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Active tropics today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:15 AM GMT on September 24, 2007

A disturbance ("94L") in the Gulf of Mexico has not gotten better organized today and has just about run out of time. Long range radar out of New Orleans shows the advance rain showers from 94L are already at the coast, and there are no signs of spiral banding, rotation, or organization in either the radar imagery or satellite loops of 94L. Wind shear has increased to 10-20 knots over the Gulf of Mexico, and it now appears unlikely 94L will be able to develop into a tropical depression.

Lesser Antilles disturbance 97L
Of greater concern is a tropical wave (97L) about 300 miles east of Barbados in the Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave has not gotten any better organized during the past 12 hours, as seen in the latest Satellite imagery. The wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear. The shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots through Tuesday, and there is some favorable anticyclonic outflow at high levels, and 97L has a good chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. At that point, the future evolution of the storm depends strongly on how far north it is. If 97L moves northwest over Puerto Rico on Wednesday, as the GFDL and some of the global models predict, it may encounter a zone of high wind shear associated with the bottom part of a trough of low pressure positioned to the north of Puerto Rico. This shear should keep the storm from becoming a hurricane. If 97L stays on a more west-northwest track and penetrates into the Caribbean Sea south of Puerto Rico, as predicted by the simpler BAMM model, the storm is likely to encounter less shear, and could grow into a hurricane. Regardless, 97L will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to most of the Lesser Antilles Islands tonight through Tuesday.

Links to follow for 97L
Martinique radar
Barbados weather
Guadaloupe weather
Martinique weather
St. Lucia weather


Figure 1. Microwave image from 4:46 pm EDT today showing low-level spiral bands starting to form on the west side of 96L. Image credit: Navy/NRL.

Far Atlantic disturbance 96L
A tropical wave "96L" in the far eastern Atlantic, about 650 miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, has gotten more organized during the past 24 hours, as seen in the latest Satellite imagery. The circulation associated with the wave is unusually large. The storm will be a little slow to get going, since the storm is so far south. At the storm's current latitude--6 degrees north of the Equator--it cannot leverage the earth's spin very much to help spin up the huge circulation it has. Despite it's close proximity to the Equator, low-level spiral bands have already formed, as seen in recent microwave satellite images (Figure 1). The wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear. The shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots through Wednesday, and there is some favorable anticyclonic outflow at high levels. There is a good chance 96L will become a hurricane late this week, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model. The Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate the possibility that this will be a hurricane by the time it reaches the islands seven days from now, although it could miss to the north. It is possible 96L will encounter a zone of high wind shear beginning four days from now. The HWRF model develops 96L into a 55-mph tropical storm by Tuesday, then weakens the system the remainder of the week. The GFDL model does not develop 96L at all.

I'll edit this blog tonight to include the evening QuikSCAT pass, if it hits 96L. Otherwise, I'll be back Monday morning--and maybe I'll even talk about our one active storm, Jerry!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I see LLC with 22N 61W. It will be invest 98L by morning (maybe sooner if anyone is awake at NHC LOL) if it keeps that convection and covers itself IMO.
It seems like with the pattern so far this year 96l would turn north and be a "bermuda/fish" storm
504. V26R
Night Hog
Anyone care to answer my question regarding jerry?
508. V26R
Ivan the ECMWF seems to agree with you

Link
Posted By: Michael at 3:37 AM GMT on September 24, 2007.

All the convection will be well east of the center, will look like its literally cut in half, Allison was the same way

NOW that is what I am watching for
510. V26R
Sorry Rare what was your Question again?
Jerry is going to hang out with the fish I believe.
I just loggged on.. "my question is why waste a name"
Whats yours
Is jerry gonna just head out to sea? Is it a threat any more?
22N 61W came out of nowhere all of a sudden. I always find it amazing how systems can just do that sometimes.
Jerry is a fish storm for sure.
516. V26R
Rare maybe to the Azores or mainly to shipping
Looks as if it will get absorbed by a larger Storm or it will just go and visit Europe
for a Holiday as my cousin puts it
thanks truecajun
V26 your from New york its funny when you say "with the fishes", lol thanks all for the responses
My fear (with the pattern the way it is) is a late season "wilma" or "Opal" coming out of the western carribean as the westerlies move southward during fall (especially october/early november). Look at the pattern for the year. 2 cat 5s. Look at how that pattern is shifting north.
the other night when we were watching TD10, I saw a blob in the GOM that concerned me, but everyone told me it was nothing--just a LOW that would go away. Now I'm looking at 61/22 and it looks just like the blob in the GOM that worried me. I don't know how to tell the difference between blobs that you need to be worried about and those that you don't. I saw spin on the GOm blob, but I'm not seeing it on 61/22. But I can't look at things that require Java. Really no reason for this post except to vent my frustration on y'all being able to recognize and me not being able to
Only reason I bring up 94L is because I live on the MS Gulf Coast. Any disturbance in the GOM perks my ears up...
Yeah i have to agree Ivan. The western carribean looks to be becoming active as the season progresses.
94L was taken off of the Navy site
note 94L is no longer on the navy site
Java dont work on your system truecajun?
532. V26R
You'll get to recognize them eventually Cajun, Just keep looking at the Pix and asking questions
HH flights were canceled on it also
Navy has taken off the sight However the situation is still monitored if the issue can reconstruct to a level of concern. JUST not to the public- I should not have said anything-I did not mean to stur the pot so to speak-wont happen again-sorry
Posted By: Ivansvrivr at 11:49 PM EDT on September 23, 2007.

Why are they bothering with pathetic "jerry" thing anyways. Are they trying to pad the numbers so they get their early season forecast right?


