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A Rare Easter Typhoon for the Philippines; Chile Flood Toll: 107 Dead or Missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:27 PM GMT on April 03, 2015

Typhoon Maysak will be a rare and unwelcome Easter visitor this weekend in the Philippines' Luzon Island. The people of the Philippines are used to seeing tropical cyclones, but not during Easter! Only seven tropical storms or typhoons have hit Luzon between January and April since 1945, an average of one such storm every ten years. At 2 pm EDT Friday the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) put Maysak's top sustained winds at 90 mph, and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) put Maysak's central pressure at 975 mb. Satellite loops on Friday afternoon showed the storm's heavy thunderstorms have shrunk greatly in areal coverage and intensity since the storm's Category 5 days, and an eye is no longer distinct. Maysak was under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and there is some dry air surrounding the storm that will get driven into the core by the wind shear, further weakening the storm before landfall. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is predicting that Maysak will be a Category 1 typhoon with 75 mph winds when it hits Luzon this weekend, and the main threat from the storm will be heavy rains causing flash floods. The 12 UTC Friday runs of the GFS and European models predicted that the center of Maysak would come ashore in Luzon near 20 UTC (4 pm EDT) Saturday. The 06 UTC Friday run of the GFDL model predicted that Maysak would bring a modest area of 4 - 8" of rain to northern Luzon, which is less than the typical tropical storm brings to the Philippines, and should not result in catastrophic flooding.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and typhoons to affect the Philippines' Luzon Island between the months of January - April. Only seven such storms have hit Luzon since 1945, an average of one every ten years. Image credit: NOAA.

Maysak kills 9 in Micronesia
Maysak is responsible for widespread destruction and at least nine deaths in the Federated States of Micronesia. Estimates from The Red Cross suggested that there were at least 5,000 people who were in desperate need of food, water and shelter, and needed emergency assistance. Maysak passed through the Chuuk State of Micronesia over the weekend as a Category 1 typhoon, and Maysak's southern eyewall passed over the sparsely populated islands of Fais and Ulithi in the Yap State of Micronesia while the storm was at Category 5 strength. Most structures on Ulithi not made of concrete were damaged or destroyed by Maysak's powerful winds. The entirety of the island's crop were ruined by the typhoon's storm surge, with early estimates indicating that it would be a full year before crops could be planted again, due to salt water intrusion. Robert Speta has more details on the impacts on Ulithi on his Twitter feed.

Chile flood toll: 107 dead or missing
The death toll in Chile from severe flooding that hit March 23 - 26, 2015, is now 24, with 83 others officially listed as missing. According to EM-DAT, this would rank as Chile's 4th deadliest flood in recorded history. Although rainfall amounts were generally less than 2" (50.8 mm), the rains fell on Northern Chile's Atacama Desert region--the driest place on the planet. Antofagasta, which averaged just 3.8 mm of precipitation per year between 1970 - 2000, and has a long-term average of 1.7 mm of precipitation per year, received a deluge of 24.4 mm (0.96 inches) during the 24 hour period ending at 8 am EDT March 26. That's over fourteen years of rain in one day! According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, some areas in the Atacama Desert saw the equivalent of a century or so of rain in few hours. The 4 mm of rain that fell on the driest place on Earth--Quillagua, Chile--on March 23 - 25 was the first rain there in 23 years, and the amount that fell was about the same amount that had fallen in the previous fifty years. The rains triggered flooding that damaged some houses in the town. Apparently, the previous rain episode in Quillagua before 2015 was in 1918 or in 1919. All other precipition events were from blowing drizzle.

This is a chronicle of the biggest rainfall events in Antofagasta, Chile with daily amounts above 10 mm over the past century (from Maximiliano Herrera, who maintains a comprehensive set of extreme temperature records on his web site):

18 May 1912: 24 mm
3 July 1925:  16.3 mm
5 July 1927: 12.6 mm
13 July 1928:  13.3 mm
21 August 1930: 26.2mm/27.1mm (2 stations)
30 June 1932:  11.0 mm
13 June 1940:  39.4 mm/38.0 mm (2 stations)
27 July 1987:  22.8 mm
18-19 June 1991: 42.0 mm/17.0 mm (2 stations)

The 1912, 1940 and 1991 rain events all caused floods that had catastrophic consequences in terms of economical and human losses.


Video 1. Incredible flooding in ‪Chanaral, Chile‬, on March 25, 2015. I've seen flood videos of cars, trucks, and houses being washed downstream before, but railroad cars? Yikes! A better version of this video with sound is available on Facebook.


Video 2. Flash flooding in a town near the Chile/Peru border on March 25, 2015.

Chile's heavy rains were due to an unusually strong and persistent "cut-off" low pressure system that was trapped along the coast by an exceptionally strong ridge of high pressure, which also brought about another remarkable weather event--the warmest temperatures ever recorded in Antarctica (63.5°F). A cold front associated with the cut-off low hit the Andes Mountains, dumping rains over soils with very little vegetation (due to the dry climate.) Unusually warm ocean temperatures approximately 1°C (1.8°F) above average off of the coast meant that high amounts of water vapor were available to fuel the storm and generate exceptionally heavy rains. Heavy precipitation events are common in Chile during El Niño events, like we are experiencing now. El Niño brings warmer than average waters to the Pacific coast of South America where Chile lies.

This week’s WunderPoster: Aurora
Last month provided high-latitude
skywatchers with a spectacular example of the aurora, the phenomenon highlighted in this week’s WunderPoster. Commonly referred to as the “northern lights” (aurora borealis) or “southern lights” (aurora australis), these sky shows are a product of electrons spewed from the sun that interact with gases in Earth’s outermost atmosphere, anywhere from about 50 to 300 miles above the surface. Auroral activity is greatly enhanced when gigantic bursts of electromagnetic energy emerge from the sun’s surface during solar storms.


Figure 2. Katy Turk captured this amazing aurora from eastern Alaska last month. Image credit: wunderphotographer katy97780.

Have a great Easter weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters and Bob! Happy Easter to the both of you!

(From the previous blog)
Looks like Maysak is making a little bit of a comeback.

Next week may bring a severe weather outbreak. Thanks for the update Doc!
Sirs, quite a bunch of bad news in the Easter post! Thanks a lot anyway, peaceful holidays and thoughts to all those people severly affected by Maysak and the flash floods in Chile (the linked facebook video is really mind blowing!) ...

Concerning flash flooding, here a fascinating video I just came across (especially 3:20):


02.04.2015: A flashflood reached the northern Red Sea Gulf of Aqaba and was filmed by research divers. The incoming flood produced a gravity flow hyperpycnal flow which was then measured and studied. Never before has this been recorded on film. Further information and the detailed study available at: Katz, T., Hinat, H., Eyal, G., Steiner, Z., Braun, Y., Shalev, S., Goodman-Tchernov, B.N., 2015. Desert flash floods form hyperpycnal flows in the coral-rich Gulf of Aqaba, Red Sea. Earth Plentary Sci. Lett. 417 417, 87-98. Leaders of the Research team are national geographic emerging explorer Beverly Goodman (University of Haifa) and Timor Katz (Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Research). Video by Gal Dishon.

Scientists Witness Spectacular Flood Into the Red Sea
Posted by Andrew Howley of National Geographic Society in Explorers Journal on April 3, 2015
Somebody get Moses on the phone.
A team of researchers including National Geographic Emerging Explorer Beverly Goodman have witnessed a remarkable Red Sea flooding event of their own (read the scientific paper).
Confirming for the first time what had never been witnessed in the area before, the team watched and recorded as the brown waters from a recent flashflood rushed towards the sea and instead of mixing with it, continued to hug the bottom and flow under the salty water. ... Seen from above, the billowing clouds of silt resembled vast thunderstorms viewed from an airplane. ...
we'd be jumping up and down if Maysak was headed towards s fl. huge seas are with it
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
500 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN TROUSDALE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 457 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OLD HICKORY...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS
LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MOUNT JULIET AROUND 505 PM CDT.
BELINDA CITY AROUND 510 PM CDT.
LEBANON AROUND 520 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE DICKERSON CHAPEL RECREATION
AREA AND TUCKERS CROSSROADS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
While the rain was useless here on land in D.C it helped a man that was lost at sea for 66 days
Live local TV coverage from Nashville...

Link
From the last Blog...

Quoting 256. Torito:


Us farmers over here in Maryland use almost no water. We rely on the rain to do it for us. Very interesting to see such a difference over there. Maybe someone should try to develop crops that take much less water than normal.
Torito, there are such crops. However, when water was cheap and plentiful, people realized that with the mild weather and long growing seasons, they could grow water intensive crops and make a living, and this transferred to capital and machinery intensive modern industrial agriculture with its greater economic efficiency.

The capital intensity of modern farming, coupled with subsidies and incentives, makes change difficult. People expect to get bailed out, and use fossil water - ground water that is not being replenished - to try to buy time and maintain the status quo.

The day will come when the government won't be able to bail everyone out and keep the economics of the U.S. agriculture "system" going, because greed and politics, not science and logic, are the primary controllers of agricultural directions. However, whether climate change and drought in California is primarily "natural" or heavily influenced by AGW/CC, changes will need to be made.

As you depend on rainfal for farming in Maryland, California depends on snowfall and spring and summer melt to provide water for its farming, That snowfall isn't happening these days in the mountains of California. So while non-agricultural industry and business could more easily continue to thrive with a lot less water than in the past, the current mix of farming and agribusiness cannot.

Unfortunately, both California and Maryland agriculture will suffer if precipitation patterns evolve more towards boom and bust (floods and droughts) as expected with AGW/CC. California - especially central and north, might get significant precipitation from an El Niño pattern. But knowing how human nature and politics work, I fear that farmers and agribusiness corporations will try to go back to BAU - small farmers because of human nature, and the corporations because of a suicidal focus on short-term return on investment.

Even with an ethical and astute current governor - Jerry Brown - California agriculture will have difficulty adapting because of idiotic demands by shortsighted and greedy people who will ignore the findings of science.

Here's a LINK to a great "Modern Farmer" article titled "When the Well Runs Dry, Try Dry Farming" which is about some possibilities for dry farming and examples of current dry farms in California.

Unfortunately, when a farmer goes to get a loan for dry farming and tells the loan manager that "yields will be reduced" he is facing an uphill battle because of some of the inherent weaknesses in the current U.S. economic system that demands ever-increasing growth and profit - a classic clash between capitalism and nature that calls for new, visionary and practical leaders.
Thank you,Mr Henson and Dr.Masters.
About to get whacked with severe thunderstorm..I,m in the county that looks round with a point on the S.E.corner. Warren..

Quoting 8. GeoffreyWPB:

Live local TV coverage from Nashville...

Link


Mom shot me an email today with a statement "guess its spring" and underneath she listed out the tornado watch box and other info from the NWS for Middle TN. Thinking about calling now that the storms are gone.

First time I've had Wi-Fi on my laptop since Tuesday. Woot.
Quoting 12. Astrometeor:



Mom shot me an email today with a statement "guess its spring" and underneath she listed out the tornado watch box and other info from the NWS for Middle TN. Thinking about calling now that the storms are gone.

First time I've had Wi-Fi on my laptop since Tuesday. Woot.
Greetings Astro...Woot.?...i should flag you now..:)
Quoting 13. hydrus:

Greetings Astro...Woot.?...i should flag you now..:)


Woot as in a sarcastic yay. I think every student here at school wants the entire tech team fired. Everytime they say "the internet will be off for an hour and then it will be up and running great", they make it worse.

Next week is registration for fall classes...hoping that the internet works when my scheduling time rolls around.



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN GEORGIA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 850 PM
UNTIL 100 AM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
Cell on TN/AL Border has debri signature..Just north of New Market.
Quoting 14. Astrometeor:



Woot as in a sarcastic yay. I think every student here at school wants the entire tech team fired. Everytime they say "the internet will be off for an hour and then it will be up and running great", they make it worse.

Next week is registration for fall classes...hoping that the internet works when my scheduling time rolls around.



The wi-fi on campus is spotty at times as well at my university.
Quoting 12. Astrometeor:



Mom shot me an email today with a statement "guess its spring" and underneath she listed out the tornado watch box and other info from the NWS for Middle TN. Thinking about calling now that the storms are gone.

First time I've had Wi-Fi on my laptop since Tuesday. Woot.


Don't ask me why-but I got to wondering about the term "Middle" TN this evening

I had no idea until just a bit ago that "Middle" TN is a precise area of the state legally defined by a certain set of county boundaries. I was most pleased to learn that the parts on each side of the middle are not legally called the "left end" and the "right" end.
Quoting 18. beell:



Don't ask me why-but I got to wondering about the term "Middle" TN this evening

I had no idea until just a bit ago that "Middle" TN is a precise area of the state legally defined by a certain set of county boundaries. I was most pleased to learn that the parts on each side of the middle are not legally called the "left end" and the "right" end.


Benton County, TN used to be in NWS Nashville's area of jurisdiction until like last year when they handed it over to Memphis. No idea if that has anything to do with the legal rules you found.
Tornado warning for Huntsville,Al now.....
Middle Tennessee is a distinct portion of the state of Tennessee, delineated according to state law as the 41 counties in the Middle Grand Division of Tennessee.[1]
With the addition of (at least) 7 tornadoes yesterday and 7 tornadoes during last week's event, the year-to-date tornado count is up to a whopping 40.

Link
Severe storm was very impressive . 60 mph gusts and small hail..Makes a helluva racket..:)...More branches down , but they probably needed to come down anyway lookin the way they did.
I was most pleased to learn that the parts on each side of the middle are not legally called the "left end" and the "right" end.

That's because they're called the left "side" and the right "side".

(runs)
Jackson County Al., Tornado Warning... Line almost into NW Georgia.
Quoting 24. aquak9:

I was most pleased to learn that the parts on each side of the middle are not legally called the "left end" and the "right" end.

That's because they're called the left "side" and the right "side".

(runs)


Kinda makes ya wonder about Middlesex....
(chases)


fonder memories for California
(although the southern sierras getting 100+ inches of snow in a week might not be fond memories for people who lived there)
Meanwhile, in Central FL, it is getting quite dry. The National Weather Service forecast shows low chances (20-30%) of isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon over the next week. The Weather Channel has 40-80% chances of rain for 6 of the next 10 afternoons. I hope the NWS is just being conservative. At least mid-90s are out of the latter forecast for next week.
29. vis0
CREDIT::NOAA, aviationweather.gov
D&T:: on animation/mp4 (till 201504-03;2245UTC)
SUBJECT:: 2015 Cyclone Maysak

http://youtu.be/b2HmUV_yVe0(160x160)**


**(was hoping to "letterbox" it at youtube so one could have the interface controls in view, but such a simple thing would take 40 mins)
Quoting 27. nwobilderburg:



fonder memories for California
(although the southern sierras getting 100+ inches of snow in a week might not be fond memories for people who lived there)


I don't think I've ever seen a map with remotely close to that high of over precipitation totals overall for California over a 5 day period. That would be impressive for late June here in Florida.
Here's the olde folks opinions when "we" freak about it
Thundersnow





Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code

Cool YouTube channel btw.
Quoting 27. nwobilderburg:


fonder memories for California
(although the southern sierras getting 100 inches of snow in a week might not be fond memories for people who lived there)


looks like a very strong El-Nino building the next 3 months and it appears this upcoming Fall/Winter is going to be very rainy and snowy across the higher elevations of California.

Philip Klotzbach@philklotzbach · 7h 7 hours ago

Not a drought buster by any means, but at least some decent rain/snow headed to California over the next seven days.
I love these videos so much, lol....

But HOW do they not know Cantore? Hello? Like, come on, all the old people that I know know who he is...Grothar knows.
Comment deleted
Hey Scott, I hope this month proves to be rainier than last. The heat is certainly getting cranked up around here.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
TYPHOON CHEDENG
11:00 AM PhST April 4 2015
=============================

Typhoon "CHEDENG" has accelerated slightly as it continues to move closer to Isabela-Aurora area

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Chedeng [Maysak] (972 hPa) located at 14.7N 126.0E or 450 km east southeast of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gustiness up to 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #2 (This area will have stormy weather with heavy to intense rains. Residents along coastal areas are alerted against possible Storm surges of up to 2 meters)

Luzon Region
============
1. Isabela,
2. Southern Cagayan
3. Kalinga
4. Mt. Province
5. Ifugao
6. Benguet
7. Nueva Viscaya
8. Quirino
9. Aurora
10. Catanduanes

Signal Warning #1 (These areas will have occasional rains with occasional gusty winds)

Luzon Region
============
1. Rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Island
2. Apayao
3. Ilocos Norte
4. Ilocos Sur
5. Abra
6. La Union
7. Pangasinan
8. Nueva Ecija
9. Tarlac
10. Pampanga
11. Bulacan
12. Rizal
13. Quezon
14. Camarines Norte
15. Camarines Sur

Additional Information
===================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 150 km radius of the typhoon.

It is expected to make landfall over the coast of Southern Isabela by Sunday morning (April 5), will exit the landmass via Ilocos Sur by Sunday afternoon (April 5) and will exit PAR by Monday morning (April 6).

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas of the provinces with PSWS #2 and PSWS #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Storm surges and sea surface waves of up to 2 meters are possible over the eastern coast of Aurora, Quezon and Isabela.

Fisher folks are advised not to venture out over the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon and eastern seaboard of Bicol Region and of Visayas.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5PM today.
Quoting 35. MaxWeather:

Astro... you messed up the entire blog
nice one dude


Not my fault WU has issues with their own coding. Apparently you're not allowed to pause a video, and then hit "quote".
Quoting 34. Astrometeor:

I love these videos so much, lol....

But HOW do they not know Cantore? Hello? Like, come on, all the old people that I know know who he is...Grothar knows.

Not everyone knows anything about other than their worlds.

#38... I had no idea what you did there
I don't expect any sub 80 degree cooldowns till sometime around April 10th-15th for Central and south Florida.
Is there any aerial videos (helicopter or small plane) of that flood event in Chile? Those ground level videos are amazing and I would like to see video from above and with a larger field of view.
Good evening all...

Happy Easter to those that Celebrate Easter.

Happy Passover to those that celebrate Passover.
Both my Mom and my little brother were unaware that there was a tornado warning, apparently someone was snoozing and didn't turn the sirens on...

Said they got a 1/2" of rain in 30 minutes and otherwise nothing interesting. Which is different from the reports of trees down from high winds from around the area. Mom was trying to find hail, didn't see any.
Dang ball droppers.... That sucks astro.
Quoting 30. HurrMichaelOrl:



I don't think I've ever seen a map with remotely close to that high of over precipitation totals overall for California over a 5 day period. That would be impressive for late June here in Florida.


I'd rather see what the real totals were though, WPC precip maps not being high resolution make west precip events like they are worse than they are due to higher totals on mountain slopes. I mean in my opinion, who cares what that forecast looked like if we have historical data instead.
Quoting 23. hydrus:

Severe storm was very impressive . 60 mph gusts and small hail..Makes a helluva racket..:)...More branches down , but they probably needed to come down anyway lookin the way they did.


Nice, sounds fun! I would imagine an awful lot of stuff came down. We have family that lived in western NC in the woods for a while. We would visit fairly often, and in May a when we visited several years back a cold front squall in came through and although we had gusts I estimate around 40-45 mph several trees and large branches came down.

Trees in the Appalachians seem to come down scary easy from my experience.
Quoting 46. Jedkins01:



Nice, sounds fun! I would imagine an awful lot of stuff came down. We have family that lived in western NC in the woods for a while. We would visit fairly often, and in May a when we visited several years back a cold front squall in came through and although we had gusts I estimate around 40-45 mph several trees and large branches came down.

Trees in the Appalachians seem to come down scary easy from my experience.


It's not like we get hurricanes up here Jed.

Back here in Middle TN, it takes winds stronger than that to bring the native maples and oaks down. I've only seen a couple healthy oaks be brought down in my life, deep root channels keep them well anchored. It's only when they die do they become a serious threat to property.
I was going through some of my old weather bookmarks tonight and I found this one from NOAA Hurricane Research Division.



So this must be a change for the better, right? Inefficient government service being replaced by the private sector, better to serve the public? Maybe not so much, I found.

HWind Scientific, LLC
hwind.co

Founded: 2014 Located: Tallahassee

"We help the insurance industry reduce natural hazard uncertainty by producing real-time analysis and forecasting of tropical cyclones. "

H*Wind analysis is no longer available to the public. Some slick deal for a company in Tallahassee, well known to peninsular Floridians as the cesspool of politics. From their own site, it was true revolving-door rip-off:

"Our services are built on HWind, the Real-time Hurricane Analysis System that was invented by our founder, Dr. Mark Powell when he worked at NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. NOAA's Office of Technology Transfer assigned the rights for Hwind to Dr. Powell in the winter of 2014 and Hwind Scientific was formed soon after."

Yeah, this Dr. Powell is a real hero, stealing from the public and giving to the insurance companies. He "invented" wind analysis all by himself, while standing on the backs of scientific giants and ours too. Thanks Dr. Powell.
They post some great aurora pictures over at Astronomy Picture of the Day from time to time.

Link (Click on "Link" and hover mouse over picture to identify stars reflected in the lagoon)

Several key conditions came together to create this award-winning shot. These included a dark night, few clouds, an epic auroral display, and a body of water that was both calm enough and unfrozen enough to show reflected stars. The featured skyscape of activity and serenity appeared over Iceland's Vatnajokull Glacier a year ago January, with the Jokulsarlon Iceberg Lagoon captured in the foreground. Aurora filled skies continue to be common near Earth's poles as our Sun, near Solar Maximum, continues to expel energetic clouds of plasma into the Solar System.


