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A New Tool for Gauging the Odds that a Storm Will Turn Severe

By: Bob Henson 10:30 PM GMT on May 05, 2015

Will that thunderstorm become severe? It’s a question asked countless times each spring across the nation’s severe-weather corridors, not only by the public but also by forecasters in the National Weather Service. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center issues convective outlooks that paint the broad picture of where severe weather is expected each day over the next week. SPC also coordinates with local offices on the placement of severe weather watches. It’s then up to local NWS forecasters to keep track of fast-breaking storm evolution and issue the county-scale warnings that millions of people act on. According to NWS severe storm services leader John Ferree, NWS offices issued more than 22,000 tornado warnings and more than 145,000 severe thunderstorm warnings in the seven-year period from 2008 through 2014.

Here at NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) in Norman, OK, I’m observing the first week of the annual Spring Experiment. The goal is to test promising new technologies that can advance the lead time and accuracy of warnings and “nowcasts.” Researchers from around the country will be filtering in and out of the HWT throughout the Spring Experiment. Each week, several forecasters from local NWS offices, plus one broadcast meteorologist, will also set up shop in Norman. These forecasters are issuing warnings with prototype tools just as if they were on an operational shift, so the pace is fast and intense, but these warnings don’t go out to the public, and the forecasters aren’t being graded on accuracy. Instead, they’re providing a running account of their experience—what worked best, what could be tweaked, and the like—in the form of live blogs with narratives and screenshots. According to experiment coordinator Gabriel Garfield (NWS/Norman), “We want the forecasters to be able to slip out of their comfort zones and think about how they can use probabilities in decision making.”

At the end of each week, the forecasters will summarize their work in a “Tales from the Testbed” webinar for colleagues in Norman and beyond. All this input will help refine the tools being studied, some of which will roll into regular NWS operations over the next few years.


Figure 1. Holly Obermeier (left), a broadcast meteorologist with Omaha’s KETV, confers with Steven Fleegel, a forecaster at the NWS office in Marquette, MI. Image credit: Bob Henson.


ProbSevere: A new window on storm evolution
The Spring Experiment is a sprawling, multifaceted project, as evident from the capsule descriptions on its webpage. Here’s one snapshot of a single tool now in its second year of testing: the ProbSevere model. It gauges the likelihood that a particular storm’s first instance of severe weather will occur during the next 60 minutes. Once a storm is established as severe, public awareness is easier to sustain, but anticipating that first appearance of high wind and/or large hail—before people on the ground know that a storm is severe—is crucial. The goal of ProbSevere is to give forecasters the equivalent of several radar scans of advance notice (about 10 extra minutes, on average) that a storm is approaching severe levels.

ProbSevere is based on a statistical blend of five measures linked to storm intensification:
—Instability (MUCAPE), provided by hourly updates from the Rapid Refresh forecast model
—Vertical wind shear, also provided by Rapid Refresh
—How quickly the top of the storm is rising, as deduced by satellite data
—How quickly ice crystals are forming (glaciation), also derived from satellite
—The diameter of the largest hailstones, as estimated by the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS).

Sometimes the environmental conditions will point toward severe weather before the MRMS values indicate severe hail, or vice versa. Since each storm follows a unique path to severity, ProbSevere relies on an equally weighted blend of the five indices above, rather than a simple “yes/no” verdict from any single index. The result is a single percentage-based probability that an initial severe report will occur in the next hour (see Figure 2). These probabilities can rise dramatically over just a few minutes, so forecasters at the experiment are watching for such trends in ProbSevere to gain more confidence that a severe thunderstorm warning may be justified. Other tools being tested this spring can also help make the call, such as an algorithm that detects a sudden jump in the total amount of lightning being generated by a storm. I’ll cover some more of these tools later in the week. Many are designed to take advantage of data from sensors aboard GOES-R, the first of the next-generation GOES satellites that will be deployed over the next few years. GOES-R is scheduled for launch in spring 2016.

ProbSevere was developed by NOAA and the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. You can check out the model for yourself at the ProbSevere website. The CIMSS Satellite Blog also has a helpful set of posts from the last year demonstrating ProbSevere through several case studies. A frequently updated subset of the daily liveblogs produced by forecasters at the Spring Experiment can be found at the GOES-R Proving Ground (HWT) blog.


Figure 2. At 4:08 pm CDT Monday, the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model assigned an 89% chance that the storm shown here (outlined in magenta) in far northeast Kansas will produce its first instance of severe weather over the next hour. The probability is based on a statistical blend of the five indices shown in the text block next to the storm. These refer to instability, wind shear, hail size, the storm’s vertical growth rate, and glaciation (the pace of ice crystal formation within the thunderstorm). One of the forecast teams issued a non-public experimental severe thunderstorm warning at 4:17 pm CDT. No severe reports had come in by Tuesday morning for the time period of the warning, but in many cases severe weather in sparsely populated areas cannot be confirmed—and of course, even an 89% chance of severe weather means that no severe reports would be expected 11% of the time. Image credit: Kristin Calhoun, National Severe Storms Laboratory.

A week of deluge and severe weather
After years of intense drought, the plains of West Texas are soaking up one of their best episodes of spring rainfall in years. Several rounds of storms overnight produced 24-hour rainfall totals of 3 - 5” from the Lubbock area south toward Midland, and one cooperative observer in the town of Tahoka reported 9.10”. Four of the last six years gave Lubbock less than 13” of rain each, so apart from localized flash flooding, this is a much-appreciated dousing. As energy dives in and out of the upper-level low over the Southwest, the corridor of repeated storm development will shift only very slowly eastward over the next few days. This will keep the tap running from Texas across Oklahoma and Kansas as well as northeast Colorado, where atmospheric moisture is at near-record levels for this time of year.


Figure 3. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center is calling for general rainfall totals on the order of 2 - 5” across much of north Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and northeast Colorado from Tuesday through Sunday. Image credit: NOAA/WPC.

Severe weather is a possibility each day this week, although the extensive rain and clouds will tend to tamp down the available instability. If early-day storms clear out in time, conditions appear ripe for more significant severe weather along a dry line in western Oklahoma and Kansas late Wednesday, perhaps extending into the central Plains on Thursday. A more widespread bout of severe weather is quite possible from Texas to Kansas by Saturday, as the main upper low begins to lift out. The likelihood of tornadoes should rise by that point. However, given that it’s May on the Great Plains—the equivalent of September in hurricane country—a stray tornado is possible on just about any afternoon this week. On Monday night, storm chasers from Australia caught images of a dramatic but nondestructive tornado near Garden City, KS (see Figure 4), and a Tuesday afternoon twister struck several miles southwest of Roswell, NM. However, the most dramatic tornado damage of the last 24 hours occurred in northern Germany, where the town of Bützow experienced significant impacts and a number of injuries.

Watching for subtropical development off the Florida coast
Models continue to indicate that a cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms north of the Bahamas will consolidate into low pressure that may become a subtropical cyclone later this week. See the Jeff Masters post from earlier today for more details. Jeff will have a full update on Wednesday.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. This picturesque tornado was photographed by Clyve Herbert and Jane ONeill (Australian Sky and Weather). A tornadic signature was evident in Doppler wind data (upper left), and a hook appeared in the precipitation data (upper right). Graphic credit: NWS/Dodge City.

Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

From last blog

Well just in case this thing becomes Ana, imma set my predictions at 9/4/2.

2 storms between now and the end of July
5 in August and September
2 in October and November

I would like to get to Joaquin however, maybe 10.. :P
Thanks Mr. Henson, really interesting indeed.
From last blog:

Sun is rising, on what I would say a slow moving bugger (Noul). Yap has been getting hammered with heavy rains since yesterday, as this huge sea turtle swims by. I think they haven't seen sunlight since the day before yesterday, hopefully later on this afternoon, they get there much needed break. Though I think its safe to say the worst has passed seeing from satellite imagery. I wonder what the rainfall totals will be. Anyone has a link to a weather station in Yap? Thanks.



Sounds really cool! Thanks for the update bob!
Quoting 227. Patrap:

The GOP attack on climate change science takes a big step forward

ving down to our worst expectations, the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology voted Thursday to cut deeply into NASA's budget for Earth science, in a clear swipe at the study of climate change.

The committee's markup of the NASA authorization bill for fiscal 2016 and 2017 passed on a party-line vote, Republicans in the majority. The action followed what appears to be a deliberate attempt to keep Democrats out of the loop. According to Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas), the committee's ranking Democrat, her caucus "did not even know [the markup] existed before last Friday. ... After we saw the bill, we understood why."

It's hard to believe that in order to serve an ideological agenda, the majority is willing to slash the science that helps us have a better understanding of our planet.

- Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas)

As outlined by Marcia Smith at SpacePolicyOnline, the measure would cut NASA's Earth science budget to at most $1.45 billion in fiscal 2016, from $1.77 billion currently -- a cut of $323 million, or nearly 20%. Under some circumstances, the budget could shrink even further to $1.2 billion, a cut of nearly one-third. Compared with President Obama's request for fiscal 2016, which is $1.95 billion, the proposal would amount to a cut of at least 26%.

The budget plan perfectly reflects the House GOP's glorification of space exploration, which masks its disdain for research on climate change. Unsurprisingly, it has created consternation among experts. The American Geophysical Union observed just before the vote that NASA's Earth science programs involve more than the study of climate change as such, but "provide a basis for knowledge and understanding of natural hazards, weather forecasting, air quality, and water availability."

The Earth Science division, the organization continued, helped monitor the movement of oil into Gulf of Mexico coastal waters after the 2010 Deepwater Horizon explosion, track severe storms and tornadoes, and assisted with flood predictions and earthquake response.


I try to align my thinking about different stances with how favoring such a stance would benefit their party as a whole and their voters/funding (generally I look at how they would profit from it), but I can't think of a logical explanation that human space exploration aside from energy/resources (Titan, Saturn's largest moon, possibly has fuel resources) could be profitable for GOP supporters aside from lobbyists and politicians who vouch them.
Wonder what their take is on that entity in the SE Pacific earlier this week.
That cant be forgotten.
Possibly the first time in history that's happened.
Quoting 4. TimTheWxMan:

Sounds really cool! Thanks for the update bob!


Btw from the last blog continuing from stormpetrol and you

Well we here in Cayman badly needed the rain
And if the rain was to continue for another week or two it may help this bit of a drought situation we got
Anyway today I run outside and was dancing in the rain because of my excitement
I know it was raining in Cayman last couple of days but I have been away and wasn't able to enjoy it till now
Quoting 5. win1gamegiantsplease:



I try to align my thinking about different stances with how favoring such a stance would benefit their party as a whole and their voters/funding (generally I look at how they would profit from it), but I can't think of a logical explanation that human space exploration aside from energy/resources (Titan, Saturn's largest moon, possibly has fuel resources) could be profitable for GOP supporters aside from lobbyists and politicians who vouch them.


