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A quiet 2009 for natural disasters

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:35 PM GMT on January 04, 2010

It was a relatively quiet year globally for natural disasters in 2009. According to Munich Re insurance company, the death toll from 2009 natural disasters was approximately 10,000, well below the average 75,000 deaths per year seen over the decade of the 2000s. Damage from 2009 natural disasters was about $50 billion, compared to the decadal average of $115 billion, and far below the $200 billion in destruction wrought by 2008's natural disasters. The most costly disaster of 2009 was Winter Storm Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, causing $5.1 billion in damage. The deadliest weather-related disaster was Category 2 Typhoon Ketsana, which killed 694 people in the Philippines and Southeast Asia. Category 2 Typhoon Morakot was a close second, with 614 fatalities, primarily in Taiwan. The deadliest natural disaster overall was the magnitude 7.6 earthquake that shook the Indonesian island of Sumatra on 30 September, killing nearly 1,200 people.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in a still frame from a dramatic YouTube video captured by medical students at the East Ramon Magsaysay Memorial Medical Center.

I'll be back Tuesday with my selection for the top global weather event of 2009: the Horn of Africa drought.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting PcolaDan:


Is that the clouds that scooted over us and are still here? Not helping keep temps up though.

I suppose. No other moisture source upwind...
PBIA temp is 45...Gonna be a chilly one tomorrow morning!
Flying over the Coastal GOM on the way to Cancun :)

Quoting zoomiami:
Does anybody know when they are going to fix the comments so I can figure out which way is up?
it is fixed got to click newest first at the top of comments page
Quoting zoomiami:
Does anybody know when they are going to fix the comments so I can figure out which way is up?


Been working for me couple days now.
Street clouds forming just offshore N GOM

Thanks -- it is working.

Helps if you aren't trying to refresh a page from two days ago.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
908 PM EST MON JAN 4 2010


...COLD WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE WORKING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THIS AREA
. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD ALSO START TO WORK INTO THE NORTHERN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CLOUDS WILL
HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING FAST OVER THE CWA...BUT
WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH OVERNIGHT...THE TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL ABOUT 1 DEGREE PER HOUR OVERNIGHT.
CURRENTLY THE
TEMPS ARE RUNNING IN THE 40S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS TO THE 50S
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD FALL
DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA WITH MID 30S
TO LOWER 40S OVER REST OF THE CWA. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FREEZE WARNING FOR HENDRY...GLADES...AND INLAND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES TONIGHT.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR
METRO AND COASTAL BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES TONIGHT.

THE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...OFFSHORE GULF WATERS...AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS SHOULD INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER BISCAYNE BAY AND NEAR-
SHORE GULF WATERS. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM WATERS TONIGHT...AND UP TO 6 FEET IN TH OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR ALL OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR BISCAYNE BAY AND THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS OF THE
GULF WHICH WILL BE IN A SCEC.

Quoting zoomiami:
Thanks -- it is working.

Helps if you aren't trying to refresh a page from two days ago.


We understand, the weather has that effect on some people.

What is "CWA"?
Quoting KrazyJorge0424:
What is "CWA"?


County Warning Area
Quoting KrazyJorge0424:
What is "CWA"?


covered watch area maybe? or cwazy wabbit alert

edit: my guesses were wrong, first one close though
County Warning Area I think. Just the area they issue forecasts for.
Quoting Patrap:
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Go to the NOAA Homepage
NWS Homepage
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

3 products issued by NWS for: New Orleans LA
Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
633 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

...WINTRY MIX FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK IS ON THE WAY...

.THE FIRST IN A WAVE OF ARCTIC AIRMASSES IS ALREADY MOVING IN
TONIGHT BUT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE A GULF LOW
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A MUCH STRONGER
ARCTIC AIRMASS QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE GULF COAST STATES THERE IS THE RISK OF
RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO SLEET AND SNOW EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. ADDITIONALLY...VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-050845-
/O.NEW.KLIX.WW.Y.0001.100107T0000Z-100110T1600Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MONTPELIER...
HAMMOND...PONCHATOULA...BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...
MANDEVILLE...COVINGTON...LACOMBE...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PIERRE PART...
LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...
RESERVE...THIBODAUX...RACELAND...LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...
METAIRIE...KENNER...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...
VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...DULAC...MONTEGUT...
GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...PORT SULPHUR...EMPIRE...
YSCLOSKEY...CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...LIBERTY...
CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...
WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...PASCAGOULA...
OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
633 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM
CST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AN EXPECTED WINTER MIX AND EXTREMELY COLD
TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...A SURFACE LOW
WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THIS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLOWLY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA.
INITIALLY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING...A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND THEN
SNOW THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ALONG
WITH THE FELICIANAS AND POINT COUPEE PARISH. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX
OF RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT A LIGHT DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

ALL OF THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING
AND THEN THE GREATER ISSUE ARRIVES...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH NEAR -40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR OF CANADA. WITH
A NICE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS THE
UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE AIRMASS WILL NOT MODERATE
CONSIDERABLY. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BRING VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THAT COULD BE COMPARABLE TO THE ARCTIC
OUTBREAK OF EARLY FEBRUARY 1996...BUT NOT AS LOW AS THOSE
EXPERIENCED DURING THE 1985 AND 1989 ARCTIC OUTBREAKS. MULTIPLE
NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THAT ARE GENERALLY
NORTH OF THE 10/12 CORRIDOR. ACROSS THE SOUTHSHORE...LOWS COULD
DROP TO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR MULTIPLE NIGHTS. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM 13 NEAR MCCOMB TO 23 AT GALLIANO. EVEN THOUGH IT
IS NOT FORECAST RIGHT NOW...THIS AIRMASS DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO CAUSE LOWS THAT COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MAYBE INTO THE
TEENS AROUND THE NEW ORLEANS METRO.

THESE TEMPERATURES COULD BECOME LIFE THREATENING AND AT THE VERY
LEAST HAZARDOUS TO PROPERTY. RESIDENTS SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS
FOR EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES NOW.

TO PREVENT FREEZING AND POSSIBLE BURSTING OF OUTDOOR PIPES...
PIPES SHOULD BE WRAPPED...DRAINED...OR ALLOWED TO DRIP SLOWLY.
THOSE THAT HAVE IN-GROUND SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD DRAIN THEIR
SYSTEMS...OR COVER ANY ABOVE-GROUND PIPES TO PROTECT THEM FROM
FREEZING.

PETS ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE EXTREME COLD. KEEP PETS INDOORS AS
MUCH AS POSSIBLE. IF THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE...MAKE SURE OUTDOOR
PETS HAVE WARM DRY SHELTER...AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FOOD AND
FRESH UNFROZEN WATER.

BE PARTICULARLY CAREFUL WITH PORTABLE HEATERS...THERE IS A DANGER
OF FIRE OR POISONOUS FUMES. MAKE FREQUENT CHECKS ON THE ELDERLY.
MAKE SURE THEIR FURNACES ARE WORKING AND HEATING THE HOUSE
PROPERLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.



Wow, last week it was winter in the northern
hemisphere, now we have frozen fruit in FLA.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100104/ap_on_re_as/as_asia_storms

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20100103/NEWS/1030352/-1/SiteMap/Feeling-cold?-We-re-at-30 -below-normal

http://www.theage.com.au/world/siberian-winds-usher-in-record-lows-in-beijing-20100103-lna6.html

Yeah, AGW is rearing it's ugly head.
Quoting Patrap:


A Really Rare Map


Snow in the Bayou, Round III
517. jipmg
I think it might snow in tampa

There is moisture developing *clouds* in the gulf and moving straight for tampa were its 30.
Quoting Bordonaro:


County Warning Area

That is correct. You win the weather-weenie medal of odd-ball acronyms.
519. jipmg
What the heck is going on?

this is MIAMI WEATHER?

http://static.cbslocal.com/station/wfor/files/weather/WEB_fcst_extended.jpg

Is this right? its going to be even colder next weekend/ early next week? Potentially highs only into the LOW 50S? o-O-O-
Whats a County?

LOL
Quoting Patrap:
Whats a County?

LOL

LOL!

And anything one reads in a NWS statement should be defined in the glossary here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/glossary/

Sadly, no, county isn't there. They apparently expects us to know a couple of things.

And CWA is: "The group of counties for which a National Weather Service Forecast Office is responsible for issuing warnings."
Quoting atmoaggie:

That is correct. You win the weather-weenie medal of odd-ball acronyms.


I actually double-checked the glossary :0)!

Gotta love this weather atmoaggie. It'll be cold and snowy this week, in 10 days, it'll be in the mid 70's! Modiki El Nino.
25 F not too far off here...

Why dem Folks down in ol Bernard Parish are under one of dem Winter Weather Visories..

Best bring in dat potted lemon Tree an run a xtension cord out to Dat Dog'd House and put in a 100 Watt Bulb Honey..
Patrap :0), county=parish. Oh, your gonna love your snow, take pics, I believe DFW, TX will miss out on the snow this round, maybe?
I suppose AGW is true.

Winter Could Be Worst in 25 Years for USA...
CHILL MAP...
3 Deaths Due To Cold in Memphis...
PAPER: GAS SUPPLIES RUNNING OUT IN UK...
Vermont sets 'all-time record for one snowstorm'...
Iowa temps 'a solid 30 degrees below normal'...
Seoul buried in heaviest snowfall in 70 years...
Historic ice build-up shuts down NJ nuclear power plant...
Beijing -- coldest in 40 years...
Miami shivers from coldest weather in decade...
Quoting jipmg:
What the heck is going on?

this is MIAMI WEATHER?

http://static.cbslocal.com/station/wfor/files/weather/WEB_fcst_extended.jpg

Is this right? its going to be even colder next weekend/ early next week? Potentially highs only into the LOW 50S? o-O-O-


YES, this is correct :o)

Dec 11 2008

Quoting mrnicktou:
I suppose AGW is true.

Winter Could Be Worst in 25 Years for USA...
CHILL MAP...
3 Deaths Due To Cold in Memphis...
PAPER: GAS SUPPLIES RUNNING OUT IN UK...
Vermont sets 'all-time record for one snowstorm'...
Iowa temps 'a solid 30 degrees below normal'...
Seoul buried in heaviest snowfall in 70 years...
Historic ice build-up shuts down NJ nuclear power plant...
Beijing -- coldest in 40 years...
Miami shivers from coldest weather in decade...


Remember, while the Continental US, South Korea and the UK are experiencing temps 10 below normal, the Arctic region is experiencing temperatures 10F ABOVE normal. Global Warming is not uniform, the atmosphere is like a fluid, it is on the move. Portions warm, portions cool, unfortunately, the climate is warming!
Why are infants and older people most at risk for cold-related illness?

Infants lose body heat more easily than adults; additionally, infants can't make enough body heat by shivering. Infants less than one year old should never sleep in a cold room. Provide warm clothing and a blanket for infants and try to maintain a warm indoor temperature. If the temperature cannot be maintained, make temporary arrangements to stay elsewhere. In an emergency, you can keep an infant warm using your own body heat. If you must sleep, take precautions to prevent rolling on the baby. Pillows and other soft bedding can also present a risk of smothering; remove them from the area near the baby.
Older adults often make less body heat because of a slower metabolism and less physical activity. If you are more than 65 years of age, check the temperature in your home often during severely cold weather. Also, check on elderly friends and neighbors frequently to ensure that their homes are adequately heated.

What is hypothermia?

When exposed to cold temperatures, your body begins to lose heat faster than it can be produced. The result is hypothermia, or abnormally low body temperature. Body temperature that is too low affects the brain, making the victim unable to think clearly or move well. This makes hypothermia particularly dangerous because a person may not know it is happening and won't be able to do anything about it.
Hypothermia occurs most commonly at very cold environmental temperatures, but can occur even at cool temperatures (above 40°F) if a person becomes chilled from rain, sweat, or submersion in cold water.
What should I do if I see someone with warning signs of hypothermia or frostbite?

If you notice signs of hypothermia, take the person's temperature. If it is below 95°, the situation is an emergency—get medical attention immediately. If you detect symptoms of frostbite, seek medical care.




2009 was our second warmest year ever

* By Julian Drape
* From: No Source
* January 05, 2010 12:24PM



Sun

Australia recorded its second hottest year ever, new figures have shown. Source: Reuters

* 2009 Australia's second warmest ever
* Temperatures up .9C
* Figures prove Abbott wrong - Garrett

LAST year was Australia's second warmest on record and closed out the warmest decade on file, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

The latest temperature data "is consistent with global warming", the bureau states in its 2009 annual climate statement released today.

Federal Environment Minister Peter Garrett has jumped on the figures, saying they prove the Opposition's claim that the world had stopped warming is "a false and misleading climate change clanger".

The bureau's statement reveals the country's annual mean temperature in 2009 was 0.9 degrees celsius above the 1961-90 average, "making it the second warmest since high-quality records began in 1910".

Australia overall, NSW, Victoria and South Australia all recorded their warmest July to December periods on record in 2009.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
Related Coverage

* Fires: Homes no longer under threat

* Hot year 'climate change proof' Perth Now, 1 hour ago
* Why we've never been hotter Adelaide Now, 3 days ago
* Warming world warning Adelaide Now, 9 Dec 2009
* The year our sweat broke Herald Sun, 9 Dec 2009
* Hottest six months on record Perth Now, 9 Dec 2009

End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

A summer heatwave saw Melbourne set a new maximum temperature record of 46.6 degrees. Victoria set a new state record of 48.8 degrees at Hopetoun, while Tasmania also set a new mark - 42.2 degrees at Scamander.

An unusual winter heatwave resulted in Australia's warmest August on record.
Quoting Patrap:
Dec 11 2008



Nice pic!
Home Heating Safety: Preventing Fire and Carbon Monoxide Poisoning
Take precautions to prevent carbon monoxide and house fires when heating your home this winter. Carbon monoxide is an odorless, colorless, tasteless and highly poisonous gas that interferes with the delivery of oxygen in the blood to the rest of the body. It is produced by the incomplete burning of fuels including coal, wood, charcoal, natural gas, gasoline, diesel, kerosene and heating oil.
Preventing Fires

If you plan to use a wood stove, fireplace or space heater, be extremely careful. Follow the manufacturer's instructions and remember these safety tips:

•Store a multipurpose, dry chemical fire extinguisher near the area to be heated.
•Do not burn paper in a fireplace.
•Ensure adequate ventilation by opening an interior door or slightly opening a window if you must use a kerosene heater.
•Use only the type of fuel your heater is designed to use—don't substitute.
•If your heater has a damaged electrical cord or produces sparks, don't use it.
•Use fireplaces, wood stoves, and other combustion heaters only if they are properly vented to the outside and do not leak flue gas into the indoor air space. Make sure chimneys and flues are cleaned periodically.
•Do not place a space heater near things that may catch on fire, such as drapes, furniture, or bedding.
536. beell
May be worth watching this shortwave just coming onshore over southern CA. Supposed to deamplify by the time it makes the GOM. But it does look a little better than modeled right now. If it held together and swung over the northern GOM in a couple days it would at least add some lift, moisture, and some spin to the surface low.

Photobucket

Link
Some google images do that when quoted
An unusual winter heatwave resulted in Australia's warmest August on record.



Huh? You mean summer...
Quoting beell:
May be worth watching this shortwave just coming onshore over southern CA.Supposed to dampen out by the time it makes the GOM. But it does look a little better than modeled right now. If it held together and swung over the northern GOM in a couple days it would at least add some lift, moisture, and some spin to the surface low.

Photobucket

Link


Noticed this! yess definately some moisture with a low possible on saturday
KOG, great job on the safety tips for cold weather. People need to prepare and NOT underestimate this Arctic Incursion.

Areas that normally experience cool/mild winters need to prepare for at leat 72 hrs of temps at least 20 to 30F BELOW NORMAL.
It was a Low almost Identical in 89 and a Rockies Artic Plunge that did the Big Freeze in 89,Dec 23-26
Quoting Bordonaro:


YES, this is correct :o)


Now that is what the temps will be where Channel 4 is located which is in the far western burbs of s Broward / N Dade. The temps should be a little warmer in both Miami & Ft Lauderdale since they are closer to the coast (about 5 degrees or so) but still very cold for S Fla.
Re: 536

Thanx for pointing that out! Interesting!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
An unusual winter heatwave resulted in Australia's warmest August on record.



