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Above average hurricane season expected by Dr. Bill Gray's team

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:23 PM GMT on June 03, 2008

An above average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2008, according to today's seasonal forecast issued by Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (CSU). The Gray/Klotzbach team is calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 150% of normal--unchanged from their April forecast. These numbers are also the what the Atlantic has averaged since we entered a period of above-average hurricane activity in 1995. An average season has 10-11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The Klotzbach/Gray forecast calls for an above normal chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (45% chance, 31% chance is normal) and the Gulf Coast (44% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is also forecast to have an above average risk of a major hurricane.

The forecasters cite the continuation of the above-normal hurricane activity period that began in 1995, the expected lack of an El Niño event, the continuation of above average sea surface temperatures and below average pressure in the eastern Atlantic, and slower trade winds (which result in reduced evaporative cooling of the ocean), as the justification for their forecast of an above average hurricane season. It's of interest to look at the activity maps for the four analogue years that had similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions in May: 1951, 1961, 2000, and 2001. The 1961 season was the nastiest of these four seasons, with two Category 5 hurricanes. One of those storms, the notorious Hurricane Carla, hit Texas as a mighty Category 4 hurricane with a 22-foot storm surge. The other three seasons had no hurricanes that hit the U.S.


Figure 1. Sea Surface Temperature departure from average from May 29, 2008. Caribbean SSTs are near average, but are much above average in the Eastern Atlantic. Image credit: NOAA.

How good are the CSU forecasts?
The CSU forecast team has been making seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1984. Based on predictions of a below average, average, or above average season, they have done pretty well over the past nine seasons. Eight of the past nine forecasts have been correct. Their only failure occurred in 2006, when they called for a very active season, and it was a normal year with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. A more rigorous way of determining forecast skill is to compute the mathematical correlation coefficient. A correlation coefficient of 1.0 is a perfect forecast, and 0.0 is a no-skill forecast. The late May CSU forecasts have a respectable correlation coefficient of 0.57 for predicting the number of named storms (1984-2006). This decreases a bit to 0.46 and 0.42 for number of hurricanes and intense hurricanes, respectively. These are respectable correlation coefficients, and the late May/early June CSU forecasts are worth paying attention to. This is in contrast to the December and April CSU forecasts, which have had a correlation coefficient near zero (and thus no skill).

Other forecasts
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issues monthly 2008 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts. Their June 2 forecast calls for a 53% chance of an above average season. This compares to the 65% chance of an above average season given by NOAA in their May 22 forecast.

Last blog entry for a week
This will be my final blog entry until June 11. With the tropics looking quiet for the next week, it's a good time to do some hiking in SW Montana. In my absence, I've arranged for a few "canned" blogs of mine to be posted. If there's anything stirring in the tropics, I've arranged for a guest blogger, Bryan Woods, to jump in. Bryan has done a great job over the past three years blogging on the tropics over at thestormtrack.com. Here's Bryan's bio:

Bryan received his BS in Meteorology from the University of Massachusetts in Lowell, MA in 2005, and his M.Phil. in Geology & Geophysics from Yale University in New Haven, CT in 2007. Bryan is currently a Ph.D. candidate at Yale where he is also the graduate and professional student body president.

Bryan has spent two summers working on a National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored field micrometeorological research project in Atlanta, GA, studying evapotranspiration rates in urban forest canopies. Currently, Bryan's research is focused on combining wavelet techniques and aircraft data from the NSF/NCAR Gulfstream V to diagnose energy and momentum fluxes from atmospheric gravity waves. Bryan has spent the past three hurricane seasons writing blogs on the tropics for thestormtrack.com.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Last night my area was under a tornado warning and thank goodness the worst of it was just south of my neighborhood. An EF0 has been reported but no damage reported except for some fallen branches.
It feels to me, I have this strange gut feeling, that its a time bomb... ready to be ticket of at the slightest, flip of the switch, its just a question of time. Just a gut feeling, don't go out
to publix for ice yet.
Fire831....I too am on the Gulf Coast, 1 block from the Hard Rock and I have to agree with you, after Katrina everything here went up but wages.
1005. JLPR
The Catl wave still seems to have a good structure but there is zero convection, dry air and SAL are doing a great job with this one =D So for the moment I don't expect any surprises from Africa =)
Gulfcoast, I'm seriously thinking of leaving Mississippi because of everything that has happened here. I mean, the average joe can't make a decent life here on the coast. Not for what employers are paying.
1005. JLPR 6:04 PM CST on June 04, 2008 Thanks....And Now Back to the Weather.....
1008. Patrap
We've seen this Before Folks..
Im a telling ya,..dont let this Early season slow activity be a true indicator of whats to come.

Back to you in the studio,Christina.

Good evening everyone,

I see now there are no storms or invests ANYWHERE in the world for the tropics; that is unusual. So is anything due to be popping up anytime soon. Florida drought map now has no greens or blues on it of any shade..all orange or reds which is not good. We need rain.. and nice slow tropical depression to give us a good soakin rain, especially out over the Everglades and Lake O and in the Rivers that run thru the state.

Sure hope something happens soon!

Have a great evening!
1010. Drakoen
The SST's are also too low to support organized convection as mentioned by the NHC. Its the first week of June folks lol. No storms form out there this time of year. I think the closest was Ana east of the Lesser Antilles. It wasn't a cape verde storm.
1010. well, that was a douse of COLD WATER! LOL
All I'm saying is we all need to be well prepared for a rough season. Let's see. Mexico got hit twice last year in almost the same spot by two CAT 5 storms. If anyone thinks it can't happen here, we're in deep trouble. But you know, that's just my opinion.
The season has yet to be written, preparation is the story so far.
1014. Drakoen
Global model guidance suggest unfavorable conditions will continue to persist for at least a week. If you use your water vapor imagery you can see why.
1015. Patrap




The Waves were Like..Just awesome dude...

But I dont think in retrospect our location was the safest.

Man that surge came up Fast.

I was like..totally..jaw-Jacked dude.
Really
1016. Drakoen
2005's second storm didn't form until June 28th and 2004's first storm didn't even form untill July 31st lol. Its calm before the storm.

I think Arthur was a great way to start the season.
there's the old cacciatore! LOL

/can't wait until a flying stop sign propelled by hurricane-force winds lops his head off on live television! LOL
1018. Drakoen
1017. pearlandaggie 12:16 AM GMT on June 05, 2008
there's the old cacciatore! LOL

can't wait until a flying stop sign propelled by hurricane-force winds lops his head off on live television! LOL



ROFL!
Better yet, Pearl. Make it a billboard or a car!!
1020. Patrap
Coming to Your Town Soon?

Jim the Cantore of Doom...
1019. LOL! how about a garden rake through the heart! now THAT'S devious :)
1022. Patrap
Cool Off with some neat NASA Hurricane Hot Towers Video..

patrap..you should photoshop of picture of cacciatore with his head in his hand and a stop sign stuck in the wall behind him! LOL
Ooooh! Owww! Dirty! One time he's just gonna blow off the screen and the cameraman is gonna pan and follow him while he's screaming into the mic about how bad the winds are... Comical!
1025. surfmom
we are all such worry warts LOL --although I get the creeps too if I think too much. My older son just graduated a commercial dive school. He's a certified underwater-welder and Diver EMT. Working for a dive company out of Miami, he can be sent anywhere from the Bahamas, Carib., Venezuela, PR, Netherlands -the job itself is intense, added with soup of hurricane ingredients I am a bit edgy. A mother's job is never done
1025. just keep telling yourself, "that's why he makes the big bucks." very few good-paying jobs come without some degree of risk. i hope he does well and grows old! :)
1027. surfmom
Cheers re996 bluehaze!!! They've destroyed paradise w/hummer houses, walls so high you can't see the water, shopping malls, mulch and fertilizer. I think we ought to ban all air conditioners --then only those who truly love SWFL will stay LOL
1028. hahaguy
Oh everyone i just saw Cantore in my town. I guess this means some troubles a coming. LMAO
we are all such worry warts LOL

you know, i honestly don't sweat it too much. i learned to deal with this kind of stuff when i lived in dallas and every spring was accompanied by hail and clouds swirling as if they were in a blender. the only thing one can control is one's level of preparedness (patrap, this is your opportunity to plug your preparedness page). i usually get the last details completed with my preparedness when the signs of trouble first appear, long before landfall!
1030. surfmom
If we do get smacked it will be interesting to see how it affect politics --I always feel that weather (mother nature) holds these surprises --civilizations/governments have been radically affected by the unplanned chaos of nature.
1031. Patrap
7 years ago this one came alive and did Catastrophic flooding.

