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A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. hydrus
Quoting Abacosurf:

Your welcome. Never did find any of those lawn chairs....LOL
They are off the coast of Britain..( all the junk gets blown towards the Gulf Stream and the stream terminates in that general area) They find all kinds of weird stuff there all the time. One dude found a huge speed boat( largely intact)!
Seems like the 00z may want to push 94 south and west early on.
i didn't state it clearly. only twice have hurricanes hit the mainland east coast of florida, AFTER october 1, as the first landfalling hurricane of the season, in the united states. this excludes the keys. and the map shows quite a few "first" landfalls on west coast.
2005. hydrus
Quoting sunlinepr:
BERMUDA at link

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Bouncer-Beach/weather_map

* Forecasts
o Detail. 48h forecast
o 6 day forecast
* Surf & Wind Alerts
o Set up alerts
* Observations
o Wave Buoys
o Live Weather
* Swell maps
o Dynamic Map
o Static Maps
* Gallery
o Videos
o Photos


That image looks like a sea turtle...Man, I know i be gettin tired now..

Quoting StormHype:
New chaser video out of Bermuda....
Link

Thanks for finding that!  There were a couple more of his short vids at the end too.  Hope their main roads and bridges fair well tonight.
Quoting taco2me61:

Yes there is a storm over there.... Not so sure how long it will last but sure could use some over here in the Mobile area....

Taco :o)


Down with mobile.......send it east to around Marianna STAT!!....(jk)...been a month....my horse pasture has sand dunes in it!!
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
according to "Florida Weather" third edition, since 1890 there have only been TWO hurricanes to hit the east coast of florida as the first landfalling hurricane of the season. Therefore, according to history, if there is not a landfall in 10 days in the US, the chances of a hurricane landfall on the east coast of florida are LESS THAN 1 in 50. good news for us residents, bad news for Joe Bastardi and WU bloggers wanting to see it happen for reasons better known to them.


Maybe so....but climatology and the usual wind patterns tend to have a way of busting trends.

Also...maybe the east coast of Florida may not be threatened..but certainly the WEST coast (Key West to Ft. Myers to Tampa Bay to the Panhandle) is highly vulnerable, especially from any storm coming up from Cuba or the Florida Straits (Cleo, Charley) or even the NW Caribbean being pushed NE or ENE by the power trofs (Wilma).

Not to mention, that storms smacking FL from the S or SW can cross the penisula into the Atlantic and still rake the east coast pretty bad.

Stats and trends are fine and all...but trends are made to be broken. Ask anyone who survived the 2005 Season From Hell.


Anthony

{Note: Clarification duly noted and appreciated.]


Quoting Katelynn:

Don't know if this was posted this afternoon, but there were already pics of some surge flooding on BDA




Article is here:  BerNews - Surge causes Severe Flooding at Boaz

I'm sure some parishes are having a longggg night of it...

I will scan my old pics and post them of taking water over the bow on the USS Siapan in the north atlantic in August of 1986...Charley
2011. hydrus
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
i didn't state it clearly. only twice have hurricanes hit the mainland east coast of florida, AFTER october 1, as the first landfalling hurricane of the season, in the united states. this excludes the keys. and the map shows quite a few "first" landfalls on west coast.
You made a good observation..However, statistics are only numbers which have no control over actual events...In other words, I would not at all be surprised if the east coast of Florida was slammed by a major hurricane this October...Especially the way things are shaping up..Just my harmless opinion..:)
Quoting traumaboyy:


Down with mobile.......send it east to around Marianna STAT!!....(jk)...been a month....my horse pasture has sand dunes in it!!
Hey I understand that. But now the Ant Hills look like mountains with out trees...... Its so dry here even the flour I use to cook with is wetter than the "Desert" in my back yard....

Taco :o)
2013. Relix
Come on stop the StormW flaming, its childish and immature. He has more experience than most here so don't jump on top of him for that.
Be R muda

Quoting hydrus:
You made a good observation..However, statistics are only numbers which have no control over actual events...In other words, I would not at all be surprised if the east coast of Florida was slammed by a major hurricane this October...Especially the way things are shaping up..Just my harmless opinion..:)
I was thinking the same thing. This seems like a likely year to buck the odds when it comes to weather trends.
2016. NRAamy
What's up with the Unibomber?!

Bring back the Darth Vader potato head!
Quoting taco2me61:
Hey I understand that. But now the Ant Hills look like mountains with out trees...... Its so dry here even the flour I use to cook with is wetter than the "Desert" in my back yard....

Taco :o)


lol.....we need rain ....not necessarily tropical in nature!!
2018. xcool
2019. hydrus
Quoting sunlinepr:
Be R muda

HEY? Where,s the mile thingy? It looks bigger then Britain on that pic..
Igor is having a wide impact, even back to the islands, the British Virgin Islands, received copious amount of rains today that resulted in significant flooding! As the broad circulation draws moisture out of the SE Caribbean Sea. LinkTake a look at the link here!
132hr...Moves 94 W until it completely loses it. Also has another "system" making landfall in Belize...

Quoting hydrus:
You made a good observation..However, statistics are only numbers which have no control over actual events...


Seems like just about every storm this year has been the strongest, or biggest, or most for the date, or location, or whatever... The statistics have taken a beating this year.
Quoting NRAamy:
What is a threaty? Is it a girly threat?
Quoting NRAamy:
What is a threaty? Is it a girly threat?
Nice obs. LOL Crap, sorry for the double quote.
Quoting traumaboyy:


lol.....we need rain ....not necessarily tropical in nature!!
I was going to say "Becarful What You wish for" but you beat me to it LOL

Just from what the models are thinking we might get more rain than we all want....

Taco :o)
2025. hydrus
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Seems like just about every storm this year has been the strongest, or biggest, or most for the date, or location, or whatever... The statistics have taken a beating this year.
lol ..That might continue a bit longer..It almost seems to be the norm these days..The World in a dynamic place..Almost anything is possible on da water planet.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I will scan my old pics and post them of taking water over the bow on the USS Siapan in the north atlantic in August of 1986...Charley


love to see that....Siapan Amphib??
2027. xcool
174hrs two lows in sw cab...
Anyone in here that can explain what the numbers on the 850mb GFS forecast mean?
Seems kinda tranquil in here tonight.... Any more info on the ghost storm of the Caribbean?
Quoting NRAamy:
What's up with the Unibomber?!

Bring back the Darth Vader potato head!
i am sticking with Pac west stereotypes...but I am tired of the unabomber..here is a real pic of me an a fish...from 20 years ago!

Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I will scan my old pics and post them of taking water over the bow on the USS Siapan in the north atlantic in August of 1986...Charley


Wow - you had to have been in what, 50' seas to take water over that ship?  Yikes


I'd like to see a pic of this BDA house tomorrow:


Northen Puerto Rico surf beaches were full today, Winds offshore, Thanks to IGOR

Quoting StormJunkie:
Anyone in here that can explain what the numbers on the 850mb GFS forecast mean?
Schoolie, why must we pass a test now? lol
2034. hydrus
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Seems kinda tranquil in here tonight.... Any more info on the ghost storm of the Caribbean?
Yes..It is scheduled to haunt us in about a weeks time.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Schoolie, why must we pass a test now? lol


That could only be a test if I knew the answer...
Quoting hydrus:
Yes..It is scheduled to haunt us in about a weeks time.


DOOOOOOMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
i am sticking with Pac west stereotypes...but I am tired of the unabomber..here is a real pic of me an a fish...from 20 years ago!


Would you like to talk to someone about your avatar insecurities???
Quoting StormJunkie:


That could only be a test if I knew the answer...lol
I believe you have mail.
2039. hydrus
Quoting StormJunkie:
Anyone in here that can explain what the numbers on the 850mb GFS forecast mean?
It is measuring vorticity S.J.
2040. xcool







2041. NRAamy
PAC West? Works for me!!! Bring on the Oregon Ducks mascot!!!!

:)
I mentioned 12n 50w this morning it now looks to be at 12n 55w. All the ingredients are there when it gets closer to 60w I don't think Igor will will have as great influence. This is the ghost storm IMO. Might make next weekend a little more interesting then most think. Vorticity is increasing along with water vapor.
Quoting traumaboyy:


Would you like to talk to someone about your avatar insecurities???
Nice
I think we'll be okay secretly I think that our wonderful administration in DC spent some of that $14 TRILLION on a hurricane shield for the USA LOL
2045. hydrus
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


DOOOOOOMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!
Maybe, Maybe not.
Testing. One. Is this thing on?
2047. JLPR2
94L refiring a little.
2048. xcool


lol
Quoting weatherwart:
Testing. One. Is this thing on?


Syntax Error....Reboot!!
Hey PrivateI I was going to ask you if you said Wahoo at that time but the caption makes that kind of redundant.
What was I thinking, I had to modify that comment to Trillion LOL
Quoting hydrus:
It is measuring vorticity S.J.




Sort of what I figured, was more wondering what the scale or relation was. And also if the 156hr frame is just the GFS freaking out...What, with all those 2's scattered across the ATl.

2053. pottery
Quoting weatherwart:
Testing. One. Is this thing on?

You have to count to three.
Did'nt you know that LOL?
Quoting traumaboyy:


Syntax Error....Reboot!!
Yes, some integral parts of my comments have not appeared as well. Not happy though.
2055. hydrus
Quoting StormJunkie:




Sort of what I figured, was more wondering what the scale or relation was. And also if the 156hr frame is just the GFS freaking out...What, with all those 2's scattered across the ATl.

Those numbers are so tiny, I cannot see them to try and sum them up!
Quoting NRAamy:
PAC West? Works for me!!! Bring on the Oregon Ducks mascot!!!!

:)


Who??
Dang! What is up with this blog. It's eating my posts.
2058. xcool


lmao hit sc head back in gom .



Quoting traumaboyy:


Would you like to talk to someone about your avatar insecurities???
do you want to hear about my avitar insecurities!!??
2060. NRAamy
Who??!! The Oregon Ducks!! Their football team beat USC last year!!!!!!
Quoting pottery:

You have to count to three.
Did'nt you know that LOL?
The number shall be 3. The sacred number for the holy hand grenade.
2062. pottery
Rumblings in the sky to my east.
Time for bed....

have fun, and stay safe.
(is that a contradiction?)
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Yes, some integral parts of my comments have not appeared as well. Not happy though.


lol...I thought that was just happening to me. IE here at work computers so I am used to it not working right.....and am completely suprised every time it does post properly...lol
Ok, yes, think we all know how worthless track forecasts are 300hrs out...But this just has to be a joke...The 00z wants to take said storm up the E coast of Fla to the Carolinas, back south, then across Ga to reemerge in the Gulf and run around the coast there for a few days...That scenario would sure help everyone that wants to here no more mention of Sai...
2065. Seawall
Jeez, after looking everything over, I think I'll stay here for information. It's the best. I just love DestJeff and Dewey.. you guys have a sense of humor that is incredible.
Keep everything up you guys, you're the best!
2066. NRAamy
Night night, Pott!!!
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
do you want to hear about my avitar insecurities!!??


lol......how does that make you feel??
2068. pottery
Quoting CosmicEvents:
The number shall be 3. The sacred number for the holy hand grenade.

You are sure?
The number between 2 & 4???
heheheheh

tomorrow....
Quoting xcool:


lol
....not the first time we've seen that track from the gfs,i wouldn't laugh,matter of fact i wouldn't discount that track one bit!!!
Quoting CosmicEvents:
The number shall be 3. The sacred number for the holy hand grenade.


