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting 1583. weathermanwannabe:
On a related note; I watched a few episodes of Hurricane Hunters last night on TWC; puts you right in the cockpit and great discussion from the crews on each storm and the techniques they use to track and monitor.

Gets my vote for best reality TV show........
I have watched it a few times and it even had my 5 month old great-grandson entranced over the weekend. He watched it just as calm as can be.
1595. pcola57
Quoting 1589. AussieStorm:


sunset shot taken in Blue Mountains, Australia
Photo by Yury Prokopenko


Thats a beautiful shot Aussie..
I can see why they call those the Blue Mountains..
Thanks for the share.. :)
Even if this wave does not develop, if it does continue on a Westward track over the coming weeks due to the current ridging patterns, it might be a preview of the types of tracks we can expect to see in the coming weeks. The current set-up looks right for a few long-track Cape Verde storms this year that will get into the Caribbean and head towards the US.

This type of "lower" long-track trajectory is consistent with the climatology during Neutral ENSO seasons.
1597. LargoFl
so we have something to watch at last huh..............
Quoting 1594. stormwatcherCI:
I have watched it a few times and it even had my 5 month old great-grandson entranced over the weekend. He watched it just as calm as can be.


I had a science teacher in high school (over 30 years ago) who knew the folks at NHC and he had a few of us lined up for a flight in the Orions but a storm/flight did not materialize for us that particular Fall.

That is when I got the hurricane bug.......You might have a future pilot on your hands......
98l going straight west...ignore the gfs model because it has bad initialization with the vorticity.This is looking like it will go into the central caribbean now.
1600. LargoFl
1601. SRQfl
Some increased rotation evident...
UK Lightning map of Lightning strikes over the last 24hrs.

Quoting 1601. SRQfl:
Some increased rotation evident...


!!
Some increased rotation evident...
1605. pcola57
Quoting 1587. sebastianflorida:
After a quiet few weeks after Chantal, another wave bears watching out in the far eastern Atlantic. Being tracked as "98L" it will likely move generally westward and has a low to moderate chance to develop over the long haul. Other areas may pop up closer before it makes it all the way westward.

Since it is so far out and has quite a bit of hurdles to go through, and only marginally favorable conditions both in the atmosphere and with sea surface temperatures, it could remain weak for a while. Long term models keep it going generally westward, so those in the northeastern Caribbean will want to follow the progress for this weekend. Beyond that is to soon to tell, but there is nothing to suggest a hard north turn currently.

As of now the wave has a 30% chance for development over the next few days, and this one may never truly develop.
FL hurricane site


Better check NHC sebastianflorida..
98L is at 40%..

1606. LargoFl
well it doesnt look impressive..we'll see in a week.....
Quoting 1581. LargoFl:
I just viewed 3 different animated model plots for 98L...perhaps the southeastern coastal states should be keeping a close eye on this storm..me?..i hope it dies out..all three sites have it going into the south east.............but thats a long way off and it has to cross very Hostile waters..we'll see what happens
It won't even develop!
1608. LargoFl
well most of the models have it approaching the US with 45 knot winds..we can handle that


Strong thunderstorms are developing fast now across France, between Belgium/Luxembourg and Germany.
The cells produce quite some lightning.

Radar source; blitzortung.org
1610. LargoFl
OK.....

Who poured the Molases into the WU-Server?

p..... a.... g....... e.......



s.... l............. o.............. w............
1613. LargoFl
AL, 98, 2013072306, 122N, 218W, 25, 1009, LO
AL, 98, 2013072312, 122N, 227W, 25, 1009, LO
Quoting 1614. GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 98, 2013072306, 122N, 218W, 25, 1009, LO
AL, 98, 2013072312, 122N, 227W, 25, 1009, LO


Going westward.
1616. Grothar
1617. Kyon5

Quoting 1614. GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 98, 2013072306, 122N, 218W, 25, 1009, LO
AL, 98, 2013072312, 122N, 227W, 25, 1009, LO
Looks like it's west for now.
Quoting 1606. LargoFl:
well it doesnt look impressive..we'll see in a week.....


Looks good to me

527
WHXX01 KWBC 231214
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1214 UTC TUE JUL 23 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982013) 20130723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130723 1200 130724 0000 130724 1200 130725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 22.7W 13.0N 25.5W 14.5N 29.1W 16.0N 33.1W
BAMD 12.2N 22.7W 12.9N 25.6W 13.9N 28.6W 15.1N 31.5W
BAMM 12.2N 22.7W 13.2N 25.5W 14.5N 28.7W 16.0N 32.3W
LBAR 12.2N 22.7W 12.9N 25.4W 14.1N 28.6W 15.5N 31.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130725 1200 130726 1200 130727 1200 130728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 37.5W 18.9N 46.5W 20.7N 55.0W 22.9N 61.9W
BAMD 16.2N 34.6W 17.8N 41.0W 18.4N 46.1W 18.0N 49.7W
BAMM 17.3N 36.2W 19.2N 43.8W 20.2N 50.8W 21.1N 56.9W
LBAR 16.7N 35.1W 17.8N 41.1W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 41KTS 41KTS 42KTS 45KTS
DSHP 41KTS 41KTS 42KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 22.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 20.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 17.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Quoting 1609. AussieStorm:


Strong thunderstorms are developing fast now across France, between Belgium/Luxembourg and Germany.
The cells produce quite some lightning.

