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A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

5001. aquak9
spathy- we're not getting any rain here for probably a week. Storm supplies? well we were gonna crank up the genny but we forgot.

beef jerky, instant coffee, toilet paper.

And a rabies shot.
5002. Asta
Quoting biloxidaisy:
Wow... lots of tension here tonight... hate to see it in another month. Deep breath everyone.. deep breath...

Hopefully, Admin will be out in full force. I love reading this site throughout the day, but lately it has just been crazy!
5004. Patrap
96L RGB




Not often we get Model consensus like this :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
5000 posts

We are in serious need of a new blog.
Quoting Asta:


wow the convection looks worse in south florida then 95l
Quoting texascoastres:
Tar balls on Bolivar at galveston, they have tested it and it is a match to the dna of the gulf oil spill


I saw that earlier. Can't believe it made it to us!
Quoting aquak9:
spathy- we're not getting any rain here for probably a week. Storm supplies? well we were gonna crank up the genny but we forgot.

beef jerky, instant coffee, toilet paper.

And a rabies shot.


Granted.. your avatar is a little scruffy.. but a rabies shot??
Quoting MississippiBoy:
Storm,so if 96L gets it s act together and strengthens it COULD go more northerly than predicted and I know nothing is etched in stone.
The same was said of Alex. He couldn't consolidate quick enough to be a N Gulf problem...
5012. xcool
96L development HMMM
Quoting palmpt:


Yes, I'm disappointed that StormW went down to that level of bickering. His opinion is to be respected but not worshiped. If he was right 100% of the time, I'd suspect him of having a little arrangement with Ms. Nature. But right now I'm watching Patrap with a suspicious eye...
Quoting BiloxiIsle:

Wow, you "poof" people who agrees with you...to many "poof" happy people here.

BiloxiIsle, I thought your avitar picture was a picture of a hurricane or a tropical storm. I just realized it was a cat!...lol I am thinking some new glasses are in order!
Quoting PtownBryan:


I saw that earlier. Can't believe it made it to us!


I'd have to guess those are courtesy of Alex and 95L. Which is precisely why many of us were watching lil 95L.
..showers and strong thunderstorms moving across coastal
southeast Louisiana...

545 PM CDT... a well defined area of low pressure is moving
inland over Terrebonne Parish. The low was located south of
Houma and is moving north northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

The low is expected to continue to move inland this evening and
this evening with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible over the
affected area through this evening which could down tree limbs and
blow around unsecured small objects.

These storms could produce rainfall amounts of one to
three inches in a short period of time... resulting in ponding of
water around low lying roadways. Remember... do not drive your vehicle
into water covered roadways. The depth may be too great to allow a
safe crossing.

Tide levels remain elevated and onshore winds of 20 to 30 mph may
cause some low lying roadways near coastal areas to flood.
From WDSU "Tar Balls Reach Rigolets, Threaten Lake Pontchartrain" Link

95L, be it a named storm or not, is making a large impact on the gulf coast by driving this oil further inland and threatening both the ecosystem and the lives of it's residents. We need to focus on the big picture here, not on what 95L is or is not.

Back to lurking I go.
5018. spathy
Quoting aquak9:
spathy- we're not getting any rain here for probably a week. Storm supplies? well we were gonna crank up the genny but we forgot.

beef jerky, instant coffee, toilet paper.

And a rabies shot.

See there ya go.
Beef jerky!

I knew I forgot something.
Of wait ....
I just ate it all already.
Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 10.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.4 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 128 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.6 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.5 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 92.1 °F


29.78inch this is 1008.5mb and is 60 miles fron center so in center will be 1007 or 1006mb
whats shoot for 10,000 post

if we dont kill the blog 1st
95L may not be done yet ....

Link
Quoting itrackstorms:
5000 posts

We are in serious need of a new blog.

Yes with all due respect I am surprised that we have not had a "New Blog".... This is way to long now....

Taco :o)
Hey, if "near tropical storm force winds could occur across Terrebone Parish," and there is a 60% chance of 95L becoming a cyclone before it moves inland, why would there not be a tropical storm watch issued for the coast?
5024. cg2916
What the heck? Code red on 95L? I thought it was at <0%.
new blog

(j/k, made ya look)
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
Hey, if "near tropical storm force winds could occur across Terrebone Parish," and there is a 60% chance of 95L becoming a cyclone before it moves inland, why would there not be a tropical storm watch issued for the coast?

haha good point beats me
5027. Patrap
Quoting taco2me61:

Yes with all due respect I am surprised that we have not had a "New Blog".... This is way to long now....

Taco :o)
Taco, How much rain did you get up in town today?
yes sir, 95l has been pushing it our way
oh its done alright
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
Hey, if "near tropical storm force winds could occur across Terrebone Parish," and there is a 60% chance of 95L becoming a cyclone before it moves inland, why would there not be a tropical storm watch issued for the coast?


I'm no expert but I reckon that it would have to be a "tropical storm" those stats you're reading off sound close to TD so that would probably be right? Anyone that would know the answer to this care to agree or disagree and correct me if I'm wrong?
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
Hey, if "near tropical storm force winds could occur across Terrebone Parish," and there is a 60% chance of 95L becoming a cyclone before it moves inland, why would there not be a tropical storm watch issued for the coast?


Because it's not officially a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm.
5033. cg2916
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
Hey, if "near tropical storm force winds could occur across Terrebone Parish," and there is a 60% chance of 95L becoming a cyclone before it moves inland, why would there not be a tropical storm watch issued for the coast?


It has to actually develop, which I think is stupid, because if we have a strong Invest with strong TS-force winds, there is no tropical storm warning.
5034. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI


5035. cg2916
Quoting Patrap:



Like a landfalling Marco.
5036. spathy
Quoting Orcasystems:


Granted.. your avatar is a little scruffy.. but a rabies shot??

Orca!
I know!!!
Aqua wont let me visit until I get one.
Rabies ??
Herrumphhhh!
She knows I dont bite that hard.
Aqua?
This rain is not supposed to make it to you?
Its getting close.
Quoting cg2916:


It has to actually develop, which I think is stupid, because if we have a strong Invest with strong TS-force winds, there is no tropical storm warning.


Usually they're good about issuing gale warnings though, which is like the same thing but there is no closed LLC involved with the winds..
Here in Key West we have had a very cloudy day with winds about 30mph from the ESE and scattered showers from time to time. Temps have been around 80 degrees. Nice day though. I live on a sailboat about a mile from shore.
The bickering on here is distracting and a waste of blog space and time. I come here to learn, and, if possible, contribute. Maybe I'm just old, but I was taught to be respectful to others. Thanks for the ones who teach without berating someone's lack of knowledge.After all, that's why some of us are here, to gain that knowledge.
Quoting msgambler:
Taco, How much rain did you get up in town today?

We did not get any rain today at all....
Now we did get some at around 5am this morning
but none the rest of the day.....
I just finished BBQ some chicken and fried Squash & green Tamatoes.....

Taco :o)
5041. Patrap



2 products issued by NWS for: 37NM SSW Houma LA
Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
525 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>040-
046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-062230-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
525 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SOME OF THE SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR-
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MARINE...
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS...
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD MIDWEEK. THIS LOW
WILL TRANSPORT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD-TO- GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

.COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL COASTAL AREAS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN TIDE LEVELS THAT ARE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...
WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN MARINE
ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. SEAS WILL PEAK 5 TO 8
FEET ON WEDNESDAY.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

95/DM




Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I think the NHC will bring back the yellow circle on the Antilles disturbance at 8:00 p.m.

has it been organizing some
Quoting atmoaggie:
new blog

(j/k, made ya look)


I don't blame you after you got left behind the other night.
Quoting atmoaggie:
new blog

(j/k, made ya look)

now cut that out!!!! lmao

oh we need some help!
Quoting mobilebayal:

BiloxiIsle, I thought your avitar picture was a picture of a hurricane or a tropical storm. I just realized it was a cat!...lol I am thinking some new glasses are in order!

lol, that's ok. Although, at times, she acts like a hurricane...tearing through the house
5046. Patrap
Quoting cg2916:



Like a landfalling Marco.


Compact ,,but with a Bigger envelope overall than Marco..but its a fine analogy .
Quoting taco2me61:

We did not get any rain today at all....
Now we did get some at around 5am this morning
but none the rest of the day.....
I just finished BBQ some chicken and fried Squash & green Tamatoes.....

Taco :o)
It rained down here from 5 till about 8:30. Came in from the Bay, but we needed it.
Quoting Kristina40:


I'd have to guess those are courtesy of Alex and 95L. Which is precisely why many of us were watching lil 95L.


Link

Lets hope it is normal (article states not uncommon) or from a passing ship that has taken it on
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L may not be done yet ....

