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A weakened Tomas still a grave danger to Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:38 PM GMT on November 03, 2010

As this record-breaking third busiest Atlantic hurricane season in history unfolded, I marveled that earthquake-ravaged Haiti managed to dodge significant rain-making tropical storms throughout the peak months of August, September, and October. Cruel fate will not allow Haiti to escape the entire season unscathed, though, as a late-season November storm already proven to be a killer--Tomas--takes aim at Haiti. Tomas has struggled mightily over the past few days, and is now a tropical depression. However, even if it does not reach hurricane strength, Tomas is still likely to bring heavy rains capable of causing disastrous flooding in defenseless Haiti. It doesn't take much rain to cause a flooding disaster in Haiti--ordinary seasonal heavy rains have killed 23 people in southern Haiti over the past month, including twelve people in Port-au-Prince this past weekend. According to the Associated Press, most of last weekend's deaths occurred when surging rivers burst through houses built in ravines. With the soils already saturated from last weekend's rains, the stage is set in Haiti for a significant flooding disaster capable of causing heavy loss of life. I believe it is 30% likely that Tomas will stay far enough west of the Haiti earthquake zone so that rains will be limited to 1 - 4 inches to the region, causing only modest flooding problems and little or no loss of life. More likely (40% chance) is the possibility of major flooding due to 4 - 8 inches of rains. Finally, I expect a 30% chance that heavier rains of 5 - 20 inches over Haiti will cause catastrophic flooding like experienced in 2008's four hurricanes. Potential flooding disasters are not possible just in the earthquake zone, but also in northern Haiti and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. So, keep praying for the people of Haiti, they need all the help they can get.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tomas.

Tomas struggling
Satellite loops of Tomas show a very disorganized tropical depression, with clumps of heavy thunderstorms scattered about the center in a vaguely cyclonic fashion. However, the thunderstorms are increasing in intensity and areal coverage this morning, and upper-level outflow is now well-established to the north. Given the highly favorable environment for intensification Tomas is in, the current satellite presentation suggests that Tomas is at the beginning of a period of steady intensification that will take it back to tropical storm strength by tonight, and to Category 1 hurricane strength by Friday. A hurricane hunter aircraft will have a better estimate of Tomas' strength by early this afternoon.

Track forecast for Tomas
The ridge of high pressure pushing Tomas to the west has weakened, allowing Tomas to slow down to a forward speed of 4 mph this morning. A trough of low pressure approaching the eastern U.S. has now begun to pull Tomas more to the west-northwest, and a sharper northward turn will develop today, and become a north-northeast motion by Friday. This motion should take Tomas just east of Jamaica and over western Haiti on Friday. NHC is giving Port-au-Prince, Haiti, a 46% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds, and a 5% chance of hurricane force winds. These odds are 45% and 4%, respectively for Kingston, Jamaica, and 19% and 2% for Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. Heavy rains from Tomas will begin affecting Jamaica and southwestern Haiti beginning on Thursday afternoon, and will spread to eastern Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and the rest of Haiti by Friday morning. Tomas will probably not be as bad for Jamaica as Tropical Storm Nicole in September, which killed 14 and did $245 million in damage. Nicole's rains lasted three days in Jamaica, and Tomas' rains should last at most 1 1/2 days on the island.

While all of the computer models agree on the motion of Tomas through Friday, there continue to be major differences in forecasts for what happens beginning on Saturday. The trough of low pressure pulling Tomas to the north is expected to lift out, leaving Tomas behind in an area of weak steering currents. The official NHC forecast follows the GFS and ECMWF models, which have been very consistent and reliable predicting the track of Tomas. These models forecast that Tomas will stall several hundred miles north of Haiti, then move slowly eastward. However, the GFDL model stalls Tomas just west of Port-au-Prince Haiti, predicting a days-long period of heavy rains for Haiti. The UKMET and NOGAPS model solutions are also unpleasant for Haiti; these models predict that Tomas will stall over the Turks and Caicos Islands, then drift south over eastern Cuba and western Haiti. The farther north Tomas gets, the higher wind shear will be, and the weaker the storm will get. However, if Tomas stays near the latitude of Hispaniola, wind shear will be low to moderate, and the storm will be able to maintain its strength if the center stays over water. Given recent model trends, I believe a multi-day period of heavy rains that could total twenty inches for eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the western Dominican Republic is at least 30% likely.

Intensity forecast for Tomas
Tomas' struggles to intensify over the past day are difficult to explain scientifically, as all the data we have suggests the storm should have strengthened. Our ability to forecast intensification is limited by the poor availability of data over the oceans, though, and there must be a layer of wind shear or dry air our sensors cannot pick out that is interfering with development. In the absence of any concrete evidence on what is causing Tomas' current troubles, I must continue to forecast intensification over the coming two days. Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model has dropped to the low range, 5 - 10, and is predicted to stay in the low range for the next three days. The atmosphere is very moist in the Caribbean, as seen on water vapor satellite imagery, and the models predict a very moist atmosphere will surround Tomas for the remainder of the week. With SSTs at a record warm 29.5°C and a very high ocean heat content, there is a substantial danger that Tomas will undergo a period of rapid intensification if has time to build an eyewall. Crucially, the storm has waited too long to begin this process, and it now appears unlikely that Tomas will have time to grow beyond Category 1 hurricane strength before landfall in Haiti on Friday. NHC is giving Tomas a 5% chance of reaching Category 3+ strength, which is a reasonable forecast. With the atmosphere expected to be very moist, it is likely that Tomas will dump very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches over much of Haiti, even if Tomas strikes as a tropical storm. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing heavy loss of life due to extreme floods running down Haiti's deforested mountain slopes. Portlight.org is preparing to send their mobile kitchen with enough food to feed 500 people per day, if the threat from Tomas materializes as forecast.

Haiti's hurricane history
In many ways, the hurricane season of 2008 was the cruelest ever experienced in Haiti. Four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on the impoverished nation. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country. Particularly hard-hit was Gonaives, the fourth largest city. According to reliefweb.org, Haiti suffered 793 killed, with 310 missing and another 593 injured. The hurricanes destroyed 22,702 homes and damaged another 84,625. About 800,000 people were affected--8% of Haiti's total population. The flood wiped out 70% of Haiti's crops, resulting in dozens of deaths of children due to malnutrition in the months following the storms. Damage was estimated at over $1 billion, the costliest natural disaster in Haitian history, prior to the 2010 earthquake. The damage amounted to over 5% of the country's $17 billion GDP, a staggering blow for a nation so poor.


Figure 2. The flooded city of Gonaives after Hurricane Hanna, September 3, 2008. Image credit: Lambi Fund of Haiti.

Two thousand and eight was only one of many years hurricane have brought untold misery to Haiti. Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 passed just north of the country as a tropical storm, dumping 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The resulting floods killed over 3000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes . Unfortunately for Haiti, its name appears several times on this list. Hurricane Flora killed over 8000 people in 1963, making it the 6th most deadly hurricane ever. An unnamed 1935 storm killed over 2000, and Hurricane Hazel killed over 1000 in 1954. More recently, Hurricane Gordon killed over 1000 Haitians in 1994, and in 1998, Hurricane Georges killed over 400 while destroying 80% of all the crops in the country.

Surprisingly, only six major Category 3 and stronger hurricanes have struck Haiti since 1851. The strongest hurricane to hit Haiti was Hurricane Cleo of 1964, which struck the southwestern peninsula as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, killing 192 people. Haiti's only other Category 4 storm was Hurricane Flora of 1963, which had 145 mph winds when it struck the southwestern peninsula, killing 8000. No Category 5 hurricanes have hit Haiti since 1851. The most recent Category 3 hurricane to hit Haiti was Hurricane David of 1979, which crossed northern Haiti as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds after hitting the Dominican Republic as a Category 5 hurricane with 170 mph winds. David weakened quickly to a tropical storm after crossing into Haiti, as caused no deaths in the country. The other major hurricanes to strike Haiti were Hurricane Inez of 1966, which hit southern Haiti as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds, killing 480 people; Hurricane Katie of 1955, which hit near the Haiti/Dominican Republic border with 115 mph winds, killing 7; and Hurricane Five of 1873, which hit the southwestern peninsula with 115 mph winds.


Figure 3.Two of 2008's four tropical cyclones that ravaged Haiti: Tropical Storm Hanna (right) and Hurricane Gustav (left). Image taken at 10:40 am EDT September 1, 2008. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Why does Haiti suffer a seemingly disproportionate number of flooding disasters? The answer in that in large part, these are not natural disasters--they are human-caused disasters. Haiti is the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere. With oil too expensive for the impoverished nation, charcoal from burnt trees has provided 85% or more of the energy in Haiti for decades. As a result, Haiti's 8 million poor have relentlessly hunted and chopped down huge amounts of forest, leaving denuded mountain slopes that rainwater washes down unimpeded. Back in 1980, Haiti still had 25% of its forests, allowing the nation to withstand heavy rain events like 1979's Category 3 Hurricane David without loss of life. But as of 2004, only 1.4% of Haiti's forests remained. Jeanne and Gordon were not even hurricanes--merely strong tropical storms--when they stuck Haiti, but the almost total lack of tree cover contributed to the devastating floods that killed thousands. And it doesn't even take a tropical storm to devastate Haiti--in May of 2004, three days of heavy rains from a tropical disturbance dumped more than 18 inches of rain in the mountains, triggering floods that killed over 2600 people.

What can be done to reduce these human-worsened natural disasters? Education and poverty eradication are critical to improving things. In addition, reforestation efforts and promotion of alternative fuels are needed.

In the past two decades, the U.S. Agency for International Development has planted some 60 million trees, while an estimated 10 to 20 million of these are cut down each year, according to the USAID director in Haiti, David Adams. If you're looking for a promising way to make a charitable donation to help Haitian flood victims, considering supporting the Lambi Fund of Haiti, which is very active in promoting reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level to help avert future flood disasters.

Organizations Active in Haitian Relief Efforts:
Portlight disaster relief
Lambi Fund of Haiti
Haiti Hope Fund
Catholic Relief Services of Haiti

Next update
I'll have an update later today if there is a significant change with Tomas to report. Otherwise, expect the next update Thursday morning.

Note that the section on Haiti's hurricane history is now a permanent link in the "Articles of interest" section on our Tropical & Hurricane web page.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Dakster:
Better data coming in. It looks like it is organizing and going North now.

The cold front is on its way through South Florida. it is raining and getting cooler out.(notice I didn't say it is COOL or COLD out, just not a stifling hot)

Heading about WNW according to vortex message.
scooster wins the prize...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 23:41Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 23:14:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°24'N 75°44'W (14.4N 75.7333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 258 miles (416 km) to the SSE (164°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 5kts (~ 5.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 2 nautical miles (2 statute miles) to the SSW (201°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 318° at 7kts (From the NW at ~ 8.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 50 nautical miles (58 statute miles) to the W (260°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 359m (1,178ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 362m (1,188ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) in the east quadrant at 20:47:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 14kts (~ 16.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:35:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Heading about WNW according to vortex message.


I guess I was looking at a wobble...
Quoting Dakster:
Better data coming in. It looks like it is organizing and going North now.

The cold front is on its way through South Florida. it is raining and getting cooler out.(notice I didn't say it is COOL or COLD out, just not a stifling hot)
Looks to me like the front is still in the gulf.
Thomas..short term reaction to approaching deep trough from NW increasing outflow dictates T will strengthen and grow quickly enough due to T's slow motion. followed by shearing AND being "scooped" out? OR not...leaving behind still unseasonably huge amount of moist heat content for Caribbean and tropical Atlantic to shed. PR weather discussion says Omega block is likely. Also relatively low surface air pressures from Miami to Yucatan to PR to Trinidad are being observed...billions of tons of water in the air...jus sayin
Quoting hydrus:
SO ARE POSTS TYPED IN ALL CAPITOLS.
that would be capitals
Why is the NHC not using the Hurricane Hunter's coordinates?
Quoting Dakster:
scooster wins the prize...
A million $$$
Quoting scooster67:
Looks to me like the front is still in the gulf.


When it approcahes we ge rain ahead of it and the weather starts to cool down. The actual front won't be here until I believe Saturday morning when our temps are supposed to go down to the upper 50's.
8:00 PM EDT Wed Nov 3
Location: 15.0°N 74.9°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb

Not criticizing the NHC, but do they have a different method/formula of decoding center fixes from the HHs, because it just doesn't add up to me.
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°24'N 75°44'W (14.4N 75.7333W)
Quoting stormpetrol:
8:00 PM EDT Wed Nov 3
Location: 15.0°N 74.9°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb

Not criticizing the NHC, but do they have a different method/formula of decoding center fixes from the HHs, because it just doesn't add up to me.

I thought I was the only one wondering.
Quoting Dakster:


When it approcahes we ge rain ahead of it and the weather starts to cool down. The actual front won't be here until I believe Saturday morning when our temps are supposed to go down to the upper 50's.
for sure ur sweat glands will be confused.
A little bit of Fall for us:

Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)

Nov 3 Tonight
Scattered thunderstorms. Low 76F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Nov 4 Tomorrow
Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. High 83F. Winds SSW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Nov 4 Tomorrow night
Scattered thunderstorms. A few storms may be severe. Low 69F. Winds WSW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
Nov 5 Friday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s.
Nov 6 Saturday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 60s.
Nov 7 Sunday
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Nov 8 Monday
Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 60s.
Nov 9 Tuesday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Nov 10 Wednesday
Plenty of sun. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Nov 11 Thursday
A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Nov 12 Friday
A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
I'm waiting on the rain.....rather crispy in SWFL west of I75
Two HH?

12 NOAA 11/03 23:49:00Z 1004.1mb (~29.65 inHg) 34kts (~39.1mph) 33kts (~37.9mph)

11 Air Force 11/03 23:50:30Z 1005.2mb (~29.68 inHg) 47kts (~54.0mph) 43kts (~49.4mph)
Quoting stormpetrol:
8:00 PM EDT Wed Nov 3
Location: 15.0°N 74.9°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb

Not criticizing the NHC, but do they have a different method/formula of decoding center fixes from the HHs, because it just doesn't add up to me.

The weather person on the HH is actually talking directly to the NHC so any center coordinates is directly reflected from the conversation they are having with the aircraft. You only see a fraction of what goes on with that data.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

Tomas to the left of official and model guidance.
Quoting alfabob:
Two HH?

12 NOAA 11/03 23:49:00Z 1004.1mb (~29.65 inHg) 34kts (~39.1mph) 33kts (~37.9mph)

11 Air Force 11/03 23:50:30Z 1005.2mb (~29.68 inHg) 47kts (~54.0mph) 43kts (~49.4mph)

Yep, one air force and one NOAA, however I think that the air force is leaving.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

The weather person on the HH is actually talking directly to the NHC so any center coordinates is directly reflected from the conversation they are having with the aircraft. You only see a fraction of what goes on with that data.

Shouldn't the vortex position be depicting exactly where the center is and if they decide to change they should put it in the notes?


"Cruel fate will not allow Haiti to escape the entire season unscathed, though, as a late-season November storm already proven to be a killer--Tomas--takes aim at Haiti"
from Doc Masters
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Tomas to the left of official and model guidance.


If you go by the Vortex plots... its well South of where they think it is.. I have no idea what the heck they are doing.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Shouldn't the vortex position be depicting exactly where the center is and if they decide to change they should put it in the notes?

not if they want to adjust due to lack of confidence in the data esspecially after looking a metsat and other data points.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

The weather person on the HH is actually talking directly to the NHC so any center coordinates is directly reflected from the conversation they are having with the aircraft. You only see a fraction of what goes on with that data.

Thank you, honestly as I said I was in now way criticizing the NHC, I was just wondering that's all!
Well, let's see what Kermit finds, should be there pretty soon.
Quoting stormpetrol:

Thank you, honestly as I said I was in now way criticizing the NHC, I was just wondering that's all!

Yea no worries...they have a tough job. It is easy to be a couch forecaster but when the world is looking at what you are doing and basing their decisions off of data and forecasts you put it, it is a lot harder. Just look at how critical so many other people (not you) are of the NHC but if they were in that chair they would probably freak and not realize how wrong they would be more often than not. The pressure of sending out that forecast makes you second guess yoruself sometimes.
Time: 00:05:00Z
Coordinates: 15.8833N 75.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 690.4 mb (~ 20.39 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,218 meters (~ 10,558 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1001.9 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 83° at 30 knots (From the E at ~ 34.5 mph)
Air Temp: 9.9°C (~ 49.8°F)
Dew Pt: 8.8°C (~ 47.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 32 knots (~ 36.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 37 knots* (~ 42.5 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 14 mm/hr* (~ 0.55 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

pressure here is interesting!
A nice blowup of convection just north of the putative CoC:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Does anyone realize that with a little luck Tomas might remain weak and actually provide beneficial rains to Haiti. This could encourage the growth of seedlings and grasses. It could flush out the cholera bearing rivers and streams. It could provide badly needed water supplies for livestock and agriculture. It could replenish reservoirs. With some luck this might not be a tragedy.
Time: 00:17:00Z
Coordinates: 15.0667N 75.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.1 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,149 meters (~ 10,331 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.6 mb (~ 29.61 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 247° at 4 knots (From the WSW at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 10.0°C (~ 50.0°F)
Dew Pt: 7.4°C (~ 45.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 4 knots (~ 4.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 13 knots (~ 14.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Most interesting data already!!
Quoting Neapolitan:
A nice blowup of convection just north of the putative CoC:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


Stop that... sheesh.. have to use a dictionary
Quoting Orcasystems:


If you go by the Vortex plots... its well South of where they think it is.. I have no idea what the heck they are doing.


