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A Very-Good-News Story: Microbursts and U.S. Aviation

By: Bob Henson 4:14 PM GMT on June 30, 2016

If you’re one of the millions of Americans who plan to take at least one flight this summer, take heart: you are remarkably well protected from weather during your flight, especially considering the risks that U.S. passengers faced not that long ago. From the 1970s to the 1990s, more than 800 fliers perished in U.S. commercial airline crashes that were linked to microbursts, small but intense downdrafts generated by thunderstorms. It took years of persistence from scientists to raise awareness of the issue and solve the problem. But solve it they did, by developing warning systems that took advantage of Doppler radar, surface wind sensors, and sophisticated software. Thanks to these systems, the last fatal crash of a U.S. passenger plane attributed to a microburst was on July 2, 1994, when a US Airways flight crashed near the Charlotte-Douglas International Airport, killing 37. As of this weekend, we’ll have put that disaster 22 years behind us.


Figure 1. A microburst emerges from a thunderstorm downdraft. Image credit: NWS/Birmingham, AL.


Figure 2. Depending on the amount of moisture in a thunderstorm and its environment, a microburst may be “dry” (left) or “wet” (right). Both types can be dangerous to aircraft. A video by photographer Brian Snider shows the formation of a dramatic wet microburst near Tucson in August 2015. Image credit: NOAA.

A stealthy villain
Microbursts emerged as a major threat when the mid-century boom in consumer aviation put thousands more flights aloft. It was in the 1970s that the eminent storm researcher T. Theodore Fujita analyzed the risk from localized downdrafts related to convection (the upward motion related to instability that leads to showers and thunderstorms). First trained as a mechanical engineer, Fujita took a research flight in 1945 over the debris left by the bombs that struck Hiroshima and Nagasaki and observed starburst damage patterns emanating outward from the greatest impact points of the bombs. Later, while surveying damage from the Super Outbreak of tornadoes of April 3, 1974, Fujita recognized similar starburst patterns, and he concluded that some of the damage must have resulted from descending wind bursts.

The next year, an Eastern Airlines flight crashed while landing at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York on June 24, 1975, killing 113. Fujita was enlisted to help analyze the disaster. In a 1976 report, he remarked on “four to five cells of intense downdrafts which are to be called ‘downburst cells’. Apparently, those aircraft which flew through the cells encountered considerable difficulties in landing, while others landed between the cells without even noticing the danger areas on both sides of the approach path.” Fujita estimated that the peak downdraft speed several hundred feet above ground was up to eight times higher than conventional thinking would have predicted. Alas, he added, “there is no way of predicting the occurrence of these phenomena both in time and space.”

Even with very limited data, Fujita’s legendary analytic skills enabled him to see the core process at work: “In general, the air near the ground spreads out violently from the ‘outburst center,’ the spreading center above the ground. Unless a heading correction is made immediately, an aircraft in the crosswind burst will drift away from its expected course. If an aircraft flies straight into the outburst center, its indicated airspeed will increase momentarily followed by a high rate of sink. Before the aircraft can break out of the downburst cell, its indicated air speed will drop suddenly, due to an increase in the tailwind component.”


Figure 3. Diagram showing how a microburst could bring down an aircraft that flies directly through it. Modern warning systems now allow air traffic controllers to steer passenger planes safely around microbursts. Image credit: NCAR Research Applications Laboratory.

From dismissal to acceptance
Fujita’s ideas faced widespread skepticism, as noted by Josh Chamot (National Science Foundation, or NSF): “Until the mid-1970s, most researchers believed that downdrafts would substantially weaken before reaching the ground and not pose a threat to aircraft. They blamed tornadoes and gust fronts as the primary causes of storm damage.” After the JFK crash, the FAA developed a simple cluster of anemometers called LLWAS that could detect wind shear related to large-scale phenomena such as a frontal passage, but the LLWAS sensors were not close enough together to detect microbursts and other crucial small-scale features.

Meanwhile, Fujita and colleagues at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) carried out several field campaigns with NSF support, designed to convince scientists and policymakers of the hazard and figure out how to address it. The first of these was Project NIMROD (Northern Illinois Meteorological Research on Downburst). On May 29, 1978, Fujita and NCAR’s James Wilson became the first scientists to detect a microburst on radar. “It was right on top of us,” Wilson told me in a 2010 interview. After this event, Fujita created a new category, microbursts, to denote downbursts less than 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) across.

Project NIMROD detected about 50 microbursts. A follow-up project in 1982, JAWS (Joint Airport Weather Studies) found dozens more near Denver’s now-defunct Stapleton International Airport. When JAWS kicked off its operations that summer, “the FAA was still not ready to admit there was such a thing as a microburst,” according to Wilson. But midway through the project, on July 9, 1982, a Pan Am aircraft was forced down by a microburst in a residential neighborhood in Kenner, Louisiana, killing all 145 people on board and 8 others on the ground. That calamity helped jump-start FAA funding for the remainder of the summer. The agency’s involvement in research accelerated further after a microburst-related 1985 Delta crash near Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport took 137 lives.


Figure 4. NCAR’s John McCarthy spent much of his time during the summers of 1984 and 1985 in the control tower of Denver’s Stapleton International Airport during the CLAWS project (Classify, Locate, Avoid Wind Shear). Image credit: UCAR.


Several more field projects followed, as did NCAR’s development of an enhanced version of the LLWAS system that’s now in place at more than 100 U.S. airports. NCAR and MIT’s Lincoln Laboratory also began collaborating with the FAA to develop a radar-based warning system called Terminal Doppler Weather Radar. TDWR systems were deployed at 45 U.S. airports in the late 1980s and 1990s, parallel with the NWS NEXRAD deployment. Along with the warning system, there was newfound pilot awareness of the wind shear hazard. All of the world’s commercial jet pilots were soon required to take part in a wind shear training program, and a powerful series of videotapes featured pilots sharing their stories of microburst encounters. Together, these innovations led to the essential vanquishing of microburst-related accidents on U.S. passenger planes since the mid-1990s.

Outside the U.S., “most international airports have no wind shear protection,” said Bruce Carmichael, director of NCAR’s Aviation Applications Program. “However, the new generation of aircraft radar systems include forward-looking wind shear warnings, so there is a good deal of capability inherent in the aircraft.”

In the realm of general aviation (all civilian flights outside of scheduled passenger service), wind shear remains a deadly threat, because most of those flights involve smaller aircraft and airports that lack the means of detecting wind shear. Still, there is only an average of about 10 shear-related fatalities per year in U.S. general aviation, compared to the 400-plus general aviation deaths related to weather hazards as a whole.


Figure 5. An intense hailstorm bears down on the NWS NEXRAD radar located at Front Range Airport, just southeast of Denver International Airport, on May 21, 2014. A separate radar at DIA that focuses on smaller-scale phenomena is part of the FAA’s Terminal Doppler Weather Radar network. The storm was part of a multiday outbreak of severe weather from the Rockies to the Northeast U.S. (May 18-23) that caused $4 billion in damage. Image credit: Bob Henson.

Safer skies overall: just one fatal passenger crash in nearly a decade
Not only are U.S. airline passengers far safer from microbursts than they were decades ago, but they’ve been remarkably safe from other weather hazards—and just about all hazards, for that matter. On August 27, 2006, all 47 passengers aboard a Delta Connection flight were killed in a crash at the Blue Grass Airport near Lexington, KY, that was attributed to pilot error. Since then, there has only been one fatal accident on a U.S. passenger plane: a Continental Connection flight that crashed near Buffalo, NY, on February 12, 2009, killing all 45 passengers. This crash was also attributed to pilot error. For the nation to go nearly a decade with just one fatal accident on U.S. passenger planes would have been unthinkable as recently as the 1990s, when fatalities were a near-annual occurrence.

Americans are also much safer on the road: highway deaths are down by close to 20,000 per year compared to the 1970s and by about 10,000 per year compared to the 1990s. Unfortunately, a big spike occurred in 2015, when traffic deaths rose by an estimated 8% over the previous year, equating to some 2800 additional deaths. This was the largest year-over-year percentage increase in 50 years, according to the National Safety Council. While we don’t know exactly what caused this spike (increased traffic and growing phone-related distraction are possibilities), we do know that weather continues to be a major factor in highway safety. Roughly 3400 people are killed each year when driving in rain, and roughly 5700 on wet roads, according to the Federal Highway Administration.

The take-home message for travelers this summer: don’t worry too much about weather hazards if you’re a passenger on a commercial flight--but when you’re on the road, do everything that you can to drive safely and defensively, especially during adverse conditions. That text message can wait!

I'll be back with a new post by Friday afternoon, including updates on the tropical cyclone likely to form off the coast of Mexico in the next few days and the potential for very heavy rains across the Central Plains and Midwest into next week. PS: If you're hearing claims of "unprecedented" jet stream flow from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere, check out the excellent debunking just published by Jason Samenow at Capital Weather Gang.

Bob Henson

Aviation Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanx for the update. That's what caused the crash in Kenner, La. Back in the early 80's.
Thanks for this very informative post Mr Henson, always happy to learn a bit more about weather and aviation in general, two tightly intertwined topics with a rich (shall I say turbulent? OK lame joke...) history behind them. Turbulence can be a pretty bad experience. I was once on a commercial jet on its way to land; during the approach the pilots had to fly through thick cumulus clouds and when the shakin' n' jumpin' stopped I was very happy not to throw up because I was pretty much about to... A few people are injured that way every year worldwide during bad encounters with strong turb.
Some breaking news about climate research and policy :
Arctic Sea Ice Blog 2016 update 3: crunch time
Neven - June 30.
The mysterious "cold blob" in the North Atlantic Ocean is starting to give up its secrets
Chris Mooney for The Washington Post - June 30.
Did The Washington Post Just Violate Its Own Policy On Climate Science-Denying Letters?
Mediamatters.org - June 30.
Thanks doc for the update, however the tropics ain't so quiet; in the Eastern Pacific their is potential for Agatha to form this weekend. The tropical Atlantic remains in slumber with two features, the frontal trough over the Northern Gulf of Mexico in association with an area of pressure been "Monitored" for possible development. The other a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antillies, however it been "Monitored" for a possibility of tropical development...
Bob you're hitting it on great articles this week, really enjoyed that! I remember taking off out of Minneapolis back in 1991 and I'm pretty sure we were hit by a Microburst. We were climbing fast through nearby thunderstorms and the plane dropped I would guess a couple of thousand feet, we dropped so fast the stewardess preparing the drink cart bounced off the ceiling, luckily all the passengers had their seatbelts on or their could have been a lot of injuries. The stewardess ended up with a concussion and sitting for the rest of the flight. I think the fact we were taking off and under full throttle is why we probably didn't slam into the ground, might have been a different story if we were landing, scary stuff!
According the the National Highway Traffic Safety Admin's, FARS reporting system, there were about 30,000 fatalities on the roads in 2014, if you include deaths of pedestrians, motorcycle riders, people on bikes, truckers and bus riders etc.
http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx

Quoting 3. Ed22:

Thanks doc for the update, however the tropics ain't so quiet; in the Eastern Pacific their is potential for Agatha to form this weekend. The tropical Atlantic remains in slumber with two features, the frontal trough over the Northern Gulf of Mexico in association with an area of pressure been "Monitored" for possible development. The other a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antillies, however it been "Monitored" for a possibility of tropical development...


