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A weather mystery solved!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:28 PM GMT on November 27, 2006

I asked for some help earlier this month to solve the mystery of where the photos below of a hail-damaged aircraft came from. Thanks to email replies I received from Chris Trott, Patty Jones, Ennien Ashbrook, and the pilot, Richard Barrieau, the mystery has been solved! The airplane was a Boeing 727-200 jet flown by Capital Cargo International Airlines (aircraft registration N708A). It took off from Calgary, Canada, and was enroute to Minneapolis the night of August 10, 2006, when it encountered large hail as it climbed from 30,000 feet to 35,000 feet in a thunderstorm over Alberta. An upper-level disturbance, in concert with a warm, moist air mass, combined to produce a large area of severe thunderstorms, including the one that damaged the unfortunate airplane. The hail damaged the airplane's windshield, nose cone, cowling on the two engines, leading edge of the right wing, lenses, and right side lights. An in-flight emergency was declared, and the the aircraft returned safely to Calgary International Airport. The landing was routine, as the pilot's windshield was undamaged and the weather was clear in Calgary. In an email I received from the pilot, he ruefully informed me that August 10 was his birthday. I think next year he should ask for the day off!

According to some of the mechanics that worked on the aircraft, the damage was mostly cosmetic. Replacement of the nose cone, windshield, cowling on the two engines and the leading edge of the right wing, plus the damaged lenses and lights only took a few days, and the plane has been back in service since September. Some erroneous information on the Internet stated that the airplane was a total loss, and that two crew members quit after they walked off the airplane; that was not the case.

The size of the hailstones the airplane hit is impossible to judge, as none of the stones penetrated the windshield and gave themselves up for examination! As the First Officer commented in a blog entry, "there was no way to measure the size of the hail much less compare it to sporting equipment." So, we'll never know if the plane hit golf ball, tennis ball, softball, or beachball sized hail.

We do know that at the ground, the thunderstorm produced at least golf ball sized hail. According to an email I received from Ennien Ashbrook, "the storm caused record damage to several communities between Red Deer and Calgary. In a couple of heavily-hit rural communities, the entire west walls of houses were completely destroyed, not even the interior drywall left standing. Damage-causing hailstorms are common here, but this one was a real record-breaker."





Hail damage to commercial passenger aircraft is rare, as modern aircraft radar and air traffic control procedures are adept at helping aircraft avoid hail-producing thunderstorms. If anyone has photos or accounts of damaging hail that has affected a commercial jet aircraft, I'd be interested to try to discover the most severe hail damage ever suffered by a commercial aircraft. Send suggestions via email or in the comments section of the blog.
One such incident occurred when hail damaged a Brazilian Airbus jet in March of this year (see photos posted by the MetSul Meteorologia Weather Center). This website also mentions two other cases of hail damage to commercial aircraft--a hailstorm over Germany that left a hole the size of a football in an Airbus plane which had more than 200 passengers on board enroute to England, and an Easyjet 737 that had an emergency landing in Geneva in 2003 after hail did extensive damage to the nose and wings of the plane.

Tropical Storm Durian
In the Western Pacific, residents of the Philippine Islands are anxiously watching Tropical Storm Durian, which is on track to hit the main island of Luzon later this week. The storm is currently suffering from reduced outflow aloft thanks to the influence of a trough to the northwest. However, the influence of this trough is expected to wane over the next 24 hours, and Durian is expected to intensify into a major typhoon. If it hits the Philippines as a major typhoon, it would be the fourth such storm to hit the islands in the past two months.


Jeff Masters

Aviation

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks dr. masters!!!
Chase on for Durian!