Radar source; blitzortung.org






1621. pcola57
Quoting 1612. CaicosRetiredSailor:
OK.....

Who poured the Molases into the WU-Server?

p..... a.... g....... e.......



s.... l............. o.............. w............



Morning Caicos..
And I see the little box for post updates is missing..
That floating thingy to ..well was to the right..
WU budget must be under review? :)
Asleep, at the Wheel?


No Active Atlantic Tropical Warnings
‎Today, ‎July ‎23, ‎2013, ‏‎11 minutes ago | CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO)Go to full article
As of Tue, 23 Jul 2013 12:15:02 GMT
lots of development dots near the windwards last wk in july. invest 98s future?
1624. Grothar
This path looks familiar.

1625. VR46L
Quoting 1602. AussieStorm:
UK Lightning map of Lightning strikes over the last 24hrs.



All good things come to an end .... Have lost the golden disc in the Sky ... still no rain but the humidity is energy sapping ... Thunderstorms are expected to spring up anywhere today



I'm not going to get excited for 98L because I know that SAL,cooler sst and Shear will eventually kill it off in a few days time.

Dorian would fit the name of a powerful major hurricane so well and not a weak one.This reminds me of Nana from 2008

1627. GatorWX
Quoting 1606. LargoFl:
well it doesnt look impressive..we'll see in a week.....


Idk, looks like a llc on the eastern periphery of that convection. Marginally favorable conditions ahead. I'm watching it. Lots of variables and hurdles to make it all the way here intact. Nice wave for mid July nonetheless. Another harbinger, lol? Let's see how it does with its trek across the Atlantic. Upper pattern has def changed across the eastern us. Let's see if it holds.
Quoting 1626. washingtonian115:
I'm not going to get excited for 98L because I know that SAL,cooler sst and Shear will eventually kill it off in a few days time.

Dorian would fit the name of a powerful major hurricane so well and not a weak one.This reminds me of Nana from 2008

Unless it gets renumber soon it will be only a td at most.
1629. Grothar
Quoting 1623. islander101010:
lots of development dots near the windwards last wk in july. invest 98s future?


Hopefully...
Quoting 1624. Grothar:
This path looks familiar.



That's what I want
1632. pcola57
BAM models are disappointing though
Quoting pcola57:


Thats a beautiful shot Aussie..
I can see why they call those the Blue Mountains..
Thanks for the share.. :)


Thanks, I saw it and knew I had to share it.
Do you know how it looks blue?
If you use the analogy of slave ships traveling from Africa to the Caribbean and US in history, Cape Verde "waves" travel across the Atlantic on the same Westerly trade winds that powered the ships across.

Thus, weak waves (which are not subject to influence from upper air features) will always travel towards the West along the same general route......When storms form, and develop height and want to rotate toward the poles, then that is when ridging and trofs come in the picture to determine their trajectory.

My point is that I would not put too much faith on the current model runs (including intensity forecasting this far out)because we really have no idea how much or how little the wave will develop on it's journey across.........This is why the trajectory models handle fully formed storms so much better, taking into account the factors in the upper atmosphere; the deeper the storm, the better the models handle it.

We can only assume at this point that the wave will move West in the Westerlies until something further happens to it.
good morning everybody. Im surprised the models haven't adjusted farther south yet.
1637. SLU
Quoting 1624. Grothar:
This path looks familiar.

Good morning Grothar good morning everyone. Seems as though the Experimental FIM likes 98L:

Quoting 1637. SLU:


Very nice!!
Quoting 1636. weatherlover94:
good morning everybody. Im surprised the models haven't adjusted farther south yet.


I'm very surprised too. I don't like what they are showing right now.
1641. SLU
5.0 degrees west and 0.0 degrees north in the last 24hrs.

AL, 98, 2013072212, , BEST, 0, 122N, 177W, 20, 1010, LO

AL, 98, 2013072312, , BEST, 0, 122N, 227W, 25, 1009, LO
Quoting 1635. weathermanwannabe:
If you use the analogy of slave ships traveling from Africa to the Caribbean and US in history, Cape Verde "waves" travel across the Atlantic on the same Westerly trade winds that powered the ships across.

Thus, weak waves (which are not subject to influence from upper air features) will always travel towards the West along the same general route......When storms form, and develop height and want to rotate toward the poles, then that is when ridging and trofs come in the picture to determine their trajectory.

My point is that I would not put too much faith on the current model runs (including intensity forecasting this far out)because we really have no idea how much or how little the wave will develop on it's journey across.........This is why the trajectory models handle fully formed storms so much better, taking into account the factors in the upper atmosphere; the deeper the storm, the better the models handle it.

We can only assume at this point that the wave will move West in the Westerlies until something further happens to it.
It's going to die either way you put it.If it's not killed off now upper level winds will do the job come Saturday along with land interaction.It just doesn't have a bright future ahead.If this would have waited 2 weeks I'm sure we would be talking about a whole other story.
1643. pcola57
Quoting 1634. AussieStorm:


Thanks, I saw it and knew I had to share it.
Do you know how it looks blue?


