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A normal July in the tropics?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:56 PM GMT on July 10, 2006

A tropical wave about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands has become much less organized since this morning. Strong upper-level winds just to the system's north have disrupted it, and its west-northwestward track should take it deeper into this area of high shear. I don't expect any development from this wave. There is some deep thunderstorm activity to the southwest of this wave, near 9N 52W, that is not undergoing as much shear. However, this area is disorganized, and I don't expect any development here, either.

The other area of interest today and a large area of deep thunderstorms stretching from Puerto Rico to the southeastern Bahama Islands. These showers are associated with a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system that is moving slowing west-northwestward. Any development of this area will be slow, due to wind shear, high surface pressures, and dry air. This disturbance should move over Florida on Wednesday, bringing heavy rain to portions of the state.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 1. Model forecast tracks for the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

A normal July?
Will July 2006 be a normal July for the Atlantic hurricane season? First, we need to look at what constitutes a normal July. As we can see from the Atlantic hurricane frequency graph in Figure 3, July is typically a very quiet month, almost as quiet as June is. It's usually not until the second week of August that hurricane season really starts to heat up. Since the current active Atlantic hurricane period began in 1995, there have been an average of about 1.5 named storms and 0.8 hurricanes per July. It's common to go several years in a row without getting a July tropical storm, as happened in 1999-2001. Last year's five named storms in July--including three hurricanes, two of them major hurricanes--was definitely an extremely unusual year. By this time last year, we were already on our fourth named storm, and Category 4 Hurricane Dennis was churning its way through the Caribbean.


Figure 3. The curve of historical normal hurricane activity of the Atlantic Ocean.

Why is July usually so quiet?
Sea Surface Temperatures right now (Figure 4) are warm enough to support tropical storm formation throughout the Gulf of Mexico, Bahamas, and the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic (the MDR is the region between 10N and 20N, and includes the Caribbean Sea). The only part of the MDR still too cool to support tropical storms is the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa. SSTs generally do not get warm enough to support the classic intense "Cape Varde" hurricanes that form off the coast of Africa until mid-August in this region. Thus, we should not expect any Cape Verdes type hurricanes until August.


Figure 4. Atlantic SSTs for July 4, 2006. Blue colors represent SSTs colder than 26 C (80 F), which are too cool to support tropical storm formation.

Since SSTs are not the limiting factor, our old friend wind shear must be the answer! Let's look at wind shear in the eastern Caribbean, where both Hurricane Dennis and Hurricane Emily intensified into major hurricanes last year. As we can see from Figure 5, wind shear was very low in this region in 2005, and has been near normal or even above normal in 2006. Wind shear is expected to remain near average or above average across the the entire tropical Atlantic for the remainder of this week. While it is possible a tropical storm could form in a "hole" in the wind shear, the chances of it being able to stay together for an extended period and grow into a hurricane are low. So, it appears that the first half of July is shaping up to be a very normal one in the tropics.

What about the last half of July?
The two-week forecast from the GFS computer model has been consistently predicting a steady reduction in the amount of wind shear over the tropical Atlantic for the week of July 15 - July 23. Thus, many more "holes" in the wind shear will be opening up, potentially allowing tropical storms to form. I'll stick with my prediction I made at the end of June that we'll see one or two named storms in July, one of which may be a hurricane (but not a major hurricane). The forecast pressure pattern for the rest of July continues to show a weakness in the Bermuda High near the U.S. East Coast. This favors an above-normal chance of strikes on the U.S. East Coast, and a below-normal chance for the Gulf Coast, for storms forming in the Caribbean or near the Bahama Islands.


Figure 5. Wind shear over the Eastern Caribbean in 2005 (red line) and 2006 (blue line) compared to normal (black line). Wind shear is computed as the difference in wind between the upper atmosphere (200 mb pressure, about 40,000 feet high) and lower atmosphere (850 mb pressure, about 5,000 feet high). Image credit: CIRA

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The pacific looks very active....a possible TD forming near mexico.
Evening all. Looks like it was an interesting in here today. Glad to see some fo the locals dropping by :)

Anywho, It looks like the convection is starting to fire around 96L again. It looks to me like the lack of convection due to dry air, or cooler SSTs is what has prevented 96L from developing. I am having a hard time seeing any shear that has been tearing it apart. Maybe someone could explain if there is shear with 96L currently and why it is harder to see then I am use to.

That being said, 96L will be a CAT 5 in three hours.
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Just kidding ya'll :) 96L will be lucky to make depression in the next two days.

