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A weakening Bill generating a major wave event for Bermuda and the U.S. coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:29 PM GMT on August 21, 2009

Wind shear and dry air are weakening Hurricane Bill, which may no longer be a major hurricane. However, the hurricane is still large enough and strong enough that it will generate a major wave event for much of the Western Atlantic. Visible and infrared satellite imagery show that the hurricane is no longer as symmetric as it once was, with a squashed oval shape to its cloud pattern. Upper-level cirrus clouds are restricted on the storm's southwest side, indicating that upper-level winds from the southwest are shearing the storm. The University of Wisconsin CIMSS wind shear analysis shows about 10 - 15 knots of southwesterly wind shear impacting Bill. Satellite intensity estimates of Bill's strength show essentially no change since 2am EDT this morning, and Bill is at the borderline of becoming a Category 2 hurricane. There are currently no Hurricane Hunter aircraft in Bill, and the next mission is scheduled for 2pm EDT this afternoon.

Wind shear is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next two days, and it is possible Bill may see a relaxation of the wind shear affecting it, allowing some re-intensification today. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will be plenty warm today, as Bill traverses a region of ocean with SSTs near 29°C. Total ocean heat content is steadily declining, though, as the warm waters Bill is currently traversing do not extend to great depth. By Saturday, SSTs decline to 27.5°C, and intensification becomes less likely.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at from Friday morning 8/21/09. Bill had an oval shape, and was missing upper-level cirrus clouds on the southwest side, indicating that wind shear from strong upper-level southwesterly winds was affecting it.

The computer model track forecasts for Bill have been very consistent the past two days, giving confidence that the trough of low pressure developing along the U.S. East Coast this weekend will turn Bill to the north then northeast as expected. Both Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Canada can expect tropical storm conditions from Bill, which should be rapidly weakening on Sunday afternoon when it makes its closest pass to Nova Scotia. Category 1 hurricane conditions are possible on Nova Scotia if Bill makes a direct hit there. Cape Cod and eastern Maine may receive sustained winds of 35 mph from Bill, just below tropical storm force, but the chance of a direct hit by Bill are slim.

Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill is generating huge waves, thanks to its enormous size and major hurricane intensity. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 50 feet by Saturday. Large swells from Bill have reached Bermuda, and are generating waves of 10 - 20 feet in the offshore waters. The Bermuda Weather Service predicts seas will increase to 20 - 30 feet on Saturday as Bill makes its closest approach to the island.

In the U.S., Bill's swells will reach New York's Long Island on this afternoon, and seas will build to 7 - 10' on Saturday and 12 - 16' on Sunday in the near shore waters. By tonight, Bill's swells will be affecting the entire U.S. East Coast from Florida to Maine. Maximum sea heights in near shore waters over the weekend will be about 6 - 8' from Florida to South Carolina, 11 - 14' along the North Carolina coast, 8 - 11' along the mid-Atlantic coast, and 11 - 14' along the coast of Maine. The highest waves along the U.S. coast will occur at Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where waves of 18 - 23' are being forecast by NOAA for Sunday. Bill's high waves will likely cause millions of dollars in coastal erosion damage and create very dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions along the coast.

CloudSat slices through Bill
The CloudSat satellite, launched in 2006, carries the first satellite-based millimeter wavelength cloud radar. It is the world's most sensitive cloud-profiling radar, more than 1000 times more sensitive than current weather radars. It collects data about the vertical structure of clouds, including the quantities of liquid water and ice, and how clouds affect the amount of sunlight and terrestrial radiation that passes through the atmosphere. The satellite has a narrow field of view, so can image only a small portion of the planet each day. About once per year, CloudSat happens to slice through the eye of an Atlantic hurricane. This happened Wednesday, when CloudSat caught a remarkable view of Hurricane Bill (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Top: conventional 89 GHz microwave "radar in space" image of Hurricane Bill on Wednesday, 8/19/09, from the AMSR-E instrument on the Aqua spacecraft. Bottom: cross section through Bill's eye taken at the same time from the CloudSat cloud radar instrument. The CloudSat pass occurs along the red line in the top image. The CloudSat pass runs from south (left side of CloudSat image) to north (right side of CloudSat image). At the time of the image, Hurricane Bill was strengthening into a Category 4 hurricane (135 knot winds, 947 mb pressure), while completing an eyewall replacement cycle. In the 89 GHz Microwave image, half of the eyewall is already completed (half red circle on right side of the image). In the CloudSat image, the southern eyewall shows weak echoes at the low levels, and slopes outward with height. The northern eyewall is much more intense, and a core of high reflectivity echoes extends high into the troposphere, to 16 km altitude, forming a "hot tower". These "hot towers" a characteristic of intensifying hurricanes. Interestingly, the hot tower is tilted into the eye, so that the eyewall does not slope outward with height along the northern eyewall. This is not the typical behavior of a hurricane, and may be due to the unusual strength of the hot tower. Cirrus clouds with a base at 8.5 km can be seen to the south of the hurricane in the CloudSat image. The thin grey line at 5 km marks the 0°C temperature line. Ice particles falling inside the hurricane melt at an altitude just below the 0°C line, creating a "bright band" of orange echoes throughout most of the hurricane. Image credit: NASA/Colorado State University.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. The GFS model calls for a tropical cyclone to develop just off the coast of Africa about seven days from now.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting kmanislander:


Gilbert came from there in 1988. Need I say more ??
You just made me feel a whole lot better. LOL
Bill heaviest rain bands remain offshore for now

1003. Relix
Quoting kmanislander:


The models take the 32W wave to just East of the Bahamas but as usual before something forms the models are nearly useless on track and intensity.


It's too weak at the moment to be caught in a through. The high should close soon as well.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Isn't this about where Dolly came through and hung around for a few days before moving towards the NW Caribbean ?


Dolly was on again off again from quite a ways out. Gilbert spun up quite quickly.

Quoting klaatuborada:


Of course! I agree! Just haven't heard anything but High Surf expected, and reading Dr. Master's post today stating, "millions in damage". This gets my alarm bells going. If they call evacuate, great, I'd just like to understand what's coming.
If you live close to the water for safetys(?) sake go further inland. Kman can tell you in the area he lives in a lot of homes are still not repaired since Ivan. Water went right through them and gutted them so I wouldn't take any unnecessary risks.
Quoting Patrap:


The Meet and Greet is Tonight @ 7 here,the Rising Tide 4 Conference is Tomorrow..


Interesting Patrick.
Have you requested a grant?
Just completed a grantwriting class at UCF toward my graduate level, certificate in public administration. I have some grantwriting guides I saved that I can share with you. Grants are terrific and there are a lot more foundations out there than you can imagine that want to contribute to causes they support.
Dolly was not actually classified as a tropical cyclone until reaching the Western Caribbean but looked and behaved like one long before then.
Quoting kmanislander:


Dolly was on again off again from quite a ways out. Gilbert spun up quite quickly.

That's what I am afraid of. Development when it is closing in on the Caribbean and not much time to prepare. My husband had back surgery in June and had 2 steel rods put in and can't help put up shutters. Thank goodness I live in the one district that still helps each other out.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
That's what I am afraid of. Development when it is closing in on the Caribbean and not much time to prepare. My husband had back surgery in June and had 2 steel rods put in and can't help put up shutters. Thank goodness I live in the one district that still helps each other out.


East Enders are tight. I come from there LOL
Hope I got your district right but truth is Caymanians come together quickly in the face of a hurricane threat.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
If you live close to the water for safetys(?) sake go further inland. Kman can tell you in the area he lives in a lot of homes are still not repaired since Ivan. Water went right through them and gutted them so I wouldn't take any unnecessary risks.


My house is 2 miles away from south facing beach. You can see how close my work is. It's 6 feet away from south facing beach. I had people taking things off the floor, papers and such and putting up high today. Will tomorrow as well. Emptying bottom drawers and putting everything up, business files, etc. If call to evacuate, lots of people will be in their cars when worst hits, on the road, as access off is awful just when there's regular traffic. I hope this doesn't become a nightmare.


The legend doesn't show but you can see it at

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/nem.html?map=wave#map


This indicates that the offshore islands will provide some mitigation of the waves.
Quoting kmanislander:
Dolly was not actually classified as a tropical cyclone until reaching the Western Caribbean but looked and behaved like one long before then.
I know. We had some pretty gusty winds up here and torrential rain. No power for about 6-8 hours.
Quoting TexasHurricane:
8:00 PM AST Fri Aug 21
Location: 30.2°N 67.0°W
Max sustained: 105 mph
Moving: NNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 954 mb

Now I'm really confused. Writing coordinates that go from 32N 64W to 30.2N 67W...
I'm having a hard time believing the Caribbean will ever open up to development. For a third consecutive month, shear remains above normal.
Quoting kmanislander:


East Enders are tight. I come from there LOL
A few years ago when we were at work and went on TS warning my husbands boat was anchored off the EE graveyard. By the time we got home some guys swam the boat to the ramp and it was in our yard.
Quoting klaatuborada:


My house is 2 miles away from south facing beach. You can see how close my work is. It's 6 feet away from south facing beach. I had people taking things off the floor, papers and such and putting up high today. Will tomorrow as well. Emptying bottom drawers and putting everything up, business files, etc. If call to evacuate, lots of people will be in their cars when worst hits, on the road, as access off is awful just when there's regular traffic. I hope this doesn't become a nightmare.


Why are you blogging? You may want to consider packing and leaving...it prevents nightmares...local authorities are far more qualified than anyone here...
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


The legend doesn't show but you can see it at

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/nem.html?map=wave#map


Shoot! That makes it look like we're dodging a big bullet, not that 6 - 8 foot waves aren't bad, but I think I just might sleep tonight!
Quoting presslord:


Why are you blogging? You may want to consider packing and leaving...it prevents nightmares...local authorities are far more qualified than anyone here...
.If she is in a low lying area I would move further inland too. In Cayman surge from Ivan went in at least 4 miles or maybe more I don't really know.
klaatuborda,
haven't investigated this site but you might learn more here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutpsurge.shtml
Link
Here is the 36 hour download of the latest NAM. Still developing that low and showing it here on Sunday.

let's do some simple math...6 ft from shore...2 feet above sea level....12-18 ft waves....

Hhhhhhmmmmm.....
Quoting presslord:


Why are you blogging? You may want to consider packing and leaving...it prevents nightmares...local authorities are far more qualified than anyone here...


Because no one believes anything is really going to happen but some "good surf". If I'm over-reacting, fine! Just trying to make sense of all the information. They haven't called for an evac yet, and if they do, I'm outta here! Otherwise, have to work and pay the bills.
Quoting StormW:
Just a quick drop in. Getting ready to watch a movie with my youngest.

Good to see ya kman!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS /HURRICANE BILL/ AUG 21, 2009 ISSUED 12:05 P.M.


Storm....... nice to see you dropping in on a Friday evening... Enjoy the movie

Quoting kmanislander:
Here is the 36 hour download of the latest NAM. Still developing that low and showing it here on Sunday.

Would that be day after tomorrow Sunday ? Please say NO.
Maybe not as updated as having someone eyeball the sat pics, but I love this page

Tropical Storm Position Page (NOAA/Sat)

Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
22/0000 UTC 13.5N 134.5W T2.0/2.0 92E -- East Pacific
21/2345 UTC 30.2N 67.1W T5.0/5.0 BILL -- Atlantic
21/2030 UTC 22.9N 156.9E T5.5/6.5 VAMCO -- West Pacific
21/1800 UTC 13.5N 133.8W T2.0/2.0 92E -- East Pacific
21/1745 UTC 28.6N 66.5W T4.5/5.0 BILL -- Atlantic
How can they predict a cat 3 Bill has done nothing but weaken in the past day why would it start now?
Quoting klaatuborada:
For me the scariest thing was to read Dr. Masters warning about Cape Cod, and there's been silence from all televisions/radio/state authorities re: storm surge.

So that's what I'm looking for. Any info on what's coming ashore - are we looking at 18' waves? 9' waves? in a place that usually gets 2' waves?


Watch all the info available, but just my personal philosophy, always prepare for the worst and hope for the best (I know cliche). Living in Florida, I have prepared for so many storms that never came close but I don't regret a minute of the time and energy involved. I even evacuated to a hotel with my dog for Andrew and the palm trees barely swayed (I lived on the West Coast but on a barrier island) but I would do it again. Personally, looking at that photo you posted, I wouldn't be in that building when the seas started picking up. Probably safe enough but why take the chance and you can never protect property with your life. Fast moving water is an extremely dangerous enemy.
kinda funny two storms my family remembers that never hit us are Flyod and Gilbet. They both gave us some guesy winds although flyod was much strongerhere in Sfl gilbert muchtly gave us 20mph winds wih some rain and flyod gave us 35+ mph guests
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Would that be day after tomorrow Sunday ? Please say NO.


