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A very bad day in Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:21 PM GMT on August 19, 2007

It could have been much worse, but it is very bad for Jamaica. Hurricane Dean's northern eyewall is just offshore the southern tip of Jamaica, bringing sustained Category 2 hurricane winds to southern Jamaica. A recent wind analysis prepared by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 1) at 3:30pm EDT today shows winds of Category 1 strength (>65 knots, or 74 mph) already affecting the east end of the island. By extrapolating this wind field over the island to the west-northwest, in anticipation of Dean's track, it is apparent that perhaps 90% of the island will experience sustained winds of 74 mph or greater. At 4pm EDT, Kingston, on the southern side of the island, recorded sustained winds of 81 mph before the instrument failed. We can expect that the southern 1/3 of the island, including Kingston, will receive sustained winds of Category 2 strength--96 to 114 mph. Category 3 and higher winds will be confined to the southernmost 5% of the island, and it appears that the Category 4 winds will stay offshore. The portion of the island affected by the Category 3 winds is very sparsely populated.

Jamaica will probably suffer a billion dollars in damage from Dean, perhaps more. The high winds and rains of up to 20 inches will no doubt claim lives, though probably not nearly as many as the 45 who died during Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. Gilbert cut straight across Jamaica as a Category 3 hurricane with 125-130 mph winds, doing $4 billion in damage. Kingston measured sustained winds of 116 mph during Gilbert; I expect the top winds in Dean will be 10 mph slower than that.


Figure 1. Wind analysis of Dean at 3:30pm EDT 8/19/07. Areas in yellow mark winds of Category 1 and stronger (65kt, 74 mph). Dean was moving west-northwest, and the most intense winds (120kt, 140 mph) should stay barely south of the island. Image credit: NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.

I'll have a full update Monday morning at about 10am EDT.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. SEFL
"Posted By: HurricaneDean2007 at 1:07 PM GMT on August 20, 2007.

Just what I mean...there could be a category 4 about to become a category 5 hurricane somewhere else in the world and people don't care a rat's *** about it just because it's not going to hit the US. Unbelieveable."

Hardly unbelievable....95% of the people who come here do so to get information about storms that might affect them and that is their only interest. Why is that unbelievable? I pay attention to snow storms but don't get bent out out of shape over where they are going!!
WPBGal
Just got new HO insurance renwal...UGH!!!!!


Have you signed up with the My Safe Florida Hurricane Program? You get a free windstorm inspection which could help save on HO, plus if you need upgrades the will help with a grant.
that invest isnt too close to florida to develop. with low shear over much of the bahamas and very warm waters, this could be a problem for florida
75% Tropical Depression
70% Tropical Storm
50% Hurricane
30% Major Hurricane
Twinkster,
I saw that it just sits over FLA. Reminds me of the hell we went through with Frances when she was over us for about the same amount of time. It wasn't scary just something like chinese water torture.
100% Agree BrDennis, just not the same anymore. Back to my corner.
Posted By: extreme236 at 6:19 AM PDT on August 20, 2007.

that invest isnt too close to florida to develop. with low shear over much of the bahamas and very warm waters, this could be a problem for florida


and the gulf later on
Good morning, all! I see the LB that 'lilfish eyed yesterday indeed has become invest 92L! And, Dean is on his way to becoming a CAT 5, too!

Season, sure has ramped up, now!

Have a good day, all!
Chicklit - Try this link

Link

Another example of the great links and info I find on this board. Thanks to all of you!
I remember Frances vividly. I live in southern Palm Beach county. We were worst affected by Wilma and Frances
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

NHC Link for Newbies.
"Discussion" and "Satellite" are good to click on.
And everyone thought this year would be a bust a couple weeks ago lol. First 90L becomes Dean, 91L becomes Erin, and who knows? we could have another invest get named into perhaps felix. time will tell
1515. SEFL
"Posted By: JupiterFL at 1:16 PM GMT on August 20, 2007.

Exactly. If it comes down to it I am more concerned about a possible storm developing and taking my roof in the next few days. This is good for everyone involved. That way I don't have to be the next idiot rescued because I wasn't prepared. What am I going to say, "Sorry I ran out of water and didn't board up. I was too busy blogging about a storm hitting another country and didn't even notive the one coming right at me."

Its likely to be no more than a tropical depression...a big rain storm.
JP,
92L is over warm waters right? Anyone have a map of the gulf stream and where 92L is in relation to that?
the posters seeing the north turn haven't really been back in the blog as of late

I know a lot of them were up until 2-3 am, while u guys were likely sleeping [g]. Also some people do work . . .

