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African disturbance 92L chugs west; California fires generating significant pollution

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:40 PM GMT on July 02, 2008

A strong tropical wave (Invest 92L) is a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verde Islands. This low has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week as it moves westwards at 15-20 mph. The low is under about 5-10 knots of wind shear, which is favorable for development. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, which is about 2-3°C above average for this date, and well above the 26°C threshold for tropical storm formation. There is not much African dust or dry air near the storm, but the low appears much as it did yesterday, with little heavy thunderstorm activity. The low has plenty of spin, as seen on this morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1). One 35 mph (30 knot) wind vector was noted to the southwest of the storm's center in the QuikSCAT data, so 92L is kicking up some strong winds. There aren't really any negatives for development, except for climatology--there has never been a tropical depression that has formed east of 34° longitude in the first half of July (see the first image I posted in my July Atlantic hurricane outlook). NHC is giving a medium (20-50% chance) that 92L will develop into a tropical depression by Friday afternoon. All the models are developing this system into a tropical depression by Saturday. Wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to remain below 10 knots for the next four days, and the waters will stay warm (above 26°C) for the next 2-3 days of 92L's life. None of the computer models foresee that 92L will become a threat to land, and it currently appears that the storm will recurve in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, east of Bermuda.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT image of 92L from 3:12am EDT Wed July 2, 2008. Image credit: Paul Chang, NOAA/NESDIS/ORA.

California fires cause significant air pollution
It was a destructive April, May, and June for fires in California, with 889,000 acres burned (71% of this acreage since June 20!) This is over five times the acreage burned during the same months in 2007. Satellite-detected fires from April through June this year totaled over 13,000, compared to only 1,200 during the same time period in 2007. These fires have caused many cities in the state to exceed the EPA's daily standard of 35 µg/m3 for particulate air pollution (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Location of all satellite-detected fires from last year (left panel) and this year (right panel) for the months of April through June, along with the number of days when surface particle pollution exceeded EPA's daily standard in several major cities in California. Image credit: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

Air quality is improving this week in California due to the onset of west-southwesterly winds aloft that have enhanced mixing and dispersion in the atmosphere. The moist flow of air off the ocean has brought fog and raised humidity levels, aiding firefighting efforts. However, with fire season's peak still months away, expect many more fires and significant pollution episodes later this summer.

Jeff Masters

Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

wrong pic earlier...sorry.
True colors
I love this blog! Soooo entertaining!
1991. fire635 10:42 AM EDT on July 03, 2008

I think it is something else that develops but, the timing seems to be about the timing of 93L
Morning all :~)
Verbal ping pong! Ugh, here we go. Where are the mature folks? Good grief! Crap like all that just kills good tropical discussion.

Y'all have fun kiddies!

MLC <--------------------- O U T!

2007. Drakoen
2002. Weather456 2:50 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
True colors


Yep someone is showing their true colors. Honestly I can't stand it.
Lol always something interesting going on here...
2009. Patrap



Free and informative as you blog the wunderground.

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Good Morning SJ! How are you?
2011. NEwxguy
some days in here,have trouble deciding if this is a tropical blog or myspace.
Morning SJ! Waiting for the next advisory?
Drak neither can I. It's sad.
Bertha on the NHC Site.
2015. Patrap
Cindy Lauper..does "True Colors".

Good tune.
Morning Sc

Sure TN, why not. Always waiting for the next tidbit of data :~)
UPDATE: Tropical Storm Bertha has formed.
2019. Patrap
"Big Bertha" is the designated "Ping"
2020. OUSHAWN
Tampa...

The GFS nailed Bertha so maybe we should be paying attention to it...especially since txalwaysprepared and I are right in line for whatever it is that the GFS is showing to come in. I know right now shear is still too high in the GOM so I'm not sure if it will pan out but we will see.
This blog is a lot more mild mannered compared to some adult blogging I've seen in the past :o)

Anyway, I hope 93L stays just like it is!

