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Act I, Scene I, Tropical Depression One of the Hurricane Season of 2010

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:57 AM GMT on June 26, 2010

Act I, Scene I, Tropical Depression One of the 2010 hurricane is at hand. The storm is already bringing heavy rains to northern Honduras, where 3.78" fell at Puerto Lempira, on the coast near the Nicaragua border. Recent satellite images show continued development of TD 1's heavy thunderstorm activity, and this depression appears to be a lock to intensify into Tropical Storm Alex by Saturday morning. I'll save a more detailed analysis for Saturday morning, and merely post some historical data on how similar storms have behaved over the past twenty years.

History of storms similar to TD 1
Dr. Jonathan Vigh of the National Center for Atmospheric Research has put together a brief synopsis of tropical cyclones (1989-2008) which formed near NW Honduras or east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or developed while over the Yucatan, or storms which were already formed but later hit the Yucatan Peninsula. Storms which formed late in the season and recurved into Cuba were not examined. Out of the 19 storms which hit the Yucatan, 8 went on to make a second Gulf Coast landfall in Mexico, 5 hit the U.S. Gulf Coast, and 6 died after hitting the Yucatan. A few storms formed while over the Yucatan and went in various directions. He makes a few notes about how passage over the Yucatan changed the radius of maximum winds (RMW) of the storms.

Storms that hit the Yucatan, then hit Mexico on the west side of the Gulf of Mexico:
Diana 1990: Developed E of Nicaragua, hit Yucatan as tropical Storm (TS), hit near Tampico as a hurricane. Normal decrease in RMW during intensification to hurricane: RMW droped from ~40 n mi to 15 n mi.



Gert 1993: Traveled as TD over Nicaragua, became a TS and then hit Belize, hit near Tampico as a hurricane. RMW 30-35 n mi during intensification.

Roxanne 1995: Formed east of Nicauragua, hit near Cozumel as hurricane, did some loops and then died in Bay of Campeche. RMW dropped from 30 n mi to 10 n mi before first Yucatan hit, then became very large for a day or two, then contracted down to 3 n mi, then became large again (>50 n mi), then contracted once more before storm died. Was doing several loops in Bay of Compeche during this time.

Dolly 1996: Formed west of Jamaica, hit south of Cozumel as hurricane, then hit MX as a hurricane. RMW increased from 7 to 40 n mi before Yucatan landfall, then afterwards decreased to 13 n mi as the storm intensified before 2nd landfall.

Keith 2000: Developed off NE Honduras, hit Belize as major hurricane, weakened to TD, then redeveloped and hit MX coast as hurricane. RMW decreased to 9 n mi before the rapid intensification, then increased to about 25 nm mi before landfall. Increased to 30 n mi by second landfall.

Emily 2005: Hit Yucatan as major hurricane, hit S of Brownsville as a hurricane. RMW increased from ~10 n mi before landfall, to about 30 n mi after Yucatan crossing, then decreased back down to 10-15 n mi by second landfall.

Stan 2005: Formed just SE of Cozumel, hit near there as TS, weakend to TD then shifted S and hit Bay of Campeche coast as hurricane, caused massive flooding. After Yucatan crossing, RMW decreased from ~40 n mi to about 5 n mi before 2nd landfall - normal progression.

Dean 2007: through Caribbean as hurricane, hit just N of Belize as major hurricane, hit near Tampico as hurricane. RMW was about 13 n mi before Yucatan landfall, then >40 n mi after before shrinking to 28 n mi by 2nd landfall.

Storms that hit the Yucatan, then hit the U.S. Gulf Coast:
Isidore 2002: Hurricane south of Cuba, hit W tip of Cuba then deflected into N Yucatan, inner core wiped out, then hit LA as a gigantic TS. RMW ~7 n mi before
Yucatan landfall, then off the scale afterward.

Bill 2003: Formed after traveling over Yucatan, hit LA as TS. Large RMW dropped to 12 n mi by LA landfall.

Claudette 2003: TS south of Hispianola, grazed tip of Yucatan as TS, hit near Corpos Christi as hurricane. RMW increased to >40 n mi BEFORE Yucatan landfall, then dropped to 20 - 35 n mi range afterward.

Cindy 2005: Hit Yucatan as TD, became TS day later, hit LA as hurricane. Little data, but RMW was 15-30 n mi by landfall.



Wilma 2005: Spent about a day over Yucatan, weakened and became very large, but RMW was little changed: 30-35 n mi before and after (eventually with much larger outer RMW).

Storms which died after hitting the Yucatan:
TD 8 1994 Formed near NE Honduras coast, hit Belize, died

Kyle 1996 Hit Belize as TS, died.

Katrina 1999 Developed E of Nicaurgua, hit as TS, hit Belize as TD, died

Chantal 2001 TS across Caribbean, hit Yucatan, deflected southward and died.

Iris 2001 Hurricane across Caribbean, hit Belize and died.

Arthur 2008 Formed just before hitting Belize as TS, died.

Storms that developed over the Yucatan:
Opal 1995: Developed over Yucatan, underwent rapid intensification, got a tight inner core, then weakened and hit FL as major hurricane of normal size. RMW was actually very small (5 n mi) a day after coming off the Yucatan, but increased to be quite large (25-35 n mi) before the rapid intensification period commenced and brought it back down to 7 n mi. RMW increased rapidly to >40 n mi right before landfall.



Gordon 2000: Developed over Yucatan, became hurricane then hit FL as TS north of Tampa. RMW increased from 5 n mi before Yucatan landfall, to 40 n mi afterward, then decreased back to 3 n mi during the subsequent intensification. Made landfall with RMW of 35 n mi.

Larry 2003: Formed after crossing top of Yucatan, hit south shore of Bay of Campeche as TS, died.

Gert 2005: Formed in Bay of Campeche after traveling over Honduras and Yucatan, hit MX as TS.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


if it is the center then.... it is heading much more north then west and is heading for the northern half of the Yucatan


I'm actively waiting for one of the WU Guru's to speak up.

I hope it's not the center. That would mean the whole game just changed and all the previous tracks can be thrown away.

1503. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Ike, your gut tells you ...


BOC....maybe extreme northern Mexico.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Heh, Ike was going to Miami as a strong CAT 4 at first.. bet that scared a few!


Oh yeah it did. But that would scare anybody.
1505. IKE
...ALEX HEADING TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
7:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 26
Location: 17.0°N 85.3°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Quoting Fl30258713:


I'm actively waiting for one of the WU Guru's to speak up.

I hope it's not the center. That would mean the whole game just changed and all the previous tracks can be thrown away.




I do not think we will know till the recon gets in there
1507. IKE
Moved .1N and .4W....
Quoting IKE:
...ALEX HEADING TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
7:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 26
Location: 17.0°N 85.3°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: WNW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb


I'm really confused with their intensity.. How can all this 50 mph + data be wrong?
Do any of you think the trough will get stronger and pull it more Northerly?
1510. jpsb
Anything south of Corpus works for me, sorry Corpus.
TS ALEX might stall agasin today and maybe hit that northerly conponents and maybe not even make landfall in yucatan
Quoting IKE:
Moved .1N and .4W....


YUP WNW
NHC just picked my center location too
1514. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I'm really confused with their intensity.. How can all this 50 mph + data be wrong?


Conservative...they'll probably up it after recon gets back in there. Should be making landfall around midnight+/-
1515. centex
They keeped motion at WNW or 285.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:



I do not think we will know till the recon gets in there


I think a few more satellite loops will tell us.

It should be obvious soon.


Probably further north a couple hundred miles, but thats how the models are trending it looks like.
update from Roatan. rain steady all night. lots of thunder but not much wind. right now it is very dark and raining and the wind has picked up but still not much more than 15mph out of the ne with a few heavier gusts. will update more later. probably go outside and take a photo of out over the sea.
If you look at the westernmost outer bands, which are west of Yucatan, in the BoC, they're streaming north east. So why wouldn't Alex do likewise when he clears Yucatan?

Quoting StormW:


Rapid deepening
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Hurricane Charley nearing landfall after its rapid deepening phase

Rapid deepening, also known as rapid intensification, is a meteorological condition that occurs when the minimum sea-level atmospheric pressure of a tropical cyclone decreases drastically in a short period of time. The National Weather Service describes rapid deepening as a decrease of 42 millibars in less than 24 hours.[1] However, this phrase is liberally applied to most storms undergoing rapid intensification.

Necessary conditions

In order for rapid deepening to occur, several conditions must be in place. Water temperatures must be extremely warm (near or above 30°C, 86°F), and water of this temperature must be sufficiently deep such that waves do not churn deeper cooler waters up to the surface. Wind shear must be low; when wind shear is high, the convection and circulation in the cyclone will be disrupted. Usually, an anticyclone in the upper layers of the troposphere above the storm must be present as well — for extremely low surface pressures to develop, air must be rising very rapidly in the eyewall of the storm, and an upper-level anticyclone helps channel this air away from the cyclone efficiently


I know I caught it after I posted it. I should have rephrased. I do think hurricane later today or by 5am tomorrow at the latest.
Quoting RecordSeason:
Ya'll are fooling your selves if you don't think this is going to be a major.

GFDL took it to 96.5kts near Galveston...and that is with old data. Get ready for Ike's dad.

All the models suck though.

New HWRF takes it to 964mb, but shows weak winds...which is a joke...


The models continue to have terrible initializations because they show Darby as either nothing at all, or a mere thunderstorm.

Do not believe the westward leaning tracks, they are an exaggeration, if not completely impossible at this point.

Yes we will only believe the ones you want us to believe
Quoting EasttexasAggie:


My difference was my last pine tree fell in Ike, and the other ones fell during Rita. T&P for my pine trees along with my master bath bedroom.

Dang I miss that whirlpool tub.


We lucked out with Ike. One of the 2 giant pines fell away from the house. And (Thank God) missed the neighbor behind us. Had the remaining one taken down last March. I thought the neighbors were going to throw us a party. They kept insisting to pay part of it. Lol. We said no of course. We started a trend next door and across the street have leveled their giants too. Rita put 90ft of oak tree through our house. We don't live there anymore. But I miss my big tub too. Lol.
1527. guygee
Quoting yonzabam:
If you look at the westernmost outer bands, which are west of Yucatan, in the BoC, they're streaming north east. So why wouldn't Alex do likewise when he clears Yucatan?

Those bands are mostly high clouds caught up in the the anti-cyclonic flow over Alex.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


There you all go this is what the models are seeing.


So far NHC not showing higher than Tropical Storm even far into the GOM.
This area of Mexico/South Texas could probably use a good soaking.
Okay, thanks.
alex reminds me of felix just before becomming a hurricane right after it passed the southern most islands of the caribbean
It may be that I don't know what I'm looking at, but I'd swear Alex is sped up and moving NW-NNW
1534. P451
GFS:



GFDL:



HWRF:



NGPS:



CMC:

Quoting roatangardener:
update from Roatan. rain steady all night. lots of thunder but not much wind. right now it is very dark and raining and the wind has picked up but still not much more than 15mph out of the ne with a few heavier gusts. will update more later. probably go outside and take a photo of out over the sea.


