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Active 2009 hurricane season predicted by Colorado State scientists

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:20 PM GMT on December 10, 2008

It's going to be a moderately more active than average Atlantic hurricane season in 2009, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued by Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (CSU) today. The CSU team is calling for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an ACE index 30% above average (Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a measure of the total destructive power of a hurricane season, based on the number of days strong winds are observed). An average season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The CSU forecast calls for a 63% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., which is 11% above average. The odds for a major East Coast hurricane are put at 39% (a 31% chance is average), and odds for the Gulf Coast are put at 38% (30% chance is average). The CSU team's prediction of an above average hurricane season hinges on two main factors:

1) An El Niño event is not expected in 2009. The current pressure pattern in the Northeast Pacific is one frequently associated with the development of a La Niña event. A number of the computer models used to forecast El Niño are now calling for development of a La Niña event in 2009. Lack of an El Niño event in 2009 will lead to average to below average values of wind shear over the Atlantic, enhancing hurricane activity.

2) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic have been anomalously warm in October and November. This implies we are still in the active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995.


Figure 1. Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (colored squares) and TSR (colored lines). The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H=Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

How good are these December hurricane season forecasts?
Keep in mind that these December forecasts are a research project, and as yet have shown no skill in predicting the activity of upcoming hurricane seasons. They make this clear in the introduction to the December forecast, stating, "our real-time forecasts issued in early December from 1992-2007 did not show skill in real time". The CSU team talks extensively about their "hindcast" skill with these December forecasts, which means they can successfully predict the behavior of past hurricane seasons using their methodology. In their words, "It is only through hindcast skill that one can demonstrate that seasonal forecast skill is possible. This is a valid methodology provided that the atmosphere continues to behave in the future as it has in the past." The problem is that the atmosphere often does not continue to behave in the future as it has in the past, and a technique that is successful in a hindcast will often fail in a forecast. In their 2007 December forecast, they showed that the correlation coefficient (r squared), a standard mathematical measure of skill, was near zero for their real-time December forecasts between 1992-2007. They made a successful December 2007 forecast which was not included in that analysis, and their December skill is probably slightly positive now.

Another way to measure skill is using the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the forecast error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (Figure 1). The skill of the December forecasts issued by both CSU and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) have averaged near zero since 1992. Not surprisingly, the forecasts get better the closer they get to hurricane season. The TSR forecasts show more skill than the CSU forecasts, but it is unclear how much of this superiority is due to the fact that TSR issues forecasts of fractional storms (for example, TSR may forecast 14.7 named storms, while CSU uses only whole numbers like 14 or 15). TSR does an excellent job communicating their seasonal forecast skill. Each forecast is accompanied by a "Forecast Skill at this Lead" number, and they clearly define this quantity as "Percentage Improvement in Mean Square Error over Running 10-year Prior Climate Norm from Replicated Real Time Forecasts 1987-2006."

The June and August forecasts from CSU, TSR, and NOAA show some modest skill, and are valuable tools for insurance companies and emergency planners to help estimate their risks. The key problem with forecasts done in April or earlier is that the El Niño/La Niña atmospheric cycle that can dominate the activity of an Atlantic hurricane season is generally not predictable more than 3-6 months in advance. For example, none of the El Niño forecast models foresaw the September 2006 El Niño event until May of 2006. Until we can forecast the evolution of El Niño more than six months in advance, December forecasts of Atlantic hurricane activity are merely interesting mental exercises that don't deserve the media attention they get. There is hope for the December forecasts, since Klotzbach and Gray (2004) showed that their statistical scheme could make a skillful forecast in December, when applied to 50 years of historical data. However, these "hindcasts" are much easier to make than a real-time forecast. For example, before 1995, it was observed that high rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa was correlated with increased Atlantic hurricane activity. This correlation was used as part of the CSU forecast scheme. However, when the current active hurricane period began in 1995, the correlation stopped working. Drought conditions occurred in the Sahel, but Atlantic hurricane activity showed a major increase. The CSU team was forced to drop African rainfall as a predictor of Atlantic hurricane activity.

References
Klotzbach, P.J., and W.M. Gray, "Updated 6-11 Month Prediction of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Activity," Weather and Forecasting 19, Issue 5, October 2004, pp. 917-934.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters

Hope 2009 isnt as bad as this year tho

in other words few landfalls
Another year of above active Hurricane activity, we will be busy again. Thank you Dr. and Hope for a faster recovery for all those affected by this 2008 years storms. Prayers for Surfmom and those in Louisiana after yesterdays Tornados.-
Slightly lower than I expected, went for 15-8-4, but same ballpark.

Now, Doc, a pertinent question I'm sure you'll agree:

"He enjoys listening to Tangerine Dream, Loreena McKennitt, Anugama, and Beethoven."

-nods on taste- Any particular favourites? :P
Thanks Doc.

I would also like to see the skill statistics when a dart board is used for the forecast. Probably comparable...

Not dissing the research project, just our attempts to apply the forecast. Having journalists incessantly ring the phone at CSU over a December forecast is plain goofy.
Thanks for the update.
COTILLION, even more pertinent, is his choice of favourite movie. Monty Python and the Holy Grail. Mine too! What a Blast
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR)

Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic

Hurricane Activity in 2009
Issued: 5th December 2008
by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea
Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, UCL (University College London), UK



TSR Forecast (±FE) 2009

ACE Index - - - - - - 136 (±60)

Intense Hurricanes - - 3.5 (±1.8)

Hurricanes- - - - - - - - 7.7 (±2.8)

Tropical Storms - - - -14.8 (±4.3)
Quoting pottery:
Thanks for the update.
COTILLION, even more pertinent, is his choice of favourite movie. Monty Python and the Holy Grail. Mine too! What a Blast


I did prefer Life of Brian over Holy Grail.

However, for liking Python, anyone liking Python, one must administer a salute and a funny walk in respect. ;)
LOL Cot.
Back to work for me. HoHum.
we get the next sesons update thanks doc

hey i just put five postits on the dart board with different numbers for the 09 season cover my eyes thew the dart and hit nothing does that mean anything


lol

When is it NOT a busy season anymore?
Isn't it La Nina that causes increased tornado activity in the mid section of the country, or am I backwards on this?
ok Hurriane seaason 08 is over. Lets talk about the winter weather. Can anyone give an estimation on when the cold weather will return to the East and how long will building that High persist in the GOM? Thanks
OMG, we barely are through with 2008 and they are already predicting the 2009 season. We all know this will change many times between now and then.
Thanks Doctor; while I despise these "long term" forecasts, the information you cited as to the active multidecdal cycle, ie " Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic have been anomalously warm in October and November. This implies we are still in the active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995." is very interesting as I have often wondered "when" you pros would actually eventially declare that the current active cycle has come to an end......Is it solely based on SST's in the Fall, or, would you have to have a few seasons of both cooler SST's the precedent Fall, and, less activity during a few Summer seasons before you declared the end of the active period?.........Thanks.....

Also hoping the pending low in the Gulf does not deepen too much overnight for the Florida Big Bend...From the Tallahassee NWS discussion this AM "BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN JUST SOUTH OF MOBILE AND LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...THE KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO REACH 60-70KT OVERNIGHT EAST OF TALLAHASSEE."....YIKES
As a hurricane educator, I kinda wish there would be less hoopla about pre-season forecasts. All they do is give the public an excuse for not getting ready (Well, you guys called for a busy season LAST year, and nothing happened).

And, Dr. Gray and Dr. Klotzbach both admit that the forecasts have little - if any - skill. I'd be willing to wager that their predictions are only marginally better than rolling dice or spinning a wheel.

The only plus is that they help to keep hurricane top-of-mind in the off season... not a terrible thing...
Hi TampaTom, are you new or just returning?
GBlet....TampaTom is not new...
Great! Sometimes hard to keep up with everyone. Amy, how goes it? Here in the most landlocked place on Earth, I stayed prepared for anything. Yesterday, it was a dry snow, which now raises grass fire potential from lack of moisture, next week it will be an ice storm and so on and so on....
hey everyone...im at school and supposed to be doing work, but this is addictive
afternoon folks

Quoting GBlet:
Isn't it La Nina that causes increased tornado activity in the mid section of the country, or am I backwards on this?


Yes; La Nina increases the number of stronger tornadoes in particular, also causes more extreme winter weather (as last winter showed):

La Nina Probably Contributed to Huge Tornadoes

Cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the mid-Pacific, called La Nina, have caused many bizarre weather effects in North America, including record snow and monster tornadoes.

Start Date: 5/10/99

A rash of killer tornadoes that swept through the midwest United States in early May -- including at least one giant F-5, the most powerful category, packing winds approaching 300 miles per hour -- were driven in part by La Nina, scientists say. The cold-water condition in the mid-Pacific ocean, also credited with dropping a record 91 feet of snow on mountains in Washington state this winter, can be expected to produce more devastating tornadoes in the coming months. Already the number recorded this season is running ahead of normal expectations.
"The signal is there," said Steve Byrd, science officer for the National Weather Service in Omaha, Neb. "The incidence of tornadoes on the central Plains is slightly higher during La Nina."

The monster F-5 tornado that hit Oklahoma City, Oklahoma on May 3, 1999 may be one of the most powerful twisters ever recorded. It cut a path of destruction 19 miles long and nearly one mile wide and stayed on the ground for a full hour -- an unheard-of duration for normal tornadoes.

La Nina causes a colder-than-normal jet stream over the continental United States, which mixes with warm moist air coming up from the Gulf of Mexico to produce ideal tornado conditions. Scientists studying global climate change warn that more extreme El Nino and La Nina conditions can be expected in the future, bringing more extreme weather patterns as well.
man its cold here near 1 pm and sun is out as well
Brownsville Public Library - Central Blvd., Brownsville, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
47.9 °F / 8 °C
Clear
Windchill: 43 °F / 6 °C
Humidity: 64%
Dew Point: 36 °F / 2 °C
Wind: 3.0 mph / 4 km/hfrom the NW
Wind Gust: 17.0 mph / 27 km/h

I would love to see some of the tstorms hit our area here just south of savannah but somehow I think it's going to skirt north and west of us. Maybe some rain...
man its cold in houston wow!
Houston, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 12:53 PM CST on December 10, 2008
36 °F / 2 °C
Overcast
Windchill: 27 °F / -3 °C
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 30 °F / -1 °C
Wind: 15 mph / 24 km/h / 6.7 m/s from the NW
Wind Gust: 22 mph / 35 km/h / 9.8 m/s

Good Afternoon... Thx Doc.
Link
Snow pictures Aggieland.
Hopefully in a couple months we will no longer see people post anti-global warming nonsense, for fear that they will get arrested (since doing so would break the law; I wonder if any of those people are going to regret voting for him, assuming that they did so; LOL):

Obama vows to end global warming 'denial' after Gore talks

22 hours ago

CHICAGO (AFP) — President-elect Barack Obama said Tuesday his administration would brook no further delay in tackling climate change after discussing global warming with former vice president Al Gore.

Sitting between Gore and his vice president-elect Joseph Biden following the hour-long meeting, Obama told reporters: "All three of us are in agreement that the time for delay is over. The time for denial is over.

"We all believe what the scientists have been telling us for years now, that this is a matter of urgency and national security, and it has to be dealt with in a serious way. That is what I intend my administration to do," he said.

Since his defeat in the 2000 presidential election, Gore has been awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for his relentless efforts to combat climate change and starred in an Oscar-winning documentary called "An Inconvenient Truth."

Gore is thought unlikely to figure in Obama's incoming administration, which takes office on January 20.

But the climate change crusader is winning a respectful new audience for his views as Obama promises to unwind the environmental policies of President George W. Bush despite an economic recession hitting the United States.
28. Inyo
No, if people want to believe in stupid, irrational things (or refuse to believe in rational things), they can, it just shouldn't influence national policy.

That also is a stupid article to imply that bush's gutting of environmental regulations are somehow good for the economy... of course filthy air and water are great for the economy, right?
oh boy, y'all just had to go and use those two words...."Global Warming"....there goes the blog....
I assume that was a joke STL, as the 1st would block that law. ;)
you texans gonna build a mini snowman??

jo
Global warming freeze?

"To the extent global warming was ever valid, it is now officially over. It is time to file this theory in the dustbin of history, next to Aristotelean physics, Neptunism, the geocentric universe, phlogiston, and a plethora of other incorrect scientific theories, all of which had vocal and dogmatic supporters who cited incontrovertible evidence.

Weather and climate change are natural processes beyond human control. To argue otherwise is to deny the factual evidence."
“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” - Nobel Prize Winner for Physics, Ivar Giaever.

“Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can speak quite frankly….As a scientist I remain skeptical.” - Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology and formerly of NASA who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called “among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years.”

Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” - UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical chemist.

“The IPCC has actually become a closed circuit; it doesn’t listen to others. It doesn’t have open minds… I am really amazed that the Nobel Peace Prize has been given on scientifically incorrect conclusions by people who are not geologists,” - Indian geologist Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia at Punjab University and a board member of the UN-supported International Year of the Planet.

“The models and forecasts of the UN IPCC "are incorrect because they only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity.” - Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico

“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” - U.S Government Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA.

“Even doubling or tripling the amount of carbon dioxide will virtually have little impact, as water vapour and water condensed on particles as clouds dominate the worldwide scene and always will.” – . Geoffrey G. Duffy, a professor in the Department of Chemical and Materials Engineering of the University of Auckland, NZ.

“After reading [UN IPCC chairman] Pachauri's asinine comment [comparing skeptics to] Flat Earthers, it's hard to remain quiet.” - Climate statistician Dr. William M. Briggs, who specializes in the statistics of forecast evaluation, serves on the American Meteorological Society's Probability and Statistics Committee and is an Associate Editor of Monthly Weather Review.

“For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet is not warming? For how many years must cooling go on?" - Geologist Dr. David Gee the chairman of the science committee of the 2008 International Geological Congress who has authored 130 plus peer reviewed papers, and is currently at Uppsala University in Sweden.

“Gore prompted me to start delving into the science again and I quickly found myself solidly in the skeptic camp…Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate changes after the fact.” - Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland, who reversed his belief in man-made warming to become a skeptic, is a former member of the Dutch UN IPCC committee.

“Many [scientists] are now searching for a way to back out quietly (from promoting warming fears), without having their professional careers ruined.” - Atmospheric physicist James A. Peden, formerly of the Space Research and Coordination Center in Pittsburgh.

