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A new record minimum for arctic sea ice

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:07 PM GMT on November 18, 2009

Arctic sea ice reached a new record minimum during the first half of November, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (Figure 1). The record low ice extent this month is the first extended period of record minimum arctic sea ice since 2007. The new record minimum suggests that the gains in ice seen over the past two years were probably a temporary fluctuation due to normal year-to-year variability in the weather, and that the long-term arctic sea ice decline observed since the 1970s is continuing.


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent up to November 16, 2009, compared to the record low year of 2007 and the average from 1979 - 2000. Sea ice extent over the past ten days has fallen below the record minimum observed in 2007. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

What caused the new record low?
The record low was due to very warm air invading the Arctic during October, in combination with the unusually warm ocean temperatures that have prevailed in the region over the past few decades. The warm air temperatures were primarily the result of an intense series of low pressure systems in the Arctic Ocean, north of Siberia, that worked in concert with a very strong high pressure system north of Alaska to drive warm air from Central Asia poleward over the past six weeks. The strong storms and unusual pressure pattern brought winds of about 5 mph above average to large regions of the Arctic Ocean, which helped break up existing ice and kept ice from freezing as much as usual. With all that warm air flowing into the Arctic, the cold air that was there had to go somewhere else, and that "somewhere else" was North America. The U.S. recorded its 3rd coldest October on record in 2009, thanks to cold air flowing out of the Arctic. The temperature and sea level pressure patterns over the Northern Hemisphere for October (Figure 2) were highly anomalous, with temperatures up to 27°F (15°C) above average over the Arctic Ocean, and sea level pressures up to 11 mb above average. The atmospheric circulation pattern has shifted over the past two weeks, with the result that warm air from Central Asia is no longer being pumped into the Arctic so vigorously, nor is cold air from the Arctic streaming southward into North America. As a result, temperature anomalies in the Arctic are beginning to decline, and sea ice extent later this month will probably rise above the record minimums observed in 2007.



Figure 2. Departure of surface air temperature and surface pressure from average for October 2009. Surface temperatures in the Arctic were up to 27°F (15°C) above average over the Arctic Ocean, due to sea ice loss. The strongest anomalies occurred where sea ice was missing from its usual position, though the entire Arctic was affected. The clockwise flow of air around the anomalously strong high pressure system north of Alaska (labeled "H" in the right-hand image) helped drive a flow of very warm air from Central Asia into the Arctic, and a very cold flow of air out of the Arctic southward into North America. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

How will the November sea ice loss affect next summer's sea ice loss?
A record 19% of the Arctic sea ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. In the summer of 2009, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that mean winter arctic ice thickness declined by 48% between 1980 and 2008. The loss accelerated over the past five years, with the ice losing 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) of thickness between 2004 and 2008, finishing at 6.2 feet thick. This remarkable thinning was confirmed in May 2009 by the Catlin Arctic Survey, a 9-week, 435 km expedition across the Canadian Arctic led by polar scientist Professor Peter Wadhams of the University of Cambridge. Wadhams' expedition found that most of the route had first year ice just 5.9 feet (1.8 meters) thick. With El Niño conditions crossing from the moderate to strong category over the past two weeks in the Eastern Pacific, the prospects for a much warmer than usual winter in the Arctic have increased, likely setting the stage for continued record or near-record minimum sea ice extent and thickness into next spring. The arctic sea ice will be very vulnerable to a new record minimum next summer if warmer than average temperatures are seen over the Arctic.

Sea ice loss causes stronger storms in the Arctic
The stronger storms over the Arctic Ocean this fall were due, in part, to the loss of sea ice. In a 2009 article titled, Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979-2008, Simmonds and Keay found that September storms over the East Arctic intensified by about 1 mb over the past 30 years and had grown about 50 miles larger in diameter, thanks to all the extra heat energy supplied by more open water due to recent losses in Arctic sea ice. These stronger storms may create a positive feedback loop that will lead to even more sea ice loss: reduced sea ice drives stronger storms, whose winds break up sea ice, creating even more warm water to feed stronger storms with stronger winds, and so on. Now that the arctic sea ice is 48% thinner than 30 years ago, this effect will increase in importance, since thinner ice breaks up more readily in strong winds.

Expect an ice-free Arctic by 2030
In a press release put out by the Catlin Arctic Survey, Professor Wadhams said, "The Catlin Arctic Survey data supports the new consensus view--based on seasonal variation of ice extent and thickness, changes in temperatures, winds and especially ice composition--that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within about 20 years, and that much of the decrease will be happening within 10 years". In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, National Snow and Ice Data Center Director and Senior Scientist Dr. Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". At the December 2008 American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting, the world's largest climate change conference, sea ice expert Dr. Wieslaw Maslowski of the Navy Postgraduate School blamed 60% of the melting during the past decade on heat brought in by ocean currents, and projected that summertime arctic sea ice would completely disappear by 2016. Dr. Jim Overland of NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory was more conservative, projecting a 2030 demise of arctic sea ice. He thought we would be "hanging around where we are for a while", and thought it would take two more unusual summers like the "perfect storm" of 2007 to push the system to an ice-free state.

The consequences
There were 88 presentations on arctic sea ice at the 2008 AGU conference. None of the presenters expressed the view that the current long-term decline in arctic sea ice was almost entirely natural, or that we can expect the decline to reverse this century. Sea ice experts do blame part of the decline on natural variability in the weather, but we wouldn't be where we are now without the warming caused by human-emitted greenhouse gases. One view (Stroeve et al., 2007) is that human-emitted greenhouse gases are responsible for 47 - 57% of the arctic sea ice loss since 1979. Heat-absorbing black soot from fires and pollution settling on the white ice is thought to also be a significant contributor.

The consensus I heard at the AGU conference among arctic sea ice experts was that the summertime sea ice will be gone by 2030. If they are correct, we can expect a period of significantly accelerated global climate change to begin 10 - 20 years from now. Arctic sea ice is one of the critical components maintaining the stability of our current climate. Once the the ice is gone, the climate will become unstable, with highly unpredictable results. It is true that Earth's past has many examples of warmer climates that evolved due to natural causes where life flourished, and we shouldn't fear the new, stable climate we will eventually arrive at centuries from now. However, life on Earth is adapted to the current climate. The changes that will occur during the transition will be extremely disruptive to Earth's ecosystems and the humans that rely on them for life. If one were to rate the destructive capability of climate change the way we rate hurricanes, I would rate current climate change at the "Invest" or "tropical disturbance" stage--the climate change storm is just beginning to organize. But the coming climate change storm is destined to hit our children with the full fury of intensifying hurricane.

References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009, "Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958-2008", Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035

Simmonds, I., and K. Keay (2009), Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19715, doi:10.1029/2009GL039810.

Stroeve, J., M.M. Holland, W. Meier, T. Scambos, and M. Serreze, Arctic sea ice decline:Faster than forecast", GRL 34 L09501, doi:1029/2007GL029703, 2007.

The road to Copenhagen
By some accounts, the future of the world will be at stake this December, when the crucial U.N. Climate Change Conference will be held December 7 - 18 in Copenhagen, Denmark. At that meeting, the leaders of the world will gather to negotiate an agreement to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The new agreement will be the world's road map for dealing with climate change, and the stakes are huge. Dr. Ricky Rood, author of Wunderground's climate change blog, will be there, and Wunderground has given the University of Michigan a grant to send a student who will also blog for us. I have a number of posts I'm planning in the run-up to Copenhagen, including:

- Impact of arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere winter weather
- The Manufactured Doubt industry
- What global warming skeptics say about arctic sea ice
- Is higher CO2 more beneficial for Earth's ecosystems?

I'll also have an end-of-hurricane season summary on November 30, plus posts on whatever breaking weather stories occur. My next post will be Friday, when I plan to summarize the global weather last month, which was the 2nd - 6th warmest October on record.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Sea Ice

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

500. keep us informed! :)
Thank you, LST! We're here for both of you oh, and you ROCK too!
Quoting atmoaggie:
LOL. Someone sent me this and I felt I had to share: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/19/not-finding-any-gore-airbrushes-in-hurricanes-for-his-new-boo k/

Look at the 2 plots...bad issues with the hurricanes aside (including the backwards one), depicting sea level rise by erasing Cuba, Hispaniola, Panama!, but leaving parts of Florida, the Yucatan, Louisiana, well, anything at all east of the front range of the Rockies...what kind of climate change is he envisioning?!? More funny fiction from Gore's fantasy land...

