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African disturbance a threat to become the next tropical storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:04 PM GMT on August 06, 2006

A tropical wave over the mid-Atlantic near 12N 35W, about 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, has the potential to develop into a tropical depression in the next few days. The wave has a very large surface circulation. This circulation has an unusual elongated oval shape, oriented east-west, as one can see in satellite loops and the latest QuikSCAT wind pattern. Surface winds around the circulation were generally an unimpressive 15-20 mph in the 4am EDT QuikSCAT pass, and the wave has only limited thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a favorable 5-10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 27-28 C, plenty warm enough to support development. There is some African dust and dry air to the northwest, but not nearly as much as we saw with Chris last week. Conditions are much more favorable for development than we saw for Chris, and I expect we will see a tropical depression form by Tuesday night.

The computer models take the wave towards the west or west-northwest, bringing it to the Lesser Antilles Islands by Friday or Saturday. The GFDL models intensifies it to a Category 1 hurricane by Friday. Some of the other models are less impressed with the wave; the NOGAPS model doesn't develop it at all.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the mid-Atlantic tropical wave.

Chris looks pretty dead
Satellite imagery this morning shows very little is left of Tropical Depression Chris, just a few scattered thunderstorms near western Cuba stretching northward into the Gulf of Mexico. This activity is expected to move westward through the Gulf of Mexico and wind up near the Texas/Mexico border by Tuesday. Although wind shear is a relatively friendly 5-15 knots over the remains of Chris, there is so little left of it that redevelopment probably does not have time to occur before it moves ashore.

Figure 2. Preliminary model tracks for the remains of Chris.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

well im off to bed. maybe well see a depression in the late morning
1002. stormzz
...uhhh I may have missed something, but am I the only one here who is 99% certain that HC is ST???
good-night all.
As always, my site can stand as a beacon of hope when *ahem* certain people decide to use wunderground as their rant-zone for a while.
"
hi like im chris's older brother and like i am 14 so i have like told him to go to like bed cos he was at the mall all day with his like new girlfriend and he like kissed her and siad he like felt funny so he like told my friend dave like he would go to bed ealry like and get all excited like totally dude like kinda thing....no wot im saying like totally yeah

what a plonker you are chris!"


........riiiiiiight.
Looks like the weather at 12N 40W this am at 3:00 looks like it has a fairly strong cyclonic print already...to my untrained eye.

Methinks next tropical storm...

And if I may venture an opinion among you experts...

I think its going to be quite strong... my laymans mind thinks it looks like too much around for it to feed on and no competition for it....

I would go with the GFDL? that was showing a Cat 1 by Friday.

Baje
My other thought is that sometimes systems develop pretty fast just East of us here in Barbados. I do not know the technical reasons for it, they just did.

Ivan did..and one other in the last two years. Developed from a strong storm up to a Cat 3 in very little time from what I remember. Scared the beejeebies out of us.
Sorry for another post but just looked at the latest loop and this thing is starting to barrel towards us with an obvious cyclonic motion.

Oh boy.
1010. tejdog1
To my untrained eye, this thing is at least a 50 MPH TS.
Lets hope not. I already know I have to go stock up on supplies come Tuesday (Monday is a public hol here in Barbados..Crop Over Festival).

If its 50 mph already, I would say we'd be looking at a CAT 2 passing our way (we are at 13.2N 59.4W.

Cheers
"
To my untrained eye, this thing is at least a 50 MPH TS."

Nah, not that strong. Allow me to break my reasoning down in this IR image:

....which apparently didn't post. Let's try that again:

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Thanks Forecaster Colby.

How long would it 'normally'? take for the convective centers and lows to merge?

Thanks.

I am off back to bed soon..its 4:00 am here.

Later
is there anybody still on here
happy birthday to me
happy birthday to me
HAPPY BIRTHDAY DAZ!!!!!!!!!!!!
thank you
YOUR WELCOME! HAVE A GREAT DAY!!!
stormchaserdaz happy birthday from tornado7
Stormchaserdaz Happy Birthday to you
so are we going to see a td today
1024. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 070900
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON AUG 7 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
1025. SLU
new TD by 11am today for sure
slu how does it look to you
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD


Which one?
1028. SLU
Posted By: tornado7 at 9:12 AM GMT on August 07, 2006.
slu how does it look to you


i think that the center is now located within the deepest convection and there are weak banding features starting to develop so a TD will form today and maybe a storm by late tomorrow if not sooner.
well slu if it does form whats the chance of a cat 3 or higher
1030. SLU
if it moves into the Western Caribbean then .. LOOK OUT!

it could be another Hurricane Emily-like scenario ... well maybe/hopefully not as strong
"How long would it 'normally'? take for the convective centers and lows to merge?"

