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A Quiet Start to the Eastern Pacific Hurricane and Northwest Pacific Typhoon Seasons

By: Jeff Masters 3:13 PM GMT on May 13, 2016

The 2016 Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially begins on Sunday, May 15, and should be quieter than the crazy 2015 season. Last year set a record for the most major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific east of 140°W, with nine such storms (reliable records go back to 1971.) One of those 2015 hurricanes was Earth's strongest tropical cyclone ever measured, Hurricane Patricia of October 2015, which reached astonishing sustained wind speeds of 215 mph. The year 2016 should see fewer major hurricanes in the northeast Pacific, thanks to cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and less favorable upper-level winds brought on by what appears to be an emerging La Niña event. In their May 12 update, NOAA predicted a 70% chance of La Niña conditions emerging by the August-September-October peak of the Northern Hemisphere hurricane season. SSTs off the Pacific coast of Mexico this week were about 1°C (1.8°F) cooler than what they were last year in mid-May (Figure 1), and will likely continue to cool (relative to average) during the next few months. The forecast for the 2016 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 6 by Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. This is close to the average numbers (east of 140°W) from 1981 - 2010, which were 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. The 2015 Northeast Pacific hurricane season (east of 140°W) featured 18 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 9 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Change in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between May 11, 2015 and May 11, 2016. Ocean temperatures are much cooler this year along the equator in the Pacific, signifying the transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions. SSTs are also much cooler off the Pacific coast of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

A quieter hurricane season likely for Hawaii
Hawaii, which has been under the gun during the past two hurricane seasons--with one direct hit by a tropical storm (Iselle in 2014) and a number of close calls--should get a bit of a break in 2016. About half as many named storms form in the Central Pacific between 120°W and 180°W in a La Niña year, compared to an El Niño year. Hawaii is about three times less likely to be impacted by a tropical cyclone in a La Niña vs. an El Niño year, according to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University.

We've already had one hurricane in the Central Pacific this year--Category 2 Hurricane Pali became the earliest hurricane on record in the Central Pacific on January 11, 2016, and later dissipated on January 14. This storm was more a carry-over from the record-breaking Central Pacific hurricane season of 2015, though, which had exceptionally low wind shear and record-warm ocean temperatures. In 2015, the Central Pacific (between 140°W and 180°W) had 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes form in or track through the basin--all of which were new records. Between 1981 - 2010, the Central Pacific had an average of 3.4 named storms, 1.5 hurricanes, and 0.7 major hurricanes form or track through the basin per year.


Figure 2. MODIS visible satellite image of Hurricane Pali taken on the afternoon of January 12, 2016. At the time, Pali was at peak strength--a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Hurricane Pali became the earliest hurricane on record in the Central Pacific Ocean on January 11, 2016, and dissipated on January 14. The previous record for the earliest hurricane in the Central Pacific was Hurricane Ekeka on January 30, 1992. El Niño played a role in the formation of Pali. According to the discussion issued January 7, 2016 by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, "This low-latitude out-of-season system has tapped into significant directional shear of the low-level winds, with an El Niño related westerly wind burst south of the system, and prevailing easterly trade winds to the north providing the large scale conditions conducive for development." Image credit: NASA.

Look for the season's first storm in early June
Several recent runs of the 16-day GFS model forecast have shown a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Agatha forming in the Eastern Pacific between Mexico and Hawaii during the last week of May, though these forecasts are too far in the future to be reliable. According to the Weather Company's long-range forecasting expert Dr. Mike Ventrice, the Eastern Pacific has a good chance of seeing its first storm of the season during the period May 30 - June 5, though. A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event is currently gaining amplitude over the Indian Ocean, and the European weekly model projects this MJO will pass through the Eastern Pacific during May 30 - June 5. The MJO often provides the necessary kick to spin up a tropical storm, especially over the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic Basins.


Figure 3. Super Typhoon Maysak as seen from the International Space Station at approximately 6 pm EDT Tuesday March 31, 2015 (just after dawn local time.) At the time, Maysak was a Category 5 storm at peak intensity, with sustained winds of 160 mph (as estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) and a central pressure of 905 mb (as estimated by the Japan Meteorological Agency.) Maysak was the strongest typhoon ever observed in the Northwest Pacific prior to April, and one of only three Category 5 typhoons ever observed in the Northwest Pacific so early in the year. Maysak killed nine and did $8.5 million in damage to several small islands in the Federated States of Micronesia, making it Micronesia's second deadliest and second most expensive storm in recorded history.