He did mention the potential for a Pacific storm. Curious as to who is monitoring the wave near the Lesser Antillies for potential development. The NHC doesn't say anything in their outlook.
Well I think my 21-9-5 prediction may be true. The way the Atlantic is setting up I wouldn't be surprised if my numbers are passed up.
Thanks Mr. Henson for the good news!

It seems a miracle that there hasn't been any microburst-related aviation accidents in Finland, since otherwise, microbursts cause fatalities.

Also, it was surprising to hear, that as late as in the 1970's, the ground-level intensity of microbursts was disputed. The localized, non-tornadic nature of damage is sometimes easy to spot.

Mr Henson is on a ROLL. Thanks for the informative post.
Quoting 7. bigwes6844:

Well I think my 21-9-5 prediction may be true. The way the Atlantic is setting up I wouldn't be surprised if my numbers are passed up.


None of the experts think that's a possibility. But.............early season forecasts often bust and conditions in the Atlantic and surrounding basins change quickly are aren't very predictable. So, anything is possible for sure! Hope that doesn't happen, better to be bored to death that witness death caused by a raging hurricane season.
Thanks Bob. Looking forward to tracking what should be Hurricane Agatha next week, and probably at least one other East Pac storm in the near future. Finally go time out there. It's the typical early season lull in the Atlantic. Probably not much to look at on our side for the next 2-3 weeks. After that, it'll be game on for wave watching and more right through October...
Quoting 9. ClimateChange:

Unprecedented: Scientists declare global climate emergency after jet stream crosses equator


Hard to believe anyone that uses a back scratcher as his pointer in the video.
I don't know how, but there's still about a .5 mile of ice holding tight to the coast in Barrow, Alaska.
There's been several nice break ups over the past 10 days, but a small strip of ice is still holding on.

It should be any day now that we finally see a full break up of the ice in Barrow.

Watch the 10 day loop (expanded full screen) for nice viewing.
Link
Quoting 9. ClimateChange:

Unprecedented: Scientists declare global climate emergency after jet stream crosses equator


I saw this and was wondering what Jeff/Bob's opinion of it is.
Quoting 9. ClimateChange:

Unprecedented: Scientists declare global climate emergency after jet stream crosses equator
This just sounds bad. What will the consequences be?
Thank you again Mr. Henson, for an informative and relevant article!
I managed a jet charter operation for a few years and all of the pilots had tremendous respect for t-cells. And since we rarely flew into major airports they would not have had the advantages of the TDWR systems. I am very thankful that Mr. Fujita did not shrink in the face of peer opposition and was able to gather sufficient data to support his research. I would think that he is responsible for saving thousands of lives.
Thanks Mr. Henson.; very true of how different they run (or delay) flights now when t-storms move in as opposed to years ago. Most harrowing experience I had in an airplane was landing at Dulles/DC during a t-storm in 1984; plane dropped quite a bit nearing the airfield and we hit the deck hard upon landing......................Much worse that any air turbulence that I ever experienced and I am certain that they would have waived off the landings to allow the weather to clear if that was today.
Mr. Henson are you a lecturer, if so where? I ask this question because of the way you explain things. I may not understand all the terms but I am learning
Quoting 15. boogiewonderland:



I saw this and was wondering what Jeff/Bob's opinion of it is.


Quoting 12. MAweatherboy1:

Thanks Bob. Looking forward to tracking what should be Hurricane Agatha next week, and probably at least one other East Pac storm in the near future. Finally go time out there. It's the typical early season lull in the Atlantic. Probably not much to look at on our side for the next 2-3 weeks. After that, it'll be game on for wave watching and more right through October...


Hold on, what potential system could become Hurricane Agatha? The NHC and other models show nothing in the atlantic for a while.
I experienced a microburst at ground level North of DT Tampa in Historic Old Seminole Hts.. incredible experience! I was standing in my back door and decided to close the high quality multi-layered full glass back door a few seconds prior to the microburst. I was lucky. I only had the glass door shattered, and an aluminum shed protected by several LARGE tree canopies was flattened to about 9 inches high! while not damaged, my new T-111 siding and 2 coats of primer and 2 coats of paint two weeks prior required a bunch of stiff deck brush work to get rid of the leaves and branches imbedded in the paint. many others were NOT so lucky and lost their homes. the response was amazing. within 10 minutes, the Fire Dept equipped with phones, radios, fire extinguishers and axes were knocking on doors. within 45 minutes, the Mayor and her troup were there and making things happen to assist everyone. immediately after my damage, I called my cousin, Capt Robert Weir of USAir who instantly told me what I had just experienced - about 30 minutes prior to local news meteorologists "guessed" what happened :)
24. Ed22
Quoting 6. luvtogolf:



He did mention the potential for a Pacific storm. Curious as to who is monitoring the wave near the Lesser Antillies for potential development. The NHC doesn't say anything in their outlook.
Even though the NHC didn't mention it in their updates, they have to Monitor the tropics anyway because things change quickly...
Maybe a little counter clockwise rotation South of New Orleans on the radar! If anybody can post a regional radar of South of New Orleans please do, it seems when I do nothing shows up.



Quoting 22. tigerdeF:



Hold on, what potential system could become Hurricane Agatha? The NHC and other models show nothing in the atlantic for a while.

The system in the Pacific is the one the models are saying can become Agatha.
The gfs has been consistently forecasting a major hurricane followed by another hurricane.img src="http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?The developing system at 72 hours.time=2016063006&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=072 hr">same system at 180 hours.
Quoting 16. Kenfa03:

This just sounds bad. What will the consequences be?
I'm wondering what they mean exactly about "the death of Winter"??
People who really care about tropical storms and the like really should read the Tropical Weather Discussion, not just the Tropical Outlook. You'll find it all in the discussions.

The tropical wave that was approaching the lesser Antilles no
longer has a surface reflection and was removed from the 30/1200
UTC surface analysis.


Great blog post by Herr Henson today!
Quoting 26. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


The system in the Pacific is the one the models are saying can become Agatha.
The gfs has been consistently forecasting a major hurricane followed by another hurricane.img src="http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?The developing system at 72 hours.time=2016063006&field=Sea+Level+Pressure& hour=072 hr">same system at 180 hours.


img src="http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?
time=2016063006&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=180 hr"

Sorry
I was not quite 5 years old and this occurred on my little sister's 4th birthday when we were living in Kenner. My father was working on the river at the time and was a wreck frantically trying to come in to anchorage so that he could call home to my mother make sure we were alright. And although this occurred south of my neighborhood, it was terrifying and traumatizing for many. My mother staunchly resisted setting foot on an airplane for almost two decades afterwards and frankly made me scared to fly as well. And although I had to get over that fear myself for work, I still get nervous during take-offs, particularly during poor weather conditions. That said, thank goodness for advancements in technology and lessons learned!!
The following is the 30 year anniversary article posted by the Times Picayune.
http://www.nola.com/traffic/index.ssf/2012/07/pan _am_jet_crash_in_kenner_rev.html Link
Quoting 13. luvtogolf:


Hard to believe anyone that uses a back scratcher as his pointer in the video.
Actually, as far as I am aware, only one scientist is behind this jet-stream panic - Paul Beckwith of the University of Ottawa. He is a terrible public speaker, and his YouTube videos are so bad that I cannot bear to watch them. He is passionate about AGW/CC and the need for action, but his activist communications are examples of some of the worst attempts at video presentations that I have ever seen.

Paul Beckwith is a big proponent of of the "underwater suspension tunnels" concept pushed by former WU member Patrick McNulty a.k.a. "cyclonebuster."

Academically, Beckwith's specialty is lasers, and here is an example of some of the critiques of him that I found:

"I wouldn't lend him too much credibility on this subject. All of his scientifically published and peer-reviewed papers are on aspects of lasers, his actual area of academic expertise."

"His opinions on climate change are undoubtedly informed, but he has not published peer reviewed literature on the subject, he has not done modelling which would lead to the conclusion asserted and his singular, non-expert opinion is not as weighty as the IPCC 5 report by a long shot."

So until and unless people that I respect in the field - including Jeff Masters and Bob Henson - tell us that this jetstream crossing the equator is a likely serious and significant problem, I will not get too excited about it.
Quoting 16. Kenfa03:

This just sounds bad. What will the consequences be?
Certainly could mean more intense tornado outbreaks...and in regions where they are not known to occur...Its been happening more often over the past 10 years, and likely will increase in frequency.
Quoting 27. LargoFl:

I'm wondering what they mean exactly about "the death of Winter"??


In my view it's an even-faster type of climate change scenario : you push up front the fact that the intertropical convergence belt is expanding toward the pole, up to the point where in a fairly close future the Jet Stream basically ceases to behave like it does now because the strong temp. differential between the poles and the equator that brings it into existence simply ceases to be, all because of the polar amplification effect. Self-reinforcing feedback as they like to call it. Well, that something like that IMO.

Xulonn .31 : Good point. We need more credible people to speak about it so we can get a more accurate picture. A wider amplitude in the Jet stream's path seemingly observed in the last decades is nevertheless a very serious hypothesis (see Jennifer Francis et al.) that's been attracting the attention of the sci. community lately.
In 1982 here in New Orleans a Boeing 727 fully loaded took off to the east with a t storm just over the end of the runway. They never made 250 ft up after they rotated as the microburst slammed it down into a neighborhood .