Sorry but yes, this Sunday the 23rd. However all the other runs kept it down in the SW Caribbean so just something to watch for the time being.
Here in Bermuda.. and the showers have eased up but the wind is still kicking. Big gusts but nothing too crazy. The biggest worry are the waves. We still have some hours to go and although the local radar looks good I still think there are a couple of bands to go through. 2 more high tides also.
48 hrs, New England and Canada takes a coastal beating

KEH...How're the tides treating y'all on the peninsula?
klaatuborda, here is a list of storm surge products found on the Tropical/hurricane page of Dr. Master's blog.
Storm Surge info

Texas SLOSH model maps
FEMA
Floridadisaster.org
South Carolina surge maps (NOAA/NWS)

Here's the link. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
Link
Scroll down to the bottom for storm surge info.
Quoting presslord:
KEH...How're the tides treating y'all on the peninsula?
We are fine, tonight. I guess most of the tidal surge will be tomorrow, right? Times like this, it is nice to be on the third floor :)
1036. GatorWX
Wow, dry air really took its toll on old Bill today!
Quoting kmanislander:


Sorry but yes, this Sunday the 23rd. However all the other runs kept it down in the SW Caribbean so just something to watch for the time being.


It has been persistant and has become more aggressive with each run, hope it stays south!
Quoting kmanislander:


Sorry but yes, this Sunday the 23rd. However all the other runs kept it down in the SW Caribbean so just something to watch for the time being.
Ok. Thanks but they always tend to curve this way for some reason so whenever they come into the Caribbean I make sure to keep my eyes and ears open.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
We are fine, tonight. I guess most of the tidal surge will be tomorrow, right? Times like this, it is nice to be on the third floor :)


lemme know if I need to bring you anything in my Wrangler....
1040. 900MB
Quoting klaatuborada:


8'-12' along immediate coast. That REALLY worries me. We're flat here on the Cod. Just to show you I'm going to post where I've been working. The water in the background is the bay side. Cape Cod has buildings like this all along it's southern and eastern sides.



Do we think this is getting wiped out? Opinions please. I have to put kids to bed. Will be back in 15. I will read all posts re:this. Extremely urgent and I thank everyone. I need to give good information to people I care about. Thanks.

These guys at Ocean Club West in T&C saw the very worst of hurricane seasons last year and did just fine. The resort reminds me of yours. You may have some beach erosion and a salt water pool, but my gut tells me that you will be just fine. The weaker hurricane fading east helps. BTW, this resort was awesome, what a beach!
I can't upload the pic for whatever reason, so here is the link, check beach/resort pic
well 1 1/2 high tides..
Tomorrow tides at Custom House

03:55AM LDT -0.5 L 10:11AM LDT 6.3 H 04:18PM LDT -0.4 L 10:26PM LDT 6.3 H


How about you Press. How close to the creek are ya.
Hurricane Watch
Updated: 10:00 pm Friday, August 21, 2009
Tropical Storm Warning
Updated: 10:00 pm Friday, August 21, 2009
For Bermuda
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Tomorrow tides at Custom House

03:55AM LDT -0.5 L 10:11AM LDT 6.3 H 04:18PM LDT -0.4 L 10:26PM LDT 6.3 H


How about you Press. How close to the creek are ya.


'bout 100 ft....but we're elevated another 10'...damned snakes are runnin' though....saw 3 in the yard tonight...
Quoting klaatuborada:


My house is 2 miles away from south facing beach. You can see how close my work is. It's 6 feet away from south facing beach. I had people taking things off the floor, papers and such and putting up high today. Will tomorrow as well. Emptying bottom drawers and putting everything up, business files, etc. If call to evacuate, lots of people will be in their cars when worst hits, on the road, as access off is awful just when there's regular traffic. I hope this doesn't become a nightmare.


Luckily surge (how much the ocean rises up) should only be 6inches.

They are waves, they will beat the shore but not far in. Erosion at the beach, in worth of sand, will be millions. Open ocean facing on the beach, places like your work may get pretty unsafe. Waves can wash under foundations built up against the beach.
New England

Bill moving NNE near 20 mph near mean tide as a cat 1 storm could produce storm tide (not wave height) on the order of 3 ft.

Lots of energy, stll looks to be imbedded in the ITCZ...

Bill's:
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...30.2N 67.0W

Longitude 67 W

My estimation is that 11pm the Longitude will
NOT be higher than 67.3 W

...seems to be moving just a very little West of North
1049. aquak9
thanks skye. You're a doll, read my mind. You can ignore the wu-mail.
Oooo! I found this site! It's excellent! Just what I was looking for. Looks like we've dodged bullet. This I think we can handle. Will have to watch it though. Thanks everyone, I think I'll be able to sleep some tonight!!

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/boxMarineWeek.php?page=1&element=WaveHeight
...so Aqua.....Things could get pretty geckoed up, huh?
Bill becomes a warm seclusion near the end of its life

Quoting klaatuborada:
Oooo! I found this site! , I think I'll be able to sleep some tonight!!

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/boxMarineWeek.php?page=1&element=WaveHeight



..yes the protection provided by Nantucket and the Vineyard is what makes the difference.
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2009

...BILL MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
TO BERMUDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED ON SATURDAY FOR NOVA SCOTIA AND
NEWFOUNDLAND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 180 MILES...
295 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 545 MILES...880 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. A WEATHER STATION AT COMMISSIONERS POINT ON
BERMUDA...AT AN ELEVATION OF 250 FEET...RECENTLY REPORTED A
10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...98 KM/HR...WITH A GUST OF 97
MPH...156 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS INDICATED THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG
THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA...AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...31.0N 67.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


----------
*67.5 = small serving of crow for me...
Friday Night Earth Related Entertainment:

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Likely to be TD 11-E at 11.


The convection near Trinidad remains about the same, 32 W wave flaring up right now.
you are a tool sir.

Quoting Chiggy007:
People are starting to talk some real JUNK on here now!!
BILL is of no interest to anyone now apart from Bermudians,a nd how many Bremudians are on here?? Not MANY!! :)

So, to those who are literate on tropical weather, what do you guys think about the new AOI in east ATL, around 32W - 12N??
Quoting presslord:


'bout 100 ft....but we're elevated another 10'...damned snakes are runnin' though....saw 3 in the yard tonight...


Yikes - I hate snakes. One of the good things about Hugo, is that I did not see a snake in my yard for a couple of years afterwards (living on James Island at the time)

As to downtown flooding with high tides - I use Lockwood and Broad for the most part, and do not have too much difficulty with the astronomical tides or high tide with rain. Not driving my car through salt water, if I can avoid it! - Been there.
"Tool" is an underused word...
1060. aquak9
I'm busy pleein' a fifth again, Press...
Quoting aquak9:
I'm busy pleein' a fifth again, Press...


As well you should be! ; )
1047. unless my eyes decieve me the ictz disturbance may be consolidatding.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



..yes the protection provided by Nantucket and the Vineyard is what makes the difference.


Well, my thanks to the Glaciers 16,000 to 20,000 years ago. Great job!
1064. MZV
Bill is starting to look sloppy and extratropical to me... It's really pretty unusual for category 4 hurricanes to form in the open Atlantic. They're usually Carribbean/Gulf events. Once they get north of Georgia they begin weakening.
wow. A WEATHER STATION AT COMMISSIONERS POINT ON
BERMUDA...AT AN ELEVATION OF 250 FEET...RECENTLY REPORTED A
10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...98 KM/HR...WITH A GUST OF 97
MPH...156 KM/HR.
Is Bill moving west now?
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...31.0N 67.5W
Quoting Chicklit:
Is Bill moving west now?
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...31.0N 67.5W



AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST
Quoting Vortex95:
1047. unless my eyes decieve me the ictz disturbance may be consolidatding.


Looks that way, may get interesting in the future!
and the trend is still on the rise.

Quoting THUNDERPR:
wow. A WEATHER STATION AT COMMISSIONERS POINT ON
BERMUDA...AT AN ELEVATION OF 250 FEET...RECENTLY REPORTED A
10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...98 KM/HR...WITH A GUST OF 97
MPH...156 KM/HR.
Is anyone from Bermuda with us tonight?
Definitely flaring up right now (35W feature)....if this is a trend, things could get interesting this weekend. Another are worth keeping an eye on, mentioned multiple times by kman, is an area of convection near Trinidad which the NAM (and the NOGAPS earlier, dont know if it still does) forecast a tropical system to form east of Nicaragua early next week. The NAM first initializes the low on Sunday.
Yup.
00z NAM @ 84hrs ...

Yes.

Quoting KEHCharleston:
Is anyone from Bermuda with us tonight?
gittyup1 are you in bermuda?
30-40W and about 12N, right? that is our area of interest?



EDITED: I LINKED THE GRAPHIC TO A LARGER ONE.
Quoting InTheCone:
00z NAM @ 84hrs ...



Looks like the NAM takes it into Central America, but I do know the NOGAPS earlier took the cyclone and shot it through the Yucatan channel and into the GOM....cringes....
Quoting gittyup1:
Yes.

How goes it?
1080. centex
Taking about bermuda last night did not go over well.
Quoting AllStar17:


Looks like the NAM takes it into Central America, but I do know the NOGAPS earlier took the cyclone and shot it through the Yucatan channel and into the GOM....cringes....


The NAM has been hanging on to this for several runs, we'll just have to wait and see if it ever comes to be, then what it might do, if anything.
1082. BtnTx
Quoting Chicklit:
Friday Night Earth Related Entertainment:

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wow extremely low quality audio on my computer my ears are bleeding!
Sorry Thunder & KEHCharleston- the quote function isn't working to well.

It's not too bad. Still some strong gusts but the rain has stopped for now. I think we will catch some more downpours and it looks like the wind is only increasing based on the local AWOS. It is really a wave thing that will have the biggest impact here.
1084. BDAwx
I wanted to be in Bermuda today to make me worry less but I'm in PA on business
don't like being away from the home during a storm ya know... Ya never know what could happen and then your not there for the clean up... Oh boy...
Quoting gittyup1:
Sorry Thunder & KEHCharleston- the quote function isn't working to well.

It's not too bad. Still some strong gusts but the rain has stopped for now. I think we will catch some more downpours and it looks like the wind is only increasing based on the local AWOS. It is really a wave thing that will have the biggest impact here.
Thanks for the update. Thoughts are with you, tonight. Stay safe.

Good night, folks.
thanks for the information gittyup1 be safe.
Quoting BtnTx:

wow extremely low quality audio on my computer my ears are bleeding!

Sorry Tx :(
We used to listen to music through transistor radios. Maybe even before the 8-track cartridge.
Goodnight Charleston. Yeah, me too.
1088. centex
Goes to show all those who only rely on models and NHC don't add anything. What is the point if you only repeat? Why discuss anything if the NHC is god.
My thoughts and prayers to all in Berrmuda - be safe all.

Hope it's a reasonably quiet night.

God Bless.
Quoting Chicklit:

Sorry Tx :(
We used to listen to music through transistor radios.

worse yet...8 tracks...
1091. BtnTx
Quoting Chicklit:

Sorry Tx :(
We used to listen to music through transistor radios.

No Problems
Thank you! and the best to all. Don't worry BDAwx-so far just like one of those freak winter storms. Power is still on...so that's a good sign.
All in Bermuda - stay safe tonight
Bill is due east of us now. 820 miles away. Swells not very high, 5 feet or so, but they have the longest periods I've ever seen here--up to 19 seconds.
Looks like a huge cluster of T Storm activity about to push out over the W African Coast
1098. BDAwx
Quoting gittyup1:
Thank you! and the best to all. Don't worry BDAwx-so far just like one of those freak winter storms. Power is still on...so that's a good sign.
Quoting iceman55:
Link

9:40pm unsubstantiated reports of a Tornado near Berry Hill area. Also reports that some are now without power and some boats/docks already damaged.

So far so good at my place



ok thanks for that... How would you compare this so far with the storm we had in february the 16th I think it was?
Quoting AllStar17:


Looks like the NAM takes it into Central America, but I do know the NOGAPS earlier took the cyclone and shot it through the Yucatan channel and into the GOM....cringes....

GFS has been hinting at a low there for a few days now, just not resolving it well enough to spin it up.
1100. centex
I've been wrong all week. I see bill going N and my direction has never been official track.
Evening All! I see we may have a new invest soon.
BDAwx- oh it's worse. The water is crazy! So I'm not surprised to hear about the boats from Iceman. But it's more about the gusts than any constant wind or rain. We still have 12+hours to go and I hope the folks on the northshore coast are ready come tomorrow morning.
1104. Patrap
yes and things here on the blog are picking back up has far has talks gos on storms
Evening all, especially to my Bermudian fellow-bloggers. Hope u guys are staying safe through the stormy night. (And whys it that that whatever bad part there is seems to come at night?)

Quoting BDAwx:
I wanted to be in Bermuda today to make me worry less but I'm in PA on business
don't like being away from the home during a storm ya know... Ya never know what could happen and then your not there for the clean up... Oh boy...
This must be the pits. I'd hate to be away from home when a storm strikes, for the reasons u mentioned.



