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Absurd January Warmth in Arctic Brings Record-Low Sea Ice Extent

By: Bob Henson 7:23 PM GMT on February 04, 2016

This winter’s freezing season in the Arctic is falling short. The extent of Arctic sea ice this week is hovering near record-low values for early February, based on observations that extend back to the start of satellite monitoring in 1979. Data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) shows that last month had the lowest overall Arctic sea ice extent of any January in the satellite record (Figure 1). As detailed in an NSIDC report on Thursday, the total extent of 13.53 million square kilometers (5.2 million square miles) was 1.04 million sq km below the 1981-2010 average and 90,000 sq km below the record from January 2011.



Figure 1. Departures from average in Arctic sea ice extent for January, 1979-2016. Image credit: NSIDC.


Figure 2. Sea ice extent for January 2016 (white), compared to the median January location of the ice edge for the period since 1979 (magenta line). The largest areas of open water where ice is usually present are in the Barents Sea, north of Scandinavia. Image credit: NSIDC.

Only a few weeks are left before the return of polar sunshine puts an end to the freeze-up that typically starts in September and peaks in late February or March. Last year’s maximum extent occurred quite early--on February 25--and it was the lowest in the satellite record, at 14.54 million square kilometers. This year appears to have a reasonable shot at breaking that record.

The not-so-frozen North
Hand in hand with the skimpy ice cover, temperatures across the Arctic have been extraordinarily warm for midwinter. Just before New Year’s, a slug of mild air pushed temperatures above freezing to within 200 miles of the North Pole. That warm pulse quickly dissipated, but it was followed by a series of intense North Atlantic cyclones that sent very mild air poleward, in tandem with a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation during the first three weeks of the month (see Figure 4).


Figure 3. Average air temperatures over the Arctic for January 2016 at the 925-mb level (about 2000 feet above the surface), expressed as departures from the long-term January average in degrees C. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.


“January was absurdly warm in the Arctic,” said NSIDC director Mark Serreze. According to data from NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Laboratory, the average surface temperature in January between latitude 60°N and the North Pole was -18.2°C (-0.8°F), topping the previous record of -20.6°C (-5.1°F) set in January 2005. Just above the surface (925 mb), the average January temperature of -14.2°C (5.9°F) was well above the previous record of -16.5°C (0.7°F), also set in 2005. The fact that average readings at this level are warmer than at the surface reflects the strong inversion typical of the lower Arctic atmosphere, especially in winter, as cold air hugs the surface and milder air flows just above it.


Figure 4. This cross section through the polar vortex (between latitudes 65°N and 90°N) shows how the height of pressure surfaces (shown in millibars/hPa on the left-hand axis) varied over time from October 2015 to early February 2016. Red values show where a given pressure surface was unusually high in the atmosphere, corresponding to warmer-than-average temperatures. The temperatures have been normalized so that the right-hand legend shows standard deviations from the mean. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Anyone for bathing in the Barents?
Some of the most visible ice-extent deficits right now are in the Barents Sea, north of Scandinavia. Warm waters carried by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC) can push all the way northeast into the Barents, making it one of the most variable of the seas that fringe the Arctic. Data from Crysophere Today (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) show that sea ice now covers less than half the area across the Barents that it did a year ago at this time. The difference in area--roughly 350,000 square kilometers--is bigger than the state of New Mexico. (Note that sea ice area is a somewhat different index than sea ice extent, as explained by NSIDC.)

Near the northwest corner of the Barents Sea, temperatures in Svalbard, Norway--at 78°N, the northernmost civilian community on Earth--have been far above average for the entire last month. From January 5 to February 3, the average in Svalbard was -4.7°C (23.5°F), which is a full 19°F above the norm--remarkable for a 30-day period. The coldest reading of the whole period, -11.9°C, was still above the average January high of -13.0°C! Temperatures pushed above freezing on four days, reaching 4.5°C on January 24 (still not a monthly record, though). The WU forecast shows Svalbard remaining unusually mild for at least the next week, with lows at or above the average highs.


Figure 5. The area covered by sea ice in the Barents Sea as of February 4 was around 250,000 square kilometers (right side of black trace), less than half of the value a year ago (left side of black trace). The red trace shows departures from average for the time of year. Image credit: Cryosphere Today/University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

The outlook for 2016
Most of the attention around Arctic sea ice has focused on the dramatic losses in summertime, especially over the past decade. The minimum yearly extent set new record lows in 2007 and again in 2012. Both of these minimums were followed by a year or two of quasi-recovery, but then the long-term trend toward lower summer minimums resumed.

Could 2016 set another new record minimum? It’s far too soon to make any confident predictions. A record-low maximum could give the ice a head start on 2016 melting, but the ultimate outcome will depend mainly on weather patterns still to come, especially in early summer. Warm southerly winds and clear, sunny skies during June and July can make a huge difference in paving the way for a record minimum in September.


Figure 6. The years 2012 (green dashed line) and 2015 (blue line) show how the state of sea ice in late winter and spring doesn’t necessarily correspond to its minimum in September. Sea ice extent in March 2012 was near its long-term average in April, yet it was at a record low in September. Late winter ice was much less extensive in 2015, but that year’s minimum was still considerably higher than in 2012. The extent for 2016 is shown in the red line at far left. Image credit: NSIDC.


Those on the front lines of experimental sea ice prediction stress the role of weather conditions in modulating how any one season will fare. In a 2015 review paper for EOS, Julienne Stroeve (NSDIC) and colleagues from the Sea Ice Prediction Network took a look at what recent efforts have accomplished and what may be possible down the line. Since 2008, the network has issued monthly compilations of sea ice forecasts (available online) updated through the summer, created by more than a dozen participants using a variety of methods. The average of these predictions tends to do somewhat better than any one approach, but even that skill is still limited, especially more than a month or two in advance of the September minimum.

“Because the atmosphere is mostly unpredictable beyond 1 or 2 weeks, the sea ice forecasts initialized in late spring may not be able to accurately predict sea ice features that develop as a result of extreme summer atmospheric conditions,” said the EOS paper.

Idealized experiments suggest that the state of Arctic sea ice might be predictable with some skill as far as two years in advance. To reach this theoretical goal, we would need major advances in both Arctic observations and modeling. There’s another catch: climate change itself may make the task harder. “Interannual variability of summer sea ice extent will likely increase in coming decades,” noted Stroeve and colleagues, “and some scientists suggest that this might lead to a reduction in predictability.”

We’ll be back with a new post on Friday.

Bob Henson

Arctic Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The Antarctic sea ice is running less than the average for the date as well.

Blocking ridge building in along the California coast, despite the impressive frontal band to the west. Forecast for the SuperBowl weekend is clear and warm.
More than 1 in of rain here in Orange Park, still raining heavily.
Quoting 5. Tazmanian:

hey bob


we have been waiting on the report on Hurricane Patricia has nhc just come out with Hurricane Patricia report we been waiting all AM

not some ice age report


Holy cow, they upped its max intensity to 215mph and a MSLP of 872mb! That makes Patricia, in terms of MSLP, the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded. What a freak of a storm.
Nice to see these Arctic anomalies being brought to attention and aired.
Although a long way from most peoples sights and minds these temp variations in the Arctic and of course the Antarctic are going to have a major effect on planetary climate changes and variations in the very near future.

Here's a sneak peek at what's going on and melting away down in the South Pole area as well, you could sail around a lot of Antarctic's coastline about now.

Ooh lala
Quoting 8. washingtonian115:

Ooh lala



Next week's event could be something. Tonight and tomorrow may get things looking white again.
Thanks, Bob. You lost me on this one -

"The coldest reading of the whole period, -11.9°C, was still above the average January high of 13.0°C!"

Is that supposed to be that that low of -11.9c was still 13c warmer than the average high for the period? My pea size brain isn't getting what you wrote. :-)
Three good model agreement on the potential Miller B storm: CMC, EURO, and UKMET.
Quoting 7. PlazaRed:

Nice to see these Arctic anomalies being brought to attention and aired.
Although a long way from most peoples sights and minds these temp variations in the Arctic and of course the Antarctic are going to have a major effect on planetary climate changes and variations in the very near future.

Here's a sneak peek at what's going on and melting away down in the South Pole area as well, you could sail around a lot of Antarctic's coastline about now.


Of course, it's summer in Antarctica, so the melting is going to be more variable year to year during the "warm" season. What's happening in the Arctic is doubly weird since it's the height of the "cold" season there. I think there was some expectation that El Nino was going to bring more storms and more modified tropical air due to the more northerly position of the subtropical jet. I don't think the amount of ice melt we're seeing now was expected by even the most pessimistic forecasts.
Quoting 10. Drakoen:



Next week's event could be something. Tonight and tomorrow may get things looking white again.
Snow piles of 3-4 feet are still left in some parking lots.With Tuesday's storm the cold afterward will be sustained and another arctic blast will come down potentially setting the stage for a traditional presidents day storm.There are some signals right now on the models but we'll have to wait.
But, but, but, Ted Cruz said the satellite data shows no warming!!!
Interesting post.
Quoting 6. CybrTeddy:



Holy cow, they upped its max intensity to 215mph and a MSLP of 872mb! That makes Patricia, in terms of MSLP, the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded. What a freak of a storm.
I wrote in the previous blog -

"I'll be interested to read what Dr. Masters has to say about this. Patricia shows the effect of several Gulf of Tehuantepec gales in terms of helping the storm form. Without those Gulf gales, it's not likely the Patricia would have been as a strong a storm as it ultimately turned out to be. These gale events are common during most summer and fall seasons, but they are much stronger during an El Nino. Given the strength of this El Nino, they were probably the strongest that we've seen in the time of reliable records. Unfortunately, our knowledge of eastern Pacific hurricanes is the poorest of hurricanes occurring almost anywhere in either the Atlantic or the Pacific, with reliable records only going back a little over 35 years. There may have been other storms like Patricia in the past, small and very intense, but we just don't the records to be able to confirm or deny that."

These Gulf gales haven't gotten a lot of attention in the past, but they are one of the important mechanisms in forming eastern Pacific tropical lows with the right ingredients from Central America. There's a very large Gulf (or gap) gale building now, with storm force winds likely by Saturday and extending into next week. This is being caused by the strong cold fronts coming into the Gulf of Mexico that will be reinforced over the next five days. You can see the clouds being created by the gap gale already in the satellite photo. There aren't favorable conditions now for the formation of a tropical low, but events like this bear watching as we head back into the season.



I'm sure Dr. Masters will post his analysis about Patricia in a future blog. Since it's not an ongoing event like the Arctic ice melt, a blog about it will be done when the time to get it done presents itself. It's just some fine points on history.
Thank you Bob!

Also, how reliable is the GEM global model with Temperature prediction? Because it feels the GFS has a better grasp on the cold snap that'll hit Florida this weekend into next week.
Quoting 11. sar2401:

Thanks, Bob. You lost me on this one -

"The coldest reading of the whole period, -11.9°C, was still above the average January high of 13.0°C!"

Is that supposed to be that that low of -11.9c was still 13c warmer than the average high for the period? My pea size brain isn't getting what you wrote. :-)


I took it as -13 C.
Thanks for the update Mr Henson! Good Afternoon Class!
Quoting 13. sar2401:

Of course, it's summer in Antarctica, so the melting is going to be more variable year to year during the "warm" season. What's happening in the Arctic is doubly weird since it's the height of the "cold" season there. I think there was some expectation that El Nino was going to bring more storms and more modified tropical air due to the more northerly position of the subtropical jet. I don't think the amount of ice melt we're seeing now was expected by even the most pessimistic forecasts.


The main reason that I posted the Antarctic ice map was to show how little ice is there at the moment. This lack of ice is exposing the shores of Antarctica and allowing the surface of the sea to interact with the ice on the coasts and descending glaciers leading to increased melting. Obviously this is the end of summer for the Antarctic but its low sea ice levels are significant in the whole global picture.
The situation in the Northern Polar regions is already looking dire from an ice cover point of view as we speed up into the spring and melting season.
I personally would not be surprised to see a low record ice cover this year and with it also increased melting over the Greenland ice cap.

