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A Rare Event: Heavy Rains in Northwest U.S. From an Ex-Hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:03 PM GMT on October 28, 2014

The heavy rains and strong gusty winds that began affecting the Northwest U.S. and Western Canadian coasts on Monday evening are due to a truly rare event: the remains of a Hawaiian hurricane getting slung into the coast as part of a large extratropical storm. The moisture is from Hurricane Ana, which, after making an extended tour just offshore of the Hawaiian islands last week, died on Sunday afternoon over the Pacific about 1,300 miles west of the California/Oregon border--unusually far to the northeast for a tropical cyclone to make it. In fact, there is only one other case since 1949 where the remnants of a hurricane that formed in the Eastern or Central Pacific has had a significant impact on the Pacific Northwest or Western Canada--an unnamed 1975 storm that maintained hurricane strength to 46.8°N (the latitude of the Oregon/Washington border.) That storm was the only hurricane on record to make it farther to the northeast of Hawaii than Ana, which maintained hurricane strength to a latitude of 36.3°N--approximately the latitude of Monterey, California. Even the notorious Hurricane Iniki, which hit Kauai as a Category 4 storm on September 11, 1992, only made it to 35°N latitude as a hurricane. Fortunately, ex-Ana's rains of 2 - 6" are not expected to cause serious flooding in the Pacific Northwest. The only Flood Watch for the storm is over Western Washington, where heavy rains in the Olympic Mountains may be enough to drive rivers close to flood stage.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of the extratropical storm containing the remains of Hurricane Ana impacting the Northwest U.S. and Western Canadian coasts on Monday afternoon, October 27, 2014. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Tracks of all Central Pacific tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes to make it far to the north of the Hawaiian Islands (at least 34°N latitude.) Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 3. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average along the track of Hurricane Ana as of October 27, 2014. A large area of SSTs 2 - 3°F above average to the north of Hawaii allowed Ana to maintain hurricane strength much farther north than is usual in the Central Pacific. Warmer than normal ocean temperatures during the summer and fall of 2014 in the Central Pacific allowed a record three hurricanes--Iselle, Julio, and Ana--to come within 300 miles of the Hawaiian Islands. Image credit: Remote Sensing Systems.

Remnants of typhoons occasionally affect Pacific Northwest
There have been a number of Western Pacific typhoons that have died north of Hawaii and gone on to bring heavy rain to western Canada; this happens about twice per decade. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the most destructive storm in the history of the Pacific Northwest formed from the remnants of a Western Pacific typhoon. That storm was the notorious "Big Blow" or Columbus Day Storm of October 12, 1962 that killed 46 and caused $1.9 billion in damage (2014 dollars). The Western Pacific's Typhoon Freda, a Category 3 storm that formed near Wake Island west of the Date Line, became an extratropical storm with 45 mph winds shortly after crossing the Date Line, and went on to intensify into a 969 mb monster off the coast of Oregon that brought wind gusts as high as 145 mph to the coast that terrible October day in 1962.


Figure 3. The track of the Columbus Day storm from its inception as a typhoon on October 3 to the time it made landfall as a powerful extra-tropical storm on Vancouver Island, Canada on October 13th. The storm became extra-tropical in the West Pacific on October 9th. USWB chart reproduced in Weatherwise magazine’s December 1962 issue.


Figure 4. The Big Blow topples the Campbell Hall Tower on the campus of Western Oregon State College in Monmouth near Salem where 90 mph wind gusts were measured. Photo by Wes Luchau.

Remnants of Hanna bringing heavy rain to Central America
Tropical Storm Hanna dissipated on Monday evening over northern Nicaragua, just 14 hours after springing into life less than 50 miles off of the coast. Visible satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that the remnants of Hanna were over Northern Honduras and the Western Caribbean, and these heavy thunderstorms will move westwards over Belize, Northern Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday, bringing areas of 3 - 5" of rain. The center of ex-Hanna was located just inland from the northern coast of Honduras on Tuesday morning, and was being tracked as Invest 96L by NHC.


Figure 5. Latest satellite image of 95L.

Invest 95L near the northern Lesser Antilles a possible threat to Bermuda
An area of disturbed weather (95L) associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper level trough of low pressure is near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and is headed northwestward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Satellite loops show that 95L has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is poorly organized. Wind shear is high, 15 - 25 knots, and water vapor satellite images show that 95L has dry air to its north and west that is likely interfering with development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are warm, about 29°C. The 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain high for the next five days, limiting the prospects for development. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict development of 95L over the next five days. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 30%, respectively. The only land area at risk from 95L is Bermuda.


Figure 6. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Nilofar in the Arabian Sea on Tuesday morning, October 28, 2014. At the time, Nilofar was an intensifying Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Cyclone Nilofar the 3rd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record
In the Arabian Sea between India and Africa, powerful Category 4 Cyclone Nilofar is putting on an impressive bout of rapid intensification as it heads northwards at 10 mph towards Pakistan. With wind shear a light 5 - 10 knots, excellent upper-level outflow, and very warm ocean temperatures about 1°C above average: 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F), Nilofar may be able to continue intensifying until Wednesday morning, when very dry air from the deserts of the Middle East, combined with high wind shear, should be able to weaken the storm. Nilofar is expected to recurve to the northeast later this week, and the 00Z Tuesday runs of the UKMET and European models predicted the shear and dry air would be able to destroy Nilofar before it could make landfall. The GFS model keeps Nilofar as a weakening tropical storm at landfall near the Pakistan/India border around 00 UTC Saturday. Heavy rains are likely to be the most significant threat from the storm.

Intense hurricanes are rare in the Arabian Sea, due to the basin's small size, the interference of the summer monsoon, and the frequent presence of dry air and dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Nilofar's 130 mph sustained winds make it the third strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, behind the 165 mph winds of Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, and the 145 mph winds of Category 4 Cyclone Phet of 2010, which also did heavy damage in Oman. Fourth place is held jointly by the 2001 India Cyclone 01A and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A) of 1999, which were Category 3 storms with 125 mph winds.

Eastern Pacific disturbance near tropical depression status
A well-organized area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific a few hundred miles southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border (Invest 93E) is close to tropical depression status. Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis all develop the system, and in their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development near 100%. The storm's heaviest rains will remain well offshore from Mexico over the next five days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks.
Interesting reading.
Almost November and the topics are still active.

Thanks for the new blog Dr. Masters.
Wow, detailed post Dr. Masters, thank you. Had no idea Nilofar was 3rd strongest storm on record in the Arabian Sea.

Repost from the last blog-

Scott just mentioned it, but TD9/94L/Hanna/96L just won't die. Center must've reformed last night as the old center died inland. Something's trying to get going just off the northern coast of Honduras. It's not moving too quickly and it won't hit land again until Belize. Might become a TD/weak TS again. NHC has completely botched this whole system (as have I of course, lol). It happens though, these things are hard to forecast and the only reason it looks bad on the NHC is because they're usually so accurate with this stuff.

Thanks for the detailed posting, Dr. Masters. One problem though - the link for 96L doesn't work.
30 kts of shear over 96L.
Nice to see the acknowledgement of the 1962 Columbus Day Storm. Thanks.
Thanks Dr. Masters! Great blog as always.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, detailed post Dr. Masters, thank you. Had no idea Nilofar was 3rd strongest storm on record in the Arabian Sea.

Repost from the last blog-

Scott just mentioned it, but TD9/94L/Hanna/96L just won't die. Center must've reformed last night as the old center died inland. Something's trying to get going just off the northern coast of Honduras. It's not moving too quickly and it won't hit land again until Belize. Might become a TD/weak TS again. NHC has completely botched this whole system (as have I of course, lol). It happens though, these things are hard to forecast and the only reason it looks bad on the NHC is because they're usually so accurate with this stuff.

As usual, I posted on the old blog as Dr.Masters made his update. The floater for Hanna is still up and is covering 96L so I assume that will get renamed at some point. The area of heavy thunderstorms is limited right now. At this point, I give up on trying to figure this storm out. Props to the Cayman Island guys for staying on top of this.

By Saturday the GOM will be again shut down.
Quoting 5. sar2401:

Thanks for the detailed posting, Dr. Masters. One problem though - the link for 96L doesn't work.


Thanks, fixed this just now.

Dr. M.
This blog post heading is full of interest, it seems that the season is keen to compensate for the lack normal Atlantic activity with some unusual surprises.
Thank you Dr. Masters for bringing them to our notice.

Only a couple of days ago the Arabian gulf storm was thought to be lucky if it got past a cat 1. Now we learn that its:-
"In the Arabian Sea between India and Africa, powerful Category 4 Cyclone Nilofar"
There's probably going to be all sorts of bother in the Pakistan area in a couple of days, or less.

Meanwhile a once in many years storm is heading for the Canadian coast!

Whatever next? Maybe another named storm in the Atlantic before we call it a year for 2014.
Sar,

What do you think? Think it will get tugged northward and moisture headed into GOM?

It really made the most of it's small slice of marginally favorable conditions.

Quoting 9. sar2401:

As usual, I posted on the old blog as Dr.Masters made his update. The floater fro Hanna is still up and is covering 96L so I assume that will get renamed at some point. The area of heavy thunderstorms is limited right now. At this point, I give up on trying to figure this storm out. Props to the Cayman Island guys for staying on top of this.


Great read Dr. Masters. Love historical.
Thanks Doc..The MDR hasnt looked this good since 2007...:)

95L recurve hopefully well clear of Bermuda. Eyes on Grothar's blob in the MDR after that. Still some things to watch, especially if we get a break in the cold fronts dropping down in November.

Quoting 10. Sfloridacat5:

By Saturday the GOM will be again shut down.

Thanks Dr. Masters! Great blog
A Rare Event: Heavy Rains in Northwest U.S. From an Ex-Hurricane

Very interesting...
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Sar,

What do you think? Think it will get tugged northward and moisture headed into GOM?

It really made the most of it's small slice of marginally favorable conditions.

It looks like this is a low that formed after Hanna dissipated. It shows on the surface map as a 1010 low, and winds in the entire area appear to be pretty light. There's a trough approaching the Gulf now and a much deeper trough will be in the Gulf by Saturday. That isn't going to create good conditions for any tropical storm to make it to the Gulf. However, the first thing we have to do is see if 96L actually becomes any more than it is now. As I said, I've given up on forecasting this thing for now.

35 kts of shear over 96L.
Quoting JeffMasters:


Thanks, fixed this just now.

Dr. M.
You're welcome. With the amount of links you put in that post (well, actually, most of your posts), I'm surprised that they all usually work. I have enough trouble getting more than one to work in my posts. :-)





my dog loves this weather
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
95L recurve hopefully well clear of Bermuda. Eyes on Grothar's blob in the MDR after that. Still some things to watch, especially if we get a break in the cold fronts dropping down in November.



There's definitely some active tropical regions still in play (especially the Caribbean Islands).
It's just not in my neighborhood.

i admit to being a wishcaster but opposite from most here ... i wish them to go away or at least become ots fish storms ... cool nights and november usually make me happy ... right now what i want to see is those sst's to get lower with these cold fronts that cross the gom ... good wishes and cheers to all


fall time over here!!
Road Trip

Quoting 24. Sfloridacat5:



There's definitely some active tropical regions still in play (especially the Caribbean Islands).
It's just not in my neighborhood.


Hanna hardly lived but seems to be the storm that will never die. Now it's 96L.
southfla cat 5 u see the latest euro cold for south fla
My thoughts are that the moisture gets pulled northward as remnant, but with this who knows. A lot depends on what transpires in the next day or two. Thanks.

Quoting 20. sar2401:

It looks like this is a low that formed after Hanna dissipated. It shows on the surface map as a 1010 low, and winds in the entire area appear to be pretty light. There's a trough approaching the Gulf now and a much deeper trough will be in the Gulf by Saturday. That isn't going to create good conditions for any tropical storm to make it to the Gulf. However, the first thing we have to do is see if 96L actually becomes any more than it is now. As I said, I've given up on forecasting this thing for now.


Thanks doc, great long blog, especially with the details of Ana!!

