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A quiet Sunday in the tropics

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:55 PM GMT on July 16, 2006

It's another quiet Sunday for the tropical Atlantic. The impressive line of thunderstorms brewing off the coast of the Carolinas is associated with a cold front. An extratropical or subtropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front by Monday, then push slowly up the East Coast during the week. This system is not a threat to become a tropical storm today--there's too much wind shear, cold air, and cool water. However, the Hurricane Center is giving it the chance of slowly acquiring tropical characteristics if it can remain south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina for the next two days.

Wind shear is a very high 20 - 40 knots across most of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Shear is expected to stay high in these regions for at least the next six days, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic during this period. Enjoy the quiet time!

I've linked a photo of an odd fog formation a wunderphotographer in Alaska took--I've never seen anything like this photo! It shows very graphically what strong wind shear can do to contort a cloud into strange shapes. The wind speed and direction are different at the bottom of this fog bank than at the top, creating a twisting, shearing effect on the cloud that bends it into strange shapes. Now imagine what strong wind shear can do to a developing tropical depression--ouch!

Jeff Masters
Fog bank in the high Arctic
Fog bank in the high Arctic
After days of west and north-west winds and heavy fog in Prudhoe Bay Alaska, the wind changed to the south -east....and literally pushed the remaining fog into incredible formations such as the one seen here!

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Shear rules! Thanks Dr. M.
Great news.

Just need more rain here in Northern Florida.

Have a happy Sunday, all.

B
Morning Dr. Masters......

"This system is not a threat to become a tropical storm--there's too much wind shear, cold air, and cool water."

well, no ambiguity there! LOL
Shear rules! but for how march longer and whats the forcast for Shear wehn we get pass 6 days?
i have never said that the "thunderstorms" off the carolina coast was tropical, will be tropical, or anything of the sort....

i have only stated that "it is possible!"

why in the hades does that peeve some people???
Re: the T-storms in the Carolinas...
We had a humdinger yesterday evening. Windy, pouring rain, lots of thunder and a fabulous light show!
whats the forcast for Shear pass 6 days
The phrase that stays.
Oh....and GO, shear, GO!
Shear is our friend!
Thank you for the update. Too soon it will not be so nice to hear I fear. What an amazing pic. Am thankful there are so many photogs to capture weather phenom for us out there. WOW!
I have some good pics of that storm coming in Bug. I am going to get them on the site soon.

SJ
thel, I don't really think it peeves people per se. It's just that when all options point otherwise to those in the know, and they explain to those of us not in the know, and we don't heed it, it appears we are not willing to listen and learn. That itself is MHO only. I am NOT in the know.
oh yea code..... i forgot...... so you are basically saying "we are stupid!" LOL

thats fine.... as long as i can have some fun! :)
Not you!!! Me. I would never call someone other than myself stupid, please don't take that comment as that. Not my intention at all. I just know in my profession, when dealing with others in same and they just can't grasp a concept when many of us say the same thing, it is frustrating. I would think that is how those in the know feel about weather.
My own belief is that whoever these people are that are "in the know" should not make bald assertions and expect them to stand as fact without explaining their reasoning. If they are not articulate enough to do this, then they should not be trying to teach anyone. "Argument by Assertion" and "Argument from Authority" are well-known logical fallacies.

Note that the good Dr. Masters explains himself very well above: "...there's too much wind shear, cold air, and cool water".
Thelmores

I think it's the fact that half the time you sound as though you're wishcasting every little blob that pops up. On another forum I frequent you are what would be reffered to as a "wave monger," and people are there dont seem to like them much either. I personally dont really care what other people post here as long as it isn't offensive or ignorant/arrogant, even though those videos people posted we're quite annoying.
As for the cool water, the buoy 250 E of Charleston has been running around 84F or 28.9C. My opinion is that if something is left behind from this, like the MYB blob then there is an outside chance it could become tropical.

This system even had 03 interested last night.

SJ
I would like to share Hurricane Emily:

guygee, I think since Dr. M does such a good job explaining that, others do not feel the need to do so as much. It is just redundancy at that point, and most scientists I know abhor the thought of that.
And still alittle interested!..LOL I updated my blog with some of my thoughts.
Tropical Weather Outlook:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS AND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE WARM
GULFSTREAM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

That is why we have been talking about this. Although not likely, interesting none the less.
StormJunkie that is the opposite of waht the Dr. just said....I'm now confuse
23. IKE
Oops....uh...maybe there is some hope.

Come back Dr. M!!!!
24. IKE
Im confused too?!??!?

Looks like there's a chance.
The tropics are very confusing, this is why it interest many of much like a bad habit. It is not that the Dr is wrong or the NHC is wrong. It is just a very subjective and fluid topic that we really don't understand very well yet. Especially us amatuers.

SJ
StormJunkie - On the "cool water" comment by Dr. Masters, I think Dr. Master's is following the assumption of development farther north and a NE movement. If a piece of this system persists and drifts south, I am with you in that it could become more interesting. I am in "wait and see" mode on that, so I won't dwell on it unless I see something definitive one way or the other: "ground truth" observations, satellite data or something definite I can "bring to the table" of this blog to further good discussion.
SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE WARM
GULFSTREAM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.