Really curious about the thinking behind the faux-satellite shot. Maybe I am too quick to assume there wasn't much.

I do think that guy has earned another award, though...


Funny thing is though, we need extremists like him to counter the extremists from the other end of the spectrum. All part of the pendulum swing (like England too, bobbies on bicycles). Usually things end up in the middle somewhere.

editors comment: This brief editorial in no way reflects which way my windmills tilt.
505. don't be that guy...seriously, don't be that guy.

LOL ;P
507. xcool


Well, it is clear to me, that Mr. Gore has capitulated and joined the Other Side. This book will put a serious dent in the GW believers (me). And give ammo to the disbelievers to bonk us with.
Has Gore been bought out? Thats my conspiracy theory, anyway.
LOLOLOL Mr. Gore! You done sunk your own dam boat!! And left the crew up the creek without so much as a methane emission to fall back on.
howdy all
Pottery - Al Gore is gay???
Quoting pottery:
Well, it is clear to me, that Mr. Gore has capitulated and joined the Other Side. This book will put a serious dent in the GW believers (me). And give ammo to the disbelievers to bonk us with.
Has Gore been bought out? Thats my conspiracy theory, anyway.
LOLOLOL Mr. Gore! You done sunk your own dam boat!! And left the crew up the creek without so much as a methane emission to fall back on.


Al Gore is gay?
Quoting Dakster:
Pottery - Al Gore is gay???

Al Gore is gay?


LOL somebody better tell Tipper :)
512. xcool
lol
I dont know!!
Maybe I should have said "the Dark Side" but then that would open a whole 'nother door. Language is so fraught....
LOL Pottery! You're on a roll today. Did you finish the bottle of rum yet? :)
Nope. But I turned it over. So now, its half empty (or was it half empty before? I cant recall) LOL
Quoting pottery:
Nope. But I turned it over. So now, its half empty (or was it half empty before? I cant recall) LOL


pass it this way :P haha long day at school
LOL in either case you still have half a bottle and that's a good thing :)
Quoting PcolaDan:


Funny thing is though, we need extremists like him to counter the extremists from the other end of the spectrum. All part of the pendulum swing (like England too, bobbies on bicycles). Usually things end up in the middle somewhere.

editors comment: This brief editorial in no way reflects which way my windmills tilt.

But how does having 6000' Cuba mountains go under, leaving the (correction, 530)-something-feet highest point in LA help anyone?
Or the 10,000 ' Panama mountains just disappear and the Yucatan Peninsula goes unscathed?!?
And the equatorial hurricane and clockwise Florida-cane help whose cause?

All absurd (and no, not at all debatable) Embarrassing, really. Some artist should have stuck it out in math or physics or geography.

Just so everyone is clear, this is not about AGW and the large unknowns and caveats that come with the data, theories, or physics. This is about a depiction of Earth sometime in the future showing some apparent sea level rise that is weirdly selective. Marsh lands remain, but mountainous areas are underwater. Goofy, period.
Yep, half is fine! And, its a big one too.
Had a nice shower this afternoon, 1/2 ". Plants are sighing with delight.
1/2" gives me about 750 galls from my roof into the cistern.
(edited)
Pottery,
Have you read the new book yet? I am just wondering where the tirade came from? I saw him on Larry King last week and he didn't sound like he no longer believes in GW. Climate Crisis is what he was talking about which is about right.
No Junky, I have not.
I based my tirade purely on the link at post 505.
My comment was in humour, rather than anything else.
I may not bother to read the book anyway...
Quoting pottery:
No Junky, I have not.
I based my tirade purely on the link at post 505.
My comment was in humour, rather than anything elsa.
I may not bother to read the book anyway...


I haven't read it either, just wondering if you had and that's why you were upset.
-
Quoting PcolaDan:


Funny thing is though, we need extremists like him to counter the extremists from the other end of the spectrum. All part of the pendulum swing (like England too, bobbies on bicycles). Usually things end up in the middle somewhere.

editors comment: This brief editorial in no way reflects which way my windmills tilt.


Well, maybe not so much. If it were not for his extreme rhetoric and media blitz, I have the feeling that the other side would not have gone so far out to rebuke his claims. Extremism begets extremism.
Speaking of bottle half-full; there's good news and there's bad news, and they're the same news.

Hampton homeowners may miss out on FEMA flood assistance

By David Macaulay 247-7838
Newport News VA Daily Press
12:56 p.m. EST, November 19, 2009

HAMPTON - Hundreds of homes in Hampton suffered damage in last week's nor'easter but homeowners are unlikely to qualify for federal emergency assistance because of the high number of people covered by flood insurance, officials say.

The city has likely qualified for FEMA's public assistance program, and small businesses are expected to be eligible for low-interest loans to address storm damage. Homeowners affected by flooding might not qualify for federal funds, however, because many people in the city appear to be covered by insurance.

"Our field teams are finding a much higher than typical flood insurance coverage in our community," said Assistant City Manager Mary Bunting. "I think that's because people learned from (Hurricane) Isabel and other storms. They have been amazed at the percentage of people with flood insurance ... the trick is we may not have enough uninsured to get the federal declaration."

Bunting said it was good that many homes have flood insurance, but it would be "unfortunate" if the city failed to qualify for federal assistance.
523. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, over? LOL
Pottery, i still would like to see what the diary reads when the bottle of rum is empty! LOL
Quoting btwntx08:
ok bloggers i know someone in here is trying to take away our votes for severestormstrike and that there is wrong u all think she's gonna listen to u and second don't listen to her.last of all she been ban lots of times and don't think she has change cause she hasn't
dont like the hippo either so i advice u all to change your minds and think before voting for that person so all with that i would most advice u to vote for severestormstrike and we are gonna make wu much better then it is now.

thanks
severestormstrike's tresurer btwntx08


Stupid, just plain stupid.
Quoting pearlandaggie:
523. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, over? LOL


.....and which service were you in???
what is the voting for???
Quoting SQUAWK:


Stupid, just plain stupid.

Squawk, is this something I need a language interpreter for, or may I just go ahead and make the meatloaf I was planning for dinner?
529. i wasn't...unfortunately. i should have gone, but the world was quite different from today when i was the appropriate age...
-
-
533. obviously i don't...
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Squawk, is this something I need a language interpreter for, or may I just go ahead and make the meatloaf I was planning for dinner?


I think the meatloaf idea is a safe bet. LOL
Quoting btwntx08:
ok bloggers i know someone in here is trying to take away our votes for severestormstrike and that there is wrong u all think she's gonna listen to u and second don't listen to her.last of all she been ban lots of times and don't think she has change cause she hasn't
dont like the hippo either so i advice u all to change your minds and think before voting for that person so all with that i would most advice u to vote for severestormstrike and we are gonna make wu much better then it is now.

thanks
severestormstrike's tresurer btwntx08




you wanna take this outside?
Quoting tornadodude:
what is the voting for???

So You Think You Can Forecast?????

Quoting pearlandaggie:
533. obviously i don't...

I'm SOOOO confused!
Where's Grothar to tell me "Good Night, Gracie."
My money is on you, Amy :)
Quoting pearlandaggie:
529. i wasn't...unfortunately. i should have gone, but the world was quite different from today when i was the appropriate age...


That comment was typical of Naval Aviation in my years there. That is why I asked.
thanks ic...
539 keep it serect :)
Me too kid.
Quoting SQUAWK:


Well, maybe not so much. If it were not for his extreme rhetoric and media blitz, I have the feeling that the other side would not have gone so far out to rebuke his claims. Extremism begets extremism.


Unfortunately in today's media world there will always be at least one extremist who gets on the air. Thus the door is open for the other side, be it GW, politics, religion, best cars makers, etc. Maybe he's planning to write shows for the History Channel soon (read: Armageddon Channel).

As an aside, looking at that map, wonder if my little plot of Florida land will become waterfront property!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

So You Think You Can Forecast?????


I'm SOOOO confused!
Where's Grothar to tell me "Good Night, Gracie."


Say Good Night, Gracie!!!!
537. I for one would not mess with the dancing Purple Hippo.

