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A quiet Father's Day

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:43 PM GMT on June 18, 2006

Since the Atlantic continues to show minimal tropical weather activity today, I asked my 10-year old daughter to write today's blog as a Father's Day present for me. So here, in her own words, is her review of Al Gore's global warming movie, "An Inconvenient Truth", which we saw this weekend:

"Al Gore is really boring, but he has the right idea."

I don't disagree with either point, and will post my own longer review on Monday. Have a great Father's Day, everyone!

Jeff Masters/Ellie Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1stist.
Good Sunday Morning. Dr.master's
Again happy Father's Day.
Happy Father's Day to you. I think I like your daughter!
ST

I will say this again, the dust just makes the waves not delvelope as soon. because of this they move further west (a not dev. system moves with the low level flow)then they reach an area that is more conductive for dev. . this is bad for U.S. because then they are more often going to have a U.S. landfall. just take Katrina last year TD 10 disp. because of shear but rem. moved along to west and dev. into TD 12 then Katrina. if it had dev. earlier it more than likly would have turn to N. then ne out to sea. So the dust and shear may not be our Friend after all.
Ha ha, Dr. Masters' daughter got straight to the point!
In September 2004 tropical storm Jeanne form east of the Leeward Islands in just one day , making it a surprisse for the people of the NE Caribbean. Will that happen again with the tropical wave in the Central Atlantic???. I mean I think that no one is talking too much about this wave....
Now that is one smart and perceptive 10 year old girl. Al has a point and he is a human sedative. Is she old enough to run for office? Happy Fathers Day
refill- That is a highly unlikely area to see development in the month of June. But these days who knows right?

Congrats Dr. Masters, you clearly deserve to celebrate this day!
Happy Father's Day Dr. Master's! I think your daughter is right.
Happy Father's Day to All Father's out there. Especially Dr. Masters.
Heh. Even I agreed with Al Gore's point, I wouldn't support him. Even assuming he's totally right and will dedicate himself to it, he's so partisan otherwise he won't get anything done.
Yes Colby, on the one hand one would think he would be helpful, but he has behaved in such a childlike manner in the past. He is dangerous to be allowed to speak off the cuff for fear of telling some juvenile, pretentious lie. But we shouldn't dismiss him outright. After all, he did invent the internet.
not so good quiet father's day
A GOOD LOOKING TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 16N MOVING W
15-20 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. GRIDDED QUIKSCAT DATA HAS SHOWN THAT
THE WAVE IS VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE WIND FIELD. A CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 47W-52W. COMPUTER MODELS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE MONDAY AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE 18/1500 UTC CIMSS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER A HUGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS BEHIND THIS
WAVE.
The Gulf is interesting today. Theres a low crossing the east coast of Florida and another one being pushed off the coast of Texas by a building high. Theres a little something stirring off Pensacola and the mid level low thing is back in the Bay of Campeche.

It also appears a high entered from the southern Yucatan moving north.
have a very interesting low pressure system that just came off of Africa. As for whats over Floria, that I already know about because of the fact that its been raining on and off all day here.
After reading some of the posts regarding Al Gore's noble effort, it distresses me that few can get by politics when discussing policy. Global warming, by any definition, is not a political subject. Anyone or their children, who plan on living the lifestyle they now enjoy for at least another 10 or 20 years, should read anything and everything they can on the subject, then act now.

It's a sad state of affairs in the USA that politics trumps everything - even science and the possible future of this country and even humanity.

If you want to be a patriot, urge your congressman and senators to allocate large amounts of money for independent research. Maybe we can save the world after all.
thats Florida btw.

A question for Dr. Masters, this system that has dipped down into the south. It appears to be trying to get into the gulf, if so are we looking at the possiblity of tropical development from it?
We shouldn't be giving Al Gore such a hard time - afterall he invented the Internet! :-)
folks, it's the wave at 50W, 15 N that we need to keep our eye on - nothing else looking like there's any risk of development
Cheers everyone,

Longtime lurker, 2nd time poster.

I while back I predicted Hurricane Toni would materialize in Germany, specifically K-Town yesterday. Very proud and happy to say I was wrong.

Off topic but I felt the need to post.

I won't liter the blog after this but as long as I am here:

on the topic of global warming: the believers seem to mostly believe that the solution is renewable energy. Regardless of my doubts about the big GW (as opposed to the big GWB), I find myself unexpectedly aligned with the believers politically simply because of the amount of money that is sent to oil producing countries and companies. I think the US (et al non net oil exporters) would be hugely helped by becoming energy independent. I also would prefer our international political programs to be free(er) of hidden agendas (or the shodows of them.) I would really like to see the US free and clear to be what we really are in our hearts.

And of course on the chance that it can repair the environment (if damaged), it seems like even more incentive. Say Gore has only a 5% chance of being right, it is sort of like hurricane insurance I guess. Can we afford not to buy it.

Ciao a tutti
Donno The wave crossing fla is more interesting now in that it seems to be headed SW with high pressure building fast in Texas and the shear starting up its got some limited, potential

You know guys Gore was actually behind the legislative action that funded the creation of the internet. Republicans smeared him on the one we created the internet statement, but, considering their leaders speaking prowess well, its probably best not to.
Heh. Even I agreed with Al Gore's point, I wouldn't support him. Even assuming he's totally right and will dedicate himself to it, he's so partisan otherwise he won't get anything done.

He's too partisan, so he wouldn't be able to get anything done? I don't understand that. Bush is the most partisan present I think we've ever had, and look at everything he's been able to "accomplish."

And re Gore being boring....anybody feel like providing an example of a politician they don't find boring? Frankly, politicians that aren't boring are usually maniacs.