Huh? You mean summer...


No he means winter..they are opposite to us
Quoting Bordonaro:


Remember, while the Continental US, South Korea and the UK are experiencing temps 10 below normal, the Arctic region is experiencing temperatures 10F ABOVE normal. Global Warming is not uniform, the atmosphere is like a fluid, it is on the move. Portions warm, portions cool, unfortunately, the climate is warming!


Does anybody believe that the Earth goes through cycles and we have periods of warmth and periods of coolness? I mean most places are expierencing extreme cold and the north pole which does not have a landmass under it is warming up. Its really just about money and its really unbelievable!
If you've seen Al Gore's movie watch the Great Global Warming Swindle and see both sides of the story. Global warmning is just about money and making a world wide government its pretty easy to tell that thats what its about.
Don't get me wrong its a great idea to save the planet but its about money, power and control and global warming isn't true sorry
536 Beell..That lil' short wave was sneaky. Probably broke off the trough off the E PAC, now it's going to try to sneak into the GOM, north of the SW Sub Tropical Jet, at the same time the short wave trough sails down in the NW flow on Wed/Thurs. I smell SNOW for the Gulf Coast on Thurs/Friday.
Quoting Orcasystems:


No he means winter..they are opposite to us



Rgr that. Losing my mind here.
Oh lord please no GW discussions....
Quoting mrnicktou:
Don't get me wrong its a great idea to save the planet but its about money, power and control and global warming isn't true sorry


How many posts does it take you to say it's about money?
Quoting Bordonaro:
536 Beell..That lil' short wave was sneaky. Probably broke off the trough off the E PAC, now it's going to try to sneak into the GOM, north of the SW Sub Tropical Jet, at the same time the short wave trough sails down in the NW flow on Wed/Thurs. I smell SNOW for the Gulf Coast on Thurs/Friday.


Happy Dance :)
The solution to polution is dilution.....






I read that somewhere once.
Quoting PcolaDan:


How many posts does it take you to say it's about money?


I'm guessing you either don't believe me and am trying to get me all angry or do because if you believe me you don't want to start getting all bothered by this cause its not true. I can go all night either on this site or others that its just about money.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Happy Dance :)


Quoting Orcasystems:


Happy Dance :)


Wow you know its cold when theirs a chance of forecasted snow for FLORIDA ( very northern florida near the panhandle, for example niceville, pensacola) on thursday, ...ouch
Im gonna Play Hockey on Magazine Street..

Right near Henry's Bar,er..in case I got to er,relieve myself..
Quoting mrnicktou:


I'm guessing you either don't believe me and am trying to get me all angry or do because if you believe me you don't want to start getting all bothered by this cause its not true. I can go all night either on this site or others that its just about money.


Practising for Cancun

Ummm El pofto el gondo
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Wow you know its cold when theirs a chance of forecasted snow for FLORIDA ( very northern florida near the panhandle, for example niceville, pensacola) on thursday, ...ouch


and houston might get a chance of snow too on thursday i hope we can get some!
Quoting mrnicktou:


I'm guessing you either don't believe me and am trying to get me all angry or do because if you believe me you don't want to start getting all bothered by this cause its not true. I can go all night either on this site or others that its just about money.


None of the above. But you made your point the first time, and repeating it is not going to get those who disagree you to change their minds.
Remember the orginal battle grounds for the AGW debate was that the science is settled and that there is no doubt that it is man-made. Gore himself postulated that anybody that didn't believe in it was of the same ilk as people who thought the moon landings were faked. I would argue the science isn't settled. Episodes like the current cold spell don't prove it isn't happening but it sure ought to help make the point that it isn't the slam-dunk that Gore would like us to believe.
565. beell
Quoting weatherman874:


Noticed this! yess definately some moisture with a low possible on saturday


Quoting Bordonaro:
536 Beell..That lil' short wave was sneaky. Probably broke off the trough off the E PAC, now it's going to try to sneak into the GOM, north of the SW Sub Tropical Jet, at the same time the short wave trough sails down in the NW flow on Wed/Thurs. I smell SNOW for the Gulf Coast on Thurs/Friday.


We'll see, I guess. It will be moving into a strong confluent flow as the southern stream and the northwest flow come together over the Gulf. So it may very well flatten out before it gets here. Both the NAM and the GFS show it well on the 0hr/analysis-but both lose it. And the NW flow is of a dry and subsident nature.

But it is a healthy looking little bugger!
This is a good article in The New Yorker about steps China has taken to become the lead manufacturer of turbine energy technology.

Link
567. jipmg
There is moisture appearing on radar west of tampa..
Quoting Orcasystems:


Happy Dance :)
how about a HAPPY TAP DANCE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how about a HAPPY TAP DANCE


As long as it snows in Florida.... I don't care if its the flamingo done on high wire wearing a kilt and bagpipes... its the thought that counts :)
And here's a sad tale about the destruction of a penguin colony due to loss of habitat.

Link

I get the hard copy magazine delivered. If you want to read whole articles on-line, then you will probably just have to provide your e-mail address.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
Oh lord please no GW discussions....

It has always has been the true believers that spout this bogus science the most, the natural
cycles will rule the day, nuff said.
572. jipmg
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

definatelly see flurries for tampa tonight..
I'm off my AGW soap-box. Limit myself to one post.
TAMPA Discussion as of 10pm

THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE GULF.
CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW...SO JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING AT ALL. CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES OVER THE
GULF WATERS HAVE RISEN 2 OR 3 DEGREES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND ARE IN THE LOWER 50S. EVEN TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT THE
COAST ARE 50 DEGREES AT CLEARWATER BEACH...48 AT PORT RICHEY...
AND EVEN 45 DEGREES AT CEDAR KEY. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NATURE COAST AND BEFORE
DAWN FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA.
What On Earth
Richard Alley on Earth's Biggest Climate Control Knob


Posted on Dec 28, 2009 11:19:29 PM | NASA's Earth Science News Team | 1 Comments


Click here for a multimedia presentation of Richard Alley's AGU talk. (Credit: AGU)


Scientists aren't known for being the savviest of public speakers, but Penn State's Richard Alley is that rare researcher who knows how to give a talk. Alley -- who's willing to sing, dance, and gesticulate vigorously to get a point across -- gave a lecture about carbon dioxide to an overflow crowd of scientists at the American Geophysical Union meeting this year that's well worth watching.

Blogger and University of Toronto computer scientist Steve Easterbrook has an excellent blow-by-blow of the talk, but the heart of it came down to this point, which Alley made on his last slide:

An increasing body of science indicates that CO2 has been the most important controller of Earth's climate.

If you want the details, (and the details are a pleasure to sit through in this case because of Alley's gregarious speaking style) AGU has posted video and slides of the full talk. Still want to know more about carbon dioxide? NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) released new details about the distribution of carbon dioxide in the troposphere, the region of Earth's atmosphere that is located between 5 to 12 kilometers, or 3 to 7 miles, above Earth's surface. (JPL also released a ten question quiz about the gas that you can access here).

Meanwhile, Alley participated in a NASA science update back in 2005 that explored the nature of sea level rise, a topic that NASA researchers continue to investigate and that you can explore interactively using our Sea Level Viewer.

--Adam Voiland, NASA's Earth Science News Team


576. jipmg
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
TAMPA Discussion as of 10pm

HERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE GULF.
CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW...SO JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES IF ANYTHING AT ALL. CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES OVER THE
GULF WATERS HAVE RISEN 2 OR 3 DEGREES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND ARE IN THE LOWER 50S. EVEN TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT THE
COAST ARE 50 DEGREES AT CLEARWATER BEACH...48 AT PORT RICHEY...
AND EVEN 45 DEGREES AT CEDAR KEY. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE NATURE COAST AND BEFORE
DAWN FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA.


Tampa is in the mid- upper 30s though.. so if that moisture gets to tampa, they could see some wet snow flakes
Quoting jipmg:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

definatelly see flurries for tampa tonight..


You're going to wait up all night for this, aren't you. LOL j/k

Winter haze piles up against the Himalayas above the Indo-Gangetic Plain. (Credit: Earth Observatory)


What On Earth
Smelling the Air in Kanpur

Posted on Dec 20, 2009 09:04:04 PM | NASA's Earth Science News Team |



When the plane was about 30 minutes from touchdown, we could start to smell the air,said David Giles. It was shocking.

Giles -- a young scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center -- was en route to Kanpur, a large Indian industrial city on the banks of the Ganges river. Dust and soot tend to hover over the region, which is sandwiched between the sharp edge of the Tibetan Plateau to the north and the highlands of the Deccan Plateau to the south.

Theres so much soot in the air that satellites can routinely see a cloud of haze blanketing the region.

The bowl-like Indo-Gangetic Plain is second only to some parts of China for having the heaviest load of air pollution in the world. In the spring, when dust blows in from the deserts to the West, aerosols from factories, buses and trucks, and fires are especially heavy. So much so, in fact, that NASA researchers suggested recently that dust and soot may be driving the retreat of Himalayan glaciers by altering the monsoon.

Giles was in Kanpur to man one of NASA's AERONET stations in the region as part of the ongoing TIGERZ campaign. He spent 17 days in Kanpur hauling the instrument around and getting harassed by local police officers, the occasional herd of roaming sheep and dust storms. In between all that, he spent the bulk of his time collecting measurements to determine whether dust and soot can glom onto one another to create new types of hybrid aerosols.

They do, he found, a seemingly mundane point but one that's of considerable interest to the scientists trying to sort out how these two types of aerosols affect the climate. He presented his results in detail this week to colleagues at the American Geophysical Union fall meeting in San Francisco.

I nabbed him after his talk in the afternoon, to have a beer and talk through his travels. I asked him what was the most memorable part of the trip to India. Well, it was unbelievably hot, he said with a laugh. Temperatures routinely hit 105 degrees."

And how was the air? You'd get used to it after a while,said Giles, but, at first, in the taxi, we were holding our sleeves over our mouths just to avoid breathing the stuff.

*************************************************************************************************** ***

Amazing stuff,eh..reading and all.


579. jipmg
Quoting PcolaDan:


You're going to wait up all night for this, aren't you. LOL j/k


nope, I don't live in Tampa, but its interesting =D
580. unf97
565. Beell

Very astute observations regarding the shortwave moving onshore the SO CAL coast.

We will see how the models handle that piece of energy. If that shortwave doesn't flatten out in time over the next 48 hours, then the system foreact to develop in the Western GOM will have the needed trigger to generate into a rather decent system.

Watch the models closely the next 36-48 bours.

Current temp now down to 29.4 degrees.



Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
419 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-051145-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
419 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

...CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR MID TO LATE WEEK SNOWS...AND
BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE SNOW...

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS SUGGEST MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
MIGHT OCCUR...WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 OR 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. IF THIS FORECAST STAYS ON TRACK...A WINTER STORM WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

IMPACTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT COLD
CONDITIONS THAT ARE IN PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW
COULD OCCUR DURING OR BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY. TO MAKE
MATTERS WORSE...ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
BE WHIPPED AROUND BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE FINAL INSULT WILL COME WITH A HUGE CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...AND LAST RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK IF
WE GET ANY SNOW COVER TO SPEAK OF.

Quoting jipmg:


Tampa is in the mid- upper 30s though.. so if that moisture gets to tampa, they could see some wet snow flakes

Sorry but I think the temps in Tampa are in the low 40's from what I just saw on the weather channel. I don't think the chances are good for flurries. Would be nice to see but...
Quoting tornadodude:

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
419 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-051145-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
419 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

...CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR MID TO LATE WEEK SNOWS...AND
BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE SNOW...

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE REGION WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS SUGGEST MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS
MIGHT OCCUR...WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 OR 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. IF THIS FORECAST STAYS ON TRACK...A WINTER STORM WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

IMPACTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT...GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT COLD
CONDITIONS THAT ARE IN PLACE...AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW
COULD OCCUR DURING OR BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE THURSDAY. TO MAKE
MATTERS WORSE...ANY SNOW THAT DOES ACCUMULATE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
BE WHIPPED AROUND BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE FINAL INSULT WILL COME WITH A HUGE CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR THAT
WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM...AND LAST RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK IF
WE GET ANY SNOW COVER TO SPEAK OF.


Here visiting the in-laws in Indy and they are calling for 2.9" on Thursday. Should be interesting at the least.
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 6 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy

32.7 F


Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: 30 °F
Humidity: 57%
Dew Point: 19 °F
Wind: 4.5 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 10.5 mph
Pressure: 30.36 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 2900 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Sorry but I think the temps in Tampa are in the low 40's from what I just saw on the weather channel. I don't think the chances are good for flurries. Would be nice to see but...


AS OF 11 PM

TAMPA 38 33 82 320 at 5 30.16 1021.2 10 35 SCT ...KTPA
TAMPA/MACDILL 48 40 74 290 at 4 30.16 1021.5 10 43 BKN ...KMCF
TAMPA/VANDENBER 32 32 100 0 at 0 30.16 10 CLR ...KVDF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
941 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR JIM HOGG...BROOKS...AND KENEDY COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT UNTIL 9 AM TOMORROW MORNING. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES IS
FILTERING COLD AIR INTO OUR CWA. WFO CRP HAS ALSO ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING FOR PARTS OF THEIR CWA. THE MORNING FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO STAY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND LOW LYING AREAS
OF THESE THREE COUNTIES.

AT 6 PM THIS EVENING A POTENT 150 KNOT JET STREAM IS LOCATED OVER
LATITUDE 25 OVER ORIENTED EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WE ARE ON THE WESTERN TIP OF THE JET STREAM. VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THIS JET IS EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY EVENING
WHICH WILL KEEP SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE SKY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS JET DISSIPATES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT AND RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ON FRIDAY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMING
EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED FOR LONG TERM FORECAST UPDATE.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE /PICK DAY/ OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND WARM TEMPS THAT DRAW WINTER TEXANS TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS RETURNS.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED UPWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFF THE
COAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGE
OF DEEP S TX. SUNSHINE WILL BE THE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE WEST
WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP BRING THE WINDS MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE ISOHUMES
AND ISOTHERMS WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY AID IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT.

NOW ON TO THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE...A LOOK AT THE METARS ACROSS
THE UPPER NORTHERN HEMISPHERE MAY MAKE YOUR BONES QUIVER IF YOU ARE
NOT A FAN OF OLD MAN WINTER. 01Z OBS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPS AT THE SURFACE. MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THIS COLD AIRMASS TO SPILL OVER INTO THE CONTINENTAL
UNITED STATES AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE TIMING AT THIS TIME.