Stay safe. Thanks for the update :)
Quoting Chicklit:


So far NHC not showing higher than Tropical Depression even far into the GOM.


What? Didn't understand your comment as the NHC shows right back to TS just after entering gulf.
1538. islagal
any thoughts on Isla Mujeres, off of Cancun...should we board up or wait?
Quoting islagal:
any thoughts on Isla Mujeres, off of Cancun...should we board up or wait?


Good so far!
Holy cold cloudtops batman


This image scared me any new news on Alex?
Quoting P451:
GFS:



GFDL:



HWRF:



NGPS:



CMC:



Looks like we'll at least get wet up here (UPPER TX COAST) if that pans out. We had the outter bands of Dolly here as well.
1543. IKE
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Yes we will only believe the ones you want us to believe


lol.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

This image scared me any new news on Alex?


OUch!!!
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
alex reminds me of felix just before becomming a hurricane right after it passed the southern most islands of the caribbean

Felix had the whole Caribbean; this one is in a more enclosed space.
good morning wunderground
I like that the models are agreeing more west. Not that I wish any storm on anyone, but with Katrina still to fresh on our minds and the oil just south of us, I just don't want any storms near us. Hope it weakens for whoever is in Alex's path.
Hey all4h...I saw that wave this morning.
Holy Blobova!
That may be our next CV invest.


Re Post 1535:
Sorry, corrected that...Tropical Storm, Storm!
Quoting P451:
GFS:



GFDL:



HWRF:



NGPS:



CMC:



Looks like the only model forecasting the ridge to build back in strong enough to push it into central Mexico is the GFS. The CMC and GFDL go quite high with this system, the GFS makes it a potent system off the Yucatan.
1524:

Whatever.

How can you trust a model that starts off using Data that treats an entire category 3 hurricane as if it simply doesn't exist?

That's a joke.

GFS is insistent on a East Atlantic storm. Last four model cycles:


Quoting RecordSeason:
1524:

Whatever.

How can you trust a model that starts off using Data that treats an entire category 3 hurricane as if it simply doesn't exist?

That's a joke.


3 words...blah..blah..blah
1553. SLU




EPAC - 4 ATL - 1
Quoting Chicklit:


So far NHC not showing higher than Tropical Storm even far into the GOM.
This area of Mexico/South Texas could probably use a good soaking.

I hope that's all they get. What effects will Alex have on the oil spill, clean up and craft doing the fix?
1556. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looks like the only model forecasting the ridge to build back in strong enough to push it into central Mexico is the GFS. The CMC and GFDL go quite high with this system, the GFS makes it a potent system off the Yucatan.



ECMWF
Quoting SLU:




EPAC - 4 ATL - 1


I think this is the start of the comeback in the ATL. I have a feeling, the final score will be ATL 15 - EPAC 10
Alex is 30 hours from landfall as it speed decreasing slightely it could landfall as a 70 MPH storm.
I believe Alex is a hurricane


NavySite

Have a great day everyone.
1563. IKE
*Grabs popcorn bag...slings in microwave*
1564. P451
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looks like the only model forecasting the ridge to build back in strong enough to push it into central Mexico is the GFS. The CMC and GFDL go quite high with this system, the GFS makes it a potent system off the Yucatan.


Each model seems to pick up on some sort of a hitch after it exits the Yuc.

The CMC is most pronounced with this almost looking Opal like for a moment before resuming the general WNW track.

So something is happening there. Is that the trough that is expected to dig down?

A little scary there. The models all hint at that momentary change in course but then they all resume WNW as if the trough just won't be able to pick the system up.

Yet this far out it's something to watch. Storm goes a bit more north, trough digs a bit more south - and we may have a problem. (In regards to the system maybe getting picked up and hitting the central Gulf coast ---- oil slicks hit.)

I know all eyes are on Alex but do any of the reliable computer models show any development of additional areas of interest in the next week? The tropical wave off the coast of Africa or the wave currently in west central Africa maybe?
Quoting cajunkid:
I believe Alex is a hurricane

And why do you believe that???
1567. SLU
1568. tkeith
*passes Ike a Dr. Pepper*....
1569. P451
Quoting StormW:


Do you know how to read steering layers forecast maps?


Don't waste your precious time on such people, Storm.

TS/01L/ALEX
MARK
17.2N/85.6W
TRACK
17.3N/85.8W
17.4N/86.1W 01L/H/C1
17.5N/86.7W
17.6N/86.9W
17.8N/87.3W
18.1N/87.8W
(STOP)
Quoting RecordSeason:
1552:

Well then, you're a moron.

If you trust a model that starts with bad data, you're about the dumbest thing alive.

Sorry, it's just true.

Please refrain from name calling... I just don't believe your alarmist ideals... sit back and wait until the people that know what they're talking about speak... a few have already but you ...are not one of them...
ignore..poof....
Quoting IKE:
*Grabs popcorn bag...slings in microwave*


Ain't it a little too early for popcorn?
1574. SLU
Quoting AussieStorm:


I think this is the start of the comeback in the ATL. I have a feeling, the final score will be ATL 15 - EPAC 10


A scoreline of only 15 - 10? .. i'll certainly take that this year!
1575. IKE
*fills glass with ice*
This thing has pretty good outflow going on right now
Quoting yonzabam:
If you look at the westernmost outer bands, which are west of Yucatan, in the BoC, they're streaming north east. So why wouldn't Alex do likewise when he clears Yucatan?

Quoting StormW:


Because, that is the outflow pattern at 300-200 mb level.
Small hot towers firing in the CDO.



1578. P451
Quoting YourCommonSense:


Ain't it a little too early for popcorn?


Yes.

However it is never too early for a Gin and Tonic!


Heading out to tinker in the yard. Have a good day everyone!

Jesus Christ, I go to bed for 4 hours, and I wake up with Alex looking like a hurricane!?

Anyone have the latest T#s?
Quoting AussieStorm:

And why do you believe that???


because he had an eye between 7 & 8 UTC
40 mph winds in Grand Cayman and very heavy rain now.
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Do any of you think the trough will get stronger and pull it more Northerly?


I do! In fact, I feel it may hook NE to the LA/FL panhandle at the last moment.
Quoting Comradez:
Jesus Christ, I go to bed for 4 hours, and I wake up with Alex looking like a hurricane!?

Anyone have the latest T#s?


26/0545 UTC 16.8N 84.4W T2.0/2.0 01L

Tell me if im nuts here( I am rather new at this) but, the steering layer that would push it across the Yucpen seems to be weakening a little while the storm is moving into these currents very slowly. Are the models missing something or am I?

Seems like every minute that goes by without a major shift to a W movement we lose a small chance of it going completely across the Yuc.

1586. jpsb
Quoting RecordSeason:
1552:

Well then, you're a moron.

If you trust a model that starts with bad data.
A generically true statement, but I don't think hurricanes contribute much to steering currents, unless you are a sailboat, so Darby should not have to great an effect on Alex guidance.
LOOK AT THE MAP SEE THE ARROWS THATS THE WAY ITS GOING NOT ROCKET SCIENCE
1588. Hhunter
Quoting Chicklit:


So far NHC not showing higher than Tropical Storm even far into the GOM.
This area of Mexico/South Texas could probably use a good soaking.


honestly until we get all of our grain cut and cotton picked we would prefer to not have a hurricane
1589. tramp96
Quoting AussieStorm:


I think this is the start of the comeback in the ATL. I have a feeling, the final score will be ATL 15 - EPAC 10
I'm sure the blog will supply the play by play
Quoting cajunkid:


because he had an eye between 7 & 8 UTC


That's not an eye.. He is way better organized right now than when he was then. He's a 40 mph tropical storm. Just barely a TS. Not even close to a hurricane.
Quoting cajunkid:


because he had an eye between 7 & 8 UTC


Wow! If you look closely at the CDO you can see ripples/waves within the convection.
Quoting cajunkid:
I believe Alex is a hurricane


And I'm sure you believe that the earth is flat, the moon is made of cheese, and that aliens live among us.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

This image scared me any new news on Alex?
look like a hurricane on land..
Quoting cajunkid:


because he had an eye between 7 & 8 UTC

I see no eye.
Quoting leo305:


lmao it had an EYE!!!!

I knew it was going to go through RI my jaw dropped when I saw it right now compared to last night lmao

LOL.. I saw that ...boy you changed that quote quickly....holy .....
1597. bjdsrq
Quite a whipsaw in comparing consecutive model tracks over last 48 hours, at least in their 72+ hour forecast. Panama City to southern BOC. This thing might not even make a US landfall.... or will it? lol

Something tells me we haven't seen the final word of major forecast track adjustments.
Rapid intensification is a possibility today given the coverage of cold convection and the appearance of numerous hot towers. From SHIPS:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%)
Quoting 954FtLCane:

LOL.. I saw that ...boy you changed that quote quickly....holy .....
not quick enough already copied and pasted into email to admin foul lang will not be tolerated learn self control
Quoting 954FtLCane:

LOL.. I saw that ...boy you changed that quote quickly....holy .....

Yeah, I saw it too. He's lucky I didn't report his post to admin.
1601. leo305
Quoting DarIvy959810:
Alex is 30 hours from landfall as it speed decreasing slightely it could landfall as a 70 MPH storm.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
LOOK AT THE MAP SEE THE ARROWS THATS THE WAY ITS GOING NOT ROCKET SCIENCE


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
LOOK AT THE MAP SEE THE ARROWS THATS THE WAY ITS GOING NOT ROCKET SCIENCE


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

Quoting clwstmchasr:


And I'm sure you believe that the earth is flat, the moon is made of cheese, and that aliens live among us.


OMG! The world is flat?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
LOOK AT THE MAP SEE THE ARROWS THATS THE WAY ITS GOING NOT ROCKET SCIENCE



Keeper, those currents seem to be trending more towards the nw over time. Is there a Maxima im unaware of? All im asking is if it goes slower does the westerly turn slacken off?
Quoting YourCommonSense:


OMG! The world is flat?


LOL
1605. Walshy
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not quick enough already copied and pasted into email to admin foul lang will not be tolerated learn self control



I reported too.

Alex is really exploding. Maybe a stronger tropical storm than forecasted for the Yucatan.
we have to keep a close eye on TS ALEX on sat to see if it is stalling during the day today I have a very bad gut feeling that this could very well happen so it stalls moves further NNE-NE start a more northerly components to track and miss the yucatan and belize and goes in between the yucatan and W tip of Cuba
So, the trough that might or might not affect Alex, where is it right now?
1608. leo305
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, I saw it too. He's lucky I didn't report his post to admin.


It was the excitement, I didn't mean to offend anyone, I was going to say "It had a *explicit word* EYE! I edited it ofcourse, because I didn't know if it was going to be taken the right way, and clearly it wasn't so I made a good choice in removing it =P
A 40mph tropical storms does not have an eye.

Plain and simple.
Core and LLC are just slightly off alignment.