On a diverse but some what interesting note. In my house in Southern Spain, just south of Seville, I have a room which is totally unheated all the time. This year the minimum temp in there has been +14/C, last year and in fact most previous years the minimum temp I normally record is about +9/C. so I am running +5/C above normal in my house.
I have been recording these temps for 15 years now and this year is the warmest I have ever seen.
The whole country side around here is emerald green covered with blossoms and flowers with mostly endless blue skies and very little rain this year again.
Quoting 20. DCSwithunderscores:



I took it as -13 C.
Makes sense.
Quoting 22. PlazaRed:



The main reason that I posted the Antarctic ice map was to show how little ice is there at the moment. This lack of ice is exposing the shores of Antarctica and allowing the surface of the sea to interact with the ice on the coasts and descending glaciers leading to increased melting. Obviously this is the end of summer for the Antarctic but its low sea ice levels are significant in the whole global picture.
The situation in the Northern Polar regions is already looking dire from an ice cover point of view as we speed up into the spring and melting season.
I personally would not be surprised to see a low record ice cover this year and with it also increased melting over the Greenland ice cap.

On a diverse but some what interesting note. In my house in Southern Spain, just south of Seville, I have a room which is totally unheated all the time. This year the minimum temp in there has been +14/C, last year and in fact most previous years the minimum temp I normally record is about +9/C. so I am running +5/C above normal in my house.
I have been recording these temps for 15 years now and this year is the warmest I have ever seen.
The whole country side around here is emerald green covered with blossoms and flowers with mostly endless blue skies and very little rain this year again.
For some reason I have a hard time thinking of Spain as being largely desert like in climate. I shouldn't be, given its location and geography, but still ... The Spaniards must have felt very much at home in the American Southwest, and perhaps less so in the Guatemalan jungles ....
Thank You. You gave us some of the science of the warming trend in the Arctic which has been made worse this particular season in part due to the El Nino, storm systems, and AO pattern as you have noted. I am wondering of the impact, this season in particular, on the wildlife habitat, migration patterns, and hunting-fishing seasons for the indigenous populations that rely on the ice (as opposed to a lack thereof)......................Not looking good for the Arctic habitat anyway you cut it in the coming decades.
Quoting 15. science101:

But, but, but, Ted Cruz said the satellite data shows no warming!!!
Cruz also said that President Obama is just a social worker who wants to put ISIS on Medicaid...Sarc flag at full mast..:)
12z Euro.
Quoting 10. Drakoen:



Next week's event could be something. Tonight and tomorrow may get things looking white again.
Looks brutal.
Quoting 24. BahaHurican:

For some reason I have a hard time thinking of Spain as being largely desert like in climate. I shouldn't be, given its location and geography, but still ... The Spaniards must have felt very much at home in the American Southwest, and perhaps less so in the Guatemalan jungles ....

I can assure you that its so green in the winter its hard to look at.
I had 2 clients from Vancouver over there last week to buy a large amount of our olive oil and they took over a 1000 photos of the amount of green there is here.
Added to this the desert area is very small, where they made a lot of the spaghetti westerns about 40 years ago.
What throws people is that when most people come here on holiday it summer and then its very dry and a bit harsh from the end of May until Septembers end.
Meanwhile we are always thinking about how this climate change and ice melt is going to affect us, as there is no real safe haven even though from here the Arctic is so far away.
Here is a photo from my WU uploads of about this time of year here.

Quoting 5. Tazmanian:

hey bob


we have been waiting on the report on Hurricane Patricia has nhc just come out with Hurricane Patricia report we been waiting all AM

not some ice age report


so write your own blog.
Based on recent model performance and trends, we somewhat favor the solution of the European, Canadian and UK Met office over the GFS.-CWG
Develop the low a little quicker than the current European model forecast and we could have a rather significant snowstorm.

Wes Junker from CWG
HRRR 20z thinks we need to be under an advisory for tomorrow....Maybe a good day to work from home.

Quoting 34. Drakoen:

HRRR 20z thinks we need to be under an advisory for tomorrow....Maybe a good day to work from home.


NAM as well.
Thanks, Mr. Henson!

I have found out the following correlation: if there is an active hurricane season, the departure of minimum Arctic sea ice extent from previous year tends to be more negative, when linear trends are substracted. Therefore, based on the hurricane season prediction I gave to MaxWeather, I'm now going to predict, that this year, the minimum Arctic sea ice extent will be 3.955 million square kilometers... plus or minus some millions of sq.km :)
NWS Wilmington NC ‏@NWSWilmingtonNC 31s31 seconds ago

At Wilmington International Airport the total rainfall for this event from 10 PM Wed through 4 PM is 2.97". More is expected #ncwx #scwx

When you look at a polar shot of the earth, northern North America, northern Europe, and a large part of China-Russia are just a relative heartbeat, and polar jet away, from the Arctic Circle................................Just sayin.


18z GFS, low is closer to the coast this run.
How did we go from no snow to potentially 4 inches possible?
Quoting 6. CybrTeddy:



Holy cow, they upped its max intensity to 215mph and a MSLP of 872mb! That makes Patricia, in terms of MSLP, the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded. What a freak of a storm.

Here's a bit of info I posted on the last blog at about the time it expired:-

"Hurricane Patricia Had Maximum Sustained Winds of 215 MPH!"
Here's a line from the article:-
"Before and after images showing the vegetation stripped from trees before and after Hurricane Patricia made landfall."
For anybody thinking that they have experienced severe change and the limits of weather induced alterations; take a look at these 2 photos.
After al this was not a passing tornado! This was sustained winds of 215 MPH!

Plus of course for those chomping at the bit! The Link.

Link
Quoting 30. PlazaRed:


I can assure you that its so green in the winter its hard to look at.
I had 2 clients from Vancouver over there last week to buy a large amount of our olive oil and they took over a 1000 photos of the amount of green there is here.
Added to this the desert area is very small, where they made a lot of the spaghetti westerns about 40 years ago.
What throws people is that when most people come here on holiday it summer and then its very dry and a bit harsh from the end of May until Septembers end.
Meanwhile we are always thinking about how this climate change and ice melt is going to affect us, as there is no real safe haven even though from here the Arctic is so far away.
Here is a photo from my WU uploads of about this time of year here.



Very similar to California, especially Central California. Very green, like now, during the rainy season, and hot and dry during the summer, except near the ocean. Southern California is more like southern Spain and Morocco.
Quoting 18. sar2401:

I wrote in the previous blog -

"I'll be interested to read what Dr. Masters has to say about this. Patricia shows the effect of several Gulf of Tehuantepec gales in terms of helping the storm form. Without those Gulf gales, it's not likely the Patricia would have been as a strong a storm as it ultimately turned out to be. These gale events are common during most summer and fall seasons, but they are much stronger during an El Nino. Given the strength of this El Nino, they were probably the strongest that we've seen in the time of reliable records. Unfortunately, our knowledge of eastern Pacific hurricanes is the poorest of hurricanes occurring almost anywhere in either the Atlantic or the Pacific, with reliable records only going back a little over 35 years. There may have been other storms like Patricia in the past, small and very intense, but we just don't the records to be able to confirm or deny that."

These Gulf gales haven't gotten a lot of attention in the past, but they are one of the important mechanisms in forming eastern Pacific tropical lows with the right ingredients from Central America. There's a very large Gulf (or gap) gale building now, with storm force winds likely by Saturday and extending into next week. This is being caused by the strong cold fronts coming into the Gulf of Mexico that will be reinforced over the next five days. You can see the clouds being created by the gap gale already in the satellite photo. There aren't favorable conditions now for the formation of a tropical low, but events like this bear watching as we head back into the season.



I'm sure Dr. Masters will post his analysis about Patricia in a future blog. Since it's not an ongoing event like the Arctic ice melt, a blog about it will be done when the time to get it done presents itself. It's just some fine points on history.

They may have some influence in stirring up disturbances in the wind flow pattern, but they are also notorious for producing strong upwelling of colder water which is a big damper on tropical development. During the summer, the warm water goes deeper and gales less frequent since cold, denser air doesn't get that far south.
18z GFS for the Monday-Tuesday storm, has the low further north, that's why it shows rain, I think GFS might have gotten spoiled by Snowzilla.
46. Climate175
5:07 PM EST on February 04, 2016
I think that solution will shift further south.The GFS also did that with snowverkill in 2010 which transferred off the coast from a clipper to a blizzard.GFS did not handle the storm correctly even 48 hours out from the event.
Quoting 38. Tazmanian:



how about you this worry about your self thank you

Taz, as its the middle of winter and we are on the subject of the Arctic ice, etc. You could always report yourself for being off topic and see what happens! A sort of a pastime during the mid winter calm!
No offence meant but I AM SURE THAT THE WU POWERS THAT BE. will attend to the subject of Patricia as soon as practical.
Quoting 11. sar2401:

Thanks, Bob. You lost me on this one -

"The coldest reading of the whole period, -11.9°C, was still above the average January high of 13.0°C!"

Is that supposed to be that that low of -11.9c was still 13c warmer than the average high for the period? My pea size brain isn't getting what you wrote. :-)


Darn! That should have been -13°C. Fixed now. It's always the final thing I add to a blog post that trips me up. Thanks for the catch, sar!
Quoting 47. washingtonian115:

46. Climate175
5:07 PM EST on February 04, 2016
I think that solution will shift further south.The GFS also did that with snowverkill in 2010 which transferred off the coast from a clipper to a blizzard.GFS did not handle the storm correctly even 48 hours out from the event.
It appears the GFS is a loner on this, the CMC, EURO, UKMET, NAVGEM, and JMA, all have the low further south of where the GFS has it. Shifts are incoming.
Quoting 51. Climate175:

It appears the GFS is a loner on this, the CMC, EURO, UKMET, NAVGEM, and JMA, all have the low further south of where the GFS has it. Shifts are incoming.
If the GFS shifts south then we could face a pretty good snow storm
Thanks for the excellent post Mr. Henson
Quoting 41. washingtonian115:

How did we go from no snow to potentially 4 inches possible?


Probably how west-central NC went from getting a foot or more to just three inches? :p

Quoting 48. PlazaRed:


Taz, as its the middle of winter and we are on the subject of the Arctic ice, etc. You could always report yourself for being off topic and see what happens! A sort of a pastime during the mid winter calm!
No offence meant but I AM SURE THAT THE WU POWERS THAT BE. will attend to the subject of Patricia as soon as practical.


They've also had three days to post analysis with January's data. Patricia's analysis came out today did it not? I'm sure we'll see something about it from the Doc or Bob tomorrow.
Quoting 14. washingtonian115:

Snow piles of 3-4 feet are still left in some parking lots. With Tuesday's storm the cold afterward will be sustained and another arctic blast will come down potentially setting the stage for a traditional presidents day storm.There are some signals right now on the models but we'll have to wait.


I would not know what to do with that much snow lasting for so long. I'd be like the Jamaican bobsledders getting off the plane in Canada in Cool Runnings.

Quoting 18. sar2401:

I wrote in the previous blog -

"I'll be interested to read what Dr. Masters has to say about this. Patricia shows the effect of several Gulf of Tehuantepec gales in terms of helping the storm form. Without those Gulf gales, it's not likely the Patricia would have been as a strong a storm as it ultimately turned out to be. These gale events are common during most summer and fall seasons, but they are much stronger during an El Nino. Given the strength of this El Nino, they were probably the strongest that we've seen in the time of reliable records. Unfortunately, our knowledge of eastern Pacific hurricanes is the poorest of hurricanes occurring almost anywhere in either the Atlantic or the Pacific, with reliable records only going back a little over 35 years. There may have been other storms like Patricia in the past, small and very intense, but we just don't the records to be able to confirm or deny that."

These Gulf gales haven't gotten a lot of attention in the past, but they are one of the important mechanisms in forming eastern Pacific tropical lows with the right ingredients from Central America. There's a very large Gulf (or gap) gale building now, with storm force winds likely by Saturday and extending into next week. This is being caused by the strong cold fronts coming into the Gulf of Mexico that will be reinforced over the next five days. You can see the clouds being created by the gap gale already in the satellite photo. There aren't favorable conditions now for the formation of a tropical low, but events like this bear watching as we head back into the season.


Now I got something else interesting to look and read up on tonight. On top of finding what I want my thesis to be on for next year and what I could research for phys-po. As long as I get to tune into the new 30 for 30 tonight, looks real good.
A real curse about that ice not forming this year!
Its going to complicate matters fro decades to come and what makes matters worse the whole global sea/ocean water system is more or less warming up bit by bit, so that's another nail in the cough-in of where we should be heading.

Well you could always look on the bright side of life and think that its going to be a lot faster to move shipping over the unfrozen Arctic waters than through the tropical canals of Panama and Egypt.

Link

Winter Weather Advisory hoisted for DC for 1-2 inches of snow.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
538 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

DCZ001-MDZ006-011-013-014-016-507-508-VAZ054-057- 050645-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0004.160205T0500Z-160205T1500Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-NORTHWEST HARFORD-
SOUTHEAST HARFORD-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-KING GEORGE-
538 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER 1 AM.

