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A record 199 days without a tornado death; 1st tornado of 2013 hits Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:10 PM GMT on January 10, 2013

The U.S. has set a weather record of the sort we like to see: the longest continuous stretch without a tornado death. We've had 199 days without a tornado fatality, beating the record of 197 straight days that ended on February 28, 1987. The last U.S. tornado death was at Venus in Highlands County, Florida, from an EF-0 tornado associated with Tropical Storm Debby on June 24, 2012. After a horrific 2011 that saw 553 Americans die in tornadoes--the 2nd highest total since 1950--the 2012 tornado season was not far from average for deaths, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. The 2012 tornado death toll was 68, ranking 25th highest since 1950. The average yearly toll between 1950 - 2011 was 91. According to SPC, the total number of tornadoes during 2012 was just 936. This is the first time since 2002 that fewer than 1000 tornadoes have been recorded. The reason for the low tornado total in 2012 was the massive drought that gripped much of Tornado Alley. It's tough to get tornadoes when you're experiencing near-record drought conditions and very few thunderstorms.


Figure 1. June 24, 2012: A tornado spawned by Tropical Storm Debbie crosses Lake Winterset in Winter Haven, Florida. Another tornado from Debbie on this day caused the last tornado death in the U.S., at Venus in Highlands County, Florida. Image credit: wunderphotographer whgator3.


Figure 2. The total number of U.S. tornadoes stronger than EF-0 from 1950 - 2012 does not show a significant long-term trend. However, this database is not very reliable, and we cannot use it to make judgements about how tornadoes may be changing in the long term. Data taken from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Since not all tornadoes from 2012 have been given an EF scale rating yet, the numbers from 2012 are estimated by assuming that the same proportion of EF-0 tornadoes that existed in 2011 also occurred in 2012.

First U.S. tornado of 2013 hits Louisiana
A powerful low pressure system centered over Texas that has dumped over 5" of rain over Southeast Texas and 10" over portions of Louisiana has generated the first U.S. tornado of 2013. The tornado touched down in Plaquemine, Louisiana at 8:35 am CST this morning, when a squall line of severe thunderstorms moved through. Light to moderate roof damage was reported at an industrial plant on Highway 405, about 80 miles west-northwest of New Orleans. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has portions of Southeast Louisiana, Southern Mississippi, and Southern Alabama in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather and tornadoes, so hopefully our record streak without a tornado death will not come to an end today.


Figure 3. Radar-estimated precipitation from the past three days from the Lake Charles radar. Over 10" of rain (dark pink colors) is estimated to have fallen over South Central Louisiana.

Earth's extreme weather: no big deal, compared to Venus
Our colleagues at TWC are airing a new series that starts tonight (Thursday) at 9pm EST/8pm CST, called "Deadliest Space Weather." We've put the trailer for tonight's episode on Venus up on the wunderground video section. As I highlighted in my book review of Dr. James Hansen's must-read book, Storms of My Grandchildren, Dr. Hansen argues that Earth's climate may eventually wind up like Venus', with a run-away greenhouse effect: "After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas, and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty." In tonight's episode of "Deadliest Space Weather", astronomers and planetary scientists will reveal why the climate of Venus went so horribly wrong, why a similar climate may one day descend on the Earth--and what will happen when it gets here.

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It is so amazing how much the weather can vary from year to year!

Thanks, Dr. Masters
Warning systems have greatly improved.
Tornado Warning for Central Lafourche Parish issued...

Nasty rotating cell with bowing segment moving rapidly across lower Terrebonne Parish headed into Lafourche...
Thanks Doc...
Quoting DFWdad:
It is so amazing how much the weather can vary from year to year!

Thanks, Dr. Masters

That's why I hate when weathermen/women refer to a high or low as "normal". Really, what's normal!!?? It's more like the "average" over a 30 year baseline or greater.
At least hurricanes have many benefits. There are several reasons why hurricanes are good for the ecosystem.

Tornadoes....well, I just can't find one. If anyone can, please share. LOL
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Tornado Warning for Central Lafourche Parish issued...

Nasty rotating cell moving rapidly across lower Terrebonne Parish headed into Lafourche...


Let us hope that we can continue to extend the record that this blog topic is based on. I would like to see the record double the previous record and then some.
so wat the latest news with the gfs is it showing cold air
I am very much glad that 2012 was so many less deaths than 2011. 2011 was such a shocking season. Goodnight all
Sip.

Ahhhhhhhh

Thanks Dr. Masters.

I disagree on the drought being the [main] cause of a lack of tornado activity in 2012, however. If this were the case, 2010 and 2011 would have both had a significantly less active year in the Plains. Instead, both were very active. 2011 had an EF5 in Missouri and 2010 had several EF4s across the central and northern Plains.

The main cause of a lack of tornado activity seems to be the position of the jet stream. It was very far north in 2012, up into Canada even.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
At least hurricanes have many benefits. There are several reasons why hurricanes are good for the ecosystem.

Tornadoes....well, I just can't find one. If anyone can, please share. LOL

Home redecoration and lawn cleaning.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks Dr. Masters.

I disagree on the drought being the cause of a lack of tornado activity in 2012, however. If this were the case, 2010 and 2011 would have both had a significantly less active year in the Plains. Instead, both were very active. 2011 had an EF5 in Missouri and 2010 had several EF4s across the central and northern Plains.

The main cause of a lack of tornado activity seems to be the position of the jet stream. It was very far north in 2012, up into Canada even.



Though I agree with that to some extent, ruling out drought conditions is questionable, at the very least. Tornado like mesocyclones need moisture to work with.
Umm , The GFS 12Z Atlantic run is rather hilarious at the moment....

Drama a system coming off the North Coast of the US turns into a Sub/tropical System ...LOL

GFS 12Z From Raleigh

It's there for everyone to see, you just need to be open to both sides of the research.

Link
Thanks doc, You think Venus being 28 million miles closer to the sun has anything to do with it's inhospitable climate?
Quoting overwash12:
Thanks doc, You think Venus being 28 million miles closer to the sun has anything to do with it's inhospitable climate?

If Venus is getting warmer, then it makes you wonder...

LOL
12Z GFS out to 72 hours.

Sip.

Ahhhhhhhh.

Quoting VR46L:
Umm , The GFS 12Z Atlantic run is rather hilarious at the moment....

Drama a system coming off the North Coast of the US turns into a Sub/tropical System ...LOL

GFS 12Z From Raleigh



00z ECMWF supports this solution. Shows a Subtropical Storm 'Andrea' at 96 hours.


We'll have to watch it assuming the models remain consistent.
Quoting VR46L:
Umm , The GFS 12Z Atlantic run is rather hilarious at the moment....

Drama a system coming off the North Coast of the US turns into a Sub/tropical System ...LOL

GFS 12Z From Raleigh



I am becoming less and less surprised about what the weather is bringing us these days. What I want to know, if that system actually forms, will it be a late 2012 season system or an early 2013 season system? ... This is becoming too confusing. Just as you start to understand the rules, the rules get changed. sigh
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am becoming less and less surprised about what the weather is bringing us these days. What I want to know, if that system actually forms, will it be a late 2012 season system or an early 2013 season system? ... This is becoming too confusing. Just as you start to understand the rules, the rules get changed. sigh

But you must remember we could of had a similar situation in 1929. We just didn't have the model support and satellite capabilities to observe it. And ships can't be everywhere at one time.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am becoming less and less surprised about what the weather is bringing us these days. What I want to know, if that system actually forms, will it be a late 2012 season system or an early 2013 season system? ... This is becoming too confusing. Just as you start to understand the rules, the rules get changed. sigh


It would count as the first named storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
When did we start naming Sub-tropical systems. How many times do we see winter-time storms take on an eye-like feature? My guess is ALOT!
Quoting overwash12:
When did we start naming Sub-tropical systems. How many times do we see winter-time storms take on an eye-like feature? My guess is ALOT!


That's a great question, overwash. I hope someone can chime in on that.

Quoting overwash12:
When did we start naming Sub-tropical systems. How many times do we see winter-time storms take on a eye-like feature? My guess is ALOT!


Subtropical systems were named starting in the 2002 Atlantic Hurricane season, but always counted towards seasonal counts, with names like Subtropical Storm Alpha, Charlie, Delta, etc.

Having an eye means little to nothing about a qualification of a subtropical storm. You just see eye like features in these systems more often than not because the winds and convection are often found miles away from the center, giving an 'eye' appearance. Storms like Subtropical Storm Otto in 2010, and Subtropical Storm Beryl in 2012 at the time of classification did not have an eye like feature.
re: #3
Tornado warning allowed to expire, replaced with Severe Thunderstorm Warning... Primary concern is with large bowing segment along the squall line, lifting NEWD over eastern lower parishes of SE LA.

Edit / Add - Needless to say, Flash Flood Warning for Houma-Thibodaux Metro continues across area, extended EWD... My gauge is near another 2" over past 1.5 hrs in addition to the 4.5-5.25" locally had already...
Quoting overwash12:
When did we start naming Sub-tropical systems. How many times do we see winter-time storms take on an eye-like feature? My guess is ALOT!

Subtropical storms were included in the naming process back in 2002. An eye-feature does not immediately mean the system is tropical or subtropical either. Non-tropical lows can develop eye-like features.
Quoting overwash12:
When did we start naming Sub-tropical systems.
Subtropical storms were originally not given names and were referred to as "Subtropical Storm One", "Subtropical Depression One" and so on. Then, subtropical storms were named from 1972 to 1973, when the NHC called them "Neutercanes" meaning a mixture of a tropical and an extratropical storm. During this time, they gave subtropical storms names from the Greek Alphabet. After 1973, The NHC went back to just calling them by numbers.

It was in 2002, when the NHC decided to give subtropical storms names from the same list as tropical storms. The first subtropical storm to take a name was Ana in April of 2003. Subtropical Depressions were given numbers in the same order as the rest of the tropical storms. For example, Subtropical Depression 22 in 2005 was the first subtropical system of the year, but instead of taking the number "Subtropical Depression One", it took the number from the sequence of the rest of the storms.


Hurricane Naming
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am becoming less and less surprised about what the weather is bringing us these days. What I want to know, if that system actually forms, will it be a late 2012 season system or an early 2013 season system? ... This is becoming too confusing. Just as you start to understand the rules, the rules get changed. sigh


Its not scientific fact but I have a theory about the fabled Bermuda Triangle ... unrecorded Hurricanes ..Its only a theory but it makes more sense than most ..
Quoting TomballTXPride:

If Venus is getting warmer, then it makes you wonder...

LOL


Well let's not forget Neptune. Pretty dang cold and those 1000+ MPH winds there can really screw up one's mullet.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Subtropical storms were included in the naming process back in 2002. An eye-feature does not immediately mean the system is tropical or subtropical either. Non-tropical lows can develop eye-like features.
I remember back in the mid 80's we had a huge storm off the Southeast coast in the fall,the local weather guy called it an Atlantic storm! LOL
This may have already been mentioned, but yet another Windy City (lack of) snowfall record was broken yesterday: Chicago reaches record 320 days without 1 inch of snow.
NHC... lol

...First tropical cyclone of the season forms in the open Atlantic Ocean...
Record Subtropical Stom Andrea forms in January?...



in the bottom...
Next advisory... to be issued at 5 AM AST.... What the hell is June 1st for now?
The earliest forming tropical cyclone on record for a particular hurricane season in the Atlantic occurred back in 1938; not only did it develop on January 3, but it reached a peak intensity of 80 mph/992 millibars. This is the system added in HRD's reanalysis.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The earliest forming tropical cyclone on record for a particular hurricane season in the Atlantic occurred back in 1938; not only did it develop on January 3, but it reached a peak intensity of 80 mph/992 millibars. This is the system added in HRD's reanalysis.



I look just like it's path (question mark)..didn't know about it Cody
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The earliest forming tropical cyclone on record for a particular hurricane season in the Atlantic occurred back in 1938; not only did it develop on January 3, but it reached a peak intensity of 80 mph/992 millibars. This is the system added in HRD's reanalysis.



Interestingly enough that was the same year of the Great New England Hurricane that hit NY square on. A cat 5 nasty. I'm guessing the Atlantic SST was running a little toasty that year.
Australia:


A better look at the rainfall totals yesterday...

Quoting calkevin77:


Interestingly enough that was the same year of the Great New England Hurricane that hit NY square on. A cat 5 nasty. I'm guessing the Atlantic SST was running a little toasty that year.


It was also said that it made landfall as a category 3 hurricane... right over NYC.

Im not so sure about the veracity of that data though...
"The reason for the low tornado total in 2012 was the massive drought that gripped much of Tornado Alley. It's tough to get tornadoes when you're experiencing near-record drought conditions and very few thunderstorms."

Drought monitor April 3, 2012


Drought monitor June 12, 2012


ADD:

image credit: NOAA, wikicommons
The comparison of Venus to Earth is tired and plain fear mongering regardless of your stance on human induced climate change.

Please consider -- the atmospheric pressure on Venus is 92 times that of Earth. You know those high pressure systems we see on Earth that can raise temperatures in an area on Earth 5-20 degrees with a mear 1-3% increase in atmospheric pressure? Imagine a high pressure system that raised atmospheric pressure by 9200%! This, along with the much higher solar irradiance received due to its close proximity to the sun, are the two main reasons Venus is so much warmer than the Earth.

In a distant third is the higher concentration of CO2 on Venus compared to Earth. The Venus atmosphere is almost entirely Carbon Dioxide -- 96.5%. By contrast, the CO2 concentration on Earth's atmosphere is 0.04%. Even if we burned everything we have, and had the worst feedbacks imaginable, we wouldn't get close. It would take an atmospheric increase of 241,250% to reach Venus's concentration of CO2. Hell, it would take a CO2 concentration 2500% the current amount to even make up 1% of the atmosphere. For reference, atmospheric CO2 has increased 20-25% since pre-industrial times.

So, regardless of your stance on AGW (I'm rather neutral on it -- I've read and understand both sides of the argument), this Venus = Earth argument is so easy to tear apart, I think it's embarassing to the AGW cause for those who continue to champion it.
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

..Rain and risk of freezing rain Friday...

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system from Texas is expected to track northeast
towards the Great Lakes tonight and Friday. This low will bring very
mild and fairly moist air into Southern Ontario.

Current indications suggest rain fall amounts of 10 to 20 mm are
likely on Friday for most regions in Southern Ontario. There is also
the potential of freezing rain for Eastern Ontario Friday, especially
along the Ottawa Valley including the National Capital Region.
Freezing rain warnings for parts of Eastern Ontario may be issued
later today or tonight as the event draws closer.

On Saturday very mild air ushered in by southerly winds will help
temperatures rise to 10 to 13 degrees in many areas. Temperatures in
a few locales may reach the mid teens especially in snow-free areas,
making it feel more like late April.

As a result of the very mild temperatures, a number of new maximum
temperature records may be set Friday and Saturday. Most if not all
of the snow on the ground across Southern Ontario and in Eastern
Ontario likely melt by Saturday.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End

Today

41°F

Fri

45°F
32°F

Sat

50°F
45°F
40%
Sun

37°F
37°F

Mon

34°F
21°F

Tue

30°F
23°F

Wed

32°F
25°F
30%
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The earliest forming tropical cyclone on record for a particular hurricane season in the Atlantic occurred back in 1938; not only did it develop on January 3, but it reached a peak intensity of 80 mph/992 millibars. This is the system added in HRD's reanalysis.



Well, looking at the path it took, it was certainly a questionable storm.
Thanks Dr. A powerful low indeed......Drawing in it's cloud circulation all the way out from the Florida Big Bend (my parts) at the moment. Pretty strong lower level vorticity associated with it as well but as noted earlier, not embedded within a jet (much further to the North) so hopefully any numerous damaging tornadoes will be minimal with the particular set-up for this frontal passage.

Link



NICE DAY TODAY GOOD JAN THAW DAY SNOW COVER IS ALL BUT GONE MELTING FAST
May have spoken too soon.......Another tornado warning just popped up in Louisiana (the second possible tornado if confirmed of 2013).
Not to mention, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures have been much higher in the distant past, and no runaway feedbacks which permanently altered Earth's climate occured...
Quoting trumpman84:
Not to mention, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures have been much higher in the distant past, and no runaway feedbacks which permanently altered Earth's climate occured...
THATS NOT TOTALLY CORRECT THERE HAVE BEEN MANY CLIMATE EVENTS OVER THE LAST 3.5 MILLION YEARS SOME EVEN VERY RAPID

CHANGES OCCUR FASTER THEN EVER SEEN BY MAN IN THE MATTER OF WEEKS ANIMALS HAVE BEEN FOUND INCASED IN ICE WITH FOOD IN THERE GUT AND UNCHEWED IN THERE MOUNTHS LIKE AS IF AN INSTANCE SHIFT OCCURRED FROM A MILD PERIOD TO A VERY DEEP DEEP FREEZE MAYBE EVEN A FLASH FREEZE EVENT
Quoting trumpman84:
Not to mention, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures have been much higher in the distant past, and no runaway feedbacks which permanently altered Earth's climate occured...


I would think that the only thing that would permanently alter Earth's climate is when our sun supernovas. There ain't no coming back from that!
Lost the last of our shaded snow yesterday Keep - see you guys have freezing rain chance too, probably a little more common there in Mid Jan. than in Duluth. I'm still having trouble with that! 41 and drizziling in S C IL.
Are people aware how bad the radar estimates are for rainfall totals in SELA?

We got 4.5 inches of rain in our gauge in one day out of this system and it's been raining since Tuesday, and the radar still has us as under 4 inches for the total since Tuesday. It seems like it's rained two or three times as much as the radar total says.

This is between Ponchatoula and Springfield in Tangipahoa Parish and Livingston Parish border.
redundant


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...SRN MS AND SW AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 2...

VALID 101735Z - 101900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 2 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SRN MS AND SW AL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED TO
THE EAST OF WW 2 WITH THE PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE AT 40 PERCENT.

DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
SOUTH OF JACKSON MS TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE SERN
SIDE OF A SRN PLAINS UPPER-LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH LIFT FROM
A WELL-DEVELOPED 50 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ANALYZED JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE QLCS EWD ACROSS
SRN MS INTO SW AL THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE IS VERY WEAK AT THIS TIME WITH MLCAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG...SOME DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AS SFC
TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 70S F AROUND MOBILE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WSR-88D VWPS IN SRN MS AND SW AL GENERALLY
SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SFC. THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS EMBEDDED IN
THE QLCS. A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH STORMS
THAT ROTATE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 01/10/2013


ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
Quoting RTSplayer:
Are people aware how bad the radar estimates are for rainfall totals in SELA?

We got 4.5 inches of rain in our gauge in one day out of this system and it's been raining since Tuesday, and the radar still has us as under 4 inches for the total since Tuesday. It seems like it's rained two or three times as much as the radar total says.

This is between Ponchatoula and Springfield in Tangipahoa Parish and Livingston Parish border.