Do you throw ON 3, or is it 1,2,3, throw? I never could figure that one out.
Quoting traumaboyy:


love to see that....Siapan Amphib??
Yeah one of the last amphibs with a real well deck. It gets blown up in"Red Storm Rising" if you are a Tom Clancy fan.
2072. wjdow
Quoting Relix:
Come on stop the StormW flaming, its childish and immature. He has more experience than most here so don't jump on top of him for that.


experience or not, to everyone's detriment, he did lose his composure on this blog

Quoting Bishopkembo:
Igor is having a wide impact, even back to the islands, the British Virgin Islands, received copious amount of rains today that resulted in significant flooding! As the broad circulation draws moisture out of the SE Caribbean Sea. LinkTake a look at the link here!

Hey Bishop - looks like ya'll had a ton of rain there and a lot of clean up tomorrow!

I'm having a hard time figuring out where the marina waters end on this pic, lol


Quoting pottery:
Rumblings in the sky to my east.
Time for bed....

have fun, and stay safe.
(is that a contradiction?)
I think it's a moral imperative.
High level clouds Africa

2077. hydrus
Quoting weatherwart:
Dang! What is up with this blog. It's eating my posts.
Igor and Earl ate up all the damn Wheaties..All that is left is posts..
2078. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:


lmao hit sc head back in gom .not make
sense,jmo




Seems the GFS sees a decrease in the amount of trofs and therefore builds a ridge over the US that sends the storm back west, weird...
So this fall will be short on fronts? xD
Pottery I'd feel better if you just said don't do anything i wouldn't do. Well goodnight as well all.
Quoting NRAamy:
Who??!! The Oregon Ducks!! Their football team beat USC last year!!!!!!


Just joking maam....my poor attempt at southern football humor!!

2081. xcool
JLPR2 .i wait for cmc to seeing if jump on .
Quoting pottery:
Rumblings in the sky to my east.
Time for bed....

have fun, and stay safe.
(is that a contradiction?)


Minor contradiction.
Have fun and be good. Now THAT is a contradiction. ;-)
Quoting hydrus:
Igor and Earl ate up all the damn Wheaties..All that is left is posts..
MMMM... posts.... Wanted: straight man to set up jokes...
Let's try this again (maybe it'll post this time).

How late does this crowd hang? I am transitioning back to night shift and I will be on for a while. This is by far the best group / time on the blog
Ok all I'm out for the night.... 4:30am comes early and I need as much beauty sleep as I can get. But we all know it will not help.... blahahahahahaha....

Good Night All


Taco :o)
Quoting CosmicEvents:
"First shalt thou take out the Holy Pin, then shalt thou count to three, no more, no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out. Once the number three, being the third number, be reached, then lobbest thou thy Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch towards thy foe, who being naughty in My sight, shall snuff it." Amen.
.
.
I just saw a cloud.....heading WEST!!!!


ROFL!!!
2087. xcool


getting readyy for more more storms.....
2088. hydrus
Quoting taco2me61:
Ok all I'm out for the night.... 4:30am comes early and I need as much beauty sleep as I can get. But we all know it will not help.... blahahahahahaha....

Good Night All


Taco :o)
G,night Taco. ......Now i,m hungry...dam
gfs seems to become more inaccurate as the time nears to the ghost storm
2090. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 .i wait for cmc to seeing if jump on .


wise idea :D
But considering the system hasn't formed yet, this track should be completely different on the next run. XD
Also it has another Caribbean storm at the end of the run, Run for the Hills! LOL
Quoting wjdow:


experience or not, to everyone's detriment, he did lose his composure on this blog


He's not the only one that has done this on this blog. There have been many. People are just out to discriminate and down StormW anyway they can. And really it's makes them look just as bad. You know they talk down about him and they just can't stop, it really shows there motive.
I really hope everyone in Bermuda is safe tonight. Prayers goes out to everyone there.
sheri
2092. xcool
noghost storm lol.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
"First shalt thou take out the Holy Pin, then shalt thou count to three, no more, no less. Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three. Four shalt thou not count, neither count thou two, excepting that thou then proceed to three. Five is right out. Once the number three, being the third number, be reached, then lobbest thou thy Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch towards thy foe, who being naughty in My sight, shall snuff it." Amen.
.
.
I just saw a cloud.....heading WEST!!!!


Ah. Right-O.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Let's try this again (maybe it'll post this time.

How late does this crowd hang? I am transitioning back to night shift and I will be on for a while. This is by far the best group / time on the blog


We vary considerably PC...Something going on and someone is around all night...Nothing going on, it just depends on how good the comedy show is
2096. NRAamy
Don't be joking with my Ducks!!!!

;)

2097. hydrus
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
MMMM... posts.... Wanted: straight man to set up jokes...
The ones on this blog! Mr..Smarty-pants..
2098. xcool
JLPR2 i just used models for Entertainment always wait for development...
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Yeah one of the last amphibs with a real well deck. It gets blown up in"Red Storm Rising" if you are a Tom Clancy fan.


Rereading that book now...part of my throne room reading selection......that why I asked about it being Amphib.....you jarhead or navy puke??
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I just saw a cloud.....heading WEST!!!!


That wasn't a cloud. It was two swallows carrying a coconut.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Let's try this again (maybe it'll post this time).

How late does this crowd hang? I am transitioning back to night shift and I will be on for a while. This is by far the best group / time on the blog
As long as we can keep each other interested. Like nature, it's unpredictable. But engaging, none the less. There are many who post with great knowledge. Dr. Maue for example, does not fear the dark.
2102. hydrus
Quoting traumaboyy:


Rereading that book now...part of my throne room reading selection......that why I asked about it being Amphib.....you jarhead or navy puke??
Navy Puke...Damn thats funny...
Quoting StormJunkie:
Anyone in here that can explain what the numbers on the 850mb GFS forecast mean?


Broad low south of the yucatan in 156hrs.. The larger # are heights in m, smaller is vorticity & winds at 850mb in kts are the standard flags..

Quoting PanhandleChuck:
I think we'll be okay secretly I think that our wonderful administration in DC spent some of that $14 BILLION on a hurricane shield for the USA LOL


I'd bet they bought from Disney..

Had to come back & try & find a recent TRMM of Fanapi.. Ran across a fairly fresh TRMM of IGOR.
Anyone knows where's the Off switch???

2105. wjdow
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


He's not the only one that has done this on this blog. There have been many. People are just out to discriminate and down StormW anyway they can. And really it's makes them look just as bad. You know they talk down about him and they just can't stop, it really shows there motive.
I really hope everyone in Bermuda is safe tonight. Prayers goes out to everyone there.
sheri


yes, prayers to everyone in Bermuda.
Quoting traumaboyy:


Rereading that book now...part of my throne room reading selection......that why I asked about it being Amphib.....you jarhead or navy puke??
I prefer "Devil Dog" and I was not a squid. :^) (I still have a flat-top LOL!)
Sheri, I'm going to go through this once for you, because quite honestly my fingers are tired of it at this point. Others have done it and others have paid the price for it too (self imploded on the blog). Example: Randrewl. On top of that, NO other featured blogger has done it. This is the second time SW has had an issue, and quite honestly...The first time was MUCH worse than this. Dr M is a very very nice guy who decided to give him a second chance. This community gave him a second chance. His monomania (see rule three here) caused him to self destruct and act like a complete fool on the Dr's blog. No one ran him off, he did it to himself.

Question...How many other featured bloggers post in this forum other than "Portlight" occasionally? Answer...None except for Master on a rare occasion. SW would have been better off staying in his own blog, but his monomania would not allow that.
Quoting Skyepony:


Broad low south of the yucatan in 156hrs.. The larger # are heights in M, smaller is vorticity & kts are the standard flags..



I'd bet they bought from Disney..

Had to come back & try & find a recent TRMM of Fanapi.. Ran across a fairly fresh TRMM of IGOR.


Thanks skye, but on the 156hr image...Why all the 2's scattered everywhere?
HurricaneIgor's heading had turned northward to (3.8degrees north of) NorthNorthEast
from its previous heading of (0.6degrees east of) NorthNorthEast
H.Igor's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~12mph(~19.3km/h)

19Sep 03amGMT - - 28.2n64.7w - - 100mph - - 945mb - - #44
19Sep 06amGMT - - 28.3n65.1w - - - 90mph - - 949mb - - #44A
19Sep 09amGMT - - 28.9n65.3w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45
19Sep 12pmGMT - - 29.6n65.3w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - NHC.Adv.#45A

19Sep 03pmGMT - - 30.4n65.4w - - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #46
19Sep 03pmGMT - - 30.8n65.7w - - - 85mph - - 952mb - - #46A
19Sep 09pmGMT - - 31.5n65.9w - - - 80mph - - 951mb - - #47
20Sep 12amGMT - - 31.9n65.7w - - - 75mph - - 953mb - - #47A
20Sep 03amGMT - - 32.4n65.5w - - - 75mph - - 955mb - - #48

Copy&paste 28.2n64.7w, 28.3n65.1w, 28.9n65.3w, 29.6n65.3w, 30.4n65.4w-30.8n65.7w, 30.8n65.7w-31.5n65.9w, 31.5n65.9w-31.9n65.7w, 31.9n65.7w-32.4n65.5w, meo, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours
Quoting NRAamy:
Don't be joking with my Ducks!!!!

;)



Yes Maam...I have to be careful picking on teams anyways being an Alum of FSU with our recently glorious record...lol
2111. hydrus
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
All I have to say is.....

All I have to say is, take in the raw and mighty power of Julia.....lol
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
As long as we can keep each other interested. Like nature, it's unpredictable. But engaging, none the less. There are many who post with great knowledge. Dr. Maue for example, does not fear the dark.

Some of us just get hungry and wander off to make a ham sandwich.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
As long as we can keep each other interested. Like nature, it's unpredictable. But engaging, none the less. There are many who post with great knowledge. Dr. Maue for example, does not fear the dark.


Are you in P-cola?
Quoting hydrus:
The ones on this blog! Mr..Smarty-pants..
I believe you fit the bill perfectly. The TF setup was smooth. Just like KS.
2115. wjdow
Quoting NRAamy:
Don't be joking with my Ducks!!!!

;)



didn't the ducks win back to back ncaa baseball championships a few years back? so what if they don't have the best football team this year.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Are you in P-cola?
No, sorry. Port St. Lucie. Treasure coast.
Quoting weatherwart:

Some of us just get hungry and wander off to make a ham sandwich.
Did someone say ham!!??
I'm going to sleep in 1-2-4, no 3, no.......
Night all.
2119. hydrus
Quoting sunlinepr:
Anyone knows where's the Off switch???

Yes..Its in the Indian Ocean. There,s a huge pit bull guarding the off switch for the next two weeks, or until the shear machine can start waxing these puppies.
2120. hydrus
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'm going to sleep in 1-2-4, no 3, no.......
Night all.
G,night.
Quoting hydrus:
All I have to say is, take in the raw and mighty power of Julia.....lol
Impressive...I think it might be raining down there somewhere...?
mon·o·ma·ni·a (mn-mn-, -mny) n.
1. Pathological obsession with one idea or subject.
2. Intent concentration on or exaggerated enthusiasm for a single subject or idea.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Sheri, I'm going to go through this once for you, because quite honestly my fingers are tired of it at this point. Others have done it and others have paid the price for it too (self imploded on the blog). Example: Randrewl. On top of that, NO other featured blogger has done it. This is the second time SW has had an issue, and quite honestly...The first time was MUCH worse than this. Dr M is a very very nice guy who decided to give him a second chance. This community gave him a second chance. His monomania (see rule three here) caused him to self destruct and act like a complete fool on the Dr's blog. No one ran him off, he did it to himself.

