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A weakened Gustav still presents a grave danger to New Orleans

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:18 PM GMT on August 31, 2008

Gustav roared over Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds last night, but Cuba exacted a heavy toll on the storm. Gustav weakened to a Category 3 storm after passage over the island, and is still weakening, according to the latest Hurricane Hunter reports. At 9:48 am EDT, the Hurricane Hunters reported a pressure of 962 mb, up 2 mb from their previous pass through the eye at 7 am. Surface and flight level winds measured by the Hurricane Hunters suggest that Gustav may only be at Category 2 strength. Top winds seen by the plane's SFMR instrument so far this morning have been about 105 mph. The top flight level winds of 103 knots at the flight altitude of 10,000 feet also support a surface wind of 105 mph. NHC has elected to keep Gustav at Category 3 120 mph strength with their 11 am advisory, probably because the satellite appearance still supports a Cat 3. The boundary between Category 2 and Category 3 is at 115 mph.

Visible satellite loops show a ragged and lopsided looking hurricane. Upper level winds from the south are creating 10-15 knots of shear over Gustav, and restricting the upper-level outflow on the south side. The 28-mile wide eye is not very distinct, and the Hurricane Hunters reported that the eyewall was missing a chunk on the south side. Long range radar from Key West also shows the missing southern portion of the eyewall.

The latest track forecast
The latest 00Z (8 pm EDT) model runs have united around a strike in central or southeast Louisiana late Monday morning or early afternoon. The GFDL model, which has all along insisted that Gustav would arrive at the coast a day earlier than the other models, has proven to be correct. We should not be surprised if the center comes ashore as far east as New Orleans, or as far west as western Louisiana, given the current spread in the model tracks. Once Gustav makes landfall, it will slow down, and pose a significant rainfall/flooding threat to Louisiana and Texas. Portions of this region are under moderate to severe drought, so the flooding could've been worse. None of the models are currently forecasting that Gustav will drift southwestward back over the Gulf of Mexico after landfall.

The intensity forecast for Gustav
Wind shear has remained in the moderate range (10-15 knots) the past day, and is forecast to increase to marginal late tonight (15-20 knots). Moderate to marginal shear will still allow Gustav to intensify. Gustav is moving further away from the upper-level anticyclone that helped it intensify as it approached Cuba. Overall, the upper level wind environment is favorable for intensification, but not as favorable as during yesterday's rapid intensification. Gustav is currently over the Loop Current, containing the highest heat content waters of the Atlantic (Figure 1). Both the GFDL and HWRF models forecast that these high heat content waters should result in a 15-20 mph increase in Gustav's winds today. By this evening, Gustav will be passing over a cold eddy. The heat content of the Gulf will decrease as Gustav approaches the coast. As seen in a simulation done yesterday using the GFDL model (Figure 2), the relatively shallow depth of warm water near the coast will allow Gustav to upwell large amounts of cold water from the depths. This will chill the surface waters down by up to 5°C (9°F), which should weaken Gustav's winds by about 15 mph. This cooling effect does not occur for Gustav's path over the southern Gulf of Mexico, due to the great depth of warm waters there. Both the GFDL and HWRF models respond to the lower heat content waters near Louisiana by weakening Gustav to a Category 3 hurricane with 115-120 mph winds at landfall. These models are the only ones that incorporate detailed depictions of the thermal structure of the Gulf of Mexico into their runs.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, in kJ/cm^2) for August 28, 2008. Values of TCHP greater than 80 are commonly associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. The forecast points from the NHC 5 am Saturday forecast are overlaid. Gustav is currently crossing over a portion of the Loop Current with extremely high value of TCHP of 120. However, Gustav will then cross over a cold eddy, and will miss crossing the warm Loop Current eddy that broke off in July. Note that this forecast is old, and the newer forecasts bring Gustav much closer to New Orleans. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.


Figure 2. Forecast track and sea surface temperature response to the passage of Gustav, as simulated by the GFDL model at 8 am EDT Saturday 8/30/08. Passage of Gustav over the relatively shallow depth of warm water near the coast will allow Gustav to upwell large amounts of cold water from the depths. This will chill the surface waters down by up to 5°C (9°F). Note that this forecast is old, and the newer forecasts bring Gustav much closer to New Orleans. Image credit: Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island.

Gustav's storm surge may breach the New Orleans levees
NHC's current storm surge forecast calls for a storm surge of 12-16 feet to the right of where the center of Gustav comes ashore. The latest computer generated storm surge map shows that highest surge will be along the levee system along the east side of New Orleans. Storm surge levels of this magnitude are characteristic of a Category 3 to 4 hurricane. The levee system of New Orleans is designed to withstand a storm surge characteristic of a Category 3 storm. If the NHC storm surge forecast verifies, there is a significant threat of multiple levee failures in the New Orleans levee system resulting in flooding of portions of the city. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) model runs have shifted their landfall points a bit further west, slightly reducing the odds of a Category 4 storm surge in New Orleans. My best guess is that New Orleans will suffer a Category 3-level storm surge. Let's hope that the Army Corps of Engineers' assertion that the levee system can withstand a Category 3-level storm surge is correct.

Comparing Gustav to "Billion-Dollar Betsy"
Gustav's track and expected intensity at landfall are similar to those of Hurricane Betsy of 1965. Betsy was a strong Category 4 hurricane as it crossed the Gulf of Mexico, which then weakened to a Category 3 at landfall, right where Gustav is predicted to make landfall (Figure 3). Betsy brought a storm surge of up to 15 feet to Louisiana (Figure 4). According to wikipedia, levees for the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet along Florida Avenue in the Lower Ninth Ward and on both sides of the Industrial Canal failed. The flood waters reached the eaves of houses in some places and over some one story roofs in the Lower Ninth Ward. These levee breaches flooded parts of Gentilly, the Upper Ninth Ward, and the Lower Ninth Ward of New Orleans as well as Arabi and Chalmette in neighboring St. Bernard Parish. Seventy-six people died in Louisiana, and "Billion-Dollar Betsy" became the first billion-dollar hurricane ($10 billion in 2008 dollars). As a result of the hurricane, the Army Corps of Engineers was tasked with the job of upgrading the New Orleans levee system to withstand a future hurricane of Besty's strength--but no stronger.


Figure 3. Track of Hurricane Betsy of 1965.


Figure 4. Simulated maximum storm surge from Hurricane Betsy of 1965, as modeled using the ADCIRC model. Image credit: ADCIRC Development Group.

Links to follow:
Key West radar
New Orleans weather

I'll have a new blog entry later today that will provide an update on Gustav. I'll also cover Hanna, which may hit the U.S. East Coast late this week.

