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A sleeping giant: 94L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:00 PM GMT on October 10, 2007

A large low pressure system (94L) has moved inland over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and is bringing heavy rain to Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala. These heavy rains can be viewed on Cancun radar. Satellite loops and the steering flow product from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group (Figure 1) show the large size of this circulation nicely. This is an unusually large and deep low pressure system, and it will take several days for it to spin down. Most of the computer models are indicating that the center will remain over land and 94L will eventually die. However, the GFDL model continues to show the possibility that the center of 94L will drift back into the Western Caribbean, or into the Southern Gulf of Mexico, allowing 94L to intensify into a tropical storm. Considering the huge amount of atmosphere 94L has put into motion, it would not be a surprise to see some of that spin still remaining 3-4 days from now, and we will have to watch this system until that spin is gone. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is expected to remain 10 knots or below for the next 2-3 days over the Yucatan.


Figure 1. Average steering flow at low levels in the atmosphere (between 700 mb and 850 mb) as computed by University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. The arrows show the counter-clockwise flow of air around the low pressure system 94L over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Most of the computer models are forecasting that a low pressure system will develop in the Bahamas along an old cold front on Thursday or Friday, then move rapidly northeastward to Bermuda. This is likely to be an extratropical storm, but could bring wind gusts of 40 mph and heavy rain to Bermuda on Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. JLPR
The MJO, also referred to as the 30-60 day or 40-50 day oscillation, turns out to be the main intra-annual fluctuation that explains weather variations in the tropics. The MJO affects the entire tropical troposphere but is most evident in the Indian and western Pacific Oceans. The MJO involves variations in wind, sea surface temperature (SST), cloudiness, and rainfall. Because most tropical rainfall is convective, and convective cloud tops are very cold (emitting little longwave radiation), the MJO is most obvious in the variation of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), as measured by an infrared sensor on a satellite.

from http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html
Its cool Koritheman. I just get frustrated by the amount of superiorty being thrown around in here. Like Gladiators in the Colosium with ego trips. Its great to make a point but be respectful of others who may or may not share your viewpoint. Debate with fact, not with sarcasm:)Dont make me site Rodney King now..LOL
Thanks,you know your stuff.,
Thanks JLPR for the factful discussion of the MJO
Definitly a T.D....check the I.R. loop its wrappn up quick with a lot of convection to the N.E. anyone else see it???
1007. JLPR
no problem
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

now whats this south of the Cape Verde Islands?
looks like a posible low
Can't believe that shear is only 5 to 10 knots over the entire Caribbean and STILL nothing seems to be able to organise

Something very odd about this season and in particular the last several weeks. Invest after invest and nothing of note.
1006. stillwaiting 2:43 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
Definitly a T.D....check the I.R. loop its wrappn up quick with a lot of convection to the N.E. anyone else see it???

I believe you may be correct.
I agree kman...... there just seems to be missing pieces to the puzzle....

But it is too early to say the season is over..... to do so is possible foolish!
1011. JLPR
dry air doing its work
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
see what when where? LOL
1008. kmanislander 2:47 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
Can't believe that shear is only 5 to 10 knots over the entire Caribbean and STILL nothing seems to be able to organise

Something very odd about this season and in particular the last several weeks. Invest after invest and nothing of note.

Its almost like you just feel something is going to sneak up behind you, and pull your pants down.....lol
Thel

The season is not over. There is a secondary peak in Oct and with La Nina I expect a late season surprise of one more major hurricane

Any time unsettled weather hangs around the Caribbean for days on end this time of year something usually spins up
and a new storm forms when and where no ones looking ...gotta love mother nature(and i mean that!!)
1016. JLPR
that low by the canaries doesnt have significant convection maybe it could be upgraded to invest but i dont see it as a td soon

horrible dry air around that low
Its almost like you just feel something is going to sneak up behind you, and pull your pants down

Precisely LOL
and look at the current sheer its in according to the map on the top of the page
Ok,someone make a good case for more activity for remaining season.
1020. JLPR
yeah it has some 10 to 15kts of shear looks good
all it needs is time to moisten the air a bit around it surely an invest soon but no td unless a big blowup of convection occurs
:)lets wait and see
1019. patriots2007 2:58 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
Ok,someone make a good case for more activity for remaining season.

Patriot--until it gets uncomfrontable to walk into the Atlantic skinnydippin we aren't done....lmao
1022. JLPR
well im out
time to go to bed
goodnight everyone
tomorrow should be interesting if that low gets going
My case is ... season is done here on the upper gulf coast. A good front pushed thru here and off the coast last night and into today bringing with it plenty of dry air and much lower temps. Thats my signal for the end of another "lack luster" season.
I just find it odd that so many invests do not organise. If there was any one feature of note that I have noticed with these invests it is that upper level winds have always been marginal or just right but only for a very short period of time
Its as if conditions have looked right but one critical ingredient was always marginal. By the time that ingredient improved something else unfavourable was in play.

Take 94L. Upper level winds were not really conducive until it got underneath the anticyclone. However, the anticyclone was over land.

I am convinced that when the season is analysed after the fact shear will have been marginally high at the critical times
Ok,someone make a good case for more activity for remaining season.

1. Secondary peak in mid Oct
2. High SST's in the NW Caribbean
3. Strong La Nina
Lack luster season with two category 5s. I just don't understand how people can say that.


It really is amazing how all that convection, in under very weak shear, hasn't developed. I still think something might spin itself up over the next week. But wow, it is amazing that it hasn't happened yet.
1026. mississippiwx23 3:11 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
Lack luster season with two category 5s. I just don't understand how people can say that.


It really is amazing how all that convection, in under very weak shear, hasn't developed. I still think something might spin itself up over the next week. But wow, it is amazing that it hasn't happened yet.

I agree 100%. Its like mother nature is just waiting for everyone to pack it in, then throw a big surprise at us.


Off-topic
ok let me clarify... "lack luster" for U.S landfall..
Not off topic at all. Any topical weather is fair game in this blog. I didn't even know something was going on over there.
I say one more named storm if 94L somehow manages to pop into the GOM... Other than that, stable until November... I think the numbers are pretty much on par with what NOAA predicted in early May... Anything else is just wishcasting... *Awaits onslaught of comments*
These 2 cold fronts will shut down anything East of the Windward islands. But not the GOM and the Carribean.
Goodnite everyone......talk at ya tomorrow.
1024. kmanislander 10:04 PM CDT on October 10, 2007
I just find it odd that so many invests do not organise. If there was any one feature of note that I have noticed with these invests it is that upper level winds have always been marginal or just right but only for a very short period of time
Its as if conditions have looked right but one critical ingredient was always marginal. By the time that ingredient improved something else unfavourable was in play.


1026. mississippiwx23 3:11 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
Lack luster season with two category 5s. I just don't understand how people can say that.


It really is amazing how all that convection, in under very weak shear, hasn't developed. I still think something might spin itself up over the next week. But wow, it is amazing that it hasn't happened yet.



Not surprising; it is still not known why most tropical disturbances, even in very favorable conditions, never develop (and thank God for that, or we would have many more than 10 storms a year on average). Clearly, there must be more than just low shear, moist air, etc, something that we haven't really figured out yet, since charts like these had anomously high levels of formation probability this year:



Something missing (the above considers only circulation, convection, shear, instability and moisture; these along with SSTs are generally considered to be the 6 main varaibles for tropical cyclone formation; there must be more though, like whatever 2005 had in excess that even allowed storms to develop and thrive in normally hostile environments)?
T-minus 1200 hrs 13min till end of 2007 atlantic hurricane season.
Keeper, that was the best observation tonight.
STL,
I think the thing missing is the intangibles that go beyond what we as humans know with the tropics.
Dyn-O-Mat and its team of experts have developed a proprietary blend of formulated polymers that have undergone intense laboratory study and actual testing. They state that when they deliver their formulated polymer via jet aircraft into the outer bank of a hurricane working their way into the eye cutting a pie shape piece out of the storm it should cause the winds and the strength of the storm to diminish. The polymers will be delivered into storms via jet aircraft with specialized disbursement systems.
It is still surprising. Everything seemed to be favorable for development that we know about. If I am thinking correctly, was that we were not in the most favorable MJO. This looks to change over the next week or two. The GFS still wants to form a system in the gulf 1-2 weeks out. I am not saying there will be a storm, just saying that the models still are trying to form systems.