That said, I'm concerned about people on the Yucatan / Belize coast. These folks weren't even originally under the gun at all, and now it looks like Dean is making a beeline for N. Belize, which has been hit by cat 4/5 storms in the past to devastating effect. I live in the Bahamas, and I'm keeping an eye on 92L, to be sure. But I'm still watching Dean, too.

It is possible to do both.
Here's one for the West Atlantic:
Link
1520. WPBGal
Have you signed up with the My Safe Florida Hurricane Program? You get a free windstorm inspection which could help save on HO, plus if you need upgrades the will help with a grant.


Yep...sure did...thanks! Waiting for them to schedule now. Also just had a private one done as well..looks good for at least some reduction..I hope! I hate even the thought of a storm around here, but sure want to be prepared. Starting to countdown the time for exiting this area permanently for sure. :(
Posted By: SEFL at 1:22 PM GMT on August 20, 2007.

"Posted By: JupiterFL at 1:16 PM GMT on August 20, 2007.

Exactly. If it comes down to it I am more concerned about a possible storm developing and taking my roof in the next few days. This is good for everyone involved. That way I don't have to be the next idiot rescued because I wasn't prepared. What am I going to say, "Sorry I ran out of water and didn't board up. I was too busy blogging about a storm hitting another country and didn't even notive the one coming right at me."

Its likely to be no more than a tropical depression...a big rain storm.


If it would develop it would be more than a depression. with all that warm water and favorable conditions in the bahamas this would be a strong system
Quicksat says 92L is an open wave.dummy
So, apart from 92L, will what looks like a system at 12N 55W have the potential to develop, it looks like it may be on its way?
1524. Thaale
Exactly. If it comes down to it I am more concerned about a possible storm developing and taking my roof in the next few days. This is good for everyone involved. That way I don't have to be the next idiot rescued because I wasn't prepared. What am I going to say, "Sorry I ran out of water and didn't board up. I was too busy blogging about a storm hitting another country and didn't even notive the one coming right at me."

Excellent point, Jupiter. And last week when powerful Dean was churning toward the Leewards and then possibly Hispaniola/Jamaica/Cuba, there was a time when most of the Gulf talk was about pathetic little Erin. Why? Because that was the more imminent threat to Texans, e.g.. It doesnt mean Texans are sociopaths who didnt care if St. Lucia & Martinique were destroyed by Dean. It means you deal, first, with the problems that face you. We do the same in FL, thats all.
"Big things soemtimes comes in small packages"
"Bad wrapping does not lessen the value of whats inside"


Referring to the small and unorganized Wave 92L
1526. Drakoen
Its fairly large and has a good shape.
1527. SEFL
"If it would develop it would be more than a depression." (emphasis added)

Exactly!!!
I am in North Carolina and I don't like any storm that starts with the "F". They like to go up the coast. I pray for the people affected by Dean or will be.
1530. gthsii
Posted By: Twinkster at 1:12 PM GMT on August 20, 2007.
the CMC keeps the storm over florida for 42 Hours


thats what caught my eye, the stalling off the coast then slow movement once inland...we were fortunate with Wilma that she moved through so fast, Frances and Jeanne were another story...long and drawn out. i don't look forward to another one of those types of storms.
Let's all agree to disagree, that is what makes this site worth watching. As long as we keep our eyes on what is really actually happening in those warm waters. Thanks for all the updates of fact & speculation.
1534. i12BNEi
Did Katrina look that good this far out as 92L?
Posted By: SEFL at 1:28 PM GMT on August 20, 2007.

"If it would develop it would be more than a depression." (emphasis added)

Exactly!!!


Im still confused why people think it would only be a depression. Water temps are very warm, shear is low over the bahamas, moist enviroment...so im confused why it would only be a depression.
1537. ricderr
would any of you US citizens....rather floridians pay no attention to 92L....therefore allowing what might very well be a minor storm causing major damage because people weren't prepared..and thereby causing increased government spending for clean up and assistance which would come out of your pockets too? LMAO
1538. russh46
I don't know if this link has been posted but here you go


Link
Zingo, I can't think of many...Fran? Frances? That's it...
here is the 1st QuikSCAT for 92L and the RIGHT one has well