1109. Patrap
Now to bring the crazies back in here...

The 90 hour forecast from GFS sure looks like it is trying to develop a mystery low and bring it into middle Florida (somewhat like middle Earth, but different) from the east. Not saying it will happen, but is possible we get a shorty.


That has to be one of the most epic troughs I've seen in summer, a Cat 4 just getting devastated. This is a thing of beauty. My heart and prayers are with Bermuda.
1112. centex
It will be heading east by morning.
I think Ol'Bill is starting to make his turn up and out of here and those in the NE..
1114. Patrap
Hello Bill.

atmosaggie, that's most interesting, that deep wave. Our local weather discussions didn't mention it--will be interesting to see if the models have that feature tomorrow.
1117. BDAwx
ok well I'm on the north side of a hill so I'm not quite sure if I've still got power becuase of the way that the lines in the area are set up and I haven't had strong winds from the east since the lines were reinforced but the house is generally sheltered from the south yes north shore does need to be prepared in the morning. That could include me I'm pretty exposed to the north and west
Quoting Patrap:

You get any of the bad ones today Pat?
First time in 3 years I could just hear the boomers from my office-fortress.
Never heard anything weather-related from down there...well not anything else, either.
1119. centex
Point is NS is ok, turning out to sea. While this may be accurate forecast it's not paid for by your tax dollars. It's only a hobby for me so go figure.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
atmosaggie, that's most interesting, that deep wave. Our local weather discussions didn't mention it--will be interesting to see if the models have that feature tomorrow.

Just looking at the 12 Z GFS, it did the same, but developed it a little more and bounce it off the trough as a weak TS, by GFS under-forecast standards.

12 UTC GFS at 120 hours:
I hear you. My house is on Grape Bay, I'm "inland" in Devonshire now. Pretty sure things will be a mess when I get back there in the AM.
Quoting BDAwx:
ok well I'm on the north side of a hill so I'm not quite sure if I've still got power becuase of the way that the lines in the area are set up and I haven't had strong winds from the east since the lines were reinforced but the house is generally sheltered from the south yes north shore does need to be prepared in the morning. That could include me I'm pretty exposed to the north and west
Invest coming soon at 35W also look at the ITCZ anyone thing the Uplift of MJO has anything to do with this increased activity in the ITCZ.

1124. Patrap
The Cold fronts western drape will have to be monitored for possible GOM Development.
1125. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:

You get any of the bad ones today Pat?
First time in 3 years I could just hear the boomers from my office-fortress.
Never heard anything weather-related from down there...well not anything else, either.


Was some real Boomers here,but the Downpours were sporadic Uptown.
1126. Patrap
Quoting TampaSpin:
Invest coming soon at 35W also look at the ITCZ anyone thing the Uplift of MJO has anything to do with this increased activity in the ITCZ.


Certainly. Well, really just came back in our domain. I really hope the GFS is wrong about this, but has done fairly well lately.


This is the plot StormW was swearing on here about a couple of days ago. That is big spike. Our A B & C storms came on a rather small spike, comparatively.
I saw that KMYS got 3.35" of rain.
1129. centex
Quoting Patrap:
Still dry central texas.
Pressure really not falling much at Bermuda, but they really are getting strong winds! The east side of Bill is far reaching and nasty.
MJO stays around for at least the next 2 weeks and beyond....Tropics will be busy.....JUST THE WAY IT WORKS!

Quoting Patrap:
The Cold fronts western drape will have to be monitored for possible GOM Development.

I actually heard a PhD tropical met say that very thing earlier today. Seriously.
Quoting TampaSpin:
MJO stays around for at least the next 2 weeks and beyond....Tropics will be busy.....JUST THE WAY IT WORKS!


And just about everyone, myself included thought we would have a couple of quiet weeks. Wrong again (as long as the GFS isn't completely full of it).
1135. Patrap
025
fxus64 klix 220215
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
915 PM CDT Friday Aug 21 2009


Update...
..sounding discussion...


No problems with the flight this evening. The sounding tonight is
interesting to say the least as it shows an extremely strong
inversion between 1000 and 3000 feet. This is rather hard to
believe as we sit with broken clouds at 1800 and another broken
deck at 2500. A couple of decent thunderstorms sit just off to our
west and north and are moving towards the Slidell area. After
reviewing the data and having quite a lengthy discussion about it
we can only assume that the sounding would look much different if
taken again even though there seemed to be no problems with the
data. Looking around at the neighboring offices...our sounding
sticks out like a Sore Thumb which only leads to further
questioning of it. Wind data seems on par with light and variable
winds throughout the sounding.


98/so


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 411 PM CDT Friday Aug 21 2009/


Short term...
very tropical airmass interacting with approaching middle level
trough and surface cold front...and right entrance region of upper
jet has caused explosive development of thunderstorms today with
prolific lightning...strong wind gusts...and locally very heavy
rainfall. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into
this evening then shift towards coastal areas overnight as the
cold front pushes into the forecast area. Locally heavy rainfall
and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible
through evening...especially over the coastal waters and over
inland areas that have heated up this afternoon.


Saturday...the cold front will push through coastal sections in
the morning then clear the outer coastal waters during the
afternoon as the deep middle level trough takes residence over the
eastern Continental U.S.. have included a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms along the coast and south of Lake Pontchartrain in
the morning. Much drier air will surge south into the forecast
area from north to south during the day on Saturday and it will be
noticeably less humid despite hot temperatures reaching the lower
90s for highs. Cooler air will be felt Saturday night and Sunday.
This airmass will not be as cool as the record setting cool
temperatures that gave Baton Rouge six consecutive record lows in
middle August 2004...however...near record setting lows in the lower
to middle 60s will be common along and north of I-12 and across south
Mississippi Saturday night and Sunday night. 850 mb temperatures
are forecast to be in the middle teens Sunday which will only support
highs in the middle to upper 80s.


Long term...
the middle/upper trough will lift out over the northeast...but a
shear axis/narrow trough axis will linger near the central Gulf
Coast region Monday then break off as a weak cut-off low near the
western Gulf Coast area Tuesday and Wednesday. The dry airmass
will keep the forecast dry Monday and Tuesday before low level
moisture works back in from the Gulf on Wednesday. Have maintained
a slight chance of diurnal showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and
Thursday.


The middle level low or a weak trough will linger near the west Gulf
Coast region Friday and Saturday with gradually deeper tropical
moisture returning to the central Gulf Coast region. Have raised
the probability of precipitation to chance category for diurnal convection Friday into
next Saturday.


22/dew point
Well the Gulf of Mexico is so warm now, and we are entering the peak of the season...it seems to me that any old frontal boundary that has a few days to fester in the Gulf of Mexico is an obvious threat.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I actually heard a PhD tropical met say that very thing earlier today. Seriously.


I posted the same thing last nite and actually spoke of it in my Tropical update from this morning.
Have anyone noticed this massive wave coming off the coast of africa?
1139. Patrap
Central Atlantic IR Loop

78 hours from 00 UTC GFS (the current run) does it again. Wonder if we (or at least Florida) won't get another taste of a TS...

Quoting TampaSpin:


I posted the same thing last nite and actually spoke of it in my Tropical update from this morning.

That would be where he got it. (just teasing ya, here)
juniormeteorologist I noticed that too. The storm cluster is impressive. I think it's a bit too far north to make it all the way across--but it certainly could develop in the meantime!
1146. Patrap
Had a Great time here tonight and met a few Local NOLA Bloggers from Humid City who Helped spread the word on the portlight wundermission Last Sept.



Tomorrow is the Rising Tide 4 Conference here


Wunderblogger WetBankGuy

hello

wild night in bermuda!!!!!

gotto wear the CycloneOz suit tonight. Thank goodness...a tree limb crahed down on me. I'm okay...hit my helmet and shoulder pads!! It wasn't a really big limg, but it was big enough to crack my head. Helmet saved me big time. Got incredible in-yo0ur-face footage!!!

Had to come h0ome for a break!

50 knot gust 20 minutes ago...not much rain...but seas very big...e3ven inland.

Going back out there in an hour.

It's incredible being here today!!!

CycloneOz---

Quoting Patrap:
Central Atlantic IR Loop


I say, my dear boy, that looks like it may want to take on a life of it's own.
Quoting CycloneOz:
hello

wild night in bermuda!!!!!

gotto wear the CycloneOz suit tonight. Thank goodness...a tree limb crahed down on me. I'm okay...hit my helmet and shoulder pads!! It wasn't a really big limg, but it was big enough to crack my head. Helmet saved me big time. Got incredible in-yo0ur-face footage!!!

Had to come h0ome for a break!

50 knot gust 20 minutes ago...not much rain...but seas very big...e3ven inland.

Going back out there in an hour.

It's incredible being here today!!!

CycloneOz---



Guess Bill ain't no fish eh ROFL, I look forward to your HD videos Oz they're amazing! :)
I was going to bed, but I'm going to look at that
Quoting atmoaggie:
78 hours from 00 UTC GFS (the current run) does it again. Wonder if we (or at least Florida) won't get another taste of a TS...



I'd love to see the 96 or 120 hour map--when I
try to get it--nothing comes up. I gotta hit the sack and see what it says in morning :)
Quoting atmoaggie:

I actually heard a PhD tropical met say that very thing earlier today. Seriously.


Yep, you always have to watch what goes into the GOM. That was a very strong complex of storms that went through Houston earlier. If that front stalls out in the Gulf we will have to watch it very carefully. Alicia and Humberto come to mind.
can someone tell me more about the mystery low to hit mid florida maybe show me a graph that a new learner can understand please?
i am blogging from front p0orch. wifi hot spot here only. the wind is wicked wild and rain is splattering my cpu.

must go in now. got out of suit. sitting here half naked.

i got footage tonight of a huge wave climbing a bluff on the atlantic. the wave went right up to the house at the top. that's just one thing. got meeuch much more!

see ya'll later. can't take this weather anymore with0out the suit! wow...strong sustained gusts every few seconds.

bill is a you-know-what!

cannot imagine what the eyewall is like!
hi guy s so whats up I see that we will have our next invest by late tonight or in the morning
I'm surprised no one has pulled up this old gem....

1156. JLPR
a little to the north of the low but the convection is expanding so in the morning it should look good

wow, i know that theyve been saying that Bill is a less impressive these days, but gee, that is one large cloud field...
Quoting Goaskalice:
Good Evening all,
Not so bad in Bermuda at the moment, windy but nothing more than we are used to in a winter gale. A few dips in the power so I am living dangerously by not shutting down.
For those that were into ants and their activity posting comments a few days ago. Lots of random ants in the house today! Made me nuts!
what were they saying about ants? very interested to know
We talked a lot about animal signs last year....
should be some pretty serious waves here on the SC coast tomorrow. going to spent the day watching the surfers in Pawleys Island
On the Twave at 35W and the one just popping off Africa, some of us started looking at them on Monday or Tuesday night (forget which one, now). Actually, I think it was WS who pointed to these AEWs and asked "what's that"... more or less. But I know that futuremet was mentioning them Tuesday night and saying they might be worth watching.

The one that's coming off now was looking impressive back over Nigeria / Ghana, but I'm not always convinced these ones last over the open waters. I'm starting to get interested in what's going to happen with the AB high once Bill has gone through. He sure is "bustin' a hole" therein.....
bump
1166. KimD
Quoting BahaHurican:
bump


You're not alone, I just don't know enough to contribute!
I can't believe it's this quiet in here tonight..... there were more pple on the blog on nights when there were no storms and no prospects earlier this season!.... lol
I'm here....been catching up. Had to do my Jillian workout. Man is that hard....

I'm going to hang on to see the 2 a.m., then I'm headed to bed...
guys a anticyclone is developing over Pre-91L ( it is 91 or 92 I kinda lost count)
1171. jipmg
So if we get these tropical lows to form, into Depressions, they would follow Bill or get sheered apart right
All Iggy's removed. It's always intereting to see how long it takes for them to re-appear on my list!! I hope it takes forever!!
Quoting jipmg:
So if we get these tropical lows to form, into Depressions, they would follow Bill or get sheered apart right

nope if any was to develop it would move west west west
Quoting TexasHurricane:
I'm here....been catching up. Had to do my Jillian workout. Man is that hard....



I "GOOGLED" Jillian. WOW!.
1175. jipmg
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

nope if any was to develop it would move west west west


I see, but there is alot of North easterly shear ahead of our little low, you think when it gets in that area, the environment would be more condusive or will we have another CHRIS?
1176. Story
Quoting uptxcoast:


Yep, you always have to watch what goes into the GOM. That was a very strong complex of storms that went through Houston earlier. If that front stalls out in the Gulf we will have to watch it very carefully. Alicia and Humberto come to mind.


