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A Week of Storminess on the Southern Plains Dryline

By: Bob Henson 4:26 PM GMT on May 23, 2016

With climatology in the driver’s seat, a busy week of potentially tornadic weather will take shape from Nebraska to Texas. This prototypical late-May pattern is being driven by a very slow-moving upper low centered near Montana and an upper trough extending to California. Moderately strong southwest flow ahead of this trough will persist nearly all week across the Southern Plains--a recipe for tornadic trouble this time of year, given the presence of very warm, moist low-level air streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico. The veering and strengthening of winds with height will lead to the vertical wind shear that favors tornadic supercells. In general, this week’s wind shear will not be as strong as seen in the worst tornado outbreaks, but there will be pockets of localized enhancement. In places where these coincide with areas of extreme instability, we can expect supercells to spit out very large hail, high winds, and tornadoes in some cases.

The pattern emerging this week is familiar to severe storm watchers. The persistent southwest flow at upper levels will help to perpetuate a sharp dryline separating dry air from the Desert Southwest and the moist Gulf air mass. This time of year, the dryline often “sloshes,” pushing east during the heat of the afternoon and then retreating back west overnight. Each afternoon’s push can be enough to trigger scattered severe storms along the dry line, with the locations determined by small-scale features that can be hard to predict until just hours before storms begin to develop. Storms are likely to congeal each night into sprawling, slow-moving mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that roll across parts of the Plains. Morning cloudiness from the MCSs, and the boundaries of rain-cooled outflow air, will play a huge role in dictating where the next day’s storms will focus. Forecasters at the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center and at local NWS offices will have their hands full this week pinning down those mesoscale details and identifying the highest-threat areas. Mesoscale models that are now commonly updated every hour will help greatly; for example, mesoscale runs on Monday morning have zoomed in on northwest and west-central Texas and southwest Oklahoma as one of the primary threat areas for late Monday (see Figure 3).


Figure 1. WU’s severe weather map for Sunday night, May 22, severe thunderstorm watches (yellow) and tornado watches (red) were strung along a boundary all the way from the Saskatchewan border with North Dakota to the Texas border with Mexico.


Figure 2. This large tornado, photographed in low light 15 miles east of Stinnett, Texas, around 6:30 pm CDT on Sunday, May 22, 2016, was one of several spun up by a long-lived supercell thunderstorm in northeast Texas. No major damage was reported. Photo credit: © John Monteverdi, used with permission.

The north-south spread of the activity was vast on Sunday evening: tornado and severe thunderstorm watches extended all the way from the Canadian to the Mexican border (Figure 1), with severe weather reported in every state from North Dakota to Texas. SPC logged 37 preliminary tornado reports from South Dakota, Kansas, and Texas as of Monday morning (reduced to 28 reports by late Monday morning), and hail up to 3” in diameter fell from several storms in Texas and Kansas. Fortunately, the severe weather was focused on sparsely populated areas, and no major damage or serious injuries were reported.


Figure 3. Areas of showers and thunderstorms projected by the 14Z (9:00 am CDT) Monday run of the HRRR model for 7:00 pm CDT Monday, May 23, 2016. Storm locations predicted by mesoscale models such as HRRR will vary from run to run and model to model, so forecasters watch for consistent messages across models and across time. Image credit: www.tropicaltidbits.com.


Figure 4. WU depiction of NOAA/SPC convective outlook areas in effect on Monday morning, May 23, 2016, for (left to right) Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, May 23 – 25. Dark orange denotes an enhanced risk of severe weather; yellow, a slight risk; and dark green, a marginal risk. The Day 1 area is updated several times each day; the Day 2 area is updated around 1:30 pm EDT. Full-sized maps can be found on the WU convective outlook page.

The outlook for Monday and beyond
On Monday, the eastward advance of a cool front is teaming up with rain-cooled air to help tamp down the threat of severe weather from Kansas northward. The air mass should have little trouble recovering in Texas and Oklahoma, where Monday’s severe threat will be focused. As of mid-morning Monday, SPC had an enhanced risk of severe weather extending southwest Oklahoma to far southwest Texas (Figure 4), with a slight risk into northwest Oklahoma and only a marginal risk further north. The big picture changes little on Tuesday, although the odds of severe weather may improve across parts of northeast Colorado and southern Nebraska as upslope surface winds increase and moisture shifts west. It now appears that a large chunk of the upper trough will swing across the Southern Plains on Thursday, which would heighten the chance of more concentrated severe weather and shift it toward more populated parts of eastern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Localized flooding and flash flooding may become an increasing issue as the week rolls on, especially as the north-south boundary pushes into richer moisture over the eastern Great Plains. A flood watch is in effect through Wednesday morning for parts of southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas adjoining the Red River, where additional heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday night may fall atop already saturated soils and rain-swollen creeks.

Bob Henson


Figure 5. The 5-day precipitation forecast from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, spanning the period from 8:00 am EDT Monday, May 23, 2016 to 8:00 am Saturday, May 28.

Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Bob
Thanks for the update, and also for reminding us about the incredible Arctic's sea ice melt season underway in your last post. A must-read for those interested in the topic.

Meanwhile, here's my comment from the last blog, Arctic Sea Ice Goes Far Beyond Record Low Extent for May - by Bob Henson :

- Africa Food Crisis 2016: El Nino Drought To Make More Than 50 Million Go Hungry, UN Says - I.B.Times, on 05/23/16. (w/ video)

El Nino has caused severe droughts in some regions of the continent, especially in the Horn of Africa and southern Africa. Globally, the weather phenomenon is stretching resources thin in Central America, South America, the Caribbean and Southeast Asia, according to the Science and Development Network, a nonprofit science and technology news site.
"The collective impact of the El Nino phenomenon has created one of the world's biggest disasters for millions of people, yet this crisis is receiving little attention," Stephen O'Brien, the United Nations' humanitarian chief, said.
The affected populations include millions of children globally who are or are likely to become malnourished from the droughts. The U.N. expects that food supplies in affected areas will largely run out by July and the crisis will continue until its peak between December and next April.


See also : - El Nino and fighting leave 80 million in food crisis - SciDev.net, on 05/23/16.

(Edit : El Nino, fighting and... climate change, of course ;-)
Thanks for the update; one of the missing ingredients today is the absence of shear producing jet flow into the lower Mid-West and MS Valley region but the SW flow is evident. Have to see what happens later in this period if/when the jet continues to push East over the 2-3 day time frame come Wednesday and Thursday:

UA Mandatory Level - 500 mb Current
A closer look at today's outlook from the SPC.




DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...WESTERN OK...AND WEST TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS INTO TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. VERY LARGE
HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. ONE IS
OVER NORTHERN AZ...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO CO/WRN KS BY THIS
EVENING. A SECOND TROUGH IS NOTED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN
AZ/NM AND WILL MOVE INTO WEST TX AFTER SUNSET. BOTH FEATURES WILL
LIKELY HELP TO INITIATE SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A LITTLE LATE TO MAXIMIZE THE SEVERE
THREAT AROUND MAX HEATING. THE RESULT IS THE RISK OF ISOLATED
INTENSE SUPERCELLS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE LARGER AND MORE INTENSE
CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP.

A LONG-LIVED MCS OVER SOUTHERN OK IS PROCEEDING EASTWARD...ALLOWING
THE RAPID RETURN OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
OK AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE FOR A RISK OF
VERY LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THE ENHANCED RISK AREA.
DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES INCLUDING A TORNADO OR TWO...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
EVENTUAL BOWING STRUCTURES PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

...CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...
A FEW HIGH-BASED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER EASTERN CO...TRACKING INTO WESTERN KS. LARGE HAIL
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN
KS/NEB INTO IA/MN/WI. WHILE A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS...IT APPEARS THAT LIMITED CAPE VALUES AND RELATIVELY
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.