Ascending Pass

lol

Descending Pass

lol
8 AM NHC Discussion
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LARGE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W SOUTH OF 25N MOVING WEST 20 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM 6 HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W...FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W...AND FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST OF GUYANA AND SURINAME
NORTHWARD TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W...AND IN PART OF THE ITCZ STRETCHING NORTHWARD FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS SLOW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Floyd!!
good morning
now that the dean is heading for the yucatan and eventually south mexico, the emphasis shifts back to the cape verdes region, to see whether thsre are any potential waves that may evolve into something. at the moment there is nothing. soon a wave that will exit the african coast, which will have the potential to develop. what is quite interesting the area east of the lesser antilles to the african coast is very moist and wind shear is between 5-10 knots. with the MJO on the upward trend then we expect much activity from this region in the coming days.
92L is still i needs some organziation..look at the microwave image...though still something to watch has conditions may allow this to spin up

I missed Floyd...oh snap!

Fabian of 2003 caused major damage in Bermuda but spared the East Coast. F
Its likely to be no more than a tropical depression...a big rain storm


you can always ask a couple of Texans if a tropical storm was an insignificate event
92L looks fairly impressive! Could be another one!

Jp, man, you know how some of them are on here! Try to use the ignore list, works fairly good! Have a good Monday, man!
1549. JPV
Posted By: WildHorseDesertTx

People, come on, the Invest is only a group of thunderstorms right now...
I wonder how long it will be before someone says "FLORIDA IS GONNA GET HAMMERED!"? I'd say any time now probably....


What's your problem with people speculating and debating such things. Isn't that what this forum is for anyway?
Russh...I had the same thought...It's there, bears watching.
1551. SEFL
My reasoning for only a rain storm. Quoting from StormW's blog"

"This area is
currently moving WNW at near 20 mph. The CMC
(Canadian) model is the only one showing this
developing into a tropical depression over the Bahamas
in the next 72 hours. I would like to see more model
consensus on development of a closed low, however due
to the supposed improving upper dynamics, and warm
water over the Bahamas area, I am not going to rule
out the CMC solution totally at this time. The other
models are all in agreement though of bring this area
(as a wave) on a more westward course, over the
Bahamas, then over Fla. within about 96 hours or so.
The CMC brings a depression westward into the Bahamas."
now that the dean is heading for the yucatan and eventually south mexico

I believe that the models since 2 am have been indicating higher up the Mexican coast than yesterdays runs. Texas may be out of the woods for the wind, but the rain is what we are worried about.

Erin was only a minor tropical storm and look what all it did.
1553. Drakoen
There is some unfavorable shear over the wave but as it tracks west or WNW it will be moving into a more favorable environment.

I wonder if Erin will be retired.I doubt it considering they didn't retire Tammy's name.
1555. LLJ
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED THIS MORNING NEAR 58 W...IS SHOWING STRONG
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER TWO DIFFERENT SPOTS. THE FIRST LOCATION
IS FROM 10N TO 14N...WHERE A LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB COULD ALSO BE
FOUND. THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND ON THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THIS WAVE NEAR 20N TO 26N. THIS NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

THIS TROPICAL WAVE COULD SLOWLY DEVELOP WITH TIME AS UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W OR WNW.
Hi again guys, this is the new guy here from last night who lives on the Caribbean beach on the little peninsula at the bottom of the Yucatan right in Deans projected path. I appreciated all your help last night. I am still in a quandary about the potential for storm surge here. It appears that there are no safe places to go to avoid encountering Dean even along the only highway near here leading only north or south. With what Im seeing from the current model runs is it could be safer to stay in our concrete homes here in Xcalak than try to be on the road to some place where Dean will also be in another form possibly spawning tornadoes. South is a dead end at Belize and Chetumal Bay will act just like the Caribbe for allowing Dean to pass easily. It appears Dean is forecasted (by the models) to tend northward, so we would be driving into the dirty side of the storm. Dean is just a huge hurricane. Any intelligent advice and specifics as to how far from the center of the eye we should expect how large of a storm surge would be greatly appreciated. All I can currently see is a possibility of staying put and hopefully threading the needle with regard to a surge.
Thanks
Cliff@portillas.com
1557. russh46
What are the criteria for a name to be retired?
1558. CJ5
Morning all. Looks like Deans path is pretty sure now. I wish well to everyone in MX.

92L looks fairly impressive. It has a long way to go to develop. The sat pick Drak posted certainly gives it a good shape for development. We will watch this closely as it develops.

It will interesting to see what Dr Masters says about 92L
92L sounds like a big IF. Only the CMC was even showing the low still holding up to FL. Anyone seeing any other models that show a system sustain itself up to the coast?