Silver Spring, MD
Thursday
58° F | 49° F
T-storms
90% chance of precipitation

Feels like: Clammy Yucky
Pearland, 527.
OK. But it will take a while you know. I dont know who started the rumour that I am partial to heavy consumption of you-know-what (I have my suspicions tho).LOL
But, lets just say, that my heart is in good shape, and recent research in Spain verifies that the stuff is good for mens hearts!
( May destroy kidneys, livers, brains, other organs. But what the...?)
ok all please mail at once to tell u something
*Good grief, I hate waiting!!!*

Hello, all...no news as yet...just bored outta my gourd.
547. LMAO...i heard that! rum is supposed to be a good degreaser :)
Quoting Grothar:


Say Good Night, Gracie!!!!


Oh, my Hero!

The meatloaf awaits; needs to be properly meteorologically calibrated and configured for optimal atmospheric conditions, including but not limited to, heat, humidity, and altitude.

and canines like it, too.

See you all later, will check back for Mr. & Mrs. Flood reports.

Quoting NRAamy:
Quoting btwntx08:
ok bloggers i know someone in here is trying to take away our votes for severestormstrike and that there is wrong u all think she's gonna listen to u and second don't listen to her.last of all she been ban lots of times and don't think she has change cause she hasn't
dont like the hippo either so i advice u all to change your minds and think before voting for that person so all with that i would most advice u to vote for severestormstrike and we are gonna make wu much better then it is now.

thanks
severestormstrike's tresurer btwntx08




you wanna take this outside?


Watch it dude, she'll clock you, sit on you and if all else fails she'll finish you off with her sling shot.
junky...I never threaten anyone with a gun....please ammend that, ok? People have been banned from WU for threatening that before.

When there are no tropical systems around,the mind or should I say blog wanders all over the place.
LST,hang in there,waiting is the worst,but it'll be over before you know it.I'll be leaving soon,but will try to check in tonight,but if not tomorrow.
Quoting btwntx08:
ok all please mail at once to tell u something


dude, you're not making sense today. What's with the poor grammar and sentence structure? It's hard to understand what points you're trying to make. From what I have read so far I am guessing you are the treasurer for a new website to compete with WU?? Good luck with that...I agree this blog gets hijacked from time to time but it's gonna be hard to steal the marketshare this site has as an overall weather resource to bloggers and non-bloggers alike.
Awake. You Torture me! I am spouse-less these days, and my attempt at dinner last night was an ecological disaster of the 12th kind.
Perhaps the oven was too hot? Or the timer was set too long? Whatever it was, roasted charcoal would of tasted better.
Bummer! And, yes, I am quite handy around the fire. Usually!
Please send a portion of meatloaf my way. Thanks.
Amy,
Point taken, and amended (with one m).


Quoting NEwxguy:
When there are no tropical systems around,the mind or should I say blog wanders all over the place.
LST,hang in there,waiting is the worst,but it'll be over before you know it.I'll be leaving soon,but will try to check in tonight,but if not tomorrow.


Thanks, NE. Four years ago, Flood waited for me through a much longer surgery - over 5 hours - so I owe him. Not that I wouldn't do it, anyway. I'll post an update just as soon as I talk to the doctor. Shouldn't be too much longer, now. :)
The Western GOM Low will form the next 24 hrs then move east

thanks Junky...never thought I'd say that....

;)


211
fxus64 klix 192120
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
320 PM CST Thursday Nov 19 2009


Short term...
mild conditions to continue one more day with a gradual increase
in low level moisture to impart warmer temperatures next 24 hours
or so. Models continue to show consensus on developing a west Gulf
low pressure system Friday as upper level trough advances in southern
branch flow across Texas towards the west Gulf. Models do differ
somewhat on track through forecast area with some suggesting the
center of circulation moving onshore and placing the missisippi
counties and lower southeast Louisiana parishes briefly in the
warm sector...while others continue to keep land areas on the
cooler side of the low. Will maintain continuity of forecast with
track just along the coast or across the near coastal waters. Bulk
of sensible weather should take place after midnight Friday
through about noon Saturday with thunder limited to marine areas
and perhaps the near coastal parishes. Models have seemed to
soften the gradient somewhat ahead of the system but an increase
to moderate easterly flow is expected for some duration Friday
night and early Saturday. Severe weather not anticipated over land
areas though marine zones may experience squall line activity in
advance of the low's passage. There will be a surge component to
tides with the greater run-up likely to take place during the
astronomical low tides. No coastal flood statements will be issued
due to expected minimal impacts but an increase in waters levels
may be noted through Saturday late morning/early afternoon before
returning to normal levels Saturday night.

Quoting NRAamy:
thanks Junky...never thought I'd say that....

;)


No problem...
564. P451
And...here we go.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
631 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009

...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THERE IS A VERY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...HOWEVER THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AND THE SOUTH TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAINFALL
TOTALS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 37 ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 3
TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WEST OF INTERSTATE 37 ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 1/2
INCH AND 2 INCHES....HOWEVER ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND
INLAND COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 16 AND INTERSTATE 37.
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES INTO EAST TEXAS.

===
5-Day QPF Totals

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
351 PM CST THU NOV 19 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MOISTURE HAS SURGED
BACK INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS. AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MSAS SHOWING LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -5 TO -6 DEGREES OVER THE
COASTAL BEND...AND LAPS SHOWING CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
THE COASTAL BEND...WITH KCRP RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME STRONGER
CELLS FORMING TO THE SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY MOVING NORTHWARD.

STAGE IS SET FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR WITH THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...JUST WEST OF
EL PASO THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BIG BEND
TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE RIO GRANDE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE COASTAL
BEND FRIDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET/SREF ALL SHOW IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND BY 12Z FRIDAY
AS THE 90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND A
POLAR JET STREAK LIFTS OUT OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE LEADS TO LARGE OMEGA FIELD OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS
COAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
PORTION OF SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO
BEEVILLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WATCH AREA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES MAINLY OVER
THE MID COAST REGION.

ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WHILE MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY
LINGERING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING INHIBITS
MENTIONING SEVERE IN ZONE FORECAST...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR
LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THIS TIME FRAME. BUT WITH THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING BY THE MID COAST REGION...WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING. ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS PROG ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY...REACHING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. (DISCARDED THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS TROUGH AND NEVER BRINGS A
FRONT...THUS KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL WED NGT.) MODERATE
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH FORCING
ALONG THE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH A CHANCE OF SH/TSRA. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND AWAITS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER
TROUGH AND COLD SFC RIDGE DIVES INTO THE MID SOUTH. A SWLY FLOW
ALOFT (SUBTROPICAL JET) WILL KEEP M/C SKIES IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY PERIOD.

&&
p451 its old heres the new one
Any word on Flood?
Pottery, if the USDA Animal & Plant Health Inspection Service would let it go through...we'd be glad to share!

Do you have such exotic goods as frozen Marie Callender's? (Do NOT look at fat content, that's what makes it tasty. Besides, Dr. Atkins says fat is okay.) That and pizza keep my hubby pretty content when I'm away...that, and his man cave, and the dogs.


Mrs Flood (LongStrangeTrip) has opened a blog so we can feel free to post music, pictures, you-tubes etc to help entertain The Flood and get to know the Mrs!!!
Quoting Grothar:
Any word on Flood?


Hi, Grothar...Mrs. Flood, here. He's still in surgery, been about 3 hours, now. They said it would be about that, so I'm hoping to hear something soon.

I've started a Wunderblog to update everyone on how he's doing. Also, as our WU friend icmoore suggested, it will be a good place for Flood (and me) to hang out while he's recuperating. He can chat with everyone and not have to worry about the topic.
Oops, see 570. Thank you, Mrs. Flood. New blog for you is good idea; guess I'll have to freshen up on that windows multi-tasking thing.
Hi LST! So glad you did it! Hang in there :)
Quoting icmoore:
Hi LST! So glad you did it! Hang in there :)


Thanks, ic - this would be a whole lot easier if they'd tell me which room we'll be in, so I didn't have to babysit all of our stuff! Can't even go outside to stretch my legs and get some fresh air...
Yikes I'm sorry LST they're not helping to make this ant easier for you. Hopefully you can find out something sooner than later now.
Good Morning all. going to be an absolute stinking hot day here in old Sydney town. It's 10am and already 30C(86F) ment to get up to 40C(104F). Last night there was a lightening storm that passed just north of Sydney in the Hawkesbury area that started a few bush fires, currently there are approx 34 dangerous bush fires in NSW and plenty more in QLD and SA.
Cheers AussieStorm
CATASTROPHIC FIRE DANGER IN PARTS OF NSW TODAY
Posted: 19/11/2009

NSW Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons has issued a warning to residents about the need to be prepared for bush fires, with extensive total fire bans and some parts of the state experiencing a Catastrophic Fire Danger Rating on Friday 20 November.