They have to bother with it. Its their job
I don't get on here to out-do anyone on their forecasting abilities. If I were to forecast anything, it would be like the blind leading the blind. We'd all be lost. However, I have to admit that I am learning more each time I log on. Some true. Some false. And some just way out there like the "T" word... But at the end of the day, I'd have to say it's still a learning experience. And at the same time, I look at everything in the tropics more from a logical standpoint more than a meteorological standpoint. Sometimes my guesses are correct and other times, they are just guesses. Anyways, enough with the ranting and raving... Let's talk tropics...
sorry about double post computer issue
5 years ago, that thing would have never been named. I understand if it were in that position and not about to be swallowed up by a rather large ULL. How many of those type storms have gone unnoticed in the last hundred years. Folks count such storms as an increase in tropical activity.
546. V26R
Ivan in the past years, the NHC and European agencies never had the technology to even see half of the storms and mainly relied on reports from Ships at sea to make reports
22N/61W is in a strongly sheared environment. I dont expect it to develop.
I understand what you are saying Ivan. It isnt a large storm but as long as it is out there the NHC still has to issue advisories for it.
So how can they claim such an increase in activity. For that matter how can a ship at sea tell ifm a system is tropical,subtropical or extratropical? Don't take me all that seruously. I'm just pondering because it seems to me to be a waste of time and effort for the nhc to be following that "jerry" thing. Don't they have a high seas forecast center that takes care of that?
The ships rely on the NHC for updates.I guess they could use the NWS for updates but dont know the answer to that
i do beleive 22/60 is building on unidata wv image its getting bigger with a counter clockwise rotation present with rapid firing multi-convective cells movement wsww
trackmark
22.1n/60.8w invest 98l
558. V26R
Night Cajun

Honestly If it wasn't its close proximity to the Azores I would be agreeing with you 100%
As for the ships telling what it is, No they can't all they do is report what type of
pressures, winds rain etc... They have at their locations and its up to the Brains at the NHC and European Agencies to figure out what type of storm if any it is
And yes the High Seas Forecast Center should
be taking care of it, but like i said, due to its close proximity to the Azores...
560. V26R
Night Ivan
Im outta here too
That blob at 22N 61W is going to have a rough time doing anything with this to contend with:

5
Here's my thoughts on whay Dr. M said " i don't like the looks of this".....

Dear Dr. M....why did you say that in your blog?...maybe he can clear up the confusion....

Just my 2 cents....we can speculate all night...only he really knows...but i don't like the sound of what he said....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/temp/image.gif

...progressing along. TD on Monday, perhaps? Likely.
Shock wave blowing west from 97
96 mired in ITCZ, will need to climb away at some point.
I don't see any increase in activity that corresponds with improved observations here, which would cause a rather abrupt and noticable increase if that was the case:



That said, the main thing that global warming is affecting (on a GLOBAL basis) is the number of Category 4 and 5 storms (which can be easily measured as a percentage of all storms, and has been increasing steadily for decades, just as tropical SSTs have been increasing; here is a nice comparison between 1986 and this year; if that doesn't prove GW then nothing will), there is NOTHING about how global warming is supposed to increase the number of storms worldwide; the puny Atlantic has just 1 out of every 10 storms worldwide (in fact, I think the Atlantic is way overhyped, it has 10% of the storms but gets about 99% of the press).
Wow michfan, that shows how strong 98L is. With that much shear, I woulda thought it would be ripped to shreds quickly. But it is hanging on. Obviously not gonna get very far though with 30 knot shear over it for long, that must be the reason it is not already 98L. Thing almost looks like a TD to me. But if the convection stops firing it would burn out quick with the shear. Impressive bugger with that much shear, surprised it aint a TD officially already. Looks like there's a LLC with it. I guess they'll give it the night to see if the shear tears it apart and if not then classify it tomorrow AM. Maybe the surface circ isn't that strong but it looks good on IR.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/temp/

good rotation becoming more noticeable.
I was just looking at the East Atlantic IR loop. 96L really starting to get some spin to it.... Very noticeable....
moonlight can u post a link to that site u just posted
Keeper - Link
thanks
573. H2PV
2007267_0333_15W_Francisco_45kts_avn.jpg

http://www.h2-pv.us/wiki_100mpg/img/wiki_up/2007267_0333_15W_Francisco_45kts_avn.jpg
574. H2PV
WICKED! You just don't see African thunderstorms with black hearts very often!

http://www.h2-pv.us/wiki_100mpg/img/wiki_up/2007266_1900_EATL_avn.jpg
What IS the deal with the black coloration???
97L looks like it's about to form a closed circulation:

quikscat
577. cjnew
Hog, yep!! I'll bet the Hhunters find some interesting stuff tomorrow!
yeah, it does look to be tightening up..
looks like all the models are agreeing that 97l will be a south fla storm so far

cant wait to see what all the systems look like 30 min from now after the blackouts
580. KRL
I think the shear is going to do it's job.
581. cjnew
...Or Hispaniola
possibly will be 98l in the am

THE MOST PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED NEAR 22N60W...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 57W-61W.
WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY TO PUT A LOW IN THIS VICINITY.
583. cjnew
Deep convection firing near the center of 96L
96l

Link to see clearer.
584. KRL
Sahara dust layer.

Dust
cant wait to see what all the systems look like 30 min from now after the blackouts

Just out of blackout, and to my untrained eye, pretty ragged. 94L now looks to have higher cloud density than the other invests. GOES TATL LOOP-VIS
Time will tell.
Wait, I said Hispaniola, jokingly, and got toasted the other night by ROCKME and CGE. Here's a basic cloud overview (animated loop) link of what is being spit out across Africa - another significant wave coming. You can see the Mediterranean and "TS Ben & Jerry" also. My apologies about the comment about the live radar from Hispaniola. It is, indeed, a blind man swinging a seeing eye-dog with a WOK on his head. You just have to speak Spaniel to decipher the results. =) Good morning all!
Wait, I said Hispaniola, jokingly, and got toasted the other night by ROCKME and CGE. Here's a basic cloud overview (animated loop) link of what is being spit out across Africa - another significant wave coming. You can see the Mediterranean and "TS Ben & Jerry" also. My apologies about the comment about the live radar from Hispaniola. It is, indeed, a blind man swinging a seeing eye-dog with a WOK on his head. You just have to speak Spaniel to decipher the results. =) Good morning all!Link
FTWbuoy,
My apologies about the comment about the live radar from Hispaniola. It is, indeed, a blind man swinging a seeing eye-dog with a WOK on his head. So that's how their radar works. 'Mornin'
Sorry about the multiple entry. My machine "burped". Some of the convection persisted in some of these, others did not. I am mystified as to why the blob in the center of the ATL made it as long as it did with shear, and some of the larger systems wound down so much...a few hangovers maybe, to many Hurricanes downed by too many posers. The storms, I mean... Morning back Lightning! ;)
On the note of hangovers, isn't diurnal minimum when you awake for work early Monday morning after all day Sunday watching football, eating wings and drinking beer.
I am mystified as to why the blob in the center of the ATL made it as long as it did with shear, and some of the larger systems wound down so much