TSR predicts a below-average Northwest Pacific typhoon season
Last year was one of the busiest typhoon seasons on record in the Northwest Pacific, with a record number of Category 3 and stronger storms--sixteen--and an ACE index that was the third highest on record (479, behind only 2004's ACE of 481 and 1997's ACE of 568). This year should be much quieter, though. The May 7 forecast for the 2016 Northwest Pacific typhoon season made by British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) calls for a below-active season with 22 named storms, 13 Category 1 or stronger typhoons, 6 major Category 3 or stronger typhoons, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 217. The long-term averages for the past 51 years are 26 named storms, 16 typhoons, 9 major typhoons, and an ACE of 298. TSR rates their skill level as modest for these late May forecasts--13% to 30% higher than a "no-skill" forecast made using climatology. TSR’s main predictor for their typhoon season forecast is the forecast sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during August - September 2016 in the region 5 ̊S - 5 ̊N, 140 ̊W - 180 ̊W, which they expect to be moderately cooler than average (-0.8°C from average.) Cool waters in this region are typically associated with stronger trade winds over the region 2.5°N-12.5°N, 120°E-180°E, the Northwest Pacific region where most major typhoons form. Stronger trade winds in that region tend to interfere with the amount of spin developing typhoons can get, leading to quieter typhoon seasons.

Using Dr. Phil Klotzbach's handy new Tropical Cyclone Activity stats page, we can see that the Northwest Pacific is off to a slow start this year. There have not been any named storms yet, and typically, we should have seen two by now. Last year, there had already been seven named storms in the Northwest Pacific by this point in the year, including three storms that became Category 5 typhoons.

Northern Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season underway
An area of disturbed weather formed on Thursday evening in the North Indian Ocean about 400 miles east of Sri Lanka. According to the Tropical Weather Discussion from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the disturbance has favorable conditions for development--low wind shear and very warm ocean waters about 2°C above average. Recent runs of the GFS and European model show this storm moving over Sri Lanka and South India on Sunday and Monday. The disturbance may have enough time over water to become the first tropical depression of the season in the North Indian Ocean, before interaction with land halts development. The Northern Indian Ocean has two tropical cyclone seasons--one that peaks in late May, just before the arrival of the Southwest Monsoon, and one that peaks in November, after the monsoon has waned. During the June - October peak of the monsoon, tropical cyclone formation is suppressed by the atmospheric circulation associated with the monsoon. This year's May tropical cyclone season has the potential to produce some unusually intense tropical cyclones, since SSTs across the basin are at record to near-record warm levels, 1 - 2°C above average.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 493. weathermanwannabe:

The last seven consecutive months of documented warming, through the NH Winter, has shattered all the records and pretty much nailed the lid on the coffin of the GW deniers.  And what is most notable is the extreme warming in the Arctic region as you look at the top of the recent charts:
Fig 1: Global map

 


Pretty much as projected. The arctic was projected to be impacted the most by the warming first, with the rest of the world catching up a bit later. The proverbial "canary in the coal mine".
502. MahFL
Quoting 498. washingtonian115:

I think the reason we saw a active MDR last year .


We had an active MDR ?, it was a Strong Elnino, right ?
Quoting 502. MahFL:



We had an active MDR ?, it was a Strong Elnino, right ?

504. MahFL
Quoting 503. washingtonian115:





5 named storms in the MDR is active ?
505. MahFL
A reminder for all, of where the MDR actually is :

Quoting 493. weathermanwannabe:

The last seven consecutive months of documented warming, through the NH Winter, has shattered all the records and pretty much nailed the lid on the coffin of the GW deniers. And what is most notable is the extreme warming in the Arctic region as you look at the top of the recent charts:
Fig 1: Global map




