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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

A quiet weekend for the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:55 PM GMT on October 13, 2006

The disturbance just north of Puerto Rico (90L) has been torn apart by wind shear and is no longer a threat to develop. Tropical Depression 4-C that was headed towards Hawaii has been torn apart by wind shear and is no longer a threat to the islands. An area of disturbed weather over the western Gulf of Mexico is under 40 knots of wind shear, and is not a threat to develop through Sunday. By Monday, however, shear is expected to drop significantly in the Gulf, and we will have to watch this area for development.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models continue to show the possibility of a tropical storm forming along the Pacific coast of Mexico early next week, possibly from the remains of Tropical Storm Olivia.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters
first snowman in Battle Lake
first snowman in Battle Lake
First snow of the season in Battle Lake, MN, October 11, 2006
Snow in Fall
Snow in Fall
Earliest recorded measurable snowfall ever for SW Michigan since records have been kept.
October snow in Buffalo
October snow in Buffalo

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Whatever that blob is it is headed towards FL
the blob in GOM is pretty big :o)Link
503. KRL
Hmmm, sure looks like one, even though it probably won't be. LOL

GOM
One Scenario..Link
the trend is down..Link
The tendency is almost..RApid..Link
SSTs are sustainable ..plus 3.5Link
Winds and the other from 42002..Link
This should be noted..Link
Help me out here please.....if there are such strong upper level winds, why hasn't this thing sheared apart?

It looks as well as it did this morning.

And Pat, that NAM has it headed to the upper Texas Coast.....
..Invest?...
the shear relaxing..its a vigorous low seems too..plus it looks to be initalizing a lil more east..
And one more thing....the Navy has labeled less impressive systems as invests, why the hesitation here? Not enough info? Not strong enough sustained winds?
Lets fire up the Bullpen just to get the jewelry rattling!..LOL
Im declaring it a USMC invest...GOM/14..for the Date
The Quikscat & the synoptic look..along with the pressure trend and tendency..would validate.So ill fix me a lil Bloody Mary to Celebrate.
Why are the models predicting the blob in the GOM moving it towards Louisiana or Texas, not Florida??

The wind pattern should be directing this towards the southern edge of Florida. Any thoughts.
Afternoon all seems we shall be mustering a good rain in GOM
Heres why hurrycain..Notice the Big ULL over Southern California..the flow around it will pull the GOM system N..then it will ride NNE..across the GOM gulf Coast..Link
The Houston Metro area has an 80% chance of rain tomorrow and 70% Monday.....or I backwards that...anyway, you get the point.
Hey sandcrab..how goes it..
522. HCW
Shear doesn't look that bad in the GOM and I expect us to get a weak tropical storm out of this .


Link
The surface forcast shows that the system will go onshore around Tex/La and cause heavy rain. In is shown to be there in 24-36 hours
Doing good Patrap did you get the mail?
Evening everybody! Very impressive for a "blob" indeed - looks like a depression at this time - and Diurnal may assist. Hopefully that substantial drop in wind shear doesn't happen earlier than forecast -

I need a bit help... I see over the entire globe a massive modification of the normality in movement of airmasses, but I clearly not understanding what exactly is happening....
A little help, please...
Link
Hi Pat, Sandcrab and 27...have a good evening...game time here at last! see ya tomorrow...left a message for ya 27 on your blog.
This is a system trying to get better organised,by the hour..The situ is improving..for a deepening..if it continues into the diuranl
Buoy 42002 is reporting falling pressures, increasing wave heights, and winds of up to 21kts and increasing - wonder what the next outlook will say?
As I'm seeing in the gif posted by Kyle, is there a clockwise rotation of the blob in GOM?
Here the SSTs data..from the IVY league boys..Link
heres 42002..Link
wind sear not to bad for devolopement probaly a weak TS soonLink
neitrino - Probably caused by wind shear, but there's a low and counter-clockwise rotation there as well. That clockwise motion may be assisting in helping organization - it's hard to believe it looks like this with 30kt wind shear. I can hardly notice the shear!
Heres the Quickscat..pass..LinkThey put them on the Buoys page too
This is creepy...
Trick or no Treat..
Couldn't have said it better Patrap - If this thing becomes a hurricane (god forbid), they should probably start tropical development under strong shear learning from scratch! LOL - this "blob" is defying the rules of mother nature!
wow what evere that is in the gulf it looks like a vary stong TS to me
yea it could become are next invest it looks
very impressive and been sustnaing itself for
the last 24 hours so it maybe be already close
to a TD
Worth a look..here..Link
Shear is etheral..it comes sometimes and wanes quicker than forecast.Sandcrab..what you hearing ?..
Not strong Taz - it looks more like a strong depression or minimal storm to me. Check out these pics!





