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A record quiet start to the 2010 Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:42 PM GMT on August 12, 2010

The remnants of Tropical Depression Five have re-organized this morning, and the storm is pounding Southeast Louisiana with heavy rains. Radar imagery out of New Orleans shows that the remains of TD 5 have have formed some respectable low-level spiral bands that have brought heavy rains in excess of five inches in some areas. However, with the circulation center now moving over land, not much further development can occur.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of TD Five's remains.

Why so quiet in the Atlantic?
The Tropical Atlantic is quiet, and there are no threat areas to discuss today. The Invest 93 system we were tracking has been destroyed by dry air and wind shear. There are a couple of long-range threats suggested by some of the models--the GFS model predicts a tropical depression could form off the coast of Mississippi six days from now, and the NOGAPS model thinks something could get going in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche seven days from now. Neither of these possibilities are worthy of concern at present. Overall, it's been a surprisingly quiet August, considering the pre-season predictions of a hyperactive season. According the National Hurricane Center, this hurricane season has been exactly average so far. There have been three named storms and one hurricane as of August 12. The average date of formation of the third named storm is August 13. One hurricane typically forms by August 10. One reason for this year's inactivity may be an unusual number of upper-level low pressure systems that have paraded across the tropical Atlantic. These lows, also called Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) lows, tend to bring high wind shear that inhibits tropical cyclone formation. The other major factor appears to be that vertical instability has been unusually low in the Atlantic over the past month. Instability is measured as the difference in temperature between the surface and the top of the troposphere (the highest altitude that thunderstorm tops can penetrate to.) If the surface is very warm and the top of the troposphere is cold, an unstable atmosphere results, which helps to enhance thunderstorm updrafts and promote hurricane development. Since SSTs in the Atlantic are at record highs, enhancing instability, something else must be going on. Dry air can act to reduce instability, and it appears that an unusually dry atmosphere over the Atlantic this month is responsible for the lack of instability.


Figure 2. Vertical instability (in °C) over the Caribbean (left) and tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles Islands and coast of Africa (right) in 2010. Normal instability is the black line, and this year's instability levels are in blue. The atmosphere became much more stable than normal in both regions at the end of July. This lack of instability also extends to the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic Ocean between Europe and North America, as well as the Western Pacific east of the Philippines, and the South Indian Ocean. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.

A record quiet start to the 2010 tropical cyclone season in the Northern Hemisphere
What is really odd about this year, though, is the lack of tropical cyclone activity across the entire Northern Hemisphere. Usually, if one ocean basin is experiencing a quiet season, one of the other ocean basins is going bonkers. That is not the case this year. Over in the Eastern Pacific, there have been five named storms and two hurricanes. The average is seven named storms and four hurricanes for this point in the season. This year's quiet season is not too surprising, since there is a moderate La Niña event underway, and La Niña conditions usually supresses Eastern Pacific hurricane activity. But over in the Western Pacific, which usually generates more tropical cyclones than any ocean basin on Earth, it has been a near-record quiet season. Just four named storms have occurred in the West Pacific this year, and the average for this date is eleven. Only one typhoon season has had fewer named storms this late in the season--1998, with just three. The total number of named storms in the Northern Hemisphere thus far this year is fifteen, which is the fewest since reliable records began in 1948. Second place belongs to 1983 and 1957, with eighteen named storms. According to an email I received from NOAA hurricane researcher Gabe Vecchi, the lack of tropical cyclones so far this year in the Northern Hemisphere is between a 1-in-80 and 1-in-100 year event.

So, what is causing this quiet tropical cyclone season? One possibility is that since Northern Hemisphere land areas have heated up to record temperatures this summer, this has created strong rising motion over the continents. This rising motion must be compensated by strong sinking motion over the adjacent oceans in order to conserve mass. Sinking air causes drying and an increase in stability. Another possibility is that the unusual jet stream configuration that is responsible for the Russia heat wave and record flooding in Pakistan is also bringing dry, stable air to the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone breeding grounds. It is also possible that climate change is causing the reduction in tropical cyclone activity, for a variety of complex reasons. Computer simulations of a future warmer climate generally show a reduction in global number of tropical cyclones (though the strongest storms get stronger), and it is possible we are seeing a preview of that future climate. Or, this year's quietness may simply be natural variability. It will be interesting to see when the Russian heat wave breaks if vertical instability over the Atlantic increases back to normal levels. Current forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models project the Russian heat wave to break late next week.

Moscow's air remains clear; coolest temperatures in two weeks
Moscow's winds remained favorable for keeping smoke away from the city today, and temperatures "cooled" to at Moscow's Domodedovo airport to 33°C (91°F)--the lowest maximum temperature since a high of 32°C (90°F) was recorded on July 30. Moscow's airport has reached a maximum temperature of 30°C (86°F) or higher for 35 consecutive days now (at Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string is 30 days.) Moscow's average high temperature for August 12 is 20°C (68°F). Moscow's high temperatures have averaged 15°C (27°F) above average so far this August--a truly extraordinary anomaly for a country so famous for its notorious cold weather. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 30 - 33°C (86 - 91°F) Thursday through Monday. This is still 23°F above normal, but will be a welcome change from the extreme heat of the past two weeks. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will begin to attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia beginning on Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010.

Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. centex
Steering

help4u u need help eating crow haha
1503. xcool
lol
Just for the record, in 2005, ST predicted every cyclone that was within 10 degrees to hit NOLA as a cat6. Katrina was roughly the 5th or 6th one that year that he forecast to hit NOLA.
.
There's nothing supernatural about it. Whoever he was he had a thing for forecasting cyclones to hit NOLA..
.
Then, when his dream turned into a real life tragedy....he stopped those forecasts.
.
I realize many think it's silly, but if anyone should get "credit" for forecasting Katrina's NOLA landfall, it's LaDobeLady and the ants that she reported...just for that one storm. And the ants were right.
1505. xcool



fun week head
1506. xcool
TD5 COME BACK..
ha that will keep him quiet cause seriously he does need help thats why his handle is help4u lol
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Just for the record, in 2005, ST predicted every cyclone that was within 10 degrees to hit NOLA as a cat6. Katrina was roughly the 5th or 6th one that year that he forecast to hit NOLA.
.
There's nothing supernatural about it. Whoever he was he had a thing for forecasting cyclones to hit NOLA..
.
Then, when his dream turned into a real life tragedy....he stopped those forecasts.
.
I realize many think it's silly, but if anyone should get "credit" for forecasting Katrina's NOLA landfall, it's LaDobeLady and the ants that she reported...just for that one storm. And the ants were right.


He was bound to eventually get it right...
1509. xcool
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Just for the record, in 2005, ST predicted every cyclone that was within 10 degrees to hit NOLA as a cat6. Katrina was roughly the 5th or 6th one that year that he forecast to hit NOLA.
.
There's nothing supernatural about it. Whoever he was he had a thing for forecasting cyclones to hit NOLA..
.
Then, when his dream turned into a real life tragedy....he stopped those forecasts.
.
I realize many think it's silly, but if anyone should get "credit" for forecasting Katrina's NOLA landfall, it's LaDobeLady and the ants that she reported...just for that one storm. And the ants were right.


I remember when he forecast Emily to hit New Orleans as a Cat 5.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Just for the record, in 2005, ST predicted every cyclone that was within 10 degrees to hit NOLA as a cat6. Katrina was roughly the 5th or 6th one that year that he forecast to hit NOLA.
.
There's nothing supernatural about it. Whoever he was he had a thing for forecasting cyclones to hit NOLA..
.
Then, when his dream turned into a real life tragedy....he stopped those forecasts.
.
I realize many think it's silly, but if anyone should get "credit" for forecasting Katrina's NOLA landfall, it's LaDobeLady and the ants that she reported...just for that one storm. And the ants were right.


yeah i remember him.......every storm was heading to New Orleans. I started reading the blog when Hurricane Emily was in the carribean. He was hell bent on Emily making landfall in New Orleans.
1514. JRRP
NOGAPS
00z
Link
Quoting JRRP:
NOGAPS
00z
Link


NOGAPS joining the GFS in the development of a Cape Verde storm in seven days. GFS has been foreseeing this for about two days or so now. It will be interesting indeed, to see if this continues.
ot.... but I just saw my first meteor of the night!!!
GFS


CMC


1522. xcool
game on now
xcool.. Its just us for now.. haha
Maybe the cape verde system will actually take place as progged. Can't beat the consistency! :)
Quoting sflawavedude:
Maybe the cape verde system will actually take place as progged. Can't beat the consistency! :)


If it doesn't, expect to hear the bustcasters.
1527. xcool
FLPandhandleJG ha
Quoting KoritheMan:


If it doesn't, expect to hear the bustcasters.


And I would be one to really question the predicted activeness of this season if the system doesn't form or do much.
Quoting sflawavedude:


And I would be one to really question the predicted activeness of this season if the system doesn't form or do much.


That's your prerogative. But I don't think many realize how quickly things can change. And they will. One needs only to look at the historical record to see that.
Anyone else looking at the thing over Central America (SW of this image. Definitely deserves at least a yellow near 0% circle IMO! More like 30% if you ask me.



Some nice storms in the southern Caribbean.. What y'all think?
1532. xcool
1533. xcool
Not much at the surface or the mid-levels with the Caribbean feature.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Not much at the surface or the mid-levels with the Caribbean feature.

ya I kinda figure that.. but T'storms are pretty impressive though..
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:

ya I kinda figure that.. but T'storms are pretty impressive though..


They are impressive. They appear to be caused by the interaction of the southern end of a tropical wave and the semipermanent Colombian heat low. No development here. It will come. Trust me.
SW Carib AOI has vort at 850 but weak there is a upper level anticyclone coming over it good divergence and convergence should be slow or stationary to move yep something to watch
1538. xcool
ecmwf cmc GFS TD5XXX model support
hmm the nhc 24-72 hours forecast shows a tropical wave and a low pressure system to show up just east of Nicaragua in 24 hours so I don't see how this is the semipermanent Colombian heat low sorry but by 72 hours they lost it but has our trough split with a developing low and a few outher surface troughs out in the atlantic maybe that is the spark in the fireworks
1540. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
ecmwf cmc GFS TD5XXX model support


Yup and the models have it turning around and heading for the Gulf, might get interesting or messy if that happens.