Yea, when I linearly detrended the HADCRUT4 time series, it became quite obvious that in the modern era (1950-present) there really was no appreciable pause to begin. Additionally, February 2016 was nearly tied with February 1878 for the largest positive deviation from the long-term upward trend in global temperatures. Not surprisingly, both of these exceptional anomalies occurred immediately following the peak of non-volcanic, multi-yr ,"hybrid" (East-Central Pacific) Super El Ninos (1876-78 & 2014-16).
Edit: The ongoing global temperature spike also appears to have exceeded what was observed in 1997-98. This actually makes sense considering that along w/ a warmer background state this year (which means that given all else is equal, the warmer bgd significantly expands area of the Equatorial Pacific that is above the "critical temperature" (~27-28C) to readily generate convection) having the core of a Super El Nino (wrt SST anomalies) centered closer to the International & Indo-Pacific Warmpool as is the case in a "hybrid" NINO will be more efficient at producing a positive global temperature response because its leading to a larger increase in SSTs underneath the areas of the Equatorial Pacific that exceed the aforementioned critical temp to generate convection. The alterations in tropical convection is what largely drives the ENSO-induced changes in quasi-standing Rossby Waves, Hadley Cell (in the case of NINOs, HC expansion), & global temperature spikes.

507. SLU
Quoting 504. MahFL:



5 named storms in the MDR is active ?


5 out of 11

Including 2 hurricanes and one major hurricane against the background of one of the strongest El Ninos in our lifetime.
508. SLU
Quoting 498. washingtonian115:

I think the reason we saw a active MDR last year was because the tropical waves were very strong.The itcz looks healthy so far and as we saw with our first wave it was very healthy and very well pronounced.Unlike in 2013 when we saw the opposite.....The precipitation in the sahara desert is once again above normal and the gulf of guinea is very cold which will only enhance the waves.While we may not see 2010 activity levels out in the MDR this year we could still see perhaps 3 or even 4 storms come from out of that region.I don't expect another 2005 but we didn't have a strong MDR season that year either and look at what happened.....


I agree. Even if the storms don't blossom in the deep tropics, they may originate from there and strengthen further west.
Levi has a sound analysis, but I agree with SLU that MDR activity is going to be influenced as much by Twave viability as by larger atmospheric patterns. I'm thinking about the vigorous waves from last year that persisted despite the el nino conditions. If we get similar ones this season we could end up with average to above average activity there. I'd need to look at Sahel forecast data before saying we should expect such Twaves, however.

What I am fairly certain about is that we can expect more landfalling storms in the basin this season. Hopefully they won't be really nasty ones like Mitch...
The rainfall/greenery in the Sahel is pretty evident this year so far (with the peak of their rainy season still to come in June):






511. ariot
Quoting 469. Qazulight:



There is at least one city from the time of Jesus that was know as a port city. I think it was Eppesus. (It was one of the ones that the Apostle Paul visited and now I cannot remember which city it was) the ruins of the ancient city are now several miles inland. Indicating that either there was a large rise in the local land mass in comparison to the sea, or the sea level dropped a lot.

In either case, those of Jesus time time that sold thier goods and waited for the second coming died broke.

If I were to give up, I would go see the glaciers, and what is left of the reefs. Life will continue, it is just some of the wonders that we have treasured will be gone.

Cheers
Qazuloght


It was built in the 10th century BC and it went through several human-forced "end times" from the likely perspective of its citizens, as it changed hands repeatedly. Imagine ancient warfare in your 'hood, and it would seem as if the world did end. They suffered earthquakes and other natural tragedies. They probably had some supernatural attribution over the years. I know I would have been scared and hiding in a cave!

I don't see AGW as end times either, but for some now, who have a limited perspective, although not as limited as the ancients, it might be a great upheaval.

Since we're now in the policy action / no action phase of AGW response as a global civilization, those of us in the U.S. and to some extent the non-arctic global north, have a difficult time understanding what it may be like for those now impacted.

In that regard, ancient stories of civilizations are interesting as all get out.
Quoting 510. weathermanwannabe:

The rainfall/greenery in the Sahel is pretty evident this year so far (with the peak of their rainy season still to come in June):





Need to start our Twave watch..... which reminds me I haven't seen Jason here for a while ....... :-)
I'm gone for now...... will check in later..... enjoy your Monday :-)
I'm new to posting here but I don't grasp the focus on MDR as to whether the season will be bad/exciting. Just off the top of my head/quick Google, many of the worst things to happen to the US have little/no connection.