Video.... 1982 Boeing 727, Pan Am flight 759, crash in Kenner Louisiana
waarisdetijd 14,558 views




Pan Am flight 759 and one miracle

Patraps wunderblog July 6,2012
Quoting 9. ClimateChange:

Unprecedented: Scientists declare global climate emergency after jet stream crosses equator

Jason Samenow (WA Post Chief Met) addresses the hype....
"Claim that jet stream crossing equator is "climate emergency" is utter nonsense"

Link



Quoting 27. LargoFl:

I'm wondering what they mean exactly about "the death of Winter"??
Thats worrisome. Maybe some of the experts will chime in.
37. IDTH

Quoting 35. JNFlori30A:


Jason Samenow (WA Post Chief Met) addresses the hype....
"Claim that jet stream crossing equator is "climate emergency" is utter nonsense"

Link






Thanks for posting this link, JNFlori30A. Jason Samenow did a great job of debunking this way-over-hyped item, which unfortunately has been getting a lot of traction on social media.
Rotation?

Quoting 35. JNFlori30A:


Jason Samenow (WA Post Chief Met) addresses the hype....

Link
:-D What a colossal failure for RS... But he's gotta get over it, after all he's doing a good job, apart from a few exaggerations that are typical of his writing style (as a fiction author it must surely help him). If he starts making gross mistakes like it appears he just did there, it's fine that wiser people rectify the story though. These are healthy debates in my opinion, so long as there are no prejudices made / stereotypes hurled at each other in the end. RS is pretty consistent in general for a "doomer", maybe too much for being considered as such I think.
(Edit- True he's always sounding the alarm, but that's because he feels concerned. Now there he went out of his way, but personally, I've always taken his articles with a grain of salt when they're about such complex climate systems. -Edit)
Anyways he's not pretending to be a climate scientist after all, contrary to some well-known deniers...
I just want an experts perspective on the situation that's getting worse in lake okechobee with the runoff into our rivers. Would a tropical system help or hurt the situation even more and etc.
Quoting 40. 999Ai2016:

:-D What a colossal failure for RS... But he's gotta get over it, after all he's doing a good job, apart from a few exaggerations that are typical of his writing style (as a fiction author it must surely help him). If he starts making gross mistakes like it appears he just did there, it's fine that wiser people rectify the story though. These are healthy debates in my opinion, so long as there are no prejudices made / stereotypes hurled at each other in the end. RS is pretty consistent in general for a "doomer", maybe too much for being considered as such I think. He's not pretending to be a climate scientist after all, contrary to some well-known deniers...


He actually does a disservice. His posts are nothing but hyperbole and should be viewed with tremendous skepticism. His actions do just as much to undermine the public's knowledge of what is happening as any of the best denialists out there. One could call him the "Anthony Watts" of the left.
Quoting 40. 999Ai2016:

:-D What a colossal failure for RS... But he's gotta get over it, after all he's doing a good job, apart from a few exaggerations that are typical of his writing style (as a fiction author it must surely help him). If he starts making gross mistakes like it appears he just did there, it's fine that wiser people rectify the story though. These are healthy debates in my opinion, so long as there are no prejudices made / stereotypes hurled at each other in the end. RS is pretty consistent in general for a "doomer", maybe too much for being considered as such I think. He's not pretending to be a climate scientist after all, contrary to some well-known deniers...
Guess thats means his death of winter claim was bogus?
Quoting 41. Ryandking89:

I just want an experts perspective on the situation that's getting worse in lake okechobee with the runoff into our rivers. Would a tropical system help or hurt the situation even more and etc.


That would depend upon if the Army Corp of Engineers gets the lake level to where they would like it to be in advance of any potential system, and how much rain any system would deliver. So, no one would know for sure. Who knows? if too much water is dumped, you may be looking at the exact opposite situation next year.
TROPICALCYCLONEALERT you have an email.

One more day of high temps then kind of back to normal which is 89/62. Yesterday was 96.3F
Quoting 43. Kenfa03:

Guess thats means his death of winter claim was bogus?

Winter, you mean winter as our grandparents used to know it ? It's dead already. Flora itself testifies to it :
Understanding Climate Change, With Help From Thoreau
Quoting 38. BobHenson:

Thanks for posting this link, JNFlori30A. Jason Samenow did a great job of debunking this way-over-hyped item, which unfortunately has been getting a lot of traction on social media.
Thanks for confirming my suspicion, Bob. In his listing of "5 characteristics of scientific denialism," Skeptical Science's John Cook lists "Fake Experts" as #2.

I know that you are being polite and not criticizing Professor Beckwith, but such people irritate me. Even though he is an academic who recently earned a Ph.D. and teaches climate science, Prof. Beckwith doesn't appear to subscribe to the principles of academic and scientific rigor. Based on his pronouncements about an aspect of AGW/CC where he is not an expert, and although he is an AGW/CC "activist" he is not much better than the denialists themselves when he promotes bad, error-ridden science.
I haven't posted on here in a long time but today's topic reminded me of a Grand Canyon tour I once flew on so I will reluctantly share it....

A pilot I once flew with explained the day's condition very creatively. "Blumpy"...saying it was going to be bumpy and lumpy. We were in a Cessna 402C, so we were at the mercy of even the smallest of thermals. I can't recall the altitude, but high enough above the boundary layer, we flew around a nearby summer time convective tower that spewed out a significant perturbation that the pilot deemed as an "altitude excursion of significance". Nothing like flying along and all of a sudden you fall faster than gravity can pull. The pilot was very experienced and corrected immediately without even a word. Until after it was over, and then we heard a sigh of relief in our headsets from him. He is a veteran military pilot so when this got his attention he said those things just happen and you have to be trained to automatically deal with them, and then let go once you are in the clear.

And yes, he did need cleaning services after landing from 2 of the passengers, I was one of them, though I kept everything in the bag. The other person wasn't so accurate with their P-vector.

Have a great day everyone.

-The Mathematical Del Operator with two L's.
Also, read something about the sun is entering a "blank" period void of sun spots. Mentioned a phenomenon called Maunder Minimum and predicted a mini-ice age was in the making. NY Post posted online yesterday. Anyone keep up with the solar weather lately?

There is one on the back side. photo courtesy of: http://spaceweather.com/
Quoting 20. wadadlian:

Mr. Henson are you a lecturer, if so where? I ask this question because of the way you explain things. I may not understand all the terms but I am learning


I'm not a regular lecturer, though I've given a number of talks to various groups & the general public. Glad you're enjoying the blog!
Quoting 42. daddyjames:



He actually does a disservice. His posts are nothing but hyperbole and should be viewed with tremendous skepticism. His actions do just as much to undermine the public's knowledge of what is happening as any of the best denialists out there. One could call him the "Anthony Watts" of the left.


I agree. I've seen this all over my Facebook feed. I thought it was probably suspect since I hadn't seen it discussed here, but it's hard to know sometimes. Misinformation like this creates confusion. It just gives denialists ammunition.
I am going to see if the image works this time.

We have 94E
Quoting 46. 999Ai2016:


Winter, you mean winter as our grandparents used to know it ? It's dead already. Flora itself testifies to it :
Understanding Climate Change, With Help From Thoreau


On my blog, some time ago, I had discussed some phenological records from the early 1900s in the Ohio Monthly Weather Review. Most trees seem to be blooming 2-3 weeks earlier than they had 100+ years ago, on average. In an extremely mild year like 2012, trees were leafing out some 4-6 weeks earlier. I've often said if we could invent a time machine, there would be no doubting climate change. If we transported somebody from Thoreau's era to the present, they would probably find today's climate incomprehensibly different from the one with which they were familiar.
Thanks Mr. Henson. I was just thinking this week, after watching several micro-burst t-storms in the DFW metroplex, how crashes like Delta 191 at DFW airport in 1985, would likely never happen again.

I was outside talking to a friend in the parking lot of an apartment complex in Irving TX watching the weather, as there were several small "pop-up style" thundershowers in the area. We heard the loud thunder-clap sound and turned around and saw the mushroom cloud of smoke near the North end of the airport but outside the rain. Still not knowing what had happened, but curious, we drove into the airport using the south service road. We were blasted by a North-South wind blowing a cloud of dust and debris ahead of it. When we got to he North end all we could see were firetrucks spraying in semicircles. Later found out, that except for the tail of the L-1011, where 19 survived, there was no piece of debris larger than 3 feet across. If the plan had not smacked the surface water tanks off to the east of the airport, they might have made it.

Reading the transcripts the pilots had an idea what was coming but not how bad it was going to be.

Again, thankful for the expertise and compassion of all those involved to make sure it does not happen again.
Quoting 41. Ryandking89:

I just want an experts perspective on the situation that's getting worse in lake okechobee with the runoff into our rivers. Would a tropical system help or hurt the situation even more and etc.

Marty "The Indian River Keeper" and a member of this blog will probably be able to help you with that question.
More info at http://indianriverkeeper.org


Ecm we at 192 hours
Quoting 35. JNFlori30A:


Jason Samenow (WA Post Chief Met) addresses the hype....
"Claim that jet stream crossing equator is "climate emergency" is utter nonsense"

Link






From the same newspaper that recently violated its own prohibition on publishing climate denialism. I would take this article with a big grain of salt. Paul Beckwith is a respected climate researcher, so I doubt he would sound the alarm without reason to do so. I have been warning, for some time, that I feel a climate disaster is going to occur this summer. I thought it might be the flooding in West Virginia, but I still think something even bigger is going to happen.
Quoting 61. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:



Ecm we at 192 hours

Your going to have to post those offsite and link to them.
Quoting 62. ClimateChange:



From the same newspaper that recently violated its own prohibition on publishing climate denialism. I would take this article with a big grain of salt. Paul Beckwith is a respected climate researcher, so I doubt he would sound the alarm without reason to do so. I have been warning, for some time, that I feel a climate disaster is going to occur this summer. I thought it might be the flooding in West Virginia, but I still think something even bigger is going to happen.
So you think he is right?
Quoting 64. Kenfa03:

So you think he is right?


Only time will tell. It's a concern, especially with the renewed push to ban guns. If we were to experience a climate disaster that threatened civilization as we know, how would the common person stand any chance of survival without arms? At best, they would beholden to what is left of the state. One thing I'm sure of is this: that the 1% would be heavily armed, or, at the very least, have mercenaries willing to do their bidding. The same 1% primarily responsible for the current state of things.

Apologies for kind of going off-topic. Just wanted to respond to Kenfa03.
Quoting 50. DellOperator:

Also, read something about the sun is entering a "blank" period void of sun spots. Mentioned a phenomenon called Maunder Minimum and predicted a mini-ice age was in the making. NY Post posted online yesterday. Anyone keep up with the solar weather lately?


No Maunder Minimum and no mini ice age. The New York Post is closer to tabloid than journalism.
Quoting 65. ClimateChange:



Only time will tell. It's a concern, especially with the renewed push to ban guns. If we were to experience a climate disaster that threatened civilization as we know, how would the common person stand any chance of survival without arms? At best, they would beholden to what is left of the state. One thing I'm sure of is this: that the 1% would be heavily armed, or, at the very least, have mercenaries willing to do their bidding. The same 1% primarily responsible for the current state of things.