Republicans smeared him on the one we created the internet statement,

But....but....somebody on TV said Gore said he invented the internet....it must be true....
Well Im actually not sure exactly what direction the low in Fla is heading it just crossed a shear boundary. More west I think.
notabene I Loved everything you said!!!! awsome

and the problem specificly with the boring situation.....if anybody becomes not boring The media calls them Crazy so it's a no win situation...it's better to look calm and collected.....even though I think they should be more Real and Crazier.....

watching that Tropical Wave
The wave at 50 W looks impressive
As a person from Tenerife (canary islands) bit concerned after Delta, with all the stranage things happening do think we will get hit again?
came back inside - Ok the fla thing - on the water vapor just south of lake Okeechobee is possibly a center with activity drifting SW, also in the direction of movement. Some circulation but high pressure. Should go *poof* over water unless it takes advantage of the daily pressure drop round those parts.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 182103
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

What you are seeing in Fl is just typical afternoon seabreeze convergance enhanced by in inverted trough off the east coast. we have had 8 inches of rain the last two days = our yearly total practically. Nothing to look for here .....except maybe mosquitos

opsthereitis Ill let one of those way smarter than me answer you

Wow that was worse than I figured
. It was an extratropical storm. I remember The 1993 North American storm complex was the worst thing Ive been through. A little girl was killed less than half a mile from here by a tornado. I thought I was really going to die that night.
franck wrote:

Yes Colby, on the one hand one would think he would be helpful, but he has behaved in such a childlike manner in the past. He is dangerous to be allowed to speak off the cuff for fear of telling some juvenile, pretentious lie. But we shouldn't dismiss him outright. After all, he did invent the internet.

And there we have Gore's fatal flaw, in a nutshell: his opponents have his number, and he seems incapable of shedding the smears and false accusations made against him. You gotta have more Teflon in you to get anywhere in today's political climate. If "the liberals" can nominate nobody more electable than Gore and Kerry, "the conservatives" have nothing to worry about.

Afternoon all.

Looks like some new ocnvection is trying to fire around the 50W wave.
notabene - first off i would have voted for Al Gore had he been the nominee back in 1992 rather than Clinton. I fully supported his position on proper funding for NASA, the military, and his position on welfare. However 8 yrs with Clinton turned a articulate and impressive person into a boring, self centered shell of his former self. (BTW while i never was a Clinton fan he was NEVER boring). Gore did say in his speech outside the White House when he unveiled his internet in every school plan that he invented the internet. I was standing there when he said it. As for his currently global warming he's just blowing hot air!
That was a terrific blog entry today! Good job, Ellie! Happy Father's Day, Jeff.
Bush is the most partisan present I think we've ever had, and look at everything he's been able to "accomplish."

Notabene??
what exactly has he accomplished?? LOL... we have a few less bldgns and alot less marines.. but other than that ... I dont see where hes accomplished squat
Nice review Ellie.

Houstonian~ I think Notabene was being sarcastic...
jeffB....You gotta have more Teflon in you to get anywhere in today's political climate.

Did you see the purple heart-shaped band-aids they handed out to people at the 04 Republican Convention? You know why they did that, right?

So if they can call the recipient of a Silver Star a wimp, and get away with it, what possible combination of personal characteristics would be immune to such mendacity? They lie so routinely and brazenly that they just dare you to accuse them of lying. And then it's "partisan" he-said she-said and everybody gets bored and the lie becomes truth.

And besides, I'd rather vote for the guy who's competent at the job, not for the one I'd most like to have a beer with. As it were.

sts....do you know something Snopes doesn't know?

Houstonian....hence the quotation marks....also a veiled reference to this, which he doesn't seem to have the graces to even be embarassed about.
I think Gore said something like I took the initiative in creating the Internet." As on Larry King in 1999. That is the point at which Republicans such as Trent Lot took specific aim and started their campaign to discredit him, in every light, as being dishonest. I think the man was wronged, by people weve come to understand as being fundamentally dishonest (if not worse) themselves.
If you want to be a patriot, urge your congressman and senators to allocate large amounts of money for independent research. Maybe we can save the world after all.

i very much sympathize with Mr Gore, having been the Cassandra in a few organizations and several times. indeed, the so-called "debate" about global warming is utter and complete nonsense. absolutely and without a doubt, global warming is real, based upon hundreds of independent natural signals, has potentially devastating consequences, and noone is doing anything significant about it. the "debate" involves the deniers or the "jury is still out"-ists, on one side, and the Kyoto-like "we still have time to change"-ists on the other. both are wrong. being wrong makes for bad policy, although no doubt there are those who will dispute that.

it is far too late. the consequences will come. sure, something can be done to reverse the effects of warming, but they themselves won't have any appreciable effect until late in the 21st century, even if dramatic and done now.

what are needed, as i've written many times, are civilization-wide preparations for its consequences.

Mr Gore is doing only what he can. it isn't he who is pushing himself back into the presidential limelight. and, doing that, i think Mr Gore has a certain nobility and deserves respect.

to the critics that consider him boring, reality and science don't owe you entertainment. there is nothing vaguely entertaining in mastering the intricacies of physics or chemistry. not everything can be force-fed using a Bill Nye technqiue of educating. (no offense to Dr Nye intended. he does a fantastic job.) nevertheless, whether or not the science that's needed to be understood matches the extreme inanity of American Idol or not, the climate train is coming down the tracks and we're in the tunnel.
I think Gore said something like I took the initiative in creating the Internet."

yes, this thing was put to bed by Vince Cerf and Bob Kahn, people who ought to know. it's interesting how some folks fail to correct their facts when the mistake continues to serve their agenda.
Not to change subject here, but the convecntion on the W side fo t he 50w wave is still increasing. Will be interesting to see if it can work over the middle of the wave and hold.

Disney, I agree with you on the debate is useless concept. We need to prepare for the changes that are coming, as well as make drastic improvements in our energy production and consumption methods. More efficient production and usage of energy, as well as building and preparing for the expected climate changes. But that takes away from the world wide political game.

SJ
I don't think that little blob of convection will last the night.
I tend to agree WH, but the diurnal max is coming, and that blob is still expanding for know. Moisture to the S of the wave has also increased. Wait and see???
first..... Thanks to Ellie for her update.....

besides being boring..... Al Gore IMHO is an idiot..... and I don't use that term endearingly! LOL

But I recognize there is no way to win an argument against the "global warming zealots" so I won't even try......

lets try to make this simple..... the sun is in a "more active" period, emitting more "heat".....

the sun is hotter, what do you think that will do to the earth? perhaps make it a little hotter? Duh!

not too mention, there have been several areas that have spent "billions" of dollars to reduce pollution emissions..... certainly a good thing, we can all agree...... but the result in some cases, have caused the amount of sunlight reaching the ground to increase, causing the temperatures to rise!

in short, I think what man can, or cannot due to "control" global warming is vastly overstated......

should we pollute? of course not, but can we "control" global warming? of course not! no more than we could have prevented any of the past ice ages...... which WERE NOT caused by man, btw!

