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A white Christmas will be a U.S. rarity in 2011; November the globe's 12th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:26 PM GMT on December 22, 2011

A white Christmas will be a rarity across most of the U.S. this year, as December temperatures have been more typical of November, and very little snow has fallen. Large portions of the eastern half of the country have been more than 4°F above average so far in December, with temperatures averaging 8°F above average over portions of North Dakota.This is quite a switch from the previous two winters, which were both much colder and snowier than average. All three winters featured La Niña conditions in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, so that cannot explain the difference. A key reason for the December warmth this year and the cold and snowy Decembers of 2010 and 2009 is a weather pattern known as the Arctic Oscillation.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average over the 30-day period ending on December 22, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.



Figure 2. Top: snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2011, after a month with a strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Bottom: Snow depth measured in the U.S. on December 22, 2010, after a month with a strong negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Image credit: NOAA/NOHRSC.

The Arctic Oscillation and its influence on winter weather
The Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. It is one of oldest known climate oscillations--seafaring Scandinavians described the pattern several centuries ago. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, the AO and NAO control the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive AO/NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild winter in the U.S. and Western Europe. Positive AO/NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative AO/NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America more readily. Negative AO/NAO winters tend to bring cold winters to Europe and the U.S. East Coast, but leads to very warm conditions in the Arctic, since all the cold air spilling out of the Arctic gets replaced by warm air flowing poleward. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extreme negative NAO and AO since record keeping began in 1865; a very extreme AO/NAO also developed during the winter of 2010 - 2011. But this year, the pattern has flipped. The AO has been almost as strong, but in the opposite sense--a positive AO, leading to very warm conditions over the U.S. Unfortunately, the AO is difficult to predict more than a week or two and advance, and we don't understand why the AO can vary so much from winter to winter. The latest predictions from the ECMWF and GFS models show this positive AO pattern continuing for at least the next ten days. Real winter conditions won't arrive in the U.S. until the first week of January, at the earliest. Between now and the end of 2011, the only major winter storm the GFS model expects in the U.S. will be in the Pacific Northwest, on December 30 - 31.

This week, NOAA's ClimateWatch Magazine posted an excellent tutorial on the Arctic Oscillation and how it is affecting our winter weather this year.



Figure 3. The departure of temperature from average in Centigrade during the November - December - January period during various phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Positive AO conditions lead to warm winters in the U.S., while negative AO conditions lead to cold winters. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

November 2011: Earth's 12th warmest on record
November 2011 was the globe's 12th warmest November on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). November 2011 global land temperatures were the 16th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere near average, the 20th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the November 2011 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 4. Departure of temperature from average for November 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

A warm November for the U.S.
In the contiguous U.S., November ranked as the 25th warmest November in the 117-year record. Thirteen states in the Northeast and Upper Midwest recorded a top-ten warmest November, and no states had a top-ten coldest November. Eight states had a top-ten wettest November--Indiana, Ohio, Missouri,Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. One state had a top-ten driest month, Minnesota. Texas had its 39th driest November on record, keeping 76% of Texas under extreme to exceptional drought as of December 13, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

A weak La Niña continues
A borderline weak/moderate La Niña event continues in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 1.0°C below average during the first half of December. The impacts of a La Niña on U.S. weather are well-defined. It is likely that the drought in the South, especially Texas, will continue, along with above average temperatures. The Northwest can expect cooler than average temperatures, as well as the potential for another winter with a heavy snowpack across the western United States.

Arctic sea ice extent third lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its third lowest on record in November, behind 2006 and 2010, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Sea ice records date back to 1979.

Donations sought for the East Africa famine
Weather Underground has partnered with the International Rescue Committee (IRC) to help the Horn of Africa region during the ongoing famine. With the help of the Weather Underground community, we hope to raise $10,000 that will go toward helping the refugees survive the crisis. Weather Underground will match the community's donation dollar-for-dollar up to $10,000 for a total donation of $20,000. Please visit the East Africa famine donation page to help out. Ninety cents of every dollar donated goes directly to the people in need.

Posts looking back at the remarkable weather events of 2011
Deadliest weather disaster of 2011: the East African drought
Tropical Storm Lee's flood in Binghamton: was global warming the final straw?
Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.
Hurricane Irene: New York City dodges a potential storm surge mega-disaster

This will be my last post until Tuesday. Have a great holiday, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Year is not over yet Grothar. Keeping everything crossed that nothing else happens. Sorry you had to send home your maids and butlers when the water went out X-Mas eve. I just enjoyed my can of Spaghettios and went to bed.