Negative..
You?
1644. LargoFl
For Floridians its a good time to Ask.........................When a hurricane is headed for your area, your main question may be ... "Do I Stay or Do I Go?"
Plan to stay if:
You live in a structure that is built after 1973 when Florida adopted a standard building code.
You do not live in a manufactured or mobile home.
Your home is not vulnerable to storm surge or inland flooding.
You have reduced the threat of falling trees by trimming and/or removing dead, dying or diseased trees.
You have mitigated the effects of severe winds on your home by installing hurricane shutters on windows and bracing your garage door.
You have prepared a multi-hazard Disaster Response Plan for yourself, your family and your pets.
You have prepared a Disaster Survival Kit that includes cash, two weeks supply of food, water and one month's supply of prescription medicines.
You have identified a Safe Room within your home.
You have a battery-powered radio and/or TV with extra batteries.
Plan to Go If:
An evacuation order has been issued.
You live in a structure that was built prior to 1973 when Florida adopted a standard building code.
You live in a manufactured or mobile (trailer) home.
Your home is vulnerable to storm surge or inland flooding.
Quoting 1605. pcola57:


Better check NHC sebastianflorida..
98L is at 40%..

Yes this is from yesterday, but still the outlook I agree with!
Quoting pcola57:


Negative..
You?


The blue is caused by the eucalyptus vapor in the air. It creates a blue-ish hue in the air. The eucalyptus evaporates from the leaves. It's not as blue during winter compared to summer.
Quoting 1642. washingtonian115:
It's going to die either way you put it.If it's not killed off now upper level winds will do the job come Saturday along with land interaction.It just doesn't have a bright future ahead.If this would have waited 2 weeks I'm sure we would be talking about a whole other story.


It is currently a normal run of the mill tropical wave moving across the Atlantic; it will not "die" per se but it could lose convection and dry out over time. I think that what you mean to say is that it will not develop into a tropical storm.
1649. Grothar
Quoting 1636. weatherlover94:
good morning everybody. Im surprised the models haven't adjusted farther south yet.


I can't say for sure but I think the next model run will keep 98L either slightly over the islands or just to the North.
Quoting 1579. AussieStorm:


If you said Tea, I would have some. I don't drink coffee. I have a nice big cuppa tea in front of me now.



I have both, often simultaneously...though the tea is usually some herbal, usually iced. But love me a chai latte too.



Oooh up to 40%, they're getting daring


After a month or so...I finally hear RAIN outside yay! Now everyone will have forgotten how to drive in it LOL
Quoting 1607. Waltanater:
It won't even develop!
Looked back on Andrew predictions several days before hitting s. florida, sounded pretty safe to nsay not much of anything to worry about then. You never know this far out; looks like US should be safe from anything major here. However in a week or so we will have a much better idea with 98L heck we might be watching something else by then, probably.
1652. LargoFl
most of the models have it going north of cuba,not gulf bound..
1653. pcola57
Quoting 1645. sebastianflorida:
Yes this is from yesterday, but still the outlook I agree with!


Thats fine sebastianflorida..
I was just thinking about accuracy for the lurkers and all..
I respect your opinion my friend.. :)

Quoting 1646. AussieStorm:


The blue is caused by the eucalyptus vapor in the air. It creates a blue-ish hue in the air. The eucalyptus evaporates from the leaves. It's not as blue during winter compared to summer.


I always wanted a Eucalyptus tree..
That is such an amazing fact..
Thanks again.. :)
Quoting 1647. weathermanwannabe:


It is currently a normal run of the mill tropical wave moving across the Atlantic; it will not "die" per se but it could lose convection and dry out over time. I think that what you mean to say is that it will not develop into a tropical storm.
Depending on what it does today it may have a shot at T.S status and then fall to unfavorable conditions like the NHC.
I'm sure if it wants to live it will stay further south of the models.
1655. LargoFl
I say give it time...the farther west it moves the better it's chances are. after it gets near the Antilles it can start to move farther north with no real issues. Shear will be on the decrease by that time and there shouldn't be much if any dry air for it to deal with.
Quoting 1641. SLU:
5.0 degrees west and 0.0 degrees north in the last 24hrs.

AL, 98, 2013072212, , BEST, 0, 122N, 177W, 20, 1010, LO

AL, 98, 2013072312, , BEST, 0, 122N, 227W, 25, 1009, LO
Thought the LLC was right near the deepest convection, but I guess not.

shear is very high in the caribbean.
Quoting 1656. weatherlover94:
I say give it time...the farther west it moves the better it's chances are. after it gets near the Antilles it can start to move farther north with no real issues. Shear will be on the decrease by that time and there shouldn't be much if any dry air for it to deal with.
"rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Friday and Saturday."

The Doc's outlook..
1660. VR46L
Ouch!!!!

Higher resolution Scatt









Link
1662. LargoFl
Quoting 1660. VR46L:
Ouch!!!!

yep Hostile conditions ahead of it alright
Quoting 1641. SLU:
5.0 degrees west and 0.0 degrees north in the last 24hrs.

AL, 98, 2013072212, , BEST, 0, 122N, 177W, 20, 1010, LO

AL, 98, 2013072312, , BEST, 0, 122N, 227W, 25, 1009, LO


Good morning, I still dont get why the nhc is still saying WNW when the system has been moving west all night. In anycase I dont understand why people are saying it wont develop when the surface center is getting better defined. Convection will come but I'm more interested in the LLC which is at 1010-1009mb and tightening up. All it take is one blow up of convection and we have Dorian.
1664. LargoFl
1665. VR46L
Quoting 1658. floridaboy14:
shear is very high in the caribbean.


Its worse in the central Atlantic...