Commissioner Fitzsimmons said based on latest predictions from the Bureau Of Meteorology,the Lower Central West Plains, Southern Riverina, Northern Riverina, South Western and Far Western areas will experience a Catastrophic fire danger tomorrow (Friday).

Total Fire Bans have been declared in the following Fire Areas until midnight tomorrow night, due to expected hot and dry conditions.

* Greater Sydney (including the Central Coast and Blue Mountains) – Severe
* Upper Central West Plains - Extreme
* Lower Central West Plains – Catastrophic
* Greater Hunter – Severe
* Southern Slopes – Extreme
* Monaro Alpine – Severe
* Eastern Riverina – Extreme
* Southern Ranges – Severe
* Southern Riverina – Catastrophic
* Central Ranges – Severe
* Northern Riverina – Catastrophic
* Northern Slopes – Severe
* South Western – Catastrophic
* North Western – Severe
* Far Western – Catastrophic

“People living in areas where a Catastrophic fire danger rating is forecast should ensure they avoid being in bush fire prone areas tomorrow (Friday),” Commissioner Fitzsimmons said.

“This is not a call for alarm or panic. Simply, if you live in these areas, plan activities away from a bush fire prone area, such as going to a friend’s house, a shopping centre or into town,” he
said.

Commissioner Fitzsimmons said in those areas with a fire danger rating of Catastrophic, even homes which are specially designed and constructed to withstand a bush fire, and are properly prepared, may not be safe during a fire.

“Under these conditions any fire that starts and takes hold will typically be uncontrollable, unpredictable and fast moving. Embers will be blown ahead of the fire, creating spot fires that will move quickly and may threaten your home earlier than the predicted main fire front.

“If you are in a bush fire prone area under a Catastrophic rating, the safest option is leaving early, such as tomorrow morning. People in these areas need to be on the highest state of alert and be prepared.

“Rural land holders across the State have already shown great responsibility and diligence by restricting practices such as harvesting and agricultural activities in recent days.

“These types of restrictions will become even more important during this period of elevated fire danger.

“No matter where you live, no matter what the fire danger, now is not the time for complacency, but planned and considered action,” Commissioner Fitzsimmons said.

A map of affected areas, including centres under a Catastrophic Fire Danger Rating, can be found here.
Diary continues---

Nov 19th, PM. A slight short soft shower soon saturated some soil. Was distressed at bottle being half empty. Inverted it. Half full now. cannot find way to unscrew cap, while preventing contents from escaping. Brain playing tricks. could have sworn it was Thursday. Friend having bionic additions to neck. Wonder if it will change the colour of his eyes? would miss the traffic- light look if it does.
Quoting Patrap:
The Western GOM Low will form the next 24 hrs then move east

Will develope into what?
Wonder if it will change the colour of his eyes? would miss the traffic- light look if it does.

nah...it's Jerry we're talkin' about...he'll still be drivin' that train.....

;)
Quoting stormsurge39:
Will develope into what?

an LPA. lol
I just talked to the surgeon. Surgery took longer because they got in there and found that his spine and bone structure are not as they should be. They ended up fusing L3-L4, as well, plus some additional grafting. Doctor says he needed to make certain the screws themselves would not cause more pain, being that they were inserted at L4-L5, but going through L4-L3.

So, he's in recovery, doing well. More later on the new blog. I'll poke my head in here too, after they move him to the room.

Thanks, ALL OF YOU!!!! :)


Jerry's out of surgery! All the hippies rejoice!!!!!!!!!

:)
Wow, Aussie.
Sounds pretty serious down there.
Keep damp!
Oh Good. Flood is out of op. Rejoice.
And I found a way to get the cap off the bottle too. Rejoice.
Currently in Bourke, Far NW NSW..... 107.4°F
Aussie, what time is it now?
Quoting pottery:
Aussie, what time is it now?

11:05am Friday
Quoting AussieStorm:

11:05am Friday


Hey, Aussie, if you're a day ahead of us how come you never tell us what is going to happen? You could really help our NHC with their forecasting!!! lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all.

On the dryer issue, in the Bahamas, dryers are still considered luxury items by many. Pple who use them tend to do so only in protracted periods of wet weather and/or at "washhouses" (laundromats). Most pple here, even apartment dwellers and condominium owners, have at least a small clothes line or access to one, and most make regular use thereof.

I have three clotheslines (one inside),use them more often than not (although I have a dryer), and realize a considerable savings in my electricity bill each month.
591. xcool



Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Aussie, if you're a day ahead of us how come you never tell us what is going to happen? You could really help our NHC with their forecasting!!! lol

I could also tell you the Lotto numbers NFL scores. lol
Aussie, I just wish you'd report in Fahrenheit degrees. We're a bit behind the times here in America.
I'm the organizer of the election we've got going on and I want to say that this is JUST FOR FUN! No one is taking over Wunderground. This is just an election because our lives are boring, and we want to do something exciting. :)
Quoting Chicklit:
Aussie, I just wish you'd report in Fahrenheit degrees. We're a bit behind the times here in America.

I try to report in both Fahrenheit and Celcius
Fire zone residents told to leave homes
Friday November 20, 2009 - 10:41 EDT

Residents in bushfire-prone areas of New South Wales where a catastrophic fire warning is in place are being told to spend the day away from home.

Thirty-four fires are burning in the state's north, central west and on Sydney's northern outskirts but none are threatening properties.

Forecast temperatures in the mid-40s and hot winds have pushed the warning to its highest risk level for the lower central west plains, northern and southern Riverina, south-western and far western regions. Elsewhere the danger is extreme or severe.

It is the first time the warning has been used in New South Wales since a new national alert system was introduced in the wake of Victoria's Black Saturday fires.

Fire crews are also battling dozens of blazes across South Australia, where hot conditions have eased but severe thunderstorms forecast for today are expected to make conditions difficult for firefighters.

Officials say almost 100 fires across South Australia have been sparked by lightning in the past 24 hours and about 20 houses are in the path of a fire in the Spring Gully Conservation Park in the Clare Valley.

Meanwhile, a severe fire danger continues across the northern half of Victoria today.

Firefighters are also trying to control a fire in a pine forest at Lyons in Victoria's far south-west, while other crews are monitoring a 40-hectare blaze in a pine plantation at Dorodong, north west of Casterton.

In New South Wales, five of the state's 21 fire areas have received the catastrophic danger rating.

The warning is meant to represent the worst possible bushfire danger, where fast-moving, uncontrollable fires can threaten homes and lives suddenly and without warning.

Rural Fire Service (RFS) Assistant Commissioner Rob Rogers says the catastrophic warning means if a fire starts in those areas it will be hard to suppress.

"Simply, be smart. Plan your day. Plan to go to town. Go to a friend's place who doesn't live in a bushfire-prone area. Go to the pool," he said.

"Do something for the heat of the day to avoid being in a bushfire-prone area, just to give you the best chance or survival.

"The difficulty in catastrophic conditions is that homes may not provide the safety they would at lower levels."

Mr Rogers says crews are working to control fires on the northern outskirts of Sydney, affecting the Hawkesbury, Bilpin and Colo Heights areas.

He says no properties are under threat and that they were started by lightning strikes overnight in areas hard to access.

RFS Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons says it will not be safe for most people living in areas under a catastrophic warning to stay and defend their homes if they come under threat.

"Generally speaking, that message has to be tailored to the local situation," he said.

"Obviously if you are in a bushfire-prone area and you are not well prepared, that is going to be an unsafe place to be.

"Homes are not designed and planned to withstand conditions typically with this sort of rating."

Mr Fitzsimmons says conditions across most of the state have been hot and dry for more than a week, but today winds are expected to pick up as temperatures hit the mid-40s.

"The very hot temperatures we've seen across New South Wales right throughout this last week are simply breaking hundred-year records," he said.

South Australia's Country Fire Service (CFS) says erratic weather conditions mean the fire threat has not yet eased.

It has started to rain in some parts of the state, but the fire danger in the northern areas is still extreme.