KLIX has had apparent radar-rainfall underestimation issues for several months. That's why forecasters at the NWS use more than just radar for flood/flash flood forecasting. The River Forecast Centers create a gauge/radar/human QA-QC product that is also available online:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

This will probably match your observations more closely. As always, especially if you are in a data sparse area, your rainfall reports to your local NWS office would be appreciated.
Quoting dabirds:
Lost the last of our shaded snow yesterday Keep - see you guys have freezing rain chance too, probably a little more common there in Mid Jan. than in Duluth. I'm still having trouble with that! 41 and drizziling in S C IL.
freezing rain will be further east of my area i have a plus 7c temp reading at my back door and all thats left for snow is the piles from the plows
Quoting ColdInFL:
It's there for everyone to see, you just need to be open to both sides of the research.

Link


I know most of us can only read the news summary of these scientific articles because the actual articles are behind paywalls, but you can still generally read the abstracts for free. Here's what the abstract from the original Nature Geoscience article has to say about solar forcing and global temperature:

"...Low solar activity, as observed during recent years, drives cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature."

You can read the abstract for yourself here (and you can read the entire article if you're lucky enough to have access to Nature Geoscience or rich enough to pay $32 for the article).

Hmmm... "little direct change in globally averaged temperature"? So it sounds like the primary effect of the solar activity they studied is to nudge wind and ocean circulation patterns, thus influencing winter weather trends in the Northern Hemisphere. They conclude that the solar activity they are measuring does not explain the observed rise in global temperatures.

The Daily Mail even manages to capture this nuance... in the LAST sentence in the article: "...there is little direct impact on global temperatures." Of course, most people never make it to the last sentence of a news article...

Here is a portion of the Tallahassee forecast for the next few days; rain chances might have to be bumped up but look at these high temps for mid-Winter.

7-DAY FORECAST
This Afternoon A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 76. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Light and variable wind becoming south southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 76.
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Widespread 4-6'' rain over Louisiana over last 24-hrs according to RTMA 2.5km precip analysis. Welcome rain, I assume? http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/289429844880674 816/photo/1
Quoting ncstorm:
off topic

Shooting reported at high school in Taft, Calif.


Not again! I do not have the answer for this, but we had better find one soon.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Not again! I do not have the answer for this, but we had better find one soon.


I saw it on my phone..just awful..what can you say??

CNN just broke it now..said at least two people had been shot and parents are picking up their kids
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I would think that the only thing that would permanently alter Earth's climate is when our sun supernovas. There ain't no coming back from that!


Lol!

I don't think that would be the "only thing", but it would certainly trump AGW now wouldn't it?
Thanks Doc.
Thanks Dr Masters
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Not again! I do not have the answer for this, but we had better find one soon.


There is no answer, unless you find an answer to mental illness. I'm actually surprised that in a country of over 300 million people, where it's easy to buy a gun, this kind of thing doesn't happen more often.

Around 1% of that 300 million have, or will get, a diagnosis of schizophrenia. Many more, perhaps 10 times as many, have schizoid symptoms, but either don't meet the stringent criteria for a diagnosis of schizophrenia, or have simply not come to the attention of the health authorities.

Many of the perpetrators have Asperger's symptoms, and it's common for symptoms of both conditions to be present. The conditions are related.

So, you have tens of millions of people in the US who have, or will develop, schizophrenia or Asperger's, whether diagnosed or undiagnosed. And they can buy guns easily. Like I said, I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often. However, only a tiny percentage of them pose this kind of threat.

Fog over city
That blob is only half on land yet!!!

Loop Of Funktop embedded

Quoting dabirds:
Lost the last of our shaded snow yesterday Keep - see you guys have freezing rain chance too, probably a little more common there in Mid Jan. than in Duluth. I'm still having trouble with that! 41 and drizziling in S C IL.
I am from the area in northern mn it is not that unusual to have freezing rain from time to time and we nearly always get a January thaw for a few days.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I would think that the only thing that would permanently alter Earth's climate is when our sun supernovas. There ain't no coming back from that!
No supernova not enough mass just red giant then white dwarf
Thanks Doc for the entry.Interesting article even though I don't like the fact wunderground advertises TWC in our faces now >.>..No one respond please.
Quoting trumpman84:
The comparison of Venus to Earth is tired and plain fear mongering regardless of your stance on human induced climate change.

Please consider -- the atmospheric pressure on Venus is 92 times that of Earth. You know those high pressure systems we see on Earth that can raise temperatures in an area on Earth 5-20 degrees with a mear 1-3% increase in atmospheric pressure? Imagine a high pressure system that raised atmospheric pressure by 9200%!
Venus' atmospheric pressure isn't so high despite such a massive concentration of CO2, but because of it. Were Venus' atmosphere made up primarily of far lighter nitrogen as is Earth's, it's pressure wouldn't, of course, be so high.
Quoting trumpman84:
This, along with the much higher solar irradiance received due to its close proximity to the sun, are the two main reasons Venus is so much warmer than the Earth.
Incorrect. Yes, Venus is closer to the sun and thus receives roughly 93% more solar energy than does Earth. However, Venus' albedo is around 70%, more than double Earth's roughly 30%. That means more than 2/3 of the solar radiation striking Venus is reflected back to space--more than negating the warming advantage Venus gains by being closer to the sun. IOW, based on the distance from the Sun and the albedo of both planets, Venus should be colder than Earth because it actually absorbs a lot less solar radiation. Since that's clearly not the case, proximity is clearly not a factor.
Quoting trumpman84:
In a distant third is the higher concentration of CO2 on Venus compared to Earth. The Venus atmosphere is almost entirely Carbon Dioxide -- 96.5%. By contrast, the CO2 concentration on Earth's atmosphere is 0.04%. Even if we burned everything we have, and had the worst feedbacks imaginable, we wouldn't get close. It would take an atmospheric increase of 241,250% to reach Venus's concentration of CO2. Hell, it would take a CO2 concentration 2500% the current amount to even make up 1% of the atmosphere. For reference, atmospheric CO2 has increased 20-25% since pre-industrial times.
No, not a "distant third", but first place. Period. There are massive stores of carbon locked up in Earth's rocks, as there were at one time on Venus. Should we humans and/or some cataclysmic event occur to nudge warming past a certain point, there's absolutely nothing that would prevent our rocks from surrendering their carbon to the atmosphere in a runaway event similar to what is theorized to have happened on Venus.
Quoting trumpman84:
[T]his Venus = Earth argument is so easy to tear apart, I think it's embarassing to the AGW cause for those who continue to champion it.
If you ask me, this Venus ≠ Earth argument is so easy to tear apart, I think it's embarassing to the climate change denialist cause for those who continue to repeat it. ;-)
Quoting trumpman84:
Not to mention, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures have been much higher in the distant past, and no runaway feedbacks which permanently altered Earth's climate occured...
True. But then again, previous warming events didn't have humans helping out by pumping 3.4 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere each and every hour of each and every day...
Quoting VR46L:
That blob is only half on land yet!!!

Loop Of Funktop embedded



Is there much heavy rain under that part of the blog over the Gulf of Mexico?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Venus' atmospheric pressure isn't so high despite such a massive concentration of CO2, but because of it. Were Venus' atmosphere made up primarily of far lighter nitrogen as is Earth's, it's pressure wouldn't, of course, be so high.Incorrect. Yes, Venus is closer to the sun and thus receives roughly 93% more solar energy than does Earth. However, Venus' albedo is around 70%, more than double Earth's roughly 30%. That means more than 2/3 of the solar radiation striking Venus is reflected back to space--more than negating the warming advantage Venus gains by being closer to the sun. IOW, based on the distance from the Sun and the albedo of both planets, Venus should be colder than Earth because it actually absorbs a lot less solar radiation. Since that's clearly not the case, proximity is clearly not a factor.No, not a "distant third", but first place. Period. There are massive stores of carbon

locked up in Earth's rocks, as there were at one time on Venus. Should we humans and/or some cataclysmic event occur to nudge warming past a certain point, there's absolutely nothing that would prevent our rocks from surrendering their carbon to the atmosphere in a runaway event similar to what is theorized to have happened on Venus.If you ask me, this Venus ≠ Earth argument is so easy to tear apart, I think it's embarassing to the climate change denialist cause for those who continue to repeat it. ;-)True. But then again, previous warming events didn't have humans helping out by pumping 3.4 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere each and every hour of each and every day...


I wonder who Marvin argues with on Venus about climate change...dont worry earthlings, you wont be arguing about Earth atmosphere too long because he is building a huge ray gun to blow up earth..





CO2 outputs by humans are dwarfed by supervolcanoes.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


00z ECMWF supports this solution. Shows a Subtropical Storm 'Andrea' at 96 hours.


We'll have to watch it assuming the models remain consistent.


YEAHHH THIS IS 2013 HURRICANE SEASON.... A VERY EARLYYYYYYYY START LOL :))))
Security camera captures tornado touchdown in Plaquemine

Click Image for Link
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Is there much heavy rain under that part of the blog over the Gulf of Mexico?


Blog or blob? ;)Fooling with ya Ainslie!!!

It looks to have very deep Convection I would imagine the same level of rain that has already fallen no sign of dissipation , But I aint a met :p
Quoting VR46L:


Blog or blob? ;)Fooling with ya Ainslie!!!

It looks to have very deep Convection I would imagine the same level of rain that has already fallen no sign of dissipation , But I aint a met :p


Haha. My bad, Liz!

Yeah, that's exactly my thinking, too. You would have to think the same heavy rain rates falling over Louisiana are occurring over the GOM, if not even heavier.

Man, I couldn't even imagine the attention that thing would be getting in August of September!!

LOL
nymore, I realize you get freezing rain, but isn't it uncommon in mid Jan.? Though expect it's getting more common. We used to expect thaws in early Feb here, hardly freeze at all anymore.
11:11PST now 55.6 Forecast 57 Yesterday 49.1/70.7 Normal is 43/67
Almost afternoon here. Rained .01 earlier so YTD is 1.17"
Quoting TomballTXPride:
CO2 outputs by humans are dwarfed by supervolcanoes.


Anthropogenic CO2 output:   35   Gt/year
All the world's volcanoes:     0.2 - 0.3    Gt/year


Gt = gigaton = 1 billion metric tons

Oh, and here's my source. NASA

So what is the source for your comment? And what exactly are you trying to imply? I am genuinely curious.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Haha. My bad, Liz!

Yeah, that's exactly my thinking, too. You would have to think the same heavy rain rates falling over Louisiana are occurring over the GOM, if not even heavier.

Man, I couldn't even imagine the attention that thing would be getting in August of September!!

LOL


Yep . Actually think its slightly heavier in the Gulf ...

Yep Its would be garnering alot of attention thats for sure.



Snow in Jerusalem:

Quoting TomballTXPride:
CO2 outputs by humans are dwarfed by supervolcanoes.


Very little CO2 is outgassed by volcanoes. The main effect of volcanic eruptions on climate is a cooling effect, due to ejection of SO2 into the stratosphere.

In the troposphere, SO2 is rained out in a matter of days, but in the stratosphere it can persist for two years and reflects back solar radiation, cooling the surface.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Venus' atmospheric pressure isn't so high despite such a massive concentration of CO2, but because of it. Were Venus' atmosphere made up primarily of far lighter nitrogen as is Earth's, it's pressure wouldn't, of course, be so high.Incorrect. Yes, Venus is closer to the sun and thus receives roughly 93% more solar energy than does Earth. However, Venus' albedo is around 70%, more than double Earth's roughly 30%. That means more than 2/3 of the solar radiation striking Venus is reflected back to space--more than negating the warming advantage Venus gains by being closer to the sun. IOW, based on the distance from the Sun and the albedo of both planets, Venus should be colder than Earth because it actually absorbs a lot less solar radiation. Since that's clearly not the case, proximity is clearly not a factor.No, not a "distant third", but first place. Period. There are massive stores of carbon locked up in Earth's rocks, as there were at one time on Venus. Should we humans and/or some cataclysmic event occur to nudge warming past a certain point, there's absolutely nothing that would prevent our rocks from surrendering their carbon to the atmosphere in a runaway event similar to what is theorized to have happened on Venus.If you ask me, this Venus %u2260 Earth argument is so easy to tear apart, I think it's embarassing to the climate change denialist cause for those who continue to repeat it. ;-)True. But then again, previous warming events didn't have humans helping out by pumping 3.4 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere each and every hour of each and every day...
Comparing Apples and Oranges. Even Skeptical Science says Hanson is off base. I wish Jeff would at least do a little research before posting such nonsense from Hanson.
Quoting ncstorm:


I wonder who Marvin argues with on Venus about climate change...dont worry earthlings, you wont be arguing about Earth atmosphere too long because he is building a huge ray gun to blow up earth..
That's funny. But Martin doesn't need to build a big ray gun to destroy Earth-bound civilization; the fossil fuel industry--and the politicians and corporations beholden to it--are intent on doing it all by themselves...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



resemblance?....yeah...looks similar to Sandy's track.
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's funny. But Martin doesn't need to build a big ray gun to destroy Earth-bound civilization; the fossil fuel industry--and the politicians and corporations beholden to it--are intent on doing it all by themselves...
It'll just speed up the process ;-).Earth and it's people won't have to worry about GW no more.lol.
Quoting nymore:
No supernova not enough mass just red giant then white dwarf


Hey! Don't you have a slab to pour or something? LOL

Yes, you are correct. Darn it!

Supernova or Red Giant = We are toast. Our climate is permanently altered.
Quoting JerseyCapewxguy:



resemblance?....yeah...looks similar to Sandy's track.


true...


Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hey! Don't you have a slab to pour or something? LOL

Yes, you are correct. Darn it!

Supernova or Red Giant = We are toast. Our climate is permanently altered.
going on as we speak have a few minutes to waste as it sets. Not that long though went maybe a little high with the accelerator and water reducer.
Quoting nymore:
Comparing Apples and Oranges. Even Skeptical Science says Hanson is off base. I wish Jeff would at least do a little research before posting such nonsense from Hanson.
What Skeptical Science said is that a runaway greenhouse event is what got Venus into trouble, though such an event on Earth is unlikely for many years. Dr. Hansen said such an event could happen "eventually", and Dr. Masters clearly wrote that the TWC program says such an event "may one day descend on the Earth".

Apples and oranges? Off base?

Hardly.
Thanks Dr. Masters, hopefully we can have another year without a lot of tornadoes deaths.
Quoting Neapolitan:
What Skeptical Science said is that a runaway greenhouse event is what got Venus into trouble, though such an event on Earth is unlikely for many years. Dr. Hansen said such an event could happen "eventually", and Dr. Masters clearly wrote that the TWC program says such an event "may one day descend on the Earth".

Apples and oranges? Off base?

Hardly.
I could get struck by lightning twice today live through it then get hit by a meteor in the head and on my way to the hospital found out I won the lottery only to die from falling out of the ambulance while making the corner to finally get to the hospital.

After all it is possible.

FWIW it will happen one day when the sun becomes a red giant in what 5 billion years.

Edit: Quantum Physics says it is possible for me to walk through a wall.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
3:01 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (947 hPa) located at 16.8S 114.3E or 570 km north of Exmouth and 515 km north northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 9 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the south southwest towards Northwest Cape.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Exmouth during Friday afternoon, then extend south to Coral Bay Saturday morning.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast, possibly becoming destructive with wind gusts over 130 kilometers per hour overnight Saturday. Very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometers per hour are possible near the cyclone center.

Gales may extend south to Cape Cuvier during Sunday.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast on Friday with isolated heavy rainfall and squalls possible. This activity will extend into the western and southern Gascoyne over the weekend. Heavy falls are likely near the west Pilbara coast and adjacent Gascoyne on Saturday and Sunday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark on Friday night and Saturday with flooding of low lying coastal areas. A very dangerous storm tide is possible Saturday night if the center of the cyclone passes close to the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Cape Cuvier

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.0S 113.4E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.0S 113.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 21.2S 112.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 25.4S 111.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
The system has continued to intensify. Position is based on satellite imagery and is consistent with microwave image from 1307Z, which shows indications of an eye. Dvorak embedded center pattern, MET and pattern give a CI of 5.5. At 1200Z SATCON has 96 knots, based on ADT 71 knots, and CIMSS AMSU 107 knots. Intensity currently stands at 90 knots.

Motion has been southwest at around 9 knots, but is forecast to slow a little over the next 6 to 12 hours. There is some confidence in forecasting a continued SSW track taking the system west of Exmouth. However a severe coastal impact in the west Pilbara is still a possibility.

North to northeasterly shear of about 10 knots is expected to continue. Given that the system is moving south southwesterly at around 9 knots, the storm relative shear is low.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Not again! I do not have the answer for this, but we had better find one soon.
...just another indicator that the apes are soon to rise!
Good afternoon, and thanks for the blog Dr. Masters, looks like a quiet severe weather period shaping up for a while, as would be expected in January.

Sorry if this has been mentioned, but there's a huge sunspot, numbered 1654, transiting the Earth-facing side of the Sun right now. It produced a near M class flare earlier today and seems to be getting more active and complex as it rotates closer to direct Earth view:

Quoting ncstorm:
off topic

Shooting reported at high school in Taft, Calif.



Oh boy...here we go again...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon, and thanks for the blog Dr. Masters, looks like a quiet severe weather period shaping up for a while, as would be expected in January.

Sorry if this has been mentioned, but there's a huge sunspot, numbered 1654, transiting the Earth-facing side of the Sun right now. It produced a near M class flare earlier today and seems to be getting more active and complex as it rotates closer to direct Earth view:



Does this mean a cooling trend?
From Levi's Twitter

Quoting Levi32:
Amazing what finding that flush command did for me. Should be able to go live later today with a beta product page.


Link
Quoting TomTaylor:
From Levi's Twitter



Link

I can't wait, hopefully that won't be blocked by my school like all the other model pages...
I am going home from school, be back in a bit.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Does this mean a cooling trend?
Not necessarily. A single sunspot doesn't mean much, but solar activity definitely does cycle over the years.

The image below, however, certainly supports a cooling trend.

Quoting FunnelVortex:


Does this mean a cooling trend?

There's a lot of debate as to the effects of sunspots and solar flares on the climate. Some suggest increased solar activity of the past century is largely responsible for observed warming trends, though this is a generally rejected idea by scientists. Some also suggest that we may start to go through a cooling trend in the near future as it appears the solar activity of the last century that I mentioned is subsiding and we may be about to go into a long, deep minimum of few sunspots and solar flares, which some say would induce global cooling. Again though, that idea is generally rejected, as there is very little evidence to suggest sunspot cycles have a major effect on Earth's climate.
lots of interesting stuff out there today...

"Amazing Image: Eerie Nightglow Over Texas."

Link

"The Suomi NPP satellite caught a massive thunderstorm making waves in the nightglow above Texas and Oklahoma on April 15, 2012. While nightglow is a well-known phenomenon, scientists were surprised at Suomi NPP's ability to detect it, according to NASA's Earth Observatory. During the satellite's check-out procedures, scientists thought this light source was a problem with the sensor until they realized that they were seeing the faintest light in the darkness of night, the Earth Observatory reported."
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
lots of interesting stuff out there today...

"Amazing Image: Eerie Nightglow Over Texas."

Link

"The Suomi NPP satellite caught a massive thunderstorm making waves in the nightglow above Texas and Oklahoma on April 15, 2012. While nightglow is a well-known phenomenon, scientists were surprised at Suomi NPP's ability to detect it, according to NASA's Earth Observatory. During the satellite's check-out procedures, scientists thought this light source was a problem with the sensor until they realized that they were seeing the faintest light in the darkness of night, the Earth Observatory reported."

