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A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:51 PM GMT on October 26, 2009

There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

speaking of vomit, anyone seen WS/JFV?
Link

looks like the west coast is in for some rain and the jet stream looks as though it's going to come into CA
Thanks! I was a kicker. But still :)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Thanks! I was a kicker. But still :)


Hey, kickers are important too, I'm actually friends with our kicker here at Purdue (Carson Wiggs) he has the longest kick in the NCAA this season at 59 yards, he also has a 55 yarder too
Quoting stormwatcherCI:

This is the best I can do.


Hey, that's pretty good. Hope it stays away from the Philippines. They have had enough!
Looks like isentropic lift is on the rise for me :)
Quoting tornadodude:


vomit? whats that? ;)

there are some mountain snows:


I've vomited too many times to count. When you think about it, it's actually the healthy thing to do, but for some reason its frowned on by society. If there's something in your body that shouldn't be there (Alcohol, food gone bad, etc) it should be expelled before it's processed by your body and does damage.

I wish i lived the phillipenes right now, i'd have an excuse to drink and eat crow-burgers. but I'm not and I'm doing it anyway. :)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Looks like isentropic lift is on the rise for me :)


isentropic lift
Very cool! Anything over 55 is A+! I know who he is :)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
˙pɐǝɥ ʎɯ uo ƃuıpuɐʇs ǝlıɥʍ ƃuıdʎʇ ɯɐ ı os˙˙˙uʍop ǝpısdn pǝuɹnʇ ǝlıɯs ɐ ʇsnɾ sı uʍoɹɟ ɐ ʇɐɥʇ ɹǝılɹɐǝ pǝʇsod ɹɐɥʇoɹƃ˙˙˙ɐuɐu puɐ ʇʇɐɯ `ɹɐɥʇoɹƃ ıɥ


¡bo1q ʇıɯoʌ
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Very cool! Anything over 55 is A+! I know who he is :)


oh cool! he is a cool guy, and I definitely think he has a decent shot at the NFL, he is a sophomore
ahh! stop making me read from right to left x.x


Looks like we still have a spin in the sw Caribbean but not much else.
We have a cool layer over us, with a front maybe ~150 miles to our south, not depicted on our map--but we were on the cool side of a 15 degree temperature spread. The warm front should really set up towards dawn and work north over us tomorrow--we may get steady stratiform rains for a while, then breaking into thundery showers.
Quoting Dakster:
speaking of vomit, anyone seen WS/JFV?
Not for quite a while...
FKPQ30 RJTD 270000
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20091027/0000Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: LUPIT
NR: 50
PSN: N3840 E14610
MOV: NNE 55KT
C: 970HPA
MAX WIND: 60KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 27/0600Z N4205 E14910
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 65KT

FCST PSN +12HR: 27/1200Z N4500 E15150 EXTRATROPICAL LOW
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 27/1800Z N4700 E15535
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 28/0000Z N4820 E16000 EXTRATROPICAL LOW
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 70KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20091027/0600Z =

--
forecasted to be upgraded to strong typhoon again by the JMA before declaring it extratropical
FKPQ31 RJTD 270000
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20091027/0000Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
NR: 2
PSN: N1400 E14505
MOV: W 15KT
C: 1002HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 27/0600Z N1420 E14335
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 35KT

FCST PSN +12HR: 27/1200Z N1450 E14205
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 27/1800Z N1510 E14035
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 28/0000Z N1535 E13905
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20091027/0600Z =

---
23W aka TD 25 is suppose to be named in 6 hours or less
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Looks like we still have a spin in the sw Caribbean but not much else.


however, no convection.



¡uoıʇɔǝʌuoɔ ou 'ɹǝʌǝʍoɥ 'uɐǝɯ ı 'ʇıɐʍ
Quoting hydrus:
Not for quite a while...