* HAZARD TYPES...ACCUMULATING SNOW AFTER 1 AM.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3 AM. A
PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7
AM...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES FRIDAY MID-MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER-TO-MID 30S...EXCEPT AROUND 30 NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&
Quoting 18. sar2401:

I wrote in the previous blog -

"I'll be interested to read what Dr. Masters has to say about this. Patricia shows the effect of several Gulf of Tehuantepec gales in terms of helping the storm form. Without those Gulf gales, it's not likely the Patricia would have been as a strong a storm as it ultimately turned out to be. These gale events are common during most summer and fall seasons, but they are much stronger during an El Nino. Given the strength of this El Nino, they were probably the strongest that we've seen in the time of reliable records. Unfortunately, our knowledge of eastern Pacific hurricanes is the poorest of hurricanes occurring almost anywhere in either the Atlantic or the Pacific, with reliable records only going back a little over 35 years. There may have been other storms like Patricia in the past, small and very intense, but we just don't the records to be able to confirm or deny that."

These Gulf gales haven't gotten a lot of attention in the past, but they are one of the important mechanisms in forming eastern Pacific tropical lows with the right ingredients from Central America. There's a very large Gulf (or gap) gale building now, with storm force winds likely by Saturday and extending into next week. This is being caused by the strong cold fronts coming into the Gulf of Mexico that will be reinforced over the next five days. You can see the clouds being created by the gap gale already in the satellite photo. There aren't favorable conditions now for the formation of a tropical low, but events like this bear watching as we head back into the season.



I'm sure Dr. Masters will post his analysis about Patricia in a future blog. Since it's not an ongoing event like the Arctic ice melt, a blog about it will be done when the time to get it done presents itself. It's just some fine points on history.


Hey Sar - Being a southern Oaxaca resident and surfer keeps me well tuned to the Tehuantepec gales that you are referring to and I did notice the Patricia formed during such an event but I must disagree that they are common summer/fall events. The real driver of these winds in not so much the cold front that crosses the GOM but the high pressure that follows it, at least that is my understanding. High pressure in the GOM and low pressure in the ITCZ and the colder sinking air in the GOM and the rising air over the relatively warmer pacific. I do know that the gales and even storm force wind events are much more frequent from November the March.
Now that that snow will coincide with the a.m rush hour commute,I have driven my car in old fashion to the 14th street bridge and abandoned it.
653
FXUS62 KILM 042015 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO DRIFT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
THE LAST OF THESE WAVES WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST OVERNIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
QUICK BOUT OF RAIN WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN.
ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

That'd be pretty neat.
Quoting 60. win1gamegiantsplease:

653
FXUS62 KILM 042015 CCA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO DRIFT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
THE LAST OF THESE WAVES WILL INTENSIFY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST OVERNIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY
AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
QUICK BOUT OF RAIN WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN.
ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

That'd be pretty neat.

Need some model agreement. Their wording is too conservative with this afternoon's runs: the GFS and NAM give a coating to 2", the ECMWF shows 1-4". Earlier runs didn't have anything though.
If the HRRR continues trending even further west like it has done now we could be looking at 4-5 inches.I didn't expect nothing like this to happen 12 hours ago.
Thanks Mr Henson, these are ominous signs coming from the top of our only planet.
___
Like I did last year, I'm probably gonna follow this melt season closely ; because a record bad start to the season doesn't necessarily mean a record low summer ice extent/volume (looking at the satellite record). Nevertheless I expect the 2012 record low extent to be tied/broken within the next 3 years.

Quoting 43. PlazaRed:
Here's a bit of info I posted on the last blog at about the time it expired:-
"Hurricane Patricia Had Maximum Sustained Winds of 215 MPH!"
Here's a line from the article:-
"Before and after images showing the vegetation stripped from trees before and after Hurricane Patricia made landfall."
For anybody thinking that they have experienced severe change and the limits of weather induced alterations; take a look at these 2 photos.
After al this was not a passing tornado! This was sustained winds of 215 MPH!

Plus of course for those chomping at the bit! The Link.
Link

On the visible image in the lower left corner you can also see the extra sediments carried out to the ocean because of the rainfall.

Yes, fortunately the radius of severe damage to the vegetation was limited to a relatively small area for a cat.5-and-plus hurricane, but the strength of the wind was impressive (I was watching a webcam close to the beach that finally went down after streaming online the beginning of the storm surge invading a man's garden/entrance, and incredible winds stripping away a few branches from nearby trees. Speaking of this man, I hope he's made it alive after Patricia's landfall. He was pretty close to it (Manzanilla Beach, if I remember well; can't access my bookmarks right now).
Quoting 38. Tazmanian:



how about you this worry about your self thank you

If we all just ignore the arctic ice it'll come back. I'm sure that will work.
Thanks for the good entry, Bob. Ah, the poor sea ice. And the polar bears. But remembering the entrainment of our warm East Atlantic air earlier, I'm not surprised.

This is odd, too:
Europe's shift to dark green forests stokes global warming-study
Source: Reuters - Thu, 4 Feb 2016 19:00 GMT
OSLO, Feb 4 (Reuters) - An expansion of Europe's forests towards dark green conifers has stoked global warming, according to a study on Thursday at odds with a widespread view that planting more trees helps human efforts to slow rising temperatures.
Forest changes have nudged Europe's summer temperatures up by 0.12 degree Celsius (0.2 Fahrenheit) since 1750, largely because many nations have planted conifers such as pines and spruce whose dark colour traps the sun's heat, the scientists said. ...
Gotz to love it...

From the Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM...
ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE A
STRONGER FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AGAIN
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HINTS AT A
BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WHILE
THE GFS IS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. BY SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL
HAVE CLEARED THE AREA AND MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN.
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE, BUT IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR A FROST OR FREEZE
EVENT. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

For West Palm Beach...

Quoting 61. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Need some model agreement. Their wording is too conservative with this afternoon's runs: the GFS and NAM give a coating to 2", the ECMWF shows 1-4". Earlier runs didn't have anything though.


From what I saw in the latest GFS run, it looks like the best bet to see any frozen precip is earlier in the day Sunday. Right now that's the highest pop where the freezing line is the closest to our region. But ultimately it'll have to depend on how this low develops and how close or far from the coast it's positioned regardless. The ECMWF seems to want to bring snow to not just us but give the DC area another decent coating.

Indian Hills Summer...lol
Good evening guys

Quoting 59. washingtonian115:

Now that that snow will coincide with the a.m rush hour commute,I have driven my car in old fashion to the 14th street bridge and abandoned it.
I hope you left it crosswise blocking at least two lanes, with the parking brake set! :-)
Quoting 8. washingtonian115:

Ooh lala


Oh don't tease me so
1.10" here in Sweetwater brings my yearly total to 9.30".

Quoting 44. BayFog:


Very similar to California, especially Central California. Very green, like now, during the rainy season, and hot and dry during the summer, except near the ocean. Southern California is more like southern Spain and Morocco.


A lot of times it depends on the plants. It looks dry/brown here even though we aren't even close to dry. The grass mostly dies here in the winter whether it rains or not, and a lot plants other than trees lose their leaves.
Quoting 50. BobHenson:



Darn! That should have been -13°C. Fixed now. It's always the final thing I add to a blog post that trips me up. Thanks for the catch, sar!
LOL. Don't feel bad, Bob. It's a rare post I don't have to edit at least once when I see something I should have seen when I first proofread it. At least you know we actually read your posts. :-)
Snowfall through 3pm tomorrow via HRRR.
I had a storm total for the event of 2.74, and we had a burst of extremely heavy rain where about an inch fell in 5-7 minutes. We've had our fill of rain for a little while. There was some decent lightning as well. It was an all around a good event.
Quoting 71. CaneFreeCR:

I hope you left it crosswise blocking at least two lanes, with the parking brake set! :-)
It wouldn't be traditional if I didn't!
72. 1Zach1
All but the GFS are on board with a snowy solution.
Quoting 58. DogtownMex:



Hey Sar - Being a southern Oaxaca resident and surfer keeps me well tuned to the Tehuantepec gales that you are referring to and I did notice the Patricia formed during such an event but I must disagree that they are common summer/fall events. The real driver of these winds in not so much the cold front that crosses the GOM but the high pressure that follows it, at least that is my understanding. High pressure in the GOM and low pressure in the ITCZ and the colder sinking air in the GOM and the rising air over the relatively warmer pacific. I do know that the gales and even storm force wind events are much more frequent from November the March.
Quite correct about the fall and winter gales. It's the high pressure that sets in after the front hits the Gulf that sets up the gales. The summertime gales are usually when the Bermuda High expands westward into the Gulf, and causes a pressure gradient due to the typically lower pressure in the Eastern Pacific. Gales are not as common in summer as during the cooler seasons, but they are also not rare. I remember watching the gap setup before Patricia formed and thinking this might be big trouble. One of the guys (and I forget exactly who now) must have done some graduate work on the gap gales. Every time he writes a TWO, he gives a gap gale about three times more space than anyone else. :-)
Quoting 45. BayFog:


They may have some influence in stirring up disturbances in the wind flow pattern, but they are also notorious for producing strong upwelling of colder water which is a big damper on tropical development. During the summer, the warm water goes deeper and gales less frequent since cold, denser air doesn't get that far south.
In the case of Patricia, we had two conditions that seem to have been at least partly caused by the el gordo El Nino. One was the much warmer water further south in the eastern Pacific and the other being the expansive high pressure reaching all the way into the Western Gulf. It was the combination of the two that set the stage for the low that would become Patricia. I don't really know, however, since I haven't been able to find a lot on the relationship between the Gulf of Tehuantepec gales and tropical low formation except that there is one. The winter storms caused by the gap winds has been well studied.
Quoting 77. Jedkins01:

I had a storm total for the event of 2.74, and we had a burst of extremely heavy rain where about an inch fell in 5-7 minutes. We've had our fill of rain for a little while. There was some decent lightning as well. It was an all around a good event.
I was surprised to end up with 3.54" as well. The system is carrying a huge volume of moisture with it. Some of the rain I ran into on my drive south to Dothan had me down to about 25 mph and seriously thinking about pulling off the road and waiting it out. As soon as I was about to do that, the rain let up for another five miles, and then the bottom fell out again. There was also more lighting to the south than I saw at home, and it continued behind the front. We ended up with four tornadoes from the storm in Alabama, but they were all north of I-20. A few instances of flash flooding were the only kind of severe weather down here. I'd bet that the East Coast is going to get more precipitation out of this than what's currently forecast.
look what Levi found:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/694958 952082202624
83. vis0

Quoting 41. washingtonian115:

How did we go from no snow to potentially 4 inches possible?
Somewhere it was lost in translation?, maybe metric to Imperial so as as oh la la (French) means Sasson® in English...luckly the next winter storm, is not named sasson.

On the seriously crazy side, anyone remember me saying watch as we get into this present wxtrend (Jan 8ish 2016 till  beginning of March 2016) if El Nino influence weakens its GoMx to SEast USofA force below 2.0 (meaning any up welling on top of its 1.8 values don't mimic a plume of energy higher than 2.1 over the SEast USofA then watch as LOW will go from heading to the ATL to making right hand turns up the East Coast...no?! gee wilikers


...Washi115 look at the sat imagery from 2 days back till today notice the "elbeebow" acute right hand turn (quasi negative tilt) of the front as it passes Florida hence this surprisingly stronger low came from not  the parent LOW's front negative tilting that parent separated from the front towards Canada , but something caused that ENSO inspired energy to turn more towards the NE USofA after it lost its umph, yet in turning due to weakening then tapped into some other energy to change a 24hr forecast from 2-3 inches in Mass, flurries to an inch or 2 on Long Island to double even triple that snowfall, to most ah 4 more inches to science a 2 to 3 times multiplier in precipitation IN 24HRS SHOULD BE A BIG DEAL.

This will be all explainable within physics, it has to be we're living in the physical dimension but its originating "triggers" came from
1) the magic8 ball
2) washi115s wish upon a star
3) *-** device
4) Its just Nature whom just want to bring storminess to all political get togethers for this 2016 Presidential election. (Blizzard out west, next MAYBE -too early to tell???- on NH Tuesday, will the word "super" enter the description of the next Godzilla storm, then what can we expect for the political super Tuesday, spring storms?... i hope not either way as  Taz may call all this, "super boooring¡¡¡¡¡¡"



i rest my case oooooooooooowwwwww, right on my toe!
Quoting 30. PlazaRed:


I can assure you that its so green in the winter its hard to look at.
I had 2 clients from Vancouver over there last week to buy a large amount of our olive oil and they took over a 1000 photos of the amount of green there is here.
Added to this the desert area is very small, where they made a lot of the spaghetti westerns about 40 years ago.
What throws people is that when most people come here on holiday it summer and then its very dry and a bit harsh from the end of May until Septembers end.
Meanwhile we are always thinking about how this climate change and ice melt is going to affect us, as there is no real safe haven even though from here the Arctic is so far away.
Here is a photo from my WU uploads of about this time of year here.