Quoting 1654. washingtonian115:
Depending on what it does today it may have a shot at T.S status and then fall to unfavorable conditions like the NHC.
I'm sure if it wants to live it will stay further south of the models.


As I mentioned earlier, NHC is of the opinion that today (next 24) presents the best short-term chance for TD status; even then it's a 50/50 shot based on the current 40%.
Quoting 1638. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning Grothar good morning everyone. Seems as though the Experimental FIM likes 98L:



Models has shifted further south here with the FIM. I expect that to continue. Also its west of where the GFDL and HWRF initialize. The most southerly models are the ones who are initialized right on the LLC
1668. Grothar
I don't see any models significantly showing any strong intensity with 98L yet.

1669. VR46L
Quoting 1662. LargoFl:
yep Hostile conditions ahead of it alright


Not to mention 40kts of shear in parts of the Central Atlantic ...

and is presently in the coolest water in the tropical Atlantic

Quoting 1667. Hurricanes305:


Models has shifted further south here with the FIM. I expect that to continue. Also its west of where the GFDL and HWRF initialize. The most southerly models are the ones who are initialized right on the LLC


Quoting 1668. Grothar:
I don't see any models significantly showing any strong intensity with 98L yet.

Your not going to with high shear waiting for it and heavy SAL along with cooler sst.
Good morning! here is the 8am Computer Model and Satellite for 98L
1673. pcola57
By observing the Navy Visible animation, 98L's northern component/area of influence seems to be modifying the Sal to the north and a bit west..
I believe the Sal will interfer with development to a point..
Probably two days but by then I think it will moisten up and make it's own way through it..
Now SST's are a problem but we all know how fast that can change..
This will be an interesting first CV storm and one that may surprise us..
Chantal was quite an anomoly herself..



Once again Kudos to Levi and the Navy..
Upper air anticyclone is right over our LLC allowing it to tightening a bit over on the latest Oceansat. It as long as it produce enough latent heat and stay on a southerly track shear wont exceed 25-30kts
Quoting 1668. Grothar:
I don't see any models significantly showing any strong intensity with 98L yet.



I don't think they will either....not for a few more days....if at all.
1676. GatorWX


Can certainly see why it's only 40%. Unless something drastic happens today.... I really don't think, if there's a closed circulation that it appears too far from depression judging from sat pics. That buoy it crossed last night seemed to support a closed circulation, not much wind, but from all directions. Hopefully it'll keep firing those tstms, but as you're all aware, conditions are marginal at best and only in the short term. This one concerns me down the road as far as development. Hate the waiting game sometimes.
Quoting 1660. VR46L:
Ouch!!!!

That is a lot of SAL out there right now, question is is it moving in tandem with the ridge like 98L is because if it is the environment will moisten ahead of 98L as the dry air leaves the area and will likely thin out as it gets closer to the Lesser Antilles.
Quoting 1672. SFLWeatherman:
Good morning! here is the 8am Computer Model and Satellite for 98L


GFS now on the southern end of the guidance.



ULAC still over our LLC.
The only chance 98L has is if it stays South. If it takes a NW path like they are forecasting it's going to cross waters in the 70's and maybe even the 60's which don't support tropcial development. My prediction is if it stays South down near 12N and moves West then it has a chance to develop, if it goes North over the cooler waters then it fizzles for now and maybe has a chance to spin back up later on when it gets into warmer waters.
Quoting 1677. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That is a lot of SAL out there right now, question is is it moving in tandem with the ridge like 98L is because if it is the environment will moisten ahead of 98L as the dry air leaves the area and will likely thin out as it gets closer to the Lesser Antilles.
But then shear will be waiting for it as it get's near the Antilies.

"If it's not one problem it's another"
Quoting 1677. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That is a lot of SAL out there right now, question is is it moving in tandem with the ridge like 98L is because if it is the environment will moisten ahead of 98L as the dry air leaves the area and will likely thin out as it gets closer to the Lesser Antilles.
Here is it is. I dont see nothing of significant. If this stay in its monsoonal flow which is a zonal flow below 15N. Dry air wont be a problem. Cooler sst will slow it down from intensifying too much but it wont stop it from acquiring at least minimal TS status. 

Quoting 1680. washingtonian115:
But then shear will be waiting for it as it get's near the Antilies.

"If it's not one problem it's another"
Shear forecasts are very unreliable more than 3 days out, just like tracks for computer models more than 5 days out.
1683. Mikla
Though there appears to be some circulation on ASCAT, with the low SSTs there is just not enough ocean heat content to fuel the cyclonic engine to much more than idle. If it makes it past 40W where the THCP starts to increase (depending on lat) then, according to SHIPS, shear is likely to increase thus hindering development... never mind the dry air it is still likely to face.
1684. Grothar
Quoting 1671. washingtonian115:
Your not going to with high shear waiting for it and heavy SAL along with cooler sst.



OK, OK calm down!! LOL

Morning, Washi. Were's breakfast this morning.
Quoting 1676. GatorWX:


Can certainly see why it's only 40%. Unless something drastic happens today.... I really don't think, if there's a closed circulation that it appears too far from depression judging from sat pics. That buoy it crossed last night seemed to support a closed circulation, not much wind, but from all directions. Hopefully it'll keep firing those tstms, but as you're all aware, conditions are marginal at best and only in the short term. This one concerns me down the road as far as development. Hate the waiting game sometimes.