Some prayers this morning for New Orleans would be in order!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I looked for surge animations and found the following things -
sorry if this is re-posting stuff


WeatherUnderground

Dr. Masters mentions this Hurricane Betsy video, an impressive record of what happened to New Orleans in 1965:
http://www.nd.edu/~adcirc/betsy.htm

Weather Underground also has its Surge Forecast page at:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_surge.html


NASA

NASA movie (.mov) simulating the effect of surge flooding on New Orleans (up to +9 meters)
based on Space Shuttle radar topography


http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA04175 (careful, the movie is a 5.9 MB .mov file)

Image showing digital elevations for the area around New Orleans (initial frame of movie):

higher-res jpeg: http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/jpeg/PIA04175.jpg


Various Maps of Impact of Sea Level Increase


This page offers versions of this image (of digital elevations in Louisiana) at different resolutions:
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Louisiana_Sea_Level_Risks_png



GlobalWarmingArt's browsable/google maps version, different resolutions:

view around New Orleans: http://www.globalwarmingart.com/sealevel?lat=30&lng=-90&zoom=9
view around S. Lousiana: http://www.globalwarmingart.com/sealevel?lat=30&lng=-90&zoom=8


Firetree's interactive exploration of the effects of sea-level increase:

view around New Orleans with 5 meter rise: http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=30,-90&z=8&m=5
view around S. Louisiana with 7 meter rise: http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=30,-90&z=9&m=7


U. Arizona DGESL's animation showing areas of Louisiana that become covered by increases
in sea level up to +6 meters, based on USGS digital elevation maps

(explanation at http://tinyurl.com/ca73h):

http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/climate_change_and_sea_level/sea_level_rise/louisia na/slr_usala_a_s.htm

final image, showing the effect of a +6 meter increase in sea level:
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/Assets/research_maps/sea_level_rise/louisiana/sm/la_6meter_sm.gif


Hey guys. I just got back from Howard Park Beach and the water level is VERY high there. Probably 5-6 feet above where it usually is.
1488...absolutely incorrect...
1504. HookSet
Quoting aubiesgirl:
why the descrepancy?


Not sure. However, IMO every degree right now can make a huge difference on projected landfall.
Afternoon all

What an interesting storm. Intensifies to 145mph in hours while having mountains not to far away to the N, and then gets in the Gulf and looks very rough. Hope this trend continues, but I agree with the NHC, that GUS could still regroup...
1508. Hhunter
correct forward speed does impact surge..
Quoting IvansEx:


Seriously, please people, if you are GUESSING or whatever based on your own OPINIONS, PLEASE just let the readers know this.

Although no one should, some people actually use this blog to make their plans. Good, bad or indifferent, when they read (this late in the game) that people "evacuated for nothing", it is actually possible that your statement may (overly-) influence people who seriously need to GO.

I left Pensacola for Dennis...as it turns out, he whipped through here so quickly it was basically a non-event. But I had been through Ivan, and I had to make that call based on information from many sources. Whether it should be or not, THIS BLOG is a source of "information."

(...sorry, I went tropical on ya!)

Should we maybe put "???" at the beginning of posts that are opinions??



OK, seriously now - is there really anybody reading this blog who believes that anything stated here is anything other than an opinion?

Other than the obvious such as reports of actual conditions, etc.... All forecasting is a matter of opinion. Some are more well-informed than others, but they are all opinion.

Maybe the readers should be given a bit of credit for intelligence and common sense.
Ascension Parish now has a 10pm curfew until tuesday morning!
1511. brmuse
Those of us in the line of fire (I'm in Baton Rouge) are most impressed. My Question is this: several days ago, a post stated that major hurricanes tend to jog to the right at first contact with land. Any truth to that assertion?
Quoting Drakoen:


It unprofessional and unnecessary. He didn't have to come off that way.
Nagin was the one who was there while hundreds of people drowned. I'm pretty sure he doesn't even want a CHANCE of that happening again. I can understand him being a bit hyperbolic at this point.
look for the eye to come back in the next 6 hrs. I cant believe everybody. The speed at which the storm is moving it doesnt have time to upwell the cold water, the surface water is warm all the way to the coast.
Quoting presslord:
1488...absolutely incorrect...
So ur telling me that if a storm is moving at 17mph the wind on the ground will blow 17mph faster than what is measured?
I am in Jax (left MS/LA border Friday) and winds are gusting to about 25mph lol. He is spreading his influence. There will be a LARGE area of TS force winds and tornados East of landfal
12z UKMET has a landfall in extreme south florida.Model wont budge
Quoting StormJunkie:


any of those great java 3-D radar loops nearby?
1519. franck
overwash..you have a point, and the system is trending west as well. Last few water vapor frames show increased ventilation.
I'm taking a break. I'll look in again around 5 p. m. ET to see the latest.

I really hope things continue to go well with evacuations, especially since it seems quite possible Gustav will be at Cat 3 at landfall.
1521. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:
12z UKMET has a landfall in extreme south florida.Model wont budge


It'll probably end up being wrong like it has been.
Vero1 that is an extremely interesting storm surge graphic--where did you get it?
Hi SJ...yes, it just goes to show us that intensity is the hardest thing to predict, as the NHC constantly reminds us.
Track-wise however, the NHC track has been remarkable.....so-far....from before the time the storm hit Hispaniola, through the time that it appeared it may dissipate, the time it relocated, all the way till now....that NHC track has verified.
1525. BigTuna
Quoting brmuse:
Those of us in the line of fire (I'm in Baton Rouge) are most impressed. My Question is this: several days ago, a post stated that major hurricanes tend to jog to the right at first contact with land. Any truth to that assertion?


Someone earlier mentioned it was due to friction, which seems reasonable. It's kind of like a spinning top hitting an obstacle.. it will deflect to the right when spinning CCW.
Quoting hurricane23:
12z UKMET has a landfall in extreme south florida.Model wont budge


For which storm?
hip report north of center has 69mph winds and 46 (forty six) foot waves!
The weather channel just stated that ships report waves heights in excess of 46 feet!

Can that be accurate?
1529. Hhunter


not weaking but consolidating under convection..i think a 10-20mb drop before ashore and cat 4 wind is possible
Every major cable news is running the headline "Gustav is weakening".....hmmmm.....
1531. Hhunter
yep 46-50ft sounds right..
I don't know about the rest of you, but I wouldn't need anyone to tell me to leave if a hurricane was coming and I lived below sea level.
Can i expect to lose power in Pcola? Please dont give me an its possible answer, yes or no
1535. Drakoen
Gustav at peak intensity yesterday. Shell of its former self now:
46 foot waves...Link
Hi,
Just checking in. I saw on our local Pensacola station that portions of Mobile and Baldwin Counties in Alabama are under MANDATORY evacuation. The whole state of AL has declared a state of emergency. I am on the state line in FL, this makes me a little nervous. I am assuming they are trying to get people away from the coastal areas like Dauphin island etc due to the surge. I am concerned to go 10 miles N of here because classicly that has been our tornado zone with storms. Any thoughts?
Quoting hurricane23:
12z UKMET has a landfall in extreme south florida.Model wont budge


Do you have a LINK for that model?
TIA
IMO if the track for Grand Isle,LA holds up and this storm maintains is current strength w/o getting stronger, its still a worse case scenario for NOLA than Katrina. Remember, a west of NOLA strike this close will bring much more storm surge than an E of NOLA strike like Katrina did. Also, with a W of NOLA strike say Grand Isle, you have more than one source for storm surge. The lake and the GOM.Not trying to panic anyone but if you are in NO be more than just concerned, take action.
I'm wondering what everyone thinks about this from the 11:00 a.m. Discussion of Gustavo: "After 48-72 hr...there is major disagreement between the dynamical models on whether Gustav will recurve into the westerlies...stall over Louisiana or Texas...or turn southwestward. Since this kind of spread frequently precedes slow motion...the forecast track will call for a slow westward motion after 72 hr."

And looking at the computer models, NGFDL has Gustav making landfall right over Houston while some others have it bending back this way after landfall. Do you think we could be in for some serious rain and wind here in southeast Texas?