I plan on attending a Starcraft 2 tournament near New Orleans on August 22. I hope TD5 doesn't decide to pull some surprises. >_>

wunderkid, you could be right. That was just what I concluded after a quick glance. Didn't really take an in depth look.
tropics quiet as hell as everyones said either its going to stay this way or its the calm before the storm, as a meteo major i really want to see some amazing stuff, as a person im hoping against that.
KoritheMan whats your sc2 user if you want to post it here. Id like to play some wu hc blog peeps
1544. xcool
THURSDAY 9:30 PM
WHERES THE DUST?

A look at at the CIMSS Saharan dust reveals that there is little left.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitEW&time=

The tropics are getting ready.

Earlier in the day there was a post here that wasnt supposed to get on. I wrote it, then when I re read I said, oh what the heck if you are right you are right, if you are not, you are not, dont let these people upset you. The combination of the meteo dept at PSU not being what it was when I was here ( we were the acknowledged number one meteo school in the nation, turning out 2/3rds of the worlds meteorologists We didnt have a department driven by agendas and concerned with how much funding they could get, while having an electronic map wall that can heat every house in Nome Alaska in the dead of winter) and a betrayal my family suffered at the hands of the athletic dept...put it this way, they dont value the Bastardi's in their so called PSU athletic family, and all I have left here is the wrestling team. No longer will I try to promote anything that has to do with their meteo dept, or for that matter, anything beyond where my true education was.. in that wrestling room.

BY JOE
Quoting david276:
KoritheMan whats your sc2 user if you want to post it here. Id like to play some wu hc blog peeps


ArtofLimit. Character code 565.
I wopuld not be surprised if td5 become a ts after all anyway it always wanted to become one what a stuborn girl just dosen't know when to quit LOL
1547. xcool
BEEP
1548. xcool


ADD UKMET



Like sands thru the hourglass, these are the days of our lives....
If we don't get another named storm over the next few days, even 2009 is going to catch up with us for the amount of named storms.
Quoting KatywasnoLady05:
Like sands thru the hourglass, these are the days of our lives....


lol
1552. xcool
LOL
Quoting weatherblog:
If we don't get another named storm over the next few days, even 2009 is going to catch up with us for the amount of named storms.


True, but if 2009 can churn out 4 storms in a single month during a strong and intensifying El Nino, we should be able to do at least that this year.
1554. kathin9
Climate change is causing this reduction in hurricanes, BUT, climate change is causing and increase in strong hurricanes, wow! Now there is some good science to sink my teeth into Dr. Masters. Drinking some of that good old Al "the pervert" kool aid? Can we just be happy there are no hurricanes thus far, and as for the storms, I had to evacuate for Alex, then you tried to make the next TD into something it wasn't, then there was Bonnie which by the way never should have been named, and then there was Colin which also never should have been named, the winds didn't support a TS status, but all for your own self grandizing in being right about all the storms we are going to be having, because of global warming, aka climate change, we are hammered with the possibility of the next storm before they even leave the continent. Please report when there is something to report on, I live on the gulf coast, in deep south texas and do not need to live in total fear of a hurricane until there is at least a storm.
Quoting KoritheMan:


True, but if 2009 can churn out 4 storms in a single month during a strong and intensifying El Nino, we should be able to do at least that this year.


It should also be noted that we've already had two tropical cyclones develop this month, and it's not even half over yet. And this was during a period of hostile conditions. Just imagine what might happen when conditions improve.
TD 5 remnants and coc is spinning just south of Gulfport and producing some pretty heavy rain here right now. I thought it had moved over land until I zoomed in on radar. Maybe someone can oopy the zoomed in radar on this page because I dont know how.
XCOOL, do you have a list where I can find all the links to all the places where you get these cool satellite images and model forecasts??

I'd appreciate it.
1558. xcool
iammothernature EMAIL ME LATER/MY SON IS WAKE UP .BYE ALL
Quoting KoritheMan:


It should also be noted that we've already had two tropical cyclones develop this month, and it's not even half over yet. And this was during a period of hostile conditions. Just imagine what might happen when conditions improve.


Yeah, there's no denying that, but we've been saying this so far the whole season and it still hasn't come to pass. Time is running out and it looks like the tropics may be quiet for another week. 2004 had a busy August/September but they are already into the heart of their season. If things don't start picking up by the end of the month (which there is a chance it won't), then this may very well be a much slower season that we all (including me) originally thought.
Quoting weatherblog:


Yeah, there's no denying that, but we've been saying this the whole season and it still hasn't come to pass. Time is running out and it looks like the tropics may be quiet for another month. 2004 had a busy August/September but they are already into the heart of their season. If things don't start picking up by the end of the month (which there is a chance it won't), then this may very well be a much slower season that we all (including me) originally thought.


Oh it's definitely going to be a slow season -- at least insofar as the predictions from CSU are concerned. But it's still going to be very active, probably something along the lines of 1998 or 1999.

More importantly, we've been seeing a lot more storms appear in the model fields over the last week or so, which is something we hadn't really seen before. That seems to me, to indicate a pattern shift.
oliver stone may make a movie about the 2010 season if this keeps up
1564. Hhunter
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Just for the record, in 2005, ST predicted every cyclone that was within 10 degrees to hit NOLA as a cat6. Katrina was roughly the 5th or 6th one that year that he forecast to hit NOLA.
.
There's nothing supernatural about it. Whoever he was he had a thing for forecasting cyclones to hit NOLA..
.
Then, when his dream turned into a real life tragedy....he stopped those forecasts.
.
I realize many think it's silly, but if anyone should get "credit" for forecasting Katrina's NOLA landfall, it's LaDobeLady and the ants that she reported...just for that one storm. And the ants were right.


yes..this is true
1565. IKE
Looking at the 00Z ECMWF, it shows a weak low...appears to be the remains of TD5...near the northern gulf coast...next Tuesday. Also shows a low near 20N and about 45W at 240 hours. This appears to be the low the GFS has been spinning up into a major fish cane the last 2 runs. ECMWF keeps it much weaker.


Here's the eastern ATL view through August 23rd...Link

..........................................


SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES 1007 MB...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...ALONG THE SE MISSISSIPPI COAST NEAR 30N89W WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NE AND INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK E TO
W RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG 25N THROUGH SAT THEN SHIFT W SUN.
THE WEAKENING LOW PRES WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE SE U.S. THIS
WEEKEND AND IS EXPECTED TO SINK BACK TOWARD THE SW AND INTO THE
FAR NE GULF MON AND MOVE W INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF TUE NIGHT AND
WED...ACCOMPANIED BY ACTIVE WEATHER.
Good morning.
1567. IKE
And a high-five to Dr. Masters for trying to explain why this 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has been so quiet. Excellent blog!

Also...the 2009 season is going to catch up with the 2010 season on Monday. By then both seasons will have had 3 named systems(assuming 2010 doesn't have one between now and Monday, which looks unlikely).
1568. aquak9
(peeks in)
Quoting IKE:
And a high-five to Dr. Masters for trying to explain why this 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has been so quiet. Excellent blog!


Quiet, that is, as measured up against pre-season forecasts of a hyperactive season; it hasn't actually been "quiet" from a climatologically average POV.

And, yes, excellent blog post, indeed...
1570. IKE
Quoting Neapolitan:


Quiet, that is, as measured up against pre-season forecasts of a hyperactive season; it hasn't actually been "quiet" from a climatologically average POV.

And, yes, excellent blog post, indeed...


You are correct.

And from post 1544 by xcool with Bastardi's thoughts of....The tropics are getting ready.

Joe...you thought they would in July. You thought 93L could be Danielle.

Anyone could say they're "getting ready" in mid August. Climatology says it will heat up soon.

With that Tuesday AEW:

GFS has backed off a bit from its apocalyptocane prediction, CMC drops it, and the Euro is as it was - knows it's there, but is distinctly unimpressed.
1572. surfmom
Good Friday 13th Morning~ some nice FIREBALLS in the sky courtesy of the Perseid Showers - 2 last evening and few this early AM.
Now I'm wandering, Coffee in hand, trying to see what the weather scene will be this weekend.
Good morning all. Been reading back in case anybody else nominated a storm...

Legends of the Wunderblog

13. Ike 2008 aka "Ike Jr."; "It's gonna slam South Florida!!!... NOT"

Quoting surfmom:
Good Friday 13th Morning~ some nice FIREBALLS in the sky courtesy of the Perseid Showers - 2 last evening and few this early AM.
Now I'm wandering, Coffee in hand, trying to see what the weather scene will be this weekend.


Morning Surfie; wanted to see some, but as it always is, too cloudy to see anything.
1575. IKE
I can't recall the last time I've seen remains of a tropical system moving east along the northern gulf-coast, in August....

Quoting IKE:


You are correct.

And from post 1544 by xcool with Bastardi's thoughts of....The tropics are getting ready.

Joe...you thought they would in July. You thought 93L could be Danielle.

Anyone could say they're "getting ready" in mid August. Climatology says it will heat up soon.



I won't turn this into a JB bashing session, but, yeah, I see him as a bit of a nowcaster. That is, he'll loudly predict sunshine, but then walk outside later, see that it's pouring, and run back in to change his forecast to "Rain". That's only human, I guess...but JB's failing is that he then trumpets loudly the fact that he called for rain when all the other idiot meteorologists were calling for sunshine, completely failing to mention that he himself was among the loudest of those idiots.

Oh, well. If it weren't for clowns, life wouldn't be quite the circus it is, eh? ;-)
Remarkably quiet out there....

1579. surfmom
Quoting Cotillion:


Morning Surfie; wanted to see some, but as it always is, too cloudy to see anything.


Hey Cot! was lucky I saw what I did - kinda in between clouds...

Sadly most folks want to be entertained more then they want information - so Mr. B gives them the vaudeville show they want
1580. surfmom
Any word on the shoreline in regards to OIL mixed w/this TD????
1581. IKE
Mobile,AL....