Are you speaking of the one at 22N 60W?
jaja =) On that note, since not much else is simmering yet, when I lived in Costa Rica, on the beach, and there was a "Tide Warning", this kid ran along the beach with a wind up monkey with cymbals on a stick. That was honest to gosh true. You didn't want to be on the wrong side of the cave/inflow on the side of the nude beach after dark. Not sure why, but I agreed it sounded like a bad idea. Did you know there is a H**ters in Jaco? Liked the CIMSS site, thanks moonlight. The radar results from Africa depend on who over there has an Uzi today, sad to say.
Yes on the blob. Wait, has it moved?! (rhetorical). I left my machine on it is has this "jump" redirect thing on it, dangitall. "Reba, get the pills, gotta deworm the machine." Hoping for enough rain in NTX to clear away the dirt/smog/ragweed, but not create 6 months worth of leak repairs at the properties there. CR has been in on more intense action than usual - heavy rain is the norm, but not waterspouts, tornadoes and hail. Things are becoming like TX, which is disappointing. That's been a recent development over the last 9 years, or so I am told. The metal roofs make a racket. Will check back in a few, have to be a grownup and put on a tie for a few. :-)=>8 Y'all have a greeat day.
Yes, that's the one. What's heating up the water right there? Must be a honeymoon cruise, too many Carnaval ships have oversized Jacuzzis. Seeds for convenction? Thesis?
Good Day to you FTWBuoy
Link

A little bit interdisciplinary, but this affects surface currents, specific gravity and tides? "What's in the sandbox" affects how the kids play around those objects, but not that much. Thankfully, no tsunamis, quakes or heated vents eruptions as of late (see Jacuzzi comment). Those have triggered isolated clusters before, who knows what the odds are of a simulcast of the two/three events? What are the Vegas odds?
Morning everybody,

Doesn't look at first glance like much eventuated last night . . . going to take a more indepth look at things, but I'll be back!
00Z Surface analysis

Morning all :~)

Looks like PR, DR, and Haiti as well as the Bahamas are going to need to keep a close eye on 97. That said, it looks like all models are still calling for enough of a weakness in the ridge with the next approaching front to allow these systems to be recurved prior to a US landfall. Bahamas could be dealing with a strengthening system though.

Off to work, see y'all later
Mariners' 1-2-3

Morning, SJ. As u can see, at least one Bahamian is watching . . .

I'm out in about 45 minutes myself. Have a good one.
Morning Baha, good to see you.

Quite in here this morning, geuss everyone is still sleeping; wish I was!

Off to work now, will check in later.
OPC's forecast for Thursday.

606. CFL
An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is centered
about 100 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Thunderstorm
activity has decreased overnight within this system...but it still
has the potential to develop into a tropical depression during the
next day or two as it moves northwestward at about 15 mph. The low
is expected to bring squally weather to portions of the Windward
Islands later today...and this weather could spread northwestward
into the Leeward Islands on Tuesday. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located
about 650 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated overnight...and
this large system continues to show signs of organization. It
could become a tropical depression during the next day or so as it
moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
Forecaster Knabb

'not gotten' ?? not become maybe

no offence taken ! just grates on English ears
PaulBedfordUK,
Meteorological prowess does not indicate spelling proficiency or grammar acuity for that matter. LOL
Its early guys...take it easy
blueranch,
I'm being good natured. Dr. Master's, I assume is not a doctor of literary arts. He's a doctor of meteorology. And you are very right, it's early. Good Morning to you!
Any opinions on the tail of 94L? Cloud blob north of the Yucatan on Water Vapor and Infrared. IR WV
mornnin 96L looking better and better

94l and 96l now have their own floaters. I guess that means 94l is an area of more interest!!
94L is no longer on the navy site
ok...94l is off the navy site, but on the SSD site...and I checked QS and there seems to be a weak LLC with 94L
extreme236,
Thanks for taking a look. I've been watching it off an on all night long on ADDS IR. It's been growing. I'm not the expert here. Is the LLC associated with these clouds?
Posted By: LightningCharmer at 10:19 AM GMT on September 24, 2007.

extreme236,
Thanks for taking a look. I've been watching it off an on all night long on ADDS IR. It's been growing. I'm not the expert here. Is the LLC associated with these clouds?


Im guessing the LLC is associated with the clouds...so its still something to watch closely
and dont be fooled by 97L's decrease in shear...it definatly has potential
decrease in convection....not shear lol...just got done looking at the SSD shear map and I was thinking of shear
so it does or doesn't have potential extreme?
extreme236, Thanks for the quick answer.
your welcome lightning, and blueranch yes I think it does have potential...its early in the morning so im not quite awake yet lol
Thank you
holy crap...the 0Z gfdl run on 97L brings it to 88kts at its peak...wow
ascending pass missed 96L, with the exception of part of the eastern part...it shows some believable 30kt wind barbs
Looks like 96L is gaining some latitude this a.m.
Link
Yeah extreme is right guys, don't be fooled by 97L's waning of convection. A lot of these systems gain and lose convection before they develop.
Do you guys think they will upgrade 96L to a tropical depression at the 11:00 AM advisory? I would if I were them, just by the appearance and the fact that continued organization has taken place. However, knowing them, they'd wait for more persistence until the 5:00 PM advisory before upgrading. Not that it's a bad thing, but still...
From the TWD at 805am:

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 58W OR ABOUT 85 NM
E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. A SFC LOW WILL LIKELY BE
ADDED TO THE WAVE AXIS ON THE 24/1200 UTC MAP...WITH A CLOSED
CYCLONIC SWIRL NOW APPARENT JUST SE OR BARBADOS VIA SHORTWAVE IR
IMAGERY
. WINDS AT GRANTLEY ADAMS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SE
BARBADOS ALSO RECENTLY BACKED TO THE NW WITH THE APPROACH OF
THIS LOW. THIS WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
TSTM ACTIVITY FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 52W-61W. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH LATER
TODAY...BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10-15 KT.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
See? I knew 97L wasn't out yet. LOL
I know what you mean about 96L Koritheman...when Dr. Masters says he 'doesn't like the looks' of something then that is an indication of development potential. Early warning is what it's all about.
Posted By: KoritheMan at 10:50 AM GMT on September 24, 2007.

Do you guys think they will upgrade 96L to a tropical depression at the 11:00 AM advisory? I would if I were them, just by the appearance and the fact that continued organization has taken place. However, knowing them, they'd wait for more persistence until the 5:00 PM advisory before upgrading. Not that it's a bad thing, but still...


I have a feeling they wil wait, but they should end up doing it sometime today as on saturday they said it could become a depression in 24-48hrs, so if they want that to have been true, then they may do it later today
Morning to u latecomers . . . LOL

I'm gettin ready to head out, but I'm sure today will be vereey interesting. . . I don't expect 97L will get much better organized before I get back, but 96L is looking like it could be the next little system with a name. . .