..HART/COOK.. 05/23/2016

There's pretty decent consensus right now between the GFS/ECMWF/CMC that some sort of low pressure system may attempt to develop north of the Bahamas in 5-6 days. GFS and the CMC show an identical solution, whereas the ECMWF is slower with genesis in about 8-9 days (may not even be the same system).
Quoting 5. CybrTeddy:

There's pretty decent consensus right now between the GFS/ECMWF/CMC that some sort of low pressure system may attempt to develop north of the Bahamas in 5-6 days. GFS and the CMC show an identical solution, whereas the ECMWF is slower with genesis in about 8-9 days (may not even be the same system).


Just in time to ruin my weeklong vacation to Hilton Head starting this Saturday :(
Great piece! Think we'll see these rain projections far low from what really happens this week. Certainly a larger outbreak for Thursday/Friday possible. OKC area will be right in the heart of possible outbreak by projection by SPC. Rain totals for SC Wisconsin are going to be, I believe, closer to 2-3 inches over the next five days. And the further outlook is for thunderstorms possible for the next seven for my neck of the woods. Very active pattern has begun and I worry, for many areas, crop damage may become a real concern. We can take a week of rain here, it's pretty dry. Water sheds are still healthy from very heavy late Winter and early Spring rains. Much more than a week of healthy rain from daily thunderstorms would begin to cause problems. 84 today, snowed little over a week ago here. Got hot fast.
Accuweather is jumping in favor of some development.



Accuweather discussion of potential tropical development
img src="

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Quoting 9. Grothar:

img src="

">


Multiple models are now on-board with possible development close to Florida over the next 10 days.  However, I am still not sold on it due to very high shear levels. I don't see such a drastic drop from current levels by early next week given the current El Nino flow across the Gulf and Florida that has been well established for several weeks now: time will tell if it will suddenly drop/disappear in 9-10 days.  

Quoting 10. Patrap:
Who is that?
Quoting 8. Tropicsweatherpr:

Accuweather is jumping in favor of some development.



Accuweather discussion of potential tropical development
How is there little wind shear yet the levels of shear shows 40-50 knts
Points of Origin by 10-Day Period

The figures below show the points of tropical cyclone genesis by 10-day periods during the hurricane season. These figures depict named storms only; no subtropical storms or unnamed storms. The source years include 1851-2009 for the Atlantic and 1949-2009 for the Eastern Pacific from the HURDAT database.





Memorial Day with a weak system making landfall in South Carolina. 925 mb winds (2500 ft. or so)
Quoting 12. bappit:

Who is that?


I sure hope the season isn't mysterious and spooky.
Squids on the rise as oceans change

"Our analyses showed that cephalopod abundance has increased since the 1950s, a result that was remarkably consistent across three distinct groups," says lead author Dr Zoë Doubleday, Research Fellow in the Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences.

"Cephalopods are often called 'weeds of the sea' as they have a unique set of biological traits, including rapid growth, short lifespans and flexible development. These allow them to adapt to changing environmental conditions (such as temperature) more quickly than many other marine species, which suggests that they may be benefiting from a changing ocean environment."


Link
Quoting 12. bappit:

Who is that?
She doesn't look as though she has your best interests at heart.
The flip side of the equation are current SST's in-around the Gulf Stream off the Florida Coast; have to see how that plays out against a potential low and shear levels in that region. Anything could happen if shear does drop to moderate levels near a low North of the Bahamas depending on trajectory:




Afternoon all .
Quoting 5. CybrTeddy:

There's pretty decent consensus right now between the GFS/ECMWF/CMC that some sort of low pressure system may attempt to develop north of the Bahamas in 5-6 days. GFS and the CMC show an identical solution, whereas the ECMWF is slower with genesis in about 8-9 days (may not even be the same system).
Wouldn't be surprised..... heat and humidity here today feel more like July than May.... Just need a low pressure system to add to the mix.....
Quoting 11. weathermanwannabe:

Multiple models are now on-board with possible development close to Florida over the next 10 days.  However, I am still not sold on it due to very high shear levels. I don't see such a drastic drop from current levels by early next week given the current El Nino flow across the Gulf and Florida that has been well established for several weeks now: time will tell if it will suddenly drop/disappear in 9-10 days.  


That little col area to our east.... at least a possibility....
12z ECMWF is running, that little "notch" near Miami is our potential system. ECMWF is further south and faster, thus portraying a weaker scenario.

Quoting 22. CybrTeddy:

12z ECMWF is running, that little "notch" near Miami is our potential system. ECMWF is further south and faster, thus portraying a weaker scenario.


Is it suggesting the source is Twave or frontal?
Quoting 20. BahaHurican:

Afternoon all .
Wouldn't be surprised..... heat and humidity here today feel more like July than May.... Just need a low pressure system to add to the mix.....


Yes - it went from pretty nice -- to unbelievably muggy and hot in a few days

25. jbol
love this site - but would just like to mention that Stinnet is northWEST TX - Tyler, etc was very calm yesterday
Quoting 24. zoomiami:



Yes - it went from pretty nice -- to unbelievably muggy and hot in a few days


Yeah.... around the 17th or so.... plus p.m. showers are in effect... plus my power just got knocked out by lightning....
I'm out.... will take pics if it gets wild.... ciao, amigos
The nuclear waste site at the heart of Canada’s wildfires

Just south of the Canadian city of Fort McMurray, in an area partly ravaged by flames, sits a nuclear waste site.

Situated at the extreme north of the Beacon Hill landfill tip, it contains some 42,500 m3 of radioactive minerals, including uranium and cesium.

But does it pose a threat to society today? According to information gained by euronews reporter Renaud Gardette, the site lies in the middle of the huge wildfires, blazing uncontrollably since May 1.


Link
Quoting 23. BahaHurican:

Is it suggesting the source is Twave or frontal?


Frontal, forms from a cutoff low.
I want to see shear level fall before I believe we see any type of developing I think euro right weak development low
Good evening folks, and thanks for the new entry, Bob.

As forecast Germany saw some severe weather yesterday due to low "Barbara" (umm). Below an article about the damage in the northwest, although it probably wasn't a tornado but a downburst. At my place just some gentle rain, fortunately, and temperatures dropped significantly.



Tornado rips off roofs as storm batters west Germany
The Local (Germany), Published: 23 May 2016 10:21 GMT 02:00
Five houses had to be evacuated in Minden, North Rhine-Westphalia, after a tornado swept through the town on Sunday.
Thirty-three people had to leave their homes in the town, after the storm ripped off roofs and toppled trees dangerously near to houses.
Police described the storm as a tornado, but a German Weather Service (DWD) spokeswoman said that "we are now investigating but can't yet say for certain" whether it was a true twister. ...


Here a video of this damaging storm:



More severe storms currently under way in the east of the country as the tracks of lightning show:


Edit: saved after the storms ( a MCS) cleared Berlin. Lot of rain with some local flooding reported. But rain is very welcome over there as it has been very dry in this part of the country in May.
Quoting 13. Camerooski:

How is there little wind shear yet the levels of shear shows 40-50 knts



that is for the end of may this is now there may be 40 too 50kt of shear now but by the end of may there may be little too no shear in that area has the wind shear is forecast too drop by that time


all so i have thing storms fourm in the face of 40 to 50kt of wind shear like TS barry in the gulf so we can get named storms in the gulf with 40 too 50KT of shear
Some red echoes to my north in DC suburbs (and moving southwest). In this airmass I fear hail
from anything at all intense. Words fail me although some four letter ones not
commonly found in the scholarly literature keep bubbling up.