Dean became a special interest story after the model consensus agreed with the southerly track. It's only natural that those in SE CONUS are interested in the storms that may get us wet.

Some of us need to get wet.
1562. JPV
Posted By: russh46

What are the criteria for a name to be retired?


I think that it has to have tasted human blood.
1563. Drakoen
hmmmm that post got lost has i was saying we can for get about TD 6 it will skip TD 6 and go right to a TS by looking at this


Ascending Pass

lol

Descending Pass

lol
1565. LLJ
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 11
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.


That's what you're looking at Portillas!
Posted By: russh46 at 9:43 AM EDT on August 20, 2007.
What are the criteria for a name to be retired?


from the NHC site:

The only time that there is a change in the list is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity. If that occurs, then at an annual meeting by the WMO committee (called primarily to discuss many other issues) the offending name is stricken from the list and another name is selected to replace it.

six lists are used in rotation.
Good morning everyone!
Checking in from Jupiter...
I agree with you WildHorse. Texas may not get hit by heavy winds, but it could still experience heavy rains. Rivers and streams are already high and flooding could be severe.
1569. ouc12
Hi there, from Stuart Fl... Will be watching the new system, and watching ya'lls 'forecast'!
Hope system stays weak if it's coming our way !!
Really like viewing all the informative links, and comments. Hope all are OK in Jamaica this a.m....
1570. MTJax
The HPC changed their day 6 forecast to be a tropical wave near FL on Saturday. Yesterday they had 92L as a strong LOW near Miami on Friday. At this point I am expecting a big rain maker in central and south FL on the weekend.

DAY 6 SFC PROG
the cmc was one of the only models developing erin
Drak,
Any systems in the area of 92L that developed there come to mind?
1573. russh46
Thanks
if only one person lost their life,
if only one person lost their home,
I am sure that person and their family would considered it very significate.

At this time is year I watch every little bump and spin. you just do know
thanks for responding to portillas' post.

TJ
Sportegory, Katrina and Rita formed just to the W of where 92L is now.
all we should do is keep an eye on 92L and an eye on Dean. 92L may develop but it may not develop. it will move into a more favorable enviroment eventually so its something to watch
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW_sm3.gif

...really unusual looking position and angle for a TW!
someone please post stormw link
Just wondering about possible time frames for 92L, and hope that Dr. M will comment on this issue, as NWS Miami (in their early am discussion) saw it as "rain event" for Wednesday evening...........

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
308 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007


TAFB ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING 60 WEST LONGITUDE
EXTENDING TO ABOUT 25 NORTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE. THIS
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW. GFS SHOWS THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE INCREASING POPS
BACK TO NEAR CLIMO PER GFS LOOK REASONABLE MID/LATE WEEK GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...AND MAY EVEN NEED TO BE INCREASED
MORE DOWN THE ROAD. LATE IN THE WEEK...THE DEEP RIDGING WEAKENS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE IN PLACE...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE FORECAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FCST.

Quick question(s), and please don't hacksaw my inquiry, but, these different models are run by different computers. Some are similar, some are not. Is a model track then pretty much a crap shoot? Do experts just pick the most likely model run because of past logic? Isn't a bunch of different computer models sort of like the college football ranking system? Would an American Met discount the CMC purely because its simply a Canadian computer model? Has there ever been a time when all of the computer models have agreed with eachother and predicted the same path of an invest/storm?
1582. Drakoen
No one can predict what this wave will do in the coming days.
I don't think anyone is downplaying Dean.

Even if the Invest turns out to be nothing but a rainstorm, as some people are putting it, if it stalls out over land it could cause big problems!!!

Flash floods are the #1 killer you know?!?!
1584. SEFL
"the cmc was one of the only models developing erin"

And those of us in Florida will pay attention when/if that happens.

It takes me 3 hours to put up and close the shutters and I keep the car filled with gas this time of year. Hurricane supplies already in place!! :)
I know...but if it's not a tropical cyclone then it will be boring because it's not a tropical trackable!
92L
NGP and CMC both have this developing and hitting S. Fla in 4 days time.
Question - Does the NGP agreement lend a little more credibility to the CMC?

Thanks.
1587. SEFL
"someone please post stormw link"

Go to the main blog page here. It is listed as a featured blog.
Can someone please refer to either my repost of Portillas' post or Portillas' post itself? I'm a newb and don't have answers for him and would like for him to get the help he desparately needs. Thanks.