Apologies for kind of going off-topic. Just wanted to respond to Kenfa03.
That makes sense. Thanks for the reply.
Quoting 38. BobHenson:



Thanks for posting this link, JNFlori30A. Jason Samenow did a great job of debunking this way-over-hyped item, which unfortunately has been getting a lot of traction on social media.
Good Afternoon Mr. Henson. I could tell by looking at the hemispheric chart that it was not a rare event, but isnt this happening more often now.? I ask this question because with the " looping Jets " we see becoming more commonplace, this would allow for sharper temperature gradients, cooler air reaching deeper into the tropics, and as we saw this past winter, warmer air reaching the North pole. These occurrences make me theorize the possibility of more in the way of severe weather outbreaks.
Quoting 65. ClimateChange:



Only time will tell. It's a concern, especially with the renewed push to ban guns. If we were to experience a climate disaster that threatened civilization as we know, how would the common person stand any chance of survival without arms? At best, they would beholden to what is left of the state. One thing I'm sure of is this: that the 1% would be heavily armed, or, at the very least, have mercenaries willing to do their bidding. The same 1% primarily responsible for the current state of things.

Apologies for kind of going off-topic. Just wanted to respond to Kenfa03.


There has been no push to ban guns. That just isn't true. There has been a push to restrict access to certain weapons and make it more difficult to buy guns, but a ban is a misnomer.
Looking like a pretty wet 24 hours for a nice chunk of the north half of Florida it would appear:










Read a article today that said>The most oft-cited example of a shutdown in sun spots is the so-called Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period that began around 1645. Sun spots virtually vanished from the sun's surface. The decline coincided with a climate period known as the Little Ice Age, when temperatures fell substantially in various locations around the globe and different times during the time span.What would this do to climate change?
Quoting 41. Ryandking89:

I just want an experts perspective on the situation that's getting worse in lake okechobee with the runoff into our rivers. Would a tropical system help or hurt the situation even more and etc.


Well, I wont claim to be an expert, but I do work in Stuart, which is right at the mouth of the St. Lucie River, ground zero for all this mess on the east coast. The way I see it, a tropical system is give and take. It might provide some much needed flushing of the estuaries to help push all this algae muck out to sea, but it would only exacerbate the long term problem--which is too much water in lake O. The Herbert Hoover dike is aging, and to prevent catastrophic flooding of rural areas south of the lake, they release massive amounts of nutrient rich water (primarily due to fertilizer run-off) every day to the east and west coasts through canals. A tropical system would further increase the need for water releases from the lake, which would make the eutrophication of the St Lucie River even worse.
Quoting 74. victoria780:

Read a article today that said>The most oft-cited example of a shutdown in sun spots is the so-called Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period that began around 1645. Sun spots virtually vanished from the sun's surface. The decline coincided with a climate period known as the Little Ice Age, when temperatures fell substantially in various locations around the globe and different times during the time span.What would this do to climate change?
Quoting 68. Naga5000:



No Maunder Minimum and no mini ice age. The New York Post is closer to tabloid than journalism.


Nothing, a tiny blip even if Maunder Minimum were to happen.
a Waterspout in Tampa Bay earlier today............................................. .........................
Quoting 71. Naga5000:



There has been no push to ban guns. That just isn't true. There has been a push to restrict access to certain weapons and make it more difficult to buy guns, but a ban is a misnomer.


Restrictions and making it more difficult to purchase are the first steps towards an outright ban. Wet day in Fort Walton Beach today.
Quoting 76. Naga5000:



Nothing, a tiny blip even if Maunder Minimum were to happen.
Actually read this from Christian Science Monitor..Three studies suggest a decline in sun spots – to the point that they could largely vanish for a long period. That could lead to fewer solar storms, as well as a chance to study whether fewer sun spots leads to a cooler climate on Earth.
Quoting 80. victoria780:

Actually read this from Christian Science Monitor..Three studies suggest a decline in sun spots – to the point that they could largely vanish for a long period. That could lead to fewer solar storms, as well as a chance to study whether fewer sun spots leads to a cooler climate on Earth.
I could handle some of that. Its getting hot in Texas.
Quoting 74. victoria780:

Read a article today that said>The most oft-cited example of a shutdown in sun spots is the so-called Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period that began around 1645. Sun spots virtually vanished from the sun's surface. The decline coincided with a climate period known as the Little Ice Age, when temperatures fell substantially in various locations around the globe and different times during the time span.What would this do to climate change?


I'm not aware of any compelling evidence linking sunspots to climate change. More likely, what we today call the "Little Ice Age" was just the normal state of the climate. The Industrial Revolution began in the 18th century. And before that there was immense deforestation with the increase in population and agriculture - including clear cutting of whole forests, and the use of slash and burn techniques. I would imagine these activities were sufficient to explain the increase in temperature from the 1600s to the 1800s, in a manner that is consistent with our current understanding of global warming - although, it may suggest that the climate is more sensitive to increases in carbon dioxide than is currently implied by most GCMs.
Quoting 82. ClimateChange:



I'm not aware of any compelling evidence linking sunspots to climate change. More likely, what we today call the "Little Ice Age" was just the normal state of the climate. The Industrial Revolution began in the 18th century. And before that there was immense deforestation with the increase in population and agriculture - including clear cutting of whole forests, and the use of slash and burn techniques. I would imagine these activities were sufficient to explain the increase in temperature from the 1600s to the 1800s, consistent with our current understanding of global warming.


I guess I shouldn't give the deniers any more ammo. I'm sure I'll just invite some denier comments citing some apocryphal story of Vikings growing grapes in Greenland in the 1000s. Deniers don't believe in climate change, but they do love a good fairy tale.
Quoting 77. LargoFl:

a Waterspout in Tampa Bay earlier today............................................. .........................


Cool pix.
Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased

Solar Variability



Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.

The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.
Quoting 62. ClimateChange:



From the same newspaper that recently violated its own prohibition on publishing climate denialism. I would take this article with a big grain of salt. Paul Beckwith is a respected climate researcher, so I doubt he would sound the alarm without reason to do so. I have been warning, for some time, that I feel a climate disaster is going to occur this summer. I thought it might be the flooding in West Virginia, but I still think something even bigger is going to happen.


I'm sorry, but I'm with Washington Post and the excellent group of climate/physical meteorology researchers interviewed for this article. The claim of equatorial cross-flow as part of "climate disaster" is nonsense and an overexaggerated claim at the best. There's no wall at the equator preventing air parcels from crossing the line and these little cross-flows are actually more common than you think.

I do not deny that climate change is actually happening and we're getting warmer all the time (along with sob stories that come with the change), but what Bechwith is claiming about cross-flows is absurd.
Quoting 82. ClimateChange:



I'm not aware of any compelling evidence linking sunspots to climate change. More likely, what we today call the "Little Ice Age" was just the normal state of the climate. The Industrial Revolution began in the 18th century. And before that there was immense deforestation with the increase in population and agriculture - including clear cutting of whole forests, and the use of slash and burn techniques. I would imagine these activities were sufficient to explain the increase in temperature from the 1600s to the 1800s, consistent with our current understanding of global warming.
Indeed...Just goes to show how complex the variables are with the Earths climate.
Quoting 83. ClimateChange:



I guess I shouldn't give the deniers any more ammo. I'm sure I'll just invite some denier comments citing some apocryphal story of Vikings growing grapes in Greenland in the 1000s. Deniers don't believe in climate change, but they do love a good fairy tale.
And are devout believers in them.
classic inverted V...western atlantic mdr
Quoting 52. BobHenson:



I'm not a regular lecturer, though I've given a number of talks to various groups & the general public. Glad you're enjoying the blog!


You probably ought to consider doing a Coursera Course in conjunction with a University. I know if I had the time, (I don't I am taking Harvards CS50 on EDx, Udemy Excel along with Udacity Statistics and Khan Academy Calculus) I would take it.

Cheers
Qazulight
92. IDTH

Quoting 90. islander101010:

classic inverted V...western atlantic mdr
Quoting 86. Bluestorm5:



I'm sorry, but I'm with Washington Post and the excellent group of climate/physical meteorology researchers interviewed for this article. The claim of equatorial cross-flow as part of "climate disaster" is nonsense and an overexaggerated claim at the best. There's no wall at the equator preventing air parcels from crossing the line and these little cross-flows are actually more common than you think.

I do not deny that climate change is actually happening and we're getting warmer all the time (along with sob stories that come with the change), but what Bechwith is claiming about cross-flows is absurd.


Unfortunately, I cannot access the article anymore due to the paywall as I've exceeded the number of allowable free visits. However, I seem to recall such climate [sarc] luminaries [/sarc] as Roy Spencer, Cliff Mass, and some other noted contrarians. Typical false balance reporting. It's definitely something that deserves further study.
Quoting 79. 69Viking:



Restrictions and making it more difficult to purchase are the first steps towards an outright ban. Wet day in Fort Walton Beach today.

The American government at least can't ban guns as it's in the constitution that we have a right to bear arms. Anyways I'm not going to get into hat debate Amy further. Currently in the weather world it's another dry day here as it has been for several weeks. Were currently in the abnormally dry classification according to the CPC so we need rain.
I've published a blog discussing the likely tropical cyclone outbreak in the East Pacific next week:

Link
Quoting 13. luvtogolf:



Hard to believe anyone that uses a back scratcher as his pointer in the video.

"just a step to the left"
Quoting 92. IDTH:



Translation?
Average date of aphelion (greatest distance from the sun) for the Earth is July 4 th, Will the northern hemisphere keep getting warmer as the average date for aphelion will move to July 5th, 6th, 7th and so on? Is there anyone who knows the answer?
Quoting 94. ClimateChange:



Unfortunately, I cannot access the article anymore due to the paywall as I've exceeded the number of allowable free visits. However, I seem to recall such climate [sarc] luminaries [/sarc] as Roy Spencer, Cliff Mass, and some other noted contrarians. Typical false balance reporting. It's definitely something that deserves further study.
Let me help readers out here...

Quotes from the Jason Samenow (Capital Weather Gang) Washington Post article in question:

"This is total nonsense," said Cliff Mass, a professor of meteorology at the University of Washington. "Flow often crosses the equator."

Mass added that the cross-equator flow identified by Scribbler and Beckwith is not between mid-latitude jet streams, as claimed. "The analysis is making mistakes that even one of my junior undergrads would not make," Mass said.