StormJunkie.com for all of your model, imagery, marine data, and other weather info needs. There is also some nice storm video there.

SJ
Tropical Storm Bilis has a huge circulation its going to rapidly strengthen.

Its now at 45kts...

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0604 BILIS (0604)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 17.5N 129.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT

30KT 260NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 20.8N 126.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
45HF 121800UTC 22.7N 124.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
69HF 131800UTC 24.6N 119.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT =
hurricane23...has the bill been pass....because i will be posting a blog on thursday on the same very issue...AccuWeather Vs The National Weather Service Part 2
just came back from a dog break. K9 - don't let him get to you. Just report anyone who harrasses as spam and admin will take care of it. Too many of us here for one person to spoil it all.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!not yet. In my opinion it wont get passed.
jp. which petition is this? Last year there was one however this one may be diff.
Posted By: aquak9 at 10:18 PM GMT on July 10, 2006.
Good evening everyone and greetings from northeast florida.

It's such a pleasure to read the Good Dr.'s blog, and see everyone getting along, and just having nice weather chit-chat.

Or...did I miss anything?


I think you may have missed the early part of the day aquak.
23, I agree, from what I remember from last year there was very little support. Actually NOAA got MORE funding for NHC after all was said and done
Well, I was simply trying to wish everyone a pleasant evening.

I guess FZ has left the building.

Thanks, folks.
ok 23,
Posted By: hurricane23 at 11:06 PM GMT on July 10, 2006.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!not yet. In my opinion it wont get passed.


It better not get passed or I will go postal.

SJ
The shear forecast shows little shear in the bahamas for the next 72 hours?? http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
Storm I think the dry air that you are seeing Might be the Saharan dust that Dr.Master's posted a couple days ago. And that is what it looks like on the Satellite.
SJ- I should have said. sorry
Getting hammered right now!

Link my bad there goes the shear forecast
I didn't see it. do you have a link?
Here are 2 animated loop of Tropical Storm Bilis...
I knew who you were reffereing to since the infamous ST is not arround Rays :)

Yes, I agree the dust has a lot to do with the dry air, I just wanted to clarify, with all the talk of shear, that is not what is working against 96L. The cooler SSTs over the Cent Atl are not helping.

SJ
hey stormjunkie..and hurricane23...you guys will have a chance tomorrow....since i will post a blog entry tommorrow to get your opinions and that bill.
Done JP. Thank You.
Here another link guys weather456....
That has to be a joke, right?
wow...that bill sounds like it would suck
hey if you haven't already please check out my blog and let me know what you think:)
Nope not a joke.Wish it was.
where is the petition?
96L is looking sick to me...looks to be becoming more stretched out
Hey all! everyone here in eastern dade and broward counties can expect wind gust to 40 mph! so watch out...... the storms are approaching my area so i will keep u guys updated on my condition
ok 'll post the blog tonight.......tell me what you all think about this bill
AccuWeather Vs The NWS: Part 2
AccuWeather has been a vocal critic of the National Weather Service, a part of the U.S. government's NOAA, in that it provides free weather forecasting services to the general public. They argue that the government competes with them directly and unfairly, and on April 14, 2005 senator Rick Santorum introduced the "National Weather Services Duties Act of 2005" to the U.S. Senate that would prohibit the NWS from providing products or services the private sector is willing and able to provide (S. 786). The bill is currently pending.
Question: Does AccuWeather have a valid point and should the bill be pass by the US Senate?


Figure 1: My Logo of the debate between AccuWeather and the NWS

My Questions:
You can still make or update your July predictions and the question on Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Vs Global Warming on Hurricane Activity is still open. Also open is the question on Why was the 2005 Season more destructive that the 2004 Season even though they both had about the same number of storms making landfall. I need some more information on the two latest question to make a comprehensive conclusion/summary so you can post what ever you know.
the storms somewhat weakned but it still looks like its gonna pour
I think the bill will not get passed.
The bahama tihng looks pretty good on satellite imagery
AccuWeather Vs The NWS: Part 2
AccuWeather has been a vocal critic of the National Weather Service, a part of the U.S. government's NOAA, in that it provides free weather forecasting services to the general public. They argue that the government competes with them directly and unfairly, and on April 14, 2005 senator Rick Santorum introduced the "National Weather Services Duties Act of 2005" to the U.S. Senate that would prohibit the NWS from providing products or services the private sector is willing and able to provide (S. 786). The bill is currently pending.
Question: Does AccuWeather have a valid point and should the bill be pass by the US Senate?