Plan of action would be Sunday/Mon..for many..If this gets named.Sticky wicky for forecasters at NHC..but the Rules call for lotsa movement if it reaches TStorm cat..Am I right sandcrab?
Posted By: StormW at 11:34 PM GMT on October 14, 2006.

Posted By: Patrap at 11:31 PM GMT on October 14, 2006.

This is creepy...

Yeah pat, I hear ya! You know, I did see a system back in 2004, don't remember which one, but I do remember it developed in the face of 30 kts of shear to its north.


That would be this storm
also remember it was only a 40knt TS
wow this looks like a hurricane or a TS what di you all think
lol
551. eye
Is that an eye forming?
The locals dont say much at 4:30 pm cst..Link
Thanks teddy,,that was a right loaded wet one..
Here's another view of the convection in the GOM....CLICK HERE for a 24frame loop of this image.
evening all.
i'm just a weather n00B, but i read Dr Master's blog each day and regularly read this forum to get a handle on what's out there...

maybe its just the way it's framed there in the gulf, or how it looks in the photo's but that blob looks vey impressive to me, and i was curious which way it was headed and if it would intensify in the current shear conditions. i would guess florida and the shear would hold it down....no???

i thought the good Dr said quiet weekend.lol
Patrap, mail at email addy
am sorry but this looks like a hurricane to me

i nevere seen a blod do any thing like this be for
I already asked this, but I'll try again.

According to the NHC it is under 30 knots of shear now......How can it maintain it's convection under that much shear?
NO EYE NO EYE it is not even an invest yet according to the navy and this thing is huge too larger then Florida
The NHC must be very, very sure that this GOM blob won't develop. If it does develop, their nonchalance about this system will look very foolish in hindsight - in the face of impressive satellite presentations and other indicators of development.

This storm whatever it becomes and wherever it goes will not be a fish! And of course, the GOM is known for explosive development.
Hard to imagine that the NHC or NAVY won't have the GOM blob as an INVEST.You gotta assume they know what they're doing. The models move it north but it looks like its moving ene to me. Maybe it's gonna decouple, high level clouds blow off to the east, while the LLC (if there is one, hard to be sure without RECON in there) moves north. It sure looks like a TP at this point to me tho.Real curious to see the next TPC outlook.
not seeing it sandcrab..
patrap u got mail
i am starting to think what shear lol
Thanx cyberteddy.
sent it to your other email not wu
could it be possible that the NHC was very embarrised
last year with there prediction of 12 storms
and each of the 28 storms that formed
took them by suprise sooo... there not even
making blobs invest, invest to TD's, TS to hurricanes. And they said Chris wouldent do anythin but disspate and never form
nogaps..solutionLink
This blob in the GOM is under very unfavorable conditions for tropical cyclone development and will likely fizzle out by morning.
Okay Sand got all that..looks wet..LOL
hey hurricane what do you think of this thing coming to Miami?
NAM scenario..Link
Id leave now..avoid the 07 rush..LOL
Looks like a wet time on the coast in the future.
NHC is taking their time on the discussion - I'm anxious to see what it will say!
Guys, this thing has no chance. Never did. Not when it is under anywhere between 30-70 kts of shear which is in the GOM right now.

Not even worth discussing.
Right sand..I think we will still be here come Tuesday...LOL
LOL..Ive seen bigger discussion in here over 2 day expired invest..sounds like Fla..talking..again..LOL
Nash, afternoon looks like a good rain to me.
Yep Crab. Rain, but nothing more.
Nash....I swear you were eavesdropping....I just said to 27W that Nash was right.. .he predicted two weeks ago that the GOM would have one more hurrah...
Riders on the Storm...Link
Nash, hows the foot ,ribs and hope nothing new.lol
nash28
u didnt notice did you that it has been under
shear already for 24 hours and it is getting
stronger!
Patrap been calling this one since Monday,See the Blog.....and the Doc..has been on top of things...from Ann Arbor.
Hello me lil gator how are ya
Hi Sandcrab...I said hello earlier, but you did not hear me! lol
Ive been stateing all afternoon long that conditions across the GOM are not conducive for tropical development.This will likely bring heavy rains to parts of the gulfcoast. Adrian
The deal is that this in non-tropical in nature and anything that may develop is under too hostile of conditions for it to even be a concern.

And the ankle is healing nicely, thank you:-)
591. Relix
It will die by shear over the night.. just wait and see.
We going to Manchac to Middendorfs for Catfish & Flounder..Back later for Alka seltzer...and nightcap...Keep ya eyes on that one.Its a gamer...
Sorry gator my loss.lol
Past 8:05EDT on my watch - where's the discussion?! LOL
Enjoy Pat
Just stopping by Gator. Gotta do dishes now and watch movie before bed. Yeah, I am lame. I go to bed on the weekends at 9pm.
Game is on....gotta go.
Nothing lame in that Nash I do the same thing most times.lol
Its your age Nash....lmao
Tigers in World Series.