Very similar to the scenery in northern California in winter except the trees would be mostly oaks. The contrast between winter, when we looked like Ireland, to summer, when we looked more like the Mojave Desert, always seemed to surprise tourists. Of course, once you get down to Almeria, it really does look like the American desert. Many people are still surprised when they learn the Clint Eastwood spaghetti westerns were all filmed there. Being a train buff, the funniest part of those films was trying to dress up 0-4-0 Spanish steam engines, complete with buffers and single wheel bogies, to look like American 2-6-0 steamers of the post-Civil War period. It didn't work. :-)
Quoting 82. redux:

look what Levi found:

Apparently, the link won't work. Did you mean that?

Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 3 hil y a 3 heures
Just waiting for that MJO phase 7-8-1 progression again, for many reasons.


(.86 win1gamegiantsplease, I tried that hoping it would work, but... didn't)
Quoting 82. redux:

look what Levi found:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/694958 952082202624


Might wanna fix the space in between those numbers
Quoting 85. 999Ai2016:



he found a model which had the Fujiwhara effecting 2 storms in the Indian Ocean.

oh well. technology wins again.
Quoting 82. redux:

look what Levi found:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/694958 952082202624
The working link to Levi's Twitter. Maybe an actual Fujiwhara in the South Indian Ocean?
8-) That's great stuff ; I hope it's just computer madness!
Quoting 85. 999Ai2016:



Worked fine for me, but sar has relinked it
Quoting 19. ElConando:

Thank you Bob!

Also, how reliable is the GEM global model with Temperature prediction? Because it feels the GFS has a better grasp on the cold snap that'll hit Florida this weekend into next week.
All the models are showing much colder air down our way starting Monday night. They vary in their depiction of how moisture will be available and the supposed temperatures, but models are rarely right when it comes down to things like if it will be just above or just below freezing. That's going to be determined by things like exactly how fast the front moves, when clouds clear, what the wind speed will be, how much snow there is to our north...and about 50 other things the models are absolutely no good at predicting. Suffice to say it's going to much colder next week at this time than it is now. The details will become more clear about 24 hours before the colder weather arrives.
Quoting 90. win1gamegiantsplease:



Worked fine for me, but sar has relinked it
The problem is with the space between the 8 and 9 in the "694958 952082202624" sequence at the end of the link. The extremely deluxe software running this site will always, without fail, add a space somewhere in a link more than about 20 characters long. That's bad enough, but it seems to do so randomly, and sometimes adds multiple space. There is web software that actually has the ability to recognize a link and make it clickable. With IBM now in charge of this dog and pony show, maybe it will happen here someday.
Quoting 84. sar2401:

Very similar to the scenery in northern California in winter except the trees would be mostly oaks. The contrast between winter, when we looked like Ireland, to summer, when we looked more like the Mojave Desert, always seemed to surprise tourists. Of course, once you get down to Almeria, it really does look like the American desert. Many people are still surprised when they learn the Clint Eastwood spaghetti westerns were all filmed there. Being a train buff, the funniest part of those films was trying to dress up 0-4-0 Spanish steam engines, complete with buffers and single wheel bogies, to look like American 2-6-0 steamers of the post-Civil War period. It didn't work. :-)

Aha. A fellow train geek. Who would have guessed? Yep, I noticed the same whenever I watched those movies...the movies where half the time was a close shot on the eyes, with a funky dramatic crescendo of faux "western" music.
Quoting 69. PedleyCA:


Indian Hills Summer...lol


Seven straight days of sunshine, so depressing lol. Barometric pressure expected to be on the rise in the Pacific for the near future.

In Steve Gregory's blog he talked about how the MJO coming into the CPAC could either hamper ENSO's effects (mal para ti) or amplify them (buen para ti). I didn't know a stronger MJO signal could be disruptive to it until I asked.

Quoting 92. sar2401:

The problem is with the space between the 8 and 9 in the "694958 952082202624" sequence at the end of the link. The extremely deluxe software running this site will always, without fail, add a space somewhere in a link more than about 20 characters long. That's bad enough, but it seems to do so randomly, and sometimes adds multiple space. There is web software that actually has the ability to recognize a link and make it clickable. With IBM now in charge of this dog and pony show, maybe it will happen here someday.


That's what I told redux. I think the site could be a problem. I've tried to post images here only to see my post blank. Maybe it is because the link is too long, never made that connection (no pun intended).
The NWS thinks the intensity of the precipitation will be able to cool pavement areas.I already put in for a telework option tomorrow.D.C drivers are horrible.
Started to pick up again

I have been watching the Anaktuvuk River fire for nearly 9 years. First when it was underway in September , of 2007. And later as the studies came in.

So tonight, I came across some new information , imbedded in the post was this :

Wolverine Lake Thermokarst Timelapse

This what melting permafrost looks like over time, given that this was frozen for ten's of thousands of years, it's like watching a NASCAR race.


Quoting 77. Jedkins01:

I had a storm total for the event of 2.74, and we had a burst of extremely heavy rain where about an inch fell in 5-7 minutes. We've had our fill of rain for a little while. There was some decent lightning as well. It was an all around a good event.
Quoting 81. sar2401:

I was surprised to end up with 3.54" as well. The system is carrying a huge volume of moisture with it. Some of the rain I ran into on my drive south to Dothan had me down to about 25 mph and seriously thinking about pulling off the road and waiting it out. As soon as I was about to do that, the rain let up for another five miles, and then the bottom fell out again. There was also more lighting to the south than I saw at home, and it continued behind the front. We ended up with four tornadoes from the storm in Alabama, but they were all north of I-20. A few instances of flash flooding were the only kind of severe weather down here. I'd bet that the East Coast is going to get more precipitation out of this than what's currently forecast.


Just NE of Chiefland, had about 3.5 - 4 inches in the horse buckets when I went out to feed this eve. The rain started about 8 this morn & had a nice steady rain all day until right before sunset.
Quoting 62. washingtonian115:

If the HRRR continues trending even further west like it has done now we could be looking at 4-5 inches.I didn't expect nothing like this to happen 12 hours ago.


We still need to get some cold air in here. Still low 40s at 10PM.


%uFFFD Scientific Visualization Studio/Goddard Space Flight Center 2015 was the warmest year since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to a new analysis by NASA%u2019s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The record-breaking year

Link
Gotta wonder if this unusual arctic warmth is having an effect on the teleconnections that normally happen with El Nino. February is usually the wettest month in SoCal, but we've got a big fat zero precip in the first 4 days, and the GFS 10-day doesn't inspire confidence either.

Quoting 64. 999Ai2016:



On the visible image in the lower left corner you can also see the extra sediments carried out to the ocean because of the rainfall.

Yes, fortunately the radius of severe damage to the vegetation was limited to a relatively small area for a cat.5-and-plus hurricane, but the strength of the wind was impressive (I was watching a webcam close to the beach that finally went down after streaming online the beginning of the storm surge invading a man's garden/entrance, and incredible winds stripping away a few branches from nearby trees. Speaking of this man, I hope he's made it alive after Patricia's landfall. He was pretty close to it (Manzanilla Beach, if I remember well; can't access my bookmarks right now).


I just want to say while Patricia's maximum winds were upped to 215mph it was actually downgraded to a cat 4 at landfall, a strong one with 150mph winds, but not unprecidented
1.43" so far. Didn't expect this much rain here at my location but I'll take it. Daytona Beach is near 2.6" for the day. Heaviest rains fell along and north of I-4 today.

CFSv2 going gang busters for El-Nino continuing thru the end of the year infact gets strong again come late Fall potentially.

GFS 00z through 24hrs showing 2-3 inches in the DC metro area. With the warm group temps actual accumulations will probably be a bit lower but closer to those numbers on grassy and wooden surfaces.

Quoting 105. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 going gang busters for El-Nino continuing thru the end of the year infact gets strong again come late Fall potentially.




YAWN tone it down please sir and read this


ENSO Alert System Status: El Nio Advisory
El Nio conditions are present.*
Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across
most of the Pacific Ocean.

A strong El Nio is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to
transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer 2016.*


we could have neutral or weak too mod La Nia by summer not EL Nino that now weaking
Quoting 101. Grothar:



© Scientific Visualization Studio/Goddard Space Flight Center 2015 was the warmest year since modern record keeping began in 1880, according to a new analysis by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The record-breaking year…


That blue spot is water coming off Greenland.
Quoting 102. TimSoCal:

Gotta wonder if this unusual arctic warmth is having an effect on the teleconnections that normally happen with El Nino. February is usually the wettest month in SoCal, but we've got a big fat zero precip in the first 4 days, and the GFS 10-day doesn't inspire confidence either.





it really feels like the EL nino pattern we been in has swiched too a La Nia or Modoki EL Nino we are not in that classic strong EL Nino any more i can tell you that
Quoting 106. Grothar:








weak too mod La Niña on the way
Those blues are fresh water spots coming off Greenland.

Note the outlets, the new blob to the west is worrisome,
That new blob reallys sucks.
Time to let the raindrops soothe me to sleep. The '85 Bears 30 for 30 was fantastic by the way, too bad they omitted the 44-0 whipping of the Cowboys, that's never not funny.

Quoting 104. StormTrackerScott:

1.43" so far. Didn't expect this much rain here at my location but I'll take it. Daytona Beach is near 2.6" for the day. Heaviest rains fell along and north of I-4 today.




It started raining in ILM 24 hours ago, probably won't stop for another few hours.
I love green, I love the rain

The GFS is starting to "see" the idea here....I'm liking the trend
weathermanwannabe
7:13 PM GMT on February 04, 2016

1:28 PM EST on February 04, 2016
Don't know of specific links (or whether you are limited to the US or the Word) but I would think that some of the best experts on sea walls are the Dutch given the below sea level situation for many parts of the Netherlands; I was in Antwerp (coastal town in Belgium) in the late-90's and the walls surrounding the port area near our hotel out in the bay were very impressive looking. I have also seen documentaries on the seawall system in that region on television. The site may-may not be in English but I would think that some of the Dutch port authority or governmental sites have information on their coastal barriers and they probably mention sea level rise (when the original purpose of the walls was to protect the lowlands from flooding and harbors from battering waves during rough North Sea storms)..................Just a thought."

Well, I'm in the UK and put any place in it for reference,, so it's all good! The uni library resources has a few things on the barriers over there.

It looks like I had bad timing posting it not long before a new blog entry, so in case I can get any orther takers...the more the merrier, here's my post from the last blog for any one else inclined :) WUmail me any really great links, as i won't be around much all weekend!

Hi everyone...I have a favour to ask. I know a good deal of you might have information and weblinks or particular books they know of in relation to this, so thought I would ask if anyone could forward me what they think has the best information. My largest project for my photography degree at the moment, is about seawalls. Now, I think my instructor wants history behind some in particular ones, but he knows of my environmental thoughts as well, and makes complete sense to include it into the project. So, am looking for the best, current places of info regarding sea level rises from global warming effects and storm surges in association with coastal protections, particularly concerning seawalls.

If anyone has anything in their links etc, I'd be very grateful and if you do, please WUmail me, as between my 3 different modules and my job, I've not had much time to read the blog comments, aside from skimming over them while having morning coffee, so would likely miss many. The extra plus in it, is all my classmates are stereotypical 18-21 year olds, who seem to have no idea or thought about environmental issues...or any issues much at all apart from fashion, sports, celebrities etc...so, am hoping it might stir some thought in at least one of them. Would definitely make it worth the extra work I'm bringing upon myself with doing this project, as opposed to something much more trivial.

Thanks much for even reading and even more so if you have the notion to send me any links! Cheers, Beverly
Greenland without ice -

Link

Now go look at Gothars post at 101. The only cold spots in the entire northern hemisphere is just where Greenland's big southern drains are.
Quoting 115. washingtonian115:

The GFS is starting to "see" the idea here....I'm liking the trend



UKMET 00z:

I'm starting to see ice pellets in Herndon now.
Quoting 119. Tornado6042008X:

I'm starting to see ice pellets in Herndon now.


I have sleet in Silver Spring
Radar is looking good and strong 700mb frontogenesis is located meridionally over central VA. Good sign for a healthy western extent of the precip bands:

Yes please!

My 9 new predictions have been recorded. Total of 11 so far this year.
Y'all got about 3 more months to join
Chart updated once montly.