It depends very much on circumstances. Katrina, for example, took two days. Zeta took hours.
Good Morning
99L is in a situation more favourable, than Alberto, Beryl and Chris.





and I mean 91L
it looks to me that it could become a td at anytime
1035. SLU
that depends on a number of variables

moisture, wind shear, SSTs etc. and how much the convection can develop around the low or if the low reforms near the deep convection
soon to be TD

i agree 100% with you weather456
1038. SLU
Strangely the convection is starting to erode and the system became "too weak to classify" at 06z this morning. There is a tremendous SAL to the north of the system that might be choking it right now.

I think this is all temporary
The few visibles of today, suggest the center is already in the deep convection, but I'll wait for some more frames to confirm.

Or anyone else can comfirm for me.
1040. SLU
yeah it is ... near 12n 41w ... in that general area but wait for the 12z satellite classifications first
Well SAL maybe there but its not affecting 91L


Water Vapor Imagery
I was looking around and noticed there is low pressure in the eastern south Atlantic around 10S that is pumping mointure arcross the Equator
There is some dry air over the Equator.I'm wondering if equatorial upwelling keeps that drier air high enough in the atmosphere, so it does not impead the moisture feeding into the North Atlantic?
weather456 it looks to me that the center is in the deep convection
If you look at this loop...you can see a well-defined system.
Good morning guys....91L continue's to look impressive on visisable imagery....







Here's Another shot of 91L useing RGB imagery...


1047. IKE
The center DOES look like it's in the deep convection...to be honest, that's what I thought last night...heading west...cruising along...
Not as impressive as it was just a few hours ago.
Morning gang. Maybe a TD. NHC will of course drag this out till it is almost a hurricane.
there goes my weekend
Morning mrpuertorico. Let's see what happens.
buenos dias randrewl well here's hoping it passes to our north or south and only produces some nice 7 to 8 foot swells
91L is dead, or will be soon at this rate:

07/0545 UTC 11.7N 38.2W TOO WEAK 91L
06/1745 UTC 11.7N 36.0W T1.0/1.5 91L
06/1145 UTC 12.0N 33.1W T1.5/1.5 91L

Link
Models for 91L...


Right now there is a very well defined LLC at 12.5/40.2...Nice banding forming with convection mostly over the western side. We will see how long the nhc takes to upgrade.
I don't think the NHC will upgrade it when SSD says that it is too weak to even have a Dvorak classification (see my last post).
Looks like 91L is moving slightly south of due west. models will probably shift south a little bit. This reminds me of Ivan and Charley they also started out real deep in the tropics and swung there way up to the N. could be interesting for FL
If they do upgrade 11am is the absolute earliest anything could happen, and if anything was to happen today, 5pm is the more logical bet.
I don't know why they keep saying that organization is improving; either SSD is correct and it is weakening, or the Dvorak estimates are broken and the NHC is correct (it does appear to be stronger than "too weak").
We need a good scat on this. That might have something to do with intensity numbers.
MichaelSTL I agree there is no way this thing looks more impressive.
New discussion is out.
Guys The LLC is under the cdo like area of convection. There is banding starting to fire over the eastern part. Which might be a sign that the eastly shear is weaking.
Good Morning guys... certainly alot of action in the west pacLink
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N38W
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST TO WEST OF THIS LOW CENTER FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW
CENTER MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
36 HOURS.


I say if the current trend continue's the NHC will porbably upgrade 91L to a TD later today.
Look at that GFDL dive!

cloudtops have warmed with 91L.....
Randrewl iam not puting to much into that GFDL run right now.Lets wait to see if other model's suggest a similar senerio in the coming model runs.
morning weather 456
NHC will keep saying just what they have been. They're not willing to say much more about this being way out like it is. A system has to already be awesome or closer in before they like to classify. Something big would have to happen for them to classify anytime soon.
morning to you too, stormhank
1074. nash28
Good morning 456.
nice blog adrian. very useful info and links
1076. nash28
Good morning hurricane23.
Good Morning Nash28,