ECMWF showing a healthy Andrea in the middle of next week.



Quoting VR46L:
Umm , The GFS 12Z Atlantic run is rather hilarious at the moment....

Drama a system coming off the North Coast of the US turns into a Sub/tropical System ...LOL

GFS 12Z From Raleigh

Its really weird to happen but not unprecedented I think there has been 3 or 4 storms that has form in june in the records and even 1 reach hurricane status.
112. N3EG
This is both pathetic and funny...Winter Storm Gandolf. When it went over us in Washington State it was just another Pacific no-name, AS ALWAYS.

Wake me up when they name these things at 160W in the ocean...
Quoting nymore:
I could get struck by lightning twice today live through it then get hit by a meteor in the head and on my way to the hospital found out I won the lottery only to die from falling out of the ambulance while making the corner to finally get to the hospital.

After all it is possible.

FWIW it will happen one day when the sun becomes a red giant in what 5 billion years.

Edit: Quantum Physics says it is possible for me to walk through a wall.


Quantum Physics suggests that it is possible to be in more than one place at the same time. There are days that this would certainly come in handy. ... Except I do not trust my other selves to conduct daily business for me. ... That has gotten me in trouble before. :-)
With regards to Venus as an endstate for the Earth's evolution - that's almost a certainty. That said, I strongly doubt anthropogenic climate change will push us that far - rather, we'll go down that route in several hundred million years time (possibly a billion), as a result of the Sun gradually becoming more and more luminous.

At some point, the average surface temperature of the Earth will get sufficiently high for the oceans and surface water to become unsustainable. I can't remember when that happens, off the top of my head, but I think it is predicted to occur at around 50 degrees centigrade (as a mean temperature for the planet). At that point, the oceans evaporate, and you gradually shed more and more of the Earth's water to space, as the atmospheric water is slowly dissociated by high energy Solar radiation and the hydrogen escapes.

The water in our atmosphere currently is almost entirely protected from that by the temperature inversion at the top of the troposphere, which keeps almost all the water trapped in the lowest level of the atmosphere, where it is relatively safe from the nasty high energy stuff. Put enough water in the atmosphere, though, and it'll start to bleed through the inversion (or the inversion will collapse).

Once the Earth is dry, plate tectonics will cease (since the Earth is of too low a mass to sustain wide-scale plate tectonics without the lubricating effect of water) - which will, in turn, stop the sequestration of carbon back into the mantle from the surface. Without that, the eruption of gasses from vulcanism will gradually add both a significant amount of greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere, and build the atmospheric pressure - leading to a Venutian-style runaway greenhouse...

I'm unashamedly one of those convinced that man is deleteriously affecting the Earth's climate - but as a Solar system astronomer, I can't see any way that man-made climate change could push the average temperature of the planet up by more than 30 degrees. At the very least, I figure that we'll either have figured out a way to curtail our emissions well before that point, or the hideously changed climate will have stopped us in its own way :)
SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East of Mindanao

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 5.6N 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. This depression is reported as moving north slowly.
Quoting ColdInFL:
It's there for everyone to see, you just need to be open to both sides of the research.

Link


Using that article to make that point is a little... off base. Combine the quote "It means after a baking hot September, we could be in for a repeat of last year's big freeze." and the publication date (October, 2011) and you'll see the forecast didn't quite verify. The UK didn't have the crazy anomalous warm winter the US did in 2011/12, but it was significantly warmer than average.

Quoting FunnelVortex:
ECMWF showing a healthy Andrea in the middle of next week.



Holy Early Hurricanes Batman... Already?
Yo, Mobile Alabama.. Doesn't look quite that bad, but given your propensity for tornadoes in recent weeks, you might want to keep an eye on that squall line moving in from the SW off the Gulf toward you!
;)
I'm sick of nothing significant happening winter-wise in my area, so we might as well start the 2013 Atlantic season now. :)
120. VR46L
Quoting Slamguitar:
I'm sick of nothing significant happening winter-wise in my area, so we might as well start the 2013 Atlantic season now. :)


According to some its about to start....

But we will see..
Quoting Quadrantid:
With regards to Venus as an endstate for the Earth's evolution - that's almost a certainty. That said, I strongly doubt anthropogenic climate change will push us that far - rather, we'll go down that route in several hundred million years time (possibly a billion), as a result of the Sun gradually becoming more and more luminous.

At some point, the average surface temperature of the Earth will get sufficiently high for the oceans and surface water to become unsustainable. I can't remember when that happens, off the top of my head, but I think it is predicted to occur at around 50 degrees centigrade (as a mean temperature for the planet). At that point, the oceans evaporate, and you gradually shed more and more of the Earth's water to space, as the atmospheric water is slowly dissociated by high energy Solar radiation and the hydrogen escapes.

The water in our atmosphere currently is almost entirely protected from that by the temperature inversion at the top of the troposphere, which keeps almost all the water trapped in the lowest level of the atmosphere, where it is relatively safe from the nasty high energy stuff. Put enough water in the atmosphere, though, and it'll start to bleed through the inversion (or the inversion will collapse).

Once the Earth is dry, plate tectonics will cease (since the Earth is of too low a mass to sustain wide-scale plate tectonics without the lubricating effect of water) - which will, in turn, stop the sequestration of carbon back into the mantle from the surface. Without that, the eruption of gasses from vulcanism will gradually add both a significant amount of greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere, and build the atmospheric pressure - leading to a Venutian-style runaway greenhouse...

I'm unashamedly one of those convinced that man is deleteriously affecting the Earth's climate - but as a Solar system astronomer, I can't see any way that man-made climate change could push the average temperature of the planet up by more than 30 degrees. At the very least, I figure that we'll either have figured out a way to curtail our emissions well before that point, or the hideously changed climate will have stopped us in its own way :)


I was thinking the same. Even if we used up all the oil resources possible, Venus' proximity to the Sun makes a big deal of difference, as well as chemical composition of her atmosphere too I reckon, which was likely always more toxic than earth, or at the very least, never mellowed as Earth has. In time as the Sun expands and swallows Mercury and then Venus, we would of course have the planet turn more Venusian. But the human race may be long extinct by that time anyway.
Now of course if something devestating happened to the atmosphere...that's a whole other ball game. Could fossil fuels and man-made chemicals damage it enough? Maybe, it survived through the past of heavier volcanic activity and big asteroid hits etc...but don't really want to try as it's certainly a possibility still!

Why does the forecast for Cyclone Narelle only show it going from a super strength to a tropical storm? Are they not sure of intensity as it skirts the coast? Be an interesting week for the west coast there. I know quite a few people there, as has been popular the last many years for Brits to go there, and the ones I know have mainly gone to the west coast. Cheaper to live maybe?

It's finally turning to winter here. Have possibility of snow this weekend...though hoping not til Sunday as no good driving home very late night on wintry roads. Great hardly any other traffic and thus, not dealing with awful drivers tho don't know how to drive on it...but less cars = more ice able to freeze on the road blah
Quoting Slamguitar:
I'm sick of nothing significant happening winter-wise in my area, so we might as well start the 2013 Atlantic season now. :)

It is supposed to get near 60F on Saturday over here, definitely not feeling like winter. There is some hope after this system as the 6-10 day map does have us in the blue.
Weather Underground‏@wunderground

Tornado Warning for Jones County in MS until 4:00 PM CST http://wxug.us/a39m
Portlight Disaster Relief
Portlight & Bona Responds Ramp it Up in NY



www.portlight.org

We're excited to bring you an update on our activities in post-Sandy New York! Working with Jim Mahar and the good folks from Bona Responds, a ramp has been built for young Ryan in Breezy Point, who has cerebral palsy. His dad was having a tough time getting him out of the house, to and from school, after their lift was destroyed. Portlight helped with the lumber, and Bona Responds built the 55 linear feet of ramp. They're doing amazing work, in spite of freezing temperatures and short days. They even hang drywall in the dark!

Many thanks to the Robin Hood Foundation, the Disability Funders Network, the Kessler Foundation,
and as ALWAYS, to YOU, for your continued support!!

Ryan LOVES his new ramp!!

That smile says it all!







Working on the deck (Portlight)
Volunteer Greg Laughnan screws down deck boards for the ramp.

110
WFUS54 KJAN 102117
TORJAN
MSC067-102200-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0002.130110T2117Z-130110T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
317 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN JONES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 400 PM CST

* AT 317 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR OVETT
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TUCKERS CROSSING BY 325 PM CST...
MILL CREEK BY 345 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.



LAT...LON 3143 8910 3150 8921 3151 8921 3183 8896
3182 8894 3144 8894 3143 8901
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 217DEG 25KT 3152 8906



GRG
NOLA radar with STORM TRACKS



Quoting wxchaser97:

It is supposed to get near 60F on Saturday over here, definitely not feeling like winter. There is some hope after this system as the 6-10 day map does have us in the blue.


If the 6-10 day doesn't materialize, there's always the 8-14 day.

Global warming...yeah. Jerusalem got 8 inches of snow today. But nothing on this blog to contradict the religion of global warming, which, is centered where...Penn State, East Anglia?
co2now.org


394.39ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for December 2012

Preliminary data dated January 3, 2013


Quoting bjrabbit:
Global warming...yeah. Jerusalem got 8 inches of snow today. But nothing on this blog to contradict the religion of global warming, which, is centered where...Penn State, East Anglia?


Thats not unusual .. it snows every couple of years in Jerusalem ..
131. VR46L
@ 122 &127 Thanks for posting them Maps .
Lots of blue on them ... They have been growing bluer all week. Which should please everyone ...
I love reading these discussions from my local mets. This one is from Brooks Garner, "Putting on the nerd hat: Looks like the polar vortex really could shift from China to Canada in the coming week, ultimately pushing colder air back our way. It's all about the Rossby waves... Whenever we see 5 troughs form across the Northern Hemisphere, the pattern is ready for a shake-up. ("3" is a more stable number, resulting in a more "set" weather pattern.)"
Quoting MidMOwx:


If the 6-10 day doesn't materialize, there's always the 8-14 day.

Look at the warmth over Alaska, that might give us the indication of a pattern change.
12z ECMWF has the Subtropical low in the Atlantic weaker, and more of a hybrid systems. If the next run fails to show anything significant, chances for development of the low will drop to virtually zero.
FYI...
NWS MOB is reporting access to Dual Pole January 14 now. 2 weeks earlier thought

by the way, what is going on with rain in Gaza?
Quoting Patrap:
Portlight Disaster Relief
Portlight & Bona Responds Ramp it Up in NY



www.portlight.org

We're excited to bring you an update on our activities in post-Sandy New York! Working with Jim Mahar and the good folks from Bona Responds, a ramp has been built for young Ryan in Breezy Point, who has cerebral palsy. His dad was having a tough time getting him out of the house, to and from school, after their lift was destroyed. Portlight helped with the lumber, and Bona Responds built the 55 linear feet of ramp. They're doing amazing work, in spite of freezing temperatures and short days. They even hang drywall in the dark!

Many thanks to the Robin Hood Foundation, the Disability Funders Network, the Kessler Foundation,
and as ALWAYS, to YOU, for your continued support!!

Ryan LOVES his new ramp!!

That smile says it all!







Working on the deck (Portlight)
Volunteer Greg Laughnan screws down deck boards for the ramp.
Thank you Pat... Your'e the best
Quoting bjrabbit:
Global warming...yeah. Jerusalem got 8 inches of snow today. But nothing on this blog to contradict the religion of global warming, which, is centered where...Penn State, East Anglia?


How strange. I do not ever recall you pointing out heat wave and drought events that are becoming far more frequent than the snow and cold events. Also, is it not strange that we cannot look at a weather event and see the climate? ... They must be two separate things?
Narelle may finally be forming an eye:




Snow falls as an ultra-orthodox Jewish man walks at the Western Wall in Jerusalem's Old City, Thursday, Jan. 10, 2013. Stormy weather conditions continued on Thursday with snow, torrential rains and strong winds across the region. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)
The CME off the sun is not headed this way. But it is on the side of the sun spinning toward us.

P.S. don't lick the wailing wall! ewe maht gat stubuk.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
351 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF QUITMAN...
SOUTHERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MERIDIAN...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 351 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR QUITMAN
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
STONEWALL BY 400 PM CST...
SABLE AND MIDDLETON BY 410 PM CST...
SAVOY BY 420 PM CST...
MEEHAN AND INCREASE BY 425 PM CST...
ZERO BY 430 PM CST...
NELLIEBURG BY 435 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8872 3202 8892 3251 8890 3232 8843
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 197DEG 23KT 3209 8879

$$

GRG

Snow covers the Russian Church over the neighbourhood of Ein Kerem and the western outskirts of Jerusalem January 10, 2013.The worst snowstorm in 20 years shut public transport, roads and schools in Jerusalem on Thursday and along the northern Israeli region bordering on Lebanon. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
Quoting VR46L:
@ 122 &127 Thanks for posting them Maps .
Lots of blue on them ... They have been growing bluer all week. Which should please everyone ...


LOL, it would please me more if the stubborn, blocking linebacker, er... the deep-layered Caribbean-Antilles-Bahama ridge clearly depicted in the graphic Tom posted #106 would truly get shunted away and not reappear for next 2 months... allowing more cold air penetration into the Gulf South!

However, I might be in the minority opinion with this. Seems a lot of Floridians enjoy the warmth that big bloated ridge delivers!
;)
Quoting Patrap:

Snow covers the Russian Church over the neighbourhood of Ein Kerem and the western outskirts of Jerusalem January 10, 2013.The worst snowstorm in 20 years shut public transport, roads and schools in Jerusalem on Thursday and along the northern Israeli region bordering on Lebanon. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
please can you post the link? Thank's!

A man walks near palm trees as snow falls in Jerusalem's old city on January 10, 2013. Jerusalem was transformed into a winter wonderland after heavy overnight snowfall turned the Holy City and much of the region white, bringing hordes of excited children onto the streets. MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP/Getty Images
Stephen Hawking and Carl Sagan on the Greenhouse Effect

Quoting Luisport:
please can you post the link? Thank's!


mercurynews.com


Flamingos are seen in their snow-covered enclosure in Jerusalem's Biblical Zoo January 10, 2013. The worst snowstorm in 20 years shut public transport, roads and schools in Jerusalem on Thursday and along the northern Israeli region bordering on Lebanon.
REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun
152. VR46L
Gulf activity Moving further East...

Funktop GFT

Quoting DocNDswamp:


LOL, it would please me more if the stubborn, blocking linebacker, er... the deep-layered Caribbean-Antilles-Bahama ridge clearly depicted in the graphic Tom posted #106 would truly get shunted away and not reappear for next 2 months... allowing more cold air penetration into the Gulf South!

However, I might be in the minority opinion with this. Seems a lot of Floridians enjoy the warmth that big bloated ridge delivers!
;)

YES WE DO
Quoting VR46L:
Gulf activity Moving further East...

Funktop GFT

i cant believe thats not going to reach florida...
Beautiful day here just west of Houston. Felt like a spring day. The sun really is not bright enough by local standards, but after so many gloomy days the contrast makes it seem brighter than it is. Air is calm and the wet ground keeps it fairly humid. Like a still cool morning all day long. Strange, saw a monarch butterfly headed south today, too. Seen stragglers all through December. Nice to see water standing in fields and ditches. Glorious day.
Quoting bappit:
Beautiful day here just west of Houston. Felt like a spring day. The sun really is not bright enough by local standards, but after so many gloomy days the contrast makes it seem brighter than it is. Air is calm and the wet ground keeps it fairly humid. Like a still cool morning all day long. Strange, saw a monarch butterfly headed south today, too. Seen stragglers all through December. Nice to see water standing in fields and ditches. Glorious day.

Glad to hear that you guys recieved some much-needed rain. We wish we had it, but we also know that you guys out there need it more.
Feds say wind farms could work off Cape Fear coast
By Kate Elizabeth Queram
Kate.Queram@StarNewsOnline.com
Published: Wednesday, January 9, 2013 at 9:33 p.m.
Last Modified: Wednesday, January 9, 2013 at 9:33 p.m.

Parcels of water off the North Carolina coast could be leased for offshore wind farming as early as 2014, though construction may not begin for up to five years after that, officials said Wednesday.

"I think there will be offshore wind in North Carolina," Maureen Bornholdt, renewable energy program manager for the federal Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, told a packed conference room at the Courtyard Marriott. "It's a matter of, in what area? That will morph depending on the type of comments we get and the ongoing discussions."

Representatives from BOEM held the informational meeting at the Wilmington hotel to give area residents a chance to learn and ask questions about offshore wind farms.

The event, officials said, doesn't guarantee that wind development will definitely happen in Tar Heel State waters, but represents a more tangible sign of progress than the discussion that's hummed among environmental groups for years.

As of now, three sites off the coast have been identified as potential sites for wind development. One is in the Outer Banks and the other two – roughly 17 miles south of Bald Head Island and 11 miles southeast of Sunset Beach – flank Oak Island.

Because the continental shelf drops off relatively slowly from the shore here, North Carolina has an exceptionally large block of water less than 30 meters deep, making conditions ideal for wind turbine installations.

"We have the largest resource off the East Coast for wind," said Jen Banks, wind energy project coordinator for the state Solar Center at N.C. State University.
Can we reach double digit Mesoscale Discussions from the SPC by tonight!!!!?!Pretty sure we will eventually today :p
Quoting DocNDswamp:


LOL, it would please me more if the stubborn, blocking linebacker, er... the deep-layered Caribbean-Antilles-Bahama ridge clearly depicted in the graphic Tom posted #106 would truly get shunted away and not reappear for next 2 months... allowing more cold air penetration into the Gulf South!

However, I might be in the minority opinion with this. Seems a lot of Floridians enjoy the warmth that big bloated ridge delivers!
;)


Clinging tightly to that bloated ridge here in Cape Coral, thank you very much! ;-) 'Hope the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama folks are staying safe today. My Mom's from New Orleans and that part of the country has a soft spot in my heart.
162. VR46L
Quoting thunderbug91:
i cant believe thats not going to reach florida...


Oh I think It will reach the Panhandle .
Quoting VR46L:


Oh I think It will reach the Panhandle .

lol yeah but im in Tampa
P'cola's about to get the squall line..such as it is...
165. VR46L
Quoting thunderbug91:

lol yeah but im in Tampa


Still it will reach part of Florida :) , Or do the peninsula not regard the Panhandle as part of Florida ?
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
5:47 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (947 hPa) located at 17.1S 113.9E or 535 km north of Exmouth and 505 km northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the south southwest towards Northwest Cape.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Exmouth during this afternoon, then extend south to Coral Bay Saturday morning. Gales may extend south to Carnarvon during Sunday.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast, possibly becoming destructive with wind gusts over 130 kilometers per hour overnight Saturday. Very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometers per hour are possible near the cyclone center.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast during the day with isolated heavy rainfall and squalls possible. This activity will extend into the western and southern Gascoyne over the weekend. Heavy falls are likely near the west Pilbara coast and adjacent Gascoyne on Saturday and Sunday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight, and during Saturday with flooding of low lying coastal areas. A very dangerous storm tide is possible Saturday night if the center of the cyclone passes close to the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth


Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon
ANNO DOMINI MMXII
_________________________

Greatest weather events

________________



click picture for larger view... about 5 times bigger picture
I don't feel so good..I think I may have gotten the flu from Duke earlier today.