Don't keep everything crossed, Geoff. It could get uncomfortable. Besides, we do not have a butler. We have not had one for years.
Quoting Grothar:


It was a promise I made to the Doc. My New Year's resolution. Stay on topic and no more joking on the blog. Keep things serious. We will try and be more like you, the perfect gentleman.

Very good Plan.
I'm going to try to live up to your expectations of me.
Although I fear it can only end in tears.

:))

I'm off to bed, have a fantastic week you Fine Fellows.
Quoting pottery:
Greetings Taz, Geof, Gro !

Just checking in to make sure that y'all are behaving././..



am behaving.
Good evening to all!

Grothar, did Fort Lauderdale ever find water? ... I mean besides the Fountain of Youth.
Thane has developed an eye:

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


A for real LOL! Thanks Pat.


:)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Good evening to all!

Grothar, did Fort Lauderdale ever find water? ... I mean besides the Fountain of Youth.


The water was off to about 250,000 people. It was a mess. We were on a boil water all day yesterday. It wasn't a nice sight.
Going horizontal in a few minutes. Take care and see you all tomorrow.
Quoting Grothar:


The water was off to about 250,000 people. It was a mess. We were on a boil water all day yesterday. It wasn't a nice sight.


I have been without water, from a broken main, for a few short hours. I cannot imagine the sense of urgency and helplessness you probably felt when you had 22 guests to care for. What a nightmare that must have been! ... The one time you probably wished you could turn wine into water?
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
5:30 AM IST December 27 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm THANE Over Southeast Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Alert For North Tamil Nadu And South Andhra Pradesh Coast

At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestward and lays centered near 11.5N 87.5E, or about 800 km east southeast of Chennai, India.. 750 km northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka.. and 550 km west southwest of Port Blair, Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

The system is likely to move west northwestward, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during the next 24 hours and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by Friday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -85C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal from 8.0N to 15.0N east of 82.5E, over south Bay of Bengal. The poleward outflow is distinctly visible in the satellite imagery, which favors intensification. Ship observations (11.5N 92.7E) observed surface low pressure of 1007 hPa.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 994 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

6 HRS: 12.0N 87.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.0N 86.5E - 45-50 knot (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.8N 84.0E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.0N 81.5E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 27-28C over the region. It is relatively less towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast becoming 26-27C. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system. It is 50-80 kj/cm2 to the west and west northwest of system and less than 50 kj/cm2 near Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka. The Madden Jullian Ocillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 5 during next week. The phase 5 is favorable for intensification, as per our past studies. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0N and hence provides required poleward outflow for intensification of the system. The low level convergence increased during past 6 hours as well as upper level divergence. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA is low to moderate. However, it increases towards the coast of Sri Lanka, becoming 20-30 knots. Wind shear tendency around the system is negative of the order of 10-20 knots.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from India Meteorological Department will be issued at around 6:00 AM UTC..
The death toll from flash floods that swept away entire villages in the southern Philippines climbed to nearly 1,500 today, as authorities widened their search for bodies.

The Office of Civil defence's latest tally listed 891 dead in Cagayan de Oro and an additional 451 in nearby Iligan city. The rest came from several other provinces. Most of the dead are unidentified.

"The search will continue as long as we are recovering bodies," said Civil defence head Benito Ramos.

He said that decomposing remains were retrieved floating in the sea as far as 100 kilometers from the two cities where a Dec. 16 tropical storm unleashed more than a month's worth of rainfall in 12 hours, sending walls of water gushing into homes.

It was not clear how many more are missing.

More than 60,000 homeless from hundreds of flood-ravaged villages spent a miserable Christmas in jam-packed schools and gymnasiums, while the United Nations launched an urgent appeal for $28 million to help the displaced more than half the population of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan, which are in the southern Philippines' Mindanao region.

President Benigno Aquino III, who banned logging in February following previous flooding deaths that experts say were caused partly by deforestation and soil erosion, has ordered an investigation.

Communist guerrillas in the south, meanwhile, threatened to punish multinational companies they blame for environmental destruction.

Rebel spokesman Jorge Madlos told The Associated Press by telephone that they sought funds for victims from huge pineapple and banana plantations and other companies.

"Some were lukewarm to our call," Madlos said. "That'll be a factor when we decide which ones to punish first for this destruction."

Another factor in the staggering death toll was illegal settlements along Cagayan rivers. Thousands of people lived in shanties on the banks and islands directly along the water's path.