Other than some people buying food and water, it sure doesn't seem like anyone in Houston is taking this seriously.
is gustav still likely to hit the united steates as a majoor?
Every major cable news is running the headline "Gustav is weakening".....hmmmm.....

Exactly why the NHC is careful with intensity. I can tell you from experience that even a weak cat 2 storm is no fun at all.
LLC has caught up to the CDO.
Link
I'm saying it can effect surge....
1546. franck
Hhunter..hate to say it looks like you may be right.
Quoting Andrewwasfun:
Can i expect to lose power in Pcola? Please dont give me an its possible answer, yes or no


You can expect it, but it might not happen.
1548. Melagoo
looks like an eye is starting to be more clear again ...

Link
Quoting Andrewwasfun:
Can i expect to lose power in Pcola? Please dont give me an its possible answer, yes or no


no one can answer in absolutes., please dont tell me to answer your question with acceptable values that do not include the correct value
Quoting IvansEx:


And I'm starting to think that statements such as yours are uttered for nothing...nothing good.

Seriously, please people, if you are GUESSING or whatever based on your own OPINIONS, PLEASE just let the readers know this.

Although no one should, some people actually use this blog to make their plans. Good, bad or indifferent, when they read (this late in the game) that people "evacuated for nothing", it is actually possible that your statement may (overly-) influence people who seriously need to GO.

I left Pensacola for Dennis...as it turns out, he whipped through here so quickly it was basically a non-event. But I had been through Ivan, and I had to make that call based on information from many sources. Whether it should be or not, THIS BLOG is a source of "information."

(...sorry, I went tropical on ya!)

Should we maybe put "???" at the beginning of posts that are opinions??

Its called a blog for a reason. Everything on here is basically opinion. Read for a while, evaluate who actually knows what they are talking about, and then put everybody else on ignore.(including me)If you want definitive statements read about last years storms.
bluewater...it's entirely possible...Katrina threw off waves twice that high...as did Mitch....
Quoting intunewindchime:
Hi,
Just checking in. I saw on our local Pensacola station that portions of Mobile and Baldwin Counties in Alabama are under MANDATORY evacuation. The whole state of AL has declared a state of emergency. I am on the state line in FL, this makes me a little nervous. I am assuming they are trying to get people away from the coastal areas like Dauphin island etc due to the surge. I am concerned to go 10 miles N of here because classicly that has been our tornado zone with storms. Any thoughts?
I live of blue angel in pcola Im with you on this.. Sent family north yesterday I will be staying, military so I cant leave.
yes plan to lose power in pensacola, not for days, but hours, maybe overnight
1559. Vero1
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Vero1 that is an extremely interesting storm surge graphic--where did you get it?


I bookmarked it from and earlier post: ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/g28_msb.gif

Quoting bingcrosby:
Every major cable news is running the headline "Gustav is weakening".....hmmmm.....


Not seeing that, Saw CNN and Fox news that they all say CAT 4 hitting Louisiana.
1563. bwi
I'm hopeful that Gustav's relatively weaker east side means weaker northerly winds
and less wind-pushed surge east of landfall.

Drak -- do you have an analysis of the asymmetry, with consistently
strong looking west side and weak east? Dry air entraining all the way around
from the western gulf? Upper level winds?
I don't see any evidence for intensification like that. Could happen, and the southerly shear restricting outflow is a little less than last night. I see Cat 2 at landfall as almost as likely as Cat 3 at this point.
Fox News weather chick just said Gustav still could make landfall anywhere from Texas to the FL panhandle? WTF? Why do they try to freak people out like that? A few minutes before that, they had a scroll saying that Gustov expected to strengthen to a CAT 5 before landfall??? Cmon FOX News - I'm calling you out for irresponsible journalism.
I am thinking of going to a friends up by saufley field. I live by big lagoon, n of the gulf beach hwy. Ivan did not bring surge to us, but wind was horrible. The trees are still mangled.
Quoting intunewindchime:
yes plan to lose power in pensacola, not for days, but hours, maybe overnight
Thank you very much I was thinking the same just needed to hear it from another person,, gone to buy Generator..... back later
Quoting bluewaterblues:
The weather channel just stated that ships report waves heights in excess of 46 feet!

Can that be accurate?



Ocean Buoys are showing 34 foot close to the eye Link

BTW: IS this showing real time info OR from latest advisories?
i live on a rural town in louisiana how strong can i expect gusav to be hen he makes landfall

sdc, do not jump on taz. He is a very good blogger and forecaster. All he is asking is can anyone forecast what the gas prices will be once Gus is over and done with. Remember all the oil rigs that are affected as well as the Refineries that are along the Gulf coast.
Quoting Andrewwasfun:
Can i expect to lose power in Pcola? Please dont give me an its possible answer, yes or no


I believe the common sense approach is to expect the worst and hope for the best.

Your question is impossible for anyone to answer with any degree of certainty. Anyone who does give a "definitive answer" is lying to both you and themselves.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I don't see any evidence for intensification like that. Could happen, and the southerly shear restricting outflow is a little less than last night. I see Cat 2 at landfall as almost as likely as Cat 3 at this point.


Yea I agree ... and Nagin is running around telling everyone it is the "storm of the century". I think Nagin is one of the most stupid sub-humans to ever occupy this planet.
Quoting gwhite713:
IMO if the track for Grand Isle,LA holds up and this storm maintains is current strength w/o getting stronger, its still a worse case scenario for NOLA than Katrina. Remember, a west of NOLA strike this close will bring much more storm surge than an E of NOLA strike like Katrina did. Also, with a W of NOLA strike say Grand Isle, you have more than one source for storm surge. The lake and the GOM.Not trying to panic anyone but if you are in NO be more than just concerned, take action.


So could the flooding on the Eastbank from the lake and GOM be as bad or worse than the flooding on the Westbank coming up from the Harvey Canal, Barataria Bay and Bayou Perot??
I know the focus is on Gustav; however for those in the Bahamas and Florida, whats the outlook on Hanna. I know that she has weakened some, where is her center located under all that "stuff" and where is she headed. best guesses are appreciated.
Hello everyone! I've been too busy to get back into the usual free-fire zone on the blog. But I haven't been too busy to pray for anyone in the path of these storms. We are always able to plot the track of the storm after it has passed through and affected all the lives it touches. Before it gets there, we need to pray for the ones it will touch. I've been lurking for a long while, starting with a 650,000 acre fire in SE Ga. last summer, and a bunch of other incidents, but I haven't forgotten the gang on the blog. I hope everyone is doing OK.
Chuck
1581. Hhunter
hope your in a rurual town north of new orleans..otherwise put on a life jacket...
Seems as if Hanna is already heading WSW ahead of when forecasted anyone else seeing this?
Quoting sdcbassman:


Can ANYONE translate this??????????


I can!
It says, I live in Alaska. When will Gustav get here?
Will my lights go out? Will my basement flood?
Will the roof hold up?
When will my cellphone work again?
How many batteries does my flashlight take?
Can you give me the numbers for tonight's lottery?
1584. IKE
At the rate Gustav is moving, unless he slows down, he'll make landfall before sun-up on Labor day.
1585. djti
Quoting system345:
is gustav still likely to hit the united steates as a majoor?


"officially" yes. in actuality i think its about 50-50.
1586. bwi
Quoting Tazmanian:
would any one have to no how high gas would go when are hurricane gets done and overe with ??