WILL NOT GO INTO MUCH DETAIL ABOUT THE TEMPS AS PREVIOUS AFD AND
FORECAST CREW HANDLED THIS WELL. HIGHS WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT/EARLY MORNING AND THEN FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
BIGGEST THERMAL AFFECTS TO THE HUMAN PSYCHE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PERSONS GOING TO WORK/SCHOOL THURSDAY
MORNING MAY VERY WELL HEAD IN WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S TO EVEN ISOLATED
POCKETS NEAR 70 DEGREES ONLY TO HEAD HOME IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. SPEAKING OF
WINDS...INITIAL WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH WINDS OCCURRING BUT SPEEDS WILL INCREASE A FEW
HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS SHIFT INTRODUCED WINTRY PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST AND I SEE
NO REASON TO DISAGREE. JET MAX STRENGTH AND POSITION OVERHEAD WILL
HELP AID IN ALLOWING MOISTURE TO CONDENSE INTO PRECIPITATION.
THICKNESS LEVELS ARE MARGINAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP TO OCCUR BUT THE
FORECASTING OF WINTER WEATHER PRECIP TYPE IS HANDLED MUCH BETTER BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. 12Z AND 18Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WANT TO
DEVELOP PRECIP ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THURS NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. A QUICK LOOK AT THE GEM REVEALS THAT IT WANTS TO
KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE GFS. LATEST GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY...SOMETHING TO KEEP
IN MIND. SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL UNDERCUT A WARMER
LAYER ALOFT..RESULTING IN AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN AT TIMES. NOT REALLY LOOKING AT ANY SN TO
OCCUR...BUT CAVEAT IS IF MORE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OCCURS THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN THERE MAY BE A FEW SN FLAKES MIXED IN AT
TIMES. ON A SIDE NOTE...IF THIS INDEED DOES OCCUR...AND ATTM THERE
APPEARS TO BE A SLIM CHANCE OF DOING SO...THE FLAKES WILL LIKELY BE
LARGE. AS ALWAYS WITH WINTER WX IT/S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT ANY
SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE WIDE RANGE OF VARIABLES CAN CHANGE A FORECAST
GREATLY.
AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS
EXPECTED AND ANY PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO A SMALL PART OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

FREEZES ARE LOOKING QUITE LIKELY THURS/FRI/SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH HARD
FREEZES POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHTS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST AS CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS..AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 20S. HARD
FREEZE PRODUCTS MAY BE REQUIRED BY MID WEEK.
588. jipmg
it was 38 as of an hour ago in tampa, Im sure its 35-37 now, and the precip is becoming heavier on base radar (what is actually at the surface) I think snow is a possibility for tampa tonight.
for anyone who is in the wundercast contest ya got 9 mins to enter your forecast
Quoting jipmg:
it was 38 as of an hour ago in tampa, Im sure its 35-37 now, and the precip is becoming heavier on base radar (what is actually at the surface) I think snow is a possibility for tampa tonight.
I am watching this same thing. The temps have been rising over the past hour though do to the increase in clouds... it still can snow at about 40 degrees though
.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
for anyone who is in the wundercast contest ya got 9 mins to enter your forecast


for what?
What is the record for consecutive days below freezing?

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

...INFORMATION ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD...

BEGINNING TOMORROW...PADUCAH KENTUCKY AND EVANSVILLE INDIANA WILL
HAVE SEEN 5 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES NEVER CLIMBING ABOVE 32
DEGREES F. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT 7
DAYS WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...BRINGING THE TOTAL TO 12+ DAYS
STRAIGHT THAT THE MERCURY HAS FAILED TO CLIMB ABOVE 32 DEGREES.

LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORD BOOKS...WE HAVE OBTAINED THE TOP 5 WINTER
EVENTS WHEN PADUCAH AND EVANSVILLE HAD THE SAME SCENARIO. THE DATES
BEGIN IN 1937 AND CONTINUE TO THE PRESENT.

IN PADUCAH:

RANK # OF DAYS END DATE
1 - 13 DAYS ENDING 1/21/1978

2 - 11 DAYS ENDING 1/03/2001

3 - 11 DAYS ENDING 1/28/1940

4 - 10 DAYS ENDING 12/24/1989

5 - 7 DAYS ENDING 1/11/1979

THIS CURRENT STREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TOP 5 BEFORE IT IS OVER.

IN EVANSVILLE:

RANK # OF DAYS END DATE

1 - 18 DAYS ENDING 1/03/2001

2 - 17 DAYS ENDING 1/23/1918

3 - 16 DAYS ENDING 2/10/1978

4 - 14 DAYS ENDING 1/22/1978

5 - 13 DAYS ENDING 1/30/1940


2010 IN EVANSVILLE ALSO COULD EASILY MOVE INTO THE TOP 5 AS THIS
COLD SNAP IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.


The moment comet was eaten up after orbiting too close to the sun


By Scott Warren
Last updated at 1:42 AM on 05th January 2010
My Forecast (NWS):

Overnight: Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 14. West northwest wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 23. West northwest wind between 8 and 11 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 9. West northwest wind between 5 and 8 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 25. West northwest wind between 5 and 7 mph.

Wednesday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 19. West northwest wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday: Snow. High near 22. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 11.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 17.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 6.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 21.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 9.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 25.
.LONG TERM...
THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE OUTLYING MODEL...TAKING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM A LITTLE
FASTER AND TO THE SOUTH OF INDIANA THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE
ECMWF HAS COME INTO LINE WITH THE GEM...AND THE NAM IS TURNING OUT
AS EXPECTED...ALL TAKING A MORE NORTHERN TRACK. THIS WOULD PUT THE
FORECAST AREA RIGHT UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET...AROUND 100 TO 150 KTS.

FRONTOGENETIC FORCING CONTINUES TO BE DECENT IN THE MID
LEVELS...BUT THE MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS DEFINITELY
INHIBITING PWATS....QPFS ARE RANGING BETWEEN 0.15 TO 0.25.
NONETHELESS...THE SNOWFALL COULD START AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THE DURATION OF THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY
A BIG ROLE IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY...STILL THINKING IN THE
3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.


IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURGE OF VERY
COLD AIR BEHIND IT...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE THROUGH ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRESH SNOW COVER WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.
It's ridiculous how there is a vast range of temp. in Tampa from the different reporting stations.
Fox and Bay News 9 has 40
Accuweather has 32
Weather Channel has 43
NWS and wunderground has 40

Accuweather always hypes things and the weather channel must be reporting closer to the water.

I live in Largo and just went outside to my amazement it seems warmer than about 7-8 o'clock. I see their is precip. moving in will have to see if it reaches the ground and how far inland it goes.
A couple of the NWS offices around me are calling for 15-20 to 1 ratios with the coming snow:

NWS St. Louis: VERY COLD SFCS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO EASILY
ACCUMULATE AND NATURE OF STORM FAVORS HI LIQUID-TO-SNOW RATIOS...
PERHAPS AS HI AS 20:1...BUT PRIMARILY USED A MORE CONSERVATIVE 15:1
FOR THIS FORECAST. A WINTER WX ADVISORY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A
GOOD POSSIBILITY...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...AND THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE ADDRESSED ON TUESDAY.


NWS Central Illinois: BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN
06-18Z ON THURSDAY...WITH 3-4 INCH VALUES FAIRLY COMMON WITH DRY
SNOW RATIOS OF 18-20 TO 1. WINDS EXPECTED TO CRANK UP FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF MAIN SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

NWS Paducah Kentucky: NOT LOOKING AT TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF HERE...ON THE
ORDER OF .20 TO .25 LIQUID EQUIVALENT. HOWEVER...WITH THE AIR MASS
BEING SO COLD...WOULD LIKELY SEE OVER 15/1 RATIO ON THE SNOW
AMOUNTS...WHICH PUT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 3 TO 4 INCH RANGE.

NWS Louisville Kentucky: WITH
SNOW RATIOS IN 15:1 TO 20:1 RANGE AND WITH THE PROJECTED QPF FROM
THE 12Z MODELS...SNOW ACCUMS FOR WED NIGHT - THURS NIGHT LOOK TO BE
IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE AT THIS TIME

NWS Indianapolis: THE ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE AREA IS DEFINITELY
INHIBITING PWATS....QPFS ARE RANGING BETWEEN 0.15 TO 0.25.
NONETHELESS...THE SNOWFALL COULD START AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THE DURATION OF THE SYSTEM WILL PLAY
A BIG ROLE IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY...STILL THINKING IN THE
3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.
Quoting tornadodude:
A couple of the NWS offices around me are calling for 15-20 to 1 ratios with the coming snow

BTW, what does 15-20 to 1 ratio mean?
You gotta love Paul Delagotto he keeps it real
From http://www.cbs3springfield.com/weather/classroom/weathercharts/6550997.html

Liquid Equivalent Chart

When it rains, it's pretty easy to see how much water stacked up from a particular storm, but when it snows it's a little more difficult. Most of the time, the fallen snow has to be melted down and then measured as if it were rain. Since snow contains less water per flake than a rain drop, it naturally takes a larger volume of snow to amass the same water content of a smaller measurement of rain. Well, there's a pattern that shows up where in advance we can get an idea of how much snow is going to fall from a storm if we know how much water it can put down. Here's a conversion chart showing that pattern. The 'standard' conversion at about 32 degrees, is a 10:1 ratio...Meaning, if you melted down 10" of snow, you would have 1" of water.
Quoting 954FtLCane:

BTW, what does 15-20 to 1 ratio mean?


A lil moisture is gonna make alot of snow.

One inch of liquid precip will cause 15-20" of snow.
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 4, 11:54 pm EST

Overcast

11 °F
(-12 °C)
Humidity: 77 %
Wind Speed: W 10 MPH
Barometer: 30.22" (1024.4 mb)
Dewpoint: 5 °F (-15 °C)
Wind Chill: -3 °F (-19 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Quoting tornadodude:
From http://www.cbs3springfield.com/weather/classroom/weathercharts/6550997.html

Liquid Equivalent Chart

When it rains, it's pretty easy to see how much water stacked up from a particular storm, but when it snows it's a little more difficult. Most of the time, the fallen snow has to be melted down and then measured as if it were rain. Since snow contains less water per flake than a rain drop, it naturally takes a larger volume of snow to amass the same water content of a smaller measurement of rain. Well, there's a pattern that shows up where in advance we can get an idea of how much snow is going to fall from a storm if we know how much water it can put down. Here's a conversion chart showing that pattern. The 'standard' conversion at about 32 degrees, is a 10:1 ratio...Meaning, if you melted down 10" of snow, you would have 1" of water.

Thanks for the info and the answer back.
Quoting Patrap:
Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 6 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy

32.7 F

Approaching damn cold north of the big puddle:

Quoting 954FtLCane:

Thanks for the info and the answer back.


no problem!
Kenner, LA 10 miles west NOLA

Current Conditions, Historical Data & Charts

30.6 F

NNW at 25.5 mph

30.48 in 0.00 in / hr


Wind Chill 16F
check out Sat. night forecast for Tampa which is subject to change http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail/USFL0481?dayNum=4



Thurs should be very interesting into Friday atmo,..then really Stupid Dixie Cold Blue Northern thru Sunday

Do yer driving tom and Weds and be ready if in this WInter Wx advisory.

Winter Weather Advisory, Freeze Warning

Statement as of 11:46 PM CST on January 04, 2010

... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM Wednesday
to 10 am CST Sunday...

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM Wednesday
to 10 am CST Sunday.

By late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning... a surface low
will start to develop over the northwestern Gulf. This will cause
temperatures to warm slowly with moisture increasing across the
area. Initially... light to moderate showers will be possible but
by late Thursday morning... a very cold airmass will begin to push
into the region. Rain will begin to change over to sleet and then
snow Thursday morning for areas in southern Mississippi along
with the felicianas and point coupee Parish. By Thursday
afternoon areas along and north of the 10/12 corridor will likely
see a mix of rain... sleet... and snow. At this time we are not
expecting much in the way of accumulation but a light dusting to
half an inch of accumulation on grassy areas would not be out of
the question.

All of the moisture will move out of the area by Thursday evening
and then the greater issue arrives... very cold temperatures. An
Arctic airmass will continue to move in and remain over the area
from Thursday night through Sunday. This airmass is associated
with near -40 degree temperatures in the interior of Canada. With
a nice snow pack across the upper and Central Plains as well as
the upper and mid Mississippi Valley the airmass will not
moderate considerably. The airmass is expected to bring very cold
temperatures to the area that could be comparable to the Arctic
outbreak of early February 1996... but not as low as those
experienced during the 1985 and 1989 Arctic outbreaks. Multiple
nights with lows in the teens will be possible across southern
Mississippi and portions of southeast Louisiana that are
generally north of the 10/12 corridor. Across the southshore...
lows could drop to into the lower to mid 20s for multiple nights.
The coldest temperatures are currently forecast to occur Saturday
morning with lows ranging from 13 near McComb to 23 at Galliano.
Even though it is not forecast right now... this airmass does have
the potential to cause lows that could bottom out in the single
digits across isolated locations in southern Mississippi and
maybe into the teens around the New Orleans Metro.

In addition to the cold temperatures breezy north winds will be
ongoing both Friday and Saturday mornings. This in combination
with the real cold temperatures will lead to hazardous wind chill
readings down into the single digits.

These conditions could become life threatening and at the very
least hazardous to property. Residents should make preparations
for extremely cold temperatures now.

To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor pipes...
pipes should be wrapped... drained... or allowed to drip slowly.
Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain their
systems... or cover any above-ground pipes to protect them from
freezing.

Pets are also subject to the extreme cold. Keep pets indoors as
much as possible. If this is not possible... make sure outdoor
pets have warm dry shelter... and provide sufficient food and
fresh unfrozen water.

Be particularly careful with portable heaters... there is a danger
of fire or poisonous fumes. Make frequent checks on the elderly.
Make sure their furnaces are working and heating the house
properly.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.





837 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2010

... Freeze warning remains in effect from midnight tonight to 8 am
CST Tuesday...

More cold air is expected to filter into the region this tonight.
While areas near and along tidal lakes may remain slightly above
freezing in the morning... many areas beyond 3 miles south and
southwest of Lake Pontchartrain will experience a light freeze
with a freeze duration of 4 to 6 hours.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

Be particularly careful with portable heaters... there is a
danger of fire or poisonous fumes.

Pets are also subject to the extreme cold. Keep pets indoors as
much as possible. If this is not possible... make sure outdoor
pets have warm dry shelter... and provide sufficient food and
fresh unfrozen water.
Link
this link is the potential arctic blast and a wintry mix with hard freezes take a look
It's too warm for snow if the clouds would've held off and allowed for more cooling then yes we would have had a few flurries. I guess we will see tomorrow night.
g'night fellow bloggers!
later i am out as well goodnight all stay warm stay safe see ya with model updates around 8 am


For those North Texans or curious amongst ya, I put together a new blog for our N TX Siberian Express"

Link
Night TD,and KOTG,..stay warm.
Quoting btwntx08:
Link
this link is the potential arctic blast and a wintry mix with hard freezes take a look

Wow! that's amazing at least all of that mess is happening at the end of the work week. I've lived in FL. for all of my 21 yrs. and I recall in '05 seeing ice on the ground while taking the bus to going to school someone said how it was colder here than someplace in Montana.
Maybe "Epic Siberian Outbreak" is too extreme. However this system is bringing some of the wildest and coldest weather to MANY PARTS of the US over the last 10+ years!
Quoting Bordonaro:
Maybe "Epic Siberian Outbreak" is too extreme. However this system is bringing some of the wildest and coldest weather to MANY PARTS of the US over the last 10+ years!

Hey Bordonaro do you think (speaking for the southeast US) that we will see another arctic outbreak before the winter's over?
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Hey Bordonaro do you think (speaking for the southeast US) that we will see another arctic outbreak before the winter's over?


It is possible, I'd say around a 25% chance, and it will not be as severe or as long lasting, IF we receive another Arctic outbreak. However, the GFS/ECMWF models are "hinting" at a moderating trend starting on or around 1/11/10, with a return to more normal temps
Night Folks! I'll be back around 9AM in the morning!!
Quoting Patrap:

hey Pat.. how did u get that map?
"Save Image as" from NOAA NWS New Orleans

..Upload to photobucket,

Then post here.
30 degrees here in tally, gonna be a COLD week. Well for me.
thanks pat!
Quoting Bordonaro:
Maybe "Epic Siberian Outbreak" is too extreme


Not according to the modals(if correct). To this day they haven't backed off on the extreme outbreak this weekend and gain mid-next week!

Yep as you said, don't expect any real moderating trends until at least 2/11/09. Until then, bungle up.
sat overnight low is 18! yikes!
Quoting weatherbro:


Not according to the modals(if correct). To this day they haven't backed off on the extreme outbreak this weekend and gain mid-next week!

Yep as you said, don't expect any real moderating trends until at least 2/11/09. Until then, bungle up.
you mean 2010 i guess.
Here's a map I made for Thursday night.. NHC says Jacksonville, Florida will have rain in the low 30s, I think sleet may end up being the precip type.

Photobucket

Also note the CMC has been consistent with energy from the Pacific storm cutting off and heading southward into Texas then the GOM right when the "Siberian Arctic Outbreak" occurs. This would mean snow from Texas to Florida. 10% happening as of now, but I can see how it happens.