Yup. Am watching the portion over land right now from CC. Looks like the land portion is losing steam on its way down. Doggone I was hoping for at least a few drops...
1178. JLPR
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys a anticyclone is developing over Pre-91L ( it is 91 or 92 I kinda lost count)


that would be 92L =P
and the anticlone has been there for awhile
Quoting PortABeachBum:


I "GOOGLED" Jillian. WOW!.


If you mean "wow" as in it looks hard, IT IS!!
NOGAPS forecast doesn't develop systems off Africa..guess we'll see...
Quoting jipmg:


I see, but there is alot of North easterly shear ahead of our little low, you think when it gets in that area, the environment would be more condusive or will we have another CHRIS?

well that anticyclone will keep the shear low and its over this (91L or 92L sorry I lost count )


1183. XL
I was in here briefly earlier this evening and saw some discussion about possible development in the Caribbean. I apologise but I don't know enough to look at charts and radar etc. Can anyone update me on the current situation?

TIA
Quoting TexasHurricane:


If you mean "wow" as in it looks hard, IT IS!!
I am familliar with Julian as in MJO but what is Jillian??
Quoting JLPR:


that would be 92L =P
and the anticlone has been there for awhile

thanks so (PRE-INVEST 92L)
1186. JLPR
Quoting XL:
I was in here briefly earlier this evening and saw some discussion about possible development in the Caribbean. I apologise but I don't know enough to look at charts and radar etc. Can anyone update me on the current situation?

TIA


yep
One of the models, the NAM is developing the tropical wave that is currently east of the Lesser Antilles, currently the wave is embedded in the ITCZ but once it enters the Caribbean it should be watched for development.
But right now, nothing imminent.

Quoting PortABeachBum:
I am familliar with Julian as in MJO but what is Jillian??


Jillian is a fitness trainer. I have a couple of her exercise DVD's and they are hard!

Gotta stay in shape in case I have to run away from any hurricanes... :)
It looks to me like the Nogaps developes the first wave send it to Fl. The one in the caribbean as a hurricane? ON the Yucatan.
Link
Quoting homelesswanderer:
It looks to me like the Nogaps developes the first wave send it to Fl. The one in the caribbean as a hurricane? ON the Yucatan.
Link


Everytime I try to view these navy links I get this...

There is a problem with this website's security certificate. Why does it say that??
Quoting JLPR:


yep
One of the models, the NAM is developing the tropical wave that is currently east of the Lesser Antilles, currently the wave is embedded in the ITCZ but once it enters the Caribbean it should be watched for development.
But right now, nothing imminent.

NAM IN NOT A FORECAST MODEL FOR THE TROPICS KEEP THIS IN MIND WHEN LOOKING AT THEM
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Everytime I try to view these navy links I get this...

There is a problem with this website's security certificate. Why does it say that??


If it gives you the option to eneter the website anyway (not recommended) something like that just click it. has something to do with the navy.
1192. JLPR
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

NAM IN NOT A FORECAST MODEL FORE THE TROPICS KEEP THIS IN MIND WHEN LOOKING AT THEM


no need for the CAPS = Yelling + the bold =\
also the NGP wants a low out of the wave
...its a wait and see situation...
since all of the models develop imaginary storms every now and then xD
Quoting homelesswanderer:
It looks to me like the Nogaps developes the first wave send it to Fl. The one in the caribbean as a hurricane? ON the Yucatan.
Link


are these accurate? I wonder where that one on the Yucatan would go?
hey

just got back from taping more bill.

Got cool footage of what can only be described as a malestrom!!

on a break. winds still growing stronger. gusts to hurricane force or just below. It is really awe inspiring.

back with another report later.
Quoting TexasHurricane:


are these accurate? I wonder where that one on the Yucatan would go?


Well the good thing is 99% of the time none of them are accurate more than a few days out. Even then they can't pinpoint it just give a pretty good idea where it may go. The NHC didn't think Ike would reach the upper Tx coast until the 11th. So its just keep an eye on it for now.
1196. JLPR


and now I go to bed xD
goodnight everyone
Remember, I believe it was either the NAM or the NOGAPS that predicted Claudette when no other model did.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Well the good thing is 99% of the time none of them are accurate more than a few days out. Even then they can't pinpoint it just give a pretty good idea where it may go. The NHC didn't think Ike would reach the upper Tx coast until the 11th. So its just keep an eye on it for now.


Ok, thanks...
1199. SaoFeng
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. A WEATHER STATION AT COMMISSIONERS POINT ON
BERMUDA...AT AN ELEVATION OF 250 FEET...RECENTLY REPORTED A
10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 61 MPH...98 KM/HR...WITH A GUST OF 97
MPH...156 KM/HR.
I remember that Teddy. I think it was the NAM but you're right coulda been the NOGAPS. Lol. Sorry memory goes with age. :)

Your welcome Tex. :)
Wow. Sao. Bermudas getting some wind! Are you there?
1202. SaoFeng
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Wow. Sao. Bermudas getting some wind! Are you there?


Nope... just looking out for them
1203. pilatus
The eye definitely reformed somewhere to the NW over the past few hours. Still NNW but turning N soon.

11pm 31.00 67.50
2am 32.20 68.20
1204. SaoFeng
Just to let you all know... Halifax, a city on the direct path, is about the size of Corpus Christi, Texas. remember them and all the people in the maritime provinces of canada
2:00 AM AST Sat Aug 22
Location: 32.2°N 68.2°W
Max sustained: 105 mph
Moving: NNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Yes. Looks like they're in for a rocky night. I'm glad it didn't hit the head on.
1207. pilatus
I think there's some worries that the unexpected N jump and W shift over the past 3 hours may put Bill closer to Halifax... Still not expecting a landfall there but every mile closer to land means stronger winds. The trees in Nova Scotia are in for another battering I guess...
I was thinking about Canada and her fisherman earlier. Hope they're all in safe harbor for the duration. Is Bill ever going to hit cooler water and weaken? I don't even know the SSTS that far north. Hope he weakens even farther.
Nite all...

Be back tomorrow to see how Bill is doing (hopefully stil weakening) and to see if we have any more new AOI...
Quoting Patrap:


Was some real Boomers here,but the Downpours were sporadic Uptown.


Was on Old Metairie Rd. today around 1:30. Torrential rain and street flooding, even on the ridge.
35W will be an Invest by the 11am update tomorrow. It has very good Convergence in the lower levels and Divergence aloft with an anticylone over it. Shear is ok and SST's are warm. Meaning it's take off time!



Quoting pilatus:
The eye definitely reformed somewhere to the NW over the past few hours. Still NNW but turning N soon.

11pm 31.00 67.50
2am 32.20 68.20


Yes, I didn't think that Cold front would move quite that fast.
Good nite anyone still up and kicking...
Quoting NOLA2005:


Was on Old Metairie Rd. today around 1:30. Torrential rain and street flooding, even on the ridge.


Was in Hammond Today and it poured for about an hour but that was it. Heading back to the city and looked like it was going to just storm but only had drizzle.
Ok Stupid question from someone who know nothing about weather other then when the government tells you to leave the you leave. Why do they call it an Invest at the beginning?
Wow..Bill jumped West some during Blackout....New England is getting closer....Notice how Bill has flattened out to its North. That is not good meaning it feels HIGH Pressure to its North yet.....

Quoting nolacane2009:
Ok Stupid question from someone who know nothing about weather other then when the government tells you to leave the you leave. Why do they call it an Invest at the beginning?


I believe it is because the Meteorologists at NHC are making it official that they are Investing their time, effort and attention to the issue... However I may be completely wrong, haha
1218. 789
Quoting TampaSpin:
Good nite anyone still up and kicking...
thanks not many awake nice info on invest
Tampa you're right, now Bill's heading straight for Nue Yawk Sittay, Omigosh,
run for the Pocanoes...
Quoting archer312:


I believe it is because the Meteorologists at NHC are making it official that they are Investing their time, effort and attention to the issue... However I may be completely wrong, haha


Starts generating MOdel runs....which is basically what you said.....time and effort.
1221. 789
what might the results be 1216
But seriously TJ, on Bill's jog to the Left, is it just a Jog like most Hurr's do, or do you think the storm is not responding to the Trof coming in from the NW? I thought Bill would be turning N and even maybe NE by morning...??
Sorry about the silliness a moment ago on NYC, just my Friday night beer talking...
1223. 789
New yawk Sitty !
Quoting 789:
what might the results be 1216


The New England area could have a rude awakening tomorrow......It appears Bill is making its own environment...pumping hot air and creating its own high to the north......Notice how the Trough has retreated some to the north meaning High pressure has built back in some.......NOT GOOD if im correct.
Tampa, I know some really Large canes do make their own weather so to speak, but I thought Bill was now reduced in potency and over cooler water so he could not do that any longer, is there a Threshold for this sort of phenomenon, and is it sheer Size of the system or maybe Strength, or what variables apply???
Hi again, here for yet another night shift. Anywho, wanted to add that the satellite did that the past few nights after it popped back on. The first few frames after were weird and glitchy so I wouldn't sound the alarm just yet. =)
1227. 789
Quoting TampaSpin:


The New England area could have a rude awakening tomorrow......It appears Bill is making its own environment...pumping hot air and creating its own high to the north......Notice how the Trough has retreated some to the north meaning High pressure has built back in some.......NOT GOOD if im correct.
thanks for your response
HOlly CRAp im correct the new steering maps are out ......
Tampa, where are the new Steering Maps available, which are you speaking of?
And, are you putting them up on your
Super Excellent Blog Site That Everybody Should Visit For All The Latest Cane Info Available On The Net Bar None...
(that plug will cost you Five Pesos, TJ)
1230. 789
This time i think bill is building not falling apart yet
Notice the 2 steering maps and how the current one has now got high pressure built in to Bills north......HOLLY CRAP

Current map


-3hours ago..
HOLLY CRAP there is a diffined move now to the WEST. New England is diffently under the gun now.
TampaS, can you post the Earlier Steering maps so we can compare with the new ones?
But he was looking all shoddy again! Such drama these hurricanes. Never really can let your guard down I guess.

If it were to change course does anyone know what time frame it would reach the N.E. coast?
1235. pilatus
On shortwave at 2.15am, I can a small eye around 32.20 68.10, which is consistent with the NHC 2pm update.
FL Canuck, did you move to FL so you could experience Hurricanes first hand? We here in FL sometimes wish we were in Canada, haha.
But then, my cousins in Ottawa would not have any family in FL to visit and thaw out in January...
Bill is heading WEST guys.......there is no doubt in my mind....i just looked at all layers of steering look at this one.....

Current


-3hrs
1238. sfla82
Quoting TampaSpin:
35W will be an Invest by the 11am update tomorrow. It has very good Convergence in the lower levels and Divergence aloft with an anticylone over it. Shear is ok and SST's are warm. Meaning it's take off time!





Looking nice but even if it does develop it will be a fish too!
Hey Pilatus, is that name for a PC-12 aircraft? nice bird...
TampaS, which is the Most Influential Steering Layer for canes, at which altitude, or millibars, or whichever specification applies?
500 millibars maybe?
Archer312-
Lol, the opposite actually. I grew up in FL and then moved to Canada 3 years ago. I've had my fill of hurricanes which include Andrew, Charlie, Jean, and Frances. I like the experience of hurricane season from afar, much less stressful! The fiance though is a born and bred "Canuck" and he wants to move to Florida, go figure. =)
Quoting archer312:
TampaS, which is the Most Influential Steering Layer for canes, at which altitude, or millibars, or whichever specification applies?
500 millibars maybe?


The 2am update have winds at 105mph....that would have a 300-850mb TC MSLP/Vmax: 950-969mb/90-112kts
1243. jpritch
Whoa! Just checked back in to look at the after-blackout satellite images and Bill sure has a lot of room to go West.
Well then FL Canuck, all I can say is,
I hope you are not in Halifax! Good luck to those fine folks there, and now apparently good luck to those in Maine too, it seems....
This is the steering flow for Bill......i went back 6 hours and here is the MAPS......CRAP

Current


-6 hrs ago...
Quoting jpritch:
Whoa! Just checked back in to look at the after-blackout satellite images and Bill sure has a lot of room to go West.


JP this thing is going WEST....I'm very convinced of it.....
Nope, I'm in Ontario so I'm nicely insulated by lots of land. My fiance's family is scattered around Atlantic Canada though, mostly in Newfoundland and New Brunswick so we are keeping a close eye.