According to this mornings shear forecast is's suppose to thin out in the coming days

Link
1686. K8eCane
At the very least, 98 is something to discuss.
Current SAL is thinning out for the last couple of days

Here it shows what I mean if it takes any NW movement right now, it will hit some very cool waters in the near term. It needs to stay South and move West.

Quoting 1684. Grothar:



OK, OK calm down!! LOL

Morning, Washi. Were's breakfast this morning.


And we are waiting on Dexter's forecast for 98L!
1690. Grothar
Heavy SAL even well into the Caribbean.



Very hostile environment with high windshear.

Quoting 1684. Grothar:



OK, OK calm down!! LOL

Morning, Washi. Were's breakfast this morning.
Morning Gro.I think if this would have waited a week and a half to two weeks we would be talking about something different.
Quoting 1682. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Shear forecasts are very unreliable more than 3 days out, just like tracks for computer models more than 5 days out.
The fronts will be pushing down thus creating more shear.
Quoting 1673. pcola57:
By observing the Navy Visible animation, 98L's northern component/area of influence seems to be modifying the Sal to the north and a bit east..
I believe th Sal will interfer with development to a point..
Probably two days but by then I think it wil moisten up and make it's own way through it..
Now SST's are a problem but we all know how fast that can change..
This will be an interesting first CV storm and one that may surprise us..
Chantal was quite an anomoly herself..



Once again Kudos to Levi and the Navy..


You did a good summary of all the factors involved. This sysyem will tells us a lot about what to expect down the road in terms of the steering.
1693. StormWx
Good chance 98L becomes a fish storm. Please, think of the fish.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A humid 79 degrees here, which wouldn't be bad, but I now have a problem with my a/c. It'll be the end of the week till it's fixed. I can turn it on occasionally, but can't leave it running or on overnight. Ugh!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Asparagus Omelet with Shrimp Hollandaise Sauce, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, Pear and Gruyère Strata, crawfish eggs benedict, thick sliced Canadian bacon, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice.
1695. Grothar
Quoting 1689. GeoffreyWPB:


And we are waiting on Dexter's forecast for 98L!


I'm sure the little fella couldn't do worse than we can. I look forward to his little adventures every morning.
Quoting 1691. washingtonian115:
Morning Gro.I think if this would have waited a week and a half to two weeks we would be talking about something different. The fronts will be pushing down thus creating more shear.


we don't know that yet.
this is all most like a EL Nino set up



hurricane season RIP
1698. VR46L
Quoting 1677. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That is a lot of SAL out there right now, question is is it moving in tandem with the ridge like 98L is because if it is the environment will moisten ahead of 98L as the dry air leaves the area and will likely thin out as it gets closer to the Lesser Antilles.


I was watching the WV Maps over the past couple of days the SAL has really blown up in the last day and is becoming widespread . At the moment I am thinking if it survives as a wave to the Islands it would be doing well , but if it gets there its a whole new ball game !
Quoting 1693. StormWx:
Good chance 98L becomes a fish storm. Please, think of the fish.


doubtful. And then again it could be a whole lot of nothing that moves west and just brings squally weather to places.
Quoting 1690. Grothar:
Heavy SAL even well into the Caribbean.



Very hostile environment with high windshear.


I saw it first.
Hello Blog!

98L...Dorian? Really? Don't think so. I know Dorian, and you're no Dorian sir!

A Great Egret, moments before Dexter chased him skyward...

One of several white members of the Ardeidae (Heron) family present in Florida, the Great Egret is distinguished from the white morph of the Great Blue Heron by having black legs and feet.

Seems like I'm forgetting something...oh yeah,
Good Morning!
6:57 am (10:57 GMT)

Sunrise reflects off the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida - while the new bridge construction continues for a hopeful November opening.

No rain for us yesterday, but I did get the CoCoRaHS rain gauge a day earlier than expected. Now all I have to do is find a 4x4 and set it up. Instructions say the worst place to leave it is in the box - guess I should've read the fine print. Oh well, time to get busy. Have a great day everyone!

98L is not moving as fast as Chantal, it has that going for it. Shear can change, even if shear was light now it can change in hours and days.
1703. VR46L
Quoting 1700. Camille33:

I saw it first.


I thought it was me !
Quoting 1687. Hurricanes305:
Current SAL is thinning out for the last couple of days

Check this out surface chart still indicates that 98L is attached to the monsoon trough/ITCZ.
1705. SLU
Quoting 1657. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thought the LLC was right near the deepest convection, but I guess not.



It's to the east of the convection
Quoting 1702. sporteguy03:
98L is not moving as fast as Chantal, it has that going for it. Shear can change, even if shear was light now it can change in hours and days.


If the shear forecast holds true conditions would be improving for it....if it lives past day 5....if it can keep breathing things might get better for it.
Updated...

1708. pcola57
82Degrees here with 88%rh and dew at 78..
Sunny skies with winds 6 from the WNW..
Heat index at 91degrees..
Webcams are down for some reason..
Gonna be a hot muggy day here..
Quoting 1697. Tazmanian:
this is all most like a EL Nino set up



hurricane season RIP


Taz, you know better then to say that in July. This is not even close to an El Nino set-up.
1710. barbamz
Quoting 1694. aislinnpaps:

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Asparagus Omelet with Shrimp Hollandaise Sauce, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, Pear and Gruyère Strata, crawfish eggs benedict, thick sliced Canadian bacon, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange juice.