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...AN INTERESTING PATTERN PLAYS
OUT FOR THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM MOVING THE SURFACE LOW WESTWARD ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
MONDAY TO NEAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A TRAILING
FRONT FROM A CANADIAN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
STALLS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND APPEARS TROPICAL IN
NATURE AND THE GEM SOLUTION IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AS WELL. THE
EXTENDED RANGE HPC DISCUSSION NOTES THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS FOR
THIS TREND BUT SUSPECTS MODEL FEEDBACK PROBLEMS
SO HAVE GONE WITH A
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND WEAKENS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR. CONSIDERING THIS HAVE STAYED WITH
GOOD CHANCE DAYTIME POPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS BUT DID NOT GO AS COOL AS THE MEX FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOR THE ABOVE REASONS.
1582. aquak9
Baha- probably no one here remembers tartin' and twinkin' with Leftyy...

or the night we all said "WTH is graupel?"
1583. IKE
GFS has a potent eastern ATL system on the 6Z run @ 180 hours....




But then sends it to fish-land at 300 hours....

And here is the reason for the quietude...



The tip of that high is down near 15N.....
Quoting aquak9:
Baha- probably no one here remembers tartin' and twinkin' with Leftyy...

or the night we all said "WTH is graupel?"
LOL.... there are a few of us left.... lol I kinda miss lefty [never thought the day would come when I would say that.... lol] And that graupel thing is why I have a soft spot for TC Felix... that was one amazing little storm...

1586. MahFL
StormW, please re-asssure us all the tropics will explode soon.....thanks.
Re: 1584 and the anomolous AB high position: OPC is forecasting it to stay that way until Sunday - Monday time frame. It's not that there aren't any waves out there, it's just that they're really far south, and under the influence of this rather elongated high.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning all!


Morning Storm.

---

On another note, looks like Bradley quit as USA coach - onto manage Villa with Lerner. Funny, considering Birmingham (albeit AL) was mentioned yesterday.

---

As the UKMET's tropical guidance only goes out for 3 days, might see if they latch onto to the system off Africa by Sun/Mon (though, not sure why they're so respected; they're not particularly here).
1589. aquak9
baha- the night we followed recon on felix- from around 10pm to 2am- we were here, dropping our jaws and saying OMG...that was a most intense night here on the blogs.

I think I chewed off every last fingernail and toenail. And knowing LRandyB was heading IN, after Felix spat the NOAA hunter OUT...

then there was LRandyB's video afterwards. whoa.
1590. MahFL
ex TD5 does indeed seem to be getting stronger overland, most odd.
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL.... there are a few of us left.... lol I kinda miss lefty [never thought the day would come when I would say that.... lol] And that graupel thing is why I have a soft spot for TC Felix... that was one amazing little storm...


I have been here awhile and mostly lurk, but i rem. leftyy420 and still chat with him on another blog.
Quoting aquak9:
Baha- probably no one here remembers tartin' and twinkin' with Leftyy...

or the night we all said "WTH is graupel?"


I remember the graupel (though I was lurkin' those days). Everyone was stunned with the 189mph wind reading or whatever it was.

One nasty storm.
Quoting aquak9:
baha- the night we followed recon on felix- from around 10pm to 2am- we were here, dropping our jaws and saying OMG...that was a most intense night here on the blogs.

I think I chewed off every last fingernail and toenail. And knowing LRandyB was heading IN, after Felix spat the NOAA hunter OUT...

then there was LRandyB's video afterwards. whoa.
Yeah.... then the other thing I remember is that persistent Wward trek. Nobody could believe it would just keep going like that... not really gain any latitude to speak of.... actually brushed the ABC islands down there near the SA coast...


Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL.... there are a few of us left.... lol I kinda miss lefty [never thought the day would come when I would say that.... lol] And that graupel thing is why I have a soft spot for TC Felix... that was one amazing little storm...



Just because we ain't a postin doesn't mean we ain't a readin.
1595. IKE
Wide view of the ATL. One thing I notice is the sun reflecting off of the dust off Africa....




Oh excuse me GOOD MORNING all very humid here this morning in z-hills fl
1597. calder
Quoting MahFL:
StormW, please re-asssure us all the tropics will explode soon.....thanks.


Not sure reassure is the right word here?!
Ike, look at 10N 30W. That's where the latest Twave is... and it's likely to dip a little below 10N before it rounds that high. After that we'll see.... That's my best hope right now for something firing up between now and Sunday... lol I don't expect much out of former TD5 or the trough off the E CONUS....
MAYBE WE WILL HAVE A BIG NOVEMBER AND MAYBE DECEMBER IF THERE ARE HIGH WATER TEMPS AND WIND SHEAR IS LOW WE MAY SEE A STRONG SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER AS WELL PEOPLE DONT BE NOT ON YOUR GUARD CAUSE REMEMBER FOR A 3 YEAR PERIOD FROM 05-08 WE HAD A STRONG TS OR A HURRICANE IE OPHELIA
1601. IKE
NOGAPS has a strong vorticity heading for the African coast in 144 hrs./6 days...link. But it looks like it's heading it off pretty far north, in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF.


Quoting BahaHurican:
Ike, look at 10N 30W. That's where the latest Twave is... and it's likely to dip a little below 10N before it rounds that high. After that we'll see.... That's my best hope right now for something firing up between now and Sunday... lol I don't expect much out of former TD5 or the trough off the E CONUS....


I see what you're talking about but it's pretty void of convection for now.
Nominations for Legends of the Wunderground are now closed. Our nominations are as follows:

1. Katrina 2005 "StormTop said it would hit NOLA"
2. Rita 2005 "I tried to evacuate"
3. Wilma 2005 "the definitive pinhole eye"
4. Chris 2006 "Sheared again… Naturally"
5. Ernesto 2006 "yes it is; no it's not"
6. Dean 2007 "is that cat 5 landfall????"
7. Felix 2007 "graupel in the guts"
8. Humberto 2007? "Talk about explosive cyclogenesis"
9. Karen 2007 "never say die"
10. Dolly 2008 "no closed low"
11. Fay 2008 "Florida vacation"
12. Gustav 2008 "I can fake u out"
13. Ike 2008 aka "Ike Jr."; "Beeline for South Florida! ... NOT"
14. Portlight 2008 formation "We are the Blog"
15. Marco 2008 "World's Smallest 'cane or Largest Tornado"

These are currently listed in chronological order.

I'll figure out how to do the voting thing in a few [need coffee]. I figure voting from 8 a.m. EDT to 8 p.m. CDT? Do I need to keep the poll open later? lol
Quoting calder:


Not sure reassure is the right word here?!


Lol. No he got it right.
Quoting IKE:
NOGAPS has a strong vorticity heading for the African coast in 144 hrs./6 days...link. But it looks like it's heading it off pretty far north, in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF.




I see what you're talking about but it's pretty void of convection for now.
Hey, one can always hope... lol... with the high set up the way it is, I really wouldn't expect anything except a NW/NNW track with that... at least until Monday.
Quoting StormW:


Good morning Stef!


Good morning Storm! :)
Funny how 2009 did not capture anyone's attention, really.
Quoting StormW:


As far as?


Pertaining to the Wunderblog legendary moments that Baha is carrying out.
Quoting StormW:
Anyone curious about this?



I would be if I could see it. Lol. Looks like a storm over NOLA. Or is that td5?
1614. FLdewey
Is that lil swirl still spinning around?
1615. Keys99
Quoting StormW:
Anyone curious about this?




I'am What is it Showing as the flow direction?
The southern Caribbean looks pretty active this morning, any model support for the area near Panama?
U know, I don't remember what happened in the Tropical Atlantic last year...

EDIT: Except Fred.
Quoting StormW:


That is the steering layers forecast out to 144 hours. What it's saying is..."forget about fish".


Ahh. OK. Thanks. I think? Lol.
Storm, you know we are always curious when you only post a graphic - LOL.
Quoting StormW:


That is the steering layers forecast out to 144 hours. What it's saying is..."forget about fish".

You can see it better here:

PSU


You mean for the GFS estimated storm?

Looking at middle/deep considering the potential intensity? Seems to be a fair bit of divergence between the three at deep layer.
Oh, I see I can't post fast enough this morning. Need more coffee.
Quoting StormW:


We had 9-3-2 in a El Nino year.
True, but not really "legendary". 2006 wasn't that different #-wise, 10-5-2.
Getting more coffee, then reading back to see what info I've already missed.

BTW - Morning, everyone!
Quoting StormW:


We had 9-3-2 in a El Nino year.
Good morning Storm.Good to see you.I have the most ominus clouds over me this morning.I would take pics but dont know how to work the new camera.LOL
BRB
Quoting StormW:


I'll give ya a hint...the CMC on those maps, has outperformed the other two by a long shot.


And the CMC at the deep layer doesn't look good.

It won't show it on the model as it doesn't pick it up on the SLP or 850Vort, but yeah.

In fact, the way it's positioned, almost reminds you of a certain storm a couple of years ago.
Yeah, that little risidual swirl that used to be TD-5 is approaching Mobile. It better hurry up and move through because I need to fire up the smoker in a few hours.
Quoting BahaHurican:
U know, I don't remember what happened in the Tropical Atlantic last year...

EDIT: Except Fred.


I remember watching the storm near Puerto Rico, I think. She would flair up all night and strip her clothes off during the day. Lol. Don't remember which one it was though.
1633. MahFL
exTD5 will prolly suck up more moisture from Mobile Bay, also the original track way north in LA amd MS seems to be pretty much history.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I remember watching the storm near Puerto Rico, I think. She would flair up all night and strip her clothes off during the day. Lol. Don't remember which one it was though.


Erika?

or Ana? Both did roughly the same sorta thing.
1635. MahFL
I actully see banding now on the radar on the SW side.
1636. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Quoting MahFL:
exTD5 will prolly suck up more moisture from Mobile Bay, also the original track way north in LA amd MS seems to be pretty much history.
I remember Fredrick in 1979 when it pulled the water from Mobile Bay.
1638. b4dirt
Storm is that a bermuda high forming?
Mobile Radar

Link
1640. P451
Good Morning, Kids.

A little loop of our blue marble this AM: Water Vapor Imagery.

Thanks to StormW who posted the link to this site a year or so ago. LINK



Looking at this image...I can't help but mutter to myself... Is this December?

1641. IKE
Another one bites the dust in the east-PAC. This one had an 80% chance of developing just yesterday....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 13 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
HAS MOVED INLAND NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
LIKELY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
THE LOW MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
Quoting Cotillion:


Erika?

or Ana? Both did roughly the same sorta thing.