More on topic, I always wondered what the storm surge potential would be with a high tide like they get in the Bay of Fundy.
I still haven't seen the models update yet, but let's put it this way. Today in New England we are expecting a heavy rain/thunderstorm event because the front has stalled just west of the area. According to our local weather maps, this front is not going to clear my area of New England (southern/Connecticut) until about mid day Sunday. Yet, Hurricane Bill is supposed to reach this latitude by late tomorrow night... which is BEFORE the front is now expected to even reach the coasts. What does this mean for the Hurricane? well it means at least a little more westerly track, and if it was to take a big enough jog to the west it actually COULD be sucked right up into some part of New England before the front is able to push it away. This front has been slowing more and more in the models since early in the week. Wednesday Night the area was suppose to start feeling the effects of the front on Thursday.... Thursday comes and all the convection is still around the great lakes! Friday comes and we had some HUGE storms, but all from a pre-frontal trough the front still out to the west. Today the front is stalled still to the west. The trend is slower with the front and trough. The real kicker won't be until the front and the Hurricane meet up. No matter what the result, forecasting this Hurricane was a near-disaster in many respects. So many people jumped the gun calling it a "fish storm." Just because it ends up being a fish storm doesn't justify calling it that 6 days in advance, no matter what the models say. A few days ago, this storm was suppose to past thousands of miles to the east of New England.... now only a few hundred miles. Watch all the fools applaud their "accurate forecast" lmao. What if the whole scenario was a thousand miles to the west in the first place? A mistake like this would have left us with less than 48 hours to prepare. Thanks, but no thanks. The forecast was an epic fail in regards of the first trough, a partial fail with the second. Seriously, what about watching Hurricane Bill makes anybody more confident that a storm won't be called a fishy then end up striking? The only good thing about the whole thing is that Bill will PROBABLY miss the US.... but it won't be like that every time. One of these days people are going to scream FISH FISH, and then OOPS my bad, 6 days later the Hurricane hits New England. We still haven't learned from our mistakes of the past, have we? This being said, the people on this web site have done a great job keeping updated.... but I find it was the people who wrote in this blog who had the storm right on.... all those TV guys let everyone's guard down WAY too fast.... fact is, you shouldn't let your guard down until the thing actually turns NORTHEAST.... NNW approaching a slowing and/or stalled trough is not a 100% miss. I hope I never see such foolishness in the mainstream weather community again. It wasn't all that long ago that entire coastlines were kept on guard until the 100% positive all-clear. We need to get back to that.
I hope no one wakes up to a surprise hurricane. Take it from me even a 90mph one is no fun. YIPE! They have a floater on our unnumbered invest.
Tampa, do I read those Steering Flow maps correctly, looks like my 92 year old aunt Eleanor on Cape Cod is not going to have a nice weekend then, that is pretty scary, she lives alone, as you say, CRAP... !Where do you think Bill is going given your new data.
(don't you Hate questions like that?, sorry)
Wow FL Canuck, you are right, the tides range about 40 feet in the Bay of Fundy, don't they? with a 15 foot surge, plus wave action, that would be Incredible
Quoting archer312:
Tampa, do I read those Steering Flow maps correctly, looks like my 92 year old aunt Eleanor on Cape Cod is not going to have a nice weekend then, that is pretty scary, she lives alone, as you say, CRAP... !Where do you think Bill is going given your new data.
(don't you Hate questions like that?, sorry)


NEW ENGLAND bullseye and maybe even further South than that.....looking at the steering maps.
I need to go to bed but, i'm going to wait for the new satellite update....I hope those folks took some prepartions for this thing...NO POWER IS NO FUN
24

48

72

pre-invest 92L
1255. skook
Has anyone ever heard of the "idea" or whichever side has more convection, the storm will move?



I just had the WC on, nothing on a change of path, the satellite loop they used was old tho.
The Satellite just updated and another jog to the WEST just occured again.....OMG....THIS IS NOT GOOD
I gotta agree we never learn from our mistakes and not just track wise, sadly enough. :( What is a little surprising to me is that people are surprised that the track wasn't right ten, seven, five, whatever many days ahead. It usually is wrong. Sad but true. Not all of us were calling this a fish. And not all of us have stopped watching it, and worrying for those in its way. I would hope everyone in the northeast is still watching this. But they may not be if their mets are sounding the all clear. I know how that is too. :(
1258. skook
Quoting homelesswanderer:
I gotta agree we never learn from our mistakes and not just track wise, sadly enough. :( What is a little surprising to me is that people are surprised that the track wasn't right ten, seven, five, whatever many days ahead. It usually is wrong. Sad but true. Not all of us were calling this a fish. And not all of us have stopped watching it, and worrying for those in its way. I would hope everyone in the northeast is still watching this. But they may not be if their mets are sounding the all clear. I know how that is too. :(




agreed
THEY point the direction they are going......BILL is pointing straight at NEW England......Alright if had relatives that live in that area i would call them this very second......ASAP. KEEP in mind NewE sets right on the 70W line...BiLL is almost there now at 68W with no sign of even coming close to a move to the East. Its going to New England.
1261. pilatus
0715 pic, where is the eye? I'm inclined towards 32.50 68.45 which is sort of consistent with Tampa's W shift, given that an hour ago the eye was clearly visible at 32.20 68.10.


Thanks for staying up TampaSpins, we need somebody with experience and knowledge on the blog now, this seems to be a Significant change in track developing maybe, kinda Scary for those of us with family in possible danger now, or those of us in those regions under the gun
PILATUS, are you a flyer, is your blog name from the Pilatus PC-12 aircraft?
1264. pilatus
hey archer sorry to disappoint you no im not a flyer. my pilatus is named after mt pilatus in switzerland. vnice place to visit :)
Archer -
Yeah, it would be a crazy thing to behold. I was trying to google info on a Fundy storm surge earlier today but I didn't find much before I had to leave for work.

To Tampa and everyone discussing a change toward New England -
Can you explain what has altered to change the path? I am new to this and trying to understand.
hi guys sitting here in southeastern mass just woke up to see the same thing on the steering maps im just your avg weather geek still learning stuff so how much do we put into the steering map
Quoting skook:




Models are great... but this could be a sad case... Maybe its just a jog, but the maps tampa posted and the sat, doesnt look good


I know doesn't look good. On the other satellite it looks like ts about to hit its next tropical point. So lets hope it was a temporary jog. If it stays on the points its moving NNW again. Come on trough blow through NE already.
Guys im not a MET but, i think a have a pretty good understanding of many things. I may be wrong but, the trough has not moved one bit EAST or South.....its not moved for a reason..it hit the HIGH Pressure that built back in to the NORTH of BILL......I SURE HOPE I'M WRONG with this guys.
Quoting floridiancanuck:
Archer -
Yeah, it would be a crazy thing to behold. I was trying to google info on a Fundy storm surge earlier today but I didn't find much before I had to leave for work.

To Tampa and everyone discussing a change toward New England -
Can you explain what has altered to change the path? I am new to this and trying to understand.


HIGH PRESSURE has built in to the North of BILL more than likely Bill doing it himself by venting out hot air and creating its own High to its North and enforcing the High to the EAST of Bill...
the other thing you dont see are any of the clouds to the nw part of the storm being pushed eastward
not sure good or bad but now they have a low on the front over va im looking at the water vapor
Another Satellite update will ocurr in about 10minutes.........Wow here we are looking at 1/2 hour map updates that don't seem like a lot but Bill is moving at 20mph that 10 miles in a 1/2 hour......thats enough to see in a time frame.
Quoting weathercrazy40:
not sure good or bad but now they have a low on the front over va im looking at the water vapor


Exactly.......the HIGH is pushing things WEST.
Thanks Pilatus for the reply. Too bad, always enjoy meeting aviation, or weather, enthusiasts, haha. Pilatus is a Swiss company, guess they take their name from Mt. Pilatus? They build a very fine turboprop aircraft, wonderful performance specs, costs a couple of million bucks however, just a little, no, a Lot, out of my range, haha! I will stick to my little old Piper Archer...
About 2 minutes left for a new Satellite update
it sure does feel tropical here yesterday dewpt got to 78 even now at 4am temp 75 depwt 74
Thanks. I didn't catch on that this high was caused by the hurricane itself. Rather interesting and makes sense, if it turns out to be the case, why the models didn't predict it. Will be interesting to see what the experts say at the 5am update.
Another thing about the invest going out to sea. I looked at the 00z CMC,EURO and GFS they seem to take right behind Bill. But, reading the Marine Forecast, GOM Forecast and my local NW GOM forecast. They all say the Bermuda high is/will build back in under Bill. The NOGAPS brings invest to Fl but not very developed. Looking on the seven day fronts/pressure map the only thing I see that would turn it away from Fl at the last second is a trough that seems weeker than this one. Which I have to agree isnt moving as fast or as strong as was forecasted. At least not on this end. I am not a met and could be completely wrong. And we have a long way to watch this one. Just doing some late nite musing. But gotta get to bed. Got my grandbaby's bday tomorrow. She's turning 4. :) Good night all.
TampaS, may I suggest as a topic for your blog, that you cover the phenomenon of large canes "making their own weather" such as what Bill appears to be doing, with the High he is augmenting? I have always been curious to know more about that situation. Kind of like the canne gets "too big to fail" I guess, haha.
1281. KRL
Agree with TampaSpin!!

HOLY CRAP!!!!

And once again so many assumptions were made based on the 5 day out tracks giving tens of millions of people the impression nothing to worry about folks.

I don't trust any hurricane forecast path until it's under 48 hours. Too many variables at play beyond that.
to me the front looks like its just sittign there even behind it looks like clould filling back out to the west and the clouds ahead of it just moving up the coast and not east
Quoting TampaSpin:
About 2 minutes left for a new Satellite update


I was amazed at the tightening of isobars around the high to Bill's North in just 6 hrs.
guess its a wait and see if bill crosses 70w then its time to be thinking up here
TampaSpin what longitude do you think is the likely landfall. All the models had Bill not going west of 68.2, he appears to be around 68.3 now and maybe going nw or even wnw in the last few frames when he was suppossed to go N and then NNE
This is defintely not a wobble....still went WEST even more and looks like a bigger turn left coming....
what is the time gap when they get the info and then put out the 5am report would it be after it seems to make the jog or before it and we have to wait til 8am for it to catch it
1288. 789
Quoting TampaSpin:
Here is a nice Satellite loop to watch click the loop and its zooms in. Hit your browser fresh ..It updates every 1/2 hour.
stormW has been giving hints > about this posibility in his blogs i wonder what the NHC will have to say?
Quoting hurricaneoz:
TampaSpin what longitude do you think is the likely landfall. All the models had Bill not going west of 68.2, he appears to be around 68.3 now and maybe going nw or even wnw in the last few frames when he was suppossed to go N and then NNE


Best guess 71West
1290. pilatus
The longer the 5am update comes up, the more intriguing the wait becomes. Usually they come out at least 15 minutes before the stated time.
Tropical Storm WARNING for eastern Massechusettes JUST ISSUED sorry spelling excited lol
that waring show up coverign the open water east of here
5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 22
Location: 33.0°N 68.5°W
Max sustained: 105 mph
Moving: NNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 960 mb
THis next satellite update appeared to be making a major jog to the WEST right at the end...have to see in the next one in about 5minutes.
they AP and Weather Channel both just announced the TS Warning for eastern Mass I still don't see updates on the sites yet tho.
nhc trcking map still the same
I don't know how you guys can look at it frame by frame! It makes my head hurt, especially at this hour. I also have a bit of trouble seeing where the eye is. I see what you guys mean on the loop though.
if you go the the taunton national weather service site it shows it off shore not on the cape like the nhc has it
1299. pilatus
Latest NHC track shows an almost direct hit on Halifax.
Newest forecast track from NHC

LOL TampaSpin - this westcasting is hilarious, it needs to go though.
1302. 789
Quoting pilatus:
Latest NHC track shows an almost direct hit on Halifax.
it seems to have gone 140 miles west in 3 hours it is moving at 345 degrees
hey Tampa - is it just me, or is Bill still going further to the west than the forecast track demonstrates? It's almost like they're releasing forecasts 12 hours behind. As for the TS Warning... I was passing forward info directly from the weather channel, they read a statement said Eastern Mass.... perhaps it is just cape cod for now.
1304. pilatus
I can't really discern where the eye is anymore, but the NHC track has definitely shifted slightly west. The next 6 hours will be critical.
INITIAL 22/0300Z 31.0N 67.5W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 33.5N 68.1W 95 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 37.3N 67.8W 95 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 41.3N 65.4W 80 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 45.1N 59.9W 70 KT
72HR VT 25/0000Z 50.5N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/0000Z 55.0N 19.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/0000Z 60.5N 6.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

this was at the 11pm update 68.1 was going to be when it took the east turn and its at 68.5
He's still looking so dismal on the satellite. I wonder how much he will intensify, if at all.
Bill won't hit the United States guys, the trough will prevail...meanwhile we should turn our attention to 92L, which may or may not be a fish storm. Wait and see as always...though this one might have less of a chance to be a fish storm since the BH will likely rebuild after Bill goes out to sea.
his only shot to get stronger would be the gulf stream
ENSO discussion in my blog. Just click my username.
Quoting DM21Altestic:
LOL TampaSpin - this westcasting is hilarious, it needs to go though.