Can ANYONE translate this??????????


IMO Taz has the one of sharpest eyes for storms on WU!

He's asking how high gas prices will go after Gustav...
Every major cable news is running the headline "Gustav is weakening".....hmmmm.....
Action: Quote | Ignore User

Thats funny CNN is calling for a possible heavy cat 4 on there alert screen
oil prices up $2. basically gustav is a non event to the oil markets. congrats guys we survived.
Hindsight is always 20/20, we bloggers have the latest imagery, model runs, pressure readings etc. constantly available. Grandma sitting 10 feet below sea level might be lucky to have a good TV running while the grandkids play at her feet. That being said, the call to evacuate NO had to occur. 24 hours ago we were staring at a rapidly intensifying cat 4 Hurricane with a high probability of landfall near the most vulnerable city in the U.S. Forecasters were not ruling out cat5 status in the GOM. How do you get people to evacuate a city? You scare them of course ... does anyone know a better way? Scratches head ...
1592. LSU9501
Can someone tell me with all the computer models shifting west, and gus apears to be going more west, what hell all this means?
Quoting Nolehead:
guys i'm no expert but i've always heard when a storm gets so strong that it poles northward..is this accurate?

Hey Nole! Just popping on...is Gus coming in quicker than previously forecasted?
Quoting bluewaterblues:
The weather channel just stated that ships report waves heights in excess of 46 feet!

Can that be accurate?


Yep. A NDBC engineer I talked to last year said anything up 50 feet is automatically considered valid. That is the length of the tether on the deep water moored buoys.
I would actually say the latest radar loop shows better symmetry, a rebuilding CDO, & just about to form a new small eye. The shearing from the SW did some work on this thing, but might be lessening a bit. Gustav might be about to kick up a gear again. Also, with this much forward speed, the colder water deeper in the gulf won't get as much a chance to weaken it, right? I'm still seeing a CAT 3, possibly 4 at landfall tomorrow. Not RIP by a long shot.
Hanna was supposed to try to get away from the ULL and maybe the move to the wsw is just that. Unless she is trying to relocate her coc
Quoting system345:
is gustav still likely to hit the united steates as a majoor?

YES
1602. Drakoen
Quoting bwi:
I'm hopeful that Gustav's relatively weaker east side means weaker northerly winds
and less wind-pushed surge east of landfall.

Drak -- do you have an analysis of the asymmetry, with consistently
strong looking west side and weak east? Dry air entraining all the way around
from the western gulf? Upper level winds?


If you look at the water vapor imagery there's probably some dry air trying to filter in from the west. You can see how the dry air arcs around the system. Something has to be pulling on the dry air for it to be doing so. Wind shear products show that the system is under 20 knots of wind shear from the south.
Quoting 4Gaia:


I agree. Lets make everyone evacuate at gunpoint.


True story from my Grandmother who is Head of the Northern Neck Red Cross in Virginia...

During Connie in 1955 she was told to go to these low lying areas of the county and tell people to evacuate... When people refused she made them write their social security number on their arm and their next of kin's phone number in permanent black marker... and told them that it was for "identifying" their bodies... She said 90% of the people she had to do that left after she told them what it was for..
Quoting setfree7:

YES
LOL English good I speak
Quoting LSU9501:
Can someone tell me with all the computer models shifting west, and gus apears to be going more west, what hell all this means?

it is not moving more west.so it means nothing.
1610. RAM48
Mr Master, Mr Storm, you guys have done a great job with Gus, but please lets report on Hanna. I live in Miami and would like to get some orientation of what we can expect. Do we need to start taking some type of action and if we do when? I respect your positions and I count on you guys to help us in the Miami area, after all the idea is to prevent loss of live.I know you guys are doing the best job possible and I congratulate both of you.So please do not read me wrong I am worry about my family.Thanks
Gustav may strengthen a little. The water is plenty warm enough to support Cat 3 even in the shallow northern Gulf. The shear could weaken after all. But---if the landfalling pressure is under 28.00" I'll be quite surprised.
1612. Daveg
Latest tracks...GFDL now shifted west and south a bit. As he slows down later today (if he does) as forecast, will be interesting to see if he starts to follow the new models...since he been fond of the GFDL so far.

press, relax. hit the ! and go about your business. attacks on bloggers are not tolerated by the admin, not worth getting yourself banned.
West, it could be. A good rule of thumb is, if you are downwind of strong winds and there is nothing but a body of water between you and the strongs winds, be someplace else, always assume that with higher winds like this and waters, best to be farthest away possible, i.e.not be there or higher ground. With the expected surge, water will be pushed MILES inland.
RAM it is too early to make definitive predictions about Hanna. She is weak, and will be under a lot of shear for 3 days. The UKMET keeps her south, and all other guidance turns her to the NW and threatens N FL to Carolinas.
Significant ntensification may be possible after 3 days.
1619. LLHi
OK, I REALLY need to know if Gus is going to turn west and head for Houston, because I told friends there they could come here if it looked that way......and in looking around I'd say I have a weeks worth of cleaning to do...that I'd rather avoid doing because I'd rather read your posts here!!!..

: )
Quoting Andrewwasfun:
Thank you very much I was thinking the same just needed to hear it from another person,, gone to buy Generator..... back later
hey unless it is coming to P cola, I would not worry as they get the power back on quickly once the storm is gone. I dont know who has any generators left except I did see some at the walmart on mobile hwy, located in the front of the store middle of the chckouts
Humm... 12Z UKM still shows Hanna going through SE FL. Wonder why its not caught on with the other models.. It still seems to believe the high will be in place.
1622. storm7
I think the chances of Gustav makig landfall as a major hurricane are below 50% now.
1622. storm7 6:42 PM GMT on August 31, 2008
"I think the chances of Gustav makig landfall as a major hurricane are below 50% now."

IMO its a 100% chance. You have a intensifying cat 3 major hurricane heading toward Grand Isle where flooding will be a massive issue for NO and surrounding area. It dosent have to be any catagory strength when flooding and storm surge are a major cause for the possiblity of loss of life and property.

1627. 7544
ukm and all the models are showing hanna as strong hurricane what are they seeing that we are not

Link
can someone please explain why texas is still such a big concern? thanks appreciate it. cause i just dont see it.
1629. DFW2008
Quoting JupiterFL:

Let me tell you that one thing you don't do here is attack Taz.


Or anyone, for that matter, but Taz is one of the venerable "Old Ones"
after reading all the serious stuff here, your answer made me laugh! Thanks, it was a good one.
Quoting Hhunter:
hope your in a rurual town north of new orleans..otherwise put on a life jacket...
Sorry if this is a repost Question: on the last frame or so of this loop is that an eye poking out? <-----total novice
hoot.metr.ou.edu/satellite/GOES-12/Carib/IR
1632. storm7
In Katrina the storm surge had not time to be really affected by the rapid weaking of the storm before coming ashore, Gustav's storm surge have already had plenty of time to weaken.
Looking much more impressive than this morning. I think a 135mph landfall is not out of the question.

Given that Hanna really hasn't had much good information into the models - I question the models.