Go figure...I was just talking about not having it the other day.
Mid TN forecast to ties high temp records this weekend.. then chance of snow come Tuesday...weeeeeeee..
Current map

Dr Hansen states that Earth's climate will run away to the extremes of Venus. But where will the carbon come from? The atmosphere of Venus is mostly C02 and it is 100x more massive than the earth's atmosphere.
That makes 200,000 times more total CO2 than we have if my arithmetic is right.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't feel so good..I think I may have gotten the flu from Duke earlier today.

Go figure...I was just talking about not having it the other day.
Looks like a very bad year for the flu....Glad I got my shot...Sure hope it works. Many sick people here in Palm Beach county
Everybody makes mistakes, even SPC forecasters(ATE should be LATE).


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE


VALID 102135Z - 102300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN AL AND
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL AND THE PROBABILITY OF WW ISSUANCE IS 40 PERCENT.

DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
FROM FAR SRN AL EXTENDING NWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AL WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE. AS THE LINE OF
CONVECTION WEST OF MOBILE MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. IF THE LINE CAN
INTENSIFY...THEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH ABOUT
25 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND
DAMAGE THREAT AND TORNADO THREAT. THE THREATS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR
EAST AS THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING
AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 01/10/2013
I saw people discussing about the models showing development in the atlantic.Now that's funny.
..Shameless Blog Plug,
Yes it was, Thanks for posting that 22+ minutes of the Honors Show.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I saw people discussing about the models showing development in the atlantic.Now that's funny.


Hahaha!!!!!!!Yeah they are talking about Andrea LoL!!!!!
Quoting PedleyCA:
..Shameless Blog Plug,
Yes it was, Thanks for posting that 22+ minutes of the Honors Show.


yer welcome'
Quoting DocNDswamp:


LOL, it would please me more if the stubborn, blocking linebacker, er... the deep-layered Caribbean-Antilles-Bahama ridge clearly depicted in the graphic Tom posted #106 would truly get shunted away and not reappear for next 2 months... allowing more cold air penetration into the Gulf South!

However, I might be in the minority opinion with this. Seems a lot of Floridians enjoy the warmth that big bloated ridge delivers!
;)


I may be the exception. I have a half dozen palm trees and a few other shrubs to prune but there's these flying, stinging critters that enjoy building nests in my shrubs and beneath palm fronds. I need a good cold snap so these little fellers will quit terrorizing me every time I attempt to prune.
Baby, When I think about you
I think about love
Darling, Don't live without you
And your love
If I have
Those golden dreams
of my yesterday
I would wrap you
In the heaven
Til I'm dying
On the way
Feel like making ______
Feel like making love
Feel like making love to you
Quoting StAugustineFL:


I may be the exception. I have a half dozen palm trees and a few other shrubs to prune but there's these flying, stinging critters that enjoy building nests in my shrubs and beneath palm fronds. I need a good cold snap so these little fellers will quit terrorizing me every time I attempt to prune.
StA...Big problem here with the white flies and the ficus shrubs.... I hate to spray because of my little Gecko friends.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Feel Like Makin' Love
My buddy
Quoting stormchaser19:


Hahaha!!!!!!!Yeah they are talking about Andrea LoL!!!!!
Now I'm not to sure if this comment is being sarcastic like I suspect or if it's real.I think your being sarcastic.But anyway the weather is already F'ed up.Why not start hurricane season early.
Dreary here today and gonna stay that way. 52.7 and 59.9 were the temps.
Should be mid 50's all week and cold at night in the mid 30's.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
My buddy


What can I say - it amuses me.....
Sun is up on Narelle:

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
StA...Big problem here with the white flies and the ficus shrubs.... I hate to spray because of my little Gecko friends.


Up here it's the wasps. Reminds me of Pigpen from the Peanuts cartoon but instead of the persistent dust cloud circling him, it's wasps in my case. That's an exaggeration but not entirely too far-fetched.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
5:47 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================================

At 5:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (947 hPa) located at 17.1S 113.9E or 535 km north of Exmouth and 505 km northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the south southwest towards Northwest Cape.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Exmouth during this afternoon, then extend south to Coral Bay Saturday morning. Gales may extend south to Carnarvon during Sunday.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast, possibly becoming destructive with wind gusts over 130 kilometers per hour overnight Saturday. Very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometers per hour are possible near the cyclone center.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast during the day with isolated heavy rainfall and squalls possible. This activity will extend into the western and southern Gascoyne over the weekend. Heavy falls are likely near the west Pilbara coast and adjacent Gascoyne on Saturday and Sunday.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight, and during Saturday with flooding of low lying coastal areas. A very dangerous storm tide is possible Saturday night if the center of the cyclone passes close to the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth


Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon


I've never understood the difference between 10 minute winds and 1 minute winds? Can someone explain?
.
Quoting wxgeek723:


I've never understood the difference between 10 minute winds and 1 minute winds? Can someone explain?

10-minute winds are when they are measured at a height of 33 feet for 10 minutes, and then averaged for a particular value. The same occurs for 1-minute, but in a 1-minute time span.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now I'm not to sure if this comment is being sarcastic like I suspect or if it's real.I think your being sarcastic.But anyway the weather is already F'ed up.Why not start hurricane season early.


Yes everything its posible specially with this climate change....Its just a sarcastic comment ..I think just 2 tropical cyclones since 1851 has formed in january....It hard to believe with the shear and the SST in the atlantic
Quoting JNCali:
Mid TN forecast to ties high temp records this weekend.. then chance of snow come Tuesday...weeeeeeee..
Current map


I'm confused, the NWS in Hendersonville don't have snow in the forecast. They have a low of 36 for Middle TN.
Quoting stormchaser19:


Yes everything its posible specially with this climate change....Its just a sarcastic comment ..I think just 2 tropical cyclones since 1851 has formed in january....It hard to believe with the shear and the SST in the atlantic

Yup, it very very rarely happens. There have been 2 storms that have formed in January and 2 that formed in December and persisted into January. If a subtropical storm does somehow form from what the models show then it could rival for the second earliest start to the hurricane season. That subtropical storm was Subtropical Storm One in 1978. That is the only subtropical storm to form in January. Also, if we get Andrea then it would be the second time in a row that name is used for a subtropical storm, the only two times "Andrea" has been used.
70s here in Bama all week..
Narelle is looking better than it did 24hrs ago. Now there is a better defined eye and eyewall on microwave imagery instead of a poorly defined one that looked a lot like a question mark. Given that conditions are still favorable more strengthening is certainly expected. The western coast of Australia should begin to get impacts from Narelle in the next day or so.

The first tornado of 2013 occurred this morning near the city of New Iberia, Louisiana. It was rated an EF1.
Quoting Thrawst:
Can we reach double digit Mesoscale Discussions from the SPC by tonight!!!!?!Pretty sure we will eventually today :p

And we do reach MCD #10 today. I'll just link the discussion to take up less space.

Mesoscale Discussion #10
If anyone is interested, I did a little blog post on the flu outbreak for this year:

Flu Outbreak
Quoting dabirds:
nymore, I realize you get freezing rain, but isn't it uncommon in mid Jan.? Though expect it's getting more common. We used to expect thaws in early Feb here, hardly freeze at all anymore.
no it is not exactly uncommon, it just happened about three weeks ago. It does not happen a lot but it does happen. Temps can range wildly around here.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Quantum Physics suggests that it is possible to be in more than one place at the same time. There are days that this would certainly come in handy. ... Except I do not trust my other selves to conduct daily business for me. ... That has gotten me in trouble before. :-)
That is a great point and it made me laugh. thanks


Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

January thaw continues into this weekend with periods of
Freezing rain over Eastern Ontario on Friday.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system developing over Oklahoma this afternoon is
expected to track northeast towards the Great Lakes tonight and
Friday. This low will bring very mild and fairly moist air into
Southern Ontario.

Current indications suggest rain fall amounts in the 5 to 10 mm range
will be common on Friday with local amounts up to 20 mm mainly over
regions in Southern Ontario. There is also very good potential of
freezing rain for Eastern Ontario on Friday, especially along the
Ottawa Valley including the National Capital Region. A freezing rain
warning has been issued for those regions.

On Saturday very mild air ushered in by southerly winds will help
temperatures rise to 10 to 13 degrees in many areas. Temperatures in
a few locales may reach the mid teens especially in snow-free areas,
making it feel more like late April.

As a result of the very mild temperatures, a number of new maximum
temperature records may be set Friday and Saturday. Most if not all
of the snow on the ground across Southern Ontario and in Eastern
Ontario will melt by Saturday.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 110023Z - 110630Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH RATES OF AROUND
0.05 IN/HR...LOCALLY HIGHER...BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z.

DISCUSSION...A 90-150-MILE WIDE...WNW/ESE-ORIENTED PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING NNEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN WI THIS
EVENING...ENTERING THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI BY 04Z. THIS ACTIVITY
ACCOMPANIES A ZONE OF ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT -- REF. GRB VWP
DATA THAT DEPICT A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE BELOW 1 KM AGL.
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING ELEVATED WARM LAYER TEMPERATURES
RISING TO 3-6C IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION...COMPLETE
MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS WILL OCCUR.

AT THE SFC...ESELY/SELY TRAJECTORIES...EMANATING FROM A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR MASS CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL ALLOW
SFC WET BULB TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY HOLD IN THE 30-32F RANGE.
THIS WILL BE AIDED BY NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN SFC-LAYER DIABATIC COOLING.
AS SUCH...FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED...WITH RATES OF 0.05 IN/HR
LIKELY...AND LOCALLY HIGHER RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR THE HIGHEST FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL BE FROM 02Z TO 08Z AS
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE ACTIVITY
LIKELY TAPERING OFF LATER IN THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY LOCALLY
CHANGE TO RAIN WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE 32F...OWING TO
DOWNWARD-DIRECTED SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES AND/OR VERY MODEST SFC WARM
ADVECTION.

..COHEN.. 01/11/2013
Quoting Astrometeor:


I'm confused, the NWS in Hendersonville don't have snow in the forecast. They have a low of 36 for Middle TN.
hmm.. I'm over to the West of Nashville, maybe that's why?!
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
9:00 AM FST January 11 2013
===================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 08F (1003 hPa) located at 13.9S 178.1W is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multi-spectral visible imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor in the past 24 hours. Convection persistent in the northeast semi-circle of the system center. The system lies to the east of an upper ridge in a moderate to high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and gradually moves it southwards with slight intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Narelle is a beautiful storm. It'd be even better if it cleared the eye out:

141 days left until June 1rst.

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
141 days left until June 1rst.

Link


Tropics,

That cold front you said would arrive today must be arriving now. That's some wind happening out there right now!

Lindy
Quoting Neapolitan:
This may have already been mentioned, but yet another Windy City (lack of) snowfall record was broken yesterday: Chicago reaches record 320 days without 1 inch of snow.


I mentioned that 2 days ago, Ginger Zee from GMA mentioned it in a tweet which I posted here.
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


Tropics,

That cold front you said would arrive today must be arriving now. That's some wind happening out there right now!

Lindy


A weak boundary moved thru today and another one will arrive on Saturday. As I said yesterday,the strong winds we have been experiencing will slowly diminish starting on Friday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST THU JAN 10 2013



.DISCUSSION...A NEARBY BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO REINFORCE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AND WINDWARD LAND AREAS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE NEXT BOUNDARY BRINGS MORE SHOWERS
THROUGH ON SATURDAY. CONDITIONS ARE SET TO IMPROVE SUNDAY BUT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS AREAS
OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST CONTINUE
TO MOVE THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS CARRIED IN
ON THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE OF THE VERY LARGE LOW THAT DOMINATES THE
ATLANTIC MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA.
Photo's off the coast of Onslow in NW Western Australia. It was a mixture of sand and water.







Pictures: Jeff Miles
Temperature Update, This is for tomorrow(Saturday).

Venus is a syndrome now?

Oh yeah, I forgot that Venus became the way it is because Venutians burned all their fossil fuels.

Silly me.
Why am I not surprised!

Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
What Skeptical Science said is that a runaway greenhouse event is what got Venus into trouble, though such an event on Earth is unlikely for many years. Dr. Hansen said such an event could happen "eventually", and Dr. Masters clearly wrote that the TWC program says such an event "may one day descend on the Earth".

Apples and oranges? Off base?

Hardly.


I think the better argument would be -- all human life would be long, long extinguished before we ever approached the atmospheric Co2 level of Venus considering CO2 is acutely toxic to humans at concentrations of 7-10%. I would venture to guess we couldn't live over a prolonged period of time in an atmosphere with over 1% or possibly lower.
Quoting SuperYooper:
Venus is a syndrome now?

Oh yeah, I forgot that Venus became the way it is because Venutians burned all their fossil fuels.

Silly me.
ya thats right silly you
I believe it's currently thought that Venus's atmosphere got that way more due to the thickness of it's crust than for any other reason.

Said thickness (so the theory goes) is such that the decay heat from the interior cannot escape via tectonic vulcanism in the manner it does on earth, but instead builds until it reaches such a critical level that it triggers a mass "melting" of the crust every 500 million years or so . . .

This massive event, making the Siberian Traps look like a Cinder Cone, not only completely remoulds the surface but also pumps gigatonnes of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere.

218. VR46L
Quite a bit of precipation forecast for next 24 hrs!!!

Quoting trumpman84:


I think the better argument would be -- all human life would be long, long extinguished before we ever approached the atmospheric Co2 level of Venus considering CO2 is acutely toxic to humans at concentrations of 7-10%. I would venture to guess we couldn't live over a prolonged period of time in an atmosphere with over 1% or possibly lower.
True. Though an even better argument--well, statement--would be that all human life as we know it and civilization as we've built it will be massively disrupted long, long before CO2 concentrations become anywhere close to toxic levels. In fact, that's happening at this very moment...
220. wxmod
MODIS satellite photo of China today

What Will It Take to Solve Climate Change?
By David Biello | January 10, 2013

Australia had to add a new color to its weather maps this week. Meteorologists used royal purple to denote an off-the-charts high temperature of 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit), part of an unprecedented heat wave and ongoing wildfires occurring down under this month. On the other side of the globe, 2012 proved the hottest year on record in the contiguous U.S., surpassing the previous record-holder by a full degree F (0.6 deg C). In short, global warming is continuing to turn up the heat—so what are we going to do about it?

...
222. wxmod
MODIS satellite photo of India today

Link for #221

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/ 2013/01/10/what-will-it-take-to-solve-climate-chan ge/


....Or, as earth system scientist Stephen Davis of the University of California, Irvine, and lead author of the wedges reanalysis argues: "The only real solution to climate change is to stop dumping CO2 into the atmosphere altogether." If we want to begin to restrain global warming, we better get started - and soon.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
8:51 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (946 hPa) located at 17.2S 113.8E or 525 km north of Exmouth and 505 km northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop in coastal areas between Roebourne and Exmouth during this afternoon, then extend south to Coral Bay on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast. Destructive winds with gusts to 140 kilometers could develop in the Exmouth area on Sunday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast. Very destructive winds with gusts to 250 kilometers per hour are possible near the cyclone centre however it is now unlikely that these winds will occur on the coast.

On Sunday winds will ease along the west Pilbara coast and gales may extend south to Carnarvon.

Thunderstorm activity will increase about the Pilbara coast today with isolated heavy rainfall and squalls possible. This activity will extend into the western and southern Gascoyne over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight, and during Saturday with flooding of low lying coastal areas. A very dangerous storm tide is possible Saturday night if the center of the cyclone passes close to the coast, however it is now unlikely to occur.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Roebourne to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.2S 113.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.0S 112.4E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.7S 111.3E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 23.9S 109.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
The system intensified overnight and recent microwave has shown increasing intensity. Position is based on satellite and microwave imagery. Dvorak embedded center pattern gives a DT of 5.0 but with MET and pattern giving 5.5, CI has been set at 5.5. CIMSS AMSU was 107 knots but is now back to 95 knots [1 minute average]. Instensity stands at 90 knots.

Motion has been southwest at around 7 knots. It is expected to continue with all models and most EC consensus members taking the system west of Exmouth. A severe coastal impact in the west Pilbara is becoming less and less likely.

Northeasterly shear of about 14 knots is expected to continue. Given that the system is moving south southwesterly at around 7 knots, the storm relative shear is low. The system should continue to intensity but remain a category 4 system. It should then start weakening as it moves into increasing shear and over colder water when it gets south of 21.0S. This also corresponds to when EC and ACCESS-TC start weakening the system.
Aussie - Is that a cold front coming thru? Only 115f?
Beautiful pictures, Aussie!
227. wxmod
MODIS satellite photo of Australia today

228. wxmod
MODIS satellite photo of the gulf of Mexico, etc.


Quoting Dakster:
Aussie - Is that a cold front coming thru? Only 115f?

You mean the cold front that came through last Wednesday morning. It's effects have been and gone.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Beautiful pictures, Aussie!

As soon as I saw them I knew I just had to share them.
231. wxmod
Close view of the gulf of Mexico. MODIS

232. vanwx
If this arctic outfall happens and gets worse; there will be a lot of people missing work next week. Between the flu and bad tires, black ice,downed utilities, frozen water, it will be good to see how good your back-up plan b is. I must pick up more stove fuel. Best-o-luck to all you prepared ones out there.
At least the trolls will be well fed.
Red Centre warned of worsening fire danger

The worst of the fire danger in central Australia may be yet to come, with the weather bureau predicting extreme conditions this weekend.

Bushfires NT director Mick Ayre says landholders must act immediately to do what they can to protect lives and property.

He says extra crews from the Darwin area are helping relieve local firefighters in the Red Centre who are exhausted from battling blazes at Wattarka National Park, Pine Hill and Ross River.

"The conditions are going to be considerably more severe than what we have seen in the last few days," he said.

The weather bureau says the heatwave will continue to push the mercury up until at least next week.

Forecaster Ashley Patterson says Kintore, about 500 kilometres west of Alice Springs, is looking to hit 44 degrees Celsius, and Yulara and Alice Springs 45 degrees.

Winds are also expected to strengthen over the weekend.


© ABC 2013
Gulf waits for late monsoon

The weather bureau says it could be another month until any substantial rain hits Queensland's north west and Gulf regions.

Senior forecaster Brian Rolstone says the monsoonal trough is still a long way north, sitting around Papua New Guinea

He says temperatures are going to remain hot in the short term with most of north and central west Queensland expecting temperatures above 40 this weekend.

"Now and then you'll get a day or two of thunderstorms usually forming a band from the north west down to the south east but it hasn't been a great deal of that sort of activity," he said.

"So for a proper wet season we've really got to wait probably another month and eventually we'll get the monsoon trough down into the southern Gulf.

"Usually with that there's a monsoonal low then there'll be some rain."


© ABC 2013
If your wondering why TC Narelle has not "popped out" an eye. Look at the slight shear that's affecting her.

Eye definitely clearing now:



237. wxmod
Beijing air quality hit 492 micrograms per cubic metre of pm 2.5 ! That's amazing. How long will they survive??
Here are a few of today's readings from the US embassy in Beijing.