Tropical Cyclone Nilofar explodes into cagetory 4 in Arabian Sea
Washington Post, The Capital Weather Gang, By Angela Fritz, October 28 at 12:29 pm
Actually, that cut-off low WSW of Haida Gwaii is not ex-Ana: she was absorbed in a polar front on Sunday and no discernible circulation was left; just a bit of moisture.
Quoting 26. hurricanes2018:



fall time over here!!


For some reason the plus icon isn't up but it's a nice picture.. definitely merits a plus!
If 96L crosses the Yucatan again, will it be 97L?
Link

The obs in this loop would suggest a center near 17N/85.5W
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Road Trip



I was watching some videos from Chicama, Peru and dreaming of riding those waves.
Chicama, Peru


View from my front door about 5 minutes ago, big squall moving in!
sfloridacat 5 u see the latest
WKC and the other Cayman bloggers, what can I say..great job..again!!!!

Yeah, unbelievable. Long backside walls for me. How's that paddle back to the point? Think I might be running a crew with a ski.

Quoting 38. Sfloridacat5:

Chicama, Peru

Arabian Sea Wave Model

Link
Quoting stormpetrol:


View from my front door about 5 minutes ago, big squall moving in!
403 error on both, SP. Looks like you're using a direct link to Google Mail, and that won't work.
45. JRRP

Quoting eddye:
southfla cat 5 u see the latest euro cold for south fla


See post #56
12Z GFS has dropped its temps for this weekend.
Quoting JRRP:



You need to "Bolieve."
Another system in the Caribbean!
Quoting Grothar:
If 96L crosses the Yucatan again, will it be 97L?
This year, it will become Hurricane Irving...
Quoting 45. JRRP:



OMG
12z GFS at 162 hours with a landfalling system on the coast of Mexico.


Low crosses Mexico and ends up on the Texas coast and is absorbed into a low that should affect the S.E. and Eastcoast.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 281740
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred
miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Since
upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive, some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
few days. By the weekend, however, conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A well-defined low pressure system, the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Hanna, has emerged over the Gulf of Honduras near Roatan. This
system is producing scattered showers across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and adjacant areas of northern Honduras, the Yucatan
Peninsula, and Belize. Although upper-levels winds are somewhat
favorable, proximity to land is expected to prevent any significant
redevelopment of this disturbance while it moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph. The system is forecast to move inland over Belize
and northern Guatemala by Wednesday morning, ending any chance for
redevelopment after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 15. hydrus:

Thanks Doc..The MDR hasnt looked this good since 2007...:)




It's so weird how the MDR has looked so good in October! It was full of convection during the Fay-Gonzalo 1-2 punch and again in late October. Very strange! Had this been the set up in September, I struggle to think what could have happened!
Coastal low and cold air over the southern Appalachian region could produce some snowfall in the higher elevations.
Quoting 45. JRRP:





Recent run of the GFS 12Z has a huge bulk of moisture also moving towards the islands from that huge mess out in ITCZ in the CATL. It combines with an upper level trough, and brings a lot of rainfall next week, seems like almost every disturbance this year has emerged from this area.

Quoting eddye:
southfla cat 5 u see the latest euro cold for south fla


12Z GFS has dropped the temps.
Chances are looking better for seeing 40s away from the coast in S Fl.
Freeze to N. Georgia.
thats cold


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred
miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Since
upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive, some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
few days. By the weekend, however, conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A well-defined low pressure system, the remnants of former Tropical
Storm Hanna, has emerged over the Gulf of Honduras near Roatan. This
system is producing scattered showers across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and adjacant areas of northern Honduras, the Yucatan
Peninsula, and Belize. Although upper-levels winds are somewhat
favorable, proximity to land is expected to prevent any significant
redevelopment of this disturbance while it moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph. The system is forecast to move inland over Belize
and northern Guatemala by Wednesday morning, ending any chance for
redevelopment after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart


From the Telegraph (UK)
Link
Met Office pledges reliable weather forecasts with supercomputer
"..The Met Office said that from September it will be able to give forecasts six days ahead instead of the current four and calculate temperatures for the next 24 hours with up to 90 per cent accuracy. Currently, it can only do so for 12 hours... Using one of the world’s most powerful computers — paid for by the government — scientists will analyse data once an hour, rather than every six hours, to give the most accurate predictions so far. ."



"...The new computer — which will perform more than 16,000 trillion calculations per second and weigh the equivalent of 11 double decker buses — will also allow far more localised forecasts, which will pick up flooding risks earlier so that emergency services can be alerted..."


Thought this was interesting. NASA showing Bermuda before and after Gonzalo (and I think Fay as well).
Looks like I avoid hard freeze this round. I will cover up the bell peppers and tomatoes and hope to get a couple more weeks. Tropical plants are coming in until March.

Quoting 56. Sfloridacat5:



12Z GFS has dropped the temps.
Chances are looking better for seeing 40s away from the coast in S Fl.
Freeze to N. Georgia.

Cleaned the reefs.

Quoting 60. Articuno:



Thought this was interesting. NASA showing Bermuda before and after Gonzalo (and I think Fay as well).
Latest satellite image of 96-L. We need a recon out there.
New TWO

Sorry NHC I don't believe you one bit with postTS Hanna/96L

You failed too much with this system

IMHO
Quoting jdukes:
Latest satellite image of 96-L. We need a recon out there.


I've been saying it the whole time
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters,
Precipitation for the next 7 days.
You can see the influx of moisture from the tropical system that's currently in the Pacific.


Also, it doesn't look good for Florida. Very dry in many areas of Florida.
1.24" for the month at my location.

68. JRRP

40%
It will be interesting to see where the remnants of Hanna/ex-Hanna/96L end up.

Quoting 67. Sfloridacat5:

Precipitation for the next 7 days.
You can see the influx of moisture from the tropical system that's currently in the Pacific.


Also, it doesn't look good for Florida. Very dry in many areas of Florida.
1.24" for the month at my location.


ECMWF 12z has a snow threat for parts of the Ohio Valley region through the Appalachian region and interior Northeast. The model continues to dig the 500hpa low south all the way down to the Carolinas. Low pressure system over central North Carolina.



Quoting 65. wunderkidcayman:



I've been saying it the whole time


So've I, though I'm just a lowly lurker, but those have been my comments on this TD9/94L/suddenlyHanna/96L situation... NHC has dropped the ball on this one, I think this storm has been rather poorly handled and, considering the resources at the NHC's disposal, I have no idea why. Especially considering its proximity to land, and the propensity for people to actually pay attention to what's coming if it's classified.

This will have a very interesting post-season analysis. I look forward to seeing it, really.

By the by, 95L is getting dressed to impress... in spite of its environment. Although the same can be said for every storm that's formed in the region (which is just about half)... so, by default, a storm will probably form there haha.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
It will be interesting to see where the remnants of Hanna/ex-Hanna/96L end up.



Good question.
I would like to see 96L get back in the BOC and strengthen.
Then get pulled north into the GOM by the system that forms over Texas next week.

But for that to happen it would have to survive the front coming down into the Caribbean/Yucatan area this weekend.
Quoting LostTomorrows:


So've I, though I'm just a lowly lurker, but those have been my comments on this TD9/94L/suddenlyHanna/96L situation... NHC has dropped the ball on this one, I think this storm has been rather poorly handled and, considering the resources at the NHC's disposal, I have no idea why. Especially considering its proximity to land, and the propensity for people to actually pay attention to what's coming if it's classified.

This will have a very interesting post-season analysis. I look forward to seeing it, really.

By the by, 95L is getting dressed to impress... in spite of its environment. Although the same can be said for every storm that's formed in the region (which is just about half)... so, by default, a storm will probably form there haha.

++
Quoting Drakoen:
ECMWF 12z has a snow threat for parts of the Ohio Valley region through the Appalachian region and interior Northeast. The model continues to dig the 500hpa low south all the way down to the Carolinas. Low pressure system over central North Carolina.





GFS has a 1003mb low close to the same location at 102 hours. Things are starting to match up a lot better between the two models.
waiting for the latest discussion regarding the models of gfs and euro for this weekend southfla cat 5
Do you have a snow accumulation map for these days ?

Quoting 74. Sfloridacat5:



GFS has a 1003mb low close to the same location at 102 hours. Things are starting to match up a lot better between the two models.
77. JRRP
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


You need to "Bolieve."
Another system in the Caribbean!

No that is not a system in the carib


This thing is worse than Nadine...

At least Nadine looked good for more than half an hour...


Not too sure this is gonna be TD Hanna again...

But 97L might be when this thing crosses the Yucatan ._.
Do you have a snow accumulation map for these days ?


WPC issues a snow accumulation forecast...but only for 3 days out


very cold temp around 25 F AT night !!
Shocking!

Quoting 85. Grothar:

Shocking!


Has all the characteristics of a major hurricane...Just look at that fluffy cloud near Roatan...Dats a cat-3 cloud
Lol the NWS has 60's for me on Saturday night! looks more like i wll be in the 40's!! :) it was 55 yesterday morning! :) CMC, GFS and EURO has 40's for me!
What does anybody think of the chances for a 97L?

Quoting 92. Grothar:

What does anybody think of the chances for a 97L?




Hi Gro:
From all appearances we can very well get to the 10th storm this season assuming 95l does develop.
Quoting JRRP:

No that is not a system in the carib


You need to "Bolieve."

95L -Close call for the Leewards, but should (well maybe) stay north of the area.

96L - "Bolieve"-it refuses to go away.
Does anyone else think that Nilofar looks nothing like a Cat 4 storm? I'm not saying it is or isn't. I'm just saying it looks like a Cat 1 or 2 to me.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Actually the King of this season, Gonzalo,and the majority of the storms formed east of Puerto Rico and the Northern Antilles...this year.
Quoting 96. MAstu:

Does anyone else think that Nilofar looks nothing like a Cat 4 storm? I'm not saying it is or isn't. I'm just saying it looks like a Cat 1 or 2 to me.

It looks like a lower-end Category 3, but the system has weakened since earlier due to dry air.

Now:



This morning:

I see 95L becoming the I storm and what I see what is happening in the ITC zone we should get 97L and perhaps the 10th named storm of the season
The record low for West Palm Beach on November 2nd is 51. In Vero Beach it is 47.
102. eddye
sflweatherman link for gfs
Quoting 94. Sfloridacat5:



You need to "Bolieve."

95L -Close call for the Leewards, but should (well maybe) stay north of the area.

96L - "Bolieve"-it refuses to go away.


How inspirational ;)
Port St. Lucie will have a high of 75 and a low of 47 this Saturday- Nov.1st.
105. Mikla
Quoting 102. eddye:

sflweatherman link for gfs


Link
Quoting 104. rmbjoe1954:

Port St. Lucie will have a high of 75 and a low of 47 this Saturday


62 for a Hi Saturday and 41 for a low Sunday in Fort Walton Beach! No where near our record low though that is in the low 30's or 20's this time of year.
Quoting hydrus:
Has all the characteristics of a major hurricane...Just look at that fluffy cloud near Roatan...Dats a cat-3 cloud
I thought it looked pretty weak earlier when I posted a JSL view. Now it's hard to distinguish from the typical diurnal convection often seen in the area. First it doesn't want to intensify until it's 30 miles offshore, next it doesn't want to die when it becomes a remnant, and now it looks like it needs a meteorological EMT to keep it alive. This series of "storms" has my vote for weirdest of the year.
Quoting 64. wunderkidcayman:

New TWO

Sorry NHC I don't believe you one bit with postTS Hanna/96L

You failed too much with this system

IMHO


Hanna was pretty much a non-entity for her whole extended "life", and is again a non-entity..
Quoting 106. 69Viking:


62 for a Hi Saturday and 41 for a low Sunday in Fort Walton Beach! No where near our record low though that is in the low 30's or 20's this time of year.


Now that is refreshing football weather in Florida!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
The record low for West Palm Beach on November 2nd is 51. In Vero Beach it is 47.


Big difference between Wunderground and the NWS for my location.
NWS is calling for a low of 56 for Saturday morning and Wunderground is calling for a low of 47.

I think the NWS might be slow to update their forecast or they're waiting for some more model runs. 12Z GFS showed a pretty big drop in temps for Florida.
112. eddye
broward will be 48 yummy
113. eddye
sflorida cat 5 it needs 2 show 20 degrees colder on nws
From the Miami NWS Disco (2:21 pm)...