Im stunned by the unpredictable destructive power of nature with Hurricane Patricia reaching 215 mph may be the only storm I may get to experience, and even the pressure could possibly have been lower than Tip's 870mb but kept at 872 (just right there!).
Truly a storm for the ages

Wow am I honored to have been initiated into WU's prestigious "email confirmation limbo" club. For those of you who have not yet experienced this mysterious rite of passage, I can not tell you how many times you will have to resubmit your info. Nor do I know weather or not the magic words, "please and thank you" in a personal email did the trick. I do know that im glad to be back.

Jedkins, I wasnt avoiding you inquiry, my little clearing in the mist is about 15m due E of Bellingham bay, 15m due W of Mt. Baker, and 17m south of the Canadian border. I have posted lots of pictures of the area on wonderphotos, check em out.

I was all excited to join in on the conversation about the never ending rain here in the NW the other day when a surpisingly bright light from outside cought my attention. I wasnt really sure what it was so I ran out to look…bad decision, my squinting eyes started to water and I was sneezing uncontrollably. I got back inside as quick as I could. In retrospect im pretty sure it was the sun, you all talk about it like it is soooo great, but it scared the carp out of me. :-)
125. vis0
oops wrong comment and wrong blog. (copy n paste was stuck from another countrys wxblog)
126. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA
AOI:: EASTERN USofA
NOTE:: Weather activity looks like Nature is playing with photoshop aGW.
(coast looks like Dec weather while Central Atlantic towards Caribbean looks like May weather)
View (https://youtu.be/wFXqIa5Ymgo) on YouTube here its 600x476 - org dimen 878x1522
127. vis0
my 2cents as to the topic of this blogbyte at my zilly pg just gave me an ouchie linking later
looks like snow for the I-95 corridor today............................................. ..
With the amount of rain and wind that whipped through here, I would not be surprised if this storm is a bit of an overachiever.

Quoting 129. LargoFl:

looks like snow for the I-95 corridor today............................................. ..
Quoting 130. HaoleboySurfEC:

With the amount of rain and wind that whipped through here, I would not be surprised if this storm is a bit of an overachiever.


yes was real windy here by me also
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
341 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...COASTAL LOW BRINGING SNOW TO REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON...

NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ068>075-176-178-051700-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-160205T1700Z/
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-PUTNAM-
ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
341 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND
NEW YORK CITY.

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* TIMING...RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY DAYBREAK. SNOW
WILL CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$
There's no mention of the Record level of Sea Ice and the northward migration and increased thickness of the ice sheet in Antartica.
Quoting 133. missionRN14:

There's no mention of the Record level of Sea Ice and the northward migration and increased thickness of the ice sheet in Antartica.

Apparently, it's not doing too good this year : NSIDC Sea Ice Index
True, it's not as bad as the Arctic, but there are also major regional difference within Antarctic as to the positive/negative anomalies, and the mere size of the southern continent prevents the changes from happening as fast as in the Arctic I think.
And the sea ice isn't like the land-based ice caps in Antarctic, which aren't growing much at present and in fact already contribute to the global sea level rise (see for example Eric Rignot, AGU Fall Meeting 2015, Youtube video)
Not to mention the big problem with West Antarctica's land-based ice sheets.
A little nippy down here in the Heart of Dixie this morning with a temperature of 29. It's colder here than DC or NYC, but at least it's three degrees colder in Cleveland, so I can feel self righteous about that. As usual, the models have flip flopped on the cold wave for the SE next week. Now they are saying just typical winter cold instead of "you'll die if you go outside" cold. It also appears it will be too warm Monday night and Tuesday for any chance of wintry precipitation as well. Of course, it's likely the models will flip flop again before then, so we'll see some other change in scenario for the worse or better. After the downpour Wednesday, an extended period of fry weather, even if it's a little chilly, would be a good thing.
Quoting 134. 999Ai2016:


Apparently, it's not doing too good this year : NSIDC Sea Ice Index
True, it's not as bad as the Arctic, but there are also major regional difference within Antarctic as to the positive/negative anomalies, and the mere size of the southern continent prevents the changes from happening as fast as in the Arctic I think.
And the sea ice isn't like the land-based ice caps in Antarctic, which aren't growing much at present and in fact already contribute to the global sea level rise (see for example Eric Rignot, AGU Fall Meeting 2015, Youtube video)
Not to mention the big problem with West Antarctica's land-based ice sheets.
Some of the increase in seas ice extent is due to more ice getting from the continent to the ocean because of the increased melting of the ice caps and glaciers. As you say, Antarctica is so massive, and the ice cap is so thick compared to the Arctic, even in good years, that it will take much longer to see the land ice shrink significantly. However, just because the mass is so huge, even a tiny percentage of shrinkage can add a tremendous amount of floating ice to the surrounding oceans.
Quoting 124. plantmoretrees:

Wow am I honored to have been initiated into WU's prestigious "email confirmation limbo" club. For those of you who have not yet experienced this mysterious rite of passage, I can not tell you how many times you will have to resubmit your info. Nor do I know weather or not the magic words, "please and thank you" in a personal email did the trick. I do know that im glad to be back.

Jedkins, I wasnt avoiding you inquiry, my little clearing in the mist is about 15m due E of Bellingham bay, 15m due W of Mt. Baker, and 17m south of the Canadian border. I have posted lots of pictures of the area on wonderphotos, check em out.

I was all excited to join in on the conversation about the never ending rain here in the NW the other day when a surpisingly bright light from outside cought my attention. I wasnt really sure what it was so I ran out to look…bad decision, my squinting eyes started to water and I was sneezing uncontrollably. I got back inside as quick as I could. In retrospect im pretty sure it was the sun, you all talk about it like it is soooo great, but it scared the carp out of me. :-)
I think we've all had the email confirmation happen at least once. It seems like it's more likely to happen when the so-called programmers here are doing upgrades to the site. Given the takeover by IBM, there may be more problems like this in the future. In WU's defence, however, it does seem an email to customer service generally fixes a problem that shouldn't have occured in the first place.

Your area can be a tough place to live in during the late fall and winter. We used to get extended periods of cloudiness and rain in northern California during the winter, and there were a few times I was ready to hop a plane to anywhere there was sun. OTOH, I felt a sense of gratitude when the sun finally came out like I've never felt anywhere else, so maybe it's worth it, in a perverted sort of way. :-)
Quoting 124. plantmoretrees:

Wow am I honored to have been initiated into WU's prestigious "email confirmation limbo" club. For those of you who have not yet experienced this mysterious rite of passage, I can not tell you how many times you will have to resubmit your info. Nor do I know weather or not the magic words, "please and thank you" in a personal email did the trick. I do know that im glad to be back.

Jedkins, I wasnt avoiding you inquiry, my little clearing in the mist is about 15m due E of Bellingham bay, 15m due W of Mt. Baker, and 17m south of the Canadian border. I have posted lots of pictures of the area on wonderphotos, check em out.

I was all excited to join in on the conversation about the never ending rain here in the NW the other day when a surpisingly bright light from outside cought my attention. I wasnt really sure what it was so I ran out to look…bad decision, my squinting eyes started to water and I was sneezing uncontrollably. I got back inside as quick as I could. In retrospect im pretty sure it was the sun, you all talk about it like it is soooo great, but it scared the carp out of me. :-)


Best thing to do when this happens is just wait. Something is wrong with the server that has your information and there isn't much else you can do other than make a new ID with a different name. But the hassle to do that is usually more than the hassle of waiting a day or so for the server issue to be fixed.
Quoting 130. HaoleboySurfEC:

With the amount of rain and wind that whipped through here, I would not be surprised if this storm is a bit of an overachiever.


It looks like most of DC escaped any accumulating snow on the streets, with most of the snow further east into Delaware and Maryland. Judging by the traffic cams, NYC has had a more typical snowstorm than what they had last week, and there are lots of cars on the roads. The temperature is hovering between 34 and 35 over most of the NYC and inland areas. That should be warm enough to prevent much, if any, accumulation on paved surfaces. Further east in Long Island and Connecticut, the temperature is a couple of degrees cooler, and more snow has been accumulating there. Boston looks like to will get the brunt of this one with snow accumulations of eight inches to a foot. This is kind of an unusual winter storm for the East Coast, with more snow and colder temperatures near the coast and less inland.
Good morning. I picked up 0.79” from yesterday’s frontal passage, which brings me to 6.38” for the year. I wouldn’t have received nearly that much, but a 10 minute stretch of heavy rain came through around 7:00 PM. The official reporting station 6 miles from me recorded 1.05”. Looks like we’re heading into a dry 7 days in the Tampa Bay area.
Quoting 123. MaxWeather:

My 9 new predictions have been recorded. Total of 11 so far this year.
Y'all got about 3 more months to join
Chart updated once montly.

Im stunned by the unpredictable destructive power of nature with Hurricane Patricia reaching 215 mph may be the only storm I may get to experience, and even the pressure could possibly have been lower than Tip's 870mb but kept at 872 (just right there!).
Truly a storm for the ages




I'd have to find concrete proof (and I've had this talk here before), but I think 872 mb with 215 mph compares well with Tip at 870 and 190-95 mph. Usually larger storms with really low pressures don't have as fast winds as a smaller storm with a slightly higher pressure (compare Katrina and Andrew, both around 920 mb). There are certainly other factors than just size but I think the gist of it is the storm conserving angular momentum.
Quoting 130. HaoleboySurfEC:

With the amount of rain and wind that whipped through here, I would not be surprised if this storm is a bit of an overachiever.




Give or take a few short breaks it probably rained 28-30 hours straight.
Quoting 142. tampabaymatt:

Good morning. I picked up 0.79” from yesterday’s frontal passage, which brings me to 6.38” for the year. I wouldn’t have received nearly that much, but a 10 minute stretch of heavy rain came through around 7:00 PM. The official reporting station 6 miles from me recorded 1.05”. Looks like we’re heading into a dry 7 days in the Tampa Bay area.


Totals near 1.5" all across Western Seminole County as the majority of PWS across my area recorded 1.43" @ my location to 1.70" over in Lake Mary to 2.57" over in Daytona Beach. We actually had some thunderstorms that developed and trained just out ahead of the main rain band from 6pm to 8pm.
Quoting 129. LargoFl:

looks like snow for the I-95 corridor today............................................. ..


Looks like mostly an issue north of Philadelphia up into lower New England. Nothing but wet roads and temperatures well above freezing in the Washington D.C. area.
Very impressive February update on the CFSv2 which does show a moderate/strong El-Nino during the October/November timeframe. Now again this is the CFSv2 so in order to believe what the CFSv2 is showing we would need to get some consistency from other models. I am very interested to see what the Euro is showing on its February update. What raises eyebrows across some in the met field are these continued strong WWB during a time when El-Nino should really be falling off



WWB
Quoting 123. MaxWeather:

My 9 new predictions have been recorded. Total of 11 so far this year.
Y'all got about 3 more months to join
Chart updated once montly.

Im stunned by the unpredictable destructive power of nature with Hurricane Patricia reaching 215 mph may be the only storm I may get to experience, and even the pressure could possibly have been lower than Tip's 870mb but kept at 872 (just right there!).
Truly a storm for the ages


Not only did we get see a record breaking Northern Hemisphere storm, it also occured with very few lives lost and a small amount of property damage relative to how powerful the storm was. A larger storm, or one making landfall fifty miles further north or south would have been a real disaster, not only in lives, but damage to the Mexican economy. Fifty miles further south would have wrecked Manzanillo, Mexico's most important Pacific port, and fifty miles further north would have spelled destruction for the resort areas around Puerto Vallarta. There is no other place between those two cities that Patricia could have caused less damage than it did except by making landfall right where it did. Mexico was blessed by a real stroke of luck with this storm.
Snowing here in Virginia Beach right now. it won't accumulate but roads are messy. I think it has rained for at least 24 hours straight at this point.
house.is.shaken.e.cen.florida
Quoting 133. missionRN14:

There's no mention of the Record level of Sea Ice and the northward migration and increased thickness of the ice sheet in Antartica.
Doesn't fit the agenda.
Quoting 150. islander101010:

house.is.shaken.e.cen.florida

Nice ULA Atlas V launch. Part of the GPS series.
Quoting 110. Tazmanian:




it really feels like the EL nino pattern we been in has swiched too a La Ni�a or Modoki EL Nino we are not in that classic strong EL Nino any more i can tell you that
Nonsense. Please see StormtrackerScotts #147 post.
Quoting 151. NativeSun:

Doesn't fit the agenda.
AFLAC!!
Quoting 133. missionRN14:

There's no mention of the Record level of Sea Ice and the northward migration and increased thickness of the ice sheet in Antartica.
So you're surprised that there's no mention of SH sea ice in an article titled, "Absurd January Warmth in Arctic Brings Record-Low Sea Ice Extent".