“Creating an ideology pegged to carbon dioxide is a dangerous nonsense…The present alarm on climate change is an instrument of social control, a pretext for major businesses and political battle. It became an ideology, which is concerning.” - Environmental Scientist Professor Delgado Domingos of Portugal, the founder of the Numerical Weather Forecast group, has more than 150 published articles.

“CO2 emissions make absolutely no difference one way or another….Every scientist knows this, but it doesn’t pay to say so…Global warming, as a political vehicle, keeps Europeans in the driver’s seat and developing nations walking barefoot.” - Dr. Takeda Kunihiko, vice-chancellor of the Institute of Science and Technology Research at Chubu University in Japan.

“The [global warming] scaremongering has its justification in the fact that it is something that generates funds.” - Award-winning Paleontologist Dr. Eduardo Tonni, of the Committee for Scientific Research in Buenos Aires and head of the Paleontology Department at the University of La Plata.
cool air will spill in behind
the cold front and lead to one more cooler than normal morning
Saturday. Model guidance has been trending downward with
temperatures the last several days...and have mirrored this
trend...while remaining above model forecasts. Beginning Saturday
and into next week center of high pressure will build over Florida both at the
surface and aloft. Temperatures will be near average.


Looks like we will see an extended period of spectacular weather under sunny skies!
33. Seastep 2:32 PM CST on December 10, 2008

Wow... Another for my very long iggie lists... posting such nonsense (none of that is true, just as the supposed scientists who say global warming isn't fact are not actually scientists)... too bad he doesn't want to actually look at the science (e.g. here, or ask actual climate scientists here). Oh well... in less than two months he will have to adjust to the policies of our new President (yes, I was joking a bit when I said denialists would be arrested but Obama is certainly going to make some big changes)...
Is the peninsula of Florida still supposed to get an organized squall-line in the morning? What's the severe weather potential looking like?
Afternoon all,came in to say hi and run smack into a GW blog,talk about bad timing!!
NE, you can say that again!

;)
Quoting MichaelSTL:
33. Seastep 2:32 PM CST on December 10, 2008

Wow... Another for my very long iggie lists... posting such nonsense (none of that is true, just as the supposed scientists who say global warming isn't fact are not actually scientists)... too bad he doesn't want to actually look at the science (e.g. here, or ask actual climate scientists here). Oh well... in less than two months he will have to adjust to the policies of our new President (yes, I was joking a bit when I said denialists would be arrested but Obama is certainly going to make some big changes)...


You can tell which side of the argument is winning by the way it is argued. Have to get personal when the facts are running against you... and more and more each day.

"Supposed scientists?" No different than those referenced by yourself.

Especially look at geologists who are used to studying constant climate change over very long time periods of Earth's history, who think that basically the climate of the earth is always changing due to various forcings, and what's the big deal now?

In closing, I'll do what is asked from that article: "Would someone please tell these people it is impossible to overturn the laws of thermodynamics?"

So, I'm just letting you know. ;)
Me too NE.

Im out going to a more civil blog
weatherbro: How long is the high supposed to stay set up here?
re: Is the peninsula of Florida still supposed to get an organized squall-line in the morning? What's the severe weather potential looking like?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
313 AM EST WED DEC 10 2008


BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN JUST SOUTH
OF MOBILE AND LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...THE
KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO REACH 60-70KT OVERNIGHT
EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. THE LIMITING FACTOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING IS LIKELY
TO OVERCOME THIS TO SOME EXTENT AND DO ANTICIPATE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. MAIN
THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

jo
I wonder what they think is causing the warming (which is still going on, El Nino/La Nina events aside which in the long term have no effect). Not solar activity because the trends are all wrong (although there is a signal that can be extracted, about 0.1*C, but certainly not very obvious):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

(unless you suggest that the relationship is inverse; i.e. less sunspots = warmer temperatures)

Nor is it due to some oceanic oscillation since ocean heat content wouldn't be increasing if they were somehow releasing heat (as some claim for cycles like the PDO or AMO, whose very definition (see here, at top, for example), subtracting the mean global SST to extract the signal, precludes any significant global effects, nor for some mysterious as yet undiscovered (somehow) cycle).

I also think that Obama should make it mandatory that everybody takes at least one course in high school/college to study the properties of carbon dioxide with respect to its radiative properties, as shown below:



Heck, it is this easy to measure:

Hey,Bone,how's your weather?
Rainy right now some winds. Nothing spectacular. Calling for an icing event for me though late tonight into friday morning =(

No snow but freezing rain. One of these storms I will get my snow!
Thanks Shudders. I took a peak at WFTVs main forcast model and it now shows the squall-line becoming broken then almost washing out by the time it gets to east central Florida. That is a huge change from yesterday, and kind of a let down. Maybe it will change back?
great

OKX just put me under a Winter Storm Warning for heavy ice accumulation from 6am thursday to 6am friday

calling for significant icing event with downed tress and power interuptions

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COULD ACCUMULATE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ON SURFACES BEFORE ENDING. IF THAT IS THE CASE,
TRAVELING WILL BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS, BRINGING SMALL TREES AND WIRES DOWN WITH POWER INTERRUPTIONS.

THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL, CAUSING ADDITIONAL FREEZING. IN ADDITION, NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 OR 30 MPH FURTHER BRINING DOWN POWER LINES AND TREES.
Quoting Bonedog:
Rainy right now some winds. Nothing spectacular. Calling for an icing event for me though late tonight into friday morning =(

No snow but freezing rain. One of these storms I will get my snow!


Sounds like were going into a warmer weather pattern,may not get your snow for a while,but keep snowcasting,maybe the snow gods will smile on you
hopefully they do NE. Looks like no chance after this storm until the new year with the pattern change coming =/
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
re: Is the peninsula of Florida still supposed to get an organized squall-line in the morning? What's the severe weather potential looking like?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
313 AM EST WED DEC 10 2008


BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN JUST SOUTH
OF MOBILE AND LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...THE
KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO REACH 60-70KT OVERNIGHT
EAST OF TALLAHASSEE. THE LIMITING FACTOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE LACK OF
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING IS LIKELY
TO OVERCOME THIS TO SOME EXTENT AND DO ANTICIPATE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER. MAIN
THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

jo


In looking at the most recent loops, seems to me like the "squall line" is starting to peter out and I can't discern the forcasted cut-off low on the WV loops yet so I'm not sure how strong the "dynamic forcing" will turn out to be........Anxiously awaiting the afternoon update from Tally NWS as this report is from the early am and conditions may have changed a bit since then......
Refer to comment 44:


Here is the spectrum with no CO2:



Now let us introduce just 10 parts per million of CO2 into the atmosphere:



Now let us enter modern day 380 parts per million of CO2:



With water vapor, ozone and methane:



Source
tampa says

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
212 PM EST WED DEC 10 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-110500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
212 PM EST WED DEC 10 2008

...SQUALL LINE TO IMPACT WEST FLORIDA THURSDAY...

A SIGNIFICANT SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND IMPACT WEST FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL VENTILATION
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
ALONG THE LINE. THE BEST COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL
LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS AND WILL MOST LIKELY ONLY AFFECT AREAS FROM
TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. STORMS THAT MOVE ASHORE NEAR THE BAY AND TO
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST. THE SQUALL LINE
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NATURE COAST BEGINNING AROUND 7 AM
EST...WITH THE BAY AREA SEEING IMPACTS BY 9 AM...AND AREAS FURTHER
SOUTH BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM.

THE LINE WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME DURING THE MORNING...AND AREAS
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE STORMS SUBSTANTIALLY
WEAKER THAN THOSE MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
MAY STILL EXIST BUT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE
I keep seeing that the east will be entering a warming trend but nobody has said how long it will last. Does anyone have a hunch or long term data to say how long this seasonal warming trend till last? Thanks
Quoting Bonedog:
Me too NE.

Im out going to a more civil blog
Go over to Rob's blog. Seems quite a few folks have moved over there.
LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT BLIZZARD!
I wonder if said warming trend includes the midwest? I'm headed to Michigan of Christmas and would like some snow.
New depression in Wpac Link
last storm?
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
you texans gonna build a mini snowman??

jo

We Texans ARE snowmen right now, frozen solid, or so it feels. At 6:30 this morning, I felt snow flakes--too dark to see them, and there weren't many, but having lived in IL, I know a snowflake when I feel it. And my roof not yet finished from Ike. Unfair to have hurricanes AND cold weather!
Snowing in Tomball, TX ( just NW of Houston ).
Good flakes.
The GOM IR Loop and the Storm...Link

..the ULL should track just off the Mouth of the Miss River come Dawn..
53. HobeSoundShudders 4:18 PM EST on December 10, 2008......With a Thursday arrival date, we'll have to see what develops with that forecasted low level jet...Well, going home and hoping for some rain and not too much wind...We can always use the rain this time of year....Good Evening Folks....WW
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Refer to comment 44:


Here is the spectrum with no CO2:



Now let us introduce just 10 parts per million of CO2 into the atmosphere:



Now let us enter modern day 380 parts per million of CO2:



With water vapor, ozone and methane:



Source


A thank goodness for it. Do you know how cold the dark side of the moon is?

As for your earlier comments, careful or you will end up with as much credibility as our Blooming friend in that other blog...

If you want to be an successful ambassador for something, that comes with a certain attitude.
Link
I think there is something forming there
Hi everyone! We have about 13 cm (5 in) of snow where I live in S. Ontario, some crazy weather could be in store next week. TD 27 formed from a non-tropical low! Also, a nearly 40% chance of a major hurricane strike on the east coast and a 63% chance anywhere in the US sounds a bit scary. Could [redacted] have another lucky year or could this be it? It seems surprising to say that the US hasn't been hit by any major hurricanes this year (except perhaps Ike). It seems that neutral seasons have more named storms nowadays than La Nina seasons, for example 2005 and 2008 were crazier than 2007. Notice how every single named storm this year was in some way very unusual?
Guys its snowing here where I live! Im in the extreme nw end of pearland/brazoria (near houston

its so beautiful i'll send some p9ics to prove it :)
Night Befo' Crizzmus
>
> Wus da night afo' Crizzmus, and all thru da hood,
>
> everybody be sleepin' and da sleepin' be good.
>
> We hunged up our stockins, an hoped like all heck,
>
> dat Obama gunna brang us our checks.
>
> All of da family, was lay'in on da flo',
>
> my sister wif her gurlfriend,
>
> my brother wif some ho.
>
> Ashtrays was all full , empty beer cans and all
>
> when I heared such a fuss, I thunk...."Sh'eet, must be da law".
>
> I pulled the sheet off da window and what I'ze could see,
>
> I was spectin' the sherrif, wif a warrent fo' me.
>
> But what did I see, made me say, "Lawd look 'a dat!"
>
> Dere was a huge watermelon, pulled by eight big-ass rats.
>
> Now ovah da years, Santy Claws he be white,
>
> but it looks like us brotha's, got a black un' tonight.
>
> Faster than a poe'lice car, my homeboy he came,
>
> and whupped up on dem rats, as he called dem by name.
>
> On Biden, On Jessie, On Pelosi and Hillary Who On Fannie, On Freddie, On Ayers, and Slick Willy too.
>
> Obama landed dat melon, right there in da street,
>
> I knowed it fo' sho', - can you believe that Sheet?
>
> Dat Santy didn't need no chimley, he picked da lock on my do',
>
> an I sez to myself, "Son o' bitch...he don did dis befo!"
>
> He had a big bag, full of presents - at first I suspeck?
>
> Wif "Air Jordans" and fake gold, to wear roun' my neck.
>
> But he left me no presents, just started stealin my shit.
>
> He got my guns and my crack, and my new burglers kit.
>
> Den, wif my shit in his bag, out da windo' he flew,
>
> I sho' woulda shanked him, be he snagged my blade too!
>
>
> He jumped back on dat melon, wif out even a hitch,
>
> and waz gone in two seconds, da democrat sonofabitch.
>
> So nex year I be hopin', a white Santy we git,
>
> 'cause a black Santy Claws, just ain't worf a shit!
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
Guys its snowing here where I live! Im in the extreme nw end of pearland/brazoria (near houston

its so beautiful i'll send some p9ics to prove it :)

Texas gets snow and VA get rain?!? that's not right
I really appreaciated everyones support during these horrible days. Thank you all very much. I just updated my blog.....

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
We floridians should get some good rain tomorrow
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Texas gets snow and VA get rain?!? that's not right


LOL don't worry it should snow there when it rains here LOL
Statement as of 6:14 PM CST on December 10, 2008


... Winter Weather Advisory in effect until midnight CST tonight...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for periods of light snow and icy
roadways. The Winter Weather Advisory is in effect until midnight
CST tonight.

Surface temperatures have dropped to freezing across the area.
Light snow melting on contact with the ground has begun to freeze
on bridges and overpasses. Light accumulation of ice will occur
on elevated roadway surface such as bridges and overpasses. The
snow is expected to end between midnight and 3 am CST.

Roads... bridges... and overpasses in the warning area are slick
and hazardous. Accumulation of ice on roadways... bridges and
overpasses will make travel treacherous.




finally I knew they should have done this
70 are you expecting a wet winter
lol
and TD27 is looking better
SE Weather Forecast

The developing sub-synoptic scale cyclone has been fully established along the baroclinic zone near the Florida panhandle. This system is strengthening rapidly due to two vigorous anticyclones along its east and west, and instability caused by the strong temperature gradient. According to the CIMSS data, both lower level convergence and upper level divergence are abundant within the cold front. This low will cause welcoming rains here....my crops needs that. According to the local TV forecasts, high temperatures are expected to reach the upper-60s here in the treasure Coast. Albeit high temperatures are quite low, the overall low temperature is expected to be a fresh 51 degrees. This is because the system associated with the front is quite close to us, and clouds may still be present in the sky, thus, less thermal energy escapes (mini-greenhouse lol). In addition, the cyclone associated with the cool front is moving remarkably fast. Subsequent to the arrival of the front, an anticyclone is expected to set over florida within 24 hours, warming the air adiabatically. Beyond that, we have comfortable days ahead.

FutureMet
Snow surprises Houston-area residents
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle

Residents in the greater Houston area are reporting snowfall this afternoon.

As afternoon temperatures north of Houston hovered just above freezing on Wednesday afternoon snow fell across parts of the area.

According to the National Weather Service, areas such as Tomball and College Station all received snow flurries on Wednesday afternoon. Some areas, such as the Hwy 290 and Hwy 249 corridors, received moderately heavy snow at times.