There is obviously something that held back the caribbean the last week that we really do not know about. Another thing I can think of is that pressures dropped over such a large area that nothing could get centered in a small location. The addition of abundant convection almost everywhere in the Caribbean might have indicated that the energy was just too dispersed, too evenly spread over the entire region to get its act together.
Dyn-O-Mat� and its team of ...


I think it is a MAJOR error to try and change the weather. If you don't allow mother nature to balance herself out, she will come back to bite you later on.
Additionally, Dyn-O-Mat® holds a U. S. Patent for the disbursement of
their formulated polymers into clouds thereby giving them the opportunity to alter weather.
Well whatever it is that is holding back these systems won't last forever. With about 7 weeks to go we are not out of the woods yet
I'm out for tonight

good night all
Considering what a well developed tropical storm or hurricane creates when it comes into contact with the human race, I'm not too disappointed with the recent lack of development.
hahaha, that is the funniest picture I have EVER seen. If anyone believes a plane, or any product, can do that, they have no knowledge of physics or weather at all.
They don't really think that is going to work???

Some history on trying to weaken hurricanes

Sounds like a higher tech version of that.
Someone wanted to try that with silver iodine crystals or some other substance a long time ago in a place far away. I think the plan was to cause the moisture to fall out of the system and rob the convection or something like that. Hmmmmmm.
Dyn-O-Mat®, utilizing a Canberra Jet, dispersed a nominal amount of its formulated polymer into a building thunderstorm off the coast of Florida. The result was that the thunderstorm was removed from Doppler radar. This was verified by the Palm Beach International Airport traffic controllers and local media weather stations.
in 7 days wave will form in gom track towards fla thats next wedensday for it to form cross fla fri sat next week at this time indications show it will be a strong wave will know more as we travel though period.
Dyn-O-Mat®, utilizing a Canberra Jet, dispersed a nominal amount of its formulated polymer into a building thunderstorm off the coast of Florida. The result was that the thunderstorm was removed from Doppler radar. This was verified by the Palm Beach International Airport traffic controllers and local media weather stations.

You're the one who said awhile back that the reason nothing had developed (before Dean did) that it was because of seeding invests. That's not true at all. Now you're saying this. Quit making up things.
WASHINGTON — After a brutal year of hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts, lawmakers are looking for ways to beat Mother Nature.

And while it's still a bit of a long shot, Uncle Sam could be called in to sponsor research to find ways to blast dangerous storms out of the sky or put rain clouds over parched land.

"This is a fascinating subject to me, and the idea that we can actually impact weather is exciting, and I guess, frightening in some ways," Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., said during a November hearing on a bill that could start up a federal weather modification research program.

In a bill introduced this year by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, a new board of scientists would be able to dole out federal research money for weather modification, which she said is important, especially considering hurricane season.
The amount of polymer needed is predetermined based upon the size and severity of the storm along with the absorption capacity of the polymer used. The wind of the storm provides the agitation that causes the polymer to bind with the water forming a gel-like substance.


Oh no, a gel-like substance will fall from the sky instead of water!!! AHH!

So it sucks in water...I didnt see anything about water vapor. So, in other words, it just reduces the rainfall...not the strength (if it could even reduce the rainfall!).
for the 1st time in weeks and weeks there are no INVEST in the Atlantic
15 inches of gel now that would be something to see
United States Patent 6,315,213
Cordani November 13, 2001



2001...that was a quite a while ago. If it works so well, why didn't we use it on Katrina, Rita or Wilma? Something to think about. (Then again, you could say Rita and Katrina both weakened just before landfall...so maybe they did use it! lol!)
It seems that if you were to interfere with the normal release of the developed energy that builds up in the tropical part of the atmosphere, nature or whatever you want to call it would find a different, and possibly more destructive means of releasing this energy. It might not be significant in a thunderstorm a few miles wide, however a system that is hundreds of miles wide might shatter a few nerves, etc. during the process.
49days 23 hrs 44 min before end of season taz
Keeper of the countdown. A worthy task!
I know...the polymer created a "stealth thunderstorm"...which explains its disappearance from the radar.
Interesting...

Only two other storms had 190 mph winds; Camille and Allen (and if you are wondering, turtlehurricane works with the HRD so that is reliable; he also used to post here; my guess is that he would rather post at a more professional site).
The Truth is Though The Programs That he was
Talking about Most Likely have already Been in Place
For The Last 2 Years. From What I know Only The
Storms That Could Potentially Have a US Landfall
Interest are Targeted as well which explains a
Whole Lot of The Non Development we have been
seeing lately with anything Remotely Coming Close
to The US Quickly Falling Apart and Dissapating.

later all out for the night....
with anything Remotely Coming Close
to The US Quickly Falling Apart and Dissapating.


What about this then? Maybe they goofed up and caused it to strengthen... LOL... Perhaps that s why the NHC was confused by it:

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.
In The Last 2 years The Only Storms To Form
were either headed away from the US or affecting
other Countries. The Only Exception is The One
They are Most concerned about which is a Rapid
Intensification Scenario Just Near The Coast.
Which Happens to Quickly for a Response.

(Humberto Comes To Mind)

These May Be The Only Types Of Storms We Ever
See again affecting The U.S. besides Weak
Harmless Systems

Depressions and Subtropical Systems

....Hmmm
I can imagine the environmental impact statement that would be required to justify a stream of polymer being released over a 150 to 250 mile long "slice of storm pie" in the atmosphere over international waters. Hmmmm (Some of these tropical systems are very wide.)
Ref: my last comment.

Does you TunaFish taste different lately? Hmmm
I Personnaly Think This is a Bad Idea. and all
Other Weather Modification Programs as Well.

It Might Change The Dispersion of Moisture From
The Tropics to Points Further North which might
cause even Worse Weather Anomaly's.

Such as Severe Droughts in Some Places and
Record Breaking Flood in Others...Hmmm



Visible Cloud Structure of 91S

97W....

There hasn't even been a strong storm that has come even close to reaching the US mainland over the last two years. It has nothing to do with any cloud seeding. It has to do with the atmospheric conditions which haven't been favorable for a US landfall, even thought they looked like they were going to be earlier this year. Istead the Bermuda high moved well over the SE and kept the storms to the south.
Superabsorbent polymers can be dehydrated to a powder. When the powder is added to an aqueous solution and agitated, the polymer is able to absorb many times its weight of the water molecules and a gel-like substance is formed. Superabsorbent polymers are particularly suited for uses where rapid asorption of aqueous fluid is desired or for uses where the swelling properties in water are employed.

Accordingly, it is an objective of the instant invention to present a method for artificially modifying weather wherein a polymer is used to cause wind dissipation by heaving weighting condensation with the clouds.

I Can Think Of atleast 10 Good Looking Invest's This Year
That could of Formed But Didnt after Being all but Forecast
as Favorable To Strengthen.

This is Really Intriguing To Me. am I The Only one?

no TN your not the only one..
TROPICAL N.
I'm just a person who likes to track storms so I may be way off base but don't most things in nature have a purpose and balance other areas. If hurricanes are disrupted , would it not impact elsewhere? It seems to me that we should be focusing on getting stronger or out of the way instead of moving hurricanes. JAT
It is interesting, and I suppose it COULD work for a weak system that has not developed yet. However, once a system has formed, it is so powerful with so much energy that a little substance placed in the system will not cause it to decay. I could see weakening a thunderstorm, but not much more than it. And anyway, a thunderstorm is much different than a hurricane. Hurricanes are self sustaining, a simple thunderstorm is not.

It may be an interesting idea, but I do not see it working. We have had some invests that looked like they had potential, but each time the atmopsheric conditions ended up not being what was expected and they didnt develop. Unless this product changes the shear/dry air/upper level conditions...then they haven't done anything this year to kill a system.
069. TropicalNonsense 12:51 AM EDT on October 11, 2007 Hide this comment.
I Personnaly Think This is a Bad Idea. and all
Other Weather Modification Programs as Well.

It Might Change The Dispersion of Moisture From
The Tropics to Points Further North which might
cause even Worse Weather Anomaly's.


I'm happy to see that you feel that way.
i def. agree w/ you FF.. i think attempting to disrupt the natural balance could have devastating long term consequences.. at best..

These May Be The Only Types Of Storms We Ever
See again affecting The U.S. besides Weak
Harmless Systems

Depressions and Subtropical Systems

....Hmmm


*sigh*

Weather modification does NOT work. How many times do I have to say that? It's nice to have new ideas, but trust me, it has had absolutely no effect on this hurricane season whatsoever, nor will it have any effect on any hurricane season in the future. Nature is just too powerful for us to tamper with.
NON Forming Invests and SubTropical Storms
maybe we have the answer. (LOL)

Im sure somewhere someone is proably trying
to figure out Some Mad Science way to strengthen
these storms as well.