I will be flying to Manila tomorrow to meet up with storm chaser Geoff Mackley to report on Durian. We'll be travelling as close as we can to the landfall point. Is it gonna do a Xangsane, Cimaron and Chebi (bomb massively before landfall)? We'll have to wait and see. Updates will be posted here!
James.
Hello,it's been a long time :)
Where is everybody ?
It has rained today ^_^. First time in 125 days. Not a lot of rain however. Sadly the real news storys for So Cal will be the winds that will dry the area out and push the fire danger up. With rain totals of 0.10-0.35 inches for most areas it wont be enough to make things any better when the winds kick up. Good news winds not looking as storng but still above advisory levels.
According to the 06Z GFS, Durian won't even make landfall:

Click to enlarge
NOAA pics of the hail damage to the "737 over Europe"
Its strange that the co-pilot's windshield got plastered with hailstones, while the pilot's side appears to have escaped completely unscathed.
Posted By: yorktownwxguy at 11:12 AM EST on November 27, 2006.
Its strange that the co-pilot's windshield got plastered with hailstones, while the pilot's side appears to have escaped completely unscathed.


Crosswind
10. Inyo
We got some rain out in pasadena too but the long range models have flip flopped back to dry for what it is worth (not much). At least it is supposed to get colder
Durian - isn't that the smelly fruit? (or is it a name as well?) Does the Monsoon list have different naming standards than we have here in the west?
yes, it is the smelly fruit
Durian might be a name as well, but it is a smelly fruit. It's supposed to be as delicious as it is stinky. I love this quote:

The English novelist Anthony Burgess famously said that dining on durian is like eating vanilla custard in a latrine.

(Link to Wikipedia)
Good afternoon,

Just wanted to post this update as ENSO MODELS are predicting NEUTRAL conditions by next june to july in 2007.

CLICK HERE FOR NOVEMBER ENSO UPDATE
Looks like DURIAN has gotten better organized over the past couple of hours and its look much more symmetrical on satelitte imagery.

Here is an infrared shot...

Typhoonhunter~ Link to some local weather.. two days of breaking trees are forecasted for Legaspi City.

Track looks to have shifted slightly north after that big shift south last night.


JustSouthofEquator~ welcome back!
Close to 1.5 above normal in the 4 and 3.4 regions:

Steve that hasn't been updated yet, ya posted last weeks. You can see the updated in the weekly write up which is out.
Here's another view at the forcast track for Durian.


HEY HURRICANE23 SO WHAT DOES THAT MEAN THAT EL NINO MIGHT PERSIST UNTILL JUNE 2007 EXPLAIN TO ME PLEASE.
For those who missed it Here is the link i posted a little up in the blog as ENSO MODELS are predicting NEUTRAL conditions by june-july 2007.

NOVEMBER UPDATE
Ahhh, thank you. I see the updated one right now the 1+2 region is really going down.

GFS and NOGAPS Models for Durian:



GFS sending it north and NOGAPS sending it west into philipines, but the NOGAPS isnt updated.
ALRIGHT HURRICANE23 BUT I DONT UNDERSTAND WHAT THAT MEANS . ARE WE STILL IN EL NINO OR ITS GONNA PICK UP AROUND JANURY-MARCH.
882MB if u live in florida here are some of the affects EL NINO condtions bring.

Rainfall - Above average rainfall

Severe Weather - During El Nino the jet stream is oriented from west to east over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Northern Florida. Thus this region is most susceptible to severe weather.

Temperatures - Below normal temperatures.

Winter Storms - Increased cyclogenesis (low pressure systems) in the Gulf of Mexico.

And during hurricane season El Nino almost always reduces the frequency of storms.
882MB for more info on EL NINO or LA NINA.

VISIT HERE
The CPC says that El Nino will intensify for several more months and persist through August 2007. Link (PDF; CPC El Nino site) From the trends, it looks like this will be one of those El Ninos where the hottest water is in the central Pacific, not along South America (this can have a significant effect on El Nino-related impacts).
Most ENSO models indicate NEUTRAL condtions in june 2007.

Hey guys.
Based on that big shift in JTWC chart and that model shift poleward I will be waiting at least till the 00z warning comes out before getting on a plane. As is the nature with storm chasing nothing is ever certain until all hell is breaking loose!
Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EST on November 27, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

A non-tropical gale area located about midway between Bermuda and
the Azores is moving east-northeastward at 25 to 30 mph. However...
upper level winds are very unfavorable for this system to become a
subtropical cyclone. Additional information can be found in High
Seas Forecast issued by the ocean prediction center under WMO
header fznt01 kwbc or AWIPS header nfdhsfat1.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Tuesday.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Stewart
A non-tropical gale area located about midway between Bermuda and
the Azores is moving east-northeastward at 25 to 30 mph. However...
upper level winds are very unfavorable for this system to become a
subtropical cyclone.