Some reports of hail around DC area but not at my house this time.


Africa is really ramping up! Source to get an animation.
The Climate Feedback site is up a running -

A Scientific Reference to Reliable Information on Climate Change


What if online coverage could be peer-reviewed?


Using the Hypothesis annotation platform, our community of scientists go through a variety of online media articles and provide ‘feedback’ on the scientific accuracy of the information presented. Readers can view these annotations directly alongside the original texts and see exactly where the article’s information is consistent — or inconsistent — with scientific thinking and state-of-the-art knowledge in the field.
You may have heard this a million times, but this is one heck of a weird Atlantic sst setup.
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 8h8 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Things going to get unsettled Bahamas and FLA early next week as early season mischief lurks
I saw very small hail outside.I'm sure some of the rush hour commuters will be very disappointed as that was not in the forecast for today and the rain did come down pretty heavy for a time.


May look different in a month or two.
Tis the season
CMC almost forms...back-to-back storms!

TS Colin?
A tornado watch was recently issued for Western Texas but so far so good on the loops (and the last 3 hours overall):

South Plains sector loopWW0199 Radarlast3hours Reports Graphic
Will this season be more active for hurricanes? We'll have to wait and see. Hopefully , Florida will stay safe for another year
Quoting 42. HurricaneFan:

CMC almost forms...back-to-back storms!
img
We can't trust the CMC.
Quoting 44. birdsrock2016:

Will this season be more active for hurricanes? We'll have to wait and see. Hopefully , Florida will stay safe for another year

I think so. We've already had a hurricane, and most models are suggesting that something subtropical or tropical could form this weekend or next week. With La Nina forming, wind shear will be much weaker than last year at the peak of the season.
Low Shear in the area of the Potential Storm.
48. IDTH
Quoting 47. Climate175:

Low Shear in the area of the Potential Storm.

Call me a pessimist but shear is so high right now, I can't see it dropping that low. I see a situation where there wounds being marginal amount of shear and maybe one brief chance of low shear.
Quoting 39. washingtonian115:

I saw very small hail outside.I'm sure some of the rush hour commuters will be very disappointed as that was not in the forecast for today and the rain did come down pretty heavy for a time.


It should have been in the forecast since weather service forecasters mentioned it in the forecast discussion. With cold air aloft and low freezing levels, hail can occur with even innocuous convection and this should not have been a surprise today.
Quoting 48. IDTH:


Call me a pessimist but shear is so high right now, I can't see it dropping that low. I see a situation where there wounds being marginal amount of shear and maybe one brief chance of low shear.
That is and anomaly map.
Quoting 49. georgevandenberghe:



It should have been in the forecast since weather service forecasters mentioned it in the forecast discussion. With cold air aloft and low freezing levels, hail can occur with even innocuous convection and this should not have been a surprise today.

CWG
Today is not as rainy or cool as Saturday and Sunday, but showers are around — with the greatest coverage perhaps in our southern areas. (On Sunday, they focused in our northern areas). Under cloudy skies, highs are mostly in the mid-to-upper 60s. If we’re lucky, we may experience a dry interval, with the best opportunity between late morning and mid-afternoon. Winds are light from the north.
NBC4
"Few showers light rain maybe a rumble of thunder"
FOX5
Showers likely
This won't help the SSTA pattern over the MDR.
Quoting 9. Grothar:

img src="

">
Would not mind a couple of early season Tropical Storms heading our way at all.. so long as they play nice!
Quoting 38. washingtonian115:
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 8h8 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Things going to get unsettled Bahamas and FLA early next week as early season mischief lurks
One of those rare occasions where I actually agree with the old 'roidhead.


I’ve been looking at Trump’s secret wall . He’s going to need it . It's facing directly into teeth of the North Atlantic.

Link


Quoting 51. washingtonian115:


CWG
Today is not as rainy or cool as Saturday and Sunday, but showers are around — with the greatest coverage perhaps in our southern areas. (On Sunday, they focused in our northern areas). Under cloudy skies, highs are mostly in the mid-to-upper 60s. If we’re lucky, we may experience a dry interval, with the best opportunity between late morning and mid-afternoon. Winds are light from the north.
NBC4
"Few showers light rain maybe a rumble of thunder"
FOX5
Showers likely
One of those occasions when ground-truthing becomes an important element of hindcasting.
Do you think the NHC will mention this thing tomorrow if models continue to show it developing?
I predict that the ridge will build in extra strong pushing the "storm" into S FL into Gulf, but shear levels will be too high and nothing will form from it except rain...
18z GFS rolling in. Time to see what happens this run.
Quoting 48. IDTH:


Call me a pessimist but shear is so high right now, I can't see it dropping that low. I see a situation where there wounds being marginal amount of shear and maybe one brief chance of low shear.

Weather is (almost) always constant changing. If the GFS is right, shear will be light underneath the upper level low. We're still several days out.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

Wednesday-Upcoming Weekend: Run to run and model to model
differences continue with the forecast details for the end of the
week into the upcoming weekend, but the overall pattern remains the
same. The main upper level trough will continue to move away from
the east coast, while its southern extent will develop into a cutoff
low near the Bahamas in the Thursday-Friday time frame.

Meanwhile, surface high pressure will build across the Western
Atlantic and bring back breezy easterly flow. Most of South Florida
will be on the subsident side of the aforementioned cut-off low,
which normally translates into a drier pattern establishing across
the area. But the stronger easterly flow should advect enough low
level moisture to support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
Rain coverage looks to increase into the weekend as the upper level
trough/low meanders closer to Florida along with its associated
surface trough.
Quoting 7. DeepSeaRising:

Great piece! Think we'll see these rain projections far low from what really happens this week. Certainly a larger outbreak for Thursday/Friday possible. OKC area will be right in the heart of possible outbreak by projection by SPC. Rain totals for SC Wisconsin are going to be, I believe, closer to 2-3 inches over the next five days. And the further outlook is for thunderstorms possible for the next seven for my neck of the woods. Very active pattern has begun and I worry, for many areas, crop damage may become a real concern. We can take a week of rain here, it's pretty dry. Water sheds are still healthy from very heavy late Winter and early Spring rains. Much more than a week of healthy rain from daily thunderstorms would begin to cause problems. 84 today, snowed little over a week ago here. Got hot fast.
Yeah it has been pretty dry. Wouldn't be surprised if we get a few MCS's through here. as long as we don't have a repeat of the 1998 Derecho,which also happened at the end of a strong El Nino, we'll be fine. Although I would be on the look out for some flash flooding considering the time of year and the fact it is a leap year.
Quoting 61. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Weather is (almost) always constant. If the GFS is right, shear will be light underneath the upper level low. We're still several days out.


Weather is constant? Or should it be "weather is always changing" or "not constant". Confused on your terminology, TA.
Now at Sbux...island-wide power outage with traffic snarls due to no traffic lights... the lighting show was spectacular, too.

A smoke plume from the huge wildfires in Canada has finally reached Europe like some kind of old news from the New World...

- Llega a Espana una estela de humo de grandes incendios en Canada, Por Javier Pinero - http://www.extremadura7dias.com - 23 may 2016
GFS:



CMC:


Euro:


All in the 5 day time frame. Will be interesting if this kind of model consensus continues over the next day or two. :)
Quoting 59. Climate175:

18z GFS rolling in. Time to see what happens this run.


A GA/SC landfall.
I'm just glad we will possibly have something to track.
Quoting 65. Astrometeor:



Weather is constant? Or should it be "weather is always changing" or "not constant". Confused on your terminology, TA.