Happy 4th All!!!
2022. NEwxguy
ok,TS now,watch this blog light up now
000
WTNT22 KNHC 031452
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2008

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BERTHA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 24.7W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 24.7W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 24.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 26.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.7N 29.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.6N 32.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.6N 35.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
------------------------------------
Hmm i think we have Bertha! lol
2024. IKE
2003. MTCseadrifter 9:51 AM CDT on July 03, 2008 Hide this comment.
I love this blog! Soooo entertaining!


It always has been...when you have time look up some of Dr. Masters archived blogs from last summer...you'll read some posts that are so similar to posts you read on this blog.


2001.

Still don't see a circulation there.
1968. if this were china, it would be the creature from the green lagoon! LOL

Green Slime Attack Threatens Olympics

china....leaders in the green revolution!
2028. Patrap
Big Bertha on the Low Cloud Product Visible.
Large Image. Link

WV too,Link
2029. MahFL
Its definitely Bertha.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?5day?large#contents
2020. OUSHAWN 10:54 AM EDT on July 03, 2008

Bloggers can talk whatever they want, but when something is 2 weeks out and something of a possiblity is so close.....its amazing what gets more attention.......if someone posts a possiblity...they you a big dumb a_s
The GFS nailed both Arthur and Bertha. It seems to be doing well this year. And picking up system weeks before. Increase my faith for the rest of the year.
Let the wild rumpus start! So Bertha has set a record for the furthest east storm so early.

In fact Bertha would be darned far to the east anytime of the year.
Ahh, the birth of a new tropical storm...any bets on how many "I don't care what the modeling says, it'll be a CAT5 in Miami!" comments we see in the next 4 hours?
2025. Looks like an open-wave to me.
LOL @ Floodman! so true...SO true ;]
Climatology sucks. Drake Ike and all the folks that pushed the models you are right. Hello Bertha
2030. jphurricane2006 10:57 AM AST on July 03, 2008

If he is what you just said, why the sudden change. huh????
2039. IKE

2034. Floodman 9:58 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
Ahh, the birth of a new tropical storm...any bets on how many "I don't care what the modeling says, it'll be a CAT5 in Miami!" comments we see in the next 4 hours?


From some of the same folks who believed the models when it showed Bertha forming a week before it did....now will doubt the models because of the path they show.....

99% chance...it's a fishie.....
2034
I thought that if 92L became Bertha early on, well that would send her out to join her fish friends...Wouldn't she have a better chance if she took a few more days to soak up some energy while heading west?
I remembered Drak was all over this one, weeks before, when alot was skeptical, including myself. CUDOS
000
WTNT32 KNHC 031454
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BERTHA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.7 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

WHILE THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY...OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...13.3 N...24.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Once Bertha reaches more favorable SSTs after 48 hours I wouldn't be surprised if she briefly became a hurricane before shear increases.
2044. Drakoen
2037. leftovers 2:59 PM GMT on July 03, 2008
Climatology sucks. Drake Ike and all the folks that pushed the models you are right. Hello Bertha


The GFS remains the king over the computer forecast models.
Bertha is a fishstorm but i dont trust 93L.
2047. OUSHAWN
Tampa...

I may not have near the knowledge that most have on here but I do know that being here on the Texas coast how quickly a storm can form...i.e. Alicia and Allison. You and I see things the same on this.
Time to start taking bets on where Cantore will end up. Gotta love that guy!
2049. Patrap
Listen young posters.I come here for a few moments ,if ya scroll up or down,and I catch grief for just being here, from a troll accusation to whatever,

Take a Hike,

I dont need to be here.But I enjoy it.
No one rules the roost here, and I can assure you, I dont nor try.
I got my message about too much Posting here years ago from Jeff Masters.
I respect his Blog,I dont try to make it mine.

So if ya dont like me, or my postings, Use the sight reporting tools or the iggy feature.

