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Active Atlantic Hurricane Period That Began in 1995 May be Over: NOAA

By: Jeff Masters 5:14 PM GMT on May 27, 2015

It should be another quiet Atlantic hurricane season in 2015, and the active hurricane pattern that began in 1995 may now be over, said NOAA in their May 27 seasonal hurricane forecast. They give a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of an above-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 6 - 11 named storms, 3 - 6 hurricanes, and 0 - 2 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 40% - 85% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 8.5 named storms, 4.5 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane, and an ACE index 62.5% of normal. This is well below the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2014 averaged 14.7 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, and 3.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 142% of the median. Only three seasons since 1995 have been classified by NOAA as being below normal--including two El Niño years (1997 and 2009), and the neutral 2013 season.



The forecasters cited the following main factors that will influence the coming season:

1) The current borderline weak/moderate El Niño event is expected to persist or intensify during the 2015 hurricane season. El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity in three ways:

- By creating high levels of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, which tends to tear storms apart.
- By increasing sinking motion and high pressure over the tropical Atlantic.
- By making the air more stable over the tropical Atlantic.

2) Near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are in place over the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between between 10°N and 20°N. These SSTs are expected to be near or below average during the peak August - October portion of hurricane season, and are expected to be cooler than SSTs in the remainder of the global tropics (SSTs in the remainder of the global tropics were 0.31°C warmer than SSTs in the MDR in May.) This configuration of SSTs is often quite hostile to Atlantic tropical cyclone development.

3) The active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995 due to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) may now be over. The SST pattern associated with that cycle is absent this year, and NOAA said: "There have been two seasons in a row, 2013 and 2014, with below-normal and near-normal activity respectively and neither had an El Niño event responsible for the reduced activity. The current configuration of SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean, both in the MDR and the entire North Atlantic, are suggestive that the AMO may no longer be in the warm phase."


Figure 1. Hurricane Gonzalo as seen from the International Space Station on October 16, 2014. At the time, Gonzalo was at peak strength, with 145 mph winds, and was the first Atlantic hurricane to reach sustained winds of at least 145 mph since Hurricane Igor of 2010. Gonzalo hit Bermuda just a week after Hurricane Fay hit the island, and Gonzalo's remnants went on to batter the United Kingdom on October 21 with wind gusts exceeding 100 mph, killing three people there. Image credit: Alexander Gerst.

Though hurricane activity in the MDR should be limited this year, we often see storms occurring in a belt extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the central Atlantic north of the MDR during El Niño years, in association with reduced vertical wind shear across the region (Goldenberg and Shapiro 1996). NOAA's long-range CFS model predicts the vertical wind shear in this belt to be weaker than average during the August - October peak of hurricane season, which could allow activity to be near the higher end of their predicted ranges (11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) At present, SSTs are unusually warm in the Gulf of Mexico (1°C - 3°C above average) and in a belt from the Bahamas eastward into the central Atlantic (1 - 2°C above average). Storms that form in these waters are typically weaker than ones that form in the MDR, since they have less time to intensify over warm water.

Standard disclaimer: “A below-normal season doesn’t mean we’re off the hook. As we’ve seen before, below-normal seasons can still produce catastrophic impacts to communities,” said NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., referring to the 1992 season in which only seven named storms formed, yet the first was Andrew – a Category 5 Major Hurricane that devastated South Florida.


Figure 2. Forecast skill of the TSR, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and CSU (Colorado State University) for the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic during 1980 - 2014, as a function of lead time. Forecast precision is assessed using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS) which is the percentage improvement in mean square error over a climatology forecast (six hurricanes in a given year.) Positive skill indicates that the model performs better than climatology, while a negative skill indicates that it performs worse than climatology. Two different climatologies are used: a fixed 50-year (1950-1999) climatology, and a running prior 10-year climate norm (2005 - 2014). NOAA does not release seasonal outlooks before late May, and CSU stopped providing quantitative extended-range December hurricane outlooks in 2011. Skill climbs as the hurricane season approaches, with modest skill levels by early June, and good skill levels by early August. Using this metric, NOAA's late May forecasts have about 10% skill over chance, while TSR's have about 20% skill. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc (TSR).

TSR predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 11 named storms
The May 27 forecast for the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) will be out later today, and I will update this post with their latest numbers. Their April 9 forecast called for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 56.

CSU predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 9 named storms
Another quiet Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2015, said the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 9. They called for an Atlantic hurricane season with 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 intense hurricane, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 40. The next CSU forecast is due on Monday, June 1, and will receive a lot of media attention. My April 9 blog post has more on their forecast.

UKMET office predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 9 named storms
The UKMET office forecast for the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, issued May 21, calls for below-normal activity, with 8 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 74 occurring during the period June - November. If we add in Tropical Storm Ana, these numbers come out to 9 named storms and 5 hurricanes. In contrast to the statistical models relied upon by CSU, TSR, and NOAA, the UKMET forecast is done strictly using a dynamical global seasonal model, the Met Office GloSea5 system.

WSI predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 9 named storms
The May 27 forecast from the private weather firm WSI (part of The Weather Company, along with The Weather Channel, Weather Central, and The Weather Underground), is calling for a quiet Atlantic hurricane season with 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane. WSI cites the expectation of El Niño conditions this fall as a key factor influencing their forecast.

Penn State predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 8 named storms
The May 11 forecast made using a statistical model by Penn State's Michael Mann and alumnus Michael Kozar is calling for a quiet Atlantic hurricane season with 8 named storms, plus or minus 2.7 storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. The statistical model assumes that in 2015 the mid-May -0.18°C departure of temperature from average in the MDR will persist throughout hurricane season, the El Niño phase will be moderate, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well, except for in 2012, when an expected El Niño did not materialize:

2007 prediction: 15 named storms, Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12 named storms, Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 named storms, Actual: 19
2011 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 19
2012 prediction: 11 named storms, Actual: 19
2013 prediction: 16 named storms, Actual: 14
2014 prediction: 9 named storms, Actual: 8

NCSU predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 5 named storms
The April 19 forecast from North Carolina State University (NCSU), is calling for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season with 5 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane.

Coastal Carolina University predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 8 named storms
The April 17 forecast from Coastal Carolina University is calling for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season with 8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.

Cuban Met service predicts a below-average Atlantic hurricane season: 8 named storms
The May 4 forecast from the Cuban Meteorological Service, INSMET, is calling for a below-average Atlantic hurricane season with 9 named storms and 3 hurricanes. The forecast is based on a statistical prediction model developed by Ballester, González and Pérez (2010).


Figure 3. Departure of temperature from average for May 23 for the Northeast Pacific waters showed large areas of SSTs 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) above average. Image credit: NOAA/NHC.

NOAA predicts an above-average Eastern Pacific hurricane season: 18.5 named storms
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 27, calls for an active season, with 15 - 22 named storms, 7 - 12 hurricanes, 5 - 8 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 110% - 190% of the median. The mid-point of these ranges gives us a forecast for 18.5 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, and 6.5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 150% of average. The 1981 - 2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

NOAA predicts an above-average Central Pacific hurricane season: 5 - 8 tropical cyclones
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 27, calls for an above-average season, with 5 - 8 tropical cyclones. An average season has 4 - 5 tropical cyclones, which include tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. Hawaii is the primary land area affected by Central Pacific tropical cyclones.

TSR predicts an above-average Northwest Pacific typhoon season: 11 intense typhoons
The May 6 forecast for the 2015 Northwest Pacific season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for an active season with 27 named storms, 17 Category 1 or stronger typhoons, 11 intense Category 3 or stronger typhoons, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 400. The long-term averages for the past 50 years are 26 named storms, 16 typhoons, 8 intense hurricanes, and an ACE of 294. TSR rates their skill level as modest for these late May forecasts--13% - 28% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR’s main predictor for their typhoon season forecast is sea surface temperature (SST) in the region 5 ̊S - 5 ̊N, 140 ̊W - 180 ̊W, which they expect to be 1.0±0.5°C warmer than normal.

Invest 92E likely to become Tropical Storm Andres off the Pacific Mexican coast
The first named storm of the Northeast Pacific hurricane season usually forms by June 10, but we are likely to see Tropical Storm Andres well before that date this year. Satellite loops show that Invest 92E, located about 800 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has developed a large area of heavy thunderstorms and a good degree of spin. The GFS and European models both show 92E developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. SSTs are a very warm 30°C (86°F), which is nearly 2°C (3.6°F) above average. The 8 am EDT Wednesday SHIPS model forecast predicted that wind shear would remain light over 92E during the coming five days, and I expect 92E will develop into Tropical Storm Andres by early next week. In their 2 pm EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92E 2-day and 5-day development odds of 80% and 90%, respectively. This system is far enough offshore that it will not spread heavy rains to the coast of Mexico over the coming week as it moves west-northwest or northwest, parallel to the coast.

In the Atlantic, the models are depicting high wind shear through June 3 over the majority of the regions we typically see early-season tropical cyclone development--the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas. However, late next week we should see a decrease in wind shear, which would argue for an increased chance of tropical storm development then (though wind shear forecasts more than 7 days in advance are highly unreliable.) The prospects for an early June Tropical Storm Bill developing in the Gulf of Mexico or waters near the Bahamas are above average, given the warmer than average SSTs in these waters, and the fact that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to be active in the Western Hemisphere during the first ten days of June.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok!
Thanks Dr. Masters, hopefully we can get good soaking tropical waves hear in the NE Caribbean.
Anyways haven't seen one of these in a while. Good news for the drought, but its not enough.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1138 AM AST WED MAY 27 2015

...INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS BEGINNING FRIDAY...

AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF EXTENDED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION...MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF WEST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO AND INCLUDING THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...BETTER MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL ARRIVE
BEGINNING FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE...SITUATED BETWEEN A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN ADVANCING AREA OF MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BRING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING MUCH MORE
MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...AND THIS MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY.

AT PRESENT...THE LEAST THAT CAN BE EXPECTED IS A TURN IN THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS TO A MUCH MORE SHOWERY SCENARIO WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...MORE RAINFALL COVERAGE AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WHERE
RAIN FALLS. THIS COULD BRING WATER TO NORMALLY DRY CREEKS AND GUTS
AND RAISE THE GENERAL LEVEL OF MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE
AREA.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOCAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...MAY
RECEIVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RESULTING IN SOME LOCAL FLOODING OF
STREAMS...GUTS...LOCAL RIVERS AND LOW-LYING AREAS WHERE LOCAL
WINDS BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SAME AREA FOR MULTIPLE HOURS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THIS
HAPPENING IS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO SUNDAY NIGHT.

RESIDENTS IN AREAS NORMALLY PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE
PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES WHICH WOULD INCLUDE PREPARING PLANS TO
MOVE OR PROTECT PETS...LIVESTOCK...EQUIPMENT AND PERSONAL
BELONGINGS. RESIDENTS SHOULD ALSO REVIEW SAFETY PROCEDURES AND
EVACUATION ROUTES FOR THE MUCH DELAYED ONSET OF OUR NORMAL RAIN
AND FLOOD SEASON. THESE PLANS SHOULD BE PUT IN PLACE IF AND WHEN
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THOSE THAT LIVE BELOW AREAS THAT HAVE BURNED SHOULD BE AWARE THAT
RUNOFF WILL OCCUR MUCH SOONER AND WILL BE MUCH FASTER THAN NORMAL
OVER THE SCORCHED AND CLEARED GROUND.

WETTER CONDITIONS...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY FLOODING...ARE FORESEEN
THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

$$

SNELL
FIR-

oh, nevermind
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N105W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FRI MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW INTO A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND SCATTEROMETER
DATA AT 0340 UTC SHOWED 20-25 KT SW WINDS DISPLACED 150-240 NM
SE OF THE CIRC CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
Thanks Doc..I wonder if the low in the Atlantic will get a name. Sub tropical or not, 2 named systems in the month of May would be interesting.
wayyyy out in time but............................................... ............
Quoting Jeff Masters:

Active Atlantic Hurricane Period That Began in 1995 May be Over
As a Floridian, I'll say this, and I believe I speak for many of my fellow residents when I do: that's the best news I've heard in a long time.
Quoting 7. Neapolitan:

As a Floridian, I'll say this, and I believe I speak for many of my fellow residents when I do: that's the best news I've heard in a long time.


I need to send this blog to my insurance company - I want a better rate.
Thank you for the blogbyte Dr. Masters... using the1st amendment i say oopsie [oupe-seé] and as mentioned all you need is one major landfall, heck look at what a non TS did in OK/Texas.
Hurricane Preparation 2015

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.






How to Prepare for a Hurricane



Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues



Your Evacuation Plan


Disaster Supplies Kit




Pet Care Disaster Preparedness
Thanks. So much hurricane info. Hurricane Galore!!!! I believe that the prospects of seeing Bill are pretty solid, as we will most likely have the right development conditions. I would put the odds of seeing Bill within the next 1-2 weeks are at about 50/50, as we are seeing more model consistency and agreement.
well south Carolina area might get a bit stormy if and when this whatever gets there huh................
Quoting 7. Neapolitan:

As a Floridian, I'll say this, and I believe I speak for many of my fellow residents when I do: that's the best news I've heard in a long time.
I can dig it..And if the East Pacific is real busy, it will steal some energy from the west Atlantic and Caribbean...I think..:)
Quoting 7. Neapolitan:

As a Floridian, I'll say this, and I believe I speak for many of my fellow residents when I do: that's the best news I've heard in a long time.


Ditto in Louisiana....
So basically this blog topic is just rehashed information we already knew..
Quoting 7. Neapolitan:

As a Floridian, I'll say this, and I believe I speak for many of my fellow residents when I do: that's the best news I've heard in a long time.


It only takes one as evidenced by Andrew ...

EP922015 - INVEST

Quoting 16. vlaming:



It only takes one as evidenced by Andrew ...
oh boy you got that right whew,he was a monster





thanks for the new blog
Canadian model slowed way down with (casper) lol..and more out in the atlantic....
HURRICANE ANDREW; Hurricane Rips Louisiana Coast Before Dying Out
By PETER APPLEBOME,
Published: August 27, 1992

FRANKLIN, La., Aug. 26— Taking its second shot at the United States mainland after a five-day journey of destruction, Hurricane Andrew ripped through the oil towns and Cajun country of South Louisiana today, tearing roofs off homes, overturning trailer homes and leaving at least 230,000 people without power.

The hurricane, striking with wind speeds greater than 140 miles an hour, also produced tornadoes, caused severe flooding and left at least one person dead, bringing the hurricane's death toll to 20 in the Bahamas and the United States.

By afternoon, the hurricane had been downgraded to a tropical storm, its winds below 74 m.p.h., and by midnight to a tropical depression, with wind speeds of about 35 m.p.h. It drenched Louisiana with heavy rain for much of the day, then moved into central Mississippi, where it was centered near Jackson at midnight.

Flood watches were posted in parts of Alabama and Tennessee.

Most of the 1.6 million Louisiana residents who had evacuated their homes began returning this afternoon. 250,000 May be Homeless

There was no early estimate of how much damage the storm had done in Louisiana. But even the $15 billion to $20 billion of damage in Florida, probably made Hurricane Andrew the most expensive natural disaster in this country's history.

"The destruction from this storm goes beyond anything we have known in recent years," President Bush said today before flying to Louisiana for an inspection tour of stricken areas of that state and announcing a new hurricane relief effort. [ Page B8. ]

The damage in Louisiana, while severe in places, did not compare with the panorama of ruin in South Florida. Officials there said today that the number of Floridians left homeless by the storm could reach 250,000, including those who have moved in with family or friends. And they acknowledged problems in getting food, water and electricity to people in need. [ Page B9. ] Missed Population Areas

Mr. Bush said that on first look the damage in Louisiana "hasn't been as devastating" as the scenes he saw Monday in Miami and South Florida.

As it ended its journey across the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Andrew struck far west of the major population areas around New Orleans, moving inland over sparsely populated marshland and doing its worst damage in small towns along U. S. 90 from Morgan City to New Iberia and to sugar-cane fields that lay in its path.

"The marshes and the swamps are what took the brunt in Louisiana, and fortunately for human beings, not too many people live in the marshes," said Lee Grenci, a meteorologist with the Pennsylvania State University Weather Communications Group.

Riding in a truck, President Bush passed through flooded streets and stopped to talk to Dave and Lynn Cavalier, who were standing with their two young children in front of their house, which had been damaged by a downed pine tree.

"I think it shows that I care," Bush said when a reporter asked why he was making the trip. "Don't you think the President ought to show up when people are hurting? Gov. Edwin Edwards, a Democrat, agreed. "I think it shows he cares," he said.

The President said the damage was likely to require a special appropriation from Congress of more than the $1.1 billion it set aside after the Los Angeles riots last spring.

Later, at the Cajun Dome in Lafayette, he told reporters that he had approved $10 million to create 5,000 short-term jobs to help the storm-battered state. Earlier on Wednesday, he ordered another $10 million to help pay for the cleanup in South Florida. Path Through Cajun Country

The overwhelming feeling throughout Louisiana, particularly in New Orleans, was that the damage could have been much worse. President Bush today declared only Terrebonne Parish, the Gulf Coast area southwest of New Orleans, a disaster area. The declaration will make the parish eligible for low-interest Federally subsidized loans to help it recover from the storm.

The hurricane moved ashore early this morning about 15 miles southwest of here near Patterson, which today was a welter of overturned trailers, splintered trees and battered buildings. It then moved through the heart of Cajun country before being downgraded to a tropical storm.

In some ways, conditions here made the hurricane's blow less destructive. There is little suburban sprawl, like the areas south of Miami that took the brunt of the first half of Hurricane Andrew's 54-hour assault on the mainland. And unlike Hugo, which battered South Carolina in 1989, Andrew lost force rapidly after striking land.

Still, for those caught in its grip, Andrew was a horror of a storm.