More here..
Quoting Grothar:


It was a promise I made to the Doc. My New Year's resolution. Stay on topic and no more joking on the blog. Keep things serious. We will try and be more like you, the perfect gentleman.
aren't new years resolutions made to be broken? (any bets on how long gro keeps this one?) hope everyone had a wonderful christmas--have a happy new years! ....back to lurking
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #33
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
2:00 PM CST December 27 2011
===================================

At 12:30 PM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (1000 hPa) located at 13.5S 132.9E or 95 km south of Jabiru and 445 km west southwest of Nhulunbuy has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south southeast at 1 knot.

Dvorak Intensity:

Ex-tropical Cyclone Grant is expected to begin moving towards the east during Wednesday and is likely to move over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Thursday, where it may redevelop into a tropical cyclone. The system is expected to move steadily east across the Gulf of Carpentaria during Thursday and Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later if the cyclone forms close to the coast.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Nhulunbuy to Numbalwar, including Groote Eylandt.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Quoting wildheron:
aren't new years resolutions made to be broken? (any bets on how long gro keeps this one?) hope everyone had a wonderful christmas--have a happy new years! ....back to lurking


Grothar is a really nice guy, never says anything out of the way unless he hasnt slept much lol. as for the resolution of no joking on the blog...Grothar, i will give you till May before you break that xD
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
2:00 PM WST December 27 2011
=========================

At midday WST a tropical low was located near 11S 092E and is moving slowly westward. The low is expected to move west of 090E, outside of the Western Region later on Wednesday. It is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone while in the Western Region

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Wednesday: Moderate
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
8:30 AM IST December 27 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm THANE Over Southeast Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Alert For North Tamil Nadu And South Andhra Pradesh Coast

At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lays centered near 12.0N 87.0E, about 750 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 750 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 600 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by Friday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal from 7.5N to 15.0N and 82.0E to 90.0E. A buoy observed at 12.4N 85.9E reports surface low pressure of 998 hPa.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with a central pressure of 994 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system center.
GOODNIGHT all
Humidity is really high in Macon this morning.

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #34
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER GRANT (04U)
5:00 PM CST December 27 2011
===================================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Low, Former Grant (999 hPa) located at 14.0S 133.6E or 95 km south of Jabiru and 445 km west southwest of Nhulunbuy has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southeast at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Ex-tropical Cyclone Grant is slowly moving towards the east and is likely to move over the Gulf of Carpentaria later on Wednesday night or early Thursday, where it may redevelop into a tropical cyclone. The system is expected to move steadily east across the Gulf of Carpentaria during Thursday and Friday.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales may develop later if the cyclone forms close to the coast.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding of low lying areas over the Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur Districts.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Nhulunbuy to Port Roper, including Groote Eylandt.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..




Chemical concerns over derailed train in Katherine, Northern Territory

A FREIGHT train that derailed north of Katherine, Northern Territory early this morning was carrying about 120 tonnes of copper concentrate, the operating company estimates.

Genessee & Wyoming managing director Bert Easthope says he doesn't know how much of the substance has spilt.

He also did not know what the environmental or health effects might be.

"We're actually doing a preliminary assessment (of the area)," he said.

He said they would do aerial sweeps of the scene and then send people in on the ground once it was safe.

"We will move as quickly as we can to remediate this in a timely manner, but we will not be putting anybody else at risk," Mr Easthope said.

The freight train derailed just north of Edith Falls River crossing about 5.30am.

The two drivers were eventually rescued after emergency crews' efforts were hampered by bad weather.

THE remnants of Cyclone Grant are now starting to threaten the Territory's east coast.

A Cyclone Watch has just been declared for a developing tropical low from Nhulunbuy to Numbalwar, including Groote Eylandt.

The weather bureau says that at 12:30 pm Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant was about 95km south of Jabiru and 445km west-southwest of Nhulunbuy - and was moving south southeast at 2km per hour.

It is expected to begin moving towards the east on Wednesday and is likely to move over the Gulf of Carpentaria on Thursday, where it may redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

It is system is expected to move steadily east across the Gulf of Carpentaria towards Queensland on Thursday and Friday.

THE latest update from NT Police Northern Commander David Proctor:

SEVEN people in five cars stranded on a stretch of the Stuart Highway that's cut off by the flooded Edith River to the south, and the Cullen River to the north.

NINE people, including four children, stranded on the roofs of two houses inundated by floodwaters on Edith Farms Rd.

EMERGENCY services going through options to recover those stranded _ but the Katherine helicopter they used to rescue two train drivers has now been grounded due to bad weather.