When was the last time i saw them say something like that.
Ike, Where were you getting those buoy readings?
29. IKE
But probably a fish system unless...the high rebuilds which it isn't forecast to do..I think.
"half the time you sound as though you're wishcasting every little blob that pops up."

well, i think i have addressed this several times before, but heck, i'll give it one more shot.... i am fascinated by tropical genesis, and i certainly am not going to "apologize" for it!"..... In a perfect world, i wish tropical genesis never occurred.... but no matter what i wish, it will occur.... fact.

if you see a wave come off the cape verdes, you can plainly see the "genesis" here....

but storms like "the blobs" i have been chasing, are truly a different animal..... how can you "study" tropical genesis, without looking at these swirls?

in closing, i always try to be respectful and thoughtful (sorry about all the images dial-uppers).... but i could really care less "what people think"......
OK SJ
W465,

I think right before that wave in the central Atlantic bit the big one.
I like systems that go out to sea....you can watch them develop without having to threaten someone...maybe for marine vessels.
34. IKE
Link for buoys...Link

Scroll down to buoys.
Yes, this is a tough one. I am even alittle confused!..LOL I was last night. Nobody is right or wrong at this point. And again, this should not be a threat to the US as its moving away from the coast.
"SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE "

well, is that like a 50% chance of rain? LOL

can't blame the NHC for strattling the fence, now can you?
HurricaneMyles, the NHC never commented on that wave.....
Negatives: Shear, frontal system. Positives: Warm waters today.
opps thanks 456..... its the NWS strattling the fence! :)
thelmores,

Like I said, I don't care what the heck you post. A lot of people here, however, don't like hear about every little change in a blob that has a 1% chance of developing. You are facinated by it, so am I, but that's just the view from the other side, which you had asked for.
Posted By: code1 at 3:25 PM GMT on July 16, 2006.
guygee, I think since Dr. M does such a good job explaining that, others do not feel the need to do so as much. It is just redundancy at that point, and most scientists I know abhor the thought of that.

code1 - My opinion is that the depth of explanation should be a good fit for the audience you are addressing. I think this is a basic tenet of good writing as well as good teaching. As for writing on this blog, there are many people here at all levels of knowledge, so my personal belief is that anyone posting here should be prepared to explain their reasoning to an audience with minimal assumptions on the expertise of the audience. I don't mind if certain people here ignore that basic tenet of good writing and good teaching, and simply post their assertions, but if they choose that path they shouldn't make it a big issue when others disagree.
W456,

I think you're mistaked on that one because I believe they mentioned something about a low level circulation right before it got to the Antilles and was shear to death.
Question: Why blog if you don't care what others think? We all learn from each other.
"the view from the other side, which you had asked for."

thanks Myles.... think i get it! :)
Agreed guygee.
IKE, I do not see any pressure reading for buoy 41002

What I do note of interest is the continued 20kt winds. As well as a 31kt gust and the 8ft wave heights that have been increasing.

HurricaneMyles, I thought you was talking about the cape verde wave.....
I see you mean 96L

Dont think they said that about 96L.....it was always "upper level winds are not conducive for development"
W456,

Sorry about the confusion, I had forgot Navy made it an invest. However, I'm pretty sure the NHC said it had a window to gradually develop until it got into the Caribbean, because upper level winds were quite favorable before that.
About two hours till new models come out.

I wonder if we get a invest now? Any idea?
HurricaneMyles...ohhhok
hey SJ, we are gamecock fans.... we get no respect! LOL
LMAO thel, especially from the Florida folk now, just givin ya'll fla'rs a hard time. :)

Conditions at 41002 as of(10:50 am EDT)
Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 270 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.4 sec
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.6 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 F

one thing for sure, the water HERE is warm enough to support a TS........
HurricaneMyles...ohhhok

I'm not sure how to take that, but here's something I found.

ABNT20 KNHC 090910
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 MPH.
HurricaneMyles...ohhhok

I'm not sure how to take that, but here's something I found.


I went to check the outlook archives at FLhurricane website and i saw it...so i said oohhok.
on the latest loop, almost appears to me "frack" (eastern storm)is getting absorbed by "frick" (closest to land)......

if we are going to have delepment, this may be the proverbial "straw".......

thoughts???
the Carolinas system...does not seem to be getting shear...do you agree?
456 it is getting sheared a little from the N, but it seems to only be once the cloud tops get really cold. I could be missing something there though. I just know that the deep convection has been allowed to persist so I can not imagine or see a ton of shear on it. I am very confused about that though.

thel, I agree that the only chance this thing has is the MYB blob as the OBX blob is going to go N or NE
i think we have shear from the north, but i think these systems are "shallow", which as SJ states, every time we get some "really" cold tops, they get sheared, because they are much higher than most of the convection....

there is rain and thunder here by the airport in pcola now yeah! yeah!
go pcola, go!!!!
62. IKE
It's raining here in Defunaik Springs...

AMAZING!!! A morning thunderstorm. First time in weeks.

Thanks trough!

SJ..Buoy 41002 doesn't have pressure readings. It was the one south and west of there that does. I misquoted earlier.
I think that everyone have something to said and I respect all of you people.
64. IKE
*Defuniak*
I think that everyone have something to said and I respect all of you people.
66. IKE
Actually it was the buoy north and east of 41002...#41001 that has pressure readings off NC.
thelmores were are you from?
wow this is some in 91E and now 92E

and fornation alert for 91E and 92E this pop up
Thanks IKE. I think 41002 does have pressure readings, I just think something is wrong with it. Actually it is. It is scheduled to get the pressure data restored in August per the NBDC. That kinda stinks :(

thelmores, you are correct, frack has been absorbed by frick. Take a look at the animation loops for the Northwest Atlantic.
is there any chance "frick" is headed to south fla or is it goin north for sure?
where is the blob headed? north or south?
Headed N most likely 23. All the model say so.