TJ
Jamaica got off relatively IMO.
1590. Drakoen
Dean looks like he's in the brink of Cat 5, worrying intensity estimates for the yucatan landfall.
well the ERC looks done with dean. intense convection is starting to develop in a ring shape around the eye again
Don't forget to check out Tropical Lagniappe for some great links to other blogs and websites from fellow WU members! There's some great info here and I always learn something each time I visit them!
? 92l now up....td6 prbly but where will it go?? wwho knows.....
Thanks LLJ. Near and to the north. I wonder how near is near? That's the needle I'm hoping to thread. According to current models, it appears landfall may be about 63 miles north of me. My house withstood both Keith and Mitch and saw a 7' surge with Mitch. If it is less than that in some likelyhood, we'd be safer staying here than going into the dirty side.
Thanks,
Cliff@portillas.com
1596. LLJ
I already responded to Portilla's post.


NoNamePub....I do not see the NOGAPS developing 92L.
1597. NOWCAST
Nam also developes
Drak,
Will the 12z runs be the first of 92L for GFDL, HWRF?
Looks like things are going to stay busy for awhile......glad the board is back to normal, yesterday was like jr high school.
1600. quante
Very early models on 92L. The unreliable ones. But anyway . . ., may as well start the discussion somewhere. Link.
why would this be an invest if all the potential it had was as a rainstorm? it has a decent shot at developing right?
is recon in dean now? havent gotten any vortex messages yet...
gfs dvlps 92l. another area near bahams.. that bigger area is where rita and katrina formed so watch it closely its an excellent genisis point for cyclones that head westward throguh the straights.
Posted By: LLJ at 1:57 PM GMT on August 20, 2007.
I already responded to Portilla's post.
NoNamePub....I do not see the NOGAPS developing 92L.

LLJ - Check the 850Vort. It is weak but it is a direct hit on the Broward/Dade line.
Posted By: wederwatcher555 at 1:59 PM GMT on August 20, 2007.

why would this be an invest if all the potential it had was as a rainstorm? it has a decent shot at developing right?


It has a good shot. All we can do is watch and wait
Morning guys, is there any way that i would be able to tell if a tropical wave has a lot of rain or not?
According to the Quicksat 92L looks like an open wave so it has a ways to go. Just time to watch that for now. I think the more pressing issue is Dean right now for the Yucatan. He is starting to look like he might start intensifying again.
1608. Drakoen
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 1:58 PM GMT on August 20, 2007.

Drak,
Will the 12z runs be the first of 92L for GFDL, HWRF?


I'm not sure.

Posted By: LLJ at 1:57 PM GMT on August 20, 2007.

I already responded to Portilla's post.


NoNamePub....I do not see the NOGAPS developing 92L.


Use the 850mb vorticity. Its at least hinting something.
gfs picks something up on the 850mb vorticity heading to florida, not very strong but it does pick something up
1610. LLJ
Portillas....Near means about anything right now. What if there is a slight jog south just prior to landfall?
I never stay if a Cat 4 or 5 is heading in my direction. I have seen too many do the jog in the last 50 miles due to interaction with land.
Dean is looking very mean still. 92L looks to be disorganzed. No central focus point to the convection but over warmer waters now.
1612. LLJ
LLJ - Check the 850Vort. It is weak but it is a direct hit on the Broward/Dade line.

That's not the MSLP. That 850 is trying to show a low pressure area.
Posted By: extreme236 at 2:00 PM GMT on August 20, 2007.

gfs picks something up on the 850mb vorticity heading to florida, not very strong but it does pick something up

extreme - Does that lend credibility to CMC?
1615. Drakoen
Leave it to the ship models to make this a category 1 hurricane lol.
I agree thePainkiller.
expect two psbl tds to form in the next 96 hours.....
1618. Drakoen
LLJ you can actually use the MSLP it shows a weak area as a circle.
Posted By: MisterPerfect at 1:50 PM GMT on August 20, 2007.

Quick question(s), and please don't hacksaw my inquiry, but, these different models are run by different computers. Some are similar, some are not. Is a model track then pretty much a crap shoot? Do experts just pick the most likely model run because of past logic? Isn't a bunch of different computer models sort of like the college football ranking system? Would an American Met discount the CMC purely because its simply a Canadian computer model? Has there ever been a time when all of the computer models have agreed with eachother and predicted the same path of an invest/storm?
1620. guygee
06Z GFS Ensembles clustering a little further south with Dean's track this morning mostly into Mexico, wih Ensemble Mean (AEMN) showing slower recurvature after northern Mexico final landfall into Central Texas. O6Z GFS Ensemble 1" Precipitation contours suggest the danger of very heavy rains of Texas somewhat reduced compared to yesterday's runs, perhaps due to more weakening of Dean over the Yucatan and more southern track.