1900 Galveston Hurricane (Cat 4, deadliest US landfall ever) - most development in Gulf after transiting Cuba in weak state.

1915 Galveston Hurricane (Cat 4, direct Houston area strike) - Only became organized as hurricane after reaching Carribean.

Camille (Cat 5 US landfall near New Orleans) - Homegrown

Carla (Cat 4 US landfall in Texas) - Homegrown

Katrina - (Cat 5, major landfall most expensive and deadliest modern US strike) -Homegrown

Rita ( Sub-900mb Cat 5, threatened to destroy Houston, multi-billion major US landfall) - Long track but did nothing until Bahamas.

Wilma (Cat 5, most intense Atlantic Basin ever, multiple destructive landfalls) - Homegrown

Gustav (Cat 4, threatened to destroy Houston and New Orleans) - Homegrown

Ike (mutant Cat 2, massive Galveston-Houston damage second only to Katrina excluding Sandy) - MDR but transited Cuba the hard way and redeveloped major intensity in Gulf.

"Superstorm" Sandy (Peak Cat 3, became mutant hybrid inflicting $75 billion in damage to New York area) - Homegrown.
I was wrong a few weeks ago when I suggested that we might see an early season E-Pac system and the current invest does not look too promising but only the 2nd day of the season; have to start keeping an eye on the MJO pattern for June-July.  Many times in this period, some of the energy in the E-Pac near Central America can consolidate into an E-Pac storm or consolidate in the Western Caribbean for an early season storm on the Atlantic side:

516. SLU
Quoting 514. ProPoly:

I'm new to posting here but I don't grasp the focus on MDR as to whether the season will be bad/exciting. Just off the top of my head/quick Google, many of the worst things to happen to the US have little/no connection.

1900 Galveston Hurricane (Cat 4, deadliest US landfall ever) - most development in Gulf after transiting Cuba in weak state.

1915 Galveston Hurricane (Cat 4, direct Houston area strike) - Only became organized as hurricane after reaching Carribean.

Camille (Cat 5 US landfall near New Orleans) - Homegrown

Carla (Cat 4 US landfall in Texas) - Homegrown

Katrina - (Cat 5, major landfall most expensive and deadliest modern US strike) -Homegrown

Rita ( Sub-900mb Cat 5, threatened to destroy Houston, multi-billion major US landfall) - Long track but did nothing until Bahamas.

Wilma (Cat 5, most intense Atlantic Basin ever, multiple destructive landfalls) - Homegrown

Gustav (Cat 4, threatened to destroy Houston and New Orleans) - Homegrown

Ike (mutant Cat 2, massive Galveston-Houston damage second only to Katrina excluding Sandy) - MDR but transited Cuba the hard way and redeveloped major intensity in Gulf.

"Superstorm" Sandy (Peak Cat 3, became mutant hybrid inflicting $75 billion in damage to New York area) - Homegrown.



Bad storms can happen in quiet years eg Joaquin 2015 but based on the historical record, the most active seasons tend to have most of their activity originate from the MDR. Quieter seasons tend to have more "homegrown" activity but these storms don't usually generate as much ACE as the classical Cape Verde-type major hurricanes.
Out of curiosity, given the ongoing profound divergence in the phase, intensity of the various AMO indices, I decided to look @ how well each index predicted Atlantic TC activity (ACE) at this range (AMJ). The 3 indices examined include NOAA's AMO Index (Detrended North Atlantic SSTs (0-70N) via Kaplan's Extended SSTv2), Van Oldenborgh et al's (2009) AMO index (North Atlantic SSTs (25-60N, 7-75W) regressed against global mean via ERSSTv3b), & an index I derived using Klotzbach/Gray's (2008) methodology (Far North Atlantic SSTs (50-60N, 50-10W) via HADISST and subtropical-tropical North Atlantic SLP (0-50N, 70-10W) via HADSLP2, then the components are weighted to compute the final index as follows 0.6*SST-0.4*SLP) To compare the validity of these time series wrt predicting Atlantic TC activity, and since the modern numbers are inflated with smaller uncertainties, different observational platforms, etc. the standardization of the North Atlantic ACE time series was split in 2 @ 1950, thus, the standardization of the 1880-1949 & 1950-2015 data was performed separately... Overall, Phil Klotzbach's AMO index was the best predictor (@ this range) for Atlantic TC activity, NOAA's AMO was 2nd, & Van Oldenborgh's performed the worst. What's very strange about all of this is that Klotzbach's index actually performed better @ predicting N Atlantic TC activity before 1950. NOAA's AMO index was the best after 1950. On the other hand, Phil Klotzbach's index has performed unusually well near AMO phase changes (~1900, 1925, 1970, & now) & in mid-late 1930s & 1940s... I.e. Klotzbach/Gray's (2008) AMO index is most useful during periods of limited predictability.