IP ban?
522. xcool


If there are no posts on this blog tomorrow, I do not want anyone on here tonight asking why. If you're going to talk football, at least talk about the "Snow Bowl" game. This way we shall stay safe.
Quoting tornadodude:


IP ban?
He told me on Facebook he had an indefinite(not sure if this is the word I want but doesn't know the length)
Quoting Grothar:
If there are no posts on this blog tomorrow, I do not want anyone on here tonight asking why. If you're going to talk football, at least talk about the "Snow Bowl" game. This way we shall stay safe.


How about the icebowl? Dallas and Greenbay?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He told me on Facebook he had an indefinite(not sure if this is the word I want but doesn't know the length)


oh ok
Wow. There is not even one post that I feel I need to comment on, contradict, or reply to. That's pretty amazing, given the range of topics.... lol

How's everybody? I had a rough day, including a four-hour meeting that ended after 8 p.m. Plus the weather was miserable hot again, with only the occasional trade wind breeze to keep one from feeling like one was suffocating. It felt like September instead of practically November. It would be nice to get at least some of that frontal energy here before the week is out....

Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow. There is not even one post that I feel I need to comment on, contradict, or reply to. That's pretty amazing, given the range of topics.... lol

How's everybody? I had a rough day, including a four-hour meeting that ended after 8 p.m. Plus the weather was miserable hot again, with only the occasional trade wind breeze to keep one from feeling like one was suffocating. It felt like September instead of practically November. It would be nice to get at least some of that frontal energy here before the week is out....



Well I am doing well, hope you arent too fried after your meeting and all the hot weather :P
Quoting tornadodude:


IP ban?
I dont know...Do I think it could happen?...yes.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He told me on Facebook he had an indefinite(not sure if this is the word I want but doesn't know the length)


If he doesn't know the meaning of "indefinite" and wants to know how long that is, well....... what can one say to that?
Quoting Grothar:


If he doesn't know the meaning of "indefinite" and wants to know how long that is, well....... what can one say to that?


Indefinite- the amount of space in his..... nvm, no need for a ban (:
Quoting Grothar:


If he doesn't know the meaning of "indefinite" and wants to know how long that is, well....... what can one say to that?

Tell him to check back every 5 minutes or so .. indefinite could easily be that long .. course the better word would be "permanent" but who knows what they mean ... =P

edit: whoops forgot to add the weather part to duck the banstik .... cool and drizzly here in mobile .. miserable =)
Quoting tornadodude:


How about the icebowl? Dallas and Greenbay?


Never give anybody the last word, do you TD! I liiiiiiike that!! Never let anyone top you.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow. Plus the weather was miserable hot again, with only the occasional trade wind breeze to keep one from feeling like one was suffocating. .


Here in Miami, I came home from work and turned the a/c on again. (sigh)
Quoting Grothar:


Never give anybody the last word, do you TD! I liiiiiiike that!! Never let anyone top you.


haha what about femal........... again, no need for a ban ;)
Quoting tornadodude:


Well I am doing well, hope you arent too fried after your meeting and all the hot weather :P
Yeah, fried is a good word for how I was feeling when I got home 2nite.... lol

either that or steamed....

This is an unusual wx pattern for this time of year. That map in 522 is forecasting some 50+ degree differentials between the US SE and NW... amazing. Also amazing to be having 82 outside at 10 pm this late in October... and 90 highs. Amazing effects of the high pressure.
BTW, looks like Neki is about to be swept off by a cold front....

Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, fried is a good word for how I was feeling when I got home 2nite.... lol

either that or steamed....

This is an unusual wx pattern for this time of year. That map in 522 is forecasting some 50+ degree differentials between the US SE and NW... amazing. Also amazing to be having 82 outside at 10 pm this late in October... and 90 highs. Amazing effects of the high pressure.


yeah, it is definitely very odd :/
Fun announcement coming tomorrow!
Link
Quoting miajrz:

Here in Miami, I came home from work and turned the a/c on again. (sigh)
Yeah, just when u think u have a chance to cut down the electric bill....