Erika! That's the one. Gave us night owls quite a show. Lol. But I'm glad she couldn't hang on long enough to get too bad.
1643. P451
Quoting BahaHurican:
Nominations for Legends of the Wunderground are now closed. Our nominations are as follows:

1. Katrina 2005 "StormTop said it would hit NOLA"
2. Rita 2005 "I tried to evacuate"
3. Wilma 2005 "the definitive pinhole eye"
4. Chris 2006 "Sheared again… Naturally"
5. Ernesto 2006 "yes it is; no it's not"
6. Dean 2007 "is that cat 5 landfall????"
7. Felix 2007 "graupel in the guts"
8. Humberto 2007? "Talk about explosive cyclogenesis"
9. Karen 2007 "never say die"
10. Dolly 2008 "no closed low"
11. Fay 2008 "Florida vacation"
12. Gustav 2008 "I can fake u out"
13. Ike 2008 aka "Ike Jr."; "Beeline for South Florida! ... NOT"
14. Portlight 2008 formation "We are the Blog"
15. Marco 2008 "World's Smallest 'cane or Largest Tornado"

These are currently listed in chronological order.

I'll figure out how to do the voting thing in a few [need coffee]. I figure voting from 8 a.m. EDT to 8 p.m. CDT? Do I need to keep the poll open later? lol


Karen is a legend on here.

StormTop also predicted a hurricane for south Texas that would tighten up to a Cat 2 when it reached land and would hit S.Padre Island... when almost nobody thought possible.

Dude's a legend. Perhaps in his own mind....but well he called that one. I think it was two years ago.

1644. IKE
Snooze-fest continues....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA
1645. P451
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Erika! That's the one. Gave us night owls quite a show. Lol. But I'm glad she couldn't hang on long enough to get too bad.


Her problem was mid level shear. If she didn't have that mid level shear she would have been an absolute monster given how she kept on not just clinging to life but generated constant impressive convective bursts.

That storm wanted to kill.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131133
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA

And, remember this is August 13th.
1647. P451
Quoting weatherblog:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131133
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA

And, remember this is August 13th.


Absolutely.

Things will eventually pop. Even if we have just one week of prime atmospheric conditions.... LOOK OUT. The fuel is there waiting to be tapped.

"It only takes one."
"Remember Andrew."

These are valid cliches to be thrown around given the fuel out there.
1648. IKE
I'd look for the last week of August(from the 23rd on), until things may pick up to where someone is threatened by a significant system(hurricane), if then.
There is an area of interest north of Panama where there is deep persistent convection.
1650. Patrap
Good Friday da 13th

HPC Preliminary Caribbean Discussion

Excerpt:

ON THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE...LOOKING UPSTREAM OVER THE
ATLANTIC...MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT 250/500 HPA
LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE AZORES...PAVING THE WAY FOR A BROAD/DEEP
TUTT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO RETROGRESS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS LIKELY TO EBB...THUS MAKING IT MORE CONDUCIVE
TO CYCLONE FORMATION. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS RESPONDING TO THIS
SCENARIO...AS THEY ARE STARTING TO SHOW RISK OF CYCLONES
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON THE TIMING...THE RISK OF FORMATION
IS WHAT COUNTS.
1652. IKE
I just looked at all of the basins in the northern hemisphere...on this website and the Navy invest site...and there's nothing beyond the invest that just went inland in the east-PAC, on the planet! On August 13th.
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Yeah, that little risidual swirl that used to be TD-5 is approaching Mobile. It better hurry up and move through because I need to fire up the smoker in a few hours.
Yeah, and you can have that little residual swirl cause it has kept me awake most of the night booming and pouring and booming some more...gonna need to take a boat out to deliver the mail in today...Been sitting over us all night here in Ocean Springs just south of I-10
G'morning Pat, how are you?
Any models still showing exTD5 coming back out into the gom?
1657. Patrap
Getting the Boy to Jesuit to Start his Junior Year.
Why a Friday,..I havent a clue.

Good morn' to yas
1658. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Any models still showing exTD5 coming back out into the gom?


Several of them do....ECMWF...GFS...CMC...NOGAPS.
Quoting StormW:


That is the steering layers forecast out to 144 hours. What it's saying is..."forget about fish".

You can see it better here:

PSU


I see that StormW but why are the models showing this a fish. Based on steering I see a IKE to Frances type track. Any thoughts?
1660. Patrap





'Global Weirding': Extreme Climate Events Dominate The Summer


A heatwave in Russia is sparking wildfires that are driving residents from Moscow and devastating the country's wheat crop. A fifth of Pakistan is underwater and millions are deluged by floods in Asia. Another heatwave is torturing Mexico and the East Coast of the United States. An incomprehensibly large chunk of ice has broken off a glacier in Greenland, the most significant climate event there in 50 years.

Most scientists caution that no single event can be tied specifically to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. But climate-change deniers quickly point to the first snowfall in winter as evidence against global warming. If that's the standard, the extreme climate events all across the globe must say something about whether climate change is already upon us. Indeed, the regularity of the events is beginning to undermine the descriptor "extreme". Extreme is the new normal.

"We're setting climate records at a record-setting pace," David Orr, a professor of environmental studies and politics at Oberlin College, told HuffPost. "More hottest hots, driest dries, wettest wets, windiest wind conditions. So it's all part of a pattern. If you ask is this evidence of climate destabilization, the only scientific answer you can give is: It is consistent with what we can expect." Orr is the author of "Down to the Wire: Confronting Climate Collapse" and five other books on politics and the environment.

The Pentagon announced in a report earlier this year that new patterns in the weather "may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the world." And a new report from the National Wildlife Federation explores the unsettling implications of continued warming: climate models indicate that if nothing is done -- and nothing is being done -- extreme fluctuations will only become more common. The warning is timely, if the steady rise of international weather-related disasters is any indication.
1661. beell
Gravity wave from collapsing t-storms over the Yucatan visible on the wv loop this morning-if you look quick). Caused a flare-up in the BOC (circle). Enhanced lift from the wave also showing up at the peak of the wave (other circle).

SSD WV Loop

Photobucket
Quoting BahaHurican:
Nominations for Legends of the Wunderground are now closed. Our nominations are as follows:

1. Katrina 2005 "StormTop said it would hit NOLA"
2. Rita 2005 "I tried to evacuate"
3. Wilma 2005 "the definitive pinhole eye"
4. Chris 2006 "Sheared again… Naturally"
5. Ernesto 2006 "yes it is; no it's not"
6. Dean 2007 "is that cat 5 landfall????"
7. Felix 2007 "graupel in the guts"
8. Humberto 2007? "Talk about explosive cyclogenesis"
9. Karen 2007 "never say die"
10. Dolly 2008 "no closed low"
11. Fay 2008 "Florida vacation"
12. Gustav 2008 "I can fake u out"
13. Ike 2008 aka "Ike Jr."; "Beeline for South Florida! ... NOT"
14. Portlight 2008 formation "We are the Blog"
15. Marco 2008 "World's Smallest 'cane or Largest Tornado"

These are currently listed in chronological order.

I'll figure out how to do the voting thing in a few [need coffee]. I figure voting from 8 a.m. EDT to 8 p.m. CDT? Do I need to keep the poll open later? lol


I'm too much of a noob to know what's legend. Although I have heard of most of those. Lol.

I was saddened by Katrina.
I did evac from Rita.
I was still on "vacation" during Wilma.
The only weather I remember from 2006 was going fishing on my dad's birthday, Jan.5th and it was hot.
I learned about Dean and Felix after the fact.
And I am grateful that all I got was Humberto and that whole WHAT THE....was that!??
Got Some of Dolly's rain bands up here.
Fay was my first. :) To track that is. My iniation into WU.
Gustav did fake me out! I ran but he missed me.
Ah Ike. He wasn't in a hurry to get anywhere, the big lumbering beast! Made my house oceanfront property for a couple days.
I do remember Marco.
And Portlight is great. Just hope they never need to come back here. :)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Any models still showing exTD5 coming back out into the gom?


I believe all the models show this. The only thing is they all show this going back into the Gulf in different areas. Most likely entrance seems to be Applachie Bay.
1664. Patrap
US Marines arrive to help Pakistan flood efforts as Zardari finally arrives

A shipload of US Marines and helicopters arrived to boost relief efforts in flooded Pakistan, as President Asif Ali Zardari made his first visit to victims.
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Yeah, and you can have that little residual swirl cause it has kept me awake most of the night booming and pouring and booming some more...gonna need to take a boat out to deliver the mail in today...Been sitting over us all night here in Ocean Springs just south of I-10


oh I hear ya, 3 am big time boomers almost rolled me out of bed, and it poured rained. Local met said Biloxi got 2 inches while Pascagoula is almost at 4 inches. Funny, Tommy Richards said the former TD5 will curve around to Mobile....hummmmmmm

does anyone have any models to support this?
1667. IKE
Jeff9641....the GFS weakens the ATL high on days 11-12.

Here's day 11.....



Here's day 12.....

1668. Patrap
A weak high is NEVER good,specially in the Atlantic in August
Quoting StormW:


Thanks for the post, nrt!.
Go figure, hey?


It is the climatological time of year for the Tropical Atlantic to start up. Shear at a minimum, instability and moisture increasing.


Quoting Patrap:
A weak high is NEVER good,specially in the Atlantic in August



why
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


oh I hear ya, 3 am big time boomers almost rolled me out of bed, and it poured rained. Local met said Biloxi got 2 inches while Pascagoula is almost at 4 inches. Funny, Tommy Richards said the former TD5 will curve around to Mobile....hummmmmmm

does anyone have any models to support this?
sometimes I wonder about Tommy, and I have a small rain gauge that is overflowing at 2 inches ...
Quoting IKE:
Jeff9641....the GFS weakens the ATL high on days 11-12.

Here's day 11.....



Here's day 12.....



Yep, I see that hits the weakness and fishy it is. Let's keep the fishy's coming! Very quite Atlantic basin this year. 6 years ago on Friday 13th I dealt with Charley and as a reult no power for 11 days afterward then came Frances, and then Jeanne. Charley was the worst by far though as UCF were I went to school took a major beating from Charley and so did OIA as a couple hangers were destroyed by 110 mph winds.
Good morning Patrap,Baha
1676. Patrap
Quoting poknsnok:



why



Allows the Movement under her,towards the East coast ,or Higher strike areas.