.LONG TERM...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FRIDAY EVENING INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT TO MOVE
DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY REINFORCING THE DRY AIR
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE LATEST 12Z MEX AND 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE SHOWING
THAT TEMPS ARE COOLING A LITTLE BIT MORE THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT AROUND 60
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN LATER FORECAST
RUNS...THEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE LOWER FOR THIS
WEEKEND.
Nice blob in the middle Atlantic..I wonder if Gro has designated this yet..

Saturday morning for Miami
NWS - 69 degrees
Wunderground - 55 degrees

Pretty big difference. I'm pretty sure the NWS will update their forecasts with lower temps if the 18z GFS continues to show cooler temps,
Quoting 92. Grothar:

What does anybody think of the chances for a 97L?


It has a shot..Lotta shear tho..

118. eddye
sfla catgory 5 it will likely go down 2 48
Good Afternoon.  Arguably, that is the best looking wave that we have seen emerge from Africa all season. Problem it that a) it is October, b) shear is on the rise,  and c) the ITCZ has already started to dip back down so it is way too low for the coreolis effect.  It will probably just end up just coming ashore in South America in all probability.  If this was August, and this wave was at the 9N mark or higher, I would have been worried......... :)

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
From the Miami NWS Disco (2:21 pm)...

.LONG TERM...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FRIDAY EVENING INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT TO MOVE
DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY REINFORCING THE DRY AIR
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE LATEST 12Z MEX AND 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE SHOWING
THAT TEMPS ARE COOLING A LITTLE BIT MORE THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT AROUND 60
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN LATER FORECAST
RUNS...THEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE LOWER FOR THIS
WEEKEND.


As I thought. They're going to wait to see if the future GFS runs support the cooler temps before they adjust them.
Link

96L - Naked swirl racing towards Yucatan. Mid-level swirl around 16N 86W not moving much. Where is the COC? Or is the whole thing just coming apart?

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


Not too sure this is gonna be TD Hanna again...

But 97L might be when this thing crosses the Yucatan ._.
I'm not sure 96L is going to have anything but some clouds whenever it gets to Belize, let alone crossing the Yucatan. It has progressively looked weaker with less thunderstorm activity and the pressure rising over the last couple of hours. Now the thunderstorms seem to be almost gone. This has been a strange storm, but it's hard to see this surviving as an invest by 0200 tomorrow.

To give you folks down south an idea how dry the air is behind the front, S C IL currently 64 w/ a 32 dew pt. W-WSW winds 7-12 w/ a 22 gust, 30.01". I had .7" in gauge this morning, coworker had an inch.

Today is 49th anniversary of the last piece of the Arch being put in place. Also, if you fly into Lambert, the domes of the concourses won't be green patina for a while, they are putting new copper roof up. Age (and the tornado too) have finally done the old ones in, almost 60 yrs, so not too bad!

94/Hanna/96 not Nadine, but still an interesting little roundabout entity.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Big difference between Wunderground and the NWS for my location.
NWS is calling for a low of 56 for Saturday morning and Wunderground is calling for a low of 47.

I think the NWS might be slow to update their forecast or they're waiting for some more model runs. 12Z GFS showed a pretty big drop in temps for Florida.
It really depends on how fast the low deepens and how far north it gets. If can deepen rapidly by Saturday and not get too far up the East Coast, some pretty cold temperatures could happen all the way down to the Keys. The forecast for Eufaula on Saturday is a high of 58 and low of 38(!). The boys in Birmingham are using a blend of the GFS and MEX MOS for guidance. If the low stays a little further south, we could have frost Saturday morning and possibly Sunday morning as well. I'm planning on covering my more sensitive container plants at least, and I might have to drag some of them in the house if the really cold air gets here.
If anyone is interested, I wrote a blog about possible WNC snow event on Weebly:

http://kylenoel15.weebly.com/
Quoting 122. sar2401:
I'm not sure 96L is going to have anything but some clouds whenever it gets to Belize, let alone crossing the Yucatan. It has progressively looked weaker with less thunderstorm activity and the pressure rising over the last couple of hours. Now the thunderstorms seem to be almost gone. This has been a strange storm, but it's hard to see this surviving as an invest by 0200 tomorrow.




Quoting dabirds:
To give you folks down south an idea how dry the air is behind the front, S C IL currently 64 w/ a 32 dew pt. W-WSW winds 7-12 w/ a 22 gust, 30.01". I had .7" in gauge this morning, coworker had an inch.

Today is 49th anniversary of the last piece of the Arch being put in place. Also, if you fly into Lambert, the domes of the concourses won't be green patina for a while, they are putting new copper roof up. Age (and the tornado too) have finally done the old ones in, almost 60 yrs, so not too bad!

94/Hanna/96 not Nadine, but still an interesting little roundabout entity.
Unfortunately, that screaming cold front looks like it will dry by the time it get to SE Alabama. This has been the year of strong cold fronts getting down into the humid SE and doing...nothing. We've had like three thunderstorms since early spring and nothing that even resembled a decent squall line by the time it got here. Now we're about to enter our secondary severe weather season and, instead of lightning, thunder, and rain, I'm going have clear, cold, and dry.


Looks a like a new center wants to take over 96L at around 16.1N/85.9W
KSAV being Savannah, of course.


.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 90 DEGREES AT KSAV YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 89 SET IN 1940.
ALSO...THIS IS THE LATEST 90 DEGREE DAY AT KSAV SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1871.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Looks a like a new center wants to take over 96L at around 16.1N/85.9W


Well looking at RGB it appears that the spin you see is a mid level spin and the low level spin is just WNW of Rotan

But the mid level spin is quite vigorous and if the low level spin weakens you just might see a new low level spin form under the mid level spin

Must watch it during next few hrs and overnight

Also to note convection overall is increasing
Quoting stormpetrol:


Looks a like a new center wants to take over 96L at around 16.1N/85.9W
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Well looking at RGB it appears that the spin you see is a mid level spin and the low level spin is just WNW of Rotan

But the mid level spin is quite vigorous and if the low level spin weakens you just might see a new low level spin form under the mid level spin

Must watch it during next few hrs and overnight

Also to note convection overall is increasing


It could also be that the spin you see E of Rotan N of the main land is the new LLC and the spin you see WNW of Rotan is the old LLC being thrown out
Quoting 130. stormpetrol:



Looks a like a new center wants to take over 96L at around 16.1N/85.9W

Another new one, THEY DIE AND A NEW CENTER POPS UP----DIES, POPS UP, DIES, POPS UP! Does it ever stop lol
Also mid level spin seems to be moving more north than west. Convection also appears to be increasing. What a crazy little system. Curious to see what we'll have in 12 hours.

Quoting 130. stormpetrol:



Looks a like a new center wants to take over 96L at around 16.1N/85.9W
Looks like snow for West Virginia and higher elevation areas.
Quoting 92. Grothar:

What does anybody think of the chances for a 97L?



I think it could be with the blob to the SE of 95L.
Hmm looking a hi res imagery it appears that the low level clouds on the E side now starting to spin around the that new spin
Quoting 135. HaoleboySurfEC:

Also mid level spin seems to be moving more north than west. Convection also appears to be increasing. What a crazy little system. Curious to see what we'll have in 12 hours.



Not bad
OMG The rocket just exploded!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just saw that Antares Rocket grenade just after liftoff, YIKES.
18Z GFS has 40's for S FL and 60's on Sunday with some low 70's
2 Years Ago tomorrow(10/29/12), hurricane sandy hit NJ. I WILL NEVER FORGET MY EXPERIENCE AND THAT DAY/ NIGHT. That story i tell will always be fresh in my mind. (used to Live up North)
Quoting 142. SFLWeatherman:

18Z GFS has 40's for S FL and 60's on Sunday with some low 70's

Not good for the oranges
Quoting 141. PedleyCA:

Just saw that Antares Rocket grenade just after liftoff, YIKES.


That was insane...
Quoting 130. stormpetrol:



Looks a like a new center wants to take over 96L at around 16.1N/85.9W


It amazes me that bloggers are actually posting graphics of this lol or anything in the Atlantic for that matter. Seasons done, time to move on to new things here, like nor-Easters. Bring on the snow and wind, Blizzards baby, let's do this!
Quoting 140. Doppler22:

OMG The rocket just exploded!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 141. PedleyCA:

Just saw that Antares Rocket grenade just after liftoff, YIKES.



Was outside with my mother trying to look for the launch and missed it going off
Quoting 145. Doppler22:


That was insane...



From Twitter. Really not looking "good" :-(
Woops, just posted.


Video: I hope nobody was hurt!
Quoting 148. barbamz:




From Twitter. Really not looking "good" :-(


No one injured, no big deal here
Video from youtube here ; looking at it though looks like they didn't have enough lift and blew her up
Quoting 148. barbamz:




From Twitter. Really not looking "good" :-(

The worst is the lot of money expended just for nothing
Quoting 145. Doppler22:


Just saw that Antares Rocket grenade just after liftoff, YIKES.
That was insane...
What was being launched? At the Cape or in California?
at Wallops Flight Center in Virgina
Quoting barbamz:



From Twitter. Really not looking "good" :-(


Some early expensive fireworks
Quoting 154. CaneFreeCR:

What was being launched? At the Cape or in California?



Neither lol
Liftoff from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport on Wallops Island, Virginia.
The mission, Orbital CRS-3, marks the first flight of the upgraded Antares 130 rocket, which features a more powerful second stage to accommodate larger future payloads.
It is also the final flight for the current configuration of Cygnus, with a larger Enhanced Cygnus due to be introduced with the next mission.
This new version will take advantage of the increased capacity of the Antares 130 in order to deliver a greater amount of cargo to the space station.
First flown in April 2013, the launch is overall the fifth flight of Orbital's Antares rocket which was developed specifically to launch the Cygnus spacecraft.
The introduction of the Antares 130 has been planned since the beginning of the program as Orbital ramp up the rocket's capacity through upgrades to the second stage.

Source.



NASA's launch of an Orbital Sciences Corp. Antares rocket and Cygnus resupply spacecraft for the International Space Station today ended abruptly when the rocket exploded in smoke and flames shortly after liftoff. This was to be Orbital's third resupply mission to the ISS.

Source.
Quoting 146. mcluvincane:



It amazes me that bloggers are actually posting graphics of this lol or anything in the Atlantic for that matter. Seasons done, time to move on to new things here, like nor-Easters. Bring on the snow and wind, Blizzards baby, let's do this!

Thanks for the heads up, guess I had mine somewhere else!:))
Quoting 154. CaneFreeCR:

What was being launched? At the Cape or in California?



Virginia
Link

Surface Obs on this loop suggest the mid level center east of roatan is becoming the new LLC
The rocket was carrying the Cygnus spacecraft, which was loaded with 5,000 pounds of cargo that included science experiments, food, clothing and other equipment for the astronauts on the ISS. It was due to be parked there for a month.
Source.

Sorry for all who worked for this project. And sorry for the staff in the ISS waiting for food and more. Hope there is an alternative carrier?
Quoting 161. stormpetrol:
Link

Surface Obs on this loop suggest the mid level center east of roatan is becoming the new LLC


I think that has always been the center. what people were seeing earlier was that a low level vort was shot out away from the main center which fooled many on here.

Beginning to think 96L may not move into the Yucatan at all as it appears to moving NNW now.

Quoting 145. Doppler22:


That was insane...


The lady doing the story had just commented that it looked like a good launch, Then it went bad in seconds after that. Guess she spoke to soon.
Quoting 162. stormpetrol:




Nothing going on here
Quoting stormpetrol:

Thanks for the heads up, guess I had mine somewhere else!:))
Someone certainly does but he doesn't live in the tropics...:-)
FromMatt Daniel
@mattdanielwx on Twitter

Doppler radar shows the explosion of the #Antares rocket. No injuries reported according to @NASA

Link
From FB..