#
4h BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-11-2013 06:00; PM2.5; 408.0; 439; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


#
5h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-11-2013 05:00; PM2.5; 429.0; 453; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


#
6h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-11-2013 04:00; PM2.5; 402.0; 435; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


#
7h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-11-2013 03:00; PM2.5; 416.0; 444; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


#
8h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-11-2013 02:00; PM2.5; 418.0; 446; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)

#
9h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-11-2013 01:00; PM2.5; 425.0; 450; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


#
10h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-11-2013 00:00; PM2.5; 434.0; 456; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)

#
11h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-10-2013 23:00; PM2.5; 488.0; 492; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


#
12h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-10-2013 22:00; PM2.5; 486.0; 490; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


#
13h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-10-2013 21:00; PM2.5; 486.0; 490; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


#
14h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-10-2013 20:00; PM2.5; 421.0; 448; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)

#
15h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-10-2013 19:00; PM2.5; 389.0; 426; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)

#
16h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-10-2013 18:00; PM2.5; 449.0; 466; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


#
17h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-10-2013 17:00; PM2.5; 395.0; 430; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)

#
18h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-10-2013 16:00; PM2.5; 279.0; 329; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Temperature Update, This is for tomorrow(Saturday).



Hi Mate...

117F...HOT
Quoting AussieStorm:
Photo's off the coast of Onslow in NW Western Australia. It was a mixture of sand and water.







Pictures: Jeff Miles


those clouds look scary to me...DOOM IS COMING! lol
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM JST January 11 2013
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East of Mindanao

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 8.1N 129.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. This depression is reported as moving north at 7 knots.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That's pretty WARM. Will be interesting to see what the SST are in April/May
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


those colds look scary to me...DOOM IS COMING! lol


Link
I hope 2013 rainfall will be ABOVE average :)
Great images Aussie, thanks for sharing them. Well, I'm off for Miami in a few hours. Attending the Everglades Coalition meeting. The movers and shakers in the water and everglades business are there, lots of info lectures, field trips. Have a nice safe weekend everyone, I'll be back home Sunday sometime.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Link


good you understood my terrible cloud spelling
VirginIslandsVisitor,here is the latest discussion from the San Juan NWS. Good news for you about the winds diminushing.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1004 PM AST THU JAN 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL
UNDERGO SIG AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS AND HELP DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVENING. COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
THEN PREVAIL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN OVERNIGHT WITH STRATUS DECK
OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAIN RANGE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY DAWN.
WHILE FRI WILL START PRETTY CLEAR...CLOUDS WILL ROLL IN QUICKLY
AROUND MIDDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BEGINS TO LIFT/WEAKEN. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAWN
SAT AS FRONTAL ZONE PUSHES SOUTH OF 20N. CLOUDS THICKEN RAPIDLY
SAT MORNING WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE FREQ/NMRS. WHILE THIS WILL
THE BEST MOISTURE THAT WE HAVE SEEN SINCE CHRISTMAS DAY...FRONTAL
ZONE WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY LIMITING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUN WITH COOL AND VERY DRY AIR
IN ITS WAKE. AIR IS SO DRY WITH THIS NEW AIR MASS THAT EVEN CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
PRECIP FOR SUN WITH VERY LITTLE SKY CVR.

UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL ESTABLISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH
DIGS FURTHER INTO THE CNTRL TROP ATLC. HOWEVER...COOL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT OCCASIONAL CLOUD CLUSTERS AND VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE BUT SOUTH OF
THE CORDILLERA THINGS WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY DUE TO ADIABATIC
WARMING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE USVI TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARES EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. WIND WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FRI AS WINDS DIMINISH BUT
THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS VERY LARGE NNE SWELLS BUILD
ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES SAT THROUGH MON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA TOMORROW
WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE RISK ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH. OVERCAST SKIES AND LIKELY SHOWERS SAT WILL KEEP THE FIRE
RISK TO A MINIMUM. VERY DRY AIR SUN WITH LITTLE CLOUDS AND VERY
LOW HUMIDITIES SUN WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE RISK ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN
ON SAT COULD MITIGATE/TEMPER THE FIRE RISK SOMEWHAT. UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND CLOUDS
SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA UNDER A DOWNSLOPE NORTHEAST FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 82 77 80 / 20 30 50 50
STT 76 82 76 83 / 20 10 20 40
Quoting AussieStorm:
Couple's Bushfire Action Plan helps save home


Great story on being prepared ..
Quoting trumpman84:


I think the better argument would be -- all human life would be long, long extinguished before we ever approached the atmospheric Co2 level of Venus considering CO2 is acutely toxic to humans at concentrations of 7-10%. I would venture to guess we couldn't live over a prolonged period of time in an atmosphere with over 1% or possibly lower.


Trumpman and others commenting on Venus,

I probably remember only enough of Dr. Raymond Pierrehumbert's book "Principles of Planetary Climate" to be misleading but I believe he is mainly concerned with Earth's water and water vapor at the present time and degree of heating. Water vapor is a very strongly positive feedback to heating and there is plenty of water on the planet to vaporize and cause runaway heating. It doesn't take too much more heating before this becomes a great concern. After the planet gets very hot the water vapor either escapes from the atmosphere in the molecular form or disassociates and the hydrogen escapes. Either way the planet becomes a desert and such a hot one that the carbon in the rock escapes to create the Venetian atmosphere. But of course, trumpman is correct; humans have long since been removed from the planet they helped destroy.

Our planetary limits are really quite restricted and it won't take much change in the climate to remove 99% of human life. The last 1% will hang on in the deep caves for a few more centuries eating the life forms that have survived in there with them.

For me, I'm very glad I'm an old guy and won't see any of the real bad stuff.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
What a beautiful storm...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The eye is gradually popping out.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Looks like Narelle is ingesting dry air.

Quoting indianrivguy:
Great images Aussie, thanks for sharing them. Well, I'm off for Miami in a few hours. Attending the Everglades Coalition meeting. The movers and shakers in the water and everglades business are there, lots of info lectures, field trips. Have a nice safe weekend everyone, I'll be back home Sunday sometime.

Enjoy your trip mate, Maybe do a blog on what you learnt on your trip, I would love to read all about it.
Angela Fritz ‏@WunderAngela
Big flooding in Louisiana and around the northwest Gulf Coast this week

LA Governor Declares Statewide Emergency
Quoting AussieStorm:

Looks like Narelle is ingesting dry air.


Narelle has dry air surrounding it, but the cyclone itself is in a very strong moisture bubble. Dry air isn't going to get to its core like that.

The eye continues to clear too. Not sure what you're seeing.
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
Narelle on verge of major cyclone status -- likely rapidly intensify to 115-125 knots or equivalent to Category 4

Scott D ‏@gsdavo1975
@RyanMaue Isn't Cat 3+ Hurricane classified as a Major?

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
@gsdavo1975 yes, you are confused with my usage of the two hyphens --

Scott D ‏@gsdavo1975
@RyanMaue http://www.greenskychaser.com/blog/wp-content/uplo ads/2010/03/WorldwideCycloneRatings.png



Scott D ‏@gsdavo1975
@RyanMaue As you can see I wasn't confused Cat 3+ Hurricane is classified as a Major from what your saying Narelle would be a Cat 4 Hurricane.

A beta model page is now running select numerical model products for a few regions. The 00z GFS is currently coming in. The GEM, GFS ensembles, and GEM ensembles will follow later tonight.

Feel free to check it out:

Numerical Model Guidance
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Narelle has dry air surrounding it, but the cyclone itself is in a very strong moisture bubble. Dry air isn't going to get to its core like that.

The eye continues to clear too. Not sure what you're seeing.

Watch the white area, it shrinks. TC Narelle is ingesting dust from land which is drying her out, that area is synonymous for it. That area is baking hot and has been that way for the last 2 months.

Current rains from TC Narelle


from Learmonth Radar
@Seanberry7news - Sean Berry
Tarcutta main street as fire approaches


Smoke from the Oura Fire

Video
Quoting AussieStorm:
Expert: Great Lakes Ice Lagging



Surface temps are staying well above average just like last year. Here's Lake Michigan over 2012:

Alabama Power ‏@alabamapower
High winds responsible for over 17,000 outages statewide; 10,000 in Bham Division and 6500 in Western Division.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
11:53 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================================

At 11:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (946 hPa) located at 17.4S 113.6E or 505 km north of Exmouth and 505 km northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour could develop in coastal areas between Roebourne and Exmouth during this afternoon, then extend south to Coral Bay on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase further during Saturday about the west Pilbara coast. Destructive winds with gusts to 140 kilometers could develop in the Exmouth area on Sunday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Carnarvon and winds along the west Pilbara coast should ease from the east later in the day

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast during Sunday and Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Roebourne to Coral Bay, including Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon
Quoting Levi32:
A beta model page is now running select numerical model products for a few regions. The 00z GFS is currently coming in. The GEM, GFS ensembles, and GEM ensembles will follow later tonight.

Feel free to check it out:

Numerical Model Guidance
Is like a new toy for me lol.
Quoting Levi32:
A beta model page is now running select numerical model products for a few regions. The 00z GFS is currently coming in. The GEM, GFS ensembles, and GEM ensembles will follow later tonight.

Feel free to check it out:

Numerical Model Guidance

I have to say this is really nice and I can't wait for more to come.
279. skook
By JULIE WATSON | Associated Press

SAN DIEGO (AP) — Strawberry growers covered their crops while San Diego zookeepers turned on heaters for the chimpanzees as Southern California braced for a cold snap that was expected to drop temperatures to a six-year low.

Forecasters warned that a low pressure trough sinking over San Diego County and parts of neighboring Orange County could keep nightly temperatures below freezing in coastal areas, the low deserts and inland valleys, threatening orange, avocado orchards and other sensitive plants. The coldest nights were expected to hit Friday and Saturday.

Farmers were prepared to pull out giant fans to circulate the frosty air and keep it from settling on their citrus trees, said Eric Larson of the San Diego County Farm Bureau. Other growers were placing soft cloth over their strawberries and flowers. The National Weather Service predicted overnight lows in the 20s in the lower deserts and inland valleys and 30s along the coast.

Link


I wonder if this thing in the middle atlantic is going to have a tropical characteristics
281. skook
Lowest maximum temperature records broken or tied on Jan 10 2013 ...

Location new record old record period of record

Alpine 48 51 in 1974 1952
Ramona 52 56 in 1993 1974
Vista 54 55 in 1974 1957
282. wxmod
This is Australia, hot off the press, beamed from MODIS Terra just a few minutes ago. What is notable here is that YOU DON"T SEE ANY FIRES. Fires can be very scary if they are near your home, but as far as global events go, the Australia fires are small potatoes. Compare this photo with my earlier posting of the smog in China where thick smog covers almost the entire country. China smog is off the charts and is getting WORSE.

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
11:53 AM WST January 11 2012


The system intensified overnight and recent microwave has shown increasing
intensity. Position is based on satellite and microwave imagery. Dvorak embedded
centre pattern gives a DT of 5.0 but with MET and pattern giving 5.5, CI has
been set at 5.5. CIMSS AMSU was 107 knots but is now back to 95 knots [1 minute
average]. Instensity stands at 90 knots.

Motion has been SW at around 7 knots. It is expected to continue with all models
and most EC consensus members taking the system west of Exmouth. A severe
coastal impact in the west Pilbara is becoming less and less likely.

Northeasterly shear of about 14 knots is expected to continue. Given that the
system is moving south southwesterly at around 7 knots, the storm relative shear
is low. The system should continue to intensity but remain a catergory 4 system.
It should then start weakening as it moves into increasing shear and over colder
water when it gets south of 21S. This also corresponds to when EC and ACCESS-TC
start weakening the system.
DHAKA: A cold snap which saw temperatures drop yesterday to their lowest point in Bangladesh’s post-independence history has killed around 80 people, officials said.

The weather office said the lowest temperature was recorded at three degrees Celsius in the northern town of Syedpur and the Red Crescent said hospitals were packed with patients suffering respiratory illness.

Shah Alam, deputy head of the weather office, said the last time the temperature had dropped below three degrees Celsius was in February 1968 when Bangladesh was still part of Pakistan.

“The temperature is the lowest in Bangladesh’s history,” he said.

The Red Crescent Society said impoverished rural areas had been worst hit as many people could not afford warm clothing or heating.

“They are not prepared for such extreme weather. Many could not even go to work,” the society’s general-secretary Abu Bakar said.

“According to the reports of our district offices and local administrations about 80 people have died due to cold-related diseases such as respiratory problems, pneumonia and cough,” Bakar added.
Cat 4( Cat 3 SSHWS) TC Narelle
286. wxmod
This is todays 24 hour average air quality for Beijing, China, reported from the US Embassy there.


BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

01-10-2013 12:00 to 01-11-2013 11:59; PM2.5 24hr avg; 379.0; 420; Hazardous
Re: Post 248

TropicsweatherPR:

Thanks so much for looking out for me. You've no idea how much it is appreciated! We just might get some fishing in soon!!

Lindy
Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate



Isaac Held of NOAA took this one step further. He described how loss of ozone in the stratosphere could alter the dynamics of the atmosphere below it. "The cooling of the polar stratosphere associated with loss of ozone increases the horizontal temperature gradient near the tropopause,” he explains. “This alters the flux of angular momentum by mid-latitude eddies. [Angular momentum is important because] the angular momentum budget of the troposphere controls the surface westerlies." In other words, solar activity felt in the upper atmosphere can, through a complicated series of influences, push surface storm tracks off course.

Indeed, Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) presented persuasive evidence that solar variability is leaving an imprint on climate, especially in the Pacific. According to the report, when researchers look at sea surface temperature data during sunspot peak years, the tropical Pacific shows a pronounced La Nina-like pattern, with a cooling of almost 1o C in the equatorial eastern Pacific. In addition, "there are signs of enhanced precipitation in the Pacific ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone ) and SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) as well as above-normal sea-level pressure in the mid-latitude North and South Pacific," correlated with peaks in the sunspot cycle.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Freakish Dust Storm Sweeps Over Western Australia



Aussie,

Those pictures you posted earlier were incredible. I saw that they were taken from a boat. I can tell you that if I'd been on that boat and had seen that, I would have been hightailing it out of there! Unbelievable pics!


Lindy
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


Aussie,

Those pictures you posted earlier were incredible. I saw that they were taken from a boat. I can tell you that if I'd been on that boat and had seen that, I would have been hightailing it out of there! Unbelievable pics!


Lindy

Your not the only one that would hightail it outa there, I would too after I took a few thousand pics. lol
Quoting AussieStorm:


Your not the only one that would hightail it outa there, I would too after I took a few thousand pics. lol

Also video too. Photo's just wouldn't do it justice.
Fire Weather Warning
for the Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Monaro Alpine, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, Northern Slopes, North Western, Upper Central West Plains, Lower Central West Plains, Southern Slopes, Eastern Riverina, Southern Riverina and Northern Riverina fire areas
Issued at 3:55 pm EDT on Friday 11 January 2013.
Weather Situation
Hot, dry and windy conditions are expected to affect the NSW Ranges, adjacent Slopes and the southern inland on Friday and extend to more parts of the state on Saturday.

For the rest of Friday 11 January:
Extreme Fire Danger in the following fire area:
Southern Riverina
Severe Fire Danger in the following fire areas:
Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Monaro Alpine, Southern Ranges, Central Ranges, Northern Slopes, North Western, Upper Central West Plains, Lower Central West Plains, Southern Slopes, Eastern Riverina and Northern Riverina
For Saturday 12 January:
Extreme Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire areas:
Monaro Alpine and Southern Ranges
The NSW Rural Fire Service warns that any bush fire that starts has the potential to cause loss of life and destroy many homes.

Severe Fire Danger is forecast for the following fire areas:
Greater Hunter, Greater Sydney Region, Illawarra/Shoalhaven, Central Ranges, Lower Central West Plains, Southern Slopes and Eastern Riverina
The NSW Rural Fire Service warns that any bush fire that starts has the potential to threaten lives and destroy homes.
Police presence on the Tasman Peninsula

The search of properties affected by fire on the Tasman Peninsula is now complete.

Since last Friday night, emergency services teams have searched 1040 properties in the Forcett Fire zone. It’s been determined the number of homes and businesses severely damaged or destroyed is in the vicinity of 200.

There were no human remains located in the searches.


Up to 70 Tasmania Police, Victoria Police, Australian Defence Force and SES personnel were involved in the searches each day.

Police have not received any missing person reports and have no serious concerns for welfare arising from any enquires made with the National Registration Inquiry System.

The Tasmania Fire Service will continue to undertake detailed damage assessments and investigations.

The contingent of 20 Victoria Police officers who assisted with searches and general duties on the Tasman Peninsula will return to Victoria tomorrow morning.

Tasmania Police will continue to provide a high visibility presence on the Tasman Peninsula over the coming weeks.

It is important for residents returning to their homes to know they have access to police assistance if they require it. Police are also providing additional patrols in the vicinity of fire damaged properties.

Police will also be undertaking additional patrols on the Arthur Highway to ensure the safety of motorists. The Highway is subject to a 60km/h speed limit as crews work to restore services to the area.

Drivers are reminded concentrate on the road as it is easy to be distracted when driving through areas affected by the fire.
Not what I'd want to see in the distance.


Cobbler Road (Yass) Fire
Quoting AussieStorm:
Police presence on the Tasman Peninsula

The search of properties affected by fire on the Tasman Peninsula is now complete.

Since last Friday night, emergency services teams have searched 1040 properties in the Forcett Fire zone. It’s been determined the number of homes and businesses severely damaged or destroyed is in the vicinity of 200.

There were no human remains located in the searches.




Amazing there hasn't been any loss of life !!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Expert: Great Lakes Ice Lagging

The Great Lakes. I have sailed all of them except Lake Michigan. Definitely one of the coolest things I have ever seen. Saw the Aurora Borealis...Beautiful stuff. It looked like curtains from heaven hovering over us. In 1989, I actually saw it in Florida..A rare event indeed..
Models still showing Andrea?
lake Michigan is 28 inches below average and only two inches above its 1960 low point ..
Clearing her eye Narelle
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Models still showing Andrea?


I... must have missed this.
Upon further examination, it appears most of the global models do indeed show a strengthening surface low over the central Atlantic moving southward over the next few days, presumably in response to that large upper low off the Canadian Maritimes. However, the limited data available from FSU's Cyclone Phase Diagrams suggests that this low will be non-tropical.

500 mb vorticity fields from the GFS indicate that this low, should it exist, will be collocated with a vigorous upper low, suggesting that any hypothetical development would be subtropical.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Models still showing Andrea?


00z GFS run shows a potential subtropical cyclone forming over the central Atlantic by early to middle of next week. Recent model runs show consistency of this. 12z ECMWF run is also hinting this as well as other global models. We must keep an eye on it if the models continue to show consistency.

What if I had to do TCRs for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season when I still haven't even finished my TCRs for the 2012 season? Like, whoa.
Cyclone Narelle is looking beautiful on visible imagery:

This is not an accurate distance, but I can dig how they show the the Earths magnetic field in action.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Upon further examination, it appears most of the global models do indeed show a strengthening surface low over the central Atlantic moving southward over the next few days, presumably in response to that large upper low off the Canadian Maritimes. However, the limited data available from FSU's Cyclone Phase Diagrams suggests that this low will be non-tropical.