"All of a sudden, we had no roof," said Quind Jones, of this historic sugar-cane country town where the wind gauge registered 140 m.p.h. before it broke this morning. "We lay on the floor, got wet, and waited for it to end. I'm still shaking."

At Franklin High School, set up as an emergency shelter, the winds broke skylights, showering glass on people below. Water soaked most of the building, leaving only a gymnasium dry as people huddled in the dark listening to the storm pound. 'Children Were Screaming'

Hey Doc, you got an error in your blog:

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season: 5 - 8 tropical cyclones
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 27, calls for an above-average season, with 5 - 8 tropical cyclones.


Think you got carried away with all of the below average predictions. Great blog on the whole. Thanks.
Thanks for the New Post Dr. Masters....
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
956 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND AN ONSHORE SWELL WILL BRING A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-272300-
/O.NEW.KMOB.RP.S.0015.150527T1456Z-150528T1200Z/
LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL OKALOOSA-
956 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK...WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FREQUENT LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED.
THE SURF IS DANGEROUS FOR ALL LEVELS OF SWIMMERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE LIFE-THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. IF YOU
BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP AND REMAIN CALM. DO
NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR HELP. IF YOU
HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE AND BACK
TOWARD THE BEACH WHEN POSSIBLE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY
AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.
The 1979 season is an interesting one. It too was below average with 9-5-2 but had 5 tropical cyclones active at one point:



And the two majors it produced:

Frederick (135mph)



David (175mph)



Went on to do over $3.5 billion damage (1979 USD) and kill over 2000 people. So even if the season is going to be below-average, it could still go on to be a devastating season.
Tough crowd today. LOL.
Quoting 21. LargoFl:
Canadian model slowed way down with (casper) lol..and more out in the atlantic....


Pretty good agreement from the three major models about a storm in the Baja California region in 10 days. There's almost no agreement between the models for the Atlantic basin by comparison.







This Self-Powered, Eco-Friendly Tiny House Lets You Dwell Anywhere On Earth

By Suzy Strutner


If you've ever wished you could post up on a mountaintop forever, then meet your new home.

Ecocapsule is a tiny, 86 square-foot living capsule that, as soon as next year, will enable owners to live virtually anywhere. Each mobile pod comes with sleeping space for two, a mini kitchen, a fully functional toilet and shower, storage space, a desk and two windows.

The pods, which are currently in pre-production, harvest rainwater and remove bacteria all on their own, while powering themselves with sun and wind. The capsule's battery can also charge electric cars, Gizmodo reports, making the location possibilities breathtakingly endless -- from beaches to jungles to wide-open prairies.

Pricing for the Ecocapsules is not yet available, but Slovakia-based Nice Architects do know that shipping the pods to the U.S. will not be cheap -- it's estimated to cost about $2,400 to have a pod shipped to New York City.

Or you could just skip all the kerfuffle and build your own wooden cabin.

Ahh, the great outdoors.

Way out, but wouldn't be surprised if we got hurricane Bill or Claudette, since the NCEP ensemble is picking up on development potential in the general area. The only thing that low would have to worry about would be the shear from that storm system in the jet stream.
Padera Lake Dam update

CBSDFW retweeted
Jack Fink @cbs11jack · 37m 37 minutes ago

Crews pumping 15,000 gallons per minute. W/ more rain expected, they don't want water to top coffer dam.


CBSDFW retweeted
Jack Fink @cbs11jack · 49m 49 minutes ago

Chief says contractor using crane to dig relief channel to drop lake level 3 ft lower than coffer dam
Arctic sea ice extent has just dived below two standard deviations from the average for the time of year. It'll be 'interesting' when it finally disappears in some future year. Expect a lurch forward in global temperature when it does, as all that previously reflected solar radiation is absorbed by the ocean.

35. vis0
Quoting 29. Patrap:



This Self-Powered, Eco-Friendly Tiny House Lets You Dwell Anywhere On Earth

By Suzy Strutner


If you've ever wished you could post up on a mountaintop forever, then meet your new home.

Ecocapsule is a tiny, 86 square-foot living capsule that, as soon as next year, will enable owners to live virtually anywhere. Each mobile pod comes with sleeping space for two, a mini kitchen, a fully functional toilet and shower, storage space, a desk and two windows.

The pods, which are currently in pre-production, harvest rainwater and remove bacteria all on their own, while powering themselves with sun and wind. The capsule's battery can also charge electric cars, Gizmodo reports, making the location possibilities breathtakingly endless -- from beaches to jungles to wide-open prairies.

Pricing for the Ecocapsules is not yet available, but Slovakia-based Nice Architects do know that shipping the pods to the U.S. will not be cheap -- it's estimated to cost about $2,400 to have a pod shipped to New York City.

Or you could just skip all the kerfuffle and build your own wooden cabin.

Ahh, the great outdoors.


is that a galaxy cluster (nebulah...) or is my front door on fire?
More Texas flooding, west of Ft. Worth

CBSDFW @CBSDFW · 1h 1 hour ago

"You need to be out by 8 pm or you are going to be stuck where you are at," says Parker Co. officials urging evacuation along #BrazosRiver


CBSDFW @CBSDFW · 1h 1 hour ago

Parker Co. officials say there is potential for record flood event along Brazos River in Parker County if expected 1-3" of rain falls.
Quoting 34. yonzabam:

Arctic sea ice extent has just dived below two standard deviations from the average for the time of year. It'll be 'interesting' when it finally disappears in some future year. Expect a lurch forward in global temperature when it does, as all that previously reflected solar radiation is absorbed by the ocean.




Probably not as much of a climate shock as people think since it will only be open for a few weeks in summer (at first) and the opening is towards the end of summer when solar radiation is rapidly weakening. But there will be some effect, yeah. The effect of larger open areas has already shocked the autumn climate of the Arctic coast.. winter cold comes weeks later than it used to because of the expanses of open ocean lasting into late October rather than the old pattern where ice remained near the coast and there was little open water to modify the first nascent arctic air masses coming off the ice. Autumn on the arctic coast is guaranteed different, warmer and longer, every year now compated with fifty years ago.
Quoting 30. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Way out, but wouldn't be surprised if we got hurricane Bill or Claudette, since the NCEP ensemble is picking up on development potential in the general area. The only thing that low would have to worry about would be the shear from that storm system in the jet stream.

We don't even have a disturbance yet, so it's pretty ridiculous to be talking intensities at this point. There's a signal for development either in the West Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico in the extended range, but it's not a screaming one right now.
12z latest run

I need to send this blog to my insurance company - I want a better rate.

they have a special file just waiting

Well Sport what shall we track this afternoon....How about some flooding....

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1018 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...TEXAS...

BAYOU ANACOCO NEAR ROSEPINE
VILLAGE CREEK NEAR KOUNTZE

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...TEXAS..
CALCASIEU RIVER NEAR GLENMORA
CALCASIEU RIVER NEAR OBERLIN
CALCASIEU RIVER AT OLD TOWN BAY
SABINE RIVER NEAR BON WIER
SABINE RIVER NEAR DEWEYVILLE
NECHES RIVER NEAR TOWN BLUFF

LAC003-280517-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0064.150528T0430Z-150531T0000Z/
/OBCL1.1.ER.150528T0430Z.150529T0000Z.150530T1200 Z.NO/
1018 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE CALCASIEU RIVER NEAR OBERLIN.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO SATURDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS
CANCELLED.
* AT 9:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE
TO NEAR 13.5 FEET BY TOMORROW EVENING.THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT STAGES NEAR 13.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING NEAR
THE RIVER WILL OCCUR.
winds picking up humidex feels like 90



Way out, but wouldn't be surprised if we got hurricane Bill or Claudette, since the NCEP ensemble is picking up on development potential in the general area. The only thing that low would have to worry about would be the shear from that storm system in the jet stream.


youthful enthusiasm
Thought I'd play golf this morning instead I grabbed my fishing pole and went bass fishing on the 1st fairway. What a storm last night.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport Date: 3:00 PM EDT Wednesday 27 May 2015
Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:82.8°F
Dewpoint:59.0°F
Humidity:44%
Wind:SW 24 gust 33 mph
Humidex: 90
Quoting 45. luvtogolf:

Thought I'd play golf this morning instead I grabbed my fishing pole and went bass fishing on the 1st fairway. What a storm last night.


I'm still in awe at how long the lightning persisted for. Must have been tens of thousands of lightning strikes in that storm.
my hurricane scorecard needs 3 early birds. bad news anything in the w gulf could turn out ugly
Quoting 47. tampabaymatt:



I'm still in awe at how long the lightning persisted for. Must have been tens of thousands of lightning strikes in that storm.


I agree. I've been in many nasty lightning storms before but none that lasted for about 6 hours. Do you know of a site that can tell us how many lightning strikes there were last night in our area?
Quoting 40. drg0dOwnCountry:


View on YouTube


I thoroughly enjoy seeing NASA use the coin flip analogy.

Same odds, every toss. Flip it 100 times, and it can land on the same side 100 times.

Some folks just don't understand that :-)

Quoting 34. yonzabam:

Arctic sea ice extent has just dived below two standard deviations from the average for the time of year. It'll be 'interesting' when it finally disappears in some future year. Expect a lurch forward in global temperature when it does, as all that previously reflected solar radiation is absorbed by the ocean.


Actually I think the more prominent effect will be the increased heating of the Arctic Ocean and resulting delay of re-freezing and further distortion of the polar jet stream. The global temperature response may be delayed as the water warms, but there will be a response and it will make life more ... interesting.
Quoting 16. vlaming:



It only takes one as evidenced by Andrew ...
This is doubtless true. But, still, if forced to participate, I'd rather play Russian Roulette with a single chamber loaded than the entire cylinder...
Thanks Dr. Masters. Looks like 92E should become a depression within 48 hours. Atlantic should be quiet for the next 7 days at least. Some weak signals for a possible system after that time, but nothing impressive.
Quoting 53. MAweatherboy1:

Thanks Dr. Masters. Looks like 92E should become a depression within 48 hours. Atlantic should be quiet for the next 7 days at least. Some weak signals for a possible system after that time, but nothing impressive.


ENS showing a sloppy system on either side of FL late next week as you said after 7 days. Alot can change as a lot hinges on where this upper trough cuts off. If over the Gulf then we may be in business.
Quoting 49. luvtogolf:



I agree. I've been in many nasty lightning storms before but none that lasted for about 6 hours. Do you know of a site that can tell us how many lightning strikes there were last night in our area?
From LightningMaps.org:



Rainfall totals from yesterday's epic thunderstorm in the Tampa Bay area. My location is amongst those in the red.
Quoting 40. drg0dOwnCountry:


View on YouTube

That video didn't have anything to do with Katrina at all, lol. What a misleading title.
epac has plenty of clouds. it just aint dancing yet
Quoting 35. vis0:
is that a galaxy cluster (nebulah...) or is my front door on fire?
Here's a link that actually works. That is truly one of the most ridiculous concepts I've ever seen. You're supposed to tow that thing on tiny wheels? Have they even tried to get that road licensed in the US yet? Once you're on your tiny home location, how do you secure it to the ground? You'd better have a plan, because that egg shape is perfect to get airborne. Looking at the specs, I'd guess it's going to be somewhere around $150,000 with the solar panels, battery bank, and wind generator - which, BTW, won't comply with zoning laws in many places. Or, you could buy a Safari Trek like mine for less than $15,000. It already has everything that the Slovakian egg has except for the windmill, but includes little things you might want like A/C, a generator, a real kitchen, a real bathroom, TV, Stereo/CD player, and a real living room. It has 208 sq. ft. of living space and you can actually drive it where you want on regular size wheels. Slap on $10,000 for extra solar panels, solar hot water heater, macerating toilet, and a big battery bank. You can live off the grid anywhere until you need to refill the propane tank, which happens about once a month in summer. Or, you could buy a Slovakian egg...
Quoting 54. StormTrackerScott:



ENS showing a sloppy system on either side of FL late next week as you said after 7 days. Alot can change as a lot hinges on where this upper trough cuts off. If over the Gulf then we may be in business.

I would say an increase in moisture across the Caribbean and into FL in the 7-14 day range is a good bet with that MJO moving in. If shear relaxes enough, a weak tropical cyclone may be possible as some of the models have shown. I've been watching the longer range models a little closer than usual given how well a lot of them picked Ana up from fairly long range.
Quoting 23. Astrometeor:

Hey Doc, you got an error in your blog:

NOAA predicts a below-average Central Pacific hurricane season: 5 - 8 tropical cyclones
NOAA's pre-season prediction for the Central Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 27, calls for an above-average season, with 5 - 8 tropical cyclones.


Think you got carried away with all of the below average predictions. Great blog on the whole. Thanks.


Fixed! Thanks for the catch...

--Bob H.
Quoting 55. Neapolitan:

From LightningMaps.org:




Dense concentration right over the Tampa Bay area. I was down your way back on the 17th. Got caught on the course in a thunderstorm.
nws is remembering the formation of Anna...with the coming of this new system next week....clipped this from the Melbourne fl nws..............................ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIMILARITY IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION PRIOR TO
THE FORMATION OF T.S. ANA JUST OFF OUR SE COAST EARLY THIS MONTH AS
WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE GFS OUTPERFORMED THE ECM IN HAVING INITIAL
BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...SCENARIO
POINTS TWD INCREASING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IF THE MODELS HOLD SERVE. OF COURSE...ANY POTENTIAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD 6 DAYS AWAY...AND THE STANDARD CAVEATS APPLY
W/R/T MODEL UNCERTAINTY OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE.
Quoting 57. TropicalAnalystwx13:

That video didn't have anything to do with Katrina at all, lol. What a misleading title.
A false and misleading title on a You Tube video put up as clickbait? I'm shocked, shocked I tells ya. :-)

I'm a little surprised NASA didn't make that video copy protected so people couldn't use it for their nefarious purposes. I've seen that video with at least four different and misleading titles so far. As for the subject of the video itself, I'll add the usual disclaimer -

"BUT IT JUST TAKES ONE...!!!"

Quoting 56. tampabaymatt:


Rainfall totals from yesterday's epic thunderstorm in the Tampa Bay area. My location is amongst those in the red.
Your link shows up as a blank Matt.
Quoting 62. luvtogolf:



Dense concentration right over the Tampa Bay area. I was down your way back on the 17th. Got caught on the course in a thunderstorm.
outside my window,it was like I had a strobe light on..flash/boom flash boom for 6 hours wow
Quoting 47. tampabaymatt:



I'm still in awe at how long the lightning persisted for. Must have been tens of thousands of lightning strikes in that storm.


Well especially because it was just sea breeze thunderstorm activity. It's not like we had jet stream energy or an upper low bringing forcing and cold air aloft to keep things unstable. With sea breeze thunderstorm activity, while they can get intense and produce amazing amounts of lightning, they don't normally produce a large amount for hours, and if they do, they have to move on to a new area that still has a lot of heat.

Sea breeze thunderstorms produce a lot of lightning due to high CAPE and strong vertical motion from sea breeze boundary collisions. But those conditions are typically pretty short lived, once the CAPE drops and the collision moves on, the thunderstorms should either weaken or move to a new location.

This is especially odd considering how early in the season it is. To tell you the truth, I don't really know why those thunderstorms were able to keep staying so strong and repeating over the same place without some strong synoptic forcing. I'm a bit baffled as to what happened last night. I was expecting strong thunderstorms due to some more favorable conditions than usual, but not to the degree it was yesterday, my gosh.
Here we go!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015


.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

...A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND
WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY INCREASING FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WEAK VORT MAX/LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAS BROUGHT
A LOCAL MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT INTO THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...SETTING OFF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.
OTHERWISE CU DEVELOPMENT IS FAIRLY MEAGER ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS
EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME REACHING THE COAST AT
TIMES. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
ANY ACCUMULATING OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP REMAINS LOW. INTERIOR AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD AT THE COAST IN THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH DRIER AIR.

THURSDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THOUGH
ITS INITIAL EFFECTS ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL. MODELS
STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST WITH PWATS
REMAINING AROUND 1" OR LESS AND A VERY SUPPRESSED AIRMASS. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW VORT
MAXES/CONVERGENCE BANDS MOVING INTO THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE WATERS AT TIMES WHICH MAY REACH
THE COAST...BUT IMPACTS REMAIN TOO LOW AT THIS POINT FOR PRECIP
MENTION. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE MID 80S COAST AND UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 INLAND.

ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ALONG AREA BEACHES.


THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN QSTNRY
ALONG SE ATLC SEABOARD...WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH LATE FRI.
LEADING EDGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES WILL
PUSH WESTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL/SERN COAST BY LATE THU NIGHT AND
THEN SPREAD WWD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT FRI. THIS WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER RAIN CHCS...MAINLY SHRA WITH JUST A SLGT CHC FOR TS AS ECSB
WILL BE DIFFUSE AND FAST MOVING IN BLYR FLOW OF 15KT OR SO.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA BY BEFORE SUNSET WITH SMALL
CHC FOR OVERNIGHT COASTAL SHRA RETURNING. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO
AROUND 90 INTERIOR. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S THU NIGHT AND L-M70S FRI
NIGHT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND ERLY MOISTURE SURGE.

THIS WEEKEND...AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NE OF FL WILL
FLATTEN/COLLAPSE...LEAVING LIGHT SWRLY MID FLOW OVER FL BETWEEN ITS
CARCASS AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE LWR MS VLY.
WEAKENING ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL STILL PROVIDE A LIGHTER ONSHORE FLOW
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MEAN PWAT FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHCS OVER THE INTERIOR. TEMPS REMAIN REASONABLY
CLOSE TO CLIMO...M-U80S NEAR THE COAST AND NEAR 90F INLAND.
MINSGENERALLY IN THE L70S...A FEW M70S MAINLY BEACHSIDE AREAS.