Buya! 90 deg. highs and 80+ degree lows....
Meh--I'd like the AC to stay off, but I know that is not realistic here in October. But some lasting cool weather would be great!
I can only stay on for an indefinite amount of time. Before I go, does anyone have any thoughts of any type of development in the Atlantic basin for the upcoming week?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Meh--I'd like the AC to stay off, but I know that is not realistic here in October. But some lasting cool weather would be great!
Here one can usually switch from A/C to a window fan at night by mid-October. (Days still often require the A/C.) However, this year? Not so much....

OTOH, I'd rather be hot than hit by a hurricane.... lol
Grothar, I can't even stay that long.... I can only stay for a definite length of time... and it's just about gone. LOL
Right, that's definitely the time.... lol

G'night, and see u in the a.m.....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Grothar, I can't even stay that long.... I can only stay for a definite length of time... and it's just about gone. LOL


Are you definite about that? Could you at least give me your analysis of the Atlantic basin forecast before you go. Even an indefinite answer would definitely suffice.
Quoting Grothar:


Are you definite about that? Could you at least give me your analysis of the Atlantic basin forecast before you go. Even an indefinite answer would definitely suffice.


I am definite that parts of the world are 50% below sea level XD
Quoting tornadodude:


haha what about femal........... again, no need for a ban ;)

Can't leave you guys alone in here for even a couple hours to watch a little tv with the hubby.

At first I thought that said FEMA -- waking nightmare -- same as Philly-Skins game. At least the Skins are on the board. We only watched during commercials.

Any more bad storms in TX, elsewhere?
My thoughts on the Eastern/Central Pacific:

Low near 10N 90W a LOW(10-25%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Trough near 12N 102W a FAIR(25-40%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Trough near 10N 170W a FAIR(25-40%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, just when u think u have a chance to cut down the electric bill....

Buya! 90 deg. highs and 80+ degree lows....


Here per local wunder, it was 81.6F, 87% and 0.0 wind when I posted. The 0.0 was Amazing--we Always have something, even if it's just all of us coughing and sneezing.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Can't leave you guys alone in here for even a couple hours to watch a little tv with the hubby.

At first I thought that said FEMA -- waking nightmare -- same as Philly-Skins game. At least the Skins are on the board. We only watched during commercials.

Any more bad storms in TX, elsewhere?


Yeah, lol, I am not too interested in this game :P except I am rooting for the Red Skins. Looks like there are a few storms in Louisiana
Quoting tornadodude:


I am definite that parts of the world are 50% below sea level XD


But with possible global warming that would only be for an indefinite period of time before it could be 60% below sea level.:P

You really are too funny TD. If nothing else, your memory is phenomenal.
Quoting Grothar:


But with possible global warming that would only be for an indefinite period of time before it could be 60% below sea level.:P

You really are too funny TD. If nothing else, your memory is phenomenal.


haha thanks, how can you forget moments like that though??
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah, lol, I am not too interested in this game :P except I am rooting for the Red Skins. Looks like there are a few storms in Louisiana

The Gulf states seem to get pounded even in so-called good years, ugh.
OK, I'll catch up on posts. Geoff made me turn my laptop upside-down again! :)(:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

The Gulf states seem to get pounded even in so-called good years, ugh.
OK, I'll catch up on posts. Geoff made me turn my laptop upside-down again! :)(:


hahaha (: I guess I was easily amused this morning


I shall leave you with this image. Everyone take care and stay well. I may be gone again for a while, but hope to be back again soon.
Cyclogenesis to my southwest :)
Quoting Grothar:


I shall leave you with this image. Everyone take care and stay well. I may be gone again for a while, but hope to be back again soon.


Take care Grothar!
TD 23W (JTWC upgraded the TD to a TS, JMA haven't yet)
Link
Guam NWS radar showing a bit of 23W's circulation.
Quoting tornadodude:


haha thanks, how can you forget moments like that though??
The Gulf of Mexico is looking interesting. Notice the deep convection on the east side. There is almost a hint of a circulation with good outflow.
Quoting hydrus:
The Gulf of Mexico is looking interesting. Notice the deep convection on the east side. There is almost a hint of a circulation with good outflow.


how is the shear though?
Quoting tornadodude:


how is the shear though?
The western Gulf has shear, but it does not seem that strong on the far eastern side. I could be seeing things, I will just watch and wait.
Quoting Grothar:


I shall leave you with this image. Everyone take care and stay well. I may be gone again for a while, but hope to be back again soon.