Yeah, the first is what I meant. Changed.
Quoting 12. bappit:

Who is that?


Morticia from the Addam's family. The movies, not the original show.
It looks like tropical wave #4 is out over the W Africa not reach the coast yet
Tropical wave #1 moved further NW and now entering the West Caribbean
Looking on satellite as well as the forecast for us looks like a ton of rain and stormy conditions ahead more so the second half of this week/weekend going into next week
Well bring it on rain we bloody need it
I keep looking at the Indian Ocean and thinking that it looks like something should be happening there with all that heat about.



Link
oh Camerooski's back! hahaha I kinda forgot about him, wow he's a year older.

Crazy ...


Caught on camera: A dangerous, melting road in Gujarat, India
22.05.2016: Pedestrians in Gujarat's Valsad had a nasty surprise waiting for them on Saturday. As they got onto this road, shoes and slippers stuck to the melting tar. Dismay written large on their faces, they struggled to free their shoes. Some retreated altogether, others gingerly braved the crossing.

Good night folks.
Except at the moment it looks as if the tropical whatever-we-get will be kinda weak
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016


Excerpt:

STILL EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BEGIN WEAKENING AND CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WHAT REMAINS OF THE
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THU...THEN SHIFT BACK W FRI AS A
FRONTAL TROUGH. GFS IS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
TROUGH ON SAT...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW AS OTHER
MODELS ARE NOT IN CONCERT WITH THIS SOLUTION. IN ANY CASE...A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
MODERATE NE TO E WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 558 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016
Quoting 48. IDTH:


Call me a pessimist but shear is so high right now, I can't see it dropping that low. I see a situation where there wounds being marginal amount of shear and maybe one brief chance of low shear.


that map is for may 28th sat not for today
Hurricane Season starts in a little over a week and most models showing low pressure forming off the coast early next week but strength and what will come of it is too early to tell. I believe as we get into Thursday and Friday timeframe we will see how the environment is looking for the coming days after and the models should have a better handle on it. We could have a Tropical depression or Bonnie by next week. I think it will be on the weak side overall but you never know in the tropics...Its that time of year again. Be prepared
The gulf stream is very warm and if "Bonnie" finds a low pocket of shear we could see a moderate tropical storm like Alberto or Beryl in 2012.
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5


HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS TIPS



Hurricane hazards come in many forms: storm surge, high winds, tornadoes, and flooding. This means it is important for your family to have a plan that includes all of these hazards. Look carefully at the safety actions associated with each type of hurricane hazard and prepare your family disaster plan accordingly. But remember this is only a guide. The first and most important thing anyone should do when facing a hurricane threat is to use common sense.



You should be able to answer the following questions before a hurricane threatens:

*
What are the Hurricane Hazards?
*
What does it mean to you?
*
What actions should you take to be prepared?

Hurricanes and Your Health and Safety


* The great majority of injuries during a hurricane are cuts caused by flying glass or other debris. Other injuries include puncture wounds resulting from exposed nails, metal, or glass, and bone fractures.
* State and local health departments may issue health advisories or recommendations particular to local conditions. If in doubt, contact your local or state health department.
* Make sure to include all essential medications -- both prescription and over the counter -- in your family's emergency disaster kit.


* Hurricanes, especially if accompanied by a tidal surge or flooding, can contaminate the public water supply. Drinking contaminated water may cause illness. You cannot assume that the water in the hurricane-affected area is safe to drink.
* In the area hit by a hurricane, water treatment plants may not be operating; even if they are, storm damage and flooding can contaminate water lines. Listen for public announcements about the safety of the municipal water supply.
* If your well has been flooded, it needs to be tested and disinfected after the storm passes and the floodwaters recede. Questions about testing should be directed to your local or state health department.
Quoting 67. 999Ai2016:


A smoke plume from the huge wildfires in Canada has finally reached Europe like some kind of old news from the New World...

- Llega a Espana una estela de humo de grandes incendios en Canada, Por Javier Pinero - http://www.extremadura7dias.com - 23 may 2016

Interesting that the 4 cities where the photos were taken are not anywhere near the north coastal area of Spain.
Tarragona is just south of Barcelona on the Mediterranean coast.
Lleida is not far inland of Tarragona.
Huesca is just East of Zaragoza and west of the central Pyrenees.
Teruel, is south west of Tarragona.
None of these cities are nearer than hundreds of miles from the north coast, so the level of smoke must have been very high. I'll keep an eye out for anything looking odd and like smoke and upload some photos of it if I see anything.
86. IDTH
Quoting 61. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Weather is (almost) always constant changing. If the GFS is right, shear will be light underneath the upper level low. We're still several days out.

True it is and the fact we do have some consensus right now is telling. I just don't think we're going to get a strong storm out of this (not saying people are expecting that). I'm expecting a minimal tropical storm or depression, doesn't mean it still can't cause trouble though.
87. vis0

Quoting 36. RobertWC:
 The Climate Feedback site is up a running - 

A Scientific Reference to Reliable Information on Climate Change


What if online coverage could be peer-reviewed?


Using the Hypothesis annotation platform, our community of scientists go through a variety of online media articles and provide ‘feedback’ on the scientific accuracy of the information presented. Readers can view these annotations directly alongside the original texts and see exactly where the article’s information is consistent — or inconsistent — with scientific thinking and state-of-the-art knowledge in the field.



Thank you for the note, been hoping for this for over a decade.

Hope they have an app one can embedded into any comment which scientist read after its questioned (submitted) by the public (as on here WxU members) in which scientists can immediately provide a link to an explanation.

If people question true science it will withstand the "please verify" requests by the public through an app.   

If its a comment based on pho-science the app will show a negative icon (see icons below).

 

From then on if a similar question or remark is posted it gets the amount of negative (red) or positive (green) score attached to the question.

If the person whom originally posted the comment in question asks a good question that question can be submitted and thusly be evaluated.

 We understand how it'll work on WxU by allowing the autobot to mark repeated pho-theory questions as to what they are, repeated failures or out right made up excuses / false statements to cause confusion amongst the public thus freeing members from having to reply and showing newcomers how skeptics work (troll)

Example::
 

On some skeptics site lets say Grothar posts as to how co2 has never reached this level since man has walked the Earth (not counting Grothar) and if skeptics desire to have people think that Grothars comment is false then they'd submit Grothar's comment to , that would receive a green icon showing how Grothars comment is based on facts..

 

If skeptics reply with "how during early Earth, co2 levels where higher", that would received a yellow/red icon with explanations on that board or if removed its linked via each icon.
(yellow icon would lead to an explanation that the high co2 THEN was why man/and if any or few animals existed outside of being underwater.
Red icon lead to showing how much faster co2 is rising now, how long it stays in the atmosphere, how its man made co2 not form through nature by itself.

 

made up icons::(password protected, though image should show up here) 

if you see no image try password itsfun2learn

 
please without quotation marks use password "itsfun2learn"   

  
CREDIT::
The microscope from a 1990s Paint Program. (preset shapes)  

The magnifying glass was from the site:: http://www.graphicsfuel.com/2011/12/magnifying-gl ass-search-icon-psd/

The green Check and red >X" from a 1990s Paint program. (preset shapes)

Though i had the idea before the search i did see a similar icon in the google search for the mag. glass here::

http://www.freepik.com/free-icon/magnifying-glass -with-check-mark_717615.htm

 

The i and backward "S" is just an example of creating a respected and easily noticeable icon that the public will understand to mean the comments are peer reviewed by scientists. The comments have been been  Intelligently studied.  Since to the brain  reads it falls under "is" or Si (yes) as in a known fact helping the icon brand establish its validity/value, then the colour coding lets readers know that comment has scientific merit (green) not fully understood, with explanation (yellow) and not considered scientifically accurate and/or was presented as science but disproved by peers. (red)

 

i just skimmed the site and see its a serious effort which is good yet also remember its not the choir that has to be convinced.
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING AMARILLO TX - KAMA 626 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 623 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 615 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN - KMPX 615 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 614 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 611 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

FLASH FLOOD WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 609 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING SIOUX FALLS SD - KFSD 606 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 603 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 603 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

TORNADO WARNING     MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 558 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016
If this was August or September, I'd be worried about that one. Looks mean.