MON-WED...LOCAL WX PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
FALLS EXTEND E AND SE-WD FROM A SLOWLY EVOLVING CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO DROP VERY SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAYS 5-8 BETWEEN THE
ECM AND GFS AT THE SFC AND H50...UNTIL WED (AND BEYOND) AS THE ECM
FAILS TO SHOW THE SFC PRES FALLS OVER THE BAHAMAS LIKE THE GFS.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIMILARITY IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION PRIOR TO
THE FORMATION OF T.S. ANA JUST OFF OUR SE COAST EARLY THIS MONTH AS
WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE GFS OUTPERFORMED THE ECM IN HAVING INITIAL
BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...SCENARIO
POINTS TWD INCREASING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IF THE MODELS HOLD SERVE. OF COURSE...ANY POTENTIAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD 6 DAYS AWAY...AND THE STANDARD CAVEATS APPLY
W/R/T MODEL UNCERTAINTY OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE.
Tornado Last Night on that storm we didn't even get a T-Storm warning from..

The high winds and hail beat down our entire corn patch as well but not much else other than some branches down.
Thanks for the Blog update. I have been asking for a few years now when the "officials" would declare the end of the current active phase of the AMO. Guess I have the answer now with NOAA noting the last two seasons and related SST indicator. I previously have noted that an El Nino year would not be the best indicator to declare the end of the active phase but the last two years have featured neutral years. Sounds like three years in a row (counting this upcoming season) might be the magic number for the official declaration of "may" be the end of the active AMO phase.

If this holds true this year, and continues into the coming seasons (which could result in a less active period for 20 years or more), while the Atlantic storm totals may be less, a dangerous storm can still come around in any given year if conditions are right on approach to land fall somewhere in a populated area.

Never let your guard down.
Quoting 38. TropicalAnalystwx13:

We don't even have a disturbance yet, so it's pretty ridiculous to be talking intensities at this point. There's a signal for development either in the West Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico in the extended range, but it's not a screaming one right now.
I really don't get the NCEP ensemble. It seems to show a chance of TC formation almost everywhere almost all the time. Do you have any information about the reliability and verification of that model? I couldn't find anything about it at the NCEP site.
" The current configuration of SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean, both in the MDR and the entire North Atlantic, are suggestive that the AMO may no longer be in the warm phase."

Why? Natural cycle is not an answer! Why have things changed for a colder Atlantic with increasing CO2??
Quoting 72. Jerry1x1:
" The current configuration of SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean, both in the MDR and the entire North Atlantic, are suggestive that the AMO may no longer be in the warm phase."

Why? Natural cycle is not an answer! Why have things changed for a colder Atlantic with increasing CO2??
You think that, even with increasing CO2, one ocean (Atlantic) can't be cooler while another huge ocean (Pacific) can't be warmer? You should ask about this at a renown climate site. I'm sure they'll have a good answer for you.
That area of interest in the Atlantic is still maintaining convection and building a little more than this morning. Have no idea whether this will develop or not but just noting that some baroclinic convection is trying to fire closer to the center of of the broad circulation at the lower levels (being fed by the cooler air dropping in from the upper and mid levels on the eastern flank):



Upper Level


Lower Level



Quoting 64. sar2401:

A false and misleading title on a You Tube video put up as clickbait? I'm shocked, shocked I tells ya. :-)

I'm a little surprised NASA didn't make that video copy protected so people couldn't use it for their nefarious purposes. I've seen that video with at least four different and misleading titles so far. As for the subject of the video itself, I'll add the usual disclaimer -

"BUT IT JUST TAKES ONE...!!!"



That video is from NASA themselves; they're the one that created that title.

Quoting 71. sar2401:

I really don't get the NCEP ensemble. It seems to show a chance of TC formation almost everywhere almost all the time. Do you have any information about the reliability and verification of that model? I couldn't find anything about it at the NCEP site.

I haven't seen much about that product except from Eric Blake who said to cut the probabilities it shows in half.
2C anomalies are nearing the surface across Nino 3.4. I suspect were going up to 1.2C for Nino 3.4 next Monday on CPC's update. Also note how this second warm pool is beginning to evolve at 180W.


Kenny Strawn
‏@strawn_04 Kenny Strawn retweeted Mario Ramirez
20°C isotherm depth now at 80 meters in Niño1+2 region, and counting #ElNiño
78. 7544
Will that new system the nhc says could form by friday start to drift west ? Tia
NC State, please be wrong, and not less than 5 either lol

Quoting 674. weathermanwannabe:




It's trying to work it's way down. Models don't really do much with it besides bringing moisture to the east coast, it's in a pretty dry environment now.
Quoting 79. win1gamegiantsplease:

NC State, please be wrong, and not less than 5 either lol



It's trying to work it's way down. Models don't really do much with it besides bringing moisture to the east coast, it's in a pretty dry environment now.


I think were game for 6 to 8 systems all close to home maybe a major thrown in so be ready as overall numbers maybe low but as is always the case close to home systems can spin up fast.
Quoting 75. TropicalAnalystwx13:

That video is from NASA themselves; they're the one that created that title.


I haven't seen much about that product except from Eric Blake who said to cut the probabilities it shows in half.
I saw that was in the NASA feed after I posted. I wonder why NASA would put up such a misleading title on an otherwise useful video?

I found an interesting discussion about models in general and their reliability. It's a two part blog by Dr. Cliff Mass, who certainly has the background in numercial modeling to make his judgements. Part 1 Part 2

There's a response by the UCARN Advisory Committee to Dr Mass here. As you might expect, the UCARN committee doesn't agree with what some of what Dr. Mass wrote, but the exchange is very worthwhile to read. If nothing else, it should be something that every weather geek needs to understand. There is no doubt our forecasting abilities have fallen behind other countries. The solutions are complex but we all need to understand the issues when we look at a model forecast.
Quoting 69. JrWeathermanFL:

Tornado Last Night on that storm we didn't even get a T-Storm warning from..

The high winds and hail beat down our entire corn patch as well but not much else other than some branches down.


What area of FL are you in? That's a little freaky...I think we may need more spotters down here. Or better radar. Or something.
Quoting 78. 7544:

Will that new system the nhc says could form by friday start to drift west ? Tia


What new system
NHC didn't mentioned new system
Unless you mean that EPac system 92E
Then no models say it will eventually turn N
Quoting 73. sar2401:

You think that, even with increasing CO2, one ocean (Atlantic) can't be cooler while another huge ocean (Pacific) can't be warmer? You should ask about this at a renown climate site. I'm sure they'll have a good answer for you.
Geoengineering would be a fine explanation.
Quoting 69. JrWeathermanFL:
Tornado Last Night on that storm we didn't even get a T-Storm warning from..

The high winds and hail beat down our entire corn patch as well but not much else other than some branches down.
The SPC doesn't show a tornado report from Florida yesterday. It's an interesting photo but I don't think I can make a judgement about that being a tornado from that one photo. Florida only had a couple of scattered high wind reports with the usual tress and wires down but no hail reports. Either those reports are not being forwarded to the SPC or you guys are seeing things that don't get reported to the local NWS office.
Quoting 85. LovetoaMuse:
Geoengineering would be a fine explanation.
You think a geoengineering project that could change the water temperatures in two ocean basins is a better explanation than a cycle we've already seen for at least the past 75 years? Do you have any information to show that this was brought about by geoengineering or is that just your feeling?
Quoting 45. luvtogolf:

Thought I'd play golf this morning instead I grabbed my fishing pole and went bass fishing on the 1st fairway. What a storm last night.


Catch anything?




No end in sight for the current rainfall pattern in FL favoring the west coast, and specifically the Tampa Bay area.
Quoting 87. sar2401:

You think a geoengineering project that could change the water temperatures in two ocean basins is a better explanation than a cycle we've already seen for at least the past 75 years? Do you have any information to show that this was brought about by geoengineering or is that just your feeling?


It's been attempted on a smaller scale so who knows.....

Operation Popeye (Project Popeye/Motorpool/Intermediary-Compatriot) was a highly classified weather modification program in Southeast Asia during 1967-1972. The cloud seeding operation during the Vietnam war ran from March 20, 1967 until July 5, 1972 in an attempt to extend the monsoon season, specifically over areas of the Ho Chi Minh Trail. The operation was used to induce rain and extend the East Asian Monsoon season in support of U.S. government efforts related to the War in Southeast Asia.

The operation seeded clouds with both silver iodide and lead iodide, resulting in the targeted areas seeing an extension of the monsoon period by an average of 30 to 45 days. As the continuous rainfall slowed down the truck traffic, it was considered relatively successful.[1] However, resultant rain and subsequent flooding of the nearby Song Con River is sometimes blamed for the move of POWs from the prison camp at Son Tay and therefore, the failure of Operation Ivory Coast.[2]

Link
Quoting 65. sar2401:

Your link shows up as a blank Matt.


One of these days I'll understand how this site works. I posted a link to a GIF from a NWS site, which I thought worked universally on here. I guess not. I would try to figure out what happened, but that would mean digging through the depths of the help pages. No thanks.
Quoting 51. CaneFreeCR:

Actually I think the more prominent effect will be the increased heating of the Arctic Ocean and resulting delay of re-freezing and further distortion of the polar jet stream. The global temperature response may be delayed as the water warms, but there will be a response and it will make life more ... interesting.


This is already happening and very clear responses are evident now. They will get worse.
Quoting 86. sar2401:

The SPC doesn't show a tornado report from Florida yesterday. It's an interesting photo but I don't think I can make a judgement about that being a tornado from that one photo. Florida only had a couple of scattered high wind reports with the usual tress and wires down but no hail reports. Either those reports are not being forwarded to the SPC or you guys are seeing things that don't get reported to the local NWS office.


We got nickel sized hail here and a few of my friends confirmed that they had some too. There was some rotation on our radar. It was definately a severe thunderstorm at least even if that was something other than a tornado. But we've had unwarned storms do damage here before.
Quoting 69. JrWeathermanFL:

Tornado Last Night on that storm we didn't even get a T-Storm warning from..

The high winds and hail beat down our entire corn patch as well but not much else other than some branches down.


Looks like a scud cloud to me which is, on quite a few occasions, mistakenly thought to be a tornado. Wish the tree line wasn't in the way so one could see all the way to ground level.
Quoting 69. JrWeathermanFL:

Tornado Last Night on that storm we didn't even get a T-Storm warning from..

The high winds and hail beat down our entire corn patch as well but not much else other than some branches down.
Unfortunately, that image appears to be a fake. Too bad; it would be great to see something like that. Oh, well...
Well, we already got 1 named storm so we'll see what this one brings.

Quoting 95. StAugustineFL:



Looks like a scud cloud to me which is, on quite a few occasions, mistakenly thought to be a tornado. Wish the tree line wasn't in the way so one could see all the way to ground level.
Might be inflow? Cannot call a tornado from that pic.
Quoting 74. weathermanwannabe:

That area of interest in the Atlantic is still maintaining convection and building a little more than this morning. Have no idea whether this will develop or not but just noting that some baroclinic convection is trying to fire closer to the center of of the broad circulation at the lower levels (being fed by the cooler air dropping in from the upper and mid levels on the eastern flank):



Upper Level


Lower Level




it has a LOW possibility....................................... .......................................
Quoting 69. JrWeathermanFL:

Tornado Last Night on that storm we didn't even get a T-Storm warning from..

The high winds and hail beat down our entire corn patch as well but not much else other than some branches down.



I don't think it is. Looks like a scud but the treeline's in the way. You only report what you KNOW you see, not what you THINK you see.
Quoting 67. Jedkins01:



Well especially because it was just sea breeze thunderstorm activity. It's not like we had jet stream energy or an upper low bringing forcing and cold air aloft to keep things unstable. With sea breeze thunderstorm activity, while they can get intense and produce amazing amounts of lightning, they don't normally produce a large amount for hours, and if they do, they have to move on to a new area that still has a lot of heat.

Sea breeze thunderstorms produce a lot of lightning due to high CAPE and strong vertical motion from sea breeze boundary collisions. But those conditions are typically pretty short lived, once the CAPE drops and the collision moves on, the thunderstorms should either weaken or move to a new location.

This is especially odd considering how early in the season it is. To tell you the truth, I don't really know why those thunderstorms were able to keep staying so strong and repeating over the same place without some strong synoptic forcing. I'm a bit baffled as to what happened last night. I was expecting strong thunderstorms due to some more favorable conditions than usual, but not to the degree it was yesterday, my gosh.
local met said it had long duration because it was trapped between 2 sea breezes east and west and had the added ammo of partially being over the bay and, moisture from the gulf.
Quoting 102. LargoFl:

local met said it had long duration because it was trapped between 2 sea breezes east and west and had the added ammo of partially being over the bay and, moisture from the gulf.


That makes a lot of sense. I noticed when the first batch was hammering my home that it was moving WNW while the sea breeze boundary raced past it to the east. It was kind of weird to see so much convection fire up when the sea breeze was moving past it. Then, when the first batch of rain ended, the lightning did not. That was when I figured it was possible I'd get more, and I sure did. To be honest, last night was scary. I was worried we were headed for a 8-10 inch rain event. Thankfully it let up before things got significantly worse.
Quoting 90. tampabaymatt:



No end in sight for the current rainfall pattern in FL favoring the west coast, and specifically the Tampa Bay area.


Well we are headed into the rainy season now, and the CPC predicts above average rainfall for much of Florida with emphasis on the western side. There is some indication of Caribbean moisture and some sort of disturbance associated moving into the eastern gulf ahead of a stalled front over north Florida. That's pretty common to happen in June and July.

Interesting though that this forecast reminds me very much of how 2011, 2012, and 2013 rainy seasons started. They started wetter than average and remained mostly wetter than average through the whole period.

It's worth noting that we've been dominated by deep layered high pressure for a long time over the state which is common in May, yet a rainy season pattern managed to sneak in for the second half as deeper moisture and instability moved in, a "contaminated high" basically. You can imagine that as the high weakens as we head into the rainy season it will get more active.

Good news is, models hint at more troughing into the extended, which would mean the eastern half of the state May finally get into the action in the long term as well.

It's worth noting that the waters around the state, including the gulf, are already favorable for more widespread rainfall generated from the ocean in event of a trough.
Quoting 86. sar2401:

The SPC doesn't show a tornado report from Florida yesterday. It's an interesting photo but I don't think I can make a judgement about that being a tornado from that one photo. Florida only had a couple of scattered high wind reports with the usual tress and wires down but no hail reports. Either those reports are not being forwarded to the SPC or you guys are seeing things that don't get reported to the local NWS office.



Well I don't think it looks like a tornado, it looks like scud to me or just a capture at the right angle to make some sort of updraft inflow look like a tornado. But the wind damage although not really widespread, was more widespread than what it appears on the SPC page. There are pictures of trees down and power lines on local news sites in Pinellas that are not on the SPC reports page, as well as in other parts of Pasco, Hernando, and Hillsborough. I don't remember how many lost power, but it was well into the thousands, some of which I'm sure was from lightning, but not all of it.

Yes it wasn't widespread damage, but definitely more than the SPC page seems to make it appear. Evens with multiple damage locations often end up showing up as only 1 or 2 reports on that page.
As far as the hail, not sure, maybe there are some on the local storm report, but there was some reports of small hail of penny to nickel size, which mixed with strong winds and torrential rains, can still cause damage to some crops.

Btw, if this was well into the rainy season, it wouldn't have been strange to see the intensity of activity that was seen yesterday, but it's because it's so early in the season that many of us are surprised.
Quoting 87. sar2401:

You think a geoengineering project that could change the water temperatures in two ocean basins is a better explanation than a cycle we've already seen for at least the past 75 years? Do you have any information to show that this was brought about by geoengineering or is that just your feeling?


Scroll down this page from a couple years ago. It's a good introduction.

https://sincedutch.wordpress.com/2012/04/24/want- to-know-about-weather-modification-haarp-vlf-hf-an d-chemtrails-want-to-prove-it-to-a-non-believer-he re-you-go/

Quoting 105. Jedkins01:




Well I don't think it looks like a tornado, it looks like scud to me or just a capture at the right angle to make some sort of updraft inflow look like a tornado. But the wind damage although not really widespread, was more widespread than what it appears on the SPC page. There are pictures of trees down and power lines on local news sites in Pinellas that are not on the SPC reports page, as well as in other parts of Pasco, Hernando, and Hillsborough. I don't remember how many lost power, but it was well into the thousands, some of which I'm sure was from lightning, but not all of it.

Yes it wasn't widespread damage, but definitely more than the SPC page seems to make it appear. Evens with multiple damage locations often end up showing up as only 1 or 2 reports on that page.

As far as the hail, not sure, maybe there are some on the local storm report, but there was some reports of small hail of penny to nickel size, which mixed with strong winds and torrential rains, can still cause damage to some crops.
there was a nws warning about possible grape sized hail yesterday..didn't see any at my house.
Another WU member told me recently that if a picture won't post in your comment you should check the URL for the image. If the URL starts with https, remove the "s" and try posting the image again.
(The other way to get a photo to post is to first save it to your computer/phone, and then upload it to WU to "My Photos" and check the box that says "This is for my blog" when you upload it. You won't have to wait for the approval process on the photo, and you can click on it in your photo folder to get the WU URL, which should allow you to insert it in your comment with no problem. It's actually easier than it sounds here, once you've done it a couple times.)

Quoting 92. tampabaymatt:



One of these days I'll understand how this site works. I posted a link to a GIF from a NWS site, which I thought worked universally on here. I guess not. I would try to figure out what happened, but that would mean digging through the depths of the help pages. No thanks.
Quoting 103. tampabaymatt:



That makes a lot of sense. I noticed when the first batch was hammering my home that it was moving WNW while the sea breeze boundary raced past it to the east. It was kind of weird to see so much convection fire up when the sea breeze was moving past it. Then, when the first batch of rain ended, the lightning did not. That was when I figured it was possible I'd get more, and I sure did. To be honest, last night was scary. I was worried we were headed for a 8-10 inch rain event. Thankfully it let up before things got significantly worse.
yeah im with you on that..it sure was a scary storm..to tell the truth..ive never experienced so much Long lasting Lightning as last night..gee
Quoting 82. Weathergirlklein:



What area of FL are you in? That's a little freaky...I think we may need more spotters down here. Or better radar. Or something.