1032. JLPR
If a cat5 hits PR we will pretty much have to plant corn and vegetables and cook in a fire outside =P lol
we would go back like 70years into the past considering how bad the economy is =S
1033. Drakoen
This is potentially one of the best features wunderground has aside from the "ignore user" and "Ban User"


Really goes to show how inconsistent the models are and how the dynamic can change.
Link
Patrap, you teasing us with your rain videos? That's just cruel. It was 91 degrees out today in the shade. And you're showing flood videos...
1035. surfmom
Well I am OK, got a good food stash, generator-up high, propane tanks, auto-metal storm shutters, a safe room, etc. We all have our jobs - so my hacienda is tight. Have all my cat & dog supplies, emergency radio, water, and frankly I don't worry till it's time to worry (why waste energy) The horses I care for --well that's a bit more stressful - I have all their ID ready (cattle crayon to write the phone number of my boss on their bodies - both sides, plus tying ID on to their manes and tails, NO halters because horses can get "caught=up", but having my "young buck" son out there...........hmmmmm that will take some getting use to. thankfully - I think - he did not pick an oil rig to work, instead he's mostly doing ships husbandry/marine construction
1036. JLPR
yep although I don't trust models anymore they change their mids too much =P
I trust them until they reach 72hrs beyond that all can change =)
1037. surfmom
No rain videos - i want the REAL THING!!!
1038. Drakoen
1036. JLPR 12:53 AM GMT on June 05, 2008
yep although I don't trust models anymore they change their mids too much =P
I trust them until they reach 72hrs beyond that all can change =)


Yea. They do better with cyclogenesis than track except for the CMC that develops everything.
1033.
That was an awesome post, thanks very much! I remember watching Jeanne and thinking... NOT AGIAN. It was two weeks after Frances. I live in West Palm which is just a tad south of the landfall of them BOTH! lol.
Before I read the key to the different models off to the side, I was thinking that WOW... this black model is REALLY accurate! LMAO =)
1040. JLPR
wow surfmom you are all ready =) I don't need many storm shutters since my house is between two other houses but the front and the back are exposed
Umm but now I think we didn't put any in the front when Georges passed =P Now in terms of food Im not doing so well =P
Wow Surfmom...I'd say your schtick is together!
I blew the leaves out of my gutters a couple of weeks ago and we still haven't gotten enough rain to even run anything off the roof! Must say now though this is how '04 was in Florida. Dry, hot. hot. hot. And then wham! August-September was hurricane alley here. I honestly have no idea what's going to happen this year, though. I just sincerely hope N'Oleans and Gulfport stay out of the bullseye.
I mean if you develop everything, you're gonna be right about 11 times a season. =)
1043. Drakoen
1039. HurricaneGeek 12:56 AM GMT on June 05, 2008
1033.
That was an awesome post, thanks very much! I remember watching Jeanne and thinking... NOT AGIAN. It was two weeks after Frances. I live in West Palm which is just a tad south of the landfall of them BOTH! lol.
Before I read the key to the different models off to the side, I was thinking that WOW... this black model is REALLY accurate! LMAO =)


ROFL!
1044. JLPR
lol 1039 =P

drak yep the cmc sees a little blob and turns it into a cat 5 in 3 days =P lol its crazy
Good Night Folks.........
alright take care weathermanwannabe.
How have you been Drakoen?


Hmmm.... Makes you wonder about the 2008 hurricane season!
1048. Drakoen
1046. HurricaneGeek 1:01 AM GMT on June 05, 2008
alright take care weathermanwannabe.
How have you been Drakoen?


Good! You?
1049. Drakoen
I feel bad for the CMC but it has just as much respect from me as the NAM in regards to cyclogenesis.
1050. hahaguy
1033.
ah yes the wonderful jeanne. My jaw dropped when i saw jeanne coming right at us lol.
1051. GetReal
Yeah once the first hurricane gets into the central Caribbean, and is forecast to enter the GOM, the price of gasoline nationwide will rise quicker than they can change the prices at the pump!


What'll happen to the Gulf states if another storm hits. Talk about the south rising again... LOL.
Yeah once the first hurricane gets into the central Caribbean, and is forecast to enter the GOM, the price of gasoline nationwide will rise quicker than they can change the prices at the pump!

A lot of us will be walking to work once that happens.
What'll happen to the Gulf states if another storm hits. Talk about the south rising again... LOL.

All depends on where it hits. Some areas haven't been significantly affected by a hurricane in a long time. Even during 2004 and 2005 some areas escaped a hurricane.
1055. Drakoen
1050. hahaguy 1:07 AM GMT on June 05, 2008
1033.
ah yes the wonderful jeanne. My jaw dropped when i saw jeanne coming right at as lol.


Yea. That feature on wunderground is great and you can look at the forecast verification for other storms too.
1056. surfmom
Husband travels alot, I have two cats, dog, chickens --the polo horses are out east where my boss lives-- I'm not evacuating - so I have to be prepared. the best part is having the safe room. Also have kayaks, life jackets, power saw blah blah. We worked out everything after seeing our friends suffer horribly on the east coast after Frances & Jeanne. I took notes and saw who survived well and who didn't. I do not depend on government for anything other then taking my taxes. When we added an addition to our house (which is on one of the highest elevations in SRQ) we built an interior 2-story core 0 kinda goes under the staircase. That was reinforced with more re-bar and poured concrete then I could imagine. Now husband travels and I don't get panic attacks.
1048.
I too. Thanks.
Really, besides the black model, Drakoen, it seems as though the NOGAPS did the best with Jeanne. Especially towards the end. By end I mean landfall.
1058. Drakoen
1053. KoritheMan 1:08 AM GMT on June 05, 2008
Yeah once the first hurricane gets into the central Caribbean, and is forecast to enter the GOM, the price of gasoline nationwide will rise quicker than they can change the prices at the pump!

A lot of us will be walking to work once that happens.


lol. Gas @$5 a gallon. I remember the good old days when gas was a dollar and some change.
1059. Drakoen
1057. HurricaneGeek 1:10 AM GMT on June 05, 2008
1048.
I too. Thanks.
Really, besides the black model, Drakoen, it seems as though the NOGAPS did the best with Jeanne. Especially towards the end. By end I mean landfall.


The NOGAPS has its moments lol. The GFS was the first to pick up on the curve.
1060. JLPR

Gas @$5 a gallon. I remember the good old days when gas was a dollar and some change.


lol lets get the bikes out =P
1061. surfmom
I will never forget Jeanne - tried to surf that one too soon, winds were over 20 and a gust picked up my board, smashed me in my face and broke my nose. I remember seeing all the blood and thinking I was chum for sharks, I paddled to shore where this hunk surfer picked me up off the sand and carried me to my car --I couldn't believe I had to look SO BAD when some dude so gorgeous was holding me.
1062. NOWCAST
06-03-2005



I'm out for a while. Back to lurking mode for a while. Let me know if something stirs up. Send me an email...
1064. Drakoen
lol JLPR, they'll increase bike prices. Trust me. Get 'em while they're cheap.
1059.
True I see what you mean. the NOGAPS leaves no gaps... lol get it? ok.
lol. Gas @$5 a gallon. I remember the good old days when gas was a dollar and some change.

Yeah. Those were the days. But we can never have them back. I don't even see gas going down to what it was in 2005 when Katrina threatened.

lol lets get the bikes out =P

That won't be a joke if a hurricane threatens. Seriously. Hell, even if a hurricane, by some very unlikely chance, DOESN'T threaten, gas will probably get so high in a few years that we might have to do that.
1067. GetReal
Drak unfortunately I would not be surprised to see $6.00 per gallon for gasoline, once a Cat 2+ gets into the GOM and just threatens the north central GOM... OIL Speculators!!!
1068. NOWCAST
06-03-2008

1069. NOWCAST
06-03-2004

1070. JLPR
1064. Drakoen 9:15 PM AST on Junio 04, 2008
lol JLPR, they'll increase bike prices. Trust me. Get 'em while they're cheap.


lol yeah then umm how about some skates? =P
1071. Drakoen
1065. HurricaneGeek 1:16 AM GMT on June 05, 2008
1059.
True I see what you mean. the NOGAPS leaves no gaps... lol get it? ok.


lol......