The ground remains relatively warm so accumulation isn't expected in most areas, except in fields, yards and on the tops of cars.

Forecasters said snow is possible this evening northwest of a line from Freeport to Pasadena to Liberty, likely ending after about 9 p.m.

Although temperatures for much of the area may fall below freezing tonight, the precipitation should end, with the sun returning tomorrow to bring daytime highs into the mid- to upper-50s.

PS RE 72:

yes due to the maps that iv'e seen we may have a warm up on the way and then this warm up will go east but before it does it should be cold there in VA just have to give it a day

over in san antonio texas the day b4 we broke a high record of 85 F and now its cold there ( it was snowing there in the morning)
LATEST VIDEO FROM FUTUREMET PRODUCTIONS

Enjoy =D

Quoting all4hurricanes:
70 are you expecting a wet winter
lol
and TD27 is looking better


It looks like a line now...??
Rare sleet in Baytown,TX for at least an hour now.
Now it is snowing in Baytown Tx. It really won't affect us much beyond the fact that the dog does not want to go out!
Thank for the video futuremet it was good
Does some one whish to tell me why I, here in New york, am getting .3 inches of ice while Mississippi is getting 3 inches of snow.
(i know the reason, just wanted to point it out)

There be many a thing wrong in this world ;-)
Quoting HurrikanEB:
Does some one whish to tell me why I, here in New york, am getting .3 inches of ice while Mississippi is getting 3 inches of snow.
(i know the reason, just wanted to point it out)

There be many a thing wrong in this world ;-)

The world inverted while we weren't looking
snow in Texas and rain in VA with 60 temp
I think mother natures on drugs for the moment.
I think she got addicted when it was 67 degrees in January earlier this year lol
now we have ice pellets

PS RE 81 and 82:

LOL topsi turvi
2009
Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, and Wanda. To Early?
I think it is non-info for someone to post on this blog their current interesting weather conditions without including their location. Not everyone who reads this blog has the time to read it 24/7 and create a database that tracks all bloggers location. I now step down from my soap box and go out to take more Baytown Tx snow pics.
Fiji Meteorological Services (north of 25S, 160E-140W)
Wellington Meteorological Services NZ (south of 25S)

Tropical Disturbance Summary
============================
At 6 AM FST, Tropical Disturbance 03F (1001 hPa) located at 8.0S 162.0E. Position POOR based on Multispectral Infrared/Visible imagery and surface analysis. Sea surface temperatures is around 30-32C.

Tropical Disturbance Three lies to the west of an upper level anticyclone and in a moderately sheared environment. There is no definite low level circulation center and convection is confined to the north of the disturbance. Global models show no deepening of the system.

Potential for Tropical Disturbance THREE to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is LOW.
Quoting BtnTx:
I think it is non-info for someone to post on this blog their current interesting weather conditions without including their location. Not everyone who reads this blog has the time to read it 24/7 and create a database that tracks all bloggers location. I now step down from my soap box and go out to take more Baytown Tx snow pics.


Im in NW pearland/brazoria (S of Houston)

PS first part may be tru but second part ummmm well check these persons by the name of Orcasystems and Zoomiami
also holy cow my windshield!

time for more pix :)
Quoting BtnTx:
I think it is non-info for someone to post on this blog their current interesting weather conditions without including their location. Not everyone who reads this blog has the time to read it 24/7 and create a database that tracks all bloggers location. I now step down from my soap box and go out to take more Baytown Tx snow pics.

I live in Fairfax, in northern VA I try to mention at least my general area when I talk about the weather here. But its not like any interesting weather ever happens here
Keep in mind that these December forecasts are a research project, and as yet have shown no skill in predicting the activity of upcoming hurricane seasons.


Right!
Thank you Dr. Masters!

Quoting TampaSpin:
I really appreaciated everyones support during these horrible days. Thank you all very much. I just updated my blog.....

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
Welcome back TS!
OK bed time Good night all
Wind evolution with this storm will be quite intersting as well as actual track compared to the models. We can see the upper level low over the Gulf Coast states.
Neighbors now building a snowman here in Baytown Tx and my wife says I need to go see it now!
How much snow has fallen in TX? Also surface low is over the North Central Gulf of Mexico.
Jim cantore said they have had 1/2inch so far in southeastern Houston(and an inch east of there), and it is now snowing in Galveston. Wow I'm really starting to feel left out here in Orlando with this system!
Houston is officially in the twilight zone! It was 78 degrees yesterday and tonight I was driving in snow. It just boggles the mind! There is snow on the remnants of my hurricane Ike damage...couldn't have seen that coming! :-)
Hey I have seen it snow 3 times in Houston in 1 year in 1973.
1989 2"
2004 1" 12" south of town
1982 1"
1979 1"
1963 2.5"
1895 20"
still snowing in Baytown Tx, must be 2 inches+
Crazy huh? It's still snowing in Clear Lake too.
... Snow falling across southeast Texas... .

A cold upper level low pressure system moving across Texas has
produced an area of light snow. Light snow fell early this morning
over parts of Washington... Burleson and Brazos counties. Light
snow redeveloped this afternoon as the upper low moved closer to
the Houston area. Although snowfall reports are incomplete... here
are a few unofficial totals through 830 PM from across southeast
texas:

College Station - 1 inch
Brenham - 1 inch
Bedias - 0.5 inch
Houston (se) - 0.2 inch
NWS office - 0.2 inch


When did it snow last??? snow flurries fell across the extreme
northern parts of the region on March 7th 2008 but the last
measurable snow occurred on April 7th 2007 north of a Caldwell to
Livingston line. One to two inches of snow fell on that Saturday.

The last measurable snow to fall in the Houston area fell on
Christmas eve in 2004. Snow amounts were a trace at
Intercontinental Airport... but southern suburbs like Pearland...
Webster and Clear Lake received 2 to 3 inches of snow. Further
south a band of heavy snow affected Wharton... Fort Bend and
Brazoria counties.

For what it's Worth... the last land falling hurricane on Galveston
Island before Hurricane Ike was Hurricane Jerry in 1989. There
was 1.7 inches of snow on December 22 1989. Hurricane Alicia made
landfall in 1983 and there were several days with snow flurries in
December of 1983. Just a coincidence... maybe... then again who knows?

Enjoy the snow tonight because it will melt quickly on Thursday
morning as temperatures warm into the lower 50s. Long range
forecasts do not support additional snow for the next seven to ten days.

Quoting all4hurricanes:
2009
Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, and Wanda. To Early?


a bit :)
im just gettin' ready for winter
Thanks Drak...and we really did enjoy it. It's really the best kind of snow because there is just enough to enjoy and it goes away before it causes much trouble.

This is only the 2nd time I've seen snow fall. The first was Christmas Eve 2004.
I will Drak :)

in fact I made a snow man u guys wanna know how? I tell yall later in 10-20mins till then guess :)

I got a photo to prove it too :)


PS so if we have a hurricane there will be snow? LOL funny how that works fell bad for those who have blue on the roof

also my area is NW Pearland/Brazoria (south of Houston/Harris and east of Sugar land/Fortbend
Drak, what is your thoughts on any high wind situation for SE MA?
Or what do you look for in terms of determining if high winds will be mixed to the surface or if any convection develops?
HI EVERYONE!!!

Snow in Houston eh? Wow then we might get snow here in SW LA! I am in Calcasieu Parish. I wonder if its gonna accumalate here?? Anyone know any info about that as of now?? (10:22pm Central time) THANKS! :)

Joanie
LOL the kiddies in baytown are getting little "snow days" (they start later than usual (9:00am CT))

PS not gonna give an answer to how I made a snowman till I see a person guess at least

I wanna get your Post season minds working (I didn't get as much as the businesses near Broadway and TX 288)

as to why I din't get much considering the businesses are near me maybe having a lake near me as well has something to do with it?
Winter Storm Warning for parts of Louisiana.(!Up to half a foot!) 3-5inches

Also, to note just looking I glanced there was a EF1 tornado touchdown.

Snow is expected from Texas to Alabama.

Quoting NorthxCakalaky:
Winter Storm Warning for parts of Louisiana.(!Up to half a foot!) 3-5inches

Also, to note just looking I glanced there was a EF1 tornado touchdown.

Snow is expected from Texas to Alabama.



Where in Louisiana?? And when was the EF tornado touchdown???
Three to five inches?!?! Where are you getting that info from??

I live in South Central Louisiana, and all the info I see as of right now list no more than at best one-half an inch of snow, if that. If it even reaches the ground.

Right now, we are getting just a cold rainy drizzle...but I'm figuring that later tonight into sunrise we may get some frozen stuff..if we're lucky. Most times, it all misses us to the north...but we might get lucky.


Anthony
And to Joanie....depending on which part of SW LA you are in, you might get some wintry fun. Anyone north and west of a Lake Charles to Opelousas to Baton Rouge line is more likely to get some snow later this morning; everywhere else, more like cold rain with possibly a flurry and sleet pellet mixed in.

On the other hand, if it does get a couple of degrees colder than expected later on across the region, then the whole region could get a nice dusting...and we may even see some 1 inch accumulations especially in the northern parishes around Alex and Bunkie and points eastward. Even the coast might get some flurries if that holds up.


Anthony
Quoting NorthxCakalaky:
Winter Storm Warning for parts of Louisiana.(!Up to half a foot!) 3-5inches

Also, to note just looking I glanced there was a EF1 tornado touchdown.

Snow is expected from Texas to Alabama.



Actually, the Winter Storm Warnings that I see posted on the WU page are for central Mississippi, NOT Louisiana. Most areas of Louisiana is under a Winter Weather Advisory for possible snow/sleet mix and a low threat of accumulation, but nothing like what is forecasted for the Jackson area.


Anthony
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:
And to Joanie....depending on which part of SW LA you are in, you might get some wintry fun. Anyone north and west of a Lake Charles to Opelousas to Baton Rouge line is more likely to get some snow later this morning; everywhere else, more like cold rain with possibly a flurry and sleet pellet mixed in.

On the other hand, if it does get a couple of degrees colder than expected later on across the region, then the whole region could get a nice dusting...and we may even see some 1 inch accumulations especially in the northern parishes around Alex and Bunkie and points eastward. Even the coast might get some flurries if that holds up.


Anthony


I am in Calcasieu Parish in DeQuincy...I would like to see snow down here!!!!!
Bad weather coming to the bay area.
I'm usually not one to advertise my blog but I feel sometimes, during certain situations, it is necessary.

Severe Nor'easter to pound the Northeast

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE NORTHEAST. RESIDENTS HOULD PREPARE FOR A DEVASTATING ICE STORM THAT WILL BRING DOWN NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES. SOME AREAS COULD BE OUT OF POWER FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS UTILITY CREWS STRUGGLE TO GET A FOOT HOLD ON THE SITUATION. ANYONE IN THE AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY STEPS TO ENSURE THEIR SAFETY. TRAVEL IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED THURSDAY AFTERNON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT, IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE. A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE STORM LASTING INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE AFFECTED AREAS WHICH MAY PRESENT LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS FOR THOSE WHO RELY ON ELECTRICTY FOR HEATING PURPOSES.

I heed all living in the Northeast to take this winter storm very seriously!
can anyone explain why noone builds underground powerlines in Hurricane and Winter weather prone areas?????

it would save people alot of trouble like it did for me during 04 in Florida and Ike in texas
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
can anyone explain why noone builds underground powerlines in Hurricane and Winter weather prone areas?????

it would save people alot of trouble like it did for me during 04 in Florida and Ike in texas


Well, that would be acting in an efficient manner, which, as we all know, this country just prides itself in.
Quoting sullivanweather:


Well, that would be acting in an efficient manner, which, as we all know, this country just prides itself in.


LOL!!!!! if only this country actually walks the walk instead of talk the talk most of the time

maybe things could change for the better.... hopefully.... if our govt makes a smart move and opens up its mind to the possibilities and actually follows through with it.
121. IKE
Terribly windy outside...frontal passage just happened....down to 57 degrees.
122. IKE
3.45 inches of rain so far. Crestview,FL., over 5 inches since yesterday.
123. IKE
Quoting IKE:
Wow~
Absolutely beautiful, isn't it?
125. IKE
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Absolutely beautiful, isn't it?


Truthfully...it is. In some ways their more impressive then hurricanes...that is one tight low.
126. IKE
I want to see a visible on it...lol...
hi Ike hi StormW

it snowed here in Houston LOL

while in places where it does snow it rained LOL

mother nature is so funny

I'll see if I can upload some pix I took last night/early morning

snow melted where I am and I think I won't see it freeze

plus I hear theres a warm up on the way how long is it? could it go pass Xmas?
130. IKE
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
hi Ike hi StormW

it snowed here in Houston LOL

while in places where it does snow it rained LOL

mother nature is so funny

I'll see if I can upload some pix I took last night/early morning

snow melted where I am and I think I won't see it freeze

plus I hear theres a warm up on the way how long is it? could it go pass Xmas?


Not sure about the length of the warm-up. According to the 8-14 day outlook...for at least 2 weeks.
LOL overall pattern causing this cold air and the low on the sat came too early if it had come 2 weeks later then we would have definitely have an encore performance of Christmas Eve/Day 2004
also in a weird turn of events the NWS here mentioned that there were significant snow events after Alicia 83 and Jerry 89 hit texas.
g'morning Ike, stormW, everyone.

Northeast coast of Florida- sunrise to flourescent purples, salmon, and orange. Deep aqua more to the east. Gorgeous.
Good morning All
Wx in Wilmington
68F
Cloudy with wind from North at 5 kts
Forecast is for 72 with thunderstorms
135. IKE
I'm down to 54 degrees with rain in the Florida panhandle.
Stop bragging Ike! LOL

It's 73 here at 7am...we were 84 yesterday!
Send it on down!!

139. IKE
Quoting vortfix:
Stop bragging Ike! LOL

It's 73 here at 7am...we were 84 yesterday!
Send it on down!!



Your cool down will be coming soon...after a squall line moves through.
my nephew is in penobscot maine...is that noreaster going to affect him..
Now doesn't that beat all, I live in Indiana, and I have a smow plow bidness, and and waiting to make some money, and It snows 500 miles to the south, thats just my luck!
142. IKE
WTF????????????????????????????

Thunderstorm Snow Fog.....