Link

It appeared, momentarily, like a 50-km tall banded flag. In mid-March, an energetic Coronal Mass Ejection directed toward a clear magnetic channel to Earth led to one of the more intense geomagnetic storms of recent years. A visual result was wide spread auroras being seen over many countries near Earth's magnetic poles. Captured over Kiruna, Sweden, the image features an unusually straight auroral curtain with the green color emitted low in the Earth's atmosphere, and red many kilometers higher up. It is unclear where the rare purple aurora originates, but it might involve an unusual blue aurora at an even lower altitude than the green, seen superposed with a much higher red. As the Sun continues near its top level of surface activity, colorful nights of auroras over Earth are likely to continue.
Quoting 45. Jedkins01:



I'd rather see what the real totals were though, WPC precip maps not being high resolution make west precip events like they are worse than they are due to higher totals on mountain slopes. I mean in my opinion, who cares what that forecast looked like if we have historical data instead.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summari es/event_reviews/2010/West_Coast_Heavy_Precip_Dec2 010.pdf

From December 18-23, 2010, a series of strong Pacific storm systems impacted the west coast of the U.S., resulting in an extended period of heavy rain and snow across the region. Rainfall totals in excess of two feet fell in portions of southern California, with some snowfall totals in the Sierra Nevada estimated in excess of 200 inches. Figure 1 shows the 24-hour Stage IV quantitative estimated precipitation (QPE)
across the western U.S. for the duration of the event. One can see that rainfall amounts of
3 to 6 inches in 24 hours were common, especially in areas where the precipitation was orographically enhanced. Daily rainfall records were set in Los Angeles and Santa Barbara, 2.80 inches and 2.79 inches, respectively, on December 19.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #67
Storm Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (T1504)
15:00 PM JST April 4 2015
====================================
In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maysak (980 hPa) located at 14.8N 125.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
150 NM from the center in northern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS: 17.9N 120.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Luzon, Philippines
48 HRS: 19.2N 118.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 20.5N 117.0E - Tropical Depression in South China Sea
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM HAISHEN (1505)
15:00 PM JST April 4 2015
====================================
In Truks (Chuuk) Waters

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haishen (1002 hPa) located at 8.6N 152.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS: 9.3N 151.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) In Truks (Chuuk) Waters
48 HRS: 10.0N 151.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) In Truks (Chuuk) Waters
72 HRS: 11.3N 150.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) In Truks (Chuuk) Waters
Remember the story of methane craters? Here is the scientific report:

NEW PERMAFROST FEATURE –.
DEEP CRATER IN CENTRAL YAMAL.
(WEST SIBERIA, RUSSIA) AS A RESPONSE.
TO LOCAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS.

Page 68 of the pdf.

Link
Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:



looks like a very strong El-Nino building the next 3 months and it appears this upcoming Fall/Winter is going to be very rainy and snowy across the higher elevations of California.


Broken clocks.....
Quoting 41. alceeingi:

Is there any aerial videos (helicopter or small plane) of that flood event in Chile? Those ground level videos are amazing and I would like to see video from above and with a larger field of view.

Photo galleries here:
Imagenes aereas evidencian estragos de aluviones en Copiapo y Chanaral

Imagenes aereas muestran magnitud del dano tras aluviones en region de Atacama



Another video (of many) from the ground:


Flooded Univerity of Atacama:
Ex-Typhoon Maysak: 24,000 to be evacuated as tropical storm closes in on Philippines
ABC News, Updated 16 minutes ago
About 24,000 people from the Philippines are being evacuated with former Typhoon Maysak, now downgraded to a tropical storm, due to strike the country's north-east coast mid-morning on Sunday, officials say.
Storm surges, flash floods and landslides remained potential threats even though Maysak, once a super-typhoon, had weakened, with maximum sustained winds of 115 kilometres per hour, they said.
"We plan to move people out of coastal villages," said Nigel Lontoc, a senior civil defence official for the region.
Some 24,000 people from the coastal province of Aurora, where the storm is projected to make landfall, would be evacuated, he said.
As a super typhoon, Maysak battered the Federated States of Micronesia in the central Pacific as a category five storm, but is expected to weaken further as it crosses the main Philippine island of Luzon.
It was also possible the storm would further weaken to between 65 and 85 kilometres per hour by the time it is due to hit the north-east coast Luzon on Sunday morning, said state weather forecaster Jun Galang.
"At those lower intensities, we can eliminate the threat posed by storm surges," he said, referring to giant tsunami-like waves that had prompted local officials to evacuate coastal villages in the area. ..
.

---------------------------

First aerial pictures (April 2) from Ulithi showing the damage caused by Maysak:
I know I mentioned several days ago the 6-10 day z500 synoptic pattern was going to favorable for at least a heightened period of severe wx & analogous to top 10 most violent tornado seasons (w/ most EF3+ tornadoes) w/ a ridge in the GOA, & favorable downstream (-PNA) configuration: western US troughing, southeast US ridge, Atlantic Canada trough, etc... In their day 6 outlook, the SPC has already highlighted a large 30% risk area, this will probably receive upgrades in subsequent outlooks & may eventually become our first high risk of the year...



The 105 & top 8 most severe CIPS analogs are generally in line w/ the SPC's day 5 outlook, although capping issues have left some uncertainties west of I-35 in Oklahoma & Kansas



All SPC severe wx reports (top 15 analogs)


Probability of severe wx based on top 8 "most severe" analogs (1979-present)


Quoting 57. Webberweather53:

I know I mentioned several days ago the 6-10 day z500 synoptic pattern was going to favorable for at least a heightened period of severe wx & analogous to top 10 most violent tornado seasons (w/ most EF3+ tornadoes) w/ a ridge in the GOA, & favorable downstream (-PNA) configuration: western US troughing, southeast US ridge, Atlantic Canada trough, etc... In their day 6 outlook, the SPC has already highlighted a large 30% risk area, this will probably receive upgrades in subsequent outlooks & may eventually become our first high risk of the year...



The 105 & top 8 most severe CIPS analogs are generally in line w/ the SPC's day 5 outlook, although capping issues have left some uncertainties west of I-35 in Oklahoma & Kansas



All SPC severe wx reports (top 15 analogs)


Probability of severe wx based on top 8 "most severe" analogs (1979-present)






Dang. I may need to watch for storms thursday. GFS showed that western trough digging in for a couple days so we'll wait and see.
Early risers! Did anyone catch a photo of the lunar eclipse?
Flood Insurance Rates To Increase April 1 for Thousands of Homes Along U.S. Coastline

Flood insurance rates are set to skyrocket when a new bill goes into effect on April 1. Known as the Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act of 2014 (HFIAA), it's going to drive the prices of flood insurance plans through the roof for residents of all U.S. coastlines.

How much could they increase? In some areas where flood maps show maximum risk, premiums that were previously $500 could be raised to as much as $20,000 a year or more, according to estimates released in 2013. ...................................... Lawmakers say there's one big reason for this new law: FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is broke. It's $24 billion in debt and only able to pay on its interest at this point, and only collected about $4 billion in premiums while insuring nearly $1.5 trillion in property, according to a Government Accountability Office report.


Link
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Early risers! Did anyone catch a photo of the lunar eclipse?


Didn't take any photos, but I watched it this morning. Clear skies and a bright moon made for a real nice eclipse here.
Quoting 59. AstroHurricane001:

Early risers! Did anyone catch a photo of the lunar eclipse?

There is one in WunderPhotos from LtBadd, taken in Clearwater, FL.

Quoting 53. ColoradoBob1:

Remember the story of methane craters? Here is the scientific report:

NEW PERMAFROST FEATURE –.
DEEP CRATER IN CENTRAL YAMAL.
(WEST SIBERIA, RUSSIA) AS A RESPONSE.
TO LOCAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS.

Page 68 of the pdf.

Link


The date of the crater’s formation is estimated to have
been in the late fall of 2013; (5) The high
concentration of methane in the hole, which
decreases in the vicinity of the hole and is
negligible far from the hole, indicates the role
of methane in the formation of the crater; ......................................

The origin of this crater is attributed to
the anomalously warm summer of 2012,
the increased ground temperature and
amount of unfrozen water in the permafrost,
expanding of cryopegs, formation of a
pingo-like mound and its outburst due to
high pressure produced by gas hydrate
decomposition within permafrost. Similar
temperature anomalies may increase in
number in the future decades, presenting
risks for human activities in the region.
Quoting 62. Skyepony:


There is one in WunderPhotos from LtBadd, taken in Clearwater, FL.





I got a picture of it too, but a phone camera doesn't do it justice. :(
Are Harvard's Dying Hemlocks a Warning for Trees Everywhere?



The hemlocks here teem with a pest that’s slowly killing them; their demise is all but inevitable. “I’m hoping some will survive,” said Orwig, the forest’s senior ecologist, “but we’re on borrowed time.”

Harvard’s forest, 70 miles (113 kilometers) west of the university’s campus in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is not alone. These are troubling and confusing times for forests all over the world.


Watching the Woods All Over

The Harvard site is part of a network of some 60 forests around the world called the Center for Tropical Forest Science–Forest Global Earth Observatories (CTFS-ForestGEO), where scientists are studying how forests are responding to the turmoil humans are stirring up. Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira, an ecologist with the network, says its forests are “being impacted by a number of different global change factors. We do expect more of this, be it pests or pathogens or droughts or heat waves or thawing permafrost.”

A recent paper that looked at data from all these sites found that change was the constant, with unique geographical stamps. At Scotty Creek, in Canada’s Northwest Territories, thawing permafrost is shrinking the forest as trees at the edges die. As permafrost melts and the water table drops, the trees’ relatively shallow roots can no longer easily reach it: Despite living in a very wet environment, they’re struggling with drought. (Drought has hit many of the network’s other forests too—including some in Panama, China, and the United States.)


Link
Colorado mountain snowpack low at 69 percent, raising water concerns

Colorado's mountain snowpack is running low — around 69 percent of average — raising concerns about low stream flow during summer and potential strain on water supplies.

A relatively hot, dry March took a toll, melting away snowpack from 87 percent at the end of February.


Link
Quoting 58. TimTheWxMan:




Dang. I may need to watch for storms thursday. GFS showed that western trough digging in for a couple days so we'll wait and see.


Confidence is (has been) fairly high that this will be a high-impact severe weather event over the Plains, Arklatex & Mississippi River Valleys next week... We usually see panhandle/southern Rockies-Great lakes lows during major seasonal shuffling like this (w/ other favorable intraseasonal parameters in place of course), and significant bouts of severe wx are typically observed on the southeastern flanks of these rapidly intensifying lee side lows...

After this period of elevated severe wx, we'll see the pattern go right to what my 2015 hurricane season analogs were showing for the spring w/ most of the US above normal temperature wise, although a persistent trough off Atlantic Canada & prevalence of wetter than normal conditions in the southwestern US & Texas (w/ potential for further enhancement later in the summer via recurving Eastern Pacific TCs) should keep temperatures there seasonable-below normal...








Despite the fact we will observe a rather potent severe weather outbreak later next week, this kind of temperature/low freq configuration (w/ +ENSO/PDO dominance) supports another year of below normal tornado activity...

MAMJJA US Temps top 10 most violent US tornado seasons (left) vs 2015 hurricane season/Antecedent extreme +PDO Winter Analogs (right)



These analogs are in great agreement w/ the underlying Warm PDO/Cold AMO background state...


+PDO/-AMO MAMJJA US temp anomalies (1977-1994) w/ approximately symmetric 1971-2000 climatology
Temperature anomaly matches up pretty well with the SPC's outlook for severe weather next week.

Strong low pressure will form across the Plains and provide a nice punch into Oklahoma/Arkansas/Mississippi Valley.
Neat read from a met working the 1974 Super Outbreak...

Bobby Boyd
Meteorologist
National Weather Service, Old Hickory, Tennessee

When the sun rose on the morning of April 3rd, 1974 I noticed a band of altocumulus castellanus stretching from the eastern sky to the northwest shortly after I turned the weather balloon loose here at Old Hickory. This is indicative of instability and steep mid level lapse rates. It was mostly sunny until the early afternoon. During the afternoon I recall it being warm and somewhat muggy. I also released a noon sounding and remember the showalter Index being a minus 5.

By 4 p.m. a broken layer of Cumulus/Stratocumulus had developed and when I stepped outside and looked up I could see a crystal blue sky above which is indicative of mid level drying. I think the mid level drying played a major role in the super outbreak. I don't recall any storms on radar in western Tennessee during the entire event. It seems like storms developed in Kentucky and northern parts of middle Tennessee during the early afternoon but were scattered. I also recall scattered storms down in the Chattanooga area during the afternoon.

All of these were supercells. The storms that were developing had a lot of free environment to feed off of. Blue skies were all around those afternoon supercells. The Xenia tornado was visible on the Old Hickory WSR-57 around 3:45 p.m. It had the appearance of a supercell with a notch in the southeast side of the storm. That storm was probably 200 nautical miles away from our radar. You don't usually see too many that far away so I figured it was a very strong storm.

During the evening we had a lot of supercell activity on the WSR-57 in middle and eastern Tennessee and over central and eastern Kentucky, and northern Alabama. I recall two supercells in particular both containing tornadoes in the Dekalb/Putnam county areas in which the southern most supercell /parent storm/ actually overtook the hook appendage of the supercell to its northeast. This is the only time in my career, which began in the 1960's, that I have seen this happen.

I recall the supercells generally moving northeast at 50 knots with echo tops at times running close to 60,000 feet. The storms were explosive. They would develop on radar and rapidly intensify and go from 25,000 feet to 50 and 60,000 feet in height in a very short time. I have seen storms explode like that but not as many as during the super outbreak. It seemed like all of them did.

The super outbreak of April 3rd & 4th, 1974 is by far the worst event that I have worked during my career.
Behind the front here,,cool and cloudy with drizzle. 59.7F



Quoting 68. Sfloridacat5:

Temperature anomaly matches up pretty well with the SPC's outlook for severe weather next week.

Strong low pressure will form across the Plains and provide a nice punch into Oklahoma/Arkansas/Mississippi Valley.

I hope that weakens before reaching our neck of the woods..We got whacked last night.
<---- going to the House of Blues to watch Jr. and His band perform in the French Quarter tonight..and may get wacked as well hydrus.

: )
Quoting 72. Patrap:

<---- going to the House of Blues to watch Jr. and His band perform in the French Quarter tonight..and may get wacked as well hydrus.

: )
I could definitely use that type of whacking..I,ve been going almost 8 years straight without a break.
take a break and come for a visit, Jazz Fest is soon.
CSU Forecaster Calls For Below Average Hurricane Season
April 1, 2015 7:39 AM


“We are expecting to put out a forecast with a below average hurricane season due to a couple of factors. First of all, El Niño is going to be present during the hurricane season. El Niño is warmer than normal waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. What that does is increase the upper level westerly winds that tear apart storms trying to form in the Atlantic,” said Klotzbach.

The most southern track of the jet stream in an El Niño season allows for the southern United States to see above-average rainfall which would be good news for drought-stricken areas from California to Texas.

In South Florida, residents need to be on guard for the potential for an active severe weather season beginning earlier than usual especially in April and May.

Atlantic Ocean conditions will also play a major role this year.

“The tropical Atlantic is also somewhat cooler than normal this year. Cooler than normal water means less fuel for the storms, higher pressures and a more stable atmosphere that tends to suppress the storm activity that hurricanes need to thrive,” said Klotzbach.

Klotzbach said his team will issue their first official forecast for this year’s hurricane season on April 9th. Over the last 30 years they have considered an average hurricane season to consist of 12 tropical storms, six to seven hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes reaching at least a Category 3 status on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was below-average. We saw nine tropical cyclones and eight named storms, the fewest named storms since 1997.

Link
Quoting 74. Patrap:

take a break and come for a visit, Jazz Fest is soon.
My gut tells me I will when the fates permit it...Meanwhile, life moves on with a hurried step...:)
chili clips? thats why you do build around a dry creek bed.
hi guys


got me a new HP laptop with AMD 10 QM with 17.3" screen on friday so this is my late B day gift still have my other 15.6 AMD 8 QM laptop wish is all so HP been a HP fan for a long long time i have had dell be for but i like HP march better in fact HP is the only laptop i will used has they will last you a vary long time
Quoting 81. Tazmanian:

hi guys


got me a new HP laptop with AMD 10 QM with 17.3" screen on friday so this is my late B day gift still have my other 15.6 AMD 8 QM laptop wish is all so HP been a HP fan for a long long time i have had dell be for but i like HP march better in fact HP is the only laptop i will used has they will last you a vary long time


Happy belated birthday. Happy you are enjoying your gift
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi guys


got me a new HP laptop with AMD 10 QM with 17.3" screen on friday so this is my late B day gift still have my other 15.6 AMD 8 QM laptop wish is all so HP been a HP fan for a long long time i have had dell be for but i like HP march better in fact HP is the only laptop i will used has they will last you a vary long time
That's very cool Taz. Hope you enjoy it.
12Z GFS for next Friday.

Strong low pushing out into the Plains, which should trigger a pretty wide spread severe outbreak.
It all depends on timing.



Looking for my 70th prediction right now...
I'll have an update to my scorecard graphic tomorrow Easter Sunday

Last 5 predictions on my list:
65. 882mb 13-6-3
66. Webberweather53 8-4-2
67. Jlpr2 10-3-1
68. Severstorm 9-4-2
69. Wxlogic 8-7-1
Thursday April 9 is when CSU will issue their Hurricane Forecast
Colorado State University

QUALITATIVE DISCUSSION OF ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY FOR 2015
So much dust!
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Temperature anomaly matches up pretty well with the SPC's outlook for severe weather next week.

Strong low pressure will form across the Plains and provide a nice punch into Oklahoma/Arkansas/Mississippi Valley.
Here's my report after spending the last five days in the slightly moderately enchanced zone. Nothing. I mean no thunderstorms, not even a shower. Ranged from very warm to hot the entire time with a some clouds. It was even pretty humid from time to time. Not even a drop of rain. This is what I "think" happened -

1. The Cap. The atmosphere was strongly capped the entire time. Thursday looked like the best day to get something going. We had a typically chaotic sky with clumus rising between the midlevel clouds. As they reached 10-12 thousand, they stopped. They just didn't have the punch to break through the cap. This happened all afternoon, and the cap held strong the entire time.

2. Lack of instability. The CAPE hardly even got above 500 kg/j and, when it did, the bulk shear was so poor that we never got destabilization. There was also a persistent cold and dry layer at about 700 mb that contributed to the cap and caused the large hail in north Alabama, where the LLJ was stronger than it was here.

3. No forcing. Without a deep trough over the Plains, we don't get strong cold fronts sweeping through the Deep South. These strong fronts cause a lot stronger return flow from the Gulf and can destroy the cap. We finally got a front early this this morning that at least bought some non-severe thunderstorms to north central AL. Because we didn't have a strong low, the thunderstorms were at the mercy of diurnal cooling, so the few storms that were still along the front dissipated before they got to me. The skinny band of storms in the Florida Panhandle are the remnants of the front. At least there's some daytime heating and some modest destabilization going on there, so maybe they will get some rain.

The outbreak for next week looks more healthy than what we saw this week. However, last week at this time, it looked pretty healthy for this week too. What happens is totally dependent on the strength and timing of the upcoming trough. If it's as strong as being forecast, and if we can get a better return flow off the Gulf, we may see a good outbreak. If not, we'll see a repeat of this week.
Quoting sar2401:
Here's my report after spending the last five days in the slightly moderately enchanced zone. Nothing. I mean no thunderstorms, not even a shower. Ranged from very warm to hot the entire time with a some clouds. It was even pretty humid from time to time. Not even a drop of rain. This is what I "think" happened -

1. The Cap. The atmosphere was strongly capped the entire time. Thursday looked like the best day to get something going. We had a typically chaotic sky with clumus rising between the midlevel clouds. As they reached 10-12 thousand, they stopped. They just didn't have the punch to break through the cap. This happened all afternoon, and the cap held strong the entire time.

2. Lack of instability. The CAPE hardly even got above 500 kg/j and, when it did, the bulk shear was so poor that we never got destabilization. There was also a persistent cold and dry layer at about 700 mb that contributed to the cap and caused the large hail in north Alabama, where the LLJ was stronger than it was here.

3. No forcing. Without a deep trough over the Plains, we don't get strong cold fronts sweeping through the Deep South. These strong fronts cause a lot stronger return flow from the Gulf and can destroy the cap. We finally got a front early this this morning that at least bought some non-severe thunderstorms to north central AL. Because we didn't have a strong low, the thunderstorms were at the mercy of diurnal cooling, so the few storms that were still along the front dissipated before they got to me. The skinny band of storms in the Florida Panhandle are the remnants of the front. At least there's some daytime heating and some modest destabilization going on there, so maybe they will get some rain.

The outbreak for next week looks more healthy than what we saw this week. However, last week at this time, it looked pretty healthy for this week too. What happens is totally dependent on the strength and timing of the upcoming trough. If it's as strong as being forecast, and if we can get a better return flow off the Gulf, we may see a good outbreak. If not, we'll see a repeat of this week.


Yeah, this week wasn't a very good setup. We still haven't had a "classic" severe weather setup yet.
We'll have to watch and see how next week's setup changes over the next few days.

Happy Birthday to Keep. He turns 90 today, and Mrs. Keep got him a new walker. It has a horn and those nifty streamer things that come out of the ends of the handlebars. It even has backup lights. I understand he's out showing it to everyone in the building. That'll take about three or four hours. :-)
May 3, 1999 Moore Oklahoma Tornado Setup





Main cell with the Moore tornado


The state of the Atlantic is as poor as I've ever seen it. Main Development Region SST anomalies have fallen well below average, whereas waters in the subtropical Atlantic are running above average. Different methods will yield different results, but March 2015's AMO value according to CSU's methodology was "in dead heat with 1990 for lowest value since 1950."

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The state of the Atlantic is as poor as I've ever seen it. Main Development Region SST anomalies have fallen well below average, whereas waters in the subtropical Atlantic are running above average. Different methods will yield different results, but March 2015's AMO value according to CSU's methodology was "in dead heat with 1990 for lowest value since 1950."

The gulf looks toasty too.
Quoting Gearsts:
So much dust!
Something looks to be spinning in the middle. You see it too? I know it won't do much, best still.
Quoting 85. MaxWeather:



Looking for my 70th prediction right now...
I'll have an update to my scorecard graphic tomorrow Easter Sunday

Last 5 predictions on my list:
65. 882mb 13-6-3
66. Webberweather53 8-4-2
67. Jlpr2 10-3-1
68. Severstorm 9-4-2
69. Wxlogic 8-7-1
Max, put me down for 13-3-1. I think a lot of invests will get retired this year. :-)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, this week wasn't a very good setup. We still haven't had a "classic" severe weather setup yet.
We'll have to watch and see how next week's setup changes over the next few days.