THE ROAD bridge at Edith River Crossing has reportedly been damaged by carriages from the derailed freight train that were washed away by raging floodwaters. The train tracks have also been badly damaged. Government inspectors will need to inspect the bridge once the spot is accessible.

SEVERAL Top End river crossings flooded overnight could remain closed for nearly two days, authorities warn.

Falling river levels today have revealed severe damage to the Edith River Bridge northbound.

Experts say the new bridge would need repairs before people could cross.

The only hope is now that the southbound bridge which is still under water has no damage and is passable.

The north and southbound bridges at the Cullen River crossing are also still under water.

And the Fergusson River crossing remains flooded.

Police said they would not reopen any crossing until the Edith River is passable.

Katherine is not on flood warning as the system affected is in the Fergusson catchment which feeds into the Daly River. A minor flood warning exists for Gorge Rd.

THE scene of the train derailment just north of Katherine has been described as one of "devastation''.

Katherine MLA Willem Westra van Holthe arrived at the scene about two hours after the derailment and said there was a huge amount of water coursing through.

"The whole scene is quite shocking,'' he said.

"I've lived in the Territory for 27 years and I've never seen anything like it.

"It was quite apparent ... that the train had gone off its rails and a number of containers had floated downstream and lodged up against the road bridge.''

Mr Westra van Holthe said he could not tell if the road bridge had been damaged, but said an engineer could be needed to clear the bridge for safety before reopening it.

He said the damage to the tracks and Stuart Highway was revealed when the water later began dropping.

"There are sheets of bitumen that have lifted and totally gone,'' Mr Westra van Holthe said.

"There's also an enormous amount of damage to the train track itself.''

The freight train, carrying iron ore, derailed just north of Edith Falls River crossing about 5.30am.

PASSENGERS travelling north on the Ghan are stuck in Katherine after a freight train derailed earlier this morning.

Great Southern Rail spokeswoman Jessica Playford confirmed the Ghan, which was travelling with just under 200 guests, was supposed to get into Darwin later tonight.

She says the train is now in the middle of its scheduled break in Katherine, so the guests' timetable hasn't yet been officially disrupted.

Ms Playford says it is hoped they will get the passengers into Darwin by coach tonight.

"Depending on what happens with the track and the roads - hopefully the roads will be open later today,'' she said.

Eyewitnesses at the scene of the iron ore train derailment - just north of Edith Falls River crossing _ say the track has been badly damaged.

There are also reports that some of the train's carriages were washed by the flood waters into the car bridge down stream, and damaged that.

Ms Playford said there were already coaches organised to take the passengers from Katherine to Darwin.

The Ghan is also scheduled to leave Darwin for Adelaide tomorrow morning.

Ms Playford estimates just under 200 are booked for that journey as well.

She said they would do the same thing with those guests, and coach them down to Katherine to get on the Ghan there, as long as the roads were open.
The season of climate refugees begins. The refugees are fleeing not the heat, but the cold. The flow of those climate refugees will reverse itself in about 4 months when the cold subsides. Happy Season to those of us who depend on those climate refugees for our livelihood.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
11:30 AM IST December 27 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: Cyclonic Storm THANE Over Southeast Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Alert For North Tamil Nadu And South Andhra Pradesh Coast

At 6:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary during past 3 hours and lay centered near 12.0N 87.0E, about 750 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 750 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 600 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by Friday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity is T2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 7.5N to 15.0N and 82.0E to 92.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with a central pressure of 994 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

6 HRS: 12.3N 86.5E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.5N 86.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.8N 83.8E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.0N 81.2E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
Parts of the south could be digging out of snow this time next week as the coldest air thus far is being depicted here on the Euro. Also this could produce severe wx here in FL before the first freeze arrives. It should be noted that the GFS does not show this at all but the Euro has now for days. So my bets are the Euro is on to something here.



Lots of cold here in Siberia about to make an entrance here in the US.

LOL Look at the Nor-Easter the Euro blows up by next Tuesday over New England. This run is showing coastal sections getting heavy rains with 50 to 60 mph and strong winds with blizzard conditions across the interior. Again the Euro has shown this now since last Friday.

Ouch the -10 degree line on the Euro is all the way down to N FL.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Lots of cold here in Siberia about to make an entrance here in the US.

You live in Siberia?
Quoting interstatelover7165:
You live in Siberia?


No way. LOL! I was referencing the map I posted. I live in FL. On Christmas Eve I was swimming in my pool in 80 degree wx. Been 80 plus a good bit of December here.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Ouch the -10 degree line on the Euro is all the way down to N FL.