@Korithe: All it takes is a hurricane. Major hurricane would be worst. Instant inflation.

1072. Drakoen
1070. JLPR 1:20 AM GMT on June 05, 2008
1064. Drakoen 9:15 PM AST on Junio 04, 2008
lol JLPR, they'll increase bike prices. Trust me. Get 'em while they're cheap.

lol yeah then umm how about some skates? =P



10-20 miles in skates??? I don't think so.
1073. JLPR
lol then lets walk =P
1074. surfmom
Hey I ride some fast polo ponys, geeze can't imagine depending on a horses to get from point A to point B --and yet the saying goes there is a horse shoe print along side of man on the road to civilization --or something to that affect
1075. surfmom
got to be up b/4 the sun tomorrow, dog wants a walk , nite all
1056. surfmom

I was in Stuart when Jeanne came ashore...an awesome, incredible night! I decided then that I'd run at CAT 4 and FLY for a CAT 5. I lived in Mandeville LA when Katrina was in the Gulf; we went to bed on Saturday night just knowing the she was a CAT3 and about to make a large easterly turn. We woke up Sunday 8-28-05 and she was a CAT5 and seemed to be pointing at the tree in our front yard. Surfmom, be very careful; the best laid plans of mice and men can still get you killed...
As for fuel prces, put a CAT 3 in the GOM forcing the platforms to be evac'ed and fuel will jump $1-2 /gal overnight; put one ashore at Houston and fuel will jump another $2/gal (just a prediction). Ladies and gentlemen, $7/gal fuel is not impossible...what will happen at that point is that the OPEC boys will jump production trying to drop the prices and stimulate consumption (sales will drop through the floor at $5/gal; what do you suppose it will do at $7?)
the only reason gas went up so much after Katrina, is b/c one of the major pipelines tying several production platforms together was offline for almost two months. ITs very unlikely to happen again...thats not to say the speculative nature of the market wont drive the price up. It should go back down in a few days following a storm.
Koritheman, personally, I think these gas prices are all BS. It's just like the Enron scam from a few years ago. Where are the rolling blackouts in California today. There aren't any because the crisis was fabricated. Much of the scam is speculation and much is the devaluation of the dollar by almost 100% to the Euro since 2000 when one can purchase a Euro on credit card purchases for 82 cents. Today, it's at about $1.55 to $1.60 for that same Euro. I have no doubt that gas will skyrocket if a hurricane makes it into the gulf. Every excuse under the sun has been and will continue to be used to screw us more. On the positive side, India stopped subsidizing their gas so the price over there went up 60% over night. That should slow down demand don't you think? My guess is that once a new president is in office, the speculation die down and prices will come down. If it skyrockets to say $6-$10 a gallon, I wouldn't doubt that social unrest will follow. Any bets on global social unrest if a hurricane wipes out the oil platforms?
A lot of us will be walking to work once that happens.

Not me. The only thing good about living in a populated area, is that there is a lovely public transportation system.
1078. cajunkid

Take out any port tied to refining facilities (Houston or New Orleans) and you drive the prices up...if Houston takes a hit, it will get very bad...I don't think anyone in here is old enough to remember the fuel rationing in WWII, but it will likely be as bad, if not worse, at least at the on set. There will be profiteering, of course, and those guys will be posting prices in the $7-8/gal range; in St Louis on 9-12-01, there were gas stations charging $5 /gal. Didn't last long and the staions in question were independents, but there you have it.
1082. Drakoen
lol $10 a gallon will lead to anarchism...
convection is firing once again near the low in the CATL tropical wave
bluehaze, it's not so much the patforms; if we relied on the oil pumped in the GOM, we'd already have $10/gal fuel; it's about the infrastructure tied to the refineries. The price starts to jump when the platforms evac because of the disrupted shipping and the eminent danger to the refining facilities
Gas at $10/gallon is fine with me. Only part of it I don't like is all the trillions of dollars getting sucked out of the USA and going overseas.
1087. Drakoen
Here's what we need all at the same time to get gas prices to $20 dollars a gallon.
1088. Drakoen
1086. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 1:57 AM GMT on June 05, 2008
Gas at $10/gallon is fine with me. Only part of it I don't like is all the trillions of dollars getting sucked out of the USA and going overseas.


lol thats ok? You're not a middle class citizen?
LMAO Drak! That would about do it!
Gas at $10/gallon is fine with me

Yea, nice that you care so much about the rest of the folks in this nation and the impact this would have on all of us...
You're not a middle class citizen?

Ya think Drak :~)
Evening everybody. I'm just in from work - long day, and I'm not staying too long, but I couldn't resist a few comments on tonight's topics of interest.

On the verification maps of Jeanne, I remember sitting at the computer and seeing that cone of doom with the black line running right up the Bahamas . . . not a good feeling. Then the storm split and the part that continued to be Jeanne went due north. Most people didn't believe it. The most interesting part about Jeanne is that although it took that detour, it ended up hitting the FL coast in almost exactly the same spot where it had originally been forecast to strike . . .

1062. NOWCAST 9:13 PM EDT on June 04, 2008

I always find this map interesting because it shows the banks and continental shelves which sometimes act as inhibitors to storms strengthening.

On the current slow period, just remember the June average is about 3 storms every two years. La Nina years tend not to get active until the end of July, so we are likely to have a few more weeks of quiet. However, I notice that that Twave we were watch, the one in the CATL, is much higher than the last one that ran into S. America. If this one holds up, it looks likely to cross the Greater Antilles. So we may not get real storms, but I don't think we will have absolutely NOTHING to watch . . ..
1093. Drakoen
Yea SJ... us working class citizens can't afford that.

BTW, is anyone else having trouble loading this blog. I have high-speed internet and I can access everything else fast except this blog... bandwith issue?
Floodman, you'd think with these oil companies making money hand over fist, they'd reinvest some of that money into their refineries to make them a) less like to have a break down like we are always seeing, and b) make the refineries and platforms as hurricane proof as possible. I say along with your typical hurricane supplies, you stock up on some ammo and a weapon because you can bet your bippies that the thieves will be out. Picture mad max or water world. That's kind of what it was like after Andrew for the first 2-3 months. Imagine $6+ gas and how desparate people will act. There will be a lot of puntured gas tanks.
Yep Drak, the blog has be botched and slow all day
yea drak...I thought it was my puter....sj...What's happenin here?
No clue press. Server issues or some other problem with WU
Soon a cat 6 will form...
1099. Drakoen
It's taking like over minute to load the page and I thought it was a problem with my connection initially but then every other website I went to load fine so...oh well. A lot of server issues this year...
Hey, Drak. Don't wish that on us. Of course, you know, with the way the environmentalists are saying things are going, be my luck, it would happen.. LOL. Imagine the headline: SIX CAT 5 STORMS POUND THE GULF OF MEXICO. GULF OF MEXICO NOW 1 1/2 TIMES LARGER THAN BEFORE. FROM BROWNSVILE, TX TO TAMPA BAY, FL COMPLETELY MISSING FROM THE US. GAS PRICES AT AN ALL TIME HIGH. LOWEST PRICE NOW $40 A GALLON. LIGHT SWEET CRUDE SHOOTS TO $500 A BARREL. IN OTHER NEWS, THE DOW JONES DROPPED 2000 POINTS TO SETTLE AT -900. INVESTORS WORRIED THE STOCK MARKET WILL NEVER RECOVER.
yup...time to put your money back into real estate...
1102. Drakoen
lol Fire831rescue, so funny yet so possible...
1094. bluehaze27

I agree with you, haze, 100%. People tend to lay back and wait until they have to do something; we're about to have some serious energy issues and where are the alternative energy resources? Where is the research? More refineries, yes, safer refineries yes, but alternative methods of energy need to be ready in 5 years, maybe 10...look at the information available on these resources...25-50 years. Too little too late, I'm afraid. We're all in for some interesting times and soon...

Okay, I'm off my soapbox...I need to take a painkiller or two and try to get some sleep. Hold down the fort, ya'll; I'll see you in the morning!
1104. OUSHAWN
Looks like we may have a new invest in the EPAC before too long.
stormttop get over your self
Not to interrupt the tropics discussion (I've been a lurker forever), but I just grabbed this image of an incredibly nasty storm that just passed just a couple of miles north of where I live. I'm almost afraid do see tomorrow what exactly the damage was...