I believe the models and some experts are underestimating the conditions around 91L, and the future of those conditions, just like they did with Chris.
According to this, wind shear is around 20 kts; this map says it is a lot lower.
Good morning Nash28.
Who here thinks this could possibly affect the FL west coast?
1082. nash28
Yeah 456. None of the models have 91L becoming much of anything just like Chris. Should be a TD sometime today if it can continue to wrap convection. What does the morning QuickScat say?
1083. nash28
G35Wayne: 91L is too far out to debate if it will even threaten the US coast. If it were to develop and move toward the western tip of Cuba, then we can talk about west coast of FL. Not anywhere near that point yet. It still has to develop.
Did not get a good updated Quicksat pass....
1085. nash28
Thanks 456.
g35 no one on this blog could tell u that the system is to far out and there are to many variables to consider right now the focus is on the antilles and how it will possibly affect us
Wind Shear:

michealst like the map....pretty colors :)
1089. nash28
Looks like shear isn't too prohibitive. Only 10kts.
here guys take a look at the steering currents Link
you can really see where the "dive" might take place
Ive herd that NOAA will release their updated hurricane outlook this week. Im thinkin thier numbers will come down like DR. Grays did
Morning ya'll.

I see 91L is trudging along through the Central Atlantic. THe last GFDL run was pretty interesting taking it in to SA. I also noticed that it was not as aggressive with strength. It will be interesting to see whta the next several runs hold, although I would expect to see it become a TD before to long-IMAmatuerO

See ya'll later

StormJunkie.com-Forecast models, imagery, mnarine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.

StormJunkie
Most impressive 91L looks. TD I fear it is. Close eye we must keep.
Over the last few frames on infrared imagery convection is starting to spread over to the eastern side of 91L Lets see if it persist.
well look like 91L is looking well today any thing new with it? i her it could be come a TD today
1097. rxse7en
Many Bothans died getting these satellite images in...
Yes, persist it will. Upgrade, NHC will do. Much disturbance I feel. No wind shear. Things have changed.
What causes them to classify a storm as a TD?
when is it going to be TD guys!! Ive been waiting since yesterday.
Feel the storm grow. Concentrate young Skywatchers.
Closed circulation a TD is. Just wind shift it is not.
30 mph winds and i forgot:)
Storm FAQ's.
3 hours ago (left); now (right):



Convection has been decreasing.
wha time do think we will have a TD definately?
Doesn't it have to have a pressure lower than 1012 also? I think 1012 is the ambient sea level pressure.
my be but that well come back at any time with the day time hete
Do you guys think it will refire up storms and become a TD?
Another visible shot at 91L...


Posted By: Tazmanian at 5:26 AM PDT on August 07, 2006.
my be but that well come back at any time with the day time hete


If you mean daytime heating, no. Thunderstorms over land are fueled by daytime heating; storms over water are the exact opposite. Why? Because land is hotter than the air during the day and water is hotter than tha air during the night, creating instability.
Randrewl, I guess pressure dosn't really matter in the early stages. Is it relative to the pressure of the region until we have a significantly more powerful storm?
My guess is that it becomes a td today or tommorow and hit the antilies by friday and by late next week the us and maybe a hurricane.
cajunkid Pressure now is between 1009-1011mb. Well within the parameters for a TD.
it looks weaker today
HEy guys give an update on 91l and when does Dr Jeff give his update thanks.
Guys here is a high resolution image of 91L.


Cool image !!:)
When does dr jeff update
The Dr. updates whenever.
He usually updates @ 9 to 10am cst.
THanks:)
Put a little hotsauce on it GS..you won't know the difference - Tabasco is the best, but Texas Pete will work too!
Number is back up.

07/1145 UTC 12.2N 40.5W T1.0/1.0 91L
000
WHXX01 KWBC 071240
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060807 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060807 1200 060808 0000 060808 1200 060809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.1N 40.4W 13.2N 42.7W 14.2N 45.3W 15.1N 47.9W
BAMM 12.1N 40.4W 12.8N 42.8W 13.4N 45.7W 13.7N 48.8W
A98E 12.1N 40.4W 12.4N 43.8W 13.0N 47.1W 13.7N 50.1W
LBAR 12.1N 40.4W 12.9N 43.3W 13.9N 46.1W 14.5N 48.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060809 1200 060810 1200 060811 1200 060812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 50.5W 16.4N 55.3W 17.6N 58.4W 18.1N 60.4W
BAMM 13.9N 52.1W 14.5N 58.9W 16.3N 65.0W 17.9N 70.8W
A98E 14.5N 52.7W 16.1N 57.2W 17.7N 61.1W 19.1N 64.8W
LBAR 14.7N 51.7W 14.7N 57.0W 15.2N 61.4W 19.2N 66.4W
SHIP 37KTS 45KTS 49KTS 55KTS
DSHP 37KTS 45KTS 49KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 40.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 36.7W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 34.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Except for the GFDL the current model tracks look similar to were CHRIS was.
SO whats up guys with 91l
well, i likes durkee's "red hot".... they even have "extra-hot".... its cayenne pepper bases.... more flavor!