1612. jpsb
Quoting YourCommonSense:


OMG! The world is flat?
Go outside and have a look. Flat. lol
1613. leo305
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not quick enough already copied and pasted into email to admin foul lang will not be tolerated learn self control


which is why I edited it.. I just woke up..
Quoting Comradez:
Jesus Christ, I go to bed for 4 hours, and I wake up with Alex looking like a hurricane!?

Anyone have the latest T#s?


SAB 2.5, TAFB 3.0

AL 01 201006261145 DVTS 1700N 8530W SAB 2525 /////
AL 01 201006261145 DVTS 1730N 8500W TAFB 3030 /////
1615. Hhunter
Quoting clwstmchasr:
A 40mph tropical storms does not have an eye.

Plain and simple.


Actually, some do.. that are on the verge of a rapid intensification period.. Humberto and Gustav for example. However, I don't see any evidence of an eye.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
we have to keep a close eye on TS ALEX on sat to see if it is stalling during the day today I have a very bad gut feeling that this could very well happen so it stalls moves further NNE-NE start a more northerly components to track and miss the yucatan and belize and goes in between the yucatan and W tip of Cuba


I don't wanna sound like JFV when he said he would bet his life that either Ike or Gustav would not get into the gulf LOL, but I bet my life that will not happen..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg

WOW GUYS LOOK AT ALEX'S CONVECTION, IT JUST EXPLODED!!! DARK RED AND EVEN WHITE!!
Quoting Waltanater:


I do! In fact, I feel it may hook NE to the LA/FL panhandle at the last moment.


I didn't know there was a LA/FL panhandle. Last I checked, MS and AL was in the middle of those two.
look at the East Atlantic storm
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
It has an eye!!!111!11!




Imagine seeing that from the International Space Station.
1623. bjdsrq
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
we have to keep a close eye on TS ALEX on sat to see if it is stalling during the day today I have a very bad gut feeling that this could very well happen so it stalls moves further NNE-NE start a more northerly components to track and miss the yucatan and belize and goes in between the yucatan and W tip of Cuba


I'll take the NHC track over your gut feeling forecast... at least for the next 48 hours. Beyond 72+ hours, I don't have much faith in any one solution.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Actually, some do.. that are on the verge of a rapid intensification period.. Humberto and Gustav for example. However, I don't see any evidence of an eye.


Are you talking a center or an eye? A big difference.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
It has an eye!!!111!11!




LOL!
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Are you talking a center or an eye? A big difference.


Well all tropical storms have a center lol
Those be some coooooold cloud tops....
94L now looks like a wave.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

Quoting YourCommonSense:


Imagine seeing that from the International Space Station. Should truly be a Kodak moment
1630. leo305
If you look at the satellite loop on the NHC site, you can see an eye beginning to form at 6:15, then just stop it and keep clicking the arrow to continue to the next frame, and notice how it tries to pop out.

Also notice its moving more NW than WNW now (due to the fact it's feeling upper level steering now so than it ever did before)
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Are you talking a center or an eye? A big difference.


A literal eye, Gustav and Humberto both featured it on radar and on satellite loops, and a eyewall too.. Gustav even had it as a TD briefly, then it suddenly became a 65 mph TS.
Quoting tropicfreak:
94L now looks like a wave.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg


What do you mean? I don't think it was ever more or less than a wave.
winds just picked up here on roatan. probably a steady 25 with gusts over 30 but i am on the south west end of the island. must be much heavier on the north side. will get that info in a moment.
Quoting leo305:


which is why I edited it.. I just woke up..

That is no excuse. That sort of language belongs in the gutter not on a weather blog.

Currently at Homebush, Sydney, Australia.
Temperature 49.8°F falling
Dew Point 33.8°F steady
Feels Like 49.8°F
Relative Humidity 54%
Wind
Wind Gusts -
Pressure -
Fire Danger Very Low
Rain since 9am/last hr 0.0mm / -
1635. Hhunter
water vapor
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


What do you mean? I don't think it was ever more or less than a wave.


NOO! a wave that is about to break.
1637. leo305
Quoting AussieStorm:

That is no excuse. That sort of language belongs in the gutter not on a weather blog.

Currently at Homebush, Sydney, Australia.
Temperature 49.8°F falling
Dew Point 33.8°F steady
Feels Like 49.8°F
Relative Humidity 54%
Wind
Wind Gusts -
Pressure -
Fire Danger Very Low
Rain since 9am/last hr 0.0mm / -


Well sorry, I didn't know, I am new to the blog.. you guys can't tolerate one mistake? Sheesh.. I'm only human
1638. Hhunter
what happenned to dr lyons?
We have a trip scheduled to San Antonio next Friday and things are not looking good for that. Whats the chances that Alex will turn more to the northern gulf?
Canadian satellite might have captured some cloud to cloud lightning.

What site do you go to that has the latest Dvorak numbers? I know the latest numbers, I just wanna know where everyone gets them from.

tropical storm alex look like a winds up to 50 mph.
Quoting tropicfreak:


NOO! a wave that is about to break.


Ohhh that kind of wave ROFL
Quoting Hhunter:
what happenned to dr lyons?


I think he's working for NWS in Texas.
Quoting Hhunter:
water vapor


One word: beast
Quoting TerraNova:
Core and LLC are just slightly off alignment.


hi good morning all!
TerraNova where didu find that image?
Quoting Hhunter:
what happenned to dr lyons?


He quit TWC and went to the NWS in San Angelo, TX
Good morning all. I see Alex finally resembles a tropical system. As for track, I sure hope he picks the southern route. No one needs this any where near BP's giant mess.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
What site do you go to that has the latest Dvorak numbers? I know the latest numbers, I just wanna know where everyone gets them from.


Site 1
Site 2
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
It has an eye!!!111!11!



LOL LOL LOL Lurking, learning, lurking, studying, lurking...LAUGHING! Thanks for this one...needed a good giggle this AM!
1651. Grothar
Quoting roatangardener:
winds just picked up here on roatan. probably a steady 25 with gusts over 30 but i am on the south west end of the island. must be much heavier on the north side. will get that info in a moment.


Wow! Looks like he's right on top of you. I'm glad he didn't intensify rapidly throughout his trek so far.
Quoting jpsb:
I had no idea Ike did damage all the way to Sabine pass, wow, Rita was a nasty one, worse then Ike or so I hear. Alex is looking like another Ike, it is so damn big.

??? Portlight's Bridge City missions, my in-laws' roof ripped off in Nederland, extensive flooding in Orange, flooding along the Calcesieu River in SW LA. Stopping myself, I could do this a while...
1654. leo305
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Wow! Looks like he's right on top of you. I'm glad he didn't intensify rapidly throughout his trek so far.


Alex is passing through an island right now?
Well, I think the center is going north of Belize.

If the 7:00a.m central coordinates are correct, it is going to end up farther north than Belize, certainly no farther south than the extreme northern border, and this is assuming no further strengthening or other jogs to the north.
Quoting Grothar:
Quoting downdraugh24:

hi good morning all!
TerraNova where didu find that image?


AMSU Microwave Satellite Page (AL012010)
Quoting TerraNova:


Site 1
Site 2


TYVM! Wow, site 2 (is that TAFB?) has a raw T number of 4.4 for Alex.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
What site do you go to that has the latest Dvorak numbers? I know the latest numbers, I just wanna know where everyone gets them from.
looking at that loop I see it move to the NW it might be a jog but it does move nw not wnw
It's hard to tell it's a small island check the top image of post 1642
Alex has begun more of a WNW track... its very noticable on satellite... if this continues for the next 6 hours or so, i would think the models will start trenind more and more towards COrpus Christi/houston...
Quoting TerraNova:
Canadian satellite might have captured some cloud to cloud lightning.



Very interesting
1664. scott39
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


TYVM! Wow, site 2 (is that TAFB?) has a raw T number of 4.4 for Alex.
what does that mean?
1665. USSINS
Quoting StormJunkie:
Good morning all. I see Alex finally resembles a tropical system. As for track, I sure hope he picks the southern route. No one needs this any where near BP's giant mess.



Long time no see, stranger. You're so right - the GOM doesn't need anything that pushes this mess towards land, in any direction.
JAC on Canetalk.com posted this; it appears that Alex's circulation is so broad that it's tapping into energy from the rest of the Caribbean, including the high SST's to the north. The faster its winds go, the more energy gets pumped into its core.

Quoting scott39:
what does that mean?


4.0 is hurricane strength

However that t number was raw, not final. The final T number given by that site is 3.4 IIRC
1668. Drakoen
Very cold cloud tops some arouynd -90C



Some interesting model predictions.
Quoting roatangardener:
winds just picked up here on roatan. probably a steady 25 with gusts over 30 but i am on the south west end of the island. must be much heavier on the north side. will get that info in a moment.
Take care!
1671. Grothar
There will be much more to watch, even after Alex. One does not normally see these waves until much later in the season.

1672. juniort
Good day, does anyone see that intense spining area over Africa?
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


TYVM! Wow, site 2 (is that TAFB?) has a raw T number of 4.4 for Alex.


EDIT: Yeah the final T# is 3.4, still I found the pressure estimate very interesting.

Oh wow, I just saw that myself, it's falling pretty quickly. It has pressure at 995 mb.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 JUN 2010 Time : 114500 UTC
Lat : 17:04:59 N Lon : 85:18:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.5 4.4


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 0.0mb

Center Temp : -79.7C Cloud Region Temp : -78.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
1674. Drakoen
maybe north comong soon WeatherLoverinMiami
1676. scott39
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


4.0 is hurricane strength

However that t number was raw, not final. The final T number given by that site is 3.4 IIRC
Is it strengthening faster than it was 6 hours ago? If it is will this change the track?
Quoting leo305:


Alex is passing through an island right now?
There are several tiny islands in the western Caribbean but they are too small to have any effect on Alex.
1679. leo305
Quoting scott39:
Is it strengthening faster than it was 6 hours ago? If it is will this change the track?


yes it is strengthening rather rapidly, and yes it will affect its path, the stronger it gets the more it will feel those upper level steering currents, hence the more north it will move.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
There are several tiny islands in the western Caribbean but they are too small to have any effect on Alex.


Yea I know, I just wanted to know which island, since the guy was posting observations, just to see were exactly he was in comparison to the center
Quoting scott39:
Is it strengthening faster than it was 6 hours ago? If it is will this change the track?


About the same rate as yesterday. It actually weakened overnight to 1007 mb but it got back up to 1004 this morning. And, like StormW said yesterday, the track won't be changed too much unless it becomes a full-fledged hurricane today.
1681. Drakoen
good morning all TS alex Is huge i haven't seen a storm this big in a while
1683. hydrus
.
Quoting Drakoen:

1674.
That image takes forever to load.wow
Quoting leo305:


yes it is strengthening rather rapidly, and yes it will affect its path, the stronger it gets the more it will feel those upper level steering currents, hence the more north it will move.



Yea I know, I just wanted to know which island, since the guy was posting observations, just to see were exactly he was in comparison to the center
Roatan which is a Honduran island.
Quoting Drakoen:


Wow, what temperature is the second white? It went through all the colors and now it's back to white again..
Quoting leo305:


yes it is strengthening rather rapidly, and yes it will affect its path, the stronger it gets the more it will feel those upper level steering currents, hence the more north it will move.