I just want to know where it is going...LOL...there has been no change in tracks but center has changed??? HHs keep going in but there is not much info coming my way so I am confused!!!
Can someone please give me an idea of whether the turn toward Haiti is coming or if we should expect Tomas here?!?!?!?!



NEXRAD Radar
Lake Charles, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Does anyone realize that with a little luck Tomas might remain weak and actually provide beneficial rains to Haiti. This could encourage the growth of seedlings and grasses. It could flush out the cholera bearing rivers and streams. It could provide badly needed water supplies for livestock and agriculture. It could replenish reservoirs. With some luck this might not be a tragedy.


I understand your point and its a valid comment, there is always 2 sides to every story , but Haiti always seems to be on the wrong side of the story and history! SAD!!!
Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 00:17:00Z
Coordinates: 15.0667N 75.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.1 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,149 meters (~ 10,331 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.6 mb (~ 29.61 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 247 at 4 knots (From the WSW at ~ 4.6 mph)
Air Temp: 10.0C (~ 50.0F)
Dew Pt: 7.4C (~ 45.3F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 4 knots (~ 4.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 13 knots (~ 14.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Most interesting data already!!

Wind shift, lets see if a vort message follows.
First time in a day and a half we have seen a real center. They NHC has it, the plots are about correct, and it is beginning to crank up.


Quoting negriltracy:


I just want to know where it is going...LOL...there has been no change in tracks but center has changed??? HHs keep going in but there is not much info coming my way so I am confused!!!
Can someone please give me an idea of whether the turn toward Haiti is coming or if we should expect Tomas here?!?!?!?!
They really don't ave a clue. My recommendation is to prepare for the worse and pray for the best.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Does anyone realize that with a little luck Tomas might remain weak and actually provide beneficial rains to Haiti. This could encourage the growth of seedlings and grasses. It could flush out the cholera bearing rivers and streams. It could provide badly needed water supplies for livestock and agriculture. It could replenish reservoirs. With some luck this might not be a tragedy.
Agreed!
Radar out of Gran Piedra shows the first rains connected with Tomas brushing Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula.

And so it begins...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
1002.6mb
I see Thomas is coming in for a final Hurrah. and hopefully the final one of the season!
Report from Port Salut and Les Cayes indicated that's rain and wind are starting....
The one reason why Tomas made it a little farther south is because the West Gulf Low (regime) stalled and slowed down by 24 hours. Now the West Gulf Low is moving out and will be the primary driver for Tomas to move to the North and Northeast in no time. Not looking good for Haiti in my eyes but if there is good news it should be a little weaker.
Quoting ElConando:
I see Thomas is coming in for a final Hurrah. and hopefully the final one of the season!
Quoting Patrap:



NEXRAD Radar
Lake Charles, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI



I'll be a son of a gun! good to see the 2 of you back!
Time: 00:16:30Z
Coordinates: 15.1N 75.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.1 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,150 meters (~ 10,335 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.5 mb (~ 29.60 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 225° at 3 knots (From the SW at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 10.1°C (~ 50.2°F)
Dew Pt: 7.4°C (~ 45.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 3 knots (~ 3.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

JUst curious I notice the night flights are always around 10,000 feet or slightly above, Is this for safety reasons, I assume so, but I'm not sure
good evening guys
Quoting jcpoulard:
Report from Port Salut and Les Cayes indicated that's rain and wind are starting....


Thanks for the reports, it looks like we in the Turks & Caicos will get Tomas after he leaves your area.
Anyone have a Haiti radar link? TIA
ATCF just out says 40knots/1003mb @ 15.2N/75.1W:

AL, 21, 2010110400, , BEST, 0, 152N, 751W, 40, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 0, 1006, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TOMAS, S,
Quoting jcpoulard:
Report from Port Salut and Les Cayes indicated that's rain and wind are starting....
Are you in a safe place ?
Current Conditions


Owen Roberts Airportgrand Cayman, Cayman Islands (Airport)
Updated: 50 min 32 sec ago
28 °C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 25 °C
Wind: 9 km/h / from the East

Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 1008 hPa
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
Clouds: Few 540 m
Mostly Cloudy 3600 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 3 m

Rapid Fire Updates:

Pressure is even low here!
TropicalStormTomas's heading turned westward to (0.8degrees north of) NorthWest
from it's previous heading of (4.7degrees north of) EastNorthEast
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~3.3mph(~5.4km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~5mph(~8km/h)
TS.Tomas
3Nov. 12amGMT - 13.5n75.0w - 40mph_(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#19A
3Nov. 03amGMT - 13.7n75.1w - 40mph_(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#20
3Nov. 06amGMT - 13.2n75.2w - 40mph_(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#20A
TD.Tomas
3Nov. 09amGMT - 13.5n75.5w - 35mph_(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#21
3Nov. 12pmGMT - 13.7n75.8w - 35mph_(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#21A
3Nov. 03pmGMT - 14.1n75.9w - 35mph_(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#22
3Nov. 06pmGMT - 14.8n75.0w - 35mph_(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#22A
TS.Tomas
3Nov. 09pmGMT - 14.9n74.8w - 45mph_(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#23
4Nov. 12amGMT - 15.0n74.9w - 45mph_(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#23A

Copy&paste 13.5n75.0w-13.7n75.1w, 13.7n75.1w-13.2n75.2w, 13.2n75.2w-13.5n75.5w, 13.5n75.5w-13.7n75.8w, 13.7n75.8w-14.1n75.9w, 14.1n75.9w-14.8n75.0w, 14.8n75.0w-14.9n74.8w, 14.9n74.8w-15.0n74.9w, mbj, bqn, 15.0n74.9w-18.21n78.19w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 24^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~3days&20hours from now to LittleLondon near SavannaLaMar, Jamaica
after skimming eyewall close along the southwestern coastline

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Product: NOAA Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 00:37Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number: 21
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 04

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 0:37Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 13.9N 74.9W
Location: 310 miles (499 km) to the SSE (156°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 3,060 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 230° at 19 knots (From the SW at ~ 21.8 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 9°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 8°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Clear
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,116 geopotential meters
No vort message yet.
Quoting aspectre:
>Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~3daysdays&20hours from now to LittleLondon near SavannaLaMar, Jamaica



WHAT???
question,

does anyone know of anyway to get funding for a scientific research project?

thanks

matt
Quoting tornadodude:
question,

does anyone know of anyway to get funding for a scientific research project?

thanks

matt

Have to be associated with a university and apply for grants. You do not have to be the professor but have to be an understudy. that is the best way.
Its kinda hard not to see Tomas being pulled North with that trough over the Gulf, hopefully our friends in Haiti, cuz I have a few will be spared a disaster in the making! PS. But stranger things have happened, Tomas for example has behaved quite differently than expected, too bad the end could have the same results as initially suspected!!
Quoting stormpetrol:
Current Conditions


Owen Roberts Airportgrand Cayman, Cayman Islands (Airport)
Updated: 50 min 32 sec ago
28 °C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 25 °C
Wind: 9 km/h / from the East

Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 1008 hPa
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
Clouds: Few 540 m
Mostly Cloudy 3600 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 3 m

Rapid Fire Updates:

Pressure is even low here!
East End showing 1006 mb with winds at 11 mph ESE.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Have to be associated with a university and apply for grants. You do not have to be the professor but have to be an understudy. that is the best way.



hmmm, alright, thanks!
Quoting tornadodude:



hmmm, alright, thanks!


I am sure there are other ways but going through universities, that is where the bulk of the research is done.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
East End showing 1006 mb with winds at 11 mph ESE.

I think we can expect some rain either from the cold front or extended bands from Tomas or maybe a combo!
Blue Wall from the Gom, to face Tomas - But notice that low from Africa....

tommy w/be a major at this time tomorrow imo...
From what I can tell Tomas has the perfect conditions to organize and intensify, JMO.
Quoting stillwaiting:
tommy w/be a major at this time tomorrow imo...
A major fizz? Possibly
Time: 00:56:00Z
Coordinates: 14.95N 73.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 693.3 mb* (~ 20.47 inHg*)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,202 meters* (~ 10,505 feet*)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 193° at 31 knots (From the SSW at ~ 35.6 mph)
Air Temp: 9.1°C* (~ 48.4°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 33 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 37 knots (~ 42.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
I think we can say now that Puerto Rico is finally out of the woods. I'm very sad for Haiti and DR specially. Lot's of casualties can be expected in those Countries.
Quoting stormpetrol:
From what I can tell Tomas has the perfect conditions to organize and intensify, JMO.
I say it will peak at 80 to 90 MPH
65 more Judge Judy's to catch up on.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Blue Wall from the Gom, to face Tomas - But notice that low from Africa....

What's going to happen when Blue hits Red?
Quoting aspectre:
TropicalStormTomas's heading turned westward to (0.8degrees north of) NorthWest
from it's previous heading of (4.7degrees north of) EastNorthEast
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~3.3mph(~5.4km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~5mph(~8km/h)
TS.Tomas
3Nov. 12amGMT - 13.5n75.0w - 40mph_(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#19A
3Nov. 03amGMT - 13.7n75.1w - 40mph_(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#20
3Nov. 06amGMT - 13.2n75.2w - 40mph_(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#20A
TD.Tomas
3Nov. 09amGMT - 13.5n75.5w - 35mph_(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#21
3Nov. 12pmGMT - 13.7n75.8w - 35mph_(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#21A
3Nov. 03pmGMT - 14.1n75.9w - 35mph_(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#22
3Nov. 06pmGMT - 14.8n75.0w - 35mph_(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#22A
TS.Tomas
3Nov. 09pmGMT - 14.9n74.8w - 45mph_(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#23
4Nov. 12amGMT - 15.0n74.9w - 45mph_(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#23A

Copy&paste 13.5n75.0w-13.7n75.1w, 13.7n75.1w-13.2n75.2w, 13.2n75.2w-13.5n75.5w, 13.5n75.5w-13.7n75.8w, 13.7n75.8w-14.1n75.9w, 14.1n75.9w-14.8n75.0w, 14.8n75.0w-14.9n74.8w, 14.9n74.8w-15.0n74.9w, mbj, bqn, 15.0n74.9w-18.21n78.19w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 24^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~3days&20hours from now to LittleLondon near SavannaLaMar, Jamaica
after skimming eyewall close along the southwestern coastline

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.


Please can you explain this method to non-mets. Storms don't travel in a straight line but I'm sure there's something to this that I don't understand.
Poll Time:
Will Tomas Make It To A Category 3 or More?
(A) YES, Cat.3
(B) YES, Cat.4
(C) YES, Cat.5
(D) NO

Tomas should be a ________ at the 11 pm.
(A) 40 MPH Tropical Storm
(B) 45 MPH Tropical Storm
(C) 50 MPH Tropical Storm
(D) 55 MPH Tropical Storm
(E) 60 MPH Tropical Storm
(F) 65 or 70 MPH Tropical Storm
(G) Hurricane

(I know I have done this before but,)
Do You think we will exhaust the naming list this year?
(A) YES, And Get to the Greek Alphabet
(B) YES, But Stop At Walter
(C) NO, We will only see Virginie
(D) NO, Tomas Will Be The Last Storm



I Think it will be D - No, C - 50 MPH, and B - Yes
580. 7544
is tomas still moving west and notice on the wu model page the NGFL model yellow line takes tomas over jamacia north on to so fla is that in play now tia
Quoting scooster67:
What's going to happen when Blue hits Red?


Have to check a color chart....

Interesting Angle of attack of that wall...
hmm pressures here in West bay now at 1006mb
Quoting tornadodude:
question,

does anyone know of anyway to get funding for a scientific research project?

thanks

matt

Link

Here Tdude, he says hes always looking for projects!
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
I think we can say now that Puerto Rico is finally out of the woods. I'm very sad for Haiti and DR specially. Lot's of casualties can be expected in those Countries.

Very unlikely but nothing is for certain, Don't holler til you really get out the woods!
Quoting 7544:
is tomas still moving west and notice on the wu model page the NGFL model yellow line takes tomas over jamacia north on to so fla is that in play now tia
no if you look at the NHC advisory it says NNW at 6
So what ever happened to that low NHC was chasing earlier?

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:

Link

Here Tdude, he says hes always looking for projects!


thanks man!
Quoting sunlinepr:
If you watch the IR Rainbow loop it shows deep convection wrapping around the east, North, and South. watching for it to sustain before i say ITS AN EYEWALL!!!!
590. 7544
40k now
Time: 01:14:30Z
Coordinates: 15.4833N 74.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 693.5 mb* (~ 20.48 inHg*)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,190 meters* (~ 10,466 feet*)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 173° at 38 knots (From the S at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: 9.4°C* (~ 48.9°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 41 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 12 mm/hr (~ 0.47 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
557 aspectre "Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~3daysdays&20hours from now to LittleLondon near SavannaLaMar, Jamaica

560 negriltracy "WHAT???"

A straightline projection is NOT a forecast. TropicalCyclones do not travel in straight lines.
It merely tells one where the storm was going based on the coordinates of 2 positions spanning (in this case) 3hours of travel.
Kinda like spotting a car headed east on the 10 freeway between SantaMonica,California and Jacksonville,Florida. That doesn't tell you that the car will pass through NewOrleans... cuz the driver is most likely to pull off onto another road before then.
also,

anyone know where i can watch the discovery channel online?
Quoting alfabob:
So what ever happened to that low NHC was chasing earlier?

was taken out by shear
Quoting tornadodude:


If you create a project like the weather ballon with a camera & GPS, and you liberate it into a tornado, you will have to decide if you want the ballon to go up into the super cell and go far away, or you want to burst the ballon, so that your camera falls down in a relative short distance.... Either way, I want to watch that video....
Quoting aspectre:
557 aspectre "Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~3daysdays&20hours from now to LittleLondon near SavannaLaMar, Jamaica

560 negriltracy "WHAT???"

A straightline projection is NOT a forecast. TropicalCyclones do not travel in straight lines.

It merely tells one where the storm was going (in this case, for 3hours). Kinda like spotting a car headed east on the 10 freeway between SantaMonica,California and Jacksonville,Florida. That doesn't tell you that the car will pass through NewOrleans cuz the driver is most likely to pull off onto another road before then.


Yeah, you would want to go on I-12 and bypass NOLA and save a couple hours.
It'll take a few more satellite frames to be sure, but it appears that Tomas is taking advantage of today's DMIN diet to shed enough weight to allow him to spin up quicker (you know, the Law of Conservation of Angular Momentum, and all that). It's going to be very interesting to see whether we wake up to a TD, a weak TS, or even a strong TS on its way to a hurricane...
From what im seeing on recon, still at 45 MPH. Theyre making a dead on track toward the center right now to get a central pressure reading.
Quoting Neapolitan:
It'll take a few more satellite frames to be sure, but it appears that Tomas is taking advantage of today's DMIN diet to shed enough weight to allow him to spin up quicker (you know, the Law of Conservation of Angular Momentum, and all that). It's going to be very interesting to see whether we wake up to a TD, a weak TS, or even a strong TS on its way to a hurricane...


IC, sometimes you worry me.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
If you watch the IR Rainbow loop it shows deep convection wrapping around the east, North, and South. watching for it to sustain before i say ITS AN EYEWALL!!!!


That Gif animation has to be updated....
The link to obtain it is:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/marti.html

click on Trop. Storm Thomas and select 24 or 48 hrs... Copy link to the blog....
Quoting sunlinepr:
Quoting tornadodude:


If you create a project like the weather ballon with a camera & GPS, and you liberate it into a tornado, you will have to decide if you want the ballon to go up into the super cell and go far away, or you want to burst the ballon, so that your camera falls down in a relative short distance.... Either way, I want to watch that video....


not exactly what I have in mind, but we'll see what happens!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
From what im seeing on recon, still at 45 MPH. Theyre making a dead on track toward the center right now to get a central pressure reading.




Quoting HurricaneDean07:
was taken out by shear


That may have killed off the convection (or the circulation), but I was watching it head west at a moderate speed ~20 hours ago. There is an area of convergence around 12.5N, 80W, which also has some rotation associated with it. I believe that this may be a future area of interest, as the NHC measured it as a TD around the time I was tracking it. Trough lifts Tomas NE, maybe stalling at some point and heading back; while the high pressure builds in above this "TD", sending it W/NW.