Grothar, you're on late! Then again, so am I.
Quoting hydrus:
The western Gulf has shear, but it does not seem that strong on the far eastern side. I could be seeing things, I will just watch and wait.


Watch and Wait, sounds like this whole season
Quoting tornadodude:


Watch and Wait, sounds like this whole season
At least we are here to do that very thing this year without some part of our coastline be blasted off the map by some massive hurricane. Maybe its Mother Natures way of saying (beer break). But we both know we have a little over a month to go.
Quoting hydrus:
At least we are here to do that very thing this year without some part of our coastline be blasted off the map by some massive hurricane. Maybe its Mother Natures way of saying (beer break). But we both know we have a little over a month to go.


yeah, this season has been very welcome
I see you guys typing on yer heads, again.

Make no mistake: mom and wow being the same when flipped over is not a coincidence. A perfect description of a good mom (of which my wife is the best there ever was).

(Ding,ding, brownie points!)

Bunch of strong winds on the south TX coast earlier today ranging from the upper 50s to 81 mph.



Most of the thunderstorm chances are out to sea...shouldn't be a lot more severe weather with this front.


(At least through the night, but hopefully not at all.)
569. xcool



Still catching up on posts...
Question: What's TBS? e.g., the decent females on campus had TBS. Pls. don't get banned on my account. Is B for the word that rhymes w/witch?

Regurgitation is a BLOG Topic???!!! LMAO.

All I know about that, besides the after-effects of too much partying, is that bulimia is really bad. Did some research on it. Besides the bad physical effects, you wouldn't believe the psychological profile of bulimics and after-effects. I am so happy I enjoy my food & drink only once (unless really ill.)

Weather TBA and TBD.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Still catching up on posts...
Question: What's TBS? e.g., the decent females on campus had TBS. Pls. don't get banned on my account. Is B for the word that rhymes w/witch?

Regurgitation is a BLOG Topic???!!! LMAO.

All I know about that, besides the after-effects of too much partying, is that bulimia is really bad. Did some research on it. Besides the bad physical effects, you wouldn't believe the psychological profile of bulimics and after-effects. I am so happy I enjoy my food & drink only once (unless really ill.)

Weather TBA and TBD.


haha mail :P
572. JRRP
I respectable disagree with masters on any development in the caribbean during the new few weeks. There's nothing remotely favorable for tc development down there and in my view there are no signs of that changing.It seemed to me that the 30-35N band around the hemisphere has had episodes of above average torque this season. The flow was just to tended to "curving" and this interfered with the normal laminar deep layer trade flow that would provide an ambient shear more favorable to development. I would not quote that directly without research however.

Why that is/was ...not sure. But the AAM was slightly positive across the last 90 days, and observing the graphical layout, it appeared 30 N was plagued a bit.

Shear and dry air are signature El Nino

adrian
Quoting hurricane23:
I respectable disagree with masters on any development in the caribbean during the new few weeks. There's nothing remotely favorable for tc development down there and in my view there are no signs of that changing.It seemed to me that the 30-35N band around the hemisphere has had episodes of above average torque this season. The flow was just to tended to "curving" and this interfered with the normal laminar deep layer trade flow that would provide an ambient shear more favorable to development. I would not quote that directly without research however.

Why that is/was ...not sure. But the AAM was slightly positive across the last 90 days, and observing the graphical layout, it appeared 30 N was plagued a bit.