bottom line, the sun itself has more of an influence of global temperatures than "man" does..... and in a few years, when the "solar activity" declines, don't be surprised to see global temps stabilize, or even decrease..... of course if that happens, the global warming zealots will calim that is was "their policies" which have changed things around, when in fact, they had little or no influence. If you disagree, fine.... you have your opinion, I have mine..... and I don;t intend to argue it.... simply state it! ;)
But I recognize there is no way to win an argument against the "global warming zealots" so I won't even try......

but you just did. or, in other words, you get to write and say what you want but because you "won't even try" to debate, it's supposed to be improper for someone to challenge your statement?

where is your evidence that the sun is getting warming? have a link to some scientific data perhaps? or did you conjure this up in a dream after eating extra spicy spaghetti sauce?
"warming" --> "warmer".
Gore is a wreckable pawn. At a certain point he will be destroyed, and along with it the credibility of global warming evidence. Look at how Howard Dean was wrecked. Dean got a little hyper trying to pump up his campaign workers after a primary loss, and he was painted as a loon. The real reason Dean was defamed was because he was the only true anti-war candidate. When the media destroys Gore, the crisis of global warming will be wrecked in the public mind as well. The media control the whole thing. A few good scientists if given the proper exposure could bring significant public awareness. But they won't get the air time. It's not in the cards.
He's too partisan, so he wouldn't be able to get anything done? I don't understand that. Bush is the most partisan present I think we've ever had, and look at everything he's been able to "accomplish."

I wouldn't say that he's that partisan, I'd say he's very polarizing. But beside the point, Bush has accomplished very little ideologically. Most accomplishments (assuming you consider them such) were millitary/political.

And re Gore being boring....anybody feel like providing an example of a politician they don't find boring? Frankly, politicians that aren't boring are usually maniacs.

Boring? Not really. But he's shown himself to be irresponsible, and personally I think this movie is just a publicity ploy. The political comment(s) in the trailer sealed it.

But....but....somebody on TV said Gore said he invented the internet....it must be true....

Uh, no, as I recall, Gore said that on TV.

Just as a note here - it's not Gore's politics that make me unwilling to listen to him. It is (particularly) his behavior after the 2000 elections, which was disgraceful. It reflects badly on him as a person - not as a politician - and I refuse to listen to someone with the maturity of a newly-sprouted mushroom.
the sun is in a "more active" period, emitting more "heat".....

someone can state these kinds of things all they like, but without being quantitative, such explanations are pretty useless.

moreover, suppose warming were predominantly solar. the effects of warming are just as severe, no matter what it's source. indeed, since anthropogenic sources undoubtedly contribute something to warming, one strategy would be to balance out increased warming from solar contributions by decreasing carbon dioxide output. so, if indeed there's an exogenous source to warming, we still can do something about it in the long run.



Most accomplishments (assuming you consider them such) were millitary/political.

it's not pertinent, but he also "managed" to do very un-ideological things, like his advertised positions during campaigns about letting "market forces" operate with less interference. his administration has been one of the biggest market busters around.
Uh, no, as I recall, Gore said that on TV.

You recall. You didn't link.
oh, i already addressed this matter. sorry for duplication of effort.
The tropical wave in 55W still look impressive tonight
Sorry....post got cut off....you remember something that you've heard a zillion times. There have been multiple debunkings of that lie.

Gore's actual phrasing was "I took the initiative in creating the Internet." Bad grammar, which happens to people on TV with lots as stake. By "in creating" he meant "on the issue of creating". Put it this way, everybody knew what that was supposed to mean but people whose job is to smear Democrats.

FWIW I haven't seen the movie yet, and I would not say I'm in total agreement with Gore on GW. Haven't really heard his argument yet, just snippets of what other people say.

I wouldn't say that he's that partisan, I'd say he's very polarizing. But beside the point, Bush has accomplished very little ideologically. Most accomplishments (assuming you consider them such) were millitary/political.

Why is he polarizing? How is he irresponsible? (And no, I don't consider them such.)

his behavior after the 2000 elections, which was disgraceful. It reflects badly on him as a person - not as a politician - and I refuse to listen to someone with the maturity of a newly-sprouted mushroom.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on that. Gore's not my favorite (I still hold the PMRC thing against him) but people just feel free to make stuff up about the man.
Locally, by the news, the area over Florida was called an upper level disturbance. There seemed to be no real surface lows associated with it. It did get involved in the daily sea breeze convection But I notice also it is continuing to build after leaving the coast. Considering its path I think its worth keeping an eye on. The center will be over open water around midnight.
There's some possibility that Gore is right about something -- even a blind pig finds an acorn occasionally. The trouble with Al (and I admit, to my chagrin that I voted for the rascal in 2000) is that his environmentalism is like his politics in that it's deeply influenced by liberal guilt and hubris.

If we are experiencing global warming, and the scientific jury thereon is still out despite Al's protestations, it wouldn't be of much surprise to me as we're in the tail end of the last glacial period, and it is normal in the geologic sense for it to warm up to the point that glaciers recede in between glacial epochs. It's also normal for climate to fluctuate at the end of a glacial epoch. There are much longer and deeper cycles to climate than are obvious in the shorter term of centuries. Look up Milankovich and see what he has to say, for instance (though mind the math, it's harrowing :>).

The question currently is how much of a factor are human generated greenhouse gases in whatever is going on -- and whether there is anything that can be done about them if they are a significant factor. Al and his ilk make the mistake (via hubris and liberal guilt) of assming that it is only western folks who produce these gases as we are fat, and rich, and you know, evil. Hence Kyoto applied sanctions to us and Europe, but not to China and India, which pollute a great deal and are growing economies with the potential to dwarf the total output of the US. At any rate, my bet is on technology providing a solution - the most obvious one being nuclear power - so a Kyoto-like wrecking of Western economies isn't a productive strategy (as most countries have already realized -- the US Senate rejected Kyoto soundly during the Clinton-Gore administration for that reason -- had nothing to do with W).

As a final footnote, Paul Ehrlich predicted mass ecological catastrophe and shortages by now back in the 70's -- which didn't happen, of course -- and he was a whole lot smarter and better informed than Al. :>
... the scientific jury thereon is still out ...

who the hell are you to make such a claim? where is your evidence? and, as well w...t..h... are you to completely disregard what has been written previously in this thread, namely, my observations that whether the source of warming is anthropogenic or not, the government is criminal in their negligence to prepare the country for the consequences?
from StormJunkie

But that takes away from the world wide political game.

yes, i'm willing to assign politicians and political commentators with the same social stigmas given porn stars and child molesters.

A couple of things are bothering me about the AL/Global Warming issue. Al Gore is not a scientist. He is depending on other peoples words. He chooses which scientist to believe.