And they have a nasty habit of building back and turning Storms toward Land.

And theres da Humor part..
1678. Patrap
morn' superpete
Negative NAO.
1680. FLdewey
Nary a wind report in Nawlins yesterday...

Morning Pat,
I'm tired of watching x-regen-xTD5 from the LA side, getting ready to drive through the teeth of the storm and watch it from the L.A. side from Ft. Morgan - see if it comes back around.
Things are nice and quiet my friends :)Let's hope it stays that way .
1683. Patrap
1681. LAlurker


Love Ft. Morgan,,well save for Robertsdale Police,..LOL

Did work on two Beach Homes on Piers after Georges in 98.

Dem Blue Angels scared the doo-doo outta me one morn..



Good morning Patrap,Baha
Quoting Patrap:
morn' superpete
Are you dried out on N.O. yet?
Looks like I may finally get some rain.Local weather says it should be in Wilmer Ala.in a few.I am just North of there.
1688. Patrap
Quoting superpete:
Good morning Patrap,BahaAre you dried out on N.O. yet?


Some..but trouble is coming from the Nwest this am. Some got 4-5 inches in a few Hours yesterday and the BAdly drained areas arent too Happy bout it.

They say we need a Billion to repair the Underground drainage from K,,and 40 mil a year to maintain.

Da new Mayor is gonna have a PC today on dat.



1689. Patrap


Quoting StormW:


Two things off the top of my head...heat piles up in the Atlantic Basin, and a Negative NAO Value


UGH! Two of my least favorite words!
DestinJeff for whatever reason had most of his post deleted by administrators. I guess they don't like the graphic he post all the time like we don't know when the peak of hurricane season.
Good summary at 1660 by Patrap. Thanks.
1694. Patrap
Itsa tad early for a summary but the weaker AB High is good for some,,not so good for others,and maybe real good if recurvature to da Phishes becomes da pattern.
Quoting Patrap:
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.




Hardly a cloud. WOW! Amazingly quite right now.
Quoting Patrap:
1681. LAlurker


Love Ft. Morgan,,well save for Robertsdale Police,..LOL

Did work on two Beach Homes on Piers after Georges in 98.

Dem Blue Angels scared the doo-doo outta me one morn..




Gotta behave through Loxley, Robertsdale and Foley. Especially this year since tourist seasoon was a bust, thanks to BP. - Trying to raise money.
During their off-season (Mid-November to early Jan) the Blues do their practice focused right by our place in Ft. Morgan. Unfortunately, we're usually only there on the weekends and their practices are Tues.- Wed.
1697. Patrap
Quoting LAlurker:

Gotta behave through Loxley, Robertsdale and Foley. Especially this year since tourist seasoon was a bust, thanks to BP. - Trying to raise money.
During their off-season (Mid-November to early Jan) the Blues do their practice focused right by our place in Ft. Morgan. Unfortunately, we're usually only there on the weekends and their practices are Tues.- Wed.


Cool,

..wasnt their a UFO story from Robertsdale years ago?

That I could believe.
Quoting StormW:


That is the steering layers forecast out to 144 hours. What it's saying is..."forget about fish".

You can see it better here:

PSU

OK I'll bite the hook..
Why no more fish storms? All of them have a trough in the 700-200 upper level maps as well as you can tell by the low level steering there is a weakness in the MA ridge even though winds are E->W except in NOGAPS
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
sometimes I wonder about Tommy, and I have a small rain gauge that is overflowing at 2 inches ...


hehe I wonder about all 3 of them!! I really like Rob Knite (sp?)the weekend met,
Good Morning WU...



1705. surfmom
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
sometimes I wonder about Tommy, and I have a small rain gauge that is overflowing at 2 inches ...


go check Rainman32 - I got the best rain gauge - LARGE numbers & room for quantities of rain per his recommendation
1706. tkeith
Quoting DestinJeff:


I'll make sure and limit my entries then to just those that say how the season is about to EXPLODE I guess.

Or maybe to GFS forecast MJO for the next 16 days.
OR...you could personally attack peoples opinions and posts, but then you wouldn't be the DestinJeff I know...
Quoting StormW:


Well, the only weakness I see in shallow and mid layer, is from near 70W-80W. When this thing comes off the African coast, I doubt by 144 hours it's gonna be a Major Hurricane. So, mid layer steering at best to that time frame.

Those are steering winds right? So what causes the big hump between 0-25N at 50W?


Pensacola News Journal.
Todays editorial page regarding Whitehouse Energy Advisor, Carol Browner (who formerly headed up the EPA)whose comment last week
didn't sit well with university professors.

Said Browner,

" My understanding of dissolved oil is that it is like if you take sugar and put it in a cup of hot tea, the molecules are gone."


Link
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Pensacola News Journal.
Todays editorial page regarding Whitehouse Energy Advisor, Carol Browner (who formerly headed up the EPA)whose comment last week
didn't sit well with university professors.

Said Browner,

" My understanding of dissolved oil is that it is like if you take sugar and put it in a cup of hot tea, the molecules are gone."


Link


Is THAT why my coffee is brown?
1710. IKE
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update August 13th. 2010


Off til Monday....enjoy your weekend. I figured it was slow based on only a five minute discussion.
Maybe this will lighten the crowd around here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJEzl31zL-I
1712. Patrap
Maybe try da "tea"..


at a "Party" with Sugar..


Thats usually draws a crowd.

LOL
1713. NEwxguy
Pat,did you have your Saints party last night?
One thing that I have learned on this blog relative to potential storms and then tracks is model consistency. The GFS has been consistent now not only for just several runs but for several days.
1716. MahFL
Quoting PELLSPROG:
Things are nice and quiet my friends :)Let's hope it stays that way .


No. I want some action.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Maybe this will lighten the crowd around here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJEzl31zL-I


Hmm, first post I read today, guess I better go back a bit and figure out where that came from LOL!
Quoting StonedCrab:


Is THAT why my coffee is brown?



LOL!
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Fri 13 Aug 2010 12:45:01Z
The Models all have the AB high becoming an A only high past 168 hours. IF this happens( I used to have faith in the models about 25N but this year they have not been very accurate)
Anything that forms will go north just like the wave that started to develop at 50W two days ago.
It is now being sucked and sheared north the apex of the wave looks to be at 23N today where it was at 12N 2 days ago.
Look at todays GFS maps and the 160h forcast.
1721. FLdewey
East Coast Mega Tsunami!!
Quoting Patrap:
..Its Friday Im in love..


Me too! Great song!
1723. tkeith
Quoting FLdewey:
East Coast Mega Tsunami!!
You been watchin the History Channel again Dewey?
good morning, the only AOI i see this morning is N Panama/Col
1725. Patrap
Quoting NEwxguy:
Pat,did you have your Saints party last night?



Yeah,,me the wife some Jambalaya and Dixie.

Was good game,,save for special teams.
Nothing Like the return of Gametime.

Next week the Dome will be full as a tick.

ECMWF 192 hours out.
Quoting sailingallover:
The Models all have the AB high becoming an A only high past 168 hours. IF this happens( I used to have faith in the models about 25N but this year they have not been very accurate)
Anything that forms will go north just like the wave that started to develop at 50W two days ago.
It is now being sucked and sheared north the apex of the wave looks to be at 23N today where it was at 12N 2 days ago.
Look at todays GFS maps and the 160h forcast.
link please. and you are correct
1728. MahFL
New feeder band on the SE side now of ex TD5.
1729. FLdewey
Quoting tkeith:
You been watchin the History Channel again Dewey?

Mebe.

Discovery should change their slogan to "enlightened and frightened."
12Z update

AL 05 2010081312 BEST 0 307N 888W 25 1008 LO


BAMs no longer showing movement back to GOM, have to see if it stays consistent.


Some relief supplies are being sent to IA.

How are the folks in New Orleans, southern LA?

Quoting MahFL:
StormW, please re-asssure us all the tropics will explode soon.....thanks.
No!,StormW, Please don't!
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


oh I hear ya, 3 am big time boomers almost rolled me out of bed, and it poured rained. Local met said Biloxi got 2 inches while Pascagoula is almost at 4 inches. Funny, Tommy Richards said the former TD5 will curve around to Mobile....hummmmmmm

does anyone have any models to support this?


It's not being modeled anymore but it's pouring and thundering here in West Mobile now. Hopefully ya'll are drying out a little now.
1734. FLdewey
Could watching the tropics save you 15% or more on your car insurance?

Did the little piggy cry wee wee wee all the way home?

Check it out jackwagon

Sorry, it is being modeled, but it's a jumbled mess and probably meaningless.
We just went at least 3 mins with no posts? Wow
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
We just went at least 3 mins with no posts? Wow

UNPOSSIBLE!
Mobile Radar

Link
Has it been SIX years already since Charley made landfall? Unbelievable... I can still remember sitting in the EOC waiting for the hit here in Clearwater.

Here's a video we did in our office about the storm's aftermath...



Good morning tropic buddies! Hope all is well with everyone. Just got done serving breakfast to some very needy people here in Haiti. Breaks my heart at times. Some people just don't know how good they got it until you see hungry women and children pleading for more. Hope the storms stay away from here. That's the last thing these people need.
1741. Thaale
Quoting StormW:
EXPLANATION OF THE RELATION OF THE NAO and STORM RECURVATURE

Thanks again for the article, StormW. I just posted a comment with an implicit question in it about your post on your blog, as after I had initially your post the opther day I heard Jeff Masters answer a question about the NAO and steering on his radio show and his answer was somewhat different.
1742. hydrus
Quoting mrsalagranny:
I remember Fredrick in 1979 when it pulled the water from Mobile Bay.
I saw footage of Frederick burying a huge piece of plywood into a Buick. It is a good thing nobody was in it, they never would have made it. It was ugly.
1743. IKE
MJO charts...updated today....




and.....



Quoting IKE:
MJO charts...updated today....




and.....





Trust the 15 day but not the 40.
Quoting DestinJeff:


The tropics are about to implode!

I just wish there were some chart or graph that could help me understand just when that might happen...
Sorry for the delay, folks. I had a matter to deal with that took longer than expected...

If you want to participate in the poll, you can go to my blog and post your response. I'm going to be in and out today, so it'll be a lot easier for me to collate all the responses that way. I put guidelines below, and I've repeated them in my blog post. I'd be grateful if someone would cut and paste this to the new blog, which will likely come out while I'm in a meeting this a.m.

