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A Rare Mid-Year El Niño Event Is Strengthening

By: Bob Henson 6:12 PM GMT on May 14, 2015

The robust El Niño event anticipated for more than a year is finally coming to fruition, according to the latest observations and forecasts. NOAA's latest monthly analysis, issued on Thursday morning, continues the El Niño Advisory already in effect and calls for a 90% chance of El Niño conditions persisting through the summer, with a greater-than-80% chance they will continue through the end of 2015. These are the highest probabilities yet for the current event, and a sign of increased forecaster confidence--despite the fact that we're in northern spring, the very time when El Niño outlooks are most uncertain.


Figure 1. A schematic showing the processes involved in El Niño. The trade winds shown by the arrow are weaker at this point than during La Niña or neutral conditions; at certain times and at some locations, they may even reverse, blowing from west to east. For a full explanation of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, including additional graphics, see the website published by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Image credit: BOM.


Forecasters and computer models alike have been confounded by this event. In a classic El Niño, the ocean and atmosphere are synchronized in a mutually reinforcing pattern that pushes warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and thunderstorm activity along the equator eastward for thousands of miles, from Indonesia toward South America (see Figure 1). Sometimes the atmosphere doesn't respond to a "kick" from the ocean, and an embryonic El Niño fails to develop. This was the case last spring, when a powerful oceanic Kelvin wave (a broad, shallow, slow-moving impulse) pushed warm water east across the Pacific tropics. Keying off this wave, many of the global models used in El Niño prediction called for a moderate or even strong El Niño by the fall of 2014. However, the normal east-to-west trade winds never reversed, which helped torpedo the needed ocean-atmosphere synchrony. The ocean tried again last fall with another Kelvin wave, but again the atmosphere failed to respond, and the SST warming disappeared after a few weeks.


Figure 2. Recent weekly departures from normal across the four tropical Pacific regions (top map) that are regularly monitored for signs of El Niño and La Niña. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.


This time, things appear to be different: SSTs have warmed for the last several months, and more recently, trade winds have weakened. As of Monday, the weekly-averaged SSTs over the four regions monitored for El Niño were all at least 1.0°C above average (see Figure 2, right). If the values for all four regions can sustain this feat throughout the next month, it'll be the first time this has happened since November 1997, during the strongest El Niño event of the 20th century. Just as significant, the persistently warmer-than-normal SSTs over the western tropical Pacific have now cooled, which helps support the reversal of trade winds so critical to El Niño. The current SST map now resembles a more textbook-like El Niño signature (see Figure 3, below), and there is every indication that the ocean-atmosphere coupling will now continue to grow.

An event out of season
As far as the eastern tropical Pacific goes, it's beginning to look a lot like Christmas. El Niño--"the Christ child" in Spanish--gets its name from its tendency to bring above-average SSTs to the coasts of Peru and Ecuador around Christmastime. The climatology of the eastern Pacific tends to support El Niño and La Niña development during the northern autumn, maximum strength in the winter, and decay in the spring. The current event is thus bucking climatology as it continues into northern spring. The three-month departure from average in the Niño3.4 region reached the El Niño threshold of +0.5°C in Oct-Nov-Jan 2014-15, and it's hovered in the weak range (+0.5 to +1.0°C] ever since, with a value of +0.6°C for Feb-Mar-Apr 2015. Only 12 of the 65 prior years in the historical database of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have seen a value of at least +0.5°C during the Feb-Mar-Apr period. Water temperatures in the Niño3.4 region are normally at their warmest in May, so the current warm anomaly is leading to especially toasty SSTs of around 29°C (84°F). If this El Niño event does intensify, as models strongly suggest it will (see below), it'll be one for the record books. There are no analogs in the database for a weak event in northern winter that becomes a stronger event by summer. Persisting into northern fall will also greatly raise the odds of this becoming a rare two-year event. In every case since at least 1950 when El Niño conditions were present by Jul-Aug-Sep, the event continued into the start of the next calendar year. Two-year El Niños are more unusual than two-year La Niñas, but they do happen, as in 1968-1970 and 1986-1988. See the new climate.gov blog by Emily Becker for more on the unusual timing of this event.


Figure 3. Departures from normal for sea-surface temperatures as measured on May 13, 2015. The warmer-than-average belt across the central and eastern tropical Pacific is characteristic of El Niño. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.


Northern spring is an especially difficult time to predict El Niño evolution. Computer-model skill at predicting ENSO is at its lowest then, in part because of reduced east-west gradients in SSTs across the tropical Pacific, but also due to factors that have yet to be fully understood. "The Spring Barrier is the climate forecaster’s equivalent of mayhem," says Michelle L'Heureux in an excellent climate.gov discussion of what forecasters often call the "spring predictability barrier." Skill does begin to improve for forecasts produced in May, according to L'Heureux, so we can begin placing more trust in the 2015-16 El Niño predictions from this point onward--although L'Heureux notes that even model runs produced in August still miss about a quarter of the winter variability in ENSO.

How strong will it get?
This week's Niño3.4 SST anomaly of +1.0°C is at the threshold of a moderate-strength event. Another 0.5°C would push the event into the strong range, which was last observed in late 2009 and early 2010. Klaus Wolter (NOAA Earth Systems Laboratory) has devised a Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) that uses multiple indicators to diagnose El Niño and La Niña. Last year's event briefly nudged into Wolter's "strong" category (defined as the top 10% of events) before subsiding. The MEI is now again at the threshold of "strong," and a statistical model recently run by Wolter finds a 44% chance that strong conditions will be in place during Aug-Sep 2015, the time of year when this statistical model is most accurate. "We have had some pretty unusual (non-persistent) behavior of the ENSO-system in the last four years that was anticipated better than by flipping a coin, especially last year, but certainly not perfectly," said Wolter in an email update.


Figure 4. Projected values of the Niño3.4 departure from average by September, based on ensemble averages from a variety of global ocean-atmosphere models (listed along left-hand side). The La Niña and El Niño thresholds indicated by the shading on this graphic are 0.8°C, the values used in Australia. The comparable threshold used by NOAA is 0.5°C, because U.S. impacts can occur with smaller departures from average. Image credit: Australia Bureau of Meteorology.


The dynamical models run at various centers around the world to predict ENSO are now unanimous in keeping El Niño going into northern autumn. The values shown in Figure 4 (above) are ensemble averages for each model, which means they smooth out the range of outcomes depicted by multiple runs of the same model. (Each run has slight differences in its starting point, to account for features too small to be observed and the natural variations that result). Within each ensemble, there's a wide range of outcomes projected by autumn 2015, from a borderline El Niño to much more extreme values. Figure 5 (below) includes both the ensemble average and the individual members for the seven models in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. A number of individual model runs push the Niño3.4 index well above +2.5°C over the next few months, and the entire NMME average is around +2.2°C for November and December. By comparison, the highest three-month departure observed in the entire 65-year NOAA database is +2.4°C (Nov-Dec-Jan 1997-98).

Now is a very good time to keep in mind that global models tend to hyperventilate a bit when it comes to strong ENSO events. "This is because the El Niño events are too shallow in the models," says Kevin Trenberth (National Center for Atmospheric Research). "They don't have as much ocean heat content engaged, so there is more of a surface signal." As for the stark variation among individual model runs, it may be due to the spring predictability barrier, as well as the result of another very powerful Kelvin wave and a strong westerly wind burst now traversing the Pacific. Models can easily predict a strengthening of El Niño conditions over the next several months as these features continue eastward, but it's tougher for the models to discern exactly what will happen after the Kelvin wave reaches South America. Trenberth points to the ocean-atmosphere coupling known as the Bjerknes feedback mechanism: "What happens after this Kelvin wave response is all over the place. This El Niño is being fought by the annual cycle, which tries to make SSTs cold by Sept-Oct.  That tendency keeps the warmest waters back near the International Date Line and cuts off the Bjerknes feedback.  If the SSTs develop to be big enough to overcome the annual cycle tendencies, then the Bjerknes feedback can kick in."


Figure 5. Projected evolution of Niño3.4 temperatures from members of the North American Mutli-Model Ensemble (members listed at top left). Dashed lines denote individual model runs; solid lines denote ensemble averages for each model. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.


What can we expect this summer?
Because it's quite rare to have intensifying El Niño conditions at this time of year, it's difficult to glean a confident signal from past events on how El Niño might affect U.S. summer weather. The global effects of El Niño arise from a shifting of showers and thunderstorms into the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which causes a reverberating sequence of atmospheric waves that tend to enhance precipitation in some areas and reduce it in others. In midlatitudes, these relationships, called teleconnections, are usually strongest in the winter hemisphere; for example, Australia often falls into drought when El Niño is developing in Jun-Jul-Aug (see Figure 6). If a strong El Niño does develop and persists into northern winter, the likely U.S. impacts would be more clear-cut, including wetter-than-average conditions across the southern half of the country, from California through Texas to Florida. This month could be seen as a sneak preview of sorts, with soggy conditions prevalent across the central and southern Plains and two unusually-wet-for-May systems reaching southern California, one last weekend and another now on its way. There is some hope for drought relief in the Golden State, given that the odds of an wetter-than-normal California rise sharply for the strongest El Niño events, but by no means would a wet winter be guaranteed. The strong El Niño of 1987-88 (which happened to be the second year of a two-year event) produced a drier-than-average winter from California to Washington.

Given that El Niño tends to suppress hurricane formation in the North Atlantic, the odds of a quiet season in that basin are growing by the month. However, a season with few storms doesn't necessarily translate into a low-impact year: the anemic 1992 season included the catastrophic Hurricane Andrew. And it's possible (though unlikely) to have a busy Atlantic hurricane season even during El Niño. Right in the middle of the weak-to-moderate two-year El Niño event of 1968-70, the Atlantic produced its most active season in 36 years, with a total of 18 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes--including the horrific Hurricane Camille.

Busy day on the blog!
For more on today's happenings, see the earlier posts by Jeff Masters on Typhoon Dolphin, which is threatening Guam, and on the incredibly hot temperatures in Spain, which have smashed European records for the month of May.

Bob Henson


Figure 6. Global ENSO teleconnections (seasonal tendencies linked to El Niño and La Niña) for northern summer (June - August). Image credit: NOAA.

El Niño

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hope no Tornado's......................................... .........................................
Geez louis you Mr.Hensen and the Doc have been putting out blogs like a smoker goes through a pack of cigarettes.
Excellent Blog and extremely informative. Will add to the issue of global "teleconnections" that some research on the US Spring severe weather season has found that the busiest tornado counts for tornado alley have come during spring "waning" El Ninos. The fact that this is a rare current event (strengthening in the Spring) adds a new research twist as well on this issue for comparison purposes in the future. Not sure if the current tornado counts (or lack thereof) are related to this unique El Nino period.
Updated Typhoon Dolphin position, now forecast to go just north of Rota island:

Quoting 3. washingtonian115:

Geez louis you Mr.Hensen and the Doc have been putting out blogs like a smoker goes through a pack of cigarettes.


Or like me with a 12 pack of Stella Artois's on a Saturday Night.
Quoting 6. StormTrackerScott:



Or like me with a 12 pack of Stella Artois's on a Saturday Night.


Only 12? light weight:)
Great new blog entry, thank you! And for sure, the world is upside down, quoting:
"As far as the eastern tropical Pacific goes, it's beginning to look a lot like Christmas."
I should fetch some candles ...
Strong WWB coming later this month. That could push Nino 3.4 over the 1.5C mark.

Thanks for the new post Bob,
Holy smokes! It seems like every time I refresh today there is a new blog.
Westerly winds now spreading across Nino 3.4.

Quoting 11. tampabaymatt:

Holy smokes! It seems like every time I refresh today there is a new blog.


These guys are shootin em out today.
Thanks Mr. Henson....The weather patterns over the next year or so will have to be watched closely..Mother Nature may show her power in a unfamiliar way...
If I was a gambling man (and I am), and I had plenty of capital to invest with, I think I'd have made an in depth study of the effects of El Nino on global agriculture, and 'invested' (gambled) accordingly, buying futures in agricultural commodities. Big money to be made, if you get it right.

The main effect is a dramatic decrease in Indonesian palm oil production, due to drought. All the big traders are well aware of this, and are advised well in advance by climatologists they employ. So, there probably wouldn't be any openings there, although you could still take a view about whether the consensus was under or over your own estimation.

Australia is also affected by drought, which would impact wheat production, but it's a small producer compared to the US, Canada, Russia and the Ukraine. So, maybe not so much to be made there.

This El Nino is unusual due to the time of year when its happening. I expect that impacts on agriculture will also be a bit different. But, simply betting on various agricultural commodities rising in price due to poor harvests would probably be a good way to go.
Below is a animation of our growing El-Nino.

Finally started raining in the SFV. Hoping for at least 0.5".
Quoting 14. hydrus:

Thanks Mr. Henson....The weather patterns over the next year or so will have to be watched closely..Mother Nature may show her power in a unfamiliar way...


What we don't get in Hurricanes we could make up for it with Severe Weather (specifically) Tornadoes starting this Fall across FL.
Basin wide Westerly anomalies the rest of May.

Thank you Dr. Masters about the el nino situation. I think this will peak in the fall with a very strong el nino and start to wane over the winter months. But none the less expect severe weather in the southeast
Quoting 20. WeatherConvoy:

Thank you Dr. Masters about the el nino situation. I think this will peak in the fall with a very strong el nino and start to wane over the winter months. But none the less expect severe weather in the southeast


CFS peaks this Event November/December.
Quoting 5. MahFL:

Updated Typhoon Dolphin position, now forecast to go just north of Rota island:




That latest forecast looks to put Guam safely outside of the hurricane force wind radius. They may get 50-60 mph sustained winds. Does that sound plausible?
Carried over from the previous blog:

Quoting 62. yoboi:

Looking better....



I'd say so! Here's the change in the last month:


From last blog:

With the addition of Himawari 8 (which replaces MTSAT-2), we now have operational 10-minute satellite animations. This will be helpful moving forward for cyclones undergoing rapid intensity changes.

Infrared loop of Dolphin

Visible loop (sun is coming up soon)
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
306 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015

FLZ013-014-026-141945-
INLAND GULF FL-INLAND GULF FL-CALHOUN FL-LIBERTY FL-
306 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CALHOUN...NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL
LIBERTY COUNTIES IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA UNTIL 345 PM EDT/245 PM
CDT/...