I'll check in later today.
I will BBL, in time for the 97L recon, assuming they do it
A surface low now added....Currently moving NW.
I know what you mean about 96L Koritheman...when Dr. Masters says he 'doesn't like the looks' of something then that is an indication of development potential. Early warning is what it's all about.

The good news is that, as of now (although can and almost certainly will change with this as it always does), it looks like 96L will be a fish storm, at least IMO. The faster it develops, the more I think it would recurve. But I really don't know... It could end up not recurving at all.

I have a feeling they wil wait, but they should end up doing it sometime today as on saturday they said it could become a depression in 24-48hrs, so if they want that to have been true, then they may do it later today

I guess you are right. They waited till 98L (Chantal) was nearly dead before classifying it. LOL

I'm gettin ready to head out, but I'm sure today will be vereey interesting. . . I don't expect 97L will get much better organized before I get back, but 96L is looking like it could be the next little system with a name. . .

Actually, I think 97L will surprise us all, just by this year's standards. I completely agree with you on 96L, though.
NHC 8AM TWD on 96L

THIS IS ONE OF THE MORE CLASSIC LOOKING CAPE VERDE SYSTEMS WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE O
F WEEKS.

Rhut Rho Rastro!
Guess there exited this morning as well, seeing it's just now 7am.
Dont be by fool by the limited convection..97L has a very good structure.

96L fish!! Local Mets just said the high coming off the east coast will bridge with the b high and make it hard for storms to curve and force them west. What gives?
I agree 456. Recon should fly today, especially now that their is a surface low to tag. Plug some good info into the models.
They are right in their thinking. Things can change though, as always.
You didn't think the season was over did ya Eye? From the looks of things, we're just starting to get cranked up. GFS has been wanting to develop the 2 waves behind 96L as well.
Really dont see any threats now. Just alot of rain.
94L

94L looking good this morning
94L Posted these earlier; impressive overnight tranformation. ADDS IR WV
BBL
93c is added to the invest list. Need to keep an eye on it.
654. IKE
From the Mobile,AL. extended....

"On Thursday it appears we will
be looking at a possible passage of a front coming in from the west.
That would be pointing toward somewhat cooler temperatures next
weekend...with highs in the lower to middle 80s near the coast and
inland indicated by the mex calculations.".....


Keep them fronts a coming and the tropical season will be over soon for the northern GOM coast.
What about the little system behind 97? It was a bare naked swirl yesterday. Check 97 visiable.
NOAA added a 1011 MB Low to 94L on the Tropical Atlantic Visible Loop. Click on "NWS Fronts" after it loads.
Good Morning.
The wave at the East Carib, 97 L , has lost some of its anticipated organisation overnight. Weather at 11n 61w is still dry, and still. Its 7;30 am, and its a holiday here.
So I'll be in and out.
Actually pottery it did get a lot better organized, read the 8am TWD from the NHC. A closed surface low was observed SE of Barbados and will likely be added to the map. Convection is minimal but, this is a new development so, it should return.
Yesterday it was an open wave.
Good Morning.
The wave at the East Carib, 97 L , has lost some of its anticipated organisation overnight. Weather at 11n 61w is still dry, and still. Its 7;30 am, and its a holiday here.
So I'll be in and out.
Morning all, looks like another very interesting day ahead, monitoring all of these systems in the Atl. BBL
The more I look at 97 the more impressive it looks.
Cane, did the HH fly 94 L as yet? I Thought they were flying it yesterday ?
Sorry for the repeat.
It might be one of those mornings....
Welcome home, Kman !
665. IKE
Posted By: pottery2 at 6:45 AM CDT on September 24, 2007.
Cane, did the HH fly 94 L as yet? I Thought they were flying it yesterday ?


They canceled yesterdays recon on 94L.
Wow. OK. Its deffinitely one of those mornings.
Thought I saw Kman, it was Caymanite.
Morning to you.
I'll try to behave.............
I was wondering how 94L would look this morning considering how it started wrapping some storms around the center last night. Looks like it continued that progress through the night. i think we might see 94L back up on the NRL site very soon.

We may end up having a TS out of this one after all...stay tuned...
Morning Pottery, keep a close watch on 97L today in case it intensifies on your door step. Nice to see you here again.
Morn'n all.
Thanks IKE.
Any recon today at 97 L ?
I would expect this system to show some improvements, when it crosses the islands. There is no island big enough to affect it, and I hope it does not cause any grief in the Isles.

96 L looks potent though. Lots of organisation for something still so far south. One to watch as well.
Ike these fronts will not kill hurricane season just make it worse for U.S. if a storm gets in the gulf the fronts tend to turn them north
672. IKE
Posted By: OUSHAWN at 6:52 AM CDT on September 24, 2007.
I was wondering how 94L would look this morning considering how it started wrapping some storms around the center last night. Looks like it continued that progress through the night. i think we might see 94L back up on the NRL site very soon.

We may end up having a TS out of this one after all...stay tuned...


It's only hope for development is to head north, which it's not doing. There's 20-30 knots of shear in the western GOM....

Link
True, Caymanite. But you know these things always seem to miss us. We could certainly use the rain though.
675. IKE
Posted By: Eyewall911 at 6:58 AM CDT on September 24, 2007.
Ike these fronts will not kill hurricane season just make it worse for U.S. if a storm gets in the gulf the fronts tend to turn them north


Oh yes they will kill it eventually...it may take until the middle/end of October, but, where I live it should be over with by then.
With a closed surface low all it needs is convection to build today, which it is. I wouldn't think they would cancel the recon for 97L seeing that it's so close to landmasses. Recon is supposed to fly @ 2pm.
Morning Nashda .
I see what you mean. The storm aqctivity with 94L is displaced from the actual center of circulation. It would have to either reform under the convection or pull the convection to it which is a drawn out process and it won't have time to do that. Oh well, we will see what happens...
Hey can anyone tell me if I would have to start making the cafe con leche I was going to make for Ingrid? I mean for 97L?? :o)
If recon is flying out of Barbados, at 2;00 pm, they will have a bumpy take-off !! The system should be over them at that time ??
Morning all :~)

Looks like all the Island folks including the Bahamas are going to need to keep a close eye on 97. This system could also be a close call for the E coast. Looks to me like all models are still calling for a pretty significant weakness to develop in the ridge allowing 96 to head towards the northern Antilles and then eventually to the NE.

06 GFDL is still bringing 97 near Cat 1 strength as it nears the Bahamas.
Morning SJ!

Lets hope that weakness develops!
94L It's only hope for development is to head north, which it's not doing.