SORRY, WRONG MAP.. ACTUAL MAP REPOSTED.
Quoting jipmg:


Tampa is in the mid- upper 30s though.. so if that moisture gets to tampa, they could see some wet snow flakes


The only limiting factor I see is very dry air at the lower levels(dewpoints in the teens).
Quoting ElConando:
you mean 2010 i guess.


opps yeah thanks El lol.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FOUR
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 08-20092010
10:00 AM Réunion January 5 2010
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (999 hPa) located at 10.9S 85.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance was reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 11.7S 84.5E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 12.5S 82.9E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
48 HRS: 13.7S 79.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 14.4S 76.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=========================
System is still ill-defined. First visible imagery and latest ASCAT data (0322z) suggest the system still have an ill defined northwest-southeast elongated center within its broad clockwise circulation. Strong deep convection with some fairly good outflow has sustained over the western semi circle. The main center has just appeared east of the main convection. A secondary vortex (visible on SSMIS of 2312z) is located at more than 150 NM southeast of the main center. ASCAT data confirms intensity analysis with winds in the 25 knot range. Surface low pressure is derived from data buoy (53567) which shows a minimal value of 999 hPa at 2300z (corrected from the barometric tide). On the forecast track, the shear is expected to progressively weaken as the system should get closer to the upper level ridge located southwards. Divergence should be good mainly equatorwards. Low levels inflow and oceanic heat content are very good up to range 72 hrs.

The system should therefore intensify slowly first and then closer to the climatological rate. The forecast is based on the available models, which are rather in good agreement, despite a difference in motion.
Was fast and furious in the wind..5-8 Minutes;

Small dry flakes





Current Conditions

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 59 sec ago

30.3 F
Light Snow

Windchill: 25 F
Humidity: 57%
Dew Point: 18 F
Wind: 5.9 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 12.3 mph
Pressure: 30.36 in (Falling)
Visibility: 9.0 miles
Elevation: 20 ft
Rapid Fire Updates:
Daughter had flat and had to retrieve her 5 miles away,left car to fix in the am,,..was crazy FLurries,LOL

640. IKE
I've got 27.9 degrees.

Glad your daughter is okay.

This snow chance coming up and cold weather is going to be brutal.
641. IKE
Hello to some caring people in Walnut Ridge,Arkansas...near Jonesboro...it's cold...

Walnut Ridge, Arkansas (Airport)
Updated: 14 min 24 sec ago
Clear
12 °F
Clear
Windchill: -2 °F

Humidity: 57%
Dew Point: 0 °F
Wind: 12 mph from the NW
Pressure: 30.41 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 272 ft
642. IKE
27.3 my low for this morning and winter.
its 26 here in Monroe,La
31 here in J'ville at 0420
Iron Mountain, Michigan (Airport)
Updated: 2:54 AM CST on January 05, 2010
17 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 4 °F
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 12 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 25 mph
Pressure: 30.22 in (Steady)
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Overcast 1300 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1181 ft

646. IKE
25.2 now.
647. unf97
Good morning Ike

I see you are up early. I have 28.2 degrees currently. We had some clouds moved in for a few hours this morning which kept the temps up for awhilw.. A weak vort max moved through and now the skies have cleared.

Should see temps drop off now through up to sunrise.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
407 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2010

...ACCUMULATING SNOW COMING TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...

.A WINTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LATE TUESDAY EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW WILL PRODUCE 3 TO
5 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE
VALLEY CITY AND FARGO AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AND MAY INCREASE UP TO 25 MPH BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WOULD PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.
HAZARDOUS WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
39.7 °F
Mostly Cloudy


So much for the Freeze Warning. Most sites, inland Palm Beach, didn't get out of the 40's. They do have 27 as the low tomorrow morning, that would tie the all time record in West Palm, based on this morning though, we'll see.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I like your weather stickie, Doug! Very nice.
ecent florida 42 on one 44 on the other called this the freeze the tv hyped up that never was gm effect not really overcast moved in last night
g'g'g mor-r-r

hi ya'll

too cold, temp doesn't matter any more
653. unf97
Good morning aquak!


I feel ya about the cold! As you toled me last night, keep on thinking about those the heat index values in the summer to help get you though this. Lol.

Not that long from now b4 we will be having that actually.

Temp now 26.7, which is the low so far this morning.
22.5*F in Macon, Ga this morning, 65% humidity, high today is supposed to hit 38*F and drop tonight to 18*F. Still calling for rain/snow for Thursday. Time for coffee. Be back later. :)
Morning, all.

63 here, which is about as cold as one expects at this time of year. Dunno what overnight lows were like - don't see any hourly stats here - but my A/C hasn't been on since Sunday a.m....... I don't think we broke 70 yesterday, and I don't think we will today, either. That's pretty cold for Nassau.

Brrrr.... bundle up good, folks! and have a great one!
RTLNK, when I think of Macon, I think of dusty back roads, folks sittin' outside laughin' enjoyin' family and friends in the sunshine..

not below freezing temps!!

29º coastal Jax, something like that. Not as bad as further inland.
and unf? I got a garden to plant. This cold REALLY holds me back.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
It's too warm for snow if the clouds would've held off and allowed for more cooling then yes we would have had a few flurries. I guess we will see tomorrow night.
GT, where r u these days that's cool enough for potential snow?
baha- I think cooliboi is somewhere north, inland of Tampa
660. unf97
RTLSNK, you may see some accumulation of snow up there in North GA region Thursday -Thrusday night. Still questions as to how much moisture from the GOM disturbance will be available. Today hopefully the model runs will be more in agreement with that issue.

Quoting aquak9:
baha- I think cooliboi is somewhere north, inland of Tampa
k. That makes sense. Somehow I didnt' think it was cooler in Grand Turk than it is in Nassau, 600+ miles NW.... lol
ok, ya'll stay warm. Even you, poor baha, AC not even kicking on (grumble grumble) :)

or is that my teeth chattering?

go in peace, carry on.
I gotta go. Today's not an early day for me, but I still need to beat the a.m. traffic. Somehow I don't think too many pple are going to leave their houses EARLIER than usual....

l8r
aqua, it's a waste of energy to set the a/c to 74 inside when outside it's 63.....
665. P451
Five Day Accumulated Snowfall Forecast - GFS




Incidentally the NAM is showing a similar swath of snow but marginally lighter.
666. P451
Quoting BahaHurican:
aqua, it's a waste of energy to set the a/c to 74 inside when outside it's 63.....


I have, even here in NJ, run the A/C when the outside temp is lower than the inside temp. Reason? Humidity! The A/C pulls the moisture out of your air. I have felt 60 degrees that felt more like 80 at times up here and run the a/c to drop that humidity out.
Good Morning from chilly SE LA

Concession, Belle Chasse, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 37 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
28.5 °F
Scattered Clouds
Windchill: 28 °F
Humidity: 72%
Dew Point: 21 °F
Wind: 3.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 30.37 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2700 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 3 ft
27F on Johns Island SC
669. unf97
Aquak, it's at 29*F out near Jax Beach.

BTW, the surf temp now down to 52 degrees. Brrr.. Wet suit anyone!

Temp now 25.6 degrees at my inland Jax location.

This will be the third consecutive morning of dropping to mid 20s.

Max temp expected today only mid 40s with NW winds 15 with gusts to up 25-30 mph throughout the day.



670. P451
Mount Holly, NJ:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TONIGHT ABOUT THE STRENGTH AND
INTENSITY OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE GFS WHICH HAD BEEN
ON ONE END OR THE OTHER OF THE INTENSITY SCALE THE LAST TWO NIGHTS
IS NOW NEAR THE CONSENSUS AVERAGE. WHILE NOT FORECAST TO BE A
ROBUST SYSTEM WHAT IT LACKS IN MOISTURE IT WILL GAIN WITH WHAT
SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SNOW TO WATER EQUIVALENT RATIOS,
COLD SURFACES THAT WILL START ACCUMULATING SNOW INSTANTANEOUSLY
AND A PREDOMINATELY NIGHTTIME OCCURRENCE FOR OUR CWA. POPS HAVE
BEEN RAISED TO LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT
COINCIDES THE BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PASS THE CLOSED LOW
THROUGH OUR CWA. IN THE INSTABILITY FIELDS WE CAN SEE THAT THE
COLD POOL ALOFT CAUSES FORECAST TOTAL TOTALS TO REACH THE MID 40S
AND MID LAPSE RATES TO EXCEED 6C/KM. WHILE RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS
LIKE AN OVERALL LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT, THE PASSAGE OF THE
CLOSED LOW THROUGH OUR CWA, IF CORRECT, RAISES THE ADAGE OF
FINDING A SURPRISE UNDERNEATH IT.

THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS BY EARLY SATURDAY, AND AS IT DOES A VERY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM (1040+) WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS AND
BUILD EWD. DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A HIGH OF THIS
STRENGTH, EXPECT DRY WX FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDD PD. HOWEVER,
THIS ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO VERY COLD TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE MDLS WRT THIS HIGH BUILDING
IN. BY TUESDAY, THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST IN BREAKING DOWN
THE RIDGE A BIT AND BRINGING IN A WK CDFNT AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THAN THE GFS IS. HIGHS OF THIS MAGNITUDE DON`T GIVE UP SO EASILY,
AND SINCE ITS BEYOND DAY 7, WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE DRY
FCST ATTM. HOWEVER, SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED AT A
LATER POINT.
way its turning out today. is going to be a cold one e cen. florida
672. IKE
Morning low here is 22.8.
We are climbing now up to 23.2 over hee in Mobile!..lol..we got down to 21.6 I think - at least that is what I saw over on NWS site...
Good morning...

32.7F at my location and decreasing. The wind overnight sure kept the temp from falling too quickly but of course tonight will be another story.
Its 20.0 here in N Mobile county! Ba Humbug, I hate the cold!
Still no freeze here this winter north of Orlando but I think we might get one tonight. The high today is only 48. Next week though looks much warmer with highs in the 70s come mid week also, with this will come severe weather come Fri. or Sat.
678. unf97
Gotta run folks. My morning low was 25.6 degrees. Right now at 8 a.m. it is 26.7 degrees.

Cold windy day on tap with highs struggling to reach the low-mid 40s.

BBL today on the blog. Have a great day folks and stay warm!
It could seem like a colder day today across Florida as Winds will be higher today as Tampa will have winds of nearly 20mph today...that will fell much colder with that much wind. BB late tonite....have a good day everyone!
Yep there will be no snow in Florida this winter. If there was going to be ANY snow it would be the next few days but this potential is very unlikely. Starting next week will be a much warmer and stormier pattern as I stated several days ago. Longer warm spells with much shorter cold spells. Several more days and the warmup will begin.
There was no ice on my car today! It wasn't because it wasn't cold enough, it was because the air is so dry... IN FLORIDA? I don't remember an entire week of hard freeze lows in our forecast.
The sun is out and we still haven't hit 30.
Even the hard freezes that killed the orange groves in the 80's seemed to last about 3 days, not all week.
Quoting leftovers:
ecent florida 42 on one 44 on the other called this the freeze the tv hyped up that never was gm effect not really overcast moved in last night



Yeah, I noticed the overcast when the sun came up this morning. Maybe we'll see the same thing tomorrow morning and avoid the freezing temps, good for crops.
Quoting biff4ugo:
There was no ice on my car today! It wasn't because it wasn't cold enough, it was because the air is so dry... IN FLORIDA? I don't remember an entire week of hard freeze lows in our forecast.
The sun is out and we still haven't hit 30.
Even the hard freezes that killed the orange groves in the 80's seemed to last about 3 days, not all week.


Lived here for 26yrs near Tampa and never had it cold for this long of stretch. Seen colder days before but, not cold for 2 weeks in a row like this.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Yep there will be no snow in Florida this winter. If there was going to be ANY snow it would be the next few days but this potential is very unlikely. Starting next week will be a much warmer and stormier pattern as I stated several days ago. Longer warm spells with much shorter cold spells. Several more days and the warmup will begin.

GM sorry, I missed your previous post, was that based on MOS, climo, hunch, caterpillars... ?
:)
Quoting HIEXPRESS:

GM sorry, I missed your previous post, was that based on MOS, climo, hunch, caterpillars... ?
:)


Computer models, with one being the GFS. It is showing a warmer pattern and a stormier pattern for the south next week. It does not appear that it will be this cold for this long of a stretch the rest of the winter. Which in Florida especially C and S FL we only see a good couple of weeks of winter a year. So this appears to be our couple of weeks then comes the heat.
Tampaspin,

Here in Ft myers I would back your statement of colder days seen but never in such a long stretch! I can only back you for 17 years....not 26. :)

We had a small shower this morning so I will take it.
688. IKE
WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Clear
21.9 °F

Clear
Windchill: 22 °F
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 14 °F
Wind: 3.0 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 30.29 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
You guys crack me up! :D

It's a big deal when it gets really hot or really cold, but not up here in the mountains.

Here's a sticky from close by my home.



Believe it or not, this is actually a warm morning here in the winter. Normally, it's about 5-10 degrees above 0.

LOL! Ya'll freeze your petooties off today. :)
PS: Doug, have your checked your rasta e-mail lately?

No call? What's the problem?
Quoting HIEXPRESS:

GM sorry, I missed your previous post, was that based on MOS, climo, hunch, caterpillars... ?
:)


Also, our last freeze on average is the first week of Feb. in Orlando. So another few more weeks and our freeze potential will most likely be over.
..WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
REGION STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* TIMING...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST FROM MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE A GOOD BET
REGION WIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE. WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALL SNOW
SHOULD STICK WITH NO MELTING...AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
A PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW THUS REDUCING VISIBILITIES. THE
COMBINATION OF SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE
TRAVEL ISSUES OR DELAYS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE REGION.

* OTHER IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF THE ANTICIPATED SNOW PACK AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LINGERING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WIND
CHILL READINGS WELL BELOW ZERO DURING THE SAME PERIOD.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

WTH? Patrap, did you guys have a little bit of Lake effect snow from Lake Pontchartrain?!?

Good lord. Looks like the wind laid down a little more than expected.

It isn't the cold people I'm looking at, it is the plants. Mangroves will definitely be moving south along the coast this year.
I just hope the weeds turn to mush along with the rest of the yard.
Lawrenceville-Vincennes Intl Airport
Lat: 38.76 Lon: -87.6 Elev: 430
Last Update on Jan 5, 6:53 am CST

A Few Clouds

7 °F
(-14 °C)
Humidity: 73 %
Wind Speed: NW 9 MPH
Barometer: 30.30" (1026.9 mb)
Dewpoint: -0 °F (-18 °C)
Wind Chill: -7 °F (-22 °C)
Visibility: 8.00 mi.


You guys can keep that cold stuff... its 6 am and its still warmer here.
Miami shivers from coldest weather in decade

Residents of Miami donned heavy coats and wool mufflers Monday to face down the coldest weather to hit the usually balmy city nearly in a decade.

This subtropical city's fabled beaches, normally thronging with sun worshippers this time of year, were all but deserted after temperatures plummeted to around zero degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit).

Homeless people, at risk from prolonged exposure to the cold, took to area shelters for the night on Sunday.

The temperature fell even lower in northern Florida, where Orlando and surrounding areas registered temperatures of minus six degrees Celsius (21 degrees Fahrenheit).

Forecasters said the cold snap -- the worst to hit Florida since January 2001 -- could bring even colder temperatures later in the week.
NWS:

What is the record for consecutive days below freezing?

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 PM CST MON JAN 4 2010

...INFORMATION ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD...

BEGINNING TOMORROW...PADUCAH KENTUCKY AND EVANSVILLE INDIANA WILL
HAVE SEEN 5 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES NEVER CLIMBING ABOVE 32
DEGREES F. THE MOST RECENT FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT 7
DAYS WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...BRINGING THE TOTAL TO 12 DAYS
STRAIGHT THAT THE MERCURY HAS FAILED TO CLIMB ABOVE 32 DEGREES.