The CFS says there are now three main fires causing concern - one near Marion Bay on Yorke Peninsula, one near Sevenhill in the Clare Valley, and another at Wirrabara in the Flinders Ranges.

In the past 24 hours, more than 2,000 volunteer firefighters have been battling various blazes across the State. One firefighter near Kingston has been treated for injuries.

Five people were injured yesterday when two CFS trucks collided during a blaze on Yorke Peninsula.

CFS spokesman Euan Ferguson says people from local communities have also helped out.

"In many areas, farmers with their firefighting utes, their little utes, with tanks on the back have been absolutely outstanding in initially responding to these fires and assisting CFS," Mr Ferguson said.

About 20 houses are in the path of the Clare Valley fire, which is spreading in an easterly direction and burning in native scrub. A helicopter is flying over the area to assess the extent of the threat.

Residents there have been told to activate their bushfire survival plans or leave the area.

Port Augusta CFS spokesman Bluey Devine says the fires in the Flinders Ranges have been hard to access and crews monitored them overnight and a water bomber aircraft is on its way.

"We have got a bomber coming in landing at Port Pirie this morning and we are also hoping to get a spotter up so we can get a better assessment of these fires and hopefully get some assistance from the air," he said.

Fire crews are also mopping up at the scene of last night's fire at Pine Point on Yorke Peninsula.

At the height of the blaze, people staying at the local caravan park were evacuated as a precaution because CFS crews were worried about the changing wind direction.

The fire burnt through more than 300 hectares.

Fire crews also spent the night monitoring conditions on the Yorke Peninsula, where 1,200 hectares of crops and grassland were burnt in a fire that broke out close to Currumulka.

In Victoria, the CFA says it is unlikely that lightning started the fires burning in the state's far south-west.

Six tankers are working on a fire at Lyons, north west of Heywood, which ignited at about 3:30am AEDT.

Crews have now contained a fire in an Auspine plantation at Lake Mundi, west of Casterton.

CFA spokesman Stuart Ord says he does not think the fires were started by lightning.

"That's always a possibility, but we think it's probably more likely to be a re-light from some existing work done to clear some of those areas during the forestry practice."

Meanwhile, two water-bombing aircraft and a reconnaissance helicopter have been sent to the blaze at Dorodong which is burning in difficult terrain.

- ABC
Cobar, far NW NSW/ 109.0°F..... my temps here in Sydney, 97.9°F .
Bourke Airport, far NW NSW... 111.6F.... my Temp, 99.0F
Hey, Aussie, by the time I finished reading your entry #597, guess what, it was Friday here too!!!! Our Declaration of Independence wasn't that long. Hope everyone stays safe. I have a few hundred relatives there, as you know!
Quoting Grothar:
Hey, Aussie, by the time I finished reading your entry #597, guess what, it was Friday here too!!!! Our Declaration of Independence wasn't that long. Hope everyone stays safe. I have a few hundred relatives there, as you know!

well since the blog is slow i thought i would post the full article
x-ida
Quoting AussieStorm:
Cobar, far NW NSW/ 109.0°F..... my temps here in Sydney, 97.9°F .


Bourke Airport, NW NSW....111.6°F
My temp here in Sydney...101.3°F
Quoting AussieStorm:


Bourke Airport, NW NSW....111.6°F
My temp here in Sydney...101.3°F


Must be a good movie on.


Tropics are quiet, too!
Any Floodman updates?
Quoting Grothar:


Must be a good movie on.

my pay tv has dropped out......grrrrrrr
Quoting Dakster:
Any Floodman updates?

Go here for Flood updates
thanks storm looks like system forming right on cue
Quoting AussieStorm:

Go here for Flood updates


Thanks...
614. xcool



strong storms se tex anim radar wiyh zoom on strongest cell



I am tired of rain and clouds :(




Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
come on orca already its a long wet winter ahead for ya yet
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
come on orca already its a long wet winter ahead for ya yet


We are having an "over" abundance of wetness.. heck.. the ski slopes are open already... its way beyond stupid.


So far this month.... and most of it this week

Precipitation: 179.8mm

all ya need now is an artic outflow and yer all set
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
all ya need now is an artic outflow and yer all set


Your a DM KOG if it happens... I have airmiles
if this is real, you're gonna hear a LOT more about it in coming days...so far, nothing has obviously been faked or altered. some of the email texts are astounding...

Quoting pearlandaggie:
if this is real, you're gonna hear a LOT more about it in coming days...



Oh oh...
This is going to make the blog unreadable for weeks.
Quoting Orcasystems:
I am tired of rain and clouds :(


When did you move to England?
are you going to cancun soon orca
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
are you going to cancun soon orca


PV this year... and taking ALL the rugrats
Quoting PcolaDan:


When did you move to England?


I am glad I don't live 20 miles in either direction of Victoria... they got twice as much
Quoting xcool:





thanks. seems like the northeast will get wind and rain but no real cold air.
Quoting Orcasystems:


PV this year... and taking ALL the rugrats
i see a artic outflow in the near future so i hope its within next seven days that you are going
622. did you look at it? oh, my!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i see a artic outflow in the near future so i hope its within next seven days that you are going


Think
You're just bragging aren't ya Orca. How about sharing some of that wet stuff and shove it down the coast for a bit. The Sierra is in need.
632. i always like looking at your pictures. it's pretty neat seeing the Coasties heading your way in the Mona Passage :)
i was reading somewhere that theres a big sale for duck boots in victoria this week too hope ya got yours orca
Quoting msphar:
You're just bragging aren't ya Orca. How about sharing some of that wet stuff and shove it down the coast for a bit. The Sierra is in need.


I was thinking of stuffing some of this wet stuff somewhere :)

WIND WARNING: Greater Victoria Issued at 3:41 PM PST THURSDAY 19 NOVEMBER 2009

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 50 TO 70 KM/H TO DEVELOP OVER WEST VANCOUVER ISLAND AND WEST FRASER VALLEY. THIS IS A WARNING THAT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.

AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL BRING RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT TO METRO VANCOUVER, FRASER VALLEY AND HOWE SOUND. AN ADDITIONAL 20 TO 50 MM OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR METRO VANCOUVER AND FRASER VALLEY, AND HOWE SOUND BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE WHISTLER CAN EXPECT 15 TO 25 CM OF SNOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, THE LOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 50 TO 70 KM/H TO WEST VANCOUVER ISLAND GREATER VICTORIA THE SOUTHERN GULF ISLANDS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FRASER VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE BRITISH COLUMBIA INTERIOR.
621: That could get really ugly...true or false, I guess it already has, really
621: That could get really ugly...true or false, I guess it already has, really
Dang, doubled and no modify. Sometimes the boysenberry works here fine...sometimes not fine.
Quoting NRAamy:


Jerry's out of surgery! All the hippies rejoice!!!!!!!!!

:)

i tell ya but this here is off-topic
Corpus Christi Bay Area (Ingleside)

Surface low/trough forming along Texas coastal Bend. 3.02 inches since 1700 local.
ok how in the world storm got my comment cause that post had been removed a hrs ago today
Evening, all...been a long day and a difficult evening, but Flood is finally resting comfortably. Updates can now be found here:

Link

Thank you all for your kindness and support!!
I'm know I'm a bit behind, but had to reinstall windows, what exactly happened to flood, i've been offline for 2 weeks now (failed HD and accidently stepped onto my only copy of XP)
No comments in 20 minutes..

Why guys an gals?

Go Dolphins from South Miami, my ws went down 5 weeks ago and I am having probs with getting it back online..please wumail me to help!! Appreciated!


Is any one having trouble looking at location forecast? Such as Virgini Beach VA or Corpus Chisti Tx. When I try to type in Corpus Christi TX it is blank with Corpus Christi WEER TEXAS...help
RE Post 640 - Lighten up, Francis. Ain't much else to be talking about.
Quoting EtexJC:
what exactly happened to flood, i've been offline


See post right above yours with link to another blog for these updates. Therein you shall find your answer.
Quoting Greyelf:
RE Post 640 - Lighten up, Francis. Ain't much else to be talking about.

well there isn't anything to really talk about i saw that pic and it was off topic for not being weather related
Quoting Greyelf:


See post right above yours with link to another blog for these updates. Therein you shall find your answer.