So 14 degrees at 5000 feet in early January? Doesn't sound too bad. Welcome, in fact, after this very warm December, where it's been a little to much above normal 22 of this month's 26 days (and 15 of the last 17 in November). FWIW, the 10-day forecasts I'm seeing show just a minor dip in temps for next Tuesday; it'll be interesting to see whether they pick up on what the Euro is seeing.

(It's interesting to note how warm the western half of the country is forecast to be while the east cools off a bit.)
Quoting Neapolitan:

So 14 degrees at 5000 feet in early January? Doesn't sound too bad. Welcome, in fact, after this very warm December, where it's been a little to much above normal 22 of this month's 26 days (and 15 of the last 17 in November). FWIW, the 10-day forecasts I'm seeing show just a minor dip in temps for next Tuesday; it'll be interesting to see whether they pick up on what the Euro is seeing.


Yeah, I don't know if the Euro is over doing things or what but it is interesting that the Euro has been on this since last Friday while ther GFS doesn't even hint at that scenario but then again the GFS has not been good at all lately. I will say though the GFS did show this a week ago and at that time it was 14 to days out and that run is similar to todays Euro.
As we all have seen with Hurricanes and intensity, as the ECMWF in 2010 had Fiona hitting Florida as strong as Katrina at peak, the EURO can sometimes overdue the strength of a cold snap.

No way -10 degree weather will get to FL this year.

Strong El Nino year with a different AO, maybe.
Philippines death toll rises after grim ocean find.


The death toll from a massive tropical storm in the Philippines has risen to almost 1,250 as salvage teams recover more bodies of those killed in flash flooding.

The civil defence office initially said the confirmed number of fatalities had surged by more than 200 to 1,453, before revising the figure down to 1,249 due to double-counting.

Authorities are warning the eventual number of confirmed dead could hit 2,000.

Navy and coastguard boats are still pulling bodies out of the water around the battered island of Mindanao.

Residents trying to salvage belongings from collapsed homes are also grimly recovering the bodies of their neighbours.

Last week's storm caused sudden and deadly overnight flash flooding that washed away coastal homes built on sandbars and riverbanks.

Floods have submerged towns in Leyte province in the east central Philippines and in Agusan and Surigao provinces in the south-east.

The rains were brought by a low pressure system over Mindanao which is expected to dissipate in the next two days.

But disaster officials say it could take up to six months to build housing for the 60,000 people left homeless by the floods.

Philippines Red Cross chairman Richard Gordon says they are trying to find housing that will not be swept away by future storms.

"We're still having problems in the sense that we would have to now look at the situation in terms of long-term housing," he said.

"The problem is the land. We need to have safe land. Land that will not be threatened by any earthquakes or any floods or any landslides."

Meanwhile, the health secretary and a team of doctors are visiting evacuation centres where around 5,000 people have been reported sick with colds, fever and diarrhoea due to sanitation problems.

The United Nations has called for $28 million in aid to clear debris and to provide shelter, food and water.


- ABC

© ABC 2011
Cyclone Grant likely to reform over Gulf



Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is expected to reform into a category one cyclone on Thursday as it moves across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a new tropical cyclone watch which predicts Grant, about 95 kilometres south of Jabiru, will begin moving east tomorrow.

The bureau says it will then cross the Gulf of Carpentaria on Thursday, where it may redevelop into a tropical cyclone about 1pm (local time).

It says heavy rain is expected to cause flooding in low-lying areas over the Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and Roper-McArthur districts.

Tides will also be higher than normal between Milingimbi and Groote Eylandt, and large waves may produce minor flooding of low-lying coastal areas.

Senior forecaster Graeme King says the system is slowly moving south-east.

"It's going to cross the Gulf of Carpentaria coast early Thursday and pass out into open waters somewhere near Groote Eyland," he said.

"We think at this stage it's still quite a well developed low, so the chances of it developing into a cyclone on Thursday are reasonable at this stage."

What remains of Grant has already dumped torrential rain across the northern Top End, causing havoc to transport and leaving dozens of people stranded in floodwaters.

Hundreds of millimetres of rain were recorded in many areas last night and waters rose quickly near Katherine, south of Darwin.

Flood havoc



In one incident a , trapping two of the drivers.

One of the drivers had to be airlifted to Royal Darwin Hospital with back injuries.

Member for Katherine, Willem Westra Van Holthe, said carriages could be seen floating downstream.

"It's what I'd describe as a scene of devastation here," he said.