It's a classic case of concentrated benefits/diffuse costs. A few GOP districts benefit heavily from manned space exploration -- in Houston, in Alabama, in Florida, and a few other spots where the rockets and other material are made -- and the staggering costs are borne by the nation as a whole. And there's no cohesive movement against manned space exploration, so nobody's really pushing against it outside of NASA and a few science groups. Who wants the political hassle of coming out against our astronauts? Against sending Americans into space? So you have a motivated group who are very, very interested in keeping the federal dollars coming and very little opposition.
Looks like a witches brew in the NW Caribbean. Will be interesting to see what comes of it.....

Howdy to all of my old friends, good to see all of you once again...... :)

Quoting 238. presslord:



Spoke with Stormjunkie today.....he wants to live stream from s/v Tumbleweed, Too at Ashley Marina...will let ya know when we nail it down...I'll provide booze and food...you're gonna have to bring your own woman...


Booze and food..... who needs women! LOL Send me a PM if you need more company! ;)
Quoting 6. JrWeathermanFL:

Wonder what their take is on that entity in the SE Pacific earlier this week.
That cant be forgotten.
Possibly the first time in history that's happened.


Pablosyn was covering it, some people were shouting !artifact! but there was an ASCAT showing the development. Really odd watching the first cyclone in ~our 'hood' but S. hemisphere going the wrong way :)
i think that the idea of cutting NASA's earth science budget puts the lie to their idea that 'we're not sure what's causing warming'. if these guys were actually skeptical they wouldn't be cutting the budget of a group of scientists trying to figure out what's making the earth warmer and how much. if they were really so confident that it's 'natural' they'd be funding attempts to model and measure the atmosphere to prove it.

they know it's us. they just think dealing with it will cut into their bottom line.

Quoting 5. win1gamegiantsplease:



I try to align my thinking about different stances with how favoring such a stance would benefit their party as a whole and their voters/funding (generally I look at how they would profit from it), but I can't think of a logical explanation that human space exploration aside from energy/resources (Titan, Saturn's largest moon, possibly has fuel resources) could be profitable for GOP supporters aside from lobbyists and politicians who vouch them.
Quoting 1. JrWeathermanFL:

From last blog

Well just in case this thing becomes Ana, imma set my predictions at 9/4/2.

2 storms between now and the end of July
5 in August and September
2 in October and November

I would like to get to Joaquin however, maybe 10.. :P


Joaquin would be nice, we need more storms with names I'll struggle to pronounce/spell correctly. If we reach, um, it, I'd have to give it a nickname like I did last year (my phone would always autocorrect it to a common Spanish surname)...Jo, Joqua, I'll figure it out if we make it that far (I had 11 named systems so maybe).

Quoting 8. MaineGuy:



It's a classic case of concentrated benefits/diffuse costs. A few GOP districts benefit heavily from manned space exploration -- in Houston, in Alabama, in Florida, and a few other spots where the rockets and other material are made -- and the staggering costs are borne by the nation as a whole. And there's no cohesive movement against manned space exploration, so nobody's really pushing against it outside of NASA and a few science groups. Who wants the political hassle of coming out against our astronauts? Against sending Americans into space? So you have a motivated group who are very, very interested in keeping the federal dollars coming and very little opposition.


There's that too. Didn't really think about how those dollars affect the region on a scale like that, and no shortage of GOP support in Texas, (mainly north) Florida, and Alabama (I've never been to Texas or Alabama, Houston and Huntsville would be pretty cool).
While NASA is the topic of discussion, the SpaceX Dragon V2 just had a successful test firing this morning and will commit a pad abort test tomorrow at 7am EDT. The Dragon will ignite its 8 SuperDraco engines for six seconds and coast to an altitude of 1,500 meters before jettisoning the trunk and deploying its parachutes, safely landing in the Atlantic ocean just off the shore of Cape Canaveral. Dragon V2, along with CST-1`00, are the two commercial picks to ferry astronauts to the ISS for NASA, a capability NASA lost at the end of the shuttle program.

Quoting 9. thelmores:

Looks like a witches brew in the NW Caribbean. Will be interesting to see what comes of it.....

Howdy to all of my old friends, good to see all of you once again...... :)



Booze and food..... who needs women! LOL Send me a PM if you need more company! ;)


Three hours down the road from me (if this is Charleston we're talking about), I like it.....but not being with my mother on Mother's Day weekend would be more destructive than any landfalling system we could be seeing.
Quoting 15. win1gamegiantsplease:



Three hours down the road from me (if this is Charleston we're talking about), I like it.....but not being with my mother on Mother's Day weekend would be more destructive than any landfalling system we could be seeing.


win1gamegiants im in wilmington. you near there?
Quoting 7. wunderkidcayman:



Btw from the last blog continuing from stormpetrol and you

Well we here in Cayman badly needed the rain
And if the rain was to continue for another week or two it may help this bit of a drought situation we got
Anyway today I run outside and was dancing in the rain because of my excitement
I know it was raining in Cayman last couple of days but I have been away and wasn't able to enjoy it till now

We really needed rain , everywhere was so dry, I'm happy we 're getting some relief!
Quoting 16. K8eCane:



win1gamegiants im in wilmington. you near there?


Yes, man there's a few of us in the wunderworld it seems. But I would be near High Point this weekend for the occasion. My luck eh? At least I was in Nags Head during Arthur, kind of nervous when the pressure started dropping when it got into the Pamlico Sound but it wasn't too bad at all for most of the northern OBX.
Where the heck is this storm supposed to form at?

5. win1gamegiantsplease
10:47 PM GMT on May 05, 2015

Quoting 227. Patrap:

The GOP attack on climate change science takes a big step forward


Don’t Let Republicans Gut NASA’s Climate Change Research

Link
Quoting 11. wilburo33:

And BTW, you will not need to worry about climate change if ISIS gets a foothold in our country...did you happen to see the two ISIS members who were killed in garland Texas the other day?


All the same I'd rather die in nice cool climate than a oven.
Quoting 6. JrWeathermanFL:

Wonder what their take is on that entity in the SE Pacific earlier this week.
That cant be forgotten.
Possibly the first time in history that's happened.

That storm made crazy huge waves too. Three died and one is still missing. Several hundreds had to leave their homes. I left a video in my blog entry this morning that showed two people in Acapulco that were nearly swept out to sea from a balcony.

Here's another pic from there..
Quoting 20. hurricanewatcher61:

Where the heck is this storm supposed to form at?


Near or at the Bahamas, likely Thur or Friday.
Spoke with Stormjunkie today.....he wants to live stream from s/v Tumbleweed, Too at Ashley Marina...will let ya know when we nail it down...I'll provide booze and food...you're gonna have to bring your own woman...

I would probably have to bring somebody else's woman.
Over a week later and the NWS office in Fort Worth is still trying to confirm the number of tornadoes that occurred south of the metroplex on April 26. We're up to 15; all but 1 were EF0s.

Quoting 22. MahFL:



All the same I'd rather die in nice cool climate than a oven.


I hear the weather in Maine is nice this time of year........
Quoting 20. hurricanewatcher61:

Where the heck is this storm supposed to form at?

12Z run of NASA's GEOS-5 has it forming off East Central Florida tomorrow, then opening again briefly before pulling together more on Thursday off the coast of NFL & South GA.

Got it! Thanks Skyepony.
Quoting 28. Skyepony:


12Z run of NASA's GEOS-5 has it forming off East Central Florida tomorrow, then opening again briefly before pulling together more on Thursday off the coast of NFL & South GA.


24-hour rainfall totals of 3 – 5” from the Lubbock area south toward Midland, and one cooperative observer in the town of Tahoka reported 9.10”.

The jack rabbits carry canteens south of Lubbock. This Tahoka number is around 75 percent of their yearly average. In less than 24 hours.

Big classic dry line storms moving there tonight :

Link

Quoting 3. 882MB: I wonder what the rainfall totals will be. Anyone has a link to a weather station in Yap? Thanks.


see http://www.ogimet.com/ranking.phtml.en
The station's name is Yap Island and the country is Federal State of Micronesia.
" As system nears a tipping point , it moves to it's extremes. From one extreme to the next ."

The drought at Tahoka, and most of Texas , was marked by the most extreme rain events Lubbock ever saw, and then the rain stopped. And this last drought in Texas beat every other drought like a drum.

Now these crazy lazy lows drift into the region , and rains like Oregon in Dec. Hour after hour. The rain in West Texas used to come with big towering clouds . And in 30 mins. it was gone and the sun came out.

Not anymore. But system is going to cure a lot of peoples problems , so I'm not beefing, it's just so usual, and strange.
Yap, FM
Guam International



Hurricane conditions possible.
Wednesday
05/06
86 | 79 °F
Wednesday 100% Precip. / 2.04 in
Windy with thunderstorms. Some locally heavy downpours are possible. High 86F. SSE winds at 35 to 50 mph, decreasing to 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 2 to 3 inches of rain expected.
Wow....Developing (albeit slowly) system close to home, and the blog is dead. Guess everyone is waiting for it to be labeled Invest before showing interest.
Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach
Real-time AMO index from Klotzbach and Gray (2008) lowest April value on record (back to 1950).
The Atlantic is gonna spit out a name before the East Pac.




Quoting 33. ColoradoBob1:

" As system nears a tipping point , it moves to it's extremes. From one extreme to the next ."

The drought at Tahoka, and most of Texas , was marked by the most extreme rain events Lubbock ever saw, and then the rain stopped. And this last drought in Texas beat every other drought like a drum.

Now these crazy lazy lows drift into the region , and rains like Oregon in Dec. Hour after hour. The rain in West Texas used to come with big towering clouds . And in 30 mins. it was gone and the sun came out.

Not anymore. But system is going to cure a lot of peoples problems , so I'm not beefing, it's just so usual, and strange.


Lmao...



Quoting 38. Patrap:

The Atlantic is gonna spit out a name before the East Pac.







It is sure looking that way...
Invest 93W will be a large system in size and a strong Typhoon. I wont say more as I will not adventure too far about intensity and track but the Marianas should watch it very closely.

Quoting 38. Patrap:

The Atlantic is gonna spit out a name before the East Pac.







True. Then, the EPAC will spit out 10 before we hit #2. Lol.
Interesting
92 dint spit one out till Mid August ,

Dat one left a mark though,'


In 2 states.

If we dint get the A storm till mid Aug here in 2015, folks would need a help line number
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NOUL (1506)
9:00 AM JST May 6 2015
==========================
Near Caroline Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Noul (985 hPa) located at 9.2N 137.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 10.6N 134.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 12.2N 130.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 14.1N 126.8E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting 41. Tropicsweatherpr:

Invest 93W will be a large system in size and a strong Typhoon. I wont say more as I will not adventure too far about intensity and track but the Marianas should watch it very closely.