WxSouth
39 mins ·

In all the years I've studied old maps in meteorology, I've never seen this. What the models are progging at the jetstream level is practically unprecendented. It takes the northern wave all the way from the Canadian Arctic Archipelago region and drops it all the way south to northeast Georgia, upper SC as a 2 Contoured-cutoff low. Amazing just to see it progged. Not sure if that's going to be right, but the European and GFS are trending toward that kind of "super amplified pattern". I won't be surprised to see snow flurries and snow showers accompany this feature late Friday night in much of eastern half of Tennessee, northern Alabama, Northern Ga and the Carolinas and southwest, southern Va on Saturday. By Saturday daytime, temps at the ground level will be in the 40's, so I'm leaning toward the better snow shower chances in the mountains and west of the mountains, but strange things have happened when upper lows cross this far south.
Quoting 164. StormTrackerScott:



I think that has always been the center. what people were seeing earlier was that a low level vort was shot out away from the main center which fooled many on here.

Beginning to think 96L may not move into the Yucatan at all as it appears to moving NNW now.



That's what I was thinking , but kinda hard to dodge punches thrown here at times:))
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I think that has always been the center. what people were seeing earlier was that a low level vort was shot out away from the main center which fooled many on here.

Beginning to think 96L may not move into the Yucatan at all as it appears to moving NNW now.



I'm not totally sure on this idea
But the LL spin that was seen earlier WNW of Rotan does not seem to be recognisable anymore even with the RGB night mode but then again it just has a small burst of convection blow on top
The other spin is certainly recognisable even in night mode

And in areas of low pressure when they are developing are known to sometime throw out old LLC a for newer ones
you obviously do not live in the tropics....I am not interested in blizzards many miles away..
have fun anyway

Quoting 146. mcluvincane:



It amazes me that bloggers are actually posting graphics of this lol or anything in the Atlantic for that matter. Seasons done, time to move on to new things here, like nor-Easters. Bring on the snow and wind, Blizzards baby, let's do this!
Quoting 170. stormpetrol:


That's what I was thinking , but kinda hard to dodge punches thrown here at times:))


Hi

How goes it today ?. ex Hanna/ 96L appears to be centered just to the East of Roatan. The earlier apparent center that shot off to the West was a false center IMO. I have seen those before. The last one was with a system just East of the Lesser Antilles that fooled everyone into following it.

The system has not done much today, probably due to proximity to land and its inability to consolidate around a true center. Shear is 20 to 30 knots so conditions not the best either but you never know. 96L has more lives than a black cat.



Invest 96L/ex-Hanna should be no concern moving forward. It's poorly organized now, with dual centers and only scattered shower and thunderstorm activity, and wind shear is on the increase. Proximity to land is also an issue.

It's been fun to watch though.

I had a good left jab, but could never land that heavy right. My guard always dropped too much when I got tired too. ;-)

Quoting 170. stormpetrol:


That's what I was thinking , but kinda hard to dodge punches thrown here at times:))
Scores feared dead in DRC flooding
AFP | 29 Oktober, 2014 00:01
Scores of people were feared dead yesterday in terrible floods that hit the strife-torn east of the Democratic Republic of Congo.
More than 700 homes, a school and a church around Bushushu village in the South Kivu province were reportedly destroyed after heavy rain set off landslides.
Some victims are said to have been swept into Lake Kivu.
"We identified 30 or so bodies on Monday but on Tuesday afternoon I saw 65 [more] bodies," said Crispin Mokili, vice-president of the New Dynamic civil society group.
The heavy rain that has been pounding since the weekend made it difficult to recover the dead. ...

Whole article see link above.

Mind, Africa is a very large continent with bad news of deadly flooding, droughts and high winds every day. But these fresh news look especially dire (apart from all the other mischief in DRC).
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Since
upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive, some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
couple of days. Afterwards, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna, is
located over the western Gulf of Honduras and is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low is expected to move
inland over Belize by early Wednesday, and significant
redevelopment is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel,
Mexico, are not particularly well organized, and it is not yet clear
that the low has developed a well-defined center of circulation.
However, environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is still expected to form
tonight or on Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at
about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Hmm I don't know

It would be extremely promising if convection had stayed and is building over the new spin but currently not seeing that

And it appear the the low level spin WNW of Rotan has stalled completely or just about stalled
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi

How goes it today ?. ex Hanna/ 96L appears to be centered just to the East of Roatan. The earlier apparent center that shot off to the West was a false center IMO. I have seen those before. The last one was with a system just East of the Lesser Antilles that fooled everyone into following it.

The system has not done much today, probably due to proximity to land and its inability to consolidate around a true center. Shear is 20 to 30 knots so conditions not the best either but you never know. 96L has more lives than a black cat.





So you say the center is E of Rotan then
Hmm ... ok I think it is or could be but there's a lot of questions
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Since
upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive, some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
couple of days. Afterwards, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

A low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Storm Hanna, is
located over the western Gulf of Honduras and is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low is expected to move
inland over Belize by early Wednesday, and significant
redevelopment is unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of Puerto Angel,
Mexico, are not particularly well organized, and it is not yet clear
that the low has developed a well-defined center of circulation.
However, environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is still expected to form
tonight or on Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at
about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


I'm sorry but NHC did soo poorly with 93L/TD9/94L/TS Hanna/96L that I just don't believe one word they say about the system

Blue marble loop with Nilofar. Good night with this over there ...
NHC still forecasts it to dissipate over Belize. Organized or not, I'm not sure it ever gets there. Will check back in the morning and see what we've got.

Quoting 179. wunderkidcayman:



So you say the center is E of Rotan then
Hmm ... ok I think it is or could be but there's a lot of questions
Yeah, I don't think that ex hanna is gonna develop.
Nice small explosive blob of convection just popped up on the LL spin WNW of Rotan

But the LL spin has stalled completely
That unmanned rocket that was headed to the ISS from VA exploded.
Anytime an Invest is dropped to 10%, look out, there is high chance nearly 100% that it will be a Tropical Storm by morning ! J/K
96L dropped to 10%/10%. The JSL shows one spot of convection in the last from in what appears to be the center west of Roatan. Still a very weak low headed toward NW Belize. Looks like landfall in the next 4-6 hours...them it either becomes a real remnant or pops out into the BOC and we start all over again.

Quoting 170. stormpetrol:


That's what I was thinking , but kinda hard to dodge punches thrown here at times:))
Makes sense to me. Even if it goes over Playa del Carmen and gets renamed yet once again, and then gets renamed one more time when it exits (sigh) , it still is headed in a northerly direction overall. It is just a Low, they find the place in the atmosphere with the least amount of high pressure to go to.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Anytime an Invest is dropped to 10%, look out, there is high chance nearly 100% that it will be a Tropical Storm by morning ! J/K


Lol

LL spin WNW of Rotan stalled completely and nice small blow up on top of it
Quoting Skyepony:
That unmanned rocket that was headed to the ISS from VA exploded.

yeah, we know. any idea why?
Quoting stormpetrol:
Anytime an Invest is dropped to 10%, look out, there is high chance nearly 100% that it will be a Tropical Storm by morning ! J/K

There is 1 recorded case of that happening. that was TS Hanna.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Nice small explosive blob of convection just popped up on the LL spin WNW of Rotan

But the LL spin has stalled completely

Yeah, okay.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
NHC still forecasts it to dissipate over Belize. Organized or not, I'm not sure it ever gets there. Will check back in the morning and see what we've got.


all right, y'all have made yer points.
Quoting 184. wunderkidcayman:

Nice small explosive blob of convection just popped up on the LL spin WNW of Rotan

But the LL spin has stalled completely


I see 2 centers one near 16.8N/87.1W, just about stationary, small area of convection popping near it, and another near 16.2N/85.8W drifting North void of convection but a much stronger spin!
Quoting 185. Skyepony:

That unmanned rocket that was headed to the ISS from VA exploded.


Blog is currently slow, but not that slow, Skye :-)

140. Doppler22
10:25 PM GMT am 28. Oktober 2014
OMG The rocket just exploded!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

-----------------------

And here a little update for all wondering whether this large landslade/rockfall (I've posted about it this morning and watched the norvegian live reports intermittently all the day, lol) in Norway already occured:

Mannen avalanche: A mountain of chaos
Published: 28 Oct 2014 22:01 GMT 01:00
Senior geologists have admitted they are stumped as to when and even if Mount Mannen in South Norway will suffer an avalanche, it was reported on Tuesday evening.
It was predicted that after heavy rains the avalanche would finally happen on Tuesday, however latest claims suggest the mountain may stabilize and no avalanche will occur. ...


Nevertheless:
Major flooding in Flam, West Norway
Published: 29 Oct 2014 00:03 GMT 01:00

Now I'm really out. 1 a.m. in Germany ;-)
190. 62901IL
Quoting stormpetrol:
Anytime an Invest is dropped to 10%, look out, there is high chance nearly 100% that it will be a Tropical Storm by morning ! J/K

There is 1 recorded case of that happening. that was TS Hanna.

I should have stated new rule! J/K :)
yeah, we know. any idea why?
Looking at it, I'll guess engine anomaly.

Haha, I got told about it like it happened two minutes ago. Forgot what time launch was. I really only watch the ones here real time.
195. JRRP
looks nice
Jokes aside , chances are 96L ex- Hanna is done for! But as Kman said it has more lives than a black cat!


I see this getting ready to make a hard right turn in few hours.
Quoting 173. kmanislander:



Hi

How goes it today ?. ex Hanna/ 96L appears to be centered just to the East of Roatan. The earlier apparent center that shot off to the West was a false center IMO. I have seen those before. The last one was with a system just East of the Lesser Antilles that fooled everyone into following it.

The system has not done much today, probably due to proximity to land and its inability to consolidate around a true center. Shear is 20 to 30 knots so conditions not the best either but you never know. 96L has more lives than a black cat.






I see what you are talking about, one low level spin shooting off to the west north west in this loop and another mid/low level spin about 16N 86W Link

Not much to look at on Belize radar
Quoting stormpetrol:


I see 2 centers one near 16.8N/87.1W, just about stationary, small area of convection popping near it, and another near 16.2N/85.8W drifting North void of convection but a much stronger spin!


I have a theory

Maybe and just maybe the one near 87W has stalled and could retrograde back E towards the stronger spin

It's been known to happen sometimes I've personally seen a few
Quoting 196. stormpetrol:

Jokes aside , chances are 96L ex- Hanna is done for! But as Kman said it has more lives than a black cat!


Nice little flareup

Quoting 195. JRRP:

looks nice



Firing convection, but needs to form a center still..
It's living on borrowed time, so it better consolidate fast..
Quoting stormpetrol:
190. 62901IL
Quoting stormpetrol:
Anytime an Invest is dropped to 10%, look out, there is high chance nearly 100% that it will be a Tropical Storm by morning ! J/K

There is 1 recorded case of that happening. that was TS Hanna.

I should have stated new rule! J/K :)
Just to be fair, they did upgrade it to 30% for the 35 minutes between the 8:00 TWO and the classification to TS. :-)

It really does seem that this...thing...has been out in front of the NHC since it started out in the BOC, and now it looks like it has a chance to get back there again. Kind of reminds of a salmon at this point.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:


Firing convection, but needs to form a center still..
It's living on borrowed time, so it better consolidate fast..


It has one... Or two not 100% sure yet
The big picture...

Quoting 202. Grothar:




MDR looks pretty impressive for this time of year. Bermuda better keep their eyes open as I think anything that tries to form from out here will not make it too far west with the fronts starting to come down.
Quoting sar2401:
Just to be fair, they did upgrade it to 30% for the 35 minutes between the 8:00 TWO and the classification to TS. :-)

It really does seem that this...thing...has been out in front of the NHC since it started out in the BOC, and now it looks like it has a chance to get back there again. Kind of reminds of a salmon at this point.


Ok let's review this
200am
10/10%
800am
30/30%
835am
100/100%
1100am
Advisory issued TS 40mph 1005mb

Still not enough time for the public affected
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The big picture...



Hmm I'm impressed with the ITCZ and atlantic for being this time of year
Gro, one of your best works to date ;-)

Quoting 202. Grothar:


Quoting 209. HaoleboySurfEC:

Gro, one of your best works to date ;-)




However, will this flareup in the ITZC generate into at least one short lived storm? It seems this time of year there is the shear problem making this part of the season tough going for growing these storms. I still believe we will see a future 97L evolve into a storm, the tenth of the season if and only if 95L gets cracking as well.
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


I see what you are talking about, one low level spin shooting off to the west north west in this loop and another mid/low level spin about 16N 86W Link

Not much to look at on Belize radar
Surface map from 1800z shows the low west of Roatan. That's about six hours ago now and I can't imagine that the center has moved east since then...or at least I can't imagine that from a normal storm. :-)

The E Pac system and 96L seem to be flirting a bit.