Looks like a northward trek:

Quoting Orcasystems:




yep, and there you have it, Thanks Orca, keeping an eye on that GOOGLE EARTH!!! very interesting software that we can see on google earth, but its so helpful to me!!!
this is gonna be a damned nightmare
Link
Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 00:16:30Z
Coordinates: 15.1N 75.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 696.1 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,150 meters (~ 10,335 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.5 mb (~ 29.60 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 225 at 3 knots (From the SW at ~ 3.4 mph)
Air Temp: 10.1C (~ 50.2F)
Dew Pt: 7.4C (~ 45.3F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 3 knots (~ 3.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

JUst curious I notice the night flights are always around 10,000 feet or slightly above, Is this for safety reasons, I assume so, but I'm not sure


FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42
A. 04/0000Z
B. NOAA2 1221A TOMAS
C. 03/2000Z
D. NA
E. 04/0000Z TO 04/0200Z
F. 12,000 FT

It's an NOAA plane that fly's research in addition to storm fixes.
Quoting tornadodude:


thanks man!


of course! is your project a secret or you mind emailing me about it?
In case you were wondering, I believe this is the correct way to categorize a Tropical Storm:

40 mph - 50 (51) mph - WEAK

50 mph - 60 mph - MODERATE

60 (61) - 70 mph - STRONG
We have a COC :)
Vortex to follow at 1003 I bet
Blog is eating posts.
I could have sworn someone answered me and now I can't find it. :-(
I think I'll see 50-60 mph TS Tomas in the morning (8AM)
Quoting Orcasystems:
We have a COC :)
Vortex to follow at 1003 I bet



01:32:30Z 15.283N 75.383W 694.6 mb
(~ 20.51 inHg) 3,170 meters
(~ 10,400 feet) 1002.4 mb
(~ 29.60 inHg)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



01:32:30Z 15.283N 75.383W 694.6 mb
(~ 20.51 inHg) 3,170 meters
(~ 10,400 feet) 1002.4 mb
(~ 29.60 inHg)


Yes, and a couple 1002.6+, so i think they will go with 1003
All the Major Models have another system coming in the Caribbean following Tomas in 5 days. Isn't that just nice. DAng
Quoting Orcasystems:


Yes, and a couple 1002.6+, so i think they will go with 1003


Probably, surely getting stronger though.
Check Out the VMAX Estimation - 48 MPH
48 Hour:

24 Hour:
Low Pressure West of NOLA tonight




TOMAS

Rainbow



WV

For those that have not seen it...

ABNT30 KNHC 011133
TWSAT
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON NOV 01 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

FIVE TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH
OF OCTOBER...ALL OF WHICH BECAME HURRICANES. THESE NUMBERS ARE
FAR ABOVE THE LONG-TERM (1944-2009) AVERAGES OF 2 TROPICAL STORMS
AND 1 HURRICANE. THE NUMBER OF HURRICANES WAS ONLY ONE BELOW THE
RECORD OF 6 WHICH WAS OBSERVED IN OCTOBER 1870. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...ACE...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN OCTOBER WAS ABOUT 40 PERCENT ABOVE AVERAGE.
MANY OF THE HURRICANES WERE SHORT-LIVED AND DID NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH
TO THE ACE.

SO FAR THIS SEASON...OVERALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY TO DATE IS
ABOUT 164 PERCENT OF THE LONG-TERM MEDIAN.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE
LETTERS...HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2010ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
----------------------------------------------------
H ALEX 25 JUN-2 JUL 105
TD TWO 7-8 JUL 35
TS BONNIE 22-24 JUL 40
TS COLIN 2-8 AUG 60
TD FIVE 10-11 AUG 35
MH DANIELLE 21-31 AUG 135
MH EARL 25 AUG-5 SEP 145
TS FIONA 30 AUG-4 SEP 60
TS GASTON 1-2 SEP 40
TS HERMINE 6-8 SEP 65
MH IGOR 8-21 SEP 155
MH JULIA 12-20 SEP 135
MH KARL 14-18 SEP 120
H LISA 21-26 SEP 80
TS MATTHEW 23-26 SEP 60
TS NICOLE 28-29 SEP 40
H OTTO 6-10 OCT 85
H PAULA 11-15 OCT 100
H RICHARD 21-26 OCT 90
H SHARY 29-30 OCT 75
H TOMAS 29 OCT - 100

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE/BERG/STEWART
Quoting TampaSpin:
All the Major Models have another system coming in the Caribbean following Tomas in 5 days. Isn't that just nice. DAng


They do?
625. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


They do?


Yep, seems to come from the disturbance entering the Caribbean.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Check Out the VMAX Estimation - 48 MPH
48 Hour:

24 Hour:


I believe Tomas is approaching 50 mph
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


They do?


Yep......you can see them at my blog

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/TampaSpin/show.html
697
fxus64 klix 032100
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
400 PM CDT Wednesday Nov 3 2010


Short term...


Some isolated convection has begun to develop in the area the past
hour...as the atmosphere becomes more destabilized due to daytime
heating. This heating is a bit stronger than expected...as skies
have turned partly cloudy across most of the forecast area.
Convection should continue to increase in coverage through the
late afternoon and evening hours...as the cold core of the upper
level low currently over the Upper Texas coast moves through
Louisiana. The cold core will allow for steeper lapse rates and a
bit more instability tonight. As a result...expected the scattered
convection to continue through the overnight hours.


As the low pulls to the east of the region...due to feeling the
influence of a very strong upper level trough digging through the
plains and Midwest into the eastern third of the nation...a strong
cold front associated with this upper level trough will sweep
through the forecast area. The front should completely clear the
area by middle-day tomorrow. In the wake of the front...strong winds
aloft will be transported to the surface due to a combination of
strong subsidence and cold air advection. Models indicate that 850mb
winds of 40+ knots and 700mb winds of 50+ knots on the back of a
strong jet streak diving down the western side of the trough axis
will develop over the area Thursday afternoon and remain in place
through Friday evening. These strong winds aloft will mix down to
the surface with sustained winds of 20 to 25 miles per hour and gusts over 30
miles per hour expected from Thursday afternoon to Friday evening. A Wind
Advisory may be needed for portions of the forecast area in the
future.


The strong cold air advection will allow 1000-500mb thicknesses to
fall a good 100 meters Thursday into Thursday night. Temperatures
will fall well below normal...with overnight lows plunging into
the lower to middle 30s for areas away from the coast and tidal
lakes and low dipping into the lower 40s elsewhere. With strong
winds in place...wind chills will easily drop into the 20s
Thursday and Friday nights. Fortunately...it appears that the
duration of near freezing temperatures over northern zones will be
short-lived enough to prohibit a freeze.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


of course! is your project a secret or you mind emailing me about it?


Id like it to be fairly secret, but i dont mind emailing you about it
Quoting tornadodude:


Id like it to be fairly secret, but i dont mind emailing you about it


ok sounds good, Ill be looking forward to reading it!
Quoting presslord:
this is gonna be a damned nightmare
Link


Beyond that. Like a nightmare, in a nightmare, all occurring in a nightmare.

These are cholera beds; the hole is for the nearly continuous diarrhea. Also usually in a cholera ward they are covered in plastic and accompanied by bucket next to the bed for vomit.




Its not something you would ever want or wish on anyone.

This is incredibly bad timing.
im taking a look at levi's comment on his youtube video that says, when storms leave from the caribbean to the North they usually leave a piece behind; so basically Tomas should give Fuel to his little cousin Virginie. Although it seems a little unlikely to me because that closed low is going to clear out everything in front of it. I Give it a 20% of occurring at all. This Trough Is the first of many to sweep through the Gulf And Caribbean. Say Goodbye to the hurricane Season pattern and Welcome Back to the Late Fall, Winter, And Early Spring Pattern!
Going to be a bitter and windy winter if these Northern lows keep coming over me! only got to 56 F today and the winds gusted up to 35 to 40!
they said its going to be even windier tomorrow. :o/ dont think i can last that long, i dont see how you people up north can take these cold sub zero and freezing temps!
Quoting kimoskee:
Blog is eating posts.
I could have sworn someone answered me and now I can't find it. :-(


See post 592. I answered in 593, but since the original poster put up the answer 1 post prior, I removed it.
Tenacious Tomas threatens Jamaica and Haiti-Portlight.org Haiti Relief Effort

* November 2nd, 2010 9:08 pm CT




Jamaican "Nationwide 90 FM" out of Kingston, Jamaica conducted a telephone interview with Dr Jeff Masters from Weather Underground late this afternoon. Dr Masters stated that Jamaica and Hispaniola are at a high risk of serious impacts, beginning Thursday evening through the afternoon hours on Saturday.

Spotlight: Potential Haiti impacts-Portlight.org Relief Agency in Haiti beginning preparations

Haiti was rocked by a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on January 12, 2010, causing over 300,000 deaths, causing widespread property damage, especially in Port Au Prince. Haiti currently has over 1.5 million residents living in sub-standard housing, many living in tent cities or in some cases protected from the elements by a single bed sheet. Clean water and sanitation are non-existent in many areas, as a cholera outbreak has recently claimed many deaths.

While some relief agencies are pulling out temporarily due to the approach of Tomas, one agency, Portlight.org is sending a portable kitchen to Port Au Prince, Haiti tonight and moving the elderly and disabled to safe shelter, approximately 3 miles outside Port Au Prince at this very hour. This portable kitchen can provide up to 500 hot meals a day for disaster victims.

Portlight.org is a non-profit organization, headed by Paul Timmons, based in Charleston, SC. Portlight specializes in helping the disabled, the elderly, poor, needy victims of natural disasters, the forgotten.
HH is back tracking right back into the Centre
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
im taking a look at levi's comment on his youtube video that says, when storms leave from the caribbean to the North they usually leave a piece behind; so basically Tomas should give Fuel to his little cousin Virginie. Although it seems a little unlikely to me because that closed low is going to clear out everything in front of it. I Give it a 20% of occurring at all. This Trough Is the first of many to sweep through the Gulf And Caribbean. Say Goodbye to the hurricane Season pattern and Welcome Back to the Late Fall, Winter, And Early Spring Pattern!
Going to be a bitter and windy winter if these Northern lows keep coming over me! only got to 56 F today and the winds gusted up to 35 to 40!
they said its going to be even windier tomorrow. :/ dont think i can last that long, i dont see how you people up north can take these cold sub zero and freezing temps!


I take those cold temps with pleasure! I'm opposite of you, I don't know how you guys down south live with heat indexes in the
100's forweeks and months on end, I'd melt:)
Quoting nocaneindy:


I take those cold temps with pleasure! I'm opposite of you, I don't know how you guys down south live with heat indexes in the
100's forweeks and months on end, I'd melt:)


chance of snow showers tomorrow night! lol
Quoting tornadodude:


chance of snow showers tomorrow night! lol


You know it!! Can't wait! It may not stick around, but at least it means we're getting closer to when it will!
Recon made a sharp 180.
Quoting tornadodude:


chance of snow showers tomorrow night! lol


YOur still a boilermaker correct. My home state!
Quoting nocaneindy:


You know it!! Can't wait! It may not stick around, but at least it means we're getting closer to when it will!


It probably won't. La Nina makes the southern and southeast US warmer than average during the winter. Occasional cold spells can be expected, as occurred, for instance, in 1999 and 2000. But the general trend should still be anomalous warmth.
Time: 01:30:00Z
Coordinates: 15.2833N 75.2W
Acft. Static Air Press: 694.5 mb (~ 20.51 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,173 meters (~ 10,410 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.0 mb (~ 29.62 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 104° at 0 knots (From the ESE at ~ 0.0 mph)
Air Temp: 9.8°C (~ 49.6°F)
Dew Pt: 9.1°C (~ 48.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 1 knots (~ 1.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 25 knots (~ 28.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

possible center, I don't know!
Quoting nocaneindy:


I take those cold temps with pleasure! I'm opposite of you, I don't know how you guys down south live with heat indexes in the
100's forweeks and months on end, I'd melt:)
Lol, we survive, even if it means rashining water supply during droughts, This year was so nice! the La Nina brought us perfect conditions all summer long, all we saw were 4 days of 100 degree temps and a occasional drizzle every now and then. so much better than 09 when the el nino brought severe drought and extreme 100 degree temps, 58 consecutive days of 100 degrees +! and the highest temp here was 109! thats hot here!!! Really HOT!
Quoting nocaneindy:


You know it!! Can't wait! It may not stick around, but at least it means we're getting closer to when it will!


haha im ready!

Quoting TampaSpin:


YOur still a boilermaker correct. My home state!


actually taking at least this semester off, but still in good ole Daviess County
Quoting Orcasystems:


Yes, and a couple 1002.6+, so i think they will go with 1003
if it's 1002.4 it would estimately about 1002.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It probably won't. La Nina makes the southern and southeast US warmer than average during the winter. Occasional cold spells can be expected, as occurred, for instance, in 1999 and 2000. But the general trend should still be anomalous warmth.


Up here in Indiana, I figure we'll still get our share of snow, but that anomalous warm air you mention worries me too, in the form of an ice storm like we got in 2005.
Heavy rains will be spreading over the west coast of Florida starting now through the early morning hours. Storms will feature constant lightning, small hail, and very gusty winds.

This is great considering we haven't had much rain over the past two months at all.
Quoting tornadodude:


haha im ready!



actually taking at least this semester off, but still in good ole Daviess County


Long time since i have heard that......LOL..MOther and family still live in Southern Indiana.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
if it's 1002.4 it would estimately about 1002.


They are back tracking down the same path again, and no Vortex message yet... so I guess they are double checking.
Mission Number = 12
Agency = NOAA
Time = 11/04 01:49:00Z
Lowest Extrapolated Surface Pressure = 1001.2mb (~29.57 inHg)
Highest Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s Avg.)= 38kts (~43.7mph)
Highest SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind = 40kts (~46.0mph)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Lol, we survive, even if it means rashining water supply during droughts, This year was so nice! the La Nina brought us perfect conditions all summer long, all we saw were 4 days of 100 degree temps and a occasional drizzle every now and then. so much better than 09 when the el nino brought severe drought and extreme 100 degree temps, 58 consecutive days of 100 degrees +! and the highest temp here was 109! thats hot here!!! Really HOT!


Yep.. I couldn't do it, I just cannot take the heat! This past summer about did me in up here, we were hot!
1002mb imo.
Quoting nocaneindy:


Up here in Indiana, I figure we'll still get our share of snow, but that anomalous warm air you mention worries me too, in the form of an ice storm like we got in 2005.


Yeah, that warm air can definitely work against you guys up north.

Also, for some reason, I was thinking you were in Louisiana. lol
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Beyond that. Like a nightmare, in a nightmare, all occurring in a nightmare.

These are cholera beds; the hole is for the nearly continuous diarrhea also usually in a cholera ward they are covered in plastic and accompanied by bucket next to the bed for vomit.




Its not something you would ever want or wish on anyone.

This is incredibly bad timing.
thats some bad symtoms, really hate to be in Haiti right now, this is not been haiti's year, every dog has it's bad days but this isnt just a day, its more like kicking the dog around a lot. lets count shall we,
1. Earthquake of 7.0 Magnitude destroying most of the country and then the 45 aftershocks to put salt in the wound.
2. Chlora killing over 400 people and still spreading.
3. TOMAS heading for Haiti and could kill even more people.

my heart goes out to all you haitians, happy that at least were helping out Haiti in their most desperate time in their country's history.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Long time since i have heard that......LOL..MOther and family still live in Southern Indiana.


it's a nice area lol
Normally during LaNina the Bermuda High stays very close and strong off the SE ConUs keeping the SE much warmer during the Winter. Often extends the Cane season as well!
Quoting nocaneindy:


Yep.. I couldn't do it, I just cannot take the heat! This past summer about did me in up here, we were hot!
i can imagine, everything seems to be opposite during different climate changes.

La Nina - Hotter North, Cooler South
El Nino - Violent Heat South, Cool and a lot of snow during the winter up north.
wonder what a neutral would be? LOL
Quoting tornadodude:


it's a nice area lol


How far from Madison, In. are you? I was there once during a festival, and have never met a nicer populace.
Quoting nocaneindy:


How far from Madison, In. are you? I was there once during a festival, and have never met a nicer populace.


eh, probably an hour and a half to the southwest
Quoting presslord:
this is gonna be a damned nightmare
Link


Not a nightmare: you can wake up from a nightmare. I don't have a word for this. It is beyond my vocabulary.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, that warm air can definitely work against you guys up north.

Also, for some reason, I was thinking you were in Louisiana. lol


Funny enough, I was born in Louisiana, family moved up here in the 80's. Unfortunately,I've never had the pleasure of going back.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
i can imagine, everything seems to be opposite during different climate changes.