Good morning, I've waited for you with this post, lol:

BBC: 23 July 2013 Last updated at 06:53 GMT
Breakfast linked to 'healthy heart'
People should eat breakfast to keep their hearts in good condition, according to researchers in the US.

And I'm waiting for a thunderstorm later on, hopefully!
Quoting 1707. GeoffreyWPB:
Updated...



Looks like they adjusted farther south. as to be expected.
1712. GatorWX
Quoting 1685. weatherlover94:


According to this mornings shear forecast is's suppose to thin out in the coming days

Link


Looks high to me for a developing tc. However, notice the area within, say 600 miles or so surrounding FL. If this develops at all and modestly holds its own, I'd be concerned. Worst case scenario may be a Jeanne track, but it's laughable to think about that yet. Hurricane season is my favorite brain game.
Quoting 1712. GatorWX:


Looks high to me for a developing tc. However, notice the area within, say 600 miles or so surrounding FL. If this develops at all and modestly holds its own, I'd be concerned. Worst case scenario may be a Jeanne track, but it's laughable to think about that yet. Hurricane season is my favorite brain game.


Lol. we need to see if it survives this week before we start thinking about the US lol.
1714. Grothar
Quoting 1701. mikatnight:
Hello Blog!

98L...Dorian? Really? Don't think so. I know Dorian, and you're no Dorian sir!

A Great Egret, moments before Dexter chased him skyward...

One of several white members of the Ardeidae (Heron) family present in Florida, the Great Egret is distinguished from the white morph of the Great Blue Heron by having black legs and feet.

Seems like I'm forgetting something...oh yeah,
Good Morning!
6:57 am (10:57 GMT)

Sunrise reflects off the Intracoastal Waterway in Lantana, Florida - while the new bridge construction continues for a hopeful November opening.

No rain for us yesterday, but I did get the CoCoRaHS rain gauge a day earlier than expected. Now all I have to do is find a 4x4 and set it up. Instructions say the worst place to leave it is in the box - guess I should've read the fine print. Oh well, time to get busy. Have a great day everyone!



Was Dorian a "friend" of his? LOL
This is important to 98L's future.

READ THIS:
Relief is coming by later this week with nicer weather by Thursday, and perhaps Friday and Saturday too before another cold front approaches with storms on Sunday.

CWG.
Quoting 1586. LargoFl:
very hard to catch the right frame but southeast it hits....


This is an invest from July 8th?
Quoting 1699. weatherlover94:


doubtful. And then again it could be a whole lot of nothing that moves west and just brings squally weather to places.
Still impressive for July. This came off Africa with a low well intact with a wide area of convective mass. And its is moistening up the MDR quite a bit. But I would not sleep on this wave especially from what I saw with Chantal. Lol I remember when the Recon was barely finding a circulation and almost everyone RIP Chantal and the troll was feasting on it. Then Recon decided to check out where the convection was located on the northern side and found near hurricane force winds and everyone was eating crow. 
Post 1704. forgot to load the image :P...BTW the blog is loading really slowly and I am annoyed by that. I don't know if the mods see this if they can do anything about it.

Looking more and more like Ike by the run ( in track)

1720. K8eCane
Quoting 1715. washingtonian115:
This is important to 98L's future.

READ THIS:
Relief is coming by later this week with nicer weather by Thursday, and perhaps Friday and Saturday too before another cold front approaches with storms on Sunday.

CWG.



TIMING. Sometimes they ride those fronts right up the coast
You all have to pay for it (CWG services).Here is the weekend:
The weekend is looking somewhat trickier as a cold front approaches the area. Saturday should see partly sunny skies with highs in the middle to upper 80s, but a 30% chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. We%u2019ll still be ahead of the front Saturday night so lows dip down only into the upper 60s to low 70s with moderate humidity. Sunday is expected to see the cold front with more widespread showers and storms, especially by the afternoon. Moderate to maybe high humidity should accompany highs in the middle to upper 80s. Confidence: Medium-High:

Please come baby ,baby come!!!
the SHIPS model is starting to trend slightly upwards with this system, now bringing it to about 45 knots by 5 days out.   

Quoting 1718. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Post 1704. forgot to load the image :P...BTW the blog is loading really slowly and I am annoyed by that. I don't know if the mods see this if they can do anything about it.

See the trough around 30N but the only chance IMO that 98L can start gaining latitude is once it crosses 30W and dislodge itself from the ITCZ by then the ridge may build in.
1725. GatorWX
Quoting 1713. weatherlover94:


Lol. we need to see if it survives this week before we start thinking about the US lol.


I know, but it's fun to think and honestly the best way to learn is from your own failures. the gfs ensembles have noticed, I believe, this feature for quite awhile before dropping it. They always wanted to develop it around Hispaniola/PR. It showed this region as an area to watch for quite a while though. I have just my throttled iPhone right now, slow, so I don't have very much input other than what I read on here, sats and what I can comprehend in my mind.
1726. Mclem1
I am usually pretty good at wishcasting (even if it's mostly to myself because I cant handle the people on here telling me when I'm wrong...it's not something I like to be :-p)

The problem with my wishcasting is all I need is a liiiiittle hope through some weakening shear, increasing moisture, or a past storm that has set the precedent for this one to overcome! Unfortunately...all I see is dry air, heavy shear, and my broken heart.
1727. GatorWX
Quoting 1722. stormchaser19:
Please come baby ,baby come!!!