Gotta love it - got a call from miami - said don't worry about Hanna 2:00 advisory said its definitely going north lol
.....blog hole
like i asked
models are all pointing toward the carolinas
is the wsw movement rite now a good or bad thing for south floridians
Remember though, Katrina came ashore E of NOLA.It wasnt so much that surge was running over the tops of levees but levee weakening and failures of their structures that brought them down. Gustov has a better chance at topping them that Katrina did. Therefore a greater concern for surge and flooding.
1639. storm7
Maybe if it starts strenghtening, but the best opportunity for this has already passed.
Quoting 4Gaia:
I do not see the storm making any drastic changes prior to landfall. The only question is how strong will he be when he gets there.

***The aforementioned is a wildassed guess and should be interpreted as same.***


LOL! Thanks for the forecast!
Quoting storm7:
In Katrina the storm surge had not time to be really affected by the rapid weaking of the storm before coming ashore, Gustav's storm surge have already had plenty of time to weaken.


you need to read up on the terms Fetch, fully risen sea, wind wave and swell propagation for starters
If the pressure is dropping does that not mean that the storm is starting to refire? 962 MB at 11:00 960MB at 2:00 ? I woull be careful to underestimate this storm
1645. Vero1
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Vero1 that is an extremely interesting storm surge graphic--where did you get it?


I found the Link for the surge graphic. If you go on the NHC Hurricane site it is the graphic "Storm Surge Probability". (Under the 3 day cone)
1646. IKE
Quoting gwhite713:
Remember though, Katrina came ashore E of NOLA.It wasnt so much that surge was running over the tops of levees but levee weakening and failures of their structures that brought them down. Gustov has a better chance at topping them that Katrina did. Therefore a greater concern for surge and flooding.


Well...it's fixing to get it's chance. This storm is moving on in, maybe faster than the 17 mph the NHC stated in the advisory.
Some interesting findings upon Hanna's recon mission.
SavannahStorm best comment of the year! FTW!
I think I fell into the blog hole...

is the high starting to affect Gus? the high clouds are stopping at the AL?TN border while on the west side the clouds continue to pour into the AR/LA/TX region.

Is enough to make any real change in the track and is this why the models are treanding a little more west...
Quoting gwhite713:
Remember though, Katrina came ashore E of NOLA.It wasnt so much that surge was running over the tops of levees but levee weakening and failures of their structures that brought them down. Gustov has a better chance at topping them that Katrina did. Therefore a greater concern for surge and flooding.


True, but we should trust that most of the levees are now in better condition than before. Greater awareness should pay off.

Many people (not you!) have already been wiping NOLA out before the storm even makes landfall. But what happens if the Corps' efforts work and, with the exception of those areas that have not been fixed yet, NOLA stays 'relatively' dry???
Given that Gustav stays at or near its current level of intensity, size, and direction of attack, could some of you with more experience then I, wager an estimate as to the storm surge height that will probably hit the NOLA area and given that the surge moves from southeast to northwest, what areas of NOLA are most vulnerable to levee failure and flooding?

Thank you. And I agree with Drakoen that embellishment of the threat from Gustav with superlatives like "Storm of the Century" is excessive and does not serve the public good. Comparisons to Katrina and Betsy in terms of what kinds of problems they caused are probably warranted; and he has the expertise around him to tap into that can provide him with the necesssary data to make intelligent statements - which is not what he did yesterday.

One last thing. The air mass over North Texas is so thick with moisture you can cut it with a dull knife......that will sure be an aid to local flooding from Gustav when it rolls in this area on Tuesday or Wednesday.
1658. drdoug
IS it just my wishful thinking (I live near Hattiesburg, MS), or is there some slight weakening that has continued since Cuba?
It seems as if Hanna might actually be follong the UKM model with her early southward movement or i may be wrong
Ike, I totally agree, add the fast motion of this and its current intensity, we might not have a jog due north like alot of storms. A direct landfall at Grand Isle where topogrpahy is barely above sea level, could mean minimal weakening and strong surge. Getting a gut feeling the farther and faster Gus moves north, the less the shear seems to be affecting it??
Quoting billy305:
.....blog hole
like i asked
models are all pointing toward the carolinas
is the wsw movement rite now a good or bad thing for south floridians

I would say that the farther west she gets before making the forecasted north turn, the better likelihood we catch a piece of her in south FL. And that is just my opinion, do not use for life and death decisions, lol.
Quoting hurricane23:
Some interesting findings upon Hanna's recon mission.


...and what are they?
I seriously hope that the amount of oil spilled by Gustav is nothing like what Katrina caused.

bad news
1665. 7544
Quoting Crisis57:
It seems as if Hanna might actually be follong the UKM model with her early southward movement or i may be wrong

yes i agree lets see how far south she goes before tuning n or nw again may the further south she gus cant control her and thats why all the modeles are showing her as astron hurricane and not letting up that
1666. storm7
I can barely imagine what could have happened to NOLA if Katrina came W of the town, now the storm surge will be less, but the storm is expected to hit W, there is a "good" and a "bad" side on this, which one will prevail i don't know.
True, but we should trust that most of the levees are now in better condition than before.

Maybe, but I think it is more likely that some areas are in better shape, where as others are in worse shape due to the pounding Kat brought. All of that said, I hope Gus weakens below the Nola disaster threshold. Whatever that may be, let's not find out.
Quoting ShesACaneiac:

I would say that the farther west she gets before making the forecasted north turn, the better likelihood we catch a piece of her in south FL. And that is just my opinion, do not use for life and death decisions, lol.
is that ridge thats supposed to catapult her pulling thru?
Does everyone feel pretty confident that the galveston area is out of danger
1670. bwi
1602. Drakoen 6:29 PM GMT on August 31, 2008

If you look at the water vapor imagery there's probably some dry air trying to filter in from the west. You can see how the dry air arcs around the system. Something has to be pulling on the dry air for it to be doing so. Wind shear products show that the system is under 20 knots of wind shear from the south.

Thanks very much! I see the dry air arc, but the shear I don't understand. It almost looks like it's being sheared from NE to SW, with the heaviest weather blown SW of the center all day...

Gulf WV loop.
Even a slow moving Cat 1 in the right spot (not far from NO to the W) is enough to cause massive issues for NOLA. Wow,sounds kinda like what the situation we have now, but only its a cat 3 and moving fast. In short, cats at this point dont means as much as "WHERE", because we are talking about a city ten feet below sea level. Meaning its ten to zippo before the games begun.
1573. WetWedder 6:28 PM GMT on August 31, 2008

Quoting sdcbassman:
Can ANYONE translate this??????????
Because of the spelling and syntax errors, I'd say it was written by a Southern Male Republican, but the guy claims to be a Tazmanian, so no, I can't translate it or explain it.


This northeastern male progressive prefers it if you keep regional and political insults off of this blog. When chosing their targets TS's are non-denominational and non-partisan. So, we like to keep a solid firewall between hurricane season and election season on this blog.
Quoting blueyedhrlyridr:
Does everyone feel pretty confident that the galveston area is out of danger


I wouldn't be losing sleep over it if I lived in Galveston. Still would be watching though.
Quoting blueyedhrlyridr:
Does everyone feel pretty confident that the galveston area is out of danger
unless gus starts heading more wnw and west soon your pretty much in the clearing maybe a couple showers
1676. b4dirt
I think this will help the discussion.
The shaded area is what is helping Texas or west steering. Link
The LSU site is slow - Probably an DNS problem.
Quoting blueyedhrlyridr:
Does everyone feel pretty confident that the galveston area is out of danger
I do.
I think it's a given that Galveston isn't going to be directly impacted.