Baton Rouge,LA. folks!
143. IKE
McComb, Mississippi (Airport)
Updated: 17 min 9 sec ago
Light Snow
34 °F
Light Snow Mist
Windchill: 27 °F
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 30 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the WNW
Pressure: 29.76 in (Falling)
Visibility: 1.5 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 600 ft
Overcast 1000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 410 ft
144. IKE
Hang in there New Orleans...another bout of precip. is rotating toward you....could it be....?????? Snow?
This is my first post... sitting in my house at Dekle Beach Florida as it moves slightly with the stronger gusts. A friend recommended weatherunderground as the absolute best place for weather information.
Good morning...

If this system would have developed a bit further South and slighted E to ENE, I wouldn't have been surprised that our FL Panhandle folks would have gotten some wintry mix.
147. IKE
Now
At 630 am CST...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a line of snow showers with embedded areas of moderate to heavy snowfall located along and west of a line from Poplarville...to Lacomb...to Napoleonville. The line is moving moving southeast at 10 mph. These conditions are expected to move into St. Charles Jefferson and Orleans parishes as well as Hancock County within the hour. If traveling this morning...caution is advised on all roadways with special attention on elevated roadways. Widespread accumulations of around a half inch can be expected with some areas receiving up to 2 inches within the heaviest snowfall. For additional information...visit our web site at www.Weather.Gov/neworleans
Wow! I can't believe the snow in Baton Rouge! At least an inch covering all of my yard!
Good Morning,

Heads up to anyone in the Shreveport LA area:
The Endeavour Shuttle piggybacked on the 747 carrier
is next heading to Barksdale AFB, Louisiana.
According to the KSC update line.
Stay tuned for updates (re:WX etc.)
CRS

[currently on the ground at: Carswell - NAS Fort Worth, Joint Reserve Base]
Good Morning from Tallahassee....Not too much rain this am but several strong wind gusts in the 30-50 MPH range (little difficult shaving and getting two kids off to school using candles when the power went out)....Looks like the forcasted low did materialize and the "line" headed towards the Florida west coast.......Not too much rain but certainly expect some gusty winds and sporadic power outages........Also, no Grouper fishing today....
Wow...Snow, snow and more snow...
I just LOVE the weather here in Wilmington
ajcamsmom, where you at Lafeyette?
I'm in Prairieville in SE Louisiana, and I have never seen snow like this. It's so amazing. Got at least 1 1/2 inches to 2 inches of snow on the ground, and still falling. Under a Winter Storm Warning until noon. Surprisingly, none of this was even forecast, both by the NWS, and by myself. I love it when nature defies our forecasts -- goes to show how little we know.
155. IKE
Hattiesburg, Mississippi (Airport)
Updated: 5 min 33 sec ago
Light Snow
36 °F
Light Snow
Windchill: 30 °F
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 34 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the WSW
Pressure: 29.70 in (Falling)
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 700 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2500 ft
Overcast 3900 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 151 ft
156. IKE
Baton Rouge,LA....0.50 Snow Fog

Visibility 1/2 mile.....lol.
Quoting IKE:
Baton Rouge,LA....0.50 Snow Fog

Visibility 1/2 mile.....lol.


I've got to go to the grocery store momentarily. Gonna be difficult with that. lol
158. IKE
Quoting KoritheMan:


I've got to go to the grocery store momentarily. Gonna be difficult with that. lol


Incredible...it's moving in on New Orleans....

Morning all: Downright yucky here (Melbourne, FL) - like a muggy summer morning. Yea, cold front heading our way.
IKE: Yep, maybe Pat's gonna see some snow? :) If you're reading this, careful out there, Pat!

conchy: Good morning.
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
can anyone explain why noone builds underground powerlines in Hurricane and Winter weather prone areas?????

it would save people alot of trouble like it did for me during 04 in Florida and Ike in texas
Electricity creates heat. Heat creates resistance. Buried lines cannot disapate heat like aerial. High voltage transmission lines would require very large conductors and larger generating plants to keep up with demand. Short low voltage buried distribution into subdivisions is one thing, but untill every town has it's own power plant the high voltage will stay aerial. LOL
Sleet Mixed with Snow now reported from Uptown NOLA and the Patrap Cave..

Wowsa..Link
Speak of the devil. There you are, Pat. Take it easy.

Anyway, I'm off for now all. I've been up all night waiting on this snow, and now that I've seen my first significant snowstorm, I'm going to bed.
Winter Weather Advisory NOLA Link


Statement as of 7:16 AM CST on December 11, 2008

... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until noon CST
today...

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until noon CST today.

A cold and potent storm system will cause a cold rain to mix with
sleet this morning... then mix with and changeover to snow during
this morning rush hour... generally between 6 and 10 am.
Temperatures are expected to remain just above freezing with the
ground remaining relatively warm... however occasional heavy
bursts of snow may cause one to two inches of accumulation in
grassy areas with some icing and slushy conditions possible on
elevated bridges and overpasses. The snow is expected to change
back to a mix of light rain and light sleet by none... then end as
all light rain during the early afternoon hours as temperatures
warm back to the lower to middle 40s.

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow and sleet
will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads
and limited visibilities... and use caution while driving...
particularly on elevated bridges and overpasses.
Morning KoritheMan! Interesting weather out there!
Quoting theshepherd:
Electricity creates heat. Heat creates resistance. Buried lines cannot disapate heat like aerial. High voltage transmission lines would require very large conductors and larger generating plants to keep up with demand. Short low voltage buried distribution into subdivisions is one thing, but untill every town has it's own power plant the high voltage will stay aerial. LOL


Well said Shep, and good morning!.. I was going to say money. I was part of a citizens group working with FPL to choose a new transmission line path through Stuart. They said they were all for buried utilities, but could not cover the cost, and that there were indeed issues with burying tranmission lines.
167. IKE
New Orleans, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 11 min 56 sec ago
Light Snow
37 °F
Light Snow Rain Ice Pellets Mist

Windchill: 28 °F
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 34 °F
Wind: 18 mph from the West
Pressure: 29.83 in (Rising)
Visibility: 1.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 700 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1300 ft
Overcast 2200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 3 ft
Big SNOWFLAKES fallin at the Huey P. Long Bridge...I Love It!!
Wow,Wow..wow..Watcha think about this tkeith?

Big Stuff falling UPTOWN!!!!
Quoting theshepherd:
Electricity creates heat. Heat creates resistance. Buried lines cannot disapate heat like aerial. High voltage transmission lines would require very large conductors and larger generating plants to keep up with demand. Short low voltage buried distribution into subdivisions is one thing, but untill every town has it's own power plant the high voltage will stay aerial. LOL


All very true Shep...I've also been told by FPL reps that buried utilities are still prone to problems from flooding that would especially be an issue in coastal areas due to salt-water intrusion from storm surge. Besides the expense issue I was told that aireal is more subject to storm damage, but easy to locate and fix problems...underground - less subject to damage, but when there is a problem...dificult to locate and repair.
Quoting Patrap:
Wow,Wow..wow..Watcha think about this tkeith?

Big Stuff falling UPTOWN!!!!
It's a Blizzard in cajun country!!! LOL
172. IKE
WTF! Hattiesburg,MS....

Today
Snow...sleet...isolated thundersnow in the morning...then snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. The chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Heavy snow has been falling in Covington for a couple of hours now.

Good explanation about the high voltage lines. Speaking of power, it has been flickering a bit here in the last hour, too.

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
809 AM CST THU DEC 11 2008

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...

.A STRONG AND COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO MIX WITH
SLEET AND SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI. THE WINTRY MIX HAS CHANGED OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW...
DURING OF THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ACROSS BATON ROUGE...THE NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND BEGINNING TO CHANGE OVER ON THE
SOUTH SHORE. AND THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THIS MORNING. THE GROUND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS...AND ELEVATED ROAD
SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF TWO
INCHES ON HIGHWAYS AND ROADWAYS. MANY ACCIDENTS WERE STATE POLICE
THIS MORNING IN THE BATON ROUGE AND THIS THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST.
Apparently Baton Rouge hasn't gotten snow like this in a very very long time.
Quoting RobDaHood:


All very true Shep...I've also been told by FPL reps that buried utilities are still prone to problems from flooding that would especially be an issue in coastal areas due to salt-water intrusion from storm surge. Besides the expense issue I was told that aireal is more subject to storm damage, but easy to locate and fix problems...underground - less subject to damage, but when there is a problem...dificult to locate and repair.


I know someone that had no power for an extra week after a tree uprooted during gustav. The break in the line was some 1500 feet away from where the uprooted tree pulled on the buried lines.
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
can anyone explain why noone builds underground powerlines in Hurricane and Winter weather prone areas?????

it would save people alot of trouble like it did for me during 04 in Florida and Ike in texas


I even asked the same question a couple years ago after a major ice storm, following extreme severe weather earlier in the year (leaving over 500,000 and 1 million without power respectively) (here).
Quoting EvilKarkyBR:
Apparently Baton Rouge hasn't gotten snow like this in a very very long time.


Not since maybe 1988? I remember sledding on upside down garbage can lids at Highland Road park.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Well said Shep, and good morning!.. I was going to say money. I was part of a citizens group working with FPL to choose a new transmission line path through Stuart. They said they were all for buried utilities, but could not cover the cost, and that there were indeed issues with burying tranmission lines.
mornin' iguy...Yes sir, money says it all in one word. Just thought I would ellaborate. Safety also.
How's the bite down your way? Thinking about taking the kayak down to Hell's Bay after Christmas. Few mosquitos about now.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I even asked the same question a couple years ago after a major ice storm, following extreme severe weather earlier in the year (leaving over 500,000 and 1 million without power respectively) (here).


The benefit would be great for ice-storm prone areas...like last year about this time when almost the entire state of Oklahoma lost power after 2 days of rain at 28F.
I adored garbage can lid sledding growing up! I grew up in North Dakota, so when I felt the way things felt and the way things smelled last night when I went to bed, I knew I'd be waking up to snowl
Snow in MS and LA? How often does that happen?
Looks like we're in for some dicey weather this afternoon in East Central Florida as well.
Tornado watch and strong band of showers with front headed across the north & central parts of the state.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I even asked the same question a couple years ago after a major ice storm, following extreme severe weather earlier in the year (leaving over 500,000 and 1 million without power respectively) (here).
If you didn't have half the blog on your ignore list, you might learn something other than just how to post and repost charts...LOL
Baton Rouge, LA got a little bit of snow on Christmas Day a few years ago if memory serves, but this was actual full ground coverage. I've been outside taking pictures since 6:20. I'll have to upload some. www.wafb.com and www.2theadvocate.com are links to some of our news and publications.
185. IKE
New Orleans, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 3 min 21 sec ago
Heavy Snow
34 °F
Heavy Snow Fog

Windchill: 25 °F
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 30 °F
Wind: 12 mph from the WSW
Pressure: 29.84 in (Rising)
Visibility: 0.1 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 400 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 3 ft
Quoting theshepherd:
If you didn't have half the blog on your ignore list, you might learn something other than just how to post and repost charts...LOL


L O L!
Quoting theshepherd:
If you didn't have half the blog on your ignore list, you might learn something other than just how to post and repost charts...LOL
He probably doesn't see your post as you might be one of those (like me) on his Ignore list. LOL
Heavy snow in New Orleans...now that is rare.
...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...
OSCEOLA AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT NEAR SHORE
WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THE WEST COAST AROUND SUNRISE
AND REACH THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MID MORNING.
THIS LINE WILL THEN RACE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE WILL BRING
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS TO ROTATE WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE....ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS
MORNING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE INCH GIVEN THE RAPID STORM MOTION...WHICH
WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 50 MPH.

PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE
WEATHER TODAY AND BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION AS STORMS APPROACH.
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
IKE-Is this low deepening?We just had one heck of a storm two days ago.
Quoting txag91met:
Heavy snow in New Orleans...now that is rare.


Very. And I see it is 32 in Baton Rouge. If it doesn't warm a little, they are going to have bigger problems. These folks mostly do not have any experience driving in it and the many bridges will be just ice with snow on top of melted and then refrozen snow...in an area that has almost no road clearing equipment.

My lovely boss said to just stay home and off the roads. Yay. The subaru could surely handle it, but I have no faith in my fellow drivers.
Quoting conchygirl:
He probably doesn't see your post as you might be one of those (like me) on his Ignore list. LOL
LOL...He reads them. Fits the profile.
A pic from about 45 minutes ago in Covington:
Link



Still coming down and since then the flakes have gotten heavier. This would be a medium rain if it were rain.
194. IKE
Quoting hydrus:
IKE-Is this low deepening?We just had one heck of a storm two days ago.


Yes.
195. IKE
Jackson,MS....

Today
Snow...sleet and slight chance of rain in the morning... then snow likely in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the late morning. Snow accumulations of 3 to 8 inches. Cloudy... brisk. Highs around 40. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph. The chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
Conchy,

just getting into the edge of that soggy business, you will be too pretty soon keeping an eye on that stripe between Ft Meyers and Arcadia...
Uptown NOLA..

Wowsa..

Morning all. West wind 25 knots sustained here in Panama City beach with gusts to gale force. Five inches of rain overnight.
Ike any chance of sleet snow in Baldwin County?


Snow NOLA,Uptown 20 Minutes ago..1/2 to 3/4 sofar

Wow, so much snow. We only have a little up in the mountains which looks nice and very fitting for the season.

About the power line problem: Here in the UK we have also more aerial lines, the big transmission lines as well as the small distribution lines, but in Germany as well as in Finland and the other Scandinavian countries only the transmission lines are above the ground for the aforementioned reason (what thesheperd said)

All distribution lines are buried though. Someone mentioned that in this case every single town would have to have its own power plant but there is another solution: we have a little hut filled with transformers in every town. They take the high voltage from the transmission lines and distribute it in town at lower voltage.
The aerial transmission lines get rarely toppled over since they are built with sturdy four-post masts. The only storm hazard are branches or entire trees falling on the lines. The buried distributor lines are not prone to storms. In case of a power outage it is easy to restore the power because you only have to repair the supplying main line, the network of smaller lines underground is still intact.
Waiting for whatever this storm is to hit here...weather radio went off at 5:45 this morning - tornado watch. Wish we would get some snow here too but temps are at 70 and warming still. Would LOVE for my kids to see snow...
Heavy, wet snow, lots of it...meet pine trees unaccustomed to frozen precip.