Well sometimes tornadoes can pop-up between radar scans and spin down, although I don;t think this was a tornado as the NWS local storm page has no possible tornado reports, at least not yet. Unless it touched down over the middle of the woods, it looks more like scud or a strong updraft zone where sometimes a condensation feed can develop well below the cloud due to lower pressure in the same way that a tornado produces a condensation funnel due to lower pressure.

Also as far as the spotter issue, keep in mind that sea breeze severe thunderstorm activity is not one that can be forecast with an SPC outlook. That is, not an organized forecast event. Otherwise, spotters would have to be placed on activation all the time. That combined with the fact that we are used to strong thunderstorms in the summer in Florida, means it's likely for some severe weather to either not get reported, or end up getting reported late.
"Gee"

Introduction

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
Quoting 108. EJOnPineIsland:

Another WU member told me recently that if a picture won't post in your comment you should check the URL for the image. If the URL starts with https, remove the "s" and try posting the image again.
(The other way to get a photo to post is to first save it to your computer/phone, and then upload it to WU to "My Photos" and check the box that says "This is for my blog" when you upload it. You won't have to wait for the approval process on the photo, and you can click on it in your photo folder to get the WU URL, which should allow you to insert it in your comment with no problem. It's actually easier than it sounds here, once you've done it a couple times.)


also matt..if you go back and look at what you were posting..what you posted..at the end of it said(.spacer.gif) now that would not post
Quoting 88. tampabaymatt:



At this point I'd be happy with 1/2 inch of rain over the next week, and delighted if we ended up with 3/4 inch, per that forecast.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 452 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WEBB...OR NEAR HEADLAND...AND
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HEADLAND...OZARK...KINSEY...COWARTS...WEBB...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&
18z SREF Ensembles

Quoting 80. StormTrackerScott:



I think were game for 6 to 8 systems all close to home maybe a major thrown in so be ready as overall numbers maybe low but as is always the case close to home systems can spin up fast.


I won't argue that, I'm curious as to whether we might see a much delayed and very short spurt in Cape Verde waves past the climatological peak similar to last season (albeit shorter) depending on how stable/dry the air mass is in the middle Atlantic. If we see a major I think it will be something similar to Bill in '09 or maybe something in the gulf.
FL wet season starts next week.

18Z GFS is an oh oh................................................ ...................................
I guess from run to run track will change,what hasn't changed ..GFS says there WILL be a storm next week..
Quoting 26. Envoirment:

The 1979 season is an interesting one. It too was below average with 9-5-2 but had 5 tropical cyclones active at one point:



And the two majors it produced:

Frederick (135mph)



David (175mph)



Went on to do over $3.5 billion damage (1979 USD) and kill over 2000 people. So even if the season is going to be below-average, it could still go on to be a devastating season.


It's worth mentioning that of the 91 points of total ACE generated that season, about 82 points came when the MJO was in phases 1-2, which means that about 90% of that season's total activity came from MJO phases 1 and 2 alone and this is by far the largest 2 phase proportion of any season since RMM data became available in 1974.

The following are the top 10 years w/ the most phase 1 and 2 ACE

Top 10 Years MJO Phase 1 (1974-2012)
#1 1979 57.7 pts
#2 1995 29.4 pts
#3 1980 26.8 pts
#4 2005 24.2 pts
#5 1999 22.2 pts
#6 1998 21.8 pts
#7 2008 21.6 pts
#8 2009 19.6 pts
#9 1989 13.1 pts
#10 2000 12.3 pts

Top 10 Years MJO Phase 2 (1974-2012)
#1 2004 99.7 pts
#2 1981 42.2 pts
#3 2008 38.0 pts
#4 2000 37.6 pts
#5 2001 35.1 pts
#6 1989 34.5 pts
#7 2007 25.2 pts
#8 1979 24.3 pts
#9 2011 20.7 pts
#10 1999 19.2 pts

I have more confidence that Bill will form.
Quoting 121. LargoFl:

I guess from run to run track will change,what hasn't changed ..GFS says there WILL be a storm next week..


Just remember, GFS often suffers from convective feedback with these types of set-ups. Looks more like just a persistent onshore flow along the SE US, ala, well defined coastal trough.
Quoting 119. sflmike:

FL wet season starts next week.




"Starts" next week? I'm almost at 11 inches for the 2nd half of May alone.
Hope so, we could use the rain.
Quoting 121. LargoFl:

I guess from run to run track will change,what hasn't changed ..GFS says there WILL be a storm next week..
Quoting 126. hurricanewatcher61:

Hope so, we could use the rain.


I am going to Orlando for my birthday, what a great present!!
Quoting 72. Jerry1x1:

" The current configuration of SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean, both in the MDR and the entire North Atlantic, are suggestive that the AMO may no longer be in the warm phase."

Why? Natural cycle is not an answer! Why have things changed for a colder Atlantic with increasing CO2??


Natural cycle is the answer.

The ocean is not evenly heated, nor is heat evenly distributed through the ocean. The ocean also has an incredible amount of thermal capacity. These thermal differences, along with various other factors, drive oceanic circulation. It's like a big heat engine, only in slow motion.

Most ocean currents take quite a long time to circulate. Deep ocean currents can take many many decades to cycle. However the surface ones can cycle from periods of less than one year to thirty years depending on which one you're talking about.

Look up some animations of sea surface temperatures. These are just the surface temperatures so you won't see any of the deep dynamaics, but it should give you an idea of what's going. If you really want a complete understanding I suggest reading up on oceanography, though I recommend you have a strong math background before doing so.
Quoting 106. LovetoaMuse:



Scroll down this page from a couple years ago. It's a good introduction.

https://sincedutch.wordpress.com/2012/04/24/want- to-know-about-weather-modification-haarp-vlf-hf-an d-chemtrails-want-to-prove-it-to-a-non-believer-he re-you-go/



I'm gonna invest in tin foil. Seems the demand is high
Quoting 125. tampabaymatt:



"Starts" next week? I'm almost at 11 inches for the 2nd half of May alone.
The east coast of FL wet season.
133. 882MB
That's quite a nice non-tropical low pressure system to look at, out in the North Central Pacific.

Quoting 85. LovetoaMuse:

Geoengineering would be a fine explanation.


If you're referring to increased greenhouse gases as geoengineering, then yes. Otherwise, no. We could fire our entire nuclear arsenal into the oceans and it wouldn't even register.
Quoting 106. LovetoaMuse:


Scroll down this page from a couple years ago. It's a good introduction.

https://sincedutch.wordpress.com/2012/04/24/want- to-know-about-weather-modification-haarp-vlf-hf-an d-chemtrails-want-to-prove-it-to-a-non-believer-he re-you-go/

Well, there sure is a lot of stuff on that page. Let me deal with three things I know a little about.

1. Precipitation enchancement - Goes on all the time in many parts of the United States and the world. I was a consultant for a large utility on the Pacific coast that had a rainfall enchancement project going on since about 1952. I retired in 2005 but I assume it's still going on. It was a program to seed clouds in winter storms to create more rain over the areas of our large reservoirs. Sometimes it worked and sometimes it didn't. By the late 90's, they were getting pretty good withe techniques. They were able to increase the average rainfall from some large winter storm by about 10%. Yep, that's it, 10%. They weren't able to do more because the areas that had to seed are huge. You have to seed way downstream in a storm to get focused increased precipitation in an area of about 100 square miles. We only had three planes, two Cessna 172's and a Beech King Air. The King Air was the only one that had the instrument and radar capability to seed when the storm was really bad and, even then, it was grounded when conditions got too tough. The chief pilot once estimated they might be able to cover the areas needed during a storm if they had maybe 25 WC-130's, like the hurricane hunters fly. That budget request didn't go through. The point is that these forms of weather modification are well known, not secret, and have been going on in some cases for the past 65 years. Their only intention is to increase rainfall over water storage areas. Even that only works if they have a storm to seed. They can't create rain out of a clear sky. The goal seems pretty reasonable to me, especially since I lived in California and much of our water and electricity came from stored sources.

2. HAARP -I worked with some of the people at HAARP. Yes, I'm one of them, you've caught me. I mean, I didn't go to Alaska and work with them, I did it from home. Didn't get paid either. I must have some kind of chip implanted in me to work for free. I'm an Extra Class amateur radio operator. The scientists at HAARP were trying figure out how far moon bounce HF signals could be recieved if the receiving station was operated in a very low noise environment. They were also studying disruption or enchancement of HF signals by auroras and meteor scatter. Alaska was perfect for low noise as well as auroras. I had the equipment and antennas to make this work. We'd transmit very low power (5 watts or less) signals through an antenna precisely aimed at the face of the moon that should generate a moon bounce signal at their facility in Alaska. We'd do this on a schedule at different times of the day so they would know exactly the transmit time. With that, they could figure out the nearly exact location of the signal. It was pretty exciting stuff from a radio geek pint of view. Unfortunately, it didn't work. We could never get the moon bounce signals well enough focused to always hit Alaska, and auroras wiped out the signal rather than enhancing it. Darn! All the people I worked with seemed like other radio geeks to me. They invited me up for a tour but, since they weren't going to pay for it, I had to turn it down. The good thing about our experiment was we proved it wouldn't work. There was information from those other secet guys that the Russkies were trying the same thing as a means of communication worldwide with their subs. Because we proved it wouldn't work, the Navy didn't have to spend the money for what would have been a failed system. That seems like a commendable undertaking to me. Unfortunately for a lot of scientific studies, HAARP lost its entire budget and closed down late last year. One of the reasons Congress wouldn't fund them again was because of all the wingnuts that said HAARP was involved in things like everything from controlling the weather to causing airliners to crash. Too bad for actual science...

3. Enhanced laser weapons - That egg looking thing in one of the pictures is a Laser Weapons System (LaWS). The Navy loves acronyms. I know about this one because one of my relatives is working on it now. Some of what it does is secret. That makes sense, since other countries with less advanced systems would love to steal ours. If it works like they expect, it might be able to shoot down a plane or incoming missile at 1 mile, and destroy a small boat out to about 300 meters. It's only mounted on one vessel now, the USS Ponce, a landing ship dock they're using for testing this weapon. One of the reasons they chose an LSD is that it has space to install additonal generators, and you need it with a laser weapon. My relative slipped and said the ship has 150kw's worth of generators. Loose lips sink ships, I told him...or her, as the case may be. The public estimates are the LaWS needs somewhere between 50 to 75 kw each time it fires. The generating system has to be able to build back up to firing power within two seconds for the next shot. If this works, it will be a great weapon for the Navy. If a LaWS had been on the USS Cole that small boat attack might not have succeeded. The main point is not about the weapon itself but the power requirements. 100 kw is a lot of power. It's about enough to supply 10 homes on average. This is what's needed to shoot down a relatively small airplane or missile, but only out to a mile. A larger target, like the boat used in the Cole attack, is a lot more difficult and the range is much less. Now, apply lasers to something like heating up the ocean. I don't know how much that would be but the esitmates I've seen to raise the Atlantic by one degree centigrade is about 100,000 terrawatt hours, depending on how this heating would be done. That's just about the amount of power produced in the entire world at any instant in time. That would require quite a power plant, and someone would probably notice. The problem with things like lasers as some kind of feared machine to change the weather is that what's proposed is impossible with any kind of system we have today, and some of it is far outside the bounds of physics.

I think people get confused (and afraid) of what the military and governments would like to do compared to what they can actually do. I never met anyone in the miltary that didn't dream of Buck Rogers type systems. The problem is we can't afford them and many of them aren't physically possible to do. I've already written a novel here, so all I can add is that it's up to you if you want to believe all these conspiracy theories. I'm just another guy on the internet but, from what I've seen of a few of them, they are a lot less menacing than websites that want to sell you a year's supply of food make them out to be.
Quoting 91. yoboi:



It's been attempted on a smaller scale so who knows.....

Operation Popeye (Project Popeye/Motorpool/Intermediary-Compatriot) was a highly classified weather modification program in Southeast Asia during 1967-1972. The cloud seeding operation during the Vietnam war ran from March 20, 1967 until July 5, 1972 in an attempt to extend the monsoon season, specifically over areas of the Ho Chi Minh Trail. The operation was used to induce rain and extend the East Asian Monsoon season in support of U.S. government efforts related to the War in Southeast Asia.

The operation seeded clouds with both silver iodide and lead iodide, resulting in the targeted areas seeing an extension of the monsoon period by an average of 30 to 45 days. As the continuous rainfall slowed down the truck traffic, it was considered relatively successful.[1] However, resultant rain and subsequent flooding of the nearby Song Con River is sometimes blamed for the move of POWs from the prison camp at Son Tay and therefore, the failure of Operation Ivory Coast.[2]

Link



Your comparing a cloud seeding operation to heating and cooling entire oceanic basins. You're comparing apples to galaxies (yes, it's about that order of magnitude difference in energy).
That red spot is right over me.
Quoting 126. hurricanewatcher61:

Hope so, we could use the rain.
Well, cripes, that comment got completely messed up when I posted it and it won't let me edit it. I guess the novel was just too big. Sorry for giant wall of text.
Darn! image didn't post.
Quoting 137. hurricanewatcher61:

That red spot is right over me.
Thomas Huxley and Richard Arman Gregory on Carbon Dioxide and Climate in %u2018PHYSIOGRAPHY%u2019, %u2018by Huxley and Gregory%u2019(1904)



Click to enlarge

Read more at andThenThere'sPhysics ...
NWS out Melbourne. Yes! finally some good rains. Hope it pans out.


MON-WED...LOCAL WX PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
FALLS EXTEND E AND SE-WD FROM A SLOWLY EVOLVING CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO DROP VERY SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAYS 5-8 BETWEEN THE
ECM AND GFS AT THE SFC AND H50...UNTIL WED (AND BEYOND) AS THE ECM
FAILS TO SHOW THE SFC PRES FALLS OVER THE BAHAMAS LIKE THE GFS.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIMILARITY IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION PRIOR TO
THE FORMATION OF T.S. ANA JUST OFF OUR SE COAST EARLY THIS MONTH AS
WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE GFS OUTPERFORMED THE ECM IN HAVING INITIAL
BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...SCENARIO
POINTS TWD INCREASING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IF THE MODELS HOLD SERVE. OF COURSE...ANY POTENTIAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD 6 DAYS AWAY...AND THE STANDARD CAVEATS APPLY
W/R/T MODEL UNCERTAINTY OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE.

Quoting 135. sar2401:

. I never met anyone in the miltary that didn't dream of Buck Rogers type systems. The problem is we can't afford them and many of them aren't physically possible to do. I've already written a novel here, so all I can add is that it's up to you if you want to believe all these conspiracy theories. I'm just another guy on the internet but, from what I've seen of a few of them, they are a lot less menacing than websites that want to sell you a year's supply of food make them out to be.


Lead proponent and author of geoengineering, Dr. David Keith, says on the contrary,

"It's technically feasible and relatively inexpensive to do".

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/give-geoenginee ring-a-chance-to-fix-climate-change-david-keith-1. 2586882

He says it's cheap at 2:03. It has to be, the skies worldwide are covered in it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkEys3PeseALink



Quoting 121. LargoFl:
I guess from run to run track will change,what hasn't changed ..GFS says there WILL be a storm next week..
However, the ECMWF shows nothing at about that same time -



The CMC/GEM from about that same time shows a weak low far offshore from Florida and the Bahamas -



The models are actually starting to diverge from the GFS solution since yesterday. The thing to watch for over the next five days is not the GFS but the ECMWF and CMC/GEM. If they start agreeing with the GFS, then we really might have a storm next week. If they keep diverging, it's still possible the GFS is right, but that possibility decreases with each passing day.
Quoting 142. LovetoaMuse:


Lead proponent and author of geoengineering, Dr. David Keith, says on the contrary,

"It%u2019s technically feasible and relatively inexpensive to do".

a href="" target="_blank">Link

He says it's cheap at 2:03. It has to be, the skies worldwide are covered in it.



Your link didn't work. However, I'm aware of David Keith and some of his proposals. He says lots of things, and tends to downplay both cost and possible harm from his geoengineering solutions to global warming. There's a big difference from what he says to anything that's being done. There are all kinds of people out there on the fringes, and Keith is one of them.
Quoting 142. LovetoaMuse:


Lead proponent and author of geoengineering, Dr. David Keith, says on the contrary,

"It's technically feasible and relatively inexpensive to do".

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/give-geoenginee ring-a-chance-to-fix-climate-change-david-keith-1. 2586882

He says it's cheap at 2:03. It has to be, the skies worldwide are covered in it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkEys3PeseALink



From the link, which worked this time -

"Keith is not calling for an immediate adoption of geoengineering. What he wants to see is scientific and political energy poured into research into geoengineering's possibilities and risks, and a robust public debate so that informed policy decisions can be made about whether it's a viable tool to prevent the worst effects of climate change."

Rather different than it's being done now or in the near future and everyone's in favor of it.
Scott NOAA said weak/moderate El-Nino
Trying to rain in Lake Worth, Fl. Just some light showers...



Quoting 106. LovetoaMuse:



Scroll down this page from a couple years ago. It's a good introduction.

https://sincedutch.wordpress.com/2012/04/24/want- to-know-about-weather-modification-haarp-vlf-hf-an d-chemtrails-want-to-prove-it-to-a-non-believer-he re-you-go/




You know, I was running a low on my intake of crazy today. Thanks.