Yeah that's bad, i totally forgot to backtrack the comments, i need to re-educate myself on the net, one week is tooooo long, thanks
651. xcool
drinking crow and eating beer. anyone else?

ida just will not die, I see red convection.

Pearlandaggie 633 - Just saw your note. Been off chasing that bombshell at WattsUP that you slid in just prior - what a turn of events.

Yeah, being boarded by the Coasties was a real pleasure. We had been out of the country for several weeks. To be run down by a Cutter (a ship of war as they claimed) was just a great welcome back for this old retiree! After having to bribe our way out of the DR where graft is a way of life, it truly was a real special event in an otherwise uneventful passage. Note how flat the water was.
654. IKE
Cold-air moving into the east and SE USA by Turkey day and Friday....

6Z GFS @ 174 hours...

Good Morning, Ike
656. IKE
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning, Ike


Morning.

Looking at long-range models and reading what Accuweather says, the winter of 2009 will be approaching soon....

Cold in the east...coming up.
657. IKE
258 hours....
12 minutes....and it's officially over....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
cooler weather= probally why the snook have been biting this fall still shorts and tea shirt weather e cent. florida
When and where are the ice storms going to hit?
Gov. Dave Heineman Signs Disaster Declaration
Lincoln
Gov. Dave Heineman has signed a state disaster declaration to help in the recovery process after this week's severe winter storm in Southeast Nebraska.
Posted: 6:54 PM Nov 19, 2009
Reporter: KOLNKGIN
Email Address: desk@1011now.com

Gov. Dave Heineman has signed a state disaster declaration to help in the recovery process after this week's severe winter storm in Southeast Nebraska.

The storm produced high winds and heavy wet snow in Gage, Jefferson, Nemaha, Pawnee, Richardson, and Thayer Counties.

Preliminary damage estimates from the Nebraska Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) total more than $3 million.

NEMA Assistant Director Al Berndt says "high winds and heavy snow caused power lines to fall and power poles to break, along with significant damage to area roads and trees. The extent of the damage means this will likely be a long-term process for these counties. We will work closely with local agencies to help move the recovery along.
A disaster declaration makes state resources available to help with recovery in storm damaged areas. NEMA officials continue to work with local and county emergency managers to assess the scope of damage, and will coordinate with the Federal Emergency Management Agency to determine whether thresholds for federal assistance have been met."
Posted on: Thursday, November 19, 2009

Kauai rains prompt disaster declaration
Mayor says Hanalei Valley farmers most affected by storm

Advertiser Staff

Kaua'i Mayor Bernard Carvalho Jr. yesterday issued a disaster declaration following last weekend's damaging rains and flooding.
The declaration authorizes the mayor to spend county money "for public purposes during any state of emergency or disaster."

"The ongoing effects of this disaster have caused economic loss and hardships particularly to the farmers in Hanalei Valley," the declaration said.

The disaster declaration is effective through Friday, with the possibility of an extension.

Kaua'i, which received the brunt of last weekend's torrential rains, was hit with everything from flooding to landslides, evacuated homes to closed roads and bridges, and even a dead cow that washed up on Lydgate Beach.

Carvalho on Saturday authorized Parks and Recreations personnel to open the Kílauea Neighborhood Center to use as an emergency shelter due to flooding. Seventeen people in Hanalei Valley were evacuated, the Hanalei Bridge was shut down and water spilled over the banks of the Hanalei River.

The National Weather Service said the Hanalei River area saw 15-plus inches of rain in 12 hours Saturday.
LOL Storm looks like the AO is set to bomb out end of the month. Could be my first real rou8nd of winter weather. That last big dip was around my wedding when we got snow =) A white wedding (dont start with the billy idol references) was a nice surprise.

Whats your thoughts around that time? I know some long ranges shoot a munch of gales up the seaboard but that far out seems kinda sketchy to believe.
Quoting leftovers:
cooler weather= probally why the snook have been biting this fall still shorts and tea shirt weather e cent. florida


Where u at leftovers?

I got a 31 inch keeper on the flat just north of the inlet this week.
Gotcha Storm. I know how track plays with the gales. Amazing what 50 miles will do. Either get have to dig ourselves out or put the waders on LOL

Appears that with the NAO and AO going south for the winter we can be seeing prolonged cold spells. I can't wait =) 60s in November is not my cup of tea.
669. P451
Remnant Ida'Easter still chugging easterly. Models hint at the system deepening and hitting the Azores.

12HR WV Loop

670. beell

Re the WATTSUP

Lets pretend that this centers around the World Metrological Organization's recommendation of using a 30 year period for the "estimation of climatic variables characterizing the current climate".

The current period is 1961-1990. It will be a while until we have a new 30 yr standard (1991-2020) to compare the temps against. Maybe the last ten years data does not support the conclusions reached using the previous 30 yr yardstick.

Also interesting to note: "An unknown person put postings on some climate skeptic websites that advertsied an FTP file on a Russian FTP server..."

Ran across this link which sparked a quirky thought:
DETECTION OF CHANGES IN CLIMATE STATE, CLIMATE
VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE EXTREMITY
Gruza G., Rankova E., Institute for Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE), Russia

Seems the big huge country (THINK HUGE) we used to call Russia was late-starter in gathering
accurate data. Some hiccups along the way also. Across this vast expanse of climate(s) and area. If I was a conspiracy theorist, I would immediately assume that there is a huge hole in the '61-'90 data for the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Call off Copenhagen, start all over again...

"No! No, that simply vill not do! Ve muust adjust ze trend!"

Que the Twilight Zone Theme...
the water surrounding kauai is dark red because there has been so much runoff bad times on the garden island
I LIKE 60's in November! Pls. feel free to send it this way.
673. P451
Developing nor'easter.

Quoting P451:
Developing nor'easter.



Looks to be a nasty one. Hopefully it drags a tail through the lower peninsula, need some rain down here. Seems it's dipping a little further south than what was modeled.
676. IKE
New York, New York....

"LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE OPEN...SLOWER AND SUPPRESSED
COASTAL LOW SOLUTION FOR SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT. IN ANY CASE...WITH
GOOD EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...RAIN STILL
APPEARS LIKELY FROM LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...POSSIBLY INTO MON
NIGHT-TUE."
What do you expect to become of that explosion of water vapor along the Texas coast? I see more rain for Atlanta. Thoughts?
678. IKE
Quoting HurricaneNewbie:
What do you expect to become of that explosion of water vapor along the Texas coast? I see more rain for Atlanta. Thoughts?


It's in the forecast....

"Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Occasional showers. Low around 48. East wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 56. East wind between 5 and 10 mph."
Quoting P451:
Developing nor'easter.



A nor'easter in the GOM? Surely you jest...
Quoting IKE:


It's in the forecast....

"Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Occasional showers. Low around 48. East wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 56. East wind between 5 and 10 mph."

Another wet W/E. Oh well grandsons 1st B'day is going to be a wet one.
On a different note, Flood should be waking up to the shift change vital sign check.
682. IKE
Quoting HurricaneNewbie:

Another wet W/E. Oh well grandsons 1st B'day is going to be a wet one.


We need some rain here in the Florida panhandle. Looks like one-inch+ with the gulf low.
Quoting HurricaneNewbie:

Another wet W/E. Oh well grandsons 1st B'day is going to be a wet one.

Luckily, he won't care. All he needs is love and fun. You might need these post-birthday cake, though!

Include in Disaster Clean-up Kit
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Luckily, he won't care. All he needs is love and fun. You might need these post-birthday cake, though!

Include in Disaster Clean-up Kit

I am sure those would help.He is my 4th. Grandkids are the best.
IA=Individual Assistance
PA=Public Assistance
Good Lord, the NW WINDS!

National Situation Update: Friday, November 20, 2009
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
Significant National Weather

West
A strong cold front will move into the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest today. The Oregon headlands will see wind gusts up to 80 mph while the ridge tops of the Sierras will see gusts up to 125 mph. Rain is expected from Washington to the northern San Joaquin Valley of Central California. An additional 6 to 8 inches of rain is forecast in the Olympic Peninsula while the rest of western Washington through the San Francisco Bay area may see rain totals of an inch or more. The Cascades and the northern half of the Sierra Nevada will see heavy snow and gusty winds; the strong winds will reach as far east as Idaho, Nevada and Utah. The storm will weaken on Saturday as it moves eastward through the Great Basin to the northern and central Rockies and mountain snow and gusty winds are expected. A second cold front will arrive Saturday night into Sunday, bringing more rain and snow from Washington, Oregon, and northern California to western sections of Montana and Wyoming.
A third cold front will move into Washington and Oregon early next week.