Figure 1: My Logo of the debate between AccuWeather and the NWS

My Questions:
You can still make or update your July predictions and the question on Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Vs Global Warming on Hurricane Activity is still open. Also open is the question on Why was the 2005 Season more destructive that the 2004 Season even though they both had about the same number of storms making landfall. I need some more information on the two latest question to make a comprehensive conclusion/summary so you can post what ever you know.

you can leave comments at my blog.
There is talk of a low level investigation tomorrow by recon. As for the bahamas thing, I am going on vacation in less than a week. I rather not spend it in a shelter, or working in a shelter.

Any thoughts on the possible development of this system?
I'll comment on this blog. If you toss out a levee break that shouldn't have happened , 2004 was worse!
Hi All -


Still trying to figure out how this works, didn't mean to start a whole blog just for a comment. Anyway, long time listener, first time caller. Mind if I join the community?
Welcome highndry, I'm fairly new too.
agreed ut needs to sit over warm water for a while to develop.... if it stays over water for at least three days i think it could turn into a tropical depression....shear is forecast to be low according to the forecast but I don't kno why the nhc is expecting the Bahama Wave to weaken?? also there is warm waters. As for the wave approaching the lesser Antilles accuweather is saying it will enter more a low ind shear area... I am really confused but anyway here are the links.... this is the accuweather discussion link:Link.....and here is the wind shear forecast link: Link
Welcome, where you at that it's highndry ?
Welocme Highanddry. Just sit right down.
I just left bamaweather's blog. Some of his comments raised a question. If you are in a position of authority and are faced with a storm that may strike your city (Mobile), do you automatically order mandatory evacuations?
N.O. dosent count in this discussion as flooding of densely populated areas isnt an issue.
Here is the link for the petition.

http://www.catadjuster.org/forum/m_22582/mpage_1/key_/tm.htm#22582
Very new to this I have 2 questions. What will happen when ULL west of FL and ULL east of fl come together?....also any know if pressure is droping in these areas at all or areas comeing up?? thanx
thanks Baybuddy.

Might I opine that WRT the Bahama blob and the clouds out in the boonies I doubt either is going to amount to much of anything. I'm sure this time next month we'll all be knee-deep in storm coverage, but right now there's just too much shear in the atmosphere to cause either of these things to develop. We need to keep in mind that the second and third most destructive hurricane seasons ever recorded didn't get cranked up 'till mid-August. We're only six weeks in at this point, so writing this season off now is like writing the story on the way to the ballpark.
Welcome HD.

I doubt many people will here will sign that petition since they are all in love with Bastardi!..LOL I dont need to subscribe to Accuweather I get to see their crap on here for free everyday!..LOL
chefjeff:

Colorado - not too many hurricanes in this neck of the woods. Been fascinated by them all my life tho.
Pressure are not dropping. 9 out of 10 times and ULL will not become a tropical system.
thanks SJ - bookmarked your site. It's pretty cool.
I was stationed in The Springs HD, Ilove Colorado.
Baybuddy -


love it here. I just moved back. I used to be in Menlo Park, CA (loved that place too) but I got a job offer I couldn't refuse.
566. PBG00
Hey everyone...Welcome highndry(at least someone is!)
I really like to watch them to. the only problem is they have been coming through my yard the past two years.
thanks PBG00. It wasn't over the weekend, we had some weird freak storm - but it's going to be a hot week ahead!
We had arctic weather training in Leadville...COLD!!
Brrr... Yep, that'd train you for the arctic.
571. PBG00
I love to watch these things develope..but like chef they have been comin here way too often!
there's some "stuff" trying to cross over the bay from tampa ...sky looks really wicked over here.
okay Gang:



Gotta run, the missus has dinner getting cold. Take care all. Been nice chatting with you - I'll check back in tomorrow.
Stormy2day, "wicked" I like that ! Just looked at radar, Looks like it'll be a quickie.
575. PBG00
G'night!
576. PBG00
Stormy..are you near Indian Rocks beach?
Hey weather friends, was screwing around when I got home, and came up with this idea, about getting the national radar mosaic loop as my desktop back ground, the results even amazed me, you have to try this! 

Go to desktop, right click on empty space.and at the bottom of the menu, click on properties.

On the display properties menu click on the desktop tab, then click on the customize desktop button

On the desktop items menu, click on the web tab, click the new button

For the location put the following web address:
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php this is the full national mosaic (full resolution)

at this point, the image should automatically synchronize, but if not, manually click on the synchronize button

click apply, ok and exit

then a box should appear on your desktop, open the box by placing your cursor on the edges and stretching it out to your full desktop size.