Yea I know, I just wanted to know which island, since the guy was posting observations, just to see were exactly he was in comparison to the center


Link Shows Roatan Island
Quoting StormJunkie:
Good morning all. I see Alex finally resembles a tropical system. As for track, I sure hope he picks the southern route. No one needs this any where near BP's giant mess.


SJ, good to see you here again.

agreed, hope this storm stays to the south and moves out quickly...
1690. Drakoen
Alex being such a large system will help it survive the trek across the Yucatan
just looking at loop and pressures I belive and this is JMO this storm will be a hurricane later tonight again I am not trying to start anything or saying were it is going but the current tracks will change alot if these happens
1692. Grothar
Hard to believe what the GFDL has at 102 hours.

1693. GetReal
the center is more to the northeast of the island that people on here are talking about
1695. twooks
I'm having a really hard time believing this is a barely a TS judging by the satellite.
1696. leo305
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Link Shows Roatan Island


based on satellite the center is well north of that area, and the guy is reporting some brisk 30mph winds..
Alex looking impressive this morning. IMO the NHC intensity guidance is probably too low throughout the forecast period.
1698. Drakoen
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Wow, what temperature is the second white? It went through all the colors and now it's back to white again..


There is no white showing up on the AVN imagery. Those are islands
Quoting extreme236:
Alex looking impressive this morning. IMO the NHC intensity guidance is probably too low throughout the forecast period.


Agreed.
When does the next Recon go in
Wow. THis thing is rapidly growing into a monstor. Is Alex tapping moisture from the Pacific yet?
this storm to me looks like its trying to move NW, looks like landfall maybe between cancun and the north coast of belieze
Quoting Grothar:
Hard to believe what the GFDL has at 102 hours.




3 out of 5 Computer models predicts a hurricane in 84-96 hours
1704. jpsb
Quoting extreme236:
Alex looking impressive this morning. IMO the NHC intensity guidance is probably too low throughout the forecast period.
They probably to not want to scare BP into shutting down operations. Being conservative for now. But yeah I agree.
Will NHC increase the intensity of Alex at 11am based on satellite imagery alone, regardless of recon? I think it warrants it.
Quoting Drakoen:


There is no white showing up on the AVN imagery. Those are islands


Oh lol, I knew there were islands in that general area, but I guess it didn't register in my mind before convection did.

When is the recon going out today, if there is one. Based on CIMSS ADT and satellite imagery this would probably be a 60 mph system, I'd like to see what the HHs find.
1707. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts


1708. leo305
Quoting Seflhurricane:
this storm to me looks like its trying to move NW, looks like landfall maybe between cancun and the north coast of belieze


yep

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

that's why
Quoting lickitysplit:
Wow. THis thing is rapidly growing into a monstor. Is Alex tapping moisture from the Pacific yet?


Look at post 1666.
Quoting Hurricanejer95:



3 out of 5 Computer models predicts a hurricane in 120-132 hours


The scale is in mph, not knots, so only the GFDL is the one forecasting a hurricane out of those 5 models.

There are definitely more though, like the CMC..
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 26/1400Z
D. 18.5N 86.5W
E. 26/1630Z TO 26/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

They take off in 1 hour and arrive in the system 2 and a half hours later.
1712. USSINS
Quoting Drakoen:
Alex being such a large system will help it survive the trek across the Yucatan


Exactly. The Yucatan is so flat and relatively narrow that it will still be able to collect moisture from the surrounding waters of the peninsula.
Can't see how this will not steadily strenghten, the outflow is almost perfect....

This is what the NHC is thinking for the next advisory

AL, 01, 2010062612, , BEST, 0, 171N, 857W, 40, 1004, TS
SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 28/1200Z IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES OVERLAND.
1692:

Actually, not it's not.

The potential intensity map easily forecasts that...

Intensity Map

Notice it is doing exactly what I said would happen. All the reds, purples, blues, and blacks are shifting west as the extreme outer circulation pushes the surface water from the Bahamas and Yucatan channel into the Gulf.

The weakest "maximum" forecast in the Gulf any more is a 940mb to 950mb hurricane near the Texas/Mexico border. The strongest is literally typhoon Tip into Louisiana or Florida.

The farther north it goes, the more it will strengthen, and the more it strengthens, the farther north it will go.

This is not a joke.

This is going to turn into a life and death situation for a LOT of people in just a few days.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 26/1400Z
D. 18.5N 86.5W
E. 26/1630Z TO 26/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

They take off in 1 hour and arrive in the system 2 and a half hours later.
Thank you we are anguishly awaiting our faith here in Belize
Quoting Hurricanejer95:



3 out of 5 Computer models predicts a hurricane in 120-132 hours


It is amazing to see the huge shift west. Yesterday morning the GFDL was pointed Alex at LA and now virtually all of the models are indicting that Alex is going to be a Mexico storm.
1719. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:
Hard to believe what the GFDL has at 102 hours.

The south Texas coast better keep track of this storm. Water is so warm out there and the circulation is broad. It is possible they will have a very large and powerful hurricane on the coast in 4 or 5 days.
1720. Patrap
Raisinets are NOT breakfast
Of course the media is all for Alex going into the oil spill. It won't go anywhere near it, yet look at the front page of CNN..
Quoting belizeit:
Thank you we are anguishly awaiting our faith here in Belize

No problem, make sure all of your preparations are in place and you have a plan, then everything will be fine.
1723. scott39
Wasnt this WNW path based on Alex only being a minimal TS ,when it crosses the Yucatan?
1724. leo305
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Of course the media is all for Alex going into the oil spill. It won't go anywhere near it, yet look at the front page of CNN..


"it won't go anywhere near it"

how do you know if it will or wont? The models aren't perfect you know.
Good morning

What a sight Alex is this morning with those very cold cloud tops.

I just took a look at the steering and the flow off the Western tip of Cuba has relaxed a little and created a small weakness. If Alex intensifies quickly over the next 12 hours the high to the N will have some work to do to hold it down.

It will be interesting to see if this WNW track can continue to verify.
1726. leo305
Quoting scott39:
Wasnt this WNW path based on Alex only being a minimal TS ,when it crosses the Yucatan?


yes it was..
Quoting BiloxiIsle:


I didn't know there was a LA/FL panhandle. Last I checked, MS and AL was in the middle of those two.
Of course there isn't! I meant either LA OR the FL panhandle. Thanks.
Quoting RecordSeason:
1692:

Actually, not it's not.

The potential intensity map easily forecasts that...

Intensity Map

Notice it is doing exactly what I said would happen. All the reds, purples, blues, and blacks are shifting west as the extreme outer circulation pushes the surface water from the Bahamas and Yucatan channel into the Gulf.

The weakest "maximum" forecast in the Gulf any more is a 940mb to 950mb hurricane near the Texas/Mexico border. The strongest is literally typhoon Tip into Louisiana or Florida.

The farther north it goes, the more it will strengthen, and the more it strengthens, the farther north it will go.

This is not a joke.

This is going to turn into a life and death situation for a LOT of people in just a few days.


There are a bunch of folks working off shore.

I hope there is a good consensus soon on the forecast and that it is right. Lives are definitely at stake.
1729. Drakoen
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Quoting Hurricanejer95:



3 out of 5 Computer models predicts a hurricane in 120-132 hours


It is amazing to see the huge shift west. Yesterday morning the GFDL was pointed Alex at LA and now virtually all of the models are indicting that Alex is going to be a Mexico storm.


GFDL and CMC show Alex going into southern Texas
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Quoting Hurricanejer95:



3 out of 5 Computer models predicts a hurricane in 120-132 hours


It is amazing to see the huge shift west. Yesterday morning the GFDL was pointed Alex at LA and now virtually all of the models are indicting that Alex is going to be a Mexico storm.


Amazing what an actual system that can be initialized by the models will do for you :)
Is the NHC requiring(this year) that all storms be checked the HH's before they're deemed stronger/weaker??
1733. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

What a sight Alex is this this morning with those very cold cloud tops.

I just took a look at the steering and the flow off the Western tip of Cuba has relaxed a little and created a small weakness. If Alex intensifies quickly over the next 12 hours the high to the N will have some work to do to hold it down.

It will be interesting to see if this WNW track can continue to verify.
Goodmorning, What latitude and at what hour from now, does Alex need to be, for the trough forecasted, to effect its turn to the N and NE?
i agree kman..it will be interesting..the stronger alex gets the more of a chance he can stall being kind of squeezed right now and also would have a better chance of being influenced by the deep trough set to drop down from the rockies..this could be the scenario we didn't want to happen..
Quoting leo305:


"it won't go anywhere near it"

how do you know if it will or wont? The models aren't perfect you know.


You're correct that anything can happen and we really don't know for sure.. and I know the models aren't God but... can THAT many models really all be wrong? If they were still split like they were yesterday then I wouldn't have said that, but they're as consolidated as it gets now.
1736. Hhunter
1737. cg2916
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Tropical Storm Alex; Bonnie not too far


456! WB! Man, I was about to go crazy, you've been gone for a week! Matter of fact, this blog WAS crazy. Of course, it always is.
1738. Grothar
Quoting Patrap:
Raisinets are NOT breakfast


They are to anyone over 60. LOL Come on, you tell me you never mixed raisins in your metamucil?
Quoting leo305:


"it won't go anywhere near it"

how do you know if it will or wont? The models aren't perfect you know.


Let's hope it won't go anywhere near it. It is large. So it won't have to go through it to cause a lot of trouble. I hope it stays south and in the BOC. Those folks have enough of a heart ache.
RE: 1709.

Thank you. I will take a look.
Who gave Alex the 'roids last night? Those cloud tops are impressive!
if mr. alex deepens quicker than expected...and thats a big if, would it feel the weakness to the north any more than its forecast to now...i think hes way to big to spin up to a hurricane before landfall....but if he was to deepen to a cat 1, could we see a shift to the right on our models???
1743. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
The south Texas coast better keep track of this storm. Water is so warm out there and the circulation is broad. It is possible they will have a very large and powerful hurricane on the coast in 4 or 5 days.


Seems like!
1744. cg2916
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Is the NHC requiring(this year) that all storms be checked the HH's before they're deemed stronger/weaker??


No, they just like the accurate data.
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, What latitude and at what hour from now, does Alex need to be, for the trough forecasted, to effect its turn to the N and NE?


Based upon my recollection of an exchange I had with Levi around 6 yesterday it was somewhere between 72 and 90 hrs from then. If that is right then subtract 14 hours from that time window on either side.

Drak is on, he may know the current position as I have not checked this morning.
1746. leo305
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


You're correct that anything can happen and we really don't know for sure.. and I know the models aren't God but... can THAT many models really all be wrong? If they were still split like they were yesterday then I wouldn't have said that, but they're as consolidated as it gets now.


they can be all wrong, but it's true, it is very unlikely that they will be, but the thing is already well north of there consensus. They didn't forecast a strong TS hitting the Yucatan let alone a potential Hurricane. So already the models are beginning to fall behind on it, so we'll see what happens, the models continue to pull it towards the central Yucatan, and into the deep gulf towards Mexico/Texas, my eye keeps looking at the steering layers and the strength of this system, as it is moving further north than it was before, and as it continues to strengthen, it will only gain more latitude.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

What a sight Alex is this morning with those very cold cloud tops.