LOOKING BACK AT THE RECORD BOOKS...WE HAVE OBTAINED THE TOP 5 WINTER
EVENTS WHEN PADUCAH AND EVANSVILLE HAD THE SAME SCENARIO. THE DATES
BEGIN IN 1937 AND CONTINUE TO THE PRESENT.

IN PADUCAH:

RANK # OF DAYS END DATE
1 - 13 DAYS ENDING 1/21/1978

2 - 11 DAYS ENDING 1/03/2001

3 - 11 DAYS ENDING 1/28/1940

4 - 10 DAYS ENDING 12/24/1989

5 - 7 DAYS ENDING 1/11/1979

THIS CURRENT STREAK WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TOP 5 BEFORE IT IS OVER.

IN EVANSVILLE:

RANK # OF DAYS END DATE

1 - 18 DAYS ENDING 1/03/2001

2 - 17 DAYS ENDING 1/23/1918

3 - 16 DAYS ENDING 2/10/1978

4 - 14 DAYS ENDING 1/22/1978

5 - 13 DAYS ENDING 1/30/1940


2010 IN EVANSVILLE ALSO COULD EASILY MOVE INTO THE TOP 5 AS THIS
COLD SNAP IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.


Tropical Low

A Tropical Low off the west coast of the Top End is weakening as it makes landfall near Port Keats. Embedded in an active monsoonal trough, the Tropical Low will help to deliver heavy rain and storms over the Top End.

The low is estimated to be 10 kilometers east-northeast of Port Keats and 215 kilometers northeast of Wyndham moving southeast at 7km/h

With a central pressure of 991hPa and wind gusts of 85km/h near the centre, the Tropical Low is no longer expected to develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE.

The Cyclone WARNING from Kalumburu to Daly River Mouth has been canceled.

No further cyclone warnings will be issued for this system.
Annual Australian Climate Statement 2009

Issued 5th January 2010
Link
Quoting Orcasystems:


You guys can keep that cold stuff... its 6 am and its still warmer here.

I'm with ya Orca.

Well the clouds rolled in about 10pm last night for St. Petersburg and Tampa, keeping them warmer than forecasted. It was 42.4 degrees when I woke up and it was suppose to be 36 degrees. Didnt get those last 6 degrees because of the clouds keeping the heat in the atmosphere.
holy bat Cave Ike..its cold out dere!!!!



Wind chills here are Brutal
23.0 °F
Clear
Windchill: 16 °F
Humidity: 71%
Dew Point: 15 °F
Wind: 10.0 mphfrom the West
Wind Gust: 10.0 mph
Pressure: 29.60 in (Rising)

Been busy lately. Whomever turned the heat off in the south, could you please turn it back on.
Thanks
Gotta go get a Tire and have it mounted and Balanced,then go put on the car.

Sheesh,Im too old fer dis stuff.
Come Thursday,I may fly to Cancun.
Hope everybody had a wonderful Christmas and a prosperous new year. Yeah I am late but ODG I have been covered up at work.
Current Conditions


Omaha, Nebraska (Airport)
Updated: 8:15 AM CST on January 05, 2010
-15 °F
Freezing Fog
Windchill: -15 °F
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: -18 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.48 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 100 ft
Mostly Cloudy 400 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Snow Depth: 16.0 in
Elevation: 984 ft


Quoting unclemush:
Current Conditions


Omaha, Nebraska (Airport)
Updated: 8:15 AM CST on January 05, 2010
-15 F
Freezing Fog
Windchill: -15 F
Humidity: 84%




Thanks for making me feel a little warmer
Quoting HurricaneNewbie:
Glad to help. :)
Do yer driving today and Weds and be ready if in this WInter Wx advisory.

Winter Weather Advisory, Freeze Warning

Statement as of 11:46 PM CST on January 04, 2010

... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM Wednesday
to 10 am CST Sunday...

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM Wednesday
to 10 am CST Sunday.

By late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning... a surface low
will start to develop over the northwestern Gulf. This will cause
temperatures to warm slowly with moisture increasing across the
area. Initially... light to moderate showers will be possible but
by late Thursday morning... a very cold airmass will begin to push
into the region. Rain will begin to change over to sleet and then
snow Thursday morning for areas in southern Mississippi along
with the felicianas and point coupee Parish. By Thursday
afternoon areas along and north of the 10/12 corridor will likely
see a mix of rain... sleet... and snow. At this time we are not
expecting much in the way of accumulation but a light dusting to
half an inch of accumulation on grassy areas would not be out of
the question.

All of the moisture will move out of the area by Thursday evening
and then the greater issue arrives... very cold temperatures. An
Arctic airmass will continue to move in and remain over the area
from Thursday night through Sunday. This airmass is associated
with near -40 degree temperatures in the interior of Canada. With
a nice snow pack across the upper and Central Plains as well as
the upper and mid Mississippi Valley the airmass will not
moderate considerably. The airmass is expected to bring very cold
temperatures to the area that could be comparable to the Arctic
outbreak of early February 1996... but not as low as those
experienced during the 1985 and 1989 Arctic outbreaks. Multiple
nights with lows in the teens will be possible across southern
Mississippi and portions of southeast Louisiana that are
generally north of the 10/12 corridor. Across the southshore...
lows could drop to into the lower to mid 20s for multiple nights.
The coldest temperatures are currently forecast to occur Saturday
morning with lows ranging from 13 near McComb to 23 at Galliano.
Even though it is not forecast right now... this airmass does have
the potential to cause lows that could bottom out in the single
digits across isolated locations in southern Mississippi and
maybe into the teens around the New Orleans Metro.

In addition to the cold temperatures breezy north winds will be
ongoing both Friday and Saturday mornings. This in combination
with the real cold temperatures will lead to hazardous wind chill
readings down into the single digits.

These conditions could become life threatening and at the very
least hazardous to property. Residents should make preparations
for extremely cold temperatures now.

To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor pipes...
pipes should be wrapped... drained... or allowed to drip slowly.
Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain their
systems... or cover any above-ground pipes to protect them from
freezing.

Pets are also subject to the extreme cold. Keep pets indoors as
much as possible. If this is not possible... make sure outdoor
pets have warm dry shelter... and provide sufficient food and
fresh unfrozen water.

Be particularly careful with portable heaters... there is a danger
of fire or poisonous fumes. Make frequent checks on the elderly.
Make sure their furnaces are working and heating the house
properly.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.
715. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
holy bat Cave Ike..its cold out dere!!!!



Wind chills here are Brutal


LOL.
GOM IR Loop

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center to Provide Greater Lead Time in Watches and Warnings


NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami will issue watches and warnings for tropical storms and hurricanes along threatened coastal areas 12 hours earlier than in previous years. According to NHC experts, advancements in track forecasts are making it possible for forecasters to provide greater lead time.

Tropical storm watches will be issued when tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within 48 hours. Tropical storm warnings will be issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. This is an increase of 12 hours from those issued in previous years.

Similar increases in lead-time will apply to hurricane watches and warnings. The hurricane watches and warnings will generally be timed to provide 48 and 36 hours notice, respectively, before the onset of tropical storm force winds. That additional time will also allow people preparing for the storm – securing oil rig platforms, getting food and water stockpiled, boarding windows, etc., – enough time to finish preparations and get to safe shelter.
With a stream of clouds into the state i dont see any freezeing temps across metro dade/broward counties. You can thank El Niño for that.
Whats the status on the short wave coming thru the south west?
Just saw your post Oz. Gonna check mail!
721. eddye
it looks like broward has the clouds moving out right know so it will make it be a cold night today with some frost possible
722. eddye
tonight
Quoting unclemush:
Current Conditions


Omaha, Nebraska (Airport)
Updated: 8:15 AM CST on January 05, 2010
-15 °F
Freezing Fog
Windchill: -15 °F
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: -18 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.48 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 100 ft
Mostly Cloudy 400 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Snow Depth: 16.0 in
Elevation: 984 ft




Niiice! Now that's winter, kids!

I grew up in central MO and then St Louis, Unclemush, so I know from WC -15 and freezing fog...LOL
just got in from breaking ice for the chickens , dogs, cats,, they are sheltered ,thick ice , i cannot inagine what my 92 year grandmother went thru ,back in the 20 and 30s in cold like this,in rural nc,, no electric until 1948, the 1928 snowstorm dropped 3 feet of snow on them i think march 2,
Quoting gregpinehurstnc:
just got in from breaking ice for the chickens , dogs, cats,, they are sheltered ,thick ice , i cannot inagine what my 92 year grandmother went thru ,back in the 20 and 30s in cold like this,in rural nc,, no electric until 1948, the 1928 snowstorm dropped 3 feet of snow on them i think march 2,


They got through it...wood stoves, fireplaces and layered clothing. We really are as tough as they were, we just dont get much chance to show it...LOL
Tahlequah, Oklahoma (Airport)
Updated: 36 min 47 sec ago
16 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: 10 °F
Humidity: 53%
Dew Point: 1 °F
Wind: 4 mph from the North
Pressure: 30.48 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 2600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 873 ft

This is in NE OK. Another day in paradise with no need for sunscreen. Also forcast to be -1 on Thurs. 01-07-10. Much colder than I recall here!
Folly Beach, SC pier...
Link
I have to tell you eyes, before I had the surgery, it couldn't get cold enough for me...after, though and I get the chills pretty easy. Hope that changes; bitterly cold crisp mornings are my favorite!
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 5, 9:54 am EST

Fair

7 °F
(-14 °C)
Humidity: 76 %
Wind Speed: W 9 MPH
Barometer: 30.24" (1025.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 1 °F (-17 °C)
Wind Chill: -7 °F (-22 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
My home town, Fulton MO

Where I live now, Fort Worth TX

No room for the folks here to complain...


WOW
Quoting Floodman:
I have to tell you eyes, before I had the surgery, it couldn't get cold enough for me...after, though and I get the chills pretty easy. Hope that changes; bitterly cold crisp mornings are my favorite!
I grew up in Northern MI. and have been away from cold weather for 30 years, now i move to OK it gets pretty cold and seems extreme to me.

Your comment reminds me of how the grandparents would often say the weather is about to change due to an ache or pain in a healed wound or scar
around 29.8 degrees in Tallahasse. Really cold, gonna be a long week for someone who's from Miami. I god used to mid 40's but come on!
Quoting Floodman:
I have to tell you eyes, before I had the surgery, it couldn't get cold enough for me...after, though and I get the chills pretty easy. Hope that changes; bitterly cold crisp mornings are my favorite!

those bitterly cold mornings do wonders for clearing out your sinuses.
An old favorite I came across...thought specifically of Grothar and Portlight.

"If you want others to be happy, practice compassion.
If you want to be happy, practice compassion."
-Dalai Lama

Link
Quoting eyesontheweather:
I grew up in Northern MI. and have been away from cold weather for 30 years, now i move to OK it gets pretty cold and seems extreme to me.

Your comment reminds me of how the grandparents would often say the weather is about to change due to an ache or pain in a healed wound or scar


There are studies that say that's nonsense, but I have 4 bolts and a carbon fiber lattice in my back that says otherwise
Quoting Floodman:
My home town

Fulton MO


OMG are you serious, I have never experienced temps like that. I don't think i ever will.
Good Lord Aussie!!!!!!!!!!! Take that down!!! It's depressing...
Quoting Floodman:
I have to tell you eyes, before I had the surgery, it couldn't get cold enough for me...after, though and I get the chills pretty easy. Hope that changes; bitterly cold crisp mornings are my favorite!

My back is worse in winter, at the moment, summer time, I am having no problem.
I enjoy the cold, but some snow would be nice!
Quoting jeffs713:

those bitterly cold mornings do wonders for clearing out your sinuses.
Generally speaking I would much prefer a warm afternoon at an outdoor table of a nice Mexican resuraunt with a great view of the beach, a baskett of chips and a bowl or 2 of great Hot Sauce and a cold beverage to accomplish a sinus cavity cleansing
i'm guessing the peak of the front is Sat into Sunday. Overnight lows in the teens then.
Quoting jeffs713:

those bitterly cold mornings do wonders for clearing out your sinuses.


Yep...it makes you move lighter and faster too and you can hear things from miles off it seems...
Quoting unclemush:
Current Conditions


Omaha, Nebraska (Airport)
Updated: 8:15 AM CST on January 05, 2010
-15 °F
Freezing Fog
Windchill: -15 °F
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: -18 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.48 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 100 ft
Mostly Cloudy 400 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Snow Depth: 16.0 in
Elevation: 984 ft




Freezing fog. LOL!
Quoting Floodman:


Yep...it makes you move lighter and faster too and you can hear things from miles off it seems...

That is the lack of humidity as much as the denser cold air...I think.
Quoting AussieStorm:


OMG are you serious, I have never experienced temps like that. I don't think i ever will.


Nearly every winter until I was about 30; winters have been MUCH milder in the central US since then (about 1990).

It's really not hard Aussie; you layer your clothing and make sure you keep your feet warm. I bought a pair of Fabiano Hikers when I was 19 and working outdoors a good bit in the the winter and they made all the difference. Took me 20 years and 3 resolings but I finally wore them out...
Quoting ElConando:


Freezing fog. LOL!


Quoting ElConando:
i'm guessing the peak of the front is Sat into Sunday. Overnight lows in the teens then.


oh thats when another front comes in. Thurs.
Quoting atmoaggie:

That is the lack of humidity as much as the denser cold air...I think.


You are correct sir! Less dulling of the sound waves due to lower moisture in the air...the other thing is that most folks aren't as crazy as me and stay in their warm houses when it's that cold; less background noise...LOL
Quoting Floodman:


Yep...it makes you move lighter and faster too and you can hear things from miles off it seems...
Hearing things clearer and further off yes, I agree. As for moving faster and lighter.....Can't speak for others but I generally have an additional 20 lbs of layers on and it does slow me down LOL
Quoting tornadodude:




My relative in Ohio talked about a freezing fog once. First time i've heard that term in a while. They said it stinks for it to be so cold and not being able to see anything.
Quoting ElConando:


My relative in Ohio talked about a freezing fog once. First time i've heard that term in a while. They said it stinks for it to be so cold and not being able to see anything.


yeah it is really pretty though. I have been skiing during freezing fog at night, and it was a pretty sight.
Quoting ElConando:


My relative in Ohio talked about a freezing fog once. First time i've heard that term in a while. They said it stinks for it to be so cold and not being able to see anything.


The other issue is that it freezes to everything...your outer garments, glasses, cars...my personal favorite: handrails and stairs
Quoting Floodman:


You are correct sir! Less dulling of the sound waves due to lower moisture in the air...the other thing is that most folks aren't as crazy as me and stay in their warm houses when it's that cold; less background noise...LOL


In many cold fronts in Miami i could always hear a trains horn and in fact it moving a long. The tracks are a mile away from my house.
Quoting Floodman:


The other issue is that it freezes to everything...your outer garments, glasses, cars...my personal favorite: handrails and stairs


Ski lifts :P
Quoting Floodman:


You are correct sir! Less dulling of the sound waves due to lower moisture in the air...the other thing is that most folks aren't as crazy as me and stay in their warm houses when it's that cold; less background noise...LOL

This is one of those few mornings a year when one could see the dome, CBD, and CCConnection from the north toll booth on the bridge, thanks to the same.
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Generally speaking I would much prefer a warm afternoon at an outdoor table of a nice Mexican resuraunt with a great view of the beach, a baskett of chips and a bowl or 2 of great Hot Sauce and a cold beverage to accomplish a sinus cavity cleansing

That was me last weekend at manly beach here in Sydney. I had crumbed fish and a basket of hot chips covered in salt and vinegar. oh and a few choice ale's too.
759. unf97
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Whats the status on the short wave coming thru the south west?


Doug, that shortwave is currently diving east -southeastward over the Northern Baha California area. It still looks rather vigourous this morning on the water vapor imagery. This piece of energy, if it can hold together and not get flattened out, can be the "trigger" for the GOM Low later this week.
Quoting atmoaggie:

This is one of those few mornings a year when one could see the dome, CBD, and CCConnection from the north toll booth on the bridge, thanks to the same.


Yep, but my personal preference is for dull overcast and extremely cold, though bright bitter mornings are good as well
Quoting ElConando:


In many cold fronts in Miami i could always hear a trains horn and in fact it moving a long. The tracks are a mile away from my house.