Quoting 205. GeoffreyWPB:

The big picture...


Quoting sar2401:
Surface map from 1800z shows the low west of Roatan. That's about six hours ago now and I can't imagine that the center has moved east since then...or at least I can't imagine that from a normal storm. :-)



Sar if ya hadn't realize 93L/TD9/94L/TS Hanna/96L was never a normal storm
Quoting 197. stormpetrol:



I see this getting ready to make a hard right turn in few hours.

Didn't you just say chances for 96L are done for, now you say this?.........confused :/
Quoting 213. wunderkidcayman:



Sar if ya hadn't realize 93L/TD9/94L/TS Hanna/96L was never a normal storm

IT was a normal storm my friend, its behavior has been abnormal!
Potent fronts blasting through this weekend. I think more importantly is what will follow in the first half of November. Will the pattern remain the same?

At least we have something to watch.


Quoting 210. rmbjoe1954:



However, will this flareup in the ITZC generate into at least one short lived storm? It seems this time of year there is the shear problem making this part of the season tough going for growing these storms. I still believe we will see a future 97L evolve into a storm, the tenth of the season if and only if 95L gets cracking as well.
Quoting 214. nygiants:


Didn't you just say chances for 96L are done for, now you say this?.........confused :/

Doesn't mean that it will regenerate, just it will probably soon move ENE!


invest 95L starting to look better right now
Looks like the LLC WNW of Roatan has become dominant once again the MLC East of Roatan looks like it is done for, could be consolidating and getting ready to move NE/ENE
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Quoting 217. stormpetrol:


Doesn't mean that it will regenerate, just it will probably soon move ENE!


And what land areas would that affect? Hank, you're getting me worried!
Quoting 218. hurricanes2018:



Could this at all (EVEN A 1% Counts) that this could hit Florida, not based on models but on the climatology.
224...No.
Quoting 223. GeoffreyWPB:



And what land areas would that affect? Hank, you're getting me worried!

Just probably some rains for western Cuba and the Bahamas
Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like the LLC WNW of Roatan has become dominant once again the MLC East of Roatan looks like it is done for, could be consolidating and getting ready to move NE/ENE


Also the MLC to the E is now merging with the blob to the W
Quoting stormpetrol:

Just probably some rains for western Cuba and the Bahamas


Looks like Cuba Cayman and Bahamas
Quoting 227. wunderkidcayman:



Also the MLC to the E is now merging with the blob to the W


Agreed! Hanna is biggest headache for all in a long time!
Quoting 222. stormpetrol:




That is the steering flow I was discussing yesterday. 96L could stall before doing a right turn ( if it hasn't stalled already ) or go ashore and then do a right turn or, go ashore and dissipate. LOL.

This time last night I suggested WNW then NW to the central Yucatan followed by a hard right. Still watching to see what happens.

Does Cosmic still have the dead parrot ??
Quoting 211. sar2401:

Surface map from 1800z shows the low west of Roatan. That's about six hours ago now and I can't imagine that the center has moved east since then...or at least I can't imagine that from a normal storm. :-)




Looking at the same loop Link now the mid level "spin" to the east appears to be weakening. The main area of vorticity appears to be right where the surface chart marks the low as you point out. Or maybe even slightly west of that now. I didn't say that the center moved east in my previous comment I merely stated I saw what Kman was seeing with the two areas of vorticity one low level one mid level. :)

LLC finally matching up with this!
Quoting 232. Saltydogbwi1:



Looking at the same loop Link now the mid level "spin" to the east appears to be weakening. The main area of vorticity appears to be right where the surface chart marks the low as you point out. Or maybe even slightly west of that now. I didn't say that the center moved east in my previous comment I merely stated I saw what Kman was seeing with the two areas of vorticity one low level one mid level. :)


Until this consolidates, if it ever does, true center positions will be elusive.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Agreed! Hanna is biggest headache for all in a long time!


Agreed

Quoting kmanislander:


That is the steering flow I was discussing yesterday. 96L could stall before doing a right turn ( if it hasn't stalled already ) or go ashore and then do a right turn or, go ashore and dissipate. LOL.

This time last night I suggested WNW then NW to the central Yucatan followed by a hard right. Still watching to see what happens.



I do believe it has stalled

It would have already been on shore of it hadn't
Looking fairly stationary at this time.

Quoting kmanislander:
Looking fairly stationary at this time.



Yep
how is the wind shear on invest 95L anyone know!!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Since
upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive, some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
couple of days. Afterwards, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.
Quoting 237. wunderkidcayman:



Yep

I think when its stationary it either getting ready to move one way or another it's all about timing, but I think this will move off to the NNE/NE/ENE
Remnants of Hanna bringing heavy rain to Central America
Tropical Storm Hanna dissipated on Monday evening over northern Nicaragua, just 14 hours after springing into life less than 50 miles off of the coast. Visible satellite images on Tuesday morning showed that the remnants of Hanna were over Northern Honduras and the Western Caribbean, and these heavy thunderstorms will move westwards over Belize, Northern Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday, bringing areas of 3 - 5" of rain. The center of ex-Hanna was located just inland from the northern coast of Honduras on Tuesday morning, and was being tracked as Invest 96L by NHC.

ex-Tropical Storm Hanna had a few invests with it!
244. Mikla
Quoting 239. hurricanes2018:

how is the wind shear on invest 95L anyone know!!

Coming from someone with 83k+ comments, I think this is a trick question (or comment since there was no question mark). But in case it is not and for the benefit of lurkers who may want to know...
Link
And check the "Shear" checkbox... 10-20 kts, moving into higher shear (30+ kts)
Quoting stormpetrol:

I think when its stationary it either getting ready to move one way or another it's all about timing, but I think this will move off to the NNE/NE/ENE


Yep I think as of this point right now it seems like it's already starting to very slowly shift N
Quoting Mikla:

Coming from someone with 83k+ comments, I think this is a trick question (or comment since there was no question mark). But in case it is not and for the benefit of lurkers who may want to know...
Link
And check the "Shear" checkbox... 10-20 kts, moving into higher shear (30+ kts)
The truth is that, shear Will be marginal for the a couple of days, But us obvio is that against all odds, the system is gettíng is act together,...
247. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, post prepaired thru Univ. of Washington
D&T:on CLIP
Type:: WV
http://youtu.be/phFDzayRuYw

luv to post embed, for some reason i have to wait 20 mins on wxretro my 3 other sites 22secs, go figure

forget it
Quoting 248. JrWeathermanFL:

forget it

posters remorse.... just not worth it. :)
crickets
Link
Shows mostly west winds at Roatan airport all day now showing north direction.



This looks to me like the LLC is taking off to the west...exit stage left. The swirl to the east of Roatan will most likely gain convection over night. If the wind is in fact North that also tells us the east low is still a player.

But it's about as piddly as can be anyway...so until it can maintain some convection it's kind of like a gnat in our ear...
Quoting 119. weathermanwannabe:

Good Afternoon.  Arguably, that is the best looking wave that we have seen emerge from Africa all season. Problem it that a) it is October, b) shear is on the rise,  and c) the ITCZ has already started to dip back down so it is way too low for the coreolis effect.  It will probably just end up just coming ashore in South America in all probability.  If this was August, and this wave was at the 9N mark or higher, I would have been worried......... :)




Did you forget the SAL/dry air... :-( The MDR have been so dry in august past few years because of that.

I want a month of August with NO dust between Africa and the Caribbean!!!


That little swirl just entered belize south of dangriga.
254. vis0
Tropical Cyclone Nilofar 201410-28;0400_29;0100

IR
http://youtu.be/-6T21x2jLgU
Quoting 252. CaribBoy:



Did you forget the SAL/dry air... :-( The MDR have been so dry in august past few years because of that.

I want a month of August with NO dust between Africa and the Caribbean!!!
It was more than Sal this couple of years. Sal has always been in the atlantic in every season.
257. JRRP

Hmm I'm seeing multiple low level spins

One near 17.2N 87.8W

Next 16.8N 88.2W

Next E of Rotan near 16.5N 86.0W

Quoting 256. Gearsts:

It was more than Sal this couple of years. Sal has always been in the atlantic in every season.
Lack of vertical instability in the MDR.



Meanwhile, the EPAC is enjoying their fiesta.

It's heartbreaking to see 95L now... easy to know why lol.

:-(((
What I can't understand is all the tropical basins in the world has had higher than normal instability except the Atlantic. The question is what is the cause for that lack of instability. I don't think SAL is the answer, as Gearsts said, the SAL has always been around. Well since the Saharan Desert has existed at least. Is upper level ridging in the Atlantic been stronger than normal? I keep hearing about the Greenland Blocking, so maybe that is part of the reason. Anyways I do believe it is a combination of reasons.

I think 95L chances will be 40/50 or 50/60 next TWO.

Nilofar appears to be getting mummified already...
There will be a game 7 for the World Series tomorrow.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/ 2014102818/gfs_mslp_wind_atltropics.html

Gfs has a nor'easter moving up the coast early next week. Note the very strong ridge over the Ohio valley.
Quoting 264. GTstormChaserCaleb:

There will be a game 7 for the World Series tomorrow.


10-0 royals!
ASCAT of 95L
Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT of 95L
Looks like a circulation is forming.
ASCAT of the wave that just stepped off Africa.

Nilofar intensity..

Year of the landslides continues, 9 are buried in China.
Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT of the wave that just stepped off Africa.

That's actually has a circulation too. Hmmm.
Just did a blog update on the Atlantic tropics. I have changed my tune on 95L and now predict it will become a tropical cyclone by 48 hours. However I think it is very likely this one will stay east of Bermuda.
00z GFS showing 30s all the way down into the Panhandle of FL. for Saturday morning lows.
Quoting 276. GTstormChaserCaleb:




Yay. :/
Quoting 208. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm I'm impressed with the ITCZ and atlantic for being this time of year
Has just thinking the same thing... And I blinked, thereby missing Hanna... Lol ... Bet most of the other bloggers thought we were crazy to be watching that this weekend... ☺
Nor'Easter looks to stay offshore, need to keep an eye on it to see any trends closer to shore. 1031 mb. arctic high building in behind. Radiational cooling nights ahead.



96L ASCAT
If 95L becomes Isais...this will be a big win for the CMC model which sniffed it out before the other models. Usually the CMC overdoes things...but this time it may have gotten one right.
Quoting 208. wunderkidcayman:



Hmm I'm impressed with the ITCZ and atlantic for being this time of year
Has just thinking the same thing... And I blinked, thereby missing Hanna... Lol ... Bet most of the other bloggers thought we were crazy to be watching that this weekend... ☺
FWIW, this is how I see things with 96L. First, we have the surface map showing 96L as a 1011 mb low. By comparison, it was a 1006 mb low last night at this time. The map was current as of 0000z, about five hours ago. Comparing the position now compared to the 1800z map, the low has moved about 70 miles west of Roatan. There seems to be no question that the predominate direction of travel is near to due west. The reporting station within about a 300 mile radius of 96L are reporting calm to very light winds. The wind directions seem to show a very broad area of low pressure. The low was located right at the coast of Belize, somewhere between Dangriga and Belize City, if we can use that area near a center.



Next is the JSL satellite view. This shows the thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the low in red. It appears the position of the low on the surface map from five hours ago has now indeed shifted onshore and made landfall in the vicinity of Dangriga. The low appears to have lost almost all its convection while just offshore but now shows some renewed convection over land. Unfortunately, the airport at Belize City had the only reliable reports from the area (about 50 miles north of my assumed landfall point) but the airport closes down at 9:00 CST (0200z) and the weather observations, along with the radar, cease at the same time. If you're looking at the Belize radar, it's already over three hours out of date. Just the way things are in Belize. The 0200z observation out of Belize City was a pressure of 1014.3 mb, winds from the NE at 5 mph, and mostly cloudy.