Hmmm. Do you also question why the weather person on your local evening news doesn't talk about the temperatures in Ulan Bator or Buenos Aires or Christchurch when she's reading your town's forecast?

Of course, you saw the word "Arctic" in the title, but you thought you might go ahead anyway and try to score a few points by dully repeating one of the most oft-debunked denialist claims: that increasing Antarctic sea ice somehow "offsets" shrinking Arctic sea ice, thereby invalidating climate change theory. or something. The many differences between the North and South Poles have been explained here far too many times to miss, and it's tedious to explain again for the hundredth time, especially when the intended audience member isn't listening. So to save time, a few links:

Arctic vs. Antarctic

Why is southern sea ice increasing?

I do hope you'll avail yourself of the information at those pages. be warned, though: while they're simple to understand, they do presuppose a modicum of scientific understanding. If you encounter any mental roadblocks, feel free to see clarification here in these friendly pages...
Quoting 153. Llamaluvr:

Nonsense. Please see StormtrackerScotts #147 post.


NOAA's diagnostic discussion talks about some model guidance leaning towards ENSO-neutral, I think just like anything else we'll have to wait, see how spring unfolds.

[Link]
As the rain moves out and the sun shows itself, here come the brisk winds. Expected to increase as the low intensifies to our north.

@ Neapolitan The patronizing, makes me uneasy and makes me chuckle all at once
Quoting 151. NativeSun:

Doesn't fit the agenda.

You mean doesn't fit reality.. Antarctic sea ice is down. Negative anomaly even. There is no record ice going on there.
159. vis0
Big crane flips completely upside down in the financial district in NYC.
 sar2401 other veterans of life, how the heck does a crane that is near (not on) the ground do a 180degree flip.

 Lots of security cams in this area so we'll see how it flipped/
.
 Windy? not that windy here but i'm 4-5 miles away but to flip tons!!!!!!! on its base wind don't think so . i wonder if it was on a stable mounting/as wooden planks. sadly early reports are 1 dead 2 injured.
"Absurd" seems an odd choice of wording to describe the arctic temperatures.

adjective
1. utterly or obviously senseless, illogical, or untrue; contrary to all reason or common sense; laughably foolish or false:
an absurd explanation.

noun
2. the quality or condition of existing in a meaningless and irrational world.

Anomalous perhaps?
Quoting 161. LouisPasteur:

"Absurd" seems an odd choice of wording to describe the arctic temperatures.

adjective
1. utterly or obviously senseless, illogical, or untrue; contrary to all reason or common sense; laughably foolish or false:
an absurd explanation.

noun
2. the quality or condition of existing in a meaningless and irrational world.

Anomalous perhaps?


Option 2 sounds pretty accurate. We have people actively denying the world is warming, what an irrational proposition. Also, I do always love a solid semantics argument over word choice by the blog authors. There's always so many nits to pick.
Good morning and greetings from South Dakota! I've been reading this blog for close to a year now and finally decided to take the plunge and create an account after the blizzard earlier this week. Not sure I'll be able to contribute to the discussions much as I have no formal training or education in anything weather related, just a fan and I enjoy learning. Huge kudos to those of you (and Dr. Masters and Bob Henson obviously) that have the knowledge and post all those awesome models and data graphs. I'm actually starting to recognize and understand some of them lol.
Admin Notice:
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged ignored.

Why is the post that comes after 159 still here? Favoritism?

Cold and windy here in NE Fla, we went from 80's a coupla days ago to 30's overnite. Took 2.80" of rain to bring it!
Quoting 162. Naga5000:



Option 2 sounds pretty accurate. We have people actively denying the world is warming, what an irrational proposition. Also, I do always love a solid semantics argument over word choice by the blog authors. There's always so many nits to pick.


JUST PASSING THE TIME.........

Quoting 133. missionRN14:

There's no mention of the Record level of Sea Ice and the northward migration and increased thickness of the ice sheet in Antartica.


Because it isn't happening. There is currently a negative anomaly for Antarctic extent.

Of course, that has nothing to do with the Arctic ice, which is what the post was about. Furthermore, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice have absolutely nothing to do with each other. One does not "balance out" the other. They are driven by different dynamics, have different impacts, etc. About the only thing they have in common is that they're both ice.

For example, a key element of sea ice extent in the Antarctic is ocean salinity. As I'm sure you're aware, saltier water requires colder temperatures to freeze. Conversely, fresher water freezes at warmer temperatures. This leads to the counter intuitive result that a warmer Antarctic means MORE sea ice, not less (more ice melt leads to fresher water which leads to greater ice extent). Yet deniers constantly trumpet the increasing Antarctic ice as "proof" that warming isn't happening. This leads to scientists face-palming and pointing to the research that predicted increasing Antarctic sea ice as the globe warms.

On the other hand, Arctic sea ice extent and thickness is due almost entirely to temperature. Not just air temperatures but ocean temperatures. As those warm, as we've seen over the past century+, extent and volume decrease. There is no massive pump of freshwater (currently) feeding into the Arctic basin like the Antarctic. Hence why extent in the Arctic is more than 2 standard deviations away from the average at the moment, and has been in that general range for quite some time.
Quoting 164. aquak9:

Admin Notice:
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged ignored.

Why is the post that comes after 159 still here? Favoritism?

Cold and windy here in NE Fla, we went from 80's a coupla days ago to 30's overnite. Took 2.80" of rain to bring it!


calling some one a idiot is not a personal attack but the post has been re moved
Quoting 167. Llamaluvr:

I think that's silly. StormtrackerScott is the number one resource for all things El Nino. He is tuned in and is the go to source for many of us.



you guys are the ones that being silly for following his post for some in that wont happen for other 6 moths come on guys some of you need too get a real life on here scott needs too tone it down he been posting the same stuff every day on here scott dos not no how too check the CVF2 every 2 weeks he this post it every update and we get too here about it now if he learn too check it every 2 weeks and then post it then it would not be that bad Scott EL Nino posting is getting out of control and i find it odd that the mods on here are allowing the same info too be posted on here
Name-calling is a personal attack, Taz.

I used to come to your defense when people called you names. It is cruel, and mean. You should know how it feels. Does it feel good when people call you an idiot? It's happened a lot.

But I will not stick up for you any more, Taz.

Quoting 170. aquak9:

Name-calling is a personal attack, Taz.

I used to come to your defense when people called you names. It is cruel, and mean. You should know how it feels. Does it feel good when people call you an idiot? It's happened a lot.

But I will not stick up for you any more, Taz.





some of you over re act a lot on here but the i re moved the post
172. JRRP
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 42 minHace 42 minutos Walnut Creek, CA Ver traducción
Despite #ElNino conditions, Caribbean vertical wind shear below-average in January.
Quoting 159. vis0:

Big crane flips completely upside down in the financial district in NYC.
 sar2401 other veterans of life, how the heck does a crane that is near (not on) the ground do a 180degree flip.

 Lots of security cams in this area so we'll see how it flipped/
.
 Windy? not that windy here but i'm 4-5 miles away but to flip tons!!!!!!! on its base wind don't think so . i wonder if it was on a stable mounting/as wooden planks. sadly early reports are 1 dead 2 injured.

I'm only seeing the same pictures that you are so I don't have anything authoritative to add. It looks like a heavy lift crane boom collapsed rather than flipped over. By appearances, it was at least 200 feet long and extremely stout. It's the weight of the boom that caused the injuries and property damage. These kinds of cranes are used safely in building reconstruction projects in the midst of crowded streets and not much area to plant the crane. It could have been a mechanical or material failure in the boom itself or miscalculation of lifting weight versus boom height and swing. We won't know the cause for a couple of days but, unfortunately, NYC is no stranger to fatal crane accidents.
Quoting 171. Tazmanian:




some of you over re act a lot on here but the i re moved the post

Thank you Taz. I want everyone to treat each other respectfully.

No one should be able to get away with name-calling.
Quoting 164. aquak9:

Admin Notice:
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged ignored.

Why is the post that comes after 159 still here? Favoritism?

Cold and windy here in NE Fla, we went from 80's a coupla days ago to 30's overnite. Took 2.80" of rain to bring it!


Probably. I think when you reach 100,000 comments, the rules cease to apply to you anymore. Or, maybe that is just my silly attempt to explain the subjective moderating on this blog. Why calling someone an idiot is allowed is beyond my comprehension.
Quoting 135. sar2401:

A little nippy down here in the Heart of Dixie this morning with a temperature of 29. It's colder here than DC or NYC, but at least it's three degrees colder in Cleveland, so I can feel self righteous about that. As usual, the models have flip flopped on the cold wave for the SE next week. Now they are saying just typical winter cold instead of "you'll die if you go outside" cold. It also appears it will be too warm Monday night and Tuesday for any chance of wintry precipitation as well. Of course, it's likely the models will flip flop again before then, so we'll see some other change in scenario for the worse or better. After the downpour Wednesday, an extended period of fry weather, even if it's a little chilly, would be a good thing.

The models have flip flopped?!?!? Please, please, say it ain't so. Oh, the horror, the humanity
Quoting 163. LuckySD:

Good morning and greetings from South Dakota! I've been reading this blog for close to a year now and finally decided to take the plunge and create an account after the blizzard earlier this week. Not sure I'll be able to contribute to the discussions much as I have no formal training or education in anything weather related, just a fan and I enjoy learning. Huge kudos to those of you (and Dr. Masters and Bob Henson obviously) that have the knowledge and post all those awesome models and data graphs. I'm actually starting to recognize and understand some of them lol.
Welcome aboard. Very few of us have any formal met training, although we do have some very talented met school students contributing. Most of us are just geeks that have liked weather most of our lives. You can learn a lot by looking at the models and then checking the forecaster discussions at your local NWS site. They will usually explain a lot of what you're seeing from the models. The same is true for the discussions at the NHC during tropical storm season. If you haven't already done so, take some time to learn and understand surface maps, since they show reality compared to what a model thought would happen. You can become a pretty good amatuer forecaster over time if you take the time to learn some of the background processes.
Quoting 163. LuckySD:

Good morning and greetings from South Dakota! I've been reading this blog for close to a year now and finally decided to take the plunge and create an account after the blizzard earlier this week. Not sure I'll be able to contribute to the discussions much as I have no formal training or education in anything weather related, just a fan and I enjoy learning. Huge kudos to those of you (and Dr. Masters and Bob Henson obviously) that have the knowledge and post all those awesome models and data graphs. I'm actually starting to recognize and understand some of them lol.


Where in South Dakota? I am currently living in Sioux Falls, (on vacation Texas for a few more days.)

Quoting 176. ACSeattle:


The models have flip flopped?!?!? Please, please, say it ain't so. Oh, the horror, the humanity
Yes, it's a sad day in model land as, once again, hopes have been shattered. As compensation, there's always a new model run just around the corner that may show what you hope will happen. :-)
Quoting 174. aquak9:


Thank you Taz. I want everyone to treat each other respectfully.

No one should be able to get away with name-calling.
Just for me, having some people on ignore causes a lot fewer blood pressure increases than trying to get them to behave right.
Models are trending closer to the coast for the powerful ocean storm Sunday into Monday. New NAM now shows it bringing snow to Long Island.
- Asia/Japan : Volcano Erupts less than 50 km from Sendai Nuclear Power Plant.
- Drought in Africa/Zimbabwe : President Robert Mugabe has declared a state of disaster following the El Nino-induced drought. (...) "The seasonal outlook indicated from the outset that the 2015-2016 rainfall season for Zimbabwe was likely to experience normal to below normal rainfall throughout the country. This weather condition has been brought about by the El Nino phenomenon. This phenomenon is highly associated with droughts and prolonged dry spells in most Sub-Saharan countries."
Quoting 173. sar2401:

I'm only seeing the same pictures that you are so I don't have anything authoritative to add. It looks like a heavy lift crane boom collapsed rather than flipped over. By appearances, it was at least 200 feet long and extremely stout. It's the weight of the boom that caused the injuries and property damage. These kinds of cranes are used safely in building reconstruction projects in the midst of crowded streets and not much area to plant the crane. It could have been a mechanical or material failure in the boom itself or miscalculation of lifting weight versus boom height and swing. We won't know the cause for a couple of days but, unfortunately, NYC is no stranger to fatal crane accidents.