Then you have the full resolution mosaic as your active desktop, and click on any point on the map, and it automatically opens a browser window with that specific loop.

All your desktop items are visible on top of the mosaic try it, its awesome! LOL

An active weather desktop! :D

Obviously, you can put whatever image you want in place of the mosaic, and I have only tested this on winxp pro, although any version of windows with active desktop should work similarly.

Let me know if you tried this and if you thought it was as cool as I did! ;)

Thelmores (mickey)
PBG - I'm in Gulfport - down by the Pinellas Point - hop, skip and jump from the skyway bridge. It must be breaking up over the bay - skies look bad but it doesn't seems to be getting pushed away just south...
579. PBG00
We just came back from clearwater..the kids love the skyway bridge! I love it over there
wow - the lightening is unbelievable! 20+ years living here and the lightening still amazes and scares the crap out of me.
Stormy, You bet it does, Quick Flash and BOOOOOOM. When you least expect it.
That is awsome thel! Have not even tried it yet. On it now.
the skyway bridge is pretty amazing - I can see how a kid would love it. the previous skyway bridge (before the accident in 1980) was really something - the span was grated so you would be suspended that high AND driving over grates.
chef, i'm amazed when i see that someone has taken pictures of the lightening ...that means they were outside with the lightening! uh-uh, no way, not me.
I you look ahead of the wave NW of Puerto Rico, there is a big spin. If the spin catches some thunderstorm activity couldnt it become tropical?
Hey everyone! I updated my blog so please take a look ..thx
Stormy, You've been here longer than you're admitting to. You even got to see the John McKay Bucs.
Good evening all! Just wanted to sincerely apologize for a misunderstanding from earlier. I posted a negative reply to aquak9 but it was meant tongue-in-cheek

Aquak9: Good evening everyone and greetings from northeast florida.

It's such a pleasure to read the Good Dr.'s blog, and see everyone getting along, and just having nice weather chit-chat.

Or...did I miss anything?

My response: Aquak, you know NOTHING about weather... you area disgrace to your unit soldier...

oh sorry, everyone IS getting along today. I too shall be civil.

Bring on da shear, baby! I wanna sell my house before the floods come.

I really did mean it as a joke referencing the snippy tudes that people occasionally have on this blog, but in rereading it I can see that my intended humor wasnt so obvious after all. I really am sorry to aquak9 and the others that were offended.
thelm - awesome!! It worked! Oh, good god...something else to enhance my addiction!
Thank You for clearing that up flood.
LOL chef ...I always say "20+" years.

and yes ...McKay Bucs - I still wear my orange with pride!
I don't know if I'm staying long tonight, but I'm home.


Maybe 96 is trying to get some convection back
whatever it was that tried to cross the bay met up with the gulfport invisible force field and was pushed just south and gone ...

terrible tease to the palms to get all that lightening and no rain...
glad i could help out with the "active weather desktop"

still trying to decide exactly what "image" i want to use. the great thing, everytime you try a different image/loop, it saves that location, so i guess i'll be changing till i get bored with it! LOL
Argh, Satanuweather at it again =/
Guys,
I'm interested in your thoughts on the UL "spinner" just northwest of Cuba. This is new (to me), and is interesting. The sheer in the area is still high, but forecast to reduce (GFS) over the next 48 hours. The SST's are living large. Looks like a ULL I know, but I'm always interested when anything spinning gets into the gulf!

Alright, I'm going to wave goodby for the night, and wait for the waves to come in.
ROFLMAO

The day shift was funny today. Too bad I missed Lucy Liu.

For those who want to see some spin, I direct your attention to the east Pacific. Imagine you are on a boat somewhere out there, bobbing and weaving through the waves. Feel the blob, be the blob.
bappit,
looking at that brings the famous line from Jaws to my mind, "i think we need a bigger boat"
can somebody tell castro to fix his radar loops, they are all 3 days old! LOL
Thelmores!

Very Cool!
I was sternly scolded about the Lucy Liu pic. I don't know if it was Lucy Liu herself, or the fact that one got a PG or PG-13 look at cleavage. But no more Lucy Liu. I'm not even going to test the system with tasteful pix of Jessica Alba.