I just took a look at the steering and the flow off the Western tip of Cuba has relaxed a little and created a small weakness. If Alex intensifies quickly over the next 12 hours the high to the N will have some work to do to hold it down.

It will be interesting to see if this WNW track can continue to verify.


G'morning Kman. Good to see you.
For every one in the path follow these guidelines, also remember that you should take it seriously even if it's a tropical storm:

When in a Watch area...
Listen frequently to radio, TV or NOAA Weather
Radio All Hazards for bulletins of a storm’s progress.

Fuel and service your vehicles.

Inspect and secure mobile home tie-downs.

Board up windows in case the storm moves quickly and
you have to evacuate.

Stock up on batteries, food that will keep, first aid
supplies, drinking water and medications.

Store lawn furniture and other loose, light-weight objects,
such as garbage cans and garden tools.

Have cash on hand in case power goes out and ATMs
don’t work.

If in the waring area:

Closely monitor radio, TV or NOAA Weather Radio
All Hazards for official bulletins.

Close all interior doors. Secure and brace external doors.

If you are in a two story house, go to an interior
1st floor room.

If you are in a multi-story building and away from water,
go to the 1st or 2nd floor and stay in the halls or other
interior rooms away from windows.

Lie on the floor under a table or other sturdy object

*Information from NOAA*
1749. Patrap
Quoting Grothar:


They are to anyone over 60. LOL Come on, you tell me you never mixed raisins in your metamucil?


Im so busted seems.
1750. IKE
Quoting extreme236:
This is what the NHC is thinking for the next advisory

AL, 01, 2010062612, , BEST, 0, 171N, 857W, 40, 1004, TS


About 150 miles til landfall.
1751. leo305
Quoting watchingnva:
if mr. alex deepens quicker than expected...and thats a big if, would it feel the weakness to the north any more than its forecast to now...i think hes way to big to spin up to a hurricane before landfall....but if he was, could we see a shift to the right on our models???


yes, it is already deepening quicker than expected.. look at the satellite, and the DVORAk or w.e its called numbers.. 3.4 to a 4.4 in a matter of hours "1004 to 995" and that's a satellite estimate
1752. bassis
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Tropical Storm Alex; Bonnie not too far



Thank you for your wisdom. Hope all is well with your son
1753. Grothar
Quoting Hhunter:


Much less white around the center. Seems a little less explosive than just a few hours ago. Now don't all jump at once. One at a time will do. Attack #1 should start right.....now!
1754. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


Based upon my recollection of an exchange I had with Levi around 6 yesterday it was somewhere between 72 and 90 hrs from then. If that is right then subtract 14 hours from that time window on either side.

Drak is on, he may know the current position as I have not checked this morning.
Thanks, I know the focus is on Mexico/Texas coast impact. Do you think thats premature based on how Alex looks today?
1755. cg2916
456, what do you think about Alex? That thing is huge, very organized, amazing, really.
Quoting leo305:


yes, it is already deepening quicker than expected.. look at the satellite, and the DVORAk or w.e its called numbers.. 3.4 to a 4.4 in a matter of hours "1004 to 995" and that's a satellite estimate


i already figured and new, i just wanted to get everyone else opinion on here....i see kman is seeing the same thing as well...if the 2 huge areas can converge and wrap around the center over the next 6-12 hours, he might have a shot. ill be interested to see what the next hunters find when they fly in...
the trough should be infuencing alex by late sunday night or early monday..we should see a definite change in direction by then...
I expect a landfall near the Texas/Mexican border with a bias to Texas.
Compare the State of Florida to Alex in Size

I think the center of Alex is further North and East than what is listed as the coordinates
1761. Patrap
I Like Tex Mex Food fer sure..
Quoting IKE:


About 150 miles til landfall.


Gives us about 18 and a half hours at this current rate of speed.
Alex is a pre-mature version of Wilma, which is not surprising given the conditions of this hurricane season. The CDO is rather irregular but for a tropical storm of 40 mph it is very well organize. Size of the storm will likely cause intensification to be more gradual than it otherwise would be.
WOW.....

1766. cg2916
Quoting Weather456:
I expect a landfall near the Texas/Mexican border with a bias to Texas.


That's the most accepted scenario, but no one can really tell until he gets into the GOM.
NHC way too slow with the track, it is already at the 18z position according to the satellite...ECMWF has it making landfall at sunset.
1768. Patrap
Wilma..like

In June ?

Quoting weatherwatcher12:
For every one in the path follow these guidelines, also remember that you should take it seriously even if it's a tropical storm:

When in a Watch area...
Listen frequently to radio, TV or NOAA Weather
Radio All Hazards for bulletins of a storm’s progress.

Fuel and service your vehicles.

Inspect and secure mobile home tie-downs.

Board up windows in case the storm moves quickly and
you have to evacuate.

Stock up on batteries, food that will keep, first aid
supplies, drinking water and medications.

Store lawn furniture and other loose, light-weight objects,
such as garbage cans and garden tools.

Have cash on hand in case power goes out and ATMs
don’t work.

If in the waring area:

Closely monitor radio, TV or NOAA Weather Radio
All Hazards for official bulletins.

Close all interior doors. Secure and brace external doors.

If you are in a two story house, go to an interior
1st floor room.

If you are in a multi-story building and away from water,
go to the 1st or 2nd floor and stay in the halls or other
interior rooms away from windows.

Lie on the floor under a table or other sturdy object

*Information from NOAA*


One more for those of us in the tropics - bury coconuts. Stock up on mozzy stuff. Check your genset (if you have one) to make sure it will work. The government shuts down electricity here and we don't have any natural gas lines so we have very few fires. That said, triple check your propane tanks. Store Kayaks and paddles and all scuba gear. The projectiles do so much more damage than surge as we have very little surge here (even living on the beach).
1770. Grothar
However, look at the yellow in this frame. That is a tremendous amount of cold cloud tops. Very impressive.

More tips for those in a watch area:
Close storm shutters.
Follow instructions issued by local officials.

Leave
immediately if ordered!

If evacuating, leave as soon as possible. Stay with friends
or relatives, at a low-rise inland motel or at a designated
public shelter outside the flood zone.

DO NOT stay in a mobile or manufactured home.
Notify neighbors and a family member outside of the
warned area of your evacuation plans.

Take pets with you if possible, but remember, most
public shelters do not allow pets other than those used by
the handicapped. Identify pet-friendly motels along your
evacuation route.

*Information from NOAA*
1773. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:


Based upon my recollection of an exchange I had with Levi around 6 yesterday it was somewhere between 72 and 90 hrs from then. If that is right then subtract 14 hours from that time window on either side.

Drak is on, he may know the current position as I have not checked this morning.


17.5N 85.8W
Question:

Will the trough making its way east have an impact on Alex if the speed remains unchanged at 8mph?
Quoting InTheCone:
WOW.....



I'll be the first fishcaster! Wow!
Hey Storm - Great Minds ...LOL!
1777. scott39
Quoting StormW:
Holy smoke!

Batman! LOL
1778. Hhunter
Quoting StormW:
Holy smoke!



dang...this is june right???
1779. cg2916
Quoting StormW:
Holy smoke!



Hey, Alex, your sister's visiting for a week. Don't eat up all the hot water!
1780. Walshy
Quoting InTheCone:
WOW.....

Quoting StormW:
Holy smoke!


Impressive (the wave, not because y'all just posted essentially the same thing back to back, although I guess I am impressed at that too...) :P
Also, I had a feeling that this would be a very well organize system since the upper outflow pattern that had set while the system was near Hispaniola was very similar to 2005. If you trail the outflow jet of Alex you would see it is very similar to alot of systems in 2005. Allowing a system to breath effectively under that size.
1783. twooks
Quoting cg2916:


Hey, Alex, your sister's visiting for a week. Don't eat up all the hot water!


Or her...
That thing in Africa is huge and already circulating nicely. Will the water temp support that typhoon-looking structure?
Quoting StormW:


Glad you're back! What happened?


I was ill, recovered, my son took ill, recovering.
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, I know the focus is on Mexico/Texas coast impact. Do you think thats premature based on how Alex looks today?


The long term track is based on a number of factors one of which is intensity. The NW Caribbean has a tendency to defy intensity estimates with systems ramping up much quicker than expected.

Alex is generating very high cold cloud tops and my suspicion is that we may see the pressure respond in the next 6 hours with an appreciable drop. A stronger Alex would be inclined to pass over the Northern end of the Yucatan which would reduce the time over land as well as provide a passage over relatively flat ground with moisture on three sides available to help maintain intensity.

If this were to happen the Texas / Mexico border would probably fall to the South of landfall. How far N Alex can go remains to be seen but I am not sold on the Texas / Mexico border myself.
1788. Grothar
Quoting StormW:
Holy smoke!



See post #1671. Aren't you paying attention this morning Storm? Come on get with the program. I'll repost it for you

1789. cg2916
Quoting Grothar:
However, look at the yellow in this frame. That is a tremendous amount of cold cloud tops. Very impressive.



Wow!

Quoting StormW:
Holy smoke!

Amazing anticyclonic outflow on a tropical wave over Africa.
1791. Patrap
Been following since Monday.

Now we get the First Half synopsis.

Egg-cellent
1792. jpsb
Quoting InTheCone:
WOW.....

A landcane? Wow is right.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think the center of Alex is further North and East than what is listed as the coordinates
I think it is further west.
1795. cg2916
Quoting twooks:


Or her...


Yeah, Alex is WAY too big for a TS, although there is no set size for it, but seriously, it's Katrina-sized.
The wave over Africa has model support, in fact, the first AEW with that much model support.
Windfield derived from this morning's 06Z yesterday afternoon recon flight.



Quoting Drakoen:


17.5N 85.8W


Hi Drak, sorry, I meant the current position regarding the timing of the trough. I know it is at least a couple of days away.
1800. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:


The long term track is based on a number of factors one of which is intensity. The NW Caribbean has a tendency to defy intensity estimates with systems ramping up much quicker than expected.

Alex is generating very high cold cloud tops and my suspicion is that we may see the pressure respond in the next 6 hours with an appreciable drop. A stronger Alex would be inclined to pass over the Northern end of the Yucatan which would reduce the time over land as well as provide a passgae over relatively flat ground with moisture on three sides available to help maintain intensity.

If this were to happen the Texas / Mexico border would probably fall to the South of landfall. How far N Alex can go remains to be seen but I am not sold on the Texas / Mexico border myself.


How that envelope Lifts across the Yuc and how well it can keep the inflow intact doing it,..land friction..all will determine how and where and in what form TS Alex ejects into the GOM.

Stay Tuned..
Strap in..