AT 306 PM EDT /206 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WEWAHITCHKA...OR 19 MILES EAST
OF CALLAWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STONEMILL CREEK...WEWAHITCHKA...SCOTTS FERRY...CHIPOLA PARK...CHIPOLA
CUTOFF...KINARD...RED HILL AND LEWIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&


Clouds rolling into LA above Griffith Park Observatory. Keep your fingers crossed on precip totals...

Happy birthday to the Observatory. It turns 80 years old today! I'm lucky to live below its shadow.
Thanks for the update Mr Henson....,,,Let's indeed hope it last through years end and longer and stronger!

As far as Sooo Cal storm goes Round 1 is on the way, just off the coast, Round 2 is tomorrow which will be a stronger system. Bring it on!




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT THU MAY 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A COLD LATE-SEASON STORM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING COOL...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SNOW WILL FALL IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. FAIR AND COOL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CLOUDS
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY...THEN MOSTLY FAIR THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
CONTINUE IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS WITH SOME OF THE WIND-PRONE
LOCATIONS REPORTING GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH BETWEEN 5 AND 6 AM. THE
STRONGEST GUST THIS HOUR WAS 53 MPH AT WHITEWATER IN THE SAN
GORGONIO PASS.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL AND VALLEYS
ZONES AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 500
MB COLD POOL ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE SAN DIEGO COAST. THAT TROUGH
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOCAL LATER TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 5500 AND 6000 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON AND SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY ABOVE 6000
FEET.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE SEEMS TO BE DEEPENING THE TROUGH MORE THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORY OF THE ASSOCIATED WAVE. AS A RESULT...THE NUMERICAL
MODELS HAVE ADJUSTED THE LOCATIONS OF THE GREATEST PRECIP FARTHER
SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR FRIDAY WERE LOWERED IN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY AND NORTHERN PARTS OF ORANGE AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES...BUT SAN
DIEGO COUNTY REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND GREATER ACCUMULATIONS ON FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.75" TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 2 INCHES MAINLY
ALONG THE COASTAL SLOPES.

SNOW LEVELS FALL TO BETWEEN 5500-6000 FEET WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. SNOW TOTALS FOR THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 8
INCHES...MAINLY DEPENDING ON ELEVATION. SEE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. A WEAK...TRANSIENT RIDGE SATURDAY WILL BRING
FAIR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER SAT AMD SUN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL AGAIN BRING CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER FOR MON. MEAN
TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOST OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY DEEP AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS. MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
Quoting 26. LargoFl:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
306 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015

FLZ013-014-026-141945-
INLAND GULF FL-INLAND GULF FL-CALHOUN FL-LIBERTY FL-
306 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CALHOUN...NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL
LIBERTY COUNTIES IN THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA UNTIL 345 PM EDT/245 PM
CDT/...

AT 306 PM EDT /206 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WEWAHITCHKA...OR 19 MILES EAST
OF CALLAWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STONEMILL CREEK...WEWAHITCHKA...SCOTTS FERRY...CHIPOLA PARK...CHIPOLA
CUTOFF...KINARD...RED HILL AND LEWIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&



Tally getting a nice cooling Thunderstorm ATM. Should be active like that across our Friday especially Saturday as PWAT's near 2" up from the 1.4" range that they have been all week.


what......an el nino blog post without hype?.......no grandiosity?.......mr bob.....i'm beginning to like you better and better
Quoting 29. StormTrackerScott:



Tally getting a nice cooling Thunderstorm ATM. Should be active like that across our Friday especially Saturday as PWAT's near 2" up from the 1.4" range that they have been all week.



yeah tons of lightning up there with those storms.
According to NASA it's been 177 years since we went 9 years without a major land falling hurricane in conus.

Part of the Houston discussion below:

Discussion...
the synoptic pattern controlling today's Southern Plains weather
pattern will be of weak ridging. Texas will fall on the far western
periphery of a Florida-centered upper level ridge. A plains shortwave
trough kicking northeast into the Great Lake region early Friday...with
the state being in between East Coast ridging and a developing broad
West Coast middle to upper level trough...will maintain 25-3h diffulent
flow over eastern Texas. Within the lower level southerly flow regime
the resident air mass still remains slightly above normal with
respect to moisture content at near 1.7 inch precipitable waters . Recent inspection
of the local radiosonde observation soundings and near term forecasts suggest that today's
local environment is conditionally unstable...especially in the lower
3 km in both the NAM/GFS soundings...where greater than 7 degree c lapse
rates are noted. These impressive background thermodynamics providing
quite the robust indices...greater than 2-2500 (inland county) convective available potential energy
leading to -6 to -7 l.I.S and k indices in the 30s. Low to middle convective
80 temperatures will get parcels rising and tapping into this potential...
especially over those inland counties that may see a peek or two of
sun early in the day. If towering cumulus begin to evolve into heated air
mass thunderstorms...isolated cells may put out some strong winds
(inverted-v structure) and hail (sub 12k wbz heights). Slow moving
clusters will also be hp in nature and lay down near 2 inch per hour
rates. No discernible shortwave moving up within the S-SW steering
flow signals that any activity today will be from surface heating
alone. The only other positive for enhanced precipitation chances may
come from weak wind shifts within the overall southeast wind pattern
that may help with late morning low level convergence.

And it's getting totally dark here, like night time dark ...its gonna let loose soon.
Will try and get pictures

Thunder and lightning happening

We had over three inches yesterday and ran in to flooded streets on the way home last night ...wonder what tonight's ride will bring?
Dolphin getting closer, current observation from:

Agana, Guam International Airport (PGUM)

Light Rain and Breezy

79°F
26°C

Humidity 89%
Wind Speed N 21 G 29 mph
Barometer 29.71 in
Dewpoint 75°F (24°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 83°F (28°C)
Last update 15 May 4:54 am ChST







Quoting 33. txjac:

Part of the Houston discussion below:

Discussion...
the synoptic pattern controlling today's Southern Plains weather
pattern will be of weak ridging. Texas will fall on the far western
periphery of a Florida-centered upper level ridge. A plains shortwave
trough kicking northeast into the Great Lake region early Friday...with
the state being in between East Coast ridging and a developing broad
West Coast middle to upper level trough...will maintain 25-3h diffulent
flow over eastern Texas. Within the lower level southerly flow regime
the resident air mass still remains slightly above normal with
respect to moisture content at near 1.7 inch precipitable waters . Recent inspection
of the local radiosonde observation soundings and near term forecasts suggest that today's
local environment is conditionally unstable...especially in the lower
3 km in both the NAM/GFS soundings...where greater than 7 degree c lapse
rates are noted. These impressive background thermodynamics providing
quite the robust indices...greater than 2-2500 (inland county) convective available potential energy
leading to -6 to -7 l.I.S and k indices in the 30s. Low to middle convective
80 temperatures will get parcels rising and tapping into this potential...
especially over those inland counties that may see a peek or two of
sun early in the day. If towering cumulus begin to evolve into heated air
mass thunderstorms...isolated cells may put out some strong winds
(inverted-v structure) and hail (sub 12k wbz heights). Slow moving
clusters will also be hp in nature and lay down near 2 inch per hour
rates. No discernible shortwave moving up within the S-SW steering
flow signals that any activity today will be from surface heating
alone. The only other positive for enhanced precipitation chances may
come from weak wind shifts within the overall southeast wind pattern
that may help with late morning low level convergence.

And it's getting totally dark here, like night time dark ...its gonna let loose soon.
Will try and get pictures

Thunder and lightning happening

We had over three inches yesterday and ran in to flooded streets on the way home last night ...wonder what tonight's ride will bring?
good luck..drive safe
Quoting 33. txjac:
Part of the Houston discussion below:

Discussion... wonder what tonight's ride will bring?


Downtown Houston getting very dark right now, 3:00pm local time.
Quoting 33. txjac:

Part of the Houston discussion below:

Discussion...
the synoptic pattern controlling today's Southern Plains weather
pattern will be of weak ridging. Texas will fall on the far western
periphery of a Florida-centered upper level ridge. A plains shortwave
trough kicking northeast into the Great Lake region early Friday...with
the state being in between East Coast ridging and a developing broad
West Coast middle to upper level trough...will maintain 25-3h diffulent
flow over eastern Texas. Within the lower level southerly flow regime
the resident air mass still remains slightly above normal with
respect to moisture content at near 1.7 inch precipitable waters . Recent inspection
of the local radiosonde observation soundings and near term forecasts suggest that today's
local environment is conditionally unstable...especially in the lower
3 km in both the NAM/GFS soundings...where greater than 7 degree c lapse
rates are noted. These impressive background thermodynamics providing
quite the robust indices...greater than 2-2500 (inland county) convective available potential energy
leading to -6 to -7 l.I.S and k indices in the 30s. Low to middle convective
80 temperatures will get parcels rising and tapping into this potential...
especially over those inland counties that may see a peek or two of
sun early in the day. If towering cumulus begin to evolve into heated air
mass thunderstorms...isolated cells may put out some strong winds
(inverted-v structure) and hail (sub 12k wbz heights). Slow moving
clusters will also be hp in nature and lay down near 2 inch per hour
rates. No discernible shortwave moving up within the S-SW steering
flow signals that any activity today will be from surface heating
alone. The only other positive for enhanced precipitation chances may
come from weak wind shifts within the overall southeast wind pattern
that may help with late morning low level convergence.

And it's getting totally dark here, like night time dark ...its gonna let loose soon.
Will try and get pictures

Thunder and lightning happening

We had over three inches yesterday and ran in to flooded streets on the way home last night ...wonder what tonight's ride will bring?


That high over FL is pumping some deep moisture NW up from the Gulf.

Best I can tell, today at least three stations in Spain set new records for the hottest temperatures ever experienced in Europe during the month of May. Carcaixent (Valencia Province) reached an official high of 42.9C (109.22F) around 3:00PM local time; Xàtiva, also in valencia, saw 42.7 (108.86) a little after 3:00; and the airport in Valencia proper reached 42.5 (108.5F) at 4:40PM.

Yowza...
Remember all the experts advocating a Mega Drought for Texas a few years ago, hopefully the same thing happens in California.
Here is NASA's GMAO GEOS-5 model runs over the last few weeks for region 3,4..

Quoting 6. StormTrackerScott:



Or like me with a 12 pack of Stella Artois's on a Saturday Night.
Eh boy...I can see how that ends...a little tipsy, belligerently yelling out the window "El Nino is coming, El Nino is coming"!!! Possibly even a Nino flag waving... :):)
Quoting 20. WeatherConvoy:

Thank you Dr. Masters about the el nino situation. I think this will peak in the fall with a very strong el nino and start to wane over the winter months. But none the less expect severe weather in the southeast
Curious as to why you are thanking Dr. Masters for a blog entry written by Mr. Henson... ;-) (Hard to keep up with our dynamic duo today!!)
Good afternoon good people just a few predictions about upcoming Hurricane Season. There are several factors that tend to be positive for development this hurricane season and several factors that are tending to be negative for hurricane development. Let's look at the positive because I am a half cup full individual. The positives are warm SSTs very close to home, as well as, lower sea surface pressures closer to home in and around the warmer SSTs. These areas stretch from the Gulf of Mexico up to New England. So don't be surprised to see to quick spin ups of tropical cyclones close to home. I believe New England will be affected this year. Due to the North South orientation of warm SSTs and the way the lower pressures are orientated. I live in Florida but I believe the Carolinas on north will see the most action from August to early October. The negative factors are the strong el nino developing creating wind shear, an enemy of tropical cyclones. The developing -AMO in the MDR of the Atlantic which leads to cooler SSTs, suppressing the "fuel" for the tropical cyclones, and lastly higher pressures and SAL in the MDR of the Atlantic. In conclusion, there are more negatives than positives for tropical cyclones development thus tending to a below average year. BUT the GOM to Florida have a chance for a storm or two but the Carolinas to New England are the hotspot this year. Thank you for listening. Brandon MET student MSU
As an aside - I encourage you all to take a look at Wunderphotos on this website. The majority of the images posted there are incredible.
Scott or any blogger please provide input on 2015 hurricane forecast. I gave my best amateur forecast
Quoting 40. Skyepony:

Here is NASA's GMAO GEOS-5 model runs over the last few weeks for region 3,4..




May update on the Euro is near 4C. Staggering numbers from the May update of these ENSO models and not surprising as we are near the end of the Spring Barrier and models are coming into decent agreement of an El-Nino rivaling or surpassing the 1997 event. Could set up a interesting Fall thru Spring here in FL. Could be lots of severe weather and heavy flooding across the area.
Scott great call on the El Nino forecast this year, you were calling for it from the winter 2014-2015
Quoting 45. WeatherConvoy:

Scott or any blogger please provide input on 2015 hurricane forecast. I gave my best amateur forecast


6 to 8 storms 3 to 4 hurricanes 1 to 2 majors. With most of the systems close to home.
sorry Mr. Henson I say thank you to you as well
Quoting 7. Bucsboltsfan:



Only 12? light weight:)


How do you think you'll fare against the rangers?
Winds on Guam at the Airport,

16mph with Gusts to 29mph




Been there many, many times. A great view from the hills on a non-smoggy day. Glad to see the clouds - looks promising.

Quoting 27. LAGotNoWeather:



Clouds rolling into LA above Griffith Park Observatory. Keep your fingers crossed on precip totals...

Happy birthday to the Observatory. It turns 80 years old today! I'm lucky to live below its shadow.
Quoting 46. StormTrackerScott:



May update on the Euro is near 4C. Staggering numbers from the May update of these ENSO models and not surprising as we are near the end of the Spring Barrier and models are coming into decent agreement of an El-Nino rivaling or surpassing the 1997 event. Could set up a interesting Fall thru Spring here in FL. Could be lots of severe weather and heavy flooding across the area.
Typhoon Dolphin WunderMap®

Storm Details YouTube Videos (1) WunderPhotos (0)

Last Updated 5/14/2015, 1:00:00 PM (CDT)

Location 12.8N 211.5E Movement WNW at 16 mph

Wind 110 MPH

Other Storm Information


Coordinates | Discussions | Public Advisory

999
wdpn32 pgtw 142100
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/prognostic reasoning for typhoon 07w (dolphin) warning nr 33//
rmks/

1. For meteorologists.

2. 6 hour summary and analysis.