Although I do not see how it is going to head N right now.

It is almost like the first blob, ot the OBX blob is protecting the MYB blob from some of the owrst of the shear. Just geussing here.
75. IKE
Right now I would say south/southeast.
If buoy 41002 had already been fixed, we would have a great pressure reading.
Hey Ike...

Down here in Santa Rosa Beach, we actually got a shower (about 20 minutes) this morning! It was the first time in 11 weeks I'd gotten rain at my house.
12z GFS is out here. Use the 850 mb vorticity field.

Do not know what to make of the way it intiated the system. Looks to be way too far N. Unless that little break off piece heads back to N Fla. It does hint at something getting left behind. If it is the MYB blob that gets left behind it may bear watching more closely. Also be interesting to see what the other models say. Not real clear on how to reead the shear maps between shear and zonal shear, but it looks like shear is forecast to increase slightly as the trough or front pushes S. Wait and see.
On that vorticity model, you may also notice an area of vorticity at about 45W 20N at about 96 hours which appears to strengthen slightly and curve NE.
85. IKE
There are haevy thundershowers in Okaloosa County Fl. from Crestview down to Fort Walton Beach.
Dr. Masters says there will be high wind shear for the next six days, but the models I'm looking at show a significant reduction after about Day 4. Anyone agree?




I thought I would try my hand at putting up a visible loop animated gif that is smaller than the 200kb limit. It comes out a little grainy, but I think it gets the point across. In the most recent images there is an exposed LLC as of 17:00 UTC centered around 37 N 68 W that can be seen in the upper right hand corner. There is also an interesting area approximately in the area around 33 N 75 W, but it is hard to determine if there is a closed circulation anywhere near there a this time. The northern LLC seems to be moving E or ESE at the right now, while the more SW area of interest seems to be drifting S or SW...

I do think that the predominate LLC is showing at least some signs of a hybrid system, in that the upper-level outflow over the convection to the east seems to be anti-cyclonic, but it remains to be seen if it will ever develop much past this point.
"Do not know what to make of the way it intiated the system. Looks to be way too far N. Unless that little break off piece heads back to N Fla. It does hint at something getting left behind. If it is the MYB blob that gets left behind it may bear watching more closely."

SJ, i agree 100%..... the models, imho, havent intiated this system properly on any of the runs the last 24hrs..... which is why i have been hesitant on predicting track/ intensity.....
nicely put guygee, great post!

i still hold out a "possibility" "frick" could visit n. florida...... sure, not likely, but to me, seems to be increasing in chances as long as there is a southward motion.

i guess i would also have to throw out the possibity that "frick" stalls near it current location, and is pushed back towards the coast......

so, which scenario is most unlikely? if we don't know what it will do, maybe we can figure out what it won't do! LOL
jp, there are several of the most used links on this page. Including the Navy sites.

Guygee, I am most interested in that area of convection moving due S or just E of that off of the SC coast. There is an outside chance that this gets left behind while everything else moves N and NE.
jp - For extratropical systems I believe it is where the cold and warm parts meet. For something tropical to form, probably more at the left-behind "tail" of the front...
Does anyone think that one of these possible systems can get pinned down by high pressure and sit and spin up after a while when shear weakens?
SJ, i agree 100%..... the models, imho, havent intiated this system properly on any of the runs the last 24hrs..... which is why i have been hesitant on predicting track/ intensity.....

I am not blaming the thel as it is a very complex system. Lots of little vortices. lol.

SJ
StormJunkie - I agree, if the convection off of the SC coast persists and stays over warm waters, it is the most most interesting area to watch. I think the current exposed LLC to the NE will begin to lift out to more towards the NE over time.
not blamming the models :) Only as good as the data that goes in something like 12 hrs ago.

Maybe only 6 to 8, but it was awhile ago that the models got their data.
agreed SJ, every time they intitialize the model, everything changes! LOL
What I do notice is that the GFS, CMC, and Ukmet show some remenant 850mb features moving towards N Fl up to NC. It is very weak and unorganized, but interesting. That being said, I would say there is at least some shot that some piece of this moves back towards the coast at some point.
if you look at the exposed llc to the ne of "frick".... you see a tremendous amount of shear....

on "frick" i see very little sheer, if any..... course this system may indeed be "shallow" like i said earlier..... thus not as succeptable to any shear.

nonetheless, you put it together...... low shear, rel. high sst... sustained convection...... the only thing imho holding us back are the rel. high pressures at the surface.....

I notice that on the water vapor image shows the dryer air to the north of the disturbances streches east/west. In the past, when that happens, there is more chance of frontal zone split with tail end left behind. Just gotta wait and see I guess.
thel, what I noticed about the imagery through this morning was a strong wind fwom the WNW blowing right on the blob. As the day has progressed though it looks almost like the outer edges of the blob have been pushing back against those winds. Maybe I missed something here, but if you look at the 30 frame loop from the visable here, you can see what I was talking about.
Now we have frick, frack and frock.
Hey watch your language :)

113. code1
See my point yet SJ? No respect for others.
"See my point yet SJ? No respect for others."

geez..... I post 1 pic 114kb (well below the limit Dr. Masters set of 200kb), and people get all bent out of shape! LOL
hey SJ,

I just got back in from fishing offshore about 25 miles out. Man, I knew something was up, we had 4 - 6 foot seas and had to come back in to fish near the Harbour.