While I sure hope we don't see another outbreak like 1999 or 2011, some spring outbreaks are needed to bring rain to the Deep South. I don't wish a tornado on anyone, having had part of my house destroyed by one, but it's a risk those of us living in the various Tornado Alley areas go through every year. If we have to undergo that risk, at least have the storms bring us some rain. Just like you guys in SW Florida, the drought is starting to take hold here. It's partly disguised by it just being spring, so everything is still green and blooming. By next month at this time, when 90 every day starts to become normal, we're going to be in big trouble. Not as bad as California but, for us, it's going to be pretty bad. Nice day today though, with a temperature of 76 and low humidity.
Quoting 95. CaneFreeCR:

Max, put me down for 13-3-1. I think a lot of invests will get retired this year. :-)


Lol

Thanks, you're the 70th!
We don't worry about this in Costa Rica... thats the good thing though some run close by
Screw the MDR.I'm more worried about that gulf.
99. JRRP

Quoting 92. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The state of the Atlantic is as poor as I've ever seen it. Main Development Region SST anomalies have fallen well below average, whereas waters in the subtropical Atlantic are running above average. Different methods will yield different results, but March 2015's AMO value according to CSU's methodology was "in dead heat with 1990 for lowest value since 1950."




Not much help from Africa either. Precipitation last year was average to below average across the Northwest Sahel region over Africa, so we can anticipate some robust SAL outbreaks.

Quoting 85. MaxWeather:



Looking for my 70th prediction right now...
I'll have an update to my scorecard graphic tomorrow Easter Sunday

Last 5 predictions on my list:
65. 882mb 13-6-3
66. Webberweather53 8-4-2
67. Jlpr2 10-3-1
68. Severstorm 9-4-2
69. Wxlogic 8-7-1


I'll post my forecast in May (if your deadline is indeed June 1st)
Quoting Gearsts:
So much dust!



Looks like a little area too keep a eye on this N of pr if it was not for the wind shear it could have a small Ch of be coming. Something
Quoting Tazmanian:



Looks like a little area too keep a eye on this N of pr if it was not for the wind shear it could have a small Ch of be coming. Something
I agree with you Taz. In August, this would be a concern if the setup was right.
Damage here in Warren County is worse than I expected. Our Veterinarian lost the entire roof with serious damage inside. Farm and tractor outlet lost the entire building. Damage reports are still coming in, but my guess is we had one hell of a downburst..judging by the damage..I could be in error on this , its a wait and see..
Quoting 101. Bluestorm5:



I'll post my forecast in May (if your deadline is indeed June 1st)

thats the way you want it
Rough year so far for you and folks in your area.

Quoting 104. hydrus:

Damage here in Warren County is worse than I expected. Our Veterinarian lost the entire roof with serious damage inside. Farm and tractor outlet lost the entire building. Damage reports are still coming in, but my guess is we had one hell of a downburst..judging by the damage..I could be in error on this , its a wait and see..
Only 26 days until blob season begins.


(Practice run only)

Quoting 106. pablosyn:




Starting to surface, will be interesting to see what it looks like come June 1st.
Thanks for the blog Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson. Happy Easter to all!! Have a safe one!
112. OCF
Quoting nwobilderburg:

fonder memories for California
(although the southern sierras getting 100+ inches of snow in a week might not be fond memories for people who lived there)


I never did put up the Christmas lights that year. Kept waiting for a dry day to do it; eventually gave up.

I see that there are winter storm advisories for the Northern Sierra for tomorrow, for 8-12 inches of snow, and that there's actually supposed a rainy frontal passage in Southern California on Tuesday. Piddly little stuff compared to the problems we have, but we'll take anything we can get.
Maysak:




Haishen:




Both been destroyed by wind shear around 20 knots.


Quoting 98. washingtonian115:

Screw the MDR.I'm more worried about that gulf.
Da gulf can be treacherous during the slowest years, and a nightmare during active seasons..Even off season can be dangerous
115. MahFL
Quoting 114. hydrus:

..Even off season can be dangerous


The last storm to hit the US off season was in 1976...
1976 %u2013 May 21 %u2013 25. Subtropical Storm 1 crosses northern Florida, southern Georgia from Gulf of Mexico to Atlantic at tropical storm strength.

That's 39 years ago....and I would not call most TS dangerous.
looks like the developers of the world biggest telescope on maua kea did not consult the royal hawaiians before starting the construction. hopefully that is not a sign it may find something bad. man eating aliens. i was lucky enough to hike up the other great volcano Mauna Loa. i have a photo in the photo section of me standing next to an hawaiian snowman 1980
Quoting 115. MahFL:



The last storm to hit the US off season was in 1976...
1976 %u2013 May 21 %u2013 25. Subtropical Storm 1 crosses northern Florida, southern Georgia from Gulf of Mexico to Atlantic at tropical storm strength.

That's 39 years ago....and I would not call most TS dangerous.


didnt Beryl hit the u.s. less than 3 years ago off-season
Quoting 117. nwobilderburg:



didnt Beryl hit the u.s. less than 3 years ago off-season


Yep.

When Beryl made landfall in Jacksonville Beach, Florida with 65 mph (105 km/h), it became the strongest tropical cyclone at landfall in the U.S. outside of the official Atlantic hurricane season
Source
Quoting 120. Astrometeor:



Yep.

When Beryl made landfall in Jacksonville Beach, Florida with 65 mph (105 km/h), it became the strongest tropical cyclone at landfall in the U.S. outside of the official Atlantic hurricane season
Source


again with the italics...
*chuckles*
Quoting 121. MaxWeather:



again with the italics...
*chuckles*


This time it was on purpose. :/
Quoting 92. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The state of the Atlantic is as poor as I've ever seen it. Main Development Region SST anomalies have fallen well below average, whereas waters in the subtropical Atlantic are running above average. Different methods will yield different results, but March 2015's AMO value according to CSU's methodology was "in dead heat with 1990 for lowest value since 1950."




Well it can't be as bad as last year in terms of dry air right? I mean didn't last year break the records for lowest humidity in the MDR for June/July (unless we break those records again this year lol)? An El nino this year may be what the Atlantic needs to get itself back in action for next year.
Quoting 122. Astrometeor:



This time it was on purpose. :/

like if you knew someone was going to say something
From the upcoming WMO Region IV Hurricane Conference....

Given the relevance of the name Isis in the world current affairs, RSMC Miami recommends the replacement of the name Isis from the 2016 Eastern North Pacific list by Ilene, Iola or Ivette.


A U.S. NWS team has been established to work through technical and dissemination issues associated with the implementation of tropical cyclone watches / warnings and advisories before formation. Recommendations will be adjudicated and discussed at the 2015 USA NOAA Hurricane Meeting in preparation for a potential 2016 implementation. With that in mind, there will be a requirement to identify those disturbances. The Greek alphabet is currently reserved to name cyclones in active years like 2005. However, the designation is rarely used, and RSMC Miami proposes to use the Greek alphabet to identify these disturbances described above. In place of the Greek alphabet, a supplemental list of regular names would be used when the standard list is exhausted.


RSMC Proposed Action Items
California Drought Tests History of Endless Growth

LOS ANGELES — For more than a century, California has been the state where people flocked for a better life — 164,000 square miles of mountains, farmland and coastline, shimmering with ambition and dreams, money and beauty. It was the cutting-edge symbol of possibility: Hollywood, Silicon Valley, aerospace, agriculture and vineyards.

But now a punishing drought — and the unprecedented measures the state announced last week to compel people to reduce water consumption — is forcing a reconsideration of whether the aspiration of untrammeled growth that has for so long been this state’s driving engine has run against the limits of nature.


Link
127. vis0

Quoting 108. Grothar:

Only 26 days until blob season begins.


(Practice run only)


Tho Gro ya never know, so keep an i** open beginning next week (in 7+ days).

**(as in the retired inv92 the Dr, jested 'bout  :- P)
Quoting 115. MahFL:



The last storm to hit the US off season was in 1976...
1976 %u2013 May 21 %u2013 25. Subtropical Storm 1 crosses northern Florida, southern Georgia from Gulf of Mexico to Atlantic at tropical storm strength.

That's 39 years ago....and I would not call most TS dangerous.
I was referring to baroclinic low pressure areas that can deepen quickly during the winter months..Whence the off season comment.
129. vis0

Quoting 112. OCF:



I never did put up the Christmas lights that year. Kept waiting for a dry day to do it; eventually gave up.

I see that there are winter storm advisories for the Northern Sierra for tomorrow, for 8-12 inches of snow, and that there's actually supposed a rainy frontal passage in Southern California on Tuesday. Piddly little stuff compared to the problems we have, but we'll take anything we can get.
Actually if the west coast could get 4 to 6 weeks of several large cold LOWs coming from Aleutian its the best thing before any AtmosRiver.  In having  several pidley LOWs, being they are cold stacked that would bring some snow pack & moisten the ground so any "harder" rains ~5 to 7 months later don't run off but add to the reservoirs and underground waters.
Quoting 127. vis0:


Tho Gro ya never know, so keep an i** open beginning next week (in 7+ days).

**(as in the retired inv92 the Dr, jested 'bout  :- P)



that was a APR 1st fool day joke they did not retired 92L
Dude, it's an Easter miracle, no longer a Typhoon but just a tropical storm. Looks like Maysak died on the way to Luzon...
Quoting 92. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The state of the Atlantic is as poor as I've ever seen it. Main Development Region SST anomalies have fallen well below average, whereas waters in the subtropical Atlantic are running above average. Different methods will yield different results, but March 2015's AMO value according to CSU's methodology was "in dead heat with 1990 for lowest value since 1950."




The Kaplan SSTv2 basin-wide SST being used by NOAA ESRL's page...
Link
w/ utilization of an older 1951-1980 climatology into the "short" 1948-present monthly AMO data may be causing the AMO to currently be reported too high (positive), thus it's may not be positive as currently advertised thru Feb. ( I personally think it wouldn't be a bad idea for NOAA to use a 50-60 year moving base period if they're going to use basin wide SSTs alone to calculate the AMO to account for the general warming of the overall climate since the mid 20th century (analogous to ONI although a longer average will be needed to account for multiple AMO phase cycles, as opposed to satisfying the CLT's approx. for normality hence the 30-40yr climo is often standard)... CSU's integration of SLP along w/ SSTs to calculate the AMO is certainly a better indicator/proxy of the overall AMO state than either SLP or SSTs alone.

We can take the ERSST dataset for example to visually show what effect the older base period has on SST anomalies...

Mar Atlantic SST anoms.

1951-1980 climo (used by Kaplan SSTv2 to report monthly AMO values)


Newer 1981-2010 climo. Definitely quite a bit colder in the deep tropics...


Here's what high-resolution OISSTv2 (also used for weekly ENSO updates) is showing for Feb & Mar w/ 1971-2000 climo. (This climatological selection doesn't make any sense to me given some of it actually lies outside the observed record of this dataset (Sep 1981-present), however, it has more relevance in this case than 1951-1980...) The AMO has definitely become increasingly negative over the past month or so...

Feb



Mar
Quoting 123. Envoirment:



Well it can't be as bad as last year in terms of dry air right? I mean didn't last year break the records for lowest humidity in the MDR for June/July (unless we break those records again this year lol)? An El nino this year may be what the Atlantic needs to get itself back in action for next year.


As shown by the +ENSO events of 1968-70, or 1898-1901, even a formidable multi-year El Nino does not guarantee the Atlantic will re-emerge back into its positive state following its termination... There are a smorgasbord of other necessary conditions/phenomena on a wide array of temporal scales that drive & feedback onto the AMO, ENSO is just one (yet major) piece of the puzzle...
Quoting 133. Webberweather53:



As shown by the +ENSO events of 1968-70, or 1898-1901, even a formidable multi-year El Nino does not guarantee the Atlantic will re-emerge back into its positive state following its termination... There are a smorgasbord of other necessary conditions/phenomena on a wide array of temporal scales that drive & feedback onto the AMO, ENSO is just one (yet major) piece of the puzzle...
Food and this blog will never break lines..:)
Quoting 115. MahFL:



The last storm to hit the US off season was in 1976...
1976 %u2013 May 21 %u2013 25. Subtropical Storm 1 crosses northern Florida, southern Georgia from Gulf of Mexico to Atlantic at tropical storm strength.

That's 39 years ago....and I would not call most TS dangerous.
T.S. can be damaging and deadly.
Quoting 135. hydrus:

T.S. can be damaging and deadly.


He said most, it's not like he's saying all of them aren't dangerous. No one will ever forget TS Allison.
Quoting 136. Astrometeor:



He said most, it's not like he's saying all of them aren't dangerous. No one will ever forget TS Allison.
Both were bad..89 and 01...sry..
Allison was really bad. I measured 4 inches an hour rain rate for a few hours at one point. Came oh so close to getting the house flooded. Sold that house and moved to one of the highest parts in Harris county but still realize the best would be to have the house about 5 or 6 feet off the ground.
Quoting 123. Envoirment:



Well it can't be as bad as last year in terms of dry air right? I mean didn't last year break the records for lowest humidity in the MDR for June/July (unless we break those records again this year lol)? An El nino this year may be what the Atlantic needs to get itself back in action for next year.
Probably worst.
Quoting 135. hydrus:

T.S. can be damaging and deadly.


What about Beryl 2012?
Quoting 114. hydrus:

Da gulf can be treacherous during the slowest years, and a nightmare during active seasons..Even off season can be dangerous


Not lately. But it will have to get active again at some point, right?

About Beryl, I didn't see the post immediately below mine.
Happy Easter, folks, and a good night. - Although it's still a bit chilly in Germany in the aftermath of windstorm Niklas with a trough of cold air from the north, nature cannot withold flourishing life - here a pic from the banks of Rhine River yesterday:

Eastern US looking very wet. FL starts getting in on the action tomorrow thru God knows when which is great as it has been Dry for 34 days now.

This rain will eventually back SW overnight into E C FL.


Michael Ventrice@MJVentrice · 11 hrs11 hours ago

The entire West Pacific Warm Pool is shifting eastward, indicating an evolving El Nino to emerge later this Spring.
Wednesday continues to look interesting to me. I'm not sold on a big outbreak of tornadoes thanks to concerns about forcing/capping, but the parameters the GFS is indicating across central Kansas down into central Oklahoma -- 45-50kt 500mb winds, 35-40kt 850mb winds, dewpoints in the mid-60s, 3000-3500j/kg CAPE, surface LCL heights <1000m, and lifted indices at or below -10C -- would definitely favor the potential for at least a few supercells capable of producing tornadoes along the dryline. I wouldn't be surprised to see our first Moderate risk then.

As always, things are subject to change.

Holy Smokes!!! This higher than any forecast put out by the CFSv2 since 1997. Good lord!



Hmm...
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 11h11 hours ago
@MarkWal15 There was an El Nino last year, regardless of what CPC's ONI stated. IMO, ONI failed.
There ended up alot of nice pictures of the blood moon eclipse in WunderPhotos..


Uploaded by: Ymirvanman
Saturday April 4, 2015
Milo, Canada
Caption: Not many were able to catch the 2015 Lunar Eclipse in Alberta weather was sketchy at best. Using the program Clear Skies I decided to drive South then East from Calgary chasing clear skies. Well I ended up East of Milo Alberta.
Quoting 148. Gearsts:

Hmm...
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 11h11 hours ago
@MarkWal15 There was an El Nino last year, regardless of what CPC's ONI stated. IMO, ONI failed.

Sort of surprised by this. Don't really agree with it.


Hail havoc continues. India got nailed again. Three people died from wall collapse, including a child. Ten cattle died & 150 people were injured. It's also reported that three farmers have committed suicide since due to extreme crop loss.

Massive hail storm in Vrindavan, India April 3, 2015

Published on Apr 3, 2015
Hail storm with golf ball to baseball size hail causes chaos for birds, monkeys, cows, cars and people. Extensive damage to roofs, cars, windows, windshields, etc. as hail driven sideways by gusty winds; traveling at high speeds for more than five minutes. It wasn't until after walking around we realized how much damage was done by this storm. What was at first exciting turned out to be very destructive and distressing for so many.
April is doing it's thing.
NWS in Melbourne is only calling between 20 to 40% of rain tomorrow through the up coming work week, think this might change?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Eastern US looking very wet. FL starts getting in on the action tomorrow thru God knows when which is great as it has been Dry for 34 days now.

Quoting Skyepony:

Sort of surprised by this. Don't really agree with it.
Venrice had been advising his clients, who are futures traders in agriculture and energy markets, that an El Nino was on the way since mid-2013. His clients invested accordingly. As one example, palm oil should become more scarce in an El Nino due to drought in places like Indonesia and Malaysia. The same issues affect coffee, cocoa, and sugar. Many of his clients invested accordingly, and some lost their shirts. It shouldn't be surprising that he's trying to cover his tracks now by saying there really was an El Nino.
Being in the severe threat thursday, obviously i'm posting about the possible severe weather outbreak wednesday and thursday.

Link
Quoting barbamz:
Happy Easter, folks, and a good night. - Although it's still a bit chilly in Germany in the aftermath of windstorm Niklas with a trough of cold air from the north, nature cannot withold flourishing life - here a pic from the banks of Rhine River yesterday:

Very pretty. This is my favorite time of year, and it's especially beautiful down here in the South. We are having our annual Pilgrimage next weekend, which combines a tour of some of our historic homes with a sort of street fair. Everything is in bloom and the town looks great. This is a picture of a house over one block from me with their fabulous display of azaleas. My azaleas don't look that good...yet. It has been very dry this spring and we're hoping for rain, but not heavy rain this week. A heavy rain or, worse yet, a hailstorm, can completely destroy all those beautiful blooms everyone comes to see. It can rain all it wants after next Sunday though.

Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
NWS in Melbourne is only calling between 20 to 40% of rain tomorrow through the up coming work week, think this might change?
There's a weak front that will stall over the area tomorrow and serve as the focus for some afternoon seabreeze type showers. The same thing should happen Monday although with less coverage. The rest of the week looks warm and relatively humid with a slight chance of some more seabreeze showers. It's always possible to get some brief periods of heavy rain if those showers should happen to train over any one area but there's no evidence of any widespread rain for the next five days.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wednesday continues to look interesting to me. I'm not sold on a big outbreak of tornadoes thanks to concerns about forcing/capping, but the parameters the GFS is indicating across central Kansas down into central Oklahoma -- 45-50kt 500mb winds, 35-40kt 850mb winds, dewpoints in the mid-60s, 3000-3500j/kg CAPE, surface LCL heights <1000m, and lifted indices at or below -10C -- would definitely favor the potential for at least a few supercells capable of producing tornadoes along the dryline. I wouldn't be surprised to see our first Moderate risk then.

As always, things are subject to change.

I'm guessing that, if we do get an outbreak, it will be centered a little more north and east, over eastern Kansas and into Missouri, somewhat similar to what we saw this week. It all depends on where that Pacific trough ends up and how strong it is. Given that we'll be close to mid-April, there has to be at least one Moderate day pretty soon.
Quoting 146. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wednesday continues to look interesting to me. I'm not sold on a big outbreak of tornadoes thanks to concerns about forcing/capping, but the parameters the GFS is indicating across central Kansas down into central Oklahoma -- 45-50kt 500mb winds, 35-40kt 850mb winds, dewpoints in the mid-60s, 3000-3500j/kg CAPE, surface LCL heights <1000m, and lifted indices at or below -10C -- would definitely favor the potential for at least a few supercells capable of producing tornadoes along the dryline. I wouldn't be surprised to see our first Moderate risk then.

As always, things are subject to change.




Quoting 159. sar2401:

I'm guessing that, if we do get an outbreak, it will be centered a little more north and east, over eastern Kansas and into Missouri, somewhat similar to what we saw this week. It all depends on where that Pacific trough ends up and how strong it is. Given that we'll be close to mid-April, there has to be at least one Moderate day pretty soon.



*Cough*...

:)

Quoting 153. sar2401:

Venrice had been advising his clients, who are futures traders in agriculture and energy markets, that an El Nino was on the way since mid-2013. His clients invested accordingly. As one example, palm oil should become more scarce in an El Nino due to drought in places like Indonesia and Malaysia. The same issues affect coffee, cocoa, and sugar. Many of his clients invested accordingly, and some lost their shirts. It shouldn't be surprising that he's trying to cover his tracks now by saying there really was an El Nino.


Ok...
Even the ONI index he's criticizing is one tri-monthly away from this event receiving official designation as an El Nino, & NOAA actually already announced an El Nino was in place about a month or so ago, it's the latest start to a 1st yr EN since 1939-40 (coincidentally this also marked the beginning of the most recent period where the PDO was consistently in record territory), but this is clearly an El Nino. No one was confidently forecasting an El Nino in 2013, you may be referencing the last legitimate/failed attempt in late 2012...
Quoting 160. Webberweather53:






*Cough*...

:)




How did I miss that? I seriously do not remember a moderate risk that day. Or is this one of those horrible, late 4/1 jokes?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #74
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (T1504)
12:00 PM JST April 5 2015
====================================
Overland Luzon Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Maysak (992 hPa) located at 16.3N 122.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
=================
24 HRS: 19.3N 117.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) northern South China Sea
Quoting 161. Webberweather53:



Ok...
Even the ONI index he's criticizing is one tri-monthly away from this event receiving official designation as an El Nino, & NOAA actually already announced an El Nino was in place about a month or so ago, it's the latest start to a 1st yr EN since 1939-40 (coincidentally this also marked the beginning of the most recent period where the PDO was consistently in record territory), but this is clearly an El Nino. No one was confidently forecasting an El Nino in 2013, you may be referencing the last legitimate/failed attempt in late 2012...


Well, there was ONE blogger here (not naming any names) who was forecasting an El Nino in October of 2013, funny you should mention that as I was scrolling through various tidbits I've saved over the past couple years...and not just any normal El Nino, one that would "rival 1997 and 1998 and be here by the time the 2014 Hurricane Season begins".
Quoting 164. Astrometeor:


Well, there was ONE blogger here (not naming any names) who was forecasting an El Nino in October of 2013, funny you should mention that as I was scrolling through various tidbits I've saved over the past couple years...and not just any normal El Nino, one that would "rival 1997 and 1998 and be here by the time the 2014 Hurricane Season begins".