"Cross-equatorial flow at both upper and lower levels is part of the seasonal transition of the Western Pacific monsoon through boreal summer," he (Ryan Maue) said.

"Sometimes the flows connect up with each other and make it look like a larger flow structure is causing the jet stream to flow from one hemisphere to the other, but it's in no way unprecedented," Roy Spencer, a professor of atmospheric science at University of Alabama-Huntsville, explained on his blog.

...even the scientist who developed the hypothesis, Jennifer Francis, a professor of meteorology at Rutgers University, suggested it had been misapplied by Scribbler and Beckwith. "I'd say cross-equator flow cannot be unprecedented, maybe not even all that unusual," she said.

"None of this is unusual," he (Sam Lillo - OU Meteorology PhD candidate) ) said. "There isn't a wall at the equator separating the two hemispheres, and air is free to flow from one side to the other."

Scribbler had cited a tweet from Lillo to support his argument of a strengthened equator-to-pole connection, but Lillo countered that the tweet referred to some unusual behavior of a phenomenon known as the QBO or Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, which is "a separate story" from the cross-equator flow. The QBO, he said, is an oscillation in equatorial stratospheric winds, which has been "out of phase." He chalked up the weird QBO behavior to natural variability "even though I'm an advocate for identifying connections to human-caused climate change."

There now.
Ps. Fairy Tales: Stories of human truth, wisdom, love and happy landings anyone can believe - if s/he wants to. Or not.
Quoting 99. NoobDave:

Average date of aphelion (greatest distance from the sun) for the Earth is July 4 th, Will the northern hemisphere keep getting warmer as the average date for aphelion will move to July 5th, 6th, 7th and so on? Is there anyone who knows the answer?




The sunlight will be decreasing, but there will be enough to drive up temperatures until October, since sea water gains/loses heat slower than ajr.
103. 882MB
94E is now starting to get its act together. You can see outflow establishing, unlike yesterday. Its already a low pressure, but its tightening its circulation. Its evident in the loop below that system will become a storm and I believe it will be a very beautiful storm to track, with those very favorable conditions ahead. Check out this link below also, for a better, and closer view of 94E.

Link



Quoting 98. washingtonian115:

Translation?


That tweet appears to be a PhD level discussion about tropical cyclonegenesis involving the fact CCKW/MJO is overlapping each other in the Pacific. I think they're trying to figure out whether a Kelvin wave or a MJO passage (or even both) is leading to the creation of possible cyclones in EPAC. I'm sure someone can provide a simpler and/or longer explanation about this subject (or correct me).

Maybe TA13?
Slight risk of severe weather here in NC. Storm are expected later tonight but cumulonimbus clouds are forming. Anyone else going to be effected?
Quoting 100. Barefootontherocks:

Let me help readers out here...

Quotes from the Jason Samenow (Capital Weather Gang) Washington Post article in question:

"This is total nonsense," said Cliff Mass, a professor of meteorology at the University of Washington. "Flow often crosses the equator."

Mass added that the cross-equator flow identified by Scribbler and Beckwith is not between mid-latitude jet streams, as claimed. "The analysis is making mistakes that even one of my junior undergrads would not make," Mass said.

"Cross-equatorial flow at both upper and lower levels is part of the seasonal transition of the Western Pacific monsoon through boreal summer," he (Ryan Maue) said.

"Sometimes the flows connect up with each other and make it look like a larger flow structure is causing the jet stream to flow from one hemisphere to the other, but it's in no way unprecedented," Roy Spencer, a professor of atmospheric science at University of Alabama-Huntsville, explained on his blog.

...even the scientist who developed the hypothesis, Jennifer Francis, a professor of meteorology at Rutgers University, suggested it had been misapplied by Scribbler and Beckwith. "I'd say cross-equator flow cannot be unprecedented, maybe not even all that unusual," she said.

"None of this is unusual," he (Sam Lillo - OU Meteorology PhD candidate) ) said. "There isn't a wall at the equator separating the two hemispheres, and air is free to flow from one side to the other."

Scribbler had cited a tweet from Lillo to support his argument of a strengthened equator-to-pole connection, but Lillo countered that the tweet referred to some unusual behavior of a phenomenon known as the QBO or Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, which is "a separate story" from the cross-equator flow. The QBO, he said, is an oscillation in equatorial stratospheric winds, which has been "out of phase." He chalked up the weird QBO behavior to natural variability "even though I'm an advocate for identifying connections to human-caused climate change."

There now.
Nice job putting all the toothpicks back in the box in short order..+++..:)

Quoting 102. tigerdeF:




The sunlight will be decreasing, but there will be enough to drive up temperatures until October, since sea water gains/loses heat slower than ajr.


Thanks for the reply. I am most interested in what effect it will have on ocean temperatures in the northern hemisphere during tropical cyclone season. Aphelion is moving away from the summer solstice, so I guess the SSTs should be increasing as the oceans will absorb greater amount of sunlight during peak days...but the warmest months are July and August is most likely second, so I am puzzled.
Quoting 104. Bluestorm5:



That tweet appears to be a PhD level discussion about tropical cyclonegenesis involving the fact CCKW/MJO is overlapping each other in the Pacific. I think they're trying to figure out whether a Kelvin wave or a MJO passage (or even both) is leading to the creation of possible cyclones in EPAC. I'm sure someone can provide a simpler and/or longer explanation about this subject (or correct me).

Maybe TA13?

They're discussing whether the wave passing across the Pacific is just a CCKW or one superimposed with an MJO signal. I tend to agree with the latter.
Quoting 108. TropicalAnalystwx13:


They're discussing whether the wave passing across the Pacific is just a CCKW or one superimposed with an MJO signal. I tend to agree with the latter.


Agree. It appears both CCKW and a favorable MJO signal is in the place over the Pacific.
Quoting 100. Barefootontherocks:

Let me help readers out here...

Quotes from the Jason Samenow (Capital Weather Gang) Washington Post article in question:

"This is total nonsense," said Cliff Mass, a professor of meteorology at the University of Washington. "Flow often crosses the equator."

Mass added that the cross-equator flow identified by Scribbler and Beckwith is not between mid-latitude jet streams, as claimed. "The analysis is making mistakes that even one of my junior undergrads would not make," Mass said.

"Cross-equatorial flow at both upper and lower levels is part of the seasonal transition of the Western Pacific monsoon through boreal summer," he (Ryan Maue) said.

"Sometimes the flows connect up with each other and make it look like a larger flow structure is causing the jet stream to flow from one hemisphere to the other, but it's in no way unprecedented," Roy Spencer, a professor of atmospheric science at University of Alabama-Huntsville, explained on his blog.

...even the scientist who developed the hypothesis, Jennifer Francis, a professor of meteorology at Rutgers University, suggested it had been misapplied by Scribbler and Beckwith. "I'd say cross-equator flow cannot be unprecedented, maybe not even all that unusual," she said.

"None of this is unusual," he (Sam Lillo - OU Meteorology PhD candidate) ) said. "There isn't a wall at the equator separating the two hemispheres, and air is free to flow from one side to the other."

Scribbler had cited a tweet from Lillo to support his argument of a strengthened equator-to-pole connection, but Lillo countered that the tweet referred to some unusual behavior of a phenomenon known as the QBO or Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, which is "a separate story" from the cross-equator flow. The QBO, he said, is an oscillation in equatorial stratospheric winds, which has been "out of phase." He chalked up the weird QBO behavior to natural variability "even though I'm an advocate for identifying connections to human-caused climate change."

There now.

I really wish people would not make hype out of this event because this is Anti-AGW gold. I can already hear them saying "See alarmists are always making hype out of everyday events so why should we believe anything they say."
We are doom!

When do you think we will see Earl form?
A. Between July 1 and 10
B. Between July 11 and 20
C. Between July 21 and 31
D. Between August 1 and 10
E. August 11 or later
Quoting 90. islander101010:

classic inverted V...western atlantic mdr


Forgive my ignorance, but what is the significance of an inverted V?
Quoting 110. MrTornadochase:


I really wish people would not make hype out of this event because this is Anti-AGW gold. I can already hear them saying "See alarmists are always making hype out of everyday events so why should we believe anything they say."
Not everything about gold is positive, and it does lose its value.....Especially when people know what is true and whats not..Many folks have deaf ears when it comes to B.S.
Quoting 107. NoobDave:


Thanks for the reply. I am most interested in what effect it will have on ocean temperatures in the northern hemisphere during tropical cyclone season. Aphelion is moving away from the summer solstice, so I guess the SSTs should be increasing as the oceans will absorb greater amount of sunlight during peak days...but the warmest months are July and August is most likely second, so I am puzzled.

Either way, it'll take thousands of years to change much. The earth as a whole is very slowly slowing it's rotation due to tidal forces, which will make all of the seasons longer. I just did a search and found that for my location, aphelion is 7/4 in 2016, 7/3 in 2017, 7/6 in 2018, 7/4 in 2019, and 7/4 in 2020. I don't see how that is moving away from the summer solstice. http://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/perihelion-ap helion-solstice.html
Quoting 114. hydrus:

Not everything about gold is positive, and it does lose its value.....Especially when people know what is true and whats not..Many folks have deaf ears when it comes to B.S.

True but there are also those who have deaf ears to the truth and I don't want anything they could use to convince would be believers into deniers.
Quoting 113. gunhilda:



Forgive my ignorance, but what is the significance of an inverted V?
The windshift associated with a tropical wave resembles an upsidedown V on visible satellite pics...So it is sometimes described as an inverted V.
The 18z GFS broke all continuity it had for a Category 4+ hurricane and now shows 94E peaking as a minimal tropical storm. The ECMWF also showed a lower-end tropical storm this run. Models will struggle until we have a singular, organized area of vorticity to latch onto. I definitely think we'll see at least a hurricane, however.

120. IDTH
Quoting 119. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 18z GFS broke all continuity it had for a Category 4+ hurricane and now shows 94E peaking as a minimal tropical storm. The ECMWF also showed a lower-end tropical storm this run. Models will struggle until we have a singular, organized area of vorticity to latch onto. I definitely think we'll see at least a hurricane, however.



The GFS has had a reputation of doing this a lot this year, the euro not so much. I do agree, until there is an organized area of vorticity, the models will continue to struggle.


The latest gfs run shows a much weaker system with the first one with a pressure of 974 and the second one with 973. I would put both at a category two and maybe a low end category three.
122. IDTH
Interesting



Quoting 94. ClimateChange:



Unfortunately, I cannot access the article anymore due to the paywall as I've exceeded the number of allowable free visits. However, I seem to recall such climate [sarc] luminaries [/sarc] as Roy Spencer, Cliff Mass, and some other noted contrarians. Typical false balance reporting. It's definitely something that deserves further study.