I have been hearing some snap and crackle, hope the pop isn't next. This could get bad...
I thought it was interesting that Houston has gotten up to 20 inches of snow before, which also happens to be the greatest snowfall here as well - despite Houston being much warmer (usually).
Quoting MichaelSTL:
I thought it was interesting that Houston has gotten up to 20 inches of snow before, which also happens to be the greatest snowfall here as well - despite Houston being much warmer (usually).


Wow. Didn't know that, thanks. 20 inches would make them think about buying some road clearing equipment nowadays.
It's snowing in South Louisiana! We see this about once every 20 years!!
Morning all! Oh my gosh...SNOW! Ok, Im like a kid...but we dont get snow on coastal Texas very often! We were outside snowball fighting quite late, lol. Beautiful! But, it can be very dangerous and I hope others in the storms path fare well. IKE, and now this! Local met talked about possible correlation of a hurricane landfall followed by a snowfall in December for Texas. Prob just looking for some gab, but interesting.
CNN Live stream NOLA snow..Link


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CST THU DEC 11 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN LA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN MS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 111349Z - 111615Z

HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /1-2 INCH PER HOUR/ WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA AND MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL MS
THROUGH 18Z.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING
FROM SRN LA NEWD THROUGH MS. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS ASSOCIATED DEEPENING CLOSED LOW /200+
METER HEIGHT FALLS PER 12Z SLIDELL SOUNDING/ TRACKS ENEWD TOWARD
SWRN AL. STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION IS AIDING IN DYNAMIC
COOLING OF THE COLUMN WITHIN THE DEFORMATION AXIS...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW AND SLEET FROM W-E ACROSS LA/MS THIS
MORNING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UVVS AND SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCH PER HOUR WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

..PETERS.. 12/11/2008
Quoting RobDaHood:
Conchy,

just getting into the edge of that soggy business, you will be too pretty soon keeping an eye on that stripe between Ft Meyers and Arcadia...
Yes, the sky is quickly getting dark and ominous looking. I want SNOW! LOL
Is there a model that is rpedicting the track fo this snow. Is it expected to keep heading due east? Should I be getting my hopes up here in jacksonville, FL? LMAO
Quoting conchygirl:
Yes, the sky is quickly getting dark and ominous looking. I want SNOW! LOL


LOL - not this week, sorry. Looks like maybe this is spreading out and maybe be just a long good soaker for me...talked to sister in lakeland a bit ago and she said it was pouring...never can tell with these things.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1036 AM EST THU DEC 11 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA * UNTIL 1115 AM EST * AT 1036 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DOCTORTOWN...OR NEAR JESUP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
Come more snow pics in my set: Link

This is the view from my porch about 30 minutes ago in Covington, LA.

Rob- I know we won't get snow but wouldn't it be nice to see even sprinkles of it. I see lots of rain comin' our way too!

Loved Pats video of the snow up there - amazing!
That's not the update I was looking for Jacksonville LOL
218. P451
What an amazing storm. This is going to be one heck of an interesting winter. If this was six weeks later...we'd be talking extreme blizzard for the entire eastern seaboard!

Quoting conchygirl:
...Loved Pats video of the snow up there - amazing!


Yeah, a lot of excited people in TX and LA! Don't blame them...when it snowed here when I was a kid, it was pretty exciting...scraping it up and trying to make muddy slush balls before it melted...putting snow in the freezer...LOL

For the past week I had that really nice thing about moms posted on my blog...changed it to something funny for the guys this week...only fair. Don't throw things at me when you read it Conchy!
Coming down (Covington, LA):

220. atmoaggie

Nice!
Quoting RobDaHood:


Yeah, a lot of excited people in TX and LA! Don't blame them...when it snowed here when I was a kid, it was pretty exciting...scraping it up and trying to make muddy slush balls before it melted...putting snow in the freezer...LOL

For the past week I had that really nice thing about moms posted on my blog...changed it to something funny for the guys this week...only fair. Don't throw things at me when you read it Conchy!
I saw your lastest post out there - pretty cute! Watch out though, you are probably going to hear about it.
222 conchy
As James Brown once said "It's a man's world"
lol
I'm living in the land of confused trees again...Last week the maples dropped 90% of their leaves and the bald cypress turned brown.

Just went out to look at the sky and the maples are "flowering"...1st spring of the winter.
If someone is thinking about getting to Baton Rouge from the west, fageddaboudit. Most bridges over the Atchafalaya and Mississippi Rivers are closed.

the Advocate
That storm dumping on you guys in the south got us here in northern New Mexico a few days ago. We got 6 inches in about 6 hours.
We must be getting close to 3 or 4 inches now. With a couple of spots of standing water in the yard, thanks to yesterday's rains.

Photobucket


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM EST THU DEC 11 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SRN NORTH CAROLINA
MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL
700 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN PINES NORTH CAROLINA TO 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 950...WW 951...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS LOCATED ALONG COLD FRONT IN ERN GA/NRN
FL WILL MOVE NEWD AND LIKELY ACCELERATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
UPPER LOW IN SRN MS BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD. STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS
AND LINEAR NATURE INDICATE OF CONVECTION THAT WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT OF
LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES.
Quoting theshepherd:
222 conchy
As James Brown once said "It's a man's world"
lol
And what does he know. :)
Quoting atmoaggie:
We must be getting close to 3 or 4 inches now. With a couple of spots of standing water in the yard, thanks to yesterday's rains.

Atmo it is beautiful - all we get is rain, rain!
231. IKE
Buoy 180 NM south of SW Pass,LA....

Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 270 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 17.4 ft

5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 8.1 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.95 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.03 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 64.9 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 75.0 °F
Trying to convince Hubby that we can't POSSIBLY go to the dentist with the tornado watch, severe thunderstorm warning...we REALLY should stay home. Just say NO to root canals. Hopefully a tree will blow down and block the road out of town.
Quoting lickitysplit:
That storm dumping on you guys in the south got us here in northern New Mexico a few days ago. We got 6 inches in about 6 hours.


Taos must be open...wish I could go do that right now. I would trade this for a day at Taos anytime.
Quoting melwerle:
Trying to convince Hubby that we can't POSSIBLY go to the dentist with the tornado watch, severe thunderstorm warning...we REALLY should stay home. Just say NO to root canals. Hopefully a tree will blow down and block the road out of town.
Too funny Mel!
Quoting IKE:
Buoy 180 NM south of SW Pass,LA....

Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 270 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 17.4 ft

5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 8.1 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.95 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.03 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 64.9 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 75.0 °F


Sounds like a great day to be on the water.
Trying my hardest Conchy...REALLY I am...

Tornado vortex in our area (looked it up on the tornado map)...don't want damage but really could use a tree down in the road.
Happy Winter Everyone.We are all sitting here on the Ms Gulf Coast, waiting for our "snow"
Quoting melwerle:
Trying my hardest Conchy...REALLY I am...

Tornado vortex in our area (looked it up on the tornado map)...don't want damage but really could use a tree down in the road.
He'd just find a way around the downed tree!
Is the system, with the snow, suppose to move north before it gets to Florida?
Conchy,

B4 you take offense to Shep's remark...listen to the next 2 lines...LOL

This is a man's man's man's world
But it wouldn't be nothing
Nothing without a woman or a girl
lol Conchy! He would probably break out a chainsaw and pull the tree away.
Hello all
The weather here, now--
temp 90 f, humidity 55 %
partly cloudy
wind 8 mph east
dew pt. 72 f
heat index 98 f
visibility 15 miles

No snow storms or tornados forecast for the near future.
heheheheh
I have a wind advisory posted for Cape Cod, MA.
Flight plan has been filed

For the Endeavour Shuttle piggybacked on the 747 carrier
for flight to Barksdale AFB, Louisiana.
To track enter NASA911 at
http://travel.flightexplorer.com/trackFlight.aspx

Heads up Houstonians:
JSC flyover expected at about 12:00pm CST, and scheduled to be covered live on NASA TV.
(I do wonder what the overcast ceiling height will be?)
CRS
Mornin' Pottery,

Ya missed the Meerkat Madness party last night..came over here looking for you.
Suddenly got REALLY dark and the rain is POURING. Blowing too. Hmmmm....
247. IKE
From the Fort Walton Beach, FL. Daily-News....

Wendy Victora
Daily News

Folks in the northern part of the Florida Panhandle have a chance of seeing snow flurries this evening, though no accumulation is expected.

An upper low trying to move out of Louisiana into Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia has some snow associated with it. The Panhandle -- especially right near the Alabama border -- is on the southern fringes.



I've got 55 degrees here now...I'm 15 miles from the Alabama border...temperature will really have to drop off this afternoon.

Mobile radar....

LOL Hood. I read it all this morning. Laughter man!!
Had a busy one yesterday and last night, grandsons at the school Christmas Concert, dinner at friends, No elect. when we got home etc. You know how it goes......

All is well today, thus far.
Hmm, I just spotted this Senate Minority blog/article/report which loudly proclaims that "pro-warming" Democrats are in for a horrible shock because "650 scientists" are coming out against Global Warming Theory.

There's a link to the Washington Times which of course "supports" this claim.
In view of this, I first wonder if these articles are a strategic reaction to president-elect Obama's selection of physicist Steven Chu to head the DOE.
I notice that citations of counter-indicating weather and climatological facts are mostly from the Northern Hemisphere. OTH - and not reassuring, I see the candid admission here that the December prediction model for next season's hurricanes is consistently poor.

Any comments would be appreciated.
Quoting ArborPics:
Hmm, I just spotted this Senate Minority blog/article/report which loudly proclaims that "pro-warming" Democrats are in for a horrible shock because "650 scientists" are coming out against Global Warming Theory.

There's a link to the Washington Times which of course "supports" this claim.
In view of this, I first wonder if these articles are a strategic reaction to president-elect Obama's selection of physicist Steven Chu to head the DOE.
I notice that citations of counter-indicating weather and climatological facts are mostly from the Northern Hemisphere. OTH - and not reassuring, I see the candid admission here that the December prediction model for next season's hurricanes is consistently poor.

Any comments would be appreciated.


Sounds like those "400 scientists", most of whom are not actually scientists (esp. climate scientists) or were actually duped into signing something (many later demanded to be removed when they found out what it was for)...
re: Folks in the northern part of the Florida Panhandle have a chance of seeing snow flurries this evening, though no accumulation is expected.
ha ha ike, that's what they said about texas!! go look at pix on emms blog....better get your thermals on, man!!

jo
Pottery,

Glad to hear that today is better...Squall line going through here right now...pretty heavy rain, a tad windy, but no lightning so far...ready to yank wires if need be though.
It seems like the low is tracking further South than models was showing.....Snow could be coming further south and into the Panhandle of Florida......
254. IKE
Now
Narrow snow bands continue over southeast Mississippi moving into parts of southwest Alabama around noon. Radar is showing smaller bands closer to the southwest of the main upper system which tend to break up as they move east at 25 mph. They may bring an occasional wintry mix to parts of southwest Alabama by mid afternoon. Surface reports of moderate steady snow have been reported in parts of central Mississippi including western Stone County...with blowing snow in Bay Saint Louis. Snow has generally been melting as it comes in contact with the ground so there will not be much accumulation over time. Very cold air in the low levels is surging into the southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Limited areas of southwest Alabama this afternoon could see a wintry mix in southwest Alabama...with light snow bands entering the picture as well.
255. IKE
Now I've seen it all....I must be dreaming

OMG

Bay St Louis, Mississippi (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 57 min 56 sec ago
Blowing Snow
34 °F
Blowing Snow
Windchill: 26 °F
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 34 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 20 mph
Pressure: 29.79 in (Falling)
Visibility: 3.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds:
Overcast 900 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 23 ft
Quoting melwerle:
Suddenly got REALLY dark and the rain is POURING. Blowing too. Hmmmm....
Now, you might be able to postpone that appt. We are currently under a tornado watch.
Thats some pretty amazing weather there, Ike and Rob.
Thinking of you all, as I sweat and stay in the shade LOL.

Off to complete an Incredible, Amazing, Fantastic Mosaic Commission, for another Happy Client.

What a Jolly Life......check you all tonight. Stay warm.
heheheheh
Also, the last bit about some weather events and inaccurate hurricane forecasts is also meaningless, because that is weather, not long-term climate; for instance, compare the following (long-term global temperature record on the left plus U.S. and New York City temperatures on the right).



Even for the U.S. as a whole, yearly variations vastly swamp out any trend, it is only on the global scale that the variations are small enough to make the trend easy to see without any fancy trendline (not that the U.S. is warming much anyway, compared to the Arctic).

Also, look closely at the temperature record on the left (through 2004, see here for same graph through 2007); notice the actual values - see how much variation there is from year to year? That is due to natural variability, even the 5 year average doesn't go straight up (some skeptics think that it has to in order for anthropogenic global warming to be real but that is nonsense; think of how temperatures vary from day to day, it doesn't get steadily warmer from January to July or steadily colder from July to January, some days are warmer or colder than the trend suggests); however, the upward trend is not, except for those who think there is some mysterious force causing warming that doesn't actually exist.

For more information on the science, including how scientists came to attribute global warming to increasing levels of greenhouse gasses and ruled out natural variation, see here (the history goes back more than 150 years, the first estimate of the effects of increased levels of greenhouse gasses from human industry were made in 1896).
The snow turned into a light rain for an hour before it all stopped in Baton Rouge. Just went to a rain/sleet in Covington.

Lovely.
The Sun is shining here now.
What a morning.

Uptown NOLA

261. GBlet
Loving the snow covered palm there Pat!
262. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
The Sun is shining here now.
What a morning.

Uptown NOLA



It'll all be melted by this afternoon....yeah, it's shutting off in LA.
Quoting Patrap:
The Sun is shining here now.
What a morning.

Uptown NOLA



The audio sounds like sleet...was it?
At least you all in NO and other areas had a beautiful winter wonderland morning. Sure is odd seeing snow on the palm trees!
SCA NASA911 has departed from: Carswell - NAS Fort Worth,

.... the Space Shuttle Endeavour will fly by Johnson Space Center today, circling over JSC between 11:45 a.m. and 12:45 p.m. while mounted on a modified Boeing 747 shuttle carrier aircraft. Although a stop at Ellington Field is NOT planned, the Endeavour will fly by and be visible from Ellington Field and the Sonny Carter Training Facility before passing over JSC.

another stopover tonight (at Barksdale AFB, Louisiana) before the piggy-backed shuttle returns to Kennedy's Shuttle Landing Facility no earlier than 2 p.m. Friday.
Ad for any relation to what is happening now, what with snow along the Gulf Coast, here is a more global perspective:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Some places are warm, others are cold; that is called weather (pretty clear that the above has more warm than cold; for another comparison, October was decidedly cool in the U.S., but had record land warmth and was the second warmest overall; November looks like it was just as warm, pending the monthly update in a few days).