Typhoon (TY) 07w (dolphin), located approximately 217 nm east-
southeast of andersen AFB, has tracked west-northwestward at 14knots
over the past six hours. Animated enhanced infrared satellite
imagery continues to depict a small convective core structure with
broken convective banding along the northern periphery. A 141704z
SSMI microwave image reveals a compact core with tightly-curved
banding wrapping into the center. The initial position is based on
the eir loop, pgtw satellite fix and aforementioned microwave image
with good confidence.

The initial intensity of 95 knots based on an
overall assessment of Dvorak current intensity estimates from pgtw
and rjtd Dvorak and current structure. Upper-level analysis
indicates typhoon Dolphin remains in an area of moderate (20 to 25
knot) vertical wind shear (vws) being offset by good poleward
outflow channel. Typhoon 07w is currently tracking toward a break of
a subtropical ridge located to the north.

3. Forecast reasoning.

A. There is no significant change to the forecast philosophy from
the previous prognostic reasoning message.

B. Typhoon Dolphin will continue to track west-northwestward
under the steering influence of the modified str. Moderate vws will
persist; however, warm sea surface temperatures (sst) and good
poleward outflow are expected, leading to a gradual intensification
rate over the next 24 hours. After tau 48, the steering str is
expected to rebuild to the northeast allowing typhoon 07w to begin
the turn poleward. TY Dolphin will gain an increased poleward
outflow channel from the mid-latitude westerlies as it rounds the
str axis, allowing it to further intensify.

C. Beyond tau 72, TY Dolphin will begin to accelerate
northeastward after it rounds the str axis. Concurrently, the
combined effects of increasing vws and cooling SST will impact the
system, leading to its weakening trend through the remainder of the
forecast period. Dynamic model guidance continues to remain
consistent on a track between Guam and Saipan. The current jtwc
track forecast is positioned close to multi-model consensus with
high confidence.

//


Dolphins Eye now coming into Long Range Radar View from Guam

Quoting 50. win1gamegiantsplease:



How do you think you'll fare against the rangers?


Going to be tough. They have a great goalie and home ice. Our only chance is to play like we did in game six against Montreal. If we don't then we'll lose in 6.
Hey Joe, Part One just got here, just sprinkling, street not even wet yet.
all right who was allowed to play with the coloring crayons in fig 5?
For the time being, now that Dolphin is coming into doppler view from Guam, the storm/eye-wall continues to jog towards Guam (as opposed to North of the island)..............It needs to jog again to the NW in the very near future. It may well miss a direct hit on the Island (in terms of the core) but if I was on Guam, I would be a little nervous at the moment: Too close for comfort.

Quoting 58. PedleyCA:

Hey Joe, Part One just got here, just sprinkling, street not even wet yet.


Hope it rains good Ped! I see on radar it's just getting to ya........will start here in a few hours.......hope it pours tomorrow!
My Tropical prediction since I just had a new roof installed:

7-10 storms
1-4 hurricanes
2 major
Quoting 32. centex:

According to NASA it's been 177 years since we went 9 years without a major land falling hurricane in conus.


That is wonderful..Little ole me tho does count Ike and Sandy as majors...The damage they caused was almost double of some of the majors the U.S. has had.
SANDY-
Formed October 22, 2012
Dissipated November 2, 2012
(Extratropical after October 29
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 115 mph
Lowest pressure 940 mbar (hPa); 27.76 inHg
Fatalities 233 total (direct and indirect)
Damage - $68 billion (2012 USD)
(Second-costliest hurricane in US history
Areas affected Greater Antilles, Bahamas, most of the eastern United States (especially the coastal Mid-Atlantic States), Bermuda, eastern Canada
IKE-
Formed September 1, 2008
Dissipated September 15, 2008
(Extratropical after September 14)
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 145 mph
Lowest pressure 935 mbar (hPa); 27.61 inHg
Fatalities 103 direct, 92 indirect, 34 missing
Damage $37.5 billion (2008 USD)
(Third costliest hurricane in United States history; costliest in Cuban history)
Areas affected

Turks and Caicos Bahamas Hispaniola Cuba Cayman Islands Florida Keys South Central United States Ohio Valley Great Lakes region Eastern Canada

Perhaps the 2015/16 el nino will be officially called mega el nino, I have seen that term regarding 1997/98 year.
65. vis0
That majeekal device i use to type 'bout is showing 40%-70% undercarriage activity, for those that know be alert, for those that don't know pay atten to NOAA radio & respected WxU members.   

As to blogbytes topic i hope some read my blog on humble advising to STS (whom i respect) on upcoming Nino & 2wkAnomaly actions
Quoting 63. hydrus:

That is wonderful..Little ole me tho does count Ike and Sandy as majors...The damage they caused was almost double of some of the majors the U.S. has had.



Gustav, Isaac as well, as both had enormous costs.


If one , like the idiot media use the SSS for a "Major", they should also post a disclaimer that the SSS was designed for "wind loading" on structures and is POOR indicator of impact.

Always.
Quoting 66. Patrap:




Gustav, Isaac as well, as both had enormous costs.


If one , like the idiot media use the SSS for a "Major", they should also post a disclaimer that the SSS was designed for "wind loading" on structures and is POOR indicator of impact.

Always.
Thanks for your support Pat...Sometimes a brotha needs a boost to get the point across. I added the dreaded numbers from those storms to my earlier post ..This should help also..
Quoting 62. RatRAP:

My Tropical prediction since I just had a new roof installed:

7-10 storms
1-4 hurricanes
2 major
Damn thats funny.....so your stating since you replaced your roof , the next major will be there to rip it off.......They make great kites if the rope is strong enough.
My Atlantic prediction:  a below average season (under 10 storms)........................Don't have a clue as to the major/minor/TS spread.
Quoting 39. NativeSun:
Remember all the experts advocating a Mega Drought for Texas a few years ago, hopefully the same thing happens in California.
If you study science, you will learn that the experts (I assume you mean scientists, e.g. climate scientists), do projections - future scenarios - with probabilities and confidence levels. They say that mega droughts will be more likely, but they don't "predict" them. They also say that more extreme weather and precipitation events are likely, and there will probably be less of the gentle, steady types or precip events that farming thrives on. This pattern seems to be emerging already. And without snow to provide spring and summer runoff from the Sierra Nevada Mountains to keep feeding the reservoirs in California, they will still have problems. If this El Niño bails out California, it will be a temporary fix, because deep underground the big central valley aquifers are collapsing as fossil water is pumped out and the land is sinking - in some areas by tens of feet. I don't think a deluge will recharge them.

So then, scientists don't advocate, but rather put their knowledge into models and make projections for trends with varying levels of confidence. (The definition of advocate is to "publicly recommend or support" and it doesn't apply to scientific projections.)

Scientists know that global warming is happening - it's a reality. And as the global average temperature increases, the atmosphere holds more moisture, the oceans contain more heat, and these trends will change the climate and weather patterns. More energy is available for severe storms, and there will likely be more of what Dr. Masters calls "whiplash weather" as the jet streams slow down and do more "lazy loops" due to the decrease in the average temperature differential between the Arctic and the lower latitudes.

This El Niño appears to be an unusual one. We cannot say that was caused" by global warming, but the 2015 El Niño may be one of many signs of a rapidly changing global climate.

So, if you see projections of drought or other climate trends, be aware that they are never 100% guaranteed. Rather than criticize the experts for "failed predictions," appreciate the tremendous effort people like Dr. Masters, Mr. Henson, and the world's meteorologists and climatologists put into trying to understand what is happening to help TPTB plan for the future.

We are getting close to a point where some real estate sales in low lying areas like Florida, coastal Louisiana and Texas, and other places won't be able to get 30 year mortgages or afford insurance because of sea level rise and the danger it poses to structures on those properties. I believe that the next major hurricane with a big storm surge to to strike one of these areas will begin to really hammer home the lessons we began to learn from Katrina.
Quoting 15. yonzabam:

If I was a gambling man (and I am), and I had plenty of capital to invest with, I think I'd have made an in depth study of the effects of El Nino on global agriculture, and 'invested' (gambled) accordingly, buying futures in agricultural commodities. Big money to be made, if you get it right.

The main effect is a dramatic decrease in Indonesian palm oil production, due to drought. All the big traders are well aware of this, and are advised well in advance by climatologists they employ. So, there probably wouldn't be any openings there, although you could still take a view about whether the consensus was under or over your own estimation.

Australia is also affected by drought, which would impact wheat production, but it's a small producer compared to the US, Canada, Russia and the Ukraine. So, maybe not so much to be made there.

This El Nino is unusual due to the time of year when its happening. I expect that impacts on agriculture will also be a bit different. But, simply betting on various agricultural commodities rising in price due to poor harvests would probably be a good way to go.


Imagine if you could measure even one of the "cycles" the denier crowd insist exists. You could really make a killing. It might even eclipse the legendary Clarence Beeks inside info on the concentrated frozen orange juice market.
Quoting 15. yonzabam:

If I was a gambling man (and I am), and I had plenty of capital to invest with, I think I'd have made an in depth study of the effects of El Nino on global agriculture, and 'invested' (gambled) accordingly, buying futures in agricultural commodities. Big money to be made, if you get it right.

The main effect is a dramatic decrease in Indonesian palm oil production, due to drought. All the big traders are well aware of this, and are advised well in advance by climatologists they employ. So, there probably wouldn't be any openings there, although you could still take a view about whether the consensus was under or over your own estimation.

Australia is also affected by drought, which would impact wheat production, but it's a small producer compared to the US, Canada, Russia and the Ukraine. So, maybe not so much to be made there.

This El Nino is unusual due to the time of year when its happening. I expect that impacts on agriculture will also be a bit different. But, simply betting on various agricultural commodities rising in price due to poor harvests would probably be a good way to go.
Howdy Yonz..They have been doing that for at least 20 years with the Nino...It never really changed...When electronic Football came out in the late 1970,s , and literally out sold every toy in existence at the time..People knew to by stock in Duracell and Eveready batteries.......and they made money.
Quoting 55. Patrap:



Storms blowing up right around the center now. Dolphin's winding up for the strike...
Good thing this is moving rather quick...Starting to look ominous again..

Quoting 27. LAGotNoWeather:



Clouds rolling into LA above Griffith Park Observatory. Keep your fingers crossed on precip totals...

Happy birthday to the Observatory. It turns 80 years old today! I'm lucky to live below its shadow.


Is that little hiking trail to get to the observatory still there? I loved that as a kid. And B.T.W. if you see any of those neat tee shirts sold there chances are I made it. Especially if it looks really good. (smiley face) As far as L.A. getting rain I hope you can stay off the roads as much as possible; people driving get even more dangerous out there when it rains.
Unfortunately I haven t found any webcam close to where Dolphin is about to make landfall, do you guys know about some good one?
Conditions are deteriorating on Guam, with sustained winds of 26 mph gusting to 36 mph at the Agana International Airport. While the storm should certainly have an impact there, the island is incredibly lucky that Dolphin has struggled with dry air and wind shear. Otherwise, they certainly could have seen a Category 4 or Category 5 equivalent typhoon bearing down on them tonight...
Quoting 66. Patrap:




Gustav, Isaac as well, as both had enormous costs.


If one , like the idiot media use the SSS for a "Major", they should also post a disclaimer that the SSS was designed for "wind loading" on structures and is POOR indicator of impact.

Always.


It's funny that I always see more discussion about the damage Hurricabe Isaac caused, but there's no mention of Hurricane Irene, which caused about 8x the damage of Isaac (2.3 billion vs. 16.6 billion). Maybe it's the fact that Irene was heavily hyped and seemed to under-deliver.
Quoting 39. NativeSun:

Remember all the experts advocating a Mega Drought for Texas a few years ago, hopefully the same thing happens in California.


No I don't remember any experts advocating for a mega-drought in Texas and do I hope that no experts advocate for one in California. Hopefully the drought ends quickly in California as lots of people's livelihood depend on it. And drinking water and plant life are pretty cool.
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP072015
645 AM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

AT 630 AM CHST... the eye of Typhoon DOLPHIN was located by radar near 12.9N 147.6E, or about 195 miles east of Guam. Doppler weather radar at elevation 0.5 degrees and a height of 28000 feet. This is 180 miles east southeast of Rota and 195 miles southeast of Tinian and Saipan. The movement is estimated west northwestward at 12 MPH (10 knots).
Quoting 80. HadesGodWyvern:

TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP072015
645 AM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

AT 630 AM CHST... the eye of Typhoon DOLPHIN was located by radar near 12.9N 147.6E, or about 195 miles east of Guam. Doppler weather radar at elevation 0.5 degrees and a height of 28000 feet. This is 180 miles east southeast of Rota and 195 miles southeast of Tinian and Saipan. The movement is estimated west northwestward at 12 MPH (10 knots).


It's going to be a close shave for Guam with that current location but it looks like the core of the storm is headed towards the Mariannas islands just to Guam's north.
Quoting 77. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Conditions are deteriorating on Guam, with sustained winds of 26 mph gusting to 36 mph at the Agana International Airport. While the storm should certainly have an impact there, the island is incredibly lucky that Dolphin has struggled with dry air and wind shear. Otherwise, they certainly could have seen a Category 4 or Category 5 equivalent typhoon bearing down on them tonight...
Indeed..Long as nothing freaky happens, they may see a strong two, weak 3...weak-3 being the max...Unless this does undergo R.I...Then serious problems begin.
Will see you folks in the am; with the coordinates below and speed of 12 mph, the core of the storm should be approaching the Tinian/Saipan area in about 15 hours or around early tomorrow morning around 8:00 am for us on Eastern Time.

God Speed to the folks on Guam and the Islands and will be praying for you tomorrow.

Quoting 59. WaterWitch11:

all right who was allowed to play with the coloring crayons in fig 5?
Wuznt me....Could never get the hang of it.
Just started sprinkling Ped........looks like you doing ok up there?
Quoting 32. centex:

According to NASA it's been 177 years since we went 9 years without a major land falling hurricane in conus.

From Phys.org:

The researchers ran 1,000 computer simulations of the period from 1950-2012 – in effect simulating 63,000 separate Atlantic hurricane seasons. They found that a nine-year period without a major landfall is likely to occur once every 177 years on average.
http://streamdb1web.securenetsystems.net/v5/index.c fm?stationCallSign=KZGZ
http://worldradiomap.com/gu/play/kzgz_live

Guam radio station.

**not responsible for the foul language you might hear on this station**
Quoting 85. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Just started sprinkling Ped........looks like you doing ok up there?