From now on, I will only use my Hotlink powers for good, not evil.
Ok, the laptop is about to die, and I left the power cord at work (doh). If anyone has some thoughts on the ULL NW of Cuba, I'll use this as my bookmark. Thanks in advance for your thoughts.
I tried to sign the potision but it wouldn't let me cause I'd already signed it...It's the sameone as last year. Latest Major Action: 4/14/2005 Referred to Senate committee. Status: Read twice and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. This was the smoke (huge public outcry) while the Public-Private Partnerships Policy was the real issue (138 comments)& worded to the publics advantage even worse (bye bye univ. info too).

Someone does need to sweep it off the floor & throw it in the trash...


Our Causeway Bridge is 26 miles over Lake Pontchartrain. Its a heck of a ride....
18Z WRF likes the Bahamas blog

I looked at the gfdl model and in about 60 hours it strengthens 96l to a 44 mph storm...also read my blog where i wrote my personal experience with Dennis
we have a causway here in Mobile that 6 miles long and just waiting for a cat3 or higher to give us a direct hit and knock it out.
I MEANT TO WRITE 55 MPH*CORRECTION*
ed, that looks like the structure of a hurricane?
Ed, is that WRF showing that system in the Upper Levels or the Lower Levels? What is the surface pressure according to that model?
WRF never gets below about 1014 mb (lowest closed isobar) with 12.5 to 15 m/s (roughly double that for knots), or barely a tropical storm.
Correct me if I am wrong, but woulden't the ULL in the Gulf kick the ULL in the Atlantic sharply to the NW? Could be shear but looks like that it happening on the Satalite Loops.
HR, where are you getting that GFDL from?

I can only find the 6z from yesterday
ULL in the Gulf is much better defined
Thanks Ed. Just dont want to scare the peeps in Florida:)
I also notice another vorticie to the SE of the ULL in the atlantic, probably similar to what we saw with the Bahama Blob a couple weeks ago.
Link this is were i looks at the models go to sea level pressure 60 hours for the gfdl and then it says take 20% of the windfield and so on
By the way, while the WRF has 1014 mb as the lowest closed isobar, that does not mean that it is the lowest pressure; the minimum pressure is likely to be lower, possible even quite a bit lower (SLP maps do not respresent tropical systems that well because the lowest pressure is usually in a very small area, assuming that it is organized enough).
That is the GFDL from yesterday (June 9, 06z); the fact that a new run has not come out since then suggests that nothing is going to develop.
Do u guys think the Bahama thing will develop?????? also why don't u guyz ever talk on the chat room it is much easier???
oh really i didn't kno that!! Thank u for telling me
OT

Nat'l Geographic channel has a documentary about a FedEx Flt Engineer who is dead-heading, and goes insane and attacks the pilot, co-pilot and flight engineer with an axe.

The crew lives, by putting the plane in violent maneuvers to knock the psycho-killer flt engineer off his feet.



On now.


Good stuff.
Tropical Depression "Zero-three" East Pacific
i have updated my blog, very important info.
Yay A tropical depression in the Pacific and looks like the low is going to be a depression very soon.....also i would like to say that in the tropical outlook when they said what would be the factors preventing development they said high wind shear and nothing about high pressure....so now mayb if the shear dies down we will have a storm on our hands
That ULL is interesting to look at.
Bama I have pics of a houseboat being slammed into the bayway during Katrina on my blog if you are interested.
can anyone post a link of a tutorial on how to read the nam and gfs?? if there is one thank you :)
great pics baybuddy
Hey guys read my blog when u get a chance... i wrote my experience with dennis
I have been expecting the general conditions to improve for several days now, and I am starting to see signs of it. My main guidance for that has been the 200 mb Velocity Potential information available from CPC. It shows the tendency for divergence at the top of the troposphere (the bottom layer of the atmosphere where most weather occurs). Divergence is good for tropical storm development, while the opposite, confluence, is bad. We have been under confluent tendencies for weeks now, but the area of general divergence has slowly been pushing eastward over the Pacific. Finally, it's on the verge of moving over into the Atlantic basin, and there's signs of it showing up in the surface weather. Note on the satellite below that the appears to be signs of tropical cyclone development in the east Pacific now, for the first time in a long time.
Actually, there may be two storms trying to form, one near 12 north, 110 west, and another somewhere around 12 north, 98 west.
things starting to look up for activity in the tropical Atlantic, but we might be another week away from the lid actually boiling off again.

Hey all,

I haven't commented in a while, but have been reading when Igot a chance.

I have been looking at that low hanging to the east of us, and it sure seems like it's headed more north than west in the last 12 hours. I don't know about the developmental possibilities. This low seems much like the one that passed through here last week. . .