Many Scientist, Eric Blake, and many other thought the samething and your point is? Fact is it was a bust last year but this year this El-Nino will not bust infact I'm impressed with the intensity being forecasted by many models for this Summer. Funny how you and many others used page after page of attacks to promote your No El-Nino in 2015 from October thru January only to be dealt with a near record kelvin Wave rivaling the one back a year ago difference is we are already in a Base El-Nino state. Fact is you have nothing to go on but old news.

As it stands we have plus 6C anomalies now showing up in a small area which will update next week on the CPC site.

Quoting 160. Webberweather53:






*Cough*...

:)



Oh geez, where was I? Lol. I tracked the storms, but I don't remember there being a Moderate risk.

Quoting 162. Astrometeor:



How did I miss that? I seriously do not remember a moderate risk that day. Or is this one of those horrible, late 4/1 jokes?

Glad I'm not the only one!
Quoting 162. Astrometeor:



How did I miss that? I seriously do not remember a moderate risk that day. Or is this one of those horrible, late 4/1 jokes?


Seriously, me either.
If this keeps up a 1914 Hurricane season could be in the cards. This looks very bad for the 2015 Hurricane Season.Link

Quoting 166. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oh geez, where was I? Lol. I tracked the storms, but I don't remember there being a Moderate risk.


Glad I'm not the only one!


It's no joke, this was the day of course where we saw another devastating tornado hit Moore, OK (for the record, I think they should name the town More Tornadoes, Oklahoma... lol) I definitely try to consult the SPC convective outlook archive every once in a while...


Here's their overlay of the severe wx reports on top of their moderate outlook issuance...


Yeah, this was a last-minute call on moderate risk, but it certainly qualifies as one (hence, why do you think I mentioned in my post this morning summarizing the SPC's recognition of the upcoming outbreak in their 5-6 outlooks, the potential of our first high risk (esp for Thu) during the upcoming week?) I already knew we had our first moderate issued on the 25th, but I just figured the majority of you were aware of this...
Quoting 155. hydrus:


Lol
Quoting 168. StormTrackerScott:

If this keeps up a 1914 Hurricane season could be in the cards. This looks very bad for the 2015 Hurricane Season.Link




i may need too lower my # more from 5 too 2
Quoting 171. Tazmanian:


i may need too lower my # more from 5 too 2



I'm sticking with my 9 to 10 right now but wow it can't get much worse for this year's hurricane season. It just looks hostile any way you look at it.
Guys please... Just because an dumb SST graphic says it's cold then you gonna shut close the book for this season?
I don't want to see anyone 2 days prior to deadline asking me to raise-lower the prediction because other people say otherwise about the SST at the last minute.

SST is not the only thing working for cyclone genesis as you know.

My point is with this for you to gain confidence in yourself.
Don't be driven by the noise.
Quoting 173. MaxWeather:

Guys please... Just because an dumb SST graphic says it's cold then you gonna shut close the book for this season?
I don't want to see anyone 2 days prior to deadline asking me to raise-lower the prediction because other people say otherwise about the SST at the last minute.

SST is not the only thing working for cyclone genesis as you know.

My point is with this for you to gain confidence in yourself.
Don't be driven by the noise.


It is NOT a dumb graphic, it has no capabilities of being dumb, or even of knowing the connotations of being "dumb".

Quoting 169. Webberweather53:



but I just figured the majority of you were aware of this...


Don't know about Cody or Kyle...but I've had a rough week.
Quoting 174. Astrometeor:



It is NOT a dumb graphic, it has no capabilities of being dumb, or even of knowing the connotations of being "dumb".



Don't know about Cody or Kyle...but I've had a rough week.


How's college?
Quoting 164. Astrometeor:



Well, there was ONE blogger here (not naming any names) who was forecasting an El Nino in October of 2013, funny you should mention that as I was scrolling through various tidbits I've saved over the past couple years...and not just any normal El Nino, one that would "rival 1997 and 1998 and be here by the time the 2014 Hurricane Season begins".


You're likely talking about StormTrackerScott...
I'll admit, I was leaning towards Scott's idea for a while being concerned about the potential for a strong El Nino initially given this oceanic Kelvin Wave was stronger than the 1997 precursor... After subsequently reading research from McPhaden et al (2006), I was finally able to place some physical standing on the integral of Equatorial Pacific WWV (Warm Water Volume) & higher freq MJO forcing indicators, where they note these indicators account for only ~50-60% of peak NINO 3.4 SST variance, & once I figured out the importance of the eastern hemisphere interference during the middle-late stages of the spring when it just began to manifest itself (including IO & Australian interference sources, the warmth around Australia atm doesn't support a "very strong" EN as scott is (still) touting, usually need waters to be frigid in this area of the world to crank out a huge El Nino, higher SSTs will lower the overlying surface pressures & will destructively interfere with any coincident EN) the southern hemisphere -PDO, the TPQDO, found some historical backing for an oncoming multi-yr EN, I quickly changed my tune & began to support a weaker NINO. +ly, with the failure of this winter's SSWE to break down the gargantuan "barotropic tornado" coupled w/ its stratospheric counterpart & sitting over Greenland-northeastern N America, it was the final nail in the coffin for me that we were in a multi-year El Nino and that another one was on its way for this upcoming year. As I've mentioned perviously here, if the eastern hemisphere didn't interfere last summer & the southern hemisphere's multidecadal state was more conducive, this would have likely been a very strong, one year El Nino, instead we're seeing a series of weaker events strung out over 2-3 years.
Quoting 175. GeorgiaStormz:



How's college?


Alright. My classes are going fine, although had way too much calculus on the last test...not excited about that score. Everyone is freaking out about (what should) be a relatively straight-forward Chemistry class we are all in as freshman (and required for the met major). I think I have the highest grade out of my friend group.

Next week is registration week for fall classes, need to talk to my advisor to get my registration number...heh.

There is hardly anyone here this weekend, what with Easter and Passover, so that's why I'm online right now instead of playing pool with my friends...because all my friends aren't here.
Quoting 177. Astrometeor:



There is hardly anyone here this weekend, what with Easter and Passover, so that's why I'm online right now instead of playing pool with my friends...because all my friends aren't here.

Quoting 177. Astrometeor:



Alright. My classes are going fine, although had way too much calculus on the last test...not excited about that score. Everyone is freaking out about (what should) be a relatively straight-forward Chemistry class we are all in as freshman (and required for the met major). I think I have the highest grade out of my friend group.

Next week is registration week for fall classes, need to talk to my advisor to get my registration number...heh.

There is hardly anyone here this weekend, what with Easter and Passover, so that's why I'm online right now instead of playing pool with my friends...because all my friends aren't here.


Awesome. Chem is fun.
I can't wait to begin the college experience.
Quoting 174. Astrometeor:



It is NOT a dumb graphic, it has no capabilities of being dumb, or even of knowing the connotations of being "dumb".



Don't know about Cody or Kyle...but I've had a rough week.

The people who put it together then...
Jeez
Quoting 180. MaxWeather:


The people who put it together then...
Jeez


Well, that's just downright mean. What if I don't like a certain aspect of YOUR graphics? Can I call you dumb?

Quoting 179. GeorgiaStormz:



Awesome. Chem is fun.
I can't wait to begin the college experience.


The only scary thing is that I am probably one of (if not the most) knowledgeable freshman on meteorology on this campus. It's a public school, yes, but still! Sheesh. We have a thunderstorm and there are five kids screaming that there is rotation when the storm was struggling to produce an actual downpour and lightning, let alone rotation. (For the record there was no rotation on the storm.) And then when you take into account that I'm not even close to knowledgeable compared to some young folk here...
Quoting Webberweather53:





*Cough*...

:)

I remember that one, but I mean a moderate risk day as in forecasting moderate risk at least a day in advance. The one on 3/25 was issued during the day of what was already an ongoing event.
Quoting 136. Astrometeor:



He said most, it's not like he's saying all of them aren't dangerous. No one will ever forget TS Allison.


TS Debby although not even in the same league of destruction as Allison packed quite a punch in the Tampa Bay area. There were several tornadoes, numerous severe wind down burst events from severe cells in it's squall line type band, one cell destroyed the shed and the fence at my house back home in the Tampa Bay area and knocked over some trees as well as the power. much of the area had 10-20 inches of rain in one day, we had 11 inches of rain in 8 hours at my house there, completely flooding the neighborhood. I encountered a roof on a road on the way to the beach and downed power lines. Also Tampa had a substantial storm surge, and we had hours of tropical storm force gusts in the 40-60 mph range.
What made that even so impressive was that the original forecast was 1-3 inches of rain and gusts peaking in the 30-35 mph range.

While volunteering at the NWS at Ruskin, they said it was very stressful because tropical storm force winds and training bands of severe cells were impacting the Tampa Bay area and the NHC got a bit caught off guard because their original path had it heading west into Texas but it shifted east into Florida, and just several hours later, the impacts began to impact the Tampa Bay area.

They said because of the lack of a tropical storm warning they were awkwardly forced to issue this large continuous severe thunderstorm warning box until the NHC finally issued the tropical storm warning because almost every cell in a training band stuck over the Tampa Bay area had a wind velocity rating warranting severe thunderstorm warnings, which in a normal situation would be covered by the tropical storm warning.
They said that storm reports already showed that tropical storm conditions and damage had been happening for hours before there was finally a tropical storm warning and tornado watch happened.

That event really made me respect tropical storms a bit more, we got pretty battered up between the flooding and scattered wind and tornado damage around the area. It was a pretty intense event. I spent probably more time driving around storm chasing the event than I should have, lol.
Quoting Webberweather53:


Ok...
Even the ONI index he's criticizing is one tri-monthly away from this event receiving official designation as an El Nino, & NOAA actually already announced an El Nino was in place about a month or so ago, it's the latest start to a 1st yr EN since 1939-40 (coincidentally this also marked the beginning of the most recent period where the PDO was consistently in record territory), but this is clearly an El Nino. No one was confidently forecasting an El Nino in 2013, you may be referencing the last legitimate/failed attempt in late 2012...
No, he was forecasting a big time 2014 El Nino in 2013. He was even hyping it during a few of his guest blogs here. I was then, and am still, a little miffed about that. WSI, who Ventrice works for, is owned by TWC, as is WU, so I understand the corporate tie-in, but anyone who's engaged in the business of giving information to investors, particularly futures traders, should have to give a disclosure statement when they write a piece. There are actually SEC rules about this.
Quoting 181. Astrometeor:



Well, that's just downright mean. What if I don't like a certain aspect of YOUR graphics? Can I call you dumb?



The only scary thing is that I am probably one of (if not the most) knowledgeable freshman on meteorology on this campus. It's a public school, yes, but still! Sheesh. We have a thunderstorm and there are five kids screaming that there is rotation when the storm was struggling to produce an actual downpour and lightning, let alone rotation. (For the record there was no rotation on the storm.) And then when you take into account that I'm not even close to compared to some young folk here...

Yes you can Astro... Except that there is no aspect you dislike about them ;p
But you deviated from my original point anyway
Quoting 181. Astrometeor:



Well, that's just downright mean. What if I don't like a certain aspect of YOUR graphics? Can I call you dumb?



The only scary thing is that I am probably one of (if not the most) knowledgeable freshman on meteorology on this campus. It's a public school, yes, but still! Sheesh. We have a thunderstorm and there are five kids screaming that there is rotation when the storm was struggling to produce an actual downpour and lightning, let alone rotation. (For the record there was no rotation on the storm.) And then when you take into account that I'm not even close to knowledgeable compared to some young folk here...


It doesn't mean they necessarily didn't know better. When I was younger I would sometimes make things into what they weren't out of simply pure excitement even when I knew better. It was just a young excitement motivation in me, and it would over power my awareness of reality of what was really happening, lol.
Quoting 186. Jedkins01:



It doesn't mean they necessarily didn't know better. When I was younger I would sometimes make things into what they weren't out of simply pure excitement even when I knew better. It was just a young excitement motivation in me, and it would over power my awareness of reality of what was really happening, lol.


I know, the first time I met a Kansas thunderstorm in daylight I was jumping up and down in my car seat screaming "Microburst! Microburst!" I think I was 16 when that happened...heh.

Most of the kids are from PA and Jersey, so they have tropical storm experience (Irene and Sandy), but not much experience with tornadoes. So its understandable, but still. Outside of being in the moment, I am one of the few that actively pays attention to world weather news. And I know multiple kids in my major who don't think AGW/CC is a thing.
Quoting 181. Astrometeor:



Well, that's just downright mean. What if I don't like a certain aspect of YOUR graphics? Can I call you dumb?



The only scary thing is that I am probably one of (if not the most) knowledgeable freshman on meteorology on this campus. It's a public school, yes, but still! Sheesh. We have a thunderstorm and there are five kids screaming that there is rotation when the storm was struggling to produce an actual downpour and lightning, let alone rotation. (For the record there was no rotation on the storm.) And then when you take into account that I'm not even close to knowledgeable compared to some young folk here...



Haha that's interesting. You go to Millersville right? I think I know one other meteorology student there. I need to decide on a college by May 1st, and the decision process isn't as easy as I'd have thought.
Quoting 188. GeorgiaStormz:




Haha that's interesting. You go to Millersville right? I think I know one other meteorology student there. I need to decide on a college by May 1st, and the decision process isn't as easy as I'd have thought.


Yeah, I do. There's a sophomore here who happens to be a fellow blogger on WU (Stormchaser2007). I don't know if that's the person you mean.

For me it was pretty easy to choose. UNC-A was a bit weird (sorry Kyle), Oklahoma did a very good job with their offer (massive scholarship), but alas they are too big for me, Western Kentucky is too close to home, and Penn State is too big and did nothing for me in turns of scholarships (which surprised me). Those were the schools I applied to. And got accepted to. I didn't apply anywhere else.
Quoting 189. Astrometeor:



Yeah, I do. There's a sophomore here who happens to be a fellow blogger on WU (Stormchaser2007). I don't know if that's the person you mean.

For me it was pretty easy to choose. UNC-A was a bit weird (sorry Kyle), Oklahoma did a very good job with their offer (massive scholarship), but alas they are too big for me, Western Kentucky is too close to home, and Penn State is too big and did nothing for me in turns of scholarships (which surprised me). Those were the schools I applied to. And got accepted to. I didn't apply anywhere else.


No that's not the one.
But yeah OU gave me a massive scholarship for National Merit, so I can go there really easily, but I like MIT so idk. We'll see, under a month to decide. Only other option is Georgia Tech which I'm probably not going to
Quoting 190. GeorgiaStormz:



No that's not the one.
But yeah OU gave me a massive scholarship for National Merit, so I can go there really easily, but I like MIT so idk. We'll see, under a month to decide. Only other option is Georgia TEch which I'm probably not going to


I have two friends at MIT, and although they are really, really busy, I'm sure they're having fun.

Time for me to go to bed, night all. Happy Easter.
Quoting 191. Astrometeor:



I have two friends at MIT, and although they are really, really busy, I'm sure they're having fun.

Time for me to go to bed, night all. Happy Easter.


Yeah I know maybe current MIT 20-30 students really well and two former students, and I'd have maybe 30 friends that I know well in the incoming class. The current students all say MIT is great so that's a plus.

Happy Easter to you too.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 14-20142015
10:00 AM RET April 5 2015
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 14R (998 hPa) located at 11.8S 87.2E has 10 minute sustained wind of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 5 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
Extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 12.7S 87.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 13.9S 88.8E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 17.6S 91.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 21.7S 95.8E - 30 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
The system has intensified over the last 12 hours. The low level circulation is better defined and recently the deep convection wraps more than 0.5. Ft is however retained at 2.0+ based on an average of the last 3 hours and constraint. The intensity of this advisory is based on ASCAT data that show near gale force winds close to the center and over a significant portions of the circulation.

The system is located north of a barometric col that lies south of 20.0S. This weakness within the subtropical ridge should maintain within the next few days as a new upper to mid-level trough arrives from the southwest. Between that feature and a building mid-level near equatorial ridge to the northeast, a general southeastwards track is expected for much of the forecast period. There is some good agreement amongst the numerical guidance on this scenario.

Improving environmental conditions(decreasing shear, excellent upper level divergence with dual outflow, one to the southeast and one to the northwest, sufficient ocean heat contain) are expected to occur today and should maintain through the next 24-36 hours. Tuesday, the favorable windows could be definitively closed (stronger northwesterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures).

Given the current forecast track, the system is expected to cross 90.0E Monday night.
6C anomalies now showing up.

195. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Colorado State Edu, though these colours not a Colorado product.
D&T:: On anigif
SUBJECT:: Observing wx be it active or possibilities of active weather entire MidWest & SE of USofA.
image host

Try to make your Easter as safe as possible and for official watches/warnings listen to NOAA radio and emergency alerts
196. vis0
Quoting 176. Webberweather53:



You're likely talking about StormTrackerScott...
I'll admit, I was leaning towards Scott's idea for a while being concerned about the potential for a strong El Nino initially given this oceanic Kelvin Wave was stronger than the 1997 precursor... After subsequently reading research from McPhaden et al (2006), I was finally able to place some physical standing on the integral of Equatorial Pacific WWV (Warm Water Volume) & higher freq MJO forcing indicators, where they note these indicators account for only ~50-60% of peak NINO 3.4 SST variance, & once I figured out the importance of the eastern hemisphere interference during the middle-late stages of the spring when it just began to manifest itself (including IO & Australian interference sources, the warmth around Australia atm doesn't support a "very strong" EN as scott is (still) touting, usually need waters to be frigid in this area of the world to crank out a huge El Nino, higher SSTs will lower the overlying surface pressures & will destructively interfere with any coincident EN) the southern hemisphere -PDO, the TPQDO, found some historical backing for an oncoming multi-yr EN, I quickly changed my tune & began to support a weaker NINO. +ly, with the failure of this winter's SSWE to break down the gargantuan "barotropic tornado" coupled w/ its stratospheric counterpart & sitting over Greenland-northeastern N America, it was the final nail in the coffin for me that we were in a multi-year El Nino and that another one was on its way for this upcoming year. As I've mentioned perviously here, if the eastern hemisphere didn't interfere last summer & the southern hemisphere's multidecadal state was more conducive, this would have likely been a very strong, one year El Nino, instead we're seeing a series of weaker events strung out over 2-3 years.
Hit the nail on the spot but i think the series of El Niños will not be a stable linear progression of several El Niños but several flavours (Modoki, Moderate, El Niño estas Perdiido◄sp|en►El Niño is Lost aka Accentuate AtmosRivers ) in which for short periods MAX Niños pop up like an old fashion Trains smoke exhaust ; chug chug chug CHUG!!! chug chug chug CHUG!!! (a chug representing ~ every 49 days). And the Atlantic will not be responding to El Niño existing in the foreground nor background but if El Niño on MOST levels is ascending or descending). EXAMPLE:: if a Max Niño is descending the Atlantic will take that as a positive in generating (as WxU members STS states at times) that an active Niño can lead to more near land forming TS, not necessarily that many Hurricanes will pop up but that of the percentage of Invests that form several strong close to USofA /Land TS to Major Hurricanes will be on the menu.
Quoting 184. sar2401:

No, he was forecasting a big time 2014 El Nino in 2013. He was even hyping it during a few of his guest blogs here. I was then, and am still, a little miffed about that. WSI, who Ventrice works for, is owned by TWC, as is WU, so I understand the corporate tie-in, but anyone who's engaged in the business of giving information to investors, particularly futures traders, should have to give a disclosure statement when they write a piece. There are actually SEC rules about this.


He certainly isn't trying to somehow "cover his tracks" however as you erroneously claimed, there actually was an El Nino last winter, & the ONI he criticized is going to make it official (hence NOAA already went ahead & declared El Nino last month knowing this index was going to meet the 5 tri-monthly criteria.)

(Note this post is from Feb 21 2014, not "mid 2013" :) )
Link

"We are seeing increasing evidence of an upcoming change in the Pacific Ocean base state that favors the development of a moderate-to-strong El Niño event this Spring/Summer"

Yes, he forecasted a moderate-strong El Nino, I don't blame him at the time knowing this downwelling kelvin wave rivaled the precursor to 1997, but considering the reasons I mentioned to Astrometeor last night (in summary, some of which are still applicable now, (of course StormTrackerScott will probably (continue to) chose to ignore them..).

-Summer E Hem interference/warm water surrounding Australia feeding back to lower SLP that would interfere w/ EN evolution
-Southern Hemisphere Cold PDO
-the integral of Equatorial Pacific WWV (Warm Water Volume) & higher freq MJO forcing only accounts for ~50-60% of peak NINO 3.4 SST variance
-TPQDO
-Historical precedence for multi-year El Ninos
HAPPY EASTER, you Bozos !

Spare a moment today, to give Thanks.
Quoting 147. StormTrackerScott:

Holy Smokes!!! This higher than any forecast put out by the CFSv2 since 1997. Good lord!




Thanks, seems like the forecast for the area might pick up by next weekend, could use the rain.
Quoting sar2401:
There's a weak front that will stall over the area tomorrow and serve as the focus for some afternoon seabreeze type showers. The same thing should happen Monday although with less coverage. The rest of the week looks warm and relatively humid with a slight chance of some more seabreeze showers. It's always possible to get some brief periods of heavy rain if those showers should happen to train over any one area but there's no evidence of any widespread rain for the next five days.
Quoting 161. Webberweather53:



Ok...
Even the ONI index he's criticizing is one tri-monthly away from this event receiving official designation as an El Nino, & NOAA actually already announced an El Nino was in place about a month or so ago, it's the latest start to a 1st yr EN since 1939-40 (coincidentally this also marked the beginning of the most recent period where the PDO was consistently in record territory), but this is clearly an El Nino. No one was confidently forecasting an El Nino in 2013, you may be referencing the last legitimate/failed attempt in late 2012...
Yep..And the JMA called it a official El Nino late last year if my memory is still good.
Happy Easter and safe to all.
Good Morning!

It is April 5, 2015. Happy Easter!

The Atlantic hurricane season begins less than 2 months from today.