I'm not wishcasting.....DAm i hope it does not hit any land mass.....your a Troll which we all know.
SSD site now has the 35W disturbance as an invest interesting
Does anyone know when they will update the discussion on Bill? I don't recall it coming out later than the rest but then again my shifts are usually not this slow that I can check so often...
Troll, lol wut? I'm not a troll...I haven't trolled at all this year...where did you come up with that?

I didn't say you were wishcasting - I said westcasting.
Quoting DM21Altestic:
Troll, lol wut? I'm not a troll...I haven't trolled at all this year...where did you come up with that?

I didn't say you were wishcasting - I said westcasting.


Have you even looked at the WV satellite.....
Quoting DM21Altestic:
Troll, lol wut? I'm not a troll...I haven't trolled at all this year...where did you come up with that?

I didn't say you were wishcasting - I said westcasting.


LOOK at the steering flow maps.....they don't lie.
1316. pilatus
I'm looking at the 0815 enhanced shortwave pic. Seems like the eye was at 32.85 68.65.

HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT BILL HAS JUST ABOUT FINISHED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...
AND NOW HAS A 48 N MI WIDE EYE. THE AIRCRAFT ENCOUNTERED 120 KT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL...AND A
DROPSONDE IN THE AREA SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KT. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 960 MB. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

BILL HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 345/19. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT
24-48 HR BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER 48 HR...THE
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR
THE FIRST 48 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE
NEW FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

BILL SHOULD REMAIN IN LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND THUS THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.
AFTER 24 HR...COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE BILL TO
WEAKEN. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT ABOUT
THE 48 HR PERIOD AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR...AND THE EXTRATROPICAL
REMNANTS OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS THE
ATLANTIC.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE
DETAILS.

THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST...AND THE WIND
SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT NOW SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THAT AREA. ANY ADDITIONAL TRACK
DEVIATIONS TO THE WEST WOULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0900Z 33.0N 68.5W 90 KT
12HR VT 22/1800Z 36.1N 68.7W 95 KT
24HR VT 23/0600Z 40.1N 67.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 23/1800Z 44.1N 63.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 24/0600Z 48.0N 55.6W 60 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/0600Z 51.0N 31.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/0600Z 54.0N 14.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/0600Z 58.0N 4.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




TampaSpin - the updated discussion now calls for 68.7 as the most westerly point (in 12 hours) this seems strange given that its 68.5 now and still going NNW by their own bearings.
TWC must have mis-stated because I still see no TS Warning anywhere inland in Mass.... what's up with that? I even went back with my DVR and made sure I heard right. lol

speaking of TWC I love how the closer the storm has gotten than predicted, the more they insist on "reassuring" people that "oh don't worry, the front is still pushing through!".... yet, it's retrograded about 30 to 60 miles tonight depending on what part of the front you look at.
the national weather service map for here has the waring over the waters not any land
yeah the clould line only move up the coast not east and look like at the front the cloud build out to the west in the loop
1322. wjdow
Westcasting is a fun word, never heard it before. Have seen it in action though, most every storm.
werid on one site cant get the models they are not coming up and on this site they are not not show the 5am model up date still 2am
I sincerely hope im wrong. If i am i apologize for my misinterpertation....I going to bed for a while......Again i hope im wrong.
ok i just needed to wait but models dont look any different
1326. 789
Quoting TampaSpin:
I sincerely hope im wrong. If i am i apologize for my misinterpertation....I going to bed for a while......Again i hope im wrong.
thanks good nite me too!
i noticed the rain band here today went from ny city to maine with very little movement to the east never made it to boston and now another batch moving from ny city moving ne to nh and maine not much moving to the east
Quoting wjdow:
Westcasting is a fun word, never heard it before. Have seen it in action though, most every storm.

There's always one...Tampa is a good user but even he could get lured...apocalyps is a troll and you know he'll always westcast...same with JFV.
national weather now has the waring covering the cape up to the canal
me personally, I'm not westcasting - I'm saying they should be ashamed in the first place for ASSUMING it would be a fish storm a week in advance - when now, it is dangerously close to making US landfall. You are right though it DOES happen every storm.... but there's a difference between "westcasting" a storm with no evidence to back it up and doing it because some new signs, although maybe not solid, point towards a more westerly result. Heck, I was called a "westcaster" the other day for saying the storm would go EAST of where it currently is. What does that tell you? All-in-all, from experience I find that the "westcasters" are just as accurate as the "eastcasters" when all added up. Me, I say screw the models and look at the current data... it's saying something a little different... but still I'm not convinced on a landfall in the US... it definitely is a higher risk than one would have thought though, wouldn't you say?
before they were saying it would pass 220 mile south of the islands now 175 miles
the whc channel is going to have someone on cap cod
Well, from what I can see on water vapor, both over the water and on land, I think TampaSpin is completely correct, and you'll note he called it *before* the NHC started shifting the projected path to the west and issuing warnings. Bill is definitely not moving north, and every tenth of a degree he moves west from here on out brings him closer to a landfall somewhere in the U.S..

If nothing else, it will increase the coastal wave and high water damage. And frankly, if it gets to 70W, I think Cape Cod will will see hurricane force winds somewhere.

That's not westcasting... that's looking at the steering currents, the WV loop, and Bill's current direction. The only real question now is how long does Bill take to start moving due N?

Jo
the twc even saying the front stalling out over ny
I see a lot of talk about "westcasting" and being new to this jargon I don't really understand. Everyone seems to imply that said "westcaster" is hoping for landfall, but isn't this storm already aimed for Nova Scotia?
im confussed they are saying the westerlys will make bill turn if you go thru all level of the sterring wind nothing shows winds going west to east
It's a derogatory term for some poster seeing a westward movement to a hurricane, when it isn't there, or predicting a longer term movement west that goes against the generally accepted forecast. Please note that the people who toss that term out there never apologize for it if the westward movement, ala Gustav last year, for example, turns out to be correct.

Jo
good morning reason i dont ignore anyone is its funny thing watch the characters go down go down hard okay apocolsype where the hell are you? your forecast was only wrong by 400 miles or so
The NHC has been saying all along that people in New England should closely monitor Bill...now you know why....
1340. pilatus
Eye as at 0915 UTC seems to be at 33.10 68.70.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ir2-l.jpg
Thanks for bringing me up to speed Jo. Sometimes I think one could make a profession out of forecasting the drama on this blog. Guess it keeps thing interesting. =)
Quoting canehater1:
The NHC has been saying all along that people in New England should closely monitor Bill...now you know why....


haha yeah, if only that got passed along to TV instead of staying on weather.gov lol I haven't seen one TV meteorologist even mention the slightest possibility of even TS conditions in New England until today.
Quoting canehater1:
The NHC has been saying all along that people in New England should closely monitor Bill...now you know why....
why just another big one out in the seas
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #44
TYPHOON VAMCO (T0910)
18:00 PM JST August 22 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category Thee Typhoon East Of Minamitori-sima

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Vamco (955 hPa) located at 25.1N 156.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving north-northwest at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 29.5N 154.9E - 75 knots (Cat 3/Typhoon)
45 HRS: 33.0N 155.2E - 70 knots (Cat 3/Typhoon)
69 HRS: 40.9N 160.4E - 65 knots (Cat 3/Typhoon)
big storms moving through CT at the moment. I also wanted to make an observation. Only 1 storm in the vicinity of Bill has made landfall in the US at this time of year.... which means at least some computer models aren't experienced with a storm such as this making landfall, therefor the models are naturally bias towards these storms being "fishes" Of course historical data isn't all that is in these models, but it surely must have an impact... and when it comes to a storm impacting New England there's a lot of unique and pretty unpredictable factors which need to happen for that to happen.... so overall, whether this storm or any other storm hits New England or not, both the models and people have insufficient experience to warn this area of a strong hurricane quick enough to prevent a disaster.
here in e cent. florida i just got a report the seas are not quite is big as expected. probally because bill was moving so quick going out to catch a couple
I'm here on the Central NJ Coast and I just checked and the ocean is flat. Lots of disappointed surfers here as the sun's coming up....
Will 92L be another fish storm?
Quoting NJNorEaster:
I'm here on the Central NJ Coast and I just checked and the ocean is flat. Lots of disappointed surfers here as the sun's coming up....


wait till this evening
Quoting NJNorEaster:
I'm here on the Central NJ Coast and I just checked and the ocean is flat. Lots of disappointed surfers here as the sun's coming up....


apparently the surfers didn't see the time line for the waves lol
Quoting ktymisty:


wait till this evening


We'll see.... Bill has a lot of "dud" potential for the east coast... wave height forecast keeps dropping... it was 10'-15', then 8'-12', now 6'-8'as Bill moves further east than predicted and keeps losing strength...
Quoting NJNorEaster:


We'll see.... Bill has a lot of "dud" potential for the east coast... wave height forecast keeps dropping... it was 10'-15', then 8'-12', now 6'-8'as Bill moves further east than predicted and keeps losing strength...


Bill's not moving further east than predicted, he's further west than predicted, but he is a little weaker than predicted and moving faster - both which are negative for waves.
1353. IKE
Civil Air Terminal, BE (Airport)
Updated: 47 min 21 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
82 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 41 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 53 mph

Pressure: 29.89 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 91 °F
Visibility: 5.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 1900 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 20000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft
1354. IKE
Very little action on the 00Z ECMWF through September 1st...
good morning all,


just wanted to say hi, i'm in the backround here lurking, Taking notes..btw i feel like im back in school learning meteorology, i hope you dont mind me raising my hand once in a while for a few questions when needed. I find this site very informative.

thanks
Quoting ChrisCone:


apparently the surfers didn't see the time line for the waves lol
I saw on the news last night NJ had big waves.
what was the highest recorded winds in bermuda as of today? any damage or fatalities?
Been busy with work. Glad to see you all still bickering over Bill's heading.

Maritime interest have been the only ones affected so far other than for beach goers. Major media is reporting predictions for coastal New York of large waves, rip curents, and strong undertow. Some reports are predicting waves over 20 feet. Surfs up!

Coastal errosion is being accelerated by the storm enhanced currents. This will have an environmental and economic impact on everything from turtle nesting areas to hot dog vendors on public beaches.

Stay safe if you planning on going to the beach on the east coast of the U.S.
1360. Ossqss




Blue TS watch for Mass.
TPC/TAFB 72 hour surface forecast


Click on image to view original size in a new window



1362. Ossqss
Smiths Parrish, Bermuda Webcam, should refresh

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAPE COD...MARTHAS
VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE
LOCAL STATEMENT /HLSBOX/ FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS
THREAT.
I am really impressed with the technology today in determining pressure gradients to predict Hurricane Paths. The Wx folk didn't make any commitment to "Bill's" path early on, but once they did the models really were quite impressive in their agreement. I kept waiting for "Big Bill" to do a crazy Ivan,.. do a loop and ruin my breakfast in Florida. Well done Wx people like Jeff Masters for turning what once appeared to be a guessing game into a science.
last update has bill moving north
1366. IKE
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
800 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

...BILL MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 410 MILES...660 KM...
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT
510 MILES...820 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE
BILL SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY OR
TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY WEAKENING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF BILL MOVES NORTH
OF THE GULF STREAM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. BERMUDA IS STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
AROUND 40 MPH...64 KM/HR...AT THIS TIME.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS INDICATED THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG
THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA...AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...34.0N 68.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 22 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
"I kept waiting for "Big Bill" to do a crazy Ivan"

Crazy Ivan - good one...
1368. IKE
In the last 3 hours, the system has moved 1.0N and 0.1E.
Quoting DM21Altestic:

There's always one...Tampa is a good user but even he could get lured...apocalyps is a troll and you know he'll always westcast...same with JFV.


This troll talk is crazy...A troll is someone who infiltrates a blog to wreak havoc my casting insults and trying to antagonize fellow bloggers. Just because someone west cast or wishcast or whatever the term that is way over used on this site is does not make them a troll. People should grow up if they cant stand the heat of someone whoe disagrees even if they do tend to bend toward the west then they should get out of the kitchen!
1370. IKE
Looks like it's fixing to be back to nothing in the Atlantic within a couple of days unless something else spins up....100 days left in the season after today....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
1371. bcn
Bill going north, even a few to east.
Good for Nova Scotia.
Could be we need to start thinking on England.

Morning everyone. Klaat from Cape Cod. Seas have been churning for 2 days. Local weather has rain and t-storms missing us going to North and West, typical pattern for months now.



So trough is to our West still, hasn't punched through, probably won't till Sunday night. Will take pictures of surf today at work where expected 6-8 foot waves between today and tomorrow. Luckily we'll only get 3-4' a couple miles down the road.

In for a good blow, it seems. All hatches battened down. Off to work, which ends tomorrow as I have gotten downsized.
Quoting klaatuborada:
Morning everyone. Klaat from Cape Cod. Seas have been churning for 2 days. Local weather has rain and t-storms missing us going to North and West, typical pattern for months now.