That looks to be an F5
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Cyclone Formation Alert
01:30 UTC June 5 2008

==========================================

An area of convection (99A) located near 16.4N 65.9E or 425 NM west-southwest of Mumbai, India. Recent animated infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection developing near a consolidating low level circulation center evident in a 2120z AMSR-E Microwave Satellite Image. Strong low level westerly flow on the equatorward side of the disturbance is aiding spin-up of the low level circulation center. Although the disturbance lies in a region of moderate easterly vertical wind shear on the equatorward side of an upper level ridge axis, it is tracking steadily poleward toward an area of lower vertical wind shear closer to the ridge axis. Strong westward diffluence aloft continues to aid convective development, reinforcing recent low level intensification.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 27-32 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1001 mb. Based on increasing low level organization, and with moderate shear remaining as the main limiting factor, the potential for this disturbance to form into a cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT IS NOW IN EFFECT. THIS ALERT MAY BE RE-ISSUED, CANCELLED, OR UPGRADED TO A WARNING BY 0130 UTC 06JUN 2008.

Actually we are in top 1% of income. But that's not the main point. I think people need to be pushed into conserving more---and high gas prices have been the only way to do that.
Where is that and what elevation scan are you useing..
Cripes Drak, I remember when it was .80 a gal.
But that was still when there was leaded and unleaded.
can you link to the page with that storm on it
theres some nasty ones out there more to come as the qasi stationary front of leading warm and humid air slowly advances and lifts nne ward next serval days then it will be followed by a sharp cold front later in the period which will generate even strong to extreme severe weather it gonna be a bit bumpy for a bit to say the least
looks like its from Omaha NWS
That's what I thought as well. And here I left Miami to get away from hurricanes.
1116. Patrap
wunderground Tornado page Link

Storm capable of producing a tornado
Tornado Vortex Signature (UEX_T1)
ID: T1
County: Thayer
Max: 64 dBZ
Top: 48,000 ft.
VIL: 88 kg/m%uFFFD
Chance of Severe Hail: 100%
Chance of Hail: 100%
Max Hail Size: 2.75 in.
Speed: 30 knots
Direction (from): SW (219)


Storm capable of producing a tornado
Tornado Vortex Signature (OAX_Z8)
ID: Z8
County: Cass
Max: 66 dBZ
Top: 44,000 ft.
VIL: 70 kg/m
Chance of Severe Hail: 100%
Chance of Hail: 100%
Max Hail Size: 2.75 in.
Speed: 27 knots
Direction (from): SSW (201)
G'night all. I'm nodding off halfway through posts, which is a genuine sight of time to go to bed . . . lol

See u guys in the a. m. . . .
Omaha. 0.5 elevation.
I remember gas at 35.9 cents when I was 4.

Incidentally, what happened to the cents symbol on keyboards? Another casualty of inflation I guess...
I hope nobody gets killed by those storms tonight!
1122. Patrap
TVS Noted
NEXRAD Radar
Omaha-Valley, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link
1106. Ugh, that's awful.

1109. You are so out-of-touch with the needs of the people. Good grief! Most folks are having a hard time buying gas to go to work (with their second jobs) to buy food. Conserve? Hell, they don't have anything to conserve!

Rant over. Out! LOL


Near Lincoln, Nebraska
1125. Patrap
Incredible tops to 72,000 ft

NEXRAD Radar
Omaha-Valley, Echo Tops Range 124 NMILink
hey jfv
Lets get out there and save some lives people!
1128. Patrap
Only those Big uns get to 70K plus.

The Finger of God may Lay on the Plains tonight.sadly..or is now.
1109, I have to disagree. There are other ways. Our biggest problem in the US is that we have all been raised on the notion that bigger is better and the more you have, the better you are. If you ask me, I think we should do without all the other luxuries in life. Think about it this way. How do you get to work each day? I drive. My work happens to be about 7 minutes from me and that's taking the Interstate. I can't move closer to my work here because the price of real estate and rentals down here are just too high. I got lucky to find what I did for the price I'm paying. In my opinion, driving and owning a vehicle, whether it be a car, truck or motorcycle isn't so much of a luxury anymore. People don't ride horses to work like they used to. A vehicle has become more of a necessity. Granted, we can carpool, but there are times when carpooling isn't a feasible option for everyone. If that was the case for me, I'd carpool because it would greatly reduce the amount I pay to commute to and from work. Not everyone lives in a large city where public transit is an option either. So, conservation for me means other things than jacking up the price of oil an gas to outrageous rates and lining others pockets while mine continue to get thinner and thinner. Sorry to rant on that one, but it struck a bad nerve with me.
What is the record for the tallest thunderstorm?
1131. Patrap
StormChaser's Live Video Streams..Link
1129. A-M-E-N! Thank you.
not sure think 83,000 feet
1134. Patrap
The Omaha 1 Hour running total shows multiple TVS the past hour Link
I just fell down the stairs and broke my femur. I'm out.
Wow - go away for six months and the place devolves into chaos! MLC is right (as usual). Folks need to be able to get to work in order to make $$$ to buy gasoline. I hate to say it, but I'm not buying my usual pre-season cache - I can't afford it.
Well people should just live closer to where they work in general. We both live close to where we work. So much of our country is designed on the premise of cheap gas---the suburbs of Atlanta spread out 50 miles and the average commute there is 19 miles--and they wonder then why traffic is so bad and they have to spend os much on gas. Sorry, but I am a bit of an elitist here, and maybe more than a bit. The harsh truth is that bruisingly high gas prices are here to stay---the demand from China and India as more and more people there can afford cars means that this is so. The sooner people wake up and realize that the era of cheap energy and cheap commutes is over--and CHANGE their lifestyles accordingly the better off we all will be. I bike all the time for my errands, not because I can't afford to drive, but because it is good for me and the economy and the environment, and our security. That's why I support drilling in Alaska and off Florida. We are sending too much money to countries that work against us. But drilling is a stop gap measure. This country will have to change. And whining about high gas prices and not doing anything about it with individual personal choices is no solution.

1138. Patrap
I drove to Fla at night with a 4 cylinder for a round trip cost of $150 in fuel .Thats about a 1100 Mile round-trip.Beats Flying 3 on Southwest anyday.
Plus the ride was therapeutic.
A tax write off I figure.
LOL
Yeah, this Bill Maher? LMAO

Phew - cool off, StSimonsIslandGAGuy.

Unfortunately, some of us have to travel for our work. It's the nature of the service economy. If I have the choice of walking to work and earning X or driving 700 miles a week and earning 2X, the choice isn't really a choice, is it? Near my home in NW Fl, the economy doesn't support the average joe very well. Simply a fact of life - too many guys on pensions that can afford to work for less.

I'm lucky - I can afford it. I usually write my contracts to include mileage. However, that's the exception to the rule...
1136. Thank you. Not sure I agree with you (or would others) though! LOL
Well people who don't like what I said can then tell their alternative plans to deal with gas rising more and more each year as demand from China and India continues to rise. Not liking my comments won't change that reality.
Heya Pat - moved to MS yet? Hattiesburg isn't too bad a place to be. Sis may have sold the Lakeview property (finally) for pennies on the dollar. She's almost convinced her hubby that MS, AR or AL might not be a bad move...
Gas prices must be too high for ambulance services to run fast anymore. I am about to drive myself...
1109

I think we need to push more to require alternatives and get away from oil, which we should have done years ago. Your solution is only a band aid, and that is not what this country needs. You also don't have to drive 60 miles round trip to and from work. Being rich is fine, but try taking a look at things from the other side of the fence because that is where most of us are.

It is quite obvious you are in the top 1% when your outlook is the way it is.
- JFV, have a good sleep.

- Simon, first, Doc's blog is a weather blog and politics here "is and should be" considered off topic. And secondly, arguing fuel and energy policy is really a moot point because the largest element of that is in the value of the dollar. A discussion on economic policy would be more prudent before breaching the breadth of that topic. Of course, that brings a plethora of other sequential topics up, too. Not enough space here even in the Doctor's blog for that.

LOL, one can tell the tropics are slow at least. Prayers for those in the severe weather's path across the CONUS tonight.