As we are coming out of an ice age, warming seems inevitable. If so, wouldn't it be more prudent to prepare for possible changes that may occur.
We may be experiencing global warming. But I seriously doubt humans have had a whole lot of effect of warming the earth. The day the "Inconvient Truth" movie came out, I read a review that showed with proof that the real hot air came from Gore.

What everyone forgets is the earth is a cycle machine. Hurricanes come in cycles. Look at history, there is proof of that. And the track of hurricanes take cycles, a few years ago it was north and North Carolina was hammered, but Florida was untouched. Now, Florida and the gulf is hammered, while hurricanes only indirectly affect the rest of the US.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Track-Maps.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml
Climate goes in cycles. The 1970's were unusually cool. And what about the Mediaevil Warm Period? El Nino/La Nina is a cycle. And there are more cycles.

If the earth is getting warmer, it would get warmer if we never existed. Humans may add a little. And I'm not saying we should pollute. But don't be like Al Gore and proclaim the world is going to end in 10 years when we don't even know what the weather is going to be like 5 days from now.
SaymoBEEL,

He chooses which scientist to believe.

it is global warming sceptics who are shopping around for scientists supporting their viewpoint. the preeminent organization concerned with the science of such matters, the American Geophysical Union, has long held an official position both on it and on human involvement in it.

if someone wishes to dispute that, i suppose they are entitled to that so-called opinion. but someone oughtn't at the same time claim that "the science is still out" or a skeptical viewpoint is in any way a consensus unless they want to assert fraud is acceptable as well.
yes, i'm willing to assign politicians and political commentators with the same social stigmas given porn stars and child molesters.

My goodness, it may be the end of the world, I found something I agree with disneylogic on! :)
If the earth is getting warmer, it would get warmer if we never existed.

it might or not. yet, for those who understand the mathematics of climate systems, this continuing pursuit of a myth of an environmental adolescence by the public of the one country who ought to know better than anyone is both sad and tragic. facts are, we need to be far more careful about what we are doing precisely because we don't understand the details. climate is a tightly coupled, dynamic, and non-linear system. such systems can be full of state-changing surprises.
There is a spin to that wave near 50W The center appears to be SW of the flare up.
Hey what do you guys think about the disturbance moving off sw florida?

I thought it was just a typical afternoon thunderstorm, but a flare up has just occured sw of that blob, and am I possibly seeing some spin?
NoloContendere wrote:

It's also normal for climate to fluctuate at the end of a glacial epoch. There are much longer and deeper cycles to climate than are obvious in the shorter term of centuries. Look up Milankovich and see what he has to say, for instance (though mind the math, it's harrowing :>)

Ah, yes, numerology can get quite challenging. :-)

From what I can see, the efforts to correlate Milankovich's cycles with the paleoclimatological record are, well, strained. Check the Wikipedia article for some examples of the problems involved. Furthermore, it appears that people running the model forward appear to be able to predict either continued global cooling or a continued warm climate.

But you can have an unlimited amount of fun pushing numbers around on your plate... :-)
Ya'll the pressure on the east coast of FL is 1018.8 & ↑. Here's the Melbourne NWS office discussion.
MON-SUN..MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW RIDGE AXIS FROM ATLANTIC
TO NORTHERN FLORIDA PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH DAY TO
DAY NORTH/SOUTH FLUCTUATIONS OF THE RIDGE WILL OCCUR...EASTERLY
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DAILY REINFORCEMENT BY THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. TAIL END OF MID LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE
PENINSULA TUE WHILE SURFACE REFLECTION RIDES OVER THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE WITH LITTLE IMPACT. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS OF COASTAL
SITES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT WINDS REMAINING STRONG ENOUGH
THOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE LATE NIGHT/MORNING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE ITS TRYING TO SETTLE
INTO ITS SUMMER PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS
AND SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS PRODUCING MID/LATE AFTERNOON LIGHTNING
STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. TEMPS AROUND THEIR CLIMO VALUES FOR MID
JUNE WITH DAYTIME UPPER 80S AT THE COAST AND LOWER 90S/INLAND AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

$$

WIMMER

Been so long since we saw a good seabreeze storm, understand not reconizing it.
Funny you should mention that TPAweatherguy yes it is growing in the gulf. It is a something or another that they are calling a disturbance. Checked almost EVERY surface pressure around 3 pm and noticed NOTHING out of the ordinary even a little high for a thunderstorm. I need to check the Buoys tonight. It should be dead and/or dissipating. I figure the real center will move off shore around midnight. But who knows if I got where the center is right or even if it has one. I need to check the radar.
AND its INVISIBLE to radar!!! OK its just a sea breeze storm for now.
thats weird man, heres something else to think about..

I live in Tampa, and I check the accuweather.com 15 day forecast to see what I might expect for upcoming weather. I remember at least a week before Alberto formed, the forecast for June 12th was humid, rain, and T-storms, something you normally see with a tropical storm. So theat same night I checked cities all over the west coast and the forecasts were the same. Now, what I'm getting at is I checked the 15 day tonight, and for June 28th-30th, It shows that same forecast. I checked Bradenton, Orlando, Gainesville, and Pensacola, and it shows that forecast for those cities also. We could possibly be dealing with a storm on the west coast of Fl in that time period. Check out tampas forecast.


http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&traveler=1&zipcode=33606&metric=0
Also, it will be intersting to see how long this convection persists off sw florida. It is also expanding.
but it's just a seabreeze thunderstorm so we should not pay any attention to it at all right?
hi folks, looks like you thrashed through the global warming issue a bit today. The thing off FLA is not a concern for me, but I'm continuing to monitor the wave (now around 55W and 15N) which has been the most impressive feature in sight.

Following is the latest (8 pm Eastern) tropical weather discussion from NHC) on that wave:

A MORE IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN MOVED AHEAD ALONG 54W
SOUTH OF 16N BASED UPON TURNING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
RATHER QUICKLY WESTWARD NEAR 20 KT. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE MAINLY BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 300 NM. A BURST OF
MODERATE CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE AXIS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 54W-56W.
"What everyone forgets is the earth is a cycle machine. Hurricanes come in cycles. Look at history, there is proof of that. And the track of hurricanes take cycles, a few years ago it was north and North Carolina was hammered, but Florida was untouched. Now, Florida and the gulf is hammered, while hurricanes only indirectly affect the rest of the US.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Track-Maps.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml
Climate goes in cycles. The 1970's were unusually cool. And what about the Mediaevil Warm Period? El Nino/La Nina is a cycle. And there are more cycles."