I Can Think Of atleast 10 Good Looking Invest's This Year
That could of Formed But Didnt after Being all but Forecast
as Favorable To Strengthen.

This is Really Intriguing To Me. am I The Only one?


Yes, you're the only one. Even during favorable conditions, not everything strengthens. I don't understand why you people won't give up on thinking that the lack of development since Melissa means anything.

TD10 from 2005 (from Jeff Masters's blog):

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters flew into the remnants of TD 10 east of Puerto Rico this afternoon, and found that the system no longer had a closed circulation. Satellite images show that the system has deteriorated significantly this afternoon, with very little deep convection occurring. Surface winds measured by the Quikscat satellite are under 20 knots and TD 10's remains have become a tropical wave over the Atlantic. Regeneration into a tropical depression is very unlikely, as this would take several days, and the system will be experiencing increasing shear by Sunday.

I can't see any obvious reason why the system fell apart today; vertical wind shear values have continued to decrease, and are now down to 5-10 knots. Water vapor satellite imagery shows no dry air around the system. Situtations like this emphasize how little we understand about the formation process of tropical storms.
Im sure somewhere someone is proably trying
to figure out Some Mad Science way to strengthen
these storms as well.


And that too would fail to work.

and Kori.. the world is flat columbus sailed right off the edge.. and this flat earth is the center of the entire universe ....

oh ya .. man will never land on the moon and mars is much too far away to probe...

and by the way you can just forget landing on a comet!!


If the failure of Project Stormfury is not enough to prove my point, then I am not wasting my time.
My Sentiments Exactly Houston. (LOL)

This Is The New Millenium Dude Wake Up!
1082. KoritheMan 12:09 AM CDT on October 11, 2007
These May Be The Only Types Of Storms We Ever
See again affecting The U.S. besides Weak
Harmless Systems

Depressions and Subtropical Systems

....Hmmm

*sigh*

Weather modification does NOT work. How many times do I have to say that? It's nice to have new ideas, but trust me, it has had absolutely no effect on this hurricane season whatsoever, nor will it have any effect on any hurricane season in the future. Nature is just too powerful for us to tamper with.


I agree, and while I think we are having an effect on the earth's climate, it is not controlled in any way.
456, that was a good catch, spotting 91S. We forget sometimes that other areas can be dealing with these dangerous storms. I almost never look at that part of the world. That's Madagascar isn't
it?
Project "Stormfury" was in The Late 50's and 60's.

Everyone and Everything seems to of advanced
Since Then KORITHEMAN obviously except your
Thinking apparently.
TropicalNonsense,

Do you REALLY believe that the storms this year didnt develop because of storm seeding? Because, if you do, you haven't been watching the weather patterns at all.
Seeding clouds with jello should be encouraged. I would like to see a rain of jigglers. Strawberry flavored jigglers. That way we could avoid hurricanes and feed the starving children of the world. :)

i dont know nor am i saying it is or it is'nt .. if i had to guess id say we are'nt tampering w/ hurricane formation YET YET YET

my point is .. lighten up or light up or whatever but open your mind theres alot more going on in this world than any one person can or will ever know about.....
Madagascar had a very bad season last year (2006-2007 season); the number of storms that hit them was amazing:




Sixth cyclone hits Madagascar; impact "like tsunami"
Successive cyclones bring Madagascar to its knees
IRIN
April 3, 2007

JOHANNESBURG, 3 April 2007 (IRIN) - As the sixth major cyclone to hit Madagascar this season tears across the northeast of the impoverished Indian ocean island, a relentless succession of natural disasters has left nearly half a million people in desperate need of humanitarian assistance.

Tropical cyclone Jaya made landfall on Madagascar's northeastern coast on Tuesday on a projected trajectory that will see it rage through areas already devastated by cyclone Indlala just over two weeks ago.

"This is the worst cyclone season in the recorded history of the country," Dusan Zupka, the Senior Emergency Coordination Officer assigned to Madagascar by the United Nations (UN) Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Geneva, told IRIN.

According to the latest UN situation report, almost 130,000 people were "directly affected by cyclone Indlala" and "at least 88 people were killed and 30 disappeared, with about 30,000 left homeless or deprived of all their belongings."
I Found This On The Web.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO409F.html

If You Google Search Storm Weather Modification You
will Proably Be Shocked by The Massive Amount of Compiled Info.
Judge For Yourself But It all Makes For a Pretty Interesting Read.

HOWEVER... I think if or gov't secretly tried to disperse a forming system even once and it worked just a little bit...

that it very well may be onward and upward with the whole project from that point on weather the general public knows about it or not... sad but true state of affairs with my trust in our gov't to tell us the truth or anymore than we need to know...
This will be reviewed and publish in my blog 2morrow.

2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season is almost over, and I have to admit that I'm kind of happy considering my close brush with Hurricane Dean in August. There are still prime candidates out there for development and environmental conditions, particularly in the Western Caribbean remain somewhat favorable along with the recent development of La Nina which normally favors cyclogenesis in the Atlantic. But we cannot deny the fact that the Tropical Atlantic is showing signs of transition...like the strengthening and broadening of the the Azores High, more frequent and intense mid-latitude systems and the disappearance of the African Monsoon trough now replace by the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) which is slowly sinking to near 10N and will get as far as 10S in some places during the winter months.

This year has been unique in the fact that we had so many storms initially starting out as Subtropical Cyclones - Andrea, Gabrielle, Tropical Depression 10 and Jerry. Only Andrea of the four mentioned systems did not acquire tropical characteristics. it should be noted that when the initially advisories were issued on Tropical Storm Barry, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) sated that the system had subtropical characteristics, one being that it was embedded in southwesterly flow east of a deep-layer trough across the Gulf at the time.

The year had two land-falling category 5s. This is the first time in recorded hurricane history that this has happens. Hurricane Felix was the deadliest storm this year while Hurricane Dean may take the costliest position since damage estimates from Nicaragua/Honduras where Felix stormed ashore are unavailable, and will likely remain so since damage estimates of Hurricane Beta in 2005 are still unknown. There is no doubt in my mind that the name Felix will be retired in Spring of 2008.

Hurricanes Lorenzo and Humberto both displayed rapid deepening just off-shore and hours away from landfall. Hurricane Humberto became the fastest developing storm on record to be so close to land. It strengthened from a 35 mph tropical depression to an 85 mph hurricane in 14 hours while 15 miles off the coast of Texas. Lorenzo went from a 40 mph tropical storm to a 80 mph hour storm in just under 12 hours. Both systems occurred in the Gulf of Mexico which makes their intensification rate not all that surprising.

Lastly, I want to touch on Gabrielle, Ingrid, Karen and Mellisa (lol). The four tropical systems, all females, that fell victim to wind shear. The most pathetic of the four was Melissa and the most impressive of the four (and will likely be upgraded to a hurricane in post analysis) was Karen. These system really showed cyclosis (opposite of cyclogenesis) at its best.

by W456
1089. flaboyinga 1:20 AM AST on October 11, 2007 Hide this comment.
456, that was a good catch, spotting 91S. We forget sometimes that other areas can be dealing with these dangerous storms. I almost never look at that part of the world. That's Madagascar isn't
it?


yeah
Catfur, I was amused about the jello cloud seeding and took a closer look at the picture. I guess a little old storm doesn't scare you much considering the size of your pets. You are a brave lady.
From the JTWC: 91S

The area of convection previously located near 5.2S 67.4E,
Is now located near 7.0S 63.9E, approximately 510 nm west of Diego
Garcia. Recent animated infrared imagery indicates increasingly
Persistent convection near the low level circulation center (LLCC).
A 101813Z AMSU/b microwave pass shows increased convective banding
On the southern periphery of the storm now wrapping toward the llcc.
A 101652Z ASCAT pass indicates that the LLCC is beginning to
Consolidate, with winds of 15-20 knots near the core. The strongest
Winds are south of the LLCC, enhanced by gradient flow. The upper
Level environment remains favorable for development with an
Anticyclone over the disturbance providing multidirectional
Diffluence. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to
25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1007
Mb. Due to increased organization of the LLCC, the potential for the
Development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
Hours is upgraded to fair.
In a dry state the preferred polymer may be considered a particle having a diameter less than 4000 microns but greater than 50 microns. In a swollen state the particle may have a diameter greater than three hundred times its weight. In a totally water-swollen state, the particles contain up to about 99.98 weight percent of water and a little as about 0.1 weight percent of polymer. Thus, such particles could hold from ten to thousands of times their own weight. By seeding a leading edge of a violent storm, such as a hurricane, the winds cause a mix of the material wherein moisture is absorbed by the material causing a shearing effect. The shearing effect causes the polymers to absorb, lose, and reabsorb water countless times. During this exchange, the weight of the water being transferred allowing for wind shearing that assists in lessening the velocity of the wind.