There's no evidence on that site. It's a bunch of conspiracy nutter garbage that has about as much scientific credibility as a Road Runner cartoon. The HAARP conspiracy claims by themselves violate just about every fundamental principle of matter and energy. It's the equivalent of me saying I can melt my car into a pile molten metal with a flashlight.

Here's some signs that what your reading might not be credible:

1. Outrageous claims with no evidence or uses claims of conspiracy.
2. Violates basic laws of physics, thermodynamics, chemistry, etc.
3. The same or similar claims can be found on OverUnity, WUWT, FlatEarth, Creationist or other known crank/psuedo-science sites.

If the site you're reading or linking to meets any of these criteria, then that site isn't worth the electrons used to send it to your screen.
Quoting 115. LargoFl:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

The storms down here turned out to be duds, although I did pick up .60" from a cell that passed through. No lightning or thunder, but we did get a gust front just before the rain with a few gusts of 25 mph. They're having a lot more problems up north between Montgomery and Birmingham, with many reports of trees down and some flash flooding. Unfortunately, there aren't many observing stations in the areas with the most rain, but the radar estimates are from two to three inches in the last several hours.
Quoting 141. hurricanewatcher61:
NWS out Melbourne. Yes! finally some good rains. Hope it pans out.


MON-WED...LOCAL WX PATTERN WILL BECOME UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
FALLS EXTEND E AND SE-WD FROM A SLOWLY EVOLVING CUTOFF LOW WHICH IS
PROGGED TO DROP VERY SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE LWR MS VLY DURING THIS
PERIOD. THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAYS 5-8 BETWEEN THE
ECM AND GFS AT THE SFC AND H50...UNTIL WED (AND BEYOND) AS THE ECM
FAILS TO SHOW THE SFC PRES FALLS OVER THE BAHAMAS LIKE THE GFS.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THE SIMILARITY IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION PRIOR TO
THE FORMATION OF T.S. ANA JUST OFF OUR SE COAST EARLY THIS MONTH AS
WELL AS THE FACT THAT THE GFS OUTPERFORMED THE ECM IN HAVING INITIAL
BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO SHORE. IN ANY EVENT...SCENARIO
POINTS TWD INCREASING RAIN CHCS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IF THE MODELS HOLD SERVE. OF COURSE...ANY POTENTIAL LOW
DEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD 6 DAYS AWAY...AND THE STANDARD CAVEATS APPLY
W/R/T MODEL UNCERTAINTY OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE.




GFS has 8" to 10" the next 10 days for Eastern FL.



146. gulfbreeze
5:10 PM PDT on May 27, 2015
1
+
Scott NOAA said weak/moderate El-Nino


that was moths a go some in tells me you have not been on here a lot has of late we are now closeing in on moderate/strong EL NINO
I feel like a Star Trek Red Shirt crewman on a Landing Party.

The derp is palatable.
Quoting 151. Tazmanian:


146. gulfbreeze
5:10 PM PDT on May 27, 2015
1
+
Scott NOAA said weak/moderate El-Nino


that was moths a go some in tells me you have not been on here a lot has of late we are now closeing in on moderate/strong EL NINO
Just reading what was posted today at the top of todays blog.
Quoting 91. yoboi:


It's been attempted on a smaller scale so who knows
Yes indeed. I have an old Yugo. With enough money, parts and engineering, it could be turned into a Ferrari. It's been attempted before, on a small scale, to turn a Yugo into a Pinto, so who knows....???
While in other news, we are on the verge of having TD 1-E
Quoting 142. LovetoaMuse:



Lead proponent and author of geoengineering, Dr. David Keith, says on the contrary,

"It's technically feasible and relatively inexpensive to do".

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/give-geoenginee ring-a-chance-to-fix-climate-change-david-keith-1. 2586882

He says it's cheap at 2:03. It has to be, the skies worldwide are covered in it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkEys3PeseALink






Now that's a great strategy. Why address the actual problem when covering it up and pretending it isn't there is so much easier. After all, ignoring a problem makes it eventually go away on it's own,

Unfortunately reality doesn't work that way. Applying any geoengineering with our level of technology is just plain stupid. How many times have we been bitten on the backside now from our activities? And we weren't even TRYING to mess with the environment. It just happened as unintentional side effects to our activities. I can only imagine what the side effects will be if we purposely try to mess with the environment.

Then, of course, it does nothing to address the actual problem. As has been stated many times, CO2 is a long lived gas and we keep adding more. Sure we can put up giant solar shades, or try and increase cloud cover, or whatever ever else to try and cool the planet down, but the conditions that were causing it to warm in the first place would still be there. And that's assuming our actions don't somehow further screw us over with unintended consequences.
post 150- Scott I'd love to see it BUT don't follow the GFS for this event; follow the ECMWF and flavor it with the HWRF

GFS is grand fairy dust right now- pay more attention to east coast men's wrestling federation

(post 150 was too big to quote)

good lord I sound like vis0


Capitalism Could Kill All Life on Earth
Tuesday, 26 May 2015 00:00



Are we going to let capitalism destroy life on Earth?

According to 99 percent of climate scientists – we'll know by the end of the century.

Scientists have agreed for three decades about what is causing atmospheric temperatures to rise – humans are burning Earth's carbon resources to fuel economic activity.

But even before we knew what was causing the temperature to rise – scientists warned about the dire global impacts of a two degree increase in atmospheric temperatures.

Earth's climate has been basically stable for hundreds of thousands of years.

See more news and opinion from Thom Hartmann at Truthout here.

But that changed during the industrial revolution - when Great Britain realized the potential of coal-powered steam engines.

Soon continental Europe and the US followed suit.

And more than 150 years later – coal, oil and natural gas dominate the global politics and economics: wars are fought over oil; communities are destroyed for coal; and increasingly scarce water supplies are poisoned by natural gas extraction.

The Earth has already warmed about one degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels - which means we have to change our energy system completely before the Earth warms another degree in order to avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change.

Is it possible?

Scientists say "Yes!" - BUT it will require us to take bold and immediate steps towards a completely renewable energy system.

The technology exists – the shortfall is in investment.

According to the IMF – oil companies get $5.3 trillion in subsidies worldwide per year.

And the oil companies pay only a portion – if any – of the environmental costs of ripping fossil fuels from the ground and burning the CO2 into the atmosphere.

In other words, every living human being and government are paying for coal, oil, and gas companies to profit from the destruction our planet.

And that's not a market failure – that's how the market was set up.

Capitalism as we know it isn't the solution – it's the problem.

In a report in "Nature Climate Change" – scientists point out that we can keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius – if every country takes bold and immediate action to deploy current clean energy and limit the use of fossil fuels.

The biggest failure in our system is that there is no price on carbon.

Burning fossil fuels and releasing carbon into our atmosphere has very real costs that corporations aren't paying for – costs that are being kicked down the road for future generations.

In the US, we've let the fossil fuel industry become so profitable that it relentlessly funds campaigns and lobbies to keep oil subsidies in place and weaken environmental regulations - all at the expense of our communities and our planet.

Our current oligarchs claim that renewable power isn't efficient or cheap enough to be competitive or to reliably replace fossil fuels – but that's just not true.

Solar, wind, and wave technology are all ready to be deployed at large scales – and Denmark, Germany, the UK and China, among others, are doing it right now.

Our transportation system is ready for renewables – solar roadways in the Netherlands are proving more effective than expected – and over two dozen models of electric cars are now out on the market.

Our households are ready for renewables: LED lightbulbs and high efficiency appliances mean that households use less energy – and affordable rooftop solar means that households can meet a lot their own energy needs.

We can make renewables competitive if we just cut subsidies to oil and coal companies and enforce our clean air and clean water regulations – but that means getting money out of politics so that legislation is written in the interest of communities and the planet - instead of corporations.

Capitalism is great at creating profits and products – but it doesn't care about environmental justice.

Capitalism doesn't care whether we restore our forests and soils so that the planet can begin to reabsorb the carbon we've dumped into the atmosphere.

Capitalism doesn't care whether streams are poisoned or if the air is noxious – it doesn't care if a river burns because of pollution – and it doesn't care if another technology is 'cleaner' - unless the 'dirty' option becomes unprofitable.

That's why we need both more regulation of the fossil fuel industry - and public investments into clean energy like solar and wind.

Capitalism is to make money - but a government like our republic is put into place to protect the people from those whose quest for money harms society. We cannot replace democratic government with capitalism – and climate change proves this.

In fact - climate change challenges capitalism at its very root – is an economy really growing when all the costs are dumped on society while a handful of corporations and billionaires take all the profits?

Science says that we can keep global temperatures from rising another half degree – but it can't be left to a private sector that makes its profits from leaving the costs to everybody else.

It's time for a New Green Deal – we need to stop directly and indirectly subsidizing the fossil fuel industry and we need to invest in a large-scale deployment of current clean energy technologies – one that will create permanent, sustainable jobs, and protect the Earth for future generations.
160. 882MB
92E is quite a large and impressive system, we might not only have our first storm, but if conditions remain favorable like there expected to, we might even have our first major of the 2015 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.



I asked this last night and didn't get even one response! C'mon y'all.

On Saturday May 23rd, the high in Phoenix AZ was 83 degrees while in Fairbanks, AK it was 86. Before Saturday, how many times did Fairbanks AK have a warmer high than Phoenix, AZ? (ties don't count)

A 0
B 3
C 7
D 12
E 19
162. 882MB
Quoting 161. BaltimoreBrian:

I asked this last night and didn't get even one response! C'mon y'all.

On Saturday May 23rd, the high in Phoenix AZ was 83 degrees while in Fairbanks, AK it was 86. Before Saturday, how many times did Fairbanks AK have a warmer high than Phoenix, AZ? (ties don't count)

A 0
B 3
C 7
D 12
E 19


D?
161, C, SSI

I always wanted to visit that little island up the road from me-
heard there was a nice little bar/restaurant there

but now there's no reason

old friends fade like clouds, SSI
Goodnight to everyone.

My thoughts and prayers go out to all of those being affected negatively by the weather all around the world. There is some pretty extreme stuff happening recently.

2015 looks another dead season in the Atlantic. I remember partway through last year, I made a statement that the multi-decadal active period appears to be over. It would appear that I was right.

92E looks set to be a monster. Impressive size and good conditions ahead mean it should at least make it to Cat 3 status.

Looking for some much needed rain here in Barbados with an approaching TWave.
I find it very interesting how 2 the highest ACE earning storms in the historical record (San Ciriaco 1899 & Ivan 2004) have occurred during El Nino events... Underlying (redundant) lesson: ENSO is a viable predictor of general seasonal hurricane activity, but not individual storms.





The following is a list of the top 25 all-time highest ACE earning storms (1851-present) & the bolded storms occurred during El Nino events. Even though there are significantly less high ACE earning storms overall, it's not impossible to see one in any given year despite what the background conditions make dictate.
Rank (#), Storm, (Year), ACE
#1 San Ciriaco (1899) 73.6 pts
#2 Ivan (2004) 71.4 pts
#3 Donna (1960) 64.6 pts
#4 Charleston (1893) 63.5 pts
#5 Isabel (2003) 63.3 pts
#6 Carrie (1957) 62.6 pts
#7 Ft. Lauderdale (1947) 62.1 pts
#8 Four (1926) 60.0 pts
#9 Cuba (1932) 59.8 pts
#10 Four (1906) 56.0 pts
#11 Dog (1950) 54.9 pts
#12 Inez (1966) 54.6 pts
#13 Luis (1995) 53.5 pts
#14 Allen (1980) 52.3 pts
#15 Esther (1961) 52.2 pts
#16 Seven (1878) 50.8 pts
#17 Flora (1963) 49.4 pts
#18 Edouard (1996) 49.3 pts
#19 Beulah (1967) 47.9 pts
#20 Lake Okeechobee (1928) 47.7 pts
#21 Betsy (1965) 47.0 pts
#22 Frances (2004) 45.8 pts
#23 Faith (1966) 45.8 pts
#24 Atlantic-Gulf (1919) 45.3 pts
#25 Three (1853) 45.1 pts
Quoting 151. Tazmanian:


146. gulfbreeze
5:10 PM PDT on May 27, 2015
1
+
Scott NOAA said weak/moderate El-Nino


that was moths a go some in tells me you have not been on here a lot has of late we are now closeing in on moderate/strong EL NINO
I believe that Strong El Niño will likely come. Man it's going to be a fun winter this year in thr south I believe,


Serious Injuries Reported After Tornado Hits Texas Drilling Rig



A tornado touched down in northwestern Texas Wednesday, damaging a gas drilling rig and resulting in serious injuries, the Hemphill County Sheriff's Office and a hospital official said.

The number and severity of the injuries after the twister touched down north of Canadian was not immediately released. The National Weather Service confirmed the tornado at 5:20 p.m. local time and warned people to take shelter.

Hemphill County Hospital Chief Executive Christi Francis said three patients with serious injuries from the tornado are being treated at the facility, but could not say if they were hurt at the gas rig or somewhere else.


The tornado north of Canadian, Texas, a town of about 2,600 people in the northeast corner of the Panhandle, comes as other parts of the state have been hammered by heavy rains that have killed at least 14 people in central and southeastern parts of the state, including Houston.

RELATED: Death Toll Rises in Texas as More Bodies Identified After Storms

The National Weather Service said thunderstorms in the Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma Panhandle are possible Wednesday night, with the potential for damaging hail and winds.

More rain fell Wednesday on Houston, where six people died in flooding after weekend storms, but the National Weather Service the chance for more thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday morning remains low.

The deaths of seven people in Oklahoma have been blamed on severe weather since Friday, authorities have said. One of those deaths was caused by a tornado that struck Bryan County on Monday, officials said.

Quoting 161. BaltimoreBrian:

I asked this last night and didn't get even one response! C'mon y'all.

On Saturday May 23rd, the high in Phoenix AZ was 83 degrees while in Fairbanks, AK it was 86. Before Saturday, how many times did Fairbanks AK have a warmer high than Phoenix, AZ? (ties don't count)

A 0
B 3
C 7
D 12
E 19


C) 7 (but now it's 8) :)
post 163
I got it right first-

and a long time ago.

The crickets scream...
EP, 92, 2015052800, , BEST, 0, 101N, 1083W, 25, 1006, LO,
172. MahFL
Quoting 125. tampabaymatt:



"Starts" next week? I'm almost at 11 inches for the 2nd half of May alone.


1.3 in here in NE Florida. Grass is holding on but getting crispy.
very interesting since 05- almost nothing crazy
Pat, you haven't posted that picture of the Hydra for a while -- seems like the Forcings are getting pretty busy with the strike-back all around the world. Might be sump'n to it? Texas has been a pretty big source of forcings -- it seems only appropriate some of the strike-back is happening there.
Quoting 174. CaneFreeCR:

Pat, you haven't posted that picture of the Hydra for a while -- seems like the Forcings are getting pretty busy with the strike-back all around the world. Might be sump'n to it? Texas has been a pretty big source of forcings -- it seems only appropriate some of the strike-back is happening there.


It has crossed my mind today esp, but no.

I dont want to impart a implied dread during a relief time for many.

People catch on to what's new and usually can come to their own conclusions,

The posts the last 48 tell a lot though,

Rain Rates, constant thunder, long lightning.

Storms have more oomph is the chatter.

And the year hasn't even hit June 1 yet,

Buckle up.

176. yoboi
Well sport we have some flooding....

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
850 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

Bayou Anacoco Near Rosepine
Village Creek Near Kountze

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

Sabine River Near Bon Wier
Sabine River Near Deweyville
Neches River Near Town Bluff
Neches River Near Beaumont
Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake

LAC011-019-TXC351-361-281550-
/O.CON.KLCH.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DWYT2.2.ER.150522T1845Z.150529T0600Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
850 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
The Sabine River Near Deweyville.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 7:45 PM Wednesday the stage was 26.2 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 26.7 feet by
early Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 26.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding will
occur. The lowest homes between Deweyville and the river begin to
flood, especially in the Indian Lakes and River Oaks sections.
Low-lying roads and a few homes in Southwestern Beauregard Parish
have some flooding.
Webberweather53 got it right but aquak9 got it right first. The rest of aquak9s comment is strange and I don't understand it--*shrug*

The answer is C, Fairbanks has now had a high warmer than Phoenix 8 times.
Sometime in the few years before 1976, maybe in the late 1960s, UAF Geophysical Institute's Neil Davis and his buds created an artificial Aurora. I know that because he and his wife, Rosemarie, were neighbors on one of my favorite islands.

HAARP talk always reminds me of that successful Aurora experiment.
“In a dark place we find ourselves, and a little more knowledge lights our way.”


Quoting 169. Webberweather53:



C) 7 (but now it's 8) :)
F) Some of you might like Fairbanks in summer.


India's Deadly Heatwave Melting Roads

May 27, 2015, 3:08 PM ET

By SUSANNA KIM

A devastating heatwave has left more than 1,100 people dead over the past month in India, and photos also show the toll on the country's infrastructure.

Temperatures in the southeastern states of Andhra Pradesh and Telengana have reached 113 degrees in the past two days, The Associated Press reported. More than 1,100 people have reportedly died in the past month from heat-related causes in those two states, with at least 852 dead in Andhra Pradesh.

About 1,100 People Dead as Summer Temperatures Soar in India
Flash Floods Leave Apocalyptic Scenes Across Texas

A drought in much of India, along with a busy typhoon season, could spell trouble for a billion people in Asia this summer, according to AccuWeather. Public announcements urge people to drink water and stay indoors during the hottest hours of the day, the AP reported.

El Niño, a warm phase of the fluctuation of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is likely leading to an above-average number of typhoons and super-typhoons, AccuWeather reports. But El Niño may displace the already-delayed monsoon, leading to below-normal rainfall in India.

Weather officials blamed northwesterly dry and hot winds from the desert state of Rajasthan for the extreme heat.

great so now we are in drought for 20 years
Interesting.