People who say this don't even know a what a cycle is.

A cycle is something that repeats in a consistent way, for consistent reasons.

There is no evidence for a hurricane "cycle". There have been low points, and high points. Each caused for their own sets of reasons. The lows and highs for hurricanes do not follow any consistent time frame, and attempts to assign them for the paucity of hurricane data on record have to arbitrarily ignore data points that demonstrate the lack of a cycle.

The low points of the last "hurricane cycle" correspond so closely to the same factors as the global dimming phenom caused by the ramping of industrialization without particulate control. That is almost certainly what slowed hurricane development, and kept sea surface temperatures lower.

Even things that have happened repeatedly in earths history, like ice ages, are not cycles. each of them had their own timing, and likely each of them had their own distinct causes.

El Nino and La nina are not "cycles". They have specific reasons for occuring without any regard to timing. They are events. It is like saying there is a cycle of traffic accidents at a busy intersection. No. There are repeated, distinct events.

The climate cycle argument is foolishness. Let it go.

It is true there is a real solar cycle, caused by repeatable shifts in the nuclear chemistry of the sun. It has the effect of altering the suns output by less than 1 watt out of 1300 wats recieved at earths average orbit. so less than 0.1%, and so quickly (on a geological time scale) it scarcely matters.

Except, of course, that greenhouse gasses and melting sea ice serve to amplify that effect: extra energy in plus higher retained energy = more energy retained in the atmosphere.

"Al Gore is really boring, but he has the right idea."

I'm sure it is, to the mind of a ten year old. Adults, I'd expect more of. I know its important to appear to jaded to be impressed, but it was a captivating and impressive movie.


The cool thing about the thing off Florida is that while it seems to be out of Phase with everything around it, in its current building cycle -- directly across the gulf there is a storm that is connected to it by a boundary that is in the same state of building.
Mysticdog,

Actually, there are tree-ring samples and sediment samples that shows fluctions of hurricane landfall and intensity in what we would define as 'cycles' that go back thousands of years. Also, our present data suggest high points and low points in the mid-late 1800 and early 1900s when pollution and greenhouse gasses were much lower. Even though the data is not perfect, and it's impossible to think we documented every storm before satellites, it is only logical that we documented more storms in more active seasons and less during inactive seasons.

The fact is we need more research in all areas. We know far too little about how the climate works and how we effect it. We cant start ruling out certain scenarios when we dont even have all the pieces to the puzzle.
To those throwing around the global warming issue:
Yes, the scientific jury is still out on global warming, but the evidence for it is pretty strong. How much, and even if, human activity contributes to the problem is still totally unknown.

An inconvenient truth, to rip off the title of the movie, is that having to switch from fossil fuels in the next decade would cause more human hardship than global warming likely would.
We absolutely do need to switch away from fossil fuels, or at least massively cut their use, but the simple fact is that it can't happen overnight, and it won't.
The blob off Florida faces shear to the north, dry air to the west, and land to the east. Don't expect anything out of it.
In the 15 years off and on I lived here and in Anchorage I watched a glacier leave a lake and recede up a mountain. Back here 700+ year colonies of coral are bleaching out and dying on reefs tens of thousands of years old. To say that just by chance this period of rapid warming is occurring simultaneously to industrialization is utterly ridiculous.

Ten years ago this was debatable -- now its totally absurd.
Dr. Masters, love your daughter, and she is right. Gore is boring but on target as far as global warming goes. Also Gore should be the president because Bush stole the office from both Gore and John Kerry. Just ask the soon to be indicted Ken Blackwell how he stole Ohio for Bush, and ask Katherine Harris how she did the same for Florida. Is this how Republicans win at everything, by cheating??
82. Jet2
Personally I would say the global warming issue at least in the eyes of scientific papers published on the subject are all in agreement, but the discussion is now are we the ones causing the global warming or is it a byproduct of the cyclical nature of the climate system. There was actually a study done a few years back when they took all the research papers written and published in scientific literature and counted zero dissenting opinions that global warming was happening, but in the newspapers there was a 60% dissagrement that global warming is happening. I would love dissenters to the current climate theory come out, but usually they just scream global warming is wrong without any evidence or publishing in a scientific journal. Personally I'm of the belief that Global warming currently is happening but is likely caused by the cylical nature of the climate system more so then the human populace, but I cannot make that my scientific opinion unless I have evidence to back up my claim.
Jflorida

I respectfully disagree that the blob sw of florida is anything. Just convergance as I mentioned earlier with some enhacing triggers like a trough to the east..and low steering winds...creates alot of flare and rain and lightning(lots today) forecasted to persist for a couple of days...welcome rain
I wouldn't be so fast as to discount human activities; I am sure that you have seen graphs like this one before; notice the anomolously large increase in the past 150 years or so and especially in the last couple decades. Also, before the last century, the level of CO2 was similar to that during the last interglacial period around 110,000-120,000 years ago (~275 ppm). This same period has seen similar changes in temperatures - an accelerating rise (especially in the last couple decades) for the last century.
guys you need to sit back take a real deep breath there is nothing going to form in the tropics for the rest of the month of june the shear is just to high and the dust is back again...chill guys go on a 2 week vacation then all hell will break lose....the one and only StormTop I will be back around july 5th....
I'm not sure if I believe you STORMTOP. Look at the wave that may peter out tomorrow. But if it doesn't, we could be looking at the next storm.
Posted By: Mysticdog at 3:00 AM GMT on June 19, 2006.

Climate goes in cycles. The 1970's were unusually cool. And what about the Mediaevil Warm Period? El Nino/La Nina is a cycle. And there are more cycles."

People who say this don't even know a what a cycle is.

A cycle is something that repeats in a consistent way, for consistent reasons.

There is no evidence for a hurricane "cycle". There have been low points, and high points. Each caused for their own sets of reasons. The lows and highs for hurricanes do not follow any consistent time frame, and attempts to assign them for the paucity of hurricane data on record have to arbitrarily ignore data points that demonstrate the lack of a cycle.

I recently found an interesting article saying what the causes of these cycles are.....


Kerry Emanuel sparked a debate among his colleagues last year when he published a paper that linked global warming to the trend of increasingly stronger Atlantic Ocean hurricanes observed in recent decades.