La Nina - Hotter North, Cooler South
El Nino - Violent Heat South, Cool and a lot of snow during the winter up north.
wonder what a neutral would be? LOL


?

La Nina: Cool North, Cold Northwest, Warm South.

El Nino: Warm North, Cool South
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
i can imagine, everything seems to be opposite during different climate changes.

La Nina - Hotter North, Cooler South
El Nino - Violent Heat South, Cool and a lot of snow during the winter up north.
wonder what a neutral would be? LOL
i can agree that i cant take t heat that is 102+ but if the wind is blowing im all good. The thing i really was irritated by today was the constant North Winds Blowing at 40 MPH! i was outside for about 1 hour or so and when i got inside it took about 10 mintues for me to get the feeling back in them. Today's Status:
Hi: 56
Lo: 50
RAINY AND WINDY!

Tomorrow's Forecast:
Hi: 70(THANK YOU MOTHER NATURE!!!)
Lo: 43(BRRRRRRRR!!!!)
SUNNY AND STRONG NORTH WIND WITH GUST OF 30 MPH
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
i can imagine, everything seems to be opposite during different climate changes.

La Nina - Hotter North, Cooler South
El Nino - Violent Heat South, Cool and a lot of snow during the winter up north.
wonder what a neutral would be? LOL


I believe you have that completely wrong. I believe it is just the opposite. I believe so!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Normally during LaNina the Bermuda High stays very close and strong off the SE ConUs keeping the SE much warmer during the Winter. Often extends the Cane season as well!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


?

La Nina: Cool North, Cold Northwest, Warm South.

El Nino: Warm North, Cool South


exactly
Quoting TampaSpin:


I believe you have that completely wrong. I believe it is just the opposite. I believe so!


Yes, it is backwards.

And who knows what would happen in a neutral year, lol, it's been so daym long since we've had neutral for any length of time.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I believe you have that completely wrong. I believe it is just the opposite. I believe so!


Yeah, our problem this summer was the high down there kept funneling the heat up this way.
We were in the 90's for I forget the actual number, but way more than normal. Maybe just an anomalous La Nina year?
This makes no sense...

Wednesday:
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 73.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I believe you have that completely wrong. I believe it is just the opposite. I believe so!

I understand that these climate events don't specifically do these things but, in the past two years this has been what the status has been over the summer and winter.
578 kimoskee "Please can you explain this method to non-mets. Storms don't travel in a straight line but I'm sure there's something to this that I don't understand."

I'm a non-met whose attitude toward the NHC has been "Trust but verify" since the HurricaneIke fiasco.
Take a look at my earlier answers to similar questions in blog1555page38comment1853 and in blog1573page12comment553
If you need clarification*, just ask.

* Hard to edit yourself cuz ya know what ya meant to say, and read what ya meant to say into your own writings as if that is what ya actually wrote.

US naval ship heads to Haiti as tropical storm approaches

(AFP) 1 day ago



WASHINGTON A US naval ship on Tuesday headed toward Haiti to offer humanitarian help in case Tropical Storm Tomas strikes the country as forecast, the military said.

As Haiti prepared to evacuate tens of thousands ahead of the storm, naval commanders ordered the USS Iwo Jima to steam toward Haiti from Suriname.


USS Iwo Jima

The amphibious ship has eight CH-46 Sea Knight helicopters and two MH-60 night Hawk choppers and a crew of 1,600, including medical and engineering teams ready to assist in relief efforts after the storm strikes, the US Navy said in a statement.

The military often deploys the versatile amphibious ships for humanitarian missions, as aid supplies and emergency medical teams can be ferried quickly to shore without need of a local airport.

Forecasters said Tomas was expected to regain strength and reach Haiti possibly by Friday.

The storm's violent winds, heavy rain and landslides pose a particular risk to the up to 1.3 million people who inhabit the makeshift tent city camps set up after Haiti's devastating earthquake in January.

Global relief agencies stepped up emergency plans to protect up to 500,000 Haitians from a tropical storm forecast to hit the country which is also facing a cholera epidemic.

Haiti has already suffered the double blow this year of a devastating earthquake that levelled parts of the capital, killing 250,000 people, in January, as well as an unprecedented cholera epidemic that has infected more than 4,700 people further north and killed 337 since late October.

Copyright 2010 AFP. All rights reserved
Ugh not good -- cholera is a water-borne disease, and if Haiti gets a lot of rain, it could cause a cholera epidemic (worse than we have right now). Everything about this situation is just bad.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This makes no sense...

Wednesday:
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 73.


20% chance of rain? I'd bring the sunscreen if I we're you. At least if there is a freak shower the MET can say it was in the forecast, lol.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Yes, it is backwards.

And who knows what would happen in a neutral year, lol, it's been so daym long since we've had neutral for any length of time.
very true
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This makes no sense...

Wednesday:
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 73.

For what location?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I understand that these climate events don't specifically do these things but, in the past two years this has been what the status has been over the summer and winter.


For sure not true in Florida......last year was very cold which we was in an El Nino period. I have no idea what you are saying in your area but, The conditions in Florida was very much true to form.
Haiti news in English
Link
Quoting Neapolitan:

For what location?


My area - Fort Worth, Tx
Lovely


02:22:00Z 15.350N 74.400W
54 knots
(~ 62.1 mph)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Lovely


02:22:00Z 15.350N 74.400W
54 knots
(~ 62.1 mph)


Surface or flight level winds?
Seems they are having some issues locating the center?
Vortex report will be at 1004mb

TOMAS 00Z Dynamic Models




Quoting Distrakted:


Surface or flight level winds?


That is a surface wind from SFMR

Could be a gust but, there was a steady climb to the reading and steady decline.
Quoting hurristat:
Ugh not good -- cholera is a water-borne disease, and if Haiti gets a lot of rain, it could cause a cholera epidemic (worse than we have right now). Everything about this situation is just bad.
hate to say it but, Haiti has had more people dead in the past year than ive ever seen in a country in north america.
225,000 in Earthquake +
441 Dead So Far By Cholera = TOO MANY PEOPLE DEAD!!!

i find this so scary for a country to loose so many people in one year!
although the have 9 million people...
Quoting Orcasystems:


They are back tracking down the same path again, and no Vortex message yet... so I guess they are double checking.
lol, never hurts to check twice!
In the memory of Andy Irons - Middles Beach, Isabela PR

These are the peak readings so far on mission 12

12 NOAA 11/04 02:19:00Z 1001.2mb (~29.57 inHg) Flight level = 38kts (~43.7mph) SFMR = 54kts (~62.1mph)
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Lovely


02:22:00Z 15.350N 74.400W
54 knots
(~ 62.1 mph)
HOLY COW Where'd the HH Find That, didnt expect to see a 60 MPH Sustained, or was it flight level...
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Beyond that. Like a nightmare, in a nightmare, all occurring in a nightmare.

These are cholera beds; the hole is for the nearly continuous diarrhea. Also usually in a cholera ward they are covered in plastic and accompanied by bucket next to the bed for vomit.




Its not something you would ever want or wish on anyone.

This is incredibly bad timing.
It depends on how long this thing lingers on top of them.

Cholera kills so quickly, that it can spread like a wildfire, killing thousands over night. The truly scary thing, is that if you're in fairly good health, cholera can live in your gut without causing you harm, but if you're weak, that's when it gets you.

These people could be severely weakened by days of heavy rain, in the open, or by being clustered and cramped together in shelters for any length of time, without adequate sanitation, due to the the overwhelming and sudden increase in the concentration of waste.

These people were spread out, but now they're about to come together. It's the perfect setup for cholera. The only solution is tons of fresh clean water and food, and it's not in place, and it would take a week to two weeks to even begin to implement a plan.

The people of Haiti are literally .... sitting ducks.
HURRICANE TOMAS

We have been on the ground in Haiti since the January 12 earthquake. And, with your continued support, we will be there for this impending disaster. We will focus on feeding survivors and sheltering people with disabilities there.

We are watching the forecasts for Hurricane Tomas in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The NHC gives the storm a chance at making landfall somewhere in Haiti; given that nearly a million and a half people are still living in tents a landfall would be a major catastrophe. Portlight is poised to respond to this situation if it happens and we are ready to commit our resources to provide any assistance that may be necessary.




The following is an open letter from Richard Lumarque, the extraordinary man who headed up our field team in Haiti after the earthquake in January. For those of you who followed our efforts in the aftermath of the earthquake you will remember the amazing job that Richard, his cousin Tabitha and their team did in the early days; they worked miracles and without them we would have accomplished a mere fraction of what we did.




Portlight Featured Wunderground Entry


Richard in Haiti earlier this year doing the Best of Works..






Help us Bring some Joy to those without much this season..




HAITI TOYS FOR CHRISTMAS DREAM



Dear Paul,


I want to start by thanking you for the interest and sincere caring your organization has shown to the underprivileged and poor people of the island of Haiti.


After being devastated by the earthquake of January 12th of this year where countless people lost their lives and forcing countless men, women and children to live in sub-human conditions, the survivors are now faced with an outbreak of cholera that threatens all of them. With the holidays coming, we want, once again, to come up with a way to give these people a ray of hope. We want to remind them that Portlight Strategies and the good-hearted people of America have not forgotten about them; we want them to know that we share their pain and suffering.


If you watch the news as I do, you will see that the big NGOs with millions of dollars in donations are still facing the same difficulties they have since the earthquake: supplies are locked up in warehouses and not being distributed in a timely manner to help the people that need these supplies the most. After doing some research on how we can make a difference for the Holidays, I think we can accomplish the following objective:


The Sean Penn foundation had taken a special interest in a camp located in the city of Petionville that holds about 40,000 of the homeless. He started a school for primary education which provides about 250 primary school students an opportunity for a quality education. The school was being cared for by another NGO but they too stopped providing the necessary funds to sustain the school. University Quisqueya up to now has been sustaining the operation of the school which employs 8 to 10 teachers with a salary of $400.00US for each teacher. The University is also facing difficult times as the entire University’s buildings had been destroyed by the earthquake.


There is also a school on the outskirts of the city of Jacmel called Centre Educatif de Fond Jean-Noel that provides education for about 600 students from Kindergarten through High School; the students’ ages vary from 5 to 18 years old. They even have a computer lab. That school was also supported by the efforts of the University Quisqueya and again, the funding has dried up. Soon, these 800 students will be without any opportunity for organized education unless we do something. These children are in desperate need of our help.


My dream is to be able to raise enough funds to pay for the salary of about 12 to 15 teachers for the next year. $5,000.00US a month for 12 months = $60,000.00US. In addition to the salaries for the staff, they need all kinds of school supplies; backpacks, pens, pencils, notepads and even lunch boxes. My further hope is to raise enough to buy some simple Christmas presents for about 800 students to bring a small ray of hope to these children whose lives have been forever changed by this tragedy.


Also, Haiti has been without electricity for about a month now. They need good quality flashlights, batteries and lanterns to sustain them. The kids are so desperate for a decent education that they are willing to learn with a lamp.


In the face of this devastation, we can make a difference. The key to the future of Haiti will be the children we educate today; these children are the future leaders of Haiti. They can lead these people to progress, democracy and a government without corruption but only if they receive the education that we in America take for granted.


I pray that we can find God’s Grace and Blessing in this endeavor and accomplish this task. We have very little time to accomplish this task but if we give of ourselves, we can do it.


Thank you for all your support, love and caring. God bless Portlight and God Bless the United States of America.

Sincerely,

Richard Lumarque
Quoting nocaneindy:


See post 592. I answered in 593, but since the original poster put up the answer 1 post prior, I removed it.


Thank you. I read it before you removed it and went back to re-read but then I couldn't find it so I thought I was getting senile or it was eaten. LOL
Hurricane warning issued for Haiti, Tomas at 45mph sustained (same as 8pm EDT) with a minimum pressure of 1003mb as of the 11pm NHC update.
45 mph...1003 mb.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Vortex report will be at 1004mb


what i find weird it the eyewall type feature with an almost eye like looking weakening to the west of the Eye wall type thing.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER ANGGREK (01U)
9:00 AM WST November 4 2010
======================================

At 8:00 am WST, Tropical Low, Former Anggrek (1003 hPa) located at 15.3S 95.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.8S 94.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.4S 92.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 20.7S 91.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 30.0S 95.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
The system has weakened significantly overnight and is now below cyclone intensity.

Microwave imagery overnight assisted in locating the centre and showed very little deep convection near the centre.

Dvorak: Difficult to assign DT. MET is 1.5 based on a trend of W+, PAT is 2.0. FT is 2.0 and CI set to 2.5.

ASCAT pass at 1533 UTC showed 30 knot winds in the southern and eastern quadrants. Gales are still possible in southern quadrants as the system continues to weaken and move to the west southwest.
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR HAITI...

No more wishcasting it away. It's real.
LOCATION of COC according to NHC
15.4N 75.2W
NNW movement 6MPH
Winds remain the same



702. 7544
further west ?

HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

Poll time!

Q: How strong will Tomas become at peak?

A. Tropical Storm (40-70 mph)
B. Category 1 Hurricane (75-90 mph)
C. Category 2 Hurricane (95-110 mph)
D. Major Hurricane (115-155+ mph)

I bolded by answer.

(I believe Tomas will peak at 90-100 mph, with 100 mph most likely.)
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

what i find weird it the eyewall type feature with an almost eye like looking weakening to the west of the Eye wall type thing.


?? you lost me
Anyone have a rough estimate of the time remaining for Tomas before conditions become unfavorable for strengthening?
It gave us highs in the Upper 50s yesterday...With winds out of the North at 25-30 mph, with higher gusts.

Can anybody say cold?

THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF TOMAS WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WARM WATERS. IN FACT...ALL OF THE RELIABLE MODELS THAT DO NOT MOVE TOMAS OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF HAITI MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS.

From the 11 pm NHC DiscussionLink
Quoting Distrakted:
Anyone have a rough estimate of the time remaining for Tomas before conditions become unfavorable for strengthening?


First adversity is land interaction.
Quoting Distrakted:
Anyone have a rough estimate of the time remaining for Tomas before conditions become unfavorable for strengthening?


Tomas should be able to strengthen for the next 3 days or so.
711. 7544
was the se bahamas in its path before this warning came out at 11pm tia
Major problem here for Haiti... Slow moving storm (expected to speed up) withs convection aplenty.

5-15 inches of Rain between Hait/DR 1-3 inches in Jamaica
Quoting 7544:
was the se bahamas in its path before this warning came out at 11pm tia


Yes, but there was a Tropical Storm Watch in effect instead of a Hurricane Watch.
Statistical models
The black line still crosses over my house Friday night, but now with an H


Could not be coming in at a worst spot.......geesh. Gonna get the right side or the bad side if this is true also.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 15.4N 75.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 16.1N 75.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 17.4N 75.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.1N 74.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 21.0N 72.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 24.0N 70.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 25.0N 68.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 66.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


718. 7544
few more models shifting left ????
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
The black line still crosses over my house Friday night, but now with an H


to quote aggie, 'rut ro...'
Things looking up for Jamaica but it Tomas stalls it would even more messy
Well I am going to bed now... Another hectic day tomorrow..
The track has sped up significantly and it's still pretty disorganized.
Loop
...what are the navy forecast track straits called?


ah, thanks Dover, .
That track will keep the storm over water of course.
That's the Windward Passage. The strait between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico is the Mona Passage.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time!

Q: How strong will Tomas become at peak?

A. Tropical Storm (40-70 mph)
B. Category 1 Hurricane (75-90 mph)
C. Category 2 Hurricane (95-110 mph)
D. Major Hurricane (115-155+ mph)

I bolded by answer.

(I believe Tomas will peak at 90-100 mph, with 100 mph most likely.)


I'll go with that. Lower half of Cat 2.







Notice the Vorticity to the SW of Tomas and the Vorticity near the Southern Islands near South America.
Isla de Mona, PR


Quoting roleli:
Things looking up for Jamaica but it Tomas stalls it would even more messy
Actually according to the 8 pm by the met service we could be still in for a wash out. 
Quoting Distrakted:
Anyone have a rough estimate of the time remaining for Tomas before conditions become unfavorable for strengthening?
Don't be surprised if it morphs again.
Strange saying this but the outflow from Tomas is pretty impressive... Tomas has been a strange storm. Unless it plays one of its roll over and pay dead dog tricks... Tomas will be a hurricane tomorrow...
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Actually according to the 8 pm by the met service we could be still in for a wash out. 


Rain for sure.... Winds might not be bad as it could be..
Hmmm has rotation... all 4 winds... no Vortex report... and the HH is going home.




Still, some way to go for the trough to catch Tomas completly



Nite All, Going to Bed Hoping for the best for Haiti,
Latest Stats: Tomas
45 MPH
1003 MB
NNW @ 6
739. 7544
tomas might trick us and start moving west again overnight imo looks like hes getting a eye
Quoting sunlinepr:
Isla de Mona, PR

bonita foto
741. JLPR2
Hmm... I was expecting it to look better.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Hmmm has rotation... all 4 winds... no Vortex report... and the HH is going home.