Shear and dry air are signature El Nino

adrian



hey 23 am with you all the way hurricane season is done and that is that
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Neki (1010 hPa) located at 30.3N 164.9W or 390 NM north of French Frigate Shoals has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving north-northeast at 31 knots

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
Quoting tornadodude:


haha mail :P

Yea, I was 1/3 correct. There is a quick followup question on WU mail.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Yea, I was 1/3 correct. There is a quick followup question on WU mail.


haha gotcha!
so the Eagles won... on a nice cool night :P
If anyone cares at all, re Deadskins, don't think Jim Zorn will be around much longer...but if a poll was taken around here, think Dan Snyder would be dumped first. Can a team or town get rid of an owner if they haven't done anything obviously illegal?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
If anyone cares at all, re Deadskins, don't think Jim Zorn will be around much longer...but if a poll was taken around here, think Dan Snyder would be dumped first. Can a team or town get rid of an owner if they haven't done anything obviously illegal?


hmmm, well the Colts got rid of Baltimore.... so anything is possible I suppose
Quoting tornadodude:
so the Eagles won... on a nice cool night :P

Ha, posted the same time.

Time to claim my Yankee roots. Go New England!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Ha, posted the same time.

Time to claim my Yankee roots. Go New England!


haha uh oh, Yankees :O

gotta go with my Red Sox (:
well...... it just started raining here :P
Quoting tornadodude:


haha uh oh, Yankees :O

gotta go with my Red Sox (:

OOPS, clarification, gotta' go with my New England roots, yes, Red Sox.

Okay, T-Dude, thanks and I'm going to let you study(?), lol. Night, tomorrow will be another day to check on WPac and other things.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

OOPS, clarification, gotta' go with my New England roots, yes, Red Sox.

Okay, T-Dude, thanks and I'm going to let you study(?), lol. Night, tomorrow will be another day to check on WPac and other things.


shew! had me worried there :P

haha have a goodnight, and if you want to call it studying LOL


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Clear skies... If they would just hold til a little after 8am ET. Got a NASA causeway car pass to the ARES I-X launch in the morning.. They want cloudless conditions to launch.
Quoting Skyepony:
Clear skies... If they would just hold til a little after 8am ET. Got a NASA causeway car pass to the ARES I-X launch in the morning.. They want cloudless conditions to launch.


hope it works out
"It's just about Midnight (CDT time) and all through the blog, not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse! As every blogger snuggles up in their beds, visions of Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, Hurricanes, Super Typhoons, Weather Maps, Satellite Pictures and GFS Models dance through their heads. Good night to all, and to all good night"!

If anyone wants to stop by my new blog for today, it's about Mid TN Fall Severe Weather awareness! Be blessed all!!!
Quoting Bordonaro:
"It's just about Midnight (CDT time) and all through the blog, not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse! As every blogger snuggles up in their beds, visions of Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, Hurricanes, Super Typhoons, Weather Maps, Satellite Pictures and GFS Models dance through their heads. Good night to all, and to all good night"!

If anyone wants to stop by my new blog for today, it's about Mid TN Fall Severe Weather awareness! Be blessed all!!!


haha love it, goodnight to you, and everyone else, catch y'all tomorrow (:
591. xcool
bye matt
Quoting xcool:
bye matt


have a good one scott
Quoting Skyepony:
Clear skies... If they would just hold til a little after 8am ET. Got a NASA causeway car pass to the ARES I-X launch in the morning.. They want cloudless conditions to launch.

It looks like they might make it if they don't dilly dally around. I know they have a four hour reserved window, but if they don't go early it might not happen.
Good luck with your pass.
594. xcool
you too
595. JRRP
adios
Link
come on, we can at least get over 600 before i go to bed, in august even when it was dead we had 600 within 5 minutes. On topic: wpac storm:

hurricane season is not over until nov 30 at 11:59:59 sorry but i do see something forming by next week.
598. xcool
btwntx08 :0
599. xcool


480
TCNA21 RJTD 270600 CCA
NAMELESS 25149 11437 13136 220// 92915=

6:00 AM UTC October 27 2009

Tropical Depression "25"
14.9N 143.7E
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
Quoting btwntx08:
hurricane season is not over until nov 30 at 11:59:59 sorry but i do see something forming by next week.