Question...How many other featured bloggers post in this forum other than "Portlight" occasionally? Answer...None except for Master on a rare occasion. SW would have been better off staying in his own blog, but his monomania would not allow that.
Gosh darn it SJ, am I ever going to get use Igormaniacal, in a meaningful way?
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
As long as we can keep each other interested. Like nature, it's unpredictable. But engaging, none the less. There are many who post with great knowledge. Dr. Maue for example, does not fear the dark.
"Yawn,,!!!"...did you say something...(snore)
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
No, sorry. Port St. Lucie. Treasure coast.


Nice area!
00z GFS is out. Now that's one crazy run!
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I prefer "Devil Dog" and I was not a squid. :^) (I still have a flat-top LOL!)


Yes Sir...proud men and their tall flat tops.....lol....
Quoting StormJunkie:
Sheri, I'm going to go through this once for you, because quite honestly my fingers are tired of it at this point. Others have done it and others have paid the price for it too (self imploded on the blog). Example: Randrewl. On top of that, NO other featured blogger has done it. This is the second time SW has had an issue, and quite honestly...The first time was MUCH worse than this. Dr M is a very very nice guy who decided to give him a second chance. This community gave him a second chance. His monomania (see rule three here) caused him to self destruct and act like a complete fool on the Dr's blog. No one ran him off, he did it to himself.

Question...How many other featured bloggers post in this forum other than "Portlight" occasionally? Answer...None except for Master on a rare occasion. SW would have been better off staying in his own blog, but his monomania would not allow that.


SJ~ Hey and I see what your talking about and understand. Me and you have been friends for a while. I just get aggravated when some folks have to bring it up all the time. I mean it's done and over with. Let dead dogs lye. That's all I am saying. I hope this makes since.
but thanks SJ,
sheri
2130. NRAamy
I love the Oregon Ducks for one reason only: that Youtube of their mascot beating up the Cougar Mascot....instant classic!!!!!!!

2132. hydrus
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Impressive...I think it might be raining down there somewhere...?
Even though Igor is in a weaken state, I believe he snagged most of her rain. If there are any reaching the surface, probably not much longer
The 2's are little areas of low vorticity, they go with all the little black circles.
Quoting traumaboyy:


Yes Sir...proud men and their tall flat tops.....lol....
So my powerful insightful and deductive reasoning has deduced that you are an EMT?
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
00z GFS is out. Now that's one crazy run!


No kidding right! As worthless as track is at those time frames, you can't help but bust out and laugh at it...
Quoting PanhandleChuck:




ROLL TIDE!


YES SIR...We Love our tide too!!

Can not love Bobby and not love the Bear!!
Quoting traumaboyy:


YES SIR...We Love our tide too!!

Can not love Bobby and not love the Bear!!


I am an official Gator Hater
2138. wjdow
Quoting NRAamy:
I love the Oregon Ducks for one reason only: that Youtube of their mascot beating up the Cougar Mascot....instant classic!!!!!!!



i liked it especially when he kicked the cones, seemed so natural and satisfying
Quoting PanhandleChuck:




ROLL TIDE!


Two weeks...Just make sure you know the name LATTIMORE...(I sound all COCKY...but really not very confident about that at all)
Quoting NRAamy:
I love the Oregon Ducks for one reason only: that Youtube of their mascot beating up the Cougar Mascot....instant classic!!!!!!!

Drawn to violence...hhmmm (note to self, get restraining order in morning)
2141. hydrus
Quoting Skyepony:
The 2's are little areas of low vorticity, they go with all the little black circles.
How do you know all this stuff Skye? You are either a met or some kind of science major..!..:)
See that green circle east of Yucatan??

Quoting Skyepony:
The 2's are little areas of low vorticity, they go with all the little black circles.


Ok, but is it just a feed back problem on that one frame or something?

And thank-you :)
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
So my powerful insightful and deductive reasoning has deduced that you are an EMT?


lol....between that and naming the book in my bathroom you are making me nervous...lol

EMT-P, FF,RN
2145. ackee
I see GFS develops storms in SW carrbean on 00z run having it moving NE seem unlikely to me what take all of this condtion will become right for storm formation in the SW Carrb the CMC NOGAPS ECMWF all devlop something track anyone guess at the moment
Quoting StormJunkie:


Two weeks...Just make sure you know the name LATTIMORE...(I sound all COCKY...but really not very confident about that at all)


Nice pun with COCKY --- 10-9-10 Lattimore lying on the floor LOL
2147. xcool


Quoting traumaboyy:


lol....between that and naming the book in my bathroom you are making me nervous...lol

EMT-P, FF,RN
Thanks for what you do...EMT's saved my bacon more than once...(I love bacon)
2149. NRAamy
YES!!!! Kicking the comes was the best part!!!!!!

:)
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Nice pun with COCKY --- 10-9-10 Lattimore lying on the floor LOL


Yeah, I wouldn't worry too much...We have a propensity for self-imploding in pressure cooker situations...

Ok, I think I've used that word a little too much lately.
2151. hydrus
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I am an official Gator Hater
Since football is here..
Caribbean low.... Consistent

Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Nice area!
Thanks for that. Issues for sure, but a decent place to live. If you bought right.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Ok, but is it just a feed back problem on that one frame or something?

And thank-you :)


I would assume feedback.. though it might be interesting to check that the gfs doesn't have the MJO peaking across there at that time.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
"Yawn,,!!!"...did you say something...(snore)
We have a place for that kind of response. WU mail me if you dare.
If you'll notice, I kept my comment with the Roll Tide picture weather related (just happened to be a Big A in the middle of the ocean)

Red sky at night sailors delight

Red sky in the morning sailor take warning
2160. wjdow
good night all (:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Thanks for what you do...EMT's saved my bacon more than once...(I love bacon)


don't give me too much credit....I do it for the money...lol

Well Computer keyboard, I'm going to bed, I got blisters on my fingers....

My wife went to UF and is from Deerfield beach. But my Dad coached football at FSU. Hate it when Uf and FSU play...have to go to the sports bar to cheer for FSU!
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
If you'll notice, I kept my comment with the Roll Tide picture weather related (just happened to be a Big A in the middle of the ocean)

Red sky at night sailors delight

Red sky in the morning sailor take warning


You did good!

Cant figure out FSU this year....I am sure it will not be too great!

Mares tales and mackeral scales make tall ships trim their sails!!
Quoting traumaboyy:


don't give me too much credit....I do it for the money...lol

Go on. Thanks from here too. Haven't had to make use of their services yet, but I'm sure glad the emt's are there.
2167. NRAamy
Good night everyone!

You too, spuds!

;)

Quoting traumaboyy:


You did good!

Cant figure out FSU this year....I am sure it will not be too great!

Mares tales and mackeral scales make tall ships trim their sails!!


They're young and will probably finish with 7 or eight wins. Will be a force to reckon with in a couple more years.

When was the last time a hurricane made landfall South of Tallahassee?
Quoting traumaboyy:


don't give me too much credit....I do it for the money...lol

Now THAT IS FUNNY! Don't get me started on what is wrong with a society that pays teachers, police, first responders, firemen a pitance yet athletes and actors are paid millions. (sigh)
Quoting NRAamy:
Good night everyone!

You too, spuds!

;)



Night Amy
Quoting Skyepony:


I would assume feedback.. though it might be interesting to check that the gfs doesn't have the MJO peaking across there at that time.


I have always left MJO up to the experts like Drak, Levi, etc...Guess at some point I should really learn how to read those forecasts.
2173. xcool


I think actors and athletes should get paid more...


SARCASM FLAG - ON
Quoting StormJunkie:
I think actors and athletes should get paid more...


SARCASM FLAG - ON
Ah, perspective.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


They're young and will probably finish with 7 or eight wins. Will be a force to reckon with in a couple more years.

When was the last time a hurricane made landfall South of Tallahassee?


Trying to answer but anytime I hear Tallahassee and Hurricane in th

flips my breaker...there it went again

Kate in 84-85 closest landfalling non NCAA hurricane
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Now THAT IS FUNNY! Don't get me started on what is wrong with a society that pays teachers, police, first responders, firemen a pitance yet athletes and actors are paid millions. (sigh)
Word up, I think. No matter, your post is just.
2179. JLPR2
Check 94L out XD

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Go on. Thanks from here too. Haven't had to make use of their services yet, but I'm sure glad the emt's are there.


I work only as Nurse Now (much much more money/hours) but the Medic Training is awesome and in Florida if they can't get your battery jumped off....no one can!!
Quoting traumaboyy:


I work only as Nurse Now (much much more money/hours) but the Medic Training is awesome and in Florida if they can't get your battery jumped off....no one can!!
HS, would it be wrong to be LMAO?
2182. xcool


bull cmc
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Word up, I think. No matter, your post is just.
No doubt that was a phat post....wow! we are really lame. I think it's bed time in i.d. ho
Don't you people ever sleep?
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
HS, would it be wrong to be LMAO?


LOL
Quoting traumaboyy:


Night Devil Dog


jarhead!
I really am leaving now! lol!
Oh, yay. An anniversary storm.










On another note, is the "Rich Text" something I dare press or is it more trouble than it's worth?
Quoting xcool:


bull cmc


How your night going??
2191. xcool
traumaboyy good .offwork on mondayy yayy
Quoting xcool:
traumaboyy good .offwork on mondayy yayy


Rock on Brother.....you off weekends??
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
When PSLFLCaneVet posts I tend to nod-off now that you mention it.


LMAO...soporific, is he? I'll reserve comment

This old man is heading for the rack...g'night kids and try to play nice!
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I am an official Gator Hater




I'm a gator hater too.... but not nearly as much as i hate Auburn... I an LSU fan, Geaux tigers.. and if our offense picks up any at all, bama better watch it cuz Arkansas is not their only worry in the SEC west!!!!!!
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Now THAT IS FUNNY! Don't get me started on what is wrong with a society that pays teachers, police, first responders, firemen a pitance yet athletes and actors are paid millions. (sigh)




“Already long ago, from when we sold our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions — everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses.” Roman Poet Juvenal – 77 AD
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
When PSLFLCaneVet posts I tend to nod-off now that you mention it.
If you must, then back at ya. Sleep well. Glad I could be of service
2197. xcool
traumaboyy sometime..
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
If you must, then back at ya. Sleep well. Glad I could be of service


lol....I just love old people!!
2199. JLPR2
Well I'm off to bed, night all!
Quoting Floodman:


LMAO...soporific, is he? I'll reserve comment

This old man is heading for the rack...g'night kids and try to play nice!
Thank you, Flood. Best wishes for your night. It's all good.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oh, yay. An anniversary storm.










On another note, is the "Rich Text" something I dare press or is it more trouble than it's worth?


Have not ventured down the road of the "Rich Text"...

As for that solution...You know damn well you are in the protected zone and so that will never play out!

Morning Jerry, good to see ya.
I hope all have a good night. Thanks for the laughs. "See" you on the 'morrow.
Quoting xcool:
traumaboyy sometime..
Don't answer. May be casing the joint.

jk
2204. xcool
lol
Quoting xcool:
traumaboyy sometime..


looking at last two weekends in October for trip to NOLA....have not nailed date yet.
2206. xcool
traumaboyy how about move nola.lol /
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Don't answer. May be casing the joint.

jk


Elroy tell me anything I need to know!!
Quoting xcool:
traumaboyy how about move nola.lol /


Dude....Daughter 16....two more years....back to Travel Nurse......my destinations....1. NOLA 2. Islamorada 3. NOLA 4. Islamorada.........
2209. xcool
traumaboyy ;) lol
Quoting traumaboyy:


Elroy tell me anything I need to know!!
Elway in AA and AAA now. He very sick. He got that monomania thing that they say Storm has too.
2211. xcool
wow 55c on September 27 here in slidell
2213. xcool
brb
131f ???????????
You're a trip Kerry!