Looks really broad, maybe trying to build a wall, 50-60mph surface on the way out, close to the edge of COC. NOAA seems more strict about a storm showing it's worth for a vortex message or maybe it will just be late.

AF309 just took off for Tomas.



With all the talk about Tomas. There is a pretty strong NorEaster type Low that will be moving up the East Coast coming. Its a pretty strong system.
Quoting luigi18:
bonita foto


Es la unica de nuestras islas que no he visitado....
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

191
fxus64 klix 040259
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
959 PM CDT Wednesday Nov 3 2010


Update...


Sounding discussion...


No problems with the flight evening. A gradual drying trend
continues as precipitable waters drop down to 1.26 inches. Still plenty of
moisture below 700 millibars as well and relatively unstable with
an Li of 3.1. Winds are light and northeasterly below 750 millibars
with a strong southerly flow aloft in place tonight.


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 400 PM CDT Wednesday Nov 3 2010/


Short term...


Some isolated convection has begun to develop in the area the past
hour...as the atmosphere becomes more destabilized due to daytime
heating. This heating is a bit stronger than expected...as skies
have turned partly cloudy across most of the forecast area.
Convection should continue to increase in coverage through the
late afternoon and evening hours...as the cold core of the upper
level low currently over the Upper Texas coast moves through
Louisiana. The cold core will allow for steeper lapse rates and a
bit more instability tonight. As a result...expected the scattered
convection to continue through the overnight hours.


As the low pulls to the east of the region...due to feeling the
influence of a very strong upper level trough digging through the
plains and Midwest into the eastern third of the nation...a strong
cold front associated with this upper level trough will sweep
through the forecast area. The front should completely clear the
area by middle-day tomorrow. In the wake of the front...strong winds
aloft will be transported to the surface due to a combination of
strong subsidence and cold air advection. Models indicate that 850mb
winds of 40+ knots and 700mb winds of 50+ knots on the back of a
strong jet streak diving down the western side of the trough axis
will develop over the area Thursday afternoon and remain in place
through Friday evening. These strong winds aloft will mix down to
the surface with sustained winds of 20 to 25 miles per hour and gusts over 30
miles per hour expected from Thursday afternoon to Friday evening. A Wind
Advisory may be needed for portions of the forecast area in the
future.


The strong cold air advection will allow 1000-500mb thicknesses to
fall a good 100 meters Thursday into Thursday night. Temperatures
will fall well below normal...with overnight lows plunging into
the lower to middle 30s for areas away from the coast and tidal
lakes and low dipping into the lower 40s elsewhere. With strong
winds in place...wind chills will easily drop into the 20s
Thursday and Friday nights. Fortunately...it appears that the
duration of near freezing temperatures over northern zones will be
short-lived enough to prohibit a freeze.


Long term...
Looking at the ASCAT I'm guessing we aren't getting a vortex message on that last pass. SW side looks a little open..
Orleans Parish

Current Severe Weather


Wind Advisory

Statement as of 7:49 PM CDT on November 03, 2010

... Wind Advisory in effect from 7 am to 7 PM CDT Thursday...

A strong cold front will move through the area tonight. As high
pressure builds into the area Thursday... strong winds are
expected to affect portions of southeast Louisiana that are
generally south of a line from Pierre Part to Donaldsonville to
New Orleans. Sustained winds will rise into the 25 to 30 mph range
for much of the day with higher gusts possible.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Motorists... especially those driving high profile vehicles... should
exercise caution while driving in the Wind Advisory area. Be
alert to sudden gusts of wind which may cause you to lose control
of your vehicle. Extra attention should be given to cross winds
when driving on east west oriented roadways. Winds will be most
noticeable on elevated roadways and bridges.

Strong winds can also blow around lightweight or loose outdoor
objects. Take action to secure trash cans and other such objects
in order to prevent damage.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Don't be surprised if it morphs again.
LOL ...too funny. This is a crazy system, to be sure.

It's liable to pull a "catch me if you can" up the Eastern Seaboard, and become a Nor'easter from hell.
CLIMATE...WITH THE ADDITIONAL 1.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT FELL AT
THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (San Juan, PR) AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...A TOTAL OF 75.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS NOW ACCUMULATED AT
THE AIRPORT SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR. THIS REPRESENTS THE SECOND
WETTEST YEAR AT THE AIRPORT...WITH ONLY 2005 ENDING WETTER WITH A
TOTAL OF 77.28 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE COURSE OF THE YEAR.
(RECORDS FOR THE LMM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DATE BACK TO JANUARY 1
1956)
They are expecting much more in the days coming up.
Seems to me we have 3 scenarios to ponder.

1. The trough moves in weaker, and/or slower, which allows Tomas to strengthen and move slower through Haiti/ D.R.
We all know what that could mean...

2. Said trough moves in fast, strong, and rapidly moves Tomas through Haiti/ D.R., reducing strengthening and time spent in vicinity.

3. A slight combination of 1 and 2, which is perhaps what the N.H.C. is beginning to see, as they now believe this will again be a hurricane.

My hopes and deepest, most sincerest wish is that number 2 is right, and all about to be affected get the minimal impact possible.
Caught your response to me the other ?morning?,Skyepony, but got busy enough to not get back for a reply until the conversation got shoved way way way into the past.
Salinity and the freezing point of seawater.
Evening all.

@ TampaSpin.... nice 2 c u in the blog a bit more of late....

On the SE Bahamas / TCI threat.... it's been ongoing, since it's pretty hard for a storm to hit Haiti going north and miss both.... I'm not sure how much attention people are paying locally [haven't listened to much in the way of broadcasts today] but any approach by Tomas is likely to be our worst experience this season. Unfortunately, I can't see any justification for expecting or even hoping that it will take a more westerly track [i.e. left side of cone] and thereby minimize damage and casualties in Haiti.

:o(
TropicalStormTomas's heading turned northward to (9degrees north of) NorthWest
from it's previous heading of (0.8degrees north of) NorthWest
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~3.3mph(~5.4km/h)
TS.Tomas
3Nov. 03amGMT - 13.7n75.1w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#20
3Nov. 06amGMT - 13.2n75.2w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#20A
TD.Tomas
3Nov. 09amGMT - 13.5n75.5w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#21
3Nov. 12pmGMT - 13.7n75.8w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#21A
3Nov. 03pmGMT - 14.1n75.9w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#22
3Nov. 06pmGMT - 14.8n75.0w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#22A
TS.Tomas
3Nov. 09pmGMT - 14.9n74.8w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#23
4Nov. 12amGMT - 15.0n74.9w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#23A
4Nov. 03amGMT - 15.4n75.2w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#24

Copy&paste 13.7n75.1w-13.2n75.2w, 13.2n75.2w-13.5n75.5w, 13.5n75.5w-13.7n75.8w, 13.7n75.8w-14.1n75.9w, 14.1n75.9w-14.8n75.0w, 14.8n75.0w-14.9n74.8w, 14.9n74.8w-15.0n74.9w, 15.0n74.9w-15.4n75.2w, mbj, bqn, 15.4n75.2w-17.9n77.1w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 24^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
18hours from now to MooresPen, Jamaica

^ The northernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
Double posting
Whoops, sorry for triple posting. The blog wouldn't reload past comment752 until the third time around.
BTW, pple in JA, especially the east end... St Thomas / Portland area?.... really need to be prepped 4 this storm... just a zig instead of a zag could mean some serious wx from the W side, though of course not as bad as a direct hit....
Daily check of the model's & such error on Tomas for the last 24hrs..

CMC leads with 52nm error, Ukmet 65nm, gfs 68, gfdl 69, BAMM 71, TVCN 71, OFCL 72, HWRF 79, several more in the 100s.. trailing the field is MM5E with 236.5.

Intensity models could be showing more skill but improving. HWRF 14kt error in the last 24hrs, GFDL 15 & OFCL 17.
Baha~ I agree.. Looking at the model error, best performer..cmc leans a little left brushing Jamaica hard before Haiti.
Skye, seems like track errors w/ Tomas have been huge... prolly some of the worst this season.
762. DDR
Quoting remembercleo:
CLIMATE...WITH THE ADDITIONAL 1.54 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT FELL AT
THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (San Juan, PR) AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...A TOTAL OF 75.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS NOW ACCUMULATED AT
THE AIRPORT SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR. THIS REPRESENTS THE SECOND
WETTEST YEAR AT THE AIRPORT...WITH ONLY 2005 ENDING WETTER WITH A
TOTAL OF 77.28 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE COURSE OF THE YEAR.
(RECORDS FOR THE LMM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DATE BACK TO JANUARY 1
1956)
They are expecting much more in the days coming up.

Thats interesting
I don't know if piarco inter. in Trinidad keeps records but we certainly get alot more rain here.I have recorded 133 inches since May 14th.
Anyway, it's after midnight here and I have to be up and out by 6:30 tomorrow. I think I'll head to bed now, so I have a few minutes to check on Tomas' progress in the morning.

Still feeling really unhappy about that track...
They finally updated all of the Tracks to the latest sorta Vortex from the HH

Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
765. 7544
tomas starting to wrap around the coc now but looks like he wants to drift west
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, pple in JA, especially the east end... St Thomas / Portland area?.... really need to be prepped 4 this storm... just a zig instead of a zag could mean some serious wx from the W side, though of course not as bad as a direct hit....


Some models have shown it going NE Haiti/Jamaica then going SE.... to return back NE into the Atl


Click to enlarge

Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, pple in JA, especially the east end... St Thomas / Portland area?.... really need to be prepped 4 this storm... just a zig instead of a zag could mean some serious wx from the W side, though of course not as bad as a direct hit....
Trust me the government is making sure everyone is prepared.
Quoting 7544:
further west ?

HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS



This was not the forecast.



Aspectre~ Yes the stuff of snowbird lore. I knew all that, don't know what I was thinking, too distracted to double check. Seemed odd to be disagreeing with you & agreeing with VB.

Quoting Seastep:


This was not the forecast.



What exactly does that indicate?
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
DEPRESSION BOB05-2010
5:30 AM IST November 4 2010
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal. Depression BOB05-2010 lays centered 8.0N 92.0E or about about 1150 km east of Batticaloa, 1400 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1450 km southeast of Visakhapatanam.

It would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards towards north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 72 hours.
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, pple in JA, especially the east end... St Thomas / Portland area?.... really need to be prepped 4 this storm... just a zig instead of a zag could mean some serious wx from the W side, though of course not as bad as a direct hit....


Strange you right... The convection not wrapping around the COC and the movement is still NNW and any shift to the west and it could be bulls-eye Jamaica in less than 36hrs
Baha~ I'd say 1/3 or so others this season, around this strength has done about this bad. Definitely one of the worse if not the worse for the OFCL forecast this year.


Depression BOB05/99W in the Bay of Bengal
Quoting DDR:

Thats interesting
I don't know if piarco inter. in Trinidad keeps records but we certainly get alot more rain here.I have recorded 133 inches since May 14th.
That's over 11 feet in less than 6 months? That doesnt sound very normal, but then I dont live there.
Notice it moves West, NE then NW....

Quoting weatherwatcher12:

What exactly does that indicate?


Ridging is much stronger than anticipated.
Still think there's two separate storms under all of that water vapor. Idk if the trough is doing so well right now either.


Quoting Seastep:


Ridging is much stronger than anticipated.
Oh.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Depression BOB05/99W in the Bay of Bengal


What is the max intensity forecasted? Seems anything that has much time over water in that area becomes something bad.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Oh.

yep not good
784. 7544
Quoting Seastep:


Ridging is much stronger than anticipated.
Oh.

would that turn tomas more west hmmmm tia

Quoting sunlinepr:
Notice it moves West, NE then NW....

An area of high pressure must have forced it back.

Quoting 7544:
Quoting Seastep:


Ridging is much stronger than anticipated.
Oh.

would that turn tomas more west hmmmm tia
Yep, ridge is high pressure and high pressure means more westward.
Quoting alfabob:
Still think there's two separate storms under all of that water vapor. Idk if the trough is doing so well right now either.

why do you say so.... look at this Link Might support your view
788. 7544
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Yep, ridge is high pressure and high pressure means more westward.


thanks maybe this could spare hati some hope we gets further west then make the turn ne
Quoting nocaneindy:


What is the max intensity forecasted? Seems anything that has much time over water in that area becomes something bad.


so far the IMD is only showing about 45-50 knots unless the advisory actually states different.
790. JRRP
to me is moving North
Link


storm looks to be becoming a strong cyclone in the NWP chart
Mount Merapi today & last night



Quoting Seastep:


Ridging is much stronger than anticipated.


That high will continue to break down on the West side. EVery 3 hours that graphic will continue to change now. But, yes you could be correct the High might be stronger than anticipated.
Quoting roleli:
why do you say so.... look at this Link Might support your view


NHC has completely messed up on tracking Tomas, (3Nov. 09amGMT - 13.5n, 75.5w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#21) : The center of the other TD is currently ~12.5N, 80W. This was about 20 hours ago and I watched what they were tracking wonder off in this direction.

So Tomas never took the path which they are purposing, they just started to track a TD half way through; and then jumped back to tracking Tomas. I doubt he even dropped to TD status, but we'll never know since HH missed the actual storm during the time.

Look at the outflow, the symmetry; this is two separate entities. NHC needs to go back and correct their errors, this is getting ridiculous.
Think you're correct, latest movement is North

796. JRRP
season over ???
This is the GFDL from roughly 24hrs ago depicting now.

See the "slot" if he shot straight NNE up the E coast of FL?

That opening is not there.

Yes, it should mean further W.

Thankfully, he seems to be struggling big time. I am especially encouraged by the reduction in rain production.

A ridge is the opposite of a trough...... What's effect has a Ridge compared to a trough on an Hurricane??? Someone experienced knows??

Good question for Levi I guess.....,
Quoting sunlinepr:
Mount Merapi today & last night



wow! that'll get ur attention.
Quoting sunlinepr:
A ridge is the opposite of a trough...... What's effect has a Ridge compared to a trough on an Hurricane???

Good question for Levi I guess.....,


Ridging provides good divergence over tropical cyclones, thereby ventilating them and allowing them to intensify.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Ridging provides good divergence over tropical cyclones, thereby ventilating them and allowing them to intensify.


But, what effect do they have in their trajectory when they encounter?
Quoting sunlinepr:
A ridge is the opposite of a trough...... What's effect has a Ridge compared to a trough on an Hurricane??? Someone experienced knows??

Good question for Levi I guess.....,


A ridge (or High Pressure) is a flow of air that allows the system to grow and breath and exhale while following the flow of air with a track guidance. While the trough is like a dip in the road sorta. If you have a flow of water running flowing down a road and the water runs into that dip, the water enters that dip. Same as a trough. It is just a weakness for the Low to flow into. Best way i can desribe. Now i'm sure your really confused and i'm sure some will say the same.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Think you're correct, latest movement is North

Looks like the islands are jogging north in that jumpy graphic.
i think it just depends on the ridge or the trough's characteristics...like depth and strength (surface or upper or both)
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
The only solution is tons of fresh clean water and food, and it's not in place, and it would take a week to two weeks to even begin to implement a plan. The people of Haiti are literally .... sitting ducks.


True - yes they are.
Quoting sunlinepr:


But, what effect do they have in their trajectory when they encounter?
It tends to push them around the ridge. (blocking them from going through the ridge)
Quoting alfabob:


NHC has completely messed up on tracking Tomas, (3Nov. 09amGMT - 13.5n, 75.5w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#21) : The center of the other TD is currently ~12.5N, 80W. This was about 20 hours ago and I watched what they were tracking wonder off in this direction.

So Tomas never took the path which they are purposing, they just started to track a TD half way through; and then jumped back to tracking Tomas. I doubt he even dropped to TD status, but we'll never know since HH missed the actual storm during the time.

Look at the outflow, the symmetry; this is two separate entities. NHC needs to go back and correct their errors, this is getting ridiculous.


I not an expert here but I think you have a strong case. This probably explains why Tomas has not developed. It ran into another system and with nowhere to go the two systems interacted with each other...

Levi32 pointed out this stall scenario and he is possibly right.... he might have the 'system' further west
Quoting sunlinepr:
A ridge is the opposite of a trough...... What's effect has a Ridge compared to a trough on an Hurricane??? Someone experienced knows??

Good question for Levi I guess.....,


I am by no means Levi, but Tomas will not just plow through that.

The trough will progress E and erode that ridge, allowing N movement and "pushing" him to the E at the same time.
Quoting TampaSpin:


A ridge (or High Pressure) is a flow of air that allows the system .....