Now..anything else?
03/1200 UTC 13.1N 24.0W T2.5/2.5 02L


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.4 2.6 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 0.0mb

Center Temp : -51.9C Cloud Region Temp : -44.1C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.04^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


2045. jphurricane2006 11:02 AM AST on July 03, 2008
456 I dont think he has the right to come on here and tell us what we should or should not do, but to me it doesnt take away from the great information he provides on his blog


ok Jp....I'll leave it as that. he got offended by hs2006 and taking it out on the blog. Thats his problem not mines.
Fox News just talked about TS Bertha. MSNBC.com has it as breaking news.
2047. OUSHAWN 11:03 AM EDT on July 03, 2008

I'm with ya......things will be changing here also in a day...watch how people jump......its funny.
2055. IKE
2053. extreme236 10:06 AM CDT on July 03, 2008
Fox News just talked about TS Bertha. MSNBC.com has it as breaking news.


You mean FOX noise?

Breaking news! OMG! LOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLO
2056. fire635
Can anyone recall if Bertha set the record? I can't remember what the record was for eastern Atlantic formations this time of year
Good morning all...

It looks like everyone needs to take a few deep breaths and relax!

My understanding is that there is too much shear for 93L to develop at this point... am I wrong?
2055.

LOL Faux News
Good Morning All! Now don't everybody get rattled by one or two people.. Mark it, leave it alone and get back to the weather.
2057. smmcdavid 11:09 AM EDT on July 03, 2008

Shear has been decreasing in its path.....but, most is worried about a storm that is 2 weeks out.......LMAO
2062. IKE
From the latest discussion on Bertha...

"Bertha is located to the south of a mid-level ridge over
the eastern Atlantic and model guidance is in fairly good agreement
on a continued west-northwestward track during the next 2-3 days.
Thereafter...the models suggest that Bertha will approach a
weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The
GFS...HWRF...and GFDL models therefore show a northwestward turn
late in the forecast period. The new official forecast is a little
faster and north of the previous track and is close to a consensus

of the GFDL...GFS...HWRF...and ECMWF models."
Hey sp you aced water temp. Lots of tropical time this yr for sure.
2057. smmcdavid

You're right...modeling indicates it'll be dead in 2-3 days
2056. fire635 11:09 AM AST on July 03, 2008
Can anyone recall if Bertha set the record? I can't remember what the record was for eastern Atlantic formations this time of year


According to the 1st 2 weeks of July.

How do I use the ignore feature??? Can you use it to reduce the number of posts you have to go thru to read about the invests during hurricane season...Not that I want to ignore anyone :}
Well Bertha looks to give a nice boost to the ACE since it looks to be around for at least a week.
2034.

124.6
2063. Patrap 11:11 AM EDT on July 03, 2008

Wow....maybe look in the mirror....lol
Thanks Tampa! I'm more concerned about the possible storm closer to home because it has a greater chance of affecting me. I do understand the excitement about the stronger of the two though.

So, basically at this point it's hit or miss on whether 93L will form... depending on what happens with the shear? Are all the other conditions favorable?
2067. ajcamsmom2 11:12 AM AST on July 03, 2008
How do I use the ignore feature??? Can you use it to reduce the number of posts you have to go thru to read about the invests during hurricane season...Not that I want to ignore anyone :}


yep yep yep
456 let us move on sometimes it is better to ignore stupidity than to engaged it. it only makes the offender feel important
now to weather i see 93L is fighting like a soldierand doing well under high wind shear.
you did promise to make your assesment of 93L when you saw more visible pics. what are your impressions now/
I think Bertha has broken the record that Bertha made in 1996.
Morning sm :~)

greater chance of affecting me

There you go again, all about you huh ¿~))
2071. smmcdavid 11:13 AM EDT on July 03, 2008

Yep here is a GFS loop..look at Texas on about the july 7-8 time frame...Link
Hi SJ! Would expect anything else from someone so awesome? Duh... LOL

What are your thoughts?
2081. OUSHAWN
Good morning smmcdavid!