Link


Did 95L do the impossible and move South back into the Gulf???
Whatever is in the gulf in the next few days will be steered to the Northwest or West. Good chance 96L heads somewhere to Texas
Quoting Orcasystems:
Not often we get Model consensus like this :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


how do you get that on google earth?
5052. aquak9
Actually, it's better for home-owners who sustain damage, to NOT have any sort of named storm watch/warning in place. At least here in Florida.

Tree falls on house in summer thunderstorm- ya pay yer deductable, all's cool.

Same tree, same damage, during a named storm watch/warning? You gotta pay the "hurricane" deductable first, which could be ten times as much as the regular deductable.

Zombie alert back to code null. Rabies shot still on schedule.
Quoting BiloxiIsle:

lol, that's ok. Although, at times, she acts like a hurricane...tearing through the house


I have six little mini "Hurricanes" to tear my house up. When 95L was forming near hear they all went to acting crazy for a couple days, the Greyhound joined them in the fun.
Quoting aquak9:
Actually, it's better for home-owners who sustain damage, to NOT have any sort of named storm watch/warning in place. At least here in Florida.

Tree falls on house in summer thunderstorm- ya pay yer deductable, all's cool.

Same tree, same damage, during a named storm watch/warning? You gotta pay the "hurricane" deductable first, which could be ten times as much as the regular deductable.

Zombie alert back to code null. Rabies shot still on schedule.

same here in LA aqua....named storm deductible kicks in.
5055. Seastep
OK. For the 95L... and life... and such... knock it off.

You obviously don't live in FL.

Is it a weather event? Yes. Watch the weather, but this should not be something raising alarm.

This is from a storm (that's 150mph anchorage) that came through my neighborhood about a month ago.



95L is not going to produce that. Not even close.

If someone is not watching the weather and knowing that they are going to get some rain and wind, well, tough.

I guess the bottom line is, it is not something that needs to be prepared for.

Anyone in a hurricane effected area that is "really" concerned about this needs to move.

Looks nice, though. ;)
5056. Patrap
I'm sorry to veer off topic.. but this just makes me angry and I have to vent this out. I personally know Charley, he's a great man, a former astro and a former Marine general.. I don't think he would say that.

NASA Chief: Next Frontier Better Relations With Muslim World

NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said in a recent interview that his "foremost" mission as the head of America's space exploration agency is to improve relations with the Muslim world.

Though international diplomacy would seem well outside NASA's orbit, Bolden said in an interview with Al Jazeera that strengthening those ties was among the top tasks President Obama assigned him. He said better interaction with the Muslim world would ultimately advance space travel.

"When I became the NASA administrator -- or before I became the NASA administrator -- he charged me with three things. One was he wanted me to help re-inspire children to want to get into science and math, he wanted me to expand our international relationships, and third, and perhaps foremost, he wanted me to find a way to reach out to the Muslim world and engage much more with dominantly Muslim nations to help them feel good about their historic contribution to science ... and math and engineering," Bolden said in the interview.

The NASA administrator was in the Middle East last month marking the one-year anniversary since Obama delivered an address to Muslim nations in Cairo. Bolden spoke in June at the American University in Cairo -- in his interview with Al Jazeera, he described space travel as an international collaboration of which Muslim nations must be a part.

"It is a matter of trying to reach out and get the best of all worlds, if you will, and there is much to be gained by drawing in the contributions that are possible from the Muslim (nations)," he said. He held up the International Space Station as a model, praising the contributions there from the Russians and the Chinese.

However, Bolden denied the suggestion that he was on a diplomatic mission -- in a distinctly non-diplomatic role.

"Not at all. It's not a diplomatic anything," he said.

He said the United States is not going to travel beyond low-Earth orbit on its own and that no country is going to make it to Mars without international help.

Bolden has faced criticism this year for overseeing the cancellation of the agency's Constellation program, which was building new rockets and spaceships capable of returning astronauts to the moon. Stressing the importance of international cooperation in future missions, Bolden told Al Jazeera that the moon, Mars and asteroids are still planned destinations for NASA.

I promise not to go off topic again.
That's a good point aqua. Guess the people in LA should be happy no name for "lil fella".
Just some questions from a new blogger, but long time lurker trying to learn more. There has been a blob of rain each morning now off of the southwest FL coast that sends a shield of rain up through central FL. Is this due to a stalled front? What how do I distinguish between upper and lower level spin in the clouds that I see on satellite?
As if the blog isn't long enough now, get ready for the 100 TWO's that are going to be posted...
Quoting msgambler:
It rained down here from 5 till about 8:30. Came in from the Bay, but we needed it.

Be very "Carful What You Ask For"
It might be more than we all want....

LOL
Taco :o)
95L making a hard left ? What do you think Pat ?
best spin i seen with 96L yet, it might get bumped to 40% at 8pm est
5064. Seastep
For 96L, StormW and Drak have taken the higher % route.

I'm going with CosmicEvents position, though.

Surface obs. No one really knows though. Another interesting one.
Quoting Kristina40:


I have six little mini "Hurricanes" to tear my house up. When 95L was forming near hear they all went to acting crazy for a couple days, the Greyhound joined them in the fun.

you know, they say animals are a good gauge for storms.
Quoting stormpetrol:
best spin i seen with 96L yet, it might get bumped to 40% at 8pm est
It will likely go to 40%, but IMO should be raised further to 50% or even 60%.
Hello everyone.So it looks like 96l is struggling tonight.Does anyone think it will get better organized this evening?
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Hello everyone.So it looks like 96l is struggling tonight.Does anyone think it will get better organized this evening?


96L's actually becoming better organized. 95L's at a red alert right now too.
Quoting BiloxiIsle:

you know, they say animals are a good gauge for storms.


They are, I trust the critters far more than I trust my local weather people. They don't need fancy devices to sense pressure drops.
5070. Patrap
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L making a hard left ? What do you think Pat ?


Its in the Null spot as to Forward motion,

. seems the tightening of the Wind Field or circ is keeping it there as well.

Quoting taco2me61:

Be very "Carful What You Ask For"
It might be more than we all want....

LOL
Taco :o)
Be quiet, be very quiet....LOL
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
As if the blog isn't long enough now, get ready for the 100 TWO's that are going to be posted...

hahaha good point
Quoting Kristina40:


They are, I trust the critters far more than I trust my local weather people. They don't need fancy devices to sense pressure drops.

amen to that...my two dogs always let us know when the barometer drops...
96L doesn't look too bad to me:

that blob of rain is what is giving us the flood warnings in south eastern broward. Its like each day we are getting pounded with either heat or rain.
Looking at the visible, 95L actually does look like a TD, a very small TD at that. The little guy came really close, but no cigar, in other words, no classification.
I see 2 possible centers, one at 19.7N/83.8W , another at 18N/82.5W and I'm still confused!
Here's a link.Link
For the last couple weeks the local news reports were stating the oil would probably not reach south Florida.

This isn't good news for south Florida. Why hire if the oil is not on its way? Could all this storm activity have something to do with this, or is it merely political?

BP Hiring 300 S. Floridians To Build Oil Response Team

Quoting Patrap:


ahhh...tropical rain bands...and warm wet nearly firm land to sweeten it's path across the bayous...
I said 96L seemed to be trying to pull itself back together earlier in the day. It still does.
Quoting BiloxiIsle:

you know, they say animals are a good gauge for storms.
I agree Biloxi. We had a shepard during Camille and she went nuts. All night long we had to try and keep her calm. We lived in Gulfport at the time
Quoting hurricanehanna:

amen to that...my two dogs always let us know when the barometer drops...


How do they let you know?
Quoting stormpetrol:
I see 2 possible centers, one at 19.7N/83.8W , another at 18N/82.5W and I'm still confused!
96L has multiple vorticies so it makes it difficult to pinpoint.
5085. aquak9
hanna, kristen- didn't know what other states it applied to.

watches/warnings have their good points and bad points.

I prefer picking apart the macrame of information here on WU, than being fed the stuff they feed the sheeple.
Now on 95L, this coming from the Weather Channel that it could easily be named a tropical storm by landfall and that the national hurricane center was actually keeping a close eye on its development even though it was coming onshore into the Louisiana parish's. So with that said, are we looking at something like that for the rest of the season or something else?
5087. oakland
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
that blob of rain is what is giving us the flood warnings in south eastern broward. Its like each day we are getting pounded with either heat or rain.


I've been watching the western side of it move my way all day. I'm amazed it held together all the way from Naples
Quoting Patrap:


Its in the Null spot as to Forward motion,

. seems the tightening of the Wind Field or circ is keeping it there as well.



Goes13 low cloud product shows slow westerly drift as well...
5089. aquak9
Quoting skkippboo:


How do they let you know?


they float.
You are right about 96l.I think I looked at an earlier post.Im sorry.And wow for 95l.It held in there.
get ur f5 keys ready
how march longer in tell this site updates


Link
Quoting skkippboo:


How do they let you know?