Well that is a good explanation... Can I conclude, that there is no way that Tomas would go trough that ridge; so if the ridge is moving W to E, it will eventually move Tomas E.... contrary to a trough, which could allow Tomas to keep on going W???
Early Morning all,

My newest blog post on everything Tomas. From its detailed history to a current outlook.
Quoting sunlinepr:


But, what effect do they have in their trajectory when they encounter?


Well since ridges are the opposite of troughs, you can probably picture it a bit from there (ridge = clockwise flow, trough = counter-clockwise).

In Tomas' case, it will soon round the western periphery of the subtropical ridge and move N as a result. It will then round the southwest periphery of the ridge and move NNE to NE.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Well since ridges are the opposite of troughs, you can probably picture it a bit from there (ridge = clockwise flow, trough = counter-clockwise).

In Tomas' case, it will soon round the western periphery of the subtropical ridge and move N as a result. It will then round the southwest periphery of the ridge and move NNE to NE.


Well seems clear, thanks ALL for your explanations.... will search for some additional info
Quoting sunlinepr:


Well that is a good explanation... Can I conclude, that there is no way that Tomas would go trough that ridge; so if the ridge is moving W to E, it will eventually move Tomas E.... contrary to a trough, which could allow Tomas to keep on going W???


That would be true if the Cold front from the Low in the GOM was not moving East toward Tomas. The cold front or "trough" will continue to erode the West side of the Ridge of high pressure. Sometimes tho the Ridge of High pressure is so strong the it make the Trough flow up and over and does not erode. Which ever is the strongest wins out.
BULLETIN No: 21
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Jamaica as Tomas continues to move towards the north-northwest and closer to the island. This means that tropical storm conditions pose a possible threat within 48 hours.

At 10:00 p.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Tomas was located near Latitude 15.4 degrees North, Longitude 75.2 degrees West; about 290 km (180 miles) south-southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica or 470 km (295 miles) southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

Tomas is moving towards the north-northwest near 9 km/h (6 mph) and a turn towards the north and then north-northeast is expected over the next 48 hours. The centre of Tomas is forecast to pass over 100 km (60 miles) east of Jamaica on Thursday night, and approach Haiti on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 km/h (45 mph), with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Tomas is expected to become a hurricane as the centre nears Haiti on Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 110 km (70 miles) from the centre.

Rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Tomas is expected to affect Jamaica starting tonight and increasing during the day tomorrow. Computer models are estimating that the system could produce 75-125 millimetres (3-5 inches) of rainfall over the island on Thursday. There is also a 20% chance of eastern parishes experiencing storm-force winds of over 65 km/h (40 mph) as Tomas passes by on Thursday evening. Above-average wave heights should also be expected over coastal areas of northeastern parishes.

Small craft operators, including fishers from the cays and banks, are reminded to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal.

The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of this system, and all interests should pay special attention to further Releases.

The next Bulletin on Tropical Storm Tomas will be issued at 5:00 a.m. tomorrow.

egt
Quoting TampaSpin:


A ridge (or High Pressure) is a flow of air that allows the system to grow and breath and exhale while following the flow of air with a track guidance. While the trough is like a dip in the road sorta. If you have a flow of water running flowing down a road and the water runs into that dip, the water enters that dip. Same as a trough. It is just a weakness for the Low to flow into. Best way i can desribe. Now i'm sure your really confused and i'm sure some will say the same.


Good answer. I also think of ridges and troughs in two garden varities, upper-level and surface:

(1) Upper-level ridge (ridge is a fancy term for high pressure): Forms due to a warm (relatively speaking) air mass. If a tropical cyclone (depression, storm, or hurricane) builds one above itself or if it slides beneath one, the storm will be able to breath and strengthen.

Upper-level ridges are also called upper-level anticyclones.

(2) Upper-level trough (trough is fancy term for low pressure): Forms due to a cold (relatively speaking) air mass. Tropical cyclones struggle to breath under those, and development beneath them is difficult. If it gets close to a tropical cyclone, it can shear it apart.

(3) Surface ridge. Steers a tropical cyclone in the clockwise flow around itself.

(4) Surface Trough/Cold/Occluded/Warm Front: Steers a tropical cyclone in the counter- clockwise flow around itself.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Good answer. I also think of ridges and troughs in two garden varities......


Very complete, excellent info Thanks...
Quoting sunlinepr:


Very complete, excellent info Thanks...


No problem, hope that clarifies things. These are my favorite kind of questions to answer!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Good answer. I also think of ridges and troughs in two garden varities, upper-level and surface:

(1) Upper-level ridge (ridge is a fancy term for high pressure): Forms due to a warm (relatively speaking) air mass. If a tropical cyclone (depression, storm, or hurricane) builds one above itself or if it slides beneath one, the storm will be able to breath and strengthen.

Upper-level ridges are also called upper-level anticyclones.

(2) Upper-level trough (trough is fancy term for low pressure): Forms due to a cold (relatively speaking) air mass. Tropical cyclones struggle to breath under those, and development beneath them is difficult. If it gets close to a tropical cyclone, it can shear it apart.

(3) Surface ridge. Steers a tropical cyclone in the clockwise flow around itself.

(4) Surface Trough/Cold/Occluded/Warm Front: Steers a tropical cyclone in the counter- clockwise flow around itself.


Well said. One can also conclude that between 2 areas of high pressure areas that a weakness nearly always exist for a tropical system to find a weakness between the 2 if the cyclone is strong enough also. That is a different beast and we see that more often during the summmer months.
I also talk about upper-level, deep-layered, and/or surface features that have influenced Tomas since it was a wave off of Africa till now, on my latest blog post.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Good answer. I also think of ridges and troughs in two garden varities, upper-level and surface:

(1) Upper-level ridge (ridge is a fancy term for high pressure): Forms due to a warm (relatively speaking) air mass. If a tropical cyclone (depression, storm, or hurricane) builds one above itself or if it slides beneath one, the storm will be able to breath and strengthen.

Upper-level ridges are also called anticyclones.

(2) Upper-level trough (trough is fancy term for low pressure): Forms due to a cold (relatively speaking) air mass. Tropical cyclones struggle to breath under those, and development beneath them is difficult. If it gets close to a tropical cyclone, it can shear it apart.

(3) Surface ridge. Steers a tropical cyclone in the clockwise (anticyclonic in the northern hemisphere) flow around itself.

(4) Surface Trough/Cold/Occluded/Warm Front: Steers a tropical cyclone in the clockwise (anit-cyclonic in the northern hemisphere) flow around itself.


I would also add that ridges can occasionally act to produce vertical shear over a tropical cyclone, if the ridge is particularly strong at the low-levels, or if the anticyclone is not fully collocated with the tropical cyclone center.

A good example of the former is Tropical Storm Ana of last year, and Tropical Storm Colin of this year. Both storms struggled to maintain a closed surface circulation in the face of anomalously strong 850-500 mb easterlies along the south side of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.

If the low- to mid-level atmospheric flow associated with the subtropical ridge is too fast, the storms will have immense difficulty is maintaining a closed surface circulation due to lack of sufficient low-level convergence, which promotes thunderstorm activity.

A good example of the latter (displacement of an anticyclone in relation to the tropical cyclone) is, ironically, Tomas himself just a few days ago, when he began to weaken subsequent to passing through the Windward Islands.
Now it's getting serious; Hope the best for Haiti... Gnite All




I would love your guys views on whether we have two systems in the western Caribbean or one?
Quoting alfabob:


The symmetrical structure of Tomas is very impressive, convection should burst at anytime tonight.
Sat presentation is a little disconcerting.

Has that "tighten up and then blow up" look and feel.

Big difference on track between a HU and what he is now, based on the ridge characteristics.

TS:



HU:

Quoting roleli:
I would love your guys views on whether we have two systems in the western Caribbean or one?


If by two, do you mean Tomas AND the blobs to the southwest of Tomas? Well right now, all of the strong blobs are associated with Tomas.

Tomas was once a tightly-organized system until wind shear did it in, and it degenerated into a rather large broad circulation, with the blobs covering a large distance due to this broadness. Surface pressures may still remain low after Tomas exits the the Caribbean, and maybe these blobs away from Tomas's center may become some other disturbance (sort of what happened after very broad Nicole left the Caribbean earlier this season).

But for now, we have just one Caribbean system.
Quoting roleli:
I would love your guys views on whether we have two systems in the western Caribbean or one?


There is only Tomas.

That other area is from upper divergence. There is no lower convergence nor vorticity associated with it.
Quoting roleli:
I would love your guys views on whether we have two systems in the western Caribbean or one?


i agree with previous that disturbance to the SW of Tomas is hindering development. Tomas still looks sheared from the SW as well.. The area near 12.5N/81W is only now separating from Tomas
Quoting reedzone:


The symmetrical structure of Tomas is very impressive, convection should burst at anytime tonight.


Reed, do you think that Tomas is about to tighten up and then go ka-boom? Darn, this would add more insult to injury for Haiti if that happenened.
This is the most current.


This was 9hrs ago.
I was thinking that Tomas won't become a hurricane before passing by Haiti, I think Tomas is on the brink of a strengthening episode. But hurricane strength I think is more likely after Haiti, by the time it gets to the E Bahamas.
poof once again
That "blob" SW of Tomas looks like something a little bit more organized than a blob. Although that's only from the east side of it, but it does have vorticity as seen on infrared or RGB. Just because the NHC doesn't tag something, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. I'm pretty sure a huge mass of water vapor can do what it wants regardless of their permission.

so whats the latest on Tomas?
Quoting tornadodude:
so whats the latest on Tomas?

The NHC may be having server problems!!!
Quoting alfabob:
That "blob" SW of Tomas looks like something a little bit more organized than a blob. Although that's only from the east side of it, but it does have vorticity as seen on infrared or RGB. Just because the NHC doesn't tag something, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. I'm pretty sure a huge mass of water vapor can do what it wants regardless of their permission.



I posted about 2 hours ago that there is vorticity at 850mb in that location you are referring too. Not sure anything will become of it tho.....its too close to Tomas to get going.
Thomas COC still broad. vortex remains tilted and weak and only drifting NNW....ATTM that is.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I posted about 2 hours ago that there is vorticity at 850mb in that location you are referring too. Not sure anything will become of it tho.....its too close to Tomas to get going.

Is anyone else experiencing problems accessing the NHC site??
thats no good
Quoting Bordonaro:

Is anyone else experiencing problems accessing the NHC site??


Honestly i rarely go there.
Quoting tornadodude:
thats no good

They're back up, no new update though!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Is anyone else experiencing problems accessing the NHC site??


I was earlier. Seems to have stabilized for now, however.
"I'm pretty sure a huge mass of water vapor can do what it wants regardless of their permission", like Alphabob says.

e.g.--water water everywhere, but not a drop 2 drink is called reality.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I was earlier. Seems to have stabilized for now, however.

Thanks, this is not a real good time for the NHC servers to crash!!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Thanks, this is not a real good time for the NHC servers to crash!!!

...TOMAS HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 75.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
Quoting TampaSpin:


I posted about 2 hours ago that there is vorticity at 850mb in that location you are referring too. Not sure anything will become of it tho.....its too close to Tomas to get going.


Shear could dissipate it, but I'm pretty sure that this is what NHC was labeling as a TD last night. I didn't pick up on this from looking at a vorticity product though, I've just been watching it move off in that direction. So since the products agree with me, than it is possible that there is more than a single system in the area.

I've been bringing this up because if the trough weakens, Tomas can still head somewhat NE and stall (allowing more room to develop). That will allow this to move under the high pressure which will replace the trough, and push it towards Mexico/CONUS. Just a precaution, don't want anyone to be unprepared in case something like this happens.
This is a very strong trough that's influencing Tomas now, very heavy rain at my house in Pinellas and its thundering with a much larger thunderstorm complex producing tons of lightning to my west over the gulf. Already picked up 0.62, the first rain in 6 weeks...One of if not the biggest dry streak ever here has finally been broken. It has ended with a classic blinding Florida downpour.

Hey TampaSpin, do you finally see trough digging down that you got angry at me for insisting there was no such trough there?
Quoting Jedkins01:
This is a very strong trough that's influencing Tomas now, very heavy rain at my house in Pinellas and its thundering with a much larger thunderstorm complex producing tons of lightning to my west over the gulf. Already picked up 0.62, the first rain in 6 weeks...One of if not the biggest dry streak ever here has finally been broken. It has ended with a classic blinding Florida downpour.

Hey TampaSpin, do you finally see trough digging down that you got angry at me for insisting there was no such trough there?


When did i ever say there was no trough.......wasn't me that i remember
Now i have stated several times that i did not think the trough would completely move Tomas out to sea. NOw, several days back i did say i thought Tomas might make to western Cuba. I was wrong.

000
URNT12 KNHC 040615
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010
A. 04/06:04:40Z
B. 15 deg 34 min N
076 deg 02 min W
C. 850 mb 1410 m
D. 41 kt
E. 074 deg 68 nm
F. 140 deg 36 kt
G. 069 deg 80 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 17 C / 1523 m
J. 19 C / 1522 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 1321A TOMAS OB 05
MAX FL WIND 36 KT E QUAD 05:34:30Z
RADAR DEPICTED 12 NM LONG BAND NE OF CTR
;
roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 06:15Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 6:04:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°34'N 76°02'W (15.5667N 76.0333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 175 miles (282 km) to the SSE (163°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,410m (4,626ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the ENE (74°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 140° at 36kts (From the SE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the ENE (69°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the east quadrant at 5:34:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RADAR DEPICTED 12 NM LONG BAND NE OF CTR
Quoting TampaSpin:


When did i ever say there was no trough.......wasn't me that i remember



lol you kept posting poof and mocking me because I was on the side of forecasters and I also as forecasting a trough. You insisted the models weren't showing a trough, but they were showing the same trough then that is occurring now.

I'm not bringing this up to show who's better. But the reason I follow the NWS and other real forecasters is that I am a student in meteorology, and hope to have it as my profession some day. Even if you're not planning on becoming a meteorologist. You just might not want to think you have better answers then the experts. Yes they aren't perfect but they sure as heck now far more about meteorology then us, and to proudly say otherwise is foolish and blind. I'm not saying you are a fool, but we all can be foolish sometimes, and we all have a lot to learn including myself.
Getting kind of interesting, I wonder if three vortices in a triangular pattern would be stable (might need an anti-cyclone in the center and the correct distance/strength between them). Tomas still has the dominant circulation for now though.

Also found an image of the TD I was talking about, cloud coverage is open on the south; headed west towards current position.

2010-11-03 11:15 UTC
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 06:15Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 6:04:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°34'N 76°02'W (15.5667N 76.0333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 175 miles (282 km) to the SSE (163°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,410m (4,626ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 68 nautical miles (78 statute miles) to the ENE (74°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 140° at 36kts (From the SE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the ENE (69°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the east quadrant at 5:34:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RADAR DEPICTED 12 NM LONG BAND NE OF CTR

Thanks for the report. pretty healthy pressure drop from earlier this evening ..Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg.)
Quoting Jedkins01:



lol you kept posting poof and mocking me because I was on the side of forecasters and I also as forecasting a trough. You insisted the models weren't showing a trough, but they were showing the same trough then that is occurring now.

I'm not bringing this up to show who's better. But the reason I follow the NWS and other real forecasters is that I am a student in meteorology, and hope to have it as my profession some day. Even if you're not planning on becoming a meteorologist. You just might not want to think you have better answers then the experts. Yes they aren't perfect but they sure as heck now far more about meteorology then us, and to proudly say otherwise is foolish and blind. I'm not saying you are a fool, but we all can be foolish sometimes, and we all have a lot to learn including myself.


First off as many said you need a serious lesson on how to talk to people.....but, do you not agree that 95% of forecasting by forecasters are not done by computer models. With that i too use Models to do my analysis. I strictly use Models for the most part. This time of year Models normally as i stated that nite usually over play troughs and under play high pressure as was the case from the last storm if you remember. I truly thought the same would happen and said that was my opinion as to what the models was doing and you was a very rude person with the approaching with someone stating an opinion of there thoughts and analysis. There was nothing wrong with my thinking at all that night as i seen exactly what you was seeing except i gave everyone a "possiblity that something else could occur" and stated it was a possibility. I'm off to bed have a great morning.
Quoting TampaSpin:


First off as many said you need a serious lesson on how to talk to people.....but, do you not agree that 95% of forecasting by forecasters are not done by computer models. With that i too us the Models to do my analysis. This time of year Models normally as i stated that nite usually over play troughs and under play high pressure as was the case from the last storm if you remember. I truly thought the same would happen and said that was my opinion as the what the mddels was doing and you was a very rude person with the approaching with someone stating an opinion of there thoughts and analysis. There was nothing wrong with my thinking at all that night as i seen exactly what you was seeing except i gave everyone a "possiblity that something else could occur" and stated it was a possibility. I'm off to bed have a great morning.


+100....congrats on the rain!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

The NHC may be having server problems!!!
That's not the "latest," that's the norm lately. Who's sucking all the bandwidth out of it, do you suppose?
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
That's not the "latest," that's the norm lately. Who's sucking all the bandwidth out of it, do you suppose?