LOL... Like, why even mention this? LOL
Maybe they mentioned it because their probibility map was getting over excited...
Upper-level winds are very fast in the central atlantic and significant development of any kind is highly unlikely.

Here is a visible pic of the non-tropical gale...


Noticed that the link to the JTWC on the WU tropical page is to http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html
but it has been moved to http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.html
I did not see an appropriate WU email address for a heads-up. Can someone forward this? Thanks
You can send a message to Aaron, either to WunderYakuza or aaron@wunderground.com (the latter used to be at the bottom of the blog directory but has been replaced with a link to the help center).
Thanks Michael
JMA still going for hit on central Luzon area. They have upped their max intensity forecast to 75kts now (10 min average.)
We're not. This just isn't the place for it. This is a blog about active tropical systems, not global warming. Take the debate on global warming to your own blog and debate it there.
Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone is expected in 48 hours. First name of the southwest indian ocean is Anita.
Yeah, that certainly made a comeback over last night.
The RSMC La Reunion now forecasts 93S to become a "forte tempete tropicale" with between about 45-60 knots sustained winds before landfall near Mozambique.. sounds like a strong "Tropical Storm Anita".
Physics question coming right up...give me a minute!!
physics update:

#4 Hurricanecrab...extra credit for knowing the physics term...
#5 ricderr...partial extra credit.
The Central Atlantic gale~
THE ONLY LOW PRES FEATURE IN THE DISCUSSION AREA IS
IN THE CNTRL ATLC WHERE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED
1003 MB LOW NEAR 33N48W ALONG 24N55W 21N59W THEN DISSIPATING TO
THE MONA PASSAGE. SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...ON THE E SIDE OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE SFC
BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 400 NM E AND 180 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF
28N AND WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 28N. MODELS
SHOW THE SFC LOW QUICKLY RACING TO THE NE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
SLOWLY THIN THE MOISTURE PLUME IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

$$
CANGIALOSI
They gave Durian a floater~
28/1433 UTC 12.5N 130.7E T4.0/4.0 DURIAN
28/0833 UTC 11.6N 132.2E T4.0/4.0 DURIAN
28/0233 UTC 11.4N 134.1E T3.5/3.5 DURIAN
27/2033 UTC 11.3N 135.7E T3.0/3.0 DURIAN
27/1433 UTC 10.9N 136.6E T3.0/3.0 DURIAN
Good afternoon,

Just taking a look at what is a power typhoon in the makings with Durian.Current winds are at 65kts with a central pressure of 976mb.

Infrared shot...


My guess is we will see a landfall...what ya think 23?
Nov 20, 8:02 PM EST

Blast From the Past - 1635 Hurricane

By LARRY McSHANE
Associated Press Writer

NEW YORK (AP) -- The winds whipped up to 130 mph, snapping pine trees like pick-up sticks and blowing houses into oblivion. A surge of water, 21 feet high at its crest, engulfing victims as they desperately scurried for higher ground.

The merciless storm, pounding the coast for hours with torrential sheets of rain, was like nothing ever seen before. One observer predicted the damage would linger for decades.

This wasn't New Orleans in August 2005. This was New England in August 1635, battered by what was later dubbed "The Great Colonial Hurricane" - the first major storm suffered by colonial North American settlers, just 14 years after the initial Thanksgiving celebration in Plymouth Colony.

The Puritans, after landing at Plymouth Rock, endured disease, brutal winters and battles with the natives. But their biggest test roared up the coast from the south, an unprecedented and terrifying tempest that convinced rattled residents the apocalypse was imminent.


And why not? The transplanted Europeans knew almost nothing of hurricanes, an entirely foreign phenomenon. Their fears of approaching death were reinforced when a lunar eclipse followed the natural disaster.