In the clear for a little while, stopped completely. It rained for about an hour, more to come soon....
Quoting 39. NativeSun:

Remember all the experts advocating a Mega Drought for Texas a few years ago, hopefully the same thing happens in California.


Were all of the experts predicting that there would be no more wet periods in Texas, or were all of the experts predicting that dry periods would become more intense on average, or were all of the experts predicting that dry periods would last longer on average? How about you post links with quotes from all of the experts so that we can read what they stated? I'm guessing that it isn't the case that all of the experts predicted that there wouldn't be any more wet periods in Texas. For many areas that have been predicted to become drier, it has also been predicted that when precipitation does come, it will often be more intense.
Agana Heights, Guam WU station showing winds at 38 mph, gusts to 53 mph. Pressure at 29.66 in.
Quoting 86. Xandra:


From Phys.org:

The researchers ran 1,000 computer simulations of the period from 1950-2012 – in effect simulating 63,000 separate Atlantic hurricane seasons. They found that a nine-year period without a major landfall is likely to occur once every 177 years on average.
reminds me of poker
Radar loop:

Quoting 90. Huracan94:

Agana Heights, Guam WU station showing winds at 38 mph, gusts to 53 mph. Pressure at 29.66 in.


Very close to where my brother lives.
The radar loop reminds me when I was watching Dean go through the Lesser Antilies.
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP072015
745 AM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

AT 730 AM CHST, the eye of Typhoon DOLPHIN was located by radar near 13.0N 147.5E or about 185 miles east of Guam. Doppler weather radar at elevation 0.5 degree and a height of 25700 feet. This is 175 miles east southeast of Rota and 190 miles southeast of Tinian and Saipan.

General movement of the typhoon is estimate at 7 MPH (6 knots) in a west northwest direction.

NEXT POSITION ESTIMATE WILL BE AROUND 900 AM.
Quoting 96. HadesGodWyvern:

TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP072015
745 AM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

AT 730 AM CHST, the eye of Typhoon DOLPHIN was located by radar near 13.0N 147.5E or about 185 miles east of Guam. Doppler weather radar at elevation 0.5 degree and a height of 25700 feet. This is 175 miles east southeast of Rota and 190 miles southeast of Tinian and Saipan.

General movement of the typhoon is estimate at 7 MPH (6 knots) in a west northwest direction.

NEXT POSITION ESTIMATE WILL BE AROUND 900 AM.
Slow down considerably..Feeling the weakness to the north.?
Great...the best webcam I have found so far is updated once in five minutes...not too good.
Quoting 88. PedleyCA:





In the clear for a little while, stopped completely. It rained for about an hour, more to come soon....


Street wet here but not much rain...very light......g/l
Quoting 100. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Street wet here but not much rain...very light......g/l


It is on again here, nice gentle rain, probably won't need that extra sandbag....


Looks like you get the best rain today Ped........next wave supposedly coming in at the border tomorrow......raining better now!
Does Dolphin still have chance to have new rapid intensification?
Quoting 101. PedleyCA:



It is on again here, nice gentle rain, probably won't need that extra sandbag....
Showery in my area with amounts ranging from .01 to .07 so far.
I've read a decent amount of material regarding Hurricane Andrew, but I never caught this from the link that Dr. Henson provided:

It is unlikely that this point observation was so fortuitously situated that it represents a sampling of the absolute strongest wind. The Fowey Rocks log (not shown) indicates that the wind speed increased through 0800 UTC. Unfortunately, Fowey Rocks then ceased transmitting data, presumably because even stronger winds disabled the instrumentation. (A subsequent visual inspection indicated that the mast supporting the anemometer had become bent 90 degrees from vertical.) Radar reflectivity data suggests that the most intense portion of Andrew's eyewall had not reached Fowey Rocks by 0800 UTC and that the wind speed could have continued to increase there for another 15 to 30 minutes. A similar conclusion can be reached from the pressure analysis in Fig. 4 which indicates that the pressure at Fowey Rocks probably fell by about another 20 mb from the 0800 UTC mark of 968 mb.
Quoting 105. LowerCal:

Showery in my area with amounts ranging from .01 to .07 so far.


Good to hear you are getting something too.
Quoting 66. Patrap:




Gustav, Isaac as well, as both had enormous costs.


If one , like the idiot media use the SSS for a "Major", they should also post a disclaimer that the SSS was designed for "wind loading" on structures and is POOR indicator of impact.

Always.
True. Always remember the number one killer in tropical cyclones is storm surge flooding and inundation. Katrina, Mitch, and 1970 Bhola Cyclone in Bangladesh thought us all that. When half a million people have died or went missing because of a natural disaster, which is from a world population perspective a huge chunk, it puts it into perspective and makes me 2nd guess what I wish for, especially when you see the pictures. Drought from an agricultural perspective is no different either. Hell no I don't want to live through another dust bowl.

This image goes a long way in explaining why California is so susceptible to drought

edit: image doesnt work....

Miami HeraldVerified account ‏@MiamiHerald
#TRAFFICALERT Rolls of toilet paper are blocking a lane of southbound Biscayne Blvd. near a strip club at NE 172nd St. #SFLATRAFFIC
it would be funny if we get two before mid june some characters picked 5.
Quoting 39. NativeSun:
Remember all the experts advocating a Mega Drought for Texas a few years ago, hopefully the same thing happens in California.

Let's refresh your memory :

Texas Sets Record for Hottest Summer in U.S. History September 09 2011




Drought among the worst in Texas in past 500 years
May 13, 2014
115. flsky
Love it!

Quoting 112. StormTrackerScott:


Miami HeraldVerified account ‏@MiamiHerald
#TRAFFICALERT Rolls of toilet paper are blocking a lane of southbound Biscayne Blvd. near a strip club at NE 172nd St. #SFLATRAFFIC


The Eyewall approaches as the impact will only increase thru the day there.

Quoting 115. flsky:

Love it!




O Gawd not the Strip club!!


Turning WNW now, could hit Rota head on.
Bring it on!

Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
414 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2015

CAC059-065-071-150115-
/O.NEW.KSGX.FA.Y.0007.150514T2314Z-150515T0115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
ORANGE CA-SAN BERNARDINO CA-RIVERSIDE CA-
414 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
RIVERSIDE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 615 PM PDT

* AT 410 PM PDT...WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN MOVING
ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE INLAND EMPIRE. THIS
WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE. PONDING OF WATER ON HIGHWAYS WILL
MAKE FOR DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. LOW LYING AREAS WILL BECOME FLOODED
AND WATER WILL FLOW IN NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND CANALS.

* RAINFALL RATES OF 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE OCCURRED AND
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH 6 PM. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF FIRST IN ORANGE COUNTY AS THE STORM CELLS MOVE WEST TO
EAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ANAHEIM...SANTA ANA...RIVERSIDE...IRVINE...SAN BERNARDINO...
FONTANA...MORENO VALLEY...ONTARIO...CORONA...ORANGE...FULLERTON...
RIALTO...MISSION VIEJO...CHINO...TUSTIN...REDLANDS...YORBA LINDA...
LAKE ELSINORE...YUCAIPA AND LAGUNA BEACH.

LAT...LON 3395 11786 3395 11779 3398 11780 3402 11777
3402 11773 3419 11767 3423 11740 3407 11695
3362 11716 3354 11749 3358 11785 3381 11789

$$

TARDY
Quoting 112. StormTrackerScott:


Miami HeraldVerified account ‏@MiamiHerald
#TRAFFICALERT Rolls of toilet paper are blocking a lane of southbound Biscayne Blvd. near a strip club at NE 172nd St. #SFLATRAFFIC



I thought the club was on 184th
Some rainfall totals since this morning in Sooo Cal


PRELIMINARY STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
315 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2015


RAWS MESONET ASOS AND ALERT 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF

_________________________315 PM THURSDAY_________________________


.TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL ZONES

STATION PRECIP(IN) MILES/DIRECTION FROM

1. CUCAMONGA CANYON 0.63 2NNW RANCHO CUCA
2. CORONA DEL MAR 0.59 2E NEWPORT BEACH
3. YORBA PARK 0.59 2SE YORBA LINDA
4. OCEANVIEW 0.51 3S GARDEN GROVE
5. PLUNGE CREEK CANYON 0.47 3E HIGHLAND
6. CRESTLINE RIDGE 0.47
7. SAN ANTONIO HEIGHTS 0.43 2NW RANCHO CUCA
8. MT BALDY VILLAGE 0.42
9. CRESTLINE 0.40
10.RUNNING SPRINGS 0.40


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
KEARNY MESA 0.12 455 6NNW SAN DIEGO
SAN ONOFRE 0.10 162 7NNW OCEANSIDE
ENCINITAS 0.08 242 0 ENCINITAS
MONTGOMERY FIELD 0.06 423 6NNW SAN DIEGO
FASHION VALLEY 0.05 20 3N SAN DIEGO
LAS FLORES RAWS 0.04 100 9NW OCEANSIDE
OCEANSIDE 0.03 30 1N OCEANSIDE
LINDBERGH FIELD 0.02 42 1NW SAN DIEGO
CARLSBAD AIRPORT 0.01 357 3SE CARLSBAD


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
COUSER CANYON 0.36 285 1WSW VALLEY CENTER
BONSALL CRS 0.27 185 3SSW FALLBROOK
RAINBOW CAMP 0.16 1553 2S TEMECULA
FALLBROOK 0.12 675 1S FALLBROOK
SANDIA CK RD 0.10 342 1NE FALLBROOK
VALLEY CENTER 0.06 1295 0 VALLEY CENTER
CAMP TRGT RANGE RAWS 0.04 917 7W FALLBROOK
RINCON SPRINGS 0.02 970 5NE VALLEY CENTER
GOOSE VALLEY RAWS 0.01 1530 2NNW RAMONA


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
PALOMAR CRS 0.19 2SW PALOMAR MT
PALOMAR OBSERVATORY 0.16 5560 0 PALOMAR MT
BIRCH HILL 0.09 5645 2SSW PALOMAR MT
LA JOLLA ERN TANKS 0.04 3000 3SSW PALOMAR MT
HENSHAW DAM 0.03 2750 0 LAKE HENSHAW
VOLCAN MOUNTAIN 0.02 5410
SANTA YSABEL 0.01 2990 3NW JULIAN

.ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
CORONA DEL MAR 0.59 300 2E NEWPORT BEACH
YORBA PARK 0.59 305 2SE YORBA LINDA
OCEANVIEW 0.51 43 3S GARDEN GROVE
ALAMEDA STORM CHANNEL 0.35 339 4S YORBA LINDA
ANAHEIM BARBER CITY 0.31 5 1NE SEAL BEACH
SANTA ANA ENGINEERING 0.28 170 0 SANTA ANA
GARDEN GROVE 0.24 80 2NW GARDEN GROVE
SAN JUAN GUARD 0.24 660 8E MISSION VIEJO
FULLERTON CREEK 0.23 95 0 FULLERTON
GILBERT RETARDING BSN 0.23 100 2WSW ANAHEIM
WESTMINSTER CHANNEL 0.20 40 2SW GARDEN GROVE
HUNTINGTON BEACH 0.19 20 3N HUNTINGTON BEACH
FULLERTON AIRPORT 0.18 96 1W FULLERTON
CARBON CANYON DAM 0.16 403 2NW YORBA LINDA
JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT 0.16 50 4W IRVINE
COSTA MESA 0.16 47 3NNE NEWPORT BEACH
BEE CANYON 0.16 755 4NE IRVINE
SAN DIEGO CK @ CULVER 0.16 70 1SSE IRVINE
YORBA RESERVOIR 0.16 300 1S YORBA LINDA
VILLA PARK DAM 0.16 560 3SE YORBA LINDA
SANTA ANA DELHI CHNL 0.16 24 3NE NEWPORT BEACH
UPPER ALISO CREEK 0.16 560 1ESE LAKE FOREST
E GARDEN GVE/WNTRSBRG 0.15 120 2NW SANTA ANA
MILLER BASIN 0.13 220 1SW YORBA LINDA
COTO DE CAZA 0.12 730 1ESE RANCHO SANTA MARG
SAN DIEGO CK @ CAMPUS 0.12 20 0 IRVINE
LAGUNA BCH @ WOODLAND 0.12 47 1NE LAGUNA BEACH
LAGUNA AUDUBON 0.11 314 3W MISSION VIEJO
MOULTON PEAK REPEATER 0.11 888 3NE LAGUNA BEACH
BREA OLINDA 0.08 750 3NW YORBA LINDA
LAGUNA CYN REPEATER 0.08 530 2NW LAGUNA BEACH
UPPER OSO CREEK 0.08 420 1E LAKE FOREST
BELL CANYON 0.06 700 7ENE SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO
SANTIAGO CREEK 0.04 120 1NNW SANTA ANA
EL MODENA-IRVINE 0.04 70 2N IRVINE
LAGUNA NIGUEL PARK 0.04 200 3E LAGUNA BEACH
PETERS CANYON WASH 0.03 40 3N IRVINE
SEGUNDA DESHECA 0.01 85 1NW SAN CLEMENTE


.SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
UPPER SILVERADO CYN 0.35 2880 2N SANTIAGO PK
MODJESKA CANYON 0.31 1260 5NE LAKE FOREST
SANTIAGO PEAK 0.28 5660 0 SANTIAGO PK
SILVERADO MOTORWAY 0.24 3969
SANTIAGO CREEK 0.20 1210 5NE LAKE FOREST
KSOX RADAR SITE 0.16 3092 7NW SANITAGO PK
EL CARISO 0.16 2600 2SW LAKE ELSINORE
SYLVAN MEADOWS 0.16 1892 3WSW MURRIETA
SANTA ROSA PLATEAU 0.14 1980 2SSW MURRIETA
FREMONT CANYON RAWS 0.06 1781 6SE YORBA LINDA
EL CARISO RAWS 0.05 2660 1SW LAKE ELSINORE


.RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
RIVERSIDE SOUTH 0.12 875 0 RIVERSIDE
RAILROAD CANYON DAM 0.12 1420 2E LAKE ELSINORE
LAKE MATTHEWS RAWS 0.09 1522 7SW CORONA
CLARK RAWS 0.09 1718 6SW MORENO VALLEY
PERRIS CDF 0.08 924 0 PERRIS
SKINNER LAKE 0.08 1700 4NE TEMECULA
HEMET/RYAN FIELD 0.08 1510 1WSW HEMET
RIVERSIDE AIRPORT 0.07 847 1W RIVERSIDE
TEMECULA 0.07 1180 0 TEMECULA
BEAUMONT 0.07 2624 0 BEAUMONT
PRADO DAM 0.05 460 4WNW CORONA
RIVERSIDE - MARCH ARB 0.05 1535 4SE RIVERSIDE
NORCO 0.04 650 2N CORONA
WOODCREST DAM 0.04 861 2S RIVERSIDE
FRENCH VALLEY AIRPORT 0.04 909 5NNE TEMECULA
PORTRERO CANYON 0.04 2220 1W FULLERTON
MORENO-CLARK 0.04 1810 1E MORENO VALLEY
MURRIETA CK AT TENAJA 0.04 1100 0 MURRIETA
PIGEON PASS DAM 0.03 1700 2NW MORENO VALLEY

.RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
BANNING BENCH 0.20 3619 5NE BEAUMONT
TICK RIDGE 0.04 4236 4NNW CABAZON
VISTA GRANDE 0.04 4939 6SE BANNING
ALLANDALE 0.04 5800 3NE IDYLLWILD
VISTA GRANDE RAWS 0.04 4700 6WNW SAN JACINTO PK

.SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
CUCAMONGA CANYON 0.63 1766 2NNW RANCHO CUCA
PLUNGE CREEK CANYON 0.47 1590 3E HIGHLAND
SAN ANTONIO HEIGHTS 0.43 2335 2NW RANCHO CUCA
ELY BASIN 0.35 832 1SE ONTARIO
ELDER GULCH 0.32 2933 3ENE HIGHLAND
LITTLE CHINO CK 0.28 646 1SW CHINO
ELDER CREEK 0.19 1649 2E HIGHLAND
CUCAMONGA BASIN 0.12 1551 2NW RANCHO CUCAMONGA
DAY CANYON 0.12 1880 5NW RANCHO CUCAMONGA
LARSON RANCH 0.12 2121 4NW FONTANA
CAL ST SAN BERNARDINO 0.12 1556 5NNW SAN BERNARDINO
GILBERT ST NR SBD 0.12 1120 2NE SAN BERNARDINO
CHINO HILLS 0.08 988 3SW CHINO
SMALL CANYON DAM 0.08 1810 2N HIGHLAND
HEMLOCK BURN 0.08 2280
SAN SEVAINE CHANNEL 0.07 1144 3WNW FONTANA
ONTARIO AIRPORT 0.06 922 1E ONTARIO
ONTARIO FS #4 0.04 1081 1 NW ONTARIO
CENTRAL VALLEY FIRE 0.04 1114 2SSW FONTANA
RIALTO AIRPORT 0.04 1418 0 RIALTO
RIALTO CHANNEL 0.04 1018 3S RIALTO
SAN BERNARDINO CO YRD 0.04 1033 1E SAN BERNARDINO
RECHE CANYON 0.04 1021 2W LOMA LINDA
CRAFTON RESERVOIR 0.04 2000 2E REDLANDS
WILSON CREEK 0.04 2235 5ESE REDLANDS
CHINO AIRPORT 0.03 650 1SE CHINO
DALEY SPUR 0.02 2680 5S CRESTLINE


.SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
DEER CREEK DAM 0.31 2917 6NNE RANCHO CUCA
PANORAMA POINT 0.27 3887 7WSW LAKE ARROWHEAD
CEDAR GLEN 0.24 5317 4ESE LAKE ARROWHEAD
DEEP CREEK 0.24 4839 2NE LAKE ARROWHEAD
LYTLE CREEK RAWS 0.24 2790 4WNW DEVORE
CABLE CANYON 0.23 5516 3NE DEVORE
CITY CREEK RANGER STA 0.23 2647 4SW RUNNING SPRINGS
OAK GLEN WATERSHED 0.20 4923 8NNE BEAUMONT
UPPER DAY CANYON 0.19 5768 8NE RANCHO CUCA
OAK CREEK CANYON 0.16 3676 3NNE REDLAND AIRPORT
CREST PARK 0.12 5624 6WSW LAKE ARROWHEAD
OAK GLEN FIRE 0.08 4664 3E YUCAIPA
BAILY CANYON 0.07 3388 3E DEVORE
MANZANITA FLATS 0.07 3920 3ENE ANGELUS OAKS
WILDWOOD CANYON 0.04 2946 5NNE BEAUMONT
MORMON ROCK RAWS 0.03 3300 2SW CAJON PASS
PHELAN LANDFILL 0.01 4099 1NE PHELAN




TARDY
Bill McKibben nails it

This simply has to be shared, as Bill McKibben expresses my thoughts exactly. This sentence just about says it all: "It’s as if the tobacco companies were applying for permission to put cigarette machines in cancer wards. And the White House gave Shell the license."

I haven't seen such a good metaphor for quite a while.

Here's the op-ed McKibben penned for the New York Times:

Obama’s Catastrophic Climate-Change Denial


Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Blog

A very unusual post for Neven .

Flash Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
456 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL SLOPES OF SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA BELOW 6000 FEET AND THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS FRIDAY...

.A LATE-SEASON STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING AS WELL AS MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS...ESPECIALLY IN RECENTLY
BURNED AREAS AND ON STEEP TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THE POSITION OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY THAT HEAVY
RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING EVEN IN COASTAL AND VALLEY
SECTIONS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF SAN DIEGO.

CAZ050-055>058-150800-
/O.EXT.KSGX.FF.A.0002.150515T1100Z-150516T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
456 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM PDT FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

* FROM 4 AM PDT FRIDAY THROUGH 6 PM PDT FRIDAY

* A LATE-SEASON STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

* RAINFALL RATES OF HALF AN INCH PER HOUR TO LOCALLY ONE INCH PER
HOUR COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS MUD AND DEBRIS
FLOWS. PRIMARILY AT RISK ARE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS AND STEEP OR
UNSTABLE SLOPES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

MAXWELL


Take the possible bad withe definte good of rain
From Siberia to British Columbia Arctic Wildfires Begin an Ominous Ignition

It’s abnormally warm today near Great Slave Lake, Northwest Territory. And the smell of smoke from massive fires to the west lingers in the air.

Temperatures there yesterday afternoon read 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Where I sat typing this blog in Gaithersburg, Maryland, it was a somewhat cooler 67. A north-south temperature flip-flop that has become all-too-common in recent years. A warming in the Arctic that sets the stage for gargantuan summer wildfires burning through some of the world’s greatest carbon stores. Vast and thawing permafrost deposits stretching in a great arc from Siberia through Alaska and on into Northern Canada. Immense loads of fuel for a newly forming ring of fire that is now an entirely human invention.


Link
First vort max moving through, highest rain so far is .87 in Yorba Linda CA.

She is finding them High SST's to Her liking....



Quoting 127. Patrap:

She is finding them High SST's to Her liking....






Like they have a mind of their own?
Quoting 126. Patrap:




Coming to visit you Rota!
Quoting 120. Grothar:



I thought the club was on 184th


You would know master! Do they still have a place called Platinum Paradise in I believe Ft Lauderdale?
Rota Island known as "Peaceful Island" is about to come not so peaceful........I hope it's 4,000 residents will be safe when Dolphin comes ashore. Looks like it could be a direct hit! Good Luck and God bless!
I dont like the idea of a non analog ElNino this Summer. Where are my batteries and water jugs?!
Oh yes... Next to my road maps and cash!
Quoting 129. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Coming to visit you Rota!


it might thread the needle
Rota Island known as "Peaceful Island" is about to come not so peaceful........I hope it's 4,000 residents will be safe when Dolphin comes ashore. Looks like it could be a direct hit! Good Luck and God bless!
Sit back and enjoy the ride, tropical ATL is getting so hard to predict, just be prepared is all you can do...
Are the last few frames of loop where the clouds get wispy near the center, is that the thunderstorms being disrupted?

Been light and drizzly all day. Our humidity's been low enough that the stuff hung on the line yesterday made it to "pretty dry" by late afternoon, and I think most of the rain is evaporating before it gets to us - but still, good weather and I look forward to what we get overnight into tomorrow.

Quoting 136. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Are the last few frames of loop where the clouds get wispy near the center, is that the thunderstorms being disrupted?




No, quite the contrary. Looks like major strengthening phase to me.

Quoting 136. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Are the last few frames of loop where the clouds get wispy near the center, is that the thunderstorms being disrupted?


Not sure, but the microwave imagery from CIMSS shows up better.

Took my last finals of the semester today... one year of college down!

Guam is dodging a bullet from this one; it'll be a nasty day there, but it could've been much worse. Dry air has continually held the upper hand over Dolphin, and that hasn't yet changed.



Quoting 137. nonblanche:

Been light and drizzly all day. Our humidity's been low enough that the stuff hung on the line yesterday made it to "pretty dry" by late afternoon, and I think most of the rain is evaporating before it gets to us - but still, good weather and I look forward to what we get overnight into tomorrow.



Some rain here in Truckee a few minutes ago. I sure hope it doesn't just spit on and off, teasing me for for ten days.
Please excuse because I do not know where this is headed or it's future but canes like this go annular..
Quoting 140. MAweatherboy1:

Took my last finals of the semester today... one year of college down!

Guam is dodging a bullet from this one; it'll be a nasty day there, but it could've been much worse. Dry air has continually held the upper hand over Dolphin, and that hasn't yet changed.






You should look at CIMMS microwave, it's a few hours fresh
Quoting 139. hydrus:

Not sure, but the microwave imagery from CIMSS shows up better.


dry air
Quoting 145. Gearsts:

dry air
I am wondering if Dolphin going to thread Guam and Rota.
The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 1.26
Big islands N & S are far enough away but that little one in the middle is going to get a wallop.
Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 1.26


Going to be an interesting year for sure. I see some flooding concerns this year with all the rain we've had this dry season.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



*** ENSO Extremes and Diversity: Dynamics, Teleconnections, and Impacts

Multiple-Apogee Highly Elliptical Orbits for Continuous Meteorological Imaging of Polar Regions: Challenging the Classical 12-h Molniya Orbit Concept

!!! Rep. John Fleming (R-La.) calls study 'nonsense science' (video) Must see. I'd like to know what people versed in science and statistical techniques think.

A Film Explores Curacao's Effort to Become a Caribbean Haven for Coral

!!! First fully warm-blooded fish: The opah or moonfish



*** Left-handed cosmic magnetic field could explain missing antimatter



*** Cause of galactic death: Strangulation



!!! As carbon emissions climb, so too has Earth's capacity to remove CO2 from atmosphere

*** Climate scientists find warming in higher atmosphere: Elusive tropospheric hot spot located

*** Valuable Massachusetts ecosystems shrinking, doing more with less, study shows

!!! Antarctic ice shelf Larsen C is thinning from above and below

Satellite mapping reveals agricultural slowdown in Latin America

Iconic Indian fish on the brink of extinction

New class of 'dark' globular star clusters discovered around giant galaxy Centaurus A

Hubble Catches a Stellar Exodus in Action

* Los Angeles can expect number of extreme heat days to rise: study

Duke Energy pleads guilty to environmental crimes in North Carolina, fined $102 million

Texas drought eases, but is relief in sight for California?

The really scary thing about wildfires is how they can worsen climate change

!!! A Sharp Spike in Honeybee Deaths Deepens a Worrisome Trend

* Fruit Flies Are Shown to Enter a Fearlike State



NASA: What Are The Chances Of Another Katrina? (video)
Brace,brace, brace'....

Rush all final preps and secure for the event.



Quoting 143. Gearsts:


What's the matter bro.
Quoting 134. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Rota Island known as "Peaceful Island" is about to come not so peaceful........I hope it's 4,000 residents will be safe when Dolphin comes ashore. Looks like it could be a direct hit! Good Luck and God bless!


Rota is very a very cool place-- great diving but a little shark centric.

Good Cannabis if that is your thing.
Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:

The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 1.26



and in other news ST look at this




-13.4 and still falling
A super high-resolution (every 2.5 minutes at 0.5 km) visible satellite loop of Typhoon Dolphin at sunrise on May 15 has been put together by The University of Wisconsin CIMSS group, using imagery from the new Japanese Himawari-8 satellite. More info and hi-res infrared loops can be found at the CIMSS satellite blog. A larger view is available from NOAA. Can't wait for the Atlantic to get a satellite instrument like this when GOES-R is launched in spring 2016!

Jeff Masters
Quoting 151. BaltimoreBrian:


!!! Rep. John Fleming (R-La.) calls study 'nonsense science' (video) Must see. I'd like to know what people versed in science and statistical techniques think.

Louisiana?  I'm thinking his problem is self-correcting, one way or another.
West Pack: Typhoon Dolphin is rolling in Guam right now and is already causing Tropical Storm winds. Take cover immediately. It should be a 5 hour long+ event. It is getting stronger and more organized and may climb to Cat 3 before landfall.

95W is looking disorganized and models dropped near term development.

Read more here
West Pack: Typhoon Dolphin is rolling in Guam right now and is already causing Tropical Storm winds. Take cover immediately. It should be a 5 hour long+ event. It is getting stronger and more organized and may climb to Cat 3 before landfall.

95W is looking disorganized and models dropped near term development.

Read more here
Has Dolphin taken a jog back towards Guam?
Typhoon 1 Emergency is the order of the Day thru the Night.

Coming up on High Noon there top of the Hour.

Good Luck.

Base Radial Velocity .50 degree elevation



That 9 to 12 Quadrant is pegged on Velocities and is close to obs.

We're definitely in for some fantastic near real time views.


Quoting 160. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Has Dolphin taken a jog back towards Guam?


The earlier Rota/Tinian model needs to be corrected to a Guam/Rota model.
THUNDERRR!!!! First time I've heard it in 2 years. Kinda missed it. It's also raining really hard by Cali standards.
LOL mega drought in Texas!Another one bits the dust!
167. yoboi
Quoting 166. help4u:

LOL mega drought in Texas!Another one bits the dust!



Going by historical cycles California will be next.....
Not buying this nino forecast yet

Some should read more of the blogs in the directory.

Seems ya missed one.


Quoting 61. LowerCal:

This week in California some late season precipitation has eased the deficits of precipitation needed to end drought in the southern Central Valley and along the northern border with Nevada.