Here is an archive of the WAPO article:

http://archive.is/z0tum

I'm not endorsing the article; I think it is the end of the world.

Also, sometimes you can try a different browser to get through some soft paywalls.


The EMCWF shows a stronger storm with a pressure of 968 millibars. That would probably be a category 3.
How do I post a GIF?
Quoting 111. Grothar:

We are doom!





Said Earth to her fellow planets about us.
Quoting 110. MrTornadochase:


I really wish people would not make hype out of this event because this is Anti-AGW gold. I can already hear them saying "See alarmists are always making hype out of everyday events so why should we believe anything they say."
Yes. In the conclusion to the Washington Post article under discussion, the writer, Jason Samenow, lamented the Scribbler/Beckwith blog piece had gone viral because an incident like this "damages the reputation of science when ultimately shown to be flawed" He further states, "Examples like this demonstrate the pitfalls of extraordinary claims posted on blogs and the importance of consuming science that has been vetted and peer-reviewed."

Edit: link fixed
Quoting 106. hydrus:

Nice job putting all the toothpicks back in the box in short order..+++..:)


Now if only barefoot would apply the same type of critique to his/her usual sources. :P

To clarify, the absurd claim about cross-equatorial flows was not in a peer-reviewed science journal. It was on a blog written by two individuals who don't really have much in the way of credentials when it comes to climate science. I'm not sure why such nonsense went "viral", but anyone with a passing knowledge of meteorology would find their claims to be questionable at best.

I won't bother going into a detailed debunking since the CWG did a good job with that, but in short this is an example of bad science.

Perhaps this was done as a tongue in cheek exercise, since deniers often use the same type shenanigans to push their nonsense? Regardless, this is why you go to peer-reviewed articles and not random internet blogs for information (unless those blogs include citations to peer-reviewed sources).

If anything, this is a perfect counter-example to all those deniers who claim that science journals just rubber stamp anything related to global warming.
129. IDTH
Another effect of this kelvin wave and the mjo is the weakening trades across the equatorial pacific, which will cause the waters to warm across some of the nino regions. This is not permanent but rather slowing down the progression of the upcoming possible la nina.

Quoting 116. auspiv:

Either way, it'll take thousands of years to change much. The earth as a whole is very slowly slowing it's rotation due to tidal forces, which will make all of the seasons longer. I just did a search and found that for my location, aphelion is 7/4 in 2016, 7/3 in 2017, 7/6 in 2018, 7/4 in 2019, and 7/4 in 2020. I don't see how that is moving away from the summer solstice. http://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/perihelion-ap helion-solstice.html


It isn't as we have a leap year like this one as a year is still 365.25 days last I checked.





Quoting 111. Grothar:

We are doom!




Don't make presumptions so quickly, Grothar. It could be a dud storm that never forms. wE'll have to wiat and see.
Quoting 131. birdsrock2016:




Don't make presumptions so quickly, Grothar. It could be a dud storm that never forms. wE'll have to wiat and see.


Also, if it does form, where is it heading for?
Quoting 132. birdsrock2016:



Also, if it does form, where is it heading for?

Your house.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 30 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for a tropical depression to form
during the next several days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

2. A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing disorganized shower activity. Development,
if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to only
marginally favorable environmental conditions while the system
moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Pasch
Quoting 134. GeoffreyWPB:



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 30 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for a tropical depression to form
during the next several days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

2. A weak low pressure system located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing disorganized shower activity. Development,
if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur due to only
marginally favorable environmental conditions while the system
moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Pasch



Nothing new since 2pm
Quoting 133. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Your house.


Perfect!
Ian Livingston
‏@islivingston
It's so boring. We need a hurricane or something. #summa

George Matovu ‏@GeorgeMatovu
@islivingston Maybe Hurricane Ian will do something interesting here.
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston
@GeorgeMatovu hopefully tho these early crap storms may have messed it up.

Ian from CWG making fun of the situation since his name will be on this years hurricane list.
Quoting 79. 69Viking:



Restrictions and making it more difficult to purchase are the first steps towards an outright ban. Wet day in Fort Walton Beach today.


That's one slippery slope, you already have restrictions on which weapons you can legally buy and hurdles to purchase. Next thing you'll tell me is registering cars is just one step away from taking them away. Save the conspiracy for other places. There is no gun ban, there is no outright ban coming, if you don't see how impossible that is (logistically, because there is about 250 million guns in the U.S., a ban would be both difficult and meaningless and legally, since it would require a constitutional amendment), then you need a refresher on civics.

Back to the climate. WAPO was most likely correct here, Scribbler got it wrong.
Quoting 133. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Your house.


Have you seen our house?

Or the 2016 main blog anthem.

I don't know about you guys but I am ready to see a EPAC major that spins off harmless, kick the season off.
Quoting 128. Xyrus2000:



Now if only barefoot would apply the same type of critique to his/her usual sources. :P

To clarify, the absurd claim about cross-equatorial flows was not in a peer-reviewed science journal. It was on a blog written by two individuals who don't really have much in the way of credentials when it comes to climate science. I'm not sure why such nonsense went "viral", but anyone with a passing knowledge of meteorology would find their claims to be questionable at best.

I won't bother going into a detailed debunking since the CWG did a good job with that, but in short this is an example of bad science.

Perhaps this was done as a tongue in cheek exercise, since deniers often use the same type shenanigans to push their nonsense? Regardless, this is why you go to peer-reviewed articles and not random internet blogs for information (unless those blogs include citations to peer-reviewed sources).

If anything, this is a perfect counter-example to all those deniers who claim that science journals just rubber stamp anything related to global warming.
(Fortunately) I am the one who brought this (what I bolded in your comment) to light here this afternoon. Another poster here with the handle "ClimateChange" criticized the WAPO article because it corrected the bad science being pushed by Scribbler/Beckwith. That poster also criticized the sources used in the (WAPO) article. All I did was go find the article and post quotes from it. You might wanna go tell old Scribbler and Beckwith your troubles as I have nothing to do with causing them. Like "The War of the Worlds" with far-reaching impact? Yes. I doubt they did this tongue-in-cheek. If they did, they caused far more harm than good.

I have not ever brought a bad source to this blog and I won't ever. I have worked as a journalist. I understand and praise good journalism. I understand science, scientific study, statistics and data manipulation. I criticize poor journalism and outrageous claims that are not scientifically correct. Most often, you and your pals jump on me because of what you think I think. Perhaps in the future you will read my comments more clearly "."
We are in the doldrums in the Atlantic currently, right on cue..

Quoting 106. hydrus:

Nice job putting all the toothpicks back in the box in short order..+++..:)
Thank you.
I met a NOAA P3 Orion pilot who made a HH run on Patricia last year and we had a 10 min conversation on that experience. The 2016 Hurricane Awareness tour stopped here in May.

Had to wait for the Admiral to finish talking.

The pilot is to the left of the Admiral.

Wow, being sarcastic.

Looking to the mid Pacific there is currently a large Kelvin wave, outlined in blue.. It's forecast July 2 for that area to gain some MJO in the middle of it (black). For July 3rd look a little more east..coming to the party (in red) is an equatorial Rossby Wave. Maybe it's all three, that has the models going off on July 4th in the East Pacific. Click graphic to make bigger.
Shear is best we've witnessed in a long time. Think the thin ribbon of mid level dry air that has been observed again and again will be a contender this year.

148. beell
From the beell archive back when the GFS was spinning up the ghost storm-but ultimately, all of that tranferred into the EPAC. Two cents on the cross equatorial flow. It happens...

415. beell
11:17 AM GMT on June 21, 2016



I do think a case could be made for a favorable synoptic environment in the SW Caribbean coincident with the wave's arrival towards the beginning of next week
. Obviously, this would increase the chances of development.

There appears to be some decent (modeled) cross-equatorial flow off the South American continent invigorating the monsoon trough. Enough to add some curvature (vorticity) prior to the wave. Strong easterly trades along the southern edge of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge (poking all the way into the western gulf) along with the monsoon trough may ramp up convergence over the area.

Subsequent convection may explain the pre-existing (??), persistent mid-level vorticity that might not exist (at that level) with "just a wave". Maybe

Add wave, mix well.



06/21 06Z GFS 700 mb heights, rh @ 162 hrs

Quoting 128. Xyrus2000:



Now if only barefoot would apply the same type of critique to his/her usual sources. :P

To clarify, the absurd claim about cross-equatorial flows was not in a peer-reviewed science journal. It was on a blog written by two individuals who don't really have much in the way of credentials when it comes to climate science. I'm not sure why such nonsense went "viral", but anyone with a passing knowledge of meteorology would find their claims to be questionable at best.

I won't bother going into a detailed debunking since the CWG did a good job with that, but in short this is an example of bad science.

Perhaps this was done as a tongue in cheek exercise, since deniers often use the same type shenanigans to push their nonsense? Regardless, this is why you go to peer-reviewed articles and not random internet blogs for information (unless those blogs include citations to peer-reviewed sources).

If anything, this is a perfect counter-example to all those deniers who claim that science journals just rubber stamp anything related to global warming.
Howdy Xyrus. I was aiming more toward the long and sharp kinks in the temperate latitude jet stream bringing cold air directly south into the cross equatorial flow. This type of pattern happens more often now, creating upper level low pressure areas that produce very prolific and intense tornado outbreaks like the 2011 Super Outbreak. I was trying to focus on the particular set up, not the issue of a shifting climate. This is difficult for me to do when i,m swamped....I did my best.
Quoting 145. ProgressivePulse:

Wow, being sarcastic.



been that way since 2010.. lack of instability has plagued the atlantic for most of this decade minus 2010. Shear and SSTs might be warm but lack of instability certainly doesn't help.
Quoting 148. beell:

From the beell archive back when the GFS was spinning up the ghost storm-but ultimately, all of that tranferred into the EPAC. Two cents on the cross equatorial flow. It happens...

415. beell
11:17 AM GMT on June 21, 2016



I do think a case could be made for a favorable synoptic environment in the SW Caribbean coincident with the wave's arrival towards the beginning of next week
. Obviously, this would increase the chances of development.

There appears to be some decent (modeled) cross-equatorial flow off the South American continent invigorating the monsoon trough. Enough to add some curvature (vorticity) prior to the wave. Strong easterly trades along the southern edge of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge (poking all the way into the western gulf) along with the monsoon trough may ramp up convergence over the area.