Horrible joke, but the Haitain's with there ipods.......just kidding of course. I wish they all had something to see what is coming as we do. Its really to bad the way their government forces them to live. SHAME ON THEM
Good nite everyone.......i don't feel good what happens tomorrow to the people in that deprived Country of Humane facitilites and living conditions. No doubt help will be needed again for those that will survive as many won't survive what is approaching. Sickening to think.

Nite everyone!
There is a Internet problem showing in a level 3 line from Detroit to SFO. They oversee a lot of the Miami traffic too.
Along with Jamaica... Mexico, Belize, GrandCayman, and northernCentralAmerica have come into play.

TropicalStormTomas's heading turned westward to (4.9degrees north of) WestNorthWest
from it's previous heading of (9degrees north of) NorthWest
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~15mph(~24.1km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h)
TS.Tomas
3Nov. 06amGMT - 13.2n75.2w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#20A
TD.Tomas
3Nov. 09amGMT - 13.5n75.5w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#21
3Nov. 12pmGMT - 13.7n75.8w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#21A
3Nov. 03pmGMT - 14.1n75.9w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#22
3Nov. 06pmGMT - 14.8n75.0w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#22A
TS.Tomas
3Nov. 09pmGMT - 14.9n74.8w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#23
4Nov. 12amGMT - 15.0n74.9w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#23A
4Nov. 03amGMT - 15.4n75.2w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#24
4Nov. 06amGMT - 15.7n75.8w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1001mb - NHC.Adv.#24A

Copy&paste 13.2n75.2w-13.5n75.5w, 13.5n75.5w-13.7n75.8w, 13.7n75.8w-14.1n75.9w, 14.1n75.9w-14.8n75.0w, 14.8n75.0w-14.9n74.8w, 14.9n74.8w-15.0n74.9w, 15.0n74.9w-15.4n75.2w, 15.4n75.2w-15.7n75.8w, rtb, mbj into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 24hours.

Copy&paste 15.4n75.2w-15.7n75.8w, rtb, mbj, cun, czm, gcm, 15.7n75.8w-20.82n86.9w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 3hours and its straightline^projection.
Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~2days&5hours from now to PuertoMorelos between Cozumel and Cancun,QuintanaRoo,Mexico

^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
DEPRESSION BOB05-2010
8:30 AM IST November 4 2010
==========================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Southeast Bay Of Bengal

Pre-cyclone Watch Is In Effect

At 3:00 AM UTC, Depression BOB05-2010 over southeast Bay of Bengal moved west northwestwards and lays centered near 8.5N 91.0E about about 1050 km east of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 1300 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1350 km southeast of Visakhapatanam.

It would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Chennai and Ongole by Sunday evening.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST November 4 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 12.3N 110.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
The long anticipated intensificiation now seems to have started. You can see on IR imagery that the deep convection has started to wrap around the coc. Pressure dropping too, now 998mb.
867. ackee
looks like model has shif again from Hati little closer to jamaica wonder if place hurricane warning too ?
000
WTNT41 KNHC 040841
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF TOMAS HAS NOT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 997 MB WITH MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS
OF 41 KT. DESPITE THE AIRCRAFT DATA WHICH ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING...THE VORTEX HAS BEEN TILTED IN THE VERTICAL BASED
UPON COMPARISON OF EARLIER NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT DATA.
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE AIRCRAFT...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 330/06. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
REGARDING THE TRACK OF TOMAS IS UNCHANGED. TOMAS SHOULD BE STEERED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY. AFTER THAT...TOMAS
SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD WHILE
ACCELERATING. EVEN THOUGH THE SYNOPTIC REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
TO THE LEFT ON ACCOUNT OF THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES.

ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FACTORS OF MODERATELY LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF TOMAS...THE VERTICAL
TILT OF THE VORTEX AND THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION MAY
ARGUE AGAINST A RAPID INCREASE IN STRENGTH. INTERESTINGLY...THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX THAT HAD BEEN SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A 30-KT INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOT AS
HIGH AS IT WAS BEFORE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND ASSUMES THAT THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
CONDUCIVE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR STENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...STRONG AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO CAUSE WEAKENING...PERHAPS
AT A MORE RAPID PACE THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT LATER FORECAST
TIMES GIVEN THE STRONG FORECAST SHEAR.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES
OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 15.8N 76.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 17.0N 76.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 18.8N 75.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 21.0N 73.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 23.5N 71.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 26.0N 69.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 28.0N 67.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 09/0600Z 28.0N 65.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 AM EDT THU NOV 4 2010

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT. A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SMOKIES...MAINLY AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET.

NCZ048-051-052-042000-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0009.101105T0400Z-101106T1000Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
339 AM EDT THU NOV 4 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT ABOVE 3500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 3500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY EVENING...
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS
ABOVE 3500 FEET.

WHILE PERIODS OF SNOW...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ARE EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEYS BENEATH THE SMOKIES AND IN THE LOWER FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
Thanks Kori!!

Looks like it is going to be quite windy in your part of the world today!!
871. ackee
see jamaica now under TS warning model seem to be pointing to a close call with jamaica East coast
Quoting traumaboyy:
Thanks Kori!!

Looks like it is going to be quite windy in your part of the world today!!


Unfortunately, yes. Wind chill values could dip all the way down into the mid 20s on Friday night.
TropicalStormTomas's heading turned westward to (3.5degrees west of) WestNorthWest
from it's previous heading of (4.9degrees north of) WestNorthWest
TS.Tomas's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions decreased to ~7mph(~11.3km/h) from its previous travel speed of ~15mph(~24.1km/h)
TD.Tomas
3Nov 09amGMT - 13.5n75.5w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#21
3Nov 12pmGMT - 13.7n75.8w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#21A
3Nov 03pmGMT - 14.1n75.9w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#22
3Nov 06pmGMT - 14.8n75.0w - 35mph(~56.3km/h) - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#22A
TS.Tomas
3Nov 09pmGMT - 14.9n74.8w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#23
4Nov 12amGMT - 15.0n74.9w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#23A
4Nov 03amGMT - 15.4n75.2w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1003mb - NHC.Adv.#24
4Nov 06amGMT - 15.7n75.8w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - 1001mb - NHC.Adv.#24A
4Nov 09amGMT - 15.8n76.1w - 50mph(~80.5km/h) - - 997mb - NHC.Adv.#25

Copy&paste 13.5n75.5w-13.7n75.8w, 13.7n75.8w-14.1n75.9w, 14.1n75.9w-14.8n75.0w, 14.8n75.0w-14.9n74.8w, 14.9n74.8w-15.0n74.9w, 15.0n74.9w-15.4n75.2w, 15.4n75.2w-15.7n75.8w, 15.7n75.8w-15.8n76.1w, rtb, mbj into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and the distances traveled over the last 24^hours.
Add 15.8n76.1w-19.22n87.5w to see the straightline projection.
A poster from Haiti posted on the Storm Carib website yesterday and said he would try and post again today. Let's hope he can.
871 ackee "See Jamaica now under TS warning. Model seems to be pointing to a close call with Jamaica east coast"

Tomas would have to make a 70degree northward swing from its current path for the east coast to bear the brunt of its power.
Not saying it can't happen, but I'd be more worried if I lived in the western portion of Jamaica.
Tomas looks to be s-l-o-w-l-y getting there, but he's definitely having a time of it...serving, I suppose, as a reminder why few storms occur so late in the year: things simply turn increasingly hostile with every turn of the calendar page.
got to be some very intense rainfall around that system
878. IKE
morning all.
i see Tomas is doing exactly what i said.
wow!!! rain!!!
Good morning, everyone. I had to search to find the blog this morning. Did they set up a whole new look?

Tomas is a hurricane now or will be? He is still headed for Haiti? I don't have tv the last few day and won't until late tomorrow.
Thanks.
883. IKE
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 09:59Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 9:41:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°43'N 76°05'W (15.7167N 76.0833W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 164 miles (264 km) to the SSE (163°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,397m (4,583ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 26kts (~ 29.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 49° at 25kts (From the NE at ~ 28.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 63 nautical miles (72 statute miles) to the NW (316°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,622m (5,322ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the north quadrant at 9:02:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 39kts (~ 44.9mph) in the southeast quadrant at 9:53:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
CORRECTED FOR OUTBOUND WIND
Good Morning from SWFL -- Got some rain at last w/more coming - I hope... and this beach bunny has WAVES
Surf Report - AuraSurf-M.Weaver
A very strong cold front for the first week of November will pass late Thursday bringing a solid round of surf to the desperately starving surfers of WFL. Finally, waves. Surf will come up on Thursday in the afternoon possibly stormy, waist high and choppy. Friday best c-front spots could see chest to head high choppy surf in the afternoon with 25knt NW winds. Overnight Friday night the wind will lighten slightly and clock NNE giving WFL it's first day after swell in years. Look for waist to chest high clean swell at the best c-front spots down south on Saturday am. Wind call for Saturday am is NNE at 15. There will be a low tide Saturday around 7am, so slow incoming after that. This is what you've waited for WFL, you more than deserve it. I hope you can all blow off whatever you have going on and takes these two and a half days to surf your brains out. There's nothing behind it, yet. So surf it up
Good morning...

I sure love the way Tomas is currently looking. Should definitely help minimize any widespread damage across the islands.
Quoting surfmom:
Good Morning from SWFL -- Got some rain at last w/more coming - I hope... and this beach bunny has WAVES
Surf Report - AuraSurf-M.Weaver
A very strong cold front for the first week of November will pass late Thursday bringing a solid round of surf to the desperately starving surfers of WFL. Finally, waves. Surf will come up on Thursday in the afternoon possibly stormy, waist high and choppy. Friday best c-front spots could see chest to head high choppy surf in the afternoon with 25knt NW winds. Overnight Friday night the wind will lighten slightly and clock NNE giving WFL it's first day after swell in years. Look for waist to chest high clean swell at the best c-front spots down south on Saturday am. Wind call for Saturday am is NNE at 15. There will be a low tide Saturday around 7am, so slow incoming after that. This is what you've waited for WFL, you more than deserve it. I hope you can all blow off whatever you have going on and takes these two and a half days to surf your brains out. There's nothing behind it, yet. So surf it up


Morning, Surfmom! Sounds like you are going to have a wonderful weekend!!
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i see Tomas is doing exactly what i said.


OK, I finished guessing, what did you say?
Morning all.

Hmmmm.... I notice a lot of pple talking about the apparent surface low in the extreme SW CAR.... don't forget there is a kind of semi-permanent low pressure area that hangs out over/north of Columbia.... earlier this week OPC had a surface low analysed in that general vicinity. Once Tomas began to fall apart, I suppose it's possible this area could have had some influence on movement / speed of reorganization. I don't know if I'd call it a separate "system", though there is a trough analysed on the most recent surface chart....



Morning Baha,
Not happy with the forecast track, my only optimistic hope is that strength stays low.
Through the occasional pixelization that pops up on my black screen of a tv, I see Tomas is still a TS. What is his path? Is he still looking like a good hit for Haiti?
Have to leave early this morning, have to have daughter to the school gym by 6:30 for the five hour trip to New Orleans for volleyball, so watched a tropical update on TWC online. My thoughts and prayers to the people of Haiti.

Have a great Thursday, everyone.
Good morning, looks like Jamaica is under the gun first.
Goodmorning, looks like RI is less likely with Tomas now. This is good news. Hard to believe we are already going to have a freeze watch here in lower Al. Fri night/Sat morning. high 20's lower 30's. I though it was going to be a warmer fall/winter this season for us?
894. IKE
16.0N and 75.8W...1001.2 mb
(~ 29.57 inHg)
Wednesday, November 4, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA

BULLETIN No: 22


The Meteorological Service has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a TROPICAL STORM WARNING for Jamaica as Tomas continues to move towards the north-northwest and closer to the island. This means that tropical storm conditions, including possible sustained wind speeds of 34-63 knots or 63-117 km/h, are expected in 36 hours or less.

At 4:00 a.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Tomas was located near Latitude 15.8 degrees North, Longitude 76.1 degrees West; about 120 km (75 miles) south-southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica or 510 km (315 miles) southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

Tomas is moving towards the north-northwest near 11 km/h (7 mph) and a turn towards the north and then northeast, with an increase in forward speed, is expected over the next 24 hours. On the current track, the centre of Tomas is, therefore, forecast to pass nearly 60 km (35 miles) east of Jamaica late tonight, and in the vicinity of western Haiti/eastern Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 km/h (50 mph), with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24-36 hours. Tropical storm force winds now extend outward up to 185 km (115 miles) from the centre and are expected to impact sections of Jamaica’s eastern parishes later today.

Rainfall accumulations of near 75 millimetres (3 inches) are possible over the island, increasing the likelihood of flash flooding in flood-prone areas today. The chance of eastern parishes experiencing storm-force winds has increased to about 60% during the passage of Tomas. Above-average wave heights should also be expected over coastal areas of northeastern parishes.

Small craft operators, including fishers from the cays and banks, are reminded to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal.

The Meteorological Service continues to monitor the progress of this system, and all interests should pay special attention to further Releases.

The next Bulletin on Tropical Storm Tomas will be issued at 8:00 a.m. today.

egt
896. IKE
15.8N and 76.1W...997.4 mb
(~ 29.45 inHg)


Highest winds...

40.5 knots (~ 46.6 mph)
Tropical Storm
Rain starting to move in per the Jamaican Doppler radar
Miss Piggy approaching Tomas.
899. IKE
2.05 inches of rain here in the Florida panhandle...at my location...in the past 24 hours.

First significant rain in over 2 months.

Now the cold and wind is moving in.
900. IKE
Next update on Tomas should have winds about the same. Same on pressure.........



weatherwatcher12 can you post the link to radar
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
weatherwatcher12 can you post the link to radar

Sure, Link
903. IKE
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 11:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 20
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 11:08:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°50'N 76°02'W (15.8333N 76.0333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 158 miles (254 km) to the SSE (161°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,402m (4,600ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NE (48°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 117° at 41kts (From the ESE at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:56:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RADAR PRESENTATION IMPROVING WITH MULTIPLE BANDING ON EASTERN SIDE
is he moving?
that thing about 200 miles east of Nicaragua?...that ain't tomas...it has spin plenty....is that another hurricane forming?
I think that Tomas may follow the CLP5 to some extent I think it may pass on the West coast
907. IKE
...HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOWS TOMAS CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH...
8:00 AM EDT Thu Nov 4
Location: 15.9N 76.0W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb

...........................................

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR HAITI OR EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

this is something well look at this according to this Tomas should pass Jamaica on the West coast


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlm/atlantic/dlm1.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlm/atlantic/dlm2.GIF
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlm/atlantic/dlm3.GIF
Quoting tornadodude:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 AM EDT THU NOV 4 2010

...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT. A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HEAVY
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SMOKIES...MAINLY AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET.

NCZ048-051-052-042000-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0009.101105T0400Z-101106T1000Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
339 AM EDT THU NOV 4 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT ABOVE 3500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 3500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES AND SURROUNDING AREAS. COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK...AND BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING...SOME HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY EVENING...
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN AREAS
ABOVE 3500 FEET.

WHILE PERIODS OF SNOW...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX ARE EXPECTED IN THE
VALLEYS BENEATH THE SMOKIES AND IN THE LOWER FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
We should get some here on the plateau too....
910. IKE
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
424 AM CDT THU NOV 4 2010

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND USHER THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
THIRTIES TO UPPER TWENTIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS
SUCH AS NORTH OF A LINE FROM NEW AUGUSTA MISSISSIPPI TO ANDALUSIA
ALABAMA...WITH A PATCHY LIGHT FREEZE EXTENDING SOUTH OF THIS LINE
INTO STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES MISSISSIPPI...INTERIOR MOBILE AND
BALDWIN COUNTIES ALABAMA...AND THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AGRICULTURAL AND GARDENING INTERESTS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY
ACTIONS TO PROTECT PLANTS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THESE CONDITIONS.

Quoting TampaSpin:


Horrible joke, but the Haitain's with there ipods.......just kidding of course. I wish they all had something to see what is coming as we do. Its really to bad the way their government forces them to live. SHAME ON THEM
No, it's called colonial imperialism, followed by the only African American rebellion against a colony .... EVER, which was later punished by every white empire, including the U.S.

People forget not just the people of Haiti, but the history of how they became so poor.

The good news is, this system appears to be smaller in circumference than I feared it might become, earlier. I think they'll be spared, for the most part.(fingers crossed)
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, looks like RI is less likely with Tomas now. This is good news. Hard to believe we are already going to have a freeze watch here in lower Al. Fri night/Sat morning. high 20's lower 30's. I though it was going to be a warmer fall/winter this season for us?