If the current El Nino trends continue, we still have to be ready. The years 1947, 1957, 1965, 1974, 1975, 1979, 1983, 1991, and 1992, were very slow years in the number of named Atlantic named storms. However, those years also featured major U.S. hurricane landfalls.

My EARLY predictions for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

7-9 Named Storms
5-6 Hurricanes
1-2 Major Hurricanes

Although SSTs in the ATLANTIC BASIN, are lower than some previous years, the Gulf of Mexico is still warm. If all of the atmospheric conditions were favorable, a Gulf Coast hurricane landfall could be possible. We also have to keep a watchful eye on the Atlantic Seaboard.

Let's hope that after dealing with the 2004-2005, and 2008 hyper-active hurricane seasons (with multiple U.S. landfalls), that coastal residents don't let their guard down.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
6C anomalies now showing up.



Yeah just like how it showed up earlier this year in fact it was early last month if I recall correctly

Either still nowhere as strong as this time last year

And if anything it just may dissipate like it did last year
Lol Scott still relying on CPC's CFS nino forecast and really taking in to heart the forecast that's being produced now

Nope sorry Scott don't buy it

The nino models are still in its crap period which doesn't end till end of May
Good morning, and Happy Easter!

Here's an excerpt from the SPC day 4-8 outlook. Wednesday and Thursday, especially Thursday, are both looking pretty interesting right now.

DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THIS FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO
SEVERE RISK FOR DAY 4 /WED 4-8/ ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN OK/ERN KS/MO.
ALL MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND
AT LEAST HINTS OF A SUBTLE/EMBEDDED WAVE CROSSING THE REGION NEAR
PEAK HEATING. ATTM...EXPECT RESULTING UVV TO BE SUFFICIENT ATOP THE
EWD-MIXING DRYLINE TO PERMIT CAP WEAKENING SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TOPPED BY STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING FLOW THAT VEERS
SUBSTANTIALLY AND INCREASES STEADILY WITH HEIGHT...SHEAR WILL FAVOR
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND ATTENDANT RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
STORM COVERAGE...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 15% PROBABILITY AREA ATTM --
DESPITE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP.

THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS -- BUT WITH GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AREA -- EXISTS DAY 5 /THU 4-9/.
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE KS/NEB/IA VICINITY AND ADVANCE
OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL FACILITATE
A BROAD ZONE OF STORM INITIATION...GIVEN THE MOIST/FAVORABLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED. WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AS COMPARED TO
DAY 4 GIVEN PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN MID-LEVEL JET STREAK INTO THE
CENTRAL STATES...SUPERCELL STORMS AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Holy Smokes!!! This higher than any forecast put out by the CFSv2 since 1997. Good lord!





Discrepancy discrepancy
First of all this isn't the highest CFS has forecasted since 1997
And as far as I can remember CFS showed it going up to 1.5/2.0 region last year

Anyway
(PDF corrected)


Or let's put it in the same way you did



Either way we won't truly know what it will look like untill the models are out of bullcrap mode
Quoting Webberweather53:


He certainly isn't trying to somehow "cover his tracks" however as you erroneously claimed, there actually was an El Nino last winter, & the ONI he criticized is going to make it official (hence NOAA already went ahead & declared El Nino last month knowing this index was going to meet the 5 tri-monthly criteria.)

(Note this post is from Feb 21 2014, not "mid 2013" :) )
Link

"We are seeing increasing evidence of an upcoming change in the Pacific Ocean base state that favors the development of a moderate-to-strong El Niño event this Spring/Summer"

Yes, he forecasted a moderate-strong El Nino, I don't blame him at the time knowing this downwelling kelvin wave rivaled the precursor to 1997, but considering the reasons I mentioned to Astrometeor last night (in summary, some of which are still applicable now, (of course StormTrackerScott will probably (continue to) chose to ignore them..).

-Summer E Hem interference/warm water surrounding Australia feeding back to lower SLP that would interfere w/ EN evolution
-Southern Hemisphere Cold PDO
-the integral of Equatorial Pacific WWV (Warm Water Volume) & higher freq MJO forcing only accounts for ~50-60% of peak NINO 3.4 SST variance
-TPQDO
-Historical precedence for multi-year El Ninos


I agree that a super nino is not feasible. But a bona fide moderate +ENSO event for 2015/16 seems IMO likely!

1. SST around Indonesia and the Philippines are below normal(the Warm Pool has shifted finally shifted eastward unlike last year).

2. SST of Eastern Australia are still above normal but slowly cooling(like in 2009).

3. The IOD looks more neutral and appears to be headed in a positive state(judging sub-surface waters).

4. The southern Pacific SSTA configuration looks atypically +PDOish(if we exclude the world ocean area).

5. Most of all, the 2009/10 El Nino had all the interference you mentioned(and more). Yet it still managed to almost become strong at it's peak.
The gulf stream is also warm and even in el nino years the east coast can be under attack.So I'm not listening to anyone on here talking as if its okay to let our guard down because this might be like a "1914 repeat".Again screw the MDR you all are looking at the wrong place this year to be worried about.Looks like a homegrown year.
Quoting 198. pottery:

HAPPY EASTER, you Bozos !

Spare a moment today, to give Thanks.
Thanks Pottery (there ya go!)
Quoting 208. wunderkidcayman:



Discrepancy discrepancy
First of all this isn't the highest CFS has forecasted since 1997
And as far as I can remember CFS showed it going up to 1.5/2.0 region last year

Anyway
(PDF corrected)


Or let's put it in the same way you did



Either way we won't truly know what it will look like untill the models are out of bullcrap mode


Why are you using the charts with conditions initialized between March 5th and March 14th while Scott posted the ones initialized March 25th through April 3rd? All this nonsense to attack Scott is just old. Give it a rest, ignore him, you of all bloggers should not be engaging in the same tactics used on you.
Also Scott looking at your first of second favourite (can't really tell with you) images from Levi

Ninõ 1+2 and Ninõ 3 has cooled
And can clearly been seen on 7 day change anomaly charts and the Ninõ time series

And I'm sure that's not what you want in strengthening El Niño infact quite the opposite if you are looking for your strong apocalyptic El Niño
Quoting 187. Astrometeor:



I know, the first time I met a Kansas thunderstorm in daylight I was jumping up and down in my car seat screaming "Microburst! Microburst!" I think I was 16 when that happened...heh.

Most of the kids are from PA and Jersey, so they have tropical storm experience (Irene and Sandy), but not much experience with tornadoes. So its understandable, but still. Outside of being in the moment, I am one of the few that actively pays attention to world weather news. And I know multiple kids in my major who don't think AGW/CC is a thing.


That's odd to me, while there are a few in the program here that seem like they just want to be tv stars and aren't really meteorology geeks, most people I know here in the program are all in a similar perspective as me, in fact it's pleasantly a humbling to know people that are much more knowledgeable and even more interested than me. Levi is one for example, it's pretty cool that we go to the same school and are in some of the same classes.
Interesting... while the SPC thinks there'll be a tornado outbreak, TWC's a little more conservative as their highest torcon is a 4.
217. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, joined & processed by vis0...can't ya tell have no beizer curve in my 1990s paint program so IR  to VIS is cut N TO S not a curve as it should be to represent sunlight bathing a sphere...not to mention the incorrect time (now corrected). (this form is best when one has full daylight , hope to post one later, posting this as a reminder to myself)
D&T::201504051615UTC

()
Quoting Naga5000:


Why are you using the charts with conditions initialized between March 5th and March 14th while Scott posted the ones initialized March 25th through April 3rd? All this nonsense to attack Scott is just old. Give it a rest, ignore him, you of all bloggers should not be engaging in the same tactics used on you.


Ok that's odd because this came from exactly the same page as his and I just took it off from there

First of all its not nonsense his Ninõ theory is a bit nonsense
I'm not attacking Scott I'm simply pointing out the diffrence
And thank you for pointing out why this particular chart showed a large difference either way what I said still stands models are bull this time of year
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
Interesting... while the SPC thinks there'll be a tornado outbreak, TWC's a little more conservative as their highest torcon is a 4.


Remember the Torcon is for tornadoes not all severe weather.

The SPC Outlook is for severe weather (at 30% currently).
When we get closer to the day the SPC will give us their tornado chances.

The day we had the tornadoes in Moore and Tulsa the SPC only had a 5% chance of tornadoes for central and northeast Oklahoma.
Quoting 212. Wolfberry:

Thanks Pottery (there ya go!)


Greetings !
Coming up your way in May.
Driving from Tucson to Grand Canyon with stops in between.
Quoting 218. wunderkidcayman:



Ok that's odd because this came from exactly the same page as his and I just took it off from there

First of all its not nonsense his Ninõ theory is a bit nonsense
I'm not attacking Scott I'm simply pointing out the diffrence
And thank you for pointing out why this particular chart showed a large difference either way what I said still stands models are bull this time of year


So you used the older charts because they were on the page? That isn't a good justification...Besides, if the models are bull, then you probably shouldn't be extrapolating future conditions based on 7 day changes either, right?

Quoting 214. wunderkidcayman:

Also Scott looking at your first of second favourite (can't really tell with you) images from Levi

Ninõ 1+2 and Ninõ 3 has cooled
And can clearly been seen on 7 day change anomaly charts and the Ninõ time series

And I'm sure that's not what you want in strengthening El Niño infact quite the opposite if you are looking for your strong apocalyptic El Niño



Right? Anything else?
Quoting 220. pottery:



Greetings !
Coming up your way in May.
Driving from Tucson to Grand Canyon with stops in between.
Sure would be great to see you Pot and show you the place.
Quoting 222. Wolfberry:

Sure would be great to see you Pot and show you the place.

Sent you a WUmail... :):))
Quoting 221. Naga5000:



So you used the older charts because they were on the page? That isn't a good justification...Besides, if the models are bull, then you probably shouldn't be extrapolating future conditions based on 7 day changes either, right?



Right? Anything else?



just Ignore him he this like too say stuff too get evere one started and going
226. beell
Quoting 146. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wednesday continues to look interesting to me. I'm not sold on a big outbreak of tornadoes thanks to concerns about forcing/capping, but the parameters the GFS is indicating across central Kansas down into central Oklahoma -- 45-50kt 500mb winds, 35-40kt 850mb winds, dewpoints in the mid-60s, 3000-3500j/kg CAPE, surface LCL heights <1000m, and lifted indices at or below -10C -- would definitely favor the potential for at least a few supercells capable of producing tornadoes along the dryline. I wouldn't be surprised to see our first Moderate risk then.

As always, things are subject to change.




Some soundings/forecast soundings report LCL's at pressure level instead of meters.
227. vis0

Quoting 218. wunderkidcayman:



Ok that's odd because this came from exactly the same page as his and I just took it off from there

First of all its not nonsense his Ninõ theory is a bit nonsense
I'm not attacking Scott I'm simply pointing out the diffrence
And thank you for pointing out why this particular chart showed a large difference either way what I said still stands models are bull this time of year
i disagree with both of ya i see something completely different
Quoting 204. Stormwatch247:

Good Morning!

It is April 5, 2015. Happy Easter!

The Atlantic hurricane season begins less than 2 months from today.

If the current El Nino trends continue, we still have to be ready. The years 1947, 1957, 1965, 1974, 1975, 1979, 1983, 1991, and 1992, were very slow years in the number of named Atlantic named storms. However, those years also featured major U.S. hurricane landfalls.

My EARLY predictions for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

7-9 Named Storms
5-6 Hurricanes
1-2 Major Hurricanes

Although SSTs in the ATLANTIC BASIN, are lower than some previous years, the Gulf of Mexico is still warm. If all of the atmospheric conditions were favorable, a Gulf Coast hurricane landfall could be possible. We also have to keep a watchful eye on the Atlantic Seaboard.

Let's hope that after dealing with the 2004-2005, and 2008 hyper-active hurricane seasons (with multiple U.S. landfalls), that coastal residents don't let their guard down.
1979. I doubt it. 79 was below average ( slightly ) but was actually quite active in the respect there were 27 depressions, which means that things were really moist out there, especially compared to the past few years.



First system formed June 11, 1979
Last system dissipated November 15, 1979
Strongest storm David – 924 mbar (hPa) (27.3 inHg), 175 mph (280 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Total depressions 27
Total storms 9
Hurricanes 5
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3) 2
Total fatalities 2136
Total damage $4.637 billion (1979 USD)
229. JRRP
Quoting vis0:

i disagree with both of ya i see something completely different

what is that.. jajajajaja
Hello everyone, happy easter to you all. It's beautiful day here in my hometown of Savannah,Ga, with clear skies, and 65 degree weather. Btw everyone, I am now 14 years old as of April 3rd. And it's so good to be back here on wunderground. Also, there are hints of a below average hurricane season from Phil Klotzbatch.Link
Quoting 224. pottery:


Sent you a WUmail... :):))
Back at ya Sir Pottery!!
Quoting 53. ColoradoBob1:

Remember the story of methane craters? Here is the scientific report:

NEW PERMAFROST FEATURE –.
DEEP CRATER IN CENTRAL YAMAL.
(WEST SIBERIA, RUSSIA) AS A RESPONSE.
TO LOCAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS.

Page 68 of the pdf.

Link

Bob, thank you, been waiting for a more in-depth explanation. And I'm a bit impressed with your locating skills :)
Quoting 230. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Hello everyone, happy easter to you all. It's beautiful day here in my hometown of Savannah,Ga, with clear skies, and 65 degree weather. Btw everyone, I am now 14 years old as of April 3rd. And it's so good to be back here on wunderground. Also, there are hints of a below average hurricane season from Phil Klotzbatch.Link

Happy birthday, tigger. Nice to see you back.

Quoting 230. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Hello everyone, happy easter to you all. It's beautiful day here in my hometown of Savannah,Ga, with clear skies, and 65 degree weather. Btw everyone, I am now 14 years old as of April 3rd. And it's so good to be back here on wunderground. Also, there are hints of a below average hurricane season from Phil Klotzbatch.Link



Happy belated birthday and welcome back.
Quoting 227. vis0:


i disagree with both of ya i see something completely different


This is one of the funniest (and most original) posts I've seen here on WU.

Happy Easter, everyone! Currently nice and mild here in Southeast Louisiana. It's 65, headed to high 70s/80. WU's calling for an inch of rain later today, whereas NWS is calling for 0.25-0.5" (but I'm on the border of the 0.1-0.25" range. We shall see which entity is correct.

Yesterday was nice as well, and the last two nights dipped into the 50s. Kind of nice after the relatively hot (and record-breaking) weather last week. But, it looks like mid-80s weather returns tomorrow, and looking at the QPF for the end of the week, we could be getting a whole lot of rain headed our way.
Quoting 230. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Hello everyone, happy easter to you all. It's beautiful day here in my hometown of Savannah,Ga, with clear skies, and 65 degree weather. Btw everyone, I am now 14 years old as of April 3rd. And it's so good to be back here on wunderground. Also, there are hints of a below average hurricane season from Phil Klotzbatch.Link


Happy Birthday kid!
I have Hurricane scorecard file open... just few changes and additions I have to do now
My peeps are all here.

: P
239. vis0
CREDIT:: JTWC
Beach is already packed and it's only 12:00 pm.

I guess it's the place to be with highs in the upper 80s with bright sunshine.

Fort Myers Beach
Quoting 237. MaxWeather:

I have Hurricane scorecard file open... just few changes and additions I have to do now


put me down for 10 storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major
Quoting ILwthrfan:

put me down for 10 storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major


That looks pretty good.

Go ahead and put me down for

12 storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major
Thanks you guys
IL 71th
SouthFlorida 72nd
@ Islander101010

Can you verify your prediction?
13-4-6 is not right.
Maybe 13-6-4 ?

Really need some rain. We're setting ourselves up for a bad fire season.

Drought Code for Southwest Florida.



The DC is a numerical rating of the moisture content of deep, compact, organic layers. It is a useful indicator of seasonal drought and shows the likelihood of fire involving the deep duff layers and large logs. A long period of dry weather (the system uses 52 days) is needed to dry out these fuels and affect the Drought Code. A DC rating of 200 is high, and 300 or more is extreme indicating that fire will involve deep sub-surface and heavy fuels. Burning off should not be permitted when the DC rating is above 300.
Quoting 241. ILwthrfan:


put me down for 10 storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major

Thanks for doing this again, Max.
It's good fun.
I see I will have to share my 1st Prize with 'dragod66'.

heheheheh
Rainy days ahead.
Quoting LAbonbon:

This is one of the funniest (and most original) posts I've seen here on WU.

Happy Easter, everyone! Currently nice and mild here in Southeast Louisiana. It's 65, headed to high 70s/80. WU's calling for an inch of rain later today, whereas NWS is calling for 0.25-0.5" (but I'm on the border of the 0.1-0.25" range. We shall see which entity is correct.

Yesterday was nice as well, and the last two nights dipped into the 50s. Kind of nice after the relatively hot (and record-breaking) weather last week. But, it looks like mid-80s weather returns tomorrow, and looking at the QPF for the end of the week, we could be getting a whole lot of rain headed our way.
Happy Easter as well, and to everyone here. There's nothing worse than an El Nino caused bad hair day, no doubt about it. :-)

It was a little nippy last night with a low of 42. At least it was clear, unlike Saturday morning, when there were just enough clouds that i couldn't see the eclipse. It's sunny but breezy with winds veering from north to south. There's an interesting blob headed your way that might be able to moisten things up and give you some rain. I'd like to believe it will do that here but, with a temperature of 77 and a dewpoint of just 42 I'm afraid the dry air will chew up whatever manages to make it this far east. The upcoming week will be interesting. You probably have a better chance of rain with whatever develops than I do but a lot depends on where the low tracks from the Rockies. If we really get a strong cold front there's at least a chance of thunderstorms and some rain over here on Thursday into Friday. Hope springs eternal. :-)
12z GFS supercell composite and crossovers for Wednesday evening:

Quoting MaxWeather:
Thanks you guys
IL 71th
SouthFlorida 72nd
Ok, Ok. I'm jumping on the El Nino bandwagon. Put me down for 8-2-1.
southwestern Indian ocean cyclones

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 13-20142015
16:00 PM RET April 5 2015
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 13R (1000 hPa) located at 15.9S 64.5E has 10 minute sustained wind of 25 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 15.4S 62.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS 14.9S 60.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 15.0S 59.1E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS 15.3S 58.9E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================
The system has intensified over the last 24 hours. The deep convection has strengthened with little fluctuations regards to diurnal cycle. In the lower levels, the latest microwave imagery suggest a gradual improvement of the structure.

The system is within a rather favorable environment now although monsoon inflow is indirect and a slight easterly constraint may exist north of the upper level ridge.

Within the next two days at least, the system should track west northwestwards or westwards as a transient subtropical ridge pass to the south. Beyond, the ridge weaken and a broad barometric col should take place south of 20.0S. The system should lie within a weak steering environment and could drift southeastwards over the southwestern edge of a near equatorial ridge. The motion is expected to be slow by that time.

There is still significant uncertainties (cf ensemble forecast from ECMWF showing some strong spread) on the timing and the localization of the change in the track.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 14-20142015
10:00 AM RET April 5 2015
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 14R (998 hPa) located at 11.8S 87.2E has 10 minute sustained wind of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 5 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
==================
Extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 12.7S 87.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 13.9S 88.8E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 17.6S 91.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 21.7S 95.8E - 30 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
The system has intensified over the last 12 hours. The low level circulation is better defined and recently the deep convection wraps more than 0.5. Ft is however retained at 2.0+ based on an average of the last 3 hours and constraint. The intensity of this advisory is based on ASCAT data that show near gale force winds close to the center and over a significant portions of the circulation.

The system is located north of a barometric col that lies south of 20.0S. This weakness within the subtropical ridge should maintain within the next few days as a new upper to mid-level trough arrives from the southwest. Between that feature and a building mid-level near equatorial ridge to the northeast, a general southeastwards track is expected for much of the forecast period. There is some good agreement amongst the numerical guidance on this scenario.

Improving environmental conditions(decreasing shear, excellent upper level divergence with dual outflow, one to the southeast and one to the northwest, sufficient ocean heat contain) are expected to occur today and should maintain through the next 24-36 hours. Tuesday, the favorable windows could be definitively closed (stronger northwesterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures).

Given the current forecast track, the system is expected to cross 90.0E Monday night.
252. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA & a MidWestt/Western University.
image host
The previous version (comment on last pg.)of this type of combined imagery was in using NOAA imagery and took too long to resize - edit. So i looked around found 8 already joined W&E CONus with the latest imagery. (lots easier to have someone else join the conus areas when trying to join conUS's without state outlines.) Its from a University whose servers prefer to present their product through their page therefore not including them in credits as to not overload their servers. This university also will substitute the closest conus image if 1 of the 2 exact time conus images is down, therefore instead of seeing a blank you might see a slight delay. Also this presentation is not a product of threat University its a vis0 thing, higher potentials shows up like a more 3dimensional cloud formation severe as a water droplet (curved 3 D -ish cloud tops). JOKE:: Careful in NE there's a Salamander heading your way from Toronto. weather:: lots of birds flying north since 3 days ago as observed here in NYC.
Quoting 249. TropicalAnalystwx13:

12z GFS supercell composite and crossovers for Wednesday evening:





How about thursday? I know wednesday's storms are going to be on the dryline but thursday's storms look to be over a wider area.
Never dreamed of a white Easter Sunday before, yet here we are and we are having one. Couple inches of snow on the ground and it is still snowing.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:

Really need some rain. We're setting ourselves up for a bad fire season.

Drought Code for Southwest Florida.