Correlation coefficients of each index for the entire time series:
Klotzbach/Gray (2008): 0.478
NOAA's AMO: 0.458
Van Oldenborgh (2009): 0.391

Standrdized North Atlantic Hurricane ACE & the preceding AMJ AMO indices time series (1880-Present).
Blue= North Atlantic ACE
Red= NOAA's AMO
Yellow= Van Oldenborgh (2009)
Purple= Klotzbach/Gray (2008)
Quoting 507. SLU:



5 out of 11

Including 2 hurricanes and one major hurricane against the background of one of the strongest El Ninos in our lifetime.
Thank you but since it was me and he thinks I'm stupid he's questioning my reason for posting that.So what if the storms didn't make it towards the caribbean and even if they did a wall of shear was waiting for them.However these storms formed against the odds as the condition for them were far from ideal .
520. SLU
Quoting 518. Webberweather53:

Out of curiosity, given the ongoing profound divergence in the phase, intensity of the various AMO indices, I decided to look @ how well each index predicted Atlantic TC activity (ACE) at this range (AMJ). The 3 indices examined include NOAA's AMO Index (Detrended North Atlantic SSTs (0-70N) via Kaplan's Extended SSTv2), Van Oldenborgh et al's (2009) AMO index (North Atlantic SSTs (25-60N, 7-75W) regressed against global mean via ERSSTv3b), & an index I derived using Klotzbach/Gray's (2008) methodology (Far North Atlantic SSTs (50-60N, 50-10W) via HADISST and subtropical-tropical North Atlantic SLP (0-50N, 70-10W) via HADSLP2, then the components are weighted to compute the final index as follows 0.6*SST-0.4*SLP) To compare the validity of these time series wrt predicting Atlantic TC activity, and since the modern numbers are inflated with smaller uncertainties, different observational platforms, etc. the standardization of the North Atlantic ACE time series was split in 2 @ 1950, thus, the standardization of the 1880-1949 & 1950-2015 data was performed separately... Overall, Phil Klotzbach's AMO index was the best predictor (@ this range) for Atlantic TC activity, NOAA's AMO was 2nd, & Van Oldenborgh's performed the worst. What's very strange about all of this is that Klotzbach's index actually performed better @ predicting N Atlantic TC activity before 1950. NOAA's AMO index was the best after 1950. On the other hand, Phil Klotzbach's index has performed unusually well near AMO phase changes (~1900, 1925, 1970, & now) & in mid-late 1930s & 1940s... I.e. Klotzbach/Gray's (2008) AMO index is most useful during periods of limited predictability.

Correlation coefficients of each index for the entire time series:
Klotzbach/Gray (2008): 0.478
NOAA's AMO: 0.458
Van Oldenborgh (2009): 0.391

Standrdized North Atlantic Hurricane ACE & the preceding AMJ AMO indices time series (1880-Present).
Blue= North Atlantic ACE
Red= NOAA's AMO
Yellow= Van Oldenborgh (2009)
Purple= Klotzbach/Gray (2008)



+100000
Quoting 475. Geoboy645:

OK can I just something here. You guys talk about Global warming way too much. On this blog It's all about global warming and nothing else unless something happens in California,The NE,or Florida, but when there's a severe weather outbreak in the Midwest or plains other than me and a few others there is nothing at all. Now I know I'm probably gonna get yelled at because OH NO! we don't have climate change being put everywhere for everything!
Aye, que cholo! You should take that up with both Dr. Masters and Bob Henson. Send the two a detailed email explaining that they write about GW too much for your tastes, insist that they stop, then order them to focus on only those subjects which interest you. As soon as they realize you're the only person for whom they're writing this blog, they'll doubtless do whatever they have to to please you. ;-)
Quoting 485. RitaEvac:

10-12 inches of rain this morning near Port Aransas and Corpus Christi, TX

Blob Con 1 and 2 in effect




Which is prezactly why TX will get storms B, C, D, E and F. Hear tell, though, we're in for a dry July-March, People should have dug ponds like crazy this winter to capture this water.
Quoting 518. Webberweather53:

Out of curiosity, given the ongoing profound divergence in the phase, intensity of the various AMO indices, I decided to look @ how well each index predicted Atlantic TC activity (ACE) at this range (AMJ). The 3 indices examined include NOAA's AMO Index (Detrended North Atlantic SSTs (0-70N) via Kaplan's Extended SSTv2), Van Oldenborgh et al's (2009) AMO index (North Atlantic SSTs (25-60N, 7-75W) regressed against global mean via ERSSTv3b), & an index I derived using Klotzbach/Gray's (2008) methodology (Far North Atlantic SSTs (50-60N, 50-10W) via HADISST and subtropical-tropical North Atlantic SLP (0-50N, 70-10W) via HADSLP2, then the components are weighted to compute the final index as follows 0.6*SST-0.4*SLP) To compare the validity of these time series wrt predicting Atlantic TC activity, and since the modern numbers are inflated with smaller uncertainties, different observational platforms, etc. the standardization of the North Atlantic ACE time series was split in 2 @ 1950, thus, the standardization of the 1880-1949 & 1950-2015 data was performed separately... Overall, Phil Klotzbach's AMO index was the best predictor (@ this range) for Atlantic TC activity, NOAA's AMO was 2nd, & Van Oldenborgh's performed the worst. What's very strange about all of this is that Klotzbach's index actually performed better @ predicting N Atlantic TC activity before 1950. NOAA's AMO index was the best after 1950. On the other hand, Phil Klotzbach's index has performed unusually well near AMO phase changes (~1900, 1925, 1970, & now) & in mid-late 1930s & 1940s... I.e. Klotzbach/Gray's (2008) AMO index is most useful during periods of limited predictability.

Correlation coefficients of each index for the entire time series:
Klotzbach/Gray (2008): 0.478
NOAA's AMO: 0.458
Van Oldenborgh (2009): 0.391

Standrdized North Atlantic Hurricane ACE & the preceding AMJ AMO indices time series (1880-Present).
Blue= North Atlantic ACE
Red= NOAA's AMO
Yellow= Van Oldenborgh (2009)
Purple= Klotzbach/Gray (2008)



Did you use excel? Or do you use some other program to run the correlations?
524. OKsky
Quoting 517. washingtonian115:

Look I'm tired of you coming for me.I know exactly where the MDR is and you're trying to make me out to be stupid and you didn't need to post that map smart ___.Yes in a year where the MDR was forecast to be dead and a raging el el nino was taking shape it was pretty active.This is my last time acknowledging you on here as your intentions with me obviously aren't good.Good bye


One positive side to you guys being condescending to each other is that newbs like me don't have to google stuff or ask "stupid" questions to understand what you are talking about, lol.
Quoting 523. VAbeachhurricanes:



Did you use excel? Or do you use some other program to run the correlations?


I used a combination of Excel & Matlab
526. SLU
Quoting 519. washingtonian115:

Thank you but since it was me and he thinks I'm stupid he's questioning my reason for posting that.So what if the storms didn't make it towards the caribbean and even if they did a wall of shear was waiting for them.However these storms formed against the odds as the condition for them were far from ideal .


Yes even looking at the 2015 tracks you can see the position of the huge TUTT last year near PR which killed all MDR activity. That I think will be the main difference with this year. There will be no TUTT on that scale to kill the MDR storms and they are likely to balloon past 60W.
Gotta a teaser blob (tb) in the Bay of Campeche.
Probably heading to Florida.
Just off the East Coast of the U.S. is still the hot spot of tropical storm formation.



Quoting 525. Webberweather53:



I used a combination of Excel & Matlab


Interesting that they all seem like pretty noisy correlations. None you'd really bet the farm on.
Quoting 529. VAbeachhurricanes:



Interesting that they all seem like pretty noisy correlations. None you'd really bet the farm on.