In a study to be published soon, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology climatologist will make another bold claim: The cycling of hurricane activity from high to low, which some scientists have attributed to a natural cycle in global weather patterns, is in fact caused by the rise and fall of pollution released by humans.

Furthermore, Emanuel, along with Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University, contend that the microscopic aerosol particles, which reflect sunlight and cool the atmosphere, have been masking the effect of global warming on Atlantic Ocean hurricanes for several decades. The researchers say that it is only in recent decades, as aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have declined due to clean air standards, that the full impact of greenhouse gas emissions on hurricane strength has been realized.

Meanwhile, other new research by Purdue University scientists supports Emanuels original finding and extends it to the entire globe.

Together, the two new studies suggest that hurricanes, known as cyclones elsewhere, are getting stronger all over the planet and that humans play a role in the change.

Stronger cyclones worldwide

Research done by Matthew Huber and Ryan Sriver at Purdue University in Indiana independently verifies and expands upon Emanuels 2005 study, which showed that hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans had increased in duration and intensity by about 50 percent since the 1970s. Emanuel linked the trend to rising sea surface temperatures, or SSTs, caused in part by global warming.

"We used a different technique and different data than Dr. Emanuel, who looked specifically at the Atlantic and western Pacific oceans, whereas we looked at the entire world," Huber said. "Nevertheless, we got the same results that he did, the same basic trends."

The researchers used surface wind and temperature records from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Reanalysis Project to estimate the total wind output of tropical cyclones worldwide from 1958 to 2001. Called the "globally integrated tropical cyclone power dissipation," this value represents the potential damage that a storm can cause.

The Purdue study marks the first time this value has been calculated on a global scale. It found that tropical cyclone activity has doubled over the past 40 years with only a quarter degree Celsius of tropical ocean warming. This is cause for concern, the researchers say, because scientists expect a two-degree warming over the course of the next century.

"The signal that we looked at is a measure of not only the intensity but also the duration of the storm," Sriver told LiveScience. "What we've seen is an increase in strength and duration but not necessarily in the number of storms."

http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/060531_cyclone_intensity.html
They say that the "AMO cycle" is maybe caused by aerosols in the atmosphere too.
You guys should really read the whole article!
The Gulf thing is nothing probably an area of midlevel tilt thats plowing damp air into a cooler, higher area - but - it is also slow moving persistent weather pattern. I wont worry till something disturbing shows up on the surface.
I wonder if the Cro-Magnon man was so concerned about rising sea levels and melting ice caps at the end of the Ice Age? Frankly, I don't care if global occurring, as it most likely is. I don't even care if humans are causing it, because the fossil record shows that the earth's temperature has fluctuated wildly over its lifetime and in all that time that life has been on this planet it has always found a way to adapt. We will adapt to global warming just as we have adapted to every environmental change we've encountered over the 1 million-or-so year lifespan of our species.
TPAweatherguy wrote:

"I live in Tampa, and I check the accuweather.com 15 day forecast to see what I might expect for upcoming weather. I remember at least a week before Alberto formed, the forecast for June 12th was humid, rain, and T-storms, something you normally see with a tropical storm."

If you live in Tampa, you should already know that humid weather, rain, and thunderstorms happen almost every day during the summer here, even without a tropical system in the area. Forecasting for the Tampa Bay area is easy in the summer...sunny in the morning, thunderstorms in the afternoon...SSDD...
Al Gore also "invented the internet"
Look ST is back, and he says no more storm until July, which he said before Alberto formed and then when he did he had it heading to west Texas. Wind Shear please!
I slightly disagree with Ellie & the good Dr.

IMHO, Al Gore is really boring and borrows the left's ideas.

Also, the movie was more about him than the climate. Almost as if to say: No, Hillary, _I_ am the inconvenient candidate. ;)
moreover, suppose warming were predominantly solar. the effects of warming are just as severe, no matter what it's source. indeed, since anthropogenic sources undoubtedly contribute something to warming, one strategy would be to balance out increased warming from solar contributions by decreasing carbon dioxide output. so, if indeed there's an exogenous source to warming, we still can do something about it in the long run.

Truth is, we can only speculate about these things, because geologically speaking, we're dealing with miniscule quantities of data. People who think they know the political solution to a mystery of nature need to consider that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. I am forever stunned at the certitude with which people speak, regardless of political bent, when proclaiming the fixes for what are perceived to be problems with complex systems. I understand the motive (people want to feel like solutions to the devilish problems that vex them are obvious and the benefits of their solutions are tangible if not immediate)... but the _certitude_ always has me shaking my head.

(I am speaking here apolitically... its true of all political stripes. Why, just lower taxes or raise taxes, and instant prosperity will appear; simply raise the minimum wage or remove it altogether, and everyone's standards of living will rise; merely restrict CO2 ommissions and nature will set itself straight (meanwhile, everyone ride bikes or carpool); why, simply amend the constitution to fobid X, Y and Z undesirable behavior, and magically it will go away...; why, all we need to do is spend more money on A, B or C social program, and all will be well; etc ad nauseum.)
A nice big Wave is headed for the leeward Islands
I wonder if the Cro-Magnon man was so concerned about rising sea levels and melting ice caps at the end of the Ice Age? Frankly, I don't care if global occurring, as it most likely is. I don't even care if humans are causing it, because the fossil record shows that the earth's temperature has fluctuated wildly over its lifetime and in all that time that life has been on this planet it has always found a way to adapt. We will adapt to global warming just as we have adapted to every environmental change we've encountered over the 1 million-or-so year lifespan of our species.

Amen. Our question shouldn't be how to fix it (after all, if it ain't broke don't fix it... warming and cooling is the ecology's way of working). Our question should be what is happening and how (if at all) can we adapt.

When it comes to life on this little blue orb, we should all count our blessings at what is statistically speaking quite an anomoly in the cosmos. Thinking we have very much control over it one way or the other, least of all through political acts of bravery/sepukku (take your pick), is somewhat naive. All we can control is ourselves and all we can influence really are the people around us, and then only sometimes... :)
98. IKE
ST said..."the one and only StormTop I will be back around july 5th...."....


Enjoy your vacation..2 weeks of sanity on here...thank God.


ST said..."guys you need to sit back take a real deep breath there is nothing going to form in the tropics for the rest of the month of june the shear is just to high and the dust is back again"....