I'm sure my brother in Guam has his eye on that one.
Just put in a 55' Catamaran.
A curve in the isobars SE of FL.

Quoting 45. Patrap:

92 dint spit one out till Mid August ,

Dat one left a mark though,'


In 2 states.

If we dint get the A storm till mid Aug here in 2015, folks would need a help line number


Pat, do you remember.. two years ago you, me and MLC were watching that gulf storm that threw up just
a mess all over the GOM atmosphere and the next minute collapsed/coalesced into that storm? It was a furious
birth, then a calm cyclone that I think went to you.
Quoting 50. redwagon:



Pat, do you remember.. two years ago you, me and MLC were watching that gulf storm that threw up just
a mess all over the GOM atmosphere and the next minute collapsed/coalesced into that storm? It was a furious
birth, then a calm cyclone that I think went to you.


Indeed, though they do kinda run into one another in me brain Housing group at times.

Last week we saw Train rail cars get blown off the Huey P. Long Bridge in Metairie. Dat was different.

The Heartland Inst. is making a major push -

A. The director of science at the Heartland Inst, is a convicted felon.

B. Jay Lehr, Ph.D. at the Heartland.

Is convicted a felon.

Jay Lehr, Ph.D. (jlehr@heartland.org) is science director at The Heartland Institute, an independent nonprofit organization based in Chicago.

Link

He pleaded guilty to defrauding the EPA doing ground water studies.

Jail Sentence Conviction for Defrauding Taxpayers on EPA Contract.

On April 26, 1991, Jay Lehr was charged for falsifying employee time sheets used to bill the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency during his time as president of the National Water Well Association (NWWA), which was contracted by EPA. Lehr served three months of a six month sentence in a West Virginia prison and NWWA was fined over $200,000, leading to Lehr's resignation as president of NWWA.[4].


Link

The director of Science at Heartland is convicted felon.


Please share this. He padding time cards . What a punk.
It will be difficult for this Atlantic low to become Ana. It is heading to the cooler water...
Quoting 51. Patrap:



Indeed, though they do kinda run into one another in me brain Housing group at times.

Last week we saw Trains rail cars get blown off the Huey P. Long Bridge in Metairie. Dat was different.




That indeed is an Iron Horse of a different color! Hoping the cars were empty?

I think we're seeing 90L's upper atmos ruckus just about to shrink into a small low, the models
keep saying Miami cyclogenesis, but look at the bullseye of the 'mess'.
Quoting 35. nash36:

Wow....Developing (albeit slowly) system close to home, and the blog is dead. Guess everyone is waiting for it to be labeled Invest before showing interest.


Hey, Nash. Just not much shakin' yet. Which system catches your eye?









Quoting 51. Patrap:



Indeed, though they do kinda run into one another in me brain Housing group at times.

Last week we saw Train rail cars get blown off the Huey P. Long Bridge in Metairie. Dat was different.




I have never heard of any trains falling off the Huey P. long bridge, was it tornado that did this?

Still getting some thunder and periodic squalls
Quoting 54. redwagon:



That indeed is an Iron Horse of a different color! Hoping the cars were empty?

I think we're seeing 90L's upper atmos ruckus just about to shrink into a small low, the models
keep saying Miami cyclogenesis, but look at the bullseye of the 'mess'.


Mostly furnishings and merchandise thankfully redwagon.

I chimed in to some local Emg Mgrs who were there and quipped, thankfully it wasn't 10 Tanker cars of Chlorine or Vinyl Chloride.
Quoting 55. beell:



Hey, Nash. Just not much shakin' yet. Which system catches your eye?












Hey Beell. I'm curious to see if this mess, assuming it can consolidate into a closed sfc low, will break free of the jet. Until/unless it does, there is not much chance of organization. Also looking at how strong the E coast High is.
Quoting 53. wilburo33:

It will be difficult for this Atlantic low to become Ana. It is heading to the cooler water...


The Gulfstream is not cooler.
Quoting 56. wilburo33:



I have never heard of any trains falling off the Huey P. long bridge, was it tornado that did this?


A Tornado/Funnel,yes as it was a Warned cell.


Here is a video of the Train cars being blown off the Huey P. in Elmwood...last week.

Note the restaurant name too.

"Raising Cane's"






Quoting 60. nash36:



Hey Beell. I'm curious to see if this mess, assuming it can consolidate into a closed sfc low, will break free of the jet. Until/unless it does, there is not much chance of organization. Also looking at how strong the E coast High is.


For true. I don't know if that's an entirely good thing for development.

From tonight's TWD:
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN IS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC
THAT EXTENDS FROM
22N61W TO BEYOND 32N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N76W TO OVER CUBA TO NEAR 22N78W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING
A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF
LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N76W ALONG 25N71W TO 31N64W INCLUDING MOST
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

At some point the eastern fringes of convection could suffer from subsidence under the upper ridge-maybe. Not sure.
Quoting 59. Patrap:

I think Ana will show her face/center at St. Augustine, when she wraps it all in from 850 to 200.
Surprised this was missed by blog members.

18Z GFS

Quoting 63. beell:


For true. I don't know if that's an entirely good thing for development.

From tonight's TWD:
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN IS
AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC
THAT EXTENDS FROM
22N61W TO BEYOND 32N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N76W TO OVER CUBA TO NEAR 22N78W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING
A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF
LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N76W ALONG 25N71W TO 31N64W INCLUDING MOST
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

At some point the eastern fringes of convection could suffer from subsidence under the upper ridge-maybe. Not sure.


18Z GFS had another big shift west in the short term on the 18Z GFS.
Noul and 93W







Noul





93W



A lot of us "members" dont model worship.

Were actually Buddhist.

: P

Look at those winds. Why isn't this 90L yet?
Quoting 69. HurricaneAndre:


Look at those winds. Why isn't this 90L yet?

The NHC doesn't typically designate an invest until there is a surface low. What we have now is a well-defined surface trough. I'd expect a declaration sometime tomorrow.
Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity .5 degree elevation 124-nm

Quoting 62. Patrap:



A Tornado/Funnel,yes as it was a Warned cell.


Here is a video of the Train cars being blown off the Huey P. in Elmwood...last week.

Note the restaurant name too.

"Raising Cane's"









That just reminds me how benign our weather really is here in Central FL virtually 100% of the time. Those in New Orleans could say the same thing I suppose, but they still get way more severe events and high wind events than we do (this is said without even including Katrina).
Quoting 65. StormTrackerScott:

Surprised this was missed by blog members.

18Z GFS




I like this one too!
:)

Quoting 71. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The NHC doesn't typically designate an invest until there is a surface low. What we have now is a well-defined surface trough. I'd expect a declaration sometime tomorrow.


Regardless of designation or not, I've seen better looking surface troughs.
Hey folks happy New Year. Early season low forming will this be a big year for the US coast? Probably the last Low till Aug..........:)
Quoting 75. beell:



Regardless of designation or not, I've seen better looking surface troughs.


Troffie down-caster?
Rain beginning to fill in now.

Quoting 75. beell:



Regardless of designation or not, I've seen better looking surface troughs.


Above all else, I really do not want this to dump 5-6 inches of rain on us if it decides to park over us.
Quoting 78. StormTrackerScott:

Rain beginning to fill in now.




Will the west coast of Florida get any showers from this?
If this can consolidate and start getting it together tomorrow, watches may need to go up tomorrow night or Thurs morning. Big if....
According to Earth Winds, there is a Circulation due east of Southern Miami Dade and west of Andros Island.
Quoting 80. Hurricanes101:


Will the west coast of Florida get any showers from this?


Hard to say as models are still struggling with this system. Orlando east I think gets wet and squally by daybreak with some potentially getting into Tampa. Well see. Tricky forecast.
Quoting 82. FIUStormChaser:

According to Earth Winds, there is a Circulation due east of Southern Miami Dade and west of Andros Island.

That's where I'm looking. That's right where shear is decreasing as well. 40kts of shear this morning has become 20kts now, and falling. That big area of convection north of the Bahamas has a lot of bark, but not much bite. It'll fade out, there won't be a surface development with that. On the other hand, we should start seeing more convection in that area you mentioned, as that is where the surface trough should consolidate into a low. Would fit with the western track idea also.





New warning about climate change linked to peat bogs


A leading Siberian scientist has delivered another stark warning about climate change and said melting peat bogs could speed up the process.

Professor Sergey Kirpotin, director of the BioClimLand Centre of Excellence for Climate Change Research in Tomsk, said he has concerns over the 'awful' consequences in Russia’s sub-Arctic region.

He said that a thaw of the frozen bogs, which take up as much as 80 per cent of the landmass of western Siberia, will release billions of tonnes of methane – a greenhouse gas more potent than carbon dioxide – into the atmosphere. That, he concluded, will greatly speed up the effects of global warming around the world with potentially devastating consequences.


Link
Quoting 86. MAweatherboy1:


That's where I'm looking. That's right where shear is decreasing as well. 40kts of shear this morning has become 20kts now, and falling. That big area of convection north of the Bahamas has a lot of bark, but not much bite. It'll fade out, there won't be a surface development with that. On the other hand, we should start seeing more convection in that area you mentioned, as that is where the surface trough should consolidate into a low. Would fit with the western track idea also.






Going to be interesting watching the genesis of this system from the sidelines in South Florida, interesting that Arthur of last year had the same location of genesis and a track somewhat similar. It will be interesting to see how it hugs the coast, and the effects it will bring overnight specially with the Dmin and Dmax cycle.

South and North Carolina might get an early unpleasant visit before the season even starts.
Quoting 88. FIUStormChaser:



Going to be interesting watching the genesis of this system from the sidelines in South Florida, interesting that Arthur of last year had the same location of genesis and a track somewhat similar. It will be interesting to see how it hugs the coast, and the effects it will bring overnight specially with the Dmin and Dmax cycle.

South and North Carolina might get an early unpleasant visit before the season even starts.


What I am REALLY interested in is seeing if this does indeed become/stay sub-tropical. Normally, those systems are very dry on the western flank, with the majority of the precip on the NE side. That could play a big role in how wet this is for SC/NC.
Quoting 81. nash36:

If this can consolidate and start getting it together tomorrow, watches may need to go up tomorrow night or Thurs morning. Big if....


Evening Nash. Still thinking Wilmington to OBX myself.

00z NAM at 24hrs



00z NAM 60hrs



This track would leave pretty much everything S of Myrtle Beach pretty much weather free over the next few days.
Quoting 90. nash36:



What I am REALLY interested in is seeing if this does indeed become/stay sub-tropical. Normally, those systems are very dry on the western flank, with the majority of the precip on the NE side. That could play a big role in how wet this is for SC/NC.