500 mb vorticity fields from the GFS indicate that this low, should it exist, will be collocated with a vigorous upper low, suggesting that any hypothetical development would be subtropical.


Clearly cold-core (see the thickness contours):

Quoting Levi32:


Clearly cold-core (see the thickness contours):

Looks like we will see some of that arctic air.
Decisions in an emergency

Residents in Nettlefold Road, north of Launceston, had minutes to make decisions earlier this week when a small fire quickly became an emergency warning. An extreme fire can break out anywhere, and Tasmania's recent hot and dry conditions have shown the need for a bushfire survival plan for people throughout the state. The Tasmanian Fire Service will reiterate that information, with explanations of the alerts and warnings via advertisments in this weekend's newspapers.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Cool stuff..:)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Decisions in an emergency

Residents in Nettlefold Road, north of Launceston, had minutes to make decisions earlier this week when a small fire quickly became an emergency warning. An extreme fire can break out anywhere, and Tasmania's recent hot and dry conditions have shown the need for a bushfire survival plan for people throughout the state. The Tasmanian Fire Service will reiterate that information, with explanations of the alerts and warnings via advertisments in this weekend's newspapers.
I have seen some bad fires in Florida, but nothing like the pics you posted. 85 and 86 were bad years for us. We evenFirefighter, Ranger Held In Brush Fires
April 26, 1985|By United Press International

..Excerpt..FORT MYERS forest ranger and a volunteer firefighter have been charged with setting 28 brush fires north of Immokalee last fall, police said.

Garry Barfield, 28, and John Hunt, 36, both of Immokalee, were being held Thursday in Collier County Jail on charges of willful burning of land.
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Bond for each was set at $50,000.

Barfield had worked for one year at a state Division of Forestry fire tower west of Immokalee. He was fired as a result of the charges.

Hunt is a truck driver who had been a member of Immokalee's volunteer fire department.

State fire investigator Ed Jones said one of the men told him they set the fires so they could help in the firefighting effort.

''They enjoyed the fire trucks,'' Jones said. ''They set the fires so they could drive the trucks and help put them out.''

bad people that were hired to help us make matters worse...
The eye has become less cloud-filled over the past several hours. Expect Narelle to intensify further in the next 24 to 36 hours before weakening in unfavorable conditions with high vertical shear and cold waters. It is also forecast to move south-southwestward as it remains away from Australia's west coast. However, they would still get some effects of the cyclone, including rain and strong waves.

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY FOUR (05U)
3:00 PM WST January 11 2013
=========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle (947 hPa) located at 17.6S 113.4E or 495 km north northwest of Exmouth and 810 km north of Carnarvon has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
200 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometers per hour could develop in coastal areas between Mardie and Exmouth this evening, then extend south to Coral Bay later on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase in the Exmouth area on Saturday with damaging wind gusts to 125 kilometers per hour possible overnight Saturday if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Carnarvon and winds along the west Pilbara coast should ease from the east later in the day.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark tonight and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast later Saturday and into early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
======================
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Mardie to Coral Bay, including Onslow and Exmouth.

Tropical Cyclone Watch
======================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.4S 112.1E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.4S 111.6E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 21.4S 110.4E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 25.1S 108.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has intensified during the day with a definitive eye now evident on visible and infrared imagery. Intensity of 90 knots based on the three-hour average Dvorak DT of 5.5 [eye pattern], although the latest [0530UTC] IR image could indicate a DT as high as 6.5 [W surround, OW/W eye addition]. FT/CI =5.5.

Further intensification is forecast with low [system relative] wind shear and the system could reach category 5 intensity overnight based on its current trend. The cyclone should gradually weaken as it encounters cooler sea surface temperatures from late Sunday and Monday but may remain at cyclone intensity to Tuesday well off the west coast.

Expected motion persists to the southwest for the next 24 hours and then a more south southwest track is likely in the following days. This leaves the cyclone sufficiently off the coast that coastal areas will only experience the outer edge of the cyclone and a severe impact is not expected.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast tonight and Saturday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast on the weekend and into early next week.
Quoting hydrus:
I have seen some bad fires in Florida, but nothing like the pics you posted. 85 and 86 were bad years for us. We evenFirefighter, Ranger Held In Brush Fires
April 26, 1985|By United Press International

..Excerpt..FORT MYERS forest ranger and a volunteer firefighter have been charged with setting 28 brush fires north of Immokalee last fall, police said.

Garry Barfield, 28, and John Hunt, 36, both of Immokalee, were being held Thursday in Collier County Jail on charges of willful burning of land.
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Bond for each was set at $50,000.

Barfield had worked for one year at a state Division of Forestry fire tower west of Immokalee. He was fired as a result of the charges.

Hunt is a truck driver who had been a member of Immokalee's volunteer fire department.

State fire investigator Ed Jones said one of the men told him they set the fires so they could help in the firefighting effort.

''They enjoyed the fire trucks,'' Jones said. ''They set the fires so they could drive the trucks and help put them out.''

bad people that were hired to help us make matters worse...


Hope they get the jail time they deserve !! a couple of years ago they caught a volunteer fireman setting barn fires so he could fight them .. think he got at least 7 years before he will be out .. but he caused several million dollars of damage .. these old barns go up very fast .. the timbers are so dry ..
Quoting hydrus:
I have seen some bad fires in Florida, but nothing like the pics you posted. 85 and 86 were bad years for us. We evenFirefighter, Ranger Held In Brush Fires
April 26, 1985|By United Press International

..Excerpt..FORT MYERS forest ranger and a volunteer firefighter have been charged with setting 28 brush fires north of Immokalee last fall, police said.

Garry Barfield, 28, and John Hunt, 36, both of Immokalee, were being held Thursday in Collier County Jail on charges of willful burning of land.
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Bond for each was set at $50,000.

Barfield had worked for one year at a state Division of Forestry fire tower west of Immokalee. He was fired as a result of the charges.

Hunt is a truck driver who had been a member of Immokalee's volunteer fire department.

State fire investigator Ed Jones said one of the men told him they set the fires so they could help in the firefighting effort.

''They enjoyed the fire trucks,'' Jones said. ''They set the fires so they could drive the trucks and help put them out.''

bad people that were hired to help us make matters worse...


Same happened here back in 2009 down in Victoria, One of the fires that killed many people and destroyed 100's of houses was lite by a volunteer firefighter. I am not sure what his sentence was but it was many years in gaol. Today young kids have been setting fires to grass areas all over Sydney's west, Most have been caught, Thankfully none of the fires did any damage.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
15:00 PM JST January 11 2013
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East of Mindanao

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.4N 128.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. This depression is reported as moving north northwest at 14 knots.
good morning folks!..cant believe the temps here...


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 5:44 pm WST on Friday 11 January 2013

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Mardie to Coral Bay.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Carnarvon.

At 5:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle, Category 4 was estimated to be
475 kilometres north northwest of Exmouth and
790 kilometres north of Carnarvon and
moving southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to continue moving to the southwest
and pass west of the Northwest Cape over the weekend.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour could develop in coastal areas
between Mardie and Exmouth this evening, then extend south to Coral Bay later
on Saturday.

Winds are likely to increase in the Exmouth area on Saturday with damaging wind
gusts to 125 kilometres per hour possible overnight Saturday if the cyclone
takes a track closer to the coast.

On Sunday gales may extend south to Carnarvon and winds along the west Pilbara
coast should ease from the east later in the day.

Thunderstorm activity in western parts of the Pilbara could be squally with
isolated heavy falls. This activity will extend into far northwestern Gascoyne
over the weekend.

Tides along the west Pilbara coast are likely to rise above the normal high
tide mark tonight and Saturday night with flooding of low lying coastal areas
possible. Higher than normal tides should extend along the west coast later
Saturday and into early next week.

DFES-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: Coastal and island communities from Mardie to Coral Bay including
Onslow and Exmouth should be taking precautions.
ALL CLEAR: People in the Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha and Dampier
area are advised that the threat of strong winds is no longer expected.
Communities between Coral Bay and Carnarvon should listen for the next advice.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.8 degrees South 112.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 942 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm WST Friday 11 January.


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0727 UTC 11/01/2013
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Identifier: 05U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.6S
Longitude: 113.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 947 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 200 nm [370 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS SST:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
12: 11/1800: 18.4S 112.1E: 045 [080]: 100 [185]: 930
24: 12/0600: 19.4S 111.6E: 070 [130]: 105 [195]: 925
36: 12/1800: 20.3S 111.0E: 090 [165]: 105 [195]: 924
48: 13/0600: 21.4S 110.4E: 110 [200]: 105 [195]: 925
60: 13/1800: 22.9S 109.6E: 130 [235]: 080 [150]: 950
72: 14/0600: 25.1S 108.8E: 145 [270]: 050 [095]: 974
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has intensified during the day with a definitive
eye now evident on visible and infra-red imagery. Intensity of 90 knots based on
the three-hour average Dvorak DT of 5.5 [eye pattern], although the latest
[0530UTC] IR image could indicate a DT as high as 6.5 [W surround, OW/W eye
addition]. FT/CI =5.5.

Further intensification is forecast with low [system relative] wind shear and
the system could reach category 5 intensity overnight based on its current
trend. The cyclone should gradually weaken as it encounters cooler SSTs from
late Sunday and Monday but may remain at cyclone intensity to Tuesday well off
the west coast.

Expected motion persists to the southwest for the next 24 hours and then a more
south southwest track is likely in the following days. This leaves the cyclone
sufficiently off the coast that coastal areas will only experience the outer
edge of the cyclone and a severe impact is not expected.

Higher than normal tides are likely about the west Pilbara coast tonight and
Saturday, with a shelf wave moving down the west coast on the weekend and into
early next week.





Narelle put on quite a show last night, up to 110kts according to JTWC. It's running out of time to strengthen further, however.

The sunspot I mentioned yesterday, 1654, continued to grow in size and magnetic complexity last night, and it produced an M class solar flare, along with another almost M class solar flare. It's still a couple days away from being in direct line with Earth, but definitely something to keep an eye on.

Good morning, everyone, evening, Aussie. Looks like more rain moving in possibly tonight. We're still under flood warnings from this weeks rain. And it'll be next Thursday before all the rain stops.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone, evening, Aussie. Looks like more rain moving in possibly tonight. We're still under flood warnings from this weeks rain. And it'll be next Thursday before all the rain stops.
Good Morning. Are you complaining about it yet?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Good Morning. Are you complaining about it yet?


Nope, no complaints, means I don't have to go out and water flowers. *G*
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Nope, no complaints, means I don't have to go out and water flowers. *G*

Well I just used the water from my kids bath tonight to water my garden. It seems such a waste to let it flow out to sea.
Good morning everyone,

Usually in the middle of January, if the radar looked like this there was a snowstorm impacting the area. Not today, this is all rain with temps getting into the mid 50s today and near 60F tomorrow.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
309 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

...UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
SUPPORT STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SINKS SOUTH TO
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH NIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST COAST...WHILE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OVER
THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO
THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS AS AN UPPER RIDGE REACHES FROM CUBA TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS
THE PLAINS...A FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE TX
COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ALONG LATITUDE 30
NORTH DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF REGION AND SE U.S. WITH TIME THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY WORKS EAST AND NORTHEAST...FLATTENING THE
UPPER RIDGE AND SAGGING THE FRONT INTO THE GULF COAST/SE U.S.
STATES. THE FLATTENING RIDGE WILL KEEP THE SURFACE HIGH NEARLY IN
PLACE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE TIME WITH A DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS. THIS KEEPS THE
FORECAST DRY AND WARM WITH MAINLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR
NORTH ON THU WHEN THE APPROACHING FRONT PROVIDES ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND ENERGY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO PATCHY BR AND LOW CLOUDS BY 08Z-09Z
WITH MVFR/LCL IFR THAT CONTINUE UNTIL 13Z-14Z. VFR THEN RETURNS
WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND EAST AND SE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY TODAY WILL SINK SOUTH TO OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE OVER
THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE
SURGES UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWER WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

TAMPA INTERNATIONAL 83 SET BACK IN 1989
SAINT PETERSBURG CLEARWATER 79 SET BACK 2008
SARASOTA/BRADENTON 84 SET BACK IN 1991
LAKELAND 84 SET BACK IN 1993
BROOKSVILLE 80 SET BACK IN 2008
FORT MYERS 86 SET BACK IN 1975

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 64 81 65 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 82 63 82 62 / 10 10 10 10
GIF 82 61 82 62 / 10 10 10 10
SRQ 80 62 80 62 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 82 56 82 56 / 10 10 10 10
SPG 79 65 78 65 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE





Time to head for school, but it's jeans Friday, so more relaxed day for teachers. Everyone have a great Friday!

Aussie, love the idea of the bath water, must remember that! Have a great Saturday and weekend!
322 AussieStorm: Seriously, this can not be true. 121.3F at Lihou Reef.

Don't see how it could be a good reading. The automated weather station is on an tiny islet with a maximum elevation of ~6metres(20feet) above sea level. And there ain't no place on the islet that's more than ~100metres(328feet) from the ocean

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

The US Department of Homeland Security warned Thursday that a flaw in
Java software is so dangerous that people should stop using it.

Corrected due to the Neapolitan's comment 334
ie It is strongly recommended that you disable Java PlugIn in your browser immediately.

Apparently the blackhats are placing malware ads (through the various ad farms) specifically targeting news and weather sites, along with the expectable "adults-only" sites.
Quoting aspectre:
>The US Department of Homeland Security warned Thursday that a flaw in
Java software is so dangerous that people should stop using it.
ie It is strongly recommended that you disable JavaScript in your browser applications immediately.

Apparently the blackhats are placing malware ads (through the various ad farms) specifically targeting news and weather sites, along with the expectable "adults-only" sites.
NO!! Javascript is not Java; in fact, the only thing they really have in common is two syllables. Disabling browser-side Javascript won't protect against any Java vulnerabilities, and will, in fact, render many/most websites (including much of this one) unusable. Disable the Java add-in, if you wish--but leave Javascript alone...
@NWSJacksonMS
Vicksburg airport set a record daily max rainfall of 5.37 inches yesterday which breaks the previous record of 2.10 inches set in 1968
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
@NWSJacksonMS
Vicksburg airport set a record daily max rainfall of 5.37 inches yesterday which breaks the previous record of 2.10 inches set in 1968




Just specifically for the date 1/10/13.



GFS at 48 hours....
Quoting Neapolitan:
NO!! Javascript is not Java; in fact, the only thing they really have in common is two syllables. Disabling browser-side Javascript won't protect against any Java vulnerabilities, and will, in fact, render many/most websites (including much of this one) unusable. Disable the Java add-in, if you wish--but leave Javascript alone...
does he mean like porno?
334 Neapolitan: NO!! Javascript is not Java; in fact, the only thing they really have in common is two syllables. Disabling browser-side Javascript won't protect against any Java vulnerabilities, browser-side Javascript won't protect against any Java vulnerabilities...

THANKS for the correction. Made the mistake of assuming "JAVA software" included all JAVA products.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Time to head for school, but it's jeans Friday, so more relaxed day for teachers. Everyone have a great Friday!

Aussie, love the idea of the bath water, must remember that! Have a great Saturday and weekend!

It was easy, Just put one end of the hose in the bath right beside the drain hole. secured it with the suction bath mat, put the hose out the window. went downstairs sucked on the other end for like 5 seconds and i could feel it coming down. The decent from the window upstairs created a vacuum which just kept the water flowing. I had so much I filled a watering can with what was left after giving the garden a good soaking for 5mins. All from slighty used kiddy bath water. Saved me from watering the garden. Now that the garden has had such a good soaking, it will hopefully withstand the 45C(113F) day predicted for later today,Saturday.
Quoting aspectre:
334 Neapolitan: NO!! Javascript is not Java; in fact, the only thing they really have in common is two syllables. Disabling browser-side Javascript won't protect against any Java vulnerabilities, browser-side Javascript won't protect against any Java vulnerabilities...

THANKS for the correction. Made the mistake of assuming "JAVA software" included all JAVA products.

I wish I could work out a way to stop getting junk emails to my hotmail junk mail box. I get about 100 a day. Big pain in the butt.
wow, im surprised the blog entry didnt contain any global warming propaganda. the last time i was here someone said that the reason it was snowing so much was because of the "warm" atmosphere making precipitation? wow! cant believe the stupidity and gullible sheeple nature of the population. im sure in the next couple of days, there will be an entry about the hot summer and widlfires in australia. meanwhile, middle east is under a winter weather advisory!!!

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57563258/rare -snow-shuts-down-jerusalem/
Quoting cantfoolme:
wow, im surprised the blog entry didnt contain any global warming propaganda. the last time i was here someone said that the reason it was snowing so much was because of the "warm" atmosphere making precipitation? wow! cant believe the stupidity and gullible sheeple nature of the population. im sure in the next couple of days, there will be an entry about the hot summer and widlfires in australia. meanwhile, middle east is under a winter weather advisory!!!

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57563258/rare -snow-shuts-down-jerusalem/


That's a good point you bring up. So far it has been propaganda free. And if there was propaganda, I would be the first one to counter it, believe me.

I tell ya, they will think of ANYTHING to justify their warming agenda and bashing of big energy. And these folks are customers of the "big bad machine". Makes you wonder where their credibility is....

Heat, cold, stratopheric warming, etc. It is all evidence that suits there agenda.

Sad, really.
344. VR46L
Good Morning..

Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image

Loop embedded


Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning..

Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image

Loop embedded




Morning, Liz.

Beautiful Image. Don't mind if I add that to my bookmarks.

:)

Quoting cantfoolme:
wow, im surprised the blog entry didnt contain any global warming propaganda. the last time i was here someone said that the reason it was snowing so much was because of the "warm" atmosphere making precipitation? wow! cant believe the stupidity and gullible sheeple nature of the population. im sure in the next couple of days, there will be an entry about the hot summer and widlfires in australia. meanwhile, middle east is under a winter weather advisory!!!

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57563258/rare -snow-shuts-down-jerusalem/


Oh, the irony! A warmer planet means more evaporation and more precipitation. That means more snow as well as rain. Even a sheep could understand it.
Quoting yonzabam:


Oh, the irony! A warmer planet means more evaporation and more precipitation. That means more snow as well as rain. Even a sheep could understand it.


You are not a sheep.
348. VR46L
Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning..

Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image

Loop embedded




Morning Ainslie

Not a problem at all
I am a bit of a satellite Junkie ...
Quoting VR46L:


Morning Ainslie

Not a problem at all
I am a bit of a satellite Junkie ...


Haha. You know, I noticed that!! I had a hunch back in August and September when all the blobs were posted by you. But now, I am 100% certain you like to keep an eye out on the clouds.

:)

Quoting cantfoolme:
wow, im surprised the blog entry didnt contain any global warming propaganda. the last time i was here someone said that the reason it was snowing so much was because of the "warm" atmosphere making precipitation? wow! cant believe the stupidity and gullible sheeple nature of the population. im sure in the next couple of days, there will be an entry about the hot summer and widlfires in australia. meanwhile, middle east is under a winter weather advisory!!!

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57563258/rare -snow-shuts-down-jerusalem/


To be fair, a warmer atmopshere holds more moisture which leads to more snow in the northern latitudes.

Also, a single snow event is not sufficient enough to support argument against AGW.