But one also has to factor in the fact that, aside from Gordon, no November tropical cyclone has developed in the Caribbean during an El Nino year, at least within several decades. Possible yes, but unlikely. The odds are certainly against it.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (T0921)
15:00 PM JST October 27 2009
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon near Marianas

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mirinae (998 hPa) located at 14.9N 143.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 15 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale-Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 16.2N 137.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.3N 131.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 16.6N 126.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Well balderdash, would you look at what's headed for Macon, Georgia this morning. I think I'll just go back to sleep, no yard work at my house this morning. heh heh heh
Good Morning!
From an MSN article this morning:

Statisticians reject global cooling
Some skeptics claim Earth is cooling despite contrary data

Icebergs float in a bay off Ammassalik Island, Greenland.
By SETH BORENSTEIN
AP Science Writer

updated 4:47 p.m. ET, Mon., Oct . 26, 2009
WASHINGTON - An analysis of global temperatures by independent statisticians shows the Earth is still warming and not cooling as some global warming skeptics are claiming.
The analysis was conducted at the request of The Associated Press to investigate the legitimacy of talk of a cooling trend that has been spreading on the Internet, fueled by some news reports, a new book and temperatures that have been cooler in a few recent years.
In short, it is not true, according to the statisticians who contributed to the AP analysis.
The statisticians, reviewing two sets of temperature data, found no trend of falling temperatures over time.
Also interesting (from the conclusion of the above article)

Oceans influence short-term weather
Oceans, which take longer to heat up and longer to cool, greatly influence short-term weather, causing temperatures to rise and fall temporarily on top of the overall steady warming trend, scientists say. The biggest example of that is El Nino.
El Nino, a temporary warming of part of the Pacific Ocean, usually spikes global temperatures, scientists say. The two recent warm years, both 1998 and 2005, were El Nino years. The flip side of El Nino is La Nina, which lowers temperatures. A La Nina bloomed last year and temperatures slipped a bit, but 2008 was still the ninth hottest in 130 years of NOAA records.
Of the 10 hottest years recorded by NOAA, eight have occurred since 2000, and after this year it will be nine because this year is on track to be the sixth-warmest on record.
The current El Nino is forecast to get stronger, which probably will pushing global temperatures even higher next year, scientists say. NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt predicts 2010 may break a record, so a cooling trend "will be never talked about again."
Phillipine Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Weather Advisory No. 02
TROPICAL STORM (Pre-Santi)
Issued at 11:00 a.m. PhST 27 October 2009
=======================================

Tropical Storm (In't typhoon name Mirinae) over the Marianas Islands (North of Guam) was estimated at 2,200 km East Northeast of Visayas (13.9°N 145.1°E) with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (35 kts) and gustiness of up to 80 km/h (45 kts). It is forecast to move West Northwest at 26 km/h.

This weather disturbance is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday (Oct. 29).

Oops! I see CycloneOz in post #374 beat me to the punch, and atmoaggie has already trashed it. Oh well, at least I showed the pretty picture that went with it, as well as the link...
Hello (hello, hello)
Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me...
Is there anyone at home?
and now for something completely different...

NASA to launch world's largest rocket


(CNN) -- NASA is set to launch the world's largest rocket Tuesday, conducting research to help return astronauts to the moon.
The 327-foot rocket, called the Ares I-X, is set to launch at 8 a.m. ET from Kennedy Space Center in Florida, NASA said. The empty rocket will help NASA collect information for future missions.
"Ares I-X will bring NASA one step closer to its exploration goals to return to the moon for ambitious exploration," NASA said in statement.
The launch, which NASA is calling a test, is among four test launches of Ares I-X that will go on until 2012.
strong onshore winds this morning might be a negative for the aries launch in a few hours heard a few months ago they were having problems with it vibrations here in e.cent florida
The 8am twd is up already, at 7:15.
T minus 21 minutes, built in hold at T-minus 4m, still go for 8am launch...
NASA Update:
Countdown delayed...built-in hold to continue to 8:25, scheduled lift-off at 8:29am...
Quoting leftovers:
strong onshore winds this morning might be a negative for the aries launch in a few hours heard a few months ago they were having problems with it vibrations here in e.cent florida


Just to be specific, it's not aries (as in astrology), but ares. The name "Ares" refers to the Greek deity Ares, who is identified with the Roman god Mars.
620. P451
A whole lot of nothing going on.