So trough is to our West still, hasn't punched through, probably won't till Sunday night. Will take pictures of surf today at work where expected 6-8 foot waves between today and tomorrow. Luckily we'll only get 3-4' a couple miles down the road.

In for a good blow, it seems. All hatches battened down. Off to work, which ends tomorrow as I have gotten downsized.

Sounds like you are ready for the weather.
I am sorry to hear you were downsized. Luck to you Klaat

EDITED: Looking forward to the pics
morning
1378. chrisrw
Mornin' all from Bermuda. Yes, we are still here! Not much change in the past 12 hours. Incredible surf. Winds consistent from the SE at about 45/50 overnight, gusts to perhaps 70. Possible small boat losses if proper precautions not taken. No structural (or human) damage - just the usual horticultural debris. Not big trees or branches, just leaves, fronds etc. Shops etc opening this morning - even my wife's masseuse turned up on schedule at 8.15am!
1379. P451
Good Morning. Bill Trough poured on me in the middle of the night. Looks like round 2 is today of some more heavy weather.

Meanwhile... what happened overnight? Satellite jump orbit? LOL...talk about a bizarre jump by Bill. And what's up with the nightly satellite blackouts anyway? Been three nights of that now.



The Eye reformed northward as well in a big jump towards the end of the loop. This was tough to plot given all the jumps and poor structure.




Bermuda Radar says goodbye to Bill.

1380. P451
12KM WV: That Bill Trough really put a hurting on New Jersey last night. We've had four waves of storms from it already with several inches of rain. Frequent lightning. No wind though. Had some small pea sized hail for about a minute yesterday late. Looks to do more today. It isn't moving fast at all. Seems to have been held up.




Models from Google Earth.

1381. P451
Winds and Seas still howling at that buoy west of Bermuda.



1382. Sting13
Well seems my island in eastern nova scotia is going to get smashed. I'll try to be posting updates/pictures on here as long as i have electricity and the lines are up.

HURRICANE WATCH FOR:
=NEW= GUYSBOROUGH COUNTY
=NEW= SYDNEY METRO AND CAPE BRETON COUNTY
=NEW= RICHMOND COUNTY.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= YARMOUTH COUNTY
=NEW= DIGBY COUNTY
=NEW= ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
=NEW= KINGS COUNTY
=NEW= HANTS COUNTY
=NEW= COLCHESTER COUNTY - TRURO AND SOUTH
=NEW= COLCHESTER COUNTY - COBEQUID BAY
=NEW= CUMBERLAND COUNTY - MINAS SHORE
=NEW= CUMBERLAND COUNTY NORTH AND COBEQUID PASS
=NEW= COLCHESTER COUNTY NORTH
=NEW= PICTOU COUNTY
=NEW= ANTIGONISH COUNTY
=NEW= INVERNESS COUNTY - SOUTH OF MABOU
=NEW= INVERNESS COUNTY - MABOU AND NORTH
=NEW= VICTORIA COUNTY
=NEW= QUEENS COUNTY P.E.I.
=NEW= KINGS COUNTY P.E.I.
=NEW= BUCHANS AND THE INTERIOR
=NEW= BURIN PENINSULA
=NEW= RAMEA - CONNAIGRE
=NEW= CHANNEL-PORT AUX BASQUES - BURGEO
=NEW= ST. GEORGE'S
=NEW= CORNER BROOK AND VICINITY
=NEW= DEER LAKE - HUMBER VALLEY
=NEW= GROS MORNE.
1383. breald
Quoting KEHCharleston:

Sounds like you are ready for the weather.
I am sorry to hear you were downsized. Luck to you Klaat

EDITED: Looking forward to the pics



I will post some pictures from the cliff walk in Newport later today as well.
1378. chrisrw Great news. Thanks for the update this morning.

What a difference a day can make. First Yesterday, then Today
Wave Hgts for SC Coast per NOAA
...
1385. IKE
P451...there's blackout every night on satellite as we approach fall equinox.
1387. P451
8AM...Bill moving northward with little change in strength...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Massachusetts
from Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach...including the islands of
Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket.

---

...Summary of 800 am AST information...
location...34.0n 68.4w
maximum sustained winds...105 mph
present movement...north or 360 degrees at 22 mph
minimum central pressure...960 mb
---
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275
miles...445 km. Bermuda is still reporting sustained winds of
around 40 mph...64 km/hr...at this time.
1388. P451
Quoting IKE:
P451...there's blackout every night on satellite as we approach fall equinox.


Ah, I see. Thanks for the info.
Quoting breald:



I will post some pictures from the cliff walk in Newport later today as well.
Great! Even when we do not know specifically who lives where - we know someone is there being affected. After watching these storms with you, we want to see what's happening.
Also, studying the charts etc, then being able to see pics, is interesting to say the least - pulls it all together, if you know what I mean.
1390. P451
Quoting bluewaterblues:


This troll talk is crazy...A troll is someone who infiltrates a blog to wreak havoc my casting insults and trying to antagonize fellow bloggers. Just because someone west cast or wishcast or whatever the term that is way over used on this site is does not make them a troll. People should grow up if they cant stand the heat of someone whoe disagrees even if they do tend to bend toward the west then they should get out of the kitchen!


Well said. Unfortunately certain terms like troll, 'whatever'caster, fish storm, are way overused and totally unnecessary.

Such wording reflect a 'clique' mentality in the writer, when there is no need for such.

Certainly trolls exist, I have seen many blogs with such.

Thing is, just ignore trolls, at the same time accept that there are differing views, sometimes these can trun out to be correct, as with Claudette.

Cheers.
Glad y'all made it through well.

Cheers.
Good morning all. P451 - really excellent graphic - you can see the squeeze is on along the eastern seaboard. Thanks for posting it!
Quoting bajelayman2:


Well said. Unfortunately certain terms like troll, 'whatever'caster, fish storm, are way overused and totally unnecessary.

Such wording reflect a 'clique' mentality in the writer, when there is no need for such.

Certainly trolls exist, I have seen many blogs with such.

Thing is, just ignore trolls, at the same time accept that there are differing views, sometimes these can trun out to be correct, as with Claudette.

Cheers.



I haven't seen the word 'troll' used inappropriately very often on here. The original poster was referring to apocalyps, who is immature and a troll. No question. There are a lot of inexperienced kids on this blog at times and some of them just get carried away. But there are also trolls.
1396. P451
Floater up on EATL AOI



What do you all think about that wave out there?? do you think it is just nothing? Thanks!
Quoting yonzabam:



I haven't seen the word 'troll' used inappropriately very often on here. The original poster was referring to apocalyps, who is immature and a troll. No question. There are a lot of inexperienced kids on this blog at times and some of them just get carried away. But there are also trolls.


does that mean that i am a troll? i have no experience in meteorology? i came here to learn cause i am fascinated by mother nature can bring. certainly i make no predictions just ask questions
where did everyone go?
Morning all. Just a quick look-in.

Glad to see it looks like Bermuda made it through ok.

I'm not so glad abt the Wward shift that NS more thorough in the path, though. Guess the trough shoved Bill and Bill shoved back....

Sure hope we see more of an easterly turn in the next 12 hrs or so....

Wonder how CycloneOz is doing?

L8r....
Despite the models not picking up on anything over the next 7 days, I still think something will pop up. The MJO is still pulsing upward, SST's are near normal, and shear is moderate. Time will tell.
1402. P451
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Good morning all. P451 - really excellent graphic - you can see the squeeze is on along the eastern seaboard. Thanks for posting it!


Morning. You're welcome.

Yeah, it will be interesting to see what this squeeze does for severe weather chances. I would assume it would be like wringing out a sponge.

Meanwhile...not much going on in the deep tropics.

Quoting justalurker:


does that mean that i am a troll? i have no experience in meteorology? i came here to learn cause i am fascinated by mother nature can bring. certainly i make no predictions just ask questions?


Of course not. Trolls come on here to wind up certain regulars or to make extreme statements that they know are wrong purely to get a reaction and make some waves. There's nothing wrong with asking questions, even very basic ones, but don't expect to get an answer every time.
Good Morning Everyone! Glad to see that the peeps in Bermuda are doing well this morning. I saw on the news where 4 people had to be rescued from rip currents, so the waves must be crazy!

Bill looks like he's wasting no time in trying to restrengthen, I guess that means his eyewall replacement is finally finished?

That's fairly bad news for the maritimes, especially since the abnormally humid and tropical airmass that's over them now will act to be less destructive towards the hurricane.
they sure overestimated the swells e central florida 4-6 ft max maybe alittle bigger occasionally these waves were mostly closed out
Does anyone know what will happen with that big yellow blob that the nhc has? do you think it will develope?
1408. P451
Not all that threatening for the NEUS it would seem.




No Tornado or Hail threats:

Categorical:



Wind:

Quoting leftovers:
they sure overestimated the swells e central florida 4-6 ft max maybe alittle bigger occasionally these waves were mostly closed out


I agree, i saw many cars yesterday heading north from SFLA expecting major swells, oh well, 4 to 6 feet is better than the regular ankle snappers..
Quoting IKE:
In the last 3 hours, the system has moved 1.0N and 0.1E.
where our buddy apocalpse? only 400 miles or so off on the characters forecast
You can see how much of a close call this really was from a Historic East Coast storm. If the trough came in a day late, Bill would have been easily 100-200 miles more west and moving into Long Island, NY.

G'morning from FIU.
Does anyone know what will happen with that big yellow blob that the nhc has? do you think it will develope?
Hi Storm!!

Do you know what will happen with that big yellow blob that the nhc has? do you think it will develope?
Thank you!! :)
Good Morning Senior Chief !
Quoting connie1976:
Hi Storm!!

Do you know what will happen with that big yellow blob that the nhc has? do you think it will develope?


There's no spin on it at the moment, but my guess is it will develop. No telling where it'll go, though.
1420. Grothar
Quoting connie1976:
where did everyone go?


Some of us are still here, just not commenting. Just a lull. In answer to your question, the invest and the new feature moving off of the African coast both appear to have possibilites of development. Right now the shear environment around the invest in not that good, but it would appear that strong high pressure should remain over both of them for a while and keep them on a westerly course until something changes. It is my opinion that the experts are just waiting a little to observe the upper level atmosphere for the next few days before calling anything.
less favorable means it wont develop out there s of cape verde islands. unfornately it might closer to home
Thanks all for answering my question!!
Storm, you should start charging me!! lol...
....
1425. P451
Seems a little high probability wise given not much of anything out there:




1426. IKE
From the latest Tropical Weather Discussion....

"THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N51W. A TROUGH RUNS
FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 24N53W. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS
FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 44W AND 56W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
32N22W TO 28N25W TO 28N30W."........


Keep an eye on that circulation. Appears headed to the south of west and it's one the GFS has picked up on as it moves closer to the USA and Bahamas.
1427. breald
I have a question. When you look at google earth and pull up the spag models for bill do you un-check the early cycle models? We should only look at the late cycle ones?


Next train approaching the Station.
1429. Patrap
1430. P451
Bill's remaining OHC (probably some missing data there in the upper right part of the image)

Quoting P451:
Seems a little high probability wise given not much of anything out there:






do you have a link to this image?
Man, waves whooped my butt yesterday. Rip tides are gonna be deadly today. I'll be back out tomorrow :)
1434. P451




That's very kind of you!! Thanks!
Quoting justalurker:


do you have a link to this image?

Link
Quoting reedzone:
You can see how much of a close call this really was from a Historic East Coast storm. If the trough came in a day late, Bill would have been easily 100-200 miles more west and moving into Long Island, NY.

Reed, please, GIVE IT UP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Link


thank you..bookmarked.
Quoting leftovers:
they sure overestimated the swells e central florida 4-6 ft max maybe alittle bigger occasionally these waves were mostly closed out


NOAA completely blew the wind forecasts in PR, up to the same day. Major letdown.

No problem with dry air currently, as opposed to Ana/Bill:

Quoting P451:
Bill's remaining OHC (probably some missing data there in the upper right part of the image)


It isn't missing data, it just doesn't show temps below about 26C which is the cut off for supporting TC.
Quoting hunkerdown:
Reed, please, GIVE IT UP



He's right actually, if the trough came a day late which it didn't, Bill would have made landfall in New York City.
1442. Engine2
Quoting P451:
Not all that threatening for the NEUS it would seem.




No Tornado or Hail threats:

Categorical:



Wind:



Just ringing out the moisture thats about it
1444. Patrap
Quoting CybrTeddy:



He's right actually, if the trough came a day late which it didn't, Bill would have made landfall in New York City.
First, my point is that he has been touting a NY hit long before Bill was formed. Second, if the troughs were delayed or Bill's spped was different, it could have put a lot of places in harms way, from the Lerrers all the way up to Maine, NOT just NYC.
Quoting StormW:


No problem!...really.