We keep getting little spin offs of thunderstorms as tropical waves pass mainly to the south of us, with only the northernmost tips passing through the Bahamas. After that lots of the action has passed on to the S. FL area. For example, I think the blow that capsised some sailboats in the Miami area this afternoon passed through the Nassau area between 8 and 11 a.m. this morning.

That being said, it seems this year's 1st ten days of July have been a lot wetter than usual. Normally it's pretty hot, sunny and dry here (except for the occasional afternoon pop-up shower) until about the 3rd week of the month. This year we've had mostly overcast days (cloudy days with periods of sun)and some rain on 8 of the last 10.
BaHa, that is the ULL that is moving NW and will wash out, if it hasn't already. The wave below will continue to travel to the wnw and cross FL on wedensday
Progressive,
Is that 96L invest getting better organized, could the GFDL be right?
There is a mid level circulation to it's SE and upper level winds as stated in the NHC discussion will remain unfavorable for development.
I was referring to the PR blob

Sporteguy - I woulden't look at the GFDL until something forms. It will build up convection again tonight but should dissipate again tomorrow.
Hey guys just got home....

They came out very late but here is the 00:00z run of the BAM models.

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060711 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060711 0000 060711 1200 060712 0000 060712 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.6N 48.3W 12.4N 50.4W 12.8N 52.2W 13.0N 54.1W
BAMM 11.6N 48.3W 12.6N 50.9W 13.4N 53.1W 14.0N 55.6W
A98E 11.6N 48.3W 12.3N 51.0W 13.1N 53.7W 14.0N 56.0W
LBAR 11.6N 48.3W 12.6N 51.3W 13.5N 54.1W 14.2N 57.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060713 0000 060714 0000 060715 0000 060716 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 55.9W 14.0N 59.8W 15.6N 63.7W 16.5N 66.7W
BAMM 14.6N 58.1W 16.0N 63.5W 18.0N 69.1W 19.3N 74.5W
A98E 14.8N 58.2W 17.2N 62.3W 19.4N 66.1W 21.1N 69.9W
LBAR 14.8N 60.0W 16.5N 65.8W 18.6N 70.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 26KTS 24KTS 22KTS 25KTS
DSHP 26KTS 24KTS 22KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 42.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Evening night owls. Please check out my blog and let me know what you think!! Have a great night. Page me if anything develops!!! LOL!
BaHa, that is the ULL that is moving NW and will wash out, if it hasn't already. The wave below will continue to travel to the wnw and cross FL on wedensday

Yeah, pretty much like last week.

It seems very late in the year for cold fronts and upper level lows to be seriously affecting the FL peninsula and northern Bahamas. This time of year we usually have the tropical wave pattern firmly established by now (some bringing more moisture than others).
True that Progressive, but I have to agree with Baha that there has been a large increase in tropical moisture in the S. FLorida area in the last two weeks, not the usual pop up afternoon showers, I know it is the wet season, but this isn't the typical seabreeze activity you know. I don't know what relation it would have to our tropical season, but I've seen what baha is talking about.
I believe there have been two cold fronts to clear at least the North Florida area this month in July. Tallahassee had a low of 61 F on Sunday morning, very very very unusual for the month of July in Tallahassee. They missed an old record by 1 degree.
On the topic of where Katrina started, it was definitely in Bahamian waters, and if I remember correctly, as a result of the confluence of TD 10 and wave action. What I remember principally about Katrina was its decisiveness. In the morning, it was barely a TD; by about 3 p.m. that afternoon it was passing near Nassau as a strong tropical storm. We were caught competely off guard here by the high winds and lusty tropical downpours. Only that morning we had been experiencing light winds and clear skies . . .

Despite the speed of passage, Nassau still experienced extensive flooding as a result. We were fortunate that The Bahamas was the starting point and the the ending point.
We are on the wetside of the ULL thats in the gulf of mexico right now its bringing up moisture from the south into southflorida.