Subsequent convection may explain the pre-existing (??), persistent mid-level vorticity that might not exist (at that level) with "just a wave". Maybe

Add wave, mix well.



06/21 06Z GFS 700 mb heights, rh @ 162 hrs


This is more in line with what I was trying to state in my previous posts.......Thank you Beell...:)
Lowes is up.

Buy some.

4th of July Market fireworks special.
Quoting 103. 882MB:

94E is now starting to get its act together. You can see outflow establishing, unlike yesterday. Its already a low pressure, but its tightening its circulation. Its evident in the loop below that system will become a storm and I believe it will be a very beautiful storm to track, with those very favorable conditions ahead. Check out this link below also, for a better, and closer view of 94E.

Link





The reason for the lack of moisture in the Atlantic right now is because we are i a downward phase of the MJO and there is currently a dust outbreak occurring.
Quoting 91. Qazulight:



You probably ought to consider doing a Coursera Course in conjunction with a University. I know if I had the time, (I don't I am taking Harvards CS50 on EDx, Udemy Excel along with Udacity Statistics and Khan Academy Calculus) I would take it.

Cheers
Qazulight
That is impressive. How do you even find time to drive your mini cooper?
Quoting 155. washingtonian115:

The reason for the lack of moisture in the Atlantic right now is because we are i a downward phase of the MJO and there is currently a dust outbreak occurring.




thats not rally a dust out break a dust out break would be when a wilder area is cover up in dust

most if not all of the MDR is dust free right now and the island area are dust free and in fact the Atlantic is looking really good this year even no there may be some dust in the area but it is not has bad has it has been in past year


so really there not a dust out break going on a dust out break would need too be call when it cover a wider area
Quoting 153. Patrap:

Lowes is up.

Buy some.

4th of July Market fireworks special.
Sounds like a good idea!
Gulf of Mexico shear running way below average...if this pattern continues watch out for a GOM monster at some point this season.
Quoting 161. HurricaneFan:

Gulf of Mexico shear running way below average...if this pattern continues watch out for a GOM monster at some point this season.



I hope not. SOuth Florida does not need a Monster storm like wilma.
Quoting 161. HurricaneFan:

Gulf of Mexico shear running way below average...if this pattern continues watch out for a GOM monster at some point this season.

Birdsrock !!!!! You old buzzard !!!! HaHaHaHa !!!!
It's got that healthy look... (94E)

Quoting 164. 999Ai2016:

It's got that healthy look... (94E)




the NHC is being way too nic on 94E am looking at a big upgrade on % at 2am up too a high 80% for the next two and in fact i think 94E is all ready a TD right now
Quoting 155. washingtonian115:

The reason for the lack of moisture in the Atlantic right now is because we are i a downward phase of the MJO and there is currently a dust outbreak occurring.



Even though MJO is unfavorable, SAL outbreak is pretty typical at this time of year.
I don't remember the resistance to downburst theory described in Dr Masters post. One hit the golf course I was working at in summer 1978, just plunged out of a thunderstorm at the west end of the course, hit the ground spread out and flattened a lot of trees. It was already well known what had happened, not just a thunderstorm with wind but a cold blob that came out of the cloud, hit the ground and spread out. I first read a detailed description of the hazard to aircraft in National Geographic in 1976 and it appeared to be accepted theory then. However I was only in high school and would not have seen what was going on in research labs and at conferences.
Quoting 156. Llamaluvr:

That is impressive. How do you even find time to drive your mini cooper?


No kids, wife only visits part of the year.
Quoting 91. Qazulight:



You probably ought to consider doing a Coursera Course in conjunction with a University. I know if I had the time, (I don't I am taking Harvards CS50 on EDx, Udemy Excel along with Udacity Statistics and Khan Academy Calculus) I would take it.

Cheers
Qazulight


Ah the ol' Harvard CS50.

I also recommend MIT's EDx and Open Courseware (Open Courseware is broad but sort of an information dump - although some interesting meteorological stuff is there) and UCAR MetEd.

So much to learn and never enough time.



Yes, Florida got hit several times back in 04.
Quoting 170. HurriHistory:



Yes, Florida got hit several times back in 04.


And 2005...
Interesting little thunderstorm we had in Anchorage. I don't hear thunder here that often. When I walked outside right before it started, I saw a bald eagle perched on a tree outside my front door (and in my neighbors back yard!). Pretty cool seeing these huge birds.

Was 68.2/92.7 here today and we are out of the DOOM Cycle.

This is the 10 day forecast for Indian Hills PWS, well most of it WUWT.
Glad to hear it ped... Been cooling off a little here too.
Quoting 174. Dakster:

Glad to hear it ped... Been cooling off a little here too.


Kind of worried about those 2 missing days, is that some kind of a BAD OMEN....lol
Alien are going to land... I wouldn't worry about it.
Quoting 176. Dakster:

Alien are going to land... I wouldn't worry about it.


I will only worry about it if they are missing going forward..
the NHC is being way too nic on the % right now it should have been bump up too at lest a high 70% but 30% is way too low

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUN 30 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for a tropical depression to form
during the next several days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

i say dos this look disorganized? too you ? i wounder what the NHC is seeing has disorganized that where not ?

i say that we have TD 2E right now from 94E this is a well organized storm


The 0z GFS doesn't even develop Invest 94E now--this is after over 10 runs of showing a Category 4 or 5 hurricane.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Quoting 179. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 0z GFS doesn't even develop Invest 94E now--this is after over 10 runs of showing a Category 4 or 5 hurricane.

\_(%u30C4)_/




then the GFS gets toss in too the out liner bin
Quoting 74. victoria780:

Read a article today that said>The most oft-cited example of a shutdown in sun spots is the so-called Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period that began around 1645. Sun spots virtually vanished from the sun's surface. The decline coincided with a climate period known as the Little Ice Age, when temperatures fell substantially in various locations around the globe and different times during the time span.What would this do to climate change?

The current thinking is that the Little Ice Age was largely cause by a series of large volcanic eruptions from 1275 to 1300 and then again from 1430-1455. This caused an increase in sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere which increased albedo. The Maunder Minimum and other low solar activity periods helped it along a bit but weren't by themselves enough to cause the LIA.

So even if the Sun goes into another Maunder Minimum type period it's only going to slow down the warming slightly unless of course we get another series of major volcanic eruptions.

Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks
I think that Figure 5 of this blog is photoshopped: How come the Sun/Moon is so white in it!?
184. SLU
Quoting 179. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 0z GFS doesn't even develop Invest 94E now--this is after over 10 runs of showing a Category 4 or 5 hurricane.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯




This is one of the reasons why the GFS is rapidly losing respect among the international meteorological community.
sorry the "ne pac" aint working. its up by calif & canada. its the epac and there no doubt thats where the Mojo currently resides.
186. MahFL
Quoting 113. gunhilda:



Forgive my ignorance, but what is the significance of an inverted V?


They can be the predecessor of a wave turning into a tropical depression. Not all waves of course turn into storms.
floridas been on the lucky side for decades. andrew? if he came onshore 30 miles more north history would be different. charlie same if it moved more north like forecasted tampa would of been rearranged. francsis if she did not turn north into the northern bahamas instead continue wnw towards s florida she could of rewrote florida history books. wilma too. if she did not wear herself out partying in cancuun mex. she would of smashed naples as a cat 5. yea florida has been lucky.
inverted V helps a system develop. it can protect a developing vortex from dry air.
It appears that the MDR may have it's first invest 95L. The area of disturbed weather is associated with a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic near 35W.
190. MahFL
Quoting 170. HurriHistory:



Yes, Florida got hit several times back in 04.


We lost power 2 times in 2004, once for 6 hours and once for 18 hours, had to have a luke warm shower and go to work, my wife went to the mall for some a/c, as they still had power.
Ghost town in the Atlantic via GFS up to the 17th of July. Shows EPAC hurricane party going nuts. At least 3
Good Morning Folks; yes, the E-Pac looks like it is finally starting to come to life:



193. JRRP7
the old Constantly Making Cyclone model is showing a TC near Antilles

Turning to Conus, here is the forecast for today and drought monitor from yesterday: the drought is getting worse in California and the SW in recent weeks:




Current U.S. Drought Monitor
Quoting 162. birdsrock2016:



I hope not. SOuth Florida does not need a Monster storm like wilma.
Why?
Quoting 184. SLU:



This is one of the reasons why the GFS is rapidly losing respect among the international meteorological community.
Seems the upward phase we were expecting is propagating eastward more slowly than the GFS anticipated... so we get our big 4th of July storm, just not where expected.
I see the Scribbler article debate has reached here.

This is the second time this year that something he's written that's been wrong has gone viral. The problem is he uses the Earth Nullschool map, which isn't always accurate.

He corrected himself with the first thing he wrote that was wrong, we'll see if he does with the second. But from now on anything I see he says I'm going fact-check with someone else.
interesting gfs latches on the 6 degree spin in the ITZ. gfs brings it rapidly wnw out of the deep tropics. i doubt it turns into anything more than a bunch of showers for the NE islands..
A new study was published this past week on the Atlantic circulation (AMOC issues) and past rapid climate fluctuations based on ice core samples; posting the text for the link (I cannot post links from this computer) and a small section related to the study; very interesting stuff. We have to rely on sediment cores to get a handle on past climate changes but are witnessing the current warming in real time:
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/06/crip pled-atlantic-conveyor-triggered-ice-age-climate-c hange

The last ice age wasn’t one long big chill. Dozens of times temperatures abruptly rose or fell, causing all manner of ecological change. Mysteriously, ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show that these sudden shifts—which occurred every 1500 years or so—were out of sync in the two hemispheres: When it got cold in the north, it grew warm in the south, and vice versa. Now, scientists have implicated the culprit behind those seesaws—changes to a conveyor belt of ocean currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

These currents, which today drive the Gulf Stream, bring warm surface waters north and send cold, deeper waters south. But they weakened suddenly and drastically, nearly to the point of stopping, just before several periods of abrupt climate change, researchers report today inScience. In a matter of decades, temperatures plummeted in the north, as the currents brought less warmth in that direction. Meanwhile, the backlog of warm, southern waters allowed the Southern Hemisphere to heat up.

AMOC slowdowns have long been suspected as the cause of the climate swings during the last ice age, which lasted from 110,000 to 15,000 years ago, but never definitively shown. The new study “is the best demonstration that this indeed happened,” says Jerry McManus, a paleo-oceanographer at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, and a study author. “It is very convincing evidence,” adds Andreas Schmittner, a climate scientist at Oregon State University, Corvallis. “We did not know that the circulation changed during these shorter intervals.”