Have a good sleep, all!
Sorry, but maybe if we spent less time passing stupid @$$ laws; our government and private sector could start working to get us all away from oil.
LOL, SJ! Precisely. I think we'd be much better off if Congress held session about once every 10 years! ;P
Im watching those storms myself in Nebraska, those cloud tops are gonna produce some nasty hail from the looks of it. And to think we are expecting the same weather here in the heartland in Kansas City tomorrow night. Hopefully no one is injured or worse in these storms.
1151. Patrap

1143. F1or1d1an 10:09 PM CDT on June 04, 2008


Nope.I live uptown Now,,near the Park off of Magazine.
But I spend a lot of time in Miss.
Love the Waveland Beaches and long Beach too.


Yeah, this was one quintessential effort by our Congress! LOL, pathetic!
Sorry, gang! Swore I wasn't going to "partake" of these mindless, fruitless discussions. (I just lapse now and again!) Beg your pardon, plz! TIA
Those storms look so ugly---this will be the worst tornado year since 1974 I am afraid.
1153.
Ditto

lol...


Yeah..conserve.

Think of how much money you would be saving when your fat ass doesnt eat McDonalds everyday.
Or your too lazy and avoid getting a parking spot further down in the lot and instead drive around for 10 minutes to find a close spot to the entrance to McDonalds. Why not drive-thru? Cause its family night out.

3/4 of Americans are fat. Avoid the junkfood and that more than makes up for the rising gas prices...
There's a storm brewing here toniht...hubby turned 50 and he thinks we blew him off...

All friends from out of state are flying in on Friday.

Hurricane something or other going to happen...

Woo hoooooooo
Avoid the junkfood and that more than makes up for the rising gas prices...

Beg to differ, unfortunately, to feed a family of four at McD's is a lot cheaper then buying the good stuff at the grocery store and cooking.

Four decent chicken breasts are about $8 alone. Not to mention stuff to serve with them.

Not that we shouldn't all eat healthy...
Evening mel :~)

That is too funny!!!
oh SJ...the storm is going to hit on Friday night when hubby is coming home from work and gets a call saying my sons car has been towed from Walmart.

Let me just say - everyone hunker down. it will be bad till he gets home - bless my kid for taking the heat.

How's by you and can you tell me about sailing currents up there? I have a regatta in Charleston soon...
Storm reports are like homes destroyed, one all but fondation is gone. There is a barn gone & 4 1/4 inch hail. The back of a spotter's truck was lifted off the ground.
1162. Patrap
Bad stuff in the Plains.
Thanx for the Link Skyepony
Charleston Race Week?

Talk to presslord, he can help you with the sailing info
1164. Patrap
wunderground Tornado page Link

Storm capable of producing a tornado
Tornado Vortex Signature (UEX_A3)
ID: A3
County: Webster
Max: 66 dBZ
Top: 34,000 ft.
VIL: 53 kg/m²
Chance of Severe Hail: 100%
Chance of Hail: 100%
Max Hail Size: 2.75 in.
Speed: 29 knots
Direction (from): SW (219)
well i hate to be the bearer of bad news but itll get worse before it gets better, baby boomers getting older which will drive the cost of health care, insurance etc higher and higher, corporate greed outsourcing jobs for cheap labor, an inept government which is more concerned over which MLB baseball players are taking drugs rather than the millions of homeless and unemployed persons( see corporate greed, housholds who no longer can afford to really do much of anything but work and heaven forbid one of them gets sick, millions here where i live and all over the gulf coast who cannot even get insurance for their homes anymore becaus ethe insurance companies will not write them policies, yeah things are just great my rant for the day
Fastfood is cheaper in the short run...

But stock up at BJ's or Costco and cook the food at home.

Have the wife or girlfriend cook it.
You think the pots and pans are mine?? No woman, their yours...

Really, its the low income that eat fastfood, consistently.

Its all about the demographic of the people. Here in south florida where its more important to have a great body and a show off car, people get used to it.
I'm off my soapbox now.... LOL. One last thing... I'm glad I'm NOT in the elite 1% and am damn proud that I HAVE to get up EVERY day to work for a living.

"You'll pry the steering wheel to my gas-guzzling pick-up truck from my cold, dead hands..." -- fire831rescue
very cool - is he around tonight or already gone? I heard the current is worse than where we are and I won't put my boat in if that's so.

(is he a sailor or a motor guy...we could use someone to help us)

You're up that way, correct?
How many chicken breasts can I but at once at Costco whirl?

I do hear you though; but 6969 is right. Not to mention I should not have to save to buy gas; I just shouldn't have to buy gas at all. Our engineers and research folks are smart enough to get us away from oil. It is all a matter of will power!
1170. Patrap
Long Track Tornadic Cell in Nebraska

Yep mel, press and I are both in Charleston.

Is it Race Week you are coming to?
go to peakoil dot com if you're cool. talk to them folks about the economy and oil...
hold on SJ - let me look up the dates...lightnigh regatta
Carolina Yacht Club Charleston SC
That is one mean looking cell in post 1170
Did the race in SC last month and got our but kicked and not doing ocean racing but SC looks rather safe with the current and also Beaufort seems to be in protected area. Last race (see photo) was tampa bay - heavy winds, gusts that made me cry...that is not what sailing is about.
Anyone else notice that dmax is helping out the wave at 10N, 44W? It has a couple small towers now. Still unimpressive, though -- if anything, the circulation looks weaker than it did this morning; it's resembling Karen from last year. Meh, we'll see if it's got anything left in it tomorrow.
ARE THERE ANY REPORTS OF TORNADOS ON THE GROUND IN NEBRASKA TONIGHT ?
1181. JLPR
Well all of you meteorologists wanna be come and join the fun =P Enter the 2008 Hurricane contest =). Even if you don't know a lot about weather come and join, the contest is just for fun! So pass by blog and drop your predictions and I will gladly add them =).

And to the ones that already joined, thank you =),
JLPR
Well--the elite are as divided as anyone else. I know that personally ;-) Since there's no constant hereditary elite class. But on another note, the weather channel says on its website that there is potential for a severe weather outbreak tomorrow. I don't doubt that--but what about what is happening now?
1183. JLPR
wow hello? echo echo echo
where did everyone go? =P
I was wondering if there was a block on the blog---or else so many people have power out from the storms up north that they can't post!
1185. JLPR
umm that last one seems very possible
I am still here in and out is anyone else here
It looks like a cable was cut or something.
Good lord JF. But I do see some blogs hopping with activity though.
That is an interesting link JF--thanks!
Looks like something in DC.
Yea something is up. Ill try and find out what, perhaps they they were doing some work or something. Its strange however to see such a widespread problem as has appeared to have occurred in the US.
so what is the problem this morning ?
1194. JLPR
umm interesting
my internet is local so I don't get affected but its boring if no one is around =)
guys i think florida broke off from the rest of the nation NOW WE ARE A ISLAND
Perhaps it was Kansas city.
1197. JLPR
JUSTCOASTING lol why?
seems like most of left on here are from florida lol
Whatever it was appears to be fixed. - cept MCI they seem to be having probs.
jflorida what made you think something was up ?
Had a glitch and then Ive never seen availability like this . There seems to be some type of latency bottleneck in the DC area with other providers. MCI looks to have lost a major portal.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:30 AM IST June 5 2008

-----------------------------------------

Subject: DEPRESSION (ARB01-2008) over east central Arabian Sea

At 8:30 AM IST, Yesterday's Low Pressure Area over east central Arabian Sea concentrate into a depression and lays centered as of 5:30am IST at 15.5N 66.0E or 800 kms southwest of Mumbai, India. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction.

Broken intense to very intense convective clouds are seen over Arabian Sea between 9.0N - 18.5N and 55.5E - 66.0N

1203. JLPR
got very quiet again but I guess thats because its 2:30AM =P
Good morning, JLPR :) Everyone in bed already? Looks like even the Europeans are still in bed, 7:41 or 8:41 local time. 9:41 am here in Eastern Europe. I'm going to have breakfast in a minute.
I just read through the last 2 pages. Looks like it has been a nasty night in Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois. I've watched the vid from a surveillance camera in Parkersburg. Tornadoes are scary stuff.

Ok, sis calls me to breakfast. See you later
I've watched the vid from a surveillance camera in Parkersburg. Tornadoes are scary stuff.