Map source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_mo nitoring/regional_monitoring/addpcp.gif
(BTW if anyone knows of an archive by date of the above map I would appreciate a link.)
Note the blooming CDO thru the loop



.30(KRAL) and .39 Downtown Riverside, not bad for phase one....
Still raining at my location in Soo Cal, off and on light/moderate showers since 2pm PDT.....another vort max comes through tomorrow with higher rain totals expected/forecast. Highest rain total in Soo Cal was on Santiago Peak in Orange County I believe with .92 inch today.

Just for Pedley...........RIVERSIDE AIRPORT 0.30 847 1W RIVERSIDE.

Probably less than 1/4" thus far at my place.......but as I type, it is raining now. Not huge totals by any means but decent amounts by Cali standards.



PRELIMINARY STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
645 PM PDT THURSDAY MAY 14 2015


RAWS MESONET ASOS AND ALERT 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF

_________________________645 PM THURSDAY_________________________


.TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL ZONES

STATION PRECIP(IN) MILES/DIRECTION FROM

1. SANTIAGO PEAK 0.92
2. YORBA PARK 0.87 2SE YORBA LINDA
3. CUCAMONGA CANYON 0.79 2NNW RANCHO CUCA
4. LYTLE CREEK RAWS 0.78 4WNW DEVORE
5. CRESTLINE RIDGE 0.77
6. CORONA DEL MAR 0.75 2E NEWPORT BEACH
7. RUNNING SPRINGS 0.72
8. PLUNGE CREEK CANYON 0.71 3E HIGHLAND
PANORAMA POINT 0.71 7WSW LAKE ARROWHEAD
OAK GLEN WATERSHED 0.71 8NNE BEAUMONT

.SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
KEARNY MESA 0.14 455 6NNW SAN DIEGO
LAS FLORES RAWS 0.14 100 9NW OCEANSIDE
MONTGOMERY FIELD 0.13 423 6NNW SAN DIEGO
SAN ONOFRE 0.10 162 7NNW OCEANSIDE
FASHION VALLEY 0.09 20 3N SAN DIEGO
ENCINITAS 0.08 242 0 ENCINITAS
BROWN FIELD 0.06 524 5SE CHULA VISTA
LINDBERGH FIELD 0.05 42 1NW SAN DIEGO
TIJUANA ESTUARY 0.04 20
OCEANSIDE 0.03 30 1N OCEANSIDE
CAMP ELLIOT RAWS 0.03 539 8NNW SAN DIEGO
CARLSBAD AIRPORT 0.01 357 3SE CARLSBAD
POINT LOMA 0.01 364 4WSW SAN DIEGO


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
COUSER CANYON 0.40 285 1WSW VALLEY CENTER
RAINBOW CAMP 0.31 1553 2S TEMECULA
HARBISON CANYON 0.29 1240 1SE LAKESIDE
BONSALL CRS 0.27 185 3SSW FALLBROOK
FLINN SPRINGS 0.24 880 2E LAKESIDE
SANDIA CK RD 0.22 342 1NE FALLBROOK
CAMP TRGT RANGE RAWS 0.22 917 7W FALLBROOK
BARONA 0.20 1280 3SSE RAMONA
FALLBROOK 0.16 675 1S FALLBROOK
SANTEE 0.16 300 2W SANTEE
SD COUNTRY ESTATES 0.16 1660 5SE RAMONA
GRANITE HILLS 0.16 533 2E EL CAJON
ALPINE RAWS 0.16 2041 2ESE ALPINE
LAKE MURRAY 0.12 530 1NW LA MESA
MT. WOODSON 0.10 1720 4NW POWAY
LOS COCHES CREEK 0.08 560 4NNE EL CAJON
LA MESA 0.08 530 0 LA MESA
VALLEY CENTER 0.07 1295 0 VALLEY CENTER
RAMONA 0.06 1420 0 RAMONA
RAMONA AIRPORT 0.05 1400 2W RAMONA
VALLEY CENTER RAWS 0.05 1370 1ENE VALLEY CENTER
GOOSE VALLEY RAWS 0.05 1530 2NNW RAMONA
PARADISE CREEK 0.04 950 3ENE VALLEY CENTER
MIRAMAR LAKE 0.04 130 3ESE MIRA MESA
LAKE WOHLFORD 0.04 1490 1SE VALLEY CENTER
RINCON SPRINGS 0.03 970 5NE VALLEY CENTER
RANCHO BERNARDO 0.03 690 0 SGX OFFICE
COLE GRADE RD 0.02 750 5N JULIAN
DEER SPRINGS 0.01 1000 1SE ESCONDIDO
SAN MIGUEL RAWS 0.01 425 7SSE LA MESA


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
LAKE CUYAMACA 0.64 4560 1NE CUYAMACA MT
PINE HILLS FS 0.56 3645 3SW JULIAN
PALOMAR OBSERVATORY 0.52 5560 0 PALOMAR MT
JULIAN 0.51 4230 1E JULIAN
PINE HILLS RAWS 0.49 3600 5SW JULIAN
ECHO DELL 0.44 3060 8NW PINE VALLEY
JULIAN RAWS 0.43 4240 0 JULIAN
PALOMAR MOUNTAIN RAWS 0.41 5530 0 PALOMAR MT
VOLCAN MOUNTAIN 0.40 5410
DESCANSO RS 0.40 3650 4WNW PINE VALLEY
PALOMAR CRS 0.36 2SW PALOMAR MT
BIRCH HILL 0.33 5645 2SSW PALOMAR MT
HENSHAW DAM 0.31 2750 0 LAKE HENSHAW
SANTA YSABEL 0.29 2990 3NW JULIAN
DESCANSO RAWS 0.27 3480 7NW PINE VALLEY
LA JOLLA AMAGO 0.24 2400 9ENE VALLEY CENTER
OTAY MOUNTAIN RAWS 0.20 3283 7SSE JAMUL
LA JOLLA ERN TANKS 0.16 3000 3SSW PALOMAR MT
MOUNT LAGUNA RAWS 0.15 5760 2N PINE VALLEY
MT LAGUNA 0.12 6000 0 MT LAGUNA
CAMPO 1N 0.08 2610 1N CAMPO
CAMERON RAWS 0.07 3443 4N CAMPO
RANCHITA RAWS 0.05 4180 5WSW BORREGO SPR
OAK GROVE RAWS 0.05 2770 2NE PALOMAR MT
RANCHITA 0.04 4008 6WSW BORREGO SPR
TIERRA DEL SOL 0.03 4000 1W BOULEVARD
WARNER SPRINGS 0.02 3040


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS

NO PRECIPITATION REPORTED


.ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
YORBA PARK 0.87 305 2SE YORBA LINDA
CORONA DEL MAR 0.75 300 2E NEWPORT BEACH
ALAMEDA STORM CHANNEL 0.67 339 4S YORBA LINDA
OCEANVIEW 0.59 43 3S GARDEN GROVE
EL MODENA-IRVINE 0.55 70 2N IRVINE
SANTA ANA ENGINEERING 0.51 170 0 SANTA ANA
SAN DIEGO CK @ CULVER 0.40 70 1SSE IRVINE
CARBON CANYON DAM 0.36 403 2NW YORBA LINDA
BEE CANYON 0.36 755 4NE IRVINE
WESTMINSTER CHANNEL 0.36 40 2SW GARDEN GROVE
YORBA RESERVOIR 0.35 300 1S YORBA LINDA
VILLA PARK DAM 0.35 560 3SE YORBA LINDA
JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT 0.33 50 4W IRVINE
COSTA MESA 0.32 47 3NNE NEWPORT BEACH
UPPER ALISO CREEK 0.32 560 1ESE LAKE FOREST
FULLERTON CREEK 0.31 95 0 FULLERTON
ANAHEIM BARBER CITY 0.31 5 1NE SEAL BEACH
E GARDEN GVE/WNTRSBRG 0.31 120 2NW SANTA ANA
MOULTON PEAK REPEATER 0.31 888 3NE LAGUNA BEACH
GILBERT RETARDING BSN 0.27 100 2WSW ANAHEIM
GARDEN GROVE 0.27 80 2NW GARDEN GROVE
SANTIAGO CREEK 0.27 120 1NNW SANTA ANA
FULLERTON AIRPORT 0.26 96 1W FULLERTON
BREA OLINDA 0.24 750 3NW YORBA LINDA
BREA 2W 0.24 340 4NE FULLERTON
SAN JUAN GUARD 0.24 660 8E MISSION VIEJO
SAN DIEGO CK @ CAMPUS 0.24 20 0 IRVINE
SANTA ANA DELHI CHNL 0.24 24 3NE NEWPORT BEACH
UPPER OSO CREEK 0.24 420 1E LAKE FOREST
PICO RETARDING BASIN 0.24 760 2NW SAN CLEMENTE
LAGUNA AUDUBON 0.23 314 3W MISSION VIEJO
LAGUNA BCH @ WOODLAND 0.23 47 1NE LAGUNA BEACH
LAGUNA CYN REPEATER 0.20 530 2NW LAGUNA BEACH
LAGUNA NIGUEL PARK 0.20 200 3E LAGUNA BEACH
SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO 0.20 75 2NE DANA POINT
HUNTINGTON BEACH 0.19 20 3N HUNTINGTON BEACH
MILLER BASIN 0.18 220 1SW YORBA LINDA
COTO DE CAZA 0.16 730 1ESE RANCHO SANTA MARG
SEGUNDA DESHECA 0.12 85 1NW SAN CLEMENTE
PETERS CANYON WASH 0.08 40 3N IRVINE
BELL CANYON 0.07 700 7ENE SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO


.SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
SILVERADO MOTORWAY 0.67 3969
UPPER SILVERADO CYN 0.67 2880 2N SANTIAGO PK
MODJESKA CANYON 0.59 1260 5NE LAKE FOREST
KSOX RADAR SITE 0.52 3092 7NW SANITAGO PK
SANTIAGO PEAK 0.51 5660 0 SANTIAGO PK
SANTIAGO CREEK 0.47 1210 5NE LAKE FOREST
FREMONT CANYON RAWS 0.43 1781 6SE YORBA LINDA
SYLVAN MEADOWS 0.40 1892 3WSW MURRIETA
SANTA ROSA PLATEAU 0.33 1980 2SSW MURRIETA
EL CARISO 0.27 2600 2SW LAKE ELSINORE
EL CARISO RAWS 0.27 2660 1SW LAKE ELSINORE


.RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
TEMECULA 0.51 1180 0 TEMECULA
BEAUMONT RAWS 0.46 2680 1E BEAUMONT
RAILROAD CANYON DAM 0.43 1420 2E LAKE ELSINORE
RIVERSIDE SOUTH 0.39 875 0 RIVERSIDE
BEAUMONT 0.39 2624 0 BEAUMONT
WOODCREST DAM 0.36 861 2S RIVERSIDE
PORTRERO CANYON 0.35 2220 1W FULLERTON
MURRIETA CK AT TENAJA 0.31 1100 0 MURRIETA
RIVERSIDE AIRPORT 0.30 847 1W RIVERSIDE
LAKE MATTHEWS RAWS 0.29 1522 7SW CORONA
NORCO 0.28 650 2N CORONA
SKINNER LAKE 0.28 1700 4NE TEMECULA
GILMAN HOT SPRINGS 0.28 1511 4NE PERRIS
CLARK RAWS 0.28 1718 6SW MORENO VALLEY
FRENCH VALLEY AIRPORT 0.27 909 5NNE TEMECULA
PRADO DAM 0.25 460 4WNW CORONA
HEMET/RYAN FIELD 0.24 1510 1WSW HEMET
PIGEON PASS DAM 0.19 1700 2NW MORENO VALLEY
VAIL LAKE 0.18 1470 9E TEMECULA
CRANSTON RAWS 0.17 1950 6E HEMET
MORENO-CLARK 0.16 1810 1E MORENO VALLEY
RIVERSIDE - MARCH ARB 0.15 1535 4SE RIVERSIDE
PERRIS CDF 0.12 924 0 PERRIS


.RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
BANNING BENCH 0.44 3619 5NE BEAUMONT
POPPET FLAT RAWS 0.42 3830 4S BANNING
ALLANDALE 0.40 5800 3NE IDYLLWILD
VISTA GRANDE RAWS 0.32 4700 6WNW SAN JACINTO PK
SAGE RAWS 0.32 2560 9SSE HEMET
VISTA GRANDE 0.31 4939 6SE BANNING
KEENWILD RAWS 0.30 4920 6SW IDYLLWILD
TICK RIDGE 0.28 4236 4NNW CABAZON
SNOW CK 7N IDYLLWILD 0.20 6800 3N SAN JACINTO PK
LIVE OAK CANYON 0.08 6000 10SW IDYLLWILD


.COACHELLA VALLEY

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
WHITEWATER TROUT FARM 0.08 2200 6WNW DRT HOT SPRINGS


.SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
CUCAMONGA CANYON 0.79 1766 2NNW RANCHO CUCA
PLUNGE CREEK CANYON 0.71 1590 3E HIGHLAND
SAN ANTONIO HEIGHTS 0.55 2335 2NW RANCHO CUCA
ELY BASIN 0.55 832 1SE ONTARIO
ELDER GULCH 0.51 2933 3ENE HIGHLAND
ELDER CREEK 0.51 1649 2E HIGHLAND
LITTLE CHINO CK 0.48 646 1SW CHINO
ONTARIO AIRPORT 0.44 922 1E ONTARIO
CAL ST SAN BERNARDINO 0.44 1556 5NNW SAN BERNARDINO
DAY CANYON 0.39 1880 5NW RANCHO CUCAMONGA
SAN SEVAINE CHANNEL 0.39 1144 3WNW FONTANA
HIGHLAND PLUNGE CREEK 0.39 1911 4ESE HIGHLAND
RECHE CANYON 0.36 1021 2W LOMA LINDA
HEMLOCK BURN 0.36 2280
CENTRAL VALLEY FIRE 0.35 1114 2SSW FONTANA
RIALTO AIRPORT 0.35 1418 0 RIALTO
GILBERT ST NR SBD 0.34 1120 2NE SAN BERNARDINO
LARSON RANCH 0.31 2121 4NW FONTANA
GLEN HELEN REG PARK 0.31 2000 1S DEVORE
SMALL CANYON DAM 0.31 1810 2N HIGHLAND
SAN BERNARDINO CO YRD 0.28 1033 1E SAN BERNARDINO
CRAFTON RESERVOIR 0.28 2000 2E REDLANDS
WILSON CREEK 0.28 2235 5ESE REDLANDS
CHINO AIRPORT 0.27 650 1SE CHINO
YUCAIPA REGIONAL 0.27 2620 6E REDLANDS
RIALTO CHANNEL 0.23 1018 3S RIALTO
CUCAMONGA BASIN 0.20 1551 2NW RANCHO CUCAMONGA
ONTARIO FS #4 j


Scientists: Earth Endangered by New Strain of Fact-Resistant Humans
By Andy Borowitz

MINNEAPOLIS (The Borowitz Report) – Scientists have discovered a powerful new strain of fact-resistant humans who are threatening the ability of Earth to sustain life, a sobering new study reports.