Forgive me for asking, and I'm not trying to offend but what direction is it going? To my unytrained eye observing several satellite images it appears to be going due north but very slowly.

Again, I'm not an expert. Is it possible the cloud blob is not associated with the low?
Based on IR loops looks like 94L weak circulation is near 22N 93W or well to the SW of the colder cloud tops seen in the central gulf. Any convection that has tried to form around this swirl immediately gets blown off to the N and NNE due to the shear. The system came off the Yucatan around 21N 91W yesterday evening so it is moving WNW. Looks like this general direction should continue.

I guess there is a chance something could try to develop at the surface farther north and northeast of its current location and that is its only hope. Even then, shear just too strong over entire western and northwestern gulf.
SJ u got a link for latest models
686. IKE
94L, according to the latest TWO....

"A weak area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is
producing limited and disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Upper-level winds are currently strong over the western
Gulf...but they could weaken somewhat and become a little more
favorable for development of this system as it moves slowly
west-northwestward
during the next couple of days."
Yep TCW, although I am becoming a little more concerned about 97. For the islands as well as the SE. From what I can tell the long range GFS wants to move 97 towards the Central to North Fla coast.

Back to work for me.

Quick Links
-Easily navigate forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.

See y'all in a couple of hours.
Morning wxguru!

Good call on TD10, had me fooled for sure.
689. IKE
Posted By: StormJunkie at 7:14 AM CDT on September 24, 2007.
Yep TCW, although I am becoming a little more concerned about 97. For the islands as well as the SE. From what I can tell the long range GFS wants to move 97 towards the Central to North Fla coast.


Look out for the Florida wishcasters now.
the gulf system looks good this a.m..dvorak picture pretty impressive. I think this will be our next tropical storm..
Eyewall, go to that link I just posted. Several very good model pages listed under models.
Morning Cane.
wxguru1, Thanks for the quick answer. So it all depends on the shear?
the gulf system looks good this a.m..dvorak picture pretty impressive. I think this will be our next tropical storm..
695. IKE
Posted By: Hhunter at 7:15 AM CDT on September 24, 2007.
the gulf system looks good this a.m..dvorak picture pretty impressive. I think this will be our next tropical storm..


Look at the western Atlantic visible, with the NCEP fronts clicked on...note where the low is and where the heaviest convection is...it's getting sheared...

Link
Hhunter...

Don't let the satellite pic of 94L fool you. The thunderstorm activity you are seeing is well away from the actual center of circulation. There is quite a bit of shear out there that is causing those storms to be blown to the north.
It would be very difficult given the current conditions in the gulf to get surface low development under the "blob" in the central gulf, but not entirely out of the question. But yes, shear was yesterday and will be today the limiting factor. And the shear is not going anywhere over the next 48 hours. If they system completely stalled and waited til late tomorrow or Wednesday to get going, then it would have a chance, but that is massive WISHCASTING!
IKE, Look at the western Atlantic visible, with the NCEP fronts clicked on...note where the low is and where the heaviest convection is...it's getting sheared...

Thanks for the answer. I noticed that low on the GOES earlier. It's just that sometimes on the satellite images, the fronts are older than the images or so it seems.

Do you think the front pushing south through Florida will affect wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico?
Morning Folks.....Will be around today from time to time and several systems to keep an eye on (in late September)...Looks to me this morning that 96L out in the East-Atl. is looking very good on visible and I can can see a tropical depression called by this evening if the current structure holds....Steering and Sheer patterns seem a little complicated around the Gulf so we'll have to see whether that system can survive....The Antilles wave does not look too good this morning....
The strong shear is between the strong ridge over the SE US and the very strong Trof over the Great Basin. Throw in an ULL near Brownsville, TX and you get a lot of south and ssw shear over the western gulf.
whay is with the models! for 94l they don't make much since.
94L is starting to fire up some storms right around the center now. The key is whether it will be able to continue that.
Convection wise, I agree with you on 97L wannabe but, it went from an open wave to a closed surface low last night. Structurally 97L improved substantially.
705. Relix
97L is looking to go south of PR for now, besides.... I expected for it to be a TD by now but it hasn't, meh. Oh well, looks like I can play Halo 3 uninterrupted now =P
24/1145 UTC 21.7N 92.8W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean
You know before i went to bed last night i saw that flare up of storms and i tbought to myself, i bet you anything this thing is going to come back, come to see it... 94L may not be gone just yet!
Yeah Cane...Guess we'll have to see if it can build some convection over the next 24 hours.....How much longer can we expect a CV season before the Africa waves start to die down (will it be a late end to the CV season?)...That's the question I am pondering this morning looking at the Atlantic vs. all of the fronts starting to come down over the US which spells an earlier winter....
the ull over texas is becoming more north to south..looks like it will be weaking..
94L is even back on the NHC website... You know that means something...
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico
Link
the front in texas should pull low to the north and maybe nne any takers..
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean

Link
93C is looking good right now
No bayoubug. Not a taker here. The moisture plume will be pulled N and NNE but not the weak low level system.
Latest 24 hour surface forecast

I haven't seen a whole lot of people talkin about the possibility of 97L getting into the GOM..could someone explain to me why that wouldn't happen? I mean it looks like to me goin by the track it could have a good chance..askincause I don't understand how things work I guess..lol
720. IKE
Posted By: StormW at 7:47 AM CDT on September 24, 2007.
Good morning!
Just a quick take on 96L...I have no idea why the NHC hasn't classified this as a T.D. yet.

I'm tellin' ya...it's there!

I'll be back in about 45 min. to an hour.