Ok, you folks kept me up too late and now all you trolls are running me off the blog!

Good night all (that are left)
Quoting StormJunkie:
You're a trip Kerry!

Ok, you folks kept me up too late and now all you trolls are running me off the blog!

Good night all (that are left)


Night Sir!!

trolls=vampires on the night shift....fyi!!
Quoting traumaboyy:


Night Sir!!

trolls=vampires on the night shift....fyi!!
double XD
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Don't repeat this, but I asked Storm why that night was probably his last here. He kept repeating that, that fateful night. Seems like yesterday! He said "Waiting to hear from Admin." Then he posted his last image. A Dvorak of Igor and was back on the pumping kick.

But most of the time I enjoyed and learned a lot from his posts. Maybe Lefty will return and fill his shoes. :)


I know storm and his family....met them in the spring. seems like good folks. will miss him here also.
2220. xcool
:0
2221. xcool


here we go
2222. xcool
Quoting xcool:


You killing me man!!

Send it to Mexico!!

That is a joke...for any overly sensitive lurkers!!
heyyy
2225. xcool
lol that why never putting much faith models
2226. xcool
TAKER MODELS KICK OUTT DOOR.
2227. xcool



Quoting btwntx08:
heyyy


you are not an overly sensitive lurker!!
2229. xcool
should be interesting week ahead
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TROPICAL STORM FANAPI (T1011)
15:00 PM JST September 20 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland South China

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Fanapi (990 hPa) located at 23.6N 116.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 24.3N 111.5E - Tropical Depression
Quoting xcool:
should be interesting week ahead


i know.....maybe we can get by with just a tropical storm and keep the wind out of the question....I know north florida is very dry..wishcasting.....guess we get what we get!
2232. xcool
any from tx to fl look out jmo
Quoting traumaboyy:


You killing me man!!

Send it to Mexico!!

That is a joke...for any overly sensitive lurkers!!
Now that Euro is picking up that system, will it keep it on Alex, Karl track or send it on crazy tracks like GFS has? Anyway, feel sorry for the Mexicans if Euro is right and I definitely don't want it anywhere near here, even if we do need rain.
2234. xcool
models have noo clue where going ...
the only thing we need to look out is flooding here quick inch and bam more flooding problems...still some streets are flooded here and im talking about some are deep
2236. xcool
;)
Goodnight all. My melatonin is starting to kick in.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Goodnight all. My melatonin is starting to kick in.


night Kerry!
2239. xcool


Quoting xcool:




while back you said it was going to be 55c in Slidell??
2241. xcool
yeah
Quoting xcool:
yeah


thats 131f!!
2243. xcool
na
2244. xcool
Saturday

85/53
Quoting xcool:
Saturday

85/53


ok....great numbers in F!

lol
2246. xcool
lmaoo
Quoting xcool:
lmaoo


aaaa....love good hot fresh.....COFFEE!!!
2248. xcool
mmm .
ur gonna get a low 53 next sat wow this early
2250. xcool
yea 53
2251. xcool
slidell la 30min from nola & getting really cold here.lets say if nola 57 outside slidell be 47 outside... far North that why
Average house price in Bermuda in 2007 was 1.845 million.

For that kind of price they better be hurricane resistant.
2253. xcool
oh my 1.845 million.
Quoting xcool:
slidell la 30min from nola & getting really cold here.lets say if nola 57 outside slidell be 47 outside... far North that why


Don't like cold....at 45 I have to wear long pants and shoes. people keep saying we are going to have a less brutal winter because of la nina!
Quoting xcool:
oh my 1.845 million.


I don't think my credit score will cover that one!!
2256. xcool
me too lol
2257. xcool
im go bed bye all.
Quoting xcool:
im go bed bye all.


night bro!
Quoting StormJunkie:


Have not ventured down the road of the "Rich Text"...

As for that solution...You know damn well you are in the protected zone and so that will never play out!

Morning Jerry, good to see ya.
rich text makes your entry pretty much appear as it will when posted. Understand it is supposed to help with posting images is the main reason for it's addition. Works best in firefox (duh) you are computer savy enough you can probably find it useful.


Ex-Igor...

Doesn't really the show the extratropical cyclone getting much stronger than that.
Quoting Cotillion:


Ex-Igor...

Doesn't really the show the extratropical cyclone getting much stronger than that.


good morning looks like you might get wet!
Quoting traumaboyy:


good morning looks like you might get wet!


From Igor?

If I lived in Greenland...

We've not had any remnants from storms this year.
2263. barbamz
Short hello from Germany ...

Dr. M. is on the Agency News:

"Very large" Hurricane Igor moves north of Bermuda

By Sam Strangeways and Ruth O'Kelly Lynch

HAMILTON | Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:12am EDT


(Reuters) - Hurricane Igor pounded Bermuda early on Monday as it moved north over the Atlantic, skirting the U.S. East Coast, which should suffer only rough surf and a stiff breezes.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the core of the "very large" category 1 hurricane, packing maximum sustained winds near to 75 miles per hour, was about 80 miles north northwest of Bermuda, a popular tourist destination and wealthy global insurance service hub, as of 2 a.m. EDT/0600 GMT.

The hurricane was moving north northeast at 16 miles per hour. A turn northwest away from the coast and an increase in forward speed were expected in the next 12-24 hours.

Igor was a very large storm, with hurricane force winds extending out about 90 miles from its center.

Bermuda residents reported uprooted trees, flying debris, widespread power outages, some flooding of streets and homes and boats torn free from moorings. There were no immediate reports of casualties.

Well over half of the territory's electricity users were hit by power outages according to the local power utility Belco. Bermuda has a population of more than 67,000.

Police spokesman Dwayne Caines said on Sunday high winds had driven waves up to 10-12 feet high "almost coming to the buildings in front of the ferry terminal" in the capital Hamilton.

"The rain is coming in sideways, basically it is very rough. Trees are down and there are branches blowing all over the place and there is lots of debris flying," Mark Tatem, a photographer for The Royal Gazette newspaper, wrote in a live hurricane chatroom set up by the paper.

Several roads in the capital were flooded.

Bermuda's roads were deserted and churches had canceled services. Most shops and restaurants in the capital were boarded up and residents had bought up emergency supplies like fuel, batteries, food and candles.

Local authorities on Sunday closed the causeway that links L.F. Wade International Airport and the eastern parish of St. George's to the rest of Bermuda. The airport was also closed.

Hurricane expert Jeff Masters of private U.S. forecaster Weather Underground said Igor lost some of its original destructive power due to the collapse of its eyewall -- a hurricane's most damaging inner zone -- earlier on Sunday.

The hurricane center predicted total rainfall of 6 to 9 inches over the Atlantic territory and said Igor's storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding and destructive waves, particularly along the south coast.

East of Igor, weakening Tropical Storm Julia posed no threat to land, and it was expected to dissipate on Tuesday, the hurricane center said.

In Mexico over the weekend, the remnants of Hurricane Karl dissipated over the mountains of south central Mexico, after killing at least eight people, emergency workers said.

Karl appeared to have spared Mexican oil operations from major damage after sweeping through the Bay of Campeche, where Mexico produces more than two-thirds of its 2.55 million barrels per day of crude output.

(Additional reporting by Katharine Jackson in Hamilton, Bermuda, and Luis Manuel Lopez in Villahermosa, Mexico; Writing by Pascal Fletcher and Todd Eastham; editing by Matthew Jones)
5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20
Location: 34.2°N 64.4°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NNE at 20 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb

Same as for Igor, more or less - up 2mb.

5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20
Location: 35.5°N 47.9°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: ENE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb

Julia actually strengthens.
Wow, 94L is really blowing up some convection this early morning...
Quoting Cotillion:


From Igor?

If I lived in Greenland...

We've not had any remnants from storms this year.


did not know which way he was headed
Quoting traumaboyy:


did not know which way he was headed


No worries. :)

Igor has now surpassed 40 in ACE, the first time in 6 years - 2004 had two storms to achieve it. Surpassing Ivan would be a tall order even for the most intense of Cape Verde hurricanes, being the second most plentiful ACE storm on record and was the most for over a hundred years. However, it looks like if the extratropical transition estimate is correct, Igor'll not surpass Frances. He'll probably top out around the 42-43 mark.
2268. CalTex

If anybody's here, would you take a look at this? The blob just south of Puerto Rico looks interesting, but I'm hoping it's nothing...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
Keep safe people in florida
Good morning, everyone.
2271. CalTex
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone.


I'm not sure anyone else is here, they all went to bed before I got here.
94L

I say TD at 11, Igor looks funny is he trying to rebuild an eye?
2274. aquak9
Quoting apocalyps:
Keep safe people in florida


now that's a funny way to start my week!
Hey CalTex,

There's usually people in, hmmm. They should be showing up soon.
We're under a sinking high ridge here and they're predicting very high temps again. While I love that the ridge has kept everything way south of us, I'm tired of close to 100 degrees every day for months. I am ready for some Fall weather!
morning all... what does everyone think of that little system coming off S. America there? Is that gonna be anything?
Anyone on that can tell me the difference between a sinking high ridge and a high ridge?
I noticed it, but have no idea.
Quoting aquak9:


now that's a funny way to start my week!


just about to say the same thing myself .....good morning maam!
Quoting Cotillion:


No worries. :)

Igor has now surpassed 40 in ACE, the first time in 6 years - 2004 had two storms to achieve it. Surpassing Ivan would be a tall order even for the most intense of Cape Verde hurricanes, being the second most plentiful ACE storm on record and was the most for over a hundred years. However, it looks like if the extratropical transition estimate is correct, Igor'll not surpass Frances. He'll probably top out around the 42-43 mark.


all I got is WOW!!
2283. WxLogic
Good Morning...
HurricaneIgor's heading had turned eastward to (9degrees north of) NorthEast
from its previous heading of (4degrees north of) NorthNorthEast
H.Igor's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~22.7mph(~36.5km/h)

19Sep 09amGMT - - 28.9n65.3w - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45
19Sep 12pmGMT - - 29.6n65.3w - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #45A
19Sep 03pmGMT - - 30.4n65.4w - - 85mph - - 949mb - - #46
19Sep 03pmGMT - - 30.8n65.7w - - 85mph - - 952mb - - NHC.Adv.#46A
19Sep 09pmGMT - - 31.5n65.9w - - 80mph - - 951mb - - #47
20Sep 12amGMT - - 31.9n65.7w - - 75mph - - 953mb - - #47A
20Sep 03amGMT - - 32.4n65.5w - - 75mph - - 955mb - - #48
20Sep 06amGMT - - 33.4n65.1w - - 75mph - - 955mb - - #48A
20Sep 09amGMT - - 34.2n64.4w - - 75mph - - 957mb - - #49

Copy&paste 28.9n65.3w, 29.6n65.3w, 30.4n65.4w, 30.8n65.7w, 31.5n65.9w-31.9n65.7w, 31.9n65.7w-32.4n65.5w, 32.4n65.5w-33.4n65.1w, 33.4n65.1w-34.2n64.4w, yqb, bda into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
2285. aquak9
g'morning trauma, ais'l, everyone.

2286. surfmom
Morning Folks of Daybreak - scanning quick b/4 barn work - incredible to wake up to a cooler 71 degree's...
2287. aquak9
incredible to wake up to a cooler 71 degree's...