I'll draw my own conclusions. Your cred went out the window with the Alberto fiasco. I'm sure SW LA and Texas welcomed the beneficial rains they received off of that storm.
today I saw the Carribbean satellite image and I think that the wave still look impressive but not as yesterday . However I think that right here in Puerto Rico we will have a lot of rainfall.
100. IKE
Morning discussion from San Juan on that wave..."Next tropical wave moving into the Lesser Antilles early this
morning...moving westward at 20 knots...accompanied by a leading
low level trough and wind surge...followed closely by a middle level
trough and much deeper moisture. GFS has been moving this wave west
and underneath an upper high...which if we were in the end of
July or August would be considered a favorable environment for
potential development. However...surface pressure a bit high
across the region at this time. But the wave is responding to warm sst's
across the region and S to SW anticyclonic outflow...with deep
convection having erupted overnight in deeper moisture along and
behind the wave...with more isolated deep convection having just
recently developed within low level trough between 59 and 60w. This
wave will continue to move quickly into the Caribbean today and pass
just S of the local islands tonight and Tuesday. Sufficient
moisture ahead of the wave at our latitude should advect into the
area this afternoon for typical diurnal weather...with increasing
and gusty winds...and squally weather expected to spread from east
to west this evening and tonight into the local marine area. GFS
has had a bias of moving the main wave vortices too far north and northwest
with medium range forecasts of the past few tropical waves...and
may still be doing the same with this wave. If this wave takes a
west-northwest motion after it enters the Caribbean...then deep convective
clusters now occurring at the north end of this wave along 16n could
move into St Croix and S and southeast sections of PR overnight and
Tuesday...which would lead to very heavy rainfall and likely flash
flooding. So despite our overforecast with the past tropical
wave...models are forecasting an unstable middle to upper atmosphere
for this wave as it moves into and through the local area...and
there is the potential for some very heavy rains tonight through
Tuesday night."
101. IKE
8:05 am EDT tropical weather discussion on that wave..."Tropical wave is along 57w/58w S of 17n moving W 10-15 kt.
Well-defined broad multilayered curvature signature is observed
on infrared satellite imagery. Scattered moderate/strong
convection is within 120 nm of line from 10n54w-15n59w.
Scattered thunderstorms are approaching the islands this morning
with heaver rain later in the day."....

102. IKE
Unless my 48 year old eyes are deceiving me...there appears to be a low level circulation with that wave at about 12N, 56W...moving west.
What does anyone think about the low dropping south through SE Texas (it's flooding here this morning) sliding out into the NW gulf and hanging around long enough to start developing tropical characteristics?
TO:TampaWeatherBuff
There indeed may be a fairly large natural component to global warming, just look at the relationship between sunspots and the length of the solar cycle to global temperatures. Having said that, it still does not make sense to continue to add massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. There is little debate that CO2 levels have been rising since the industrial revolution.

With the ever increasing demand for oil, we need a long-term solution that includes alternate energy sources such as nuclear, solar, hydrogen, etc.
105. IKE
The NHC mentioned that SE Texas low this morning in their discussion..." A weak 1014 mb low is inland
over E Texas near 30n95w generating strong thunderstorms inland
and within 90 nm along the coast of W Louisiana and Texas from
92w-96w."

It is worth keeping an eye on. Looks like it's at the tail end of a front.
106. IKE
According to this mornings Houston weather discussion..."The low is expected to eventually shift west of the area with a
gradual decrease in probability of precipitation later this week"
107. WSI
"Also Gore should be the president because Bush stole the office from both Gore and John Kerry."

Surge, comments like this don't belong in this blog. This is a WEATHER blog. How does your statement relate? The answer is, it doesn't. Keep the non-related political comments in your own blog.

"Our question should be what is happening and how (if at all) can we adapt."

Well I would put forth that we don't exactly understand our impact either. Anyone who can say firmly one way or another probably doesn't have a firm grasp of the situation. Obviously we will have to adapt either way though.
well STORMTOP has said nothing is going to form in the tropics for the rest of the month - this is a powerful contrarian indicator!!! l'll keep watching the wave approaching the Antilles, as it has now entered an area of lower shear and higher SSTs than it had experienced previously.
anyone notice that since June 1 2006....the national hurricane center never had more than 2 days in lenght without reporting a disturbance in their tropical weather outlook......
Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 am EDT on June 19, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
A tropical wave E of the Lesser Antilles this morning is moving W at
20 miles per hour. The wave will spread showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds and brief heavy rain across the windward and
southern Leeward Islands today through Tue..otherwise tropical
storm formation is not expected through Tuesday.
$$

I for one will sign a pledge to never talk about global warming AGAIN in this blog, unless of course, in this case, where Dr. Masters chooses to address this topic. I look forward to hearing Dr. Masters comments on the movie, although to be honest, I could Never sit through an Al Gore movie! LOL

As for the wave approaching the lesser antilles, I have concern that this could approach the Carolina coast 5-7 days if the CMC Model is to be believed...... and at this point in the season, the CMC has done a pretty good job.....

And if I were in Puerto Rico, I may get ready for some SERIOUS rain!
we're now seeing some good convection right around the center of the wave..
thelmores.. I think you are right. The cmc does show a weak storm moving into the carolina coast. doubt it will, but it's omething to watch.
also the dry air that was in front of the wave yesterday is fast-disappearing..
Anybody know anything about the position of the Berbuda High at this time? Ihad read that as of 5/31 it was well to the north and east of the Florida Peninsula and should maintain its position there causing more of a northerly turn of potential hurricanes from Africa (unlike 2004-05)
eto-check out "atlantic pressure/windfield analysis" on the WU main tropical page. Right now it shows the main center of the bermuda high well east of bermuda, with a secondary center right over bermuda.

Link
right now that wave near the antilles is just that...a wave. no signs of organization or development for now, though there are squalls associated with it.
TORRENTIAL RAIN IN HOUSTON THIS MORNING..... SOME PLACES GOT 6 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 1.5HRS!

any chance of this "BLOB" entering the gulf??
hey rwdobson it is indeed "just a wave" but it is currently the only show in town in terms of having any prospect of development..
I think the BLOB in Texas actually came from a combo of the "old Alberto low" that was ejected [when the "new low" moved NE into the convection]and the low that came up from the Bay of Campeche. Though a bit elongated, seems to be some surface spin and if you look at the WV, it is certainly pulling in tropical moisture. I need to check the buoys for the readings, but I would imagine the readings to be what might be expected for a TD, though..I would NOT expect the NHC to name this.
TORRENTIAL RAIN IN HOUSTON THIS MORNING..... SOME PLACES GOT 6 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 1.5HRS!

any chance of this "BLOB" entering the gulf??