Needless to say, it will be a interesting to see IF this system does get designated and does track into the SC/NC border area how the effects will be, will it be a conventional system or will one side of the system be more asymmetrically stronger.


I wonder if the Sea Breeze circulation of Florida plays any role in adding or disrupting the genesis and closing off of a circulation directly off its coast.
FIU, my opinion is that it will be a very lopsided system. Almost always what we see with these weaker systems that track close to the coast. The only weather is on the N and NE side. W side stays extremely timid.
CHS NWS...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTH TOWARD SOUTHEAST NC. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME INTO LINE MUCH CLOSER
TO THE 12Z GFS...WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTH TO A
POSITION DUE EAST OF MYRTLE BEACH BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS INLAND AREAS...SUCH A TRACK WOULD MINIMIZE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. WE
ADJUSTED OUR POPS TO SHOW 20-30 PERCENT OVER EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A FARTHER WEST TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY
DICTATE AN INCREASE IN POPS...THOUGH IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY RAIN FREE IF THE SYSTEM STAYS FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE.
Quoting 93. StormJunkie:

FIU, my opinion is that it will be a very lopsided system. Almost always what we see with these weaker systems that track close to the coast. The only weather is on the N and NE side. W side stays extremely timid.


I think the 'center' is currently over Lake O.
Quoting 91. StormJunkie:



Evening Nash. Still thinking Wilmington to OBX myself.

00z NAM at 24hrs



00z NAM 60hrs



This track would leave pretty much everything S of Myrtle Beach pretty much weather free over the next few days.


Looks like that might be the case. They're the magnet. It's very difficult to get a system to make landfall in CHS or coastal GA. It would really have to hug the E coast of FL and move due N for it to come ashore in CHS.
But..... Given the close proximity, watches may still be issued. 50 miles further west changes the entire ballgame. We'll see once we have a defined LLC.
Quoting 97. ColoradoBob1:

Watching all you tease out every wind in Fla, makes me sick. The snakes will eat your cats, SLR will drown your water supply. Your oranges are dieing , This site is some kind of cartoon.


First of all, it's "dying." Furthermore, if this site offends you so, go find a climate change site and have a day.
Quoting 96. nash36:



Looks like that might be the case. They're the magnet. It's very difficult to get a system to make landfall in CHS or coastal GA. It would really have to hug the E coast of FL and move due N for it to come ashore in CHS.


Or get pushed back by the high. Without a system to track, it's difficult to to determine future...but models usually start off with a more southern solution and shift N. Interesting to watch pre-season activity either way.

RedW, it may be over lake O, but honestly I don't think there is really any sort of "center" atm. If the models have it right, it will start to consolidate somewhere near/just N of the Northern Bahamas tomorrow.
Evening all.....
Quoting 17. Patrap:


..... This loop clearly shows the clearing we had this afternoon. The rain was torrential until about 2 p.m. Now it's looking like the a.m will be wet again. NasBahMan mentioned his 4 inches of rain; the results seen all over the island have been extensive flooding in lowlying areas and on the streets.
The April AMO value as calculated by Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Gray was the lowest since record-keeping began in 1950.



If you want to look at the brighter side of things, waters across the East Atlantic have warmed quite a bit over the past two weeks as the positive NAO that annoyed us all winter long has slackened (reducing evaporation cooling from stronger than average low-level trade winds). And as we progress deeper into the year, the AMO should naturally rebound at least some.

That said, the SST chart below doesn't exactly inspire confidence for an average or above-average season...

Quoting 51. Patrap:



Indeed, though they do kinda run into one another in me brain Housing group at times.

Last week we saw Train rail cars get blown off the Huey P. Long Bridge in Metairie. Dat was different.




Wait till chorine gas falls off that .
Quoting 89. hydrus:


COC on port of turtle island. Looked to be due aft of the Keys this early morning. I was making fun at 4:30 A.M., but now I see this as a possible. Front coming when?
Quoting 100. StormJunkie:



Or get pushed back by the high. Without a system to track, it's difficult to to determine future...but models usually start off with a more southern solution and shift N. Interesting to watch pre-season activity either way.

RedW, it may be over lake O, but honestly I don't think there is really any sort of "center" atm. If the models have it right, it will start to consolidate somewhere near/just N of the Northern Bahamas tomorrow.


Agreed, my friend. Let's get a center, get it closed off, and then we're off to the races. Inevitably, it won't amount to much more (regardless of where it makes landfall) than a good soaking with some gusts. Having said that, it's still nice to be back in the season we all came here for many years ago.
Evening Baha, good to see ya.
Quoting 51. Patrap:

Hell comes to breakfast. When chlorine tank cars are blown off one of America's strangest bridges. The empty cars are gone . But chlorine tank cars cross that bridge everyday.
chlorine tank cars

If one ruptures up wind from you, You die in about in about 10 seconds..
Models updating for May on the NMME site seem to suggest we are heading for a 2C El-Nino come end of June into July. Should surpass the 1997 event I suspect.


Philip Klotzbach@philklotzbach · 24h 24 hours ago

2015 has the highest ever Apr value of Nino 4 (records back to 1950). 2015's value is 1.13C, eclipsing old record of 0.79C set in Apr 1997.


Quoting 97. ColoradoBob1:

Watching all you tease out every wind in Fla, makes me sick. The snakes will eat your cats, SLR will drown your water supply. Your oranges are dieing , This site is some kind of cartoon.
Geesh...must of been a bad batch...
Quoting 100. StormJunkie:



Or get pushed back by the high. Without a system to track, it's difficult to to determine future...but models usually start off with a more southern solution and shift N. Interesting to watch pre-season activity either way.

RedW, it may be over lake O, but honestly I don't think there is really any sort of "center" atm. If the models have it right, it will start to consolidate somewhere near/just N of the Northern Bahamas tomorrow.


False RGB is best for picking out low-level circ, imo



Now the low-level is actually North of St. Aug. Moving fast.
Here's the buoy way off Cape Canaveral, FL.. 41010

Pressure is trending down. Winds have been steady ~17kts.

Good placement of the surface low.

Quoting 111. redwagon:



False RGB is best for picking out low-level circ, imo



Now the low-level is actually North of St. Aug. Moving fast.

Not possible considering the winds down south are still ENE in Freeport and NNE in Palm Beach
Quoting 111. redwagon:



False RGB is best for picking out low-level circ, imo
Now the low-level is actually North of St. Aug. Moving fast.


The GFS NowCast sees it here...If it's what you would call a center...I'll go with that. False RGB, IR, none of them are good at picking up a center at night. Pressures don't suggest much at the surface right now, no microwave, no convection. It's just and elongated area of low pressure. Messy.

00z GFS 24hrs

Quoting 97. ColoradoBob1:

Watching all you tease out every wind in Fla, makes me sick. The snakes will eat your cats, SLR will drown your water supply. Your oranges are dieing , This site is some kind of cartoon.
The snakes in Florida will eat full grown black bear, 600 lbs, Anacondas have been released into the southernmost part of Florida as reported way too late by the FWC. Burmese and Rock pythons have been down there for at least three decades. As for the wind, It is blowing, and my friends are busy predicting it's movement. The approaching front is affecting the system. Hydrostatic pressure is under ground. What is water trapped in air? Does it not have a different value? The answer lies in temperature, velocity, and altitude of course. Is water trapped in pressurized air equal the mathematical formula as in a beaker? How much air? Where do we get temperature? The Sun.
Q: Abacosurf:

Sorry, I mean N of Lake O. I expect 'showing' at St. Augustine tomorrow AM. I think another low will
'cash in' concurrently around the Keys to MI.
There over 17,000 gallons in each tank car , what bad day they carry is yet yo come.
GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
May 06, 2015 - 01:45 UTC

Weak but symmetrical low at 54hrs...Looks like we may be getting a little run to run consistency. N Myrtle to Wilmington?

Quoting 113. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good placement of the surface low.




Due east of Miami Beach

Link

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
549 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...WARMEST APRIL ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...RAINFALL WAS WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING APRIL 2015...
No one's talking about severe weather? Well, i guess it's up to me!


Link



No Captain Trough to save you now east coast! It is i, Dr. Bermuda high, along with my sidekick Gulf Loop Von Doom, who will bring all the storms to the east and gulf coasts! Bwahahahahaaaaaa!



Looks like it FIUSC.
Quoting 125. TimTheWxMan:



Looks like it FIUSC.


It's trying to close off east of Fort Lauderdale.
Click pic for NOAA WavewatchIII wave model..

Seeing a lot of lightning out to my east this evening toward Brevard County. Definitely still a cold core system we are dealing with.



00z GFS 72hrs Night all

Quoting 122. FIUStormChaser:



Due east of Miami Beach

Link


Good view, the model time is valid for 2 am.
Quoting 126. StormTrackerScott:



It's trying to close off east of Fort Lauderdale.



Yeah, i can see it now.
Quoting 130. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good view, the model time is valid for 2 am.


Seeing a good light show GT looking east.


117. Pallis1

Your avocados are under attack as well . A little tiny bug carries a fungus. A little tiny bug carried a fungus into the West .

The dead trees there are as large as Montana.

Never forget

A little tiny bug carries a fungus.
I ran the FL lightning summery about an hour ago.. It was a little more cloud to ground than I expected.

Lightning/2000 v6.4.1 Summary (Tuesday, May 05, 2015 at 10:51:40 PM EDT)

Since midnight (1371.7 mins.):
Total strokes: 3786 (avg. 2.8/min.)
Intracloud/Intercloud strokes: 1323 - 34.9% (avg. 1.0/min.)
+IC: 979 - 74.0% (avg. 0.7/min.)
-IC: 344 - 26.0% (avg. 0.3/min.)
Cloud to ground strokes: 2463 - 65.1% (avg. 1.8/min.)
+CG: 719 - 29.2% (avg. 0.5/min.)
-CG: 1744 - 70.8% (avg. 1.3/min.)
Compact Intercloud Discharge: 0

Total flashes: 3584 (avg. 2.6/min.)
Cloud to ground flashes: 2328 - 65.0% (avg. 1.7/min.)
+CG flashes: 698 - 30.0% (avg. 0.5/min.)
-CG flashes: 1630 - 70.0% (avg. 1.2/min.)
Intercloud/Intracloud flashes: 1256 - 35.0% (avg. 0.9/min.)
+IC flashes: 917 - 73.0% (avg. 0.7/min.)
-IC flashes: 339 - 27.0% (avg. 0.2/min.)
Just about all of Brevard County is in the rain now and its spreading toward Seminole and Orange counties.
Q: Scott:

Don't forget competing centers when a big mass is consolidating down. The spin now just N of Lake O
might head off to the Carolinas on the Gulf Stream, while the spin around Miami might go N then
hook back inland at the Panhandle.
Quoting 134. Skyepony:
I ran the FL lightning summery about an hour ago.. It was a little more cloud to ground than I expected.