--------------------------------

Legends of the Wunderground nominees in cronological order

1. Katrina 2005 "StormTop said it would hit NOLA"
2. Rita 2005 "I tried to evacuate"
3. Wilma 2005 "the definitive pinhole eye"
4. Chris 2006 "Sheared again%u2026 Naturally"
5. Ernesto 2006 "yes it is; no it's not"
6. Dean 2007 "is that cat 5 landfall????"
7. Felix 2007 "graupel in the guts"
8. Humberto 2007? "Talk about explosive cyclogenesis"
9. Karen 2007 "never say die"
10. Dolly 2008 "no closed low"
11. Fay 2008 "Florida vacation"
12. Gustav 2008 "I can fake u out"
13. Ike 2008 aka "Ike Jr."; "Beeline for South Florida! ... NOT"
14. Portlight 2008 formation "We are the Blog"
15. Marco 2008 "World's Smallest 'cane or Largest Tornado"

Now we are ready to vote on the top five legends of the blog. The main requirement is that each event has to have entered the "history" or collective memory of the blog as a notable event. This is beyond simply the fact that a storm was notable for breaking a record or causing a lot of damage.

List your top FIVE picks in order from most legendary to least. If you wish, you can add a comment that explains why you feel your top pick is the most legendary blog event.

The poll will close at midnight EDT [0400 UTC] and I will post results tomorrow morning.

Have fun!




Quoting LoneStarWeather:

I just wish there were some chart or graph that could help me understand just when that might happen...


You and me both lonestar.
Good Morning. After reading Dr.M's Blog yesterday and some of the discussion, I don't know that anyone, including the Pros, quite know what exactly will happen this year in the Atlantic Basin.....I think that many assumed that record heat in May/June/July would automatically translate into a flurry of activity in the E-Pac, then shifting into the Atlantic, but it has not happend as of yet and lots of potential "unknowns" out there at the moment. The heat content is certainly still there and the next 6 weeks are the most active historically so I would certainly expect a cluster of storms coming sometime in September but you never know.
1750. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:


The tropics are about to implode!
Interesting feature on the GEM down in the S.W.Caribbean. A few of the models have been picking up on it......Link Maybe more toward the Central Caribbean.
Howdy all...GREAT second half last night
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

PATTERN CHANGE UNDERWAY WILL PRODUCE WETTER THAN AVERAGE
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE SRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EWD TO THE EAST COAST. MONSOONAL ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MEXICAN SIERRA AND THE SOUTHWEST. THE GULF COAST
REGION FROM LA TO FLORIDA IS LIKELY TO SEE A PROLONGED DAILY
THREAT OF HVY CONVECTION FROM THEH MID LEVEL REMAINS OF A FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE STANDARDIZED VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES ARE SHOWING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE ERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
All is quiet in the tropical Atlantic except there is enough dust coming off Africa to choke a horse. Good day everyone.
Quoting gordydunnot:
All is quiet in the tropical Atlantic except there is enough dust coming off Africa to choke a horse. Good day everyone.


Yes, but only if that horse is above 20 latitude
Quoting DestinJeff:


Posting The Chart is against Community Standards...



I am such a rebel!

You rock, DJ!!
1757. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:


Posting The Chart is against Community Standards...



I am such a rebel!
And of course the NOGAPS model has a tropical cyclone striking Nicaragua for the eleventh time...Link
1758. FLdewey
Community Standards? Don't they make toilets?
Quoting gordydunnot:
All is quiet in the tropical Atlantic except there is enough dust coming off Africa to choke a horse. Good day everyone.


90% of the Atlantic is dust free
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sorry for the delay, folks. I had a matter to deal with that took longer than expected...

If you want to participate in the poll, you can go to my blog and post your response. I'm going to be in and out today, so it'll be a lot easier for me to collate all the responses that way. I put guidelines below, and I've repeated them in my blog post. I'd be grateful if someone would cut and paste this to the new blog, which will likely come out while I'm in a meeting this a.m.

--------------------------------

Legends of the Wunderground nominees in cronological order

1. Katrina 2005 "StormTop said it would hit NOLA"
2. Rita 2005 "I tried to evacuate"
3. Wilma 2005 "the definitive pinhole eye"
4. Chris 2006 "Sheared again%u2026 Naturally"
5. Ernesto 2006 "yes it is; no it's not"
6. Dean 2007 "is that cat 5 landfall????"
7. Felix 2007 "graupel in the guts"
8. Humberto 2007? "Talk about explosive cyclogenesis"
9. Karen 2007 "never say die"
10. Dolly 2008 "no closed low"
11. Fay 2008 "Florida vacation"
12. Gustav 2008 "I can fake u out"
13. Ike 2008 aka "Ike Jr."; "Beeline for South Florida! ... NOT"
14. Portlight 2008 formation "We are the Blog"
15. Marco 2008 "World's Smallest 'cane or Largest Tornado"

Now we are ready to vote on the top five legends of the blog. The main requirement is that each event has to have entered the "history" or collective memory of the blog as a notable event. This is beyond simply the fact that a storm was notable for breaking a record or causing a lot of damage.

List your top FIVE picks in order from most legendary to least. If you wish, you can add a comment that explains why you feel your top pick is the most legendary blog event.

The poll will close at midnight EDT [0400 UTC] and I will post results tomorrow morning.

Have fun!






1. Katrina 2005
2. Wilma 2005
3. Portlight 2008
4. Fay 2008 (aka The Joker)
5. Ernesto 2006
Models certainly hinting at central/eastern tropical atl development in the coming days. Looks like a weakness is progged around 60-70w were it may have a shot at turning out to sea.
Quoting hydrus:
And of course the NOGAPS model has a tropical cyclone striking Nicaragua for the eleventh time...Link


That is what low MSLP can do to a model.
Quoting hurricane23:
Models certainly hinting at central/eastern tropical atl development in the coming days. Looks like a weakness is progged around 60-70w were it may have a shot at turning out to sea.


It might, but it is 10 days out or so. You never know.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. After reading Dr.M's Blog yesterday and some of the discussion, I don't know that anyone, including the Pros, quite know what exactly will happen this year in the Atlantic Basin.....I think that many assumed that record heat in May/June/July would automatically translate into a flurry of activity in the E-Pac, then shifting into the Atlantic, but it has not happend as of yet and lots of potential "unknowns" out there at the moment. The heat content is certainly still there and the next 6 weeks are the most active historically so I would certainly expect a cluster of storms coming sometime in September but you never know.


I think you have to be careful not to confuse scientific synopsis and climatology with what I would call absolute God like omniscience.

These Mets are really well trained and carry a list of creditials but they are making synopsis based on scientific data- facts...most of the time they are very close if not spot accurate. Sometimes they miss a little. All in all, they are trained and they are commited to helping us understand.

Lets not forget that they also have families, bills, other personal issues so they clock in and out just like us with simular pressures, yet the are commited to being a professional in their field.
1766. hydrus
Quoting DestinJeff:


Posting The Chart is against Community Standards...



I am such a rebel!
Here ya go...Check out NOLA on the GFS, it looks like they get a hurricane directly out of the east...Link
A record high minimum temperature was observed yesterday morning
at Houston Intercontinental Airport. This reading tied the record
set for the month of August...and is only one degree shy of the
all-time high minimum temperature record for Houston.



They are projecting heat indexes of over 110 here this weekend.
DJ, I'm sure you'll be reported, after all there needs to be some standard in this well refined community.
1770. hydrus
Quoting BenBIogger:


That is what low MSLP can do to a model.
It does seem to have a thing for Nicaragua.:)
05L model runs

lotta MJO over Africa these days. More rain, more waves.

Pretty favorable pattern in place were it will be pretty diffcult for CV wave to threaten the US.
The wave in the corner of this image is the wave that the models are developing.

1776. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:
lotta MJO over Africa these days. More rain, more waves.

Check out the strength of the low that moves off of Africa in a few days. It looks like a tropical storm before it hits the water.Link
Interesting system drifting ESE toward Bermuda.
1778. Drakoen
ECMWF 00z a little more aggressive on the GOM low:

.
Good Morning all, Is the rain and thunderstorms here in Mobile come from the remnants of TD5? Just was wondering. It looks like on radar a little bity spin, I know it can't do much but at least where getting some rain and some cooler temps.
Sheri
Thanks StormW. Great synopsis and I will be listeng to you as the season ramps up. I live on the southeast coast in the beautiful "lowcountry" of SC. I remember vividly Hugo from 1989 and am now getting prepared.
Quoting hydrus:
Check out the strength of the low that moves off of Africa in a few days. It looks like a tropical storm before it hits the water.Link


I know. Models are starting to pick up now on Cape Verde development. GFS and the ECMWF, our two most reliable are showing it.
Quoting StormW:


???


Storm at this point the GFS has been back and forth showing a pretty substantial trough in the Western atl. Just some long range speculation. I've been on high the past couple days found out after a very long road that wifey is 5 weeks pregnant hope your doing ok.
Quoting Drakoen:
ECMWF 00z a little more aggressive on the GOM low:



0z UKMET
96hrs
Thats for the Synopsis Storm!
Mornin' Storm, Pat, Ike, P-Doug, KotG, Drak

Mornin' WU.

Mornin' quiet Atlantic......or should that read......

Mornin' quiet BEFORE THE STORM(S) Atlantic?

Quoting hurricane23:


Storm at this point the GFS has been back and forth showing a pretty substantial trough in the Western atl. Just some long range speculation. I've been on high the past couple days found out after a very long road that wifey is 5 weeks pregnant hope your doing ok.


H23, good morning, and congratulations. I hope you have a good day.
sheri
This was posted by somebody else last night, but I'm going to have to re-post this:



In the past three weeks, SSTs just north of the Kuroshio Current have warmed in excess of 4C. This vast zone of warm anomalies is tracking east and threatens to cut off the California Current, reducing the cold PDO. A similar phenomenon occurred off Chile in February, where the southeastern tongue of the Central Pacific El Nino Modoki threatened to cut off the Humboldt Current.

Current SST anomalies, where warm anomalies have reached the coast at the Queen Charlotte Islands:

1792. Patrap
Morning Kimberly
Quoting BenBIogger:


0z UKMET
96hrs


A Hudson Low? In August?!
1794. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:
Pretty favorable pattern in place were it will be pretty diffcult for CV wave to threaten the US.