According to the models, SE Texas is going to be due for several days of torential rain and possible flooding as Gustav stalls out.

Galveston will get to enjoy some outstanding surf, but otherwise you will most likely have a nice week.
Quoting StormJunkie:
True, but we should trust that most of the levees are now in better condition than before.

Maybe, but I think it is more likely that some areas are in better shape, where as others are in worse shape due to the pounding Kat brought. All of that said, I hope Gus weakens below the Nola disaster threshold. Whatever that may be, let's not find out.


Im not really sure they are any better than before. Blog hole.
If there is anyone still needing to go to a shelter...look ....

I hope everyone is out by now....bless yall




Headlines

Wallace College Opened for Evacuees

Viewed: 750 Times

Written By: John S. Keppy
E-mail:jskeppy@hotmail.com
Phone:(334)797-8634
Date:08/31/2008

Per Houston County E.M.A. Director Clark Matthews:
Governor Riley has instructed that Wallace College to be opened for evacuees from hurricane Gustav. Staffing will be in place shortly. Road signs are being put up to guide evacuees to that location.

If you know of any evacuees seeking shelter, please direct them there.
I've been reading everyone's posts about Gustov, and I'm going to speak on what I think is actually going to happen.

Gustov is currently showing signs of weakening. At this point, I doubt Gustov will hit Lousiana as a major hurricane. I'm thinking Cat 2 ~ 100mph. He's going to emerge over a cold eddy, and dry air/shear has been effecting the storm a little bit. Satellite imagery is not impressive. Earlier this morning, it looked like Gustov was trying to re-develop an eye, but in recent images, the eye is very hard to see and detect, espcially on infrared.

The forward motion is something that no one talks about. You have a storm with 115mph winds and moving 17mph, you might expect 132mph wind speeds on the north and east quadrant of the storm as it bears down. The forward speed adds more punch to the storm on the northeast side. New Orleans has to watch out for this. Flooding and storm surge are problematic. With this said, this storm will be strong when it hits, but I doubt we'll see a cat 3 hit LO. (If so, a very weak cat 3, but a weak cat 3 is a strong hurricane regardless)

Hope everyone is making the necessary evacuations.

Matt
it looks like gustav is expanding similiar to how he did after making landfall in haiti, I'm a bit worried once he gets larger, he will really ramp up his intensity. No one should let their guard down just because hes weaker now...
Quoting matt03blueoptima:
ill try this again can anyone explain to me how accurate is the NGFDL model?? thanks in advance


Here is a link Link to the National Hurricane Center General discussion of hurricane models. It is excellent.
My general approach is to look for consensus, and recognize that the further out the prediction, the less accurate it is. Remember that the NHC looks at all of the models, applies their forecasting expertise, and then issues a cone of probability regarding future location of the storm.
Again, read the material available at Link for a clear explanation of hurricane models.
can someone tell me how a storm that is as elongated as Hanna is. can get her act together? Where is the COC on her and where is this ULL?
Hey everyone! New member here from Pearland, Texas (Houston). I have checked this site out for years and finally decided to join. So, hello!
Concerning the levees in New Orleans, please read - http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/frontpage/index.ssf?/base/news-11/1219901815300440.xml&coll=1 from the Times-Picayune. They still have weak spots, hopefully the surge won't test them.
Quoting TexasHoosier:
Given that Gustav stays at or near its current level of intensity, size, and direction of attack, could some of you with more experience then I, wager an estimate as to the storm surge height that will probably hit the NOLA area and given that the surge moves from southeast to northwest, what areas of NOLA are most vulnerable to levee failure and flooding?

Thank you. And I agree with Drakoen that embellishment of the threat from Gustav with superlatives like "Storm of the Century" is excessive and does not serve the public good. Comparisons to Katrina and Betsy in terms of what kinds of problems they caused are probably warranted; and he has the expertise around him to tap into that can provide him with the necesssary data to make intelligent statements - which is not what he did yesterday.

One last thing. The air mass over North Texas is so thick with moisture you can cut it with a dull knife......that will sure be an aid to local flooding from Gustav when it rolls in this area on Tuesday or Wednesday.


The Westbank of Metro New Orleans is most vulnerable to storm surge from Gustav. Katrina went far enough East to not put pressure on these levees. A landfall near Port Fouchon will push water up Barataria Bay and has the potential of causing failure of Westbank levees.

Conversely, areas that had failed levees in Katrina--St.Bernard/Lower Ninth, New Orleans East and the Lakefront of New Orleans should face much less surge than in Katrina.
1691. RobSte
I'm another lurker here, just asking for some informed info. I'm in Mobile - can anyone take a reasonable stab at when the first major bands of Gustav will be moving over our area? There's some thunderstorm activity in Florida moving rapidly west along the most outer band, but the band is very weak. I'm referring to the big band of showers still a couple hundred miles offshore.
1692. sygram
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Im not really sure they are any better than before. Blog hole.


Sorry for the off-topic, what does 'Blog Hole' mean?
Imagine if Gustov was moving as slow as Fay and had it current heading..
the HH this found a 957mb
1695. ATS3
no change , running out of warm water.

1696. txlori
On the latest model runs, GFS and HWRF have it coming back south through southeast texas. The GFS stops just short of the GOM, but the HWRF has it entering back into the NWGOM...how feasible is this?
1697. DFW2008
Wow, incredible blog hole!
Hi everyone I am in raleigh nc does anyone know whether hanna is going to affect us here in NC
Quoting netflixrox:
oil up $3!!! is that a lot????


Considering it is not trading in any world market at this time, yes, that is unusual.
1702. IKE
Top wind by recon so far...83 mph.
1703. IKE
Quoting ATS3:
no change , running out of warm water.



Yup....within 10-12 hours of landfall....
Quoting txlori:
On the latest model runs, GFS and HWRF have it coming back south through southeast texas. The GFS stops just short of the GOM, but the HWRF has it entering back into the NWGOM...how feasible is this?
I dont know if my post got thru earlier. My desktop weather warning thing from nws raised the % of hurricane strength winds in orange county texas from 6- 11 % in the last hour.So it may be feasible.
The levees are gonna hold
Quoting IKE:
Top wind by recon so far...83 mph.


They did not do a SW-NE vortex pass so the highest winds will not be found. Pressure down to 957 from what I saw.
Actually much of NO proper is above sea level. And, since Katrina, the majority of the population of the city itself lives in the above sea level areas - predictably and, probably, tragically.

None of which to say that NO is not especially vulnerable or that Gustav will not cause significant problems.

However, as my "handle" indicates, I have been through, near, around lord knows how many storms since Betsy in 1960. Not one, between Betsy and Katrina (with its Cat 5 surge)caused any notable flooding in the city, except for some due to rain fall. 45 years.

While there is a "Russian Roulette" issue with this to be sure, the city is less vulnerable to "typical" (whatever that means) tropical storms and Cat 1 and Cat 2 hurricanes (at landfall) than is generally believed. Remember when we used to have Cat 1 and Cat 2 hurricanes? Those were the days.
I have a question. Is there something I can buy to read how fast the wind is outside? And if so where can I get one?
1709. IKE
New higher reading...82.7 knots (~ 95.1 mph)
Category One Hurricane
Hello, everyone! (((PRAYERS))) up for those still in and around NOLA...and for the thousands on the road. I left the MS coast this morning and 49 wasn't too bad, but I-59 was bumper-to-bumper. I got off the highway just south of Meridian and most of the stations are already out of gas, etc.