From the NWS in Melbourne.


FRI-SUN...While the GFS and ECMWF both continue to show a piece of
the upper level low hanging back near the Bahamas this weekend,
considerable uncertainty remains in regards to the expected
evolution of any surface-related feature. The GFS remains the
stronger of the two solutions with a closed surface low moving
retrograding toward the peninsula on Sunday while the ECMWF keeps
the system as an open wave (though it too tries to close off a
surface circulation early next week). Confident that moisture will
increase on Friday and into the weekend, justifying chance PoPs
through the period.

Late afternoon bloomer, lot of isolated storms out there. Should see shear pick up through warned area and after dark outbreak of 20 tornadoes isn't out of the question. TWC just stated lack of shear should lower tornado number for today. "roughly quoting" I hope they're right.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

none for us:( just not enough land mass
GFS actually forms another storm on June 2nd as well...could be interesting as we could have back-to-back storms...CMC and ECMWF show the second storm as well.
they are laughing.....I think its scary....
then again if you have no control over it you might as well laugh
Quoting 77. barbamz:

Crazy ...


Caught on camera: A dangerous, melting road in Gujarat, India
22.05.2016: Pedestrians in Gujarat's Valsad had a nasty surprise waiting for them on Saturday. As they got onto this road, shoes and slippers stuck to the melting tar. Dismay written large on their faces, they struggled to free their shoes. Some retreated altogether, others gingerly braved the crossing.

Good night folks.
Quoting 92. 19N81W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

none for us:( just not enough land mass


I would bet at some point this season you'll be wishing it would stop raining. :) But seriously, hope you all get rain soon!
I am off island did we get rain?

Quoting 74. wunderkidcayman:

It looks like tropical wave #4 is out over the W Africa not reach the coast yet
Tropical wave #1 moved further NW and now entering the West Caribbean
Looking on satellite as well as the forecast for us looks like a ton of rain and stormy conditions ahead more so the second half of this week/weekend going into next week
Well bring it on rain we bloody need it

Quoting 89. 882MB:

If this was August or September, I'd be worried about that one. Looks mean.


If Africa keeps producing waves this strong, don't be surprised if we see a storm out there in late June.
Quoting 76. aquak9:

oh Camerooski's back! hahaha I kinda forgot about him, wow he's a year older.


LOL good to see you
It's raining real hard in Boca Raton. It came all of a sudden , and now we have torrential downpours. 0.43 inces in 15 minutes or less already and still counting rapidly.
Quoting 98. Camerooski:
LOL good to see you
Wait- do you even know who Red Reddington is? I don't wanna be wasting these-
Quoting 93. HurricaneFan:

GFS actually forms another storm on June 2nd as well...could be interesting as we could have back-to-back storms...CMC and ECMWF show the second storm as well.

I've seen it happen back in July 2011 with Bret and Cindy forming off of the same front

An area of low pressure formed on the southern extent of a stalled cold front just off the East Coast of the United States on July 16. Tracking south-southeast, the low-pressure center was initially baroclinic in nature, but quickly transitioned into a warm-core low over the warm waters of the western Atlantic.

On July 17, an area of showers and thunderstorms, associated with the same frontal system that spawned Tropical Storm Bret, consolidated around a developing area of low pressure
xx/xx/xx
Quoting 93. HurricaneFan:

GFS actually forms another storm on June 2nd as well...could be interesting as we could have back-to-back storms...CMC and ECMWF show the second storm as well.



Your right after I read your post I checked it out looks like the low will spawn two storms we have to wait and see what happens I think the ridge will be strong so if your in the eastern GOM I would watch out as well cause you never know
Super cells starting to drop tornadoes. One in SW Texas and it's twin in Mexico are amazing. Storms throughout warned area beginning to intensify. Looking like two or three super cells could produce tornadoes.
T - 194HRS 55 MINS TILL CANE SEASON 2016


Likely exaggerated, but if this happens in two weeks, not only will we have people on here saying "I told you so!", more importantly, the western Atlantic will effectively be shut down until it disappears.
Quoting 108. KoritheMan:



Likely exaggerated, but if this happens in two weeks, not only will we have people on here saying "I told you so!", more importantly, the western Atlantic will effectively be shut down until it disappears.


What does this mean?
Quoting 74. wunderkidcayman:

It looks like tropical wave #4 is out over the W Africa not reach the coast yet
Tropical wave #1 moved further NW and now entering the West Caribbean
Looking on satellite as well as the forecast for us looks like a ton of rain and stormy conditions ahead more so the second half of this week/weekend going into next week
Well bring it on rain we bloody need it
Thanks.... I was wondering where that Twave had gotten to ..... hope it breaks that stability barrier y'all got going down that way ......
If it gets there by the weekend, it may impact whatever spinup we see next week .....
Quoting 97. Kyon5:


If Africa keeps producing waves this strong, don't be surprised if we see a storm out there in late June.

No dust?
Quoting 109. James1981cane:



What does this mean?


Big trough over the East. There's dry air on the backside of a trough (and ridge, for that matter), so not only would we have that, there would be an abundance of westerly shear on the south of the trough. That's why the models are latching onto development for this weekend; there's a ridge instead of a trough (as in the 2-week image I just showed).
Quoting 106. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

T - 194HRS 55 MINS TILL CANE SEASON 2016


Well when ya put it that way...
Quoting 96. 19N81W:

I am off island did we get rain?




Oh hell yes it was pouring so hard last night it almost sounded like a hail escalated time 10


Quoting 89. 882MB:

If this was August or September, I'd be worried about that one. Looks mean.




If it's kicking off tropical waves this impressive the ones that would be kicking off later in season must be monsters that create monstercanes
115. Kyon5

Quoting 111. unknowncomic:

No dust?
It all depends, really. We've seen some storms that albeit weak, have still managed to develop in dry conditions (Ex. Chantal 2013).
Quoting 89. 882MB:

If this was August or September, I'd be worried about that one. Looks mean.


May last long enough to bring much needed rain to the Caribbean.....
Quoting 110. BahaHurican:

Thanks.... I was wondering where that Twave had gotten to ..... hope it breaks that stability barrier y'all got going down that way ......
If it gets there by the weekend, it may impact whatever spinup we see next week .....


Well instability so far this year unlike last few years has been average or above average and right now it's above average

ANGRY INDIAN CAMEL DECAPITATES OWNER AFTER BEING LEFT IN SUN: An Indian man left his camel tied in a field, planning to return to it soon, but then he forgot about it while entertaining guests. After the camel had been exposed to direct sunlight for hours during a heatwave, the man remembered and returned to the camel, after which he was decapitated by the angry camel.

Link
what kind of set up do we need for large wedge tornados?
Quoting 117. wunderkidcayman:



Well instability so far this year unlike last few years has been average or above average and right now it's above average




Well at least from mid April anyway
Quoting 114. wunderkidcayman:



Oh hell yes it was pouring so hard last night it almost sounded like a hail escalated time 10




If it's kicking off tropical waves this impressive the ones that would be kicking off later in season must be monsters that create monstercanes


Where was it raining ?. Not in South Sound I can assure you.