I am a skeptic of AGW, but making claims like that are akin to the people using the record warm year to support thier argument for AGW.
Quoting Neapolitan:
NO!! Javascript is not Java; in fact, the only thing they really have in common is two syllables. Disabling browser-side Javascript won't protect against any Java vulnerabilities, and will, in fact, render many/most websites (including much of this one) unusable. Disable the Java add-in, if you wish--but leave Javascript alone...


That is correct. Java and Javascript are similar in name but are completely different languages. A number of sites use Java (via applets) but most websites use some form of Javascript today.

The article is referring to a newly discovered bug in Java that could allow a malicious applet access to your computer. The type of exploit is referred to as a "0 day exploit", which refers to the fact that it was a recently discovered issue and hackers are taking advantage of it.

These types of exploits are not a new phenomena, and have occurred across many programming languages, databases, and operating systems. Usually, such exploits are patched pretty quickly. Until then, if you have a tendency to visit the shadier side of the net I would recommend disabling Java within your browser.
Quoting cantfoolme:
wow, im surprised the blog entry didnt contain any global warming propaganda. the last time i was here someone said that the reason it was snowing so much was because of the "warm" atmosphere making precipitation? wow! cant believe the stupidity and gullible sheeple nature of the population. im sure in the next couple of days, there will be an entry about the hot summer and widlfires in australia. meanwhile, middle east is under a winter weather advisory!!!

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57563258/rare -snow-shuts-down-jerusalem/

Check the blog Dr Masters wrote titled Historic heat wave brings Australia its hottest average temperature on record.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


To be fair, a warmer atmopshere holds more moisture which leads to more snow in the northern latitudes.

Also, a single snow event is not sufficient enough to support argument against AGW.

I am a skeptic of AGW, but making claims like that are akin to the people using the record warm year to support thier argument for AGW.


But Funnel, they do it all the time. They always use a single extreme weather event or even a year (2012, for instance) as sufficient evidence to support their extreme stance on thermodynamics.

Which is why it is nothing more than an agenda. Just like politics.

Sad.

ECMWF shows Andrea forming directly from the low:



GFS shows Andrea forming south of the low.

338 stormchaser43: does he mean like porno?

Nope. Those who click ads in porn sites or ads leading into porn sites are frankly too deliberately* ignorant to bother warning. Homeland Security says that malware-disguised-as-ads are being specifically targeted at news and weather sites.

* As in, ifn folks wanna play football in a well known minefield, there ain't a whole heck of a lot that warning them yet again would accomplish.
356. VR46L
Quoting FunnelVortex:
ECMWF shows Andrea forming directly from the low:



GFS shows Andrea forming south of the low.



You think so , I think its a mid lat Extrop storm that lost its way from their normal course ...
Quoting cantfoolme:
wow, im surprised the blog entry didnt contain any global warming propaganda.


Global warming is not propaganda. It is science, backed by petabytes of data and thousands of research papers. If you have a better theory and can prove it, by all means go ahead and get published.

the last time i was here someone said that the reason it was snowing so much was because of the "warm" atmosphere making precipitation? wow! cant believe the stupidity and gullible sheeple nature of the population.


From this, it is obvious you don't know the first thing about meteorology, let alone climatology. A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. More moisture means more snow in winter. In other words, you get larger snowfalls when temperatures are near freezing as opposed to 20 below. This basic physical concept has been known and understood for well over a century.

im sure in the next couple of days, there will be an entry about the hot summer and widlfires in australia. meanwhile, middle east is under a winter weather advisory!!!

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57563258/rare -snow-shuts-down-jerusalem/


Both are weather related topics and weather is influenced by climate. There have been several posts here and other respectable science oriented sites on how the changing climate is affecting the jetstream, which directly impacts weather. Regardless, direct attribution of any particular weather event is hard to establish.
Quoting VR46L:


You think so , I think its a mid lat Extrop storm that lost its way from their normal course ...


Extrop storms that wander into the tropics can spin up tropical, or subtropical cyclones.
359. ARiot
Quoting TomballTXPride:


But Funnel, they do it all the time. They always use a single extreme weather event or even a year (2012, for instance) as sufficient evidence to support their extreme stance on thermodynamics.

Which is why it is nothing more than an agenda. Just like politics.

Sad.



Wow, an agenda supported by thousands of scientists going back to the mid 1800s, supported by reams of empirical evidence, and borne out by observation.

What are some other sneaky agendas? Physics? I'm starting to suspect it's all politics too. Maybe we could get a committe formed to investige them too!
Quoting ARiot:


Wow, an agenda supported by thousands of scientists going back to the mid 1800s, supported by reams of empirical evidence, and borne out by observation.

What are some other sneaky agendas? Physics? I'm starting to suspect it's all politics too. Maybe we could get a committe formed to investige them too!


Nice try.

You forgot the massive ice age and global cooling predictions made by scientists in the wake of the cold periods in the 1970's.

Can't cherry pick, now. :)

Record high temps over central FL last few days
Quoting TomballTXPride:


That's a good point you bring up. So far it has been propaganda free. And if there was propaganda, I would be the first one to counter it, believe me.

I tell ya, they will think of ANYTHING to justify their warming agenda and bashing of big energy. And these folks are customers of the "big bad machine". Makes you wonder where their credibility is....

Heat, cold, stratopheric warming, etc. It is all evidence that suits there agenda.

Sad, really.


You're like a 5 year old claiming vehemently that the world is flat simply because you don't understand the science behind what makes the world round.

Instead of making up BS an hand waving away that which you don't understand (and making a fool of yourself in the process), you could actually try to read up and understand the actual science. There are countless papers on the topic, many layman sites, and even sites run by bona fide climate scientists. They answer all your questions and more. Nea, myself, and others have posted links to such information before (even links to model source and data sets) and yet you remain willfully ignorant on the topic.

Quoting TomballTXPride:


But Funnel, they do it all the time. They always use a single extreme weather event or even a year (2012, for instance) as sufficient evidence to support their extreme stance on thermodynamics.

Which is why it is nothing more than an agenda. Just like politics.

Sad.



No. No they don't. And once again you're just making up bovine excrement to suite YOUR agenda. I'd like for you to point to one peer reviewed scientific study that attempts to use just a single weather event to demonstrate the globe is warming or the climate is changing. You won't find one.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Nice try.

You forgot the massive ice age and global cooling predictions made by scientists in the wake of the cold periods in the 1970's.

Can't cherry pick, now. :)



LOL, this is where they usualy say, "It was rejected by scientists!"
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Nice try.

You forgot the massive ice age and global cooling predictions made by scientists in the wake of the cold periods in the 1970's.

Can't cherry pick, now. :)



Seriously, why do you keep posting this nonesense. Your "ice age" claims have been debunked repeatedly.

Link

And if that isn't good enough, you can go to Nature and other science periodical sites and search for the climate research of that era.
I have a agenda...It's called waiting for hurricane season.I rather here about this made up storm "Andrea" than all this arguing.
I never knew thermodynamics had an extreme agenda.

DOWN WITH ENTHALPY!!
Good Friday Weather World. Mid 40s here now, 75 this afternoon, maybe some more rain for my area by Saturday? Lake Travis went up 6 to 9 inches but still down 50 feet. Unreal how much rain La. is getting, unfortunately they will probably get more soon. Have a great day!
Quoting washingtonian115:
I have a agenda...It's called waiting for hurricane season.I rather here about this made up storm "Andrea" than all this arguing.


I actually do think Andrea could form within the next few days...
369. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Haha. You know, I noticed that!! I had a hunch back in August and September when all the blobs were posted by you. But now, I am 100% certain you like to keep an eye out on the clouds.

:)



I am always on the look out for some interesting Clouds
We were forecasted to receive between 1 and 1.5" of rain last night, instead we got a widespread 1/4". Personally dumped .1". Frustrating not getting any rain up here. That drought will expand east easily this spring unless we get something major across the Missouri River Valley in the coming 2 months. Very dry again around here, as river beds are very low and ponds and lakes(-2 to -4 ft)are dropping once again.

359 ARiot: What are some other sneaky agendas? Physics? I'm starting to suspect it's all politics too. Maybe we could get a committee formed to investigate them too!

Yeah! Gravity is obviously a conspiracy to keep the down-trodden masses down.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


I actually do think Andrea could form within the next few days...
I can't say I'll be all to surprised considering sst are running higher out there this year vs last year.
373. VR46L
Quoting FunnelVortex:


I actually do think Andrea could form within the next few days...


I dont ,lol ..I think the Euro keeps it cold core but I have been wrong before
Quoting ILwthrfan:
We were forecasted to receive between 1 and 1.5" of rain last night, instead we got a widespread 1/4". Personally dumped .1". Frustrating not getting any rain up here. That drought will expand east easily this spring unless we get something major across the Missouri River Valley in the coming 2 months. Very dry again around here, as river beds are very low and ponds and lakes(-2 to -4 ft)are dropping once again.

That sounds too familiar to me, if my area would receive most of what was forecasted I would be in great shape. Predicted rainfall totals for Saturday here .10 to .25, there is the drought weather I am use to. LOL
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Nice try.

You forgot the massive ice age and global cooling predictions made by scientists in the wake of the cold periods in the 1970's.

I take it that you haven't actually looked at the scientific literature from the 1970s, have you. If you had, you would have realized that very few scientists were actually predicting global cooling during that period, and the majority were predicting global warming.

This is a tired, incorrect, worn-out claim that never seems to die, regardless of how incorrect and misleading it is. If you keep using it after being corrected, we can only begin to wonder if you are doing it on purpose and not out of ignorance.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Nice try.

You forgot the massive ice age and global cooling predictions made by scientists in the wake of the cold periods in the 1970's.

Can't cherry pick, now. :)


My 2cents. But maybe the 70's scientists were wrong about the cool down. Maybe the scientific exploration and such have now superseeded the scientists predictions from the 70's.
Forecast Minimum Temps for Monday 7pm..
Anybody rooting for May to come quickly?.If we're lucky we'll get two storms again.Lol I think we'll more than likely see an invest.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Anybody rotting for May to come quickly?.If we're lucky we'll get two storms again.Lol I think we'll more than likely see though an invest.



I bet ya we are gonna get an invest next week.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That sounds too familiar to me, if my area would receive most of what was forecasted I would be in great shape. Predicted rainfall totals for Saturday here .10 to .25, there is the drought weather I am use to. LOL


Did you not get any of that last week? I know there was a sharp cut off on the amounts in southeast Texas, didn't know if you caught any of that or not?

Our rainfall deficit can not compete with yours. -50 feet lake levels are just flat out catastrophic, especially when you consider they have been at those levels for what 2-3 years now? At least -20 - 30 in a lot of places down there a few years ago.
weak spin south of western cuba
Quoting FunnelVortex:



I bet ya we are gonna get an invest next week.
That would be nice so we can have something other than the current topic to discuss.Imagine Doc's reaction.
Quoting islander101010:
weak spin south of western cuba


No convection...
Quoting washingtonian115:
That would be nice so we can have something other than the current topic to discuss.Imagine Doc's reaction.


The Doc just hangs out on the sides. I've never seen him participate in the blogs.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The Doc just hangs out on the sides. I've never seen him participate in the blogs.
He only does in new situations.Like that time they signed over to TWC..
Quoting washingtonian115:
He only does in new situations.Like that time they signed over to TWC..

or if he has more info or to clarify on his "live" blog. Angela Fritz participates lots more than Dr Masters. Angela is good fun. Great conversationalist.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


To be fair, a warmer atmopshere holds more moisture which leads to more snow in the northern latitudes.

Also, a single snow event is not sufficient enough to support argument against AGW.


It is not contradictory to say that in some situations, snowfall could increase under global climate warming, and could decrease in other situations. To automatically dismiss the notion shows a lack of full understanding of snow in its relation to the earth's climate.

Snow is precipitation, not temperature. Although it has a dependency on temperature, it is not a direct 1:1 relationship. More snow doesn't necessarily mean colder global temperatures or vice versa. As temperatures cool, it starts at with no snow. Then as temperatures near freezing, snowfall increases quickly. As temperatures continue to fall below freezing, snowfall decreases due to limits on atmospheric moisture.

Trends in snowfall since the 1970s have not been the same for each month (via Rutgers):

Reduction in snow amounts are evident in the summer months and in the fall/spring months, with a slight increase in the depths of winter. Both of these trends are consistent with a warming climate. Winter months with a steady or slightly increasing temperature now have access to more moisture, increasing snow totals. The spring/summer/fall months are warming enough to reduce the number of precipitation events falling as snow.
Quoting AussieStorm:

or if he has more info or to clarify on his "live" blog. Angela Fritz participates lots more than Dr Masters. Angela is good fun. Great conversationalist.
Yes Angela is more conversational than the Doc is.I like when Admin spend time and talk with the members on the forum.It makes them feel like one of us except for someone in a higher postition.
390. etxwx
Heat, Flood or Icy Cold, Extreme Weather Rages Worldwide
NYT - By SARAH LYALL
Published: January 10, 2013
Excerpt: “Each year we have extreme weather, but it’s unusual to have so many extreme events around the world at once,” said Omar Baddour, chief of the data management applications division at the World Meteorological Organization, in Geneva. “The heat wave in Australia; the flooding in the U.K., and most recently the flooding and extensive snowstorm in the Middle East — it’s already a big year in terms of extreme weather calamity.”

Such events are increasing in intensity as well as frequency, Mr. Baddour said, a sign that climate change is not just about rising temperatures, but also about intense, unpleasant, anomalous weather of all kinds.

More here.
Okay so my local news station (fox 5 which signed over to hypuweather) forecast a high of 46 degrees on tuesday with continued 40's and then 30's through the rest of the week after Monday..this better be right..They are forecasting a high of about 70- degrees on Sunday.Which is very discusting to me this time of year...


Where is everyone?.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

I take it that you haven't actually looked at the scientific literature from the 1970s, have you. If you had, you would have realized that very few scientists were actually predicting global cooling during that period, and the majority were predicting global warming.

This is a tired, incorrect, worn-out claim that never seems to die, regardless of how incorrect and misleading it is. If you keep using it after being corrected, we can only begin to wonder if you are doing it on purpose and not out of ignorance.



Other tiresome claims that are continually repeated, no matter how many times they are corrected include:

1) The world hasn't warmed since 1998.

2) It's the sun.

3) The Earth has had climate change when man wasn't putting greenhouse gases into the air, so this is just a natural event.

4) The climategate emails prove it's all a scam.

5) CO2 makes up just 0.04% of the atmosphere, so that is insignificant.

6) Volcanoes put far more CO2 into the air than man.

And my personal favourite - this is a belter.

7) Al Gore bought a beachfront house, which proves he doesn't believe sea levels are rising.



NOAA's NCDC ‏@NOAANCDC
Extreme to exceptional #drought decreased from 21.3% to 20.8% of contiguous U.S. over last week http://www.drought.gov
USDA declares drought disaster in much of Wheat Belt

Crop condition ratings for winter wheat were the worst on record in early December, the most recent figures available. Some experts said up to a quarter of the crop will be abandoned because of poor development.
Quoting yonzabam:



Other tiresome claims that are continually repeated, no matter how many times they are corrected include:

1) The world hasn't warmed since 1998.

2) It's the sun.

3) The Earth has had climate change when man wasn't putting greenhouse gases into the air, so this is just a natural event.

4) The climategate emails prove it's all a scam.

5) CO2 makes up just 0.04% of the atmosphere, so that is insignificant.

6) Volcanoes put far more CO2 into the air than man.

And my personal favourite - this is a belter.

7) Al Gore bought a beachfront house, which proves he doesn't believe sea levels are rising.





It's weather. It's climate. The earth warms and cools. It has for billions of years and will continue to do so.

Stephen Gregory
@HEDZ_09
Neptune Rd, St John's, Division No. 1, Newfoundland and Labrador A1B, Canada
Much of Newfoundland had it's power knocked out by the storm.
Quoting luvtogolf:


It's weather. It's climate. The earth warms and cools. It has for billions of years and will continue to do so.
Those same scientist that support "G.W" or "climate change" also supports and relizes that the climate has changed over the course of a million years without the help of "man"

But no.It's all just man made and everything is our fault...


Post 396..so that's where all the snow and cold is EH!(No insult to canadians).Bring some of that down here.This winter sucks!!!!!!

Why are people hiding?.
Quoting JNCali:
Forecast Minimum Temps for Monday 7pm..


Wow. 20 degrees colder here in Austin TX than in DC and NYC according to that image. These last few winters have been bizarre.
I'm off to bed, got a long very hot day once I wake up. So not going to enjoy it.

Goodnight all.
Quoting Skyepony:
USDA declares drought disaster in much of Wheat Belt

Crop condition ratings for winter wheat were the worst on record in early December, the most recent figures available. Some experts said up to a quarter of the crop will be abandoned because of poor development.


Growers are certain to collect record insurance payments for losses on their 2012 crops, hit by the worst drought in half a century. Indemnities totaled $10.7 billion at the start of this week, up $670 million from the preceding week and just shy of the record $10.8 billion paid on 2011 losses.

Some analysts expect the final payout to reach $20 billion to $25 billion to create the first money-losing year for insurers in a decade



Winter wheat makes up three quarters of the US wheat crop. To lose a quarter of it would be a disaster, not only for insurers, but for food prices in the developing world. I'd expect more food riots throughout the world.

It has many knock on effects. Pig breeders in the UK are going out of business because poor harvests in the US and other regions have pushed up feed prices.
Quoting luvtogolf:


It's weather. It's climate. The earth warms and cools. It has for billions of years and will continue to do so.


Precisely, Luv To Golf.


The ones pounding away at the agenda will have you think otherwise, however.
Sometimes, reading this blog leads me into deep despair.

But then I realise that Evolution continues, and the ones that are slow to Evolve are keeping the thing balanced. Evolution needs to be a slow process.
At least, that's the only positive thing I can get from it all.
Sure, the Earth warms and cools and has throughout its existence. But the process has been VERY much slower (tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years) and even at that many animals and plants (people are animals, don't forget) failed to adapt quickly enough and went extinct. Now our current experiment is taking place over a couple of hundred years -- almost no species will be able to adapt rapidly enough to keep up with that pace. You think humans will?
Quoting pottery:
Sometimes, reading this blog leads me into deep despair.

But then I realise that Evolution continues, and the ones that are slow to Evolve are keeping the thing balanced.
At least, that's the only positive thing I can get from it all.


There are reasons why they print suffocation warning labels on plastic grocery bags :)
Quoting pottery:
Sometimes, reading this blog leads me into deep despair.

But then I realise that Evolution continues, and the ones that are slow to Evolve are keeping the thing balanced.
At least, that's the only positive thing I can get from it all.


That used to be the case, but welfare payments help them to multiply in a way that Darwin never foresaw.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Stephen Gregory
@HEDZ_09
Neptune Rd, St John's, Division No. 1, Newfoundland and Labrador A1B, Canada


incredible!!!! How many inches,no... how many feet are there, about 5'?
Quoting FunnelVortex:


whoa!!! Narelle did it fast!
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
Sure, the Earth warms and cools and has throughout its existence. But the process has been VERY much slower (tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years) and even at that many animals and plants (people are animals, don't forget) failed to adapt quickly enough and went extinct. Now our current experiment is taking place over a couple of hundred years -- almost no species will be able to adapt rapidly enough to keep up with that pace. You think humans will?