I found it shocking as well- instantly brought back a fear of last winter-
Quoting surfmom:
Morning Folks of Daybreak - scanning quick b/4 barn work - incredible to wake up to a cooler 71 degree's...


Morning Surfmon,
71 here as well, though supposed to hit 100 today, not counting heat index. I'll put my hair up for parent pick up this afternoon or I'll look like I just stepped out of the shower.
2290. surfmom
Quoting aquak9:
incredible to wake up to a cooler 71 degree's...

I found it shocking as well- instantly brought back a fear of last winter-
yes!! no flip flops for weeks & running the garden seedling trays in and out of the house arrvy
Wow. I just woke up to 59 degrees here in Central Florida. Yay Fall!
2292. surfmom
Aislinn - morning - I forget where you are... yes, hitting 100 is getting OLD.... I have humidity reactive hair as well - lucky I work w/4-leggeds, they don't notice.... I see I go up to 92 - which means we have to work the horses asap in the AM before it gets hot.
59 to 60 right now and that's the max for the day.

Cloudy with rain showers all day. Light breeze.

No 'Indian Summer' this year.
I must admit I loved the snow three or four times last winter. Normally here we get snow once every three or four years.
2295. surfmom
2288Geoffrey - up early with those spaghetti maps eh? : )

2296. aquak9
2288- BAM suite is out to lunch, extended lunch, heck it's a food cruise. 94L is barely moving.
2297. Mikla
The wave that just left the coast I would expect to get a circle today... and there is another just coming out of centeral Africa...
Quoting surfmom:
Aislinn - morning - I forget where you are... yes, hitting 100 is getting OLD.... I have humidity reactive hair as well - lucky I work w/4-leggeds, they don't notice.... I see I go up to 92 - which means we have to work the horses asap in the AM before it gets hot.


I'm in Louisiana. I remember it being 107 at 7 pm when I lived in Kansas. We would have to walk the horses as it was too hot to ride and after a week like that they needed exercise. Friends would laugh when I said I was going to go walk the horses.
2299. surfmom
Quoting Cotillion:
59 to 60 right now and that's the max for the day.

Cloudy with rain showers all day. Light breeze.

No 'Indian Summer' this year.
You have to jump the pond to get some of that..... plenty of heat here for the next two months...and SUN
Quoting surfmom:
You have to jump the pond to get some of that..... plenty of heat here for the next two months...and SUN


Sun?

Oh, so that's what you call that glowing, warm orb in the sky?

We see it so little that we don't know what to call it...
Quoting Cotillion:


Sun?

Oh, so that's what you call that glowing, warm orb in the sky?

We see it so little that we don't know what to call it...


That's about how I feel about rain, those little wet drops that fall from the sky? I do remember them...
Quoting surfmom:
2288Geoffrey - up early with those spaghetti maps eh? : )



Like to have my carbs early in the day :)
2303. surfmom
Wow Aslinn - you all do stay HOT, HOT, HOT!! (Louisianna)
LOL - walking horses due to heat - been there : )
I'll probably hose them down today b/4 we start

more waves - kinda surprised - I thought there was enough SAL in the air to snuff them out...but I don't always get these things correct.

I guess the GOMEX is quiet - nothing cooking or festering w/remnants of Karl?
Quoting CalTex:

If anybody's here, would you take a look at this? The blob just south of Puerto Rico looks interesting, but I'm hoping it's nothing...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

I still don't like the blob just sitting off the TX Gulf Coast! I know it's not a "real" storm, but the flooding is real--gonna check out the roads before I even attempt going to work.
Quoting aquak9:
2288- BAM suite is out to lunch, extended lunch, heck it's a food cruise. 94L is barely moving.


Maybe not totally out to lunch.... Those BAM plots show a weeks (168 hours) of movement so in the grand scheme that is not a lot of movement.
I guess the GOMEX is quiet - nothing cooking or festering w/remnants of Karl?

There's a tropical wave, but don't know if it's from Karl
2307. aquak9
surfmom- we all good for 6-9 days.

apocolyps will keep us safe, hahaha

blessings ya'll
2308. surfmom
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Like to have my carbs early in the day :)

LOL - be careful - those spaghetti's have cause some to choke
Good morning all. Interesting tidbit from Lake Charles, NWS, 5:30 am discussion:

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING
EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...BUT MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO THE FORECAST THEREAFTER...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER IN REGARD TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER NOAM. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION OF A MASSIVE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WAS
DEEMED AN OUTLIER...WITH THE UKMET AND CANADIAN GEM OFFERING
GREATER SUPPORT TO THE GFS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK RELIED PRIMARILY ON THE GFS...WHICH
SHOWS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO CONTINUE TO HINT AT POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO BEING EXTREMELY FAR OUT IN TIME...UNTIL THE
FORECAST PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BECOMES CLEARER...I AM
HESITANT TO SPECULATE ON WHERE SUCH AN ENTITY WOULD GO. SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.



2310. aquak9
quickly- eyewall hi and good morning

BAMS is fine on speed, I'm agreeing with that. Realized that after I posted.

I meant direction. Doubt 94L will even make it that far west.

:)
79 here in Palm Beach County :(
2312. surfmom
Ah!! Thanks Aqua -- that's as far ahead as I usually look in life generally
six to nine
good for peace of mind

OK - time to seize the day - may you all have a GREAT one
Quoting swlaaggie:
Good morning all. Interesting tidbit from Lake Charles, NWS, 5:30 am discussion:

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK...SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING
EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...BUT MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING
WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO THE FORECAST THEREAFTER...WITH
MODELS SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER IN REGARD TO THE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER NOAM. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION OF A MASSIVE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WAS
DEEMED AN OUTLIER...WITH THE UKMET AND CANADIAN GEM OFFERING
GREATER SUPPORT TO THE GFS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK RELIED PRIMARILY ON THE GFS...WHICH
SHOWS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO CONTINUE TO HINT AT POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO BEING EXTREMELY FAR OUT IN TIME...UNTIL THE
FORECAST PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BECOMES CLEARER...I AM
HESITANT TO SPECULATE ON WHERE SUCH AN ENTITY WOULD GO. SUFFICE IT
TO SAY THAT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.





Have a great day, Surfmom!

I follow Lake Charles as well. Hopefully this time next week it is saying the exact same thing.
Quoting cctxshirl:

I still don't like the blob just sitting off the TX Gulf Coast! I know it's not a "real" storm, but the flooding is real--gonna check out the roads before I even attempt going to work.

I'm in st thomas so have been watching the convection/cloud bank south of PR carefully for development. It is all tropical moisture being pulled north into the trough left by Igor. We are having very unusual. SW and S winds and the convection was streaming north linerly yesterday in streamers with no sign of circulation. So for now no worrie. Bower as this moves west it may be a trigger that develops something farther west on the carib along with the disturbance just east of the windwards so we all need to monitor nhc becuase things are spinning up VERY fast this year once they get organized
Quoting sailingallover:

I'm in st thomas so have been watching the convection/cloud bank south of PR carefully for development. It is all tropical moisture being pulled north into the trough left by Igor. We are having very unusual. SW and S winds and the convection was streaming north linerly yesterday in streamers with no sign of circulation. So for now no worrie. Bower as this moves west it may be a trigger that develops something farther west on the carib along with the disturbance just east of the windwards so we all need to monitor nhc becuase things are spinning up VERY fast this year once they get organized


I read something coming up from southwest of it could combine and create a possible TD
2316. IKE
Based on the model runs I've seen and the discussions I've read from weather offices in the SE USA, the northern GOM(Louisiana, eastward to the big bend of Florida), may be protected from tropical systems by...high pressure this week and a couple of cold fronts moving through the next 7-12 days.
Quoting IKE:
Based on the model runs I've seen and the discussions I've read from weather offices in the SE USA, the northern GOM(Louisiana, eastward to the big bend of Florida), may be protected from tropical systems by...high pressure this week and a couple of cold fronts moving through the next 7-12 days.


That works for me. *S*
Quoting Mikla:
The wave that just left the coast I would expect to get a circle today... and there is another just coming out of centeral Africa...

interesting thing on this sat pic is you can see the first Low in Spain withit's trailng cold front which marks the beginning of the end for CV season
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Have a great day, Surfmom!

I follow Lake Charles as well. Hopefully this time next week it is saying the exact same thing.


Actually, I'm kind of hoping they reference how cool it is this time next week.

:-)

Hope everyone has a great day.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


That works for me. *S*


Not for me, I live well south of the Big Bend.
2321. IKE
Jackson,MS.....

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
ARKLAMISS THROUGH LATE WEEK ACCORDING TO GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE...THUS KEEPING THE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AROUND FOR
AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS...BUT A PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST BY NEXT
WEEKEND TO MORE OF A POSITIVE PNA TYPE WITH A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

IT APPEARS THAT IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES.
DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD FIZZLE OUT BY LATE
IN THE EVENING.

PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM
CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERMODYNAMIC
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BE
IMPRESSIVE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE < 1000 J/KG...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.

DRY NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
FEW MOS MEMBERS IN THE GEFS INDICATE LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S NEXT SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...ESPECIALLY BEYOND SUNDAY.
Quoting IKE:
Based on the model runs I've seen and the discussions I've read from weather offices in the SE USA, the northern GOM(Louisiana, eastward to the big bend of Florida), may be protected from tropical systems by...high pressure this week and a couple of cold fronts moving through the next 7-12 days.


the power of positive thinking in play - cool weather and no spinning thingies

:-)
2324. Mikla
The wave near 12,-55 is under good conditions (low shear, moisture, warm water, decent convergence), but needs some rotation if it is to develop into something.
2325. scott39
Good Morning, It looks like after this weekend the GFS weakens the high Fl.- Eastward and the EURO keeps in place. So the difference in anything that were to develope is still a big spread in the track.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not for me, I live well south of the Big Bend.


Ouch, well, then I'll be a loop-caster, he'll/she'll get into the Gulf and do loop-d-loops and not hit any of us. *G*

Classroom of kiddies waiting for me. Have a great day, everyone. Later all!
2327. IKE
Here's the Tallahassee,FL. extended covering the panhandle through Walton county....

"""LONG TERM...
(WED. NIGHT - MONDAY). THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE
LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEY DO GENERALLY INDICATE DECREASING UPPER HEIGHTS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AND SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN SHOW THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING
SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A VERY NARROW MOISTURE
AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE...RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. IN ITS
WAKE...THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING A VERY DRY AIRMASS FILLING BACK IN
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK."""..............
............................................

ECMWF shows a NE Caribbean tropical system heading west across the Yucatan...like Alex and Karl, because of high pressure over the SE USA.

GFS shows a Caribbean storm crossing Cuba and grazing the east coast of Florida and heading up toward GA. Based off of the cold front moving through the northern GOM, forcing a system NE to NNE in track.

Looks like either scenario protects the northern GOM...subject to change though.
no doom with igor take more than a cat 1 to do that its rare to get a major over those islands
2330. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Here's the Tallahassee,FL. extended covering the panhandle through Walton county....

"""LONG TERM...
(WED. NIGHT - MONDAY). THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE
LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEY DO GENERALLY INDICATE DECREASING UPPER HEIGHTS IN
ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AND SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE
MEAN SHOW THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING
SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA WITH A VERY NARROW MOISTURE
AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE...RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. IN ITS
WAKE...THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING A VERY DRY AIRMASS FILLING BACK IN
OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK."""..............
............................................