Various ways. The wild ones do as well, watch the birds. When they go silent and disappear, it might be time to hunker down. The domestics tend to act distressed, like they instinctively know they should be running. Dog paces from room to room and wants to be as close to me as possible. The cats pace and meow and run around like loons.
Quoting aquak9:


they float.


HAH!
Quoting Tazmanian:
how march longer in tell this site updates


Link
Updates are given every 6 hours, next one is at 00:00 UTC. Basically wait another hour.
5096. xcool
WHY ROB
5097. spathy
Quoting aquak9:
Actually, it's better for home-owners who sustain damage, to NOT have any sort of named storm watch/warning in place. At least here in Florida.

Tree falls on house in summer thunderstorm- ya pay yer deductable, all's cool.

Same tree, same damage, during a named storm watch/warning? You gotta pay the "hurricane" deductable first, which could be ten times as much as the regular deductable.

Zombie alert back to code null. Rabies shot still on schedule.


Good point.
See NHC has alot to think about :0)
Good evening granny
The tar balls are 100% natural phenomenon.

We have not seen any evidence to suggest these tar balls are in any way connected to the relatively minor Deep Water Horizons event.

You can't believe everything you hear on CNN and FOX news. This oil spill is nowhere near as bad as they are claiming. Heck, it's barely a trickle. BP is gonna clean it all up. It's their oil. Give it a few months and you small people will never know it happened. Tony Hayward has canceled all of his vacations so he could concentrate on cleaning up the oil spill, and just the other day, he even skipped lunch. I even saw him shoveling some oiled sand personally!

The oil containment efforts have been a massive success as BP continues to bring in more resources to skim off lots and lots of oil, as well as capture it directly from the busted well. There is no evidence of cracked oceanic crust leaking additional oil, that was just a rumor. BP has given a 100% chance of success from the relief wells. They are guaranteed to work! I mean, they are double redundant, so if anything went wrong the second one is SURE to work right? What more can we do? Make them triple redundant? That's overkill!
5100. Seastep
Sorry, forgot the pic in 5055...

Here it is:

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Updates are given every 6 hours, next one is at 00:00 UTC. Basically wait another hour.



my poor F 5 key
the TWO is coming out
5103. leo305
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L making a hard left ? What do you think Pat ?


the center is moving WNW on visible
Quoting aquak9:
Actually, it's better for home-owners who sustain damage, to NOT have any sort of named storm watch/warning in place. At least here in Florida.

Tree falls on house in summer thunderstorm- ya pay yer deductable, all's cool.

Same tree, same damage, during a named storm watch/warning? You gotta pay the "hurricane" deductable first, which could be ten times as much as the regular deductable.

Zombie alert back to code null. Rabies shot still on schedule.


Please tell me what a zombie is in here?
5105. bappit
Quoting StormW:


I know Orca, but got some of the folks who sent me to the Conference to further my knowledge, I bring it back here, and well.....

Seems it is okay to say mets working for NOAA don't know what they are talking about (see yesterday).
5106. JLPR2
Quoting Kristina40:


Various ways. The wild ones do as well, watch the birds. When they go silent and disappear, it might be time to hunker down. The domestics tend to act distressed, like they instinctively know they should be running. Dog paces from room to room and wants to be as close to me as possible. The cats pace and meow and run around like loons.



Yeah I remember my parakeets were going nuts during Hurricane Georges, well they are now deceased :( But yeah, animals, even ants know XD
Quoting oakland:


I've been watching the western side of it move my way all day. I'm amazed it held together all the way from Naples


Move? That thing has been moving quite slowly all day and that is the reason for the advisories and warnings that were posted for our areas.
Hey sweetie.How are you tonight?Are you getting a lot of rain from the outer bands of 95l?If thats what they call it.
Funny last night and early this morning all heavy convection was to the East of 96L , it seems as of midday and this evening it has switched to the west side
Quoting Seastep:
Sorry, forgot the pic in 5055...

Here it is:


better get that fixed never know when the next cane will strike
To minimize the already 5100 post blog I'll be the only person posting the 8PM TWO. It will be greatly appreciated.
Wow, 102 pages. Went back to page 2 and read a few posts. There were two dinosaurs arguing about the projected path of hurricane Barney.
5113. xcool
Link


rader loop for 96L
Quoting Kristina40:


Various ways. The wild ones do as well, watch the birds. When they go silent and disappear, it might be time to hunker down. The domestics tend to act distressed, like they instinctively know they should be running. Dog paces from room to room and wants to be as close to me as possible. The cats pace and meow and run around like loons.


Our 6 dogs and countless cats didn't act too weird last week when Alex landed 100 miles south of us, but my ears were popping the day before till it dissipated. The dogs just hid in the dog houses during the rain, the cats hid too, I guess.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
To minimize the already 5000+ blog I'll be the only person posting the 8PM TWO. It will be greatly appreciated.

go for it i hope people will listen
5116. xcool
AT 40% NHC
5117. oakland
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


Move? That thing has been moving quite slowly all day and that is the reason for the advisories and warnings that were posted for our areas.


Yes move, granted it seems to be at about 1mph, but yea it's been movin'. It's also been expanding so it appears to stay in place.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
To minimize the already 5100 blog I'll be the only person posting the 8PM TWO. It will be greatly appreciated.


Ummm why don't you just post a link to it... then no one has to post it :)
Fox news says...possible tropical depression in gulf.......
To minimize the already 5000+ blog, you can be the only person posting the 8PM TWO. It will be greatly appreciated.
listen to 5111 everyone if u post the two u must delete it quickly miami is only one doing it
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Fox news says...possible tropical depression in gulf.......


Nice to see they are really on top of things...
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Hey sweetie.How are you tonight?Are you getting a lot of rain from the outer bands of 95l?If thats what they call it.
Yeah we got some this morning for about 3 hours but it has been sunshining since. But a little is better than none.
5124. FLdewey
The granny thing is, quoting comic book guy:

Worst... Disguise... Ever

LMAO

there late
Up my way started getting it this afternoon.Heavy squalls too I might add.
5127. Patrap
95L now analyzed at 1008 mb Low

Floater - Visible Loop
5128. USSINS
Quoting RecordSeason:
The tar balls are 100% natural phenomenon.

We have not seen any evidence to suggest these tar balls are in any way connected to the relatively minor Deep Water Horizons event.

You can't believe everything you hear on CNN and FOX news. This oil spill is nowhere near as bad as they are claiming. Heck, it's barely a trickle. BP is gonna clean it all up. It's their oil. Give it a few months and you small people will never know it happened. Tony Hayward has canceled all of his vacations so he could concentrate on cleaning up the oil spill, and just the other day, he even skipped lunch. I even saw him shoveling some oiled sand personally!

The oil containment efforts have been a massive success as BP continues to bring in more resources to skim off lots and lots of oil, as well as capture it directly from the busted well. There is no evidence of cracked oceanic crust leaking additional oil, that was just a rumor. BP has given a 100% chance of success from the relief wells. They are guaranteed to work! I mean, they are double redundant, so if anything went wrong the second one is SURE to work right? What more can we do? Make them triple redundant? That's overkill!



This is sarcasm, right?
Quoting oakland:


Yes move, granted it seems to be at about 1mph, but yea it's been movin'


just watch there will be photos of ppl using canoes in the southern part of broward.
its a ts or the 8 would have already been out
5131. oakland
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


just watch there will be photos of ppl using canoes in the southern part of broward.


I don't doubt it! :-)
Quoting Tazmanian:
there late
Don't post it Taz...Lol.
If you think this # of posts is crazy. Wait for the season to really get popping.
5134. whs2012
When is the next blog update? Lol. Its been like 36 hours?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Don't post it Taz...Lol.


lol
Quoting wfyweather:
its a ts or the 8 would have already been out
There would have already been a renumber if so.
I have got the 2 but I can't post it. Miami you have got mail :)
5138. Patrap
96L to swing that energy into the GOM via da channel seems.


This is what I think stormpet the one at 19N 83W is the MLC and the one at 18N 82W is the LLC or the MLC making it way to the LL maybe when D-MAX kick in the convection will help out and maybe it could stall and stick around and take advantage of that hot water to the west of us
5141. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There would have already been a renumber if so.


yeah, they seem to be thinking it LOL
Well, they have till 8 to publish it and be on time :)
5142. aquak9
Quoting msmama51:


Please tell me what a zombie is in here?


you have wu-mail. Top of the screen, red "mail" icon.
What do you mean FLdeway?
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
I have got the 2 but I can't post it. Miami you have got mail :)
Lol, you haven't sent me anything.
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
I have got the 2 but I can't post it. Miami you have got mail :)


you do not have the TWO, it isn't out yet

did you call the NHC or something?
Cantore doing the Tropical update right now. Talking about 95L and how it could have been classified a TD.
5147. xcool



KABOOM
Quoting Hurricanes101:


you do not have the TWO, it isn't out yet

did you call the NHC or something?
LOL!
Quoting Hurricanes101:


you do not have the TWO, it isn't out yet

did you call the NHC or something?