That i do agree with...96L looks TD-ish already. I imagine they update it at the next TWO.
Storm W do you mind giving a quick tip on 97L?
722. IKE
97L is gathering convection this morning. Looks like a go for recon this afternoon on it.
GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV) False Color Atlantic
Click to enlarge

Link
Posted By: aubiesgirl at 12:47 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

I haven't seen a whole lot of people talkin about the possibility of 97L getting into the GOM..could someone explain to me why that wouldn't happen? I mean it looks like to me goin by the track it could have a good chance..askincause I don't understand how things work I guess..lol

Mainly because its TO FAR OUT yet right now with low shear and really no stearing it could change and go anywhere. All storms so far this year have not done what the computers say they will do. Just keep an eye on it.
725. IKE
97L is in the same spot that Felix was in.
Morning yall. Last night I lurked, but I was watching to see what would become of 94L. I see it is a blob, but is there any signs that it is gettting organized, or is it building steam. Appreciate any info.
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 565 NM SW OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 8.5N31W. THIS LARGE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10-15 KT. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW MOSTLY W OF
THE CENTER FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 29W-38W.
THIS IS ONE OF THE MORE CLASSIC LOOKING CAPE VERDE SYSTEMS WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
Posted By: youradjuster at 12:56 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

Posted By: aubiesgirl at 12:47 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

I haven't seen a whole lot of people talkin about the possibility of 97L getting into the GOM..could someone explain to me why that wouldn't happen? I mean it looks like to me goin by the track it could have a good chance..askincause I don't understand how things work I guess..lol

Mainly because its TO FAR OUT yet right now with low shear and really no stearing it could change and go anywhere. All storms so far this year have not done what the computers say they will do. Just keep an eye on it.


thanks..didn't mean to sound like I was wishin for it..just I've seen some theories on the storm and none seem to lean towards the gulf in here...I guess I was just askin to find out if I was missin somethin..lol..I mean it is a long way out..lo
It all depends on where 97L is in 72 hours but it looks like it will be near or north of the islands then. An approaching trof over the central U.S. is forecast by all models. We will have to see if 97L is far enough west and north to be caught by it.
On vis sat imagery 96L almost appears to have an "eye" feature around 9.5N and 33.5W.
Just keep watching it, by wed it should be more evident where it might go.
Lord Patrap what is that a pic of, it looks like the bowels of hell.
GOES-12 Low Cloud Product, Atlantic
Click to Enlarge
Link
Don't know if 96L will end up being a fish (just based on the models from yesterday which will have to recalculate over the next week as it moves westward and gets better organized) but the circulation is already there......
736. IKE
There's a high that's built over 97L according to the CIMSS shear maps. There's also 20-30 knots of shear to it's WNW about 400-500 miles. It needs to move almost due west to keep it's chances of development up.
ty Storm W it doesn't look to impressive right now though
ike with regards to the info that you just posted I will imagine that 97L is going to have a ruff time getting through it because it is still pretty weak
739. IKE
Posted By: Miamiweather at 8:05 AM CDT on September 24, 2007.
ike with regards to the info that you just posted I will imagine that 97L is going to have a ruff time getting through it because it is still pretty weak


You could be right.
I see 96L moving is similiar track as Dean , basically just North of due West. I notice most models almost always track in more WNW to NW prediction.
97L is going to have a very rough time. The upper levels over the Caribbean and SW Atlantic looks like someone threw them into a blender and I don't see that changing anytime soon. Tropical systems like nice, tranquil environments to really get going.
I don't see a recon plan of the day for 97L....

is recon flying anywhere today??

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 22 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-120

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 23/1630Z
D. 24.0N 91.0W
E. 23/1600Z TO 23/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 24/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 24/0500Z
D. 26.0N 93.0W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....BEGIN 3 HRLY FIXES 24/1500Z IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON TD-10 WAS CANCELED BY 22/0000Z.
Sorry that should read 97Lmoving in similiar track as Dean, they are so many "Ls" out there it hard to keep track of which one you want to write about.
Has anyone noticed the southward shift of the updated Bamm Models for 97L?
hey folks! good morning. I was wondering what old 94l is doing in the gulf. looks like theres some heavy thunderstorm activity thats appears to be intensifying...any thoughts? looks like Texas and La are in for some rain.
94L... it is now almost completely void of convection. The little bit that tried to fire has been left behind or pushed to the NNE of the low level system as it continues to move WNW.
97L is not well organised this am. The HH flight is scheduled for the GOM 94L invest.
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico
Link
Shear is high over 94 right now and any convection that forms will be torn away from the center and to the NE.
could someone post the graph that shows the september peak and where we are currently in the graph thank you been looking for a while can't find it
DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ARE OVER THE GULF WATERS BETWEEN 86W-94W. THE MOST CONCENTRATED
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 89W-94W. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SW GULF. AS OF 24/0900 UTC...THE 1011 MB
LOW WAS NEAR 22N93W...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE LOW
FROM 19N91W TO 25N96W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONG
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...BUT THEY COULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW IS
ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...BETWEEN AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH ERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO...AND UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE ERN GULF. DEEP MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
84W-96W...BETWEEN THE YUCATAN AND LOUISIANA...OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.
97L is beginning to encouter some shear from the SW and will be slow to develop if at all.
"The HH flight is scheduled for the GOM 94L invest."

saw that Pat..... is this mission still a go?
Posted By: wxguru1 at 1:11 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.

94L... it is now almost completely void of convection. The little bit that tried to fire has been left behind or pushed to the NNE of the low level system as it continues to move WNW.


The NHC has 94l just of the Yucatan and it looks better to me. I'm not sure what to think but at this point I think the area just off of New Orleans is not the area to watch, 94l is just north of the Yucatan.
That's cool Taz...where do you get this stuff!!!?
That is the link to the climatology map. Sorry I did not include the text with it.
Hi Taz, that image of 97l goes RIGHT over PR...no like!!
I know it could change dramatically it's trajectory but still impressive!!
760. A4Guy
Anyone notice that Dr M removed his opening comment "I don't like the looks of this one at all" from his analysis of 96L?

What's up with that?
Posted By: thelmores at 6:08 AM PDT on September 24, 2007.

I don't see a recon plan of the day for 97L....

is recon flying anywhere today??

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 22 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-120

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 23/1630Z
D. 24.0N 91.0W
E. 23/1600Z TO 23/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 24/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 24/0500Z
D. 26.0N 93.0W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....BEGIN 3 HRLY FIXES 24/1500Z IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON TD-10 WAS CANCELED BY 22/0000Z

thelmores that is 3 days old



here is the most update one but olny 1 day old

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT SUN 23 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71
A. 24/1600,2100Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 24/1430Z
D. 26.0N 94.0W
E. 24/1500Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72
A. 25/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 02JJA CYCLONE
C. 25/0315Z
D. 27.0N 96.0W
E. 25/0430Z TO 25/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 23/1800Z, 24/0600Z AND 24/1200Z
ON THIS SYSTEM CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/1545Z.

4. SUSPECT AREA (WINDWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 24/1600Z
D. 13.0N 60.0W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 25/1200Z.
September peak is September 10th and then it tends to show activity through around October 10th......
You are looking at the models run yesterday morning at 12Z on 94L that had it on north coast of Yucatan. And those were very wrong at the time. The system is near 22N 93.2W and moving WNW. There is nothing near LA, I have no idea what Masters was talking about in his write up last night on it.
ty wc guru
Posted By: Txwxchaser at 6:15 AM PDT on September 24, 2007.