Keep in mind these indices are only measuring the AMO, thus we should expect at most a moderate correlation to Atlantic TC activity because we're not accounting for other major seasonal forcings such as ENSO, QBO, & directly measuring tropical atlantic wind shear, instability, strength of the A-B high, zonal winds (trades), Sahel Rainfall/AEW intensity, etc. The correlations may also contain unnecessary noise from the lead & length @ which the indices are examined, expanding the length (perhaps including January-June for ex) &/or decreasing the lead time to the peak of the hurricane season would likely result in higher correlations.
Whooomph

Quoting 530. Webberweather53:



Keep in mind these indices are only measuring the AMO, thus we should expect at most a moderate correlation to Atlantic TC activity because we're not accounting for other major seasonal forcings such as ENSO, QBO, & directly measuring tropical atlantic wind shear, instability, strength of the A-B high, zonal winds (trades), Sahel Rainfall/AEW intensity, etc. The correlations may also contain unnecessary noise from the lead & length @ which the indices are examined, expanding the length (perhaps including January-June for ex) &/or decreasing the lead time to the peak of the hurricane season would likely result in higher correlations.


Have you ever thought about doing a step back correlation?

Seeing how variables in 2014 correlate with TC numbers in 2015, for example.
If that meso-scale complex in the Gulf holds together all the way to Florida, the forecast rain pops are going to go up all over the State over the next 24-72 hours......................... :)



NOLA/Slidell NWS


Previous discussion... 

Short term...
thunderstorm coverage looks to be on an upward trend over the
next few days. This will first present itself over the western and
southern shore coastal sections of southeast la today and tonight. The
first of several disturbances can be seen this morning along the
western Gulf Coast. This area will move slowly westward today and
Tuesday. Sh/ts coverage will increase from the west and SW later
today and the sea breeze looks to get active as well during this
entire scenario. Should see the strongest thunderstorms develop
offshore and move inland disipating during the early morning hours
and developing over land during the late morning and afternoon
hours as the cbrz develops and move inland.

This first disturbance moves out of the area tuesnight. A short
reprieve follows before the next system moves in from the
northwest. This one will be due to a cold front approaching la. As
it moves out of East Texas...the associated line of sh/ts looks to
dampen as the front begins to slow and the activity moves eastward
away from the front Wednesday morning. But we should see some
redevelopment during the daylight hours.

The third disturbance moves into the area Thursday. This one will
have a little better focus as it rides along the old frontal axis
which will by this time be a stalled trough axis just north of the
coast by Thursday afternoon. The stalled trough will also act as a
conveyor for eastward moving systems on Friday to take advantage
of all sfc variables causing a very efficient rainfall process.

The front that stalls along the coast does so due to winds
becoming uniform in the vertical greatly reducing the progressive
forcing. This is also the same indication that brings about the
thinking of heavy rainfall. This process looks to be most
efficient Thursday through Friday. Tuesday and Wednesday should be
wet days but they will simply help saturate the area first. We
will also see some upper support during the Thursday-Friday frame
as well enhancing the activity.

There will be opportunity to find strong thunderstorms each day
Monday through Friday. There is also a marginal risk of severe
weather for Monday through Tuesday. But the best chances for seeing
severe weather will be Thursday and Friday. Each day will likely
bring the possibility of waterspout activity and wind gusts to 40
mph. Thursday and Friday may see this activity enhanced a bit
along with the heavy rainfall.

Long term...
the stalled boundary gets a weak reinforcement Saturday and moves
just enough southward to bring relatively drier weather for the
weekend. Don't take the word drier as meaning no rain
around...there will still be some thunderstorm activity just not
nearly as much.
I think somewhere from the middle of next week til the last of the month we could possibly get a powerful hybrid Noreaster off the Southeast coast.
Quoting 511. ariot:
In that regard, ancient stories of civilizations are interesting as all get out.


I find them fascinating as well. We have a tendency to think we're all that and a bag of potato chips, but we really aren't. Good ol' mama nature puts us in our place right quick when she wants to.

It's too bad we didn't develop writing earlier than we did. For example, it would have been very interesting to read the writings around the time of our population collapse/near extinction 70,000 years ago (when global population dropped to just a few thousand). I think the perspectives during such times would have been quite eye opening.
The Saharan Heat Ridge looks fragmented. If that keeps up except way less SAL this year!
Quoting 510. weathermanwannabe:

The rainfall/greenery in the Sahel is pretty evident this year so far (with the peak of their rainy season still to come in June):









So it looks like Sally might not be up to putting the brakes on tropical development as much this year.