It looks to me like it is moving to the south , southeast. At least one of the blobs, F1, F2 etc... ???
The Dr, did ask us to refrain from large pics thel. Even though you did apologize:)

Anywho just spam it away if you need to code. I hit it once for ya already.

SJ
I guess ppl with broadband can't complain about lots of pics thelmores ;)
118. WSI
Links work a lot better for photos. The same thing is accomplished, and no one is forced to endure long blog download times. It does make the blog easier to read too. Everyone is happy then. :)
119. WSI
"I guess ppl with broadband can't complain about lots of pics thelmores"

I have broadband, and I do, LOL!

Mainly cause I remember what dialup was like on a forum where most had broadband. Links really are the way to go.
I downloaded thel's image,FRICK3.gif, and it shows up on my computer as 114 kb. I thought the official ruling was anything under 200 kb was OK? No need to apologize, thel...

Are there any dial-uppers out there that have problems with these small images? I think a few images helps the discussion along...

If people on dial-up have problems with even these small images, I will also refrain from posting them.
i mean no harm or disrespect to anyone.... i am here just to learn, and have some fun (at nobody else's expense).....

i have been a little more noticable, because "frack" formed over my head, so i kinda feel like a father..... proud of my youngun, so i just had to post a pic of him! :)

he's kinda cute, and not even a day old yet! :)
122. code1
No way thel. We "locals" as we have been called have been bombarded with mail over the past week asking us not to abandon the main blog. This is a big part of the reason we have as such. We always follow the good Dr., but can do without the hype as it were. You are a good example of such unfortunately. The "locals" or WUBA as it were, are concerned with others feelings and broad band capabilities. We DO care for others feelings and opportunities for learning. I, for one, will be happy to see when you no longer need to prove your prowess/overachieving testosterone with images. We do know how to look at images ourselves believe it or not!
Wait a minute. That was below what the Dr. said was allowed.

code, if that is below the size allowed by the Dr then there is no harm in it. It is on topic.

Why?
125. code1
guygee, I spent all of April on dial up. Trust me when I tell you this, links are the way to go! So many, including me, had forgotten the hardship of dial up. After living with it for a month, any pic is too large! Links do serve the same purpose unless we are trying to show our masculinity which is a laugh to some. That includes me BTW.
Sorry, what's up rescue. I bet it was pretty nasty out there. At 41002 wave heights are running 8ft.

Don't know what this thing is going to do.

SJ
Yes WSI, I agree whole heartedly, links give choice, yet don't infringe. I take note.
I know Dr. M's word isn't the absolute law but he is a professional so all I'm saying is that if he isn't concerned with this "feature" should we really be? not saying nobody should watch it or follow it to their heart's delight. Just saying we're all on here talking about it developing and all.
129. code1
Fine, but SJ, no more mails asking us to stay please. There are so many with dial up here that never post, that it is a great hardship for to wade through the images, just so the little men can prove they can do so. I see the little boys here don't care about others, one even made the comment this morning as such. Don't ask me again.
Link

check this out...looks like somethin forming
The NHC mentioned it amaz. The models show it. Sorry Dr M, I am still keeping an eye on it.

SJ
Sorry code, I only asked for the blanket statements to be left out.

SJ
I think if we space the small images out so that only a few show up within the 50 comment window, people who are on dial-up shouldn't have much problem.

The only reason I posted that grainy loop above is that it is from a java animation and there is no way to post a link to it. thel's images are from the same source...so I think if we don't bunch up too many images together there should be no problem for people on dial-up.

If anyone actually on dial-up is having a problem, please let us know...

Anyways, I am off to get some work done today,
I catch everyone later!
See ya guygee.


Convection appears to be spreading and growing around the MYB blob a little.

SJ
135. code1
SJ, be honest here. I can post all mails if you wish. Not interested in doing so though. These people will leave again as soon as the season ends. Hallelujah!!! We can go to other blogs to find out what we need, and still read Dr. M. No time for nonsense, gotta go. I just tried to do what you have pleaded for us to do for the last week or more.
I am impressed with the latest IR Sat pic here, I am noting cirrus outflow on the NW quad. That can only mean that shear has weakened (at least in that area).Link
Yes wx, what appears to be outflow on the NW is what really caught my interest.

SJ
Can someone plz help me with my link ( is dead ). I just used the link button and copy/paste the page address.
code1 - I always go with links when I can, but they don't work for java applications that allow zoom. overlay and other features...

I agree we should keep it easy for poeple on dial-up to blog here, code1. Given the poor quality of that loop I posted, I won't be duplicating that effort again.

OK, I'm off now...
I think this is gonna be a soaker for the s. carolina coast from around hilton head northward.

I think it needs to be watched considering the the gulf stream is getting very warm.

I do wonder if the high will build back in and shove it south ward after the other low moves to the northeast??
ok, guygee answered it. Java image link needs to be copied and put on a webserver like photobucket. thanks guygee for the inadvertent help.
wxhatt, you can not link that page on that site. That is why thel posted the image.