The DC is a numerical rating of the moisture content of deep, compact, organic layers. It is a useful indicator of seasonal drought and shows the likelihood of fire involving the deep duff layers and large logs. A long period of dry weather (the system uses 52 days) is needed to dry out these fuels and affect the Drought Code. A DC rating of 200 is high, and 300 or more is extreme indicating that fire will involve deep sub-surface and heavy fuels. Burning off should not be permitted when the DC rating is above 300.
Kind of weird day here with wind gusts up to 20 mph but constantly swinging from north to south. I assume there's a pressure gradient between me and the stalled front over Florida. The high is moving east at a pretty good clip which is apparently causing the mostly easterly flow. There have been several brush fires this morning, and the veering winds are giving firefighters fits. I don't know why BMX hasn't issued a red flag warning but my humidity has been at or below 30% all morning. Not that a red flag warning does much good here. The tag line is "burning is strongly discouraged", which means you can burn all you want, just be sure to call the fire department sooner if it gets out of control. They issue burn permits three or four days in advance and don't seem to have a way to cancel a permit if there's a red flag. This is the time that the pine plantations get burned off to remove understory growth that interferes with the tree harvest, and no one wants to interfere with the timber interests.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



How about thursday? I know wednesday's storms are going to be on the dryline but thursday's storms look to be over a wider area.
There are still a fair number of run to run inconsistencies, especially between the GFS and the Euro. If the GFS is right, the system is going to move faster, and slower if the Euro is right. My gut feeling is that Thursday will be the big day (if we have a big day) but it might start Wednesday evening and carry over into Thursday. I do think your neck of the woods is going to be in the bullseye Thursday morning and afternoon. What I'm afraid of is this is going to be an after dark event in Kansas and northern Arkansas. If the low becomes negatively tilted and it moves into as rich a moist environment as the GFS depicts, this could be an impressive severe storm and tornado producer. If the Euro is right, the results will be more like we saw last week. Maybe we'll have a better picture by this time tomorrow.
Quoting Dakster:
Never dreamed of a white Easter Sunday before, yet here we are and we are having one. Couple inches of snow on the ground and it is still snowing.
Happy White Easter, Dak. I guess the bunny had to get out the snowmobile this morning. I remember an Easter in Cleveland when I was just a whippersnapper. We were having an Easter egg hunt after church and the parents hid the eggs the night before. It was kind of chilly, as Cleveland always was the first week in April, but not bad, with temperatures in the 40's as I remember it. Woke up the next morning to five inches of snow. The weather bureau of those days wasn't too good at predicting those kind of things. After church, everyone went out back and just kind of stared at the snow. There were a lot of kids whining and crying that day. We finally had the Easter egg hunt on Tuesday.
Quoting 245. Sfloridacat5:


Really need some rain. We're setting ourselves up for a bad fire season.

Drought Code for Southwest Florida.



The DC is a numerical rating of the moisture content of deep, compact, organic layers. It is a useful indicator of seasonal drought and shows the likelihood of fire involving the deep duff layers and large logs. A long period of dry weather (the system uses 52 days) is needed to dry out these fuels and affect the Drought Code. A DC rating of 200 is high, and 300 or more is extreme indicating that fire will involve deep sub-surface and heavy fuels. Burning off should not be permitted when the DC rating is above 300.
south florida IF the models prove true has a good shot of rain the 12th thru the 17th..but we all know they can change in a day or so..good luck down there..rainy reason is coming
Quoting 253. TimTheWxMan:




How about thursday? I know wednesday's storms are going to be on the dryline but thursday's storms look to be over a wider area.

Quoting 237. MaxWeather:

I have Hurricane scorecard file open... just few changes and additions I have to do now



Hi Max.I think you missed my post at your blog (#11) with my numbers.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning, and Happy Easter!

Here's an excerpt from the SPC day 4-8 outlook. Wednesday and Thursday, especially Thursday, are both looking pretty interesting right now.

DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THIS FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO
SEVERE RISK FOR DAY 4 /WED 4-8/ ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN OK/ERN KS/MO.
ALL MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND
AT LEAST HINTS OF A SUBTLE/EMBEDDED WAVE CROSSING THE REGION NEAR
PEAK HEATING. ATTM...EXPECT RESULTING UVV TO BE SUFFICIENT ATOP THE
EWD-MIXING DRYLINE TO PERMIT CAP WEAKENING SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TOPPED BY STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING FLOW THAT VEERS
SUBSTANTIALLY AND INCREASES STEADILY WITH HEIGHT...SHEAR WILL FAVOR
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND ATTENDANT RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
STORM COVERAGE...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 15% PROBABILITY AREA ATTM --
DESPITE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORM THAT
DOES DEVELOP.

THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS -- BUT WITH GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF TIMING AND AREA -- EXISTS DAY 5 /THU 4-9/.
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW IN THE KS/NEB/IA VICINITY AND ADVANCE
OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL FACILITATE
A BROAD ZONE OF STORM INITIATION...GIVEN THE MOIST/FAVORABLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED. WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AS COMPARED TO
DAY 4 GIVEN PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN MID-LEVEL JET STREAK INTO THE
CENTRAL STATES...SUPERCELL STORMS AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.



I get the feeling this is NOT something you see every day.
Quoting 245. Sfloridacat5:


Really need some rain. We're setting ourselves up for a bad fire season.

Drought Code for Southwest Florida.



The DC is a numerical rating of the moisture content of deep, compact, organic layers. It is a useful indicator of seasonal drought and shows the likelihood of fire involving the deep duff layers and large logs. A long period of dry weather (the system uses 52 days) is needed to dry out these fuels and affect the Drought Code. A DC rating of 200 is high, and 300 or more is extreme indicating that fire will involve deep sub-surface and heavy fuels. Burning off should not be permitted when the DC rating is above 300.


I wouldn't worry too much about it, April and May is the fire season, if there aren't already too many fires, then it probably won't get too bad. Fire in Florida can be pretty beneficial, usually just burning old tropical underbrush that's long dead from past summer and helping clear room for new trees to grow.

But yes, rain is much need there, that's for sure.
Interesting little cyclonic twist in the showers offshore ECFL early this afternoon, hopefully will come onshore intact in the easterly flow later and bring some much-needed rain.
Quoting 254. Dakster:

Never dreamed of a white Easter Sunday before, yet here we are and we are having one. Couple inches of snow on the ground and it is still snowing.


Might wait till it stops snowing to hide those eggs.
Well according to the GFS 300 hour forecast we were suppose to be having a snow storm today for Easter...The reality? Sunny and breezy with highs in the mid 60's.lol.
Quoting MaxWeather:
Thanks you guys
IL 71th
SouthFlorida 72nd


Put me down for 9-2-1
Image below is the 12z NAM sounding just southeast southwest of Wichita, KS valid at 21z (5:00pm ET) Wednesday afternoon.



Ouch.
Quoting 269. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Image below is the 12z NAM sounding just southeast of Wichita, KS valid at 21z (5:00pm ET) Wednesday afternoon.



Ouch.
I do not know if I am seeing the chart right, but does it say 7.45 on the Showalter Index.? If so, that would be big trouble.
Quoting 263. 62901IL:



I get the feeling this is NOT something you see every day.


A 30% on day five is pretty rare. Based on my time reading the discussions at least, which has been quite a number of years.
272. beell
SI is Showalter.
SW is SWEAT
What is the latest update for the cfsv2 model for enso. Where could I find it???
Quoting 273. tiggerhurricanes2001:

What is the latest update for the cfsv2 model for enso. Where could I find it???


I knew you'd calm down. Glad you're back.
Forms the Tropical Storm Ikola:
Comment #265, swirl alert
Quoting 272. beell:

SI is Showalter.
SW is SWEAT


Sweat? That's a weird index, why would they want to know how much they're going to sweat when they step outside?

:P

(What does it really mean?)
Quoting 271. KoritheMan:



A 30% on day five is pretty rare. Based on my time reading the discussions at least, which has been quite a number of years.


I'm not too familiar with tornado advisories, but the original warning seemed ominous, like a 'perfect storm' situation, but being deliberately understated due to it being 4 days out.

They seem pretty sure about it, but I don't know how accurate these 4 day predictions are. Hopefully, if it comes true, the violent ones will miss the towns.
279. beell
Quoting 277. Astrometeor:



Sweat? That's a weird index, why would they want to know how much they're going to sweat when they step outside?

:P

(What does it really mean?)


I don't know. I never use it! I prefer to look at the individual values in these composite parameter indices

A canned answer:
The SWEAT Index evaluates the potential for severe weather by examining both kinematic and thermodynamic information into one index. Parameters include low-level moisture (850 mb dewpoint), instability (Total Totals Index), lower and middle-level (850 and 500 mb) wind speeds, and warm air advection (veering between 850 and 500 mb). Unlike the K Index, the SWEAT index should be used to assess severe weather potential, not ordinary thunderstorm potential.
Quoting 277. Astrometeor:



Sweat? That's a weird index, why would they want to know how much they're going to sweat when they step outside?

:P

(What does it really mean?)


Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT). It literally represents a combination of several synoptic variables and is used to gauge the threat for severe weather over a given area. If memory serves, I think it takes into account things like low (850 mb) and mid (500 mb) level wind speeds and direction. Lapse rates too, IIRC.
Quoting 278. yonzabam:



I'm not too familiar with tornado advisories, but the original warning seemed ominous, like a 'perfect storm' situation, but being deliberately understated due to it being 4 days out.

They seem pretty sure about it, but I don't know how accurate these 4 day predictions are. Hopefully, if it comes true, the violent ones will miss the towns.


Yeah, conservatism comes into play anytime, but definitely during the medium to long range. If you don't learn that, you won't last very long as a forecaster.

People don't seem to realize that even a 45% area (hatched or otherwise) is pretty significant from a statistical perspective. A five day 30% is rather impressive and denotes good consistency amongst the guidance.
You know you're in trouble when the SPC/NWS issues a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado forecast.

On average, only 2 to 3, PDS forecasts are issued per year.
Quoting 246. pottery:


Thanks for doing this again, Max.
It's good fun.
I see I will have to share my 1st Prize with 'dragod66'.

heheheheh

lol
This time there is a prize for real!!!
Quoting 250. sar2401:

Ok, Ok. I'm jumping on the El Nino bandwagon. Put me down for 8-2-1.
finally! lol
74th - thanks
Quoting 268. 62901IL:



Put me down for 9-2-1
Ok. First time you join I believe
75th
Quoting 276. Sfloridacat5:

Comment #265, swirl alert


I've been wishing for it to pull together and hit me all day. The grass is parched & I'm over watering the garden....Here swirly, swirly, swirly...


...MARCH 2015 WAS MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...
Max, how long is your contest open? I'll have my prediction ready in about a month; waiting to see what El Nino does.
Quoting 286. KoritheMan:

Max, how long is your contest open? I'll have my prediction ready in about a month; waiting to see what El Nino does.
'til June 1, when the season starts
Quoting 285. Skyepony:


I've been wishing for it to pull together and hit me all day. The grass is parched & I'm over watering the garden....Here swirly, swirly, swirly...


...MARCH 2015 WAS MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...


Hmm. Tennessee had a boring month:

MARCH WAS NEAR NORMAL IN TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL AT NASHVILLE...
Quoting 272. beell:

SI is Showalter.
SW is SWEAT
Minus 10.6..? that is a lot of lift..If that doesnt change, tornadoes will form...and big ones..
291. beell
Quoting 285. Skyepony:


...MARCH 2015 WAS MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...


Quoting 289. Astrometeor:



MARCH WAS NEAR NORMAL IN TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL AT NASHVILLE...


neener...

THE MONTH OF MARCH WAS MUCH WETTER THAN NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
292. beell
Quoting 290. hydrus:

Minus 10.6..? that is a lot of lift..If that doesnt change, tornadoes will form...and big ones..


And a look at the CAPE profile and CAPE from LCL to EL from your favorite model forecast sounding could give you that same impression with out a lot of...SWEAT

:)
Quoting beell:




neener...

THE MONTH OF MARCH WAS MUCH WETTER THAN NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.


Past 30 Day percent of normal precipitation

The "ghost rain event season" on the GFS has officially started!!



Of course what the GFS shows over the NE Caribbean WILL NOT HAPPEN!
Quoting 294. CaribBoy:

The "ghost rain event season" on the GFS has officially started!!



Of course what the GFS shows over the NE Caribbean WILL NOT HAPPEN!


Too early for a tropical wave. I'm not sure I buy that prediction just based off that. The precipitation seems WAY too far north, and way too focused for a baroclinic system to produce this close to summer.
Quoting hydrus:
Minus 10.6..? that is a lot of lift..If that doesnt change, tornadoes will form...and big ones..


Yup. This is turning into may 25 2011 all over again.

A bit of a cool off....
Wow, getting indications here of a major pattern change for the Northern Gulf Coast.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE IKOLA (14-20142015)
22:00 PM RET April 5 2015
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Ikola (996 hPa) located at 12.6S 87.9E has 10 minute sustained wind of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
20 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 14.0S 88.9E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 15.6S 90.4E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS 19.4S 93.9E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS 23.1S 98.3E - 35 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
The cloud pattern on infrared imagery shows a clear intensification in a curve band pattern since the last hours, so the system has been named.

No major change in the forecast track philosophy: the system is located north of a barometric col that lies south of 20.0S. This weakness within the subtropical ridge should maintain within the next few days as a new upper to mid-level trough arrives from the southwest. Between that feature and a building mid-level near equatorial ridge to the northeast, a general southeastwards track is expected for much of the forecast period. There is some good agreement amongst the numerical guidance on this scenario although some long-track uncertainty exist from Tuesday and beyond.

Improving environmental conditions(decreasing shear, excellent upper level divergence with dual outflow, one to the south-east and one to the northwest, sufficient ocean heat contain) are expected to occur today and should maintain through the next 24-36 hours. Tuesday, the favorable windows could be definitively closed (stronger northwesterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures).

Given the current forecast track, the system is expected to cross 90.0E at the end of Monday.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
You know you're in trouble when the SPC/NWS issues a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado forecast.

On average, only 2 to 3, PDS forecasts are issued per year.



Have they issued one?
Quoting 298. opal92nwf:

Wow, getting indications here of a major pattern change for the Northern Gulf Coast.


Good to see TWC still has good graphics, at least.
The swirl is almost to the coast.
Also, check out the convection on the east coast of Lake O.
East coast sea breeze must be interacting with a Lake O breeze.

303. 882MB
Quoting 294. CaribBoy:

The "ghost rain event season" on the GFS has officially started!!



Of course what the GFS shows over the NE Caribbean WILL NOT HAPPEN!


I Just read the San Juan, PR forecast discussion and it talks about a rainy setup with more moisture, towards the end of this upcoming weekend. Looking at models seems to be an upper level trough, combined, with high PWAT values. As read in the discussion.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
The swirl is almost to the coast.
Also, check out the convection on the east coast of Lake O.
East coast sea breeze must be interacting with a Lake O breeze.



Have they issued a PDS tornado outlook yet?
We are thinking alike. Next week should be an interesting one for severe weather. Hoping to get some waves soon.

Quoting 242. Sfloridacat5:



That looks pretty good.

Go ahead and put me down for

12 storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major
Pedley / Sar / Washi - Weird day for sure. And SAR the weather service still isn't good at predicting these kinds of things at least here. And seems like DC too.

Here there was no accumulation predicted... But yet had 3". Really, It doesn't bother me and it is 32.1 degrees out just warm enough to make a slushy mess out of it. Big clumps of half metle snow are falling off the trees and power lines now. It only bothers me when it makes the roads icy so as long as everything dries up before we get below freezing all is good. Right now the roads have good traction so all is well.
Quoting 62901IL:


Have they issued a PDS tornado outlook yet?


No, a PDS is usually issued the day of the event if the SPC/NWS believes there is an unusually high probability of large, dangerous tornadoes.
Quoting Xandra:
Rabbit Species Threatened By Climate Change


(Click for larger image)
Funny that graphic should mention the pika. I spent a lot of time backpacking in the Sierras from 1966 until about 2003. Pikas, or coneys, as almost everyone used to call them, are cute little guys, and the Sierras are full of them. They're pretty sociable, and they'd come out to inspect what you bought with you when you made camp. They'd scamper around the rocks and make all kinds of whistling sounds, so you really couldn't miss them. I started to notice less coneys about 1990, and a bigger decrease after 200o. I never really associated it with global warming, but things were definitely changing with them. I can only imagine what it's like now with the drought. :-(
I've been under a PDS watch before. They're not bust-proof.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I've been under a PDS watch before. They're not bust-proof.


Oh sure. Here's a study done on the accuracy of PDS outlooks (Watch).
Link

Here's the conclusion of the report for those not interested in reading the full report.

5. CONCLUSION
These results indicate that a forecast of a
%u201CParticularly Dangerous Situation%u201D tornado watch did
indeed represent an increased risk to life and property
from strong and violent tornadoes for the period 1996-
2005. There is an opportunity to further refine these
forecasts, since less than half of PDS TOR watches
contained at least one F2-F5 tornado, but improvements
will be dependant on improved specification of stormscale
environments and processes.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


No a PDS is usually issued the day of the event if the SPC/NWS believes the conditions are unusually high probability of large, dangerous tornadoes.
I think a PDS is only issued with a watch or warning so none would be issued so far in advance. We really don't know all the details of what this event will become so a PDS is really jumping the gun.
Quoting sar2401:
I think a PDS is only issued with a watch or warning so none would be issued so far in advance. We really don't know all the details of what this event will become so a PDS is really jumping the gun.


Yes, you are correct. It's a type of Tornado Watch.
Quoting 292. beell:



And a look at the CAPE profile and CAPE from LCL to EL from your favorite model forecast sounding could give you that same impression with out a lot of...SWEAT

:)
Oklahoma is going to get whacked...again..I feel bad for those folks
314. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington
D&T: Sun April 5th 19:15UTC last frame
SUBJECT:: was just practicing turning my neck to the right (for TS season) almost thought but nahh more serious developments on US states soil.
http://youtu.be/pJt2Qz7J5XM(188x174)
SAR - This one is for you.

Quoting 310. Sfloridacat5:



Oh sure. Here's a study done on the accuracy of PDS outlooks (Watch).
Link

Here's the conclusion of the report for those not interested in reading the full report.

5. CONCLUSION
These results indicate that a forecast of a
%u201CParticularly Dangerous Situation%u201D tornado watch did
indeed represent an increased risk to life and property
from strong and violent tornadoes for the period 1996-
2005. There is an opportunity to further refine these
forecasts, since less than half of PDS TOR watches
contained at least one F2-F5 tornado, but improvements
will be dependant on improved specification of stormscale
environments and processes.
Every time that I saw a PDS issued, it saved many lives...I have not seen every one of them, so its possible for bust.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yes, you are correct. It's a type of Tornado Watch.
I'm hoping that the public doesn't start to feel the lack of a PDS watch means that any tornadoes that form won't be a big deal. At one time, we only activated Skywarn spotters and the radio net when there was a tornado watch. We convinced BMX we should activate when there's a severe thunderstorm watch, although at a lower level than a tornado watch. All the spotters were notified, and the ones that were available went to predesignated locations and ate sandwiches and drank coffee until we got warnings. The net controllers were on standby and handling routine traffic from the spotters in the field. This paid off a number of times when we had rain wrapped tornadoes appear when there was just a thunderstorm watch. It would have been impossible to mobilize people otherwise. A severe thunderstorm warning can turn into a lot more in nothing flat, at least here.
I wonder how long it will be until we see a PDS Tornado Watch like this:



TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

WT 0235 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : >95%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU5.

$$
Quoting Dakster:
SAR - This one is for you.

LOL. I just popped a Sudafed before I read this. Thank goodness it was already down. Between the Sudafed, Flonase, and about 10 other pills, my allergies are finally improving. It has been a really terrible allergy season. It's the first time I ever had to sleep sitting up because I couldn't breathe laying down.
Latest NAM has MLCAPE at 4000..

Happy Easter everyone. May God be with you all always. Love you guys.
Quoting 321. Andrebrooks:

Happy Easter everyone. May God be with you all always. Love you guys.
Happy Easter to you.
Thats so scary....could be the first high risk of the year....I look for the threat area to get larger...could be a large and dangerous Tornado Outbreak

Quoting 320. hydrus:

Latest NAM has MLCAPE at 4000..


Sar I have a CPAP so I an generally sleep laying down. Hope your allergies get better soon.
Quoting hydrus:
Latest NAM has MLCAPE at 4000..



WHAT, 4000?!?!?!?!?!?! There's NO WAY that can be right, can it?!?!?!?!

And I'm in the 2000 area.

Definitley Moderate/High risk worthy.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I wonder how long it will be until we see a PDS Tornado Watch like this:



TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0235
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

WT 0235 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : >95%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 25040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES

&&
FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND
WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU5.

$$
Let's hope never. We had already had a bad morning, with tornadoes in north Alabama. When that PDS was issued, the CAPE in Birmingham was almost at 4000 j/kg and dewpoints were still climbing. At about 2:00 pm. My temperature was 87 and my dewpoint was 77. I thought my sensor was broken, but you could feel it when you went outside. They sky had that "look" that I don't have to explain to anyone who's been in something like this. After all the tornadoes in the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham corridor later in the afternoon, we thought thing were finally calming down. Then we got nailed with an EF-4 at 8:00 the next county over that killed 7 people. That was a good example of a tornado that started out as a severe thunderstorm warning.

Yeah, I hope we don't see that again.
Quoting sar2401:
Let's hope never. We had already had a bad morning, with tornadoes in north Alabama. When that PDS was issued, the CAPE in Birmingham was almost at 4000 j/kg and dewpoints were still climbing. At about 2:00 pm. My temperature was 87 and my dewpoint was 77. I thought my sensor was broken, but you could feel it when you went outside. They sky had that "look" that I don't have to explain to anyone who's been in something like this. After all the tornadoes in the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham corridor later in the afternoon, we thought thing were finally calming down. Then we got nailed with an EF-4 at 8:00 the next county over that killed 7 people. That was a good example of a tornado that started out as a severe thunderstorm warning.

Yeah, I hope we don't see that again.


What is this look SAR is talking about?

Sorry, I really don't know.
Looks like a 1 day risk could go from Texas all the way to West Virginia

Quoting 325. 62901IL:



WHAT, 4000?!?!?!?!?!?! There's NO WAY that can be right, can it?!?!?!?!

And I'm in the 2000 area.

Definitley Moderate/High risk worthy.


WADDYA MEAN, NO HAZARDOUS WEATH3R IS EXPECTED TONIGHT?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

Sorry, just had to do that. :)
Quoting hydrus:
Latest NAM has MLCAPE at 4000..