It's being caused by an upper low regressing to the southwest, so... no.

See the forecast discussion.

What you will see is this upper low spinning the same amounts of moisture up into the Texas coast for the next 2-3 days, which is impressive in itself.
The cmc is not showing a weak storm hitting the Carolinas. Check out the 850vort (showing spin in the mid to lower atmosphere~ scroll right click FWD). It's been forecasting for a small storm to develop off the Bahamas, drift NNW & disapating far from the Carolinas. Followed by a 2nd smaller wave doing the same. Yesterday's 12Z run had the 2nd wave, the stronger of the two. With the forecast of 2 little storms so close together & lack of consistancy, don't get too excited. The gfs shows some showers develop there & push them toward FL. Nogaps follows this forecast a little more agressively as in more rain for FL:) Quickscat is showing some heavy rain contaminated flags (the black ones), just east of the Bahamas, with a few beginning to deveate from the general flow direction.
125. PBG00
Hi All,

The news stations here (east coast s Fla) Heve the "wave" bringin us rain later in the week
well its been a long morning here in "H" town... with a huge section of the city getting 10+ inches in a 2hr time span on top of 2 days of steady soaking..

needless to say.. travel is next to impossible this AM.. with almost all of our feeder roads completely submerged.

that little "L" is definately the little "L" that could.. if this city gets another feeder band like the on that came through here in the wee hours of the morning things are going to go from bad to much worse very quickly..
Yeah, the line from Houston Hobby is pretty interesting.

Houston Hobby Airport - precipitation totals
00:53 - 06:53 CDT: 7.41 in
06:53 - 09:53 CDT: 1.38 in

This starts to rival Tropical Storm Allison in terms of intensity, but not in terms of length of time.
Skyepony, I'm glad you mentioned the Bahamas. I think the models are hinting at possible development there. On this loop you can see all three of the areas we are discussing. In the Bahamas thunderstorms have been going off for a while now, and the shear is lower there then it is in the Caribbean. If the models are showing something, even if it is a batch of showers, I say keep an eye on it.

Also the NHC forecasts a trough to form in the Bahamas, and by 72 hours that trough is a tropical wave. Interesting. By the way I think that eastern Caribbean wave is looking nasty. If the shear wasn't there, this would be on its way to developing.
umm sorry Gulf your WRONG... all of this rain is definately being caused by a upper level low.. the swril is very evident on the WV loop..
If this is from an upper level low (and I'm not saying its not) then it is a very tightly wound upper level low. Perhaps it is working its way to the surface?
one day -- LOL the convection is evident.. the L is sitting just to the north and east of houston...
OneDay that blob over Texas is supposed to be a weak 1014mb low. The question is will it move over water. The GFS takes it SW into Mexico and doesn't take it over water.
never said anything about tropical... and no its tropical rain at all.. but is defiantely being caused by an upper level LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
agreed gulf storm.. light to no wind at all... and no your right its not tropical... but in this case didnt need to be 10+ inches in 2 hours in 10+ inches in two hours tropical or not
Not a lot of wind but lots of rain.. Houstonian aren't you nw of Houston? Looks like you may get your fair amount of rain later.
What does everyone think about the cut-off upper low in the Bahamas? The latest 12z GFS has the next trough missing it, and then develops a strong 850 vort max and moves it NW and then SW across Florida. This is the GFS remember. If it's showing something, we should watch it. Also wind shear is supposed to stay farely light in that area for the next week.
yes i am NW of the city(downtown)... i refuse to live inside the loop for many reasons but one for now is .. id be doing the backstroke in my living room
no scotsman lol not at all.. lived here long enough to definately know the difference... been through my fair share of tropical moisture and this definately does not foot the bill
142. PBG00
Levi..I'm In S Fla..At this point it is just supposed to be a wave enhancing our chance of rain later this week
Did anyone read the NWS forecast discussion?

I would define my terms as follows:

Tropical - originating from the tropical latitudes.

Tropical storm - closed warm-core surface low pressure system with winds above 40 mph or so.

Upper level low - closed low pressure system in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.

This is a tropical upper level low, conveniently located so as to pull lots of moisture in from the tropics. Nothing to see here except lots of rain. :-)

This post may not be 100% correct, but I think it's correct enough.
PBG00 I hope you get some rain. It's "supposed to be just a wave", but the fact that it is a wave at all is important to consider. I don't know what time of year waves start forming that far north, but this seems a bit early.
True thats why i like living in Katy no flooding.. and far enough away from the ocean.
146. RL3AO
I haven't read the blog much in the past week, so sorry if this has been brought up. But does anyone think Alberto will be brought up to hurricane strength post-season?
147. PBG00
oops..my post vanished..anyway whose to say whats normal anymore.This is our rainy season..a wave is worth watching but nothing to get excited about yet.
Here is a radar loop from the tower in Nassau, Bahamas. The images are at sporadic times though, anywhere from 30 minutes to 3 hours. I didn't know the Bahamas had a radar site though. Pretty cool.
RL3AO I don't think Alberto will be upgraded post-season. For one thing the pressure never got low enough into hurricane range, and recon didn't find anything above 74-knot flight-level winds, so I don't think they will upgrade it.
Houstonian...

Kinda saw it coming this morning...I work at nights down at the Texas Medical Center and was watching the radar all night long...was on the phone with a co-worker for about 2 hours early this morning who lives on the southeast side...I told her that her area would have major issues this morning...indeed her area has major issues right now...the good news is many people received some much needed rain this morning...the bad news is it was in too short amount of time...
The remains of the thing over Florida along with some other stuff is hanging out in the center Gulf. The low over Texas is getting uncomfortably close, and as was pointed out, the stuff over the Bahamas is headed in.
i wish that ULL had drifted north and given some rain to KC...seems like it is cutoff and just meandering about.
ya randy .. i refused to get out in that crap this AM (giant parking lot called I-45) so here i sit ...
The ridge over Florida seems to be drifting a little north. Are they sure bout the low over Texas heading into Mexico??
JF the lil "L" is movong s/sw at about 2 mph...lol its not going anywhere fast
PBG,

I live in PBG too. That's all we used to get prior to 04. We got waves in June and July (mostly late June early July). Now I pray for a season like this....

Regarding the Bermuda-Azores High. The normal location of this high in June is to the west or southwest of the Azores.


June Bermida-Azores High



159. IKE
The good DR. has a new blog on Al Gore and his..yawn-yawn....movie.