Whoever comes out of the NL will probably have their rear ends handed to them.

Just a prediction....
heres the GOM 42002 Buoy...noteLink the quickscat pass..Whats that..yes dear Im coming...
Thanks Gator LOL:-)
Hi Gator, bye Gator...lol
hey everyone! wow the gom blob blew up a bit. what are some of the charecteristics that show it is possibly developing? thanks!
that thig in the gulf looks vary good for so march shear dont you think


what high winds shear if there was vary high wind shear that thig will not be there right now

the hell with the nhc
heatmeiser-

sorry to ignore your questions, I'm not knowledgable enough to answer...maybe address it to Hurricane23....gotta go...welcome to WU
Geez Nash you are what 30 something? lol
LOL..here it is ..enjoy the song...tooLinkThe buoy
Tropical Depression 4 in the Central Pacific is looking a bit like 90L to me! LOL

Later Gator
Has anyone got the 8:05pm discussion yet?
Taz- I think the NHC has this one down pretty well my friend. First, the conditions are brutal. Yes, something non-tropical may survive (hybrid system) but even if it does, it will be nothing to get worked up over.

If this were July, we'd have issues. We're in mid October, and unlike last year, our synoptic pattern is more like December.
kylejourdan2006 naked swirl there...
Help!...Link
8:05PM Discussion...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 24N80W 23N86W AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
TO NE MEXICO ALONG 25N92W 24N98W. A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
91W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT BY SUNDAY
EVENING FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO MOVE N TO THE LOUISIANA
COAST AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE W
GULF W OF 90W. EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Hmm...I've just been looking around, and I don't see much that supports that this low is "non-tropical in nature". I respect nash's opinions very much, but not everyone's perfect!
617. eye
nash, better get use to staying up past 9pm with college around the corner. Especially with MEA major, basically engineering but harder.
Thank you Nash for your fine analysis. Someone who really knows his tropical weather. Good job man!! You will make FSU proud. Eventhough I am a Gator!!..LOL
Just adding this...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER MEXICO TO
THE E PACIFIC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY
CONFINED TO INLAND MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
95W-100W.


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 24W S OF
16N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N
BETWEEN 21W-26W.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W S OF 23N MOVING W
10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL WELL-DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 37W-44W. A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AIR. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
8N-11N BETWEEN 74W-76W MAINLY DUE TO THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER MEXICO TO
THE E PACIFIC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY
CONFINED TO INLAND MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
95W-100W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 8N40W 10N50W 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 11W-14W...AND FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 12W-17W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 25W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 24N80W 23N86W AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
TO NE MEXICO ALONG 25N92W 24N98W. A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
91W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY WLY FLOW IS OVER THE
GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT BY SUNDAY
EVENING FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO MOVE N TO THE LOUISIANA
COAST AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SE SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE W
GULF W OF 90W. EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Thanks 23 - That really isn't much different than the 2:05pm one, and they really aren't much help for any development (possible or not), because they normally just copy what the last outlook says. Nonetheless, it's better than nothing! :)
if there is strong westerly shear, then why is it banding, even some in the western side?
link
623. eye
hasnt the Dr been mentioning something about a non tropical low developing for days now, not shocking that now a non tropical low might be forming.
I don't know what all the terms mean, but this is what the local NWS mets are saying.


FXUS64 KEWX 142359
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
659 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS
WHERE RAIN IS FALLING. IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFT 04-06Z. THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006)