Once the weather cleared and the sun rose again, the few thousand residents of Plymouth and Massachusetts Bay colonies were left to rebuild and recover from a hurricane as powerful as 1938's killer Long Island Express. The 20th century hurricane killed 700 people, including 600 in New England, and left 63,000 homeless.

"The settlers easily could have packed up and gone home," said Nicholas K. Coch, a professor of geology at Queens College and one of the nation's foremost hurricane experts. "It was an extraordinary event, a major hurricane, and nearly knocked out British culture in America."

Last year, Coch used information that he collected from detailed colonial journals to reconstruct the great hurricane. The 371-year-old data was brought to Brian Jarvinen at the National Hurricane Center, where it was interpreted using the SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) computer model.


The result: The hurricane likely tracked farther west than was thought, passing over uninhabited easternmost Long Island before moving north into New England. Once clear of the colonies, it veered off into the Atlantic.

Previously, researchers had believed the hurricane missed Long Island - which always annoyed Coch.

"We started out doing this as a lark, and it turned out to be a very interesting piece of science," said Coch. "This information can be applied to any hurricane in the north. I think that's neat."

Coch said the pioneers from across the Atlantic likely endured a Category 3 hurricane, moving faster than 30 mph, with maximum winds of 130 mph and a very high storm surge - 21 feet at Buzzards Bay and 14 feet at Providence. Reports at the time said 17 American Indians were drowned, while others scaled trees to find refuge.

The storm was moving about three times as fast as the typical southern hurricane, and arrived in full bluster. Although it struck nearly four centuries ago, very specific details about the first recorded hurricane in North America were provided by the local leaders' writings.

"The documentation was better than any hurricane until the mid-1800s," said Coch. "That's a story in itself."

John Winthrop, head of the Massachusetts Bay group, recalled in his Aug. 16, 1635, entry that the winds were kicking up a full week before the hurricane.

Once it did arrive, the hurricane "blew with such violence, with abundance of rain, that it blew down many hundreds of trees, overthrew some houses, and drove the ships from their anchors," Winthrop wrote. He detailed the deaths of eight American Indians sucked under the rising water while "flying from their wigwams."

William Bradford, the leader of the Plymouth group, offered a similarly florid recounting.

"Such a mighty storm of wind and rain as none living in these parts, either English or Indian, ever saw," he wrote. "It blew down sundry houses and uncovered others ... It blew down many hundred thousands of trees, turning up the stronger by the roots and breaking the higher pine trees off in the middle."

The local crops, along with the forests and many local structures like the Aptucxet trading house on the southwest side of Cape Cod, suffered major damage. Bradford, in his account, predicted signs of the damage would endure into the next century.

So brutal was the storm that 50 years later, Increase Mather wrote simply, "I have not heard of any storm more dismal than the great hurricane which was in August 1635." His father, the Rev. Richard Mather, was aboard one of the ships nearly sunk at sea by the ferocious weather - but he survived, along with about 100 other passengers.

Others were less fortunate.

The Rev. Anthony Thacher, his cousin and their two families were headed by boat on a short swing from Ipswich to Marblehead. The fast-moving storm smashed their craft on the rocks, dooming all aboard except for the preacher and his wife, who somehow survived the storm as 21 others perished.

"Before daylight, it pleased God to send so mighty a storm as the like was never felt in New England since the English came there nor in the memories of any of the Indians," Thacher wrote in a letter home to his brother.

Thacher's Island and Avery's Rock - named for his late cousin Joseph Avery - remain as geographic reminders of the storm and its toll.

Coch said the most interesting news about the hurricane, more than 350 years later, is that storms can often follow the same track. And just a minuscule shift of the storm's movement in the area of North Carolina - "a fraction of a degree" - could send a hurricane up through Providence and right into Boston, the professor said.

"We could have a catastrophic situation with national repercussions," said Coch. "If the track of a future moves 25 miles to the west of the `Colonial Hurricane,' the dangerous right side could pass right over Boston and Providence. That's why we study old hurricanes in the Northeast."