Am I reading that right? 000z Wednesday would be 7:00 pm Tuesday? If so, that CAPE doesn't seem right.
Does our basin look bad??? Does it look good???? Does it look typical???? IMO it looks typical, and in ok shape. People keep saying, oh this season will be inactive, oh this sst setup is the most unfavorable I've ever seen before. IMO we should just wait for time to tell. In fact, there are some hints in the seven day change, that the trade winds are starting to reverse, inducing further warming in the MDR and near Cape Verde. I mean, it's not like the cool pool near Africa extends all the way to the GOM. Let's be real. JMO.
332. beell
Quoting 330. sar2401:

Am I reading that right? 000z Wednesday would be 7:00 pm Tuesday? If so, that CAPE doesn't seem right.


As the models turn!

A chance of Added: surface-based dryline storms Tuesday night on the 18Z runs. Heretofore, this area was modeled more-or-less as "capped". Added: Or offered up high-based hail storms
333. wxmod
Extreme Carbon Monoxide. Pacific and USA. MODIS satellite image today.

334. beell
This morning's 00Z NAM at the same forecast time (00Z Wednesday).
Not a lot of difference wrt CAPE and the 18Z run.


04/05 00Z NAM @ 7PM CDT Tuesday


04/05 18Z NAM @ 7PM CDT Tuesday

A portion of today's Day 3



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT SUN APR 05 2015

...SWRN MO/SERN KS INTO OK...
SIMILAR TO DAY 2...A VERY UNSTABLE -- BUT CAPPED -- AIRMASS IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK NEAR AND E OF THE EWD-MIXING DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CAP -- AT THE BASE OF THE EML LAYER -- IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO LARGELY HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY SWD INTO TX. HOWEVER...WITH A SLIGHTLY FLATTER MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD IMPLYING A SUBTLY WEAKER TENDENCY FOR LARGE-SCALE/BACKGROUND SUBSIDENCE...A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION OF STORM OR TWO OVER THE OK/SERN KS VICINITY IS INDICATED. PRESUMING INITIATION...SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION WOULD LIKELY OCCUR QUICKLY GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT -- AND THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL/NARROW 5% RISK AREA FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM S CENTRAL/SWRN OK NEWD INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 04/05/2015
335. wxmod
World Carbon Monoxide. MODIS satellite image from NASA.
I'm always amazed to see people casually stroll in front of a flood, like in the movie Jeff Masters posted. Must be trying to be cool, or act casual in the face of danger. How heroic!
I'm posting carbon monoxide imagery because it's likely to kill you and your family. And yet you are ignoring it, or pretending to.

Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Does our basin look bad??? Does it look good???? Does it look typical???? IMO it looks typical, and in ok shape. People keep saying, oh this season will be inactive, oh this sst setup is the most unfavorable I've ever seen before. IMO we should just wait for time to tell. In fact, there are some hints in the seven day change, that the trade winds are starting to reverse, inducing further warming in the MDR and near Cape Verde. I mean, it's not like the cool pool near Africa extends all the way to the GOM. Let's be real. JMO.


No, that SST profile is absolutely abysmal for activity. The main focus of heat is at 35N and well below average near the Cape Verde islands. The only positive thing for hurricane activity (or negative, depending on your point of view) is that SSTs in the GOMEX are extremely high for this time of year.
Quoting 336. CybrTeddy:



No, that SST profile is absolutely abysmal for activity. The main focus of heat is at 35N and well below average near the Cape Verde islands. The only positive thing for hurricane activity (or negative, depending on your point of view) is that SSTs in the GOMEX are extremely high for this time of year.


If one were to consider SST's only, that map doesn't look too bad IMO (but it's only early April and much can/will change in 2 months). While it's cool from the Cape Verdes west to the mid-Atlantic, anomalies are running near avg/slightly above avg east of the Leeward Islands and points west. I wouldn't focus too much on heat content further north. A .4 C positive anomaly in the Caribbean versus a 1 C positive anomaly further north would/should yield comparable SST's. Just my novice opine FWIW.
Quoting 323. weatherlover94:

Thats so scary....could be the first high risk of the year....I look for the threat area to get larger...could be a large and dangerous Tornado Outbreak




Could someone with knowledge please explain what the thousand means in the maps, I see 2000, 3000 and 4000 in the Oklahoma Missouri area.
Quoting 338. trunkmonkey:



Could someone with knowledge please explain what the thousand means in the maps, I see 2000, 3000 and 4000 in the Oklahoma Missouri area.


Those are the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values measured in joules per kilogram of air, to borrow from wiki, "CAPE is effectively the positive buoyancy of an air parcel and is an indicator of atmospheric instability, which makes it very valuable in predicting severe weather".
Quoting 339. Naga5000:



Those are the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values measured in joules per kilogram of air, to borrow from wiki, "CAPE is effectively the positive buoyancy of an air parcel and is an indicator of atmospheric instability, which makes it very valuable in predicting severe weather".


In Indiana were in the 3000 CAPE, looks like we might be in trouble for Wednesday and Thursday!
Quoting 337. StAugustineFL:



If one were to consider SST's only, that map doesn't look too bad IMO (but it's only early April and much can/will change in 2 months). While it's cool from the Cape Verdes west to the mid-Atlantic, anomalies are running near avg/slightly above avg east of the Leeward Islands and points west. I wouldn't focus too much on heat content further north. A .4 C positive anomaly in the Caribbean versus a 1 C positive anomaly further north would/should yield comparable SST's. Just my novice opine FWIW.

It's not as much about the actual SSTs as it is the anomalies. Warmer waters compared to average will focus upward motion in the subtropical, yielding sinking air farther south. That is not a favorable setup for tropical cyclogenesis.

The fact that we're in an El Nino also complicates the situation across the Caribbean and Gulf. Sure, waters are very warm there, but do we see anything significant develop in that region given an unfavorable upper-level setup?

As always, it only takes one--but the chances of that 'one' are likely appreciably lower than average this season.
What about the CAPE for 00Z Friday (7 p.m. thursday)?
GFS 18Z lol
Quoting 303. 882MB:



I Just read the San Juan, PR forecast discussion and it talks about a rainy setup with more moisture, towards the end of this upcoming weekend. Looking at models seems to be an upper level trough, combined, with high PWAT values. As read in the discussion.


Would be nice if the GFS is right!
Quoting 341. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's not as much about the actual SSTs as it is the anomalies. Warmer waters compared to average will focus upward motion in the subtropical, yielding sinking air farther south. That is not a favorable setup for tropical cyclogenesis.

The fact that we're in an El Nino also complicates the situation across the Caribbean and Gulf. Sure, waters are very warm there, but do we see anything significant develop in that region given an unfavorable upper-level setup?

As always, it only takes one--but the chances of that 'one' are likely appreciably lower than average this season.


Then you have every member of the Euro and CFSv2 showing a strong El-Nino. I don't every recall this good of an agreement amongst many enso models.





Then there this precip forecast for September. Baren just doesn't even begin to describe the state across the Caribbean.

Quoting 335. wxmod:

World Carbon Monoxide. MODIS satellite image from NASA.
I'm always amazed to see people casually stroll in front of a flood, like in the movie Jeff Masters posted. Must be trying to be cool, or act casual in the face of danger. How heroic!
I'm posting carbon monoxide imagery because it's likely to kill you and your family. And yet you are ignoring it, or pretending to.



You're referring to the folks that likely weren't cognizant of the danger they were in, until they began running for their lives? That was my impression, anyway. And I didn't view it as a 'movie' of people trying to act cool or casual, I saw videos documenting tremendous and unexpected flash flooding that has taken so many lives, some of whom were probably carried away by the very waters that were documented in the videos.

Regarding the image you posted - it's hard to get excited or worried about an image that has no scale, and no way to ascertain the level of danger to us. The image you posted comes from a site called 'Deni's Vacations', but their 'pollution' file that houses the image isn't accessible. So I went to NASA's EOSDIS Worldview to recreate the image. I was able to do so somewhat, by turning on the 'Carbon Monoxide (Total Column, Night)' and the 'Land Mask' images. (The images weren't exact, as it looks like the image you posted may have combined carbon monoxide layers from both day and night layers.) But alas, there's no scale there, either. Nor could I easily locate one.

So, does anyone have information pertaining to the carbon monoxide imagery in regards to scale? I'm simply not familiar with that aspect of NASA's data collection.
Quoting 346. StormTrackerScott:



Then you have every member of the Euro and CFSv2 showing a strong El-Nino. I don't every recall this good of an agreement amongst many enso models.






*cough* last year *cough* and we all know the result of that was.
Quoting 326. sar2401:

Let's hope never. We had already had a bad morning, with tornadoes in north Alabama. When that PDS was issued, the CAPE in Birmingham was almost at 4000 j/kg and dewpoints were still climbing. At about 2:00 pm. My temperature was 87 and my dewpoint was 77. I thought my sensor was broken, but you could feel it when you went outside. They sky had that "look" that I don't have to explain to anyone who's been in something like this. After all the tornadoes in the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham corridor later in the afternoon, we thought thing were finally calming down. Then we got nailed with an EF-4 at 8:00 the next county over that killed 7 people. That was a good example of a tornado that started out as a severe thunderstorm warning.

Yeah, I hope we don't see that again.


I hope we don't see 2011 season again, period. I went through high risk and tornado emergency on 4/16/11 and that was enough thrill for me around my own house :\
Quoting 348. Thrawst:


*cough* last year *cough* and we all know the result of that was.



Cough we already have El-Nino cough something we didn't have at this time last year. Cough ESPI is at 0.93 which is extremely high and means the atmosphere is for sure in an El-Nino state coupled with another WWB on the way then you will see this massive sub surface warm pool jump us into moderate El-Nino come June basically in like 7 to 8 weeks.

All these blue members are the most recent runs over the last week.

Quoting 346. StormTrackerScott:



Then you have every member of the Euro and CFSv2 showing a strong El-Nino. I don't every recall this good of an agreement amongst many enso models.





Then there this precip forecast for September. Baren just doesn't even begin to describe the state across the Caribbean.




We also had a very dry septamber in 2013 with only 1.1 inch! But yes, this forecast for september 2015 is catastrophic!
Haishen

Click cartoon to expand



Click images to expand











Next trough looks impressive...long way out at 10 days.
357. beell
Quoting 352. Grothar:

Haishen



Gesundheit. Hope you don't get that *cough* that's going around.
This would be a severe weather set up. I hope the trough will not be that deep if it materializes.

Quoting LAbonbon:

You're referring to the folks that likely weren't cognizant of the danger they were in, until they began running for their lives? That was my impression, anyway. And I didn't view it as a 'movie' of people trying to act cool or casual, I saw videos documenting tremendous and unexpected flash flooding that has taken so many lives, some of whom were probably carried away by the very waters that were documented in the videos.

Regarding the image you posted - it's hard to get excited or worried about an image that has no scale, and no way to ascertain the level of danger to us. The image you posted comes from a site called 'Deni's Vacations', but their 'pollution' file that houses the image isn't accessible. So I went to NASA's EOSDIS Worldview to recreate the image. I was able to do so somewhat, by turning on the 'Carbon Monoxide (Total Column, Night)' and the 'Land Mask' images. (The images weren't exact, as it looks like the image you posted may have combined carbon monoxide layers from both day and night layers.) But alas, there's no scale there, either. Nor could I easily locate one.

So, does anyone have information pertaining to the carbon monoxide imagery in regards to scale? I'm simply not familiar with that aspect of NASA's data collection.
I have never found a legend or data scale for any of the MODIS views. Other than red = bad and green = good, I have no idea what any of the hundreds of measurements MODIS makes means. Maybe I haven't looked in the right place either but the whole MODIS interface is pretty sparse. I can't find a help or FAQ section either. I did find that total column of CO is measuring the CO in the column from the surface to the stratosphere over one square centimeter of the earth. Not a typo, one square centimeter. Most of the CO comes from forest fires, ag burning, and tuk-tuks in SE Asia. I don't think it's going to kill us in the near future.
Interesting low pressure area over South Brazil, but we don't expect any formation so far.
Well...An interesting and pretty low pressure over South Brazil is causing heavy rain and some thunderstorms here today. Good circulation but we don't expect any formation so far. ;D thanks


Image source: Jason Mudd

And NOAA:
Link
Quoting 348. Thrawst:



*cough* last year *cough* and we all know the result of that was.



here some cough stuff loooks like you need some for that bad cold




here you go i hop you feel better
Quoting 361. pablosyn:

Well...An interesting and pretty low pressure over South Brazil is causing heavy rain and some thunderstorms here today. Good circulation but we don't expect any formation so far. ;D thanks


Image source: Jason Mudd

And NOAA:
Link



looked like it had a small window of fourming in too some in now that window is closed
Quoting CaribBoy:


We also had a very dry septamber in 2013 with only 1.1 inch! But yes, this forecast for september 2015 is catastrophic!
Is it going to rain a lot, rain a little or not rain at all in five days there?

September 2015....geez...
Quoting pablosyn:
Well...An interesting and pretty low pressure over South Brazil is causing heavy rain and some thunderstorms here today. Good circulation but we don't expect any formation so far. ;D thanks


Image source: Jason Mudd

And NOAA:
Link
Did you get some rain out of it? How are things looking for the drought there?
Quoting hydrus:
This would be a severe weather set up. I hope the trough will not be that deep if it materializes.

Pretty deep Pacific trough for April. All we can do is hope climatology wins out over models this time.
Lol....I guess people haven't learned have they?..Remember when the Euro and CFSv2 were showing a moderate to strong el nino for 2012 and 2014?......yeah...
Quoting Bluestorm5:


I hope we don't see 2011 season again, period. I went through high risk and tornado emergency on 4/16/11 and that was enough thrill for me around my own house :\
Yes, April, 2011 was a bad month for almost everyone east of the Rockies. I like a good storm as much as anyone, and I've been chasing storms before it was called that, but I never thought I'd see that kind of outbreak in my lifetime.
Quoting 364. sar2401:

Is it going to rain a lot, rain a little or not rain at all in five days there?

September 2015....geez...


A few drops fell on saturday... but overal it's very very dry here! Maybe another 2009 rain wise... We only got 650mm that year.
Resurrection Sunday reading



California's Wasteful Water Habits Run Up Against a Dry Future -- and Past

* Large Hadron Collider restarts after two-year rebuild (with video)


PIOMAS April 2015


*** New ocean energy plan could worsen global warming

* Water crisis pushes Brazil towards solar power at last

*** Theoretical study suggests huge lava tubes could exist on moon



Reef fish can adjust sex ratios as oceans warm

97% of Northwest Alaska bird, mammal species could experience habitat change from warming climate


!!! New evidence shows carbon's importance to ocean life's survival 252 million years ago




!!! Physicists create new molecule with record-setting dipole moment

Want a quick 3-D copy of something? Camera chip for smartphone provides superfine 3-D resolution


* China to step up urbanization along Yangtze River

Obama asks Congress to widen Arctic refuge protections

Duke Energy agrees to pay $2.5 million in coal ash spill settlement


*** China turns away more than half of carbon credit applicants to curb glut


*** This conservative group is tired of being accused of climate denial %u2014 and is fighting back Interesting!

*** Beneath California Crops, Groundwater Crisis Grows

The Snake That's Eating Florida (with video)

Why Politicians Need Science -- Remember: Before the triumph of science, we burned witches at the stake and thought that kings ruled by divine right.


'Blue Blood' Helps Antarctic Octopus Survive in Brutally Cold Waters

Icefin Robotic Submersible Probes Antarctic Depths




Bishop: Natural resources are being snatched from indigenous Mexicans


!!! Environmental activists keep turning up dead in Thailand
371. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Colorado State Edu. (colours are not the original Colorado State Product)
D&T:: Upper right corner
SUBJECT:: Cold core LOW
My 22¢ (Opinion):: For California/drought areas out west to have the best recovery it takes several "cold" LOWs to come down from the Aleutians staying just off shore and redirecting El Niño Modoki (El Niño Modoki)
flows to quench Washington State down towards Lower California to moisten the soil, then months later AtmosRivers (Atmospheric River). (maybe if this continues or reforms during the warmer months the cold core low can become cut off and turn into subtropical or a TS and quench San Diego's / Northern Baja's thirst....a stretch but...)
They'll still be major flooding but the plants FIRST receive nourishing rain water not floods that remove nutrient soils, aquifers are replenished then if THERE WILL BE AtmosRivers the flooding does the least damage though still damage specially to property. If AtmosRiver comes first only benefactors are tabloid news (sadly its now most of the news gathers) and movie makers.
Is the next 49 day wxtrend going to bring "cold" LOWs down from the Aleutians? i know not, so lets Observe.

(remember i try to include 3 links to on informative words so hover over each word or syllables for different links to the same topic)

http://youtu.be/A-yl0Tr1l7E(888x472)

Quoting 349. Bluestorm5:



I hope we don't see 2011 season again, period. I went through high risk and tornado emergency on 4/16/11 and that was enough thrill for me around my own house :\


It's one thing to want to experience weather elsewhere, but I think most people are mutual on the desire to keep their homes. If a hurricane comes to me, hey, nothing I can do and I'll enjoy it for as long as I can, but even better if it swings west or east of me. Yeah?
Quoting 331. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Does our basin look bad??? Does it look good???? Does it look typical???? IMO it looks typical, and in ok shape. People keep saying, oh this season will be inactive, oh this sst setup is the most unfavorable I've ever seen before. IMO we should just wait for time to tell. In fact, there are some hints in the seven day change, that the trade winds are starting to reverse, inducing further warming in the MDR and near Cape Verde. I mean, it's not like the cool pool near Africa extends all the way to the GOM. Let's be real. JMO.


The eastern Atlantic is way too cool. If that doesn't change, all of the action is likely to be in the western Atlantic. Especially the Gulf of Mexico if upper-level winds permit and the ocean stays warm.

As an aside, everybody knows I don't give a **** about the MDR; odds are whatever forms there will recurve east of the US anyway. I'd rather watch the Gulf of Mexico or the Bahamas. The Caribbean works, too.
Hope everyone had a great Easter and Passover. Not too many days left until the start of the East Pacific Hurricane season... And of course right behind that is the Atlantic Hurricane season.

The 3" of snow that fell earlier today has all melted...
Quoting Dakster:
Hope everyone had a great Easter and Passover. Not too many days left until the start of the East Pacific Hurricane season... And of course right behind that is the Atlantic Hurricane season.

The 3" of snow that fell earlier today has all melted...
Dak today was great. I hope you had a great day too. And Yep it's time to get prepared.
Quoting 374. Dakster:

Hope everyone had a great Easter and Passover. Not too many days left until the start of the East Pacific Hurricane season... And of course right behind that is the Atlantic Hurricane season.

The 3" of snow that fell earlier today has all melted...


I don't really celebrate Easter, but for what it's worth it sucked. I have a cold and I had to work. I considered calling off work, but since I've already premeditated the idea of calling off for a possible hurricane chase this summer, I'd rather not if I can avoid it.
377. vis0

Quoting 335. wxmod:

World Carbon Monoxide. MODIS satellite image from NASA.
I'm always amazed to see people casually stroll in front of a flood, like in the movie Jeff Masters posted. Must be trying to be cool, or act casual in the face of danger. How heroic!
I'm posting carbon monoxide imagery because it's likely to kill you and your family. And yet you are ignoring it, or pretending to.


i would emphasize the brain damage e.g. memory loss, specially creative thinking.


UNRELATED BOMBSHELL NEWS which i state is also adding to the "A.D.D." epidemic:: at my blog (so it must be crazy) in the comment to myself #70 & #71.

For now OBSERVE WEATHER, listen to NOAA radio for watches & warnings.
378. vis0

Quoting 317. sar2401:

I'm hoping that the public doesn't start to feel the lack of a PDS watch means that any tornadoes that form won't be a big deal. At one time, we only activated Skywarn spotters and the radio net when there was a tornado watch. We convinced BMX we should activate when there's a severe thunderstorm watch, although at a lower level than a tornado watch. All the spotters were notified, and the ones that were available went to predesignated locations and ate sandwiches and drank coffee until we got warnings. The net controllers were on standby and handling routine traffic from the spotters in the field. This paid off a number of times when we had rain wrapped tornadoes appear when there was just a thunderstorm watch. It would have been impossible to mobilize people otherwise. A severe thunderstorm warning can turn into a lot more in nothing flat, at least here.
a THANK YOU to all involved, ☺THINK you not only get to help people but get to eat sandwich while doing so.☺

All jokes aside a THANK YOU to all involved.
379. JRRP
93S is now 21S.
Quoting 376. KoritheMan:



I don't really celebrate Easter, but for what it's worth it sucked. I have a cold and I had to work. I considered calling off work, but since I've already premeditated the idea of calling off for a possible hurricane chase this summer, I'd rather not if I can avoid it.


I hope you feel better. Sorry it sucked. We celebrate both and really only do so because we have school age children. (or at least that is the only reason I push to do both - I am Jewish my wife is not) Although this year we didn't go or do a Seder. And we still did an Easter thing despite the fact we all got food poisoning the night before... I tend to look at the glass as half full though so I say it was a great Holiday because I was able to spend it with family.
Quoting 381. Dakster:



I hope you feel better. Sorry it sucked. We celebrate both and really only do so because we have school age children. (or at least that is the only reason I push to do both - I am Jewish my wife is not) Although this year we didn't go or do a Seder. And we still did an Easter thing despite the fact we all got food poisoning the night before... I tend to look at the glass as half full though so I say it was a great Holiday because I was able to spend it with family.


Cool. I'm atheist so the religious aspect of the holiday is obviously lost on me. That being said, I do mysteriously enjoy certain liturgical practices within Christianity when Christmas time nears and my local church gets all cozy about it. I'd also very much like to attend a Catholic mass one day. I've literally never done that due to my uniform Protestant/evil Catholic upbringing.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE IKOLA (14-20142015)
10:00 AM RET April 6 2015
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ikola (985 hPa) located at 14.0S 89.3E has 10 minute sustained wind of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 15.0S 90.4E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS 16.4S 91.8E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS 19.6S 95.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS 21.8S 98.1E - 30 knots (Depression Post-Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
The system has intensified rather rapidly, with a warm core on the last multispectral satellite pictures.

The system is located north of a barometric col that lies south of 20.0S. This weakness within the subtropical ridge should maintain within the next few days as a new upper to mid-level trough arrives from the southwest. Between that feature and a building mid-level near equatorial ridge to the northeast, a general southeastwards track is expected for the first part of the forecast period.