I am about 1.5 miles from the nearest rail line and i hear the train horns. I also hear the traffic lights crossing buzzer which is about 1/4 mile away.
Well guys, I think I am changing my major :p
I guess i better get off to bed. its 3am and the kids will be awake in about 5hrs.
Goodnight all, stay safe and stay warm.
Quoting Floodman:


Yep, but my personal preference is for dull overcast and extremely cold, though bright bitter mornings are good as well
Good Morning Flood, 18 degrees w/ flurries here. looks like diamonds in the air because the sun is shining through them. How is your back?
Janaury is predicted to be the 10th warmest on record this year,according to the experts.Nothing can stop it now.The heat is on people.
766. IKE
Looking at the 12Z GFS. Looks like the zero line comes into NW Florida at 60-66 hours and has some precip lagging behind it for a short distance.

Looks like about a 12 hour period of precipitation ending as possible frozen precip.
have a good one Aussie
JUST IN

Region: SOLOMON ISLANDS
Geographic coordinates:9.216S, 157.930E Magnitude:5.8 Mb Depth:35 km
Universal Time (UTC): 5 Jan 2010 13:11:43
Time near the Epicenter: 6 Jan 2010 00:11:43
Location with respect to nearby cities: 172 km (107 miles) SE (136 degrees) of Gizo, Solomon Islands
178 km (110 miles) SW (223 degrees) of Dadali, Solomon Islands
223 km (139 miles) W (277 degrees) of HONIARA, Solomon Islands
1178 km (732 miles) E (90 degrees) of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea
Strong aftershocks rattle Solomons after quake and tsunami

* From: AFP
* January 06, 2010 2:49AM

A SERIES of powerful aftershocks rattled the Solomon Islands late last night, a day after a 7.2-magnitude quake and tsunami left around 1,000 people homeless on the remote Pacific islands.

The aftershocks, ranging from magnitude 5.3 to 6.9 struck just minutes apart from around 2315 (AEDT) and came as officials visited isolated villages to check on damage after Monday's earthquake.

The latest aftershocks struck very close to Monday's quake, according to seismologists at the US Geological Survey.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre said there was no threat of a tsunami but warned localised destructive waves were possible.

Information from the remote area remained sketchy but a police patrol boat from the capital Honiara left on Monday night to assess damage in the region about 300km west of the capital.

There were no reports of deaths or serious injuries following the quakes and tsunami on Monday.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

Another 5.1 magnitude aftershock rattled the region yesterday morning and a 6.2 aftershock late on Monday sent villagers fleeing for higher ground, said the director of the Solomon Islands Disaster Management Office, Loti Yates.

"The quake frightened a lot of people into running away from their coastal villages,'' Yates said.

He added that landslides had occurred on Rendova and Tetepare islands following the 7.2 quake and an earlier 6.5 tremor.

"We are still waiting for the latest reports since the survey of the area yesterday,'' Yates said.

The office said damage was caused by the earthquakes and a tsunami of up to about 2.5m, according to officials in the region.

Officials reported on Monday that at least 500 homes had been damaged or destroyed but Yates said these were all in the Morovo Lagoon area and further damage on Rendova and Tetepare was still to be assessed.

Rendova is home to around 3,600 people, according to UNICEF, which is rebuilding 19 schools on the island following an April 2007 tsunami that killed 52 people in the region, destroyed hundreds of homes and displaced thousands.

UNICEF Pacific representative Isiye Ndombi said rapid response teams had been sent to Rendova and Tetepare, a largely uninhabited island except for an eco-tourism venture.

"It will take several days however until we know the full extent and consequences of this tsunami because these islands are very remote and difficult to access,'' Ndombi said.
GFS starting to come in a bit of agreement with the CMC, showing possible weak low in the GOM after our first one. Sleet into Orlando, can't wait to see the rain/snow precip GFS on this one.
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...4 AM CST THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY

* MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...FOLLOWED BY
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE SNOWFALL WILL STICK TO ROAD
SURFACES WITH NO MELTING...AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
A PERIOD OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
PROBLEMS OR DELAYS ACROSS THE MID STATE.

* OTHER IMPACTS...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS
BELOW ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&
As far as the stream of the clouds over Dade/broward counties there are 2 reasons for this is one being the subtropical jet stream is providing moisture and the polar jet stream is also far to the south which is providing enough dynamics to form clouds ahead of the impulses that are moving through.There's definitely a chance for freezeing temps for the far western areas.

adrian
773. unf97
Jacksonville, FL NWS Weather Forecast Office
Jax International Airport

Current Conditions 11:00 a.m.

SUNNY

Temperature: 35*F
Dew Point: 16*F
Wind: West 12 mph with gusts to 22mph
Wind Chill Index: 27*F
Pressure: 1023 mb F
Visibility: 10.0 miles

Official morning low temperature measured at Jax WFO for 01/05/10: 26*F
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Just saw your post Oz. Gonna check mail!


Thank goodness. You were doing such a great job of ignoring me, I thought I'd crossed a line with you. :)
Quoting tornadodude:
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...4 AM CST THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY

* MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION...FOLLOWED BY
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE SNOWFALL WILL STICK TO ROAD
SURFACES WITH NO MELTING...AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
A PERIOD OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
PROBLEMS OR DELAYS ACROSS THE MID STATE.

* OTHER IMPACTS...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
MID STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS
BELOW ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&
This should prove interesting for us up on the Cumberland Plateau. Right now 14 degrees w/ flurries.
Quoting tornadodude:
Well guys, I think I am changing my major :p


OK, I'll bite. To what?
Yesterday 74 °F

in The OC.....


hi SQUAWK....
Quoting SQUAWK:


OK, I'll bite. To what?


ha Public Relations, marketing, etc :P
Quoting help4u:
Janaury is predicted to be the 10th warmest on record this year,according to the experts.Nothing can stop it now.The heat is on people.


Tell that to the people all the way down to Mexico and over to Florida this weekend.
but I generally have an additional 20 lbs of layers on and it does slow me down

eyes...me too...it's called blubber...that's why I'm on a diet!

:)
Quoting hydrus:
Good Morning Flood, 18 degrees w/ flurries here. looks like diamonds in the air because the sun is shining through them. How is your back?


Generally pretty good...back spasms and a little pain, but walking (I don't have to use a cane) and the use of minimal pain meds/muscle relaxants seem to do the trick. Unless of course its very cold...LOL

Thanks, for asking!

It's about 29 here right now and clear as can be...now, Thursday will be another story...low in the low teens and a high in the mid twenties...
Quoting NRAamy:
Yesterday 74 °F

in The OC.....


hi SQUAWK....


Hi kid, good to see you. Are we having any fun lately? Like maybe a new rain dance?
no fun, SQUAWK.....I've been banned way too many times on here....I think the geeks have me on auto-ban....
Quoting tornadodude:


ha Public Relations, marketing, etc :P


What was your major?
Quoting tornadodude:


ha Public Relations, marketing, etc :P


So my friend is going to major in BS...there are a fair number of us here that could teach those courses
Quoting NRAamy:
no fun, SQUAWK.....I've been banned way too many times on here....I think the geeks have me on auto-ban....


Bummer. Cold weather is boring and needs some humor to spice it up. Unless you are up to your kazakass in snow, then it may not be boring - just a pain.
So, has anyone read the new action/adventure novel my friend and I are writing about hurricanes? It's up to Chapter 5 and Ivan is forecast to hit Tampa! :)

Chasers

In the introduction, I fictionalize the tragedy of the PB4Y-2 typhoon hunter mission of October 1945 that Dr. Masters posted here in June 2009.
during this cold outbreak don't forget to protect any outside plumbing.
Quoting Floodman:


Generally pretty good...back spasms and a little pain, but walking (I don't have to use a cane) and the use of minimal pain meds/muscle relaxants seem to do the trick. Unless of course its very cold...LOL

Thanks, for asking!

It's about 29 here right now and clear as can be...now, Thursday will be another story...low in the low teens and a high in the mid twenties...
I think we might get whacked pretty bad here on the plateau. Place still looks messy from our last storm. Going to get my wisdom teeth pulled (two up top) do you know anything about this procedure?
Quoting SQUAWK:


What was your major?
Quoting Floodman:


So my friend is going to major in BS...there are a fair number of us here that could teach those courses


ha yeah :P it was meteorology, but I think I'm better suited to keep that as a hobby, and focus more on what I am more capable of doing
On that map in 789, anybody else notice that it's as cold in Central Florida as it is in southwestern ALASKA????

Wow.
Quoting BahaHurican:
On that map in 789, anybody else notice that it's as cold in Central Florida as it is in southwestern ALASKA????

Wow.


whoa
43 still here in Tampa at noon.
Good Morning! "The Siberian Blast is Coming! The Siberian Blast ic coming Link to my updated blog :0):

Link
43 still here in Tampa at noon.

yeah, baby...dig that global warming....
Quoting NRAamy:
43 still here in Tampa at noon.

yeah, baby...dig that global warming....


Amy,please don't go down that road.(Cringes)
The GFS and NOGAPS forecast models trending toward the very slim chance scenario, very slowly though. Just shows moisture backing in after the front arrives. This would mean snow/ice/sleet mess Saturday morning as far south as Orlando, still a wait and see..

Maybe the CMC isn't too crazy after all..
Tonight is the night to cover up sensitive outdoor plants if you have them in PALM BEACH COUNTY, FL.


Tonight: Patchy frost after 4am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 31. Northwest wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Wednesday: Patchy frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 56. Wind chill values as low as 26 early. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Quoting hydrus:
I think we might get whacked pretty bad here on the plateau. Place still looks messy from our last storm. Going to get my wisdom teeth pulled (two up top) do you know anything about this procedure?


Are you talking about the Cumberland Plateau in TN? I have family outside of Chattanooga, on Dayton Mountain. Thought about driving up for the snow, on account of I don't think we'll get a flake here in Pensacola.
Quoting tornadodude:


ha yeah :P it was meteorology, but I think I'm better suited to keep that as a hobby, and focus more on what I am more capable of doing
Are kidding about switching majors? ? ?
Purdue Forecast:

This Afternoon: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as -1. West northwest wind between 11 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Wind chill values as low as zero. West northwest wind between 7 and 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as -1. West wind around 8 mph.

Wednesday Night: Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 13. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday: Snow. High near 22. North northwest wind between 6 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Thursday Night: Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 9. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy and cold, with a high near 14.

Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 1.

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 13.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 20.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 9.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 23.
Quoting Floodman:


So my friend is going to major in BS...there are a fair number of us here that could teach those courses

I will have a PhD in Procrastination... when I get around to it.
Quoting hydrus:
Are kidding about switching majors? ? ?


no.. I think that I will try this out for a little bit to see if I like it. I'm pretty much exploring my options right now.
Quoting GBguy88:


Are you talking about the Cumberland Plateau in TN? I have family outside of Chattanooga, on Dayton Mountain. Thought about driving up for the snow, on account of I don't think we'll get a flake here in Pensacola.


OK...Why would anyone go toward snow?!?!?!?!?! Snow is of the Devil...
Quoting presslord:


OK...Why would anyone go toward snow?!?!?!?!?! Snow is of the Devil...


Quoting GBguy88:


Are you talking about the Cumberland Plateau in TN? I have family outside of Chattanooga, on Dayton Mountain. Thought about driving up for the snow, on account of I don't think we'll get a flake here in Pensacola.
Yes, We had strong winds and rain with the last storm. (large branches down, awnings etc..There saying to stay tuned, it could get pretty rough around here.
Quoting tornadodude:




...exactly...
Quoting tornadodude:


no.. I think that I will try this out for a little bit to see if I like it. I'm pretty much exploring my options right now.
I will just say I would be quite surprised if you did. You seem to have a handle on it.
Quoting hydrus:
I will just say I would be quite surprised if you did. You seem to have a handle on it.


I do, but math has always been my weakness, and speaking and language have always been my strengths
Quoting presslord:


OK...Why would anyone go toward snow?!?!?!?!?! Snow is of the Devil...


Well, I've only ever seen it one time in my life, so what better way to experience it again than by sliding into the back of someone else's car, into a ditch, guard rail, etc...Floridians can drive in snow too :P
Quoting GBguy88:


Well, I've only ever seen it one time in my life, so what better way to experience it again than by sliding into the back of someone else's car, into a ditch, guard rail, etc...Floridians can drive in snow too :P


pinball!
If you're going to major in public relations you MUST attend the Henry W. Grady School of Journalism and Mass Communications at the University of Georgia...there is simply no other rational choice...let me know when you want me to send the letter of recommendation...
Quoting tornadodude:


I do, but math has always been my weakness, and speaking and language have always been my strengths
Talk to your Professor again. He could help, maybe recommend certain good books, or possibly a tutor.
Quoting GBguy88:


Well, I've only ever seen it one time in my life, so what better way to experience it again than by sliding into the back of someone else's car, into a ditch, guard rail, etc...Floridians can drive in snow too :P


My recommendation is to take a sick day...snow is easy, as long as you know that you slow it way down. Here in DFW we got the Christmas snow this year and while it wasn't too bad, I saw people doing 50-60 on slick road...and, well, bam! In places where there is a good deal of snow on a regular basis, most folks just stay off the roads and let us pros have them...LOL
Quoting presslord:
If you're going to major in public relations you MUST attend the Henry W. Grady School of Journalism and Mass Communications at the University of Georgia...there is simply no other rational choice...let me know when you want me to send the letter of recommendation...
That was a very kind gesture Press.:)
Quoting NRAamy:
but I generally have an additional 20 lbs of layers on and it does slow me down

eyes...me too...it's called blubber...that's why I'm on a diet!

:)
So the message here is that my closet is full and your pantry is empty
We get the same clowns up here driving like it was summer conditions,I just get out of the way and let them go nuts,usually see them off the road somewhere.
Quoting hydrus:
That was a very kind gesture Press.:)


Thanks...but...as one of their more inglorious alumni, it might do more harm than good...

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1042 am CST Tuesday Jan 5 2010


Update...


The forecast is on track for today and the hard freeze warning is in
good shape through tonight. As for the potential winter weather event
late Wednesday night and Thursday...the 12z guidance is indicating a
little better potential for freezing rain over northeast portions of
the forecast area and this trend is being watched closely. Snow is
looking less likely given even warmer middle level temperatures showing
up in the new guidance. Will wait until afternoon forecast package to make
any grid changes for winter weather. Updated aviation discussion is below.
/Ec/


&&


Previous discussion... /issued 438 am CST Tuesday Jan 5 2010/


.Wintry weather possible late Wednesday night into Thursday...
.significant Arctic outbreak expected for Fri-sun...


Short term...the focus of the forecast will remain on temperatures as the
first Arctic airmass grips the County Warning Area and steadily modifies over the
next 48hrs before the next more significant frigid airmass impacts
the area. This morning has offered almost ideal rad cooling
conditions with clear skies and light to calm winds. A very weak
pressure gradient still exists over the County Warning Area as the surface ridge axis
extends from north to S and is positioned just to our west. As the
center of that surface ridge shift our way today...look for weak cold air advection to
persist and that will help keep temperatures from warming much. Low level
temperatures at 925mb will continue to hold in the -4 to -7c range today
and that will support readings from the lower 30s north to lower 40s
south. The north 1/3rd of the County Warning Area will likely struggle to reach the
freezing mark today even with full sunshine. I continued to cut the
GFS MOS guidance and used a blend of the NAM/GFS MOS.


For tonight...surface ridge will be located directly overhead. One would
think this would support the coldest night. That may be the case for
some locations in the east...but I don't think it will be for all of
the area. The reason is that low level 925 and 850mb temperatures will be
somewhat warmer than what is currently being observed.
Actually...surface temperatures to our west which are under the surface high are
not falling off a great deal and I feel that a similar trend may
occur over our area tonight. As a result I stayed with or very close
to MOS guidance with only a few small tweaks.


Due to the prolonged period freezing conditions with lows reaching
the upper teens and highs staying around the freezing mark...I will
leave the hard freeze warning as is.