Patrap could use this GIF instead. Or maybe not ;)

186. yoboi
Well he was wrong with Arctic ice being gone during 2014....Guess we will see if this doomsday prediction for tomorrow will happen....

The clip which first appeared on YouTube and has been shared across social media sites claims there will be a monstrous earthquake in Los Angeles and San Francisco on Thursday at about 4pm local time.

The disastrous prophecy claims the quake will measure 9.8 on the Richter Scale - two points higher than the devastating Nepal earthquake last month.

The video made by Ditrianum Media, which now has more than 720,000 views, is narrated by a man from the Netherlands called Frank who claims to have warned of the Nepal earthquake five days before it struck.

It includes a 3D moving map of the solar system showing the alignment of the planets on May 28, claiming it will disrupt geological processes on Earth.

Link
it's ok SSI
of all the linguistics I've learned here
I seem to understand
the language of silence best
Quoting 175. Patrap:


It has crossed my mind today esp, but no.

I dont want to impart a implied dread during a relief time for many.

People catch on to what's new and usually can come to their own conclusions,

The posts the last 48 tell a lot though,

Rain Rates, constant thunder, long lightning.

Storms have more oomph is the chatter.

And the year hasn't even hit June 1 yet,

Buckle up.



Watch a major will hit the US during a Strong El-Nino year this Summer. Really worried about what could all close to home spinners which could come up quick.

Taking it back a few. My post got my head spinning.

Link
Quoting 181. Patrap:


India's Deadly Heatwave Melting Roads

May 27, 2015, 3:08 PM ET

By SUSANNA KIM

A devastating heatwave has left more than 1,100 people dead over the past month in India, and photos also show the toll on the country's infrastructure.

Temperatures in the southeastern states of Andhra Pradesh and Telengana have reached 113 degrees in the past two days, The Associated Press reported. More than 1,100 people have reportedly died in the past month from heat-related causes in those two states, with at least 852 dead in Andhra Pradesh.

About 1,100 People Dead as Summer Temperatures Soar in India
Flash Floods Leave Apocalyptic Scenes Across Texas

A drought in much of India, along with a busy typhoon season, could spell trouble for a billion people in Asia this summer, according to AccuWeather. Public announcements urge people to drink water and stay indoors during the hottest hours of the day, the AP reported.

El Niño, a warm phase of the fluctuation of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is likely leading to an above-average number of typhoons and super-typhoons, AccuWeather reports. But El Niño may displace the already-delayed monsoon, leading to below-normal rainfall in India.

Weather officials blamed northwesterly dry and hot winds from the desert state of Rajasthan for the extreme heat.




Kenny Strawn‏@strawn_04

Kenny Strawn retweeted Abraham Levy
Here's #ElNiño's dry side: In New Delhi, it was hot enough today to melt asphalt. Sad, but that's just how it works…
To answer a wundermail here is a blog contest I entered and won 4 years ago. The prize package contained a wunderground T-shirt, a cube puzzle, reusable shopping bags and other stuff. Mailed to my address in Baltimore.
i would keep a eye on 92E track TX dos not need any more rain
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



The Future of Winter Orographic Cloud Seeding: A View from Scientists and Stakeholders

Polar-lower latitude linkages and their role in weather and climate prediction

*** A MULTI-DISCIPLINARY PERSPECTIVE ON CLIMATE MODEL EVALUATION FOR ANTARCTICA

*** A Scientist who Modeled Texas's Blanco River in 2007 Probes for Lessons After the Deadly Flash Flood

!!! Inquiry: Design of a Sustainable Financial System

*** Lethal wounds on skull may indicate 430,000 year-old murder



!!! New human ancestor species from Ethiopia lived alongside Lucy's species



!!! Experiment confirms quantum theory weirdness

* Invisible helpers of the sea: Marine bacteria boost growth of tiny ocean algae



* Glacier changes at the top of the world

* Researchers solve another piece of the puzzle how forests can effect our climate

*** Evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet

*** Global climate on verge of multi decadal change

* Tiny parasite may contribute to declines in honey bee colonies by infecting larvae

Shock Collision Inside Black Hole Jet



*** American energy use up slightly, carbon emissions almost unchanged (more detailed and precise than earlier reports this year)

* Solid-state photonics goes extreme ultraviolet



* Canada wildfires rage on, intensify near oil sands sites

* Norway's $900 billion sovereign fund told to reduce coal assets

Can US meet its climate goals? New study says ‘Yes’

*** This is climate skeptics' latest argument about melting polar ice — and why it's wrong

*** Nature's Waste Management Crews

ExxonMobil CEO mocks renewable energy in shareholder speech

* Hawaii Governor: Massive Mauna Kea Telescope Can Go Ahead

Texas eased pollution rules on coal plants, environmentalists say
193. etxwx
Local storm damage via KJAS.com:
Large marina breaks loose at Rayburn during Wednesday morning storm
Posted: Wednesday, May 27, 2015 1:39 pm by Steve W Stewart
A large marina, which holds 128 boats, tore loose from its mooring and drifted several hundred yards into a cove at Lake Sam Rayburn. It happened while the latest severe thunderstorm was moving across the area early Wednesday morning.

The Sam Rayburn Lake Resort Marina, which is located in the cove opposite of Lakeshore Drive, was shoved by wind and waves farther south into the cove, and workers have tied it to trees in an effort to keep it from moving any further.

The storm was so powerful, 50 foot tall metal pylons, which went 6 feet into the lake bed, were pulled out of the earth. Some were either dragged along by the marina, while some were left in place and bent over, and others slipped through the sleeve and are assumed to be at the bottom of the lake.

(article continues at link above)

Additional problems along the Neches River system:
Sam Rayburn Reservoir high and rising
Tyler County calls for voluntary evacuation along Neches River, Dam B releasing water

I wonder how big the waves were on Lake Sam Rayburn, etxwx?

Quoting 174. CaneFreeCR:

Pat, you haven't posted that picture of the Hydra for a while -- seems like the Forcings are getting pretty busy with the strike-back all around the world. Might be sump'n to it? Texas has been a pretty big source of forcings -- it seems only appropriate some of the strike-back is happening there.
Wait a minuet. Let's dance here. What do you mean by that?
Are you saying people in TX deserved to die and suffer in the recent floods and severe weather because of some sort of attitude you perceive Texan wu bloggers or Texans in general have toward global warming? Or is it that you see fossil fuel industry as a staple in the Texas economy?
Or something else?
Quoting 188. StormTrackerScott:



Watch a major will hit the US during a Strong El-Nino year this Summer. Really worried about what could all close to home spinners which could come up quick.

Taking it back a few. My post got my head spinning.

Link

Certainly overdue for one.
197. etxwx
Quoting 194. BaltimoreBrian:

I wonder how big the waves were on Lake Sam Rayburn, etxwx?

I haven't been able to find additional info on that, I'm guessing the wind had a "kite" effect on it too. Still, must have been some pretty impressive wind and water to have moved it like that.
Thankfully, it was not as bad as this though:
MAY 17, 1986 DERECHO "The Texas Boaters' Derecho"
I'm reading the Boaters' Derecho now. Thanks etxwx!
Quoting 186. yoboi:

Well he was wrong with Arctic ice being gone during 2014....Guess we will see if this doomsday prediction for tomorrow will happen....

The clip which first appeared on YouTube and has been shared across social media sites claims there will be a monstrous earthquake in Los Angeles and San Francisco on Thursday at about 4pm local time.

The disastrous prophecy claims the quake will measure 9.8 on the Richter Scale - two points higher than the devastating Nepal earthquake last month.

The video made by Ditrianum Media, which now has more than 720,000 views, is narrated by a man from the Netherlands called Frank who claims to have warned of the Nepal earthquake five days before it struck.

It includes a 3D moving map of the solar system showing the alignment of the planets on May 28, claiming it will disrupt geological processes on Earth.

Link

The fact that the movie "San Andreas," about a devastating earthquake in California, opens the next day couldn't possibly have any bearing on this, could it? Naaahhh...
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12
@ToddKimberlain It would be historic-- you just don't get 2-3 SD across the entire Central and eastern Pac (but it is day 13 :)]

Todd Kimberlain ‏@ToddKimberlain
@EricBlake12 W 30-35 kt anomalies? Geez. Reversal of the trades. Epac becomes one big cyclonic gyre.
201. etxwx
Quoting 198. BaltimoreBrian:

I'm reading the Boaters' Derecho now. Thanks etxwx!

You're welcome! The description of the advancing derecho is pretty chilling and it's interesting that it was directly witnessed by a meteorolgist. Quote: "Storm Prediction Center meteorologist Richard (Rich) Thompson experienced this event during a summer break from the University of Oklahoma. Rich, a native of Houston, had gone on a weekend camping and boating trip with several friends."
The Atlantic looks ready for development.
Quoting 200. Gearsts:

Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12
@ToddKimberlain It would be historic-- you just don't get 2-3 SD across the entire Central and eastern Pac (but it is day 13 :)]

Todd Kimberlain %u200F@ToddKimberlain
@EricBlake12 W 30-35 kt anomalies? Geez. Reversal of the trades. Epac becomes one big cyclonic gyre.

Will be interesting to see what effect the westerly winds have on the EPac storm(s).
6 people killed on the lakes in the 1986 Texas Boaters' derecho. Very sad.
205. vis0

Quoting 59. sar2401:

Here's a link that actually works. That is truly one of the most ridiculous concepts I've ever seen. You're supposed to tow that thing on tiny wheels? Have they even tried to get that road licensed in the US yet? Once you're on your tiny home location, how do you secure it to the ground? You'd better have a plan, because that egg shape is perfect to get airborne. Looking at the specs, I'd guess it's going to be somewhere around $150,000 with the solar panels, battery bank, and wind generator - which, BTW, won't comply with zoning laws in many places. Or, you could buy a Safari Trek like mine for less than $15,000. It already has everything that the Slovakian egg has except for the windmill, but includes little things you might want like A/C, a generator, a real kitchen, a real bathroom, TV, Stereo/CD player, and a real living room. It has 208 sq. ft. of living space and you can actually drive it where you want on regular size wheels. Slap on $10,000 for extra solar panels, solar hot water heater, macerating toilet, and a big battery bank. You can live off the grid anywhere until you need to refill the propane tank, which happens about once a month in summer. Or, you could buy a Slovakian egg...
BUT can you stands yours (Sofa ...Safari Trek) on its edge during spring equinox** : - P

**don't forget to add salt around the egg so the egg has a better chance of standing on its point than somehow gravity being perfectly aligned by how /where the sun do shine.  ...then during the atumnal equinox you can cook an egg equally (uh hopefully not the same egg..peeewww)
206. vis0
Quoting 86. sar2401:

The SPC doesn't show a tornado report from Florida yesterday. It's an interesting photo but I don't think I can make a judgement about that being a tornado from that one photo. Florida only had a couple of scattered high wind reports with the usual tress and wires down but no hail reports. Either those reports are not being forwarded to the SPC or you guys are seeing things that don't get reported to the local NWS office.
someone on the blog "last night?" i thought reported there was hail in an area of Florida, might be mistaken i'm typing this to remind myself to chk back and post HERE IN THIS CMMNT, if i find that cmmnt.

NOT TODAY FROM YESTERDAY
TECHNICALLY it was the 26th (but still last night)

JeffMasters_entryn2997pg7
317. LargoFl
11:36 PM GMT on May 26, 2015
3

Jedkins you online?..pea sized hail and bad wind gusts and flood warnings out with this storm........


LATER REPLY::

376. StormTrackerScott
2:10 AM GMT on May 27, 2015
5

Close to 6" of rain now near Tampa and its still coming down. Houston part 2?

Just incredible rainfall rates ongoing across the Tampa area. Folks turn around don't drown as flooding is becoming an issue.

AND WHEN I BEGAN TO PAY ATTN::

392. CosmicEvents
2:37 AM GMT on May 27, 2015

Thank goodness it's winding down now and Houston Part 2 was avoided. The local NWS doesn't seem overly concerned, but from what I understand, 3 nudist colonies near Lutz did put out a hail alert!
Quoting 195. Barefootontherocks:


Wait a minuet. Let's dance here. What do you mean by that?
Are you saying people in TX deserved to die and suffer in the recent floods and severe weather because of some sort of attitude you perceive Texan wu bloggers or Texans in general have toward global warming? Or is it that you see fossil fuel industry as a staple in the Texas economy?
Or something else?
174. CaneFreeCR,
'Nite, Ms/r X.........I'll check in sometime tomorrow to see if you answered this question, though my gut tells me you won't.  Have a nice night just the same.
Quoting 206. vis0:


someone on the blog "last night?" i thought reported there was hail in an area of Florida, might be mistaken i'm typing this to remind myself to chk back and post HERE IN THIS CMMNT, if i find that cmmnt.

.....
.
.
209. etxwx
Climate Change, a Factor in Texas Floods, Largely Ignored
by Neena Satija and Jim Malewitz - Texas Tribune - May 27, 2015
"Climate change is taking a toll on Texas, and the devastating floods that have killed at least 15 people and left 12 others missing across the state are some of the best evidence yet of that phenomenon, state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said in an interview Wednesday.

"We have observed an increase of heavy rain events, at least in the South-Central United States, including Texas," said Nielsen-Gammon, who was appointed by former Gov. George W. Bush in 2000. "And it's consistent with what we would expect from climate change."

(continued here)
Will have a fresh blog out tomorrow morning...that's if I can wake up before noon, me being a teenager and all. ;)

Quoting 209. etxwx:
Climate Change, a Factor in Texas Floods, Largely Ignored
by Neena Satija and Jim Malewitz - Texas Tribune - May 27, 2015
"Climate change is taking a toll on Texas, and the devastating floods that have killed at least 15 people and left 12 others missing across the state are some of the best evidence yet of that phenomenon, state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon said in an interview Wednesday.

"We have observed an increase of heavy rain events, at least in the South-Central United States, including Texas," said Nielsen-Gammon, who was appointed by former Gov. George W. Bush in 2000. "And it's consistent with what we would expect from climate change."

(continued here)
It seems to me that, in an area known as "flash flood alley", that we really don't need to come up with labels to do good emergency planning. Regardless of the effects of climate change, planning should always include outlier events from the biggest known events from the past. The most important indicators are how many new roofs are in the flood plain and how much new asphalt. Those two factors are directly related to increases in flash flooding. Combine that with projections of worst case ground saturation and rainfall rates and you have what you need to plan for flood response. It's not neccessary to get into a fight about restricting new housing or mandating a certain amount of non-paved areas in development. You can still plan as if nothing will change and the growth rate of housing and paving will continue as it has in the past. It would be nice if Texas officials, and officials everywhere, would deal with the root causes of the issues, but they aren't going to do so. As an emergency planner, solving poltical problems is not part of the mandate. It's things like dam safety, evacuation routes, and rescue resources. Let politicians deal with politics while emergency planners deal with reality on the ground.
Quoting 210. Astrometeor:
Will have a fresh blog out tomorrow morning...that's if I can wake up before noon, me being a teenager and all. ;)

Big difference between the filtered an unfiltered reports today - 186 reports filtered compared to 243 unfilterd. The filtered reports remove what the SPC thinks are duplicates. It seems some NWS offices overreport damage and hail while offices like Melbourne (FL) seem to underreport. Some offices also report everything found on social media while others rarely use those reports directly. I wonder what the standard is for reporting?

BTW, at least us old people are usually out of bed by 1100 or so, ya lazy kid. :-)
213. 882MB
I think 92E will be Tropical Depression One, at 2am or 5am EDT. Its satellite representation can not look any better. This is the most healthiest its looked since it was first declared an invest. Looks like it already has all it needs to be classified.





Muh oh. I just had a small shower go through, bringing my daily total up to 0.61". The problem is this brings my monthly total up to 6.66". My fiance, like most Southerners, is a little superstitious, and thinks this is a bad sign about something; for what, I don't know. Regardless, don't say I didn't warn you. :-)
Quoting 213. 882MB:
I think 92E will be Tropical Depression One, at 2am or 5am EDT. Its satellite representation can not look any better. This is the most healthiest its looked since it was first declared an invest. Looks like it already has all it needs to be classified.





Considering the NHC expects this to be classified as a tropical depression early this morning, that seems like a pretty good bet. There's also another little area of disturbed weather trailing along behind 92E. Depending on the path 92E takes, that may have a chance of development as well. Looks like the start of what should be an active year in the eastern Pacific.
Quoting 214. sar2401:

Muh oh. I just had a small shower go through, bringing my daily total up to 0.61". The problem is this brings my monthly total up to 6.66". My fiance, like most Southerners, is a little superstitious, and thinks this is a bad sign about something; for what, I don't know. Regardless, don't say I didn't warn you. :-)


Alright, I'll send you the bill for whatever happens to me.
Wow, it's been three years since the heat wave that was 2012...from this point through most of the summer records were broken often. July 4th was over 100 degrees, that was err fun.

Quoting 206. vis0:
someone on the blog "last night?" i thought reported there was hail in an area of Florida, might be mistaken i'm typing this to remind myself to chk back and post HERE IN THIS CMMNT, if i find that cmmnt.

NOT TODAY FROM YESTERDAY
TECHNICALLY it was the 26th (but still last night)

JeffMasters_entryn2997pg7
317. LargoFl
11:36 PM GMT on May 26, 2015
3

Jedkins you online?..pea sized hail and bad wind gusts and flood warnings out with this storm........


LATER REPLY::

376. StormTrackerScott
2:10 AM GMT on May 27, 2015
5

Close to 6" of rain now near Tampa and its still coming down. Houston part 2?

Just incredible rainfall rates ongoing across the Tampa area. Folks turn around don't drown as flooding is becoming an issue.