Looks like rain and thunderstorms continue over the Central Bahamas overnight... then back to the super humid wx of earlier today....
What kind of setup do we need for decapitating camels?
Quoting 123. aquak9:

What kind of setup do we need for decapitating camels?


Do you mean for camels who decapitate ?. High heat and a careless owner.
Yes kman, thank you. I did mean camels who decapitate, not those who may decapitate said camel, or may wish to practice the art of camel decapitation.
thats what I was wondering......i smell something
Quoting 121. kmanislander:



Where was it raining ?. Not in South Sound I can assure you.
Quoting 126. 19N81W:

thats what I was wondering......i smell something

I meant to ask did you guys have a tornado on any of the Cayman islands this year? I tried to research it but nothing has come up yet...
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 926 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 926 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING AMARILLO TX - KAMA 924 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

TORNADO WARNING     LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 923 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 913 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 910 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 905 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 900 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 858 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 858 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 855 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 853 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 844 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 843 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

FLASH FLOOD WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 840 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 835 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 833 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

FLASH FLOOD WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 831 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 828 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 827 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING AMARILLO TX - KAMA 820 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 819 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 815 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 815 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

FLASH FLOOD WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 815 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING AMARILLO TX - KAMA 815 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 814 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 814 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

FLASH FLOOD WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 811 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING AMARILLO TX - KAMA 808 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 808 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 800 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 755 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 749 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

TORNADO WARNING     AMARILLO TX - KAMA 745 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 744 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 743 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING AMARILLO TX - KAMA 738 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 736 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 735 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

TORNADO WARNING     AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 735 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 735 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 734 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

TORNADO WARNING     MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
Quoting 124. kmanislander:



Do you mean for camels who decapitate ?. High heat and a careless owner.



LOL

This one rattled my House. This about 20 miles NW.
Quoting 123. aquak9:

What kind of setup do we need for decapitating camels?
anything over 49c I guess
Quoting 130. PedleyCA:


This one rattled my House. This about 20 miles NW.

when the slip comes its gonna rattle yer house and shake and roll it too




he was mad real mad in reference too the camel story
Quoting 121. kmanislander:



Where was it raining ?. Not in South Sound I can assure you.


West Bay
I heard it rained up rum point as well

Tracked it on radar clouds were moving W-WNW SS remained dry

Quoting 126. 19N81W:

thats what I was wondering......i smell something



Lol the drought is making you smell things now too eh

Anyway looking at the forecast plenty of rain (all island) this week and this weekend going into next week


I smell Caribbean tropic wx soon to come
Quoting 130. PedleyCA:


This one rattled my House. This about 20 miles NW.


3.5 is nothing wake me up when the big one hits
Quoting 54. aquak9:

One of those rare occasions where I actually agree with the old 'roidhead.
Wonder if JoeB has permission to use Levi's word, (tropical) "mischief"?
Quoting 137. Tazmanian:



3.5 is nothing wake me up when the big one hits


I doubt that you will sleep thru it Taz
Cell now in Mexico was part of the twins earlier. The one in Texas was producing a tornado and had an excellent signature. One in Mexico was very likely producing a tornado at the same time. Larger cell in Mexico eventually won out and has been a monster super cell for over three hours now. Likely produced multiple tornadoes.
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SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 1028 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 1028 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 1013 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 1010 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

TORNADO WARNING     LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 1003 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 1013 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

TORNADO WARNING     AMARILLO TX - KAMA 956 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 956 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 1010 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

FLASH FLOOD WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 956 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 954 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

TORNADO WARNING     LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 1003 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

TORNADO WARNING     AMARILLO TX - KAMA 956 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016
142. 882MB
Quoting 140. DeepSeaRising:

Cell now in Mexico was part of the twins earlier. The one in Texas was producing a tornado and had an excellent signature. One in Mexico was very likely producing a tornado at the same time. Larger cell in Mexico eventually won out and has been a monster super cell for over three hours now. Likely produced multiple tornadoes.


Look at the size of that thing.

Just an MCS.


Less than 100 hours.... It could happen...
Ok
Quoting 144. sunlinepr:



Less than 100 hours.... It could happen...

yes looks like it will become at least a invest probably nothing to worry about , Another thing to note is if you keep going at 260 hours another low forms in the carribean then moves into the south western GOM, which hints we could have a big season ahead of us
Quoting 127. washingtonian115:

I meant to ask did you guys have a tornado on any of the Cayman islands this year? I tried to research it but nothing has come up yet...


We had two so far this year one confirmed one was a waterspout
Quoting 144. sunlinepr:



Less than 100 hours.... It could happen...


I think placement is a tad bit wrong but yes it could happen but more and more runs come out and less and less GFS latches on to it however it's the opposite way around with the other models so who knows
Quoting 130. PedleyCA:


This one rattled my House. This about 20 miles NW.
Dang! I was in the Palm Springs area last week. Back to the rock that is Sacramento this week. Hopefully not a foreshock
Quoting 147. wunderkidcayman:



I think placement is a tad bit wrong but yes it could happen but more and more runs come out and less and less GFS latches on to it however it's the opposite way around with the other models so who knows


What do you mean by wrong do you think it should be further Southwest ?
Quoting 137. Tazmanian:



3.5 is nothing wake me up when the big one hits


I don't typically feel 3.5's up here either... But I can tell you that I don't like the 6's and 7's -- Much less the "big one" when it hopefully doesn't hit when I am around.
Quoting 145. James1981cane:

Ok
yes looks like it will become at least a invest probably nothing to worry about , Another thing to note is if you keep going at 260 hours another low forms in the carribean then moves into the south western GOM, which hints we could have a big season ahead of us
Who's worrying? That's excitement gleaming in people's eyes.....

The interesting thing for me about this is that the models have been taking it in to the GA - SC coast.... not a steering pattern one would want to see during the height of the season.....
152. ackee
Any one realize the euro shows two low the first that forms in 5 days less weak another low it from out of carrbbean then into the Atlantic is much stronger note cmc also hints of two low as could we see two tropical system in June that really be indicator to me 2016 could be the year many home grown storm
Quoting 152. ackee:

Any one realize the euro shows two low the first that forms in 5 days less weak another low it from out of carrbbean then into the Atlantic is much stronger note cmc also hints of two low as could we see two tropical system in June that really be indicator to me 2016 could be the year many home grown storm

Yes also NAVGEM to weaker extent shows the same as well

I agree above average to very active season with most of them being Caribbean GOM or E Coast storms
Quoting 150. Dakster:

I don't typically feel 3.5's up here either... But I can tell you that I don't like the 6's and 7's -- Much less the "big one" when it hopefully doesn't hit when I am around.
Quoting 151. BahaHurican:

Who's worrying? That's excitement gleaming in people's eyes.....

The interesting thing for me about this is that the models have been taking it in to the GA - SC coast.... not a steering pattern one would want to see during the height of the season.....

I just realized something and note this cause I think this is what the models are trying to do ok so the GFS has the area of disturbed weather to the north of the Bahamas, this area is competing with a area in the southern Bahamas the GFS forms the northern one but I think the one to the south will become stronger which means we will look for Miami for landfall of anything if at all also note the second system looks to be fully tropical on the euro
Quoting 155. James1981cane:


I just realized something and note this cause I think this is what the models are trying to do ok so the GFS has the area of disturbed weather to the north of the Bahamas, this area is competing with a area in the southern Bahamas the GFS forms the northern one but I think the one to the south will become stronger which means we will look for Miami for landfall of anything if at all also note the second system looks to be fully tropical on the euro


It's more like competing with another system in the Caribbean not southern Bahamas eventually Caribbean system moves into Bahamas yes but its origins comes from SW Caribbean
Very weak on this run. Another piece behind

On the GFS there is nothing on the Caribbean.
Lots of possibilities for next week ..... in order of probability....