Hang on...
1801. GetReal
Quoting kmanislander:


The long term track is based on a number of factors one of which is intensity. The NW Caribbean has a tendency to defy intensity estimates with systems ramping up much quicker than expected.

Alex is generating very high cold cloud tops and my suspicion is that we may see the pressure respond in the next 6 hours with an appreciable drop. A stronger Alex would be inclined to pass over the Northern end of the Yucatan which would reduce the time over land as well as provide a passgae over relatively flat ground with moisture on three sides available to help maintain intensity.

If this were to happen the Texas / Mexico border would probably fall to the South of landfall. How far N Alex can go remains to be seen but I am not sold on the Texas / Mexico border myself.


Ditto!
1802. Grothar
Quoting Weather456:


I was ill, recovered, my son took ill, recovering.


I hope you read the rules on this blog.

No one who has anything serious to contribute to this blog is not allowed to get sick when an active system is occuring.

Glad you're back.
1803. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


The long term track is based on a number of factors one of which is intensity. The NW Caribbean has a tendency to defy intensity estimates with systems ramping up much quicker than expected.

Alex is generating very high cold cloud tops and my suspicion is that we may see the pressure respond in the next 6 hours with an appreciable drop. A stronger Alex would be inclined to pass over the Northern end of the Yucatan which would reduce the time over land as well as provide a passgae over relatively flat ground with moisture on three sides available to help maintain intensity.

If this were to happen the Texas / Mexico border would probably fall to the South of landfall. How far N Alex can go remains to be seen but I am not sold on the Texas / Mexico border myself.
Does the NHC start conservatively with all developing systems, because it is difficult to forecast any rapid intensefication?
1804. amd
thank goodness Alex will be on land by the end of the day. I shutter to think what the intensity of the storm would have been if Alex had more time on water.

I'll be very interested to see what the intensity of Alex is when the next recon visits it.
Whoa! Whats with teh circulation in that wave that is still over Africa? Is that common and what usually happens to that after it moves over water?
GFS vol. 1 shows a fairly pronounced wave emerging off the African coast around 48 hours from now.
There's so much moisture and energy in the atmosphere, is a short trip over land really going to weaken Alex all that much?

If it were going over hilly or mountainous terrain that would be one thing, but the Yucatan is practically flat.
Storm, that's an amazing looking wave. Is it already a low?
What is this that the GfS has?:
Very impressive upper level outflow

Morning all. Glad to be back joining you all for Hurricane Season 2010. I see we're off to a pretty quick pace with a few places to watch...
1812. Hhunter
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/jsl-l.jpg
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
What is this that the GfS has?:


LINK
1814. Hhunter
1816. cg2916
Storm, I think you're right, someone put sugar in Mother Nature's cornflakes, between the crazy TS, August weather in the SE, and Darby's forecast track makes it look like it's drunk or something.
1817. Grothar
Quoting InTheCone:
Hey Storm - Great Minds ...LOL!


Same message to you Cone. I posted that in post #1671, about 45 minutes ago. LOL (It is impressive, though, isn't it)
Quoting cg2916:
Storm, I think you're right, someone put sugar in Mother Nature's cornflakes, between the crazy TS, August weather in the SE, and Darby's forecast track makes it look like it's drunk or something.


I did not use sugar.... It was of the liquid variety. LOL
1820. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Drak, sorry, I meant the current position regarding the timing of the trough. I know it is at least a couple of days away.


The trough is currently over the 4 corners region moving eastward into the the Plains region. Around 24 hours it creates a weakness in the western GOM.

1823. USSINS
.
Windfield derived from this morning's 06Z recon flight.


1826. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:
Very impressive upper level outflow



Yea two upper level lows in the Gulf of Mexico aiding in that poleward outflow.
I'm hearing the term "rapid intensification" thrown around a little bit, and possibly for good reason. I find that the 85GHz H imagery from the NRL Monterey site the best for monitoring the core of the storm. If you see the the core get organized and form an eyewall in a hurry, that'll be probably the first place where you will see that rapid intensification is coming.

Morning........Alex is a huge storm and it's effects will be felt across a very large area of the SE Gulf region in the short term......A much smaller circulation would have probably made H status by now.....Torrential flooding is going to be a big problem with this storm where ever it travereses and ends up.
Quoting StormW:


kman, go here, animate, and choose the WV color enhancement.

SSEC


Thanks for that. The trough can be seen advancing quite quickly. This is a bit like skeet shooting with intersecting vectors !.

Speed of the advancing trough versus speed and strenght of Alex. It could be close once Alex emerges off the Yucatan and that will determine how much of a bend we get, if any.
Very potent high

I think you are very much so right stormpetrol I think the COC is located around some where of 17.5N 83.0W or 17.7N 82.6W any some where around that area
1832. cg2916
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I did not use sugar.... It was of the liquid variety. LOL


Maybe she met the CMC and accidentally got a little of the cocaine.
1833. scott39
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL UPDATE FEATURING TROPICAL STORM ALEX ISSUED 9:30 A.M. JUN 26, 2010
Thanks for your update Storm and your objectivity to the track.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/temp/movie.gif

You be the judge of CoC.
Quoting TerraNova:


AMSU Microwave Satellite Page (AL012010)


thanks a lot !
Quoting kmanislander:


The long term track is based on a number of factors one of which is intensity. The NW Caribbean has a tendency to defy intensity estimates with systems ramping up much quicker than expected.

Alex is generating very high cold cloud tops and my suspicion is that we may see the pressure respond in the next 6 hours with an appreciable drop. A stronger Alex would be inclined to pass over the Northern end of the Yucatan which would reduce the time over land as well as provide a passage over relatively flat ground with moisture on three sides available to help maintain intensity.

If this were to happen the Texas / Mexico border would probably fall to the South of landfall. How far N Alex can go remains to be seen but I am not sold on the Texas / Mexico border myself.

And the last model runs were done under the assumption of a weaker Alex...The next 8am run (which should be out around 2) should have the increased intensity compensated for.
Quoting txag91met:
NHC way too slow with the track, it is already at the 18z position according to the satellite...ECMWF has it making landfall at sunset.

Agreed.

Wind obs support that notion, too.

Winds gusting to 34 mph on the SW end of Grand Cayman now.
1839. cg2916
CI# /Pressure/ Vm
3.5 / 994.0mb/ 55.0kt


Advanced Dvorak Technique from CIMSS says it's a 60-65 MPH TS, but the ADT always overdoes it.
1841. cg2916


Now I can't see the vorticity!
Quoting StormW:


Well, sugar is not what someone put on her cornflakes...she's torked at someone!


BP maybe?
Quoting StormJunkie:

And the last model runs were done under the assumption of a weaker Alex...The next 8am run (which should be out around 2) should have the increased intensity compensated for.

I think the long term track also has something to do with how well Alex spins back up with these OHC values on the other side of the Yucatan. We have seen storms do well with them and we have seen otherwise. Not optimum, but could be enough.

And the strengthening after the Yucatan has a lot to do with track behaviors, IMHO.



G'Morn, SJ.
Re: Rasinets

Quoting Grothar:


They are to anyone over 60. LOL Come on, you tell me you never mixed raisins in your metamucil?
******
Old enough have to fact check but memory still serves.

Metamucil = fiber based laxitive
muesli whole grain breakfast cerial popular with the "tie-dyed crunchy-granola crowd"
1845. cg2916


40 kt shear in the GOM, Alex might need a little help after the anticyclone. As soon as it gets off land, BOOM, shear!
1846. Drakoen
Quoting Grothar:


See post #1671. Aren't you paying attention this morning Storm? Come on get with the program. I'll repost it for you


!!!!!!!!!!!!WHat the.........!!!!It even looks like a TS already!And have you noticed the eastern Carib. has been cooling up a bit.
i think Alex is turning more NW!
1850. USSINS
Quoting GetReal:


Ditto!


...what they said.




Never see'd a Bermuda/Azores/Dallas HIGH before. The HPC seems ambiguous. (Alex) will track further north.

A storm has NO choice but to move poleward around the periphery of any high pressure. If it is surrounded by high pressure, it will stall (likely weaken) until conditions permit its passage. The models are placated on a weak system and low-level steering - that will change, particularly with a strengthening storm.

You smart guys, straigthen me out. TIA
In fact, Alex is so huge that any jog in track to the East, as as far as evential landfall, is going to help push the oil offshore of LA/MS etc towards/onto the shore in the NE quadrant....Not a good outcome at all regardless of intensity issues given the current size.
Quoting cg2916:
CI# /Pressure/ Vm
3.5 / 994.0mb/ 55.0kt


Advanced Dvorak Technique from CIMSS says it's a 60-65 MPH TS, but the ADT always overdoes it.
Raw T Numbers are way more than that. They support a cat 1 right now. It's not that strong, but its more than a 40 mph tropical storm right now. I wouldn't throw out the 60 mph estimate.
African wave looks to have some reasonably warm water to work with...



Not to deep until it gets west of 30...



Nice blog this morning, a far cry from the evenings!
wow 100'C black tops
Is it my eyes or is Alex nearly stationary this morning?
Quoting WeathermanAG:
i think Alex is turning more NW!


Howdy weatherman!

Why do you think this?
look at this storm.
True atmo and good morning to you too.

1862. GetReal
Thank you Ussin for posting that graphic... That is one of the main reason that I have not bought into the TX/MX solution for Alex... That surface map would indicate a more poleward motion, especially with a stronger system...
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
More tips for those in a watch area:
Close storm shutters.
Follow instructions issued by local officials.

Leave
immediately if ordered!

If evacuating, leave as soon as possible. Stay with friends
or relatives, at a low-rise inland motel or at a designated
public shelter outside the flood zone.

DO NOT stay in a mobile or manufactured home.
Notify neighbors and a family member outside of the
warned area of your evacuation plans.

Take pets with you if possible, but remember, most
public shelters do not allow pets other than those used by
the handicapped. Identify pet-friendly motels along your
evacuation route.

*Information from NOAA*


PETS: That remains the standard advice. However, along the Gulf, and particularly Florida, many counties have some shelters pre-designated as pet-friendly (usually pets in a separate building from people). This info should be on your county's Emergency Ops website. If it is a major, these States along with local and national agencies will set up an animal evacuation center. In Gustav, we set up a megashelter in Shreveport which housed 1100 animals. Bottom line, PLEASE take your pets with you.
I hope we don't have another Ike on our hands with Alex...
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Windfield derived from this morning's 06Z recon flight.



Motion still WNW rather than NW
Wind field very non symmetrical due to land interaction.
Strongest winds 25?nm from center because the thing still has completely organized yet
Pressure was raised to due to first being taken in a thunderstorm???
Not Impressive....NHC is not being conservative. I would still call it a TD.
1868. amd
Quoting stormpetrol:
Is it my eyes or is Alex nearly stationary this morning?


It's still generally moving onto the wnw, although I wouldn't be surprised if the motion stops for an hour or two as the core consolidates.



1869. cg2916
I swear Alex is the size of Katrina!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


huge



I Agree...