I think that is reasonable. The ensembles have the NAO heading positive after the 16th which would tend to favor recurvature.
Even the FIMZ develops it.
0z FIMZ
102hrs
1796. IKE
Quoting KimberlyB:
Mornin' Storm, Pat, Ike, P-Doug, KotG, Drak

Mornin' WU.

Mornin' quiet Atlantic......or should that read......

Mornin' quiet BEFORE THE STORM(S) Atlantic?



Good morning.

COC of former TD5 is just west of Mobile,AL...moving further inland now....

but still its 10+ days patterns change
Quoting Drakoen:


I think that is reasonable. The ensembles have the NAO heading positive after the 16th which would tend to favor recurvature.


Same thinking on recurvature from the PREDICT Ensemble Discussion
Quoting hurricane23:


Storm at this point the GFS has been back and forth showing a pretty substantial trough in the Western atl. Just some long range speculation. I've been on high the past couple days found out after a very long road that wifey is 5 weeks pregnant hope your doing ok.


CONGRATS! :)
Quoting DestinJeff:


Posting The Chart is against Community Standards...



I am such a rebel!


Looking at that chart and people saying that the season is over is like saying they made it up to the summit of Mt Everest and all they did was climb a few small "hills" in Fl!
Quoting dsenecal2009:
A record high minimum temperature was observed yesterday morning
at Houston Intercontinental Airport. This reading tied the record
set for the month of August...and is only one degree shy of the
all-time high minimum temperature record for Houston.



They are projecting heat indexes of over 110 here this weekend.

Suddenly, I'm VERY happy I spent the money on a more energy efficient house, and an oversized AC unit...
Quoting IKE:


Good morning.

COC of former TD5 is just west of Mobile,AL...moving further inland now....



Ike, thank you. It's weird u look outside and it looks like your in a dome.
Sheri
Not getting caught up in the two week forecasts--at this point the forecasts have not been that great for 48hours, much less two weeks. In fact, lets see how the season shapes up and then re-evaluate the value of the very long range forecasts.....
1805. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Same thinking on recurvature from the PREDICT Ensemble Discussion


Thanks for posting that...The system is predicted to gain
significant latitude as it moves downstream, typically
approaching 20N by the time it has reached 40-50W.
Quoting hurricane23:


I've been on high the past couple days found out after a very long road that wifey is 5 weeks pregnant hope your doing ok.

CONGRATS!!!
Quoting StormW:


The GFS however has always had a northern bias...and doesn't look as if the tweak fixed it. The steering forecast at 144 indicates if a recurvature were to take place, it would be almost at 70-75W. Steering east of there, up until that time, strong push to the WSW...so with the other factors in the steering layers, most likely a hefty push west at a low latitude, until it gets close to 65-70W.

CONGRATULATIONS Man! Very happy for you guy's!!


Thanks SW appreciate that.
1808. IKE
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Ike, thank you. It's weird u look outside and it looks like your in a dome.
Sheri


It's raining here in the Florida panhandle...thunderstorm now and 78.1 outside. I'm east of the low...looks like a washout off and on type day here.
1809. Patrap
1810. IKE
Congratulations to you 23...is this your first child?
Ok, StormW says negative NAO comming and Drakoen says positive. The question is which will be right? I guess time will tell.
1812. Drakoen
Looks like the wave to develop is just west of 10E. The models show the wave increasing in vorticity as it advects westward towards the Western African coast. A strong high amplitude wave near 10W will be moving to the the northwest and act as the forerunner to clear the SAL and increase the instability in the Eastern Atlantic.



Anyone curious that 94L/5D is forecast to circle the Gulf? I find that very interesting.....
Quoting Patrap:


Pouring here in Mid-City again......
1815. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Same thinking on recurvature from the PREDICT Ensemble Discussion


Nice discussion
Quoting Patrap:


Yeah it's pretty much stuck not going anywhere. Kind of annoying. Sunny and hot here in the Panhandle and then a Tropical downpour and cool down and then Sunny and hot again and then Tropical downpour over and over and over....
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Ike, thank you. It's weird u look outside and it looks like your in a dome.
Sheri

Still bone dry down here in Mobile and my grass is almost dead and this doesn't look good :(
Thanks to everyone...Its been a very long road from me a my wife and to finally get that positive blood test was a feeling i cant express. Me and the wife have been preparing for this for a while now financially etc. It takes a lot to be a good parent and iam willing to give 100 percent of myself towards being the best parent i can possibly be.

Thanks again
0z ECMWF
240hrs
Quoting Drakoen:


Nice discussion


Will be nice to see the matrix on the Daily Reports fill in.
And it doesn't look like it's going anywhere fast! Excerpt from Drakoen's post.

As an aside, a majority of NCEP ensemble members also slowly bring ex-TD#5 back to the northern Gulf Coast with a closed circulation, lingering between Days 3-7 (Mon-Thu).
After a long period of uncertainty the cape verde season is about to begin. most of the global models are latching on to some form of development in the eastern atlantic as early as tuesday of next week. this reminds me of DEAN in. 2007 when the GFS was predicting cyclogenesis for two weeks. it is kind of early to predict track and intensity, but judging from the environment condtion ahrad of this models' predicted system, i expect a significant disturbance which according to the long range steering current to track west for a long time
1825. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:
Thanks to everyone...Its been a very long road from me a my wife and to finally get that positive blood test was a feeling i cant express. Me and the wife have been preparing for this for a while now financially etc. It takes a lot to be a good parent and iam willing to give 100 percent of myself towards being the best parent i can possibly be.

Thanks again


Good Luck!
Quoting StormW:


Nice one, Drak!
some SAL right now
Quoting hurricane23:
Thanks to everyone...It been a very long road from me a my wife and to finally get that positive blood test was a feeling i cant express. Me and the wife have been preparing for this for a while now financially etc. It takes a lot to be a good parent and iam willing to give 100 percent of myself towards being the best parent i can possibly be.

Thanks again


Congratulations Hurricane23 I am very happy for you!
Quoting Drakoen:


Good Luck!


Thanks drak appreciate the comment. She's due april 15.
Quoting hurricane23:
Thanks to everyone...Its been a very long road from me a my wife and to finally get that positive blood test was a feeling i cant express. Me and the wife have been preparing for this for a while now financially etc. It takes a lot to be a good parent and iam willing to give 100 percent of myself towards being the best parent i can possibly be.

Thanks again


I pray for blesssing over you and your family. Press on my friend.
Quoting DestinJeff:


Posting The Chart is against Community Standards...



I am such a rebel!
Post away dude...isnt bothering me AT ALL!
Quoting hurricane23:
Thanks to everyone...Its been a very long road from me a my wife and to finally get that positive blood test was a feeling i cant express. Me and the wife have been preparing for this for a while now financially etc. It takes a lot to be a good parent and iam willing to give 100 percent of myself towards being the best parent i can possibly be.

Thanks again


Congrats, hope the two of you are doing good.
Congrats 23! :-) good luck!
1833. tramp96
Quoting hurricane23:
Thanks to everyone...Its been a very long road from me a my wife and to finally get that positive blood test was a feeling i cant express. Me and the wife have been preparing for this for a while now financially etc. It takes a lot to be a good parent and iam willing to give 100 percent of myself towards being the best parent i can possibly be.

Thanks again

You can never go wrong with lots of love. My little boy just turned nine and I still give him tonnes of kisses and he eats it up.
I have a two word forecast for those living on coastal waters for this hurricane season. Its pretty reasonable considering all the distractions plus its a brief downtime in the tropics...

here it is...are you ready?

BE PREPARED.

We can look at future forecast all day and blog on them but if you wait till the storm of all storms for this year is barelling down your throat, then its lost time if your not prepared.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
925 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
WEST CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 919 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAIN FROM A THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOVELLA...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LUCEDALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. RADAR INDICATED TOTALS OF UP
TO 3 INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT AREAS OF MOBILE COUNTY.

* THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NEAR...
TANNER WILLIAMS BY 1020 AM CDT...
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOFFET BY 1050 AM CDT...
BIG CREEK LAKE BY 1055 AM CDT...
WILMER BY 1105 AM CDT...
1836. MahFL
Quoting stoormfury:
After a long period of uncertainty the cape verde season is about to begin. most of the global models are latching on to some form of development in the eastern atlantic as early as tuesday of next week. this reminds me of DEAN in. 2007 when the GFS was predicting cyclogenesis for two weeks. it is kind of early to predict track and intensity, but judging from the environment condtion ahrad of this models' predicted system, i expect a significant disturbance which according to the long range steering current to track west for a long time


But then recurve harmlessly north ?
Quoting hurricane23:
Thanks to everyone...Its been a very long road from me a my wife and to finally get that positive blood test was a feeling i cant express. Me and the wife have been preparing for this for a while now financially etc. It takes a lot to be a good parent and iam willing to give 100 percent of myself towards being the best parent i can possibly be.

Thanks again


Congrats! Kids are awesome!
1838. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:


Thanks drak appreciate the comment. She's due april 15.


Good to hear.

Btw, did you finish getting your degree from FSU?
1839. IKE
NAM puts TD 5 right over this area in 60 hours...




Quoting hurricane23:


Storm at this point the GFS has been back and forth showing a pretty substantial trough in the Western atl. Just some long range speculation. I've been on high the past couple days found out after a very long road that wifey is 5 weeks pregnant hope your doing ok.


Congrats, man!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Congratulations Hurricane23 I am very happy for you!


Hey Jeff! Iam really excited but at the same time iam also very nervous and been having alot of anxiety. I think its pretty normal especially for a first time parent. Negative experiences in life along with my parents very difficult divorce has only made me a better person.

Thanks again to everyone for the kind comments.
Quoting Patrap:




Link

The Saints defense abused New England's pass protection in practice. In one-on-one drills, it seemed like the Saints rushers were consistently getting by New England's pass blockers. New England coaches at one point even yelled at their players demanding that they stop holding.

We likely won't see much of Aaron Hernandez in pass protection, as he was abused by Will Smith and gave up a strip sack on Tom Brady in practice.

New England's aerial attack is essential to their success on offense, and Brady is the engine that keeps the Flying Elvises flying.