00Z CONU ensemble, one of the most skilled ensembles out past 72 hours for tropical cyclone track prediction, shows Dean never getting north of 21N. An extreme southern track of Dean into south central Mexico may bring dangerous flooding to some of the most populous regions of the country.
Click on thumbnail to see Mexico's Population Distribution Map:
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
1621. calder
dean is looking very impressive, grown in size
We are getting pounded by some wind gusts of around 60mph now...but thanks God this is the extent of the storm! The eye passed about 115 miles to our south around 7AM. STILL very little rain! This is a dry one! (at least on the outter part of the CDO. - Grand Cayman
I couldn't come online over the weekend but I was watching every move with Dean over the weekend. It was a very powerful system and I'm still tracking that one.

I'm surprised at the development of 92L. With the media coverage of Dean I didn't know there was possible development of another system. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out through the week.
Dr M has a new blog up y'all
Morning Portillas,

If u are going south, u would likely need to go all the way to Belmopan. I don't think anywhere else prior to that has the kind of sturdy structures and is far enough inland to avoid the worst.

Another blogger, jamnkats, is headed to Cancun, but I think she left from just south of Cozumel about 4 hours ago.

How high is your house above sea level? Can any of the locals tell u about how far storm surge came inland on previous storms like Hattie, Janet, etc.?

Whatever decision you make, I understand u need to make it soon.

Stay safe, and keep us posted!
Nice little windswell from Dean( pressure gradient really) on the east coast Sunday-good enough for rides all day. Maybe north Texas to Alabama may see good conditions from Dean for a short time. Probably zero for west Florida unless the course changes-which isn't happening yet. The NHC really nailed the track on this, didn't they!
So, the consensus here is that Dean will be a Cat1 or a Cat2 in the Bay of Campeche then?

(Over at The Oil Drum, we're talking about the impact of Dean on the gas and NG rigs at the Cantarell and KMZ fields--they aren't built for direct hurricane winds like others in the Gulf is the conjecture.)

Anyone else have any thoughts now with the morning's updates?

(by the way, if you're curious--here's the post where The Oil Drum is talking about this with all of our oil and gas maps and data resources, etc.: LINK and here's our latest Google Mashup of track and infrastructure: Link)
Posted By: HurricaneDean2007 at 8:49 AM CDT on August 20, 2007.

Sportegory, Katrina and Rita formed just to the W of where 92L is now.


That grabbed my attention right there...

DRM HAS A NEW BLOG
THE EYE OF THE ULL?
If you're bored, check out the following buoy/station observations (links below) between about 1400-1800CDT today.
PTIT2 is @ Port Isabel, TX near Brownsville.
42045 is in the GOM near Brownsville.
42020 is in the GOM a little N of 42045.

42045 recorded a 7mb pressure fall at 1430CDT w/19knot winds w/gust to 29 (peak wind @ 1500CDT).
42020 recorded 19 knot winds G to 25 @ 1550CDT and 25knots G to 31 @ 1650CDT.
Pressure fall was not especially notable at this location.
PTIT2 recorded a notable increase in wind speed between 1500-1800CDT. Gusts and pressure are not recorded at this location.
Pressure tendency or PTDY where listed is derived from the pressure change noted during a 3 hr period ending at the Observation time.
There appeared to be some convection occuring during this general time frame as noted in Vis and WV loops. A feature w/CCW rotation is also evident in this general area.
A 7mb drop in pressure would usually be associated with some type of synoptic (large-scale) system if this occured on dry land (CONUS).
If my understanding is correct, pressure falls in ordinary (meso scale) T-Storms are a lot smaller and last only a very brief time (10-15 minutes). A 7mb fall in a tropical system in this 2-3 hr time frame would have us all whistlin' Dixie (stand and removeyour hat please). Please feel free to correct the last statement if it runs counter to your knowledge base.
Wind directions don't strongly support a case for surface rotation but to me, the spike in wind speeds and rapid press fall/rise seem to.
So right before this feature goes away (and I'm sure many of you were wishing it was already gone) it may have finally spun its way down from a ULL to being a surface based feature.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ptit2
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42045
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42020