- most likely, nothing happens;
- storm forms over or near The Bahamas
- system forms over WCar
- 2 tcs form, in the 2 previously mentioned locales

None of this means we will have an active season. However, if we do get 1 or 2 systems before 10 June, IMO it suggests higher than average potential IF the forecasts for ASO conditions are realized...


Quoting 157. wunderkidcayman:



It's more like competing with another system in the Caribbean not southern Bahamas eventually Caribbean system moves into Bahamas yes but its origins comes from SW Caribbean


Thanks for correcting me lol yea but I think the disturbance will be further south than anticipated
Good Morning; the Conus forecast for today: lots of rain and t-storms for the mid-section.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
413 AM EDT Tue May 24 2016

Valid 12Z Tue May 24 2016 - 12Z Thu May 26 2016

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains...

...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley...


Good morning world and all who inhabit it

And the current look and jet; I am still figuring that the most storm reports will be generated between tomorrow and Thursday when the Conus jet pushes a little further East into Texas by this evening-tomorrow morning:



And finally the storm reports from yesterday (mostly hail reports): none so far this morning. 

And will note that Washington115 reported hail at her location near DC yesterday on the blog in real-time; I believe she is confirmed with that little green dot near Maryland on the far right.......................................


yesterday Reports Graphic

today Reports Graphic

This year may mirror the 1886 hurricane season (Right Gro? You were there ) It gave us 10 hurricanes of which 7 struck the USA (not Florida-directly) and 4 were cat 3 or over. Much of the activity was in the Carib.
On the Atlantic tropical side of things will note that shear picked up a little bit in the Gulf and near Florida and that Africa (as noted below) is poised for plenty of tropical waves this season due to the nice amount of rainfall (with the peak still to come) in the Sahel this year (very green across that Central Belt of Africa and you can also see the pervasive drought region in South Africa as well):


 
This is news for the peak of the Atlantic Season: worth updating the numbers by a few storms when the August predictions come out. The cooling over the past few weeks has been pretty rapid off of South America and lends some validity to the observation of several years when the Pacific slingshots from El Nino to a La Nina in the April to August time frame.


Oh boy, here we go with the Caribbean wish casting already. If something were to develop model indicate it originating north of the Bahamas and drifting towards the SE Coast.
GEOS-5 has been a little all over about what to make of the tropical moisture. Today's run closes off a low at 81hrs. It has a hard time strengthening much or holding together. It appears to be hampered by both shear and Florida.


There it is as a small barely closed low over South Florida at 117hrs.


This is as far as it goes in the gulf of Mexico before a trough gets it, sort of stalls and rains it out on Florida and parts of the Southeast, then takes the remaining moisture Northeast.
From facebook...Mike's Weather Page...

Overnight models still sniffing tropical action this upcoming weekend... however GFS/EURO show this as a pretty weak low. Our untrusty Canadian model is of course showing more. The area to watch will be around the Bahamas sliding northward toward the SE Memorial Day weekend. A warm Gulf Stream could help development... high shear could hinder development. Something to watch for however as we near the official start date of Hurricane Season June 1st.

Quoting 165. rmbjoe1954:

This year may mirror the 1886 hurricane season (Right Gro? You were there ) It gave us 10 hurricanes of which 7 struck the USA (not Florida-directly) and 4 were cat 3 or over. Much of the activity was in the Carib.


What a year. But 2841 B.C.E was much worse.
Quoting 173. Grothar:



What a year. But 2841 B.C.E was much worse.


My thoughts through many years of research across like fifty million continents says like it will be 2005 and 2841 bc put together with three Sandys. I mean I totally have a bachelors in being a jerk.
Quoting 174. George1938:



My thoughts through many years of research across like fifty million continents says like it will be 2005 and 2841 bc put together with three Sandy's. I mean I totally have a bachelors in being a jerk.


Life was so much easier when there was one continent- Pangea-during the Paleozoic era.

If its not this year then maybe next year the caribbean will open.
Quoting 170. luvtogolf:

Oh boy, here we go with the Caribbean wish casting already. If something were to develop model indicate it originating north of the Bahamas and drifting towards the SE Coast.


Not Carib wishcasting models show system originating from the Caribbean system moves N into Central-NW Bahamas and drifts towards SE coast so that's that there is no anythingcasting to it so deal with it also some of the models show a secondary system that forms in the Caribbean
Quoting 176. washingtonian115:


If its not this year then maybe next year the caribbean will open.


This is heading towards a dangerous setup for Carib storms where there will be a phenomenal amount of energy available there and very high SSTs both there and in the Gulf. That would assist something strong from the Caribbean maintaining that strength closer to land.

Whether atmospheric conditions allow strong systems to develop is of course key but hurricanes couldn't ask for better water.
This is a sure sign of summer: this blog is overrun by the hurricane locust (iknowus betterthanyouus). It arrives almost like clockwork just before Memorial Day and persists in some form until about Halloween. In particularly active hurricane seasons this particular locust can be so persistent and loud as to completely drown out any topic not related to tropical weather. For the uninitiated and inexperienced, it is recommended that summer be spent outside enjoying the things that summer brings. For those of you who revel in the annual locust swarms, it is recommended that your computer be setup in such a way as to mitigate getting carpal tunnel from endless hours of banging out opinions as to whether or not the 3386 hour run of the GFS is accurate.
Quoting 180. tlawson48:

You sound slightly..upset?
Quoting 181. washingtonian115:

You sound slightly..upset?
LOL, yeah. It's a tropical weather blog, so there will be talk of tropical weather, especially during the hurricane season... He does have a point about the extended models though. Posting of extended-range models and saying "It's three years in the future, but it's an interesting trend" provides a lot of noise to the signal... Some of those models should be placed under "science fiction".


Lil blip in the south Caribbean.
Quoting 136. wunderkidcayman:


I smell Caribbean tropic wx soon to come
Quoting 181. washingtonian115:

You sound slightly..upset?


Not at all, I just enjoy the lunacy and try to throw some humor in for fun.
Look like we may get Bonnie by weekend.
All ingredients are slowly coming together.
Quoting 179. ProPoly:



This is heading towards a dangerous setup for Carib storms where there will be a phenomenal amount of energy available there and very high SSTs both there and in the Gulf. That would assist something strong from the Caribbean maintaining that strength closer to land.

Whether atmospheric conditions allow strong systems to develop is of course key but hurricanes couldn't ask for better water.

What do you mean by dangerous? Dangerous in what way?
Locust from Wilmington, NC reporting..

Bring on the extended model runs..

Bring on the short range model runs..

Bring on your personal hurricane knowledge

Bring on the young ones who are wanting to work in the hurricane field one day

Bring on the old timers who venture here just for the hurricane season..

Bring on your experiences from past hurricane seasons..

I myself expect to swarm just like a locust in watching every potential development while at the same time able to sit outside on my laptop and enjoy the summer..





Jesus, really?