Wednesday will be the transition day as the current cold airmass will see
it most modification as the atmosphere responds to the next system
and warm air advection aloft gets going. The warm up will not be great...but Wednesday
will be the warmest day of the week with highs around 40s north to middle
40s south. GFS guidance temperatures were decent and I used a blend of the
NAM/GFS for highs. Look for middle/high clouds to increase late in the
day as well as ascent aloft increases.


Wednesday night will see the onset of precipitation...mainly across the west and
around or after midnight into the morning of Thursday. Determining precipitation
type is the main issue with this period. As is the case with any
wintry precipitation...1 to 2 degrees is critical in figuring out what type
certain areas will get. This will be the case for this period as warm air advection
aloft will have to warm/moisten and erode the cold/dry air that will
be in place. The latest model data is similar to previous runs with a
trend to being a bit warmer in the crucial layers aloft. As
result...thinking is that our County Warning Area will see all precipitation types occur as
you cross the County Warning Area from north to S. Looks like the SW will remain warm
enough to see mostly rain with some possibility that will begin to
change to sleet/snow just before the precipitation ends. West-central sections
will likely see a mix of rain/sleet/snow with the northwest seeing snow.
The best chances to measure any precipitation will be along and west of I-55.
Areas to the east look to remain too dry and I will stay with the low
guidance probability of precipitation and only mention slight precipitation chances. For that I-55
corridor...as the dry air is getting moistened up...cooling will
occur and sleet looks likely with a similar transition and mix as I
described for the western areas as you go from S to north across the
County Warning Area. Some accumulation will be possible...but the primary time for
all that will be during the first half of the Thursday period and will be
discussed below. /Cme/


Long term...Thursday through Tuesday...the main story in the long
term continues to be the wintry weather expected followed by the
bitterly cold temperatures expected for the weekend.


Models have come in a bit warmer for tonights run than was the case
last night. What looked to be snow for more of the region last night
than rain has switched tonight and is more of a wintry mess this
run. Still expect the area that has the best chance for mostly all
snow will be along the north across the Highway 82 corridor and this
has remained rather consistent over the past few days. Temperatures
should remain cold enough through the day to avoid any sort of
melting/refreezing issues. The further south in the County Warning Area we get the
more complicated the precipitation type gets. Between the Highway 84
corridor and about the I-20 corridor...there should be an area of
mixed precipitation where some melting will occur and have a mix of rain
and snow. Exactly where this will occur is still hard to pinpoint.
Across the I-20 corridor...there is also a likely chance to see some
sleet mixed in as well as model soundings show a period during the
day on Thursday where some melting can occur followed by some
refreezing that would lead to sleet, so have added this to the
forecast for Thursday. South of I-20 is a little less complicated as
models show this area being the warmest and likely to see more rain
than snow. Have bumped up probability of precipitation in the south as they should likely
see measureable rain during the day. If enough cooling can take
place this rain may change over to some snow but feel that a full
change-over is not likely and will maintain a rain/snow mix through
the end of the event. By late afternoon...snow should begin to taper
off across the northwest as the system begins to move east.
Locations across the east could see a transition to more snow with
possibly some rain mixed in before the end of the event.


As far as accumulations...GFS ensemble members are in pretty good
agreement that the north should see about an inch or so with the
higher amounts just to the north of our County Warning Area. Some locations in the
north could possibly see between and inch and an inch and a half
most members are not as gung Ho with those amounts in our County Warning Area. If
the models trend warmer further north...then these amounts could
even be less as snow could mix with rain and limit the amount of
accumulation.


Most of the snow should be gone by around 00z Friday. There could
be some wrap around moisture from the upper low that may bring some
flurries to the north on Friday but most of the region should remain
dry. This is when the cold really comes in. Temperatures on Thursday will
fall during the day as evaporative cooling/wet bulbing occurs with
the onset the precipitation and conditions never get any better. As the
front has moved through the region...a 1050mb high builds down from
central Canada and strong cold air advection takes place. Friday will be very brisk
as strong northerly winds will make conditions feel even colder than
they are. Wind chills on Friday will be in the single digits making
for a very Bone chilling day.


Temperatures for the period on Friday night through Sunday have not
changed much as models still show 850mb temperatures between -10 and -15c
and 925mb temperatures in the -10 to -17c range. This will bring readings
in the single digits and teens for lows Friday night and Saturday
night. Highs on Friday will struggle mightily across the area.
Readings in the north should struggle to make it above 20 with highs
in the south between 25 and 28. Conditions will be slightly warmer
on Saturday but still Bone chilling despite full sunshine.


By Sunday night...conditions should very gradually improve as
modified surface high pressure resides over the area. Surface winds will
swing out of the south and the upper flow becomes more zonal.
Temperatures will slowly warm but still remain seasonal normals.


By Monday night and Tuesday...the surface high will shift to the east
and upper flow shifts southwesterly ahead of the next system. /28/
Quoting NEwxguy:
We get the same clowns up here driving like it was summer conditions,I just get out of the way and let them go nuts,usually see them off the road somewhere.

I'm with you there. When I was up in NH seeing some friends last year, we were driving down I-94 towards Boston, and someone blew by us doing 60-70. About 3 miles down the road, we saw the back end of their car, with the front end about 2 feet deep into a snow drift. Lets just say that we all found it highly amusing.
Quoting tornadodude:


I do, but math has always been my weakness, and speaking and language have always been my strengths

...because he broke his guitar...
Quoting jeffs713:

I'm with you there. When I was up in NH seeing some friends last year, we were driving down I-94 towards Boston, and someone blew by us doing 60-70. About 3 miles down the road, we saw the back end of their car, with the front end about 2 feet deep into a snow drift. Lets just say that we all found it highly amusing.


same issue with rain. Was on I-95 and it started raining so hard that most people slowed down to about 30mph because visibility was so low. But a few crazy people decided to still go 55 and dodge and weave out of traffic.
Quoting presslord:


Thanks...but...as one of their more inglorious alumni, it might do more harm than good...
Yeah, Yeah,.....Everybody is a saint but you.....jk...really...jk:)
GFS shows snow/ice/freezing rain for Central Florida with that small disturbance after the arctic air gets in.
Good afternoon, WU. I've stopped looking at temps; it's too depressing. Taz-the-Terrible-Terrier and I have a bit of arthritis that tells us more than we want to know.

Would the Portlight tribe/clan of WU Nation please be so kind and indulge me...pls. go to the Portlight blog and let me know if you think my entry #14 has any merit or if there's problems with legalities? (You may also want to refer to Ike's blog, re our dear "fur-kids"...whoever put that moniker in their entry...thank you, too)!

Many, many thanks in advance!
At least is gone up a bit but still is 35 degrees...
Quoting reedzone:
GFS shows snow/ice/freezing rain for Central Florida with that small disturbance after the arctic air gets in.


Is it that small that only central Florida gets it?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

...because he broke his guitar...
He was doing his Who impression..:)
Quoting hydrus:
He was doing his Who impression..:)

ROFL!!! (: ("His" backwards "smiley"!)
833. I can complain all I want, there is far worse a winter than winter in Tallahassee.
So the message here is that my closet is full and your pantry is empty

Yes!!!

:)
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Better get some heaters on those crops or some citrus lovers will be plenty mad.
Quoting ElConando:
At least is gone up a bit but still is 35 degrees...
I have not seen you post in a while Conan....To busy doing The Late Show?
Quoting ElConando:
833. I can complain all I want, there is far worse a winter than winter in Tallahassee.

We all have the right to complain... I live in Niceville.. you in tally El?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

ROFL!!! (: ("His" backwards "smiley"!)


I saw some where that the backwards smiley is an "Australian Smiley", which I do not really buy unless someone knows otherwise?
Actually El, I just re read that post haha.. i just woke up.. haha is there a good chance for us gettin any snow or?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

ROFL!!! (: ("His" backwards "smiley"!)
What ever do you mean? MY smiley is a symbol of perfection, yours is backwards....i think? ...I,m new at this, I don,t know. :)..(:
Quoting hydrus:
I have not seen you post in a while Conan....To busy doing The Late Show?


In the off-season (after Hurricane Season ends) I am on far less. I'm back for now for talk and experiences on this very cold, cold snap happening now.
Quoting presslord:
If you're going to major in public relations you MUST attend the Henry W. Grady School of Journalism and Mass Communications at the University of Georgia...there is simply no other rational choice...let me know when you want me to send the letter of recommendation...


thanks Press, but I would like to stay at Purdue if possible
838. NRAamy 5:27 PM GMT on January 05, 2010
So the message here is that my closet is full and your pantry is empty

Yes!!!

:)


Well, sorta :)
Amy's closet is full of SoCal clothes that us around the DC Beltway wouldn't dare wear! (Think of Hillary, Janet N. -- or MOI -- in a Bikini...help, more eye bleach, please!)
Quoting hydrus:
What ever do you mean? MY smiley is a symbol of perfection, yours is backwards....i think? ...I,m new at this, I don,t know. :)..:(


(;
801. NEwxguy 8:48 AM PST on January 05, 2010
Quoting NRAamy:
43 still here in Tampa at noon.

yeah, baby...dig that global warming....


Amy,please don't go down that road.(Cringes)




hahahahahahahaha!

;)
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:
Actually El, I just re read that post haha.. i just woke up.. haha is there a good chance for us gettin any snow or?


For now I'll go with the reports and no chance for snow and a very slight chance of snow flurries. On the Wunderground Site they showed a slight chance of snow flurries for Tallahassee on Thursday night when I looked Sunday, which the runs have backed off on today and they have since taken that chance down.
Quoting ElConando:


In the off-season (after Hurricane Season ends) I am on far less. I'm back for now for talk and experiences on this very cold, cold snap happening now.
I do believe this is much more then a (snap) which means cold temps returning to warmer temps quickly. A large region of the U.S. has not been above freezing for 4 days with no end in sight .
Quoting tornadodude:


(;
;) (: :) :()(::-09
probally headed for the coldest night of the yr so far e cent florida come and visit but watch your speed
Quoting ElConando:


For now I'll go with the reports and no chance for snow and a very slight chance of snow flurries. On the Wunderground Site they showed a slight chance of snow flurries for Tallahassee on Thursday night when I looked Sunday, which the runs have backed off on today and they have since taken that chance down.

Ya.. i would say if we do get any snow.. its going to happen thursday evening into the night.. for me it says..

Wednesday night and Thursday...forecasters will be watching next
upstream middle level disturbance to move southeastward out of the
central/Southern Plains. This feature to bring next Arctic surge of
what looks to be even colder air to the deep south. The 05.00 runs
of the European model (ecmwf) and GFS have come into somewhat better alignment on the
movement of the front since 24 hours ago...but still have differences
on the eastward progression and strength of their respective frontal
low pressure systems. The GFS still is a little faster...slightly
stronger and further southeast with its low moving over the northern
Gulf Thursday with the European model (ecmwf) coming in slightly slower and less
defined.


Both models bring an increased deep layer moisture signal
across the deep south Thursday and with the presence of cold air to
remain place...the possibility continues to exist that the deep
south could experience some wintry precipitation on Thursday. The
challenge this morning when considering the various solutions has
been diagnosing the rain...sleet and snow line and its eastward
progression. Forecasters have taken a blend of the GFS/European model (ecmwf)
solution of moisture and critical winter deep layer
thicknesses...but confidence in calling out one prevailing
precipitation Mode over another is still quite low during the day
Thursday. Thus...will call for a mix of rain...light sleet and snow.
Will not entirely rule out a bit of accumulation especially in our
northern zones Thursday where the coldest air will reside. As
front/low move east Thursday evening...there is a small chance of
complete change over to light snow on its back side before ending.
Quoting hydrus:
I do believe this is much more then a (snap) which means cold temps returning to warmer temps quickly. A large region of the U.S. has not been above freezing for 4 days with no end in sight .


4 days under 32! thats quite a while. Although it doesn't stay below Freezing for too long in Tallahassee. I'm in the coldest weather I have been in a decade.
Quoting hydrus:
What ever do you mean? MY smiley is a symbol of perfection, yours is backwards....i think? ...I,m new at this, I don,t know. :)..:(


(...still laughing...) Sorry, hydrus...TornadoDude always posts the "backwards" Smiley...that and the "upside-down" writing link he once posted have wreaked blog chaos occasionally! T-Dude's b-day is Jan. 9 when he'll be all of 19...will be working on appropriate payback...
Temp for this Sat high 43, overnight low 18.
Awake...I addressed your post on the Portlight blog...
So would you guys say the odds of places like Biloxi, Pensacola, Mobile seeing snow are better than with the last 'cold snap' that brought wintry weather? Temperatures are certainly going to be much colder at the surface...is it a question of whether or not the precip holds out? I'm a 'noob', not an expert...please be gentle :P
Good Morning/Afternoon everybody!

The 12Z GFS run keeps Dallas-Ft Worth, TX below freezing from early Thurs morning, 1/7 throughout about Noon on Sun 1/10/10. BRRRRR!!
Quoting presslord:
If you're going to major in public relations you MUST attend the Henry W. Grady School of Journalism and Mass Communications at the University of Georgia...there is simply no other rational choice...let me know when you want me to send the letter of recommendation...


Excellent recommendation, Press...but a "must"??

Our adopted baby boy is under the influence of the devil...aka SNOW!!

I.E. Newhouse (gotta' double-check that...sounds like MAD magazine)...of SYRACUSE U.

Towson U. near Baltimore not too shabby...has come a long way, I hear, might be worth checking out. Journalism school at U. of MD good, too...Connie Chung's alma mater...oh, never mind...look what happened to her...how the mighty have fallen, sigh.
Quoting ElConando:


4 days under 32! thats quite a while. Although it doesn't stay below Freezing for too long in Tallahassee. I'm in the coldest weather I have been in a decade.
You are in for some cold strange weather....We are to, they keep tweeking the forecast for the worse.
Quoting presslord:
Awake...I addressed your post on the Portlight blog...


THANKS! Going there now...
ʍoɥ are ya'll braving the weather this early afternoon?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


(...still laughing...) Sorry, hydrus...TornadoDude always posts the "backwards" Smiley...that and the "upside-down" writing link he once posted have wreaked blog chaos occasionally! T-Dude's b-day is Jan. 9 when he'll be all of 19...will be working on appropriate payback...
I was working on a ocean tug when I was 19 years old...Back in 1985. :) (:
Quoting hydrus:
You are in for some cold strange weather....We are to, they keep tweeking the forecast for the worse.


Well I am from Miami, and the only time i've been north of Orlando during winter before I started at FSU was Delaware. Where it was in the teens a couple of the days I was there.
Quoting ElConando:
ʍoɥ are ya'll braving the weather this early afternoon?


I love it. We so rarely see temps this cold, much less a chance for snow. For anyone stuck in the South that loves varying weather, it's nothing less than a treat :P I might just wake up early and step outside in my underwear to feel the single digit wind chills in all their glory.
Quoting GBguy88:
So would you guys say the odds of places like Biloxi, Pensacola, Mobile seeing snow are better than with the last 'cold snap' that brought wintry weather? Temperatures are certainly going to be much colder at the surface...is it a question of whether or not the precip holds out? I'm a 'noob', not an expert...please be gentle :P


Mid level temps and the amount of moisture as well as energy/disturbance will dictate the type and amount of precip you see; with this outbreak if you have any precip it would likely start as sleet or freezing rain and end as snow, though the last I saw you guys on the middle coast weren't going to see a lot of either...

Biloxi forecast
Quoting GBguy88:


I love it. We so rarely see temps this cold, much less a chance for snow. For anyone stuck in the South that loves varying weather, it's nothing less than a treat :P I might just wake up early and step outside in my underwear to feel the single digit wind chills in all their glory.


Yeah...about that...invigorating, but I don't recommend it for too long
Quoting ElConando:


Better get some heaters on those crops or some citrus lovers will be plenty mad.


Hype has already driven the price up a third.
Quoting Floodman:


Yeah...about that...invigorating, but I don't recommend it for too long


Nonsense...and scratch the walking around in my underwear...*eyes the swimming pool*. Good thing children aren't an immediate in my future.
Better get some heaters on those crops or some citrus lovers will be plenty mad.