The shearing forces are affected by the nature of the interactions between the particles during such collisions. When attractive forces dominate, the particles will aggregate and the dispersion may destabilize.

Example: A hurricane is seeded with approximately 30,000 lbs of a superabsorbent aqueous based polymer by use of a transport plane flying through the leading edge of the storm. Within twenty seconds the polymer will obtain over 70 percent of its absorption capacity or nearly three hundred times its weight. The winds of the storm will continue to disperse the materials causing a form of internal flocculation disrupting the feeding nature of the storm. When presented close to land, the storm will not have sufficient time to reform to its previous strength.




TropicalNonsense, the point I was trying to make about the size of the systems ruling out any weather modification beyond a local effect is kind of demonstrated by this loop on the link below. Every system is tied together with the whole atmosphere and cause and effect kicks butts and takes names anywhere you look.




Link














1104. franck
No, it is not cloud seeding.
1026. mississippiwx23 3:11 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
Lack luster season with two category 5s. I just don't understand how people can say that.

It really is amazing how all that convection, in under very weak shear, hasn't developed. I still think something might spin itself up over the next week. But wow, it is amazing that it hasn't happened yet.


…EXACTLY. We’ve seen some strange things this season, including disturbances that no one would thought would do anything, and then disturbances that did more than anyone thought. Two CAT 5's reeked havoc in CA!!! And, there have been tiny perturbations that kept us on edge and otherwise. A busy season for sure, if you followed the blobs, the shear, the low level spinners, the fronts, the organized and unorganized convection. We’ve watched and hung on nearly every swirl all the way across the Atlantic. And while 2007 may not yet have been the CONUS threat many expected, there’s still more than a month to go. Remember, it does only take one, right? Old hats know that. So, before we write 2007 off, let’s not let cognizance wane!

It’s been an interesting, exciting and a learning experience for me at least. I learn something all the time in the blog here. It’s usually a great place for tropical interpretation and exchange. You get to know folks and you can feel how the tropics have touched their lives, and their anticipation of being effected again in some way.

--btw, on that note, I’d like to give some special recognition to SJ! He’s shared his foresight and in a great way, humbly shared his thoughts and knowledge. His “tutorials” have been a great help to me, and I know to others here. It’s a great passion for him, helping others to understand the tropical tools and how to use them and that's very admirable! So, having said that, I ask (might get banned for it) that you open your checkbook and send him some small appreciation for it. It costs money and sacrificed time to do what he’s put out there for us. It’s not a solicitation, just an appreciation. TIA

---ALSO, on a special request, please also say a special prayer for Patrap and his family. Pat’s a nice guy! He always offers some great humor, and while he rarely predicts the weather, he is always prompt at putting up links and graphics for us to see and discern. In addition and more importantly, his passion for “awareness, preparedness and safety” is exemplary and noble. Send one up for him! That’s a good thing! And, Pat I know, will appreciate it. TIA


"Hold down the fort and keep the gates closed!"

MLCgoodnight4.gif

Have a good sleep, all!
MLC<---------------out for some shut-eye!
we can land on a comet moving at 400,000mph but we can't influence tropical formation??

i dont know.... but that doesnt sound right.. does it??
I couldn't get the link to work for me on firefox so here's the cut and paste address. And yes we can affect the weather, but at what overall risk to our well being in the long run.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html
No, it is not cloud seeding, but the ability to influence mid and upper level wind currents.
And you guys with the 'only God controls the weather' attitudes...forget that. Go stare at your kitchen refrigerator. Man can build a bomb the size of it that can destroy your state capital. And man can't influence the weather..??


Of course God doesn't control all of the weather.

we can land on a comet moving at 400,000mph but we can't influence tropical formation??

i dont know.... but that doesnt sound right.. does it??


You want it done so bad, get off your butt and write your senators instead of whining about it here. I, for one, know for a fact it's not going to work. Even someone who would come up with a plan to STRENGTHEN the storms must be out of their mind, since that would not work either.

I don't care how far technology advances each year, we can only go SO FAR. HUMANS ARE LIMITED, AND SO IS WHAT WE CAN DO. Why else do you think we have very little skill in forecasting, and very limited tools? That's why. We're humans, we have limits. We're now omnipotent.

Anyone who thinks seeding storms will work obviously has no idea of how the weather works.
Kori i dont want or not want anything .. you def. need to read my previous post..

lighten up.. light up... whatever

your way to dogmatic (look it up)...

you know NOTHING for fact.. if you do Id love to read about any evidence you have.. LOL

dont talk about what you know.. SHOW ME or get lost... LOL..
forecastFlyer 5:04 AM GMT on October 11, 2007
TROPICAL N.
I'm just a person who likes to track storms so I may be way off base but don't most things in nature have a purpose and balance other areas. If hurricanes are disrupted , would it not impact elsewhere? It seems to me that we should be focusing on getting stronger or out of the way instead of moving hurricanes.


Well Forecastflyer I was thinking the same thing too.
This is why Im against these Weather Mod Ideas
and Such. It will Upset The Balance Of Moisture
Transfer for certain and i just Guess Hurricanes are
a sort of "Heat Energy Release" For the Atmosphere
and I just cant help but to think tampering
with Nature Here is a Bad Idea that may have
Real Unforseen Consequences.

But Who Knows what Science and Tech Will Do One
Day to the Planet. I Surmise Progress at the
cost of Destruction or the Other Way around Maybe.(LOL)
===========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
===========================

Japan Meteorological Agency

WWJP25 Weather Chart 0000z 11October
====================================

TROPICAL DEPRESSION
22.0N 175.0E - 25 knots 1010 hPa

moving north @ 15 kts

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 11Oct)
==========================================
An area of convection (97W) persistent near 22.5N 174.7E or 550 NM southwest of Midway Island. Animated multispectral satellite imagery reveals an increase in convection around a partially exposed low level circulation center. Upper air analysis depicts good poleward outflow induced by the TUTT cell to the west of the LLCC. Also the TUTT cell is causing moderate vertical wind shear over the disturbance.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1007 mb. The potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.
Hey, this is off the weather but it's on the environment. If you want to see how far we have advanced, research the effects of our high tech plastic water and beverage bottles. The production of the things contributes to air pollution, the disposal of them is polluting soil, groundwater, and the oceans. And we the masters of our destiny won't even acknowledge this one reversible problem. And we are going to control the weather.lol
P.S. If you leave the contents in them too long the plastic breaks down and contaminates the contents.
A good night and a better tomorrow to one and all.
One Thing I Know for a Fact is Many Weather Modification
Programs some Government sponsored and Some
Commercially Sponsored are already in Place.
Just Like Every Other Area of Human Life Man
is Now Unfortunately Learning To Tinker with
the Weather. (Oops ... No No!)

I Do Believe This is having some affect (Haarp
for Instance especially) There are Just 2 many
strange Weather Patterns and such being Observed.
Most all Over North and Central America which I
Find Unusual and Proably not Coincidence.



HUMANS ARE LIMITED, AND SO IS WHAT WE CAN DO.

why are we limited? weve lived on this rock a mere eye blink of its life..
G-Night FlaBoyinga.

Thanks For Your Input.
I Think he's Talking about his Brain Houston. (lol)

Sorry but i couldnt resist. That Point of View went out in the Stone Age.

Picture This KORITHEMAN :

Imagine if You Cooked Something in the Microwave while a Caveman was Watching.

okay Now Your The Caveman. (LOL)

Kori i dont want or not want anything .. you def. need to read my previous post..

lighten up.. light up... whatever

your way to dogmatic (look it up)...

you know NOTHING for fact.. if you do Id love to read about any evidence you have.. LOL

dont talk about what you know.. SHOW ME or get lost... LOL..


You want me to show you? I don't need to. Why don't you get lost with your attitude? How's that?

We barely even know the BASICS of hurricane formation, and so we can't say that we do anything at all to weather when we don't even know what causes it.

I Think he's Talking about his Brain Houston. (lol)

Sorry but i couldnt resist. That Point of View went out in the Stone Age.