Lightning/2000 v6.4.1 Summary (Tuesday, May 05, 2015 at 10:51:40 PM EDT)

Since midnight (1371.7 mins.):
Total strokes: 3786 (avg. 2.8/min.)
Intracloud/Intercloud strokes: 1323 - 34.9% (avg. 1.0/min.)
+IC: 979 - 74.0% (avg. 0.7/min.)
-IC: 344 - 26.0% (avg. 0.3/min.)
Cloud to ground strokes: 2463 - 65.1% (avg. 1.8/min.)
+CG: 719 - 29.2% (avg. 0.5/min.)
-CG: 1744 - 70.8% (avg. 1.3/min.)
Compact Intercloud Discharge: 0

Total flashes: 3584 (avg. 2.6/min.)
Cloud to ground flashes: 2328 - 65.0% (avg. 1.7/min.)
+CG flashes: 698 - 30.0% (avg. 0.5/min.)
-CG flashes: 1630 - 70.0% (avg. 1.2/min.)
Intercloud/Intracloud flashes: 1256 - 35.0% (avg. 0.9/min.)
+IC flashes: 917 - 73.0% (avg. 0.7/min.)
-IC flashes: 339 - 27.0% (avg. 0.2/min.)


Good display being put on toward your area.
When sea level rise drowns most of your fresh water , your goofy climate debate about Fla. will end.
Quoting 97. ColoradoBob1:

Watching all you tease out every wind in Fla, makes me sick. The snakes will eat your cats, SLR will drown your water supply. Your oranges are dieing , This site is some kind of cartoon.


NOOOOOO!!!! NOT THE CATS!!!!!
Quoting 135. StormTrackerScott:

Just about all of Brevard County is in the rain now and its spreading toward Seminole and Orange counties.


Footprint delta now; compared to a few hours ago:



Not just one center could whip up all this action. I know this from not getting needed storms
for five years now in Austin :( 'Why that low is NOT coming to you', a book I could write.
Sea level rise is picking up speed,
Glaciers are melting ,

They don't listen to AM Talk Radio.
Quoting 138. ColoradoBob1:

When sea level rise drowns most of your fresh water , your goofy climate debate about Fla. will end.
Cats are generally safe indoors, oranges grow in other places besides Florida, people with sense know whats happening. Improvise, adapt , overcome.. Beaches will practically disappear. The joy and paradise like homes along the coast will be obliterated over time. Its not my imagination. It will happen, and not just Florida will have to deal with eustatic rise. Its occurring now, whether its us pumping toxic garbage in the atmosphere, or a natural phase the Earth goes through, or both, which is most likely. Its speeding up, and melt will increase significantly within the next 15 years..Some simply dont believe anything will happen, because they dont know any better. Only way melt would stop is if something on a global scale , asteroid impact, massive volcanic eruption, nuclear war, massive shift in ocean currents. As of now though, you know melt is happening, and will keep increasing....Keep posting the good stuff Bob..and remember that carbo,s and not 3,s, tens will coral on wire frame and grids are antejentacular and Ultracrepidarian...
Quoting 133. ColoradoBob1:


117. Pallis1

Your avocados are under attack as well . A little tiny bug carries a fungus. A little tiny bug carried a fungus into the West .

The dead trees there are as large as Montana.

Never forget

A little tiny bug carries a fungus.
A little tiny bug carries a fungus.
A little tiny bug carries a fungus. A little tiny bug carries a fungus. A little tiny bug carries a fungus. A little tiny bug carries a fungus. A little tiny bug carries a fungus. A little tiny bug carries a fungus. A little tiny bug carries a fungus....o , by the way.....A little tiny bug carries a fungus.
I chide the navel gazers here. The world is not between Key West , and Orlando.

But fresh cheap water IS your world.

Like Calif.

And those days are gone fore
ever.

143. hydrus

We just lost 12 million trees in 1 year in California . We did that in Texas as well. We lost an entire Juniper forest a decade ago.

One thing to not to follow ls my views on trees.
Surface observations over South Florida and the western Bahamas indicate that an area of low pressure has formed east of Miami.
148. 882MB
Quoting 130. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good view, the model time is valid for 2 am.
More like Ft. Lauderdale!
Quoting 140. aquak9:



NOOOOOO!!!! NOT THE CATS!!!!!


.
151. 882MB
We have N winds over Miami and Fort Lauderdale. Center looks to be over or just offshore Miami Dade and Broward county line. This will most likely be 90L by morning.

Quoting 135. StormTrackerScott:

Just about all of Brevard County is in the rain now and its spreading toward Seminole and Orange counties.

Unfortunately Scott, it is unlikely to make it here, other than just a few isolated sprinkles. Four hours ago, it also looked like the rain bands might move inland. Everything falls apart as it does anyhow. I hope I am wrong.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
Typhoon Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NOUL (1506)
15:00 PM JST May 6 2015
==========================
Near Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Noul (985 hPa) located at 9.5N 136.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 11.0N 133.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 12.5N 129.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 14.6N 125.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) In Sea East Of The Philippines
we now have invest 90L
From Business Insider:

Someone built the 'world's biggest' hurricane simulator to help improve forecasts


A miniature house is perched at one end of the world's largest indoor hurricane simulator at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, in Miami, Florida

Miami (AFP) - The world's largest hurricane simulator is now complete and experts hope it will improve forecasters' ability to predict how strong a storm will get, which has been a key weak spot for science until now.

The $15 million wind and wave machine at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science resembles a giant aquarium tank, without the fish.

When lead scientist Brian Haus switches on the 1,700 horsepower engine, a roaring sound fills the $47 million building that houses the tank, known formally as SUSTAIN (SUrge-STructure-Atmosphere INteraction Facility).

Paddles begin to roil the 38,000 gallons (144,000 liters) of fresh water, though salt water can also be used.

Aquamarine waves arc gracefully against the acrylic windows, then grow increasingly frenetic as a Category 5 wind blows over the top at a speed of 156 miles per hour (251 kph).

Soon, spray droplets scatter across the sides of the steel-framed tank, which measures 75 feet (23 meters) long, 20 feet wide and 6.5 feet deep.

A miniature model of a green-and-white house gets drenched by crashing waves that resemble a real-life storm surge assaulting a coastal property.

Haus, a self-described "wave-junkie," stares intently at the indoor storm he has helped create.

Read more >>

----------

http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/seawater/the-science/




ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902015) 20150506 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
150506 0600 150506 1800 150507 0600 150507 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.5N 79.0W 28.1N 79.3W 29.0N 79.1W 29.8N 78.5W
BAMD 26.5N 79.0W 29.1N 78.4W 31.0N 77.9W 32.3N 77.9W
BAMM 26.5N 79.0W 28.5N 78.6W 29.8N 78.0W 30.8N 77.5W
LBAR 26.5N 79.0W 28.5N 78.1W 30.6N 76.9W 32.1N 74.4W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 45KTS 54KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 45KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
150508 0600 150509 0600 150510 0600 150511 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.6N 77.8W 33.1N 77.6W 36.1N 78.3W 39.3N 76.1W
BAMD 33.1N 78.4W 33.7N 79.8W 33.3N 80.1W 34.1N 78.2W
BAMM 31.7N 77.4W 33.4N 78.1W 34.9N 78.8W 37.1N 77.3W
LBAR 32.5N 71.0W 31.0N 61.6W 28.3N 52.4W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 59KTS 61KTS 54KTS 51KTS
DSHP 59KTS 61KTS 35KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.5N LONCUR = 79.0W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 25.3N LONM12 = 77.8W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 24.6N LONM24 = 76.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1016MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Good morning. TWC/WU has covered our tornadoes yesterday:
Tornadoes, High Winds Damage Neighborhoods In Northern Germany; 1 Dead
Jess Baker, Published: May 5, 2015

Tornado as violent storms batter northern Germany
BBC News, 12 minutes ago

European Severe Weather database has counted 4 different tornadoes up to now. More suspicious events are investigated. Map, pics and more videos on this German weather website.



Video of the damage in Buetzow:


Edit:
BTW, a close colleague of mine comes from Buetzow. The house where she grew up is one of the damaged; she has shown it to me in one of the photo galleries in the internet. Fortunately her relatives now live in a different neighborhood. They are unharmed but very sad to see parts of their beautiful town devastated. Video with aerial view.

Buetzow-Tornado with dog (new video; probably a wedge tornado?):

Although the boat capsized later due to the wind, the two men and the dog remained unharmed.

Youtube-Video of the development of the same one.

Have a nice day, everyone! And: Thanks for the very interesting blog entry, Bob Henson. Guess we could have used some of those new forecast tools in Germany yesterday ...
oops, sorry for the dupe post
looks like there is no end in sight to the dry weather on the west coast of FL. As long as this low is meandering around on the east coast, we'll be on the dry side of it.
This was issued a little over an hour ago

Quoting 164. tampabaymatt:

looks like there is no end in sight to the dry weather on the west coast of FL. As long as this low is meandering around on the east coast, we'll be on the dry side of it.


As this thing starts to wrap up, most of Central & South Florida will be on the dry side soon looking at WV




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
524 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING NEAR THE BAHAMAS WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AND THEN MEANDER AND STRENGTHEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM MAY TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE
COAST...CREATING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN BUT MAY
CONTINUE TO CREATE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.


GREAT! Monday is the day FEDEX brings my 3 month meds from OptumRX. Hope I can still get them. URRRGGGGG
&
Good Morning

Based on SFC/Radar the SFC low appears to be right around here:

AL902015 - INVEST


IR/WV/Microwave RGB
thunderstorm season will have to wait a while. e cen fl.
Good morning, I love this nice soupy south FL weather. Makes me want to hit a Tiki bar, grab a rum runner and watch the low while enjoying the breeze and light rain.
Quoting 171. forecaster1:

Good morning, I love this nice soupy south FL weather. Makes me want to hit a Tiki bar, grab a rum runner and watch the low while enjoying the breeze and light rain.
While watching the cats get eaten....and the fungus spread....and the water rise. :)
Have a great day everyone!!! It's a beautiful day!
Visualizing thunder new study published. Link
90L

Good Morning, now we have 90L.

It will be interesting to see what happens next...

Sub or tropical in the making? OR BOTH!

Ana? We will see...