It looks like Gus may be trying to strengthen with the coc trying to become vertical again. I suspect we will see an eyewall reform with some strengthening, but I'm also thinking, hoping that some slight weakening may occur with it crossing a colder eddy. Also, the mid-west flooding dumping cooler waters into the GOM may help as it approaches landfall. However, it also seems to be picking up forward speed. That won't help with surge imo.
1711. MahFL
Looks to me like the eye is going to clear out and he will get stronger.
Link
Looks like I97 is about to become the next named storm.
Quoting IKE:
New higher reading...82.7 knots (~ 95.1 mph)
Category One Hurricane


There were some higher sfmr readings than that, but until they go to the NE quad I'm not sure how strong it is.
Can someone please tell me at the current forecasted track what will be the impact to Lafayette?
2pm mode runs for 97L



Ike,

are you refering to Gustav or Hanna?
Quoting blueyedhrlyridr:
It sure seems like the models are shifting towards the west. Im sure yall will let me know if im wrong about this hahahaha

Gustav just made his first significant shift off a straight line path ... to the west. I'm not prepared to call it a change in direction just yet, but it could be the start of one. We'll see what the next center fix brings.
Good Afternoon everyone. God speed to everyone trying to get out.

If you want to watch the FEMA briefing CNN, MSNBC, and FOX dropped live coverage. But C-SPAN is still has it live.
Quoting blueyedhrlyridr:
Does everyone feel pretty confident that the galveston area is out of danger


I do as well. However, north of Floatin' G, that is, Houston ~ Lufkin ~ Texarkana ~ N. LA, ArklaTex region...I DO have a concern for extensive flooding, as the system decides to stall and / or hang around for several days.

But a close hit or a hit W. of Sabine Pass - no, IMO only.

Interesting how the convection on the SW side seems to be taking on its on swirl. Could the eye relocate 25 miles SW in that convection? Normally I would say, NO! But, that is exactly what it did after being beaten down over the H mountains last Wednesday. IF that happened, then might there be a closer W strike? Probably, but again, I would say not Galveston...more like Pt. Arthur or Lake Charles.

Right now, though, all bets IMHO continue to be Port Fourchon.

Just washed a Blackhawk go over my house in Memorial here in Houston.

Can't imagine what is going on in NOLA right now, God Bless.
1721. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


There were some higher sfmr readings than that, but until they go to the NE quad I'm not sure how strong it is.


I've kept up with it for the last 60-90 minutes...that's the top reading...it updates every 10 minutes.
I imagine the levees were in better shape though when Betsy came around.
Bridge City Texas is under mandatory evacuation. We are still here and plan on staying.
236 if 97L can stay like it is now then i say TD 9 by 11pm or monday i all so see baning on 97L
Ike you have a nice outflow pattern...should help you develop into the next named storm :-)

can i please have a radar of the eye please
Eye is becoming evident on the visible satellite again. He's strengthening, although its slow because of the SSTs and wind shear. Dry air is not being entrained into the center by the looks of it.
1729. surfmom
1708 - you can get that from Edmund scientific - maybe radio shack - StormW has some references on his blog
1730. Jynni99
Can I please get a link to the best satelite to be looking for current GUS
All NOLA News Feeds: http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html
Link
Is Gustav feeding on the dry air now? At the same time, looks like he is starting to puke up the water he's been taking in.
Eye trying to pop out again...shear and dry air keeping this a slow process but if the eye becomes defined again we should see it be a solid Cat 3...I no longer expect a Cat 4.

I am confused Ike is reporting winds in the Cat 1 range. Then all of the reports are anticipating a possible strengthening to a Cat 4.

I am no rocket scientist but a Cat 1 as a long way from cat 4
Cuba did a fair job of tripping Gustav up.
Let's hope he never finds his feet.
I have decided to stay at home, since all we are expecting here is TS strenght. I am trusting the NHC forecast. anyway I got another place at 20 min drive in case things get ugly. NHC I hope you got this one right I know you have been foloowing the models.
1739. txlori
Where are you at CaneHunter?
Quoting PanhandleGator:
Just my personal opinion, but when they say "MANDATORY EVACUATION" you might want to take heed. Attitudes like that hurt so many people during Katrina.....did we not see that Mother Nature has no sense of humor. When she comes out, she comes out full force. The people who issued that mandatory evacuation do not do so half-heartedly. They truly believe that it is in your best interest to get out. Not to mention, I'm pretty sure that they are much more qualified to make that decision, unless you just happen to be a forecaster for the NHC. Not meaning to berate, just thought it should be said....


Bridge City Texas is under Tropical Storm Warning only according to the professional forecasters at the NHC. However, local county governments called for mandatory evacuation.
Quoting extreme236:
Eye trying to pop out again...shear and dry air keeping this a slow process but if the eye becomes defined again we should see it be a solid Cat 3...I no longer expect a Cat 4


It looks almost perfectly central... This is what its been trying to do for the last 8-12 hours... If this clears out and it gets a good eyewall going... a Strong Cat.3 landfall is a definite possibility..
I see the N/NW shear is moving south and to the west now of Gus as indicated by the UL Flow of Gus.
Gus convection is expanding and may protect his center from the dry air wrapping in from the south.
Could this be Gus trying to get stronger now, who knows but the convection is looking better and deeper.

One thing is for sure the NE and East side of Gus is pushing huge waves.
Looking at the SHIPS data there was already 46 foot wave reported by a Ship and the buoys off Florida
are reporting 34 foot waves when the winds were 52kts gusting to 68kts.
We need to keep a eye (no pun) out on that High Pressure and see if it moves out or try's to wrap around Gus.
1743. elmer1
Quoting NewHopeTx08:
Hey everyone! New member here from Pearland, Texas (Houston). I have checked this site out for years and finally decided to join. So, hello!
hello back to you
blogs eating me!!!
Quoting extreme236:
Eye trying to pop out again...shear and dry air keeping this a slow process but if the eye becomes defined again we should see it be a solid Cat 3...I no longer expect a Cat 4.



Even with a rebuilt eyewall is there a chance of a weakening trend for Gustav or would the storm be more protected against the comming conditions (Colder SSTs/Shear/Dry Air)?
1746. kdav
news sations are saying 135 by 8 pm. highly unlikely that this thing will be a cat 4. i say 130 at max.
Most recent vortex fix has Gustav pressure down to 957 (from 960 the last couple of passes) ... but the eye is open.
1750. kdav
remeber when pressure goes down the winds take time to pick up.
000
URNT12 KNHC 311947
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 31/19:16:50Z
B. 26 deg 04 min N
086 deg 56 min W
C. 700 mb 2747 m
D. 74 kt
E. 129 deg 024 nm
F. 233 deg 088 kt
G. 129 deg 024 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 14 C/ 3050 m
J. 16 C/ 3045 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE QUAD
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF304 2207A GUSTAV OB 11
MAX FL WIND 105 KT NE QUAD 17:30:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 128 / 20NM
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 99 KT NW QUAD 1923Z
Quoting kdav:
news sations are saying 135 by 8 pm. highly unlikely that this thing will be a cat 4. i say 130 at max.