Skyepony Right now this typhoon is under 5kts of shear which may allow futher intensification.I say its 50/50 if durian recurves but the NOGAPS has it making landfall.

Here another view at the current forcast track...


Its getting stronger!! now its 85mph.
Looks like Durian might be takeing a more southern track!



JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTER
Here's about the last 12hrs on MIMIC. Lacking just some on rhe east side to have a solid eye wall.
Indeed Skyepony i believe in the next couple of hours durian is going to have a very impressive CDO...


Luzon needs to complete preparations as this intensifying typhoon is coming right for them.

Forcast Track
Its going to be daylight in the next couple of hours and iam sure the visibles images from durian will show an eye trying to clear out.


It already has an eye:

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 NOV 2006 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 12:53:40 N Lon : 129:00:55 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 990.2mb/ 61.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.8 4.2 6.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -33.7C Cloud Region Temp : -78.0C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Link
I meant on satellite imagery....
Here comes the arctic express!

Link
Link heres the center.
You can see the eye on visible:

Here on the FNMOC site you can clearly make out the pinhole on Durian currently at 75kts...

I figured it wouldn't take long... the latest MIMIC shows the pinhole nicely. It's been hauling barely N of due west.
Pinhole eye...


The raw T# of 6.5 cooresponds to 127 kts / 146 mph, although Dvorak constraints limit the final intensity to a lower value.
I checked the raw T# when I was through here a few hours ago, it was a 3.9 then.
Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 NOV 2006 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 12:57:13 N Lon : 128:41:23 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 988.8mb/ 63.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.4mb

Center Temp : -64.4C Cloud Region Temp : -79.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

LOL... it doesn't recognize an eye now... although it is clearly defined on the IR image that it takes readings from.
I expect steady strengthing with durian into a very powerful typhoon...


That's fairly close to how it read a few hours ago, slight change to Vmax, pressure, cloud temps...it's odd...especially after the last hour's reading.
The CIMSS ADT program sometimes has trouble reading the intensity of storms that are not well-developed with a clear eye.
Wow,if this hits this will be ohh hmmm the 4
storm of this year to hit that area of the Phillipens at Cat 4 or 5, Deja Vu much guys?
Also notice the eye wall its Very Sementrical with a Small Eye on the IR i belive, It could be 90 or 95 next adivsery. Wonder how much damage is there in the NE Phillipens.
News on Reming

(UPDATE) Tropical storm Reming intensifies
Tropical storm Reming (international codename Durian) has intensified and is threatening to hit the Luzon area including Metro Manila, weather bureau PAGASA said Tuesday.

Super typhoon to hit Luzon
"If ever, this will be the third super typhoon to hit the country this year," Cruz said during a press conference at the Pagasa main office in Quezon City.


Their getting ready
There is wild damage photos of the tornadoes that hit Britain in the Very important pics gallery in Wunder Photos. That storm ended up being pretty rough over there. No injuries:) though some ponys went for a tornado ride.
Durian continue's to intensify...Winds at 90kts with central pressure at 950mb.
Durian continues to look more and more impressive on satelitte imagery...


Hmmmmmmmmm. I don't know why, but I can't post images from the Navy site. So here's a link to info on Durian.
philliesrock here is a visible from NRL...

SSD intensity bulletin:

WWPN20 KNES 282157
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRDAY WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
NOVEMBER 28 2006 2033Z
.
12.7N 129.1E T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS DURIAN (24W)
.
PAST POSITIONS...11.6N 132.2E 28/0833Z IRNIGHT
11.3N 135.7E 27/2033Z VIS/IRDAY
.
REMARKS...SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY. EYE WITH A LG SURROUND
YIELDS DT OF 5.0. MET=4.0 PT=4.5. FT BASED ON PT.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 29/0400Z.
that 80 knots is the 10 min average intensity, the JTWC might have the intensity near 90 or better.
hurricane23 how did you post that? When I try to post images from certain sites, they won't show up.
NRL has it at 90 kts:

MichaelSTL can post that, too. I don't get why it doesn't work with mine.
Did you right-click on the image and copy the address (make sure that you copy the entire address, since only part of it can be displayed)?