I know what it's like dealing with a hurricane...got caught between the coast of Hatteras, and about 60-70 nm from the center of hurricane Gordon back in 1994 on the Coast Guard Cutter I was on...270 ft in length. We were in 30-40 ft seas...I got injured in that...got slammed to the deck and separated my left shoulder.

Don't want folks to have to deal with a 'cane.


You are such a good guy, you know that Storm? Good morning by the way.
Glad Bermuda is surviving
Quoting CybrTeddy:



He's right actually, if the trough came a day late which it didn't, Bill would have made landfall in New York City.
To carry the IF theory further, you could say this about any storm which would have changed the ultimate outcome, but since it didn't...

Remember, close only counts with horseshoes and hand grenades.
Some Bill surf pics @ PR:





1450. Patrap
165
fxus64 klix 220918 cca
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
419 am CDT Sat Aug 22 2009


..cold front moving through this morning...


Short term...the cold front is currently working its way to the
coast stretching from northestern Alabama SW twrds southwestern la. The front will
continue to slowly work south twrds the coast this morning and by
midday should be through all of our coastal waters. Most of the
convection has come to an end overnight but there were still isolated
storms along the front mainly b/T lft and btr.


Today...look for isolated/scattered convection to refire later this morning
as the front continues to push south and another disturbance moves
down in the SW flow aloft. This activity will be along and south of
the front mainly across our coastal waters. Behind the front much
drier air will start to work in from the north but the cooler air
will lag back by about 12 hours or so. With that highs will mainly be
around 90 across most of the area but with less humid conditions
today it will be more comfortable. All rain should be at least 60 nm
south of the coast by early/middle afternoon with rain likely not returning
until late Tuesday if not Wednesday.


Sat night through Tuesday...quieter and much more comfortable conditions
expected across the region. Dewpoints will drop into the upper 50s
across our northern zones and middle 60s as far south as the la coast. Skies
will clear out late tonight with mostly clear to clear skies
expected to persist through Tuesday. Winds will also be relatively light
most nights...with tonight being an exception. Some cold air advection in the ll
tonight along with winds around 15kts just above the surface should keep
the surface winds from going calm...likely staying up in the 5-10kt
range. This will Hurt radiational cooling tonight but look for lows
to still be a good 5-10 degrees cooler than this morning. Over the
next few nights winds should be rather light and with dry conditions
over the region along with clear skies lows should be able to drop
nicely with possible upper 50s across southern MS and in the Pearl River
and Pascagoula drainage basins Sun night. H925 temperatures will fall to
20-21c sun then rise about a degree each successive day leading to
mostly upper 80s tomorrow and lower 90s by Tuesday. As for rain...we
should remain mostly dry but by Tuesday moisture will try to work back
twrds the region. In addition to that as the eastern Continental U.S. Trough
flattens out a piece of it may cut off/detach over the northern/northwestern Gulf
Tuesday and this could help get isolated convection across the coastal
waters Tuesday afternoon. /Cab/


Long term...no big changes in the thinking for the extended. There
are some differences in the medium range with how they handle that
piece of middle level energy over the northwestern Gulf. The European model (ecmwf) is stronger
with this feature and pushes it west into southern Texas while the GFS is
weaker and keeps it over the lower MS valley. For the most part our
sensible weather will be similar either way so I will just stick
with the GFS/mex at this time.



Wednesday through Sat...moisture will be on the return and with either an
upper low or at least a weakness in the middle levels scattered convection
should start to affect most of the region especially during the
afternoon. Temperatures will also be back around normal. Still need to keep an
eye out as our front will dissipate over the Gulf add in that there
could be a weak upper low over the Gulf and either of those can
always lead to some tropical development this time of the year.



/Cab/


&&


Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


Bill

Bill

AOI
Quoting serialteg:
Some Bill surf pics @ PR:






cool pics serial!


Wednesday through Sat...moisture will be on the return and with either an
upper low or at least a weakness in the middle levels scattered convection
should start to affect most of the region especially during the
afternoon. Temperatures will also be back around normal. Still need to keep an
eye out as our front will dissipate over the Gulf add in that there
could be a weak upper low over the Gulf and either of those can
always lead to some tropical development this time of the year.



/Cab/


&&




Is November here yet???? Thanks for the heads up Pat. Good luck today!
1455. TX2FL
??

I just got a trip cancelled to Boston that I was supposed to have tomorrow...Tropical Storm Warnings for MA they said. I didn't believe it until I flipped on TV, now on CNN they are saying "Bill changes course and heads to New England"

I saw a jump to the W/NW on the satellite last night, I think the High was just too strong?

Quoting StormW:
Ok...I gotta do it again...I disagree with the NHC statement that the upper levels winds are less conducive on our wave near 35W.

They must have a different map to look at than I do



maybe if it was lower... looks like it has some pretty tough shear in front of it.
1457. PBG00
Quoting hunkerdown:
To carry the IF theory further, you could say this about any storm which would have changed the ultimate outcome, but since it didn't...

Remember, close only counts with horseshoes and hand grenades.


I love that expression..

Alot of people really saw this storm as hitting the east coast. strangely, most of them have disappeared since the track confirmed east.

It would have been disasterous for sure, glad it didn't happen (and really never was forcast to..was it?
Quoting StormW:
Ok...I gotta do it again...I disagree with the NHC statement that the upper levels winds are less conducive on our wave near 35W.

They must have a different map to look at than I do



I agree with you StormW, I don't see anything that would hinder it.

1459. P451
Quoting justalurker:


do you have a link to this image?


I have two.

Link

Link
Quoting StormW:
Ok...I gotta do it again...I disagree with the NHC statement that the upper levels winds are less conducive on our wave near 35W.

They must have a different map to look at than I do



Good morning StormW

From looking at the shear map I do see some fast SW winds to the NW near where the low will be at 40W. Given its current disorganized state even marginally high wind shear will likely serve to hamper development. Perhaps it is that which the NHC are referring to even though for the moment the wave is sitting under a high.
1461. P451
Quoting southfla:


It isn't missing data, it just doesn't show temps below about 26C which is the cut off for supporting TC.


Ah, okay. Was wondering why the data cut off on a straight line like that.
run the vis. floater loop 35w looks like windshear to me
Quoting hurricanehanna:

cool pics serial!


thanks, not mine but from the crew!

Quoting P451:


I have two.

Link

Link


thank you
My guess is that the t-wave near 35W won't develop for now, due to the trough/ULL which has dipped southward to the southeast of Bill. The center of the ULL appears to be at about 50W and 27N and still appears to be drifting further south or southwest. This should create an unfavorable environment for the t-wave to get better-organized.
1467. wxhatt
Good Morning StormW.

It looks like Bill is getting ready to traverse the northern extent of the Gulf Stream.
hey P,
if i'm reading this map correctly, the light green box that the wave is over now at 35w, based on the legend, is that where NHC gets the probability from (30%)

I don't think Bill will make it to New England but, its going to come a lot closer than aniticaipated 24hrs ago by many. Many could still experience wide spread power outages. Which last nite when they went to bed did not expect this morning.
1470. FLdewey
Nice surf this morning in Melbourne!
Amazing how Bill has actually pushed the trough back to the WEST some.
IMO we may have another Central Pacific tropical storm based on how close 92L is to the basin. What's the record for most tropical storms in the C. Pacific?

Also, I give the yellow circled wave in the atlantic a 40-60% chance of becoming a TD.
I just went over to the NHC to look at a few satellite loops and they have a floater over the wave at 35west and it says invest...hmmm? any thoughts?
Good morning all. Thanks to everyone for their answers to my questions about predictions for Halifax for the last week. I'm presently on duty on one of the Canadian Warships docked in Halifax harbour, and thanks to the wunderground I have been well prepared for bill since Tuesday. Well before the rush took place around here to fill up on water and fuel etc.
It seems like Bill won't be as severe as origionally thought for Halifax and I for one am very happy about that. Let's hope tomorrow is only a tropical storm event for us and not a repeat of Juan.
To the folks who were screaming all week that Bill was headed towards the Carolina's, New England, or in one case NYC. I have a new hatred of wishcasters. I noticed all those folks have gone back to lurking and hopefully the comments trail stays a little "cleaner" for the next couple of days.
I makes a fellow wonder are some of the "wishcasters" out there hoping for a major hurricane to hit their city? Is that what they want to happen? Having been through a hurricane or two both at sea and on shore, the last thing someone in this world should hope for is a damaging storm endangering thier neighbour and friends. I hope in future those folks think of that when they yell "Hey it's turning towards me!" on the hope that they are in line for a hit from a major storm.
Sorry for the rant wunderground, if Bill is a non event for Halifax then I will go back to lurking as well. Thanks wund folks for giving this fellow an excellent heads up on this storm and making my family better prepared.
Quoting breald:
I have a question. When you look at google earth and pull up the spag models for bill do you un-check the early cycle models? We should only look at the late cycle ones?


Early models are used by NHC for their forecasts. From the 2008 Season Verification Report

Numerous objective forecast aids (guidance models) are available to help the
NHC in the preparation of official track and intensity forecasts. Guidance models are
characterized as either early or late, depending on whether or not they are available to the
forecaster during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC (12Z) forecast
cycle, which begins with the 12Z synoptic time and ends with the release of an official
forecast at 15Z. The 12Z run of the National Weather Service/Global Forecast System
(GFS) model is not complete and available to the forecaster until about 16Z, or about an
hour after the NHC forecast is released. Consequently, the 12Z GFS would be
considered a late model since it could not be used to prepare the 12Z official forecast.
This report focuses on the verification of early models, although some late model
information is also given.
Quoting serialteg:
Some Bill surf pics @ PR:







awesome pics
Nice blog this morning 456. Nice pics too. Have never seen a uniformly purple sky before!

Still best case scenario with Bill.Loop
NHC et al have been awesome with forecasts.
Click to enlarge...You can see how BILL has helped to create its own Dome of HIGH pressure and caused the Trough to retrograte back to the west some......Pretty cool.

Quoting noreaster78:
Good morning all. Thanks to everyone for their answers to my questions about predictions for Halifax for the last week. I'm presently on duty on one of the Canadian Warships docked in Halifax harbour, and thanks to the wunderground I have been well prepared for bill since Tuesday. Well before the rush took place around here to fill up on water and fuel etc.
It seems like Bill won't be as severe as origionally thought for Halifax and I for one am very happy about that. Let's hope tomorrow is only a tropical storm event for us and not a repeat of Juan.
To the folks who were screaming all week that Bill was headed towards the Carolina's, New England, or in one case NYC. I have a new hatred of wishcasters. I noticed all those folks have gone back to lurking and hopefully the comments trail stays a little "cleaner" for the next couple of days.
I makes a fellow wonder are some of the "wishcasters" out there hoping for a major hurricane to hit their city? Is that what they want to happen? Having been through a hurricane or two both at sea and on shore, the last thing someone in this world should hope for is a damaging storm endangering thier neighbour and friends. I hope in future those folks think of that when they yell "Hey it's turning towards me!" on the hope that they are in line for a hit from a major storm.
Sorry for the rant wunderground, if Bill is a non event for Halifax then I will go back to lurking as well. Thanks wund folks for giving this fellow an excellent heads up on this storm and making my family better prepared.
keep in mind a lot of people posting the wishcasting are kids who truly have no understanding. They don't see the real piture of a damaging storm, just the possible days off from school.
1480. P451
NEW
BLOG
NEW
BLOG
NEW BLOG!
new blog!!!!!!
dang... bill is exploding... i couldnt use the floater anymore cause hes spilling over the sides
Quoting Chicklit:
Nice blog this morning 456. Nice pics too. Have never seen a uniformly purple sky before!

Still best case scenario with Bill.Loop
NHC et al have been awesome with forecasts.


theyve been terrible with the other storms this year, including the invests in may they refused to name just because it was may. this storm follows climatology perfectly and therefore was very easy to predict and you're slobbering on their feet for it? come on.
1485. breald
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Early models are used by NHC for their forecasts. From the 2008 Season Verification Report

Numerous objective forecast aids (guidance models) are available to help the
NHC in the preparation of official track and intensity forecasts. Guidance models are
characterized as either early or late, depending on whether or not they are available to the
forecaster during the forecast cycle. For example, consider the 1200 UTC (12Z) forecast
cycle, which begins with the 12Z synoptic time and ends with the release of an official
forecast at 15Z. The 12Z run of the National Weather Service/Global Forecast System
(GFS) model is not complete and available to the forecaster until about 16Z, or about an
hour after the NHC forecast is released. Consequently, the 12Z GFS would be
considered a late model since it could not be used to prepare the 12Z official forecast.
This report focuses on the verification of early models, although some late model
information is also given.


Thanks so much for your response.
Quoting hunkerdown:
Reed, please, GIVE IT UP


You should give it up.....In my observation of thie blog Reedzone hascontributed much more and been much more accurate with giving possible scenario setups than anything I have seen posted by you.

What he stated was accurate...if that trough would have been delayed the impact on the northeast could have been a major event.