That's cool Taz...where do you get this stuff!!!?

Link
I posted a blog last night and asked him why he said it..of course he never responded. There was way too much speculation by several as to why he said it...my guess he feels too much was being made of it and making too many folks nervous...just my opinion..
94l has a 1011 low and atleast some mid level rotation. Also convection has been on the increase all morning. Shear is the only inhibiting factor at this point.
never said I could read! LOL

so we may have two flights today??

are these still go? wish there was better info on these flights other than the plan of the day!
Posted By: Txwxchaser at 8:15 AM CDT on September 24, 2007.
That's cool Taz...where do you get this stuff!!!?


The animated GFDL is on the wunderground Tropical/Hurricane Page.

Link

thanks Taz...
i will tell you one thing with regards to the GFDL track I don't think it is taking into account all the mountains in PR and in DR they have really destroyed storms before what do you think?
you too Patrap....got it right this time.lol
Just a noob here, but isn't all that dry air I am seeing on the water vapor going to damper any t-storm activity over sofla?
A4, bet he edited his comment so as to avoid panic on this site. I know it really stirred everyone up last night after he posted it. Probably just wanting to show some caution.

GOES-12 CH-3 WV
With Dry Air Shaded

Link
what i wouldn't give to have 24 hrs with some of you guys...just to pick your brains...REALLY...i come to this site to learn..i just take bits and pieces of everything given..then formulate my own predictions w/o posting them...safer that way i've learned...gonna be an interesting week, is suppose.

Kow it's too early, but what time frame are we looking at before we "really know" if 96L or 97L could pose US threat?
Would take a lot longer than 24 hours Txwxchaser. 17 years for me and still learning. Experience is hard to teach. LOL
They may never pose a threat TX..lotsa obstacles to overcome. I wouldnt worry about any invest till they are MUCH further along ,,,Nothing is pass the windwards in the Atlantic.
oops!
94L has a definite low-level circulation.
So much is put into/said about the Windward and Leeward Islands when forecast...are these the boundaries used to determine if a system is threatening?
Could 94L develop like Humberto and kind of sit out in the gulf building up steam and then sneak up on land? Just wondering. I had stayed up all night watching Humberto, kind of took folks by surprise. TIA
"They may never pose a threat TX..lotsa obstacles to overcome. I wouldnt worry about any invest till they are MUCH further along ,,,Nothing is pass the windwards in the Atlantic."

still, If you live along the coast, it wouldnt hurt to have a supply of plywood and other emergency gear...wont be fun fighting people at home depot in a week/week and a half's time once these storms decide where they are going. Supplies wont go to waste, you may not need them this year, but sooner or later you'll be glad you had them.
Txwxchaser... I like to use 20N/60W for whether a system will effect U.S. or not. Of course there are exceptions, but I would say 90% of the time (and that is just a guess) if a system is NW of 20N/60W then it will be no threat. I use 20N/70W for the gulf but not sure that one verifies as well.
still, If you live along the coast, it wouldnt hurt to have a supply of plywood and other emergency gear...wont be fun fighting people at home depot in a week/week and a half's time once these storms decide where they are going. Supplies wont go to waste, you may not need them this year, but sooner or later you'll be glad you had them.


Thats always a given.If you knew me or my LIL blog,youd know that
Shear would have to relax for 94L to pull a Humberto but it is much more organized this morning and I wouldn't at all be surprised if it develops.
787. SEFL
"Posted By: Txwxchaser at 1:20 PM GMT on September 24, 2007. (hide)
I posted a blog last night and asked him why he said it..of course he never responded. There was way too much speculation by several as to why he said it...my guess he feels too much was being made of it and making too many folks nervous...just my opinion.."

He responded by removing it for exactly the reason you assume!!! Lots of wordsmiths in addition to tropical weather enthusiasts here!!
Okay, I'm not sure if I have "dain bramage" or not. When did the NHC put a floater on 94L? I could have sworn last time I looked yesterday their was not one, or maybe I just went straight to the standard carribean satellite...
ty wxguru1
Does anyone know the Header or forward speed of 94L in the GOM? TIA
"Thats always a given.If you knew me or my LIL blog,youd know that"

I'm glad you know that patrap, I wish everyone did.
Oh and based on that guidance, I see 96L as no threat to the US. 97L if it can survive definitely has a chance to impact the US.
I'm still trying to figure out what happened with Jerry. Where did he come from? (I guess you could say "thin air"...lol)
Living in New Orleans,actually..in the Neighboring Parish to the West, Jefferson Parish ,,,its always a given. Preparation is the Key in Any event, Disaster has no schedule,calamity knows no Borders.
Is the shear suppose to remain a steady factor in the gulf for the next couple of days? All I know is that it has lots of warm water. Thanks.
94L... 22N 93W moving WNW at about 10kts. Shear and dry air will be the limiting factors through landfall.
I wonder when/ if 94l will be back up on wu....
Hope if either 96 or 97 develops, it/they avoid Mexico. They have had more than their share of hurricane troubles this year.
Ok I know Jerry must have developed Saturday because I checked Friday night, and there was nothing and then on Sunday afternoon/evening, there he was, out fishing....so could someone please tell me where he came from, how I missed his development? He just kind of snuck in there.
Posted By: cattlebaroness at 1:47 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.
Hope if either 96 or 97 develops, it/they avoid Mexico. They have had more than their share of hurricane troubles this year.


Thank you SO MUCH for that. We've been absolutely hammered this year; almost each and every state has hurricane damage (Felix, Dean, Henriette...) and we're still taking food dispensas down to the Costa Maya for those who lost it all with Dean.

http://www.helpafterdean.com
Good morning, all!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

...it's the Low's vs. Highs! Looks like the Low's are winning. Score now Lows 5-Highs 2.
Low's have the ball on offense and have excellent field position. High's defense is little bunged up and may have a tough time defending all us folks.
803. beell
call some plays mlc!
wxguru:

Shear will be a factor, dry air shouldn't be.
805. beell
just passing thru. got this job thing...
g'day to all.
LOL moonlight. Looks like 96L is a tank of a running back.
We just got our power back on from TD 10, Yeah right what a joke.
The dry air to the west of 94L will be a limiting factor for convection in that semi-circle... the east side is plenty moist.
I realize that whether 94 develops into anything significant is still "up in the air" but, by the looks of the current steering, is it a reasonable conclusion that the LA coast will be affected - even if it is just a lot of rain?
812. IKE
94L does seems to be moving WNW...with the convection to it's north and NE. Shear has relaxed some...still at 20 knots to it's west and NW.
GOM Visible Loop


Link
thought my first didn't post...i said it twice...uncalled for!
816. IKE
Memo to NHC...96L needs upgrading!
817. IKE
Bears need a new QB...Cowboys are on a roll.
Where is the "center" of 94L in relation to the convective blowup?
819. beell
94l
lower level steering was SE to NW yesterday, but it looks like the CONUS trof will pick this thing up or at least move it more N than anything. But then were looking at a system getting squeezed between the trof to the west and the N/S aligned upper ridge to the east.
Bears need a new QB...Cowboys are on a roll.

come play Bflo Bills, cowboys and bears will seem like a probowl team

Anyone? Jerry? do I just use my imagination?
821. IKE
Posted By: Squid28 at 9:04 AM CDT on September 24, 2007.
Where is the "center" of 94L in relation to the convective blowup?