--
ya I saw that on the local news and the world news (inside the bank video)

The house being torn apart was a little harder to see.
1206. JLPR2
almost everyone went to bed early apparently =P
and Good morning to you too taistelutipu =)
1205. We also have tornadoes in Finland but they are quite rare and quite weak, mostly F0 and F1. The strongest was rated a F3 a couple of years ago when it went through a golf resort. Finland is sparsely populated so normally tornadoes happen in the forests and days later the typical damage is found there.
I should go and check out the annual tornado records now that my curiosity is piqued.

1206. I'm outta here now, going shopping. Nighty night you and everyone on the other side of the ocean =)
1208. JLPR
I couldn't sleep and I decided to check how the catl wave looked like before trying to sleep again and look!! lol The first strong convection it has had since it left Africa but obviously it is nowhere close to the necessary to get going and actually develop =P.
India Meteorological Agency
Special Tropical Cyclone Advisory
11:30 AM IST June 5, 2008

---------------------------------------
At 8:30 AM IST, Morning's Depression over east central Arabian Sea has moved northerly and lays centered at 16.0N 66.0E or 800 kms southwest of Mumbai, India. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction.

Maximum sustained winds is 25-30 knots with the lowest sea level pressure near the center of 1000 hPa.

Sea conditions is rough to very rough around the system center. Recent satellite imagery shows deep convective clouds are seen over Arabian Sea between 10.0N - 19.0N and 56.0E - 66.5N

Available buoy and satellite observations indicat strong low level westerly flow on the equatorward side of the system. Which is helping in the intensification of the system. Strong westward diffluence at the upper troposphere is also helping the convection development. The system lies in a region of moderate easterly vertical wind shear on the equatorward side of an upper level ridge roughly running along 21.0N. The system has tracked steadily poleward towards the region of low vertical wind shear.



Current NRL infrared satellite radar on 02A.NONAME
1202. HadesGodWyvern 2:06 AM EDT on June 05, 2008

Also 1209.

Hey, HGW, isn't this about the third invest for the Arabian Sea in the last 10 days or so? This one looks quite healthy, too. It would be very interesting to get a second high-profile storm making landfall on the Arabian peninsula . . .
Not much in the Atlantic. Have a good day. FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
1212. guygee
Western Trough vs. Southern Mid/Upper Ridge.



The western CONUS trough has flattened out the western side of the Baja/Mex/GOM/SE-CONUS Mid/upper ridge and supressed it south for now, but has actually helped to pump up the eastern part of the ridge. That ridge is blocking deep tropical moisture from reaching north into the GOM and towards FL. from the E. Pac. and the W. Caribbean. I've collected a few local AFDs below discussing the expected future evolution of the ridge from NWS forecasters from the GOM and FL regions, below.
----------------------
NWS Local AFDs:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
AFDMLB
YTDY
:
TONIGHT...CAPE 15Z SOUNDING SHOWS WARMING CONTINUES IN THE MID LVLS...MOST PRONOUNCED ABOVE 600 MBS...WITH H5 TEMPS AROUND -6 C.
[...]
THU...HAVE CONTINUED PREV FORECAST TREND WITH DEVELOPING DEEP EASTERLIES AND CONTINUED MID LVL DRYING. H5 TEMPS A PROGD TO WARM TO AROUND -5 DEGS C BY LATE AFTN NOT TOO CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP CONVECTION.
[...]
THURS NIGHT-SAT...CENTER OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES FRI INTO SAT WITH ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. LATEST GFS DECREASING POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH A TRANSPORT OF LOWER PW VALUES INTO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING SOME SLIGHT WAA AROUND 700 MB INCREASING STABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
[...]
SUN-WED (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...STILL STRUGGLING TO GET A CLEAR SIGNAL OF THE START OF THE WET SEASON AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE. LATEST RUN OF GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOW PWATS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS DOES THE ECMWF... MAYBE EVEN GETTING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF A TUTT AXIS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE 25-30 POP IN FOR TUESDAY SINCE SOME RUN TO RUN CHANGES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING BUT IF DRIER TREND HOLDS THROUGH LATER RUNS MAY HAVE TO NUDGE EXTENDED POPS DOWN.

TDY:
TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD DRIFT NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS NORTHWARD MIGRATION WILL ALLOW SE-ESE FLOW TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE PENINSULA AND EVENING CAPE SOUNDING INDICATING MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND H5 TEMP HAD WARMED TO -5.7C.
[...]
FRI-SUN...DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S./MID ATLC STATES AND UNSEASONABLY LOW PWAT VALUES WILL KEEP EAST CENTRAL FL MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
[...]
MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC CONTINUES TO KEEP A GRASP ON THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST U.S./MID ATLC COASTAL STATES. PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW IS MAINTAINED.

&&
---------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
AFDMOB
YTDY
:
SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINED CLEARLY EVIDENT ON 00Z SOUNDINGS...AND AS THE RIDGING BECOMES EVEN STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...
[...]
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO WEAKEN THE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS MUCH AS INDICATED YESTERDAY...LEADING TO A DRIER FORECAST INITIALLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MARKED EVIDENCE OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH BECOMES LESS NOTICEABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROF IN THE EASTERLIES WEAKENS THE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF.

TDY:
SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH RIDGE AXIS THEN EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
[...]
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)...THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
[...]
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST COMING UNDER THE MORE FAVORABLE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
-------------------------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
AFDLIX
YTDY
:
.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY PROVIDING ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP US DRY AND VERY WARM.
&&
LONG TERM... WILL FOLLOW THE GFS MODEL FOR GUIDANCE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY NEXT THURSDAY. THUS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL CAP AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WEAKEN.
TDY:
.SHORT TERM...THE MID/UPPER HIGH WILL DISPLACE EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY AS A POTENT UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. SIGNS OF SUBTLE CHANGE ARE EVIDENT ALREADY AS AN EXAMINATION OF OUR EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO 600 MB....THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE MID/UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

.LONG TERM...
THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER RIDGE...WHICH WILL BE COVERING A LARGE PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY SATURDAY...WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY NEAR THE GULF COAST ON SUNDAY....THE MAIN PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF STARTING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE 8 TO 10 DAY PERIODS AS THE LARGE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD STEER DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH GULF COAST REGION BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
-------------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
AFDHGX
YTDY
:
[...]
THE LARGE AND POTENT UPPER RIDGE FROM FL-TX-BAJA WILL SHIFT EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO CO/WY THURSDAY...THEN AS AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST IN MN FRI THE WINDS SHOULD RELAX AS UPPER RIDGE NOSES BACK INTO SETX FROM THE EAST CONTINUING THE HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER. BUT...AND THIS MAY BE A LARGE BUT...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NW FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE TAPPING INTO SOME RICHER MOISTURE...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A TUTT TO SWING ACROSS FL AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF MONDAY THEN THEIR FORECASTS DIVERGE QUICKLY WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE FEATURE WEST WITH THE ATTENDANT MOISTURE VS THE ECMWF WHICH IS WEAKER AND TURNS IT SHARPLY NORTH INTO MS/AL. ATTM AM FAVORING THE GFS AND HAVE BROAD BRUSHED IN 20 POPS TUE AND WED.

TDY:
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM OF THE DAY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MODELS PUSH THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY. THE GFS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE IN ITS HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AND TEMPERED IT ONLY WITH A BIT OF PERSISTENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE GRID FIELD.
[...]
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT DOES...THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS FORECAST TO COOL AS SEEN ON THE GFS 700 MB FORECAST....THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER BOTH HAVE A WEAKNESS OVER SE TX DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

1213. Drakoen
quyqee do you have a link for that water vapor imagery?
1214. GASNA
Hola, aqui les presento mis predicciones para esta temporada de huracanes 2008 para el atlantico y el caribe: 21 tormentas con nombre, 12 de estas alcanzaran categoria de huracan y de estos 5 seran de categoria 3 o mas.

Estas predicciones estan basadas en las observaciones de las masas de nubes que se estan formando tanto en el caribe como en las costas de africa, parecidas a la temporada del 2005 y las temperaturas en la cuenca del atlantico.
1215. guygee
Re:1213. Drakoen 11:34 AM GMT on June 05, 2008

Drak - It is
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html

Choose N. Hemisphere in the left-hand frame. The 24hr loop is great, but you only get a complete mosaic like in the image above about twice every 24 hours or so.
-guygee
Good morning all! Just took a look at the Central Atlantic wave/low and this is the best it has looked on satellite imagery since leaving Africa.
Good morning everyone...
1218. Drakoen
1215. guygee 11:45 AM GMT on June 05, 2008
Re:1213. Drakoen 11:34 AM GMT on June 05, 2008

Drak - It is
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html

Choose N. Hemisphere in the left-hand frame. The 24hr loop is great, but you only get a complete mosaic like in the image above about twice every 24 hours or so.