"Apart from the enormous amount of water flowing across the road, there's sheets of bitumen that have been lifted off and carried away and also it appears as though the train tried to get across this morning while the river has flooded.

"The train bridge appears to have collapsed and there are carriages in the water."

Bert Easthope from the freight train operator, Genesee and Wyoming Australia, says his company will conduct an investigation into what caused the train to derail.

"We're still working our way through the detail, we'll work with our customers and people like the Australian Transport Safety Bureau to clearly understand what's caused this," he said.

"It's an unfortunate event but we will get to the bottom of it."

Rescued



Meanwhile, Emergency Service volunteers are responding to numerous calls for help and police have closed sections of the Stuart Highway because of flooding.

Local resident Elizabeth Robinson says her family had to wade through chest-deep water to shelter on a bulldozer this morning before they were rescued.

"With three kids, one infant, two women and two blokes and about 50 dogs," she said.

NT police have also rescued two people who were swept off the roof of their car on the Edith River Bridge after it aquaplaned and stalled.

They were able to cling to a tree about 50 metres downstream and were rescued a short time later.



Roads remain cut and Katherine Police Commander David Proctor says several people are stuck in their cars, caught between floodwaters.

"At the moment we are trying to work out ways to recover them to dry land," he said.

An Aboriginal community near Katherine has also been isolated by floodwaters.

Wendy Wittika from the tiny community of Werrenbun, near Edith Falls, says her home was flooded last night and the family was forced to escape.

"We were sleeping and when I got up I saw the water at our backyard was filling up," she said.

"It kept on raining and raining then my daughter got up and saw the front yard water was filling up, and then when we saw that we were frightened.

"All the children were with us and we got them up last night and we started get all our blankets and sheets, what we needed to move out."


© ABC 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy:
As we all have seen with Hurricanes and intensity, as the ECMWF in 2010 had Fiona hitting Florida as strong as Katrina at peak, the EURO can sometimes overdue the strength of a cold snap.

No way -10 degree weather will get to FL this year.

Strong El Nino year with a different AO, maybe.


That -10 line isn't at the surface it's more like at 5,000 ft. The surface temps would likely be in the 40's & 50's for highs with lows in the 20's & 30's.
00z run of ECMWF with cold/snow for East Coast looks overamplified and unlikely to occur in my opinion.
Yesterday was the 7 year anniversary of the 2004 tsunami.
Thane (not the best TRMM pass ever)
HPC Preliminary Extended

Excerpt:

...SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS STILL SKETCHY...




Preliminary Day 7 Min Temps


Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC Preliminary Extended

Excerpt:

...SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEASTERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS STILL SKETCHY...




Preliminary Day 7 Min Temps




Yup say what you want but the Euro has had a much better track record than the GFS. Also it has support with a negative NAO next week.

Accuweather has lows near the freezing mark in C FL next week with highs in the 50's.
DATE links are into the IRIS WILBER system where you can see seismograms and request datasets.




DATE and TIME (UTC)
LAT-ITUDE
LONG-ITUDE
MAG-NITUDE
DEPTH km
REGION


27-DEC-2011 15:21:56
51.86
95.82
6.6
6.9
SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA, RUSSIA


Earthquake Shaking Alert Level: GREENDownload Alert PDFWhat's this?


Tuesday, December 27th, 2011 at 15:21:56 UTC (23:21:56 local)
Location: 51.9° N, 95.8° EDepth: 6km
Event Id: USC0007DAX
Alert Version: 1
Created: 26 minutes, 50 seconds after earthquake.
Kinda weird quake struck Siberia

THis is the current isobar map of the ATL

I do not understand why that 994 mb low in CnATL has hurricane force winds and that one to its northeast is developing hurricane force winds having lower BarPressure to 984 mb?
A Vietnamese ship together with 23 crewmen has gone missing off the Philippines, Vietnam Maritime Search and Rescue Coordination Center (VMRCC) said Monday. The center quoted Vietnam National Shipping Lines (Vinalines) as saying that its ship, Vinalines Queen, was at 20-00N; 123-47.1E off the Luzon Island before the company lost contact with it on Sunday. It tilted 18 degrees before disappearing, Vinalines added. VMRCC has asked for help from the research and rescue centers of Taiwan and the Philippines. However, because of bad weather, they have yet to access the site where the ship -- which was carrying 54,400 tons of nickel ore from Morowali in Indonesia to China’s Ningde City -- went missing. A report on VnExpress on Tuesday said the Vietnamese center also informed the forces of Hong Kong and Japan of the accident for cooperative research efforts. So far the ship and its crewmen are nowhere to be found. According to the newswire, the center will probably assign helicopters to the site to search for victims.
There are now 359 Giorni Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Tuesday.