I got it, you have to put second part of file name too:

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc_thumbs/20061129.0056.gms-6.ircolor.24W.DURIAN.90kts.954mb.13N.128.6E. jpg

Click on properties and copy URL + the part of the name mising in URL.
Okay I'll try that. Wait...
Hmmmmm...still doesn't work
Actually, the entire URL is displayed in the Properties box; you have to select all of it (while it only shows the first part, if you click at the beginning and drag the mouse down, you will see it scroll up as all of the text is highlighted; alternatively, right-click on the URL and click on select all and then copy it).
Link

Hmmm... You are trying to post a Web page as an image, which is impossible; you need to right-click on the image and select Properties, then copy what is shown next to the Address line.
Nope. Still not working.
Hmmm So Durians A Cat 2. 3 by tommorow
I need to go now. See you all tomorrow!!!!!


Look at that forming Eye this could be a Serious Situation if it hits pouplated areas.
Phillies...if your photo does not post....please remove it!
Please use the preview post feature on the blog. It is great for seeing how your photo posts.
Durian is already almost a Cat 3... I see a very strong Cat 4 or even 5 tomorrow... In any case, the rainfall from it is likely to be far worse than the winds, especially if it stalls over the Philippines.
Yeah, Michael....but it has to keep that track and intensity....good luck on your prediction.
Looks very impressive on satelitte imagery this evening and if Durian continues to futher intensify futher which is looking very likely i think were looking at wide-spread damage from severe winds and extremely heavy rains.

Rainfall rate averaged over the last 3 hrs according to TRMM.
I doubt that it will cause much wind damage; right before Cimaron hit, a Dvorak intensity bulletin rated it at T7.5 (180 mph) and suggested that it was stronger (T8.0; 195 mph) but it was constrained to 7.5 by Dvorak rules. Damage? $9 million dollars; a miniscule fraction of what Tropical Breeze Ernesto caused...
Those folks have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Right Michael....and just last week the GFDL had 95L crossing over to the Pacific as a Cat 3 or better!
wind field..The light blue is ~60kts

Credit MatLab
click pic to enlarge
940 hPa reading for Durian.. near 110 knots. (not exactly sure)
According to this, 940 mb is about 100-105 kts.
Durian has become much symetrical over the past couple of hours...


Has grown a lot in the last update.

18 GMT 11/25/06 8.6N 145.6E 35 Tropical Depression
00 GMT 11/26/06 9.2N 144.4E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 11/26/06 9.7N 142.8E 40 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 11/26/06 9.2N 144.4E 40 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 11/26/06 9.7N 142.8E 40 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 11/26/06 10.1N 141.8E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 11/26/06 10.6N 140.5E 50 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 11/27/06 10.6N 140.5E 50 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 11/27/06 10.8N 139.4E 50 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 11/27/06 10.7N 138.3E 50 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 11/27/06 10.7N 137.7E 60 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 11/27/06 11.0N 136.7E 65 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 11/28/06 11.0N 136.7E 65 Tropical Storm
00 GMT 11/28/06 11.4N 134.9E 65 Tropical Storm
06 GMT 11/28/06 11.9N 133.2E 70 Tropical Storm
12 GMT 11/28/06 12.2N 131.7E 75 Category 1
18 GMT 11/28/06 12.6N 130.0E 85 Category 1
18 GMT 11/29/06 12.6N 130.0E 85 Category 1
00 GMT 11/29/06 13.0N 128.6E 105 Category 2
125. TX
87 degrees in TX ahhhh im sweating just walking to my classes
Webcam from Puerto Galera, Philippines. It's a little south of Manila.
What a beautiful but dangerous looking storm... At least it looks small to me, any of you agree?

Latest forcast track...


OLR anomalies....