Thanks!
Good morning bloggers! Looks like some more severe weather for the central part of the country. Cchs, that CATL wave is the first thing I noticed when I looked at satellite this morning, looks like it could survice into the Caribbean's warmer waters.
1220. pottery
Good morning.
Good Morning Folks.......That "little" wave looks pretty wimpy (to me), and, is in a pretty dry enviornment.......Don't think it will develop into anything and think it is too early for significant development in June......Approximately 60 waves emerge off Africa during H-Season, very few survive the "rough" Atlantic crossing intact, and, climatology suggests that the best chances of survival, and growth into tropical depression and storm status, occurs in August and September....Just too early for this one....
Deleted
1224. pottery
CCHS, Re: the wave in central atl. Is there not too much dry air to the north and west of it, to allow it to maintain itself??,
CCHS that atlantic wave/low still does not look very impressive and it is still in the dry air and even if it does get past it then it has to deal with strong windsheer.

1226. Drakoen
The Central Atlantic wave is still hanging on to low level cyclonic turning which is helping it draw up moisture from the ITCZ. The conditions in the Caribbean are unfavorable with fast moving upper level westerlies from a upper level trough over Cuba.
Morning everyone.... I was thinking that wave in the Cent Atl looks to be moistening the atmosphere and trying to create its own environment.
1224. pottery 6:05 AM CST on June 05, 2008
CCHS, Re: the wave in central atl. Is there not too much dry air to the north and west of it, to allow it to maintain itself??,


Hey Pottery......Once the waves really get going later in the season, they tend to "moisten" the way for the ones that follow; assuming that the SST's are warm, you still need a confluence of the other factors (low shear, moist environment, low dust) and you start to see this in July/August as the ITCZ appears to "lift" into the MDR (you see nice line of moisture from Africa all the way to the Lesser Antilles).......
1221. weathermanwannabe 7:02 AM CDT on June 05, 2008

It's made it this far. Nothing about this year has been normal so far so I don't look at past history normal patterns when looking at this wave this year. I'll just keep watching with cchs.

1230. pottery
Thats true, Wannabe. Lots of dust and dry air around now. If that keeps up, expect a year similiar to 2007 in the Trop. Atlantic.
1229. 69Viking 6:13 AM CST on June 05, 2008 We will all be watching but I think that there is no basis for making the statement that Nothing about this year has been normal so far ......Looks to me like everything is pretty normal in the tropics right now for this time of the year......
Other then the CATL nothing really to talk about anyways. I saw the ugly political conversation the bloggers had last night, let's not go down that path. MLC put them straight I think. I think we'll be talking about the severe storms in the center of the country today.
1231. weathermanwannabe 7:16 AM CDT on June 05, 2008

We had a May Tropical Storm, how is that normal? Check the 84-88 degree water off of Apalachicola in early June, how is that normal? I've lived on the Gulfcoast since 92 and never seen water warm up this fast.
1232. 69Viking 6:18 AM CST on June 05, 2008 Agree; I'm more concerned about the severe weather threat to CONUS today......
Just to let everyone know, I'll most likely be stopping in from time to time today. If you have any questions for me, just message me and I'll get back with you.
1236. guygee
RE: 1226. Drakoen 12:06 PM GMT on June 05, 2008

Agreed, conditions ahead look unfavorable as the wave approaches the E. Caribbean. Another system potentially producing shear is the wave to the west that is now totally inland over S.A. and has slowed its westward motion considerably. The CATL wave looks like it will outpace the protective steering high currently to its north and run into a traffic jam of larger systems that will drive shear over it and make development unlikely.

Still interesting to watch!
1239. Drakoen
I think Dr. Lyons is the only sane one there lol. The anchors get so dramatic.
Good morning all....well nothing in tropics really. That wave will encounter unfavorable conditions in 3-5 days time in the ECARIB. Development really unlikely.
If this continues this year, we are in for an even more interesting cape verde season.
1243. DocBen
What's that thing just north of Dominican Republic?
1244. franck
Drakoen...Dr Lyons will become dramatic as well.
It is the nature of show bidness.
Good morning everyone,

well, it appears nothing to really talk about today? I guess that means I should get some work done around here! LOL

Have a wonderful Thursday everyone!

Gams
1246. NEwxguy
Theres not much of a future for the catl spin,but I'm impressed that it has done so well for this time of the year,wonder if it's a hint at what lies ahead.
Good morning gamma, don't work too hard. It's quiet but keep an eye on the central U.S. today, big storms this afternoon, not good again.
1249. fmbill
One thing i noticed about the CATL wave, it seemed to disappear yesterday durint DMIN, but really fired up last night during DMAX.
1250. NEwxguy
In reference to the midwest,it does look like its going to be very bad,the atmosphere is all primed,just needs a trigger and looks like a dry line is going to set it off this afternoon.
1251. fmbill
TheWeatherMan504...just goes to show that hurricanes don't just bring storng winds, they also bring out the idiots!!!

"I'm standing in 100mph winds to prove to everyone I'm an idiot."

That is no help to emergency managers at all.

1252. OUSHAWN
Looks like the BOC is slowly but surely adding a bit more moisture. If this trend continues then maybe something can get going down there in the next few days. Still looks like we may be getting very close to a new invest in the EPAC by the looks of the latest satellite.
1251. fmbill 1:43 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
TheWeatherMan504...just goes to show that hurricanes don't just bring storng winds, they also bring out the idiots!!!

"I'm standing in 100mph winds to prove to everyone I'm an idiot."

That is no help to emergency managers at all.


some of them are like mike sidel but its fun to go out in the hurricanes and doing coverage.
1254. guygee
1243. DocBen 1:16 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
What's that thing just north of Dominican Republic?

SSD Tropical Atlantic - Water Vapor Loop

Looks like a ULL dropping south at the head of a TUTT extending back into the GOM undercutting the mid/upper SE-CONUS high, and also reflecting down to the surface according to the NWS TPC. It is combining with an ULH directly to its east to create upper level diffluence w/ associated showers and tstorms.

Also, the wave to the west of the CATL wave has not really slowed, it is just getting sheared under upper westerlies, and is extrapolated west.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2008
[...]
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 18N IS MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE PRESENTATION ON MIMIC-TPW IS VERY GOOD WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10N. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 43W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE BEING MASKED BY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SO WAVE HAS BEEN LARGELY EXTRAPOLATED WESTWARD. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRY UPPER AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND ACROSS SW VENEZUELA AND SIMILAR CONVECTION ACROSS W VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA.
[...]
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WELL INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND S TEXAS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SMALL UPPER TROUGH IS UNDERCUTTING THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR 22N94W.
[...]
ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING E OF BERMUDA SW ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM 25N71W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N57W TO BEYOND 32N52W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 64W-74W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO AIDING IN SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY AND EXTENDS FROM 27N61W 22N64W.
1255. CJ5
The wave at 45/10 continues to poke along. It appears shear may dismantle it but it came back last night and built more convection. It has continued to battle through the dry air too. It is something to keep watching.
1256. guygee
Actually the small GOM trough and the WATL trough seem to be somewhat separate systems.
1257. DocBen
1250. NEwxguy 1:40 PM GMT on June 05, 2008
In reference to the midwest,

Yea; we are being advised to keep close to radios. It was muggy and windy when I picked the paper this morning - before sunrise. I'm guessing that we won't get it here in Wichita until fairly late tonight - maybe after midnight - when the dry line gets here. Sometimes those are even worse since we can't see them in the dark.