Interesting.
But as you know, viruses, wood-boring beetles, pathogens of most kinds, have very short life-spans and can adapt (or evolve) much faster than mammals, trees, food-crops.

Many people dont understand this, and think that we live in Isolation from Nature.
We do not, and the idea that we can somehow keep negatively affecting the environment without bringing down brimstone on our heads is a pretty naive one. Ignorant, in fact.
Quoting calkevin77:


There are reasons why they print suffocation warning labels on plastic grocery bags :)


Quoting yonzabam:



That used to be the case, but welfare payments help them to multiply in a way that Darwin never foresaw.


Yeah, true, unfortunately.
I suppose this all due to global warming, despite the fact there hasn't been any for the best part of 17 years now.

This blog is the world record in manipulation and selective use of statistics.
Quoting not2beeasilyconned:
I suppose this all due to global warming, despite the fact there hasn't been any for the best part of 17 years now.

This blog is the world record in manipulation and selective use of statistics.


It sure is.
Quoting not2beeasilyconned:
I suppose this all due to global warming, despite the fact there hasn't been any for the best part of 17 years now.

This blog is the world record in manipulation and selective use of statistics.


Is that so ?
You know folks, it is possible to debate things without personal attacks...
Quoting pottery:


Is that so ?


Of course he/she is right. Their bald assertions are at least as good as any data-based, evidence-supported argument that involves actual science. It's extra true if it's an assertion that has already been debunked, because scientific investigation is just a conspiracy, anyhows.

DOWN WITH HEAT CAPACITY!!
Quoting AussieStorm:


#408: Probably one of the cutest pics I've seen in a while Aussie. Have a good night and I hope you guys get some cooling down there.
419. etxwx
The following is a sincere question for those who seem unconvinced that man is influencing earth's climate in a major way. I am truly curious:

Is there something in particular that would cause you to rethink your position? Such as an event, a statement from a leader you respect, particular scientific evidence or other information? As in: "I'll be more inclined to believe man is the primary influence on the climate when....." (Fill in the blank)

Just trying to get a sense of your reasoning here - this is not meant to be a "gotcha" question.
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
You know folks, it is possible to debate things without personal attacks...

True.
And I haven't seen any personal attacks here today which is good.
Quoting not2beeasilyconned:
I suppose this all due to global warming, despite the fact there hasn't been any for the best part of 17 years now.

This blog is the world record in manipulation and selective use of statistics.


Nah, we've got NOTHING on Anthony Watts. ;)
Quoting schistkicker:


Of course he/she is right. Their bald assertions are at least as good as any data-based, evidence-supported argument that involves actual science. It's extra true if it's an assertion that has already been debunked, because scientific investigation is just a conspiracy, anyhows.

DOWN WITH HEAT CAPACITY!!


heheheheh, I like that !
Quoting etxwx:
The following is a sincere question for those who seem unconvinced that man is influencing earth's climate in a major way. I am truly curious:

Is there something in particular that would cause you to rethink your position? Such as an event, a statement from a leader you respect, particular scientific evidence or other information? As in: "I'll be more inclined to believe man is the primary influence on the climate when....." (Fill in the blank)

Just trying to get a sense of your reasoning here - this is not meant to be a "gotcha" question.

Looking forward to the answers, too.
Pokes head in, looks around, decides ain't safe once again......
wow even thru next week here.............
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Pokes head in, looks around, decides ain't safe once again......
LOL me too..Doc must be pissed for having his blog disrupted like this..I gave up yesterday,its hopeless.
A cool news article on the NASA front.

NASA Prepares for Launch of Next Earth Observation Satellite

"01.10.13 NASA's Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) is scheduled to launch Feb. 11 from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. A joint NASA and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) mission, LDCM will add to the longest continuous data record of Earth's surface as viewed from space."

"After launch, LDCM will enter a polar orbit, circling Earth about 14 times daily from an altitude of 438 miles (705 kilometers), returning over each location on Earth every 16 days. After launch and the initial checkout phase, the USGS will take operational control of the satellite, and LDCM will be renamed Landsat 8. Data will be downlinked to three ground stations in Gilmore Creek, Alaska; Svalbard, Norway; and Sioux Falls, S.D. The data will be archived and distributed at no cost to users from the USGS's Earth Resources Observation and Science Center in Sioux Falls."


Link
Many factors to consider when discussing Global Warming: 1) Smoke stacks from certain factories 2) Emissions from cars 3) Burning of fossil fuels. There is many other factors I can't think of off the top, but the main question here is how much CO2 is being emitted into the atmosphere since this is the main gas that is tied with Global Warming? All three of these factors come from the human hands. Who builds cars? Not us humans? Who built these factories that make cars? Not us humans? Now I respect others opinions and if they are against Global Warming that is fine by me. I think that this is a great topic for debate.
Quoting pottery:
Sometimes, reading this blog leads me into deep despair.

But then I realise that Evolution continues, and the ones that are slow to Evolve are keeping the thing balanced. Evolution needs to be a slow process.
At least, that's the only positive thing I can get from it all.


Made me laugh out loud! That's surely the best way to look at it!
Quoting etxwx:
The following is a sincere question for those who seem unconvinced that man is influencing earth's climate in a major way. I am truly curious:

Is there something in particular that would cause you to rethink your position? Such as an event, a statement from a leader you respect, particular scientific evidence or other information? As in: "I'll be more inclined to believe man is the primary influence on the climate when....." (Fill in the blank)

Just trying to get a sense of your reasoning here - this is not meant to be a "gotcha" question.


It is funny that I have never once said that the earth isn't warming (85 here today in Tampa in mid-January). I also have never said that man has had nothing to do with our current warming trend. However, back a while ago, I posted an article from a scientist who challenged the theory that man is the cause of GW. I made a comment that he had some compelling data. I didn't agree or disagree with the article. Well, I immediately got called a denialist, uninformed, uneducated and every other condescending remark in our English language. To be honest, since then I have been cynical on this blog because of the way I was treated.

I still believe the earth is warming, I do believe that man has some influence (how much? don't know).
Quoting calkevin77:


There are reasons why they print suffocation warning labels on plastic grocery bags :)
My thought is that it is a liability issue in the age of everyone suing anyone.... In other words....CYA
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

@BigJoeBastardi 288 hr.. that should shiver some timbers http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/289775171 542335488/photo/1/large
Quoting luvtogolf:


It is funny that I have never once said that the earth isn't warming (85 here today in Tampa in mid-January). I also have never said that man has had nothing to do with our current warming trend. However, back a while ago, I posted an article from a scientist who challenged the theory that man is the cause of GW. I made a comment that he had some compelling data. I didn't agree or disagree with the article. Well, I immediately got called a denialist, uninformed, uneducated and every other condescending remark in our English language. To be honest, since then I have been cynical on this blog because of the way I was treated.

I still believe the earth is warming, I do believe that man has some influence (how much? don't know).


Good post.
I have seen people get blasted here for pretty silly reasons, it's true.
Quoting a paper that has interesting and meaningful info. for or against the GW debate can bring down the wrath.

It's just that some on here are more defensive than others.
Also, the mind-set (one way or the other) is pretty strong, and this often leads to intolerance.

I'm guilty of that too.
Quoting Luisport:
Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

@BigJoeBastardi 288 hr.. that should shiver some timbers http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/289775171 542335488/photo/1/large


JB is absolutely correct, Luis. We'll see if this comes about. Although I'm beginning to think that it will in some way, shape, or form. The GFS has now been hinting at a brutal cold snap for the Eastern half of the contiguous U.S. for over a week now.

Quoting not2beeasilyconned:
I suppose this all due to global warming, despite the fact there hasn't been any for the best part of 17 years now.

This blog is the world record in manipulation and selective use of statistics.


You talk about cherry picking data and then you refer to ONE dataset that still has 1998 as (very marginally) the warmest year?

That's the UK Hadcrut data. In the NASA and NOAA datasets, 2005 and 2010 were warmer than 1998.

As you well know, it has been repeatedly explained on here that 1998 was an anomalous outlier year due to a record El Nino that warmed the tropical Pacific by up to 6C.

But, it doesn't matter how often that's explained, you'll be back tomorrow spouting the same nonsense. Single years don't prove anything. Even single decades can be misleading, due to natural variation.

Average global decadal temperature, with regard to the average for 1951-80. Source NASA GISS.

1981-90 0.20C
1991-00 0.32C
2001-10 0.55C

But it makes no difference. They'll still say it hasn't warmed since 1998.



Great Lakes may be freezing over for February. So much for those above average surface temperatures that prevailed throughout 2012, eh??
438. etxwx
Quoting luvtogolf:


It is funny that I have never once said that the earth isn't warming (85 here today in Tampa in mid-January). I also have never said that man has had nothing to do with our current warming trend. However, back a while ago, I posted an article from a scientist who challenged the theory that man is the cause of GW. I made a comment that he had some compelling data. I didn't agree or disagree with the article. Well, I immediately got called a denialist, uninformed, uneducated and every other condescending remark in our English language. To be honest, since then I have been cynical on this blog because of the way I was treated.

I still believe the earth is warming, I do believe that man has some influence (how much? don't know).


I appreciate your reply, luvtogolf. I, too, think it's important to avoid absolute (as in all or nothing) thinking. One thing that made an impression on my thinking was realizing how quickly (in geological terms - a mere 100+ years) humans extracted and released (via burning fossil fuels) carbon material that had been sequestered in the earth for millions of years. That's new. And there haven't been any recent, major geological events to account for that scale of release. Natural systems (oceans, plants, etc) have been able to capture some of the carbon dioxide, but it seems like that tank is about full.
Quoting not2beeasilyconned:
I suppose this all due to global warming,

What is "all due to global warming?" Please be specific. If you are referring to something a scientist has indicated, please name the scientist and what "all" refers to.
Quoting not2beeasilyconned:

despite the fact there hasn't been any [global warming] for the best part of 17 years now.

Incorrect. Not even remotely close to being accurate.


Quoting not2beeasilyconned:

This blog is the world record in manipulation and selective use of statistics.

Which is exactly how some have come to the conclusion that there has been no global warming in 17/15/10/11/etc years.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


incredible!!!! How many inches,no... how many feet are there, about 5'?
my hometown is being buried today by as much as 100 cm of snow as a blizzard rages still at this hr
Quoting TomballTXPride:


JB is absolutely correct, Luis. We'll see if this comes about. Although I'm beginning to think that it will in some way, shape, or form. The GFS has now been hinting at a brutal cold snap for the Eastern half of the contiguous U.S. for over a week now.

The freezing line is all the way down to Central Florida and Upstate NY will be feeling temperatures in the -20s.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
my hometown is being buried today by as much as 100 cm of snow as a blizzard rages still at this hr

Enjoy it, Keep.
Some showers here today. But they are warm !
Quoting luvtogolf:


It is funny that I have never once said that the earth isn't warming (85 here today in Tampa in mid-January). I also have never said that man has had nothing to do with our current warming trend. However, back a while ago, I posted an article from a scientist who challenged the theory that man is the cause of GW. I made a comment that he had some compelling data. I didn't agree or disagree with the article. Well, I immediately got called a denialist, uninformed, uneducated and every other condescending remark in our English language. To be honest, since then I have been cynical on this blog because of the way I was treated.

If you still have the link to the paper you're discussing, you can send it to my private messaging and I'll glance it over and try to provide feedback in a more civil way that maybe wasn't given to you at the time.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Great Lakes may be freezing over for February. So much for those above average surface temperatures that prevailed throughout 2012, eh??


it is a typical event to expect from one end of the extreme scale to the other

but don't you worry things are moving along at an extreme pace wait till 2015 and our first ice free arctic summer with a rapid melting greenland ice sheet thrown in for good measure

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


it is a typical event to expect from one end of the extreme scale to the other

but don't you worry things are moving along at an extreme pace wait till 2015 and our first ice free arctic summer with a rapid melting greenland ice sheet thrown in for good measure



Don't forget the entire continent of Antarctica thawing out, Keep.
Quoting etxwx:


I appreciate your reply, luvtogolf. I, too, think it's important to avoid absolute (as in all or nothing) thinking. One thing that made an impression on my thinking was realizing how quickly (in geological terms - a mere 100+ years) humans extracted and released (via burning fossil fuels) carbon material that had been sequestered in the earth for millions of years. That's new. And there haven't been any recent, major geological events to account for that scale of release. Natural systems (oceans, plants, etc) have been able to capture some of the carbon dioxide, but it seems like that tank is about full.


I think we need Superman to come, turn back time like he did in 1 and give us a do over.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The freezing line is all the way down to Central Florida and Upstate NY will be feeling temperatures in the -20s.


Looks like New England could finally be getting that winter the many are longing for...
448. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:


JB is absolutely correct, Luis. We'll see if this comes about. Although I'm beginning to think that it will in some way, shape, or form. The GFS has now been hinting at a brutal cold snap for the Eastern half of the contiguous U.S. for over a week now.



The CPC seem to agree ....




Quoting pottery:

Enjoy it, Keep.
Some showers here today. But they are warm !
i dont live they anymore pottery iam in toronto now but i was born and raised there
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Seriously, why do you keep posting this nonesense. Your "ice age" claims have been debunked repeatedly.

Link

And if that isn't good enough, you can go to Nature and other science periodical sites and search for the climate research of that era.
Too obvious Nea
Faster and Faster we go, Keep.

:)
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Too obvious Nea


My thoughts, too. Though I'll give him a B for the avatar. Not too shabby.
Quoting VR46L:


The CPC seem to agree ....






Yep, considering the CPC is a fair blend of the ECMWF and GFS...
55 and sunny in C IL, heading into 60s. ILwthr haven't seen official, but saw Litchfield .44", StL .68", Spfld only .18", though last night radar did show a burst form N of StL and move up the river valley. Sure wasn't the 1-2 forecast though.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

If you still have the link to the paper you're discussing, you can send it to my private messaging and I'll glance it over and try to provide feedback in a more civil way that maybe wasn't given to you at the time.


No need, I appreciate your civility but it was over a year ago and I don't have the time or energy to go find it. I'm heading to the course in a little while and something is up when I can play on January 11 in 85 degree weather.
456. etxwx
Quoting luvtogolf:


No need, I appreciate your civility but it was over a year ago and I don't have the time or energy to go find it. I'm heading to the course in a little while and something is up when I can play on January 11 in 85 degree weather.


Hope you have a great game, luvtogolf. I'm headed out to put out hay on the new tractor that Santa brought. Sounds like a good day all around. Shaping up to be nice and sunny here...but not 85F thank goodness. Stay cool.
Quoting etxwx:


Hope you have a great game, luvtogolf. I'm headed out to put out hay on the new tractor that Santa brought. Sounds like a good day all around. Shaping up to be nice and sunny here...but not 85F thank goodness. Stay cool.


Go have some fun out there!
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Don't forget the entire continent of Antarctica thawing out, Keep.
there could be a 20 year lag before that occurs lets get the northern hemisphere melted out first which won't be much longer now 2 maybe 3 more summer seasons to go if things remain on coarse as expected


faster and faster
Loving the heat down here in SW FL ... the bananas and papayas have started ripening again after slowing down around Christmas and New Year's. I just hope we can keep from any freezes now that all the mango trees have begun to bloom and set fruit (way too early). For us we still have at least half of winter to go. (It's kinda hard to hold your breath from now to March 1st!)

Stay safe, all....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there could be a 20 year lag before that occurs lets get the northern hemisphere melted out first which won't be much longer now 2 maybe 3 more summer seasons to go if things remain on coarse as expected


faster and faster


20 Year Lag. WHAT???!!! Keep ~ I was thinking more like 7 or 8 years, Man!!

Why 20 years?
Quoting luvtogolf:


It is funny that I have never once said that the earth isn't warming (85 here today in Tampa in mid-January). I also have never said that man has had nothing to do with our current warming trend. However, back a while ago, I posted an article from a scientist who challenged the theory that man is the cause of GW. I made a comment that he had some compelling data. I didn't agree or disagree with the article. Well, I immediately got called a denialist, uninformed, uneducated and every other condescending remark in our English language. To be honest, since then I have been cynical on this blog because of the way I was treated.
While the treatment you've outlined was unfortunate, my primary response would be that basing one's opinions on one's emotions instead of scientific fact isn't very logical at all. That is, whether or not you support a particular scientific theory should be based only on empirical evidence, not how badly you think adherents to that theory treated you.

(My job, home, my children, my health, and my very life have been directly threatened for my support of climate science. But that support is neither despite nor because of those threats; it's because it is the only extant theory that fits the mounting evidence.)
Quoting TomballTXPride:


20 Year Lag. WHAT???!!! Keep ~ I was thinking more like 7 or 8 years, Man!!

Why 20 years?
who really knows we can only go by what we have been seeing and if it continues await the results

come on you do know this is nothing more then a big field experiment the results to which we are awaiting
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
who really knows we can only go by what we have been seeing and if it continues await the results

come on you do know this is nothing more then a big field experiment the results to which we are awaiting


Keep ~ I know you're not a denialist, Bud. But you're starting to sound like one!!
Cold here. Low was 37.8... I looked at the temps when I got up and we were the same as my Sisters house in NE Wisconsin. WTH is up with that. The man on the news said we were colder than Detroit, Ouch.... Relief by next Thursday. 44.8 right now. Send long underwear..... lol
Quoting yonzabam:


Growers are certain to collect record insurance payments for losses on their 2012 crops, hit by the worst drought in half a century. Indemnities totaled $10.7 billion at the start of this week, up $670 million from the preceding week and just shy of the record $10.8 billion paid on 2011 losses.

Some analysts expect the final payout to reach $20 billion to $25 billion to create the first money-losing year for insurers in a decade



Winter wheat makes up three quarters of the US wheat crop. To lose a quarter of it would be a disaster, not only for insurers, but for food prices in the developing world. I'd expect more food riots throughout the world.

It has many knock on effects. Pig breeders in the UK are going out of business because poor harvests in the US and other regions have pushed up feed prices.


As of this moment, growing conditions are not anywhere near ideal, but All is far from being lost.

In the article linked at comment 394, it’s not clear, at least to me, if they're talking 1/4 in affected areas which would be 1/12 of the winter wheat crop nationwide. Or 1/4 of the winter wheat nationwide. I did some searching and found much of the linked article was apparently taken from a Jan 9, 2013 Reuters news story. There I found a previous Reuters news story on winter wheat which might support the 1/4 of the 1/3 grown in affected areas. Or not. From this earlier Reuters story...
Some wheat has failed to come up at all, said Bob Klein, a University of Nebraska crop specialist. "It hasn't germinated because it hasn't had any moisture. We've also had some high winds that took out some wheat."

Klein said farmers will wait until spring to evaluate conditions and soil moisture levels before deciding whether to give up on their wheat. Some may try to plant other crops.

"They'll wait till the last minute to see what they do," he said.


Statements in the January 9, 2013 Reuters news article and at the link posted at 394 which was drawn from that article noted conditions “as of early December.” Beginning in late December, there has been colder weather and moisture over parts of the Plains. Not trying to be Pollyanna here. Just realistic. By Spring we’ll know more about the Plains wheat crop and have more information about the extent of any continuing drought. Meanwhile, if they so choose, farmers are eligible for low-interest loans.