Sure that the people under that big red blob in Asia would love to see cooler weather (well, it is winter so it isn't actually hot).

Also, Northern hemisphere snowcover is well below average (mostly due to the aforementioned big red blob over Asia):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Even last winter, which had the greatest overall extent in the last decade, didn't have the greatest anomaly (2002, which was in the fall, so peak extent was less). The trend here is pretty clear (though the spikes confuse most people).
Great snow pics Maggie and Pat, thanks, seriously glad it isn't here, although we need it to cull the exotics.
Wow more snow for New Orleans, LA then for Cape Cod, MA. Who would've figured that?
That was sleet turning to light rain shortly after that video atmoaggie.

Was and is a weird day here.

wow did this low become the "polar express of the gulf" or what LOL

How did everyone enjoy their unexpected "snow parties"?

I enjoyed it alot especially in a region that rarely sees such a thing

PS IKE you and those around you are gonna need 2-3 layers thats what I had on and also get yourself and tell ur friends to get themselves some gloves if I learned anything from all this its that cold air and ice aren't good for bare hands but I just couldn't resist LOL

PSS RE the shepard:
makes sense but I wonder how places in Florida do get rid of the powerline heat then and they cant all be low transmission lines can they???
We have exotics here too indianrivguy,..

Is crazy to see roses with snow.
Saw some exotic tourists shaking their heads as it was snowing too.

LOL..
Wow.

Snow in New Orleans.

Now, I've really seen it all...
3 photos from walk Uptown near me





Interesting comment from Ricky's blog:

Quoting counters:
Paoconnell,

You have a good point. If you read the IPCC 4AR, you'll notice that the majority of the discussion is about precisely what you bring up - changing variability. This is really the "change" meant in the term "climate change." If you read the scientific literature dealing with climate change, you'll notice that much of the analysis - particularly climate projections - comes in the from of detailing shifting variability. In short, the most-feared consequence of global warming isn't that the globe will get warm; it's that the extremes will get more extreme. There's a greater chance for severe winters as well as severe summers; for severe droughts as well as severe floods; for more-intense hurricanes in conjunction with fewer overall tropical cyclones.

The blogosphere's fixation on "the trend" and "the wiggles" misses the nuances of this discussion occurring in the scientific community. This is because of precisely what I said earlier: the lay-person who isn't trained to think through the situation will misinterpret a record-setting severe winter as evidence against global warming rather when it should correctly be identified as a hallmark of the increased variability of the atmospheric system.

It's a good point, though. And by the way, atmospheric scientists have an especially close relationship to Chaos Theory. Edward Lorenz (arguably the founder of the field) was one of us - a meteorologist!


An interesting observation with respect to last winter is that China blamed the extreme winter not on cold but on excess warmth and moisture; of course you can't get record snowfall without precipitation or a lot of it, regardless of how cold it is:

La Nina blamed for China blizzard

(CNN) -- The recent snowstorm in China, which has stranded hundreds of thousands of people across the country and killed dozens, is related to the La Nina phenomenon, according to a Chinese weather expert

La Nina is the opposite of El Nino, which follows El Nino and occurs every few years. During La Nina, sea temperatures over eastern equatorial Pacific are lower than normal.

La Nina enhances Arctic weather systems and causes a cold winter in Asia, including in China.

As warm and moisture air from the south meets cold air in the north under freezing temperatures, snow forms.

"The warm air is very active this year," said Li Weijing, deputy director-general of the National Climate Center of China.

As a result, persistent snowstorms occur in central and western China, paralyzing the transport and electricity systems.
Short Video after the snow and while sleeting .
Poydras House Nursing Home ..Jefferson and Magazine Street.

Pat,
We saw snow way down here too! Can you imagine, the boats coming in from the GOMEX to Port Fourchon and they seeing SNOW??
277. IKE
Well...well........

'Remains appear to be Caylee' Anthony, says searcher

Walter Pacheco, Bianca Prieto and Sarah Lundy | Sentinel Staff Writer
12:42 PM EST, December 11, 2008

The EquuSearch leader said sheriff's office investigator thinks the remains belong to missing toddler Caylee Marie Anthony.

Tim Miller, the founder and director of EquuSearch, said the remains "appear to be Caylee, but with any case, we have to wait until a positive ID is made."

Orange County deputies confirmed the discovery of a young child's remains near Casey Anthony's home this morning in the area of S. Chickasaw Trail and Suburban Drive. Spokesman Jim Solomons said the remains were found in a bag by a utility worker.

The location of the discovery is less than 1/4 mile from the Anthonys' home on Hopespring Drive.
Re 273:

LOL what is that wintery sorcery!

Mother nature playing her wild tricks again I see

nice but take it all in and enjoy it cause its gonna melt pretty quickly (looks like it already has started) hurry and make a snowman like I did then store it in the freezer if you can :)
Crazy day here for sure Hurricajun

Would ya believe this is in Baton Rouge? Apparently enough to completely cover and offer up some snowboarding.

RE 280:

wow do I have snow in eyes from last night or umm... (i'm speechless)
Wow enough snow for people to snowboard in.
How do you post pictures from my computer - took some of the levee in Metairie
I looked into the claim that 650 scientists deny global warming (somebody posted it earlier), and lo and behold - it is from Inhofe, who is already well known for his fake list of 400 "scientists"! Also see that it claims that there are only 52 scientists who support global warming (in actuality, virtually all scientists do, thousands, including our very own Dr. Masters; any disagreement is only on the finer details, not the big stuff).
Quoting saintsfan06:
How do you post pictures from my computer - took some of the levee in Metairie


You need to upload them someplace on the Internet (I use ImageShack, you can upload without registering, use the "Hotlink for Websites" when posting, the code can be directly pasted into the comment box, don't put it in the Image button box or you will see code appear in your comment when it is posted); you can also upload to your Wunderphotos (at the top select Photos from "My Quick Menu") but those take too long to be approved, if you want to show then right away.
The following quotes are in reply to post # 35 which suggested that those who disagreed with man-made global warming weren't scientists.

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” - Nobel Prize Winner for Physics, Ivar Giaever.

“Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can speak quite frankly….As a scientist I remain skeptical.” - Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology and formerly of NASA who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called “among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years.”

Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” - UN IPCC Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical chemist.

“The IPCC has actually become a closed circuit; it doesn’t listen to others. It doesn’t have open minds… I am really amazed that the Nobel Peace Prize has been given on scientifically incorrect conclusions by people who are not geologists,” - Indian geologist Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia at Punjab University and a board member of the UN-supported International Year of the Planet.
“The models and forecasts of the UN IPCC "are incorrect because they only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity.” - Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico

“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” - U.S Government Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA.
Quick question.

How does one put a picture in the area of the portrait/icon and how big should it be for best results.
Thanks! Hope I did it right Levee in Metairie
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

“The models and forecasts of the UN IPCC "are incorrect because they only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity.”

That is by the way dead wrong (they do account for natural variation, if you actually ever looked at a site like this one and not the blatantly denialist fossil fuel industry funded sites), and how do they explain the following?

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Or basic physics?







Here is some history on the science, which is as well established as evolution or any other science that has been around for 150+ years (though boneheads still deny many of them). Of relevance also:

1824
Joseph Fourier calculates that the Earth would be far colder if it lacked an atmosphere.

1859
Tyndall discovers that some gases block infrared radiation. He suggests that changes in the concentration of the gases could bring climate change.

1896
Arrhenius publishes first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO2.
Saint - good job - great photos. Has your snow melted now too?
Boy, howdy... that was some crazy weather this morning. Lots of accidents here in Pinellas County...

Oh, btw, I am a returning member. I mostly lurk, but I had to weigh in on the predictions.
What are climate models?

Climate models are computer programs that apply physical laws to calculate how climate has changed in the past and may change in the future. Models range from relatively simple ones, which represent only the most essential processes at a coarse spatial resolution, to complex ones, which include many additional important interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface operating at regional scales. These models require as input information about forcings such as solar variations, volcanic activity and greenhouse gas concentrations, usually in the form of time series. They compute temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables.

One important test of climate models is to simulate past climate variability and change. When model results and paleoclimate records agree, this provides confidence that the models are reasonable representations of the real climate, and that the dominant forcings that drive climate variability and change have been identified.


Summary of Results

Simulations of the last 1000 years have been completed with several different models. Although some of the details are different, they all show several similar trends in Northern Hemisphere climate: relative warmth before the 14th century followed by cold periods between the 15th and early 19th centuries. The warming of the 20th century is, given the perspective of the previous millennium, unprecedented. This general picture agrees with the independent proxy reconstructions. Differences between the time-series are due to several factors, including uncertainties in the forcing time-series and the unpredictability of some interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land surface and sea ice.

Looking at the relative contributions of these forcings to climate change over the past 1000 years, scientists have concluded:

1. Solar and volcanic forcing have been responsible for some of the variations in Northern Hemisphere temperature over the past 1000 years.
2. Neither solar nor volcanic forcing can explain the dramatic warming of the late 20th century. Changes in these forcings during the 20th century would actually have resulted in a small cooling since 1960.
3. Only by adding the human-caused increase in greenhouse gas concentrations are the models able to explain the unprecedented warmth of the late 20th century.
293. Liann
249. ArborPics 4:43 PM GMT on December 11, 2008
Hmm, I just spotted this Senate Minority blog/article/report which loudly proclaims that "pro-warming" Democrats are in for a horrible shock because "650 scientists" are coming out against Global Warming Theory.

There's a link to the Washington Times which of course "supports" this claim.
In view of this, I first wonder if these articles are a strategic reaction to president-elect Obama's selection of physicist Steven Chu to head the DOE.
I notice that citations of counter-indicating weather and climatological facts are mostly from the Northern Hemisphere. OTH - and not reassuring, I see the candid admission here that the December prediction model for next season's hurricanes is consistently poor.

Any comments would be appreciated.



First, about consistently poor winter prediction: since they do an excellent job of hindcasting using their criteria, it means conditions are still in flux, still changing. Otherwise the predictions would be equally accurate both forward and backwards. Now that you have scientific PROOF that conditions are changing you no longer have any excuse for forecasting based on past experiences. You need to accept it that your knowledge based on past experience is obsolete and flawed. RECENT (CURRENT) experience shows that the natural weather machine is broken in a very bad way, and people need to do what is in their power to restore it and be prepared for very major damages ahead.

Secondly, stay away from the minority website sponsored by Exxon's captive senator from the oil state of Oklahoma. The minority is the minority for good reasons, having been demoted for breaking the economy, smashing the banking system, plus bankrupting the big three carmakers. Frankly, Reagan, Bush and Bush are the three presidents which made 70% of the national debt and conservatives have proven that they know NOTHING true or useful about economics. You can only pollute your mind by associating with conservatives. Bush 41 wrecked the Savings & Loans for a $700,000,000,000.00 bailout and Bush 43 wrecked the investment banks for another $700,000,000,000.00 bailout. WALL STREET has had a bailout every single day of my entire lifetime but still can't make a "profit" in a "free market"????

Thirdly, stay away from the Washington Times, a propaganda publication owned by convicted felon Sun Myung Moon, (tax dodger, money launderer) the anti-christian who proclaims himself messiah and who openly denounces Jesus as a failure. He's an insult to a large group of Americans who practice christianity and his rag is a tool to manipulate gullible minds in his favor.

I would think that losing 2.5 to 1 a month ago would have sobered you up that you picked the biggest losers. The people on SE Texas coast know what global warming means and 650 names on a minority report that nobody ever heard of before is not going to change their mind. Have they fixed the CITI bank tower windows in Houston yet after Hurricane IKE? (You know, Exxon's bank?) It was those pictures on the headlines that plunged Wall Street into the pits -- the two are connected didn't you know? Or don't you know how things are connected up?
should have posted this for the local news LOL

funny and cute isn't it

(image removed! due to too much GW talk... can't afford my little snowman to melt so he's off to Robdahood and Emmarose's blog then to the fridge)
Events further in the past can also give us insight to what is happening now and may happen in the future:

Past global warming suggests massive temperature shift in our future
mongabay.com
December 7, 2006

If past climate change is any indication, Earth could be in store for some significant global warming according to research published in the December 8, 2006, issue of the journal Science. The work suggests that climate change skeptics may be fighting a losing cause.

The study, led by Mark Pagani, associate professor of geology and geophysics at Yale, looked at an episode of rapid climate change that occurred some 55 million years ago. Known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the period was marked by a rapid rise in greenhouse gases that heated Earth by roughly 9° F (5° C), in less than 10,000 years. The climate warming caused widespread changes including mass extinction in the world's oceans due to acidification and shifts of plant communities due to changes in rainfall. The era helped set the stage for the "Age of Mammals," which included the first appearance of modern primates.

The research, based on fossil records of terrestrial plants and oceanic plankton, suggests that the world's climate is highly sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, finding that a doubling of CO2 concentrations can raise global temperatures by at least 4 ºF (2.2 ºC). Current projections show that natural background atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are expected to double around mid-century due to fossil fuel combustion.

"We can tell that the amount of carbon released to the atmosphere and ocean was more or less the same as what is available today as coal, oil, and gas," said Dr. Ken Caldeira, co-author of the study and a researcher at the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology at Stanford University in California. "The carbon heated up the Earth for over 100,000 years. If the climate was as insensitive to CO2 as the climate skeptics claim, there would be no way to make the Earth so warm for so long."

"The PETM is a stunning example of carbon dioxide-induced global warming and stands in contrast to critics who argue that the Earth's temperature is insensitive to increases in carbon dioxide," said Pagani. "Not only did the Earth warm by at least 9°F (5°C), but it did so during a time when Earth's average temperature was already 9°F warmer than today."


Of course, climate change is also a lot more than just warming, etc; CO2 causes ocean acidification, as mentioned above - which is currently happening 10 times faster than ever predicted, yet another thing that has been underestimated.
296. P451
Huge Pacific storm affecting Hawaii.

Satellite

Radar
check out post 294

sorry guys I just had to move him (the lttle snowman) cause he doesn't like GW LOL which is clearly happening right now on earth (in this blog LOL)
"Of course, climate change is also a lot more than just warming, etc; "

yup....but complex questions sometimes require complex answers...