I don't know what the 0200 update will say but it looks like what remains of the low is inland and still moving west. It looks like there's some flow coming in off the Pacific starting to mix with 96L's circulation. I don't know what the result of that might be but the general flow in the region is W to WSW and I see no reason that won't continue. 96L should become a remnant low within the next eight hours if it's not one already. However, we've see what has happened with this storm when it became a remnant low several times before this. The only sure forecast I'll make is that 96L is not intensifying and it looks like it will be a real struggle to maintain any kind of circulation get back out into the BOC. We shall see.
I remember the Columbus Day Storm. I was 10 at the time living in the west hills of Corvallis, Oregon. There were some spectacular fireworks when the storm took out a big substation down below us. The storm blew over my favorite climbing tree, a big oak that forked about 5 feet above the ground into two huge branches (at least 3 feet in diameter). Our house was kind of behind the hill protected from the worst of the wind. Our 50 foot black walnut survived.

As far as recent weather we had quite a wind storm on Saturday afternoon (10/25) that took out power for a lot of people up and down the Willamette Valley. It's been raining pretty heavily and we're expecting more rain as the week goes on with some snowfall in the High Cascades.
I still can't quite figure out why 93E has been so slow to organize despite a 100/100 for nearly 24 hours now. Looking at the SHIPS file, there are a few negative contributors, such as relative humidity (57% as of the 6z initialization), negative 850 mb vorticity, and lack of upper-level divergence.

That being said, the shear is still light, and we should still see this system become a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.
286. MahFL
Quoting 201. JrWeathermanFL:



Firing convection, but needs to form a center still..
It's living on borrowed time, so it better consolidate fast..


40 kts of shear = no chance.
287. MahFL
Quoting 153. juracanpr1:


The worst is the lot of money expended just for nothing


Well they got a big firework !
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's going to be a beautiful Fall day in west central Louisiana today. Slight chance of rain, but temps around 75.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: omelets with cheese, green peppers, mushrooms and bacon bits, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, cheesy grits with shrimp, blueberry pancakes with syrup, yogurt, fresh fruit and coffee or tea. Enjoy!
just counted my fingers if 95 gets a name that will be #9
291. MahFL
Hmm, now convection is increasing on ex Hanna.

GFS is giving me a nice little change over from rain to snow sunday night. hmmm :D
Today :



Tomorrow :

pretty sure 95 will eventually get a name. persistant convection just waiting for the time. could there be one or two more after 95? i think at least one. my character is an expert at guessology
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure extending from near the northern Leeward
Islands northeastward over the Atlantic for a few hundred miles is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are currently marginally conducive, and some
development of this disturbance is possible during the next day or
so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. After that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
Quoting 291. MahFL:

Hmm, now convection is increasing on ex Hanna.


this storm just wont give up and is defying the experts lol,how many times has this supposedly died and came back again
Anyone here from Virginia??....wondering IF you heard that 200 Million dollar rocket explode last night? 6 minutes after liftoff..200 million dollars gone POOF,up in smoke huh,im wondering how much of that was tax payers dollars?
Quoting LargoFl:
Anyone here from Virginia??....wondering IF you heard that 200 Million dollar rocket explode last night? 6 minutes after liftoff..200 million dollars gone POOF,up in smoke huh,im wondering how much of that was tax payers dollars?


The news said it was a "contracted rocket" by NASA.
So NASA most likely paid the company to build the rocket.
300. MahFL
Quoting 298. LargoFl:

Anyone here from Virginia??....wondering IF you heard that 200 Million dollar rocket explode last night? 6 minutes after liftoff..200 million dollars gone POOF,up in smoke huh,im wondering how much of that was tax payers dollars?

And what if some was tax payer dollars ? It's not like they blew it up on purpose. It's called an accident.
mah no more :"negative waves" thanks donald sutherland for those two great words.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I still can't quite figure out why 93E has been so slow to organize despite a 100/100 for nearly 24 hours now. Looking at the SHIPS file, there are a few negative contributors, such as relative humidity (57% as of the 6z initialization), negative 850 mb vorticity, and lack of upper-level divergence.

That being said, the shear is still light, and we should still see this system become a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

A convectively-suppressed kelvin wave is passing across the East Pacific.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure extending from near the northern Leeward
Islands northeastward over the Atlantic for a few hundred miles is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are currently marginally conducive, and some
development of this disturbance is possible during the next day or
so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. After that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hanna/96L is dropped (again).
Quoting 299. LargoFl:

Anyone here from Virginia??....wondering IF you heard that 200 Million dollar rocket explode last night? 6 minutes after liftoff..200 million dollars gone POOF,up in smoke huh,im wondering how much of that was tax payers dollars?


While the anti-government loons are already screaming about the "taxpayer dollars" lost because of this--and a certain cable network is wasting oxygen blaming the White House for the mishap--it was a fully-insured private commercial spaceflight. And just as with any other entity that fails to fulfill a government contract, the taxpayer is off the hook. IOW, the loss is on Orbital Sciences and its insurer...
Quoting 300. MahFL:

And what if some was tax payer dollars ? It's not like they blew it up on purpose. It's called an accident.


Thankfully its mission was to resupply the ISS. There were no humans on board. So it could have been worse.
Just in case you missed it the 0Z Euro was mighty interesting as it is developing this Central Atlantic wave and sends it west toward the Bahamas at the end of its run. It will be interesting to see if the Euro is consistent with this feature or drops it on the next run.



307. MahFL
Quoting 305. rmbjoe1954:



Thankfully its mission was to resupply the ISS. There were no humans on board. So it could have been worse.


There was Halloween treats onboard the rocket for the ISS crew, now they will have to go without :(. But they still have a nice view.
Quoting 303. Sfloridacat5:




Hanna/96L is dropped (again).


Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Just in case you missed it the 0Z Euro was mighty interesting as it is developing this Central Atlantic wave and sends it west toward the Bahamas at the end of its run. It will be interesting to see if the Euro is consistent with this feature or drops it on the next run.





Yes, interesting i guess. But in the meantime, no rain for FL as we are in our dry season now.



The Euro almost has a confused look in its long range model.

This vort over SE Texas gets pulled into the Gulf and what appears to be a Sub Tropical Storm is getting pulled west toward FL due to a strong ridge to the north. Its almost as if the Euro wants to merge this upper low over SE with this STS east of FL. If you loop the run you can see both features going around each other almost like one big trough gathering around FL at day 10.

Very interesting - Maybe not the best idea to be dependent on the Russians.

Russia is to deny the US future use of the International Space Station beyond 2020 and will also bar its rocket engines from launching US military satellites as it hits back at American sanctions imposed over Ukraine crisis

Link

The US space agency NASA is working with companies to develop space taxis with the goal of restoring US transport to the station by 2017, but the United States currently pays Russia more than $60 million per person to fly its astronauts up.
Boy look at how far south the Euro dives the southern jet at day 10. This is about the only way FL can get hit by a tropical or sub tropical storm from the east in November. So I would watch this Central Atlantic wave as things may get interesting in the long range.

Very dry in FL. No rain in about 2 weeks and the incoming front doesn't seem to be a big rain maker either.
Quoting 317. tampabaymatt:

Very dry in FL. No rain in about 2 weeks and the incoming front doesn't seem to be a big rain maker either.
yes hopefully Friday we May..get a shower..sure could use a good soaking rain here.
Quoting 317. tampabaymatt:

Very dry in FL. No rain in about 2 weeks and the incoming front doesn't seem to be a big rain maker either.


It has been been dry lately and I'm afraid that once this cold blast hit this weekend then things will dry out even faster.
Quoting 322. rmbjoe1954:



The tropics are alive people! From the looks of it we may get at least 2 named storms afterall.

The government made it so practical for its citizens to rack up debt as interest rates have been near zero for a long time. This also forced many reitred folks to go into bankruptcy as their long term investments no longer generated interest income. The rationale for all of this was to make it easy for folks to spend like drunken sailors to make the economy move. The biggest fear is that the interest rates will sooner or later have to rise, and government interest payments will go through the roof and the economy will start to sputter.This scenario will make the stock market dive big time. When will this occur? Sooner then later I'm afraid. You see, the US economy never really recovered on its own after the fiasco of 2007/2008. It recovered due to massive governemnt spending.
yes something may be in the wind for us down the road
Quoting 322. rmbjoe1954:



The tropics are alive people! From the looks of it we may get at least 2 named storms afterall.

The government made it so practical for its citizens to rack up debt as interest rates have been near zero for a long time. This also forced many reitred folks to go into bankruptcy as their long term investments no longer generated interest income. The rationale for all of this was to make it easy for folks to spend like drunken sailors to make the economy move. The biggest fear is that the interest rates will sooner or later have to rise, and government interest payments will go through the roof and the economy will start to sputter.This scenario will make the stock market dive big time. When will this occur? Sooner then later I'm afraid. You see, the US economy never really recovered on its own after the fiasco of 2007/2008. It recovered due to massive governemnt spending.



It's possible based on the Euro but the Euro could easily flip flop to nothing on the next run. we just have to wait and see if we see consistency as the pattern the Euro has is a very odd one for November but not unheard of.
Quoting 313. Sfloridacat5:

Very interesting - Maybe not the best idea to be dependent on the Russians.

I don't know that such blanket statements are necessarily valid. For instance, Russia successfully launched a cargo ship to the ISS early this morning some hours after the OSI vehicle exploded...
Quoting Neapolitan:

I don't know that such blanket statements are necessarily valid. For instance, Russia successfully launched a cargo ship to the ISS early this morning some hours after the OSI vehicle exploded...


Yes, that's the point.
We have to rely on the Russians to do anything is space.
This cargo is for a space station the Russians are going to deny the U.S. to use.
So it's for their space station by 2020 if they get their way.

The cargo ship that was launch this morning is what lead me to the story about the Space Station.
Quoting 298. LargoFl:

Anyone here from Virginia??....wondering IF you heard that 200 Million dollar rocket explode last night? 6 minutes after liftoff..200 million dollars gone POOF,up in smoke huh,im wondering how much of that was tax payers dollars?
We will learn from this and be able to advance our knowledge of space launches because of this failure. Sometimes we have to step back to go forward. Thankfully this did not cost us lives... Innovation is expensive, but I am willing to pay for scientific endeavors, as are many others. Science, even its failures, IMO, is much better than stimulating the economy by bombing the Middle East.

I'm sure those bloviating about this mishap are the same ones warmongering against the rest of the world because they pray to a different deity or have a different accent/tint to their skin or other manufactured difference in philosophy.
Quoting 326. Neapolitan:


I don't know that such blanket statements are necessarily valid. For instance, Russia successfully launched a cargo ship to the ISS early this morning some hours after the OSI vehicle exploded...


I wouldn't trust the Russians either.
Quoting WxGuy2014:


Our nation debt is almost 18 trillion dollars. 10 years ago it was just 8. We are not on the right path im afraid.

With an incompetent Congress who puts their political agendas ahead of what's right for the people, how could we be?
The United States should not have to rely on any other country, Russia in particular given the current geopolitical climate, to send our citizens into space. It's not just a trust issue. It's the fact that the greatest space faring nation in world history is now paying tens of millions of dollars per person to Putin and his cronies to put Americans in space. There's a lot of potential in the private space flight industry here in the US. Companies like Orbital Sciences and SpaceX. Accidents happen, thankfully no one was hurt in this past one. We have to learn. But paying Russia to use their spacecraft is a disgrace. Do it yourself, or don't do it at all.
Invest 95L

Invest 95L
Last Updated Oct 29, 2014 06 GMT
Location 19.0 61.3W Movement NW
Wind 35 MPH
Quoting 330. TropicalAnalystwx13:


With an incompetent Congress who puts their political agendas ahead of what's right for the people, how could we be?


On both sides both red & blue. We need to work together not against one another.
Is this a weather blog or CNN comment section?



snow coming to my house i love it!!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I wouldn't trust the Russians either.


Russians are just sticking it to the Americans.

(CNN) -- It didn't take a rocket scientist to predict that NASA's plan to pay Russia to launch American astronauts into orbit wasn't going to turn out well.

Three years after NASA retired the space shuttle program, relations between the United States and Russia are worse than at any point since the end of the Cold War. Americans have reportedly been paying Russia $70 million a seat to send our astronauts to the International Space Station. That's three and a half times what the Russians charge private space tourists for the same ride on their 1960s-era spacecraft.
337. JRRP
19.5n
62.0w

Quoting 320. StormTrackerScott:



Normally I wouldn't plus you but this post deserves it I just don't understand what this administration is doing anymore now the talk is the Obama administration wants to bring Ebola patients from Africa to here in the US for treatment. Now talk about a dumb move.