Try this one.
I see the NHC might send a plane to check it out if needed for tomorrow, but it looks like they are going further east than were we are seeing the convection right now!
rescue, that will change if this trend continues with the MYB blob. Although it looks like it is almost due E of Chas or maybe a little S of that.
I like that link SJ, pretty cool!
Ok, here is is again. noted outflow NW quad...Link
It is also on this page if you need itwhile on the road rescue.

Quick Links
SJ,

MY rain forcast or the Plane going out sooner???
149. WSI
Really people. On the images...think about it.

Lets say 10 people stretch the limit and post 200k pictures. That is a little under 2MB for someone to download. Broadband? No problem. Dial-up? More than a couple minutes. Let's have a little respect for those people, ok? Remember many people lurk here, not everyone posts.


huh???? Confused me rescue.
Is it me, or does this thing look like it is getting some structure to it???

Or do I not have a clue since it is still developing if it is doing that at all?
We have one image in this blog. I think we all agree that we should keep the pics to a minimum. Lets move on.

Afternoon WSI
Sj,

was asking what will change if the trend continues?
000
ABNT20 KNHC 161502
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH AND
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS AND CONTINUING EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF BERMUDA. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE WARM
GULFSTREAM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME


155. WSI
"We have one image in this blog."

Small blog. Yesterday's showed how many we can get.

Anyway I am done on it. Just trying to get people to see the larger picture.
I wouldn't think that in this day and age that people would still be using dial-up, at least not in here. If anyone does, and they have trouble using the Internet b/c it's so slow, they need to go broadband with the rest of the world. The Internet isn't made for dial-up users anymore. That's just my opinion :)
157. WSI
"The Internet isn't made for dial-up users anymore"

Some places have trouble getting it quake. Know of one person who has to use satellite (which is very $$$ in his area) or dial-up, no in between options. Its not always a choice.
Quake, I know many users on here right now that are on dial-up. These people live in unpopulated areas and cannot get dial-up.
Don't know about sooner, I jsut think it will pay more attention to the MYB blob. You said it was going further E.

As for rain, all of the coast may get some. don't know though.

It does look like the Blob has some structure, but I am not sure that can be right.
its looking immpressive.I like thelmores image.
For those of you who do not already know, I have updated my blog. My new blog is a look back at Opal.
So pics are no problem; almost all websites people go to have several pictures anyway...and oh yeah people don't have to keep re-downloading the pictures every time they hit refresh anyway, since it goes into your computer's local cache files, so they just have to d/l it once...so I say, if you have a good picture you wish to share with everyone that's not huge and goudy, feel free to post it. I will do the same.
163. code1
Here's a concept sure to please all unless it is a testosterone thing. Post the image on your own blog, and then tell all to look there. hmmmmm, those with fast connections will be able to do so if they wish, and those without won't have to wade through it. Or is that to difficult for a testosterone based man. lol No comments on your blog? Should tell you something then.
Yes Rescue, I do think that the split already occured, and the tail is growing into a beast! LOL.

Nice outflow already. If this continues with it over the warmer SST's of the gulfstream we may have a TD or even a TS by tomorrow noon. Plus, because of the position of this disturbance, it's less likely to be moved out anytime soon.
I wished they would move the floater?

Sj, they listed the coordinates as 35n 72 w, for the possible invest!
166. code1
quakeman, you are another with no clue. I am out of here. No more mails SJ! Dr. M, I will follow your posts, but will do without the a$$es in here. I know those same will be happy. Why care for your fellow person who needs the help when you can look like a big man yourself. LOLOLOLOLOLOL
So sad.
has the models come out...?
quakeman55 your way off with your broadband comment. It is either impossible to get or too expensive for some people. Don't be a jerk.
My question at my blog:

Do you feel that the 2005 Hurricane Season has to some degree ruined peoples perception of tropical activity?

you can leave ur comments about the question

also my blog, takes a look back at Hurricane Emily, a day like today...emily attain Category 5 status...

you can also..leave comments about how Emily affected you.
code, if you have a problem with me, or anything i have done, i expect "you" to be man enough to address it in private, and not litter Dr. Masters blog with your juvenile dial-up rant.
jphurricane2006, you can past by a read some of the comments...they were kind of good.

I'll post a new blog then
Anyone try to go to sites like foxnews.com on dial-up? Have fun with that...lol

"All I want is just the latest news!!" I could hear them squeaming.

All I'm saying is that if you're still on dial-up, you can expect it to take a while to load Web pages, especially as they are becoming increasingly filled with more and more pictures, video, Flash animations, and the like. Plenty more sites are much more jam-packed than this blog with a few relatively small pictures in it. So I say people shouldn't complain so much unless someone intentionally fills the page with garbage.

So the GFS, NOGAPS and CMC all show much reduced shear in the next few days (NOGAPS reducing it the most). With all of this heat around lately, it wouldn't take much to get something to spin up.
177. code1
Mail is on the way to both of you juveniles!!!
ok, back on topic....