AND WHEN I BEGAN TO PAY ATTN::

392. CosmicEvents
2:37 AM GMT on May 27, 2015

Thank goodness it's winding down now and Houston Part 2 was avoided. The local NWS doesn't seem overly concerned, but from what I understand, 3 nudist colonies near Lutz did put out a hail alert!
The danger to those nudist colonies also caught my eye. Hail could be a big problem for certain unprotected areas. :-)

There's a difference between blog designated severe thunderstorms and NWS designated severe thunderstorms. NWS criteria is radar indicated or spotter reports of hail of one inch or greater diameter or winds of 58 mph or higher. That's it. It doesn't include lightning, no matter how frequent or vivid, heavy rainfall, no matter how heavy, or flash flooding, no matter how bad. Blog designated severe thunderstorms include things like really loud thunder, scary lightning, flooded driveways, wind causing small twigs to break off, rainfall so bad you can't see across the street, or almost any thunderstorm occurring in or around Orlando. Winds of 55 mph to 63 mph are Force 10 on the Beaufort scale, and the land description includes "Considerable structural damage occurs, especially on roofs. Small trees may be blown over and uprooted". Winds that high are really pretty rare on land, and overestimation of wind speed is very common on land. That's why we have about 10 blog designated severe thunderstorms compared to about one report of an NWS designated severe thunderstorm.
Quoting 216. Astrometeor:


Alright, I'll send you the bill for whatever happens to me.
No, you have to send it my fiance. She's in charge of all superstitious results. I'm just in sales here - she's in production. :-)
Quoting 219. sar2401:

No, you have to send it my fiance. She's in charge of all superstitious results. I'm just in sales here - she's in production. :-)


LOL! That's funny sar.

Night all.
Quoting 217. Astrometeor:
Wow, it's been three years since the heat wave that was 2012...from this point through most of the summer records were broken often. July 4th was over 100 degrees, that was err fun.

Yes, I remember 2012. Thankfully, I was living in motorhome then, with no lawn to worry about and only 208 square feet to air condition. I do remember starting to carry a handkerchief, not for my nose, but to use for grabbing anything metal outside so I wouldn't get burned. What a contrast to this year. It has rained for six days in a row now. Even though the highs have been over 90 each of those days, it has been 70 or below by 5:00 pm. Much more pleasant.
Quoting 220. Astrometeor:


LOL! That's funny sar.

Night all.
GN, Astro. Get out of bed before noon tomorrow and get to work on your blog!
Quoting 96. Neapolitan:

Unfortunately, that image appears to be a fake. Too bad; it would be great to see something like that. Oh, well...


My County had a tornado last summer without any notification, appeared out of nowhere, damaged over 100 homes and businesses, not injures. EF1
I am from New Orleans and I am 79 years old so I have seen a lot of hurricanes. I have to second what was said about like hurricane seasons. Just because there are only a few hurricanes does not mean that one of them cannot affect a particular area catastrophically. You have only to look besides Katrina, which none of us will forget, the first letter of our next three hurricanes are Andrew, Betsy and Camille. You don't need a dozen hurricanes to have a bad year. Do not let your guard down. Let's hope that the climate scientists are right and that were going into a relatively quiet period.
We just might get our second named system trying to form in the SE Gulf and moving over FL mid next week.

Ok as of the 00Z model runs more models are joining the NW Carib/GOM/FL development

Now
GFS (continues to show system coming out of NW Carib into GOM then across FL)
CMC/GEM continues to show system coming out of NW Carib cross Cuba and into NW Bahamas/S FL area)
ensemble (strongly continues to back up the models of system)
NAVGEM (shows weakly in wind barbs and mslp and vorts)
Euro (shows it weak but stronger than NAVGEM and develops low later that all the other models in camp)

More of the models starting to show less and less of the ULL and Sfc trof feature in the W Atlantic and agreement with the models that the ULL will move off N then NE the Sfc Trof just may be able to create a weak Sfc low but eventually both dissipates after ULL moves off
With all these low pressures moving into TX from the west, wouldn't that make the western gulf a hot spot for tropical systems to go this year?
229. vis0

Quoting 192. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



The Future of Winter Orographic Cloud Seeding: A View from Scientists and Stakeholders

Polar-lower latitude linkages and their role in weather and climate prediction

*** A MULTI-DISCIPLINARY PERSPECTIVE ON CLIMATE MODEL EVALUATION FOR ANTARCTICA

*** A Scientist who Modeled Texas's Blanco River in 2007 Probes for Lessons After the Deadly Flash Flood

!!! Inquiry: Design of a Sustainable Financial System

*** Lethal wounds on skull may indicate 430,000 year-old murder



!!! New human ancestor species from Ethiopia lived alongside Lucy's species



!!! Experiment confirms quantum theory weirdness

* Invisible helpers of the sea: Marine bacteria boost growth of tiny ocean algae



* Glacier changes at the top of the world

* Researchers solve another piece of the puzzle how forests can effect our climate

*** Evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet

*** Global climate on verge of multi decadal change

* Tiny parasite may contribute to declines in honey bee colonies by infecting larvae

Shock Collision Inside Black Hole Jet



*** American energy use up slightly, carbon emissions almost unchanged (more detailed and precise than earlier reports this year)

* Solid-state photonics goes extreme ultraviolet



* Canada wildfires rage on, intensify near oil sands sites

* Norway's $900 billion sovereign fund told to reduce coal assets

Can US meet its climate goals? New study says ‘Yes’

*** This is climate skeptics' latest argument about melting polar ice — and why it's wrong

*** Nature's Waste Management Crews

ExxonMobil CEO mocks renewable energy in shareholder speech

* Hawaii Governor: Massive Mauna Kea Telescope Can Go Ahead

Texas eased pollution rules on coal plants, environmentalists say
a comment reply on a subject mentioned in BaltBrains news
(!!! Experiment confirms quantum theory weirdness)  & sar2401's "wall of words" cmmnt #153 ON THIS DR. MASTERS blog  as to harrp, i have created on my blog (pg2 THERE) as cmmnt #98 [don't forget to grab the container of salt before you read that comment]...is it me or is Labonbon not posted being that there is active wx in her region of the woods.
230. vis0

Quoting 214. sar2401:

Muh oh. I just had a small shower go through, bringing my daily total up to 0.61". The problem is this brings my monthly total up to 6.66". My fiance, like most Southerners, is a little superstitious, and thinks this is a bad sign about something; for what, I don't know. Regardless, don't say I didn't warn you. :-)
As long as Nola Reaux (name?) doesn't have her litter on june 6 @6 (AM of PM) all is okay. ...quick sar2401 buy some garlic bread (garlic too expensive)
231. vis0
lets hope its not a tragic day when the countdown reaches 0, .......4...3... 2 1
Good morning hello from Germany where central parts (where I live) are increasingly badly in need of rain while more than enough had been delivered to the Alps in the south with lots of fresh snow on the tops of the mountains. Farmers in my region are very worried about their harvest but forecast still doesn't have much rain in the offing (if any at all).


Hydrological balance for Germany this spring (March to May). Source.

But, of course, other countries are way more in trouble:

Flattened by erratic rain, Pakistani farmers ditch crop farming
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Wed, 27 May 2015 15:15 GMT

Leave cancelled for India's doctors as heat wave kills 1,300
Source: Reuters - Thu, 28 May 2015 05:01 GMT

Zimbabweans go hungry as drought hammers southern Africa
Source: Reuters - Tue, 26 May 2015 06:00 GMT

Scorched earth: at the epicentre of the Queensland drought, a family sells the last of their cattle
The spectre of a fourth dry summer is looming in outback towns such as Longreach. Drastic times mean drastic action for the region's hard-hit farmers
The Guardian (Australia), Wednesday 27 May 2015 02.18 BST

I've been watching some of the exceptional weather in the South of the US (umm, best wishes to all affected!) but I don't have much time to post right now. Have a nice day everybody!
233. vis0

Quoting 218. sar2401:

The danger to those nudist colonies also caught my eye. Hail could be a big problem for certain unprotected areas. :-)

There's a difference between blog designated severe thunderstorms and NWS designated severe thunderstorms. NWS criteria is radar indicated or spotter reports of hail of one inch or greater diameter or winds of 58 mph or higher. That's it. It doesn't include lightning, no matter how frequent or vivid, heavy rainfall, no matter how heavy, or flash flooding, no matter how bad. Blog designated severe thunderstorms include things like really loud thunder, scary lightning, flooded driveways, wind causing small twigs to break off, rainfall so bad you can't see across the street, or almost any thunderstorm occurring in or around Orlando. Winds of 55 mph to 63 mph are Force 10 on the Beaufort scale, and the land description includes "Considerable structural damage occurs, especially on roofs. Small trees may be blown over and uprooted". Winds that high are really pretty rare on land, and overestimation of wind speed is very common on land. That's why we have about 10 blog designated severe thunderstorms compared to about one report of an NWS designated severe thunderstorm.

you forgot how fast the dog hides as a blogger criteria.  Though that marina moved by the quick storm has to be investigated as was the storm that strong or badly built marina (cmmnt #193 of this blobytes pg4) or a combo
Quoting 224. stup3715:

I am from New Orleans and I am 79 years old so I have seen a lot of hurricanes. I have to second what was said about like hurricane seasons. Just because there are only a few hurricanes does not mean that one of them cannot affect a particular area catastrophically. You have only to look besides Katrina, which none of us will forget, the first letter of our next three hurricanes are Andrew, Betsy and Camille. You don't need a dozen hurricanes to have a bad year. Do not let your guard down. Let's hope that the climate scientists are right and that were going into a relatively quiet period.
yes it only takes one to change your whole life..prepare as always in this coming hurricane season
Quoting 236. LargoFl:




The Euro is still not latching on to this, which makes me think it's the GFS showing yet another ghost storm. If you remember, last season the GFS was total garbage, showing storm after storm in the Gulf. Also, in the 6Z run the GFS shows the low a little further east. The track of the low is going to change a million times.

The NWS doesn't seem to be buying this low just yet. Will be interesting to see what happens.
for some its the science for my character its the game. numbers wise these early seasoners have a big impact on total numbers more so than ACE. that could change if we get a western gulf system middle June. get one in there that could add up some ACE
Quoting 237. tampabaymatt:



The Euro is still not latching on to this, which makes me think it's the GFS showing yet another ghost storm. If you remember, last season the GFS was total garbage, showing storm after storm in the Gulf. Also, in the 6Z run the GFS shows the low a little further east. The track of the low is going to change a million times.

The NWS doesn't seem to be buying this low just yet. Will be interesting to see what happens.


Euro has latched on to this it's clearly visible in the Vort and wind barbs it's just that Euro keeps it weak or elongated well atleast until it nears FL coast

Read earlier comment by me I've listed all models that show this system in one form or another
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

.LONG TERM...

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES OR THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CAT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MAY BE NEEDED TO BE RAISE
MORE IN LATER FORECAST IF THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS WEATHER PATTERN.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

Deep convection has become increasingly consolidated and organized
in association with an area of low pressure located well to the
southwest of the coast of Mexico. Enough convective banding has
formed to yield Dvorak estimates of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and
T1.5/25 kt from SAB, and a 0459 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed maximum
winds near 30 kt. The ASCAT data also showed that a center of
circulation appeared sufficiently well defined, allowing the
designation of the low as a 30-kt tropical depression at this time.

The depression lies to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends
from central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific, and
its initial motion is 295/13 kt. Global model fields show that the
ridge should remain firmly in place, especially to the northwest of
the depression, during the next several days. This should force the
cyclone to slow down considerably and move north-northwestward from
days 2 through 5. There is good agreement among the track models
during the first 3 days of the forecast. By days 4 and 5, however,
there is more uncertainty with the GFDL and HWRF models showing a
northward motion while the GFS and ECMWF show a northwestward
motion. The NHC track forecast currently lies closest to the GFS
model and the TVCE multi-model consensus. Regardless of the exact
track, the cyclone is expected to stay well to the southwest of
Mexico during the entire forecast period.

Relatively low shear and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures
should support intensification during the next 3 days or so. Of the
intensity guidance, the SHIPS model is the most aggressive, making
the cyclone a hurricane by 36 hours with a peak intensity near 90 kt
in 2-3 days. The official intensity forecast isn't quite that
aggressive, but it does lie slightly above the ICON intensity
consensus. Rapid intensification isn't out of the question, and in
fact the RI guidance suggests that it may be likely during the next
24 hours. In light of that, some upward adjustment to the official
forecast may be needed in subsequent advisories. Weakening should
begin by day 4 once the cyclone reaches colder water.

Note that beginning this year, Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories,
Discussions, and Updates for the eastern North Pacific will now use
different time zones depending on the cyclone's current location, as
follows:

Central Time: east of 106.0W
Mountain Time: 106.0W to 114.9W
Pacific Time: 115.0W westward

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 11.0N 110.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 11.7N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 12.6N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 13.4N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 14.2N 114.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

ok 06Z GFS
shows system weaker and develops a slightly bit later and slightly further N than last run also ends up splitting the system into two separate lows one on either side of FL both end up as developing systems in the W Atlantic E of FL coast

now this run being different from the last few days run could be a fluke we will have to wait and see what 12Z shows to determine this

anyway as I stated earlier but didn't go through because this new site can't do crap on the Ipads Safari browser

"As expected we now have TD1-E which is expected to become a 90MPH hurricane

and as expected a weak low 1015mb formed with out Sfc trof/ULL feature and 1015mb low expected to dissipate shortly"

Quoting 225. StormTrackerScott:

We just might get our second named system trying to form in the SE Gulf and moving over FL mid next week.




Scott I am getting a feeling as well that by mid to late week looking at NCEP models and quantative precipitation models that a tropical system will affect us next week. I hope wind shear is low, because waters do support development. Scott another thing. If waters in the GOM and NW Caribbean were as warm as the waters off the Mexican coast on the Pacific side Forecasters will be blowing the Emergency horn for the next week
wunderkidcayman nice post with NCEP models showing possible tropical system affecting Florida next week good work
Quoting 227. wunderkidcayman:



Quoting 246. WeatherConvoy:

wunderkidcayman nice post with NCEP models showing possible tropical system affecting Florida next week good work


yep Affecting Cayman Cuba and Florida
standard early season (June) storm
06Z ensembles still show system similar to the 00Z run and runs before not like GFS 06Z run so it could be that 06Z GFS was a fluke
249. yoboi
Why not start in 1975?? starting in 1979 would be like starting 1997/98 with temps....

Quoting 237. tampabaymatt:



The Euro is still not latching on to this, which makes me think it's the GFS showing yet another ghost storm. If you remember, last season the GFS was total garbage, showing storm after storm in the Gulf. Also, in the 6Z run the GFS shows the low a little further east. The track of the low is going to change a million times.

The NWS doesn't seem to be buying this low just yet. Will be interesting to see what happens.


Euro is latching onto this as well its just weaker and stays put over FL. Euro showing near 8" of rain for SE FL. Going to get interesting next week Matt as all the models show something whether is weak or stronger.
Although not as strong as a reflection the GFS ENS still show a weak system coming up from the SE Gulf. Either way there is a lot of rain coming to FL. Very similar situation that happened in Texas during May could happen across FL in June as the whole pattern is shifting east now.


Quoting 248. wunderkidcayman:

06Z ensembles still show system similar to the 00Z run and runs before not like GFS 06Z run so it could be that 06Z GFS was a fluke

Totally agree with you. I'm awaiting TSR May 27th update. It always seems to be a day late. Am I the only one who thinks this, but does this possible Bill origin remind you of Andrea in 2013. By the way, the GFS 06z is kind of harder to understand. Is it two tropical storms with that run??? I would have to agree more with the ensembles and the GFS 00z rjn, as it has been more consistent.
Quoting 251. StormTrackerScott:



Euro is latching onto this as well its just weaker and stays put over FL. Euro showing near 8" of rain for SE FL. Going to get interesting next week Matt as all the models show something whether is weak or stronger.


wow I think this is the first time or atleast the first time in a long while we both agree on something

Quoting 239. wunderkidcayman:



Euro has latched on to this it's clearly visible in the Vort and wind barbs it's just that Euro keeps it weak or elongated well atleast until it nears FL coast ... ... ...
Could see 1.2C or 1.3C on next weeks CPC update for Nino 3.4 as the 1.5C anomalies are beginning to spread out across this region. Also notice all the westerly wind anomalies.

The latest run of NASA's GEOS-5 shows the low east of the Bahamas hanging out in that area & closing off beginning to middle of next week. Moves it off as a Subtropical Storm toward the Carolinas by the end of the run, while a different trough hangs out over FL.. This is the first run of GEOS-5 that is has developed that storm.

Folks JB just said in his daily video basically what I have been saying the last 2 days and that is all the heavy rains that have been plaguing Texas are going to shift east to FL. So folks in FL get ready ready as we are in for a massive amount of rain the next few weeks. Very possible that many areas could see their normal rainfall for June next week alone.

Quoting 253. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Totally agree with you. I'm awaiting TSR May 27th update. It always seems to be a day late. Am I the only one who thinks this, but does this possible Bill origin remind you of Andrea in 2013. By the way, the GFS 06z is kind of harder to understand. Is it two tropical storms with that run??? I would have to agree more with the ensembles and the GFS 00z rjn, as it has been more consistent.


sorta
looking closely to how this whole evolution of this system is,
the tropical wave shortly to be entering the E Caribbean moves into W Caribbean and merges with a broad monsoonal low in SW Carib. the low consolidates while moves N towards N or NE of Honduras. the low continues to develop as it moves anywhere from Yucatan Channel to Cayman Islands to N Central Cuba, then either making it to SE GOM, Florida straits or NW Bahamas, eventually this will make its way onto, near, or over Florida.

with the 06Z run its one system that splits into two one on each side of Fl eventually both move E of Fl
anyway as I said it may be that 06Z run is a fluke
Quoting 256. Skyepony:

The latest run of NASA's GEOS-5 shows the low east of the Bahamas hanging out in that area & closing off beginning to middle of next week. Moves it off as a Subtropical Storm toward the Carolinas by the end of the run, while a different trough hangs out over FL.. This is the first run of GEOS-5 that is has developed that storm.