The research, conducted by the University of Minnesota, identifies a virulent strain of humans who are virtually immune to any form of verifiable knowledge, leaving scientists at a loss as to how to combat them.

“These humans appear to have all the faculties necessary to receive and process information,” Davis Logsdon, one of the scientists who contributed to the study, said. “And yet, somehow, they have developed defenses that, for all intents and purposes, have rendered those faculties totally inactive.”

More worryingly, Logsdon said, “As facts have multiplied, their defenses against those facts have only grown more powerful.”


Link
Didn't see your post Ped....LOL
Quoting 172. PedleyCA:



.30(KRAL) and .39 Downtown Riverside, not bad for phase one....


Not bad at all! I hope tomorrow's wave comes in north of border so you get it good to Ped
It's going to be a horrible 2015 it's so obvious now why we are so dry......I don't know what's worse the unlikely event of a hurricane but ad healthy green non drought ridden hazy dusty rock in the sea or as previously mentioned with no chance of a hurricane place looks dead literally
It looks like the ISS will be in the vicinity of Guam in the next half hour or so. Maybe some decent views of Dolphin from one of the cameras. It's daylight there now.

Live video streams at:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/iss-hdev-payload

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-iss-stream

(Different cameras, different views.)
Guam had their driest month on record in February 2015 (records begin in 1957). Maybe the rains will bring some benefits too?


RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN, GUAM
1015 AM CHST MON MAR 2 2015

...RECORD LOW MONTHLY RAINFALL SET AT GUAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...

Maybe not, rainfall is still 3" above the the YTD average despite February.

Saipan seems to have set a new record low for the date by 2 degrees. Pretty good since the extreme range is only 27 degrees, 63 to 90.
181. MahFL
Wow this is scary :

Quoting 181. MahFL:

Wow this is scary :






Would NOT want it heading toward my place!
Rota Island seems to be where the center will come closest but they have stopped reporting.
Some boomers firing now in this area!


Flash Flood Warning
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
CAC073-150530-
/O.NEW.KSGX.FF.W.0003.150515T0327Z-150515T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
827 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 1030 PM PDT

* AT 826 PM PDT...GAUGE REPORTS INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
EL CAJON...LA MESA...CORONADO...LINDA VISTA...TIERRASANTA...
DOWNTOWN SAN DIEGO...MISSION VALLEY...HILLCREST...NORTH PARK...
MIDWAY DISTRICT INCLUDING LINDBERGH FIELD...MISSION BEACH...POINT
LOMA...SANTEE...LEMON GROVE...COLLEGE EAST...KEARNY MESA...LAKE
MURRAY...SCRIPPS RANCH...POINT LOMA HEIGHTS AND QUALCOMM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

&&

LAT...LON 3278 11725 3292 11706 3281 11692 3268 11713
3271 11716 3269 11717 3268 11715 3268 11716
3269 11723 3272 11721 3270 11717 3273 11718
3273 11722 3267 11724 3268 11724
Dolphin has a pretty impressive presentation on radar despite a pretty lackluster presentation on satellite (at least, given its assessed intensity). Those purples in the northern eyewall represent 110-115kt winds at an elevation of roughly ~6400ft, FWIW.

Typhoon Dolphin has yawed to the left and looks to be taking a Due 270 bearing.


NWS HomepageLocal weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
756 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2015

CAC065-073-150500-
/O.NEW.KSGX.FA.Y.0008.150515T0256Z-150515T0500Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN DIEGO CA-RIVERSIDE CA-
756 PM PDT THU MAY 14 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...
SOUTHWESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 1000 PM PDT

* AT 754 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY WILL BE ONE-
HALF INCH TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...THOUGH THERE WILL BE LARGE
VARIATIONS IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE LITTLE
OR NO RAINFALL.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CHULA VISTA...OCEANSIDE...CARLSBAD...TEMECULA...EL CAJON...VISTA...
ENCINITAS...NATIONAL CITY...LA MESA...SOUTHERN LAKE ELSINORE...
POWAY...IMPERIAL BEACH...RAMONA...CORONADO...DEL MAR...ALPINE...
FALLBROOK...MISSION BEACH...HILLCREST AND POINT LOMA.

LAT...LON 3269 11714 3270 11715 3263 11714 3269 11723
3272 11721 3270 11716 3271 11716 3272 11717
3273 11722 3267 11724 3268 11725 3297 11726
3317 11736 3317 11735 3339 11758 3362 11737
3366 11678 3258 11666 3254 11712

$$

MAXWELL
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Quoting 186. Patrap:

Dolphin has yawed to the left and looks to be taking a Due 270 bearing.




Thought I saw a jog towards Guam earlier.....hope it misses!
The impact is well under way as the eyewall has reached the Islands.

191. MahFL
Oh yes, she seems headed straight for Guam now.
Guam centered in frame.

One can track the wobbles easier in this mode.



Rain coming down HARD and even some lightning in downtown LA. I was soaked in seconds!
Think dolphin will become a category 3 before it hits guam? Hopefully not though.
195. MahFL
Quoting 194. TimTheWxMan:

Think dolphin will become a category 3 before it hits guam? Hopefully not though.


Guam can deal with a Cat 3 quite easily. Building codes there require 170 mph wind capability.
Dry and boring for the rest of the year...
Today marks the beginning of the 2015 Pacific hurricane season. With an intensifying El Nino contributing to a favorable base state, this season is slated to be an active one, and I'm predicting a hyperactive to near record breaking season with 21-23 named storms, 13 to 15 hurricanes, 6 to 8 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of ~200 units. For reference, 1992 holds the record for the highest number of named storms (27), highest number of hurricanes (16, alongside 1990 and 2014), highest number of major hurricanes (10), and highest ACE index (290 units).

If Dolphin does not jog back to WNW,looks like it will affect the north side of Guam the worst. Where are the military base's Pat? All combined or separate?
Quoting 193. LAGotNoWeather:

Rain coming down HARD and even some lightning in downtown LA. I was soaked in seconds!


Yup, pouring at my place in the mountains in San Diego County, Round 2 looks pretty good for rain on satellite!



Quoting 196. CaribBoy:

Dry and boring for the rest of the year...
!



$$ 1,089.50 IN THE RAIN FUND.....SAVING UP FOR YOU

Radar is sketchy as the frame jump shows.

Winds and rain rates will make the signal drop out for a time or altogether as the eye closes in.




WDPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING A 142251Z GPM IMAGE
REVEALS SLIGHTLY-BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN APPARENT
MICROWAVE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND THE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 95 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TYPHOON
DOLPHIN IS NOW LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. TYPHOON 07W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TYPHOON DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MODIFIED STR. MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE VWS WILL PERSIST; HOWEVER, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED, LEADING TO A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION RATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. BY TAU 36, THE
STEERING STR IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING
TYPHOON 07W TO BEGIN THE TURN POLEWARD. AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS,
TY DOLPHIN WILL GAIN AN INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ALLOWING IT TO FURTHER INTENSIFY.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY DOLPHIN WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND
MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. CONCURRENTLY, THE COMBINED
EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL IMPACT THE SYSTEM,
LEADING TO ITS WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN CONSISTENT ON A
TRACK BETWEEN GUAM AND SAIPAN. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
Quoting 196. CaribBoy:

Dry and boring for the rest of the year...




Do a rain dance nonstop for 24 hours, maybe that's the ticket! :O)
Quoting 202. Patrap:




Thanks Pat!
Quoting 201. Patrap:


Radar is sketchy as the frame jump shows.

Winds and rain rates will make the signal drop out for a time or altogether as the eye closes in.







Looks bad for Guam........glad they prepare well for Typhoons.......will still do some serious damage!
Wowza,

Look at that eye in the Base Radial Velocity mode.



Quoting 207. Patrap:

Wowza,

Look at that eye in the Base Radial Velocity mode.





Looks like the swing to the north might have begun (based solely on my amateurish interpretation of this last animation).
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP072015
255 PM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

...246 PM CHST...0446 UTC...WFO GUAM RADAR POSITION ESTIMATE...

AT 246 PM CHST...0426 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
145.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 67 MILES EAST OF THE GUAM DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR AT ELEVATION 0.5 DEGREES AND A HEIGHT OF 5600 FEET.
THIS IS 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND 110 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
TINIAN AND SAIPAN. WIND VELOCITY ARE NEAR 94KTS AT 3500FT ON NORTH
SIDE.

MOVEMENT IS ESTIMATED AT 10 MPH (9 KT) IN A WEST DIRECTION (280
DEGREES). DUE TO SLANT RANGE EFFECT...MOVEMENT CONFIDENCE IS FAIR.

SUMMARY OF 246 PM CHST...0446 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.5N 145.8E
ELEVATION...5600 FEET

ABOUT 67 MILES...090 DEGREES...E OF THE GUAM RADAR.
POSITION CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION IS GOOD BASED
ON A COMPLETE 25NM DIAMETER EYE. SMALLER EYE ELEMENTS ARE
NOW GONE GIVING A NEW LARGER EYE DIAMETER.

NEXT POSITION ESTIMATE WILL BE AROUND 345 PM.


Slowed down from 16 to 10


Los Angeles area got some decent numbers....
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP072015
255 PM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

At 2:46 PM CHST, the eye of typhoon DOLPHIN was located by radar near 13.5N 145.8E or about 67 miles east of Guam Doppler Weather Radar at elevation 0.5 degrees and a height of 5600 feet. This is about 60 miles southeast of Rota and 110 miles south southeast of Tinian and Saipan. Wind velocity are near 94 knots at 3500 feet on north side.

General movement of the typhoon is westward at an estimated 10 MPH (9 knots).
Quoting 208. oldnewmex:


Looks like the swing to the north might have begun (based solely on my amateurish interpretation of this last animation).


Looks that way......gonna be close.......Hurricane winds extend out like 35 miles from center........maybe it shoots the gap between Guam and Rota and spares everyone the worst.
Quoting 210. PedleyCA:


Los Angeles area got some decent numbers....


Glad to hear........I just been posting San Diego,Orange and Inland Empire numbers. Decent rain for the supposedly weak #1 wave....#2 looking good (fingers crossed) and now they saying #3, all in quick succession......I had some good showers the last hour and a half....quiet now...waiting for #2......bring it on!
Quoting 210. PedleyCA:


Los Angeles area got some decent numbers....


Did you get any?
Quoting 210. PedleyCA:


Los Angeles area got some decent numbers....


Opids Camp always gets slammed......1.59....excellent!
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
301 PM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

...WINDS...
as typhoon DOLPHIN approaches.. tropical storm force winds will slowly increase and may reach typhoon force at 70-80 MPH around 700 to 900 PM ChST. Tropical Storm Force Winds should end about 500 AM ChST Saturday morning. Remember.. winds could significantly be higher if DOLPHIN veers northward as it approaches.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
Seas of 20 feet or higher are expected through tonight. This will produce dangerous surf of 16-22 feet along north and west facing shores with even higher surf on east facing shores through this afternoon as the center passes. Coastal inundation of 2-3 feet is likely, especially near high tide late this afternoon around 5:45 PM ChST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
Rainfall of 3-7 inches is expected through Saturday. Local flooding is likely.

179. BaltimoreBrian
3:07 AM GMT on May 15, 2015


Guam had their driest month on record in February 2015 (records begin in 1957). Maybe the rains will bring some benefits too?


Plug this in to the pattern -

Taiwan's worst drought in 67 years

BBC video report
Link

This is the only webcam I could find on Guam, inside the Micronesia Mall in Dededo. I have a feeling things may get knarly in there if the skylight can't hold up to the winds in the eyewall.

Edit: Just checked the weather station in Guam and it's getting ugly. Winds at 65 gusting to 88 mph. Pressure at 29.25 in.
Quoting 218. Huracan94:

Link

This is the only webcam I could find on Guam, inside the Micronesia Mall in Dededo. I have a feeling things may get knarly in there if the skylight can't hold up to the winds in the eyewall.

Edit: Just checked the weather station in Guam and it's getting ugly. Winds at 65 gusting to 88 mph. Pressure at 29.25 in.


I'm glad you finally found a decent cam - could get interesting in 2 or 3 hours. Funny thing - I have no doubt the island is loaded with cameras; they just happen to be on military property, therefore unavailable for viewing.
Quoting 218. Huracan94:

Link

This is the only webcam I could find on Guam, inside the Micronesia Mall in Dededo. I have a feeling things may get knarly in there if the skylight can't hold up to the winds in the eyewall.

Edit: Just checked the weather station in Guam and it's getting ugly. Winds at 65 gusting to 88 mph. Pressure at 29.25 in.



Thank you, I was searching fervently for any kind of webcam on Guam. I can't stand tracking a storm blind.


Quoting 219. oldnewmex:


I'm glad you finally found a decent cam - could get interesting in 2 or 3 hours. Funny thing - I have no doubt the island is loaded with cameras; they just happen to be on military property, therefore unavailable for viewing.

Quoting 220. wxgeek723:



Thank you, I was searching fervently for any kind of webcam on Guam. I can't stand tracking a storm blind.

Yall are welcome :)
I see that people are starting to clear out of the halls now. Probably making their way to designated shelters within the building.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Special Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST May 15 2015
================================

A tropical low situated to the west of the Solomon Islands is no longer expected to develop in the Eastern Region area of responsibility.

This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the 2014/15 season. The next Tropical Cyclone Outlook will be issued on November 1 2015.
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM WP072015
400 PM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

At 3:50 PM ChST, the eye of typhoon DOLPHIN located by radar near 13.5N 145.6E or about 50 miles east of the Guam Doppler Weather Radar at elevation 0.5 degrees and a height of 4000 feet. This is 50 miles south southeast of Rota and 110 miles south of Tinian and Saipan. Wind velocity are near 105 knots at 3200 feet on north side.