However i could counter your argument with a "thats what she said" line but ill just agree.
1871. scott39
Quoting sailingallover:

Motion still WNW rather than NW
Wind field very non symmetrical due to land interaction.
Strongest winds 25?nm from center because the thing still has completely organized yet
Pressure was raised to due to first being taken in a thunderstorm???
Not Impressive....NHC is not being conservative. I would still call it a TD.
Why would you call it a TD?
We now have a heading to the northwest. As mentioned days ago, the stronger the storm the more north it will go. The stronger system will go to the trough. This is a central Gulf/NE Gulf event. IMO
Quoting sammywammybamy:



I Agree...

However i could counter your argument with a "thats what she said" line but ill just agree.


hahaha, when it gets going it should shrink though... haha
Quoting sailingallover:

Motion still WNW rather than NW
Wind field very non symmetrical due to land interaction.
Strongest winds 25?nm from center because the thing still has completely organized yet
Pressure was raised to due to first being taken in a thunderstorm???
Not Impressive....NHC is not being conservative. I would still call it a TD.


All data points to a TS, so calling it a TD would be pointless.
Quoting extreme236:


All data points to a TS, so calling it a TD would be pointless.


and wrong lol
Quoting scott39:
Why would you call it a TD?



Because hes an Amatuer Meterolgist who is mis interpeting the graphics.

It should Actually be a 45Mph or 50mph tropical storm.
I would not want to be sailing with you all over! You've swallowed too much saltwater with your analysis.
Actually, it IS a 45 mph TS.

AL, 01, 2010062612, , BEST, 0, 171N, 857W, 40, 1004, TS

That's in knots, so 45 mph at 11 a.m. Judging by satellite presentation.. maybe even a little higher. Recon will be there before 2 p.m today, we should get a better idea on strength.

A very impressive looking TS.
Quoting Grothar:
Hard to believe what the GFDL has at 102 hours.


wt a cat 3 outside my door lol
1880. Grothar
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

!!!!!!!!!!!!WHat the.........!!!!It even looks like a TS already!And have you noticed the eastern Carib. has been cooling up a bit.


Yes, I have noticed that. The current high SST's we have experienced have been unusual. They can cool down for many different reasons when they get that high, even going into summer. Seriously, atmo can give you a much better explanation than I. The assumption is that they Atlantic basin is just going to get warmer and warmer; not always the case. We have to monitor that Africa Wave very closely
1881. cg2916
What an interesting way to kick off the season, with a storm like Alex!
Some of the models (yesterday) never brought Alex to a Hurricane because of sheer considerations in the Gulf......That part of the equation does not change once He crosses the Yucatan........
1883. Patrap
There is no such thing as a amateur met,..no more than someone saying their a amateur Astronaut.

Either you are..or your Schooling to be one.

Quoting Tropical Storm Alex:

I EAT EPAC STORMS FOR BREAKFAST!!!!!


But yeah, check out that size comparison between Alex and Darby!
1885. twooks
Quoting portcharlotte:
We now have a heading to the northwest. As mentioned days ago, the stronger the storm the more north it will go. The stronger system will go to the trough. This is a central Gulf/NE Gulf event. IMO


I agree I'm seeing a pure NW direction as well. I'm not really to say it's a central Gulf event until it exists the Yucatan, but imo the direction has changed.

Also, I bet yall the NHC won't upgrade the winds on the next advisory :P


has only 45mpn winds with 1001.6mb
1888. scott39
Sallingallover, The floor is yours. Im interested into why you think Alex is not Alex?
its amazing to me that on sheer size factor, celia was only half the size of alex currently when she was at her largest... scary...look at this nexsat....thing of beauty developing...too bad it isnt a fish being allowed to do this in open water....
1890. Grothar
Quoting btwntx08:

wt a cat 3 outside my door lol


No bt, that particular model shows 118kts at 950 mb. Take approx 25% off of that and it would be closer to 80kts. Roughly 102 mph. Don't worry yet.
Since Alex does not have a well defined area of convection if it keeps moving slowly and rains a lot over the surrounding land areas on three sides even though it has good outflow it may cause a cooling over the land areas which may hamper further development
mornign wunderbloggers,not out of the question that we could have a cat2 alex in the next24-36hrs,and if thats the case could just scrape the NE tip of the yucatan.......alex will be a hurricane by tonight IMO...
Quoting portcharlotte:
We now have a heading to the northwest. As mentioned days ago, the stronger the storm the more north it will go. The stronger system will go to the trough. This is a central Gulf/NE Gulf event. IMO

not going there hardly model support from it sry lol
Quoting Grothar:


No bt, that particular model shows 118kts at 950 mb. Take approx 25% off of that and it would be closer to 80kts. Roughly 102 mph. Don't worry yet.


I don't think it's quite as large as a 25% reduction. I always thought you reduce that number by 10-15%.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


has only 45mpn winds with 1001.6mb


ive learned not to go by this graphic...usually late, and half the time is way off...lol...just in my experience...lol...

hows it going this morning vabeach?
1896. Drakoen
Quoting watchingnva:


ive learned not to go by this graphic...usually late, and half the time is way off...lol...just in my experience...lol...

hows it going this morning vabeach?


goin good, hot as heck again this morning, wish a storm could come though and cool it down. you?
Quoting Grothar:


No bt, that particular model shows 118kts at 950 mb. Take approx 25% off of that and it would be closer to 80kts. Roughly 102 mph. Don't worry yet.

well can u say dolly pt 2
1900. Patrap
Quoting watchingnva:


ive learned not to go by this graphic...usually late, and half the time is way off...lol...just in my experience...lol...

hows it going this morning vabeach?


Yeah,..thats a Lousy rumor.


Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis

Currently, this product combines information from five data sources to create a mid-level (near 700 hPa) wind analysis using a variational approach described in Knaff and DeMaria (2006). The resulting mid-level winds are then adjusted to the surface applying a very simple single column approach. Over the ocean an adjustment factor is applied, which is a function of radius from the center ranging from 0.9 to 0.7, and the winds are turned 20 degrees toward low pressure. Over land, the oceanic winds are reduced by an additional 20% and turned an additional 20 degrees toward low pressure.

The five datasets currently used are the ASCAT scatterometer, which is adjusted upward to 700 hPa in the same manner as the surface winds are adjusted downward, feature track winds in the mid-levels from the operational satellite centers, 2-d flight-level winds estimated from infrared imagery (see Mueller et al 2006 ) and 2-d winds created from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)- derived height fields and solving the non-linear balance equations as described in Bessho et al (2006). Past analyses also made use of the QuickSCAT scatterometer (i.e., prior to November 2009), but this satellite is no longer producing observations of surface vector winds.

Each of the input data are shown in subpanels following the analysis (i.e., storm-relative). Shown are AMSU winds, Cloud-drift/IR/WV winds, IR-proxy winds and Scatterometer winds; QuikSCAT, when available for past analyses (BLUE) and ASCAT (RED). All input data in these panels has been reduced to a 10-m land or oceanic exposure depending on the location (i.e., non-surface data has been reduced to a 10-m exposure).

How good are the wind estimates? Here is the verification based upon 2007 data . These statistics were based on 1) H*Wind data when available and 2) best track wind radii estimates from NHC. In interpreting the wind radii verification it is important to not that the zero wind radii are included in the verification, which both skews and inflates the MAE verification statistics. Note however detection is improved over climatology provided by Knaff et al. (2007).



Good morning.
Quoting btwntx08:

not going there hardly model support from it sry lol

yes, we know that you have been wanting this one. Hope you get your wish! In fact, you can have them all.
Quoting extreme236:


I don't think it's quite as large as a 25% reduction. I always thought you reduce that number by 10-15%.


HOUR:102.0 LONG: -95.52 LAT: 25.02 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.46 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 98.94
1904. scott39
Quoting sailingallover:
Since Alex does not have a well defined area of convection if it keeps moving slowly and rains a lot over the surrounding land areas on three sides even though it has good outflow it may cause a cooling over the land areas which may hamper further development
Ok, So you think developement will be slow, do you still think Alex is a TD?
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I have noticed that. The current high SST's we have experienced have been unusual. They can cool down for many different reasons when they get that high, even going into summer. Seriously, atmo can give you a much better explanation than I. The assumption is that they Atlantic basin is just going to get warmer and warmer; not always the case. We have to monitor that Africa Wave very closely

Winds have more to do with SST trends, week to week, than sunlight. The combination of tropical waves (thus clouds) moving through and the trade winds picking up in between the waves has cooled the SSTs a little recently.

No, they aren't going to keep cooling for long, either. Winds pick up, the evap cooling drops the temp a little, then a new, cooler, steady state is reached...until something changes (probably not any changes to be had in the direction of cooler).
On the other hand if it does get across the Yucatan there is a short 12-24 hour window for intensification.
1907. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:

I think the long term track also has something to do with how well Alex spins back up with these OHC values on the other side of the Yucatan. We have seen storms do well with them and we have seen otherwise. Not optimum, but could be enough.

And the strengthening after the Yucatan has a lot to do with track behaviors, IMHO.



G'Morn, SJ.


You know I hate to agree with you, but that is a very correct observation you made there. IF the systems is much stronger than they currently estimate, how much more of a poleward movement would you expect?
Quoting StormJunkie:
True atmo and good morning to you too.



Hey... I know you. :)
1909. scott39
Quoting StormW:


No.
No to which part?
Quoting kmanislander:
Winds gusting to 34 mph on the SW end of Grand Cayman now.
Hey Kman wet day huh! It's been raining on and off here in West Bay all night. Some heavy rain now with winds of around 30 in gusts, at the momemnt. Helping to give us that much needed rain.
All I see is a northward movement and maybe a tad bit of a western movement if ALEX gets any stronger we might see a NEward movement
Quoting atmoaggie:

Winds have more to do with SST trends, week to week, than sunlight. The combination of tropical waves (thus clouds) moving through and the trade winds picking up in between the waves has cooled the SSTs a little recently.

No, they aren't going to keep cooling for long, either. Winds pick up, the evap cooling drops the temp a little, then a new, cooler, steady state is reached...until something changes (probably not any changes to be had in the direction of cooler).

Ditto..it even felt like winter here yesterday from all the cold air from all the convection over the last week.

What I see is that next week SST's will be where they should be for the beginning of July. Unorganized convection is a wonderful thing in my book...
Quoting BiloxiIsle:

yes, we know that you have been wanting this one. Hope you get your wish! In fact, you can have them all.

im just going by models there hardly support overthere wouldnt know it happen and im not all of them lol
1916. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:

Winds have more to do with SST trends, week to week, than sunlight. The combination of tropical waves (thus clouds) moving through and the trade winds picking up in between the waves has cooled the SSTs a little recently.

No, they aren't going to keep cooling for long, either. Winds pick up, the evap cooling drops the temp a little, then a new, cooler, steady state is reached...until something changes (probably not any changes to be had in the direction of cooler).


See StormFreakisher, I told you he would know.
Thanks, atmo.


wow...over half the gulf in size...lol...man...
1919. jpsb
"Efforts to siphon oil from the ruptured well in the Gulf of Mexico will be put on hold for the next five days. A storm, bringing with it gale-force winds, is threatening the area and the U.S. Coastguard are saying the time is needed to shut down the operation. While work is stopped, the oil could flow into the sea unchecked for the next two weeks."