No but sit in on the Conference calls all the time :)
still no two
5151. oakland
Quoting aquak9:


you have wu-mail. Top of the screen, red "mail" icon.


Aqua, I've been out awhile. Would you tell me too, please?

Thanx
Quoting Kristina40:
Cantore doing the Tropical update right now. Talking about 95L and how it could have been classified a TD.


based on the criteria, it could not

the main sticking points with it not being named is it was frontal the entire time up until about 3 hours ago, and 95L has yet to exhibit PERSISTENT convection
5153. Patrap
Quoting Kristina40:
Cantore doing the Tropical update right now. Talking about 95L and how it could have been classified a TD.


He's a Big Lurker seems

Quoting Patrap:
95L now analyzed at 1008 mb Low

Floater - Visible Loop


Part of the importance of 95L is that it is bringing more moisture into an otherwise dry atmosphere in the western gulf as this will sweeten the atmosphere for a possible 96L path.
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


No but sit in on the Conference calls all the time :)


ok so based on your smile and the email, lemme gueess

NHC either upgraded 95L to a TD or TS OR the percentage went up and they plan on classifying it at 11pm
Quoting Patrap:


He's a Big Lurker seems



How can somebody that's 4'9 be big ?
Quoting SiestaCpl:


Part of the importance of 95L is that it is bringing more moisture into an otherwise dry atmosphere in the western gulf as this will sweeten the atmosphere for a possible 96L path.


Another worry...
Guess the NHC got somethin' good for us in the TWO...lol.
96L really looking good at the moment.
The weather channel just has to say stupid stuff like that to increase their ratings. They need everyone to stay glued to the tropical update.
5161. Patrap
Quoting xcool:



KABOOM

too weak ingore it also sterring doesnt take it there
Quoting Hurricanes101:


ok so based on your smile and the email, lemme gueess

NHC either upgraded 95L to a TD or TS OR the percentage went up and they plan on classifying it at 11pm
If he is right I'll do something nice, lol.
5164. xcool
MiamiHur :0 .
Quoting Kristina40:
Cantore doing the Tropical update right now. Talking about 95L and how it could have been classified a TD.


Yeah, saw that. I think he lurks on wu blog more than I do...
ive never seen it this late
96L forming spokes-on-a-wheel feeder storms. Sign of the tropical centering technique.
5168. xcool
<< NO TALK JUST GO LOL
still waiting lol
Quoting Kristina40:


Another worry...


We WERE enjoying unseasonably dry weather here in LA..but now..bands of tropical rain...and darn humid...95L will pump the moisture in from the FL rain disturbances and suck the dry in from the Western gulf emptying that dry zone just in time for a 96L possible approach...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If he is right I'll do something nice, lol.


Guess we're about to find out.
probably doing a special advisory thats why its taking long
Quoting wfyweather:
ive never seen it this late


Probably never watched it this close.
5174. xcool
btwntx08 YOU FIND OUT

Prob be somthing like this.

Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie.
Quoting btwntx08:
probably doing a special advisory thats why its taking long
There isn't anything that warrants a special advisory, especially not 95L.
Quoting ElConando:

Prob be somthing like this.

Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie.


LMAO
what if they did it after 8 lol
Quoting ElConando:

Prob be somthing like this.

Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie.
roflmao...or maybe they upgrade it red- 98%
5180. Patrap
I bet the NHC guy ready to Hit "Post" is smirking big time.

Now?

How bout now?

really..wait?

Quoting Hurricanes101:


LMAO


That's pretty much the same warning I got for Claudette last year.
Geez, Still two min. before the hour and calling them late?
5183. beell
Thought this site might be useful if you have the ICAO station ID. But it seems like they can't keep time well. Maybe it will get straighter, later.

The 6:43PM obs was posted long before 6:43PM CDT
Cozumel Surface Obs (MMCZ-Cozumel International)

ESE @ 8knots
1009.5 mb
MMCZ


Latest obs for this one showing 8:45PM, July 5th? What time zone?

Cancun Surface Obs (MMUN-Cancun International)
Calm
1009.1
MMUN

ICAO 4-Letter Identifiers for
Bahamas/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico
Ike is quick on the trigger. He will post it first!
Quoting ElConando:

Prob be somthing like this.

Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie.
LMAO!
Quoting ElConando:

Prob be somthing like this.

Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie.


LOL
1 minute
Nice spin localizing around 86w 20n...
Maybe the NHC guys and gals are all trapped in the "disagreement" room...lol
first advisory maybe ts bonnie has formed then if its inland then td bonnie this is the last adviosry on it lol
SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
000
ABNT20 KNHC 052358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

5194. FLdewey
Quoting skkippboo:


Probably never watched it this close.


Yah really... geez you'd think we were watching a cat 5 bearing down on a major city. The Earth will continue to rotate after the update.

Or will it? Maybe THAT's the hold up.
5195. calder
000
ABNT20 KNHC 052358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

WTF NEAR 0 PERCENT
LMAO back to near 0% LMAO
Really 0% ?
5199. JLPR2
Quoting ElConando:

Prob be somthing like this.

Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie.


haha! XD
now that would make me laugh till tomorrow :P
Surprisingly,18z HWRF doesnt develop 96L significantly and takes it into upper
Texas coast in about 4 days.

Quoting Patrap:
I bet the NHC guy ready to Hit "Post" is smirking big time.

LOL
5202. xcool
LMAO
from 0 too 60 back too 0 lol
5204. Patrap
Snicker..ack..

hee,hee..

"Tropical Storm Bonnie has recently made landfall in Louisiana. You guys should have taken shelter." - Stewart.
5206. cg2916
Ha, back down to 0 for 95L.

This reminds me so much of 90L from 2009. It was code red, then all of a sudden code yellow because it was moving inland.
What was the point even in bringing it to 60%? Sheesh.
No circle for the Antilles wave.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO!


LOLOL Bonnie is..here..gone...LOLOL but darn ruined my day in the sun!
way ta go nhc
5211. cg2916
Quoting CybrTeddy:
What was the point even in bringing it to 60%? Sheesh.


Dunno.
5212. aquak9
elconando- that was awesome!
tell ike not too
I think the NHC has gone nuts this year :P.. 60% to 0%.. way to go!
Really?? At 5:10 there is a 60% chance of tropical cyclone development with the low in the Gulf. The new advisory...0% chance. Wow...that's a new one.
Alright, I'm going to call it. 95L's RIP.. finally.
HA HA LOL YELLOW 0% AND 30% ORANNGE

5218. Patrap
back to near zero
My question to the NHC:

If you are just going to put it right back to 0%, what's the purpose of raising it to 60%.

I've got a feeling that mister "STEWART" is going to get an ear fold by the big honcho.
5222. cg2916
Quoting reedzone:
I think the NHC has gone nuts this year :P.. 60% to 0%.. way to go!


We've seen this before in 90L from last year.
Canotore just said that winds are TS force but it is coming ashore now and it is not widespread so won't be classified. Mentioned that it is a problem for the oil recovery and has been all week.
5224. bappit
Quoting reedzone:
I think the NHC has gone nuts this year :P.. 60% to 0%.. way to go!

When it goes inland ...
Looks like forecasters STEWART/CANGIALOSI's coloring contest didn't go over too well last night...this one is pretty conservative, imo...kimberlain like, even...
for those u posted the TWO miami was the only allowed to post it no one else
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Alright, I'm going to call it. 95L's RIP.. finally.
I wouldn't call it RIP until it is no longer able to cause any damage or flooding. Until then maybe not a tropical system but still alive and kicking.
5228. cg2916
What warranted a 60% in the first place?
Ok, everybody back in their chairs yet?
keep track on disturbances:Link
5231. xcool
now you know why i was lol
The NHC page hasn't even updated yet, so cool down.
5234. bappit
Quoting CybrTeddy:
What was the point even in bringing it to 60%? Sheesh.

Maybe the point is named Humberto. Whatever. Fortunately we don't have anything important to argue about.
near zero percent is not zero percent.

95L still has a chance. Do not write off 95L. This could do terrible, terrible damage as it crosses lake Ponchy it could become a hurricane.


.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

NOT!
"Go to tropics chat"- Eddye
5237. calder
good god people. Think about it. 95L suddenly started trying to organise and it looked to the nhc like it might be able to make depression status before landfall - hence the special advisory at 60%... Now since we're close to coc landfall and the system isn't yet a depression hence the percentage drops to near 0. Is it really that hard to comprehend?
From 0% to 60% back to 0%

I would like some of the stuff the NHC is on
5239. bappit
Quoting cg2916:
What warranted a 60% in the first place?

The little system was intensifying. Patrap posted a nice radar loop on it.
5240. Patrap
Quoting cg2916:
What warranted a 60% in the first place?


Musta been my YouTube video from 4:30 pm CDT
Sure looks like something will happen in the gulf soon enough.