Picture This KORITHEMAN :

Imagine if You Cooked Something in the Microwave while a Caveman was Watching.

okay Now Your The Caveman. (LOL)


You earned yourself the ignore list. Congratulations. Next time think before you speak.

why are we limited? weve lived on this rock a mere eye blink of its life..

Explain why we are not limited, or get lost as you told me.
your ignorance is blinding, im sorry but really cmon... the simple fact that your able to come on here and show us all your brilliance should, i repeate should be enough for you to realize that "the sky is the limit" as it is and always has been.. the list for the reasons we are NOT limited could go on on starting with fire and the wheel and ending with one of the many huge technilogical advances we have made as a race in the last decade... i guess one of the toppers for me again would be actually landing a probe on a comet on the outer reaches of our solar system while it was traveling at 400,000 mph and sending back brand new data would be a good example as to why we are not now nor have we ever been limited by anything but time...
1120. Rick54

we can land on a comet moving at 400,000mph but we can't influence tropical formation??

Of course we can influence weather. We are doing it now. There is now need to pump polymers into the atmosphere when CO2 will do the job just fine. The question is at what cost to the planet. The problem is that the more we use technology more we screw things up.
1121. dmaddox
I have a question. Does anyone know what is going on with www.weather.gov? none of the southern states links work! i think the SRH is down? no surface obs are coming in either!! If anyone knows anything, please let me know! Thanks in Advance!!
Kori is an Angry Teenager.

He Does This all The Time Houston.
He Knows Everything and it's Impossible To
converse With Someone Like This.

Okay Rant Over now back to the Tropics.

I See 94L is Now Moving Southwest
and Not Into The Gulf Which means RIP.
The problem is that the more we use technology more we screw things up.

Exactly.

I have a question. Does anyone know what is going on with www.weather.gov? none of the southern states links work! i think the SRH is down? no surface obs are coming in either!! If anyone knows anything, please let me know! Thanks in Advance!!

Sorry, can't help you there. :(
I heard it was Maintenance or something with the
Sat Page.
Thats an Interesting Analogy Rick.
although im scared to mention the words
Global Warmingon this blog

My Mailbox Fills Up With Hate mail everytime
I put those 2 words together in a sentence.
1126. KRL
Weather modification is already a reality.

HAARP
angry teen...hmmm...well...I see ya'll are teaching him how to be a respectful adult..be sure to tell him how useless you think he is..make him feel good to be here..then teach him to respect others opinions..and then when ya'll are done ganging up on him...tell him to get out...I'm sure ya'll have SO much more knowledge than he...kori...it's a blog for everybody...speak on sweetie...
Good morning stormw what are you keeping your eyes on today?
1131. IKE
There's nothing out in the tropical Atlantic that's gonna develop into a named system. I've looked at all of the models(for what it's worth), and there's nothing in the future. The CMC has a weak system affecting the eastern GOM in about 6 days. The GFS has moisture returning from the southern GOM in about the same time frame. Looks like the former 94L might get some of it's moisture drawn north by the first half of next week.

By the end of next week, the ECMWF and the latest GFS show a strong system affecting the central plains and moving NE dragging a stronger cold front through the SE USA. Could be even colder air behind this system then the one over the SE USA now.

The tropics are closing for business along the northern gulf coast. Snowbirds time.
ike is that written in stone lol juan 1985 oct 24 thru oct 31 same year kate fla panhandle nov 22 1985 both hurricanes both hit northern gulf coast and the 15 day planner i saw shows temps above normal starting monday for the deep south oh well one of the unlucky got to get back to work lol
1133. hud3
1126. KRL 9:06 AM GMT on October 11, 2007 "Weather modification is already a reality. HAARP"

I was interested in KRL's comment that HAARP can modify the weather. My understanding is that it is used to study the electrical & magnetic properties of the Ionosphere. It does actively inject RF energy into the Ionosphere, but it's max output is only 3.6 MW. A Saturn booster rocket puts out 1,000MW per second! A single lighting bolt can release a million megawatts, according to Wikipedia.

I don't see how HAARP factors in to weather modification, but maybe you can elaborate.

Thanks,

Hud3
1134. IKE
No SAINT..it's not written in stone. But the odds are decreasing. Check out the 6Z GFS...watch the 8 to 16 day forecast...granted, it could be wrong, but the ECMWF is agreeing...watch what happens to the eastern US...it doesn't look tropical, it looks like fall is taking over....

Link
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_216m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_324m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_348m.gif
---- oh you are seeing this right 983 mb low

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_360m.gif
---- again no trick 981 mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_384m.gif
---- At this point it is gone but look at the cold air with that high that is blasting S ward in this image
1136. IKE
One reason to hope for cooler weather...a car with no AC working. After 6-8 months of sweating, cooler weather is a blessing.
1137. IKE
---- At this point it is gone but look at the cold air with that high that is blasting S ward in this image

That's what I'm talking about. See if it keeps it up on future runs. It's been showing it for a few runs now...could be a severe weather outbreak for someone if that holds true.
Good Morning.
It seems to me, based on my limited knowlege of stuff, that there are rules that govern things. Call it physics, or whatever.
For every action, there is an equal and opposing reaction, for instance.
In weather terms, that would/ could relate to the blurry concept that enormous amounts of energy is created by weather systems, and that energy has to be dissipated . So if the Tropical Atlantic builds all this energy, and the energy is not dissipatede by the action of storms and idealy, hurricanes, what happens to the energy?
Does it result in an equal and opposite reaction somewhere else ? i.e. in the Pacific ? or during winter ?

Its a little early to try to formulate cohesive thoughts, in spite of this cup of Robusta coffee, but I hope someone gets my point ?
91S
25 Knots
1004 Millibars

Microwave Pass (89GHz)

This bites....the blog went dead...bbl
Maybe its too early in truth. Noboddy gets my point. I'll try later then..........
1143. hcubed
"1102. Houstonian 12:55 AM CDT on October 11, 2007

Example: A hurricane is seeded with approximately 30,000 lbs of a superabsorbent aqueous based polymer by use of a transport plane flying through the leading edge of the storm."


This stuff MUST fall into the sea. Instead of an oil slick, now we'll have a jello slick that will wash ashore somewhere.
Went dead just worn out. Lackluster yr so far.
Morning all :~)

Ahh, all seems quit in the tropics!

lefto, while I understand your sentiment to some extent, I tend to disagree. Two Cat 5's made landfall this year which is amazing and tragic in itself. One of those two was a TD to CAT 5 in 51hrs. That is almost, if not more amazing then the 2 mile eye and low pressures of Wilma. Then the only Hurricane that did strike the US continued to rapidly organize from a TD while it was with in 50 miles of the coast.

Does not really seem to qualify as lack luster if you ask me. It was just not an active year for the CONUS, but then the universe does not revolve around the CONUS :~)
good morning all

Today is the day I called for something to start spinning up in the Caribbean
Let's see what happens. It has rained here continuously since yesterday and today looks like more of the same
Make sure your prepared Hurricane season goes until Nov 30th.
Morning All!

With all due respect to those affected in other basins and in our basin this year! It is wonderful to only be tracking storms in other basins right now. Hopefully the quietness continues and will relieve some of the stress on the oil and insurance companies. Lord knows we could all use a little break in those departments. I realize that the gas prices are influenced by many other things but, every little bit helps. One less reason to keep prices high. Back to my corner :-)
Mornin' folks....

Mornin' SJ

I see there's still some conversation about weather mod (*laffs to self)..That conversation was going on when I went to bed last nite :))
Good Morning All...Will be out for most of the day, but, very cool this morning in the Florida Panhandle (with wispy clouds high above)......Agree that Fall is here and it looks like things are waning down in the tropics.....Yeah, another Kate "could" happen but the bulk of the season is behind us and I do think that it will be memorable and record breaking one (Dean & Felix).....A bit egocentric to think that the year was a bust, just because of the lack of a significant CONUS strike, when lives were lost this year to our South because of Felix & Dean.....I'll check in this evening...
1151. icmoore
Edwared Lorenz,meteorologist,1960 The Chaos Theory,the butterfly effect,etc. Very intersting reading and maybe sort of what Pottery2 describes? Oh, and Good Morning Everyone!
Mornin weatermanwannbe...it IS a beautiful morning in the panhandle!! I opened all the doors and windows to that nice cool breeze!! 70's today..nice respite!
I'm out, but, it was a beautiful drive this morning from Tallahassee to Bonifay with the windows rolled down Baha...Have a Great Day..
Morning ic

You too, thanks
Morning Kman, sg03, emt, TCW, and wannabe :~)

Speaking of mods emt, watched an interesting show on NationalGeo or Discovery about this scientist who is working to clone the extinct Thylacine, or Tazmainian Tiger, and repopulate it in Tazmainia.

