WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Adieu to Danny

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:50 AM GMT on August 29, 2009

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. With the 5AM EST update, NHC has discontinued issuing the tropical storm watches and will no longer issue any updates about the storm. Danny has gone extratropical and has merged with a frontal low off the Carolina coast. The most recent aircraft reconnaissance flight was unable to find a cyclonic circulation or tropical storm force winds in the remnants of Danny.

That isn't to say that Danny's remnants don't pose an element of risk for the East Coast. High surf from large swells is expected along the East Coast. New England can expect to see a lot of rain as Denny's remnants fly by.

Invest 94L

Invest 94L is still out near South America, but it's convective activity seems to be cycling down right now. The global models (GFS and GEM) do pull 94L (to be precise, a feature that could be 94L) north of the Lesser Antilles. Given how the GFDL has performed with other Invests this season, I can wait a day or so before they run the GFDL for this storm.

East Pacific and elsewhere

For those of you wanting to look at tropical storms, Jimena has just formed in the Eastern Pacific basin. The track uncertainty is fairly large, so I'll be keeping an eye on this storm to see if it will impact Mexico or the American Southwest. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Krovahn looks like it will be grazing the Japanese coastline just east of Tokyo Bay.

I'll give Invest94L a chance to see the Sun and then I'll update this entry.

Update:1545 EDT

G'afternoon everybody, Invest94L has perked up a little since this's morning blog entry. In my judgment, the extent and peak magnitude of convection has increased, and scatterometer data shows that Invest94L has a weak cyclonic circulation. Here's the 9Z ascending pass:

Quickscat Pass over Invest94L
Figure 1Ascending Quikscat pass centered over Invest94L at 9Z Aug 29 2009.

There will be a big update tonight after the 00Z model cycle data comes in.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

half the models plow jimena into mexico.

Shift in the models:

Would someone care to explain how jimena just intensified alot higher than the 80kt originally predicted?
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Would someone care to explain how jimena just intensified alot higher than the 80kt originally predicted?


Don't watch the Pacific much, but Jimena is headed for cat 4 status and may skim along the S. Baja coast. Just as well it's not densely populated like the northern part of it.

I noted some days ago that sea temperatures in some parts of the far east Pacific are an incredible 5C above normal, presumably due to El Nino.
94L looks pretty weak now, looks like that means a more westerly track for the meantime. Not looking good
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Would someone care to explain how jimena just intensified alot higher than the 80kt originally predicted?


the possibilities in the weather are endless
94L back to orange again

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
515 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

1. UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1075
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JIMENA (EP132009)
9:00 AM UTC August 29 2009
=============================

SUBJECT: Interest in Western Mexico and the southern Baja California should monitor the progress of "Jimena"

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Jimena (965 hPa) located at 16.0N 105.7W or 265 NM south of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico has sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane-Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Gale/Storm-Force Winds
========================
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.8N 106.8W - 110 kts (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.9N 107.9W - 125 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.9N 110.0W - 120 kts (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 24.5N 111.9W - 100 kts (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN (EP142009)
9:00 AM UTC August 30 2009
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Kevin (1000 hPa) located at 14.1N 121.9W or 865 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
================
55 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.7N 121.9W - 50 kts (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: 15.5N 121.4W - 50 kts (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.9N 120.2W - 40 kts (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 18.3N 119.1W - 40 kts (Tropical Storm)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
15:00 PM JST August 30 2009
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression "CP022009" (1006 hPa) located at 15.0N 178.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

---
Poor cyclone is struggling now

The latest models ran on 94L are on crack :) GFS especially. You can throw those all out.
2012. ackee
see 94L now has medium chance of develop can someone show centre of 94L seem like trying to come under the convection
2013. 789
Quoting markymark1973:
The latest models ran on 94L are on crack :) GFS especially. You can throw those all out.
is it going fish then
I don't think many on here are interested in tropical depressions in the western Pacific, but if you just like cutting and pasting for the hell of it . . . .
2015. 789
those are the two runs ,those will be thrown out ,start all over
Good morning, the difference a day makes

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