BONNIE RED ALERT!!!!!
(cancelled)




A lot of dissapointed people........
5245. calder
Quoting btwntx08:
for those u posted the TWO miami was the only allowed to post it no one else


oh really? u should probably email admin. actually from now on i'm the only one allowed to speculate exaggerated percentages...
Just updated, my bad. Post season analysis could reveal a sub tropical depression instead. Onto 96L, which is showing signs of development, although this could be a theme like last night where it looked good and then fizzled. Tomorrow morning will be interesting near DMAX.
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
A lot of dissapointed people........


In the end that got it right IMO

not disappointed here
5249. xcool
Tazmanian LOL
So is he going to give Iran some new rockets to advance O'bamas muslim agenda?
Quoting Seastep:
OK. For the 95L... and life... and such... knock it off.

You obviously don't live in FL.

Is it a weather event? Yes. Watch the weather, but this should not be something raising alarm.

This is from a storm (that's 150mph anchorage) that came through my neighborhood about a month ago.



95L is not going to produce that. Not even close.

If someone is not watching the weather and knowing that they are going to get some rain and wind, well, tough.

I guess the bottom line is, it is not something that needs to be prepared for.

Anyone in a hurricane effected area that is "really" concerned about this needs to move.

Looks nice, though. ;)


Seastep....Informative MAIL
Yawn
LOL that's hilarious. 0% to 60% to 0%? LOL
Quoting itrackstorms:
5000 posts

We are in serious need of a new blog.
It's ridiculous. And disturbing to think about what happens when we get close to a landfalling strong cyclone in the US mainland. Admin does need to do something and I expect they will.
.
.
In the meantime, we have some serial posters that need to show some self-restraint instead of posting every last thing that enters their head.
Quoting btwntx08:
for those u posted the TWO miami was the only allowed to post it no one else

plz edit the two except miami plz it was an order for one TWO only
We need a new blog, now.
The NHC is out to lunch...
5258. calder
Quoting CosmicEvents:
It's ridiculous. And disturbing to think about what happens when we get close to a landfalling strong cyclone in the US mainland. Admin does need to do something and I expect they will.
.
.
In the meantime, we have some serial posters that need to show some self-restraint instead of posting every last thing that enters their head.


agreed wholeheartedly. They know who they are...
5200+ comments!
5260. aquak9
From 0% to 60% back to 0%

if this is what we have to look forward to this Season™ from the NHC....

Where's my magic eight-ball?
Quoting btwntx08:

plz edit the two except miami plz it was an order for one TWO only



now look here we can post has many twos has we need too
Wow, I must be a weather dweeb too. Can't pull myself away from the BLOG. J/K LOL
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
From 0% to 60% back to 0%

I would like some of the stuff the NHC is on


Why?
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W MOVING
SLOWLY W-NW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
12N-22N BETWEEN 83W-91W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WAVE...WHILE A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...MOST OF CUBA...AND AN AREA FOCUSED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 22N-28N
BETWEEN 76W-86W. WHILE A SURFACE CIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO
DEFINE...A BROAD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON CANCUN RADAR
THIS EVENING NEAR 19N96W...OR ABOUT 80 NM SE OF COZUMEL. IT
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME AND CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND WESTERN CUBA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
From 0% to 60% back to 0%

I would like some of the stuff the NHC is on

well its not legal
Quoting calder:


oh really? u should probably email admin. actually from now on i'm the only one allowed to speculate exaggerated percentages...

u shouldve read post 5111 that will make things better
5267. calder
Quoting btwntx08:

plz edit the two except miami plz it was an order for one TWO only


***NO***
I know this is off topic,but could someone plz tell me why FLdeway thinks my name is a disquise?

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 052358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



5270. palmpt
Quoting xcool:
NHC F-- JOKE

Xcool is uncool.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


In the end that got it right IMO

not disappointed here


Yeah the drop back to 0% was expected.. that STWO should have never been posted and we knew that from the time it was posted.. not surprised nor disappointed.


Honestly though I am kinda baffled by the NHC. If they brought it up 30% that would've been understandable, but that doesn't warrant a STWO, which is why it wasn't needed. While it was definitely detaching and whatnot that 60% was way overboard IMO.
Quoting Tazmanian:



now look here we can post has many twos has we need too


LOL
5273. Patrap
Quoting calder:
good god people. Think about it. 95L suddenly started trying to organise and it looked to the nhc like it might be able to make depression status before landfall - hence the special advisory at 60%... Now since we're close to coc landfall and the system isn't yet a depression hence the percentage drops to near 0. Is it really that hard to comprehend?


I tried Logic here once..

And well..that didnt pan out too well.
Quoting aquak9:
From 0% to 60% back to 0%

if this is what we have to look forward to this Season™ from the NHC....

Where's my magic eight-ball?


You mean 95L? It made landfall. It looks like a subtropical storm.
5276. JLPR2
Quoting btwntx08:

plz edit the two except miami plz it was an order for one TWO only


No, it was suggestion, if people want to post it, let them post it, you are making more posts about not posting it that the ones with the Two and this one is also a waste of space LOL!
5278. xcool
palmpt .it call Freedom of speech
As has already been pointed out, they bumped it up because there was a chance that it could pop before making landfall. Now that it IS making landfall and didn't intensify enough, the chance is ZERO. This isn't some tinfoil hat C/T.
5280. calder
Quoting Patrap:


I tried Logic here once..

And well..that didnt pan out too well.


i think the concept of percentage is lost on most of the blog
5281. xcool
Tazmanian jfv is here
Sooooo entertaining, this weather blog is. Well, enough entertainment. Think I'll work on the storm shutters for the new house. Back later and lurk some more.
95L can still do some stuff to SE LA flooding and minor damage could happen as this continues inland.
Quoting STORMTOPII:
The NHC is out to lunch...


It was a cute little gale center.

Better to give 60% warning in an oil-soaked GOM.
now... back to 96L
Quoting Tazmanian:
i have not seen JFV all day likey other banned


Thank God...
Quoting mrsalagranny:
I know this is off topic,but could someone plz tell me why FLdeway thinks my name is a disquise?
Sweetheart I have no "Idea"
and "Not Smart" if you know what i mean....


Taco :o)
I'm out till the blog regains some sanity.
I think it is as ridiculous to give 95L a 0% chance now as it was at the 2:00 TWO. The forming COC is lingering on the coast and has been for 2 hours. It seems to be moving NW, along the coast, and could still develop further. I'm not saying it will reach TD status, but I am saying it deserves better than 0%. NHC is cocky today.
Robert, I accidentally flagged one of your posts. If admin's give you any grief it was an accident and meant for the post above yours. I'm sure they will see your post was not inflammatory or off topic though. Having mouse issues.
Quoting weathermancer:


It was a cute little gale center.

Better to give 60% warning in an oil-soaked GOM.
now... back to 96L


They should have given more warning. IMO
Quoting Patrap:


I tried Logic here once..

And well..that didnt pan out too well.
Did you really think it would?
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
A lot of dissapointed people........

no one isnt really disapointed we all knew it wasnt gonna be classified
Quoting xcool:
palmpt .it call Freedom of speech
It's called going against the "Rules of the Road". Don't curse unless you want a *cue music* "Perma Ban!"
WOW, gotta go, bye folks, be back later, hopefully have a fresh new blog to scroll through.
Folks: Where does 95L's moisture go next? Any chance it ends up in north central Texas?
These are not betting odds. =)


1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
Taz - did you do that on purpose? (call him out of hiding?)
Quoting ElConando:
95L can still do some stuff to SE LA flooding and minor damage could happen as this continues inland.
New models have tropical storm hitting central tx.coast now..
5301. xcool
MiamiHurric -Freedom of speech
18Z runs

how about that lol look all


Link
Quoting ElConando:
I'm out till the blog regains some sanity.
How can we be serious with a face like that?
5305. calder
back to 96L... now it's percentage chance is 30%. Now this means that 3 times out of 10 this system will develop into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. Everybody following?

Now, are there any new rules about who can post what at what times and with what regularity? No, I didn't think so.

Goodnight from bonnie scotland, this blog fries my brain... Im out.
Quoting ElConando:
95L can still do some stuff to SE LA flooding and minor damage could happen as this continues inland.


GOES 13 Sat shown WNW direction for COC running parallel along coast...will impact oil along the full length of LA wetlands..pushing oil further inland...that is bad news...it may well pull it westward into areas that had little oil before today.
Thank you dear for your response.Im not trying to disquise myself for anyone.Im a happy granny of one.But its ok.Now back to weather.
5308. whs2012
So, when do you expect 96L to intensify into a TD? The NHC only gave it a 30% chance in the next 48 hours...I guess because it's going over the Yucatan, but I think it should be able to intensify..maybe...into a TD tonight/tomorrow morning.
5309. FLdewey
Quoting Patrap:


I tried Logic here once..