I think Gustav has a brief chance for some reintensification (120-130) before unfavorable conditions weaken him again before landfall. I'm expecting a 105-115 mph storm at landfall. Georges in 1998 was a Cat 2, and it still did significant damage.

I think people are letting their guard down.
The closest buoy to the COC [42003] hasn't reported in over 4 hours. The last report:

10:49 am CDT

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 52.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 68.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 34.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 14 sec
Average Period (APD): 11.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 131 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.30 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.13 in ( Falling Rapidly )
1751. JASON9999
Whoo, Whoooooo!!! All aboard!
At present rate of speed and direction there is about 17 hours left till landfall.
is there even a hanna left?Link
1759. Hhunter
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
I have decided to stay at home, since all we are expecting here is TS strenght. I am trusting the NHC forecast. anyway I got another place at 20 min drive in case things get ugly. NHC I hope you got this one right I know you have been foloowing the models.


cane hunter i assume your trying to be cute, funny or humorous..however, if you are not then you need to hear that NHC Points out that if your in the cone of uncertainty and told to get out then you leave. If your in a low lying are and near the cone of uncertainty you definetely leave...
1760. IKE
Assuming this post isn't eaten, anybody see a reason to keep the winds at 115 mph?
1751....Good Lord....
Hi all. In Biloxi north of I-10, taken a quick break to see what opinions are on Gustav's landfall and what wind we might get.
1765. scla08
Here in Lafayette, LA, my family, my neighbors, and I are planning on riding this thing out.
Oh crap they are talking of more of a Texas issue. They are expecting a more westerly element in the models soon.
1767. IvansEx
Direct from Pensacola, FL:

"Helllooo, Gustav!"

He just introduced himself with a wet, windy squall.
Hanna is moving fast now.
test
Quoting stormkatagory:
Oh crap they are talking of more of a Texas issue. They are expecting a more westerly element in the models soon.


Whom might 'they' be? I am in SE Houston.
Biloxi, you won't get a direct hit probably but will get TS-force winds.
1774. kdav
blog is slow.
Hanna should reach the 8 am monday point by 8 pm today lol.
If Hanna continues at this clip a more Southernly track will be needed because the push to the North West won't occur untill the 4/5 day.
1760. IKE

Dvorak, consistency, pressure dropping. From objective measurements, no. Based on objective measurements 105 mph.
1779. DFW2008
Quoting stormkatagory:
Oh crap they are talking of more of a Texas issue. They are expecting a more westerly element in the models soon.


Where did you hear that?
so
Quoting Vortex95:
If Hanna continues at this clip a more Southernly track will be needed because the push to the North West won't occur untill the 4/5 day.
so your saying this fast movement is bad for south floridians
1782. Walnut
Eye starting to present rather nicely on satellite.
Quoting StormW:
MAX FL WIND 105 KT NE QUAD 17:30:30 Z

Equals 110 mph surface wind.


Isn't that 105 kt wind at flight level?
Quoting Vortex95:
If Hanna continues at this clip a more Southernly track will be needed because the push to the North West won't occur untill the 4/5 day.


I agree with you there and seems shes already moving south of due west
1785. sopla2o
Quoting scla08:
Here in Lafayette, LA, my family, my neighbors, and I are planning on riding this thing out.
I wil
Quoting scla08:
Here in Lafayette, LA, my family, my neighbors, and I are planning on riding this thing out.


I wish you the best.... Good luck... After living through Andrew... Never Again will I make that mistake again...
1786. kdav
possibly stregthening right now.
Dang it is still weaking so now 110 mph winds at 5. Still a dangerous storm but a weakening storm is better than a strenghtening one. Remember Katrina strenghtened a bit before going on land and even after. If Gustav continues to weaken the effects won't be as bad.
WHY is my posts not showing!
Updated Post
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Many Thanks to Zoomiami for making and maintaining this file.

Whole picture Tracks and Cones
Hurricane Hunters Vortex Plots, Gustav
Gustav Tracks and Cones, shifting slightly WEST
Hanna Tracks and Cone, no idea where its going.
Ike ?? Tracks, shifting SOUTH

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Are these new model runs?
Quoting kdav:
possibly stregthening right now.
who
Quoting stormkatagory:
Oh crap they are talking of more of a Texas issue. They are expecting a more westerly element in the models soon.


Where are you getting this info?
La Porte TX
1793. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:
MAX FL WIND 105 KT NE QUAD 17:30:30 Z

Equals 110 mph surface wind.


Wind speeds lowered from the 1:00pm CDT advisory
I know Gustav is the main act in town but.....


Is Hanna even a tropical entity anymore?

Im having trouble picking out the LLC on visible satellites.

Thanks in Advance

DFB
Quoting billy305:
soso your saying this fast movement is bad for south floridians


I would think so. Less time for it to turn north. But with the shear, this should be a minor storm. It's laughable that the GFDL has this thing as a Cat 3 at some point...
1796. kdav
eye was just filled in again fro liek the hundreth time. it cant seem to get its act together. thats a good thing.
1777 Voortex - Is it really Hanna moving faster or is it because the HH found the COC in a more westerly position than earlier projected?
1786 = Possible Strengthening

1787 = Possible Weakening

Make up your mind Gustav!
Wait, nevermind. I see what you were saying StormW. Got a bit confused. I'm tired.
1800. DFW2008
Quoting stormkatagory:
WHY is my posts not showing!


BLog hole...where did you see a texas issue for this storm?
It looks like Gustav, 97, and 98 are all looking better, and Hanna looks like she is running for the hills!!! It also looks like eyewall in Gustav is trying to reform just southwest of his previous one. I think Doc had it right... i think the TX/LA border better pack up and get out now!!
Its hard to tell just which direction Hanna is moving and how fast- she has no discernible COC! The last HH run they found a large and elongated "central area" of light winds and low pressure, but no true center fix. Hanna is quickly becoming an open wave.
new blog
Off the Navy Site: Modis Water Vapor

Lastly serious why dont we ck with the doc. maybe we all send in a buck and up grade his servers. Works fine 95% of time but very slow just when you need it most. That way we could get though the post like this one faster.
Whats the story about Texas becoming more of a player? or a more westerly turn from the models? Corpus Christi here
To Stormkatagory -
Sorry but I think you have those of us in TX stirred up. I've had an inkling that Gustav might still turn more to the west but was getting over that feeling and just having empathy for those in LA. How reliable is your source that says TX may still be a player?
Hopefully the storm will continue to weaken.
isaw the last models and its scary they are starting to shift.. anyone seen this?//
Quoting gordydunnot:
Lastly serious why dont we ck with the doc. maybe we all send in a buck and up grade his servers. Works fine 95% of time but very slow just when you need it most. That way we could get though the post like this one faster.


Or simply put up a paypal link on the main webpage.
hi all hope everyone is in a safe place. Looks like Gus is trying to come visit me.
Just landed from doing a fly over of New Orleans. traffic is VERY light and appears most have left. Chartoff and the Gov. met at Lakefront and had a lot of assets in place already. Much better than for Katrina...
1812. saroff
Oh no.... Cat FIVE
.... thoughts about this??

Just posted by the AP:


"WASHINGTON %u2014 The government's disaster relief chief says Hurricane Gustav is growing into a monster Category 5 storm.... "

http://www.tahoedailytribune.com/article/20080830/NEWS/808309994/-1/rss02
Look at the date line the article, from Saturday!