Very bad news.
Quoting EasttexasAggie:


Howdy weatherman!

Why do you think this?

I think its being pulled farther northwest by the recent burst of convection.
Hey smmc ;) I think you're right...We have seen each other around here before. Hope you and the fam are doing well.
I AM SILL WATCHING 94L
For those in the Yucatan and Belize here are more tips from NOAA:

If Staying in a Home...

Turn refrigerator to maximum cold and keep closed.

Turn off utilities if told to do so by authorities.

Turn off propane tanks.

Unplug small appliances.

Fill bathtub and large containers with water in case tap
water is unavailable. Use water in bathtubs for cleaning
and flushing only. Do NOT drink it.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings: Take these
alerts seriously. Although Tropical Storms have
lower wind speeds than hurricanes, they often bring
life-threatening flooding and dangerous winds. Take
precautions!
NEW BLOG
I suspect a 45 mph TS at 11am
Question...CNN mets keep saying that if the storm passed directly over the oil spill it would be a better case scenario than if the storm passed to the west of it. I understand the argument they're using, but any opinions on this? TIA.
Quoting jpsb:
"Efforts to siphon oil from the ruptured well in the Gulf of Mexico will be put on hold for the next five days. A storm, bringing with it gale-force winds, is threatening the area and the U.S. Coastguard are saying the time is needed to shut down the operation. While work is stopped, the oil could flow into the sea unchecked for the next two weeks."

Very bad news.



Darnit.
1928. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Pure NW motion.
I would not be too sold on Alex crossing Yucatan. It may hug the coast or just clip the northeast corner. I've seen this before..
Whoever made Alex mad this morning, fess up!
Good morning, everyone.

Alex is an impressively large system. Currently, its spiral bands are gathering heat from the Caribbean, GOM, and East Pacific, and even the Gulf Stream. It is so large that much stronger Darby will likely be pulled to the east by the storm's circulation, and I expect a category one landfall on Guerro State, Mexico.



Although Alex is now forecast by most models to hit Mexico and not the CONUS, it could, like the remnants of Dolly 2008, track across the Mideastern States, bringing thunderstorms, and into the open Atlantic (a slight chance of tropical or extratropical development). Remember what flooding can do in Mexico, especially with such a large storm. Link Link
During a Hurricane:

If a hurricane is likely in your area, you should:

Listen to the radio or TV for information.

Secure your home, close storm shutters, and secure outdoor objects or bring them indoors.

Turn off utilities if instructed to do so. Otherwise, turn the refrigerator thermostat to its coldest setting and keep its doors closed.

Turn off propane tanks.· Avoid using the phone, except for serious emergencies.

Moor your boat if time permits.

Ensure a supply of water for sanitary purposes such as cleaning and flushing toilets. Fill the bathtub and other large containers with water.

You should evacuate under the following conditions:

If you are directed by local authorities to do so. Be sure to follow their instructions.

If you live in a mobile home or temporary structure—such shelters are particularly hazardous during hurricanes no matter how well fastened to the ground.

If you live in a high-rise building—hurricane winds are stronger at higher elevations.

If you live on the coast, on a floodplain, near a river, or on an inland waterway.

If you feel you are in danger.
If you are unable to evacuate, go to your safe room. If you do not have one, follow these guidelines:

Stay indoors during the hurricane and away from windows and glass doors.

Close all interior doors—secure and brace external doors.

Keep curtains and blinds closed. Do not be fooled if there is a lull; it could be the eye of the storm - winds will pick up again.

Take refuge in a small interior room, closet, or hallway on the lowest level.

Lie on the floor under a table or another sturdy object.

*tips from FEMA*
brownsville nws this morning
.LONG TERM /7 PM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...IN A NUTSHELL...THE LONG
TERM FORECAST CAN BE SUMMARIZED IN ONE WORD: DIFFICULT. DECIDED TO
MAKE NO RADICAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS A GREAT DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
TROPICAL STORM ALEX...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAY ISLANDS. SUITE OF FORECAST
MODELS PLACES FUTURE POSITION OF ALEX ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MOVING ALEX TOWARDS THE UPPER
EAST COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE STRENGTH OF A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF JULY 1. FOR NOW...DECIDED TO
INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST FOR DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS BASED UPON SCENARIO OF ALEX NOT MOVING DIRECTLY OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...A MORE DIRECT STRIKE BY ALEX
WOULD OF COURSE RESULT IN MORE COPIOUS RAINFALL COVERAGE AND
STRONGER WINDS...SO RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR SUCCESSIVE FORECASTS. THANKS TO WFO CORPUS CHRISTI FOR
CLOSE FORECAST COORDINATION EARLIER TONIGHT.

&&
Quoting StormW:
img src="Photobucket" alt="" />

That wave looks impressive.
WOW LOOK AT 94L
1938. Grothar
Quoting extreme236:


I don't think it's quite as large as a 25% reduction. I always thought you reduce that number by 10-15%.


Actually it is between 15% and 25%. I always use the higher percentage, because it tends to be closer to what actual occurs. Also, it scares people less when you say 98mph than 115mph. No reason to alarm people unnecessarily. They do well enough by themselves.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
All I see is a northward movement and maybe a tad bit of a western movement if ALEX gets any stronger we might see a NEward movement


The only problem I have with the GFDL and HWRF is the fact that if it does get that strong, its going to have poleward pull.
Quoting StormW:


Look at that wave on the border of Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria and Benin!
Quoting scott39:
Ok, So you think developement will be slow, do you still think Alex is a TD?

Based on the Flight data yes. Now it is probably a TS but not a very well organized one.
It got lopsided convection, wind field. water vapor, cloud coverage. No eye. But it is organizing a bit more over the last few hours. It does have good outflow.
AND it is not that big. There is a lot of clouds and outlying convection but the wind .field over 35knts is only 30nm acoss

Now what's good about it??
1942. Grothar
I still say my image has more detail, Storm. And mine is bigger than yours. More people can see it better. (Thanks for the update)


Why hasn't recon take off yet?
1944. Grothar
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Why hasn't recon take off yet?


The flight attendants are still on a break.
GFSE (extended ensemble)shows an approach to the SW TX coast followed by a coast-hugging ENE drift with eventual landfall near Galveston on the third, as a TS. Of course, who knows. Uncertainty is all we can be certain of.
Quoting jpsb:
"Efforts to siphon oil from the ruptured well in the Gulf of Mexico will be put on hold for the next five days. A storm, bringing with it gale-force winds, is threatening the area and the U.S. Coastguard are saying the time is needed to shut down the operation. While work is stopped, the oil could flow into the sea unchecked for the next two weeks."

Very bad news.


Thanks. Nothing about it in local paper. I found the link though.
http://www.euronews.net/2010/06/26/operation-to-stop-oil-leak-in-gulf-of-mexico-halted/
Some interesting things that the models do:

CMC crosses Darby over Mexico, then Alex absorbs it while making landfall on northeastern Mexico.

GFS splits Alex into two parts, one sinking southwest like Lorenzo 2007, and the other making landfall on the Florida Panhandle before intensifying in the Gulf Stream to hit Nova Scotia while three smaller vorticies trail behind it, and it also forecasts the wave over the Sahel to develop into a CV wave.

NOGAPS merges Alex and Darby over Mexico, and develops a second Atlantic low in Alex's footsteps from one of its current spiral bands.
1948. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!
Recon has just taken off
I estimate we have 30-35mph wind gusts here in South Sound,Grand Cayman
This CDO is crazy, looks like a WPAC storm:

Not buying the 11AM position and movement..
Recon will find this to be so
Good Morning All!!!!!Woke up to find Tropical Storm Alex was born!!!
1954. Hhunter
Quoting StormW:


Reminds me of ALLEN

those are scary words in these parts...
Looks to be heading in a WNW direction with a strong implication to the West... It is feeling that ridge...

I agree I think Recon will find that.
1956. Hhunter


Allen Sattelite picLink
1957. IKE
Not that anyone cares...but...Man it is hot outside. I just got through vacuuming my car and mowing my front yard. I'm soaked in sweat!

Looks like Alex will be onshore shortly....10:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 26
Location: 17.3°N 86.1°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Yes and it is taking the longest track over the Yucatan... I guess he is stocking up on his food source now.
1959. Hhunter
1960. Hhunter
There is ship 120 north of the center with sustained winds of 39kts. Right off the bat if you are paying attention, you up the winds.
StormW, I can not agree with you more..Today's NHC boys go over board in their analysis and need every parameter to fall in place with their formula. The old group used common sense
and their eyes!
Here's Bastardi's Comments at 9 AM

SATURDAY 9 AM
WHY IS TPC SO SLOW TO REACT.

I think its because they try to self verify. This is obviously stronger than they have. They get glued to models and dont react to the obvious. So what is probably already a 60 mph storm that may be a hurricane is still be called a 40 mph storm. There is ship 120 north of the center with sustained winds of 39kts. Right off the bat if you are paying attention, you up the winds. The look of the storm.. you up the winds.

One of these days, something is going to pop, bigger than Humberto on 07, in someones back yard. Actually the last Alex was fiasco on the outer banks as its intensity went through the roof relative to their forecast. Once a storm is a cat 3 or 4 or big, then its shooting fish in a barrel with the models, but this is like so many other weaker systems we see starting to wrap up, where good old fashioned synoptic sense and the willingness to look whips the other ideas

Copy then paste 28.7n88.4w, TAM, MOB, PBI, SAL, 16.5N83.5W, 16.6N83.7W, 16.7N84.4W, 16.5N84.5W, 16.9N84.9W, 17.0N85.3W-17.3N86.1W
into the GreatCircleMapper. The red line shows the heading based on the last two positions. Scrolling below the map shows TSAlex was heading 291.4degreesWestSouthWest
and traveled a distance of ~57miles* (~91.7kilometres)over three 3hours;
ie TropicalStormAlex's center moved at a rate of ~19mph (30.6kph).

* A bit less if calculated for a perfectly spherical Earth -- 56.33miles -- but the Earth is actually an oblate spheroid (a "squashed ball"). And the site uses the official navigational template before rounding.
I do hope someone answers me today :( I was wondering about this second invest over by the leeward islands any thoughts on where that one might be heading
Hello anyone out there
cmc 12z puts a cat 2 on port aransas. but we know to take this model with a grain of salt

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010062612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Quoting oceanblues32:
I do hope someone answers me today :( I was wondering about this second invest over by the leeward islands any thoughts on where that one might be heading


Bermuda needs to watch...
Go Deutschland
1968. hulakai
According to NOAA's historical tool a dozen August storms passed through 91L's current vicinity. 2 Fizzled and the rest went on to become majors. 2 W Gulf, 2 N Gulf (Andrew 2nd landfall), 4 Fla.(Frances, Andrew, David, Dora), 3 fish (one of which was last year's Bill, a memorable event for e coast surfers).

If any of you mets have any pull, would appreciate an encore of Bill