1157. IKE
Got down to 59.9 at my house this morning....

Tonight..."Tonight
Mostly clear and cooler. Lows 45 to 50 inland...51 to 56 near the coast. Northwest winds up to 5 mph."
the universe does not revolve around the CONUS :)



This blog does however.
Now...SJ..Anthropology, adaptation, evolution.....my FAVORITE (well, one of them) subject in college. I'll have to look that up and read about. Nature's (and science) are sure facinating aren't they?
1160. icmoore
Good Morning Baja, It made front page news in the g'ville Sun temperatures will be in the low to mid fifties. Thats cold enough for me.
Straight out of Jurrasic Park too, huh
Nature's??? lol, I need more coffee :))
I wish the cooler air would come to South Fl.,it's going to be near 90,and very humid.
You know, ic...when it gets below 70 Im cold *laffs*.....but right about now I think I'd like a little of those 50's you're getting. Gee, while I'm at it, maybe I should order a side of heavy rain with that :))
hey everyone hows its going
yikes, patriot. But then, you guys are almost ALWAYS warmer than everyone else!!
g'morning chris
yea good morning to u too
I have not even looked,Anything going on in the tropics?
1170. icmoore
Baja, I know wat you mean I have been in FL my whole life and have to keep a jacket handy for anything below the low 70's. Couldn't cut it up north.
not much going on just that a low is about to go to the pacific ocean and maybe form
Meteosat-9...."Image not available"...I hate when that happens *sighs*
Wow I go out of the country and come back and we have a brand new blog to play with and everything. Good morning to all the people that I know as there are too many to name here.

I see a very nice blow up of convection is occuring over the carribean right now. Interesting to see that it is on the back end of the low that just moved over honduras. NHC mentions this in their 5:30 discussion, but since then the cloud tops have gotten even colder. May be something to watch over the coming days if it can hold together.
Just a quick note for those watching the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean

Winds have switched from S and SW yesterday to E and NE today in Grand Cayman and the pressure is very low @ 1006.5

lets see how the day plays out
LOL, ic. I moved to Ohio for about 6 months.....in DECEMBER!!! After that winter, I vowed that I would NOT spend ANOTHER winter and moved down here. I love the panhandle. I miss that we haven't been having our regular afternoon thunderstorms like we did maybe....mmmmmm...5 years ago or so. The weather HAS been weird (for here)
Interesting article on Thylacine cloning and why it is likely on Nat Geo now. Pretty recent developments as well.
Well, you folks have fun watching today. Off to start my day. Take care, folks *poofs*
Thanks SJ!! I just bookmarked that and I'll check it out when I get home. Have a WONDERFUL day and take care!
Patriots: The cooler air and less humidity is on the way but won't stay very long. It's 75 and rel humidity of 41% here.
Good observation Kman, it certainly needs to be watched.
1181. IKE
50+ knots of shear in the northern GOM....20 knots down into the extreme NW Caribbean sea....

Link

What will be down in the Caribbean/southern GOM in a few days? It'll get drawn north or NW.
Well,the cooler air can't here soon enough!Is this the kinda day we play weather trivia?LOL
Ike

But only 5 to 10 knots over the blob and high pressure overhead
Well another sunny morning here in Gulf Breeze. I guess the tropics have given up for the moment and just possibly for the remaining part of the year. Mother nature apparantly just had other plans.
Good Morning All. With these cold fronts coming down and all does this mean Hurricane Season is over. Someone said they looked at the models and it don't show nothing. I am just wondering, it seems like it is. I know this morning in lower Alabama it is cool. Feels pretty nice.
Sheri
Whats the word on the Cuban Blob....
OR the Convection in the Abacos?
Hi jp

I missed the posts about the joke.
There were a couple of days when I was not on much
1189. icmoore
JP, I agree it is hard to be real in this world of political correctness but in some cases it is probably a good thing.
1190. NEwxguy
good morning,I see we have lost our invest
doesn't surprise me,sout of cuba looks interesting,but with the surge from fronts of the east coast,there's a fast train out to the atlantic.
Well I have to get ready and head on into the office

Will BB later
1192. IKE
kmanislander 7:50 AM CDT on October 11, 2007
Ike

But only 5 to 10 knots over the blob and high pressure overhead


The blob looks to be moving NE.

The low at 1005mb over the Yucatan has a chance if it can get back out over the water.
Mornin', all.

It was a little cooler drive this morning from Palm Harbor to Tampa! But the front that 's passing has no rain with it. :-(

Ike

Check the AVN loop

The blob keeps regenerating to the SW of Jamaica. Its just hanging around which makes it dangerous for this time of year. If it is still firing up like this by tonight I would not be surprised to see the Navy site tag it as an invest given the surface pressure
1196. NEwxguy
jp,I remember that and some people got upset?
What is confusing is we have had so many systems start out looking very promising only to be torn apart. I look forward to reading some of the reports as to why.
1198. icmoore
Wow, JP I thought somehow I must have missed the offensive joke, but I was here and heard but can't believe it caused a stir. Archie Bunker wouldn't make it today.
gone now
1201. NEwxguy
jp,
Its the world we live in,can't even make jokes without offending people,wish people would lighten up,enjoy life.
1202. IKE
I'll keep an eye on it KMAN. Have a nice day in paradise.....
Morning, folks! Wow, so the shear is building into the GOMEX, 94L is dead, the prevailings are east bound from the Florida straits north...that having been said, the shear is forecast to relax in the next 96 hours or so, sea surfcce temps have not fallen much, there is still some spin associated with the remains of 94L and there's a large area of convection and otherwise disturbed weather S and SW of Jamaica that simply will not go away...does that about cover it? What happened to the pseudo-invest in the Canaries?
1204. NEwxguy
I wish some drier air would push into New England,nothing but low clds,drizzle showers,temps in the 50's.
Good morning just an update real quick from CPC...

La Niña will likely continue into early 2008

La Niña conditions strengthened during September 2007, as negative SST anomalies along the equator expanded westward and now extend from 170oE to the South American coast (Fig. 1). The latest weekly analysis (Fig. 2) shows the largest SST departures (-2oC to -3oC) between 120oW and the coast, with departures of -0.5oC to -1oC centered near the date line. The magnitude of the negative SST anomalies increased in all of the Niño regions, with the Niño-3.4 index dropping to -1.2oC and the Niño-4 index dropping to -0.5oC by the end of the month (Fig. 3). The upper-ocean heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300 m of the ocean) in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific remained below average during September (Fig. 4), with temperatures ranging from 2oC to 4oC below average at thermocline depth (Fig. 5). Consistent with these conditions, the low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds remained stronger than average across the central equatorial Pacific, convection remained suppressed throughout the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and enhanced convection again covered parts of Indonesia and the far western Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflect a strengthening La Niña.

Complete update Here
1207. NEwxguy
jp,
I make sure people like that don't waste my time,I really like the regulars on here and use my ignore list frequently for the others who don't want to have a normal exchange.
I have to tell you that given my increased use of the ignore button, the atmosphere in here has become troll-free...of course, that doesn't help with WUMail
You guys have trolls WU mail you?
I didn't even know it existed till yesterday....
I just looked and did not see anything that looks like it will get going.Maybe someone who knows more may disagree.
Good morning, all.

- 94L RIP
- sw of Jamaia still lingering, suspect
- eCaribbean, suspect
- spin out at 30n, 53w, Noel?

wide look at the tropical Atlantic

Have a good day, all!
1213. NEwxguy
trolls emailing me,now that would really drive me to drink.
1214. newt3d
I'm looking at the RGB loop. There's something at 30N, 52.5W that I would consider a tropical depression at least ... and it's not even an invest.

It's got a great low level circulation, and decent convection building despite some medium shear. Is it garnering zero interest due to it's potential as a minimal fish storm?
I wasn't aware that we could do that, JP...thanks! I normally don't get into it with them; I ignore them and move on. Life's too short to willingly deal with the stupid-by-choice, willfully ignorant and the intolerant. I choose not to treat with them in my personal life, and I certainly don't want to do that here...
well said moon


i 2nd that too
Agreed, newt! Just posted 30n, 52w ("Noel") myself. That's bound to be a TD! We're bound to see that today surely!