...and we just can't have that....
hello press
we had a significant climate change in New Orleans this mornig...
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
should have posted this for the local news LOL

funny and cute isn't it

(image removed! due to too much GW talk... can't afford my little snowman to melt so he's off to Robdahood and Emmarose's blog then to the fridge)
He was really cute.
hi Keith...greetings all...
Hey press,tkeith..

Beer is cold here ,just pulled one from the Back Alley..LOL

More snow here than Chicago tonight for the Saints/Bears game..Who woulds thunk?

Neighbor leaving for Exams this am..he's from Boston and was cussing,..too.

Quoting conchygirl:
He was really cute.


(pops in one last time)

(image removed due the forecast of possible multiple hours of GW talk with a moderate chance of various arguements)

Quoting the little snowman:

Thank You!

(little snowman will be at Rob and Emma's blogs)
y'all please keep all that snow away from me....I'm allergic to it....
Quoting tkeith:
we had a significant climate change in New Orleans this mornig...


LOL... that is weather, not climate... climate is over a period of 30 years (usually) or more... I heard that it also snowed 4 years ago as well, and it happens every 4 years or so, so nothing unusual (it snowed in Houston too, but they once had 20 inches of snow, as much as the largest snowfall here). Here is a more global perspective:



Good Afternoon, It is with great interest that I follow the discussions on hurricane predictions since I live in sunny southwest Florida. Although Dr. Rice is usually in the ballpark on his perdictions, it seems somewhat premature to start predicting when we are only officially 11 days out of season. The cureent prediction effort here is the "Snowbird" migration, whichI hope will soon be in full flight. I would be interested to see some discussion of the snow season in Banner Elk since I will be headed up there soon
Some souls have no Humor tkeith..LOL

More Climatology..Xmas Day Nawlins 2004

Global Warming? What Global warming? Its snowing it New Orleans. Lol.

Wouldn't mind a white Christmas in Florida.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Global Warming? What Global warming? Its snowing it New Orleans. Lol.

Wouldn't mind a white Christmas in Florida.


I hope you were just being sarcastic, otherwise...

Maybe you should move to Russia and see what they are saying over there:



(been like that for months now, probably will remember it as the winter that wasn't in western Russia, many areas are over half a dozen degrees Celsius above normal for the past 30 days and have been continuously above normal for months in some cases)
I find this interesting coming from the Taunton, MA NWS:
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRES NR ATL 20Z SHOULD SHOOT A W FRONTAL WAVE UP THE I95
CORRIDOR EARLY FRI WITH WIND ADVY OR HIGH WIND 62F SLY GALES EAST OF
IT AND AN ICE STORM OF ONE HALF TO 1.5 INCH GLAZE TO ITS LEFT
MAXIMIZING FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO
NORTHERN ORH COUNTY AND THE MONADNOCKS OF SW NH WHERE POWER OUTAGES
ARE EXPECTED FROM HEAVY GLAZING BY 10 PM. ALREADY .25 GLAZE
WINCHENDON AND SHELBURNE MASS WITH 0.5 GLAZE PERU MASS. EVEN HARTLAND
CT WITH GLAZE AND ICING OCCURRING IN THE INFLUX OF COLDER AIR IN NE
MASS VICINITY OF I 495.

THIS PRODUCT DELIVERED TO GET THE BASIC WATCH/WARNING/ADVY INFO OUT.

MORE DETAILS LATER..
yeah it was snowing so seriously to my south last night that the bridges had to be closed

those parabolic bridges have ridiculiously significant vertical stretch factors or in other words the top is so high compared to the bottom entry and exit points that the force of gravity takes over the force of friction and the vehicle slides right down... crashing

dont believe me.... ask Emma she was on the road b4 they closed the bridges
This doesn't necessarily prove anything, but it is interesting to say the least:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
A few more examples, including a couple to show that the entire U.S. hasn't been cold (New Orleans isn't the entire U.S.... duh!):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us




(New Orleans isn't the entire U.S.... duh!):


Why yes it is..Michael,everyone knows that.

Just watch NFL football tonight.In Illinois.

Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints Thursday Night Football Link

Bears vs Saints.. should be round 23F for Kickoff.

LOL.

Enjoy the Game.
Link
The TS is keeping up maybe they'll name it soon
Here is a graph of satellite measured temperatures at 900 mb (closest to the surface, since warming is less higher up, eventually reversing to cooling into the stratosphere) since 1998; note where the latest reading is, especially in relation to the other years:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

2008 is the pink line that is currently higher than any others, since late November (you can see it was much cooler early this year, but it has warmed up as La Nina weakened; development of another La Nina would certainly drop temperatures again but only as long as it is present, of course the deniers would scream over that, although even if we had a permanent La Nina the warming trend would eventually result in new yearly records; indeed, apparently, during the Medieval Warm Period there was a permanent La Nina; the last Ice Age by contrast apparently had a permanent El Nino, so it appears that ENSO has the opposite effect for "permanent" episodes (El Nino is normally associated with warmer temperatures and La Nina colder).
Please take Global Arguements to Michael's blog...50 of us are banned from his blog and we really don't care to endure his rants if we can't respond in kind. Thanking you in advance...LOL
Quoting theshepherd:
Please take Global Arguements to Michael's blog...50 of us are banned from his blog and we really don't care to endure his rants if we can't respond in kind. Thanking you in advance...LOL


Thank you............
Quoting ncleclerc:


Thank you............


LOL... Make that 60 now on my iggie/banned/blocked email lists, who no longer exist to me... LOL!
Quoting theshepherd:
Please take Global Arguements to Michael's blog...50 of us are banned from his blog and we really don't care to endure his rants if we can't respond in kind. Thanking you in advance...LOL
Basically everyone is on his ignore so he is talking to himself! LOL
Quoting theshepherd:
Please take Global Arguements to Michael's blog...50 of us are banned from his blog and we really don't care to endure his rants if we can't respond in kind. Thanking you in advance...LOL


yeah I know I had to take my snowman off cause GW talk hurts him :( poor little guy

I'll be lurking now then or sleeping

in any case I still got other blogs to go to to talk to real people like shep here who don't annoy alot
GOM IR loop of the Departing Southern Blue Northern Low....
Courtesy of ESL by LSU Link
you been kayak fishing for Orca lately Shepard?
Quoting tkeith:
you been kayak fishing for Orca lately Shepard?
No, not since the game warden stopped me at the elavator at Gabriel's hospital as I was bringing one up. Spent the night in jail..didn't have an "Orca Stamp".
Heading to the everglades after Christmas. Easier to hide down there. lol
Quoting MichaelSTL:


You need to upload them someplace on the Internet (I use ImageShack, you can upload without registering, use the "Hotlink for Websites" when posting, the code can be directly pasted into the comment box, don't put it in the Image button box or you will see code appear in your comment when it is posted); you can also upload to your Wunderphotos (at the top select Photos from "My Quick Menu") but those take too long to be approved, if you want to show then right away.
Afternoon all.

STL, I haven't noticed the wait, but then I've been mostly posting stuff on Wunderground that's not "new weather" (i. e. I'm posting a sunrise sometime around sunset. . . . lol)
Quoting theshepherd:
No, not since the game warden stopped me at the elavator at Gabriel's hospital as I was bringing one up. Spent the night in jail..didn't have an "Orca Stamp".
Heading to the everglades after Christmas. Easier to hide down there. lol
LMAO...Outlaw!!
Hey, Shep!

New Puppy pics - my blog #385 with a link under for teefie close-up you wanted.
328 tk
But, when surfmom told me to pick on sumpin' my own size and made me swear off clubbing baby seals, I thought I was doing good...My bad, just can't win...I'll stick to hunting Tarpon in Hell's Bay lol
From Dr. Masters' entry:

2) Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic have been anomalously warm in October and November. This implies we are still in the active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995.


I just found out that is not true - the AMO index for November was only 0.055 - essentially near zero - yet the North Atlantic was still very warm (and getting even warmer as the first image shows):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

So I guess that shows the impact of global warming on North Atlantic SSTs (unless the derivation of the AMO index, which I have read to be the residual SST anomaly, after subtracting the trend, for the whole North Atlantic, also accounts for other factors)...
Observation about the abnormal warmth in the NAO; an anomaly has existed in that general area since at least Apr/May of this year. Any hurricane that made it that far north would have found sufficient fuel to keep it going, especially if it was moving fast enough. I'm not sure if Bertha passed far enough west to have enountered it. Either way, if it persists, that unusually warm water that far north could have some interesting implications.
Helloooooooooooooo. . . . .

[listens to echoes bouncing off the monitors of 100+ members . . . ]
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
LOL the kiddies in baytown are getting little "snow days" (they start later than usual (9:00am CT))

PS not gonna give an answer to how I made a snowman till I see a person guess at least

I wanna get your Post season minds working (I didn't get as much as the businesses near Broadway and TX 288)

as to why I din't get much considering the businesses are near me maybe having a lake near me as well has something to do with it?


I know this is old, but trying to get people to guess how to make snowmen is really funny for those of us who live in Michigan. LOL
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
wow did this low become the "polar express of the gulf" or what LOL

How did everyone enjoy their unexpected "snow parties"?

I enjoyed it alot especially in a region that rarely sees such a thing

PS IKE you and those around you are gonna need 2-3 layers thats what I had on and also get yourself and tell ur friends to get themselves some gloves if I learned anything from all this its that cold air and ice aren't good for bare hands but I just couldn't resist LOL

PSS RE the shepard:
makes sense but I wonder how places in Florida do get rid of the powerline heat then and they cant all be low transmission lines can they???


wimps...LOL

P.S. I had rain in MI instead... LOL

GFSx 10-Day 21 DEC Link

GFSx 10-Day loop Link


Hawaii

Forecasters at the National Weather Service issue a flash flood warning
-- Forecasters with the National Weather Service extended the flash flood warning for Oahu until 1:15 p.m. as teams deal with flooding, landslides, power outages and wind-related problems.

Here are some of the rainfall totals on Oahu from the morning.

# Rainfall Totals (2 a.m.-8 a.m. in inches) South Fork Kaukonahua Stream 11.50
# Schofield Barracks 10.16
# Makaha Stream 10.02
# Punalu`u Pump 9.66
# Poamoho #2 9.50
# Mililani 9.01
# Poamoho 8.40

-------------------
Kona storms, or Kona Lows, form in winter (November through April). These rare events are odd weather creatures (classified as cold-core lows), wandering slowly, on often unpredictable paths, and lingering for a week or more at times. Winds may be strong or light. Rainfall may be continuous or intermittent although skies are generally completely overcast. In severe cases, Kona storms have caused terrible weather, including hailstorms, thunder and lightening, waterspouts, torrential rains, high surf, and flooding. Generally, the rainiest weather occurs when the Low forms to the west of the Islands,
http://apdl.kcc.hawaii.edu/~earth/low.htm
In Northern VA everyone is hyped up about the chance of snow but I only see rain in the forecast or at most snow that won't effect school
PATRAP-I just heard about the snow down where you are.Two inch wide snowflakes falling here in McMinnville TN.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I hope you were just being sarcastic, otherwise...

Maybe you should move to Russia and see what they are saying over there:



(been like that for months now, probably will remember it as the winter that wasn't in western Russia, many areas are over half a dozen degrees Celsius above normal for the past 30 days and have been continuously above normal for months in some cases)


That was sarcasm..
with snow this far south I am suprised to see the high for tomorrow is going to be 70. We have already seen colder days than that in fort pierce,fla. we will see what tomorrow brings?
Quoting hydrus:
PATRAP-I just heard about the snow down where you are.Two inch wide snowflakes falling here in McMinnville TN.


Twas quite the scene here today.
Earliest Snowfall on record for NOLA.

Pics beaucoup here.Link
U&mmmm..December Snowflakes..

Yummy..

Why is the south getting snow?!? mother nature is taunting me she gives me rain at 40 degrees then nothing when its 5 now shes making it snow way down south just to spite me. she better make up for it latter
64 degrees and drizzling here in west palm...hope at least we have a cool christmas this year!
what all of us would enjoy..

Ok I am sooo jealous, wish it would snow here in Orlando. That truely is a beautiful sight, the dogs always go nuts when a snowfall occurs in areas that rarely see it.
Rain and 35 here...sucks.

Anyway, anyone seen the ECMWF and GFS? They both show an STS forming NE of the island in 5-7 days.
im in new orleans it was amazing snow was like a blizzard today i had about 2 inches of snow at my house
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
09:00 AM JST December 12 2008
=============================================

At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located near 13.3N 141.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 13.6N 136.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Snow fell for the South!! What are the chances for snow in NC for Christmas? Will the temps return back to cold again for the holiday? I'm glad NO got another shot of snow. Let the holidays begin!!
Speaking of going South. This Blog has really gone South since the close of hurricane season. Peace out until next cane season. Movin to another blog catered to the winter season. Stay safe and happy holidays until then.
from what i read on here earlier..a warming trend for the east is on tap for at least the next two weeks...
I know this is weather and not climate.

But this is too funny and a classic NOLA thing to do.



Al Gore snowman with his prize and some of the fear money.
OK good night all flush an ice cube down the toilet for me.
346. GeoffreyWPB 8:31 PM EST on December 11, 2008
what all of us would enjoy..


Shhhh! . . . Some of us think 68 is pretty cold enough, thankyouverymuch! . . .

To be honest, I'd much rather watch snow on TV than have to walk, drive, shovel ect. through it.

Guess I can't help believing in a green Christmas. . .
Helloo all
Its 75 f, and its forecast to get down to 73 !!
Winter is here, big time.
LOL
359. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Helloo all
Its 75 f, and its forecast to get down to 73 !!
Winter is here, big time.
LOL

Winter...lol
Hi DDR. This is great weather. Nice night too. How you doing ?
looks to me like some blocking going on there in those maps .
oh me the venture continue over the climate issue.
People will adapt ,the climate will adapt ,the earth will still turn and the sun still shine.
We'll unless the opposite of the theorist say ;Global warming.
Can I introduce you to a theory;It is simply called liquid Motion.
I shall not tell you anynore about it.You Global warmest 'Go and look at it apply it to your theories,you might find that the reason behind the climate is the sun and moon .
362. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Hi DDR. This is great weather. Nice night too. How you doing ?