See it here...
No kidding, around 3pm, we had wind gusts up to 70 mph from that, that was quite a little storm, but wilma made us forget all of that
Hey Boca,

Do u live in the boca raton area? I spend a weekend there last month. Seems like a cool place, but potentially prone to flooding.
i stay in miami close to the grove.anyone on here close to that area?
Whoo boy, are u right about wilma! I spent an afternoon driving through the deerfield beach area and was amazed at how many businesses were still closed or in various stages of renovation from Wilma's strike last year.
Yeah man, its cool, I'm in school here at FAU, I've loved the weather since I was little, its secret hobby of mine haha. No but anywhere in South FLorida can get it (flooding) when a heavy thunderstorm hits. Its been killing me because I've been doing outside work and it has been raining about everyday.
Its raining right now like crazy here...
There are people all up and down the coast on here, from JAX, to, if I remember correctly, the Keys. Quite a few people in the Miami-Dade-Broward area . . .
"Lusty tropical downpours"... paints tropical cyclones in a whole new light, Baha! Just kidding! I just love the wording:)
thanks bahahurican....I was just curious.
Deerfield Beach, Boca, Pompano, Tamarac, Weston, Margate, North Lauderdale, Lighthouse Point were the hardest hit areas from Wilma becuase the SE side of it hit us. That was the little stretch of area that had the sustained cat 2 winds and cat 3 gusts. Everybody was hit hard, but we got the little area that was the dirtiest part of it. Note: Pompano Beach and Boca Raton anenometers stopped functioning almost thirty minutes before the actual eye passed over us and still Pompano recorded a gust at 98 mph
"Lusty tropical downpours"... paints tropical cyclones in a whole new light, Baha! Just kidding! I just love the wording:)

Yeah, these guys and gals are just the type to get people all wet . . .
U are right, boca. I recall seeing pics of limos overturned and stuff like that from the Lighthouse Beach area. The visit to Deerfield reminded me of how powerful hurricanes can be and how lingering the effects are in the worst hit areas . . .
Yeah, what the hell are these "lusty tropical downpours" for????????? hahaha
Did you see right by the Hillsboro canal (Deerfield Beach) all those boats that were crushed in that boatyard? That was a real shame, some of those boats are still there.
Hi again....It looks like the ull by bahamas is turning N why is this?
just asking if its moving N or not? and why?
IMO it's been going more north than west since this afternoon. Is that because there is a trough across central FL? I don't know how far north it will go, though it seems to be paralleling the Bahamas and FL coast rather than heading across.
cool thx :)
Stormtop.

We didn't say anything about it forming anything other than what it already is. We are speculating on DIRECTION of movement.

Considering the drought in central / North FL, it would be to the advantage of people there to get some of whatever precipitation is associated with this ULL. Meanwhile, I think S. FLoridians would be willing to take a pass on this one . . .
Anyhoo, folks,

I'm off to bed. More speculation, cogitation, and prediction tomorrow . . .

Sleep tight!
That's pretty bold. By chance do you have any reasoning to that or just the fact that we haven't had much development yet? If your looking to get a reaction out of people.. your probably going to get it.
676. cjnew
Thanks for the Update ST!!!

DO you always switch from first to third person?

or.....
Nah! :)
G,nite~~~~
stormtop chill dude its ight
stormtop keep it gangsta but dont trip
681. cjnew
OH! thats the wrong ST!
or is the right?? its got the zero
682. cjnew
Wrong ST...???
0000

I cant remember anything
Hi StormTop, were all gonna die from global warming. Thanks for the great forecast :) Night StormTop


BTW, how are the TSC levels out there?
684. Inyo
I was just looking today at this week's ENSO report and noticed a strong warming of waters off the west coast of Mexico to well above average. Sure enough, tonight the E-pac is firing up... the depression is only expected to reach tropical storm strength but some models predict another more intense storm to its east soon.

If current trends continue, we may end up with a more active e-pac season than expected. Hopefully this will take away from the atlantic season.
688. IKE
I reported you as being obscene TX. No place for that talk here.

Looking at the NAM and GFS models....

The NAM develops a 1016 mb low east of Florida and rides it up the east coast of Florida...strengthening it slightly to 1012 mb.

The GFS has it crossing Florida and heading into the gulf at 1016 mb...

We desperately need rain here in the Florida panhandle. Crestview has had a...trace of rain for the month...just been too dry here.
IKE....Yes, that whole area needs rain desperately. Sorry to hear that. Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be much relief in the next week. Link
We were in the same shape here until the very end of June.
690. IKE
NAM model/low is being discounted according to the Key West morning discussion.
How cool is it that the TC in the East Pac is named 'Bud'.

'Specially since I'm a fan of the #8 car.
692. IKE
One year ago toady Emily was born. What a difference a year makes.
693. IKE
*today*
AccuWeather Vs The NWS: Part 2
AccuWeather has been a vocal critic of the National Weather Service, a part of the U.S. government's NOAA, in that it provides free weather forecasting services to the general public. They argue that the government competes with them directly and unfairly, and on April 14, 2005 senator Rick Santorum introduced the "National Weather Services Duties Act of 2005" to the U.S. Senate that would prohibit the NWS from providing products or services the private sector is willing and able to provide (S. 786). The bill is currently pending.
Question: Does AccuWeather have a valid point and should the bill be pass by the US Senate?