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nd s/wg8shr.GIF

The GFS shows hurricane with a pressure of 941 and another one with 955 with third one at 984.
Quoting 202. Chicklit:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/wi nd s/wg8shr.GIF



Favorable in some areas and unfavorable in others. Pretty common for July.
The Atlantic may have wracked up a few named storms, but the Eastern Pacific is about to bring home the bacon:

Quoting 160. Patrap:



Larger image

June 30, 2016
Hubble Captures Vivid Auroras in Jupiter%u2019s Atmosphere


And I suppose AGW is responsible for THIS too! (jk)



HAPPY FRIDAY!!!


Normal
0


false
false
false








MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

I apologise for the formatting - do not seem to have understanding of the WUG editor.


"...in the realm of general aviation (all civilian flights outside of scheduled passenger service),wind shear remains a deadly threat, because most of those flights involve smaller aircraft and airports that lack the means of detecting wind shear.."
 

Actually, it is the difference in aircraft characteristics which gives the relatively low rate of wind shear induced accidents in general aviation [GA] compared with airliners.

GA planes are much smaller than airliners and thus have much less inertial mass so respond more rapidly to changes in commanded changes in flight path - think sports car vs. semi-truck.

In addition virtually all GA planes are powered by reciprocating engines driving propellers which can change thrust rapidly, rather than by turbine reaction engines which take, what can seem an eternity, to spool up when more power is needed.


Surprisingly unmentioned in this article is the 1985 DFW Delta 191 L-1011 TriStar microburst crash which is what really brought microbursts to the attention of the aviation world (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=delta191).

It was seeing the NTSB (I believe) produced computer video of the TriStar, constructed from an in-trail point-of-view from above showing the aircraft's flight path and attitude changes synched to the CVR which raised the hair of any pilot who saw it. It was nightmarish as it was so obvious that the pilots were well screwed together, making - on the basis of the knowledge and training of the time - reasonable decisions on a difficult approach, decisions that you could have made yourself.

As a final result of close study of this accident, the microburst escape drill is now known to basically be TOGA: Firewall Thrust; Nose up at the first sign of unanticipated significant shear.

Unprepared with this knowledge, the pilots of 191 - PIC Connors, FO Price, FE Nassick - nearly pulled this off. Their actions did save the lives of some of the passengers, when panic would have killed them all.

I cannot find the NTSB video, but here is a clip of the disaster which does show how  the changes in lift caused by changes in airflow over the wings caused the aircraft to deviate from the desired descent path (the glideslope - shown as a dashed line on the video) and how slowly airliners respond to commanded changes in attitude and thrust and starts to lose roll control as the ailerons start to stall. ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKwyU1RwPto

Ironical, and a source of dark amusement to pilots in the love/hate relationship between aviator and ATC, is Tower's command to break off the approach and go-around --- issued after the aircraft has impacted the ground.






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This image paints a completely different picture about the system in the Pacific. One strong system and no others at 18 hours.
Sorry, I meant to type 180 hours.
My two comments did not show up.
Sorry, I meant to type 180 hours.
Why are my comments not showing up?
Quoting 212. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Why are my comments not showing up?

I can assure you they do show up ! Personally, I nearly always have to reload the page once or twice before my new comment appears...I guess it may have something to do with my browser's prefs and the website's not perfectly getting along together.

yeesh..
215. IDTH

Quoting 165. Tazmanian:



the NHC is being way too nic on 94E am looking at a big upgrade on % at 2am up too a high 80% for the next two and in fact i think 94E is all ready a TD right now


It's already better organized than any storm we have had in the GOM so far, excluding Alex in the Atalntic.
GFS tries to develop a weak tropical low from a front
Quoting 217. washingtonian115:

GFS tries to develop a weak tropical low from a front



What's the shear in the Atlantic right now?
Did you ever notice that news commentators cannot complete a sentence without saying, "..at the end of the day, that being said, or vet" at least 5 times? Having said that, :) what do you think of 94E? We'll have to vet this one carefully.



Quoting 218. birdsrock2016:



What's the shear in the Atlantic right now?


Look at post #202
That AMOC study on ice age fluctuations is very interesting in that we are currently in a rapid warming phase (the opposite pattern). As such, while the northern hemisphere grew colder, with the southern one getting warmer, pursuant to this ice age study, currently we are seeing warming in the north (and particularly in the mid-latitudes and arctic regions) while some studies have suggested some ice gains in parts of Antarctica which some point to as evidence of no global warming. Seems pretty clear to me that a warming phase might reverse past cooling phase patterns across the earth and that the current north Atlantic cold pool off of Greenland, the pile-up of warmer Gulf Stream waters off the East Coast of the US, and some studies suggesting that the AMOC is slowing down again, is a good indicator of the correlation between the AMOC and climate change (whether a cooling or warming phase)




Quoting 220. Bucsboltsfan:



Look at post #202


Thsnk you, Bucsboltsfan.
Quoting 219. Grothar:

Did you ever notice that news commentators cannot complete a sentence without saying, "..at the end of the day, that being said, or vet" at least 5 times? Having said that, :) what do you think of 94E? We'll have to vet this one carefully.






Buzz words ...every profession has them ...I find them to get annoying
*Sigh*, The Atlantic is not active right now. Guess i'll have to wait until August.
Quoting 216. birdsrock2016:



It's already better organized than any storm we have had in the GOM so far, excluding Alex in the Atalntic.
Agreed. This is EXACTLY what TROPICALCYCLONEALERT has been saying (repeatedly).

Far out, most likely a ghost storm, but the GFS has a TD forming north of the Bahamas on July 9th...but by this point the MJO will be in the Atlantic so we may have to watch future runs
Quoting 219. Grothar:

Did you ever notice that news commentators cannot complete a sentence without saying, "..at the end of the day, that being said, or vet" at least 5 times? Having said that, :) what do you think of 94E? We'll have to vet this one carefully.

It was much more surrounded by fairly high-reaching convection towers yesterday, but there is a good amount of 850mb vorticity to it right now, it may be holding its breath... It still looks good though IMO. Evening convection might give it another boost. But I wonder : with the models forecasting around two-three tropical cyclones to emerge out of a small part of the basin, could it fade fast instead and give way to another deeper low ESE of it ? E. Pac Relat. Vorticity 850mb Link
....you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind Blow's....



Quoting 213. 999Ai2016:


I can assure you they do show up ! Personally, I nearly always have to reload the page once or twice before my new comment appears...I guess it may have something to do with my brower's prefs and the website's not perfectly getting along together.

Whatever that was going on earlier has stopped but thanks for the information.
Not much identity is seen in the dvorak loop.

Quoting 230. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Not sure if this was a mistake or your posts aren't showing up again?
Sorry if I am being repetitive, but the picture below is euro model at 192 hours.
Quoting 201. weathermanwannabe:

A new study was published this past week on the Atlantic circulation (AMOC issues) and past rapid climate fluctuations based on ice core samples; posting the text for the link (I cannot post links from this computer) and a small section related to the study; very interesting stuff. We have to rely on sediment cores to get a handle on past climate changes but are witnessing the current warming in real time. The last ice age wasn't one long big chill. Dozens of times temperatures abruptly rose or fell, causing all manner of ecological change. Mysteriously, ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show that these sudden shifts - which occurred every 1500 years or so - were out of sync in the two hemispheres: When it got cold in the north, it grew warm in the south, and vice versa. Now, scientists have implicated the culprit behind those seesaws-changes to a conveyor belt of ocean currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

Awesome article, thanks for sharing. It deserves a full link, here it is:
Crippled Atlantic currents triggered ice age climate change
It ain't no good news though, as it tends to confirm some of my worst fears/wildest expectations climate-wise...
(...) McManus says that studies looking deeper into the ice ages have found that the 1500-year climate oscillations tend not to be nearly as strong during interglacial periods. "It would suggest that this kind of thing isn't so likely to happen today," he says. On the other hand, he adds, "In most interglacials, Greenland didn't melt - and Greenland is currently melting."
Quoting 233. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Sorry if I am being repetitive, but the picture below is euro model at 192 hours.

Quoting 232. Llamaluvr:

Not sure if this was a mistake or your posts aren't showing up again?
Quoting 235. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


I believe they not showing up again.

Quoting 228. Patrap:

....you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind Blow's....






Tell that to some of our current politicians..........................

Normal is 90/62, this will be a lot easier to deal with...lol
Quoting 240. PedleyCA:


Normal is 90/62, this will be a lot easier to deal with...lol


Now you're at South Florida daytime high temps ,lol, but without the extreme humidity , which makes it feel like 105 these days.
Quoting 216. birdsrock2016:



It's already better organized than any storm we have had in the GOM so far, excluding Alex in the Atalntic.



this storm is in the E PAC so it dos not count for the Atalntic
94E - close-up at 1415 UTC :
244. JRRP7
nice wave in CATL
Quoting 209. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Sorry, I meant to type 180 hours.

There's a modify comment button just below your post to edit it if you make a mistake.
And the GFS is back to showing a major hurricane out of 94E...

Quoting 241. birdsrock2016:



Now you're at South Florida daytime high temps ,lol, but without the extreme humidity , which makes it feel like 105 these days.


Yes, down to Florida daytime temps now, done with the 100's for awhile, long while I hope.
Quoting 241. birdsrock2016:



Now you're at South Florida daytime high temps ,lol, but without the extreme humidity , which makes it feel like 105 these days.


Over here in Fort Myers, Fl.

Current conditions at
Fort Myers, Page Field (KFMY)
Lat: 26.58NLon: 81.86WElev: 16ft.

A Few Clouds
90F
32C
Humidity 58%
Wind Speed W 8 mph
Barometer 30.06 in (1018.2 mb)
Dewpoint 73F (23C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 99F (37C)
Last update 1 Jul 11:53 am EDT

Our low was 76 degrees last night. That's warmer than San Diego Ca. high temperature for today,
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
As a point of clarity, neither of these devices impacted the ground - they were both air burst. About 500 or 600 meters above the ground, if I recall correctly. This would prove to be to Mr. Fujita's advantage, as a ground impact would have left mostly a large crater, whereas the airburst gave him the starburst pattern on the ground that he observed.
Quoting 238. weathermanwannabe:



Tell that to some of our current politicians..........................

Indeed..start wit Gov. Rick Scott and his climate change not to b spoken decree to State employees.

U know..keeping big gub'ment out our lives and all DAT.

Squelching climate science in a State surrounded by water on 3 sides is a bad way to govern.