Those who stated a couple of weeks ago that they thought the season was over may have been correct.

621. P451
Interesting stuff, Mike
New delay on the pad...8:29 is no longer the go time. Riveting live TV.
Quoting P451:
Interesting stuff, Mike


Thanks P451, I was beginning to think I'd chased everyone away. Was about to post the seldom heard of rule that states that any blogger who can post ten in a row gets to own the blog for 24 hours and can talk about any subject. I of course would post nothing but global warming articles, classic rock and roll lyrics, and off-color jokes…
624. IKE
Interesting fact...although not that surprising....there has been no hurricane or tropical storm to strike the USA in November this decade.
9:24 am EDT is the new liftoff time...
Quoting TheUno:
9:24 am EDT is the new liftoff time...


Good one Uno, your post showed up 10 seconds before the nasa tv guy confirmed it. I guess the big tell all will be when (if) the "5-hole probe" cover comes off, then they're sure it's a go...
Quoting IKE:
Interesting fact...although not that surprising....there has been no hurricane or tropical storm to strike the USA in November this decade.


Morning Ike, I love hurricane history, tell us more...
628. IKE
Hurricane Kate in 1985 was the only hurricane to hit the USA in November, going back to 1950...1 in 60 years....

I just looked this up at noaa, should have posted it last night when the subject first came up:

(3) When did the earliest and latest hurricanes occur? The hurricane season is defined as June 1 through November 30. The earliest observed hurricane in a year in the Atlantic was on March 7, 1908, while the latest observed hurricane was on December 31, 1954, the second “Alice” of that year which persisted as a hurricane until January 5, 1955. Zeta of 2005 was the second latest tropical cyclone to form, just six hours ahead of Alice 1954. The earliest hurricane to strike the United States was Alma which struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966. The latest hurricane to strike the United States was late on November 30, 1925 near Tampa, Florida.
Sounds like the only real issue with the launch is the concern over upper-level winds. Still, they're talking about taking the probe cover off within the next 15 minutes...
631. IKE
I'm so bored I went back to the year 1900. There's been no hurricane to strike the USA west of the state of Florida in November.


1935 had hurricane 6 hit Florida in November...


They don't want the "5-hole probe" (that is what they're saying right?) to get wet. Hoping to beat the approaching shower...


Ike, are you able to see launches from your location?
Good Morning from the Florida Big Bend. Nasty cells of t-storms head towards the FL Panhandle this morning from off-shore. Keep alert in the Panhandle and Big Bend today for possible tornadoes (keep your NOAA radios handy) as some waterspouts have already been seen offshore of Destin this morning.
Looking at the track for that '35 storm. Downright weird...
634. wasn't that also the year for the Great Labor Day hurricane?
Sounds like they're comfortable with the load calculations based on UL winds. Still go for a 9:24am launch...
yep...that was the year...weird coincidence...


look at how far north in the Atlantic that storm stayed a hurricane...wow
Quoting pearlandaggie:
634. wasn't that also the year for the Great Labor Day hurricane?


Yesindeedy.

Now talking about a "slight adjustment" in liftoff time...
Quoting pearlandaggie:
yep...that was the year...weird coincidence...


look at how far north in the Atlantic that storm stayed a hurricane...wow


Wonder what '35 was as far as ocean temps, el nino, la nina, etc...?
639. ya know, i was thinking the same thing when i realized the GLDH reintensified to a hurricane after passing over North Carolina and stayed a hurricane that far north in the Atlantic!

of course, the world will never know!
Probe cover has been removed, but is caught on something, but no big deal apparently...