Remember, when it stays east........
Quoting 1708. pcola57:
82Degrees here with 88%rh and dew at 78..
Sunny skies with winds 6 from the WNW..
Heat index at 91degrees..
Webcams are down for some reason..
Gonna be a hot muggy day here..


After all that rain yesterday no surprise it's so muggy today. I ended up with 4.5" of rain just yesterday, amazing how much rain we've had this year.
I just checked the time for this page to refresh.....

one minute and twenty seconds
(80 seconds)

PATHETIC!


Blog loading ridiculously slow has anyone notice it?
1731. Kyon5

Quoting 1729. CaicosRetiredSailor:
I just checked the time for this page to refresh.....

one minute and twenty seconds
(80 seconds)

PATHETIC!


Ikr. It's really slow, it's getting annoying.
1732. Patrap
Keep in mind I did say that dry air and cooler sst as a result of the dry air and strong ridge to the north would be an inhibiting factor to the development of 98L. But if it survives through that should be able to find favorable conditions as it is approaching the Leeward Islands or just north of there. BTW timing and speed of both the East Coast trough and 98L will be crucial in the long term track of 98L, if the trough comes sooner it has a better chance of lifting out and allowing the ridge to build back in as per the GFS if it comes later it would likely feel the influence of the trough and turn OTS or be a threat to the Canadian Maritimes.
1734. Patrap
It must be a local node as the page is Loading find in Se. Louisiana.

Try a re-start as well.
1735. Grothar
Just as expected. Models moving North of the Islands.


1736. Grothar
Something is slowing down the blog on refresh. My heart beats faster than this.
1737. GatorWX
Quoting 1728. 69Viking:


After all that rain yesterday no surprise it's so muggy today. I ended up with 4.5" of rain just yesterday, amazing how much rain we've had this year.


I think we'll see many top ten wettest summers for lots of folks. I almost want to think this is perhaps more of a harbinger than Chantal was. The amount of precipitately water over the eastern US and surrounding water has seemed very high to me. I can imagine what effect it would have on a strong system.
1738. JRRP
Quoting 1731. Kyon5:

Ikr. It's really slow, it's getting annoying.


The page will load quickly if you click on someones "blog post" on the Community Activity to the right.
1740. barbamz
Quoting 1729. CaicosRetiredSailor:
I just checked the time for this page to refresh.....

one minute and twenty seconds
(80 seconds)

PATHETIC!


I think, they've outsourced the data for refresh requests to a new dev.wounderground-address. At least I haven't noticed this address, which is popping up now, before. Really slow. Maybe in order to cool down this blog in hurricane-season? ;)
1741. Kyon5

Quoting 1739. GeoffreyWPB:


The page will load quickly if you click on someones "blog post" on the Community Activity to the right.
Wow, thanks! It loads quickly now.
1742. GatorWX
Quoting 1738. JRRP:


Watching that convection. Thanks for posting. Persistence, persistence.
1743. Patrap
No, I dont tink datz it at all. We would of had a presser on something like that fer sure
1744. LargoFl
Starting from the West Coast to the Atlantic: Ridge, Trough, Ridge, Trough, Ridge. The Ridge in the Atlantic and the Ridge in the Central Plains looks to want to cause a squeeze play on that front on the East Coast.

Day 7:



1746. Grothar
Quoting 1739. GeoffreyWPB:


The page will load quickly if you click on someones "blog post" on the Community Activity to the right.


Suppose I don't like them?
1747. Patrap
Make sure your own page has not defaulted to Higher comments.
Quoting 1746. Grothar:


Suppose I don't like them?


You are a good friend to all. :)
this is like blogging back in the ninties slow,
1750. Grothar
Quoting 1747. Patrap:
Make sure your own page has not defaulted to Higher comments.


If you look on the bottom left, it seems to get hung up on the tropicaltidbits link.
1751. Patrap
850 mb.



700 mb.



500 mb.

I had to delete about 18 malware in my avast antivirus.There may be a virus infecting the blog,check on this please.
1754. LargoFl
Quoting 1751. Patrap:
Good morning Pat...is that a wobble to the north I see? :D
1756. Patrap
1757. Patrap
Morn...

I havent really looked close yet, still in coming alive mode here.
1758. GatorWX
Quoting 1751. Patrap:


It's not overly hard to discern where the center is and west it goes.

Quoting 1739. GeoffreyWPB:


The page will load quickly if you click on someones "blog post" on the Community Activity to the right.
Tried restarting and clearing cookies in google chrome and clicking on someone's blog post it still loads over 2 minutes. My also reset may internet connection. 
Edit: after testing out the speed by post this comment it took about 1.40 secs
1761. LargoFl
from daytona northward,stay alert to your local warnings,stay safe..
1762. Patrap
If 12 N was Hwy 1, it's running right down the centerline seems this am.

Nice envelope too.

1763. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO ARRIVE ALONG THE COAST TO THE NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS IS
LIKELY AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO REACH THE I-4
CORRIDOR OR EVEN SARASOTA BEFORE MIDDAY. OTHERWISE A FEW MORE
SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE MOVING INLAND TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER AS IS USUAL
DURING THE SUMMER...A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TODAY RESULTING IN MINOR
URBAN AND STREAM FLOODING. SOME LOCAL RIVERS ARE ALSO NEAR OR
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
1764. GatorWX
Quoting 1762. Patrap:
If 12 N was Hwy 1, it's running right down the centerline seems this am.