General movement of the typhoon is westward at an estimate speed of 12 MPH (10 knots).
Our weather backs it up have you seen it this hot and dry in recent times?

Quoting 168. wunderkidcayman:

Not buying this nino forecast yet



Current conditions at
Andersen, Mariana Is, Andersen Air Force Base (PGUA)
Lat: 13.58NLon: 144.93
Heavy Rain Fog and Windy

77F

25C
Humidity 100%
Wind Speed N 54 G 79 mph
Barometer 29.28 in (990.5 mb)
Dewpoint 77F (25C)
Visibility 0.25 mi
Heat Index 78F (26C)
Last update 15 May 2:58 pm ChST

More Information:

Local Forecast Office
More Local Wx
3 Day History
Mobile Weather


We had wind speeds maxing at this strength during hurricane Jeanne in the Tampa Bay area in 2004. This is the wind speed at which things start feeling scary.
Appears the radio station I was listening to for the past 2 days near Hagatna, Guam is now offline.

Hagatna current weather is showing near hurricane winds (70 MPH)
Link
Lindbergh Field (San Diego Airport) is San Diego's official site for keeping stats for the weather. Thus far from the storm it has received 1.57 inches of rain. With this amount of rain it will put May 2015 into the top 5 wettest Mays since 1850! With 2 more waves to go a real possibility exists to become the wettest May on record since record keeping started in 1850. Linbergh Field tonight received .71 inches of rain in a 9 minute time frame!!!!!!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #71
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (1507)
15:00 PM JST May 15 2015
==========================
Near Mariana Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Dolphin (955 hPa) located at 13.6N 145.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
300 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 16.2N 141.9E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 18.9N 139.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 22.0N 140.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Japan
Agana heights, Guam experiencing hurricane conditions now: winds 74 mph gusting to 99 mph, pressure at 29.09 in.

Edit: Checked a few minutes later and anemometer has stopped giving wind readings. Completely zeroed out.
U2 BB King When Love Comes To Town

God bless BB King.
April latest in series of very warm months for the planet, Japan says

Last month was within 0.01 degrees of being the equal warmest April in records going back to 1891, adding to the hot start to 2015, the Japan Meteorological Agency says.

Land and sea-surface temperatures were 0.3 degrees above the 1981-2010 average, placing them just behind the largest anomaly of 0.31 degrees set for April in 2014 and 1998, the agency said.

Global surface temperatures have risen at the rate of about 0.74 degrees per century, the government body said:


Link
WOW!!!! Looks to be shooting the gao between Guam and Rota.........I am unable to post the Guam radar, which shows that very well. Maybe someone can post it......if anyone is up and atom.



The eye is just south of Rota, you can actually see it's circular appearance even though it is cloud covered.
Morning all. Looks like the eye of Dolphin is going to pass just to the north of Guam, giving the island a pretty bad blow. Sure hope everyone is hunkered down ...
The eye is quite visible on WU map view if set to show radar.
236. vis0

Quoting 151. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



*** ENSO Extremes and Diversity: Dynamics, Teleconnections, and Impacts

Multiple-Apogee Highly Elliptical Orbits for Continuous Meteorological Imaging of Polar Regions: Challenging the Classical 12-h Molniya Orbit Concept

!!! Rep. John Fleming (R-La.) calls study 'nonsense science' (video) Must see. I'd like to know what people versed in science and statistical techniques think.

A Film Explores Curacao's Effort to Become a Caribbean Haven for Coral

!!! First fully warm-blooded fish: The opah or moonfish



*** Left-handed cosmic magnetic field could explain missing antimatter



*** Cause of galactic death: Strangulation



!!! As carbon emissions climb, so too has Earth's capacity to remove CO2 from atmosphere

*** Climate scientists find warming in higher atmosphere: Elusive tropospheric hot spot located

*** Valuable Massachusetts ecosystems shrinking, doing more with less, study shows

!!! Antarctic ice shelf Larsen C is thinning from above and below

Satellite mapping reveals agricultural slowdown in Latin America

Iconic Indian fish on the brink of extinction

New class of 'dark' globular star clusters discovered around giant galaxy Centaurus A

Hubble Catches a Stellar Exodus in Action

* Los Angeles can expect number of extreme heat days to rise: study

Duke Energy pleads guilty to environmental crimes in North Carolina, fined $102 million

Texas drought eases, but is relief in sight for California?

The really scary thing about wildfires is how they can worsen climate change

!!! A Sharp Spike in Honeybee Deaths Deepens a Worrisome Trend

* Fruit Flies Are Shown to Enter a Fearlike State



NASA: What Are The Chances Of Another Katrina? (video)
TWO THINGS::

ONE:: on the link above on Left-handed cosmic magnetic field could explain missing antimatter

if you ever see on TMZ a weird guy that as the TMZ NYC Red&Black bus is touring NYC (usually on 14th street or 34th street or Central Park west) and as the bus pass by a chubby latin looking guy whom stops and points with his left hand and with his right hand does the Patrap ...i mean Spock of Star Trek "Vulcan salute", that chubby guy is me.
Done this mnemonic 3 times as the TMZ bus passed by since Dec2014, though one time it was really snowing and i didn't notice the bus was empty till it pulled away and the on coming headlights lit up the buses interior...empty!
To get it straight i'm not stalking the TMZ bus, if by chance i see it as i'm walking around or shopping i'll do these mnemonic as long as we cross paths.
As i posted years ago on myfoxblog & WxU 2004 & 2011) the trick is that both gestures The Physics Current flows & The Galacsics Current flow (Vulcan gesture) have 4 directions per each hand (L&R hands, that being 2) + right side up & up side down (also 2), times the 2 mnemonics or 2x2x2=8, Quantum being a temporary bridge ("ghost") it's the hand shake(s) and in that case there are only 2 (ascending/descending) hand shakes possible as one cannot shack hands conventionally with palms facing away...one day this will be the complete mnemonics for showing how one can remember how energy flows throughout all levels of science, but for now science only knows 3 of the 10.  10?, if you include the 2 hand shakes for quantum, 8+2=10.
So for now another version of the original 1800s Current flow hand gesture has been re adapted, i know the article is on that cosmic matter is acting is a Left handed cork screw manner but in time watch it'll be shown by using the right hand current flow but via the left hand being flipped over.
i'll try to find some old 5th grade pictures from the 1970s of me showing my science teacher, 6 of the gestures in the first day of class meet n greet day, my classmates and school photographer then thought they where cool "street" handshakes since i had just moved to Manhattan from Da BronX and i wore a black leather jacket. This was at PS 116 on 33rd st Manhattan.

(stop trying to show me those fancy urban hand shakes TAZ, i did them in the 1960s/70s like the ones you'd see on that comedy TV show 'Whats Happening" with ReReun.)

TWO:: BBrain you forgot the MOST IMPORTANT science research...#TheDress.

Scientists unravel mystery of the dress - News.com.au

Some saw other saw  and even a few saw  all i saw where compact & full figured curves...i must be colour blind (please no comments on hind site being not 20/20 or a set of three other numbers)

In a unrelated story it appears more funding for the sciences as to research will be cut in 2015, ahhh humans the main source for humor across galaxies.


Back to updates on Dolphin in wPAC and weather Obs within the UsofA and internationally.


Current conditions at
Andersen, Mariana Is, Andersen Air Force Base (PGUA)
Lat: 13.58°NLon: 144.93°

Heavy Rain Fog and Windy

77°F

25°C
Humidity 100%
Wind Speed N 60 G 83 mph
Barometer 29.15 in
Dewpoint 77°F (25°C)
Visibility 0.15 mi
Heat Index 78°F (26°C)
Last update 15 May 3:55 pm ChST

More Information:

Local Forecast Office
More Local Wx
3 Day History
Mobile Weather
Finally a wet several days on tap of East Central FL as a remnant boundry stalls overhead and creates nice convergence. NWS in Melbourne dropping the ball on rain chances as the GFS has shown this set up for days but instead they side with the much drier Euro which appears it will bust.


Here is the 7 day WPC precip totals below and notice the stark contrast between this agency and what the GFS has been showing all week. This agency seems to never show much rain for FL. Hopefully the GFS is right as it is very dry here in Longwood.

WPC 168hrs


GFS 168hrs
SOI has been crashing for a week now.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 15 May 2015



Average for last 30 days

-13.65



Average for last 90 days

-7.69



Daily contribution to SOI calculation

-33.15
First rain of the month at my place 0.03 from a shower just a bit ago. Not much but much more should be on the way later this morning.
Getting dry here on the Space Coast. Need some rain badly!
Quoting 242. StormTrackerScott:

First rain of the month at my place 0.03 from a shower just a bit ago. Not much but much more should be on the way later this morning.
Quoting 242. StormTrackerScott:

First rain of the month at my place 0.03 from a shower just a bit ago. Not much but much more should be on the way later this morning.


Picked up 0.59" last night. A nasty thunderstorm moved through most of Tampa around 7:30. Tons of lightning and some strong wind gusts.
Hello Dr. Jeff Masters,

It sure is great to hear that El Nino has arrived in California bringing rainfall to fill our reservoirs. It will be amazing to be able to experience a rainy late spring and summer here in California. We will keep our fingers crossed for this very unusual weather event.

Dave
The Federal Government drought monitor states Northern Texas is still under a drought, even though lakes are overflowing, the aquaphor are back to normal according to local news reports, yet the FEDS are saying not so fast. Lakes in northern Texas have risen 4ft. in the last week, farmers state felds are so saturated their hay fields will take a long time to dry up so tractors can cut the hay. Hay will have to be shipped in from dryer locations. I just don't believe the Federal Govenment, kinda like when I was working at 911 right after the World Trade Center came down, the CDC EPA said OH, that smoke will not hurt you!! it's not toxic!

Quoting 245. Cloudyinthewest:

Hello Dr. Jeff Masters,

It sure is great to hear that El Nino has arrived in California bringing rainfall to fill our reservoirs. It will be amazing to be able to experience a rainy late spring and summer here in California. We will keep our fingers crossed for this very unusual weather event.

Dave


I don't want to 'dampen' your enthusiasm, but it's highly unlikely that El Nino will fill your reservoirs. It'll probably bring some relief, but only temporarily.
if the el nino persists calif in the middle of next winter might be saying "no more rain"
Quoting 248. islander101010:

if the el nino persists calif in the middle of next winter might be saying "no more rain"
Feast and famine ... aka wx mood swings ...
Quoting 246. trunkmonkey:

The Federal Government drought monitor states Northern Texas is still under a drought, even though lakes are overflowing, the aquaphor are back to normal according to local news reports, yet the FEDS are saying not so fast. Lakes in northern Texas have risen 4ft. in the last week, farmers state felds are so saturated their hay fields will take a long time to dry up so tractors can cut the hay. Hay will have to be shipped in from dryer locations. I just don't believe the Federal Govenment, kinda like when I was working at 911 right after the World Trade Center came down, the CDC EPA said OH, that smoke will not hurt you!! it's not toxic!




Perhaps if you'd read the discussion/summary of the map, you'd have seen this:

Quoting DroughtMonitor
In Oklahoma and Texas, large-scale 1-2 category improvements were made after copious rains of 6-10 inches or more were recorded. Most areas in Texas and Oklahoma were good out to 24 months, but some residual dryness was still evident at 36 months. D4 has been completely eliminated from Texas and Oklahoma for the first time since July 2012. With the short-term indicators all showing drought-free conditions, a substantial shift of the long-term delineation line to the north was made this week as only long-term issues are impacting the southern plains.


Long term effects, in this case, at 36 months, are at the hydrology and ecology levels, rather than agriculture or grassland effects. This is why the drought monitor still shows drought conditions with an "L" (long term) label.

Sorry to burst your government conspiracy bubble.
Good Morning all. I just wanted to comment about how the upper air pattern or jet stream is subject to change for whats going on in the Western Pacific. We have seen recently in the past few years how these strong to super typhoon develop in the Western Pacific get to super typhoon level and then RECURVE to the North to Northeast. This often lends itself to a dip in the Jetstream or a trough of low pressure in the eastern 2/3rds. The high pressure ridge dominating in the East and the trough of low pressure in the West will shift or change by the early to mid part of next week. We have seen this happen last fall when an unusually strong cold snap happened after a week or so after a super typhoon recurved over japan and headed northeast. These storms are so intense they affect upper air wind patterns governing Low and High pressure systems. In short, don't be surprised to see a cool down next week in the east. BTW a return to more storms in the south especially central and south florida
Good morning folks over there (and best wishes to Guam and adjacent islands!) from Europe.


Current IR loop (updating).

At present severe weather conditions are evolving especially in Italy with cold cut-off low "Carlo" plumping into all the hot and moist airmasses which caused the record heat in Spain earlier. The atmospheric scenery is interesting and complex as Estofex (European Storm Forecast Experiment) writes in its current alert (issued yesterday evening):

SYNOPSIS: A glance on the maps reveals ongoing disturbed flow pattern over Europe with three dominant vortices. One longwave trough is situated over NE Europe. Circling low amplitude waves cause a marginal eastbound expansion, but overall no serious propagation of this trough is forecast.
Another intense vortex approaches NW Europe during the forecast but won't have any direct implications on the European weather, despite assisting in a bulging ridge downstream, which affects UK and France during the day.
Convection-wise the most interesting feature will be a southbound dropping deep and symmetric cold-core vortex over France and over the W-Mediterranean during the night . This cut-off is a potent one, also visible on IPV maps, which reveal a deep tropopause fold and model cross sections show influx of low-stratospheric air. Yesterday's sounding of Brest offered a nice insight into this vortex with unusually low tropopause levels and a cold mid/upper troposphere. During today's outlook, this feature will interact with the moist and unstable air mass over the N-CNTRL Mediterranean, which will spark numerous organized thunderstorms. This area will be the main focus for organized DMC.
At lower levels, this third vortex will induce downstream pressure fall over N-Italy and a broad and temporarily strengthening LL depression evolves. This feature will push a cold front rapidly east, while assisting in a sharpening warm front over the CNTRL Balkan States. During the overnight hours, a second LL depression evolves over the Adriatic Sea which slows down any frontal displacement.
Elsewhere numerous fronts and LL depressions affect the European weather, but limited access to an unstabel air mass keeps thunderstorm probabilities on a lower end side. ...

More.


Saved loop of the last 12h showing low "Carlo" moving over France into the Mediterranean.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
255. EvPv
Curious why the below average water temps in the northern Atlantic.