Tornado Warning
Statement as of 12:21 PM EST on December 27, 2011


The National Weather Service in Wilmington NC has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
eastern Brunswick County in southeast North Carolina
southern New Hanover County in southeast North Carolina

* until 1245 PM EST

* at 1219 PM EST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 12 miles south
of Oak Island... or about 19 miles southeast of Shallotte... moving
northeast at 55 mph.

* Some locations in the warning include...
Long Beach...
Southport...
Boiling Spring Lakes...
Carolina Beach...
Had another flock of birds fall out of the sky in KY..
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Parts of the south could be digging out of snow this time next week as the coldest air thus far is being depicted here on the Euro. Also this could produce severe wx here in FL before the first freeze arrives. It should be noted that the GFS does not show this at all but the Euro has now for days. So my bets are the Euro is on to something here.





How far south are we talking here? That ridge looks like it is well into the Texas area. Perhaps some freezing temps for highs in SE Texas?

Quoting DavidHOUTX:


How far south are we talking here? That ridge looks like it is well into the Texas area. Perhaps some freezing temps for highs in SE Texas?


Shush David!  ;-)


Iran threatens to block oil shipments in Strait of Hormuz if oil sanctions are imposed on the country
Posted on December 27, 2011

December 27, 2011 – TEHRAN – Iran’s first vice-president warned on Tuesday that the flow of crude will be stopped from the crucial Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf if foreign sanctions are imposed on its oil exports, the country’s official news agency reported. “If they (the West) impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz,” IRNA quoted Mohammad Reza Rahimi as saying. About a third of all sea-borne oil was shipped through the Strait in 2009, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and U.S. warships patrol the area to ensure safe passage. Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program have increased since the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on Nov. 8 that Tehran appears to have worked on designing a nuclear bomb and may still be pursuing research to that end. Iran strongly denies this and says it is developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Iran has warned it will respond to any attack by hitting Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf, and analysts say one way to retaliate would be to close the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the crude exported from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq – together with nearly all the liquefied natural gas from lead exporter Qatar – must slip through a 4-mile (6.4 km) wide shipping channel between Oman and Iran. (Writing by Ramin Mostafavi, editing by Jane Baird) –Reuters
What a significant storm being depicted on the models with some freakish cold air behind it! CMC model.

One heck of a blizzard looks to be in store for the Northeast with very strong Gales for Coastal New England with significant beach erosion. Euro below!



Erosion Hits Famous German Coastal Cliffs
Photo Gallery: Disaster on Rugen Photos DPA

Forever immortalized in canvas by painter Caspar David Friedrich, the chalk cliffs on the German island of Rugen have been a major tourist draw for two centuries. In recent years, however, the cliffs have suffered from major erosion. Now, following a landslide that took down part of a cliff near the Kap Arkona cape on Monday afternoon, a 10-year-old girl is missing.

The landslide struck the girl, her mother and a sister. Emergency workers were able to rescue the seriously injured mother and lightly injured sister, who were taken to a hospital. More than 100 rescue workers continued through the night searching for the young girl, who they believe is buried beneath the chalk sludge. With low temperatures, local officials said the chances of finding the child alive were slim.

Link



The cliffs were immortalized in a famous painting by Caspar David Friedrich in the 1800s and have been a major tourist draw in Germany.



Link
GFS only model not showing this. GFS has been garbage compared to the other Global Models.

Quoting sunlinepr:
Erosion Hits Famous German Coastal Cliffs
Photo Gallery: Disaster on Rugen Photos DPA

Forever immortalized in canvas by painter Caspar David Friedrich, the chalk cliffs on the German island of Rugen have been a major tourist draw for two centuries. In recent years, however, the cliffs have suffered from major erosion. Now, following a landslide that took down part of a cliff near the Kap Arkona cape on Monday afternoon, a 10-year-old girl is missing.

The landslide struck the girl, her mother and a sister. Emergency workers were able to rescue the seriously injured mother and lightly injured sister, who were taken to a hospital. More than 100 rescue workers continued through the night searching for the young girl, who they believe is buried beneath the chalk sludge. With low temperatures, local officials said the chances of finding the child alive were slim.

Link



The cliffs were immortalized in a famous painting by Caspar David Friedrich in the 1800s and have been a major tourist draw in Germany.