Last Month Was The Warmest April Ever Recorded, Continuing 7-Month Hot Streak
Climate scientists have been warning about this since at least the 1980s. And it's been bloody obvious since the 2000s. So where's the surprise?
05/16/2016 03:58 am ET


NASA announced some grim climate news over the weekend.

April was the warmest month ever recorded, with soaring temperatures that smashed the previous monthly record by the largest margin in known history.

Tomorrow's forecast could get spicy in Texas as an enhanced risk is schedule tomorrow.
The Bulls eye

Quoting 533. weathermanwannabe:

If that meso-scale complex in the Gulf holds together all the way to Florida, the forecast rain pops are going to go up all over the State over the next 24-72 hours......................... :)






Shear across the basin, from the Caribbean to the MDR is just ripping through. No way we get that pattern flip until closer to peak, but when La-Nina does come, it may do so in a big way. Little twin bloblettes are under the best environment. 30kts of shear over the Southern one. Should push some lower shear as it moves east, but not enough to do much. Think we have a good chance to get a near record La-Nina this year. Just so much energy that a rapid switch when it happens would not surprise me at all. If that were to verify then it's back to climate madness. Not that it ever left. Arctic rapidly melting faster than expected! Would be nice to see that on the front of a newspaper.
Will be very interesting to see how the competing blobs enhance each other today. Maybe they can consolidate north of the southern one. Impressive on satellite.
Quoting 544. DeepSeaRising:

Will be very interesting to see how the competing blobs enhance each other today. Maybe they can consolidate north of the southern one. Impressive on satellite.


I predict both of them to fall apart and dissapear
Quoting 497. Xyrus2000:



No disrespect to you, but I'm willing to bet hamsters to hand grenades that I am more informed than you are in regards to climate science. I've spent a considerable amount of time working not only with climatological data sets but have also worked on several of the climate models themselves. I'm a regular over at Neven's site, as well as many other well regarded sites dedicated to climate science.

Climate change is going to cause serious issues. There's no doubt that it will, and we're already getting a small taste of what that's going to mean. But running around claiming that it will be the end of the world is just as silly as those running around denying anything is happening and everything will be just fine.

The time for action was over thirty years ago, and every year we don't take action is just going to make things worse. Things will get ugly certainly. But climate change by itself will not kill off humanity. That is entirely up to us and how we ultimately deal with the consequences of our actions.

Yes I agree and no question you have more experience than me. I wanted your views regarding what's going on precisely because of your experience and keen insight. I'm just having a bit of cognitive dissonance around your view of the current state of the arctic, and was wondering if you're looking at some of the same info as I am. What's going on in the arctic and around the world is feeling way too surreal and it's affecting my sleep, etc. So I am reaching out to others who I respect and relate to. Anyway I got a take a break from all this now . . . more later.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Here's what the SPC is seeing.
Development later this evening and overnight in N.W. Oklahoma.


Then the energy transfers down to South Central Texas tomorrow evening. Could end up producing another storm event down in Corpus Christi over night into Wednesday morning.
Hope so. One of the "flattest" Jan-May periods for surfing for my stretch of the coastline from OBX southward to FL in recent memory. I've had no problems trying to free up time to get to the coast. My boards in the garage are covered in pollen and I used my Christmas gift of a new winter wetsuit only twice.

On a + note, my honey do list is all caught up.


Quoting 535. weatherbro:

I think somewhere from the middle of next week til the last of the month we could possibly get a powerful hybrid Noreaster off the Southeast coast.
Quoting 536. Xyrus2000:



I find them fascinating as well. We have a tendency to think we're all that and a bag of potato chips, but we really aren't. Good ol' mama nature puts us in our place right quick when she wants to.

It's too bad we didn't develop writing earlier than we did. For example, it would have been very interesting to read the writings around the time of our population collapse/near extinction 70,000 years ago (when global population dropped to just a few thousand). I think the perspectives during such times would have been quite eye opening.


Who's to say we didn't have writing 70,000 years ago, Maybe nobody was left to keep the server farms running.

Cheers
Qazulight