Please explain OLR anomalies?
I have absolutely no idea what OLR anomalies are....please explain?
Wishcasterboy....You posted this .....please explain?
I just think some young guy that knows nothing about weather posted that animation. That's what I think!
anomalous outgoing long wave radiation for five-day periods. Contour interval is 15 W m-2 . Anomalies are departures from the 1979-1995 base period. Negative (positive) OLR anomalies indicate enhanced (suppressed) convection


Someone explain how this relates to right now? Please.
It's more Global Warming crap again.....that's what that is!
Well I was going to ask a question about this animation, but considering you are here to mock every question I ask. It would be futile to even try in your presence.
Is there anybody here besides Randrewl?
You would be correct. Don't post what you can't back up.
It was a question not a statement.
I do tire of this, but I will not scare away.
OK...what is the question?
What is the question....I tire of this!
The question please!
Your question is really....is Randrew really here!
I know this is a time line of underwater wavelengths, but what is the scientific use of this?
I do not honestly know. You posted it. You should know.
Bring it on? No I refuse to engage in your useless grudge against me.
No grudge boy...I don't know.
It was a question not a comment.
I'll be out for a bit.
I can't work with stuff like this. It is not important to me.
That does not matter to me, the question was not intended for you.
Posted By: Randrewl at 7:00 AM GMT on November 29, 2006.

I can't work with stuff like this. It is not important to me.


Bad response to a serious question that was not intended for the likes of you.
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 NOV 2006 Time : 053300 UTC
Lat : 13:07:39 N Lon : 127:11:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 954.0mb/102.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.5 5.9 7.5

Durian is already a cat.5
Here's this. Looks like the end.





DURIAN is undergoing explosive deepening. I've just been on the phone to Geoff Mackley who is on his way to the landfall zone. I will post more updates as I get them.
James.
Who the heck is Geoff?
Whooooooo....Geoff!
well nice to see everyone getting along.....LOL
Durian.....Water Vapor shot.






We all love you too Fish!
I dropped you a small bomb today Fish. Maybe you already had that one?
lol yea saw your post...... know all about it but, hmmmmmm don't buy into all of it
but I will say this if they can control weather then the hold the golden key for global warming LOL
LOL...Maybe that is part of the problem Fish. That will bend your brain!
pop into the chatroom cause we are not supposed to be off topic in the doc's blog
I am never off topic here...I'm there.
Durian.






CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 932.6mb/122.2kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.3 6.4 7.6
176. IKE
There are some who post on here that need to be banned. Way over the line.

1 more day and the Atlantic/east PAC hurricane seasons are over.

Look at this Thing A CAT 5 later today, right now winds 145!
Hello. I'm new here and from the Philippines.
Current storm status Typhoon (JMA)
Category 5 typhoon (1-minute mean)
As of: 0900 UTC November 29, 2006
Location: 13.2N 126.8E
370 nm east-southeast of Manila
Winds: 100 kt (185 km/h, 115 mph) sustained (10-minute mean)
125 kt (230 km/h, 145 mph) sustained (1-minute mean)
gusting to 150 kt (280 km/h, 175 mph)
Pressure: 920 hPa
Movement: West at 10 kt
See more detailed information.

this is the latest that i'd seen because our national weather bureau website is currently unavailable.
Thanks for the Update.Welcome to the Blogs.Were here to support you any way we can.Is the forecasted track still the same?
Okay..Thanks for the Link..I see the shift is south towards the Population centers.Are there evacs orders for them?..
We here in New Orleans,and America..know your anxiety is building.We sure appreciate your insight.Your perspective and reports will be invaluble as the Threat approaches.Were with ya.100%
Yeah. Evacuation in the areas of:

Southern Luzon
Metro Manila
Central Luzon
Eastern Visayas

Right now the Philippines is on hightened alert for possible flashfloods, mudslides and storm surges.

Government Offices and Schools were already cancelled late afternoon.

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # FOUR (4)
Now In Effect: CATANDUANES.


PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
Now In Effect: ALBAY, CAMARINES PROVINCES & POLILLO ISLAND.


PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: SORSOGON, BURIAS IS., QUEZON, AURORA & NORTHERN SAMAR

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: REST OF SAMAR, ISABELA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, ZAMBALES, BATAAN, CAVITE, RIZAL, LAGUNA, BATANGAS, ROMBLON, BILIRAN, MASBATE, MARINDUQUE, MINDORO ORIENTAL, LUBANG IS. & METRO MANILA

as of 5 pm
Thats good news..The Manila region looks to be in the Path.Can you give us the sense of the Publics mood?Are they responding to the threat in a concerned manner,..or many still waiting?
Thanks for the update please keep us posted.
Good morning,

Takeing a look at Durian this morning and its winds are up to 145mph!with the central pressure at 904mb.


Morning guys....hey Crab.
Good morning Pat
Godd morning Rand
6.9 / 918.2mb/137.4kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.9 6.6 6.6
I just looked at Duriun on the sattelite it is definately getting stronger.
I like that Godd morning thing Crab!
How ya doing today?
Hey..Good Morning to Jackson County!
Doing good Rand just working on next years evac plans and updating shelter plans.lol
If durian does not begin to weaken soon we are looking at wide-spread damage from this category 4 typhoon.
How is the Cresent City this am?
That cdo is getting higher, colder and more structure .
Springlike sandcrab.Waiting for the clash of the Air masses tommorrow...
23 from what I am seeing it looks like its going to hit as a 5
We know 23.

Crab.....keep working man. Hopefully next season will be even weaker than this one.
Once again the Filipinos face the threat.Hopefully it will remain a small core storm..and the impacts will be confined .
Very cymetrical indeed...


Yeah I know Pat I am having a phone com with NWS at 10am to get an update on what type of storms may effect us later.
Wheres Skyepony..he has the PI links galore!..Yo Skye!
Well, you guys have a good day....this is not my blog.
This is a large storm I am afraid it is going to hit them hard.
Great..pass me aWU on what ya hear..Thats good deal.The focus here is on the Cold after.I think the local mets forget about the T-storms and focus on After passage temps.Kinda screwy I think.
Were ya going Rand?
Whats up Rand..stick around..we need ya dude.
heres a site on the Phlipines "www.typhoon.ph/"
Pat I will send a WU to ya after the con.
Be back in a bit gotta make a meeting with Red Cross.
I'm up...wow. I knew this was gonna bomb lastnight, just really needed sleep...135kts, 904mbs. Track shifted south too, right over Manila.
Thanks crab..appreciate that.
No, nobody needs me here. This is not the Atlantic Basin guys.
Skye is here now.....morning neighbor! I was just on your blog.
I'm not seeing those pressures Skye. What I have is 918mb.
The damage estimates look grim this morning. Scroll down to below the storm to the interactive mapping for it. Zoom in..pretty wide path of severe damage. Changing to surge mode, has increased since lastnight, up to 13 to 15 ft in some spots.
This is the third time Pagasa has had to be on extreme alert after cimaron and chebi.
Morning nieghbor! I's pretty happy about that rain:)

Pressure & all was from the navy site.
Well....God help them....I still see roofing company ads on television here!
Dvorak says different....but what does it matter. It's not good is it?
Typhoon (JMA)
Category 4 typhoon (1-minute mean)
As of: 1200 UTC November 29, 2006
Location: 13.3N 126.4E
As of 0900 UTC: 370 nm east-southeast of Manila
Winds: 105 kt (195 km/h, 120 mph) sustained (10-minute mean)
135 kt (250 km/h, 155 mph) sustained (1-minute mean)
gusting to 165 kt (305 km/h, 190 mph)
Pressure: 915 hPa
Movement: West at 8 kt
See more detailed information.

source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pacific_typhoon_season#Typhoon_Durian_.28Reming.29
The Taz storm!






aspiringstat~ What part of the Philippines are you in?
Southern Part of Metro Manila

Here's the chart with the T# strengths...remember to us the NW pacific collum.
see you guyz tomorrow if there's still electricity on our place.
Oh..So your under evacuation? Going? We tend to watch the traffic cam from there. Best of luck to you & yours.
230. wjc4
Dr. Masters: The registration is actually N708AA (2 "A"s, for American Airlines, which owned it before it was converted to a freighter and sold). Pictures of it in more pristine form can be found on sites like www.airliners.net For example, a photo may be found at the following link to airliners.net:
Link