And well..that didnt pan out too well.


LOL... twas worth a shot.
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
18Z runs



I think 96L's center has relocated farther to the south.
5311. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
how about that lol look all


Link


No surprise there :P
5312. cg2916
Quoting ElConando:
I'm out till the blog regains some sanity.


Don't worry, it won't.
5313. cg2916
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
18Z runs



VERY consistent on a N TX landfall, and it doesn't even have an LLC yet!
Quoting xcool:
MiamiHurric -Freedom of speech
There is a difference between freedom of speech and disrespect. Curse all ya' want, I'm not the one that's going to banned.
Quoting Barnabas:
Folks: Where does 95L's moisture go next? Any chance it ends up in north central Texas?


Yes..most likely it will...
5316. whs2012
Hardcoreweather2010,

Isn't that the old model runs? I think the COC shifted to the West.
5317. xcool
MiamiHurri drop it
5318. aquak9
Zombie alert- code red
Well MH09 do you know what this means it mean that that BEST track data was tracking the mid level circulation and the Low Level circulation should still be in the Caribbean maybe it is where me and Stormpet been seeing or somewhere near there maybe hopfully 96L can stall and get better looking during D-MAX maybe a new MLC can develop over the LLC then thing will start to ramp up
5320. Grothar
Small flare-up Southeast of 95L in the last few frames

5321. Patrap

Quoting Kristina40:
Robert, I accidentally flagged one of your posts. If admin's give you any grief it was an accident and meant for the post above yours. I'm sure they will see your post was not inflammatory or off topic though. Having mouse issues.


Accidentally "poofed" and "flagged" in the same evening! WOW I must be earning some "respect" in here! lol

..you're forgiven, Kristina, but I'll haunt you if I lose my handle... j/k
96L appears to be becoming better organized. The "center" relocation has helped the system. Look for a good DMAX tonight. If it gets it, it could start to develop/strengthen more quickly.
5325. Patrap
Quoting xcool:
MiamiHurri drop it

he just showing u a difference is all
5327. bakers
no major computer models forcast tropical cyclone development into mid july. historically speaking the first half of july is inactive. this year is no different. it is moving along as it should quite average.
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Thank you dear for your response.Im not trying to disquise myself for anyone.Im a happy granny of one.But its ok.Now back to weather.


You are so welcome sweetie. I also think we will
be getting more rain from 95L as it pushes moisture
from our East toward the west arcross Alabama.

Taco :o)
Taz why does it say this blog has been blocked by ADMINS?
5333. xcool
btwntx08 .so .iknow
5334. IKE
Correct call by the NHC holding 96L at 30%....

Quoting AllStar17:


I think 96L's center has relocated farther to the south.

i agree its a bit father south then that
5336. aquak9
grothar- SANITY!!!

robertm- one poof and one flag is no big deal. You're fine.

But when you start saying "poof" to your coworkers....
Quoting Patrap:


note...COC still offshore..barely..running WNW or stalled...
5338. bappit
Quoting Barnabas:
Folks: Where does 95L's moisture go next? Any chance it ends up in north central Texas?

From the Fort Worth discussion:

Went ahead and placed vcsh in after 21z tomorrow as a low pressure system currently off the la coast will move northwest towards North Texas over the next 48 hours. Whether the system actually makes it here or not it is expected to send a tropical plume of moisture west into North Texas by tomorrow afternoon. 18z model runs were more aggressive with this moisture return which has increased confidence in precipitation chances for tomorrow afternoon.
5339. xcool
i'm not go be like jfv keep get new names .
Quoting taco2me61:


You are so welcome sweetie. I also think we will
be getting more rain from 95L as it pushes moisture
from our East toward the west arcross Alabama.

Taco :o)


Hey Taco!
Quoting SiestaCpl:


note...COC still offshore..barely..running WNW or stalled...


NHC says it made landfall
5342. FLdewey
Poor taco has taken the bait... hook, line and sinker.

This blog is reaching stage 5 on the freakout scale.
Quoting RobertM320:


Accidentally "poofed" and "flagged" in the same evening! WOW I must be earning some "respect" in here! lol

..you're forgiven, Kristina, but I'll haunt you if I lose my handle... j/k
LOL, don't worry about it. If you get a lot of those flagged a lot though is when you'll get a 24 hour ban.
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 .so .iknow

hes just trying to help u is all no harm
5345. leo305
on radar 95L looks like its moving WNW over water, but the NHC said its inland?
Anyone have legitimate coordinates on 96L ?
5347. leo305
Quoting Hurricanes101:


NHC says it made landfall


radar says otherwise though
Quoting bappit:

From the Fort Worth discussion:

Went ahead and placed vcsh in after 21z tomorrow as a low pressure system currently off the la coast will move northwest towards North Texas over the next 48 hours. Whether the system actually makes it here or not it is expected to send a tropical plume of moisture west into North Texas by tomorrow afternoon. 18z model runs were more aggressive with this moisture return which has increased confidence in precipitation chances for tomorrow afternoon.

Both 95L & 96L will provide the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX area with pretty decent rain chances :o)-build that ark!!
Sooooo.... I say we all head to Hurricanes101's blog to do some hurricane trivia.
Quoting aquak9:
Zombie alert- code red


Am I considered a zombie because I only post once in a while?
5353. IKE
Quoting Topography:


who the HELL are you calling, JFV???? I am not that individual, ok, taz? clearly, you must be him, since you are always mentioning him on here. Continue to accsue me of being him, and I will report you to teh admin. I am not that infamous fellow. You've got some nerve.



Hmmm.
5354. docrod
Quoting IKE:
Correct call by the NHC holding 96L at 30%....



Hope my Texas coast friends are watching. BTW - who roused the rabble around here. Just check back in after a 3 hour time out and whoa. Time to pop more corn and put on another movie. - take care - outta here.
Here's Joey B's take on 95 this afternoon.

There is no change to my idea on the system in the northern gulf, it is doing what it was supposed to do, but if anything, we are getting a prime example of what is wrong with TPC and why my two suggested ideas.. 1 on how to classify ( closed rotary circulation, gales in on quad and 2) how to judge the intensity of the storm, incorporating pressure and pressure tendency on a 1-10 scale would be better. In any case a forecaster came in and saw what all saw, that this had a vigorous low to mid level circulation that could cause strong winds in a small area, so he upgraded. What should have been done before could have been handled with special tropical disturbance statements, rather than just blowing it off as a 10% chance. That is not to say it should be named, it is to say that the perception is that there is a sudden jump in intensity, when that is plainly not the case! What happened was a change of the shift and someone looking hard at the data and making a judgement call. Of course you and I have to react, to I have to let all my clients know that its the same as has been described, the weather has not changed, just the forecaster for TPC did and decided to handle it differently

You get what I am talking about. And this person has had several "experiences" where he walked into a hornets nest... a storm that was developing without the previous shift even saying anything. For you Texans.. remember the morning of Allison, the 5 am bulletin, or Humberto?

But like I said, if Alex is any indication, we are in for a long season, and I am talking not only about the actual weather, but the explanations I will have to give. It would be funny if it werent so serious, but it has spread to other matters, non weather related ( I dont know how much more economic recovery I can take over here... I feel guilty the way things have been going so good there too)

I am developing a dark side

Now the most obvious problem in the northwest gulf is still forecasted to not line up the low and mid level centers enough so that it wont be a big storm. But here is the problem and why the area from Corpus Christi to the Louisiana coast should be concerned. These large scale pattern development systems need time to develop. One can plainly see a mid level rotation center east of the northern coast of the Yucatan. Gales are being reported from ships south of the west tip of Cuba where the low and mid level flows are lined up. But the system leans southeast from the low level center near the northeast coast of the Yucatan to the mid level center. If such a system were to line up, look out, another case of rapid feedback development. I dont think this will have the time. However I do think and area of tropical storm conditions, with gales and heavy rains, will pinwheel on the right side of the system, and that means the threat of 6-12 hours of heavy rain... and no matter how its classified ( after what we have been seeing, who knows, right) tropical storm like conditions on the upper Texas or Louisiana coast later Wednesday or Thursday


Now, here is why New England has to sleep with one eye open ( Canadian maritimes too) The upper low that is well east of the coast will back southwest the next several days and entrain the energy from the tropical wave near Puerto Rico. There is plenty of heat around, no doubt about that, the ocean is boiling off the east coast relative to the time of the year. With a major ridge building over the central Atlantic and a trough in the middle of the nation, the area southeast of Hatteras would be a nice place for this wave to get entrained into a falling pressure field caused by the upper low backing, and feedback and develop. A TPC nightmare of course since they tend to ignore things like that, and then its a 50-50 chance if it ever gets classified ( Jersey Devil) anyway. But there is some African influence here and the MJO is locked in octant 2, so one never can be sure if the whack a mole pattern doesnt deliver in cases like this.