Less likely, yes, but he seems to be once again trying to get his act together this morning. Recon recently found an uncontaminated 994.9 mb reading, and satellite shows a couple of healthy feeder bands developing, especially to the south. He hasn't moved much overnight at all--just a few dozen miles at best. For those reasons, I expect an increase from 45 knots at 11 (unless he goes through yet another of his by-now-familiar fade-aways).
ODA,
The other aspect is simple overpopulation. Haiti is following the Easter Island theme. As is the rest of the world, writ large.

Haiti COULD support the population better with improved resource management, but when you have a populace that cannot help but burn every combustible stick on the island it cannot possible turn out well.

Population management is the only real long-term solution...and nature's way of handling that is never pleasant.
Quoting Zaphod:
ODA,
The other aspect is simple overpopulation. Haiti is following the Easter Island theme. As is the rest of the world, writ large.

Haiti COULD support the population better with improved resource management, but when you have a populace that cannot help but burn every combustible stick on the island it cannot possible turn out well.

Population management is the only real long-term solution...and nature's way of handling that is never pleasant.
+ 100
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think that Tomas may follow the CLP5 to some extent I think it may pass on the West coast


West coast of where?
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Morning, Surfmom! Sounds like you are going to have a wonderful weekend!!
LOL - Ohhh yes -- MaNature has provided -- Rain & WAVES... and hubby-boss is giving time off. Volunteering at a SurfEvent for autistic kids this Saturday -- I'll be in the water ALL DAY -- I pray this front won't be toooo nippy --
will probably be the first wetsuit day here in SWFL
Quoting kimoskee:


West coast of where?


you answered thanks
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Morning Baha,
Not happy with the forecast track, my only optimistic hope is that strength stays low.
Got the prayers going UP (((CRS)))
.71 so far today in Wekiva Springs and that came in 30 minutes with a total of 2.85" so far this week and we could get another 1 to 2 inches by midnight. Also watch for some severe wx as this powerful Upper Level disturbance moves in this afternoon.
Quoting kimoskee:


you answered thanks
He is talking about Jamaica but Tomas seems to be moving pretty much NNW so I don't think he is going to pass on the west coast. Should be on the east to central Jamaica.
anyway guys I am going to go and get ready for work so bbl
Quoting Jeff9641:
.71 so far today in Wekiva Springs and that came in 30 minutes with a total of 2.85" so far this week and we could get another 1 to 2 inches by midnight. Also watch for some severe wx as this powerful Upper Level disturbance moves in this afternoon.
no severe weather predicted for the entire state of florida.
Thanks. It's getting a little confusing.

Quoting Jedkins01:



lol you kept posting poof and mocking me because I was on the side of forecasters and I also as forecasting a trough. You insisted the models weren't showing a trough, but they were showing the same trough then that is occurring now.

I'm not bringing this up to show who's better. But the reason I follow the NWS and other real forecasters is that I am a student in meteorology, and hope to have it as my profession some day. Even if you're not planning on becoming a meteorologist. You just might not want to think you have better answers then the experts. Yes they aren't perfect but they sure as heck now far more about meteorology then us, and to proudly say otherwise is foolish and blind. I'm not saying you are a fool, but we all can be foolish sometimes, and we all have a lot to learn including myself.


Best of luck to you in your goals on becoming a meteorologist. Your comments bring to mind some past discussions on this board. Without naming anyone in particular, there was heavy discussion this year on the use of models in hurricane forecasting. Some popular folks on the site made numerous comments on models and on how they "rarely" use them when arriving at their forecasts. I thought this quote from hurricane expert Dr. Miles Lawrence, a retired 40 year veteran meteorologist with the TPC had to say in an interview. Quote ""It's no longer about individuals coming up with a vision; it's about respecting numerical weather prediction and doing the best you can with it,". He goes on to say that the single most important tool in tropical forecasting are the models.
Quoting kimoskee:
Thanks. It's getting a little confusing.

Are you getting any rain yet ?
Tomas looking impressive this morning, looks as if Haiti will be on the bad side, Very sad!!
Quoting divdog:
no severe weather predicted for the entire state of florida.


Their actually is a slight risk today according all the Orlando mets this morning from 1pm to 6pm. I know you like starting trouble but this is correct.
Population management is the only real long-term solution..

Color me stupid....I don't like the sound of that.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Population management is the only real long-term solution..

Color me stupid....I don't like the sound of that.


+10
931. ackee
I wondering when will Tomas start moving NE if its contiue could move over the jamaica would not be suprise base on constant change in Tomas track
Quoting ackee:
I wondering when will Tomas start moving NE if its contiue could move over the jamaica would not be suprise base on constant change in Tomas track

According to the met service it's expected to pass about 30 miles east.
933. beell
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT THU NOV 04 2010

...FL...
PLUME OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASCENT IS SPREADING THROUGH
THE ERN GULF AND WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES
DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND RAIN. LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WITHIN CYCLOGENESIS ZONE LEAVING MUCH WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
ACCOMPANYING THE WEAKENING SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40
KT BULK SHEAR WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND BOWING
SEGMENTS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WEAKLY
CAPPED WARM SECTOR...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS
. THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK
FLOW THROUGH 800 MB SHOULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT
.
Vortex Plots have Tomas starting the turn to the NNE




Quoting Orcasystems:
Vortex Plots have Tomas starting the turn to the NNE





Miss Piggy has a new vortex plot roughly in the same place as the last Air Force one.
i said it an hour ago..but nobody commented...is that thing next to nicaragua another hurricane forming?...i was looking at the local ir here in la ceiba...sure looks like it...
Morning All

Recon making another pass at the center
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Miss Piggy has a new vortex plot roughly in the same place as the last Air Force one.


That actually shows Miss Piggys, its the one furthest North
Quoting Orcasystems:


That actually shows Miss Piggys, its the one furthest North

Oh interesting didn't know you could do that in GE.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Vortex Plots have Tomas starting the turn to the NNE






That would be bad for the show if it persists.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Oh, interesting.


Changed the picture.. now it only shows Miss Piggys track & Vortex, and for the previous HH, it only shows the Vortex plots
Quoting Orcasystems:


Changed the picture.. now it only shows Miss Piggys track & Vortex, and for the previous HH, it only shows the Vortex plots


Thanks for the updates. Speaking for us in the Turks & Caicos, the sooner a turn to NE the less effect we will have here, however that is worse for Haiti and DR.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Vortex Plots have Tomas starting the turn to the NNE






I wonder if tomas' convection is trying to wrap it's vortex center or is its vortex is becoming more vertically stacked? That would be bad.
less than. 10 inches of rain in coastal srq area over last 24hrs,im begining to think the 1-3inches promised since yesterday will noy happen,less than. 25 additional precip.imo,its going to be a long hard fire wx season here in fl.....oh yea looks like a new invest east of nicaragua,probably our next TC imo
Quoting jiminceiba:
i said it an hour ago..but nobody commented...is that thing next to nicaragua another hurricane forming?...i was looking at the local ir here in la ceiba...sure looks like it...
CrownWeather said models are predicting development in the Caribbean again by Tuesday. That area looks to have a decent spin to it so I wouldn't doubt that this might be the beginning stages of something trying to form.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I wonder if tomas' convection is trying to wrap it's vortex center or its vortex is becoming more vertically stacked. That would be bad.


Thomas is currently in the process of correcting the stacking issue. Center was almost exposed earlier this morning, now, not the case. Thomas is on an organizing trend and should be from here on out.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
CrownWeather said models are predicting development in the Caribbean again by Tuesday. That area looks to have a decent spin to it so I wouldn't doubt that this might be the beginning stages of something trying to form.


thanks stormwatcher
Quoting jiminceiba:


thanks stormwatcher
No problem. I am in Grand Cayman so this area would worry me as much as you. I think we need to keep a close eye on it.
950. Jax82
A wet East Coast today.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
CrownWeather said models are predicting development in the Caribbean again by Tuesday. That area looks to have a decent spin to it so I wouldn't doubt that this might be the beginning stages of something trying to form.


Proto-Virgine? Dang....
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Thomas is currently in the process of correcting the stacking issue. Center was almost exposed earlier this morning, now, not the case. Thomas is on an organizing trend and should be from here on out.


So is this a temp jog because of this or is beginning to feel flow push him more to the NNE?
I think the cold front didn't dig quite as deep as expected, looks to have slowed some and broken off over western Cuba, JMO. I still see Tomas moving NW for abit!
Tomas getting ready to leapfrog Paula and Alex in ACE...

Alex - 6.78
Paula - 6.59
Tomas - 6.21

After Alex is Julia at 14.2... not likely to pass Julia...
next Vortex report will be interesting.. HH just did a 360 in the centre
Quoting Orcasystems:
next Vortex report will be interesting.. HH just did a 360 in the centre

Saw that too, looked interesting. Next vortex point looks like it will be just west of north.
good morning, glad to hear our ships are headed toward Haiti to assist with storm survival. still it will be a very difficult task to reach people and contain waterborne disease.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0900Z 15.8N 76.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 17.0N 76.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 18.8N 75.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 21.0N 73.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 23.5N 71.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 26.0N 69.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 28.0N 67.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 09/0600Z 28.0N 65.0W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH




Hispanola is in a no win situation right now...Movement towards the Island to the east and a larger swatch of heavy rain over the entire Island......Any movement towards the passage or Cuba, and western Haiti would get the full brunt of the NE quadrant if the storm is able to reach hurricane status.
AGUA!!!!





Finally get to give the sprinklers a rest!
agree WMWB, dire straits is the word that comes to mind. Guess Lambda Fund long-term solutions are best because in these short-case situations we are very much at a disadvantage.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


So is this a temp jog because of this or is beginning to feel flow push him more to the NNE?


Could be temporary as storms tend to wobble more when they are getting stronger. One would almost think that Thomas is moving NW but, that is just the convection expanding westward over the center.
Quoting FLdewey:
AGUA!!!!





Finally get to give the sprinklers a rest!


I wish it were going to be more for the SE.

SPC AC 041248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT THU NOV 04 2010

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS FL TODAY AS THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL MASS INFLUX
IS FOCUSED FARTHER NE OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CYCLOGENESIS. THIS WILL LEAVE AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR. CAPE WILL
ALSO BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...AND A WEAKENING CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH THE
REMNANT MIDLEVEL TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/N FL.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS...OTHER THAN MARGINALLY GUSTS.

Hi Dewey, yes...rain in ECFL at last!
Regardless of track, Tomas is going to bring flooding rain and mudslides and if it intensifies (it's in 30 degree water), then wind too.


WVLoop

CB the latest NHC track is to the left and through the Windward Passage.
The southern "claw" of Haiti may not look like much on a map, but there are some serious (5,000') storm-shredding mountains there, and I was hoping they would provide some level of protection to the Haitians. But it looks lke Tomas is going to thread the needle through the Windward Passage and give them a nasty dirty-side raking. We may be in store for a pointed reminder that it's water, not wind, that delivers a storm's lethal punch.
Quoting CBJeff:
The southern "claw" of Haiti may not look like much on a map, but there are some serious (5,000') storm-shredding mountains there, and I was hoping they would provide some level of protection to the Haitians. But it looks lke Tomas is going to thread the needle through the Windward Passage and give them a nasty dirty-side raking. We may be in store for a pointed reminder that it's water, not wind, that delivers a storm's lethal punch.



Was looking at that yesterday. Seems water will pile up in the Bay pretty good. Not sure if they have a surge model for Haiti?
965. CBJeff 9:28 AM EDT on November 04, 2010

Arguably, any "break-up" of the circulation due to interaction with mountains in Haiti would only serve to slow down the system and cause more rainfall, and, lethal mudslides down those same mountains.
The old mad is on the way. Possible upper 40's in south dade and snow at my home in the NC mountains.
Quoting SouthDadeNative:
The old mad is on the way. Possible upper 40's in south dade and snow at my home in the NC mountains.


Hmm snow for Florida again would be nice :)

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 76.0W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR HAITI OR EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY..MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




Some record lows possible for portions of south Fla. Sunday morning.
Now the question is do I dump the hurricane gas reserve for my generator into the car or wait another 24 days? That reminds me I'd better cut some wood for the fireplace. The upper 40's can be cold in South Dade.
Hurricane Hunters making a 180 back to where they did a 360 around the COC.
Link

Look at this radar link out of Jamaica and watch the COC become better defined,moving NW towards Kingston IMO.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

Look at this radar link out of Jamaica and watch the COC become better defined,moving NW towards Kingston IMO.
Look at this. Talk about a nasty storm...NCEP...Link
Hopefully Tomas moves furher a little further left, right now I think that Port au Prince where all the camps are, will be OK.
979. MahFL
Quoting nola70119:
Hopefully Tomas moves furher a little further left, right now I think that Port au Prince where all the camps are, will be OK.


I don't think they can ever be described as OK, to be honest.....
Quoting hydrus:
Look at this. Talk about a nasty storm...NCEP...Link

I tried it but message says it cannot open the webpage
Wind shift seems to confirm a NNW motion.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Their actually is a slight risk today according all the Orlando mets this morning from 1pm to 6pm. I know you like starting trouble but this is correct.
no severe weather forecast in Florida today. That does not include "tv" mets.
Two days ago, I mentioned that a best case scenario would be for the storm to pass between Jamaica and Haiti and then curve to pass between Haiti and the eastern tip of Cuba.
The T & C Islands will be affected but otherwise thats eems to be the course.

The NHC predicted in it'd first discussion on Friday last that the storm would arrive at 16N and 76 W in 120 hours. Whilst a few hours late that is where it is now but thank goodness considerably weaker.
Time: 13:01:00Z
Coordinates: 16.0N 76.05W
Acft. Static Air Press: 694.6 mb (~ 20.51 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,143 meters (~ 10,312 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 994.8 mb (~ 29.38 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 47° at 16 knots (From the NE at ~ 18.4 mph)
Air Temp: 14.5°C (~ 58.1°F)
Dew Pt: 3.5°C (~ 38.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data

I suspect this might be the center
Quoting MahFL:


I don't think they can ever be described as OK, to be honest.....


Totally agree. Haitians are far away from being OK.
997mb (29.44 inHg) Sea Level (Surface)
Quoting stormpetrol:

I tried it but message says it cannot open the webpage
Try this one more time. If not, go to the opening page of Dr.M,s blog and look at the NCEP on the model list. Its worth a look for sure..Link
Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 14:05Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number: 21
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 12

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 14Z on the 4th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 16.1N 76.1W
Location: 139 miles (223 km) to the SSE (161°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Marsden Square: 044 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
997mb (29.44 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 26.0°C (78.8°F) 85° (from the E) 43 knots (49 mph)
1000mb -23m (-75 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 664m (2,178 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 22.6°C (72.7°F) 125° (from the SE) 49 knots (56 mph)
850mb 1,401m (4,596 ft) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 20.1°C (68.2°F) 140° (from the SE) 34 knots (39 mph)
700mb 3,063m (10,049 ft) 13.4°C (56.1°F) 13.4°C (56.1°F) 110° (from the ESE) 25 knots (29 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 13:49Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Additional Data
- Temperature data is doubtful between the following levels: 700mb - 710mb

Remarks Section...

Release Location: 16.09N 76.08W
Release Time: 13:49:38Z

Splash Location: 16.12N 76.12W
Splash Time: 13:54:41Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 105° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 51 knots (59 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 35 knots (40 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 997mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 160 gpm - 10 gpm (525 geo. feet - 33 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 85° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 54 knots (62 mph)

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
997mb (Surface) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 26.0°C (78.8°F)
989mb 25.4°C (77.7°F) 25.1°C (77.2°F)
919mb 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.3°C (72.1°F)
710mb 13.6°C (56.5°F) 12.1°C (53.8°F)
696mb 13.2°C (55.8°F) 12.2°C (54.0°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
997mb (Surface) 85° (from the E) 43 knots (49 mph)
995mb 85° (from the E) 50 knots (58 mph)
985mb 85° (from the E) 58 knots (67 mph)
976mb 105° (from the ESE) 58 knots (67 mph)
943mb 125° (from the SE) 53 knots (61 mph)
814mb 155° (from the SSE) 29 knots (33 mph)
807mb 145° (from the SE) 24 knots (28 mph)
700mb 110° (from the ESE) 26 knots (30 mph)
697mb 125° (from the SE) 13 knots (15 mph)
696mb 110° (from the ESE) 23 knots (26 mph)
The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.
Quoting nola70119:
Hopefully Tomas moves furher a little further left, right now I think that Port au Prince where all the camps are, will be OK.


Haiti wasn't "OK" before the earthquake. A clean-side pass from Jeanne (at that point a TD) in 2004 killed thousands.
LOCATION...15.9N 76.0W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR HAITI OR EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY..MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Miss Piggy is now leaving Tomas
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Miss Piggy is now leaving Tomas

Tomas just needs to take Ms Piggy and go somewhere, anywhere but Haiti!!!