Kansas - where Twister isn't just a party game
1258. Greyelf
Whew. It was a wild one here last night. I live in the Omaha, Nebraska area. I see from posts from last night that you guys noticed we had a bit of severe weather here. I was definitely scared when I saw the wind velocities graphic on our local station showing a large red circle surrounded by green like a donut just to the west of where I live and it was supposed to be moving east. When I went outside and looked up, scud clouds were moving northwest, middle clouds were moving northeast, and the highest clouds were moving east. "Eek" was the feeling to say the least. Then I go back to see news reports of baseball and golfball sized hail. Some of you may recall back in February, I picked up a pretty convertible in Ohio that I had purchased on Ebay. So, now I'm worried about my pretty convertible as I don't have a garage. Lightning was pretty much non-stop. Then the sun went down and I couldn't watch clouds anymore except through lightning flashes. Triple scared now. Fortunately, the storm bowed out and we only ended up with about 40-50 mph winds and pea-sized hail for a short time. We really dodged it. The hail split around here - one part went about 10 miles north and the other went 10 miles south. Whew!

Will have to worry about today again though. In the "high risk" category again today. I hope I don't have another night like last night.
Morning folks! Guygee, if you're still in here, great to see you again! Doc, grayelf, I feel for you guys in the midwest; I grew up in Missouri, so you know I feel your pain...I'm in Fort Worth now, so we get a fair bit of the nasties here too. Keep eyes open, guys!
1260. guygee
Hey Floodman! I was going back through some old posts from last year, and wondering where ya' been. Good to see you!
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051125
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS TEMPORARILY POSTPONED UNTIL DR. MASTERS RETURNS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
1263. guygee
Floodman, a couple of "non-weather" related questions to satisfy my curiosity. Your opinion:

Grateful Dead May 26 1973 Kezar Stadium...Greatest ever? Top Ten? ...or overrrated? Also, how about the Eyes->China Doll from that concert?

Bobby Post 2005 Thanksgiving Day massacre-Still friends? LOL!
1265. guygee
Apologies for the attempt at non-weather chat. Didn't mean to put anyone on the spot. IMHO, I love the gd73-05-26, one of my favorites but not everyone's.

Jerry would have never pulled that 2005 Thanksgiving Internet Archives rip on the fans in a million years...Phil was against it too.

Weather mode back ON.
Guygee

Oh, I've been here and there, up and down, and occasionally sideways...great to see you! How have you been? Ready for tropical activity?
1267. sky1989
I'm new here. I was just wondering though, that even though it is only June, is it possible that the tropical wave at around 45W could be moistening the environment to make it more favorable for the following tropical waves to develop?
1263. guygee

I'll have to listen to it again; I have all the bootlegs...if memory serves, I think that version is one of my faves...by the way, have you been to Wolfgangs Vault?

The archived concerts are incredible; they have a little of everything, including the Dead, New Years Eve '68 at Winterland

1269. guygee
Floodman - Got some work to do on my eaves, need to get going on that, a couple of rotted spots need torn out and replaced. A 2-3 day job, but I need to stop procrastinating.

Otherwise, the hatches are ready for battening.
Welcome, sky1989!

Anything that pulls moisture in around itself will help ease passage of the following disturbances; as for it being early, don't be surprised at a number of TS before the headlining acts appear...we've had Arthur, don;t be surprised at Bertha and Cristobal or so before the big storms start to pop
1269. guygee

We finally moved out of Hurricane alley (moved from Mandeville LA to Fort Worth TX); not too bad on the battening down activities here...our problem is the occasional tornado LOL
Refersh my memory, Guygee...where are you located?
1273. sky1989
Thanks very much Floodman! I appreciate any input.
Sky

Tropical waves generally move on taking the moisture with them, so I rather doubt that it has any affect on the following waves. Most of the moisture for the tropical waves come from the ITCZ
1275. guygee
1272. Floodman 3:14 PM GMT on June 05, 2008

ECFL, Barrier Island just south of Cocoa Beach FL.
1273. sky1989

No worries, sky! As I am wont to remind folks, though, I am but an egg...if you read chess' response, he makes a very good point aas well; the waves tend to pick up their moisture from the ITCZ; low activity in the ITCZ will not help a wave out much. Another thing to think about is the MJO, which is supposed to be waning a bit over the next couple of weeks
1277. sky1989
I've been watching and I have to agree with you chess. It seems as the wave moves west it is not leaving the environment behind it much more moist. But, once the wave reaches the Western Carribbean, if it survives, I wonder if the environment there would become more favorable to allow development?
1278. GBlet
Good morning everyone, especially grey and doc. I am in great bend just waiting to see where it pops first! I really don't like sitting in the middle of the bullseye. Nobody likes supercells at nite that's for sure. I'm even more worried about next week while I'm in Vegas. Hope my house will still be here when I get back.
1275. guygee

That's right! One of my fovorite places on the planet...I used to vacation in Melbourne Beach occasionally. Did you have any problems with the fires?
1280. guygee
Good talking to you again Floodman. I'm sure I'll see you around. Need to make a store run up the block (store is on A1A), then get a few chores done. Thanks for the Vault link, I'll leave you with a couple of my favorites.
bt.etree.org
Trader's Den
dimeadozen
BBL
1281. guygee
1279. Floodman

Fires were all inland around Palm Bay, it was a crazy windy day, over 150+ houses damaged or destroyed.. but there is not much to burn where I live except right on the dunes, and just a little bit there...mostly condos now.

Later!
Found a piece of software for us tropical weather nuts... Best part is it's FREE for the 2008 season. Link for the download site is: Link It includes free updates as well. May be worth checking out. I downloaded it and I'm going to try it to see what features it has.
Found a piece of software for us tropical weather nuts... Best part is it's FREE for the 2008 season. Link for the download site is: Link It includes free updates as well. May be worth checking out. I downloaded it and I'm going to try it to see what features it has.

Looks pretty cool. Lets hope we won't have to use it to much this season.
Thanks fire i was looking at buying this one last year but decided for eots so i will try both this yr.
Thanks fire i was looking at buying this one last year but decided for eots so i will try both this yr.

I use EOTS. It is not a bad program, especially for those who aren't tech savvy. Looks like GT7 has a lot more features than EOTS.
1281. guygee

Right on the dunes? Have you thought about having a house guest? I can cook!
One thing is it appears some of the updates are missing. You just have to refuse the missing ones to cotinue with the other updates. And be warned the updates are quite large and total update time may be about 10-15 minutes due to size. Other than that, it appears to be a decent setup.
Great link, fire! Thanks!
Ya'll are all welcome for the link. What appears to have happened is they are doing some sort of BETA test on the software this year and will charge for next year's version. Can't beat it for a free piece of software, though.
1290. condesa
Floodman-
Were you at Winterland New Year's '68?
Thanks fire. Terrific find. Now I can use this software to create tracks for my webiste.
1290. condesa

I'm old, but I was 8 in 1968...I'd have loved to have been there, though. I have the t-shirt, does that count? LOL

Have you noticed the number of Deadheads in here? Seems old hippies are drawn to weather...
Morning all :~)

I see all is very quite in the Atl. Models seem to be quite as well.

cchs, make sure you look in to the legalities of that. Some user agreements prevent redistribution of any images created with their software. Example being HurrTrak. I looked at trying to do some similar stuff with this software, but after reading the user agreement, they make it clear that you may not redistribute any images created with this software. Not to mention financing a project like that would have been tough for me, to say the least!
New blog about the Jet Stream being further north. Yikes!
1295. condesa
The T shirt counts a lot.
Old hippies are natural ponderers-
I'm goin' for some Hendrix right now.
1296. condesa
Can anybody tell me more about the new invest in EPAC that DUSHAWN referenced?
Gracias.
Hey Fire..... That is one intense program!!! WOW.. Killer Thank you very much for the Link!!!!!!!!
1283. WPBHurricane05

I missed the link for the software, which post was it please if you don't mind?
Another PDS Tornado Watch issued for Central Kansas & Northwest Oklahoma...Link

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF CONCORDIA
KANSAS TO 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENID OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459...WW 460...WW 461...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL KS AND NORTHWEST OK DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL INTERACT WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND VERY
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. IF STORMS CAN MAINTAIN MORE DISCRETE
STRUCTURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...STRONG AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


(Here's the first one...Link)

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN IOWA
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1055 AM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 25 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DENISON IOWA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 458...WW 459...WW 460...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEB...SPREADING INTO WESTERN IA AND SOUTHEAST SD. STRONG
LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AND
PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL POSE A RISK OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
SPC released New Day 1 Outlook...increased chances for tornadoes for Southeast Nebraska to 30%... Link
First storms beginning to fire in Southwest/South Central Kansas now...Link
First tornado warnings of the afternoon have been issued for extreme Southeastern Colorado...Link
The SPC has just updated their Severe Weather Public Outlook for June 5th...Link