That's funny, came here looking for a look at the tropics and instead Fox News broke out!
And btw I'm still waiting for this... Its been a week already:

629. StormTrackerScott
6:47 AM EDT on October 22, 2014

I think the streak of hurricanes hitting FL may run out early next week.

628. StormTrackerScott
6:45 AM EDT on October 22, 2014

I can't stress enough on how dangerous of a pattern this is for FL this weekend and early next week.
95 is well on the way to being a td the answer to the ebola problem is to develop a vacine.
Quoting 330. TropicalAnalystwx13:


With an incompetent Congress who puts their political agendas ahead of what's right for the people, how could we be?

I hoped that what happened with Eric Cantor was a sign of things to come, but it doesn’t seem that way. The same corrupt dopes just keep getting re-elected. Our congress has been an embarrassment for a very long time and it’s a significant problem. Both Democrats and Republicans.
Quoting 334. ncstorm:

Is this a weather blog or CNN comment section?


Both
Quoting 334. ncstorm:

Is this a weather blog or CNN comment section?


Just put those people on ignore, isn't that your solution to everything?
Quoting 334. ncstorm:

Is this a weather blog or CNN comment section?


LOL! Good morning ncstorm. Anything on the ensembles in regards to this wave in the Central Atlantic?
344. MahFL
Quoting 313. Sfloridacat5:

Russia is to deny the US future use of the International Space Station beyond 2020...


That's just political bluster, likely in 2020 the same people won't be in charge anyway.
Quoting capeflorida:


That's funny, came here looking for a look at the tropics and instead Fox News broke out!
And btw I'm still waiting for this... Its been a week already:

629. StormTrackerScott
6:47 AM EDT on October 22, 2014

I think the streak of hurricanes hitting FL may run out early next week.

628. StormTrackerScott
6:45 AM EDT on October 22, 2014

I can't stress enough on how dangerous of a pattern this is for FL this weekend and early next week.


Thankfully the weather in FL has been absolutely perfect the past week. I just follow the NWS forecasts and never look out past 5-7 since things change so much. And i never believe most of the long range models anyways due to their errors and certainly dont listen to the hype a few bring to those models.
Quoting 338. capeflorida:



That's funny, came here looking for a look at the tropics and instead Fox News broke out!
And btw I'm still waiting for this... Its been a week already:

629. StormTrackerScott
6:47 AM EDT on October 22, 2014

I think the streak of hurricanes hitting FL may run out early next week.

628. StormTrackerScott
6:45 AM EDT on October 22, 2014

I can't stress enough on how dangerous of a pattern this is for FL this weekend and early next week.


Many on here thought the samething then over night the models changed. It happens as weather changes all the time.
Quoting 345. WxGuy2014:



Thankfully the weather in FL has been absolutely perfect the past week. I just follow the NWS forecasts and never look out past 5-7 since things change so much. And i never believe most of the long range models anyways due to their errors and certainly dont listen to the hype a few bring to those models.


One should always consult their NWS. Post on here by me are my opinions.
Does anyone have a Euro snow output for the Appalachians ? I know it's got to be more than the GFS is showing
Enough playing time to get some work done. See u guys later.
350. MahFL
ex Hanna is half way across the Yucatan heading to the Pacific.

Quoting 327. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, that's the point.
We have to rely on the Russians to do anything is space.
This cargo is for a space station the Russians are going to deny the U.S. to use.
So it's for their space station by 2020 if they get their way.

The cargo ship that was launch this morning is what lead me to the story about the Space Station.


A) We certainly do NOT " have to rely on the Russians to do anything is space". Not sure where you heard that. The US has hundreds of spacecraft both in Earth orbit and flitting about the solar system.

2) The ISS is owned by a consortium of countries and organizations; Russia can no more "deny access" to it than they can deny access to the ocean. And the ISS is a highly cooperative venture; Russia can no more operate the space station on its own than could NASA, or the ESA, or Canada, or Japan.

3) Again--and because some seem to have missed the point--last evening's launch failure is a burden OSI and its insurance carrier will have to bear; it's not on us, the American taxpayer, any more than you'd be on the hook for a new car if the pizza delivery guy were to crash while speeding to your house.

4) Perhaps most importantly: if true space exploration and exploitation is ever to be achieved, we're going to have to get out of the way of our petty nationalistic squabbling. So, really, what difference does it make who gets us there?
Quoting 342. tampabaymatt:



Just put those people on ignore, isn't that your solution to everything?


Well TB guy..I only put people on ignore who constantly only come on here to disrupt the blog and talk constantly about only one person..however in your case you don't have to worry about that as you stated previously you did the same thing and we wont see those posts from you any more..



Quoting 343. StormTrackerScott:



LOL! Good morning ncstorm. Anything on the ensembles in regards to this wave in the Central Atlantic?


nah..I just logged on real quick during a break at work, haven't had time to look or put anyone on ignore yet..I was reading the comments first..



Quoting 352. ncstorm:



Well TB guy..I only put people on ignore who constantly only come on here to disrupt the blog and talk constantly about only one person..however in your case you don't have to worry about that as you stated previously you did the same thing and we wont see those posts from you any more..






Yeah, pretty much. Instead of trying to dictate how I think the blog should be, I am just putting those on ignore I'd rather not see posts from. It's an amazing concept and I'm glad I listened to those who suggest it. Posts that are criticizing the content of the blog just make the problem worse.

Quoting 330. TropicalAnalystwx13:


With an incompetent Congress who puts their political agendas ahead of what's right for the people, how could we be?
Do you realize it is "we the People" who control who is in congress? If you don't like them, vote them out next week. And also, the past three presidents (especially the current one) are the ones who raised our debt so much. If you recall, Congress was actually trying to NOT increase the debt this last go-around. 

The ebola issue is getting slightly frightening for Americans given the fact that the fed is going out of its way to seemingly allow it to spread within our country... 

Tying this into weather, the military suggests Ebola will become more easily spread through aerosols when it gets cold this winter... Something we will have to keep a very close eye on. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-28/ebola-vi rus-more-likely-spread-through-aerosols-–-and-su rvive-longer-–-when-it’s-col
Quoting 317. tampabaymatt:

Very dry in FL. No rain in about 2 weeks and the incoming front doesn't seem to be a big rain maker either.


Raining where I'm at..
Pensacola that is.. :)
As far as I know, we are still part of Florida..
Quoting 348. weatherlover94:

Does anyone have a Euro snow output for the Appalachians ? I know it's got to be more than the GFS is showing
You can view ECMWF snow plots here...;)


But really, besides for basic ECMWF plots, you have to pay to see the Euro. WeatherBell is one site for example, where you have to pay over $100/yr to see a bunch of model output, including the ECMWF and ECMWF ensembles. One thing about the snow output is that it is just a 10:1 liquid to snow ratio and it covers all frozen precip types. This means that while it can show 12" of snow for an area, that area wouldn't be getting 12" if there is sleet, freezing rain etc or if the ratio is less, or greater, than 10:1.
Quoting 356. pcola57:



Raining where I'm at..
Pensacola that is.. :)
As far as I know, we are still part of Florida..


Have you had a lot of rain in the past 2 weeks in Pensacola?
Quoting 358. tampabaymatt:



Have you had a lot of rain in the past 2 weeks in Pensacola?


Actually no tampabaymat..
Maybe .3-.5"..
Was glad to see it though..
We have,at my personal location unfortunately, roadwork being done and the dust from it is terrible..
Such is progress.. :)
I honestly enjoy these political debates, even if I usually don't participate in them.

My criterion for ignoring people is actually much simpler: if I think you don't want to learn how to properly forecast and evaluate conditions after repeated failures and blatantly ignoring constructive criticism from people who are more knowledgeable, then it's to the list with you.

My list is at about... 160 by now, I think? But admittedly, a lot of those people I don't even remember.
Found this morning:

Stormscapes 2 from Nicolaus Wegner on Vimeo.
Quoting 338. capeflorida:



That's funny, came here looking for a look at the tropics and instead Fox News broke out!
And btw I'm still waiting for this... Its been a week already:

629. StormTrackerScott
6:47 AM EDT on October 22, 2014

I think the streak of hurricanes hitting FL may run out early next week.

628. StormTrackerScott
6:45 AM EDT on October 22, 2014

I can't stress enough on how dangerous of a pattern this is for FL this weekend and early next week.


LOL. That is why looking at models past a few days is worthless. All it does is create a lot of unnecessary hype and then people get worked up (including me). The weather here is Florida couldn't be better and is going to get even better by the weekend. We could use some rain but I think we have just a slight chance as the front moves through.
Quoting 356. pcola57:



Raining where I'm at..
Pensacola that is.. :)
As far as I know, we are still part of Florida..


Luv the beaches in the Pensacola area.
today is the second anniversary of sandy......147 deaths....650,000 homes destroyed and left 8.5 million without power

Quoting 366. ricderr:

today is the second anniversary of sandy......147 deaths....650,000 homes destroyed and left 8.5 million without power
I enjoyed forecasting that storm. Mostly because of the insanely rare track.
I though there may be discussion on the possibility of remnants of 93E being picked up, and pulled into a rain system in some of the drought plagued south central US. Personally, this is a very interesting possible scenario. Could go a long ways in filling reservoirs, etc in parts of Texas/Oklahoma where there has been a many year drought, unlike some that are in a drought of two weeks. Some of the reservoirs in this area are at less than 10% of full. Effectively, they don't exist.

Instead, the government is trying to kill us all (Just STUPID!), the government is wasting money using private enterprise (but isn't the Fox mantra is that a private company will do EVERYTHING BETTER THAN THE GOVERNMENT? and DON'T interfere with private enterprise no matter how they do it? let them use those surplus Russian rockets!) and the Russians, we have to do it ourselves (but don't spend a damn penny of MY TAXES). WOW! The crackpots are out in force this morning.
Quoting 356. pcola57:



Raining where I'm at..
Pensacola that is.. :)
As far as I know, we are still part of Florida..


LOL pcola. Unfortunately some times we floridians think of you being SW. Alabama
I think Russia still suffers a reputation for some of the mishaps from the early days of their space program.

Quoting 326. Neapolitan:


I don't know that such blanket statements are necessarily valid. For instance, Russia successfully launched a cargo ship to the ISS early this morning some hours after the OSI vehicle exploded...
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Russians are just sticking it to the Americans.

(CNN) -- It didn't take a rocket scientist to predict that NASA's plan to pay Russia to launch American astronauts into orbit wasn't going to turn out well.

Three years after NASA retired the space shuttle program, relations between the United States and Russia are worse than at any point since the end of the Cold War. Americans have reportedly been paying Russia $70 million a seat to send our astronauts to the International Space Station. That's three and a half times what the Russians charge private space tourists for the same ride on their 1960s-era spacecraft.


CNN's coverage of this event is beyond terrible. I literally saw them try to take up the angle that the rocket was carrying some sort of spy satellite because NASA needed to secure the area when it was a commercial resupply vehicle to the ISS. I'd try not to quote mass media in the future regarding activities in space. Sites like SpaceFlightNow are much more reliable.
Patton didn't.

Quoting 329. StormTrackerScott:



I wouldn't trust the Russians either.
CNN's coverage of this event is beyond terrible. I literally saw them try to take up the angle that the rocket was carrying some sort of spy satellite because NASA needed to secure the area when it was a commercial resupply vehicle to the ISS. I'd try not to quote mass media in the future regarding activities in space. Sites like SpaceFlightNow are much more reliable.


it was carrying a classified payload....anything beyond that is speculation
I enjoyed forecasting that storm. Mostly because of the insanely rare track.


i think many didn't think it could be as powerful as it was as far north as it went
Instead, the government is trying to kill us all (Just STUPID!), the government is wasting money using private enterprise (but isn't the Fox mantra is that a private company will do EVERYTHING BETTER THAN THE GOVERNMENT? and DON'T interfere with private enterprise no matter how they do it? let them use those surplus Russian rockets!) and the Russians, we have to do it ourselves (but don't spend a damn penny of MY TAXES). WOW! The crackpots are out in force this morning.