"frack" appears to be at a crossroads....

if it continues se, it will enter cooler waters, and higher shear?

what is the possibility, do you think, that "frack" could "stall" near its current location?
I've enjoyed this site, much of last year, and with the new upgrades it's been even better. I enjoy the weather bloggers on here. It's interesting, but the immature, third grade attitudes on here have gotten ridiculous. Grow up guys! I for one will not continue to thread through the crap looking for good information. Have a nice Sunday, and God bless the ones on here with some brains, respect and humility.
"Mail is on the way to both of you juveniles!!!"

look forward to it friend! :)
The models have been trying to reduce shear now for the past week. I am starting not to buy it.
03, you mean just shear in general..... and which model(s) specifically do you speak of.....
Shear in general. About a week ago the GFS had the shear considerably lower in 5 to 7 days. It still has not shown that trend yet.
184. Lane
does anyone on here live in louisiana or Ms gulf coast? just curious
Afternoon 03, so what is your take on this. Whay the continued deep convection with all the shear in the area?
wow ...thought I would check in to see what Thelmores blobs are doing and after a little reading ...wow ...and I'm not talking about the 3 F's here!

Thel's images are not too big, and images are needed as part of the posting process. Some of you are acting as though you know so much about the hardship of dial up users but your arguments make no sense. If dial up users, or any visitors to this blog experience problems with speed then they need only set their browsers to not display images. If a dial up user has not yet figured out how to do this, they are not able to access many websites. Do tell - where are the websites that don't have images???

Sounds to me like a few people are using this images and dial-up stuff as a reason to flex their muscles (really trying to be nice here). The complaining is without merit, the images add to the blog.

When this came up the other day, I spoke up in favor of the images links work for some things but when a link is posted that needs options to select before we see what you saw it doesnt happen. Even without that it makes for a quicker read to have the image.

Oh, and Code if you dont want to be here then dont. Stop lurking in the hope that someone is going to beg you to stay. Plenty of people on here that answer questions, listen to the ramblings and allow people to develop some skill to go with their sometimes active imaginations
True JP. But when looking at the models you have to look at overall trends as well. Sure, it may happen. We will see.

Actually, the latest shear map has the shear alittle lower...Link Between 10 to 20kts. Still not perfect, but alittle better.
Lane, don't know if we have any in here now or not, but we do have gulf coasters in here from time to time especially when the Gulf is active.

SJ
Afternoon Stormy. Hope you had a great day on the boat.

Yea, the blobs are interesting if you have not looked yet.

SJ
Like I said earlier, for development we will need the shear to drop, and persistance. I still dont see any great pressure falls along this old frontal boundrary, so right now I think we are in watch mode.
Lane I live on the LA gulf coast
Thel,
Some tstorms chased us in off the water so I've been looking at your blobs. What it looks like to me is that all 3 areas are moving to the ene and that the part that is making it appear as though it is moving south is really the cloud tops being pushed away by shear... ? I don't know...
hmmm..... not sure what to make outta the shear situation..... maybe whe MJO will make an "abrupt" appearance?

btw, looks like our storm east of georgia, appears to be losing those cold cloud tops, and seems less impressive.... not sure if this is a cycle, or trend.....

could it be moving into an area of lower sst's?

(and my most sincere apologies to code1, for the "man" comment.....hope you will give me a chance code! ;) Still would like to get mail from you, but hopefully you haven't "convicted" me yet! I have came to the realization, that I have upset some of the "old time bloggers"..... my intentions are benevolent.......
195. code1
Check your mail dear Stormy2day.
That very well could be the case stormy, but it still interests me that most of the models show some left over of this whole thing hanging around the SE coast pretty far out in the forecast period. Nothing organized, but obviously remenants fo this thing.

SJ
And I just think "code1" is kind of a silly name for a weather blog...

But then again so is "quakeman55"--so named years ago when I used to play a game called Quake and I like seeing "speed limit 55" signs on the highway...okay now that's retarded and ends my juvenile comments. LOL
And on that note, is it possible to change your handle?
And unfortunately, quakeman, our names our pretty close, too. But I don't think anyone will confuse us cause I rarely post in here.

Peace, ya'll.
200. code1
No need for apology thel, we are all here for the same outcome. :-)
Sorry quake, was here before you and will be here after you and others are gone. Have a great day blogging all!
Just perusing the weblog entries to find out the latest in the tropics and to see if there's anything of remote concern for the Gulf of Mexico. Gotta love the wind shear for the lack of storms but hate it for the lack of discernable rainfall this summer. Thank goodness for the rain & thunderstorms here today (I'm in Ft Walton Bch) -- I was starting to think we were *never* going to see any moisture this summer!

Good luck and thank you to everyone who's been sharing your great information and links! *smiles*

(Btw, when I get more time on the computer, I'll need to check out some of you all's weblogs!)
Just for the record I meant changing my handle in case that confused code1 or anyone else...just don't want quakeman55 anymore, but I don't know if I can change it...
SJ - yes, had a good day out on the boat. A tstorm chased us in and now that I look at the radar, I think we could have stayed out. Lot of cloud cover but very limited area with action ...wish I could get better at looking at the skies and having an idea what is going to happen.
Now that is a tough one stormy. I'd like to be able to look at imagery and be able to tell what is going to happen.

What you need is one of those GPS with XM sat radar. I have to get one. Think Garmin makes it.
I have a Garmin but of course...didn't get the one with the sat radar. Silly me, I figured I could just look at the sky!
what up sj?

My god is code "captain" of this blog? This blog has had such a good run today (compared to yesterday.. GREAT) then we have to get off track just like I am now.
ps..very valid point stormy2day

nice outflow in NW quad shaping up. Do any models still have a low in the yucatan forming?
I've had the Garmin less than a year ...wonder if they would take a trade-in? :-)
I don't think so Buhdog, but I was only really paying attention to the E coast when I looked at them.