I'm just fine,recently got internet,after some heavy showers early this week,yea im enjoy the december sunshine,have you noticed some poui trees flowering already,strange isnt it?
post 361. You dont say.
Yeah, DDR, they are early. Have some flowers on the pink poui in my garden too. Not many. Not dropping leaves yet though.Although, the Imortelle dropped lots 2 weeks ago. I wonder why ??
365. DDR
I think global warming is changing our climate,i read that the caribbean region will get less rainfall in coming years,maybe stronger storms though.
Quoting dewfree:
looks to me like some blocking going on there in those maps .
oh me the venture continue over the climate issue.
People will adapt ,the climate will adapt ,the earth will still turn and the sun still shine.
We'll unless the opposite of the theorist say ;Global warming.
Can I introduce you to a theory;It is simply called liquid Motion.
I shall not tell you anynore about it.You Global warmest 'Go and look at it apply it to your theories,you might find that the reason behind the climate is the sun and moon .


I think you need to really read up on the science (this is a good starting point), not believe some crackpot theory (the moon?! LOL!); as for the sun:



Really, I am just totally sick of all of these snide, derisive comments suggesting that scientists have no clue what is going on... when in actuality they do, and as early as the early 1800s... IMO, just like those who say evolution or any of the other established sciences are fraud (also stuff like the earth is flat, 9/11 was a conspiracy, the moon landings were faked, etc)...
The so called skill in those models and usage of ,is no more then past record , . Proof of what will happen has already happened.

look into the geological records.
If you do not tell them then the rocks will cry out.
368. DDR
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I think you need to really read up on the science (this is a good starting point), not believe some crackpot theory (the moon?! LOL!); as for the sun:



Really, I am just totally sick of all of these snide, derisive comments suggesting that scientists have no clue what is going on... when in actuality they do, and as early as the early 1800s... IMO, just like those who say evolution or any of the other established sciences are fraud (also stuff like the earth is flat, 9/11 was a conspiracy, the moon landings were faked, etc)...

Sometimes people find it hard to swallow the facts...
DDR, there are lots of theories. But really, no one knows for sure, what the weather will do, with rising temps. More severe storms would be my guess, but will rising temps create more shear? I think it might. Will rising temps cause more SAL ? I think so too. And that could possibly snuff out Atl. storms.
Its all going to be very interesting.
I'm out.
Have a safe one, all.
Quoting dewfree:
The so called skill in those models and usage of ,is no more then past record , . Proof of what will happen has already happened.

look into the geological records.
If you do not tell them then the rocks will cry out.


Scientists have in fact looked at past climate change to determine how it can change and what caused past changes; for the most part, changes occurred relatively slowly over thousands of years. Except for several events in which very rapid changes occurred, including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (dinosaur-killing asteroids and supervolcanoes and the like can also cause sudden changes, but that isn't relevant today unless one goes off). The ice age cycles are caused by slow changes in the Earth's orbit over tens of thousands of years, also pretty much irrelevant for the timescales of current concern (the current interglacial peaked about 6,000 years ago, so the climate should be cooling right now, and it did up to the early 1900s).
372. DDR
Quoting pottery:
DDR, there are lots of theories. But really, no one knows for sure, what the weather will do, with rising temps. More severe storms would be my guess, but will rising temps create more shear? I think it might. Will rising temps cause more SAL ? I think so too. And that could possibly snuff out Atl. storms.
Its all going to be very interesting.
Indeed,its going to get interesting in years to come,That flood that crippled western Trinidad,i dont think that was a normal late November precipitation event,the local met office seemed to agree.
Quoting pottery:
DDR, there are lots of theories. But really, no one knows for sure, what the weather will do, with rising temps. More severe storms would be my guess, but will rising temps create more shear? I think it might. Will rising temps cause more SAL ? I think so too. And that could possibly snuff out Atl. storms.
Its all going to be very interesting.


It should be noted that even if shear and SAL do increase, warmer water would increase the MPI, and there has been an apparent increase in the intensity of the strongest storms due to warmer water (globally, not just the Atlantic; this is only for storms that were mainly limited by MPI, not shear or other factors, other storms showed little trend). Of course, it is harder to predict what will happen to the number of storms due to the factors you mentioned, and you don't hear that mentioned much for that reason.

Related to this is the observation that the AMO value for November was near zero, yet the Atlantic is still very warm (as mentioned by Dr. Masters, who attributed it to the AMO; see comment 331 for details), suggesting that the current situation fully shows the non-AMO related warming - it would have to go significantly negative just to cancel it out and bring near average SSTs.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
12:00 PM JST December 12 2008
===============================================

At 12:00 PM JST, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located near 13.6N 141.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 13.6N 136.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Quoting pottery:
DDR, there are lots of theories. But really, no one knows for sure, what the weather will do, with rising temps. More severe storms would be my guess, but will rising temps create more shear? I think it might. Will rising temps cause more SAL ? I think so too. And that could possibly snuff out Atl. storms.
Its all going to be very interesting.


I find the theory that global warming will result in increased hurricane activity faulty at best. Rising air temperatures will lead to warmer SSTs, which will in turn lead to the development of convection, which will in turn cause shear. I also agree with you on the SAL thing.

What I think global warming will do, however, is cause an increase in the number of intense hurricanes that develop. In spite of the possibility of vertical shear increasing with warmer SSTs, and SAL increasing with warmer air temperatures, there will always be brief periods where shear and SAL will relax enough to allow a significant hurricane to develop. With more heat energy, the hurricanes that do develop will have a much greater chance to be as strong as the most notorious storms we know of (Andrew, Camille, Allen, Rita, Katrina, Wilma, Gilbert, etc.)
Quoting pottery:
Helloo all
Its 75 f, and its forecast to get down to 73 !!
Winter is here, big time.
LOL
Hear hear!

LOL
Check out this example of the fossil fuel industry's greenwashing; "clean coal"... LOL
Quoting pottery:
DDR, there are lots of theories. But really, no one knows for sure, what the weather will do, with rising temps. More severe storms would be my guess, but will rising temps create more shear? I think it might. Will rising temps cause more SAL ? I think so too. And that could possibly snuff out Atl. storms.
Its all going to be very interesting.
What I've heard that makes the most sense to me so far re. GW and TC activity is fewer storms, but increased intensity. This suggests we'll still cycle through the smaller patterns (ENSO, NAO, PAO, etc.) with the natural variation they bring, but will be likely to see the average number of cat. 3 - 5 storms increase over the long term. It's hard to tell, though, since the limited data we have doesn't provide much insight into the worldwide incidence of TCs. . .


Wow! The most intense rain is now happening over New Providence, when there's barely a wisp of heavy cloud in the area!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisories #3
T2008-22 DOLPHIN
15:00 PM JST December 12 2008
===============================================

At 15:00 PM JST, Tropical Storm Dolphin (1000 hPa) located near 13.6N 140.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts up to 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 9 knots.

Gale-force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in north quadrant
120 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 13.7N 136.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 13.2N 132.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 13.3N 130.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
well no snow last night not really surprising considering the temp never went below 37. So no two hour delay but I was expecting that but what really irks me it that after 2 days of rain and the temperature never allowed it to snow it will finally drop below 32 when it stops raining.
TS27 is strengthening, new trend. I think 60-80mph is the range of max intensity but I have been wrong on Wpac storms before.
Morning from Wilmington
52F with light SW winds
Partly cloudy and forecast to remain that way
Temp will rise to 56 during the day
369. pottery "Will rising temps cause more SAL ? I think so too. And that could possibly snuff out Atl. storms."

Dr.Masters "The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is a layer of dry, dusty Saharan air that rides up over the low-level moist air over the tropical Atlantic...
...The level of drought experienced in the northwestern Sahel...is the key factor...in determining how much dust gets transported over the Atlantic..."
From today's blog
"...before 1995, it was observed that high rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa was correlated with increased Atlantic hurricane activity.
However, when the current active hurricane period began in 1995, the correlation stopped working. Drought conditions occurred in the Sahel, but Atlantic hurricane activity showed a major increase..."
384. IKE
Check out the 00Z ECMWF....out in the Atlantic....NE of Puerto Rico....a December system? Link
385. IKE
6Z GFS shows it too....Link
386. JRRP
Link
Link
Link
TS near PR
388. IKE
Well.....


It snows in New Orleans one day and the next day several computer models show a significant system in the Atlantic....heading north of PR.

WTF?????????

This is why I love the weather....the change in it...it doesn't stay the same.....
This is why I love the weather....the change in it...it doesn't stay the same.....

Absolutely Ike...I love it too...never a boring subject for too long.

390. IKE
Quoting vortfix:
This is why I love the weather....the change in it...it doesn't stay the same.....

Absolutely Ike...I love it too...never a boring subject for too long.



Agree...there's always something going on.

Call me a wishcaster...I'm rooting for Rene to form and harm no one.
391. IKE
Looking ahead from the latest San Juan,PR discussion...

Looking ahead...strong low pressure system currently affecting
the eastern United States will move steadily northeast during the
next 48+ hours and is expected to push its associated cold front
across the southwest Atlantic and near the local area Monday
through Wednesday. At the same time...models still suggesting the
development of deep layered low pressure northeast of the local
islands Monday through at least Thursday of next week...and with
surface low pressure possibly dumb-belling back toward the local
area. Thus...there is the potential for increasingly active
weather next week but the details remain to be clarified.
392. IKE
Shear is low out there.....




Think I see the area....
Not impossible.. Looks like a wave + the tail of that front, which still has alot of energy to it. Ways out, have to see if we get some persistance
394. IKE
Quoting Skyepony:
Not impossible.. Looks like a wave + the tail of that front, which still has alot of energy to it. Ways out, have to see if we get some persistance


Could start out as a ST system and then transition to purely tropical. I can see it happening...low shear...high pressure strengthening....may take a couple of days to get going.
395. IKE
From the Jackson,MS. extended discussion....

Overall...no
strong/severe thunderstorm or heavy rain events are anticipated next week given
the dominance of the upper ridge over the Gulf and Gulf Coast
region.
396. IKE
I had 3.58 inches of rain from Wednesday through yesterday afternoon.

Crestview,FL. had nearly 6 inches of rain.
Considering the trends of December storms over the last 15 years, definitely not impossible.
ok...i just can't resist...

DO YOU THINK IT MIGHT HIT SOUTHERN FLORIDA? OMG...SHOULD I START PACKING????

ok...I'm done...just couldn't resist it since we heard it SOOOO many times this year...

oh, btw, GOOD MORNING.
Gfs & CMC are calling for straight up~ warm core. Have to take a look at how much energy that wave has.


NOAA's Nov US wrap up is out.

Morning Mel~ LOL, Oh defeniately, what ever excuse you need to head north to play in a little snow.
GM all,from stormy new england,depending on where you live determines what type of weather.
LOL TS DOLPHIN!!!! (sorry couldn't resist)
403. IKE
Quoting melwerle:
ok...i just can't resist...

DO YOU THINK IT MIGHT HIT SOUTHERN FLORIDA? OMG...SHOULD I START PACKING????

ok...I'm done...just couldn't resist it since we heard it SOOOO many times this year...

oh, btw, GOOD MORNING.


LOL.....all of those type bloggers are nowhere to be found....I guess....:)))
Couldn't resist Skypony...after hearing JFV ask a zillion times this year, I just couldn't keep from typing it.

I would LOVE to head north and play in the snow though - was praying for some of it here...if it can happen in NOLA, hey, it could happen in Savannah. What I don't get is every time it rains, it's in the high sixties/seventies here...then it's totally clear and it's in the 30s overnight. Need it all to come together to get some white stuff. My kids have never seen snow since they were born in CA and then we moved here. How far north do we have to go to go play?

Hey NE hows things up your way?

I got hammered

3/4" of ICE
no power
multiple trees down on my property
multiple limbs down on the house
power supposedly out till midnight tomorrow and the minimum

so much for a rain storm =(
406. IKE
Quoting Bonedog:
Hey NE hows things up your way?

I got hammered

3/4" of ICE
no power
multiple trees down on my property
multiple limbs down on the house
power supposedly out till midnight tomorrow and the minimum

so much for a rain storm =(


Sorry to read that.

And that ends my desire for winter weather...
Yea IKE I LOVE winter weather just not the ICE why couldnt it get a few degrees colder and give me snow instead or hell a few degrees warmer and just keep it all rain
Hmm... Met Office withdraws the snow warnings.

But GFS is adamant on blizzards tomorrow.
409. GBlet
Good morning everyone! Bone, at least you were prepared! Were the people prepared or do they ignore warnings like so many seem to do. I wish more people would pay attention and try harder to take care of themselves.
Heavy constant rain right now with some strong winds in gusts.
GB there were no warnings for this ice storm unfortunatly. The had a winter weather advisory for light freezing rain with change over to snow ice accumulation less then 1/4 inch snow 1 to 2 inches

Instead we had 1/2 by 10pm lost power at 11:30 woke up at 4am to the tree in our yard snaping like a twig and walking outside and staring at 3/4 inches of ice on everything and sounds of cracking and snapping all over the place.

It caught everyone by surprise in my neighborhood. The 2 week supply is just what I
normally do anyways.
412. GBlet
Could someome please bring the blog an ecspresso, make that a double!
Bone,streets are flooded,but stayed right around 33 so no icing,west of us about 30 miles,its bad,power lines down tree branches falling all over the place,around Worcester.
When can we expect the warm up to come over the GOM and the atlantic states?

I heard Dec 13-17

looks like we might not see a white xmas after all calls for a warm period to continue

someone verify this and correct me if im wrong
415. GBlet
Bone, we get the same thing here! I'm kinda like you, I just try to stay prepared, to the amusement of my spouse and friends.
416. IKE
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:
When can we expect the warm up to come over the GOM and the atlantic states?

I heard Dec 13-17

looks like we might not see a white xmas after all calls for a warm period to continue

someone verify this and correct me if im wrong


Should start Sunday.

Looks like it's limited to the southern and SE USA in the 6-10 day outlook....

Sorry to hear about the flooding. Sounds like Worcester got nailed liek we did. ooking for news articles or reports from the areas nothing really. Guess they are all still in Oh F@#$ mode at droping the ball
okay now I know theres a problem when it snows here in Houston and a "blizzard" happens in New Orleans (looked like it on the videos I saw) and everyone else in the "snowing" parts of the US gets... rain?!

PS thanks IKE
Ears are popping
Bone,flooded streets I can deal with,the ice you are getting can be a nightmare
421. IKE
NEW BLOG!