:-)

Quoting 374. ricderr:

I enjoyed forecasting that storm. Mostly because of the insanely rare track.


i think many didn't think it could be as powerful as it was as far north as it went
As usual the SSHWS threw them off.

"Oh it's only a Category 1", when the wind field was actually expanding due to baroclinicity.
My childhood home destroyed. Point Pleasant Beach, NJ.

Quoting 366. ricderr:

today is the second anniversary of sandy......147 deaths....650,000 homes destroyed and left 8.5 million without power
Also, before people start chiming in that the discussion of the explosion is off-topic, I'll point out that if this indeed an NK-33 engine failure, that's a huge concern for the future of rocket engines in the United States. Some of you may have already been aware of the huge debate inside the space community regarding Russian engines (ex: Atlas V uses the RD-180 engine, SpaceX uses their own, American made engines called the Merlin-1D). Companies like United Launch Alliance and Orbital Sciences are already looking into US replacements such as the BE-4 on new generation launch vehicles.

The point I'm trying to make here is that the weather satellites we enjoy for hurricane season such as GOES, et. al., are all launched by these rockets. If there's a disruption in the supply of rockets, future generations of these satellites might be delayed or cancelled altogether. (GOES-R is scheduled to launch on an Atlas V in 2016 on an Atlas V, powered by an RD-180 engine).

Quoting 378. CybrTeddy:

Also, before people start chiming in that the discussion of the explosion is off-topic
Who cares if they say it's off-topic? We're under surveillance by the mods anyway, so if they take issue with whatever we're discussing, then... well... :)
Quoting ricderr:
CNN's coverage of this event is beyond terrible. I literally saw them try to take up the angle that the rocket was carrying some sort of spy satellite because NASA needed to secure the area when it was a commercial resupply vehicle to the ISS. I'd try not to quote mass media in the future regarding activities in space. Sites like SpaceFlightNow are much more reliable.


it was carrying a classified payload....anything beyond that is speculation


Nothing on there was classified that was considered a primary or secondary payload. There were zero military purposes for this mission, absolutely none. The only thing that's classified is the coding and configuration of the flight-termination system (FTS) that all rockets have which is why they needed to secure the beach. You don't want someone picking up sensitive data related to the FTS, selling it off to a hacker, and that hacker using the data to blow up future launches.
"I could tell you, but then I'd have to ignore you."

lol

Quoting 373. ricderr:

CNN's coverage of this event is beyond terrible. I literally saw them try to take up the angle that the rocket was carrying some sort of spy satellite because NASA needed to secure the area when it was a commercial resupply vehicle to the ISS. I'd try not to quote mass media in the future regarding activities in space. Sites like SpaceFlightNow are much more reliable.


it was carrying a classified payload....anything beyond that is speculation
Quoting 373. ricderr:

CNN's coverage of this event is beyond terrible. I literally saw them try to take up the angle that the rocket was carrying some sort of spy satellite because NASA needed to secure the area when it was a commercial resupply vehicle to the ISS. I'd try not to quote mass media in the future regarding activities in space. Sites like SpaceFlightNow are much more reliable.


it was carrying a classified payload....anything beyond that is speculation


am this happy that this rock it went boom back here on earth and not when it got in too the space staion tha woud have not been good if it happen up there
NASA said the cargo also included "classified crypto equipment."
"I could tell you, but then I'd have to ignore you."


lol
Quoting 378. CybrTeddy:

Also, before people start chiming in that the discussion of the explosion is off-topic, I'll point out that if this indeed an NK-33 engine failure, that's a huge concern for the future of rocket engines in the United States. Some of you may have already been aware of the huge debate inside the space community regarding Russian engines (ex: Atlas V uses the RD-180 engine, SpaceX uses their own, American made engines called the Merlin-1D). Companies like United Launch Alliance and Orbital Sciences are already looking into US replacements such as the BE-4 on new generation launch vehicles.

The point I'm trying to make here is that the weather satellites we enjoy for hurricane season such as GOES, et. al., are all launched by these rockets. If there's a disruption in the supply of rockets, future generations of these satellites might be delayed or cancelled altogether. (GOES-R is scheduled to launch on an Atlas V in 2016 on an Atlas V, powered by an RD-180 engine).



i dont care if this if off topic or not you or not a mod so you cant tell us what we can or can not talk about on this blog all so has hurricane season is widing on down we are now enterning off topic season and this explosion of the rock it is a great way too kick off off topic season
Quoting 383. ricderr:

NASA said the cargo also included "classified crypto equipment."


No they didn't. CNN said that NASA said that. Ever play the game of telephone? Same thing.
Quoting 385. Tazmanian:




i dont care if this if off topic or not you or not a mod so you cant tell us what we can or can not talk about on this blog all so has hurricane season is widing on down we are now enterning off topic season and this explosion of the rock it is a great way too kick off off topic season


I don't think I'm disagreeing with you, Taz.
Quoting pcola57:


Raining where I'm at..
Pensacola that is.. :)
As far as I know, we are still part of Florida..
I'm glad to hear you're getting some rain. Over here in the real L.A., we're not getting anything. Looks like this front is going to wash out before it gets here, just like all the others have done lately. Going to get really cold over the weekend, with dry winds and a low of 34 Saturday night and a high of only about 55 during the day. I'll have to water the plants and cover them up for the night. Geez! :-)
has i was saying am happy that this explosion happen back here on earth it would have been a big distasr if it happen at the space station if that where it was heading

Quoting 389. Tazmanian:
has i was saying am happy that this explosion happen back here on earth it would have been a big distasr if it happen at the space station if that where it was heading



By the time the payload gets to the space station, there is no rocket - so it can't blow up at the station.
The press site perspective..

No they didn't. CNN said that NASA said that. Ever play the game of telephone? Same thing.


have you watched the nasa press conference
393. MahFL
Quoting 382. Tazmanian:



am this happy that this rock it went boom back here on earth and not when it got in too the space staion tha woud have not been good if it happen up there


When it got to the station the part that blew up would not be attached. It was a first stage failure. The first stage either burns up in the atmosphere or ends up on the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean.
Today's the 2nd anniversary of superstorm sandy making its dreaded (and unprecedented) left turn right into the jersey shore.
Quoting 392. ricderr:

No they didn't. CNN said that NASA said that. Ever play the game of telephone? Same thing.


have you watched the nasa press conference



I watched the entire thing on NASA TV. That's where the information I posted regarding the FTS came from. There were no classified payloads aboard. There is classified FTS data on the rocket.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZN9XBX6KwQ

This is a satellite loop of sandy's life cycle.
Quoting 393. MahFL:



When it got to the station the part that blew up would not be attached. It was a first stage failure. The first stage either burns up in the atmosphere or ends up on the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean.



but what would happen if that part that blew up did not de attached
Quoting 363. luvtogolf:



LOL. That is why looking at models past a few days is worthless. All it does is create a lot of unnecessary hype and then people get worked up (including me). The weather here is Florida couldn't be better and is going to get even better by the weekend. We could use some rain but I think we have just a slight chance as the front moves through.


The "I" storm of DOOOOOOOM!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Also, before people start chiming in that the discussion of the explosion is off-topic, I'll point out that if this indeed an NK-33 engine failure, that's a huge concern for the future of rocket engines in the United States. Some of you may have already been aware of the huge debate inside the space community regarding Russian engines (ex: Atlas V uses the RD-180 engine, SpaceX uses their own, American made engines called the Merlin-1D). Companies like United Launch Alliance and Orbital Sciences are already looking into US replacements such as the BE-4 on new generation launch vehicles.

The point I'm trying to make here is that the weather satellites we enjoy for hurricane season such as GOES, et. al., are all launched by these rockets. If there's a disruption in the supply of rockets, future generations of these satellites might be delayed or cancelled altogether. (GOES-R is scheduled to launch on an Atlas V in 2016 on an Atlas V, powered by an RD-180 engine).
I guess I'll join in the off-topic thing so we can all get banned at once then. :-) It just seems crazy to me that we were once the leader in space exploration and things like the Space Station, after we took it by brute force from the Russians in the 60's. Now we're not only giving it back to the Russians, we're paying them so they can steal our technology again.

There was a lot of talk in the amateur radio community about the payload. The consensus by those in a "position to know" is that it did carry a hardware and software upgrade to the communications monitoring package that's been on the Space Station for at least the last seven or eight years. The Space Station has its own monitoring package to look at earth bound communications for any threat to the Space Station so action can be taken before the "problem" occurs. The upgrades were to allow for unscrambling of encrypted radio traffic so it could be analyzed by the on-board computer system. This all for normal radio traffic however, not NSA strength encryption. I suspect the FTS was the important bit, as you said.
Mean while back at the Caymans.........

.

I see two centers forming one at 16.8N.........
NO NO NO! I see three! one is at 16.7N.......
All of you are wrong!!!, the real center is at 16.9N!!!!!!

Quoting Skyepony:
The press site perspective..

I wonder if they chase tornadoes when there's no rocket launches?
Quoting capeflorida:
Mean while back at the Caymans.........

.

I see two centers forming one at 16.8N.........
NO NO NO! I see three! one is at 16.7N.......
All of you are wrong!!!, the real center is at 16.9N!!!!!!

Thank goodness 96L appears to be really gone this time. That "storm" was really getting annoying.


wow!!!
UK Met office to receive new Cray XC40
Link

In the US though...

Quoting 404. sar2401:

I wonder if they chase tornadoes when there's no rocket launches?


I've been only a few miles away from a much more powerful rocket known as the Space Shuttle, so I think I've got these guys beat! :)
The circulation has become a little better-defined, but it's rather small and still no west winds on the south side. With a marginally favorable upper wind environment, however, it has a brief chance at becoming a tropical cyclone before the shear increases again this weekend.


2 Years after "Superstorm" Hurricane Sandy.

Wow, what a hurricane she was. The 18th named storm of the very busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season.

She measured about 1000 miles across - a monster of a storm!

The 2nd most costly storm after Katrina. Still unbelievable that a storm of that magnitude hit the Northeast USA, in late October!

Glad to see the resilience of the residents of the Northeast ... rebuilding their lives along the coast.




Quoting 409. KoritheMan:

The circulation has become a little better-defined, but it's rather small and still west winds on the south side. With a marginally favorable upper wind environment, however, it has a brief chance at becoming a tropical cyclone before the shear increases again.





Appears low level circulation is heading west...........


Link
412. JRRP
Quoting 362. Neapolitan:

Found this morning:

Stormscapes 2 from Nicolaus Wegner on Vimeo.


Breathtaking and extremely beautiful! Thanks for posting, Nea!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Appears low level circulation is heading west...........


Link


Leaving its convection behind, by the looks of it.

Quoting 411. nrtiwlnvragn:



Appears low level circulation is heading west...........


Link
Yeah. None of the guidance indicated that motion.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I've been only a few miles away from a much more powerful rocket known as the Space Shuttle, so I think I've got these guys beat! :)
Yeah, I don't know what all the yelling and cursing were about. It's not like the rocket was out of control and headed for the press tent. I sometimes think that journalists don't live in the same world as me. :-)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting sar2401:
Yeah, I don't know what all the yelling and cursing were about. It's not like the rocket was out of control and headed for the press tent. I sometimes think that journalists don't live in the same world as me. :-)


It's a natural reaction, imo. If you've ever stood in front of one of these things launching you know the absolute power they radiate when they launch. If a Space Shuttle ever blew up in front of me (never did, fortunately, as Challenger was before my time) I'd have ran for it even if I was out of the blast zone.
419. JRRP
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Appears low level circulation is heading west...........


Link

it's exposed
Quoting LargoFl:
$100 Million Dollars = 1 year of work for 3500 average Americans
It takes 3500 Americans 1 year of work to make $100 Million dollars. The 155 million Americans who worked with earnings in 2005 on average made $28,567 / year.



Or 3 days of unearned income for the Koch brothers , 27 hrs net profit for ExxonMobil ,it's all relative dude. Off topic but I get your point.
Another great post Jeff. Thanks. A local expert here in the PNW, Cliff Mass, has written an interesting book documenting many of these weather events...The Weather of the Pacific Northwest. Rob :o)
this area in Canada sure catches a lot of storms huh................................