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH WITH SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES WILL AVERAGE THEM. AREA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD
OF SHORT-WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM MEXICO AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS LIFT STRENGTHENS. PWS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2
AND 2.5 INCHES LEADING TO A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. THE EVOLUTION OF
A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW AND WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINS
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS UNCERTAINTY LEADS TO KEEPING FLASH
FLOOD WATCH OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW, HOWEVER EXPECT WATCH WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUED FOR AT LEAST A PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. SHOULD WARM
FRONT MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, SEVERE STORMS MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS NEAREST THE COASTAL PLAINS,
ALTHOUGH FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION. RAINS WILL GENERALLY END
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH
LEAVES A SHEAR AXIS AND POSSIBLY A DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN HALF
FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF MAV/MEX GUIDANCE, EXCEPT WENT 3 TO 5 DEGREES
WARMER ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY DUE SOUTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
You're right eye - Dr. Masters has been saying that, but this doesn't look really non-tropical. I think the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico have somewhat helped it acquire a few tropical characteristics - but like 90L, I think this is just a hype of excitement, and nothing but a rain event.
626. eye
kyle, good to see that you are not predicting a major....lol
That's basically saying that it's going to rain heavy, with possible severe storms, in southern Texas.
Eye... it'll be a cat 4 by monday.
here is latest severe outlook for Tx coast from NWS:...LOWER TX COAST...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TX AS A
WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LOW ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE SWRN STATES
TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NNEWD
ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST. STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
JET SHOULD RESULT IN MCS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITH STORM COVERAGE
INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS SOUTH TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO INCREASE SHEAR PROFILES WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LATE TONIGHT SHOWING 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES REACHING ABOUT 25
KT ACROSS SOUTH TX. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S
F MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT
MOVE NWD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.
SAT - If you're referring to the aviation section, VFR is "visual flight rules", meaning that the pilots can see the ground or that they have clear space above the clouds, and MVFR is "minimal visual flight rules", meaning that clouds may cause limited visibility for pilots.
with nwd moving storms, there must be some circulation.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 142117
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA APPEARS TO BE FORMING JUST EAST OF TUXPAN
MEXICO...HOWEVER TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO...IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL...AND TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
A Tropical Depression in the Gulf! The NHC has it all wrong!"

OK back to reality. Yes a blob of tropical moisture in the SW Gulf. High wind shear across the Northern Gulf. Tropical moisture into high wind shear as it it pulled north by a strong upper level trough moving into west Texas.

A strong low-level jet (60-80 knots) will develop over East Texas and western Lousiana Sunday night/Monday morning as the upper level trough pushes eastward and tightens the pressure gradient. Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds is likely with very heavy rains across Texas and Lousiana as the tropical moisture is pulled northward ahead of the trough.

No tropical depression, no tropical storm, no anything. By the way did anyone notice that the cloud tops over the tropical blob are starting to warm up (could they be weakening as they get sheared to the east?)

OK, back to the fantasy world.
Kyle,

I wan't too concerned with the aviation since I plan on staying firmly on the ground lol.

I was referring to terms like warm advection pattern, short wave, pws etc. Our local mets have been saying for several days that we could have heavy rains from the combo of these systems.

i dont no about any of you but i am keeping my eye on this thing tonight and see if this can last overe night if it can it could be are next 92L and dr m did say the the wind shaer could drop vary low by monday this may have a ch at being are next 92L but whats see how it dos overe night


you can say what you want to say on this blod


but this to tell you i am watch this blod as wind shaer is forcast to drop!
anyone here?
lol
637. HCW
From Wxman 57 on khou

wxman57



Joined: 23 Apr 2005
Posts: 609
Location: Houston
Posted: Sat Oct 14, 2006 10:52 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is the kind of system that can immediately be upgraded to a TS. Note that some of the buoys north of the system are reporting near TS-force winds this afternoon. But this will NOT be a wind threat for inland areas across SE TX or south LA. It's a rainfall event for inland areas. Offshore, however, winds could gust to 60-70 kts in squalls.


Link
638. HCW
I don't see the high shear that the NHC keeps talking about.


To HCW and all others that can't find the wind shear the NHC is talking about, see the attached link:

Link
HCW am with you
641. HCW
The shear is way away from our low pressure and it has a chance to become a TD over the next 24 hours.
i dont like looking at that map it dos not telll the oh thing on whats going on
: HCW am with you all the way
Listen HCW, I know I would waste my time trying to convince you otherwise. But I am seeing a lot of shear from the west already starting to push away the cloud tops based on the satellite loops I am seeing.
645. HCW
There is some light west shear over it but alot less than what's over invest 90L. It's certainly possible that we could see a tropical system out of this . Link
646. N3EG
Hellsniper223 - it'll be a cat 4 all right...on the Homer-Simpson scale...
647. HCW
INVEST 92L now is up GOM


Link
the convection has weakened a little in the 1h 15min period.
Hi, newbie here! I see we have an invest 92L now acording to the Navy site. I'm traveling next week and wanted to here some opinions...IF ....it were to form into anything what would be the most likely path.
650. HCW
model runs for 92L are up. Have a good weekened


Link
I am so sick and tired of this hot weather. It's OCTOBER, for pity's sake. It shouldn't be in the 90's this time of year.

We need a cold front to come through like we had last year post-Wilma.
I HAVE UPDATED MY BLOG!!!
new blog up!
OK HCW,

I guess the NHC has it all wrong and you are right. They just don't see want you wish for.



Link
Slinky, Dr. M has new blog up for 92L.
Wow thats what happens when your board.......
Very funny... You know that this is not the current blog... it is VERY annoying to see his (or any other) blog disappear from the blog directory...
Sorry MP........