Notes and asides: I see the polar temp has been below normal much of the summer
5356. calder
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Anyone have legitimate coordinates on 96L ?


no real legitimate coords as multiple vortices still trying to consolidate. There are plenty of guesses though
Quoting leo305:
on radar 95L looks like its moving WNW over water, but the NHC said its inland?

I'm with you on this. I'm not ready to write off 95L. As long as the COC is over water, it has a risk of developing. It seems to be hugging the coastline and further closing its circulation.
Quoting mobilebayal:


Hey Taco!

Hey There Mobilebay... You staying dry today???
Although it has been very "Hot & Sticky" this aternoon....

Taco :o)
5359. FLdewey
Quoting Topography:


who the HELL are you calling, JFV???? I am not that individual, ok, taz? clearly, you must be him, since you are always mentioning him on here. Continue to accsue me of being him, and I will report you to teh admin. I am not that infamous fellow. You've got some nerve.


Take it easy... Taz calls everyone JFV at least once... it's like an initiation.
5360. xcool
guess time go back new website here go drama .
5361. aquak9
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Anyone have legitimate coordinates on 96L ?


that's like asking for legitimate answers from BP.
Back to zero again. They just can't make up their minds.
5363. aquak9
whoa...angry zombie.
Lol. Ok, although this blog is giving me a good laugh, it's time to head out.
Quoting FLdewey:


Take it easy... Taz calls everyone JFV at least once... it's like an initiation.
It gets old!
5367. JLPR2
Quoting IKE:



Hmmm.


yeah, it couldn't be more obvious LOL!

I recommend a grammar check plug-in for firefox XD
Quoting taco2me61:

Hey There Mobilebay... You staying dry today???
Although it has been very "Hot & Sticky" this aternoon....

Taco :o)

We had one quick shower around 5pm. Did you go to any of the beaches today?
5369. xcool
all drama & jfv get old .
Quoting Topography:


who the HELL are you calling, JFV???? I am not that individual, ok, taz? clearly, you must be him, since you are always mentioning him on here. Continue to accsue me of being him, and I will report you to teh admin. I am not that infamous fellow. You've got some nerve.


???
5371. calder
Quoting aquak9:
whoa...angry zombie.


ignored. byebye
Quoting Hurricanes101:


NHC says it made landfall


Yes... and they are..well not always that exact...as it can touch the shore will the COC and then turn West ..as it did and lose contact with the coast..in any case it did not continue inland as you can see on any radar loop...as far as threat..it is minimal but it will continue to moisten the atmosphere towards TX in advance of any other storm that comes into the gulf this week.
Quoting aquak9:


that's like asking for legitimate answers from BP.
Since there are no actual coord, then you can throw ALL the models out. No correct location to initialize.
5374. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol. Ok, although this blog is giving me a good laugh, it's time to head out.


Yeah, its entertaining. XD
Quoting taco2me61:


You are so welcome sweetie. I also think we will
be getting more rain from 95L as it pushes moisture
from our East toward the west arcross Alabama.

Taco :o)
We have finally gotten a lil break in Semmes right now.I know more is on the way.LOL!!!!!!!
5376. aquak9
oh who can leave with this sort of excitement?
5377. calder
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Since there are no actual coord, then you can throw ALL the models out. No correct location to initialize.


exactly
5378. Grothar
Quoting aquak9:
grothar- SANITY!!!

robertm- one poof and one flag is no big deal. You're fine.

But when you start saying "poof" to your coworkers....


Hey, aqua, Hope that was a compliment. I very rarely get accused of sanity. Strange mood tonight on the blog.
Off for dinner here....enjoy all! Quite the season to watch...calm is needed by all to keep this a useable space for all...
5381. Patrap
Snorrrrrrrrrrrrrrre...

...Klunk!
5382. bappit
Quoting Patrap:


I tried Logic here once..

And well..that didnt pan out too well.

Practice makes perfect. :)
Quoting Patrap:
Snorrrrrrrrrrrrrrre...

...Klunk!


Passing you a glass of something strong on the way to dinner....
5385. IKE
Quoting xcool:
all drama & jfv get old .


So does vulgarity.


Quoting aquak9:
oh who can leave with this sort of excitement?


LOL....nothing on TV this entertaining.
Quoting aquak9:
oh who can leave with this sort of excitement?
It's like a drug isn't it Aqua
Why are we posting pictures of Ferris Bueller?
5389. Patrap


Hey wgy did you say my name was a disquise?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
What was the point even in bringing it to 60%? Sheesh.
I think they should have put 10%
Quoting FLdewey:



you been re ported
5395. xcool
KEEPEROFTHEGATE so .i'm not jfv jr here
5396. Patrap
my eyes are lost ..forever.
it burns,,,it burns I tell yas


5397. key360
97L

Link
5398. aquak9
calder- thank you!!!

grother- yes a compliment.

ike- pass the bottle
Quoting mobilebayal:

We had one quick shower around 5pm. Did you go to any of the beaches today?

No I'm still on call and had to work all day
:o(

I will be going this weekend to take some pictures though....
I need to know how the clean-up is going...
No rain at my house at 5pm but could hear thunder...
How was your day?

Taco :o)
5400. xcool
FLdewey lol
Where is the new blog?

"My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening."
Quoting btwntx08:

we know who u r..we can tell by that u spell the(teh)liar



good show
9N 39W ... interesting ....

5404. whs2012
How do you guys even get into big arguments like this? roflmao! This is a WEATHER forum calm down! I understand a debate, but like really? OMG, hilarious! :D

And for the blogger who said:

"Who the hell are you calling JFV?!!!!"


Like really...calm down! I thought you were the one who said to stop fighting! Ignore him!!!!
It seems like this nonsense starts the same time each night. I may have to rethink my ignore list.
5407. FLdewey
Quoting Kristina40:
Why are we posting pictures of Ferris Bueller?


FTW!
Quoting xcool:
guess time go back new website here go drama .

btw did u tell ike
5409. Patrap
Quoting SiestaCpl:


Passing you a glass of something strong on the way to dinner....


Ty...phew.

I was a bit pekid..
Quoting IKE:


So does vulgarity.




LOL....nothing on TV this entertaining.
I'm watching Napoleon Dynamite while looking at the blog! Trying to figure out who on this blog best fits his character. I'm thinking 3 letters and its not JFV!
5411. IKE
Quoting Kristina40:
It seems like this nonsense starts the same time each night. I may have to rethink my ignore list.


Best time to be on here is early morning....5-9 am.
5412. calder
So I'm not a 'ghost' on the blog anymore. I'm Dave, from Scotland UK. I'm 24, have a degree in aeronautical engineering and am currently studying another degree in meteorology. I don't want to offend anyone on the blog so sorry if my rant did. Goodnight, I'll see you all tomorrow
Hi there everyone! I posted the last couple of years as stormwatcherTX but cannot seem to login to my account anymore, it just won't recognize my passwords. So here I am again.

Anyway I didn't think much of Alex and felt there was little chance of it coming here to Texas, perhaps Brownsville at best, but I had my doubts since it was crossing pretty far over the Yucatan and there is a general trend of storms like that moving into Mexico. Alex was of course no exception.

Invest 96L, is quite a different matter! This is a serious threat to Galveston amd Houston. It is worth looking at a recent study by Rice University about how a Hurricane right now would cause devastating damage to Houston.

I won't blow my own trumpet, but as a keen weather amateur, I called Ike exactly, when others didn't. Houston TV weathermen shamefully got it wrong right up to the day it struck. OK too early too say, but I think this is a big threat to the city of Galveston.

I note that 5 of the spaghetti tracks take it close to Galveston and the Houston ship channel, which would pose a considerable flooding threat to the city. One other points to about Corpus Christi, and the last into Mexico. If this thing only clips the Yucatan as I suspect, I doubt it will go to Mexico. Watch out Texas!
Good evening Storm.Good to see ya again.What is your thinking on 96l?
Can anyone tell me if 96L has made any progress towards developing?
5416. xcool
IKE so true.
Quoting IKE:


Best time to be on here is early morning....5-9 am.