Nice envelope too.



Indeed, especially west of the center. A nice shield perhaps, or one that'll disappear this afternoon. We'll see. Time marches on.
1765. Patrap
Check dis out.

7/22 PROPHECY *Nostradamus* Quatrain 41
Nostradamus
Century 2 Quatrain 41

The great star for seven days will burn
A cloud will make two suns appear
The big mastiff will howl all night
When a great Pope changes his territory




The Pope arrived in Brazil yesterday

A Son was Born in England

..back to your er, Stormy thingeee.

..ewww, weeee, ewww
Satellite presentation looks like a TD or even a TS. Wonder why it hasn't been classified as such yet.
Quoting 1753. Camille33:
I had to delete about 18 malware in my avast antivirus.There may be a virus infecting the blog,check on this please.




they can check on any thing if you have a virus its likey your laptop and not the blog
1768. 62901IL
Under a slight risk for storms today.
the 12Z models are in. Some show nothing but steady strengthening. Some show it strengthening then slow weakening....others show strengthening then meeting it's death.....very hard to say right now.
Quoting 1766. TimSoCal:
Satellite presentation looks like a TD or even a TS. Wonder why it hasn't been classified as such yet.




it has a long was too go be for 98L is a TD or TS and its window it closeing
Quoting 1758. GatorWX:


It's not overly hard to discern where the center is and west it goes.


yep

Quoting 1762. Patrap:
If 12 N was Hwy 1, it's running right down the centerline seems this am.

Nice envelope too.


yes
1772. hu2007
hi everyone ,the invest 98 look like is getting there but not yet, if you all watch closely you will see on the visible image that the wave/ low is struggling with drier air from the east and some dry easterlie shear from africa, but as it move farther west from africa the system should improve developing but not for long cause there will be an upper trof by friday near the island that as the future dorian moves wnw it may not kill dorian if the storm pass south of 25 and ever get strong like a moderate t.s or stronger if is stay weak it may well avoid the trof by the island passing beneath and move more west as it develops close to the western carribean still a lot could happen but this my thinking after seeing the trend and the maps you guys posted :)
Good morning, Patrap , the center looks like , it's at 12.5 N and 23.5 W ? Let me know , what you see?
Good Morning all,

Doing well today!

Well now, NHC says we have something worth watching in the MDR, season starting for real?
Here is the nice original EUMET African visible satt link shot (again) for the wave showing the evolution through this morning; much slower than the NHC link which tends to run very fast:

Link

Quoting 1774. Autistic2:
Good Morning all,

Doing well today!

Well now, NHC says we have something worth watching in the MDR, season starting for real?
I wouldn't get excited about 98L if I were you.
1777. GatorWX
Quoting 1766. TimSoCal:
Satellite presentation looks like a TD or even a TS. Wonder why it hasn't been classified as such yet.


Convection is warming. They like persistence. Also the path takes it in a much less conducive environment. Today is its window in the short term I think.
Quoting 1737. GatorWX:


I think we'll see many top ten wettest summers for lots of folks. I almost want to think this is perhaps more of a harbinger than Chantal was. The amount of precipitately water over the eastern US and surrounding water has seemed very high to me. I can imagine what effect it would have on a strong system.


I kid you not I've had well over 20" at my house since the beginning of July. I wish I would have kept detailed records to give the exact amount, it's staggering for sure!
F5 taking 75 seconds. Did some one kill or injure the blog today?
1780. 62901IL
Quoting 1779. Autistic2:
F5 taking 75 seconds. Did some one kill or injure the blog today?

Happening to me too!
1781. Patrap


Quoting 1773. EyEtoEyE:
Good morning, Patrap , the center looks like , it's at 12.5 N and 23.5 W ? Let me know , what you see?

12.2N 23.5W that is clear seen on vis sat images
Quoting 1776. washingtonian115:
I wouldn't get excited about 98L if I were you.


Excited, not exactly but it is something, besides a naked ULL to watch!
be back on later.
1785. JRRP
Quoting 1775. weathermanwannabe:
Here is the nice original EUMET African visible satt link shot (again) for the wave showing the evolution through this morning; much slower than the NHC link which tends to run very fast:

Link



Very cool....
1787. GatorWX
Quoting 1778. 69Viking:


I kid you not I've had well over 20" at my house since the beginning of July. I wish I would have kept detail records to give the exact amount, it's staggering for sure!


I wouldn't say it's a staggering amount here in sw fl, but there has been a lot of training storms dumping 3-6 inches in a very short time in isolated areas. There has also been a lot of storms moving in off the gulf which is somewhat unusual although not for this early in the summer. We went about 20 days with rain every single day and about 15-20 inches in that period. Conditions have become a bitter stable and usual in the last week. We certainly haven't had many sea breeze induced tstms like we normally get, but that seems to be changing. Between my area, yours and especially the Carolina's and NE, much rain has fallen on the east.
1788. hu2007
time to work. later guys for more updates :)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1790. Patrap
Its only 7:30 almost in SF with the server so the issue may take a spell to fix.

1791. Grothar
Quoting 1748. GeoffreyWPB:


You are a good friend to all. :)


Thanks for the tip on clicking on the right. This long wait is getting annoying.
PWAT values are good way to measure the amount of precipitation in the atmosphere, not much in the way of the dry air here on this run:

The model intensity must be based on land contact in the Caribbean. No land contact means much stronger.