What about a possible landfall ...
not much mention of the needed rains in west texas & new mexico. gw's going to have to find another drought stricken area for their arguments.
Quoting 166. ProgressivePulse:



As this thing starts to wrap up, most of Central & South Florida will be on the dry side soon looking at WV






7 days with no rain and it looks like the next 7 days will be dry here in Fort Myers. Hopefully we'll get the S.E. flow established and we can get this rainy season started a little early. Low temperatures in the 70s next week is an indication of a return to higher dewpoints.
No Ana, just a low pressure heading north then out to sea.

South and central Florida will enjoy the Sun very soon and then all weekend!
179. MahFL
Well there is the low center on visible.



Quoting 178. wilburo33:

No Ana, just a low pressure heading north then out to sea.

South and central Florida will enjoy the Sun very soon and then all weekend!

YAY is she heading out to sea nOw?

Quoting 180. K8eCane:


YAY is she heading out to sea nOw?



If your in Florida, you should be in the sun by tomorrow afternoon, Ga and so. Car might be by Mother's Day.

I sure miss the classic wunderground. This new version is slow and cumbersome on this iPad. Classic worked great!
Quoting 177. Sfloridacat5:



7 days with no rain and it looks like the next 7 days will be dry here in Fort Myers. Hopefully we'll get the S.E. flow established and we can get this rainy season started a little early. Low temperatures in the 70s next week is an indication of a return to higher dewpoints.



May is always the toughest month for lawns in FL. High temps around 90 with little rain as the rainy season hasn't kicked in. It's only May 6th and I've already had to hand water some heat stressed areas of my lawn.
Good Morning..

6z HWRF on 90L



6z GFDL
GEOS-5 still takes 90L into the Carolinas..
00z NCEP Ensembles..

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061200
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending over portions of
Florida, the Bahamas, and adjacent waters are associated with an
upper-level trough and a weak surface low located over the
northwestern Bahamas. The aircraft reconnaissance mission scheduled
for this afternoon has been cancelled. However, conditions are
expected to become gradually more favorable for development over the
next day or so while the system moves slowly northward. A
subtropical or tropical cyclone could form by Thursday or Friday,
and interests along the southeast coast of the United States should
monitor the progress of this system through the weekend. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 8
PM EDT today. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Quoting 180. K8eCane:


YAY is she heading out to sea nOw?




Still too early
Good morning all. Models still struggling to figure out whether 90L will approach the NC/SC border and bend back W, or even WSW. Or, meander at the coast before getting booted out to the NE. Very interesting, and not as slam dunk just yet.
190. MahFL
Feeder bands :



And from NWS in WIlmington:

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP...AND THAT IT WILL MEANDER SLOWLY NEAR THE COAST AS IT
GETS BLOCKED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL RETROGRADE WEST OR EVEN SW THU/FRI...AND
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PERIODS OF RAINFALL...POSSIBLY HEAVY
AT TIMES...WILL IMPACT AT LEAST THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
BEYOND THAT HOWEVER...TIMING...TRACK...INTENSITY...AND OTHER IMPACTS
(WIND...CONVECTION...DURATION) ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION.
The surface low is visible on satellite associated with 90L.

I sure miss the classic wunderground. This new version is slow and cumbersome on this iPad. Classic worked great!

Has anyone else had this experience?
Thanks!
Attention, all hands!! We are in GRAVE danger of having a little breezy, rainy weather along the SE coast....Run for your lives!!!!!
This is the rotation that was just off Key Largo and Miami yesterday morning. It's now moved N.E. up the coast and is just off the coast of the Jupiter Beach area.
Quoting 193. wilburo33:

I sure miss the classic wunderground. This new version is slow and cumbersome on this iPad. Classic worked great!

Has anyone else had this experience?
Thanks!

I've tried it on an Ipad & it's quick. You may want to clean cookies, malware or what ever.
Quoting 179. MahFL:

Well there is the low center on visible.






Where? ESE of Lake O?
Quoting 193. wilburo33:

I sure miss the classic wunderground. This new version is slow and cumbersome on this iPad. Classic worked great!

Has anyone else had this experience?
Thanks!


My iPhone hates the blog, a lot. It's a Chrome-crasher. But I'll take slow over accuweather...

Quoting 194. presslord:

Attention, all hands!! We are in GRAVE danger of having a little breezy, rainy weather along the SE coast....Run for your lives!!!!!


Bags are packed, hotel is lodged ;)


HH flight cancelled
Quoting 194. presslord:

Attention, all hands!! We are in GRAVE danger of having a little breezy, rainy weather along the SE coast....Run for your lives!!!!!


Too funny, Press. Depending on how much blocking there is, it may get a little more wet than we would like around here. Then again, it may end up being dry as a bone. Flip a coin. Could go either way.
On Tuesday a area of low pressure sits off the SE coast of Florida, hardly anybody says a word. Wednesday morning it is an Invest, and EVERYONE LOSES THEIR MINDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 196. Skyepony:

Test Launch in about 7mins of SpaceX..


Successful test... nice.
i hope this thing brings us some rain, i got some yard debris to burn this weekend!



INVEST 90L here!!
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902015) 20150506 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
150506 0600 150506 1800 150507 0600 150507 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.5N 79.0W 28.1N 79.3W 29.0N 79.1W 29.8N 78.5W
BAMD 26.5N 79.0W 29.1N 78.4W 31.0N 77.9W 32.3N 77.9W
BAMM 26.5N 79.0W 28.5N 78.6W 29.8N 78.0W 30.8N 77.5W
LBAR 26.5N 79.0W 28.5N 78.1W 30.6N 76.9W 32.1N 74.4W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 45KTS 54KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 45KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
150508 0600 150509 0600 150510 0600 150511 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.6N 77.8W 33.1N 77.6W 36.1N 78.3W 39.3N 76.1W
BAMD 33.1N 78.4W 33.7N 79.8W 33.3N 80.1W 34.1N 78.2W
BAMM 31.7N 77.4W 33.4N 78.1W 34.9N 78.8W 37.1N 77.3W
LBAR 32.5N 71.0W 31.0N 61.6W 28.3N 52.4W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 59KTS 61KTS 54KTS 51KTS
DSHP 59KTS 61KTS 35KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.5N LONCUR = 79.0W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 25.3N LONM12 = 77.8W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 24.6N LONM24 = 76.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1016MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0N
206. MahFL
Hmmm, a SW motion might bring the center back towards Jacksonville from the SC coastline.
ivest 90L
Quoting 206. MahFL:

Hmmm, a SW motion might bring the center back towards Jacksonville from the SC coastline.


That would be one heck of an amplifying High.
209. vis0
CREDIT:: anyone? no one wants to take credit? this is based on a comment by a wxu member, 1 Dr. Masters blogbyte ago.

Due to the seriousness of what can develop i decided not to use the cat1-5 warning system (its on my blog)

The 1920s duck flatulence warning system, if the full warning where implemented ya'd had smelled it ...by noon


Here a tip for those in Norman testing new ideas or chasers that are well educated and know when to leave an area so they can see more tornadoes and appreciate this gift, called carnal life.
Learn to read the angles of the receding and oncoming wind streams (concentrated wind fields at vertical wall angles) just before a tornado developes through the use of combining lasers & sound as the angle of both directions create an opposing mirror readout in a certain direction yer gonna have a tornado 99% guaranteed. huh put hands around some strung out dough now first roll that dough between hands notice one hand does the opposing direction / opposing mirror of other. Now try to roll the dough not by tilting hands but by twisting wrists (as when one sees little mature ladys quickly elongating thin tortillas between hands, now just twist one wrist inward while other is outward walla you just cut yerself some tornado string/tube. Now use the momentum of one of the hands that created the cut off portion to spin off one of those dough halves and then that wall of wind left behind concentrates from a wall to a thin string as it leaves as if a string spinning a top, there's are deep/low sound changes at those angle's cutoff / changing points...ah i smell that my oatmeal empanada is done gotta go eat. (i posted this in haste as the new WxU site was freezing up and was typing this off the cuf so i figured post it now edited after i renew my bank account CD so i'm back ~6 hrs later and trying to remember what i wanted to type and spellchecked and kind of corrected)
sincerely
a nut
Quoting 199. win1gamegiantsplease:



My iPhone hates the blog, a lot. It's a Chrome-crasher. But I'll take slow over accuweather...



Bags are packed, hotel is lodged ;)


HH flight cancelled


Yes, this iPad does not like the blog either, two days ago when I was still using the classic version of wunderground I was keeping up just fine...how do I report issues?

Skyepony, I cleaned up the cookies and malware on the iPad but stillness he same result. I am a member on several blogs but this is the only slow blog.
Thanks everyone...back to our weather!
We are looking for a nice weekend here in Melbourne/Cocoa Beach
212. MahFL
Hurricane Hunters mission for today has been cancelled :(.
213. MahFL
Shear is down to 20 kts now.

214. MahFL
Hm, the zoomed in shear map shows less shear :

Quoting 183. ncstorm:

Good Morning..

6z HWRF on 90L



6z GFDL


It's interesting that the HWRF makes 90L a hurricane. I'm not sure how likely that is, but the HWRF was our best performing model during the 2014 season, beating the NHC on several occasions. Something to watch.
AL902015 - INVEST
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Awaiting Dr. Masters take later today on the Florida low. Lots of uncertainly between now and Friday as to how well it will organize downstream in terms of how much rain and wind it will generate for someone on the SE coast. If it is correct that the low is currently off the Coast of Jupiter, Florida, it is over-near the Gulf Stream sweet spot that may help fire more convection and lower the pressures during the course of the day:

Where are you all seeing recon was cancelled?.. I don't see the POD for today out yet. No mention in the discussion..

There was this..

RECENT OBSERVATIONS...BUOYS...AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A 1015
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR
26N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 31N75W.




wilburo33~ Results do vary.. It takes me hours to really clean up a machine.. You are fast.

Quoting 215. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's interesting that the HWRF makes 90L a hurricane. I'm not sure how likely that is, but the HWRF was our best performing model during the 2014 season, beating the NHC on several occasions. Something to watch.


Hard to imagine considering sub 26C SSTs and sub 50% mid level RH.
This spin off Jupiter is slightly above the surface but on the southern end of the trough axis... the LLC will form further NE well off Cape Canaveral later today...pressures are slightly lower here
Morning all.

Anyone have an idea when they may put GOES in rapid scan?
Quoting 219. Skyepony:

Where are you all seeing recon was cancelled?.. I don't see the POD for today out yet. No mention in the discussion..

There was this..

RECENT OBSERVATIONS...BUOYS...AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A 1015
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR
26N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 31N75W.




wilburo33~ Results do vary.. It takes me hours to really clean up a machine.. You are fast.





SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending over portions of
Florida, the Bahamas, and adjacent waters are associated with an
upper-level trough and a weak surface low located over the
northwestern Bahamas. The aircraft reconnaissance mission scheduled
for this afternoon has been cancelled



look in the new outlook for 90L and you see it
225. MahFL
Quoting 219. Skyepony:

Where are you all seeing recon was cancelled?


From the Tropical Outlook :

"The aircraft reconnaissance mission scheduled
for this afternoon has been cancelled. However, conditions are
expected to become gradually more favorable for development over the
next day or so while the system moves slowly northward"

Also the guy from the HH was on TWC and said it was because the low is close to land, I guess the NHC can track it on radar as it moves away from the FL coastline.
Will only note (per the closet bouys on the Bahamas and near Palm Beach below), that that reported gusts at the moment are a lot less in these outer fringes than at this time yesterday. Given the fact that sub-tropical systems generate much greater windfields that tropical systems, I am starting to wonder if the core is trying to make a tropical transition into a weak tropical depression.

If you will note from the wind directions below, it does look like a closed circulation is starting to form based on winds out of the South at the Bahamas and winds out of the NW at Lake Worth........................Just my personal take at the moment.


Bahamas (Settlement Point)

Station SPGF1
NDBC
Location 26.704N 78.995Wbr
Wed, 06 May 2015 13:00:00 UTC
Winds:S (170) at 13.0 kt gusting to 15.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure:30.01 in and rising
Air Temperature:74.3 F


Fort Worth Pier


Station LKWF1
NOS
Location:26.613N 80.034W
Wed, 06 May 2015 12:54:00 UTC
Winds:NW (320) at 7.0 kt gusting to 8.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure:30.00 in
Air Temperature:70.2 F
Dew Point:66.6 F
Water Temperature:77.0 F
good morning boys and girls.......tracking our first invest of the season....in the meery merry month of may.....and a better than slight possibility.....she gets a name....i noticed it formed just west of freeport in the bahamas.....where's the junk man....as i believe that's where he called it yesterday morning......
:) already answered by others :)
Quoting 215. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It's interesting that the HWRF makes 90L a hurricane. I'm not sure how likely that is, but the HWRF was our best performing model during the 2014 season, beating the NHC on several occasions. Something to watch.


That is not surface in that image, max wind from HWRF Diagnostics File is 52 knots.
I really really hate the new website
I'm using my IPad the only computer I have left
And this website in particular the blogs 85% of the time it keeps on crashing and refreshing the page
I am sick of it now
Website techs fix the darn problem please
The now cyclonic circulation is pretty evident on the vis loop posted below by Patrap.
Quoting 231. nrtiwlnvragn:



That is not surface in that image, max wind from HWRF Diagnostics File is 52 knots.


Much more reasonable.
12z NAM Forecast 4hrs from now



BAM 12z models...suggest the shallower it is the further N it goes...

237. JRRP
Quoting 232. wunderkidcayman:

I really really hate the new website
I'm using my IPad the only computer I have left
And this website in particular the blogs 85% of the time it keeps on crashing and refreshing the page
I am sick of it now
Website techs fix the darn problem please

lol me too
Quoting 133. ColoradoBob1:


117. Pallis1

Your avocados are under attack as well . A little tiny bug carries a fungus. A little tiny bug carried a fungus into the West .

The dead trees there are as large as Montana.

Never forget

A little tiny bug carries a fungus.



Ask Grothar about the climax chestnut forests that covered the eastern half of the U.S back in the day.
guys if your useing IE and firefox you may want too try chorme 42 on the new web site chorme 42 has worked vary well for me no slow lodeing or crashes chorme on the new web site with the blogs is really fast
well.......just ran through the models....no westward tracks....looks like florida is out of the picture sans some choppy surf......and they're all relatively close in landfall.....not often do we see that
Quoting 231. nrtiwlnvragn:



That is not surface in that image, max wind from HWRF Diagnostics File is 52 knots.

Yeah, I know that image was showing 900mb and not surface, I thought you were supposed to multiply by .85 to convert (and .8 to convert from 850mb to surface)?
Quoting 242. ricderr:

well.......just ran through the models....no westward tracks....looks like florida is out of the picture sans some choppy surf......and they're all relatively close in landfall.....not often do we see that


I am thinking that it might make a short run as a minimal tropical system near Florida and then transition again to sub or extra-tropical as it moves away from the coast; those current tracks take it away from Gulf Stream area towards the Outer Banks.
Quoting 219. Skyepony:

Where are you all seeing recon was cancelled?.. I don't see the POD for today out yet. No mention in the discussion..

There was this..

RECENT OBSERVATIONS...BUOYS...AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A 1015
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR
26N79W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 31N75W.




wilburo33~ Results do vary.. It takes me hours to really clean up a machine.. You are fast.




Skyepony, hey tks for the complement but I did the cleanup yesterday and remember, it is only an iPad!
On a more serious note, since you are a mod, can you help us notify the web techs please? Since I posted my issues, I have seen three others also say they are having issues like me.
Please help us out. As you can see, I have been here for over 10yrs and paid for service for several of them. I do not post much but joined during the 2004 storms we had in this area. I believe you are in the Melbourne area too.
Thank you in advance for any help you can provide! ;-)
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop

click image for short animated loop

Quoting 239. georgevandenberghe:




Ask Grothar about the climax chestnut forests that covered the eastern half of the U.S back in the day.



And the elms, don't forget the beautiful elms which have all but disappeared.
SW winds at Settlement Point


N winds at Canaveral E


Seems to suggest it is still a broad low, and that it is further offshore to the N of Settlement Point?
Well atleast we got very good model agreement
Base Radial Velocity .50 elevation


2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve



I am thinking that it might make a short run as a minimal tropical system near Florida and then transition again to sub or extra-tropical as it moves away from the coast; those current tracks take it away from Gulf Stream area towards the Outer Banks.

i agree

Quoting 244. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, I know that image was showing 900mb and not surface, I thought you were supposed to multiply by .85 to convert (and .8 to convert from 850mb to surface)?


Depends on location in the storm and I only have for 925 mb, not 900. Not sure how the numbers whould change for the 25 mb difference.


The main LLC is slowly forming about 80-100miles east of Melbourne and north of Freeport Bahamas currently..it will slowly get better organized and should be about 120 miles east of Daytona by 6pm
Quoting 249. StormJunkie:

SW winds at Settlement Point


N winds at Canaveral E


Seems to suggest it is still a broad low, and that it is further offshore to the N of Settlement Point?

Possible; but I would say that the South Winds at Sett Point confirm the current general vicinity give or take 50-100 miles.
co2now.org

April CO2

403.26 ppm
Quoting 240. Patrap:

Drone Footage of Germany Tornado damage




hi...this is a goes animated map
The LLC (vortex) that people been following off WPB and Jupiter was just the southern end of the trough
260. 900MB
Hey Y'all! Been a while and I didn't expect a pre-season appearance.

I've seen worse looking blobs than 90L and considering that it is May, I'm fairly impressed. Conditions look pretty conducive with the exception of SSTs which are marginal. I would expect this to mature into a low end tropical or sub-tropical storm before hitting SC on Friday.
Quoting 254. nrtiwlnvragn:



Depends on location in the storm and I only have for 925 mb, not 900. Not sure how the numbers whould change for the 25 mb difference.




Alright, thanks.
Well.....Charleston NWS is sold on the track being pretty much set in stone from this point forward, even without a closed low... Can't remember the last time I saw them this confident in the absence of a well-defined COC:

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
Quoting 241. Tazmanian:

guys if your useing IE and firefox you may want too try chorme 42 on the new web site chorme 42 has worked vary well for me no slow lodeing or crashes chorme on the new web site with the blogs is really fast


Safari seems to handle it well. I've been using the NUWU since it was introduced, with Safari, on a MacBook Pro that is now 5 years old. For some reason, some images fail to load (particularly, it seems, ones posted by Gro - his never loads. I'm sure there's a joke there somewhere) but overall the blog and website perform adequately.
Quoting 234. Grothar:

Gro, did GatorWX suddenly lose interest in cyclones? He's a neighbor of yours?
Quoting 265. LongIslandBeaches:



Safari seems to handle it well. I've been using the NUWU since it was introduced, with Safari, on a MacBook Pro that is now 5 years old. For some reason, some images fail to load (particularly, it seems, ones posted by Gro - his never loads. I'm sure there's a joke there somewhere) but overall the blog and website perform adequately.



yep i noted that on my iphone 6 useing safari
12z NAM keeps it off shore through 60hrs...which is in line with the CHS NWS thinking.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

Echo Tops 124 nm range




Just some facts for those that may be wondering...

- The strongest off-season Atlantic tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States is 2012's Tropical Storm Beryl, which did so near Jacksonville Beach, Florida, with winds of 65 mph.

- The earliest off-season Atlantic tropical cyclone to make landfall is the 1952 Groundhog Day tropical storm, which moved ashore near Cape Sable, Florida, on February 3.

- The strongest off-season Atlantic tropical cyclone in general (landfall or not) is 1951's Hurricane Able, which developed in a similar fashion to 90L and went on to attain peak winds of 115 mph.
Morning Nash. And yep, they seem pretty convinced that there is no real reason for it to retrograde to the W. I think this is also supported by the 12z BAM suite. The thinking being that the shallower the system, the less likely it is that it move towards the weak high pressure to the W. The stronger high pressure would either have to build in more than currently expected, or the system would have to get deeper and be more influenced by the high to the E. All speculation, but that seems to be the setup right now.

MYB to OBX. W side will see little to no weather. If it makes landfall, the N and NE sides will see the most significant weather.
Quoting 248. Grothar:



And the elms, don't forget the beautiful elms which have all but disappeared.


I still have a huge elm on one side of my house. It's old but healthy.
Quoting 271. StormJunkie:

Morning Nash. And yep, they seem pretty convinced that there is no real reason for it to retrograde to the E. I think this is also supported by the 12z BAM suite. The thinking being that the shallower the system, the less likely it is that it move towards the weak high pressure to the E. The stronger high pressure would either have to build in more than currently expected, or the system would have to get deeper and be more influenced by the high to the W. All speculation, but that seems to be the setup right now.

MYB to OBX. W side will see little to no weather. If it makes landfall, the N and NE sides will see the most significant weather.


That's good. In 24hrs, we went from Mothers Day being being ugly, to probably no weather at all.
The winds have picked up at Settlement point in the last two hours and winds now out of the SW (instead of out of the South); suggests that the low is moving North of there as noted by Stormjunkie earlier:


Station SPGF1
NDBC
Location:
 26.704N 78.995W
Date: Wed, 06 May 2015 14:00:00 UTC
Winds: SW (230°) at 18.1 kt gusting to 22.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.01 in and rising
Air Temperature: 75.6 F
Dew Point: 69.1 F

275. Ed22
Quoting 230. Patrap:


. This area of low pressure is getting more organized and strengthening as we speak, Can't understand with NHC in their stupidity on this current tropical system; I personally think it could be a tropical storm by Thursday morning. Windshear is in the low to moderate range and the tropical system is making the best of the moment...
Quoting 273. nash36:



That's good. In 24hrs, we went from Mothers Day being being ugly, to probably no weather at all.