Good to see ya.

SJ
Don't know stormy, but you can usually sell it on ebay. You do take loose a little, but that is what I did when I upgraded. Soon as I can afford the radar version I am on it.

210. code1
Sorry folks. Didn't mean to come across as "captain" of this blog. I happen to care for others here. Will not bother with you again. Will just be happy to read Dr. M and stay to myself until the troublemongers go away again as soon as storm season is over. Happy blogging ya'll!
shear in the gulf is really low....

which shear levels to we monitor...800-500hpa or 800-200hpa
I'm in NC less than 100 miles fro the coast and our local meteorologist aren't worried in fact they even stopped mentioning the blob off our coast. They all are in agreement that it won't amount to anything and will move out Tuesday to sea as just a blob. It wasn't even mentioned on the NWS site for North or South Carolina. What are the models showing?
456, i believe the 850-500 is fine unless there's already something big out there already.
Usually the 850-200 mb level will give you the best indication of shear out there.
Buhdog, the CMC shows a little something in the BOC but that's it. Nothing to amount to anything. I saw the GFDL for 91E, though, and it looks like it's going to be pretty strong. The EPac sure is moving this season.
Ok, don't listen to me. lol
As I hope you will not stay to yourself...calling people troublemongers is not the nicest thing to post in season or out of season. Thelmores and others were not causing any problems dude...have a beer and have some fun blogging when you can!

SJ my wife needs your EMail in regular form so she can get you that link..sorry it has taken a while. We have some articles coming out in North and South Carolina this week...look for them! Could I make a referance to your site in the interview?
Yeah why is the EPAC heating up all of the sudden and the Atlantic is still plagued by shear? There just seems to be a lot more moisture out that way for some reason.
221. code1
Thank you thels for the mail!!! You do understand! Happy blogging to ya.
222. WSI
"images are needed as part of the posting process. "

I agree! Hence, post them as links! Everyone is happy! Really is easy if you think about it.

"The complaining is without merit, the images add to the blog."

I am sure that is why the Dr. kindly asked everyone to respect others with them, right?

Sorry, there is just no reason not to link them.

Anyway, I am off too. Enjoy the blob watching!
"What it looks like to me is that all 3 areas are moving to the ene and that the part that is making it appear as though it is moving south is really the cloud tops being pushed away by shear... ?" - stormy2day

stormy, i think you may be on to something here, starting to see some "signs" of this...



"troublemongers"

hey code, my wife call's me worse than that! :)

enjoy the rest of your day code, and as i told you, i like your spunk, and caring attitude! ;)
They show it develop amaz, but hey also show it go out to sea. They do show some remenant 850mb vort head back toward the coast late in the forecast period, but it is not organized.

The NHC also mentioned it.
code...sorry... you guys made up...I shall not egg on anymore...:)

thanks andrew92
amazinwxman, they are most likely right. Right now, all of the models show it not doing anything and moving to the northeast. The only exception is the ukmet which still keeps it weak and takes it sse. Should be nothing to worry about.
"Thank you thels for the mail!!! You do understand! Happy blogging to ya." - code1

code1, that was very nice of you.... but don't give me "too" much credit! LOL
lol, SJ got there before me. Your welcome buhdog.
JB's post today said that the tropics will probably become the big story once again after the heat in the plains dies down. He said that the eastward movement of the upward pulse (currently in the pacific) could set off 2 or 3 tropical developments! The first problem is from the system off the NC coast which could either speed off NE or miss the connection and move up the eastern seaboard. The second problem is the wave near 54W 16N. He said that wave should be in the SW Atlantic toward the end of this week or the beginning of next week and could present some problems. Another area he is concerned about is an alley from the Caribbean into the SW Gulf which will have to be watched in the coming weeks. Basically he is saying to expect the lid to come off the tropics and for a major upswing in activity to occur between now and the end of the month.

SJ ...email me your personal address so I can get that to you......


be back in an hour...Kudos to everyone for such a lo-key blog. After reading last nights posters...I feel like I am at disney
Interesting post 23...but where does the connection with the heat in the Plains come from?
I think there may be several vortices jumping around in there. The seem to form around the convection and then the convection either dies off or gets pushed off. There is the start of another ball of convection further to the W now.
If this lower are of convection does develop in to anything the models never saw it coming this far S. It looks to be about due E of Sav. where the heaviest convection is.
That's true, the models seem to all have it much farther north now.
Do you think there's a possibility that could come south into NE florida?
lol, it does jp
A little off topic, but what do ya'll think of the wave that just moved off of Africa? As far as the models go, the shear looks lax ahead of the wave.
239. WSI
Lots of dry air off Africa and in the Atlantic Andrew92.


Here.

And here.

And here too..
Thought I would stop in for a cold drink and a look at the loops. I see a few things that interest me...for example, if anyone want a good close-up of what a hybrid low pressure center looks like, go to the GHCC visible loop, set to animate and set map to Lat/Lon, then right click your mouse near 38.0 N, 67.6 W. Note the exposed LLC to the north and the convection to the south. Observe that the upper flow over the convection to the south of the system has a definite anti-cyclonic curl. A pure extratropical system would be a deep low and would not have anti-cyclonic upper-level flow nearby. The NAM seemed to initialize the location of this feature the most accurately amongst the current model runs, and the phase analysis shows a borderline shallow tropical low. The low-level center is exposed due to the northerly shear over the system. Since the system is moving NE now, I do not expect it to develop much.