WOW!
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 359 Giorni Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Tuesday.




is there a point too this ???
Big snow event for the SE US especially the Appalachian Mtns which could get dumped on.

"States may lose crucial flood-predicting tools"

Link
Very dangerous storm on the Euro and it's been showing up on the Euro now since Friday. This will cause chaos for millions trying to get back home from Christmas break. Folks this is a blizzard coming up the Appalachians to the NE US.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Big snow event for the SE US especially the Appalachian Mtns which could get dumped on.



Ugh!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Very dangerous storm on the Euro and it's been showing up on the Euro now since Friday. This will cause chaos for millions trying to get back home from Christmas break. Folks this is a blizzard coming up the Appalachians to the NE US.



What is the timing for this storm?
Quoting StormTracker2K:
What a significant storm being depicted on the models with some freakish cold air behind it! CMC model.



Well it's about time! Bring on the cold baby!:)
Quoting palmbaywhoo:


What is the timing for this storm?


Looks like starting Sunday but the main thrust of this storm looks like might be from Tuesday thru Thursday starting in the SE US then spreading North toward New England.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONIC STORM THANE (BOB05-2011)
17:30 PM IST December 27 2011
===================================

Cyclonic Storm "Thane" Over Southeast And Adjoining Southwest Bay Of Bengal

Cyclone Alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast: Yellow Message

At 12:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Thane over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered near 12.5N 86.5E, about 650 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu), 700 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka) and 670 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island).

The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by Friday morning.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -77C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal from 7.5N to 15.0N and 82.0E to 90.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots with a central pressure of 992 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system center.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 27-28C over the region. It is relatively less towards Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka coast becoming 26-27C. The ocean heat thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system. It is 50-80 kj/cm2 to the west and west northwest of the system and less than 50 kj/cm2 near Tamil Nadu and north Sri Lanka coast. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model prediction, it is expected to le in phase 5 during next 5 days. the phase 5 is favorable for intensification, as per our past studies. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0 N and hence helps in west northwest movement of the system. The low level convergence as well as upper divergence does not show any change during past 6 hours. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low to moderate. There is no significant change in wind shear during past 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

6 HRS: 12.7N 86.0E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 12.9N 85.5E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 13.N 83.2E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.2N 80.6E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
Thanks StormTracker
snow is evil...it is of Satan...
Quoting presslord:


Ugh!
Thats right Press..snow SNOW in da Carolina,s . 10 feet of white hell headed for U. Hope ya got the snowshoes and snowblower ready..he he he.. God i love this post.
It's no Chalk's Cliff but Volusia county taxpayers are going to foot the bill to fix the sea wall that eroded away at Sunglow Resort earlier this month. The seawall was on land the resort leases from the county but failed to fix the wall as ordered by the county~ ironically because the permits took to long to pull before the ocean destroyed it.


Quoting Tazmanian:




is there a point too this ???


I thought it was just to encourage a good DOOM comment like.. & more birds are falling from the sky.
Quoting presslord:
snow is evil...it is of Satan...
satan flakes....fer yoooo
Quoting hydrus:
satan flakes....fer yoooo


just his dandruff, give that man some head and shoulders.
LOL at the HPC Final, setting up a battle of the models.

Excerpt:

THEN COMETH THE 12Z/27 CANADIAN...HANDLING THE PATTERN ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOWER 48 FROM DAY 4 ONWARD VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z/27 ECMWF
WITH SPECTACULAR DIGGING/CLOSING OFF ALOFT NEAR THE LOWER MS VLY
EARLY TUE. THE SCORE IS EVEN WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN/00Z AND 12Z
ECMWF/00Z/27 ECENS MEAN PITTED AGAINST THE 12Z/27 GFS/GEFS
MEAN/UKMET. THE NEW 12Z/27 ECMWF PLAYS UP A DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE
IN THE AMPLIFYING CENTRAL/ERN TROF TUE/WED BUT HAS THE SAME IDEA
AS PREVIOUSLY...FORECASTING THE A DAY 8 STORM FOR THE E COAST
INSTEAD OF DAY 7. WITH THIS MUCH SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY FINAL
GRAPHICS ARE STAYING UNCHANGED...HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON THE BACK END
TOWARDS THE ECENS MEAN.
Quoting hydrus:
Thats right Press..snow SNOW in da Carolina,s . 10 feet of white hell headed for U. Hope ya got the snowshoes and snowblower ready..he he he.. God i love this post.


I wouldn't know a snowblower if it bit me on the......well...at any rate...I'm unfamiliar with the term....
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