Looks like the GFS is forecasting something right on top of us in the next few days. Need to wait and see what the GFS shows on its next run to see if it will be persistant on it.
2082. roxycc
I hope Cantore shows up in Corpus, last summer he did along with lots of other news crews. We were sailing around behind them in the Marina waiving at the camera as they told the veiwers at home about the impending doom and gloom. It never even rained!
Hi jp and oushawn...

Yes, it looks like we will have a wet fourth of july after all! Ahhh. I'm still going out on the boat!
Too early for me to have any thoughts one way or another on Bertha, 93, or the GFS Humberto.
Tampa, I'm with SMMC. If the shear decreases, 93L could have a chance. I worry about the ones far out this close to home makes me nervous.!
2045, 2049 & 2052:
Gentlemen, I love you guys to death. I have been on here for a long time. Usually I watch and learn. You three are a big part of what gets me excited about tropical weather in the first place. EVERYONE has their opinion, and suggestions. Only mother nature herself will deal out what she wants, when she wants and where she wants. (Remember SHE is a WOMAN) Either way all of you have been right about somethings and wrong too. Please do not let the people ruff your feathers, or ruin this for you. ou enjoy TD,TS,HURR or any wave that will pop up into a possible. I have learned too much and yearn for more...DO NOT STOP doing what you are doing. Enjoy each others minds and realize..one of you will be right and take it for that.

Love you guys!!!!

Monica

Back to Bertha...
CNN just mentioned Bertha and how its ironic that it broke its own record lol
Ah SJ, are you planning on running for office one day?
OUSHAWN smmcdavid
I agree- It really does need to be watched! It doesnt take the drama of a hurricane to give us a nightmare-Allison proved that!


Amazing how similar politics and tropical forecasting are huh sm ☺
Well, we do need the rain around here. I'm good with anything that doesn't require evacuation. LOL
2093. Patrap
EFS 1000/500 HPa Mean Thickness and SLP DisplaysLink
As an outsider, that only read the blog, and very seldom give an opinion, wht i see here is lots of competition,(a guess whose the best game),instead of sharing analisys and knowledge.
Got to get myself to work. See y'all this evening.

Quick Links-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.
QUSHAWN WHERE DO YOU LIVE
Hey guys....I'm impressed with 93L's visible satellite signature considerign the shear it's having to deal with. I wouldn't be so quick as to write this guy off quite yet. Conditions down the road may change and allow for a more symetrical building of convection. Right now highest cloud tops of mostly North and East of the center.
True SJ! Hey red, good to have another Texan on the blog.
2094.

Sometimes, but not always...Tis the nature of the beast.

The GFS nailed both Arthur and Bertha. It seems to be doing well this year. And picking up system weeks before. Increase my faith for the rest of the year.


The GFS and GFDL were amazingly accurate last year as we watched Dean and then Felix bear down on us. We watched them with Alma/Arthur (or was she a different name in the WPac?) and they were spot on too. Dunno how that model does with CONUS storms, but for Mexico and Central America, we're sticking with that model. Sunny dad here on the Caribbean...
New blog
2063. Patrap 11:11 AM EDT on July 03, 2008
And for the record..some,like myself..have more eyewall Hours in Canes than some have years on the Planet.


That aint boasting,thats just plain ol Fact.
So get over yerselves.

Ya not as savvy sometimes as ya think.

Ya know, that doesnt mean you have any more right to be rude on this blog than anyone else. It just means you are full of yourself.
Everyone opinion hold weight, just some more than others.



2074. stoormfury 11:14 AM AST on July 03, 2008

Yep i did look at the visibles and 93L is taking a pounding. The LLC that was so define yesterday near Barbados ahs become more ill-define but still detectable in the SW corner of the skewed convective mass. The reason why I cant discount it yet is becuz wind shear may lift to allow it do something in 72 hrs time (it will still be in the cbbean). But for now it just does seem possible with wind shear so high.
Don't know if anyone posted this yet..

This was taken 3 hours ago by Terra IR.

Reposted from other blog..


3 Hours ago.. Terra IR.

Wow, Bertha II, broke the record of Bertha I, hope that doesn't hit us in the northen island as the previous Bertha did.