Another interesting observation on the same GHHC visible loop can be seen by zooming in in the vicinity of 31.0 N, 77.0W, directly over the convective mass off of the South Carolina Coast. If you look at the flow of the upper-level clouds, it seems the shear may have slacked off somewhat over the system since yesterday, as you can see some degree of outflow towards the NE. The spokes of outflow on the south side seem to indicate stronger shear south of the system. It is also interesting to look at the direction of the low-level cumulus convergence bands over land during the heating of the day to get a good idea of the general surface flow in the vicinity.

There are so many arguments sometimes in this blog I wish I could make a graph of the diurnal cycle so I could avoid the times of peak heating of tempers;) I just want to point out that Stormy2day made a good point about people on dial-up being able to block images if their refresh times are getting too long. Mozilla Firefox is a very nice browser that makes this very easy to do: Mozilla.com provides Firefox for Windows, Linux, and Mac OS X in a variety of languages. To get Firefox 1.5.0.4, download it here.

After installing Firefox, to block downloading of images, open the drop-down menu named Tools, right click on Options to bring up the options dialog, right click on Content, then uncheck the Load Images box. Tools->Options->Content->uncheck Load Images.

Peace on Earth, goodwill to all of our blogging brothers and sisters ;)
Looks like the the low off the SC coast has a little potential according the NHC 5:300pm update.
"I think there may be several vortices jumping around in there."

agreed, definately more than one.......

"It looks to be about due E of Sav. where the heaviest convection is."

maybe even farther south than that now......

and that leads to "Do you think there's a possibility that could come south into NE florida?"

not sure if anybody else thinks this is possible, but i certainly do..... it really depends if there are "two" main vortice's..... i see one to the ne of the convection, and all the large convection is being bown sw, or there could be another vortice near the high cloud tops which have been persistant.

i do think it is moving towards a little cooler waters.....



I wonder what we are gonna see later tonight with the diurnal max? Could really blow up good!
"THE SECOND LOW...CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECOND LOW IS POSSIBLE."

well, well, well....... looks like the scenerio of stalling may play out.....

nice to get a little recognition for MYB! :)
"This system is not a threat to become a tropical storm today--there's too much wind shear, cold air, and cool water. However, the Hurricane Center is giving it the chance of slowly acquiring tropical characteristics if it can remain south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina for the next two days." -Dr Masters

Is it me, or does that seem to be an "add on" from this morning? LOL
Hmmm, this is getting interesting. I'll tell you what, if it does, we wouldn't be sorry for the rain.
Looks to me like this Mess is slowly drifting SW right now.
hey 92 how are you
If this thing does form it ruins stormtops forcast
hi taz, i'm doing good
Shhhhh! He can hear you!
wouldn't that be a surprise lol
If this thing does form it ruins stormtops forcast

And we'd finally have some ammo to throw back in his face :-P
Plus he'd disappear until mid-August or something...
He hears all, sees all, says all, but knows nada.
Latest NAM want to bring it back to the coast...
Oh here is the link....Link
its 106 right now
What peaked my interest last night, is that more often then not when we get development off the SE coast like this, the models always over do these systems moving to the NE. They more often then not tend to move back to the West or SW. Well, we may have the first senerio going on, slowing down. Now we just have to back off the wind shear a bit.
The cyclone phase shows that the NAM isn't really sure what to do with it; it has it stay in the same place for a few days; however, you can see that it goes to the west at the end of the period. Link
Definately possible. Thats what has worried me a bit from the start.
wg03, I agree with you about how these SE coast storms tend to stall for a few days, then move back to the west before getting pulled up the coast.

Yes, it is definitely confused. Maybe it needs some advil. lol
Joe Bastardi has actually upped his July numbers, from 1 to 2 tropical cyclones in July to 2 to 3.


I don't normally find myself agreeing with Storm Top, but 0 or 1 seems the more likely number.

Of course, since I was here infrequently last year, and here less than a month this year, maybe I'll find myself agreeing with ST all the time.

Joe is counting on the Carolina's disturbance becoming sub-tropical or tropical, but that still would mean additional 1 to 2 cyclones in July.
Well if the shear reduces significantly like all the models are showing, then the extra cyclones become more feasible.
Why do you listen to him (AccuWeather)?
Its gonna be close StormW. Right now it could go either way. This one may get interesting. I think for the first time in my life, I may actually agree with Bastardi!..LOL
I thought Dr. M said that the models were not calling for anything for the next 6 days or so due to shear. Has something changed??
I have seen the models slowly backing off on the high shear. The changes should begin this week.
well, whatever it is, it looks like it is "still" heading SOUTH!!

looks to be almost due due east of jacksonville already!!! LOL
Finally the site is back! That was weird.
Wow it was down for a whole hour. Now it's time to play catch-up with everyone!
this storm IS NOT forecasted to turn SE.....

but if it does, i think we may have td2.....

and if this plays out, cape canaveral looks like a likely target.....

ok, flames away! LOL
testing...
OK that posted. Where is everyone? The outage scare them off?

Maybe they all found better things to do while losers like me sat there and waited for the site. Haha
Thank goodness ST hasn't used this lull in blog activity to make his usual ramblings though...