It is a track or crawler crane. it is upside down, looks like it blew over from the wind while they were trying to lower it. I would have to say the jib caught the wind pushing it over backward

FWIW it is not a very big crane by the looks of it. In terms of crawler cranes
Quoting 157. win1gamegiantsplease:

As the rain moves out and the sun shows itself, here come the brisk winds. Expected to increase as the low intensifies to our north.
The cold air advection has really set up today. It's only up to 43. With average 10 mph winds and 15 mph gusts, it feels a lot worse when I step outside though. This is the beginning of a week of, if not record cold, really cold for us. Probably won't see a high of 60 or above next six days, and the high Tuesday is supposed to be 43. It doesn't look horribly cold at night, only getting down into the mid-20's, but still pretty darned cold for the land of juleps and magnolias.
Quoting 181. sar2401:

Just for me, having some people on ignore causes a lot fewer blood pressure increases than trying to get them to behave right.


the ignore is point less right now has long has we have the : Quote even if you have me on ignore if some one else : Quote my post if they had me on ignore they will still be able too see my posts thats why i keep says that the they need too re moved the ignore list or the Quote has we can not have both on here
Quoting 175. tampabaymatt:


Probably. I think when you reach 100,000 comments, the rules cease to apply to you anymore. Or, maybe that is just my silly attempt to explain the subjective moderating on this blog. Why calling someone an idiot is allowed is beyond my comprehension.


Favoritism? On this blog? Nooooooooooo!! It simply cannot be!! There are rules!!...
Quoting 184. nymore:




It is a track or crawler crane. it is upside down, looks like it blew over from the wind while they were trying to lower it. I would have to say the jib caught the wind pushing it over backward

FWIW it is not a very big crane by the looks of it. In terms of crawler cranes
I think the boom falling took the base unit over with it. The crane had same pretty big outriggers stabilizing it, but the boom looks like it was very large for the base. It looks more like something mechanical rather than wind, but we'll have to wait to see what the experts say.
189. vis0
Quoting 173. sar2401:

I'm only seeing the same pictures that you are so I don't have anything authoritative to add. It looks like a heavy lift crane boom collapsed rather than flipped over. By appearances, it was at least 200 feet long and extremely stout. It's the weight of the boom that caused the injuries and property damage. These kinds of cranes are used safely in building reconstruction projects in the midst of crowded streets and not much area to plant the crane. It could have been a mechanical or material failure in the boom itself or miscalculation of lifting weight versus boom height and swing. We won't know the cause for a couple of days but, unfortunately, NYC is no stranger to fatal crane accidents.
as to weather i found 2 close by readings 41 mph at low levels 45mph a bit higher (~300feet) some workers next door cell phoned the entire fall (very clear view) was on nyc abc7.

some say (NOT OFFICIAL) crane boom  was being lowered due to high wind warning but that should happened a few hours before the low is ~~overhead,  i guess the LOW in surprising those that only checked up on weather reports more than 36 out missed the change in trajectory of the low as reported yesterdau afternoon.
Quoting 133. missionRN14:

There's no mention of the Record level of Sea Ice and the northward migration and increased thickness of the ice sheet in Antartica.

Mainly because it's not true, a quick search reveals that it is now actually below seasonal average.
Quoting 188. sar2401:

It think the boom falling took the base unit over with it. The crane had same pretty big outriggers stabilizing it, but the boom looks like it was very large for the base. It looks more like something mechanical rather than wind, but we'll have to wait to see what the experts say.


There are no outriggers on a track crane. The boom goes with this crane, you just don't throw whatever boom you want on it. Working in this business for over 35 years I am going with wind
Quoting 177. sar2401:

Welcome aboard. Very few of us have any formal met training, although we do have some very talented met school students contributing. Most of us are just geeks that have liked weather most of our lives. You can learn a lot by looking at the models and then checking the forecaster discussions at your local NWS site. They will usually explain a lot of what you're seeing from the models. The same is true for the discussions at the NHC during tropical storm season. If you haven't already done so, take some time to learn and understand surface maps, since they show reality compared to what a model thought would happen. You can become a pretty good amatuer forecaster over time if you take the time to learn some of the background processes.
Thanks Sar! Because of this blog, I've started paying more attention to the local NWS discussions and found it very interesting. It's fun clicking around and seeing all the info provided through the NOAA site. I appreciate the advice. I've attempted to play around with some of the more advanced forecasting models but only end up confusing myself with all the different options and simulations you can create and what they mean. Heck, I still struggle with remembering what the time designations like 0z, 18z etc. mean.
Quoting 189. vis0:


as to weather i found 2 close by readings 41 mph at low levels 45mph a bit higher (~300feet) some workers next door cell phoned the entire fall (very clear view) was on nyc abc7.

Dunno. Most of these heavy high lift cranes are reasonably wind resistant if they are set up and operated properly.
Quoting 178. Qazulight:



Where in South Dakota? I am currently living in Sioux Falls, (on vacation Texas for a few more days.)


Sioux Falls as well. From what I remember of your posts on walking to work along the levee, probably not too far from you. The closest PWS that WU defaults to for me is Dunham Park.
Quoting 191. nymore:



There are no outriggers on a track crane. The boom goes with this crane, you just don't throw whatever boom you want on it. Working in this business for over 35 years I am going with wind
It looked like the crane had outriggers from the video but, only seeing it smashed and upside down, I'm sure you're right. I realize the boom and the crane are a unit, but I think how far up and out the lift is has some effect on the strength and stability of the boom. Any idea how long that crane had been on-site? If it was just recently set up, wind might have been a bigger factor.
196. vis0

Quoting 188. sar2401:

It think the boom falling took the base unit over with it. The crane had same pretty big outriggers stabilizing it, but the boom looks like it was very large for the base. It looks more like something mechanical rather than wind, but we'll have to wait to see what the experts say.
if you knew how many times i see booms that seem to be almost times what it should be for the weights on the base specially the mini cranes (not this type) the ones that have rubber tires i've seen ~6 in the past 2 yrs where if one looks closely the wheels want to go off the ground even though the pads are down one can see its yanking too hard as the lifting begins as if teeter tottering. This type today is a much more serious business crane.

i see frigid air is in the workings, lets see if low to the ground remain cold enough for ice north of you next week, its that heavy cold that stays low to the ground that drivers even walkers have to look out for as just a mist and its slip sliding away - sorry paul simon.
Quoting 192. LuckySD:

Thanks Sar! Because of this blog, I've started paying more attention to the local NWS discussions and found it very interesting. It's fun clicking around and seeing all the info provided through the NOAA site. I appreciate the advice. I've attempted to play around with some of the more advanced forecasting models but only end up confusing myself with all the different options and simulations you can create and what they mean. Heck, I still struggle with remembering what the time designations like 0z, 18z etc. mean.
LOL. A lot of us get messed up trying to translate UTC to local time. I have been looking at models since they were first available to the public. There are times when they are so contradictory and so confusing that I just give up and wait 24 hours to see if they start making sense. One of the things to check is to compare a model at time now and the surface chart. If the model doesn't reasonably represent what we already know is true, that should be a tipoff that maybe the future isn't too accurate either.
Quoting 185. sar2401:

The cold air advection has really set up today. It's only up to 43. With average 10 mph winds and 15 mph gusts, it feels a lot worse when I step outside though. This is the beginning of a week of, if not record cold, really cold for us. Probably won't see a high of 60 or above next six days, and the high Tuesday is supposed to be 43. It doesn't look horribly cold at night, only getting down into the mid-20's, but still pretty darned cold for the land of juleps and magnolias.


Try to save this memory for the thousand days of August
Quoting 135. sar2401:

A little nippy down here in the Heart of Dixie this morning with a temperature of 29. It's colder here than DC or NYC, but at least it's three degrees colder in Cleveland, so I can feel self righteous about that. As usual, the models have flip flopped on the cold wave for the SE next week. Now they are saying just typical winter cold instead of "you'll die if you go outside" cold. It also appears it will be too warm Monday night and Tuesday for any chance of wintry precipitation as well. Of course, it's likely the models will flip flop again before then, so we'll see some other change in scenario for the worse or better. After the downpour Wednesday, an extended period of fry weather, even if it's a little chilly, would be a good thing.


My Citrus probably comes in Tuesday or Wednesday next week. It will take somewhat below freezing when exposed to previous cold. Snow just missed us so kids did not get their hoped for two hour delay. I built a fire in the woodstove for the first time since last Sat.
Quoting 162. Naga5000:



Option 2 sounds pretty accurate. We have people actively denying the world is warming, what an irrational proposition. Also, I do always love a solid semantics argument over word choice by the blog authors. There's always so many nits to pick.


I'm not an English major, but I'm pretty sure that the word absurd was used as an adjective to describe the warmth, therefore option 2 (noun) isn't really relevant here, is it? Not nit picking. Mankind has chosen to give certain groupings/order of letters specific meanings. When we choose to ignore those meanings the conveyance of important ideas and information is lost.

Since you like semantics so much, and you used nits in the plural sense in your snarky reply, the correct wording should have been:

"There are always so many nits to pick." or "There're always so many nits to pick."
Quoting 185. sar2401:

The cold air advection has really set up today. It's only up to 43. With average 10 mph winds and 15 mph gusts, it feels a lot worse when I step outside though. This is the beginning of a week of, if not record cold, really cold for us. Probably won't see a high of 60 or above next six days, and the high Tuesday is supposed to be 43. It doesn't look horribly cold at night, only getting down into the mid-20's, but still pretty darned cold for the land of juleps and magnolias.


I actually prefer it outside right now. Wilmington logic is as follows: if it's below 55 degrees, let's crank indoors to 85. That should set everything straight.
Quoting 196. vis0:


if you knew how many times i see booms that seem to be almost times what it should be for the weights on the base specially the mini cranes (not this type) the ones that have rubber tires i've seen ~6 in the past 2 yrs where if one looks closely the wheels want to go off the ground even though the pads are down one can see its yanking too hard as the lifting begins as if teeter tottering. This type today is a much more serious business crane.

i see frigid air is in the workings, lets see if low to the ground remain cold enough for ice north of you next week, its that heavy cold that stays low to the ground that drivers even walkers have to look out for as just a mist and its slip sliding away - sorry paul simon.

I was just responsible for getting the right cranes on site and making sure they complied with CALOSHA and federal rules. NYC has always seemed like a different world to me when it comes to cranes. They have to squeeze them into tiny spaces and lift 10 or 15 stories at one time. The times I've been there and watched some of the cranes in operation I've made sure I stood out of range if the boom collapsed or fell over. I guess they operate safely most of the time but, as I said before, NYC is not stranger to fatal crane accidents.

There might be a little more moisture available north of me next week but, at least for what the models are showing right now, it won't be enough for any icing. If we get anything, it will be snow up around Huntsville and north since it should be too cold for ice. Of course, the next set of model runs might show a giant ice storm for all I know. It's one of the reasons I don't put a lot of effort into projecting what might happen more than three or four days out in winter down here.
Quoting 201. win1gamegiantsplease:



I actually prefer it outside right now. Wilmington logic is as follows: if it's below 55 degrees, let's crank indoors to 85. That should set everything straight.
It's OK if I'm in the sun and moving around. Taking a rest in the shade today is a bad idea. :-)
Quoting 198. georgevandenberghe:



Try to save this memory for the thousand days of August
Quite true. Once summer sets in, it seems like we'll never have a low below 90 again. This winter has been so relatively warm until now the feeling I'll never be able to go outside without a jacket hasn't happened yet. I might feel more like that next week at this time. It would be kind of nice to see some more snow flurries, but that doesn't look like it's in the cards this far south.
I wanna thank the GFS, Euro and NAM for bringing home such a great Phat Tuesday Fo'cast for Who Dat ville.




Quoting 162. Naga5000:



Option 2 sounds pretty accurate. We have people actively denying the world is warming, what an irrational proposition. Also, I do always love a solid semantics argument over word choice by the blog authors. There's always so many nits to pick.
Greetings Naga..I have learned too that since we are in cyberspace, I have to word things carefully. More that once I was trying to make a specific point, and it can be hard to do on a blog. So much easier to clarify matters on the phone or person to person...:)
Quoting 200. LouisPasteur:



I'm not an English major, but I'm pretty sure that the word absurd was used as an adjective to describe the warmth, therefore option 2 (noun) isn't really relevant here, is it? Not nit picking. Mankind has chosen to give certain groupings/order of letters specific meanings. When we choose to ignore those meanings the conveyance of important ideas and information is lost.

Since you like semantics so much, and you used nits in the plural sense in your snarky reply, the correct wording should have been:

"There are always so many nits to pick." or "There're always so many nits to pick."
Your use of a comma after "warmth" is inappropriate. A period (".") or semicolon (";") is prescribed for that position. (And while we're at it, you do need a comma after "meanings" in the last sentence of the initial paragraph.)