The last ECMWF EPS confirms that the system should keep on this southeastward track up to the end of the forecast period.

Improving environmental conditions(decreasing shear, excellent upper level divergence with dual outflow, one to the south-east and one to the northwest, sufficient ocean heat contain) are expected to occur today and should maintain through the next 6 to 12 hours. Tuesday, the favorable windows could be definitively closed (stronger northwesterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures).

Given the current forecast track, the system is expected to cross 90.0E before 1800z today.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 13-20142015
10:00 AM RET April 6 2015
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 13R (997 hPa) located at 15.0S 62.2E has 10 minute sustained wind of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
===================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/06 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 14.6S 60.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 14.5S 59.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS 15.1S 58.6E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS 16.0S 59.2E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================
During the past six hours, the convection has adopted a large central dense overcast configuration. The last available microwave imagery depict a poorly organized internal structure of the system.

The system is within a rather favorable environment now although monsoon inflow is indirect and a easterly constraint (in the same direction than the displacement of the system) may exist north of the upper level ridge. Upper level conditions improve with a building equatorial outflow on Tuesday, then with a second one polarward on Wednesday.

Within the next 36 hours, the system should track west northwestwards or westwards as a transient subtropical ridge pass to the south. Beyond, the ridge weaken and a broad barometric col should take place south of 25.0S. The system should lie within a weak steering environment and could drift southeastwards over the southwestern edge of a near equatorial ridge. The motion is expected to be slow by that time.

There is still significant uncertainties (cf ensemble forecast from ECMWF showing some strong spread) on the timing and the localization of the change in the track, and then also on the rate of intensification.

Severe Weather in Bangladesh. Spring storm season began in Bangladesh today in severe fashion. 24 people were killed over half from the Bogra district in the northern part of the country. There was over 50 injuries.

Time-Lapse, Storm at Bangora Gas Field, 45 sec

Published on Apr 5, 2015
18:00 hrs, 5th April 2015
Bangora Gas Field, Comilla, Bangladesh
385. vis0
CREDIT:: Navy
D&T:: 00 to 168 hrs (~week out) Remember anything over 72 hrs becomes wishi washy and washi(115) wishing during snowstorm season.
image host
Is it me or does washi115 seem nervous 'bout something...for at least a week.
If its as to a trip somewhere, instead of practicing to be nervous - practice how to prepare oneself & children for any serious weather. When practicing drills do them correctly (i'm sure washi115s read patrap's survival links) and practice them via memory as surprise verbal or written tests for the entire family.
Each family member (even kids) create their own questions from official storm preparedness blogs.
The winner of each test gets to ☺ buy washi115, lobster. ☺
The Swirl is bringing me some rain...
387. vis0
This is IKOLA (S. Hemisphere)



06 APR 2015 0830Z (21S)

...not to be confused with Ikea one makes you destroy furniture other destroys homes.
388. vis0


http://s20.postimg.org/8cnzb8hct/for_wxu_dgwv85ke y.jpg

This... doesn't seem normal.

390. vis0
things that make you go hmm...
image host
On Wed sadly if prediction pan out the changes in these charts will affect real lives. Be prepared today.
391. vis0

Quoting 389. KoritheMan:

This... doesn't seem normal.



Quoting 389. KoritheMan:

This... doesn't seem normal.


ya should see the 110 degree left (west) turn its predicted to make
392. vis0
image hostshowalter 20150606-08z
393. vis0
Who is going to get the lift2build-N-squeeze Out Some Precip
image host
Some very heavy rain formed in Tampa yesterday along the sea breeze around 7:00. It gave me 0.51" but the reporting station at the airport had 1.90"! I didn't hear any thunder with it, which surprised me.
Good morning.

Hi nrt,has the file of ATCF for invests changed for 2015?
Quoting 395. tampabaymatt:

Some very heavy rain formed in Tampa yesterday along the sea breeze around 7:00. It gave me 0.51" but the reporting station at the airport had 1.90"! I didn't hear any thunder with it, which surprised me.


I don't want to get ahead of myself but if you look at the models you would think that the Rainy Season is starting here in FL as there is storms in the forecast pretty much everyday thru the end of next week. Only rain free days might be Wednesday & Thursday. Very unusual and if this is indeed the wet season beginning then its about 5 to 6 weeks early.

Precip across FL thru day 10 is all seas breeze driven.

GFS thru day 10
1979 was a busy season with major hurricanes affecting land areas.

However; at that time, the NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS was only 8, with Tropical Storm Henri .. ending the 1979 hurricane season. A subtropical storm was also recorded, making the total number of storms 9. That is what I was talking about! A slower season with fewer named storms, compared to 2004-2005, and 2008, can still produce major hurricane strikes.

Hurricanes David and Frederic teamed up on the Caribbean Islands, with David causing a lot of damage, and both hurricanes slammed the southeastern USA.

After tearing through the Caribbean, Hurricane David hit the Bahamas, and made a brief landfall near Port St. Lucie, FL. It continued northward into Savannah, GA. Frederic was the most devastating for the USA, causing massive damage in the Mobile, AL area. Frederic was the most costly hurricane at the time. I witnessed the hurricane and the damage. Hurricane Bob was also the first storm given a male name in the Atlantic Basin, making landfall in July 1979, along the SE Louisiana coast. Also noteworthy, was Tropical Storm Claudette, in July 1979, which deluged SE Texas with over 40 inches of rain!

27 Tropical depressions in 1979? I don't remember seeing that many forming at that time, but I do see that some sources mention this happening - after the fact. Was this information discovered in the re-analysis of the 1979 hurricane season? That is interesting, and it seems to be a record number of tropical depressions in the Atlantic Basin for any given year.


Quoting 228. hydrus:

1979. I doubt it. 79 was below average ( slightly ) but was actually quite active in the respect there were 27 depressions, which means that things were really moist out there, especially compared to the past few years.



First system formed June 11, 1979
Last system dissipated November 15, 1979
Strongest storm David %u2013 924 mbar (hPa) (27.3 inHg), 175 mph (280 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Total depressions 27
Total storms 9
Hurricanes 5
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3) 2
Total fatalities 2136
Total damage $4.637 billion (1979 USD)


Quoting 204. Stormwatch247:

Good Morning!

It is April 5, 2015. Happy Easter!

The Atlantic hurricane season begins less than 2 months from today.

If the current El Nino trends continue, we still have to be ready. The years 1947, 1957, 1965, 1974, 1975, 1979, 1983, 1991, and 1992, were very slow years in the number of named Atlantic named storms. However, those years also featured major U.S. hurricane landfalls.

My EARLY predictions for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

7-9 Named Storms
5-6 Hurricanes
1-2 Major Hurricanes

Although SSTs in the ATLANTIC BASIN, are lower than some previous years, the Gulf of Mexico is still warm. If all of the atmospheric conditions were favorable, a Gulf Coast hurricane landfall could be possible. We also have to keep a watchful eye on the Atlantic Seaboard.

Let's hope that after dealing with the 2004-2005, and 2008 hyper-active hurricane seasons (with multiple U.S. landfalls), that coastal residents don't let their guard down.

Orlando

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT MON APR 6 2015


.DISCUSSION...

...PROTRACTED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUES THIS WEEK...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE FL EAST COAST HAS SERVED
AS A CONVERGENT AXIS TO PRODUCE SLOW MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS...WHICH
HAVE LARGELY REMAINED CONFINED TO THE MARINE AREA SINCE SUN EVENING.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF BREVARD COUNTY THROUGH
SUNRISE BRINGING SOME LIGHT MEASURED RAIN AMOUNTS FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO CAPE CANAVERAL. AVBL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A MODEST ESE FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AS TROUGH FEATURE WASHES OUT
LINGERING MOISTURE...BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD/SCT PCPN DURING THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON. STEERING LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE WEAK SO BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER IN ANY PCPN PRODUCTION ALONG
WITH AN ISOLD STORM CHC MAINLY WEST OF METRO ORLANDO FROM MID
AFTERNOON ONWARD. TONIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS WL LARGELY DIMINISH BY
10 PM WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT EXPECT PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT INLAND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS
ALONG THE TREASURE CST WITH MILD TEMPS AREAWIDE.

TUE-THU...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GOMEX NEWD ACROSS
FL WHILE THE ATLC RIDGE DOMINATES...ITS AXIS REMAINING NORTH OF THE
CTRL PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP ECFL IN A SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WARM
TEMPS AND LIMITED RAIN CHCS TUE-WED...MAINLY INLAND AND N OF I-4.
MAXES IN THE L-M80S ALONG THE COAST AND U80S WEST OF I-95 WITH MINS
GENERALLY IN THE U60S.

FRI-SUN...SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE SERN CONUS-NORTH FL
FRI NIGHT-SAT FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE MINOR RIPPLES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL FLATTEN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY...WITH A WEAK COOL
FRONT PUSHING DOWN INTO NORTH FL BY SUN. COMBINATION OF INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH LOWERING H50 HEIGHTS WILL SPELL AN INCREASE
IN THE CHC FOR SHRA/TS...MAINLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE (HIGHEST POPS
NORTH) THROUGH THE XTD RANGE. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHG IN TEMPS VERSUS
THE SHORT RANGE AS THE "PRE-SUMMER" PATTERN KEEPS MAX TEMPS A COUPLE
CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL AND MINS ROUGHLY 2-3 CATS ON THE HIGH SIDE.
The strength of this warm pool now supports a strong El-Nino. We are right at where we were last year at 1.8C except we already have El-Nino in place this time around.



Quoting 397. StormTrackerScott:



I don't want to get ahead of myself but if you look at the models you would think that the Rainy Season is starting here in FL as there is storms in the forecast pretty much everyday thru the end of next week. Only rain free days might be Wednesday & Thursday. Very unusual and if this is indeed the wet season beginning then its about 5 to 6 weeks early.

Precip across FL thru day 10 is all seas breeze driven.

GFS thru day 10



We are basically in a summer-like pattern already. For instance, yesterday got to 88 degrees at my location with a dewpoint in the high 60s. I went outside around 4:30 and it was extremely humid; it felt like a summer day. It didn't surprise me to see the line of heavy rain form along the seabreeze. It might happen again today. 1.90" of rain from a seabreeze storm in early April at the Tampa reporting station is crazy.
Some of the NMME models are updating for April and it appears this ENSO is off to the races with not just rivaling 1997 but some surpassing 1997. Again Spring Barrier but these increases each month are a little concerning.
Quoting 402. tampabaymatt:



We are basically in a summer-like pattern already. For instance, yesterday got to 88 degrees at my location with a dewpoint in the high 60s. I went outside around 4:30 and it was extremely humid; it felt like a summer day. It didn't surprise me to see the line of heavy rain form along the seabreeze. It might happen again today. 1.90" of rain from a seabreeze storm in early April at the Tampa reporting station is crazy.


Outside of Wednesday & Thursday there is rain in the forecast everyday infact this weekend rain could be widespread with many areas getting 1" to 3" of rain.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Orlando



The East Asian Rule dictates that a nice cooldown is on the way sometime next week!


Tampa Bay area
407. Hugo5
Good day fellow bloggers!

First looking at the West PAC since my last entry. Seems that the storm that I said would be there is there! Unfortunately Haisen will die. It was a good little storm and will be missed. Maysak will die too, as it has hit colder waters and makes its run north over korea. Nothing else significant north of the equator.

South of the equator is were things are really heating up now. we have three separate lows just east of PNG that are flaring up and will amount to something in the next few days. These areas are the next storms to watch, each could develop into something big. mind you there is still a lot of time on these, but I would not be surprised. The one that I believe will be developing first is north of Fiji.

Indian Ocean. Surprises, both systems that I had been watching developed into something, though the surprise is they are tropical in nature. I expected both to have traveled further south and get swept into one of the frontal systems and go to Australia, just not as tropical cyclones. Ironically, in my last post they did it in the same timeframe that I laid out, that they should be watched for and direction they would head. The next thing to watch would be a developing low north of the Equator in the Indian Ocean south of India, its gonna be a couple of days before it looks like anything, but it will be the next system to watch in the Indian Ocean.

In the atlantic alls quite. the High pressure trend pushing cooler surface temps continues, and instability is still low, nothing gonna happen for a while. Unfortunately the only interesting things in the atlantic are the low pressure systems south of the equator, the strongest not being tropical in nature.

EPAC, is still quite. the high pressure that is just south of panama is still there blowing cooler surface temps. Later in the quite season of EPAC this should be analyzed, in my opinion.

Thanks again for your time, Hugo5 out. Like this if it was educational.


The circulation of Maysak is gone. So don't know why they still have it as a depression.
409. Hugo5
Quoting 408. weatherbro:



The circulation of Maysak is gone. So don't know why they still have it as a depression.


It is still there on the ground level, it's just a naked swirl now though.
good morning boys and girls....spring is rearing its ugly head here....highs in the mid 80's.........but with that comes the wind.......blowing at about 35 today with gusts above 45........my sinuses will complain about the blowing dust
Quoting 410. ricderr:

good morning boys and girls....spring is rearing its ugly head here....highs in the mid 80's.........but with that comes the wind.......blowing at about 35 today with gusts above 45........my sinuses will complain about the blowing dust



Good morning Ric. Summer is rearing its ugly head here in FL....in early April.
Our first Spring since moving to NW Florida... surprised that the pollen is almost as intense as it was in Mid TN... thought with all the water around us that it would be much less.. of course if the winds are from the east all bets or off in this regards... getting to experience the joys of Spring Breakers since we are just west of Panama City.. the locals have a love/hate going with them since they are loud and make a mess, but support the economy for the rest of the year!
Here's my iPhone shot of Friday evening's moon rise over the beach..

Good morning Ric. Summer is rearing its ugly head here in FL....in early April.


i've seen that....shoot south florida has been hot almost all winter....they've just been bone dry....our spring temps are nice....it's just my eyes will cry for the next two months and my nose will run like a faucet due to the dust from wind...then ungodly hot in june (but it's a dry heat)....20 plus days of temps in the triple digits...and then we moderate to hot days and cool nights.....but i can't complain too much......we didn't see temps drop into the teens at all....and averaged above normal all winter....i typically wear shorts to the office mid april through the first of october and have been able to wear them since the beginning of march....
414. JRRP
Harold Wanless, a leading climatologist and geologist based at the University of Miami, returns to the “This Can’t Be Happening!” program after a year to revisit his claim that global warming and sea level rise are going to be much more dramatic than the consensus predictions of the UN Climate Committee, NASA, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and other groups. With recent reports of faster melting on Greenland and in both the Eastern and Western Antarctic, Wanless tells host Dave Lindorff we are now facing a catastrophe that could see sea levels rising by more than 20 feet by the end of the century, and perhaps, if methane begins seriously erupting from the Arctic seafloor, even reduced oxygen levels that could threaten mammals, including humans.

Link
Flood Insurance Rates To Increase April 1 for Thousands of Homes Along U.S. Coastline

Flood insurance rates are set to skyrocket when a new bill goes into effect on April 1. Known as the Homeowner Flood Insurance Affordability Act of 2014 (HFIAA), it's going to drive the prices of flood insurance plans through the roof for residents of all U.S. coastlines.

How much could they increase? In some areas where flood maps show maximum risk, premiums that were previously $500 could be raised to as much as $20,000 a year or more, according to estimates released in 2013....................................... Lawmakers say there's one big reason for this new law: FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is broke. It's $24 billion in debt and only able to pay on its interest at this point, and only collected about $4 billion in premiums while insuring nearly $1.5 trillion in property, according to a Government Accountability Office report.


Link
Quoting 415. ColoradoBob1:

Harold Wanless, a leading climatologist and geologist based at the University of Miami, returns to the “This Can’t Be Happening!” program after a year to revisit his claim that global warming and sea level rise are going to be much more dramatic than the consensus predictions of the UN Climate Committee, NASA, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and other groups. With recent reports of faster melting on Greenland and in both the Eastern and Western Antarctic, Wanless tells host Dave Lindorff we are now facing a catastrophe that could see sea levels rising by more than 20 feet by the end of the century, and perhaps, if methane begins seriously erupting from the Arctic seafloor, even reduced oxygen levels that could threaten mammals, including humans.

Link


Anyone who thinks that methane bubbling out of hydrates is going to reduce oxygen levels 'that could threaten mammals, including humans' is a few bananas short of a bunch.
Quoting 412. JNFlori30A:

Our first Spring since moving to NW Florida... surprised that the pollen is almost as intense as it was in Mid TN... thought with all the water around us that it would be much less.. of course if the winds are from the east all bets or off in this regards... getting to experience the joys of Spring Breakers since we are just west of Panama City.. the locals have a love/hate going with them since they are loud and make a mess, but support the economy for the rest of the year!
Here's my iPhone shot of Friday evening's moon rise over the beach..



I live in the area (closer to Ft. Walton Beach) and just last Thursday I had dinner out at "The Back Porch" in Destin. Couldn't be more crowded. Although I have to admit it was an exciting atmosphere and since it was just the two of us, we got seated maybe a littler quicker.

Usually though I am oblivious as to what's going on along the beaches since as a local, we hardly go.
Quoting 398. Stormwatch247:

1979 WAS a busy season with major hurricanes affecting land areas.

However; at that time, the NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS was only 8, with Tropical Storm Henri .. ending the 1979 hurricane season. A subtropical storm was also recorded, making the total number of storms 9. That is what I was talking about! A slower season with fewer named storms, compared to 2004-2005, and 2008, can still produce major hurricane strikes.

Hurricanes David and Frederic teamed up on the Caribbean Islands, with David causing a lot of damage, and both hurricanes slammed the southeastern USA.

After tearing through the Caribbean, Hurricane David hit the Bahamas, and made a brief landfall near Port St. Lucie, FL. It continued northward into Savannah, GA. Frederic was the most devastating for the USA, causing massive damage in the Mobile, AL area. Frederic was the most costly hurricane at the time. I witnessed the hurricane and the damage. Hurricane Bob was also the first storm given a male name in the Atlantic Basin, making landfall in July 1979, along the SE Louisiana coast. Also noteworthy, was Tropical Storm Claudette, in July 1979, which deluged SE Texas with over 40 inches of rain!

27 Tropical depressions in 1979? I don't remember seeing that many forming at that time, but I do see that some sources mention this happening - after the fact. Was this information discovered in the re-analysis of the 1979 hurricane season? That is interesting, and it seems to be a record number of tropical depressions in the Atlantic Basin for any given year.




Quoting 204. Stormwatch247:

Good Morning!

It is April 5, 2015. Happy Easter!

The Atlantic hurricane season begins less than 2 months from today.

If the current El Nino trends continue, we still have to be ready. The years 1947, 1957, 1965, 1974, 1975, 1979, 1983, 1991, and 1992, were very slow years in the number of named Atlantic named storms. However, those years also featured major U.S. hurricane landfalls.

My EARLY predictions for the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

7-9 Named Storms
5-6 Hurricanes
1-2 Major Hurricanes

Although SSTs in the ATLANTIC BASIN, are lower than some previous years, the Gulf of Mexico is still warm. If all of the atmospheric conditions were favorable, a Gulf Coast hurricane landfall could be possible. We also have to keep a watchful eye on the Atlantic Seaboard.

Let's hope that after dealing with the 2004-2005, and 2008 hyper-active hurricane seasons (with multiple U.S. landfalls), that coastal residents don't let their guard down.


Yep. I remember the 1979 season well. I was on Lake Okeechobee near Moore Haven when David hit. It was impressive. David had a large wind field, and gusts were 90 mph at our location. Frederic was being smothered by Davids outflow and moved over the entire length of the Greater Antilles ( Cuba and Hispaniola ) , Mets were saying that Fred might dissipate, but we saw what happened there. I noticed that sub tropical storms are not counted in to the ACE, which surprised me given they are powerful at times.
I should mention that Hispaniola took a double hit that year with many fatalities.
Frederic.


David., a few hours after Florida landfall


Quoting 417. yonzabam:



Anyone who thinks that methane bubbling out of hydrates is going to reduce oxygen levels 'that could threaten mammals, including humans' is a few bananas short of a bunch.


Clearly your more than a few bananas short.
This is NOT the atmosphere of my Fathers, nor my yute'.

Quoting 394. tampabaymatt:




WPC loves to throw around huge 2-4 inch rain swaths, while some smaller areas may get that much, I'm willing to bet that no surface area anywhere near that large will see 3-4 inches. If the WPC was most of the time right then we would be hearing about flooding a lot more as they depict things like this on a regular basis.
Quoting 420. CaneWatcher1:



Clearly your more than a few bananas short.


Says the guy who can't spell you're.
Quoting 418. opal92nwf:


I live in the area (closer to Ft. Walton Beach) and just last Thursday I had dinner out at "The Back Porch" in Destin. Couldn't be more crowded. Although I have to admit it was an exciting atmosphere and since it was just the two of us, we got seated maybe a littler quicker.

Usually though I am oblivious as to what's going on along the beaches since as a local, we hardly go.
Hey Opal... We have noticed that about 90% of our local friends don't have much to do with the beach unless they have friends or family visiting the area.. I think that since my wife and I grew up close to the beaches in SoCal we find much enjoyment spending time the sand/in the water year round. We enjoy meeting people from all over the world on 'our' 3 mile stretch of the beach and since we are in family-friendly Walton County most of the craziness happens elsewhere! I am looking forward to the start up of the thunderstorms this year.. what month will those get going?
Quoting 365. sar2401:

Did you get some rain out of it? How are things looking for the drought there?


We received a half inch of rain in the last 24 hours. Now the rains are isolated and the sun is appearing. The wind is moderate. I live in the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre. Here in southern Brazil we are not dry, but we are enfrentanto a drier period already complete one month, probably happened due to the cooling of the Niño 1.2 region. Temperature are pleasant with a little cold. Ja drought is even in the Southeast and Northeast of Brazil, in regions such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Hinterland Northeast and etc. In the picture we have low 17 and high 27 today, but we expect that the high won't exceed the 25ºC today.


Source of website:
Link
...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
428. JRRP
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 1 minHace 1 minuto
Latest CFSv2 prediction calling for a robust El Nino event by August-October. Ensemble mean ~1.6C for Nino 3.4.