TAZ, thanks, and good morning to ya! What's the latest on the west coast storm?
1219. NEwxguy
I'll say one thing if the shear drops soon that area in the carribean looks interesting.
yes i had a troll e mail on wed his name was sinaminn
moon we this got a little rain from 4am to 6am and the rain was out of here by 9am and by 10am it was all sunny
Glad to hear that, Taz. I was concerned that it might be more serious! It sure looked fierce!
1224. NEwxguy
jp,I really hope that debate doesn't rear its ugly head again today.
Question,

What is causing all this shear we have seen this year?
but i nevere seen it where the rain took so long to get here and rain olny for a few hrs then it was sunny by 10am


Area at 30n,53w seems to have a closed llc, although QS missed the western portion. Wouldn't this be TD15? and likely Noel, be it tropical, sub, or extra?
shear??? wind shear been vary low all season up in tell now
Some one posted an email from NHC yesterday mentioning the area at 30/50 but NHC stated it was extra-tropical and did not meet any of their criteria for being named.
1225. gulfbreezewill 1:39 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Question,

What is causing all this shear we have seen this year?



The best i can tell, looking at things historically, this is normal variance in shear; maybe working to the high end, but certainly not out ofd the norm...the systems have suffered from bad timing, for the most part
Well why have last say 6 invest been torn apart by shear......or rather why have the storms been pushed away from the US mainland?
I don't post much but I think we can call a end to this season.
So then there has been some windows of opportunity for these storms, but they havent made it to the window and it closed. Is that what has happeaned?
1235. gulfbreezewill 1:46 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
So then there has been some windows of opportunity for these storms, but they havent made it to the window and it closed. Is that what has happeaned?



in a great many cases, yes...as for the shear pushing storms away, shear doesn't do that, per se...shear does just that, it shears the tops off the building disturbances, making it hard for them tio develop
Well why have last say 6 invest been torn apart by shear......or rather why have the storms been pushed away from the US mainland?


dry air
The high shear (referred to as "MEGA" shear by somebody) in the Gulf is actually near average, and is just a spike from lower than average levels (and the average shear at this time of the year is a very hostile 30+ kts, meaning that storms have to be located in pockets of low shear to develop at this time of the year):



Blue line = observed; black line = normal

Notice also how the rise in shear has been lagging behind climatology, which is what La Nina is supposed to do (hence why Gray calls for an exceptionally active October and November; mind you, this does not mean 2005, which should NEVER be used as a comparison, but rather 4 storms, 2 hurricanes and a major).
1230. FloridaRick 1:43 PM GMT on October 11, 2007 Hide this comment.
Some one posted an email from NHC yesterday mentioning the area at 30/50 but NHC stated it was extra-tropical and did not meet any of their criteria for being named.


I don't buy that! Hey, we've seen punier systems get named this year. 30n,53w looks quite organized. It may not effect any land, surely a fish; but, that doesn't (in my book, lol, like that counts) mean it shouldn't be critiqued and garner the same relative criteria as other Atlantic systems. --btw, why wouldn't it meet that criteria? Simply, by the fact that it's being called "extra?" Looks like a TD at least on visible. So, w/out having to look it up, how does "extra" not fit the "naming" criteria? TIA
Ok high how does a typical hurricane build itself into the atmosphere?
amd with you this hurricane season is overe i have now turn my blog in to winter storm season 2007-2008
Good morning,

I havent read any of your blogs so if this is repetitive i am sorry.......

When is the area 800 miles ESE of Bermuda going to be investigated? Theres definitely a low level circulation with convection.......Whats up?
Man.....theres some deep questions on here.....
Fe Fi Fo Fum

What do you think? Are the tropics done?

jc
The main area to watch in October and November is the western Caribbean, where average shear is normally lower (around 20 kts, rising, but at a slower rate than in the Gulf):



Personally, I have bad vibes about any storm that might develop there, as the last storm to do so had 185-190 mph winds (pending the final report, but the 163 kt SFMR surface reading was confirmed to be accurate).
Next question,

Why have we seen so much dry air in the gulf this year?
Good morning all.

I just wanted to let you all know that I will be hosting my relatives this weekend into next week, so I will not be updating my website this weekend.

The new Tropics Watch feature on my website will be up and running hopefully by next Monday or Tuesday.

So, it is a good thing we have nothing to be concerned about.

I will try to talk later with you all and maybe update my site later on. If not, I hope you all have a nice and safe weekend.

CCHS Weatherman
Storm: Thank you for yet another excellent update.
1240. gulfbreezewill 1:50 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Ok high how does a typical hurricane build itself into the atmosphere?


Guys, correct me if I'm wrong here: 40000-45000 feet
hurricane season is done for the USA has wind shear took overe there is 50 to 60kt of wind shear in the gulf and 40 to 50kt of wind shear overe FL and NC and SC and this about evere where you see

Link
Dry air?



The recent spikes are due to cold fronts, which push dry continental air into the Gulf, but if you look a bit further back, it was well below normal (or above normal moisture levels; on this graph, more negative/lower numbers indicate more moisture).
Moonlight, not sure how it does not meet their criteria. I too, thought it looked quite organized yesterday. I know the NHC knows what they are doing, just not sure how they are doing it. It could be that they are playing to their predictions, meaning if they named this TD15 and then had to name it it would only leave them one more. (That is just a joke) I am sure they would not do that.
1246. gulfbreezewill 6:54 AM PDT on October 11, 2007
Next question,

Why have we seen so much dry air in the gulf this year?


not march rain in the gulf
Ok then if a typical hurricane gain that type of height, at what level are we seeing all this shear lately?
1257. newt3d
1251. Floodman 1:57 PM GMT on October 11, 2007 Hide this comment.
1240. gulfbreezewill 1:50 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Ok high how does a typical hurricane build itself into the atmosphere?


Guys, correct me if I'm wrong here: 40000-45000 feet


I think 45000feet is a little low. You'll often see cloud tops around -70C, if not colder. I think this roughly corresponds to 65000 feet (assuming 30C ground temperature and moist air lapse rate).
Also, this is a good indicator of conditions, although there seems to be a missing ingredient (this is absed on five variables which are important to tropical cyclogenesis, the sixth is SSTs, which have been near average this year - and actually, that may be the reason; the AMO has tanked big time, at least temoprarially, or they are wrong about another 20-30 years of high activity):



Notice that the formation probability was about twice normal levels this year, indicating much more favorable than usual conditions (among the five variables that are monitored).
1246. gulfbreezewill 6:54 AM PDT on October 11, 2007
Next question,

Why have we seen so much dry air in the gulf this year?


Fluctuations in the MJO
Gulfbreeze....

A Hurricane is so difficult to describe especially in its development. There are many ways that they form. They can develope from the ground up or they can come the top down. In the middle to the ground. There are all kinds of combinations but the end result is the same......
1257. newt3d 9:01 AM CDT on October 11, 2007
1251. Floodman 1:57 PM GMT on October 11, 2007 Hide this comment.
1240. gulfbreezewill 1:50 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Ok high how does a typical hurricane build itself into the atmosphere?


Guys, correct me if I'm wrong here: 40000-45000 feet

I think 45000feet is a little low. You'll often see cloud tops around -70C, if not colder. I think this roughly corresponds to 65000 feet (assuming 30C ground temperature and moist air lapse rate).



The dark gray in the Caribbean blobs here is -80 and colder, so that is pretty high:

1264. guygee
As others have noted, as of yesterday the powerful trough still moving south even in the western GOM east to beyond the FL Peninsula should provide an effective barrier to any tropical cyclones heading for the CONUS for days to come.

Hopefully you, my fellow bloggers, will forgive me for going off on a tangent, but I find Dr. Masters use of the term "Sleeping Giant" to be very interesting. The idea of "Sleeping Giants" in our unconscious mind evokes caution and trepidation, as well as emotions of fear and terror in some people. Indeed, Sleeping Giants may well be an archetype contained in our Collective Unconscious, a psychological and organic structure postulated by the famous psychologist Carl Jung [Jung Links](although Jung himself insisted that his idea of the Collective Subconscious was commonly misunderstood). The Collective Unconscious itself may be interpreted by proponents of Evolutionary Psychology as a type of advanced instinct peculiar to human beings. Just as human beings are more complex than lower animals, so may our instincts extend beyond such rudiments as the "Suckling Instinct" to include more complex manifestations that may involve imagery, emotions and ideas that seemingly spring up spontaneously across many cultures in mythology, folklore and even in the many religions that have existed over the span of human existence.