tastes pretty good on my crow too.... but in reality, Chris was a coin toss of sorts, i dare say.....

seems with the shear conditions and ULL's, forecasting will be more difficult!
wind shear is ripping it appart!!
Hey guys do me a favor and look at 91l in a visible satilite loop it looks funky:)
wow


what wind shear it is gone!
The tracks do look familiar hurricane23. Like you said earlier the GFDL will most likely come around also.
Randrewl so it is back up too T 1.0 now right
1134. stormzz
Morning all...
Off to work, but a quick update. Looks to me like this little storm is holding it's own. Still a lot of convection in the upper and mid levels, but weak in the lower levels. Shear is considerable as seen last night, but disruption and reformation further to the east. Looks a little better today for development, but still being beat upon consistently. I too though, think it will be a TD within 12 hours. I'm not thinking that this will be a big storm, if current conditions persist. Be back later, lurking during the day! Have a good one.
Good morning does anyone know what criteria the tpc needs to call 91L a TD?
1136. GPTGUY
Is there any inhibiting factors out there now keeping 91L from becoming a TD?
does anyone know when it will be a Td my gues is today if not definately tomorrow Agree?
1138. stormzz
Taz, satellite is picking up some winds in the mid and a considerable amount of shear in the upper levels. It's just not quite gone like the map says it should be. oops?? See ya'll later..
wind shear is keeping it from TD status!
Tropical Depression
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained wind speed (using the U.S. 1 minute average standard) is 33 kt (38 mph, 17 m/s). Depressions have a closed circulation.
KeyWestStormWatch for a TD you need 30 to 35mph for a TS you neeed 40 mph and for a hurricane you need 74 mph
Somthing is hurting 91l and its name is shear!
Randrewl so this is a TD with 38 mph winds? for 91L?
Morning Tazmanian. We have no TD right now. Have to have a confirmed closed circulation. Estimated winds now are 28mph. Pressure 1009mb
Ok so if the storm survives the shear do things look favorable down the road???
Posted By: Tazmanian at 6:04 AM PDT on August 07, 2006.



what wind shear it is gone!


Ummm... I use this map for shear (it was more accurate with Chris):

Shouldnt it be a Td yet? the NHC is wierd and they dont really know whats going down with it.
whats that disturbance north of Puerto Rico??
Randrewl thanks all most there by 5pm toay well have a td and a ts by 8pm tonight
how do you know Tazmanian can you read blobs lol.
Hey Taz I agree with you but the nhc wont.
chessrascal i this have this funny feeling it will and a funny feeling when and if a td pop up this will be more then a TD
stormchasher the nhc are foools
I wish nhc could be as sure as you are.
chessrascal yes i do to
I agree with Tazmanian on his statement:the nhc are foools
NHC are not fools. There is no need to rush into a classification this far out. Besides 91L is clearly not a TD yet.
its trying to close its circulation but it can't do it do to shear (YET).
tell that to evere one in LA the nhc are foools they did a vary worg thing
has convection moved over the center yet?? it looks to me that convection is decreasing
Posted By: Tazmanian at 6:31 AM PDT on August 07, 2006.
tell that to evere one in LA the nhc are foools they did a vary worg thing


Are you talking about Katrina? Blame AccuWeather for all the deaths; here is why.
Just lookin at 91L on the lates loop, doesnt it look like new thunderstorms are popping up where the circulation is thought to be? My guess is its trying its best to get its act together, hence the big blobs we saw yesterday dying down and a new one forming slowly over where the center may be.
Just a thought...
Id say TD by 5pm or 5am tomorrow
dos it like to me lol

chessrascal if there is any shear it vary little to none at all
Im with Gulf, but maybe a little later then 4 hours still... the NHC likes to take these things cautiosly.
Whats up with the wave behind it? Nobody is mentioning it, did it die?
MichaelSTL yes the nhc are foools
i think GulScotmans right. That is a great image!
what is everyones thoughts? is the new burst of convection starting where the center is?
The NHC are not fools! AccuWeather and anybody who listens to them are (please see my link showing how bad they were with Katrina and made thousands who are no longer alive think that they were safe in New Orleans).
I take it back, id say 78.4% its a TD before tomorrow.
I agree MichaelSTL!
Another ULL is dropping down on 91L, kinda like when Chris was obliterated. 91L looks like another microstorm at this point too. See the ULL diving southward? Not sure if it will strike 91L but its pace and direction make it look like it may shear 91L...
i hop New Orleans dos not get hit this year
By the way. What made the models change their minds? Why arents they calling for a due west anymore? Do they think itll get stronger and be able to go north and pull a Chris on us or what?
Centered visible satellite image:



Enhanced IR, showing intensity and location of convection:

NRL shift the center of 91L more west
hopping won't do any good Tazmanian lol!
1180. edaurdo
These systems this far out always seem to choke during the day and only really pick up if they have had a good all night session!
I think this will go to td by 5am tom. then td by 5pm tom.
I wonder why anybody would want to pay AccuSux $250 a year (scroll down to see the prices) for inaccurate forecasts and to hear Joe Bastard(i)?
Weather456 that mean its going for the gulf or S FL?
There is not that much shear, I think it just needs to gain some latitude.Link
them crazy models are the devil!
chessrascal 1st New Orleans got hit by a hurricane then 2nd they got hit by a F2
lol man yall crazy in here

all we can do is wait and watch

models flop allt he time ebcause we donlt ahve all the data, w ehave very little data so any forcast or track for the distirbance will be a enducated guess if that.

there does appear to be a strong surface circulation but the loss of deep convection is a problem. Maybe this is due to dry air as shear is light though there could be some more shear int he midlayers undercutting t-stomr growth. either is possible

all w e can do is watch.

updated my blog pop in and say hi
To those who have never seen a hurricane...lines from a Jimmy Buffett song comes to mind...Dont try to descibe the ocean if you have never seen it...........

Nobody can say what these are and what they can do unless they have lived them.....They can try but they may just end up WRONG...
Many are underestimating the conditions around 91L.

The further that stays undevelop, the likely the chances it enters the C'bbean Sea.

I would have rather had a 90mph fish storm, than a potential hurricane in the C'bbean Sea. Not to scare anyone, but if That hits the C'bbean Sea, big trouble.
They did research during Rita on the tall chimneys that form right before rapid intensification. They think there is a relationship. I don't have it with me right now, but you read a little about it this months National Geographic.
91L looks exactly what Chris looked like before it was classified as a depression, SE of the Northern Antilles.


Chris:
Chris


91L:
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
unless 91L gaines convection soon and can hold it chances of it becoming a TD today or tom. is slipping away
so when there be a td please reply.
weather456 theres nothing saying if it develops now it will be a fish storm. theres nothing saying it will develop.infact if it develops it would be ahrder to steer and likley head into the carribean sea.

right now i canlt find any model that forcasts this stor, to get above ts strength. right now allw e can do si wait and watch
Gulf,,please My mother inlaws house is there...dont tell me what a hurricane is ..YOU HAVE NEVER SEEN ONE...I have been thrugh the NE quad and into the eye of a CAT3 "Frederic"..was in CAMILLE ,KATRINA and IVAN...what storm have you seen??
well close, they look somewhat a like. the first pic is actually of chris after becoming a depression.

91L is just tightening and its starting a new burst on convection. id say depression by tonight around 11, or tomorow before 5 p.m
1200. refill
Good morning.. in Puerto Rico one TV weather reporter(a woman)says 91L will hit PR by thrusday....please nobody know that..
1202. ricderr
Gulf, I agree with you but my .02 adds this inclusion...

If it's a storm..and you're in the 5 day "cone of error" ( that sounds so ominous ) pay close attention to the storm and if you are not already prepared, get it done.
u know i was reminded of how powerfull these things are when Jeanne came to Puerto Rico. it was only a 70mph ts but it felt like a 150mph hurricane. i hadnt been able to actually SEE it happen because on the last one (Georges) we had shutters, but for Jeanne we could see outside. wow... it makes u feel insignificant... with all that and only 70mph it downed alot of trees that seemed to be strong, did alot of damage to the farmers, who couldnt claim insurance because it wasnt a hurricane, only by 5mph, but still, they couldnt get any help and lost alot of $$$$ --bummer--
benirica...Thanks for that information. I hadn't realized the insurance problem there. Jeanne was quite a different storm. I live half a mile from Florida landfall.
1206. refill
benirica I agree. Jeanne was like a hurricane when its hit PR as a TS
are the new storms wrapping around the center??
is the center in between the new convection and old convection, or is it under the new burst?
GPTGUY

Yeah the disturbance is getting some sheer at the present moment. There is also some dry air towards the south and northwest of the disturbance that may hinder its development. It's not too far from becoming a tropical depression though as long as the sheer decreases and as long as there isnt much interaction between the storm and its surrounding dry air.
new blog is up.......
A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

where did that come from...