Figure 1: My Logo of the debate between AccuWeather and the NWS

My Questions:
You can still make or update your July predictions and the question on Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Vs Global Warming on Hurricane Activity is still open. Also open is the question on Why was the 2005 Season more destructive that the 2004 Season even though they both had about the same number of storms making landfall. I need some more information on the two latest question to make a comprehensive conclusion/summary so you can post what ever you know.

you can leave comments ta my blog.
Interesting article in today's NY Times online on rogue waves in the ocean.
the comments are coming in..and so far no one wnats the bill to be pass...you can make a contribution at mt blog.
Good morning everyone. Looks like the shear gods have spoken again. Most definately a different start to this year as opposed to 2005.
I THINK THAT STORMTOPS ONLY FLAW IS TACK AND THAT HE CANT EXPRESS HIMSELF WITHOUT HAVING A CONDESCENDING TONE...

or he just forgot to undo the caps lock and needs to take his high blood pressure pills again...

hey ST, better get that keyboard checked out.... it appears your caps lock is stuck! Or is it meant to be just a childish "rant", thus caps are ok?

seems a nice "flareup" on the 96l wv loop

and, looks like another "blob" in the bahamas! LOL
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A
1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. NEITHER WAVE OR LOW ARES
WELL DEFINED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 49W-51W.

UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 24N85W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE AREA E OF 90W. THE DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO 27N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
23N-27N E OF 87W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC.

A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N67W WITH UPPER RIDGE
COVERING THE ATLC FROM 60W-80W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
28N75W MOVING NORTHWARD. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N
FROM 69W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA IN TO THE SE
GULF AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N75W TO BEYOND 32N72W.

$$
WALLACE

i hope i never see a 100ft rogue wave either! LOL
Here's the link to the discussion (that's a partial post of it). Weather is ominous here this morning.
Skyepony....Yah, you have a couple showers this morning and probably all of south/central FL will get some. Real clear everywhere else right now.
doesnt look like weakening to me
looks like its tightening
ULL off east coast
that 96I flare up looks like a fish. Should we call it the fish blob
stormtop
do you not have better things to do than just sit back and laugh at a bunch of people on a blog?
you need help man
unless its your blog
are you really calling this an ULL now? i was disagreed with yesterday on that terminology
people do have their control issues
some actually think they can control the weather
yea they better loosen up or I'm going to send my lightning bolts and storm clouds to teach them a lesson
NHC is calling it an ULL. Lastnight they called it a cut off low. Yesterday ULL. They always mentioned caught up in that dying trough. Your right a TUTT is nothing more than an ULL caught in a trough. To refure to it as an ULL shouldn't be a big deal since that is how the NHC does. They mention the trough, but they mention every feature out there. I've yet to see them call this a TUTT, thought it is described as such. Using the NHC disscussion's terminalogy as my source, I agree, you were unfairly attacked yesterday.
thanks skyepony
looks like business is picking up on the bahamas radar

gonna be a stormy couple days in south florida it appears........
my concern for the wave near the bahamas has grown a little this morning.currently waiting jb's update on the wave...He seems interested in possible development east of florida.
STORMOP: WHILE I SIT BACK AND LAUGH.

717. IKE
Which way does Bastardi think it would move?

He use to be on Florida Network News, but apparently isn't anymore...miss hearing his opinion.
The terminology is a little ambiguous at times, but a closed upper level low or a low-pressure trough that forms in the easterlies is usually referred to as a TUTT. A "cut-off" low is usually the term used to refer to an upper-level low that forms in the westerlies and then gets "cut-off" from the westerlies as the westerlies shift north or the upper-level low sinks south. The ambiguity is shown by the ULL currently in the eastern Gulf. It was originally formed by at base of the trough being pushed by the prevailing westerlies farther north, but it dropped south and got "cut-off" from the westerlies. Now it is getting embedded in the easterlies as the high builds to the north.

In any event, both the terms "cut-off low" and "TUTT" refer to an upper-level cold core area of low pressure, it is just a matter of the origin of the upper-level low.
LOL red mosquito
if we are such dummies on here why would he waste his time
he would be better off to stand by his fax machine because he must get lots of questions
I could not have said that any better Guygee...
really...pretty wild having those two big eyes looking at us on both sides of FL.....
thanks guy