ECMWF shows a NE Caribbean tropical system heading west across the Yucatan...like Alex and Karl, because of high pressure over the SE USA.

GFS shows a Caribbean storm crossing Cuba and grazing the east coast of Florida and heading up toward GA. Based off of the cold front moving through the northern GOM, forcing a system NE to NNE in track.

Looks like either scenario protects the northern GOM...subject to change though.
Thanks, When do forecasts of troughs and high pressures become the most accurate? ( Time Wise)
2331. P451
Igor continuing to steadily transition to extra-tropical. The core collapse he went through yesterday was the beginning of this transition.

Anyone have any info on how Bermuda fared?

2332. liljade
The wave in the gulf looks to be moving out more into the Gulf, am I seeing this right? The beach has been rough and tides above normal in Galveston.
2333. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, When do forecasts of troughs and high pressures become the most accurate? ( Time Wise)


I'd say in about 2-3 days they'll have a better handle on it.

Here's the New Orleans extended....

"LONG TERM...

THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY WITH SLIDING THE
UPPER RIDGE EAST AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND SLIDING A
TROUGH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN MORE AGGRESSIVENESS WITH THESE
FEATURES AS THEY DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND ADVERTISE DEW POINTS AND TEMPS DROPPING OFF INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SUMMER TYPE TEMPS
MAY LINGER A FEW DAYS INTO THE FALL...BUT ACCORDING TO THIS CHANGE
IS ON THE WAY."
we are going to see his name again in the future igor
Question-96L on the Pacific side--is that from Karl?
2336. scott39
Quoting IKE:


I'd say in about 2-3 days they'll have a better handle on it.

Here's the New Orleans extended....

"LONG TERM...

THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY WITH SLIDING THE
UPPER RIDGE EAST AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND SLIDING A
TROUGH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE ALSO SHOWN MORE AGGRESSIVENESS WITH THESE
FEATURES AS THEY DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AND ADVERTISE DEW POINTS AND TEMPS DROPPING OFF INTO
THE LOWER 60S IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SUMMER TYPE TEMPS
MAY LINGER A FEW DAYS INTO THE FALL...BUT ACCORDING TO THIS CHANGE
IS ON THE WAY."
Thanks, Doesnt that open a weakness over New Orleans late this weakend?
2337. shawn26
Does anyone think anything is going to form in the carribean by this weekend?
2338. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, Doesnt that open a weakness over New Orleans late this weakend?


Not if a front moves through, which I'm not sure is going to even happen.
2339. P451
Java intensive loop here save your work before clicking.

NORTH AMERICA: 60 Hour WV Loop with 1 Hour increments.

Courtesy of the U of Hawaii



===
static image:

Quoting Orcasystems:


A link to an onsite blog is legit....
A link to an offsite (nonWU) is basically spamming.



According to Dr. Masters Rules of the Road, what you've implied in the direct quote you've made above is an out and out untruth.

From Dr. Masters' Rules of the Road:

Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.

From my short time on this blog, I've noticed that you yourself do this all the time.

Shame on you.
2341. 7544
Quoting shawn26:
Does anyone think anything is going to form in the carribean by this weekend?


morning all looks like something trying to get going down there now maybe 95l today ?
Quoting cctxshirl:
Question-96L on the Pacific side--is that from Karl?


It's related to what was Karl, yeah. Much in the same way that energy from TD11-E helped spawn Hermine.
2343. MahFL
Quoting P451:
Igor continuing to steadily transition to extra-tropical. The core collapse he went through yesterday was the beginning of this transition.

Anyone have any info on how Bermuda fared?



26,300 out of 35,000 with no power.
A few sunken boats.
2344. IKE
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING ON BERMUDA...
8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20
Location: 35.2°N 64.0°W
Max sustained: 75 mph
Moving: NNE at 21 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
"Hurricane Igor is moving north-east of Bermuda after pounding the island with huge winds and fierce waves.

The storm caused flooding and power cuts to thousands of homes, but spared Bermuda the widespread destruction of a direct hit.

...

A Royal Navy warship and helicopter had been standing offshore ready to help with relief efforts.


But considerable damage was still reported, as residents battened down their homes and property, and winds brought down trees and power lines.

Flooding was reported in low-lying areas late on Sunday, while streets in the capital Hamilton were under several inches of water and littered with storm debris.

There have been no reports of anyone being injured.

Bermuda's energy company, Belco, said about 16,000 of its 35,000 customers were without power."

Link
The carribean is very very juicy. something likely to percolate up from that area soon
2347. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Not if a front moves through, which I'm not sure is going to even happen.
Thanks. I believe in another blog, someone asked if Karl might do that.
2349. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL STORM JULIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1165 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
2350. IKE
At one point, Bermuda was looking at possibly a Category 4 hurricane direct hit. Cat 3 at least.

They managed to get away with a weakening Category One while missing the worst winds.

Bermuda have both been lucky and unlucky this year. Unlucky in the fact that 4 storms have wanted to get close, but also lucky that those 4 storms have all weakened and/or deviated away.
Ike
- Just wanted to thank you for adding the NWS reporting station at the top of your posts.

MODIFIED - You too swlaggie
2353. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Not if a front moves through, which I'm not sure is going to even happen.
If an area from New Orleans to the SE Atlantic Coast is exposed and a approaching TC misses that first Trough that pushed the High E, and there is not another Approaching trough. How does this effect the steering of a TC in the GOM?
Quoting IKE:
Based on the model runs I've seen and the discussions I've read from weather offices in the SE USA, the northern GOM(Louisiana, eastward to the big bend of Florida), may be protected from tropical systems by...high pressure this week and a couple of cold fronts moving through the next 7-12 days.


You forgot to mention the FL Penisula as it is becoming clear the the FL Penisula is in for a lashing.
both systems one south of hispanola and the other east of the windwards got good potential.
2356. IKE
Quoting scott39:
If an area from New Orleans to the SE Atlantic Coast is exposed and a approaching TC misses that first Trough that pushed the High E, and there is not another Approaching trough. How does this effect the steering of a TC in the GOM?


If a high builds back in it would probably force it back west some.

Quoting IKE:


If a high builds back in it would probably force it back west some.



Might be one of those storms - should it develop - where the timing of the trough is everything.
2358. scott39
Quoting IKE:


If a high builds back in it would probably force it back west some.

Thanks, Hopefully our luck will hold for another season.
Wow, Igor has the highest ACE of any Atlantic Hurricane since Ivan in 2004....

It's up over 40 right now..
Well .....good wind and low pressure at Station 41040 (14.5N 53W)

Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts ENE
Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1009.8 mb
2361. P451
Quoting poknsnok:
The carribean is very very juicy. something likely to percolate up from that area soon


The low pressure and associated moisture that usually resides over northern South America is being drawn northward by Igor's left behind trough and also being forced northward by the entity (Kelvin Wave) that moved from the Pacific eastward. The latter expected development was touched on by crownweather and joe b several days ago and is still occurring.

With that heat, that moisture, that disturbance, and an anti-cyclone expected over the region I think it may be a given we're going to see development in the Caribbean during the next few weeks.

Everyone and everything seems to hint at this.

How much, how organized, and thus how strong? Anyone's guess. Where will it go? Impossible to even guess that right now given the lower 48's transition into a fall pattern of whose timing is also up in the air.
Quoting Cotillion:
At one point, Bermuda was looking at possibly a Category 4 hurricane direct hit. Cat 3 at least.

They managed to get away with a weakening Category One while missing the worst winds.

Bermuda have both been lucky and unlucky this year. Unlucky in the fact that 4 storms have wanted to get close, but also lucky that those 4 storms have all weakened and/or deviated away.


Actually, from quite early on the official forecast called for a Cat. 2 at Bermuda...all of us upcasting Wunderbloggers just thought that must be too low.
Quoting FlyingScotsman:


Actually, from quite early on the official forecast called for a Cat. 2 at Bermuda...all of us upcasting Wunderbloggers just thought that must be too low.


Most of the time, though there were advisories calling for a major impact.
All the models seem to indicate the tropical cyclone being depicted will become absolutely massive, big as Igor.
GFS for example.
Link
Major hurricane over Fort Pierce,FL. in 12 days riding up the east coast of FL. YIKES!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp1_288.shtml
Yeah, the 6z GFS brings one into Georgia by the end.

Pretty much on top of Savannah.

That model has had something about Georgia this year, not been the first time it has tried it.
good morning Jeff,

yeah, I was reading from a few other forecasters that even though there is going to be a building high pressure a weakness in the high is projected to be strong enough to curve the storm north then northeast most likely far enough to affect the west coast of florida.

If this happens, I am curious the potential strength of the storm and how far east and north it could curve.

I just wonder about the amount of dry air the storm will encounter... should be interesting
I guess that means the trough will pretty strong and start recurving the storm much earlier than the western caribbean
Quoting CybrTeddy:
All the models seem to indicate the tropical cyclone being depicted will become absolutely massive, big as Igor.
GFS for example.
Link


With more storms to follow. People in FL better pay attention to this because it is not looking good for the state.
In fact, that run has the projected storm swerving so much all over the place. So much so, the storm could be arrested for DUI.

Too much Caribbean rum.
Here's some buoy info from one right under that mess at around 70N 15W:

Station 42059
NDBC
Location: 15.054N 67.472W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 20 Sep 2010 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: WSW (240°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 13 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in and rising
Air Temperature: 81.3 F
Dew Point: 74.8 F
Water Temperature: 86.5 F
2372. scott39
Ike, Once a TC forms do local forecasters go more off what the NHC forecasts, or do they differ sometimes? Does that difference ever show a big discrepancy in favor of the local forecast? I know the NHC is the Gold Standard in TC forecasting. I was Wondering, based on your experience?
correction... 70W 15N... had the coordinates backwards... if one was at 70N that would be a talker!
2374. IKE
They usually go by what the NHC says, from what I've read in the discussions.
Good morning...there's this,



and there's this.

Quoting scott39:
Ike, Once a TC forms do local forecasters go more off what the NHC forecasts, or do they differ sometimes? Does that difference ever show a big discrepancy in favor of the local forecast? I know the NHC is the Gold Standard in TC forecasting. I was Wondering, based on your experience?


most around here seem to stick to the NHC forecast while possibly dropping subtle hints. I don't think the station's want any part of broadcasting something in conflict with the NHC.
AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE W ALONG 15N57W TO 9N54W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 51W-59W.

CIMSSVorticityMap
Quoting whepton3:
correction... 70W 15N... had the coordinates backwards... if one was at 70N that would be a talker!


It would. Tropical cyclogenesis just north of Iceland. That would put the poles melting into a different light.

--

It also seems that Karl has done less damage to Mexico than Alex did. Seems less fatalities as well. While every life taken and every livelihood destroyed is a tragedy, it is good to see that, at least provisionally, that the storm was not as bad as feared.
I see the Carribean will become the next theater of cyclogenisis. Although GFS features a storm traversing the east coast of Florida it is still too far out for credence.
I say soon we may see a yellow or orange crayon soon on that trough that is located at 55W and then 95L thereafter
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say soon we may see a yellow or orange crayon soon on that trough that is located at 55W and then 95L thereafter

Agree 55 looks ripe. yikes. better get to work now.
have a great monday everyone.
2382. IKE
MJO....

2383. SQUAWK
Quoting MsStormX:


According to Dr. Masters Rules of the Road, what you've implied in the direct quote you've made above is an out and out untruth.

From Dr. Masters' Rules of the Road:

Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.

From my short time on this blog, I've noticed that you yourself do this all the time.

Shame on you.