Surprisingly enough, they actually turn the sprinklers on when it gets cold. Subsurface waters are warm and keep the frost off.
Quoting ElConando:


Well I am from Miami, and the only time i've been north of Orlando during winter before I started at FSU was Delaware. Where it was in the teens a couple of the days I was there.
I am from Miami myself( born Mt Sinai Hosp ) it does take a while to get use to it. :)
Quoting GBguy88:


Nonsense...and scratch the walking around in my underwear...*eyes the swimming pool*. Good thing children aren't an immediate in my future.


Precisely...as you eye the swimming pool. I'm crazy, 'tis true, but you're one up on me LOL
Just came back in this main blog after checking the Portlight blog and reading Presslord's latest entry. I'm very gratified to see a "green light" to continue discussion and merits pro-con about micro-loans.

Greetings again, Floodman, Conan, Cane, hydrus and all of ya's! Would very much like you to weight in on Portlight's blog, TIA!
Has anyone already taken the screenname "BlogKiller"? Do believe I qualify...
Good afternoon, all!

Downright balmy in Fort Worth, at least compared to what's in store later this week.
LST! I sceered everybody off!

Actually, would you pls. go to Portlight blog, too, and weigh in, if you wish?

Oh, and please save me your couch...frigid is one thing, but winds are coming back up...

I love New England, but there's reasons I don't live there!!

Update, ADD-ON: Just noticed you've already been to Portlight blog, LST! THANKS!
LOL..Our couch has your name on it, Awake! It's very comfy, too.

I will say that I've had about all the cold I can stand...but there's more to come, just in time for my b-day. I didn't ask for cold weather, so that means it's imperative that I get the only thing I DID ask for: a national championship for my Longhorns! :)
Still little if any snow :(

Morehead City, NC

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECAST GETS A BIT MORE INTERESTING THU NIGHT AS A SHEARED SHORT
WAVE ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE NORTHERN OHVLY
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. UNLIKE OTHER RECENT SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE
AREA...THIS IS MAINLY A NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED SYSTEM WITH LTL
CONTRIBUTION FROM THE MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHERN STREAM. SO AS WITH
MANY NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS...THIS ONE IS MOISTURE STARVED AND
FAST MOVING WHICH WILL LIMIT PCPN CHCS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACRS THE
AREA. HOWEVER THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY PCPN THAT DOES
FALL WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AREAS. MODEL FCST QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH WHICH SUGGESTS ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. OF COURSE MOST OF ANY SNOW THAT
DOES FALL WILL STICK OWING TO THE ANTECEDENT COLD GROUND TEMPS.
WILL CONT TO FCST LOW CHC POPS FOR NOW WITH A BIT HIGHER POPS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING ANY
PCPN RAPIDLY OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY MORN IN THIS QUICK HITTING
EVENT.

WELL BLO NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS
DEEP EAST COAST TROF REESTABLISHES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT
TEMPS WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS AS MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT EXPECT ANY WARMUP WILL BE
GRADUAL AS DENSE COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO DISLODGE.

Quoting LongStrangeTrip:
LOL..Our couch has your name on it, Awake! It's very comfy, too.

I will say that I've had about all the cold I can stand...but there's more to come, just in time for my b-day. I didn't ask for cold weather, so that means it's imperative that I get the only thing I DID ask for: a national championship for my Longhorns! :)


We have TWO comfy sofas...as for the cold, I agree; it's wasted on you...your birthday should be sunny and high 70s low 80s...I put in the order, you know; it nust have gotten screwed up in shipping.

Hi, Awake! LST is correct: there is room on our sofas for Edie LOL
Oh, Lord, that would be a first...me rooting for a Texas team...what the hell, anything for the couch...

go Longhorns...

Terps rule...since Deadskins, Wizards blankety-blank censored-dem's-banning-words.

Ice hockey, anyone? There's always at least hope with the Caps...
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
LST! I sceered everybody off!

Actually, would you pls. go to Portlight blog, too, and weigh in, if you wish?

Oh, and please save me your couch...frigid is one thing, but winds are coming back up...

I love New England, but there's reasons I don't live there!!

Update, ADD-ON: Just noticed you've already been to Portlight blog, LST! THANKS!


AIM, you're not a blog killer. We are out here floating around. I am still trying to wake up after a restless night sleep.

I've been reading Portlight's blog and I like your ideas of micro loans. Said "Good Afternoon" to aquak9, browsing through the GFS 12Z runs.
Since we have a "bye" weekend here,were gonna take the sprinkler and make a Hockey Rink and play a few games,..eh?
Marine... NWS Biloxi

a strong Arctic air surge has moved over the Gulf waters causing
high del-T numbers. This has effectively mixed almost 100% of the 1k
feet winds to the surface resulting in advisories being posted. Winds
should weaken at 1k feet and at the surface today as high pressure builds
into the region. Another Arctic blast comes in for Thursday. Winds behind
this cold front are expected to be around 30 knots. We may see some
gusts well into gale force Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.
Frequent gusts to gale force may require a Gale Warning by Thursday
evening. Too soon to hoist any warnings or watches at this point.
Winds weaken a bit behind the front on Friday due to stability over the
marine areas but are back up again Friday night into Sat morning. The
week will remain cold and unsettled for the most part.
Quoting Patrap:
Since we have a "bye" weekend here,were gonna take the sprinkler and make a Hockey Rink and play a few games,..eh?


WU hockey outing
Quoting LongStrangeTrip:
Good afternoon, all!

Downright balmy in Fort Worth, at least compared to what's in store later this week.


WOO, HOO!! We're have a relative heat wave compared to other parts of the Deep South. It was a balmy, 22F at the DFW AP, 24F at my house in Arlington, TX. At noon it's a "mild" 41F here in Arlington, TX, headed for 45F. Enjoying the calm before the "Deep Freeze"!

I betcha DFW drops down near +5 to +12F on Sat morning, near -0- along the Red River Valley up by OK.
Quoting Patrap:
Marine... NWS Biloxi

a strong Arctic air surge has moved over the Gulf waters causing
high del-T numbers. This has effectively mixed almost 100% of the 1k
feet winds to the surface resulting in advisories being posted. Winds
should weaken at 1k feet and at the surface today as high pressure builds
into the region. Another Arctic blast comes in for Thursday. Winds behind
this cold front are expected to be around 30 knots. We may see some
gusts well into gale force Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.
Frequent gusts to gale force may require a Gale Warning by Thursday
evening. Too soon to hoist any warnings or watches at this point.
Winds weaken a bit behind the front on Friday due to stability over the
marine areas but are back up again Friday night into Sat morning. The
week will remain cold and unsettled for the most part.


Its looking slightly less likely for snow/sleet in the New Olreans metro...hopefully chances will come back
Quoting tornadodude:


WU hockey outing


Hey T Dude! I notice your "monkey friend" is a Saints Fan :0)
T Dude, I believe I am the polar bear on the right! The GFS 12Z shows a possible pattern change for the middle of next week, hopefully you'll all receive somw snow and rain in the Upper Midwest and Midwest next week :0)
Well I am going to take a cigarette smoke break here in Arlington, TX, stand on the south side of the house, in the Sun and "make believe" it's 72F outside :0)!
Quoting Bordonaro:
T Dude, I believe I am the polar bear on the right! The GFS 12Z shows a possible pattern change for the middle of next week, hopefully you'll all receive somw snow and rain in the Upper Midwest and Midwest next week :0)


haha nice! well it looks like im getting 3-5 inches of snow on thursday :D
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Oh, Lord, that would be a first...me rooting for a Texas team...what the hell, anything for the couch...

go Longhorns...

Terps rule...since Deadskins, Wizards blankety-blank censored-dem's-banning-words.

Ice hockey, anyone? There's always at least hope with the Caps...


I'm from St Louis, hon...Blues :(
Quoting Floodman:


We have TWO comfy sofas...as for the cold, I agree; it's wasted on you...your birthday should be sunny and high 70s low 80s...I put in the order, you know; it nust have gotten screwed up in shipping.

Hi, Awake! LST is correct: there is room on our sofas for Edie LOL


Thanks, honey! Yes, mid-70s would be perfect! You get "E" for effort, tho.
Quoting LongStrangeTrip:


Thanks, honey! Yes, mid-70s would be perfect! You get "E" for effort, tho.


I tried...LOL
In the 89 freeze and Snow we heard we werent gonna get much then it boomed out in the GOM came ashore in Se La an the backside was rain,sleet snow..sleet...freeze.

Was awful..Got down to 11-13f

Ughhh.

This one has a day before she being's to evolve.


Itsa cold day throughout. Dixie today.







Itsa a cold day th

Quoting Bordonaro:


WOO, HOO!! We're have a relative heat wave compared to other parts of the Deep South. It was a balmy, 22F at the DFW AP, 24F at my house in Arlington, TX. At noon it's a "mild" 41F here in Arlington, TX, headed for 45F. Enjoying the calm before the "Deep Freeze"!

I betcha DFW drops down near +5 to +12F on Sat morning, near -0- along the Red River Valley up by OK.


BRRRRRR...I don't even want to think about that! The cold will make my bones creak, and I'll have one more reminder of the big milestone I'm about to hit...
I don't think I've mentioned my view on this here before...but...I think snow is of the Devil....
This is for everyone talking about the cold this week. The biggest concern will be next week with a major severe weather event. Get Ready Florida because all hell will break lose late next week. Link below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_264.shtml
Quoting Bordonaro:
Well I am going to take a cigarette smoke break here in Arlington, TX, stand on the south side of the house, in the Sun and "make believe" it's 72F outside :0)!

Bordo...ahhhh...an American Spirit smoke and 72 degrees...what a great dream...please do NOT pinch me and wake me up 'til late Spring.

Thnx. for going to Portlight blog :(

NO Midwest flooding, T-Dude, okay? TIA!

Quoting presslord:
I don't think I've mentioned my view on this here before...but...I think snow is of the Devil....


Oh, press...I'm SO down with that! I used to envy people who lived in places with "real" winters...but I was young, and didn't know anything, then.
A warm and very stormy pattern will take shape next week across the deep south.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Bordo...ahhhh...an American Spirit smoke and 72 degrees...what a great dream...please do NOT pinch me and wake me up 'til late Spring.

Thnx. for going to Portlight blog :(

NO Midwest flooding, T-Dude, okay? TIA!



Ah yes, it FELT like 72F in the Sun, ha, ha, ha. Me, a Marlboro Medium, my t-shirt, Dallas Cowboys Themal, my hoodie and Jade, the 10 month old dog, part Lab, part Pit-Bull, who eats door jams and door knobs if she's left alone outside. While my daughters and grand daughters go shopping!

It'll be my turn to take the car, get out to the dreaded "W" for some shopping. Gotta replace the insulation strip on the living room french doors that the dog ate, to keep that North wind draft outta the house. Just can't wait to get my electric bill, about $180, compliments of cold, Arctic air.
71 °F Clear

and rising.....

;)
Quoting Jeff9641:
This is for everyone talking about the cold this week. The biggest concern will be next week with a major severe weather event. Get Ready Florida because all hell will break lose late next week. Link below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_264.shtml


Here's the link below, watch out next week SE US:

Link
Quoting NRAamy:
71 °F Clear

and rising.....

;)


Next week it will be 55F and raining cats, dogs, chickens, frogs, lil fish...
Quoting Bordonaro:


Ah yes, it FELT like 72F in the Sun, ha, ha, ha. Me, a Marlboro Medium, my t-shirt, Dallas Cowboys Themal, my hoodie and Jade, the 10 month old dog, part Lab, part Pit-Bull, who eats door jams and door knobs if she's left alone outside. While my daughters and grand daughters go shopping!

It'll be my turn to take the car, get out to the dreaded "W" for some shopping. Gotta replace the insulation strip on the living room french doors that the dog ate, to keep that North wind draft outta the house. Just can't wait to get my electric bill, about $180, compliments of cold, Arctic air.


You guys are killing me; the doc said that if I wanted my fusion to take, no smokie-smokie...been pretty okay with it but talking about it, watching people do it on TV...you know...makes me wanna go out and grab a pack of Kool Milds and go at it
Next week it will be 55F and raining cats, dogs, chickens, frogs, lil fish...

"it never rains in Southern Calif...."
Quoting NRAamy:
Next week it will be 55F and raining cats, dogs, chickens, frogs, lil fish...

"it never rains in Southern Calif...."


That's what you, think! Listen to the song :0)

Jerry!!! NO smokie smokie!!!!!!
Quoting Floodman:


You guys are killing me; the doc said that if I wanted my fusion to take, no smokie-smokie...been pretty okay with it but talking about it, watching people do it on TV...you know...makes me wanna go out and grab a pack of Kool Milds and go at it


NO, please do not smoke!! I quit for 13 yrs and I was a fool, started smoking again in 2005. At least you can get out, take a deep greath without hacking and enjoy the crip, cool, clean air!!
yeah, I know..."it pours"....

but I live here...and it NEVER rains!

( well...not much anyways...not enough to write home about...)

hence the drought....and water saving laws....
Quoting NRAamy:
71 °F Clear

and rising.....

;)


Oh, niiiice...the Purple Hippo is a sadist!! ;)
Awake in Maryland, why the sad, smiley face??

Thnx. for going to Portlight blog :(

Be happy, Snoopy happy!!

Presslord has it right...snow, ice, sleet, bitter cold...that's the devil's work for sure.
Pensacola is too cold.
Brrrrrrrrrrr
NEW BLOG
713
fxus62 ktae 051852
afdtae


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
152 PM EST Tuesday Jan 5 2010


..cold weather to continue through the weekend...


Short term (tonight through Thursday night)...large scale pattern
remains relatively unchanged today with deep trough over the east
and ridge over the west. The pattern continues to be locked in
place by the downstream negative nao. Surface high will slide closer
to the area tonight with lighter winds expected. This should
result in better radiational cooling tonight...although winds are
not expected to completely decouple. Temperatures should drop a few
degrees lower than last night with upper teens to around 20
degrees being forecast. Temperatures will slowly...repeat
slowly...moderate throught Thursday. Maximum temperatures to reach middle and
upper 40s Wednesday afternoon before dropping into the lower to
middle 20s by Thursday morning. Thursday morning low are a bit tricky
with the high settling directly over the area. However...expect to
see some high clouds begin to overspread the region Wednesday
night ahead of the next shortwave which should help inhibit
radiational cooling.


Shortwave will drop south into the base of the trough Thursday and
Thursday night...inducing very weak Gulf cyclogenesis along the
cold front. Expect to see scattered showers from Thursday
afternoon to around midnight Thursday night as the front moves
through. At this time...the low levels appear to be too warm to
support any frozen precipitation over the County Warning Area and will forecast all rain.



well not looking good for the gulf coast unless u go up north.. but i say its a tad bit early.. Bob and Pat, what do ya'll think..? u think the models will change even tho we r gettin that artic blast?
A second s/w is forecast to dive south from the central US to the Gulf coast on the backside of this trough this weekend. This could actually bring another round of snow to Houston and for areas along the Gulf Coast, perhaps making it as far north as coastal Georgia or South Carolina. For now this is a very low confidence event, but an active subtropical jet argues more mischief could arise this weekend, and we must keep any eye on things. This is from alan huffman, i respect this guy opinion and all

Im thinking we might be in for a surprise.. :)
New Blog


Holy moly.. thats some low dew points.. lol
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Holy moly.. thats some low dew points.. lol

You realize there is another new blog...your by yourself.....(-:
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

You realize there is another new blog...your by yourself.....(-:

Yepp tryin to keep it alive..

well boys and girls.. g2g.. will be back later.. hope ya'll have a wonderful evening.. I will bbl with more maps, models, and other great stuff.. take care
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:







but to add on to this.. I expect forecast to change b/c sum models have moisture leave noon by friday towards me in the fl panhandle.. but later tonight we should have a better reasoning about it.. well g2g ..
NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG
Quoting Bordonaro:
NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG
Bordonaro, I just wanted to know if you have a new blog. :)