As an example, the idea of the "Sleeping Giant in the Mountain" exists in folktales from many countries and cultures, apparently developed independently. Yet the "Giant in the Mountain" may simply be an instinctual caution against living near volcanic mountains, or mountains prone to landslide,avalanche or flash flooding, where without the lenses of the sciences we are left with the otherwise "reasonable" explanation of a "terrible giant",who occasionally awakens with great wrath bringing destruction and death to all so foolish as to live in his shadow.

More interesting for our purposes are Homer's tales of Brave Odysseus known as the Odyssey (expropriated and otherwise plagiarized by the classical Roman poet Virgil and to a much lesser extent by the modern proto-jam rock band Cream), we find the figure of the One-Eyed Giant, the Cyclops. Returning as a hero from the bloody and senseless 10 year Trojan War, Odysseus and a band of his sailors are trapped in the cave-abode the One-Eyed Cyclops Polyphemus, an eater of human flesh and the direct son of the God of the Sea, Poseidon. Through his charm, clever manipulations and a great deal of strong red wine, Odysseus manages to escape by blinding the large One-Eyed monster, but as Odysseus escapes by sea the blinded Polyphemus tosses huge boulders into the sea creating great waves that throw Odysseus off-course away from his home, as Polyphemus calls on his father Poseidon to exact his rightful revenge on the treacherous Odysseus. To avenge his son, Poseidon drives Odysseus wandering over unknown seas for ten long years, only then allowing him to land in Ithaca, returning alone as the last man left alive, in dire circumstances, to find great troubles brewing in his own house.

Both the "Giant in the Cave" (along with the Giants cousins the Ogre and the Troll) as well as the One-Eyed Giant appear to predate Homer and possibly written language itself, most likely passed down from long oral tradition. As an archetype, the survival value of the "Giant in the Cave" is perhaps clear enough, as humans were predisposed to use caves as dwellings, and were undoubtedly often terrified and put into mortal danger by other cave-loving voracious and deadly ursine and feline predators. The One-Eyed Giant as an archetype, however, remains a mystery. It is tempting to think of the One-Eyed Giant as a kind of "collective memory" of powerful cyclonic storms, but it seems unlikely that the pre-historical primitive humans could have possessed the knowledge of meteorology necessary to realize that they were in the center of a cyclonic storm, much less have the concept that such storms are indeed "One-Eyed Giants".

Archetypes that were once advantageous for the survival of the species have now mostly passed into the realm of the children's fairytale. Folk tales were classified by Finnish folklorist Antti Aarne in a "historic-geographic" method of comparative folkloristics by 1910. Stith Thompson was a distinguished professor who spent a good portion of his career expanding on Antti Aarne's original folklore classification and was renowned for his authorship of six-volume "Motif-Index of Folk-Literature" published between the years 1932-37. Aarne and Thompson's "Folkloristic morphology" is today known as the Aarne-Thompson Index (or simply the AT Index). Many of the AT-classified folktale motifs are listed by their AT Index number on this Norwegian folktale site.

In particular, it seems that Sleeping Giants (whether of the One-Eyed variety or not) have taken a much more diminutive role as an archetype originally evolved as a survival strategy. In fact, as the ages have rolled by, the "Giants" have been reduced from a fierce man-eating son of the gods to an easily fooled buffoon, as epitomized by AT Index Type 328: "The boy steals the giant's treasure"; the best known example in this country being the story of "Jack and the Beanstalk".
Hmmm, very educational. Then apparantly there are more factors that go into the formation of these storms than the general population knows or even understands. I have been working as an engineer assessing their damage for 23 years but I have never showed down until now to start and understand how they form. I have only been interested in how they destroy. Thank you gang.
Upper level lows have been known to work their way down to the surface and begin the process but most of the time it starts at the surface and works it way up. Very complicated. Why do you think that the models are off so much on their predictions?
not evere where is going to be a 2005 that is this some in you may see evere 10 years or so
1269. newt3d
Cyclone phase evolution (CMC) for the (30N,53W) system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/07101100/114.html

Looks like water temps are 27.5, and the system is marginally cold-core (at least according to the model). It certainly fooled me in satellite appearance.
1270. sammo
1261. StormW 2:04 PM GMT on October 11, 2007

Same principle with a hurricane. This is what allows one to build higher or deeper into the atmosphere.


So how high will a hurricane build up, StormW? Thanks for the great explanation, btw.
30,000 to 35,000 including outflow? I know that typically with healthy outflow you see very high cirrus before you see the storm...
Anyone have anything on that area east of Bermuda?
Very interesting, guygee. Thanks.

--re: 30n,53w. Are "extra" storms not named? I'll conclude with this: If it were sitting off the coast of Miami the headlines would be screaming, "Noel nears major status" and there would be an evacuation notice! Extra and no name simply because it's out in the Atlantic, just doesn't fit the bill imo! (rant over, lol)

MLC<............out to to work!
Storm,

Then can wind shear move at an angel. I have always assumed that wind shear moved horizontal across a plain. But am I wrong in my thinking?
1275. emeguy
KRL,

HAARP has nothing to do with weather modification. It is a research project to study the ionosphere, magnetic field, and especially Aurora Borialis. I have some interest here as I have bounced signals off the Aurora on 144MHz and used it to communicate out to distances of 1200 miles
via amateur radio (callsign K3BFA).
Thanks, guygee...what an interesting and very eclectic crowd we have in here...
If you want to find out the specifics on the heights just ask the doc.....I am sure that him being a Recon veteran that he knows all that. And while were talking about it, find out the distinctions on the infrared satellites. WHat color signifies what height.....very easy to do....
Thanks, StormW...
With that said, what would you guys venture to predict for the next 7 days in the tropics?
StormW, does the NHC not name "extra" tropical systems? Why? TIA
1284. icmoore
Good morning StormW, You were saying for a long time wait for Oct. and we saw some activity are you forcasting more to come?
Guy,

Cream's song was "Tales of Brave Ulysses"

But I see your link is to that. Sorry.
96L up on Navy site

Link
THANKS, StormW, looks like it gets an invest anyways! lol

1286. nrtiwlnvragn 2:28 PM GMT on October 11, 2007 Hide this comment.
96L up on Navy site


uuuuuummm, finally! Nice comma! And, should be "Noel!"
Would you guys looks at the Yucatan and tell me 94L is still dead please?





yes 94L is still dead its long gone
ok so where is 29.9N 52.7W? at?
jamnkats, 94L is RIP, but I do see (I think) what you're seeing. There is a spin over the norther Yucatan and it's probably moving e, or ene. It doesn't look like much and I lose the circulation in the last frame. Shear it just to fierce for development imo. But, hey, we've seen some strange things this season.
Taz, out in the middle of the Atlantic.
1289. moonlightcowboy 7:32 AM PDT on October 11, 2007
THANKS, StormW, looks like it gets an invest anyways! lol

1286. nrtiwlnvragn 2:28 PM GMT on October 11, 2007 Hide this comment.
96L up on Navy site


uuuuuummm, finally! Nice comma! And, should be "Noel!"



thats what you said too the last few we had on the navy site LOL
96L is the blob in the upper-right corner of this image, which means fish if it develops (I would like it to, and perhaps become another Epsilon (LOL!)):



The blob in the Caribbean also looks interesting.
Cuba is looking GOOD!
1300. IKE
96L is the system that was north of PR...I think it was the one that the NHC said...might have remnants of Karen in it.

Yeah..it's a fish.
Thanks, TAZ, I think it's a CAT 5!!! What do you think? lol

-- 96L has a floater designate on the SSD site, but the sat hasn't moved yet, still on ol' 94L RIP.
jamnkats is talking about "this spin over the northern Yucatan", not 94L down south.

Did I blink and miss a storm? 94L was over NW Caribbean, 96L in the Atlantic. 95L?????
1304. nrtiwlnvragn 2:49 PM GMT on October 11, 2007
Did I blink and miss a storm? 94L was over NW Caribbean, 96L in the Atlantic. 95L?????



Maybe the Canary Islands thing?
No, 95L was about a week ago...about the time we had about four invests. It was in the nAtl, didn't last long. In fact, it was so far north, there was some debate here, if anything had ever formed that far north.
Thanks MLC
1308. IKE
NEW BLOG!
1298. StormW 10:44 AM EDT on October 11, 2007
I thought I explained it pretty well!


You Did.
perhaps a new T.D is forming....13N,66W,nice convection ,looks to have a closed center and a little bit of out flow to the North and to the South..any opinions? looks healthy but small