If you had been paying attention over the last couple of years you would know he has always done that. If Admin disapproved of it, they would have done something long ago. They haven't, so it must be OK with them. He does provide valuable info there that would take up a lot of space here. So it is a good thing.
2384. FLdewey
S-L-O-W weather day yesterday... maybe in honor of the Dolphins undefeated season. (Yeah I know... it'll be over soon)

2385. hydrus
Quoting Cotillion:
In fact, that run has the projected storm swerving so much all over the place. So much so, the storm could be arrested for DUI.

Too much Caribbean rum.
No wonder those Caribbean storms pack a punch,,,,Its spiked...Good morning Cottilion.
2386. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
MJO....



Busy week coming up...
2387. hydrus
Quoting IKE:
MJO....

That is a scary MJO graph..
2388. IKE
Here's today's....

Morning All. Really glad to see that Igor went down a few notches before affecting Bermuda and 94L looking good so far with an anti-cyclone over it. Sheer really low at the moment between Africa and the Antilles so just have to keep an eye on that region. If 94L developes (and the sooner the better the chances of a fish), then it might be considered a continuation of the current "cluster" of storms that started about three weeks ago.
Quoting hydrus:
No wonder those Caribbean storms pack a punch,,,,Its spiked...Good morning Cottilion.


Morning Hydrus!

Yeah, I think the 00z GFS is even worse, though.

It has it swerving over the Caribbean Sea, over Cuba, swerves all over the Bahamas, goes along the Florida East Coast... then sees Georgia and obviously sees the ancient 'No hurricanes here' sign, backs on itself without a GA landfall, crosses Central Florida, then hits SW Louisiana as a TD/weak TS.

Crazy.

Definitely too much rum - more Matthew Bellamy than Matthew Broderick (assuming 94L becomes Lisa).
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Morning All. Really glad to see that Igor went down a few notches before affecting Bermuda and 92L looking good so far with an anti-cyclone over it. Sheer really low at the moment between Africa and the Antilles so just have to keep an eye on that region. If 92L developes (and the sooner the better the chances of a fish), then it might be considered a continuation of the current "cluster" of storms that started about three weeks ago.


94L*,

But yea, I agree with you.
Florida and the Gulf Coast Really Need to Pay Attention this Late September/October.

The GFS as Well as The CMC pick up on a Florida hit.

What does this mean? Right now nothing... but it is possibe to materialize
Quoting CybrTeddy:


94L*,

But yea, I agree with you.


Thanks (corrected below).............Need to put my reading glasses back on........ :)
2394. hydrus
Quoting weatherwart:
Wow. I just woke up to 59 degrees here in Central Florida. Yay Fall!
Where in Central Florida?...
Quoting IKE:
MJO....



All I got to say is OUCH! This could allow for mulitple landfalls across FL in the coming weeks. It looks as if the Caribbean will go BOOM!
Morning everyone, DJ, Dewey. Woke up to frost this morning, wish I was somewhere warmer. Hopefully you guys can start posting your long gfs and others long runs. Runs. Got a mind like Peter Griffen this morning.
2397. hydrus
Quoting Cotillion:


Morning Hydrus!

Yeah, I think the 00z GFS is even worse, though.

It has it swerving over the Caribbean Sea, over Cuba, swerves all over the Bahamas, goes along the Florida East Coast... then sees Georgia and obviously sees the ancient 'No hurricanes here' sign, backs on itself without a GA landfall, crosses Central Florida, then hits SW Louisiana as a TD/weak TS.

Crazy.

Definitely too much rum - more Matthew Bellamy than Matthew Broderick (assuming 94L becomes Lisa).
The interesting part is there,s a lot of potential storm development out in the Atlantic Basin...I have a hunch we will be tracking more dangerous hurricanes..even though we have had considerable activity so far..
Quoting IKE:
MJO....




Could be a very active MJO enhanced Sept/Oct in the Caribbean & GOM to finish out the 2010 year.






Quoting weatherwart:
Wow. I just woke up to 59 degrees here in Central Florida. Yay Fall!

Now this is bull. I live in Longwood,FL north of Orlando and it was 74 degrees. Someone is lying! We won't get to the upper 50's until the end of October or November.
2400. WxLogic
I don't expect the disturbances at 55W and 70W to develop (although I'm keeping it a possibility):



What I foresee and mentioned before is that these features will converge over the W Carib and add more energy to the existing one over the region which should jump start the cyclogenesis process.

In the VORT images below notice the instability over the W Carib and all it needs is a lifting mechanism to get convection started.

850MB


500MB
Major disagreement between the ECMWF operational and its ensemble members.





Quoting Jeff9641:


All I got to say is OUCH! This could allow for mulitple landfalls across FL in the coming weeks. It looks as if the Caribbean will go BOOM!
boom boom boom
Quoting hydrus:
Where in Central Florida?...


Don't believe him! Mid 70's to near 80 at the beaches at 7am in C FL this morning with maybe upper 60's in the Ocala area.
Quoting hydrus:
Where in Central Florida?...


In a Cave.. LOL JK
Action should start shifting to the West soon (as discussed here early last week) and the biggest question I have is whether the Caribbean or Gulf will spawn any "majors" in October or early November......Guess it will all depend on what SST's look like at that time in those regions me thinks.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Quoting weatherwart:
Wow. I just woke up to 59 degrees here in Central Florida. Yay Fall!

Now this is bull. I live in Longwood,FL north of Orlando and it was 74 degrees. Someone is lying! We won't get to the upper 50's until the end of October or November.


Sorry, NO LIE! I live in Spring Hill, Fl. and it was 61 here at 7:00AM
lisa coming soon
2408. pottery
Good Morning all.
Looking at the area east of here, at about 50W.
Will get some rains from that for sure.
Some Vorticity around there too.
In fact, the entire Caribbean looks pretty Threatening right now....
I am surprised that the 0z ECMWF operational run expects this system to miss the longwave trough.
What are the Chances of a Florida Hit this Year?
2411. WxLogic
Quoting futuremet:
Major disagreement between the ECMWF operational and its ensemble members.



Indeed... noticed the Operational is attempting to create an Omega type block pattern while the Ensemble doesn't appears to be quite bullish at this:

According to the 06Z GFS, our seed will come from a monsoonal type development.

Quoting Jeff9641:


Don't believe him! Mid 70's to near 80 at the beaches at 7am in C FL this morning with maybe upper 60's in the Ocala area.


Low in Tampa was around 72 this a.m. Brooksville area is normally about 10 degrees cooler. So I wouldn't be totally shocked with low 60s in that area.
2414. hydrus
Quoting sammywammybamy:


In a Cave.. LOL JK
Tell ya what...59 degrees anywhere in Florida is a treat this time of year...:)
Quoting sammywammybamy:
What are the Chances of a Florida Hit this Year?



Looking real good right now and not just either.
Noticed in SEFL the edge has been taken off the humidity, much more relaxing round here lately.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
What are the Chances of a Florida Hit this Year?


Impossible to answer at this point; I think the 50/50 chance between the Gulf/Florida suggested by Dr. Gray and company also took into account the Cape Verde part of the season and we have not seen any of those storms steered our way yet....You own guess is as good as anyones.
Quoting WxLogic:


Indeed... noticed the Operational is attempting to create an Omega type block pattern while the Ensemble doesn't appears to be quite bullish at this:



Why do they call it an Omega type block, the shape?
Quoting sammywammybamy:
What are the Chances of a Florida Hit this Year?


either 0% or 100%. Just have to wait and see which one it is.
Quoting hydrus:
The interesting part is there,s a lot of potential storm development out in the Atlantic Basin...I have a hunch we will be tracking more dangerous hurricanes..even though we have had considerable activity so far..


Yes, quite possible. Here was my thoughts from yesterday about the rest of the season reiterated:

A look at the 7 other Nino-to-Nina seasons since 1950:

1964: At this point, we were in the middle of Gladys at her strongest. 9-4-4 was the total (remember, the first two tropical storms were nameless). 3-2-2 was left in the season, including Hilda and Isbell. Hilda forming in late Sept going into early Oct; Isbell being a mid Oct storm; TS12 was a mid November TS. Landfalls: All three (Hilda - Gulf Coast; Isbell - Florida; TS12 - Central America). Sep 1, Oct 1, Nov 1.

1970: We just had TS Felice, leaving the season at 7-3-2. 3-2-0 remained for the season. TS Greta was in late Sept to early Oct; Hurricanes 9 & 10 were Central Atlantic storms in October. Landfalls: One (Greta hitting Yucatan, Florida Keys). Sep 1, Oct 2, Nov 0.

1973: Ellen was in the Atlantic, 6-1-1 (inc one STS). 2-1-0 remained. Fran and Gilda in October. Landfalls: One (Gilda hitting Cuba and Bahamas). Sep 0, Oct 2, Nov 0.

1988: Gilbert was dying off, Helene was forming: 8-2-1, Helene taking it up to 9-3-2. 3-1-1 left for the season. Helene was a powerful Cape Verde in the Central Atlantic in September. Isaac was late Sept to early Oct, Joan hitting Nicaragua as a powerful storm in October, Keith rounding out the season. Landfalls: Three (Isaac in Lesser Antilles, Joan - Central America, Keith - Mexico and Florida). (not inc Helene, also Sep) Sep 1, Oct 1, Nov 1.

1995: Marilyn was in the Atlantic, 13-7-3 at that time. 6-4-2 left for the season; Noel and Opal remained in September, Pablo through to Tanya in October. Tanya extended into first few days of November. Landfalls: 3 (Opal - Mexico, Gulf Coast; Roxanne - Mexico; Sebastien - Lesser Antilles). Sep 2, Oct 4.

1998: Georges and Hermine in the Atlantic. Ivan forming shortly. 8-3-2, Ivan taking it to 9-4-2. 5-5-1 left for the season. Past Ivan, Cape Verde season still going with Jeanne and Karl. Mitch was the unfortunate vocal point left, being a Category 5 and causing damage beyond what most people could ever fathom. Landfalls: 1 (Mitch - Central America). Sep 2, Oct 2, Nov 1.

2007: Amazing, there was a lull in September and we were in it 3 years ago. Humberto and Ingrid had gone and Jerry was next. 9-3-2 on the doors. 6-3-0 left. Cape Verde season still to spit out notorious Karen. Lorenzo going under RI in the BoC. Noel was the main focal point with his damage to the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. Landfalls: 3 (Lorenzo - Mexico, Noel - Cuba, Bahamas, Haiti; Olga - Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic). Sep 4, Oct 1, Nov 0 (Dec 1).

--

Taking an average of all those 7, you're left with 4-3-1. Now, that's on the low side, particularly taking into account the last 3 seasons.

Take the mean road of the last 3...

You're left with 5 or 6-4-1.

That leaves us with... 16 or 17-9-6. Which is already very high, but that's roughly the numbers to expect for the rest of the season.

Now, recall that 2005 had only 11 storms left from this date onwards, although we were in the midst of Hurricane Rita. It was 17-10-5 at this point, with 11-5-2 remaining. Even if that were to replicate, we'd only just manage to reach the 20 storm mark. In essence, it is very unlikely to see a 'T' or 'W' storm this year. 'Richard' is likely to be the last.

Furthermore, even in the quieter seasons, landfalls were still coming. Of those 5 to 6 storms left, I'd expect at least half to end in a landfall of some kind.

In one's own humble opinion, naturally...

Feel free to agree or disagree.
2422. WxLogic
Quoting futuremet:
I am surprised that the 0z ECMWF operational run expects this system to miss the longwave trough.