Quoting 188. Sfloridacat5:




Quoting 173. Grothar:



What a year. But 2841 B.C.E was much worse.
How many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes were there that year and what were all the impacts to landmasses?
Quoting 180. tlawson48:

This is a sure sign of summer: this blog is overrun by the hurricane locust (iknowus betterthanyouus). It arrives almost like clockwork just before Memorial Day and persists in some form until about Halloween. In particularly active hurricane seasons this particular locust can be so persistent and loud as to completely drown out any topic not related to tropical weather. For the uninitiated and inexperienced, it is recommended that summer be spent outside enjoying the things that summer brings. For those of you who revel in the annual locust swarms, it is recommended that your computer be setup in such a way as to mitigate getting carpal tunnel from endless hours of banging out opinions as to whether or not the 3386 hour run of the GFS is accurate.


Most people looking at 3386 hour GFS integrations during hurricane season are of another winter swarming species called Snowbirds.
Quoting 173. Grothar:



What a year. But 2841 B.C.E was much worse.


Was the Noah (and every other record keeping culture) flood a convective or stratiform event?
Quoting 182. SouthTampa:

LOL, yeah. It's a tropical weather blog, so there will be talk of tropical weather, especially during the hurricane season... He does have a point about the extended models though. Posting of extended-range models and saying "It's three years in the future, but it's an interesting trend" provides a lot of noise to the signal... Some of those models should be placed under "science fiction".


Palm readers and fortunetellers have their entertainment value too.
Quoting 123. aquak9:

What kind of setup do we need for decapitating camels?


How many on this blog remember walking a mile for them first
Quoting 109. James1981cane:



What does this mean?


It means no TC landfall in NOAM during this time or a few days prior or post. It also looks
signifcantly cool for June in the East.

Earliest Snow Melt on Record Observed in Arctic

Eric Chaney
Published: May 23, 2016




Scientists at NOAA's Barrow Observatory recorded the first snowmelt on May 13, a full 10 days earlier, than ever before seen.
(NOAA)
Snow is melting in Barrow, Alaska, earlier than it ever has since scientists at NOAA’s Barrow Observatory began recording it.

Staff at the observatory reported snowmelt occurred May 13, the earliest snowmelt date in 73 years of record-keeping, beating the previous mark set in 2002 by a full 10 days.

An image of Arctic sea ice on March 24, 2016 with an orange line showing the 30-year average sea ice extent for the month of March.
(NASA)At 320 miles north of the Arctic Circle, Barrow is usually one of the last places in the United States to lose snow cover. But the early melting follows a record-setting winter that saw temperatures average more than 11 degrees above normal for the 49th State, shattering the previous record set in 2015.
On May 14, Fairbanks topped out at a record-breaking 82 degrees, surpassing the warmest readings that Lower 48 cities such as Boston, Cleveland and Denver have seen to that point in 2016.

(MORE: Arctic Sea Ice Is in Record Low Territory, Again)

According to weather.com meteorologist Brian Donegan, only two other times since 1904 has it been 82 degrees or warmer in Fairbanks that early in the season. The earliest Fairbanks ever topped 82 degrees was May 10, 1995 (84 degrees), followed by the second earliest the following day, May 11, 1995 (88 degrees).

The record temps are also taking their toll on Arctic sea ice. The annual Arctic sea ice maximum hit its lowest level ever recorded. That marks the second straight year that the winter maximum ice extent set a record low.

“I’ve never seen such a warm, crazy winter in the Arctic,” Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, told Climate Central. “The heat was relentless.”

Arctic sea ice hit its maximum extent for the winter on March 24, when it averaged 5.607 million square miles, Climate Central reports. That beat last year’s record low of 5.612 million square miles, set on Feb. 25, 2015, by 5,000 square miles or just a bit smaller than the area of Connecticut.

(MORE: Scientists Lose Crucial Tool to Record Arctic Ice Loss)

“It’s like a trainwreck you can’t look away from,” wildlife biologist George Divoky said in a NOAA release. “You never know what you’re going to see and this year’s as big a mystery as any.”
Quoting 173. Grothar:



What a year. But 2841 B.C.E was much worse.


LOL - Gro yo have WUmail
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 178. wunderkidcayman:



Not Carib wishcasting models show system originating from the Caribbean system moves N into Central-NW Bahamas and drifts towards SE coast so that's that there is no anythingcasting to it so deal with it also some of the models show a secondary system that forms in the Caribbean
GFS shows no TS anymore for now.
And our future system does not originate from the Caribbean.
Every year is the same (anticipation for the Atlantic Season) which is par for course for tropical weather enthusiasts.  What no one on here knows is a) actually how many storms will form for the season; b) how the track/steering pattern and A-B high sets ups in August-September; c) the general trof pattern for the peak period; d) whether we will be neutral or La Nina for the peak; e) whether there will be any warm eddies in the GOM; f) what the SST's will be in the Central Atlantic MDR; g) what shear will actually be between now and November in any given region (and for any given storm); h) what SAL levels will look like by August/September; h) whether an actual hurricane will enter the Caribbean from a tropical wave; i) how many hurricanes may actually form west of 50W; j) how stable or unstable the air mass in the Western Atlantic off of SA will look like; j) what speed the Central Atlantic trades are going to settle into in August and September; k) when/if any Gulf oil rigs are going to be evacuated; l) whether Hispanola is going to become the bullet bag again breaking up storms headed towards Florida and Gulf; m) whether the Catholic Grotto in Key West is going to keep hurricanes away from them again this season; n) whether Grand Caiman is going to suffer a direct hit from a Cat 5; o) whether NHC is going to blow multiple intensity and cone forecasts this year in spite of model improvements; p) whether another oil spill in the Gulf is going to bring a chance of oil-mageddon when the slicks get sucked up into a major hurricane barreling down towards New Orleans; q) whether Miami and Miami Beach are going to be destroyed from a direct hit from a major (taking down the Fountainbleu Hotel on the way towards the mainland) or  r) whether a meteorite impact or major volcanic eruption between now and October will throw a monkey wrench in the whole equation.........................................J ust Sayin.  
203. VR46L
Quoting 202. weathermanwannabe:

Every year is the same (anticipation for the Atlantic Season) which is par for course for tropical weather enthusiasts.  What no one on here knows is a) actually how many storms will form for the season; b) how the track/steering pattern and A-B high sets ups in August-September; c) the general trof pattern for the peak period; d) whether we will be neutral or La Nina for the peak; e) whether there will be any warm eddies in the GOM; f) what the SST's will be in the Central Atlantic MDR; g) what shear will actually be between now and November in any given region (and for any given storm); h) what SAL levels will look like by August/September; h) whether an actual hurricane will enter the Caribbean from a tropical wave; i) how many hurricanes may actually form west of 50W; j) how stable or unstable the air mass in the Western Atlantic off of SA will look like; j) what speed the Central Atlantic trades are going to settle into in August and September; k) when/if any Gulf oil rigs are going to be evacuated; l) whether Hispanola is going to become the bullet bag again breaking up storms headed towards Florida and Gulf; m) whether the Catholic Grotto in Key West is going to keep hurricanes away from them again this season; n) whether Grand Caiman is going to suffer a direct hit from a Cat 5; o) whether NHC is going to blow multiple intensity and cone forecasts this year in spite of model improvements; p) whether another oil spill in the Gulf is going to bring a chance of oil-mageddon when the slicks get sucked up into a major hurricane barreling down towards New Orleans; q) whether Miami and Miami Beach are going to be destroyed from a direct hit from a major (taking down the Fountainbleu Hotel on the way towards the mainland) or  r) whether a meteorite impact or major volcanic eruption between now and October will throw a monkey wrench in the whole equation.........................................J ust Sayin.  


You forgot one .... will the leeves hold ?
Quoting 203. VR46L:



You forgot one .... will the leeves hold ?


Too soon. Ten years is not long enough. But I'm working on it.