Partially exposed to the south and west of the convection.
Beell, just thinking the same thing. That could mean a tug towards the ncentral GOM I think.
looks like some nice convection firing up to the
N,NE and W of 94L's LLC......
Squid, you can see the center in that last image Patrap posted. It's the eye-like feature in the lower southwest part of the storm.
825. beell
i like da way you think mlc.
Posted By: Squid28 at 2:04 PM GMT on September 24, 2007.
Where is the "center" of 94L in relation to the convective blowup?


The low level circ on VIS is to the SW of the most intense convection on IR.




floater designated for 94L
Hey thel; looks like our two posts fit together pretty well. lol
GOM AVN Infrared Loop

Link
Morning mlc, bl, and all :~)

Plenty to keep us busy for the next week or two.

Back to work for me. See y'all in a couple of hours.

Quick Links-Easily navigate forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, and preparedness info.
833. beell
We may be fortunate in that the also N/S aligned CONUS trof will stay that way and continue moving W to E. If it starts to "lay over" and get more zonal then that might open up a bit more GOM to the east for this thing to play in.
OK really gotta go before i am unemployed.
ooh I see it...the COC on 94l its getting even more prominent by the minute, jpritch. Doesn't look like wind shear is affecting it, one bit!
836. beell
hey sj-say fish,fish,fish-take three swigs of cold medicine, repeat as required-see ya pal.
96L looks like a gorilla about to take steroids, nice symmetry and convection. Just needs a tight LLC to suction in all that convection.
Thanks for the response, if they decide to run the models again, how long till we start to see them come out?
So in looking at the image Patrap just posted, is 94 becoming less organized as it moves north? Trying to learn, what I am seeing. TIA
Patrap---

What are the chances now of 94L developing?
No recon today. 97L put off untill tomorrow. All recon for 94L canceled.

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Glad I'm nowhere near 96L. That looks like a monster waiting to happen. Soon.
"my prediction is 94L is dead and the cowboys are going all the way!!!!"
denial...its so sad... :o)

just joshin...darn cowboys stole 2 of our SB victories...
844. IKE
Posted By: nrtiwlnvragn at 9:20 AM CDT on September 24, 2007.
No recon today. 97L put off untill tomorrow. All recon for 94L canceled.

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I thought they would pay a visit to 97L today...more crow.
Whats up Littlefish. Top of the mornin to ya.
Fish Sticks
Ok, since its up to my imagination as to where Jerry came from...here is what I think happened..
A large family of whales got into some bad kelp and had a case of collective gas. The methane rose through the atmosphere quickly, creating a small surface low that in turn developed for a smidge, long enough to be classified as a STS and was therefore named Jerry...
am I right?
by 48 hours the shear will weaken and 94L will likely become a tropical storm.
Hi,all,
Been away all weekend,and I come back and see invests all over the place.
851. Wots
Good morning everyone.
First post, been visiting WU for years now, trying to learn. I d like to thank you all, because questions and answers both teach what to look at. I dont live in the tropics, but through all the info I gather here, I understand better my own weather.
I have also a question. Watching 97L it seems to me there are 2 COCs, one at 58 W and another, smaller at 47 W 15 N Is thas possible?
local NWS forecast discussion here in HOU predicts that the ULL over brownsville will move north taking the shear and dry air north by evening. Will this pull 94L onto the upper tx cst tomorrow? Also, cold front coming down with dry line in wst tx moving east. is it just me, or do you guys think that models will have much difficulty getting this right?
96L looks like it wants to set some records. I don't know what the stats are for farthest east major-cane, farthest south major-cane, or farthest east cat-5, but it is rapidly developing banding on all sides. If that continues, it will get strong fast. Hopefully a fish storm!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/temp/image.gif

97L will have some strong air defense (shear) to work into. Good safetys and corners could keep this attack at bay; but, has rotation, anticyclone. It'll have to keep a good, slow and steady running game plan to keep the drive up.
855. IKE
97L will have some strong air defense (shear) to work into. Good safetys and corners could keep this attack at bay; but, has rotation, anticyclone. It'll have to keep a good, slow and steady running game plan to keep the drive up.

I guess it's not time to punt yet with 97L.
856. CJ5
Morning all!

94L at 21.7/92.8 looks a a little better this am. Its movement seems to be WNW and I wouldn't expect it to be much if anything, though it has become better defined so with the way the season has gone I would be careful to not take my eyes of it.

96L at 9.4/31.7 looks better than any of the others. As long as it stays S of 20 it shouldn't experience much shear along its trek. I don't see any of the models developing this above a TS in the next 96hrs which I am not sure I agree with. They are in fairly good agreement on its track through that period. It depends on which model to believe when it comes to late steering. It appears that in 72hrs or so it is very possible for it to begin a more N-NW track and a fish is possible. I tend to think a more WNW-NW track and the US still in the cone.

97L at 12.4/58.9 looks pretty good this am also. It should begin to move into heavy shear w/tendancies increasing and models show that the shear will stay high along the N Islands and the DR. If this holds its going to have a tough time interacting with the shear and land. I believe a track towards DR is likely but around 72hrs it could begin a more N-NW turn as well. If some of the models hold it to could swing enough N to be a fish. I am not so sure. This one will have to pull an Ingrid, IMHO, to be a concern for the US.

These are just my thoughts today...not to be used for life or death planning.
96 looks very impressive to my novice eye.Glad it is way to the East of us.
Very appropriate for football analogy on a Monday morning
New blog up.
my-oh-my 96L has to have the biggest circulation I have ever seen!!! Don't think shear will do anything to this monster. Can we all say annular hurricane?
OMG!! 96 is going to be a monster. The question is, will it feed the fish or feed on the US? Any thoughts on long term steering patterns?