JB's video this morning is interesting as he states the current pattern that has been in place across Texas is now shifting to FL exactly what I have been saying. Us across Eastern FL that have been dry the last month will make up for lost time next week.
the upper level low northeast of the bahamas is working towards the surface. there is strong vorticity at the 850mb, 700mb, 500mb and the 200mb levels. something to keep an eye on.
Quoting 256. Skyepony:

The latest run of NASA's GEOS-5 shows the low east of the Bahamas hanging out in that area & closing off beginning to middle of next week. Moves it off as a Subtropical Storm toward the Carolinas by the end of the run, while a different trough hangs out over FL.. This is the first run of GEOS-5 that is has developed that storm.




nah
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
328 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND...
...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
SOME AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS...

TUE-THU...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS DEVELOPING INTO MID WEEK
AS A MID LVL TROUGH DROPS SLOWLY SE TWD THE NRN GULF COAST. FLOW
AROUND THE TROUGH WILL DRAW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE NWD INTO MID WEEK
TOWARD E CENTRAL FL. 00Z GFS IS CONTINUING ITS PATTERN OF RECENT
DAYS AND SPINS UP A SFC LOW NEAR THE FL PENINSULA FOR MID WEEK AND
LIFTS IT NWD. GFS MODEL TRENDS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN TO
GRADUALLY MOVE THE LOW TRACK WESTWARD AND KEEP E CENTRAL FL ON THE
WET SIDE OF THE LOW AS DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS OVER THE AREA WED-THU.
THE ECMWF IS NOT SHOWING MUCH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT BUT DOES ALSO
GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS INTO MID WEEK. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS TOWARD MID WEEK UP TO AROUND 50 PCT...THOUGH THIS MAY
CONSERVATIVE IF ANYTHING NEAR THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES.
Quoting 260. stoormfury:

the upper level low northeast of the bahamas is working towards the surface. there is strong vorticity at the 850mb, 700mb, 500mb and the 200mb levels. something to keep an eye on.


nah
it has a weak sfc low 1015mb which is dissipating
ULL expected to move N then NE
while Sfc trof expected to continue W-WNW eventually becoming defused and dissipated E of E central Bahamas by 96hrs

there might be a sight remnant of the sfc trof that gets sucked into the tropical wave shortly after
Sandstorm and Scorching Hot Weather Strike Egypt
Egptian Streets, May 27, 2015
With temperatures reaching a high of 45C (113F), residents of Cairo, Alexandria and other cities of Egypt have had to endure long days stuck at home with air-conditioners, drinking ice-cold juice on the streets and even swimming in public fountains to remain hydrated. ...

Record-breaking heat wave hits Israel
May 27, 2015 11:42am
(JTA) - A record-breaking heat wave in Israel has sparked forest fires, caused flight delays and prompted a sharp increase in reported cases of dehydration and fainting. Temperatures reached 102 degrees in Tel Aviv, 104 in Haifa and 98 in Jerusalem on Wednesday. ...


Current temps (Celsius) in Europe and Mediterranean area. (Source: wetteronline.de) Notice the high temperatures in Northern Russia! Way too warm.


Source.
List.
Quoting 264. barbamz:

Sandstorm and Scorching Hot Weather Strike Egypt
Egptian Streets, May 27, 2015
With temperatures reaching a high of 45°C (113F), residents of Cairo, Alexandria and other cities of Egypt have had to endure long days stuck at home with air-conditioners, drinking ice-cold juice on the streets and even swimming in public fountains to remain hydrated. ...

Record-breaking heat wave hits Israel
May 27, 2015 11:42am
(JTA) — A record-breaking heat wave in Israel has sparked forest fires, caused flight delays and prompted a sharp increase in reported cases of dehydration and fainting. Temperatures reached 102 degrees in Tel Aviv, 104 in Haifa and 98 in Jerusalem on Wednesday. ...


Current temps (Celsius) in Europe and Mediterranean area. (Source: wetteronline.de) Notice the high temperatures in Northern Russia! Way too warm.


117 in India. El-Nino in full effect now.
Quoting 178. Barefootontherocks:

Sometime in the few years before 1976, maybe in the late 1960s, UAF Geophysical Institute's Neil Davis and his buds created an artificial Aurora. I know that because he and his wife, Rosemarie, were neighbors on one of my favorite islands.

HAARP talk always reminds me of that successful Aurora experiment.


That's really not that hard to do. An aurora is just ionized gas. Any radio transmitter with enough focus and juice can create a small aurora. But that is far from the most interesting thing you can with a powerful radio transmitter. Back before they limited output from terrestrial radio stations, you could run some electrical appliances without being plugged in and have flourescent lights light up in your hands if you were close enough.
Good Morning. The E-Pac is on the move today.


Looking good and expected to reach tropical storm later this morning; already there IMHO:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 110.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E
was located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 110.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h), but a decrease in forward speed is expected to begin later
today. The depression should turn toward the northwest by tonight
and the north-northwest by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning and could
become a hurricane by late Friday.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Quoting 265. StormTrackerScott:



117 in India. El-Nino in full effect now.
Meanwhile, global warming is just getting underway--and you ain't seen nothing yet.
EP, 01, 2015052812, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1109W, 35, 1002, TS
Quoting 270. Neapolitan:

Meanwhile, but global warming is just getting underway--and we've seen nothing yet.


So hot in India its melting asphalt. Crazy!

Posted this tweet last night.

Kenny Strawn
‏@strawn_04 Kenny Strawn retweeted Abraham Levy
Here's #ElNiño's dry side: In New Delhi, it was hot enough today to melt asphalt. Sad, but that's just how it works…

Quoting 271. Tazmanian:

EP, 01, 2015052812, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1109W, 35, 1002, TS


First of many Taz.
Quoting 186. yoboi:

Well he was wrong with Arctic ice being gone during 2014....Guess we will see if this doomsday prediction for tomorrow will happen....


Who predicted the ice would be gone in 2014? I've never seen that claim in reviewed science. What I have seen is model ensemble members from around 2007 that showed if conditions like those in 2007 persisted then the arctic would be practically ice free in summer by 2014, but those were extreme outliers with very low probability of occurring. You would have had more of a chance to get two royal straight flushes dealt to you in a row playing poker.

There's a big difference "could" (a possibility) and "will" (a prediction).

For example, let's take this idiot end-of-the worlder predicting a monster earthquake hitting California. Could it happen? Sure. The San Andreas isn't geologically stable. And while no quake of that magnitude has ever originated from that part of the fault, we don't have in-situ measurements so we don't have perfect knowledge of all the factors that could go into a potential strong quake. But it would have nothing to do with "aligning planets".

Will it happen? Extremely unlikely. While we don't have perfect knowledge we know enough to figure out that the probability of a 9.8 from a strike slip fault that has no history of such large quakes to be practically zero.
You can begin to see the pattern break down on this image as trough now starts to develop in the Gulf. Texas will finally get a break from all this rain.



Now with NOAA's Hurricane Prediction it might give a brighter idea besides the 121 predictions on my list for those looking from the shadows.

Feel free to join my chart in these last 3 days it will be available for. Only 3 days left as we begin the hurricane season.

EDT: Current Prediction count stands at 122.
There WILL be a prize for a friend who nails this hurricane season entirely. You have my word.
Euro ENS is interesting because notice the strong ridge to the north with low pressures over the Gulf. Not out of the question something may try to form in the Eastern or Southeastern Gulf.

Quoting 249. yoboi:

Why not start in 1975?? starting in 1979 would be like starting 1997/98 with temps....




I always wonder why charts like yours always seem to "cherry" pick a particular time period (1975-1990). Then I look at charts that show the same data over the more complete data record (1870-present) and discover why:



It is because the messaging you are pushing is totally contradicted by the facts of the more complete data set.
Quoting 249. yoboi:

Why not start in 1975?? starting in 1979 would be like starting 1997/98 with temps....




You're being hypocritical. You're using data from before direct satellite measurements, which is something you've screamed about in the past when we brought up ice declines. You yourself have said that anything before the satellite record was "inaccurate and unreliable", which is incorrect but we humored you anyway.

Satellite monitoring of the arctic didn't begin until 1979, which is why most modern sea ice data use that as a starting point. Before that point we had to rely on Naval records, which are fairly accurate back to about 1950 but not as accurate as direct observation. Before then, the records get more sparse which leave a lot more room for potential error.

Regardless, if you actually did the statistical analysis beginning with your outlier in 1975 (assuming it is, I haven't dug into the pre-satellite data to see if this isn't yet another piece of deniar bunk) it doesn't affect the trend in ice decline in any significant way. It's one point out of 40.

If you're willing to include pre-satellite data, then why don't you go all the way back to 1950 and do a simple linear regression?
Making the general observation, based upon the postings as to weather issues in the US and around the world as well as more media coverage, that a strong El Nino is probably the best thing that has recently happened with regard to getting the general public to pay closer attention to climate change issues and the world-wide impacts. Unfortunately, many lives will be-have already been lost around the world in 2015 as a results of the combined effects of this El Nino coupled with the impacts of global warming but hopefully, this will push more people in the direction of putting more pressure on their elected officials and/or political and business leadership to deal with the issues rather than kick the can down the road.
So much for the global warming prediction of increasing intensity and frequency of tropical storms.
Quoting 281. Sandy82579:

So much for the global warming prediction of increasing intensity and frequency of tropical storms.


You are only focusing on the Atlantic Basin in an El Nino year................You need to take a closer look at the Pacific and Indian Basins.
Quoting 257. StormTrackerScott:

Folks JB just said in his daily video basically what I have been saying the last 2 days and that is all the heavy rains that have been plaguing Texas are going to shift east to FL. So folks in FL get ready ready as we are in for a massive amount of rain the next few weeks. Very possible that many areas could see their normal rainfall for June next week alone.




Great! No need to top off the pool this week!!
284. yoboi
Quoting 279. Xyrus2000:



You're being hypocritical. You're using data from before direct satellite measurements, which is something you've screamed about in the past when we brought up ice declines. You yourself have said that anything before the satellite record was "inaccurate and unreliable", which is incorrect but we humored you anyway.

Satellite monitoring of the arctic didn't begin until 1979, which is why most modern sea ice data use that as a starting point. Before that point we had to rely on Naval records, which are fairly accurate back to about 1950 but not as accurate as direct observation. Before then, the records get more sparse which leave a lot more room for potential error.

Regardless, if you actually did the statistical analysis beginning with your outlier in 1975 (assuming it is, I haven't dug into the pre-satellite data to see if this isn't yet another piece of deniar bunk) it doesn't affect the trend in ice decline in any significant way. It's one point out of 40.

If you're willing to include pre-satellite data, then why don't you go all the way back to 1950 and do a simple linear regression?



I always thought ESMR began in 1972....
Quoting 281. Sandy82579:

So much for the global warming prediction of increasing intensity and frequency of tropical storms.


A recent FSU study confirms the actual prediction of fewer but more powerful hurricanes in a warmer world: Link

While there is less agreement about the frequency of the weakest categories (Cat 2 and below), the frequency of the highest categories (Cat 3 and above) should increase as the globe warms.

Quoting 283. KDDFlorida:



Great! No need to top off the pool this week!!


Still may need to top it off as the rains may not appear for us until sometime next week.
Quoting 266. Xyrus2000:



That's really not that hard to do. An aurora is just ionized gas. Any radio transmitter with enough focus and juice can create a small aurora. But that is far from the most interesting thing you can with a powerful radio transmitter. Back before they limited output from terrestrial radio stations, you could run some electrical appliances without being plugged in and have flourescent lights light up in your hands if you were close enough.

Your ignorance is showing. You might want to look up (edit)... and add: Nevermind. You can figure out the rest of it for yourself!
Why do people constantly repost the same posts.......time after time......????? baffles me.....is it due to no one commenting?????
and even swimming in public fountains to remain hydrated....

not to make light of anything that happens in egypt but i thought thats what the fountains were for :)
Quoting 249. yoboi:

Why not start in 1975?? starting in 1979 would be like starting 1997/98 with temps....

It doesn't make any real difference.

Since I'm only using satellite NSIDC data, which begins in 1979, I'll show the trend beginning in 1984 (which had a low minimum) and compare it to the trend beginning in 1979. Ready? Here goes:


That is the value of using 30 year trends, whether in temperature or ice data.
Quoting 281. Sandy82579:

So much for the global warming prediction of increasing intensity and frequency of tropical storms.

No such prediction exists, nor has such a prediction existed.
Well on our way to a Strong El-Nino now as westerly wind anomalies continue to focus further and further east with time. Also the TAO has as I pointed out this AM 1.5C anomalies spreading across Nino 3.4 so expect an increase from 1.1C next Monday from the CPC.

Quoting 294. hydrus:




As I said earlier the pattern is changing. All the heavy rains in Texas the last month are going to now shift east and focus across FL starting sometime next week. Maybe a tropical element late next week so lots to watch going forward but good news is if anything forms it will stay weak due to high shear in the area.
CapeCodWeather.Net ‏@capecodweather 1h1 hour ago
@EricBlake12 thoughts on where this is going - ie big pic vs 97-98, 82-83 etc? similar?

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 54m54 minutes ago
@capecodweather I now think the odds are best for a strong El Nino, and one of those historic events is possible.

CapeCodWeather.Net ‏@capecodweather 43m43 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 expanse of anomalous surface and sub-surface warmth is very impressive. thanks.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...ANDRES BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2015 EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 111.3W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 111.3 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today. A turn
toward the northwest with an additional decrease in speed is
expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Andres is forecast to become a
hurricane late Friday or Friday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brow




is this year going too be the year where all most evere storm that fourms in the E PAC be comes a hurricane ?
Quoting 297. Tazmanian:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

...ANDRES BECOMES THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2015 EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 111.3W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Andres was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 111.3 West. Andres is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today. A turn
toward the northwest with an additional decrease in speed is
expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Andres is forecast to become a
hurricane late Friday or Friday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brow




is this year going too be the year where all most evere storm that fourms in the E PAC be comes a hurricane ?


Possibly. Could be one of the most active E-Pac seasons ever.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 110. Jedkins01:



Well sometimes tornadoes can pop-up between radar scans and spin down, although I don;t think this was a tornado as the NWS local storm page has no possible tornado reports, at least not yet. Unless it touched down over the middle of the woods, it looks more like scud or a strong updraft zone where sometimes a condensation feed can develop well below the cloud due to lower pressure in the same way that a tornado produces a condensation funnel due to lower pressure.

Also as far as the spotter issue, keep in mind that sea breeze severe thunderstorm activity is not one that can be forecast with an SPC outlook. That is, not an organized forecast event. Otherwise, spotters would have to be placed on activation all the time. That combined with the fact that we are used to strong thunderstorms in the summer in Florida, means it's likely for some severe weather to either not get reported, or end up getting reported late.


I agree with the tornadoes briefly popping up between radar scans. However, please correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't spotters activated anytime the radar shows evidence of possible severe weather, not just when severe weather is predicted? It would make the most sense to activate spotters when radar indicates that a storm has potential for producing severe weather.

Quoting 257. StormTrackerScott:

Folks JB just said in his daily video basically what I have been saying the last 2 days and that is all the heavy rains that have been plaguing Texas are going to shift east to FL. So folks in FL get ready ready as we are in for a massive amount of rain the next few weeks. Very possible that many areas could see their normal rainfall for June next week alone.




Thanks for the heads-up, Scott. The blackberries around here need a whole lot more water.

Quoting 276. MaxWeather:



Now with NOAA's Hurricane Prediction it might give a brighter idea besides the 121 predictions on my list for those looking from the shadows.

Feel free to join my chart in these last 3 days it will be available for. Only 3 days left as we begin the hurricane season.

EDT: Current Prediction count stands at 122.
There WILL be a prize for a friend who nails this hurricane season entirely. You have my word.


Hmmm, my prediction (uneducated guess) is going to be...12-4-1.
302. MahFL
Quoting 281. Sandy82579:

So much for the global warming prediction of increasing intensity and frequency of tropical storms.


It would be quieter with an El Nino, global warming or not.
303. vis0

Quoting 298. StormTrackerScott:



Possibly. Could be one of the most active E-Pac seasons ever.
add last year (2014) ePac wasn't chopped liver...
Quoting 280. weathermanwannabe:

Making the general observation, based upon the postings as to weather issues in the US and around the world as well as more media coverage, that a strong El Nino is probably the best thing that has recently happened with regard to getting the general public to pay closer attention to climate change issues and the world-wide impacts. Unfortunately, many lives will be-have already been lost around the world in 2015 as a results of the combined effects of this El Nino coupled with the impacts of global warming but hopefully, this will push more people in the direction of putting more pressure on their elected officials and/or political and business leadership to deal with the issues rather than kick the can down the road.
Hi Weather, yes and after the El Nino is over there will be a La Nina, and a cooling of the oceans and atmosphere.
Quoting 281. Sandy82579:

So much for the global warming prediction of increasing intensity and frequency of tropical storms.
Didn't you read the new norm for climate change, it's causing floods and less tropical storms than a few years ago when climate change was causing droughts and more sever hurricanes and storms. It's easy to fool the media.
Quoting 285. SLINKY:



A recent FSU study confirms the actual prediction of fewer but more powerful hurricanes in a warmer world: Link

While there is less agreement about the frequency of the weakest categories (Cat 2 and below), the frequency of the highest categories (Cat 3 and above) should increase as the globe warms.


Hi Slinky, and in a couple of years it will be more storms and less intense ones, need to keep the grant money coming in. Lets look at these trends over a long period of time before we state things like this. If you notice these statements always have a lot of if's, maybe's or could in them. Waste of time and money most of the time.