As to your primary complaint, I'd respond by saying that such high temperatures in the Arctic--in January, where the sun hasn't risen in months--can definitely be categorized as "impossible to believe", "logically contradictory", or "contrary to all reason or common sense". And, as those dictionary definitions of the term suggest, the term "absurd" is indeed applicable.

And that concludes today's grammar lesson. Hope you all learned something.
Thanks for that report Bob.
But I'll pass on bathing in the Barents suggestion, despite the salty Atlantic Warm Water influx. Heck, the coastal waters of N Gulf are too cold for me.

Info from North Pole Environmental Observatory offered details on the late December warm event in the Arctic. With the deployment last August of an Airborne Expendable Ice Buoy at the closest position to the pole - NPEO AXIB Buoy 132472 - data showed the sfc air temp rapidly warmed to -8.52C / 16.6F by 03Z Dec 30th.

Oh - and on a historical meteorological note, locally - today marks 20 years since Houma LA last recorded an "official" low temp reading in the teens, with a 19F during the frigid blast Feb 5 1996 (USDA, older official COOP site, now discontinued). Though did come close 2 years ago with 21F on Jan 7 2014 (KHUM arpt / non-NWS standards) - and home thermo did fall to 18.5F for coldest reading I've had since the Feb '96 blast (was 15F then).
Quoting 208. Patrap:

re-loaded'

A real time look at the crane collapse this morning in NYC

via NBC on FB
Yikes. The way metal "screams" when it's horribly overstressed like that is just freaky. Couldn't see from the video, was there a load on at the time of collapse?
Quoting 93. BayFog:


Aha. A fellow train geek. Who would have guessed? Yep, I noticed the same whenever I watched those movies...the movies where half the time was a close shot on the eyes, with a funky dramatic crescendo of faux "western" music.
I have noticed over the years that there does seem to be some correlation between being a weather geek and train buff. I don't know why that is, maybe a fascination with things mechanical or something like that. I was lucky enough to be born just in time to still see steam engines in operation pulling real trains, not tourist runs, on the NKP and N&W. I think I always liked them for the same reason I like thunderstorms - big, noisy, and powerful. A steam engine in winter even looks like it's creating it's own series of cumulonimbus as it chugs its way down the tracks. :-)
Quoting 210. Neapolitan:

Your use of a comma after "warmth" is inappropriate. A period (".") or semicolon (";") is prescribed for that position. (And while we're at it, you do need a comma after "meanings" in the last sentence of the initial paragraph.)

As to your primary complaint, I'd respond by saying that such high temperatures in the Arctic--in January, where the sun hasn't risen in months--can definitely be categorized as "impossible to believe", "logically contradictory", or "contrary to all reason or common sense". And, as those dictionary definitions of the term suggest, the term "absurd" is indeed applicable.

And that concludes today's grammar lesson. Hope you all learned something.


I never claimed to be a grammarian, but I will continue to maintain that words have meanings, and in this case, despite your flailing attempts to try to twist the definition of "absurd" into something that it is not, the word choice was just plain wrong. I've got to hand it to you, you keep coming back for more, although your condescension is tiresome. Your previous attempt to describe absurd as a noun in the headline failed, so you decided to forget you wrote that and come back with an irrelevant attack to try to distract from your previous failing. Admirable.
215. OKsky
Quoting 200. LouisPasteur:



I'm not an English major, but I'm pretty sure that the word absurd was used as an adjective to describe the warmth, therefore option 2 (noun) isn't really relevant here, is it? Not nit picking. Mankind has chosen to give certain groupings/order of letters specific meanings. When we choose to ignore those meanings the conveyance of important ideas and information is lost.

Since you like semantics so much, and you used nits in the plural sense in your snarky reply, the correct wording should have been:

"There are always so many nits to pick." or "There're always so many nits to pick."


Modern linguistics recognizes the fluidity of language. "Nouning" verbs and adjectives is a common example of this. Of course a possible downside is loss of information. Grammer pedantry usually just adds noise to a conversation.

Also I just wanted to say "hey" to everyone. Like LuckySD, I have been a lurker for awhile and enjoy reading and learning from the weather geek discourse here. :)
Quoting 212. LuckySD:

Yikes. The way metal "screams" when it's horribly overstressed like that is just freaky. Couldn't see from the video, was there a load on at the time of collapse?
I don't know what the heck all the noise in the background was before the crane fell. Given that it was taken from a closed window on the thirtieth floor of a building a fair bit away from the crane, I don't think it was noise coming from the crane boom. Sounded more like someone using a Dremel in that office. Of course, with all the bleeping noise as the crowd of New Yorkers responded in typical New York City fashion, it was mostly bleeping toward the end. It doesn't look like the crane had a load when it went down. Either it was being lowered due to winds or to get another load of material. Either way, the downward speed was too fast for the crane operator to keep control. Some of the comments on the FB page are hilarious, including one woman wanting know if people in the building called the police to warn them the crane was collapsing!
Just a warming comment in DC


The past three springs have been late and strong in the Mid Atlantic meaning cold held on into April but then the latter part of April and May were above normal. This pattern was especially strong in 2015 where we were looking at potentially record breaking late cherry blossoms in mid April and then only a month later May was record warm
and I was looking at record early warm season crops (melons)
We haven't had a below normal May since 2009 actually.

Of note six of our twelve record warmest moths have occurred in the past 10 years

October 2007
June 2010
July 2011
March 2012
May 2015
December 2015


And our warmest quarters

Summer 2010
Spring 2012.


We haven't had a record cold month since uuhh... geez.. .. .. dunno.. not since I've lived here. Actually most of them were in the 1800s and early 1900s.
Well I see people have been ansty this morning on the blog.I'll come on later when the full model suit has been released.

Quoting 215. OKsky:



Modern linguistics recognizes the fluidity of language. "Nouning" verbs and adjectives is a common example of this. Of course a possible downside is loss of information. Grammer pedantry usually just adds noise to a conversation.

Also I just wanted to say "hey" to everyone. Like LuckySD, I have been a lurker for awhile and enjoy reading and learning from the weather geek discourse here. :)
Kind of like using "insane" to describe the rain rate or, my favorite, "gifting". I've been on earth long enough to see many words morph meanings. I may not always like it, but it is one of the strengths of the English language. As you say, discussions about what meaning one word in a story had is probably more distracting than just making an assumption about what the writer meant.

P.S. Welcome aboard also. :-)
The Globe has not seen a cold biased monthly avg temp in 31 years....0r 372 straight months.


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 175. tampabaymatt:



Probably. I think when you reach 100,000 comments, the rules cease to apply to you anymore. Or, maybe that is just my silly attempt to explain the subjective moderating on this blog. Why calling someone an idiot is allowed is beyond my comprehension.
Well, because it wasn't really personal, just kind of a comment, especially if it's stashed in among enough other semi-words and cryptic phrasing to sort of sneak it in. Now, if I'd call you a moron, just like that,then would be personal. :-)

EDIT: never fails...
re: 213. sar2401 and 93. BayFog
Trains and weather… Our fascination with things Big and Powerful.
LOL, indeed - I bet Oklahomans probably say "that train sounded just like a tornado roarin' thru"… ;)
And then there's a great video capture from last year, "snow plowing" - Dashing Thru the Snow.

Oops, too slow, new blog up...
Quoting 133. missionRN14:

There's no mention of the Record level of Sea Ice and the northward migration and increased thickness of the ice sheet in Antartica.

Of course not. But you're not interested - otherwise you'd know why.
Quoting 214. LouisPasteur:



I never claimed to be a grammarian, but I will continue to maintain that words have meanings, and in this case, despite your flailing attempts to try to twist the definition of "absurd" into something that it is not, the word choice was just plain wrong. I've got to hand it to you, you keep coming back for more, although your condescension is tiresome. Your previous attempt to describe absurd as a noun in the headline failed, so you decided to forget you wrote that and come back with an irrelevant attack to try to distract from your previous failing. Admirable.
Dear friend, I don't recall any attempt to describe "absurd" as a noun; in both the context used above and in my lucid defense of it, "absurd" is most definitely an adjective. ("The Absurd" is a noun, but that's not the usage here.) Therefore, I believe you've mistaken me with Naga or possibly someone else. From long experience here, I can tell you that It will be easier for all involved if you do your best keep track of who said what. Thanks!

As to the main subject: if the headline writer--Bob Henson--felt it appropriate to refer to last month's Arctic temperatures as "absurd", he's correct in doing so. I'm of the belief, as are most grammarians, that dictionaries should be descriptive, not prescriptive. That stiff-necked prescriptive stuff went out with button shoes. As Humpty Dumpty stated so eloquently in Through the Looking Glass: "When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less."

Have a good one.
Quoting 226. Neapolitan:

Dear friend, I don't recall any attempt to describe "absurd" as a noun; in both the context used above and in my lucid defense of it, "absurd" is most definitely an adjective. ("The Absurd" is a noun, but that's not the usage here.) Therefore, I believe you've mistaken me with Naga or possibly someone else. From long experience here, I can tell you that It will be easier for all involved if you do your best keep track of who said what. Thanks!

As to the main subject: if the headline writer--Bob Henson--felt it appropriate to refer to last month's Arctic temperatures as "absurd", he's correct in doing so. I'm of the belief, as are most grammarians, that dictionaries should be descriptive, not prescriptive. That stiff-necked prescriptive stuff went out with button shoes. As Humpty Dumpty stated so eloquently in Through the Looking Glass: "When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less."

Have a good one.


Dear amigo,
My mistake and my apology. Your posts are usually stylistically, condescendingly and dogmatically so much in lockstep with Naga's that I assumed you were one and the same. Maybe your button shoes, whatever those are, are too tight.

I did enjoy the Humpty Dumpty quote. Thankfully, however, humanity doesn't follow Humpty's definition of what is a word. Could you imagine a world in which no written agreement, legal ruling, scientific discovery, piece of literature or even a blog followed that logic? Language would be useless.

tschüß
Quoting 227. LouisPasteur:



Dear amigo,
My mistake and my apology. Your posts are usually stylistically, condescendingly and dogmatically so much in lockstep with Naga's that I assumed you were one and the same. Maybe your button shoes, whatever those are, are too tight.

I did enjoy the Humpty Dumpty quote. Thankfully, however, humanity doesn't follow Humpty's definition of what is a word. Could you imagine a world in which no written agreement, legal ruling, scientific discovery, piece of literature or even a blog followed that logic? Language would be useless.

tschüß
Apology accepted--though I have to tell you, it's an honor to have my scribblings confused with Naga's. Great minds thnk alike, as they say...
229. vis0

Quoting 216. sar2401:

I don't know what the heck all the noise in the background was before the crane fell. Given that it was taken from a closed window on the thirtieth floor of a building a fair bit away from the crane, I don't think it was noise coming from the crane boom. Sounded more like someone using a Dremel in that office. Of course, with all the bleeping noise as the crowd of New Yorkers responded in typical New York City fashion, it was mostly bleeping toward the end. It doesn't look like the crane had a load when it went down. Either it was being lowered due to winds or to get another load of material. Either way, the downward speed was too fast for the crane operator to keep control. Some of the comments on the FB page are hilarious, including one woman wanting know if people in the building called the police to warn them the crane was collapsing!
if its the VID i saw it was several guy doing internal construction work in a building next door on the ~40th floor so odds are

(THOUGH  i  ONLY SAW THE ipod  VID had my audio on mute)

it was tools they where using or a NYc dentists office.
230. vis0
Quoting 214. LouisPasteur:



I never claimed to be a grammarian, but I will continue to maintain that words have meanings, and in this case, despite your flailing attempts to try to twist the definition of "absurd" into something that it is not, the word choice was just plain wrong. I've got to hand it to you, you keep coming back for more, although your condescension is tiresome. Your previous attempt to describe absurd as a noun in the headline failed, so you decided to forget you wrote that and come back with an irrelevant attack to try to distract from your previous failing. Admirable.
If you where to quote Nature as to what is happening to the beautiful planet that gawd and/or creation via  chance through scientific interactions has presented to mankind  this might be what you would have to read and please correct If there are any errors. (i see 107 errors)

NATURE:: "@#! %$%###!, &%$#$!!  and how can man #$##@!   %$%#! such a lovely planet that gives man most of his needs. Further ^%%#! *&*&$#!!  #$@#! "$#$%$%@#$!""

sincerely,
NATURE

i hope i typed everything Nature expressed as to the absurd use of the planets resources.

Not spell checked as my spell check printed out a coupon for soap then an image of water and an open mouth.
Quoting 171. Tazmanian:




some of you over re act a lot on here but the i re moved the post
"Some of you" is Taz!