I've noticed. Still, ya'll have an awesome blog here and I truly enjoy it.
This place is starting to sound like USENET
nuthin but zombies and crybabies
5420. whs2012
Baytown. This is why Ike ignored you, and this is why more of the blog is going to ignore you.
5421. Patrap
Were awaiting the 00Z runs batch a rooni's so the 18 Z stuff is 6 hours old.
Quoting skkippboo:


How do they let you know?

they will "nest"...scratch in the same area, pace in a circle, then "settle in"
Look all, I'm a newbie here so I sure don't have any "weather creds" but I come here for some good information and to gain knowledge. Many of us are new here because of the oil slick and the improved conditions for tropical activity this season. We are going to focus on anything in the Gulf, and understandably so. I have no idea why we can't focus on more than one thing and leave the meta nonsense for facebook.
5426. Ossqss
Steps in reads back and heads out >>> :)


5427. aquak9
StormW- go enjoy your dinner. Just walk away...you'll sleep better, I promise.
5429. whs2012
NEW BLOG GUYS!!! FINALLY!!!!
Yes Sir,I will stay on however long it takes.
Quoting whs2012:
Baytown. This is why Ike ignored you, and this is why more of the blog is going to ignore you.

not really first of all im not from baytown and second of all yesterday it was a misunderstanding i was pissed at something and it showed here and he thought it will bad for him which it wasnt this is a misunderstanding and ike needs to know that
Quoting aquak9:
Zombie alert- code red


target aguired
lockon confirmed
empty space about to be create
just like whats in there head
NEW BLOG THANK GOD
Just reminder...new blog
You mean this bar, I mean blog is closed!
5438. bakers
Quoting txsweetpea:
Can anyone tell me if 96L has made any progress towards developing?


96l will not develope at all.
5439. bakers
Quoting txsweetpea:
Can anyone tell me if 96L has made any progress towards developing?
Has everyone given up on 95L? It's moving along the coast and continuing to close off its COC. Sure seems to deserve better than a 0% chance!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's Joey B's take on 95 this afternoon.

There is no change to my idea on the system in the northern gulf, it is doing what it was supposed to do, but if anything, we are getting a prime example of what is wrong with TPC and why my two suggested ideas.. 1 on how to classify ( closed rotary circulation, gales in on quad and 2) how to judge the intensity of the storm, incorporating pressure and pressure tendency on a 1-10 scale would be better. In any case a forecaster came in and saw what all saw, that this had a vigorous low to mid level circulation that could cause strong winds in a small area, so he upgraded. What should have been done before could have been handled with special tropical disturbance statements, rather than just blowing it off as a 10% chance. That is not to say it should be named, it is to say that the perception is that there is a sudden jump in intensity, when that is plainly not the case! What happened was a change of the shift and someone looking hard at the data and making a judgement call. Of course you and I have to react, to I have to let all my clients know that its the same as has been described, the weather has not changed, just the forecaster for TPC did and decided to handle it differently

You get what I am talking about. And this person has had several "experiences" where he walked into a hornets nest... a storm that was developing without the previous shift even saying anything. For you Texans.. remember the morning of Allison, the 5 am bulletin, or Humberto?

But like I said, if Alex is any indication, we are in for a long season, and I am talking not only about the actual weather, but the explanations I will have to give. It would be funny if it werent so serious, but it has spread to other matters, non weather related ( I dont know how much more economic recovery I can take over here... I feel guilty the way things have been going so good there too)

I am developing a dark side

Now the most obvious problem in the northwest gulf is still forecasted to not line up the low and mid level centers enough so that it wont be a big storm. But here is the problem and why the area from Corpus Christi to the Louisiana coast should be concerned. These large scale pattern development systems need time to develop. One can plainly see a mid level rotation center east of the northern coast of the Yucatan. Gales are being reported from ships south of the west tip of Cuba where the low and mid level flows are lined up. But the system leans southeast from the low level center near the northeast coast of the Yucatan to the mid level center. If such a system were to line up, look out, another case of rapid feedback development. I dont think this will have the time. However I do think and area of tropical storm conditions, with gales and heavy rains, will pinwheel on the right side of the system, and that means the threat of 6-12 hours of heavy rain... and no matter how its classified ( after what we have been seeing, who knows, right) tropical storm like conditions on the upper Texas or Louisiana coast later Wednesday or Thursday


Now, here is why New England has to sleep with one eye open ( Canadian maritimes too) The upper low that is well east of the coast will back southwest the next several days and entrain the energy from the tropical wave near Puerto Rico. There is plenty of heat around, no doubt about that, the ocean is boiling off the east coast relative to the time of the year. With a major ridge building over the central Atlantic and a trough in the middle of the nation, the area southeast of Hatteras would be a nice place for this wave to get entrained into a falling pressure field caused by the upper low backing, and feedback and develop. A TPC nightmare of course since they tend to ignore things like that, and then its a 50-50 chance if it ever gets classified ( Jersey Devil) anyway. But there is some African influence here and the MJO is locked in octant 2, so one never can be sure if the whack a mole pattern doesnt deliver in cases like this.

Notes and asides: I see the polar temp has been below normal much of the summer
R U kiddin me?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
My question to the NHC:

If you are just going to put it right back to 0%, what's the purpose of raising it to 60%.

I've got a feeling that mister "STEWART" is going to get an ear fold by the big honcho.

moved
Joe Bastardi re-post. He makes a good point about the TPC and their very arbitrary ways of doing things. The following is from his blog this afternoon.



There is no change to my idea on the system in the northern gulf, it is doing what it was supposed to do, but if anything, we are getting a prime example of what is wrong with TPC and why my two suggested ideas.. 1 on how to classify ( closed rotary circulation, gales in on quad and 2) how to judge the intensity of the storm, incorporating pressure and pressure tendency on a 1-10 scale would be better. In any case a forecaster came in and saw what all saw, that this had a vigorous low to mid level circulation that could cause strong winds in a small area, so he upgraded. What should have been done before could have been handled with special tropical disturbance statements, rather than just blowing it off as a 10% chance. That is not to say it should be named, it is to say that the perception is that there is a sudden jump in intensity, when that is plainly not the case! What happened was a change of the shift and someone looking hard at the data and making a judgement call. Of course you and I have to react, to I have to let all my clients know that its the same as has been described, the weather has not changed, just the forecaster for TPC did and decided to handle it differently

You get what I am talking about. And this person has had several "experiences" where he walked into a hornets nest... a storm that was developing without the previous shift even saying anything. For you Texans.. remember the morning of Allison, the 5 am bulletin, or Humberto?

But like I said, if Alex is any indication, we are in for a long season, and I am talking not only about the actual weather, but the explanations I will have to give. It would be funny if it werent so serious, but it has spread to other matters, non weather related ( I dont know how much more economic recovery I can take over here... I feel guilty the way things have been going so good there too)

I am developing a dark side

Now the most obvious problem in the northwest gulf is still forecasted to not line up the low and mid level centers enough so that it wont be a big storm. But here is the problem and why the area from Corpus Christi to the Louisiana coast should be concerned. These large scale pattern development systems need time to develop. One can plainly see a mid level rotation center east of the northern coast of the Yucatan. Gales are being reported from ships south of the west tip of Cuba where the low and mid level flows are lined up. But the system leans southeast from the low level center near the northeast coast of the Yucatan to the mid level center. If such a system were to line up, look out, another case of rapid feedback development. I dont think this will have the time. However I do think and area of tropical storm conditions, with gales and heavy rains, will pinwheel on the right side of the system, and that means the threat of 6-12 hours of heavy rain... and no matter how its classified ( after what we have been seeing, who knows, right) tropical storm like conditions on the upper Texas or Louisiana coast later Wednesday or Thursday


Now, here is why New England has to sleep with one eye open ( Canadian maritimes too) The upper low that is well east of the coast will back southwest the next several days and entrain the energy from the tropical wave near Puerto Rico. There is plenty of heat around, no doubt about that, the ocean is boiling off the east coast relative to the time of the year. With a major ridge building over the central Atlantic and a trough in the middle of the nation, the area southeast of Hatteras would be a nice place for this wave to get entrained into a falling pressure field caused by the upper low backing, and feedback and develop. A TPC nightmare of course since they tend to ignore things like that, and then its a 50-50 chance if it ever gets classified ( Jersey Devil) anyway. But there is some African influence here and the MJO is locked in octant 2, so one never can be sure if the whack a mole pattern doesnt deliver in cases like this.

Notes and asides: I see the polar temp has been below normal much of the summer
NEW BLOG THIS SHIPS HAS ARRIVED... AND IT IS TIME TO GET TO NEW SHIP.
New blog, guys!...just a reminder..last one out turn out the lights.
Accsue me.
That's a new one.

Meanwhile, looks like wind shear is relaxing in the Carib or is this my magination?


shearmap
Quoting Kristina40:
Look all, I'm a newbie here so I sure don't have any "weather creds" but I come here for some good information and to gain knowledge.


Hi Kristina40, many of us have no more credentials than you have to post here. Don't let the 'spoilers' get you down. I've never felt intimidated here by the PhD's etc... Enjoy! :)
5448. alfabob
Eh the image is kind of ghetto but it does the job:



Location was recorded about an hour ago at ~85.6W, 20.45N. If this portion can keep up with the system, I would have to say it will most likely be the central location of the hurricane.
NEW BLOG!
Evening everyone! Does anyone have a link to a good lightning tracker for Fl.?
Quoting TXStormWatcher2011:


Hi Kristina40, many of us have no more credentials than you have to post here. Don't let the 'spoilers' get you down. I've never felt intimidated here by the PhD's etc... Enjoy! :)

When everybody comes together as one you can learn a lot.