I doubt that ii can miss it... the TROF is deep enough, but of course it is possible assuming the disturbance takes shape over the extreme western Carib close to Yucatan as it could potentially get trapped. Notice how GFS actually develops the system further E from where ECMWF is trying to develop it.

Of course this all remains to be seen as the weak progresses and ingredients come together.
2423. FLdewey
Quoting Jeff9641:
Quoting weatherwart:
Wow. I just woke up to 59 degrees here in Central Florida. Yay Fall!

Now this is bull. I live in Longwood,FL north of Orlando and it was 74 degrees. Someone is lying! We won't get to the upper 50's until the end of October or November.

Easy killer... deep breathing. ;-)

Ocala was in the low 60s this morning... so I think 59 is possible somewhere in the foothills of Orlando.
2424. hydrus
Quoting BobinTampa:


Low in Tampa was around 72 this a.m. Brooksville area is normally about 10 degrees cooler. So I wouldn't be totally shocked with low 60s in that area.
I know..It is always much cooler in Brooksville..I have always wondered why...I do like that area, and almost all the areas to the north too Crystal River, Cedar keys..Etc
2425. WxLogic
Quoting BLee2333:


Why do they call it an Omega type block, the shape?


Correct... because of the shape.
2426. FLdewey
Quoting BobinTampa:


either 0% or 100%. Just have to wait and see which one it is.

There is a 10% chance a storm of 30kts or greater will affect at least 10 Florida counties.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Action should start shifting to the West soon (as discussed here early last week) and the biggest question I have is whether the Caribbean or Gulf will spawn any "majors" in October or early November......Guess it will all depend on what SST's look like at that time in those regions me thinks.
rocket fuel

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Noticed in SEFL the edge has been taken off the humidity, much more relaxing round here lately.


It will roar back tomorrow and definitly later this week as a trough plows in from the Bahamas. This could be the rain before the big hurricane the models are predicting to hit FL.
Back to work.........See Yall this afternoon.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Impossible to answer at this point; I think the 50/50 chance between the Gulf/Florida suggested by Dr. Gray and company also took into account the Cape Verde part of the season and we have not seen any of those storms steered our way yet....You own guess is as good as anyones.


So Chances are Florida Might Get another Wilma. As a Front or Trough picks up a Storm in the carribean and Pulls it N Then NE?
Have you ever seen a larger 12 foot seas area then Igor right now?

1400 NM right now
Quoting FLdewey:

Easy killer... deep breathing. ;-)

Ocala was in the low 60s this morning... so I think 59 is possible somewhere in the foothills of Orlando.


Hard to believe the big difference in temps from my area to just nw of me.
I usually go up to play golf at World Woods in Brooksville around Thanksgiving. Several times I've left Tampa bright and early with the temp around 55. When I got to World Woods, our tee time was delayed due to frost.



Quoting sammywammybamy:


So Chances are Florida Might Get another Wilma. As a Front or Trough picks up a Storm in the carribean and Pulls it N Then NE?


'Tis the season for storms coming west to east across Florida's west coast... the risk is high through Halloween...
Quoting FLdewey:

There is a 10% chance a storm of 30kts or greater will affect at least 10 Florida counties.


But there's only a 10% chance of that. :)

vague Naked Gun reference...
Quoting BLee2333:


Why do they call it an Omega type block, the shape?


Omega blocks are so-named because the height fields associated with them resemble an Ω, the uppercase Greek letter omega. The typical pattern for this is low-high-low, arranged in the west-east direction. Here is a pic from 2006.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Have you ever seen a larger 12 foot seas area then Igor right now?

1400 NM right now
Good morning. Been out of the loop since Friday.

I noticed that the GFS model has changed again since last Thursday and now has gone away from a St Pete storm to something developing in the Carribean and hitting SC. I'll believe it when I see it though.

Could someone email me the info for Storm's new blog?

DestinJ and FLdewey good morning. Good morning Ike.
2439. MahFL
Still 41 mph winds at Bermuda Airport.
Quoting hydrus:
I know..It is always much cooler in Brooksville..I have always wondered why...I do like that area, and almost all the areas to the north too Crystal River, Cedar keys..Etc
...,topogrophy and inland location, i believe brooksville has some of the highest elevation in central/south fl....
2441. mbinmo
Quoting apocalyps:
Keep safe people in florida


it would be but he's talking about igor.
Is the **Pattern** Changing?
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Is the **Pattern** Changing?
yep keep yer head up and yer eyes wide open
2444. breald
Hello all!! Are the models still showing a up the coast storm?
2445. divdog
Quoting sammywammybamy:
What are the Chances of a Florida Hit this Year?
?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Quoting sammywammybamy:


So Chances are Florida Might Get another Wilma. As a Front or Trough picks up a Storm in the carribean and Pulls it N Then NE?


Dr. Knabb is very much on board with a NW Caribbean development. He believes that the energy east of the islands will move into the NW Caribbean and merge up with low pressure coming off of South America and developing a storm. He did not speak of a potential track.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Is the **Pattern** Changing?


Doesn't it always this time of year? Climatology.....
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Doesn't it always this time of year? Climatology.....


Yes, But this Year the Congregation of Tracks are into Mexico and OTS/Bermuda. Discount Bonnie and TD 5.

I Was Just Wondering if we will see a Carribean Tracker like Wilma and Mitch.
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Good morning. Been out of the loop since Friday.

I noticed that the GFS model has changed again since last Thursday and now has gone away from a St Pete storm to something developing in the Carribean and hitting SC. I'll believe it when I see it though.

Could someone email me the info for Storm's new blog?

DestinJ and FLdewey good morning. Good morning Ike.


You got it...

everyone is talking like the game is about to change in the western atlantic... are these two storms setting up along 15N the beginning?
2451. angiest
Good morning, here is my update on the storm GFS has been developing in the Caribbean in a week:
Link
Quoting FLdewey:

That's the ridge being pumped.


Change the p to an H.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Yes, But this Year the Congregation of Tracks are into Mexico and OTS/Bermuda. Discount Bonnie and TD 5.

I Was Just Wondering if we will see a Carribean Tracker like Wilma and Mitch.


I think we will see a track like a Wilma. Don't know if is the potential system we're speaking of now or another one in October. I very much believe that 2 storms are going to threaten the area from FL to Miss.
Jeff I was looking at the models this morning. I see the CMC (constantly making cyclones) and the NoGAPs are hinting at a Carribean storm to influence Florida from the west, but are you taking about a system coming from the Bahamas? Which models?

Quoting Jeff9641:


It will roar back tomorrow and definitly later this week as a trough plows in from the Bahamas. This could be the rain before the big hurricane the models are predicting to hit FL.
2456. hydrus
COTILLION- RE post# 2421...That was a very good read..Thank you for it.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Thanks ORCA! Ill Meet you at Seaworld Some time.
Support has been sporadic, but there constantly. I would have to agree that the US focus should be shifting a bit toward the Caribbean.

Quoting clwstmchasr:


I think we will see a track like a Wilma. Don't know if is the potential system we're speaking of now or another one in October. I very much believe that 2 storms are going to threaten the area from FL to Miss.
Quoting Goldenblack:
Support has been sporadic, but there constantly. I would have to agree that the US focus should be shifting a bit toward the Caribbean.



With all that Heat in the Carribean, If something forms .. we can easily have a CAT 3.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Thanks ORCA! Ill Meet you at Seaworld Some time.


I may be tame...but I am not that tame :)
2461. angiest
Quoting Goldenblack:
Jeff I was looking at the models this morning. I see the CMC (constantly making cyclones) and the NoGAPs are hinting at a Carribean storm to influence Florida from the west, but are you taking about a system coming from the Bahamas? Which models?



6Z GFS shows a storm forming in the Caribbean, moving north through the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and making landfall near the GA/SC border.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I may be tame...but I am not that tame :)



Lol.
Quoting whepton3:


You got it...

everyone is talking like the game is about to change in the western atlantic... are these two storms setting up along 15N the beginning?
Thats what I am seeing but it looks like the GFS is either the outlier or all the other models are seeing something that the GFS isnt...
2464. pottery
Looking at the loops of the 2 areas around the Carib. Islands...
The one east (between 50-60W) is gaining some convection now, and the other one at around 70W is losing some.
Not surprising, when you look at the WV loops, and upper level winds.

The 50-60 one is still trapped in the ITCZ, and is trending west or even a little south of that, while 70W is feeling the pull north toward PR and the DomRep courtesy of Igor.
NEW BLOG
2466. mbjjm
AAXX 20124 78016 11432 82437 10245 20228 39942 49946 52094 60031 76162 887// 333 10271 20231 70734 90926

Past 24 hrs ending 7am Bermuda airport reporting 73.4mm.....2.89inches

Igor was not so big on rainfall . 2.9inches is a relatively small amount of rainfall for a hurricane. They can have this amount with cold front or trough.
2467. MahFL
"10:20am MONDAY: 28,700 of us without power this morning but we're all still here and in good shape. Police are assessing the roads and are asking people to stay off them until they've been cleared of debris. The Causeway is still closed and will be assessed for any damage before reopening."
I sure hope we don't see a Wilma path... 110 mph winds at my house. Had to get a new roof!
2469. LeMoyne
Quoting Orcasystems:re: Update @ 2454




The zoo of models (lol -like that) starts on the west side of the storm - Lisa landed after disaster, stabilized and showed center off and on today NW of 31W 15N and shows eye now at



30.5W 16.5N @645 - 0715
Initial direction N - movement in response to moisture flow under and from all around to over and back to storm - can see flow is arriving on NW quad by constant firing there - also movement is from growing and turning main axis NW/SE.

N side of eye all visible with edge outflow drifting SE - shows 1/4 to 1/3 degree eye
Eye has apparent diameter of some few miles ...

30.3W 16.5N @745 Clear eye means solid outflow



CIMSS says water is 28 seems to be working so far (not cool).

also Lisa's ADT >3.5 - I say definitely 4 : has gron and was funky/max ADT for 4 hours before 345 measurement both measurements have constraint of 0.2 per hour increase as if new storm - Lisa is 48 hours old (rough but challenging = opportunity filled hours). Lisa Phoenix luckily fit right back into kink of ideal WSW-ENE flow boundary tho she worked for it too - (now has wide LL conv UL div) Connected with LL convergent flow established yesterday (continuing nicely now) while forming absolutely classic storm shape. This storm is established and ready to grow. - lol - 94 L IS A grower.

Model may easily go wrong from incorrect IC for position, energy/power and momentum.

I guess Lisa to maybe back and circle some more in response to local flow, nudge from front to S and growth.
From dimples even more sure that Lisa will back E and cirle S a bit as N Arm flexes N

Then she'll smoothly power W or crawl down the dry line WSW (tilted axis) as a major at or below 17 N ...

We will see ... lol - this has been your nightly disaster cast.
2470. LeMoyne
Can see both eye and this verrry interesting scratch across the hurricane on wide view and Rainbow (prolly all views) ...



My take on the scratch is two opposing vortices dropped into the eye (with slight expansion of eye) opposing balance/conserve angular momentum. I take that as another sign of growth.

EDIT:
del-I'm betting growth and E/ESE ...del
EDIT BELOW:

Missed the stupendous growth phase while writing.

Mark of Thor @ 745



Probably sounded like it to the Cap Verdeans

Keeps getting bigger but looks to be trying to close off the eye (can see curve)

@ 1015 UTC (5am EDT?)



Spoking and center clearly at or near 16.5N 30.5 W where she started the day.

For the sake of the Cap Verdeans I hope Lisa settles into a nice quiet annular hurricane and starts West.

Now I think may back up a little more then go WSW - along the flow lines...