Flight poll...everyone says ready.
Idon't know guys and gals looks top heavy to me =(

Hoping for a sucessful test but just looks top heavy. Like once the payload gets up there the rotational pivot point is above the first stage booster segment. Meaning any thrust loss in any axis would cause a loss of attitude control. Am I right? From what I understand there is no thrust vectoring its basically light the fire and hang on. Correct?

Watching it on NASA TV even though it says educational right now.

Keeping my fingers crossed.

LOL mission update.. cord holding nose cone sheeth is stuck, might have to "cut the cord" their words not mine
cord away
zero time 9:44 now
awsome shot of atlantis and aries on the pads on tv right now
still a weather hold

planes flying around checking tropoelectrification parameters
Quoting pearlandaggie:
639. ya know, i was thinking the same thing when i realized the GLDH reintensified to a hurricane after passing over North Carolina and stayed a hurricane that far north in the Atlantic!

of course, the world will never know!


Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the Labor Day Hurricane still the most powerful TC in recorded history (via pressure) to ever make landfall anywhere on earth?
green for tropo =)

its a go
NO GO!!!! NO GO!!!! NO GO!!!!

CARGO SHIP DOWN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 90 MINUTES



what the hell was harbor pilots thinking!!!
double post =(
.
13.1.35.0 gmt resume countdown

ten minute hold

23.45z presumed launch

sorry, getting the chater off the coms as it comes in.
That is a funky looking spacecraft ain't it Boondog? I first saw it on a tour of KSC for the STS-126 launch last Dec. Wih I was there for this one - bound to be spectacular.

UPDATE
There's a cargo ship in the "danger box" - declaring a NOGO for now...
yes mik it is.


they have a range go now BUT they cant restart the coundown computer. LOL

they want go NOW due to weather
Someone's going to catch hell over that ship...
guess they figure the ship is less important then the launch LOL

new resume time is 13:45 with a launch at 13:49 =)

mik you are right. range control is getting their ass chewed out right now I bet.

9:49 is the new launch time. They are going foward even with the ship in the box.
Doppler Radar indicating a waterspout about 30-35 miles west-southwest of Panama City moving north at about 30 MPH.
T minus 3:59:59 and counting......
nice nose cone down looking camera angle, hopefully it lasts until splashdown. would be a cool shot
Quoting Bonedog:
mik you are right. range control is getting their ass chewed out right now I bet.

9:49 is the new launch time. They are going foward even with the ship in the box.


Good deal.
back to 4:00 minutes and holding.

recycling computer systems

they are taking zero chances with this other than the frighter target practice LOL
weather NO GO now
Quoting Bonedog:
back to 4:00 minutes and holding.

recycling computer systems

they are taking zero chances with this other than the frighter target practice LOL


No kidding. What's the price tag on this, 450m?
Quoting Bonedog:
weather NO GO now


They're gonna have to reset to Wednesday I bet.
waiting on aircraft report now
5 min standby for weather recon

no more talk about the frieghter. Now a stupid cloud is holding us up.
I think this might be pushed to wednesday. Helos reporting low fuel now need to refuel.
Doppler Radar still indicating a waterspout 30 miles west-southwest of Panama City moving north at 29 MPH(25 KTS)
Quoting Bonedog:
5 min standby for weather recon

no more talk about the frieghter. Now a stupid cloud is holding us up.


A complicated machine and procedure. What did they say during Apollo, even if 99.9% of everything goes right, it would still mean about 10,000 other things went wrong?
15-20 minute weather window (if verified) in about 50 minutes

now everyone is keeping their fingers crossed.

helos will be refueled in the time frame of this weather no go and be operational by the new weather window.

still no official word from flight if they will go with the new window.
674. IKE
NEW BLOG!
I have a question for anyone who wants to answer in Post 605 I read this: "The two recent warm years, both 1998 and 2005, were El Nino years."

Maybe this is a stupid question but If 2005 was an El Nino year why did we have so many storms? We are in an El Nino year and I thought this decreased Atlantic storms..I am still learning.
Good posts Boondog. They're showing up at about the same time I'm hearing of it on nasatv. Very quick.
1454 launch now tentative