Lucky for Him Cool Whip Jason
Stick to the weather! Not "whether" or not TB will play.
I have not seen the GFS so consistent with a track and cape verde tropical formation since hurricane dean in 2007. The formation aspect was correct but the track was consistently a recurvature/ eastern seaboard hit. and we all now dean eventually went into the carib. and beliz/mexico.

I believe cyclogenesis with this future feature is a good bet but way too far out to speculate on track.

We are currently moving into a neutra and eventually negative nao and this could be causing the problems with the gfs handling of this feature. I personally favor a track more west than the gfs due to the shift in NAO
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
I have a two word forecast for those living on coastal waters for this hurricane season. Its pretty reasonable considering all the distractions plus its a brief downtime in the tropics...

here it is...are you ready?

BE PREPARED.

We can look at future forecast all day and blog on them but if you wait till the storm of all storms for this year is barelling down your throat, then its lost time if your not prepared.


And the choir says - AMEN!!

Personally I'm hoping that our wonderful friends to the south (Outer Banks) continue to shield SE VA from the worst of any MidLant stuff. However, the prep is done, and I just replenished the batteries (AGAIN).

And for those who don't particularly care for potted meats - look at it this way - at the end of the season you can put them in your local food drive!
1845. SQUAWK
Quoting hurricane23:
Thanks to everyone...Its been a very long road from me a my wife and to finally get that positive blood test was a feeling i cant express. Me and the wife have been preparing for this for a while now financially etc. It takes a lot to be a good parent and iam willing to give 100 percent of myself towards being the best parent i can possibly be.

Thanks again


Hey there "killer," good to see you.
Quoting IKE:
NAM puts TD 5 right over this area in 60 hours...






Ike, do ya think it will make it back to the GOM? Gosh it's so much cooler this morning. I love it. I can actually breath. The heat has been horrible this summer, especially at the boat shop, our building is made of tin and no insulation, last couple of weeks it's been between 110-118 inside.
sheri
1848. Drakoen
The GEFS is further westward than the operational but opens up the possibilities with the deviation in the mid-Atlantic.

1849. IKE
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Ike, do ya think it will make it back to the GOM? Gosh it's so much cooler this morning. I love it. I can actually breath. The heat has been horrible this summer, especially at the boat shop, our building is made of tin and no insulation, last couple of weeks it's been between 110-118 inside.
sheri


I know it's been terribly hot. This is almost refreshing.

The models like the ECMWF...CMC...GFS and NOGAPS put it back in the GOM. I'm not sure it makes it to a TS, but maybe it could.
Quoting IKE:
NAM puts TD 5 right over this area in 60 hours....>


Yeah it looks like will be in a wet pattern for several days! I guess it beats the heat we've been having, should help on the electric bill and give the A/C a bit of a reprieve!
Quoting MiamiThrice:
I have not seen the GFS so consistent with a track and cape verde tropical formation since hurricane dean in 2007. The formation aspect was correct but the track was consistently a recurvature/ eastern seaboard hit. and we all now dean eventually went into the carib. and beliz/mexico.

I believe cyclogenesis with this future feature is a good bet but way too far out to speculate on track.

We are currently moving into a neutra and eventually negative nao and this could be causing the problems with the gfs handling of this feature. I personally favor a track more west than the gfs due to the shift in NAO



There is potential for a more northern track if a weakness develops. The last time I have seen the GFS this consistent was with hurricane Bertha looks like the Atlantic might be about ready to produce a big one.
1852. IKE
GFS has had it as a fish-storm the last 3 runs. I've seen it do systems before like that and then switch to a more western track. Then again it may hold on as a true fish storm.
Quoting maxbyte:
Perhaps the slow start to the hurricane season is one of the benefits of climate change, eh? May it go out the same door it came in.

Of course, it is much too early to get giddy about it. The sky could fall on us a week from now and stay that way through October.

Has anyone checked the NH temperature differential between land and SST, historically? If that info is available I'd love to see it.
Correct me if I am wrong, but does that really have anything to do with it? I thought the temp diff between top most cloud formations and SST would be more informative.
1855. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


Drak,
Do you have a link for that? Some nice stuff there.

TIA!

Link
Quoting Drakoen:


Good to hear.

Btw, did you finish getting your degree from FSU?


actually drake iam almost done with my BS in meteorology and applied mathematics from the university of miami down here in coral gables. Current minors are psychology,geography and regional studies. Thanks for asking
Dang blog ate my post.....LOL....Nearly every single model as exTD5 looping back into the GOM near the Panhandle and most redevelop it into a nice storm......wonder if it will get a name this time and will it be TD6!
GFS still has a northern bias, the storm may make it to Bermuda. It'll be interesting next week, our first real Cape Verde Storm.
Quoting Waltanater:
Correct me if I am wrong, but does that really have anything to do with it? I thought the temp diff between top most cloud formations and SST would be more informative.


Read the research...the majority say fewer but more intense storms. It may very well have everything to do with it...
Quoting StormW:


Well, if you look at the graph, Drak is correct in his statement regarding the 16th, and it appears to be slight positive. If you look close though, the ensemble is split, so basically it would tend to neutral. Also, notice the values on the charts...the corrected obs aren't that strong into the positive.



If you also look at the surface maps, the A/B high is forecast to be around 1022-1020mb in about 144 hours, indicative of a more negative NAO



3 years with values close to what the graph is showing, and close as far as NAO trend, is these 3 years:







Thanks W for that complete explanation with the graphics.
1862. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:


actually drake iam almost done with my BS in meteorology and applied mathematics from the university of miami down here in coral gables. Current minors are psychology,geography and regional studies. Thanks for asking


Oh you double majored? I was thinking about do that as well.
1864. divdog
Quoting 69Viking:


Yeah it's pretty much stuck not going anywhere. Kind of annoying. Sunny and hot here in the Panhandle and then a Tropical downpour and cool down and then Sunny and hot again and then Tropical downpour over and over and over....
better than hot and no downpours
6 years ago today Hurricane Charley, the infamous Friday the 13th Cat 4 buzzsaw came roaring through Southwest Florida.
The Wrath and Aftermath of Charley
1867. Drakoen
NAM 12z


Well, from what we have observed this hurricane season, it seems that global warming plays a diferent set of meteorological equations, where established prediction models have a larger margin of error...Well, that's what we have observed with some of the Invests predictions this year...
1869. snotly
Quoting Drakoen:

Link


Looks like another low forming in the NW. Caribbean
1870. hydrus
Quoting hurricanejunky:
6 years ago today Hurricane Charley, the infamous Friday the 13th Cat 4 buzzsaw came roaring through Southwest Florida.
The Wrath and Aftermath of Charley
Does not seem like 6 years already.
6 Years ago at 8:30pm I was bracing for the eye of Charley in Orlando. Most trees in my neighborhood were knocked down, roofs torn off, and cars blown down my apartment complex near UCF. It was strange becuase once the eye moved overhead the sky had a weird glow to it in the night and then the other side came. That was the first time I ever experienced the roar of 100 plus mph winds.
Quoting StormW:


Dang Adrian! Don't you have a headache at the end of class with all that?


Just doing everthing i can SW to improve my current situation especially now more than ever with a new family on the way.
1873. angiest
Quoting TampaSpin:
Dang blog ate my post.....LOL....Nearly every single model as exTD5 looping back into the GOM near the Panhandle and most redevelop it into a nice storm......wonder if it will get a name this time and will it be TD6!


If it is identifiable as the same system then it remains TD5.
NEW BLOG
1876. IKE
Imagine the arguments on here... that would have ensued over Charley's track? I remember following it on visible and radar on this website and then the anemometer at Ponte Gorde went.....out.....

He wasn't that big, but he had a punch.
Quoting hurricane23:


actually drake iam almost done with my BS in meteorology and applied mathematics from the university of miami down here in coral gables. Current minors are psychology,geography and regional studies. Thanks for asking


Wow, two degrees from big rival schools. How is it down at UM, I might go there after my freshman year?
Quoting hurricane23:


Just doing everthing i can SW to improve my current situation especially now more than ever with a new family on the way.

Well hello killer. Hogozit?
Last time I was on Lefty and stormtop were here.Went through Ivan,Dennis and part of Katrina. Moved to Mo. then here and got Ike 6 weeks later,my kids want me out of the area. LOL.....StormW is right...season will start soon...be prepared.
Quoting Jeff9641:
6 Years ago at 8:30pm I was bracing for the eye of Charley in Orlando. Most trees in my neighborhood were knocked down, roofs torn off, and cars blown down my apartment complex near UCF. It was strange becuase once the eye moved overhead the sky had a weird glow to it in the night and then the other side came. That was the first time I ever experienced the roar of 100 plus mph winds.


Charley was hauling butt so there wasn't much time for it to wind down as it passed over. It was just a huge F3 tornado barreling across the state! I work with local county government so I had to go out to Fort Myers Beach immediately after to deliver some laptops with aircards so permitting could get people started on rebuilds and repairs right away and I remember my car slipping and sliding around on the sand still on the streets. There was still 6 inches or more of sand in the streets, some mixed with sewage, and that was after they'd cleared it with dozers...PEEEYEEEWWWW!!!...UGH!
new blog
I'm sure this has been asked and answered, but does anybody know why ex-95L is so *persistent*?
I know why GFS has this system going so far north and not far west it's because GFS start the low level invest too far north starts it off near 18/19N I think it will start at like near 10/11N
Quoting MoltenIce:
Will this year be like 1977?
Who cares!
Quoting ElConando:


There was a rumor of that? People spreading rumors that 2,000 people died or something?
Yeah, the casualties were higher but not reported. I think it had something to do with the homeless.
Quoting Krycek1984:
What's all this talk about football...I thought football season doesn't start for a long time?
Take it to the football blog! This is a weather blog.
Please corrcet me if I'm wrong. Positive NAO would mean that CV hurricanes would tend to keep a more westerly track, increasing the chances for East Coast, FL landfall, and perhaps Gulf Coast. Negative NAO would mean a tendency for CV Hurricanes to recurve to the north (fish storms). So I must conclude that a negative NAO would make hurricanes forming in the GOMEX a bigger threat to the central Gulf Coast and perhaps the west coast of Florida right? As far as Hurricane formation and intensity the NAO has no influence, it onluy affects steering. Did I get this correct?
1888. P451
Good Afternoon. Here is where we stand.