As of now, it looks that way. Please note that I had my E's and W's backwards when that was quoted. lol
First game of the season.

Quoting 264. nash36:

Well.....Charleston NWS is sold on the track being pretty much set in stone from this point forward, even without a closed low... Can't remember the last time I saw them this confident in the absence of a well-defined COC:

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...THE DETAILS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HINGE GREATLY ON THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ITS EVENTUAL
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT THE SUITE OF MODELS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A
SIMILAR SOLUTION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TRACK NOW TAKES THE LOW
SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL WESTWARD SLIDE...AND HAS IT
CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR 33N/78W BY LATE SATURDAY. SUCH A POSITION
WOULD PUT THE CENTER ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF CHARLESTON COUNTY. FOR THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...THE 00Z/06
ECMWF WAS THE FAVORED SOLUTION AS IT FOLLOWS THIS SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK VERY CLOSELY. THE REASON THE ECMWF IS FAVORED IS DUE TO ITS
MINIMAL WESTWARD JOG WITH THE SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE DEEP RIDGE ALOFT. ALSO...IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT HAVING THE LOW RETROGRADE AWAY FROM THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE ABSENCE OF A PROMINENT STEERING
FEATURE TO THE EAST.

NOW THAT WE HAVE STARTED TO SOLIDIFY THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THE
GENERAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE QUESTION OF THE CHARACTERIZATION
REMAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT UNDER WHICH THE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING
SEEMS TO BE POINTING TOWARDS EITHER SOME TYPE OF SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
OR PERHAPS EVEN PURELY TROPICAL. AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD...THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY AND REMAINS AS SUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND EAST OF THE GULF STREAM
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AS WELL. FURTHERMORE...PHASE
DIAGRAM ANALYSES CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS INCREASED THE OUTLOOK TO MODERATE FOR
SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN ITS 5 DAY OUTLOOK...AND A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MAY EXPLORE THE STORM LATER TODAY.

HOWEVER...ITS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SYSTEM REMAINS PURELY EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOMES A CLASSIFIED
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME GIVEN
THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD AND WELL OFFSHORE TRACK. SUCH
A TRACK WOULD SOLIDLY PUT THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WEAKER AND DRIER
SIDE OF THE STORM. IN FACT...THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD
LIMIT ALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO THE TRI-COUNTY AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EASTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTLINE. IN FACT...THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WOULD INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH TIME
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A WARMING TREND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AND HAVE ESSENTIALLY
BEEN LIMITED TO JUST THE TRI-COUNTY REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. GIVEN
HOW FAR OFF THE COAST THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE...THE STRONGEST
WINDS REMAIN OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE ONSET OF THE BEST HEATING. IF THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WORKS
OUT...IT APPEARS THE MAIN TIME PERIOD FOR COASTAL HAZARDS SUCH AS
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND
OFFSHORE. ALL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS ANY GUIDANCE
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
Quoting 261. Patrap:

Lets go wit dis un then waterwitch11

Tornado Causes Widespread Damage in Northeast German Town
BERLIN %u2014 May 6, 2015, 7:20 AM ET




And here the latest very crazy "Inside the Buetzow tornado video" (with some German foul language):

Link to wetteronline (video is not on youtube yet).
More see post #158 this morning (don't miss the dog video).

BTW the injured girlfriend of the young man who was killed by a roof during the storm in Hamburg yesterday, gave life to a healthy baby boy today.
Quoting 277. WeatherBAC:

Edit Failed!
w


My bad, accidentally did that.
Quoting 275. Ed22:

. This area of low pressure is getting more organized and strengtheninformation as we speak, Can't understand with NHC in their stupidity on this current tropical system; I personally think it could be a tropical storm by Thursday morning. Windshear is in the low to moderate range and the tropical system is making the best of the moment...


This is not the NHC's first rodeo Ed. They know what they are doing. There is not currently a well defined LLC. They will classify it as a TD when and if it develops a defined LLC.
Basically same area where Arthur started to get organized in 2014.
This is what the CHS NWS sees shaping up. System just getting stuck in a rut. Nam has it sitting and spinning for 2 days.

12z NAM 48hrs



12z NAM 84hrs

Quoting 270. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just some facts for those that may be wondering...

- The strongest off-season Atlantic tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States is 2012's Tropical Storm Beryl, which did so near Jacksonville Beach, Florida, with winds of 65 mph.

- The earliest off-season Atlantic tropical cyclone to make landfall is the 1952 Groundhog Day tropical storm, which moved ashore near Cape Sable, Florida, on February 3.

- The strongest off-season Atlantic tropical cyclone in general (landfall or not) is 1951's Hurricane Able, which developed in a similar fashion to 90L and went on to attain peak winds of 115 mph.


1951's Hurricane Able was a freak of nature. An Atlantic major hurricane in May is insane.
Quoting 234. Grothar:


286. Ed22
Quoting 275. Ed22:

. This area of low pressure is getting more organized and strengthening as we speak, Can't understand with NHC in their stupidity on this current tropical system; I personally think it could be a tropical storm by Thursday morning. Windshear is in the low to moderate range and the tropical system is making the best of the moment...
Since when do we use the NAM as tropical cyclone guidance?
The predicted location of that sit and spin is very close to the very narrow corridor it has where it could benefit from the warm flow of the Gulf Stream. Should it sit on top of that, well it would have a continual supply of warmer water which would reduce impacts of upwelling.

90L
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

290. VR46L
Navy Imagery up

Quoting 287. Drakoen:

Since when do we use the NAM as tropical cyclone guidance?


lol Drak...WE don't. I have noted that I am not a fan of the NAM for tropical guidance. That said, it is in fairly good agreement with the other models (not showing some left field scenario where it ramps up to a CAT 2 and loops around heading for Miami). On top of that, this is very early in the season so the NAM may have a little more merit.
2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

295. VR46L
Quoting 292. GTstormChaserCaleb:

DOOM!!!




nice Gft .... hacked at the url and found it was one I had bookmarked ... just have to find where on that site the image is ;p
296. Ed22
Quoting 243. Patrap:


... Things is getting started, it looks to me that the system is warming up its core and could transition into full tropical system; its looks to me that is happening now this present moment, what say you weather files...
Quoting 257. Patrap:

co2now.org

April CO2

403.26 ppm

Already?
Jesus wept.
6z GFDL:

A shame, last nights flooding rains in and around the Austin area missed Lake Travis. Even though the drought is over in parts of these areas, these floods tend to miss these lakes. Travis is 37% full or 51 feet below full.

Quoting 296. Ed22:

... Things is getting started, it looks to me that the system is warming up its core and could transition into full tropical system; its looks to me that is happening now this present moment, what say you weather files...

I suggested this 3 hours ago; waiting to see if I was close or a total idiot for suggesting it............................. :)
Wonder if Ana can break the hurricane barrier unlike the past 6 times it was used..
Doubt it but still possible none the less



Its probably normal but I've noticed in even just my life that storms stupidly close to Florida never usually have storms on the Florida side..It's like they avoid us.
I can provide multiple examples.
Quoting 297. SeriouslySushi:


Already?
Jesus wept.


and that's April. May's going to be higher.
The environment today from western Oklahoma through western Kansas looks favorable for supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and several tornadoes, one or two of which may be strong.




The next several days in general look busy, with the highlight being Saturday. While some concerns still remain, I think it may end up being the biggest severe weather day of 2015 thus far.
12z GFS 2hrs from now



here we go maybe a tropical storm in a few days from now
Quoting 287. Drakoen:

Since when do we use the NAM as tropical cyclone guidance?


Should be since never.
Just received a pretty good squall from this storm in E. Orlando. I can see this firing up some good thunderstorms for the remaining afternoon here.


ITS LOOK LIKE INVEST 90L maybe making landfall in the next five days
Could be wrong but 90L looks pretty darn tropical to me.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 301. JrWeathermanFL:

Wonder if Ana can break the hurricane barrier unlike the past 6 times it was used..
Doubt it but still possible none the less



Its probably normal but I've noticed in even just my life that storms stupidly close to Florida never usually have storms on the Florida side..It's like they avoid us.
I can provide multiple examples.


It's pretty typical with tropical systems, especially ones that are weak or just forming, the majority of the moisture is on the eastern side of the system.
Quoting 257. Patrap:

co2now.org

April CO2

403.26 ppm


When I was a kid it was around 320ppm. .03% of the atmosphere was a number I just remembered and locked in my graycells.

No longer true. Now it's .04%

Incidentally it looks like we're going to have the sixth consecutive significantly warmer than normal May in the DC metro area. This week will average 8-10F above normal, typical for about the first of June. A lot can happen between now and the end of the month 3.5 weeks out and next week looks A BIT cooler than normal towards the end of the week but overall it's warm for us out to 15 days.



314. vis0
Quoting 270. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just some facts for those that may be wondering...

- The strongest off-season Atlantic tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States is 2012's Tropical Storm Beryl, which did so near Jacksonville Beach, Florida, with winds of 65 mph.

- The earliest off-season Atlantic tropical cyclone to make landfall is the 1952 Groundhog Day tropical storm, which moved ashore near Cape Sable, Florida, on February 3.

- The strongest off-season Atlantic tropical cyclone in general (landfall or not) is 1951's Hurricane Able, which developed in a similar fashion to 90L and went on to attain peak winds of 115 mph.
on earliest, wouldn't anything before March ~1st be the latest? dec jan feb to me fall under latest while mar apr may fall under earliest, just a thought
Quoting 307. Michfan:

Just received a pretty good squall from this storm in E. Orlando. I can see this firing up some good thunderstorms for the remaining afternoon here.


Quoting 301. JrWeathermanFL:

Wonder if Ana can break the hurricane barrier unlike the past 6 times it was used..
Doubt it but still possible none the less



Its probably normal but I've noticed in even just my life that storms stupidly close to Florida never usually have storms on the Florida side..It's like they avoid us.
I can provide multiple examples.


These things almost always suck our moisture away, though being early May (instead of during the rainy season) 90L won't leave us drier than average. Any rain showers we get will be a plus for 90L, since we would usually be dry.
If 90L develops into a tropical cyclone, does anybody think that an extension of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season from May 15th - Nov 30th may be warranted? It would be interesting to see what the average date of the first tropical cyclone occurrence has been over the past 50 and past 100 year periods.