South
Thunderstorms with some very heavy rain is expected later today or tonight for parts of southeast Texas; rainfall totals may reach 5 to 8 inches with some locally heavier amounts which may cause some flooding. Lighter rain is expected northward into eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas and Louisiana.
On Saturday the rain will move northwards into the lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast as it tapers off in Texas and the Gulf region may see rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches. On Sunday the rain will move into the western portions of Virginia and North Carolina as the rain tapers off in the Southeast, leaving only occasional showers in the region. Northern Florida may see a few thunderstorms on Sunday.

Northeast
As a storm system moves up through the Great Lakes into Canada, the Northeast will see some scattered rain today. The rain will be mostly in New York and New England, with a few showers possible into northern Pennsylvania and New Jersey; areas closer to Canada will see the most rain with rainfall totals from one half to one inch. By Sunday night into Monday the rain will move northwards with the heaviest rain expected from the mid-Atlantic coast to southern New England.

Midwest
The Midwest will be dry today except for a few showers around the Great Lakes. The region will remain dry through Sunday when light showers are possible from western Lake Superior to Kansas as well as a few showers moving southward toward the Ohio River. (NOAA’s National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday afternoon.
Western Pacific
No activity threatening United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Severe Weather PDAs
Nor’easter created by Tropical Storm Ida November 13-14:
New Jersey:
• IA and PA PDAs continue in Atlantic and Cape May and Ocean counties. PDAs in Monmouth, Cumberland, Middlesex and Burlington have yet to be scheduled.
Virginia:
• IA PDAs that began November 16 in Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Newport News, Chesapeake, Poquoson, and Hampton have been completed.
• PA PDAs continue in Norfolk, Hampton, Virginia Beach, and Newport News.
Delaware:
• PA PDAs continue in Kent and Sussex counties.
Alabama:
• PA PDAs continue in Mobile and Baldwin Counties.
North Carolina:
• PA PDAs for Dare, Hyde and Currituck Counties are scheduled to begin November 23.
Storms created by Tropical Storm Ida on October 29, 2009:
Louisiana
• IA and PA PDAs continue in Bossier, Caddo and Webster Parishes.

Wildfire Update

Note: Fire season is coming to an end - the National Interagency Coordination Center will issue reports only on Fridays unless there is significant activity.
• National Preparedness Level: 1
• National Fire Activity as of Friday, November 13, 2009
• Initial attack activity: Light (108 new fires)
• New large fires: 1
• Large fires contained: 1
• Uncontained large fires: 0
• States affected: AZ and MO (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

On November 19, 2009 the Governor of Arkansas requested a Major Disaster Declaration due to severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding beginning October 29, 2009 and continuing. The Governor is requesting Public Assistance, including direct Federal assistance, for 37 Counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide. (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Friday, 20-Nov-2009 07:47:46 EST


AOI/XX/XL
MARK (NEAR)
28N/96W
What an unNovemberlike morning I woke up to,upper 50's this morning with torrential downpours.I'ts been well above normal this month,but have a feeling it will change end of month and start of December.
yes we will ne expect first snow next weekend for lower lakes first week of dec acc.snows with areas of heavy acc by week 2 dec we too have been warmer than normal but thats all gonna change in 6 days from now
689. IKE
@ #670

Forgive my naivete, but I just did a bunch of reading about this CRU hack thing from multiple sources and actually read some of the leaked emails, etc...

IFthis is found to all be true, it looks like there might be some cover up to keep facilitating the GW concerns.

But, and here's where I don't know about how things work in the grand scheme of professional climatology agencies\groups... This isn't the ONLY place that has shown GW data, or is it? Are they the lead or major governing authority on this information for the world or simply 1 of many?

Sorry everyone... this is intriguing to me, and I just don't understand how all of the pieces to the puzzle fit together. It seems like this is HUGE news, but maybe it's next to nothing...
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,662092,00.html

Title:Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Seems a gulf low is immanent, all models develop this feature. (Non-Tropical)

Bring on the rain.

How strong will the winds be in Lower AL.?
690. I agree, and I'm so glad someone else said this first, and better, than I would have.

I feel like I came in to the middle of a conversation, and someone needs to bring me up to speed...preferably in layperson's language (not dumbed down, but not in specialized jargon, either).
Whats the forecast for the Gators game?
695. IKE
Quoting stormsurge39:
How strong will the winds be in Lower AL.?


Mobile,AL. forecast...

"Saturday: Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. High near 66. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 52. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%."
696. IKE
Quoting holynova:
Whats the forecast for the Gators game?


Gainesville, FL......

"Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. East wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Saturday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 61. Southeast wind around 5 mph."
Quoting AussieStorm:


Bourke Airport, NW NSW....111.6°F
My temp here in Sydney...101.3°F

Almost 2am and its 29.4C(84.6F) 35% humidity
Buoy 60 NM S of Freeport has been gusting to near 50mph with sustained winds of 35-40mph. Tight circulation is noted on long range 88D images out of HGX and CRP.

Impressive winds being reported off the coast with some of the platforms gusting to over 60mph. Winds gusted to 40mph at Eagle Point this morning and near 40mph at Freeport.
Big storm heading for the east
Circulation east of Corpus, south of Galveston

Quoting FSUCOOPman:
@ #670

Forgive my naivete, but I just did a bunch of reading about this CRU hack thing from multiple sources and actually read some of the leaked emails, etc...

IFthis is found to all be true, it looks like there might be some cover up to keep facilitating the GW concerns.

But, and here's where I don't know about how things work in the grand scheme of professional climatology agencies\groups... This isn't the ONLY place that has shown GW data, or is it? Are they the lead or major governing authority on this information for the world or simply 1 of many?

Sorry everyone... this is intriguing to me, and I just don't understand how all of the pieces to the puzzle fit together. It seems like this is HUGE news, but maybe it's next to nothing...


Well, the emails I saw in a quick look at a couple of sites gives the impression of data manipulation and more concern about the political and public appearance of data and graphs than the science of the data itself. And telling BBC who they want to be reporting because the other guy was too critical?

The players and said data are the literal backbone of the IPCC. These are the long term temperature data sets, using proxies, that show recent warming being quantitatively beyond anything in recent geological history and also changing faster than any historical period. CRU is one of many...now...but is also a source of very many of the more extreme data analyses and predictions. A big loss of credibility there, well, that would tough for the believers.

Even for them to (now) publicly admit that they/we do not know exactly why the climate has done what is has for the last 10 years, alone, only empowers those of us that think the climate-change do-something-now crowd is a little arrogant in claiming we know all there is about natural climate forcing, when clearly (to myself, anyway) that is not the case.
Morning everyone.....LOOK like my NorEaster is developing.....OUCH just in time for the Thanksgiving rush. Won't this be interesting.
Quoting IKE:


Gainesville, FL......

"Saturday: A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. East wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Saturday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 61. Southeast wind around 5 mph."
Thank you.
Hey,Tampa,wheres this thing heading,not much mention of anything up here.
Slashing records in the east

Much of New South Wales remained 10C(50F) to 20C(68F) above their November average today with records being reigned in across the state.

The hottest today was felt through the Upper Western where Wanaaring and Brewarrina reached 14C(57F) above average at 46C(114.8F), making it their hottest November day on record.

Other November records broken through the state were at Cobar, Condobolin, Forbes and Trangie all reaching a toasty 45 degrees. Dubbo and Dunedoo also broke records reaching 43 degrees, while Scone and West Wyalong broke their November records at 42C(107.6F).

On the ranges, Mudgee also set a new November record reaching 41C(105.8F) and Bathurst at 39C(102.2F).

Around Sydney inland areas reached into the lower 40C's(104F's) while a seabreeze kept coastal areas a bit cooler. Penrith and Campbelltown both reach 42C(107.6F), a temperature not felt in November for five years. The city still rose nine degrees above average to 33C(91.4F) before that seabreeze kicked in.

The hot air is being funneled ahead of a cooler change that is making its way across the south. Melbourne saw temperatures drop 12C(53.6F) in just one hour as the change whipped through this afternoon.

- Weatherzone
Here is some great loops you can zoom in on!
NWS NOLA discussion did say most of the lightning would likely stay offshore once the system pulled away from the lower TX coast...so far, right on.

I would personally prefer to not be in a boat out there...

Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning everyone.....LOOK like my NorEaster is developing.....OUCH just in time for the Thanksgiving rush. Won't this be interesting.


Your NorEaster? I wanna buy one of those :)

70-80 knots of shear over the gulf according to CIMSS. Nice.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Hey,Tampa,wheres this thing heading,not much mention of anything up here.




They might want to start talking about it.....its coming right at you.....the GFS has been on top of this for a few days now.....here was my update from 11-17 also go to the Winter Weather update section and look at your temperature forecast...i have not looked at it yet.....rain or snow but its coming at you Bullseye!
It looks like we're starting to resemble an El Niño pattern with the increasing subtropical jet stream energy coming from Mexico and
the Pacific Ocean. The low in the Gulf for this weekend is a result of one of these shortwaves moving along the subtropical jet. There are also hints that a low or weak wave could form in the southern Gulf in about 7-9 days which is also a sign of an El Niño-like pattern trying to set up.

Even in solid El Niño years, it all depends on exactly where the jet stream and storm track sets up.In terms of weather across southeast florida small changes can affect our weather from warm and dry to cool and wet. In 2006-2007, a moderate El Niño, we ended up with a warm and dry winter for the most part. Going with the long-term trends, it's hard to go against the cooler and wetter scenario, but sometimes it doesn't work out that way.

adrian
Looks like the storm is developing on cue as what the models projected. Thought with a GOM storm that severe weather would be an issue here in Florida, but models have the storm weak enough to just cause a few showers instead.
Quoting reedzone:
Looks like the storm is developing on cue as what the models projected. Thought with a GOM storm that severe weather would be an issue here in Florida, but models have the storm weak enough to just cause a few showers instead.


No way that is going to happen....i little more than a few showers is coming ......look at the loops...
713. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:


Well, the emails I saw in a quick look at a couple of sites gives the impression of data manipulation and more concern about the political and public appearance of data and graphs than the science of the data itself. And telling BBC who they want to be reporting because the other guy was too critical?

The players and said data are the literal backbone of the IPCC. These are the long term temperature data sets, using proxies, that show recent warming being quantitatively beyond anything in recent geological history and also changing faster than any historical period. CRU is one of many...now...but is also a source of very many of the more extreme data analyses and predictions. A big loss of credibility there, well, that would tough for the believers.

Even for them to (now) publicly admit that they/we do not know exactly why the climate has done what is has for the last 10 years, alone, only empowers those of us that think the climate-change do-something-now crowd is a little arrogant in claiming we know all there is about natural climate forcing, when clearly (to myself, anyway) that is not the case.


I'll remain skeptical that this little bit of net news is legitimate. Same skepticism reserved for the science of climate change. All of it lol!


Little more than showers i would say...here is my Winter Weather section for those that need.
Quoting hurricane23:
It looks like we're starting to resemble an El Niño pattern with the increasing subtropical jet stream energy coming from Mexico and
the Pacific Ocean. The low in the Gulf for this weekend is a result of one of these shortwaves moving along the subtropical jet. There are also hints that a low or weak wave could form in the southern Gulf in about 7-9 days which is also a sign of an El Niño-like pattern trying to set up.

Even in solid El Niño years, it all depends on exactly where the jet stream and storm track sets up.In terms of weather across southeast florida small changes can affect our weather from warm and dry to cool and wet. In 2006-2007, a moderate El Niño, we ended up with a warm and dry winter for the most part. Going with the long-term trends, it's hard to go against the cooler and wetter scenario, but sometimes it doesn't work out that way.

adrian


Hey "killer," good to see you.
701. Atmo, thank you.

Saw a news story last night, and just did a quick google search of "ice core." Read several items by dedicated, credentialed scientists not looking for an axe to grind...and yet, research shows 6 degrees warmer and higher sea levels 125,000 years ago TO most acceleration in glacier ice melting (Mt. Kilimanjaro sp?) is last 30 years.

So, how to put 2 plus 2 together and not get 5?

Questions, will earth have repeat of conditions 125,000 years ago... and in approximately how many years?
Buoy 60 NM S of Freeport has been gusting to near 50mph with sustained winds of 35-40mph. Tight circulation is noted on long range 88D images out of HGX and CRP.

Impressive winds being reported off the coast with some of the platforms gusting to over 60mph. Winds gusted to 40mph at Eagle Point this morning and near 40mph at Freeport.
Quoting beell:


I'll remain skeptical that this little bit of net news is legitimate. Same skepticism reserved for the science of climate change. All of it lol!

Oh, yeah. Me, too.
I am skeptical of...well anyone and everything to some degree. Moreso with anything involving this particular subject (in either direction).
Quoting TampaSpin:




They might want to start talking about it.....its coming right at you.....the GFS has been on top of this for a few days now.....here was my update from 11-17 also go to the Winter Weather update section and look at your temperature forecast...i have not looked at it yet.....rain or snow but its coming at you Bullseye!

Yep. The local NWS office here in Houston has been all over the development of this system for the past week. And during the past week, it has been consistently forecast to move along the coast and eventually make it off the east coast, and become a nor'easter. The biggest variable in the forecast so far is the intensity and exact timing.


Looks like Snow from what i tell in the Northeast.....with this NorEaster..it will depend on the track as how far inland or off the coast this is.
don't see much cold air with this system,so not too worried about snow,maybe in northern new england,but still looks like a sizable storm,should be fun to watch this come together.


Here is the 72hr forecast for the NWS...


AOI non tropical low
MARK
28N/94W
724. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:

Oh, yeah. Me, too.
I am skeptical of...well anyone and everything to some degree. Moreso with anything involving this particular subject (in either direction).


I hear ya. Probably should correct that to read the "politics/economics of climate change".

Some of us may fear a shift in the balance of power more than a shift in the balance of climate. Certainly fosters an atmosphere ripe for fanatics and denialist's alike!
Seems to be starting out further south than modeled.

This time of year,with the warm ocean near by,needs a lot of cold air to get any snow out of it
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
most acceleration in glacier ice melting (Mt. Kilimanjaro sp?) is last 30 years.

Bad example. Kilimanjaro doesn't melt and has nothing at all to do with temperature. Has more to do with deforestation in recent times, but has been on the decline for at least 100s of years. All glaciers that have a tenuous existence and are in a location that allows for a very slow decline (in geological terms) have been declining since the last ice age. That is what they do in the interglacial periods.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Questions, will earth have repeat of conditions 125,000 years ago... and in approximately how many years?

Eventually, yes. When? You notice how round that 125,000 number is and that we didn't make it 125,001 years ago on Jan 1? Is a rough estimate using ice cores, where the age of layers are also an estimate. The temporal resolution of ice cores is so coarse, determining the variability associated with a 1-year, 10-year, 30-year, or even 100-year period is impossible. (Same goes for marrying surface obs or 30 years of satellite data on the scale of hours, days, months, or single years to the ice core results).
I don't think some models especially the ones that forecast the Precp is on top of it yet...that should change today. These models update all day and on my Winter Weather site and stay current if anyone needs to check back later.



Quoting NEwxguy:
This time of year,with the warm ocean near by,needs a lot of cold air to get any snow out of it


Your correct about the water temps.....but the backside as it goes by is when the snow usually will occur this time of year....rain then snow which you already know and have seen it many times by living there.
727. re: Eventually, yes. LOL! Thanks for answering my earnest, albeit ignoramus questions.

Deforestation, now that is troubling, and mostly (all?) human-caused. But-- something that can be repaired, maybe not a total fix, but just won't accept gloom and doomsayers. Pottery mentioned a successful project in his corner of the world, only costs 20 cents a tree.

Hey, speaking of Pottery, where IS his rum-soaked, spouse-missing Diary? I look forward to installments!
732. beell
repost pearland!
New Blog
For any Travelers flying i have a graphic on my home page that show flight delays if you right click and open up a new window it pops into the Federal Aviation for up to the second info on flights...its an amazing site.
Quoting IKE:
Cold-air moving into the east and SE USA by Turkey day and Friday....

6Z GFS @ 174 hours...


Are my eyes decieving me? 32 degree mark down to the gulf coast but not in upstate new york? Insane.
might be crazy but it seems like shear is weakening over x ida.

someone else said that models support it deepening and hitting the azores. This storm will just not die.